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From Whitaker to Ehrlichman RE: the categorization of states and whether or not RN can win their electoral votes in the 1972 election. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 8-3
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From Whitaker to Ehrlichman RE: the categorization of states and whether or not RN can win their electoral votes in the 1972 election. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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Document Description
8
3
5/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Whitaker to Ehrlichman RE: the
categorization of states and whether or not
RN can win their electoral votes in the 1972
election. 3 pgs.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Page 1 of 1
TO BE AN
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 12, 1971
By Emp E.O.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN D. EHRLICHMAN
FROM:
John C. Whitaker
9CW
Cole, Harper, Krogh, Morgan and I had one of those general discussions
this morning about what we have to do to win in 1972.
One of the conclusions we arrived at was, that on a systematic basis, we
have to figure out what "goodies" should be shoveled out to what States
under the assumption that, if the election is close, then this activity will
make the difference.
For example, a systematic study of the farm and Rocky Mountain States
should be made of what reclamation projects go and which ones do not.
On the other hand, an intensive farm study should be done in States that
we have to win that we do not normally think of as farm states, i.e., New
Jersey, which has very few farmers, but those few can make the difference.
The attached list (see Tab A) is our collective agreement in the following
categories.
A. "Must Win" to win
B. "Sure Losers" so forget about them
C. "Sure Winners" so forget about them
D. "Should Carry" states - A great deal of intenstive
effort is required. A level of intensity equal to the
"must win" states
E. "Probably will Lose" states
F. "Wallace states" we can't win if he runs, but need
intensive work for an ensurance cushion if Wallace
does not run.
Note that the election will be won if we carry A and D.
1986
1972
Electoral Votes
Electroal Votes
W-Won: L-Lost
A. Must Win
W 26
Illinois
26
W 26
Ohio
25
L 25
Texas
26
W 40
California
45
W 14
Florida
17
W 13
North Carolina
13
W 11
Tennessee
10
W 9
Kentucky
9
W 12
Missouri
12
w 17
New Jersey
17
193
200
B. Sure Losers
L 9
Washington
9
L 7
West Virginia
6
L 4
Rhode Island
4
L 14
Massachusetts
14
L 6
Arkansas
6
L 8
Connecticut
8
L 3
District of Columbia
3
51
50
C.
Sure Winners
W 5
Arizona
6
W 6
Colorado
7
W 5
Nebraska
5
w 13
This Indiana
13
W 3
Vermont
3
W 4
New Hampshire
4
36
38
Total Electoral Votes
538
Total needed to win
270 *
Total won in 1968
302
Total A & D in 1972
287 *
1968
1972
Electoral Votes
Electoral Votes
W-Won: L-Lost
D.
Should Carry
W 6
Oregon
6
W 3
Nevada
3
W 4
Idaho
4
W 3
Wyoming
3
W 4
Utah
4
W 4
Montana
4
W 4
North Dakota
3
W 4
South Dakota
4
W 7
Kansas
7
W 8
Oklahoma
8
w 9
Iowa
8
W 12
Wisconsin
11
W 12
Virginia
12
W 3
Alaska
3
W 8
South Carolina
8
w 3
Delaware
3
94
91
E.
Probably Lose
L 10
Minnesota
10
L 43
New York
41
L 10
1
Maryland
10
W 4
New Mexico
4
L 29
Pennsylvania
27
L 4
Hawaii
4
L 4
Maine
4
L 21
Michigan
21
125
121
F.
Wallace States
L 12
Georgia
12
L 10
Louisiana
10
L 10
Alabama
9
L 7
Mississippi
7
39
38