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This file contains:
Journal article from Battle Line, December, 1971, Vol. V, No. 12, regarding the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Other articles about current political issues are included. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Pat Buchanan To: John Ehrlichman, H.R. Haldeman and Charles Colson RE: Catholic Vote & 1972 (Political Strategy- 1972 file). 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/23/1971
From: Roy Morey To: Ed Harper and Ken Cole RE: The Catholic Vote and 1972. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1971
From: Roy Morey To: Gordon Strachan RE: Results from ABC production, "National Polling Day: The Surprising Americans." 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/1/1971
From: Charlie McWhorter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Advised steps to be taken to achieve a greater sense of identification with the President and the Administration. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/4/1971
From: Stephen Hess To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Consequences of "Check-off Plan". Another letter is attached addressing plans to subsidize presidential campaigns from public monies. Handwritten note addressed to H.R. Haldeman preceeds letters. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 11/24/1971
The Youth Vote and the Congressional Elections by Stephen Hess. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/3/1971
titled The President and Young America. Several different examples and newspaper article clippings proving Nixon's pland benefit the youth. 16 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Brochure], no date
Outline regarding Evaluation of November 2, 1971, Elections. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Final Election Returns prepared by Harry Dent from previous date. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
From: Ed Debolt To: Gordon Strachan RE: Preliminary Election Report. 15 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
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26145794
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WHSF: Contested, 19-11
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26145794
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WHSF: Contested, 19-11
description
This file contains:
Journal article from Battle Line, December, 1971, Vol. V, No. 12, regarding the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Other articles about current political issues are included. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Pat Buchanan To: John Ehrlichman, H.R. Haldeman and Charles Colson RE: Catholic Vote & 1972 (Political Strategy- 1972 file). 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/23/1971
From: Roy Morey To: Ed Harper and Ken Cole RE: The Catholic Vote and 1972. 11 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1971
From: Roy Morey To: Gordon Strachan RE: Results from ABC production, "National Polling Day: The Surprising Americans." 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/1/1971
From: Charlie McWhorter To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Advised steps to be taken to achieve a greater sense of identification with the President and the Administration. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/4/1971
From: Stephen Hess To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Consequences of "Check-off Plan". Another letter is attached addressing plans to subsidize presidential campaigns from public monies. Handwritten note addressed to H.R. Haldeman preceeds letters. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 11/24/1971
The Youth Vote and the Congressional Elections by Stephen Hess. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/3/1971
titled The President and Young America. Several different examples and newspaper article clippings proving Nixon's pland benefit the youth. 16 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Brochure], no date
Outline regarding Evaluation of November 2, 1971, Elections. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Final Election Returns prepared by Harry Dent from previous date. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
From: Ed Debolt To: Gordon Strachan RE: Preliminary Election Report. 15 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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26145794
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
11
Campaign
Other Document
Journal article from Battle Line, December,
1971, Vol. V, No. 12, regarding the race for
the Democratic Presidential nomination.
Other articles about current political issues
are included. 6 pgs.
19
11
9/23/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Pat Buchanan To: John Ehrlichman,
H.R. Haldeman and Charles Colson RE:
Catholic Vote & 1972 (Political Strategy-
1972 file). 8 pgs.
19
11
9/16/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Roy Morey To: Ed Harper and Ken
Cole RE: The Catholic Vote and 1972. 11
pgs.
19
11
10/1/1971
Campaign
Report
From: Roy Morey To: Gordon Strachan RE:
Results from ABC production, "National
Polling Day: The Surprising Americans." 5
pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
11
1/4/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Charlie McWhorter To: H.R.
Haldeman RE: Advised steps to be taken to
achieve a greater sense of identification with
the President and the Administration. 3 pgs.
19
11
11/24/1971
Campaign
Letter
From: Stephen Hess To: H.R. Haldeman RE:
Consequences of "Check-off Plan". Another
letter is attached addressing plans to
subsidize presidential campaigns from public
monies. Handwritten note addressed to H.R.
Haldeman preceeds letters. 5 pgs.
19
11
11/3/1971
Campaign
Report
The Youth Vote and the Congressional
Elections by Stephen Hess. 4 pgs.
19
11
Campaign
Brochure
Brochure titled The President and Young
America. Several different examples and
newspaper article clippings proving Nixon's
pland benefit the youth. 16 pgs.
19
11
Campaign
Other Document
Outline regarding Evaluation of November 2,
1971, Elections. 2 pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
11
11/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Final Election Returns prepared by
Harry Dent from previous date. 3 pgs.
19
11
11/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Ed Debolt To: Gordon Strachan RE:
Preliminary Election Report. 15 pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 3 of 3
December, 1971, Vol. V, No. 12
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Congressmen Against Prayer
Battle Line
Congressmen For Busing
Pages 4, 5
INDOCHINA
Nixon's Toughness
Page 6
American Conservative Union
422 First Street, S.E.
STATE POLITICS
Washington, D.C. 20003
California Redistricting
Page 6
1971 by the American Conservative Union
Democratic Race Takes Shape
The race for the Democratic Presidential nomination is
taking on clear definition for the first time. Most of the
non-serious candidates have dropped out, and those who
have entered, or are about to enter, will be the main
factors at least through the primary season.
The most notable development of recent weeks has
been consolidation on the party's left wing. As Battle Line
predicted when Mayor John Lindsay became a Democrat
in August, his prospective entry has cleared much of the
deadwood out of the left. Harold Hughes, Birch Bayh,
William Proxmire, and Fred Harris have dropped out in
surprisingly short order. The only Democratic leftist who
has survived the Lindsay specter-Sen. George McGov-
ern-has done SO because he has raised his money by
direct mail, rather than from a few fat cats as was the
case with all the dropouts. The big money on the left
wing-and there is plenty-will mostly be with Lindsay.
McGovern has the backing to last a couple of primaries,
but his vote must be comparable to Lindsay's for him to
survive beyond Wisconsin. The guess here is that it won't.
Aside from McGovern, Lindsay's only problem on the
Sen. Henry Jackson (D-Wash.), who last month became the
left is the possible entry of former Sen. Eugene McCarthy.
third announced candidate for the Democratic nomination
Unlike McGovern, the Minnesota poet has access to some
fat cats. If McCarthy runs in New Hampshire where he is
New Hampshire, and Wallace (no doubt) in Florida.
well known, he could get a head start on Lindsay, who is
This is likely to prevent Jackson from winning either of
disinclined to run in Edmund Muskie's back yard. But
the psychologically important first two primaries.
McCarthy faces a viciously hostile national press for such
But Jackson is a formidable man. His announcement
heterodoxies as his vote against Edward Kennedy for
statement November 19 suggested that he has rejected
Majority Whip.
the advice of aides who urged him to tone down his dif-
While the party left has been consolidating rapidly,
ferences with the Democratic disarmers and social liberals,
center-right contenders have been proliferating almost as
including Muskie. He described America as "the only
fast. Last month Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington and
Western industrial democracy where people are afraid to
Mayor Sam Yorty of Los Angeles joined McGovern as
go out on the streets at night. Talk about civil rights!
the only officially declared Democrats, and indications
Talk about civil liberties! What about the civil rights and
are growing that Alabama Gov. George Wallace will enter
liberties of Americans-of ALL races-who don't feel
most if not all of the Southern Democratic primaries, in-
safe in their own neighborhoods?"
cluding Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee. This is
Despite this, Jackson said, "many politicians whine at
bad news for Jackson, the only moderate with a chance.
the public's demand for law and order. They say law and
Yorty will be splitting the non-leftist vote with Jackson in
order is a code word for racism, for repression. I say
that until we are prepared to acknowledge that law and
never won a Democratic Presidential primary, either in
order is a real problem, we just won't solve it." In recent
1960 or 1968-and he desperately needs strong primary
weeks Jackson has also been moving toward a more con-
showings in order to win.
servative position on forced school busing. He has ex-
If he gets them, it is Muskie who will suffer the most.
pressed concern about possible arms-limitation conces-
Right now, the Maine Senator holds the middle ground in
sions by the Nixon Administration to the Soviet Union,
potential constituencies. Part of his strength is that he is
and has said he will continue to oppose a withdrawal
the only Catholic running in a heavily Catholic party, but
deadline in Indochina.
he is also helped by the division on each of his flanks:
Lindsay and McGovern on the left, Jackson and Wallace-
Jackson Plays Tough
Yorty on his right. The entry of Humphrey would bring
Perhaps most important for his chances, Jackson gave
serious competition to the center as well; and if Hubert
some indication that he will not play possum when it
stays the route, the likely dropout of McGovern, Yorty,
comes to his liberal-left competitors. Quoting from a
and Wallace could give Jackson and Lindsay uncontested
recent Muskie speech which said the Attica prison riot
bases on either side in the later primaries, especially
indicates something "is terribly wrong" with America,
California and New York.
Jackson said: "A prison riot does not prove that some-
thing is terribly wrong in America. That kind of talk is
Primary Importance
part of the problem, not part of the cure.
The overriding importance of the primaries, in absolute
"This society is not a guilty, imperialist, oppressive
terms and in comparison to 1968, is not widely under-
society.
This is not a sick country. This is a great
stood. Because of reforms pushed by the McGovern
country. This is a country that is conscious of wrongs
Commission, approximately two-thirds of all Democratic
and is capable of correcting the wrongs in our society.
delegates will be chosen in party primaries. In a few
But those wrongs won't be corrected by throwing bombs,
scattered areas-most notably Mayor Daley's Chicago—
by trying to stop the government, or by attacking police-
strong local organizations can probably beat any outside
men. Nor will these wrongs be corrected by politicians
candidate with slates of unpledged delegate candidates,
who apologize for extremists. Let's remember that
but in 1972 this will be an exception rather than the rule.
the first victim of extremism is justice."
If anyone, even Jackson or Lindsay, puts together a pri-
This is the kind of campaigning, if sustained, that gives
mary sweep of the type mounted by John F. Kennedy in
1960 or Richard Nixon in 1968, he will be the nominee
Jackson an outside chance of carrying several primaries
and perhaps of winning the nomination. He is not a
barring accident or death.
At this time, Muskie appears to be the only candidate
charismatic figure, and the hostile national media will not
impart to him a charisma that is not there. Jackson's
capable of achieving a sweep of Kennedy-Nixon propor-
only chance of serious contention is to emphasize his dis-
tions. Despite some rather wide national poll fluctuations
in recent months, Muskie is far ahead in every Northern
agreements with his competitors, not his similarities. Of
all the serious Democratic contenders, Jackson has the
primary state in which a reliable poll has been taken, and
he is stronger than any other single candidate even in
most to gain from openly expressed ideological cleavage.
Whether this tough, attacking stance will be enough to
overcome Muskie's early lead and the competition from
December, 1971, Vol. V, No. 12
Yorty and Wallace on the center-right is highly doubtful,
but it is Jackson's sole hope of success. His strong em-
Battle Line
phasis on the economic issue will help him in the already
friendly ranks of organized labor, and will provide him
with his major issue should he manage to win the nomi-
Editor: Jeffrey Bell
nation, but in terms of getting the nomination itself he
Battle Line is published monthly by the American
must cut into the "centrist" constituency of Muskie and
Conservative Union, 422 First Street, S.E., Washing-
possibly Hubert Humphrey as well. He can do this, not
ton, D.C. 20003 (phone Area Code 202-546-6555)
by moving to the left, but by showing that Muskie and
Second class postage paid at Washington, D.C.
Address all editorial matter, letters to the editor, subscription inquiries,
Humphrey are not centrists.
and changes of address to: Battle Line, 422 First Street, S.E., Wash-
Humphrey is the largest remaining imponderable in the
ington, D.C. 20003
CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Send old and new address (including
Democratic race. He has sounded like a candidate one
either the mailing label or envelope from previous issue) with
day and a spectator the next, but there is no question his
Zip Code number, to Battle Line, 422 First Street, S.E., Washington,
D.C. 20003
statements have averaged out more and more on the side
UNDELIVERED COPIES: Send notice on Form 3579 to Ameri-
of candidacy as 1971 has progressed. But even lately,
can Conservative Union, (Battle Line) 422 First Street, S.E., Wash-
Humphrey has been showing a tendency to pick and
ington, D.C. 20003
COPYRIGHT, 1971 by the American Conservative Union
choose which primaries he will enter. This is a mistake.
SUBSCRIPTION PRICE: For non-members of ACU - $10 yearly;
Humphrey's single biggest handicap is a widespread im-
for members of ACU - $7 - yearly (included in annual membership
dues).
pression that he is strictly a bosses' candidate-he has
Page Two
Battle Line/December, 1971
much of the South. The misleading thing about the Gal-
planners will almost certainly write off the area to Nixon
lup and Harris polls showing Muskie's decline is that they
and Wallace as the very first "given" of the campaign.
all match him against three men: President Nixon, Sen.
In the West, the only Protestant Democrat of national
Kennedy, and Sen. Humphrey. But Muskie does not have
stature is Jackson. But given Jackson's apparent decision
to run against Nixon or Kennedy in the Democratic pri-
to emphasize his differences with Muskie, a Muskie-
maries, and he may not have to run against Humphrey
Jackson ticket would look more than a little schizophrenic
in more than a few. Thus there is no question that
-far more so, for example, than the Kennedy-Johnson
Muskie is the only primary entrant so far with broad sup-
ticket of 1960. In 1960, Kennedy and Johnson disagreed
port in the states that matter. No one else has "caught
very little on the issues; it is hard to recall a single impor-
fire." The main cloud on this horizon is that the two
tant area where they disagreed on substance, rather than
newest factors, Jackson and Lindsay, are capable of doing
style or emphasis. This will not be the case with Muskie
so. The fact remains that they have failed to do so as
and Jackson in 1972. Moreover, Muskie will know that
yet, and this is why Muskie is very likely to be the
the nomination of a fellow liberal-dove will almost cer-
nominee.
tainly not alienate either Jackson or the AFL-CIO-but
He is helped particularly by his apparent mastery in
that the nomination of Jackson would almost certainly
New Hampshire, a small primary with large implications
cause a schism with the party's powerful Left.
simply by virtue of being the first. If Muskie's big lead
holds up in the Granite State, it could set off a chain
Midwesterner Likely
reaction that carries its Maine neighbor right through the
Aside from Humphrey, the only presentable Protestant
remainder of the primary route. This is exactly the kind
Democrats to hold statewide office in the Midwest are
of boost New Hampshire gave to Nixon in 1968. Candi-
Sens. McGovern and Hughes from the Farm Belt; and
dates like Humphrey and Lindsay who have downplayed
Sens. Proxmire, Mondale, Bayh, and Stevenson from the
the importance of New Hampshire had better think twice.
Lake states. Muskie's choice will almost certainly come
A conspicuous absentee in this discussion has been
from this group. Humphrey, who has already been Vice
Edward Kennedy-and with reason. Whatever Kennedy
President and very nearly President, can be ruled out. So
and his closest aides may be thinking privately, the new
can Proxmire, if only because of his two divorces. Mc-
structure of the Democratic Party, with its emphasis on
Govern and Hughes are from smaller, non-strategic states
direct election of delegates, makes it extremely unlikely
where the Republicans will be favored no matter what;
that Kennedy can win without running. And his dis-
furthermore, the selection of either one would not be
avowals of candidacy have been too convincing to be sud-
taken kindly by George Meany. That leaves Bayh, Mon-
denly disowned without serious loss of face, and probably
dale, and Stevenson as the front-runners.
ultimate disaster. Kennedy's only hope is a shattering
Bayh dropped out of the Presidential race because of
fragmentation in the primaries, in which no one would
the illness of his wife, but it was an open secret in polit-
win more than two or three and the convention would
ical circles that his campaign was dead well before the
begin deeply deadlocked. This has not happened in either
announcement. Despite his good looks, glibness, and
party since 1952, and the "bandwagon" psychology of
national reputation, Bayh appears to lack an indefinable
the primary route renders it highly improbable in 1972.
"big-league" quality that makes for a serious national
If Muskie holds his big lead for much longer, specu-
politician. The odds appear to be against his selection.
lation will begin to focus on his Vice Presidential running
Mondale is handsome and articulate, and may have
mate. Muskie has already ruled out a Negro candidate,
the "national" quality Bayh lacks. He is a real possibil-
and his own background makes him unlikely to choose
ity, probably with a better chance than Bayh, but he has
either a Catholic or a Northeasterner, though a very
been very liberal on the wrong issues-like busing.
strong second-place showing by Lindsay could change
Without having any of the others' disadvantages, Adlai
this.
Stevenson III has one strong recommendation which they
Half of the elected Democratic politicians in the South
all lack: he is a proven vote-getter in a large state that
are preening themselves these days, but a Southern run-
Muskie must carry to win nationally. The nomination of
ning mate for Muskie is even more unlikely than an East-
Stevenson would also be a significant bargaining card with
ern one. The Democrats carried one Southern state in
Daley-who probably would like to see Stevenson ad-
1968, and polls matching various Democrats against Nixon
vance beyond the Illinois political scene for more reasons
and Wallace suggest that they may carry none in 1972. The
than one. Then there is the name, which for Muskie
fact is that the Democrats have moved too far left in
would be a symbolic gesture to the party's past-a past
their national policies to have much of a chance in
which, in defense and foreign policy, Jackson is trying to
the South with anyone but Jackson; and if Jackson bulls
revive substantively rather than symbolically. A Muskie-
his way to the nomination the South will be the last place
Stevenson ticket, because it is the path of least resistance
he would look to gain strength. With Jackson, the Demo-
and least pain to so many elements in the Democratic
crats will contend strongly in the South without a South-
Party as now constituted, is the likeliest outcome as of
erner on the ticket. With anyone but Jackson, Democratic
now.
Battle Line/December, 1971
Page Three
Congressmen Against Prayer
Below is a list of the 162 House members who voted against, and thus defeated, a constitutional amendment that would have permitted voluntary
prayer or meditation in U.S. public schools:
DEMOCRATS
Dow
McFall
Steed
Abourezk
Drinan
McKay
Stephens
Abzug
Eckhardt
Macdonald
Stokes
Adams
Edwards (Calif.)
Madden
Symington
Anderson (Calif.)
Eilberg
Meeds
Thompson (N.J.)
Anderson (Tenn.)
Evans (Colo.)
Metcalfe
Tiernan
Annunzio
Evins (Tenn.)
Mikva
Udall
Ashley
Fascell
Miller (Calif.)
Ullman
Aspin
Foley
Mills (Ark.)
Van Deerlin
Aspinall
Ford, William
Minish
Vanik
Badillo
Fraser
Mink
Waldie
Begich
Fulton (Tenn.)
Mitchell
Wilson, Charles
Bergland
Gallagher
Moorhead
Yates
Biaggi
Gonzalez
Moss
Bingham
Grasso
Nedzi
REPUBLICANS
Blatnik
Green (Pa.)
Nix
Anderson (III.)
Boggs
Griffin
Obey
Biester
Boland
Griffiths
O'Hara
Dellenback
Bolling
Hamilton
O'Neill
Findley
Brademas
Hanna
Passman
Frelinghuysen
Brasco
Hansen (Wash.)
Patman
Frenzel
Brooks
Harrington
Patten
Gude
Burlison (Mo.)
Hathaway
Pepper
Hansen (Idaho)
Burton
Hawkins
Podell
Heinz
Cabell
Helstoski
Preyer (N.C.)
Horton
Carey
Holifield
Rangel
Keith
Celler
Howard
Rees
McCloskey
Chisholm
Hungate
Reuss
McCulloch
Jacobs
Rodino
Mailliard
Clay
Collins (III.)
Johnson (Calif.)
Rooney (N.Y.)
Mayne
Conyers
Jones (Ala.)
Rosenthal
Morse
Corman
Karth
Roy
Mosher
Cotter
Kastenmeier
Roybol
Peyser
Culver
Kluczynski
Ryan
Railsback
Daniels (N.J.)
Koch
St Germain
Reid (N.Y.)
Danielson
Kyros
Satterfield
Riegle
Davis (Ga.)
Landrum
Scheuer
Robison (N.Y.)
Dellums
Leggett
Seiberling
Schwengel
Denholm
Link
Sisk
Steiger (Wis.)
Dingell
Long (Md.)
Smith (lowa)
Whalen
Dorn
McCormack
Stanton, James V.
Wiggins
Congressmen For Busing
Below is a list of 122 Congressmen who vated with pro-busing forces on at least two of three House test votes last month. This compitation was made
by Human Events.
DEMOCRATS
Denholm
Madden
Seiberling
Abourezk
Dent
Matsunaga
Smith (lowa)
Abzug
Donohue
Meeds
Stokes
Adams
Dorn
Melcher
Symington
Addabbo
Dow
Minish
Thompson (N.J.)
Albert
Drinan
Mink
Van Deerlin
Annunzia
Eckhardt
Mitchell
Waldie
Ashley
Edwards (Calif.)
Moorhead
Wolff
Badillo
Evans (Colo.)
Morgan
Yates
Begich
Fascell
Moss
REPUBLICANS
Bergland
Foley
Murphy (III.)
Anderson (III.)
Bingham
Fraser
Murphy (N.Y.)
Bell
Blatnik
Gallagher
Nix
Conte
Boggs
Gonzalez
Obey
Dellenback
Bolling
Green (Pa.)
O'Neill
Erlenborn
Brademas
Hanley
Patten
Fish
Brasco
Harrington
Pepper
Frenzel
Burke (Mass.)
Hathaway
Perkins
Gude
Burton
Hawkins
Podell
Heckler
Byrne
Hechler
Preyer
McClory
Carey
Helstoski
Price (III.)
McCloskey
Celler
Hicks (Wash.)
Rangel
Mailliard
Chisholm
Holifield
Reuss
Mayne
Clay
Howard
Rodino
Morse
Collins (III.)
Karth
Roncalio
Mosher
Conyers
Kastenmeier
Rooney (N.Y.)
Quie
Corman
Kyros
Rosenthal
Reid
Daniels
Leggett
Rostenkowski
Riegle
Danielson
Link
Roy
Steiger (Wis.)
de la Garza
McCormack
Roybal
Whalen
Dellums
McFall
Ryan
Zwach
Page Four
Battle Line/December, 1971
Nix on Prayer
It passed on a vote of 233 to 124.
A key amendment to the Ashbrook measure was intro-
The House of Representatives rejected last month a
duced by Rep. Edith Green (D.-Ore.). It would bar any
constitutional amendment which would have permitted
Federal employee or agency from forcing or inducing the
schoolchildren to participate in "voluntary prayer or
use of state or local funds for any purpose for which
meditation."
Federal funds could not be used. In other words, if
The amendment, sponsored by Rep. Chalmers Wylie
Federal funds cannot be used for busing, Federal bureau-
(R.-Ohio) and modified slightly by Rep. John Buchanan
crats cannot use their leverage to divert local funds to
(R.-Ala.), received 240 votes to 162 against. It thus
that purpose. The Green Amendment passed by a similar
fell 28 votes short of the two-thirds majority needed for
vote, 231 to 126.
passage of constitutional amendments.
A third amendment was offered by Rep. William
Expected to pass earlier in the year, the amendment
Broomfield (R.-Mich.). It would postpone the effective-
was scuttled by an hysterical lobbying campaign by
ness of any Federal court order requiring busing until all
liberal-controlled church groups and denominations.
appeals, or all deadlines for appeals, have been exhausted.
These included the National Council of Churches, the
It passed, 235 to 125.
U.S. Catholic Conference, the American Baptist Con-
On the adjoining page, Battle Line publishes a list
vention, the Episcopal Church Executive Council, the
of all Congressmen who voted against two or more of
American Jewish Congress, the United Presbyterian
these three amendments. ACU members who live in the
Church, the United Methodist Church, the Friends Com-
districts of these Congressmen are urged to oppose in
mittee on National Legislation, the Church of the Breth-
letters and wires further pro-busing votes, and demand
ren, and the Unitarian Universalist Association. This
that they resist busing by backing the Lent Amendment
ponderous array led Rep. John Hunt (R.-N.J.) to
next year.
remark, "Everyone is against voluntary prayers in our
schools except the people."
States Can Handle Welfare
Indeed, every reputable poll has shown that an over-
whelming majority of the American people favor school
While President Nixon's Family Assistance Plan re-
prayer. The idea that a practice as old as the Republic
mains stalled in the Senate Finance Committee, evidence
itself is a threat to church-state separation, as the Supreme
continues to mount that the radical guaranteed-income
Court ruled in 1962, is ludicrous to most Americans.
scheme should never have been proposed in the first place.
This issue is far from dead. The Conservative Victory
One of FAP's main assumptions, for example, is that
Fund, an affiliate of the American Conservative Union
states and localities have proven themselves incapable
which gives financial aid and advice to Congressional
of keeping their welfare rolls within reasonable bounds.
candidates around the country, will encourage candidates
If FAP is passed, all welfare programs will be transferred
it supports to revive the school-prayer issue in campaigns
to a new 65,000-man bureaucracy in the Department of
this fall. In the meantime, we publish on the adjoining
Health, Education, and Welfare, to be administered by
page a list of all Representatives who voted against the
liberal Richard Nathan.
amendment. Conservative organizers, workers, and can-
A year or so ago, the incompetence of states and
didates would be wise to regard quite a few of these
municipalities did seem a provable contention. It was
gentlemen as vulnerable in their home districts, whether
under their stewardship, after all, that national welfare
in primaries or general elections.
cases more than doubled in the decade of the 1960s.
But there was, it turned out, a limit. More and more
Busing Setback
governors, mayors, and legislators were finding that either
welfare would have to be cut, or taxes would have to
In a series of amendments to the Higher Education
be raised. Not surprisingly, more and more are choosing
Act of 1971 last month, House busing foes won a string
the former option.
of overwhelming victories. Unfortunately, though, the
In the month of July, 84,000 people were dropped
margins were not sufficient to pass Rep. Norman Lent's
from state welfare rolls, according to figures recently
constitutional amendment banning forced busing that may
released by HEW. It was the third straight month this
be voted on early next year. Unless a half dozen or so
had happened, a reversal of a decade-old trend. Since
Congressmen who voted for busing this year can be
more and more states have adopted tougher welfare
persuaded to vote against it next year, the amendment
practices, it is likely that later figures will show further
will fall short of the two-thirds majority it needs.
declines.
The most important amendment passed last month was
Passage of FAP, which would add 14 million Ameri-
introduced by Rep. John Ashbrook (R.-Ohio), a Board
cans to the welfare rolls as well as federalize the system,
member and past chairman of the American Conserva-
would be particularly senseless coming at a time when
tive Union. The Ashbrook Amendment, if passed by the
the states are proving their ability to bring the problem
Senate and signed by the White House, would bar the
under control. ACU members are reminded to write their
use of Federal funds for busing students or teachers for
home-state Senators urging opposition to FAP, and sup-
"racial balance," or for purchasing buses for that purpose.
port of an anti-FAP filibuster if necessary.
Battle Line/December, 1971
Page Five
Toughness on Indochina
State Politics
President Nixon's Vietnam-oriented press conference
November 12 provided an encouraging contrast to his
California: Up for Grabs
disastrous China policy.
Gov. Ronald Reagan and the Democrats who control
The acceleration in the troop-withdrawal program was
the California Legislature have come to tentative agree-
not unexpected-and, considering the progress of our
ment on a Congressional redistricting plan that gives both
South Vietnamese allies, probably not imprudent. What
parties a shot at significant gains. The state's reapportion-
was welcome and more than a little unexpected was
ment maneuvering has been one of the most closely
the President's firm articulation of our reasons for standing
watched in the nation, since California gains five House
by our treaty commitments, together with the concrete
seats in the new Census.
pledges he outlined toward achieving that end.
None of the 38 incumbents-20 Democrats and 18 Re-
Perhaps the most important departure in Mr. Nixon's
publicans-will be seriously hurt by the new plan, and
remarks was the explicitness of his commitment to a
only a mammoth sweep could affect even a handful of
"residual force": "If we do not get a negotiated settle-
these seats. But at least three of the five new seats could
ment, then it is necessary to maintain a residual force
go to either party.
for not only the reason
of having something to
One district will include the "Inland Empire" east of
negotiate with, with regard to our prisoners, but it is also
Los Angeles, including San Bernardino County. The rapid-
essential to do so in order to continue our role of leaving
ly growing suburban area has Democratic traditions, but
South Vietnam in a position where it will be able to
has had a Republican trend in recent years. President
defend itself against a Communist takeover." In this
Nixon rolled up a 22,000-vote plurality in San Bernardino
statement, the President underlined the immorality of
in 1968 in the context of a close race statewide.
using a residual force merely as a device to obtain POW
Another marginal district will lie in the San Joaquin
release. In addition, it is clear that he has no intention
Valley, sprawling all the way from Sacramento to Bakers-
of eliminating the residual force by stages, and then using
field. This is traditionally Democratic "Okie" country,
vital air support as the only remaining bargaining chip for
but conservative Republicans have won here recently.
prisoner release, as some have speculated. That is a for-
mula for Communist victory that Mr. Nixon rightly rejects.
A more problematic district will include Santa Clara
County, a booming suburban area south of San Francisco.
Regarding air power, "we will continue to use it in
The key figure here is Rep. Paul McCloskey, the liberal
support of the South Vietnamese until there is a negotiated
Republican who is challenging President Nixon in the
settlement or, looking further down the road, until the
primaries. If McCloskey runs and wins renomination in
South Vietnamese have developed the capability to handle
what is left of his old district, Republicans would be
the situation themselves." This goes a long way toward
favored in the new one as well as the old one. But if
complete detachment of air power from the prisoner
McCloskey runs in Santa Clara, his old district will prob-
issue, a policy Battle Line strongly urged last month.
ably go Democratic as a result of Census shifts.
American air power is too vital a part of the South
The two other new districts, one in the Sun Belt area
Vietnamese military machine to become part of the
of Orange and San Diego Counties, and the other in a
political equation, at least for quite a while.
Negro section of Los Angeles County, will not be mar-
Later in the week, in signing the military procurement
ginal. Barring a cataclysm, the first will go Republican
bill, the President announced he would not be bound by
and the second Democratic.
the newly enacted Mansfield Amendment making it the
The likeliest outcome is that three of the new seats will
"policy of the United States" to withdraw from Indochina
go Republican, and two Democratic. This would leave
subject only to prisoner release. His decision was not
the Democrats in narrow control of the nation's largest
only good policy, but good law. The Mansfield measure
House delegation, 23-22.
was passed in language which makes it non-binding, and
As in Illinois (see November Battle Line), the situation
to carry it out would mean overt betrayal of our allies.
would have been much worse if state Republicans had
The President's new toughness was rewarded later that
heeded the advice of their Congressional colleagues. Rep.
day in Congress. By a surprisingly one-sided vote of
Phillip Burton, a very liberal Democrat from San Fran-
238 to 164, the House of Representatives rejected an
cisco, asked the Republican Congressmen to carve out
amendment of Rep. Edward Boland (D.-Mass.) that
their own seats. After they had predictably given them-
would have been binding: a cutoff of all funding for the
selves ultra-safe districts, in the process gobbling up al-
war by June 1, subject only to prisoner release. ACU
most every spare Republican precinct in the state, Burton
members are urged to contact their Senators urging
took the leftovers and produced four sure Democratic
rejection of any similar measure. America's role in Asia,
seats and a single, unavoidable Republican one. The en-
not to mention the credibility of our anti-Communist for-
tire delegation then united behind this monstrosity and
eign policy on every continent, depend on continued
presented it to the state. The Governor, to his credit,
toughness by the President and continued resistance by
wouldn't play, and insisted on the more equitable map
Congressional hawks.
now headed for passage.
Page Six
Battle Line/December, 1971
Louisiana: Familiar Split
distant third with 5,660. Mallary, a former state senator
and representative, was an aide to Gov. Deane Davis until
There was something old and something new in the
recently.
outcome of Louisiana's Democratic gubernatorial primary
Probate Judge J. William O'Brien, 45, won the Demo-
November 6. But Bayou State observers were betting that
cratic nomination with 5,744 votes, or 45 per cent, in a
the old patterns will triumph in the two-man runoff De-
race against three liberals. But Mallary is heavily favored
cember 18.
to win in a state where Republicans have lost only one
The novel side of things, which received most of the
Congressional race since the party's founding. The gen-
attention in the national press, consisted in the striking
eral election is January 7.
fact that the race issue was absent from the campaign and
The contest was necessitated by the death earlier this
that the two front-runners, Rep. Edwin Edwards and State
year of Sen. Winston Prouty, a Republican. Robert Staf-
Sen. J. Bennett Johnston, are both considered political
ford, the state's Congressman since 1961, was appointed
moderates by Louisiana standards.
to succed him and is a sure winner in January for the re-
But a more traditional element, less commented upon
maining five years of Prouty's term.
outside the state, was present as well: the two survivors
If Mallary wins, he will be in line for a Senate seat in
of the wild 17-man race are a Catholic from the southern
the near future. Sen. George Aiken, a 79-year-old Repub-
and a Protestant from the northern part of the state.
lican, is expected to retire in 1974. Both Aiken and Staf-
Whenever this situation has arisen in the past two genera-
ford are liberals.
tions, and it has done so often, the northern Protestant
has always won the governorship.
Massachusetts: Bad Scene
So the smart-money favorite in the December election
is not Edwards, the Catholic who ran first with 24 per
Massachusetts has completed its Congressional redis-
cent of the vote, but Johnston, the Baptist who ran second
tricting-and the outlook for Bay State conservatives of
with 18. Another moderate, former Rep. Gillis Long, ran
both parties is worse than ever.
third with 15 per cent. More conservative candidates like
No conservative has represented the state in Congress
two-time former Gov. Jimmie Davis, Lt. Gov. Taddy
since the 1969 death of veteran GOP Congressman Wil-
Aycock, State Sen. John Schwegmann, and Rep. Speedy
liam Bates, whose House seat was taken over by radical
Long, were well back in the pack. But their combined
Democrat Michael Harrington. Just last year, one of the
strength adds up to nearly 30 per cent of the ballots, while
less liberal (and most hawkish) Democrats in the delega-
the votes of the liberal also-rans do not exceed 20 per cent.
tion, Philip Philbin, was unseated in the primary by an-
This has led some observers to predict that Johnston
other radical, Father Robert Drinan. In this year's interim
will take a more conservative line as the election ap-
ACU Key Issues Index, only two members of the 12-man
proaches, since conservative social views have been a
delegation had conservative ratings higher than 15 per
major factor in the Protestant domination of gubernatorial
cent.
runoffs. This pattern obtained in 1964, when the present
It is precisely these two members that the bill signed
Governor, John McKeithen, moved to the right to over-
November 13 by way-out GOP Gov. Francis Sargent, and
take the moderate Catholic Mayor of New Orleans, the
drafted by the Democratic-controlled legislature, is likely
late deLesseps Morrison, who had finished far ahead in
to unseat. Rep. Hastings Keith, whose 50 per cent ACU
the first primary. Johnston is considered somewhat less
rating is liberal for most Republicans but unequalled in
liberal than Edwards to begin with.
Massachusetts, watched helplessly as his home town of
David Treen breezed to victory in the Republican pri-
West Bridgewater was lifted from the already shaky 12th
District, which comprises Cape Cod and much of south-
mary with 93 per cent of the vote. Treen, who twice came
eastern Massachusetts. Keith is now rated a slight under-
within a hair of unseating House Majority Leader Hale
dog to peace Democrat Gerry Studds, who nearly unseated
Boggs in New Orleans, is an articulate conservative with
him last year.
strong financial backing. His chances of winning the Feb-
ruary 1 general election would dramatically improve if
Boston-based Congresswoman Louise Day Hicks (ACU
Edwards wins the runoff, or if Johnston wins it without
Index: 33) is fresh from a disappointing showing in her
moving toward the right.
second run for Mayor and may be in for more frustrations
in her second race for Congress. Not only has her Ninth
District seat been extended far out into suburban areas
Vermont: Mallary Wins
where social conservatism is likely to be less appealing,
Candidates from the more conservative wings of Ver-
but most of her strength in working-class Dorchester has
mont's two parties were nominated for the state's only
been removed. Her main hope for renomination lies in
House seat November 17. Richard W. Mallary, a 42-year-
the proliferation of more liberal Democrats aching to
old dairy farmer, took the Republican nomination with
challenge her. These include State Sen. Robert Cawley,
15,011 votes in a six-man field. His nearest competitor,
architect of the redistricting plan; State Sen. John Joseph
Secretary of State Richard Thomas, got 10,833, while con-
Moakley, who made a strong showing against Mrs. Hicks
servative-turned-liberal State Sen. John Alden placed a
(Continued on Page 8)
Battle Line/December, 1971
Page Seven
132
Chairman's Comment
have a way of affecting not only the orthodox liberals who
Affairs of State
abound in government, but Republicans and conservatives
as well. Solid common sense from state and local con-
By M. Stanton Evans
servatives must penetrate the miasma of liberal confusion
Chairman, American Conservative Union
if any sense of balance is to be maintained.
These words are written on a return trip from the first
For all of these reasons, ACU seeks to encourage for-
annual banquet of the New Jersey Conservative Union-
mation of state affiliates-an undertaking in which NJCU
a state affiliate of ACU.
and other state conservative unions have promised their
In one year's time NJCU has written an organizational
assistance. Just as Dr. Mackensen's group began with
success story with few parallels anywhere in the country,
timely help from Bill Duff and the leaders of the Pennsyl-
one which may provide an example to conservatives in
vania Conservative Union, so the experience of these state
other states concerned to take effective grass-roots action.
leaders can prove invaluable to conservatives in other
My own conviction is that the long-term future of the con-
localities. Those who would like to start such groups are
servative movement will chiefly depend on state and local
invited to contact national ACU headquarters for further
groups established on this pattern.
information.
Some 300 leaders of the NJCU assembled at the Nep-
tune Inn in Paramus to mark the anniversary of the group
and to hear reports on state and national issues. The pro-
(Continued from Page 7)
gram featured remarks by Prof. Henry Paolucci, vice-
in the old district last year; Boston School Committeeman
chairman of the New York Conservative Party, Vietnam
James Hennigan; and David Nelson, a Negro attorney who
hero Dr. James Walker Ralph, and NJCU chairman Dr.
also ran in 1970. But even if an opposition split enables
Heinz Mackensen. Progress of the organization was re-
Mrs. Hicks to survive the primary, she will be vulnerable
counted and plans charted for the coming year.
to challenge from a liberal Republican such as State Sen.
NJCU claims 3,000 members and a well-balanced
John Quinlan of suburban Norwood.
executive board including figures from the academic
The ten liberals in the delegation, seven Democrats and
world, businessmen, media representatives, and practicing
three Republicans, all have safer districts than before. If
politicians. An active membership committee seeks out
a state ever needed a Conservative Party, this is it.
new recruits and a steady flow of names is received by
state headquarters in Hackensack. Participation of young
conservatives is solicited and campus representatives are
Pennsylvania: PCU Grows
prominent on the board.
Elsewhere on this page, ACU Chairman M. Stanton
NJCU interviews and endorses selected candidates for
Evans comments on the growing muscle of the New Jersey
state and local office and acts as a lever of conservative
Conservative Union, one of ACU's most active affiliates.
influence on both major parties. It publishes a regular
It's appropriate to add that NJCU's elder sister, the
newsletter, and has special divisions responsible for
Pennsylvania Conservative Union, has been equally
women's and youth activities. Its major objective for
active across the state line.
1972 is to come up with a conservative replacement, re-
The group has just issued a first-rate analysis of the
gardless of party label, for ultra-liberal Republican Sen.
bloated state budget of liberal Democratic Gov. Milton
Clifford Case.
Shapp. The PCU study recommended cuts of
It was apparent from the size and enthusiasm of the
$942,978,000 from Shapp's $5.7 billion budget. PCU
Paramus meeting that this is a strong and growing or-
Chairman William Duff charged that the Shapp budget
ganization-precisely the kind of organization which can
"is, in truth, a master plan for the socialization of Penn-
bring victory to the conservative cause. New Jersey has
sylvania and should be of great concern to all Pennsyl-
been under liberal bi-partisan dominion for so long that
vanians who are jealous of their freedom." The PCU
the process will not be easy, but there is little doubt from
study, modelled on ACU's study earlier this year of the
what I have seen that Dr. Mackensen and his legions will
Federal budget and one of the first such analyses by a state
eventually get the job done.
conservative group, should add to the level of that con-
ACU is a Washington-based group with a national con-
cern.
stituency, and its energies are focused on events and per-
On other fronts, PCU has joined with the Pennsylvania
sonalities in the national capital. But the balance of forces
chapter of Young Americans for Freedom, as well as the
in Washington can in the final analysis be altered for the
national headquarters of both groups, in a protest cam-
better only by action in the states, and the total sum of our
paign against the reported decision of Mack Truck, Inc. to
distress alleviated only by attention to local as well as
build a truck assembly plant in the Soviet Union. PCU
national issues. In both respects, state conservative groups
has notified state business leaders of the proposed deal
are of crucial importance.
and urged them to write Mack in opposition.
Such groups are important in another sense as well.
PCU announced last month the establishment of a state
Despite its heterogeneous political population, Washing-
speakers' bureau. Like NJCU, the group has joined ACU
ton is a strangely insulated city. Its fads and delusions
in suspending support of the Nixon Administration.
Page Eight
Battle Line/December, 1971
Catholic Vote & 1972
(Political Strategy - 1972 file)
10/4
THE WHITE HOUSE
September WASHINGTON 23, 1971 better the Attrament
Bucharan 20 mary
MEMORANDUM TO:
H. John R. Ehrlichman Haldeman have ARO tranke. I'm
J would Draw Yes
Pat Buchanan Pats views (pahaps withly
Charles Colson
FROM:
the policy mare types- difference They %
toned down) will cat through wall
While this memorandum, for stylistic and obvious reasons, is not sent 1000
to the President would hope that the dissenting views herein expressed,
would be gotten to him before he makes any decision upon the rather
remarkable document I have in hand entitled, "The Catholic Vote and 1972.
For if we are making scheduling, budget and political decisions on the basis
of this remorseless nonsense, then we are going to have to count upon a
Chicago repeat to be back in 1972.
Points that come up after only a rapid reading of the Morey memorandum:
1. Nowhere does one see proper recognition of the hard political fact that
while there are six million Jews in this country, 22, 000, 000 blacks --
there are some 46, 000, 000 Catholic. Not only are the Catholic by far the
hugest bloc of available Democratic votes to win for us -- they
by Mr. Morey's statistics, the easiest to convert.
2. Here is another hard political fact that does not emerge: If the President
could raise himself from say 25 percent of the Catholic vote to 40 percent
of the Catholic vote that would be worth more in terms of absolute vote
than if the President went from 0 percent of the Jewish vote to 100 percen
Since Catholic Democrats are more numerous and easier to win over than
black Democrats and Jewish Democrats, clearly this is where our emphasis
should be placed.
3. Morey contends that "Catholicism" is no longer so binding a factor as it
once was in 1960 with JFK. That is precisely our point. We are not
asking that the President throw in with the mackerel snappers, convert and
become a daily communicant. We are saying that since "Catholicism,
per se, "religious affiliation, 11 is less important than it was in 1960, RN
has a far better chance in 1972 of taking away Catholic voters from a
Catholic candidate, i.c., (Muskic). Indeed, much of Morey's analysis,
a Tyzed
-2-
4. Says Morey, things other than Catholicism are more important to
Catholics. He mentions ethnicity; we don't disagree with that. We endorse
it one hundred percent. The Pre sident should go after the Catholic vote
in a multi-faceted approach. By endorsing the aspirations of ethnics
(Italians, Poles, Irish, Slovaks); by appointing conspicuous ethnics is top
visible federal posts, by his Middle America appeal, in addition to aiding
the schools in which so many of them believe and in which millions upon
millions of Catholics and ethnics have placed their children.
My recommendation is now and has been that the Administration -- in
placing minority members in visible jobs stop concentrating on the
"media's minorities" (Blacks, Mexican Americans, Spanish-speaking) which
are tough to crack, almost solid Democratic -- and begin focusing on the Inc.
ethnic minorities (Irish, Italians, Poles, Slovaks, etc.), the big minoritics
where the President's name is not a dirty word, where the President's
personal beliefs and political actions are more consistent with their own,
When we begin to recognize and act on the idea that there are as many
Italian-Americans in the Bronx as there are Black Americans in Harlem,
we will better begin to serve the President's interests.
As noted in previous memoranda, and proved by Senator Buckley in New
York, there are more "Queens Democrats" than there are "Harlem
Democrats" and they are a hell of a lot easier for a Republican to get.
5. Morey contends that Blacks and Jews and Catholics won for JFK -- but
that is like comparing tangerines to grapefruits to watermelons. One can
say that the "Maltese-Americans" won it for Kennedy. The crucial points
are a) the size of the bloc and b) the winnability of the bloc. On both
counts any politician will tell you the Catholics are where the ducks are.
6. Morey contends there is a trade-off, that aid to Catholic schools will
alienate some Protestants. No one denies this. We may lose some votes.
But where is there recognition of these points. Just as 1) pro-Catholicism
on the part of voters diminished since 1960 -- so, too, has anti-Catholicism.
2) Aid to Catholic schools will no longer kill a candidate in Protestant
areas -- as is clearly evident from the fact that perhaps a dozen states in
the last decade moved that route. 3) Look closely at the trade-off. Are
Protestants, traditionally anti-Catholic, going to vote against Richard Nixon
for some indirect assistance to parochial schools -- and then turn around
and vote for a Catholic Ed Muskie. Hardly. Many of them will not like it.
But very few will go the full route. Morey mentions Milliken gaining votes
among Michigan Catholics, and losing them among upstate Protestants for
coming out for parochial aid. Without any statistics I question that. For
this reason. I can't believe that a reactionary Protestant will vote against
-3-
Milliken for aiding Catholic schools -- when the choice is to turn around
and vote for a long-haired Jewish liberal Democrat, which Milliken ran
against.
In short, our Protestant supporters will be angry, many of them, with this
kind of aid, but fewer than every before, and the overwhelming majority
not so angry as to desert a middle-of-the-road Republican for a Catholic
liberal Democrat.
A phrase used around here recently is appropriate. The WASPS have
"nowhere else to go. 11
7. Where in this entire memo is recognition of the problem this creates
for the other side -- the Democrats. That party is divided between
Establishment liberals and increasingly militant blacks on the one hand
and Roman Catholics on the other, for a simple view. The Jim Buckley
Democrats versus the New York Times Democrats if you will.
When RN comes out for aid to parochial schools, this will drive a weage
right down the Middle of the Democratic Party. The same is true of
abortion; the same is true of hard-line anti-pornography laws. For those
most against aid to Catholic schools, most for abortion, and an end to all
censorship are the New York Times Democrats. And those most violently
for aid to Catholic schools and against abortion and dirty books, are the
Jim Buckley Catholic Democrats.
Rockefeller, in coming out for parochial aid, has recognized this. In
1970 he won over Catholic Democrats in greater numbers. than ever -- while
his upstate Protestants grumbled about aid to Catholic schools, but they
"had no place else to go. 11
8. Morey mentions that "a Gallup Poll conducted in July 1968 indicates that
the voter's choice between McCarthy and Humphrey was not guided by
religious affiliation of the candidate. In fact it was slightly reversed."
This shows an utter lack of understanding of the Catholic Community and
the Catholic issue -- as we sèe it.
Of course, rank-and-file Catholics did not go for McCarthy. The reason
has nothing to do with his religion -- everything to do with his style.
McCarthy is an upper middle class liberal, who hobnobs with radical kids,
who writes poetry, a post-Vatican II peacenik, snobbish, ecumaniac who
apes the Harvard Wasps. Your average lower middle and middle income
-4-
Catholic cannot identify with McCarthy and the Beautiful People; they are
not Gene McCarthy men, they are Dick Daley men. The fellows who join
the K. of C., who make mass and communion every morning, who go on
retreats, who join the Holy Name Society, who fight against abortion in
their legislatures, who send their kids to Catholic schools, who work on
assembly lines and live in Polish, Irish, Italian and Catholic communities
or who have headed to the suburbs these are the majority of Catholics;
they are where our votes are.
Morey's statistics on Catholic clergy uninterested in Catholic schools repea
the same error. The one-third of priests who are not interested in Catholic
schools probably contain the one hundred percent of Catholic clergy who
either endorse or "understand" what the Berrigan boys were trying to do.
What I am saying is that there is a deep division in the Catholic community.
We should be working the Catholic social conservatives -- the clear majori.
As for the Catholic liberals, who ape the Wasp upper East Side liberals
like Southern liberals, they are the worst kind. Converts to Hberalism,
to "right thinking", they outdo the New York Times in their fanaticism for
their "New faith. 11
9. Morey contends that Catholic schools do not seem a really strong issue
among Catholics. How can one say that? Surely, among some Catholics
who have "made it" the improtance of Catholic schools has diminished. But
among those Catholics who deeply believe in their schools, among those who
send 5, 000, 000 of their children to Catholic schools, a 11 religious education'
is a burning issue, and in an age of "permissiveness" bound to stay a
burning issue. Why do I say this? Common sense I think tells us that when
Catholic pressure in the 1960s can bring Protestant legislatures in state
after state to vote aid for their schools that shows interest, concern and
power. Secondly, running the Catholic school system in an "extra tax"
upon Catholics of one estimates runs five billion dollars a year. Any
group willing to pony up an extra five billion in taxes, to educate its
children a different way from the free public schools is a group whose
interests ought to be reckoned with.
10. Catholic schools as an issue can be compared with "gun control" and
"aid to Israel. " It is an issue on which a minority of Americans, i.e.
conservative Catholics, are SO deeply concerned that their votes can be
switched on that issue along. For the majority who may disagree, it is not
a "voting issue. 11
Thus, while eighty percent of the people favor gun control, if you come out
too strong for it, you win next to nothing, but you have ten or fifteen percen
of the electorate working night and day to see you defeated. (See: Joe
Tydings, circa 1970, and Joe Clark, circa 1968)
11. In 1960 because he could not lose the Catholic vote; it was in his
pocket, it had "no place else to go," JFK could come out against aid
to Catholic schools -- working the Protestant side of the street. That
was where the ducks were for him. Quite naturally, ours are over there,
in the Catholic community.
12. Just look at Muskie himself, and his tergiversations over the Catholic
issue. He waffles on abortion; he has refused to speak out on Catholic
schools; he has a split party; and the more we force these "splitting" issues
the better for the President.
13. The final argument against aid to Catholic schools is that it drew
"extremely negative responses" from the NEA, and "others involved in
public education". that could "well alienate 1. 8 million public school teacher
For Christ sake, anti-Catholic publis schools teachers are not the Presider
constituent; as for the NEA, and its lobby they have made an avocation d
cutting the President's throat. We are Never going to get people like that
why should we be solicitious about offending them if it can get us votes
elsewhere.
Indeed, the fact that it would "frost" the NEA is one of the more appealing
arguments for going ahead with aid to parochial schools.
14. When we move on aid to parochial schools, it can be done through the
mechanism of vouchers and tax credits, which is the least offensive to
everyone, and most acceptable. Which would minimize any losses -- and
we could through the Catholic media and Catholic outlets, maximize the gain
If the President can go up 15 percent among Catholics, that would be worth
more than getting 100 percent of the Jewish vote, and worth more than
going from ten percent to forty percent among blacks.
Any my view is that it is one hell of a lot easier thing to do, because
conservative Republicans, i. e., James Buckley, ha ve shown that it is a
realistic political alliance. Morey supports this point by indicating
Goldwater's gains among Catholics in New York.
15. Finally, there is a potential, latent majority out there -- available for
the President which we have failed to put together. It consists of the
President's WASP and white-collar conservative base -- added to it
Southern Protestants and Northern, Midwestern and Western Catholics.
Morey is right in that parochial school aid alone will not win it for us.
When that is put together, not everyone in that coalition will agree on
every issue -- but they will agree on enough. Southern Protestants will
not like aid to Northern Catholic schools -- but the bonds that hold that
coalition together will be stronger than those forcing it apart. (Indeed,
Roosevelt's coalition of Southern whites plus Southern blacks had far more
inconsistencies than our potential coalition has).
And Morey is right in that we ought not to rely on one appeal -- whether it
be aid to parochial schools or what. It should be multi-faceted; it has to be.
A mixture of social conservativism, which is a majority view nationally, pl:
economic assistance and visability appointments and, for the Democrats
who are willing to go half-way with the President, not the Democrats who
detest him. Thus, instead of sending the orders out to all our oncies
hire blacks and women the order should go out hire ethnic Catholics
preferable women, for visible posts. One example: Italian Americans,
unlike blacks, have never had a Supreme Court member -- they are deeply
concerned with their "criminal" image; they do not dislike the President.
Give those fellows the "Jewish seat" or the "black seat". on the Court when
it becomes available.
Regrettably, neither our budget or our political emphasis seems to me to
reflect these realities.
True, there will be losses from this kind of strategy. Josiah Lee Auspitz
will be very angry with us. But the Republican Party is a last-place ball
club; living in Washington, one can understand that. To win we have to
make "trade-offs." To come out of the cellar we may have to give up
Frank Howard. One should recall that recently a poll showed that
Independents have passed Republican and we are now only 22 percent
of the vote. One reason why can be found sitting in the Legislative
Leadership meeting -- and looking at all those WASPs.
If the GOP is to become a national majority party it will be because of
fellows like Cahill in New Jersey and Volpe in Mass who hold our base --
and add to it the Catholics who were Democratic from time immemorial.
There is a clear potential majority out there. The President could be the
new Roosevelt, who put it together, or he could be the last of the liberal
Presidents. But to put it together requires a "leap in the dark," it means
"pushing our skiff from the shore alone;" it means telling John Chancellor
and the New York Times that, no, we have not dore anything for the blacks
this week, but we have named a Pole to the Cabinet and an Italian Catholic
to the Supreme Court.
-7-
In an oversimplified way, the reason the President is at 42 percent of
whatever it is that we have not broken out of our minority base. In DA y
heretical view, we are never, never going to do it with public relations.
The President is not Eisenhower; he did not lead the armies ashore agains
Hitler's Europe. We are not going to build any new majorities on the
Nixon personality, or the admitted Nixon personal political skill. We need
to do it with issues and budget dollars, and we are not.
Let us assume that, for one, RN tubed OEO the day he took office, and had
spent the $5 billion we have wasted on that pit since then -- on providing
tax credits for non-public schools. That is just one example. From here
it does not appear we have a political "strategy" which is being imposed
upon the bureaucrats and budget makers; the latter seem more responsive
to media pressure than the imperatives of the President's and the party's
long run political interests.
If there must be unemployment to halt inflation, why are Southern California
aerospace workers unemployed -- instead of liberal school teachers, social
workers and poverty consessionaires. These latter aren't for us anyway.
Instead of buying off media hostility, that massive Federal budget should
have bought us by now a new majority, should have bought new friends for
Richard Nixon, should have bought him a place in the history books as the
Republican who got it all together.
Chesterton once wrote in defense of his faith, that "It cannot really be said
that Christianity has failed; because it cannot really be said that Christianity
has been tried. 11 The quote may be off; but is apposite. The new Republican
Majority in this country is not a disproven myth; it has not seriously been
tried.
P.S. We are not doing the President any favors by sending in to him,
uncriticized, memorandum on politics of the vapidity of the document that
came to me. I know the affection for Kevin Phillips is well contained in
the West Wing; but he is a genius of sorts; and the White House might well
hire him for one week -- his political agency -- on a confidential basis --
to assess the labors of the Morey team.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 16, 1971
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
KEN COLE
ED HARPER
FROM:
ROY MOREY Roy
SUBJECT:
The Catholic Vote and 1972
This memo briefly outlines the voting behavior of Catholics in the
1960 election, the Catholic electorate today and political trade offs
involved in attempting to woo the Catholic vote in 1972.
I.
The Catholic Vote in 1960
Before discussing the Catholic vote in 1972, it is necessary
to briefly review the 1960 election because it will be used
as an historic referent -- especially if either Muskie
or Kennedy is the Democratic nominee. The following is a
list of major conclusions about the voting behavior of
Catholics and the issue of Catholicism in the 1960 election:
1. There was a significant Catholic vote in 1960.
According to the Gallup poll Catholic support for
a Democratic nominee increased from 51 percent
in 1956, to 78 percent in 1960. Furthermore, 62
percent of the Catholics who voted for Eisenhower in
1956, actually voted for Kennedy in 1960. While only
3 percent of the Catholics who voted for Stevenson in
1956 switched to Nixon. This does not mean, however,
that during the mid-1950s Catholics were leaving the
Democratic Party only to return to the fold in 1960
when the Democrats offered a Catholic candidate. The
Gallup results show that in the 1958 Congressional
elections 75 percent of the Catholic voters supported
Democratic candidates. The GOP appeal to Catholics
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
2
in 1956 seemed to be more attributable to the magic
of Ike, rather than a desertion from the Democratic
Party. However, as will be pointed out later, the
Democratic appeal to Catholics in 1960 may have been
a high watermark not to be achieved again.
2.
The Catholic vote alone was not sufficient for Kennedy's
victory.
While it is true that there was a sizable shift in the
Catholic vote toward Kennedy, there were other shifts
in the electorate which indicate that in addition to the
Catholic vote, Kennedy relied on increased Democratic
votes among Blacks, Jews and other groups to win. Gallup
reports that on a national basis, the votes of Jews increased
from 75 percent to 81 percent Democratic over 1956 and
the votes of Blacks from 61 percent to 68 percent. In 1960,
Illinois and Texas together accounted for 51 electoral votes.
Out of approximately 4.7 million votes cast in Illinois,
Kennedy's margin of victory was only 8, 858. A shift of
4, 500 votes by any group -- Catholics, Blacks, Jews, etc,
would have been enough to make the difference, In Texas,
Kennedy's margin was 46, 233 out of 2.3 million votes cast.
Here again, a shift by as many as 25,000 Blacks, Catholics,
Jews, etc, would have made the difference in carrying the
state. The point is that the Catholic vote alone was not the
single factor which gave Kennedy a victory in 1960.
3. The religious issue cut both ways in 1960.
While some Catholics swung to Kennedy, it is clear that
Protestants who had formally voted Democratic swung
away. The best estimates indicate that probably as much
as 10 percent of the electorate shifted both ways on the
religious issue and in terms of aggregate popular vote,
the swing away from Kennedy because of his religious
affiliation cost him 1.5 million votes or 2. 3 of the total
popular vote.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
3
4. The net results of religious shifting favored Kennedy.
While Kennedy's Catholicism lost him popular votes,
it still helped him more than it hurt him in the election.
This is due to the fact that Catholics were disproportionately
located in closely divided large electoral vote states. The
best evaluation of the probable effect of the religious issue
in 1960 is the MIT simulation project conducted by Pool,
Abelson and Popkin (Candidates, Issues and Strategies,
1964). According to their calculation Kennedy lost, by
the religious issue, the following states he otherwise
would have won: Kentucky (10), Tennessee (11), Florida (10),
Oklahoma (8), Montana (4), Idaho (4), Utah (4), California (32),
Oregon (6), Virginia (12), and Washington (9), He won the
following states he would have otherwise lost: Connecticut (32),
New York (45), New Jersey (16), Pennsylvania (32), Illinois
(27), and New Mexico (4). Hence, according to this best-fit
simulation, Kennedy achieved a net gain of 22 electoral
votes because of the religious issue.
On balance, it appears that Kennedy was hurt somewhat
in the Southern and Border states and perhaps in the Midwest
andMountain states as well, but he more than made up for
it in the Northern and Midwestern industrial states whose
electoral votes were far larger.
According to a study that was done several years ago on
Wisconsin, Democratic candidates for Congress in Wisconsin
suffered defeat in close districts probably because of Protestant
defection due to Kennedy's candidacy. This is interesting to
keep in mind in a state which is over 33 percent Catholic.
The Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan
published a study several years ago which indicates that
there was a net loss in the popular vote because of Kennedy's
religious affiliation. The study estimated what was the "normal"
votes of Catholics and Protestants for Democratic Presidential
candidates and then calculated the 1960 divergence from this
hypothetical norm, they concluded Kennedy lost about 2.2%
of the two party vote, with the largest portion of the
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
4
defections coming from the South. The two-edged
nature of the religious issue is an important factor
to keep in mind looking toward 1972.
II.
The Catholic Vote Today
The 1960 election was atypical, because not only was there
a Catholic candidate running, but Catholicism itself was an
issue. In fact, the Kennedy forces found it profitable to make
Catholicism an issue. According to an informal conversation
with Lou Harris, the decision by Kennedy on how to handle
the Catholic issue was based on key state polling. The decision
seemed to be to lay out Catholicism in full view as an issue as
a calculated risk to pick up Catholic votes in key electoral
states, knowing full well that other states were not going to be
picked up. This informed gamble paid off for Kennedy.
Today, the situation is substantially different. While it is
true that Catholics are still more likely to vote Democratic
than Protestants, they are less likely to vote as Catholics.
A Gallup poll conducted in July, 1968, indicates that the
voters' choice between McCarthy and Humphrey was not guided
by religious affiliation of the candidate. In fact, it was slightly
reversed. The religious affiliation of a candidate is simply far
less important (including Catholic voters favoring Catholic
candidates) than it was in 1960. In fact, Scammon and Wattenberg
contend that "today Catholicism seems thoroughly dead as a
political issue. " There are several reasons for the decline in
importance of the Catholic affiliation.
1. 1960 was billed as a test case and now that that hurdle
has been cleared it is far less important in the minds
of most Catholics. In analyzing voting behavior, one
finds that a social factor like religion or ethnicity would
become important temporarily during the political campaign
and become relatively unimportant subsequently.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
5
2.
Group identification is politically important if it is
in a group which has a bearing on social status
such as race or ethnicity. Within recent years, religion
has become far less important in determining social
status than it once was; yet the same thing cannot be
said for race and ethnicity. Poles, Puerto Ricans,
and Mexican-Americans maintain ethnic identification
but do not necessarily look upon themselves as
Polish-Catholics, Mexican-American Catholics, etc.
3.
There has been considerable movement and economic
mobility among Catholics in the past decade, and today
most Catholics are middle income types who do not
live in the central cities. As they have become more
affluent and have moved to the suburbs, they tend to
identify less with Catholicism as a political issue and
more with general social and economic issues. For
the ethnic blue collar Catholic who remains in the city,
issues such as race, community control of the schools,
crime and patriotism have largely replaced Catholicism
as a major political issue.
While it is true today that blue collar and retired Catholics
lean in the Democrat direction, one should not over look
Goldwater's gains among city Catholics in New York and
Nixon's gains among New York City Catholics and the
ethnic Catholic Congressional District of Pucinski and
Derwinski in Chicago. One may ask whether the voter
is Catholic or Protestant, but of much greater significance is
the question is the voter rich or poor, Black or White,
employed or unemployed an urban or suburban dweller,
etc.
III.
Issues of Interest to Catholics
The point has been made previously that in attempting to woo
the Catholic vote, perhaps one need not appeal to Catholics
as Catholics. In fact, as will be discussed in the next section,
there are definite risks in attempting to woo Catholics as
Catholics.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
6
According to Tully Plesser, President of the Cambridge
Marketing Group in New York, unpublished data he
collected in June indicates that the major issues among
Catholics are not related to Catholicism but rather to
general economic and social conditions. Catholics seem
to be more concerned with tax levels, tax increases and
general problems in the environmental area. No doubt
most of those interviewed do not live in the central city
areas and these concerns would reflect a point made earlier
about the movement and economic mobility of Catholics.
It could well be that the issue of aid to parochial schools is
of concern to an increasing minority of Catholics who in fact
have their children in Catholic schools. The issue of parochial
aid is of greatest importance to inner-city dwellers and at the
heart of their concern is the question of autonomy and
community control of the schools and racial separation. The
ethnic blue collar urban Catholics are on the firing line of
the racial problems that plague our city cores. They believe
in maintaining control of their schools, (parochial) as much
as they believe in the virtues of a Catholic education.
There are numerous reasons why Catholic elementary schools
are on the decline, and only some of these reasons relate to
higher operating costs. Other important reasons for their
decline include: a) movement of Catholic ethnic groups into
suburbs that already had academically superior public schools,
b) upward mobility, which places more emphasis on using family
funds for college, c) elimination of Protestant biases in public
schools, d) the loss of teaching clergy. The point is that the
issues of greatest concern to most Catholics may not be strictly
Catholic issues in nature such as aid to parochial schools.
Furthermore, the parochial aid issue is complicated and many
Catholics may either contribute to the decline of these schools,
or are relatively unconcerned about the problem. The same
may be said for Catholic clergy. A 1970 Gallagher Presidents'
Report Survey found that 35. 4 percent of the active Roman
Catholic priests affirm that the Church should discontinue or
abandon its schools.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
7
IV. Conclusions, Strategic Implications and Trade Offs
Since in the minds of many, winning the Catholic vote is
translated to a position on the question of aid to parochial
schools, many of the points in this section are related to
that issue. The point should not be lost, however, that
one can woo Catholics without favoring public aid to parochial
schools. One should recognize that most Catholics may not
rank the plight of parochial schools as an issue of major
concern to them, and that religious identification as a
significant political variable has declined in recent years.
1. The parochial school aid question is a two-edged sword.
While it may be possible to pick up a few votes among
urban Catholics, one stands the risk of alienating Protestant
voters. On the national level, one must remember that two
out of every three voters are Protestants and the proportion
would be much higher in most of our key states (see Tab A).
In Illinois and Michigan, for example, this is a sensitive
issue which cuts both ways. The strength of the GOP in
Illinois is in the largely Protestant suburbs and out-state
vote. In Michigan last year, Governor Milliken pushed
through the Legislature a program for aid to non-public
schools. This gained him a few Catholic votes in Detroit,
and probably lost him more among Protestant out-state
Republicans. The school aid program he favored was
overwhelmingly rejected in a referendum vote.
Where the parochial aid issue may mean the most, that is
among urban blue collar and largely ethnic Catholics, we
are least apt to attract strongly committed Democrats. In
the case of a few areas in Chicago, if we win these types,
it may be for reasons other than parochial aid, anyway.
The most heavily Catholic states like Massachusetts
and Rhode Island, went for Al Smith in 1928, Hubert
Humphrey in 1968, and no doubt will go Democratic
once again in 1972 regardless of the President's
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
8
position on aid to parochial schools.
2.
Even if a Catholic is nominated by the Democrats
one must recognize that religious identification appeal
is not constant for all candidates. According to Tulley
Plesser, Edward Kennedy has a considerably stronger appeal
among Catholics as a Catholic than does Muskie, despite
the fact that they are both Catholics. The point here is
that part of the strategy of wooing the Catholic vote
must depend upon the Democrat opponent. If the opponent
is Muskie, his Catholic appeal per se, will be a reduced
factor. Jackson is a Presbyterian and the indications are
clear that Lindsay might have a difficult time pulling the
urban Catholic vote no matter what he does.
3. One may not have to agree with Scammon and Wattenberg
that Catholicism as an issue is dead, but the fact is that
1960 was a high watermark in the history of the importance
of this issue. In its decline, it probably still lingers in the
minds and hearts of anti-Catholic Protestants more than
it does among Catholics. If so, we must look carefully at
the Protestant strength found in most of our key states.
4. The parochial aid issue may not be that important in the
minds of most Catholics. There are approximately 4
million Catholic children enrolled in Catholic schools,
and almost twice that number (approximately 7, 788, 000)
enrolled in public schools.
5.
There are other appeals on general social and economic
issues which may be more significant to Catholics than
an appeal on parochial aid. These include taxes, crime,
basic values, patriotism, and equality of opportunity.
Obviously in many areas, there is a significant over-
lap between ethnic and religious affiliation. Ethnic
identification is must the stronger and this should be
kept in mind in making an appeal. The same could
be said for Spanish-speaking Americans in Florida,
Texas and California.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
9
6. By coming down too hard on the issue of aid to
parochial schools, not only do we run the risk of
alienating Protestant voters, but more directly
we could alienate the well organized and active
1. 8 million public school teachers in this country.
The President's recent statement on Catholic aid
drew extremely negative responses from not only
the NEA but others involved in public education as
well.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
PERCENTAGE OF STATE WIDE CATHOLIC POPULATION
13.6
27.4
21.3
29.1
VT 32.
2
27.1
11.0
NH 37.2
33.4
Mass -52.4
36.4
7.5
13.7
21.1
27.2
RI -63.7
CT -45.1
18.9
31.4
NJ - 40.9
4.8
20.5
DEL - 23.2
21.5
17.8
13.7
MD - 11.3
31.5
5.8
DC - 49.5
17.9
5.3
20.6
14.3
16.5
11.0
1.3
2.4
34.2
4.6
2.9
1.8
19.2
3.8
2.0
2.4
37.6
18.2
13:2
US Total Percent: 23.9%
0 to 15% - Blue
16 to 30% - White
31 to 64% - Red
and
17.5
28.10
Sources: 1971 Catholic Almanac
Children Attending Non-Public Elementary and Secondary
Schools
34.3
9.6
Vt 7.5
12.2
11.1
100.0
20.2
4.4
NH 22.3
10.0
154.0
Mass-
667.8
2.2
173.9
215.0
RI 33.7
63.6
470.1
NJ 275.0
4.2
41.7
318. 0
DC 18.5
3.6
396.0 89.3
Del 16.9
299.7
27.0
11.0
Md 90.6
33.1
60.0
27.8
121.2
11.8
16.5
21.6
8.7
10.3
9.2
8.1
13.2
17.5
14.7
92.0
118.9
.7
78.0
15. 0
:
Less than 10% - White
10% to 15% - Blue
Over 15% - Red
Cacholic School Enrollment (in thousands)
THE WHITE HOUSE
Betty-
WASHINGTON
Date 10/1/71
TO:
Gordon Strachan
FROM: Roy Morey
F. Y.I.
Louis Harris and Associates, Inc.
Questions and results taken from material
prepared for use on "National Polling Day:
The Surprising Americans" produced by ABC
Television News in association with Louis
Harris and Associates, Inc.
April 16, 1971
Page 1
Total
public
Catholics
$
%
1. In general, over the past ten years, do you feel that
America has become a tetter place to live, a worse place to
live, or is it just about the way it was ten years ago?
Better place to live
30
33
Worse place to live
43
44
About the same
24
21
Not sure
3
2
2. Compared with ten years ago, would you say morality in
the United States is lower today, higher, or not changed much?
Lower
65
70
Higher
10
9
Not changed much
21
19
Not sure
4
2
3. Compared to what it was in your parents' day, do you feel
that respect by children for their parents has declined. increased.
or not changed much?
Declined
77
72
Increased
4
5
Not changed much
17
19
Not sure
2
4
4. Compared to what it was in your parents' day, do you
feel that the pressures of day-to-day living have increased,
declined, or not changed much?
Increased
84
84
Declined
5
5
Not changed much
9
9
Not sure
2
2
Page 2
Total
public
Catholics
de
89
5.
As an American have you often, sometimes, or hardly ever
felt upset because (Read list)?
(Often and Sometimes combined)
a.
Some people in this country still go hungry.
85
88
b.
of the way blacks have been discriminated against
for 300 years.
65
67
c.
Of the way our highways and parks are polluted by
empty beer cans and soft drink bottles.
89
90
6.
Now I want to ask you about people you might personally
know about. Do you know anyone or not who (Read List)?
(For each "KNOW SOMEONE") Is that someone close to you or not?
(Close to me)
1. Overeats too much
55
50
2. Has a chronically ill member of the family
29
28
3. Has family quarrels quite often
26
26
4. Has an unfaithful wife or husband
13
13
5. Is lonely most of the time
23
24
6. Gambles too much
(0
CO
7. Drinks too much
27
26
8. Has no real friends
10
12
9. Has a child who has tried mari Juana
13
14
10. Has a mentally disturbed member of the family 18
18
7.
Now let me read you some statements. For each, tell me
if you tend to agree or disagree with the statement.
(Agree)
a. People with real get-up-and-go
never will go hungry.
82
81
b. Blacks are too pushy about wanting
equality now, before they are ready.
52
47
c. Returnable bottles and cans are too
much trouble to bother with.
30
34
Page 3
Total
public
Catholics
%
%
8.
Would you be willing or not willing to (Read List ?
a. Ride to and from work in a car pool every day
to help relieve pollution and traffic congestion.
Willing
82
79
Not Willing
14
17
Not Sure
4
4
b. Pay 15% more for your groceries to insure that
all packaging could be recycled for use again.
Willing
23
21
Not Willing
68
71
Not Sure
9
8
c. Have a low-cost housing project in your
neighborhood.
Willing
60
51
Not Willing
36
44
Not Sure
4
5
d. Have children of a different race bussed to
school in your neighborhood to achieve racial
balance.
Willing
47
48
Not Willing
46
44
Not Sure
7
8
e. Give up a wage increase to fight inflation.
Willing
48
44
Not Willing
40
45
Not Sure
12
11
f. Cover up for a member of your family who
was an alcoholic to protect his Job.
Willing
28
34
Not Willing
60
56
Not Sure
12
10
-End-
File
January 4, 1971
Memorandum For: H. R. Haldeman
From: Charlie McWhorter
In accordance with your kind note of December 11,
I am setting forth some additional comments about what
might be considered as we get ready for 1972. As I am sure
you are aware, the Administration currently has a serious
problem of GOP morale, but it is a situation which I believe
can be turned into a positive advantage. The problem stems
from many factors--some valid and a great many others of
lesser substance. In any event, I would hope that during
the intervening months steps will be taken to bring about a
much greater sense of identification with the President and
the Administration on the part of elected and party officials
and rank and file party workers.
The average voter is not greatly affected by the
type of things which need to be done in this regard since he
has no expectation of any particular interest by the President
or Administration in his individual problems. However,
elected and party officials do require special handling be-
cause of their established role in the political process.
Means must be found which are effective in accomplishing this
objective without alienating ordinary voters who more and
more seem to turn away from emphasis on purely partisan
concerns. This is not an impossible task, and in fact there
are many facets of this general problem which can be turned
into an advantage with the general public.
White House Liaison with Party
1. If possible, an informal event should be held at
the White House honoring the members of the National
Finance Committee, State Chairmen and National
Committee during their meetings on January 13-16, 1971.
The Vice President and members of the Cabinet and
their wives should be urged to attend if possible.
In addition, the President should attend the national
fund-raising dinner at the Washington Hilton Hotel
on March 24, 1971. In his participation in these
- 2 -
events the President should stress that he must
necessarily concentrate his interest in non-
partisan activities that contribute to the overall
success of his Administration for the next year
or SO. He can emphasize that he is sure they will
understand and support his decision to provide the
broad-gauged leadership which Americans expect and
demand of the President during this phase of his
Administration.
2. The choice of a new National Chairman should be
handled in such a way that key members of the
Republican National Committee are included in the
process. Recognition should be given to the almost
unanimous view of party officials and Governors that
the National Chairman be a "full-time" Chairman and
not a member of Congress. If the President wants a
member of Congress as National Chairman in order to
have an effective partisan spokesman, then a very
strong full-time "Director of Organization" should
be designated to have the primary responsibility
for party building activity and be given prominent
leadership recognition.
White House Liaison with Governors
On several occasions the President has stressed
his intention to have close cooperation between the
Administration and the various Governors. The Vice
President's recent meeting with Republican Governors at
Sun Valley resulted in a positive statement which stressed
his interest in improving liaison procedures and his
commitment to attend all future meetings of both the
National Governors and Republican Governors. In my opinion,
the following should also be considered:
1. The President should take some active part in the
winter meeting of the National Governors Conference
in Washington on February 23-25, again stressing
his broad-gauged approach to public issues.
2. The Vice President should send a letter to the
various Governors indicating that he would be
willing, subject to scheduling convenience, to
spend a day at the State Capitol of each Governor
who desired this for the purpose of reviewing
with the individual Governor and key members of
his state administration the problems of Federal-
State programs. While it may be that not all 50
Governors would respond, I am sure there would be
- 3 -
a substantial response which would serve not only
a worthwhile substantive purpose, but would also
provide the Vice President with a positive and
noncontroversial reason for visiting in the various
states on behalf of the Administration.
3. A systematic procedure should be set forth so that
at least once each month a call is initiated by a
member of the Vice President's staff to the principal
assistant for each of the 50 Governors to keep in
close contact with their respective offices.
4. A systematic procedure should be set forth SO that
at least once each month a call is initiated by a
member of Herb Klein's staff to the Press Secretary
for each Republican Governor to keep in close
contact with their respective offices.
Organizational Activities for 1972
In my opinion, there should be an immediate
examination on a state by state basis of the problems
facing our party between now and 1972. This would certainly
include an examination of the health of existing state and
local party organizations; prospects for various races for
state office and U. S. Senate and House of Representatives;
reapportionment of congressional and legislative districts;
party finances; and direction of the 1972 Presidential
campaign in each state. This examination should proceed
even though it is obviously not possible to resolve all of
the various problems which will be noted in the various states.
It may well be that there should be a division of responsibility
for those who are concentrating on the 1972 Presidential
campaign in a given state and those who are working on party
and statewide problems. The urgency of this matter is
increased by the fact that there has been a deterioration of
party organization in many states since 1968 and because the
Democrats are already setting up organization on behalf of
Presidential candidates in key states.
If you would like to have a more detailed develop-
ment of any of these or other related matters, I would
certainly be glad to cooperate.
CC: Robert H. Finch
John D. Ehrlichman
Herbert G. Klein
Harry S. Dent
White House
Conference
on Youth
Heedni bee
Bob-
Fle
I think these will
be of interest to Im.
Best,
Steve Hiss
WY
STEPHEN HESS
3705 PORTER STREET, N.W.
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20016
November 24, 1971
Editor
Washington Post
Sir:
In order to correct a bad situation -- the way
presidential campaigns are now financed-- the Congress
appears about to create a system that may have even more
dire consequences. For the proposal to establish a
public subsidy for presidential) nominees could lead
to a permanent multi-political-party arrangement in
this country.
This is what could result from the so-called
checkoff plan:
1. It guarantees that George Wallace will run
for President in 1972 and gives supporters a
permanent base as apolitical party. Under the
proposed law, Wallace, on the basis of his vote total
in 1968, would automatically receive in excess of
$6 million merely by declaning his candidacy, while,
at the same time, he could still raise nearly $14
million from the private sector without Forfeiting his
Federal subsidy.
2. It greatly increases the likelihood of a
fourth party presidential candidate from the Far Left. For
if such a candidate received 5 percent of the popular
vote his expenses would be publicly reimbursed. Running
for President now becomes an acceptable gamble. And,
of course, once a party gets 5 percent of the vote
it is in business for the next presidential election.
3. Given the present dissatisfaction with Presi-
dent Nixon among some conservative leaders, it may also
be that the possibility of Federal underwriting could
produce a Far Right candidate for President next year.
Even if this failed to materialize, it is not hard
to hypothosize a national fifth party of this
persuasion some time in the future.
-2-
In short, the Senate has offered a considerable
lure to those who would prefer not to resolve their
differences within the two-party system. Now
members of the House of Representatives, who
will have to vote on this bill next week, should
ask themselves whether potential proliferation of
political parties is in the public interest.
Clearly the inherent instability of a multi-party
system was amply demonstrated in pre- and post-
World War II France.
The proposed law not only assures the perpetua-
tion of a racist-oriented third party, with George
Wallace and his heirs on the ballot until such
time as their support drops below 5 percent, but it
could equally insure that future presidential
elections are decided in the House of Representatives,
where each state would cast one vote, and the balance
of power would swing to the small, low-population
states.
Thus, it is ironic that many urban liberals,
rightly concerned with devising a more equitable
method of campaign financing, also well may be
creating a racist, anti-urban method of choosing
our Presidents.
Stephen Hess
STEPHEN HESS
3705 PORTER STREET, N. W.
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20016
November 24, 1971
The Editor
New York Times
Sir:
Tom Wicker, in the Times of November 21,
rightly opposes the Senate-passed plan to
subsidize presidential campaigns from public
monies, but, in this observer's opinion, does so in
part for the wrong reason.
He writes of the income tax checkoff proposal:
"Obviously, with its greater benefits to the major
parties, it would tend to perpetuate them as major
parties; minor parties would be put at severe and
unwarranted disadvantage. Where is it written and
on what tablets of stone that Democrats and
Republicans are ordained from on high and endowed
with special privilege?"
The plan in practice would have exactly the
opposite effect: encouraging the proliferation
of splinter party candidates for president and
potentially creating the sort of multi-party
system that produced chaos in France before and
after World War II.
While there is no Constitutional sanction
for the two-party system, in fact it is highly
unlikely that either major party will go out
of business without a Federal subsidy. Neither
party has lost a presidential election in the
past because it lacked resources to tell its
story. This is not to say that the present system
of financing campaigns is any good. It isn't. I
am only trying to make the point that the proposed
subsidy does not really give the major parties
any advantage that they don't already have.
-2-
On the other hand, what will be the effect
of the tax checkoff on potential splinter
party candidates?
It will certainly guarantee that George
Wallace will run in 1972 Why not? Under the new
plan he would automatically get more that $6
million from the government without any restraints
on his raising an additional $14 million privately.
Moreover, there would continue to be a racist-
oriented third party in every presidential
election until its support drops below 5 percent.
There would be a greater chance of a fourth
party of the Far Left in 1972 because the new
plan assures that if such a candidate receives
5 percent of the vote his expenses will be retro-
actively reimbursed from the Treasury. The same
applies to a candidate of the Far Right; while
this is politically less likely in 1972, it is
hardly inconceivable for 1976 or 1980.
The possibility of five substantial presidential
candidates, even four, greatly increases the likeli-
good that more and more elections will be decided
by the House of Representatives, where constitu-
tionally each state will cast one vote, and the
balance of power will swing to the rural, less-
populated states.
The grand irony is that the checkoff system,
strongly supported by urban liberals, could create
a racist, anti-urban means of choosing our Presidents.
Stephen Hess
This wm written as an op-ed article for the
new your Time... nt they've now held it over 2 months!
Revised November 3, 1971
THE YOUTH VOTE AND THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
BY STEPHEN HESS
A front-page headline in the New York Times of September 20
proclaims YOUNG VOTERS MAY CHANGE MAKE-UP OF CONGRESS IN '72. A more
accurate, if somewhat more cumbersome, headline would be YOUNG VOTERS
PROBABLY WILL MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MAKE-UP OF CONGRESS IN
'72.
The substance of Times reporter Warren Weaver's story is that
young voters next year have the potential to defeat 31 of 33 Senators
up for reelection and 70 per cent of the members of the House of
Representatives for whom figures are available. He reaches this con-
clusion by determining that in these districts "the number of newly
eligible voters exceeds the margin by which the incumbent was elected
the last time he ran
"
Fortunately for these legislators (ff not necessarily the nation),
the Times article--and a good deal of the conventional wisdom about the
youth vote--is hugely misleading.
-2-
With only modest refinement of Mr. Weaver's figures, it is possible
to contend that the onslaught of youth ballots is more likely to defeat two
(not 31) Senators and 14 Members of the House of Representatives (not 280).
I
The only new factor in the 1972 election equation is the vote of those
enfranchised by the Constitution's 26th Amendment. Next year the number of
18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds will be slightly in excess of 11 million out of a
voting population of 139,563,000, or 8 per cent of the electorate.
Mr. Weaver rightly reports that "some political statisticians have made
a broad national estimate that only about half of the new young eligibles
will vote and that about two-thirds of those who do will probably vote
Democratic."
Voting participation in our society seems like fine wine to ripen with
age. Historically, younger people simply have not gone to the polls as
frequently as their elders. For example, in a Maryland Congressional election
last May to fill the seat vacated by Rogers Morton, the 18-to 20-year-olds
made up 2.5 per cent of the total vote cast, while comprising 8.6 per cent
of the district's voters.
Nevertheless given the novelty of voting for the first time and given
the special efforts that will be made to get youth registered, it is reasonable
to assume that there will be a 50 per cent turnout among young voters in 1972.
Public opinion surveys consistently show a 2 to 1 Democratic preference
among the young, although the links to both parties are weak Ideologically
E
-3-
youth also splits 2 to 1, liberal over conservative. The massive survey of
college freshmen conducted by the American Council on Education in the fall
of 1970 indicates 36.6 per cent on the left of the political spectrum and
18.1 per cent on the right.
Thus postulating a 50 per cent turnout and 2-1 Democratic split, what is
youth's likely impact on next year's Congressional races?
In Senate elections the application of this formula would produce the
defeat of two Republican incumbents, Oregon's Mark Hatfield and John Tower of
Texas.
Yet here we see the difficulty of trying to fit the youth vote into a
statistical mold. Hatfield is a liberal. (Are young people liberals first
and then Democrats?) Tower is a Southener. (Are Southern youth as liberal
as their Northern counterparts?)
Moreover neither Hatfield at 49 nor Tower at 46 is a senatorial fuddy-
duddy. And there is plenty of evidence that style may be more important than
ideology or party label to young people. Take the considerable attraction to
youth of conservatives William Brock (R., , Tenn.) and James Buckely (R.,N.Y.).
Excluding the House races in New York, where Census Bureau figures have
not yet been compiled by age group, what is note-worthy about the 14 Republican
Congressmen who might be expected to fall victims to the youth vote is that 12
of them are first-, second-, or third-termers. The only veterans to be
threatened by the 26th Amendment are Alvin O'Konski of Wisconsin (second-ranking
{
-4-
Republican on the Armed Services Committee) and Hastings Keith of Massachusetts
(fourth-ranking Republican on the Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee).
Allotting a two-thirds "liberal" youth vote in the South to the
Republicans would likewise make virtually no difference on the make-up of
the 93d Congress, although it could unseat James Haley of Florida, rated the
most conservative Democrat in the House by Americans for Constitutional
Action.
Of course districts in which there are significant concentrations of
students could produce statistically improbable upsets, and election-watchers
might follow with special interest the fates of such Congressional powerhouses
1
as Tom Steed (University of Oklahoma), Harley Staggers (University of West
Virginia), Frank Ichord (University of Missouri and Lincoln University),
Frank Bow (Kent State) and William Springer (University of Illinois-Urbana).
The right to vote assumes the self-protective obligation on the part of
politicians to take youth seriously. They now become a force not only on
election day but in the choice of candidates and issues. Yet the most apparent
conclusion from the data at hand is that the youth vote, rather than being a
"ballot bomb" as Kingman Brewster has predicted, will have no explosive
effect on the Capitol Hill power structure.
This is not to dismiss any 8 per cent of the electorate. Especially in
close elections. "But, of course, in a close election every vote is important,"
writes Scammon and Wattenberg in their new epilogue to The Real Majority.
"In Detroit a close election can swing on the votes of Maltese-Americans."
The
President
and
Young
America
Let us forge an alliance of the generations.
Let us work together to seek out those
ways by which the commitment and the
compassion of one generation can be
linked to the will and the experience of
nother so that together we can serve
America better and America can better
serve mankind.'
RICHARD NIXON
State of the Union Address
January 22, 1971
474
74
T
EALL
É
Bone
il
NEBRASKA
President Nixon
addresses students
at Nebraska University.
of Peace.
November, 1971
VIETNAM
He has kept his pledge to wind down the war in Viet-
nam and bring American troops home.
HUMAN RESOURCES
During the 1968 Presidential campaign, newsmen
His 1971 budget allotted more for human resources
travelling with Mr. Nixon repeatedly remarked on
than for defense-reversing a 20-year trend.
the "surprising" number of young people packing
his record-breaking audiences.
DRUG ABUSE
But it wasn't really surprising at all.
He has waged the most vigorous international war
At no time since he entered public life has Richard
against drugs-"Public Enemy Number One" and the
nation's Number One cause of youth deaths.
Nixon tried to co-opt young people or snow them
with theatrical charisma.
THE ENVIRONMENT
Instead, he has addressed them as young adults, spell-
His is the first Administration to make protection of
ing out the risks and the responsibilities as well as the
the environment a national priority.
opportunities. He refuses to undercut the nation's
EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY
honor-whether it's bowing to violence in the streets
at home, or violent aggression plotted in the war sanc-
And he has backed his conviction that "No qualified
tums of Hanoi.
student who wants to go to college should be barred
Young people who have declared themselves to be
by lack of money," with action. Among other things,
"anti-Administration" keep discovering that they're
his sweeping Higher Educational Opportunity propos-
more and more agreeing with President Nixon's pro-
al to Congress will increase student grants by 70 per-
cent.
posals and actions in areas of particular concern to
them.
THE NIXON DOCTRINE
Recent, separate polls by college specialists, Campus
An increasing concern of young people-spanning
Opinion and Columbia Features, reveal overwhelming
succeeding generations since War II-had been Ameri-
student support of the President's "Journey for Peace"
ca's accelerating role as policeman to the world. The
to the People's Republic of China as well as his design
Nixon Doctrine lowers the American profile abroad-
for economic stability and the wage-price freeze.
providing assistance to other countries in need, but
The President has repeatedly said that, in the long
playing a supportive rather than a dominant role in
run, he will be judged by the results of what he does,
their affairs.
not by the temporary voice of criticism of actions
MAN OF PEACE
that are unpopular to some. His courageous decisions
on Cambodia and Laos are cases in point-two stra-
On every side, and in every action, the underlying
theme of the Nixon Administration has been PEACE-
tegic moves that dramatically served to curtail the
Peace at home and abroad; on the campus and in the
enemy's long term offensive capacity.
city; Peace with our environment and between our
He has acted positively on every issue of importance
generations.
to young people-not because it would win favor with
The message is getting through-from the man of
youth but "because it was right for America."
peace in the White House, to the generation of peace;
THE DRAFT
to the young people who must live in the future of
One of his first Presidential actions was the reform of
the world.
the inequitable draft system-one of the key causes
That is the common bond between the President
of student unrest.
and young America.
Inaugural Peace Theme Hailed
WASHINGTON POST
Jan. 21, 1969
Columnist's Mail Shows Youth Shift
to Nixon Following Cambodia
"It is not only the silent majority that is
finding a new folk hero in R.M.N., but a
Nixon's Vietnamization,
considerable number of young people. In
the President's first 16 months in office,
A Working Reality
LOS ANGELES TIMES
letters praising him were rare in this com-
May 7, 1971
mentator's mail. He was not bitterly at-
tacked or even sharply criticized, but it
The President with G.I.'s in Vietnam.
was clear that he was not idolized either.
"This changed with his decisive action in
Cambodia, especially since it uncovered
vast stores of arms and other supplies
which otherwise would have been used to
kill American soldiers in Vietnam. Mr.
Nixon suddenly became a leader to be
worshipped.
"Inquiry at the White House disclosed the
same to be true of their mail which, of
course, is of tremendous volume as com-
pared with the trickle that reaches this ob-
server's desk. Yet over a hundred letters
provide some measure of the public pulse."
Walter Trohan
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
June 15, 1970
Cambodia,
A Vital
Victory
PHOENIX GAZETTE
May 27, 1970
President's
Peace Search
Steady, Not
Stampeded by
Demonstrations
SALT LAKE CITY TRIBUNE
May 1, 1971
NIXON: MAN OF PEACE
(LONDON TIMES)
President's
President's Vietnam Action
Tenacity Pays
Gives Nation Hope
DETROIT FREE PRESS
May 1, 1971
Off In SALT
Stalemate
Nuclear Treaty, Peace
Breakthrough
Milestone
WASHINGTON POST March 6. 1970
OMAHA WORLD HERALD
June 22, 1971
Nixon's Mideast Policy A Working Reality
DETROIT NEWS March 7, 1971
Nixon Broke Berlin Talks Deadlock
LOS ANGELES TIMES Aug. 3, 1971
Statesmanship "With a deft and daring command of the tools of statecraft, Mr.
Nixon has managed a political and diplomatic master stroke. in
the service of world peace and the finest tradition of statesmanship.
"
(PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER)
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
26000.
Any nation can be our friend duction of tensions and a bet- hope will become a journey
without being any other na-
ter relationship between the
for peace - peace not just for
tion's enemy. I have taken
United States and the Peoples
our generation but for future
this action because of my
Republic of China.
generations on this earth we
profound conviction that all
It is in this spirit that I
share together.
nations will gain from a re- will undertake what I deeply
Richard Nixon July 15, 1971
Nixon Pushes Job Help
for Viet Veterans
NEW YORK NEWS
March 13, 1971
"Give Youth a Break" President
Orders Federal Bureau Heads
"The beginning of this decade is a fitting
tribute in a real way.'
time for us to demonstrate our commit-
Young professionals are 'exposed to the
ment to the full involvement of today's
decision-making processes and to a broad
Nixon
youth in the processes of government
view of their agencies' missions.'
which will help share their tomorrow and
.'Open channels for communication are
ours,' Mr. Nixon said. 'Only with the help
Youth Job
established and freely used, and provide
of this generation can we meet the chal-
for listening, considering and responding
lenge of the 1970's.'
with fast means for ideas to reach officials
Plea Gives
"The President directed each department
who can act on them.'
and agency to assure that:
...'All supervisors understand how much
Manpower planning provides for an 'ade-
they influence young employees' job atti-
Priority to
quate and continuing intake of career
tudes and career decisions through their
trainees to meet future requirements.'
receptivity, their interest and their flexi-
Cities
'Young people are placed in jobs that
bility."
challenge their full abilities and provide
BALTIMORE NEWS AMERICAN
CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER
opportunities to grow, innovate and con-
April 2, 1970
April 10, 1971
Nixon Asks Congress To Increase
Disadvantaged Teens' Summer Aid
Seeks 576,000 Summer Jobs
"President Nixon announced yesterday he
will ask Congress for an extra $64.3 mil-
lion to put 'disadvantaged' teenagers to
work during the summer ahead.
"If approved by the lawmakers, the addi-
tional funds would create 100,000 more
jobs, providing a total of 576,000 tem-
porary jobs in the President's summer
youth program. The White House said
yesterday this would be the largest sum-
mer program ever."
WASHINGTON POST
April 10, 1971
At the Washington, D.C. meeting of
POW and MIA families in September,
President Nixon said that the U.S.
/
would eventually succeed in winning
the release of their young men in
Vietnam. (Picture left- The President
greets Doug Rice of New York City,
whose brother, Navy Lieutenant Chuck
Rice, is missing in action).
NIXON ORDERS DETAILED
PLAN TO END DRAFT
WASHINGTON STAR
January 31, 1969
Startling
NIXON SEEKS PLAN TO REPLACE
Innovation:
DRAFT WITH VOLUNTEERS
Youth Draft
Order to Pentagon Envisions
Shift When Vietnam Cost
Advisors
is Substantially Lower
President's
"President Nixon within the week will
"President Nixon has ordered the Defense
proclaim a startling innovation in the
Department to devise a 'detailed plan' to
draft to make conscription a little sweeter
replace the military draft with an all-vol-
SS Reform
for the nation's youth. He's going to let
unteer Army when expenditures in Viet-
the young people who have to serve help
nam have been "substantially reduced,'
administer the selective service system.
the White House announced today. The
Proposal
NEW YORK TIMES
order represents Mr. Nixon's first public
May 18, 1969
indication since his election that he in-
Has Merit
tends to carry out a campaign pledge to
end the draft."
No more
NEWSDAY
NEW YORK TIMES
May 15, 1969
sweating...'
January 31, 1969
Collegians
Hail Nixon's
Draft-Age Youths Applaud
Draft Plan
President's Lottery Plan
"President Nixon's proposal to change the
ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
draft laws was viewed as a far more equi-
May 14, 1969
table plan by college students contacted
by The Sun-Times Tuesday.
"Most of the students agreed that the new
We Urge Congress: Get Busy
system would cause fewer complaints a-
bout the draft system."
On President's Draft Plan
CHICAGO SUN- TIMES
COLUMBUS CITIZEN JOURNAL
May 14, 1969
May 15, 1969
Nixon's Draft
President's Draft Lottery Erases
Reform Goes
Arbitrary Call-Ups
A Long Way
"President Nixon's proposal to set up a
lottery plan would be applied locally by
in Making
random, lottery system for the military
each draft board to meet its quota, but
draft promises to be the next best thing
the lottery system should eliminate any
SS Palatable
to ending the draft altogether. Under the
arbitrary decisions by local draft boards
Nixon proposal young men would be sub-
about who gets drafted and who doesn't.
DETROIT NEWS
ject to the draft's first call for one year-
May 15, 1969
"Like President Nixon, we believe that
either their 19th year or the year after
'the disruptive impact of the military
their educational deferments end. After
draft on individual lives should be mini-
Youth
this period of maximum vulnerability,
mized as much as possible.' The lottery
they would be less and less available each
plan goes a long way in that direction."
year.
Supports
"Under the present system a youth be-
comes more and more eligible for the
ATLANTA CONSTITUTION
draft until he reaches the age of 26. The
May 14, 1969
Nixon
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
Nixon's Draft Plan Vast Improvement
July 29, 1970
CHICAGO DAILY NEWS May 14, 1969
Hails Youth Vote
President Certifies
"The 26th Amendment to the Constitu-
tion, which lowers to 18 the minimum
voting age in all elections, was officially
certified today in a ceremony conducted
by President Nixon.
"More than 500 members of a singing
group, Young Americans in Concert, wit-
nessed the event in the East Room of
the White House."
NEW YORK TIMES
July 6, 1971
26th Amendment
I support the 18-year-old vote, not
because they're old enough to fight
but because they're smart enough
to think.
Richard Nixon
March 1968
Landmark Quality
Nixon Moves to Improve
Veterans' School Benefits
ALBANY KNICKERBOCKER NEWS March 17, 1970
President Offers Massive, Bold
Look to a More Hopeful Future
PROVIDENCE JOURNAL January 24, 1971
Explorer Scouts visit the President.
President's New ACTION
Agency Fulfills Campaign
Pledge to Youth
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
January 19, 1971
TEEN-AGE MR. NIXON
POLL
SPEAKS
PICKS
TO YOUTH
February in New Hampshire.
"The eloquent appeal to the young by
Whitman team says "Nixon's the One."
NIXON
President Nixon, urging them to help
(State of Washington)
'forge an alliance of the generations' that
can surmount the challenges facing Amer-
"It probably would not have affected
ica, is persuasive.
either way the congressional decision for
"Nor should the older generations forget
18-year-old voting, but some lawmakers
Mr. Nixon's reminder that preserving the
way out in left field may note with after-
dream of America is largely up to the
the-fact chagrin that a teenage poll shows
young.
President Nixon to be their most popular
"The President's plan to combine the
American-as borne out by a survey con-
existing Peace Corps, VISTA and other
ducted by the Electronic Computer Pro-
programs into a new 'volunteer service
NIXON
gramming Institute among 4,000 high
corps' would provide one outlet for youth-
school juniors and seniors across the
ful energy and idealism. Another, equally
country.
important, is implicit in his defense of
"It was a serious poll, testing the prefer-
the political process. To those who brush
ences of serious-minded young people.
off politics or shun participation in it, he
WHITMIN
"It has been significant that throughout a
rightly emphasized that politics 'is a pro-
period of controversy, especially in such
cess, not an end' and 'the process can be
areas of policy as the Vietnam war, and
as good or as bad as the people that are
the Cambodian thrust, the Ar erican ma-
part of it.'
jority of men and women have strongly
"That invitation to the young to get ac-
supported the President. It is equally
tively involved in politics is excellent ad-
significant, surely, that the high school
vice, perhaps as wise a practical suggestion
age majority is in that corner, too."
they'll hear in the next two years."
NASHVILLE BANNER
BUFFALO EVENING NEWS
July 6, 1970
January 16, 1971
in Nixon's Education Goals
SAN DIEGO UNION March 21, 1970
President's School Plan
Nixon's
Sound
LOS ANGELES TIMES
March 26, 1970
School Stance
Brilliant
Nixon's Education Reform
ARIZONA REPUBLIC
March 27, 1970
Proposals Spur a Lively
Nixon Offers
Flow of Student Ideas
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
Revamped
March 22, 1970
Aid For
President Offers A Better
Students
LANSING STATE JOURNAL
Feb. 19, 1970
College Policy: More
Nixon's Education Goals
Loans, Grants, New Ideas
Offer Hope to Black Children
NEWARK NEWS
William Raspberry (WASHINGTON POST)
March 24, 1970
March 21, 1970
Nixon's School Leadership Welcome
DENVER POST March 25, 1970
Nixon Puts Out Welcome Sign for Young People
"President Nixon has moved dramatically
House with six young men from Kent
on what the youth movement on the na-
but quietly to achieve formal and under-
State University. He not only obtained
tions college campuses generally is all
standing relations with the youth move-
their personal point of view on the tragic
about."
ment. He talked for an hour in the White
slaying of four students, but their opinions
NEW YORK NEWS May 7, 1970
Kansas State Applause
Affirms Nixon Knows His Job
"One of the most essential jobs of the
and even airliners, Nixon said many things
qualities of the spirit the
brightest
President of the United States-any presi-
that needed to be said. And the applause
chapter ever in the unfolding of the
dent-is to keep the nation's eye on the
he drew from an audience of predomi-
American dream.'
ball. He must set forth goals worthy of
nantly university people confirms that he
"This is precisely the kind of America
the people's best efforts: he must raise a
said them well.
most of the young people we know want
standard around which good and reason-
"But perhaps the best thing Nixon did at
to build-and live in. They all too rarely
able men can rally, regardless of their
Kansas State was to point out, finally,
hear a President pointing in that direction
politics.
that 'we in America have a great deal to
with the humility and sincerity Nixon
"President Nixon did this exceptionally
be proud of-and a great deal to be hope-
displayed at Kansas State."
well the other night at Kansas State Uni-
ful about.'
versity. Taking as his topic the inhuman
"We do have, as he said, the material
THE DENVER POST
violence plaguing college campuses, cities
foundation on which to develop 'great
September 18, 1970
President Urges Expanded Youth Role
in Government
PHILADELPHIA BULLETIN
September 13, 1970
President Says Youth
Nixon Innovates,
Invites Young to
Not Turned Off'
Take Charge of
White House
"President Richard Nixon, says the
against violence' because they recognize
younger generation 'is being given a bad
that as long as there is a 'means for peace-
name by a few violent demonstrators.'
ful change, there is no cause that justifies
Youth Parley
"They do not speak for youth and they
resort to violence and lawlessness.'
"President Nixon has decided to do what
do not speak for Americans,' Nixon told
"In Ohio State today, 1 ran into students,
other Presidents haven't- let the young, in-
a gathering of more than 10,000 people.
scores of them, and that was the same
cluding some militants, take charge of the
last night at Kansas City auditorium.
message that came through loud and
White House Conference on Youth.
"The President said his appearance at
clear,' Nixon told his Kansas City audi-
"The conference, held every 10 years
Kansas State University last month dem-
ence."
since President Theodore Roosevelt started
onstrated that most students 'stood up
WASHINGTON STAR October 20, 1970
it, in the past has consisted mainly of
adults talking about the problems of youth.
With Governor Lin Holton and Young Virginians.
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER August 10. 1970
Nixon's Environment
Plan Historic
CHARLESTON GAZETTE
July 20, 1970
Nixon's Environmental Agency: Big Gain
in Pollution Attack
CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER
July 10, 1970
President Announces
Nixon Vows
Student Ecology Awards
to Clean
President Nixon announced a new award
Awards would be made for educational
program yesterday to stimulate high
programs, community service projects and
Great Lakes
school students to undertake programs
public affairs programs.
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
designed to protect the environment.
Theme of the program,"Life-Pass it On."
Feb. 20, 1970
"I have been impressed by the thousands
WASHINGTON POST November 1, 1971
of letters I have received from young
President Hits
people who want to join our national ef-
fort to reclaim, protect and preserve our
Nixon's Environment
Federal
national inheritance," Mr. Nixon said.
Program Holds Promise
"Environmental programs sponsored by
Pollution
high school students can play an import-
of Success
ant part in this vital effort."
ATLANTA CONSTITUTION Nov. 18, 1970
NEWARK NEWS March 23, 1970
Nixon Puts
Nixon Gives Leadership
Teeth in
For Improved Environment
Refuse Act
AKRON BEACON JOURNAL Feb. 11, 1970
MINNEAPOLIS JOURNAL
Dec. 27, 1970
Nixon Proposes Sweeping
A Presidential Push On
Pollution-Pronto
Pollution Fight Program
MIAMI HERALD Dec. 27, 1970
CHICAGO TRIBUNE Feb. 11, 1970
President Firm in Fight To
Nixon's
Save The Environment
Top-Notch
CHICAGO SUN TIMES Feb. 9, 1970
Environment
Plan
LOS ANGELES TIMES
We Applaud President's
March 6. 1970
Crackdown on Polluters
Nixon Moves in Right
Direction
CHICAGO DAILY NEWS
Feb. 10, 1970
IDAHO STATESMAN March 12, 1970
Nixon's Alliance of Generations'
A Fresh Approach to Young People
"President Nixon will win widespread pub-
lic support for his new 'alliance of the
President's Message- - A Restatement
generations.'
Of Faith in America's Young People
"In both his University of Nebraska
speech and his State of the Union address
"An understanding President-guest, and
regard for honest convictions, even if they
Mr. Nixon called upon the idealism of
briefly a speaker in U.T.'s Neyland Stad-
do not coincide at every point.
youth to help fight poverty at home and
ium last night-was a President under-
"That was the spirit of President Nixon's
abroad.
stood. A Chief Executive with respect
message last night.
"It is good leadership to appeal to young
for both the occasion, and his audience,
"It was Mr. Nixon's faith in America's
people."
had and has the respect of these. Where
young people reiterated; in the objectives
there is mutual interest in and concern
and dedication of that vast majority,
HARTFORD TIMES
for the present and future of the greatest
striving with heart and hand and mind to
January 25, 1971
nation on earth, there is reciprocity of
build a better nation and better world."
NASHVILLE BANNER May 21, 1970
Newspaper Boy Week Proclamation.
Girls Nation Leaders.
And at every stop-young people! (Walla Walia, Washington)
President Shows Admirable Willingness
to Adapt to Needs
NEW YORK TIMES
April 6, 1971
140
Nixon Releases Funds for War
on Drug Use Among Pupils
WASHINGTON POST March 12, 1970
We Welcome Nixon's Attack
on Drugs In Schools
WICHITA EAGLE March 16, 1970
Nixon Blocks Narcotics Traffic
WASHINGTON STAR June 6, 1971
Nixon Taps Nixon's Attack on
Youth's
Quieter
Drugs Deserves
Idealism
Active Support
DENVER POST
March 25, 1970
OMAHA WORLD-HERALD
January 16, 1971
100,000 Youth Jam UT Stadium,
Give Nixon Tumultuous Welcome
KNOXVILLE JOURNAL
May 29, 1970
Nixon Gives Priority to Youth
BOSTON GLOBE
June 8, 1970
The President Toward Youth:
Dignity and Understanding
WASHINGTON STAR
Editor: Frank Leonard. Design: Frank Foster. Photography: Ollie Atkins,
Jan 21, 1971
Jack Kightlinger, Byron Shumacker, Bob Knudsen, Karl Schumacher.
Statement of Faith in Young America.
File
EVALUATION OF NOVEMBER 2, 1971, ELECTIONS
I. Victories
1. Indianapolis, Indiana: Incumbent Republican Mayor Richard Lugar,
running a campaign closely identified with the President, won
re-election 153,407 votes to the Democrat candidate's 100,552.
This was the biggest percentage for any Republican candidate since
President Eisenhower. State Chairman John Snyder says this should
be seen as a real victory for the President as well as Lugar.
2. Evansville, Indiana: Evansville has elected a Republican mayor
for the first time in 20 years, Russell G. Lloyd.
3. San Diego, California: Republican Assemblyman Pete Wilson won
the mayoral race with 115,417 votes to his opponent's 71,321. Both
men were of conservative stripe, and voting was on party lines.
4. Birmingham, Alabama: Republican Mayor George Seibels who is
closely tied to the President in Birmingham won re-election by
12,000 votes on October 12. Seibels, regarded as one of the South's
most progressive mayors, won despite heavy opposition because of an
occupational tax he supported.
5. Cleveland, Ohio: Republican Ralph Perke was elected mayor,
beating out a Stokes-backed black independent and a moderate
Democrat. Perke had been auditor of Cuyahoga County. Party people
see strengthening of President's position in Ohio reflected in the
vote. Perke has ties to the President from 1968, when he worked
with ethnics.
6. Columbus, Ohio: Republican Tom Moody was elected mayor of
Columbus. Republicans now hold all but three or four city halls in
Ohio.
7. Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District: Republican Heinz over
his Democrat opponent by 103,000 to 49,000 at latest count. Seen as
victory for President since the Democrat, Connelly, tried to exploit
the economic issue.
II. Toss-ups
1. New Jersey: GOP retained Senate, but lost control of Assembly,
though not by overwhelming majority. Republican State Senator
Hap Farley lost big in Atlantic County, taking everyone with him.
GOP held in counties where President was strong in 1968. Party
people feel they made fairly good showing.
2. San Francisco: Republicans here not surprised at Alioto win,
but feel some significance in that Republican Dobbs was second in
the three-way race, with 69,786 votes. A Republican, John Molinari,
was elected a San Francisco supervisor.
III. Major Setbacks
1. Kentucky: Democrat Wendell Ford beat Republican Tom Emberton.
Ford had styled his campaign as running against the President as
well as Emberton and Nunn. Emberton turned off attack too early,
wound up on defensive. Democrats turned out consistent numbers of
voters statewide. Democrats hold 2 - 1 edge in registration.
2. Virginia: George P. Shafran, the Republican candidate for
lieutenant governor ran third statewide despite heavy campaigning
by Governor Linwood Holton: Democrats captured all of Northern
Virginia State Senate delegation.
Overall Evaluation: Ohio showed greatest Republican vigor. While
Indiana was strong, several college towns were lost, indicating need
to beef up youth vote efforts. Attempts will be made by Democrats
to use Kentucky as a barometer (Scoop Jackson said it this morning
in a press conference), but the Pennsylvania 18th should refute this
to a degree since the Democrat who ran much in the style of Ford, was
defeated.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: 11-3-71
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Harry Dent prepared the attached
summary of the final election
returns.
The President has called Lugar,
Perke, Rizzo, and Pete Wilson
but not Heinz as of 12 noon.
November 2, 1971
ELECTION RETURNS
CONGRESSIONAL RACE:
Pennsylvania 18th
Heinz (R)
103,000
Connelly (D)
49,000
GUBERNATORIAL RACE:
Kentucky
Emberton (R)
388,594
Ford (D)
448,418
Chandler (I)
37,739
Smith
7,231
Mississippi
Waller (D)
427,544
Evers (I)
117,652
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:
Virginia
Shafran (R)
183,926
Kostel (D)
269,841
Howell (I)
317,008
MAYORAL RACES:
Indianapolis
Lugar (R)
153,407
Neff (D)
100,552
page 2 - Election Returns
for November 2, 1971
Philadelphia
Longstreth (R)
343,169
Rizzo (D)
391,692
Cleveland
Perke (R)
87,374
Pinckney (D)
72,386
Carney (I)
64,923
San Francisco
Dobbs (R)
69,786
Alioto (D)
97,251
Feinstein
55,175
Boston
Hicks (D)
70,326
White (D)
113,119
San Diego
Wilson (R)
115,417
Butler (D)
71,321
Baltimore
Pierpont (R)
17,740
Schaefer (D)
128,807
ASD
Harry S. Dent
11:00 a.m., November 3, 1971
Republican
National
Committee.
November 3, 1971
MEMORANDUM TO: GA ORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
ED/DeBOLT
RE:
PRELIMINARY ELECTION REPORT
I have attached the results that our political field
staff and research staff have gathered from the various major races
across the country yesterday. We have contacted various independent
sources to compile this information. I hope that you will find it
useful.
Early next week we plan to have completed an in-depth
analysis of these races with emphasis on the political impact within
the states and particular areas of these races. You will receive a
copy.
/jrg
attachment
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
INDIANA
INDIANAPOLIS
Incumbent Mayor Richard Lugar won election easily over his Democrat rival,
attorney John Neff. Lugar ran extremely well for a Republican in the inner-
city, normally a Democrat stronghold. The final vote was 153,407 for Lugar
and 100, 552 for Neff. Lugar also brought in a Republican State Senator
and 2 state representatives who were running in special elections. Repub-
licans think they have won 20 of the 29 city council seats, giving Lugar
the support he will need on the council. The two city judges running for
the first time on the city ticket, also went : to the Republicans.
SOUTH BEND
Incumbent Mayor, Lloyd Allen, a Republican who has held the office for
eight years, did not seek re-election this year. Instead, the election
was between Jerry Miller, a Democrat and President of the County Commisioners,
and Janet Allen, a city councilwoman. Mrs. Allen, age seventy-some, lost
to Miller, who is in his early thirties. South Bend is considered a
Democrat stronghold, having never gone Republican in recent elections, save
the mayors race in 1963 and 1967.
BLOOMINGTON.
Normally a Republican city, Bloomington went Democratic in Tuesday's election.
This is largely attributed to the large turnout of students from Indiana
University who were expected to vote Democratic.
FORT WAYNE
Until last year when incumbent Congressman E. Ross Adair lost his bid for
re-relection, Fort Wayne was traditionally a Republican city. This year
the Republican Mayor lost in his bid for re-election to the Democrat
opponent.
EVANSVILLE
Normally a Democrat city and county, Evansville went Republican this year
for the ffrst time in recent history. Mayor McDonald, a democrat, was
not seeking re-election and the two candidates were both new and trying
for the first time.
GARY
Unlike four years ago, the Democratic party was united behind Mayor Richard
Hatcher, and he easily won re-election
INDIANAPOLIS
Lugar
153,407
Neff
100,552
(Exceeds Nixon and Eisenhower margin in past years.)
Republicans won:
20 of 29 Council seats
both criminal court judges
2 special elections
1 legislature
(Both former Republican seats, but won
1 State Senate
by a large margin.)
All the margins here are well in excess of normal GOP margins (12,000-20,000)
Victories due to:
1) Met and won the busing issue and the Democrats were
discredited.
2) The attack of Matt Reese's involvement in race.
3) Positive pitch of Lugar record - pollution control,
safest city, lower taxes.
CLEVELAND MAYOR'S RACE
UNOFFICIAL RETURNS
REPUBLICAN
Black-INDEPENDENT
DEMOCRAT
Ralph J. Perk
Arnold R. Pinkney
James M. Carney
88,774
72,785
65,887
Republican Ralph J. Perk, Cuyahoga County Auditor
since 1962 won on his third attempt at becoming Mayor of the
City of Cleveland, Ohio. Perk won with a plurality vote
defeating Democrat James Carney and Black-Independent
Arnold Pinkney. Carney, a wealthy businessman was estimated
to have spent over $400,000 in his third place finish,
Arnold Pinkney, the favorite candidate of incumbent Mayor
Carl Stokes finished second spending some $250,000. Ralph
Perk ran a tightly financed campaign ($40,000) bringing to-
gether a coalition of Republicans, Democrats and Blacks. He
collected some 40% of the three-way split despite the fact
that Democrats out-register Republicans in the City of Cleve-
land by a 10 to 1 margin.
The vote was an apparent backlash at the two-term
Democratic Mayor Stokes who steps down this next Monday morning.
The City faces bankruptcy, and may be unable to meet its December
payro11. Despite some cries that Perk ran a "racist" campaign,
the Mayor-Elect plans to bring together these same three factions
in his new administration.
Note: This is the last partisan campaign that will be conducted
in the City of Cleveland, because during the September Primary
the electorate vote to make all future campaigns for Mayor of
the City of Cleveland Non-Partisan.
Ohio - State-wide
The Republicans swept the Northeast Section of Ohio.
1) Long-term incumbents were unseated.
2) The unpopularity of Democrat Governor Gilligan, who
actively campaigned, also affected the outcome.
3) Columbus - large youth vote plus black vote, helped
upset long-time incumbent Sensenbrenner.
Columbus
Moody (R)
77,853
Sensenbrenner (D) 76,840
Warren
Richard (R)
10,307
Bennett (D)
9,032
Niles
Thorp (R)
4,107
Marino (D)
4,002
San Francisco - Mayor
Joseph Alioto (D)
95,744
Harold Dobbs (R)
68,637
Diane Fienstein (D)
53,911
Joseph Alioto's pending federal indictment had no effect
on the lower socio-economic voters who gave him most of his support.
Harold Dobbs suffered his third loss in election for mayor.
He lost by a greater margin in this race than he lost by in 1967 (margin in
1967 was only 16,000 votes). Approximate totals for the 1967 race are:
Alioto, 112,000; Dobbs, 96,000; Morrison, 50,000.
Diane Fienstein (D) ran on a liberal platform.
The total vote for San Francisco mayor dropped off
significantly since the last election.
San Francisco - Other
1) Proposition S - Voters said yes to electing school
board at large. This is a direct ramification of the city busing plan
instituted in September.
2) Proposition I - took away life-time tenure for teachers
and reduced it to 4-year tenure.
3) Proposition T - voters defeated this measure to limit all
building in the San Francisco area to 6 stories (139,000-85,000).
San Diego - Mayor
Assemblyman Pete Wilson (R)
109,000 (63%)
Ed Butler (D)
70,000
This victory will provide good assistance for Convention.
Sacramento - Mayor
Richard Marriott (D)
Milton McGhee (D)
This campaign was an establishment - anti-establishment
oriented campaign. Richard Marriott, although a Democrat, was supported
by the local GOP organization, and represented the establishment to voters.
Milton McGhee was a black, anti-establishment candidate.
VIRGINIA ELECTION RESULTS
LT. GOVERNOR
HENRY HOWELL (I)
332,987
(40.4%)
GEORGE KOSTEL (D)
301,974
(36.6%)
GEORGE SHAFRAN (R)
189,149
(23%)
COMMENT: This is the second significant defeat for Governor
Linwood Holton in as many times. The Governor lent the full
weight of his prestige to Shafran, but this was not enough to
to offset a late-starting, poorly-financed campaign run by
largely inexperienced personnel. Governor Holton's popularity
will be at a new low among conservative Republicans, who opposed
his efforts to nominate Shafran this year and moderate Ray Garland
for the Senate last year. A conservative revolt could be brewing.
Shafran did well only in Northern Virginia, his home ground. He
finished third in the traditional GOP stronghold, the Shenandoah
Valley. Howell had broad support all across the state, running
third only in Southwest Virginia's Ninth Congressional District.
His campaign was built around his own brand of "consumer populism"
coupled with racial moderation which drew heavy support from the
state's Blacks and blue-collar whites. The busing issue may not
have had the impact originally anticipated, although this may be
due to a lack of any clear-cut difference between any of the
candidates.
Shafran's overwhelming loss indicates the GOP has a long way
to go if it is to retain the Governorship in 1973. It looks
increasingly like Holton's 1969 victory was more of a personal
victory than a Republican victory, and that without another
candidate with his personal magnetism, the Statehouse will go
to Henry Howell in 1973.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY:
STATE SENATE: No net change
33D
7R
HOUSE OF DELEGATES: Net loss of two seats
77D
22R 1I
COMMENT: Despite Shafran's overwhelming loss, Republican members
of the State Legislature held their own by and large. Many local
candidates avoided close association with Shafran when it became
apparent that the campaign was floundering badly. The failure to
make any significant inroads into the Democrat-dominated General
Assembly is discouraging, however, in view of the tremendous effort
put into candidate recruitment this year. 99 out of 140 General
Assembly seats were contested this year, far more than ever before.
Page Two
OUTLOOK FOR NIXON IN 1972
These races cannot really be viewed in terms of the Presidential
contest. The issues were almost exclusively local issues. Nixon
should still do well here, and State Chairman Warren French believes
there will be little trouble in carrying the state.
BOND ISSUES AND PROPOSALS
CALIFORNIA
San Diego. On the ballot in San Diego was a proposal which would have allowed
the city to go in debt $2,850,000 to acquire land to develop in Balboa
Park to be used for educational, recreational and curtural activities.
The proposal received 106,260 votes "yes" against 70,799 votes "no". This
was a 60%-40% breakdown, but the proposal failed to get the 2/3 majority
needed for passage.
San Francisco
On the ballot were the following:
yes
no
Proposition A.
Public School bond
107,910
121,913
Proposition B.
Harbor Improvement Bond
160,499
67,266
Proposition C.
Improve Hall of Justice
113,660
110,892
Proposition D.
Fire Improvement Bond
153,664
71,004
Proposition E.
Police Dept. Reorganization
108,269
105,917
Proposition F.
Budget Analysis
91,510
120,345
Proposition G.
Examination by those on
152,159
60,208
disability
Proposition H.
Mayors to submit to voters
112,423
96,194
opposing arguements
Proposition I.
School dept. contracts
115,767
94,363
Proposition J.
Work week incentive
program for Police,fire
87,984
130,959
Proposition K.
Election law
59,547
147,529
Proposition L.
Separate boards for community 119,698
86,692
colleges
Proposition M.
Amend zoning ordinances
111,877
84,183
Proposition N.
Retirement benefits
88,762
120,234
Proposition O.
Printing of Legislative
100,049
100,098
Journal
Proposition P.
Retirement of widows of
134,013
81,081
police and firement
Proposition Q.
Save the cable cars
120,989
81,730
Proposition R.
Recodification of city
128,794
67,493
charters
Proposition S.
Elective school boards
128,745
91,726
Proposition T.
Height limits on high-rises
86,792
142,399
BOND ISSUES AND PROPOSALS
OHIO
Dick Baker os the Ohio Education Association reported today that with 80%
of the vote totals in, the results of the school bonding issues weredismall.
67% of the new money requests were defeated in the state and 6 of the
renewal issues were also defeated. According to Mr. Baker, defeats of
renewals is usually unheard of in Ohio. On a statewide average, only 29% of the
bondings for new buildings passed.
In the Dayton school system, the bonding issue was defeated. Starting this
Friday, the schools will be closed for at least 10 days. On November
12th an emergency measure will again be on the ballot and if it passes
schools will again be open. Without passage, schools will be forced to
stay closed until January, when they can borrow from next year's budget.
NEW YORK
Proposition 1. Proposition 1 failed to pass in yesterday's election. This
proposal would have allowed the state to increase the fares for the Mass
Transit Authority. Gov. Rockefeller and the Republican Party of New
York campaigned for the proposal, feeling the proposal was needed to balance the
budget The Republican Party of New York says the defeat of this measure
will leave the state in financial crisis.
Amendment 1. Amendment 1 was a proposal which would have allowed the state
to give or lend money for the developement of community projects such as
housing projects. This proposal also failed to pass.
Amendment 2. This amendment would have allowed the cities to extend for 10
years the authority to excede their debt limit for the construction of sewage
facilities. This amendment also failed to pass.
The defeat of the proposals from New York were given to me by the New York
Republican Party, although there are no figures available until late today or
tommorrow.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
All municipal races
In the three partisan municipal races, GOP lost all by narrow
margins. Due to lack of organization.
MAINE
Income tax referendum: the proposal to repeal an already-existing
income tax was defeated by a large margin.
MASSACHUSETTS
Democrat Kevin White won by large margin (over 60 per cent).
Louise Hicks will run for re-election to Congress.
A Republican won in Quincy, which has been Democrat for many years.
NEW YORK
Bond issue was defeated badly. This presents serious problem since
the $300 million which the bond issue was to raise has already been
incorporated into this year's budget.
PENNSYLVANIA
PHILADELPHIA MAYORAL RACE:
Rizzo
391,692* (D)
Longstreth
343,169 (R)
Rizzo, former Police Commissioner, ran on law and order theme.
Republicans were counting on large black vote - they stayed home.
*with 1,752 out of 1,756 precincts reporting.
18th DISTRICT CONGRESSIONAL RACE
Heinz
103,000
(R)
Connelly
49,000
(D)
(This only Congressional race in the country).
PRELIMINARY KENTUCKY RESULTS
Governor - State Wide
-
2,873/3,079
Ford
-
442,763.
Emberton
-
381,497
Chandler
-
36,553
Smith
-
7,133
GOVERNOR AND LT. GOVERNOR BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
I
2
3
4
5
6
7
425/425
328/392
360/360
464/476
441/505
428/441
478/480
GOVERNOR
Ford
80,615
60,676
49,101
66,370
48,768
65,565
76,995
Emberton
46,124
46,354
44,305
67,115
70,964
54,799
58,682
Chandler
2,263
2,611
7,005
7,539
2,189
14,185
1,954
Smith
1,308
743
1,499
1,485
467
1,310
428
LT. GOVERNOR
Carroll
80,805
59,724
53,185
69,624
47,737
67,168
72,389
Host
39,287
40,674
40,722
61,127
62,278
51,301
52,913
a)
Jefferson County
b) 201/476 precincts in Jefferson County, For those 201 precincts this
is the breakdown:
Ford
25,529
Emberton
34,974
Chandler
4,929
Smith
1,097
Adding the results of the third district with this portion of the
third Emberton scored the following:
Ford
74,630
Emberton
79,279
Emberton carried Jefferson County by 4-5 thousand votes.
c) This district was considered to be Emberton stronghold. He
did not do as well as expected.
d) This district is Chandlers home and he did better here than in
other areas.
ANALYSIS
1. Ford did surpirsingly well in eastern and southeastern parts of
the state -- areas very crucial to future GOP hopes. Consider the
following statistics:
1967 - Nunn carried region by 40,000 votes
1971 - Emberton carried region by 16,000 votes
2. Emberton carried Jefferson County but not by large enough margin
to offset low margins in other sagging areas of the state.
3. The 7th District was considered to be a Bert Combs power base and
Republicans expected to do well there because of the bitter Ford/Combs
primary battle last spring. However, Emberton ran 15% behind Nunn
totals in 1967.
4. General Assembly likely to remain Democrat by a 78-22 margin is the
House. In the Senate the Democrats should increase their pre-election
23-15 margin.
5. All Democratic state candidates were swept into office -- generally
by much larger margins than that of Ford.
6. Jefferson County elected 12 Democrats in the Aldermanic race and both
City Commissioner elected were Democrats.
7. Wendell Ford proclaimed last night and today that the "Dump Nixon
Campaign has begun."
CONNECTICUTT
In Bridgeport, the state's second largest city, the Republican nominee for
mayor, Nick Panuzio won by three votes. Panuzio was backed by a young group
of Republican who took control of the party two years ago, according to
Chip Andrews, the State Executive Director. Panuzio was running against
the incumbent mayor, Hugh Currin.
This is the first election in 50 years in which the Republican have won
in Bridgeport. The 3 vote margin was out of a total vote of approximately
152,000 citizens in Bridgeport.
NEW JERSEY
State Senate: previously GOP 31-9 stands now GOP 24-16, but possibly
25-15. Ten GOP incumbents did not run.
State Assembly: previously GOP 59-21; now Democrats 40-39 with one
Independent. One race undecided but presently counted in Democrat
figures as it is likely to go that way. 20 GOP incumbents did not
run who did not run for the Senate.
NOTE: A recount in Assembly District 11D (Essex County) - GOP member
running: John F. Trezza