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This file contains:
From: Harry Dent To: Gordon Strachan RE: Evaluations of November 2, 1971, Elections. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
Election Results from the different participating states. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1971
To: Harry Dent RE: Handwritten note with two names of Senate candidates and statistics. Election returns and recommended telephone calls attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The Committee for the Re-Election of the President Staff RE: Monitoring the various races for the Attorney General and Mr. Haldeman. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The Attorney General RE: What race the Committee for the re-election of the President will be monitoring, including a summary of the races, and telephone calls. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/29/1971
Write-up of candidates for the Gubernatorial and Mayoralty races. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1971
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Election Watch. A copy is attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Politics File. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1971
From: Peter Millspaugh To: Harry Dent RE: Newspaper coverage of the Wallace fundraiser. New York Times article attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1971
From: Bob Finch To: H.R. Haldeman RE: The Electoral College and the Mexican- American: An Analysis of the Mexican- American Impact on the 1972 Presidential Election. 17 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971
From: Larry Higby To: Gordon Strachan RE: Odds and Ends of the Election. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/11/1971
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26145796
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WHSF: Contested, 19-12
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26145796
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WHSF: Contested, 19-12
description
This file contains:
From: Harry Dent To: Gordon Strachan RE: Evaluations of November 2, 1971, Elections. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1971
Election Results from the different participating states. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1971
To: Harry Dent RE: Handwritten note with two names of Senate candidates and statistics. Election returns and recommended telephone calls attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The Committee for the Re-Election of the President Staff RE: Monitoring the various races for the Attorney General and Mr. Haldeman. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The Attorney General RE: What race the Committee for the re-election of the President will be monitoring, including a summary of the races, and telephone calls. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/29/1971
Write-up of candidates for the Gubernatorial and Mayoralty races. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1971
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Election Watch. A copy is attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1971
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Politics File. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1971
From: Peter Millspaugh To: Harry Dent RE: Newspaper coverage of the Wallace fundraiser. New York Times article attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1971
From: Bob Finch To: H.R. Haldeman RE: The Electoral College and the Mexican- American: An Analysis of the Mexican- American Impact on the 1972 Presidential Election. 17 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971
From: Larry Higby To: Gordon Strachan RE: Odds and Ends of the Election. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/11/1971
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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26145796
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
12
11/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Harry Dent To: Gordon Strachan RE:
Evaluations of November 2, 1971, Elections.
3 pgs.
19
12
11/2/1971
Campaign
Report
Election Results from the different
participating states. 5 pgs.
19
12
11/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: Harry Dent RE: Handwritten note with
two names of Senate candidates and
statistics. Election returns and recommended
telephone calls attached. 6 pgs.
19
12
11/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The
Committee for the Re-Election of the
President Staff RE: Monitoring the various
races for the Attorney General and Mr.
Haldeman. 2 pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
12
10/29/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Robert C. Odle, Jr. To: The Attorney
General RE: What race the Committee for
the re-election of the President will be
monitoring, including a summary of the
races, and telephone calls. 3 pgs.
19
12
11/2/1971
Campaign
Report
Write-up of candidates for the Gubernatorial
and Mayoralty races. 2 pgs.
19
12
11/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Election Watch. A copy is attached. 4
pgs.
19
12
10/6/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Harry Dent To: H.R. Haldeman RE:
Politics File. 1 pg.
19
12
10/5/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Peter Millspaugh To: Harry Dent RE:
Newspaper coverage of the Wallace fund-
raiser. New York Times article attached. 3
pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
19
12
9/20/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Bob Finch To: H.R. Haldeman RE:
The Electoral College and the Mexican-
American: An Analysis of the Mexican-
American Impact on the 1972 Presidential
Election. 17 pgs.
19
12
8/11/1971
Campaign
Memo
From: Larry Higby To: Gordon Strachan RE:
Odds and Ends of the Election. 2 pgs.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Page 3 of 3
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: November 3, 1971
TO:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
Please handle
For your information
EVALUATION OF NOVEMBER 2, 1971, ELECTIONS
I. Victories
1. Indianapolis, Indiana: Incumbent Republican Mayor Richard Lugar,
running a campaign closely identified with the President, won
re-election 153,407 votes to the Democrat candidate's 100,552.
This was the biggest percentage for any Republican candidate since
President Eisenhower. State Chairman John Snyder says this should
be seen as a real victory for the President as well as Lugar.
2. Evansville, Indiana: Evansville has elected a Republican mayor
for the first time in 20 years, Russell G. Lloyd.
3. San Diego, California: Republican Assemblyman Pete Wilson won
the mayoral race with 115,417 votes to his opponent's 71,321. Both
men were of conservative stripe, and voting was on party lines.
4. Birmingham, Alabama: Republican Mayor George Seibels who is
closely tied to the President in Birmingham won re-election by
12,000 votes on October 12. Seibels, regarded as one of the South's
most progressive mayors, won despite heavy opposition because of an
occupational tax he supported.
5. Cleveland, Ohio: Republican Ralph Perke was elected mayor,
beating out a Stokes-backed black independent and a moderate
Democrat. Perke had been auditor of Cuyahoga County. Party people
see strengthening of President's position in Ohio reflected in the
vote. Perke has ties to the President from 1968, when he worked
with ethnics.
6. Columbus, Ohio: Republican Tom Moody was elected mayor of
Columbus. Republicans now hold all but three or four city halls in
Ohio.
7. Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District: Republican Heinz over
his Democrat opponent by 103,000 to 49,000 at latest count. Seen as
victory for President since the Democrat, Connelly, tried to exploit
the economic issue.
II. Toss-ups
1. New Jersey: GOP retained Senate, but lost control of Assembly,
though not by overwhelming majority. Republican State Senator
Hap Farley lost big in Atlantic County, taking everyone with him.
GOP held in counties where President was strong in 1968. Party
people feel they made fairly good showing.
2. San Francisco: Republicans here not surprised at Alioto win,
but feel some significance in that Republican Dobbs was second in
the three-way race, with 69,786 votes. A Republican, John Molinari,
was elected a San Francisco supervisor.
III. Major Setbacks
1. Kentucky: Democrat Wendell Ford beat Republican Tom Emberton.
Ford had styled his campaign as running against the President as
well as Emberton and Nunn. Emberton turned off attack too early,
wound up on defensive. Democrats turned out consistent numbers of
voters statewide. Democrats hold 2 - 1 edge in registration.
2. Virginia: George P. Shafran, the Republican candidate for
lieutenant governor ran third statewide despite heavy campaigning
by Governor Linwood Holton. Democrats captured all of Northern
Virginia State Senate delegation.
Overall Evaluation: Ohio showed greatest Republican vigor. While
Indiana was strong, several college towns were lost, indicating need
to beef up youth vote efforts. Attempts will be made by Democrats
to use Kentucky as a barometer (Scoop Jackson said it this morning
in a press conference), but the Pennsylvania 18th should refute this
to a degree since the Democrat who ran much in the style of Ford, was
defeated.
November 2, 1971
ELECTION RETURNS
CONGRESSIONAL RACE:
Pennsylvania 18th
Heinz (R)
103,000
Connelly (D)
49,000
GUBERNATORIAL RACE:
Kentucky
Emberton (R)
388,594
Ford (D)
448,418
Chandler (I)
37,739
Smith
7,231
Mississippi
Waller (D)
427,544
Evers (I)
117,652
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:
Virginia
Shafran (R)
183,926
Kostel (D)
269,841
Howell (I)
317,008
MAYORAL RACES:
Indianapolis
Lugar (R)
153,407
Neff (D)
100,552
page 2 - Election Returns
for November 2, 1971
Philadelphia
Longstreth (R)
343,169
Rizzo (D)
391,692
Cleveland
Perke (R)
87,374
Pinckney (D)
72,386
Carney (I)
64,923
San Francisco
Dobbs (R)
69,786
Alioto (D)
97,251
Feinstein
55,175
Boston
Hicks (D)
70,326
White (D)
113,119
San Diego
Wilson (R)
115,417
Butler (D)
71,321
Baltimore
Pierpont (R)
17,740
Schaefer (D)
128,807
ASD
Harry S. Dent
11:00 a.m., November 3, 1971
November 2, 1971
ELECTION RETURNS
CONGRESSIONAL RACE:
Pennsylvania 18th
Heinz (R)
103,000
Connelly (D)
49,000
GUBERNATORIAL RACE:
Kentucky
Emberton (R)
388,594
Ford (D)
448,418
Chandler (I)
37,739
Smith
7,231
Mississippi
Waller (D)
427,544
Evers (I)
117,652
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:
Virginia
Shafran (R)
183,926
Kostel (D)
269,841
Howell (I)
317,008
MAYORAL RACES:
Indianapolis
Lugar (R)
153,407
Neff (D)
100,552
page 2 - Election Returns
for November 2, 1971
Philadelphia
Longstreth (R)
343,169
Rizzo (D)
391,692
Cleveland
Perke (R)
87,374
Pinckney (D)
72,386
Carney (I)
64,923
San Francisco
Dobbs (R)
69,786
Alioto (D)
97,251
Feinstein
55,175
Boston
Hicks (D)
70,326
White (D)
113,119
San Diego
Wilson (R)
115,417
Butler (D)
71,321
Baltimore
Pierpont (R)
17,740
Schaefer (D)
128,807
ASD
Harry S. Dent
11:00 a.m., November 3, 1971
UPI-14
(OTHER ELECTIONS)
PITTSBURGH--REPUBLICAN H. JOHN HEINZ III, HEIR TO A FOOD PROCESSING
FORTUNE, USED A YOUTHFUL IMAGE AND A WELL ORGANIZED CAMPAIGN TO
OVERWHELM DEMOCRAT JOHN CONNELLY BY A 2-1 MARGI TUESDAY IN THE
NATION'S ONLY CONGRESSIONAL RACE.
HEINZ RECEIVED 103,000 VOTES TO 49,000 FOR CONNELLY IN COMPLETE
UNOFFICIAL RETURNS IN PENNSYLVANIA'S 18TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT I
SUBURBAN PITTSBURGH.
SOME REPUBLICANS AT THE HEINZ VICTORY CELEBRATION CALLED THE
ELECTION A VINDICATION OF NIXON'S POLICIES. MOST DEMOCRATS AT
CONNELLY'S HEADQUARTERS BLAMED HIS DEFEAT ON HEAVY SPENDING BY HEINZ.
-0-
INDIANAPOLIS--VOTERS IN AMERICA'S 11TH LARGEST CITY TUESDAY
RE-ELECTED REPUBLICAN MAYOR RICHRD LUGAR, ONE OF PRESIDENT NIXON'S
MOST FREQUENT ADVISERS ON URBAN AFFAIRS.
LUGAR, 39, PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES AND VICE
PRESIDENT OF THE PRESIDENT'S ADVISORY COUNCIL ON INTERGOVERNMENTAL
RELATIONS, DEFEATED HIS DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER, JOHN NEFF, 34, BY A
BETTER THAN 3-T0-2 RATIO.
-0-
ALBANY-- DWMT BILLION BOND ISSUE TO IMPROVE HIGHWAYS AND PUBLIC
TRANSPORTATION WAS DEFEATED TUESDAY DESPITE THE BACKING OF GOV. NELSON
ROCKEFELLER AND MAYOR JOHN LINDSAY.
THE BOND LOST BY 150,000 VOTES IN NEW YORK CITY WITH THE UNOFFICIAL
STATEWIDE TOTAL RUNNING 1,885,049 AGAINST THE MEASURE AND 1,302,294
FOR IT.
-0-
JERSEY CITY--DR. PAUL JORDAN, A PUBLIC HEALTH PHYSICIAN, BEAT 17
OTHER CANDIDATES TO FILL THE UNEXPIRED TERM OF FORMER MAYOR THOMAS
WHELAN. WHELAN IS SERVING A 15-YEAR PRISON SENTENCE FOR EXTORTION
CONSPIRACY.
ELSEWHERE IN NEW JERSEY, DEMOCRATS MADE DEEP INROADS INTO THE
REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE.
-0-
MACON, GA.--GOP MAYOR RONNIE THOMPSON, CLAIMING THE SUPPORT OF VICE
PRESIDENT AGNEW, EASILY WON ELECTION TO HIS SECOND FOUR-YEAR TERM
TUESDAY.
THOMPSON PILED UP 18,989 VOTES TO 13,721 FOR EMORYGREENE, A
DEMOCRAT AND BIBB COUNTY COMMISSIONER.
-0-
MIAMI BEACH--FORMER DADE COUNTY MAYOR CHUCK HALL WON A LANDSLIDE
VICTORY TUESDAY FOR MAYOR OF MIAMI BEACH, SUCCEEDING JAY DERMER WHO
DID NOT SEEK REELECTION.
MALL RECEIVED 19,569 VOTES UNOFFICIALLY, AND HIS CLOSEST OPPONENT
MAX FELDMAN RECEIVED 2,755.
-0-
BENTON HARBOR, MICH. CHARLES JOSEPH BECAME BENTON HARBOR'S FIRST
BLACK MAYOR TUESDAY, DEFEATING INCUMSENT WILBER SMITH BY A BETTER IdAV
2-1 MARGIN. BENTON HARBOR'S POPULATION OF 16,500 IS 63 PER CENT
BLACK.
-0-
NEWCOMERSTOWN, OHIO--ROW HOOKER, A 19-YEAR-OLD COLLEGE JUNIOR, WON
ELECTION IDESDAY As MAYOR OF TAIS EAST CENTRAL OHIO VILLAGE OF 4,503.
HOOKER, A WRITE-IN CANDIDATE WHO PLEDGED TO STOP "HOT-RODDING" ON
THE STREETS HERE, GAINED 1,061 VOTES TO A TOTAL OF 491 FOR HIS FOUR
OPPONENTS.
"X"
CEDAR FALLS, IOWA--A UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN IOWA GRADUATE STUDENT
WHO CALLED HIMSELF AN "ENVIRONMENTALIST" DEFEATED THE INCUMBENT MAYOR OF
CEDAR FALLS TUESDAY.
JOHN CREWS, 24, DEFEATED FRANK WILLIAMS, A CITY COUNCILMAN WHO HAD
BEEN SERVING OUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS MAYOR WHO RESIGNED.
CREWS HAD STRONGLY OPPOSED THE BUILDING OF A FREEWAY THROUGH CEDAR
FALLS, BUT WILLIAMS HAD SUPPORTED THE MASURE. THE FREEWAY WOULD RUIN
A CITY PARK AND CAUSE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, CREWS SAID.
-0-
BALTIMORE- DEMOCRAT WILLIAM SCHAFER BEAT REPUBLICAN DR. ROSS
PIERPONT BY A LARGE MARGIN FOR MAYOR.
-0-
SALT LAKE CITY--E. J. GARN, THE WATER COMMISSIONER, WAS
ELECTED MAYOR BY BEATING PARKS CHIEF CONRAD HARRISON BY A 3-1 MARGIN.
-0-
SACRAMENTO, CALIF. INCUMBENT RICHARD MARRIOTT WON A SECOND TERM
BY A LANDSLIDE IN THE FIRST DIRECT ELECTION OF A MAYOR IN CALIFORNIA'S
CAPITAL CITY IN 60 YEARS. THE LOSER WAS MILTON MOGHEE, THE CITY'S
FIRST BLACK CITY COUNCILMAN.
-2-
SAN DIEGO, CALIF. ASSEMBLYMAN PETE WILSON, A FORMER GOP CAMPAIGN
WORKER FOR PRESIDENT NIXON, EASILY DEFEATED ATTORNEY ED BUTLER FOR
MAYOR.
-0-
AUGUSTA MAINE VOTERS DEFEATED A REFERENDUM TO REPEAL THE
STATE INCOME TAX BY A MARGIN OF NEARLY 3-1.
-0-
TALLAHASSEE--FLORIDA VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY APPROVED A CORPORATE
PROFITS TAX. GOV. REUBIN ASKEW ASKED FOR THE TAX IN ORDER TO REDUCE
INDIVIDUAL TAX LOADS.
11/3--GE914A
Dent
THE WHITE HOUSE /
WASHINGTON
Wilson (61%) 115,417
Bester (38.1%) 71,321
100% precent reparted
briening # Heary - Company Peni
hugan -
\
November 2, 1971
ELECTION RETURNS
CONGRESSIONAL RACE:
Pennsylvania 18th - 51 of 355 precincts
Heinz (R)
17,000
PROJECTED WINNER
Connelly (D)
7,000
GUBERNATORIAL RACES:
Kentucky - 30% in
Emberton (R)
138,000
Ford (D)
159,000
PROJECTED WINNER
Chandler (I)
--
Mississippi -
Waller (D)
69,000
PROJECTED WINNER
Evers (I)
16,000
Brady (I)
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:
Virginia -
Shafran (R)
20%
Kostel (D)
36%
Howell (I)
42%
PROJECTED WINNER
MAYORAL RACES:
Indianapolis -
Lugar (R)
139,000
WINNER
Neff (D)
88,000
Philadelphia -
Longstreth (R)
140,000
PROJECTED WINNER
Rizzo (D)
180,000
Cleveland -
Purke (R)
PROJECTED FOR UPSET
Pinckney (D)
VICTORY BUT TRAILING NOW
Carney (I)
San Francisco -
Dobbs (R)
Alioto (D)
Feinstein
Boston -
Hicks (D)
52,000
White (D)
69,000
PROJECTED WINNER
San Diego -
Wilson (R)
Butler (D)
Baltimore -
Pierpont (R)
Schaefer (D)
ASD
Harry S. Dent
10:10 PM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
RECOMMENDED TELEPHONE CALL
TO:
Mayor Richard Lugar of Indianapolis
ASD
RECOMMENDED BY: Harry Dent, Jeb Magruder, Gordon Strachan
PURPOSE:
To congratulate Mayor Lugar on his
re-election
BACKGROUND:
Lugar expected to have a squeaker but
won by 52,000, more than any GOP since
Ike.
TALKING POINTS: 1. Congratulations
2. Great tribute to win over a good,
tough opponent
3.
Potential leader for 1972 or
Governor?
November 2, 1971
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
RECOMMENDED TELEPHONE CALL
TO:
Congressman-elect John Heinz III
RECOMMENDED BY: Harry Dent AsoJeb Magruder, Gordon Strachan
PURPOSE:
To congratulate Congressman-elect Heinz
BACKGROUND:
Heinz retained Corbett's seat in Pittsburgh.
He will be more liberal. Had labor endorse-
ment.
TALKING POINTS: 1. Congratulations
2. This should give a good leg up on
1972's new district (he'll be
re-districted)
3. Look forward to working with you
4. Regards to your father
November 2, 1971
Howell - Ua ht Gov - and
Shafran- porr 3rd
-Va Sen elee - lost I seat
white - Boston 6290000le - big cote 42,000
hugar -
Hatcher - -Gary
alioto
Heenz - Pa
me - ne repeal of ine tax
alex
P
Hall only not
Lugar or Heing
- Have called ween + we insteal 730 Mty
may
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE N.W
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20006
November 2, 1971
(202) 333-0920
DETERMINED TO DE AN
CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By BJ NARS, Date 10-28-83
MEMORANDUM FOR THE STAFF
FROM: ROBERT C. ODLE, JR.
Beginning at 7:30 p.m. tonight we will monitor results of the various
races for the Attorney General and Mr. Haldeman as follows:
TV/Radio Monitoring
Bob Marik will head up a team of Jo Creighten, Biba Wagner, Mrs. Marik,
and two RNC staffers who will monitor WTOP--FM. WMAL-FM, WAVA-FM, ABC,
CBS, NBC, and Metro media. Results will be analyzed and fed into Rob
Odle.
UPI/AP Monitoring
Martha Duncan and Connie Cudd will monitor the wires from Herb Klein's
office at the White House and call in results to Rob Odle.
Telephones
Ken Rietz and Bart Porter will make telephone calls to key GOP officials
in the various states and feed in the results to Rob Odle. Calls will
be made as follows:
California. Mayor's races in Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco.
Rietz to get results from George Gorton and Ron Smith.
Connecticut. Mayor's races in New Haven, Waterbury, Stamford. Porter/
Sedam to get results from Chip Andrews.
Indiana. Mayor's races in Gary and Indianapolis. Rietz
Keith
Bulen.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED I0 DE
ADMINTS .RATIVE
E.O. 120 5.
CONFIDENTIAL
By Bg
10-28-82
-2-
Kentucky. Governor's race. Porter
Gordon Wade.
Massachusetts. Mayor's race in Boston. Rietz
Mike Scully.
Mississippi. Governor's race. Porter/Sedam
Clarke Reed.
Ohio. Mayor's race in Cleveland. Rietz
John Andrews.
Pennsylvania. Mayor's race in Philadelphia; also congressional race.
Porter/Sedam to get results.
Tally Desk
Rob Odle, assisted by Jeanne Mason, will keep a running tally on all
races based on information from Marik, Duncan/Cudd, and Porter/Rietz/
Sedam. This will be available to Mr. Haldeman and the Attorney General.
CC: Mr. Harry S. Dent
Mr Jeb S. Magruder
Mr.
Gordon C. Strachan
CONFIDENTIAL
FU
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
11/2
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE. N W.
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20006
October 29, 1971
(202) 333-0920
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
CONFIDENTIAL
E.O. 12005, 6-102
By Bg
10-28-82
MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
Jeb asked me to let you know that we will be on hand here Tuesday
evening, November 2, to monitor the various mayoral and guberna-
torial races throughout the country. A summary of these races is
attached.
We will monitor AP, UPI, ABC, CBS, and NBC, as well as make tele-
phone calls to some of our people in the various states.
Should you desire current information on any of the races during
the course of the evening, we will have it here for you.
ROBERT C. ODLE, JR.
Attachment
LOCC: Mr. Gordon C. Strachan
CONFIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS 1971
November 2, 1971
CALIFORNIA: Sacramento
Non-partisan mayor
Marriot (incumbent)
McGhee (vice-mayor)
San Diego
Non-partisan mayor
Wilson (Rep.)
Butler
San Francisco
Partisan mayor
Alioto (incumbent) (Dem.)
Finestein (Dem.)
Dobbs (Rep.)
CONNECTICUT: New Haven
Partisan mayor
Guida (incumbent) (Dem.)
Capra (Rep.)
Stamford
Partisan mayor
Wilensky (incumbent) (Rep.)
Hume (Dem.)
Waterbury
Partisan mayor
Mambruno (incumbent) (Dem.)
Minervino (Rep.)
FLORIDA: Miami
Nov. 16
INDIANA: Gary
Partisan mayor
Hatcher (incumbent) (Dem.)
Nering (Rep.)
Indianapolis
Partisan mayor
Luger (incumbent) (Rep.)
Neff (Dem.)
KENTUCKY:
Partisan governor
Emberton (Rep.)
Ford (Lt. Gov.) (Dem.)
Smith (American)
Chandler (Ind.)
MARYLAND: Baltimore
Partisan mayor
Schaefer (Pres. city coun.)
(Dem.)
Tierpont (Rep.)
MASSACHUSETTS: Boston
Partisan mayor
White (incumbent) (Dem.)
Hicks (Dem.)
2
MISSISSIPPI:
Partisan governor
Waller (Dem.)
Evers (Ind.)
NEW JERSEY: Jersey City
Non-partisan mayor
Jordan
Longo
Gangemi
OHIO: Cleveland
Partisan mayor
Carney (Dem.)
Perk (Rep.)
Pinkney (Ind.)
PENNSYLVANIA: Philadelphia
Partisan mayor
Rizzo (Dem.)
Longstreth (Rep.)
VIRGINIA:
Partisan Lt. Governor
Howell (Ind.)
Shafran (Rep.)
Kostel (Dem.)
ELECTIONS
November 2, 1971
Gubernatorial Races:
Kentucky --
Tom Emberton (R)
Lt. Governor Wendell Ford (D)
"Happy" Chandler (Independent)
Mississippi --
Bill Waller (D)
Charles Evers (Independent)
Tom Brady (Independent)
Mayoralty Races:
Indianapolis ---
Dick Lugar (R)
John Neff (D)
Philadelphia --
Frank Rizzo (D)
Thacher Longstreth (R)
Cleveland --
Ralph Purke (R)
Arnold Pickney (Stokes' candidate)
James Carney (Independent)
San Francisco --
Harold Dobbs (R)
Joe Alioto (D)
Dianne Feinstein
continued
-2-
Mayoralty Races - continued:
Boston --
Louise Day Hicks (D)
Kevin White (D)
San Diego --
Pete Wilson (R)
Ed Butler (D)
Miami --
David Kennedy (D)
Baltimore --
Ross Pierpont (R)
Don Schaefer (D)
Additional Races:
Virginia Lt. Governorship --
Shafron, GOP State Delegate
Kostel (D)
Howell (Independent)
Pennsylvania 18th Special Congressional --
John Heinz III (R)
John Connelly (D)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
November 2, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Election Watch
Harry Dent, Jeb Magruder, and I will be in Harry Dent's
office this evening monitoring the results of the
elections today. The major races include:
Gubernatorial Races:
Kentucky -- Tom Emberton (R) V. Lt. Governor Wendell
Ford (D) and "Happy" Chandler (Independent).
Mississippi -- Bill Waller (D) V. Charles Evers
(Independent) and Tom Brady (Independent)
Mayoralty Races:
Indianapolis -- Dick Lugar (R) V. John Neff (D)
Philadelphia -- Frank Rizzo (D) V. Thacher Longstreth (R).
Cleveland -- Ralph Purke (R) V. Arnold Pickney (Stokes'
candidate) and James Carney (Independent).
San Francisco -- Harold Dobbs (R) V. Joe Alioto (D) and
Dianne Feinstein.
Boston -- Louise Day Hicks (D) V. Kevin White (D) -
San Diego -- Pete Wilson (R) V. Ed Butler (D)
Miami -- David Kennedy (D) V. unknown liberals
Baltimore -- Ross Pierpont (R) V. Don Schaefer (D)
Additional Races:
Virginia Lt. Governorship -- GOP State Delegate Shafron
V. Kostel (D) and Howell (Independent)
Pennsylvania
--
18th Special Congressional/John
Heinz III (R) V. John Connelly (D)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
November 2, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Election Watch
Harry Dent, Jeb Magruder, and I will be in Harry Dent's
office this evening monitoring the results of the
elections today. The major races include:
Gubernatorial Races:
Kentucky -- Tom Emberton (R) V. Lt. Governor Wendell
Ford (D) and "Happy" Chandler (Independent).
Mississippi -- Bill Waller (D) V. Charles Evers
(Independent) and Tom Brady (Independent).
Mayoralty Races:
Indianapolis -- Dick Lugar (R) V. John Neff (D).
Philadelphia -- Frank Rizzo (D) V. Thacher Longstreth (R).
Cleveland -- Ralph Purke (R) V. Arnold Pickney (Stokes'
candidate) and James Carney (Independent).
San Francisco -- Harold Dobbs (R) V. Joe Alioto (D) and
Dianne Feinstein.
Boston -- Louise Day Hicks (D) V. Kevin White (D)
San Diego -- Pete Wilson (R) V. Ed Butler (D)
Miami --- David Kennedy (D) V. unknown liberals
Baltimore -- Ross Pierpont (R) V. Don Schaefer (D)
Additional Races:
Virginia Lt. Governorship -- GOP State Delegate Shafron
V. Kostel (D) and Howell (Independent)
Pennsylvania - 18th Special Congressional/John
Heinz III (R) V. John Connelly (D)
Aneednt
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: October 6, 1971
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT ASD File Politis'
Please handle
For your information
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 5, 1971
TO:
Harry Dent
FROM:
Peter Mill paugh
For the record, I have pulled the newspaper coverage of
the Wallace fund-raiser in New York City together. A
check with the New York County Chairman indicates that
the affair may not have been anywhere near what was
reported. The American Hotel was not filled as reported
the Georgian Room of the hotel was filled. Also re-
ported was 1,000 seats taken. The hotel kitchen reports
actually serving 387 dinners to the group that night. Two
planes came from Montgomery with Wallace carrying about
300 people.
The Reverend Carl McIntire offered the benediction.
THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 1971
Wallace, Here to "Test the Atmosphere,' Attacks President and Mayor
By JAMES F. CLARITY
campaign, Mr. Wallace smiled Los Angeles Nov. 6. The funds Mayor was doing a poor job
members of the United Nations?
The Alabamian said he had
and said:
raised from the dinners would
Gov. George C. Wallace of
running the city, had a "per-
He answered:
no suggestions for Presidential
"It almost looks like it. But
presumably be used in a cam-
Alabama flew into the city yes-
missive attitude" toward mug-
"I would prefer, if the United
nominations to fill the two va-
we're still not quiet sure what
paign if Mr. Wallace decided
cant seats on the Supreme
terday, conceding that his ap-
to run for the Presidency, as
gers, and would not make a
States wants to give Red China
Court. "The Supreme Court is
pearance had the look of a
we'll do next year."
he did in 1968.
good President.
a seat, that we give them our
almost beyond repair," he said.
Presidential campaign and lash-
He said he would decide early
At the airport, where he ar-
The Governor was no kinder
own seat and move the United
Mr. Wallace said he would
ing out at a couple of old tar-
next year whether to run for
rived shortly before noon, Mr.
He was asked if he agreed with
Nations to Russia."
not "second-guess" Governor
President.
Wallace gave crisp answers to
an allegation by Earl Goodwin,
He added that Communist
Rockefeller on how the rebel-
gets-the Nixon Administration
Dinner Address
questions. One of the first was one f his supporters, who is China was the "biggest export- lion at the Attica Correctional
and Mavor Lindsay.
how he liked being in the Demo-
under a Federal income tax er" of heroin and "the killer facility was handled. But he
Mr. Wallace, with his wife,
Mr. Wallace was here to ad-
cratic party with Mayor Lind-
evasion indictment, that the
of U.S. men in Vietnam,"
said that such uprisings were
Cornelia, at his side, said at a dress a $50-a-plate dinner at
say.
Nixon Administration was en-
which, he said "caused liberals
encouraged by "the permissive
news conference at Kennedy the Americana Hotel. Profits
International Airport that he are to go to the Northeastern
'Greatest Regard'
gaged in "political persecution"
concern."
attitude of the courts."
to hurt Mr. Wallace nationally.
had come to New York for the Citizens Committee of Wallace
"Like to have him along with
"I agree," Mr. Wallace said.
purpose of "testing the atmos-
Friends and Supporters. The
me-doing what?" Mr. Wallace
He said he thought the Admin-
phere."
last time he spoke in New York quipped, as his traveling com-
istration would take such
Flving with him on a char-
was last December, at a John
panions laughed.
action "against any movement
tered DC-8 jet from Montgom-
Birch Society dinner.
"I have the greatest personal
that gives them a problem-
ery, Ala., were 160 of his sup-
He has made a number of
regard for Mayor Lindsay,' Mr.
and we give them a problem."
porters, and 130 more follow-
speeches at other dinners in re-
Wallace continued, "but I don't
What did he think of the
ers were flying into Newark.
cent months in Ohio, Florida
think Mayor Lindsay and
Nixon Administration's policy
cbewite
When it was suggested that his
and North Carolina. He is sched-
George Wallace are compatible
of having both Communist
and wife, Cornelia, arriving here
trip resembled a Presidential uled to address another one inpolitically." Then he said the China and Nationalist China as
1,000 Cheer Wallace at N.Y. Dinner
By Stephen Isaacs
WB 9/26/71
Washington Post Staff Writer
party candidates to deal with
NEW YORK, Sept. 25-Ala-
him.
bama Gov. George C. Wallace
Just Squeaked In
brought his 1972 campaign to
New York tonight, filling a
Although political polls show
1,000-seat ballroom of the
that Wallace has a steady 10
Americana Hotel.
to 12 per cent support in the
Wallace, clad in his new
country, he barely squeaked
styles - including a pastel
in as governor of Alabama,
blue shirt and brightly striped
winning by 30,000 votes out
wide tie - spoke to an audi-
of a million cast. Politicians
ence that included more close
say his new, more moderate
eropped haircuts than one
stance on race is his perceiv-
knew existed in New York
ing less support on that issue
these days.
in the country today.
The audience, which paid $50
Tonight's dinner included a
a seat was made up primarily
Dixieland band. At one point,
of residents of New York's five
when the band played "When
boroughs, according to a Wal-
the Saints Go Marching In,"
lace campaign official. His last
a black waiter at the Ameri-
campaign visit to New York
cana strutted through the
was in October of 1968, when
aisles waving a white bowler
he sold out Madison Square
inscribed with a "God Bless
Garden.
Outside the ballroom Wal-
Wallace tonight continued
lace supporters sold such
in his new tenor, playing down
items as George Wallace me-
race. Instead, he attacked,
dallions tie pins, lapel pins,
"the pseudo-intellectuals," the
record albums, bumper stick-
United Nations, the Council
ers, and after he spoke, the
on Foreign Relations, com-
governor signed photographs
of himself for members of the
munism, permissiveness, the
audience.
Rockefeller and Ford Founda-
tions, disarmament. President
His next fund-raising dinner/
is tentatively scheduled for
Nixon and. repeatedly, The
Nov. 6 in Los Angeles.
New York Times.
Biggest Applause
His biggest applause came
when he said hc hadn't deci-
ded yet to run for the presi-
dency, "but if I decide, if we
decide I'm going to run I'm
going to win the presidency."
At that, the audience rose to
its feet applauding wildly and,
for 34 seconds, chanted "We
Want Wallace."
He also drew standing ap-
plause when he said that tax-
UPI Telephoto
exempt foundations would be
a major 1972 campaign issue.
In New York to test the atmosphere for
at the Americana Hotel. Although speak-
If you remove the founda-
a new presidential bid, Alabama Governor
ing to raise money for a possible run, Wal-
tions' tax advantage, Wallace
George Wallace is greeted by supporters
lace insists he won't decide until 1972.
said. there "won't be any
money to fund programs to
"The people of this coun-
in the last seven months, bore whether to run in 1972 his
lestroy administrative rules
try," Wallace said, "have ac-
all the festivity of a revival,
for prisons. and today the big
cepted nondiscrimination in
including a benediction by the
associates say he plans to try
foundations who made their
their school system and they
Rev. Carl McIntire.
to do well enough to dead-
money in the free enterprise
want quality education for
Although Wallace says he
lock the presidential race and
yste 111 this country and
every child regardless of their
has not made up his mind
race or color or religion or
thus force one of the major
THE WASHINGTON WHITE HOUSE Balk
TO: H.
FROM: Bob
September R. Finch FYI HALDEMAN hopa 20 J8m see lweer
Nota
firment ment
R
File
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE MEXICAN-AYERICAN:
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN IMPACT ON
THE 1972 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Prepared by The League of United Latin
American Citizens and The Mexican-American
Bar Association of California.
June, 1971
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN:
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN IMPACT ON
THE 1972 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
This report was compiled by The League of United Latin
American Citizens (Nationwide) and The Mexican-American Bar
Association of California,* with the assistance of The Mexican-
American Population Commission and Graciela Olivarez, Esq.,
Vice-Chairman [President's] Commission On Population and the
American Future. Additional assistance was secured from
legislators, the United States Census Bureau, and the American
G.I. Forum.
*Prepared under the supervision of Louis Garcia, Esq., President,
Mexican-American Bar Association, and Chairman of the Mexican-
American Population Commission of California, and Paul Garza,
National Director, The League of United Latin American Citizens.
For information contact: Louis Garcia, Esq., 870 Market, San Francisco,
California 94103.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION: 101 ELECTORAL VOTES
1-2
TABLE I
MEXICAN-AMERICANS HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER IN 4 STATES
3-4
CALIFORNIA
5
ILLINOIS
6
NEW MEXICO
7
TEXAS
8
COLORADO
9
ARIZONA
10
MICHIGAN
11
OTHER STATES
12
CONCLUSION: "A MEXICAN-AMERICAN STRATEGY"
13
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN:
AN ANALYSIS OF THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN IMPACT ON
THE 1972 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
INTRODUCTION: 101 ELECTORAL VOTES
The President's Cabinet Committee on Opportunity for the Spanish
Speaking stated that the number of Mexican-Americans in the United States
is at least seven million (7,000,000). [Washington Star, November 6, 1970]
The United States Census Bureau in its February, 1971, partial census
estimated that 86% of all Mexican-Americans reside in the Southwest, with
the vast majority concentrated in Texas and California.
In both Texas and California the number of Mexican-Americans
exceeds the number of blacks. Moreover, the number of Mexican-Americans
in California exceeds the number of blacks even in New York, the State
with the largest number of blacks in the nation. (According to the 1970
Census there are 2,100,000 blacks in New York, and based on the Mexican-
American Population Commission's Official Census Report, the Mexican-
American population in California is 2,980,000.)
The Mexican-American, particularly in the Southwest, has
been ignored as a political force until fairly recently. In 1970,
Senator Yarborough was defeated in the primary partially because he failed
to generate Mexican-American support. Senator Murphy's defeat in the
1970 general election was partially due to Mexican-American hostility
to his grower-orientation and his alleged indifference to the plight
of the farm worker.
This monograph is believed to be the first effort to analyze
the significance of the Mexican-American vote on the Electoral College
and its impact on Presidential Elections.
As set forth in Table I, it is the thesis of this monograph,
based on an analysis of 1960 and 1968 Presidential Elections, that
Mexican-Americans could hold the balance of power in four states with a
total electoral vote of 101. These four states are: California (45
electoral votes), Texas (26 electoral votes), Illinois (26 electoral
votes) and New Mexico (4 electoral votes). Some politicians have
suggested that the impact of the Mexican-American vote in Texas, for
example, could exceed Mayor Daley's impact on Illinois.
MEXICAN-AMERICANS HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER IN 4 STATES
TABLE I
# OF
ELIGIBLE
MEXICAN
MEXICAN-
TOTAL
REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATIC
AMERICAN
AMERICAN
MEXICAN-
ELECTORAL
MARGIN OF VICTORY IN '60&'68(2)
VOTERS
MULTIPLE
AMERICAN
STATES
VOTE
1960
1968
IN '72 (4)
FACTOR
(1)
POPULATION
California
45
35 thousand
223 thousand (R)
1,788,000
51
2,980,000
Illinois
26
9
"
(D)
135
=
(R)
166,000
18
275,000
New Mexico
4
2
"
(D)
39
"
(R)
177,000
88
295,000
Texas
26
46
il
(D)
39
"
(D)
1,357,000
35
2,250,000
Colorado (5)
7
71
"
(R)
74
"
(R)
145,000
2
243,000
(1) The Mexican-American Multiple Factor relates to the number of times the potential
Mexican-American vote is greater than the difference in election results in either the
1960 or 1968 Presidential Election, using the election with the closest result. Thus,
if the Mexican-American vote is 100,000 and the difference in an election between the
two top candidates is 20,000, the Multiple Factor is five (100,000
For
=
( 20,000
5
example,
the Multiple Factor in Texas is 35. That is, the potential eligible Mexican-American
voters are 35 times greater than the difference between the Republican and Democratic
candidates' votes in 1968 (1,357,000 Mexican-American votes
(
39,000 vote differential
= 35 }
(2) Statistics on the differential are from the New York Times Encyclopedic Alamanac
1971, and the 1971 World Almanac (published by Newspaper Enterprise Association, Inc.)
(3) President Nixon's Cabinet Committee on Opportunity for the Spanish Speaking stated
that there is a minimum of seven million Mexican-Americans in the United States.
According to the partial Census Bureau statistics of February, 1971, 86% of all Mexican-
Americans reside in the Southwest. In April, 1971, the Mexican-American Population
Commission issued its Official Census Report showing that the Mexican-American population
as of October, 1970, in California was 2,980,000 (overall Spanish-surnamed population in
California was 3,140,000). The Mexican-American Population Commission included among its
Commissioners the Vice-Chairman of the [President's] "Commission on Population and the
American Future." Input into this monograph included information from the United States
bor Department, We The Mexican-Americans and the President's Vice-Chairman of the
mmmission on Population and the American Future. Some statistics were secured from
rominent legislators who relied on such statistics as Labor Department work force
tudies,
the February 1971 Census Bureau Report, and Spanish-surnamed statistics in
e public schools.
) As a result of the 18 year old vote, it is estimated that as much as 67% of the nation's
pulation will be potentially eligible to vote in 1972. Because Mexican-Americans have
ended in the past to vote at a lower rate than the general population and because the
imber of Mexican-Americans under 18 is somewhat larger than for the population as a whole,
e number of Mexican-Americans eligible to vote was reduced by 10% in order to provide
conservative estimate of potential voters. However, the 1970 Voting Rights Act's
imination of literacy requirements for voting and the increasing interest in voting
the young Mexican-Americans, may offset this; and, thus the number of potential eligible
ters may be underestimated.
) Based upon past elections, the Mexican-American vote in Colorado, in the absence of other
ctors, is not likely to have any significant impact since it is less than twice the
fferential in either the '60 or ' 68 elections.
CALIFORNIA
According to the 1970 Census, California, with 45 electoral
votes, has a population of 19,953,134 persons. The number of Mexican-
Americans, according to the Mexican-American Population Commission Official
Census Report, as of October, 1970, was 2,980,000 or 14.9% of California's
overall population. This statistic on the Mexican-American population was
believed to be a slight underestimate by the U.S. Civil Rights Commission.
The Mexican-American Population Commission's Official Census
Report shows that in the nation's most populous county, Los Angeles County,
which has a population of approximately 7 million, Mexican-Americans
constitute almost one in every five persons (18.2% of the county's residents).
This Census Report projects, based on recent population growths, that the
Mexican-American population of Los Angeles County will be 21.1% by 1975.
(For example, California State Department of Education statistics show
that as of October 1970, 23.7% of all kindergarten and first grade students
in Los Angeles County Schools were Spanish surnamed.)
The number of potential eligible voters in 1972 is conservatively
estimated to be 1,788,000 (see footnote 4, supra). Assuming a 50% turnout, (6)
the number of Mexican-American voters would be 894,000 or 25 times greater
than the difference between the Republican and Democratic presidential votes
in the 1960 election (894,000 = 25 }
( 35,000
Thus, a shift of even 5% in the Mexican-American vote could
affect the outcome.
(6) The 50% Mexican-American figure is approximately 40% less than the
Presidential turnout for Anglos; and even if the Mexican-American voter
turnout is as low as 33% of eligible voters, the Mexican-American would
have an impact on the elections in California, Texas, Illinois & New Mexico.
For example, in California if there was only a 33% voter turnout, a shift
of 7%, instead of 5%, would be necessary to affect a Presidential Election.
ILLINOIS
According to the 1970 Census, Illinois, with 26 electoral
votes, has a population of 11,114,000 persons.
The number of potential eligible voters in 1972 is
estimated to be 166,000. Assuming a 50% Mexican-American voter
turnout, the number of Mexican-American voters (83,000) exceeds the
vote difference in the 1960 election between the Republican and
Democratic candidates by more than 9 times (83,000 = 9
(
}
.
9,000
Thus, a shift of 11% in the Mexican-American vote could
affect the direction of Illinois' 26 electoral votes.
NEW MEXICO
According to the 1970 Census, New Mexico, with 4 electoral
votes, has a population of 1,016,000 persons. It has the only Mexican-
American U.S. Senator and has the highest percentage of Mexican-Americans
of any state (29%).
The number of potential eligible voters in 1972 is con-
servatively estimated to be 177,000. Assuming a 50% Mexitan-American
voter turnout, the number of Mexican-American voters (88,000) exceeds
the vote difference in the 1960 election between the Republican and
Democratic candidates by 44 times
( (88,000 2,000 = 44 }. } .
Thus, a shift of only 3% in the Mexican-American vote could
affect the outcome in New Mexico.
TEXAS
According to the 1970 Census, Texas, with 26 electoral
votes, has a population of 11,196,000.
The number of potential eligible voters in 1972 is
conservatively estimated to be 1,357,000. Assuming a 50% Mexican-
American voter turnout, the number of Mexican-American voters
(678,000) exceeds the vote difference in the 1968 Presidential
Election between the Republican and Democratic candidates by 17
times
( (678,000 39,000 = 17 } }-
Thus, a shift of 6% in the Mexican-American vote could
have altered the 1968 Presidential Election and a shift of 7% could
have altered the 1960 election, which was decided by only 46,000
votes.
COLORADO
According to the 1970 Census, Colorado, with 7 electoral
votes, has a population of 2,207,000.
The number of potential eligible voters in 1972 is 145,000.
Assuming a 50% turnout (72,000), the Mexican-American vote is twice
the differential between the Republican and Democratic candidates in
both 1960 and 1968. It would therefore require a shift of 50% in
the Mexican-American vote to affect the outcome in Colorado, based
upon 1960 or 1968 patterns. This appears to be quite unlikely,
ARIZONA
According to the 1970 Census, Arizona, with 6 electoral
votes, has a population of 1,772,000.
The Mexican-American population of Arizona is approximately
264,000, according to the Vice-Chairman of the [President's] Commission
on Population and the American Future. It is conservatively estimated
that the number of eligible potential Mexican-American voters is 159,000.
Assuming 50% of the eligible voters actually vote, this would mean
approximately 79,500 Mexican-American voters. This would generally
not be sufficient to influence the outcome of any Presidential Election
in Arizona.
MICHIGAN
According to the 1970 Census, Michigan, with 21 electoral
votes, has a population of 8,875,000. According to the Vice-Chairman
of the [President's] Commission on Population and the American Future,
Michigan has an estimated 100,000 Mexican-Americans. It is conservatively
estimated that there are approximately 66,000 potential eligible
Mexican-American voters. Assuming 50% actually vote, the number of
Mexican-American voters (33,000) is not sufficient to influence the
outcome in Michigan, according to 1960 and 1968 voting patterns. (In
the 1960 election, for example, the difference between the two leading
Presidential candidates was almost 67,000 votes.)
OTHER STATES
According to the 1970 publication We the Mexican-Americans
(published by the U.S. Department of Commerce/Bureau of the
Census, text by Graciela Olivarez, Esq.), the!e are Mexican-Americans
in all 50 states. However, based upon past voting patterns, the number
in the remaining states is unlikely, according to recent past election
patterns, to influence the outcome in any state to any significant
degree.
According to the February 1971 Census Report on Spanish-
surnamed individuals, there are almost 2 million Puerto Ricans residing
in the United States. Since Puerto Rican problems are often parallel
to those of the Mexican-American (Spanish language, rural backgrounds,
high unemployment, poor housing, police brutality, and migrancy), it
is possible that Puerto Rican voting patterns may run parallel to
those of Mexican-Americans. The primary impact of such a parallel
voting pattern would be on New York's 41 electoral votes. (The number
of Puerto Rican voters in New York State exceeds the differential
between the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates in the
1968 election.)
CONCLUSION: "A MEXICAN-AMERICAN STRATEGY"
Mexican-Americans are the second largest identifiable
minority in this nation and the second largest potential voting block.
More than 5 million Mexican-Americans reside in Texas and California
alone.
Based on 1960 and 1968 Presidential Election patterns, a shift
of even 6% in the Mexican-American vote could affect the elections in
California, Illinois, New Mexico, and Texas. These states have an
aggregate of 101 electoral votes. This is sufficient to have altered
either the 1960 or 1968 Presidential elections.
These statistics on the significance of the Mexican-American
vote indicate that in 1972 the "Mexican-American Strategy" might become
as important as the so-called Southern strategy allegedly was in 1968.
Excluding Texas, the remaining ten Southern states (7) total
electoral
vote (104 electoral votes) is virtually identical to the electoral
vote in the four "Mexican-American Strategy" states.
(7) Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, & Virginia.
File
THE WHITE HOUSE
Poli
WASHINGTON
August 11, 1971
HIGH PRIORITY
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
SUBJECT:
Odds and Ends
I went over to Magruder's last night for dinner and got
into a rather lengthy discussion about the whole polling
apparatus and what is going to be happening there and in
particular, the concept of being able to reach the ambivalent
voter or swing voter by identifying him.
2
DeVries
Do we have any definitive literature on exactly what Magruder
is proposing and how he proposes this will be done. I have
maril memo
sat through Marik's conceptionalization of these things, and
while they seem nice, do we have any hard statistics or proof that
something like this can be done?
Also, what's happening on youth now? Reitz is apparently cranking
BAK
a lot, but so far I haven E seen any proposals for setting up a
massive registration drive this Fall or anything else. Is anything
happening there? In addition what's happening with Colson's great
youth program. As you know, this was sent back to Colson to be
reworked; SO far we haven't seen anything.
On a different subject, you will recall that Gallup just ran some
polls about prosperity and the likelihood of war, and whether or
not people thought they would be more prosperous under a Democratic
or Republican Administration. This is an interesting point no
doubt, but hardly valid, since over half the country or somewhere
near that, identifies itself as being Democratic anyway.
A more feasible question and one we might want to ask on our next
poll (that would be the one done at the end of August) is do
people think they would be more prosperous, or is there less chance
of war, etc., under Richard Nixon than under Muskie,or Kennedy and
Nixon. This way we are getting at the man rather than party
affiliation, as which you know, gives a biased result.
2
We might get some interesting readings here that we
might want to go back to Gallup on.
5
Speaking of Gallup, what is Rumsfeld doing in terms of
talking to the Gallup organization. As you will recall,
he was going to visit them and try and turn them around
on a couple of issues. Has anything been done here?
Also, Benham was going to be talking to them. Has any-
thing been done here? If not, you may want to tell
Benham that we are going to ask Derge to talk to them.
Just so there is no further misunderstanding, you should
be out of your office whenever it is advantageous. Get
out and mix with the people who are doing the work in all
these different areas, since that is the only way we can
stay plugged into what is really hapening, rather than
being spoon fed reports that let us know only what they want
us to know.
My concern is that you stayed very well plugged not only
in the polling area, but all political areas. Has
2
Mitchell held another political meeting yet? We probably
should begin to take a hard look at what is happening
politically.
Also, will you check Jay Wilkinson to see whether or not
he ever received his 1 500 bucks or whatever the amount
of money was that he needed.
8/11
Also, when we get together this afternoon or tomorrow at
a
the latest, let's discuss the whole intelligence opera-
tion, not in terms of your writing any formal paper, but
just an analysis of what is being developed here.
Finally, we've got to develop a better method for you
10
to keep plugged in with Haldeman The weekly report is
?
a good step in this direction, but there should be other
items too.