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This file contains:
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Pre-Election Survey. Three pages of handwritten notes attached. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
Phone conversation between John Davies and Gordon Strachan concerning Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/4/1972
Article regarding the Gallup Poll. Includes poll methods and a general election report. Handwritten notes attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Interesting points about the Gallup Surveys gathered from a telephone conversation with John Davies. Transcript and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Newsweek Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: An additional disscussion with John Davies summurizing interesting points about the Gallup Surveys. Transcript attached. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/29/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Summary of telephone conversation with John Davies about Gallup Surveys. Transcript attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Telephon conversation with John Davies about the Gallup Polls. Transcript and handwritten notes attached. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
Typed chart of Nixon and McGovern demographics. Handwritten data is attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Dick Howard To: Gordon Strachan RE: Lou Harris Trial Heats. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1972
Gordon Strachan's follow up on availability of Harris poll results. Results and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Surveys. Two phone conversations with John Davies attached. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Special Gallup File. Phone conversation with John Davies and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/30/1972
Results of the trial heat analysis and Gallup Poll. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/1/1972
The Gallup Poll article, "Judging from Experience Since 1930's Nixon's Wide Lead Over McGovern Could Vanish Before Election Day." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/25/1972
Phone transcript between John Davies and Gordon Strachan regarding final results of Gallup Poll. Handwritten notes attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/23/1972
Loose papers regarding elections and McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
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Document identity
localId
26145860
label
WHSF: Contested, 22-1
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145860
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 22-1
description
This file contains:
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Pre-Election Survey. Three pages of handwritten notes attached. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
Phone conversation between John Davies and Gordon Strachan concerning Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/4/1972
Article regarding the Gallup Poll. Includes poll methods and a general election report. Handwritten notes attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Interesting points about the Gallup Surveys gathered from a telephone conversation with John Davies. Transcript and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Newsweek Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: An additional disscussion with John Davies summurizing interesting points about the Gallup Surveys. Transcript attached. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/29/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Summary of telephone conversation with John Davies about Gallup Surveys. Transcript attached. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Telephon conversation with John Davies about the Gallup Polls. Transcript and handwritten notes attached. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
Typed chart of Nixon and McGovern demographics. Handwritten data is attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From: Dick Howard To: Gordon Strachan RE: Lou Harris Trial Heats. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1972
Gordon Strachan's follow up on availability of Harris poll results. Results and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/21/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Surveys. Two phone conversations with John Davies attached. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Gallup Survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/30/1972
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman RE: Special Gallup File. Phone conversation with John Davies and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/30/1972
Results of the trial heat analysis and Gallup Poll. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/1/1972
The Gallup Poll article, "Judging from Experience Since 1930's Nixon's Wide Lead Over McGovern Could Vanish Before Election Day." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/25/1972
Phone transcript between John Davies and Gordon Strachan regarding final results of Gallup Poll. Handwritten notes attached. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/23/1972
Loose papers regarding elections and McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
1
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Gallup Pre-Election Survey. Three pages
of handwritten notes attached. 5 pgs.
22
1
11/4/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Phone conversation between John Davies
and Gordon Strachan concerning Gallup
Survey. 1 pg.
22
1
Campaign
Other Document
Article regarding the Gallup Poll. Includes
poll methods and a general election report.
Handwritten notes attached. 2 pgs.
22
1
10/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Interesting points about the Gallup
Surveys gathered from a telephone
conversation with John Davies. Transcript
and handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Page 1 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
1
10/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Newsweek Gallup Survey. 1 pg.
22
1
10/29/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: An additional disscussion with John
Davies summurizing interesting points about
the Gallup Surveys. Transcript attached. 14
pgs.
22
1
10/23/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Summary of telephone conversation with
John Davies about Gallup Surveys.
Transcript attached. 7 pgs.
22
1
10/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Telephon conversation with John Davies
about the Gallup Polls. Transcript and
handwritten notes attached. 13 pgs.
22
1
Campaign
Other Document
Typed chart of Nixon and McGovern
demographics. Handwritten data is attached.
4 pgs.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Page 2 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
1
9/22/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Dick Howard To: Gordon Strachan
RE: Lou Harris Trial Heats. 2 pgs.
22
1
9/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
Gordon Strachan's follow up on availability
of Harris poll results. Results and
handwritten notes attached. 10 pgs.
22
1
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Gallup Surveys. Two phone
conversations with John Davies attached. 8
pgs.
22
1
9/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Gallup Survey. 1 pg.
22
1
9/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
From: Gordon Strachan To: H.R. Haldeman
RE: Special Gallup File. Phone conversation
with John Davies and handwritten notes
attached. 10 pgs.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Page 3 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
1
10/1/1972
Campaign
Report
Report on results of the trial heat analysis
and Gallup Poll. 4 pgs.
22
1
9/25/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
The Gallup Poll article, "Judging from
Experience Since 1930's Nixon's Wide Lead
Over McGovern Could Vanish Before
Election Day." 1 pg.
22
1
9/23/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Phone transcript between John Davies and
Gordon Strachan regarding final results of
Gallup Poll. Handwritten notes attached. 6
pgs.
22
1
Campaign
Other Document
Loose papers regarding elections and
McGovern. 2 pgs.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Page 4 of 4
AMMINYSYRATIVELY COMPIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MENORANDUM FOR:
No R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Pre-Election Survey
The Gallup Organization conducted a 3,500 person survey
Movember 2-4, completing interviews Saturday at 12 noon.
John Davies called - at 11:30 p.m. Saturday night to
say that the results of the registered with leaners was
64 for the President and 26 for Modovern. Over Saturday
night additional computer xune would be made to determine
likely voters.
On Bunday morning at 9:15 Colson called to ask for the
Gallup results. the said Marris would show a 249 spread.
X reached John Davies through his wife at Gallup. Be
could only talk briefly and said Dr. Gallup had been
working with the likely veter figures and would publish
62 for the President and 38 for Modovern. X told Davies
the Marris lead would be 27 points.
I reached John Davies at his home late Sunday night,
Be reviewed the system Dr. Gallup used in determining
the final figure released to the press.
1) The original registered with leaners Signature
that correspends with the Gallup post-Republican Convention
pell (Aug 24-27) was 62-34-4. Davies allocated the
underidad 2 to the President and 2 to NeGovern to get
64-36.
2) Dr. Gallup on Sunday morning applied a "secret
formula", used since 1948. The formula is based on eight
introductory questions. Davies would not give me the
exact wording but the subjects are: respondent's interest
in the election; whether respendent is registered, where
respondent is registerd, where respendent will vote; how
respondent voted in 1968 and 1964, whether respendent will
vote on paper ballot or by mashine, likeliheed of respondent
to vate in 1972.
- 2 -
3) From the "sboret formula" applied to the eight
questions, Dr. Callup determined that 2,700 of the 3,500
sample were likely voters,
4) Dr. Callup's turnout scale is developed from these
eight questions. Be then projected an 80,000,000+ turnout.
Davies two weeks ago reported that this Callup turnout
projection is histerically accurate.
5) Davies gave his personal projections: 62.20
for the President, giving him every state except Massachusetts
and D.C.
An interesting story on Dr. Gallup from the National Observer
is attached,
GS/jb
Davies
62-38
609
394
Under
8736
64-36
60/40 meG
then tumoat
secret V. non -secret
Senes of 8.7s
ballot.
apout pul
750/750 -secret/non secret
prep. -
4% underidad
- no way 8% would
be underided in this elee
- comment on issues &
hedging
Int in alse
Regis where regis
when vote
vote 68
vote 64
machine paper on
helrely TB corte thistime
over yrs devel a term scale ?st
past perl seven certain out +
then projec termout
80, OCU + turnoret
- the tereen out sample by -tern ow
scale then dropped Pr/64-36
to 62 - 38
Top poets of teen sale - must
like te crote are Rep
lowest see's of then
are Dems
- dey off i where you cut
- bases of past listere
senee 48 - certain #
of ?$, il resp certain
a littles color
way then becomes
2700 of 3500 are
- Hamis # Galleeps - lest
lipcely voters
of both samples -Degeir
will be 63 37.
62 - 38 - liftely agters" " d
past Golleeps regis #/
Wire: headlines- lefreis - the P will bill
receive largest pop vote
mosgin of any Rep
Dares
CA in so (+71 8)
States : me G cany mass + OC RI, mayer
not was
actual Vote for P. 62.1, only il
comp as constant
208-342-6861
1
61+64 - most sensible
Dr Galleys Sr - best Deagler P
range.
to do - stay in office &
negative comments by
don't react to any
me G - no one Pr
comp staff to say anything
in response
- Expects MEG to drop sengers +
lie -lest nerespease
- TP in wire : the apparent
to be reached neitla
peace agres that about
eceped nor heart Rn,
conseremed by comp
rdetere by me G.
H - 61/39
cerrier tomorred
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - November 4, 1972
S - Hi, John.
D - Hi, Gordon, how are you?
S - Good - and yourself?
D - I couldn't quite get to you last night, I'm sorry, but I had a birthday
party for my one year old and I couldn't even move.
S - Understand. No problem at all. What does the schedule look like?
D - It looks like right now as a matter the data is beginning to come in
and we have about 500 of the 4,000 total that are in so far and they'll
be key punching all day until about 6 o'clock tonight and then we'll
have to have time for the computer tabulation and won't be sitting
down over the figure until about 10:30 or 11 o'clock. Which means
that probably some time between 1 and 5 I'll be able to call you.
If that's ok with you.
S - Definitely.
D - If you don't mind being rousted out of the sack.
S - Not at all on this one.
D - I'm big on doing that especially for guys I like. OK, let me have
your number, Gordon, so that I
S - Let's see - we might go out this evening.
D - Why don't you give me a couple.
S - OK. This one is the one you just called. 202-456-1414. Now that's
the White House and I'll instruct the operators to find me and I have
a pageboy and everything, so they'll locate me. The direct line at
home is 202-456-2691. OK?
D - OK, very good. Well you'll hear from me some time - and if it's early
I'll give you a call as early as possible.
S - I'd appreciate that very much.
D - Very fine, Gordon.
S - Look forward to hearing from you.
D - OK.
S - Thanks a lot. Bye.
GALLUP POLL
The 1972 Presidential Race
ELECTION REPORT--FOR RELEASE
MONDAY, NOV. 6, 1972
NOTE TO EDITORS:
The lead for this final election report will
reach you by wire (DPR collect) Sunday after-
noon, November 5. The lead will give final
national percentages, based on interviewing
conducted up to Saturday noon, November 4,
and will include suggested headline copy.
If you fail to receive wire copy by 6:00
p.m. Sunday, EST, or have any questions, tele-
phone any of the following numbers:
Richard Nixon
George McGovern
Area Code (609) 924-9600
Area Code (609) 394-8736
Area Code (609) 466-1216
Interviewing in today's final pre-efec-
strength remained about the same.
the same survey showed the GOP lead-
replacing the recuperating Wallace. re-
surveys. No measuring instrument
the underided vote on an objective
time survey was conducted between
Through mid October, however, Mc-
ing the Democratic party by the smaller
receiving the largest percentage of this
dealing with human behavior is
basis.
Tigraday. November 2 and noon on
Govern did parrow the gap somewhat.
ratio of 55 to 45 per cent as the party
vote.
perfect. Although the problems that
Sa: relay. November 4. Interviewers
If this siep is not talen. the reader
The data through mid-October are
perceived as better able to deal with
arise in every election seem to be sim
tele Proned their results to the Prince-
has no clear way of judging how close
based on registered voters. The latest
the problem uppermost in the mind of
Democratic Defection
ilar to those that have been faced in
TOO, Hearters of the Gallop Poll
a particular poll has come in estimating
and final figure is based upon those reg-
the individual voter.
At Record High
other elections, each contest involves
the vote.
1..0 the Gally Poll's final proclec-
intered voters who are most likely to
Further evidence is seen in the fact
Democratic defection during this
variables and problems of measurement
1,72 electro a.ysis about 3.500
vote using a series of questions design-
that the GOP held a 54 to 16 per cent
year's campaign has been at a record
unique to it And it 15 suggested. there
To obtain A realistic expression of
were interviewed 10 person in
ed to identify those respondents with
high. with the proportion of Democrats
fore. that a margin of error of 3 to 4
voter preferences. the Gathip Poll
margin in the same survey on the hardy
than 320 scritifically selected
the highest lil cliboud of voting.
perenimals of "peace and prosperity"
favoring Nixon ranging between 30
percentage points be taken into ac-
makes use of a "seciet ballot techni-
decrease precincts across the nation.
which have been key issues in virtually
and 40 per cent. One of McGovern's
count in interpreting Gallup Poll find-
que which permits voters to mark their
Here is the trend among registered
chief liabilities with voters has been his
" important 11. bear in mind that
every presidential campaign of this
ings.
own preferences on 2 paper ballot.
voters prior to final servey, with inter-
"credibility." A nationwide Gallup sur-
survey results reflect the division of
viewing dates:
century.
Problem of
Interpreting
vey conducted during the compaign, for
proferences only at the time of the inter-
example. found voters by the ratio of
Turnout
Poll Findings
Trend Since Start
The upturn in the economy during
your me and are not a rediction. i.vents
of Primaries
recent months has contributed to Mc-
5-to-2 saying Nixon is more "sincere"
One of the continuing problems in
to interpret poll findings properly.
expent to the completion of inter-
Other,
Govern's problems. When voters in
and "believable" than McGovern.
election polling is that of turnout. If
readers need to take account of the
at noon Sarurday could ob-
Nixon
McG.
Under.
a recent survey were asked whether
every adult in the nation voted one of
occuracy of the polling organization
y Cy West the vote registered at the
%
%
%
they are better off or worse off financial-
Popular Vote Not
the serious sources of polling error
throughout its history.
ind 51. election day.
Oct. 13-18
59
36
ly than they were a year ago, 31 per
Electoral Vote
5
would be eliminated. Actually less
The average deviation. that is the
Sept. 29-Oct. 9
60
34
6
cent said better off. compared to 17
It is important to bear in mind that
than two-thirds of those of voting age
average am wnt by which final Gallup
Trend Since
Sept. 27-25
61
33
6
per cent who said worse off. The rest
the current strivey findings refer to the
take the trouble to vote in a presidential
Poll figures have differed from the
Conventions
Aug.
26-27
"1
30
6
said either that their situation was the
popular vote, not the electoral vote.
election. To identify those voters who
elections beginning with 1936 has been
In April and early May, follow-
GOP
Convention
same, or were undecided Even among
To report the electoral vote, it would
are most likely to go to the polls. the
2.5 percentage points The average de.
:: is victories in the Wisconsin and
Aug 512
57
31
12
Democratic voters. more said they were
he necessary to conduct individual and
Gallup Poll makes use of a battery of
viation for 11 national elections suree
Massachusetts prio aries. McGovern
Engleton Incident
better off now than a year ago than
full-seale surveys in each of the 50
screening questions These questions
1048 has been 1.6 percentage
July 14.17
said they were worse off.
states of the union.
are designed to ireasure such factors
revied President Nixon by the margin
56
points. The largest deviation was
37
7
as interest in the election. whether or
only to 39 per cent, with 12 per
June 16.19
53
Third Party
istered in 1030 when the poll correctly
37
TO
Election Survey
not a person is registered to vote. and
or undecided.
May 26-29
53
Candidates
pointed to Roosevelt's victory but miss.
34
13
Methods
most importantly the likelihood of his
April 28-May 49
ed the mark by 6.8 percentage points.
39
12
Nixon subsequently gained strength
By inheriting the lion's share of the
The interviewing areas used in the
voting.
The smallest deviation came in the pres-
Race Has Been Closer
Wallace vote, President Nixon has an
during the baterly fought Democratic
survey constitute a probability sample
idential race four years ago. The de-
primary campaign in California and
In Terms of Issues
advantage in the presidential race which
of election precincts. Selection of
Undecided
viation was less than percentage point,
lot McGovern 56 to 37 per cent on the
During the campaign, Gallup Poll
he did not have in the 1968 contest
households and respondents within
Voter
actually 0.5.
eve of the Democratic convention in
issue barometers have pointed to closer
when he ran against Gov. George Wal-
households is not left to the discretion
Another problem faced by polltakers
ned July, McGovern lost strength fol-
election than that indicated by the can-
lace and Sen. Hubert Humphrey.
of interviewers but is controlled by a
in election surveys is the undecided
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
lowing is convention and the Fagleton
didate preference questions.
procedure designed to provide an ob-
voter.
The vote for minor parties this year
All rights reserved. Republication in
If" dent. The GOP convention gave
While Nixon held a wide 59 to 36
is only about one per cent, with John
jective, systematic choice of respondents.
Final figures are always reported by
whole or part strictly prohibited except
Naon a boost, while McGovern's
per cent lead in a mid-October survey,
G. Schmitz, head of the American Party,
Some error is inherent in all sample
the Gallup Poll after having allocated
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
Davies
Data in - 500 of 4000
Key prenching til 6p
computer tal
- 10:30-11 on figure
- Between I and 5p.
Scrul CBS everywhere
Radio Spes -off-not
L - on post election survey
providing concurrence Pr/cm.
- need Questionnaire
Deliverance
Buy nBC at 8:30 on
condit that 9-9:30
not for poli
Hold ABC
if sell 9-9:30 pol.
special
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 30, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies tonight developed several
interesting points:
1) The Gallup Survey Release for Thursday, November 2
will be on the blue collar worker. The headline will be:
"Blue Collar Worker - Key to McGovern's Problems". The
survey will show that the Democratic nominee will receive
a smaller percentage of their vote than at any time since
1956. Still McGovern's rise of 6% in the trial heat poll
is attributable to the drop in the President's support
among manual workers.
2) The Protestant working man favors the President
more than Catholic workers. Similarly, the skilled
workers favor the President by a ratio of 5 to 3.
3) Gallup may not have another release before the
final trial heat due Monday, November 6. If Davies wins
the internal argument at Gallup, the Sunday release will
be on the Ethnic Voter who are strongly supporting the
President.
4) The special Gallup Survey on the Vietnam negotiations
interviewed only 100 people. Davies' conclusions are: The
Democrats already for McGovern believe the agreement was a
political ploy; those supporting the President are overjoyed;
there will be little shift in the vote either for the Presi-
dent or against McGovern; any McGovern "gimmick" on the issue
won't "stick"; there will be a substantial increase in the
President's popularity after the election; the negotiations
may diminish the President's voters' apathy.
A transcript of the conversation is attached.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - Monday, October 30, 1972
D - Can you hang on for one moment while I get out from under a barrage
of children here and I'll go downstairs.
S - No problem.
D - Gordon?
S - Yes.
D - OK. We just sent that release out for Thursday. Let's see,
I've got it right here in front of me - it's very long, but the
headline reads: "Blue Collar Workers -- Key to McGovern's
Problems but His Best Hope for Tuesday". Of course that will
be published in time for the Election. And it starts out by
"The nation's blue collar workers representing 40% of the electorate
are largely responsible for the fact that Senator McGovern trails
Nixon by the current wide margin of 59-36, but the blue collar
group also represents McGovern's best hope for narrowing the gap
in the final days of the campaign." Now I'll sort of synopsize
the rest of it. At this late stage in the race McGovern, as we
say it, is receiving a smaller percentage of the vote with
Manual Workers than any other Democratic candidate since 1936.
Only in '56 did they fail to give the Democratic candidate a
majority. Let's see - we talk about the fluidity of the blue
collar vote - the fact that it's just about the only group can
come back to McGovern if any of them are going to come back.
We say that the fact that he has narrowed the gap slightly by
six points since the start of the campaign has been largely due
to his winning back Manual Workers. We found that in the late-
August survey, Nixon held 63-28 lead over McGovern among Manual
Workers - that's 63-28. And the latest survey his lead is 49-44.
However, it is important to note and we make note of that here,
that while Manual Workers as a whole favor Nixon, certain important
population segments within this group favor McGovern. There is a
major difference, for example, between skilled and unskilled workers.
Of course each group is about half of the Manual Worker total so
it divides pretty evenly and gives us a pretty good sample base.
That sample base, incidentally, is 3,870 registered Manual Workers.
S - Big one.
D - Right. So out of a total of 4,855. Skilled workers are 5 to 3
on Nixon's side. Skilled workers meaning electricians, plumbers,
mechanics and so on, and we explained that the fact many of the
people in this group are in the higher income brackets and in
fact they are now included in the affluent society. We found
2.
D - also that almost 4 in 10 skilled workers have a yearly income of
more than $10,000 which is interesting in itself.
S - Sure.
D - Unskilled workers, on the other hand, prefer McGovern over Nixon
by a fairly wide margin - that's 51-41. Skilled workers are 60-34-6
for Nixon, unskilled 51-41-8.
S - Did you find any particular issues that appeal to the Manual
Workers - is it economic issues, or patriotism or surrender in
Vietnam or any?
D - No, we didn't go into that. But we're getting into some pretty
interesting things here. We're getting some ethnic business here.
A very interesting fact that membership in labor unions has little
influence on their preferences. Those that belong to unions are
no more in favor of McGovern than non-union workers, which I think
is very surprising.
S - So that's the Thursday release?
D - Right. There's some more in here, too. If you have the time?
S - Sure.
D - Protestant manual workers lean heavily to Nixon, whereas Catholics
are about evenly divided between the two Presidential candidates
among the labor union, I mean the blue collar group. Here's
the most interesting part of it. Looking at ethnic background,
Nixon holds a wide lead over McGovern among those manual workers
who trace their ancestry to the old immigrant groups - United
Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), Germany,
Austria, and so on. Among this group, Nixon's lead is particularly
pronounced among the White Anglo-Saxon Protestants, if you may,
and I'll give you those figures. The old immigrant groups
Nixon 69, McGovern 26. The WASP types 72-25, and the Irish 58-34.
The recent immigrant groups, however, are inclined (the Italians,
the Middle-Eastern Europeans) 49-44 for McGovern. However,
Italians are 51-41 for Nixon out of that group, which is rather
interesting.
S - Sure.
D - Here's another interesting finding in this. The trial heat difference
rather markedly by section of the country in which Manual Workers
reside. Nixon holds the lead over McGovern in the East, Midwest,
and South, but in the Western region of the country, California,
and so on, McGovern is preferred over Nixon among this group by a
margin of 48-43%. That about summarizes the 1,000 word report.
S - That's fantastic. So that's the Thursday release? Did you decide
what you're going to do for Sunday?
3.
D - I'm pushing hard for overall ethnic - you know, nationwide.
That and the Manual Worker. The reason we stuck that into the
manual worker story was that it was our feeling that the key
ethnic vote really comes among the blue collar working classes.
You know, it's different to be or to have an "o" at your name
and live in Shaker Heights than it is to live in the Chambersburg
section of Trenton. It's all a matter of what you do and what
your lifestyle is and where you live and we figures we'd key this
to the working class segment of the ethnic population.
S - I see. That could be an interesting - what's the alternative
if you don't go for that one for Sunday?
D - The alternative? Nothing. If we don't go with that one, which
I'm fighting hard for, I fought against putting the ethnics
into this story, but I lost the battle and consequently, by
losing the battle I may have lost a good Sunday report. Frankly,
I wanted to give you this, but I don't frankly think it means a
hell of a lot.
S - Yeah. There's not a lot you can do at this point.
D - No.
S - So this may be the only release - this Thursday one and then
Monday for the trial heat.
D - Could be. Just found out this morning - there won't be any
turnout story.
S - No turnout story?
D - No. We'll have a turnout figure that I'll be able to give you,
but we're not going to put in report form because the newspapers
just don't pick it up, so it's just a waste of time and money
and energy. So we said the hell with it.
S - Yeah, we'd be very interested in that figure.
D - I'll probably have that early. Probably early in the day on
Saturday. What I probably should do with you is you give me
a series of numbers where I can get you at various times of
the day on Saturday, Saturday night, and early Sunday morning.
S - OK.
D - Because I dont want you calling. We'll be up to our elbows in
people.
S - Absolutely.
4.
S - We're in so far, it's a shame to blow it now.
D - I was interested to see the Dwight Chapin business this morning.
S - Oh yeah they': re rehashing the same old crap. Really makes me sick
D - What's his reaction, or haven't you seen him?
S - Oh I see him quite a lot. He's just sick of it. He can't wait
until after the Election and get after the facts.
D - You think it will stop.
S - Well, they'll stop re-printing crap and then Dwight can come out
and express his views. Which he's very anxious to do.
D - And you too I would imagine?
to
S - Exactly. Very discouraging to have just sit and let the crap
get thrown at you. But anyhow.
D - That's about all I can tell you, Gordon.
S - Did you get any results from that Vietnam thing you were doing?
D - Yah. It's really inconclusive. Didn't prove a thing. I don't
know whether it's because we only interviewed a hundred people.
What it showed basically was that the Democrats and those supporting
McGovern all call it a political ploy and the Republicans supporting
Nixon are all overjoyed that the war is about to be over. And there
wasn't much shift which is interesting. I think summing up what
I gather from the report was that 1) it's not going to significantly
help the President in terms of votes, but then again any monkey
business that McGovern wants to put on it, that it's a political
gimmickry or anything like that, isn't going to work either. So
in other words, it's not going to help and it's not going to hurt.
S - That is interesting.
D - It will probably serve to increase the President's overall popularity.
I think if we were to take a poll, which we will be, our questionnaire is
going out the day after the Election, we'll have a Presidential popu-
larity reading on that, I'm sure, we'll probably find that the
President will be riding a rather huge crest of popularity. I would
think that. But it isn't going to translate into switching votes
or increased support. It may - what it may do - and there's no
evidence of this - but I have a feeling that it might - it may
diminish somewhat the apathy that might have existed in the Republican
worker ranks. In other words, it might give Republican workers a
hell of an incentive to get out there and do the job. It's exciting
and it's a culmination of a long policy and it's - it might stir
up rather than deflate their energies.
5.
S - I hope that's the case.
D - One might think that after this Republican workers might say well
now I know it's over. Where we've got it in the bag, let's sit
down. But what I think what it's done is that it has excited
people, particularly Republicans, but the Republicans the ones
that I've spoken to are terribly fired up about this. They now
resent more and more the McGovern tactics.
S - That's right. Sort of a vindication of the policy.
D - Right. So it may keep this - that action to a minimum. That's
the only thing that bothers me about the election.
S - That's interesting. OK. Anything else of note?
D - I can't think of anything.
S - All right.
D - What's going on down there.
S - Oh, not much. Wish it were over.
D - Bet you do.
S - I'm really looking forward to it being over. And have more time
to relax and talk and be a little bit more open about some things.
Well
Looking forward to it.
D - OK, Gordon. Keep in touch.
S - I will indeed. You'll give me a call then.
D - Right. Let's put it this way. Suppose - why don't you make sure
you get in touch with me at some point early evening on Friday.
S - OK.
D - And I will then be able to give you our game plan and exactly the
time that it will be operating and so on.
S - Excellent.
D - OK?
S - Very good.
D - Very good, sir.
S - Thanks a lot.
D - Bye
Operia
Galleep -
* sent release for There -
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key to me G proes
vn
walles- - only in 56, beeil
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* Protes man was forer Rn.
- Ethnic -wide lead over me G
in old immig gros.
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others form MCG.
- To Heat differs by country
E mw f co- Rn lavored
El est meG preferred.
sun - pushing - overall EOne
-Key ethnic vote among live
not just manual wenn
- may pass.
on sun.
collar ethnic vote
no turnout story but will
love signers Per S,
-Sat, early day.
un poll enconclusive
I only 100 people
- the Pems + for MG a
poe play
- Rn + Reps overjoged
- -lettle shift
1
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2
any me G gimmilc
wont stick
- increase P overall pop.
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- But no secter in votes
crest of pop
- may dimish apathy
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Early F in Evening
F
special
Gallup
.) F ield le Peace
2) not
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Expected tomonere night
- 200 people
men evening have results
3) no release sched this we
4 4) meet- tomorrow afternoon
5) no new survey
11/2 -4 :
End 11 a Sat morning
-no - FU's
legin 11/2 evening
11/5- - results off
sun 4am
write wire to newspaper
Sin touch Thurs on Fu
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over last 109rs.
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mon - Final results - no break
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- boile plate on Galleep.
Tues
Rigures Plipped - -pass
on Catholice
hubbell's Thesis.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 28, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Newsweek Gallup Survey
Gallup personally interviewed 2540 registered, likely
voters on October 20-22. The results will be published
in Monday's NEWSWEEK. The trial heat results for the
six state survey are 57-38-4-1. The individual state
results are:
California
16
55-39-3-3
Illinois
2 Y 60-36-4
Michigan
59-34-6-1
New York
17 56-39-5
Ohio
29 61-32-7
Pennsylvania
19
57-38-4-1
CC: Larry Higby
F
THE WHITE HOUSE
Gallup
WASHINGTON
October 29, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies developed several interesting
items:
1. Gallup is conducting a telephone survey on the
impact of the Vietnam settlement. Davies says it
will not be published. However, Davies will give
me the results late Monday, October 30.
2. Davies is meeting on Sunday, October 29 with
George Gallup, Sr. to decide on the release schedule
for the next ten days. Davies expects an analysis of
the manual-worker vote for the President which
dropped precipitously in the last survey. Also,
Gallup will probably release an ethnic study which
will show the President's strong support.
3. The final trial heat survey will be conducted
Thursday, November 2 through Saturday November 4.
The survey will be the key precincts version with
3, 000 interviews. The results will be released Monday,
November 6. Davies will call me Sunday when the
results come off the computer.
4. The Sunday, November 5 story will probably be
on turnout, which historically is Gallup's most
accurate survey.
2
5. There will not be any more releases on
personalities and handling of the issues, nor
will there be any further Gallup releases on
Defense or amnesty.
6. Davies is convinced the corruption issue
is a dry well for McGovern. The first place
its effect would appear would be among the
Democrats supporting the President but the
President's support is firm among 33% of the
Democrats.
7. Davies doubts the Lubbell thesis that the
Vietnam settlement will insure to McGovern's
benefit because now Democrats can vote on
the economic issues. The real thing that
bothers people about McGovern is his "wild
insane economic programs".
8. McGovern has not been able to turn the
corner and generate any momentum. He is
stuck around 40%.
9. Davies will be doing election night analyses
of key precincts in New Jersey and will contact
me with his impressions. He believes the
President is strong in New Jersey and will carry
it with only a slightly smaller majority than the
nation as a whole.
A transcript is attached.
Attachment
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - October 28, 1972
S - John?
D - Yes?
S - Gordon.
D - Hi, Gordon, how are you?
S - OK, yourself?
D - Not too bad.
S - Free for a few minutes?
D - Sure thing.
S - What's coming up?
D - Not too much.
S - Really?
D - No, everything is pretty quiet. We're doing the telephone survey -
I guess it's going right now, as a matter of fact - just a very
limited number of interviews to find out what the impact of this
settlement business is going to be. Not going to be reported
anywhere, but just for our own information, but I'd be happy to
give you the results of that. It's not going to be terribly
conclusive because of the small sample - we're interviewing about
150-200 people for a national sample so there will be some indication
S - Great. When do you expect that back?
D - Tomorrow night.
S - Good. Yes, I'd be very interested.
D - I probably won't know results until Monday evening, but most of
the interviewing will be completed tomorrow night by 11 o'clock
or so at night.
S - I see. By Monday night you'll have the results. Good.
D - Other than that we haven't decided on a release schedule for
this week. We may do a regional analyses and the manual worker,
ethnic vote analysis that I talked to you about earlier. I really
don't know anything at this point. We're meeting tomorrow afternoon
at Gallup, Sr.'s place and that's when the decision will be made.
2.
S - I see. Based on the previous interviewing materials?
D - Right. Nothing new. There will be nothing new until the final
precinct sample.
S - I see. Now, the final sample that you're going to do, is it
November 2 through 4?
D - Now let me get that straight. I don't have a calendar in front
of me.
S - I think that was what was mentioned
D - The interviewing will end about 11 or 12 o'clock in the morning
on Saturday.
S - Saturday morning, huh?
D - And will have begun Thursday evening.
S - So it will be the 2nd through
D - Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Don't anticipate follow-ups of
any kind.
S - I see. So then you'd get the results off the computer maybe some
time on Sunday?
D - Well, there'll have to be off on Sunday because - I will know
what the final figure will be about 4 o'clock in the morning on
Sunday morning.
S - Sunday at 4 a.m.?
D - Yes, 4 a.m. We'll be there from noon, I guess, on Saturday until
4 or 5. I'll probably stay right on through until noon because
I have to write the final wire to the newspapers.
S - I see. What will be the best system for us getting together
that day?
D - I'd say the best way to do it would be for me to - now let's see -
I'll know more about my time schedule. If I come home from the
office at 3:30 or 4 o'clock or whatever. I'll probably be up again
at 8 and perhaps that will be the best time for me to call you.
Because I'll have the figure in hand at that point. But I won't
have the text of the report. Now if you could wait until 1:30
in the afternoon I could just simply call you and read the wire.
3.
S - I - Actually what we'd really be interested in would be the figures
rather than the text of the wire. I would like to hear the text
of the wire later in the day, but even if you have those figures
say at 3 or 4 in the morning, don't hesitate to call me.
D - OK. Where should I call you?
S - Well, why don't I give you my direct line at home.
D - Well, let's save that until Thursday as soon - the 2nd or the 3rd
because I really don't know what my schedule is going to be and
when the figure will be available, but if you would like, I will
on the way home or something I'll stop at a gas station and give
you a call.
S - That would work out fine.
D - OK.
S - That will work out very well. We can arrange that, I guess,
Thursday or Friday. Excellent.
D - I wanted to tell you somethat that's not terribly important.
I was going to send you the clipping just for laughs. I had to
speak at a neighborhood parochial school here - intercity parochial
school students, all Catholics of course, 6th, 7th, and 8th grades -
I took - it was a debate between Nixon and McGovern and I was
Nixon and another fellow took - another officeholder here who
is a Democrat - took McGovern's position and we debated all the
points and they had a rally and screaming and hollering and stamping
and so on and when it was all over the results turned out 124 for
the President, 60 for McGovern and 2 undecided. And what I thought
was very significant about that was that obviously those, that age
group sort of parrot their parents and if that's indicative of what
the Catholic center-city vote is likely to be this time, it
strengthens and re-enforces what we've shown all along about
Catholics. And I think it's a very important finding. Every
one of those little things mean something and I know this very
district where these kids live - Humphrey carried it 3 to 1 in
1968.
S - Well, we've talked many times over the last few months about the
movement of the Catholics. I - Are you going to do some of the
analysis of the previous surveys on the Catholics before the
Election, do you think?
D - I should certainly hope so, but I really don't know. Our schedule
is pretty well locked up now. We're going to have - let's see -
we only have 5 more reports. One will be the final, one will be
a turnout story that will be on the Sunday before the Election
no doubt -
S - Sunday would be the turnout, huh?
4.
D - Right.
S - And then Monday, of course, is the
D - Monday is the final - no breakdowns at all - just the national figure.
S - Right.
D - Boy, believe me, it's hard enough coming to that.
S - I can imagine.
D - The Thursday before might be - it could be a regional analysis,
it could be the ethnic vote, or it could be one of our ball plate
boiler
plate
election articles we do every election year on how the Gallup
poll operates. We sort of have that go all over the country before
our figures come out SO people can somewhat understand it.
S - Yeah, establish your position and how you do it.
D - So Gordon between now and then there just ain't going to be much.
S - You've got a release Saturday so you might have one on Tuesday,
I mean you have a release tomorrow.
D - Right.
S - So your fourth one will be some time on Tuesday presumably.
D - Right.
S - Well one on the Catholics should be interesting.
D - It sure would but you see our figures are flip flop so much that
we just don't know what to do with it and my recommendation to
Gallup was to kill it.
S - To pass on the Catholic vote.
D - Yeah, because I don't want to get into trouble on that. You know,
if one figures shows 55-45 Nixon and the next figures show 55-45
McGovern and then back again. There's something wrong because
people don't change that way.
S - Sure
D - It's obviously the sample.
S - Have you gotten any things on personalities or the handling of
the issues or which issues people view as important or anything
you may be releasing?
D - Nothing that we haven't already reported. I doubt that anything
more will be done on that. Now there's always a possibility
5.
D - that we may conduct a full-scale 500 or 1,000 interviews
telephone survey. If these issues continue to be breaking
news like this. I don't know. I can't promise you that.
S - Like the Vietnam one, you mean?
D - Yah.
S - I see. Any more
D - Our big pitch, excuse me, our big pitch on the telephone survey
that is going on now is whether the public regards the peace
effort as an election year gimmick
S - Our discussion of last weekend about your post-election survey
was a factor in the decision I assure you. Things just rushed
at us. So you don't think there's anything more on any of the
other issues that are breaking other than Vietnam?
D - I would doubt it.
S - Any more stuff on amnesty or defense.
D - No, we don't have another thing.
S - Nothing on corruption or any of that.
D - Nope. The well is dry.
S - The well is dry.
D - And how well it is.
S - Yes, indeed. It's incredible. Really incredible.
D - Well, you know you can get yourself hung-up on issues before
this close.
S - Yeah, yeah.
D - We'd rather take the time in developing the final precinct
methodology to the point where we know it's solid and just ride
with that. There'll be issue questions on that precinct sample.
S - I see. That's going to be your key precinct sample rather than
your standard nationwide sample of 300, right?
D - This will be our second precinct sample. The first one was in
early October.
S - Right. That's the large one - the 3,000.
So the figures are really accurate.
6.
D - Well, they should be accurate within 2 or 3 percentage points.
S - Gee that's great.
D - And the most interesting part about it is that we measure
shifts from the two precinct samples. We throw out all the
others.
S - I see, I see.
D - That's how the figure is devised. South, non-South, voting turnouts,
shifts and so on.
S - Would your voter turnout release on Sunday - it wouldn't be based
on that precinct sample would it?
D - No, but it's going to be based on the last two or three. And it
will predict, if you may, what the turnout will be. Of course,
those turnout stories that we've had for the last ten years -
ten elections now have been the most accurate predictions we've
ever made.
S - Really?
D - Oh yeah.
S - What's your guess this time? High turnout or low turnout?
D - Couldn't say.
S - Couldn't say.
D - Based on the apathy that has been shown in the campaign among
the people - that could serve to lower the turnout. But then
again too we have new voters and that could balance out. I would
say if I were to guess it would probably be about the same -
S - I see. But you'll get figures on that turnout story when?
D - About Thursday.
S - Thursday. Good. One last one. We talked last week at some
length about Sindlinger and your views about him. Yesterday
Lubell who is a little more respected pollster said
D - He's a nut
S - Well reportedly said that these new peace things may go over
to McGovern's benefit because many Democrats who were concerned
about his sellout or surrender policy in Vietnam now don't
have that issue facing them and therefore they'll come to vote
for McGovern on the economic issues.
7.
D - (Noise)
S - Don't agree with that, huh?
D - No. Did he base it on anything?
S - No. Just feel or something. He gave a speech and he got quite
a bit of news play.
D - No way that would happen. Well you see the people aren't, as
we pointed out in our reports over the past month and a half,
the people are not that emotionally charged up about Vietnam
issue and the real thing that is bothering the voters of
America today is George McGovern's promise for every aspect
of American life and his "wild, insane economic programs"
they won't go back to him because of the economy because that
is what the voters regard as McGovern's biggest liability.
They lump welfare and so on into the economic program and hell
I don't see any - I would discount that entirely.
S - Very interesting. Have you seen any changes at all on the effect
of the Watergate or the corruption issues?
D - Well they said something about a Gordon Strachan and we had a
lot people who would like to know
S - He's really put a lot - McGovern's put a lot of time and effort
into that - a nationwide speech and the Washington Post has it
every single day.
D - I think probably the most that will get him is a sore throat.
S - You think so? No registration in the public?
D - I would think Gordon now this is just between us. What were the
latest figures - you tell me - I've forgotten.
S - 59-36.
D - All right. 59-36. I would be willing bet that the final figure
would be 59-41 - two way.
S - Really? That's incredible.
D - Because I think that McGovern has not been able to turn the corner.
The momentum - he has not been able to generate any momentum
whatsoever and that would have been the only thing I think -
excuse me for a second - and that was the key to it. If you were
to poll a Humphrey and reverse the trend, he had to do it a couple
of weeks ago because it's too late now. You know momentum takes
a little while to build and it would be awfully dangerous to
predict that in the last three days of the campaign given no
major crisis in the country that McGovern could all of a sudden
8.
reverse 12 or 15 percentage points which has got to be 40 million
votes. 30 million voters. You know 30 million voters are not
swayed like that.
S - You don't think he can sway them on this corruption thing?
D - Nope.
S - That's really interesting. The story has gotten more and more
outlandish.
D - Let's put it this way, Gordon. Look at the last three figures.
There's been no change. There's been some. If the corruption
issue were hitting home. If that issue were hitting home -
excuse me, I'm trying to wrestle kids too at the same time -
S - I understand.
D - It would have hit home and would have shown up in the Democratic
defection column. I mean Democrats who were voting Nixon certainly
would have listened to MCGovern's plea on corruption and they
would have been the first ones to react to it and that defection
figure has gone from 40 to 37 to 32 to 33.
S - So it's basically locked on about 1/3.
D - Locked on a 1/3. I would have expected it to come down from 40
and I would expect it will probably come down to maybe to 29
or 27 or maybe even 25 before the campaign is over. But that's
not going to be enough.
S - Listen on another subject, John. I'm going to be here of course
on Election night as we are watching the returns come in and so
forth and I've been asked if I could talk to you to set up some
arrangement where we could get your analysis and comments and
so forth. The arrangement would be exactly the same as we have
now and I would deliver it directly
D - There is a problem. I don't know how I'm going to handle this.
Because I'm going to be the national anchor man on WHWH news
in Princeton and I'll be giving the voter analysis over the
radio and I'm hooked in from 8 until midnight or later.
S - 8 until midnight doing that commentary.
D - I'm signed up and I just can't get out of that.
S - I understand.
D - The only thing I can say is there may be a break in the action
and they always break for news for 15 minutes and I could give
you a call maybe at 9 or 10 o'clock.
9.
S - Well, as your schedule get more developed and we talk toward
the end of the week, why don't we see if we can set something
like that up. Because I have been asked to talk to you and
get your personal assessment and views as we start watching
the election results come in and is that radio thing you're
going to do be going nationally or will it just be local in
the Princeton area?
D - Well, they're going to have another hook-up with certain other
local stations - it's going to be big New Jersey wide.
S - I'd like to figure out some way where we can get your views that
evening.
D - Well, I don't think - Gordon - my views will be terribly
important at that time. And I'll tell you why. It's damn
dangerous to look at the
10.
D -
But it's going to be significant in that the districts
have been selected because of various factors in the past.
One, that they are heavily Jewish or heavily Catholic or
upper income, heavily Republican, blue collar working man
district and SO on. So, there will be trends of that nature
but I just
if I were you I would watch CBS news and
get the prediction at 9:00.
G - Oh yea, well we're going to that of course.
D - I mean get it at 9:00 because it will be over then.
G - Yea.
D - I figure it'll be over at 8:20.
G - Yea. Well we realize that. I mean, we're going to be doing that
too but this might work out well if you are looking at New Jersey
because that's a terribly interesting state to us. Especially in
light of the way we watch it so carefully like in 1968.
go
D - It's going to/58-42; that's my bet.
G - Really.
D - Yea.
G - That's amazing. Just amazing.
D - Slightly less than the nation.
G - That'll really be outstanding if we can do that.
D - It's been my personal prediction that McGovern will not carry a
state.
G - Any state?
D - Right.
G - Even Massachusetts?
D - Right.
G - Kennedy's going to really work for him the last two weeks.
D - Well.
G - You sound awful bush
It's good to talk to you.
D - You know I just react to the figures that I see and we follow
state polls -- Texas, California, Minnesota, Iowa. The trends
are very clear, I think.
11.
G - Yea, right.
D - Based on history it's going to take, I don't know a real
catastrophe to change things. The President's going to have
to be found in a motel room or something. I don't mean to
be crass but that's the way I look at it.
Laughter and talking
G - But none of these state surveys are showing any move on this
corruption thing either.
D - No.
G - That's amazing. Pleasant information because we're thinking that
as the charges got more outlandish, they might finally be taking
hold. I guess not.
D - Oh, I'm glad I am talking to you today. If you're contemplating
sending any more campaign materials -- make sure they're sent
to my house. Dr. Gallup got them last time and then
G - You lost them.
D - No, I didn't lose them but there were a lot of questions about it.
G - Well, I have a huge box sitting right in front of me -- which
is two feet by three feet and it has everything ever done in this
campaign. Everything from wallets to buttons to set up displays
to literature. Absolutely everything.
D - That's magnificent.
G - Ok, we'll make arrangements for that.
D - I'm trying to think of one more point that we talked about earlier.
Oh, this ethnic vote. That I think is going to be a definite
story. Now when it's going to be -- I'm not exactly sure but
I know Alec Gallup is working on it. About 8000 interviews
which is
G - That would be great. That's a pretty good story for us though
isn't it.
D - Oh yes, but what it does more than anything. It's really the
first time that minorities have been isolated.
G - Yea.
D - In terms of voting behavior and I think it would be a terribly
significant story, in fact, I'm looking at the possibility of
perhaps doing a book on the ethnic vote.
G - If you do that talk to us because we have some campaign materials
assembled because as you know we targeted tremendous amounts of
appeal to the peripheral urban ethnic,
12.
D - I've seen the Irish for Nixon, the Polish for Nixon.
G - Well, listen it goes much, much beyond that-demographic maps
and the whole thing. So we should really talk about that if
you're serious.
D - Ok, why don't you call me Monday evening.
G - I'll do that.
D - Here.
G - Ok, very good.
D - Thanks alot.
G - Bye
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 23, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies tonight developed several
interesting items. To summarize:
23
1) The next Gallup Trial Heat Release will appear Thursday,
October 26. The final figures are 59-36-5, based on
October 13-18 polling dates. The last Gallup poll was
60-34-6 based on September 29-October 9 polling dates;
2) Davies confirmed that the only other trial heat poll
before the election will be conducted November 2-4 for
release on November 6;
3) The President's support among Democrats has moved from
32% to 33%, a statistically insignificant change except
that it indicates the President's support among Democrats
has not begun to drop;
4) Manual Workers are not any longer supporting the President
as they were. Early in the campaign the President led 68-32.
Now the lead is down to 49-45. Davies speculates that the
labor leaders are beginning to increase the pressure and that
the best issues to hold manual workers to the President are
law and order, amnesty, and Vietnam;
5) Although Gallup has done no recent polling on the Vietnam
settlement rumors, a poll conducted in September indicated
that the people do not expect an end to the war before the
end of the year;
- 2 -
6) Davies warns against a settlement before the election
because the public regards last minute foreign policy
decisions as so political as to work against the President.
Davies cites the Gallup post-1968 election survey which
showed that the public objected to LBJ's bombing halt 4 days
before the election. The effect of the public's objection
did not appear in four days and Humphrey benefitted. Davies
recommends that if a settlement is reached that it be
explained as the culmination of four years of struggle, well-
documented;
7) Although an underdog candidate usually begins closing
the gap in the last two weeks, it is Gallup's opinion that
McGovern cannot now close a gap this wide; and
8) Davies is prepared to bet the President will win 58-42.
A transcript is attached.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - October 23, 1972
D - Yes?
S - Gordon.
D - Hi, Gordon, how are you doing?
S - Good - yourself?
D - OK - you caught me just at the best time.
S - Perfect.
D - Let me collect my thoughts here. It's 59-36-5.
S - 59-36-5 - and those dates were
D - October 13-18.
S - October 13-18. And you're not going to go into the field again
before November 2?
D - That's correct. We'll be in the field - right - not until November 2.
Actually, I was just checking into this on the strength of your
comments yesterday and we've actually put out 3 more trial heat
figures than we would normally do in a campaign - and that's not
by design it just happened that way.
S - Now this one is going to be released on Thursday?
D - Thursday, correct. Interestingly, the Democratic figure is - the
statistic is insignificant - but it's up a point to 33. It doesn't
mean anything except that it's holding on.
S - Yeah - right.
D - The other significant finding was that Manual Workers are now at
49-45. It's getting perilously close to having that group go
back over to McGovern.
S - So that Manual Workers have shifted back down?
D - Right. From a wide 68-32 early in the campaign all the way down
2.
49-45 now. So that's a target group if there's ever been one.
S - Yeah - get them back.
D - Not necessarily get them back but just hold them where they are.
S - Sure - what
D - Because if you hold them where they are, there won't be any
problem.
S - Yeah. What appeal to them?
D - Well, the law and order issue - you've got to counteract one thing
and that is the huge appeal among or the huge push among labor
union leaderships to pull these boys back into the column again.
Against some of the issues that they stand firmly in favor,
such as the crime and lawlessness, the amnesty, the war issues
and so on. It's one going against the other and I think probably
the reason for the shift is that the leadership of the unions
are getting to these guys - more than anything I don't think the
vote is terribly hard but I think it's nevertheless a problem
for your organization, particularly if the race gets any closer -
which you won't know about from us until November.
S - Right on the crunch.
D - Right.
S - Have you picked up anything on the Vietnam settlement rumors?
D - No.
S - The public's attitude or any previous
D - Nothing that can be measured, unfortunately.
S - Nothing from your previous surveys that would indicate what the
people would think about a settlement or anything?
3.
D - Well we found - I can't recall the figure, it's going to be in
this next index which will be out in about a week or two - I can't
remember the figure but I think the majority of the people don't
think that the war will be over or that there will be a significant
end to the fighting by election time. By the end of this year I
should say. So if there is a ceasefire I would think that this
will surprise a great deal of Americans and work very favorably.
The only thing that worries me and I know we caught wind of it
in the 1968 campaign was what the public regarded - obviously
the Nixon policy now has been and it started 4 years ago and it's
just moving along the way it was designed to move along but the
public regards these last minute major, particularly foreign policy
decisions and events, as political. It can work against a candidate
and this happened in 1968 although it wasn't enough time to show
it - when Johnson came out and announced a halt in the bombing and
so on. It made it look very much as though the Vietnam War was
being ground down all of a sudden and this worked to Humphrey's
benefit initially, but we caught wind of it after the election
that it was just a political ploy and if they had known about it,
they wouldn't have gone for it. But it's something you can't
fight that - I mean, if it's happening, it's happening. But I'd
be careful how it's presented. It should be presented in a sense
that this is a culmination of four long, hard years of struggling
in this area and here is the documentation of that fact. Point
out that January 1, 1969 and all the way through. Otherwise, it's
going to look like a political move and while it may not hurt the
4.
President, it may not help him, which it should.
S - Yeah, that's very interesting. You picked that up in post-election
surveys, huh?
D - Post-election, 1968. We go out the day after an election. Actually
the questionnaire goes out well as a matter of fact as soon as the
final figures are available. We send the questionnaire and we ask
why they voted for the candidate that they did, do they have any
second thoughts now, if so what and why and so on. You obtain a
great deal of data that way. It's all - you know hind-sight is
all 20-20, but it's still
S - Sure. Very useful - post-election surveys. Anything else that's
new.
D - I'm just trying to think what else was in that
no, I don't
think that there was anything that was terribly significant other
than the figures that I've given you. We documented the fact
that generally the underdog candidate in the last 8 elections -
the time that he closes the gap, if he does, is in the last two
weeks of the campaign. This is the critical period and Dr. Gallup's
view of that today - not for publication but just for our own
edification - that many of the lower income, lower educated groups
in the country just begin getting interested in the election at that
point in time and prior to that they haven't paid much attention to
it and there's a lot of pressure put on them at the local level as
we talked about so that's about the gist of that as we see it.
5.
S - Do you think he has enough time in the last two weeks?
D - No. Just to give you an idea. I made a private bet the other night
where I gave the person I was going against - I gave him 14 million
and McGovern - I bet him $100.
S - Jesus. What's that on a percentage - 14 million votes?
D - Be about 58-42 - landslide. And he didn't take it and he's a Democrat -
so - I don't know. I don't know what that means. I think he knows
better, I guess. Gordon, I win it and I'll buy you a drink with it
some time next year.
S - Listen - after the election we can buy ourselves a couple of things.
D - Right.
S - We'll have a good time.
D - So that's about it.
S - Well I sure appreciate it.
D - I'll be in New York all day tomorrow, but we may have something
developing issue-wise come Wednesday or Thursday. So don't hesitate
to call me in the evening.
S - I sure will.
D - OK Gordon.
S - Thank you, John.
D - Right, Bye.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Gallup
WASHINGTON
October 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies today developed
several interesting items. To summarize:
1) The next Gallup trial heat release is
scheduled for Thursday, October 26. The
polling dates were Oct 14-15. A standard
1500 sample was used and the results will
be within one or two points of 60-34-6, the
figures released on October 15 based on the
Sep 29- Oct 9 Gallup Poll;
2) The next Gallup trial heat field survey
is scheduled to be conducted November 2, 3
and 4. The results are scheduled to be re-
ported November 6, the Monday before the
election. (Bob Teeter has obtained con-
flicting information - that Gallup is in the
field this weekend - Oct 21-22 and will have
results on Tuesday, Oct. 24).
3) There will be more Gallup issue releases than
originally planned. Because Gallup is using the
regular 1500 sample there will not be the demo-
graphic releases based on the Oct 14-15 survey.
Instead, Gallup will consolidate three surveys
and release information on particular ethnic
groups, such as Irish, Italian, Middle
Europeans, etc.
4) Dr. Gallup Sr's theory is that the issue
questions - which political party is better able to
handle peace and prosperity - lead the trail heat
figures. This showed Dr. Gallup in 1968 that Humphrey
was moving up. However, in 1972 the only move-
ment is in our favor;
-2-
5) Davies believes the Connally 30 minute was
"one of the most devastating political shows that
I have seen in a long time.' He thinks that it
covered all bases and that we do not need to do
anything on the economy. The only change Davies
would suggest is re-emphasize that Connally is
a Democrat at the end. This will help hold the
32% Democrats who have left McGovern for the
President. Many Democrats are under pressure to
return to the fold, but as long as they believe
that they have company they will stay with the
President.
6) Davies thinks the Connally speech should be
run in segments. He thinks we should avoid the
sarcasm of the Democrats for Nixon attack spots
because it will look like the President is nit-
picking and kicking the guy when he is down.
7) He could not say whether the President was
holding his position with Catholics because
the samples are too small to permit statistically
significant comparisons.
8) He believes the Frank Rizzo contact is excellent
because of the positive effect on Italians everywhere.
However, he thinks the Revenue Sharing Signing
Ceremony was a dud;
9) Davies believes the President should spend
more time in controlled TV situations to prevent the
news shows from using uncomplimentary material
from stump events. He cites the TV news film of the
President jerking Agnew around to get him on camera.
10) Althoughhe recognizes the political fact that it
would be wrong to debate McGovern, Davies suggests
that it be considered because the President would
cream McGovern and the people want debates.
A transcript of the conversation is attached.
CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - OCTOBER 21, 1972
G:
Hello, John?
D:
Hi, Gordon, how are you?
G:
Good, before the ball game gets really started I thought
I might talk for a minute - do you have a minute?
D: Sure.
G:
Do you know when you guys are going to be in the field next?
D: The survey that was conducted last weekend will be reported
probably Thursday. It looks like there is no change in the
figures, apparently.
G: Really?
D: Yeah, we've got a final figure but you know if there is a change
it's only going to be a point or two.
G:
Gees, that's amazing!
D:
Did you see the College -
G:
Yes, I did.
D: That was amazing.
G:
It really is. It's just really holding up there. Delightful for
us. But, do you think that will be reported Thursday-huh?
D:
Thusday, and at the latest Sunday -- I can't see it going to
Sunday, frankly.
G:
Yeah, because it is - that was over the weekend of the 14th
and 15th?
D: Right.
G:
Just the two days?
D:
Right -a regular size sample this time.
G:
Oh, rather than the large one - are you going to report some more
information from the large one?
D:
Ah...I would doubt it frankly Gordon, um. let's see, I'm just look-
ing at the calendar here -- let's see 14th and 15th, ah...I
guess the next survey that we will have in the field will be, let
me just get myself oriented here. 2,3, and 4 of November.
page 2
G:
That late huh? Nothing between the 14th and 15th and the
2,3, and 4, huh?
D:
Right.
G:
Then you'll report that when, the Sunday before election?
D:
Monday.
G:
Monday, before election - and those will be the only two
huh?
D:
The way I see it know, yes - there could be something special
thrown in but I would doubt it.
G:
Huh! That's interesting. What are you going to release in the
meantime - demographics or some more issue stuff?
D:
Probably more issue stuff. We're going to stay away from the
demographics on the small sample basis.
G:
Yeah.
D:
Of course, we'll be ah
with the figure remaining SO constant,
what we are really thinking of doing, is combining about 4500
interviews of registered voters, and reporting the ethnic groups,
Irish, the Anglo-Saxon types and so on.
G:
Oh - fascinating!
D:
We've never done that before and I think the reason we haven't
is becassethe figures have always changed so much and there was too
much shift between the groups but know we can very safely do this -
break it out by the British, Irish and then Italians, oh, Middle
Europeans, Czechs, and Hungarian descent and so on. And do that
within major city areas and taking maybe 15 of the major cities
in the country and doing it that way.
G:
If you are running those handling of the issue questions - remember
that you mentioned that Dr. Gallup, Sr. uses to sort of sense any
movement. Any indication at all of any movement.
D:
Yeah - to your favor.
G:
At our favor, huh? And that's again in the most recent one, huh?
D:
Hmm, hmmm-Yup.
G:
Did you happen to see his economic speech last night?
D:
Yes.
G:
What did you think of it?
page 3
D:
I think it sounded as though I had talked to him after I
had talked to you.
G:
Laughing (both of them)
He's got to get well on that issue.
D:
Well, I think if I were he, that's what I would be doing.
It wasn't terribly inspiring I didn't think. One of the most
devastating political shows that I have seen a long time was
that Democrats for Nixon last night around 7:30 or SO.
G:
What did you think of that?
D:
God almighty - that was unbelieveable. John Connally - he is
tremendous.
G:
Should we run that more or should we try to do something on the
economic area?
D:
I think that covers all bases - you know, it makes the President
a leader. You know, and you choose between a leader and a sayer.
I had a group of people in last night and it just happened to be on.
I didn't even know it was going to be on and, well we were in
stiches about the whole thing it was so well done and so devastating
and so believeable. Which is the key part of it - you know it's
not like - you know I wish that they had changed the ending of it -
if I had put my public relations 2¢ worth in there, well if I
had the opportunity - I would have ended it on a different note.
G:
Like what note?
D:
Well, have Connally himself say at the end that after this 1/2
hour, I just want everybody to remember that I am a Democrat.
Because it ended sort of - it left you hanging. Of course that's
the key - if your side can hang on to that Democratic defection
group.
G:
That
2% that you keep reporting to us.
Do you think that that type of speech, that type of appeal, holds
them to us?
D:
Very much SO. Because you see, we know in talking to Democrats
that there is a great deal of willingness early in a campaign
for a Democrat to say he's voting for the other side - or even for
a Republican to say he is voting for the other side. And all he
needs is comfort in the fact that's he's not the only one or else
he 'll go back. Because there is too much pressure put on him at the
local level - he's got his committee man and his ward leaders and
his chairman and all those people who are driving him crazy trying to
bring him back to the fold again - but as long as he believes that
he's got company then he's alright - That's why I think that this
John Connally speech is a terrific one.
page 4
G:
Right - That appeal - that's our issues that hold them
D:
You know what one guy said last night - a pretty learned fellow -
he said after seeing that 1/2 an hour, I think we are looking
at the Republican candidate for President in 1976.
G:
Laughing - that's four years away but he is a powerful speaker.
D:
The one thing that impressed me about him was that he sounds
very much like Lyndon Johnson.
G:
Yeah, well Texans talk alike, I guess. On stuff that we should
do towards the end, do you think more Democrats for Nixon stuff
should be run, like that Welfare Spot. If you noticed, McGovern
mentioned that last night in his speech - remember that Welfare
TV Spot that you mentioned last week with the guy sitting up on the
rooftop - or should more positive stuff be run - like some 60 second
spots that have been done on China and Youth and so forth? What's
your feeling on that?
D:
I'll tell you - I'm not in your business but if I had my way
and if I were leading the public relations campaign for the President,
I would break that John Connally speech up into about 20 segments.
Keep firing that. I would lay off some of the sarcasm of the
girder thing - I mean I think that that hit home in the beginning
and too much of that could hurt. Because, it looks like the President
is nit-picking and he sort of going after - kicking the guy when
he is down.
G:
I see.
D:
I would stress the positive - the Russia Trips - what did Connally
say last night? There was one line in there that I thought was
absolutely fantastic when he said that the President was pre-eminent
or was it
G:
Pre-eminent foreign policy leader of our times.
D:
Yeah in the World today - that's the kind of thing that will keep
people on the President's side.
G:
Keep the Democrats that we've got, huh?
D:
I think SO - as long as he keeps saying it.
CHANGING TAPE
G:
Well, you have to explain the facts - it just isn't profitable to
come out and raise the level of debate by, you know, explaining
just what the situation is. Especially since Dwight has been
so much of a behind-the-scenes type guy - not really available.
D:
What has Dwight been doing recently?
page 5
G:
Well, he does an awful lot of the planning for the trips -
alot of the thoughts of where the President is going to
go - the schedule things, the funny thing about it is that
at the time of these terrible occurences, Chapin was over
in China for about three months and then he got back and spent
a month and went over to Russia. Well - in any event.
D:
Putting in 7 days a week these days?
G:
Oh yeah! 17 days left. But any how, we'll bear up - anything
else of note?
D:
Well, let me see - I can't think of anything - we're hoping to
get the National figures out, at least the National figure, the
Thursday or Friday or Sunday - something in that number. There's
alot of work that goes into that - we just don't take it off the
computer and let it fly. There's alot of sample checking and
very frankly - if the sample is off in some respects we don't
let it go and we get criticized for that.
G:
Well, you have to do that if you are going to maintain your
position - you just plain have to be careful. No indicattion
then that there will be any substantial change at all.
D:
No, none whatsoever.
G:
Good.
D:
Which I think is rather unusual. You know, it's not to be
expected. You would think that at least part of the water
would have to return to its own level, but there is none
of that taking place whatsoever and to me it's amazing.
G:
Are we still holding on Catholics? I know there was an awful lot
of movement on the Catholics.
D:
It's hard to say, Gordon, because of the sample size - it's hard
to say whether that's holding on our not.
G:
Yeah - nothing out of that 2600 sample that would indicate
that huh?
D:
No, because the only thing that we would be comparing that to
would be the other figures which would be based on smaller
samples.
G:
I see.
D:
And you know, we don't really know which one to believe. Even
with the larger sample the Catholic base is not that large.
G:
right - that's very hard to ticket.
page 6
D:
I think this Frank Rizzo contact is another very excellent
thing - I've been getting alot of feed-back from my
city - we have a rather huge Italian population here and
my guess is that Trenton, particularly, this is not important
to you but it's only one small city but - the Trenton which
has a huge Catholic and particularly Italian population will
probably come very close to getting Nixon a better majority
this time - which will be the first time in modern election
history that that's ever happened. And, I think that that
is all because of the President's continued stand opposing
bussing, amnesty and so on and these people are very emotional
people as you know. And I think Frank Rizzo helps - I think
every time people in the Trenton's of America see Frank Rizzo
on television with the President, as galling as it may sound
to people who live in well-to-do neighborhoods and don't like
Frank Rizzo, I think in the long run you are making points
with that.
G:
Yeah, especially in a setting like a Revenue-Sharing Signing
session, you know?
D:
Somehow or another, I didn't think that that came off.
G:
Really? Well, maybe it was too substantive to come over on TV.
D:
As a matter of fact, since we are talking very honestly, I
think it was almost a dud. And I am directly affected by Revenue-
Sharing - ell, it's going to mean $2 million to my budget - you
know, $1.9 million this year and of course, I am terribly excited
about it and so are alot of other people. But for some reason
or another, ther presentation of it just left something to be
desired. I don't think it was the President or the Vice President
or Rizzo or anybody elso who put the damper on it but there was
just something missing that I can't put my finger on. It should
have been a hell of alot bigger.
G:
Yeah - well, it is one of our big Domestic accomplishments.
D:
It's a tremendous accomplishment I think.
G:
Cause we really turned things around on that. And that was the
theme of the President's radio address today.
D:
Do you agree with me on that or not?
G:
Well I'm afraid I am too close to it that's why I sort of like
talking to you because your're sort of an objective independent
observer - you know, we sit around and we chase around and do all
these things but then we get to close to it and we can't look
at it objectively. So, Ireally appreciate your comments on that.
We're going to make a couple of more trips, I'd sure appreciate
page 7
your reaction to those. We are going to New York on Monday
and will make a couple of more trips and your comments would be
very much appreciated.
D:
Well, I don't know what they are worth - I don't know, I get to
see alot of different people and I don't know I sort of try to
think public relations wise and I'm watching the tube and
so on and I had a feeling that the President should be spending more
time on TV and less time in the street. That's only - I think the
President is tremendous on the television set and he can't get to
enough people in the streets and the damn press is so, you know
if you watch the local - I don't know how much local coverage
you have been wise to but - stations such as Philadelphia and
New York, because McGovern is the underdog - they are giving
McGovern a hell of alot of spread - for example, Channel 6 News
in Philadelphia last night, the ABC affiliate, made a big point
at the end of the Revenuse Sharing where the President was tugging
at the Vice President's collar trying to get him to turn around for
the cameras - they sort of made a joke of it and the whole presen-
tation ended on sort of sour note because of that - you know, the
announcer said something like "There was only one thing that went
wrong yesterday and that was that the President had to jerk Agnew
around to get him on the camera.
G:
What a cheap shot!
D:
Yeah and that's the kind of thing that you are getting.
G:
Huh! So you think more formal settings where that sort of thing
can't happen.
D:
Right.
G:
You don't think the President runs the risk of being over-exposed
on TV? Anything in the polls that would indicate that people are
getting tired of him on TV.
D:
No, I couldn't say anything about that but you know, I would
but it is a dangerous thing to even try it - but I would think that
this year more than eny year for Nixon to debate McGovern, even though
it's a very poor political ploy when you are running SO far ahead -
you are really giving amunition to your enemy - I think this is
going to be McGovern's you know, last weak kick, that the President -
and I am only quoting him - that the President was clobbered by
Kennedy in 1960 and he knows exactly what I would do to him if I got
before the cameras again and I have a feeling that 1) the President
would come out tremendous in a debate such as that and 2) as we
all know and you all know particularly, there is more to the next
four years than this election. So the President is going to want
to make
a.
CHanging Tape
page 8
D.
And a damn shame we haven't because I would bet if we said, you
know, would you like to see a debate between McGovern and Nixon
on television I would bet that 80% of them would say yes.
G.
Huh.
D.
I would also like to ask -- but it's too late, of course -- right
now before the debate who do you think would come out ahead. And
I think that Nixon would, you know
the people feel today
that Nixon would clobber this guy, McGovern, and would love to
see it.
G.
Right.
D.
You see here you have McGovern in one corner of the United States
and Nixon at the other corner of the United States and no chance
for them to get together. McGovern is hammering at this 1960
debate business.
G.
Yea. Of course, through brilliant staff work, McGovern sent a
telegram which he had hoped to address, planned on addressing,
to the President demanding a debate but instead he sent it to
Clark MacGregor. You know, just a mistake on his part. Clark
MacGregor, of course, accepted. Laughter.
D.
Laughter. Isn't that great.
G.
What a way to go. Well, what else is there of note.
D.
Not too much.
You know I don't want to get in
Don't
listen to me.
G.
Really?
D.
I don't know, you know, I just see these things through my own
eyes. Don't take my words as any.
G.
Oh yea, but you're independent and looking at polling data and a
sensitive political observers. We get awfully isolated in here.
D.
I'll bet you do. What's the atmosphere like there.
G.
Well, we just would very much like to see the election this Tuesday
instead of two Tuesdays away. Just like to get it over and have
the mudslinging stop.
D.
Get back to work.
G.
And get back to work. I sort of view it as -- I'm anxious to have
it but wish it would come and go.
page 9
D.
Do you plan to stay on for the next four years.
G.
I really don't know. I've been away from the law for a couple
of years now and I really don't know what I'm going to do. I
haven't had a lot of time to think about it yet. After the election,
though, I'll figure out what I'm going to do. So, the first
thing I'm going to do is get a pretty detailed description of
what the facts were on all these incredible charges. Anyhow
we'll see how that goes.
D.
OK, Gordon, why don't you give me a ring on Monday.
G.
All right, I'll do that.
D.
Get something then in terms of figures.
G.
Very good.
D.
Why don't you call me about six o'clock at night.
G.
OK, I'll call you at your home Monday evening.
D.
Very fine.
G.
Thanks alot, John. Bye, now.
D.
Bye.
asa Davies re vn Settlement
59-36-5 2 Oct 13-18
Thurs release
nov 2, 3, 4
Put out 3 more Tel Heat
l
Dem sigure - up to 33
statistically norgnil
but Orldens
2
49/45- manual worders
68/32 - early in
campaign
(now a
Law + order
Target Grp
Counta push huge labor lars
amnesty
was Issue
headership getting to them
3
nothing on rumars - or settlement
- next Index - 1-2 was
may of people doubt an
end to was by eno
open -surpriseus
4
Public regards last minute
per pere decisions as
politice + world ay/
the P.
-LBJ ter pol but the
4 days so close
- just a poe peoy
- very careful re presentation,
wlmenstion of 4 yrs
of struggle, document
b
- Past elee 68 overweys
- day after elee.
5
Gently underdog cand, must
close gap il he dues
in last 2 was,
- many of lower ine, educe
gips ust begin thinking
of elec in last 2 was
* gave 14 mil votes + MeG
- not enough time
for $100 - Dem didn'tallect.
58/42
NIXON-Mc
VERN DEMOGRAPHICS
H-8/28-9/1
1/3-9/5-16
NIXON
0-9/29-10/10
0-10/6-8
H-8/28-9/1
W3-9/5-16
McGOVE
0-9/29-10/1
0-10/6-8
H-8/28-9/1
N
NATIONAL
57
63
62
59
61
59
59
34
29
32
31
33
28
25
9
8
6
10
6
13
16
SEX
Male
58
63
61
58
58
65
62
33
29
33
32
36
25
24
9
8
6
10
6
10
14
Female
56
63
64
59
58
53
56
35
29
31
30
30
32
27
9
8
6
11
6
15
17
AGE
18-24
47
52
44
52
55
49
47
44
50
46
40
41
6
4
6
2
5
10
25-49
58
59
50
64
63
60
34
34
41
29
22
24
8
7
9
6
15
16
50+
59
65
61
61
62
57
61
28
26
29
25
31
30
20
13
9
10
14
7
13
19
EDUCATION
8th grade
52
56
56
52
51
56
53
36
36
38
34
41
29
25
12
8
7
14
8
15
22
High School
58
66
67
60
65
61
61
31
26
26
29
30
24
25
11
8
7
11
5
15
14
College
58
63
66
59
61
63
62
37
31
32
33
35
30
27
5
6
3
8
4
7
11
UNION
49
56
56
55
52
58
55
40
34
39
34
42
31
28
11
10
5
11
6
11
17
RACE
White
62
67
67
64
67
64
63
29
25
26
26
28
25
21
11
8
7
10
5
11
16
Black
16
22
25
13
10
24
31
77
67
74
75
82
52
53
7
11
2
12
8
24
16
RELIGION
Catholic
55
62
63
58
52
52
61
33
27
31
31
40
37
22
12
11
6
11
8
11
17
Protestant
68
74
66
71
70
66
64
24
20
29
20
26
20
22
8
6
5
9
4
14
14
Jewish
46
49
32
37
32
32
44
43
56
39
51
37
10
8
15
24
17
31
INCOME
Under $5,000
52
56
58
53
44
47
39
36
35
37
44
32
9
8
8
10
12
21
$5-9,999
55
58
59
54
35
32
35
33
10
10
6
13
64
58
23
28
13
14
$10-14,000
58
70
65
64
31
23
29
27
11
7
6
9
$15,000+
65
71
72
66
67
75
30
24
25
27
28
13
5
5
4
7
5
12
POLITICS
Republican
87
93
89
95
91
90
10
5
7
4
4
3
3
2
4
1
5
7
Democrat
38
43
41
32
37
42
53
47
48
61
47
41
9
10
11
7
16
17
REGION
East
58
60
61
56
52
57
33
34
30
34
36
26
9
6
9
10
12
17
Midwest
53
64
58
53
58
55
36
29
38
34
30
29
11
7
4
13
12
16
South
65
70
67
70
70
69
67
27
19
27
22
24
17
20
8
11
7
8
6
14
13
West
55
58
60
59
54
57
39
34
35
32
33
25
6
8
4
9
13
18
H.
W3
H
f
8/2-3
8/28-9/1
9/5-16
9/19-21
9/22-25
Total
57-34-9
63-298
62-32-6
59-31-10
61-33-6
58-32-10
Ihen
58-33-9
63-29-8
61-33-6
63-29-8
58-36-6
59-30-11
women
56-35-9
63-29-8
64-31-6
63-298
64-30-6
18-24 gro
47-47-6
52-44-4
44-50-6
52-46-2
35-49
58-34-8
59-34-7
50-41-9
64-29-6
50+
59-28-13
65-26-9
61-29-10
61-25-14
62-31-7
8th grade
52-36-12
56-36-8
56-38-7
52-34-14
51-41-8
high sded college
58-31-11
66-26-8
67-267
60-29-11
65-30-5
58-37-5
63-31-6
66-32-3
59-33-8
61-35-4
union
49-40-11
56-34-10
56-39-5
55-34-11
52-42-6
non-Union
66-29-6
white
62-29-11
67-25-8
67-26-7
64-26-10
67-28-5
Bluck
16-77-7
22-67-11
25-74-2
13-75-12
10-82-8
Cath
55-33-12
62-27-11
63-31-6
58-31-11
52-40-8
Prot
68-24-8
74-20-6
66-29-5
71-20-9
70-26-4
Jewish
46-44-10
V9-438
32-56-15
37-39-24
Under 5 00
52-39-9
56-36-8
58-35-8
53-37-10
5-59,999
55-35-10
58-32-10
59-356
54-33-13
10-14,999
58-31-11
70-23-7
65-29-6
64-27-9
over 15
65-30-5
71-24-5
72-25-4
66-27-7
Dem Eep H
87-10-3
93-5-2
89-7-4
95-4-1
38-53-9
43-47-10
41-48-11
32-61-7
Eart
58-33-9
60-34-6
61-30-9
56-34-10
judwast
53-36-11
64-29-7
58-38-4
53-34-13
Jouth
65-27-8
70-19-11
67-27-7
70-22-8
10-24-6
West
55-39-6
58-34-8
60-35-4
59-32-9
0
0
9/29-10/1
10/6-8
Total
59-28-13
59-25-16
men
65-25-10
62-24-14
Women
53-32-15
56-27-17
18-24
55-40-5
49-41-10
35-49
63-22-15
60-24-16
50+
57-30-13
61-20-19
80g
56-29-15
53-25-22
LD
61-24-15
61-25-14
Call
63-30-7
62-27-11
unign
58-31-11
55-28-17
white
64-25-11
63-21-16
Block
24-52-24
31-53-16
Oath
52-37-11
61-22-17
liot
66-20-14
64-22-14
you L& 5,000
32-51-17
32-37-31
44-44-12.
47-32-21
5-9.999
64-23-13
58-28-14
10-14,999
+15
67-28-5
75-13-12
Rep
91-4-5
90-3-7
Dem
37-47-16
42-41-17
E
52-36-12
57-26-17
m
58-30-12
55-29-16
S
69-17-14
67-20-13
W
54-33-13
57-25-18
HARRIS SURVEY
September 22, 1972
ORC
8/2 8/3
8/29-8/31
8/28 - 9/1
9/19 9/21
N
McG
N
McG
U
N
McG
NS
N
McG
NS
Nationwide
57
34
63
28
9
63
29
8
59
31
10
East
58
33
58
33
9
60
34
6
56
34
10
Midwest
53
36
63
27
10
64
29
7
53
34
13
South
65
27
67
24
9
70
19
11
70
22
8
West
55
39
61
28
11
53
34
8
59
32
9
Deep South
68
26
68
20
12
71
19
10
Border States
62
29
69
22
9
66
26
8
Cities
50
42
53
39
8
43
44
13
Suburbs
57
33
68
25
7
64
26
10
Towns
62
31
67
24
9
66
26
8
Rural
62
28
68
24
8
68
22
10
18-24 year olds
61
37
2
47
47
6
44
50
6
25-49 year olds
59
34
7
50
41
9
18-29 year olds53
43
57
36
7
52
42
6
47
45
8
30-49 year old58
34
64
26
68
25
7
63
10
29
8
50+
59
28
64
24
12
65
26
9
61
25
14
8th Grade
52
36
51
29
20
56
36
8
52
34
14
High School
58
31
68
25
7
66
26
8
60
29
11
College
58
37
68
26
6
63
31
6
59
33
8
Union
49
40
59
28
13
56
34
10
55
34
11
Men
58
33
65
28
7
63
29
8
58
32
10
Women
56
35
62
26
12
63
29
8
59
30
11
White
62
29
68
23
9
67
25
8
64
26
10
Black
16
77
24
61
15
22
67
11
13
75
12
Under $5,000
52
39
51
41
8
56
36
8
53
37
10
$5,000 $9, 900 55
35
58
32
10
54
33
13
$10, 000-$14, 900 58
65
31
25
10
.70
23
7
64
27
9
$15,000+
65
30
71
24
71
24
5
66
27
7
5
Republicans
87
10
96
2
2
93
5
2
89
7
4
Democrats
38
53
41
48
43
47
10
41
48
11
11
Independents
60
25
68
22
68
22
10
66
26
12
10
White Catholics 55
33
60
26
62
11
58
31
11
14
27
WASP
68
24
70
22
8
74
20
6
71
20
9
Jewish
46
44
37
49
43
8
37
39
24
54
9
Irish
59
31
10
54
33
13
Italian
65
25
10
52
31
17
N Nixon
McG McGovern
NS - Not Sure
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
B
Hawr
TO: Gordon Strachan
FROM: Dick Howard
Lou Harris
Trial Heats
9/1/72
Not
Nixon-Agnew
McGovern-Shriver
Sure
Total Voters
64
31
5
East
60
36
4
Midwest
63
32
5
South
71
21
8
West
57
38
5
Deep South
75
17
8
Border States
68
25
7
Cities
53
42
5
Suburbs
69
26
5
Towns
67
26
7
Rural
68
27
5
18-29 yr. olds
51
45
4
30-49 yr. olds
68
27
5
50+
66
27
7
8th grade
57
37
6
High School
65
29
6
College
63
33
4
Union
56
38
6
Men
62
32
6
Women
64
32
4
White
69
26
3
Under $5,000
56
38
6
$9, 900
58
36
6
$10, 000-$14, 900
71
24
5
$15, 000+
71
25
4
Republicans
94
5
1
Democrats
43
51
6
Independents
72
23
5
Voting Nixon
98
2
-
Voting McGovern
1
97
2
White Catholic
63
29
8
WASP
75
21
4
Jewish
44
54
-
Irish
65
29
6
Italian
65
26
9
Alienated
57
37
6
Conservative
69
27
4
Middle Road
59
34
7
Liberal
35
61
4
Black
23
70
7
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
9/22
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FOLLOW UP
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
Check with Dick Howard on Friday, September 22 regarding
the availability of the Harris results from the poll
conducted September 19-21. Also check on the Harris
demographic from the last Harris release of 63-29.
1972
NIXON-McGOVERN TRIAL HEAT
(0) Jul 19-20 (H) Aug 2-3 zl
M
N.
NATIONAL
57
54
52
53
34
27
32
34
9
19
16
13
SEX
Male
58
56
56
52
33
25
47
35
9
19
16
13
Female
56
52
47
53
35
29
36
33
9
19
17
14
RACE
White
62
59
56
56
29
22
28
31
9
19
16
13
Non-white
16
16
24
29
77
66
65
56
7
18
11
15
EDUCATION
College
58
56
52
57
37
30
37
36
5
14
11
7
High School
58
57
56
54
31
24
31
32
11
19
13
14
Grade School
52
47
48
45
36
29
29
36
12
24
23
19
OCCUPATION
Prof.&Bus.
59
33
8
White Collar
54
32
14
Farmers
71
27
2
Manual
45
38
17
AGE
18-20 yrs
50
*42
58
38
50
53
39
43
40
48
^
12
8
3
21-29 yrs
43
*46
41
39
4
18
14
11
30-49 yrs
58
57
*59
56
34
23
26
30
8
20
15
14
50 & over
59
57
* 57
53
28
23
32
31
13
20
11
16
RELIGION
Protestant
**68
59
57
60
24
23
28
28
8
18
15
12
Catholic
55
50
48
46
33
28
34
41
12
22
18
13
Jewish
46
49
25
X
44
40
46
X
10
11
29
X
POLITICS
Republican
87
92
85
85
10
2
8
7
3
6
7
8
Democrat
38
32
34
34
53
49
48
52
9
19
18
14
Independent
60
57
60
42
25
20
23
44
15
23
17
14
REGION
East
58
58
51
53
33
28
36
37
9
14
13
10
Midwest
53
54
47
50
36
24
36
34
11
22
17
16
South
65
53
58
56
27
26
24
30
8
21
18
14
West
55
50
46
54
39
34
37
33
6
16
17
13
INCOME
$15,000 & over
65
64
60
58
30
24
30
33
5
12
10
9
$10,000-$14,999
58
53
56
31
31
30
11
16
14
$ 7,000-$ 9,999
59
44
55
24
39
17
17
52
$ 5,000-$ 6,999
35
38
10
56
10
30
14
$ 3,000-$ 4,999
52
36
48
50
39
37
28
38
9
27
24
12
Under $3,000
47
38
15
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
50
47
42
41
8
12
500,000-999,999
52
35
13
57
33
10
50,000-499,999
50.
38
12
2,500- 49,999
62
56
31
29
7
15
Under ,500, Rural
62
59
28
27
10
14
Union
49
51
43
40
31
40
11
18
17
Non-Union
55
58
26
27
19
15
1972
NIXON-HUMPHREY TRIAL HEAT
(6) mg (7) Jun 1h-26 52
(H)May 9-10
(I)NOH
(T)JON16-25
(H)may 9-10
E JaN
N
Jad 6
NATIONAL
58
50
54
31
32
42
40
11
16
8
SEX
Male
60
52
54
28
31
38
12
17
8
Female
55
52
53
34
33
42
11
15
5
RACE
White
63
56
57
26
27
36
11
17
7
Non-White
23
18
9
5
70
70
87
92
7
12
4
3
EDUCATION
College
60
63
58
29
26
37
11
11
5
High School
61
53
56
28
31
37
11
16
7
Grade School
53
38
43
46
34
41
48
46
13
21
9
8
OCCUPATION
Prof. &Bus.
63
24
13
White Collar
55
28
17
Farmers
68
27
5
Manual
42
38
20
AGE
18-20 yrs
*52
57
51
*56
33
29
44
39
15
14
5
5
21-29 yrs
*63
54
*52
29
22
44
8
24
4
30-49 yrs
*61
53
*53
31
33
43
8
14
4
50 & over
50
*52
31
38
19
10
RELIGION
Protestant
64
57
61
27
28
33
9
15
6
Catholic
51
47
51
36
37
42
13
16
7
Jewish
25
X
13
53 X
80
22 X
7
POLITICS
Republican
89
89
92
6
4
5
5
7
3
Democrat
37
29
28
30
50
55
63
62
13
16
9
8
Independent
67
57
55
64
22
20
34
23
11
23
11
13
REGION
East
57
52
50
28
35
45
15
13
5
Midwest
55
49
54
33
31
41
12
20
5
South
63
55
55
29
31
34
8
14
11
West
53
53
55
34
28
41
13
19
4
INCOME
$15,000 & over
64
62
53
57
29
26
40
39
7
12
7
4
$10,000-$14,999
61
55
59
29
31
36
10
14
5
$ 7,000-$ 9,999
46
31
23
52
52
38
43
10
5
$ 5,000- $ 6,999
49
32
19
$ 3,000-$ 4,999
48
46
46
28
41
43
24
13
11
Under $3,000
44
36
20
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
47
37
16
500,000-999,999
50
39
11
50,000-499,999
49
32
19
2,500- 49,999
59
24
17
Under 2,500, Rural
55
29
16
Union
52
44
38
50
10
6
Non-Union
62
58
26
35
12
7
1972
NIXON-MCGOVERN TRIAL HEAT
(0)Jul 19-20
12
(T)JUN 16-26
M
(0)Jul 19-20 19
N.O.
NATIONAL
54
52
27
32
16
SEX
Male
56
56
25
28
19
16
Female
52
47
29
36
19
17
RACE
White
59
56
22
28
19
16
Non-White
16
24
66
65
18
11
EDUCATION
College
56
52
30
37
14
11
High School
57
56
24
31
19
13
Grade School
47
48
29
29
24
23
UNION
51
43
31
40
18
17
NON-UNION
55
58
26
27
19
15
AGE
18-24 yrs
43
42
40
50
17
8
25-34 yrs
43
46
39
40
18
14
35-49 yrs
57
59
23
26
20
15
50 & over
57
57
23
32
20
11
RELIGION
Protestant
59
57
23
28
18
15
Catholic
50
48
28
34
22
18
Jewish
49
25
40
46
11
29
INCOME
$15,000 & over
64
60
24
30
12
10
$10,000-$14,999
53
31
16
59
24
17
$ 5,000-$ 9,999
46
39
15
Under $5,000
36
43
37
32
27
25
REGION
East
58
51
28
36
14
13
Midwest
54
47
24
36
22
17
South
53
58
26
24
21
18
West
50
46
34
37
16
17
POLITICS
Republican
92
85
2
8
6
7
Democrat
32
34
49
48
19
18
Independent
57
60
20
23
23
17
1972
NIXON-HUMPHREY TRIAL HEAT
Iz
H
N.O.
3-20 6
NATIONAL
58
54
31
40
11
AGE
18-24 yrs
52
56
33
39
15
5
25-34 yrs
63
52
29
44
8
4
35-44 yrs
61
53
31
43
8
4
45-54 yrs
51
51
34
43
15
6
55-64 yrs
57
52
35
38
8
10
65 years +
62
59
21
31
17
10
EDUCATION
Less than High School
53
46
34
46
13
8
High School Graduate
61
56
28
37
11
7
College
60
58
29
37
11
5
RELIGION
Catholic
51
51
36
42
13
7
Protestant
64
61
27
33
9
6
Jewish
25
13
53
80
22
7
RACE
White
63
57
26
36
11
7
Black
23
5
70
92
7
2
UNION
52
44
38
50
10
6
NON-UNION
62
58
26
35
12
7
INCOME
Under $5,000
48
46
28
43
24
11
$5,000-9,999
52
52
38
43
10
5
$10,000-$14,999
61
59
29
36
10
5
$15,000+
64
57
29
39
7
4
SEX
Male
60
54
28
38
12
8
Female
55
53
34
42
11
5
POLITICS
Republican
89
92
6
5
5
3
Democrat
37
30
50
62
13
8
Independent
67
64
22
23
11
13
REGION
East
57
50
28
45
15
5
Midwest
55
54
33
41
12
5
South
63
55
29
34
8
11
West
53
55
34
41
13
4
EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS ON ATTACHED DEMOGRAPHICS
AGE
1.
>
The Harris Survey includes 18-29 year olds
in its first age group;
2. The Teeter Second Wave Poll uses a different
age breakdown:
(a) The Second Wave 18-24 year olds are
grouped with the 18-20 year olds;
(b) The Second Wave 25-34 year olds are
grouped with the 21-29 year olds;
(c) The Second Wave 35-44 year olds are
grouped with the 30-49 year olds; and
(d) The Second Wave 55-64 year olds are
grouped with the 50 & over category.
RELIGION
1. ** The Harris Survey tests only "White Protestants".
2. The "X" denotes that Gallup does not analyze a
Jewish vote.
COMMUNITY SIZE
Cities
=
1,000,000 & over
>
Suburbs =
50,000 - 999,999
Towns
=
2,500 - 49,999
Rural
=
Under 2,500, Rural
INCOME
>
ORC's second income group is $5,000-$14,999.
Both Harris and Teeter's second income group is
$5,000-$9,999.
Galleep - Sept 29-
Scp 23-24
wlearers
Gai
ORC
&
n MCG ?
n MG
?
E
58(60) 38(40) 4
54(60) 36 (40) 10
mw
60(63) 35(37 5
54(64) 3C(36) 16
So
70(75) 2 4/25/6
67(78) 19 (22) 14
3
5 7(61) 37(396
5 1(61) 33 (39) 16
n.o. taking - out by
alleration not leave
Gal -less no. bel pers
whereas ORC higher
n.o. lell Wephere
n.o going same as
nate vote splet, McG
not getting more n.o.
Davies
total secret collot
only Regis. Voters
Tul Heats Leaverst
1/2 somplet seat
Regis.
office the n.o.
Sched - Release weell for San 10/14
3000 intervises -lorking
a Ry Oct 1-6. - Special wey Elect print
new Resalts
This Ileas result- - Eu - nion leads
in all gipsessept beacas + years
sun stopy
Remog's Esact Polling Dates
John Davie
Rel Sun 8
heave Oct today
ag 24-27 Watergate Is T Pablie
response + on Comp
sooke -
alth MeG lutting on
corpo prey - 1/2 of all 3% ooters
regog ferder atemplt a
op - -not strong reason
for voteing for MeG
-Un
52% - heard of neil
29% - indie
of occer
8 in - -not a strong
3th - no
to 10/ / ber mea
me will win Dew
/ Demis back
ag 24 -21-
The - ORC
n
mc G
not 61
33
Reg 95
4
Rem 32
61
In 67
25
Cath 52
40
Prot 70
26
halvn
Fams 52
42
18-29 52
46
30-49 65
29
50 + 62
31
wh
67
28
Be
10
82
loe
61
35
HS
65
30
Gr Sc
451
41
Prof
68
29
cler
62
32
man
57
35
we
men
58
36
wom
64
30
so
70
24
non So non 80
800 59
36
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
A check again this morning with John Davies at Gallup
disclosed some new information. The Gallup Release for
Thursday or Friday, October 12 or 13 will be "Which
Candidate can best handle the following problems better? -
Vietnam, crime, holding down prices". Although Davies
wouldn't give me the figures, he said, "I know that Nixon
won on all scores".
He confirmed that the trial heat release for Sunday,
October 15 would be 60-35-5, but hedged on "final weight-
ing" and the exact polling dates. The 3,000 sample may
have included both the October 1-6 key precinct survey
as well as the usual weekend survey, October 7-8.
Davies has spoken directly with Dr. George Gallup, Sr.,
about giving me advance information. Davies indicated
he had approval but again emphasized the problem of
confidentiality, noting the fact that I obtained advance
information on last Sunday's Gallup "Corruption" release.
Davies will be in Washington Friday discussing government
polling at GSA. A hold on all Gallup polling in govern-
ment has been established by Bill Gifford in personal
discussion with Cabinet officers and Agency heads. I have
invited Davies to my office Friday and plan on explaining
to him in no uncertain terms the value of our continued
communication.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - Tuesday, October 10, 1972
S - Hello, John, how are you?
D - OK, how are you doing?
S - Good. Can you talk a minute?
D - Sure can.
S - Uh - you said you might have a chance to check the actual computer
sheets on the matter we discussed.
D - Nothing changed yet.
S - So, we're still at 60-33?
D - So far. Right.
S - Do you know the exact polling dates yet - you mentioned it might
shift from just over the weekend.
I
The exact polling dates would have been - you know I still can't
give you that, Gordon.
S - OK.
D - I'm not sure of it yet. I'll check those points out. I won't
know anything, as it turns out, until tomorrow morning first thing.
S - OK.
D - Cause they're working on some other projects and we're not going to
need it until tomorrow morning. So -
S - OK. Very good.
D - If you can give me a ring earlier tomorrow morning around 9:30 or so
because I may be out of here by 10:30.
S - OK - I'll do that. One other thing - have you noticed any of the
demographics on the Catholics or the Jews
- 2 -
D - I haven't seen any demographics yet.
S - OK. Because Harris you know notes today that the Blacks are the only
group that's moving and so we're wondering if that is supported in
your data also.
D - Not yet.
S - All right. Anything else of note?
D - I can't think of anything.
S - And we're going to go on that Thursday release on "Who can best handle"?
D - Right.
S - Do you have those figures by any chance?
D - Those figures will be available this afternoon. You can get those
by calling George.
S - OK. I'll do that.
D - I won't be here this afternoon.
S - OK. I'll call him.
D - OK. About 3 o'clock I would suggest.
S - I'll try it then.
D - - Very fine.
S - Thanks a lot.
D - OK.
S - Bye, John.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - Monday, October 9, 1972
S - John, how are you?
D - How are you?
S - Good.
D - Gordon, you know what I forgot to do?
S - What?
D - I forgot to memorize those damn figures.
S - Uh, oh.
D - Wait a minute. Hold it. I caught him at about 5:30. Oh God.
60-35-5.
S - And that's from over the weekend?
D - Right. Hang on just for one second.
S - Yeah. That was just the two days over the weekend?
D - Right.
S - So you're not going to release that
D - 'til Sunday.
S - Until Sunday.
D - Right.
S - You're aware of what Gallup says tomorrow - I mean Harris tomorrow?
D - Yeah. - He was on ABC News. tonight.
S - Oh good. An advance - 60-33.
D - Yeah.
S - Good.
D - Very comparable. Should be encouraging for he and we.
S - Right.
D - For thee and we.
- 2 -
S - And you're going to release it Sunday, huh?
D - Right.
S - And that's the 7th and 8th for interviewing dates, huh?
D - Gordon, that's a ticklish matter. I don't really know.
S - All right.
D - I would say that it took a little bit longer this one. Because
it's a sample of about 3,000.
S - Oh?
D - A couple of samples which is going to enable us to report individual
regions. I think it's going to be interesting. But we don't have that
yet and I doubt really that we'll have that until after Sunday. WE'll
probably start poking into that on Monday or so next week.
S - All right. Any idea what the release is going to be for Thursday?
D - Uh - we were going to sent it out today. It's based on a series of
questions "Which of the candidates can handle the following problems
better?" - Vietnam, crime, keeping prices down and so on. And although
I can't relate the figures to you because I don't remember them, I know
that Nixon won on all scores.
S - Good, good. That's good news. Anything else of interest?
D - Not that I can think of. No. If I had known you were going to call
tonight, I would have brought me book of sheets home. That's why
I don't want to relate anything on those figures because I really
don't know - I have an idea what they are - but I don't want to put
you on the wrong
...
- 3 -
S - Well is that figure of 60-35 pretty close?
D - 60-35 is on the button.
S - OK.
D - Now it's subject to a final weighting. If anything, it will change it
a point. I don't know where it would change, but it could be 61-35-6
or whatever - I don't know. I think I've won a small battle in the
office for you guys.
S - Good.
D - I damn near got fired doing it. I just sat down. I chatted with
Dr. Gallup the other day and Alec who is the real protagonist.
Never talk to Alec.
S - OK.
D - You call the office and Alec answere the phone tell him that you're
Mortimer Snerd from Albuquerque and hang up.
S - Right.
D - Because he doesn't want to talk to anybody.
S - Yeah - except the Washington Post.
D - Well, that was sort of a follow up on a study. That I don't think
he objects to much. But he's very much opposed to giving information
out to the two parties. But I just pointed out to Dr. Gallup that -
you know, look - if we mail a release out on Wednesday, that damn
thing is in the hands of 161 newspapers and probably 500 individuals
by Friday. Excuse me, Gordon. Now I said that if they wanted to
find those figures out there are anyone of 100 people they could get
it from. There's no problem. And I pointed out the fact that you
guys had been very fair about it. And I won Dr. Gallup over to my
- 4 -
side and that's all I really all I had to do.
S - Well, that's great. Fantastic.
D - But he said to me, please tell them to keep up the good work.
S - Yeah. Well, we'll protect the confidence.
D - Well, what we're afraid of is that some kind of an expose, you
know, by that jerk Anderson or something like that. Then we're
in hot water. And you know, it doesn't look too good for you
either.
S - Oh no, oh no. We're both realizing the risk.
D - We're not trying to give you information that is confidential or
to help you out in anyway although I trembled the other day when
I picked up the New York Times and saw the President's statement
on the corruption charge. You know - the day before I had given
you those figures. I would
...
S - Had I read that statement I too would have trembled. But it was
in response to a question.
D - Right.
S - You know. The reporter just asked him that.
D - I thought the roof was going to come caving in on you.
...
in the
next day.
S - No, they just asked.
D - Everything seems fine as long as there is no mess up and I'm sure
there won't be.
S - Good. Ok. No we'll protect the confident. Keep me posted.
D - I'll be in Washington on Friday the 13th.
S - Hey, why don't you stop in?
- 5 -
D - Well, if I get a chance Gordon. I'll be over at the General
Services Administration and also at the American Psychiatric
Association at the Mayflower. I'd like to but I just don't
know what my schedule is going to be. These meetings tend to
go on and on indefinitely.
S - Well, if you find the time, please stop in. There are quite a
few things to go over.
D - Very fine.
S - Good.
D - Keep up the interest in some questions and so on. Particularly
post-Election questions because those kind of ideas help us.
S - OK. We'll do that. We'll work on something.
D - Ok, sir.
S - Very good, John.
D - If you want to give me a call tomorrow I can verify those -
9 o'clock or SO.
S - OK, I'll do that.
D - OK.
S - Thanks, John, Bye.
D - Bye, bye.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 30, 1972
12:50 p.m.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
The final Gallup figures for release Sunday,
October 1, are 61-33-6, based on the September
23-24 interviews. The wire to the newspapers
will be sent in about one hour.
64-30-6
THE WHITE HOUSE
1
WASHINGTON
Date:
TO: &
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Filein
special Gallup
File
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 30, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Survey
Discussion with John Davies at 11:00 a.m. today
disclosed that the Gallup figures for Sunday,
October 1, based on the September 23 - 24 inter-
view, will be "very close to 60-34-6". These
rough figures are based on 1000 unweighted
interviews. Fifteen hundred interviews will be
tabulated. Davies said "McGovern has narrowed
the gap ever SO slightly". The change probably
will "fall within sampling error".
The "final figures" will be obtained later this
afternoon.
hat Gally Poll 64-30-6
August 24027
CONVERSATION w/
September 30, 1972
John Davies
How are your doing?
G: Good!
Did you get our message?
G: No.
Well you should have.
G: Nope, hasn't come yet. - what is it?
Well, didn't my girl call you yesterday or the day
before?
G: Yea, but she just said that you
Absolutely no figures.
G: Hmmmmmm
And I checked as late as, oh, I guess 8:00 last night
with Alec Gallup, who was inone of the offices during
the week and still nothing yet and they are
supposed to be wired today. Looks like there is
a problem. They didn't get enough ballots in and
I guess it's going to be delayed.
G: But, will they send those figures out for tomorrow?
If they can get them done in time but I don't
think they are going to.
G: Huh!!!
We've got to wait for the full sample to come in
and, a, there was a little bit of a problem apparently,
I don't know that much about it. I was in the office
late yesterday afternoon and they didn't have anything
then - I called last night and still nothing, so I
don't know. Everybody is bugging me too - the New
York Times, the Washington Post - see we've got this
thing scheduled for Sunday and they are going crazy.
Crazier than you people maybe.
G: Really?
The only thing I can tell you at this point, and I hestitate
-- 2 --
to do so, as I hesitated to do for the New York Times,
even though they are a client paper, is that it would
appear that the final figures are likely to show that
McGovern has now begot ever so slightly and hardly
within sampling error. In other words, the figure
is going to show a slight lessening of the gap, probably.
G: A-Huh - you mean below sampling error?
No - within, you see that's the problem. In other words,
when we report the figure, it is likely to be something
like - 60-34 - something like that.
G: Something close to that - huh?
Something close to that, yea - that was based on about
1000 interviews, so, as you know in the past, these
things are subject to change.
G: Yea, but a - you were going to try to get a total of
1500 interviews, right?
Right.
G: When do you think you will know?
You know Gordon, to tell you the truth, I haven't
even been around there and I have absolutely no idea,
I would assume that Alec would call me as soon
as there is a figure available - and what I probably
will do is, I'll probably scoot up to the office around
12:00 and see what the story is then--I'll tell you
what, I'll be here most of the later part of the
afternoon, you know 2-3 to 4, why don't you, I mean
don't hesitate to give me a ring any point in that time
and I'll tell you, if I get it ahead of that period,
I will call you.
G: Okay, good. Come through the general White House number
cause I've left instructions for them to find me any place
since on Saturdays we sort of wander around - SO.
Let me get a piece of paper -- you know, we had a very
interesting trip around the country - confirmed everything
we had found before - no question in our minds that the
President is extremely strong, particularly with these
Democrats that are shifting over - doesn't see to be much
likelyhood that a hell of a lot of them are going to move
3
in the opposite direction, which should be comforting to
you.
G: You don't think they are going to move back-huh?
0.
Not too many of them - we found some that indicated a
possibility that they could change-that McGovern -- just
apparently to most people said too much and has gotten
himself in hot water and should he change would be to
equivocate on his part - it's not good politics.
G: So you think that the committed vote is a little higher
than that poll that you showed last time.
0
Well what that was Gordon was the whole dimension of the
people who simply said, I am not yet certain how I am
ging to vote. What we did, was we took the people who
said they could change and we questioned 40-50-60 of
them, all the way from Maine to Georgia and we found
very few, who after extensive questioning, indicated that
there is a likelyhood that they will go back.
G: What else is of note?
Not a blessed thing.
G: Really? You are going to come out weekly now, aren't
you? With trial heat results?
We should be coming out even more than weekly, I would
say.
G: Are you going to try to do the interviewing over weekends?
The interviewing, will probably be done on Fridays and
Saturdays for the most part. You got me in sort of a
ticklish position here cause I really don't know that much.
I've been away now for a full week and we didn't want to
keep close touch with the office as far as figures and
schedules were concerned cause we wanted to be sort of
neutral about what we were doing. So, the best I can do is,
I can get this schedule set in my mind by Monday morning
and I will give you a call then.
G: Although if you are going to be out of the office, should
I
If you can't get me in the office, always arange to call me
at home.
4
Don't bother calling and talking to anybody else.
G:
No, I don't.
D
Because, there is a problem.
G:
I understand.
Alec Gallup has now gotten into this thing and just
between us, he is a stickler for secrecy. He's afraid
to tell even his wife, which I think is absolutely,
totally ridiculous.
G:
Well, we maintain the confidentiality - we've never
breached it and SO we --
Our problem Gordon is a little different - we're getting
a ton of flack from the McGovern-Shriver side - they
are releasing all kinds of crazy rumors and you know
SO what's happening is that everytime McGovern and his 16
year-old pollster Caddell come out with a new rumor,
this just hardens everybodys attitudes in the office.
So, I don't know. Let me get your number again.
G:
202/ 456-1414 and the operators have been instructed to
locate me any place- pageboy or whatever, to take your
call. So call me please.
D
Fine! I'll call you probably about 2:00
G:
If you think there will be something close to 60-34
0
Well, that's the way it looked at that time - these were
unweighted, straight off the computer and I never like
to go with them - but that's as close as I can tell you
at this point. It could in fact go back to what it was -
so who knows? That's why I don't like to give it to you.
G:
I understand that but don't ever hesitate to call me and
keep me posted on it because as you can imagine, the interest
around here is pretty tremendous - if I can say that I have been
in touch with Davies -- there are alot of things at stake by
the way.
I don't know what you mean.
G:
Well, there are alot of things at stake in terms of continued
contact with you and so forth - because obviously I am trying to
-- 5 --
hold the lid on here and say, listen the system has been
one of extreme confidentiality --
D
Just as long as you keep banging that home -- one slip
and I'll get a knife put to my jugglar -- and very
honestly, and between the two of us -- I have been
told not to call you.
G:
No, I expected that.
But, I am somewhat more partisan than the rest. You've
got to stick with me if you catch me at the office sometime
and I turn you off like a wet sponge - don't hesitate to
call me back because there is a reason for it ----
G: I understand.
Okay, Gordon
More conversation with
September 30, 1972
John Davies
The present figure is 61-33-6.
G:
Great!
Which is 28 points good compared to 34. Now there
is one thing I can't track down for you but I will
give it to you and the only reason I can't track
it down is because I can't find anybody but the spread
in the wire says "Industrial North is 23 Points."
Now I don't know how Industrial North should be
defined but I'll probably know in an hour or two.
G:
Okay, give me a call if you find out anything else.
I know when we were toying with doing this we thought
about just isolating the interviews in the largest
cities in the North, including Philadelphia, New York,
Detroit, Boston and SO on, and I'm 99% sure that that
is what it is. Just for safety's sake, I will let you
know.
G:
Okay, very good, but the final figures that are going
to be wired to the correspondents are 61-33-6 nationwide.
They are being wired in about an hour.
G: Great! Thanks an awful lot John.
Okay Gordon - you'll hear from me later.
More conversation with
September 30, 1972
John Davies
The present figure is 61-33-6.
G:
Great!
Which is 28 points good compared to 34. Now there
is one thing I can't track down for you but I will
give it to you and the only reason I can't track
it down is because I can't find anybody but the spread
in the wire says "Industrial North is 23 Points."
Now I don't know how Industrial North should be
defined but I'll probably know in an hour or two.
G:
Okay, give me a call if you find out anything else.
I know when we were toying with doing this we thought
about just isolating the interviews in the largest
cities in the North, including Philadelphia, New York,
Detroit, Boston and so on, and I'm 99% sure that that
is what it is. Just for safety's sake, I will let you
know.
G:
Okay, very good, but the final figures that are going
to be wired to the correspondents are 61-33-6 nationwide.
They are being wired in about an hour.
G: Great! Thanks an awful lot John.
Okay Gordon - you'll hear from me later.
no figures -8p - last night.
- MeG thes navowed
a problem
gap ever so slighly
-below l w/in samplery
60 - 34 * dose to t
on 1000 interes
- -try to get 1500
-To office at 12n.
- call bet 2,3, 4,
Pers conferemed
- Extremely strong
- more then weelly w/
among Dem's
- Intere Fri + sat,
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, October 1, 1972
IMPORTANT
Note to Editors:
Because of the great interest as to whether
the gap between McGovern and Nixon in the poll
findings is beginning to close, the lead for
the Sunday release -- with our latest national
results - will be telegraphed to you Saturday
for Sunday release. It will be sent press rate
-pay-wH
westernUn.
collect. Complete breakdowns will follow in
-an/on Telex
machine.
the next report scheduled for early next week.
The results will be based upon interviewing
-Zxegler Westunmen. -permon
conducted through Monday, September 25.
Odie snepler?
250
Zool + Faiber
*
office inEOB, pre-clear w/Wesun.
(Pick up after lead)
The trend in voter preference is revealed by trial heat: results covering
the last six months. McGovern's strongest showing occurred in late April and
early May, following his victories in the Wisconsin and Massachusetts primaries.
At that point he trailed President Nixon by only ten points. Following the
Eagleton affair, however, the gap between the two candidates widened as the
record of Gallup Poll findings indicates:
Nixon
McGovern Undecided
%
%
%
September 22-25
August 26-27
64
30
6
August 5-12
57
31
12
July 28-31
57
32
11
July 14-17
56
37
7
June 16-19
53
37
10
May 26-29
53
34
13
April 28 - May 1
49
39
12
The biggest surprise to date in the presidential contest has been Nixon's
strength among young voters. Early in the race McGovern strategists counted on
winning a large majority of the vote of the nation's 25 million prospective new
voters. In fact, same estimates of this majority were as high as 10 million
votes - enough to overcome the lead of most candidates in presidential cam-
paigns.
The enthusiasm for McGovern on the college campuses of the nation ----------- SO
marked in the early months of 1972 - has faded considerably; and the vote of
those who have never attended college has favored Nixon.
In a special survey of the 18 to 24 year-olds, conducted for Newsweek by
the Gallup Organization, it was found that 59% of those who did not attend-
college had not bothered to register as of late August; while in the case of
those who were enrolled in college or had attended college, 71% were registered.
In the Newsweek study of 18-24 year-olds re-interviews conducted during the
middle of September revealed that McGovern had not been able to register any
gains in this group during the first two weeks of September. Nixon's lead
over McGovern among likely young voters in late August was 50% to 46%, as compared
with 52% to 43% in mid-September.
Young voters who have attended college are more likely to favor McGovern
than those who have not attended college, dividing their vote between the two
candidates: 48% for Nixon, and 48% for McGovern. Among those who have not
attended college, Nixon holds a lead of 54% to 42% for McGovern.
The strong showing of Nixon nationally among new voters results from his
strength in the South, where he leads by the one-sided vote of 70% to 29%.
In the East and Midwest, however, McGovern holds a five to four lead over
Nixon. In the West the two candidates are tied with 48% each among the new
voter group.
Attitudes regarding the handling of the Vietnam war accounts chiefly for
the large number of young voters who favor Nixon. In the Newsweek study Nixon
scores as well as McGovern as the candidate who can better handle the Vietnam
war. The war has been the dominant issue among young voters for the past
few years, and, in fact, has been the chief source of campus disturbances and
the alienation of young people.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Sept. 28, 1972
More Voters See McGovern Than
Nixon With "Credibility Gap'
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
ing himself on every campaign issue -
he is trying to be something for every-
As the above table indicates, non-
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 27 A1-
though McGovern's party strategists
body."
whites are the only major population
have sought to make political capital
One who thinks McGovern is more
group which credits McGovern with
by uscribing a credibility cap to Nixon.
sincere and believable than Nixon is
being more sincere or believable than
the President is seen as "more sincere
a 29-year old architect from Atlanta,
Nixon; they give McGovern a 2-to-1
and believable" than McGovern by a
Ga.: "McGovern has demonstrated that
edge over Nixon on this question.
6-11-2 margin with the nation's voters.
he is not about to be dictated to by the
A total of 1534 adults, 18 and older,
power brokers. He says what he be.
were interviewed in person in this sur-
Eyen among McGovern's own party
Findings, up to this point in the
member many see Nixon as the more
lieves and 1 trust in him."
vey, which was conducted in more than
1972 race, indicate that President
"sincere and believable" of the two
Following is the question asked and
300 scientifically selected localities
Nixon's personal popularity has re-
candidates.
the results:
across the nation during the period of
mained fairly constant in the three
August 24-27.
presidential races in which he has en-
In the case of young voters, 18-20
Which candidate Nixon or Mc-
gaged. In tests to date, Senator Mc.
years on whom McGovern has pinned
Gorern do you think is more sin-
The "Charisma" Scale
Govern does appreciably better than
high Lopes. Nixon wins by a sizable
cere. belicrable?
Nixon not only scores better in the
Goldwater in 1964, but slightly less
margin on this issue.
matter of credibility but he also tops
well than Humphrey in 1968.
Which Candidate More
the South Dakota senator in terms of
^ young Pennsylvania attorney had
Sincere, Believable
personal popularity.
The personal popularity of candi-
this to say about McGovern: "I'm a
Mc-
No
dates in elections since 1952 is reported
Democrat. but I find it difficult to sup-
Nixon Govern Opin.
To measure the personal popularity
below. The figures represent the per-
(sirt McGovern He started out like a
of a candidate, the Gallup Poll em-
NATIONAL
knight on a white charger but he has
59
20
21
centage of those interviewed who give
plays a rating device known as the
since succumbed to the disease which
%
%
%
the candidate the highest positive rat-
62
Stapel Scale.
Whites
17
ing.
onliets most politicians backing down
21
Non-whites
on personal convictions to gain votes."
24
52
24
The Stapel Scale was first employed
1972 Nixon 39.8%-McGovern 23.4
in the election campaign of 1952 to
On the other hand, a middle aged
Under 30
57
28
15
measure the public's enthusiasm for
1968 Nixon 37.5%-Humphrey 28.5
housewife commented: "Nixon has not
30-49 years
61
16.
23
candidates apart from party considera-
1964 Johnson 48.6%-Goldwater 16.2
lived upite anything he ever said so
50 & over
57
19
24
tions and campaign issues.
I might as well take a chance on the
Republicans
85
10
1960 Kennedy 41.6%-Nixon 39.7
5
other guy."
Democrats
This re-point attitude scale provides
38
37
25
a measure of candidate "charisina" and,
1956 Eisenhower 56.7%
A student at an eastern college com-
Nixon backers
85
3
12
significantly, has pointed to the winner
Stevenson 33.8
mented "McG vern changes his opin-
McGovern
in every presidential election of the
1952 Eisenhower 47.2%
Fin W) much he 15 constantly contradict-
backers
6
65
29
last two decades.
Stevenson 37.0
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Monday, Sept. 25, 1972
Judging from Experience Since 1930's
NIXON'S WIDE LEAD OVER McGOVERN COULD VANISH BEFORE ELECTION DAY
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
-15pts
Dewey held a substantial lead one: his
If the "return-to-the-foht" (sctor were
Democratic rival. Harry Truman AL
PRINCETON. N. J. Sept. 24 Poll-
to operate this year. McGovern worki
ing experience gained ID presidential
though the Gallup Pull reported con-
stand to pick up numberable strength
elections since the 1010's indicates first
stant gains for Truman during the CM-
in the closing weeks of this year's can
the present wide lead of Nixon
suing weeks. pelling was discontinued
paign - particularly " view of this
about three weeks before the election
over McGovem in the current presi-
year's record Democrate defection.
dental rece could varish before clec-
on the incurrect assumption that
tion day
delate with a sizable lead lets in the
7pts
"Soft Vate" of Defectors
campaign will maintain the lead. The
Possible McGovern Gain?
This is particularly true when the
election figures strawed Transfer over
Not only does the past mal heat
man trailing 111 the fails is the candi-
taking wey. haveng: gained nine per-
history, as recorded by Gallup surveys,
date of the rity Fatty the Dem-
centage points state early September.
offer evidence that the PP between
party In the final weeks of 3
'Return-to-Fold' Factor
the major party candulates can close.
companya many who have P"
Operates in Many Compaigns
but internal evalence from 2 recent
viously for Pay world we for the
The "returo-to-the-fold" factor oper-
survey gives fuither indication that this
candulate of the upreads party have
ares 171 many presidential compaigns -
could happen in the current race.
second thoughts and return to their
in face it has occured IT' five of the
All Democratic defectors in the sur
habitual voting belower: this 15 des-
cribed 25 the for
cight presidential companyns covered by
vez that is registered waters who
tor. And may and the "don't knows"
the Gallop Pull since 1942 indusive.
describe themelves ** Democrats but
- the 4 who have not made up their
The following table shows the change
corrently prefer Nixon - were asked
meals in th Kkin to their 1,42%
III the rute fir the have candidate he
two questions to Verenme whether
the patient
incen the beginning of the campaign
their change is hand that is, solidly
for Nixen "sold":
Humphrey Far Behind
111 carly Suptember. as recorded in trial
De Early September, To
heats. and the and election returns
Has strongh in you feel about
After the the not of the Personation
in November:
your charge - would your INY you
consention in 19 Hebert Humplex
are about cartain In ship for him.
Change in Vote for ailing
started and C... 14" and Reducard Nivon
or do you think your may change your
Wollow
Candidate Heivern Early
In 111 only Syronha surve Nown
must and note for the other man?
that A 4405 Rad UNIT Humpling.
Sept. & Election
11. 1AM feel the contidate your
Homest Humplay made dramatic
11/1-R (Humpluez) dired in points
was fater world be much better than
value during Other and early N.
MA (Goldwater) and 8 points
the about mail, AT it, your ind that If
unber it's in: the R.sh
1995 (Nive) --enned I point
probably monthin naver - differ-
of Poll and Calls within the pencel
1956 (Sevenson): lest , paints
1952 (Newson) carred } points
cure Gue may or the other who wini?
a P an of winning at placality of the
opotn vote
10;8 (Troman) grand " pounts
Analysis of the resuirs at buth ques
1911 (Dewey) lest 2 points
tions reveals that noughly half of the
In early September of 1978, Thomas
1940 (Willie):- 10 change
vote of Democrate who currently favor
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - September 23, 1972
S - John?
D - Yes.
S - Gordon Strachan.
D - Gordon, how are you?
S - Good. Sorry to bother you at home.
D - No problem. You called just in time. I was just about to leave
for Maine.
S - Oh. How long are you going to be gone?
D - About a week.
S - Oh brother.
D - We're going to Maine and then Detroit and Atlanta. You know, do
some interviewing.
S - Excellent.
D - Get out in the field a little bit.
S - You're in the field this weekend, aren't you?
D - Right.
S - And probable release next Sunday?
D - Uh - let's put it this way. Possible release Sunday. Most probably
Tuesday or Wednesday.
S - Probable release Tuesday or Wednesday?
D - Possibly Sunday; however, I'll tell you the reason. We're not going
to be wiring this one. We're going to be including the full breakdown
SO that it's going to take us two or three days extra to get full
tabulations.
S - I see.
2.
D - So if they decide to go with the national figures only, it will
probably be Sunday. But I don't think they will. Because we
haven't in the last two or three times.
S - So you think it might be as late as Tuesday or Wednesday.
D - Tuesday, Wednesday or maybe even Thursday - if things should become
a problem in the field. But it looks across the country that the
weather is pretty good - so we're all right.
S - OK. Listen I've been asked to deliver a rather stiff message to
you in light of some of the problems that we have had. I began
placing a call to you with requests which I will talk to you about
on the 16th, and it's a week later before I called you at home which
I was very reluctant to do - not wanting to bother you at home.
D - I told you - don't ever hesitate to call me at home.
S - But in light of your new involvement in government polling and if
Gallup's polls are in any way accurate, we're going to be here for
the next four years. And phone calls will go both ways and this
is in the form of an indication that we appreciate having access
to information. We have never violated the confidence of it, but
we need it and we expect to receive it as soon as the information
is available and I would guess that you probably have the regional
tabulating completed Monday afternoon or Tuesday. I would very much
like to receive a call with the information.
D - There shouldn't be any problem with that.
S - Good.
D - You see the problem is that I've been out of the office. The people
around the office other than myself and perhaps one or two others
are extremely reluctant to talk to anyone about it.
3.
S - I appreciate that.
D - That's why. Please don't hesitate to call me at home because we have
some people who get extremely nervous and touchy about this.
S - Sure.
D - And between now and the election I'll probably not be spending much
time at all in the office. However, I will be privy to anything that's
going on. So that's the best bet.
S - OK. Well then I'll do that.
D - And as soon as I hear anything--of course I have been calling you
when there is information. The last week has been an absolute dry
period and there is absolutely nothing to tell you.
S - OK.
D - We haven't gotten anything new. It's been as a matter of fact the
driest period we've had in six months becuase it's been the longest
period between surveys. Four and a quarter weeks which is
Now the trial heats will be coming out every week starting now.
S - All right. Well then will you - especially if you're on the road -
will you call me promptly when you have those results and I assure
you that the confidence will not be violated of the information
as it has not been before.
D - No problem.
S - And we would also like to be
D - To tell you the truth I never thought there was a problem
S - Good, good. I had hoped that was the case. I had hoped that was
your conviction because we have worked very, very hard to try to
consolidate things with just one person here and so forth. Well
then if you'll call me Monday or Tuesday either from Maine as soon
4.
S - as you get those results I would very much appreciate it.
D - Well that won't be before Thursday or Wednesday because if it's
wired for Sunday report it will be - they won't even be final until
Thursday and then they'll be wired. So the closest I could come
would be most likely Thursday morning.
S - OK. Well very good. I'd appreciate a call then. One other suggestion
has been made. You might want to add popularity questions to your
surveys because although the popularity question would not be
releasible information, it is significant to test the question of
whether the President's lead over McGovern in the polls is a result
of his own rise in popularity or whether McGovern's complete collapse.
D - Right.
S - And although the results might be slightly scewed and you wouldn't
want to release it - still it is a valid polling question and something
we've been testing and we're very interested in and would like to
discuss the demographics and so forth with you.
D - Very fine. Will do.
S - All right. And if you get a chance I would sort of like to get
some of the demographics from your last poll. We were very interested
in that August demographics shift as we discussed the last time we
talked.
D - There is no demographics for that poll, Gordon.
S - None?
D - No. Only the ones that were reported in that release which young people,
college educated - I mean the young people, education and I believe
occupation.
5.
S - Very good.
D - OK?
S - OK, John. You'll call me right away then.
D - Sure thing. . You'll probably be getting a call from me on Thursday
morning.
S - Very good.
D - OK, Gordon.
S - Thanks a lot. Bye.
9/16
H
complete Report on Conerass Day
End of
09- -
On offense
20% Mea
w/ Galleep
S
Davies 9/16
509 McG
noretion
s
Davies
9/18
call in
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Bus 1 me te get calls returned
S
Duris
9/20
Phones - both ways
1145
S
Davies
Demogis - never violatere
9/21
mestalle not to take P, pop
3P
S
Aueris
9122
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210
- whe P up or me G deen
will show Rn up,
Pol Tal Paper - men per H
PJB argue In Memo - are
Big as
Food puies - Mex attack Rary t fairts
Dailey re myG G new spots
23
MCGOVERN
BY BROOKS JACKSON
COLUMBUS, OHIO (AP)-TIRED OF BAD NEWS, SEN. GEORGE MCGOVERN
HAS ATTACKED WHAT HE TERMED "NUTTY" PUBLIC-OPINION POLLS AND "LOUSY"
NEWSPAPER COLUMNISTS.
THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE REJECTED MORE EMPHATICALLY
THAN EVER THE FINDINGS OF RECENT POLLS SHOWING HIM FAR BEHIND
PRESIDENT NIXON. "I THINK THE POLLS ARE A LOT OF RUBBISH," HE
SAID TUESDAY. "I DON'T KNOW WHERE THEY CONDUCT THESE POLLS. 8'VE
NEVER TALKED TO AN AMERICAN WHO'S EVER BEEN POLLED, BY EITHER DR.
GALLUP OR HARRIS. I THINK THEY MAKE THESE THINGS UP IN THE BACKROOMS
SOMEWHERE".
AND HE DESCRIBED SOME CONSERVATIVE NEWSPAPER COLUMNISTS, WHOM
HE WOUND'T NAME- AS LOUSY, BITTER, PARANOID, DESPICABLE, OBNOXIOUS
PROPAGANDISTS WHO ARE CONSISTENTLY WRONG AND WHO WRITE NOTHING
GOOD ABOUT ANY CANDIDATE MORE LIBERAL THAN GENGHIS KHAN.
TODAY MCGOVERN MADE TWO NEW PROPOSALS TO INCRESE SOCIAL SECURITY
PAYMENTS, FAVORING FULL BENEFITS FOR WIDOWS AND AN INCREASE IN THE
AMOUNT OF OUTSIDE INCOME PENSIONERS MAY EARN WITHOUT REDUCING
BENEFITS.
HE SPENT THE NIGHT IN THE MANSION OF OHIO GOV. JOHN GILLIGAN. SEN.
EDMUND S. MUSKIE OF MAINE WAS SCHEDULED TO JOIN MCGOVERN AT APPEARANCES
TODAY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PHILADELPHIA
TUESDAY, MCGOVERN TOLD STUDENTS AND FACULTY AT CHICAGO'S LARGEST
ROMAN CATHOLIC SCHOOL THAT HE FAVORS INCOME-TAX CREDITS FOR PARENTS
OF PAROCHIAL-AND PRIVATE-SCHOOL STUDENTS. AND HE DELIVERED
HIS STANDARD POLITICAL TALK TO A RAIN-DAMPENED STREET CROWD IN
MILWAKEE AND AIRPORT-RALLY CROWDS IN FLINT, MICH., AND COLUMBUS.
SR1030AED SEPT 20
24
COLUMBUS-ADD MCGOVERN (23)
"SOME OF THE COLUMNISTS ARE REALLY LOUSY," MCGOVERN SAID. "THEY'RE
so BITTER AND PARANOID ABOUT THE LIBERAL, PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT IN
THIS COUNTRY THAT THEY JUST CAN'T WRITE THE TRUTH, THEY CAN'T
WRITE ANYTHING DECENT ABOUT ANY CANDIDATE WHO ISN'T SOMEBODY WHO IS
TO THE RIGHT OF GENGHIS KHAN."
ALTHOUGH THE RESPONSE WAS PROMPTED BY A QUESTION ABOUT COLUMNISTS
WILLIAM F. BUCKLEY AND JAMES J. KILPATRICK, MCGOVERN TOOK PAINS TO
SAY HE WASN'T TALKING ABOUT THEM. HE WOULDN'T SAY WHICH
COLUMNISTS HAD PROVOKED HIS IRE.
"THERE ARE JUST CERTAIN ONES THAT I FIND PARTICULARLY OBNOXIOUS,"
HE SAID.
THE CANDIDATE SAID HE THINKS THE AMERICAN PRESS IN GENERAL IS
THE BEST IN THE WORLD AND GENERALLY TELLS THE NEWS FAIRLY. "I'M
NOT TRYING TO BUTTER YOU UP. I REALLY MEAN THAT," HE SAID.
KB1035AED SEPT. 20
Davies
24
Levine on 8 a.m. Today news w/film report of Meany at
Steelworkers Conv. where, said Levine, most think Meany made
a mistake in staying neutral. Meany on film saying unions were
not a political party, were not in partnership w/a pol party, and
didn't own or weren't owned by a party. Levine said Meany took
a gamble in attending Las Vegas conv. , hoping to talk steelworkers
from endorsing McG, but no one was giving odds on his success or
failure.
McG would hold Pres. news conferences at least twice a month
and order the Cabinet to do likewise monthly. Additionally, he'd
eliminate backgrounders and open all Cabinet meetings -- except
on natl. security affairs -- to the media.
AP says McG also had some "seemingly bitter" words for the
national public-opinion polls. He said here "we're going to make
those pollsters eat those polls before the election is over
ABC
noted that Gallup, joining other Hill witnesses who don't see opinion
polls creating a bandwagon effect for RN, expects McG will soon
close the gap. He said McG could benefit significantly from
disenchanted Dems who up til now opposed him as "there is always
a return to the fold, " of loyal dems.
O'Brien predicted the election would be "one of the closest in
history" w/Calif's 45 electoral votes the key to victory.
McG campaigners say Herb Klein used "deception and distortion"
in an attempt to frighten voters by saying McG would cause the loss
of 300, 000 aerospace jobs in Calif.
McG charged that RN has turned his back on the UN with actions
in VN, on Rhodesia, and the environment.
An interfaith network called "religious leaders for McG", of
American Religious Leaders has been formed to back McG. A
spokesman emphasized that participants are acting as "individual
citizens, 11 not as spokesmen for their church constituencies, and
that they continue to insist that pulpits and official church channels
not be used for partisan purposes.