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From Dent to RN RE: 1972 U.S. Senate races. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972
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7
35
2/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dent to RN RE: 1972 U.S. Senate
races. 13 pgs.
Friday, July 02, 2010
Page 1 of 1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
ASD
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Senate Races
Since the last report, our potential seems to have slipped
in Virginia and Kentucky and picked up in New Mexico.
At present, the Senate lineup is 55-45 (Byrd as a Demo-
crat). If we win 19 of the 33 seats up and Byrd comes
over, we can still start 1973 with a net gain of one, as
reported last time.
Roudebush has won a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that he
can get a recount in 11 counties on his 1970 loss to Hartke
by 4,283 votes. Thus, there is a small chance we could
get another seat if the Senate buys the recount results.
GOP Sure (10) -- Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, New Jersey, Texas,
Massachusetts, Tennessee, Illinois, South Carolina and
Wyoming.
GOP Possible (9) -- Nebraska, Maine, Colorado, Delaware,
Kansas, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico and Rhode Island.
Democrat Sure (6) -- Alabama, Mississippi, West Virginia,
Minnesota, Louisiana and Arkansas.
Democrat Possible (8) -- South Dakota, Oklahoma, Georgia,
North Carolina, New Hampshire, Montana, Virginia and
Kentucky.
page 2
ALASKA: GOP Sure, Stevens (R)
There has been no appreciable change in the Stevens race.
He should win. There still remains the possibility of a
challenge from C. R. Lewis, a Bircher. Lewis has been
a leading vote-getter in Anchorage for the State Senate.
Democrat opposition will come from U.S. Representative
Nick Begich, or Speaker Gene Guess. Guess is very well
liked and has never lost an election, but has never run
statewide. Begich could make it a tight race, but probably
wants to wait for Gravel's seat in 1974.
The pipeline is still the most critical issue, though the
Native Land Claims Act has helped (some conservatives
are upset).
IDAHO: GOP Sure, Jordan (R)
The situation has not appreciably changed. Jordan has an-
nounced his retirement. Congressman Jim McClure appears
way out front. A poll taken last fall indicated that McClure,
Congressman Hansen (won't run) and former Governor Smylie
in that order, were favored for the Senate seat. George
Hansen has resigned his position at USDA to run, but has not
announced. Smylie is showing some activity but with little
apparent success. Bill Bergeson, a political unknown from
Pocatello, has announced, as has Glen Wegner, of Finch's
staff. Samuelson is definitely not a candidate. He hopes to
run against Church in 1974.
The best contender likely to emerge among the Democrats is
W. E. "Bud" Davis, President of Idaho State University.
Edward Williams, AA to Governor Andrus, has decided to
run for McClure's House seat. Attorney General Tony Park
and State Legislator Vernon Ravenscroft are also interested
in the Senate race. McClure should win.
page 3
IOWA: GOP Sure, Miller (R)
Miller is looking good. He currently has no primary oppo-
sition. The Cherokee Times recently conducted two polls,
one among high school seniors and the other among 3% of
the adult population in Cherokee County. Miller received
71% from the students and 69% from the adults.
Farm income is up (cattle and hog prices) and there appears
to be no farm problem.
A potential threat, Stan Culver, announced for re-election
to his House seat. Democrats have been polling and the
results look bad for them. They may have to draft a candi-
date, unless FCC Bad Guy Nick Johnson goes home to run.
NEW JERSEY: GOP Sure, Case (R)
Case is considered unbeatable, and vulnerable only in a GOP
primary. Sandman has announced he is considering a chal-
lenge to Case unless Case becomes a good Republican by
supporting the President and does not push the state income
tax in a Presidential year.
Sandman will be having a $50 dinner on March 11. That is
the outside date for him to announce his decision. He has
implied White House support, but got shot down on this by us.
Case is grateful.
The Democrats have only one announced candidate, Pat
McGahan, of Atlantic County. If the Governor comes out,
he will support Case. Adrian "Bud" Foley, of Governor
Hughes' law office, has declined to run. An AP sampling
is reputed to show Case has the bulk of the vote.
TEXAS: GOP Sure, Tower (R)
Tower is unopposed in the primaries and the outlook is good.
The Democrats have three candidates seeking the nomination,
page 4
Ralph Yarborough, Barefoot Sanders and Hugh Wilson, a
Port Arthur laboratory technician. Tower looks good in
the polls taken late last year. The busing issue remains
a drag on Tower and the state of the economy may be a
significant influence on the outcome. Tower's finances
are in good shape.
TENNESSEE: GOP Sure, Baker (R)
Baker appears to be doing well. There is no serious
primary contender. The Executive Committee of the State
GOP has endorsed Baker. The Democrats are badly split.
Congressman Ray Blanton should be the Democratic con-
tender. Busing remains a problem, but it is not as volatile
as last fall. The President is looking increasingly better.
MASSACHUSETTS: GOP Sure, Brooke (R)
Brooke is in a very strong position. He is strong in the
polls and has raised a good portion of his budget ($200, 000
from one dinner). In polls measuring acceptability, Brooke
constantly rates over 70% approval and never above 10% dis-
approval. No primary opposition has as yet developed, and
there is little likelihood of a third party entry. No Demo-
crat of any stature has come forward. The Democrat
Speaker, David Bartley, is mentioned but he has not an-
nounced.
ILLINOIS: GOP Sure, Percy (R)
Percy seems to be in very good shape. It is part of their
strategy to keep a low profile and concentrate on organizing
and building a foundation until June. Pucinski is a formidable
opponent with excellent name identity. He has the pro forma
endorsement of the AFL-CIO (COPE) state organization.
Percy, however, got an endorsement from the Chicago UAW,
and will have the tacit support of local union chapters. There
have been no polls taken. Percy should win, but Pucinski's
campaigning potential is of some concern.
page 5
RHODE ISLAND: GOP Possible, Pell (D)
Pell is running 2-1 to 3-1 behind Chafee, depending on
which poll you use, but the polls may be questionable.
The "Chafee '72 Committee" is organized and has nearly
completed the state organization. Some 5, 000 bumper
stickers were mailed out the second week in February.
Chafee will have no serious primary contention. His
chief worry is money. It will be closer than some think,
but we should get a pickup here.
SOUTH CAROLINA: GOP Sure, Thurmond (R)
Thurmond is unbeatable, but State Senator Nick Ziegler is
being made to run. Thurmond moved from a 2-point deficit
a year ago to a 26-point lead over ex-Governor McNair,
who won't run.
WYOMING: GOP Sure, Hansen (R)
Hansen continues to look very good. No primary opposition
has emerged. Among the Democrats, two Casper lawyers
are talking about running but have not announced. Mayne
Miller and Jim Fagan have little political experience and
would not represent much of a threat. Roncalio will prob-
ably seek re-election to his own House seat.
The Executive Order restricting the use on Federal lands
of chemical toxicants issued February 8, 1972, is bringing
howls here and in other Western states. Morton has been
told.
COLORADO: GOP Possible, Allott (R)
The Allott picture is beginning to brighten. There is no
primary opposition. Frank Evans is the most formidable
opposition that could arise. Evans, however, probably
will not challenge Allott unless he is adversely redistricted.
page 6
That is highly unlikely. There are several other probable
weaker challengers. Allott's greatest handicap is his age
(65). Because of Allott's position of leadership and the
relatively small money involved in a Colorado campaign,
the National Democrats can be expected to target this race.
OREGON: GOP Possible, Hatfield (R)
Several months ago, Hatfield was losing in the polls to
Governor Tom McCall, Representative Wendell Wyatt, or
Representative Edith Green, but now none of them is running.
Green and Wyatt have announced for re-election. It is too
late for McCall to put together a primary challenge now.
He has talked of running as an independent, but the State
Chairman publicly told McCall that if he wanted Republican
support he would have to do it as a Republican. The Demo-
crat challenger will be Wayne Morse. Morse has a credi-
bility problem about his age. If McCall stays out, Hatfield
should retain his seat. If McCall comes out as an inde-
pendent (which is unlikely), things could be bad.
DELAWARE: GOP Possible, Boggs (R)
Boggs should retain his seat. He has no primary opposition.
Boggs! chances would be better were the party not divided.
There are two possible Democrat contenders. Ex-Governor
Elbert Carvel is interested - as is 29-year old County Council-
man Joe Belden, of Wilmington.
MICHIGAN: GOP Possible, Griffin (R)
Griffin's chances are improving daily. There will be no
primary opposition. There will, however, be third and
fourth party candidates. Ex-State Senator Robert Huber and
ex-Demo Chairman Zolten Farency. State GOP officials feel
the Democrats will be hurt more than the Republicans by this.
page 7
The Democrats have four primary contenders. The
present front-runner is Attorney General Frank Kelley.
He would make the toughest opposition. Others are
State Board of Education Member Marilyn Kelly (young
and a real looker former Detroit Mayor Jerome
Cavenaugh; and the first Black to hold statewide elected
office, Secretary of State Richard Austin. Senator
Griffin is looking better because of his stand on busing
and auto tax relief. The President is looking good.
The Detroit Free Press polled a Detroit high school in
January. The President walked away with it!
MAINE: GOP Possible, Smith (R)
Opinion remains mixed regarding the vulnerability of
Senator Smith. Her primary opponent is Robert Monks,
who has been in the state only two years and is married
into a wealthy family. He is President of Sprague Asso-
ciates, an oil and coal distribution company. The issues
revolve around Senator Smith's age (74) and health, and
the fact that Monk appears to be a newcomer trying to
purchase the election. Monk has put together an excellent
organization and is working hard. Congressman William
Hathaway will be the Democrat nominee. He is a strong
candidate and the GOP primary fight could give him a boost.
Also, if Muskie is the Democrat Presidential nominee. This
one is very much up in the air.
NEBRASKA: GOP Possible, Curtis (R)
The Curtis election is closely tied to the President's cam-
paign and national issues, especially farming. If Vietnam
and the summit meetings go well, Curtis will benefit. The
economy is in good shape. Unemployment is approximately
2. 2%. Curtis has two primary challengers, but neither is
a threat. The Democrats are in a tough primary. There
are seven contenders. The two most likely to win are State
page 8
Legislator Wayne Ziebart, and a Professor from the
University of Nebraska, Dr. Wallace Peterson. Peterson
is the Chairman of the Economics Department. No polls
have been taken. Curtis is expected to win in a close race.
KANSAS: GOP Possible, Pearson (R)
Senator Pearson will have a tough race. There will be
no primary race and the party is fairly united, but the
response of party people to Pearson is only lukewarm.
Governor Docking will be the Democrat nominee, though
he won't make an announcement until the Legislature ad-
journs in mid-March or later. Docking is the first third-
term Governor in Kansas history and as a conservative,
he is a formidable vote-getter. (If not Docking, Attorney
General Vern Miller would be strong too.) With a good
campaign, Pearson can probably win.
KENTUCKY: Democrat Possible, Cooper (R)
Cooper has announced his retirement. The only possible GOP
winner would be ex-Governor Louie Nunn, and that is question-
able. However, he is not too willing and wants some re-
assurances and financial backing from the White House. Bob
Gable is also talking about running. He was Parks Commis-
sioner under Nunn. His name identity is not good throughout
the state. Dee Huddleston, Majority Leader in the State
Senate, will probably be the Democrat nominee. He has good
name identity and has the strong backing of Democrat Governor
Ford. There is a question whether Nunn is vulnerable on
possible scandals and could hurt the Presidential race.
VIRGINIA: Democrat Possible, Spong (D)
Spong, who appeared to be a loser a year ago, is in better
shape today. He will probably have little opposition in the
primaries. The only announced GOP candidate is Rep.
William Scott, a sure loser. Joel Broyhill doesn't want to
page 9
give up his spot on Ways and Means. However, he is
trying to line up Democrat Dan Daniel to switch and unite
Byrd and GOP forces. As usual, Holton is a problem,
and Scott won't get out of the way. Jack Marsh has
refused to go. Looks like we get Daniel or Broyhill, or
we forfeit the seat. To get Daniel, Scott must get out and
Holton must assent -- two real problems.
GEORGIA: Democrat Possible, Gambrell (D)
Former Governor Ernest Vandiver has announced against
Gambrell in the Democrat primary. Vandiver is a nephew
of Senator Russell by marriage and was allegedly promised
the seat. Ex-Governor and liberal Carl Sanders may get
in too. Gambrell will probably win, but it will be close.
Lester Maddox is still a factor, but no one knows what he
will do. Most think he will wait for another run at the
Governor's office.
Fletcher Thompson will be the GOP nominee. Bo Callaway
is involved with a new business venture. Phil Campbell
thinks Thompson could win, especially if Sanders gets the
Democrat nod. Also, the President looks good and coattails
could help. Probably Gambrell will win.
MONTANA: Democrat Possible, Metcalf (D)
Metcalf is fading, but may win despite himself. His temper
and drinking are renowned throughout Montana. The only
Republicans to file are State Senator Henry Hubbard and
State Senator Fred Carl. Neither represent the dream candi-
date. Chet Huntley considered running GOP, but put his Big
Sky effort first. Attorney General Bob Woodall has announced
for re-election. Former Governor Tim Babcock is beginning
to look like the most viable potential candidate. He has some
carry-over liabilities. But, since 1968, his credibility has
increased. His business ventures may have given him some
page 10
momentum. Babcock makes an attractive candidate. He
has not announced, but is ahead of the field. The right
candidate could get Metcalf; he is vulnerable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democrat Possible, McIntyre (D)
As yet no one has announced against McIntyre. Wes Powell
says he wants to wait until after the Presidential primary.
Bob Whalen, the State Chairman, thinks Powell is becoming
reluctant. The strongest candidate would be Louis Wyman,
but he won't run. He is looking at Cotton's seat. U.S.
Attorney Dave Brock is also interested and has said he
would run against Powell if no one else did. That is un-
likely. McIntyre is in good shape at this point. Only Loeb
is taking pot shots at him in the press. Other papers are
generally supportive. McIntyre will probably retain his seat.
NEW MEXICO: GOP Possible, Anderson (D)
The Democrats have a wide open primary on their hands.
The primary candidates include Dave Norvell, the Attorney
General; Jack Daniels, ex-State Representative and candidate
for Governor; ex-Congressman Tom Morris; Jesse Kornegay,
State Treasurer with much experience in state administration.
Lt. Gov. Robert Mondargon, a Mexican-American, may
announce. He would make an attractive candidate. Jack
Daniels is favored to win. The GOP has three announced
candidates -- Pete Domenici, 1970 Governor nominee;
David Cargo; and former Lt. Gov. E. Lee Francis. Domenici
will win the GOP nod, and a poll indicates he could take the
seat in a squeaker.
NORTH CAROLINA: Democrat Possible, Jordan (D)
There are two prime contenders in the GOP primary: Jesse
Helms, a very conservative (WRAL-TV) broadcaster, and
page 11
State Rep. James C. Johnson. Among the Democrats,
Rep. Nick Galifianakis is Jordan's major opposition. The
Senator should get the nomination. With RN coattails,
we have a chance though behind now in a poll.
OKLAHOMA: Democrat Possible, Harris (D)
The Democrats are in a bitter primary fight. Congress-
man Ed Edmondson is favored to win. His toughest
opponent is State Corporation Commissioner Charles
Nesbitt. There are several other contenders.
The GOP candidate will be Dewey Bartlett. The general
election is going to be very tough, but the GOP does have
a fighting chance. Bartlett is putting together a good
organization and is working very hard. The President is
looking good and should be a help to Bartlett's chances.
Edmondson is favored.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Possible, Mundt (R)
Because of Senator Mundt's problem and farm woes, the
GOP is in trouble. They are, however, fielding five candi-
dates - three of whom have announced. Bob Hirsch, with
12 years experience in the legislature; Ken Stofferahan,
an NFO official and farmer; and Tom Reardon, a banker
with little political background. Two unannounced candidates
are Chuck Lien, a businessman with party experience, and
Gordon Midland, the State Attorney General. This will be
a very close primary. Hirsch probably has the edge, but
he must receive 35% of the vote. If a candidate fails to
receive 35%, the top two go into convention. In convention
Midland and Hirsch would be favored, but no one will make
a guess at the outcome.
Democrat Congressman Abourezk, worse than McGovern,
has announced. He will be tough to beat because of GOP
woes and he is a good politician.
page 12
ALABAMA: Democrat Sure, Sparkman (D)
The GOP has a four-way primary race between Winton
Blount, young State Rep. Bert Nettles, Jim Martin, and
Doris Callahan. This is a very close primary and the
first statewide GOP primary. It is probably between
Blount and Nettles. Sparkman has some primary oppo-
sition but is expected to have no problems. He should
retain his Senate seat.
ARKANSAS: Democrat Sure, McClellan (D)
McClellan is very much in the race, but has two announced
primary candidates - Congressman David Pryor and Ted
Boswell. Labor-backed Boswell ran for Governor in 1968
and missed by a narrow margin.
Republicans will probably not field a serious contender.
They feel that McClellan is most vulnerable in the general
election, not in the primary. They all also feel that the
"White House" will give no encouragement to anyone chal-
lenging McClellan. Chairman Charles Bernard would like
a chance at McClellan, but thinks it best to wait for Fulbright.
McClellan wins.
LOUISIANA: Democrat Sure, Ellender (D)
Senator Ellender will run. Who will oppose him in the Demo-
cratic primary is still uncertain. Gov. McKeithen is less
likely to challenge him (will probably take Presidency of LSU);
also, he has scandal problems.
Tom Stagg, the GOP Committeeman, is still very interested
and very weak, as are several other hopefuls from New Orleans.
The attitude for the President is very good.
page 13
MINNESOTA: Democrat Sure, Mondale (D)
Senator Mondale has no serious primary opposition and
is in excellent shape. Some Republicans have gone so
far as to argue that he should be allowed to run un-
opposed. The GOP, however, does have a field of
potential candidates. They include Rudy Boschwitz,
the National Committeeman; State Rep. James Ulland;
State Rep. Ed Brandt; and Arlin A. Erdahl, Secretary
of State. Mondale should retain his seat.
MISSISSIPPI: Democrat Sure, Eastland (D)
Eastland is unopposed and should retain the seat. There
is no GOP candidate except James Meredith, and the state
GOP is trying to find a way to keep him out. Ex-Lt. Gov.
Sullivan is thinking about running as a Republican.
WEST VIRGINIA: Democrat Sure, Randolph (D)
Randolph has no major opposition since Arch Moore has
filed for re-election. Ken Hechler has been redistricted
and has filed both against Randolph and for his own re-
districted seat. The GOP candidate is Mrs. Louise Leonard.
She is a State Senator and won her seat in a heavy Democrat
area. She is a viable candidate.
Tab "A" is a map showing Senate seats up for re-election
in 1972.