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This file contains:
From Jeb Magruder to Larry Higby. RE: Message that reads, "Per your request, enclosed are my thoughts regarding the President's posture during the campaign." Included are thoughts concerning the campaign, and the role of the media. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/4/1971
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Presidential campaign style for 1972, and ideas for campaign slogans like Truman's, "Give em' hell" style that will motivate voters. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1971
From Charles Colson to The President. RE: The Broder-Johnson Series. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/6/1972
From Doug Hallett to Charles Colson. RE: Broader and Johnson's main points in their series, "The Politicians and the People." 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/3/1972
A newspaper article written by Richard Wilson that's entitled, "Nixon Political Skill is Key to Democratic Hopes." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
An article from The Wall Street Journal entitled, "Nixon: A feeling of Lost Opportunity." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/26/1971
A newspaper article from The New York Times discussing the President's actions in 1971, as well as the tensions between U.S.- Soviet trade. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
A two-sided newspaper article from the Chicago Daily News that includes multiple stories such as: "Stumped? Here's How Auto Insurance Plan Works", and "What's Really Bugging Middle Class Americans and Why They Think as They Do." 6 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Newspaper], 12/18/1971
Handwritten notes entitled, "Lessons From FDR Summary." Some ideas included are: Opening the campaign as late as possible, use the presidency, not candidacy, and ignore opponent-don't mention them by name. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From W. Richard Howard to Charles Colson. RE: The meeting with Sindlinger, and his analysis of the American voter beyond statistical reports. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/27/1972
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The interesting points made by Charlie Snyder; Wallace's top man. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/25/1972
From Charles Snider to Charles Colson. RE: The report from Florida that states that voters are not supporters of either Nixon or McGovern, but many are standing behind George Wallace. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 9/22/1972
A newspaper article from The Wall Street Journal entitled, "Thinking Things Over", which emphasizes the fact that none of Nixon's enemies have been able to tarnish his bid for reelection up to this point. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
From Bill Safire to Haldeman. RE: Critique of First Campaign Swing. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The President's trip to New York and California. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
A report listing the tentative states to be polled; with a total of 15 listed as "target states", and 5 listed as "important". 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article from The Christian Science Monitor entitled, "How Political Writers See 1972: Nixon Leading All Democrats." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 1/12/1972
Article from The Christian Science Monitor entitled, "Nixon Leading All Democrats." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Handwritten notes that provide statistical information on Nixon's popularity in comparison to McGoverns. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Time Magazine article entitled, "Nixon Moves Out to an Astonishing Lead." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/2/1972
Scholar Source Context
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26145840
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WHSF: Contested, 21-2
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document
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26145840
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WHSF: Contested, 21-2
description
This file contains:
From Jeb Magruder to Larry Higby. RE: Message that reads, "Per your request, enclosed are my thoughts regarding the President's posture during the campaign." Included are thoughts concerning the campaign, and the role of the media. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/4/1971
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Presidential campaign style for 1972, and ideas for campaign slogans like Truman's, "Give em' hell" style that will motivate voters. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1971
From Charles Colson to The President. RE: The Broder-Johnson Series. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/6/1972
From Doug Hallett to Charles Colson. RE: Broader and Johnson's main points in their series, "The Politicians and the People." 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/3/1972
A newspaper article written by Richard Wilson that's entitled, "Nixon Political Skill is Key to Democratic Hopes." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
An article from The Wall Street Journal entitled, "Nixon: A feeling of Lost Opportunity." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/26/1971
A newspaper article from The New York Times discussing the President's actions in 1971, as well as the tensions between U.S.- Soviet trade. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
A two-sided newspaper article from the Chicago Daily News that includes multiple stories such as: "Stumped? Here's How Auto Insurance Plan Works", and "What's Really Bugging Middle Class Americans and Why They Think as They Do." 6 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Newspaper], 12/18/1971
Handwritten notes entitled, "Lessons From FDR Summary." Some ideas included are: Opening the campaign as late as possible, use the presidency, not candidacy, and ignore opponent-don't mention them by name. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From W. Richard Howard to Charles Colson. RE: The meeting with Sindlinger, and his analysis of the American voter beyond statistical reports. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/27/1972
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The interesting points made by Charlie Snyder; Wallace's top man. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/25/1972
From Charles Snider to Charles Colson. RE: The report from Florida that states that voters are not supporters of either Nixon or McGovern, but many are standing behind George Wallace. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 9/22/1972
A newspaper article from The Wall Street Journal entitled, "Thinking Things Over", which emphasizes the fact that none of Nixon's enemies have been able to tarnish his bid for reelection up to this point. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
From Bill Safire to Haldeman. RE: Critique of First Campaign Swing. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The President's trip to New York and California. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
A report listing the tentative states to be polled; with a total of 15 listed as "target states", and 5 listed as "important". 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article from The Christian Science Monitor entitled, "How Political Writers See 1972: Nixon Leading All Democrats." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 1/12/1972
Article from The Christian Science Monitor entitled, "Nixon Leading All Democrats." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Handwritten notes that provide statistical information on Nixon's popularity in comparison to McGoverns. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Time Magazine article entitled, "Nixon Moves Out to an Astonishing Lead." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/2/1972
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
21
2
11/4/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Jeb Magruder to Larry Higby. RE:
Message that reads, "Per your request,
enclosed are my thoughts regarding the
President's posture during the campaign."
Included are thoughts concerning the
campaign, and the role of the media. 3 pgs.
21
2
11/5/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE:
Presidential campaign style for 1972, and
ideas for campaign slogans like Truman's,
"Give em' hell" style that will motivate
voters. 2 pgs.
21
2
1/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Charles Colson to The President. RE:
The Broder-Johnson Series. 2 pgs.
21
2
1/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Doug Hallett to Charles Colson. RE:
Broader and Johnson's main points in their
series, "The Politicians and the People." 8
pgs.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Page 1 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
21
2
Campaign
Newspaper
A newspaper article written by Richard
Wilson that's entitled, "Nixon Political Skill
is Key to Democratic Hopes." 1 pg.
21
2
10/26/1971
Campaign
Newspaper
An article from The Wall Street Journal
entitled, "Nixon: A feeling of Lost
Opportunity." 2 pgs.
21
2
Campaign
Newspaper
A newspaper article from The New York
Times discussing the President's actions in
1971, as well as the tensions between U.S.-
Soviet trade. 2 pgs.
21
2
12/18/1971
Domestic Policy
Newspaper
A two-sided newspaper article from the
Chicago Daily News that includes multiple
stories such as: "Stumped? Here's How Auto
Insurance Plan Works", and "What's Really
Bugging Middle Class Americans and Why
They Think as They Do." 6 pgs.
21
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes entitled, "Lessons From
FDR Summary." Some ideas included are:
Opening the campaign as late as possible, use
the presidency, not candidacy, and ignore
opponent-don't mention them by name. 9 pgs.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Page 2 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
21
2
9/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
From W. Richard Howard to Charles Colson.
RE: The meeting with Sindlinger, and his
analysis of the American voter beyond
statistical reports. 4 pgs.
21
2
9/25/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The
interesting points made by Charlie Snyder;
Wallace's top man. 1 pg.
21
2
9/22/1972
Campaign
Letter
From Charles Snider to Charles Colson. RE:
The report from Florida that states that voters
are not supporters of either Nixon or
McGovern, but many are standing behind
George Wallace. 4 pgs.
21
2
Campaign
Newspaper
A newspaper article from The Wall Street
Journal entitled, "Thinking Things Over",
which emphasizes the fact that none of
Nixon's enemies have been able to tarnish his
bid for reelection up to this point. 3 pgs.
21
2
9/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Bill Safire to Haldeman. RE: Critique
of First Campaign Swing. 2 pgs.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Page 3 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
21
2
9/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Charles Colson to Haldeman. RE: The
President's trip to New York and California.
3 pgs.
21
2
Campaign
Report
A report listing the tentative states to be
polled; with a total of 15 listed as "target
states", and 5 listed as "important". 1 pg.
21
2
1/12/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article from The Christian
Science Monitor entitled, "How Political
Writers See 1972: Nixon Leading All
Democrats." 1 pg.
21
2
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article from The Christian
Science Monitor entitled, "Nixon Leading
All Democrats." 1 pg.
21
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes that provide statistical
information on Nixon's popularity in
comparison to McGoverns. 1 pg.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Page 4 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
21
2
10/2/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Time Magazine article entitled, "Nixon
Moves Out to an Astonishing Lead." 1 pg.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Page 5 of 5
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
November 4, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
Per your request, enclosed are my thoughts
regarding the President's posture during
the campaign.
Enclosure
MAGRUDER
It has generally been agreed that during the 1972 campaign, the
President should capitalize on his incumbency and travel the "nigh
road" in his communications and exposure to the voters. There is,
however, a danger of carrying that strategy so far that the Presi-
dent is perceived as being too far above the campaign and, in effect,
asking the voters to draft him for a second term. We must find the
proper balance between projecting an image of presidential incumbency,
competence and statesmanship, while at the same time transmitting the
President's genuine desire to have a second term to complete the
initiatives which he has begun.
The Degree of Presidential Involvement
Decisions regarding campaign strategy and particularly the
President's role should be made on these assumptions:
1. That the election will be close. It is extremely
difficult today for a Repbulican president to win an election by
a wide majority no matter how great his competence nor how solid
his record. Therefore, plans must contemplete the necessity of
convincing the last undecided voter and getting the last supporter
out to the polls.
2. The President has his strongest image with the
American people as an incumbent and leader. Recent polls, in the
wake of China the the economy, show a rising response to his
initiatives in handling difficult problems. This trend counters
the consistently declining public approval experienced by JFK and
LBJ at this point in their incumbency.
Those two assumptions set the limits on Presidential involvement.
In the first instance, we cannot assume that the campaign can
be won without his presence. Despite current media emphasis
on Democratic disarray and weakness in opinion surveys, we must
expect their campaign to be strong. One need only recollect
1968, when Humphrey rose from the ashes of an incredible series
of adverse events to achieve almost a dead heat.
In the second case, excessive campaigning may overshadow the
image of incumbency and diminish the President's appeal as a
leader.
-2-
The Presidential Campaign Message
The contents of the President's speeches will be very important
in reinforcing the image of incumbency. His message should be
constructive and statesmanlike, referring to his own accomplish-
ments, his initiatives and his tangible objectives for the coming
four years. He should stay above the fray and dwell to a mini-
mum on criticism of his opponents or opposing points of view. The
tone should be toward the high themes of the Administration: "A Gener-
ation of Peace," "Bring Us Together" and "The Spirit of 76." At/
the same time, he must deal with the "gut" issues to which the voters
can relate in their own particular circumstances. For example, the
reduction in the draft and the move toward the All-Volunteer Army
affects the lives of fathers and sons and brothers and cousins of
countless voters. In the field of economics, the balance of pay-
ments is an important policy issue, but the individual relates
more strongly to the security of his job and the erosion of the
buying power of his paycheck. We must not let the Democrats steal
the march on matters relevant to the man on the street.
The Media
During the course of the campaign, the President will achieve
high visibility in the media because of his incumbency alone.
As has been demonstrated over the last several months, major
policy decisions and events can result in particularly high
visibility and a measurable impact on the electorate. The
upcoming visits to China and Moscow, the continued wind-down of
the Viet Nam war, possible agreements coming out of the current
international negotiations, and other prominent events which may
occur, should have a similar effect in 1972. In the same vein,
our television advertising should be in an informational, news-type
format, not excessively partisan and should reinforce the factors
of incumbency, leadership, competence and specific accomplishments.
The Primaries
Our conduct of the early primaries can determine whether
McCloskey will quickly fade from view, or whether he will be
able to sustain enough momentum to nip at the heels of the
President through the spring.
DETICMINED TO BE AN
THE WHITE HOUSE
ADMINISTRATIVE LIMING
WASHINGTON
E.J. 120 6-102
By EF
3-15-82
CONFIDENTIAL
November 5, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Bob Haldeman
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
HSD
SUBJECT:
Presidential campaign style 1972.
The question of the Presidential campaign style for 1972 depends
in part on our situation at campaign time. Harry Truman pulled
it out with a "give 'em hell" style. However, the underdog, salty
role was best suited for Truman. Eisenhower, the non-politician,
could stay above the fray and maintain the political clout of his
non-political image. FDR, the wily politician, was too busy running
the country to fight with Wilkie or little guys. All these styles
proved to be winners.
The one most applicable to this President seems to be the FDR
style. It fits this President best with today's crises and the
special importance of the President's plans for producing a realistic
and lasting peace and prosperity with limited inflation.
Also, the people seem to want this President to be above politics
as much às possible -- and the old press-created image of being
so politically motivated must be dispelled. This was part of
LBJ's downfall, shifting for himself. Even the enemies realize this
President is a realistic leader bubbling over with expertise and ex-
perience, especially in foreign affairs. The reality of bold leader-
ship is now getting through. Let's keep it that way. People now see
the President as being more concerned with their welfare than his
own -- the political risks of the bold, new ventures. This is the
best politics by far. They should know the President will give up his
job or lose it to pursue courses which he believes will give them and
their children peace, stability, safety, and prosperity.
Previously they had begun to become convinced that the press was
right -- we will shift and straddle for our own political skin. Now
they see it differently. Thus, the rise in popularity.
page 2 - 11/5/71
Mr. Haldeman
We should strive to avoid finger-pointing or political cuteness.
And, we should not appear to be winding up our own Demo-
crat assasins, though this job should be done in the right
fashion.
We have a record and goals to sell. They can be sold -- the
President and the family can be sold, positively.
The President should appear to be reasoned, realistic, dignified,
and also, bold. The material is available to get this across
with surrogates and others speaking across the country -- now,
and then. We still don't get enough of this done.
TV should be used by the President to give his record, his
aims and aspirations for the American people. He does well
on TV now, but he is even better behind closed doors. He comes
through in the Cabinet Room as knowing his business, being as
American as apple pie, and with real sincerity.
The style for 1972 should include moving about the country much
as has been done this year -- getting out with the people but
avoiding crass politics. Isn't this awful coming from me?
The President should wind up with the constructive image of build-
ing a better, more stable America. The other side will be forced
to carp and criticize. And, likely, they will have little of sub-
stance with which to work. So, they'll be destructive, negative,
and assassins by their own actions and words and with some
assistance.
If the President is a President -- cool, calm, reasoned, etc. --
not a grabbing politician in the minds of the public, this will add
to the campaign theme which I feel should be to give the American
people the feeling of security, safety, stability because of this
leader. And, this leader must have this unfinished quest -- for
a realistic and lasting peace and prosperity with limited inflation.
Events could force a Truman style, but not if we can help it. This
style doesn't fit this_ President too well.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
Broder-Johnson Series
You asked that I have Doug Hallett analyze the Broder-Johnson series
that was run last month in the Washington Post. His analysis is
attached. While I have succeeded I think in making Doug much less
abrasive in the last few months as you will see from the attached,
however, I have not in any way restrained his candor; probably
that is all to the good.
In transmitting this to you I hasten to point out that I strongly disagree
with a number of Hallett's observations and with some of his conclu-
sions. As you know, I argued strongly for the day care bill veto.
I also believe that you have established in the last six months a very
strong, clear image with the American people as a forceful, activist,
tough President who will do whatever has to be done for the public
interest.
Moreover, in my opinion, we have done extremely well this year. Hallett
argues that after all of our bombshells we are only two or three points
above where we were a year ago; he overlooks the fact that presidents
normally hit low points during their third year (whereas we have greatly
strengthened our position) and that we had many problems to contend with,
some quite unusual like the Pentagon Papers, Calley, the UN vote, a
sluggish economy and Laos. Yet in the face of all this you greatly
strengthened your hold on the country. What also cannot be measured
in the polls is the intensity of support. I believe this has increased very
significantly this year; that the support has strengthened and deepened
even if the overall numbers have not risen more than a few points.
2.
You perhaps also know from reading previous Hallett memos that he is
not particularly given to understatement.
Having said all that, I do think, however, that he makes some good
points, particularly the need for a more consistent theme in our domestic
approach (not that our issues aren't good; we simply need to tie them
together better), the fact that we often reach for superlatives which is
beginning to be criticized widely, that we tend to underestimate Muskie
and finally, perhaps the most important point of all in Hallett's memo,
we try to appeal to the right with rhetoric and the left with substance
while in fact the left is more impressed with words and the right with
substance.
In an effort to conserve your time I have taken the liberty of underlining
Hallett's memo since it is excessively long.
I should also point out that I think his conclusions are overly simplistic.
Some may have validity, but they by no means represent the magic for
a winning campaign. One of the keys next year in my mind is the culti-
vation of important voting blocs (along with, of course, all of the other
major national initiatives that you are planning); in short, exploiting
the advantages of incumbency. While his memo makes some interesting
points and perhaps some which have validity, it doesn't address the
key strategy issues of 1972.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR: CHARLES W. COLSON
FROM: DOUG HALLETT
Broder's and Johnson's basic points in their series "The Politicians
and the People" are the following:
(1) People are less angry, less passionate, less pessimistic about the
future than they were a year ago. What was analyzed last year as fear about
the future has now turned to apprehension. While two-thirds of the people
surveyed still feel the country is no better off than it was in 1968, there is
less immediate concern about short-run disintegration and collapse.
(2) The President's strength has increased considerably as a by-product of
the China trip, the new economic policy, etc. On the other hand, the Pres-
ident's initiatives have also made him seem more unpredictable, more mys-.
terious, more inconsistent than he did before to many Americans, He is the
first choice of a minority of the electorate. At a time when people are look-
ing for direction and purpose in their leaders, the President remains a remote
and uncertain figure.
(3) There is considerable confusion and indecision about 1972. Never have.
political loyalties and allegiances been weaker. Party structures are almost
meaningless in most areas of the country. People want to vote for the man,
not the party. With the possible exception of the economy, no clear-cut issues
are likely to stand out this election year.
(4) The real issue is the psychological issue of trust and confidence. People
are alienated from their government; they feel powerless; they question
whether their leaders can respond to their fundamental concerns. 60 percent
do not believe their leaders tell them the truth.
(5) The youth vote is likely to be smaller than the vote of the electorate-at-
large and young people are not likely to participate in large numbers in the
political process. While young people are hostile to the President, they will
not have a significant effect on the election.
page 2
(6) Muskie is the only Democratic contender both known to a majority of
the electorate and known positively. Kennedy and Humphrey are better
known, but less liked. While he has potential, however, Muskie has not
yet developed the broad base of support and respect he would need to defeat
the President.
(7) Wallace and Agnew are too controversial to be accepted as leaders.
While many people agree with their statements, they sense they are not
tolerant enough to be President. Wallace and Agnew are too sure of them-
selves.
It is important to note that Broder's and Johnson's conclusions are
based on a distorted sampling of the electorate. They interviewed only 300
people. All pollsters agree that in-depth interviews with only a small samp-
ling permits the interviewers to reinforce their own preconceived notions.
Broder's and Johnson's sample does break down parallel to the 1968 election
results, but it is far from representative. Only one Southern state was in-
cluded in the survey. 26 percent of the sample were new voters and half
of these were college students. These and other distortions have led to con-
clusions at variance with more scientific polls. Whereas polls indicate that
blacks have gained confidence in the system in recent years, for example,
Broder and Johnson assert they are more alienated.
On the other hand, I think the basic theme of the articles the aliena-
tion issue is accurately portrayed. Nothing else could account for the wide
variation between popular support for the President's basic stands and sup-
port for his leadership. Nothing else could account for the President's dom
inance of the issues and his relatively weak showing, both in the trial heats
and in the confidence polls.
The following is my point-by-point analysis:
(1) People are less pessimistic about the future This is true. The cam-
puses have calmed, The doomsday rhetoric has quieted. People are begin-
ning to believe, for the first time, that the war is ending and that the economy
will not fall apart. Such events as the Moscow and Peking trips even show
promise of leading the way to a better future.
Unfortunately, however, the President's success in the areas listed above
is not necessarily translateable into votes at the polls. The President's sup-
port is based on professionalism, not on any personal or psychic or intel-
lectual loyalty. People expect the President to be an effective tactician. In-
versely, if he is not if his professionalism shows any weakness his base
of support is likely to decline. While it will be hard for the Democrats to
page 3
counter if everything is going alright next fall, it one or more of the above
issues have 'gone bad the President may not receive credit for anything he
has done. One weakness in the chain will cast into doubt the long-run via-
bility of every link, leading the way to such questions as: "Why couldn't
we have gotten out of Vietnam faster? Why didn't the President impose wage-
price controls earlier 11
Indeed, the President's successes may even work against him in a curious
sense. In 1968, the President was acceptable to many people to whom he
would not normally be acceptable. People such as Walter Lippman were
for him because they thought we needed a tough, flexible operator to deal with
the kind of problems we had then. Now that the immediate technical prob-
lems have been solved, now that the wounds have been healed to some degree,
we can afford we may need other kinds of leadership. The same peo-
ple who wanted an operational President in 1968 may be looking for a philisophical
one in 1972. They are no longer scared about the present; they are concerned
about the future and they want someone who can help define it for them.
As it stands, the President does not fill the bill.
(2) The President's strength has increased as a result of dramatic new in-
itiatives, but these same initiatives have made him a more remote figure
to many Americans. I don't think there is any question but that the President
has gained as a result of his initiatives and is much better positioned for the
campaign than he was six months ago. What is remarkable is that he has
gained so little, standing now only 2 or 3 points above where he was six
months ago.
In my view, this is our fault. Given the President's public personality
when he entered office, given the over-inflated rhetoric of the sixties, it
is not surprising that people were suspicious of promise and waiting for
performance when the President took office. We recognized this in the first
six months to a year of the administration. In the last two years, however,
we have done virtually everything imaginable to undermine our own credi-
bility and consistency.
In 1969, we were going "forward together. 11 In 1970, we had a "New Fed-
eralism. " By 1971, we had hypoed it up to a "New American Revolution. 11
Who knows what it will be this year? The Second Coming, perhaps?
We show no consistency of effort and commitment. The welfare program
is pronounced the greatest domestic program since the New Deal, but we
expend far more effort trying to place G. Harrold Carswell on the Supreme
Court. We start off with a very exciting and challenging commitment to
page 4
the first five years of life, but denounce day-care (no, middle-class day-
care) as commiting the government to communal living.
Even our major efforts have a tinsely glow to them. The China trip and
the economic policy may be admirable in themselves they are certainly
incredible as they were ballyhooed by us. And all the time we are doing
this, we tell the American people it was the previous administration which
is responsible for overheated rhetoric and expectations and that we are
the ones who are calming things down.
In the short run, of course, there have been benefits from our dodges and
turns and from our Junior Chamber of Commerce boosterism. Maybe Agnew
has even scored once or twice. But in the long run, I think, we have under-
mined the seriousness of the President and his Presidency. It is no wonder
that today we find the public doubting anything we do, seeing in us instability,
when their greatest want greater than any special-interest need is for
just the opposite.
(3) 1972 is uncertain. With the possible exception of the economy, no issue
concern, no political allegiance, no party-loyalty seems likely to dom-
inate. There is opportunity in the disintegration of the nation's institutions
church, family, town, university, union. There is opportunity to reach
and win over large numbers of newly-independent voters. It is not oppor-
tunity of which we have taken the fullest advantage. We have not allowed
ourselves to restructure public dialogue, provide new direction and new
loyalties. While we have solved short-term problems and may benefit from
having done so, we have not added new certainty or direction to the public
mood.
Just the reverse, in fact. We have remained committed to all the folderol
of the past superficial "Presidentialism, 11 Billy Graham home-town re-
ligion, We're no. 1, partisam excess at the same time we do everything
possible to undermine the past's core. Substantively, we have been by-and
large on track (although we are not dealing seriously with the economy, a
problem which is structural not cosmetic). P. R. - wise, we have behaved
as village burghers, testing the wind, dragged into every reform, declining
to identify ourselves with our own concerns, failing to recognize the coher-
ency and broader meaning of our own programs.
Take our non-fiscal justification for vetoing day-care, for instance, In the
days of farms and small villages, having mothers bring children up at home
made sense. Women were intimately involved in the production process of
the farm. Children were able to roam and learn in a broadly educational
environment. But now? Homes are isolated from places of work; staying
page 5
home means staying uninvolved. As for children, staying home means
remaining in a sterile, homogenous suburban heighborhood or an even
more confining urban apartment. Of course we need day-care massive
day-care. Far from committing government to communal living, day-
care means, instead, committing government to preserving some sem-
blance of the community bringing-up process which we have enjoyed for
most of our national history and giving women the same opportunity to feel
productive and useful that their grandmothers had.
On many other issues, we exhibit the same kind of narrow provincialism
even when we are on the right side of the issue. I don't believe people buy
it anymore. Even when it is the best they can articulate, I think they ex-
pect more from their leaders. We have failed to give it to them -- and are,
I think, paying the price.
(4) The real issue is the psychological issue of trust and confidence. I
don't think it is quite as dominant as Broder and Johnson do, but I think it
is much more important that we generally acknowledge. People don't "feel"
the President's leadership except for a few brief moments such as the
China announcements. The strongest, most memorable statements the
President has made while in office have been statements of anger or know-
nothingism or blatant politics; i.e. Carswell defeat, Calley conviction,
Cambodia, vetoing day-care, pornography, abortion. They have not been
devoted to explaining what the President is and what he is trying to do.
This is more than charisma at least charisma in the John Lindsay sense.
It involves finding words and mediums which express the core of the Pres-
ident's character. Lyndon Johnson is not a superficially charismatic man,
yet in his early years, before the war wore him down, his speech and his
actions reflected a personal force that we never get from the President.
Eisenhower could garble every other sentence, but, when you watched him
on television, you knew he was a leader. Even Truman, haberdasher that
he is, was able to express to his constituency a raw cussedness which was
central to his leadership.
Richard Nixon? Man on the make; ashamed of and constantly running away
from his past; manipulator; unsure of his convictions; tactician instead of
strategist; Grand Vizier of all Rotarians, substituting pomposity for elo-
quence. That is the public impression. And that is why he is weak today.
By 50 percent to 40 percent, the American people do not think he has any
broad conceptual framework, any sense of direction or purpose.
In a sense, the nature of leadership is not nearly so important as its fact.
That has been our mistake. We have adopted a pacification strategy, this
page 6
for that group, that for this, with deliberable avoidance of controversial
intellectual and social stands, trying to reassure the left, which cares
everything about words, with substance, trying to reassure the right, which
cares everything about substance, with words. We have ended up alienating
everyone and we will not be able to correct that until we start realizing
that tommorrow's headline is not nearly so important as next fall's "impres-
sion"; that next week's tactical advantage may come at the expense of next
November's strategic victory.
(5) The youth vote is likely to be relatively unimportant in 1972. Broder
and Johnson confirm two of our own opinions: young people are going to vote
less frequently than the rest of the population and they are not going to work
in significant numbers for political candidates. Broder and Johnson are
victims of their own distorted sample on their third point. Their analysis
that young people are far more hostile to the President than the population-
at-large is not born out by the polls. Kennedy has a substantial lead over
the President in the trial heats, but he is the only Democrat who has any
lead among the youth vote.
On the other hand, once the Democrats nominate one man and he has achiev-
ed a visible, stylish identity, he could take the same kind of lead among
youth Kennedy now has. The President's support in this group is thin be-
cause of Vietnam, unemployment, etc.
(6) Muskie is the only Democrat both known to a majority of the electorate
and known positively to it, but does not yet have the strategic advantage over
the President. One of the most disturbing factors in our approach as we
enter the campaign year is our gross underestimation of Muskie. He has
been brilliant, as good as the President was in 1968, and he shows promise
of being far more effective than the President has ever been in the public
phase of his campaign. If he has not yet emerged as the President's equal, he
also does not yet approximate the President's stature as he will as a nom-
inated candidate for President.
People around here counting on a significant fourth party are, I think, crazy,
Muskie is going to do so well in the primaries that no one will join McCarthy
even if he does do it. Without irreparably damaging his right flank, Muskie
has moved far enough left to have the tacit support of somebody like A1 Low-
enstein. Establishment reformers like Gilligan are already in his corner
publicly. The Democrats want to win this year I don't think they're
going to allow themselves to destroy their chances with suicidal splintering.
page 7
Most important of all, Muskie's public image is everything the Pres-
ident's is not: strong, reflective, prudent, even wise. The President
could not maintain early leads against Pat Brown and Hubert Humphrey.
How
in the hell we think he's going to do better against an Ed Muskie
with his usual plastic statesman, say-nothing strategy is beyond me.
(7) Wallace and Agnew are too controversial to be accepted as leaders.
More evidence for the alienation theory. It is not just that Wallace and
Agnew are too strident it is also that they are somehow too facile, too
quick, too simplistic. People know that what they have traditionally be-
lieved -- and what Agnew and Wallace preach -- is not right anymore;
that it needs replacement; that the society has changed and that their
public leaders must deal with those changes even if they can't.
The lesson of Wallace and Agnew is that people want to be led -- they don't
want to see their leaders mouth the same idiocies they do over a Saturday
night beer. Yet that is exactly what we try to do elevating the idiocies
into wordy, billowy speeches, to be sure -- practically every time the Pres-
ident makes a prepared, public statement.
I would caution, however, that Agnew's unsuitability for the Presidency
does not mean he should be replaced as Vice President. This should be
decided on the basis of comprehensive polling this spring. There are too
many people who say they would vote for the President, but "not that Agnew. "
On the other hand, I would regret very much having Governor Connally on
the ticket, not just because I would hate to seem him close to the White
House, but, more importantly, because he would overshadow and thus
undermine the President. The President was right in his original intent
with Agnew he runs better with nobody.
Conclusion: The same as usual: Not all the foreign trips to all the foreign
capitals in the world are going to help the President unless they are coupled
with a far more serious effort to deal with his very weak relationship with
the American people.
The following steps should be taken:
(1) Get new speechwriters -- this is the most important. This President
has the least experienced, least able group of speechwriters in recent
history. We need guys with clout, who are involved and know a lot about
substance, and who can put stuff together which is coherent, purposeful,
and comprehensive which will have the same effect as the President's
masterful desegregation statement.
page 8
Ideally, we would have guys like Daniel Boorstin, Irving Kristol, Edward
Banfield, and Nathan Glazer. We probably can't get them, but the Pres-
ident ought to speak to Moynihan about it. We need and want people from
that Public Interest - Commentary School and Moynihan would know where
to locate good people whom we could get.
(2) Calm the P.R., stop getting overexcited about each new issue, and in-
still some consistency and follow-through in our P. R. -- political opera-
tion. We should not be aiming at taking advantage of each new issue by it-
self, but at taking advantage of each new issue as it relates to the President's
over-all approach. Above all, avoid the cheap-shot, the head-line hunt, the
simple slogan.
(3) Realize that what is important about the President is that he is the first
President to realize that the hyper-individualistic "We're No. 1"
frontier American philosophy is bankrupt and outdated. The President is
the first President to comprehend that internallyand externally this country
and its people are part of a community structure as such, the President
is the first real conservative President the country has ever had. He has
readjusted both foreign and domestic policy away from twentieth century
liberalism, realizing that an unbriddled committment to individualism in
the modern world is enslaving and destructive; that both Vietnam and the war
on poverty are symbols of its bankruptcy; that real freedom and real indivi-
dualism cannot be conferred from above, but must be worked out organically
within a community structure by community norms hence an incomes-de-
centralization strategy instead of a services strategy in domestic policy,
hence the Nixon Doctrine instead of Wilsonian zealotry in foreign affairs.
This should be the basic theme in every utterance made by this Administra-
tion.
(4). Stop displaying the President as if he had a stick up his ass. Put him in
gutsy, colorful, photographic situations with people. Take him out of air-
planes, hotels, and military reservations and put him in hospitals, police
cars, outdoors, in urban areas, at local union meetings, on tough university
campuses, at Indian reservations, etc. Use the White House more imaginatively.
(5) A more imaginative use of media we shouldn't be afraid to put the
President in conflict situations -- the Rather thing was good insofar as it
went (by far the best of conversations), but we can go farther. Show that
the President can handle both his enemies and the people by putting him in
situations with them. We should also be hitting much more the prestige mags
with prestige pieces. Personally, I thought the President's 1967 Foreign Af-
fairs article was more a travelog than an analysis, but even it has had im-
pact far beyond its immediate readership.
RICHARD WILSON
Nixon Political Skill Is Key to Democratic Hopes
Larry O'Brien comes as
blitz the convention. The Dem-
myth. With all due respect for
steadily dwindled during the
near as anyone since Jim Far-
ocratic organization is not
President Nixon's undoubted
campaign and instead of win-
ley to the old time standards
comfortable with either pros-
political skill, he has an unpar-
ning by 5 million in the popu-
of professionalism in politics.
pect.
alleled record of blowing elec-
lar vote, as he expected, he
O'Brien directed the last three
O'Brien makes an observa-
tions.
came through with a scant
Democratic presidential cam-
tion, however, which is seem-
A brief review of the record
500,000.
paigns, two of them success-
ingly sound politically but is
is convincing on this point. As
The conclusion can be drawn
ful, and the chances are that
not historically astute. Having
President Dwight D. Eisen-
that on a historical basis Nix-
he will direct the next one.
warned his fellow Democrats
hower's annointed successor
on is stronger at the beginning
As Democratic n a al
of the elements of President
and running against a young
of his campaigns than at the
chairman, Lawrence F.
Nixon's strength, O'Brien ad-
Roman Catholic senator, Nix-
end of them. This conclusion is
O'Brien has issued a long and
monishes them to believe no
to entered the campaign of
not marred, either, by the
"candid" year-end appraisal
longer that Nixon will defeat
1960 as a strong favorite. His
1970 congressional campaign
of the bad fix in which the
himself.
campaign fizzled and he was
in which a presidential excess
party of the people finds itself.
On the contrary, it is mainly
defeated, by only a narrrow
of zeal at the end gave Muskie
Candid it is. Also it is slightly
on this possibility that the
margin, to be sure, but in con-
the opening to make himself a
off target in one respect as
Democratic national chairman
trast to the full expectation of
leading contender for the nom-
will here be expounded.
should pin his fondest hopes.
victory he was entitled to in-
ination of 1972 in a single,
Certainly it is candid beyond
Politicians, like everyone else,
dulge in when the campaign
low-key TV appearance re-
belief that a Democratic na-
become hung up on fixed
began.
sponding to Nixon's law-
tional chairman should public-
ideas.
It had been somewhat the
and-order mood.
ly confess that "if the Demo-
The fixed idea about Nixon
same in his race for governor
The hazards of Nixon's cam-
crats are unable to nominate a
is this: He is a consummate
of California, when it was
paigns are thus very real and
strong ticket, Mr. Nixon is
politician, calculating every
widely assumed that he would
it is all the more surprising
likely to win re-election with-
move. He conducts skillfully
defeat an incumbent who had
that those who run them
out difficulty."
contrived campaigns steadily
worn down his welcome. But
should not fully recognize that
This is the trouble, nominat-
advancing stage by stage,
the result was a Nixon defeat.
somewhere along the line they
ing a strong ticket, and every-
marshaling every resource in
In 1968 it almost happened
careen along and sometimes
body knows it. Sen. Edmund S.
planned sequence until the fi-
again. Beginning as an
go off the track.
Muskie of Maine looks more
nal day when all is in order
odds-on favorite in about as
Defining what causes them
and more the likely nominee
and his maximum support
disastrous circumstances for
to do so is very difficult. There
unless Sen. Edward M. Kenne-
pours into the polling places.
the Democrats as could be
is somewhere in this mystery
dy of Massachusetts decides to
Alas for Nixon, this is only a
imagined, Nixon's strength
a lack of perception on the
part of the Nixon campaigners
of what the circumstances
call for. Reliance on contrived
events and rallies is too great
and the timing and tone of TV
1
appearances is sometimes just
a fraction off. An artificial at-
mosphere results and re-
creates the old difficulties
about Nixon's sincerity.
That is a rather feeble at-
tempt to define the trouble.
Perhaps a better way to say it
is that the Nixon campaigns
lack convincing naturalness,
and that is not easily correct-
ed.
In any event, Chairman
O'Brien's best hope lies less in
the strength of the ticket the
Democrats will realistically be
able to field than in another
let-down Nixon campaign.
HE WALL STREET JOURNAL, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 26, 1971
Nixon: a Feeling of Lost Opportunity
By ROBERT L. BARTLEY
publican Party for failing to recognize that it
Even if intellect were lost on the masses at
WASHINGTON-In its first two years the
has a problem in the Democrats' near-total
election-time, it is not lost on elites that wield
Nixon administration sought to conquer its
domination of the academic community. But
huge power between elections. Especially, it's
political and cultural foes; today it seeks to
on this both agree: For whatever reason,
hard to see how the authority of a prevailing
co-opt them. The difference measures the ad-
there is a suspicion of anything more abstract
elite can be displaced except by a competing
ministration's success in channeling the ex-
than narrow programmatic ideas, a failure to
one with its own self-confident counter-argu-
plosive passions of the late 1960s back into
understand that in the long run what counts is
ments. In a way this was the point of Mr.
normal political patterns. But the same dif-
not laws but what people believe.
Moynihan's farewell speech to his Republican
ference measures its failure to establish itself
Take, for example, the Scranton Commis-
friends:
as something more than an electoral acci-
sion. On the issue of campus unrest the lib-
"The people in the nation who take
dent.
eral idealists were at their greatest disadvan-
matters seriously have never been required to
If matters develop as they now stand,
tage; how could they govern society when ob-
take us seriously. Time and again the Presi-
President Nixon will be running for re-elec-
viously they could not govern even a univer-
dent would put forth an oftentimes devastat-
tion on the basis of a breakthrough with Pe-
sity? Within the academic community, in-
ing critique precisely of their performance.
king, summitry with the Russians, heretical
deed, the issue was already making conserva-
But his initial thrusts were rarely followed up
adoption of wage and price controls. The mo-
tive ideas once again respectable, and in fact
with a sustained, reasoned, reliable second
tives behind these policies are not solely polit-
fashionable within a small but distinguished
and third order of advocacy."
ical, but it is more than coincidence that if
circle. A commission of, say, the de-radical-
In a real sense, a President himself is re-
they succeed the President will have left the
ized academics, would have produced a re-
sponsible for staffing that insures effective
Democrats with no place to stand.
port serving the same purpose in the society
follow-up, of course, but in another sense he is
This will be a difficult strategy to beat in
at large.
at the mercy of the social forces that deter-
1972, assuming, again, that the policies work
Instead, the administration appointed a
mine what kind of man is available in his
reasonably well. But it is the strategy of a
commission headed by a patrician of the old
party. Similarly, a politician's use of ideas is
President maneuvering for re-election in a pe-
establishment and laced with just enough rad-
limited by the ideas his intellectual allies
riod of history dominated by his foes. That
icals that their views had to be accommo-
have made available. Those self-conscious
strategy's adoption after the 1970 congres-
dated. The result was that the sensible bulk of
conservatives "suspending" their support of
sional elections reflects the failure of a far
the report was overshadowed by an introduc-
the President ought to ask themselves
more ambitious strategy, using "the social
tory section shaped by the hand of Kenneth
whether the deficiencies of Agnewism reflect
issue" to force an electoral realignment, to
Kenniston, in those pre-Reichian days reign-
a lack of roundness in their own ideas, to
create a new majority party.
ing as the number-one apologist for campus
what extent the President abandons them be-
The ambitious strategy grew up in the na-
unrest. To this the administration of the "si-
cause they have failed him.
tional mood that dominated the 1968 presiden-
lent majority" gave, if scarcely 8 blessing,
tial campaign and many of the battles of the
nonetheless a presidential imprimatur. Moral
A Multi-Party System
administration's first two years. It already
authority is not won or lost by one presiden-
No matter how blame is parceled out, a
grows difficult to recall the true intensity of
tial commission, or course, but this was a
feeling of lost opportunity hangs over the
that,mood. The passions over, say, Attica, are
dramatic instance of a more general failing.
present moment in the Nixon administration.
but a pale memory of those over urban riots,
There is a case to be made about news
Kevin Phillips, who won fame if not favor
campus disruption, mobilizations and morato-
media bias; certainly the instincts and habits
talking about "The Emerging Republican Ma-
riums over Vietnam. There was a period
of the media are one large handicap for the
jority," now tells lecture audiences we are
when the question was nothing less than
administration. But instead of a thoughtful
likely to see the emergence of a permanant
whether democracy would continue to work.
analysis, we have been given clumsy charges
multi-party system. Richard Scammon, his
of conspiracy. There are respectable argu-
Democratic counterpart, agrees precisely.
No Small Accomplishment
ments to be made connecting liberal rhetoric
Any one moment can be misleading, of
It is no small accomplishment that the
and radical excess, but instead we have been
course. Conceivably, with the right Demo-
Nixon administration has guided us, or any-
given what one disgruntled conservative calls
cratic nominee or George Wallace out of the
way muddled us, safely through that difficult
"Murray Chotiner conservatism-you show
race or both, Mr. Nixon could still come up
juncture. And its success in doing so owes not
the rock somebody threw at the President,
with a 1972 victory convincing enough to
merely to "Vietnamization," showing that
but you never make a reasoned case."
carry into the future. Even if he merely co-
change can take place within the system, but
There is definitely a paradox here, for
opts his way to a narrow election, perhaps in
also to "Agnewism," showing that the system
White House aides convincingly describe the
his second term he could build longer-lasting
can after all fight back when challenged. But
President as "hungry" for broad-gauge intel-
support. If against all betting he could end the
though such difficult junctures are the stuff
lectual stimulation. Yet it is also true that he
war with a nation-unifying economic miracle
from which electoral realignment has histori-
and his men shy from sophisticated argu-
in South Vietnam like the one in South Korea,
cally been made, SO far there is absolutely no
ments. They believe that oversimplification is
for example, he might gradually come to be
evidence that the administration will be able
inherent in politics, and that any part of a so-
seen as deserving credit for refuting most of
to translate this success into political gain.
phisticated argument that can be taken out of
the anti-American radicalism. Historically,
One way to start to understand this para-
context will be used against you. The "benign
though, electoral change has more often come
dox is to see that "Agnewism" and "the so-
neglect" phrase in one of Daniel P. Moyhi-
in sudden and painful bursts, like the one just
cial issue" involved questions not of political
han's memos is an example hard to deny.
behind us.
power but of moral authority. In the battles of
Yet sophistication and erudition somehow
So the Nixon administration may prove to
the administration's first two years, this gen-
do win points among the American people;
be an ironical one. It was handed a nation in
eral theme took many specific forms: Do
the intellectual elite is in trouble not because
crisis and gradually restored politics as
anti-Vietnam marchers represent a moral
of them but because it has abandoned them.
usual, only to find that politics as usual re-
elite whose views must be followed regardless
And the ultimate comment on the Vice Presi-
bounds to its own disadvantage. The adminis-
of electoral outcome? To what extent can a
dent's hard-line speeches is in "The Middle
tration may go down in history as one of criti-
President expect the Senate to confirm his Su-
Americans" by psychiatrist Robert Coles. A
cal accomplishment, but one that lacked the
preme Court appointments? Who gets to de-
25-year-old welder told him, "You know, I
vision to parlay accomplishment into political
cide who is to blame for campus disruption?
hate snobs, but you've got to be honest and
capital.
Is Vice President Agnew an anathema or a
ask yourself if that man has what it takes up
true spokesman for the people?
in the head to be President. I don't want a
Mr. Bartley, a member of the Journal's
These are, above all, questions of author-
guy there just because he sounds like me
Washington bureau, contributes editorials
ity, the influence wielded not by those who
shouting my head off over my lunch box."
and other commentary.
have won office but by those who have per-
suaded society they embody superior virtue
-though the particular virtue can be high
birth or roots with the common man, the a-
nointment of God or the efficiency of science,
or
high
learn-
To measure authority, ask to whom a so-
ciety turns by habit for guidance on moral
questions, questions of right and wrong, of
good guys and bad guys.
In this society in recent years, authority
has been the property of the liberal idealists,
centered in the universities and the media,
and powerfully buttressing the Democratic
dominance. The Nixon administration's op-
portunity was that by 1968 this class had dis-
credited itself with a creed about a racist-
imperialist-violent-repressive-sexist America.
There seemed to be no inherent reason that
moral authority could not be grasped by prag-
I
matic conservatives, with roots in the best in-
stincts of the common man and the continuity
of the American tradition.
There was a point when the administration
seemed on the verge of that type of leader-
ship. Though it started to withdraw from Viet-
nam, protests professing a higher morality
built in the streets of Washington. President
Nixon struck back with his speech to the "si-
lent majority" on Nov. 3, 1969, surely one of
the most successful single pieces of political
oratory of our time.
The support for this speech, and for the
closely following ones of Vice President
Agnew, made it clear that the silent majority
was no myth, and that the bulk of society re-
jected the professions of a higher morality.
и
The majority saw the moral issue not as Viet-
0.0
nam, but as whether policy is made in council
[1
or in the streets, and on this issue the protes-
N
ters were clearly wrong and the administra-
tion clearly right.
Somehow, though, the administration
proved unable to follow up on this initial ad-
vantage. The hard-line Agnew rhetoric was
continued so long, and with so little additional
development, that it seemed the administra-
tion-caused as much strife as its opponents.
The administration could make a case that its
foes were unreasonable in the rejection of
Clement Haynsworth Jr. for the Supreme
Court, but the incredibly bad Carswell nomi-
nation made the whole episode seem the ad-
ministration's fault.
An Administrative Failure
In the wake of the Cambodian invasion and
the Kent State tragedy, the administration ap-
pointed the Scranton Commission on Campus
Unrest, and the President's own commission
seemed to say that the liberal idealists were
right after all. The President, unable to sepa-
&
rate the best instincts of the common man
from the other and often more momentary
ones, intervened on behalf of Lieutenant Cal-
p
ley. All in all, this record did not reflect a
7:
consistent, self-confident moral leadership.
-E
Whatever the deficiencies of any other elite,
?
the Nixon administration has failed to estab-
4
lish an aura of authority, not even enough to
b.
persuade its own supporters.
-U
91
In general terms, the administration's mis-
SI
take has been to throw the baby out with the
bath. Conscious of confronting an intellectual
elite, it too often rejected not only snobbery
BT
and utopianism but intellect itself. And this is
07
more than the conclusion of an abstract and
et
idealistic outsider; it is an impressive experi-
uo
ence to talk within weeks to two former mem-
ng
bers of the administration-each a symbol of
878
an opposite ideological pole-and to find them
11
offering the same critique: The administra-
A
tion does not truly understand the power of
I ideas.
u
The two critiques vary not only on what
0 particular ideas should have been followed,
=
U but on who is at fault. One blames the former
I
Э, advance men now surrounding the President
10
ai for refusing to let thought interfere with im-
age-making; the other blames the entire Re-
IO
E
The New York Times
Published every day by The New York Times Company
ADOLPH S. OCHS, Publisher 1896-1935
ARTHUR HAYS SULZBERGER, Publisher 1935-1961
ORVIL) DRYFOOS, Publisher 1961-1963
THAT'S
THE NE NEWS
PRINT
ESTABLISHED
1851
The President in 1971
an
De
It has been a historic year for the United States and
sia
for President Nixon. In economic policy and relations
res
with China, Mr. Nixon has shown himself able to break
ura
away from his own past positions and let the facts
Sov
prevail.
nol-
The chaos in the international money markets forced
lea
the President last August to suspend the convertibility
Sib
of the dollar into gold, but only his own predilection
inv
for surprise and for dramatic gestures impelled him to
of
make a 180-degree turn in domestic economic policy.
av
After years of scorning wage-price guidelines or any
kind of "jawboning" and proclaiming his commitment
to the free play of the market, Mr. Nixon startled the
IV.
nation with his imposition of mandatory controls.
The initial ninety-day freeze was a psychological
wh
necessity to check the inflationary euphoria prevailing
ye
in many sectors of the economy. Thus far, the Admin-
Vi
istration's management of Phase Two controls has gone
pro
better on the price than the wage side, but both parts of
cal
the program hold reasonable promise. Indeed, historians
re
may judge it to be this Administration's most solid suc-
ki
cess on the domestic front during its first three years in
n
office. The biggest question at this stage is whether
c)
labor's dissatisfaction will wreck the tripartite Pay Board
and force institution of an all-public agency to monitor
th
wages as well as prices.
t
Unemployment continues to hover at the unacceptably
d
high figure of 6 per cent. The jobless are the victims of
t
Mr. Nixon's earlier deflationary orthodoxy and of his
f.
refusal to abandon it until after more than two and one-
p
half years of failure.
1
The President's China spectacular has lit up the sky
in foreign affairs. It also revealed that the Nationalist
China lobby was a naked emperor. Instead of evoking
public wrath by his overture to Peking, Mr. Nixon met
with overwhelming general acceptance. But as the sur-
prise wears off and the President's journey to China
draws near, doubts arise about the manner if not the
substance of this diplomatic initiative. The same poten-
tial long-term gains for cooperation and stability could
have been achieved if Mr. Nixon had approached the
problem more publicly and less personally. It was not
necessary to turn this China overture into a brutal sur-
prise for Japan, this country's major ally and trading
partner in the Far East. It was likewise not necessary,
except for domestic political reasons, for Mr. Nixon to
begin the new relationship with a summit meeting in
Peking. Such a meeting entails inevitable risk of mis-
understanding or damaged prestige for the President
while holding forth scant prospect of tangible gain.
The war in Vietnam is a more intimate American
concern than the evolution of relations with China
because American men are still being killed in Vietnam
and American prisoners are still captive there. In 1971,
as in the first two years of his tenure, Mr. Nixon
pursued the will-o'-the-wisp of clear-cut military vic-
tory, contrary to his electoral promise to end the war.
As the year ended, bombs were again being rained on
North Vietnam, more United States pilots were being
lost and the desperate effort to prop up pro-American
regimes in Laos and Cambodia continued. The old, stub-
born, unending violence in this corner of Southeast Asia
provides an odd counterpoint to the President's peace-
making ventures in China.
On other critical foreign issues, the Administration
continued its well-conceived but as yet unrewarding
efforts to find a peace formula in the Middle East and
a limit to the strategic arms duel with Russia. Else-
where, the year's record was much worse. President
Nixon inexplicably managed to turn the India-Pakistan
war into an occasion for deeply and unnecessarily
offending India, a hitherto friendly neutral and the
world's largest democracy.
At home, except for his bold intervention in the
economy, the President has failed to provide leadership.
Urban needs are seriously underfinanced. In racial
affairs, the President has kept his distance from the
black community and rarely spoken out except to
strike politically popular notes against school busing.
From his ill-conceived intervention in the Calley court-
martial to his Christmas Eve commutation of James R.
Hoffa's sentence, Mr. Nixon talked about law and order
but subtly undermined it while crime went up.
He remains secretive, preferring surprise to com-
munication. Whether trying to prevent the publication
of the Pentagon Papers or egging on his Vice President
to attack the press or holding his own news conferences
to a minimum, Mr. Nixon reveals his desire to manipu-
late the press which he fears and distrusts.
As the head of a minority party who has jettisoned
much of the platform on which he once campaigned,
he could solidly establish his leadership only by winning
public confidence on a broad scale for his purposes
and methods. Despite the initiatives and accomplish-
ments of the last year, it cannot be said that President
Nixon has gained that necessary public confidence.
Broader U.S.-Soviet Trade
The recent Kremlin award of a major industrial design
contract to a subsidiary of Pullman, Inc., makes it evident
that Soviet-American tension over the Indian subcon-
tinent has not immediately damaged the outlook for
improved trade relations between the two countries.
Recent progress on this front has been startling. Secre-
tary of Commerce Stans and Soviet Agriculture Minister
Matskevich have exchanged cordial visits in which both
officials warmly expressed their interest in increase
commerce. Moscow has agreed to buy about $150 millic
of American grain; there has been a substantial bart
deal involving the exchange of Soviet metals for Ame
Ican machinery, and the Administration has becor
much freer in granting licenses to American firms wis
ing to export machinery to the Soviet Union.
10
The economies of the two nations complement
Peter
More delays
Lisagor
No old-shoe
in
Hanrahan
role for Henry
WASHINGTON - President Nixon could probably banish
Henry Kissinger back to the Harvard wilderness without
trial possible
regret or passion, and the republic would not go into instant
decline.
By William F. Mooney
part to the conduct of Hat
The Nixon-watchers, however, would construe Kissinger's
return to Cambridge as a potential calamity. Media analysts
and Edmund J. Rooney
han. He had given an exclu
interview, pesenting his
would see it as the beginning of the end of coherence in
The Illinois Supreme Court
sion of the raid, to the Chic
foreign affairs, not to mention novelty and surprise. Talk
ruling that prohibits question-
Tribune, and had also
about conceptual designs, multi-polarity and doctrinal devia-
ing of grand jurors in the
mitted his police officers
tions would subside, and jokes about Metternich as the spir-
Black Panther case does not
portray themselves in a
itual theoretician of Mr. Nixon's diplomacy would wither.
automatically clear the way
enactment of the raid pres
The cunning, schematic guile and theatrical quality of the
for the immediate trial of
ed on WBBM-TV (Channel
President's maneuvers in foreign policy would vanish. In
State's Atty. Edward V. Han-
short, the old razzamatazz would be missing.
rahan.
Sears
THE MAJORITY opinio
Col. Henderson's family rejoices
Hanrahan
the court also found "TI
Attorneys for Hanrahan can
THE FACT OF THE MATTER is that not much would
has been an increasing ten
The family of Col. Oran Henderson gathers around him after his acquittal on charges of
ask for a rehearing before the
after defense attorneys chal-
happen if Kissinger disappeared. But it is a mark of the
cy in criminal cases to
Harvard scholar-strategist's talent for insinuating himself
covering up the My Lai massacre. From left, his daughter Nancy, 12, daughter Ann, 16,
Supreme Court, which has al-
lenged the right of the grand
some person other than the
and wife Lawson. (AP)
ready ruled against him three
jury to return the indictment.
into the center of affairs that heightens the impression he is
fendant, and some issue 0
times in his efforts to dismiss
Sears appealed and the Su-
the White House Rasputin, whose advice is critical and in-
than his guilt."
the indictment charging him
preme Court upheld him June
dispensable.
Justice Walter V. Schad
with conspiracy to obstruct
23.
Perhaps not since Harry Hopkins gallivanted about the
Prepaid health
Study suit
a Democrat, wrote the ma
justice. This would cause a de-
Two months later, on Aug.
ity opinion, in which he
landscape as Franklin D. Roosevelt's multipurpose agent
lay of at least another 21 days.
23, the Supreme Court again
joined by the court's three
has a presidential adviser played as important a role as
Hanrahan also has four mo-
ruled for Sears, and said that
publican members.
Kissinger apparently does. The word, apparently, is used
for illegal
tions to dismiss the indictment
Judge Power could not appoint
They are Chief Justice
advisedly. For nobody has authoritatively defined the Nixon-
pending before Circuit Court
an amicus curiae - friends of
ert C. Underwood and Jus
Kissinger relationship.
care weighed
Judge Philip Romiti in Crimi-
the court - to hold an open
Howard Ryan and Charle
nal Court here.
hearing into defense charges
Davis.
For instance, it is highly doubtful that Kissinger enjoys
track profit
Romiti has set a hearing
that Sears used "undue in-
the intimacy with Mr. Nixon that Hopkins knew with F.D.R.
A minority opinion uphol
Monday, but has given no in-
fluence" on the jury to obtain
Historian James MacGregor Burns wrote that Hopkins "had
A nonprofit corporation has
Services, Dwyer said.
the right of Judge Romi
dication whether he will rule
the indictment.
almost an extrasensory perception of Roosevelt's moods; he
submitted a proposal to state
Participating doctors and
hold public hearings was
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. - Atty.
on Hanrahan's petition that the
HANRAHAN and the other
ten by Justice Joseph
(
knew how to give advice in the form of flattery and flattery
officials for a prepaid medical
hospitals would provide medi-
in the form of advice; he sensed when to press his boss and
Gen. William J. Scott says he
indictment, which also names
services program that the cor-
cal services to Medicaid recipi-
is considering plans to file suit
13 other law officials, be dis-
13 defendants, in seeking dis-
enhersh, and concurred il
when to desist, when to talk and when to listen, when to
poration says could save the
ents in return for the premiums
missal by Romiti of the in-
Justices Daniel P. Ward, a
submit and when to argue. Above all, he had a marked
to seek recovery of any illegal
missed.
state as much as $50 million a
from the state, Dwyer said.
dictment list four technical al-
mer Cook County state's a
ability to plunge directly into the heart of a muddle or mix-
profits which politicians may
year.
The corporation would not
BARNABAS F. Sears, spe-
leged faults. Sears has an-
ney, and by Thomas
up, and then to act. 'Lord Root of the Matter,' Churchill
have made through racetrack
Officials of the corporation,
purchase or own any medical
cial prosecutor who obtained
swered each in length. They
Kluczynski, who, like War
stock received while in public
American Medical Services of
a Chicago Democrat.
facilities or real estate Dwyer
the
real tree. You also get a sturdy 4-legged see stand this
price. For 4 days only, you can save $15.31 exceptional on this great
lovely almost 7-ft. life like balsam. Come in and
an
CHICAGO DAILY NEWS, Saturday-Sunday, Dec. 18-19, 1971
Hard-hat opinions
What's really bugging our middle class
Americans and why they think as they do
By Victor Wilson
hard hat was viewed as head of a family with
is over any strife that affects education,
Newhouse News Service
an annual income of $5,000 to $10,000. This
whether public or private. That's why student
WASHINGTON - Observers of the Ameri-
would include, very roughly, the middle third
protesters usually get short shrift from hard
of American families, or about 70 million per-
hats. The studies indicate hard hats generally
can scene - politicans and others - have
known something is bugging the nation's blue-
sons. In political terms, this would represent
want their children better educated than
about 25 million voters.
themselves, and resent any action which
collar workers since the mid-1960s. But no one
might imperil this.
really knew what.
THE ANALYSTS' findings now are avail-
When the 1968 presidential race began, pol-
able and a lot of people - including politi-
Hard hats aren't likely to become a
Chicago construction workers.
ticians jumped to the conclusion the "hard
cians - may be surpised by some of them.
cohesive force (except as "against" voters)
hats" were angry because of a rise in crime
Here are highlights:
for any cause. They're divided on SO many
issues. Thus, older hard hats favor more So-
"alienated." Says this study:
much of their time and effort.
(with racial overtones), despite attempts at
White hard hats generally favor black
most governmental levels to provide blacks
cial Security and medical insurance; younger
"National legend taught Americans that if
Nevertheless, the studies generally are opti-
progress, especially where they consider it
with more jobs and higher welfare and educa-
ones balk at increased payroll and federal
a man was sober, wise, diligent and a little
mistic about the future. While hard hats are
earned. But they don't want it to affect or
tional standards.
taxes for these.
lucky, he 'had it made.' But many blue-collar
not usually organization joiners, nor active it
threaten their own welfare.
Union hard hats seem to resent wage-price
families perceived that the rules of the game
politics except at election time, they pack
Thus the law-and-order issue was born. But
Contrary to popularly held beliefs, black
controls. Non-union ones generally favor both.
were changed by the anti-poverty efforts,
plenty of "clout" at the ballot box, and know
when election returns were analyzed, it was
discovered that give or take a little, the hard
job gains have not especially threatened the
which gave poor and minority workers a
it. Thus, they'd be unlikely to switch to revo
hats voted about as usual.
hard-hat position. Between 1958 and 1970,
ALL THE STUDY papers are in one vol-
boost up the ladder (presumably) at the ex-
lutionary roads.
black hard hats increased by 700,000, while
ume, published under a Ford grant and titled
pense of blue-collar opportunity."
On the contrary, says one study, "We viev
THEN THE FORD Foundation stepped into
white hard hats increased by 2.5 million.
B1 ue Collar Workers" (McGraw-Hill,
this group as basically conservative, and as
$12.50). The editor was Sar A. Levitan, a re-
THE STUDIES note a "declining respect
piring toward 'success' within the traditiona
the picture, seeking a better fix on what real-
In the lower scale of hard-hat ranks (man-
search professor of economics at George
for craftsmanship" in America, and assert
fabric of society. While others may hope to
ly was biting the hard hats (so named for
ual laborers) resentment about blacks usually
Washington, and director of the manpower
this increases pressure among hard hats to
bring broad transformations to this society
construction workers' helmets). Nineteen so-
flares only if whites come into personal con-
studies center.
move from their current job status to a high-
the blue-collar worker wants to 'make it' it
cial analysts, including public officials, began
tact with black co-workers.
One paper goes back to American begin-
er one. Many see more education as the way
the present system.
digging for facts under guidance of George
A major hard-hat resentment (at all levels)
nings to try to explain why hard hats are
to do this, but are frustrated since jobs take
"His present discontent is partly impa
Washington University's center for manpower
tience with those who threaten (or seem to
policy studies.
It now takes $230 a week to live moderately: see below
what he hopes are stable routes to upwar
While not wholly accepted as.a definition, a
mobility."
LOS Angeles, and a sister cor-
added.
WRIT IS FAR MORE limited than Hopkins'
Scott made the remark at a
grand jury, is expected to
The indictment does not
poration here, National Medi-
THE PROPOSAL was first
again appeal to the Supreme
F.D.R.'s man, he doesn't live in the White
cal Services, say the program
press conference he called Fri-
Court if Romiti rules for Han-
charge any specific crime was
the informality that characterized the Roosevelt-
would not eliminate any medi-
submitted in May to then state
day to announce his filing of
commited during the raid,
rahan.
S. Siders
relationship is missing. There is nothing old-shoe
cal services to recipients.
public aid Director Harold
petitions to run in the March
therefore the conspiracy falls
Nixon, nor about the former professor; the
The indictments charge that
The officials say 600 doctors
Swank, Dwyer said, who asked
21 primary for the Republican
of its own weight. Sears cites a
their putting their feet up on the desk and rapping
and 14 hospitals in Chicago
for further information about
nomination for a second, four-
Hanrahan, a former assistant,
U.S. Court of Appeals ruling
of beer is a fanciful one.
and 12 policemen conspired to
have expressed an interest in
the operation of the program
year term as attorney general.
that conspiracy can exist with-
and its cost.
Scott said he would wait to
obstruct justice.
pledge to
national security affairs, Kissinger has a broad
participating in the program.
out being linked to an actual
The indictments are based
A second time, officials of
file the race stock suit until a
crime.
mandate. He abandoned the role of the
on the conduct of Hanrahan
DUANE DWYER, president
American and National Medi-
court has ruled on a similar
assistant, or gray eminence, when he went sec-
and the others following a raid
Any alleged violations are
stall buses
of American Medical Services,
cal Services met with Edward
suit which asks that the late
to arrange the President's summit with Chi-
Dec. 4, 1969, by his police on a
nullified because the statute of
At the Azores conference between Mr. Nixon
said that, "essentially, under
T. Weaver, the new state pub-
Sec. of State Paul Powell's $3
West Side headquarters of the
limitations expired. Sears said
President Georges Pompidou, Kissinger had
the program, doctors are pre-
lic aid director, and state Sen.
million estate be placed in the
Black Panther party. Two
he beat the 18-month deadline
By Dennis Byrne
alone with the French leader twice, and the as-
paid to keep the patients
Fred Smith (D-Chicago).
state treasury.
Panther leaders were slain in
by 33 days.
healthy."
Dwyer and G. Martin Taylor,
The suit is based on the theo-
A group of middle-class
that they did not spend their time discussing
the raid.
French poetry.
Under the program, a doctor
president of National Medical
ry that Powell used his public
There was an "undue delay
South Siders has warned they
would be compensated out of
Services, were to meet later
office to amass his fortune and
CHIEF JUDGE Joseph A.
from the date of the purported
will "throw their bodies in
emerged as an open spokesman, more or less,
"premium income" paid by
Saturday with state Sen. Cecil
that the state is thus entitled to
Power refused to accept the in-
offense to the date of the return
front of the buses" if the CTA
istration policy, pre-empting the turf usually re-
the state to National Medical
Partee to discuss the proposal.
the money.
dictment and ordered it sealed
of the indictment." Sear con-
begins extended service on S.
the President or his secretary of state. Although
cedes that there were numer-
Yates on Monday.
to remain an anonymous voice, he hasn't tried
ous delays, but attributes
Mrs. Rosalie Oberman, of
Either through vanity or sheer force of intellect,
eadily shed his anonymity, with a vigorous assist
Moderate living
many of these to the conduct
8312 S. Yates, said residents
of Hanrahan and the other de-
are irate decause the CTA's
weary of being put in the position, through
fendants.
decision was made without ad-
of the "background briefing," of serving as an
government's psychology warfare tactics.
It takes
$230 a week
Constitutional rights of the
vance notice and threatens the
defendants were violated be-
residential character of the
KISSINGER WHO ISSUED the veiled "warning"
cause the county grand jury
street from E. 71st to E. 87th
that if they didn't apply some restraint on
was read testimony given be-
streets.
in the war against East Pakistan, the President
By Les Hausner
In October, the latest
budget." The figure proba-
a girl, 8. The father has been
fore a federal grand jury
Meetings this week with CTA
to take another look at his scheduled visit to
month for which figures are
bly is above $17,300 today.
in the labor force for 15 years.
which also looked into the
and city officials were fruit-
May. But the rules he laid down required re-
A Chicago family of four
available, Chicago factory
case. Sears cites federal court
less, according to Mrs. Ober-
needs a gross income of
The budgets differ mainly in
The latest available figures
write it on their own authority, as if they had
workers averaged $161 a
from the Illinois Department
rules permitting such testi-
man. Now the residents hope
out of the White House through some occult pow-
more than $230 a week to
the quality and quantity of
week, or $8,372 a year.
of Employment show that the
mony to be turned over, in
to obtain a court injunction.
own.
maintain what the federal
goods and services purchased.
average weekly salary of a
some instances, to a county
S 0 m e 500 residents have
government considers a
A year ago, a family of
Food accounts for 27.3 per
identity was revealed by a newspaper that de-
"moderate" standard of liv-
four required more than
cent of the family's ex-
factory worker in the Chicago
grand jury. Such procedures
signed a petition against the
$11,600 a year ($225 a week)
areas was $160.69 in October.
were followed here, Sears said.
route, she said.
dismay of others bound by the rules, to play its
ing.
penditures in the lower budget,
many reporters were incensed. Kissinger has
Average take home pay for a
BOTH the rulings by Judge
That's $70 more than the
to live on a moderate scale.
23 per cent in the moderate
SHE SAID the buses would
ssible and useful to newsmen, and the fear was
average weekly paycheck of
and 19.9 per cent in the higher
worker with three dependents
Power were at the arraign-
There are no frills in the
clog Yates and endanger chil-
the few knowledgeable sources in the adminis-
was less than $137.
ment level, but defense attor-
dry up.
a Chicago factory worker.
budget. It does not allow for
budget.
dren.
Here are some average
neys brought up basically the
The U.S. Bureau of Labor
savings or extras such as a
But the bigger the budget,
"And then there's the ele-
singer is not an autonomous figure in the White
weekly gross wages paid vari-
same arguments when the
Statistics last issued a budget
second family automobile.
the higher the percentage paid
ment of people that would
ous groups of workers in Illi-
case was assigned to Romiti
pite the trappings of power worn by him. He is, at
Nor does it allow for deduc-
for housing: 24.4 per cent for
come in on the buses," she
based on figures from
nois in October:
for trial.
doing the President's bidding, with great skill and
spring, 1970. The bureau will
tions for the Illinois state in-
the top budget, 23.4 for the
added. "There would be
Contract construction,
Hanrahan also charged that
wit. If his role as an adviser has taken on aspects
icist, this again is Mr. Nixon's choice.
not issue the annual budget
come tax, which went into
moderate and 20.5 for the low-
there had been an excess of
strangers waiting around for
$284.00.
estimates this year, but cur-
effect in late 1969.
er budget.
the buses.
Manufacturing, $160.69.
pretrial publicity in the case.
tanding sly jests about his unique influence, the
rent figures may be deter-
Last winter, the bureau es-
Medical care uses up 8.1 per
The Supreme Court, in a 4-
"We certainly don't feel a
S in thrall to Kissinger. It is possible that one day
mined by taking into account
timated that a lower stan-
Printing & publishing,
cent of the lower budget, 5.3
to-3 decision Friday, ruled that
need for a bus through here,"
nt might decide to cut him off at the knees, so to
$176.21.
increases in living costs.
dard of living could be main-
per cent of the moderate and
Romiti could not hold an open
she said. "Most of the resi-
hat event, the institutional character of the Presi-
tained for about $7,725, or
just 3.8 per cent of the higher
Trucking & warehousing,
hearing into Hanrahan's
dents here have cars and
d sustain Mr. Nixon, assuming he needed a prop,
THUS, IT IS estimated
about $148 a week.
budget.
$224.92.
charge that Sears used undue
moved here to get away from
ild still pursue his course in Peking and Moscow
that maintaining moderate
Retail trade, $106.00.
influence on the jurors.
buses.
ver else the four winds lure him, lacking only
living standards requires an
A YEAR AGO it took
THE FAMILY used in the
Banking, $120.60.
The High Court also found
"The blacks moving in here
acknowledged talent for rationalizing each fit
annual family income of
$16,800 to maintain what the
survey has a father, 38, a non-
Laundries, $94.59.
that if there had been any ex-
are affluent blacks and have
S the ultimate in presidential wisdom.
$11,960.
bureau calls a "higher level
working mother, a boy, 13, and
Hotels, $89.59.
cess of publicity, it was due in
two, even three, cars."
ult"
coverage of my policy?
include all thos employing one
ing.
to three workers for 20 or more
A.: Only if you have purchased the excess
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even if you have the excess coverage, you
payroll of at least $1.500 in any
will want to keep your uninsured motorist
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You can sue, but your award will be
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to half the first $500 of medical ex-
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and 100 per cent of medical expenses
the excess coverage pays increased expenses
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LOOP, of Carsons
SUM.10-6
your car waiting for a
as he was definitely at fault.
pays for it, as long
a uay for lost services for 5 years be-
insurance, allowing you to make a
to change next NewYear's Day
yond policy. the one year covered in your mandatory
profit on your hospital stay.
taxi operators at approximate-
Showroom
of
ly 5,850.
626-1500
idiot rams his car into the rear of
1215
"So after your medical bills have reached
HARLEM
FOREST
How about passengers in your car? Your
PARK
insurance company pays them the same ben-
efits it paid vou depending on
Survivors benefits payable to the surviving
$500, each additional dollar of medical cost
spouse or children of 85 per cent of lost in-
entitles you to perhaps 90 cents from your
own hospitalization policy
Welcome
72
facilities or real estate, Dwyer
American Medical Services of
dubbed him
stock received while in public
purchase or own any medical
Officials of the corporation,
up, ability and then plunge to act. 'Lord Root of the Matter, Churchill
am
01111
directly
01
CHICAGO DAILY NEWS, Saturday-Sunday, Dec. 18-19, 1971
No-fault
Peoria crash stirs
tumped? Here's how auto insurance plan works
U.S. air taxi quiz
WASHINGTON (UPI) - The
The Chicago and Southern
Camper
lost $1,200 in wages. Your "no-fault" insur-
National Transportation Safety
plane hit a power line 75 feet
Springfield Bureau
ance paid all the medical bills and $600 of lost
Board Friday announced a
above the ground, and plunged
wages.
into a farm field four mies
INGFIELD, 111. - To understand the
special safety investigation of
from the airport.
new modified no-fault auto insurance
If you like, you may sue the faulty driver
the nation's 160 scheduled air
emember these four points:
for your other $600 lost wages, plus $750 for
taxi operators. The probe is a
At the public hearing on the
"pain and suffering" damages.
result of evidence uncovered in
crash, it was shown that two
not really no-fault at all. Your insur-
It works this way. Pain and suffering dam-
the crash of a Chicago and
planes made a total of five
company will still want to know who
missed approaches to the air-
ages are limited to half the first $500 of medi-
Southern air taxi last Oct. 21
esponsible for the accident, and if you
port prior to the attempted
responsible your insurance premium
cal expenses, plus an amount equal to all
during a landing in rain and
landing of the air taxi.
will
go
up.
medical expenses over $500.
fog at Peoria, III. Sixteen per-
sons died in the wreck.
program helps you by guaranteeing
The questions: Will you file suit for this
payment of your medical bills and
$1,350, even though it may take up to five
Safety board Chairman John
your lost income, whether or not you
years to get a court hearing, or will you be
H. Reed said an investigation
AAMED
the accident. At present, if you were
satisfied with the prompt $1,600 you got to
had revealed "a number of
fault in the accident, you might have to
pay your out-of-pocket expenses?
deficiencies involving the safe-
RENTS & SELLS
onths or years to get your money from
Vincent Vaccarello. deputy director of the
ty of air taxi travelers," but
Medical Equipment ONLY
driver's insurance company.
state Department of Insurance, believes
refused to specify them since
people will take their out-of-pocket payments
the investigation is still under
WHEEL CHAIRS
program helps insurance companies
and go home. because "the incentive to sue
way.
Custom Specialists
your right to sue for "pain and
Everest &Jeanine-REHAB
has been removed. We've eliminated the
Reed said details of the in-
damages, the so-called "blood
OXYGEN
Home
No fault Insurance: It will help pay accident costs promptly.
jackpot at the end of the rainbow."
vestigation will be announced
Service
which insurance companies blame
shortly.
high cost of auto insurance.
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS Law Prof. Jef-
ance company eventually will be reimbursed
date, buy additional "no-fault" coverage for a
frey O'Connell, whose own more extensive no-
ACCORDING to the Federal
HOSPITAL BEDS
nothing whatsoever to do with your
by the other driver's insurance company for
premium of from $15 to $24 a year. This COV-
fault plan was killed in a state legislative
Aviation Administration, there
Standard & Elestric
collision, property damage or liabil-
these costs, and his premiums probably will
erage pays, regardless of fault:
are 160 scheduled air taxi op-
12 Styles
committee this year, believes people will con-
urance. You will keep those and "no-
go up.
Medical expenses above the $2,000 covered
tinue to press damage suits "once they have
erators in the United States.
REHABILITATION EQUIPMENT
will be added on top.
in your mandatory no-fault policy.
learned how to use the system."
The agency had no immediate
Maywood
544-3244
If you should be killed (God forbid), your
He says the Illinois plan offers "naked en-
figures on the number of
La Grange
352-3732
THER YOU LIKE IT or not, you and
own policy would pay your medical and fu-
Forest Part
168-3253
85 per cent of lost wages (up to $150 a
couragement to pad medical bills," partly be-
planes used by them but it put
4.5 million auto insurance policyhol-
LOW RATES-PROMPT DELIVERY
neral expenses up to $2,000.
Illinois will have no-fault insurance
week) for five years beyond the one year COV-
cause "no-fault" insurance will pay medical
the total number used by both
scheduled and unscheduled air
AAMED
24-Hour Phone
at no extra cost.
How about damage to your car? That's han-
ered in your mandatory policy.
costs already paid by your own health or hos-
Showroom of
dled exactly the way it is now; the other driv-
pitalization insurance, allowing you to make a
taxi operators at approximate-
626-1500
how "no-fault" will work, let's sup-
$12 a day for lost services for 5 years be-
er's insurande company pays for it, as long
profit on your hospital stay.
ly 5,850.
12155
HARLEM
AVE
FOREST
PARK
sitting in your car waiting for a
yond the one year covered in your mandatory
as he was definitely at fault.
*So after your medical bills have reached
light to change next NewYear's Day
policy.
$500, each additional dollar of medical cost
idiot rams his car into the rear of
How about passengers in your car? Your
Survivors benefits payable to the surviving
entitles you to perhaps 90 cents from your
Welcome '72
insurance company pays them the same ben-
spouse or children of 85 per cent of lost in-
own hospitalization policy plus the right to
efits it paid you depending on medical
SUBSCRIPTION RATES
ON REQUEST
you and your car are pretty well banged
expenses and income loss.
up $100 a IUI up LU 400 weeks.
up, and you end up with $1,000 in medical
The maximum payments under this addi-
damages.
tional protection are $50,000 per injured per-
In any event, if a person can prove that
Enjoy A Glamorous Happy New year
bills and are off your $300-a-week job for four
If you had been at fault in the accident,
weeks.
your insurance company would give you ex-
son and $100,000 per accident. And while the
your faulty driving caused him to sustain per-
Dining Dancing Favors And Fun
actly the same amount of money for medical
mandatory "no-fault" insurance covers ev-
manent disability or disfigurement (or if your
Even though the other driver was clearly at
eryone in your car, this additional protection
accident killed him), he or his heirs can sue
Dinner From 9:00 P.M.
and funeral expenses, lost wages and person-
$30 per person
fault, your own insurance company will pay
covers only members of your immediate fam-
you for unlimited damages. That's why you
al services for nonwage earners. It would also
ily who live in your home.
have to keep your liability insurance.
Breakfast from 2 A.M.
your medical bills (up to $2,000) plus $600 in
$6 Per Person
pay you for the damage to your car if you
lost wages at the rate of $150 for each week
You also need liability insurance to pay for
carry collision insurance.
you're off work. The "no-fault" policy pays 85
BUT LET'S GET BACK to your original ac-
medical expenses incurred by non-Illinois
1300 North Astor Street
Reservations
WH 3-1111 Ext. 203
per cent of lost income up to $150 awe ek for
BUT SUPPOSE IT WAS areally terrible
cident. You had $1,000 of medical bills and
residents ou might injure with your car.
up to 52 weeks.
accident. Suppose you had $15,000 of medical
bills and were off work for five years.
If you are unemployed but, for instance,
stay home and take care of the kids, your
If you were not at fault and had only the
insurance policy would pay you up to $12 a
basic, mandatory "no-fault" coverage you
Illinois gets
day for a year to pay for a housekeeper while
would have to seek the additional payments
you are laid up.
from the other driver's insurance company. If
you were at fault, you would have to pay the
court
OK
REPUBLIC
YOUR INSURANCE company must pay
expenses yourself.
you within 30 days after you get your first
LUMBER MARKET
4 Days Only
bills, or pay you triple damages. Your insur-
But you may, right now or at some future
on hiring
The Homeowners Store!
Save $15.31
Questions, answers on coverage
A federal judge has ruled
that Illinois has complied with
hiring provisions under the
7'
under state's modified program
1971 U.S. Emergency Employ-
Norway Fir
ment Act.
The Illinois State Em-
From Our Springfield Bureau
Q. What if my car is damaged, but I'm not
ployees Union, which repre-
injured? How does "no-fault" work then?
sents 13,500 state employes,
SPRINGFIELD, Ill.Here are some ques-
had filed suit charging that the
tions and answers about Illinois modified no-
A.: It doesn't. "No-fault" applies only to
state failed to give a public
fault auto insurance plan:
personal injury accidents. Property damage
notice of hiring provisions un-
REG. $39.98
accidents will be handled exactly as they are
der the act.
Q: What does no-fault do?
now - though the collision insurance part of
The state received $4.2 mil-
24th
you. policy.
lion in federal funds to hire
A.: It requires your auto insurance com-
pany to pay up to $2,000 medical and funeral
Q.: So I have to keep my collision Insur-
792 persons under the act. Only
ance?
157 had been hired when the
expenses, 85 per cent of lost wages (up to $150
union filed suit Nov. 8.
a week) for 52 weeks, and $12 a day for a
A.: Yes. And you also should keep your
U.S. DISTRICT Court Judge
Easy To Assemble; Easy To Store
year for personal services (such as child
comprehensive fire and theft insurance.
Hubert L. Will, who gave the
care) to you or anyone injured while riding in
Sturdy Construction
Made To Last
your car, regardless of whose faulty driving
Q.: Can I get rid of my lability insurance?
state the green light on hiring
caused the accident.
on Friday, had enjoined the
A.: No. You need it to protect you from big
state when the suit was filed.
Here's a beautiful Norway Fir at an exceptional gre
lawsuits for permanent disability and to pro-
price. For 4 days only, you can save $15.31 on tl
Q.: What do I have to do to get "no-fault"
tect you if you should injure somebody not
The grant ends Julv 1, 1972.
insurance?
when all unused funds must be
lovely 7-ft. life like balsam. Come in and see t
covered by "no-fault" (somebody from anoth-
er state, for instance).
returned to the U.S. govern-
almost real tree. You also get a sturdy 4-legged sta
A.: Nothing. After Jan. 1 you've got it.
ment.
at this low price.
Q.: How much will it cost me?
Q.: Can I get rid of the medical payments
In a related matter, the Illi-
insurance in my auto policy?
noise Bureau of Employment
A.: Nothing beyond the cost of your present
Security said changes in the
See Republic's Complete Christmas Department
policy.
A.: Yes. You may call your agent and ask
state's unemployment compen-
Trees and Trim for Every Home
him to cancel it, because it is included in your
sation act will become effective
Q.: I can't believe my insurance company
new "по fault" policy: He will refund a
is going to give me something for nothing.
portion of your premium. If you do not can-
Jan. 1. 1972, providing jobless
cel it, you will get double medical payments
pay coverage to an additional
A.: Insurance companies hope to provide
if you are injured.
500,000 workers.
this coverage with the money they save
Employers to be covered by
0.: May I cancel the uninsured motorist
the law for the first time will
REPUBLIC LUMBER MARKET
Jessons from FDR
summary
Open campaign as late as possible
use Presidency, not candidary
precede up heavy "non-political activity
Use opening to set up an enemy- then concentration it
compare conditions before electrin to now
identify opportunts party with bad guys
Ignore opponent - don't mention by name
choose own wrapons and timing
make compaign revolve around 2, not his rivel
ignore challenge to debate
Use others to cany the campaign
up. good attachers - Cab, VP
attack
meet opp attachs Lead on w/ counter attack
answer fallufications directly
attach opp. Party record
attach opp. associations
attack conditions pre-election 20. now
avoid specifics re: plans for second term
Use a few major speeches with huge build up
preferelly as take as possible - last 2 weeks
close on a high note- vision of future
but first attack hard.
Cerron in 70, closed on low note after
high level campaign)
Lessons from FDR
1936
set up major enemy + concentrate fine on it
(class theme, symbols of
concentiation on party platform pre convention
concentration on minorities - played special interests
(brought ambossadrs home to compaign)
make compaign revolve around him- not his rival
(never mention opponent by name
effort to court Repullicans
(never suggest Repub voters were his opponent)
late opening of formal compaign -sept 29
before that - non-political impection trips
explained specifies re: failure to meet 1932 pledges
(humanity cons ferst re budget)
made most of contrast in 1936 us 1932
election eve -unrestraiedattuk on opponents
(" we have only just begun to fight")
gave few specifies re: plans for second term
1940
announced complete alsorption in for pol. & defense
no time fn purely political debate
butwill attach falsifications
didn't rise to debate challenge ignored challenger
chose own weapons & timing
used Iches to chop up Willkie & reply to attacks
five major addresses in late Oct - 2 weeks
attached falorifications, atta
attached Repub record
recited admin accomplishments on defense
attached strange bed fellows of Repule
vision of america positive idealistic
heavy Dew campaign -while P. non-pol
played heavily on 1932 us now
VP led attach
1944 opened Sept 23 - great campaign speech Decematers
find drive in late Oct
for pot. address - long NY motorcada
election eve
answered changes - Attoched dirty campaign
Rosevelt
1936
parties divided on issues
R. : exploit class antagonisms
questimed feasability of govt coop wf business
advisors encorraged was on Big Business
wanted mprs, bankers t bus, against him
concentrated fire on symbols of wealth
concentrated pre-cono. on party platform
close attn to drafting - Ordered it short
class theme in acceptance speech
created coalition centered on masses in cities
minorities: Catholic, Jews, nationalities
brought ambassadors home to campaign
Good Neigbor League - to get clergy, social works ek
main appeal to middle class Protestants
importance of Campaign revolve around hein, not reval
never mentioned Landon by name
special effort to court Republicans, used Tekes
never sugg. Repub. voters were his opponents
no compaigning til august
diddo "non-pol" inspection I flooded areas
formal campaign opened Sept 29
stated by hilting change directly re communism
identified his opponenting the privileged few
prob. to square actions w/ 1932 campaign pledges
explained why budget not balanced
humanity came first
main role: prosperity-maker
economic upsurge
signs of returning prosperity unmistakable
even up 8 mill. unemployed
hard evidence country was in the money again
ordered see ag cotton at 124
"secTreas no people laid off
- made most of contrast inus in 1936 - 1932
election eve - unrestained attack on opporents
"Ofcorence we will continue
narove
we have only just begun to fight
success in cities due to attn to ethnic groups
esp. newer immigrants
gave few specifics re: plaus for second term
voters admired his persmality
profited from economic conditions
ratification of Welfare State
Big Govt here to stay.
Roosevelt
1940
in acceptance spach
emplasized would be completely alsorbed by
foreign policy & defense matters
but would campaign under certin arcumstancy
"shall not have time or inclination toengage in
purely political debate"
"but"shall never be loath to call the attention
of the nation to deliberate n unwitting
falisfications offact
did not rise to Willkies challenge to debate
ignored challenger in public
Chose his own weapons, followed his continetable
likes made admin reply to Welkie acceptance speech
with his usual vitiol
P's time in summer consumed wf defense for pol.
tyok some decisive steps as
Toured defense installations - continued There compaign
made no potical ulterances on these occasions
did get publication as C-m-C.
Willhie declined to join frees in bipartuan for pol.
in late Oct Panard 5 political addresses
to reply to those "guilty of "systematic and
deliberate falsification ofthe facts".
(Willhies popularity was rising)
Wilkies increasingly letter attacks on P.re for.pd.
were making strongest impression
Dem. campaign underway while P. being non-potitical
pro P. speakers blistered Repub longl voting record
repeatedly reminded of desparate straits air
which Pfound county in 1933
& of what the New Deal had accomplished
tagged Repub as which of isolation appearement
said aggressor nations hoped for D. defect
Wallace (VP. nom) energy atted much to attack
P. openly entered compaign Oct 23. 1-5 speeches
managed both to reply to Wilhies charges
and to put Reput on the defensive
First: referred to many falifications; replied to two
Referted ingreat detail change New Deal had failed
to bring about econom. recovery
assued no secret treaties
closed: "It is for peace that Idave labored;
and it is for peace that I shall labor all
the days of my life."
Second: blistering attach on Repub record in defense for por
Third: expanded on admin defense accomplis Aments
"Your loys are not going to be sent into any foreign areis
Fourth: hit strange assortment [ Political bedfallers
who have been brought together in Rapul pol. dormitory
alliance ben articure reactionary extreme radiod
Final positive, idealistic note -vision of America
gave campaign unusually vigorous effective Corchasion
Twoleeks blits dominated public attention.
Roosevelt
1944
Pre election global meetings, supert playing 10ac.
raised stature
could not only stay on Tympian heights
many domestisprote
labor -strikes, had to seize railwads
Conge relations -new low, Neb over ride
takes - Congress refused
Repuls attached weakest point of admin
bureaucratic inefficiency + wrongling
FOR terribe organizer X adminis trator
contributed to conflicts by wating a new agency
peachant fr secrecy tencouraging rivabies
(to keep aides honest running have)
tone delf to necauces I govt. org.
messed up because he did notknow any better
P. refused to announce recempr fouth tem
gave Demo chance to org. groundswed compaign
re VP- incredible shifting, lying - vacillation
"his wawilhingness to be unplearantly frank was
notorious among those who knew him well."
gave trip report speech in aug- rambling pedestrian
more of his regular speech writers were with him
opened campaign Sept 23 speech to Teamsters
worked for weeks on speech
greatert campaign speed of his career
masterpiece of political strategy & toctics
delivered conversational chatty style - on net mades
attached Repubs, praised labor
answered changes, defended Fala
gave campaign excitement, stimulated supporters,
angued Dewey + Repubs into wild accusitions
launched final drive in late Oct.
for.pol. address in Brooklyn Oct 21
long motorcade then cold rain - 2 million
final speech in Boston
answered changes re communism
attach Reput whipering campaign
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 27, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR CHARLES W. COLSON
FROM:
W. RICHARD HOWARD
SUBJECT:
Sindlinger
My visit Sunday night to Sindlinger & Co. was very
informative and extremely interesting. His operation
is unique because by listening to the actual interviews
one can better understand what people are really trying
to say. This information is lost in statistical reports.
I heard 25 --- 30 partial or complete interviews over a
4½ hour period Sunday night, and after lengthy discussions
with Al Sindlinger, I can make the following observations:
1. It was clear that an overwhelming majority of people
support the President. However, it was also clear they
could not effectively explain why. When asked why they
planned to vote for the President in November, most gave
only vague responses like, "I think he is doing a good
job". A few mentioned the President's trips to China
and Russia as being positive, but no one could say why.
2. There is great animosity and even fear that McGovern
might be elected. Out of the 25 or so interviews, only
three people strongly endorsed McGovern; two were Blacks
and obviously were voting for McGovern because of their
extreme dislike of the President. The other one identified
himself as a Legislative Aide in Washington, D.C.
3. It was easier for people to describe why they didn't
like McGovern than why they did like the President. Most
responses were lengthy and the themes that came through
were:
2.
a. He switches his position too much,
b. He is too radical and extreme,
C. Everyone knows he can't do what he
is promising, and
d.
(which was most significant and ran
through almost every comment)
He would not be an effective leader.
4. The main responses, even by supporters of the President
when asked what they thought the President was doing wrong
were:
a. He has not done enough about inflation.
Prices have gone up, but wages remain about
the same. Food prices were mentioned in
almost every interview.
b. Jobs and unemployment was a minor theme.
C. The President is not campaigning enough.
There were several comments along this line.
People seem to think they want the President
to get out and campaign more and yet they
would contradict themselves by indicating
they didn't want the President to become a
"politican".
There was a strong implication in a great
number of comments along these lines that
people were getting nervous about the campaign
and because of the extensive amount of
campaigning and advertising by McGovern, they
felt the President should do more publicly
but they didn't know exactly what.
**
3.
5. One other question that seemed particularly significant
was that people were asked, "Do you believe we are living in
a time of change and if so, do you agree that we should have
change or do you disagree?" When asked this question, most
everyone said yes and they agree that changes were needed.
However, when asked the next question; "What changes would
you like to see?" a very large percentage indicated that
they wanted a return of morality and restoration of tranquility
that they all seemed to remember in the distant past.
Throughout the evening, Al Sindlinger and I discussed the
significance of the various responses and conversations and
we came up with the very strong conclusion that:
1. The President should now begin being seen more,
particularly on TV. However, and I underline this
because it is extremely important, the President
should always be seen saying something positive.
He should never appear negative in anyway. This
would mean that the President should not go to
Laredo, Texas and blast the judicial system and
their handling of drug pushers; and he should not
go to New York and issue a statement on terrorism.
It was clear from the interviews that what the American people
are urgently looking for (and many think they have) is a strong
leader. Their concept of a leader is one who gives them a
secure feeling by everything he says and does, as opposed to
someone who continues to point out the problems in the world.
McGovern is producing a negative reaction in people, primarily
because everything he talks about is negative.
The President must now use this campaign to bring into very
clear focus how his activities over the past four years will
positively effect every American. He must be specific and
direct in outlining his goals, not only for the next four
years, but for the future of America. He should also condemn
those who would impugn the dignity of our system. However,
he should do so by making it clear that everyone recognizes
America is not perfect, and we should never cease striving
for perfection. But those who continue to discuss the flaws
in our system as if they were terminal illnesses, are a
discredit to our country.
4.
I emphasize that the President should always be positive
and never appear to be negative and never attack the problems
people already know exist; but instead discuss those specific
goals he hopes to achieve, not only in the next four years
(that phrase is too political) but for the future of America.
The President should ask the American people for the mandate
he believes is necessary in order to accomplish these positive
goals and ideas.
:
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 25, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
Wallace People
I have been very impressed with Charlie Snyder, Wallace's
top man, who sent me the attached letter which Ithought you
might like to read. While it is rambling, he makes two very
interesting points.
The first is the overture now being made to Wallace by McGovern.
This is for real. I don't think there is a chance of their succeeding
but the McGovern people are presenting some very persuasive
arguments.
The second point deals with the campaign theme, and while he
hasn't stated it very well, I think the trust issue is a very
powerful one. Right now we own it. Snyder suggests that we
exploit it, a point with which I concur on the positive side.
THE
CAMPAIGN
September 22, 1972
The Honorable Charles W. Colson
Special Council to President
White House
Washington, D. C. 20500
Dear Chuck:
Paul Johnson, the McGovern coordinator for more than half of
Florida, was in my office Thursday.
Here is what he said:
"I have been over North Florida and Central Florida where
I am the campaign manager for McGovern and I find that the
people are not for McGovern and they are not for Nixon. They
are still for George Wallace. They are waiting for George
Wallace to drop even a feather of a hint as to where they
should go. And that is where they will go."
He came here with a long brief on similarities between
McGovern and Wallace. It was a part of the increasing court-
ship of the campaign by the McGovern forces. They are using
"party man" and "Democratic candidate in 1976" and such other
hoopla to sell the thought that Wallace must annoint the
McGovern-Shriver ticket. There is an "undecided" group among
Wallace people, but it is decidedly more anti-McGovern because
of his supporters than the man or issues. I keep emphasizing
the word "supporters." So, when you say people are against
McGovern, they mean to a much greater degree, that they are
against welfare cheats, queers, amnesty seekers, militants,
hippies, etc. But somehow this supporter image has been
pushed aside. Paul Johnson said "We are having our young
people cut their hair, shave their mustaches, and clean up
to get away from bad supporter image." In line with this,
STAND
FOR
P.O. BOX 1972
TELEPHONE (205) 265-7081
MONTGOMERY, ALABAMA 36103
The Honorable Charles W. Colson
Page 2
the McGovern national organization has attempted to employ as
a speechwriter and consultant one of our campaign people who
has been responsible for the Governor's statements since 1958.
He turned them down because he is loyal to me although the
offer was most attractive.
NOW cometh Ted Kennedy. And in line with this, Morris Dees
has been on the phone almost daily to the man they tried to
employ as a speechwriter. He says the turning point of the
McGovern campaign would be the Wallace endorsement.
None of which is going to happen. Right now, we have a state
that is 99 and 44/100 percent pure Nixon and Alabama straws in
the wind will be a key to what Wallace does or does not do. I
have been keeping him informed of this feeling and it is
cemented at this stage.
Now, I would like to hitchhike mentally with you. In other
words, I want to present some viewpoints that in our intell-
ectual redneckism (as opposed to pointy-headed intellectuals)
might give you and the Nixon organization an insight that I
feel is missing.
We are in touch with all three parties and their supporters.
I believe I have found a key to this campaign that is not
present anywhere else in your organization.
The key word is trust. President Nixon said in his book "Six
Crises" that "in politics, victory is never total."
There is no total victory today. There is too much executi-
vists. Too much over-confidence. Too little impact to the
average citizen.
If I can drop back and punt for a second, McGovern came out
of the Democratic convention scarred to hell and back as a
hippie-loving, abortion-pushing, amnesty-favoring, homosexual
supported liberal. Then he capped this with the Eagleton dis-
aster. He was down and dirty and untouchable by average
citizens.
The Honorable Charles W. Colson
Page 3
Now, I want to make this point
there are liberals and left-
ists but they are few in number and there are conservatives
like the Birchers, etc. but they are Sew in number. The
election is decided by average citizens who are not left,
right or middle of the road. They are political wanderers who
favor a little of the left, a little of the right, and a
little of the middle of the road. Mainly they are concerned
about a job, a three-bedroom house, a car, school, church,
children, maybe a boat, and retirement. They don't know
Bangladesh from an Eskimo, and they have absolutely no con-
cept about what is happening in Vietnam, Korea or Japan and
trade deficit is something for the economists.
They are sold politics by the tube. This is a TV political
year, pure and simple, and that's it. Right now, they have
McGovern, a man they can't stand. But the Democrats are working
on this in reverse. They are trying to destroy Mixon's
popularity by convincing the people that McGovern might be a
man you can't stand but Nixon is a man you can't trust.
So the word is trust. Trust is the key. So Nixon has to sell
trust. Only not trust in Nixon but trust in the people If
you could come up with a theme that Nixon trusts the people.
Nixon trusts America. Nixon trusts freedom. Nixon trusts the
realness of our times. Then you get away from trust in Mixon
and you associate trust with Nixon with trust in America and
trust in the people and everytime that McGovern and his crowd
try to break this trust image, they create an impression that
they don't trust the people, they don't trust America, they
don't trust freedom.
I know how I would have our man present this theme. And I
know how our staff could take this one line and break it off
in the McGovern crowd because they are saying you can't trust
America. In effect, they are still trying to sell the old saw
that "would you buy a used car from Richard Nixon?"
I see this. Others see this. This is what the next 40 days
is all about. The concept must be that trust is the key. The
wheat deal, Watergate, Vietnam, all of this is tied in to breaking
down trust in Nixon but if the Nixon tean can turn this around and
make it appear that this radical crowd is trying to destroy trust
in America, then you have a victory so fantastic that even the polls
you now have would be underestimated.
The Honorable Charles W. Colson
Page 4
This "Now, more than ever" line is great and I like it. I
know it is good. But where are the lines that go with it that
explains why? Why not because Nixon trusts the people and
Nixon trusts America--and that is why he is needed now more
than ever because our times demand trust.
I see things happening across the country that polls won't
reflect. The Democrats are still taking "issue" polls only--
not image polls. They are cracking on the anti-issues in an
attempt to crack trust.
I know the campaign is geared toward the middle of October
but I also know that NOW is the time for action to get the
Nixon campaign moving toward the Average citizen.
The average citzen wants to hear trust. He wants to be re-
assured. Reassured. Reassured. This what it is all about.
These are thoughts for what they are worth.
With kind personal regards, I am
Sincerely,
Charles S. Snider
Executive Director
css/bjc
E WALL STREET JOURNAL, WEI
Thinking
Things
WA
1 an-
Over
its mes
3 en-
"De
Sn the
fine ar
oints.
By VERMONT ROYSTER
ceived
move
Ah, Friends!
SO I ho
that yo
new
Voltaire's exclamation "May God defend
am anx
same
me from my friends; I can defend myself
both pr,
vhich
from my enemies" must strike a responsive
"My
natic
chord in the breast of Richard Nixon.
united
educe
For one of the more amazing things about
the onl
President Nixon's term of office, right up to
urge yo
1 not
and including the present campaign, is the
campaig
each
way his real political enemies haven't been
Peter
nship
able to lay a glove on him while his political
Radio
intro-
supporters keep socking him in the solar
peal, fro
plexus.
now in
total
such
Take the current campaign. Senator Mc-
benefit (
Govern has been firing broadsides at Mr.
east Asia
mary
Nixon all year long, and the whole theme of
ally. The
bably
the Democratic attack is that the country
North V1
prob-
can't stand four more years of President
messages
Nixon. The Senator has swung with every
The obje
ional
issue he could think of: the Vietnam war, un-
here and
it po-
employment, inflation, welfare and busing.
some wai
rities
With what result? So far as the polls show,
A Stand
ords,
none. The President has been leading the Sen-
Neithei
ator by margins of two to one. Even among
their
the youth vote, which was supposed to belong
exploiting
0 do
men for
to McGovern, the President seems ahead.
come a st.
:.
For this result on these issues the Presi-
White Hou
are
dent can reasonably claim the credit himself.
that has d
ted
If he hasn't ended the Vietnam war, he has at
U.S. airme
ing
least defused its political explosiveness with
compounds
ist
his policy of Vietnamization. If he hasn't
With mu
ended inflation, he has reduced it from the
ur-
sion cover:
rates spurred by the policies of the last Dem-
hy
with relative
ocratic administration. His bold moves to-
1r-
tel-as a hir
ward Moscow and Peking have relaxed the
in-
House chan
cold war for the first time in a generation.
'ly
Presidents.
cials insist,
es
Which leaves the Democrats with what is-
loose before
le
sues? Why, the Watergate caper and the sus-
reached.
,nd
picion of scandal in the Russian wheat deal.
In the me
is
And who gave the Democrats those issues?
subject of a
Why, those who profess to be Richard Nixon's
North Vietna
friends.
Le
e
Democratic campaign offices-much less why
o
nally routed 1
-remains a mystery. What is clear is that it
cow, hoping 1
was thought up by somebody who thought he
the men befc
e
was helping Mr. Nixon, and that at least one
wants netwo
of
of those involved had some sort of connection,
messages.
S
however minor, with the Nixon re-election
All this m
campaign. The sheer stupidity of it must
make the President blanch.
Or look at the wheat deal. Mr. Nixon
3
worked long, hard and skillfully to widen trade
relations with the Soviet Union. When he fi-
A
nally arranged for the Russians to buy mil-
lions of bushels of U.S. wheat for many mil-
lions of dollars, he must have thought he had
done a real good job of work for the American
economy and the American farmer. And that
LONDON-
he would surely get a few brownie points.
Norway W
By a close 5:
What he has got, thanks to bungling in the
vote tallied (
Agriculture Department, is the suspicion of
came the fir
hanky-panky. And the suspicions, whether or
new Common
not they are justified, are enough to lose him
been expande
points with a lot of wheat farmers. Some are
irate enough to switch to McGovern.
mark, where I
able climate,
In short, the two good issues his political
Norway is
foes have were handed to them by Richard
out of the E
Nixon's own teammates.
Common Marl
These are the latest examples. They are
of proportion
not, unhappily for the President, the only
nomic potentia
ones. That sort of thing has been happening to
portant EC de
him all through his term of office.
countries wou
His two biggest defeats in Congress were
the Senate rejections of two consecutive Su-
can proceed W
The first r.
preme Court nominations. The merits of
Messrs. Haynsworth and Carswell aside, both
British govern
to the Norwe
proved to have some skeletons in their closets
came as some*
which made them politically vulnerable. The
matter. Parlia
problem was that those the President relied
laws needed f
on to check these things out, didn't. If the fail-
will soon set h
ure to do so with the first one, Haynsworth,
was a slip, the failure with the second one,
any stopping E
Carswell, after that example was a blunder
entry is really
beyond understanding.
pansion is all a
Then there was the ITT affair, involving
To the pres
allegations that the company's contribution to
Germany, Italy
lands were to b
the abortive San Diego convention plans were
mark and Norw
somehow entangled with the Justice Depart-
ment's dropping of antitrust moves against
two opt out, SO
Britain's 55.5
the company. There may have been no rela-
tionship whatever, but apparently nobody
22% of the propo
tion of 255 millio
even saw the lurking booby-trap.
have made only
The conclusion from all this must be that
product of $110
the President has not always been well served
the proposed cor
billion GNP wa
by his subordinates. The puzzle it leaves is
about the choosing of them.
missed. Norway
have accounted f
One paradox here is that Richard Nixon is
probably the most intellectual of any Presi-
munity GNP.
dent since Woodrow Wilson; his remaking of
But Norway's
American foreign policy is only one example
of his capacity for thinking through problems,
for searching out broad principles and for
Nota
applying imaginative solutions. Yet aside
from Henry Kissinger, who among the Presi-
dent's top advisers impress you with the
&
sweep of their minds?
In too many cases their virtues seem to be
chiefly those of loyal henchmen. Every Presi-
Rep. Philip
dent needs such, for they are useful virtues.
speech to the
But fierce loyalty bereft of any broader view
(Mich.) Colleg
breeds the kind of thinking that begins by
While a legi
saying wouldn't it be nice to know what the
ment will not b
3
Democratic strategists are up to, and ends
Control Act of
with the stupidity of Watergate.
by the same V6
Thus every President also needs those who
mously passed
can look beyond the exigencies of the mo-
there were only
ment. It is not enough, for example, for an
The stated
adviser to say that so-and-so will make a
the country 10
e
judge sympathetic to our views and also
according to e>
t
please a certain constituency. When he does
tee, the estin
only that he risks the political attack against
clean water by
which there is no good defense.
trillion just ha
What a President needs most are advisers
tire world's G
able to ask "what kind of minds do we want
So quite of
n
on our courts?" So asking and SO searching,
spending that
e
they are able to give the President advice
clean water b
of
good for more than this day only. They are
objective of tl
more apt then to come up with candidates
100% clean Wi
both better for the judiciary and also more
When a bil
impregnable to political attack.
you are given
Such advisers are not easily found. Yet
In this case
since any man in a responsible position can-
water if you V
not avoid being judged in part by the qualities
lation. But the
of his subordinates, Mr. Nixon must share
or. To believe
some of the responsibility when he acts on
other alternati
"bad advice." Or even when others, acting on
Yet, I talk
their own, take off into the wild blue yonder.
gressmen who
After all, if you run down the list of the
this dilemma.
Cabinet and the White House staff and don't
opinion," the ]
find too many who bowl you over with their
sitting in the P
breadth of intellect, who chose them? The
see who was is
captain of that crashed merchant ship off
In passing
Cape Hatteras must answer for the actions of
ticians have
the mate on watch.
creditability ii
True, no President can protect himself en-
certain amour
tirely from gaffes, blunders and scandals of
minded goals,
those who profess to serve him. At least none
passed laws th
ever has. The federal establishment is too
There is no
big, too many people are involved.
is prepared to
But the moral is one Mr. Nixon might
quences of a
brood upon. It's the same as in that old child-
Can you imag
hood fable: nothing is more dangerous than a
taxes for a bill
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 28, 1972.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
BILL SAFIRE
RE:
Critique of First Campaign Swing
If we were in any sort of contest, the first two days' campaigning
would be cause for alarm.
These were the impressions a normal person would get from the
activities:
1. The President went out to raise money. The huge head-
line in the New York Daily News, no liberal bastion, was "Nixon In
Town To Raise Funds. 11 Since over 2 million copies of that headline
circulated in an area of 15 million people, it can be safely said that
the negative message got across to the greater metropolitan area.
In Washington, the Star headline was "Nixon Raises $7 Million" and
that carried also on radio and TV. On the positive side, the young
people theme at the dinner went well.
The other story in New York, the Statue of Liberty visit,
got good pictures but a bad play. The demonstrators left a bad taste.
What I saw on television was a fairly obvious message from the
President about how patriotic immigrants are -- very political, no
uplift. Looked like a cover to his fundraising appearance.
The meeting with Jewish leaders came across well, with the
"no harsh confrontation" theme predominant.
2. The President was apologizing for not campaigning. That's
for others to say; not like Nixon to apologize the way he did in San
Francisco and made the UP lead.
-2-
3. The President talked spending in San Francisco and holding
down spending in LA. This impression created by Broder story and
headline -- "Nixon Promises Spending, Thrift" - but he influenced a
lot of other writers and broadcasters.
4. The thing wasn't in focus. Other stories dominated --
Kissinger in Paris, the POWs on the way home. Seemed like the
campaign was being conducted in Europe.
Some lessons to be drawn:
1. Fundraising appearances at this stage are a great big mistake;
the dead audience calls for an infusion of yelling kids, and the money
could have been raised with a Presidential film at the dinners. Our fat
cat image grows, and we do not appear to care. Fortunately, the other
side doesn't know how to exploit it without seeming envious.
2. High-intensity, 17-hour campaign days preceded and followed
by relative news calm make our campaign look herky-jerky. We do not
have a stride, nor are we explaining what our campaign rhythm is; as
soon as the poll difference begins to narrow, this kind of sporadic
campaigning will be interpreted as "Nixon, worried about the latest poll
showing McGovern momentum, cast aside his above-the-battle pose
and plunged into
etc."
3. We're not campaigning for anything. The "four more years"
chant is offensive. We know that people vote against, and we should
help them be against McGovern and what he stands for; but the best way
to be "Presidential" -- which is our best attitude -- is to carry a
positive line. Some of this was in the fundraising dinner speech,
especially toward the end, but the only way I know that is because I
asked for a text. "The" speech is not yet with us.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 28, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
President's Trip to New York
and California.
Per your request, my assessment of the trip is that on balance we
neither gained nor lost ground.
On the positive side, there was some excellent footage of the
President with Brennan and his boys, but only on ABC and Metro-
media that I am aware of. (You realize my prejudice; naturally
I would think this is a real plus.)
Also, on the positive side, we may have defused the criticism that
the President is unwilling to campaign. I think there was just a little
bit of this creeping into the press and perhaps the public conscious-
ness; I am not sure of the latter. At least a trip like this enables
us to show that we are not in hiding or that we are not taking the
electorate for granted. The coverage was such that everyone knows
the President was out campaigning this week.
Also on the plus side, we were able to get away with the fund-raising
dinners without having them particularly visible. In other words, we
did enough other things so that the public did not get the impression
that we were just playing to the fat cats.
Finally, on the positive side, some of the crowd shots were good and
the President directing the cameras on to the good guys on Liberty
Island was a plus. Also, again I may be somewhat jaundiced in my
opinions because I enjoyed seeing the President one-up the media.
2.
On the minus side, one line moved out of New York indicating the President
was calling for a Republican Congress. All the pollsters I talk to, along
with my political instincts, tell me that that line is counter-productive.
We ought to be doing nothing that sharpens up the Republican-Democrat
focus. If we do our jobs right, our coattails will bring in a lot of Repub-
lican Congressmen but we mustn't make the issue a Republican Congress.
The polls show that the public want a Democrat Congress.
Also on the negative side, the wires, the New York Times and to a much
lesser extent, TV, made it appear that we were meeting McGovern head
on, that the President was attacking him and defending against the charge
that we should come out more often on the campaign trail. I think it is
imperative that in everything the President says and does, he keeps the
sharp focus on the issues that separate the candidates, but that beyond
that he not get himself into a head-to-head confrontation directly with
McGovern.
Another negative on balance was the speech on Liberty Island. On TV
it looked like a campaign stump speech and in my opinion campaign stump
speeches are losers for us. They take us right off the Presidential
pedestal. In my mind at least the President doesn't even look like the
same person he does when he is shown in the White House or doing
Presidential things. (There was a big difference in the impact of the
President visiting flood stricken families in Wilkes-Barre and standing
on the podium at Mitchellville. The President doesn't always have to
be confined in the White House to remain Presidential. He can be going
out as President to see people and to see how federal aid is working in
an area where there are clear Presidential responsibilities. That's
campaigning as President rather than as a candidate.)
Another negative was the Broder piece today, although it's impact is
probably very minimal. He got us on what appeared to be conflicting
statements. I haven't seen this turn up anywhere else; hence I would
view this one as a one-shot jab by Broder. The point is good, however;
we should be careful on the statements that we drop in the future not to
give them this opening.
Coincidentally, as we got on to the front pages campaigning, McGovern's
campaign went back with the corset ads. Some people may look upon
this as a plus; I don't. I am beginning to agree with Al Capp that the
more campaign-type publicity McGovern and Shriver get, the better.
If we shove them off the front pages, then that is not good.
3.
The demonstration issue fizzled. The press simply will not buy our
line; obviously they don't want to; it would help us. The most we
got out of this was a little play on MacGregor's charges and a little
play on the fact that we were trying to capitalize on demonstrators.
I have a gut feeling that the American people already associate
McGovern with anti-war protesters, and we don't have to spell out
the connection. A hell of a lot of people saw the scene at the Doral.
While I hate to admit defeat, I don't think the press will give us a
decent break on this one. If we continue to try, it could boomerang.
This one makes me sizzle because I think McGovern is so vulnerable,
but I just don't see how to come at it.
The trip further strengthens my conviction that the less campaigning we
have to do the better. I believe that people are bored with politics
this year and that one of George McGovern's biggest liabilities is that
his campaigning has been overexposed. Failing to show up for a vote in
the Senate this week was very damaging to him in my opinion. He
appeared to be putting politics ahead of the business of the country.
The more he does and the less we do it, the better we are.
A final point with respect to the trip: I don't think we can get the President's
whole message across to the people in any kind of campaign format. Pre-
dictably, the press focus on the trip was a great deal more on technique
rather than on substance. The media tends to blur whatever message we
are trying to get across. The President has to talk directly to the
American people by radio or TV and he not only has to ask for their
support, but tell them why they should support him. As to the latter
point, he not only has to frame the issue to put us on the right side and
McGovern on the wrong side, but he must talk about what he proposes to
do in a positive way over the next four years. At some point, this is
going to be very necessary. Right now we are asking people to vote for
us because we stand for X and McGovern stands for Y. X is good; Y is
bad. So far that is fine, but as the campaign grinds on, we have got to
hold out the promise of what we will accomplish for this country, given
another 4 years and then ask the people to give us that chance.
TAB B
TENTATIVE LIST OF STATES TO BE POLLED
Target States - (15)
New York
Texas
special southern,
?
California
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Viginia
Ohio
sample
New Jersey
Florida
wiconsm
Indiana
North Carolina
2
md.
Washington Hopelare
Missouri
ala sty, La, Da
Tennessee
?
Kentucky
Iowa sure
Important Primary States - (5)
Wisconsin
Maryland
Oregon
Nebraska
l
New Hampshire
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, January 12, 1972. Wednesday
How political writers see 1972
Nixon leading all Democrats
Nixon vs. Muskie
MONT
MAINE
ORE
ND
N.H.
MINN.
DAHO
WIS
MASS
CALIF
WYO
S.D
NEV
MICH
CONTE
UTAH
NEB
IOWA
ILL
N.I.
IND
OHIO
COLO
DEL
MD
MO
KAN
ARIZ
By Godfrey Sperling Jr.
NM
National political correspondent
OKLA
TENN
ItXAs
ARK
The Christian Science Monitor
MISS
ALA
GA
Washington
President Nixon would be reelected if the
election were held today, a state-by-state
ALASKA
FLA
survey by the Christian Science Monitor dis-
closes.
HAWAII
Pitted in a two-man race against Sen.
Nixon would win
Edmund S. Muskie of Maine, his strongest
Nixon would lose
possible opponent, Mr. Nixon would win 35
Outcome in doubt
states with 315 electoral votes (270 votes are
Benson
Net drown scale
A Monitor survey
How survey sees electoral map today
needed to be elected). He would lose 10
states and the District of Columbia, and 5 as they see it, of seven possible pairings
might be that he would take a swathe of
would be in doubt.
with Mr. Nixon.
Southern states, as he did in 1968-thus de-
Against Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the
ducting several states from those included
Against other possible opponents, the Nix- writers conclude, Mr. Nixon would win 40
in Mr. Nixon's winning totals in the Monitor
on advantage is even greater. None of the states with 374 electoral votes.
poll.
races included a third contender such as
Against Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, Presi-
In the findings Mr. Nixon, when running
Gov. George C. Wallace of Alabama.
dent Nixon would win 39 states with 421
against Mr. Muskie, would win the follow-
On Aug. 31, 1967, a similar Monitor survey electoral votes.
ing states:
showed the vulnerability of President Lyn- Against Sen. George McGovern, Mr. Nix-
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas,
don B. Johnson to defeat at the hands of on would win 42 states with 455 electoral
California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida,
the possible Republican opponents of that votes.
Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa,
period.
Against Sen. Henry M. Jackson, Mr.
Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi,
The poll consists of the assessment of
Nixon would win 42 states with 469 electoral
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New
Monitor political writers in each of the 50 votes.
Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina,
states plus the District of Columbia.
Against New York Mayor John V. Lind-
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South
say, Mrs Nixon would win 45 states with
Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas,
Their reference points include their con-
460 electoral votes.
Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming.
versations with voters, politicians, and polit-
Against former Sen. Eugene J. McCarthy,
ical observers and state polls.
Mr. Nixon would win 46 states with 501
Opposition strongholds
From this, and their own knowledge of
electoral votes.
Thus, while the President had an average
Against tor Muskie, Mr. Nixon would
the state's political climate, the writers
have made their "calls" on the outcome,
of 50 percent approval of the public for his
lose
tts, Michigan, Minnesota,
performance during 1971, according to the
Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Penn-
Gallyn Poll, the seem to result
sylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia,
in race, state by
Maine: and the District of Columbia.
statent
Should Governor Wallace included
Please turn to Page 3
Nixon leading all Democrats,
Monitor survey indicates
Continued from Page 1
Against Mr. Humphrey,
Vermont, Virginia, Wash-
the
states
Mr.
Nixon
ington, Wisconsin, Wyo-
The
would lose includet.Com
ming, Maine and New
outcome-in-doubt
states in a Nixon-Muskie
necticut, Massachusetts,
Hampshire.
Minnesota, Pennsylvania,
Against Senator Jack-
race: Indiana, Louisiana,
Rhode Island, West Vir-
son, Mr. Nixon would lose
Ohio, Washington, and
ginia, and the District
Arkansas, Massachusetts,
Wisconsin.
of Columbia.
Minnesota, Rhode Island,
"In doubt" states in a
and the District of Colum-
If Mr. Nixon were to
oppose Senator Kennedy,
Nixon Humphrey race:
bia.
New Jersey, North Da-
States in doubt in a Nix-
the President would win
kota, Virginia, and Wash-
on-Jackson race are Geor-
Alabama, Alaska, Ari-
ington.
gia, Louisiana, South Da-
zona, Arkansas, Cali-
Against Senator Mc-
kota, and West Virginia.
fornia, Colorado, Dela-
Govern, Mr. Nixon would
ware, Florida, Georgia,
win Alabama, Alaska, Ari-
Lindsay on ticket
Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, In-
zona, Arkansas, Califor-
Against Mayor Lindsay,
nia, Colorado, Connecti-
President Nixon would
diana, Iowa, Kansas, Ken-
win Alabama, Alaska,
tucky, Louisiana, Mary-
Arizona, Arkansas, Cali-
land, Michigan, Mississip-
fornia, Colorado, Connecti-
pi, Missouri, Montana, Ne-
cut, Delaware, Florida,
braska, Nevada, New
Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho,
Hampshire, New Mexico,
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
cut, Delaware, Florida,
Kansas, Kentucky, Mary-
North Carolina, North Da-
Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho,
land, Michigan, Mississip-
kota, Oklahoma, Oregon,
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,
pi, Missouri, Montana, Ne-
South Carolina, South Da-
Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky,
braska, Nevada, New
kota, Tennessee, Texas,
Louisiana,
Maryland,
Hampshire, New Jersey,
Utah, Vermont, Virginia,
Michigan,
Mississippi,
New Mexico, North Caro-
Wisconsin, Wyoming, and
Missouri, Montana, Ne-
lina, North Dakota, Ohio,
Maine.
braska, Nevada, New Jer-
Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn-
sey, New York, New
Mr. Nixon would lose
sylvania, South Carolina,
Mexico, North Carolina,
these areas to Senator
Oklahoma, Oregon, South
South Dakota, Tennessee,
Kennedy: Connecticut,
Carolina,
Tennessee,
Texas, Utah, Vermont,
Massachusetts, Minnesota,
Texas, Utah, Vermont,
Virginia, Washington, Wis-
New Jersey, New York,
Washington, Wisconsin,
consin, Wyoming, Maine,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Is-
Wyoming, Maine and New
and Louisiana.
land, West Virginia, and
Hampshire.
the District of Columbia.
Against Mayor Lindsay,
States "in, doubt" in a
Against Senator McGov-
Mr. Nixon would lose
Nixon-Kennedy contest:
ern, President Nixon
Massachusetts and the
Ohio and Washington.
would lose Massachusetts,
District of Columbia.
Against Senator Hum-
Minnesota, South Dakota,
States in doubt in a Nix-
phrey, the states Nixon
and the District of
on-Lindsay race are Min-
would win: Alabama,
Columbia.
nesota, New York, Rhode
Alaska, Arizona, Arkan-
Island, and West Virginia
In a McGovern-Nixon
sas, California, Colorado,
contest the states in
McCarthy as foe
Delaware, Florida, Geor-
doubt: North Dakota,
gia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illi-
Pennsylvania, Rhode Is-
Against Eugene Mc.
nois, Indiana, Iowa, Kan-
land, Virginia, and West
Carthy, Mr. Nixon would
sas, Kentucky, Maryland,
Virginia.
win Alabama, Alaska, Ari-
Michigan, Mississippi,
zona, Arkansas, California,
Missouri, Montana, Ne-
Against Senator Jack-
Colorado, Connecticut,
braska, Nevada, New
son, Mr. Nixon would win
Delaware, Florida, Geor-
Hampshire, New Mexico,
Alabama, Alaska, Ari-
gia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illi-
New York, North Caro-
zona, California, Colorado,
nois, Indiana, Iowa, Kan-
lina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Ore-
Connecticut, Delaware,
sas, Kentucky, Maryland,
gon, South Carolinaf Ten-
Florida, Hawaii, Idaho,
Michigan,
Mississippi,
nessee, Texas, UtaH, Ver-
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
Missouri, Montana, Ne-
mont, Wisconsin, Wyo-
Kansas, Kentucky, Mary-
braska, Nevada, New
ming, Maine, and Louisi-
land, Michigan, Missis-
Hampshire, New Jersey,
sippi, Missouri, Montana,
ana.
New Mexico, New York,
Nebraska, Nevada, New
North Carolina, North Da-
Jersey, New Mexico, New
kota, Ohio, Oklahoma,
York, North Carolina,
North Dakota, Ohio, Okla-
homa, Oregon. Pennsyl-
vania, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas, Utah,
Now Under. May
are Super
Nixon solid
47
63
Nicon
16
72
sy
Don't know 37
9
/
53
37
McG now/may cle
12
28
McG solid
16
Likely
N- solid 47
McG 16
2/3 may chg 10
2/3 maychs
8
1/2 DK 4
Y2DK 5
Yy mcGels 3
YLNCG
1
64
37
Worst likely
-10%oolid 42
McGadid 16
-60% Nchg
b
+1/4 DK
2
50
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
NIXON'S
USED CAR
*1972
Chicago
Daily
New
LOT
OFFICE
VIETNAM
WIRE WATERGATE TAPS
UNEMPLOYMENT
"Which candidate are you
most apathetic about?"
"If / didn't see it with my own eyes, I wouldn't believe it."
THE VOTERS
Nixon Moves Out to an Astonishing Lead
AFTER a month of false starts and
with 10% undecided. It was taken Sept.
most serious weaknesses. The war con-
spinning, the McGovern
13-15 by telephone among 1,200 voters.
tinues to be the No. 1 issue among vot-
campaign bandwagon is definitely on
In the past few months, McGovern's
ers, but 64% feel the President is "doing
the move-backward. A new TIME poll
image has slipped badly. During the
everything he can to end it." In the first
conducted by Daniel Yankelovich Inc.
spring primaries, samplings by Yankel-
Yankelovich poll, 47% picked Nixon
between Aug. 25 and Sept. 12 shows
ovich determined that McGovern pro-
as the "real peace candidate" compared
that McGovern's campaign is having a
jected himself as a "strong liberal." It
with 39% for McGovern. This time
negative effect: in several states where
was precisely his firm and often cou-
round, 55% of the voters chose Nixon
he has stumped the hardest, he has lost
rageous stands on controversial issues
and only 30% McGovern, a net loss of
ground; and the issues he has empha-
that set him apart from and above the
17 points in the spread.
sized the most are those that are now
host of other Democratic challengers.
spite of the voters' obvious con-
hurting him more than ever. The poll
Now McGovern is casting a slim and
cern over the economy, McGovern's ef-
finds that Nixon leads McGovern by an
pale shadow. Yankelovich interprets
forts to spell out his own solutions seem
astonishing 39 points-62% to 23%.
McGovern's new image as that of a
to have backfired. Voters in the sample
That is an 11-percentage-point in-
"weak radical." Almost one in three vot-
list the economy as their main concern
crease over the spread Nixon enjoyed
ers now believes McGovern to be rad-
after the war. But in the same breath,
in a TIME/Yankelovich Poll conducted
ical, in spite of the fact that he has soft-
48% say that Nixon has done every-
the previous month. The latest poll was
ened many of his positions. At the same
thing he can to keep prices down. Asked
based on telephone interviews with
time and partly for the same reason,
to choose between the candidates, 52%
2,239 registered voters in 16 key states
three out of four voters, including half
picked Nixon and only 21% McGov-
with a combined total of 332 electoral
of his supporters, agree completely or
ern. Those figures represent a 13-point
votes (270 are needed to win). For Mc-
partly that McGovern is "indecisive."
gain in the spread for Nixon over the
Govern, the figures are almost uniform-
In a country that seems to be growing
previous poll. On which candidate can
ly bleak. However the American elec-
more conservative, the tag "radical" is
best close tax loopholes, McGovern led
torate is sliced, by age or income,
more than ever anathema. Add the im-
Nixon in the previous Yankelovich poll,
occupation or ethnic group, party af-
age of weakness, and the result is a for-
40% to 21%. In the current poll, vot-
filiation or religion, McGovern leads the
mula for overwhelming defeat.
ers astonishingly picked Nixon, 35% to
President only among blacks, Jews and
State by state, issue by issue, cat-
31%, even though the President has yet
college-educated youth. With the excep-
egory by category, the poll shows al-
to spell out his tax reform proposals (see
tion of the Jews and Germans, Nixon
most uniform slippage for McGovern.
THE ECONOMY). McGovern fares no
has held or gained ground in every
Among the more revealing findings:
better on welfare and unemployment.
group and on every major issue. Most
Nixon has pre-empted the Viet
Asked whose welfare proposals most re-
startling of all, the poll shows that a plu-
Nam issue. Last spring the war in Viet
semble their own views, the voters gave
rality of Democratic voters now prefer
Nam seemed to be the linchpin of Mc-
Nixon a 25-point spread over McGov-
Nixon over their party's own candidate
Govern's campaign. So sure was he of
ern. By a margin of 18 points, they
by a margin of 43% to 40%
his support in that area that he sought
judged him better able to provide jobs
In some respects, of course, it is still
to broaden his base and find new is-
for everyone.
early in the campaign, and there is still
sues. But the TIME poll clearly indicates
At the beginning of the campaign,
room for fairly drastic swings in voter
that it is Nixon and not McGovern who
McGovern clearly hoped to draw on a
mood and opinion-and in polls. Mc-
is now winning points on Viet Nam. In
deep well of dissatisfaction and bitter-
Govern's own, released last week,
fact, it appears to be one of Nixon's
ness among American voters-and that
showed Nixon 56%. McGovern 34%,
key strengths and one of McGovern's
may have been his biggest miscalcula-
TIME, OCTOBER 2, 1972
13
THE NATION
tion. To be sure, American voters are
majority of blacks agreed, but a plu-
age points. Making headway in his ef-
angry, but what they seem to be an-
rality of whites (49% to 46%) did not.
fort to overcome his problem with Jews,
griest about are attacks on their coun-
By constantly appealing to people's
he has increased that margin to 20
try. Asked if they were sick and tired
fears and dissatisfactions and demand-
points, presumably a sign that Jews are
of hearing people attack patriotism and
ing change without articulating a lofty
lining up along more classic liberal and
American values, 75% of the voters
vision of his own, McGovern may well
economic issue lines. This seems so be-
sampled, including 59% of McGovern
have alienated many of the people he
cause when it comes to who can deal
sympathizers, responded yes. Asked
was trying to reach.
more fairly with Israel, Jewish voters
their view of the state of the nation,
McGovern has lost his populist
still prefer Nixon 36% to 23%. The
9% said that they thought things were
appeal. One month ago, voters picked
change among black voters is perhaps
going "very well" and 50% said that
McGovern over Nixon 47% to 25%,
the most startling. In the first TIME poll,
things were going "fairly well," show-
as the man most likely to deal fairly
McGovern's lead among blacks was
ing a majority relatively content with
with "the little man." Now those same
73% to 10%. Now it stands at 55% to
the status quo. Those twin moods-sat-
voters give a 2-percentage-point edge
20%, a loss of 28 in the spread.
isfaction with their own life and fear
to Nixon on the same question.
Robin Hood. In spite of McGov-
of those who would change it-surfaced
Although voters believe Nixon is
ern's Robin Hood tax proposals, which
in other responses. Asked whether the
capable of underhandedness to achieve
would hit the rich and benefit the poor,
country "has to change a lot faster," a
re-election, they seem to think him more
he has lost as much ground among the
honest than McGovern. Presented a
lower economic groups as he has among
Supposing the election were held today,
statement saying, "Recent attempts to
wealthier voters. Voters earning less
bug the Democratic headquarters show
than $7,500 now give Nixon a 22%
whom would you vote for, Nixon the
Nixon will stop at nothing to get re-
margin over McGovern, exactly double
Republican or McGovern the Democrat?
elected," 21% agreed fully and 12%
the margin of a month ago. Nixon in-
partly. Yet, asked who "will do more
creased his spread by 15 points among
McGovern
sure
Nixon's
to have an open and trustworthy Ad-
blue-collar workers and 5 points among
Nixon
gain (or
ministration," two voters picked Nixon
union members. Surprisingly, Nixon
Not
loss) over
for every one who chose McGovern.
first poll
stretched his lead further among mid-
Such results seem to fly in the face
dle-income voters ($7,500 to $15,000)
TOTAL
62%
23%
15%
+11
of logic. McGovern the tax reformer is
than among the rich ($15,000 and over),
given no credit for his promise to close
who stand to lose the most from Mc-
California
59
28
13
+9
loopholes. McGovern the peace candi-
Govern's economic policies-possibly
Texas
71
18
11
+14
date is thought less apt to bring peace
because of McGovern's strength among
Michigan
65
21
14
+12
than Nixon, who has failed to do so in
rich but liberal professionals.
Illinois
59
23
18
+3
his first term. McGovern the prairie
For McGovern, the worst news in
Ohio
63
populist is thought less likely to pay at-
23
14
+10
the poll is that Nixon seems to be pull-
tention to the needs of the little man
ing the country to the right, while vot-
Pennsylvania
61
21
18
+18
than Richard Nixon, who a majority of
ers perceive McGovern drifting to the
New York
57
26
17
+14
voters suspect is too close to big busi-
left. At present, three out of four vot-
Other Nine States
62
22
16
+8
ness. These responses suggest that the
ers describe themselves as either con-
voters have turned against McGovern
servative or moderate, and almost the
Republican
93
1
6
+8
for intuitive, seat-of-the-pants reasons
same proportion see Nixon in one of
Democrat
43
40
17
+11
having more to do with personality than
those two stances. Yet they view Mc-
Ind./Other
61
18
21
+6
issues, and that they now rationalize
Govern as going in the other direction,
Male
63
24
13
+7
their choice by giving Nixon the ben-
in spite of all his attempts to stake out
efit of the doubt on issues.
a more nearly middle-of-the-road po-
Female
61
22
17
+13
Yankelovich calls this the "halo ef-
sition. Back in July and August, only
18-24 Total
46
43
11
+8
fect," and believes it colors almost all
22% of the voters called McGovern
18-24 College
40
53
7
+2
the answers related to issues. One month
radical. Now 30% see him as such,
18-24 Non-College
49
34
17
+5
ago, voters claimed, by a margin of 45%
while only 1% of the voters put them-
to 28%, that McGovern would do more
selves in the same category. Rather than
25-49
65
21
14
+10
to see that minorities are treated "fair-
getting in step with the average Amer-
50-64
61
21
18
+3
ly." Now they have neatly flip-flopped
ican voter, McGovern seems further out
65 & Over
65
19
16
+20
on the issues, although nothing concrete
of step than ever.
Blacks
20
55
25
+28
has happened in the campaign to cause
In all probability, the most frustrat-
Catholic
such a change: 42% now see Nixon as
ing finding for McGovern is that the
58
24
18
+10
best able to deal with minorities, V. 31%
majority of voters agree with him that
Protestant
69
18
13
+9
for McGovern. This makes little em-
Nixon should come out of hiding and
Jewish
32
52
16
-13
pirical sense, but for that very reason it
participate in a nationally televised de-
Irish
bodes ill for McGovern. More and
bate. Such a confrontation now seems
66
20
14
+13
more, Nixon is gaining momentum as
as unlikely as those other developments
German
66
19
15
-5
the man who can do no wrong.
the McGovern camp was hoping for
East European
46
33
21
0
The change has affected virtually
-major Republican goofs, the explo-
Italian
68
21
11
+28
every geographic and demographic cat-
sion of the Watergate scandal, an up-
Blue Collar
59
23
18
+15
egory, as the chart on this page shows.
heaval in Viet Nam. There are still six
Thus Nixon has increased his lead in
weeks left, of course-plenty of time
White Collar
69
18
13
+13
every age bracket. For example, one
for something major to happen in this
Prof./Exec.
65
26
9
-1
month ago TIME's poll showed McGov-
already volatile campaign. Polls, it is al-
Under $7,500
52
30
18
+11
ern leading by 5 percentage points
ways necessary to remember, do not
$7,500 to $15,000
63
21
16
+11
among the 18- to 24-year-old voters.
predict, they only describe the voters'
22
12
Now Nixon holds the edge-3 percent-
state of mind at the moment. But if the
Over $15,000
66
+5
age points. Even more ominous, 21%
election were held today, McGovern
Liberal-Radical
33
54
13
+12
of the college youth and 26% of non-
would join those presidential aspirants
Moderate
65
19
16
+13
college youth view McGovern less fa-
buried under the country's historic land-
Conservative
76
13
11
+10
vorably now than a month ago.
slides-Henry Clay, Horace Greeley,
In the first TIME poll, McGovern
Alton Parker, James Cox, Alfred Lan-
led among Jews by a mere 7 percent-
don, and of course Barry Goldwater.
14
TIME, OCTOBER2 1972