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This file contains: From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention Poll. Copy of original memo attached. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/25/1972 From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Post Democratic Poll. 11 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/11/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Frank Sinatra. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/14/1972 From; Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Rietz contact of campus crusade people. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/13/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: MacGregor strategy meeting- July 11. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/12/1972 From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Second Wave polling results. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/3/1972 From: Arthur J. Finkelstein To: Dr. Robert H. Marik RE: Priority states. 5 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: The new York Overnight television ratings. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/12/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic telethon. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972 From: Jeb S. MacFruder To: Clark MacGregor RE: Speakers at the Democratic National Convention. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Edward D. Failor To: Clark MacGregor RE: Committee for the Reelection of the President's Activities at the Democratic National Convention. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Red Blount telephone call. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], 7/8/1972

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This file contains: From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention Poll. Copy of original memo attached. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/25/1972 From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Post Democratic Poll. 11 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/11/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Frank Sinatra. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/14/1972 From; Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Rietz contact of campus crusade people. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/13/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: MacGregor strategy meeting- July 11. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/12/1972 From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Second Wave polling results. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/3/1972 From: Arthur J. Finkelstein To: Dr. Robert H. Marik RE: Priority states. 5 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: The new York Overnight television ratings. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/12/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic telethon. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972 From: Jeb S. MacFruder To: Clark MacGregor RE: Speakers at the Democratic National Convention. 4 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Edward D. Failor To: Clark MacGregor RE: Committee for the Reelection of the President's Activities at the Democratic National Convention. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/7/1972 From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Red Blount telephone call. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], 7/8/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 5 7/25/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention Poll. Copy of original memo attached. 4 pg. 14 5 7/11/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Post Democratic Poll. 11 pg. 14 5 7/14/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Frank Sinatra. 1 pg. 14 5 7/13/1972 Campaign Memo From; Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Rietz contact of campus crusade people. 1 pg. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 1 of 3 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 5 7/12/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: MacGregor strategy meeting- July 11. 4 pg. 14 5 7/3/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Second Wave polling results. 4 pg. 14 5 7/7/1972 Campaign Memo From: Arthur J. Finkelstein To: Dr. Robert H. Marik RE: Priority states. 5 pg. 14 5 7/12/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: The new York Overnight television ratings. 1 pg. 14 5 7/10/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic telethon. 2 pg. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 2 of 3 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 5 7/10/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Democratic Convention. 1 pg. 14 5 7/7/1972 Campaign Memo From: Jeb S. MacFruder To: Clark MacGregor RE: Speakers at the Democratic National Convention. 4 pg. 14 5 7/7/1972 Campaign Memo From: Edward D. Failor To: Clark MacGregor RE: Committee for the Re- election of the President's Activities at the Democratic National Convention. 2 pg. 14 5 7/8/1972 Personal Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Red Blount telephone call. 1 pg. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 3 of 3 ADNINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Democratic Convention Poll You suggested that a poll be conducted after the Democratic Convention, possibly on Tuesday, July 18 and Wednesday, July 19 with results Thursday, July 20, 1972. ORC is ready to conduct the poll for $7,000. On July 11, Bob Tester submitted the memorandum attached at Tab A asking Clark MacGregor's authority to conduct a similar poll. Teeter was unaware of our plans. MacGregor, through Magruder, told Teeter to prepare questions and make arrangements for such a poll on July 14, 1972. I called Tester, advised him of our plans, asked him to submit ques- tions, and told him that I would deal directly with Benham. A suggested questionnaire is attached at Tab B. The two specific substantive questions you wanted probed were the death penalty and annesty. The most recent public amnesty questionis Gallup's - "Should draft dodgers be allowed to return without punishment?" This was one of the Referendum questions asked in the four indicator counties on Julie 29-30. The results were) Should Avoid Should Not Avoid Polling Date Punishment Punishment G-Jun 29-30 31 69 Benham and Teeter believe this is a bad question because it uses "draft dodgers" and offers no alternatives. A differently worded question was asked on Wave II - "Some people have said that we ought to give amnesty immediately to those who have left the country or have gone to prison to avoid the draft during the Vietnam War. Others have said that we should not grant amnesty at this time and that we should not consider it at all until after the War is over. - 2 - However, the question was asked to obtain a scale comparison of the President's, McGovern's, and the interviewee's posi- tion. It could be adapted to the telephone interview, but Benham and Teeter recommend a different question. The new question will determine the actual amount of opposition to amnesty. Also, the Wave II results are quite recent and any trend measurement would be of little value, Gallup has asked a death penalty question since 1950. The question is: "Do you fuvor the death penalty?" The results have held between 42 and 51% in favor. The suggested trial heat questions have been changed from "In 1972 there will be another presidential election. If this election were being held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon and George McGovern, which one would you vote for?" to language suggested by Benham, and similar to that used by Gallup in 1968, The difference is the deletion of the opening statement regarding the 1972 election. Also the labels "Repubiscan" and "Democrat" are deleted pursuant to your decision of March 12, 1971. Teeter and Benham recommend that an additional question be asked with the Vice Presidential candidates listed to determine the effect of Agnew and Eagleton. Specific Republican Vice Presidential trial heat questions are not included because it is my understanding that this decision is to be deferred to a later date. Additional questions on annesty, the death penalty, the Democratic Convention, and McGovern's speech are attached at Tab C. GS/jb To conduct the interviews Tuesday and Wednesday, a final, approved questionnaire is needed by 10 a.m. PDT, Monday, July 17. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Democratic Convention Poll You suggested that a poll be conducted after the Democratic Convention, possibly on Tuesday, July 18 and Wednesday, July 19 with results Thursday, July 20, 1972. ORC is ready to conduct the poll for $7,000. On July 11, Bob Teeter submitted the memorandum attached at Tab A asking Clark MacGregor's authority to conduct a similar poll. Teeter was unaware of our plans. MacGregor, through Magruder, told Teeter to prepare questions and make arrangements for such a poll on July 14, 1972. I called Teeter, advised him of our plans, asked him to submit ques- tions, and told him that I would deal directly with Benham. A suggested questionnaire is attached at Tab B. The two specific substantive questions you wanted probed were the death penalty and amnesty. The most recent public amnesty question is Gallup's - "Should draft dodgers be allowed to return without punishment?" This was one of the Referendum questions asked in the four indicator counties on June 29-30. The results were: Should Avoid Should Not Avoid Polling Date Punishment Punishment G-Jun 29-30 31 69 Benham and Teeter believe this is a bad question because it use "draft dodgers" and offers no alternatives. A differently worded question was asked on Wave II - "Some people have said that we ought to give amnesty immediately to those who have left the country or have gone to prison to avoid the draft during the Vietnam War. Others have said that we should not grant amnesty at this time and that we should not consider it at all until after the War is over". - 2 - However, the question was asked to obtain a scale comparison of the President's, McGovern's, and the interviewee's posi- tion. It could be adapted to the telephone interview, but Benham and Teeter recommend a different question. The new question will determine the actual amount of opposition to amnesty. Also, the Wave II results are quite recent and any trend measurement would be of little value. Gallup has asked a death penalty question since 1960. The question is: "Do you favor the death penalty?" The results have held between 42 and 51% in favor. The suggested trial heat questions have been changed from "In 1972 there will be another presidential election. If this election were being held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon and George McGovern, which one would you vote for?" to language suggested by Benham, and similar to that used by Gallup in 1968. The difference is the deletion of the opening statement regarding the 1972 election. Also the labels "Republican" and "Democrat" are deleted pursuant to your decision of March 12, 1971. Teeter and Benham recommend that an additional question be asked with the Vice Presidential candidates listed to determine the effect of Agnew and Eagleton. Specific Republican Vice Presidential trial heat questions are not included because it is my understanding that this decision is to be deferred to a later date. Additional questions on amnesty, the death penalty, the Democratic Convention, and McGovern's speech are attached at Tab C. To conduct the interviews Tuesday and Wednesday, a final, approved questionnaire is needed by 10 a.m. PDT, Monday, July 17. Committee for the Re-election of the President MEMORANDUM July 11, 1972 CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER Runt SUBJECT: Post Democratic Convention Poll While our third wave of polling is scheduled, and I think properly so, for immediately after the Republican convention, I think we should consider doing a quick national phone study a few days after the Democratic Convention. This would give us some iterim guidance for the public relations and advertising people and would answer several of the questions that will undoubtedly arise after the Democratic ticket is chosen. Among the areas that should be covered in such a poll are the following: --- To identify and measure any changes in the relative strength of the President and his opposition. -- To measure the attitudes toward the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee and his effect on the ticket. -- To determine attitudes toward any significant proposals in the Democratic platform. -- To measure attitudes toward the Convention itself which might be useful both in our planning of the campaign and for the Republican Convention. This poll could also be expanded and used to test various Republican Vice Presidential candidates if that was desirable. It would cost $6,000 - $8,000 depending on the length of the questionnaire. If you agree with this pooposal, I'll draft a questionnaire the first of next week for your approval. I think the actual interviewing should take place on the weekend of July 21 - 23. Approve Disapprove Comment: CONFIDENTIAL DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION POLL Polling Dates: Respondents: 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is handling his job as President? Polling Date Approve Disapprove N.O. G-Jun 23-26, '72 56 33 11 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is handling the Vietnam situation? Polling Date Approve Disapprove N.O. G-May 26-29, '72 53 38 9 3. Do you approve or disapprove with the way President Nixon is dealing with the economic conditions in this country? Polling Date Approve Disapprove N.O. O-Jan 26-27, '72 46 45 9 4. How do you feel about information the Nixon Administration gives the public - always frank and truthful with the public, tries to make things seem more favorable than they really are, holds back or slants information that would make the Admini- stration look bad, don't know? Tries to Always Make Things Holds Don't Polling Date Frank Seem Favor. Back Know T-Jan 3-20, '72 19 47 25 9 5. Are you in favor of the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? Polling Date Favor Oppose N.O. I - 2 - DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION POLL Polling Dates: Respondents: 6. Are there any other crimes for which you favor the death penalty for convicted persons? If yes, what crimes? Murder of police officer Murder of prison guard Kidnapping Hijacking of an airplane Conviction of murder a second time Other specified Don't know 7. The Supreme Court has recently ruled that capital punish- ment as now administered in the U.S. is cruel and unusual and is therefore unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the ruling of the Supreme Court? Polling Date Agree Disagree N.O. 8. Why do you say that? 9. Some people have said that we could grant amnesty - that is, we should forgive any violations of the law - to those who left the country or went to prison to avoid serving in the Vietnam War. Do you agree or disagree with the granting of amnesty to these people? Polling Date Agree Disagree N. O. 10. How much of the Democratic Convention did you watch on TV - a great deal, some, very little or none? Polling Date Great Deal Some Very Little None 11. How much of the Republican Convention in August do you plan to watch on TV - a great deal, some, very little, or none? Polling Date Great Deal Some Very Little None ! - 3 - DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION POLL Polling Dates: Respondents: 12. The Democrats said they were going to have a completely open convention where all points of view would be heard and given fair consideration. In your opinion, did the Democratic National Convention succeed in accomplishing this or not? Polling Date Yes No N.O. 13. Did the Democratic National Convention reflect a real change in American politics or was it politics as usual? Polling Date Real Change Usual N.O. 14. From what you saw, heard or read about the Democratic National Convention, how would you describe your overall impression of it? 15. What is the first thing that comes to your mind when you think about George McGovern? 16. In general, how do you rate your reaction to what George McGovern said at the Democratic National Convention? Very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Polling Date Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable NO 17. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon and George McGovern, which one would you vote for - Nixon, McGovern, neither, undecided? Polling Date Nixon McGovern Neither Und. N.O. I - 4 - DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION POLL Polling Dates: Respondents: 18. Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, George McGovern and George Wallace as a third party candidate, which one would you vote for? Polling Date Nixon McGovern Wallace N.O. 19. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today and the Republican ticket were Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew and the Democratic ticket were George McGovern and Thomas Eagleton, which ticket would you vote for? Nixon- McGovern- Polling Date Agnew Eagleton N.O. I 1. Are you in favor of the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? In favor, against, no opinion If yes on question 1, ask question 2. 2. Are there any other crimes for which you favor the death penalty for convicted persons? If yes, what crimes? Murder of police officer Murder of prison guard Kidnapping Hijacking of an airplane Conviction of murder a second time Other specified Don't know Ask only of those who say against the death penalty on question 1 3. Are there any specific crimes for which you favor the death penalty for convicted persons? Yes, no, no opinion If yes on question 3, ask question 3a. 3a. What crimes? 4. The Supreme Court has recently ruled that capital punish- ment as now administered in the U.S. is cruel and unusual and is therefore unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the ruling of the Supreme Court? Agree, disagree, no opinion 5. Why do you say that? 6. Here are some things that have been said regarding the death penalty on which I would like your views. Do you think the death penalty for certain crimes dis- courages others from commiting those crimes, or doesn't it? Yes discourages, No does not, don't know 7. Do you think that the Supreme Court's decision to outlaw the death penalty will or will not weaken the power the force of law enforcement officers? Will weaken power, will not weaken power, no opinion 8. Until the Supreme Court's ruling some crimes were punish- able by the death penalty in some states but not in other states. Do you think that this is or is not a good reason for outlawing the death penalty? Good reason, not good reason, no opinion. -2- 9. Do you think the death penalty was administered in this country with equal fairness to all groups or were blacks and the poor treated unfairly when compared with how whites and the rich were treated? Equal fairness, blacks and poor unfairly, no opinion. 10. Some people claim that outlawing the death penalty will increase the killing of prison guards by those serving life sentences because they won't get any additional penalty. Do you agree or disagree with this? Agree, disagree, no opinion 11. Some people claim that outlawing the death penalty will make it harder for criminals sentenced to life imprisonment to get paroled. Do you think this would be a good thing or not? Good thing, not a good thing, no opinion. 12. One criticism of outlawing the death penalty is the high cost of keeping those sentenced to life imprisonment. Do you think this is or is not a good reason for keeping the death penalty for certain crimes? Good reason, not good reason, no opinion. 13. Some people say that outlawing the death penalty will encourage criminals engaged in armed robbery to kill any witnesses since the worst penalty they can get is life imprisonment. Do you think this is true or not true? True, not true, no opinion 14. Would you favor or oppose a federal law that would define uniformly for all states the specific crimes punishable by the death penalty? Yes favor, oppose, don't know 15. Another proposal is to take away from the judges and juries the determination of the punishment and make the death penalty compulsory for persons convicted of certain crimes. Would you favor or oppose this? Yes favor, oppose, no opinion 1. Do you think the delegates at the National Democratic Convention were a better representation of all the kinds of people in our country than were the delegates in previous conventions of either of the major parties? Yes, no, about the same, and no opinion. 2. The Democrats said they were going to have a completely open convention where all points of view would be heard and given fair consideration. In your opinion, did the Democratic National Convention succeed in accomplishing this or not? 3. Did the Democration National Convention reflect the real change in American politics or was it politics as usual? 4. From what you saw, heard or read about the Democratic National Convention, how would you describe your overall impression of it? 5. Now that the Democratic Party has selected its candidates for President and Vice President, do you think there is unity in the Democratic Party or do you think there is serious splits in the Party? AMNESTY QUESTION Gallup question in his July 11 poll. "Should draft dodgers be allowed to return without punishment?" Mr. Benham will work another question; does not think its a good one. 1. Some people have said that we could grant amnesty - that is we should forgive any violations of the law - to those who left the country or went to prison to avoid serving in the Vietnam War. Do you agree or disagree with the granting of amnesty to these people? 2. Do you agree or disagree with holding off the question of granting amnesty until after the Vietnam War has been settled? ** 1. How much of the Democratic Convention did you watch on TV - a great deal, some, very little or none? 2. How much of the Republican Convention in August do you plan to watch on TV - a great deal, some, very little or none? 3. How much did you see, hear or read about the Party Platform that was adopted by the Democrats at their Convention last week? A great deal, some, very little or nothing? 4. What part or parts of the Platform did you most agree with? 5. What part or parts of the Platform did you most disagree with? 6. Did you see George McGovern's acceptance speech last Thursday night on television when he accepted the Democratic nomination for President? Yes, no, don't know. If no or don't know on question 6, ask question 7. 7. Did you hear or read anything about George McGovern's acceptance speech? Yes, no, don't know If yes on either question 6 or question 7, ask question 8. 8. In general, how do you rate your reaction to what George McGovern said in his acceptance speech ( read choices except No Opinion). Very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, no opinion. 9. As you recall, what were the main points that George McGovern made in his acceptance speech? 10. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon and George McGovern, which one would you vote for? Nixon, McGovern, neither, don't know, undecided. - 2 - 11. Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, George McGovern and George Wallace as a third candidate which one would you vote for? I ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 14, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Frank Sinatra Henry Cashen checked with Roy Goodearle of the Vice President's staff regarding Frank Sinatra. Roy Goodearle and Peter Malatesta, who knows Sinatra, submitted the following information: 1) Taft Schreiber, without apparent authority, called Sinatra on behalf of the President. This was a mistake because Sinatra could not determine whether the President and Vice President wanted him to assist, 2) If Frank Sinatra were asked by the Vice President to campaign for the President, Sinatra would accept, 3) A private meeting of Sinatra and the President would not be required, 4) Sinatra is concerned about Agnew being on the ticket, and so it may be best to delay asking him until after that decision is made; 5) Nothing should be done with Sinatra until after he testifies before the Senate Crime Committee on July 18. Agnew will have dinner with Sinatra on July 17. Dean strongly recommends delaying any further action or consideration until after Sinatra's testimony. GS/jb FU - 7/19 July 13, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Ricts Centact of Campus Crusade People Ken Ricts contacted all but one of the names that you gave him and me yesterday. After discussion with MacGreger, Ricts invited the group to meet in Washington with MacGreger at 9:00 a.m., July 21. Rists will spend all morning with them working on campaign plans. Riets has asked for us to arrange substative issue briefings for the group desithe afternoon of July 21. Riets believes that Ed Harper of the Domestic Council, John Lehman of the NSC and Whitman of CEA would be adequate. Riots and MacGreger are but have not decided rather to arrange for a luncheen at the White House for the group. GS:kb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 12, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: MecGreger Strategy Meeting - July 11 Clark MacGregor met with the Campaign Strategy Group (Teeter, Magruder, Malek, Dailey, Marik, Finkelstein, and Miller) to discuss the Key States in light of Wave II polling results, MacGregor opened the meeting with two comments. He said he planned on meeting with Mitchell, Connally, and possibly Colson to determine how the Democrate for the President would be arranged. Second, he advised the group that an appropriate appreach was being made to Mayor Daley and that you had been informed, MacGregor told the group that Governor Love and Secretary Morton would be in Miami Beach to welcome disenchanted Democrats. They will also push the line that McGovern heads an extreme elitist machine that has replaced the "party of the people". The Democrats cannot be allowed to keep that label, Many liberal Democrate are calling MacGreger to indicate their concern about McGovern. MacGregor agreed with Tester that the campaign should concentrate on the great national issues and McGovern's extreme positions. It is Teeter's view that MaGovern's perception will be set in the minds of the American people in the next 2-3 weeks. MacGregor said the campaign will continue to hit McGovern through MacGregor's "Issues and Answers" appearance this Sunday, the distribution of the Wicker article, and the Pierre Rinfret discussions with economists. When Malek pressed for a single person within 1701 to run this operation, MacGregor deferred. - 2 - The Key State discussion focused on the three attached memoranda, There were two views expressed. Some thought the results showed the President so far ahead in Illinois, Texas and Ohio that the primary effort should be placed in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, New York and Michigan. All agreed Washington should be dropped, Malek led the argument to work in the big states regardless of what the polls indicate, MacGreger consluded that there should be three states for maximum effort - California, New York and Pennsylvania. New Jersey and Cook County in Illinois should also receive First Priority attention. The Second Priority states would be Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Connecticut. MacGregor also emphasised that the campaign would not shift its attention to Senatorial or Congressional races because if the President wins by 54-55%, Congressional races will be helped naturally. GS/jb TALKING PAPER In early May, Mr. Mitchell, in consultation with the Strategy Group, established three groups of priority states for the campaign: Top Priority (Maximum allocation of resources and focus of management attention. "Must win" states.) Nixon Margin (%) State Electoral Votes 1960 1968 California 45 +0.2 +3 Illinois 26 -0.3 +3 Texas 26 -2 -1 Ohio 25 +6 +2 New Jersey 17 -1 +2 139 Second Priority (High allocation of resources and management attention.) Nixon Margin (%) State Electoral Votes 1960 1968 New York 41 -6 -5 Pennsylvania 27 -2 -4 Maryland 10 -8 -2 Michigan 21 -2 -7 Connecticut 8 -8 -5 Washington 9 +3 -2 116 Third Priority (Lower allocation of resources and management attention.) Nixon Margin (%) State Electoral Votes 1960 1968 Missouri 12 -0.5 +1 Wisconsin 11 +4 +4 Oregon 6 +6 +6 West Virginia 6 -6 -9 35 - 2 - The emergence of George McGovern as the probable Democratic nominee, as well as the successful foreign policy initiatives of the President, have substantially altered his relative standing in the large population states. The purpose of this meeting is to discuss the question of whether the original priority grouping should now be changed. The factors to be considered include: 1. What is meant by priority ranking, in terms of programmatic efforts, in-state campaign organization and total resource allocation. 2. How the President stands in terms of the number of electoral votes now leaning toward him. That is, how many of the large states must we win in order to carry the election. 3. How much should the June/July polls influence our thinking-- How firm do we believe the positive or negative margins to be. Committee for the Re-election of the President DETERMINED TO BE AN MEMORANDUM ADMINISTRATIVE MARKINdy 3, 1972 By 6-102 1-14-80 CONPFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY MEMORANDUM FOR: THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Second Wave Polling Results Attached are the sample ballot results from the second wave poll- ing. The interviewing for this polling was all done between June 14 and June 25. I have noted differences in the two Nixon/ Humphrey races from the first wave where applicable. We did not measure McGovern in the first wave which was done in December and January. I will have the results from the National poll later today or tomorrow morning, the New York data in about ten days, and the Indiana data in about three weeks. The New York and Indiana polls were delayed to begin after the primary in New York and the State Nominating Convention in Indiana. Generally these results are very optimistic and indicate that the President has improved his position since January. I think it is particularly significant that his committed vote is above or very near 50% in the two-way races against McGovern in the top priority states. This, as ]. am sure you are avare, has been. a problem in the past. While our situation has improved, we still appear to have some problems in Missouri, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Washington. Also I just got-an advance report of a telephone poll taken by Decker Research for the Deston Globe in Massachusetts which will be published tomorrow. It shows McGovern with 47%, Nixon with 44%, and 9% undecided. This is obviously a most optimistic result. Re will have the complete data from this second wave polling by July 15. ] will be hoppy to discuss these figures and the first wave data at your convenience. Note: ] will i.e giving these results to Gordon Strachan of Mr. Helderen's office 03 the telephone at 5 o'clock, Pacific Tire, this overing. CITY MARKET OPINION RESEARCH BALLOT SUMMARY OF STATES 1 U.S. ALABAMA CALIFORNIA CONNECTICUT INDIANA ILLINOIS MARNIAND IW 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- IW 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- IN 2W +/- IV 2% +/- 1W 2% Nixon 54 47 65 +18 47 47 0 -- 56 --- 53 -- 56 49 58 -i- 9 Humphrey 40 18 20 +2 40 40 0 32 38 -- 34 45 36 9 Undecided 6 35 14 -21 13 13 0 -- 12 9 11 5 6 ÷ : Nixon 48 29 34 + 5 44 42 - 2 50 ---- 47 45 48 + 3 44 43 + 4 Humphrey 35 14 15 + 1 37 35 - 2 27 33 36 28 - 8 43 29 -14 Wallace 12 36 43 +7 6 13 + 7 13 11 7 15 ÷ 8 3 17 + 9 Undecided 5 21 9 -12 13 11 - 2 -- 11 8 12 10 - 2 5 6 + 1 Nixon -- 63 -- 48 -- 54 -- 56 --- -- 52 McGovern --- -- 23 -- 42 -- -- 37 --- -- 35 --- -- 42 Undecided -- -- 14 -- 11 -- 10 -- -- 10 ---- -- 6 Nixon -- 35 V --- 42 --- -- 47 -- 47 -- 44 McCovern -- 15 39 -- 33 31 35 Wallace -- 43 -- 11 --- -- 10 12 --- 16 Undecided -- 7 -- 8 --- 10 10 L. 1 First wave figures from a survey for Winton Blount, June, 1971. NOTE: Due to rounding not all columns add to 100% MARKET OPINION RESEARCH BALLOT SUMMARY OF STATES 1 MICHIGAN MISSOURT NEW JERSEY NEW YORK OHIO OREGON PLANSYLVANIA IW 2W +/- - 1W 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- IW 2W +/- 1W 2W +/ 1V 2% +/- Nixon -- 49 ----- 43 48 + 5 54 52 - 2 50 53 58 + 5 48 50 ÷ 2 49 49 0 Humphrey -- 39 ---- 45 42 - 3 36 38 ÷ 2 40 40 37 - 3 33 31 - 7 43 41 - 1.) Undecided -- 12 --- 12 10 - 2 10 10 0 10 S 5 - 3 13 19 + 6 8 10 + 1.0 Nixon -- 36 - 37 37 0 49 44 - 5 47 48 50 + 2 43 44 + 1 44 43 - - Humphrey --- 30 ---- 40 35 - 5 33 30 - 3 39 33 30 - 3 36 24 -12 41 35 - Wallace -- 24 --- 12 20 + 8 3 18 +10 5 S 15 + 7 9 18 + 9 co 13 + 5 Undecided -- 11 ---- 11 8 - 3 10 9 - 1 9 7 5 - 2 12 15 + 3 S 9 ÷ 1... Nixon -- 45 --- -- 44 --- -- 49 -------- -- 55 ----- - 42 ------------------------- -- 49 McGovern -- 451 --- -- 46 ------- --- 42 ------------------------- -- -- 38 - 45 --- -- 42 Undecided - 10 ---- -- 10 ---- -- 9 ----- -- - 6 -- 13 ----- -- 9 Nixon -- 33 --- - 35 ---- 41 47 -- 37 . -- - -- --- - 42 --- McGovern - 35 --- -- 37 ------------------------- I 36 ------ -- -- 33 --- -- 29 ----- --- 33 --- Wallace - 23 --- 20 --- - 16 ----- -- -- 15 --- -- 15 --- -- 12 ----- Undecided -- 8 --- -- 8 -- S -- 5 ------ - 10 ----- -- (i) 1 First wave figures from a survey for Robert Griffin, February, 1972 with Muskie, not Tumphrey, CS opponent. NOTE: Due to rounding not all columns add to 100% MICHIGAN 1W MICHIGAN 1W Nixon 41 Nixon 3S Muskie 42 Muskie 40 Undecided 17 Wallace 7 Undecided 15 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH BALLOT SUMMARY OF STATES WASHINGTON WISCONSIN TEXAS 1W 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- 1W 2W +/- Nixon -- 45 46 56 +10 49 55 +6 Humphrey --- 39 46 35 -11 40 35 - 5 Undecided -- 16 7 9 +2 11 10 - 1 Nixon -- 38 44 48 + 4 42 43 + 1 Humphrey --- 32 42 31 -11 35 28 - 8 Wallace 17 --- 8 12 + 4 12 22 +10 Undecided -- 13 7 9 + 2 11 7 - 4 Nixon -- 41 ---- -- 44 ----- -- 54 -- McCovern 45 ---- -- 52 ------ -- 35 - Undecided -- 13 ---- 5 ---- -- 11 Nixon -- 34 ---- - 39 ----- 42 McCovern -- 39 ----- -- 47 ------ -- 29 Wallace -- 16 ---- -- 10 --- -- 22 Undecided 12 - 4 -- 7 NOTE: Due to rounding not all columns add to 100%. Committee for the Re-election of the Presider.t MEMORANDUM July 7, 1972 TO: Dr. Robert H. Marik FROM: Arthur J. Finkelstein &F SUBJECT: Priority States Please find attached several charts depicting my thinking on the electoral vote situation that would exist in a Nixon-McGovern contest. As you can tell the Nixon total electoral vote surpasses by 16, the 270 votes needed for election. Further, there is an additional 188 electoral votes which realistically can still be considered undecided. Due to recent information, states such as Illinois, Maryland and Ohio have been added to the safe Nixon total. Wisconsin, Oregon and Missouri have been added to the McGovern total. Of the 188 undecided electoral votes, on the basis of recent information and past election analyses, it can be assumed that 104 are leaning to Nixon. With New York State's 41 electoral votes kept completely in the undecided column, the President receives a stunning 390 electoral votes, the making of a real electoral landslide. Considering the possibility of an electoral landslide, it would make great sense to solidify those states which would clearly give us the margin of victory. Therefore, our priority states should be those which are not sure states but large electoral states now leaning slightly to the President. California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey fit this criteria. I would also add Connecticut, New York and Michigan because of the very nature of the clossness of this election. You will note that I suggest dropping five presently targeted states either because we have secured them or because to win them would take more effort than frankly is essential or necessary for this campaign. Three of those five states dropped, Texas, Illinois and Ohio, account for 77 electoral votes which should be constantly kept track of. I would suggest greater than normal emphasis upon the states organizationally and the use of the telephone operations. - 2 - Dr. Robert H. Marik July 7, 1972 Finally I include a list of third priority states which are chosen because of the strength of the President. None of these ten states are target states. All of these ten states will have senatorial contests in 1972, where Republicans can either hold on to a seat (Kentucky), or as in the case of the other nine, gain a seat. In each of these states with the exception of Rhode Island, a Nixon--Senatorial Candidate Campaign would be helpful to the Republican Senatorial candidate's chances. Since the Republicans only need to gain five or six seats in the Senate to take control of that body, I would strongly suggest that the campaign strategy develop which would emphasize in these areas the ideal Republican ticket. A. J. F. AJF: Attachments cc: J. Magruder PRIORITY STATES First Priority 1. California - 45 A 2. Pennsylvania - 27 3. New Jersey - 17 4. Connecticut - 8 B 5. New York - 41 6. Michigan - 21 159 Second Priority 1. Texas - 26 2. Illinois - 26 3. Ohio - 25 77 Third Priority 1. Alabama - 9 2. Georgia - 12 * 3. Kentucky - 9 4. Montana - 4 5. New Hampshire - 4 6. New Mexico - 4 7. North Carolina - 13 8. Oklahoma - 8 ** 9. Rhode Island - 4 10. Virginia - 12 TOTAL STATES N M U Alabama 9 3 Alaska Arizona 6 Arkansas 6 45 California Colorado 7 8 Connecticut Delaware 3 D. C. 3 Florida 17 Georgia 12 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Illinois 26 Indiana 13 Iowa 8 Kansas 7 Kentucky 9 Louisiana 10 4 Maine Maryland 10 Massachusetts 14 21 Michigan Minnesota 10 Mississippi 7 Missouri 12 Montana 4 Nebraska 5 Nevada 3 New Hampshire 4 17 New Jersey New Mexico 4 New York 41 North Carolina 13 North Dakota 3 Ohio 25 Oklahoma 8 Oregon 6 27 Pennsylvania Rhode Island 4 South Carolina 8 4 South Dakota Tennessee 10 Texas 26 Utah 4 Vermont 3 Virginia 12 9 Washington 6 West Virginia Wisconsin 11 Wyoming 3 286 64 188 UNDECIDED STATES N M U Alaska 3 California 45 Connecticut 8 Maine 4 Michigan 21 Nevada 3 New Jersey 17 New York 41 Pennsylvania 27 South Dakota 4 Washington 9 West Virginia 6 - - 104 43 41 Safe 286 64 -- - 390 107 41 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 12, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON SERACHAN The New York Overnights were: Rating Share CBS 11.5 27 NBC 10.6 25 ABC 9.1 20 Attached are Carruthers, Moore and Snyder's comments. CBS has been advised that the session this evening should be over by 12:30 a.m. (Last night CBS did not run commercials from 4-6:30 a.m. because all the technicians had fallen asleep from Noredom.) GS/jb - ADNINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Democratic Telethon You have the comments by Cliff White, Ed Failor, Dwight Chapin, Chuck Colson, and Jerome Jaffe that the Democrats' Telethon was "remarkably poor". You asked for the views of other staff members and campaign personnel: Peter Dailey: "A disaster, peorly organized and executed." The only plus was the constant repetition of the Democrate being the "party of the people". The marginal voters would have to look at the production and decide that if the Demo- crats can't run a television production, how could they run the country? Pat Buchanan: "Not very good, insulting, tasteless, dumb, unimpressive, probably counter-productive." The poor staging, and strange entertainment couldn't have helped the Democrats. One of the Democrate that Buchanan talked to agreed that it was a disaster. Fred LaRue: "A disaster, poorly presented, snafued, Moubt it will pay for itself. Many Democrats are well aware it was a disaster." Dick Moore: "A big disappointment from the Democrats stand- point a shambles ... laid an egg: we avoided a bullet by not responding; yet we need to get out the fact that it cost over $2 million and most will go to old contributors and telephone company (Colson and Clawson are working on this), there was little punch; some dollars and no votes." The only surprise among the celebrities was the low number and quality. - 2 - Ken Clawson: "Very poorly done, very badly handled, poor television, the credibility of actors in the political area is phoney as hell." Clawson is trying to place a column which will make these points: 1) The underwriting is misunderstood, the actual costs were $2.5 million and Brown only guaranteed the costs, he did not contribute $2.5 million, 2) The credit card companies will rake up 5-78, 3) The Telethon slighted LBJ by never mentioning his name among the great Democratic Presidents, and 4) When the Western White House number was given, the board was busy for 90 minutes with people calling in to support the President. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Democratic Convention Discussion with Bill Timmons, Ed Failor and Jeb Magruder this morning developed several points which will update the attached July 7, 1972 Democratic Convention Schedule: 1) The July 9 O'Brien and O'Hara decision that 1,433 instead of an absolute majority of 1,509 will decide the Celifornia Challenge is correct from a parliamentary rules standpoint. Therefore, it will be hard for the Humphrey forces to challenge even though the decision favors McGovern. Most believe McGovern has the 1,433 votes, 2) The July 9 O'Brien and O'Hara decision that the 120 California-MoGovern delegates can vote on the makeup of the rest of the delegation is also a victory for McGovern and will be hard for Humphrey to challenge; 3) The California Challenge is procedurally scheduled fourth. This too favors McGovern because the Humphrey forces are not expected to be able to mount their opposition to the 1,433 ruling during the first three votes; 4) O'Brien's strategy is to wear the delegates out by waiting until two or three a.m. and then rushing the Illinois decision through. It is expected that Daley will be denied his seat in any event, If O'Brien's strategy doesn't work, the Convention's first session will continue tomorrow. O'Brien, as Temporary Chairman, will open the session tonight at 7:30 EDT, 4:30 PDT. GS/jb Committee for the Re-election of the President 1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920 July 7, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR FROM: JEB S. MAGRUDER SUBJECT: Speakers at the Democratic National Convention As has been requested the attached outline of the speakers at the Democratic National Convention gives some indication of what issues will be important. This has been prepared by Ed Failor of the Re-slect Committee and Bob Chase of the RNC. DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION SCHEDULE Monday, July 10 I. Welcoming remarks, Senator Lawton Chiles (D-Fla.) II. Opening address, National Chairman Lawrence F. O'Brien III. Credentials Committee report, debate, votes. 1. California - The important factor to watch concerning California is how the convention rules on what portion of the delegation can vote on their own challenge. A ruling that 120 McGovern delegates can vote on the make-up of the rest of the delegation would be a significant victory for the Senator and probably make it impossible to deny him the nomination. 2. Illinois - Present indications are there 1s no way Daley can win this one. If he does win, assume a deal has been worked out with the McGovern operatives and watch for signs of slippage as a result of McGovern's more idealistic supporters. 3. There will be at least a half dozen other floor fights but few of them will be significant. Texas may come up on the floor and cause problems but again the California and Illinois fights will be the most important and significant. Some Southern delegates may also lobby for the Mississippi Regulars who were soundly defeated by the loyalists in Committee. 4. Humphrey delegates may use this stage of the convention to attempt to pass a "loyalty oath" requirement thus indirectly attacking McGovern's threat to bolt the party. This could turn into another symbolic battle. IV. Election of permanent convention chairman and vice chairman, o' Brien - Chairman and Yvonne Brathwaite* All efforts are being made to keep this election free of power plays by the various contenders. If there are "hot debates" on this question the convention will be tearing itself apart. If not -- then the various candi- dates will still be exercising enough influence on their delegates to keep the convention together. V. Rules Committee report, debate, votes. 1. The Rules Committee has urged passage of some very radical changes that will be opposed by party regulars. Look for fight over: *Mrs. Brathwaite 1s a Black attorney, assembly women from Los Angeles, California, and a nominee for a House seat. -2- a. A proposal requiring Democrate to buy a card before they participate in party affairs. b. Off-year conventions to take stands on issues. c. The relegation of Democratic office holders to second-class status in party affairs. House Democrats voted against these changes in a recent caucus. Tuesday, July 11 I. Keynote address, Governor Reubin Askew (D-Fla.) II. Address by Senate Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield III. Platform Committee report, debates, votes. 1. Bussing will be brought to the floor by Wallace delegates. Possibility of a walk-out on this issue depending on which way it goes. 2. Look for McGovern delegates, on their own, pressing for con- troversial left-wing planks which were-left out in the Platform Committee hearings. This could cause real problems for McGovern's chances of unify- ing the party. 3. Humphrey forces may try a platform plank to denounce "left- wing" extremists who want to take over the Democratic Party for their own ends. IV. Address by House Democratic Leader Hale Boggs (La.) Wednesday, July 12 I. Address by House Speaker Carl Albert (D-Okla.) II. Nominations and balloting for Presidential nominee. McGovern must get it by second ballot -- after that it's anyone's ball game. III. Address by Governor Marvin Mandel (Md.), next chairman of the National Governor's Conference. -3- Thursday, July 3 I. Nominations and balloting for Vice Presidential nominee. II. Acceptance addresses by Vice Presidential and Presidential nominees. Adjournment Each session will begin at 7:00 p.m. (EDT). No substantive business will be scheduled after midnight. If debate on credentials, rules, and plat- form cannot be concluded by midnight, adjournment will be until 2:00 p.m. the following afternoon. Committee for the Re-election of the President EMORANDUM CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY July 7, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR THROUGH: JEB S. MAGRUDER FROM: EDWARD D. FAILOR SUBJECT: Committee for the Re-election of the Président's Activities at the Democratic National Convention OBJECTIVES: To have two spokesmen in Miami to publicly welcome Democrats who desire to support the President in '72. Secondarily, to have the ability to have our spokesmen go on television in response to any attack, if 80 directed by 1701 and to maintain an on site observation post to assess the convention activities and to make a political assessment daily to 1701. CONCEPT: Secretary Morton and Governor Love will be based in a three room suite that has been reserved at the Fountainbleu Hotel. On Wednesday and Thursday following the McGovern nomination our two spokesmen will have press conferences to welcome Democrats to the Nixon team as a response to McGovern's extreme views and the President's outstanding record and abilities. These defections will be newsworthy and will tie in with our strategy to announce the Democrate for Nixon organization the following week. SUPPORT: This activity will be supported in Miami by Ed Failor, coordi- nator; Powell Moore, press officer; two writers from 1701; secretaries from Miami; two telecopiers; security officers; and stenographic service to provide instant transcripts of press conferences. We will have people manning ten tape recorders and following Democratic candidates and other V.I.P. Democrats to record public and semi-public statements they make to catch slips, conflicting CONFIDENTIAL The Honorable Clark MacGregor - July 7, 1972 Page 2 statements and/or damaging statements which might be made under Convention pressures. RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended that above plan be adopted. Approve: Disapprove Comments: RATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL July 8, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Red Blount Telephone Call Former Postmaster General Red Blount called for you today. I talked directly with him, but he would only disclose the subject - convention policy. He had not talked to MacGregor but had discussed the subject with Mitchell before the change. Blount indicated he would talk to MacGregor but wants to talk with you in any event. Be will be in Chicago on Monday and would appreciate a call then. GS:E car