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This file contains: From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference/March 1-4." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/22/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "White House Budget/Committee for the Re- Election of the President -- Support." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference-- March 1-4." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "New Hampshire Mock Election." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "The Loyal Opposition." 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Surveys." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/9/1972 From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Bob Teeter/Campaign Polling." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Strategy." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Presidential Papers and Estate Plan." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972 From Hughes To Haldeman RE: "Proposed State Funeral Plan for President Nixon." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Vietnam Announcement Pol -- Jan 26-27." 38pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Higsby To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Polling." 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972 From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican National Convention/Use of Flag Placards." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Muskie Press Conference." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/2/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: Convention Advertising Material." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972

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WHSF: Contested, 13-4
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WHSF: Contested, 13-4
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This file contains: From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference/March 1-4." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/22/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "White House Budget/Committee for the Re- Election of the President -- Support." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference-- March 1-4." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "New Hampshire Mock Election." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "The Loyal Opposition." 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Surveys." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/9/1972 From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Bob Teeter/Campaign Polling." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Strategy." 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/8/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Presidential Papers and Estate Plan." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972 From Hughes To Haldeman RE: "Proposed State Funeral Plan for President Nixon." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Vietnam Announcement Pol -- Jan 26-27." 38pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Higsby To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Polling." 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972 From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican National Convention/Use of Flag Placards." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Muskie Press Conference." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/2/1972 From Strachan To Haldeman RE: Convention Advertising Material." 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 13 4 2/22/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference/March 1-4." 2pgs. 13 4 2/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "White House Budget/Committee for the Re- Election of the President -- Support." 1pg. 13 4 2/10/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican Leadership Conference-- March 1-4." 1pg. 13 4 2/10/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "New Hampshire Mock Election." 1pg. Friday, May 08, 2015 Page 1 of 4 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 13 4 2/10/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "The Loyal Opposition." 3pgs. 13 4 2/9/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Surveys." 2pgs. 13 4 2/8/1972 Campaign Memo From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Bob Teeter/Campaign Polling." 2pgs. 13 4 2/8/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Strategy." 2pgs. 13 4 2/7/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Presidential Papers and Estate Plan." 1pg. Friday, May 08, 2015 Page 2 of 4 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 13 4 2/4/1972 Campaign Memo From Hughes To Haldeman RE: "Proposed State Funeral Plan for President Nixon." 1pg. 13 4 2/4/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Vietnam Announcement Pol -- Jan 26-27." 38pgs. 13 4 2/7/1972 Campaign Memo From Higsby To Haldeman RE: "Campaign Polling." 4pgs. 13 4 2/3/1972 Campaign Memo From Stachan To Haldeman RE: "Republican National Convention/Use of Flag Placards." 1pg. 13 4 2/2/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: "Muskie Press Conference." 1pg. Friday, May 08, 2015 Page 3 of 4 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 13 4 2/1/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan To Haldeman RE: Convention Advertising Material." 1pg. Friday, May 08, 2015 Page 4 of 4 Presidential Materials Review Board Review on Contested Documents Collection: H. R. Haldeman Box Number: 236 Folder: Strachan Chron-HRH only February 1972 Book I Document Disposition 259 Retain Open 260 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to H2H, 2/22/72. 261 Retain Open 262 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/16/72. 263 Retain Open 264 Retain Open 265 Retain Close Invasion of Privacy Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/14/72. 266 Retain Open 267 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/10/72 268 Retain Open 269 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/10/72. 270 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/10/72. 271 Retain Open 272 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/9/72. 273 Retain Open 274 Return Private/Political Memo, Grachan to HRH. 2/8/72. 275 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/8/72. 276 Return Private/Personal Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/7/72. 277 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/4/72. 278 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan & Higby to HRH, 2/7/72. 279 Return Private/Political Memo. Strachan to HRH, 2/3/72 280 Retain Open 281 Retain Open 282 Return Private/Political Memo, Stracnan to HRH, 2/2/72. Presidential Materials Review Board Review on Contested Documents H. R. Haldeman 236 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2/1/72. Administratively Confidential February 22, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Republican Leadership Conference/March 1-4 llarry Dent called concerning a Republican Leadership Conference to be held in Washington March 1-4. Discussion with the Attorney General encouraged Dent to get "the best Administration spokesmen" at this event which will be the last mass meeting of delegate types before the Republican National Convention in August. Dent has approached Kissinger and Connally and received negative responses from their offices. Dent also approached John Scali to be moderator of one of the foreign policy discussions. Scali said he would be glad to do it, but that he has "been instructed to keep his head down and maintain low visibility". Dent asks that you grant an exception to this general rule that Scali not be an out front spokesman. Chuck Colson believes that Scali should do this event. Kissinger has no opinion as to whether Scali should or should not do this event. Recommendation: That John Scali be informed that he should attend this Republican Leadership Conference. Approve Disapprove Comment GS:1m attach THE WHITE HOUSE 2/16 WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential Redu STATE sip February 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Republican Leadership Conference--March 1-4 Harry Dent called concerning a Republican Leadership Conference to be held in Washington March 1-4. Discussion with the Attorney General encouraged Dent to get "the best Administration spokesmen" at this event which will be the last mass meeting of delegate types before the Republican National Convention in August. Dent has approached Kissinger and Connally and received negative favorable indications from their offices. Dent also responses approached John Scali to be moderator of one of the foreign policy discussions. Scali said he would be glad to do it, but that he has "been instructed to keep his head down and maintain low visibility". Dent asks that you grant an exception to this general rule that Scali not be an out- Chuck Colson believes opinion that Scali should do this event. Kissinger front spokesman. has asto whether scalishould or Recommendation: should not That John Scali be informed that he should attend this do this Republican Leadership Conference. Approve Disapprove sanger event. Comment Administratively Confidential February 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: White House Budget/ Committee for the Re-Election of the President -- Support You have Bruce Kehrli's January 29 memorandum regarding the financial support for the White House by the Committee for the Re-Election of the President. This memorandum is in your talking paper drawer indicating that you wanted to cover the subject personally with the Attorney General. At your meeting today with the Attorney General and Fred Malek it might be appropriate to discuss this budget subject because Fred Malek will serve on the budget committee under Secretary Stans at 1701. Another alternative would be to have Malek discuss the subject directly with the Attorney General. GS:1m Administratively Confidential February 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Republican Leadership Conference--March 1-4 Harry Dent called concerning a Republican Leadership Conference to be held in Washington March 1-4. Discussion with the Attorney General encouraged Dent to get "the best Administration spokesmen" at this event which will be the last mass meeting of delegate types before the Republican National Convention in August. Dent has approached Kissinger and Connally and received some favorable indications from their offices. Dent also approached John Scali to be moderator of one of the foreign policy discussions. Scali said he would be glad to do it, but that he has "been instructed to keep his head down and maintain low visibility". Dent asks that you grant an exception to this general rule that Scali not be an out- front spokesman. Chuck Colson believes that Scali should do this event. Recommendation: That John Scali be informed that he should attend this Republican Leadership Conference. Approve Disapprove Comment GS:1m Administratively Confidential February 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: New Hampshire Mock Election The Committee to Re-Elect the President conducted a mock election at New Hampshire College in Manchester, New Hampshire today. Sample ballots were given to 150 students (total enrollment 950). The results were: Nixon 32% Muskie 28% McGovern 15% Ed Cole (local) 6% Humphrey 3% Lindsay 3% McCloskey 3% Ashbrook 1% Hartke 1% Yorty 1% At the direction of Jeb Magruder and Ken Rietz, Van Shumway and Tom Sias, the New Hampshire PR Director for the Committee to Re-Elect the President, are handling publicity in Washington and New Hampshire respectively. GS:1m Administratively Confidential February 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: "The Loyal Opposition" Bill Monroe of NBC News interviewed Minnesota Governor Anderson; Senator Bayh; Lawrence O'Brien; Mary Lou Burg (DNC) 1 Robert Strauss (DNC Treasurer); and Patricia Harris (DNC Chairman of Credentials Committee) on January 30 between 5 and 6 p.m. The news summary note is attached at Tab A and the complete transcript (obtained by the RNC) is attached at Tab B. The video tape of the program is available upon request. To summarize: O'Brien attacked the Administration's PR expenditures, the political release of $12 B, and $50 M campaign budget when asked if it would be difficult to beat the President. O'Brien's policy criticisms focussed on the "veto minded President" that blocked a Democratic Congress trying to bring this nation forward in important social areas". Strauss said it would be difficult forthe Democrats to contend "with a $50 or $60 million campaign". Bayh stated that the economy and Vietnam would be the critical issues within "the whole issue of confidence and credibility". O'Brien agreed strongly that the credibility issue acompassed all other issues. Patricia Harris hit the President for vetoing every bill for the "benefit of the little man". She was the only one who would answer Monroe's question on bussing. Her answer emphasized "quality education" not transporting children, and that the Democrats would not rely on "phony signals". Anderson believes that "the number one issue is unemployment". He also hit the VAT as unfair and regressive. He suggested closing tax loopholes instead. O'Brien frequently returned to credibility, "the vetoes the deficit (and) the commumications control". --2- In response to Monroe's question about why there were so many Democratic candidates, all responded that it is because the Democrats have so many good people. Similarly, all praised the Democratic party on its reform progress but did not attack the Republicans on lack of reform. Monroe concluded by saying that the outlook for 1972 was "a tough hard fought campaign and, probably, in November a close election.' GS:1m THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: To : HS From : L. Higby By tomorrow H. necde /page may plus an indications of what happyned here. Get Ns report Also how did they get this ? C Administratively Confidential February 9, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Surveys PeNN. Bob Teeter submitted the attached seven-page summary of the Presidential poll conducted by MOR. In Teeter's mind this is the format agreed upon when you and the Attorney General met with him on January 31. Discussion with Teeter developed the following points for you to consider: 1) The Attorney General asked for the two pages on personality, but Teeter wonders whether you also want to receive them. Yes, Haldeman receive personality pages No, exclude personality material Other 2) The Attorney General has not asked for a Presidential approval page with full demographics, but you may want to have that page added. Yes, Haldeman receive Presidential popularity with full demographics No, exclude popularity demographics Other 3) Peter Dailey and Bob Marik will have direct access to all of Teeter's poll information except these summary memoranda and the trial heat results. 4) Jeb Magruder will have access to all of Teeter's polling information though it will be delivered to the Attorney General in the first instance. -2- 5) Iowa, New Jersey, and North Carolina have also been received. The results are presented in the same format as the Pennsylvania results. The New Jersey polling information is attached. Larry has Iowa and North Carolina, as well as a special New Hampshire follow-up telephone poll. 6) The schedule for the receipt of the rest of the poll results is: Ohio, Indiana, Missouri February 14 Califormia, New York, Oregon, Virginia February 21 Texas, Tennessee, Maryland, and National February 28 7) Upon completion of this first wave, Teeter will begin projects that you discussed with him on January 31 in this order -- Presidential travel, the President's image, and the President's handling of the issues. 8) Ken Cole, on February 9, asked you by memorandum whether the Domestic Council staff could receive the results of these campaign polls. He wants only the material dealing with "domestic policy issues" and would personally limit the distribution of the results. RECOMMENDATION: That Ken Cole receive the issue sections of the National poll which will be available on February 28. You and the Attorney General would sign off on the text to be given to Cole. AGREE DISAGREE COMMENT Administratively Confidential February 8, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Bob Teeter/Campaign Polling Three questions remain after your meeting yesterday with the Attorney General and Bob Teeter. The first concerns the amount of information you wanted Bob Teeter to discuss with the Campaign Strategy Group (February 7 attendees: Malek, Moore, Miller, Flemming, Dent, Magruder, Joanou, Dailey, Kaupinen, and LaRue). Teeter told the group that the President was in good shape in all states polled so far except Wisconsin. He said the President was strong in either two-way, three-way, or four to five-way trial heats. When asked by Dent if the Becker poll on New Hampshire (71-14-4) was accurate, Teeter said yes. Presumably you and the Attorney General authorized these disclosures. The second matter concerns the direction of Teeter's work load. You decided yesterday that Magruder and I should have tandem responsibility to direct Teeter's efforts. You now want Teeter to test various Vice Presidential candidates' strengths in certain states. Presumably you want Magruder, on behalf of the Attorney General, to be privy to this project. Thirdly, is there any specific followeup with Teeter from your meeting with him and the Attorney General yesterday? GS:1m THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 2/7 TO: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN Bob Teeter delivered his analysis of the Harris Domestic Issues Poll of September 1971. A copy of this memorandum was delivered by Teeter to the Attorney General on February 4. I gave Fred Malek a copy of Tetter's analysis on February 4 because he received a copy of the Harris Poll at your direction in November. In light of Malek's new responsibilities, it seemed appropriate that he receive copies of Teeter's comments. Should Ehrlichman and Ken Cole receive copies of the Teeter analysis and control distribution within the Domestic Council as they did with the original Harris it Issues Poll? Yes No Administratively Confidential February 8, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Strategy The Campaign Strategy Group discussed your statement on "consciously aiding and abetting" the enemy and the public effect. Cliff Miller believes that it was a serious mistake; the timing was bad. Just when we had the Vietnam issue on our side, the Democrat's will now be able to turn the discussion to loyalty and not stupidity. Miller believes the matter is so serious that you may be on the cover of the news magazines next week. Miller believes Rockefeller should be asked to come to your defense along with other public officials. Dick Moore also believes the matter is serious and damaging but not to the extent Miller does. Moore thinks it would be valuable for you to respond publicly to your critics. Harry Dent was very pleased by your statement. He thinks you should have others in the Administration support you with similar statements. He believes most Americans still react favorably to charges of communist sympathizer. Dent believes Kissinger should support the substance of your charge by publicly disclosing what he has said in Leadership meetings -- that McGovern et al do damage to our negotiating position by making counter proposals. Jeb Magruder thought that worse storms had been weathered (he cited the Judge Friday and Liddy example) and that we should all have confidence in the President's ultimately correct design. Harry Flemming thought we should say nothing, let the issue drop, and rely on the fact that the American public neither knows you nor follows the debate. Dwight Chapin believes that the purpose of the Today Show interview was to show you an a quiet, competent posture What may have been undermined by such a large news item. He believes there should have been more staffing (Dick Moore, -2- Bill Safire, etc.) of your remarks. Chapin also believes that you will become the Victim of White House and Washington jealoustes that will begin back stabbing you and diminishing your power. Peter Dailey believes that the response by your defenders should permit only two alternatives -- either the Democrats are traitors or they are so stupid in undermining the President's negotiating position that they should be disqualified from nationallleadership positions. GS;lm Administratively Confidential February 7, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Presidential Papers and Estate Plan Simultaneous with the return of my January 27 memorandum asking for guidance on the Presidential estate plan project, Hughes sent you the attached memorandum on the Proposed State Funeral Plan for President Nixon. Rose Woods also received a copy, but Hughes believes the next action step is yours. Concerning the Presidential estate plan, your direction was to "hold" presumabley after discussing the matter with Ehrlichman. There must be some excellent reasons for the delay because the arguments in favor of resolving this entire matter brfore thee China trip are powerful. Without belaboring the subject you should know that: 1) of the President or Mrs. Nixon were to die, the President's papers would be controlled by his immediate family; 2) If either or both were to die, some of the papers and memorabilia would have to be sold to pay the federal estate tax; 3) If any member of the top White House Staff with personal control of some of the Presidential papers were to die, while a resident of Maryland, heavy state death taxes would be levied in addition to causing federal estate tax problems. The Kalmbach, DeMarco and Mudge Rose plans can be consolidated and implemented quickly. I strongly urge you and Mr. Ehrlichman to reconsider the decision to "hold" the Presidential papers and estate project. GS:1m THE WHITE HOUSE DETERMINED TO BE AN WASHINGTON ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING E.O. 12065, Section 6-102 February 4, 1972 By NARS, Date 1-8-80 SENSITIVE/EYES ONLY MEMORANDUM FOR BOB HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Proposed State Funeral Plan for President Nixon As we discussed, the updated plan has been modified to include several suggestions arising from considerations by you, me and Rose Woods. She now has the plan. I think the first step and one that should be initiated immediately is the procurement of a plot for the President and the First Lady. In my opinion the one that has been recommended by Mr. Paul Miller as a result of a visit to Rose Hill Memorial Park is appropriate and we should move on that soonest. As you may remember, it overlooks the Milhous plot. I believe that we should recommend that only the President and the First Lady be buried there. There is more than ample room for this, yet a Presidential plot should probably have a little more space than the ordinary one. If you concur, I would recommend that the President's personal lawyer on the West Coast, I guess that is Herb Kalmbach, start moving on this. Mr. Paul Miller, of the Military District of Wash- ington, is available to assist on a very private basis. Vern Coffey is also well read in and can provide continuity. Naturally, I am available to assist in any way that you wish me to. Um MAJOR GENERAL JAMES D. HUGHES Copy to: Rose Woods (krow THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential February 4, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Vietnam Announcement Poll Jan 26-27 You asked several questions about the popularity and trial heat results within the various demographic groups (memoranda attached at Tab A). The questions in your memoranda have been numbered so that Benham's responses (attached at Tab B) can be quickly compared. To the extent Benham's memoranda do not answer the questions asked, the reason is the statistical insignificance of certain demographic group shifts. The guide to "Statistical Significance of Survey", which is submitted with the package of detailed demographics, points out that the statistical margin of error is between 2% and 17% depending on the demographic group (copy of chart attached at Tab C). For example, when only 54 of the 18-20 year olds are interviewed the result that 59% approve, the actual results (if everyone in the statistical universe were interviewed) could be either 76% or 42% approval. Although on a probability argument the closer the results approach the statistical limit the more significant the shift, Benham strongly emphasizes that the chart's percentage figures should be considered conservatively. Unless the change is outside the statistical percentage, they should be disregarded. To compare shifts within demographic groups from one poll to another, the differences must be even larger to be statistically significant. At Tab D is the ORC chart on the sampling tolerances for comparing two survey percentages. To respond to your specific question about the apparent drops in approval by women, those 50 years and older, and those with an education of 8th grade or less, discussions with Benham develop these comments: The drop in approval by women from 52% to 49% between November 21-22 and January 26-27 is not statistically significant. That 3% variation does not come close to the 8% required when one 500 sample is compared with another 500 sample. Concerning the shift of the 50+ age group, the drop from 55% approval on the November 19-21 survey to 49% on the January 26-27 survey is considerably below the 8-11% needed when comparing two demographic groups of between -2- 250 and 500. The 12% drop in this older group between the September 7-8 survey and the January 26-27 survey is significant, especially since the bulk of the drop occurred between September 7-8 and October 9-10. However, the 61% approval in the Spetember 7-8 poll is really a unique peak rather than a base against which a drop is to be measured. The ORC August 21-22 poll had approval at 55%, the ORC July 20-21 at 52% and June 5-6 at 57%. The 61% peak could be attributable to the President's anti-inflation announcements on August 15, as well as the identification with older voters by visiting the nursing home in Nashua, New Hampshire on August 6. Therefore, the constant approval level for the President among this group is approximately 55% with statistically insignificant variations from that base of support. Concerning the drop by those with educational levels of 8th grade or less, again, the 6% between November 19-21 and January 26-27 is not statistically significant. Even the drop from 56% to 44% between September 7-8 and January 26-27 is not significant because the comparison of two groups of 100 interviewees requires a difference of 17%. When a comparison is made between two demographic groups (men and women) between two surveys, the results must be considered even more carefully. It is not possible to conclude that because men rose 6% in approval and women dropped 3% that there is a net 9% drop which shows a very significant weakness among women. The reason that this conclusion is invalid is that there is an overlap for statistical variations of 7% (i. men - 58%=66% or 50%; women - 49%=57% or 41 %). The only conclusion that can be drawn is that more men approve the President than women. To determine whether this 9% spread between men and women is a statistical quirk rather than an indication of a trend, another ORC survey in the next month or so would be required. As you know, Tom Benham prepared an analysis of five surveys which allowed the demographic groups to be pooled so that the groups were large enough to yield statistically significant conclusions. An updated two-page summary that I prepared in November from this book of tables and conversations with Benham is attached at Tab E. One solution to the "statistical significance" problem is the group interview technique which you used in 1968. When the same people are re-interviewed and their attitudes toward the President have improved that is significant. Of course, as the same people are re-interviewed again and again, they become "jaded" towards questions and their responses become increasingly questionable. Scylla and Charybdis. The trial heat comparisons that appear in Benham's analysis at Tab B are his preliminary comments based on available data. He has gone back through the -3- demographic charts and had some more computer runs prepared. These were mailed on February 3 and should be available for your review on February 7. Benham will be in Washington on February 7 and would be available to discuss any of these materials with you. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 31, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR : GORDON STRACHAN FROM : H.R. HALDEMAN H. I don't understand some of the breaks on the demographic tab of the January poll, question 1. # I For example, I don't see how both union families and non-union families can have dropped three points in the period from September to January when the overall total has only dropped two points. It just doesn't average out that way. # 2 For another example, I don't see how the income split in September can be right when the total public shows a 56% approval, how can you have the under $5,000 at 57, the over $15,000 at 61, and the $5 - $15 at 55? It would seem to me that these would have to average out to more than 56. G => Benhan 1/31, FU 2/1- delay to 2/3 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 28, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY Some questions it might be interesting to find the answer to with regard to the poll today -- On the Trial Heats are the same people voting for us each time when it is Muskie and Kennedy. We get 52% on both. Also how similar are the the constituencies between Muskie and Kennedy with their 36 and 41. It appears that Wallace hurts us more than he does either Kennedy or Muskie. Where does Wallace hurt us more south or north or with a particular age group or what? Realistically the 2% increase over our ORC November poll is statistically insignificant. I assume you are finding out the shift here. Received With regard to question #2. We have to get a four-way break here rather than just the two-way. Question #3 doesn't really tell us very much except there has been a small upsurge in support of Vietnam. Where did it occur. 5 avail - Question #4 is very disturbing in that we have dropped a total of eight points here. It would be interesting to break question #4 against Question #1 to find out what our supporters are thinking. avail With regard to Question #9 it would be interesting to see if the 34% that don't think we did a good job on the speech are the same 34% who don't approve us. 7 child Also, is there anybody who is in the 17% on Question #10 who is not in the 34% on Question #9. extry mile) 8 Who makes up the 46% on Question #11 that we are having problems with. How many are the same people on Question #9 and how many of these are the same people who disapprove us? 2 #gaval -- How many on Question #12 in the 38% are the same people who disapprove of the President? THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 31, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY L I don't know if you have seen a copy of this, but these are some notes Bob did as a result of taking the ORC data with him over the weekend. It might be interesting to get Benham's reaction to the things Bob has noted since he failed to name most of them in his original analysis. It would also be helpful to have Tom Benham review the data from the two previous polls. Also, you should plan on making up one of these cards everytime wedo one of these telephone polls. Attachment THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 31, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY L Bob asked that Benham do, as soon as possible, an analysis of the shifts involved in the demographics for the last four or five polls in the trial heat areas. What we would like Benham to do here is look for something a little more subtle than just the numbers which will be pretty obvious as soon as you do the necessary charts and what the reasoning is behind the shifts. G a Benham 2/1 FU 2/2 New aday 2/3 - new runs mailed THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 1, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY Bob has raised again the question of the shifts in the trial heats and asked that you give this project top priority in getting a report back in to him. Also, as I think I told you, with regard to his notes on the January poll, he would like an explanation or at least ORC's evaluation of an explanation of why some of these figures have changed. Why are we showing a serious weakness in women, why are people over fifty dropping, etc. Please get this in as soon as possible. Is anybody making arrangements of getting our national data to Teeter or what's the situation here? The same would be true of getting stuff to the A. G Bol were ad w/ AG personally 1/31 no, decision not to involve Teeter after SOTU project NOTES ON JANUARY POLL RE: Approval of the President In October and November there was a very little difference between men and women in their approval. However, in the January poll, approval by men has gone up 6 points, while approval by women has gone down 3 points. There is now a very substantial 9 point spread indicating a serious weakness among women. Why Age groups have been erratic over the last few months in their shifts up and down, but over the period from September through October, November and January, approval by 18-20 year olds is up very substantially, not much change in the 20s, a recovery from the November drop among the 30-50 age group, and a serious drop in the 50 and over. By age group, there's a major drop in the grammar school education, a recovery of the drop among high school graduates, and a substantial increase among college people. By political affiliation, there's a recovery of the drop among Republicans, no change among Democrats or Independents. Regionally, there was a drop in the East in October which has gradually been recovered, a drop in the Mid-West in October which has 2 now turned to a substantial gain, a steady decline in the South, and a steady decline in the West. In September the South and West were the two strongest regions, the Mid-West the weakest, and the East about average. Today, the Mid- West is the strongest, with the others about average. Why 7 In summary, there has been a major and continuing drop among women, among those over 50, and among those with an elementary school education. Why ? HRH 1/31/72 1/29/72 QUESTION 1 69049 JANUARY 26-27, 1972 1026 INTERVIEWS DO YOU APPROVE 00 DISAPPROVE CH THE WAY RICHARD MIXON IS HANDLING HIS JCB AS PRESIDENT O-OST 19-21 T.C. 0-0CT O-DICY 0-180-2022 7-8 ON PERCENTAGE BASE UNWTD WTD APPROVE DISAPPROVE OPINION TOTAL PUBL IC 1026 1135 54 52 52 56 36 33 38 34 10 15 10 10 MEN 511 564 +58 52 52 58 33 34 42 35 9 14 6 7 WOMEN 515 572 49 52 53 54 39 33 33 33 12 15 14 13 16-20 YEARS OF AGE 54 82 ++ 59 46 55 36 35 37 41 53 6 17 4 11 21-29 YEARS 228 216 1. 54 50 47 53 39 30 41 40 / 14 12 7 30-49 YEARS 408 400 ++ 58 49 56 56 33 35 35 35 9 16 9 9 50 YEARS AND OVER 335 437 - 49 55 51 61 37 31 37 26 14 14 12 13 8TH GRADE OR LESS 110 261 - 44 51 47 56 39 31 39 30 17 18 14 11 HIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE 145 200 47 47 46 47 42 37 39 39 11 16 15 14 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE 364 400 +- 58 52 55 59 34 45 38 33 8 13 7 8 SOME COLLEGE 404 270 + 62 55 57 59 30 33 35 35 3 12. 3 6> UNION FAMILIES 270 307 ?mipose. 44 41 = 47 46 45 48 45 10 14 11 8 NONUNION FAMILIES 756 829 57 56 57 60 32 2.9 33 29 11 15 10 11 WHITE 929 1014 56 hg 56 58 33 32 34 32 11 14 10 10 NONWHITE 95 119 32 24 25 34 58 44 60 52 10 22 15 14 PROTESTANT 536 600 58 56 55 60 31 33 37 30 11 11 8 10 CATHCLIC 281 304 48 48 50 54 42 35 38 36 10 16 12 10 JEWISH 41 44 29 41 24 x 63 55 70 X 8 1 C X UNDER $5,000 INCOME 151 237 49 49 43 57,35 36 44 32 16 15 13 11 $5,000 $15,000 559 597 55 5 2 55 36 38 36 10 13 9 9 OVER $15,000 234 207 56 58 60 61 39 33 36 31 5 9 4 8 NOW REGISTERED 827 899 55 53 54 56 35 35 37 34 10 12 9 10 WILL REGISTER 159 185 49 51 48 54 38 29 36 34 13 22 16 12 REGISTERED 02 WILL REGISTER 986 1085 54 53 53 56 36 24 37 34 10 13 10 10 WON'T REGISTER 40 51 48 28 25 60 31 29 59 33 21 43 16 7 REPUBLICAN 340 225 239 + 82 77 82 84 12 12. 12 9 6 11 6 7 DENOCRAT 512 382 466 38 3$ 38 39 51 47 49 49 11 15 13 12. INDEPENDENT 325 326 56 57 57 57 33 31 37 35 11 12 6 S LEAN REPUBLICAN 115 113 73 79 $3 81 18 12 12. 17 4 9 5 S LEAN DENOCRAT 130 140 39 36 31 37 49 49 03 51 12 15 a 12 OTHER INDEPENDENTS 127 129 51 B2 59 35 27 2.2 25 30 22 20 16 4 CONSERVATIVE 521 274 282 72 62 69 71 22 23 28 22 6 15 3 17 LIBERAL 365 200 217 44 33 35 29 49 55 58 53 7 12 7 6 IN GETWEEN 489 551 an 49 50 56 57 38 29 34 23 13 15 10 10 LEMI CONSERVATIVE 227 249 54 63 67 65 38 25 25 29 8 12 8 6 LEAN LIBERAL 165 185 47 17 43 47 41 32 46 42 12 21 11 11 OTHER BETWEEN 160 202 43 43 40 47 33 36 39 31 24 10 21 27. NIXON VOTERS 432 450 77 74 77 76 16 15 18 16 / 11 5 a BURPHREY VOTERS 216 230 24 2.7 14 29 67 63 65 59 I 10 " 12 WALLACE VOTERS 55 67 39 40 43 56 48 45 89 35 13 15 I a NONVOTERS 251 299 48 41 45 14 37 38 42 44 15 21 13 12 EAST 266 230 to 53 Co 47 55 38 39 41 X 9 11 12 G NIDWEST 239 312 + 56 51 16 51 34 35 42 x 10 14 12 10 SOUTH 299 356 53 04 59 to 33 20 32 X 14 19 $ 13 WEST 172 187 52 51 57 G8 41 36 34 X 7 13 2 " OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION 0001 Big urman; Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, IS Respondents: 1026 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is handling his job as President? Polling DATE Date A D N.O. RELS O-Aug 21-22 56 31 13 N.R Union 48 39 13 Non-Union 59 28 13 *G-Aug 20-23 51 37 12 9/1 *G-Aug 27-30 49 38 13 9/1 *H-Aug 48 50 2 10/ O-Sep 7-8 56 34 10 N.R Union 47 45 8 Non-Union 60 29 11 *H-Sep 20-25 51 48 1 10/ 0-Oct 9-10 52 38 10 N.H Union 41 48 11 Non-Union 57 33 10 *G-Oct 8-11 54 35 11 10/ *G-Oct 29- 49 37 14 11, Nov 1 O-Nov. 19-21 52 33 15 Union 41 45 14 Non-Union 56 29 15 *G-Oct 29- 49 37 14 11/ Nov. 1 *H-Oct 28- 53 46 1 11/ Nov 12 *G-Dec 10-13 49 37 14 12/2 *II-Dec 28- Jan 4, '72 49 47 4 *G-Jan 7-9 49 39 12 1/2 O-Jan 26-27 54 36 10 *No union/non-union demographics given. VISTRAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 -2- 2. How would you rate the job President Nixon is doing as President -- excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor? Good- Only Fair- Polling Date Excellent Poor Not Sure H-Mar '70 52 45 3 H-Apr '70 52 46 2 H-May '70 51 45 4 H-Jun '70 52 45 3 H-Jul '70 52 46 2 H-Aug '70 48 49 3 H-Sep '70 50 45 5 H-Oct '70 54 44 2 H-Nov '70 47 50 3 H-Jan '71 48 50 2 H-Feb '71 43 54 3 H-Mar '71 41 56 3 H-Apr '71 (early) 46 53 1 H-Apr '71 (late) 47 50 3 H-May '71 47 50 3 H-Jun '71 50 48 2 H-Jul '71 44 53 3 H-Aug '71 48 50 2 H-Sep '71 51 48 1 H-Oct 28- 53 46 1 Nov 12 '71 H-Dec 28- 49 47 4 Jan 4 '72 O-Jan 26-27 '72 53 45 2 VIETNAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 -3- 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is handling the Vietnam situation? Polling Date Approve Disapprove N.O. G-Feb 19-21, 1971 41 46 13 O-Mar 6-7, 1971 41 47 12 0-Apr 1, 1971 32 46 22 0-Apr 5-6, 1971 42 46 12 O-Apr 8, 1971 48 40 12 0-Apr 12-13, 1971 48 40 12 O-Apr 22, 1971 40 45 15 O-May 1-2, 1971 48 41 11 O-May 6-7, 1971 46 38 16 O-Jun 5-6, 1971 48 43 9 O-Jun 21, 1971 46 41 13 O-Aug 21-22, 1971 47 40 13 G-Sep 3-16, 1971 42 H-Sep, 1971 44 54 2 O-Nov 19-21, 1971 50 39 11 Union 46 44 10 Non-Union 53 36 11 H-Dec 28- 40 54 6 Jan 4, '72 O-Jan 26-27, '72 54 38 8 VIETNAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 -1- 4. Do you approve or disapprove with the way President Nixon is dealing with the economic conditions in this country? Polling Date A D N.O. H-Feb 19-21, 1971 37 48 15 O-Aug 21-22, 1971 59- 31 10 Union 48 38 14 Non-union 63 28 9 O-Sep 7-8, 1971 56 32 .12 Union 49 41 10 Non-Union 60 28 12 0-Oct 9-10, 1971 57 35 8 Union 47 46 7 Non-Union 62 30 8 O-Nov 19-21, 1971 48 39 13 Union 41 51 8 Non-Union 51 34 15 O-Jan 26-27, 1972 46 45 9 5. Did you see President Nixon's television speech on the Vietnam peace negotiations Tuesday evening? Polling Date Yes No D.K. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 60 40 0 If "no" or "don't know" on question #5 then question #6 is asked: 6. Did you hear or read anything about President Nixon's speech on the Vietnam peace negotiations Tuesday evening? Polling Date Yes No D.K. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 17 23 0 VIETNAM ANHOUNCEMENT POLL Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 -5- If "yes" to either question #5 or question #6 then ask questions #7 through #11: 7. In general, how do you rate your reaction to what President Nixon said in his speach on Vietnam peace negotiations? Polling Dates & Events Awareness Reaction VF SF SU VU K.O. State of Union O-Jan 25-28, 1971 68 26 47 14 6 12 Annual Foreign Policy Report O-May 1-3, 1971 36 17 40 20 11 7 Press Conference on Foreign Policy O-May 6-7, 1971 55 20 39 18 14 9 Calley Case O-Apr 1, 1971 96 Report on Vietnam O-Apr 8, 1971 69 25 38 16 13 8 0-Apr 12-13, 1971 74 20 42 18 10 10 Vietnam Veterans Demonstration O-Apr 22, 1971 77 Press Conference of Apr 29 O-May 1-2, 1971 61 24 39 18 9 10 Press Conference of Jun 1 O-Jun 5-6, 1971 44 21 37 19 12 11 Pentagon Papers O-Jun 21, 1971 51 China Announcement O-Jul 20-21, 1971 85 33 35 12 10 10 Economic Announcement G-Aug 18, 1971 91 46 22 6 5 12 (2) Await Economic Announcement 82 27 46 13 9 5 O-Aug 21-22, 1971 89 17 49 16 11 7 Union 80 32 45 11 8 4 Non-Union Violnam Announcement 77 29 44 16 8 3 VIETNAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL -6- Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 8. After President Nixon's speech on the Vietnam peace negotiations Tuesday evening, what do you feel are the chances of settling the Vietnam war by negotiation - excellent, good, fair, or poor? Polling Date Excellent Good Fair Poor D.K. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 5 20 36 34 5 9. President Nixon has often been criticized in recent months for his handling of the Vietnam war. Do you feel the President, in his speech, adequately answered his critics regarding Vietnam negotiation, or not? Polling Date Yes No N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 56 34 10 Democrats 45 43 12 Republicans 75 16 9 Independents 57 35 8 10. Do you agree or disagree with President Nixon's decision to make public the details of the secret peace negotiations in Paris? Polling Date Yes No N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 76 17 7 11. Do you agree with President Nixon's statement on T.V. that he has "gone the extra mile" in trying to settle Victnam at the negotiating table, or do you feel he should be making a stronger effort than he has? Polling Date Agree Disagree N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 50 46 5 Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 -7- Respondents: 1026 Ask everybody: 12. In his State of the Union Address last Thursday, the President announced an increase in defense spending to prevent the United States from falling behind Russia in defense capability. Do you support the President's stand in this area, or do you think we should not increase defense spending? Support Pres. - Polling Date Should Increase Should Not N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 51 38 11 13. In his State of the Union Speech, the President said that "soaring property tax rates now threaten both our communities and schools.' He said he would make a recommendation this year for releaving this burden and providing federal financing for our schools. Do you agree or disagree with the President that property taxes are now a major threat and must be reduced by federal action? Polling Date Agree Disagree N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 75 17 8 14. There has been some criticism of the President's new budget because it proposes another deficit. Which do you feel is more important -- a balanced budget for the government, or a program to stimulate the economy even if it means a large deficit in the federal budget? Polling Date Yes No D.K. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 36 47 17 VIETRAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL -8- Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1972 Respondents: 1026 15. There is currently a constitutional amendment pending in Congress that would prohibit any child from being assigned to a school on the basis of race. If this amendment were passed, it would overturn recent court decisions that have resulted in compulsory bussing of students. Do you favor or oppose such a constitutional amendment? Polling Date Favor Oppose N.O. O-Jan 26-27, 1972 66 27 7 TREAT HEATS VILTNAM ANNOUNCEMENT POLL Polling Dates: Jan 26-27, 1971 Respondents: 1026 Poll Dates MUSKIE KENNEDY HHH NcGOV LINDSAY G - June 39-41-12-8 42-41-10-7 42-39-12-7 4-7 H - July 40-42-13-5 44-36-13-7 G - Aug. 42-36-11-11 43-38-10-9 43-37-11-9 45-30-12-1 20-23 H - Aug. 47-45-8 48-37-11-4 45-36-12-7 48-33-13-6 48-33-13- 24-27 43-41-12-4 G.- - Sep 3-16 41-37-10-12 42-40-9-9 42-38-11-9 45-29-15-1 H - Sep. 24 50-40-10 Oct. 1 47-35-11-7 45-38-11-6 45-36-12-7 50-31-11- G -- Oct. 8-11 43-35-13-9 0 - Nov. 45-39-16 47-42-11 51-38-11 19-21 40-33-16-11 41-39-12-8 43-34-14-9 G - Nov. 44-41-10-5 44-41-10-5 47-37-12-4 49-33-12-6 19-22 H - Oct. 28- 43-39-11-7 45-37-11-7 45-36-12-7 Nov. 12 H - Nov. 43-39-11-7 45-36-12-7 49-31-12-8 49-31-12-1 1-12 H - Dec. 28 42-42-11-5 50-41-9 , 51-40-9 Jan. 4 45-48-7 45-39-10-6 46-37-12-5 G - Dec. 10 13 44-41 44-41 1972 G - Jan. 79 47-37 O -- Jan. 52-36-12 52-41-7 58-33-9 26-27 46-32-13-9 45-37-12-6 50-30-12-8 February 3, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: TOM BENHAM SUBJECT: Vietnam Announcement Poll January 26-27, 1972 Question #1: "I don't see how both union families and non-union families can have dropped three points in the period from September to January when the overall total has only dropped two points. It just doesn't average out that way. 11 Answer #1: There are two factors. It is computer rounding basically. The difference between a total drop and the average of the subgroup drop is only one percent. The computer rounds out all numbers and forces the total to 100 percent. The various weights applied to the population also affect the subgroup slightly. As a metter of fact, none of the differences from September to January are significant for the size of sample. There are only three points for union families and three points for non-union families. Question #2: "I don't see how the income split in September can be right. When the total public shows a 56% approval, how can you have the under $5,000 at 57, the over $15, 000 at 61, and the $5-$15 at 55? It would seem to me that these would have to average out to more than 56. 11 Answer #2: Well, aside from computer rounding, another factor is that there are eight percent who don't disclose their income. These are left out of those three breaks but included in the total. That eight percent voted 56 percent approval, 32 percent disapprove and 12 percent no opinion. This group along with 2 the $5, 000-$15, 000 income category is well over half the sample SO the two things together tend to bring the average down. In other words, you've got the figures grouped with 55 percent. Question #3: "On the trial heats are the same people voting for us each time when it is Muskic and Kennedy. We get 52 percent on both. Also how similar are the constituencies between Muskie and Kennedy with their 36 and 41. It "appears that Wallace hurts us more than he does either Kennedy or Muskie -- where does Wallace hurt us more -- South or North or with a particular age group or what? Realistically the two percent increase over our ORC November poll is statistically insignificant. I assume you are finding out the shift here. 11 Answer #3: We cross-broke the two runs, the Nixon/Muskic/ Kennedy versus Nixon/Kennedy undecided. Now, taking the voters who voted for Nixon against Muskie -- when Kennedy is the opponent 82 percent vote for Nixon, 16 percent for Kennedy and two un- decided. Those who voted for Muskie when it is a Nixon/Kennedy race, 17 percent vote for Nixon, 77 percent for Kennedy and six percent are undecided. or the undecided in the Nixon/Muskie race we have 26 percent for Nixon, 36 percent for Kennedy and 38 percent undecided. So there is a cross-over. In other words, some of the Muskie voters refused to vote for Kennedy and some of the Nixon voters leave him to vote when Kennedy is the opponent instead of Muskie. If you look at the same data in the opposite direction take the Nixon/Kennedy race versus Nixon/Muskic, on those who vote for Nixon against Kennedy, 82 percent vote for Nixon against Muskie but twelve percent switch OVCT to Muskie, six percent go to undecided. Among those who vote for Kennedy against Nixon, 22 percent go now to Nixon, 68 percent stay to Muskie, ten percent undecided. The undecided in the Nixon/Kennedy race go ten percent Nixon, twenty percent Muskie, 62 percent undecided. So it actually balances out, though in both cases there are some Democrats who will vote for the one candidate but not 3 for the other. There are some Republicans who will desert Nixon for one candidate but not for the other SO it comes to the same 52 percent but there is a little-difference. Now, when you compare the background data on it too, you can see that there is a slight difference. President Nixon gets 52 percent of the vote against both Muskie and Kennedy. They are not the same types. When running against Muskie, President Nixon draws better among voters in the 18-20 year old and non-white and Catholics than when he runs against Kennedy. When Kennedy is the candidate, he does better among those groups. Those are the only significant shifts -- youth, non-whites and Catholics. Question #4: There has been a small upsurge in support of the President's Vietnam policies which groups did it occur in? Answer #4: All the significant categories are youth, those who attended college, Republicans and Conservatives. Among 18-20 year olds, even though it is a small sample, you have a change from 38 percent to 54 percent. Among the 21-29 age group moved from 43 percent up to 56 percent. Those who attended college went for 53 percent in November to 62 per- cent in January - - Republicans 67 percent up to 79 percent Republican leaners from 63 percent to 82 - Conservatives from 57 percent to 70 percent. Obviously the President's handling of Vietnam, pulling troops out and his firmness of the whole thing is having a significant effect. Question #5: "Question #4 (Do you approve or disapprove the way President Nixon is dealing with the economic conditions in this country ?) is very disturbing in that we have dropped a total of eight points here. It would be interesting to break question #4 against Question #1 (Presidential popularity) to find out what our supporters are thinking. 11 4 Answer #5: This cross-break of the President's handling of the economic conditions against Presidential popularity appears as a matter of course on the detailed demo- graphic charts. However, Benham had these comments. Relatively few critics of President Nixon's overall performance approve of his handling of economic conditions. On the other hand, criticism of the Administration's efforts in the economic area does not necessarily carry over to the overall evaluation. Thirty percent who disapprove of President Nixon's handling of economic conditions approve of his overall performance in office; with the economy there is a relationship, but it is not one to one. Question #6: It would be interesting to see of the 34 percent who don't think we did a good job with the speech are the same 34 percent who don't approve of us. Answer #6: Among those who approve of Nixon's handling his job as President, 74 percent say he adequately answers his critics, 18 percent said no. On the disapprove of Nixon's bandling of his job as President, 28 percent say he adequately answered, 60 percent say no. There is therefore a relationship but conclusions would be speculative. Question #7: "Is there anybody who is in the 17 percent on Question #10 (Do you agree or disagree with President Nixon's decision to make public the details of the secret peace negotiations in Paris? who is not in the 34 percent on Question #9 (President Nixon has often been criticized in recent months for his handling of the Vietnam war. Do you feel the President, in his speech, adequately answered his critics regarding Vietnam negotiation, or not Answer #7: There are few people (read down on the chart on the next page) among those who say that Nixon adequately answered his critics, 62 percent of the total agree with his decision to disclose details and 28 percent do not. Among those who say be did not adequately answer, 33 percent agree and 57 percent disagree. 5 Decision to Disclose Details Agree Disagree No Opinion President Nixon adequately answered his critics. 62 33 51 He did not. 28 57 38 No opinion. 10 10 11 (Read figures down) Question # 8: "Who makes up the 46 percent on Question #11 (Do you agree with President Nixon's statement on T.V. that he has 'gone the extra mile' in trying to settle Vietnam at the negotiating table, or do you feel hc should be making a stronger effort than he has ?) that we are having problems with. How many are the same people on Question #9 (President Nixon has often been criticized in recent months for his handling of the Victnam war. Do you feel the President, in his speech, adequately answered his critics regarding Vietnam negotiation, or not?) and how many of these are the same people who disapprove us? Answer #8: Opinion is divided regarding President Nixon's effort to settle the Vietnam situation. Fifty percent say he has gone the extra mile while 46 percent feel he should be making a greater effort. The critical point of view cuts across all of the demographical lines but is strongest among voters age 18-20, non-white and the Democratic leaners. Critics of President Nixon's overall perfor- mance in the handling of Vietnam and the economy also stand out in their criticisms. 76 percent of those who say that President Nixon did not adequately answer his critics in his Victnam speech say that he should be making a stronger effort to settle the Vietnam situation. Should Make Gone Stronger Extra Mile Effort No Opinion President Nixon adequately answered his critics. 71 26 3 He did not. 19 76 5 (Read figure 6 Question #9: "How many on question #12 (In his State of the Union Address last Thursday, the President announced an increase in defense spending to prevent the United States from falling behind Russia in defense capability. Do you support the President's stand in this area, or do you think we should not increase defense spending?) are in the 38 percent of the same people who disapprove of the President?" Answer #9: The reaction to President Nixon's announcement regarding an increase in Defense spending to keep pace with Russia militarily is somewhat divided. 51 percent support the President and 38 percent do not. Those who approve of President Nixon's performance in office are far more likely to support the President on his Defense stand than to oppose him -- sixty percent versus 31 percent. Critics of the Administration divide pretty evenly -- 38 percent support the Administration and 48 percent do not. Support the Do not increase President's stand Defense Spending N.O. Approve President Nixon's performance 60 31 9 Disapprove 38 48 14 N.O. 46 42 12 (Read figures across) STATISTICAL CIGNIFICANCE OF SURVEY RESULTS Approximate Scapling Tolerances for a Survey Nu: ber of Percentage at or Near These Levels 1968 Voting Stub Interviews 10% 20% 30% 40% Partic- Item (Unneighted) or 90% or 80% or 70% or 60% 50% ipatic- public 1,026 2% 3° 4% 4% 4% 67.8 511 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 69.8 515 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 66.0 20 years of age 54 10% 13% 15% 16% 17% 33.3 - 29 years 228 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 57.1 49 years 408 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 70.0 years and over 335 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 71.3 grade or less 110 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 54.5 school incomplete 145 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 61.3 school graduate 364 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 72.5 college 404 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 81.2 families 270 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% munion families 756 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 929 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 69.1 nwhite 95 8% 10% 12% 12% 13% 56.2 otestant 536 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% tholic 281 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% $5,000 income 151 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 56.01 $,000 - $15,000 559 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 72.0 $15,000 234 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 84.1 registered 827 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 91.2 111 register 159 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% gistered or will register 986 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% register 40 12% 15% 18% 19% 19% The 18 - 20 years of age category includes only persons 18 to 20 years old in Georgia and (entucky, 19 and 20 years old in Maska, and 20 years old in Hawaii. The other age group are extrapolations from census data. Data for these income groups are "primary family" income. Approximite Sampling Tolerances for a Survey 1968 Percentage at or Near These Levels Number of Voting Stub Interviews 10% 20% 30% 40% Partic- Item (Unveighted) or 90% or 80% or 70% or 60% 50% ipation blicon 225 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 382 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% spendent 325 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% Republican 115 7% 9% 10% 11% 11% Democrat 130 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% ther Independents 127 7% 9% 10% 11% 11% servative 274 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 200 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% between 489 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% Conservative 227 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% Liberal 165 6% 8% 9% 9% 10% in-between 160 6% 8% 9% 9% 10% voters 432 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% voters 216 5% 7% 8% 8% 8% voters 55 10% 13% 15% 16% 17% voters 251 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 266 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 71.0* 289 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 71.0 299 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 60.1 172 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 71.0 Nixon on TV 622 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% or read about 198 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% heard or read about 820 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% not see, hear or read 206 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% rove Nixon handling 578 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% approve Nixon hand- job 352 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% opinion 96 8% 10% 11% 12% 13% rove Nixon on Vietnam 575 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% approve Nixon on Victnam 376 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% opinion 75 8% 11% 13% 14% 14% Nixon on economy 487 3% 4: 5% 5% 6% approve Nixon on economy 453 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% opinion 86 8% 11% 12% 13% 13% data sh only the average voting participation for East, Midwest, and West mblned (71.0%). * Voting participal data for the South are computed separately. In the coses wir. enbgreume do not add to the total, it is because resp nts refused to answer the question or intervi could not determine accurate :: 1v. Sampling Tolerances When Comparing Two Samples Lible H Tolerances are also involved in the comparison of results from different sub groups of a sample and in the comparison of results been "P ase different samples Approximate Sampling Telerances for Differences A difference, in other words, must be of . : inc. : cortain 11 " Survey Percents 1.1 or Near These Levels statistically significant. Table 11 is a gaide to the screptions crances applicable 1011 2019 3052 4001 to such comparisons. provide 7011 or 60% 50% 2000 :,, 4% 4% 4% When to use Table II 1,500 2' 312 408 $ 1," ) 311 I'd 5% 5'.0 - ) 31: .. 5'1 5% 5% Use this table when you need an approximate guide to staristic significance of a 50 : 5% 6% 6% 6% difference between two survey percentages, The question yes usually with to answer 20 5': 747 841 8% 8% is: "Is the difference in percentages great enough to place some confidence in 711 1617 11% 12% 13% the result?" 100 311 416 4% até 4% 3:,. ... 5% 5% 5% 790 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% At ORC the term "statistically significant" is used to refer to 2 50 5': 6% 6% 6% difference larger than that shown in the table. That is, the researcher 20) 5% 7'- 8% 8% 8% can be reasonably confident (at least 95 times out of 100) that it is a true difference and not due to chance alone. 100 3% 10% 1272 12% 13% 1.000 45 4% 5% 5% 6% 79 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% Avoid using the table as a statistical "crutch" 511 5% 6% 7% 7% 200 5': 760 8',0 8% 9% 109 30 10% 12% 13% 13% The subject matter importance of differences cannot be measured by this TYPS of statistical test. The statistical test is always auxiliary to the main questions: "Is -5) 3 5% 6% 6% 6% the result important?" and, "what does it mean?" 500 of 6% 6% 7% 7% 250 5'i 756 8% 9% 9% 1() SC 10% 12% 13% 13% Very small and perhaps unimportant differences will be "statisti- 500 5% 6% 7% 806 8% cally significant" if the samples are very large. 250 5% 856 8% 9% 9% 100 6% 11% 13% 14% 1-1% Differences which are perhaps very important because of their nature ; and 250 7% 8% 10% 11% 11% and magnitude may not be "statistically significant" if the samples 100 90 12% 13% 14% 14% are small. 100 1077 14% 16% 17% 17% (95 in 100 Confidence Level) PRINTED IN U.S.A. 9 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential February 4, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: ORC Analysis of Demographic Changes in Approval of the President ORC compared four surveys between March and May 1971 when the President's approval was approximately 50% with five surveys between June and August when the President's approval moved to 56%. ORC is currently working on the data from the September, October, November and January surveys to update these conclusions. However, Benham believes that thses observations are still valid and therefore deserve your attention: 1) The President is weakest among educated youth. This group not only hasn't "come around", it is not even increasing its support with the rest of the public. Benham believes Vietnam and the draft are still issues among this group even though they are not immediate threats and constantly on the front page of the nation's newspapers. The low level of the President's popularity among the college educated youth is attributable to disagreement on all issues. The President cannot rely on the Peking trip to bring them around because of these other issues. Benham believes that the President is particularly weak in the Ecology and Consumerism areas. These generally weak areas are most pronounced amoug youth and women respectively. 2) Benham believes there will be a 50% youth turnout to vote because that was the percentage of first time 21-24 year old voters in 1968. Benham notes that since the President has a 47.5% approval rating and will get Republican and Independent youth support, he is not in as bad a position with the young voter as the media portrays. 3) In terms of increasing his popularity the President is doing better outside the South than in the South because his approval rate (593) was already high in the South. Similarly, the upward move in the Midwest is attributable to our very low starting point (47-548). The improven int in the Midwest is general, while in the -2- East it is concentrated in older persons, independents, and conservatives. 4) Benham believes that the best voting bloc for the President to go after is the Catholics because "that is where the ducks are" (25% of U.S. population is Catholic). Although they are traditionally Demo- cratic they can be pursued on two basic issues -- abortion and aid to parochial schools. Muskie and other moderate-liberal Democrats are trapped on both of these issues. 5) Although the old people have increased their support of the President by 7%, they are historically a very volatile group (this conclusion of volatility of the older voter is born out in the comparison of results in the main body of this memorandum). The biggest issue for the older voter is inflation. Benham discussed the televised appearances of the President and their relationship to Gallup approval ratings. He decided that: the "conversation with TV networks" format seems to improve ratings. On July 1, 1970, the President held a conversation with the three TV networks and the next Callup poll (July 10-12) showed a jump of 6 percentage points to 61% approval. The effect of the conversations seemed to wear off as the July 31 - Augsut 2 poll was back at 55%. Also, at the time of the conversation with four TV networks on January 4, 1971 the approval rating was 52% and a Gallup poll taken on January 10 showed an increase to 56%. The next Gallup poll (February 19-21) showed a drop to the 51% level. It has remained close to 50% since then. There is a large binder containing the detailed demographics with cross breaks on all the population subgroups. Commentary is also included. To summarize, specific groups with interesting changes in their standing include: Largest increase in approval - High School Incomplete 40-51 Next largest increase in approval - Non-white 25-35 Only drop in approval - Under 30 (18-20) 48-46 (21-29) 51-49 -3- Benham also offered some general comments unrelated to specific poll results. He believes many people are "watching and waiting" for the economic conditions to give them a clear indication of what to expect in the way of jobs, salaries, and prices. There is no event currently crystallizing opinion; therefore, public opinion is in a slack, neutral posture. The unions can't afford to go against public opinion in the President's fight against inflation because if unions did walk off the boards or resist, the public would demand legislation. In the ecology area people are worried about air and water pollution, not solid waste. Muskie is in desperate shape because the President is dominating the news and he is out front too early. Youth are alienated from society in general -- not just Vietnam. Kennedy will have a very rough time with Chappiquiddick because the media will push it in the scramble for stories. Benham is not too worried about the Conservatives or the businessmen deserting the President because they have no place to go. He believes the theme for the Campaign should emphasize the professionalism of this President. ok February 7, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL By H MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN L. HIGBY SUBJECT: Campaign Polling A review of the Campaign polling situation indicates two main weaknesses. First, you and the Attorney General are not receiving polling information in a simple usable form. Second, those individuals on the White House staff and at the Campaign Committee, who could implement directives developed from the polling information, are not receiving guidance. The reasons the polling information is not in usable form are as follows: 1. First, each of the three vendors has a slightly different format for presentation of the statistical backup. Their comments are not standardised around a format that will answer quickly the questions common to all states being surveyed. 2. When these non-standardised results are summarised by Bob Tester, the format he presents to you and the Attorney General make it difficult to quickly assimilate the information. 3. Teeter doesn't spend enough time on it. At the December 7 meeting that you, Larry and I had with Bob Teeter, the discussion focused on the general outlines of the Campaign polling plans. You gave general approval to these plans and granted access to Teeter to our accumulated polling information. At that meeting, 2 Bob Teeter committed to certain deadlines for polling results which he was unable to make for a variety of reasons. It is true that there were some start-up problems incurred with some of the vendors. However, those problems have now ironed themselves out according to Tom Benham at ORC. Now the problem is one of giving Bob Teeter specific instructions and deadlines as to how and when you want to receive the results. Teeter's methodology would not have to be radically changed in order for the results to be presented to you in a usable form. His current memoranda are disjointed, non-standardized and verbose. To solve these problems I suggest that four basic documents be presented as the results of each state arriver5 : 1. One-page summary cover sheet which would give the state, polling dates, thumbnail sketch of the current political situation as indicated by the poll, the President's approval, a brief issue summary, and trial heat position vis-a-vis the three major contenders. It would serve as the quick summary cover and the rest of the materials would serve as increasingly complex backup. 2. Tester's analysis of the results and his strategy suggestions based on those results. 3. Teeter's recommendation of which material should be given to whom from the data. The type of material that Teeter might prepare here would No that the President's approval for handling both the economy and Vietnam are much higher in New Hampshire where the people are more conserva- tive on the war and less troubled by unemployment. Issues of concern to those in New Hampshire (possibly pollution) would be noted so that those White House staff charged with substantive responsibility could 3 direct the federal government's effort toward this particular issue. Fred Malek, for example, through his control of the Grantsmanship Program, could direct an ecology project into New Hampshire. Florida material might also include a view that different people are blamed for school bussing in certain parts of the state, i.e., voters in the Northern Panhandle of Florida may in fact blame the "pointy head bureaucrats" that Wallace talks about, whereas in Miami the courts might be viewed as the institution primarily responsible. In any event, this material should receive very limited distribution. Agreement should be signed off on by you and the Attorney General prior to distribution. 4. The individual vendor's analysis of the results and the backup demographics with the details similar to those we receive from Opinion Research Corporation. Each of these three documents should remain within the exclusive control of you, the Attorney General and Bob Teeter. Certain individuals should obviously receive various parts of the information and perhaps separate reports should be made for each of them. This, however, may be clumsy and perhaps one general report is better. There are also certain peculiar examples where one individual should receive a certain piece of polling information. The example which comes to mind is Harry Dent's responsibility recently to go to South Carolina and negotiate Jim Holshouser out of the Senate race and stabilise the Republican party situation in that state. Had polling information been available for that state, Dent should have applied to you and the Attorney General for clearance to have trial heat results which would accomplish the goal established by the Attorney General. This system would work if Jeb Magruder and Gordon Strachan were given tandem responsibility for directing Bob Teeter's efforts. They tried this for the first two weeks in January but were defeated for several reasons. First, Teeter became inundated with work in having all the fourteen first-wave polling results arrive almost himultaneously. 4 Therefore, he could not function effectively no matter who was asking him questions. Second, a series of basically non-campaign Presidential requests of Teeter's polling information were funneled through me to Teeter. He used these projects (which in total would comprise three full work-days) as an excuse to the Attorney General for non-delivery of results. The nature of these projects were disclosed to Magruder recently to convince him that Teeter's claims of overwork by the White House were unfounded. He agreed that they were no excuse. Nonetheless, Magruder and Strachan should be given authority to determine priorities for Teeter and jointly control his workload. Other members of the White House staff and Campaign staff should not have access to Teeter. This will insure project completion within an acceptable time frame. Reports would still come first only to the Attorney General and Haldeman. They could be reviewed and distributed as you and the Attorney General felt appropriate. If you agree with this approach, Magruder will get the Attorney General's concurrence and this system will be initiated. Agree Disagree Other LH:kb Administratively Confidential February 3, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Republican National Convention/Use of Flag Placards Jeb Magruder called to report that the Republican National Committee will use the BBD&O recommended comner of the flag for the RNC Convention materials. Magruder advised the Attorney General that you strenuously opposed any use of the flag or part thereof, but the Attorney General decided not to overrule the RNC, Don Kendall, who volunteered BBD&O, on this matter. GS:1m Administratively Confidential February 2, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Muskie Press Conference You have a copy of Muskie's speech and all wires as of 12:30 p.m. His press conference has 15 reporters and 40 supporters. He announced his Citizens Committee - Senator Pastore, Governor Scott, Leonard Woodcock, Ester Peterson (LBJ Consumer Adviser), and Myrlie Evers (Medger's widow), etc. The foreign speech was billed as an ecology statement in all schedules that were obtained in advance. Buchanan believes Clark Clifford convinced Muskie to change the ecology subject and follow Clifford's line expressed in the New York Times Op Ed piece recently. Muskie did this and patched (note different type throughout text) this speech together. Colson is having Noel Koch prepare statements for our supporters on the Hill. He is trying to get Buchanan to draft a tough speech for a major spokesman. GS:1m February 1, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Convention Advertising Material The Attorney General has directed Jeb Magruder to get your views on the idea of using the corner of the flag on the convention advertising and convention materials before proceeding. Magruder has already been told that you think the cut-out of the flag corner is a bad idea. He would like to know what your views are on using the whole flag on the convention materials. He points out that many of the materials will end up on the floor so in effect, people will be stepping on the Glag, etc. He would like your view as soon as possible this morning since he is scheduled to meet with the advertising people today. I assume you are 100% opposed to either the whole flag or portions of the flag being used on the advertising and will so instruct him unless you indicate otherwise below. GS:LH:kb