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This file contains:
Indecipherable handwritten notes labeled "Phillips." 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Clark MacGregor's scheduled meeting with Dent, Timmons, Anderson, and Teeter to review the local races. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], no date
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Campaign Russia 5 Minute Spot. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/19/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/22. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that reads, "He wants them kept together." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], no date
From Stephen Bull to Haldeman. RE: Key Senate Candidates. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/14/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A detailed schedule of "prominent opportunities" as of September 16. 4 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Campaigns. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Several problems that have arisen concerning the Congressional races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Campaigns. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From William Timmons to Haldeman. RE: Presidential Endorsements. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Comapaigns (copy of the origional). 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Dwight L. Chapin to Stephen B. Bull and David N. Parker. RE: The campaign strategy of helping men in key Senate races by having them meet with the President in his office. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, with attached chart summarizing the 14 marginal races. *Documents repeated throughout. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
Louis Harris Survey. RE: The contests for the White House and for control of Congress. 4 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 9/18/1972
A chart listing the details of the various upcoming senate races. Information includes the likelihood of a victory on a scale of: Safe, probable, marginal, and long shot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE: Senate Campaign-1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/7/1972
A political action memo that reads: "We need to review the question of supplying, or directing financing, to key Senate races." 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/12/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races, and the factual analysis prepared by Dent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Campaign, and the need to work with the Re-Elect Committee's resources. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
A report on "Late News/Miscellany". RE: NBC's Harris Poll results on the approval of the bombing policy, and the report that Democratic seats are in trouble in certain states. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
From Bruce Kehrli to William Timmons. RE: The request for a complete plan for all possible endorsement requests, and challengers in Gubenatorial, House, and Senate races. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: Endorsement of Incumbents. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Mary Ann Allin to Bill Timmons. RE: Endorsement of Congressional Candidates, Part 1: Incumbent Republicans in the House. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
Lists of incumbent Republican Members of the House who have been endorsed by the President. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/1/1972
Unknown sender to Phil. RE: Best wishes for successful re-election campaign for the House of Representatives. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 9/7/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From the President to Haldeman. RE: The need to come up with a plan to help elect Republican Senate and House members. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: The status of the 33 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races, and a list of the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state where a seat is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, and attached are a brief analysis of the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 Governor Races. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races, with the GOP Congressional campaign committee expecting a pickup of 12 to 25 House seats. 20 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Robert H. Marik to Haldeman. RE: Status of the Senate Races. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: A list of all the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state where a seat is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE: The 1972 U.S. Senate Races, and an attached rundown on the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, along with handwritten notes that describe each race with the current estimation of the chances for victory. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 5 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Heading that reads: "P could campaign and help in." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Document Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other], no date
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
From Harry Flemming to Clark MacGregor. RE: Congressional and Gubernatorial Assistance Program. 7 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/29/1972
A report of the Key House Races. Listed are: The Code, State, District, GOP Candidate, Democrat Candidate, and Comments. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 8/16/1972
A report of the 1972 State Legislative Seats. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 20 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: Maximizing the Coattails. 2 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/30/1972
From Harry Dent to The President. RE: 1972 Governor Races. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/3. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
An Evans-Novak Political Report from Evans-Novak to the subscribers. RE: Possible danger for Nixon in his campaign for re-election if he lets himself go. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/6/1972
Indecipherable handwritten note dated 9/7. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
A report entitled: "Campaign Strategy Group Meeting of September 7. 1972." 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/7/1972
A memo listing the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state that is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A memo analysis of the 33 Senate races of 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A memo analyzing the total 1972 campaign, along with an attached summary of Congressional races. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/7/1972
A report listing the Candidates in Marginal Races where the incumbant is now running. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
A report listing the Districts Where no Incumbant is Running in 1972. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26145864
label
WHSF: Contested, 22-3
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145864
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 22-3
description
This file contains:
Indecipherable handwritten notes labeled "Phillips." 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Clark MacGregor's scheduled meeting with Dent, Timmons, Anderson, and Teeter to review the local races. 1 pg. [Subject: Personal] [Memo], no date
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Campaign Russia 5 Minute Spot. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/19/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/22. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that reads, "He wants them kept together." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], no date
From Stephen Bull to Haldeman. RE: Key Senate Candidates. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/14/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A detailed schedule of "prominent opportunities" as of September 16. 4 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Campaigns. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Several problems that have arisen concerning the Congressional races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Campaigns. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/16/1972
From William Timmons to Haldeman. RE: Presidential Endorsements. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: Congressional Comapaigns (copy of the origional). 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/15/1972
From Dwight L. Chapin to Stephen B. Bull and David N. Parker. RE: The campaign strategy of helping men in key Senate races by having them meet with the President in his office. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/3/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, with attached chart summarizing the 14 marginal races. *Documents repeated throughout. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
Louis Harris Survey. RE: The contests for the White House and for control of Congress. 4 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 9/18/1972
A chart listing the details of the various upcoming senate races. Information includes the likelihood of a victory on a scale of: Safe, probable, marginal, and long shot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE: Senate Campaign-1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/7/1972
A political action memo that reads: "We need to review the question of supplying, or directing financing, to key Senate races." 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/12/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races, and the factual analysis prepared by Dent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Campaign, and the need to work with the Re-Elect Committee's resources. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
A report on "Late News/Miscellany". RE: NBC's Harris Poll results on the approval of the bombing policy, and the report that Democratic seats are in trouble in certain states. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
From Bruce Kehrli to William Timmons. RE: The request for a complete plan for all possible endorsement requests, and challengers in Gubenatorial, House, and Senate races. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: Endorsement of Incumbents. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Mary Ann Allin to Bill Timmons. RE: Endorsement of Congressional Candidates, Part 1: Incumbent Republicans in the House. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
Lists of incumbent Republican Members of the House who have been endorsed by the President. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/1/1972
Unknown sender to Phil. RE: Best wishes for successful re-election campaign for the House of Representatives. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 9/7/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From the President to Haldeman. RE: The need to come up with a plan to help elect Republican Senate and House members. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: The status of the 33 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: Senate Races, and a list of the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state where a seat is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, and attached are a brief analysis of the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 Governor Races. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races, with the GOP Congressional campaign committee expecting a pickup of 12 to 25 House seats. 20 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Robert H. Marik to Haldeman. RE: Status of the Senate Races. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: A list of all the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state where a seat is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE: The 1972 U.S. Senate Races, and an attached rundown on the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races, along with handwritten notes that describe each race with the current estimation of the chances for victory. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 5 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE: Heading that reads: "P could campaign and help in." 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Document Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other], no date
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman. RE: '72 Campaign. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
From Harry Flemming to Clark MacGregor. RE: Congressional and Gubernatorial Assistance Program. 7 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/29/1972
A report of the Key House Races. Listed are: The Code, State, District, GOP Candidate, Democrat Candidate, and Comments. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 8/16/1972
A report of the 1972 State Legislative Seats. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 20 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: Maximizing the Coattails. 2 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 8/30/1972
From Harry Dent to The President. RE: 1972 Governor Races. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/10/1972
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/3. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/5/1972
An Evans-Novak Political Report from Evans-Novak to the subscribers. RE: Possible danger for Nixon in his campaign for re-election if he lets himself go. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/6/1972
Indecipherable handwritten note dated 9/7. 3 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
A report entitled: "Campaign Strategy Group Meeting of September 7. 1972." 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/7/1972
A memo listing the candidates for the U.S. Senate in every state that is up for election. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A memo analysis of the 33 Senate races of 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/4/1972
A memo analyzing the total 1972 campaign, along with an attached summary of Congressional races. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/7/1972
A report listing the Candidates in Marginal Races where the incumbant is now running. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
A report listing the Districts Where no Incumbant is Running in 1972. 8 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes labeled
"Phillips." 2 pgs.
22
3
Personal
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Clark MacGregor's scheduled meeting with
Dent, Timmons, Anderson, and Teeter to
review the local races. 1 pg.
22
3
9/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE:
Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4
pgs.
22
3
9/19/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Campaign Russia 5 Minute Spot. 1 pg.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 1 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/22.
2 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Memo
From L. Higby to GS. RE: Message that
reads, "He wants them kept together." 1 pg.
22
3
9/14/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Stephen Bull to Haldeman. RE: Key
Senate Candidates. 2 pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs.
22
3
Domestic Policy
Other Document
A detailed schedule of "prominent
opportunities" as of September 16. 4 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 2 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE:
Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana. 4
pgs.
22
3
9/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Congressional Campaigns. 4 pgs.
22
3
9/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Several problems that have arisen concerning
the Congressional races. 4 pgs.
22
3
9/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Congressional Campaigns. 3 pgs.
22
3
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From William Timmons to Haldeman. RE:
Presidential Endorsements. 3 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 3 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/15/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
Congressional Comapaigns (copy of the
origional). 6 pgs.
22
3
9/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dwight L. Chapin to Stephen B. Bull
and David N. Parker. RE: The campaign
strategy of helping men in key Senate races
by having them meet with the President in his
office. 1 pg.
22
3
9/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Senate Races, with attached chart
summarizing the 14 marginal races.
*Documents repeated throughout. 4 pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Senate Races. 10 pgs.
22
3
9/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 4 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs.
22
3
9/18/1972
Domestic Policy
Other Document
Louis Harris Survey. RE: The contests for
the White House and for control of Congress.
4 pgs.
22
3
Campaign
Other Document
A chart listing the details of the various
upcoming senate races. Information includes
the likelihood of a victory on a scale of: Safe,
probable, marginal, and long shot. 1 pg.
22
3
9/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Charlie McWhorter to Haldeman. RE:
Senate Campaign-1972. 1 pg.
22
3
9/12/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
A political action memo that reads: "We
need to review the question of supplying, or
directing financing, to key Senate races." 1
pg.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 5 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races, and the
factual analysis prepared by Dent. 1 pg.
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman.
RE: '72 Campaign, and the need to work with
the Re-Elect Committee's resources. 1 pg.
22
3
Domestic Policy
Other Document
A report on "Late News/Miscellany". RE:
NBC's Harris Poll results on the approval of
the bombing policy, and the report that
Democratic seats are in trouble in certain
states. 1 pg.
22
3
9/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg.
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 6 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/6/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Bruce Kehrli to William Timmons.
RE: The request for a complete plan for all
possible endorsement requests, and
challengers in Gubenatorial, House, and
Senate races. 1 pg.
22
3
9/6/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman.
RE: Endorsement of Incumbents. 1 pg.
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Mary Ann Allin to Bill Timmons. RE:
Endorsement of Congressional Candidates,
Part 1: Incumbent Republicans in the House.
1 pg.
22
3
9/1/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Lists of incumbent Republican Members of
the House who have been endorsed by the
President. 2 pgs.
22
3
9/7/1972
Campaign
Letter
Unknown sender to Phil. RE: Best wishes for
successful re-election campaign for the
House of Representatives. 1 pg.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 7 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg.
22
3
9/4/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From the President to Haldeman. RE: The
need to come up with a plan to help elect
Republican Senate and House members. 3
pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
The status of the 33 U.S. Senate Races. 10
pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: Senate
Races, and a list of the candidates for the
U.S. Senate in every state where a seat is up
for election. 6 pgs.
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
U.S. Senate Races, and attached are a brief
analysis of the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 8 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
Governor Races. 5 pgs.
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
U.S. Congressional Races, with the GOP
Congressional campaign committee
expecting a pickup of 12 to 25 House seats.
20 pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert H. Marik to Haldeman. RE:
Status of the Senate Races. 3 pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert Marik to Haldeman. RE: A list
of all the candidates for the U.S. Senate in
every state where a seat is up for election. 6
pgs.
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE:
The 1972 U.S. Senate Races, and an attached
rundown on the 33 U.S. Senate races. 7 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 9 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Senate Races, along with
handwritten notes that describe each race
with the current estimation of the chances for
victory. 4 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 5 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note. RE:
Heading that reads: "P could campaign and
help in." 1 pg.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 3 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 10 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note. 1 pg.
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From William E. Timmons to Haldeman.
RE: '72 Campaign. 1 pg.
22
3
8/29/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Harry Flemming to Clark MacGregor.
RE: Congressional and Gubernatorial
Assistance Program. 7 pgs.
22
3
8/16/1972
Campaign
Report
A report of the Key House Races. Listed are:
The Code, State, District, GOP Candidate,
Democrat Candidate, and Comments. 12 pgs.
22
3
Campaign
Report
A report of the 1972 State Legislative Seats.
2 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 11 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to The President. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 20 pgs.
22
3
8/30/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE:
Maximizing the Coattails. 2 pgs.
22
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry Dent to The President. RE: 1972
Governor Races. 5 pgs.
22
3
>
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes dated 9/3.
2 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten notes. 1 pg.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 12 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to Haldeman. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 1 pg.
22
3
9/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry Dent to Haldeman. RE: 1972
U.S. Congressional Races. 14 pgs.
22
3
9/6/1972
Campaign
Report
An Evans-Novak Political Report from
Evans-Novak to the subscribers. RE:
Possible danger for Nixon in his campaign
for re-election if he lets himself go. 4 pgs.
22
3
White House Staff
Other Document
Indecipherable handwritten note dated 9/7. 3
pgs.
22
3
9/7/1972
Campaign
Report
A report entitled: "Campaign Strategy Group
Meeting of September 7. 1972." 3 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 13 of 14
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
A memo listing the candidates for the U.S.
Senate in every state that is up for election. 6
pgs.
22
3
9/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
A memo analysis of the 33 Senate races of
1972. 3 pgs.
22
3
9/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
A memo analyzing the total 1972 campaign,
along with an attached summary of
Congressional races. 3 pgs.
22
3
Campaign
Report
A report listing the Candidates in Marginal
Races where the incumbant is now running. 6
pgs.
22
3
Campaign
Report
A report listing the Districts Where no
Incumbant is Running in 1972. 8 pgs.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Page 14 of 14
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
9/19
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Clark MacGregor has scheduled
a meeting on Friday, September
22 with Dent, Timmons, Anderson
and Teeter to review local
races. I will attend the
meeting and report to you.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana
Alabama
Red Blount is in an uphill battle, but shows good signs of
closing the gap. Al Fox*, political editor of The Birmingham
News, says the Sparkman people have been terribly quiet about
poll data, but that he managed to worm some figures out of a
Sparkman aide. The data comes from an Oliver Quayle poll of
about three weeks ago, showing Sparkman ahead with 56%. This
worries the Sparkman people, because:
1. Given his incumbency and the fact he has been
campaigning hard, the gap should be wider.
2. No accurate assessment was made on a black
candidate who has just started campaigning under
the banner of a black-white liberal Democrat
faction called the National Democrat Party of
Alabama. Sparkman concedes the black's candidacy
will cut into his vote.
3. Quayle picked Sparkman to win the Democrat
primary by 54%. He wound up with about 50%.
Wallace remains quiet. Everyone is holding their breath,
since a Wallace endorsement would be the magic Sparkman needs
right now. The Wallace people have been calling about a
$45 million highway fund they think the Administration is
*Fox has just done a poll of newspaper editors in the ten
deep south states, having a total of 101 electoral votes.
The President wins by 100%.
Page Two
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
holding up, and have dropped hints that the outcome on this
could have some impact on the Blount race - though they won't
define specifics. Wallace has the impression the President
made a commitment on the funds. My office is working on this.
Mrs. Sage Lyons, wife of the Wallace-picked Speaker of the
Alabama House, is working for Blount. Pro-Blount interest
has also been expressed by former Wallace campaign pro-
fessionals now working with the Connally organization.
Blount has made much of the "McGovern-Sparkman"ticket,
leading Sparkman to deny support of McGovern in a recent
television shot. Now Sparkman is trying to take advantage
of the RN coattails. A bumper sticker supposedly put on in
Alabama this week reads: "The best of the Two-Party System:
Nixon/Sparkman.'
On balance, this race at present is about even, and may be
won by a small margin. The two most significant factors,
short of a Wallace endorsement for either candidate, seem
to be:
1. The President's coattails. Definitely Blount's
major advantage.
2. The black candidate. The NDPA is no fly-by-
night entity, having been born and having ballot
position in Alabama in 1968. Their candidate is
a Mobile man by the name of LeFlore, a long-time
civil rights activist. There is some suggestion the
McGovernites may have helped orchestrate this because
they would like to see Proxmire chairman of the
Banking Committee. But a strong vote for LeFlore
would be to Blount's advantage. The NDPA got more
than 10% in 1970, and that much from Sparkman could
help this time.
Page Three
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
Surprisingly, Jimmy Allison - Blount's campaign manager -
says one of their big problems at the moment is money.
Louisiana
Optimism is running pretty low for the candidacy of the GOP's
Senate nominee Ben Toledano. This is primarily because some
of the flukes it would take to put Toledano in just aren't
happening.
A Toledano victory has been envisioned through the following
means: Former Governor John McKeithen gets in as an inde-
pendent, and so does a black. Between them, the two
independents siphon off enough votes from Ben Johnston,
the Democrat nominee, to throw the election to Toledano.
But, though McKeithen will get on the ballot, he's not
there yet. And it looks highly unlikely that a black will
get on. The reason lies in Louisiana law: An independent
candidate must file a petition signed by 1,000 registered
independent voters. There are only 12,000 such folk in the
whole state, and estimates are that 5,000 are dead or have
moved. McKeithen has been paying his volunteers $5 a name.
Toledano has a serious name-recognition factor. According
to a poll taken by Dave Treen, who was considering the
Senate race, Toledano had a 26% recognition factor state-
wide, concentrated mainly in New Orleans, Toledano's home.
Estimate is that it would take $350,000 to overcome that
problem.
Toledano's plusses are that he is a good campaigner, and,
being a resident of southern Louisiana, can play the same
theme that gave Edwards the gubernatorial victory: It's
Page Four
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
time south Louisiana had a Senator. Since 60% of the
population is in the south, that could help. McKeithen
and Johnston both hail from the north, the traditional
source of GOP strength in Louisiana.
McKeithen has indicated he might switch to GOP when and if
elected. But publicly, he is playing theme that he would
go to Senate as independent and demand a price for Louisiana
for the right vote.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 19, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Campaign Russia
5 Minute Spot
You reviewed the Russia 5 Minute Spot last
Thursday, September 14, when you saw the
Connally 5 Minute Spots. In Peter Dailey's
meeting with the President and you on Friday,
September 15, the subject of the Russia 5
and 1 minute spots was raised but Dailey does not
know what decision was reached. Dailey decided
on his own to drop the basketball sequence in
light of the Olympics.
The attached September 14 Action Memorandum
indicates some specific changes. Also, the
Tanya reference been from the
Drug Speech. What?
What specifically should Dailey do to the
Russia 5 and 1 minute
I'll spots? him
Sen. mty
9/22
Flemming Ga - Fielel Report
RI
nm
ala
ha, ment 0.00a, n.c?
9/30-mcKedlon
'all media
deadline
needs $
might drop
B.T.- ala - Red in real trouble
Poll - Sparaman slipped.
HF allison - soys Gurney's poll werse
than Reds
HF G wal
Red, GC not support Spark
Comp aids aiding G U
mac G- goal to get list of
50 House seats - ineum + other
Pa tayets of Surro, etc.
B T - Griffin -some $ prol
mich a P trip poss
S.D. - Hirsh - needs $ crucial
need $100, 000- - 75.to Sea + lack 15in ww
TX - Town - needs another P-hip
me cause - 25,000 would buy Idaho race
RI - Orapee - needs comp manage
n.m.- Domenici - needs Ptrip
Thed closely
S to
Veep gorng to SD + would deas
helpful as P.
H.F.
-S.D. om B drealing
Olla - needs Pt VP trip Bartlett
- # OK
Ga- - Thompaon needs p contact
during atl visit
- veep considering so Ga event
best organized + trun
n.c.- - Helms - S going deen the
Pair on
I SI lady -to moderate
- UP will be in today
Adms image
Goldevoter, Buckley
Talt approachedy + -cliff White
in pushing to Center
BT - can't push manage types in
two late; consaltanships OK.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date
TO: MS
FROM:
L. HIGBY
lte wents there
kept together
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 14, 1972
3:00 p.m.
MEMORANDUM FOR: H.' R.' HALDEMAN
VIA:
DWIGHT L. CHAPING
FROM:
STEPHEN BULL
RE:
Key Senate Candidates
You asked that a plan be developed for bringing key Senate candidates
into the White House. The basic idea that was suggested by you was
to set up one day per candidate where he (or she) would come in,
meet and be briefed by a number of people, and then meet with the
President for 30-40 minutes.
I discussed the matter with Bill Timmons who feels that it is a great
idea but offered the observation that realistically he doubts whether
the President or his staff can spare enough separate days for all of
the candidates. Therefore, the recommendation is offered that one day
be set aside where all of the candidates are brought in and receive
briefings. Although we lose the individual flavor whereby, for example,
Domenici would be discussing something of particular importance to
New Mexico, the candidates would be given a broad spectrum briefing on
many domestic issues which would bring them in tune with the White House.
At the conclusion of the day we would schedule a film session for each of
the candidates with the President, but would announce to the Press that
these individual candidates are meeting with the President and other staff
members throughout the day.
Gordon Strachan gave me what he referred to as a "rough cut" of what
Teeter has determined to be those Republican candidates with a decent
chance of winning. This list, according to Gordon, will probably be cut
in half by the end of September, which is to say by the time we get around
to scheduling the briefing. The list of 15 candidates from the rough cut
is as follows:
%
12
- 2 -
? Va
Alasha
TAlabama -
Blount
Georgia -
Thompson
are
Colo
Idaho-
McClure
? NH
Dal
Kentucky -
Nunn
Louisiana -
Toledano
WVa
see
Maine =
Smith
minn-
da.
Michigan,-
Griffin
+
Montana -
miss
NJ
Hibbard
New Mexico -
Domenici
SC
+N. -N. Carolina -
Helms
Tenn
Oklahoma -
Bartlett
Oregon -
Hatfield
cryo.
+
RhodeIsland -
Chaffee
Kans -
So. Dakota -
Hirsch ?
mass
Texas -
Tower
Nebr
The briefings that would be set up are as follows:
John Ehrlichman - domestic economy
Henry Kissinger - national security
Charles Colson - attack issues
William Timmons legislation
Dwight Chapin possible scheduling opportunities
Harry Dent - politics
It is proposed that the Roosevelt Room be set aside the entire day
for these briefings.
General concept of plan:
Approve
Disapprove H.
CC:
D. Parker
fold
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT :
1972 U.S. Senate Races
This memorandum briefly describes the status of the 33 U.S. Senate
races. The attachment describes each race with the current estimation
of the chances for victory by Clark MacGregor (CM), Harry Dent (D),
Fred Malek (FM), Bill Timmons (BT), and Robert Marik (RM), along.
with Bob Teeter (T). The comments by MacGregor, Dent, Timmons,
Teeter, and Malek's Field Operation are given below for the 18 swing
states:
/
Alabama
16.
Dent believes Blount could win because of the straight party ticket
voting. Also, a black is entering the race. This will pull votes from
Sparkman.
Teeter says Blount is moving up in the polls and is now within
10-15%, up substantially from the Wave II polls.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists Alabama as 5th in its
6 priority races (Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Carolina,
Alabama, and Montana). In each of these races they will give the
Republican candidate $70 - 75,000. Dent says they are asking 1701
for an additional $500, 000 to distribute between September 15 and 30.
2Georgia
Dent says Fletcher Thompson is coming up but would have had a
better chance against Gambrell. Maddox's blast at McGovern helped
the President and Thompson. The President's coattails and personal
identification with Thompson would be very helpful.
2
Teeter indicates there are no polls available. He knows
Thompson personally and characterizes him as an "opportunist"
and "free spirit".
MacGregor and Malek concur in this assessment of Thompson
(opportunist). They urge money and organizational support for
Thompson.
Timmons says Thompson is a long shot but possible.
Idaho
Dent says the race is closer than previously believed. The
President could really help with personal identification.
MacGregor and Malek say there are still party wounds from the
tough primary. Teeter concurs. All indicate McClure needs money
and organizational help.
Timmons believes McClure should win.
L
4
Kentucky
Dent urges more Presidential identification with Nunn, who
should win.
Teeter reports Nunn is moving up in recent polls.
MacGregor says the field organization is good, but Malek says
Nunn needs money. There is some question about a possible commit-
ment of money made by Mitchell to get Nunn to run.
Timmons says Nunn is a winner.
Louisiana
Dent reports that the Republican candidate, Ben Toledano, could
have a chance in the three-and possibly four-way race. Bennett
Johnson is the conservative Democratic candidate. Ex-Governor
McKeithan, who is running as an Independent will split the Demo-
cratic vote. McKeithan is also urging a black to run to pull votes
from Johnston.
3
Maino
6
Teeter urges a non-political trip by the President to show his
support of Smith as a national figure. She needs no money.
7
Michigan
Dent believes this is very close though he sees Griffin with a
slight edge.
Teeter says the polls have had Griffin ahead and behind twice
in the last year. Busing may fade some by November. Teeter
urges Administration assistance in the form of grants or projects,
especially in the Detroit tri-county area,
MacGregor says Griffin needs money and Administration assistance.
Malek indicates that all telephone and door-to-door canvassing is
done jointly by the President and Griffin's campaign organizations,
Montana
Dent says Hibbard has a better chance than previously thought.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Montana listed 6th. A
Presidential sweep could pull Hibbard in.
Teeter says there are no polls available. Metcalf is well liked
in Montana.
Malek says Hibbard is a poor candidate with a poor organization.
9
New Mexico
Dent gives Domenici a 50/50 chance.
Teeter says Domenici needs money.
Malek reports that neither the President's nor Domenici's organizations
are very strong. Domenici needs money and organizational support.
Timmons says Domenici has a good chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists New Mexico 2nd in
its list of 6 top priority seats.
4
North Carolina
Dent says Helms has a 50/50 chance but badly needs identification
with the President.
Teeter's month old data indicates Helms is behind in spite of the
President's huge lead.
MacGregor and Malek indicate Helms needs money but organiza-
tional help more.
Timmons believes Helms is a good possibility.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has North Carolina fourth.
Oklahoma
Dent says Bartlett really needs identification with the President.
Bellmon's gratuitous slap at Bartlett recently didn't help.
Teeter urges a Presidential visit because Bartlett needs the
identification and the President is so far ahead there is little risk.
Malek reports Bartlett has real organizational problems.
Timmons says Bartlett has a fighting chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Oklahoma 3rd.
/ Loregon
Dent says Hatfield should win because McCall is still staying out.
Teeter says the race is very close because Hatfield's approval
rating is so low (35% by Republicans). McCall is very popular (65%
by Republicans) and should be encouraged to help Hatfield.
Malek says Hatfield has no money problems but the 1701 and
Hatfield organizations are not helping each other to the degree that
they should.
Timmons says Hatfield will win.
5
B
Rhode Island
Dent says this is our best chance for a Democratic seat, but
he wonders whether Chafee will vote with the President.
Teeter says the race is closer than most believe, and Chafee's
lead is the "softest" in the country.
Malek says money is not a problem but needs organizational help.
Chafee has been "playing anti-Nixon games" so far.
Timmons says Chafee is a winner.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Rhode Island at the
top of their list of six.
14 South Dakota
Dent believes this should be our #1 defensive battle. Hirsch is
coming on strong and would totally support the President. Abourezk
is identified too closely with McGovern.
Teeter says Hirsch was way behind but since Abourezk is so
close to McGovern, Hirsch has a chance.
Malek urges money for Hirsch but no Presidential visit,
Timmons says Hirsch is a sure loser.
15
Texas
Dent says this should be our #2 defensive battle.
Teeter believes Tower will win, because the President is 80 strong.
Malek says money is no problem and the organizational problems are
resolving themselves. 1701 and Tower are working their telephone
campaigns together.
16 Virginia
Dent says Scott could only win if the President won by a landslide.
Even Harry Byrd doesn't like Scott. Scott would vote with the President
if elected.
6
Malek urges some money for organizational help but suggests
that Scott be kept off the road and that there be no Presidential visit.
The possibility of sending Cliff White into Virginia was raised.
Timmons says Virginia is a long shot.
To summarize, the President should visit Texas and Oklahoma.
In the other states, money and behind the scenes organizational help
should be given.
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Alabama D
Blount (R)
D
RM, FM
Sparkman (D)
CM, T
Alaska R
Stevens (R)
RM, CM, T
D, FM
Guess (D)
Arkansas D Babbitt (R)
T, D, RM,
McClellan (D)
FM, CM
Colorado R
Allott (R)
RM, CM,
(Democrat
FM, D, T
Primary 9/12)
Delaware R. Boggs (R)
RM, CM,
Biden (D)
FM, D, T
? Georgia D
Thompson (R)
RM, CM,
Nunn (D) it Cambrell
FM, D, T
2 Idaho
D
McClure (R)
D, BT
RM, CM,
Davis (D) fordan
FM, T
Illinois Rr
Percy (R)
RM, CM,
D
Pucinski (D)
FM, T
Iowa
R
Miller (R)
T, RM, CM,
Clark (D)
FM, D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Kansas
Rr
Pearson (R)
T, CM, FM
RM
Tetzlaff (D)
D
Kentucky
R
Nunn (R) Cooper BT
RM, D
CM, FM
T
Huddleston (D)
,LouisianaD
Toledano (R)
D
RM, CM
T
Johnston (D) Ellender
FM
McKeithan (I)
Maine RV
Smith (R)
FM, BT, D
T, RM, CM
Hathaway (D)
Mass. RV
Brooke (R)
I, CM, FM
(Democratic
RM, D, BT
Primary 9/19)
-sv
Michigan
R
Griffin (R)
T, RM,
Kelley (D)
CM, FM
D
Minnesota D Hansen (R)
T, CM,
D
Mondale (D)
FM, RM
BT
Mississippi
D
Carmichael (R)
RM, FM,
Eastland (D)
CM, T, D
?
Montana
D
Hibbard (R)
D
T, RM,
Metcalf (D)
CM, FM
Nebraska
R
Curtis (R)
T, RM, CM
FM
Carpenter (D)
D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
?
N.H. D
(Republican
FM
T, RM, CM
D
Primary 9/12)
McIntyre (D)
N:J. R Case (R)
T, CM, FM,
Krebs (D)
RM, D, BT
?
New Mexico D Domenici (R)
RM, D, BT
T, CM, FM
Daniels (D) anderson
?
N. C. D
Helms (R)
RM, CM.
T
Galifianakis (D) Jorcean
FM, D, BT
?
Oklahoma D
Bartlett (R)
RM, CM,
T
Edmondson (D) Harris
FM, D, BT
Oragon R.V Hatfield (R)
BT
RM, CM,
T, D.
Morse (D)
FM
+X Rhode Island D Chafee (R)
BT
T, RM, CM,
Pell (D)
FM, D
S. Carolina R Thurmond (R)
T, RM,
Ziegler (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
?s. Dakota R Hirsch (R) mundt
T, CM,
RM, D
Abourezk (D)
FM
Tennessee Rv Baker (R)
T, RM,
Blanton (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Texas RV.
Tower (R)
T
CM, FM,
Sanders (D)
RM, D
1
T, RM,
Virginia
Scott (R)
CM, FM
Spong (D)
D, BT
T, RM,
W. Virginia D/Leonard (R)
CM, FM
Randolph (D)
D
Wyoming RV Hansen (R)
T, FM,
RM
Vinich (D)
CM, D
PROMINENT SCHEDULE OPPORTUNITIES
(As of September 16)
Sept. 17-21
International City Management Association
Minneapolis
V.P. (19th)
Weinberger
Sept. 18
Citizenship Day
Chicago
Mrs. N.
Sept. 18-22
United Steelworkers of America, AFL-CIO
Las Vegas
Hodgson (20th)
Sept. 18-19
Yellowstone Centennial
Yellowstone
Mrs. N. (19th)
Park
Morton
Sept. 20
Young Presidents Organization
Wash., DC
Cong. Wilson
Sept. 20-23
Retired Officers of America
Anaheim, Calif.
Coffin (20th)
Moorer (22nd)
Sept. 21-23
U. S. Attorneys Conference
Myrtle Beach,
Kleindienst
S. Carolina
(21st to 23rd)
Sept. 21
Natl. Conference on Agri. Exports
Chicago
Butz
- 2 -
Sept. 21
National Retail Merchants Association
Wash. DC
Hodgson (21st)
Sept. 22
National Federation of Womens Clubs
L. Ang eles
Banuelos
Sept. 22
National Farm Power Show
Algona, Iowa
Sept. 24-27
Natl. Assoc. of Retired Federal Employees
Ft. Worth
V.P. (26th)
Flemming (24th)
Kleindienst (25th)
Sept. 24-25
Natl. Defense Transportation Association
San Antonio
V.P. (25th)
Sept. 26
Federal Bar Association
L. Angeles
Kleindienst
Sept. 24-28
American Transit Assoc. Annual Meeting
Seattle
Volpe
Sept. 25-29
State Bar of California Annual Meeting
Monterey, Cal.
Reagan (27th)
Sept. 25-28
American Academy of General Practice
N. Y. City
Richardson
Sept. 26-28
Farm Progress Show
Galesburg, Ill.
V.P.
Butz (27th)
- 3 -
Sept. 28
Council on Foreign Relations
N. Y. City
Rogers
Oct. 3-6
National Business League
Dallas
Hooks
Oct. 7-13
International Narcotics Conference
N. Orleans
Ambrose
Oct. 10-13
National Future Farmers of America Conv.
K. City, Mo.
RN?
Butz (12th)
Oct. 13-19
Natl. Assoc. of Mutual Insurance Agents
N. Y. City
Volpe (17th)
Oct. 15
Annual Pulaski Parade
Buffalo, N.Y.
V.P. ?
Kemp
Oct. 16
Natl. Savings and Loan League Convention
L. Angeles
Finch
Oct. 17
Int. Association of Chiefs of Police
Salt Lake City
Kleindienst
Romney
Oct. 18-20
World Trade Conference
Williamsburg,
Eberle
Virginia
- 4 -
Oct. 22-25
National Association of Food Chains
Miami Beach
Peterson (23rd)
:
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
American Dental Association
San Francisco
Dunn (27th)
Reagan (29th)
Oct. 29-Nov. 2
Pennsylvania Student Nurse Association
Philadelphia
Knauer (Nov. 1)
Oct. 30-Nov. 2
National Safety Congress and Exposition
Chicago
Ford (Nov. 1)
Nov. 2-4
Associated Collegiate Press
N. Y. City
Klein (2nd)
Ambrose (3rd)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
Senate Races in Alabama and Louisiana
Alabama
Red Blount is in an uphill battle, but shows good signs of
closing the gap. Al Fox*, political editor of The Birmingham
News, says the Sparkman people have been terribly quiet about
poll data, but that he managed to worm some figures out of a
Sparkman aide. The data comes from an Oliver Quayle poll of
about three weeks ago, showing Sparkman ahead with 56%. This
worries the Sparkman people, because:
1. Given his incumbency and the fact he has been
campaigning hard, the gap should be wider.
2. No accurate assessment was made on a black
candidate who has just started campaigning under
the banner of a black-white liberal Democrat
faction called the National Democrat Party of
Alabama. Sparkman concedes the black's candidacy
will cut into his vote.
3. Quayle picked Sparkman to win the Democrat
primary by 54%. He wound up with about 50%.
Wallace remains quiet. Everyone is holding their breath,
since a Wallace endorsement would be the magic Sparkman needs
right now. The Wallace people have been calling about a
$45 million highway fund they think the Administration is
*Fox has just done a poll of newspaper editors in the ten
deep south states, having a total of 101 electoral votes.
The President wins by 100%.
Page Two
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
holding up, and have dropped hints that the outcome on this
could have some impact on the Blount race - though they won't
define specifics. Wallace has the impression the President
made a commitment on the funds. My office is working on this.
Mrs. Sage Lyons, wife of the Wallace-picked Speaker of the
Alabama House, is working for Blount. Pro-Blount interest
has also been expressed by former Wallace campaign pro-
fessionals now working with the Connally organization.
Blount has made much of the "McGovern-Sparkman"ticket,
leading Sparkman to deny support of McGovern in a recent
television shot. Now Sparkman is trying to take advantage
of the RN coattails. A bumper sticker supposedly put on in
Alabama this week reads: "The best of the Two-Party System:
Nixon/Sparkman.
On balance, this race at present is about even, and may be
won by a small margin. The two most significant factors,
short of a Wallace endorsement for either candidate, seem
to be:
1. The President's coattails. Definitely Blount's
major advantage.
2. The black candidate. The NDPA is no fly-by-
night entity, having been born and having ballot
position in Alabama in 1968. Their candidate is
a Mobile man by the name of LeFlore, a long-time
civil rights activist. There is some suggestion the
McGovernites may have helped orchestrate this because
they would like to see Proxmire chairman of the
Banking Committee. But a strong vote for LeFlore
would be to Blount's advantage. The NDPA got more
than 10% in 1970, and that much from Sparkman could
help this time.
Page Three
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
Surprisingly, Jimmy Allison - Blount's campaign manager -
says one of their big problems at the moment is money.
Louisiana
Optimism is running pretty low for the candidacy of the GOP's
Senate nominee Ben Toledano. This is primarily because some
of the flukes it would take to put Toledano in just aren't
happening.
A Toledano victory has been envisioned through the following
means: Former Governor John McKeithen gets in as an inde-
pendent, and so does a black. Between them, the two
independents siphon off enough votes from Ben Johnston,
the Democrat nominee, to throw the election to Toledano.
But, though McKeithen will get on the ballot, he's not
there yet. And it looks highly unlikely that a black will
get on. The reason lies in Louisiana law: An independent
candidate must file a petition signed by 1,000 registered
independent voters. There are only 12,000 such folk in the
whole state, and estimates are that 5,000 are dead or have
moved. McKeithen has been paying his volunteers $5 a name.
Toledano has a serious name-recognition factor. According
to a poll taken by Dave Treen, who was considering the
Senate race, Toledano had a 26% recognition factor state-
wide, concentrated mainly in New Orleans, Toledano's home.
Estimate is that it would take $350,000 to overcome that
problem.
Toledano's plusses are that he is a good campaigner, and,
being a resident of southern Louisiana, can play the same
theme that gave Edwards the gubernatorial victory: It's
Page Four
H. R. Haldeman
September 18, 1972
time south Louisiana had a Senator. Since 60% of the
population is in the south, that could help. McKeithen
and Johnston both hail from the north, the traditional
source of GOP strength in Louisiana.
McKeithen has indicated he might switch to GOP when and if
elected. But publicly, he is playing theme that he would
go to Senate as independent and demand a price for Louisiana
for the right vote.
THE WHITE HOUSE
1000
WASHINGTON
September 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have
arisen while compiling data on Congressional races.
You would probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor
the recommended solution.
1. In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the
Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has
attempted to formulate a list of key races through
a process of checking with Congressional leaders
like Ford and Wilson, reviewing outside data such
as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry Political
Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current number
of target districts is 115. The process in the past
has been very complex and resistant to changes
during the campaign. The process has not been
effective according to Timmons and Anderson.
2. In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark
MacGregor indicated a strong desire to rely heavily
on the opinions of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional
Campaign Committee because they badly want a Republican
House.
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who are assigned the
task at 1701 of pulling together data on the House
and Senate races, argue strongly that it doesn't
make sense to rely entirely on these Hill sources.
They propose instead an internal committee which
would analyze all available sources, but would
be independent and flexible and be in a position to
make judgements on various races on the basis of what
is best for the President. Attached at Tab A are
several examples of how the polling data and field
reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information available to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
-- 2 --
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small
working committee at the White House to undertake
the basic analysis of House races. They recommend
that Bill Timmons be the senior member of this
committee; others included would be Ehrlichman,
Dent and Dick Cook. Timmons role would not be
a visible one. This group would rely heavily on
available polling data and on detailed field reports
from 1701, then analyze the individual races and make
recommendations on each race as to Presidential,
White House and campaign involvement.
mac- T- Dent
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
mac w/ set it up
DISCUSS
Put Chalishman in change ofthi whole project
L
Attached at Tab B is a list of Congressional seats which,
if won by the GOP, would result in a net gain. Anderson
and Timmons concur with Dent's list of 10 incumbents
that need defensive help.
Congressional
GOP
Democrat
Polling
Field
Campaign
Race
Candidate
Candidate
Results
Survey
Committee
Calif. 11th
Chase
Ryan
-25
1 in 20
target
Calif. 34th
Ratterree
Hanna
-25
no chance
target
Conn.
1st
Rittenband
Cotter
-
little
target
chance
Ind.
4th
Bloom
Roush
-28
poor
target
Kans.
2nd
McAtee
Roy
-35
poor
target
Mich.
18th
Huber
Montgomery
-15
poor
target
(Anti-Nixon
Rep.)
Wyom.
AL
Kidd
Roncalio
-13
-
target
GOP HOUSE GAINS
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENTS
Arizona
4
Conlin
Grossman
even
California
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
good
California
38
Snider
Brown
even
California
42
Burgener
Lowe
even
Colorado
4
Johnson
Menson
even
Colorado
5
Armstrong
Johnson
good
Connecticut
5
Sarasin
Monagan
good
Florida
5
Runoff
Gunter
good
Florida
10
Bafalis
Runoff
good
Illinois
3
Hanrahan
Coman
good
Illinois
10
Young
Mikva
even
Illinois
11
Hoellen
Annunzio
even
Illinois
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
good
Indiana
11
Hudnutt
Jacobs
good
Kentucky
3
Kaelin
Mazzoli
even
Kentucky
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
good
Lousiana
3
Treen
Runoff
good
Maine
2
Cohen
Violette
even
Maryland
4
Holt
Fornos
even
Mississippi
2
Butler
Bowen
even
Mississippi
5
Lott
Stone
even
Missouri
6
Sloan
Litton.
good
New Jersey
13
Maraziti
Meyner
even
New York
3
Roncallo
Bales
good
New York
26
Gilman
Dow
even
N. Carolina
4
Hawke
Andrews
even
Oklahoma
1
Runoff
Jones
good
1
Limehouse
Davis
even
S. Carolina
S. Dakota
2
Adnot
McKeever
good
Tennessee
6
Beard
Anderson
even
Texas
5
Steelman
Cabel
even
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have
arisen while compiling data on Congressional races.
You would probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor
the recommended solution.
1. In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the
Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has
attempted to formulate a list of key races through
a process of checking with Congressional leaders
like Ford and Wilson, reviewing outside data such
as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry Political
Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current number
of target districts is 115. The process in the past
has been very complex and resistant to changes
during the campaign. The process has not been
effective according to Timmons and Anderson.
2. In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark
MacGregor indicated a strong desire to rely heavily
on the opinions of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional
Campaign Committee because they badly want a Republican
House.
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who are assigned the
task at 1701 of pulling together data on the House
and Senate races, argue strongly that it doesn't
make sense to rely entirely on these Hill sources.
They propose instead an internal committee which
would analyze all available sources, but would
be independent and flexible and be in a position to
make judgements on various races on the basis of what
is best for the President. Attached at Tab A are
several examples of how the polling data and field
reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information available to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
-- 2
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small
working committee at the White House to undertake
the basic analysis of House races. They recommend
that Bill Timmons be the senior member of this
committee; others included would be Ehrlichman,
Dent and Dick Cook. Timmons role would not be
a visible one. This group would rely heavily on
available polling data and on detailed field reports
from 1701, then analyze the individual races and make
recommendations on each race as to Presidential,
White House and campaign involvement.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
DISCUSS
Attached at Tab B is a list of Congressional seats which,
if won by the GOP, would result in a net gain. Anderson
and Timmons concur with Dent's list of 10 incumbents
that need defensive help.
Congressional
GOP
Democrat
Polling
Field
Campaign
Race
Candidate
Candidate
Results
Survey
Committee
Calif. 11th
Chase
Ryan
-25
1 in 20
target
Calif. 34th
Ratterree
Hanna
-25
no chance
target
Conn.
1st
Rittenband
Cotter
-
little
target
chance
Ind.
4th
Bloom
Roush
-28
poor
target
Kans.
2nd
McAtee
Roy
-35
poor
target
Mich.
18th
Huber
Montgomery
-15
poor
target
(Anti-Nixon
Rep.)
Wyom.
AL
Kidd
Roncalio
-13
-
target
GOP HOUSE GAINS
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENTS
Arizona
4
Conlin
Grossman
even
California
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
good
California
38
Snider
Brown
even
California
42
Burgener
Lowe
even
Colorado
4
Johnson
Menson
even
Colorado
5
Armstrong
Johnson
good
Connecticut
5
Sarasin
Monagan
good
Florida
5
Runoff
Gunter
good
Florida
10
Bafalis
Runoff
good
Illinois
3
Hanrahan
Coman
good
Illinois
10
Young
Mikva
even
Illinois
11
Hoellen
Annunzio
even
Illinois
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
good
Indiana
11
Hudnutt
Jacobs
good
Kentucky
3
Kaelin
Mazzoli
even
Kentucky
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
good
Lousiana
3
Treen
Runoff
good
Maine
2
Cohen
Violette
even
Maryland
4
Holt
Fornos
even
Mississippi
2
Butler
Bowen
even
Mississippi
5
Lott
Stone
even
Missouri
6
Sloan
Litton.
good
New Jersey
13
Maraziti
Meyner
even
New York
3
Roncallo
Bales
good
New York
26
Gilman
Dow
even
N. Carolina
4
Hawke
Andrews
even
Oklahoma
1
Runoff
Jones
good
S. Carolina
1
Limehouse
Davis
even
S. Dakota
2
Adnot
McKeever
good
Tennessee
6
Beard
Anderson
even
Texas
5
Steelman
Cabel
even
September 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have
arisen while compiling data on Congressional races.
You would probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor
the recommended solution.
1. In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the
Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has
attempted to formulate a list of key races through
a process of checking with Congressional leaders
like Ford and Wilson, reviewing outside data such
as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry Political
Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current number
of target districts is 115. The process in the past
has been very complex and resistant to changes
during the campaign. The process has not been
effective according to Timmons and Anderson.
2. In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark
MacGregor indicated a strong desire to rely heavily
on the opinions of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional
Campaign Committee because they badly want a Republican
House.
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who are assigned the
task at 1701 of pulling together data on the House
and Senate races, argue strongly that it doesn't
make sense to rely entirely on these Hill sources.
They propose instead an internal committee which
would analyze all available sources, but would
be independent and flexible and be in a position to
make judgements on various races on the basis of what
is best for the President. Attached at Tab A are
several examples of how the polling data and field
reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information awailable to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
-- 2 --
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small
working committee at the White House to undertake
the basic analysis of House races. They recommend
that Bill Timmons be the senior member of this
committee; others included would be Ehrlichman,
Dent and Dick Cook. Timmons role would not be
a visible one. This group would rely heavily on
available polling data and on detailed field reports
from 1701, then analyze the individual races and make
recommendations on each race as to Presidential,
White House and campaign involvement.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
DISCUSS
Attached at Tab B is a list of Congressional seats which,
if won by the GOP, would result in a net gain. Anderson
and Timmons concur with Dent's list of 10 incumbents
that need defensive help.
213A
0' NEILL 9-17
NIGHT LD
BY GEORGE J. MARDER
WASHINGTON (UPI) DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS BELIEVE SEN. GEORGE S.
MCGOVERN WILL BE RIDING THEIR COATTAILS -- NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND
-- IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION.
NONETHELESS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN
COMMITTEE, REP. THOMAS P. O'NEILL OF MASSACHUSETTS, SAID SUNDAY SOME
DEMOCRATS ARE EDUCATING VOTERS ON TICKET SPLITTING, SO THOSE WHO
DON'T WANT TO VOTE FOR MCGOVERN WILL STILL BE ABLE TO VOTE FOR THE
CONGRESSMAN OF THEIR CHOICE.
"THE DEMOCRATIC MEMBERS OF CONGRESS DON'T RUN ON THE COATTAIL OF
THE PRESIDENT OR THE CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT," 0' NEILL SAID IN A UPI
WASHINGTON WINDOW INTERVIEW.
" IT WORKS THE OTHER WAY AROUND. MCGOVERN WILL ACIUALLY BE RUNNING
ON THE COATTAIL OF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES. THE STRENGTH THAT THEY
SHOW LOCALLY WILL HELP HIM IMMENSELY. IT DOESN'T WORK THE OTHER WAY."
ASKED IF TICKET SPLITTING WILL BE A CRUCIAL FACT OR IF MCGOVERN
DOES NOT DO WELL, 0' NEILL SAID "I HAVE TO AGREE WITH YOU ON THAT."
ASKED IF A STUDY HAD BEEN MADE ON THE TICKET SPLITTING
POSSIBILITIES, HE SAID, YES, VERY DEFINITELY."
HE WENT ON TO LIST THE STATES WHERE TICKET SPLITTING IS ALLOWED
AND SAID CANDIDATES WHO WERE TRYING TO EXPLOIT THE POSSIBILITY WERE
BEING TOLD TO GET VOTERS TO IDENTIFY WITH THEIR NAME -- SO VOTERS CAN
SINGLE THEM OUT RATHER THAN VOTING A STRAIGHT TICKET WITH PRESIDENT
NIXON AT THE TOP.
O'NEILL FLATLY PREDICTED THE DEMOCRATS WOULD CARRY THE HOUSE IN
IOVEMBER BY WINNING "A MINIMUM" OF 50 SEATS MORE THAN THE
REPUBLICANS. HE FIXED THE HOUSE BATTLEGROUND AT 87 MARGINAL SEATS, 58
NOW HELD BY DEMOCRATS AND 29 BY REPUBLICANS, CONCEDING THAT THE
DEMOCRATS WOULD FINISH UP WITH A NET LOSS OF POSSIBLY 15 SEATS.
REPUBLICANS WOULD HAVE TO MAKE A NET GAIN OF 39 SEATS TO WIN
CONTROL.
O'NEILL, WHO ALSO IS DEMOCRATIC WHIP IN THE HOUSE, DISMISSED AS
"IDLE TALK" REPORTS THAT REPUBLICANS MIGHT TRY TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
HOUSE IN THE NEXT CONGRESS WITH THE AID OF CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATS, IN
THE EVENT THE ELECTION IS CLOSE.
HE ALSO DISCOUNTED MUCH ANXIETY EXPRESSED BY SOME DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATES THAT THEY MAY BE PULLED DOWN TO DEFEAT IN THE EVENT OF A
MCGOVERN LOSS.
"THAT'S THE USUAL COMMENT THAT YOU HEAR," 0' NEILL SAID. "I RECALL
DURING THE KENNEDY DAYS WHEN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS CAME TO ME AND SAID,
'DON'T ALLOW KENNEDY TO COME INTO MY DISTRICT, HE WILL HURT ME.' WE
HAD THE SAME THING HAPPEN IN 1968 WHEN THEY DIDN'T WANT HUBERT
HUMPHREY INTO THEIR DISTRICTS.
"I PREDICT THAT BEFORE THIS ELECTION IS OVER, THOSE SAD SACKS WILL
BE ASKING THE COMMITTEE IF THERE'S ANY POSSIBLY WAY THAT MCGOVERN AND
SHRIVER (DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE R. SARGENT SHRIVER)
CAN GET INTO THEIR DISTRICTS," HE ADDED.
0' NEILL SAID "WORK AND WAGES" ARE THE BIG ISSUES FOR DEMOCRATS IN
THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS. HE EXPECTED "SIZEABLE FINANCIAL HELP
FROM LABOR IN THE 87 BATTLEGROUND SEATS WHILE PREDICTING THAT
REPUBLICANS WOULD OUTSPEND DEMOCRATS IN HOUSE RACES, $20 TO ONE.
UPI 09-17 01:52 PED
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 15, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM TIMMONS
BT
SUBJECT:
Presidential Endorsements
Attached is Mary Ann Allin's excellent report on candidates and possible
Presidential endorsements. I have reviewed the listing and make recom-
mentions for each category.
My congressional staff and Stan Anderson, handling congressional
candidates information for the Re-Elect Committee, concur in this
report.
PART I - INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS IN HOUSE
I recommend no Presidential endorsements for:
1.
Pete McCloskey (Calif)
2.
Donald Riegle (Mich.)
3.
John Ashbrook (Ohio)
I suggest a carefully worded, non-endorsement letter to Rep. Bob Price
(Tex) who faces incumbent Democrat Graham Purcell, a strong Presi-
dential supporter on Vietnam and domestic issues.
All GOP incumbents should receive the standard letter attached except
those with asterisks who should have personal letters tailored for
maximum assistance.
PART II - NON-INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS FOR HOUSE
I recommend no Presidential endorsements to GOP challengers for the
following Democrats:
-2-
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
Alabama:
Nichols, Bevill, Jones
Calif:
Johnson, Sisk, Holifield, Wilson
Conn:
Monagan, Giaimo
Fla:
Bennett, Chappell, Haley, Rogers
Ga:
Davis, Stuckey
Ill:
Kluczynski, Shipley, Price, Rostenkowski
Ky:
Stubblefield
LA:
Passman
Md:
Byron
Missouri:
Randall, Bolling, Ichord, Burlison
N. Mex:
Runnels
NY:
Pike, Stratton, Rooney (if he wins new primary)
N. C.:
Fountain, Jones, Taylor
Ohio:
Ashley, Hays
Okla:
Steed, Jarman
Ore:
Green
Pa:
Flood, Morgan
S.C.:
Dorn, Davis, Mann, Gettys
Tenn:
Evins, Jones
Tex:
Roberts, Cabell, Teague, Brooks, Fisher, Casey
Va:
Downing
W. Va:
Slack, Staggers
Wash:
Foley
Wis:
Zablocki
These Members have supported the President on Vietnam and most have
good voting records on domestic issues. Of the 57, 8 are officially "targets"
by the Congressional Campaign Committee and the committee judges only
4 of the 8 as realistic possibilities. These four are seats held by Monagan
(Conn), Shipley (I11), Davis (SC) and Cabell (Tex).
I support a standard endorsement letter to other Republican challengers
in Part II.
PART III - INCUMBENT REPUB LICAN SENATORS
I concur in Presidential endorsements for all incumbents seeking re-election.
However, they should be tailored to suit the candidate with less enthusiastic
letters for Stevens, Percy, Pearson, Brooke and Case.
PART IV - GOP HOUSE MEMBERS SEEKING SENATE
Recommend good lett
(or Thompson and McClure but a tailored
endorsement for Sco
-3-
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
PART V - REPUBLICAN SENATE CHALLENGERS
I recommend no endorsement letters for GOP challengers to these
Democrats:
1.
John Sparkman (Alabama)
2.
John McClellan (Ark)
3.
James Eastland (Miss)
4.
Jennings Randolph (W. Va)
PART VI - INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS
I concur in letters to all.
PART VII - REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL CHALLENGERS
Recommend against endorsements for:
1.
Len Blaylock (Ark)
2.
Henry Grover (Texas)
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
*BT lums
September 15, 1972
*
the
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Congressional Campaigns
This memorandum outlines several problems that have arisen
while compiling data on Congressional races. You would
probably have to discuss personally with MacGregor the
recommended solution.
In Congressional campaigns since 1966, the Republican
Congressional Campaign Committee has attempted to formu-
late a list of key races through a process of checking with
Congressional leaders like Ford and Wilson, reviewing out-
side data such as AmPac and BiPac (Business and Industry
Political Action Committee), and analyzing reports received
from various field sources. Their current list of target
districts is 115. The process in the past has been very
complex and resistant to changes during the campaign. The
process has not been effective.
In the 1701 strategy meeting last week, Clark MacGregor
indicated a strong desire to rely heavily on the opinions
of Ford, Wilson and the Congressional Campaign Committee
because they badly want a Republican House. Last night
Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson, who is assigned the task
at 1701 of pulling together data on the House and Senate
races, argued strongly that it didn't make sense to rely
entirely on these Hill sources. They proposed instead an
internal committee which would analyze all available
sources, but would be independent and flexible and be in
a position to make judgements on various races on the
basis of what is best for the President. Attached at
Tab A are several examples of how the polling data and
field reports compiled by Anderson differ widely from
information available to the Congressional Campaign
Committee.
- 2 -
Teeter and Anderson recommend forming a small working
committee at 1701 to undertake the basic analysis of
House races. They recommend that Bill Timmons be the
senior member of this committee and be the liaison at
the White House. Ilis role would not be a visible one.
This group would rely heavily on available polling
data and on detailed field reports from 1701, then
analyze the individual races and make recommendations
on each race as to Presidential, White House and cam-
paign involvement.
Approve
Disapprove
Discuss
Attached at Tab B is a listing of Congressional seats
which, if won by the GOP, would result in a net gain.
GS/jb
Congressional
GOP
Democrat
Polling
Field
Campaign
Race
Candidate
Candidate
Results
Survey
Committee
Calif. 11th
Chase
Ryan
-25
1 in 20
target
Calif. 34th
Ratterree
Hanna
-25
no chance
target
Conn.
1st
Rittenband
Cotter
-
little
target
chance
Ind.
4th
Bloom
Roush
-28
poor
target
Kans.
2nd
McAtee
Roy
-35
poor
target
Mich.
18th
Huber
Montgomery
-15
poor
target
(Anti-Nixon
Rep.)
Wyom.
AL
Kidd
Roncalio
-13
-
target
STR 5 num
list
GOP HOUSE GAINS
By
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENTS
31 Arizona
4
Grossman no poll late
1223
Conlin
even
California
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
good
California
38
Snider
Brown 42-47-11/8/31
even
California
42
Burgener
Lowe no pole dola
even
Colorado
4
Johnson
Menson 9/16
even
Colorado
5
Armstrong
Johnson rpd
good
Connecticut
5
Sarasin
Monagan npd
good
Florida
5
Runoff
Gunter 50-50 - 9/13 good
Florida
10
Bafalis
Runoff npd
good
Illinois
3
Hanrahan
Coman npd
good
Illinois
10
Young
Mikva ned
even
Illinois
11
Hoellen
Annunzie ,npd
even
Illinois
17
O'Brien
Houlihan npd
good
Indiana
11
Hudnutt
Jacobs 30-43-27
good
Kentucky
3
Kaelin
Mazzoli npd
even
Kentucky
6
Jackson
Breckinridge npd
good
Lousiana
3
Treen
Runoff 48-40-12
good
Maine
2
Cohen
Violette 43-35-2-811
even.
Maryland
4
Holt
Fornos npd
even
Mississippi
2
Butler
Bowen npd
even
Mississippi
5
Lott
Stone nod
even
Missouri
6
Sloan
Litton npd
good
New Jersey
13
Maraziti
Meyner npd
even
New York
3
Roncallo
Bales npd
good
New York
26
Gilman
Dow npd
even
N. Carolina
4
Hawke
Andrews 24-49-31
even
Oklahoma
1
Runoff
Jones npd
good
S. Carolina
1
Limehouse
Davis npd
even
S. Dakota
2
Adnot
McKeever 50-19-3/8/19 good
Tennessee
6
Beard
Anderson npd
even
Texas
5
Steelman
Cabel npd
even
September 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM-IOR: MR. STREIUM B. BULL
NR. LAVID N. 2. MARKER
FROM:
DESIGNT L. CHAPIN
Faldoman has advanced the idea that perhaps we can help men
in kev Conste racid by having them come in to meet with the
President in his office. The idea would be to set up a day for
a Sente confilms. For currim, Terrinick, a condidate in
New : coull come in, have 2 briefing by meeting with
Ehrlichers or Crie, 2 mostl: with 1 cig, perhaps meet with
someone who would be knowled table on some of the various
problems concerning New 1. chico -- maybe Indian affairs or
whatever -- and Con Love the candidate 80 in and meet with
the President for thirty or forty minutes. The idea would be
to give the man a great deal of emposure within the White House
and to seul them back to their Districts so that they are tied
to the President, not Crem on the attack against McGovern,
and hopefully got there enough publicity that it will help with
their races.
Will you please develop a plan for bringing these key Senate
candidates in? You should get a list of the candidates from
Tector. We should put together a memorandum to go in to
Haldeman on Wednesday of this coming week listing who the
key Senatorial candidates are, as well as what our scenario
would be when they come in. Once we get approval on the plan,
then we can move off with scheduling the time for them.
Gaet lest
for Bull
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Senate Races
The attached chart summarizes the 14 marginal Senate
races, Block caps indicate net gain above the current
45 Republican seats, The polling data, when available,
has Republican first. Anticipated date of receipt of
post-Labor Day polling is indicated.
GS/jb
STATE
CANDIDATES
POLLS
COMMENTS
Mich.
Griffin (R)
8/30- 42-39-19;9/18
Close. Detroit - Metro Key
Kelley (D)
Area. Needs P visit, grants,
money. Busing issue, may die.
Texas
Tower (R)
8/15- 45-32-24;9/18
Close, but Tower pulling away.
Sanders (D)
Needs P and VP visit.
Ky.
Nunn (R)
Poll avail - 10/7
Jan poll - Nunn behind. Field
Huddleston (D)
reports Nunn up. Needs $.
AMPAC active.
NEW MEXICO
Domenici (R)
Jul- 37-53-10;10/1
Domenici's org. weak; Napoli-
Daniels (D)
tan on Daniels; needs $, cam-
paign management and P visit.
RHODE
Chaffee (R)
Poll avail - 9/22
Pell gaining; needs $ and
ISLAND
Pell (D)
(Becker)
surrogate visits.
S.D.
Hirsch (R)
8/15
H -6
;10/7
No P or VP visit; Needs $ &
Abourezk (D)
N
M
U
Butz; Gov & 2 close Cong.
56
28
16
Id.
McClure (R)
Poll avail - 10/10
Field reports slightly ahead;
Davis (D)
Central Surveys
needs $ & help healing
primary split.
GEORGIA
Thompson (R)
8/3- 43-16-41; 9/31
Needs issue help. P or VP
Nunn (D)
(misleading)
visit helpful.
OKLAHOMA
Bartlett (R)
Jul- 36-54-10;10/5
Field reports close behind.
Edmondson (D)
Needs P visit, strategy help
Gov.
NORTH
Helms (R)
Aug- Helms behind;
Needs $ & org. help; Field
CAROLINA
Galifanikas (D)
Poll avail-?
reports moving up.
ALABAMA
Blount (R)
Jun 30- 24-64-4-8;
Field reports 15 down; no
Sparkman (D)
Poll avail- 9/19
overt help.
MONTANA
Hibbard (R)
Poll avail - 9/30
Needs $ & Mansfield in D.C.
Metcalf (D)
LOUISIANA
Toledano (R)
?
Needs $ & org. & poll.
Johnston (D)
McKeithen
VIRGINIA
Scott (R)
Behind;
Needs P ident. & landslide;
Spong (D)
Poll avail- ?
poor candidate.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Senate Races
The attached chart summarizes the 14 marginal Senate
races, Block caps indicate not gain above the current
45 Republican seats. The polling data, when available,
has Republican first. Anticipated date of receipt of
post-Labor Day polling is indicated.
GS/jb
STATE
CANDIDATES
POLLS
COMMENTS
Mich.
Griffin (R)
8/30- 42-39-19;9/18
Close. Detroit - Metro Key
Kelley (D)
Area. Needs P visit, grants,
money. Busing issue, may die.
Texas
Tower (R)
8/15- 45-32-24;9/18
Close, but Tower pulling away.
Sanders (D)
Needs P and VP visit.
Ky.
Nunn (R)
Poll avail - 10/7
Jan poll - Nunn behind. Field
Huddleston (D)
reports Nunn up. Needs $.
AMPAC active.
NEW MEXICO
Domenici (R)
Jul- 37-53-10;10/1
Domenici's org. weak; Napoli-
Daniels (D)
tan on Daniels; needs $, cam-
paign management and P visit.
RHODE
Chaffee (R)
Poll avail - 9/22
Pell gaining; needs $ and
ISLAND
Pell (D)
(Becker)
surrogate visits.
S.D.
Hirsch (R)
8/15
H -6
;10/7
No P or VP visit; Needs $ &
Abourezk (D)
N
M
U
Butz; Gov & 2 close Cong.
56
28
16
Id.
McClure (R)
Poll avail - 10/10
Field reports slightly ahead;
Davis (D)
Central Surveys
needs $ & help healing
primary split.
GEORGIA
Thompson (R)
8/3- 43-16-41; 9/31
Needs issue help. P or VP
Nunn (D)
(misleading)
visit helpful.
OKLAHOMA
Bartlett (R)
Jul- 36-54-10;10/5
Field reports close behind.
Edmondson (D)
Needs P visit, strategy help
Gov.
NORTH
Helms (R)
Aug- Helms behind;
Needs $ & org. help; Field
CAROLINA
Galifanikas (D)
Poll avail-?
reports moving up.
ALABAMA
Blount (R)
Jun 30- 24-64-4-8;
Field reports 15 down; no
Sparkman (D)
Poll avail- 9/19
overt help.
MONTANA
Hibbard (R)
Poll avail - 9/30
Needs $ & Mansfield in D.C.
Metcalf (D)
LOUISIANA
Toledano (R)
?
Needs $ & org. & poll.
Johnston (D)
McKeithen
VIRGINIA
Scott (R)
Behind;
Needs P ident. & landslide;
Spong (D)
Poll avail- ?
poor candidate.
Hold
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT :
1972 U.S. Senate Races
This memorandum briefly describes the status of the 33 U.S. Senate
races. The attachment describes each race with the current estimation
of the chances for victory by Clark MacGregor (CM), Harry Dent (D),
Fred Malek (FM), Bill Timmons (BT), and Robert Marik (RM), along.
with Bob Teeter (T). The comments by MacGregor, Dent, Timmons,
Teeter, and Malek's Field Operation are given below for the 18 swing
states:
Alabama
Dent believes Blount could win because of the straight party ticket
voting. Also, a black is entering the race. This will pull votes from
Sparkman.
Teeter says Blount is moving up in the polls and is now within
10-15%, up substantially from the Wave II polls.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists Alabama as 5th in its
6 priority races (Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Carolina,
Alabama, and Montana). In each of these races they will give the
Republican candidate $70 - 75,000. Dent says they are asking 1701
for an additional $500, 000 to distribute between September 15 and 30.
Georgia
Dent says Fletcher Thompson is coming up but would have had a
better chance against Gambrell. Maddox's blast at McGovern helped
the President and Thompson. The President's coattails and personal
identification with Thompson would be very helpful.
2
Teetor indicates there are no polls available. He knows
Thompson personally and characterizes him as an "opportunist"
and "free spirit".
MacGregor and Malek concur in this assessment of Thompson
(opportunist). They urge money and organizational support for
Thompson.
Timmons says Thompson is a long shot but possible.
Idaho
Dent says the race is closer than previously believed. The
President could really help with personal identification.
MacGregor and Malek say there are still party wounds from the
tough primary. Teeter concurs. All indicate McClure needs money
and organizational help.
Timmons believes McClure should win.
Kentucky
Dent urges more Presidential identification with Nunn, who
should win.
Teeter reports Nunn is moving up in recent polls.
MacGregor says the field organization is good, but Malek says
Nunn needs money. There is some question about a possible commit-
ment of money made by Mitchell to get Nunn to run.
Timmons says Nunn is a winner.
Louisiana
Dent reports that the Republican candidate, Ben Toledano, could
have a chance in the three-and possibly four-way race. Bennett
Johnson is the conservative Democratic candidate. Ex-Governor
McKeithan, who is running as an Independent will split the Demo-
cratic vote. McKeithan is also urging a black to run to pull votes
from Johnston.
3
Maine
Teeter urges a non-political trip by the President to show his
support of Smith as a national figure. She needs no money.
Michigan
Dent believes this is very close though he sees Griffin with a
slight edge.
Teeter says the polls have had Griffin ahead and behind twice
in the last year. Busing may fade some by November. Teeter
urges Administration assistance in the form of grants or projects,
especially in the Detroit tri-county area.
MacGregor says Griffin needs money and Administration assistance.
Malek indicates that all telephone and door-to-door canvassing is
done jointly by the President and Griffin's campaign organizations,
Montana
Dent says Hibbard has a better chance than previously thought.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Montana listed 6th. A
Presidential sweep could pull Hibbard in,
Tecter says there are no polls available. Metcalf is well liked
in Montana.
Malek says Hibbard is a poor candidate with a poor organization.
New Mexico
Dent gives Domenici a 50/50 chance.
Teeter says Domenici needs money.
Malek reports that neither the President's nor Domenici's organizations
are very strong. Domenici needs money and organizational support.
Timmons says Domenici has a good chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists New Mexico 2nd in
its list of 6 top priority seats.
4
North Carolina
Dent says Helms has a 50/50 chance but badly needs identification
with the President.
Teeter's month old data indicates Helms is behind in spite of the
President's huge lead.
MacGregor and Malek indicate Helms needs money but organiza-
tional help more.
Timmons believes Helms is a good possibility.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has North Carolina fourth.
Oklahoma
Dent says Bartlett really needs identification with the President.
Bellmon's gratuitous slap at Bartlett recently didn't help.
Teeter urges a Presidential visit because Bartlett needs the
identification and the President is so far ahead there is little risk.
Malek reports Bartlett has real organizational problems.
Timmons says Bartlett has a fighting chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Oklahoma 3rd.
Oregon
Dent says Hatfield should win because McCall is still staying out.
Teeter says the race is very close because Hatfield's approval
rating is 80 low (35% by Republicans). McCall is very popular (65%
by Republicans) and should be encouraged to help Hatfield.
Malek says Hatfield has no money problems but the 1701 and
Hatfield organizations are not helping each other to the degree that
they should.
Timmons says Hatfield will win.
5
Rhode Island
Dent says this is our best chance for a Democratic soat, but
he wonders whether Chafee will vote with the President.
Teeter says the race is closer than most believe, and Chafee's
lead is the "softest" in the country.
Malek says money is not a problem but needs organizational help.
Chafee has been "playing anti-Nixon games" 80 far.
Timmons says Chafee is a winner.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Rhode Island at the
top of their list of six.
South Dakota
Dent believes this should be our #1 defensive battle. Hirsch is
coming on strong and would totally support the President. Abourezk
io identified too closely with McGovern.
Teeter says Hirsch was way behind but since Abourezk is 50
close to McGovern, Hirsch has a chance.
Malek urges money for Hirsch but no Presidential visit,
Timmons says Hirsch is a sure loser.
Texas
Dent says this should be our #2 defensive battle.
Teeter believes Tower will win, because the President is 80 strong.
Malek says money is no problem and the organizational problems are
resolving themselves. 1701 and Tower are working their telephone
campaigns together.
Virginia
Dent says Scott could only win if the President won by a landslide.
Even Harry Byrd doesn't like Scott. Scott would vote with the President
if elected.
6
Malek urges some money for organizational help but suggests
that Scott be kept off the road and that there be no Presidential visit.
The possibility of sending Cliff White into Virginia was raised.
Timmons says Virginia is a long shot.
To summarize, the President should visit Texas and Oklahoma.
In the other states, money and behind the scenes organizational help
should be given.
Democrats
Republicans
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Win
State
Candidates
D
RM, FM
Alabama D
Blount (R)
CM, T
Sparkman (D)
Alaska R Stevens (R) RM, CM, T
D, FM
Guess (D)
T, D, R
Arkansas Dr Babbitt (R)
FM, CN
McClellan (D)
Colorado R Allott (R)
RM, CM,
(Democrat
FM, D, T
Primary 9/12)
Delaware R Boggs (R)
RM, CM,
Biden (D)
FM, D, T
?
RM, CM,
Georgia D
Thompson (R)
Nunn (D) it Cambrell
FM, D, T
2 Idaho
D
McClure (R)
D, BT
RM, CM,
Davis (D) fordan
FM, T
Illinois Rr Percy (R)
RM, CM,
D
Pucinski (D)
FM, T
Iowa
RV
Miller (R)
T, RM, CM,
Clark (D)
FM, D
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Kansas
Rr
Pearson (R)
T, CM, FM
RM
Tetzlaff (D)
D
?Kentucky R
Nunn (R) Cooper BT
RM,D
CM, FM
T
Huddleston (D)
Louisiana D
Toledano (R)
D
RM, CM
T
Johnston (D) Ellender
FM
McKeithan (I)
Maine
RV
Smith (R)
FM, BT, D
T, RM, CM
Hathaway (D)
Mass. RV
Brooke (R)
I, CM, FM
(Democratic
RM, D, BT
Primary 9/19)
Michigan R Griffin (R)
T, RM,
Kelley (D)
CM, FM
D
Minnesota D Hansen (R)
D
T, CM,
Mondale (D)
FM, RM
BT
Mississippi D Carmichael (R)
RM, FM,
Eastland (D)
CM, T, D
? Montana D
Hibbard (R)
D
T, RM,
Metcalf (D)
CM, FM
Nebraska R Curtis (R)
T, RM, CM
FM
Carpenter (D)
D
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
N.H. D
(Republican
FM
T, RM, CM
D
Primary 9/12)
McIntyre (D)
N.J. R
Case (R)
T, CM, FM,
Krebs (D)
RM, D, BT
7 New Mexico D Domenici (R)
RM, D, BT
T, CM, FM
Daniels (D) anderson
? N. C. D
Helms (R)
RM, CM.
T
Galifianakis (D) Jordan
FM, D, BT
7 Oklahoma D
Bartlett (R)
RM, CM,
T
Edmondson (D) Harris
FM, D, BT
Oregon R.V Hatfield (R)
BT
RM, CM,
T, D
Morse (D)
FM
Rhode Island D Chafee (R)
BT
T, RM, CM,
Pell (D)
FM, D
S. Carolina R Thurmond (R)
T, RM,
Ziegler (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
2 S. Dakota R Hirsch (R) mundt
T, CM,
RM, D
Abourezk (D)
FM
Tennessee Rv R Baker (R)
T, RM,
Blanton (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Texas RV.
Tower (R)
T
CM, FM,
Sanders (D)
RM, D
Virginia Dr Scott (R)
T, RM,
CM, FM
Spong (D)
D, BT
T,
W. Virginia D/Leonard (R)
CM
Randolph (D)
D
Wyoming RV Hansen (R)
T, FM,
RM
Vinich (D)
CM, D
Hold
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races
Dent has prepared a factual analysis of the Congressional
races, indicating that the Republicans must hold all
current incumbent seats and win 39 new seats to reach
the 218 needed to organize the House. Ford's Southern
Democrats switchover project will not become important
unless the Republicans are close to 218. Dent's Tab A
picks the top 30 requiring attention.
Timmons independently reviewed the September 5 Congres-
sional Campaign Committee analysis. Timmons' picks are
double underscored while Dent's are single underscored.
Where Dent and Timmons agree three underlines appear.
Malek's field organization can provide assessments of 50
important individual races by September 13. Malek's input
would be conjecture before then.
MacGregor's views will be checked September 7.
Teeter talked with an AMPAC representative on September 5
regarding access to their polls. Teeter received a commit-
ment to obtain the 25 completed polls on September 8.
This analysis of the Congressional races will be resubmitted
when the additional information is acquired.
The only people involved in this project are Bill Timmons,
Clark MacGregor, Fred Malek, Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson.
Harry Flemming has done an independent analysis for Clark
MacGregor but has not reviewed it with Mitchell or MacGregor.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
HSD
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Congressional
Races
The GOP Congressional election picture is brighter today
than on July 10 when I submitted the last memorandum,
primarily because the President is stronger. The Con-
gressional Campaign Committee is privately predicting
a minimum pickup of 20-25 seats, recognizing we could win
more if the tide is strong enough. Jerry Ford is still
working on the prospect of Southern Democrat switchovers
after the election if we are close enough to the magic
number of 218 seats required to organize the House. The
present lineup is 178 GOP (plus Brad Morse vacancy) and
255 Democrats (plus Governor Edwards of Louisiana vacancy).
In order to win 218 we must keep everything we have,
including the Brad Morse vacancy, and pick up 39.
Attachment A contains a listing in state alphabetical
order of the top 10 incumbent seats which need defending
(most vulnerable on our side) ; our best 10 possible
pickups; and then our second best 10 possible pickups.
Attachment B contains a listing of congressional seats
targeted by the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee,
defensively and offensively. The ones underscored in red
need priority attention to win.
TOP 10 THAT NEED DEFENDING
1. California 6
Mailliard
2.
Colorado 1
McKevitt
3.
Iowa 1
Schwengel
4.
Iowa 4
Kyl
5.
Indiana 10
Dennis
6.
Michigan 2
Esch
7.
Minnesota 6
Zwach
8.
Tennessee 8
Kuykendall
9.
Utah 2
Lloyd
10. Wisconsin 3
Thomson
TOP POSSIBLE PICKUPS (TOP 10)
1. California 36
Ketchum (new seat)
2. California 42 (safe)
Burgener (new seat)
3. Illinois 17
O'Brien (new seat)
4.
Indiana 11
Hudnut (Jacobs)
5.
Maine 2
Cohen (Dem. open)
6. New York 26
Gilman (Dow)
7. North Carolina 4
Hawke (Dem. open)
8. Pennsylvania 9
Shuster (Rep. open)
9. South Dakota 2
Abdnor (Dem. open)
10. Washington 4
Bledsoe (McCormac) primary 9/19
POSSIBLE PICKUPS (SECOND 10)
1. Illinois 3
Hanrahan (new seat).
2. Illinois 10
Young (Mikva)
3. Illinois 11
Hoellen (Annunzio)
4. Illinois 22
Lamkin (Shipley)
5.
Indiana 4
Bloom (Roush)
6.
Kentucky 6
Jackson (Dem. open)
7.
Maryland 4
Holt (new seat)
8.
Massachusetts 12
Weeks (Rep. open)
9. Mississippi 5
Lott (Dem. open)
10. New Jersey 12
Rinaldo (Rep. open)
CODE:
ND - NEW DISTRICT
RO - REPUBLICAN OPEN
DO - DEMOCRAT OPEN
PAIR - TWO INCUMBENTS
AS OF 9-5-72
* - INCUMBENT
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ALABAMA
2
* Dickinson
Reeves
ALASKA
AL
Young
* Begich
ND
ARIZONA
4
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
CALIFORNIA
6
* Mailliard
Boas
CALIFORNIA
7
Hannaford
* Dellums
ND
CALIFORNIA
11
Chase
Ryan
CALIFORNIA
18
* Mathias
Lavery
RO
CALIFORNIA
20
Moorhead
Binkley
-2-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CALIFORNIA
31
Valentine
*
C. Wilson
CALIFORNIA
34
Ratterree
* Hanna
CALIFORNIA
35
Brown
* Anderson
ND
CALIFORNIA
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
ND
CALIFORNIA
38
Snider
Brown
RO
CALIFORNIA
39
Hinshaw
Black
ND
CALIFORNIA
42
Burgener
Lowe
COLORADO
1
* McKevitt
Primary 9/12
COLORADO
4
Primary 9/12
* Aspinall
ND
COLORADO
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
-3-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CONNECTICUT
1
Rittenband
* Cotter
CONNECTICUT
2
* Steele
Hilsman
CONNECTICUT
5
Sarasin
* Monagan
ND
FLORIDA
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
FLORIDA
8
Thompson
* Haley
ND
FLORIDA
10
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
ND
FLORIDA
13
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
RO
GEORGIA
5
Cook
Young
RO
IDAHO
1
Symms
Williams
ND
ILLINOIS
3
Hanrahan
Coman
-4-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ND
ILLINOIS
10
Young
* Mikva
ILLINOIS
11
Hoellen
* Annunzio
ND
ILLINOIS
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
RO
ILLINOIS
21
Madigan
Johnson
ILLINOIS
22
Lamkin
* Shipley
INDIANA
2
* Landgrebe
Fithian
INDIANA
3
Newman
* Brademas
INDIANA
4
Bloom
*
Roush
INDIANA
8
* Zion
Deen
INDIANA
10
* Dennis
Sharp
-5-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
INDIANA
11
Hudnutt
* Jacobs
IOWA
1
* Schwengel
Mezvinsky
IOWA
2
Ellsworth
* Culver
PAIR
IOWA
4
* Kyl
* Smith
KANSAS
2
McAtee
* Roy
KANSAS
3
* Winn
Barsotti
KENTUCKY
3
Kaelin
* Mazzoli
DO
KENTUCKY
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
LOUISIANA
3
Treen
Run-Off 9-30
MAINE
1
Porteous
* Kyros
-6-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
DO
MAINE
2
Cohen
Violette
MARYLAND
1
* Mills
Hargreaves
ND
MARYLAND
4
Holt
Fornos
MARYLAND
6
Mason
* Byron
MASSACHUSETTS
4
Primary 9/19
Drinan
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
5
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
MASSACHUSETTS
6
Moseley
* Harrington
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
12
Weeks
Studds
MICHIGAN
2
* Esch
Stempien
MICHIGAN
12
Serotkin
* 0' Hara
-7-
:
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
HubER
ND
MICHIGAN
18
* Broenfield
Montgomery
MINNESOTA
6
* Zwach
Nolan
MINNESOTA
7
Haaven
* Bergland
DO
MISSISSIPPI
2
Butler
Bowen
DO
MISSISSIPPI
4
Cochran
Bodron
DO
MISSISSIPPI
5
Lott
Stone
DO
MISSOURI
6
Sloan
Litton
RO
MISSOURI
7
Taylor
Thomas
MONTANA
1
* Shoup
Olsen
NEW JERSEY
3
Dowd
* Howard
-8-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW JERSEY
6
* Forsythe
Brennan
NEW JERSEY
9
Schiaffo
* Helstoski
RO
NEW JERSEY
12
Rinaldo
English
ND
NEW JERSEY
13
Maraziti
Meyner
NEW MEXICO
2
Presson
Runnels
NEW YORK
1
Boyd
* Pike
ND
NEW YORK
3
Roncallo
Bales
NEW YORK
6
Gallagher
* Wolff
NEW YORK
23
*
Peyser
Ottinger
NEW YORK
24
Vergari
* Reid
-9-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW YORK
26
Gilman
* Dow
RO
NEW YORK
31
Mitchell
Castle
NEW YORK
32
Koldin
* Hanley
RO
NEW YORK
33
Walsh
Kadys
NEW YORK
36
* Smith
McCarthy
DO
NORTH CAROLINA
4
Hawke
Andrews
RO
NORTH CAROLINA
9
Martin
Beatty
RO
OHIO
4
Guyer
Nicholas
OHIO
8
* Powell
Ruppert
RO
OHIO
16
Regula
Musser
-10-
:
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
OHIO
19
Parr
* Carney
RO
OKLAHOMA
1
Run-Off 9-19
Jones
DO
OKLAHOMA
2
Toliver
McSpadden
PENNSYLVANIA
5
* Ware
Franco
RO
PENNSYLVANIA
9
Shuster
Collins
20
Phine
*Goydes
PENNSYLVANIA
14
Catarinella
* Moorehead
SOUTH CAROLINA
1
Limehouse
* Davis
SOUTH DAKOTA
1
Vickerman
* Denholm
DO
SOUTH DAKOTA
2
Abdnor
McKeever
TENNESSEE
3
* Baker
Sompayrac
-11-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
TENNESSEE
6
Beard
* Anderson
TENNESSEE
8
* Kuykendall
Patterson
TEXAS
5
Steelman
*
Cabell ?
PAIR TEXAS
13
* Price
*
Purcell
UTAH
1
Primary 9/12
McKay
UTAH
2
* Lloyd
Primary 9/12
VIRGINIA
4
Daniel
Gibson
RO
VIRGINIA
6
Butler
Anderson
RO
VIRGINIA
8
Parris
Horan
RO
WASHINGTON
1
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
WASHINGTON
4
Primary 9/19
*
McCormack
-12-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
WISCONSIN
1
Primary 9/12
* Aspin
WISCONSIN
3
* Thomson
Primary 9/12
PAIR WISCONSIN
7
* O'Konski
* Obey
WISCONSIN
8
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
WYOMING
AL
Kidd
* Roncalio
Chicago
220 Past 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, September 18th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although President Nixon has been leading Sen. McGovern by a substantial margin
in the Harris Survey, Democrats are ahead in nationwide races for Congress, 46-41 percent
At the comparable stage of the 1968 campaign, Democratic candidates for Congress held
a 49-40 percent lead. Except for the Midwest, where the GOP holds a 5-point lead,
Democrats running for House seats in other parts of the country average out 9 to 13
points ahead of their Republican opponents.
While both the contests for the White House and for control of Congress can
change considerably in the seven remaining weeks of the campaign, voters at this moment
are expressing intentions to split their tickets this fall more than at any time in our
political history. The total spread between party votes for President and party votes
for Congress now runs a full 39 percentage points nationwide and even higher among
specific blocs of voters.
( more )
HARRIS SURVEY - September 13th, 1972
- 2 -
Between August 30th and Suptember 1st, a cress section of 1,640 likely voters
was asked:
"If the election were being held today and you had to decide right now, in this
Congressional District, would you vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for
Congress?'
VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Congress:
Pres
Spread
Dem
Rep
Nix. McC.
Nationwile
46
41
63
29
39
By Region
East
49
36
60
34
39
Midwest
43
48
64
29
30
South
47
38
70
19
60
West
50
39
58
34
35
By Age
18-29
53
32
52
42
31
30-49
45
41
68
25
47
50 and over
45
46
65
26
38
By Partv
Republican
10
80
93
5
18
Democratic
74
17
43
47
53
Independent
33
47
68
22
32
By Religion
WASP
37
51
74
20
40
Catholic
49
35
62
27
49
Jewish
72
24
47
44
51
By Union Members
58
32
56
34
48
By Income
Under $5,000
48
38
56
36
30
$5,000-9,999
52
35
58
32
42
$10,000-14,999
42
45
70
23
44
$15,000 and over
43
45
71
24
45
By Education
Under 8th grade
53
38
56
36
35
High school
45
41
66
26
44
College
46
41
63
31
37
HARRIS SURVEY - September 18, 1972
- 3 -
A number of key implications emerge from these results:
--- It is highly unlikely that such a wide disparity will finally take place
in the actual balloting on November 7th, for it is much easier for people to indicate
a desire to split their tickets in a public opinion survey than to do it in fact in the
voting booth. This might normally be viewed as an advantage for the Republicans, since
the Presidential line will be at the head of the ballot in each state.
--- However, some of the groups who express the most sizable desire to split
their tickets are from the most articulate segments of the electorate: voters under 30,
the college-educated, those with incomes of $15,000 and over, and Jewish voters.
These groups might very well take the time and trouble to split tickets on Election Day.
--- Union members and those who are Catholic are among the most prolific
intended ticket-splitters. Their early defections in this election from the Democratic
line for President have been taken by some political analysts to indicate that a major
realignment of parties is about to take place in this country. It is entirely possible,
on the other hand, that the Democratic ties they show on the Congressional line might
well temper their potential defections to the Republicans at the head of the ticket.
----- The Democratic showing in the East and the West is rougly similiar to the
vote the Democrats cast in the off-year elections of 1970 for Congress, when they
retained control of the House and Senate. However, the Republican vote in the South is
well above previous years' showings and could presage gains there for the COP. In the
Midwest, the Republicans generally do better than in other regions for Congress, but they
still might score some gains there.
HARRIS SURVEY - September 18th, 1972
- 4 -
---- These results indicate that, at least early in the compaign, President Nixon'
coattails can be helpful CO other Republicans running this fall, but might not be
sufficient to change the longstanding Democratic rule in the House of Representatives.
In fact, if Mr. Nizon, were to press his luck and go all out to ask. for a Republican
Congress to be elected with him, the Democratic undertow that is evident might cost him
votes rather than win votes for Republican candidates running with him.
--- These results point up the fact that the electorate in 1972 is in a highly
volatile state of mind, as indeed it has been all year long. When as many as one in four
voters is prepared to switch his vote between the Presidential and Congressional lines
on the same ballot, it means that selectivity rather than down-the-line uniformity is
likely to be the rule in this year's election.
--- Intended ticket-splitting is lowest among Republicans and independents.
The present inclination of independents to vote = straight COP ticket in this election
could cast some previously relatively safe Democratic seats into the doubtful column.
From these initial results, it is evident that pro-Democratic tugs are still
strong on enrolled Democrats, at least as far as the Congressional elections are
concerned. And, if voter attention becomes focused on the Congressional balloting, it
could have a significant impact on President Nixon's early lead in head-to-head
pairings against Senator McGovern.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
SENATE RACES
ncumbents
STATE
SAFE
PROBABLE
MARGINAL
LONG SHOT
ALABAMA
Blount/Sparkman
ALASKA
Stevens/Guess
ARKANSAS
Babbit/McClellan
COLORADO
Allott/primary 9/12
DELAWARE
Boggs/Biden
GEORGIA
Thompson/Nunn
IDAHO
McClure/Davis
ILLINOIS
Percy/Pucinski
ICWA
Miller/Clark
KANSAS
Pearson/Tetzlaff
KENTUCKY
Nunn/Huddleston
LOUISIANA
Toledano/Benhett/McKeithar
MAINE
Smith/Hathaway
MASSACHUSETTS
Brooke/primary 9/19
MICHIGAN
Griffin/Kelley
MINNESOTA
Hansen/Mondale
MISSISSIPPI
Carmichael/Eastland
MONTANA
Hibbard/Metcalf
NECRASKA
Curtis/Carpenter
NEW HAMPSHIRE
primary 9/12
NEW JERSEY
Case/Krebs
NEW MEXICO
Domenici/Daniels
NORTH CAROLINA
Helms/Galifianakis
OKLAHOMA
Bartlett/Edmondson
OREGON
Hatfield/Morse
RHCDE ISLAND
Chaffee/Pell
SOUTH CAROLINA
Thurmond/Ziegler
SOUTH DAKOTA
Hirsch/Abourezk
TENNESSEE
Baker/Blanton
TEXAS
Tower/Sanders
VIRGINIA
Scott/Snong
WEST VIRGINIA
Leonard/Randolph
WYCHING
Hansen/Vir
September 7, 1972
Memorandum
To: Bob Haldeman
From: Charlie McWhorter
Re
Senate Campaign - 1972
At the present time there is general agreement that the greatest
threat to current Republican Senate seats is in South Dakota and Idaho. The
best prospects for a pickup are in Rhode Island, Virginia, North Carolina,
Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico. It should be noted
that there is every reason to think that the President should be able to
defeat McGovern in all of these states with the possible exceptions of
South Dakota and Rhode Island.
It is my strong recommendation that the media campaign on behalf
of the President in all of these states be kept flexible enough SO that
during the last four weeks of the campaign a major effort can be made on
behalf of our Senate candidates. This would require an ability to add the
name of our Senate candidates to billboards, literature and commercials.
In my opinion, it is more important to make every effort to obtain the
election of Republican Senators in these states than it is to squeeze out
a few extra percentage points to add to the President's plurality. I don't
think we can count on the President's coattails to be the decisive factor
for our Senate candidates. Rather, we will have to make a deliberate effort
to mobilize resources from the President's effort on their behalf. The
results should pay off in the election of additional Senators plus increased
political goodwill.
It should be noted that similar opportunities are available with
regard to many contests for the House of Representatives, but these would
require careful evaluation of all relevant factors before there was a
diversion of emphasis from the Presidential campaign.
ACTION MEMO - POLITICAL
We need to review the question of supplying, or directing financing,
to key Senate races. The two most likely in this regard are New Mexico
and South Dakota, according to Senator Scott.
HRHipm
9/12/72
Ifualiz
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races
Dent has prepared a factual analysis of the Congressional
races, indicating that the Republicans must hold all
current insumbent seats and win 39 new seats to reach
the 218 needed to organize the House. Ford's Southern
Democrate switchover project will not become important
unless the Republicans are close to 218. Dent's Tab A
picks the top 30 requiring attention.
Timmons independently reviewed the September 5 Congressional
Campaign Committee analysis. Timmons' picks are double under-
scored while Dent's are single underscored.
Malek's field organization can provide assessments of 50
important individual races by September 13. Malek's input
would be conjecture before then.
MacGregor's views will be checked September 7.
Teeter talked with an AMPAC representative on September 5
regarding access to their polls. Tester received a commit-
ment to obtain the 25 completed polls on September 8.
This analysis of the Congressional races will be resulmitted
when the additional information is acquired.
The only people involved in this project are Bill Timons,
Clark MacGregor, Fred Malek, Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson.
Harry Flemming has done an independent analysis for Clark
MacGregor but has not reviewed it with Mitchell or MacGregor.
GS/jb
THE WHITE HOUSE
Hru
WASHINGTON
9/12
September 5, 1972
To
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM/E. TIMMONS
PT
SUBJECT:
'72 Campaign
I would like to have primary White House responsibility for
keeping tabs on Senate and House races (incumbents and challengers)
during the campaign with Stan Anderson at 1701 as the principal
staffman on the assignment.
Working with the Re-Elect Committee's resources as well as my
congressional staff and their contacts I feel I am the best central
source for accumulating pertinent campaign information with
a low profile, of course -- and making any recommendations
necessary.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
OTHER
work out of Pac Hegon
34
LATE NEWS/MISCELLANY
NBC noted Harris Poll gives RN's bombing policy approval by
55-32. New Republic presents analysis of Hoffman, director of Dem
Senatorial Campaign Comm., on the Senate races. He doesn't feel
GOP can take control. He concedes 5 Dem seats are in trouble. --
New Mex, Okla, Georgia, N. Car., R.I., and in all 5 the RN margin
could make the difference. He doesn't feel Sparkman, Spong,
Metcalf, or McIntyre are in much trouble, nor that La. will be lost
to Dems due to split by McKeithen. And he sees 50-50 chance that
Dems can pick up Mich., Ky., S. Dak., Oregon, and Idaho. And
Hoffman has hopes for Texas, Iowa, and Delaware. But he's pessimistic
on S. Carolina, Maine, or Tenn. But article notes the Dem official is
"scrounging for the money his comm. needs."
Hodgson says Admin has cut the rate of inflation in half. It is
still around 3%, "and we have to work on it, 11 he said at a San Diego
news conference reported here by AP.
Albert denied he was drunk in a "small traffic" accident, which
the Post says ended w/a policeman driving Albert home. Albert
said damage was minor and "we settled it" at the scene.
A world fortune-tellers conference predicted RN will be re-elected
and Taiwan annexed to the PRC in 5-6 years. They also predicted no
WW-III, but said cold wars could occur.
AP leads from Minneapolis: "The largest crowd of McG's post-
convention campaign turned out to hear EMK appeal for the same
support for McG as Minnesotans gave JFK."
AP also reports on the NET-chosen "average American" who'd
back EMK if he could but is unsure of whom he'll vote for after a
rare, close-up week on the road w/McG. His opinion of McG is
improved, but he's concerned about McG's "indecision", lack of
dynamism, and he acknowledges RN's successes.
OLYMPICS
CBS film from Olympics where the closing day's mood was in
such sharp contrast to the opener. Athletes on film saying politics
must be kept out, indicating interest in less nationalistically oriented
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 6
19
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races
Dent has prepared a factual analysis of the Congressional
races, indicating that the Republicans must hold all
current incumbent seats and win 39 new seats to reach
the 218 needed to organize the House. Ford's Southern
Democrats switchover project will not become important
unless the Republicans are close to 218. Dent's Tab A
picks the top 30 requiring attention.
Timmons independently reviewed the September 5 Congres-
sional Campaign Committee analysis. Timmons' picks are
double underscored while Dent's are single underscored.
Where Dent and Timmons agree three underlines appear.
Malek's field organization can provide assessments of 50
important individual races by September 13. Malek's input
would be conjecture before then.
MacGregor's views will be checked September 7.
Teeter talked with an AMPAC representative on September 5
regarding access to their polls. Teeter received a commit-
ment to obtain the 25 completed polls on September 8.
This analysis of the Congressional races will be resubmitted
when the additional information is acquired.
The only people involved in this project are Bill Timmons,
Clark MacGregor, Fred Malek, Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson.
Harry Flemming has done an independent analysis for Clark
MacGregor but has not reviewed it with Mitchell or MacGregor.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
KBD
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Congressional
Races
The GOP Congressional election picture is brighter today
than on July 10 when I submitted the last memorandum,
primarily because the President is stronger. The Con-
gressional Campaign Committee is privately predicting
a minimum pickup of 20-25 seats, recognizing we could win
more if the tide is strong enough. Jerry Ford is still
working on the prospect of Southern Democrat switchovers
after the election if we are close enough to the magic
number of 218 seats required to organize the House. The
present lineup is 178 GOP (plus Brad Morse vacancy) and
255 Democrats (plus Governor Edwards of Louisiana vacancy).
In order to win 218 we must keep everything we have,
including the Brad Morse vacancy, and pick up 39.
Attachment A contains a listing in state alphabetical
order of the top 10 incumbent seats which need defending
(most vulnerable on our side); our best 10 possible
pickups; and then our second best 10 possible pickups.
Attachment B contains a listing of congressional seats
targeted by the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee,
defensively and offensively. The ones underscored in red
need priority attention to win.
TOP 10 THAT NEED DEFENDING
1. California 6
Mailliard
2. Colorado 1
McKevitt
3. Iowa 1
Schwengel
4.
Iowa 4
Kyl
5.
Indiana 10
Dennis
6. Michigan 2
Esch
7. Minnesota -6
Zwach
8. Tennessee 8
Kuykendall
9. Utah 2
Lloyd
10. Wisconsin 3
Thomson
TOP POSSIBLE PICKUPS (TOP 10)
1. California 36
Ketchum (new seat)
2. California 42 (safe)
Burgener (new seat)
3. Illinois 17
O'Brien (new seat)
4. Indiana 11
Hudnut (Jacobs)
5. Maine 2
Cohen (Dem. open)
6. New York 26
Gilman (Dow)
7. North Carolina 4
Hawke (Dem. open)
8. Pennsylvania 9
Shuster (Rep. open)
9. South Dakota 2
Abdnor (Dem. open)
10. Washington 4
Bledsoe (McCormac) primary 9/19
POSSIBLE PICKUPS (SECOND 10)
1. Illinois 3
Hanrahan (new seat):
2. Illinois 10
Young (Mikva)
3. Illinois 11
Hoellen (Annunzio)
4. Illinois 22
Lamkin (Shipley)
5.
Indiana 4
Bloom (Roush)
6. Kentucky 6
Jackson (Dem. open)
7. Maryland 4
Holt (new seat)
8. Massachusetts 12
Weeks (Rep. open)
9. Mississippi 5
Lott (Dem. open)
10. New Jersey 12
Rinaldo (Rep. open)
CODE:
ND - NEW DISTRICT
RO - REPUBLICAN OPEN
DO - DEMOCRAT OPEN
PAIR - TWO INCUMBENTS
AS OF 9-5-72
* - INCUMBENT
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ALABAMA
2
*
Dickinson
Reeves
ALASKA
AL
Young
* Begich
ND
ARIZONA
4
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
CALIFORNIA
6
*
Mailliard
Boas
CALIFORNIA
7
Hannaford
* Dellums
ND
CALIFORNIA
11
Chase
Ryan
CALIFORNIA
18
* Mathias
Lavery
RO
CALIFORNIA
20
Moorhead
Binkley
-2-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CALIFORNIA
31
Valentine
*
C. Wilson
CALIFORNIA
34
Ratterree
* Hanna
CALIFORNIA
35
Brown
* Anderson
ND
CALIFORNIA
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
ND
CALIFORNIA
38
Snider
Brown
RO
CALIFORNIA
39
Hinshaw
Black
ND
CALIFORNIA
42
Burgener
Lowe
COLORADO
1
* McKevitt
Primary 9/12
COLORADO
4
Primary 9/12
* Aspinall
ND
COLORADO
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
-3-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CONNECTICUT
1
Rittenband
* Cotter
CONNECTICUT
2
* Steele
Hilsman
CONNECTICUT
5
Sarasin
* Monagan
ND
FLORIDA
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
FLORIDA
8
Thompson
* Haley
ND
FLORIDA
10
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
ND
FLORIDA
13
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
RO
GEORGIA
5
Cook
Young
RO
IDAHO
1
Symms
Williams
ND
ILLINOIS
3
Hanrahan
Coman
-4-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ND
ILLINOIS
10
Young
* Mikva
ILLINOIS
11
Hoellen
* Annunzio
ND
ILLINOIS
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
RO
ILLINOIS
21
Madigan
Johnson
ILLINOIS
22
Lamkin
* Shipley
INDIANA
2
* Landgrebe
Fithian
INDIANA
3
Newman
* Brademas
INDIANA
4
Bloom
* Roush
INDIANA
8
* Zion
Deen
INDIANA
10
* Dennis
Sharp
-5-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
INDIANA
11
Hudnutt
* Jacobs
IOWA
1
* Schwengel
Mezvinsky
IOWA
2
Ellsworth
* Culver
PAIR
IOWA
4
* Kyl
* Smith
KANSAS
2
McAtee
* Roy
KANSAS
3
* Winn
Barsotti
KENTUCKY
3
Kaelin
* Mazzoli
DO
KENTUCKY
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
LOUISIANA
3
Treen
Run-Off 9-30
MAINE
1
Porteous
* Kyros
-6-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
DO
MAINE
2
Cohen
Violette
MARYLAND
1
* Mills
Hargreaves
ND
MARYLAND
4
Holt
Fornos
MARYLAND
6
Mason
* Byron
MASSACHUSETTS
4
Primary 9/19
Drinan
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
5
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
MASSACHUSETTS
6
Moseley
* Harrington
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
12
Weeks
Studds
MICHIGAN
2
* Esch
Stempien
MICHIGAN
12
Serotkin
* O'Hara
-7-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
Huber
ND
MICHIGAN
18
*
Broomfield
Montgomery
MINNESOTA
6
*
Zwach
Nolan
MINNESOTA
7
Haaven
* Bergland
DO
MISSISSIPPI
2
Butler
Bowen
DO
MISSISSIPPI
4
Cochran
Bodron
DO
MISSISSIPPI
5
Lott
Stone
DO
MISSOURI
6
Sloan
Litton
RO
MISSOURI
7
Taylor
Thomas
MONTANA
1
* Shoup
Olsen
NEW JERSEY
3
Dowd
*
Howard
-8-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW JERSEY
6
* Forsythe
Brennan
NEW JERSEY
9
Schiaffo
* Helstoski
RO
NEW JERSEY
12
Rinaldo
English
ND
NEW JERSEY
13
Maraziti
Meyner
NEW MEXICO
2
Presson
Runnels
NEW YORK
1
Boyd
* Pike
ND
NEW YORK
3
Roncallo
Bales
NEW YORK
6
Gallagher
* Wolff
NEW YORK
23
* Peyser
Ottinger
NEW YORK
24
Vergari
* Reid
-9-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW YORK
26
Gilman
* Dow
RO
NEW YORK
31
Mitchell
Castle
NEW YORK
32
Koldin
* Hanley
RO
NEW YORK
33
Walsh
Kadys
NEW YORK
36
* Smith
McCarthy
DO
NORTH CAROLINA
4
Hawke
Andrews
RO
NORTH CAROLINA
9
Martin
Beatty
RO
OHIO
4
Guyer
Nicholas
OHIO
8
* Powell
Ruppert
RO
OHIO
16
Regula
Musser
-10-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
OHIO
19
Parr
* Carney
RO
OKLAHOMA
1
Run-Off 9-19
Jones
DO
OKLAHOMA
2
Toliver
McSpadden
PENNSYLVANIA
5
* Ware
Franco
RQ
PENNSYLVANIA
9
Shuster
Collins
20
Hundr
*Grucles
PENNSYLVANIA
14
Catarinella
*
Moorehead
SOUTH CAROLINA
1
Limehouse
* Davis
SOUTH DAKOTA
1
Vickerman
* Denholm
DO
SOUTH DAKOTA
2
Abdnor
McKeever
TENNESSEE
3
*
Baker
Sompayrac
- 11 -
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
TENNESSEE
6
Beard
*
Anderson
TENNESSEE
8
*
Kuykendall
Patterson
TEXAS
5
Steelman
*
Cabell ?
PAIR TEXAS
13
*
Price
* Purcell
UTAH
1
Primary 9/12
McKay
UTAH
2
* Lloyd
Primary 9/12
VIRGINIA
4
Daniel
Gibson
RO
VIRGINIA
6
Butler
Anderson
RO
VIRGINIA
8
Parris
Horan
RO
WASHINGTON
1
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
WASHINGTON
4
Primary 9/19
*
McCormack
-12-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
WISCONSIN
1
Primary 9/12
* Aspin
WISCONSIN
3
* Thomson
Primary 9/12
PAIR WISCONSIN
7
* O'Konski
* Obey
WISCONSIN
8
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
WYOMING
AL
Kidd
* Roncalio
H M
9/11
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date 9/6/72
TO:
WILLIAM TIMMONS
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
Before deciding on this issue, a
complete plan for all possible
endorsement requests (incumbents
and challengers in gubenatorial
races, House races, Senate races,
etc.) has been requested. It is
being put together for your re-
view by the end of the week by
Mary Ann Allin.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
BT
SUBJECT:
Endorsement of Incumbents
Attached is a memo from Mary Anne Allin proposing Presidential
letters to GOP incumbents seeking re-election to the House.
While I favor the letters, there are problems connected with
this approach such as Bob Price (R) and Graham Purcell (D)
running against each other in a new Texas district. Purcell
is one of our Vietnam supporters. Also once released there
will be great pressure from GOP challengers for similar
endorsements and this could get into problems with other loyal
southern Democrats. Would Don Riegle get one?
Guidance please.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Bill Timmons
VIA:
Roland Elliott
Mr
FROM:
Mary Ann Allin mad
SUBJECT:
Endorsement of Congressional Candidates,
PART I: Incumbent Republicans in the House
In view of the President's remarks at the Convention and his directions
since then to the writing staff, we have changed the language of our
endorsement letter and are now ready to send out Presidential letters to
all incumbent Republican Members of the House except those who have
already been endorsed (list attached), those who still face primary
opposition (list attached) and those troublesome people whom you might
identify who ought not to receive the President's blessing (eg, Pete
McCloskey and John Ashbrook). With your approval the letters will be
prepared and dated for September 7.
Unless it seems advisable at a later date, we do not intend to send any
other "mass mailing" from the President to our candidates, but I hope
your staff will encourage Members to ask for Presidential messages
tied to political events between now and the election. We will do
everything possible to assist their re-election.
September 1, 1972
Incumbent Republican Members of the House Who Have Been Endorsed
by the President to date:
Harold Collier, Ill. 6th
Elwood Hillis, Ind. 5th
Peter Peyser, N.Y. 23rd
Carleton King, N.Y. 29th
William Keating, Ohio 1st
Herman Schneebeli, Pa. 17th
September 1, 1972
Incumbent Republican Members of the House Who Face September
Primary Challenges:
John Rhodes, Ariz. 1st
Bill Frenzel, Minn. 5th
Sherman Lloyd, Utah 2nd
Alvin O'Konski, Wis. 7th
Glenn Davis, Wis. 9th
P - 408 (2nd revision)
RESTRICTED USAGE
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 7, 1972
Dear Phil///:
As you begin your 1972 campaign for re-election to
House of Representatives, you have my very best
wishes for well-earned and deserved success. I
also want to convey my heartfelt appreciation for the
ability you have unfailingly demonstrated in your dis-
tinguished service to the American people. Your
leadership in advancing the programs and policies of
this Administration has been vital, and we will be
counting on your help in the days and years ahead to
form what I have called a "new majority. 11 To
accomplish this, we need able men and women in the
Congress who share my conviction that Americans
are bound together by our common ideals, and that
with a renewed spirit of confidence and cooperation
we can make our nation and the world a better, safer
place in which to live.
It is my earnest hope that all citizens of Alaskays 5th
District will join our New Majority by registering,
voting, and actively supporting Paul/Politito, for he
is a man deeply committed to bringing positive change
to our country.
Sincerely,
RN.MAA.RI E.WET
9/6
Recent + E+ n
Hoursta Watergate - cuc in - clausen
obser conn.
J8m V. cwc.
Back then Sen
,
H on each, incop
1
poll St data, set in each
- at end summary of
each guy
he out definitely can't
win + cant lose
- note "oneam not
- that wenning on lp.
10-14crunch "races"
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
tonorrow
the
public
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
do
eate
Several people have talked to me about the need for us to help House
and Senate candidates in their races. I talked to Bob Finch about this
and also, as you recall, we talked about it on the phone.
There is one problem that has occurred to me which must be borne in
callo
mind in any decision we make in this area. We have to remember that
Connally's organization and our major labor supporters are supporting
assure
only the President for re-election and are making a great point of the
fact that they are supporting Democratic candidates for the House and
Senate.
We Ao nothing at this -
We also have to have in mind that a number of Democratic Governors
and party leaders at the State and local level are sitting on their hands
as far as the Presidential election is concerned and even quietly are
giving us some support. On the other hand, they are strongly for the
Democratic candidates for the House and Senate.
What this adds up to is that anything we do in behalf of House and Senate
candidates must be very low profile. Also, I am convinced that we should
not do anything which is too overt in this area until approximately three
weeks before the election
If for example we began a national campaign at this time aimed at helping
Republican candidates for the House and Senate, many Democratic Party
loyalists across the country who are cool on McGovern would become
terrified at the thought of losing their House and Senate seats and might
10:38
join up with McGovern in order to avoid a debacle. Incidentally, this also
means that MacGregor, Mitchell, Finch, Dole and others who talk to the
Press should go very light on any linkage between the Presidential campaign
and the campaigns for the House and Senate at this time. We must
have
No
a
lot of national news stories two months before the election that the Nixon
operation is going all out to elect Republicans to the House and Senate.
2 -
What can be done at this time is to lay out a very well planned PR operation
in special Senate races and a few House races to begin a few weeks before
the election. If we begin it then, it will be too late for the Democratic pro's
to do very much with regard to turning their organization for McGovern
in order to save House and Senate seats. On reflection, I believe that the
most effective way to help them is to use direct mail and radio. Television
tends to be too high profile and of course the same goes for billboards.
I know I mentioned the possibility of billboards to you in our telephone
conversation, but on reflection I think this is a bad idea. As far as bill-
boards are concerned generally incidentally, I do not believe we should
use them for the Presidential campaign. There is no kind of activity
which tends to be a target for those who claim we have too much money
?
than the use of billboards. Having in mind the fact that they have only
marginal effect in any event I want you to see that the PR group knocks
off billboard advertising wherever they can across the country. For us
to have great numbers of flashy billboards and McGovern to have none
would give the opposition a ready-made issue.
On the other hand, I am disappointed that on my trip out here I have yet
to see a Nixon bumper strip except for the one on Presley's car. There
may be some conscious PR decision not to use bumper strips, and if SO
I understand. If, on the other hand, we are going to use them, I would
think that a concerted campaign could now be begun to get out the
President Nixon bumper strips--don't use the Reelect the President one
for the reason I have mentioned previously. I would think this would be
an excellent project for our younger people to hit parking lots on a certain
day, perhaps the 15th of September. As we have learned from experience,
don't hand them out at rallies because people will not put them on. They
will only take them home and put them on their mirrors.
The new Bachrach pictures were very satisfactory as far as everybody
was concerned. I want you personally to follow up to see that they are
distributed as broadly as possible and as soon as possible, particularly
the ones of the family, of Pat and myself, and the new smiling ones of
me should be used to replace the ones that are currently distributed to
our campaign people and to the Press. Give me a report on what progress
you make in this respect.
- 3 -
It is important to get our surrogates out immediately this next week
AND
on an all out attack on McGovern's more extreme positions. Inoted
There ave
in the Washington Rest story indicating that McGovern during the
stones
past week subtlely was changing his line and was sounding more and
more like a Democratic candidate in the old Democratic tradition.
CC
We must not let him get away with this. It is vital to keep him on the
defensive on his most vunerable issues am inclined to think
that
the issue that is most difficult for his to finesse is Vietnam and defense.
He cannot move too far off of his extreme position here or he will lose
his whole left-wing support. For example, the quote from Fortune with
regard to his belief that the Communists would not test him because
they would not want to lose his friendship would be very effective in
carrying out George Meany's line that he just doesn't understand the
Communist threat. It is very important here to see that this kind of
material is used only by highly sophisticated people in a way that
McGovern will not be able to respond that his loyalty or patriotism is
being questioned. Every statement should be prefaced with the idea
that he is naive and lacks judgment on appraising the Communist threat.
But when you have such a collection of statements--that the Russians
were rearmed after World War II only because we did, that he would
throw Thieu out and have a Communist government come into power in
South Vietnam, the statement in Fortune to which have referred, the
quote from the Newsweek interview which Henry say he has given to
Colson and which doubt Newsweek will use these and others
provide ammunition that could be used for over the next two months in
a devastating way.
Obviously every effort should also be made to keep reminding people of
his extreme welfare plans and his high budget which would result in an
increase in taxes. It is vitally important to keep the ball on his side of
the court--in other words, have the debate be about his plans and not
about our tax reform plan which may come later on in the campaign.
Finally, in view of the Harris poll results, our positive speakers should
hammer courage, integrity, world leader, and of course the hard line
in Vietnam knowing that we find a very receptive audience to begin with
on these points. All speakers should now start taking the line of calling
upon people to join the new majority, give the President the chance to
finish the job that he has begun at home and abroad.
THE PRESIDENT
Copy 2
Copy
2
of
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT :
1972 U.S. Senate Races
This memorandum briefly describes the status of the 33 U.S. Senate
races. The attachment describes each race with the current estimation
of the chances for victory by Clark MacGregor (CM), Harry Dent (D),
Fred Malek (FM), Bill Timmons (BT), and Robert Marik (RM), along
with Bob Teeter (T). The comments by MacGregor, Dent, Timmons,
Teeter, and Malek's Field Operation are given below for the 18 swing
states:
Alabama
1
Dent believes Blount could win because of the straight party ticket
voting. Also, a black is entering the race. This will pull votes from
Sparkman.
Teeter says Blount is moving up in the polls and is now within
10-15%, up substantially from the Wave II polls.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists Alabama as 5th in its
6 priority races (Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Carolina,
Alabama, and Montana). In each of these races they will give the
Republican candidate $70 - 75,000. Dent says they are asking 1701
for an additional $500,000 to distribute between September 15 and 30.
Georgia
Dent says Fletcher Thompson is coming up but would have had a
better chance against Gambrell. Maddox's blast at McGovern helped
the President and Thompson. The President's coattails and personal
identification with Thompson would be very helpful.
2
Teeter indicates there are no polls available. He knows
Thompson personally and characterises him as an "opportunist"
and "free spirit".
MacGregor and Malek concur in this assessment of Thompson
(opportunist). They urge money and organizational support for
Thompson.
Timmons says Thompson is a long shot but possible.
Idaho
Dent says the race is closer than previously believed. The
President could really help with personal identification.
MacGregor and Malek say there are still party wounds from the
tough primary. Teeter concurs. All indicate McClure needs money
and organizational help.
Timmons believes McClure should win.
Kentucky
Dent urges more Presidential identification with Nunn, who
should win.
Teeter reports Nunn is moving up in recent polls.
MacGregor says the field organization is good, but Malek says
Nuna needs money. There is some question about a possible commit-
ment of money made by Mitchell to get Nunn to run.
Timmons says Nunn is a winner.
Louisiana
Dent reports that the Republican candidate, Ben Toledano, could
have a chance in the three-and possibly four-way race. Bennett
Johnson is the conservative Democratic candidate. Ex-Governor
McKeithan, who is running as an Independent will split the Demo-
cratic vote. McKeithan is also urging a black to run to pull votes
from Johnston.
3
Maine
Teeter urges a non-political trip by the President to show his
support of Smith as a national figure. She needs no money.
Michigan
Dent believes this is very close though he sees Griffin with a
slight edge.
Teeter says the polls have had Griffin ahead and behind twice
in the last year. Busing may fade some by November. Teeter
urges Administration assistance in the form of grants or projects,
especially in the Detroit tri-county area.
MacGregor says Griffin needs money and Administration assistance.
Malek indicates that all telephone and door-to-door canvassing is
done jointly by the President and Griffin's capipaigm /
Montana
Dent says Hibbard has a better chance than previously thought.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Montana listed 6th. A
Presidential sweep could pull Hibbard in.
Teeter says there are no polls available. Mitchell is well liked
in Montana.
nd
Malek says Hibbard is a poor candidate with a poor organization.
New Mexico
Dent gives Domenici a 50/50 chance.
Teeter says Domenici needs money.
Malek reports that neither the President's nor Domenici's organizations
are very strong. Domenici needs money and organizational support.
Timmons says Domenici hayes good chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee lists New Mexico 2nd in
its list of 6 top priority seats.
4
North Carolina
Dent says Helms has a 50/50 chance but badly needs idenfification
with the President.
Teeter's month old data indicates Helms is behind in spite of the
President's huge lead.
MacGregor and Malek indicate Helms needs money but organiza-
tional help more.
Timmons believes Helms is a good possibility.
The Senatercal Campaign Committee has North Carolina fourth.
Oklahoma
Dent says Bartlett really needs identification with the President.
Bellmon's gratuitory slap at Bartlett recently didn't help.
Tetter urges a Presidential visit because Bartlett needs the
identification and the President is so far ahead there is little risk.
Malek reports Bartlett has real organizational problems.
Timmons says Bartlett has a fighting chance.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Oklahoma 3rd.
Oregon
Dent says Hatfield should win because McCall is still staying out.
Teeter says the race is very close because Hatfield's approval
rating is so low (35% by Republicans). McCall is very popular (65%
by Republicans) and should be encouraged to help Hatfield.
Malek says Hatffeld has no money problems but the 1701 and
Hatfield organizations are not helping each other to the degree that
they should.
Timmons says Hatfield will win.
5
Dent says this is our best chance for a Democratic seat, but
he wonders whether Chafee will vote with the President.
Tester says the race is closer than most believe, and Chafee's
lead is the "softest" in the country.
Malek says money is not a problem but needs organizational help.
Chafee has been "playing anti-Nixon games" so far.
Timmons says Chafee is a winner.
The Senatorial Campaign Committee has Rhode Island at the
top of their list of six.
?
South Dakota
Dent believes this should be our #1 defensive battle. Hirsch is
coming on strong and would totally support the President. Abouresk
is identificalitiso closely with McGovern.
Teeter says Hirsch was way behind but since Abourezk is so
close to McGovern, Hirsch has a chance.
Malek urges money for Hirsch but no Presidential visit.
Timmons says Hirsch is a sure loser.
Texas
Dent says this should be our #2 defensive battle.
Teeter believes Tower will win, because the President is so strong.
Malek says money is no problem and the organizational problems are
resolving themselves. 1701 and Tower are working their telephone
campaigns together.
Virginia
Dent says Scott could only win if the President won by a landslide.
Even Harry Byrd doesn't like Scott. Scott would vote with the President
if elected.
6
Malek urges some money for organizational help but suggests
that Scott be kept off the road and that there be no Presidential visit.
The possibility of sending Cliff White into Virginia was raised.
Timmons says Virginia is a long shot.
To summarize, the President should visit Texas and Oklahoma.
In the other states, money and behind the scenes organizational help
should be given.
GS:pm
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Alabama
Blount (R)
D
RM, FM
Sparkman (D)
CM, T
Alaska
Stevens (R)
RM, CM, T
D, FM
Guess (D)
Arkansas
Babbitt (R)
T, D, RM
McClellan (D)
FM, CM
Colorado
Allott (R)
RM, CM,
(Democrat
FM, D, T
Primary 9/12)
Delaware
Boggs (R)
RM, CM,
Biden (D)
FM, D, T
Georgia
Thompson (R)
RM, CM,
Nunn (D)
FM, D, T
Idaho
McClure (R)
D, BT
RM, CM,
Davis (D)
FM, T
Illinois
Percy (R)
RM, CM,
D
Pucinski (D)
FM, T
Iowa
Miller (R)
T, RM, CM,
Clark (D)
FM, D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Kansas
Pearson (R)
T, CM, FM
RM
Tetzlaff (D)
D
Kentucky
Nunn (R)
BT
RM, D
CM, FM
T
Huddleston (D)
Louisiana
Toledano (R)
D
RM, CM
T
Johnston (D)
FM
McKeithan (I)
Maine
Smith (R)
FM, BT, D
T, RM, CM
Hathaway (D)
Mass.
Brooke (R)
T, CM, FM
(Democratic
RM, D, BT
Primary 9/19)
Michigan
Griffin (R)
T, RM,
Kelley (D)
CM, FM.
D
Minnesota
Hansen (R)
D
T, CM,
Mondale (D)
FM, RM
BT
Mississippi
Carmichael (R)
RM, FM.
Eastland (D)
CM, T,
Montana
Hibbard (R)
D
T, RM,
Metcalf (D)
CM, FM
Nebraska
Curtis (R)
T, RM, CM
FM
Carpenter (D)
D
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
N.H.
(Republican
FM
T, RM, CM
D
Primary 9/12)
McIntyre (D)
N.J.
Case (R)
T, CM, FM,
Krebs (D)
RM, D, BT
New Mexico
Domenici (R)
RM, D, BT
T, , CM, FM
Daniels (D)
N. C.
Helms (R)
RM, CM.
T
Galifianakis (D)
FM, D, BT
Oklahoma
Bartlett (R)
RM, CM,
T
Edmondson (D)
FM, D, BT
Oregon
Hatfield (R)
BT
RM, CM,
T, D
Morse (D)
FM
Rhode Island
Chafee (R)
BT
T, RM, CM,
Pell (D)
FM, D
S. Carolina
Thurmond (R)
T, RM,
Ziegler (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
S. Dakota
Hirsch (R)
T, CM,
RM, D
Abourezk (D)
FM
Tennessee
Baker (R)
T, RM,
Blanton (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
Republicans
Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
State
Candidates
Texas
Tower (R)
T
CM, FM,
Sanders (D)
RM, D
Virginia
Scott (R)
I, RM,
Spong (D)
CM, FM
D, BT
W. Virginia
Leonard (R)
I, RM,
Randolph (D)
CM, FM
D
Wyoming
Hansen (R)
T, FM,
RM
Vinich (D)
CM, D
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT MARIK
SUBJECT:
Senate Races
Listed below are the candidates for the United States Senate in every
state where a seat is up for election:
(Incumbents are denoted by an asterisk (*), and the winning percentage is
shown in parentheses.)
State
Candidates
Comments
Alaska
Stevens
(R) *
(59.9%)
App't by Gov. Hickel at
death of Sen. E.L. Bartlett
Guess
(D)
Speaker, Alaska House of
Representatives
Alabama
Sparkman
(D) *
(61.0%)
Dean of the Alabama
Congressional Delegation
Blount
(R)
Former Postmaster General
Baines
(Comm)
Arkansas
McClellan
(D) *
(unopposed)
Seeking Sixth Term; Chairman
Senate Appropriations Comm.
Babbitt
(R)
Veterinarian
Colorado
Allott
(R) *
(58.0%)
Seeking fourth term
Vollack
(D)
State Senator
Haskell
(D)
Former State Legislator
-2-
State
Candidates
Comments
Delaware
Boggs
(R) *
(59.1%)
Seeking third term
Biden
(D)
Lawyer:New Castle County
Council Rep.; 29 yrs. old
Mijka
(Amer)
Georgia
Nunn
(D)
Defeated incumbent Gov. Carter
appointee DAVID GAMBRELL in
runoff election 8/29/72.
Thompson
(R)
Incumbent fifth District
Congressman
Idaho
Davis
(D)
President, Idaho State U.
McClure
(R)
First District Congressman
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Illinois
Percy
(R) *
(54.9%)
Seeking second term
Pucinski
(D)
Congressman-11th District
Gross
(Soc.Labor)
Halstead (Soc.Workers)
Iowa
Miller
(R) *
(62.2%)
Seeking third term
Clark
(D)
AA to 2nd District
Congressman John Culver
Rocap
(AIP)
Kansas
Pearson
(R) *
(52.1%)
Seeking third full term
Tetzlaff
(D)
Anesthesiologist
Miller
(Con.)
Hadin
(Pro.)
3
-3-
State
Candidates
Comments
Kentucky
Huddleston
(D)
Broadcasting Executive
Nunn
(R)
Former Governor
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Moffett
(Peo)
Embry
(Amer.)
Louisiana
Johnston
(D)
State Senator
(Incumbent Dem. Ellender
recently deceased. . Wife of
Dem.Gov. Edwin Edwards app't
to fill rest of Ellender term.)
McLean
(R)
Geologist
Lyons
(Amer.)
Maine
Smith
(R)*
(58.9%)
Seeking fifth term
Hathaway
(D)
Second Dist. Congressman
Massachusetts
Brooke
(R) *
(60.7%)
Seeking second term
O'Leary
(D)
Boston City Councilman
Droney
(D)
District attorney
Lynch
(D)
Gurewitz
(Soc.Work.)
Michigan
Griffin
(R) *
(55.0%)
Seeking second full term;
Senate Minority Whip
Kelley
(D)
Michigan Attorney General
-4-
State
Candidates
Comments
Minnesota
Mondale
(DFL) *
(54.9%)
Seeking election to
Second Full Term
Hansen
(R)
Lutheran Minister
Franklin
(DFL)
Griffin
(DFL)
Leaf
(DFL)
Heck
(Indust. Gov't.)
Mississippi
Eastland
(D) *
(73.3%)
Chairman, Senate Judiciary
Committee
Carmichael
(R)
Automobile Dealer
Montana
Metcalf
(D) *
(53.2%)
Seeking third term
Hibbard
(R)
State Senator
Nebraska
Curtis
(R) *
(61.0%)
Seeking reelection to
fourth term.
Carpenter
(D)
State Senator
New Hampshire
McIntyre
(D) *
(54.1%)
First elected Nov. 1962
Powell
(R)
Former Two Term Governor
Cobleigh
(R)
State House Speaker
Brock
(R)
Former U.S. Attorney
Booras
(R)
New Jersey
Case
(R) *
(61.6%)
Seeking fourth term
Krebs
(D)
Former U. S. Rep.
Freund
(Amer.)
-5-
State
Candidates
Comments
Levin
(Soc.Labor)
Wiley
(Concerned Voter's Voice)
New Mexico
Domenici
(R)
Unsuccessful GOP Candidate
for Governor in 1970.
Daniels
(D)
Former State Rep.
(Dem. Incumbent retiring)
N. Carolina
Galifianakis (D)
4th Dist. Cong. ;defeated inc.
in run-off primary
Helms
(R)
Oklahoma
Edmondson
(D)
Inc. Congressman; 2nd Dist.
(Dem. inc. retiring)
Bartlett
(R)
Former Governor
Oregon
Hatfield
(R) *
(51.7%)
Seeking second term
Morse
(D)
Former U.S. Senator
Rhode Island
Pell
(D) *
(67.7%)
Seeking third term
Chafee
(R)
Former Gov.; Former Sec.
of the Navy
South Caro.
Thurmond
(R)*
(62.2%)
Seeking reelection to
lina
fourth term
Ziegler
(D)
S. Dakota
Abourezk
(D)
U.S. Rep; 2nd District
Hirsch
(R)
Former State Senator
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Tennessee
Baker
(R) *
(55.7%)
Seeking Second Term
Blanton
(D)
Inc. 7th Dist; Congressman
-6-
State
Candidates
Comments
Texas
Tower
(R) *
(56.4%)
Seeking reelection to second
full term
Sanders
(D)
Virginia
Spong
(D) *
(58.5%)
Seeking second term
Scott
(R)
Inc. old 8th District
Henderson
(Indep.)
W. Virginia
Randolph
(D) *
(59.5%)
Seeking reelection to third
full term
Leonard
(R)
State Senator
Wyoming
Hansen
(R) *
(51.8%)
Seeking second term
Vinich
(D)
Former AA to Democrat
Congressman Roncalio
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 10, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. Haldeman
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
your
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Senate Races
Attachment A contains a brief rundown on the 33 U. S.
Senate races. Calculating conservatively and without
a Presidential sweep, we should win 14, are favored in
4 more, and are close in 6. The Democrats should win
5 and are favored in 4. If we win all those where we
are sure winners, favored, and close (which is possible
with a Presidential sweep and monetary assistance) the
new lineup would be 50 - 50, with Byrd of Virginia as
a Democrat. If he switched, we would prevail 51 - 49.
Races where money could have the best impact are: Georgia,
Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South
Dakota. Secondary money states are: Alaska, Idaho,
Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia.
Kevin Phillips and Evans-Novak rate the South as the
biggest potential pickup area: Virginia, North Carolina,
Georgia, Alabama and saving the Kentucky seat. Also,
they rate New Mexico and Oklahoma as possibilities in
border areas, with Rhode Island as the best pickup bet
in the Northeast. The southern potential depends on the
Nixon coattails', no Wallace candidacy and Democrat
problems. Unfortunately, most southern ballots are
arranged to encourage split ticket voting.
Page Two
July 10, 1972
Here is how I rate these races at present:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Colo. (R)
Alas. (R)
Ga.
(1))
Ala.
(D)
Ark.
(D)
Del.
(R)
Mich. (R)
Ky.
(R)
Mont. (D)
La.
(D)
Idaho (R)
R. I. (D)
N. M. (1))
N. H. (D)
Minn.
(D)
Ill.
(R)
Texas (R)
N. C. (1))
Va.
(D)
Miss.
(D)
Iowa
(R)
Okla. (D)
W. Va. (D)
Kan.
(R)
S. D. (R)
Maine (R)
Mass. (R)
Neb. (R)
N. J. (R)
Ore. (R)
S. C. (R)
Tenn. (R)
Wyo. (R)
14
4
6
4
5
ATTACHMENT A
1972 Senate Races
Alabama: Sen. John Sparkman (D) is favored. Republican
Winton Blount has a chance with a heavy Presidential vote.
The National Democratic Party of Alabama (LDPA) has a
candidate who will split Sparkman's black vote.
Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) is favored. This will be a
tough fight against Democrat Gene Gess, but Stevens should
win.
can't
be
eat
Arkansas: Sen. John McClellan (1)) should win. McClellan
won his run-off against David Prior, and should win against
Republican Wayne Babbitt. Win Rockefeller is pushing
Babbitt with some hope.
ol<
5
Colorado: Son. Gordon Allott (R) should win. The Democrat
nominee will be either Floyd Haskell or Tony Vollack.
Neither is a credible candidate.
little party proe, but OK
Delaware: Sen. J. Calcb Bocas (R) should win. Democrat
challenger is 27-year-old Joseph Biden, who is well-
financed and aggressive.
coming
up;
letter
offaghell
Georgia: Sen David Gambrell (D) will have close fight with
GOP Rep. Fletcher Thompson Democrat primary not over
and my other
NOT Ballot
Gambrell could be upset there. Very close
L.maddor streng
Lnere
Idaho: Sen. Lon Jordan is not seeking re-election.
Republican should win. The Republicans have a real horse
race between ex-Governor Bob Smylie, Glen Wegner, ex-
closer appected rase
Congressman George Hansen, and Congressman Jim McClure,
a
who should get the bid. Democrats are Rose Bowman (Woman
Lib) ; Byron Johnson, a close ally of Frank Church; William
Dows, President of Idaho State University; and State Attorney
wind really
General Tony Park who will get the nomination.
help
Page TWO
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
2012
Illinois: Sen. Charles H. Percv (R) should win, but is
unpopular with many Republicans because of his criticism
of the President's Vietnam policy. The Democrat is
Congressman Roman Pucinski.
Lok, sure
Iowa: Sen. Jack Miller (R) should win. The Democrat is
Dick Clark, a political unknown.
sere win
Kansas: Sen. James B. Pearson (R) should win after a
nuisance primary. The Democrat is A. O. Tetzlaff,
political unknown.
shld a in they granted very not
Kentucky: Sen. John Sherman Coope (R) is not seeking re-
election. Republican Louie Numb made a good showing in
the primary. The Democrat is Dee Huddleston, and is supported
by the state administration. Very close.
beelila change, thed musa
worth runner
conseripem
totally beef we a
then Toledon
Louisiana: Sen. Allen J. El ender and (D) favored, but faces sein
tough primary with Bennett Johnston, who lost close primary
race for Governor. Would support RN. Republicans have
we Willen
C. M. McClean filed, but probably will not run. Dave Treen
may go for the House where poll shows should win vacant
S
seat. Can't afford another state race.
same
India
Maine: Sen. Margaret Chase Smith (R) should win after a
to
wind
very successful primary race against Robert Monks. Democrat
asst
#5
is Congressman William Hathaway.
3.
oksure
Massachusetts: Sen. Edward W. Brooke (R) should win.
Democrat is John Droney, a district attorney from Middlesex
county.
but close, a slief
Michigan: Sen. Robert P. Griffin (R) favored: Democrat is
Attorney General Frank Kelley, who will feel the brunt of
the busing issue.
Page Three
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
Minnesota: Sen. Walter r. Mondale (D) should win. The
endorsed Republican, Phillip Hansen is a hard-working
and dynamic Lutheran minister.
la long shot, sentamp comm$
(
dark house a gamble
u
Mississippi: Sen. James O. Eastland. (D) should win. The
Republicans have an attractive candidate in Gil Carmichael.
Montana: Sen. Lee Metcalf above (D) is favored. Republican :
easywin
Better pourd
State Senator Henry Hibbard received the nomination, and
has a chance. There is some disaffection among Montanans
over Netcalf's temper and other habits. Preven coulddojol
now comp top Em 5
possil
Nebraska: Sen Carl Curtis (R) OK should win. Curtis' age
could have been an issue, but the Domocrats nominated
Terry Carpenter, age 72.
cant beathim
New Hampshire: Sen. Thomas McIntyre (D) is favored. Filing
9/12
deadline is July 13. Likely GOP candidates are Bob Hill,
Wesley Powell, Peter Boras, Dave Brock, and Speaker of the
House Marshall cobleigh. Cobleigh has a strong base of
support in the State House of Representatives.
OK
New Jersev: Sen. Clifford P. Case (R) should win. The
Democrat is Paul Krebs, who headed the state Consumer
Protection agency until the Governor let him go.
New Mexico: Sen. Clinton Anderson (D) is retiring. Republican
even
Pete Dominici, 1970 governor candidate, has an excellent
slaven 50150
organization and is doing the ground work. The Democrat is
Jack Daniels, who was defeated in the 1970 Gubernatorial
primary. Is heavy Presidential vote will help. Close.
cote
$ 19
Page Four
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
50/20/2020 10 pull over
North Carolina: Sen. Everett Jordan (D) was upset for
re-election by Rep. Nick Galifianakis who will be a
fairly good candidate. The Republican is conservative
TV station owner Jesse Itelms He is gotting many Democrat
endorsements. This will be close. RN coattails will help.
Oklahoma: Sen. Fred Harris (D) is not seeking re-clection
aim
Republican Dewev, Bartlett has a hard fight, but with a
Rent
good Presidential vote, he could make it. There are nine
Really
Democrats in the primary (Aug. 22) but Congressman Ed
a
Edmondsion will probably prevail. Close.
10 tope andie
Oregon: Sen. Mark O. Hatfield (R) should win.
came has an
excellent organization, and he has mended many fences.
McCell
Rumor persists that Governor Tom McCall might try to run
as an independent, but the logistics of doing that before
souting
the filing deadline (Aug. 29) are extremely difficult.
He is chairman of the delegation to the national convention,
which would seem to call for unity. The Democrat is
Wayne Morse, who has age against him.
Rhode Island: Sen. Claiborne Pell (1) Republican
#1012
criffie
John Chafee is favored. A May poll showed him with a
two-to-one odge. Poll's war record is becoming a major
issue. The Presidential vote will be a help to Chafee.
South Carolina: Sen. Strom Thurmond (R) should win The
Democrats are John Dolt Culbertson and Nick Zeigler, who
will get the nomination.
South Dakota: Sen. Karl Mundt retiring. This will be close.
The Democrat, Congressman James Abourez, is a slight favorite -
more so if McGovern is the Presidential nominee. He has
been announcing all of the federal grants resulting from
the flood - this has hurt. The Republican is ex-state senate
leader Bob Hirsch. Informal media polls have shown a close
race.
Page Five
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
OK
Tennessee: Sen. Howard JI. Baker (R) should win. The
most likely Democrat is Rep. Ray Blanton. The primary is
August 3. The Presidential vote will help Baker.
atoe.
Texas: Sen. John Tower (R) favored. Tower would have had
an casier race against Yarborough; Barefoot Sanders has no
record to score and he appears less liberal than he is.
A big Presidential vote will help Tower.
canonly
Virginia: Sen. William B. Spong, Jr. (D) is favored, but
nen
Polantial
w/a
THE
Republican Rep. William Scott has a chance with the
expected heavy Presidential vote. Scott's organization is
a vote
beginning to take shape and campaign finance activities
are beginning.
And
West Virginia: Sen. Jennings Randolph (D) should win.
The Republican is State Senator Louise Leonard, whose
campaign shows little strength.
cantin
Wyoming: Sen. Clifford P. Hansen (R) should win. Hansen
is well-financed, and a late spring poll indicates he is
very popular. The Democrat is Mike Vinich, who will not
be able to hold the Democrats in line.
OK-sure
-
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 10, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. Haldeman
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
As
SUBJECT:
1972 Governor Races
The Democrats should continue to keep the lead in
Governorships (29-21 now, excluding ours in Puerto Rico,
Samoa, and the Virgin Islands), but we have the potential
for closing the gap by one or two seats. Of the 18 Governor-
ships up this year, we should win three, are favored in two,
and are close in five. The Democrats should win four and are
favored in four.
The tough fights will be in Illinois (R), New Hampshire (R),
West Virginia (R), Missouri (D), and North Dakota (D). We
are favored to pick up Rhode Island (D), and are expected to
lose our seat in Indiana (R).
States where money would have the best impact are the five
close states listed above, with N. C. (D) and S. D. (D) worth
watching, depending on the Presidential race.
These judgments are based on conservative evaluation from our
side, and not predicated on a Presidential sweep.
Here are the evaluations:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Del. (R)
Vt. (R)
Ill. (R)
Ind. (R)
Ark. (D)
Iowa (R)
R.I. (D)
N.H. (R)
Mont. (D)
Kan. (D)
Wash. (R)
W.Va. (R)
N.C. (D)
Texas (D)
Mo. (D)
S.D. (D)
Utah (D)
N.D. (D)
3
2
5
1
4
Page Two
The President
July 10, 1972
Gov. Luis Ferre should keep his GOP seat in Puerto Rico.
Attachment "A" has more information on each race.
Attachment
ATTACHMENT A
1972 GOVERNOR RACES
1. Arkansas: Gov. Dale Bumpers (D) should win. The
hope is to keep him under 60%. The Republican is Len
Blaylock.
2. Delaware: Gov. Russell W. Peterson (R) is the endorsed
candidate, but could be forced into divisive primary at
July 17 convention with Buckson. The strongest and most
likely Democrat is State Treasurer Mrs. Emily Womack.
Other Democrats are Earl McGinness, Sherman Tribbett, Ed
Sandstrom, and William Quillen. Republican should win.
3. Illinois: Gov. Richard B. Ogilvie (R) won the primary
easily. His chances continue to improve. The Democrat
is Daniel Walker, who was the surprise primary winner
over a Daley candidate. Walker led Ogilvie by two-to-
one right after the primary, but this was probably anti-
Daley sentiment. Walker's victory probably helps Ogilvie.
Very close race here.
4. Indiana: Otis (Doc) Bowen is the Republican nominee. GOP
Gov. Ed Whitcomb is barred from re-election. The Democrat
is ex-Governor Matthew Welsh. Democrat favored.
5. Iowa: Gov. Robert D. Ray (R) should win. Lt. Gov.
Jepson has dropped out of the primary, leaving the field
to Ray. Democrats are John Tapscott, James Lynch, and
Paul Franzenburg, who will probably get the nomination.
6. Kansas: Gov. Robert Docking (D) is very popular throughout
the state and is favored. Republicans are Morris Kay,
Reynolds Shultz, John Anderson, and Ray Frisbie. Anderson
is leading, but Frisbie is President of the Kansas Farm
Bureau, which gives him a strong constituency.
7. Missouri: Gov. Warren E. Hearnes (D) is barred from
re-election. Democrats are Edward Dowd, William Morris,
Earl Blackwell, and Joseph Teasdale. Morris and Teasdale
are the leading contenders. Republicans are R. J. King,
Steve Burns, Harvey Engie, Gene McNary, and Kit Bond,
who should get the nomination. Close, with GOP chance.
Page Two
Attachment A - 1972 Governor Races
July 10, 1972
8. Montana: Gov. Forrest Anderson (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Lt. Gov. Thomas L. Judge.
Republican is Ed Smith. Democrat is favored.
9. New Hampshire: Gov. Walter Peterson, Jr. (R) will have
close race. GOP primary opposition is from Bob Hill
and Meldrin Thompson. Peterson should win the primary.
Hill's campaign is unimprossive and Thompson was the
1970 AIP candidate. If Peterson loses, the top three
offices could go Democrat, especially if Cotton's seat
should become vacant. The Democrat is Rocer Crowley,
who lost to Peterson in 1970. Close race since Peterson
hurt on tax proposal. (Hill looking at Gov. and Senate
races).
10. North Carolina: Gov. Robert N. Scott (D) is barred from
re-election. The Democrat is Skipper Bowles, a fresh
face who beat the establishment. Republican is Jim
Holshouser, who has a chance, but must reunite the GOP
after a divisive primary. It would take an RN sweep to
win. Democrat favored.
11. North Dakota: Gov. William Guy (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Congressman Arthur Link.
The endorsed Republican is Lt. Gov. Richard Larsen.
Robert McCarney, a maverick Republican, is expected
to insist on a primary. This could keep the GOP
from uniting until September. Race will be close.
12. Rhode Island: Gov. Frank Licht (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Phillip Noel. Republican is
Herbert DeSimone, (DOT Assistant Secretary). Late
April newspaper poll shows DeSimone two-to-one over
Noel. Republican favored.
13. South Dakota: Gov. Richard Kneip (D) is hurt by his
income tax proposal, which was defeated by the Legislature.
Republican is Carve Thompson, a druggist with four years'
experience in the State House of Representatives. Democrat
favored.
14. Texas: Gov. Preston Smith (D) was defeated. Democrat
is Dolphe Briscoe. Republican is right-wing State Sen.
Henry Grover. Democrat should win.
Page Three
Attachment A - 1972 Governor Races
July 10, 1972
15. Utah: Calvin L. Rampton (D) is seeking an unprecedented
third term. Republican is Nicholas Strike. Democrat
favored.
16. Vermont: Gov. Deane C. Davis (R) is not seeking
re-election. Republicans are Jim Jeffords, Richard
Snelling, John Burgess, and Luther Hackett, who will
probably get the nomination. Democrats are John Downs
and Leo O'Brien. Close, but Republican favored.
17. Washington: Gov. Daniel J. Evans (R) will face either
Albert Rosellini, who is leading, or Martin Durkan.
Evans defeated Rosellini in 1964. Republican should
win.
18. West Virginia: Gov. Arch A. Moore, Jr. (R) has compiled
an excellent record. The Democrat is Jay Rockefeller
with a big primary win and plenty of money. Close.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY S. Dent
BEL
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Congressional Races
The GOP Congressional campaign committee expects a pickup
of 12 to 25 House scats in 1972, with an outside chance
that a Presidential sweep and several southern switch
overs could provide the magic number of 40 needed to
organize the House. Prodicting is tough, however,
considering past results, as in 1956 when we lost 2 in
the Eisenhower victory and LBJ's gain of 37 in 1964.
In 1970 we lost 9, in 1968 we gained 2 and in 1966 we
jumped 47.
Reapportionment will help US pick up several scats, and
we should score on some weak Democrats, especially where
we lost in 1970.
The present lineup is 178 GOP (plus the Brad Morse vacancy)
and 255 Democrats (plus the GOV. Edwards' Louisiana vacancy).
It takes 218 to organize.
One reason we have a problem winning 218 is because we will
be letting 30 to 35 seats go uncontested; whereas, the
Democrats will have 3 to 5 uncontested (Harsha and Brown of
Ohio and Spence of: South Carolina for certain).
Page Two
1972 Congressional Races
Attachment A shows my evaluation of the 435 House races
for 1972. This is based on checks with our leaders in
the states and the campaign committee. It works out as
follows:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
137
41
29
61
167
We may want to consider channeling some fund help to
some key congressional races. These can better be
evaluated within the next two months.
ATTACHMENT A
1972 U. S. Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Alabama
2
1
1
3
1. J. Edwards-R
X
2. Dickinson-R
X
3. Nichols-D
X
4. Bevill-D
X
5. R. Jones-D
X
6.
Buchanan-R
X
7. Flowers-D
X
Alaska
]
1. Begich
X
Arizona
2
1
1
1. Rhodes-R
X
2. Udall-D
X
3. Steiger-R
X
4. Primary-Sept.
X
12
Arkansas
1
3
1. Alexander-D
X
2. Hills-D
X
3. Hammerschmidt-R
X
4.
Primary-Aug. 29
X
Page Two
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
California
14
4
1
15
9
1.
Clausen-R
X
2.
Johnson-D
X
3.
Moss-D
X
4.
Leggett-D
X
5.
Burton-D
X
6.
Mailliard-R
X
7.
Dellums-D
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9.
Edwards-D
X
10.
Gubser-R
X
11.
No incumbent
X
12.
Talcott-R
X
13.
Teague-R
X
14.
Waldie-D
X
15.
McFall-D/R
X
16.
Sisk-D
X
17.
McCloskey-R
X
18.
Mathias-R
X
19.
Holifield-D
X
20.
No incumbent
X
21.
Hawkins-D
X
22.
Corman-D
X
23.
Clawson-R
X
24.
Rousselot-k
X
25.
Wiggins-R
X
26.
Rees-D
X
27.
Goldwater-R
X
28. Bell-R
X
29.
Danielson-D
X
30.
Royball-D
X
31.
Wilson-D
X
32.
Hosmer-R
X
33.
Pettis-R
X
34.
Hanna--D
X
35.
G. Auderson-D
X
Page Three
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
California (con't)
36. No incumbent
X
37.
No incumbent
X
38.
No incumbent
X
39.
No incumbent
X
40.
B. Wilson-R
X
41.
Van Doerlin-D
X
42.
No incumbent
X
43. Veysey-R
X
Colorado
1
2
1
1
1. McKevitt-R
X
2.
Brotzman-R
X
3. Evans-D
X
4.
Aspinall-D
X
5.
No incumbent
X
Connecticut
2
1
3
1. Cotter-D
X
2.
Steele-R
X
3.
Giamo-D
X
4.
McKinney-R
X
5. Monagan-D
X
6.
Grasso-D
X
Delaware
1
1. duPont-R
X
Page Four
Attachment Is
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Pavored
Florida
5
7
3
1.
Sikes-D
X
2. Fuqua-D
X
3.
Bennett-D
X
4. Chapell-D
X
5.
No incumbent
X
6.
Young-R
X
7.
Gibbons-D
X
8. Haley-D
X
9. Frey-R
X
10.
No incumbent
X
11. Rogers-D
X
12.
Burke-R
X
13.
Pepper-D
X
14.
Fascell-D
X
15.
No incumbent
X
Georgia
1
2
7
1. Hagan-D
X
2.
Mathis-D
X
3.
Brinkley-D
X
4.
Blackburn-R
X
5.
No incumbent
X
6.
Flynt-D
X
7.
Davis-D
X
8.
Stuckey-D
X
9.
Landrum-D
X
10.
Stephens-D
X
/
Page Five
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Hawaii
1
1
1.
Matsunaga-D
X
2. Mink-D
X
Idaho
2
1.
No incumbent
X
2.
Hansen-R
X
Illinois
11
1
3
9
1.
Metcalfe-D
X
2.
Murphy-D
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4.
Derwinski-R
X
5.
Kluezynski-D
X
6.
Collier-R
X
7.
Collins-D
X
8.
Rostenkowski-D
X
9. Yates-D
X
10. Mikva-D
X
11.
Annunzio-D
X
12.
Crane-R
X
13.
McClory-R
X
14.
Erlinborn-R
X
15.
Arends-R
X
16.
Anderson-R
X
17.
No incumbent
X
18. Michel-R
X
19.
Railsback-R
X
20.
Findley-R
X
21.
No incumbent
X
22.
Shipley-D
X
23.
Price-D
X
/
24. Gray-D
X
Page Six
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Indiana
5
2
]
3
1. Madden-D
X
2.
Landgrebe-R
X
3.
Brademas-D
X
1. Roush-D
X
5. Hillis-R
X
6. Bray-R
X
7. Meyers-R
X
8. Zion-R
X
9. Hamilton-D
X
10. Dennis-R
X
11. Jacobs-D
X
Iowa
2
2
1
1
1.
Schwengel-R
X
2. Culver-D
X
3. Gross-R
X
4. Kyl-R
X
5.
Scherle-R
X
6. Mayne-R
X
Kansas
3
1
1
1.
Sebelius-R
X
2. Roy-D
X
3. Winn-R
X
4. Shriver-R
X
5.
Skubitz-R
X
/
Page Seven
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Kentucky
2
3
2
1.
Stubblefield-D
X
2. Natcher-D
X
3.
Mazzoli-D
X
4. Snyder-R
X
5.
Carter-R
X
6.
No incumbent
X
7.
Perkins-D
X
Louisiana
1
6
1
1. Herbert-D
X
2. Boggs-D
X
3.
No incumbent
(Treen)
X
4. Waggonner-D
X
5.
Passman-D
X
6.
Rarick-D
X
7.
No incumbent
X
8.
No incumbent
X
Maine
1
1
1. Kyros-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
Maryland
3
2.
3
1. Mills-R
X
2. Long-D
X
3.
Sarbanes-D
X
4.
No incumbent
X
/
Page Eight
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Maryland (con't)
5. Hogan-R
X
6. Byron-D
X
7.
Mitchell-D
X
8. Gude-R
X
Massachusetts
2
I
2
5
2
1. Conte-R
X
2.
Boland-D
X
3.
Drinan-D
X
4. Donohue-D
X
5.
Morse-R
X
6.
Harrington-D
X
7.
MacDonald-D
X
8.
O'Neil-D
X
9. Hicks-D
X
10. Heckler-R
X
11.
Burke-D
X
12. Keith-R
X
Michigan
11
5
3
1. Conyers-D
X
2. Esch-R
X
3.
Brown-R
X
4.
Hutchinson-R
X
5.
G. Ford-R
X
6.
Chamberlain-R
X
7. Riegle-R
X
8.
Harvey-R
X
9.
VanderJagt-R
X
10.
Cederberg-R
X
11. Ruppe-R
X
/
Page Nine
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Michigan (con't)
12. O'Hara-D
X
13. Diggs-D
X
14.
Nedzi-D
X
15.
W. Ford-D
X
16.
Dingell-D
X
17.
Griffiths-D
X
18.
No incumbent
X
19.
Broomfield-R
or
McDonald-R
X
Minnesota
2
3
3
1. Quic-R
X
2.
Nelsen-R
X
3.
Frenzel-R
X
4. Karth-D
X
5.
Praser-D
X
6. Zwach-R
X
7.
Bergland
X
8.
Blatnik-D
X
Mississippi
2
2
l
1. Abernethy-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4.
Montgomery-D
X
5.
No incumbent
X
/
Page Ten
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Missouri
1
3
6
1. Clay-D
X
2.
Symington-D
X
3.
Sullivan-D
X
4. Randall-D
X
5. Bolling-D
X
6. No incumbent
X
7. NO incumbent
X
8. Ichord-D
X
9.
Hungate-D
X
10. Burlison-D
X
Montana
1
1
1. Shoup-R
X
2. Melcher-D
X
Nebraska
2
1
1. Thone-R
X
2. McCollister-R
X
3. Martin-R
X
Nevada
1
1. Baring-D
X
New Bampshire
2
1. Wyman-R
X
2.
Cleveland-R
X
/
Page Eleven
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
New Jersey
4
2
].
6
2
1.
Hunt-R
X
2.
Sandman-R
X
3.
Howard-D
X
4.
Thompson-D
X
5. Frelinghuysen-R
X
6.
Forsythe-R
X
7.
Widnall-R
X
8. Roe-D
X
9.
Helstoski-D
X
10.
Rodino-D
X
11.
Minish-D
X
12.
No incumbent
X
13.
No incumbent
X
14. Daniels-D
X
15. Patton-D
X
New Mexico
1
1
1.
Lujan-R
X
2.
Runnels-D
X
New York
11
3
8
14
3
1. Pike-D
X
2.
Grover-R
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4.
Kent-R
X
5. Wydler-R
X
6.
Wolff-D-L
X
7.
Addabbo-D-L
X
8.
Rosenthal-D-L
X
9.
Delaney-D-R-C
X
10.
Biaggi-D-C
X
/
J.L.
Brasco-D
X
12.
Chisholm-D-L
X
NA
Page Twelve
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Pavored
Close
Win
Favored
New York (con't)
13.
No incumbent
X
14.
No incumbent
X
15.
Carey-D
X
16. Celler-L
X
17.
Murphy-D
X
18.
Koch-D
X
19.
Rangel-D-R-L
X
20. Ryan-D-L
X
21.
Badillo-D-L
X
22.
Bingham-D-L
X
23.
Peyser-R-C
X
24.
Reid-D-L
X
25.
Fish-R-C
X
26.
DOW-D
X
27.
Robison-R
X
28.
Stratton-D
X
29.
King-R-C
X
30.
McEwen-R-C
X
31.
No incumbent
X
32.
Hanley-D
X
33.
No incumbent
X
34.
Horton-R
X
35.
Conable-R
X
36.
Smith-R-C
X
37.
Dulski-D-I,
X
38.
Kemp--R--C
X
39.
Hastings-R-C
X
North Carolina
3
2
G
1.
Jones-D
X
2.
Fountain-n
X
3. Henderson-D
X
/
4.
No incumbent
X
Page Thirteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
North Carolina
5. Mizell-R
X
6. Preyer-D
X
7.
No incumbent
X
8. Ruth-R
X
9.
No incumbent
X
10. Broyhill-R
X
11.
Taylor-D
X
North Dakota
1
1. Andrews-R
X
Ohio
14
2
6
1
1.
Keating-R
X
2.
Clancy-R
X
3.
Whalen-R
X
4.
NO incumbent
X
5. Latta-R
X
6.
Harsha-R
X
7. Brown-R
X
8. Powell-R
X
9.
Ashlcy-D
X
10. Miller-R
X
11.
V. Stanton-R
X
12.
Devine-R
X
13.
Mosher-R
X
14.
Seiberling-D
X
15. Wylic-R
X
16.
No incumbent
X
17.
Ashbrook-R
X
Page Fourteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Ohio (con't)
18. Hays-D
X
19. Carney-D
X
20. J. N. Stanton-D
X
21. Stokes-D
X
22. Vanik-D
X
23. Minshall-R
X
Oklahoma
1
1
3
1
1. NO incumbent
X
2.
No incumbent
X
3. Albert-D
X
4. Steed-D
X
5.
Jarman-D
X
6. Camp-R
X
Oregon
1
].
2
1. Wyatt-R
X
2.
Ullman-D
X
3. Green-D
X
4.
Della back-R
X
Pennsylvania
11
1
12
1
1. Barrett-D
X
2. Nix-D
X
3. Green-D
X
4.
Eilberg-D
X
5. Ware-R
X
6. Yatron-D
X
Page Fifteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Pennsylvania (con't)
7. Williams-R
X
8.
Biester-R
X
9.
No incumbent
X
10.
McDade-R
X
11.
Flood-D
X
12.
Saylor-R
X
13.
Coughlin-R
X
14.
Moorhead-D
X
15.
Rooney-D
X
16.
Eshleman-R
X
17.
Schnecbeli-R
X
18.
Heinz-R
X
19.
Goodling-R
X
20. Gaydos-D
X
21.
Dent-D
X
22.
Morgan-D
X
23.
Johnson-R
X
24.
Vigorito-D
X
25. Clark-D
X
Rhode Island
2
1.
Stigermain-D
X
2.
Tiernan-D
X
South Carolina
1
1
4
1.
Davis-D
X
2.
Spence-R
X
3.
Dorn-D
X
4.
Mann-D
X
5.
Gettys-D
X
6.
McMillan-D
X
/
Page Sixteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
South Dakota
]
1
1. Denholm-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
Tennessee
2
2
1
2
1
1. Quillen-R
X
2.
Duncan-R
X
3.
Baker-R
X
4. Evins-D
X
5. Fulton-D
X
6. Anderson-D
X
7.
Jones-D
X
8.
Kuykendall-R
X
Texas
2
1
18
3
1.
Patman-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
3. Collins-R
X
1. Roberts-D
X
5.
Cabell-D
X
6.
Teague-D
X
7.
Archer-R
X
8.
Eckhardt-D
X
9.
Brooks-D
X
10. Pickle-D
X
11. Pcrage-D
X
12. Wright-D
X
13.
Purcell-D
X
14. Young-D
X
15.
de La Garza-D
X
16. White-D
X
Page Seventeen
Attachment A
1972 Congrossional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Texas (con't)
17. Burleson-D
X
18.
No incumbent
X
19.
Mahon-D
X
20.
Gonzales-D
X
21.
Fisher-D
X
22. Casey-D
X
23. Kazen-D
X
24.
No incumbent
X
Utah
1
1
1. McKay-D
X
2. Lloyd-R
X
Vermont
1
1. Mallary-R
X
Virginia
5
1
1
2
1
1.
Downing-D
X
2. Whiiehurst-R
X
3.
Satterfield-D
X
4. No incumbent
X
5. Daniel-D
X
6.
No incumbent
X
7.
Robinson-R
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9.
Wampler-R
X
10.
Broyhill-R
X
Page Eighteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Washington
I
].
2
3
1.
No incumbent
X
X
2. Mceds-D
Hansen-D
X
3.
4. McCormack-D
X
X
5. Foley-D
6. Hicks-D
X
X
7. Adams-D
West Virginia
4
1. Mollohan-D
X
2. Staggers-D
X
3.
Slack-D
X
4.
Hechler-D
X
Wisconsin
2
2
1
3
1
X
1. Aspin-D
2. Kastenmeier-D
X
3. Thomson-R
X
4.
Zablocki-D
X
5. Reuss-D
X
6.
Steiger-R
X
7.
O'Konski-R
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9.
Davis-R
X
1
Wyoming
1. Roncalio-D
X
Totals
137
41
29
167
6]
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT H. MARIK
SUBJECT:
Status of Senate Races
The following analysis of the 33 Senate races of 1972 represents
the comments of Arthur Finkelstein, Cliff White, Ed Failor and myself.
Safe Republican Seats - no help necessary (10): Brooke (Mass.),
Case (N.J.), Boggs (Del.), Percy (I11.), Baker (Tenn.), Thurmond
(S.C.), Miller (Iowa), Curtis (Neb.), Allott (Colo.), Stevens
(Alaska). (Note: It might be appropriate to show some support
for Senator Baker, since Senator Brock is receiving much public
exposure in the context of the Presidential Youth Campaign.)
Safe Democratic Seats - no help could change the outcome (4):
Eastland (Miss.), McClelland (Ark.), Mondale (Minn.), Randolph (W. Va.)
States Where Help Could Be a Factor: (19) (The races where help
would be the most critical are denoted by asterisk.)
Alabama: Consensus is that Blount has a chance, although
he seems to be far behind Sparkman in early readings.
Assistance in forms other than money may be what is needed.
Georgia*: Fletcher Thompson's chances have dimmed with
the nomination of Nunn over Gambrell. Still a good oppor-
tunity for for Republicans to gain a seat, but money is needed.
Idaho: McClure is probably ahead of his Democratic opponent,
Davis. However, race is not certain, and he is thought
to be limited in financial resources.
Kansas: Pearson, the Republican incumbent should win.
However, he won only 52.1% of the vote in 1966, and
Democratic Governor Docking, seeking re-election, will
be a strong factor on the other side of the ticket.
Kentucky: Former Governor Nunn is thought to be ahead,
but not a sure winner. If he was persuaded to run in
part by 1701, then financial and other campaign support
may be appropriate.
-2-
Louisiana: The death of Senator Ellender creates an en-
tirely new situation. Little is known of the strength of
the candidates or the attitude of the voters. Overall
trends in the South make a strong Republican showing possible.
A thorough analysis should be performed of that race, with
the intent of providing help if the race is winnable.
Maine: There are some rumors that Senator Smith is in
trouble. Generally, these are discounted because of her
perennial strength in the state, and the anticipation
of a strong Nixon showing there. More information should
be obtained, and if help could be decisive, we should provide it.
Michigan*: Senator Griffin is in a tight race, and has
limited funds. We are already working closely with him
in door-to-door canvassing and telephone centers to identify
both Nixon and Griffin voters. Griffin was unable to
provide funds for his planned share of the telephone centers.
If the President is substantially ahead in Michigan, as
Yankelovich claims, Griffin may also have moved up. The
latest Teeter polls will tell.
Montana*: Metcalf should be beatable. His 1966 percentage
was only 53.2%. The President has huge leads in polls
of nearby states, and could provide a coattail effect for
the Republican candidate, Hibbard. The important thing
would be to avoid, if possible, active participation by
Mansfield. Money may not be a problem in Hibbard's race.
New Hampshire: The President should run well in New Hampshire.
McIntyre may be beatable. Judgment should be witheld until
the Republican nominee is determined on September 12th. Little
hard data now seems to be available on McIntyre's prospects.
New Mexico*: This contest represents one of our best
chances to pick up a seat. Domenici, the Republican is
thought to be ahead now. Daniels, the Democrat, has a lot
of money, and could buy the election if our man runs out
of funds.
North Carolina*: Another prime target to pick up a seat.
At the moment, the contest seems to be fairly even. We
should provide whatever help is needed for Jesse Helms
to win.
Oklahoma: The race looks even today. A big Nixon victory
should pull Dewey Bartlett in. He seems to have no money
problems.
-3-
Oregon: Wayne Morse may give Hatfield a hard race. We
should determine whether he needs additional resources.
Rhode Island*: Chafee said to be comfortably out in front.
Recent direct attacks by Democrats on his hawk-dove stands
on Vietnam have hurt somewhat. This looks like the most
vulnerable of the seats where we now have apparent large
leads. We should assure that Chafee does not lose for
lack of resources.
South Dakota*: The Democrat is now thought to be ahead
in this race for Mundt's seat. If the President has the
large lead reported in the Dakota Poll, then the Senate
seat should be winnable. A Senate campaign here is in-
expensive, and we should go all-out to try to preserve
this seat in the Republican column. The McGovern "coat-
tails" may work for us in South Dakota.
Texas*: Tower needs lots of help. We are working with
him on telephone canvassing. Any other form of help that
would be useful should also be offered where possible.
Virginia: The political shifts in this election year should
make Spong vulnerable. However, our candidate, Scott, is
thought to be weak. He should be offered total campaign
assistance even up to having someone like Cliff White
assigned to the campaign.
Wyoming: Hansen won in 1966 by only 51.8%. He should be
in better shape in 1972, and the President should do well
there. Modest financial backing may make all the differ-
ence in Wyoming.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT MARIK
SUBJECT:
Senate Races
Listed below are the candidates for the United States Senate in every
state where a seat is up for election:
(Incumbents are denoted by an asterisk (*), and the winning percentage is
shown in parentheses.)
State
Candidates
Comments
Alaska
Stevens
(R) *
(59.9%)
App't by Gov. Hickel at
death of Sen. E.L. Bartlett
Guess
(D)
Speaker, Alaska House of
Representatives
Alabama
Sparkman
(D)
(61.0%)
Dean of the Alabama
Congressional Delegation
Blount
(R)
Former Postmaster General
Baines
(Comm)
Arkansas
McClellan
(D) *
(unopposed)
Seeking Sixth Term; Chairman
Senate Appropriations Comm.
Babbitt
(R)
Veterinarian
Colorado
Allott
(R) *
(58.0%)
Seeking fourth term
Vollack
(D)
State Senator
Haskell
(D)
Former State Legislator
--2-
State
Candidates
Comments
Delaware
Boggs
(R) *
(59.1%)
Seeking third term
Biden
(D)
Lawyer:New Castle County
Council Rep. ; 29 yrs. old
Mijka
(Amer)
Georgia
Nunn
(D)
Defeated incumbent Gov. Carter
appointee DAVID GAMBRELL in
runoff election 8/29/72.
Thompson
(R)
Incumbent fifth District
Congressman
Idaho
Davis
(D)
President, Idaho State U.
McClure
(R)
First District Congressman
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Illinois
Percy
(R) *
(54.9%)
Seeking second term
Pucinski
(D)
Congressman-11th District
Gross
(Soc.Labor)
Halstead (Soc. Workers)
Iowa
Miller
(R) *
(62.2%)
Seeking third term
Clark
(D)
AA to 2nd District
Congressman John Culver
Rocap
(AIP)
Kansas
Pearson
(R) *
(52.1%)
Seeking third full term
Tetzlaff
(D)
Anesthesiologist
Miller
(Con.)
Hadin
(Pro.)
-3-
State
Candidates
Comments
Kentucky
Huddleston
(D)
Broadcasting Executive
Nunn
(R)
Former Governor
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Moffett
(Peo)
Embry
(Amer.)
Louisiana
Johnston
(D)
State Senator
(Incumbent Dem. Ellender
recently deceased. Wife of
Dem.Gov. Edwin Edwards app't
to fill rest of Ellender term.)
McLean
(R)
Geologist
Lyons
(Amer.)
Maine
Smith
(R) *
(58.9%)
Seeking fifth term
Hathaway
(D)
Second Dist. Congressman
Massachusetts
Brooke
(R)*
(60.7%)
Seeking second term
0 Leary
(D)
Boston City Councilman
Droney
(D)
District attorney
Lynch
(D)
Gurewitz
(Soc.Work.)
Michigan
Griffin
(R) *
(55.0%)
Seeking second full term;
Senate Minority Whip
Kelley
(D)
Michigan Attorney General
-4-
State
Candidates
Comments
Minnesota
Mondale
(DFL) *
(54.9%)
Seeking election to
Second Full Term
Hansen
(R)
Lutheran Minister
Franklin
(DFL)
Griffin
(DFL)
Leaf
(DFL)
Heck
(Indust. Gov't.)
Mississippi
Eastland
(D) *
(73.3%)
Chairman, Senate Judiciary
Committee
Carmichael
(R)
Automobile Dealer
Montana
Metcalf
(D) *
(53.2%)
Seeking third term
Hibbard
(R)
State Senator
Nebraska
Curtis
(R) *
(61.0%)
Seeking reelection to
fourth term.
Carpenter
(D)
State Senator
New Hampshire
McIntyre
(D) *
(54.1%)
First elected Nov. 1962
Powell
(R)
Former Two Term Governor
Cobleigh
(R)
State House Speaker
Brock
(R)
Former U.S. Attorney
Booras
(R)
New Jersey
Case
(R) *
(61.6%)
Seeking fourth term
Krebs
(D)
Former U. S. Rep.
Freund
(Amer.)
-5-
State
Candidates
Comments
Levin
(Soc.Labor)
Wiley
(Concerned Voter's Voice)
New Mexico
Domenici
(R)
Unsuccessful GOP Candidate
for Governor in 1970.
Daniels
(D)
Former State Rep.
(Dem. Incumbent retiring)
N. Carolina
Galifianakis (D)
4th Dist. Cong. ;defeated inc.
in run-off primary
Helms
(R)
Oklahoma
Edmondson
(D)
Inc. Congressman; 2nd Dist.
(Dem. inc. retiring)
Bartlett
(R)
Former Governor
Oregon
Hatfield
(R) *
(51.7%)
Seeking second term
Morse
(D)
Former U.S. Senator
Rhode Island
Pell
(D) *
(67.7%)
Seeking third term
Chafee
(R)
Former Gov.; Former Sec.
of the Navy
South Caro:
Thurmond
(R) *
(62.2%)
Seeking reelection to
lina
fourth term
Ziegler
(D)
S. Dakota
Abourezk
(D)
U.S. Rep; 2nd District
Hirsch
(R)
Former State Senator
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Tennessee
Baker
(R) *
(55.7%)
Seeking Second Term
Blanton
(D)
Inc. 7th Dist; Congressman
-6-
State
Candidates
Comments
Texas
Tower
(R) *
(56.4%)
Seeking reelection to second
full term
Sanders
(D)
Virginia
Spong
(D) *
(58.5%)
Seeking second term
Scott
(R)
Inc. old 8th District
Henderson
(Indep.)
W. Virginia
Randolph
(D) *
(59.5%)
Seeking reelection to third
full term
Leonard
(R)
State Senator
Wyoming
Hansen
(R) *
(51.8%)
Seeking second term
Vinich
(D)
Former AA to Democrat
Congressman Roncalio
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
ASD
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Senate Races
Attachment A contains a brief rundown on the 33 U. S.
Senate races. Calculating conservatively and without
a Presidential sweep, we should win 14, are favored in
4 more, and are close in 6. The Democrats should win
5 and are favored in 4. If we win all those where we
are sure winners, favored, and close (which is possible
with a Presidential sweep and monetary assistance) the
new lineup would be 50 - 50, with Byrd of Virginia as
a Democrat. If he switched, we would prevail 51 - 49.
Races where money could have the best impact are: Georgia,
Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South
Dakota. Secondary money states are: Alaska, Idaho,
Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia.
Kevin Phillips and Evans-Novak rate the South as the
biggest potential pickup area: Virginia, North Carolina,
Georgia, Alabama and saving the Kentucky seat. Also,
they rate New Mexico and Oklahoma as possibilities in
border areas, with Rhode Island as the best pickup bet
in the Northeast. The southern potential depends on the
Nixon coattails', no Wallace candidacy and Democrat
problems. Unfortunately, most southern ballots are
arranged to encourage split ticket voting.
Page Two
July 10, 1972
Here is how I rate these races at present:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Colo. (R)
Alas. (R)
Ga.
(D)
Ala.
(D)
Ark.
(D)
Del. (R)
Mich. (R)
Ky.
(R)
Mont. (D)
La.
(D)
Idaho (R)
R. I. (D)
N. M. (D)
N.H. (D)
Minn.
(D)
Ill.
(R)
Texas (R)
N.C. (D)
Va.
(D)
Miss.
(D)
Iowa (R)
Okla. (D)
W. Va. (D)
Kan. (R)
S. D. (R)
Maine (R)
Mass. (R)
Neb. (R)
N. J. (R)
Ore. (R)
S.C.(R)
Tenn. (R)
Wyo. (R)
14
4
6
4
5
ATTACHMENT A
1972 Senate Races
Alabama: Sen. John Sparkman (D) is favored. Republican
Winton Blount has a chance with a heavy Presidential vote.
The National Democratic Party of Alabama (NDPA) has a
candidate who will split Sparkman's black vote.
Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) is favored. This will be a
tough fight against Democrat Gene Gess, but Stevens should
win.
Arkansas: Sen. John McClellan (D) should win. McClellan
won his run-off against David Prior, and should win against
Republican Wayne Babbitt. Win Rockefeller is pushing
Babbitt with some hope.
Colorado: Sen. Gordon Allott (R) should win. The Democrat
nominee will be either Floyd Haskell or Tony Vollack.
Neither is a credible candidate.
Delaware: Sen. J. Caleb Boggs (R) should win. Democrat
challenger is 27-year-old Joseph Biden, who is well-
financed and aggressive.
Georgia: Sen. David Gambrell (D) will have close fight with
GOP Rep. Fletcher Thompson. Democrat primary not over, and
Gambrell could be upset there. Very close.
Idaho: Sen. Len Jordan is not seeking re-election.
Republican should win. The Republicans have a real horse
race between ex-Governor Bob Smylie, Glen Wegner, ex-
Congressman George Hansen, and Congressman Jim McClure,
who should get the bid. Democrats are Rose Bowman (Woman's
Lib) ; Byron Johnson, a close ally of Frank Church; William
Dows, President of Idaho State University; and State Attorney
General Tony Park who will get the nomination.
Page Two
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
Illinois: Sen. Charles H. Percy (R) should win, but is
unpopular with many Republicans because of his criticism
of the President's Vietnam policy. The Democrat is
Congressman Roman Pucinski.
Iowa: Sen. Jack Miller (R) should win. The Democrat is
Dick Clark, a political unknown.
Kansas: Sen. James B. Pearson (R) should win after a
nuisance primary. The Democrat is A. O. Tetzlaff, a
political unknown.
Kentucky: Sen. John Sherman Cooper (R) is not seeking re-
election. Republican Louie Nunn made a good showing in
the primary. The Democrat is Dee Huddleston, and is supported
by the state administration. Very close.
Louisiana: Sen. Allen J. Ellender (D) favored, but faces
tough primary with Bennett Johnston, who lost close primary
race for Governor. Would support RN. Republicans have
C. M. McClean filed, but probably will not run. Dave Treen
may go for the House where poll shows should win vacant
seat. Can't afford another state race.
Maine: Sen. Margaret Chase Smith (R) should win after a
very successful primary race against Robert Monks. Democrat
is Congressman William Hathaway.
Massachusetts: Sen. Edward W. Brooke (R) should win.
Democrat is John Droney, a district attorney from Middlesex
County.
Michigan: Sen. Robert P. Griffin (R) favored. Democrat is
Attorney General Frank Kelley, who will feel the brunt of
the busing issue.
Page Three
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
Minnesota: Sen. Walter F. Mondale (D) should win. The
endorsed Republican, Phillip Hansen, is a hard-working
and dynamic Lutheran minister.
Mississippi: Sen. James O. Eastland (D) should win. The
Republicans have an attractive candidate in Gil Carmichael.
Montana: Sen. Lee Metcalf (D) is favored. Republican
State Senator Henry Hibbard received the nomination, and
has a chance. There is some disaffection among Montanans
over Metcalf's temper and other habits.
Nebraska: Sen Carl Curtis (R) should win. Curtis' age
could have been an issue, but the Democrats nominated
Terry Carpenter, age 72.
New Hampshire: Sen. Thomas McIntyre (D) is favored. Filing
deadline is July 13. Likely GOP candidates are Bob Hill,
Wesley Powell, Peter Boras, Dave Brock, and Speaker of the
House Marshall Cobleigh. Cobleigh has a strong base of
support in the State House of Representatives.
New Jersey: Sen. Clifford P. Case (R) should win. The
Democrat is Paul Krebs, who headed the state Consumer
Protection agency until the Governor let him go.
New Mexico: Sen. Clinton Anderson (D) is retiring. Republican
Pete Dominici, 1970 governor candidate, has an excellent
organization and is doing the ground work. The Democrat is
Jack Daniels, who was defeated in the 1970 Gubernatorial
primary. A heavy Presidential vote will help. Close.
Page Four
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
North Carolina: Sen. Everett Jordan (D) was upset for
re-election by Rep. Nick Galifianakis who will be a
fairly good candidate. The Republican is conservative
TV station owner Jesse Helms. He is getting many Democrat
endorsements. This will be close. RN coattails will help.
Oklahoma: Sen. Fred Harris (D) is not seeking re-election.
Republican Dewey Bartlett has a hard fight, but with a
good Presidential vote, he could make it. There are nine
Democrats in the primary (Aug. 22) but Congressman Ed
Edmondson will probably prevail. Close.
Oregon: Sen. Mark O. Hatfield (R) should win. He has an
excellent organization, and he has mended many fences.
Rumor persists that Governor Tom McCall might try to run
as an independent, but the logistics of doing that before
the filing deadline (Aug. 29) are extremely difficult.
He is chairman of the delegation to the national convention,
which would seem to call for unity. The Democrat is
Wayne Morse, who has age against him.
Rhode Island: Sen. Claiborne Pell (D) Republican
John Chafee is favored. A May poll showed him with a
two-to-one edge. Pell's war record is becoming a major
issue. The Presidential vote will be a help to Chafee.
South Carolina: Sen. Strom Thurmond (R) should win. The
Democrats are John Bolt Culbertson and Nick Zeigler, who
will get the nomination.
South Dakota: Sen. Karl Mundt retiring. This will be close.
The Democrat, Congressman James Abourez, is a slight favorite -
more SO if McGovern is the Presidential nominee. He has
been announcing all of the federal grants resulting from
the flood -- this has hurt. The Republican is ex-state senate
leader Bob Hirsch. Informal media polls have shown a close
race.
Page Five
Attachment A
1972 Senate Races
Tennessee: Sen. Howard H. Baker (R) should win. The
most likely Democrat is Rep. Ray Blanton. The primary is
August 3. The Presidential vote will help Baker.
Texas: Sen. John Tower (R) favored. Tower would have had
an easier race against Yarborough; Barefoot Sanders has no
record to score and he appears less liberal than he is.
A big Presidential vote will help Tower.
Virginia: Sen. William B. Spong, Jr. (D) is favored, but
Republican Rep. William Scott has a chance with the
expected heavy Presidential vote. Scott's organization is
beginning to take shape and campaign finance activities
are beginning.
West Virginia: Sen. Jennings Randolph (D) should win.
The Republican is State Senator Louise Leonard, whose
campaign shows little strength.
Wyoming: Sen. Clifford P. Hansen (R) should win. Hansen
is well-financed, and a late spring poll indicates he is
very popular. The Democrat is Mike Vinich, who will not
be able to hold the Democrats in line.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR :
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT :
1972 U.S. Senate Races
This memorandum briefly describes the status of the 33 U.S. Senate races. The Tab
a factual ription of each race mation from Clark MacGregor (em)
Harry Dent Fred Malek, Bill Timmons, 4BT) and Bob Rolert Marik LRM is consolidated in the follow
ing summary.
(Fm)
Republicans
Boe Telter(T) Democrats
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Alaska
Stevens (R)
The attachment describes
each race with the current estimation
of the chonees for victory by
The comments by mac Greger,
Dent, Timmons, Teeter, and malels
Field operation is are given below for
the 18 seeving states:
Rep
Den
I Repist
abab. Sparkmon(D)v. Blount(R)
Win
Favored
Close Faver Uin
D
RM FM
alas- - Stevens (R)V. Guess(o) RM,MacG,T
D,FM
mac, ST
are - Bablite
TD,RM,FM FM
CMANG,
Colo - allott (R) v. (Dem Preneary 9/12) RM,CM,
Fm, 0,T
Del - -Boggs(R)v. Biden(s) RM,CM,
Fm, D,T
Ga - Thompson(R)v. nunn(0)
RM, cm
FM, D,T
td - McClure (R)U. Davis(o)
D
RM, cm,
FM, T
Ill - Percy (R)V. Pacinski (0) RM, cm,
Dent
Fm, D,
Joua- miller(R) v. Clark (D) FM
RM,CM,
Kan- - Rearoon(R) U. Tetzlaff B T,CM, FM
RM
Ky - num (R) U. Huddlesten (p)
RM,
cm,Fm
T
La - Toledano (R) v. Johnston (n)v.
me Keithan (one)
RM
T
cm,Fm
me - Smith (R) V. Hathwavey(D) FM
T,RM,cm
Rep
Desh
AR Win Far Olose Fae win
Moss Brooker.
(Rem Brinary 9/19) Rm
Tcm,
FM
Mick Griffind Kelly(o)
TRM,
LMFM
Minn the mendale(D)
Tcm,
FM, RM
miss Exatoned (n) )vCarmichael(R)
RMFM, RM, FM,
ment. Hilbard(R/v. Metecelf(0)
cm, T
T, T,RM, RM,
cm, FM.
nee. certis (R) U. (arporter(0)
FM
T, pm Rm, cm
Fm
T, R m,
n.H.
mcdntype (A) RepPuner 9/12
cm
nJ Boggs (R) v, Krebs
case T,C m, FM,
RM
Rep
Dem
Win Fae
Cle
Fae win
New m
Domeniciv.
Daniels(D)
RM,
TCM,
FM
n.c.
Helms(R)u.
RM,CM,
Galifandias
FM
T.
Olla
Bartlett (R)U.
RM,CM,
T
Edmendson (o)
FM
ore
RM,CM,
T, RPA,
FM
cm, FM
morse
RI Caffee (R),
T,Rm, T, RM,
cm, FM
Pell
So Carolina T, RM,
Thurmand (R/V. C M,FM
Phillips
not scientife pust prile
up unfo.
Tim
Ad me Clue- 2d - gd sh
win
BI Oraphee - a winner
Ky nunn - evenner
me Smith - god Il
Broode, case, AJ Hathield -wn
-Gala - - chance Bartlett - highting
- nm - Dornin go possil "
- Helms - ne "
no s
Long shots but poss
Thompon - Ga.
Scote - 44
Pracer- Tenn - very gd is
Lose munt seat
"Real hully - net 3"
BT- better info Tues
Sen + BT-AMPAC Hse Comp Commis - polling into
Bueld / Sen,
BT to meet Bill Berenoon +
use fellows
-This week
Rep
Den
Uin Favered
close Favered Ucn
SD
Hersch(R)
T,cm, RM.
above
FM
Tenn Baller(R)v.
T,Rm,
cm,Fn
Blanton
TX Town(R)u.
T
CM,FM
RM
Saunders
t
TRM,
vascote (R)U,
cm,
FM
speny Henderson(&) (D)v.
T
W.Va Leonard (R/U.
RM,
Randoeph(0)
cm, FM
anyo Hansen Vinua (R)U,
T,EM,
RM
cm,
MF
H
Un
F
S
1972 U.S. Senate Races
Altachen
briefly
This memorandum descubes
the status of the 33 U.S. Senate races
Included's w
Information from Clark MacGreger,
Hany Dent, Fred malea, Bill
and Bol Mail
Timmons, and Bob Teeter, in The
attachment is a factual Description of
is consolidated in
each race. The summary below
consolidates their assessment the of
the races now:
Dent
ala - letter Blount comingon,
a black cand who will 606
cotes Drl sparkman
-P crattails more helphal
beel Dallot of St party voting.
alas - Slevens favered
9/15 in
But another
500,000 to district
Sen camp Com Rating -
70 15,000 each to top 6
RT
nm
Dent desagrees
alta
Top6
a little, leel
n.c
nc higher than
ala
Okea
mont
Can save
- Expect te hold everything including
SD. the hardest Hersh coming
mundt
seat
on strong + will still w/P.
- whe x MeG's (aberureze)
- Keep a Rep voice in wash
S D - - 155/ defenseve battle
TX - 2nd If
MCG- a cool recept in so
Gov 10ml - smell br/head dun
1
ala - Comments
T- Blocent moving up,
w/in 10-15%
D- shought chance voting, better
2
Ga
Findelstein deary poll
T - no polling avail, Thompsen openions
all over map, a pree opinit
D - mere Difficult than ag/Gcm,
FM - got lane needs $ +
P could really help.
cm any asis, carge 8
Rm - needs
3
to T- - Party wounds, could
help needs movey
cm rum - Needs money AND
OF
RM - Needs money
4
KeNT.
&T- & Nunn - moving up
FM - needs + hard te raise
cm - Fuld oxy OK
Confusion re/J re/J J me commitments
RA - as
5
ha- nothing else
Dent only
6
me.-
T- could have tough
RM
we; Peould really
help- a Poiset - great
RM, cm,Fm - spends ne $
nate figure
7
mich.
T- as dose as you canget,
behind + alead twice
Busing pade eynor. may
RM, cm, EA- - needs $
admin could help
al Deptal grants
Fm- Griffen needs eggs
someplace beside bresing
RM. - P+ G iffin campaign
close w/ telephone & doen
to deer
8)
Ment
Fm Albord- - a perx cand, perr org
RM- P wattails could mathol pull in
T- no solling, but tilled in mont
AH.
a
nH
FM- - Powell will wen
primary + have poorer
chance ag 1 me Inlyre
T- want til after pumay
10
nm
T- Domenici needs 8,
RM - Doniels has lot of $
go camp, gol ory,
EM -norther Pa Deman org
is poor - so apd
off staff, need SI
11
N.C
- Data - I me old, much
ticket splitting d/ Helms
behavel; P lidge lead
RM - Galifanilas - hi vesil
pumory * Helms needs
CM/FM needs $ torg help
name recognition
12
oocea
T- P could really help, Phas
big leads; little real
/
3
alla
FM - real Lg press
but me & plass
CA
- 1701 org not in
4
One
T- very close, Hatheld's
up rat 35% low - only 2-3%
ahead 65%
- me all any popular,
get him to help Hatheld'
Pslld presly mecale
FM - Hat - me $ proers,
cry depse te us but are
rate Hat + our any
not expeng
15
1
RI
T- close, and can't help.
FM - Chappee needs no $ but
needs any help to get rest te P
Rm - chaffee - softest Rep
leadin country
16
SO,
T- Herson way behind at 15th
above very Lose to me G
17
SDF Herseh - soliet but not too dem
-get $, no P visit
FM- give Hersa $ , no Prisit
Rm- real choncelut " 11
estry Rn $ in St
18
TX
T- Tower will wen, but
prol is Sanders wa
consere Ren
- P Towed very strong so help
FM - Towey proe is Tower,
$ OK, org working tellotal
- Tower not receptive to advere
RM - 170 - Telephone only
w/Tower TRn n
19
the
va
T- a poll in priled now,
FM - some $ per org, get
faces in P ad lead,
deep Scott off road
P- - no visit w/ Scott
Rm. - sendy lift White in to help
T- -
P could campaign + help in :
TX + -OAla
overt - as little outside
now,
comp, but use $ +
change
FM
later
support beh scenes organes
need me G voting record
to our cands - are
Sen comp Comm.
all Info
was St That
Deminuk
was - Ted Stevens (R) - Gene Guess(D)
alal- -
Sparkman V. Red Blocent
Jim Baines
and - me Clellan Wayne Bablitt (R)
9/12
colo -
allott (R) U. Dem Primes
Dem primay voluett Hasaell
Del - Boggs U. Joseph Baden V.
Gu - Sam Nunn (D) U. Fletcher Thempson R
Henry mijka (AIP)
dd - Bud Davis (0) V. James me are R
see - Charles Percy V. Pacensliv.
Ed Gross (soc - haber) t
Fiel Halsted (Soc aa
towa - Jack miller (R) v. Dull Clark(D)
U. alliam Rocat (AIP)
Kan. - James Pearson (R) U. auh Tedzlaff
V. Gene Miller (con)
U. Howard Hayden (Pro)
Ky - Walter Hiddleston (D) V.
Louie neenn (R) U.
Charles moffett (Peoples P)
ha - Bennet Johnston (b) cm
wil Embly (AP)
me Lean (R) v.
Repi loolley
for wine stregger
Hall Lyens (AP)
me - m. C Smith W Halthaway (n)
9/19 Mass- - Brooke (R) V. O'Leary (0),
Oroney (0), Lyner (D)
Gureurtz (Soc clars)
Mich - Griffin(R) U. Frank f. Kelley (D)
9/12 Minn - Hansen (R) 4. Walter Montale(or)
Franklen G reffer,
heal (DFL)
- Ind Goo Party- - Hell
miss -f Eastland (n) V. bu Carmchaile
ment -hee mentral n U. He Helbardk
Thel - cuitis (R) U. corpenter (0)
9/12
nH
- me Intyre (n) U. Powell (R),
cobleigh (R), Brerk (R),
Booras (R),
nJ - ce Case R U. Krebs
AP - Freund v.
Levin (Soc Lol) U Darles
Concerned Voters Voice Wiley
nm - Pete Domenici (R) u.f Daniels (0)
R.C. - nick Galifianaliste)v. Jease Helms (R)
Ollla - Bartlett (R) V. Edmondoon(s)
are - Hatfield (R) U merse (D)
RI - Pell (0) U. Oraffee (K)
SC - Thurmend (R) u. Ziegler (0)
SO - aboureza (D) V. Hersch (R)
Team - Baler (R) Blanton CR
TX - Tower (R) U. sonders (D)
Va - Spong (D) v. Scote (R) 2
Henderson (Ind)
WVa - Randelpa (D) U. Louse Leonard R
Wgo - Hansen (R) V. Vinich (0)
Where St Ticket where not
/
33-
me - me 8m
AH - ag/ me Intire - 9/12 RepRese
moss- Brooke
RI - Pele U. Orafee
N.J - Case
de - Percy
mech - Griffin
S.D. - mundt's seat
to -
nm - andersons seat
Tx - Tower
ha - Ellenders seat
ala - spark Blunt
Ga - Flether Thompson ? Nunn
Tern - Balcer
Key - neenn
nc- - Galifanilas V. (14ent)
Wa Ua - Jen Ran
So Can - Thermend
va - spory
Keen - Person
One - Hatheld seat
ment - metcall
? Colo - Domimill?
alas - slevens?
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
Br
SUBJECT:
'72 Campaign
I would like to have primary White House responsibility for
keeping tabs on Senate and House races (incumbents and challengers)
during the campaign with Stan Anderson at 1701 as the principal
staffman on the assignment.
Working with the Re-Elect Committee's resources as well as my
congressional staff and their contacts I feel I am the best central
source for accumulating pertinent campaign information - with
a. low profile, of course -- and making any recommendations
necessary.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
OTHER
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 29, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MACGREGOR
FROM:
HARRY FLEMMING
SUBJECT:
CONGRESSIONAL AND GUBERNATORIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
Preface
It has been suggested by many political pundits that the large lead
the President currently enjoys will have a broad coattail effect on
other Republican races this year. The more optimistic of these suggests
that the President will have a Republican Congress to work with during
his second term and will register significant gains in the State Houses.
A glance back in history, though, does not support that belief. The
last landslide year for the Republicans was in 1956 when President
Eisenhower won a second term by a 9-1/2 million vote majority. However,
we had no gain in the Senate and a net loss of two House seats and two
State Houses. A careful analysis of our prospects in 1972 indicates
that potential exists for a repeat of that election. We have an
opportunity, due to reapportionment and an unusual number of retirements,
to register a net gain in the area of 20 seats in the House. With luck
the organization of the Senate is within our grasp. However, with a
high number of incumbent Republican Governors seeking re-election, it
will be difficult to hold our present alignment.
The opportunity in the above stated areas is there, but it is foolish
to think that it will all happen by accident. The organizational nature
of the President's re-election campaign should be of significant help
to other candidates. The proposals that follow are designed to be of
further assistance in harvesting a bumper crop of new Republican office-
holders in 1972.
Attachments
The following are major areas where this campaign can be of assistance to
other Republican races. For purposes of organization and decision making,
I a.. breaking it into five major areas: Organizational, Financial, Presidential
Ass stance, Scheduling and Miscellaneous.
Organizational
1.
There are certain areas such as registration that should, while benefiting
the President, at the same time assist other races. This needs no
direction as the simple act of performing the task will accomplish the
same effect for all candidates. Other activities vary state by state,
depending upon the Party tradition, degree of organization and strength
of the local candidate. Recruiting volunteers, canvassing and get-out-
the-vote operations depend on the above factors. In a state like Ohio
where the central party structure is strong, there will be a natural
melding of those efforts. In other states where the candidate organiza-
tion is strong such as Kentucky with Governor Nunn, it is in both of our
interests to work together. There are other states, including many
southern and border states where neither the state party organization nor
the candidate organization are all that is desired. In these states a
degree of close cooperation should be dependent on several factors, including
whether or not working with state or local candidates could cost the Presi-
dent a substantial number of votes, whether or not there is a basic compa-
tibility between the President's position and that of the local candidate,
and whether or not a joint effort has any real chance of making a significant
difference.
On the above points I would recommend that in marginal races, where we
cannot hurt the President's efforts to carry that state, we direct our
field personnel to work closely with the other campaigns.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
B. In certain areas we are using paid telephone centers to assist in canvassing
and the get-out-the-vote effort. Using the same criterion as above, I
would recommend the joint use of these centers to assist other candidates.
For example, in Illinois we have several pick-up opportunities in Congressional
areas where paid telephone centers are operating.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
Financial
A. Perhaps the greatest single need of any candidate is adequate financial
help to fund his organizational efforts and to provide the media support
needed. My premise in this area would be the President's money must
be collected in adequate sums to ensure financial solvency of this
campaign first. After this is achieved, assistance to other candidates
should be considered.
I recommend that a budget item be included in the overall campaign budget
to directly assist other candidates.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
B. Because of the disclosure laws, certain large contributors, after making
their contribution to the Presidential campaign, may desire to contribute
additional amounts to help in the election of other Republican office
seekers. I would recommend that Maurice Stans' organization be provided
a list of those races that are considered to be marginal and where
additional financial assistance could make a difference. He in turn
could divert these contributors to other races.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
C. We have accumulated a substantial list of contributors who have come in
as a result of our direct mail efforts. I would recommend that at about
September 15, copies of these lists be made available to selected candidates
who are in marginal races.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
Presidential Assistance
A popular incumbent President with the vast resources of the federal government
at his command can be of great assistance to candidates. In 1970 we ran a
rather extensive program to help these office seekers. The basis of that program
has been shifted to assisting the President's race. Again, this must remain the
primary target. However, presuming the President maintains his lead, we
should consider extending it to target races.
A. There exists under Bill Gifford at OMB, a grantmanship program to assist
target areas for the Presidential campaign. I would recommend that this
be extended to include target Senatorial, Gubernatorial and Congressional races.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
B. There is in existence and is being used to some degree, a program which
solicits telegrams, letters and the like for campaigns. I would recommend
that we make this service known to our target candidates.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
C. Fully recognizing that the President's schedule is incredibly tight, if a
certain period of time could be set aside SO that candidates in key races
could come in for a picture taking session with the resultant publicity
back home, it would be of immeasurable assistance.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
D. The President will be making a limited number of campaign appearances,
therefore, key races should be a factor in determining which stops the
President should make.
I therefore recommend that Dwight Chapin be provided a list of the key
and target races for possible use in scheduling the President.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
E. After the President's schedule is set, opportunities will arise for
Congressional, Senatorial and Gubernatorial candidates to greet the President
at airports, ride in motorcades, sit on the podium, etc. I would recommend
that we work closely with the Presidential advance teams to include these
candidates on those appearances.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
Scheduling
The current target scheduling plan calls for a saturation of speakers in a
selected number of states that are important to the re-election of the President.
This same plan virtually excludes appearances by the Vice President, surrogates
and celebrities in all other areas. Unfortunately, a number of our key Senate
and Gubernatorial races are outside the range of the attack program. Therefore,
I would recommend that a limited number of dates be freed up on the schedules
of the Vice President, surrogates and celebrities SO that they may be able to
assist in these other campaigns.
Vice President Agree
Disagree
Comments
Surrogates
Agree
Disagree
Comments
Celebrities
Agree
Disagree
Comments
Miscellaneous
There are a number of other areas where our existing campaign organization
could be put to use to assist other candidates. They are as follows:
A. Advertising - The election reform law limits the amount of money that
can be spent on behalf of the Presidential candidate. In order to work
these limitations, certificates must be provided before placement for
print and the electronic media. If it appears that we are not going to
fully utilize our ceiling for media, I would suggest that we open up the
opportunity for joint ads with candidates in target areas. I would
recommend that I be directed to work up a contingency plan with the
November Group for use in the above described manner.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
B. An effective way of taking advantage of Presidential popularity in the
electronic media would be a tag line by the President which could be
added at the end of a candidate's commercial. I would recommend that
the November Group attempt to develop a universal tag line, the text of
which could be sent to candidates in target areas.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
C. A considerable amount of our resources has gone into polling and obtaining
basic demographic data. The results of the polling, specifically on issues,
could be very helpful to candidates in selected areas. I would therefore
recommend that this polling information be made available.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
D. Likewise, certain demographic information has been put together which could
be of use to other candidates. I would similarly recommend that this be
provided to our target list.
Agree
Disagree
Comments
I am including in this report a current list of the target races. They are:
Tab A Senatorial Races Tab B Congressional Races Tab C Gubernatorial
Races Tab D A breakout of State legislative seats that are up in 1972.
SENATE RACES
Incumbents
STATE
SAFE
PROBABLE
MARGINAL
LONG SHOT
ALABAMA
Blount/Sparkman
ALASKA
Stevens/Guess
ARKANSAS
Babbit/McClellan
COLORADO
Allott/primary 9/12
DELAWARE
Boggs/Biden
GEORGIA
Thompson/Nunn
IDAHO
McClure/Davis
ILLINOIS
Percy/Pucinski
IOWA
Miller/Clark
KANSAS
Pearson/Tetzlaff
KENTUCKY
Nunn/Huddleston
LOUISIANA
Toledano/Bennett/McKeithan
MAINE
Smith/Hathaway
MASSACHUSETTS
Brooke/primary 9/19
MICHIGAN
Griffin/Kelley
MINNESOTA
Hansen/Mondale
MISSISSIPPI
€armichael/Eastland
MONTANA
Hibbard/Metcalf
NEBRASKA
Curtis/Carpenter
NEW HAMPSHIRE
primary 9/12
NEW JERSEY
Case/Krebs
NEW MEXICO
Domenici/Daniels
NORTH CAROLINA
Helms/Galifianakis
OKLAHOMA
Bartlett/Edmondson
OREGON
Hatfield/Morse
RHODE ISLAND
Chaffee/Pell
SOUTH CAROLINA
Thurmond/Ziegler
SOUTH DAKOTA
Hirsch/Abourezk
TENNESSEE
Baker/Blanton
TEXAS
Tower/Sanders
INIA
Scott/Spong
FILSI VIRGINIA
WYOMING
Hansen/Vinich
Incumbent
GUBERNATORIAL RACES
STATE
SAFE
PROBABLE
MARGINAL
LONG SHOT
ARKANSAS
Blaylock/Bumpers
DELAWARE
Peterson/Tribitt
ILLINOIS
Ogilvie/Walker
INDIANA
Bowen/Welsh
IOWA
Ray/Franzenburg
KANSAS
Kay/Docking
MISSOURI
Bond/Dowd
MONTANA
Smith/Judge
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Peterson/primary 9/12
NORTH CAROLINA
Holshouser/Bowles
NORTH DAKOTA
Larsen/primary 9/5
RHODE ISLAND
DeSimone/primary 9/12
SOUTH DAKOTA
Thompson/Kneip
TEXAS
Grover/Briscoe
UTAH
Strike/Rampton
VERMONT
primary 9/12
WASHINGTON
Evens/primary 9/19
WEST VIRGINIA
Dure/Rockefeller
KEY HOUSE RACES
CODE:
ND - NEW DISTRICT
RO - REPUBLICAN OPEN
AS/OF 8-16-72
DO - DEMOCRAT OPEN
PAIR - TWO INCUMBENTS
* - INCUMBENT
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ALABAMA
2
* Dickinson
Reeves
ALASKA
AL
Young (subj. to
* Begich
Primary)
ND
ARIZONA
4
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
CALIFORNIA
6
* Mailliard
Boas
CALIFORNIA
7
Hannaford
* Dellums
ND
CALIFORNIA
11
Chase
Ryan
CALIFORNIA
18
* Mathias
Lavery
RO
CALIFORNIA
20
Moorhead
Binkley
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CALIFORNIA
31
Valentine
*
C. Wilson
CALIFORNIA
34
Ratterree
* Hanna
CALIFORNIA
35
Brown
* Anderson
ND
CALIFORNIA
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
ND
CALIFORNIA
38
Snider
Brown
RO
CALIFORNIA
39
Hinshaw
Black
ND
CALIFORNIA
42
Burgener
Lowe
COLORADO
1
* McKevitt
Primary 9/12
COLORADO
4
Primary 9/12
* Aspinall
ND
COLORADO
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
CODE
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CONNECTICUT
1
Rittenband
* Cotter
CONNECTICUT
2
*
Steele
Hilsman
CONNECTICUT
5
Sarasin
* Monagan
ND
FLORIDA
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
FLORIDA
8
Thompson
*
Haley
ND
FLORIDA
10
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
ND
FLORIDA
13
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
RO
GEORGIA
5
Cook
Young
RO
IDAHO
1
Symms
Williams
ND
ILLINOIS
3
Hanrahan
Coman
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ND
ILLINOIS
10
Young
* Mikva
ILLINOIS
11
Hoellen
* Annunzio
ND
ILLINOIS
17
0' Brien
Houlihan
RO
ILLINOIS
21
Madigan
Johnson
ILLINOIS
22
Lamkin
* Shipley
INDIANA
2
* Landgrebe
Fithian
INDIANA
3
Newman
* Brademas
INDIANA
4
Bloom
* Roush
INDIANA
8
* Zion
Deen
INDIANA
10
* Dennis
Sharp
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
INDIANA
11
Hudnutt
* Jacobs
IOWA
1
* Schwengel
Mezvinsky
IOWA
2
Ellsworth
* Culver
PAIR
IOWA
4
* Kyl
* Smith
KANSAS
2
McAtee
* Roy
KANSAS
3
* Winn
Barsotti
KENTUCKY
3
Kaelin
* Mazzoli
DO
KENTUCKY
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
LOUISIANA
3
Treen
Primary 8/19
MAINE
1
Porteous
* Kyros
CODE
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
DO
MAINE
2
Cohen
Violette
MARYLAND
1
* Mills
Hargreaves
ND
MARYLAND
4
Holt
Fornos
MARYLAND
6
Mason
* Byron
MASSACHUSETTS
4
Primary 9/19
Drinan
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
5
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
MASSACHUSETTS
6
Moseley
* Harrington
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
12
Weeks
Studds
MICHIGAN
2
* Esch
Stempien
MICHIGAN
12
Serotkin
* 0' Hara
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ND
MICHIGAN
18
* Broomfield
Montgomery
MINNESOTA
6
* Zwach
Nolan
MINNESOTA
7
Haaven
* Bergland
DO
MISSISSIPPI
2
Butler
Bowen
DO
MISSISSIPPI
4
Cochran
Bodron
DO
MISSISSIPPI
5
Lott
Stone
DO
MISSOURI
6
Sloan
Litton
RO
MISSOURI
7
Taylor
Thomas
MONTANA
1
* Shoup
Olsen
NEW JERSEY
3
Dowd
* Howard
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW JERSEY
6
*
Forsythe
Brennan
NEW JERSEY
9
Schiaffo
* Helstoski
RO
NEW JERSEY
12
Rinaldo
English
ND
NEW JERSEY
13°
Maraziti
Meyner
NEW MEXICO
2
Presson
Runnels
NEW YORK
7
Boyd
* Pike
ND
NEW YORK
3
Roncallo
Bales
NEW YORK
6
Gallagher
*
Wolff
NEW YORK
23
* Peyser
Ottinger
NEW YORK
24
Vergari
* Reid
CODE
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW YORK
26
Gilman
* Dow
RO
NEW YORK
31
Mitchell
Castle
NEW YORK
32
Koldin
* Hanley
RO
NEW YORK
33
Walsh
Kadys
NEW YORK
36
* Smith
McCarthy
DO
NORTH CAROLINA
4
Hawke
Andrews
RO
NORTH CAROLINA
9
Martin
Beatty
RO
OHIO
4
Guyer
Nicholas
OHIO
8
* Powell
Ruppert
RO
OHIO
16
Regula
Musser
CODE
STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
OHIO
19
Parr
* Carney
RO
OKLAHOMA
1
Primary 8/22
Primary 8/22
DO
OKLAHOMA
2
Toliver
Primary 8/22
PENNSYLVANIA
5
* Ware
Franco
RO
PENNSYLVANIA
9
Shuster
Collins
PENNSYLVANIA
14
Catarinella
* Moorehead
SOUTH CAROLINA
1
Limehouse
* Davis
SOUTH DAKOTA
1
Vickerman
* Denholm
DO
SOUTH DAKOTA
2
Abdnor
McKeever
TENNESSEE
3
* Baker
Sompayrac
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
TENNESSEE
6
Beard
* Anderson
TENNESSEE
8
* Kuykendall
Patterson
TEXAS
5
Steelman
* Cabell
PAIR
TEXAS
13
* Price
* Purcell
UTAH
1
Primary 9/12
McKay
UTAH
2
Lloyd
Primary 9/12
VIRGINIA
4
Daniel
Gibson
RO
VIRGINIA
6
Butler
Anderson
RO
VIRGINIA
8
Parris
Horan
RO
WASHINGTON
1
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
WASHINGTON
4
Primary 9/19
* McCormack
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
WISCONSIN
1
Primary 9/12
* Aspin
WISCONSIN
3
* Thomson
Primary 9/12
PAIR WISCONSIN
7
* 0' Konski
* Obey
WISCONSIN
8
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
WYOMING
AL
Primary 8/22
* Roncalio
1972 STATE LEGISLATIVE SEATS
STATE
SENATE
HOUSE
Total No.
Total No.
Seats Up
GOP
DEM
Comments
Seats Up
GOP
DEM
Comments
ALABAMA
None-elected to 4 year terms in 1970
ALASKA (1/2 Senate)
10
5
5
40
ARIZONA
30
18
12
60
34
26
ARKANSAS
35
1
34
100
2
98
CALIFORNIA (1/2 Senate)
20
11
9
80
37
43
COLORADO (1/2 Senate)
18
11
5
2 new lean
65
38
37
GOP
CONNECTICUT
Reapportionment as yet undecided--Court hearing set for Aug. 5
DELAWARE
21
13
6
Gained 2
41
23
16
Gained 2
FLORIDA
40
15
33
Lost 8
120
38
81
Gained 1
GEORGIA
56
6
50
180
22
173
Lost 15
HAWAII
Senate elected in 1970 to 4
51
17
34
year terms
IDAHO
35
19
16
70
41
29
ILLINOIS
59
29
29
Gained 1
177
90
87
INDIANA (1/2 Senate)
26
15
5
6 new due
100
53
46
One vacancy
to reappt.
IOWA
50
38
12
100
63
3/
KANSAS
40
32
8
125
84
41
KENTUCKY
None-elected to four year terms in 1970
LOUISIANA
None-elected to four year terms February 1, 1972
MAINE
33
18
14
Gained 1
151
79
71
One vacancy
MARYLAND
None-elected to 4 yr. terms in 1970
MASSACHUSETTS
40
10
30
240
62
178
MICHIGAN
None-elected to 4 year terms
110
52
57
One vacancy
in 1970
MINNESOTA
67
Non-Parti-
134
Non-Partisan
san
Lost one
MISSISSIPPI
None-elected to four year terms in 1971
MISSOURI (1/2 Senate)
17
3
14
163
51
112
1972 STATE LEGISLATIVE SEATS
STATE
SENATE
HOUSE
Total No.
Total No.
Seats Up
GOP
DEM
COMMENTS
Seats Up
GOP
DEM
COMMENTS
MONTANA (2/3 Senate)
35
13
17
lost 5
100
55
49
lost 4
EBRASKA (1/2 Leg.)
24 seats unicameral Legislature-- non partisan election
NEVADA
18
5
13
2 GOP
40
22
18
Seats are
holdovers
NEW HAMPSHIRE
24
15
9
400
248
144
8 vacancies
NEW JERSEY
None-elected in 1971 to 2-year terms
NEW MEXICO
34
10
15
9 vacant
70
18
38
14 vacant due
due to
to reapport.
reapport.
NEW YORK
60
32
25
Gained 3
150
79
71
NORTH CAROLINA
50
7
43
120
24
96
NORTH DAKOTA (1/2 Senate)
25
21
2
2 new
102
58
40
Gained 4
lean GOP
OHIO (1/2 Senate)
16
7
4
99
54
45
OKLAHOMA
27
9
18
101
78
21
Gained 2
OREGON
15
7
8
60
34
26
PENNSYLVANIA (1/2 Senate)
25
12
13
203
90
113
RHODE ISLAND
50
9
41
100
24
75
1 Independent
SOUTH CAROLINA
46
2
44
124
11
113
SOUTH DAKOTA
35
24
11
70
46
29
Lost 5
TENNESSEE (1/2 Senate)
16.
6
10
99
43
56
TEXAS
31
2
29
150
10
140
UTAH
29
16
12
Gained 1
75
31
38
Gained 6
VERMONT
30
22
8
150
94
48
R & D-eight
VIRGINIA
None-elected in 1971-Senate 4yr. terms, House 2yr. terms
WASHINGTON
26
6
14
6 vacant
98
57
48
Lost I
due to
.
reapport.
WEST VIRGINIA
17
4
13
100
32
68
WISCONSIN (1/2 Senate)
17
13
4
99
33
66
WYOMING (1/2 Senate)
18
11
7
62
40
20
Gained 1;
1 Independent
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
D=D
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Congressional Races
The GOP Congressional campaign committee expects a pickup
of 12 to 25 House seats in 1972, with an outside chance
that a Presidential sweep and several southern switch
overs could provide the magic number of 40 needed to
organize the House. Predicting is tough, however,
considering past results, as in 1956 when we lost 2 in
the Eisenhower victory and LBJ's gain of 37 in 1964.
In 1970 we lost 9, in 1968 we gained 2 and in 1966 we
jumped 47.
Reapportionment will help us pick up several seats, and
we should score on some weak Democrats, especially where
we lost in 1970.
The present lineup is 178 GOP (plus the Brad Morse vacancy)
and 255 Democrats (plus the GOV. Edwards' Louisiana vacancy).
It takes 218 to organize.
One reason we have a problem winning 218 is because we will
be letting 30 to 35 seats go uncontested; whereas, the
Democrats will have 3 to 5 uncontested (Harsha and Brown of
Ohio and Spence of South Carolina for certain).
Page Two
1972 Congressional Races
Attachment A shows my evaluation of the 435 House races
for 1972. This is based on checks with our leaders in
the states and the campaign committee. It works out as
follows:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
137
41
29
61
167
We may want to consider channeling some fund help to
some key congressional races. These can better be
evaluated within the next two months.
ATTACHMENT A
1972 U. S. Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Alabama
2
1
1
3
1. J. Edwards-R
X
2. Dickinson-R
X
3. Nichols-D
X
4. Bevill-D
X
5. R. Jones-D
X
6. Buchanan-R
X
7. Flowers-D
X
Alaska
1
1. Begich
X
Arizona
2
1
1
1. Rhodes-R
X
2. Udall-D
X
3. Steiger-R
X
4. Primary-Sept.
X
12
Arkansas
1
3
1. Alexander-D
X
2. Hills-D
X
3.
Hammerschmidt-R
X
4.
Primary-Aug. 29
X
Page TWO
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
California
14
4
1
15
9
1.
Clausen-R
X
2.
Johnson-D
X
3. Moss-D
X
4. Leggett-D
X
5. Burton-D
X
6.
Mailliard-R
X
7.
Dellums-D
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9. Edwards-D
X
10. Gubser-R
X
11.
No incumbent
X
12.
Talcott-R
X
13. Teague-R
X
14.
Waldie-D
X
15.
McFall-D/R
X
16. Sisk-D
X
17.
McCloskey-R
X
18.
Mathias-R
X
19.
Holifield-D
X
20.
No incumbent
X
21.
Hawkins-D
X
22.
Corman-D
X
23.
Clawson-R
X
24.
Rousselot-R
X
25.
Wiggins-R
X
26.
Rees-D
X
27.
Goldwater-R
X
28. Bell-R
X
29.
Danielson-D
X
30.
Royball-D
X
31.
Wilson-D
X
32.
Hosmer-R
X
33.
Pettis-R
X
34.
Hanna-D
X
35.
G. Anderson-D
X
Page Three
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
-
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
California (con't)
36.
No incumbent
X
37. No incumbent
X
38.
No incumbent
X
39.
No incumbent
X
40.
B. Wilson-R
X
41.
Van Deerlin-D
X
42.
No incumbent
X
43. Veysey-R
X
Colorado
1
2
1
1
1. McKevitt-R
X
2.
Brotzman-R
X
3. Evans-D
X
4. Aspinall-D
X
5. No incumbent
X
Connecticut
2
1
3
1. Cotter-D
X
2.
Steele-R
X
3. Giamo-D
X
4.
McKinney-R
X
5. Monagan-D
X
6. Grasso-D
X
Delaware
1
1. duPont-R
X
Page Four
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Florida
5
7
3
1. Sikes-D
X
2. Fuqua-D
X
3.
Bennett-D
X
4. Chapell-D
X
5.
No incumbent
X
6. Young-R
X
7. Gibbons-D
X
8. Haley-D
X
9. Frey-R
X
10.
No incumbent
X
11. Rogers-D
X
12.
Burke-R
X
13. Pepper-D
X
14.
Fascell-D
X
15.
No incumbent
X
Georgia
1
2
7
1. Hagan-D
X
2.
Mathis-D
X
3. Brinkley-D
X
4. Blackburn-R
X
5.
No incumbent
X
6. Flynt-D
X
7. Davis-D
X
8. Stuckey-D
X
9.
Landrum-D
X
10.
Stephens-D
X
Page Five
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Hawaii
1
1
1.
Matsunaga-D
X
2. Mink-D
X
Idaho
2
1.
No incumbent
X
2.
Hansen-R
X
Illinois
11
1
3
9
1.
Metcalfe-D
X
2. Murphy-D
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4.
Derwinski-R
X
5.
Kluezynski-D
X
6.
Collier-R
X
7. Collins-D
X
8.
Rostenkowski-D
X
9. Yates-D
X
10. Mikva-D
X
11.
Annunzio-D
X
12.
Crane-R
X
13.
McClory-R
X
14.
Erlinborn-R
X
15.
Arends-R
X
16.
Anderson-R
X
17.
No incumbent
X
18. Michel-R
X
19.
Railsback-R
X
20.
Findley-R
X
21.
No incumbent
X
22.
Shipley-D
X
23.
Price-D
X
24.
Gray-D
X
Page Six
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Indiana
5
2
1
3
1. Madden-D
X
2.
Landgrebe-R
X
3. Brademas-D
X
4.
Roush-D
X
5. Hillis-R
X
6. Bray-R
X
7. Meyers-R
X
8. Zion-R
X
9.
Hamilton-D
X
10. Dennis-R
X
11. Jacobs-D
X
Iowa
2
2
1
1
1.
Schwengel-R
X
2.
Culver-D
X
3. Gross-R
X
4. Kyl-R
X
5.
Scherle-R
X
6. Mayne-R
X
Kansas
3
1
1
1. Sebelius-R
X
2. Roy-D
X
3. Winn-R
X
4. Shriver-R
X
5. Skubitz-R
X
Page Seven
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Kentucky
2
3
2
1.
Stubblefield-D
X
2.
Natcher-D
X
3.
Mazzoli-D
X
4. Snyder-R
X
5.
Carter-R
X
6. No incumbent
X
7.
Perkins-D
X
Louisiana
1
6
1
1. Herbert-D
X
2. Boggs-D
X
3.
No incumbent
(Treen)
X
4. Waggonner-D
X
5. Passman-D
X
6.
Rarick-D
X
7.
No incumbent
X
8.
No incumbent
X
Maine
1
1
1. Kyros-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
Maryland
3
2.
3
1. Mills-R
X
2. Long-D
X
3. Sarbanes-D
X
4.
No incumbent
X
Page Eight
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Maryland (con't)
5. Hogan-R
X
6. Byron-D
X
7. Mitchell-D
X
8. Gude-R
X
Massachusetts
2
1
2
5
2
1. Conte-R
X
2. Boland-D
X
3.
Drinan-D
X
4. Donohue-D
X
5. Morse-R
X
6. Harrington-D
X
7. MacDonald-D
X
8.
O'Neil-D
X
9. Hicks-D
X
10.
Heckler-R
X
11.
Burke-D
X
12. Keith-R
X
Michigan
11
5
3
1. Conyers-D
X
2. Esch-R
X
3. Brown-R
X
4.
Hutchinson-R
X
5.
G. Ford-R
X
6.
Chamberlain-R
X
7. Riegle-R
X
8.
Harvey-R
X
9.
VanderJagt-R
X
10.
Cederberg-R
X
11.
Ruppe-R
X
Page Nine
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Michigan (con't)
12. O'Hara-D
X
13. Diggs-D
X
14. Nedzi-D
X
15.
W. Ford-D
X
16. Dingell-D
X
17.
Griffiths-D
X
18. No incumbent
X
19. Broomfield-R
or
McDonald-R
X
Minnesota
2
3
3
1. Quie-R
X
2. Nelsen-R
X
3.
Frenzel-R
X
4. Karth-D
X
5. Fraser-D
X
6. Zwach-R
X
7.
Bergland
X
8. Blatnik-D
X
Mississippi
2
2
1
1. Abernethy-D
X
2. No incumbent
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4. Montgomery-D
X
5.
No incumbent
X
Page Ten
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Missouri
1
3
6
1. Clay-D
X
2.
Symington-D
X
3.
Sullivan-D
X
4. Randall-D
X
5. Bolling-D
X
6. No incumbent
X
7.
No incumbent
X
8.
Ichord-D
X
9. Hungate-D
X
10.
Burlison-D
X
Montana
1
1
1. Shoup-R
X
2. Melcher-D
X
Nebraska
2
1
1. Thone-R
X
2.
McCollister-R
X
3. Martin-R
X
Nevada
1
1. Baring-D
X
New Hampshire
2
1. Wyman-R
X
2.
Cleveland-R
X
Page Eleven
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
New Jersey
4
2
1
6
2
1. Hunt-R
X
2.
Sandman-R
X
3.
Howard-D
X
4. Thompson-D
X
5.
Frelinghuysen-R
X
6.
Forsythe-R
X
7.
Widnall-R
X
8. Roe-D
X
9. Helstoski-D
X
10. Rodino-D
X
11. Minish-D
X
12.
No incumbent
X
13.
No incumbent
X
14.
Daniels-D
X
15. Patten-D
X
New Mexico
1
1
1. Lujan-R
X
2.
Runnels-D
X
New York
11
3
8
14
3
1. Pike-D
X
2.
Grover-R
X
3.
No incumbent
X
4. Kent-R
X
5. Wydler-R
X
6.
Wolff-D-L
X
7. Addabbo-D-L
X
8.
Rosenthal-D-L
X
9.
Delaney-D-R-C
X
10.
Biaggi-D-C
X
11.
Brasco-D
X
12.
Chisholm-D-L
X
Page Twelve
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
New York (con't)
13.
No incumbent
X
14.
No incumbent
X
15.
Carey-D
X
16.
Celler-L
X
17. Murphy-D
X
18.
Koch-D
X
19.
Rangel-D-R-L
X
20.
Ryan-D-L
X
21.
Badillo-D-L
X
22.
Bingham-D-L
X
23.
Peyser-R-C
X
24.
Reid-D-L
X
25.
Fish-R-C
X
26. Dow-D
X
27.
Robison-R
X
28.
Stratton-D
X
29. King-R-C
X
30.
McEwen-R-C
X
31.
No incumbent
X
32.
Hanley-D
X
33.
No incumbent
X
34.
Horton-R
X
35.
Conable-R
X
36.
Smith-R-C
X
37.
Dulski-D-L
X
38.
Kemp-R-C
X
39. Hastings-R-C
X
North Carolina
3
2
6
1.
Jones-D
X
2.
Fountain-D
X
3. Henderson-D
X
4.
No incumbent
X
Page Thirteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
North Carolina
5. Mizell-R
X
6.
Preyer-D
X
7.
No incumbent
X
8. Ruth-R
X
9.
No incumbent
X
10.
Broyhill-R
X
11. Taylor-D
X
North Dakota
1
1. Andrews-R
X
Ohio
14
2
6
1
1.
Keating-R
X
2.
Clancy-R
X
3.
Whalen-R
X
4.
No incumbent
X
5. Latta-R
X
6.
Harsha-R
X
7. Brown-R
X
8.
Powell-R
X
9.
Ashley-D
X
10. Miller-R
X
11.
V. Stanton-R
X
12. Devine-R
X
13. Mosher-R
X
14.
Seiberling-D
X
15. Wylie-R
X
16.
No incumbent
X
17. Ashbrook-R
X
Page Fourteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Ohio (con't)
18. Hays-D
X
19. Carney-D
X
20.
J. W. Stanton-D
X
21. Stokes-D
X
22. Vanik-D
X
23. Minshall-R
X
Oklahoma
1
1
3
1
1.
No incumbent
X
2.
No incumbent
X
3. Albert-D
X
4. Steed-D
X
5.
Jarman-D
X
6. Camp-R
X
Oregon
1
1
2
1. Wyatt-R
X
2.
Ullman-D
X
3. Green-D
X
4.
Dellenback-R
X
Pennsylvania
11
1
12
1
1. Barrett-D
X
2. Nix-D
X
3.
Green-D
X
4. Eilberg-D
X
5. Ware-R
X
6. Yatron-D
X
Page Fifteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Pennsylvania (con't)
7. Williams-R
X
8.
Biester-R
X
9.
No incumbent
X
10. McDade-R
X
11.
Flood-D
X
12. Saylor-R
X
13.
Coughlin-R
X
14.
Moorhead-D
X
15.
Rooney-D
X
16.
Eshleman-R
X
17.
Schneebeli-R
X
18.
Heinz-R
X
19.
Goodling-R
X
20.
Gaydos-D
X
21.
Dent-D
X
22.
Morgan-D
X
23.
Johnson-R
X
24.
Vigorito-D
X
25. Clark-D
X
Rhode Island
2
1.
Stigermain-D
X
2.
Tiernan-D
X
South Carolina
1
1
4
1.
Davis-D
X
2.
Spence-R
X
3. Dorn-D
X
4.
Mann-D
X
5.
Gettys-D
X
6.
McMillan-D
X
Page Sixteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
South Dakota
1
1
1. Denholm-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
Tennessee
2
2
1
2
1
1. Quillen-R
X
2.
Duncan-R
X
3.
Baker-R
X
4.
Evins-D
X
5.
Fulton-D
X
6. Anderson-D
X
7.
Jones-D
X
8.
Kuykendall-R
X
Texas
2
1
18
3
1.
Patman-D
X
2.
No incumbent
X
3.
Collins-R
X
4. Roberts-D
X
5.
Cabell-D
X
6.
Teague-D
X
7. Archer-R
X
8.
Eckhardt-D
X
9.
Brooks-D
X
10. Pickle-D
X
11. Pcrage-D
X
12. Wright-D
X
13. Purcell-D
X
14.
Young-D
X
15.
de La Garza-D
X
16. White-D
X
Page Seventeen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Texas (con't)
17. Burleson-D
X
18.
No incumbent
X
19. Mahon-D
X
20. Gonzales-D
X
21. Fisher-D
X
22. Casey--D
X
23. Kazen-D
X
24.
No incumbent
X
Utah
1
1
1. McKay-D
X
2. Lloyd-R
X
Vermont
1
1. Mallary-R
X
Virginia
5
1
1
2
1
1. Downing-D
X
2. Whitehurst-R
X
3. Satterfield-D
X
4.
No incumbent
X
5. Daniel-D
X
6.
No incumbent
X
7. Robinson-R
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9. Wampler-R
X
10. Broyhill-R
X
Page Eighteen
Attachment A
1972 Congressional Races
Republican
Democrat
Should
Should
State
Win
Favored
Close
Win
Favored
Washington
1
1
2
3
1. No incumbent
X
2. Meeds-D
X
3. Hansen-D
X
4. McCormack-D
X
5. Foley-D
X
6. Hicks-D
X
7. Adams-D
X
West Virginia
4
1. Mollohan-D
X
2. Staggers-D
X
3. Slack-D
X
4. Hechler-D
X
Wisconsin
2
2
I
3
1
1. Aspin-D
X
2.
Kastenmeier-D
X
3. Thomson-R
X
4.
Zablocki-D
X
5.
Reuss-D
X
6.
Steiger-R
X
7.
O'Konski-R
X
8.
No incumbent
X
9. Davis-R
X
Wyoming
1
1. Roncalio-D
X
Totals
137
41
29
167
61
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 30, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
USD
SUBJECT:
Maximizing the Coattails
The latest Gallup Poll underscores the importance of
making the most of the President's coattails to win more
seats in Congress and the State Houses. This will be
good for the President for these reasons:
1) We need more help on Capitol Hill and in the State
Houses; 2) depending on coattails alone may not prove
successful, as past history shows; 3) GOP leaders and
newsmen are now questioning whether we're just doing our
own thing; 4) aiding the key candidates and scoring
previously unexpected gains will boost the President's
stock with the party and increase his grip on their 1976
actions (polls show the GOP and Demo parties have been
going downhill, like under Ike, who is remembered by the
GOP as not caring and helping).
Here are suggestions for maximizing our coattail possi-
bilities:
1) Let's execute the John Rollins proposal for raising
and disbursing candidate assistance funds. If not this,
then let's get set up a special outside group to do this
without our direct involvement. Some of these candidates
are hurting for funds, in part because we're tying up
money with our use of surrogates (the best speakers) only
for our fund raisers, etc. Also, Meany & Co. are
zeroing in on Capitol Hill races and will thus blunt
some of our coattail effects with money and manpower
diverted from McGovern's effort.
- 2 -
(2) Schedule right away another picture session with all
challengers. This means expanding the list I sent you
this week by about double. I sent only the vital ones.
The guys making the most noise are the less vital
challengers who just might make it in a landslide with
RN identification, like the governor candidate in Indiana.
They want some TV film shots as well.
(3) Work in the key candidates in regional or state
appearances by the President, especially where we are a
cinch to win, like N. C. These candidates want the RN
blessing like never before.
(4) Radio tapes done quickly for key races, like
Bartlett of Oklahoma, will be most helpful and can be
used with the picture for TV as well as radio. We have
strong requests for this.
(5) Visits to key candidate headquarters by top RN
spokesmen can be used as a substitute for RN in some
cases to leave the impression RN cares and we are helping.
This is needed particularly if the President isn't going
to be seen with these candidates much at all in the
campaign.
Most of what I am suggesting can be done with minimal
Presidential involvement and time and without harming
our overall thrust for a new majority of all Americans.
In fact, in pushing for the new majority we need to do
something minimal like this to satisfy the candidate
appetites and GOP leader morale.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
The President
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
VASD
SUBJECT:
1972 Governor Races
The Democrats should continue to keep the lead in
Governorships (29-21 now, excluding ours in Puerto Rico,
Samoa, and the Virgin Islands), but we have the potential
for closing the gap by one or two seats. Of the 18 Governor-
ships up this year, we should win three, are favored in two,
and are close in five. The Democrats should win four and are
favored in four.
The tough fights will be in Illinois (R), New Hampshire (R),
West Virginia (R), Missouri (D), and North Dakota (D). We
are favored to pick up Rhode Island (D), and are expected to
lose our seat in Indiana (R).
States where money would have the best impact are the five
close states listed above, with N. C. (D) and S. D. (D) worth
watching, depending on the Presidential race.
These judgments are based on conservative evaluation from our
side, and not predicated on a Presidential sweep.
Here are the evaluations:
Republican
Democrat
Win
Favored
Close
Favored
Win
Del. (R)
Vt. (R)
Ill. (R)
Ind. (R)
Ark. (D)
Iowa (R)
R.I. (D)
N.H. (R)
Mont. (D)
Kan. (D)
Wash. (R)
W.Va. (R)
N.C. (D)
Texas (D)
Mo.
(D)
S.D. (D)
Utah (D)
N.D. (D)
3
2
5
4
4
Page Two
The President
July 10, 1972
Gov. Luis Ferre should keep his GOP seat in Puerto Rico.
Attachment "A" has more information on each race.
Attachment
ATTACHMENT A
1972 GOVERNOR RACES
1. Arkansas: Gov. Dale Bumpers (D) should win. The
hope is to keep him under 60%. The Republican is Len
Blaylock.
2. Delaware: Gov. Russell W. Peterson (R) is the endorsed
candidate, but could be forced into divisive primary at
July 17 convention with Buckson. The strongest and most
likely Democrat is State Treasurer Mrs. Emily Womack.
Other Democrats are Earl McGinness, Sherman Tribbett, Ed
Sandstrom, and William Quillen. Republican should win.
3. Illinois: Gov. Richard B. Ogilvie (R) won the primary
easily. His chances continue to improve. The Democrat
is Daniel Walker, who was the surprise primary winner
over a Daley candidate. Walker led Ogilvie by two-to-
one right after the primary, but this was probably anti-
Daley sentiment. Walker's victory probably helps Ogilvie.
Very close race here.
4. Indiana: Otis (Doc) Bowen is the Republican nominee. GOP
Gov. Ed Whitcomb is barred from re-election. The Democrat
is ex-Governor Matthew Welsh. Democrat favored.
5. Iowa: Gov. Robert D. Ray (R) should win. Lt. Gov.
Jepson has dropped out of the primary, leaving the field
to Ray. Democrats are John Tapscott, James Lynch, and
Paul Franzenburg, who will probably get the nomination.
6. Kansas: Gov. Robert Docking (D) is very popular throughout
the state and is favored. Republicans are Morris Kay,
Reynolds Shultz, John Anderson, and Ray Frisbie. Anderson
is leading, but Frisbie is President of the Kansas Farm
Bureau, which gives him a strong constituency.
7. Missouri: Gov. Warren E. Hearnes (D) is barred from
re-election. Democrats are Edward Dowd, William Morris,
Earl Blackwell, and Joseph Teasdale. Morris and Teasdale
are the leading contenders. Republicans are R. J. King,
Steve Burns, Harvey Engie, Gene McNary, and Kit Bond,
who should get the nomination. Close, with GOP chance.
Page Two
Attachment A - 1972 Governor Races
July 10, 1972
8. Montana: Gov. Forrest Anderson (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Lt. Gov. Thomas L. Judge.
Republican is Ed Smith. Democrat is favored.
9. New Hampshire: Gov. Walter Peterson, Jr. (R) will have
close race. GOP primary opposition is from Bob Hill
and Meldrin Thompson. Peterson should win the primary.
Hill's campaign is unimpressive and Thompson was the
1970 AIP candidate. If Peterson loses, the top three
offices could go Democrat, especially if Cotton's seat
should become vacant. The Democrat is Roger Crowley,
who lost to Peterson in 1970. Close race since Peterson
hurt on tax proposal. (Hill looking at Gov. and Senate
races).
10. North Carolina: Gov. Robert W. Scott (D) is barred from
re-election. The Democrat is Skipper Bowles, a fresh
face who beat the establishment. Republican is Jim
Holshouser, who has a chance, but must reunite the GOP
after a divisive primary. It would take an RN sweep to
win. Democrat favored.
11. North Dakota: Gov. William Guy (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Congressman Arthur Link.
The endorsed Republican is Lt. Gov. Richard Larsen.
Robert McCarney, a maverick Republican, is expected
to insist on a primary. This could keep the GOP
from uniting until September. Race will be close.
12. Rhode Island: Gov. Frank Licht (D) is not seeking
re-election. Democrat is Phillip Noel. Republican is
Herbert DeSimone, (DOT Assistant Secretary). Late
April newspaper poll shows DeSimone two-to-one over
Noel. Republican favored.
13. South Dakota: Gov. Richard Kneip (D) is hurt by his
income tax proposal, which was defeated by the Legislature.
Republican is Carve Thompson, a druggist with four years'
experience in the State House of Representatives. Democrat
favored.
14. Texas: Gov. Preston Smith (D) was defeated. Democrat
is Dolphe Briscoe. Republican is right-wing State Sen.
Henry Grover. Democrat should win.
Page Three
Attachment A - 1972 Governor Races
July 10, 1972
15. Utah: Calvin L. Rampton (D) is seeking an unprecedented
third term. Republican is Nicholas Strike. Democrat
favored.
16. Vermont: Gov. Deane C. Davis (R) is not seeking
re-election. Republicans are Jim Jeffords, Richard
Snelling, John Burgess, and Luther Hackett, who will
probably get the nomination. Democrats are John Downs
and Leo O'Brien. Close, but Republican favored.
17. Washington: Gov. Daniel J. Evans (R) will face either
Albert Rosellini, who is leading, or Martin Durkan.
Evans defeated Rosellini in 1964. Republican should
win.
18. West Virginia: Gov. Arch A. Moore, Jr. (R) has compiled
an excellent record. The Democrat is Jay Rockefeller
with a big primary win and plenty of money. Close.
9/3
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races
Dent has prepared a factual analysis of the Congressional
races, indicating that the Republicans must hold all
current incumbent seats and win 39 new seats to reach
the 218 needed to organize the House. Ford's Southern
Democrats switchover project will not become important
unless the Republicans are close to 218. Dent's Tab A
picks the top 30 requiring attention.
Timmons independently reviewed the September 5 Congres-
sional Campaign Committee analysis. Timmons' picks are
double underscored while Dent's are single underscored.
Where Dent and Timmons agree three underlines appear.
Malek's field organization can provide assessments of 50
important individual races by September 13. Malek's input
would be conjecture before then.
MacGregor's views will be checked September 7.
Teeter talked with an AMPAC representative on September 5
regarding access to their polls. Teeter received a commit-
ment to obtain the 25 completed polls on September 8.
This analysis of the Congressional races will be resubmitted
when the additional information is acquired.
The only people involved in this project are Bill Timmons,
Clark MacGregor, Fred Malek, Bob Teeter and Stan Anderson.
Harry Flemming has done an independent analysis for Clark
MacGregor but has not reviewed it with Mitchell or MacGregor.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
AD
SUBJECT:
1972 U. S. Congressional
Races
The GOP Congressional election picture is brighter today
than on July 10 when I submitted the last memorandum,
primarily because the President is stronger. The Con-
gressional Campaign Committee is privately predicting
a minimum pickup of 20-25 seats, recognizing we could win
more if the tide is strong enough. Jerry Ford is still
working on the prospect of Southern Democrat switchovers
after the election if we are close enough to the magic
number of 218 seats required to organize the House. The
present lineup is 178 GOP (plus Brad Morse vacancy) and
255 Democrats (plus Governor Edwards of Louisiana vacancy).
In order to win 218 we must keep everything we have,
including the Brad Morse vacancy, and pick up 39.
Attachment A contains a listing in state alphabetical
order of the top 10 incumbent seats which need defending
(most vulnerable on our side) ; our best 10 possible
pickups; and then our second best 10 possible pickups.
Attachment B contains a listing of congressional seats
targeted by the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee,
defensively and offensively. The ones underscored in red
need priority attention to win.
&
TOP 10 THAT NEED DEFENDING
1.
California 6
Mailliard
2.
Colorado 1
McKevitt
3.
Iowa 1
Schwengel
4.
Iowa 4
Kyl
5.
Indiana 10
Dennis
6.
Michigan 2
Esch
7.
Minnesota 6
Zwach
8.
Tennessee 8
Kuykendall
9.
Utah 2
Lloyd
10. Wisconsin 3
Thomson
TOP POSSIBLE PICKUPS (TOP 10)
1. California 36
Ketchum (new seat)
2.
California 42 (safe)
Burgener (new seat)
3.
Illinois 17
O'Brien (new seat)
4.
Indiana 11
Hudnut (Jacobs)
5.
Maine 2
Cohen (Dem. open)
6.
New York 26
Gilman (Dow)
7.
North Carolina 4
Hawke (Dem. open)
8.
Pennsylvania 9
Shuster (Rep. open)
9.
South Dakota 2
Abdnor (Dem. open)
10.
Washington 4
Bledsoe (McCormac) primary 9/19
POSSIBLE PICKUPS (SECOND 10)
1. Illinois 3
Hanrahan (new seat).
2.
Illinois 10
Young (Mikva)
3. Illinois 11
Hoellen (Annunzio)
4.
Illinois 22
Lamkin (Shipley)
5.
Indiana 4
Bloom (Roush)
6.
Kentucky 6
Jackson (Dem. open)
7.
Maryland 4
Holt (new seat)
8.
Massachusetts 12
Weeks (Rep. open)
9.
Mississippi 5
Lott (Dem. open)
10.
New Jersey 12
Rinaldo (Rep. open)
B
CODE:
ND - NEW DISTRICT
RO - REPUBLICAN OPEN
DO - DEMOCRAT OPEN
AS OF 9-5-72
PAIR - TWO INCUMBENTS
* - INCUMBENT
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ALABAMA
2
* Dickinson
Reeves
ALASKA
AL
Young
* Begich
ND
ARIZONA
4
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
CALIFORNIA
6
* Mailliard
Boas
CALIFORNIA
7
Hannaford
* Dellums
ND
CALIFORNIA
11
Chase
Ryan
CALIFORNIA
18
* Mathias
Lavery
RO
CALIFORNIA
20
Moorhead
Binkley
-2-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CALIFORNIA
31
Valentine
* C. Wilson
CALIFORNIA
34
Ratterree
* Hanna
CALIFORNIA
35
Brown
* Anderson
ND
CALIFORNIA
36
Ketchum
Lemucchi
ND
CALIFORNIA
38
Snider
Brown
RO
CALIFORNIA
39
Hinshaw
Black
ND
CALIFORNIA
42
Burgener
Lowe
COLORADO
1
* McKevitt
Primary 9/12
COLORADO
4
Primary 9/12
* Aspinall
ND
COLORADO
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
-3-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
CONNECTICUT
1
Rittenband
* Cotter
CONNECTICUT
2
* Steele
Hilsman
CONNECTICUT
5
Sarasin
* Monagan
ND
FLORIDA
5
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
FLORIDA
8
Thompson
* Haley
ND
FLORIDA
10
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
ND
FLORIDA
13
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
RO
GEORGIA
5
Cook
Young
RO
IDAHO
1
Symms
Williams
ND
ILLINOIS
3
Hanrahan
Coman
-4-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
ND
ILLINOIS
10
Young
* Mikva
ILLINOIS
11
Hoellen
* Annunzio
ND
ILLINOIS
17
O'Brien
Houlihan
RO
ILLINOIS
21
Madigan
Johnson
ILLINOIS
22
Lamkin
* Shipley
INDIANA
2
* Landgrebe
Fithian
INDIANA
3
Newman
* Brademas
INDIANA
4
Bloom
* Roush
INDIANA
8
* Zion
Deen
INDIANA
10
* Dennis
Sharp
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
INDIANA
11
Hudnutt
* Jacobs
IOWA
1
* Schwengel
Mezvinsky
IOWA
2
Ellsworth
* Culver
PAIR
IOWA
4
* Kyl
* Smith
KANSAS
2
McAtee
* Roy
KANSAS
3
* Winn
Barsotti
KENTUCKY
3
Kaelin
* Mazzoli
DO
KENTUCKY
6
Jackson
Breckinridge
LOUISIANA
3
Treen
Run-Off 9-30
MAINE
1
Porteous
* Kyros
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
DO
MAINE
2
Cohen
Violette
MARYLAND
1
* Mills
Hargreaves
ND
MARYLAND
4
Holt
Fornos
MARYLAND
6
Mason
* Byron
MASSACHUSETTS
4
Primary 9/19
Drinan
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
5
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
MASSACHUSETTS
6
Moseley
* Harrington
RO
MASSACHUSETTS
12
Weeks
Studds
MICHIGAN
2
* Esch
Stempien
MICHIGAN
12
Serotkin
*
0' Hara
-7-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
HubER
ND
MICHIGAN
18
* Broomfield
Montgomery
MINNESOTA
6
* Zwach
Nolan
MINNESOTA
7
Haaven
* Bergland
DO
MISSISSIPPI
2
Butler
Bowen
DO
MISSISSIPPI
4
Cochran
Bodron
DO
MISSISSIPPI
5
Lott
Stone
DO
MISSOURI
6
Sloan
Litton
RO
MISSOURI
7
Taylor
Thomas
MONTANA
1
* Shoup
Olsen
NEW JERSEY
3
Dowd
* Howard
-8-
:
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW JERSEY
6
* Forsythe
Brennan
NEW JERSEY
9
Schiaffo
* Helstoski
RO
NEW JERSEY
12
Rinaldo
English
ND
NEW JERSEY
13
Maraziti
Meyner
NEW MEXICO
2
Presson
Runnels
NEW YORK
1
Boyd
* Pike
ND
NEW YORK
3
Roncallo
Bales
NEW YORK
6
Gallagher
* Wolff
NEW YORK
23
* Peyser
Ottinger
NEW YORK
24
Vergari
* Reid
-9-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
NEW YORK
26
Gilman
* Dow
RO
NEW YORK
31
Mitchell
Castle
NEW YORK
32
Koldin
* Hanley
RO
NEW YORK
33
Walsh
Kadys
NEW YORK
36
* Smith
McCarthy
DO
NORTH CAROLINA
4
Hawke
Andrews
RO
NORTH CAROLINA
9
Martin
Beatty
RO
OHIO
4
Guyer
Nicholas
OHIO
8
* Powell
Ruppert
RO
OHIO
16
Regula
Musser
-10-
:
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
OHIO
19
Parr
* Carney
RO
OKLAHOMA
1
Run-Off 9-19
Jones
DO
OKLAHOMA
2
Toliver
McSpadden
PENNSYLVANIA
5
* Ware
Franco
RO
PENNSYLVANIA
9
Shuster
Collins
Pa
20
Hunt
*Gaydos
PENNSYLVANIA
14
Catarinella
* Moorehead
SOUTH CAROLINA
1
Limehouse
* Davis
SOUTH DAKOTA
1
Vickerman
* Denholm
DO
SOUTH DAKOTA
2
Abdnor
McKeever
TENNESSEE
3
* Baker
Sompayrac
-11-
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
TENNESSEE
6
Beard
* Anderson
TENNESSEE
8
*
Kuykendall
Patterson
TEXAS
5
Steelman
* Cabell
he
PAIR
TEXAS
13
* Price
* Purcell
UTAH
1
Primary 9/12
McKay
UTAH
2
* Lloyd
Primary 9/12
VIRGINIA
4
Daniel
Gibson
RO
VIRGINIA
6
Butler
Anderson
RO
VIRGINIA
8
Parris
Horan
RO
WASHINGTON
1
Primary 9/19
Primary 9/19
WASHINGTON
4
Primary 9/19
* McCormack
-12-
:
CODE STATE
DISTRICT
GOP CANDIDATE
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
COMMENT
WISCONSIN
1
Primary 9/12
* Aspin
WISCONSIN
3
* Thomson
Primary 9/12
PAIR WISCONSIN
7
* O'Konski
* Obey
WISCONSIN
8
Primary 9/12
Primary 9/12
WYOMING
AL
Kidd
* Roncalio
EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT
WHAT'S HAPPENING
WHO'S AHEAD
IN POLITICS TODAY
1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Room 1312
Washington, D.C. 20006
202-298-7850
September 6, 1972 - No. 144
TO
:
Our Subscribers
FROM:
Evans-Novak
President Richard M. Nixon and top White House politicians are far more
worried than they are willing to admit by over-confidence resulting from the
impact of the huge Nixon lead over Sen. George McGovern for the Presidency
in all the public opinion polls. This extraordinary lead has so far masked
the inefficiencies and factional disputes inside the Nixon camp. We believe
that the White House VS. the Committee to Re-elect the President dispute
could have potentially dangerous results. The way in which the Watergate
Scandal has been handled is certainly no cause for GOP confidence. Worst of
all, there is no clear plan for Mr. Nixon's own activities this fall, which
leads us to this prediction: despite all the talk about the President running
his campaign from the Oval Office, Mr. Nixon will hit the hustings far more
vigorously than seemed likely before the Republican National Convention, with
no holds barred. Conclusion: Great danger for the President and the GOP if
he really lets himself go a la 1970.
The Republican's problems, however, are nothing compared to George
McGovern's misfortunes. Since our last Report, we have been unable to locate
any discernible rise in McGovern's and the Democratic Party's low state. The
only change we have found is a new loss of confidence in McGovern within his
own camp from politicians and aides who have been sorely disappointed and
disillusioned by his failure to take hold and resolve organizational problems.
As of today, we can report that our state-by-state checks show Nixon winning
all 50 states, with McGovern capturing only the District of Columbia. All
the breaks are going against him -- including the Munich tragedy which now
will dominate the media just as McGovern's campaign is at last starting to
move.
The real fight this year is for control of Congress. If President Nixon
maintains his present lead, he could bring in a GOP House, but this is un-
likely. Although it is still too early for a race-by-race analysis of the
House, we can now analyze the Senate, where there is a slightly better pros-
pect for Democratic retention of control than we last reported on the Senate
three weeks ago.
ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS
Our incredible report that RMN would win 50 states today surely marks
the low point of McGovern's slide, and almost certainly he will do better on
November 7th. It should be remembered that in our first state-by-state anal-
ysis, provided on June 7th, we gave McGovern 3 Probable states and 4 Leaning
to him, and many experts thought we were exaggerating his difficulties.
Copyright © 1972 by the Evans-Novak Political Report Company
Issued every other week at $60 per year
Our present 50 state analysis is based on private and public polls in
all but one state, Massachusetts. The last available survey there, a private
one, showed McGovern leading Nixon by 3 points, but this was taken before the
Eagleton Affair and the disastrous McGovern campaigning during the week of
the GOP convention. Since then, his drop has been at least 3 points just
about everywhere (and more like 7-10 points in most places), so we must as-
sume that McGovern now trails in Massachusetts. Politicians of both parties,
however, tell us that they expect McGovern to carry Massachusetts, and we
suspect this is his best state.
REPUBLICANS
Our feeling that the President will not be contained in his Oval Office
this fall was reinforced by his first campaign trip to Chicago and the Detroit
suburbs after the Republican Convention. He attacked McGovern with full force
on two issues: amnesty and busing. This could be dangerous for Nixon on two
counts: it could revive Democratic partisanship and a rallying-around-the-flag
for Democrats who have been deserting McGovern in droves; and it could whet
Nixon's appetite for a full-fledged old-style Nixon campaign, which all
experience has shown costs him votes wherever he goes.
Organization: On a more genteel, Republican note, it's a little remin-
iscent of the Democratic shambles (although with RMN's huge lead, it really
doesn't matter all that much). The basic power struggle is between Clark
MacGregor's Re-election Committee staff (though there are internal battles
there) and Chuck Colson at the White House. There's a lot of back-biting
and back-stabbing going on, but there's no question who's the real boss:
H. R. (Bob) Haldeman at the White House.
Tactics: The biggest issue in the background of all this is the ques-
tion whether Nixon will go off into orbit again, particularly if McGovern
begins to make up some ground. That's why it is a matter of some worry that
there is no definite scenario for the President's conduct during the campaign,
giving him the opening to try for a '70-style free-wheeling campaign for
which the McGovern people are desperately hoping. Also there is some fear
that Colson's own hard-line tactics will reinforce Mr. Nixon's well-known
proclivities, considering Colson's present degree of influence at the White
House.
Issues: RMN looks good to us as of today on the issues, even if -- as
appears more and more to be the case -- the Vietnam War doesn't end before the
election. On the war, we see a washout at worst for Nixon, a plus of some
magnitude at best. On the economy, Nixon looks better every day despite a
slight rise in unemployment. Every economic indicator now available seems
to assure a rising economy at least through election day. But the President's
best issue of all, clearly indicated in almost all the polls, is voter per-
ception of him as a known commodity -- even if a much unloved one -- opposed
by an unknown commodity who scares many voters. Evidence: Polls finding that
the alienated voter and the union member go to Nixon over McGovern. This makes
RMN almost invulnerable, but the one element that could shake him is for the
present Nixon to remind the voters too much of the old Nixon.
Watergate Caper: We cannot imagine how the scandal could have been handled
worse. We still have yet to see any evidence that its impact extends beyond
Washington, but the cover-up here has all the earmarks of guilt. We have yet
to talk to a single top aide who privately does not feel that much too much
has been concealed. GOP National Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Dole's counter-
attack lacks punch and credibility, but we do not believe the voters are going
to get turned on by this issue unless indictments reach into high levels of
the Party and/or White House apparatus.
Agnew: He seems intent on his new soft line. For the first time, he has
no Nixon aides along as governesses. His major aide will be his ex-Baltimore
law partner George White. Spiro Agnew must strengthen his political staff to
get ready for 1976 now that he has apparently made the decision to make a try
for the Presidency.
DEMOCRATS
Organization: Factional and personal rivalries are to be expected in
Presidential campaigns, but we have never seen anything even to approach the
McGovern campaign. We are now finding increasing complaints from the battlers
for power that McGovern himself is to blame, showing weakness and unPresidential
indecision in letting the power struggle drag on so long.
The basic struggle for power right now involves Gary Hart, who is in
nominal control, versus DNC Chairman Jean Westwood, who makes no secret of her
opinion that McGovern would be in much better shape if she were in supreme
command. But it's not nearly that simple. Hart's ally against Westwood is
Frank Mankiewicz, who is in charge of the travelling campaign but wants a
larger slice. Westwood also has a rival with her Deputy Chairman, Basil
Patterson. Hovering over all is old pro Larry O'Brien who is insisting that
as "chief spokesman" of the campaign that media -- and all statements made by
all campaign aides -- stress one point above all others: that McGovern is
the Democratic Party nominee. O'Brien is also trying to: 1) Calm the free-
for-all; 2) Coordinate all aspects of the campaign; 3) Get McGovern and everyone
else to concentrate on a couple of simple themes: the Party, taxes, the War
and Richard Nixon. There are many -- inside and outside the campaign -- who
feel that McGovern should have turned supreme command over to O'Brien right
after the Convention. Now, they fear, it all may be too late.
We find increasing criticism of the organization on two points:
1) There is no campaign in many states. In Southern California, for
example, there has been no visible sign of any activity in Los Angeles county
since the June primary. Pennsylvania is another disaster area.
2) Gary Hart is putting together too "heavy" an organization -- too
much money and too permanent a structure, trying to do something nationally
in three months similar to what was done in Wisconsin over two years.
Strategy: We feel McGovern has lost enthusiasm within his own camp with-
out gaining anything at all by his moves rightward -- the meetings with LBJ
and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, the American Legion and VFW speeches, the
jettisoning of the $1,000 for everyone grant, the centrist tone of his
speeches. He would have been criticized had he not made these rightward
moves, but they have given him the image of just another opportunistic pol-
itician, and now, on top of all his other problems, add credibility.
Strategically, these are lining up as McGovern's three big points:
1) Run against Richard Nixon. Hence the emphasis on the Watergate mess.
2) Build up sentiment against RMN's bombing policy in Vietnam. We tend
to feel that all those outraged by the bombings are already for McGovern.
3) Show the voters that Nixon is condoning an inequitable tax system.
This, we believe, would be McGovern's best issue, if properly exploited as a
neo-Wallaceite attack on government, bureaucrats, spending, etc.
Tactics: McGovern is really ploughing new ground in his three major-media-
centers-a-day campaigning plan devised by Fred Dutton. The idea is to hit the
evening local tv news in three separate areas each day, which is fine if 1) the
candidate can take the pace, and 2) the local pols don't get too riled by the
short visits.
McGovern's real tactical problems continue to stem from his mistakes:
i.e. endorsing the Ramsey Clark-to-Hanoi and Pierre Salinger-to-Paris fiascoes,
and, on a smaller scale, going to the Southern Governors Conference, despite
the warnings from aides that the campaign would start off on a flat note.
Registration: Ballyhooed as McGovern's secret weapon, this has turned
into the largest battleground and now wasteland of the campaign, a disaster
area which has been over-staffed, under-financed and rife with internecine
warfare. Present result: much carnage and few new voters registered.
Shriver: Sargent Shriver, as we suspected, is proving troublesome, along
with his enthusiastic but amateurish staff. He and they bring real assets to
the campaign, energy and the Kennedy glitter among them, but the wild and
foolish statements and lack of political judgment is producing credibility
and other problems.
SENATE
As of today, we read the Senate, now 55-45 Democratic, going 52-48 Demo-
cratic. Please bear in mind that nobody has really focused in on the Senate
races yet, and that these can change dramatically in the weeks ahead. We see
the following seats changing hands if the election were held today:
South Dakota: Rep. James Abourezk (D) leads over Robert Hirsch (R) for
the seat being vacated by Sen. Karl Mundt (R), but by only 4 points. Abourezk
is running ahead of McGovern today. Democratic Takeover.
North Carolina: All signs continue to point to a win for Jesse Helms (R)
against Rep. Nick Galifianakis (D), who toppled Sen. Everett Jordan (D) in the
primary. GOP Takeover.
Rhode Island: Ex-Gov. and Navy Sec. John Chafee (R) is still favored to
unseat Sen. Claiborne Pell (D) but Pell is now gaining in the polls. Pell had
been expected to trail the ticket but is currently running far ahead of
McGovern. GOP Takeover.
New Mexico: We still see Peter Domenici (R) over Jack Daniels (D) in
the fight for retiring Sen. Clinton Anderson's (D) seat. GOP Takeover.
Oklahoma: One of the closest, but we see Rep. Ed Edmondson (D) losing
to ex-Gov. Dewey Bartlett (R) for the struggle for retiring Sen. Fred Harris's
(D) seat. Very, very close. GOP Takeover.
To win control of the Senate, the GOP also will have to win these two
races, where we now find the Democrats ahead.
Georgia: The defeat of appointive Sen. David Gambrell (D) by State
Rep Sam Nunn (D) in the primary runoff was a Godsend for the Democrats in
the race against Rep. Fletcher Thompson (R), who would have been a heavy favor-
ite against Gambrell. Thompson is a slight underdog against Nunn, who is even
more liberal than Gambrell. Tentatively a Democratic Retention.
Alabama: Sen. John Sparkman (D) leads ex-Postmaster General Red Blount (R)
substantially in the polls but a black Democratic candidate will drain lots of
votes from Sparkman. For now, a Democratic Retention.
However, two other races could turn into Democratic Takeovers:
Michigan: Sen. Robert Griffin (R) barely leads State Atty. Gen. Frank
Kelley (D) and, considering RMN's present big lead in the state, that may not
be good enough. So, hesitantly, a GOP Retention.
Idaho: Everybody feels that Rep. James McClure (R) has a clear but small
lead against Bud Davis (D) for the seat being vacated by Sen. Len Jordan (R).
This one's far from over. But for now, a GOP Retention.
Rolard Erros
Rout D. Nords
This Report is copyrighted and prepared for the confidential information of our clients.
Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is prohibited.
G check B.T. per PalRead on healership Mig.
9/7
mac G, White, Failor, Maguder, mark,
Dailey Jooner Findeldeen, anderson, Reisner, malel
45m
ha Rue, miller
J8M 50 St possil
cm - has mtg - P Domenieck, Scott +
allott + cotten per a St by St
Sen analysis
Domin - 50/50 Dance of 5 seat
gain-fairly bullish
P,- no comment on Rany
- need Byrd help + presence
in Key 8ts - olda, Ga,
nm, SD, ment Tx
mich
must per pr
in these 85
Dona- need 500, 000 -
P - will see to it you get t.
- w illing to subscribe to Stansrule
that ne $ collected by Slans for
to ge to sen a Cong races
- anticipates a separate Comm
to be set up
- Gala - now 2 way split
- Bebot + Rillis want to tall about
Sen races
cm- doesn't believe in expanding Key St
to 50 St comp
- doubt aller of $
Teeter - LA/orange cnty - 7-8 pts
ahad - much horder in Col to
get the increase enjoyed notily
Dailey
Stans Dailey 3-7 mil under
compaign
what Dailey wants (10 mil)
Opposed to any P'tial compagning
But don't rill goose that laid golden egg. 43% Dams.
Teeter
10 pts ahead in wash
no- Pnow ahead-new pall
Pet news Pall - 17-18 pts ahood
all agree person P appearances + compaign
most changeable - Suris + UP's
cm - assumen 10/15 - still Oleeping P comp
separate Rr/Sen + 60mg camp.
- Help Sent Cong races to Deep Rep
Party arraers happy.
Booter Herold
'n
J
-685
me G - 57 / 33 Rn - Voters 18-24
Fraeder
Rdease R1-362 Drop mass - miG me G-4pt led
Poll
Mon.
53-36 MCG Con 47 40 ni / UC474 the
Ford a Wilson's list - best Cong info
2cm's view hewants to be Spren sobad
Letter of Enderse- cm to rese
w/ H on 9/8 for w/p on 9/12
Tues night
who pie's of P. - Dent Lest
Whe BT cleared Cong men
Needer to Neighber Fundraising
(oct Oct 10- night for nexon
FM- - eulleworn
Dailey - why not on 9/26,
Peall Tie - Orange to Bus suits
Talle only $10 ser person.
Proposal - and oluk. 9/7
Slatees 9/16 - coneass
Nelson Roe - not doing it- -
Lha Rue to get Jm toget tenR
know on Door
all Celeb's separate spots
work in their own precents
White to get Powliley
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY GROUP
Meeting of September 7, 1972
AGENDA
1. Should we consider a mcderate reallocation of resources (without
compromising our key-state strategy) to seek a 50-state win for
the President?
2. Congressional races--
"Under what circumstances, if any, should we consider
offering campaign assistance to selected Senate and
House candidates?
"If the decision is made to assist Congressional
candidates, what form should that assistance take?
-- Money
--- Campaign planning/management
-- Presidential involvement
* letter of endorsement
* photographs
* campaign visit
* joint advertising
* issue material
Pro-Nixon
Anti-McGovern
TALKING PAPER
CURRENT CAMPAIGN SITUATION: The wide lead attributed to the President
in the Gallup and Harris polls is well beyond what had been expected
for this stage of the campaign. It is generally expected that the
margin will decrease before Election Day. There is the very real
possibility, however, of a landslide vote for the President. In that
context, it is appropriate that the Strategy Group review the existing
plans for the campaign.
50-STATE CAMPAIGN: Published and private polls indicate that the President
is even with or well ahead of McGovern in every state except the District
of Columbia. It is plausible that with a modest reallocation of resources.
not endangering our target state strategy, a 50-state win is within the
reach of the President. Such an accomplishment could increase his political
strength in the second term.
CONGRESSIONAL RACES: The present make-up of the Senate is 55 Democrats
and 45 Republicans. The present make-up of the House is 177 Republicans,
255 Democrats and 3 vacancies. If the President does approach a land-
slide victory, there is the possibility that the Republicans could win
one or both of the Houses of Congress. That possibility would be greatly
enhanced by careful planning of which House and Senate races should receive
attention, and what kind of help, if any, would be meaningful to the
Republican candidates. The candidates for each of the 33 Senate races
are listed in Tab I. One analysis of the current status of those races
- 2 -
is given in Tab II, although other political observers might disagree
with the conclusions in specific races. A compilation of House races
is given in Tab III. Much additional analysis must be done of individual
House races of interest, particularly because redistricting has substantially
changed the constituencies of many Congressional districts.
One factor in the Presidential coattail effect is whether it is possible
to vote a straight party ticket with one pull of the voting lever, or
one "X" on a paper ballot. Tab IV, provided by the RNC, lists those
31 states where straight ticket voting is possible. In the remaining
19 states, each office must be voted for separately.
The decision of whether or not the Re-election Committee should concern
itself at all with Congressional races should not be made until the re-
sults of the 3rd wave of polling has been analyzed. In preparation for
that decision, however, the Strategy Group should develop some thoughts
on what forms of assistance it might be in a position to provide to
Congressional candidates, and on what basis the selection should be made
of which candidates to assist.
TAB I
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 4, 1972
SUBJECT:
Senate Races
Listed below are the candidates for the United States Senate in every
state where a seat is up for election:
(Incumbents are denoted by an asterisk (*), and the winning percentage is
shown in parentheses.)
State
Candidates
Comments
Alaska
Stevens
(R)
(59.9%)
App't by Gov. Hickel at
death of Sen. E.L. Bartlett
Guess
(D)
Speaker, Alaska House of
Representatives
Alabama
Sparkman
(D)
(61.0%)
Dean of the Alabama
Congressional Delegation
Blount
(R)
Former Postmaster General
Baines
(Comm)
Arkansas
McClellan
(D) *
(unopposed)
Secking Sixth Term; Chairman
Senate Appropriations Comm.
Labbitt
(R)
Veterinarian
Colorado
Allott
(R.)
(58.0%)
Seeking fourth term
Vollack
(D)
State Senator
Haskell
(D)
Former State Legislator
-2--
State
Candidates
Comments
Delaware
Boggs
(R) *
(59.1%)
Seeking third term
Biden
(D)
Lawyer:New Castle County
Council Rep.; 29 yrs. old
Mijka
(Amer)
Georgia
Nunn
(D)
Defeated incumbent Gov. Carter
appointee DAVID GAMBRELL in
runoff election 8/29/72.
Thompson
(R)
Incumbent fifth District
Congressman
Idaho
Davis
(D)
President, Idaho State U.
McClure
(R)
First District Congressman
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Illinois
Percy
(R) *
(54.9%)
Seeking second term
Pucinski
(D)
Congressman-11th District
Gross
(Soc.Labor)
Halstead (Soc.Workers)
Iowa
Miller
(R) *
(62.2%)
Seeking third term
Clark
(D)
AA to 2nd District
Congressman John Culver
Rocap
(AIP)
Kansas
Pearson
(R) *
(52.1%)
Seeking third full term
Tetzlaff
(D)
Anesthesiclegist
Miller
(Con.)
Hadin
(Pro.)
-3-
State
Candidates
Comments
Kentucky
Huddleston
(D)
Broadcasting Executive
Nunn
(R)
Former Governor
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Moffett
(Peo)
Embry
(Amer.)
Louisiana
Johnston
(D)
State Senator
(Incumbent Dem. Ellender
recently deceased. Wife of
Dem.Gov. Edwin Edwards app't t
to fill rest of Ellender term.
Toledano, Ben C. (R.)
Ran for Mavor of N.O.-43% of
vote.
McKiethen (Ind)
Former Demo. Governor.
Maine
Smith
(R) *
(58.9%)
Seeking fifth term
llathaway
(D)
Second Dist. Congressman
Massachusetts
Brooke
(R) *
(60.7%)
Seeking second term
O'Leary
(D)
Boston City Councilman
Droney
(D)
District attorney
Lynch
(D)
Gurewitz
(Soc.Work.)
Michigan
Griffin
(R) *
(55.0%)
Seeking second full term;
Senate Minority Whip
Kelley
(i))
Michigan Attorney General
-4.
State
Candidates
Comments
Minnesota
Mondale
(DFL)*
(54.9%)
Seeking election to
Second Full Term
Hansen
(R)
Lutheran Minister
Franklin
(DFL)
Griffin
(DFL)
Leaf
(DFL)
Heck
(Indust. Gov't.)
Mississippi
Eastland
(D)
(73.3%)
Chairman, Senate Judiciary
Committee
Carmichael
(R)
Automobile Dealer
Montana
Metcalf
(D) *
(53.2%)
Seeking third term
Hibbard
(R)
State Senator
Nebraska
Curtis
(R) *
(61.0%)
Seeking reelection to
fourth term.
Carpenter
(D)
State Senator
New Hampshire
McIntyre
(D) *
(54.1%)
First elected Nov. 1962
Powell
(R)
Former Two Term Governor
Cobleigh
(R)
State House Speaker
Brock
(R)
Former U.S. Attorney
Booras
(R)
New Jersey
Case
(R) *
(61.6%)
Secking fourth term
Krebs
(D)
Former U. S. Rep.
Fround
(Amer.)
-5-
State
Candidates
Comments
Levin
(Soc.Labor)
Wiley
(Concerned Voter's Voice)
New Mexico
Domenici
(R)
Unsuccessful GOP Candidate
for Governor in 1970.
Daniels
(D)
Former State Rep.
(Dem. Incumbent retiring)
N. Carolina
Galifianakis (D)
4th Dist. Cong. ;defeated inc.
in run-off primary
Helms
(R)
Oklahoma
Edmondson
(D)
Inc. Congressman; 2nd Dist.
(Dem. inc. retiring)
Bartlett
(R)
Former Governor
Oregon
Hatfield
(R) *
(51.7%)
Seeking second term
Morse
(D)
Former U.S. Senator
Rhode Island
Pull
(D) *
(67.7%)
Seeking third term
Chafee
(R)
Former Gov.; Former Sec.
of the Navy
South Caro:
Thurmond
(R) ::
(62.2%)
Secking reelection to
lina
fourth term
Ziegler
(D)
S. Dakota
Abourezk
(ii)
U.S. Rep; 2nd District
Hirsch!
(R)
Former State Senator
(GOP incumbent retiring)
Tennessee
Baker
(R) :
(55.7%)
Seeking Second Term
Blanton
(D)
Inc. 7th Dist: Congress
-6-
State
Candidates
Comments
Texas
Tower
(R) *
(56.4%)
Seeking reelection to second
full term
Sanders
(D)
Virginia
Spong
(D) *
(58.5%)
Seeking second term
Scott
(R)
Inc. old 8th District
Henderson
(Indep.)
W. Virginia
Randolph
(D) *
(59.5%)
Seeking reelection to third
full term
Leonard
(R)
State Senator
Wyoming
Hansen
(R) *
(51.8%)
Seeking second term
Vinich
(D)
Former AA to Democrat
Congressman Roncalio
TAB II
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 4, 1972
The following analysis of the 33 Senate races of 1972 represents
the comments of Arthur Finkelstein, Cliff White, Ed Failor and Bob Marik
Safe Republican Sents - no help necessary (10): Brooke (Mass.),
Case (N.J.), Boggs (Del.), Percy (III.), Baker (Tenn.), Thurmond
(S.C.), Miller (Iowa), Curtis (Neb.), Allott (Colo.), Steyens
(Alaska). (Note: It might be appropriate to show some support
for Senator Baker, since Senator Brock is receiving much public
exposure in the context of the Presidential Youth Campaign.)
Safe Democratic Sents - no help could change the outcome (4):
Eastland (Miss.), McClelland (Ark.), Mondale (Minn.), Randolph (W. Va.)
States Where Help Could Be a Pactor: (19) (The races where help
would be the rest critical are denoted by asterish.)
Alabama: Consensus is that Blount has a chance, although
he seems to be far behind Sparkman in early readings.
Assistance in forms other than money may be what is needed.
Georgia*: Fletcher Thompson's chances have dimmed with
the nomination of Nunn over Gambrell. Still a good oppor-
tunity for for Republicons to gain a seat, but money is needed.
Idalio: McClure is probably ahead of his Democratic opponent,
Davis. However, race is not certain, and he is thought
to be limited in financial resources.
Kansas: Pearson, the Republican incumbent should win. -
However, he wen only 52.1% of the vote in 1966, and
Democratic Governor Docking, secking re-election, will
be a strong factor on the other side of the ticket.
Kentucky: Former Governor Num is thought to be chead,
but not a sure winner. 1f he was persuaded to run in
pert by 1701, then financial and other compaign support
my be approprints.
Louisiana: The death of Senator Illender creates an en-
tirely new situation. Little is known of the strength of
the candidates or the attitude of the voters. Overall
trends in the South make a strong Republican showing possible.
A thorough analysis should be performed of that race, with
the intent of providing help if the race is winnable.
Maine: There are some rumors that Senator Smith is in
trouble. Generally, these are discounted because of her
perennial strength in the state, and the anticipation
of a strong Nixon showing there. More information should
be obtained, and if help could be decisive, we should provide it.
Michigan*: Senator Griffin is in a tight race, and has
limited funds. We are already working closely with him
in door-to-door canvassing and telephone centers to identify
both Nixon and Griffin voters. Criffin was unable to
provide funds for his planned share of the telephone centers.
If the President is substantially ahead in Michigan, as
Yankelovich claims, Griffin may also have moved up. The
latest Teeter polls will tell.
Montana*: Metcalf should be beatable. llis 1966 percentage
was only 53.2%. The President has huge leads in polls
of nearby states, and could provide a coattail effect for
the Republican candidate, Hibbard. The important thing
would be to avoid, if possible, active participation by
Mansfield. Money may not be a problem in Hibbard's race.
New Hampshire: The President should run well in New Hampshire.
Mclntyre may be beatable. Judgment should be witheld until
the Republican nominee is determined on September 12th. Little
hard data now seems to be available on McIntyre's prespects.
New Mexico*: This contest represents one of our best
chances to pick up a seat. Domenici, the Republican is
thought to be ahead now. Daniels, the Democrat, has a lot
of money, and could buy the election if our men runs out
of funds.
North Carolina*: Another prime target to pick up a seat.
At the mement, the contest secns to be fairly even. We
should provide whatever help is needed for Jesse Helms
to win.
Orlahoma: The race looks even today. ^ big Kixon victory
should pull Dawey Bartlett in. lle seems to have no money
problems.
Oregon: Wayne Morse may give Hatfield a hard race. We
should determine whether he needs additional resources.
Rhode Island*: Chafee said to be comfortably out in front.
Recent direct attacks by Democrats on his hawk-dove stands
on Victnam have hurt somewhat. This looks like the most
vulnerable of the seats where we now have apparent large
leads. We should assure that Chafee does not lose for
lack of resources.
South Dakota*: The Democrat is now thought to be ahead
in this race for Mundt's seat. If the President has the
large lead reported in the Dakota Poll, then the Senate
seat should be winnable. A Senate compaign here is in-
expensive, and we should go all-out to try to preserve
this seat in the Republican column. The McGovern "coat-
tails" may work for us in South Dakota.
Texas*: Tower needs lots of help. We are working with
him on telephone convassing. Any other form of help that
would be useful should also be offered where possible.
Virginia: The political shifts in this election year should
make Spong vulnerable. However, our candidate, Scott, is
thought to be weak. He should be offered total campaign
assistance even up to having someone like Cliff White
assigned to the campaign.
Wyoming: Hansen won in 1966 by only 51.8%. lle should be
in better shape in 1972, and the President should do well
there. Modest financial backing may make all the differ-
ence in Wyoming.
TAB III
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
September 7, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
SUBJECT:
Congressional Races
As a part of our ongoing analysis of the total 1972 campaign,
the attached summary of Congressional races has been prepared.
(See Tab A.) It shows the margin by which each district was
won in 1970 by the present incumbent. Also noted are races
where the incumbent is not running in 1972.
Marginal districts are taken to be those in which the winner
had 55% or less of the total vote. In Tab B, the candidates
are shown for each of the marginal races. In Tab C, the
candidates are shown for the districts in which no incumbent
is running. These include newly-formed districts based on
the 1970 Census.
This summary represents only the initial overview of the
Congressional races. Its purpose is to enable us to set
aside those races where no real contest is likely to occur,
and to focus on those that warrant closer analysis. The criterion
of margin of victory in 1970 must be viewed with some care,
because in many states, redistricting has substantially altered
the constituencies of the individual Congressional districts.
The races of interest must be evaluated through political
intelligence acquired from the field and through qualified
observers in Washington and elsewhere in the country.
CONFIDENTIAL
TAB A
SUMMARY OF CONGRESSIONAL RACES BY STATE FOR 1972
(Figures are Congressional District
numbers, tabulated according to the
1970 margin of victory by the incumbent
now running.)
REPUBLICAN
MARGINAL
DEMOCRATIC
No
Over
Over
Incumbent
State
60 %
56%-60%
53%-55%
48%-52%
53%-55%
56%-60%
60 % :
Running
ALASKA
1,
ALABAMA
1,2,
6,
3,4,5,
7.
ARIZONA
1,3
2,
4*,
ARKANSAS
3,
1,2,4
CALIF.
1,10,12
13,
5,
43,
34,
7,22
2,3,4,
8,11*,20,
17,18,
5,9,14,
36*,37*,
23,24,
15,16,
38*,39,42*
25,27,
19,21,
28,32,
26,29,
33,40
30,31,
35,41
COLORADO
2,
1,
4,
3,
5*
CONN.
2,4,
1,6,
5,
3,
DELAWARE
1,
FLORIDA
6,9,
12,
8,
4,
1,2,3,
5*,10*,13*
7,11,
14,15,
GEORGIA
4,
2,3,6,
1,5.
7,8,9,
10,
HAWAII
1,2,
IDAHO
2,
1,
ILLINOIS
4,6,13,
12,
22,
1,2,5,
3,17,21
14,15,
7,8,9,
16,18,
10,11,
19,20
23,24
INDIANA
6,
5,7,
2,4,8,10,
3,11
1,9,
IOWA
5,
3,6,
4,
1,
2,
KANSAS
4,5,
1,
3,
2,
KENTUCKY
4,5,
3,
1,2,7,
6,
LOUISIANA
2,
1,4,5,
3,7,8,
6,
MAINE
1.
2,
MARYLAND
5,8,
1,6,
7,
2,3,
4*
MASS.
1,
4,
3,
9,10,
2,6,7,
5,12
8,11
MICHIGAN
2,4,5,
3,10,
1,12,
18%,19,
6,7,8,
13,14,
9,11
15,16,
17,
VAOSIINNIM
1,2,
3,6,
7,
5,
4,8,
MISS.
1,3,
2,4,5,
2
REPUBLICAN
MARGINAL
DEMOCRATIC
No
Over
Over
Incumbent
State
60%
56%-60%
53%-55%
48%-52%
53%-55%
56%-60%
60 %
Running
MO.
2,10
1,3,4,5,8,
6,7,
of
MONTANA
1,
2.
NEB.
3,
1,2,
NEVADA
I,
N.H.
1,2,
N.J.
5,
7,
6,
2,
3,4,8,9,
1,10,11,14
12,13
15,
N.MEX.
1,
2,
N. YORK
2,25,27,
5,25
6,38
1,4,17,26,
14,
7,8,9,10,
3$31,33
30,34,35
32,23,
11,12,13,
36,39.
15,16,18,
19,20,21,
22,24,28
37
NO.CAR.
5,8,10,
1,2,3,6,11
4,7,9,
NO.DAK.
1,
OHIO
1,3,5,6,
2.12,
8,
14,19,
0,18,20,
4,16
7,10,11,
21,22,
13,15,17,
23
OKLA.
6,
3,4,5,
1,2,
OREGON
1,
4,
2,3,
PENN.
10,16,18
5,7,8,12,
19,
4,
1,2,3,6,11
9*
13,17,23,
14,15,20,
21,22,24
25
RH.IS.
1,2,
S.CAR.
2,
1,
0,4,5,6,
S.DAK.
1,
2.
TENN.
1,2.8,
3,
4,5,6,7,
TEXAS
3,7,13
5,6,
1,4,8,9,10
2,18*,24*,
11,12,14,
15,16,17,
19,20,21,
22,23.
UTAH
1,2,
VERMONT
1,
VA.
2,7,9,
10,
1,3,5,
4,6,8,
WASH.
4,
3,
2,5,6,7,
1,
W. VA.
1,2,3,4,
WISC.
6,
3,
9,
1,2,4,5,
8,
7,
WYO.
1,
DIST.of
1,
COL.
TOTAL:
86
23
14
37
8
25
182
56
: New District
+
No Inhumbent-No Republican candidate.
TAB B
CANDIDATES IN MARGINAL RACES
(A) DISTRICTS WHERE INCITIBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 52% OR LESS OF THE
VOTE IN 1970:
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
CALIF.
43
Victor Veysey (R) 50.1%
Ernest Robles (D)
Educator
COLO.
1
J. D. McKevitt (R) 51.3%
Clarence Decker (D)
Patricia Shrooder (D)
CONN.
J.
William Cotter (D) 48.6%
Richard Rittenband (R)
Attorney
Charlie Burke (George
Wallace Party)
6
Ella Grasso (D) 50.7%
John F. Walsh (R)
Attorney
DELAWARE
1
Pierre Dupont (R) 51%
Norma Handloff (D)
Mayor of Newark
Robert LoPresti (Amer.)
FLORIDA
8
James Haley (D) 52.8%
Incumbent old 7th Dist.
Robert Carter (R)
INDIANA
2
Earl Landgrebe (R) 50.4%
Floyd Fithian (D)
4
Edward Roush (D) 51.9%
Allen Bloom (R)
8
Roger Zion (R) 52.6%
Richard Deen (D)
10
David Dennis (R) 50.8%
Philip Sharp (D)
IOWA
1
Fred Schwengel (R) 49.9%
Seeking ninth (non-
consecutive) term
Edward Mezvinsky (D)
Narrowly lost to
Schwengel in 1970
Lee Foster (AIP)
TAB B
(Page 2)
CANDIDATES IN MARGINAL RACES
(A) DISTRICTS WHERE INCUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 52% OR LESS OF THE
VOTE II 1970:
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
KANSAS
2
William Roy (D) 52.8%
Medical Doctor
Charles McAtee (R)
Bert Falley (Con.)
David Scoggin (Pro.)
KENTUCKY
3
Romano Mazzoli (D) 50.1%
Phil Kaelin (R)
Jefferson Cty. Property
Valuation Deputy
MARYLAND
1
William Mills (R) 52.6%
Specially-elected
in 1971
John Hargreaves (D)
6
Goodloe Byron (D) 50.7%
Edward Mason (R)
State Senator
MASS.
4
Robert Drinan (D) 37.7%
Incumbent old 3rd Dist.
(3-way race)
Robert Belmonte (R)
Mass. House Republican
Whip
Lawrence Curtis (R)
Former 5 term Congressman
Martin Linsky (R)
:
State Representative
Avi Nelson (R)
John Collins (Ind/Con)
MINN.
3
William Frenzel (R) 52%
:
William Schnase (R)
Jim Bell (DFL)
Donald Wright (M.T.)
6
John Zwach (R) 51.9%
Richard Nolan (DFL)
MONTANA
1
Richard Shoup (R) 50.6%
Seeking 2nd term
Arnold Olsen (D)
Former U.S. Representative
NEBRASKA
1
Charles Thone (R) 50.6%
Darrel E. Berg (D)
Methodist Minister
2
John McCollister (R) 51.7%
Patrick Cooney (D)
TAB B
(Page 3)
CANDIDATES IN MARGINAL RACES
(A) DISTRICTS WHERE INCUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 52% OR LESS OF THE
VOTE IN 1970:
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
N. JER.
2
Charles Sandman (R) 51.6%
John Rose (D)
Freeholder
Charles Yeager (Ind.)
N. MEX.
2
Harold Runnels (D) 50.8%
George Presson (R)
Former Aide to Cong Lujan
N. YORK
1
Otis Pike (D) 52.3%
Joseph Boyd (R)
Aide to Gov. Rockefeller
Robert Gardiner (Con.)
Business Executive
Robert Samek (Lib.)
Commercial Fisherman
4
Norman Lent (R) 52.8%
Incumbent old 5th Dist.
Elaine Horowitz (D)
Designer
Wallace Searle (Con)
Management Consultant
Aaron Schein (Lib)
Mathematics Professor
17
John Murphy (D) 51.6%
Incumbent old 16th Dist.
Mario Belardino (R&Con)
Attorney
Robert A. Hollis (Lib)
Data Processing Clerk
23
Peter Peyser (R) 42.6%
Incumbent old 25th Dist.
Richard Ottinger (D)
Former Representative
26
John Dow (D) 52%
Incumbent old 27th Dist.
Benjamin Gilman (R)
State Representative
Yale Rapkin (Con)
Attorney
32
James Hanley (D) 51.6%
Incumbent old 35th Dist.
Leonard Koldin (R&Con)
Attorney
OHIO
8
Walter Powell (R) 51.5%
Incumbent old 24th Dist.
James Ruppert (D)
S. CAR.
1
Mendel Davis (D) 48.3%-1971 Specially-clected in 1971
Special Election
after Mendell Rivers died
Sidi Limehouse (R)
TENN.
3
LaMar Baker (R) 52.8%
Howard Sompayrac (D)
UTAH
1
Gunn McKny (D) 51.1%
Joe Fergusen (R)
Robert Wolthuls (R)
T.. S. Brown (Ind.)
TAB B
(Page 4)
CANDIDATES IN MARGINAL RACES
(A) DISTRICTS WHIRE INCUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 52% OR LESS OF THE
VOTE IN 1970:
concressional
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
UTAH
2
Sherman Lloyd (R) 52.4%
Seeking 5th non-consecutive
term.
Mark Anderson (R)
Wayne Owens (D)
William Henderson (D)
Joseph Stump (D)
Bruce Bangerter (Ind)
WASH.
4
Mike McCormack (D) 52.9%
Stewart Bledsoe (R)
Floyd Paxton (R)
WISC.
9
Glenn Davis (R) 52%
Verne Read (R)
Robert Baggs (R)
Ralph Fine (D)
WYO.
1.
Teno Roncalio (D) 50.3%
Seeking 2nd consecutive
term--narrowly lost to
Senator Hansen in 1966
William Kidd (R)
Stockbroker
(B) DISTRICTS WHERE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 53%-55% OF
THE VOTE IN 1970:
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
CALIF.
6
William Mailliard (R) 53.1%
Roger Boas (D)
Member, City & County
Board of Supervisors
CONN.
2
Robert Steele (R) 53.6%
Roger Hilsman (D)
Former State Dept. Asst.
Secretary
Basil Paquet (Ind)
4
Stewart McKinney (R) 55.7%
James McLoughlin (D)
TAB B
(page 5)
(E) DISTRICTS WHERE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 53%-55% OF
THE VOTE IN 1970:
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
FLORIDA
13
J. Herbert Burke (R) 54.2% Incumbent old 10th Dist.
James Stephanis (D)
IOWA
4
John Kyl (R) 54.6%
Neal Smith (D) 64.9%
Incumbent old 5th Dist.
KANSAS
3
Larry Winn (R) 53.6%
Charles Barsotti (D)
Warren Redding (Con.)
N.JER.
6
Edwin Forsythe (R) 54.4%
Francis Brennan (D)
B.S. Doganiero (Soc.Lab.)
C.E. St. Martin (Ind)
Ida Ebert (Ind/Con)
N.MEX.
I
Manuel Lujan (R) 55.7%
Eugene Gallegos (D)
Attorney
N.YORK
6
Lester Wolff (D/Lib) 54.5%
Incumbent old 3rd Dist.
John Gallagher (R/Con)
State Representative
38
Jack Kemp (R/Con) 54.3%
Incumbent old 34th Dist
Anthony LaRusso (D/Lib)
PENN.
19
George Goodling (R) 53.9%
Richard Noll (D)
Paul H. Lesse (Con)
S.CAR.
2
Floyd Spence (R) 53.5%
No Democratic Candidate
VIRGINIA
10
Joel Broyhill (R) 54.4%
Seeking 11th Consecutive
term.
Harold Miller (D)
Fairfax County Supervisor
WISC.
3
Vernon Thomson (R) 55.4%
Peter Berg (R)
Walter Thoresen (D)
Edmund Nix (D)
Raymond Short (D)
TAB B
(Page 6)
(C) DISTRICTS WHERE DEMOCRATIC INSUMBENT NOW RUNNING RECEIVED 53%-55% or
THE VOTE IN 1970.
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICT
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
ALASKA
1
Nick Begich (D) 53.9%
Seeking second term
Don Young (R)
State Senator
CALIF.
34
Richard lianna (D) 53.0%
John Ratterree (R)
Businessman
Lee Rayburn (AIP)
Electronic Technician
COLO.
4
Wayne Aspinal (D) 55%
Seeking 13th Term
Alan Merson (1)
Prof. Univ. of Denver
Dal Berg (R)
James Johnson (R)
CONN.
5
John Monagan (D) 53.7%
Seeking 8th Term
Ronald Sarasin (R)
State Representative
Asst. Minority Leader
ILLINOIS
22
George Shipley (D) 54.1%
Incumbent old 23rd Dist.
Robert Lamkin (R)
Cleo Duzan (Ind)
MASS.
3
Harold Donohue (D) 54.2%
Incumbent old 4th Dist.
No Republican Candidate
MINN.
7
Bob Bergland (DFL) 54.2%
Jon 0. Haaven (R)
State Representative
N.YORK
14
John Rooney (D) 53.9%
Francis Voyticky (R)
Allard Lowenstein (LIB)
Incumbent Congressman
defeated in primary on
(D) ticket
Mary Carmen Ballesteros
Attorney
(Con)
TAB C
DISTRICTS WHERE NO INCUMBENT IS RUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
ARIZ.
4 (NEW)
Bill Baker (R)
Former Maricopa County
GOP Chairman
John Conlan (R)
State Senator
Ernest Garfield (R)
State Treasurer
Robert Reveles (D)
Jack E. Brown (D)
Phoenix Attorney
Curtis Nordwall (D)
Chippewa Indian
Rev. James Brockman (D)
Sam Grossman (D)
Phoenix shopping center
owner; defeated by Sen.
Fannin (R) in 19.70
CALIF.
8
Fortney Stark (D)
Bank Executive; defeated
incumbent in primary.
Lew Warden (R)
Attorney
11 (NEW)
Charles Chase (R.)
Attorney
Leo Ryan (D)
State Representative
Nicholas Kudrovzeff (AIP)
Electrician
20
Carlos Moorehead (R)
State Representative
John Binkley (D)
Executive Administrator
36 (NEW)
William Ketchum (R)
State Representative
Timothy Lemucchi (D)
Attorney
William Armour (AIP)
Equipment Rental
37 (NEW)
Gregg Tria (R)
Business Administrator
Yvonne Brathwaite (D)
State Representative
John Hagg (PFP)
Organizer
38 (NEW)
Howard Snider (R)
Mayor of Ontario
George Brown, Jr. (D)
Former U.S. Representative
39
Andrew Hinshaw (R)
Orange County Assessor;
Defeated incumbent in
Primary
John Black (D)
Attorney
42 (NEW)
Clair Burgener (R)
State Senator
Bob Lowe (D)
American Gov't. Teacher
Armin Moths (AIP)
Building Contractor
TAB C
(Page 2)
DISTRICTS WHERE NO INCUMBENT IS RUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
COLO.
5 (NEW)
William Armstrong (R)
State Senator; Radio
Station President
Byron Johnson (D)
Former U.S. Congressman
George Stapleton (D)
FLORIDA
5 (NEW)
Jack Insco (R)
Chuck Rainey (R)
Pinellas County Committee
Chairman
Jack Martin (R)
Mike Snyder (R)
Advertising Executive
Bill Gunter (D)
State Senator
Miller Newton (D)
Administrator-University
of South Florida
10 (NEW)
L.A. Bafalis (R)
Former State Senator
Paul J. Myers (R)
Former Mayor of Ft. Myers
Burton Thornal (D)
Bruce J. Scott (D)
Lee Sounty Commissioner
Bill Sikes (D)
John A. Darlson (D)
13 (NEW)
Paul Bethel (R)
Ralph Milone, Jr. (R)
Marvin Mondres (R)
George Balmer (D)
Johnson Davis (D)
Jay Kislak (D)
Real Estate Broker
William Leham (D)
Former Chairman, Dade
County School Board
Betty Page (D)
Lee Weissenborn (D)
State Senator
Louis Wolfson (D)
State Representative
GEORGIA
I
Ronald Ginn (D)
Defeated incumbent Ellictt
Hagen in runoff election
8/29/72
William Gowan (R)
5
Andrew Young (D)
Rodney Cook (R)
State Representative
IDAHO
1 (Incum-
Steven Symms (R)
Sunny Slope Fruit Farmer
bent run-
Ed Williams (D)
Former coach, teacher,
ning for
Legislator and aide
Senate)
to Gov. Cecil Andrus
TAB C
(Page 4)
DISTRICTS WHERE NO INCUMBENT IS RUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
MASS.
5 (Previous
Paul Cronin (R)
Former Mass. Rep.
GOP incumbent George Macheras
appointed to Armand Morisette (R)
UN.
Ellen Sampson (R)
Glen Cooper (D)
John Desmond (D)
Anthony DiFruscia (D)
Helen Droney (D)
Frederick Finnegan (D)
Robert Kennedy (D)
John Kerry (D)
Leader-Vietnam Veterans
against the War
Daniel Kiley (D)
Paul Sheehy (D)
Richard Williams (D)
Roger Durkin (Ind)
1.2 (Former
William G. Weeks (R)
Former State SEnator
GOP incum-
Gerry E. Studds (D)
Defeated by COP incumbent
bent retir-
in 1970
ing)
MICHIGAN
18 (NEW)
Robert Huber (R)
Heads Mich. Con. Party
Daniel Cooper (D)
19
William S. Broomfield (R)
Incumbent old 18th Dist;
defeated 19th Dist.
incumbent in primary.
George Montgomery (D)
MISSISSIPPI
2
Carl Butler (R)
Political Sci. Professor
David Bowen (D)
Former Miss. Federal-
(01d 1st dist. Democrat
State Coordinator
incumbent retiring-un-
opposed in 1970)
4
Thad Cochran (R)
Attorney
Ellis Bodron (D)
State Senator
(01d 3rd Dist. Demo. in-
cumbent retiring-won in
1970 with 63% of the vote.)
TAB C
(Page 5)
DISTRICTS VIIII NO INCUMBENT IS RUNNING I: 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
MISSISSIPPI
5
Trent Lott (R)
Adm. Asst. to U.S. Rep.
Wm. Colmer
Ben Stone (D)
State Senator
(Incumbent Colmer (D)
retiring-won in 1970 with
90% of the vote.)
MISSOURI
6
Russ Sloan (R)
Head Coach at Northeast
Missouri State College
Jerry Litton (D)
7
Gene Taylor (R)
GOP Nat 1. Committeeman
William Thomas (D)
N. JERSEY
12
Matthew Rinaldo (R)
State Senator
Jerry English (D)
Attorney
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won in 1970 with 66.2%
of the vote.)
13
Joseph Maraziti (R)
State Senator
Helen S. Meyner (D)
Wife of former Governor
Robert Meyner
Samuel (Golub (Ind/Con)
(Incumbent Dem. retiring
win in 1970 with 73% of
the vote.)
N. YORK
3 (NEW)
Angelo Roncallo (R)
Nassau County Controller
Carter Bales (D)
Lawrence P. Russo (Con)
Business Consultant
Leo James (Lib)
Sales Mgr. for distillery
31
Donald Mitchell (R/Con)
State Representative
Robert Castle (D)
Businessman
John Buckley (Lib)
State Rep.
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won 65.8% of the vote in
1970.)
33
William Walsh (R/Con)
Former Mayor of Svracuse
Clarence Kadyn (i)
Hardware Store Owner
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won in 1970 with 59.5%)
TAB C
(Page 6)
DISTRICTS WHERE NO INCUMBENT IS RUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
NO. CAR.
4
Ike Andrews (D)
Jack Hawke (R)
(Demo. incumbent in
Senate race)
7
Charles Rose (D)
Jerry Scott (R)
Alvis Ballard (Amer)
(Demo. incumbent retiring-
won 72% of: vote in 1970)
9
James Martin (R)
James Beatty (D)
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won 66.6% of vote in 1970.)
OHIO
4
Tennyson Guyer (R)
Dimitri Nicholas (D)
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won 64.4% of vote in 1970.)
16
Ralph Regula (R)
Virgil Muser (D)
(Cop incumbent retiring-
won 56.2% of 1970 vote.)
OKLAHOMA
1
James Hewgley (R)
Oil dealer-former Tulsa
Mayor
Robert S. Rizley
Attorney
(Runoff)
James Jones (D)
Attorney businessman
(1970-55.8%-Cong. Belcher,
R, retiring.)
2
Clem McSpadden (D)
State Senator
Emery Toliver (R)
Retired Army captain
(1970-70.6%, Edmondson
[D] running for Senate)
PENNSYLVANIA
9 (NEW)
E. G. Shuster (R)
Earl P. Collins (D)
TAB C
(Page 7)
DISTRICTS VEHICLE NO INCUMBENT IS PUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
so. DAK.
2
James Abdnor (R)
Pat McKeever (D)
(Demo. incumbent in Senate
race-won 52.3% of 1970 vote.)
TEXAS
2
Charles 0. Brightwell (R)
Lumber Salesman
Charles Wilson (D)
State Senator
(Demo. incumbent retiring-
won-ran w/o GOP opposition.)
18 (NEW)
Barbara Jordan (D)
State Senator
Raul Merritt (R)
24 (NEW)
Dale Milford (D)
Courtney Roberts (R)
VIRGINIA
4
Robert Gibson (D)
State Representative
Robert Daniel (R)
Planter
Robert Hardy (Ind)
John Vontes (Ind)
(Demo incumbent retiring-
won in 1970 with 61.2%)
6
M. Caldwell Butler (R)
Former State Rep.
Willis Anderson (D)
Attorney
Roy R. White (Ind)
(GOP incumbent retiring-
won in 1970 with 74.5%)
ε
Stanford Parris (R)
Va. Legislator; Former
Fairfax Supervisor
Robert Horan (D)
Fairfax Commonwealth Attorney
William Durland (Ind)
Robert Harris (Ind)
David Webb (Ind)
WASHINGTON
1
C. Y. Chaing (R)
Joel Pritchard (R)
Former State Senator
John Hempelmann (D)
Atty; Former Sen. Jackson Adde
Carl Bolman (D)
Perennial Candidate
TAB C
(Page 8)
DISTRICTS WHERE NO INCURRENT IS RUNNING IN 1972
CONGRESSIONAL
STATE
DISTRICTS
CANDIDATES
COMMENTS
WISCONSIN
8
Harold Froehlich (R)
State Representative
James Long
Outagamie Cty. Dist. Attorney
Myron Lotto
State Senator
Altce Dodge (R)
An Indian
Rev. Frederick Kile (R)
Jon LeDuc (D)
Rev. Robert Cornell
Ran against Cong Byrnes
(1970-55.5%, incumbent
in 1970
Byrnes [R] retiring)
TAB IV
PARTY LEVER STATES
ALABAMA
PENNSYLVANIA
ARIZONA
SOUTH CAROLINA
CONNECTICUT
SOUTH DAKOTA
GEORGIA
TENNESSEE
HAWAII
TEXAS
IDAHO
UTAH
ILLINOIS
VERMONT
INDIANA
WEST VIRGINIA
IOWA
WISCONSIN
KENTUCKY
WYOMING
LOUISIANA
MAINE
MASSACHUSETTS
MICHIGAN
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
MONTANA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW MEXICO
NORTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA