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This file contains: From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign advertising. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for Connally's television spots. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press conference involving MacGregor and Bob Dole, an idea opposed by many White House figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Davies breaking down voting trends among key demographics in the latest Gallup Poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder, MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations for campaign advertising. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political advice and reactions to advertisements provided by John Davies, as well as information on the Gallup organization. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to run television spots involving Tom Kuchel in California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television spots based on a Connally speech. Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's advice that the November Group purchase radio spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on same subject attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the 1972 campaign. List of close state and Senate races attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/13/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs' Congressional district. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: endorsement letters for California and New York Republican candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: television plans of the November Group and the Democratic Party. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman and Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to a documentary on RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Teeter on Delaware, Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen ratings for a documentary on RN compared to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic televised campaign material. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972

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WHSF: Contested, 15-8
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WHSF: Contested, 15-8
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This file contains: From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign advertising. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for Connally's television spots. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press conference involving MacGregor and Bob Dole, an idea opposed by many White House figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Davies breaking down voting trends among key demographics in the latest Gallup Poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder, MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations for campaign advertising. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political advice and reactions to advertisements provided by John Davies, as well as information on the Gallup organization. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to run television spots involving Tom Kuchel in California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television spots based on a Connally speech. Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's advice that the November Group purchase radio spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on same subject attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the 1972 campaign. List of close state and Senate races attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/13/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs' Congressional district. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: endorsement letters for California and New York Republican candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: television plans of the November Group and the Democratic Party. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman and Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to a documentary on RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Teeter on Delaware, Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen ratings for a documentary on RN compared to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic televised campaign material. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign advertising. 1 pg. 15 8 10/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for Connally's television spots. 1 pg. 15 8 10/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg. 15 8 10/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press conference involving MacGregor and Bob Dole, an idea opposed by many White House figures. 1 pg. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 1 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/23/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. 15 8 12/23/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Davies breaking down voting trends among key demographics in the latest Gallup Poll. 2 pgs. 15 8 10/23/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder, MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations for campaign advertising. 2 pgs. 15 8 10/21/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political advice and reactions to advertisements provided by John Davies, as well as information on the Gallup organization. 2 pgs. 15 8 10/21/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to run television spots involving Tom Kuchel in California. 1 pg. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 2 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/20/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg. 15 8 10/19/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television spots based on a Connally speech. Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg. 15 8 10/19/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's advice that the November Group purchase radio spots. 2 pgs. 15 8 10/18/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on same subject attached. 4 pgs. 15 8 10/13/1972 Campaign Memo From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the 1972 campaign. List of close state and Senate races attached. 7 pgs. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 3 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/18/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs' Congressional district. 1 pg. 15 8 10/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. 15 8 10/18/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: endorsement letters for California and New York Republican candidates. 1 pg. 15 8 10/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs. 15 8 10/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 4 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg. 15 8 10/16/1972 Campaign Memo Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: television plans of the November Group and the Democratic Party. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman and Higby. 1 pg. 15 8 10/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to a documentary on RN. 1 pg. 15 8 10/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. 15 8 10/14/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Teeter on Delaware, Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 2 pgs. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 5 of 6 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 15 8 10/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen ratings for a documentary on RN compared to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg. 15 8 10/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic televised campaign material. 1 pg. Friday, February 11, 2011 Page 6 of 6 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Advertising According to Magruder, Clark MacGregor agreed this morning to run the DFN attack ads - Turnaround and Welfare - 60-second spots beginning tomorrow night. Connally gave Magruder a carte blanche on shifting the spots. Magruder is working out the financial transfers with Stans. The 5-minute spots will not be all Conmally. MacGregor is reviewing the schedule and will decide later on the percentage of Connally and CRP positive ads. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Connally Overnight Ratings The New York Overnight rating for the Connally 1/2 hour last night was 1.9. This compares with Friday's rating of 30.5. The Los Angeles Overnight was 4.7. This compares with 21.0 on Friday. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Sindlinger Poll Dick Howard called with the Sindlinger data: RN McG Un S-Oct 20-23, '72 61.2 23.5 15.3 The drop from the previous result RN McG Un S-Oct 17-19, '72 60.6 21.5 17.9 is less than 28. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: MacGregor/Dole Press Conference Clark MacGregor and Bob Dole are scheduled to have a Press Conference tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. to discuss the Get-Out-the-Vote program with Fred Malek. All in the 9:15 meeting, including Colson, Abrahams, Clawsen, Chapin, were opposed because the press will focus the Press Conference on Watergate, etc. Magruder and Abrahams cannot convince MacGregor that this Press Conference is a bad idea. An alternative to the MacGregor/Dole Press Conference would be a Malek Press Conference since he could better keep the focus on the Get-Out-the-Vote. You may want to cover this with MacGregor tomorrow at 8:15. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 23, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: National Telephone Survey #4 Polling Dates: Oct 20-22, '72 Respondents: Total - 1,059 Registered - 917 The package includes all the requested materials from the fourth National Telephone Survey: 1) Tab A is the receiving memorandum, 2) Tab B is Tom Benham's analysis of the poll, 3) Tab C is the detailed demographics including the crossbreaks tabbed on the second page of each question; 4) Tab D is the complete questionnaire; and 5) Tab E is the demographic comparison of Presidential popularity, handling of Vietnam, and the trial heats. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 23, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies tonight developed several interesting items. To summarize: 1) The next Gallup Trial Heat Release will appear Thursday, October 26. The final figures are 59-36-5, based on October 13-18 polling dates. The last Gallup poll was 60-34-6 based on September 29-October 9 polling dates; 2) Davies confirmed that the only other trial heat poll before the election will be conducted November 2-4 for release on November 6 # 3) The President's support among Democrate has moved from 32% to 33%, a statistically insignificant change except that it indicates the President's support among Democrats has not begun to drop, 4) Manual Workers are not any longer supporting the President as they were, Early in the campaign the President led 68-32. Now the lead is down to 49-45. Davies speculates that the labor leaders are beginning to increase the pressure and that the best issues to hold manual workers to the President are law and order, amnesty, and Vietnams 5) Although Gallup has done no recent polling on the Vietnam settlement rumors, a poll conducted in September indicated that the people do not expect an end to the war before the end of the year, - 2 - 6) Davies warns against a settlement before the election because the public regards last minute foreign policy decisions as so political as to work against the President. Davies cites the Gallup post-1968 election survey which showed that the public objected to LBJ's bombing halt 4 days before the election. The effect of the public's objection did not appear in four days and Humphrey benefiteed. Davies recommends that if a settlement is readied that it be explained as the culmination of four years of struggle, well- documented; 7) Although an underdog candidate usually begins closing the gap in the last two weeks, it is Gallup's opinion that McGovern cannot now close a gap this wide, and 9) Davies is prepared to bet the President will win 58-42. A transcript is attached. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 23, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Campaign Advertising CRP/DFN Spot Advertising The scheduled Budget Meeting to review advertising recom- mendations and expenditures was cancelled. I advised Magruder and Dailey of your "view" that all positive CRP 60-second ads on Older Americans, Passport, Record, etc., scheduled for the Week of October 23, should be replaced with the DFN attack ads - Turnaround and Welfare - and that the 5-minute spots should be the Connally 5 minutes'. Clark MacGregor decided that in spite of your "view" that the CRP positive 60's should be run this week and the DFN attack spots should be run next week. He agreed that the Connally 5-minute spots should be run. Magruder and Dailey believe the MacGregor decision implements the worst of the two arguments. Dailey's theory is that McGovern has been driven down to 34 points by three months of attack, He doubts he can be driven lower by further attack. Instead, Dailey argues that the positive material should be run to hold the President's 60% by giving Democrats and Independents as many positive reasons for continuing to support the President as possible. Dailey's argument is a little more sophisticated than whether voters are voting for the President or against McGovern. Dailey also argues that running the positive material counters the effect of the Watergate attack from McGovern by indicating to the public that any President involved in the great issues and trips for peace couldn't be involved in the political empionage. - 2 - Magruder and Dailey now recommend running the DFN 60-second attack ads - Turnaround and Welfare - this week and then running the CRP positive ads next week. All agree that the Connally 5's should be run through to November 7. Dailey could replace all the network CRP 60's from Tuesday, October 24 with the DFN attack ads if a decision were reached quickly. Before you decide, you should review the new McGovern attack spots. One quotes Baldwin of Watergate fame saying that Bill Timmons received transcripts of taped telephone conversations. Also, you indicated you wanted to view the three Connally 5's cut from the 30-minute spot. The President meets with Rogers and Kissinger Tuesday at 10 a.m., if you want to view these materials and make the decision regarding advertising for the last two weeks of the campaign. Set viewing at 10 a.m. Set viewing at 11:30 (President meeting with Dr. Kraemer). No need for Haldeman to view materials, Let MacGregor's decision stand. Other. Connally 1/2 Hour MacGregor decided not to run the Connally 1/2 hour on Thursday. Instead, the Connally 5 will be run Thursday between 9:55 and 10 p.m. The Connally 5 is also scheduled on Saturday at 10:55- 11 p.m. on all three networks. Local Advertising MacGregor decided to cancel all local TV advertising except for California and Michigan. In California and Michigan, 1/3 of the available spots will be the DFN attack ad Turnaround. The other 2/3 in Michigan will be the CRP Busing spot. The 2/3 in California will be the 68esecond Record. GS/jb October 21, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies today developed several interesting items. To summarize: 1) The next Gallup trial heat release is scheduled for Thursday, OCtober 26. The polling dates were Oct 14-15. A standard 1500 sample was used and the results will be within one or two points of 60-34-6, the figures released on October 15 based on the Sep 29- Oct 0 Gallup Poll; 2) The next Gallup trial heat field survey is scheduled to be conducted November 2, 3 and 4. The results are scheduled to be re- ported November 6, the Monday before the election. (Bob Teeter has obtained con- flicting information - that Gallup is in the field this weekend - Oct 21-22 and will have results on Tuesday, Oct. 24). 3) There will be more Gallup issue releases than originally planned. Because Gallup is using the regular 1500 sample there will not be the demo- graphic releases based on the Oct 14-15 survey. Instead, Gallup will consolidate three surveys and release information on particular ethnic groups, such as Irish, Italian, Middle Europeans, etc. 4) Dr. Gallup Sr's theory is that the issue questions - which political party is better able to handle peace and prosperity - kead the trail heat figures. This shoed Dr. Gallup in 1968 that Humphrey was moving up. However, in 1972 the only move- ment is in our favor; -2- 5) Davies believes the Connally 80 minute was "one of the most devastating political shows that I have seen in a long time.' He thinks that it covered all bases and that we do not need to do anything on the economy. The only change Davies would suggest is re-emphasize that Connally is a Democrat at the end. This will help hold the 32% Democrats who have left McGovern for the President. Many Democrats are under pressure to return to the fold, but as long as they believe that they have company they will stay with the President. 6) Davies thinks the Connally speech should be run in segments. He thinks we should avoid the sarcasm of the Democrats for Nixon attack spots because it will look like the President is nit- picking and kicking the guy when he is down. 7) He could not say whether the President was helding his position with Catholics because the samples are too small to permit statistically significant comparisens. 8) He believes the Frank Rizzo contact is excellent because of theppositive effect on Italians everywhere. However, he thinks the Revenue Sharing Signing Ceremony was a dud; 9) Davies believes the President should spend more time in controlled TV situations to prevent the news shows from using uncomplimentary material from stump events. He cites the TV news film of the President jerking Agnew around to get him on camera. 10) Althoug he recoggizes the political fact that it would be wrong to debate McGovern, Davies suggests that it be considered because the President would cream McGovern and the people want debates. A transcript of the conversation is attached. GS:car October 21, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Kuchel Radio and T.V. Spots in California Maury STans received information from California people that radio and T.V. ads by former Senator Tom Kuchel would be effective among the liberal element in California. Bob Finch does not think Kuchel would be effective. Kuchel doesn't mean much anymore in California. Herb Klein thinks radio and T.V. spots by Kuchel would be effective in Northern California and the San Joaquin Valley. Fred Malek thinks Huchel would have a positive effect. However, he does not think the Kuchel spots would be worth sending new money into California to pay for them in light of the strict budget situation. Malek does not think it would be worth shifting some of the money already allocated to California to the Kuchel spots. Malek says his view would be supported by Nofziger, who was not personally contacted. RECOMMENDATION: That Kuchel radio and TV spots not be prepared and run in California to appeal to the liberal element. AGREE DISAGREE COMMENT I will advise Stans of your decision. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 20, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Teeter Briefing for Chapin and Parker After the CRP Waves I, II, and III, Bob Teeter has orally briefed Chapin and Parker and prepared written materials to assist in scheduling. Teeter has not discussed the Rolling Wave materials with Chapin and Parker. The guide- lines would be the same as with previous briefings @ no discussion of the specific trial heat results. Recommendation: That Teeter brief Chapin and Parker regarding the Bolling Wave polls' effect on scheduling with no discussion of specific trial heat results. Approve Disapprove Comments GS/jb October 19, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR : H.R. HALDEMAN FROM : GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT I Connally 5 Minute Spots The three 5 minute spots that Bill Carruthers made from the 30 minute Connally speech are available for your review. MacGregor needs the three spots tape for an hour at 4 P. p.m. today to show to some prominent Dems. One of the three spots is scheduled to go on network TV on Oct. 28, H to see Connally spots today H to, see Connally spots over week-end Other GS:pm ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 19, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Radio Buys Chapin indicated that the November Group (Joanou) should buy two 15-minute radio segments on Saturday, October 21 at 12 noon and Sunday, October 22 at 10 a.m. Saturday at 12:02-40, CBS, NBC, and Mutual can clear most of their stations at a total cost of 18,000. This is almost identical with the October 7 buy: Buy Saturday 12:06:40 on CBS, NBC, Mutual. Other. Sunday at 10 a.m. only CBS will cèear stations. NBC and Mutual will not pre-empt their religious programming. However, at 12:15 CBS and NBC will clear their stations. Mutual could run a delay at 12:35. Proceed with CBS 10 a.m. buy. P Proceed with CBS and NBC at 12:15 and Mutual at 12:35. Other. - 2 - Two questions remain: whether the speeches will be live and from Camp David. Saturday and Sunday speeches live from Camp David. Other. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 18, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Key States and Senate Races Clark MacGregor has approved a list of Key States which includes the crucial areas for the President as well as local candidates. The document attached at TAB A divides the President's Key States into four levels indicating the amount of effort. Presidential Race I = California, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and West Virginia II = Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania III = Maryland, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin IV = Minnesota Local Races The attached document uses a key to describe the situation in states where effort on behalf of local candidates is being directed: NP = No effort necessary for the President = incumbent ( ) = House race * - Maximum support NG = Net gain in House or Senate RO - Republican Open - 2 - For example, the situation in Illinois is: number II level of activity for the President; Percy is the incombent Senator; Madigan is the Republican House candidate in the 21st trying to keep a Republican seat, Young is the Republican candidate who would be a net gain if he won the 10th seat. Senate Races The updated chart of the Senate Seats, with all available polling data and comments, is attached at Tab B. MacGregor will receive a copy. You may want to discuss Key States and the Senate Races at tomorrow's Political Meeting. GS/jb I = all out Per P III - mo - 3rddun 3 np = not Per P. B = ineum I w/o C )= Senate role Blount = max support nG = net gain RO = Republican Open THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: TO: FROM: GORDON STRACHAN THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 13, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY We need to do a revised list of the states that we need to worry about or those that are close for Chapin. Chapin needs this for redoing the surrogate schedules. Also, Bob should have the latest information available as to what our priority states really are. In putting together the list we should look at those states that are close. For example Texas where we are something like 40 points ahead should not be included, although it would certainly be a key state. Alabama NP Blount * (Dickinson - 2nd) Montgomery and S. E. Corner Alaska NONE Arizona NONE Arkansas NONE I California * (Mailliard - 6th) San Francisco * (Snider - 38th) NG San Bernardino - Riverside Colorado NP * (Johnson - 4th) NG Fort Collins and N. W. Corner (Armstrong - 5th) NG Denver, Aurora (McKevitt - 1st) Denver Connecticut NP * (Sarasin - 5th) NG Waterbury, Wallingford, Meriden (Rittenband - 1st) NG Hartford Delaware NP Boggs Florida NONE Georgia NP *Thompson * (Cook - 5th) RO Atlanta hawaii NONE Idaho NP *McClure Page Two II Illinois Percy (Madigan - 21st) RO Decatur, Champaign, Bloomington (Young - 10th) NG Cook County (Hoellen - 11th) NG Cook County Indiana NP * (Dennis - 10th) Muncie and Richmond (Hudnut - 11th) NG Kokomo and Marion ? (Landgrebe - 2nd) Lafayette and North (not Gary or S. Bend) ? (Hillis - 5th) North of Indianapolis Iowa NP * (Schwengel - 1st) Iowa City, Burlington, Davenport * (Kyl - 4th) Des Moines Kansas NONE Kentucky NP *Nunn * (Jackson - 6th) NG Frankfort, Lexington Louisiana NONE Maine NP * (Cohen - 2nd) NG Bangor, Lewiston and North III Maryland (Holt - 4th) NG Annapolis I Massachusetts ? (Cronin - 5th) RO Middlesex County - Lowell ? * (Weeks - 12th) RO Weymouth - Plymouth County * (Linsky- 4th) NG Newton, Brookline, Framingham Page Three I Michigan Griffen * (Esch - 2nd) Ann Arbor and South IV Minnesota Hansen * (Zwach - 6th) St. Cloud and S. W. Corner * (Haatan - 7th) NG Moorhead and N. W. Corner Mississippi NP (Butler - 2nd) NG Columbus to Greenville (Cochran - 4th) NG Vicksburg and South III Missouri * (Sloan - 6th) NG St. Joseph Montana NP Hibbard Nebraska NONE Nevada NP (Towell - ALL) NG at large New Hampshire NP Powell I New Jersey * (Maraziti - 13th) NG Phillipsburg, Boonton (Dowd - 3rd) NG Long Branch, Monmouth New Mexico NP *Domenici Page Four I New York * (Gilman - 26th) NG Newburg * (Koldin - 32nd) NG Syracuse (Peyser - 23rd) Bronx and Southern Westchester (Vergari - 24th) NG White Plains and Yonkers North Carolina NP *Helms * (Martin - 9th) RO Charlotte * (Hawke - 4th) NG Raleigh-Durham North Dakota NONE II Ohio Oklahoma NP *Bartlett *(Hewgley - 1st) RO Tulsa III Oregon II Pennsylvania Rhode Island NP *Chaffee South Carolina NP (Limehouse - 1st) NG Charleston South Dakota NP *Hirsch * (Abdnor - 2nd) NG Western two thirds (Vickerman - 1st) NG Eastern Third Page Five Tennessee NP * (Beard - 6th) NG Clarksville - Columbia Texas NP *Tower * (Price - 13th) Amarillo, Wichita Falls (Steelman - 5th) NG Dallas Utah NONE Vermont NONE Virginia NP SCOTT III Washington (Bledsoe - 4th) NG Yakima and North I West Virginia III Wisconsin (Thomson - 3rd) La Crosse, Eau Claire (Froelich - 8th) RO Green Bay and North Wyoming NP (Kidd - ALL) NG at large SENATE SEATS STATE CANDIDATES POLLS COMMENTS INCUMBENTS Michigan Griffin (R) 10/16 - 47-37-2-14 Lead still very soft, Detroit area Kelley (D). 9/21 - 42-36-22 still key, needs P visit. Texas Tower (R) 10/3 - 53-30-17 Tower pulling away as organization Sanders (D) 9/12 - 46-41-13 improves -- needs another showing of P interest. Still a lingering anti- Tower sentiment among voters. Delaware Boggs (R) 8/15 - 63-18-19 Biden very attractive and running Biden (D) 9/15 - 41-29-31 well. Boggs badly in need of P 10/15 - 46-40-14 assist. TV & radio tapes will help. REPUBLICAN SEATS Kentucky Nunn (R) 10/3 - 53-30-17 Field reports organization needs pick- Huddleston (D) 9/12 - 46-41-13 up. Nunn thinks campaign going well. Idaho McClure (R) 10/9 - 47-30-23 Field reports encouraging. Davis (D) South Hirsch (R) 8/1 - 38-44-18 Needs $ and help in western part of Dakota Abourezk (D) 10/6 - 39-44-17 state. Also Butz & Mrs. N. wanted. NON-INCUMBENTS New Mexico Domenici (R) 39-24-37 Organization closely tied into P's. Daniels (D) Needs $ - looks good. Rhode Chaffee (R) 9/22 - 49-34-17 Needs Mrs. N. visit, organization Island Pell (D) 10/12 - Chaffee +8 now working w/P's. Georgia Thompson (R) No good data Field reports close race, running poor Nunn (D) campaign. P's visit a real boost. Oklahoma Bartlett (R) Due 10/20 Campaign improving, still needs Edmondson (D) identity w/P. POSSIBLE North Helms (R) No good data Running poor campaign -- too conserva- Carolina Galifianakis (D) tive, organization now improving w/ tie-in to P. Considered close enough to win. Alabama Blount (R) 28-47-2-23 Well organized -- P coattails will be Sparkman (D) strong w/straight ticket. Needs more P involvement -- TV tapes. Montana Hibbard (R) No good data Needs $ but now very doubtful and our Metcalf (D) resources should not be wasted here. Louisiana Toledano (R) No good data 3-way race -- needs $ and organiza- LONG SHOT Johnston (D) tional help. McKeithen (I) Virginia Scott (R) No good data Poor candidate, totally dependent on Spong (D) P landslidè. New Powell (R) 10/16 - 30-58-15 Very conservative candidate, but Hampshire McIntrye (D) trying to tie race in w/P's. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 18, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Boggs' District There is no Republican candidate for Boggs' district, according to Dent. In the redistricting Boggs' district was made so safe that David Treen, who had tried to defeat Boggs previously, decided to seek the Congressional seat in the adjoining district. There will be a special election held for Boggs' seat. This would probably be held in February or March. GS/jb H THE WHITE HOUSE FU WASHINGTON 10/18 October 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIG Y L Find out if we have a candidate in Boggs' district and what his calibre is and get a report in to Haldeman by close of business Wednesday. Dent- - no Rep and; 10/17 Redis - Treen running in next District Checking whether get and in - Hold special elee but wouldn't behild until Feb/mer - no way we can run a manin ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 18, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: New York and California Legislature Endorsements The New York and California GOP and CRP organizations have asked for endorsement letters for some of their state legislature candidates. The general rule, enforced by Dent and Price, is that blanket letters of endorsement do not go out to unselected local office holders. In New York 10 of the requested 108 have been done by special appeal. The balance should receive a standard endorsement letter according to Harry Dent, the New York GOP, the New York CRP, and the CRP Regional Director. In California, Nofziger and the CRP Regional Director have asked for endorsement letters for the 18 "Cal Plan" candidates. According to Nofziger on October 17, Reagan is actively pushing for these letters. Because there are only 19 days left, telegrams would be better than letters. Nightletters cost $3.20 each, one- third that of a telegram. Alternative language for the endorsements appears in the attached. One is a full, warm endorsement; the other is a "Best Wishes" message. Recommendation: That the "Best Wishes" nightletter be sent to the New York and California state legislature candidates. Approve Disapprove Comments GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys - John Davies Discussion In a long conversation with John Davies of Gallup he made the following points: 1) There is some indication the President's vote among Youth is softening, but the sample is too small for a public release on that point; 2) Gallup will continue releasing information during the campaign regarding likelihood of voting which indicates the President does much better than McGovern among those voters who will vote, 3) Davies and those at the New York Times using the Yankelovich survey are in contact regarding comparative results; 4) Dr. Gallup, Sr. distrusts telephone polling. In 1968 Davies directed a political polling operation to run simultaneously with the field polls. Davies says, "I would look extremely carefully at what the telephone polls show". The result was that telephone polling showed the President 5% above the field poll results; 5) Davies disregards Sindlinger entirely, indicating that the Sindlinger attempt to pick up subjective trends is a lot of crap. Whether the comments are coming from Nixon or McGovern supporters and whether the vote is influenced is crucial and Sindlinger doesn't show this, 6) Although the "corruption" charge will "make some difference", the public believes "all politicians are corrupt", so it doesn't have much effect, - 2 - 7) Dr. Gallup, Sr. believes that the questions on handling peace and prosperity lead trial heat changes. In 1968, the Democrats began improving in both of these categories before Humphrey began moving up in the trial heats, 3) In 1972 the only dhift on handling peace and prosperity has been "away from the Democrats ... the Republicans for the first time have a pretty substantial lead on both of those questions of keeping the country out of a major war and keeping the pursestrangs in sensible shape". 9) Davies believes it cannot be determined this early whether it would be helpful for a heavy or a light turnout. The question is whether the Democrats who now support the President might just sit out the election rather than vote for the President or McGovern, 10) The President's economic policies and McGovern's screwball plans are holding the Democrats for the President. The main issue for the President's Democrats is not national defense. For every Democrat Gallup interviewed who opposed busing or amnesty, there were 2 or 3 Democrats who couldn't stand the welfare plan and giveaway programs; 11) National defense is not a burning issue any more; and 12) In Davies' opinion, McGovern has to convince the people that the war is still going on at full steam in order to win. He also has to do something with his position and perception on the economy. GS/jb October 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: California Field Poll Nofziger called late last night with the results of the Field Poll, to be released soon in California: RN McG Others Un Sep 29-Oct 6 50 36 2 12 GS:car ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: TV Buys Peter Dailey had the answers this afternoon to the questions you asked on the attached memorandum, To summarize: Democrats: Friday, October 20 - 10:30-11:00 p.m.- ABC McGovern on Economics Wednesday, October 25 - 7:30-8:00 p.m. - ABC McGovern on Unknown Subject Monday, November 6 - 8:30-9:00 p.m. - ABC Subject Unknown Connally's 1/2 hour: Friday, October 20 - 7:30-8:00 p.m. - NBC, ABC, and 34 CBS local TV markets Monday, October 23 - Negotiating; nontime or network set GS/jb MS THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL Answer please today October 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN S SUBJECT: TV Buys Joanou reports that the Democrats have cleared 10:30- whatevers 11:00 p.m. on Friday, October 20 for McGovern's speech on Economics. The November Group is buying Friday, October 20 at 7:30 p.m. for the Connally 1/2 hour, Whatchout monday The Democrats have also cleared October 25, 7:30-8:00 p.m., for a McGovern speech. Subject and network are not yet known. they Unit clear it upon network ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Reaction to the President's Documentary Peter Dailey received three calls with comments on the documentary that ran on Saturday, October 14. Bart Cummings of Compton Advertising thought the film was excellent. His view was confirmed by Tom Adams of Campbell. John Gavin, President of the Screen Actors Guild, called Dailey and told him that the vignettes on the President were particularly effective. Also, Gavin said that the use of "the President" several times with infrequent use of "Nixon" was effective. GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: National Telephone Survey #3 Polling Dates: Oct 13-15, '72 Respondents: Total - 1,056 Registered - 922 This package includes the requested materials from the third National Telephone Survey: 1) Tab A is the receiving memorandum, 2) Tab B is Tom Benham's analysis of the poll, 3) Tab C is the detailed demographics including the crossbreaks tabbed on the second page of each question; 4) Tab D is the complete questionnaire. The demographic comparison of Presidential popularity, handling of Vietnam, and the trial heats have just been computed and will follow as soon as possible. GS/jb October 14, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Teeter Polling Information Bob Teeter called with polling information from several states: Michigan The Detroit News will release their MOR poll on October 15: +RN McG Schmitz Un MOR - Oct 8-11 50 37 1 12 ORC - Spt25-Oct5 63 26 11 MOR - Spt17-21 52 37 11 MOR - Spt 1 54 38 8 A review of previous Michigan elections shows that the Democratic candidate will pick-up 6-8 points from the undecided. Massachusetts Teeter learned that Becker will release a poll tomorrow showing the President with a 4 point lead in Massachusetts. Teeter does not have any more information. Minnesota MacGregor told Teeter that tomorrow Minnesota's poll will show the President with a 22 point lead. No more information is available. - 2 - Delaware MOR just did a survey which shows Senator Boggs in trouble in Delaware. The final figures will be available late tonight. The President is doing well in Delaware. Rhode Isladd A Becker Poll conducted last weekend whows Chafeee with an 8 point lead. No other figures are available. Newspaper polls have shown Chaffee with an 8-12 point lead. Chaffee is anxious to have Mrs. Nixon visit the state. GS:car ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: N.Y. and L.A. Nielsen Overnights President's Documentary N.Y. 10/5 9.6 L.A. 8.6 McGovern's Speech N.Y. 5.9 7.7 L.A. 9.5 GS/jb ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL October 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: TV Buys Joanou reports that the Democrats have cleared 10:30- 11:00 p.m. on Friday, October 20 for McGovern's speech on Economics. The November Group is buying Friday, October 20 at 7:30 p.m. for the Connally 1/2 hour. The Democrats have also cleared October 25, 7:30-8:00 p.m., for a McGovern speech. Subject and network are not yet known. GS/jb