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This file contains:
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: McGovern's use of Amnesty and the Vietnam War in the campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey and Colson's views on certain campaign advertising issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Teeter's collection of and reports on recent polling data. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor RE: ORC telephone polling. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor RE: polling data from Colorado and Rhode Island. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey's purchase of key ad spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: a campaign spot on Russia. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to initiate an ORC poll in response to data gathered during the Campaign Survey Wave III National Poll. Attached are sample poll questions. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: H. Ross Perot's role in the 1972 campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: a campaign spot on Russia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Wave III of the Campaign Surveys. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Bill Blair and the Kennedy Center. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: granting Teeter acces to a private ORC survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: completion of Wave III of the Campaign Surveys. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Congressional campaigns in 1972. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
Talking paper generated by Strachan for a political meeting on state advisers, VP advertising, and general attack strategies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Congressional campaigns in 1972. Information on Congressional Republicans attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the distribution of Wave III polling results to prominent White House staff members. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 9/15/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: briefing White House staff members on the results of Wave II polling. Handwritten notes added on original by Haldeman. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Andrews and the Ohio Campaign Train. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
Sheet of notes, possibly generated by Strachan, detailing the use of a Campaign Train for Andrews. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: running a positive RN ad on television. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Connally's spot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Tom Benham's electoral vote forecast. Copy of projected 1972 electoral vote attached. Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Tom Benham to unknown RE: the Opinion Research Corporation's electoral vote projection plan. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/10/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies and Gallup surveys. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the opinions of various White House officials on Connally's television spot. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26145649
label
WHSF: Contested, 15-2
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145649
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 15-2
description
This file contains:
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: McGovern's use of Amnesty and the Vietnam War in the campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey and Colson's views on certain campaign advertising issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Teeter's collection of and reports on recent polling data. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor RE: ORC telephone polling. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor RE: polling data from Colorado and Rhode Island. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey's purchase of key ad spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: a campaign spot on Russia. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to initiate an ORC poll in response to data gathered during the Campaign Survey Wave III National Poll. Attached are sample poll questions. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: H. Ross Perot's role in the 1972 campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: a campaign spot on Russia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Wave III of the Campaign Surveys. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Bill Blair and the Kennedy Center. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: granting Teeter acces to a private ORC survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: completion of Wave III of the Campaign Surveys. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Congressional campaigns in 1972. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
Talking paper generated by Strachan for a political meeting on state advisers, VP advertising, and general attack strategies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Congressional campaigns in 1972. Information on Congressional Republicans attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the distribution of Wave III polling results to prominent White House staff members. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 9/15/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: briefing White House staff members on the results of Wave II polling. Handwritten notes added on original by Haldeman. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Andrews and the Ohio Campaign Train. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
Sheet of notes, possibly generated by Strachan, detailing the use of a Campaign Train for Andrews. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: running a positive RN ad on television. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Connally's spot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Tom Benham's electoral vote forecast. Copy of projected 1972 electoral vote attached. Handwritten notes on original added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Tom Benham to unknown RE: the Opinion Research Corporation's electoral vote projection plan. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/10/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies and Gallup surveys. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the opinions of various White House officials on Connally's television spot. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Source extras
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26145649
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
9/22/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: McGovern's
use of Amnesty and the Vietnam War in the
campaign. 1 pg.
15
2
9/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey and
Colson's views on certain campaign
advertising issues. 1 pg.
15
2
9/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Teeter's
collection of and reports on recent polling
data. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor
RE: ORC telephone polling. 2 pgs.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 1 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Teeter to MacGregor
RE: polling data from Colorado and Rhode
Island. 1 pg.
15
2
9/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Dailey's
purchase of key ad spots. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman
RE: a campaign spot on Russia. Handwritten
notes on original added by Haldeman. 1 pg.
15
2
9/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or
not to initiate an ORC poll in response to
data gathered during the Campaign Survey
Wave III National Poll. Attached are sample
poll questions. 6 pgs.
15
2
9/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: H. Ross
Perot's role in the 1972 campaign. 1 pg.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 2 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
9/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman
RE: a campaign spot on Russia. 1 pg.
15
2
9/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information
on Wave III of the Campaign Surveys. 1 pg.
15
2
9/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Bill Blair
and the Kennedy Center. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: granting
Teeter acces to a private ORC survey. 1 pg.
15
2
9/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman
RE: completion of Wave III of the Campaign
Surveys. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. 1 pg.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 3 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
9/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE:
Congressional campaigns in 1972. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/18/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Talking paper generated by Strachan for a
political meeting on state advisers, VP
advertising, and general attack strategies. 1
pg.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE:
Congressional campaigns in 1972.
Information on Congressional Republicans
attached. 6 pgs.
15
2
9/15/1972
White House Staff
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the
distribution of Wave III polling results to
prominent White House staff members. 1 pg.
15
2
7/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman
RE: briefing White House staff members on
the results of Wave II polling. Handwritten
notes added on original by Haldeman. 2 pgs.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 4 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John
Andrews and the Ohio Campaign Train. 1 pg.
15
2
>
Campaign
Other Document
Sheet of notes, possibly generated by
Strachan, detailing the use of a Campaign
Train for Andrews. 3 pgs.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: running a
positive RN ad on television. 1 pg.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Connally's
spot. 1 pg.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Tom
Benham's electoral vote forecast. Copy of
projected 1972 electoral vote attached.
Handwritten notes on original added by
unknown. 2 pgs.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 5 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
2
8/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Tom Benham to unknown RE: the
Opinion Research Corporation's electoral
vote projection plan. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John
Davies and Gallup surveys. 2 pgs.
15
2
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the
opinions of various White House officials on
Connally's television spot. 2 pgs.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Page 6 of 6
September 22, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
The question of Amnesty is receiving substantial
attention and promotion by the President's
campaign. McGovern may address the nation
on Amnesty and Vietnam.
In light of this, you may want to re-read
Teeter's memorandum following Wave II, in which he
argues that amnesty is an integral part of
Vietnam and subject to similar age-group variations.
GS:car
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Advertising
Peter Dailey confirmed the purchase of two 5-minute spots
for the Russia commercial. After the NBC Monday Night
Movie on September 25, probably from 10:55-11:00 p.m.,
and on CBS after the Thursday Night Movie, probably from
10:55-11:00 p.m., are set.
Dailey is quite upset at the Ken Clawson story in tonight's
Star (attached) describing the DFN commercials which may
be run. It is Dailey's view that Clawson partially destroyed
the credibility of Connally and the DFN by disclosing White
House knowledge and participation in the DFN ads. Dailey
believes that if anyone must talk to the press about cam-
paign advertising it should be him.
Colson suggested at this morning's 9:15 attack meeting
that it might be a good idea to show the press a preview
of the DFN commercials during a George Christian press
conference. This would increase speculation and interest.
It is Dailey's view that this is a mistake. He does not
want to make advertising per se, an issue nor does he
want to give McGovern time to think about a response to the
commercials before they are aired.
Recommendation
That Peter Dailey be established as the sole spokesman
on campaign advertising with control over public disclosure
of the ads themselves.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment
GS/jb
September 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Surveys -
Wave III
Bob Teeter delivered all the Wave III materials
except the New Jersey and National results which
ORC has not delivered because of interviewing and
computer problems. New Jersey should arrive later
today and the National by Saturday, September 23.
Teeter also delivered the memorandum attached at Tab
A on the tracking, telephone polling. He recommends
against doing panel work immediately but would be
prepared to panel after nine days of tracking. The
panel capability would be ORC. To begin the
telephone tracking on September 25 as planned, he
needs your decision today. MacGregor has agreed
with Teeter's recommendation of no immediate panel
work.
Teeter briefed Ehrlichman, Cole, Harper and Morey
on the issue materials by state this morning. He
will discuss the results with Ehrlichman's group on
September 25 after he has analyzed the national
issue results. Teeter will brief Colson today
at 12:00 noon on the results. He will not discuss
the trial heats, but Dick Howard has indicated
Colson already has them. The rest of the briefings
will occur next week subject to the non-disclosure
of trial heat data.
Teeter submitted at Tab B the figures on Rhode Island
from a Becker poll conducted September 15-17 showing
the President ahead 52-23 and Chafee ahead 49-34. He
will try to get West Virginia and Massachusetts data
today.
-- 2 --
The large binder accompanying this memorandum
contains the complete dataa from each state in
the format you approved following Wave I. The small
binder is the suggested format for trips. It
contains trial heat summary of all states; the
entire National Survey summary (available
September 23); and, for each state: the summary
page; the President's approval by demographics; the
trial heat demographics; the rating of the
President's and McGovern's ability to handle the
issues; and, the importance of issues. Also,
the National Questionnaire, with the state
questions circled and the trend question from
Wave I and II asterisked are attached.
GS:car
COMME TEL FC Tt II RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANOUM
September 20, 1972
/EYES ONLY
By EmPriss
1-14-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Telephone Polling
Having now had a chance to look at the Wave III data I think we
now have two options for our telephone polling which is scheduled
to start next week. We will need to make a decision on which of
these designs we want to use next week by Thursday, September 21
in order to begin on Monday.
They are:
1) To have ORC use the phone polling capability to do 4-6 statewide
telephone polls using probability samples of 500-600. If we did this
I would recommend we do New York, California, Michigan, Pennsylvania
and Missouri in that order. It would take two days to do each of
these meaning we would have data on New York next Wednesday and five
states done in 8-9 days.
Once these were completed we could then do panels from Wave III in
any states which we saw significant movement, panel the ORC phone
polls, repeat the same cycle of states using probability samples, or
do additional state polls either in our priority states or where we
are interested in local races.
2) We could delay the start of our daily phone interviewing one
week and do panels in 4-5 states. If we decide on this design, I
recommend we do the panels in New York, California, Michigan, and
either Pennsylvania or Illinois. These panels would be done by
the same companies who did the Wave IlI polling in these states.
- 2 -
DETERMINED TO DE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
CONFIDENT IAL/TYES ONLY
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
NARS, Date 4-28-82
In either case the basic questionnaire will be short and designed
to identify any changes in current voting intent or in the issue
structure. It will, of course, be possible to add or delete questions
on specific issues or events at any time. We will also have the
ability to,do quick national pells over 1-2 days to check any specific
issues or developments in the campaign.
RECOMMENDATION:
That we proceed with option one and have ORC begin a series of state-
wide telephone polls in the states listed above on Monday.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment:
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELLCTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
We have just received data from two statewide polls done
for Senate candidates in Colorado and Rhode Island.
Colorado
1506 Personal Interviews
September 6-11, 1972
D.M.I.
Nixon
58%
McGovern
21
Undecided
21
While he did not want to give us the exact figures Senator
Allott's people have concluded he is safe based on this poll.
Rhode Island
500 Telephone Interviews
September 15-17, 1972
Becker Research
Nixon
52%
Chafee
49%
McGovern
23
Pell
34
Other
1
Undecided
17
Undecided
24
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 20, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Advertising and
Budget Decisions
At today's Budget Meeting, Clark MacGregor directed
Peter Dailey to do everything possible to purchase
three 5-minute spots to run the Russia spot during
the week of September 25 in light of the Gromyko visit.
MacGregor told the group this decision was reached at
yesterday's meeting with the President.
Dailey believes he can re-purchase at least one 5-
minute prime time slot after the CBS movie on Thursday
evening, September 28. However, Dailey is still not
sure what changes need to be made in the Russia spot.
You indicated you would talk to Dailey directly on
changes in the spot. This should be done soon if
MacGregor's direction is to be implemented. You may
want to discuss this at the Political Meeting in
Shrlichman's office tomorrow.
Peter Dailey had cancelled the positive advertising
time for the week of September 25 in light of the
decision to run only DFN attack materials. (Purchased
times for these DFN spots are not yet confirmed.)
Dailey was unable to cancel two 5-minute spots on
September 26 and September 28 during mid-day spaps.
He plans to run the Older Americans 5-minute in these
slots. The regular positive ad program will begin
October 2, with the documentary ("Change Without Chaos -
The Record") to be run the week of October 8. The
Mexican American ads in California and Texas will begin
on September 25, because Dailey feels the educational
rather than re-enforcement process takes longer.
- 2 -
Other budget matters covered include:
1) The September 26 Dinners are 2,000 short of the
goal of 7-8,000. California and New York are in at
2,000 and 1,500 respectively but other states are way
below quota,
2) MacGregor said the polling allotted for the last
6 weeks of the campaign would be cut back substantially.
The 84 in daily telephone tracking would be done begin-
ning September 25, but panelling, special state surveys,
and any thought about Wave IV should be dropped for
budgetary reasons,
3) The Night for Nixon project to raise 5,000 was the
subject of a heated exchange between Malek, who does not
want to have his field operation 25% less effective, and
Tom Evans, who says this would be a great test as well
as raise some money. A compromise was reached whereby
only those states which want to do Nights for Nixon will;
4) Stans bemoaned the changed circumstances in the
campaign making the 40,000 goal more difficult, but
MacGregor responded with a team spirit appeal. Stans
says he will really know whether personnel and adver-
tising must be cut further on September 30.
GS/jb
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Campaign Russia
5 Minute Spot
You reviewed the Russia 5 Minute Spot last
Thursday, September 14, when you saw the
Connally 5 Minute Spots. In Peter Dailey's
meeting with the President and you on Friday,
September 15, the subject of the Russia 5
and 1 minute spots was raised but Dailey does not
know what decision was reached. Dailey decided
on his own to drop the basketball sequence in
light of the Olympics.
The attached September 14 Action Memorandum
indicates some specific changes. Also, the
Tanya reference has been dropped from the
Drug Speech. lond?
What specifically should Dailey do to the
Russia 5 and 1 minute
I spots? tack to him
September 20, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
ORC Campaign
Survey #1
The question is whether it would be useful to have
ORC conduct a survey this weekend to assess any
changes in the trial heat results and campaign
issues.
The Campaign Survey Wave III National Poll was
conducted September 5 to September 16. The state
surveys for Wave III were conducted between
September 5th and 7th to the 14th. Harris is in
the field September 19 - 21. Colson is not sure
when the results will be available, but past
experience indicates he ould get them as early
as September 24. Gallup will be in the field
September 23 and 24. John Davies told me the results
would be available on September 28.
Colson received Sindlinger's most recent survey
on September 19, which covered September 15 - 18.
and showed both the President and McGovern moving
up slichtly (2%) with little change in the 39%
separating them.
An ORC survey could be conducted this weekend with
results Monday, September 25. Subjects that
could be tested include reaction to the Democrats
for Nixon, the Watergate, varous McGovern positions
as well as Trial Heats. A suggested questionnaire
is attached. Tom Benham, who is anxious to poll,
doubts that it will be very helpful. Any movement
since the Wave III data has not been detected by
- 2 -
Sindlinger. Colson should have Harris data
sufficiently ahead of the release date to
position the campaign correctly and hopefully,
I will have the Gallup data prior to release.
The net result is that I recommend against
conducting an ORC survey this weekend.
AGREE
DISAGREE
COMMENT
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is
handling his job as President?
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is
handling the Vietnam situation?
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is
dealing with the economic conditions in this country?
4. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today
and the candidates were Richard Nixon and George McGovern, which
one would you vote for -- Nixon or McGovern?
If neither, don't know or undecided, ask question 5.
5. Would you say that you lean more towards Richard Nixon
or more towards George McGovern?
6. Have you definitely made up your mind which candidate you
prefer for President or is there a possibility that you will
change your mind during the campaign?
7. Have you seen, read or heard anything about the so-called
"Watergate incident" in June when five men were arrested while
trying to break in and bug the Democratic National Committee
Headquarters at the Watergate Hotel?
8. What is your reaction to Senator McGovern's Presidential
campaign SO far - very favorable, fairly favorable, fairly unfavor-
able or very unfavorable?
- 2 -
9. What do you like most about his campaign?
10. What do you like least about his campaign?
11. Have you seen or heard any commercials on television on
behalf of George McGovern?
If yes on question 11 -
12. Was your overall impression of these commercials very
favorable, fairly favorable, fairly unfavorable or very unfavorable?
13. In reporting news about George McGovern, do you think the
nation's press has been biased in his favor, biased against him,
or neutral?
14. In reporting news about President Nixon, do you think the
nation's press has been biased in his favor, biased against him,
or neutral?
15. Senator McGovern has made a series of charges against President
Nixon and his Administration. I would like to mention some of these
and ask whether you agree with the charges, disagree with the charges
or haven't you heard anything about them?
a) Senator McGovern has charged that under President Nixon
Southeast Asia has become a major source of heroin supply because
the Administration would not crack down on the drug traffic through
Laos, Thailand and South Vietnam.
- 3 -
b) Senator McGovern has charged that inside information
from the Nixon Administration has enabled large scale company
grain traders to profit from the sale of wheat to Russia.
c) Senator McGovern has charged that President Nixon
order a whitewash in the investigation of the Watergate
bugging case by the Department of Justice.
d) Senator McGovern has charged that President Nixon's
wage/price controls have had the overall effect of hurting
the average worker and benefitting the profits of Big Business.
16. How much have you heard or read about John Connally -
a great deal, a fair amount, very little or nothing at all?
If a great deal, a fair amount or very little, ask 16a.
a) Is your general impression of John Connally favorable
or unfavorable?
17. John Connally is heading up a group called Democrats for
Nixon. How successful do you think this group will be in getting
Democrats to vote for President Nixon - very successful, fairly
successful, or not successful at all?
(OR)
- 4 -
16. There is a group called Democrats for Nixon that is
headed up by John Connally, former Governor of Texas and
Secretary of the Treasury. Have you heard or read anything
about this group?
17. Some say this group attracts only a small number of
wealthy Democrats, while others say it attracts a broad
crossection of all kinds of Democrats who are unhappy with
the Democratic Presidential candidate. Which do you think -
a small number of wealthy Democrats or a broad crossection?
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
H. Ross Perot
He called you today to ask for a brief meeting with you
tomorrow morning. I told him I would check.
Perot has still not contributed to the 1972 campaign to
re-elect President Nixon, according to Tom Evans. Perot
has called Evans, indicated he wanted to see him about
contributing, but reviewed his laments at length:
1) Perot is "less than enchanted by the treatment
he receives from the White House Staff, but he likes
the President".
2) Perot wants a "signal directly from Haldeman"
as to whether the Administration wants Perot to contri-
bute In light of charges of favoritism, etc. He suggested
to Evans a post-election contribution.
As you may recall from the extensive study done on Perot
in January 1972, he has contributed nothing and received
a great deal. Instead of telling Perot to "put up or
shut up" (a view which Butterfield, Cole, Higby and I
periodically favor), I should advise Perot that you will
not see him but encourage him to meet with Tom Evans.
GS/jb
September 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Russia
5 Minute Spot
You reviewed the Russia 5 Minute Spot last
Thursday, September 14, when you saw the
Connally 5 Minute Spots. In Peter Dailey's
meeting with the President and you on Friday,
September 15, the subject of the Russia 5
and 1 minute spots was raised but Dailey does not
know what decision was reached. Dailey decided
on his own to drop the basketball sequence in
light of the Olympics.
The attached September 14 Amtion Memorandum
indicates some specific changes. Also, the
Tanya reference has been dropped from the
Drug Speech.
What specifically should Dailey do to the
Russia 5 and 1 minute spots?
GS :
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Surveys - Wave III
You asked why the voting intensity ballots did not
total 100%. Bob Teeter reports that the people who
refused to fill out the ballot comprise the balance
up to 100%. This group was separated from the
"completely undecided" because the latter group is
expected to vote but just will not give a preference.
Those who refused to fill out the ballot are not
expected to vote at all.
Tom Benham this morning indicated the final national
survey trial heat results will not be available until
tomorrow September 19. This is one day behind schedule.
Behham attributes the delay to discovery of a fraudu-
lent interviewer which caused re-interview problems and
postal delay problems. Unweighted totals should be
available late tonight and would be within 2 points of
the final result.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Kennedy Center
There have been four developments since the JFK Center
Executive Board meeting on September 11.
First, you asked for the "exact status of Bill Blair re
car, salary, etc.". I called Roger Stevens, checked
with Aaron Spaulding, and obtained this information:
1) He does not have a Kennedy Center car;
2) His salary ended on June 30th,
3) He is no longer an officer of the Kennedy Center
or of Kennedy Center Productions; and
4) He has an office and a secretary at the Center,
which according to Stevens is used only for fundmaising
purposes.
Stevens confronted Blair with the problem of connection
with the Kennedy Center and claims he had an "explosion"
with Blair saying if Mrs. Marriott can work from the
Center and be a Treasurer of the Republican Party, why
can't he, Blair, keep his office. Stevens advocates a
compromise course of locking Blair's office until after
the election when Blair is expected to return to law
practice in Chicago.
Recommendation
That I push Stevens to get Blair completely out now,
finally terminating all connection with the Center.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments.
- 2 -
Second, Bill Gifford indicated that OMB has made the
tentative decision to seek $2.4 million in a budget request
in the pending supplemental apprppriation bill for the
Kennedy Center for FY 1973. The request would go this week.
The money is required for the Park Service to assume control
of the non-performing functions of the Center. Senator Percy
and Harry McPherson indicated at the Executive Board meeting
that the Park Service agreement would have to be reached
before the money would be approved by Congress. However,
the request should be submitted now 50 that Congress has
the option.
Recommendation
That OMB be authorized to implement its tentative decision
to seek $2.4 million in the supplemental appropriation bill.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
Third, the primary contractor McShane has sued the Kennedy
Center and Roger Stevens personally. Ralph Becker is review-
ing the materials and is seeking a meeting with Cap Weinberger.
Gifford will delay the meeting until after November 7. Roger
Stevens has asked Len Garment to review the materials and
discuss the matter with Becker. Garment hopes to do this
soon.
Fourth, Stevens worked with Abe Fortas on September 17 on
the letter to Senator Jennings Randolph responding to the
GAO Report. Percy and McPherson cleared the text on Friday,
September 15. Stevens would appreciate any comments you
might have. Bill Timmons has a copy of the letter and will
submit comments,
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Bob Teeter Access to
ORC Polls
After your meeting with Bob Teeter following the Campaign
Surveys - Wave I, Bob Teeter was granted access to the
ORC surveys that had been conducted privately for you.
As I mentioned in my September 12 memorandum (attached)
he learned from his Field Interviewers and Supervisors
that ORC had probably conducted a survey which asked
Watergate Incident questions. Teeter now seeks approval
to compare the last ORC survey with his Wave III data.
Approve Teeter access.
Strachan deny survey conducted.
Other.
GS/jb
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 12, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Campaign Surveys - Wave III
Bob Teeter called with a status report on the Campaign
Surveys - Wave III. All interviewing has been completed.
Collection, coding, and reporting is being done this week.
Results from all states should be available on Saturday,
September 16 or Sunday, September 17, 1972. There have
been problems with the national survey being done by ORC.
These results will probably not be available until Monday,
September 18 or Tuesday, September 19, 1972.
Teeter told me that he had just received the Wave III Ohio
"preliminary" results:
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
MOR-Sep 6-9
64
32
32
4
MOR-Jun 13-27
56
18
38
6
He also received the DMI Los Angeles and Orange County poll:
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
DMI-Aug 15-31
59
31
28
.13
DMI-Jul 15-31
56
30
13
26
He learned from some of his Field Interviewers and Super-
visors that someone had been polling on the Watergate
Incident in the last two weeks. Teeter believes we did
the polling through ORC. He did not press for information
but would like to compare his Wave III data with any ORC
trial heats and Watergate questions. The Watergate ques-
tions and results from Wave III will be delivered only to
me, not MacGregor, Magruder, and Malek.
September 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have
arisen while compiling data on Congressional races.
You would probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor
the recommended solution.
1. In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the
Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has
attempted to formulate a list of key races through
a process of checking with Congressional leaders
like Ford and Wilson, reviewing outside data such
as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry Political
Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current number
of target districts is 115. The process in the past
has been very complex and resistant to changes
during the campaign. The process has not been
effective according to Timmons and Anderson.
2. In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark
MacGregor indicated a strong desire to rely heavily
on the opinions of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional
Campaign Committee because they badly want a Republican
House.
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who are assigned the
task at 1701 of pulling together data on the House
and Senate races, argue strongly that it doesn't
make sense to rely entirely on these Hill sources.
They propose instead an internal committee which
would analyze all available sources, but would
be independent and flexible and be in a position to
make judgements on various races on the basis of what
is best for the President. Attached at Tab A are
several examples of how the polling data and field
reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information abailable to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
--- 2
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small
working committee at the White House to undertake
the basic analysis of House races. They recommend
that Bill Timmons be the senior mumber of this
committee; others included would be Ehrlichman,
Dent and Dick Cook. Timmons role would not be
a visible one. This group would rely heavily on
available polling data and on detailed field reports
from 1701, then analyze the individual races and make
recommendations on each race as to Presidential,
White House and campaign involvement.
APPROVE-
DISAPPROVE
DISCUSS
Attached at Tab B is a list of Congressional seats which,
if won by the COP, would result in a net gain. Anderson
and Timmons concur with Dent's list of 10 incumbents
that need defensive help.
TALKING PAPER FOR POLITICAL MEETING
RE: State Advisers; VP Advertising; General Attac k
1) Senior Advisers
Have the Senior Advisers for the
Key States prepared the necessary reports?
2) VP Advertising
What type of advertising, if any,
should be used for the Vice President?
3) General Attack
For the next seven weeks, should
there be just one major issue per week that all surrogates
are using or should the Colson 9:15 meeting continue to
program day-to-day responses to what McGovern is saying?
GS
9/18/72
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have arisen
while compiling data on Congressional races. You would
probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor the
recommended solution.
In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the Republican
Congressional Campaign Committee has attempted to formu-
late a list of key races through a process of checking with
Congressional leaders like Ford and Wilson, reviewing out-
side data such as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry
Political Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current list of target
districts is 115, The process in the past has been very
complex and resistant to changes during the campaign. The
process has not been effective.
In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark MacGregor
indicated a strong desire to rely heavily on the opinions
of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional Campaign Committee
because they badly want a Republican House. Last night
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who is assigned the task
at 1701 of pulling together data on the House and Senate
races, argued strongly that it didn't make sense to rely
entirely on these Hill sources. They proposed instead an
internal committee which would analyze all available
sources, but would be independent and flexible and be in
a position to make judgements on various races on the
basis of what is best for the President. Attached at
Tab A are several examples of how the polling data and
field reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information available to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
- 2 -
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small working
committee at 1701 to undertake the basic analysis of
House races. They recommend that Bill Timmons be the
senior member of this committee and be the liaison at
the White House. His role would not be a visible one.
This group would rely heavily on available polling
data and on detailed field reports from 1701, then
analyze the individual races and make recommendations
on each race as to Presidential, White House and cam-
paign involvement.
Approve
Disapprove
Discuss
Attached at Tab B is a listing of Congressional seats
which, if won by the GOP, would result in a net gain.
GS/jb
B A T A
Congressional
GOP
Democrat
Polling
Field
Campaign
Race
Candidate
Candidate
Results
Survey
Committee
Calif.
11th
Chase
Ryan
-25
1 in 20
target
Calif.
34th
Ratterree
Hanna
-25
no chance
target
Conn.
1st
Rittenband
Cotter
-
little
target
chance
Ind.
4th
Bloom
Roush
-28
poor
target
Kans.
2nd
McAtee
Roy
-35
poor
target
Mich.
18th
Huber
Montgomery
-15
poor
target
(Anti-Nixon
Rep.)
Wyom.
AL
Kidd
Roncalio
-13
-
target
:
B B T A
GOP HOUSE GAINS
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENTS
Arizona
4
Conlin
Grossman
even
California
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
good
California
38
Snider
Brown
even
California
42
Burgener
Lowe
even
Colorado
4
Johnson
Menson
even
Colorado
5
Armstrong
Johnson
good
Connecticut
5
Sarasin
Monagan
good
Florida
5
Runoff
Gunter
good
Florida
10
Bafalis
Runoff
good
Illinois
3
Hanrahan
Coman
good
Illinois
10
Young
Mikva
even
Illinois
11
Hoellen
Annunzio
even
Illinois
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
good
Indiana
11
Hudnutt
Jacobs
good
Kentucky
3
Kaelin
Mazzoli
even
Kentucky
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
good
Lousiana
3
Treen
Runoff
good
Maine
2
Cohen
Violette
even
Maryland
4
Holt
Fornos
even
Mississippi
2
Butler
Bowen
even
Mississippi
5
Lott
Stone
even
Missouri
6
Sloan
Litton.
good
New Jersey
13
Maraziti
Meyner
even
New York
3
Roncallo
Bales
good
New York
26
Gilman
Dow
even
N. Carolina
4
Hawke
Andrews
even
Oklahoma
1
Runoff
Jones
good
S. Carolina
1
Limehouse
Davis
even
S. Dakota
2
Adnot
McKeever
good
Tennessee
6
Beard
Anderson
even
Texas
5
Steelman
Cabel
even
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Wave III Campaign Surveys -
Teeter Briefings for White
House Staff
The trial heat results from Wave III surveys of key states
are expected from Bob Teeter on Saturday, September 16,
late in the afternoon. The full tables with all issue
information are also on schedule for Wednesday, September 20.
Only the National Survey, done by ORC, has been delayed.
The results should be available Monday, September 18, 1972.
After the Wave II data arrived you approved briefings for
certain White House Staff members pursuant to the attached
memorandum. Members of the Staff again are very anxious
to receive some of the Wave III Campaign Survey results.
Teeter could brief Buchanan, Dent, Ziegler, Colson, Moore,
Ehrlichman, Cole, Harper, and Morey next week subject to
the same conditions imposed on Waves I and II data -- i.e.
general politcal and issue information but no specific
trial heat data to any of the White House Staff.
Recommendation:
That Bob Teeter brief the same list of White House Staff
on the Wave III Campaign Survey results, subject to the
same conditions.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
GS/jb
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
July 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Wave II Campaign Surveys -
Teeter Briefings for
White House Staff
As mentioned in my July 17 memorandum, members of the
White House Staff are very anxious to receive some of
the Wave II Campaign Survey results. The current situa-
tion is that MacGregor clears requests for access to
polling information at 1701 and you must clear access
for the White House Staff.
The same procedure used after Wave I could be used for
White House Staff members now. That system is personal
briefings by Bob Teeter emphasizing the areas the indivi-
dual is interested in with no written material or specific
figures released.
The following staff members could be briefed by Teeter
this week:
Approve Disapprove
G7PJB7/25
Buchanan (McGovern image and issue position)
7/26 9:30
Dent (Situation in South and individual
candidates; i.e. Red Blount, position)
G-2p.7/25 Ziegler (General issue information)
G. Howard Colson (General political and issue
7/24
information)
Grmone 7/25
Moore (McGovern image)
Ehrlichman/Cole/Harper (All issue
7/24
information)
is
E-8/1
But no specific data to
trial heat any of These
- 2 -
You have already approved a Chapin/Parker briefing on Key
State/Issue information.
In addition, Malek called and asked me to check with you
on having Teeter brief his Ten Political Coordinators.
Although Malek only needs MacGregor's authority, he wanted
to check with you.
Yes, Teeter should brief Malek's Group.
No, Teeter should not brief Malek's Group.
Other.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
John Andrews - Ohio
Campaign Train
You asked John Andrews for the reaction to a campaign
train in Ohio. He said it would be "good, would attract
a hell of a lot of attention, and would be old fashioned
and nostalgic" in a positive way.
He suggested the same route and schedule used in 1968:
arrive Cincinnati the night before (RON) depart Cincin-
nati 8 a.m.; stop Springfield, stop Columbus at 12 noon
for State House Square 50-100,000 rally; stop in Marion,
stop Lima; stop Desher ("Bring Us Together"), stop Toledo
at 687 p.m.
The only question is whether AMTRAK can be persuaded to
clear tracks for the train and arrange for the appropriate
cars on such short notice. In 1952-68 the "B&O" Railroad
was contacted in July. Peter Flanigan and Bud Krogh have
not been contacted about AMTRAK.
Concerning your questions af Andrews about priority Presi-
dential visits in Ohio, he says:
1) Cleveland - the most media and biggest population;
2) Cincinnati or Columbus - largest, friendliest crowd,
3) Youngstown or Akron/Canton - the polls show the
President in an amazing situation among the blue collar
workers in this area;
4) Toledo.
GS/jb
andrews -
what our real in Olive
meght be to a train
camp
-like -68,
"good" along 'several
lines: recognize
mobility of jets
- spend whole day in
Ohio not too much
6 the
an cin night defere
in arena - 15-20,000
Still pol rolly
or City Hall Sg inten
8a train - you
nalles alots step
Dayton -10
satil
Columbles -12
US! springhidd
6-7 pm
marion St use sef -50-100,000
hima
Deshler- - BrUs
Toledo
hey out 9-10
To Oneel:
@ amerak has East-West
like
but no no/so
whe authority to use passenger
lines /mayle Speed restrie
- 'Oull ola 2 lot of attn"
-
"old fashioned;" nostalgie and
- hard to get good cars in68
now AMTRAK shld
be able to male ct look
go.
- note uptis will seream te
get on the train
white -68 - Chapter on
Train in corentiguil
Priouts 1 - febre P shld get.
Cleveland - most
avoid
media + biggest pop.
night apper
8p in 60 only
-il - 12 Bavor n or 5P% Duntan pullic
X2 full.
Sq - Deviland/Sheraton
2
Cin a ColunDres - largest
most friendly croud
Ustanars
(3) Youngstown on
Rn amazing Rolly set in polls.
Auntour
Oup rolly god
position among these leve collers
4 Toledo. CAW
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Peter Dailey's Positive
Advertising
Although the Nixon State Chairmen and Republican
State Chairmen saw the DFN ads this week, it has
been suggested that they be shown the positive
Nixon 5 minute and 60 second spots. Magruder has
approved and MacGregor is expected to approve
the request. Dailey feels he can easily turn-
off the project with MacGregor, but seeks your
comments.
Yes, show Nixon spots.
No, do not show spots.
Other
GS:car
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Connally 5 Minute Spot
Peter Dailey called to confirm that the Connally
5 minute "set" spot, as you saw it last night,
will be run next week, September 19 and 21. The
changes you suggested could not be made.
Dailey talked with George Christian who said
he was not particularly pleased with the spot
but that it was what Connally wanted.
GS:car
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Benham's Electoral
Vote Projections
Tom Benham sent the first of ORC's 1972 Electoral Vote
Forecasts. This projection is based on the system
described in Banham's August 10 memorandum. Basically,
Benham relies on all available state, regional, and
national polling data. Then, past voting behavior
back to 1948 but excluding 1964 is considered. Certain
states with historically similar backgrounds are com-
pared. Indiana, Oregon, Colorado and Ohio are fre-
quently paired by Benham.
The forecast will be very reliably redone when the
Wave III data arrives.
Benham plans on doing this Electoral Vote Forecast
weekly. It costs us nothing.
GS/jb
1972 ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST
Sept 12
ESTIMATED
ELECTORAL
NIXON
VOIE
PERCENTAGE
TOTALS
STATES
( 9) Alabama
( 7) Mississippi
( 6) Arizona
(5) Nebraska
66.1% and over
103
(17) Florida
(13) North Carolina
(12) Georgia
( 8) South Carolina
( 4) Idaho
(12) Virginia
(10) Louisiana
( 6) Arkansas
( 8) Oklahoma
( 7) Colorado
( 6) Oregon
(13) Indiana
(10) Tennessee
61.1% to 66.0%
112
( 8) Iowa
(26) Texas
( 7) Kansas
( 4) Utah
(4) Montana
( 3) Vermont
(4) New Hampshire
( 3) Wyoming
( 3) North Dakota
( 3) Alaska
(10) Minnesota
(45) California
(12) Missouri
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
56.1% to 61.0%
220
(3) Delaware
(17) New Jersey
(26) Illinois
(4) New Mexico
(9) Kentucky
(25) Ohio
( 4) Maine
(9) Washington
(10) Maryland
(11) Wisconsin
(21) Michigan
(41) New York
51.1% to 56.0%
74
(27) Pennsylvania
( 6) West Virginia
( 3) District of Columbia
( 4) Rhode Island
51% or less
29
( 4) Hawaii
( 4) South Dakota
(14) Massachusetts
538
Cpinion Benearch Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
Opinion Research Corporation
NORTH HARRISON STREET, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540
telephone: 609/924-5900
CHICAGO
LONDON
LCS ANGELES
NEW YORK
SAN FRANCISCO
WASHINGTON, D.C.
THOMAS W. BENHAM
President
August 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FROM: TOM BENJAM
SUBJECT:
ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTIONS
DURING THE 1972 CAMPAIGN
It is our plan, starting immediately after the Republican Convention,
to put together a projection of the electoral vote count for the fifty
states on about a weekly schedule, available data permitting.
There will be several main sources of inputs to help build the projec-
tion for each of the various states.
1. Various trial heat state polls as available to us from
published and unpublished sources
2. Projections of the standing of individual states in
instances where up-to-date trial heat data are not
available
A judgment as to the degree of reliability of the projection for each
state -- i.e., a "fairly safe" state versus a "close" state -- will
be made on the basis of how close the race is and how stable relation-
ships are.
The methodology for these projections fundamentally comes down tc
analysis of the historical statistical interrclationships of one state
to another, of one state to a group of states, and of one state to a
region of the country. In many instances these relationships are ex-
tremely stable. Thus, for example, if data are available on New York
State, a prediction with a high degree of reliability can be made about
the State of Connecticut.
-2-
It is also our plan to cross check the data in a variety of ways. We
will rely not only on various state trial heats but make predictions
about states where no up-to-date material may be available on the basis
of other statistical relationships.
We can make region-to-state evaluations based on regional data obtained
from the Callup Organization, as well as from ORC national studies that
are presently planned. Possibly other organizations may have published
regional data also. In addition to the region-to-state analysis, there
are groups of states that historically have been extremely closely linked
in their patterns. These latter groupings of states will be examined
both within regions and, where statistically supported, across regions.
These region-to-state and state-to-group projections will be given sub-
stantial weight when the state versus regional or state versus group
results have maintained a consistent pattern in election after election.
Where the relationships have been mixed or erratic, less weight will be
given to such relationships.
This electoral vote projection system, while relying on individual state
trial heats, will also provide a consistency check when the results from
an individual state poll may seem out of pattern or questionable.
Obviously, it is imperative for the success of this system to have a
steady flow of all state trial heat data that can be obtained from
whatever source. However, to properly evaluate such trial heats we
need to know the source, interviewing dates, how the poll was conducted
(i.e., telephone or personal interviews), and the number of interviews.
In both 1960 and 1968 our estimates proved to be quite accurate. We
have made refinements that should enable us to do even better this time.
TWB/jf
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys - Telephone
Conversation with John Davies
September 14
John Davies of the Gallup Organization returned my
telephone calls pending since August 22, late last
night. Since it may be our last contact with Gallup,
I covered every subject I could think of. The entire
transcript is attached. To summarize:
1) Davies claims no Gallup Survey has been con-
ducted since August 24-27. He expressly squelched
the rumor from the Leadership Meeting that the Presi-
dent has a 40 point lead which Gallup is checking,
2) The next Gallup survey will be conducted in
the field September 23-24. Data should be available
on September 28,
3) John Davies and George Gallup, Jr. have "been
under the gun from people like Jack Anderson and a lot
of others about pre-releasing data and the fact that
the White House has a telephone line into the polls".
The result is that the Gallup Organization will be
very "gunshy" about releasing data at least until the
election;
4) Davies claims Gallup has conducted no Presidential
popularity questions since June 23-26,
5) Gallup will conduct trial heat polls "probably
every week". Most of the releases will be "mainly ...
scorekeeping from now on",
- 2 -
6) The releases for the next 2-3 weeks will be on
various issues. Busing, defense, amnesty, abortion,
Vietnam, tax reform, crime, women's liberation, etc.,
have all been asked in the context of "would this parti-
cular position make you more or less likely to vote for
that candidate?" Davies says the first of these issue
releases will be out Sunday, September 24, 1972. All
the questions were done during the August 24-27 poll,
7) Davies was not apologetic about the 5 million
McGovern workers release;
8) Concerning the Gallup release which showed 30%
of the President's and McGovern's supporters "soft",
Gallup asked, "Are you pretty certain now how you will
vote or do you think you may change your mind between
now and Election Day?" This corresponds with the ORC
August 29-31 data (63-31-6). Dwvies claims Gallup no
longer has the LBJ-Goldwater data. He will check
Gallup's '60 and '68 data,
9) Davies would not give me the detailed demo-
graphics from the recent trial heats. Gallup will do
separate releases of the demographic shifts similar
to the youth release recently. He mentioned political
affiliation and union as two that should be done.
Davies claims the Catholic demographic data has been
too volatile. Gallup had planned a story but scrapped
it.
10) John Davies has moved into the government
polling area of the Gallup Organization. I indicated
my personal interest in government surveys and told
him we should discuss his new pursuit of government
business.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Connally 5-Minute Spot
Moore, Carruthers, Goode, Scali, and Chapin reviewed
the two 5-minute Connally spots. Their comments on
the first, 5-minute address from a set, are:
Chapin - excellent, a plus, the 5 President's theme
is very powerful, it does what it was de-
signed for - to hold the Democrats currently
supporting us, it is "Connally", though
not the usual press conference Connally,
the setting is terrible, Connally should be
beanding in an office not sitting in
"feminine", women's bedroom set.
Moore - don't like it at all, ad agency words;
there is nothing personal and earthy;
should be extemporaneous not reading.
Carruthers - too studied, he's squinting, looking
above the lens; text is good but
Connally is better in off-the-cuff,
more spontaneous posture; use a press
conference, he should be introduced.
Goode - not "John Connally"; a waste of time, forced
inflection; terrible "feminine" set.
Scali - it is a powerful, persuasive statement, should
be done in another setting; the formal address
mode adds impact; he is presenting formally the
case for Democrats to support the President, the
sober, formal, serious sum-up speech is good;
it should begin with the "I am a Democrat".
- 2 -
All thought the press conference 5-minute spot was
out of date and so poorly cut as to be unusable.
Buchanan will review the spot in the next 1/2 hour.
Recommendation:
That you call Connally and suggest that the spot be
edited to begin with "I am a Democrat" which would
follow an announcer's introduction and eliminate much
of the feminine set.
GS/jb