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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/30/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Ehrlichman Suggestion Polling Information. 2 pgs. 14 13 8/29/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Campaign Polls - Wave III. 1 pg. 14 13 8/28/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: Larry Higby RE: Phone call to Ellsworth. 1 pg. 14 13 8/28/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Thank you Letters and Certificates for the campaign. 1 pg. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 1 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/25/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: Ray Price RE: Thank You Letters. 1 pg. 14 13 8/28/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Campaign use of Mamie and Utica Films. 1 pg. 14 13 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: T.V. Rating Comparison of Democrat and Republican Conventions. 2 pgs. 14 13 8/26/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Campaign Polls - Wave III. 1 pg. 14 13 8/24/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: McGovern/Shriver -- Press Reaction to Trips August 24. 5 pgs. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 2 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/23/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Demonstrations - RNC Convention. 3 pgs. 14 13 8/22/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: New York Financial Community for president Nixon. 1 pg. 14 13 8/18/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Opinion. 1 pg. 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Survey. 4 pgs. 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Surveys. 2 pgs. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 3 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/14/1972 Campaign Other Document Phone Conversation between Gordon Strachan and John Davies regarding campaign. 3 pgs. 14 13 7/13/1972 Campaign Memo From: Larry Higby To: Gordon Strachan RE: Gallup Index -- June '72. One page of handwritten notes attached. 2 pgs. 14 13 8/17/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Spock - California Ballot. 1 pg. 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Campaign Polls - Wave II Teeter Analyses. 3 pgs. 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Vietnam/Amnesty/National Defense. 4 pgs. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 4 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Abortion Memo. 2 pgs. 14 13 8/11/1972 Campaign Memo From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Teeter's Abortion Memo. 1 pg. 14 13 8/11/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Abortion. 2 pgs. 14 13 8/15/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: Roy Goodearle RE: Vice President'a Appearance. 3 pgs. 14 13 7/25/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: Gordon Strachan RE: Issue and Appearance Data from Second Wave Polling. 36 pgs. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 5 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 14 13 8/7/1972 Campaign Memo From: Robert M. Teeter To: Clark MacGregor RE: Wave III Schedule. 2 pgs. Wednesday, January 05, 2011 Page 6 of 6 Presidential Materials Review Board Review on Contested Documents Collection: H. R. Haldeman Box Number: 240 Folder: Strachan HRH only Chron August 1972 Part II Document Disposition 53 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/30/72 54 Retain Open 55 Return Private/Political Memo Strachen to HRH 8/29/72 56 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/28/72 57 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/28/72 58 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan 1Snyder to HRH N.D. 59 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/26/70 60 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/24/72 61 Retain Open 62 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/23/72 63 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/22/72 64 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/18/72 65 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/17/72 66 Retain Open 67 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/15/20 68 Return Private/Political Memo Strachan to HRH 8/15/72 69 Return Private/Political Memo Price to HRH 8/15/77 70 Retain Close Invasion of Privacy Memo Strachan to HRH 8/11/20 71 Return Private/Political Mano Strachan to HRH 8/11/72 72 Retain Open 73 Retain Open 74 Return Private/Political Handwritten notes "Line -devel + distrib N.D August 30, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Whrlichman Suggestion re: Polling Information John Ehrlichman has suggested that "comprehensive and current polling results" be available on the plane as the President travels to various states this fall. He suggests wither you have it on board ON that Roy Morey obtain it from Teeter to be submitted to John Ehrlmchman. The current compilation of Wave I and Wave II campaign polls for all states and the national survey is in the two three ring binders you have in your office. These books could be carried as part of the regular campaign plane materials. An alternative would be to send with you only the 10 page summary of each state poll where the President will visit. The state books will be updated with the Wave III materials on September 20. The state summanies will include all Wave I, II and III material so that trends since January 1972 can be noted. When the Wave IV, "rolling wave," constant telephone polling system is established for the last six weeks of the campaign, the results will be given to you immediately, either by telephone to Higby or by dex. The timing of this information is crucial as advertising allocation decisions will have to be made quickly. I would recommend against submitting "comprehensive and current polling results" other than Teeter, Gallup and Harris to the plane. Many newspaper - 2 - and candidate polls must be checked as to reliability of pollster, size of sample and interviewing method before deserving careful consideration. As to the suggestion that Rov Morey work directly with Teetr, then analyze the material, then submit it to Ehrlichman, I believe the additional layer and resultant time delay would not be productive. You will have all the facts available and can review them personally with Ehrlichman as appropriate for interpretation. Also, ORC will probably be doing private polls directly for you from time to time. For Ehrlichman to have the "comprehensive and current polling results" he should receive all of the ORC results. This would necessitate my reviewing with Morey our past polling practices and results so that the benefit of constant questions and trend would not be lost. To change the current polling system to one reporting to Ehrlichman through Roy Morey for the next 69 days runs a high risk of slippage and poor performance. GS:car August 29, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Polls - Wave III On August 20 you approved the schedule for the Campaign Polls .. Wave III suggested by Tester. He has now submitted the suggested questionnaires and list of states for your approval. MacGreger is not taking an active role in the evaluation of the questions and states so Tester is relying on you for direction. Tector seeks approval on the questionnaires by Wednesday, August 30. The vendors would go in the field September 5 and the preliminary report would be available September 18. The national survey and all the state surveys would be in field personal interviews as distinguished from a telephone survey. The total cost of Wave III as proposed by Tester is $200,0 -- $40, 000 under his 1701 budget. To add a state for a personal interview survey would cost approximately $14-18, 000, depending on the state and number of interviews required. As to the substantive questions, Tester has included the detailed amnesty question (#15) at Ehrlichman's request. Ehrlichman recom- mended against measuring a mere change in the public's attitude about amnesty by using the Wave II question. The questions (#12-17) on Inflation and taxes are included because of requests by Ehrlich- man's staff (Engman and Morey). The questions on the Watergate incident (#25-27) are suggested by Tester. Extra copies of the suggested questionnaire are attached should you want to discuss it with Ehrlichman and others in California. Since it is currently scheduled to be the last personal interview survey of the campaign, you may want to have it staffed thoroughly. GS:jb:GS:LH:kb THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: August 28, 1972 TO: LARRY HIGBY FROM: GORDON STRACHAN You mentioned in Florida that Bob would make this call to Ellsworth. Jeb will meet with him Wednesday morning before Ellsworth leaves the country for a few days. Jeb urges that Bob make the call today or tomorrow to establish the project with Ellsworth before Jeb meets with him. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 28, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Thank You Letters and Certificates for the Campaign On Saturday, August 26, Ray Price and I discussed the request for thank you letters described in the August 25 memorandum attached. He asked that copies be forwarded to Roland Elliott and Lee Husbner, who is taking Gergen's place for one week. Humbner will do the staff work and Elliott will supervise the drafting. The celebrities list prepared by Ray Caldiero has been delivered to Ray Price in California. Copies will be used here in Washington by Roland Elliott and Lee Huebner to prepare the appropriate letters as quickly as possible. Discussion with Ray Price on Saturday, August 25 regarding the Presidential certificate to be sent to participants at the Convention resulted in the delegation of the project to Lee Huebner, He met this morning with Sandy Fox's office (Bill Gemmell) to review the language. Only the name of the individual will be hand lettered to assure quick production. A mockup will be sent to you for approval, hopefully on the August 29 cumrier. Magruder, Chapin, Malek, Moore, and Riets have been asked for suggested lists of recipients. Bill Timmons is unavailable until September 5, but Stan Anderson is compiling lists from Jon Foust and Bill Henkel and will review the final proposed GS/jb list on Wednesday, August 30. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 25, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: RAY PRICE FROM: GORDON STRACHAN The President wants to send letters to all of the seconders at the Convention; also other individuals at the Convention who played a key role. Would you talk with Dick Moore, who will be in California, to develop a list of those who should receive these letters as well as notations from Dick regarding their role so that the letters can be appropriately worded. In addition, the President wants to send a "Presidential watch" to the seconders and Rockefeller with the note from the Presi- dent. Steve Bull can acquire the "Presidential watches" for you. Would you advise me of the status of thes project on Monday, August 28? You should also know that the President will be sending letters to all of the celebrities who attended the Convention and supported him. Ray Caldiero ower at 1701 with Jeb Magruder is preparing a list of participation. CC: Dave Gergen Steve Bull GS/jb FU - 8/28 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 28, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Use of Mamie and Utica Films Discussion with Peter Dailey on Friday, August 24 disclosed that he and his advertising people had not seen the Mamie videotape used Monday afternoon at the Convention. A copy has been obtained by Mark Goode and Dailey, Joanou, and Taylor will review it on Wednesday, August 30 and submit a recommendation. Similarly, Mark Goode is obtaining the regular film crew coverage of Utica for possible editing and use for the campaign. When the processing of the film has been completed and Dailey, Joanou and Taylor have reviewed them this week, they will submit a proposal. GS/jb MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDEN STRAEHAN AL SNYDER SUBJECT: T.V. Rating Comparison of Democrat and Republican Conventions The attached pages compare the T.V. Ratings of the Democrat and Republican Convention. All obtainable information is presented. There are three pages for each session. The first contains the New York Overnights by the quarter-hour secments for the three networks and independent stations with the Democrats on the ton half and Republicans on the bottem half of the page. The second contains the Los Angeles Overnights by half-hour segments with the same format. The New York Overnights are only available in quarter- hour segments, and the Los Angeles Overnights are only available in half-hour segments. The third page is the national projection from a seventy city summary. It shows the average rating for each network during common coverage. National projections are not available on a half-hour or cuarter-hour lasis. The pages include all the information on New York and Los Angeles Overnights for the Democrats, and the New York Overnights for the Republicans. The Los Angeles Overnights for the Republicans will be available by 10 a.m. PDT on Mondad. Also included are the national projections for the Republican Convention. The Los Angeles Overnights for the Republican Convention will be obtained from a Metromedia Vice President In Los Angeles hopefully at 10 a.m. PDT. Similarly the national projections for the Democrats Convention will be obtained from ABC in New York, hopefully fitoli a.m. PDT. These figures will be added to the attached pages. The actual Noilsen ratings should be available the week of August 28 - September 1. They will be available in 2 The actual Neilsen ratings should be available the week of August 28 through September 1. They will be available in guarter-hour and half hour segments, but the average will be very close to the attached 70 city National projections. The time and rating of three other major Presidential addresses were: Southeast Asia Address: Monday, May 8, 1972, 9-9:17 p.m. EDT 53.7 State of Union Address: Thursday, January 20, 1972, 12:30- 1:05 p.m. EDT 24.8 Wage - Price Freeze: Sunday August 15, 1971, 9-9:20 p.m. EDT 40.2 August 26, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Polls - Wave III On August 20 you approved the schedule for the Campaign Polls -- Wave III suggested by Teeter. He has now submitted the suggested questionnaires and list of states for your approval. MacGregor is not taking an active role in the evaluation of the questions and states so Teeter is relying on you for direction. Teeter seeks approval on the questionnaires by Tuesday, August 29. The vendors would go in the field September 5 and the preliminary report would be available September 18. The national survey and all the state surveys would be in field personal interviews as dis- tinguished from a telephone survey. The total cost of Wave III as proposed by Teeter is $200,000 -- $40,000 under his 1701 budget. To add a state for a personal interview survey would cost approxi- mately $14-18, 000, depending on the state and number of interviews required. As to the substantive questions, Teeter has included the detailed amnesty question (#15) at Ehrlichman's request. Ehrlichman recom- mended against measuring a mere change in the public's attitude about amnesty by using the Wave II question. The questions (#12-17) on inflation and taxes are included because of requests by Ehrlich- man's staff (Engman and Morey). The questions on the Watergate incident (#25-27) are suggested by Tester. Extra copies of the suggested questionnaire are attached should you want to discuss it with Ehrlichman and others in California. Since it is currently scheduled to be the last personal interview survey of the campaign, you may want to have it staffed thoroughly. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: McGovern/Shriver - Press Reaction to Trips August 24 McGovern The Parker Schedule of McGovern lists three events -- 1) St. Paul Labor Reception; 2) address American Federation of Teachers; and 3) address to VFW. Excerpts from the wires include the following: VFW - AP In contrast to the polite reception the American Legion gave McGovern in Chicago Wednesday, the www greeted practically all the Senator had to say with stony silence. The 1,500 or so VFW delegates appeared stunned when cheering, applause and whistles broke out in the spectators' gallery as McGovern entered the Minneapolis auditorium. Several hundred spectators were obviously McGovern supporters who turned out to blunt whatever demonstration against McGovern might have occurred from the Veterans, whose conven- tion so far this week has been directed largely at denunciation of those opposed to the Vietnam War. There also was no response when he said that America is the greatest nation in the world and "I would gladly give my life for this country." UPI - none as of 5:45 EST - 2 - AFT - AP St. Paul, Minn. -- Sen. George McGovern today received cheers and applause, a $250,000 campaign pledge and the first endorsement of a Presidential candidate by the American Teachers Federation in its 56-year history. Several times during his talk to the AFT, of which he is a member, the Democratic Presidential candidate was halted by applause. Twice delegates gave him standing ovations lasting nearly a minute. Endorsement of the South Dakota Senator came shortly after he left the Convention Hall in St. Paul to address the National Convention in Minneapolis of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, where he got a frosty reception. Delegates at the Convention of the 300,000-member teacher organisation rose to their feet to applaud McGovern when he said teachers should have the right to strike without facing a threat of jail. He received another standing ovation when he said, "Teachers and other school employees must be guaranteed the right to strike." AFT - UPI McGovern received a ringing endorsement from Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, who told a reception for members of the American Federation of Teachers and union leaders at St. Paul, "Quit listening to all this doom and gloom stuff" and join in McGovern's campaign for the Presidency. "The only thing that can defeat us is ourselves," Humphrey said. Acknowledging "We"ve had some disagreements" in the primary campaign, Humphrey, who lost the Democratic Presi- dential nomination to MoGovern, said the important thing was to retire Nixon. "To put it frankly, he's not your friend," Humphrey said. McGovern said the central issue in the campaign was which sort of man the American people want to lead them: "An Administration that serves the forces of privilege and greed, or one which is in the best interests of the ordinary people of this country." - 3 - Miscellaneous - Chicago/Minneapolis UPI While he was in Chicago, McGovern met with Mayor Richard Daley and at a news conference afterwards the Mayor again gave his grudging support to the Democratic nominee. Later, when he arrived in Minneapolis, a crowd of several hundred -- including several who interrupted his talk shout- ing "What about Gay rights?" - greeted him. He told them the GOP Convention was "The most manipulated, public rebations oriented convention in the history of the country." "... only the converted and gullible could believe the words we heard from Miami this week," he said in remarks prepared for the teachers convention. Shriver The Parker Schedule for Shriver shows three events -- 1) Cincinnati Executive Board, International Molders, AFL-CIO Press Conference, 2) Pittsburgh-Levenson Steel Cost and 3) County Democratic Picnic. The wires include the following exceppts: UPI - Cincinnati Sargent Shriver characterised Presidential aide Henry Kissinger yesterday as a "Superman and Mighty Mouse all in one" who is frantically trying to end the Vietnam War before the November election. Shriver, addressing a crowd of several thousand enthusastic supporters in a brief rally at Fountain Square here, also attacked the Nixon Administration's economic record as the worst since the time of Herbert Hoover. Last night he attended a reception of local Democrats. The Executive Board of the 80,000 member International Molders and Allied Workers Union voted today to endorse Democratic Presidential nominee George McGovern because "He has consistently championed the cause of the Union members." - 4 - Shriver (cont) AP - Cincinnati Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Sargent Shriver today received the endorsement of a 75,000-member AFL-CIO union and called President Nixon the world's "No. 1 Warmaker." Declaring he and George McGovern probably would be defeated in a landslide if the election were held now, Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Sargent Shriver has received little encouragement from two Deep South governors. Ending the southern half of his second campaign grip with an Atlanta rally and a chat with farmers, Shriver headed into Ohio and the industrial North, where he again attacked President Nixon's Vietnam policies. Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Sargent Shriver today received the endorsement of a 75,000-member AFL-CIO union and called President Nixon the world's "No. 1 Warmaker." Miscellaneous AP A California Poll released today gives President Nixon an 8 per cent lead over Senator George McGovern in the fight for California's 45 electoral votes, In the poll of 1,032 adults selected at random, Nixon captured virtually 9 out of 10 Republican votes and 25 per cent of the Democratic votes. Pollster Mervin D. Field said Nixon's lead was particularly significant since Democratic registration in the state is at an all-time high - 5.1 million - and the Democratic registration plurality over Republicans is also at an all- time high - 1.7 million. Another factor in Nixon's lead, Field said, was his strength among newly enfranchised 18-20 year-olds and among 21-24 year-olds who were too young to vote in 1968, - 5 - AP - A newly formed national security committee for Sen. George McGovern has criticised Republican charges that the Demo- cratic Presidential candidate's plan to out military spending is isolationistic and dangerous for America. "A defense budget of $50 billion to $60 billion is anything but an isolationist budget," the committee co-chairman, former Asst. Secretary of Defense Paul C, Warnke, said Wednesday. The CBS radio news at 5 p.m. EST opened with a voice tape of the President at Utica and a reference to the Chicago stop. The reporter noted the President was going on to San Diego on this first campaign swing. After an ad, the announcer noted that Vice President Agnew had said that he was going to wipe away the old image and speak only of positive issues. The announcer then noted that there was little reaction to McGovern by the yyw though the AFT was very friendly. The "ringing endorsement" from Humphrey followed. The reporter noted the Shriver press conference quote that the President was the No. 1 Warmaker and that Shriver had received the endorsement of the Molders Union. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 23, 1972 4:15 pm MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Demonstrations - RNC Convention The best available information from John Dean regarding demonstrators' activities tonight includes: 1) 2,000-2,500 are currently massed in Flamingo Park; total available demonstrators 3,000; 2) Demonstrators' reconnaissance teams (2-10) are sur- veying Convention Center and access routes; 3) The demonstrators' plan (subject to quick revision) is to concentrate on key intersections and to try to block entrances; 4) Some "trashing" by Attics Brigade and Zippies is expected; 5) There are "plenty of police" in area and the cooperation with local officials is now very good; 6) The local Judge upheld the order directing police to "enforee the law" .e.agrests will be made as needed); 7) Total arrests until 4 p.m. is 230; with $250 bond imposed; 8) Washington Avenue has been conceded to the demonstrators. They would have to move against that fence to get within the Convention perimater; 9) Meridian Avenue (rear access to the Convention) will be lined with buses from 17th to Dade. This should prevent demonstrators from delaying vehicular access to the Center; 10) Rain is expected. - 2 - Fred Fielding will be on the scene at the Octagon. Dean and Wilson will be at Security Command Post at the Doral. Fielding and Dean will be on Sierra. Diagram attached. Car Enter with Red UIF Pass Meridian Dade a 05 of 05 06 OF 08 09 O/O on oz 00 am as as OF ors ore 6 02/ 022 023 024 025 026 027 OZB 029 030 031 032 035 034 035 036 037 038 039 040 ON 042 045 are 0.5 2 Enter Chapin On Foot CBS ABC NBC ** Control to Chapin 1 Trailer AIR cour T 6 H BLDO cour REXT 172 & 7 - 6/5 * #: = A E i $ AT e 8 - a I - 49 age H - rur DATE PLATFORM TU , , GATE 7 PRESS BAND GATE 6 GATE 5 GATE P.1 P-2 P-3 P-9 P-10 I 4 Ited 10 - - - P-4 - P-5 P-7 P-8 65 are 2 69 9 64 " A.C.A 9 PAS ABC 3 & 11 PODIUM CBS NBC 72 89 63 A B J K 2 WATER DELEGATES was TVDC Y 8330 4 a - - 71 67 62 USSS I MD C 0 E H L M NORTH - F 2122 $ G RED D 9 6 2 70 99 19 Parking KLER LIFE ROOM 0001 Address GATE 9 ALTERNATES FOR GATE 4 N 0 T U 78.28 P Q R S III - see - 13 17 2 99 52 H.TE TELCO ******* : COMM DEPT PRESS PRESS 14 18 22 2 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 6 55 51 16 ***** 15 3 9 19 8 64 09 2 - - were M TRANS - 16 20 37 38 39 40 45 46 47 48 9 F 57 53 49 2 PHOTOGRAPHERS INDEPENDENTS - - - - - 33 34 35 36 41 42 43 44 - GATE * GATE 18 GATE 2 GRITE - CAUCUL ROOM 1 MIAMI BEACH 19 2478 VETERANS - MEN 1 PATER - CONVENTION HALL - 20 = 1 well PASSAGE . - Inmax - 21 Feduced == 1 W ** I 22 i i S 2 PROCE I 4 23 L MIAMI BEACH CONVENTION COMPLEX Timmons 14 MIAMI BEACH AUDITORIUM Command Post BEACH ORIDA 25 Washington 26 27 Octagon Observation 28 29 30 02 8 OF 05 % 07 00 09 ao Oil O/Z 0/3 014 015 0/6 OIT 018 as OZO OZI OZZ. 023 024- 025 CEL OZ7 028 029 030 ou 032 033 034 055 006 037 058 039 040 041 042 043 044 045 15 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 22, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: New York Financial Community for President Nixon Magruder reviewed your suggestions on Bob Ellsworth's New York Financial Community memorandum with Peter Flanigan and then Bob Ellsworth - pursuant to your request. Flanigan concurred with your views. In discussion with Ellsworth, Magruder learned that Bob Ellsworth is most anxious to have you call him personally to ask him to undertake this project. Apparently, there is some 1968 background explaining the request that you talk with Ellsworth personally. A Talking Paper based on the Ellsworth revisions of the memorandum is attached. GS/jb August 18, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR H.R. HALDEMAN FROM 1 GORDON STRACHAN The most recent Gallup Opinion Indes is attached. Davies, at Gallup, thought you might be interested in the comparison of the Democrate platform and the rank and file views. You have seen some of the Gallup referendum material on page 6 - 9 which shows only Democratic views. The selection of the Vice President candidate should be made by the voters (63%) instead of the current process (31%) accord- ing to a pre-Eagleton poll (Apr 28 - May 1) reported on page 10. Gallup asked "In your opinion, which is most responsible for inflation - government, business or labor?" On page 11 the demographics are reported which show that 39% blame the Government, 20% blame Business, and 29% blame Labor, while 14% had no opinion on the polling dates Apr 21 - 24, 1972. Bob Tecter's Wave II asked a similar question - "Do you think business, labor unions, the President, Congress or the consumer is most responsible for rising prices and inflation? " The results were: Bus Uns P Coag Consum T- Jun 16-26 26 37 8 9 17 (National) The Nixon-McGovera demographic material on page 4 will be included in the Gallup materials mentioned in (3) above. The usual Demographic Comparison of the President's popularity is included. GS:LH:pm THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON August 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN S SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies today disclosed several interesting matters: 1) The Gallup Release on Friday, August 18, will be on the "confidence the voters have in the two major parties to deal with the key bread and butter issues of peace and prosperity. Gallup has "found that the Republican Party has closed the gap on both issues and, as a matter of fact, now holds a rather wide lead over the Democrats on the Party better able to keep the country out of war." The Republicans have "drawn even with the Democrats on the issue of prosperity - an issue that the Democrats have sort of dominated over the years. Davies says "this just lends additional evidence to the fact that the Republicans are in a very good position at this point in time in the campaign.' Davies would not give me exact figures because "they can change." The last September, 1971 Gallup Release on the confidence of voters on Repub- licans and Democrats handling of peace and prosperity is attached at Tab A. 2) The Gallup Release for Sunday, August 20 will be the new trial heat figures from the poll conducted August 4-6. However, Davies gave me the usual line about "preliminary figures, unweighted data, etc;" but he did say "it looks as though the lead (G - Jul 14-17: 56 - 37 - 7) has held up, but to what extent, I don't know. It could be even greater - that's why I don't want to mention anything." He hopes to be able to give me the results on Friday, August 18 in spite of the Gallup Organization rule about not talking to either candidate's staff. 4 PARTY BEST FOR PEACE Question: "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the U.S. out of World War III -- the Republican party or the Democratic party?" AUGUST 27 30, 1971 MID-JULY, 1971 No No No No Republican Democratic Difference Opinion Republican Democratic Difference Opinion % % % % % % % % NATIONAL 24 29 34 13 28 28 32 12 SEX Male 27 27 36 10 Female 22 29 33 16 RACE White 26 26 35 13 Non-white 4 52 26 18 EDUCATION College 30 24 36 10 High School 22 31 33 14 Grade School 22 30 32 16 OCCUPATION Prof. & Bus. 28 23 36 13 White Collar 32 29 28 11 Farmers 30 40 24 6 Manual 18 34 35 13 AGE 18 20 years 16 39 32 13 21 29 years 26 30 34 10 30 49 years 22 31 33 14 50 & over 26 25 35 14 RELIGION Protestant 28 27 33 12 Catholic 19 32 33 16 Jewish X X X X POLITICS Republican 59 6 27 8 Democrat 9 51 29 11 Independent 20 17 46 17 REGION East 23 31 31 15 Midwest 28 28 33 11 South 23 30 32 15 West 21 22 44 13 INCOME $15,000 & over 27 28 31 14 $10,000 $14,999 27 26 37 10 7,000 $ 9,999 23 30 37 10 $ 5,000 $ 6,999 26 30 29 15 $ 3,000 $ 4,999 23 28 36 13 Under $3,000 17 33 32 18 COMMUNITY SIZE 1,000,000 & over 17 36 35 12 500,000 999,999 27 27 33 13 50,000 499,999 22 27 37 14 2,500- 49,999 26 24 35 15 Under 2,500, Rural 28 28 32 12 PARTY BEST FOR PROSPERITY Question: "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party - the Republican or the Democratic -- do you think will do the better job of keeping the country prosperous?" AUGUST 27 30, 1971 MID-JULY, 1971 No No No No Republican Democratic Difference Opinion Republican Democratic Difference Opinion % % % % % % % % NATIONAL 21 45 23 11 23 46 21 10 SEX Male 23 48 21 8 Female 18 44 24 14 RACE White 23 42 24 11 Non-white 4 72 12 12 EDUCATION College 28 38 24 10 High School 19 47 22 12 Grade School 17 50 22 11 OCCUPATION Prof. & Bus. 28 40 22 10 White Collar 29 44 19 8 Farmers 18 53 16 13 Manual 13 54 22 11 AGE 18 20 years 20 44 21 15 21 29 years 20 47 22 11 30 49 years 20 48 21 11 50 & over 21 44 24 11 RELIGION Protestant 23 42 24 11 Catholic 17 51 19 13 Jewish X X X X POLITICS Republican 60 9 21 10 Democrat 4 74 14 8 Independent 15 35 35 15 REGION East 20 47 22 11 Midwest 25 46 20 9 South 18 48 21 13 West 20 37 30 13 INCOME $15,000 & over 30 43 16 11 $10,000 $14,999 25 40 26 9 $ 7,000 $ 9,999 17 54 21 8 $ 5,000 $ 6,999 19 47 20 14 $ 3,000 $ 4,999 21 44 25 10 Under $3,000 10 47 27 16 COMMUNITY SIZE 1,000,000 & over 15 51 21 13 500,000 999,999 28 41 22 9 50,000 499,999 22 45 23 10 2,500 49,999 20 43 23 14 Under 2,500, Rural 21 45 23 11 Sat - 2 - 3) The detailed demographic comparison of Gallup Get st Trial Heats between the President and McGovern from both released and previously private materials is being prepared by Davies' office but is not yet available. Gally The most recent Gallup Opinion Index is attached at Tab B. Davies thought you might be interested in the comparison of the Democrats platform and the rank and file views. You have seen some of the Gallup referendum material on page 6 - 9 which shows only Democratic views. The selection of the Vice President candidate should be made by the voters (63%) instead of the current process (31%) according to a pre-Eagleton poll (Apr 28 - May 1) reported on page 10. Gallup asked "In your opinion, which is most respon- sible for inflation - government, business or labor?" On page 11 the demographics are reported which show that 39% blame the Government, 20% blame Business, and 29% blame Labor, while 14% had no opinion on the polling dates Apr 21 - 24, 1972. Bob Teeter's Wave II asked a similar question - "Do you think business, labor unions, the President, Congress or the cunsumer is most responsible for rising prices and inflation." The results were: Bus Uns P Cong Consum T - Jun 16-26 26 37 8 9 17 (National) The Nixon-McGovern demographic material on page 4 will be included in the Gallup materials mentioned in (3) above. The usual Demographic Comparison of the President's popularity is included. August 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies today disclosed several interestedg matters: 1) The Gallup Release on Friday, August 18, will be on the "confidence the voters have in the two major parties to deal with the key bread and butter issues of peace and prosperity." Gallup has "found that the Republican Party has closed the gap on both issues and, as a matter of fact, now holds a rather wide lead over the Democrats on the Party better able to keep the country out of war." The Republicans have "drawn even with the Democrats on the issue of prosperity - an issue that the Democrats have sort of dominated over the years." Davies says "this just lends additional evidence to the fact that the Republicans are in a very good position at this point in time in the campaign." Davies would not give me exact figures because "they can change"" The last September 1971 Gallup Release on the confidence of voters on Repub- licans and Democrats handling of peace and prosperity is attached at Tab A. 2) The Gallup Release for Sunday, August 20 will be the new trial heat figures from the poll conducted August 4-6. However, Davies gave me the usual line about "preliminary figures, unweighted data, etc," but he did say "it looks as though the lead (G - Jul 14-17: 56 - 37 - 7) has held up, but to what extent, I don't know. It could be even greater - that's why I don't want to mention anything." He hopes to be able to give me the results on Friday, August 18 in spite of the Gallup Organisation rule about not talking to either candidate's staff. - 2 - 3) The detailed demographic comparison of Gallup Trial Heats between the President and McGovern from both released and previously private materials is being prepared by Davies' office but is not yet available. 4) The most recent Gallup Opinion Index is attached at Tab B. Davies thought you might be interested in the comparison of the Democrate platform and the rank and file views. You have seen some of the Gallup feferendum material on page 6 - 9 which shows only Democratic views. The selection of the Vice President candidate should be made by the voters (63%) instead of the surrent process (31%) according to a pre-Eagleton poll (Apr 28 - May 1) reported on page 10. Gallup asked "In your opinion, which is most respon- sible for inflation - government, business or labor?" On page 11 the demographics are reported which show that 39% blame the Government, 20% blame Business, and 29% blame Labor, while 140 had no opinion on the polling dates Apr 21 - 24, 1972. Bob Teeter's Wave II asked a similar question - "Do you think business, labow unions, the President, Congress or the cunsumer is most responsible for rising prices and inflation." The results were: Bus Uns P Cong Consum T - Jun 16-26 26 37 los 9 17 (National) The Nixon-McGovern demographic material on page 4 will be included in the Gallup materials mentioned in (3) above. The usual Bemographic Comparison of the Pres&dent's popularity is included. GS:car PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- Monday, August 14, 1972 G - Hi, John, how are you? D - Hi, Gordon, how are you? Sorry ... G - Oh, no problem at all. Do you have any results from that August 4-6 one yet? D - Yes, we have some preliminary data that I can give you. G - Oh, great. D - Incidentally, thank you very much for that package. That was great. Great stuff. G - Hope it wasn't too bulky there. D - No, just terrific. Some of those things are magnificent. G - But that is everything, so just feel free to throw away what you don't want to use. D - Oh, I'll keep every bit of it. No, that's just the kind of stuff that -- of course we're heavy on campaign buttons here. But that material makes those posters and everything we're going to frame alot of those things. They're great. G - Good. I'll keep all the rest of the stuff for you. D - Oh, terrific. Now getting back to some of the things I have here. I can't give you any information yet on the trial heat because we're still waiting for a full sample and I'd rather not give you unweighted data. It's - the change is SO much that it looks as though the lead has held up, but to what extent I don't know. G - OK. D - It could be even greater - that's why I don't want to mention anything. - 2 - G - Yeah. OK. D- I'll probably know better tomorrow. G - All right. When do you expect to release it? D - Uh, hopefully, Sunday. G - OK. D - Now, the story for the Thursday, no, Friday it is. For Friday will be the confidence the voters have in the two major parties to deal with the key bread and butter issues of peace and prosperity which of course is your campaign slogan this year. We've found that the Republican Party has closed the gap on both issues and as a matter of fact now holds a rather wide lead over the Democrats on the you know the Party better able to keep the country out of war. G - Hey, that's interesting. D - And drawn even with the Democrats on the issue of prosperity you know an issue that the Democrats have sort of dominated over the years. And this just lends additional evidence to the fact that the Republicans are in a very good position at this point in time in the campaign. G - Gee, that's amazing. If we can only hold it. D - Uh, once again, I shy away from giving you figures on that because those will change too, but I think that's basically all I can give you at this point. G - OK. Well would it be convenient for me to call you tomorrow. I don't want to bug you on it. D - At about 11 a.m. might be good. - 3 - G - OK. I'll call you then. D - I'll be leaving around 12:30 for the day. G - OK. I'll call you then. D - OK, Gordon. G - How are things? D - Excellent. G - Are you going to be going down to the Convention? D - No, I don't think SO. I'd like to but too many other things in the way. G - Understand. D - There's a golf tournament on Sunday. G - OK - that's great news, John. D - OK, Gordon. G - Talk to you tomorrow around 11. D - Righto. G - Thank you. D - Bye. G - Bye. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Gue me Gue July 13, 1972 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY L SUBJECT: Gallup Index - - June '72 Your note on the Gallup Index -- June '72 you sent to Haldeman read as follows: "In addition to the Presidential popularity in demographic appearance in this Gallup Opinion Index is demographics on Trial Heats as well as image infor- mation on McGovern, Humphrey, and Wallace. ". Rather than just giving a brief summary, you should indicate: 1. The information; 2. What is in here that we've not seen before; 3. Any significant trends indicated. The brief note could be done by anyone. The information put together as outlined above would be staffing it. ag 4-6 no info yet on Tre Heat 1 unwergthte head Hopepully has held up, could be up Fri Release - anfie that voters have Peace + Pres Rep party closed gap + Drolds Even on property - ahead on Peace. A DMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Spock - California Ballot A check with the California Secretary of State indicates four parties have qualified for ballot position --- Democrat, Republican, Peace and Freedom, and the American Independent Party. Only McGovern at this time is "certified" as the nominee of his Party. The Peace and Freedom Party will hold its state convention on August 26 and is expected to "certify" Spock and Hobson as its candidates. Although Spock was nominated by the Peoples Party nationally, his e fforts assured ballot position for the Peace and Freedom Party in California. The Peace and Freedom Party is the California off- shoot of the National Peoples Party. The American Independent Party will hold its state convention on August 26 and is expected to "certify" Schmitz and Anderson. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL August 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Polls - Wave II Teeter Analyses Bob Tester has submitted the last requested memorandum on the Wave II results. The subject is Vietnam, Amnesty, and National Defense (attached at Tab A). In response to your questions on the August 11 Abortion memorandum, Teeter submitted the material attached at Tab B. You approved sending the state by state issue information to the Vice President on August 14. Teeter has also prepared the materials you requested showing the Vice President "his relative strength in various areas". This material is attached at Tab C. The question is whether this material is acceptable as presented to forward to the Vice President. Recommendation: X Yes, send Teeter material to Vice President. No, Teeter prepare less detailed material. Other. Bob Teeter has also prepared materials for Dave Parker showing the President's and Vice President's approval - 2 - ratings by region. This information is attached at Tab C. The question is whether these "specific figures" should be released to Chapin/Parker. Recommendation: Yes, forward to Parker. No, have Teeter revise material to delete "specific figures". Other. Teeter has submitted the memorandum attached at Tab D requesting authority to conduct Wave III, the post-Convention brief questionnaire, trial heat poll in Key States, on September 6-9, The results would be available September 16. Questionnaire approval and the selection of the exact list of states would be made on August 28. Recommendation: That Teeter's suggested schedule for Wave III be approved. Approve Disapprove Comments Finally, Tester wonders whether you want to discuss the Wave II information with him. He is available at your convenience though he had planned on going to California on Thursday, August 17 to brief Nofsiger on the Wave II results in California. The discussion would last no more than one hour. - 3 - Recommendation: Schedule Teeter to brief Haldeman on Friday, August 18. Re-schedule Teeter discussion. No need for Teeter discussion of Wave II at this time. Other. GS/jb I COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT MEMORANDUM August 15, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINISTRATIVE CONEIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY MARKING E.O. 12000. By Emprise 6-102 MARS, Date 1-14-80 MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Vietnam/Amnesty/National Defense This memorandum will outline the results of the second wave campaign polls as they pertain to Vietnam, amnesty, and national defense. As we have noted in other memoranda, Vietnam is by far the single most important national issue in every geographical region of the country and with every demographic group. It is also the issue which has the most effect in determining how someone will vote for President. Overall, the President receives an excellent rating on his ability to handle the Vietnam situation. Sixty-five percent give him posi- tive ratings compared to 30% who rate him negatively. McGovern does not do as well with 42% rating him positively and 26% negatively. On the question of troop withdrawal from Vietnam, more voters lean toward a gradual withdrawal from Vietnam than favor immediate with- drawal as shown below. Age is the only demographic factor which has much effect on how an individual voter would feel. Tot. R T-S D N Mc 1/ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gradual Immediate Withdrawal Withdrawal 1/ Tot. = Total Voters T-S = Ticket-Splitters R = Republicans D = Democrats N = Total Rating Nixon Mc = Total Rating McGovern -2- Tot. 65+ 18-24 2/ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gradual Immediate Withdrawal Withdrawal The Presidential candidates are seen as having opposite views on the question of withdrawal; however, while the voters are in between the two candidates, they see the President's position as closer to their own view than McGovern's. I think the data on amnesty is very significant. There is a high correlation between the amnesty question and the responses on Vietnam. Apparently, amnesty has become a "code word" for a set of opinions which correspond directly to beliefs about Vietnam with- drawal. It appears that it is becoming an integral part of the Vietnam issue rather than an independent issue. On amnesty, the President is perceived as having a position identical to that held by the public. McGovern's perceived position, on the other hand, is quite removed from the position of the voters. Age is the only variable having a large effect on the opinions regarding amnesty. Tot. D T-S N R Mc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Grant Amnesty Consider Amnesty Never Grant Immediately After the War Amnesty Tot. 18-24 65+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Grant Amnesty Consider Amnesty Never Grant Immediately After the War Amnesty 2/ Tot. = Total Voters 65+ = Voters 65 years & over 18-24 = Voters 18-24 years old -3- On the question of national defense the voters are fairly evenly split between those favoring a strong defense versus those favoring that we reorder our priorities and spend domestically even though it means a less strong national defense. Although they lean to the side of a strong defense, the voters place themselves about equi- distance between Nixon and McGovern. Again age is important in the voter's position. Tot. R T-S D N Mc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strong Spend at Home Defense Less Strong Defense Tot. 65+ 18-24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Strong Spend at Home Defense Less Strong Defense Thirty-seven percent of the voters think we should spend less on national defense while 39% think we should continue to spend about what we are now. However, of the 37% who feel we should spend less, 71% hold this opinion because they believe the Defense Department wastes tax dollars rather than because they believe we need less military strength. Conclusions 1. Vietnam is by far the single most important issue in determining Presidential vote. 2. The President's handling of Vietnam is the single most important factor contributing to the President's high approval ratings and increased committed support. A large majority of voters are in favor of total withdrawal from Vietnam (not necessarily immediately) and perceive of the President withdrawing from Vietnam as fast as possible. To insure continued acceptance of our withdrawal plans we should continue to emphasize that very few or no American combat troops remain and that withdrawal of our air and sea support is conditional only on the release of our prisoners. Although voters want a reduction -4- in our involvement, they favor retention of some forces in Vietnam until the prisoners are released. We should not allow this issue to become clouded or fuzzy. We should make absolutely sure that the voters understand that the difference between the President's position and McGovern's position is that the President is going to withdraw totally after the prisoners are released while McGovern would withdraw immediately and hope the prisoners would be released. 3. Attitudes toward the President and ultimately the Nixon vote are more highly correlated with whether or not voters think he has done a good job of handling the Vietnam problem than anything else, except past voting behavior. This is truely the gut issue in the campaign. 4. As the President is seen handling the Vietnam situation well and as we have a definite advantage over McGovern on this issue, we should continue to emphasize Vietnam. We should be careful not to overstate our accomplishments because a substantial proportion of voters do not believe we have been completely truthful and forth- right about Vietnam. Young voters are especially sensitive to this. 5. While the President's perceived position on amnesty is right in line with the voters, amnesty is probably going to become a more important issue during the campaign and the President will have to address himself to it more specifically than he has. His position should be just as it is now perceived to be, fairly hard but allowing for amnesty under some conditions after the war is over. These conditions might include amnesty for C.O.'s and draft dodgers but require public service. While we did not measure it directly, I suspect there is some difference of attitudes for the C.O.'s and draft dodgers versus deserters. This is an issue we should check carefully in Wave Three and continue to follow. The President should be very careful on handling the defense spending and reordering of priorities issues. There appears to be some ground for McGovern to gain on this issue. Many voters find the "reordering of priorities" and 'doing more at home" appeals very attractive, particularly when their concern over high taxes is rising. There are two points we should emphasize with regards to national defense. First, whenever the President discusses it he should explain and emphasize that a strong national defense is a means to peace not just that it is a means for us to be the strongest nation in the world or to prevent us from becoming a second-rate power. There is strong support for the idea that a strong national defense is in fact a means to peace and we should always tie defense spending to that idea. Secondly, some public hard-nosed action directed at duplication and waste in the Defense Department would be most useful along with more publicity of the Administration's actions to make the Defense Depart- ment more efficient. Regardless of whatever actions we may have taken, there is continued wide-spread suspicion of the military industrial complex. CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT MEMORANDUM August 15, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINIS MARKING CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY E.O. 12065 6-102 By Emprise Date 1-14-80 MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Abortion Memo This is in response to your further inquiry concerning our memoran- dum on abortion. As the following table shows, men have slightly more liberal attitudes about abortion than do women, and men's attitudes are closer to the McGovern position than women. Although this is true, it is our judgment that abortion is a more important issue to women than men. Views on Abortion Mc Tot. M W N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Legalize Do Not Abortion Legalize In answer to your further question the following tables show the increases in Catholic vote from the first wave. The change in the Catholic vote corresponds closely to the total change which has occurred in most states since the first wave except in Indiana and Ohio: 1/ Tot = Total Voters M = Male Voters W = Female Voters N = Total Rating Nixon Mc = Total Rating McGovern -2- PERCENTAGE COMMITTED NIXON VOTE Total Catholic 2/ 3 / 2/ 3 State Wave I Wave II Change Wave I Wave II Change California 42% 48% + 6% 36% 42% + 6% Indiana 47 54 + 7 31 51 +20 Maryland 47 52 + 5 49 56 + 7 Missouri 39 44 +5 37 43 + 6 New Jersey 49 49 + 0 52 50 - 2 New York 46 49 + 3 54 53 - 1 Ohio 49 56 +7 37 51 +14 Oregon 45 42 - 3 27 23 - 4 Pennsylvania 43 49 + 6 32 42 +10 Texas 44 54 +10 39 41 + 2 Wisconsin 41 44 + 3 29 33 +4 2/ Nixon/Muskie/Undecided Ballot 3/ Nixon/McGovern/Undecided Ballot CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 8/11/72 & TO: GORDON STRACHAN Live H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: Fatr Copies of Teeter's abortion but memorandum should be sent to Ehrlichman, Buchanan and Flanigan. L 7 8/14 Committee for the Re-election of the President MEMORANDUM August 11, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINIST CARD MARKING CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY E.O. 12005 Sention 6-102 By Emprise FEBS, Date 1-14-80 MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Abortion As requested, this memorandum will outline the results of the second wave of campaign polls as it relates to abortion. The President's perceived position on abortion is somewhat removed from the view held by the total electorate. On the other hand, McGovern's position is in the center of the public view. Tot T-S D Mc R N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Legalize Do not legalize abortion abortion As shown in the above chart, the President's current position indicates there is some possibility of losing some votes on this issue. This is especially true with women voters who position McGovern much closer to their own view than Nixon. The notion that Catholic voters are yerwhelmingly opposed to abortion is not borne out by this data. Forty-eight percent of the Catholics are opposed to abortion while 41% would leave the matter to be decided by a woman and her doctor. The Nixon position is somewhat closer to all Catholic voters than the McGovern position, while McGovern is more in line with women. Tot Mc W Cath. N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Legalize Do not legalize abortion abortion men are more closer" to Thats not a valid me conclusion G. than women are. Rig 4? -2- The argument has been made that those who are opposed to abortion, particularly Catholics, are much more intense in their feelings on the issue and that it is more of a vote determining issue with them than it is with the pro-abortion people. While we did not measure this directly, the data indicates that this conclusion is not accurate. The idea that the President's increased support among Catholics results directly from his abortion stand is also not supported by the data. Catholic support of the President appears to have been growing for some time and was also strong in January prior to his letter to Cardinal Cooke. how much has P. Conclusions The data leads us to the following conclusions: gamed upCaths Jan? since 1. The President's position is certainly not going to attract any new voters and may be in fact costing him some support he might otherwise have, particularly among women. 2. While more Catholics are opposed to liberalized abortion than support it, the margin is close. 3. My recommendation is that the President avoid this issue if possible unless it becomes absolutely necessary. If it does become necessary, I think he should take the position that it is a matter to be decided by each state and not reiterate his personal position The alternative to this would be for him to moderate his stand Never! which might help him with women and younger voters, but not soften it to a point where he jeopardizes his advantage with some Catholics. This is a matter of personal belief - at commitment. Committee for the Re-election of the President MEMORANDUM August 15, 1972 DRAFT MEMORANDUM FOR: ROY GOODEARLE FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Vice President's Appearances Attached is a memorandum written to Dwight Chapin which summarizes the issue data from our Wave II poll by local area. Also attached is a summary of the Vice President's approval rating by local area. Each area is classified A,B,C,D, and E, with A meaning the Vice President's approval rating is substantially over his national approval rating, B, that it is somewhat over his national approval rating, C meaning that it is very close, D that it is somewhat under and E that it is substantially under. We will be furnishing you additional data after the 3rd Wave of polling which will be done in early September. Alabama C Michigan D Mobile A Detroit E Montgomery B Lansing C Dothan C Flint C Columbus, Ga. A Grand Rapids C Huntsville C Traverse City D Birmingham C Marquette C California C Missouri C San Diego C St. Louis E Los Angeles C Paducah/ Santa Barbara/ Springfield C Marin C Columbia/Quincy C Salinas/Monterey E St. Joseph, Ka. C Fresno C San Francisco E Chico/Redding E New Jersey C Sacramento/ Stockton D Philadelphia C New York C Connecticut C New York C New York C Hartford/New Buffalo C Haven C Rochester A Providence B Elmira A Syracuse E Utica E Illinois C Albany/ Schenectady A Rockford/Davenport C Watertown/ St. Louis E Carthage C Paduch/Springfield C New York D Chicago D Ohio C Maryland B Toledo C Baltimore B Dayton C Salisbury A Cincinnati A Washington B Columbus A Cleveland C Youngstown A Oregon D Washington D Bosie C Bellingham D Medford C Spokane E Eugene E Yakima D Spokane E Portland C Portland C Seattle/Tacoma D Pennsylvania C Wisconsin D Erie B Minneapolis C Pittsburgh C Madison D Harrisburg B Chicago D Philadelphia E Green Bay C Scranton A Texas D Corpus Christi E Houston D Beaumont/ Pt. Arthur A Shrevport/ Texarkana C Waco/Temple C Austin D Dallas/Ft. Worth C Odessa/Midland E San Antonio E E1 Paso E Abilene/ Sweetwater E Lubbock C Amarillo E Committee for the Re-election of the Presidert MEMORANDUM July 25, 1972 CONFIDENTIAL DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING E.O. 12065, By Emprix Section '02 MEMORANDUM FOR: DWIGHT L. CHAPIN 1-14-80 THROUGH: GORDON C. STRACHAN FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Issue and Appearances Data From Second Wave Polling Attached are tables summarizing our relative strength, the importance of various issues and the President's rating on his handling of those issues in the states we surveyed in Wave II. Each state has been given a rating of A thru E with A meaning the President is in excellent shape in that state, B meaning we are in moderately good shape, C that the state is very close, D that we are in fairly poor shape and E that we are in quite bad shape in that state. In addition each media market has been given a rating using the same scale. The figures under the column designated Imp. (importance) are the percentage of voters in that state or media market which ranked that particular issue in the top three in terms of importance in deciding Presidential vote. The second figures under the column designated RN are the percentage of voters who give the President a positive rating on his handling of that issue (top figure) and the percentage of the voters who rated him negatively (botton figure) That is, in the Mobile/Meridian area of Alabama the President is in excellent shape (A rating), 54% of the voters rank Vietnam as one of the top three issues in terms of its importance in the Presidential election, 74% Date the President positively in terms of his handling of the Victnam issue and 23% rate him negatively. A statewide total column is included for each state and a summary sheet comparing each state to our national data is included. The circled issues on the following pages are those issues which are of significantly greater concern to the voters of a specific area than they are to that state overall. Using the ticket-splitter data we have available and the attached information my recommendation for the priority areas to visit and suggested issues for each of these visits within each of the states are listed below. You should remember, however, that Vietnam is, by far, the number one issue in all of these states and in all of the regions within the states. For that reason we have included it only when it is significantly more important to a local area than it is overall. Had we included it, Vietnam would have been the top priority issue in all areas of all states. Furthermore this data does not address itself to the fact that an appearance by the President is a national event and the list of issues used to formulate this data did not include anything which would give emphasis to a visit which stressed a general campaign theme or "mood of the country" speech. State Priorities Top Priority California New York Pennsylvania New Jersey Illinois Second Priority Ohio Michigan Connecticut Maryland Texas Third Priority Washington Oregon Missouri Wisconsin This data used in conjunction with the ticket-splitting maps we went over this morning should be of assistance to you in scheduling the President and the First Family. If you have any further questions, please let me know. Alabama: Drugs Crime Taxes Mobile: Crime Bussing California: Unemployment Taxes Inflation Los Angeles: Unemployment Inflation Taxes San Diego: Crime National Defense Sacramento/ Stockton: Unemployment Drugs San Francisco: Vietnam Environment Connecticut: Inflation Unemployment Taxes Hartford: Crime Inflation Fairfield Co.: Drugs Crime Illinois: Inflation Drugs Chicago: Taxes Inflation Rockford/ Davenport: Inflation Illinois continued: Outstate Areas: Taxes Inflation NOTE: While there is no particular concern of population we need some effort in the outstate areas and a tour of them by someone woule be useful. New Jersey: Taxes Unemployment Inflation Northern New Jersey: Taxes Inflation Ohio: Unemployment Inflation Drugs Cleveland: Unemployment Inflation Taxes Cincinnati: Inflation Drugs General Unrest Toledo: Orime Environment Oregon: Taxes Inflation Environment Portland: Taxes Inflation Environment Pennsylvania: Taxes Drugs Pittsburgh: Taxes Environment Unemployment Drugs Philadelphia: Unexployment Taxes Maryland: Crime Drugs Inflation Baltimore Co.: Drugs Crime Washington Suburbs (Mainly Montgomery Co.) : Inflation Crime Environment Michigan: Taxes Unemployment Drugs Bussing Detroit Suburbs: Bussing Taxes Crime General Unrest Flint: Taxes Crime Unemployment Race Grand Rapids: Unemployment Inflation Drugs Bussing Missouri: Unemployment Taxes Inflation St. Louis: Unemployment Crime Inflation Kansas City: Inflation Taxes Texas: Drugs Inflation Taxes Houston: Drugs Inflation : Dallas: Drugs Crime Taxes Austin: Environment Bussing Crime Wisconsin: Taxes Inflation Unemployment Milwaukee & S.E.: Taxes Inflation Unemployment NATIONAL SILDY PATING: A A A 8 A A B C E .8 A c 3 & D National* Alabama Calif Conn. Illicais Mirgland Michigan Missourt N J. Chfe Order 12. Texas Visconsin 1:** 152. RN at 24 KN 152. Imp. 15 1=p. 12 Its. M 21 lep. 12 1::. : leg. @ €5 76 60 Vietnam 57 64 60 63 67 50 51 53 56 82 56 67 57 54 35 32 54 42 58 56 49 63 59 51 07 63 57 " 22 33 35 " 41 32 33 39 32 39 47 56 45 33 41 11 47 48 32 25 43 45 37 Infletion 24 28 47 40 30 31 32 31 29 47 :3 53 32 49 46 41 53 56 52 51 55 53 59 52 56 52 46 51 53 65 53 20 25 51 27 56 33 57 27 54 24 58 " 52 53 39 29 29 27 34 55 34 C1 16 63 Drugs 36 28 43 42 42 40 43 33 44 44 41 43 37 34 56 62 Crise 53 48 25 52 31 37 50 25 45 24 30 51 43 50 24 49 24 50 25 53 16 50 20 36 35 43 47 45 48 52 47 20 27 52 48 46 49 45 42 50 63 43 42 23 49 54 31 45 21 34 49 19 33 39 47 45 23 4) 23 53 30 47 Enemployment 33 30 43 52 53 49 45 52 49 32 35 31 57 51 50 52 44 52 48 54 41 44 Taxes 34 42 48 28 34 42 26 25 32 36 50 39 39 44 " 37 46 42 44 29 51 49 57 33 26 36 48 53 53 45 59 49 57 34 42 51 10 60 59 57 21 54 62 17 21 53 16 60 51 59 61 56 13 59 11 69 Race 23 13 31 33 33 44 16 16 37 14 10 36 44 36 16 44 32 33 42 39 39 E1 81 78 17 79 16 78 81 9 20 10 20 74 82 72 $3 50 85 Foreign Policy 11 18 11 15 17 17 13 14 13 11 13 16 11 13 20 21 17 20 16 23 15 15 23 EO 70 51 $5 16 56 60 13 63 6: 50 59 64 Environment 60 59 10 21 18 17 40 37 13 15 42 33 43 13 17 15 12 16 C3 26 46 36 33 38 31 38 39 35 Ceneral Chrest 57 :3 48 53 11 52 60 , 15 12 9 19 57 43 55 43 57 CO 41 37 13 41 11 13 14 11 13 11 33 20 49 47 39 49 42 40 45 41 39 52 is 53 47 52 55 50 Veltare 57 42 34 45 55 35 13 13 13 9 12 14 42 15 47 15 13 13 11 12 17 50 39 32 44 46 41 41 52 44 50 41 47 23 " Health Care 80 8 10 63 64 63 68 , 9 9 8 69 70 60 67 02 70 74 28 29. 9 28 9 8 10 9 72 12 7 21 16 32 30 27 33 30 32 26 27 24 73 75 Nat'l. Defense 82 77 80 80 to 70 80 73 16 22 74 16 13 13 8 75 17 13 17 14 15 13 14 13 81 20 16 85 13 23 19 21 16 23 17 21 17 19 14 45 50 56 46 31 48 47 CO Bussing 17 43 4 52 3 4 49 7 19 40 6 4 52 4 2 42 48 51 4 54 10 27 4 40 53 38 45 41 44 42 42 50 35 & June 16-26, 1972; 1,016 Interviews " Secause the Sofferal study vos conducted ty phone the scales are slightly different the the states. No questions racking the issues by importance vere asked. June 13-26, 1972 OVERALL RATING: A 804 Interviews ALABAMA A A Mobile/ A A A Huntsville/ A A Meridian Montgomery Dothan Columbus, C.a. Chattanoopa Birmingham Tota: Jep. PN Imp. P.N Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN lmp. 2 Itp. 74 75 53 77 75 55 44 50 81 49 50 -6 Vietnam 54 48 23 22 38 21 22 19 22 50 62 47 58 55 22 27 26 58 24 24 36 Inflation 27 14 48 32 43 38 42 41 +1 59 78 70 71 62 70 -8 35 41 46 44 41 39 Drugs 34 36 18 23 27 35 26 18 51 67 53 56 56 69 52 43 34 32 36 24 29 31 Crime 47 30 40 42 41 28 35 59 63 51 69 57 6E 53 Unemployment 20 14 13 23 24 18 19 38 33 43 29 39 28 33 41 63 49 50 60 55 V: Taxes 16 33 30 20 18 28 26 55 33 45 48 38 44 14 45 60 49 58 62 " 50 Race 30 26 33 23 13 22 23 52 32 40 40 34 31. 36 74 84 68 77 16 84 85 Foreign Policy 5 5 7 14 11 11 23 8 13 17 9 13 13 66 72 70 63 Environment 10 16 11 71 12 70 4 10 :0 4 25 26 30 22 17 33 26 55 68 60 65 66 9 68 55 General Unrest 7 12 8 8 12 9 40 23 32 31 29 29 30 58 73 47 60 64 Welfare 11 16 8 10 15 12 68 13 53 38 23 45 35 33 29 30 80 80 62 73 84 82 7 11 4 8 8 11 8 Health Care 15 14 30 23 14 15 X 77 80 77 83 80 87 Nat'l. . Defense 11 10 17 10 20 16 16 19 13 11 10 15 9 27 59 36 Bussing 28 12 31 14 -10 17 41 15 48 17 71 37 57 67 55 47 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Drugs Mobile/Meridian: Crime Crime Race Taxes Bussing Inflation Montgemery: Taxes Dothan: Victnam Race Columbus, Ca.: Drugs Crime Environment Huntsville/ Chattanooga: Drugs Crime Foreign Policy OVERALL RATISS: B CALIFORNIA June 12-:7, 1972 1,000 Interviews A D B A Sonta Earb/ A A D E SACRACENTO/ B San Diego Los Invoice Santa Kiria Salinas/Mentry Fresno San Francisco Chico/Redding Stockton Total It.p. RS Inp. 73 Imp. 2 Imp. KN Imp. X 2 TEP. is 1=2. RN -=p. IN Vietnam 53 64 58 52 70 67 70 49 50 61 60 47 35 42 57 54 01 54 55 54 30 33 30 49 44 38 39 55 47 Inflation 18 42 30 52 58 45 36 32 45 45 51 30 27 24 25 27 18 28 42 42 46 62 62 53 53 63 54 Drugs 23 20 70 55 33 46 38 34 42 24 30 26 59 53 24 15 27 20 30 39 55 48 53 36 43 58 57 Cripe 33 18 45 42 45 47 44 52 53 38 40 21 18 24 17 15 23 20 52 45 45 47 47 45 43 56 47 Ineeployment 18 29 45 45 35 39 32 42 45 42 50 36 30 18 29 54 47 30 55 52 45 58 59 56 52 47 48 Taxes 27 28 53 42 48 39 35 39 " 52 51 33 36 18 30 12 32 29 39 52 48 57 56 58 53 / 61 62 Race 10 11 64 61 70 51 62 55 59 39 36 12 12 15 14 30 16 13 36 36 24 44 32 +42 38 81 79 Foreign Policy 14 20 91 85 88 71 68 79 78 19 20 27 15 12 15 15 17 18 9 15 9 25 24 17 20 14 53 23 48 Invironment 15 €1 42 21 67 15 70 25 50 12 56 14 55 21 51 49 39 27 30 46 38 42 46 19 34 15 52 Ceceral Unrest 12 52 12 45 9 67 17 41 9 35 14 50 15 48 63 44 45 48 30 56 56 47 49 Welfare 16 59 14 53 15. €7 18 58 15 61 8 51 12 32 8 48 13 53 39 43 33 36 39 46 59 se 44 Health Care 13 " 10 66 0 70 3 73 21 64 11 58 12 50 13 61 10 63 33 29 27 27 33 37 38 38 32 Nat'l Defense 32 70 20 76 30 76 18 88 27 19 21 70 15 56 14 80 22 74 28 22 24 9 18 27 38 18 23 47- Bussing 5 3 54 0 52 0 70 3 48 4 46 3 38 8 59 4 52 48 41 42 21 42 . 47 47 38 42 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL FITHASIS ISSUES Victnam Uncaployment San Diego: Crime Taxes National Defense Inflation National Defense Santa Barbara/ Santa Marin: Unemployment National Defense Foreign Folicy Salinas/ Monterey: Taxes Drugs Welfare San Francisco: Vietnam Chico/Redding: Unemployment Rase Crime Sacramento/ Stockton: Uner.ployment Drugs OVERALL RATING: A CONNECTICUT June 11-20, 1972 615 Interviews A A A A New York Hartford Providence Total Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp RN Imp. RN 73 60 75 64 Vietnam 54 60 48 57 27 40 21 35 45 39 52 41 Inflation 25 36 32 33 52 60 45 56 55 49 52 51 Drugs 30 24 17 25 38 46 34 42 55 44 54 48 Crime 30 31 20 24 41 51 38 47 45 40 50 42 Unemployment 26 34 32 33 49 57 38 53 48 42 52 44 Taxes 27 25 27 25 46 55 38 51 57 57 59 57 Race 12 18 11 16 36 39 34 33 85 77 75 79 Foreign Policy 20 16 20 17 8 18 11 15 61 58 52 58 Environment 14 20 20 18 32 37 34 36 59 50 57 53 General Unrest 13 9 18 12 33 46 29 41 48 46 52 47 Welfare 14 11 11 13 46 48 38 46 66 65 54 64 Health Care 8 6 6 7 24 30 32 28 80 72 79 75 Nat 1. Defense 17 14 23 16 13 22 11 19 50 51 45 50 Bussing 5 3 5 3 39 38 39 38 ISSUES: ADL SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Inflation New York: Drugs Unemployment Drugs Hartford: Crime Taxes Providence: National Defense , General Unrest June 13-23, 1972 OVERALL RATING: A ILLINOIS 800 Interviews A A Rockford/ D Paducah/ A A Davenport St. Louis Springfield Chicago Total Imp. RN lmp RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. 2 Vietnam 65 72 63 56 51 74 59 59 60 63 26 40 24 39 35 Inflation 40 63 23 31 28 57 31 44 31 47 36 67 41 55 52 Drugs 20 69 30 54 38 64 26 52 27 56 26 41 33 47 42 Crime 23 63 29 47 20 59 24 50 25 52 35 51 35 49 45 Unemployment 25 72 35 39 24 60 29 44 28 49- 28 60 38 54 49 Taxes 36 64 24 44 41 61 32 42 34 48 36 53 37 57 51 Race 13 74 29 49 19 62 21 50 21 54 26 50 35 48 44 Foreign Policy 24 90 10 67 13 84 16 75 16 78 10 31 11 24 21 Environment 14 79 14 54 11 70 16 49 16 56 21 44 26 49 42 General Unrest 13 67 15 43 15 64 10 48 11 52 33 53 33 51 47 Welfare 4 78 13 46 12 66 8 53 9 52 21 50 28 46 41 Health Care 6 83 3 54 6 81 10 64 9 68 15 40 15 35 30 Nat'l Defense 15 90 7 73 17 87 11 73 13 77 8 26 10 25 21 Bussing 3 54 5 37 4 53 3 49 4 49 40 57 43 49 48 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Taxes Rockford/Davenport: Vietnam Inflation Inflation Unemployment Foreign Policy Drugs St. Louis: Unemployment Race Paducah/Springfield: Taxes Drugs 4. OVERALL RATING: B MARYLAND June 13-23, 1972 600 Interviews B A A B Baltimore Salisbury Washington Total Imp. RN Imp RN Imp. RN Imp. RN 47 66 58 58 55 70 51 67 Vietnam 33 42 29 32 25 49 16 67 45 44 Inflation 32 48 50 33 54 51 40 52 Drugs 50 74 22 62 33 57 45 26 34 40 40 44 Crime 16 53 36 61 37 50 55 47 37 48 22 53 Unemployment 12 75 19 52 21 54 46 20 46 45 28 45 Taxes 20 54 28 53 28 48 59 54 46 44 49 Race 21 60 20 75 14 63 17 62 30 25 34 36 Foreign Policy 11 77 12 83 11 86 10 81 19 17 12 17 Environment 14 60 12 92 24 55 17 60 36 8 43 37 General Unrest 9 59 8 67 10 62 9 60 30 29 35 37 Welfare 15 54 20 58 8 57 12 55 44 38 40 42 68 Health Care 10 70 12 75 7 65 9 27 25 31 29 76 83 85 80 National Defense 11 16 15 13 20 13 12 17 58 62 53 56 Bussing 7 16 7 7 39 38 43 40 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Victnam Crime Baltimore: Drugs Drugs Inflation Salisbury: Vietnam Taxes Drugs Welfare Bussing Washington: Inflation Environment OVERALL RATING: C MICHIGAN June 13-30, 1972 800 Interviews B B C A D :A Flint-Sag. Grand Rapids Traverse Marquette C Detreit Lansing Bay City Kala./Chicago City Green Bay Total Imp. RN Imp. P.N Imp. RN Imp. RX Imp. RN Imp. EN Irp. 22 Vietnam 52 53 50 59 60 58 48 65 68 51 74 67 53 5: 46 38 37 34 43 33 4: Inflation 24 41 43 50 17 55 26 50 27 27 33 41 25 4: 58 50 41 48 68 29 5: Drugs 30 49 19 74 19 53 26 61 25 59 10 74 27 5. 49 26 41 33 35 26 43 Crime 27 44 29 48 29 42 23 48 6 43 20 52 25 4: 54 52 54 48 51 48 5: Unemployment 33 41 22 58 26 53 28 53 41 27 33 63 31 45 57 42 41 45 65 33 5: Taxes 34 39 45 53 43 43 23 47 44 41 24 52 31 4: 60 47 54 52 54 48 5 Race 21 50 31 58 23 61 19 55 7 46 10 67 21 5: 47 42 34 40 49 30 4: Foreign Policy 9 80 6 91 7 82 8 77 11 70 17 89 9 8: 19 9 11 17 24 11 r Environment 11 63 6 75 17 56 20 68 7 59. 21 44 13 63 34 25 39 28 35 44 33 Ceneral Unrest 23 56 6 73 13 55 18 59 7 41 3 70 19 5⁻ 43 27 42 37 51 26 4, Welfare 10 47 23 76 6 51 23 53 22 38 10 63 14 5: 50 24 44 42 54 37 4" Health Care 9 65 0 72 9 77 7 77 5 70 0 85 8 65 18 16 16 19 22 15 2: Nat'l Defense 7 80 0 84 7 77 13 85 4 68 7 89 B 8: 18 16 18 11 24 11 1: Bussing 23 43 6 66 13 45 18 53 7 43 3 49 19 4: 55 31 47 42 51 56 5: ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPILASIS ISSUES Victnam Taxes Lansing: Taxes Uneaployment Inflation Drugs Race Inflation Welfare Crite Flint-Saginaw-Bay City: Vietnam Taxes Grand Rapids-Falamazoo/ Chicago: Welfare Environment National Defense Traverse City: Victnam Taxes Unerployment Welfare Marquette-Green Bay: Vietnam Inflation Environment Foreign Policy OVERALL RATING: E MISSOURI June 13-24, 1972 800 Interviews C A D E Paducah/- Columbia/ St. Joseph/ E St. Louis Springfield Quincy Kansas City Total Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Inp. RN Victnam 56 64 55 56 70 64 51 62 50 44 54 32 28 34 37 40 Inflation 47 29 57 27 29 44 33 45 59 30 49 42 54 53 58 Drugs 22 57 26 54 32 59 23 58 24 39 35 40 38 38 Crime 47 52 35 25 52 22 56 29 51 30 52 43 48 43 47 39 Unemployment 41 55 30 26 59 55 31 49 34 60 43 39 44 49 50 Taxes 22 46 51 62 32 55 33 53 49 32 46 34 44 45 Race 50 64 20 68 12 13 68 16 60 16 49 30 30 30 37 79 Foreign Policy 13 74 10 87 17 84 12 13 80 20 21 12 11 17 Environment 58 69 12 68 7 67 15 15 64 40 13 27 31 30 33 General Unrest 52 12 61 16 68 14 59 13 58 46 13 35 32 38 39 Welfare 54 14 56 17 68 16 57 12 57 46 15 40 32 42 41 64 Health Care 8 70 7 77 16 76 12 70 9 33 24 21 22 27 Nat'l. Defense 85 12 72 10 86 17 78 16 80 13 13 22 13 18 16 47 Bussing 7 50 9 58 2 4 55 6 51 50 43 37 41 45 Faducah/Springfield also includes Spring./Paducah-Cape Girardeau- Harrisburg/Joplin-Pittsburg/Memphis ISSUES: %, ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Unemployment St. Louis: Unemployment Taxes Crime Inflation Crime Paducah/Springfield/ Harrisburg/Joplin/Momphis: Taxes Columbia/Quincy: "Drugs Health Care OVERALL RATING: B NEW JERSEY June 11-20, 1972 823 Interviews C B B Philadelphia New York City Total Imp. RN Imp. RN Inp. RN Vietnam 56 60 56 58 56 58 40 41 41 Inflation 42 27 35 33 37 31 50 62 59 Drugs 47 24 47 31 47 42 29 44 44 Crime 46 18 42 21 20 43 46 54 52 Unemployment 43 33 37 32 52 32 39 58 57 Taxes 36 33 36 35 33 36 57 59 59 Race 51 15 51 16 16 51 43 45 44 Foreign Policy 72 12 75 12 74 23 13 19 20 Environment 54 13 49 14 38 15 50 45 43 General Unrest 40 13 44 10 43 50 11 49 49 Welfare 48 15 40 14 42 46 15 54 52 Health Care 57 12 62 7 60 35 9 32 33 Nat 1. Defense 67 16 71 13 70 14 25 22 23 45 Bussing 3 49 4 4 48 43 40 41 ISSUES: Vietnam Taxes Unemployment Inflation Drugs OVERALL RATING: A OHIO June 13-27, 1972 800 Interviews A B A A A A Columbus Cleveland Youngstown/ A Toledo/Line Davton Cincinnati Parkersburg Akron Canton Pittsburgh Total Imp. RN RN Imp. IN Imp. RN Imp RN Imp. RN IN 75 60 58 59 57 72 53 63 67 70 51 56 67 Vietnam 49 24 39 31 27 36 28 32 59 :2 44 33 50 29 57 33 38 33 45 Inflation 25 32 47 40 56 30 42 60 53 52 31 58 32 53 29 50 30 58 24 50 51 48 29 52 Drugs 38 48 -8 39 45 4: 44 - 51 21 48 Crime 26 55 29 53 27 46 25 50 32 27 50 45 50 :5 44 51 47 48 21 54 43 44 37 51 31 61 37 37 31 55 Unemployment 35 47 43 56 -6 38 61 42 51 25 61 Taxes 18 55 21 52 31 60 29 41 24 41 26 50 39 44 :8 37 57 55 49 Race 17 65 16 61 13 65 14 65 14 54 17 48 14 59 35 39 34 33 44 48 39 15 80 16 83 15 90 13 81 Foreign Policy 15 80 13 70 14 82 14 13 10 .17 16 27 16 Environment 24 70 11 68 10 66 11 59 14 51 8 56 13 59 28 33 32 37 44 38 38 General Unrest 13 69 11 50 19 53 13 57 14 49 7 55 13 55 31 49 35 36 47 44 42 Welfare 15 51 13 55 9 57 18 55 13 52 12 53 13 54 48 44 43 44 44 44 44 10 69 4 69 6 77 4 64 10 67 8 55 8 67 Health Care 28 28 21 31 32 42 30 National Defense 19 85 9 79 13 83 15 77 14 80 12 83 13 80 13 20 17 19 17 14 17 6 55 4 48 4 62 53 Bussing 1 50 3 50 5 4 52 43 51 37 44 45 44 44 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Victnam Unemployment T:1cdo/Lina: Crime Inflation Environment Drugs National Defense Crime Dayten: Victnom Unemployment Inflation Cincinnati: Inflation General Unrest Columbus/Parkersburg: Taxes Welfare Youngstown/Pittsburgh: Vietnam Drugs OVERALL RATING: C OREGON June 12-17, 1972 600 Interviews E D C Eugene Portland Total Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp RN Vietnam 60 52 50 56 49 57 48 39 39 Inflation 30 38 30 41 31 40 63 53 56 Drugs 20 50 28 52 27 53 46 40 41 Crime 18 50 25 48 24 49 45 46 46 Unemployment 17 49 24 44 23 45 49 50 50 Taxes 50 39 32 39 39 39 58 56 57 Race 7 55 10 61 10 61 43 31 33 Foreign Policy 12 69 13 72 13 72 28 21 23 Environment 24 57 16 62 17 64 41 31 31 General Unrest 12 50 15 46 14 48 48 47 46 Welfare 16 43 13 45 15 45 57 48 50 Health Care 8 66 10 58 10 62 30 35 32 Nat 1 Defense 12 74 15 71 14 73 23 21 21 Bussing 2 49 2 45 2 47 40 43 42 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Taxes Eugene: Victnam Inflation Taxes Drugs Environment Crime OVERALL RATING: B PENNSYLVANIA June 13-27, 1972 600 Interviews A A A B Harrisburg/ Wilkes-Barre- Johnstown/ Pittsburgh/ York/Lancaster/ D Scranton/ B Altoona/Erie Youngstown Lebanon/Harerstown Philadelphia Binghamton Total lmp. RN Imp. KN Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN 79 65 69 48 70 59 Vietnam 49 60 65 62 46 60 21 34 27 51 28 39 60 39 61 44 60 47 Inflation 29 29 19 29 25 29 38 60 37 55 40 52 Drugs 73 49 65 51 68 55 32 32 44 30 46 34 25 47 32 48 32 43 29 54 46 61 46 62 50 Crime 17 27 26 23 24 44 53 36 52 38 49 62 41 63 42 64 47 Unepployment 19 33 13 36 39 31 37 58 36 56 36 52 54 41 60 39 57 44 Taxes 32 41 36 31 41 36 43 58 38 59 43 54 75 56 66 46 85 56 Race 14 14 10 18 10 16 21 43 31 53 15 42 94 85 89 79 83 83 Foreign Policy 15 11 14 8 15 11 6 14 9 20 17 15 10 76 51 63 59 89 60 Environment 21 17 12 12 15 22 47 34 39 11 38 67 49 60 50 62 53 General Unrest 20 10 11 10 8 11 30 48 37 49 34 45 Welfare 59 50 61 54 77 55 15 7 19 11 4 11 41 48 38 45 23 44 83 67 78 70 87 72 Health Care 12 7 7 10 12 9 14 30 18 29 11 26 90 81 85 77 26 15 14 89 81 Nat '1. Defense 9 9 13 6 18 11 21 11 17 71 44 58 54 77 54 Bussing 3 4 2 4 2 4 22 51 38 44 21 42 ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Victnam Taxes Johnstown/Altoona/Erie: Crime Drugs National Defense Unemployment General Unrest Inflation Pittsburgh/Youngstown: Taxes Environment Harrisburg/York/Lancaster/ Lebanon/llagerstown: Vietnam Drugs Welfare Philadelphia: Unemployment Wilkes-DarrerScranton/ Einghamton: Drugs Unemployment Taxes OVERALL LATING: A TEXAS Just 12-17, 1972 1,00 Interview A A A a $ 2 D Br. noot/ A A Cilles/ Decess/ A A Abilene/ A A & Carge UNITED Fouston THE 171 Austin Exce/Temple Mishard Son Antuals SUPPLY total As.cilla Total 1.2. If 1:2. 13 In 13 1-7- B 102. : 12 1.2. ES took K THE IT IN Tep. 12 1-2- 14 1071 12 162- 22 33 " 49 33 :) 82 11 64 67 47 61 75 41 Vietass 37 72 45 27 42 33 C.T 64 14 78 :3 50 12 51 67 " 40 15 31 33 39 21 37 26 25 36 22 23 32 33 "I Inflation 26 30 " 55 28 " 67 42 36 24 47 36 49 14 27 36 61 61 25 25 $1 22 25 33 28 33 13 45 42 33 33 38 43 53 51 52 35 38 47 45 38 " Drugs 34 60 30 35 22 72 37 61 30 30 6: 49 35 22 54 10 62 17 67 33 12 69 :7 55 34 61 #2 " 45 28 39 44 34 42 43 28 31 29 53 37 21 11 23 47 Crise 24 33 19 89 28 61 25 39 29 55 24 50 22 38 20 48 3 61 30 32 20 47 25 33 42 30 45 28 39 54 A1 44 42 61 36 44 . 33 45 :3 11 24 51 Unemployment 21 52 26 53 # 64 25 47 24 39 14 " 32 42 24 32 12 61 17 57 13 69 23 33 15 49 46 36 36 33 33 30 34 34 36 40 31 41 35 34 Taxes 22 52 27 67 20 $1 11 " 30 33 26 " 36 47 21 30 33 62 50 59 27 31 34 53 27 " " 46 33 36 23 44 34 33 10 28 16 47 42 42 Race 3 13 16 51 18 70 20 69 25 58 23 50 16 67 , 36 25 51 10 39 23 $1 21 63 20 53 18 57 15 4) 30 31 42 47 31 41 49 31 33 11 : 19 16 " 22 26 12 85 22 86 :- 92 20 " 16 84 24 61 17 #5 10 $3 12 67 15 #3 25 #6 18 $0 Foreign Folicy H 23 35 11 $ 28 13 19 13 7 31 14 8 31 1: 15 48 67 25 64 16 Invironment 12 3 69 # 65 , 3 77 15 34 45 $ 67 ' 14 15 4 49 17 37 " 30 21 31 36 39 37 28 32 43 31 24 25 33 50 $9 61 74 3 15 13 $2 12 53 69 & 47 53 53 General Carest 17 12 13 23 12 23 11 15 4 63 " 57 33 46 39 31 53 47 39 44 40 36 " 24 25 41, Walfare €6 39 56 52 55 30 6 11 11 46 , 61 19 53 47 72 , 16 11 , 14 , , 12 4 32 53 13 50 39 25 44 50 32 56 44 33 33 44 23 42 70 " 25 75 65 72 67 78 53 72 Health Life 17 16 13 59 92 72 , 6 , 3 10 6 11 13 , 4 26 10 34 35 27 ' 22 31 21 22 32 17 31 21 14 27 74 64 33 78 $1 75 " 29 72 73 66 13 Sat'l. Difense 21 32 16 " 31 41 28 22 19 25 21 , 25 19 17 20 43 " 12 17 17 19 15 25 14 10 28 19 $ 18 " 41 43 58 42 $1 47 47 53 , 3 58 12 47 Bussing 10 2 " 6 15 , 15 3 4 3 10 16 55 55 42 " 39 " 50 46 38 42 46 42 50 ISSUED ADL 52:CIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vistors Drugs Corgon Christi: Inflation Sen Antosio: Victors Influina Taxes Inflation Teach Comployment Unamployment Realth Cace Bace 1 desbur: Visinam * 11 Paso: Taxes Mational Defease Invironment Bussing General incest Shreseport/Texarkana: Vicense Abilene/Suvetwater: Vietnar Sational Defense Infletion Taxes Austin: Visinas Race Invir.nment National Defense Race Foreign Policy Lubbock: Drvgs Welfare Crime a Bussing Rece . Eaco/Templar Rece Amerillo: Drups . Taxes Worth: Passing Bealth Care Drugs These it Defense Vetety Policy Contral Uniest . June 13-20, 1972 OVERALL RATING: D WISCONSIN 600 Interviews B E E Green Bay/ A Madison/ Chicago/ Wausau D Minneapolis Rockford Milwaukee Rhinelander Total Imp. PN Imp RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Imp. RN Vietnam 55 59 61 61 63 53 58 69 63 59 33 37 45 31 39 Inflation 31 52 37 47 31 45 31 55 32 49 46 53 55 45 51 Drugs 19 65 21 59 12 59 18 71 16 63 27 36 38 28 34 Crime 23 59 13 64 15 50 18 59 16 56 40 34 47 40 42 Unemployment 19 56 29 47 36 38 25 58 30 47 42 52 60 41 51 Taxes 56 37 36 43 45 39 43 50 46 42 60 55 61 48 57 Race 8 67 10 76 14 64 8 76 11 69 28 24 35 23 30 Foreign Policy 13 82 11 87 15 84 18 90 16 86 15 12 14 10 13 Environment 11 67 19 71 18 57 14 73 16 65 31 28 41 27 34 General Unrest 10 61 15 58 9 58 12 63 11 60 38 40 41 35 39 Welfare 18 49 16 52 18 47 15 56 17 50 49 45 53 43 49 Health Care 9 75 2 76 6 69 8 82 7 74 21 24 28 17 24 Nat'1 Defense 17 86 20 86 12 82 19 88 16 85 12 13 17 11 14 Bussing 6 62 4 67 3 52 2 68 4 60 29 29 42 29 35 Minneapolis also includes Minneapolis/St. Paul- La Crosse/Eau Claire-Dubuque ISSUES: ADI SPECIAL EMPHASIS ISSUES Vietnam Taxes Minneapolis: Taxes Inflation Crime Unemployment Welfare Madison/Rockford: Inflation Drugs Chicago/Milwaukee: Unemployment Committee for the Re-election of the President MEMORANDUM August 15, 1972 DRAFT MEMORANDUM FOR: DAVID PARKER FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: The President's Strength The areas of the President's greatest strength can be found in my June 25th Memorandum to Dwight Chapin. They are those areas which are designated A. We have only limited data on the Vice President and it is attached. ALABAMA Approve Disapprove Don't Know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 66 47 21 17 12 36 - ADI Mobile 66 63 23 16 10 21 Montgomery 69 51 13 13 17 36 Dothan 53 47 34 19 13 34 Columbus, Ga. 71 54 23 15 6 31 Huntsville 66 38 21 22 14 40 Birmingham 66 43 21 15 13 41 CALIFORNIA Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 51 38 36 32 13 29 - ADI San Diego 50 45 4 34 9 20 Los Angeles 55 42 33 31 12 27 Santa Barbara/Marin 61 42 39 30 - 27 Salinas/Monterey 59 27 29 24 18 48 Fresno 67 39 27 27 6 33 San Francisco 42 32 43 39 15 29 Chico-Redding 24 29 53 29 24 41 Sacramento/Stockton 52 35 32 29 17 36 CONNECTICUT Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 60 42 27 33 13 25 ADI New York 66 48 24 31 10 21 Hartford/New Haven 58 38 30 36 12 26 Providence 64 52 16 21 20 27 ILLINOIS Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 57 38 33 37 10 25 ADI Rockford/Davenport 71 44 21 21 8 35 St. Louis 44 31 39 49 17 20 Paducah/Springfield 68 47 24 24 8 29 Chicago 54 36 37 42 10 22 MARYLAND Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 59 52 33 27 8 20 - ADI Baltimore 56 52 35 27 8 21 Salisbury 58 73 35 8 8 19 Washington, D.C. 62 50 30 30 8 20 MICHIGAN Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 53 33 40 33 7 33 ADI Detroit 51 28 43 38 6 34 Lansing 58 48 35 23 6 29 Flint 57 40 34 22 9 37 Grand Rapids 56 41 39 27 4 31 Traverse City 49 37 37 20 12 44 Marquette 60 47 23 33 16 20 MISSOURI Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 54 38 38 32 8 30 ADI St. Louis 45 30 50 39 5 31 Paducah/Springfield 58 43 29 29 13 28 Columbia/Quincy 67 45 24 .26 9 29 St. Joseph/Kansas 58 42 36 28 6 30 NEW JERSEY Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 50 43 35 31 15 26 ADI Philadelphia 53 39 33 27 14 34 New York 33 45 36 32 15 23 NEW YORK Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 53 39 35 34 13 27 - ADI Buffalo 54 39 37 31 8 30 Rochester 70 55 18 25 12 20 Elmira 70 70 28 15 3 15 Syracuse 46 32 46 25 7 43 Utica 63 20 20 20 18 60 Albany/Schenectady 63 57 22 27 15 16 Watertown/Carthage 66 44 7 17 27 39 New York 49 35 39 39 12 26 OHIO Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 60 47 30 30 10 24 ADI Toledo 59 44 33 21 9 35 Dayton 60 40 35 40 6 20 Cincinnati 63 54 24 23 12 23 Columbus 69 55 23 24 8 21 Cleveland 55 41 32 35 12 25 Youngstown 58 56 38 27 5 17 OREGON Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 51 37 36 30 13 34 ADI Bosie 63 42 34 29 3 29 Medford 52 41 32 25 16 34 Eugene 44 28 40 32 17 40 Spokane 56 28 39 28 6 44 Portland 51 39 35 29 14 32 PENNSYLVANIA Approve Disapprove Don't Know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 56 39 35 37 8 24 ADI Erie 71 52 21 37 8 11 Pittsburgh 59 40 31 34 10 26 Harrisburg 67 51 23 23 10 27 Philadelphia 46 30 46 45 8 25 Scranton 74 55 26 19 - 26 g. TEXAS Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 60 36 30 36 10 28 ADI Corpus Christi 45 31 52 45 3 24 Houston 53 36 39 40 8 24 Beaumont/Pt. Arthur 73 61 18 33 9 6 Shrevport/Texarkana 81 47 11 28. 8 25 Austin 67 36 19 39 14 25 Waco/Temple 50 42 39 25 11 33 Dallas/Ft. Worth 66 38 25 36 9 25 Odessa/Midland 44 17 22 42 33 42 San Antonio 47 29 41 31 11 40 El Paso 66 17 17 31 17 52 Abilene/Sweetwater 44 25 39 47 16 28 Lubbock 79 46 14 24 7 31 Amarillo 72 28 17 28 11 44 & WASHINGTON Approve Disapprove Don't know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 49 33 39 33 12 33 - ADI Bellingham 50 33 28 28 22 39 Spokane 49 32 36 34 15 33 Yakima 50 33 38 33 13 33 Portland 48 38 33 29 19 33 Seattle/Tacoma 50 33 41 34 9 33 & WISCONSIN Approve Disapprove Don ' t know Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Nixon Agnew Statewide 58 37 38 28 3 35 ADI Minneapolis 67 41 30 25 3 34 Madison 55 34 42 36 2 30 Chicago 52 34 44 29 4 36 Green Bay 66 41 30 22 4 36 Committee for the Re-election of the President MEMORANDUM August 7, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN CONFIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING Emprise E.O. 12065, NARS, Section Date 6-102 1-14-80 By MEMORANDUM FOR: THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR FROM: ROBERT M. TEETER SUBJECT: Wave III Schedule Because we will want to turn the Wave III data around as fast as possible we should decide on at least a tentative time schedule sometime soon so the individual polling companies can make their plans. Wave III will consist of very short interviews and sample ballots done in the priority states. We do not need to make a final decision on the exact list of states until later although it would be helpful to let them know if we are going to add any states that we have not done before. Our plan will be to do the field work over two or three days and have the data delivered within a week to ten days after field start. This presents us with a slight problem as the logical weekend to do the interviewing is Labor Day weekend on which it is simply impossible to get good interviews as too many people are away from home. Therefore, our alternatives are to do the field work on the weekend of August 25-27 which is immediately after the Convention or to do them from September 6 to 9 which is immediately after Labor Day. I recommend doing it in the September 6-9 period which would give us data not later than September 16. The reasons for this are: 1) The August period is too soon after the Convention. 2) There are too many people away on vacations the last part of August who will all be back home after Labor Day. 3) People simply seem to be more settled and thinking more seriously about the election after Labor Day than before. 4) This will give us a very hard reading of our exact situation at the beginning of the final campaign period and allow us to revise our priority state list immediately prior to the implementation of most of our campaign effort. Recommendation: That we tentatively plan on the following Wave III schedule. Questionnaire approval, August 28. Field start, September 6. Report delivery September 16. Approve Disapprove Comments CONFIDENTIAL