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This file contains:
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Presidential Letters and Watches for Rockefeller and Seconders. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], 9/2/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Evans and Novak Column on Teeter's Jewish Voters Memorandum. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1972
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Jewish Voters. Original newspaper article from the Washington Post attached titled, "Nixon's Jewish Vote Flap." 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/8/1972
By: George Gallup RE: The Gallup Poll, Nixon Widens Lead Over McGovern in Latest Test. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 8/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Evans and Novak Columnn on Teeter's Jewish Voters Memorandum. Copy of article attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1972
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Jewish Voters. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/8/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 14-19
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WHSF: Contested, 14-19
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This file contains:
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Presidential Letters and Watches for Rockefeller and Seconders. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], 9/2/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Evans and Novak Column on Teeter's Jewish Voters Memorandum. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1972
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Jewish Voters. Original newspaper article from the Washington Post attached titled, "Nixon's Jewish Vote Flap." 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/8/1972
By: George Gallup RE: The Gallup Poll, Nixon Widens Lead Over McGovern in Latest Test. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 8/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Evans and Novak Columnn on Teeter's Jewish Voters Memorandum. Copy of article attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1972
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Jewish Voters. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/8/1972
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
14
19
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs.
14
19
9/2/1972
Personal
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Presidential Letters and Watches for
Rockefeller and Seconders. 1 pg.
14
19
9/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Evans and Novak Column on Teeter's
Jewish Voters Memorandum. 1 pg.
14
19
8/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Jewish Voters. Original newspaper
article from the Washington Post attached
titled, "Nixon's Jewish Vote Flap." 4 pgs.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Page 1 of 2
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
14
19
8/30/1972
Campaign
Report
By: George Gallup RE: The Gallup Poll,
Nixon Widens Lead Over McGovern in
Latest Test. 3 pgs.
14
19
9/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Evans and Novak Columnn on Teeter's
Jewish Voters Memorandum. Copy of article
attached. 2 pgs.
14
19
8/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Robert M. Teeter To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Jewish Voters. 3 pgs.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Page 2 of 2
September 4, 1972
ME MORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT :
1972 U.S. Senste Races
This memorandum briefly describes the status of the 33 U.S. Senate
races. The attachment describes each race with the surrent estimation
of the chances for victory by Clark MacGregor (CM), Harry Dent (D).
Fred Malek (FM), Bill Timmons (BT), and Robert Marik (RM), along
with Bob Tester (T). The comments by MacGregor, Dent, Timmens,
Tester, and Malek's Field Operation are given below for the 18 swing
states:
Alabama
Dent believes Blount could win because of the straight party ticket
voting. Also, a black is entering the race. This will pull votes from
Sparkman.
Tester says Blount is moving up in the polls and is now within
10-15%, up substantially from the Wave II polis.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists Alabama as 5th in its
6 priority races (Rhade Island, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Carolina,
Alabama, and Montana). In each of these races they will give the
Republican candidate $70 - 75,000. Dent says they are asking 1701
for an additional $500,000 to distribute between September 15 and 30.
Georgia
Dent says Fletcher Thompson is coming up but would have had a
better chance against Gambrell. Maddex's blast at McGovern helped
the President and Thempson. The President's coattails and personal
identification with Thompson would be very helpful.
2
Tester indicates there are no polls available. He knows
Thempson personally and characterises him as an "opportunist"
and "free spirit".
MacGreger and Malek concur in this assessment of Thempson
(opportunist). They urge money and organizational support for
Thompson.
Timmons says Thompson is a long shot but possible.
Idaho
Dent says the race is closer than previously believed. The
President could really help with personal identification.
MacGregor and Malek say there are still party wounds from the
tough primary. Tester concurs. All indicate McClure needs money
and organisational help.
Timmons believes McClure should win.
Kentucky
Dent urges more Presidential identification with Nunn, who
should win.
Tester reports Nuan is moving up in recent polls.
MacGregor says the field organization is good, but Malek says
Numa needs money. There is some question about a possible commit-
ment of measy made by Mitchell to get Numa to run.
Timmons says Nuna is a winner.
Louisiana
Dent reports that the Republican candidate, Ben Teledano, could
have a chance in the three-and possibly four-way race. Bennett
Johnson is the conservative Democratic candidate. Ex-Gevernor
McKeithan, who is running as an Independent will split the Demo-
cratic vote. McKeithan is also urging a black to run to pull votes
from Johnston.
3
Maine
Tester urges a non-political trip by the President to show his
support of Smith as a national figure. She needs no money.
Michigan
Dent believes this is very close though he .... Griffin with a
slight edge.
Tester says the polls have had Griffin ahead and behind twice
in the last year. Busing may fade some by November. Tester
urges Administration assistance in the form of grants or projects,
especially in the Detroit tri-county area.
MacGregor says Griffin needs money and Administration assistance.
Malek indicates that all telephone and deer-to-door canvassing is
done jointly by the President and Griffin's
Montana
Dent says Hibbard has a better chance than previously thought.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Montana listed 6th. A
Presidential sweep could pull Hibbard in.
Tester says there are no pollo available. Mitchell is well liked
in Montana.
Malek says Hibbard is a poor candidate with 8 poor organisation.
New Mexico
Dent gives Domenici a 50/50 chance.
Tester says Domenici needs money.
Malek reports that neither the President's nor Domenici's organizations
are very strong. Domenici needs money and organizationsl support.
Timmons says Domenici hapen good chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists New Mexico 2nd in
its list of 6 top priority sents.
North Carolina
Dent says Helms has a 50/50 chance but badly needs idenfification
with the President.
Tester's month old data indicates Helms is behind in spite of the
President's huge lead.
MasGregor and Malek indicate Helms needs maney but organisa-
tional help more.
Timmons believes Helms is a good possibility.
The SenaterCal Campaign Committee has North Carolina fourth.
Oklahoma
Dent says Bartlett really needs identification with the President.
Bellmon's gratuitory slap at Bartlett recently didn't help.
Teller urges a Presidential visit because Bartiett needs the
identification and the President is so for ahoad there is little risk.
Malek reports Bartlett has real organizational problems.
Timmons says Bartlett has a fighting chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Oklahoma 3rd.
Oregon
Dent says Hatfleld should win because McCall is still staying out,
Tester says the race is very close because Halfield's approval
rating is se low (35% by Republicans). McCall is very popular (65%
by Republicans) and should be encouraged to help Hatfield.
Malek says Hatffold has no money problems but the 1701 and
Hatfield organisations are net helping each other to the degree that
they should.
Timmons says Hatfield will win.
5
Rhode Island
Dent says this is our best chance for a Democratic sent, but
he wonders whether Chafee will vote with the President.
Tester says the race is closer than mest believe, and Chafee's
lead is the "softest" in the country.
Malek says money is not a problem but needs organisational help.
Chafee has been "playing anti-Nixon games" so far.
Timmons says Chafee is a winner.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Rhode Island at the
top of their list of six.
South Daketa
Dent believes this should be our #1 defensive battle. Hirsch is
coming on strong and would totally support the President. Abouresk
is identificitiso closely with McGovera.
Techer says Hirsch was way behind but since Abouresk is so
close to McGovern, Hirsch has a chance.
Malek urges money for Hirsch but no Presidential visit.
Timmens says Hirsch is a sure leser.
Texas
Dent says this should be our #2 defensive battle.
Tester believes Tower will win, because the President is so strong.
Malek says money is no preblem and the organizational problems are
resolving themselves. 1701 and Tower are working their telephone
campaigns together.
Virginia
Dent says Scott could only win if the President won by a landslide.
Even Harry Byrd doesn't like Scott. Scott would vote with the President
If elected.
6
Malek urges some money for organizational help but suggests
that Scott be kept off the road and that there be no Presidential visit,
The possibility of sending Cliff White into Virginia was raised.
Timmons says Virginia is a long shot,
To summarise, the President should visit Texas and Oklahoma.
In the other states, money and behind the scenes organizational help
should be given.
GS:pm
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Alabama
Blount (R)
D
RM, FM
Sparkman (D)
CM, T
Alaska
Stevens (R)
RM, CM, T
D, FM
Guess (D)
Arkansas
Babbitt (R)
I, D, RM
McClellan (D)
FM, CM
Colorado
Allott (R)
RM, CM,
(Democrat
FM, D, T
Primary 9/12)
Delaware
Boggs (R)
RM, CM,
Biden (D)
FM, D, T
Georgia
Thompson (R)
RM, CM,
Nunn (D)
FM, D, T
Idaho
McClure (R)
D, BT
RM, CM,
Davis (D)
FM, T
Illinois
Percy (R)
RM, CM,
D
Pucinski (D)
FM, T
Iowa
Miller (R)
T, RM, CM,
Clark (D)
FM, D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Kansas
Pearson (R)
T, CM, FM
RM
Tetzlaff (D)
D
Kentucky
Nunn (R)
BT
RM, D
CM, FM
T
Huddleston (D)
Louisiana
Toledano (R)
D
RM, CM
T
Johnston (D)
FM
McKeithan (I)
Maine
Smith (R)
FM, BT, D
T, RM, CM
Hathaway (D)
Mass.
Brooke (R)
T, CM, FM
(Democratic
RM, D, BT
Primary 9/19)
Michigan
Griffin (R)
T, RM,
Kelley (D)
CM, FM
D
Minnesota
Hansen (R)
D
T, CM,
Mondale (D)
FM, RM
BT
Mississippi
Carmichael (R)
RM, FM,
Eastland (D)
CM, T, D
Montana
Hibbard (R)
D
T, RM,
Metcalf (D)
CM, FM
Nebraska
Curtis (R)
T, RM, CM
FM
Carpenter (D)
D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
N.H.
(Republican
FM
T, RM, CM
D
Primary 9/12)
McIntyre (D)
N.J.
Case (R)
T, CM, FM,
Krebs (D)
RM, D, BT
New Mexico
Domenici (R)
RM, D, BT
T, CM, FM
Daniels (D)
N. C.
Helms (R)
RM, CM.
T
Galifianakis (D)
FM, D, BT
Oklahoma
Bartlett (R)
RM, CM,
T
Edmondson (D)
FM, D, BT
Oregon
Hatfield (R)
BT
RM, CM,
T, D
Morse (D)
FM
Rhode Island
Chafee (R)
BT
T, RM, CM,
Pell (D)
FM, D
S. Carolina
Thurmond (R)
T, RM,
Ziegler (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
S. Dakota
Hirsch (R)
T, CM,
RM, D
Abourezk (D)
FM
Tennessee
Baker (R)
T, RM,
Blanton (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Texas
Tower (R)
T
CM, FM,
Sanders (D)
RM, D
Virginia
Scott (R)
T, RM,
Spong (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
W. Virginia
Leonard (R)
T, RM,
Randolph (D)
CM, FM
D
Wyoming
Hansen (R)
T, FM,
RM
Vinich (D)
CM, D
September 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Presidential Letters and
Watches for Rockefeller
and Seconders
The Presidential lettersto Governor Rockefeller and the
Seconders are in the courier departing Washington today
at 2:00 p.m. Price reviewed the revised texts with Roland
Elliott this morning. Three versions for the Republican
democrats and escorts were approved. Price personally
made some changes to the Rockefeller letter. The watches
to accompany the letters are also in the courier. The
President's signature has been affixed to 9 of the letters.
A review of the files indicates that the President usually
initials letter to Rockefeller, Buckley and Hickel. The
others bear the President's standard signature. Marje Acker
has been alerted that this package of materials will arrive
today. After her final review, the letters and watches will
be sent out today from San Clemente.
The delay in the dispatch of the lettersand watches to
Rockefeller and the Seconders is my fault. I had been working
with Bill Timmons and Stan Anderson preparing an overall
Convention thank-you proposal covering Volunteers, Pages,
YVP's, Bresidential certificates, etc. This proposal is in
today's courier. I did not separate and expedite the letters
and watches to Rockefeller and the Seconders as I should have
in lightsof your explicit instructions last Saturday. I
sincerely regret not explaining these facts to you Bast night.
Concerning your direction that I call all recipients by
10:00 a.m. PDT, to advise them that the letters and watches
were signed and sent from San Clemente, calls have been placed
by the White House operators. If I cannot reach the principal,
I will advise his office or assistant. The pretext of the
call is to check addresses for the material that is being
sent today.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Evans and Novak Column on
Teeter's Jewish Voters
Memorandum
The September 1 Washington Post carries an Evans and
Novak column, which describes the campaign organization
debate over Bob Teeter's August 8 memorandum to you on
Jewish Voters.
A review of our records indicates you sent the memorandum
to no one and the only copy besides the attached original
is in my Teeter file.
Discussion with Fred Malek and Jeb Magruder indicates that
Malek sent copies to Max Fisher and Larry Coldberg.
Malek urged them to treat the memorandum as strictly
confidential. Malek grilled Goldberg this morning and
has reached the preliminary conclusion that he did not
leak the information.
Magruder believes that Max Fisher discussed the memorandum
with Rita Hauser, who leaked it to Evans and Novak.
Teeter, who discussed the conclusions with Fisher when
Fisher called asking questions, believes Fisher is the
source.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RUT
SUBJECT:
Jewish Voters
The purpose of this memo is to summarize the Wave II data on
Jewish voters. As the Jewish population does not give us a
statistically significant sample of Jews in most of the states,
we grouped the Jews from the priority states and paid special
attention to New York and California where there is the largest
concentration of Jews.
While the President has increased his support among Jewish voters
since January, he is not running significantly better with them than
the expected vote for a Republican presidential candidate. Using
normal vote projections, the President is running 8% ahead of
normal Republican vote in New York and California with all voters
but only even with the normal vote in New York, and Nixon is behind
the normal vote in California with Jewish voters. This is in con-
trast to almost every other demographic group. The President
is running well ahead of normal vote projections for almost all
of the other demographic groups in New York and California.
Jewish Voters Only
Normal
Rep.
Wave II
Wave I
Vote
Nix.
McG
Und.
Nix.
Hump.
Und.
Nix.
Mus.
Und.
New York
30%
27%
63%
10%
26%
60%
14%
12%
82%
6%
California
30
18
79
4
29
64
7
13
66
22
The Jewish vote appears to be largely a function of party affiliation
and past voting behavior. In terms of past voting behavior, only
7% of the Jews are behavorial Republicans, and 31% are ticket-splitters,
while 62% are Democrats. Moreover, McGovern's nomination does not
appear to have had a major affect on the Jewish vote. There are very
small differences between the Jewish support for both McGovern and
Humphrey.
- 2 -
The data also shows a fairly consistent pattern across demographic
Jewish subgroups. Nixon does slightly better with older Jews than
younger Jews; however, the margins are much more consistent than
the total of all voters. The same pattern is true with income.
Nixon is only somewhat better off with higher income Jews than with
lower incomes.
In general, Nixon has a low approval rating on the way he handles
the job of being President.
Job Approval Rating
Jewish
Voters
National
California
New York
Approve
41%
58%
51%
53%
Disapprove
36
30
36
35
In comparison to their handling of issues, Jewish voters give the
President much lower ratings on most issues than the ratings given
to McGovern.
Jewish
Ratings in New York
Nixon
McGovern
Pos.
Neg.
Pos.
Neg.
Drugs
24%
74%
51%
19%
Taxes
32
67
56
22
Health Care
46
53
63
13
Vietnam
41
59
63
17
Unemployment
22
77
57
18
Race
34
66
61
18
Foreign Policy
67
32
53
26
National Defense
61
34
55
22
Crime
24
75
54
22
Inflation
24
74
52
25
Environment
29
69
.63
14
Bussing
36
57
55
17
General Unrest
24
74
59
18
Welfare
29
70
60
19
The only issues on which Nixon exceeds McGovern are national defense
and foreign policy. Apparently, this is related to the President's
position on Israel. The only other issues where the President is
equal to McGovern are Vietnam and health care. On all other issues,
McGovern has a sizeable edge.
- 3 -
AS
Conclusions
The data leads us to several conclusions:
not
Tyeter
check Teety
?
1. The general notion that the President is making great inroads
?
over McGovern with Jewish voters is borne out by the data at this
time.
2. The belief that McGovern is an anathema to Jewish voters is
apparently not true. In fact McGovern actually has slightly more
committed votes in both New York and California than Humphrey.
3. It is clear that the support of the President and the reasons for
this support on the part of Jewish leaders has not been effectively
communicated to the rank and file. If we are going to make any
inroads with Jewish voters we will have to make the differences
between McGovern's and the President's positions on Israel much
better known. I would think that we should make the maximum
possible use of Senator Javits and Dr. Kissinger in this regard.
4. Under the circumstances of having a set of low issue ratings relative
to McGovern and low approval ratings, large increases in the President's
support may be difficult. The only issues where we have an advantage
are foreign policy and national defense. If these can be related to
Israel we may be able to improve our standing. On Vietnam and health
care we are equal to McGovern and these issues may also be of some
use to us. No other issues hold such a promise, and our advertising
and media to Jewish voters should be limited to those issues where
we have the edge.
5. One of the problems in increasing the President's support among
Jews is that is should be kept in mind that the great majority
of Jewish voters consider themselves liberals and see the President
as a conservative.
THE WASHINGTON POST
Friday, September 1, 1972
Cob
behind
we
blitical
split second efficiency
Paster, though
maximum
fired
and ans-
campaign
Sen, (Jacob)
tactics
by ameteur masterminding
d the Jewish
and loose organization
the 35-
this regard.
setting
million
Mr
bate re-
THE no BEGAN with
erstwhile White
Presi-
perti
an
ADE
fielency expert was
patentor
White House
trated
Ty
a
presio
(Bob)
sent
his
head at
polls
R
the Re
ert Teeter,
confi
sident,
important. Jewish
top
Jewie
month
New York and Californi
tired
ornin
Tester's interviews. Jun
lalist
Ma
Flaber
revidence be
unr
Nixon
Gover
Lawrence
Nixe
nd
was running 8 per
Gob
his own con-
and
above the normal Repub
structions to
ets;
and
om presidential vote
news quiet
Jewish
the
these two among
tion is
policy
voters, his standing
and analysis
ing
Kissin
Jewish voters only
de shared with
Tews
no
mail in New York
cant) and
mg
ve been plotting
THE BELIEF that Me-
Naion
Delifornia (16 per (ent). New
are of the Jewish
Govern is anathems to Jew-
Mixe on
stunned. In
York Jewish voters rated
busing,
voters is apparently not
other
McGovern above the Presi-
ff conferences,
wrote Malek "It is
debt on all issues except na
The
that political
slear. that the support of the
failed to recog-
tional defense and foreign
the
President and the reasons
policy
$
ignore
atward drift of
for this support on the part
with
Jews. More
Tester's gloomy conclu
of Jewish leaders has (sle)
mailing
orthoor
not been ef
commu-
theious
( Wire story sent Monday, August 28 -- for your file)
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, Aug. 30, 1972
Note to Editors: This timely report is being sent you by wire in order
to significantly decrease the time between completion
of interviewing and publishing of the results.
This takes the place of the release regularly
scheduled for Thursday.
NIXON WIDENS LEAD OVER
McGOVERN IN LATEST TEST
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., Aug. 29 -- President Richard Nixon has increased an already-
wide lead over his Democratic opponent Sen. George McGovern in the latest
Gallup "trial heat," conducted over this last weekend. The results of this
latest survey are Nixon 64%, McGovern 30%, Undecided 6%. In the previous
survey, conducted August 5-12, the figures were Nixon 57%, McGovern 31%,
Undecided 12%.
The Nixon lead over McGovern is virtually the same as the lead President
Lyndon Johnson held over his GOP opponent, Barry Goldwater, at a comparable
point in the 1964 campaign (65-29%, 6% Undecided). The latest survey was
conducted Aug. 26 and 27, two days after the close of the Republican National
Convention. Results are based on in-person interviews with 1148 registered
voters out of a total sample of 1467 adults.
Following is the question asked: "If the presidential election were
being held today, which candidate would you vote for -- McGovern, the Democrat
or Nixon, the Republican?"
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Sunday, Sept. 3
Many Favor Coalition Government
ONLY MINORITY OF PUBLIC WOULD INSIST ON GOVERNMENT RUN
BY SOUTH VIETNAMESE
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
porters holding closely comparable
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 2 - Only
views.
a minority of the American public
would insist on a government run solely
Even among the under 30 group, who
by representatives of the South Viet-
have been particularly vocal on the
namese people.
Vietnam issue, views closely parallel
those for the nation as a whole.
Six out of ten Americans say they
Military Aid
would like to see either a coalition gov-
ernment take over in South Vietnam
Support for continued military aid to
after U.S. troops are withdrawn, or
South Vietnam is also held by similar
feel that it would not make much dif-
proportions in every population group,
ference what the composition of the
including persons under 30 years of
government is in that country.
age and among McGovern supporters.
At the same time, however, a ma-
Even among persons who favor a
jority of the public feel that military
coalition government, the weight of
aid should be continued to the South
opinion is 5-to-4 in favor of sending
Vietnamese even after the withdrawal
military aid after U.S. troops are with-
of U.S. troops.
drawn. Among those who want a
government run solely by the South
Gallup surveys have consistently
Vietnamese, opinion is 2-to-1 in favor
shown the Vietnam war to be the num-
of continuing to send military supplies.
ber one concern of the American peo-
The table below shows the relation-
ple with a large majority in favor of
bringing all our troops home by the end
ship between views on the two ques-
tions:
of the year.
Should Should
Type of Government
Continue
Cut
off
No
Sought by Voters
Aid
Aid
Opin.
Little difference is found among the
%
%
%
various population groups on the ques-
Favor govt. run
tion dealing with the composition of the
by S. Vietnamese
6₄
3I
5
government in South Vietnam, with
Favor coalition
52
41
7,
McGovern supporters and Nixon sup-
Makes no difference 40
50
IO
Page Two
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Sunday, Sept. 3
Many Favor Coalition Government
ONLY MINORITY OF PUBLIC WOULD INSIST ON GOVERNMENT RUN
BY SOUTH VIETNAMESE
Here is the first question asked in
the survey:
After U.S. forces leave Vietnam,
what kind of government would you
like to see take over there - 1) one
Here is the next question asked:
run by the South Vietnamese, 2) one
After the withdrawal of U.S.
run by the Vietcong and North Viet-
troops, do you think the U.S. should
namese, 3) a coalition government
continue to send military aid to South
consisting of representatives of both
Vietnam, or do you think the U.S.
sides - or doesn't it make much dif-
should cut off all military aid?
ference to you?
Should continue aid
51%
Here are the national results:
Should cut off
39
No opinion
IO
Coalition government
40%
-
Run by South Vietnamese 29
Doesn't make much
100%
difference
21
The survey is based on in-person
Run by Vietcong/
interviews with 1465 adults, 18 and
North Vietnamese
I
older, interviewed in more than 300
No opinion
9
scientifically selected localities across
-
the nation during the period August
100%
4-5.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Evans and Novak Column on
Teeter's Jewish Voters
Memorandum
The September 1 Washington Post carries an Evans and
Novak column, which describes the campaign organization
debate over Bob Tester's August 0 memorandum to you on
Jewish Voters.
A review of our records indicates you sent the memorandum
to no one and the only copy besides the attached original
is in my Tester file.
Discussion with Fred Malek and Job Magruder indicates that
Malek sent copies to Max Fisher and Larry Goldberg.
Malek urged them to treat the memorandum as strictly
confidential. Malek grilled Goldberg this morning and
has reached the preliminary conclusion that he did not
leak the information.
Magruder believes that Max Fisher discussed the memorandum
with Rita Hauser, who leaked it to Evans and Novak.
Teeter, who discussed the conclusions with Fisher when
Fisher called asking questions, believes Fisher is the
source.
GS/jb
att.
THE WASHINGTON POST
Friday, September 1, 1972
Rowland Evans and Robert Novak
Nixon's Jewish Vote Flap
THE WEEK BEFORE the
Jewish vote is another sign
Jewish voting experts in
better known. I would think
Republican National Con-
that, behind the facade of
the Nixon campaign com-
that we should make the
vention, top Nixon political
split-second efficiency, the
plained that Teeter, though
maximum possible use of
operative Fred Malek fired
Nixon campaign is overrun
a respected pollster and ana-
Sen. (Jacob) Javits (of New
off a nail-biting memoran-
dum calling for new tacties
by amateur masterminding
lyst, had misread the Jewish
York) and Dr. Kissinger in
with Jewish voters-setting
and loose organization.
vote. But Malek, the 35-
this regard."
year-old self-made million-
off an internal debate re-
Mr. Nixon's Jewish ex-
THE FLAP BEGAN with
aire and erstwhile White
vealing much about Presi-
perts were incensed by the
an Aug. 8 memorandum to
House efficiency expert, was
dent Nixon's campaign or-
memo from Malek, running
White House major domo
deeply alarmed.
canization.
a presidential campaign as
H. R. (Bob) Haldeman from
On Aug. 15, Malek sent
his first political undertak-
Malek, operating head of
Detroit-based pollster Rob-
off Teeter's findings
ing.
the Committee for the Re-
ert M. Teeter, analyzing the
(marked "confidential") to
election of the President,
important Jewish vote in
the campaign's top Jewish
AT STAFF meetings they
was worried by three-month-
New York and California.
vote experts-retired De-
argued Malek had it all
old polls showing California
Teeter's interviews in June
troit industrialist Max
wrong; MeGovern is very
and New York Jews just as
showed that whereas Mr.
Fisher and Providence busi-
unpopular with Jews; Mr.
liberal and Democratic as
Nixon against McGovern
ness executive Lawrence
Nixon is stronger with rank
ever. So Malek recommend-
was running 8 per cent
Goldberg-with his own con-
and-file Jews than with lead-
ed greater emphasis on Mr.
above the normal Republi-
clusions and instructions to
ers; Javits cannot influence
Nixon's Israeli policy and
can presidential vote in
keep the bad news quiet
Jewish voters and Kissinger
greater use politically of the
those two states among all
("This information is for
is barred from open politick-
President's foreign policy
voters, his standing with
your own use and analysis
ing. Lower-middle-incone
adviser, Dr. Henry Kissin-
Jewish voters was only nor-
and it cannot be shared with
Jews are no longer doctri-
ger.
mal in New York (27 per
any other persons").
naire liberals and, accord
The Nixon lieutenants
cent) and below normal in
ingly, are attracted to Mr.
who long have been plotting
"THE BELIEF that Mc-
California (18 per cent). New
Nixon not only on Israel but
a better share of the Jewish
Govern is anathema to Jew-
York Jewish voters rated
also on busing, welfare and
vote were stunned. In
ish voters is apparently not
McGovern above the Presi-
other race-related questions.
heated staff conferences,
true," wrote Malek. "It is
dent on all issues except na-
The present inclination at
they argued that political
clear that the support of the
tional defense and foreign
the re-election committee is
novice Malek failed to recog-
President and the reasons
policy.
to ignore Malek's memo,
nize the rightward drift of
for this support on the part
with next month's mass
lower-income Jews. More-
Teeter's gloomy conclu-
of Jewish leaders has (sic)
mailing to Jewish voters ob-
over, a fortheoming cam-
sion: "The Jewish vote ap-
not been effectively commu-
livious to Malek's recom-
paign mailing to Jews disre-
pears to be largely a fune-
nicated to the rank and file.
mendations. Thus, the dan-
gards Malek's strictures.
tion of party affiliation and
"If we are going to make
gers of amateurism in high
Considering Mr. Nixon's
past voting behavior
any inroads with Jewish vot-
places are remedied by the
monumental lead over Sen.
moreover, McGovern's nomi-
ers we will have to make the
absence of clear lines of au-
George McGovern, such an-
nation does not appear to
differences between Mc-
thority in Mr. Nixon's cam-
ties may not matter. Never-
have bad a major effect on
Govern's and the President's
paign.
theless, the flap over the
the Jewish vote."
positions on Israel much
© 1972, Publishers-Hall Syndicate
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:-
ROBERT M. TEETER
RUT
SUBJECT:
Jewish Voters
The purpose of this memo is to summarize the Wave II data on
Jewish voters. As the Jewish population does not give us a
statistically significant sample of Jews in most of the states,
we grouped the Jews from the priority states and paid special
attention to New York and California where there is the largest
concentration of Jews.
While the President has increased his support among Jewish voters
since January, he is not running significantly better with them than
the expected vote for a Republican presidential candidate. Using
normal vote projections, the President is running 8% ahead of
normal Republican vote in New York and California with all voters
but only even with the normal vote in New York, and Nixon is behind
the normal vote in California with Jewish voters. This is in con-
trast to almost every other demographic group. The President
is running well ahead of normal vote projections for almost all
of the other demographic groups in New York and California.
Jewish Voters Only
Normal
Rep.
Wave II
Wave I
Vote
Nix.
McG
Und.
Nix.
Hump.
Und.
Nix.
Mus.
Und.
New York
30%
27%
63%
10%
26%
60%
14%
12%
82%
6%
California 30
18
79
4
29
64
7
13
66
22
The Jewish vote appears to be largely a function of party affiliation
and past voting behavior. In terms of past voting behavior, only
7% of the Jews are behavorial Republicans, and 31% are ticket-splitters,
while 62% are Democrats. Moreover, McGovern's nomination does not
appear to have had a major affect on the Jewish vote. There are very
small differences between the Jewish support for both McGovern and
Humphrey.
- 2 -
The data also shows a fairly consistent pattern across demographic
Jewish subgroups. Nixon does slightly better with older Jews than
younger Jews; however, the margins are much more consistent than
the total of all voters. The same pattern is true with income.
Nixon is only somewhat better off with higher income Jews than with
lower incomes.
In general, Nixon has a low approval rating on the way he handles
the job of being President.
Job Approval Rating
Jewish
Voters
National
California
New York
Approve
41%
58%
51%
53%
Disapprove
36
30
36
35
In comparison to their handling of issues, Jewish voters give the
President much lower ratings on most issues than the ratings given
to McGovern.
Jewish
Ratings in New York
Nixon
McGovern
Pos.
Neg.
Pos.
Neg.
Drugs
24%
74%
51%
19%
Taxes
32
67
56
22
Health Care
46
53
63
13
Vietnam
41
59
63
17
Unemployment
22
77
57
18
Race
34
66
61
18
Foreign Policy
67
32
53
26
National Defense
61
34
55
22
Crime
24
75
54
22
Inflation
24
74
52
25
Environment
29
69
63
14
Bussing
36
57
55
17
General Unrest
24
74
59
18
Welfare
29
70
60
19
The only issues on which Nixon exceeds McGovern are national defense
and foreign policy. Apparently, this is related to the President's
position on Israel. The only other issues where the President is
equal to McGovern are Vietnam and health care. On all other issues,
McGovern has a sizeable edge.
- 3 -
AS
Conclusions
not Teeter
check Teety
The data leads us to several conclusions:
not
1. The general notion that the President is making great inroads
?
over McGovern with Jewish voters is borne out by the data at this
time.
2. The belief that McGovern is an anathema to Jewish voters is
apparently not true. In fact McGovern actually has slightly more
committed votes in both New York and California than Humphrey.
3. It is clear that the support of the President and the reasons for
this support on the part of Jewish leaders has not been effectively
communicated to the rank and file. If we are going to make any
inroads with Jewish voters we will have to make the differences
between McGovern's and the President's positions on Israel much
better known. I would think that we should make the maximum
possible use of Senator Javits and Dr. Kissinger in this regard.
4. Under the circumstances of having a set of low issue ratings relative
to McGovern and low approval ratings, large increases in the President's
support may be difficult. The only issues where we have an advantage
are foreign policy and national defense. If these can be related to
Israel we may be able to improve our standing. On Vietnam and health
care we are equal to McGovern and these issues may also be of some
use to us. No other issues hold such a promise, and our advertising
and media to Jewish voters should be limited to those issues where
we have the edge.
5. One of the problems in increasing the President's support among
Jews is that is should be kept in mind that the great majority
of Jewish voters consider themselves liberals and see the President
as a conservative.