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This file contains:
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign advertising. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for Connally's television spots. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press conference involving MacGregor and Bob Dole, an idea opposed by many White House figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Davies breaking down voting trends among key demographics in the latest Gallup Poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder, MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations for campaign advertising. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political advice and reactions to advertisements provided by John Davies, as well as information on the Gallup organization. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to run television spots involving Tom Kuchel in California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television spots based on a Connally speech. Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's advice that the November Group purchase radio spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on same subject attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the 1972 campaign. List of close state and Senate races attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs' Congressional district. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: endorsement letters for California and New York Republican candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: television plans of the November Group and the Democratic Party. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman and Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to a documentary on RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Teeter on Delaware, Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen ratings for a documentary on RN compared to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic televised campaign material. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
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26145661
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WHSF: Contested, 15-8
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doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
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Source metadata
id
26145661
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 15-8
description
This file contains:
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign advertising. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for Connally's television spots. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press conference involving MacGregor and Bob Dole, an idea opposed by many White House figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Davies breaking down voting trends among key demographics in the latest Gallup Poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder, MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations for campaign advertising. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political advice and reactions to advertisements provided by John Davies, as well as information on the Gallup organization. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to run television spots involving Tom Kuchel in California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television spots based on a Connally speech. Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's advice that the November Group purchase radio spots. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on same subject attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the 1972 campaign. List of close state and Senate races attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs' Congressional district. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: endorsement letters for California and New York Republican candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman RE: television plans of the November Group and the Democratic Party. Handwritten notes on original added by Haldeman and Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to a documentary on RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Teeter on Delaware, Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and Rhode Island. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen ratings for a documentary on RN compared to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White House and Democratic televised campaign material. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: campaign
advertising. 1 pg.
15
8
10/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: ratings for
Connally's television spots. 1 pg.
15
8
10/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results
of a Sindlinger Poll. 1 pg.
15
8
10/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a press
conference involving MacGregor and Bob
Dole, an idea opposed by many White House
figures. 1 pg.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 1 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/23/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results
of the latest National Telephone Survey. 1 pg.
15
8
12/23/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information
on Davies breaking down voting trends
among key demographics in the latest Gallup
Poll. 2 pgs.
15
8
10/23/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Magruder,
MacGregor, and Dailey's recommendations
for campaign advertising. 2 pgs.
15
8
10/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political
advice and reactions to advertisements
provided by John Davies, as well as
information on the Gallup organization. 2
pgs.
15
8
10/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or
not to run television spots involving Tom
Kuchel in California. 1 pg.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 2 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: whether or
not to have Teeter brief Chapin and Parker
on the Rolling Wave polls. 1 pg.
15
8
10/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: television
spots based on a Connally speech.
Handwritten edits added by unknown. 1 pg.
15
8
10/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's
advice that the November Group purchase
radio spots. 2 pgs.
15
8
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: state and
Senate races in 1972. Handwritten notes on
same subject attached. 4 pgs.
15
8
10/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Higby to Strachan RE: key states in the
1972 campaign. List of close state and
Senate races attached. 7 pgs.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 3 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Boggs'
Congressional district. 1 pg.
15
8
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Higby to Strachan RE: Boggs' district.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg.
15
8
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE:
endorsement letters for California and New
York Republican candidates. 1 pg.
15
8
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: John
Davies' election season observations. 2 pgs.
15
8
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nofziger's
report on a California Field Poll. 1 pg.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 4 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White
House and Democratic television ads. 1 pg.
15
8
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
Copy of a memo from Strachan to Haldeman
RE: television plans of the November Group
and the Democratic Party. Handwritten
notes on original added by Haldeman and
Higby. 1 pg.
15
8
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reactions to
a documentary on RN. 1 pg.
15
8
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results
of the third National Telephone Survey. 1 pg.
15
8
10/14/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling
information from Teeter on Delaware,
Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, and
Rhode Island. 2 pgs.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 5 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
15
8
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Nielsen
ratings for a documentary on RN compared
to those for McGovern's speech. 1 pg.
15
8
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: White
House and Democratic televised campaign
material. 1 pg.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Page 6 of 6
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Advertising
According to Magruder, Clark MacGregor agreed this
morning to run the DFN attack ads - Turnaround and
Welfare - 60-second spots beginning tomorrow night.
Connally gave Magruder a carte blanche on shifting
the spots. Magruder is working out the financial
transfers with Stans.
The 5-minute spots will not be all Conmally. MacGregor
is reviewing the schedule and will decide later on the
percentage of Connally and CRP positive ads.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Connally Overnight Ratings
The New York Overnight rating for the Connally 1/2 hour
last night was 1.9. This compares with Friday's rating
of 30.5.
The Los Angeles Overnight was 4.7. This compares with
21.0 on Friday.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Sindlinger Poll
Dick Howard called with the Sindlinger data:
RN
McG
Un
S-Oct 20-23, '72
61.2
23.5
15.3
The drop from the previous result
RN
McG
Un
S-Oct 17-19, '72
60.6
21.5
17.9
is less than 28.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
MacGregor/Dole Press
Conference
Clark MacGregor and Bob Dole are scheduled to have a
Press Conference tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. to discuss the
Get-Out-the-Vote program with Fred Malek.
All in the 9:15 meeting, including Colson, Abrahams,
Clawsen, Chapin, were opposed because the press will
focus the Press Conference on Watergate, etc. Magruder
and Abrahams cannot convince MacGregor that this Press
Conference is a bad idea.
An alternative to the MacGregor/Dole Press Conference
would be a Malek Press Conference since he could better
keep the focus on the Get-Out-the-Vote.
You may want to cover this with MacGregor tomorrow at
8:15.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 23, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
National Telephone Survey #4
Polling Dates: Oct 20-22, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,059
Registered - 917
The package includes all the requested materials from
the fourth National Telephone Survey:
1) Tab A is the receiving memorandum,
2) Tab B is Tom Benham's analysis of the poll,
3) Tab C is the detailed demographics including
the crossbreaks tabbed on the second page of
each question;
4) Tab D is the complete questionnaire; and
5) Tab E is the demographic comparison of
Presidential popularity, handling of Vietnam,
and the trial heats.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 23, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies tonight developed several
interesting items. To summarize:
1) The next Gallup Trial Heat Release will appear Thursday,
October 26. The final figures are 59-36-5, based on
October 13-18 polling dates. The last Gallup poll was
60-34-6 based on September 29-October 9 polling dates;
2) Davies confirmed that the only other trial heat poll
before the election will be conducted November 2-4 for
release on November 6 #
3) The President's support among Democrate has moved from
32% to 33%, a statistically insignificant change except
that it indicates the President's support among Democrats
has not begun to drop,
4) Manual Workers are not any longer supporting the President
as they were, Early in the campaign the President led 68-32.
Now the lead is down to 49-45. Davies speculates that the
labor leaders are beginning to increase the pressure and that
the best issues to hold manual workers to the President are
law and order, amnesty, and Vietnams
5) Although Gallup has done no recent polling on the Vietnam
settlement rumors, a poll conducted in September indicated
that the people do not expect an end to the war before the
end of the year,
- 2 -
6) Davies warns against a settlement before the election
because the public regards last minute foreign policy
decisions as so political as to work against the President.
Davies cites the Gallup post-1968 election survey which
showed that the public objected to LBJ's bombing halt 4 days
before the election. The effect of the public's objection
did not appear in four days and Humphrey benefiteed. Davies
recommends that if a settlement is readied that it be
explained as the culmination of four years of struggle, well-
documented;
7) Although an underdog candidate usually begins closing
the gap in the last two weeks, it is Gallup's opinion that
McGovern cannot now close a gap this wide, and
9) Davies is prepared to bet the President will win 58-42.
A transcript is attached.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 23, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Advertising
CRP/DFN Spot Advertising
The scheduled Budget Meeting to review advertising recom-
mendations and expenditures was cancelled. I advised
Magruder and Dailey of your "view" that all positive
CRP 60-second ads on Older Americans, Passport, Record,
etc., scheduled for the Week of October 23, should be
replaced with the DFN attack ads - Turnaround and Welfare -
and that the 5-minute spots should be the Connally 5 minutes'.
Clark MacGregor decided that in spite of your "view" that
the CRP positive 60's should be run this week and the DFN
attack spots should be run next week. He agreed that the
Connally 5-minute spots should be run.
Magruder and Dailey believe the MacGregor decision implements
the worst of the two arguments. Dailey's theory is that
McGovern has been driven down to 34 points by three months
of attack, He doubts he can be driven lower by further
attack. Instead, Dailey argues that the positive material
should be run to hold the President's 60% by giving Democrats
and Independents as many positive reasons for continuing to
support the President as possible. Dailey's argument is a
little more sophisticated than whether voters are voting for
the President or against McGovern. Dailey also argues that
running the positive material counters the effect of the
Watergate attack from McGovern by indicating to the public
that any President involved in the great issues and trips
for peace couldn't be involved in the political empionage.
- 2 -
Magruder and Dailey now recommend running the DFN 60-second
attack ads - Turnaround and Welfare - this week and then
running the CRP positive ads next week. All agree that the
Connally 5's should be run through to November 7.
Dailey could replace all the network CRP 60's from Tuesday,
October 24 with the DFN attack ads if a decision were reached
quickly.
Before you decide, you should review the new McGovern attack
spots. One quotes Baldwin of Watergate fame saying that Bill
Timmons received transcripts of taped telephone conversations.
Also, you indicated you wanted to view the three Connally 5's
cut from the 30-minute spot.
The President meets with Rogers and Kissinger Tuesday at
10 a.m., if you want to view these materials and make the
decision regarding advertising for the last two weeks of
the campaign.
Set viewing at 10 a.m.
Set viewing at 11:30 (President meeting with
Dr. Kraemer).
No need for Haldeman to view materials,
Let MacGregor's decision stand.
Other.
Connally 1/2 Hour
MacGregor decided not to run the Connally 1/2 hour on Thursday.
Instead, the Connally 5 will be run Thursday between 9:55 and
10 p.m. The Connally 5 is also scheduled on Saturday at 10:55-
11 p.m. on all three networks.
Local Advertising
MacGregor decided to cancel all local TV advertising except
for California and Michigan. In California and Michigan,
1/3 of the available spots will be the DFN attack ad Turnaround.
The other 2/3 in Michigan will be the CRP Busing spot. The
2/3 in California will be the 68esecond Record.
GS/jb
October 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies today developed
several interesting items. To summarize:
1) The next Gallup trial heat release is
scheduled for Thursday, OCtober 26. The
polling dates were Oct 14-15. A standard
1500 sample was used and the results will
be within one or two points of 60-34-6, the
figures released on October 15 based on the
Sep 29- Oct 0 Gallup Poll;
2) The next Gallup trial heat field survey
is scheduled to be conducted November 2, 3
and 4. The results are scheduled to be re-
ported November 6, the Monday before the
election. (Bob Teeter has obtained con-
flicting information - that Gallup is in the
field this weekend - Oct 21-22 and will have
results on Tuesday, Oct. 24).
3) There will be more Gallup issue releases than
originally planned. Because Gallup is using the
regular 1500 sample there will not be the demo-
graphic releases based on the Oct 14-15 survey.
Instead, Gallup will consolidate three surveys
and release information on particular ethnic
groups, such as Irish, Italian, Middle
Europeans, etc.
4) Dr. Gallup Sr's theory is that the issue
questions - which political party is better able to
handle peace and prosperity - kead the trail heat
figures. This shoed Dr. Gallup in 1968 that Humphrey
was moving up. However, in 1972 the only move-
ment is in our favor;
-2-
5) Davies believes the Connally 80 minute was
"one of the most devastating political shows that
I have seen in a long time.' He thinks that it
covered all bases and that we do not need to do
anything on the economy. The only change Davies
would suggest is re-emphasize that Connally is
a Democrat at the end. This will help hold the
32% Democrats who have left McGovern for the
President. Many Democrats are under pressure to
return to the fold, but as long as they believe
that they have company they will stay with the
President.
6) Davies thinks the Connally speech should be
run in segments. He thinks we should avoid the
sarcasm of the Democrats for Nixon attack spots
because it will look like the President is nit-
picking and kicking the guy when he is down.
7) He could not say whether the President was
helding his position with Catholics because
the samples are too small to permit statistically
significant comparisens.
8) He believes the Frank Rizzo contact is excellent
because of theppositive effect on Italians everywhere.
However, he thinks the Revenue Sharing Signing
Ceremony was a dud;
9) Davies believes the President should spend
more time in controlled TV situations to prevent the
news shows from using uncomplimentary material
from stump events. He cites the TV news film of the
President jerking Agnew around to get him on camera.
10) Althoug he recoggizes the political fact that it
would be wrong to debate McGovern, Davies suggests
that it be considered because the President would
cream McGovern and the people want debates.
A transcript of the conversation is attached.
GS:car
October 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Kuchel Radio and T.V.
Spots in California
Maury STans received information from California
people that radio and T.V. ads by former Senator
Tom Kuchel would be effective among the liberal
element in California.
Bob Finch does not think Kuchel would be
effective. Kuchel doesn't mean much anymore
in California.
Herb Klein thinks radio and T.V. spots by
Kuchel would be effective in Northern
California and the San Joaquin Valley.
Fred Malek thinks Huchel would have a positive
effect. However, he does not think the Kuchel
spots would be worth sending new money into
California to pay for them in light of the
strict budget situation. Malek does not think
it would be worth shifting some of the money
already allocated to California to the Kuchel
spots. Malek says his view would be supported
by Nofziger, who was not personally contacted.
RECOMMENDATION:
That Kuchel radio and TV spots not be prepared and
run in California to appeal to the liberal element.
AGREE
DISAGREE
COMMENT
I will advise Stans of your decision.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 20, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Teeter Briefing for
Chapin and Parker
After the CRP Waves I, II, and III, Bob Teeter has orally
briefed Chapin and Parker and prepared written materials
to assist in scheduling. Teeter has not discussed the
Rolling Wave materials with Chapin and Parker. The guide-
lines would be the same as with previous briefings @ no
discussion of the specific trial heat results.
Recommendation:
That Teeter brief Chapin and Parker regarding the Bolling
Wave polls' effect on scheduling with no discussion of
specific trial heat results.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
GS/jb
October 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT I
Connally 5 Minute Spots
The three 5 minute spots that Bill Carruthers made from the
30 minute Connally speech are available for your review.
MacGregor needs the three spots tape for an hour at 4 P. p.m.
today to show to some prominent Dems.
One of the three spots is scheduled to go on network TV on Oct. 28,
H to see Connally spots today
H to, see Connally spots over week-end
Other
GS:pm
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Radio Buys
Chapin indicated that the November Group (Joanou) should
buy two 15-minute radio segments on Saturday, October 21
at 12 noon and Sunday, October 22 at 10 a.m.
Saturday at 12:02-40, CBS, NBC, and Mutual can clear
most of their stations at a total cost of 18,000. This
is almost identical with the October 7 buy:
Buy Saturday 12:06:40 on CBS, NBC, Mutual.
Other.
Sunday at 10 a.m. only CBS will cèear stations. NBC and
Mutual will not pre-empt their religious programming.
However, at 12:15 CBS and NBC will clear their stations.
Mutual could run a delay at 12:35.
Proceed with CBS 10 a.m. buy.
P
Proceed with CBS and NBC at 12:15 and
Mutual at 12:35.
Other.
- 2 -
Two questions remain: whether the speeches will be live
and from Camp David.
Saturday and Sunday speeches live from
Camp David.
Other.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Key States and Senate Races
Clark MacGregor has approved a list of Key States which
includes the crucial areas for the President as well as
local candidates. The document attached at TAB A divides
the President's Key States into four levels indicating the
amount of effort.
Presidential Race
I = California, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey,
New York and West Virginia
II = Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania
III = Maryland, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin
IV = Minnesota
Local Races
The attached document uses a key to describe the situation
in states where effort on behalf of local candidates is
being directed:
NP = No effort necessary for the President
= incumbent
( ) = House race
*
- Maximum support
NG = Net gain in House or Senate
RO - Republican Open
- 2 -
For example, the situation in Illinois is: number II level
of activity for the President; Percy is the incombent Senator;
Madigan is the Republican House candidate in the 21st trying
to keep a Republican seat, Young is the Republican candidate
who would be a net gain if he won the 10th seat.
Senate Races
The updated chart of the Senate Seats, with all available
polling data and comments, is attached at Tab B. MacGregor
will receive a copy.
You may want to discuss Key States and the Senate Races at
tomorrow's Political Meeting.
GS/jb
I = all out Per P
III - mo - 3rddun 3
np = not Per P.
B
= ineum
I
w/o C )= Senate role
Blount
= max support
nG = net gain
RO = Republican Open
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
TO:
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
We need to do a revised list of the states that we need to
worry about or those that are close for Chapin. Chapin
needs this for redoing the surrogate schedules.
Also, Bob should have the latest information available as
to what our priority states really are. In putting together
the list we should look at those states that are close. For
example Texas where we are something like 40 points ahead
should not be included, although it would certainly be a key
state.
Alabama NP
Blount
* (Dickinson - 2nd) Montgomery and S. E. Corner
Alaska NONE
Arizona NONE
Arkansas NONE
I
California
* (Mailliard - 6th) San Francisco
* (Snider - 38th) NG San Bernardino - Riverside
Colorado NP
* (Johnson - 4th) NG Fort Collins and N. W. Corner
(Armstrong - 5th) NG Denver, Aurora
(McKevitt - 1st) Denver
Connecticut NP
* (Sarasin - 5th) NG Waterbury, Wallingford, Meriden
(Rittenband - 1st) NG Hartford
Delaware NP
Boggs
Florida NONE
Georgia NP
*Thompson
* (Cook - 5th) RO Atlanta
hawaii NONE
Idaho NP
*McClure
Page Two
II
Illinois
Percy
(Madigan - 21st) RO Decatur, Champaign, Bloomington
(Young - 10th) NG Cook County
(Hoellen - 11th) NG Cook County
Indiana NP
* (Dennis - 10th) Muncie and Richmond
(Hudnut - 11th) NG Kokomo and Marion
? (Landgrebe - 2nd) Lafayette and North (not Gary or S. Bend) ?
(Hillis - 5th) North of Indianapolis
Iowa NP
* (Schwengel - 1st) Iowa City, Burlington, Davenport
* (Kyl - 4th) Des Moines
Kansas NONE
Kentucky NP
*Nunn
* (Jackson - 6th) NG Frankfort, Lexington
Louisiana NONE
Maine NP
* (Cohen - 2nd) NG Bangor, Lewiston and North
III
Maryland
(Holt - 4th) NG Annapolis
I
Massachusetts
? (Cronin - 5th) RO Middlesex County - Lowell ?
* (Weeks - 12th) RO Weymouth - Plymouth County
* (Linsky- 4th) NG Newton, Brookline, Framingham
Page Three
I
Michigan
Griffen
* (Esch - 2nd) Ann Arbor and South
IV
Minnesota
Hansen
* (Zwach - 6th) St. Cloud and S. W. Corner
* (Haatan - 7th) NG Moorhead and N. W. Corner
Mississippi NP
(Butler - 2nd) NG Columbus to Greenville
(Cochran - 4th) NG Vicksburg and South
III Missouri
* (Sloan - 6th) NG St. Joseph
Montana NP
Hibbard
Nebraska NONE
Nevada NP
(Towell - ALL) NG at large
New Hampshire NP
Powell
I
New Jersey
* (Maraziti - 13th) NG Phillipsburg, Boonton
(Dowd - 3rd) NG Long Branch, Monmouth
New Mexico NP
*Domenici
Page Four
I
New York
* (Gilman - 26th) NG Newburg
* (Koldin - 32nd) NG Syracuse
(Peyser - 23rd) Bronx and Southern Westchester
(Vergari - 24th) NG White Plains and Yonkers
North Carolina NP
*Helms
* (Martin - 9th) RO Charlotte
* (Hawke - 4th) NG Raleigh-Durham
North Dakota NONE
II
Ohio
Oklahoma NP
*Bartlett
*(Hewgley - 1st) RO Tulsa
III
Oregon
II
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island NP
*Chaffee
South Carolina NP
(Limehouse - 1st) NG Charleston
South Dakota NP
*Hirsch
* (Abdnor - 2nd) NG Western two thirds
(Vickerman - 1st) NG Eastern Third
Page Five
Tennessee NP
* (Beard - 6th) NG Clarksville - Columbia
Texas NP
*Tower
* (Price - 13th) Amarillo, Wichita Falls
(Steelman - 5th) NG Dallas
Utah NONE
Vermont NONE
Virginia NP
SCOTT
III Washington
(Bledsoe - 4th) NG Yakima and North
I
West Virginia
III Wisconsin
(Thomson - 3rd) La Crosse, Eau Claire
(Froelich - 8th) RO Green Bay and North
Wyoming NP
(Kidd - ALL) NG at large
SENATE SEATS
STATE
CANDIDATES
POLLS
COMMENTS
INCUMBENTS
Michigan
Griffin (R)
10/16 - 47-37-2-14
Lead still very soft, Detroit area
Kelley (D).
9/21 - 42-36-22
still key, needs P visit.
Texas
Tower (R)
10/3 - 53-30-17
Tower pulling away as organization
Sanders (D)
9/12 - 46-41-13
improves -- needs another showing of
P interest. Still a lingering anti-
Tower sentiment among voters.
Delaware
Boggs (R)
8/15 - 63-18-19
Biden very attractive and running
Biden (D)
9/15 - 41-29-31
well. Boggs badly in need of P
10/15 - 46-40-14
assist. TV & radio tapes will help.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Kentucky
Nunn (R)
10/3 - 53-30-17
Field reports organization needs pick-
Huddleston (D)
9/12 - 46-41-13
up. Nunn thinks campaign going well.
Idaho
McClure (R)
10/9 - 47-30-23
Field reports encouraging.
Davis (D)
South
Hirsch (R)
8/1 - 38-44-18
Needs $ and help in western part of
Dakota
Abourezk (D)
10/6 - 39-44-17
state. Also Butz & Mrs. N. wanted.
NON-INCUMBENTS
New Mexico
Domenici (R)
39-24-37
Organization closely tied into P's.
Daniels (D)
Needs $ - looks good.
Rhode
Chaffee (R)
9/22 - 49-34-17
Needs Mrs. N. visit, organization
Island
Pell (D)
10/12 - Chaffee +8
now working w/P's.
Georgia
Thompson (R)
No good data
Field reports close race, running poor
Nunn (D)
campaign. P's visit a real boost.
Oklahoma
Bartlett (R)
Due 10/20
Campaign improving, still needs
Edmondson (D)
identity w/P.
POSSIBLE
North
Helms (R)
No good data
Running poor campaign -- too conserva-
Carolina
Galifianakis (D)
tive, organization now improving w/
tie-in to P. Considered close enough
to win.
Alabama
Blount (R)
28-47-2-23
Well organized -- P coattails will be
Sparkman (D)
strong w/straight ticket. Needs more
P involvement -- TV tapes.
Montana
Hibbard (R)
No good data
Needs $ but now very doubtful and our
Metcalf (D)
resources should not be wasted here.
Louisiana
Toledano (R)
No good data
3-way race -- needs $ and organiza-
LONG SHOT
Johnston (D)
tional help.
McKeithen (I)
Virginia
Scott (R)
No good data
Poor candidate, totally dependent on
Spong (D)
P landslidè.
New
Powell (R)
10/16 - 30-58-15
Very conservative candidate, but
Hampshire
McIntrye (D)
trying to tie race in w/P's.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Boggs' District
There is no Republican candidate for Boggs' district,
according to Dent. In the redistricting Boggs' district
was made so safe that David Treen, who had tried to
defeat Boggs previously, decided to seek the Congressional
seat in the adjoining district.
There will be a special election held for Boggs' seat.
This would probably be held in February or March.
GS/jb
H
THE WHITE HOUSE
FU
WASHINGTON
10/18
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIG
Y
L
Find out if we have a candidate in Boggs' district and
what his calibre is and get a report in to Haldeman by
close of business Wednesday.
Dent- - no Rep and;
10/17
Redis
- Treen running in next District
Checking whether get and in
- Hold special elee but wouldn't
behild until Feb/mer
- no way we can run a manin
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
New York and California
Legislature Endorsements
The New York and California GOP and CRP organizations
have asked for endorsement letters for some of their
state legislature candidates. The general rule, enforced
by Dent and Price, is that blanket letters of endorsement
do not go out to unselected local office holders.
In New York 10 of the requested 108 have been done by
special appeal. The balance should receive a standard
endorsement letter according to Harry Dent, the New York
GOP, the New York CRP, and the CRP Regional Director.
In California, Nofziger and the CRP Regional Director
have asked for endorsement letters for the 18 "Cal Plan"
candidates. According to Nofziger on October 17, Reagan
is actively pushing for these letters.
Because there are only 19 days left, telegrams would be
better than letters. Nightletters cost $3.20 each, one-
third that of a telegram.
Alternative language for the endorsements appears in the
attached. One is a full, warm endorsement; the other is
a "Best Wishes" message.
Recommendation:
That the "Best Wishes" nightletter be sent to the New York
and California state legislature candidates.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys -
John Davies Discussion
In a long conversation with John Davies of Gallup he made
the following points:
1) There is some indication the President's vote
among Youth is softening, but the sample is too small for
a public release on that point;
2) Gallup will continue releasing information during
the campaign regarding likelihood of voting which indicates
the President does much better than McGovern among those
voters who will vote,
3) Davies and those at the New York Times using the
Yankelovich survey are in contact regarding comparative
results;
4) Dr. Gallup, Sr. distrusts telephone polling. In
1968 Davies directed a political polling operation to run
simultaneously with the field polls. Davies says, "I
would look extremely carefully at what the telephone polls
show". The result was that telephone polling showed the
President 5% above the field poll results;
5) Davies disregards Sindlinger entirely, indicating
that the Sindlinger attempt to pick up subjective trends
is a lot of crap. Whether the comments are coming from
Nixon or McGovern supporters and whether the vote is
influenced is crucial and Sindlinger doesn't show this,
6) Although the "corruption" charge will "make some
difference", the public believes "all politicians are
corrupt", so it doesn't have much effect,
- 2 -
7) Dr. Gallup, Sr. believes that the questions on
handling peace and prosperity lead trial heat changes.
In 1968, the Democrats began improving in both of these
categories before Humphrey began moving up in the trial
heats,
3) In 1972 the only dhift on handling peace and
prosperity has been "away from the Democrats ... the
Republicans for the first time have a pretty substantial
lead on both of those questions of keeping the country
out of a major war and keeping the pursestrangs in sensible
shape".
9) Davies believes it cannot be determined this early
whether it would be helpful for a heavy or a light turnout.
The question is whether the Democrats who now support the
President might just sit out the election rather than vote
for the President or McGovern,
10) The President's economic policies and McGovern's
screwball plans are holding the Democrats for the President.
The main issue for the President's Democrats is not national
defense. For every Democrat Gallup interviewed who opposed
busing or amnesty, there were 2 or 3 Democrats who couldn't
stand the welfare plan and giveaway programs;
11) National defense is not a burning issue any more; and
12) In Davies' opinion, McGovern has to convince the
people that the war is still going on at full steam in order
to win. He also has to do something with his position and
perception on the economy.
GS/jb
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
California Field Poll
Nofziger called late last night with the results
of the Field Poll, to be released soon in
California:
RN
McG
Others
Un
Sep 29-Oct 6
50
36
2
12
GS:car
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
TV Buys
Peter Dailey had the answers this afternoon to the
questions you asked on the attached memorandum, To
summarize:
Democrats:
Friday, October 20
- 10:30-11:00 p.m.- ABC
McGovern on Economics
Wednesday, October 25 -
7:30-8:00 p.m. - ABC
McGovern on Unknown Subject
Monday, November 6
-
8:30-9:00 p.m. - ABC
Subject Unknown
Connally's 1/2 hour:
Friday, October 20 - 7:30-8:00 p.m. - NBC, ABC, and 34 CBS
local TV markets
Monday, October 23 - Negotiating; nontime or network set
GS/jb
MS
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
Answer please today
October 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
TV Buys
Joanou reports that the Democrats have cleared 10:30-
whatevers
11:00 p.m. on Friday, October 20 for McGovern's speech
on Economics.
The November Group is buying Friday, October 20 at 7:30 p.m.
for the Connally 1/2 hour,
Whatchout monday
The Democrats have also cleared October 25, 7:30-8:00 p.m.,
for a McGovern speech. Subject and network are not yet
known.
they Unit clear it upon network
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Reaction to the
President's Documentary
Peter Dailey received three calls with comments on the
documentary that ran on Saturday, October 14.
Bart Cummings of Compton Advertising thought the film
was excellent. His view was confirmed by Tom Adams of
Campbell.
John Gavin, President of the Screen Actors Guild, called
Dailey and told him that the vignettes on the President
were particularly effective. Also, Gavin said that the
use of "the President" several times with infrequent use
of "Nixon" was effective.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
National Telephone Survey #3
Polling Dates: Oct 13-15, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,056
Registered - 922
This package includes the requested materials from the
third National Telephone Survey:
1) Tab A is the receiving memorandum,
2) Tab B is Tom Benham's analysis of the poll,
3) Tab C is the detailed demographics including
the crossbreaks tabbed on the second page of
each question;
4) Tab D is the complete questionnaire.
The demographic comparison of Presidential popularity,
handling of Vietnam, and the trial heats have just been
computed and will follow as soon as possible.
GS/jb
October 14, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Teeter Polling Information
Bob Teeter called with polling information from
several states:
Michigan
The Detroit News will release their MOR poll on October
15:
+RN
McG
Schmitz
Un
MOR - Oct 8-11
50
37
1
12
ORC - Spt25-Oct5
63
26
11
MOR - Spt17-21
52
37
11
MOR - Spt 1
54
38
8
A review of previous Michigan elections shows that the
Democratic candidate will pick-up 6-8 points from
the undecided.
Massachusetts
Teeter learned that Becker will release a poll tomorrow
showing the President with a 4 point lead in Massachusetts.
Teeter does not have any more information.
Minnesota
MacGregor told Teeter that tomorrow Minnesota's poll
will show the President with a 22 point lead. No more
information is available.
- 2 -
Delaware
MOR just did a survey which shows Senator Boggs
in trouble in Delaware. The final figures will be
available late tonight. The President is doing
well in Delaware.
Rhode Isladd
A Becker Poll conducted last weekend whows Chafeee
with an 8 point lead. No other figures are available.
Newspaper polls have shown Chaffee with an 8-12 point
lead. Chaffee is anxious to have Mrs. Nixon visit
the state.
GS:car
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
N.Y. and L.A. Nielsen Overnights
President's Documentary
N.Y.
10/5
9.6
L.A.
8.6
McGovern's Speech
N.Y.
5.9
7.7
L.A.
9.5
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
TV Buys
Joanou reports that the Democrats have cleared 10:30-
11:00 p.m. on Friday, October 20 for McGovern's speech
on Economics.
The November Group is buying Friday, October 20 at 7:30 p.m.
for the Connally 1/2 hour.
The Democrats have also cleared October 25, 7:30-8:00 p.m.,
for a McGovern speech. Subject and network are not yet
known.
GS/jb