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This file contains:
List of states with Republican Governors and amounts of money next to them. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Hadwritten notes titled Special. Lists California, Del., Mass., and S.C. with numbers by each. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
States that are electing new senators in 1970 and whether or not they will need dollar assistance. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/22/1970
List of Democratic senators and the amount of money they are receiving for 1970 campaign and from where they are receiving the money. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A list titled Key States. Some states have checks, question marks, or 'I' while other states have no marking at all. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
List of names next to monetary values under the handwritten title "ACA." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Reading of the situation as of Oct. 20. How the outcomes of the senator elections will effect the President's image. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Priority Congressional Races in Nineteen Dent States. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Murray Chotiner To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Opinion on which states should receive assistance during senator races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1970
Handwritten "House" wriiten on note. Priority Congressional Races in 31 Chotiner States. Murray Chotiner's notes on candidates running for senator including their strengths and weaknesses. 17 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten "Governors" on note. Murray Chotiner's opinion on Vulnerable GOP Governor Races. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Governor Races Worthy of Campaign Contributions. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/16/1970
A report on the House and Senate races. The odds on who is more likely triumph. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 7/1/1970
A color coded map of The House of Representatives and how many Democrats and Republicans are represented from each state. Two map of governors and senators from each state, their political party, and year up for elections. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Article by columnist, Kevin Phillips, regarding chicanos in Texas ignoring Democratic primary. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Vermont displays Democratic strength and may signal defeat for Prouty. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Maine voting trends and candidate Muskie's background. Attached 1970 Maine Election Questionnaire. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
What states Agnew should be placed depending on administration. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Developing campaign counter-strategy based on the novel, "The Real Majority," by Scammon and Wattenburg. Offers a cogent strategy for a liberal Democrat which can be used as a conter-startegy for Republicans. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
For: The Middle America Group From: Tom Charles Huston RE: The Labor Vote in 1972. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/11/1970
New York Times article by Jack Rosenthal about white ethnic working class angry at being ignored by the government and the media. Titled: Angry Ethnic Voices Decry a 'Racist and Dullard' Image. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/17/1970
From: Bill Safire To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Early Warning on '72. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/7/1970
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26145776
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WHSF: Contested, 19-2
core
doc
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document
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pageCount
1
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26145776
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document
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WHSF: Contested, 19-2
description
This file contains:
List of states with Republican Governors and amounts of money next to them. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Hadwritten notes titled Special. Lists California, Del., Mass., and S.C. with numbers by each. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
States that are electing new senators in 1970 and whether or not they will need dollar assistance. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/22/1970
List of Democratic senators and the amount of money they are receiving for 1970 campaign and from where they are receiving the money. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A list titled Key States. Some states have checks, question marks, or 'I' while other states have no marking at all. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
List of names next to monetary values under the handwritten title "ACA." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Reading of the situation as of Oct. 20. How the outcomes of the senator elections will effect the President's image. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Priority Congressional Races in Nineteen Dent States. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Murray Chotiner To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Opinion on which states should receive assistance during senator races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1970
Handwritten "House" wriiten on note. Priority Congressional Races in 31 Chotiner States. Murray Chotiner's notes on candidates running for senator including their strengths and weaknesses. 17 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten "Governors" on note. Murray Chotiner's opinion on Vulnerable GOP Governor Races. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Governor Races Worthy of Campaign Contributions. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/16/1970
A report on the House and Senate races. The odds on who is more likely triumph. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 7/1/1970
A color coded map of The House of Representatives and how many Democrats and Republicans are represented from each state. Two map of governors and senators from each state, their political party, and year up for elections. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Article by columnist, Kevin Phillips, regarding chicanos in Texas ignoring Democratic primary. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Vermont displays Democratic strength and may signal defeat for Prouty. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Maine voting trends and candidate Muskie's background. Attached 1970 Maine Election Questionnaire. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
What states Agnew should be placed depending on administration. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Developing campaign counter-strategy based on the novel, "The Real Majority," by Scammon and Wattenburg. Offers a cogent strategy for a liberal Democrat which can be used as a conter-startegy for Republicans. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
For: The Middle America Group From: Tom Charles Huston RE: The Labor Vote in 1972. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/11/1970
New York Times article by Jack Rosenthal about white ethnic working class angry at being ignored by the government and the media. Titled: Angry Ethnic Voices Decry a 'Racist and Dullard' Image. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/17/1970
From: Bill Safire To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Early Warning on '72. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/7/1970
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
List of states with Republican Governors and
amounts of money next to them. 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
Hadwritten notes titled Special. Lists
California, Del., Mass., and S.C. with
numbers by each. 1 pg.
19
2
7/22/1970
Campaign
Memo
States that are electing new senators in 1970
and whether or not they will need dollar
assistance. 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
List of Democratic senators and the amount
of money they are receiving for 1970
campaign and from where they are receiving
the money. 1 pg.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Page 1 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
A list titled Key States. Some states have
checks, question marks, or T while other
states have no marking at all. 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
List of names next to monetary values under
the handwritten title "ACA." 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
Reading of the situation as of Oct. 20. How
the outcomes of the senator elections will
effect the President's image. 3 pgs.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
Priority Congressional Races in Nineteen
Dent States. 1 pg.
19
2
10/7/1970
Campaign
Memo
From: Murray Chotiner To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Opinion on which states should receive
assistance during senator races. 1 pg.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Page 2 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten "House" wriiten on note.
Priority Congressional Races in 31 Chotiner
States. Murray Chotiner's notes on
candidates running for senator including their
strengths and weaknesses. 17 pgs.
19
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten "Governors" on note. Murray
Chotiner's opinion on Vulnerable GOP
Governor Races. 2 pgs.
19
2
7/16/1970
Campaign
Memo
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE:
Governor Races Worthy of Campaign
Contributions. 2 pgs.
19
2
7/1/1970
Campaign
Report
A report on the House and Senate races. The
odds on who is more likely triumph. 8 pgs.
19
2
Campaign
A color coded map of The House of
Representatives and how many Democrats
and Republicans are represented from each
state. Two map of governors and senators
from each state, their political party, and year
up for elections. 4 pgs.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Page 3 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
2
Campaign
Newspaper
Article by columnist, Kevin Phillips,
regarding chicanos in Texas ignoring
Democratic primary. 2 pgs.
19
2
Campaign
Memo
Vermont displays Democratic strength and
may signal defeat for Prouty. 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Memo
Maine voting trends and candidate Muskie's
background. Attached 1970 Maine Election
Questionnaire. 2 pgs.
19
2
Campaign
Memo
What states Agnew should be placed
depending on administration. 1 pg.
19
2
Campaign
Report
Developing campaign counter-strategy based
on the novel, "The Real Majority," by
Scammon and Wattenburg. Offers a cogent
strategy for a liberal Democrat which can be
used as a conter-startegy for Republicans. 13
pgs.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Page 4 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
2
9/11/1970
Campaign
Memo
For: The Middle America Group From: Tom
Charles Huston RE: The Labor Vote in 1972.
6 pgs.
19
2
6/17/1970
Campaign
Newspaper
New York Times article by Jack Rosenthal
about white ethnic working class angry at
being ignored by the government and the
media. Titled: Angry Ethnic Voices Decry a
'Racist and Dullard' Image. 4 pgs.
19
2
8/7/1970
Campaign
Memo
From: Bill Safire To: H.R. Haldeman RE:
Early Warning on '72. 1 pg.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Page 5 of 5
Alaska
10,000
Ariz
Calif
2500
Del
2,500
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
A-fith
15,000
A
Mass
$20,000 only reeds 10 not 15,000
Mich
G Migg
60,000
Neb
N.Y.
Penn
Virginia
Wash
W. Va.
M Rade debed- $11,000
S.C. 10,000
4 S.D Fub 25,000
9/17
Deb
Special
Calif
2.5
Del.
2.5
Mass 2
5
3
9
S.C.
10
/
mixic. 30
Ferrar ? 25
any chance in Ga Gov. - if so help him of need
MEMORANDUM
July 23, 1970
Following are the conclusions of the meeting 7/22/70.
35 states elect a Senator in 1970.
States which undoubtedly should not receive dollar assistance -- 13:
Arizona
Illinois
New York
West Virginia
California
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Delaware 2.5TF Mississippi
Virginia
Hawaii
Nebraska
Washington
States to watch -- possible dollar assistance -- need more information -- 9:
Connecticut Maryland 2.5 Texas
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin
Indiana 7.5
Ohio
Wyoming 21 10 going (hold twowaks)
States to assist -- 13 -- We agree that:
1. No state will receive more than the total outside need
of that state as assessed by our group.
2. Timing will be geared to avoid the problem of candidates'
financial committees becoming lazy. Big money shouldn't go
before September -- Emphasize media.
3. Money may be allocated whether or not the primaries have
been completed, if necessary.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12356, Section 1.1
By AM NARA, Date 5/2/96
Unions
(COPE)
DSC 1
NCEC 2
McG 3
S.A.⁴
TOTAL
Gore
$22,850
$ 9,000
$20,000
$40,000
$91,850
Moss
26,700
20,000
40,000
$1,000
87,700
Tydings
17,200
10,000
5,000
3,000
100
35,300
Hart
15,250
10,000
20,000
25,000
70,250
Burdick
18,250
1,000
15,000
29,000
63,250
Williams
53,300
15,000
25,000
1,100
94,400
McGee
24,540
10,000
25,000
59,540
Montoya
21,100
9,000
1,000
31,100
Muskie
23,750
5,000
1,000
29,750
Cannon
11,100
6,000
1,200
18,300
Proxmire
22,400
9,000
5,000
14,000
50,400
Symington
1,200
5,000
5,000
1,000
12,200
Mansfield
5,000
5,000
1,000
11,000
Jackson
11,800
1,000
1,000
13,800
Byrd
14,650
1,000
15,650
Hartke
12,570
10,000
1,000
1,100
24,670
Kennedy
6,700
1,000
7,700
Metzenbaum
9,500
10,000
19,500
Tunney
12,800
10,000
22,800
Stevenson
6,000
15,000
25,000
46,000
Hoff
13,100
25,000
15,000
55,600
1 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
2 National Committee for Effective Congress
3 1970 Campaign Fund (McGovern)
4 Savings Association Pol. Education Committee
KEY STATES
I Alaska
Nevada
I California
New Jersey
Connecticut
New Mexico
Delaware
North Dakota
Florida
Ohio
I Illinois
Tennessee
Indiana
Texas
Maryland
Utah
Michigan
Ivermont
7 Minnesota
Wyoming
Missouri
ACA
Brock
$3,000
Burton
$3,000
Carter
$2,000
Murphy $3,000
Roudebush $3,000
Weicker $1,000
Buckley $1,000
H. Byrd $3,000
N. Gross $ 500
Kleppe $ 500
Bob For H. what it's worth
If angthing - -
Reading of the Situation as of Oct. 20
Most conservatives seem to feel that the Agnew fensive has
not carried many party Senate candidates over the top, and that it has
not been able to make up - among conservative-leaning Middle-Americans -
for the Administration's lack of programmatic achievement, plus the
doubtful state of the economy.
As a result, many conservatives, who feel that if they don't take
steps the defeat will be blamed on Administration conservatism, want to
disassociate themselves from the pre-Nixon achievement levels of the
campaign. This is being done.
But the same manuevers that get conservatives off the hook also
establish that the situation antedating the President's involvement was
not good. This does two things: 1) it mitigates the identification of
the
President
wish
any
def
(if
'or any surprise victory to redound to his credit.
Everybody expects to start playing an uptrend theme next week,
and this mid-month slump may provide the base for a surge if the
President can strike some new and more positive notes in his tour.
With things being played this way, if the election goes well, its
his ball game.
Of course, I don't see that happening right now. A Senate gain
of 2-3 would be an ambiguous result viz all the hoopla of taking
control. The propagandists might do well to switch to the idea that
a 3-5 seat gain (ideological control) was the realistic tagget all
along,
P.S The Ripons and The American Conservative
Union are talking together a Govt
Administration on a joint front for Things like The (school)
programmatic naction -and
vouches system
1. White House Polls
I looked at the five July-August polls: Tenn. (J), N. Mex. (A),
Maine (J), Indiana (A) and Missouri (A). They do not seem particularly
useful.
The New Mexico one (by Decision-Making Information) seemed the
most carefully done. As of August, Carter trailed by a wide margin.
Recent polls in the Alberquerque Tribune show him running ahead of
the levels scored by Montoya's 1964 opponent, Ed Mechem, who won 45%.
This one has to be close.
The Maine poll was a local one, with little data. It indicated
a Muskie win on the magnitude of 1964. I would think he would win by
a little less.
The Missouri poll suggests that Symington will beat Danforth
by a large majority. The poll is out of date already, but I would
agree than Symington is set.
The Tennessee poll shows Brock ahead; so do current polls.
However, Gore seems to be coming up.
As for the Indiana poll, this one seemed to have too Democratic
a sample group. The people questioned were about two-to-one for Bayh in
1968, and Bayh won only narrowly. The poll showed Roudebush well behind
in August. I have not seen any more recent.
As for issues, the polls (outside of Maine) suggest that
the usual spectrum of social issues cuts best for the GOP.
Overall, I don't think that at this date, these polls are
worth much. Small (300-sample) trend polls run every two weeks are the
best way to keep track of a campaign.
2. Senate races
I am getting less sanguine about GOP chances. I have a gut
feeling that second-rate types like Murphy, Prouty, Smith, Roudebush
and Cramer (I would not even rate Nelson Gross) are going to lose seats
that should be won. It is a bit like October, 1968. I see it slipping
away because most of cour candidates do not stand for anything except
law and order and Harry Treleavenism/media imagery. The electorate is
smarter than that.
The Vice President's speechmaking is symbolic of the party's
lack of a positive, programmatic appeal in conservative directions. The
namecalling turns people off, but more than that, it is a virtual admission
that we can do nothing with these issues except namecall - and that in itself
is major cause for disenchantment with Republicanism as an alternative
to liberal bankruptcy. If one likens the recent societal ills of this
country - violence, anarchy, amorality - to a rockslide, the Vice President
never describes how the inexpert and misguided Democrats pulled the
timbers and braces out of the side of the mountain, he simply accuses the
Democrats of being for rockslides. Since nobody is consciously for
rockslides, it doesn't sell. The social issue is not working for us because
Agnew's appeal is superficial and the real differences that should be
developed between the parties - viz social engineering, welfare, neigh-
borhoods - cannot because of the welfare scheme, George Romney, plus all
the social programs (like rent subsidies) that the budget people continue
to move forward. In a similar vein, it would be useful to develop
attacks on the Democratic pattern of non-law enforcement between 1965-1968
as a setting for the breakdown of authority.
Right now, I see Vermont, Illinois and New York probably replacing
Republicans with Democrats, while Tennessee, North Dakota and Ohio (if
Metzenbaum's Red-front record gets played up) should elect new Republicans.
Utah would be a fourth. Doubtful are California, Texas, Florida, Connecticut
and New Mexico. If all goes fairly well, I see a gain of 1-3. I am not
optimistic.
I think it is time for the President and positivism to replace
the Vice President and negativism. The key states for him to visit would
be Ohio and Tennessee, then Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Utah and California.
Priority Congressional Races in
Nineteen Dent States
State
District
GOP Nominee
Colorado
1st
Mike McKevitt
New Jersey
9th
Henry L. Hoebel
New Jersey
4th
Edward Costigan
North Carolina
11th
Luke Atkinson
Maryland
6th
George Hughes
YES
South Carolina
2nd
Floyd D. Spence
yes
South Dakota
2nd
Fred Brady
South Dakota
1st
Dexter Gunderson
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 7, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM: MURRAY CHOTINER
I recommend assistance to our candidates in the following House
races:
California
34 C.D.
Teague (R) V. Hanna (D)
California
38 C.D.
Veysey (R) V. Tunno (D)
yes
New York
5 C.D.
Lent (R) V. Lowenstein (D)
New York
25 C.D.
Peyser (R) V. Dretzin (D), DeVito (Con.)
and Greenawalt (Lib.)
New York
34 C.D.
Terry (R) V. McCurn (D)
New York
39 C.D.
Kemp (R) V. McCarthy (Con.) and
Flaherty (D)
yes
Massachusetts
6 C.D.
Phillips (R) V. Harrington (D)
Connecticut
1 C.D.
Uccello (R) V. Cotter (D)
Connecticut
2 C.D.
Steele (R) V. Pickett (D)
Wisconsin
7 C.D.
LeTendre (R) V. Obey (D)
yes
Missouri
10 C.D.
Rust (R) V. Burlison (D)
Utah
yes
1 C.D.
Richards (R) V. McKay (D)
Duman
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
House
PRIORITY CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN 31 CHOTINER STATES
PRIORITY GAINS
Dent
Richard Hanna
Calif. 34
Vacant (D)
Calif. 38
John march Va 7
John Melcher
Mont. 2
Allard Lowenstein
N. Y. 5
Byron Rogus Colo /
Vacant (D)
N. Y. 34
David Hen derson NC 3
James Hanley
N. Y. 35
Vacant (D)
N. Y. 39
Heavy Helstoshi NJ9
Michael Harrington
Mass. 6
Roy Tenglor NC //
Vacant (D)
Conn. 1
Robert Roe NJ 8
Vacant (D)
Conn. 2
Gus Yatron
Pa. 6
Nick Galifianchis NC 4
David Obey
Wisc. 7
James Corman
Calif. 22
James Haby Fla 7
Don Edwards
Calif. 9
Earl Cabell Tax 5
George Shipley
Ill. 23
William Chappell Fla 4
Bill Burlison
Mo. 10
Vacant (D)
N. Y. 25
Frank Thompson NJY
William Hungate
Mo. 9
INCUMBENT VACATING - VULNERABLE
Howard Pollock
Alaska, At Large Seam Beall moe 6
Lowell Weicker
Conn. 4
Calbert Watson SC 2
Thomas Meskill
Conn. 6
Nebr. 2
Cultian Brock Term3
Glenn Cunningham
N. D. 2
EY Berry
50 2
Thomas Kleppe
Ben Reifel so /
INCUMBENT HELD - VULNERABLE
Orville Hansen
Idaho 2
William Cowge Ky 3
Ross Adair
Ind. 4
GWM Whiteheart Va 2
Roger Zion
Ind. 8
David Dennis
Ind. 10
-2-
INCUMBENT HELD - VULNERABLE
Fred Schwengel
Iowa 1
John Kyl
Iowa 4
Keith Sebelius
Kan. 1
Odin Langen
Minn. 7
Manuel Lujan, Jr.
N. M. 1
Ed Foreman
N. M. 2
Henry Schadeberg
Wisc. 1
LONG SHOT GAINS
Richardram Preya
NC6
Morris Udall
Ariz. 2
Ronald Dellums
Calif. 7
Tom Steed
ohle 4
Vacant (D)
N. Y. 1
PotHollohan
Will /
Edward Koch
N. Y. 17
Vacant (D)
N. Y. 19
David Sattafield
Va 3
NJ3
Lee Hamilton
Ind. 9
James Howard
FROM: Murray Chotiner
TOP TARGET HOUSE DISTRICTS - - Total 8
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
California
34
Richard Hanna
William Teague
49.1%
Teague made a strong
showing last time and
has a strong campaign.
California
38
Vacant (Tunney)
State Assemblyman
35.4%
Veysey has strong agri-
Victor Veysey
cultural support, although
he is facing Tunno, whose
name may be confused
with Tunney. He was AA
with Tunney.
Montana
2
John Melcher
Jack Rehberg
48.5%
Melcher (D) won in the
special election to re-
place GOP James Battin.
A strong campaign can
regain the seat.
New York
5
Allard Lowenstein
Norman Lent
49%
Lowenstein won in 1968
with only 51% of the vote.
Reapportionment has
given the GOP a good
majority.
New York
34
Vacant
John H. Terry
43.8%
Reapportionment has
given us a GOP majority
and our candidate is
the Assemblyman for
much of the District.
FROM: Murray Chotiner
-2-
TOP TARGET HOUSE DISTRICTS - Total 8
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
New York
35
James Hanley (he
John O'Connor
29.5%
The percentage of the
was the incumbent
1968 election means
in the 34 CD, but
nothing. Reapportion-
is now running in
ment radically realtered
the 35 C. D.
the District and is-now
Republican 2 to 1.
New York
39
Vacant
Jack Kemp
42%
Kemp is widely known.
Massachusetts
6
Michael Harrington
Howard Phillips
47.6%
Harrington won a
special election to fill
the vacancy created by
the death of Wm. Bates
(R). Phillips is the
organizer of YAF.
FROM: Murray Chotiner
SECOND TARGET HOUSE DISTRICTS - - Total 4
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
Connecticut
First
Vacant
Mayor Ann
37.3%
Mayor Uccello of
Uccello
Hartford is a strong
vote getter and there is
no incumbent.
Connecticut
2
Vacant
R. H. Steele
45.3%
Steele is 31 years of age;
member of the invest-
ment department of
Travelers Insurance; a
former CIA agent and
son of TV personality,
Bob Steele.
Pennsylvania
6
Gus Yatron
Michael Kitsock
47.5%
Incumbent Yatron is a
Democrat one-termer.
Wisconsin
7
David Obey
Andre LeTendre
48.5%
Obey (D) won the special
election when Mel Laird
came into the Cabinet;
LeTendre is immediate
past President of the
Junior Chamber of
Commerce.
FROM: Murray Chotiner
THIRD TARGET HOUSE SEATS - Total 7
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
California
22
James Corman
Tom Hayden
41.4%
Campaign is headed by
John Wayne and is in-
fused with many young,
active people. We,can
win this if HUD will stop
putting low cost housing
units in selected resi-
dential areas.
California
9
Don Edwards
Mark Guerra,
43.1%
Edwards was on and off
Educator
whether he would run for
re-election this time.
He has marital difficulty
as a result of deciding to
run. There are a large
number of voters of
Mexican descent.
Illinois
23
George Shipley
Phyllis Schafly
46%
Mrs. Schafly is putting
on a very strong
campaign.
Missouri
10
Bill Burlison
Gary Rust
46%
The incumbent is a one-
termer. The results
last time make it a key
target area.
New York
25
Vacant
Peter Peyser
34.7%
The '68 percentage does
not mean much. The
District is basically
Republican. It is the
FROM: Murray Chotiner
-2-
THIRD TARGET HOUSE SEATS -- Total 7
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
New York
25 (contd. )
former Ottinger seat.
The Conservatives and
Liberals each have
another candidate so it is
a four-way race.
Missouri
9
William Hungate
Anthony Schroeder
47.8%
The results last time
make it a key target area.
FROM: Murray Chotiner
LONG-SHOT HOUSE SEATS--Total 6
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
%
Notes
Arizona
2
Morris Udall
State Treasurer
29.7%
This is a sleeper and
Morris Herring
Herring is mounting con-
siderable support.
California
7
Jeffery Cohelan
John E. Healy
29.6%
An ultra-liberal Black
upset by Ronald
peace candidate defeated
Dellums
the incumbent. There
may be a strong
Democratic dissent as a
result.
New York
1
Vacant
Malcolm Smith
35.9%
Smith has Republican and
Conservative endorse-
ment.
New York
17
Edward Koch
Peter Sprague
42.8%
Koch (D) is a first-
termer. This was a
Republican District
until 1968.
New York
19
Vacant
Barry Farber
33.2%
Incumbent Farbstein (D)
was defeated. The
Democratic nominee
Bella Abzug has a knack
for turning off voters;
Farber (R) has Republican
as well as Liberal line on
the ballot.
Indiana
9
Lee Hamilton
Richard Wathen
45.6%
Roudebush could help
bring this one through.
PRIORITY CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN NINETEEN DENT STATES
PRIORITY GAINS
GOP
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
Percentage
Notes
Virginia
7th
John Marsh
J. Kenneth
43.2
Marsh is retiring and is
Robinson
helping Robinson.
Colorado
1st
Byron Rogers
Mike McKevitt
41.5
Polls show we will take t!
Denver seat with District
Attorney McKevitt.
North Carolina
3rd
David Henderson
Herbert Howell
46.0
Howell lost last time but
never quit campaigning.
think he is stronger this
time.
New Jersey
9th
Henry Helstoski
Henry L. Hoebel
48.6
This Bergen County seat
should be ours. Hoebel is
a county free-holder and a
conservative.
North Carolina
11th
Roy Taylor
Luke Atkinson
42.9
This is western North
Carolina and has been clo
before. Atkinson is a str
candidate.
New Jersey
8th
Robert Roe
Alfred Fontenella
49.9
This seat went nearly Re-
publican last election. Ol
candidate is much stronger
now.
1.
Page 2
PRIORITY GAINS (continued)
GOP
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
Percentage
Notes
North Carolina
4th
Nick Galifianakis
Jack Hawke
48.5
Former GOP seat.
Florida
7th
James A. Haley
Harry Blair
45.0
This is a Republican area
(probably)
and Blair is an eager candi-
date.
Texas
5th
Earle Cabell
Frank Crowley
38.6
Good candidate from Dallas
Florida
4th
William Chappell
Not determined
47.2
This is a Republican area.
We need a good candidate.
New Jersey
4th
Frank Thompson
Edward Costigan
46.4
We have been doing well
there with weaker candidate
than we have this year.
2
FROM: Murray Chotiner
VULNERABLE GOP HOUSE SEATS -- TOTAL 16 (+ Ohio)
Democratic
State
District
Incumbent
Candidate
%
Notes
Alaska
At Large
Vacant
State Senator
54.2%
Congressman Pollock is
(Pollock)
Nick Begich
running for Governor.
The GOP candidates are
Bircher - C.R. Lewis;
Frank Murkowski and Red
Stevens. Lewis may
defeat Murkowski. Begich
lost to Pollock in 1968
receiving 45. 8%.
Connecticut
4
Vacant
(Weicker)
51.4%
Incumbent Weicker is run-
ning for Senator. GOP
candidate is State Rep.
Stewart McKinney.
Weicker only won by a
narrow margin in 1968.
Connecticut
6
Vacant
(Meskill)
Secy. of State
62.3%
Although Meskill carried
Ella Grasso
the District easily in 1968,
Grasso is a good vote get-
ter. GOP candidate is
Richard Kilbourn.
Idaho
2
Orville Hansen
Marden Wells
52.6%
GOP Hansen is a first-
termer and the margin
was close in 1968.
-2-
FROM: Murray Chotiner
Democratic
State
District
Incumbent
Candidate
%
Notes
Indiana
4
Ross Adair
Edward Roush
51.4%
Democratic nominee
Roush is a former member
of Congress. The vote was
close in 1968.
Indiana
8
Roger Zion
David Huber
54.4%
Zion is a two-termer and
the percentage is
marginal.
Indiana
10
David Dennis
Philip Sharp
53.9%
Dennis is a one-termer
and the percentage is
marginal.
Iowa
1
Fred Schwengel
Edward
53%
Schwengel had primary
Mezvinsky
opposition and the per-
centage is marginal.
Iowa
4
John Kyl
Roger Blobaum
53.9%
The percentage is
marginal.
Kansas
1.
Keith Sebelius
Billy Jellison
51.5%
Sebelius is a first-
termer and the percentage
is marginal.
Minnesota
7
Odin Langen
51.2%
The percentage is
marginal.
Nebraska
2
Vacant
John Hlavacek
55.2%
GOP candidate is John
(Cunningham)
McCollister. The District
is 58% Democratic and
Cunningham forces are un-
happy over his defeat in
the primary.
-3-
FROM: Murray Chotiner
Democratic
State
District
Incumbent
Candidate
%
Notes
New Mexico
1
Manuel Lujan, Jr.
Fabian Chavez,
52.8%
Chavez narrowly missed
Jr.
being elected Governor
in the Cargo '68 race;
Chavez received 49.8% of
the vote.
New Mexico
2
Ed Foreman
Harold Runnels
50.5%
Foreman is a two-termer
and the percentage of
victory was razor thin.
North Dakota
2
Vacant
51.9%
This is a marginal
(Kleppe)
District.
Ohio - - No determination has been made on how these races will be affected by the
present turmoil in the State.
Wisconsin
1
Henry Schadeberg
50.9%
The GOP margin is
paper thin.
INCUMBENT VACATING - VULNERABLE
GOP
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
Percentage
Notes
Maryland
6th
J. Glenn Beall
Not determined
53.0
Beall leaving seat. Demo-
crats are strong with a go
candidate.
South Carolina
2nd
Albert Watson
Floyd D. Spence
57.6
School issue casting shado
over Republican chances.
Tennessee
3rd
William Brock
Not determined
57.0
Primary situation will mak
this a tough seat to hold
without Brock
South Dakota
2nd
E. Y. Berry
Fred Brady
59.3
Turmoil in party in state.
South Dakota
1st
Ben Reifel
Dexter Gunderson
58.0
Reifel is retiring, and the
Republican statewide ticket
is not too strong.
3
INCUMBENT HELD - VULNERABLE
GOP
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
Percentage
Notes
Kentucky
3rd
William Cowger
William Cowger
55.9
Cowger may have trouble
holding his usual Negro
supporters.
Virginia
2nd
G. Wm.
G. Wm. Whitehurst 54.2
This Norfolk House seat
Whitehurst
has many Negroes, and
Fitzpatrick will have Henr
Howell helping him.
4
LONG SHOT GAINS
GOP
State
District
Incumbent
GOP Nominee
Percentage
Notes
North Carolina
6th
Richardson Preyer Clifton Barham
46.4
A shift our way in Nort
Carolina could make the
difference in several He
races.
Oklahoma
4th
Tom Steed
Jay Wilkinson
46.4
An attractive candidate
a will to win, coupled V
good organization.
West Virginia
1st
Pat Hollohan
Den Doll
46.1
Former Arch Moore sea
Virginia
3rd
David Satterfield
Jay Wilkinson
?
39.7
Conservative-Republican
area. We have come V.
close before
New Jersey
3rd
James Howard
Bill Dowd
42.2
Strong candidate with re
feel for politics - will 1
Democrats sweat.
5
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Governors
FROM: Murray Chotiner
VULNERABLE GOP GOVERNOR RACES
State
GOP Nominee
Democrat Nominee
Notes
Alaska
Incumbent
Probably former
Bitter GOP primary contest
Keith Miller
Gov. William Egan
between Miller and Congressman
Pollock. Delay in pipeline hurting
GOP chances.
Ohio
Roger Cloud
John Gilligen
A determination has not been made
at this time whether the race will
be affected adversely by the turmoil
there.
Oregon
Incumbent
Robert Straub
State administration adversely
Tom McCall
affected by economic conditions.
Pennsylvania
Lt. Governor
Milton Shapp
Heavy Democratic statewide vote.
Ray Broderick
Vermont
Incumbent
Davis has a bitter primary contest
Deane Davis
with Lt. Gov. Tom Hayes which may
affect the final outcome.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 16, 1970
watch Ga. closely
TO:
Bob Haldeman
after primary
FROM:
Harry Dent ASD
SUBJECT: Governor Races Worthy of Campaign Contributions
In the 19 states I am monitoring, there are four states
worthy of consideration for out-of-state campaign con-
tributions. They are in this order of importance:
South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
Maryland needs money, but I see no possibility of win-
ning that race under the present circumstances. We
should win in Nevada, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Florida.
We have no opposition to Wallace in Alabama; and al-
though Arkansas will be close, the last thing Rockefeller
needs is money.
no money now
South Dakota: Governor Frank Farrar is in
trouble. His race is important because his successor
speakas
could appoint a successor to Senator Mundt. If the
etc
Democrat wins, this would strengthen the hand of Senator
cranking
McGovern in trying to take both House seats next time
because the GOP is South Dakota is in disarray and we
have both Republican Congressmen retiring this year.
Texas: This state is important because Paul
hold
hold for
for
Eggers very much needs money in view of a cancellation
of a big pledge by Sam Wylie. As you can see from the
polls
Texas polls, Eggers has a chance to win this big electoral
vote state because of the weakness of Governor Smith.
Thus, Texas is important for its electoral vote in 1972;
and a Republican Governor for the first time would be
able to help us line up better candidates for Congres-
sional seats in 1972.
Tennessee: Here we have another possible
Governorship gain. Currently, the Republicans are
battling in a primary. If Maxey Jarman wins, he has
waite
plenty of money. However, if any of the other candidates
should win we might need to help them. Tennessee is
important with its electoral votes and the possibility
of getting one or more new Congressional seats in 1972,
since they have control of the State House of Repre-
sentatives now by a one vote margin.
South Carolina: Congressman Albert Watson is
facing a close uphill battle with Lt. Governor John West.
Watson needs money. However, it may not be possible
for him to win in view of current school problems in
the state unless, of course, the school problems anger
the population enough for them to vote for the more
10 now
conservative candidate. South Carolina has some im-
portance from the standpoint of the Wallace problem in
watch closely
1972. We are trying to hold Watson's Congressional
seat this year, and we have the potential in 1972 of
picking up Congressman John McMillan's seat because he
should be through by that time.
Maryland: I would not put Maryland in the
money category but it is worthy of discussion. Stan
No
Blair is running and needs money but I see no possi-
bility that he can win against Governor Mandel who has
done well in handling the riots at the University of
Maryland and has $750,000 bankrolled for the campaign.
HOW THEY SEE THE HOUSE
AND SENATE RACES
SP
GENERAL ELECTION - NOVEMBER 3, 1970
probable close races
U. S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
1970 congressional elections
(103 Districts)
STATE
DIST.
INCUMBENT
% OF VOTE
% OF VOTE
Organization Voting Ratings
PARTY
TERMS
1968
1966
ACA
ADA
COPE
Alaska
AL
Pollock, Howard W. 18/
R
2
54.2
51.6
68
13
33
California
3
Moss, John E.
D
9
56.0
68.0
2
87
99
9
Edwards, Don 1/
D
4
56.6
59.1
4
100
100
15
McFall, John J.
D
7
53.8
57.4
3
53
98
17
Anderson, Glenn M.
D
1
50.7
--
18
87
100
28
Bell, Alphonzo
R
5
71.3
71.3
61
20
30
29
Brown, George E., Jr. 2/
D
4
52.3
51.7
8
87
98
34
Hanna, Richard T.
D
4
50.9
52.6
5
54
93
38
Tunney, John V. 20/
D
3
62.7
55.6
9
80
91
Colorado
1
Rogers, Byron G.
D
10
45.7³/
56.0
8
40
94
3
Evans, Frank E.
D
3
52.1
51.7
11
80
91
4
Aspinall, Wayne N.
D
11
54.7
58.6
11
13
80
Connecticut
2
Vacant⁴
-
-
--
--
--
--
--
4
Weicker, Lowell p.21/
R
1
51.4
--
41
40
70
6
Meskill, Thomas J. 19/
R
2
62.3
48.95/
73
13
48
Delaware
AL
Roth, William V., Jr. 22/
R
2
58.7
55.8
82
7
18
Florida
4
Chappell, Bill, Jr.
D
1
52.8
--
93
7
10
7
Haley, James Andrew
D
9
55.0
68.4
93
7
10
Idaho
1
McClure, James A.
R
2
59.4
51.8
91
7
10
2
Hansen, Orval
R
1
52.6
--
35
7
60
Illinois
3
Murphy, William T. 1/
D
6
54.0
52.0
4
47
99
21
Gray, Kenneth J.
D
8
54.1
56.2
10
47
89
23
Shipley, George E.
D
6
54.0
56.4
25
40
89
Indiana
2
Landgrebe, Earl F.
R
1
55.1
--
88
0
0
3
Brademas, John
D
6
52.2
51.2
4
73
100
4
Adair, E. Ross
R
10
51.4
60.2
89
13
13
5
Roudebush, Richard23/
R
5
63.0
55.8
94
7
7
8
Zion, Roger H.
R
2
54.5
52.6
88
7
24
9
Hamilton, Lee H.
D
3
54.4
54.5
19
53
83
10
Dennis, David W.
R
1
53.9
--
81
0
10
11
Jacobs, Andrew, Jr.
D
3
53.1
50.9
6
80
100
Iowa
1
Schwengel, Fred
R
7*
53.0
51.3
65
40
39
4
Kyl, John
R
5*
53.9
51.7
88
13
18
Kansas
1
Sebelius, Keith G.
R
1
51.5
--
86
0
11
3
Winn, Larry, Jr.
R
2
62.8
52.9
84
0
13
Louisiana
2
Boggs, Hale
D
13*
51.2
67.9
7
27
79
Maryland
5
Hogan, Laurence
R
1
52.7
--
65
20
30
6
Beall, J. Glenn, Jr.8/
R
1
53.0
**
47
20
70
3
STATE
DIST.
INCUMBENT
% OF VOTE
% OF VOTE
Organization Voting Ratings
PARTY
TERMS
1968
1966
ACA
ADA
COPE
Massachusetts
3
Philbin, Philip J.
D
14
47.8
7/
71.0
10
47
95
6
Harrington, Michael
D
1
52.4
--
22
100
100
9
McCormack, John W. 1/
D
22
82.9
(6)
--
--
--
12
Keith, Hastings
R
6
(6)
51.9
63
33
31
Michigan
2
Esch, Marvin L.
R
2
54.3
50.7
44
53
50
Minnesota
3
MacGregor, Clark
R
5
64.8
65.4
70
27
25
5
Fraser, Donald M.
D
4
57.5
59.7
2
100
98
6
Zwach, John M.
R
2
56.2
51.4
72
20
46
7
Langen, Odin
R
6
51.2
63.2
87
0
6
Missouri**
2
Symington, James W.
D
1
50.5 (D)
--
7
73
100
6
Hull, W. R., Jr.
D
8
54.4 (D)
56.8
60
13
42
10
Burlison, Bill D.
D
1
46.6 (D)
--
41
53
70
Montana
1
Olsen, Arnold
D
5
53.6
50.8
7
73
95
2
Melcher, John 10/
D
1
50.9
--
29
78
75
Nebraska
1
Denney, Robert V.
R
2
54.1
50.9
92
0
5
2
Cunningham, Glenn C.
11/
R
7
55.2
64.1
79
0
29
New Jersey
3
Howard, James J.
D
3
57.8
53.1
5
80
97
4
Thompson, Frank, Jr.
D
8
53.4
56.5
5
93
100
6
Vacant 12/
-
-
--
--
--
--
--
8
Roe, Robert 13/
D
1
50.4
--
29
75
100
9
Helstoski, Henry
D
3
49.8
14/
45.3
6
93
100
New Mexico
1
Lujan, Manuel, Jr.
R
1
52.8
..
76
13
44
2
Foreman, Ed 15/
R
2*
50.5
:
96
7
10
New York
3
Wolff, Lester L.
D
3
50.6 (D)
24
80
89
5
Lowenstein, Allard K.
D
1
44.0 (D)
20
100
100
16
Murphy, John M.
D
4
44.5 (D)
4
43
98
17
Koch, Edward I.
D
1
51.1 (D)
18
100
100
22
Scheuer, James H.
D
3
68.9 (D)
7
100
100
25
Ottinger, Richard L. 24/
D
3
51.5 (D)
22
100
94
27
McKneally, Martin B.
R
1
43.7 (R)
38
20
60
28
Fish, Hamilton, Jr.
R
1
45.9 (R)
29
33
80
29
Button, Daniel E.
R
2
56.5 (R)
30
73
87
34
Vacant
-
-
--
--
--
--
35
Hanley, James M.
D
3
48.9 (D)
8
67
97
39
McCarthy, Richard 0.2/
D
3
55.4 (D)
11
100
86
North Carolina
3
Henderson, David N.
D
5
54.0
(6)
64
7
24
4
Galifianakis, Nick
D
2
51.5
46.4
56
7
39
6
Preyer, Richardson
D
1
53.6
--
25
27
60
7
Lennon, Alton A.
D
7
(6)
(6)
78
7
13
8
Ruth, Earl B.
R
1
51.2
--
82
0
0
10
Broyhill, James T.
R
4
54.8
46.5
90
0
6
11
Taylor, Roy A.
D
6
57.1
52.8
64
13
24
North Dakota
2
Kleppe, Thomas S. 8/
R
2
49.9
16/
51.9
82
7
22
Ohio
1
Taft, Robert, Jr. 25/
R
3*
67.2
54.6
66
33
36
19
Kirwan, Michael J. 1/
D
17
69.7
72.5
7
27
99
4
STATE
DIST.
INCUMBENT
% OF VOTE
% OF VOTE
Organization Voting Ratings
PARTY
TERMS
1968
1966
ACA
ADA
COPE
Ohio
22
Vanik, Charles A.
D
8
54.7
44.4
12
87
97
23
Minshall, William E.
R
8
52.0
64.2
87
7
13
Oklahoma
2
Edmondson, Ed
D
9
54.9
52.9
8
33
84
4
Steed, Tom
D
11
53.6
58.4
27
13
67
Pennsylvania
19
Goodling, George A.
R
4*
57.7
51.7
91
0
5
South Dakota
1
Reifel, Ben 1/
R
5
58.0
66.7
68
0
15
2
Berry, E. Y. 1/
R
10
59.3
60.5
88
0
5
Tennessee
3
Brock, William E. 8/
R
4
57.0
64.4
89
7
7
Texas
7
Bush, George H. 26/
R
2
(6)
57.1
78
7
5
Utah
1
Burton, Laurence J.
R
4
68.1
66.5
83
0
14
2
Lloyd, Sherman P.
R
3*
61.6
61.3
77
13
12
Virginia
2
Whitehurst, G. William
R
1
54.2
**
67
7
30
3
Satterfield, David E.
D
3
60.3
(6)
89
0
6
7
Marsh, John 0. 1/
D
4
54.4
59.3
87
0
6
Washington
3
Hansen, Julia B.
D
6
56.8
65.1
64
67
98
Wisconsin
1
Schadeberg, Henry C.
R
4*
50.9
51.0
94
13
16
7
Obey, David R. 17/
D
1
51.5
--
20
92
100
Wyoming
AL
Wold, John⁸/
R
1
62.7
--
69
7
22
1/Not seeking re-election
2/Sought nomination to U.S. Senate; defeated in primary; not seeking re-election to House seat
3/Three-way race in which opponents received 41.5% and 12.8%
4/Rep. William L. St. Onge (D) died May 1
Republican candidate elected by plurality vote instead of majority vote
6/No opposition in general election
7/Three-way race in which opponents received 27.7% and 24.5%
8/To seek nomination/election to U.S. Senate
9/Rep. Michael J. Harrington (D) elected September 30, 1969, to fill vacancy created by death of Rep. William H. Bates (R)
10/Rep. John Melcher (D) elected June 24, 1969, to replace former Rep. James Battin (R), now federal judge
11/Rep. Cunningham defeated for renomination in May 12, 1970 primary by John Y. McCollister (R)
12/Vacancy created by resignation of former Rep. William T. Cahill (R), now Governor
13/Rep. Robert A. Roe (D) elected November 4, 1969, to replace former Rep. Charles S. Joelson (D), now Superior Court judge
Five-way race in which nearest opponent received 48.6%
15/Former Representative of Texas, one term, 1963-1964. Again elected November 5, 1968. ACA and COPE's cumulative ratings cover voting
record both terms
Three-way race in which opponents received 48.7% and 1.4%
17/Rep. David R. Obey (D) elected April 1, 1969, to replace former Rep. Melvin Laird (R) now Secretary of Defense
18/Rep. Howard W. Pollock, (R-AL) will seek Republican nomination for Governor of Alaska against incumbent Governor Miller (R)
19/Rep. Thomas J. Meskill (R) received Republican State Convention nomination for Governor of Connecticut. He may face primary.
20/Rep. John V. Tunney (D) received Democratic nomination to run for the U.S. Senate from California
21/Rep. Lowell P. Weicker (R) received Republican State Convention nomination for the U.S. Senate.
22/Rep. William V. Roth, Jr. (R) is the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate from Delaware.
23/Rep. Richard Roudebush (R) nominated by the GOP State Convention as the nominee for the U.S. Senate
24/Rep. Richard L. Ottinger (D) received the Democratic nomination to run for the U.S. Senate
25/Rep. Robert Taft, Jr. (R) received Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate in Ohio
26/Rep. George H. Bush (R) received Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate in Texas
5
probable close races
U. S. SENATE
1970 congressional elections
(21 Races)
% OF
ORGANIZATION
BEGAN SENATE
STATE
INCUMBENT
PARTY
VOTE
VOTING RATINGS
CANDIDATES
SERVICE
1964
1970 ELECTIONS
ACA
ADA
COPE
Alaska
STEVENS, Theodore F. 1/
R
Dec. 24, 1968
--
17
28
56
Primary August 25
R: Theodore F. Stevens
D: Joe Josephson
Fritz Singer
California
MURPHY, George
R
Jan. 1, 1965
51.5
81
11
18
R: George Murphy
D: John V. Tunney
Connecticut
DODD, Thomas J.2/
D
Jan. 3, 1959
64.7
21
56
88
R. Primary 8/12: 8/
Weicker, Lupton
D. Primary 8/19:
Donahue, Marcus, Duffey
Delaware
WILLIAMS, John J.3/
R
Jan. 3, 1947
51.7
92
22
8
R: William V. Roth, Jr.
D: Jacob W. Zimmerman
Florida
HOLLAND, Spessard L.³/
D
Sept. 25, 1946
64.0
64
6
17
Primary September 8
R: William C. Cramer
G. Harrold Carswell
D: Fred Schultz
Lawton Chiles
Robert Haverfield
C. Farris Bryant
Illinois
SMITH, Ralph T.4/
R
Sept. 18, 1969
--
57
29
50
R: Ralph T. Smith
D: Adlai E. Stevenson III
Indiana
HARTKE, Vance
D
Jan. 3, 1959
54.3
17
100
90
R: Richard Roudebush
D: Vance Hartke
Michigan
HART, Philip A.
D
Jan. 3, 1959
64.4
1
100
100
Primary August 4
R: Mrs. George Romney
Robert J. Huber
D: Philip A. Hart
Minnesota
McCARTHY, Eugene J.3/
D
Jan. 3, 1959
60.3
2
83
99
Primary September 15
R: Clark MacGregor
D: Hubert H. Humphrey
New Jersey
WILLIAMS, Harrison A., Jr.
D
Jan. 3, 1959
61.9
5
94
99
R: Nelson G. Gross
D: Harrison A. Williams, Jr.
New Mexico
MONTOYA, Joseph M.
D
Nov. 4, 1964
54.7
10
72
93
R: Anderson Carter
D: Joseph M. Montoya
New York
GOODELL, Charles E.5/
R
Sept. 12, 1968
--
10
83
21
R: Charles E. Goodell
D: Richard L. Ottinger
North Dakota
BURDICK, Quentin N.
D
Aug. 8, 1960
57.6
17
83
94
Primary September 1
R: Thomas Kleppe
D: Quentin N. Burdick
6
% OF
ORGANIZATION
STATE
BEGAN SENATE
PARTY
CANDIDATES
INCUMBENT
VOTE
SERVICE
VOTING RATINGS
1970 ELECTIONS
1964
ACA
ADA
COPE
Ohio
YOUNG, Stephen
D
Jan. 3, 1959
50.2
15
94
95
R: Robert Taft, Jr.
D: Howard M. Metzenbaum
Tennessee
GORE, Albert
D
Jan. 3, 1953
53.6
20
61
78
Primary August 6
R: William E. Brock
Tex Ritter
D: Albert Gore
Hadley Crockett
Texas
YARBOROUGH, Ralph w.6/
D
April 29, 1957
56.2
8
78
91
R: George Bush
D: Lloyd M. Bentsen
Utah
MOSS, Frank E.
D
Jan. 3, 1959
57.3
8
83
93
Primary September 8
R: Laurence Burton
Byron R. Rampton
D: Frank E. Moss
Vermont
PROUTY, Winston L.
R
Jan. 3, 1959
53.5
52
39
46
Primary September 8
R: Winston L. Prouty
D: Philip H. Hoff
Fiore Bove
William H. Meyer
Virginia
BYRD, Harry F., Jr.7/
D
Nov. 12, 1965
53.3
81
11
11
Primary July 14
R: Darrell Branstetter
Kenneth M. Haggarty
D: George Rawlings
Milton Colvin
Clive L. DuVal
Wyoming
McGEE, Gale W.
D
Jan. 3, 1959
54.0
4
39
86
Primary August 18
R: John Wold
Art Linde
D: Gale W. McGee
D. P. "Mike" Svilar
1/Sen. Theodore F. Stevens (R) appointed to fill vacancy created by death Dec. 12, 1968 of Sen. E. L. Bartlett (D). Subject to election in 1970 for
the two-year remainder of term and in 1972 for full six-year term
Announced June 12 he will not seek or accept Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate in 1970
3/Will not seek re-election in 1970
4/Sen. Ralph T. Smith (R) appointed September 17 to fill unexpired term of the late Sen. Dirksen. Subject to election in 1970 for four-year re-
mainder of term
5/Sen. Charles Goodell (R) appointed to fill unexpired term of late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy (D) beginning September 12, 1968 and ending January
1, 1971. Subject to election in 1970 to full six-year term
6/Sen. Yarborough (D) lost in Texas primary May 2, 1970 to Lloyd M. Bentsen (D) for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate
7/Sen. Harry F. Byrd, Jr. (D) appointed to his father's seat November 12, 1965. Elected November 8, 1966 for the four-year remainder of six-year
term beginning January 10, 1967. Subject to election in 1970 to full six-year term. Sen. Byrd has announced he will not seek the Democratic
nomination to the U.S. Senate, but will run as an Independent
8/ Lowell Weicker endorsed at Republican convention; John Lupton received more than 20% of convention vote so Republicans will have
primary August 12. Alphonsus Donahue endorsed at Democratic convention; Edward Marcus and Joseph Duffey received more than 20%
of convention vote so Democrats will have primary August 19.
7
This publication lists the House and Senate races which have
been judged to be close, according to political data gathered
from Congressional Quarterly, Roll Call, National Journal,
political columnists, the national Democratic and Republican
committees, the American Medical Political Action Committee,
the Business-Industry Political Action Committee, residents
of the congressional districts involved, and miscellaneous
other sources.
The information is subject to change as political conditions
change-and will be reflected in future editions.
1-5 copies-minimum charge
$1.00
6-99 copies
.17 each
100-999 copies
.13 each
Larger quantity prices upon request
Order from:
Chamber of Commerce of the United States
1615 H Street, N. W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
-
END NOTES
ACA ratings for House members are cumulative for veteran members of the House, covering the individual Representative's
voting record since 1957, or since the date of his first term served if that date comes after 1957, and continuing through
the First Session of the 91st Congress.
ACA ratings for Senators are cumulative, covering the individual Senator's voting record since 1955, or since the date of his first
term served if that date comes after 1955, and continuing through the First Session of the 91st Congress.
ADA ratings for House and Senate members are based on votes cast on ADA-selected issues during the First Session of the 91st
Congress.
COPE's ratings for House and Senate members are cumulative, calculated from AFL-CIO voting records of the individual
Representative or Senator since 1947, or since his first year in the House or Senate, continuous through the First Session
of the 91st Congress.
* *All terms served are consecutive except those marked with an asterisk (*)
Redistricted since the 1968 elections. In states that have redistricted since the last election, the % of vote for 1968 and 1966
is the percentage of the congressional vote cast in the new district for the PARTY of the present incumbent. It does not
represent the percentage by which the incumbent won previous elections.
Listing of some close House and Senate races is based on 55% or less margin over opponent.
All percentages are from Republican Congressional Committee because of availability, reliability and comprehensiveness.
Mail to:
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE OF THE UNITED STATES
1615 H STREET,N.W.
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006
Please send
copies of How They See the House and Senate Races ( 2188)
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TITLE
FIRM OR ORGANIZATION
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Enclosed is a check for $
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United States.
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
OF THE 91st CONGRESS
DEMOCRATS-244
REPUBLICANS-188
WASHINGTON
VACANCIES-3
R-2
MONTANA
R-1
MAINE
D-5
NORTH DAKOTA
D-0
MINNESOTA
R-0
OREGON
R-0
R-2
D-2
D-2
D-0
R-5
VT.
R-2
IDAHO
R-2
D-3
D-2
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
WYOMING
R-15
D-0
R-2
N.
R-2
R-6
MICHIGAN
D-26
MASS.
R-4
D-0
CALIFORNIA
D-0
D-4
CONN.
D-8
NEVADA
R-1
R-12
IOWA
D-7
PENNSYLVANIA
R-0
UTAH
D-0
R-2 D-2
NEBRASKA
R-5
ILLINOIS
R-13
D-3
D-2
INDIANA
OHIO
R-0
D-14
V-1
R-3
R-18
R-5
D-1
COLORADO
D-0
R-12
MD
R-1
R-2
R-7
D-6
W.VA.L.
D-9
MISSOURI
D-11
D.C.
D-0
V-1
D-0
R-17
R-1
KANSAS
V-1
D-4
R-0
R-5
R-4
D-21
D-3
R-5
R-1
R-3
D-5
D-5
D-0
KENTUCKY
D-4
VIRGINIA
D-4
D-9
ARIZONA
N. CAROLINA
NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE
R-4
R-4
TEXAS
ARKANSAS
R-2
D-5
D-7
R-2
R-1
S.
CAROLINA
D-1
R-2
D-4
ALABAMA
D-3
GEORGIA
R-1
D-0
D-5
R-3
R-2
R-0
D-5
D-8
LOUISIANA
D-5
R-3
R-0
MISSISSIPPI
D-20
FLORIDA
D-8
R-1
D-0
R-3
D-9
ALASKA
Prepared by
HAWAII
R-0
Public Affairs Department
D-2
All 435 Members of the House of
National Association of Manufacturers
Representatives are up for election
Washington, D.C.
in 1970.
June 1970
The House of Representatives of the 91st Congress
ALABAMA
CALIFORNIA (cont'd)
ILLINOIS (cont'd)
LOUISIANA
MINNESOTA
NEW MEXICO
NORTH DAKOTA
PENN. (cont'd)
TEXAS (cont'd)
1 J. Edwards
36 B. Wilson
5 Kluczynski
1 Hebert
1 Quie
1 *Lujan
1 M. Andrews
15 F. Rooney
16 White
2 *Dickinson
37 Van Deerlin
6 Vacancy
2 *H. Boggs
2 A. Nelsen
2 *Foreman
2 *Kleppe
16 Eshleman
17 0. Burleson
3 G. Andrews
38 Tunney
7 Annunzio
3 Caffery
3 MacGregor
17 Schneebeli
18 R. Price
4 Nichols
8 Rostenkowski
4 Waggonner
4 Karth
NEW YORK
OHIO
18 Corbett
19 Mahon
COLORADO
5 Flowers
9 Yates
5 Passman
5 Fraser
1 *Pike
1 Taft
19 Goodling
20 Gonzalez
6 Buchanan
1 *B. Rogers
10 Collier
6 Rarick
6 Zwach
2 Grover
2 Clancy
20 Gaydos
21 Fisher
7 Bevill
2 Brotzman
11 Pucinski
7 E. Edwards
7 *Langen
3 *Wolff
3 Whalen
21 Dent
22 Casey
8 R. Jones
3 *F. Evans
12 McClory
8 S. Long
8 Blatnik
4 Wydler
4 McCulloch
22 Saylor
23 Kazen
4 *Aspinall
13 Crane
ALASKA
MAINE
MISSISSIPPI
5 *Lowenstein
5 Latta
23 A. Johnson
CONNECTICUT
14 Erlenborn
15 C. Reid
1 Abernethy
6 Halpern
24 Vigorito
UTAH
6 Harsha
AL *Pollock
1 Daddario
1 Kyros
7 Addabbo
7 C. Brown
25 Clark
1 L. Burton
ARIZONA
16 J. Anderson
2 Whitten
3 C. Griffin
8 Rosenthal
8 Betts
26 Morgan
2 Hathaway
2 Lloyd
2 Vacancy
1 Rhodes
3 *Giaimo
17 Arends
9 Delaney
9 Ashley
27 J. Fulton
18 Michel
4 Montgomery
VERMONT
MARYLAND
10 Celler
10 C. Miller
2 Udall
4 *Weicker
19 Railsback
5 Colmer
11 Stanton
RHODE ISLAND
5 Monagan
20 Findley
1 R. Morton
11 Brasco
AL Stafford
3 S. Steiger
MISSOURI
6 Meskill
12 Chisholm
12 Devine
1 St. Germain
2 C. Long
ARKANSAS
13 Mosher
VIRGINIA
21 *Gray
22 Springer
3 Garmatz
1 Clay
13 Podell
2 Tiernan
DELAWARE
1 Alexander
4 Fallon
2 *J. Symington
14 J. Rooney
14 *Ayres
1 Downing
2 Mills
AL Roth
23 *Shipley
5 *Hogan
15 Carey
15 Wylie
SOUTH CAROLINA
3 Sullivan
2 *Whitehurst
24 M. Price
3 Hammerschmidt
4 Randall
16 *J. Murphy
16 Bow
1 Rivers
3 Satterfield
FLORIDA
6 Beall
5 Bolling
17 *Koch
17 Ashbrook
4 D. Pryor
INDIANA
2 Watson
4 Abbitt
1 Sikes
7 Friedel
6 *W. Hull
18 Powell
18 Hays
5 *W. Daniel
8 Gude
3 Dorn
CALIFORNIA
2 Fuqua
1 Madden
7 D. Hall
19 *Farbstein
19 Kirwan
3 Bennett
2 Landgrebe
MASSACHUSETTS
8 Ichord
20 Ryan
20 Feighan
4 Mann
6 Poff
1 Don Clausen
3 Brademas
21 L. Stokes
5 Gettys
7 *Marsh
2 H. Johnson
4 Chappell
9 *Hungate
21 Scheuer
6 McMillan
8 W. Scott
3 J. Moss
5 Frey
4 *Adair
1 Conte
10 *B. Burlison
22 Gilbert
22 *Vanik
9 Wampler
6 Gibbons
5 Roudebush
2 Boland
MONTANA
23 Bingham
23 *Minshall
SOUTH DAKOTA
10 Joel Broyhill
4 Leggett
5 P. Burton
7 *Haley
6 Bray
3 *Philbin
24 Biaggi
24 Lukens
6 Mailliard
8 Cramer
7 Myers
4 Donohue
25 Ottinger
1 Reifel
WASHINGTON
1 *Olsen
OKLAHOMA
7 Cohelan
9 P. Rogers
8 Zion
5 Morse
2 Melcher
26 0. Reid
2 Berry
1 Pelly
8 G. Miller
10 *J. H. Burke
9 *Hamilton
6* Harrington
NEBRASKA
27 *McKneally
1 Belcher
TENNESSEE
2 Meeds
9 D. Edwards
11 Pepper
10 *Dennis
7 T. Macdonald
28 *Fish
2 *Edmondson
3 J. Hansen
10 Gubser
12 Fascell
11 *Jacobs
8 T. O'Neill
1 *Denney
29 Button
3 Albert
1 Quillen
4 May
9 McCormack
2 *Cunningham
GEORGIA
30 King
4 *Steed
11 McCloskey
2 Duncan
5 Foley
IOWA
12 Talcott
10 M. Heckler
3 Martin
31 McEwen
5 Jarman
3 Brock
6 Hicks
13 C. Teague
1 Hagan
2 M. O'Neal
1 *Schwengel
11 J. A. Burke
NEVADA
32 Pirnie
6 Camp
4 J. Evins
7 Adams
14 Waldie
2 Culver
12 Keith
33 Robison
5 *R. Fulton
3 Brinkley
3 Gross
AL Baring
34 *Hanley
OREGON
15 *McFall
6 W. Anderson
WEST VIRGINIA
4 Blackburn
4 *Kyl
MICHIGAN
16 Sisk
NEW HAMPSHIRE
35 Stratton
1 Wyatt
7 Blanton
1 *Mollohan
17 *G. Anderson
5 Fletcher Thompson
5 N. Smith
1 Conyers
1 Wyman
36 Horton
2 Ullman
8*E. Jones
2 Staggers
18 R. Mathias
6 Flynt
6 Mayne
2 *Esch
2 Cleveland
37 Conable
3 E. Green
9 Kuykendall
3 Slack
7 Davis
19 Holifield
7 Scherle
8 Stuckey
3 Garry Brown
38 Hastings
4 Dellenback
4 K. Hechler
20 H. A. Smith
9 Landrum
KANSAS
4 Hutchinson
NEW JERSEY
39 *R. McCarthy
TEXAS
5 Kee
21 Hawkins
5 G. Ford
1 Hunt
40 H. P. Smith
PENNSYLVANIA
1 Patman
10 Stephens
41 Dulski
WISCONSIN
22 Corman
1 *Sebelius
6 Chamberlain
2 *Sandman
1 Barrett
2 Dowdy
23 Del Clawson
HAWAII
2 Mize
7 Riegle
3 Howard
NORTH CAROLINA
2 Nix
3 Collins
1 *Schadeberg
24 Rousselot
AL Matsunaga
3 Winn
8 Harvey
4 *Frank Thompson
3 James Byrne
4 Roberts
2 Kastenmeier
25 Wiggins
AL Mink
4 Shriver
9 Vander Jagt
5 Frelinghuysen
1 W. Jones
4 Eilberg
5 Cabell
3 V. Thomson
26 Rees
5 Skubitz
10 Cederberg
6 Vacancy
2 Fountain
5 W. Green
6 0. Teague
4 Zablocki
27 B. Goldwater, Jr.
IDAHO
KENTUCKY
11 Ruppe
7 Widnall
3 Henderson
6 *Yatron
7 Bush
5 Reuss
28 A. Bell
1 McClure
12 O'Hara
Roe
4 *Galifianakis
7 L. Williams
8 Eckhardt
6 W. Steiger
29 *George Brown
2 0. Hansen
1 Stubblefield
13 Diggs
9 *Helstoski
5 *Mizell
8 'Biester
9 J. Brooks
7 *Obey
30 Roybal
2 Natcher
14 Nedzi
10 Rodino
6 *L. R. Preyer
9 Watkins
10 Pickle
8 John W. Byrnes
31 C. Wilson
ILLINOIS
3 Cowger
15 W. Ford
11 Minish
7 Lennon
10 McDade
11 Poage
9 G. Davis
32 Hosmer
1 Dawson
4 Snyder
16 Dingell
12 Dwyer
8 *Ruth
11 Flood
12 Wright
10 O'Konski
33 Pettis
2 Mikva
5 Carter
17 M. Griffiths
13 Gallagher
9 C. Jonas
12 Whalley
13 Purcell
34 Hanna
3 *W. Murphy
6 Watts
18 Broomfield
14 D. Daniels
10 *James Broyhill
13 Coughlin
14 J. Young
WYOMING
35 Schmitz
4 Derwinski
7 Perkins
19 J. McDonald
15 *Patten
11 Taylor
14 Moorhead
15 de la Garza
AL Wold
* Denotes "marginal district." Member was elected by less than 55 per cent of the total vote.
THE GOVERNORS OF THE STATES
DEMOCRATS — 18
REPUBLICANS - 32
WASHINGTON
MONTANA
W. PETERSON, JR.
EVANS
NORTH DAKOTA
DAVIS
CURTIS
F. ANDERSON
GUY
Le
VANDER
McCALL
SARGENT
i
KNOWLES
FARRAR
ROCKEFELLER
LICHT
SAMUELSON
MILLIKEN
R.1.
DEMPSEY
HATHAWAY
N.
UTAH
ILLINOIS
SHAFER
CAHILL
RAY
election 1973
TIEMANN
INDIANA
RHODES
R. PETERSON
laxalt
MISSOURI
OGILVIE
MANDEL
RAMPTON
MOORE
LOVE
election
election HOLTON'S
DOCKING
1971
VIRGINIA
REAGAN
HEARNES
KENTUCKNN
N.
CAROLINATT
ELLINGTON
J.
WILLIAMS
BARTLETT
JOHN B. ROCKEFFLLER
".
McNAIR
CARGO
WILLIAMS
election
1971
BREWER
MADDOX
LOUISIANA
P. SMITH
MISSISSIPPI
McKEITHEN
KIRK
K. MILLER
LEGEND
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
HAWAII
BURNS
up for election in 1970
Prepared by
up for election in 1972
Public Affairs Department
National Association of Manufacturers
up for election in odd year
Washington, D.C.
January 1970
THE SENATE OF THE 91st CONGRESS
DEMOCRATS-57
REPUBLICANS-43
WASHINGTON
Magnuson
MONTANA
MAINE
JACKSON
NORTH DAKOTA
Aiken
MINNESOTA
MANSFIELD
PROUTY
OREGON
MUSKIP
BURDICK
Metcalf
?
Smith
McCARTHY
VT.1
M. Young
Hatfield
IDAHO
Mondale
KENNEDY
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
N.H.
E
Packwood
Church
WYOMING
PROXMIRE
MICHIGAN
MASS
Brooke
McGovern
CALIFORNIA
Nelson
PENNSYLVANIAVIS GOODELI
CONN
PASTORE
NEVADA
L. Jordan
HART
McGEE
Mundt
R.I.
Pell
IOWA
Griffin
DODD
UTAH
Hansen
NEBRASKA
wold
Miller
ILLINOIS
SCOTT
Receipt
Curtis
INDIANA
OHIO
H.
WILLIAMS
Bible
H. Hughes
S. YOUNG
Schweiker
Case
COLORADO
MD
Raggio CANNON
HRUSKA
Percy
THARTKE
MISSOURI
Saxbe
W.VAL
J. WILLIAMS
MOSS
D.C.Y
SMITH
Bayh
Boggs
Bennett
KANSAS
MURPHY
Burton
Dominick
Randolph R. BYRD H. Spong BYRD
TYDINGS
Pearson
Cranston
Allott
YMINGTON
Cooper
C. Mathias
Dole
KENTUCKY
VIRGINIA
Cook
ARIZONA
Lagle
N. CAROLINA
NEW MEXICO
Ervin
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE
TEXAS
ARKANSAS
B
Jordan
GORE
Baker
FANNIN
Harris
MONTOYA
McClellan
S.
CAROLINA
ALABAMA
Goldwater
GEORGIA
Thurmond
Bellmon
Anderson
Fulbright
Hollings
carter
STENNIS
Allen
Talmadge
YARBOROUGH
LOUISIANA
Eastland
Sparkman
Russell
Tower
MISSISSIPPI
Long
FLORIDA
Gravel
Ellender
STEVENS
Gurney
GNVTIOH
ALASKA
LEGEND
HAWAII
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
FONG
NAME IN TYPE up for election in 1970
NAME IN TYPE
Inouye
Name in Type
up for election in 1972
Name in Type
Prepared by
Name in Type
up for election in 1974
Name in Type
Public Affairs Department
National Association of Manufacturers
Washington, D.C.
January 1970
FROM KING FEATURES SYNDICATE, 235 EAST 45TH ST., NEW YORK,N. Y. 10017
FOR RELEASE MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1970
Precede
(Name of paper)'s columnist, Kevin Phillips,
says chicanos in Texas are ignoring Democratic
primary.
BY KEVIN P. PHILLIPS
LIBERALS HOLD BALANCE OF POWER IN TEXAS
WASHINGTON--Last autumn, Linwood Holton became the first Repub=
lican Governor of Virginia since Reconstruction days, and it is
with this example in mind that the Texas GOP, out to topple its
own state's Democratic establishment this year, has invited Holton
to keynote the September 15 State Republican Convention in Fort
Worth.
But middle-of-the-roader Holton's election is a dubious prece-
dent for the Lone Star State. Whereas, the Virginia Republican faced a
moderate Democrat who had defeated the conservative establishment
nominee (as well as a full-fledged liberal) in the primary, the
Texas GOP gubernatorial and Senate nominees must fight the candidates
of the state Democratic establishment.
This is an important difference. In Virginia, conservative
Democrats provided most of the horsepower of the 1969 GOP victory.
Contrary to Holton's claims, liberal support was spotty. For example,
although Holton won a majority among Richmond Negroes who saw his
election as the final nail in the conservative Democratic coffin, his
black vote in Norfolk, Portsmouth, Danville, and Lynchburg was a mere
10-20 per cent, and although he enjoyed the endorsement of the state
AFL-CIO, the blue-collar wards of unionized Norfolk and Newport News
opposed him by lopsided margins.
Texas Republicans have a larger need for liberal votes. Because
t he Texas GOP cannot tap the usual conservative Democratic realign-
ment current, their candidates must -- while retaining a basic mod-
erate conservative ideology -- seek support from the state's liberal
blacks, chicanos, and labor unions, who share Republican desire for a
conservative-liberal realignment of the two parties, but who have
been unable to bring it about by winning Democratic primaries.
GOP gubernatorial candidate Paul Eggers is looking in this
direction. Two years ago, in his first race against incumbent
Preston Smith, he garnered a strong 43 per cent of the vote. His
base was urban-suburban -- the counties including Dallas, Houston,
Fort Worth, Odessa-Midland gave him a 40,000 lead -- while Smith
amassed his
fic} in the countryside (especially Wallace coun-
ties), Negro precincts, and Mexican-American concentrations.
(MORE)
FOR RELEASE MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1970
PAGE 2
BY KEVIN P. PHILLIPS
XX concentrations.
This year, Eggers is expected to do better. Polls indicate
that he is holding his urban support, although Smith remains strong
in the countryside. More important, Texas liberals, who in 1968 went
down the Democratic line against Nixon, are up in arms, recognizing
that victory for the local Democratic establishment would put it in
the saddle for the foreseeable future.
Republican Senate candidate Bush's opportunity is less clear.
Back in 1964, he drew 44 per cent of the vote against liberal Senator
Ralph Yarborough, but the Senator lost his May primary to conserva-
tive challenger Lloyd Bentsen. As a result, Bush may not be able to
hold all of the support he won six years ago, His basic strength,
like that of other Republicans in Texas, is centered in the metropoli-
tan areas where he can expect to improve his 1964 showing. But his
rural backing is likely to dip, especially in parts OS segregationist
East Texas where Barry Goldwater helped the ticket in 1964, where
Bentsen notched solid primary victories this spring, and where
school desegregation suits recently filed by the Justice Department
have aroused anti-GOP rancor.
Therefore, both Bush and Eggers have good cause to court -- as
they are -- the labor vote and the large Mexican-American vote
(15-20 per cent of the statewide total, concentrated in El Paso, San
Antonio, Corpus Christi, and the Rio Grande Valley).
Despite allegations to the contrary, the GOP has not been able
to marshal this electorate against past conservative Democratic candi-
dates. For example, the two most Democratic legislative districts in
Texas are the 48th and 59th in the Laredo-Rio Grande area. President
Nixon won 22 per cent and 18 per cent of their ballots in 1968; Paul
Eggers 24 per cent and 22 per cent in the same year, and Senator
John Tower 26 per cent and 24 per cent in 1966. In these districts,
at least, the "liberal" vote for Eggers and Tower is a myth (and
most of their support probably came from the Anglo minority).
This year could be different. Republicans looking to realign
conservative Democrats into the GOP -- the so-called Southern
strategy -- recognize that they need to construct a temporary liberal
alliance to topple the Texas Democratic establishment and facilitate
such realignment. (President Nixon's 1972 prospects in Texas would
also be enhanced.)
Across the Latin crescent of South Texas, many chicanos regis-
tered this year in their own "El Partido de la Raza Unita" and
ignored the Democratic primary. Liberal Senator Yarborough, who
earlier injured Bentsen among Latins by saying that his was "a family
of land frauds, a family of wetback exploiters," has not yet en-
dorsed the primary victor. The Texas Teamsters have already
endorsed Republican Bush. The liberal Texas Observer continually
attacks Bentsen, and Northern Democratic realignment seekers like
John Kenneth Galbraith urge his defeat.
But the Republican battle is uphill. The party needs a large
liberal vote to win, and its size remains in doubt.
Distributed by King Features Syndicate
GS
Re: Vermont Senate (Addendum)
The turnout in the September 8 primary is a bad sign for
Prouty. According to newspaper reports, the vote cast was as follows:
GOP Senate - 39,000
Dem Senate - 33,000
This represents unprecedented Democratic strength. In
comparison, the previous turnouts of this decade were:
1962 - 30,000 R, 10,000 D (Senate)
1964 - 44,000 R, 17,000 D (Senate)
1966 - 37,000 R, 11,000 D (Congress)
1968 - (do not have statistics)
Analysis of these figures suggests: A) Vermont's population
build-up (writers, antique dealers, artsy-craftsies etc) is strengthening
the Democrats; B) Democratic strength is surging in Vermont this year; and
c) despite Prouty's relative strength in what is left of small-town Vermont,
he seems headed for defeat this year.
Re: Maine
In 1964, Senator Muskie won re-election by a vote of
253,000 to 127,000. This success was considerably swollen by a)
heavy straight Democratic voting by Republicans in protest against
the Goldwater candidacy, and b) the staying at home of 10-20% of
the Yankee Republican electorate who couldn't bear the thought of
choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Under these circumstances - and despite a steady registration
trend to the Democrats - Muskie is unlikely to do so well as in 1964.
The enclosed xerox of a mid-August poll of Yankees in Hancock County,
Maine, shows Muskie down from his 1964 lead over the GOP candidate.
The reason: a combination of trending away from Muskie (mostly by
persons who cast protest ballots in 1964) and heavier voting by
Yankee Republicans who stayed home in 1964. This is not a big trend,
but it is a factor nevertheless.
Muskie's 66% of the vote will probably slip to the 60% range
because of the above trends and a lighter-than-presidential year turnout
in the Catholic milltowns that fuel Maine Democratic pluralities. However
there seems little doubt that Muskie will be re-elected handily.
It would not seem wise for the Administration to look like it
is too interested in the Maine race. GOP candidate Bishop should be
given personal ammunition against Muskie, so that when the results ar:
totaled and Muskie wins, say, by 91,000 votes and 61% of the total,
nobody is embarrassed by too much intervention but at the same time,
there will be grounds to spread the word that the bloom is off Muskie's
appeal.
The enclosed poll shows that the "Southern Strategy" is very
unpopular among Maine's Yankee Republicans, 55% of whom think that the
Administration pays too much attention to the South. The Machiasport
situation and Bath shipyards contract are particularly embarassing.
If any oil free trade zones are to be announced shortly, it would be
useful to do so before the election.
Another useful idea might be a "Northern New England Regional
Commission" like that for Appalachia. Industrial obsolescence and
redundancy is cruel in upper New England - towns with 10-20% unemployment
are common - and such a move would be well-received. It would also
provide a rebuttal to the "Southern Strategy" innuendo, and also help
bolster 1972 prospects in the one part of New England that is winnable.
Prouty and Bishop would be bolstered.
Some kind of ethnic appeal or cultural recognition should
be extended to upper New England's French-Canadians; that would really
be hitting the Democrats from the rear.
1970 Maine Election Questionnaire
1. For whom do you plan to vote in November's Senate election? (Circle one.)
45%
50%
Dowthnow - -5%
A) Edmund Muskie (Democrat) B) Neil Bishop (Republican)
2. For whom did you vote when Edmund Muskie last ran for the Senate
in 1964? (Circle one.)
38%
32%
3020
A) For Muskie B) For his Republican opponent C) Don't know/Didn't vote *
3. Whom did you support for President in 1968? (Circle one.)
70%
23%
A) Richard Nixon (Republican) B) Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)
C) George Wallace (Independent), Don't know, Didn't Vote - 720
4. whom did you support for President in 1960? (Circle one.)
A) Richard Nixon (Republican) B) John F. Kennedy (Democrat)
C) Don't know/Didn't vote
5. Do you plan to vote for President Nixon in 1972? (Circle one.)
50'n
17%
332
A) Yes B) No C) Don't know
6. is you think that the Nixon Administration pays too much attention
LO the South and not enough to New England? (Circle one.)
55% 33% 12%
A) Yes B) No C) Don't know
mary Yaskee Republicins and Maine
didnet vote in 1964 because at
distaste for CER Goldwater and Johnson
poll at +2 random Co. -selected (Down Enst) Maine
Yorkees, Hanwock 10-15.
Auf
Re: Agnew Scheduling
Apart from any local organizational vicissitudes, the following is
a general suggestion of chilly ideological climates viz a foray by the
Vice-President.
Probably unproductive: Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont,
Minnesota, Hawaii, Rhode Island
Dubious: Connecticut, New York, Michigan, Oregon, Washington
In general, Agnew should be used in places where the Administration
is trying to tap a Southern-type or blue-collar Democratic trend to the GOP.
Thus the ruling out of the first seven.
Specific states where Agnew would help Senate candidates are Indiana
(to counter Roudebush's increasing irritation of conservatives); Texas (to
bolster Bush's rightist appeal); Illinois (to bolster Smith among Chicago
area law and order ethnics); Maryland (to bolster Beall in Baltimore area,
especially Baltimore County); California and Florida; and conceivably New
Jersey if he can be zeroed in on the Catholic industrial/backlash areas.
Agnew would seem useful, but for less specific reasons, in the Rocky
Mountain states, North Dakota and Alaska - useful more for publicity
purposes/media coverage of local campaign.
He would be useful in Missouri if Danforth looks like he has a
prayer; Ohio is questionable, depending on Taft's feelings; and Delaware
would not be negatively affected.
THE ELECTIONS OF '70 & '72
"The Real Majority" by Scammon and Wattenburg contains a
credible and workable blueprint for our defeat in 1972. Its three
hundred pages contain a realistic cogent strategy for a liberal
Democrat in 1972. However, the presentation of that strategy
points up a counter-strategy which Republicans are going to have
to adopt if they are not to lose the historic opportunity we have
had for the last five years.
We can no longer count on our Democratic friends to
cooperate in their own demise -- as they have in recent year S.
Liberals are waking up all over America. Columnists like Breslin
and Harriet Van Horne and Mankiewicz, peaceniks like Sam Brown,
politicians like HHH, Muskie and Lindsay are clearly moving on a
new tough course -- a course outlined in this book. They have
begun talking of law and order; they have ceased apologizing for
student militants and black radicals; they are silent on bussing.
We are no longer going to win the race for Middle America by default.
The Democrats are moving to win back their white collar defectors
and they are going about it the Wattenburg way.
Attached is a comprehensive review of their analysis and
strategy for Democratic victory. Appended is the outline of a
counter-strategy we should follow in the 1970 elections.
THE HEART OF THE BOOK
Given the President's ability to wind down the war in 1972
and relatively stabilize the economy, Presidential elections
throughout the coming decade will turn on the "Social Issue". First
discovered by Goldwater and Wallace, the Social Issue is now the
issue on which Middle America will vote if one candidate is on
the wrong side as Humphrey was in 1968. This social issue embraces
drugs, demonstrations, pornography, disruptions, "kidlash",
permissiveness, violence, riots, crime. The voters will not tolerate
"a liberal". on these issues, and will vote against him on this issue
alone as victories for hard-liners Daley in Chicago, Maier in Milwaukee,
Stenvig in Minneapolis and Yorty in Los Angeles clearly demonstrated.
It is "in the center of American politics that victory lies" and
polls conclusively show that the center of American politics today wants
2
tougher administrators on campus, a crackdown on crime, pornography
and drugs. If the Democrats do not move into that center position on
the "Social Issue", then "goodbye Democrats".
"It-is the judgment of the authors that the manner in
which the Democratic Party handles the Social Issue will
largely determine how potent a political force the party
will be in America in the years to come. 11
THE RISE OF CONSERVATISM
From 1963 to 1969 the number of those identifying themselves
as "conservative" has risen from 46 to 51 percent while those
identifying as "liberal" has nose-dived from 49 to 33 percent.
Summer 1969 (Gallup)
(The Way Americans Identify Themselves)
Conservative Moderate Conservative Moderate Liberal No Opinion
Liberal
23
28
18
15
16
In any normal election the moderate conservative (Republican)
should have an advantage over the moderate liberal (Democrat). However,
what this simple analysis fails to take into consideration is that when
individuals consider themselves "conservative", it is "conservative" on
the social issue Americans will not abide a "liberal" on the social
issue. At the same time, however, polls show Americans clearly
favor medicare, aid to cities, anti-poverty efforts, aid to education --
issues traditionally defined as "liberal". How do we explain the
dichotomy. Say the authors:
"
the attitudinal center of American politics today
involves progressivism on economic issues and toughness
on the "Social Issue".
The party that can hold this center will win the Presidency.
THE SOUTH
"When the Democratic vote goes from 72 percent in 1944 to
31 percent in 1967, something has happened, and it has been some-
thing tidal
The Democrats in the South were hurt by being
3
perceived (correctly) as a pro-black national party, but they were
also hurt by the other nonracial aspects of the Social Issue that had
become identified with liberal Democrats: soft on crime, "kidlash",
morals and disruption
The villains in Agnew's tirade were almost
exclusively white (kids) -but throughout the South bumper stickers
blossomed reading "Spiro is my hero", and a Southern politician was
quoted as saying he was voting for Agnew in 1972 and if that meant
voting for Nixon, so be it
In no southern state are there enough
Presidential Democrats to put together a statewide majority
Although the divorce may not be final the question now is which of
the two suitors the South will accept: "Wallaceite or Republican".
CRUCIAL QUESTION FOR '70s
"The key election fact of the seventies is that Democrats,
by carrying non-southern states of Quadcali (California plus the
Northeast Quadrant from Wisconsin to Massachusetts*) can win
national elections without the South, although it is more difficult than
it used to be. Assuming that Republicans stay near the center, the
electoral question of the seventies is whether the Democrats will be
able to cope with the Social Issue electoral forces at work in the
society and, by coping, hold together the FDR Coalition and build
upon it.
"As this book is being written in the early part of the year 1970
the votes of the unyoung, unpoor, unblack Quadcalians are still very
much up for grabs. The machinist's wife in Dayton may decide to
leave the Democratic reservation in 1972 and vote for Nixon or
Wallace or their ideological descendants. If she thinks that Democrats
feel that she isn't scared of crime but that she's really a bigot, if
she thinks that Democrats feel that the police are Fascist pigs, and that
the Black Panthers and the Weathermen are just poor, misunderstood,
picked-upon kids, if she thinks that Democrats are for the hip cultures
and that she, the machinist's wife, is not only a bigot but a square,
then goodbye, lady and goodbye Democrats. 11
*(Quadcali consists of the Northeast Quadrant of the country
from Wisconsin to Massachusetts including California; the authors
say it is the key to victory in Presidential elections; and they dump
generously on Border State Strategies and "Sun Belts" etc. This
is the weakest part of the book. It is an effort to contrast their
approach with the Phillips Approach by suggesting Phillips wants
to trade Illinois for Alabama, or New Jersey for Mississippi, which
is nonsense. Basically, there is much in common between the two
strategies more than Scammon and Wattenburg would care to admit. )
4
ON LOW-KEY & "LOCAL" CAMPAIGNING
"And how many people can be assembled to hear or even
glimpse a candidate in the flesh on a given day? Twenty-five thousand?
Fifty thousand? A hundred thousand? Two hundred and fifty thousand?
A two minute clip on each of the three network news shows during the
campaign will yield the candidate an audience of many tens of million
Americans! Hubert Humphrey or Richard Nixon will be seen by more
residents of New Jersey if he says something fairly noteworthy in
Oregon than if he says something banal in Trenton, Montclair, Newark,
Camden, and Tenafly all in the same day. 11
What about the shot in the arm given party workers by the
personal appearance?
"There is probably some limited truth to this, but again one
must remember that far more party workers throughout the nation
are enthused seeing their candidate in an effective two-minute spot
on a news-broadcast appearance on television than can be enthused by
a candidate's visit to Weehawken, Union City, Bergen and Short Hills
11
"The people in New Jersey, like the rest of Americans will be
judging their Presidential choices largely on the basis of national
television, national magazines, national columnists, and national
reporters appearing in their local newspapers and largely on national
issues and national images. 11
"LIBERALISM AND BUSSING!"
"All of this represents the beginnings of a strategy for liberals
in the seventies. Beware of the 'liberal' label but do not be despondent
about the liberal program
Beware of the Social Issue. It cuts
deep and must be approached on little cat feet. There is learning as
well as leading to do. There can be no pandering to disruption or
crime; the public is not buying the notion that there are not bad boys,
only bad environments
11
REPUBLICAN AWARENESS
"There can be no question that a good deal of Republican
gardening will be done on the Social Issue. When Vice President
Agnew says:
5
'The rank-and-file Democrat in this country does
not share the philosophy of permissiveness expressed
by the best publicized moral and intellectual leaders of
our society. He read with disgust all the rave reviews
the press gives the latest dirty movie or dirty book
I
then it is clear that the Republicans are aware of this strategy. "
FORMULAS FOR SUCCESS
"This is the nature of centrism. Democrats must heal the
wound of the Social Issue. Republicans must prove that they are
the party of Middle America and not of the fat cats. 11
A FOURTH PARTY
"Furthermore, unlike the Wallace situation, an extreme left
party would take almost all its votes from one party -- the Democratic
Party. If it ever got strong, then, it could only be a "spoiler" ensuring
Republican victories. As a weak party, however, an extreme left
party might be helpful to Democrats, by getting the crazies out of
the tent, decreasing the identification of 'Democrats' as radicals. "
LINDSAY & CHARISMA
Charisma counts in an election, but it only makes the difference
when both candidates have acceptable positions on the Social Issue.
The Lindsay charisma did little for him when we consider that three
of five New Yorkers voted against returning him in the mayoralty in
the most liberal city in America. Had the "oppositionist" vote not
been divided, even the wholly uncharismatic figure of Mario Procacino
would have cleaned up the floor with him.
Lindsay, in effect, scored a "victory defeat".
-
"What other phrase better describes the results of an
election in which a politician with national aspirations pulls
only one in four votes of the 'white workingman', or if one
chooses to look at Lindsay specifically as a potential
Democratic candidate, what kind of recommendation is it to
say that he received fewer than half the Jewish votes the
last time out. 11
6
As of today, if Lindsay were nominated as a Democrat, RN
would crush him. If he were nominated as a Republican, he could
conceivably bring about the election of George Wallace -- so much
for Big John.
MYTHS & ASSERTIONS
1. The authors proceed to explode one popular press myth
after another in this volume.
Myth No. 1: The vote in the primaries and general election
in 1968 was a vote "against Vietnam".
McCarthy, the "dove" in New Hampshire, only got 18% of the
total vote in that state and a University of Michigan survey showed
that 60% of the McCarthy votes were from hawks dissatisfied that
LBJ had not done enough to end the war. In addition, at the time
of New Hampshire, by 51 to 40 percent Americans did not want to stop
the bombing; by 44 to 36 percent Americans favored an invasion of
North Vietnam. Candidates and press may have been talking
about it, but Vietnam was not the voting issue of 1968.
The contention that the McCarthy vote in the Wisconsin Primary
was an anti-war vote seems implausible on the following grounds:
That same day an anti-war amendment in dovish Madison was defeated
58-42; a law-and-order pro-LBJ Mayor (Maier) won over a liberal
anti-war candidate 86-14; LBJ was still leading McCarthy two-to-one
nationally; and Republicans who would later vote for "hawkish" RN
crossed over by tens of thousands to vote for Eugene.
Finally, in the last Wisconsin full page ads of RN, LBJ and
McCarthy, in the Wisconsin primary, not a single one mentioned the
word Vietnam -- though the media played it as the key to the election.
Myth No. 2: The Conventions were rigged the popular choices
Rockefeller and McCarthy denied nomination by the bosses.
Nonsense - Nixon and Humphrey were far and away the
popular choices of their parties (RN over Rocky 60-23; HHH over
McCarthy 58-38) and thus the only Democratic choices. Rigged
conventions are exceptional. The only convention in the last twenty-five
years where the candidate with the widest support in his party was not
nominated was Goldwater in 1964.
7
Myth No. 3: By forging a coalition of the young, the poor and
the black and the intellectuals, the Democrats can put together a new
and winning coalition. Scammon and Wattenburg believe this a
prescription for disaster. First, the young and the poor and the black
vote is the lowest percentage: of any groups in America. Secondly, the
young and the poor are hardly monolithic in voting patterns. A poor
white from the Midwest was a likely Nixon voter; a poor white in the
South a Wallace voter, and a poor black in the cities a Humphrey
voter. Neither are the young monolithic in their voting patterns.
More than any other group to vote, they tend to vote like their parents.
In addition, as a group 21-29 year olds are more hawkish than the
over-50s; Wallace did his best among the 21-29 group.
As for the intellectuals, those with college degrees are more
likely to vote Republican than Democratic. If you are talking about
Ph. D. S the Democratic vote is greater here but the .number of
voters is so miniscule as to be irrelevant.
True, blacks are solidly Democratic -- but it is also
true that among races black voting percentages are the lowest--
"
the 'drop-off' alone in the Wallace vote in
the last six weeks of the campaign was about equal
to the total number of black votes cast in 1968. "
We must face facts, say the authors: the average voter is
unpoor, unyoung, unblack, unintellectual. The average voter is a
47-year-old housewife from Dayton, Ohio, whose brother-in-law
is a cop and who is herself married to a machinist. Even if the voting age is
dropped to 18 the average voter is still well over forty years of age.
"You can knock the 'liberal intellectuals' out of the
Democratic coalition, and you've lost the front bumper;
knock out the black vote, and you've lost the fenders and
the back seat; but knock out labor, Middle America, or
the unpoor, unyoung, unblack, and you've lost the engine,
and the car won't run. This is an unpleasant fact to some,
but fact it is. "
Further, it is interesting to note that in 1968, 22 percent
of the population could be considered "poor"; by 1972 that figure will
be down to 15 percent; further:
8
"
of the poorest dozen states in the nation, six went
for Nixon, five went for Wallace and only one for Humphrey.
The richest state in the nation Connecticut--went for HHH. 11
(However, it is true that the pool of non-voting black
represents a great plus for Democrats if they can get them registered
and voting, since unlike the poor and young -- blacks do vote in blocs
Democratic blocs.
"Six in seven voters are over thirty. Nine out of ten are unpoor,
nine out of ten are white. 11
'PACKAGING NIXON
Myth No. 4: The "packaging" of RN won him the election.
Ridiculous. All candidates are packaged to one degree or another.
But Stenvig won in Minneapolic with $3,600 spent. While HHH was
saying he was running poorly in the polls because of RN's TV,
Muskie was running 17 points ahead of Agnew in polls --yet Agnew
had the same TV exposure as RN, and Muskie as Humphrey. "Voters
are not nitwits. 11 RN was ahead because he
11
was more closely attuned to the temper of a
larger segment of the electorate than was his opposition. He
was a man for the season. That may sound simplistic; it is
simplistic and accurate
The feelings that Nixon
capitalized on were not part of a Southern Strategy or a
Border State Strategy -- they were part of a national
strategy that was attuned to the national malaise we have
discussed earlier
It may be said in fact that Agnewism
as a social thought won the election for Nixon, while Agnew,
the individual, almost lost it for him. 11
Myth No. 5: The Kennedy victory in Gary, uniting hard hats
and blacks, showed how formidable he would be in a general election.
Again no such thing, contend the authors. RFK won the blacks and the
union workers; but he did not have to compete against either Wallace or
HHH, each of whom would have had tremendous drawing among one
or the other of these groups.
"The authors also go to lengths to show how RFK moved to
the Center throughout the primaries by abandoning his early frenzied
campaigning pace, by clipping his hair, speaking in low-keyed voice,
9
accusing McCarthy of seeking to have blacks from Watts forcibly integrated
in Orange County, talking to Indiana's concern about riots, war and
Communism. Say the authors, Bobby was not selling out, but
simply addressing himself to concerns of a country where half
the women are afraid to go out at night.
WALLACE '72
In 1972 Wallace should, as he did in 1968, take seven million
votes from Nixon and three million from the Democrat.
PRIMER FOR DEMS
Chapter Twenty of the book offers Democrats a Primer on
precisely how to phrase their appeal to the voters. Example:
Do Not Say: 'Well, I don't agree with the Students
for a Democratic Society !when they invade a college
president's office, but I can understand their deep sense
of frustration. I
Do Say: 'When students break thelaw they will be
be treated as lawbreakers. 111
Example:
The Democrats made a disasterous error in saying "Law
and order is a code word for racism. 11 This is a losing position on the
Social Issue they should say "I am for civil rights and against
crime. " They should not link the two.
ON CANDIDATES
A Presidential aspirant must above all be a "take charge guy".
Humphrey would have been better off had he come down on one side
or the other on Vietnam -- rather than leaving the impression of
being wishy-washy.
10
CONCLUSION
"To know that the lady in Dayton is afraid to walk the
streets alone at night, to know that she has a mixed view
about blacks and civil rights because before moving to the
suburbs she lived in a neighborhood that became all black,
to know that her brother-in-law is a policeman, to know that
she does not have the money to move if her new neighborhood
deteriorates, to know that she is deeply distressed that her
son is going to a community college where LSD was found on
the campus - to know all this is the beginning of contemporary
political wisdom."
11
THE CAMPAIGN OF 1970
Given this Scammon-Wattenburg thesis which is
right on the mark for Democrats we are in serious danger of
being driven back to our minority party posture. Our needs seem
crystal clear.
1. We cannot allow the Democrats to get back on the right
side of the Social Issue. This they are attempting to do right now
with tough talk, etc. They have to be branded and the brand must
stick as permissivists, as indulgent of students and black rioters,
as soft on crime. This can be accomplished with their record in the
last Congress. But for us to contest with them primarily on the
Economic Issue -- Big Spenders, etc. as the major assault seems
not a prescription for success. Republicans for forty years have
been tarring Democratic Congresses with "Big Spender" labels,
and Democrats have been winning those Congresses, 1o, these same
Forty Years.
The focus should be on tarring them with "ultra-liberalism"
and "radicalism" -- especially on the Social Issue where we are
strong and they are weak.
2. Where are the swing voters in 1970? We must assume
left-wing Democrats are going for their Democratic Candidates and
Republicans are going for Republicans, come hell or high water.
The swing voters are thus Democrats law and order Democrats,
conservatives on the "Social Issue", but "progressive" on domestic
issues. This is the Wattenburg thesis and it is basically correct.
How to conduct ourselves then.
Tar the Democratic Leadership specifically with the "radical"
label on social policy; tar them as well with the "obstructionist"
label on the President's programs for reforming society, for getting
America moving; tar them as for bussing -- and against our crime
control legislation.
Frankly, we should go after the "Daley Democrats 11 but
we cannot get these voters by using rehashed Republican arguments
or stale Republican rhetoric.
12
"Big Spenders" is a theme that 'might work, will work, with
our Republicans we are using it in all our GOP literature but
will it have any real bite with the union guy to whom big spending may
mean the medicare for his mom or old man? (Foot-dragging Congress
does not seem charged with much electricity, either.)
3. Scammon contends that a hard-line on riots etc. by
Democrats may anger "liberals", but liberals have no place to go
anyhow except the Democratic Party. Just so, regular Republicans
have no place to go in 1970 (no Wallace) but the GOP. So, let's
go straight after the Daley Democrats.
4. We should win these Democrats to the Presidential
banner by contending that RN is a progressive on domestic policy
blocked by "obstructionists" in the left-wing leadership of the
Democratic Party; that RN is a hard-liner on crime, drugs and
pornography, whose legislation is blocked by "ultraliberals" in the
Senate who care so much about the rights of the criminal that they
forget about the rights of society; that the President is a man
trying with veto after veto to hold down the cost of living but is
being thwarted by radicals and wild spenders who would, given the
chance, create the kind of inflation that would put Indonesia in its
heyday in the shade; that the President is a man in foreign policy
who is moving toward peace with honor but whose efforts are being
attacked and undercut by unilateral disarmers and isolationists
who think peace lies in an abject retreat from the world and the
dismantling of the Army, Navy and Air Force. This is said strong
but these would be the ways we could best appeal to the patriotic,
hard-line pro-medicare Democrats who are the missing element
in the Grand New Party.
5. There is no conflict between garnering national publicity
and helping local Senate candidates the two are thoroughly complimen-
tary.
The Democrats see Seammon's book are only now
coming around to recognize what we knew in 1966 and 1968 that a
strong statement in Oregon is more effective in getting to voters in
New Jersey than a banal statement in Trenton, Tenafly, Newark and
Elizabeth. The way to help the Senatorial Candidate is to praise
him to the skies, fine but to hammer the national Democratic
Leadership in a manner that will keep our big press corps excited
and with us; that will get network time every night if possible with
our message; and so help every Republican Senatorial Candidate
while we are helping the local one.
13
All we have to do to forfeit that national publicity is run
around talking about "cattle and oil" in Casper, as has been suggested
already. We ought to remember also, that when we give up the
television time on the networks someone else, namely our
Democratic friends, gets it.
A hard-hitting tough campaign can help bring home Senators
and Congressmen who live or die on a few national percentage points.
6. Clearly, from the Scammon book, we should tar the
liberal Democrats as being not only the party of "bugout" but the
party of bussing, the advocates of "compulsory integration, 11 the
party whose last Attorney General banged down the door in Chicago
in order to testify on behalf of the Chicago Eight, the leadership
that let this country turn into the porno capital of the world, and is
blocking RN's effort to change that. Also, the Democratic Leadership
has altered its historic foreign policy position to kow-tow to student
radicals who bully-ragged those same leaders in the streets of
Chicago, etc. The Democratic Leadership should be portrayed as
selling out to the crazies in their own ranks -- and selling out the
interests and views of the good patriotic Democrats who number in
the millions. We 'might even say LBJ was destroyed by the
"ultra-liberals" in his own party.
7. We should stay on the offensive, taken the "out" (and
offensive) position even though we are the "ins" (and defensive) by
hammering at the "liberal Eastern Establishment" that is resp onsible
for what has happened to America, the "Establishment" that is
frustrating our efforts to right the wrongs in Society, the Establishment
whose wards are tearing up the colleges, the Establishment that
indulges rioters, etc. (Of course, said in better phraseology, but
the need to be on the offensive, to act as "outs" seems vital.)
8. The Economic Issue. To get into a debate on whether or
not we are in a "recession" seems an utterly foolish idea -- since
the very discussion of "recession" is surely not going to help us
and since anyone who is hurt in the current economic situation is
not likely to be convined he is not being hurt by anybody's rhetoric.
Rather than debate whether or not the investors and brokers and
unemployed are being hurt, let's go after the Democratic radicals
whose wild schemes are frustrating our efforts to stop the rise
in prices. This is the Big Spender theme but in different rhetoric,
tougher rhetoric, equating the Democrats with the same kind of
ultraliberalism in spending that they follow on the Social Issue.
Call them ultra-liberals.
August 11, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE MIDDLE AMERICA GROUP
SUBJECT:
THE LABOR VOTE IN 1972
1. The Problem. At issue is the question whether our political
interests would be best served by attempting to court George Meany
and the leadership of the AFL-CIO with an eye toward receiving their
overt support for the President's re-election, or whether it would be
wiser to concentrate on winning the support of the union membership
by appealing directly to the worker over the heads of his union
leadership.
2. Meany's Position. There is no doubt that George Meany and
many of his colleagues in the leadership of the AFL-CIO are greatly
disturbed at the capture of the Democratic Party by peaceniks and
isolationists who ignore or discount the Soviet threat and who generally
favor allowing events to take their course in the world without regard
to America's strategic interests. Meany and Jay Lovestone understand
international Communism as only old-school trade unionists can.
These men are tough and they understand that we have enemies who are
tough. On foreign policy issues, the AFL-CIO leadership has always
been hard-line and in their support of a hard-line policy, bipartisan.
Were foreign policy the only issue at stake, Meany, et. al. would
certainly be right at home in RN's tent. However, more is involved.
Meany presides over a fragile empire the UAW and the Teamsters
have pulled out and represent a constant and powerful threat. His
members are restless and union discipline on issues not directly
related to the economics of employment is increasingly ineffective.
The median age of union membership is falling sharply, bringing into
the ranks men who have never known the tough times of union organizing
which created the elan so important to unity and power in the 1930s and
'40s. The union membership today does not have the class identity and
political solidarity which characterized the labor movement in the early
days or even in the difficult post-war period. The average worker no
longer regards his union as the instrument through which he can grab
a piece of the economic pie but as simply his bargaining agent to
ensure that the piece he has is proportionate to that enjoyed by others
similarly situated. He relates to his union on economic issues of
immediate personal concern: pay, benefits, conditions of employment.
- 2
His status as an employee, as a participant in the economic life of the
country, is taken for granted; he has security and only a serious
recession could change this. In terms of American pluralism, the
union is only one of many associational influences upon his life style
and political orientation.
Meany and the Old Guard have developed and sustained over the
years policies and alliances which are no longer relevant to a
significant portion of the rank and file. The national leadership is
wedded politically to the Democratic Party and philosophically to the
Welfare State. The latter represents the manifestation of a policy
commitment whose roots run deep in the history of the labor movement,
dating to the early days when democratic socialism was the political
orthodoxy of organized labor. Under the influence of the New Deal,
this philosophy mellowed into welfare statism, while politically the
leadership of the labor movement moved into the ranks of the Democratic
Party. On domestic issues, organized labor is camped on the left bank
of the American mainstream and has been for 40 years. This is not
some tactical encampment, but a strategic commitment.
To assume that Meany, et. al. could be brought into camp in 1972
presupposes that we are willing to change our domestic policy (i.e.,
strike to the left) or that Meany is willing to accept our domestic policy
(i.e., shift to the right). The latter assumption strikes me as
preposterous. The only viable course if we want to recruit Meany is
for the Administration to adopt a left-of-center domestic policy
compatible with his New Deal orientation. Foreign policy considera-
tions are not enough to bring him around; he has too much at stake on
the home front to allow his political allegiances to be determined by
foreign policy considerations.
3. Gains and Losses of Striking to the Left to Pick Up Meany. In
recent weeks, Meany has been particularly harsh in his attacks on our
economic policy as well as on our attitude toward the racial problem.
Presumably, it would be necessary to change both in order to win his
support in '72. This presupposes, of course, that (a) he is willing to
abandon his long-standing position as a power within the leadership of
the National Democratic Party and (b) that he can carry his colleagues
and the rank and file with him.
- 3 -
The political power of organized labor is exercised through COPE.
The funds it can contribute to campaign coffers and the resources it
can mobilize for voter registration are important political factors.
There is little evidence to sustain the thesis that organized labor can
"deliver" the labor vote, although it can certainly influence it (as we
witnessed in the closing days of the 1968 election when organized labor
concentrated rather successfully on bringing the Democratic faithful
back into the Humphrey camp after a serious flirtation with Wallace).
The question is whether Meany could deliver COPE to RN, or at least
neutralize its influence, as well as deliver the labor vote. The problem
here is that COPE would still want to support Democratic congressional
and senatorial candidates, which would mean pouring money into their
campaigns and registering Democratic voters in their districts and
states. The political implications of this activity for RN and for the
GOP are obvious.
Assuming Meany came over and assuming he could deliver at least
a significant portion of the labor vote for RN, if not for the GOP, what
price would we pay To the extent we had to adopt a higher profile on
the race question, we would pay a serious price in the South. To the
extent that we had to modify our economic policy, we would alienate our
traditional business support as well as risk failure in our fight against
inflation with the attendant political implications. To the extent we
endorsed new social welfare programs and accelerated social welfare
spending (which would mean a greater budget deficit), we would alienate
our conservative base within the GOP and encourage either a conserva-
tive revolt within the party or an exodys of conservative Republicans to
Wallace who, with an aroused South rallying to his banner, would once
again pose a formidable national political threat.
This estimate may be off-base and inaccurate on some points. But
I believe the evidence and common sense suggest that a systematic
effort by this Administration to win the support of George Meany in
1972 by a shift to the left on domestic policy is inherently risky; in
fact, the risks foresecable, if not inevitable, are perhaps as great as
the potential benefits. It would be a high risk effort, and in politics as
in the stock market one should not assume high risks unless the potential
gains are not only great, but cannot be realized at a lesser risk.
4 -
4. An Alternative Policy. This Administration has an opportunity
to win the support of a significant portion of the labor rank and file
without regard to the political disposition of the labor leadership by
pursuing a course which is substantially without political risk. By
concentrating on the ethnics and other blue collar workers, we have
an opportunity to win millions of new supporters for the President
and the Party. The ethnic and other blue collar workers are ripe
for the GOP. It is their jobs up for grabs as more blacks are
trained, their neighborhoods where racial tension is worst, their
families who are the victims of a high crime rate, their children who
are to be bussed, -- in short, they are the fellows who have borne
the burden and paid the price of eight years of social engineering by
the Democratic Party of which their union leaders are charter members.
On foreign policy, they are generally sympathetic to the President's
position; the ethnic particularly is sensitive to the Soviet threat, for
unlike our intellectuals they know about Hungary, the Berlin Wall,
Czechoslovakia, and Cuba.
In this regard, the union leadership is rather representative of the
union membership (the UAW may be an exception); but on domestic
issues there is an obvious estrangement. To the extent we move to win
Meany, to the same extent we inherit rather than exploit that estrange-
ment.
The gut issues -- crime, campus violence, inflation, school
integration -- are issues of overriding concern to these people and they
are issues on which we have, or could have, the initiative. We operate,
however, too often at cross-purposes, as when we adopt a "Philadelphia
Plan" while seeking "hard hat" support or ignore "Captive Nations Week"
while seeking support among the ethnics. We can survive such
inconsistencies, but we shouldn't add to them (as we appear to be doing
by playing both ends of the campus/student unrest issue). On the gut
issues we can reach the labor vote without assuming the risks inherent
in attempting to win the union leadership. A systematic, calculated
policy designed to exploit the issues of concern to Middle America could
result in a smashing sweep in 1972 for the President and for the Party.
5. But Don't Forget George. We ought to bear in mind that Wallace
is as strong today as he was in November of 1968. I doubt that there is
anything we could do to deprive him Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana, but we should consider taking the steps necessary to deprive
him Arkansas and Georgia and at every cost deny him access to the
Upper South and border states which we carried in 1968. If the events of
- 5
the past few weeks are any indication, we may be forced to fall back
to this primary consideration and devote our attention to recouping
our losses in order to keep what we had in 1968. I find it difficult to
discern where the electoral votes are to come from we are apparently
prepared to risk in the South. New York, Michigan, Massachusetts
certainly don't look encouraging -- with or without George Meany --
and Texas, which should be a target state certainly isn't a likely
target if we are in trouble in North Carolina and Florida, which all
the evidence suggests we may be.
Wallace has several aces up his sleeve. First, he is the only
candidate who can profit from a US defeat or disguised surrender in
Vietnam. Second, he is the candidate who has the most to gain from an
aroused public fed up with forced integration, disruption of the schools,
sustained campus violence, and general social disquietude. And third,
he has great appeal to the blue collar and ethnic worker based on his
ability to combine anti-communism, anti-establishmentarism and
economic populism all into a single well merchandized package, with
a dime's worth of difference on the race question as a kicker.
It would be a fatal mistake to sell George short. To the extent he
can muster sufficient evidence to sustain the charge that RN has
"betrayed" the South ("Strom, boy, you've been had"), he is a potent
political force in a key region of the country -- certainly we cannot
expect to win a national election without the South. And to the extent
he can broaden his appeal nationally -- e.g., has anyone studied
Warren, Michigan? -- he can play the spoiler for the Democrats, for
we will be the "ins" in 1972 and the existence of crime, campus violence,
inflation, racial tension, etc. will be our responsibility then (we can't
be talking about what we inherited, but only about what we accomplished).
We have to head George off at the pass before he corrals the ethnic
and the blue collar worker, and George Meany isn't going to be of much
help in this regard.
6. Conclusion. My estimate of the political prospects in 1972 is
essentially this: we have to hold the states we carried in 1968 with the
possible exception of New Jersey, and we need to add Texas and
hopefully Georgia and Arkansas. Anything else we get is a bonus, and
we shouldn't take risks to get a bonus.
- 6
To attempt to win the support of the union membership by seducing
the union leadership is the long way around to a goal that can be more
directly realized. By calculated exploitation of the gut issues, by a
slight shift in rhetorical emphasis, and by some programmatic
innovations, we can reach the blue collar and ethnic, while holding our
current strength.
We ought to knock down the myth that going after Meany is a viable
political strategy and get busy working out the details for going after
the blue collar and ethnic workers. It makes more sense.
T/H
TOM CHARLES HUSTON
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17, 1970
dis 0/19
Angry Ethnic Voices Decry
By JACK ROSENTHAL
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, June 16
-Voices of the white ethnic
working class rose in anger
at being ignored by govern-
ment and the press, anger at
being ridiculed by intellec-
tuals, anger at being ex-
ploited by right-wing reac-
tionaries like George Wal-
lace."
The occasion was an un-
usual conference of priests,
politicians and community
workers, one that some par-
ticipants believe may signal
the beginning of a major
social movement among 40
million people of European
descent in scores of older
Industrial cities in the North-
east and Middle West.
The hundreds of selected
participants, from most of
those cities, were called to-
gether by the Urban Task
Force of the United States
Catholic Conference. They
poured out their resentment
and discussed strategies for
self-help, like community or-
ganization and legislative ac-
tivity.
'Sick of Being Stereotyped'
"The ethnic American is
sick of being stereotyped as
a racist and dullard by phony
white liberals, pseudo black
militants and patronizing
buereaucrats," Barbara Mi-
The Rev. Paul Asciolla, center, editor of Chicago newspa
kulski, of the Southeast Com-
land councilman, and the Rev. Daniel Bogus of Detroit. I
munity Organization in Bal-
timore, said in a prepared
statement.
get," said Father Asciolla,
ing on the pride and streng
"He pays the bill for every
"is pejorative. We're por-
of various ethnic heritage
major government program
trayed either as racists or as
Monsignor Baroni, wide
and gets nothing or little in
violent hard-hats. And that's
the way of return. He him-
known in Washington f
self is the victim of class
just as wrong as the image
years of work in black COI
prejudice," she declared.
that all young people are
munities, believes that t
The Rev. Paul Asciolla,
like a minority of student
budding ethnic movement
editor of a Chicago news-
radicals."
wonderfully parallel to whe
Significance Is Assayed
black were a few years as
-my hunch is this is goit
To Msgr. Geno C. Baroni,
to move faster."
a principal organizer of the
Miss Mikulski, a your
conference, its lasting sig-
woman in red dwarfed by tl
nificance derives from the
black-suited figures of tl
priests sitting with her, W(
constructive activities the
appreciative laughter and a
conferees plan afterwards.
plause from the conferen
"Many ethnics are Catholic,
for her illustration of a sin
and the church, parish and
lar point.
laity have a role to play in
conquering the neglect of
An area containing bo
black and ethnic white hom
their communities," he said
in an interview.
was threatened by a ne
"George Wallace doesn't
highway in Baltimore, sl
said. Blacks protested fir
speak for these people," he
and it took time for ethn
asserted. "He only voices
their basic insecurity by be-
white protest to develop.
ing anti. What this confer-
"But now we're together
she said. "We don't ho
ence is saying is that there
are positive elements in that
hands and sing 'We Shi
Overcome.' We don't
insecurity which can be mar-
shaled against polarization
we're interacting socially a
of
societ"
cording to an affirmative
our
havior model. And we
Monsignor Baroni and oth-
er conferees described plans
still at the point where
have to meet on neutr
Msgr. Geno C. Baroni, con-
for a study group to develop
turf.
a social agenda for white
ference organizer, said eth-
urban ethnic groups. This is
"But we're working."
nic drive is where blacks
to include community organi-
TEXT OF STATEMENT
were a few years ago.
zation and economic develop-
Following is the text
ment similar to that done in
the statement presented
paper for Italian-Americans,
black communities in the
Miss Mikulski:
said, his voice rising through
mid-nineteen-sixties
America is not a meltir
the normally sedate nurses'
Another aspect will be re-
pot. It is a sizzling cauldr
lecture hall at aCtholic Uni-
gional conferences to share
for the ethnic American wl
versity: "What we have to
technical assistance in ob-
feels that he has been poli
do is get ourselves together
taining funds from govern-
cally courted and legally e
for something positive. If we
mental housing, health and
torted by both governme
don't, the right-wing reac-
other programs.
and private enterprise.
tionaries like George Wallace
Underlying the effort will
The ethnic American is sio
are going to take us over."
be an emphasis, also paral-
of being stereotyped as
"Nobody has done any-
leling past black trends,
racist and dullard by phor
thing for ethnics since Social
toward "ethnic power," build-
white liberals, pseudo blac
Security," he went on. "Yet
here they are being
blamed for white racism. But
they're not the people in the
executive suites who would
not hire a single Jew or
News Summary a
Negro for so long. The eth-
nics are just the people
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17, 197
whose own jobs are threat-
ened.
"That's why they are all
The Major Events of tl
reacting so spastically."
'Power Structure' Scored
International
rise in wag
Conference participants
South Vietnamese and Cambodian troops
speculation
were most emphatic in re-
entered the provincial capital of Kompong
named that
jecting the view that white
Speu yesterday and found that the enemy
consequence
ethnics are racist, a view
force they had expected to encounter had
actions. [1:
they described as an "intel-
fled. Although they had left the city, the
A postal
lectual élitist" stereotype.
enemy forces reportedly still held parts of
Nixon and
"The enemy is not the
Highway 4, the only access route between
blocked by
black man," Anthony Garo-
Pnompenh and the country's main ocean
sideration i
foli, a Cleveland City Coun-
port. [Page 1, Columns 2-3.]
version alte
cilman, said in an interview.
"It is the power structure
Three American news correspondents cap-
agreement
tured in Cambodia May 7 were released by
and has be
that plays off one group
Communist troops. The correspondents,
national pos
against the other."
"It's not that we are
Richard B. Dudman of the St. Louis Post-
A bipartis
10
against the black man get-
Dispatch, Elizabeth Pond of The Christian
duced a bill
ting his, but it's time we
Science Monitor and Michael D. Morrow of
to prohibit
starting getting ours too," he
Dispatch News Service, said they had re-
freedom of S
declared. "If the real needs of
ceived good treatment once their identities
be used aga
these people-for housing re-
had been established. [18:2-5.]
administrati
habilitation, for their elderly
An Israeli Army force crossed into Syria
students ag
-are not responded to by
government, there is going
and attacked two military objectives near
banned orde
to be a sharp move to the
Damascus. A bridge 24 miles south of
Vice Pres
right-even beyond Wal-
Damascus was struck and a military camp
Rhodes Jr.,
lace."
northeast of the capital city was shelled.
fellow appo
Frank Ferrone, who quit
An Israeli spokesman said the attack was in
commission
a $15,000-a-year job to be-
response to "increased aggression." by
strated that
come a community organizer
Syria. [1:4.]
ity, objectivi
in an Italian section of
Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, the Soviet
panel and C
Cleveland, described the at-
novelist, has criticized the detention of
Rhodes said
titude of the young resident
Zhores A. Medvedev, an outspoken critic of
this way:
the regime, in a mental hospital. Mr. Solz-
Metropoli
"All he knows is he's in a
henitsyn, who is also under an official
Kenneth
confused community. He
cloud, called the detention "a variant of
Hugh J. Add
sees his dad's $9,000 job in
the gas chamber." [1:4-5.]
ark's bitterl
jeopardy. His mother can't
West Germany's Ambassador to Brazil
runoff mayo
go downtown on a bus with-
becomes the
out being afraid of having
was released unharmed after the Govern-
her purse snatched. He can't
ment had met the kidnappers' demands to
Eastern Seal
go to a swimming pool with-
fly 40 political prisoners to freedom in Al-
was the larg
out it meaning a fight with
geria. The diplomat, Ehrefried von Holleben,
the city's hi
black kids. He can't afford
had been seized in a machinegun ambush
for Mr. Gibs
to go to college. If you
near his home in Rio de Janiero. [1:2.]
and fear. [1:
don't think that kid is angry,
Dr. Martin
you've got to be crazy.
National
House Speal
"And it's not antiblack.
Stringent new standards to determine if
asked House
The blacks don't know this.
young men can qualify for conscientious
Ford and Ser
They don't know where the
objector draft exemptions under Monday's
K. Javits to
white ethnic is coming from
Supreme Court decision were announced by
his trial for
in attitude. He wants what
the Selective Service System. Under the
pected to ope
he thinks they're getting-------
so they call him a racist."
standards the applicant must be oppsed to
The first
But such problems are
all wars and there must be no question of
Panthers ac
rarely reported by the na-
his sincerity. The belief must also be the
party membe
tional media, several con-
product of rigorous training." [1:1.]
The prosecu
ferees asserted in comments
In a televised speech to the nation at
of assuring t.
on the floor.
noon today, President Nixon is expected to
tion of seek
"The only attention we
begin an educational campaign to check the
the defendan
!p
New York Times
e
0
I
a 'Racist and Dullard' Image
field-then he is made fun of
because he likes the flag.
The ethnic American is
overtaxed and underserved at
every level of government.
He does not have fancy law-
yers or expensive lobbyists
getting him tax breaks on
his income. Being a home
owner, he shoulders the ris-
ing property taxes - the
major revenue source for the
municipalities in which he
lives. Yet he enjoys very lit-
tle from these unfair and
burdensome levies.
Because of restrictive eligi-
bility requirements linked
either to income or "target
areas," he gets no help from
Federal programs. If he
wants to buy in "the old
neighborhood,' he cannot get
an F.H.A. loan. One major
illness in his family will wipe
him out. When he needs a
nursing home for an elderly
parent, he finds that there
are none that he can afford,
nor is he eligible for any fi-
nancial assistance.
Gets Little School Aid
His children tend to go to
)
parochial schools which re-
ceive little in the way of gov-
ernment aid and for which
he carries an extra burden.
Photographs for The New York Times by MIKE LIEN
per for Italian-Americans, with Anthony Garofoli, left, Cleve-
There is a general decline of
community services for his
e said nothing had been done for ethnics since Social Security.
neighborhood, e.g. zoning, li-
braries, recreation programs,
sanitation, etc.
th militants and patronizing
social programs, he turns his
His income of $5,000 to
S.
bureaucrats. He pays the bill
anger to race-when he him-
$10,000 per year makes him
y
for every major government
self is the victim of class
"near poor." He is the vic-
or
program and gets nothing or
prejudice.
tim of both inflation and an-
little in the way of return.
He. has worked hard all his
ti-inflationary measures. He
e
Tricked by the political
life to become a "good
is the guy that is hurt by
Is
rhetoric of the illusionary
American"; he and his sons
layoffs; tight money that
funding for black-oriented
have fought on every battle-
chokes him with high inter-
est rates for installment buy-
to
ing and home improvements.
Manufacturers, with their
price fixing, shoddy merchan-
dise and exorbitant repair
bills, are gouging him to
e
death. When he complains
n
about costs, he is told that it
is the "high cost of labor"
e
that is to blame. Yet he
knows he is the "labor" and
that in terms of real dollars
he is going backwards.
is
The ethnic American also
W
feels unappreciated for the
e
contribution he makes to so-
ciety. He resents the way
the working class is looked
sa
down upon. In many in-
stances he is treated like
di
the machine he operates or
the pencil he pushes. He is
tired of being treated like
an object of production.
The public and private in-
frustrated by their lack of
response to his needs. At
to
present he feels powerless in
si
his daily dealings with and
en
efforts to change them.
he
Unfortunately, because of
st
old prejudices and new
tv
fears, anger is generated
against other minority groups
VC
rather than those who have
pl
power. What is needed is an
vi
alliance of white and black,
cl
white collar, blue collar and
tl
no collar based on mutual
u:
need, interdependence and
tl
respect, an alliance to de-
Barbara Mikulski of Southeast Community Organization in
velop the strategy for new
P
kind of community organi-
S
Baltimore
said,
"
the ethnic American pays Government
zation and political partici-
it
bill
but he himself is the victim of class prejudice."
pation.
a
The Other News
Quotation of
Index
International
"Industry has to reject the
In a Cambodian town: War
that brags about a car going fro
and terror.
Page 1
in 4.5 seconds and says noth
U.N. and citizens group to
poisoned air it leaves behind."
fight narcotics.
Page 2
speaking to a conference of ina
Day
Thant urges Big Five meet on
world problems.
Page 2
South Africa urged to restore
Mutiny conviction of G.I. is Bu
and prices. There was some
set aside,
writer's passport. Page 2
Page 95
that a commission would be
Ne
Martial law declared in Istan-
night identify the inflationary
Industry and Labor
of specific wage and price
bul after rioting.
Page 3
Hospital union uses film to
A.
Heath says Labor would de-
emphasize point. Page 33
value the pound. Page 3
form bill backed by President
U.S. and Soviet edging toward
Education and Welfare
Ec
of organized labor was
nuclear accord.
Page 7
N.E.A. says black teachers
j
House as it took up for con-
Arab leftists aloof toward
lose jobs.
Page 1
Co
own postal bill. The House
€
guerrillas.
Page 8
Health and Science
several provisions of the
Israel recognizes marriage
halted April's postal strike
Astronomers detect evolu-
Adve
without clergy.
Page 11
tionary ingredient. Page 30
Ame
termed "unacceptable" by
Seoul protests U.S. troop
union leaders. [1:7.]
pullout plan.
Page 16
Suit to press ban on useless
Bonc
Busi
Congressional group intro-
Hanoi sees all Indochina as
drugs.
Page 31
Comi
Cott
hat would allow Federal courts
war arena.
Page 18
musements and the Arts
Divic
and punish interference with
U.N. aviation agency meets
Rikers Island gets nightclub
Forei
eech. On campus, the law could
on hijacking.
Page 94
act.
Page 38
disruptive students by the
Government and Politics
Regina Resnik sings title role
Spc
it could also be used by
in "Carmen."
Page 39
Gra
an administration that
Diplomats reassured on Cam-
bodia protest.
Page 19
City folk play
country
Si
demonstrations. [1:6-7.]
music.
Addonizio backers dismayed
Page 39
Yan
Agnew said that Joseph
Ballet Theater opens
month-
fo
by election results. Page 34
a 22-year-old Harvard junior
Priest is opposed as a poli-
long season.
Page 40
Orio
to the new Presidential
Film "Censorship
in Den-
at
tician.
Page 35
on campus unrest, had demon-
Report confirms illegal loans
mark" opens.
Page 41
Fost
he did not possess the "matur-
Rochester to have
a
film
in
in Ohio.
Page 35
and judgment" to sit on the
festival.
Page 43
Crug
Harriman backs Goldberg for
alled for his resignation. Mr.
Bobby Seale's "Seize the Time"
Bei
governor.
Page 36
would not resign. [1:6-7.]
is reviewed.
O'Dwyer assails M.T.A.'s oper-
Page 45
Pacer
ation of subways. Page 36
A.B.C. to produce TV feature
"di:
an
films.
Graet
Ottinger says poll shows he
Page 95
Gibson decisively defeated
TV conferees look to next
gra
leads Sorensen.
Page 36
onizio, the incumbent, in New-
Powell predicts he'll win
by
meetings.
Page 95
Brazil
fought and racially devisive
Cuj
3-1 margin.
Page 36
Fashions and Home
tal election. Mr. Gibson thus
Zacha
Samuels says racism is in-
New hairstyle is called "The
first black Mayor of a major
Jer
jected in primary. Page 36
Ape."
Page 52
oard city. The voter turnout
Rain
General
She's doctor, doctor's wife,
est of any mayoral runoff in
U.S
Second draft lottery to be
mother.
Page 52
Fren
tory. A campaign spokesman
at
n called it a victory over hate
held July 1.
Page 14
Obituaries
|-8.]
Queens students reflect on
Elsa Triolet, winner of the
Man
Sweig, the suspended aide of
boy's stabbing.
Page 22
Goncourt prize.
Page 47
Recovery of miners' bodies
r John W. McCormack, has
Brian Piccolo, Chicago Bears
Josej
hits big delay.
Page 32
Minority Leader Gerald R.
halfback.
Page 47
ca
Police expert urges tighter
tors Claiborne Pell and Jacob
Viscount Thurso, British Lib-
Ana
conspiracy laws. Page 37
ppear as defense witnesses at
eral leader.
Page 47
16 accused of operating Bronx
B.
perjury and conspiracy, ex-
gambling ring.
Page 37
Financial and Business
In
today. [53:1.]
Pentagon backs Congressional
Stock prices surge as Dow
E. B
a series of trials of Black
scrutiny of PX's. Page 39
rises by 18.90.
Page 63
ch
sed of murdering a fellow
Governor stresses economy
Prices advance sharply in
Edit
opened quietly in New Haven.
and ecology.
Page 42
credit markets.
Page 63
Lett
on made the unusual move
Judge's son arraigned at 5
Nixon names 14 to panel on
Jam
defense that it had no inten-
A.M. at station. Page 51
financial structure. Page 63
re
g the death penalty against
Addonizio case witness tells
Allied Stores sees a lag in
C.L
in the trial. [28:4-8.]
of contract loss. Page 53
quarterly sales.
Page 63
M
ar
THE WHITE HOUSE
Plitical
WASHINGTON
MEMORANDUM FOR BOB HALDEMAN
FROM: BILL SAFIRE
August 7, 1970.
RE: EARLY WARNING ON '72
The John Gardner "Common Cause" movement, in which
Eugene McCarthy will probably take part, will be partially
bankrolled by Howard Stein, an ardent McCarthyite.
Stein, head of the Dreyfus Fund (and one of the forty Wall
Streeters invited to our dinner early this summer) is said
to feel that "we have to split the Republicans in '72 just
the way the Democrats were split in '68, and the way the
Republicans were split in '64. "
The pl an, as a mutual friend tells it to me, is not to organize
a group of liberal Democrats who will sit on their hands and
make it easier for us, as happened in '68 to some degree;
instead, to organize a group designed to attract liberal Repub-
licans who can then be split from us. This would probably be
most damaging in the fund-raising area and might be harmful
to the preemption of the center.
I think we would be making a mistake to view the Gardner
operation as a do-gooder movement or as a potential Democratic
Party-splitter. It is aimed at us, and it can develop into a threat
in the next year.
Thus, we should (1) do what we can sub rosa to discourage liberal
Republicans from joining his ranks, since they would be getting on
board an organization that will turn on us when the chips are down;
(2) identify Gardner as a politician out to be elected to national
office and not a citizen devoid of personal ambition out to do what
is right for his fellow man, as he would have everyone believe.
We should help cause "what's in it for him?" to be asked, and
"he thinks he's Wendell Willkie" to be answered.