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This file contains:
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/20/1971
Overview of the political status of Louisiana. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/14/1971
Overview of the political status of Wyoming. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/19/1971
Overview of the political status of Florida. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/15/1971
Overview of the political status of Iowa. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/16/1971
Overview of the political status of Colorado. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/18/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/8/1971
Overview of the political status of Connecticut. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached political information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/2/1971
Overview of the political status of California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents relating to the 1972 election. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/1/1971
Overview of the political status of Missouri. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/27/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: information from Ed DeBolt of the Republican National Committee on politics in most U.S. states. 48 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: RN's recognition of key state chairmen. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/2/1971
From Dent to Mitchell RE: the possibility of using Louie Donaldson as state chairmen of Tennessee. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/6/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 6/29/1971
From L.E. Tommy Thomas RE: Phyliss Schafley's political role in Florida. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/9/1971
From Thomas C. Reed to Dent RE: RN's political status in California. Polling information attached. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 7/6/1971
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: attached information provided by Tom Davis. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Report], 6/10/1971
Overview of the political status of Delaware. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], no date
Overview of the political status of Georgia. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: attached information provided by Tom Davis. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/10/1971
Overview of the political status of Delaware. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Overview of the political status of Georgia. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/27/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/22/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: political information on Florida. List of key dates in the Presidential Preference Primary in that state attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/22/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached political documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Letter], 7/13/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: the possibility of McCloskey's name appearing on the Florida ballot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/14/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/7/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: women in the Republican Party. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information from Rumsfeld on various states. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/3/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: an attached document discussing McCloskey's visit to Florida. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/26/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached political information on New Jersey and Maryland. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/25/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/21/1971
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: attached information to follow up on a previous conversation. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/17/1971
From Cheney to Rumsfeld RE: Birch Bayh's finances. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 5/17/1971
Fromn Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Bill Graham's potential as a fundraiser. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1971
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Illinois politics. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1971
From Rumsfeld to Dent RE: Chicago Mayor Daley's recent political opponent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/15/1971
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26145878
label
WHSF: Contested, 23-6
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145878
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 23-6
description
This file contains:
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/20/1971
Overview of the political status of Louisiana. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/14/1971
Overview of the political status of Wyoming. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/19/1971
Overview of the political status of Florida. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/15/1971
Overview of the political status of Iowa. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/16/1971
Overview of the political status of Colorado. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/18/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/8/1971
Overview of the political status of Connecticut. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached political information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/2/1971
Overview of the political status of California. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents relating to the 1972 election. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/1/1971
Overview of the political status of Missouri. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/27/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: information from Ed DeBolt of the Republican National Committee on politics in most U.S. states. 48 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/1/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: RN's recognition of key state chairmen. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/2/1971
From Dent to Mitchell RE: the possibility of using Louie Donaldson as state chairmen of Tennessee. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/6/1971
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 6/29/1971
From L.E. Tommy Thomas RE: Phyliss Schafley's political role in Florida. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached documents. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/9/1971
From Thomas C. Reed to Dent RE: RN's political status in California. Polling information attached. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 7/6/1971
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: attached information provided by Tom Davis. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Report], 6/10/1971
Overview of the political status of Delaware. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], no date
Overview of the political status of Georgia. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE: attached information provided by Tom Davis. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/10/1971
Overview of the political status of Delaware. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Overview of the political status of Georgia. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/27/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/22/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: political information on Florida. List of key dates in the Presidential Preference Primary in that state attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/22/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached political documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Letter], 7/13/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: the possibility of McCloskey's name appearing on the Florida ballot. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/14/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/7/1971
From unknown to Mitchell RE: women in the Republican Party. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/14/1971
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information from Rumsfeld on various states. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 7/3/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: an attached document discussing McCloskey's visit to Florida. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/26/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached political information on New Jersey and Maryland. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/25/1971
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/21/1971
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: attached information to follow up on a previous conversation. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/17/1971
From Cheney to Rumsfeld RE: Birch Bayh's finances. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 5/17/1971
Fromn Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Bill Graham's potential as a fundraiser. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1971
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Illinois politics. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1971
From Rumsfeld to Dent RE: Chicago Mayor Daley's recent political opponent. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/15/1971
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/20/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
documents. 1 pg.
23
6
7/14/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Louisiana.
2 pgs.
23
6
7/19/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Wyoming.
1 pg.
23
6
7/15/1971
Campaign
Photograph
Overview of the political status of Florida. 1
pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 1 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/16/1971
Campaign
Photograph
Overview of the political status of Iowa. 2
pgs.
23
6
7/18/1971
Campaign
Photograph
Overview of the political status of Colorado.
1 pg.
23
6
7/8/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
documents. 1 pg.
23
6
7/1/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of
Connecticut. 2 pgs.
23
6
7/2/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
political information. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 2 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/1/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of California.
1 pg.
23
6
7/1/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
documents relating to the 1972 election. 1 pg.
23
6
6/27/1971
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Missouri.
2 pgs.
23
6
7/1/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: information
from Ed DeBolt of the Republican National
Committee on politics in most U.S. states. 48
pgs.
23
6
7/2/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE:
RN's recognition of key state chairmen. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 3 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/6/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Dent to Mitchell RE: the possibility of
using Louie Donaldson as state chairmen of
Tennessee. 1 pg.
23
6
6/29/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
documents. 1 pg.
23
6
Campaign
Memo
From L.E. Tommy Thomas RE: Phyliss
Schafley's political role in Florida. 1 pg.
23
6
7/9/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Dent to Haldeman RE: attached
documents. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. 1 pg.
23
6
7/6/1971
Campaign
Letter
From Thomas C. Reed to Dent RE: RN's
political status in California. Polling
information attached. 5 pgs.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 4 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
6/14/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses
from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg.
23
6
6/10/1971
White House Staff
Report
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE:
attached information provided by Tom
Davis. 1 pg.
23
6
Campaign
Photograph
Overview of the political status of Delaware.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs.
23
6
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Georgia.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs.
23
6
6/14/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: analyses
from Davis on Delaware and Georgia. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 5 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
6/10/1971
Campaign
Other Document
From Dent to Mitchell and Haldeman RE:
attached information provided by Tom
Davis. 1 pg.
23
6
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Delaware.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs.
23
6
Campaign
Other Document
Overview of the political status of Georgia.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 3 pgs.
23
6
7/27/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: political
information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg.
23
6
7/22/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached
information. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 6 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/22/1971
Campaign
Memo
From unknown to Mitchell RE: political
information on Florida. List of key dates in
the Presidential Preference Primary in that
state attached. 2 pgs.
23
6
7/13/1971
White House Staff
Letter
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached
political documents. 1 pg.
23
6
7/14/1971
Campaign
Memo
From unknown to Mitchell RE: the
possibility of McCloskey's name appearing
on the Florida ballot. 1 pg.
23
6
7/7/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached
information. 1 pg.
23
6
6/14/1971
Campaign
Memo
From unknown to Mitchell RE: women in the
Republican Party. 2 pgs.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 7 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
7/3/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information
from Rumsfeld on various states. 2 pgs.
23
6
6/26/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: an attached
document discussing McCloskey's visit to
Florida. 2 pgs.
23
6
6/25/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached
political information on New Jersey and
Maryland. 10 pgs.
23
6
5/21/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: attached
information. 1 pg.
23
6
5/17/1971
White House Staff
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: attached
information to follow up on a previous
conversation. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 8 of 9
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
23
6
5/17/1971
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Cheney to Rumsfeld RE: Birch Bayh's
finances. 1 pg.
23
6
5/18/1971
Campaign
Memo
Fromn Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Bill
Graham's potential as a fundraiser. 1 pg.
23
6
5/18/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Mitchell RE: Illinois
politics. 1 pg.
23
6
4/15/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Rumsfeld to Dent RE: Chicago Mayor
Daley's recent political opponent. 1 pg.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Page 9 of 9
CONF IDENTIAL
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: July 20, 1971
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT Idso
Please handle
For your information
TO PE AN
By sweets bute.,9-17-82 6-102
Ep WANTING
LOUISIANA: JULY 14TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
257,535
Humphrey: 309,615
Wallace:
530,300
Presidential Prospects:
If the election were held today George Wallace would probably win
in Louisiana. The President has probably gained some ground since
1968, but the current busing controversy is hurting us badly. The
Administration's position on the war is no problem in Louisiana and
the economic situation is not too damaging. Nevertheless, there is
a feeling among many Republicans that they have been betrayed by the
Administration. Wallace is expected to capitalize on this.
Governorship:
The Governor's race will be held in February with the first primary
slated for November. The Republican nominee will probably be David
Treen. The Democratic field is crowded and includes former Governor
Jimmy Davis, former Congressman Gillis Long, and present Congressman
Ed Edwards and Speedy Long. A scandal has marred the present Democratic
Administration and should help the Republicans. Even so, this election will
be uphill. Republicans have carried the state twice in Presidential elec-
tions ( 1956 and 1964 ) but have made few inroads at the state level.
Senate:
Senator Ellender is up for re-election and could be challenged in a primary
by Governor John McKeithen. Tom Stagg, our National Committeeman, is
weighing this race as well but there is little chance of our winning this seat.
Congressional:
Substantial redistricting is called for with the 1970 census. Considerable
changes are necessary. The incumbent most likely to be adversely affect-
ed is Hale Boggs. Beggs had a very close race in 1968 and the legislature
gerrymandered him into a 1 safe , seat for 1970. Demographic shifts now
threaten to pull his district into approximately the 1968 boundary.
Page 2
Comments:
Although indications are that we are running behind, there is also
evidence that Wallace has slipped, too. The Governor's race might
be a good indicator of how strong Republicanism is in the state.
The state party structure is weak and will not be a great help to the
President. Registration statewide, according to the party Chairman,
is 50 to 1 Democratic.
WYOMING, JULY 19TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
70,927
Humphrey: 45,173
Wallace: 11,105
Presidential Prospects:
Although Wyoming is considered a conservative state, this does not
guarantee the President's success in 1972. There is a large indepen-
dent group and many hard-liners feel the President has gotten a little
too liberal. He generally gets a so-so rating, . The economy looms as
the biggest problem and it looks as if today, the winner would be the
President by a slim margin.
Senate:
Senator Hansen is looking good and although his appeal to youth is little,
he retains a solid footing among the wool, stock and oil people. Some
oil people have been critical of the President but it is felt Hansen pre-
vents hostility. No real problems are expected for the Senator, but
state people feel that Hansen alone can't represent a strong enough slate
for the President.
House:
Democratic Congressman Teno Roncalio could be difficult to beat. State
people feel that the key next year will be the youth vote. If a Republican
candidate could be found who is young, appealing, etc., we could take the
seat and construct a slate strong enough to help insure the President's
success. So far, however, such a man has not been found.
Comments:
The party organization looks good, well organized and has good rapport
with Governor Hathaway. Money problems begin at about this time, so
fund raising will be getting under way shortly. The Governor is a good
fund raiser, too, and the whole organization should be effectively shored-
up by Spring.
FLORIDA, JULY 15TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
886, 804
Humphrey: 676, 794
Wallace: 624,207
Presidential Prospects:
If the election were held today the President would carry Florida,
according to our people. Wallace retains much of his popularity,
especially in the northern part of the state.
The President is felt to have picked up support since 1 68 among
Cubans and in the Miami area in general. However, the rest of the
state is not overly enthusiastic with welfare reform and the busing
controversy ensuing in neighboring states. Republicans like the
Vice President and Governor Reagan are also regarded as popular
in the state.
The economy is not too bad here. Unemployment around the Space
Center is being aided by the Disney boom in Orlando.
House Redistricting:
There are no statewide races other than the Presidency in 72. How-
ever, Florida gains three House seats with the new census. As Dem-
ocrats control the legislature and the governor's mansion the new dis-
tricting will probably be drawn to our maximum disadvantage.
Since two of the three seats will go to Republican Central Florida, there
is a good chance we can pick up one of them. Also, incumbent Democrat
James A. Haley may be hurt by redistricting. He has had close races
the past two elections.
The three seats we now hold are not representative of Republican strength
in the state. We should gain one to three seats in 1972.
Comments:
The State Republican organization is recovering from the fratracide of
1970. A campaign war chest is being solicited through a series of fund
raisers this next year.
The party organization is also becoming better organized and should be an
asset to the President for the I 72 campaign.
T
IOWA, JULY 16TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
619,106
Humphrey: 476,699
Wallace:
66, 422
Presidential Prospects:
The President has slipped slightly in Iowa since 1968, but is seen
in no danger of losing the state today. The economic situation hurt
us somewhat and the farmers, though economically as well off as ever,
feel that they have been neglected. However, the President's announce-
ment about going to China should help us quite a bit, the State Chairman
believes. He thinks that fellow Hawkeyes see the President dealing with
I bigger stakes 1 than the economy or the farm problem, and this should
be politically beneficial.
Governorship:
This is where the real problem lies in Iowa. GOP Governor Robert Ray
was re-elected narrowly in 1970 while Democrats were winning new
Governorships in neighboring states. ( Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota,
and Wisconsin.) Ray faces a serious challenge for his third term in the
primary from Lt. Governor Roger Jepsen. The primary threatens to
split the party wide open as well as drain financial resources that would
otherwise be used in the general election. Jepsen is more conservative
than Ray and feels that it is 1 his 1 turn to be Governor after two terms in
second spot. The Democrats are likely to field an attractive candidate who
will be able to pick up the pieces in November. This could be a drag on
the whole state-wide ticket.
Senate:
The Senate race is already shaping up into a battle between Congressman
John Culver and Republican Senator Jack Miller. Our people feel that
Culver will be tough. He is attractive, a good campaigner and should get
plenty of money. However, Senator Miller has been back in the state fre-
quently and rates the edge today. Even so, with the race potentially close
any drag from our Gubernatorial candiate is a source of concern.
Page 2
Iowa
House:
Iowa lost one seat in redistricting. The legislature reapportioned
earlier in the year. Three Republican seats appear safe - Mayne,
Gross and Scherle. Congressman Schwengel's district will continue
to be marginal. The State Chairman believes we can win Culver's
vacant seat with a strong candidate. Also, two incumbents were
thrown together, Democrat Neal Smith and Republican John Kyle. The
new district seems to favor Smith, and Kyle is known to be upset about
the new boundaries.
Comments:
The party organization seems to be in good shape at present. However,
a bitter Gubernatorial primary could factionate the state party and hurt
the overall organization effort.
The party people feel that a White House effort could possibly straighten
out the Gubernatorial struggle. This would have to be done cautiously
but could prove effective.
COLORADO, JULY 18TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
409,345
Humphrey: 335,174
Wallace:
60,813
Presidential Prospects:
The President is in fairly good shape in Colorado. A poll was
just completed for the State Committee and shows 55% approval
for the President and 37% disapproval. The President is hurt
with the war issue, in the Denver area, according to the poll.
The economic situation, though not particularly bad in Colorado,
seems to hurt us too. 78% believe unemployment is a serious
national problem at this time, and only 38% see the economy grow-
ing, at present.
Crime, the economy and drug abuse are the main concerns of Colorado
residents with the country.
Senate Race:
Senator Gordon Allott is seen ahead today in his race for a fourth term.
It is felt that the Senator can beat any of the Democrats most often men-
tioned to oppose him. Polls bear this out. Democratic Congressman
Frank Evans of Pueblo is seen as one possible candidate against the
Senator, but polls show him trailing Allott by two to one.
House Race:
Colorado gained one House seat with Congressional reapportionment.
The present line-up is two Democrats and two Republicans. Since we
control the Governorship and both Houses of the legislature we stand to
get the new seat and possibly one other seat. The current plan is to throw
both Democratic Congressmen- Aspinall and Evans- into the same district
making way for two additional Republican districts. There is talk of stren-
gthening freshman Congressman Mike Mckevitt as well, by splitting up
the city of Denver.
Comments:
The party organization in Colorado is very strong and should be helpful
to the President.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: July 8, 1971
TO:
Bob Haldeman
FROM:
HARRY DENT A3D
Please handle
For your information
X
CONNECTICUT, JULY 1ST
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
556,721
Humphrey: 621, 561
Wallace:
76,650
Presidential Prospects:
The President has probably picked up some ground in this state
since 1968. There are three reasons for this. First we control
the Governor's mansion. Governor Meskill is considered quite
popular and his assistance will be a real asset in 1972. Secondly,
the party organization, bolstered by victories in 1970, is united
and spirited. Thirdly, National Committeeman, John Alsop feels
that a 1 kid lash 1 is developing among older citizens. The youth
vote appears to be so heavily against us that Alsop sees many
adults who opposed us in : 68 taking a second look at the President
and liking what they see.
On the minus side is the unemployment factor. The state Chairman
believes that today the economy issue would kill us, but if and when
the economy starts to visibly move upward, our chances for success
will be good.
The state's feelings on the war were well reflected in last month's
vote in the Assembly on a bill to exempt Connecticut citizens from
fighting foreign wars ( similar to one passed in Massachusetts. )
The bill was beaten by an overwhelming margin.
House of Representatives:
Republicans currently hold two of the state's six seats. In 1970, a change
of 3, 000 votes would have given us two more seats. Demographic shift-
ing in the state means reapportionment effecting all six districts. A
deadlock between the legislature and Governor could occur leaving it
up to the courts to decide on the new districts.
No basic change is expected in the new districts. However we should
be able to hold our two seats and mount a strong campaign against
Ella Grasso for Meskill's old seat if the right candidate can be found.
Connecticut
Page 2
Comments:
The party organization should be a strong asset to the President
in 1972. The support of Governor Meskill and his active interest
in the party organization should be utilized.
Gains at the Congressional level in 1972 will depend upon the Presiden-
tial race. Connecticut has a history of coat-tail election victories at
the Congressional level.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
July 2, 1971
TO:
H. R. Haldeman
FROM:
HARRY DENT
Please handle
For your information
CALIFORNIA, JULY 1 ST
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
3,467,664
Humphrey: 3,244,318
Wallace:
487,270
Presidential Prospects:
The President would have a difficult time carrying California today
if he had no opponent. However, when he is matched against some-
one he fares much better. The strongest Democratic ticket today
would probably be Muskie and Jackson. Kennedy and Humphrey are
viewed as much more vulnerable.
Unemployment is hurting us badly. We cannot afford to let Lockheed
fail. The state organization can be of little use to us for 1972 except
for voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts. A strong Nixon
committee should probably be organized to take over from the , Liver-
more Vacuum 1 ( Livermore is the State Chairman. ) The feeling seems
to be for the President not to enter the state's primary, but to let
Reagan run as a favorite son instead. It will save us a couple of million
dollars and avoid any kind of a bloodbath like the Democrats may have.
House of Representatives:
There are no statewide contests outside the Presidential race in 1972.
Therefore, both parties will put major efforts into capturing the five
new Congressional seats the state gained in reapportionment. Re-
districting is still several months away, but the feeling is that we will
get anywhere from two to four of the new seats. Incumbents are ex-
pected to be protected.
McClosky is rated highly vulnerable in a GOP primary. Names most
often mentioned to oppose the peace-nik Congressman are Assemblyman
Dixon Arnett or former GOP head Jim Halley. Today, either one could
win. However, if McClosky switches parties he would probably be un-
beatable.
Y
]
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: July 1, 1971
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT ASD
Please handle
For your information
MISSOURI POLITICAL PICTURE, JUNE 27TH, 1971
1968 Presidential Race:
Nixon:
811,932
( 44.9% )
Humphrey: 791,444
( 43.7% )
Wallace:
206,126
( 11.4% )
Presidential Outlook:
In the opinion of our people, the President is stronger in Missouri
today than in 1968. The war and the economy are not helping the
President particularly, but the overall mood of the state's voters
is one of patience and understanding about the problems we face.
Governor's Race:
Republican leaders are optimistic about the chances of electing the
first GOP Governor in 32 years in 1972. Incumbent Warren Hearnes
is very unpopular but is constitutionally ineligible for another term.
Lt. Governor Bill Morris will try to succeed Hearnes but he will face
tough opposition in the Democratic primary. Congressman Richard
Ichord, Chairman of the House Internal Securities Committee is thinking
of running. Other Democrats mentioned include State Senator Earl
Blackwell and Congressman James Symington, son of the Senator.
The Republican candidates most often mentioned are Les King, former
state House minority leader, 'Kit' Bond, the State Suditor who won by
200, 000 votes last November and Attorney General Jack Danforth. Danforth
would be the strongest candidate, but there is some question as to his meet-
ing the state residency requirement for Governors. Bond would be a strong
candidate.
House of Representatives:
The last redistricting done by the Democrats was such a 1 good' gerry-
mander that no one believes it can be any worse for us this time. Dem-
ocrats most likely to be hurt are Ichord and Symington, ( hence their
interest in the Governor's race. ) There is one plan that puts Democrats
Bolling and Randall in the same district as well, creating a potential
Republican seat. Another plan would put Representative William Clay into
a district with a white majority.
Whatever happens, we stand a decent chance to pick up a seat or two, es-
pecially with a strong state ticket. We now have one out of ten Congressmen.
Missouri
Page 2
Comments:
Party leaders in Missouri are feeling more confident today than at
anytime since the 1940's. In 1968, they came within 36, 871 votes of
electing a Senator. Last year, Senator Symington won a fourth term
by only 37, 528 votes. While his Democratic colleaques in neighboring
states won by large margins. Perhaps the efforts of 1968 and 1970 will
bear fruit in 1972.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 1, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. Haldeman
FROM:
Harry S. Dent USD
Attached is a political analysis of most of the states prepared
by the field men of the RNC.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBoit
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISIRATIVE KING
E.O. 120.3, Section 6-102
June 26, 1971
By
EP KARS, Date 3-12-82
ALASKA
Organization
Statewide, the Party organization performed poorly during
the 1970 elections. Two House districts did an "adequate" job
of Voter Identification and Voter Turnout. The State Chairman of
Alaska was a procrastinator, entirely ineffective in his leadership
and had little organizational knowledge. The new State Chairman
seems to be a good leader, his only experience in politics has been
candidate oriented rather than Party organization. The Party now
has a fulltime Executive Director who basn't the vaguest idea what
his job should be or how he should do it. He wants to give the
statewide organization the help it needs and will travel extensively
to re-implement the "Mission '70's" program. With the new State
Chairman and new District Chairman using the "Mission '70's", the
Party could perform the traditional Party roles in the central
district, the south central district, and some portions of the
southeast district. They do have a plan to reach the "bush" villages
throughout the northwest district. At the present time the Party
is being financed by 200 Party members who have pledged $250.00
each. They are trying to redevelop a small donor sustaining program
and if this is successful they will be in fairly good financial
condition.
Major Elections
The incumbent Republican United States Senator, Ted Stevens,
will run for re-election in 1972. This election will put Ted on his
regular six year cycle. Senator Stevens should be re-elected, during
the 1970 election he was the only Republican candidate who drew a
majority vote out of the "bush". Additionally there will be the
Congressional and Legislative races.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
TO BE AN
ING
E.O.
6-102
By
EP
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
ARIZONA
Organization
The Arizona State Central Committee has a new Executive
Director who is the former Executive Director of Maricopa County.
He is strong on Party development and organizational work, Party
development will be his number one priority for the next year.
He is an enthusiastic supporter of "Mission '70's" and tried to
sell the Victory Squad concept for Voter Turnout in Maricopa County
for the 1970 elections. Maricopa County, while doing a good job
in Voter Identification and Registration, did a poor job on Voter
Turnout because they didn't accept the controls of the Victory Squad
program. Yuma County also has hired an Executive Director. The
Arizona Party organization will produce on Voter Identification,
Registration, Special Ballots, Voter Turnout, and Ballot Security.
All registrations have been cancelled in Arizona this year and
both Parties have to start "from scratch" to register their members
to vote. Maricopa County is presently conducting a registration
program of all known Republicans and prior to the municipal elections
in November, will have a concentrated Voter Identification and
Voter Registration program. The financial condition of Arizona is
sound and presently in the black. All indications are that they
will go into the 1972 year with a considerable surplus and will be
able to adequately finance their Legislative Campaign Committee and
other Party programs.
Major Elections
Statewide municipal elections will be held during November of
this year. The only major city that has partisan municipal elections
is Tuscon. The Republican Party has at least five Republican
candidates running for Mayor and there is a good chance of a rift
developing during the primary that won't be healed in time for the
general election. Although the city elections in Phoenix are non-
partisan, the present Mayor and the majority of the City Council,
who run as the "Charter Government", should be re-elected. During
1972, the only statewide elections will be the Tax and Corporation
Commissioners. As redistricting isn't completed congressional
elections are somewhat in doubt as Arizona will add one more
Congressman. The Maricopa County elections are going to be very close
for the Republicans during 1972. Incumbent Republican County
Commissioners have received a considerable amount of adverse publicity
that will result in a struggle to hold control of the Court House.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
TO
ADMIN"
MAN.
E.O.
Suction
By
EP
3-17-72
June 26, 1971
COLORADO
Organization
The Party leadership in Colorado is very good. The State
Chairman works on a near fulltime basis and has a fulltime Research
Director to assist him. The state Vice Chairwoman is new and
receptive to organizational ideas. They have recently completed
a workshop for new County Chairmen. The organization does a good
job in most counties and can be expected to perform Voter Identification,
Registration, and Voter Turnout. The state and county organizations
are not flush but are in a sound financial position. The state
organization generates approximately 75% of their gross revenue
from their "1200 Club" sustaining program and will be in a good
financial position for 1972.
Major Elections
The incumbent Republican United States Senator G. Allot, should
win re-election without much problem. As Colorado has not redistricted
and because they gain a Congressional seat, it is not possible to
name the players in the Congressional races, however the Party
leadership feel certain that a Republican will be elected in the new
district as well as eliminating one of the incumbent Democrats.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
June 26, 1971
DETERMINED IO ES
ADMINISTRATIVE
HAWAII
E.O. 12016, Soction Date
3-17-82
if
NARS,
By
Organization
The Hawaii organization has been weak and ineffective for
many years. They are starting to improve due to the election
of Carla Coray as State Chairman, a good hard working organizational
politician, the unity of the Republicans in the state Legislature,
and the developing poor image of the Democrat Party. The Party
organization will be able to do the Voter Identification, Registration,
Voter Turnout, and Ballot Security programs effectively in Honolulu
County, with some effectiveness in, Hawaii and Kawaii County, while
Maui County will not produce. The Party organization plans extensive
organizational workshops during September. The number one objective
of the new State Chairman is to build the organizations ability to
produce. At the present time the Hawaii organization is in good
financial condition with the proceeds from Chairman Dole's dinner
during May. They plan to follow-up by implementing the statewide
small sustaining program. The former National Committeeman, Randolph
Crossley, has offered to pay the salary of an Executive Director for
one year.
Major Elections
The highlight campaign will be the Mayorality race. Most
Republicans feel that the only candidate that can possibly beat the
Democrat incumbent Mayor is Mary George, the only Republican member
of the present City Council. Additionally there will be the two
Congressional races and during 1970 Democrat incumbent Patsy Mink
had no opposition, Democrat incumbent Sparky Matsunaga had only
token opposition. There are at this time three good candidates
to oppose Mink and Matsunaga. State Senator Fred Rholfing plans to
oppose Matsunaga and State Legislator Diane Hansen will oppose
Mrs. Mink.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DePolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
KING
ADMIN,
6-102
E.O.
By Eff
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
IDAHO
Organization
Due to recent developments in the state of Idaho, I think
its impossible at this time to access Party strength and their
ability to produce during the 1972 elections. National Committeewoman
Gwen Barnett, who has resigned, played a predominant role in the
Party leadership especially with communications and Party organization
training. It is too early to tell if her resignation will have a
negative or positive effect. The financial situation of the Party
organization is critical at this point and they are trying to keep
their heads above water by a door to door canvass solicitation.
The Executive Director is spending his time and effort to raise the
month to month operating expenses. I forwarded a copy of the "1200
Club" manual to the state organization for their consideration.
Major Elections
The incumbent Republican, United States Senator Len Jordon,
will be up for re-election in 1972 and should carry the state
without any problem as should both of our incumbent Republican
Congressmen McClure and Hansen.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMIN
MARKING
E.O. 12005, bection 6-102
June 26, 1971
By
Ep
Date 3-12-82
MONTANA
Organization
The Party organization in Montana is able to produce in
several counties principally in the western district and has performed
poorly in other counties that should produce good Republican margins.
The Party has not had effective leadership on the state level for
the past WO years. Montana has a new State Chairman, William Holter
of Great Falls. Until I meet with Mr. Holter the week of July 12th,
I will not be able to make a good estimation of how the Party
organization will be, going into the 1972 election. Their Executive
Director is enthusiastic, sold on strong organization, and will try
to re-implement "Mission '70's". However, at this point he isn't
sure himself of what the new State Chairman expects of him or what
his priorities will be. The new State Chairman has given complete
financial control to the Finance Chairman who is not producing on
memberships in the sustaining clubs. They do have some money in
the bank to support their legislative candidates and are managing to
meet minimal operating costs.
Major Elections
Democrat United States Senator, John Metcalf is up for re-election
in 1972 and could be vulnerable if the Republican Party comes up with
the right candidate. At this time Bud Wallace, who ran against
Mansfield, wants to go at Metcalf but the best candidate appears to
be Attorney General Woodahl. In the congressional races Democrat
Melcher is going to be very difficult to beat in the eastern district
and I believe we are going to have a real fight to re-elect Dick Shoup
in the western district. I believe that the Democrat Governor,
Forrest Anderson is beatable. The principal Republican candidates are,
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Jim Lucas and former
Republican State Chairman, "Doc" Keller.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12005, Suction 6-102
By EP
Date
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
NEVADA
Organization
Although the state Party organization in Nevada is heavily
in debt, organizationally in shambles, and has ineffective leader-
ship at the state level, Clark County, the largest county of the
state has a new County Chairman whose first priority is to eliminate
the $20,000.00 debt of the county organization and improve and
change the Party image in Clark County. The Washoe County organization
has a good Chairman, is debt free and has some funds in reserve. I
believe that these two county organizations will be functioning
effectively for the 1972 campaign if the Clark County organization
gels in time. The state organization has a debt exceeding $28,000.00
($23,000.00 to one computing firm), does not have a state Finance
Chairman and have not responded to suggested programs to eliminate
this debt. I mentioned in an earlier report, the Presidential
campaign should have a Co-Chairman for the state of Nevada.
Major Elections
The United States Congressman Walter Bearing, will probably
have only token opposition in the 1972 Congressional race. At this
time there are no Republicans who indicate a desire to run against
Mr. Bible. Nevada will redistrict to single member legislative
districts. Because of the lack of a viable candidate for the
Congressional race, the Party organization will probably concentrate
on the Legislative and Presidential races.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
June 26, 1971
ADMI.
ERKING
E.O. 120.3, Section 6-102
NEW MEXICO
By
of
Date 3-17-82
Organization
The Party performed poorly during 1970. They didn't produce
on Voter Identification, Voter Registration, Special Ballots,
Voter Turnout, or Ballot Security except in isolated cases. It
is doubtful if the Party organization will perform adequately for
the 1972 elections. The present State Chairman Bob Davidson, has
asked to be replaced by August 1st and the Executive Director will
resign also effective August lst. With a new State Chairman the
organization could improve prior to 1972. At this point it is
likely that an Alburqueque attorney, Tom McKenna, will be the new
State Chairman. Mr. McKenna is a former Supreme Court Justice
who lost his bid for re-election in 1970. The state organization
is at least $6000.00 in debt including $3800.00 owed to the
National Finance Committee from the 1970 Agnew dinner. The state
Party is able to meet their payroll and operating expenses for the
month of June and the number one priority for the Executive Director
is to raise enough money to pay these costs for the month of July.
The new Executive Directors primary responsibility will be to
raise enough money to cover his salary and office operating costs.
The state Party organization has planned eight regional dinners
during the fall of 1971 and is counting on these dinners to gross
$60,000.00. However, these dinners are dependant on the National
Chairman speaking in Alburqueque, and additional Senators or outside
speakers. Also scheduled is a Legislative Campaign Committee
cocktail party to be held in January 1972, which should net $10,000.00.
It appears that the only way New Mexico is going to get out of the
financial problems is for the new State Chairman to replace the
Finance Chairman George McKenna.
Major Elections
Incumbent Democrat Senator Clinton Anderson, isn't expected
to seek re-election and many believe he will retire during his present
term to allow the Democrat Governor to appoint someone to fill in
the last year and run as an incumbent. It appears we will have the
same problem in the New Mexico Senate race as we had in the Governors
race in 1970, where we had eight candidates seeking the nomination
for Governor. At the present time there appears to be six potential
candidates including Bob Davidson the present State Chairman, 1970
senatorial candidate Andy Carter, State Senator Bill Seagle, State
Senator Junio Lopez, former Lieutenant Governor Lee Francis, former
Governor Dave Cargo, and a slight chance of Pete Domenici. Manuel
Lujan shouldn't have any problem being re-elected to his First District
Congressional seat and the strongest candidate the Republicans had
in the Second District was Steve Helbing who has moved to Oklahoma,
it appears that former Congressman Ed Forman wouldn't have a chance
to be re-elected if he does return to the state.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINIS ATIVE BLARKING
E.O. 12063, Section 6-102
By
EP
MARS, Date 3-17-82
June 26, 1971
OREGON
Organization
Republican Party of Oregon is going through a transition
from a "caretaker" leadership to a State Chairman that is aggressive
and determined to build a Party organization that can effectively
produce on a statewide basis. The primary problem in the Party
organization is the control of 12 counties by the John Birch Society
members. The state organization is trying to isolate these people
and re-gain moderate control of the county organizations. The State
Chairman is a past Legislator and understands organizational politics.
The Executive Director is very capable and will be able to do a good
job of Party development prior to April when he plans to resign to
run for the State Legislature. The present financial condition of
the Party organization is tight but stable. They are in the black
with a substantial amount of proceeds from Chairman Doles appearance.
The long range condition looks good. They have hired a local fund
raiser who is engaged in running a statewide mail solicitation
program.
Major Elections
Incumbent Republican U. S. Senator Mark Hatfield is up for
re-election and will be opposed in the primary. The Party organization
will concentrate their efforts on the State Senate and House races.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
June 26, 1971
ADMINIS
.....KING
E.O. 120 3, Suction 6-102
UTAH
By Ep
NARS,
Date
3-17-82
Organization
Indications are that the Utah Party organization could
function better during the 1972 campaign than they did in 1970.
The organization performed very well in Salt Lake and some of
the other counties and very poorly in the second and third largest
counties in the state. These counties had poor county chairmen
and while the State Chairman was a nice guy, he was unable to get
the organization functioning properly. The new State Chairman,
Kent Shearer, is a good organizational politician. However, Mr.
Shearer could have problems and become ineffective due to excessive
aloholic consumption. Although the Utah Party has no significant
financial reserves, they are in a fairly stable condition with regard
to current bills and operating costs. The National Committeeman
Ken Garff, has provided most of the state organizations operating
expenses with a $100.00 sustaining program. Additionally they
conduct the yearly Legislative Ball and Neighbor to Neighbor drive.
They do have a good sustaining program for small donors.
Major Elections
Utah will have statewide non-partisan municipal elections in
1971 and will have a gubernatorial, Secretary of State, Attorney General,
Treasurer, and Auditor elections in 1972. There is a probability
that the Democrat Governor will run for re-election although Utah has
never elected a Governor for three terms. The two term incumbent
Calvin Rampton, will probably be re-elected if he runs. The Utah
Republicans do not have a candidate who is emerging to be a strong
contender. Most, who were possibles, are drawing back as Rampton
sounds out a third term. It is entirely possible that Utah will
carry heavy for the President and for the Democrat Governor as they
did in 1968.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
FROM:
Charles Bailey
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
EP
NARS,
Date
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
WASHINGTON
Organization
The Washington Party organization has good leadership with
the State Chairman, National Committeeman and National Committeewoman.
Washington has had very good organizational programs similar to
"Mission '70's" and excellent candidate training programs. They
will implement "Mission '70's" this year. The state organization
and three of the largest county organizations have been badly split,
dissipating the effectiveness of the Party. There is more unity
at this point than there has been in several years and the Party
organization will probably function effectively for the 1972 elections.
While the financial condition is tight, they have developed and are
implementing a good sustaining fund program for small and large donors.
If this program produces what it should, Washington should be in very
sound financial condition going into 1972.
Major Elections
The top election in the state of Washington will be the
gubernatorial race. Republican incumbent Dan Evans, will probably
run for re-election. He should be re-elected depending on the role
Democrat United States Senator Jackson plays on the National scene.
The Party organization is going all out to maintain the majority in
the House of Representatives and the Legislature will concentrate on
getting the majority in the State Senate. They are organizing a
Legislative Campaign Committee which cannot be rated at this time.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE
MKING
FROM:
Charles Bailey
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
EP
NARS, Date
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
WYOMING
Organization
The Wyoming Party organization is very strong in most of
the north and east counties, is organizationally weak in the south
counties of the state. Wyoming has a new State Chairman and a new
Executive Director who are of unknown quality at this time. However,
I will be meeting with the State Chairman and Executive Director
during the week of July 12th and will be able to make an estimation
of their ability to produce for the 1972 election. To my knowledge,
the Wyoming state organization is financially in the black and have
good small contributor programs.
Major Elections
The incumbent Republican United States Senator, Cliff Hansen,
will run for re-election in 1972. The Senator shouldn't have any
trouble being re-elected. With a good strong race from him, good
strong effort on the Party organization, a good candidate, we should
be able to beat the incumbent Democrat Congressman, T. Roncalio in
the Congressional race. Wyoming is unique in the western states in
that there are more registered Republicans than Democrats.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
up
NARS, Date 3-17-82
epublican
June 29, 1971
tional
ommittee.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman
FROM:
A. J. Miller, Jr.
SUBJECT:
Illinois
I.
Political
a)
Presidential. In the opinion of state Republican leaders, President
Nixon would not receive more than 45% of the vote against the strongest
candidate considered to date due principally to the economy, i.e., unemploy-
ment, farm attitude and Viet Nam. Assuming improvement in the economy,
farm income, and an end to the Viet Nam War, the President is given an even
chance to win.
b)
State GOP Leadership. Victor Smith, Chairman. The state Republican
leadership is inclined to be influenced by candidate-oriented leaders,
particularly those leaders close to Governor Ogilvie. Therefore, the party
organization is not an entity in itself and as a result is ineffective,
lacking capability to perform in areas of voter identification, voter regis-
tration, and get-out-the-vote. There is no visible evidence of any sub-
stantial change in the future.
c)
Financial condition of state Republican organization: Present income
is adequate to meet current operating expenditures which have been reduced
since 1970 election. The staff has been reduced from 24 to 8 members. Present
United Fund-raising organization is ineffective. Plans are being developed
to improve fund-raising capability and to increase the level of political
activity. The party has no appreciable debt.
II.
Major election contests in 1971-1972
No contests in 1971.
U. S. Senate: Charles Percy is in a strongthened position and believed by
Republican leaders to be unbeatable against the possible candidates emerging
to date, such as Lt. Governor Paul Simon and Daniel Walker (Stevenson
Campaign Manager)
U. S. House of Representatives: 12 (R) - 12 (D). 1972 elections not likely
to result in any change as two southern district are only slightly improved
for GOP reapportionment and produced no significant change in GOP strength.
Governor Richard Ogilvic's position for reelection has recently improved and
judged approximately equal to that of President Nixon. Possible candidates to
oppose Ogilvie include Lt. Governor Paul Simon if he decides against challeng-
ing Percy; Tom Foran, former Federal Attorney who was involved in the Chicago
Seven trial and has Mayor Daley's support; former State Auditor Michael Howlett;
and Daniel Walker, former Campaign Manager for Senator Stevenson. Ogilvic is
expected to win over these possible opponents.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINES
lepublican
RKING
E.O. 120.5, 2001.00 6-102
June 29, 1971
By Ev
lational
,
wate 3-17-82
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed Debolt - Deputy Chairman
ommittee.
FROM:
A. J. Miller, Jr.
SUBJECT:
Iowa
I.
Political
a) Presidential: Assuming current conditions and the Presidents
popularity, Republican leaders give President Nixon a narrow margin
win over all opponents suggested to date: Nixon's vote expects to be
appreciably improved with an improved economy and an end to the Viet Nam
War.
b) State Republican Leadership: Under the direction of volunteer
chairman John C. McDonald, an attorney, the organization maintains
a fairly high level of activity, is united, and is. effectively managed
with considerable capability. There is a permanent staff of five persons
with four to six field men added during the canpaign. McDonald; vice-
chairman, Mrs. Gleen Pardun; National Committeewousn, Mrs. Elmer Smith;
and Executive assistant, Steve Robinson are responsible for policy and
major decisions- with Robinson and staff performing headquarters
responsibilities.
c) Financial: Organization is without debt, however current income
is at 100 of normal fund raising. Fund raising is expected to improve
with accelerated fund-raising activities and increased interest in
1972 election possibilities.
II.
Major election contests
State Republican leaders anticipate US Senator Jack Miller will win
over visible potential candidates however by a close margin. Front
running Democratic potential candidate is 2nd Congressman John Culver
who is supported by the Kennedy - clan.
Congressional
5 (R) 2 (D) will lose 1 seat in 1971 due to reapportionment. 3 Republican
seats considered safe: Gross, Mayal, and Shirley. Kyle will run against
Neil Smith. Schwingle's opponent is unknown both seats are marginal.
Reapportionment will likely result in loss of one or two additional
seats.
Governor
As it appears new Governor Robert Ray will be opposed in the primary by
Lt. Gov. Roger Jepson - Ray has gained strength with conservative fiscal
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed Debolt -- Deputy Chairman
Page 2
proposals. While Jepson appears less conservative, Republican leaders
fear a bitter primary will leave the Republicans divided providing for
for a possible Democratic victory in November. The Democratic possible
candidates are former state legislator William Conner and Paul
Franzenburg- attractive former state treasurer. Robert Ray has frequently
supported the administrations programs.
State Legislature
Senate: R-38 D-12
House:
R-63
D-37
GOP strength to remain approximately the same. The effect of reapport-
ionment was insignificant.
DETERMINED TO BE AN
CONFIDENTIAL
ADMINIS
KING
E.O. 120.5,
6-102
By if
3-17-82
Republican
June 29, 1971
lational
Committee.
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman
FROM:
A. J. Miller, Jr.
SUBJECT:
Kansas
I.
Political
a) State Republican leaders, assuming current conditions do not worsen,
believe President Nixon would win over all Democrat candidates presently
being considered, with a margin of upward of 5%. Nixon has broad-based
support on Viet Nam with diminishing support of farmers.
b) State Republican leadership. Because of the division in the party which
prevails due to the procedure for selecting their state chairman, volunteer
Chairman William Falstad has been unable to produce unity and provide effective
leadership. Meaningful activity is close to non-existent.
c) Financial. Present cash flow barely sufficient to meet operating expenses
of a minimum staff organization. Capacity of the state organization is not
expected to improve significantly until State Chairman or the Executive Committee
assume complete responsibility for management of the party organization. An
approximate debt of $30,000 is not considered serious, providing the struggle
for leadership is eliminated.
II.
Major election contests for 1971 and 1972
No major election contests for 1971.
U. S. Senator James B. Pearson will stand for reelection in 1972. Pearson's
reelection possibilities have been considerably strengthened with weekend
appearances in Kansas, continuing since November of 1970. Probable Democrat
opponents include Governor Docking; Dale Saffels, Chairman of State Corpora-
tion Commission (Docking appointment); Harold Herd, Minority Leader of State
Senate and a liberal; and there is recent talk that Congressman Ray may oppose
Pearson. At this time, Republican state leaders give Pearson 6 to 7% margin
of election over any opposition candidates mentioned.
Congressional.
1st Distrist
Keith Sebelius (R) fairly safe
2nd District
William R. Ray (D) marginal
3rd District
Larry Winn
(R) marginal
4th District
Garner Shriver (R) fairly safe except for
unemployment in Wichita
5th District
Joe Skubity
(R) safe
There is a possible Republican candidate in 3rd District in State Senator
Ed Riley. Reappo C tionment will have little effect on election results with
change in only 8 counties.
!T
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman
Page 2
Governor Docking is evaluating his chances against Pearson or seeking an
unprecedented 4th term. Inside reports indicate Docking's private surveys
place him short against Pearson. The state is on a cash basis, so as
Governor he would be compelled to reverse his major position and raise taxes,
which leads GOP to believe Docking beatable.
Possible Republican candidates are Lt. Governor Reynolds Shulty (unannounced
but running) ; and Bob Wells, member of Federal Communications Commission; and
Tom Van Sickle, State Senator and candidate for Attorney General in 1970.
State Legislature.
Senate
32 (R) - 8 (D)
House
84 (R) - 41 (D)
It is anticipated that the Republican margin in both houses will remain unchanged.
Reapportionment will have little effect upon 1972 election.
CONFIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMIRISTRATORYS
EKING
E.O. 120. Section 6-102
By
EP
Maro,
Date
3-17-82
epublican
June 29, 1971
tional
ommittee.
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman
FROM:
A. J. Miller, Jr.
SUBJECT:
Minnesota
I.
Political
a) State Republican leaders believe that President Nixon would receive
45 to 47% vote against Muskie or Kennedy and a 40% vote against Humphrey.
This assumes current conditions and a reduction of Nixon's margin in 1968
of 1.5%. Unemployment, general economy, Viet Nam, farm attitude is reflected
in this evaluation. Senators Humphrey and Mondale have contributed to an
erosion of Republican support among Republican industrialists and business-
men and professionals which cause leaders to give the President up to 50%
vote, providing economy, war, and farm attitudes are favorable and Humphrey
is not the candidate.
b) Republican state leadership. Under Chairman George Thiss the party
maintained a high level of activity and broadened the base of people in-
volvement. Recently elected Chairman Dave Krogseng will bring new ideas
and new emphasis and priorities which should result in a somewhat firmer
Republican profile and an improved unity and capability.
c) The state is relatively free of debt. However, current cash flow
is below levels projected. The new Chairman will likely reorganize the
fund-raising organization and increase their efforts. The staff organi-
zation has been drastically reduced; however, additional functions will
be re-established in the near future.
II.
Major election contests
U. S. Senate: Mondale is exceptionally strong, to the extent that recruiting
a Republican candidate is difficult. Possible GOP candidates include
Douglas Head, 1970 candidate for Governor.
Congre sional: 4 (R) - 4 (D)
Four Congressional seats are believed relatively safe,--Quie, Zwach, Nelson
and Frenzel. Zwach and Frenzel's districts were improved as a result of
redistricting. While Quie's district was slightly dimminished, the possibility
of winning the 7th district, lost in 1970, appears good with the interest
of two attractive and articulate possible candidates, State Senator William
Doesland from Moorhead and Jon Haaven, Executive with Alexandria TV - Radio.
Both have name identity. Former Congressman Odin Langen is reported to be
considering the possibility of challenging Don Berglund to regain the 7th
district Congressional seat he lost in 1970. The possibility of Langen's
candidacy is not welcomed by some Republican state leaders.
CONRIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed Debolt
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
FROM :
E. Allen Parker
ADMIN:
epublican
By
E.O. EP 12003, Suction MARKING 6-102
FIELD REPORT
Date 3-17-82
ational
ommittee.
New England Region
June 28, 1971
E. Allen Parker
CONNECTICUT
SUBJECT: 1. POLITICAL SITUATION
2. MAJOR 1972 RACES
1. Politcal Situation:
a. CLIMATE: The climate for Republicans in Connecticut has been
improved considerably with the election of Governor Meskill and
Senator Weicker, and there is every evidence that this has generated
increased support for the President. Additionally, some party
leaders report that the President's programs have gained him
gradually increasing support in the state.
Based on current trends, it is not inconccivable that the President
could carry the state in 1972. If so, there could be a bonus of at
least two congressional seats and the control of the state Senate.
b. PARTY LEADERSHIP: State Representative Brian Gaffney recently
took over as State Chairman, and Lewis (Chip) Andrews was named
Executive Director. B oth worked in Governor Meskill's campaign,
and their appointment to the party posts indicate an active interest
on the part of the Governor in the party organization. This should
ensure the kind of recognition and rewards for party workers that
keeps an organization viable. Coupled with the fact that Connecticut
will have no statewide races, other than the President's, in 1972,
this should ensure a near optimum effort by the party organization in
the President's campaign.
C. PARTY FINANCES: Connecticut is in relatively good shape
financially and plans a full schedule of party training and organization
activities after the legislature adjourns.
2. Major 1972 Races:
Connecticut has no statewide races in 1972, other than the President.
There will be a considerable party effort in some of the congressional
races, but I do not as yet have information on target districts or
prospective candidates.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
E. Allen Parker
DETERMINED TO BE AN
tepublican
ADMINIS
KING
lational
E.O.
120.
So
6-102
FIELD REPORT
By - EP
Date
3-17-82
Committee.
New England Region
June 28, 1971
E. Allen Parker
MAINE
Subject: 1. Political Situation
2. Major 1972 Races.
1. Political Situation.
(a) CLIMATE - The current political climate is not favorable
to the President, primarily because of Senator Muskie's pro-
spective candidacy. However, the state chairman and many other
party leaders believe that the President has not lost any of
the support he received in 1968 (43 8%) and his support may
even increase as the war winds down and the economy improves.
If Senator Muskie does not become the Democrat candidate, it is
quite possible that the President could carry the state.
Barring a substantial win in the state by the President,
the Republican prospects are not good for gaining additional
seats in congress or the state legislature in 1972.
(b) PARTY LEADERSHIP - The Maine organization is well led by
a new, young and aggresive chairman. He is beefing up the
state committee staff with a full-time Executive Director,
Research Assistant and one or more field men. Emphasis will be
on strengthening the organization at the county and town levels
through encouragement and assistance from the state committee.
The organization can be expected to become increasingly
more effective and be fully capable of taking full responsibility
for the President's 1972 campaign in the state.
(c) PARTY FINANCES - Maine is one of the two New England states
where the party is in the black. The new state chairman is
pointing toward a substantially larger budget for 1971 and 1972,
however, it is believed that they will be able to raise it.
1 hey have a full-time Finance Director.
2. Major 1972 Races.
The only statewide race in 1972 will be for the U.S. Senate,
Senator Margaret Smith's seat. It is presumed that she will run
for reolection and will be opposed in the primary by a Portland
oil man by the name of Monks. Monks moved to Maine from Massachu-
setts about two years ago with the stated intention of running
for Senator Smith's seat.
Democrat Congressman Hathaway (2nd district) has announced
that he will run for the seat and is not expected to have any
CONFIDENTIAL
FIELD REPORT - MAINE
- 2 -
June 28, 1971
Under those circumstances, there would probably be several
more candidates on both sides.
In any event, the second congressional district seat
will be up for grabs and probably represents the best oppor-
tunity that Maine Republicans will have in 1972.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
E. Allen Parker
DEVERRUTED TO BE AN
KING
FIELD REPORT
ADMI
epublican
E.U. 120 Section 3-17-82 6-102
ational
New England Region
By
EP
ommittee.
June 28, 1971
E. Allen Parker
MASSACHUSETTS
Subject:
1. Political Situation
2. Major 1972 Races
1. Political Situation
a) CLIMATE - Massachusetts voters are less party-oriented than any
of the other New England states so that the political climate may be
good for one Republican and bad for another. With respect to the
President, it is bad but Senator Brooke should have no trouble.
Prospects for increasing Republican representation in Congress or the
State Legislature are not bright. As a matter of fact, the congress-
ional redistricting plan being drafted by the Democrat legislature will
reportly creat problems for every incumbent Republican congressmen
except Keith. This from H.R. Minoxity Leader Linsky.
The new Republican State Chairman, Herb Waite, has announced and
is implementing, a program to build the President's image in Massachusetts,
on the basis of his accomplishments and legislative proposals. Although
this is receiving something less than enthusiastic support from some of the
more liberal party people, a majority of the State Central Constitue
members appear to be supporting the program. Given enough amunition
and good news (the war and economy) to work with, this project could
raise the President's suppo. in the state significantly. Although
it is doubtful that it could be enough for his to carry the state, it
might be of considerable help to congressional and state legislative
candidates.
b) PARTY LEADERSHIP - The party is well led by chairman Herb Waite and
there is considerable experience throughout the state committee. The
biggest problem has been ideological division, most often evidenced by
refusal to support certain candidates. If Chairman Waite is able to
generate an active and visible program of support for the President, in
which all state committee members participate, he may get a lot of the
differences subcrdinated by 1972.
c) PARTY FINANCES - The party just held a reasonably successful fund-
raising dinner but will have to raise something on the brder of $250,000
more just to keep the machinery running through 1971 and 1972. However,
the Massachusetts organization will be the biggest beneficiary of the
projected closed-circuit TV dinners in November 1971 which, together
with their other fundraising activities, should raise what they need.
CONFIDENTIAL
MASSACHUSETTS
-2-
June 28, 1971
2. Major 1972 Races
The only statewide race in 1972 will be for the U.S. Senate,
Senator Brooke's seat. To date there has been little speculation
as to who the Democratic candidate might be and no indication of any
primary opposition to Senator Brooke.
1
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
E. Allen Parker
TO BE AN
Republican
6-102
E.U.
3-17-82
lational
FIELD REPORT By
EP
Committee.
New England Region
June 28, 1971
E. llen Parker
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Subject: 1. Political Situation
2. Major 1972 Races
1. Political Situation.
(a) CLIMATE - The current political climate in New Hampshire
is favorable to the President and Republican candidates generally,
and should remain SO into the 1972 campaigns. The Governor is in
some trouble over the state fiscal situation and proposed tax re-
forms; however, it is not believed that this will hurt the Repu-
blican image particularly, as the issue has been rather definitely
identified as the Governor's. There could be an effect on all of
the 1972 campaigns, however, if the Governor should run for a
third term and win the nomination. the party is sharply divided
into pro-Peterson and anti-Foterson camps with the anti's having
the edge. Fortunately the Democrats are also badly divided--and
over the same issue.
(b) PARTY LEADERSHIP - The New Hampshire party leadership has
suffered somewhat in that the current chairman is not in a posi-
tion to devote as much time to it as his predecessor and the head-
quarters staff has been reduced due to financial problems. However,
it can be expected that the situation will improve when funds be-
come available for increased party activity. there is considerable
experience and leadership ability in the organization that will
undoubtedly come to the fore as we get nearer to the 1972 campaign.
(c) PARTY FINANCES - The party's financial condition is marginal.
Neither the Sustaining Member drive or the recent $50 dinner were
particularly successful and will probably do no more than erase
the current indebtedness. As a result party activities will pro-
bably continue at a relatively low level until 1972.
2. Major 1972 Races.
New Hampshire will have two statewide races in 1972--Governor
and U.S. Senator (the McIntyre seat). Primary races can be expect-
ed in both parties for the gubernatorial nomination and the American
Independent party will probably nominate a candidate without a
primary. Former Governor Wesley Powell has stated that he will run
for the U.S. Senate and it is possible that the American Independent
party will put up a candidate also. It isn't clear at this point
whether Powell will have any Republican primary opposition or not.
Congressman Cleveland or Wyman have been urged by some people to
run but I doubt that either of them would do so-unless the President
requested it.
CONFIDENTIAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE
- 2 -
June 28, 1971
Among the possible Republican candidates for Governor
are: Governor Peterson, John Palazzi--former -- state chair-
man, Marshall Cobleigh--Speaker of the House, Hugh Gregg--
former Governor 1952-1954, Robert Hill -- -Ambassador to Spain.
11
MEMORANDUM TO: Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
E. Allen Parker
DETERMINED TO BS AN
ADMINISTRATIVE
epublican
MAKING
E.O. 12065, S 6-102
ational
FIELD REPORT
By
EP
3-17-82
ommittee.
New England Region
June 28, 1971
E. Allen Parker
RHODE ISLAND
Subject: 1. Political Situation
2. Major 1972 Races
1. Political Situation
(a) CLIMATE - Although the current climate, with respect to the
President, is not favorable this situation could improve considera-
bly by the 1972 election date. First of all a general improvement
in the President's image is evident as the war issue fades. Second-
ly a recent poll shows that Chafee is running way aboad of Pell in
a trial heat for Pell's Senate seat. Also DeSimone is ahead of
Licht in a trial heat poll for Governor. These despite the fact
that Chafee and DeSimone have been outspoken in their support of
the President.
It is not expected of course that the President will carry
Rhode Island. However, an increase of 8 - 10% in his vote could
be of great help in some of the legislative races.
(b) PARTY IEADERSHIP - As titular head of the party, by virtue of
being the 1970 candidate for Governor, DeSimone is taking a very
active interest in the party's organization and activities. The
new state chairman, Tucker Wright, worked in DeSimone's campaign
and SO they have a good working relationship. Beyond that, the
party has a considerable amount of experience and leadership ability
in the state committee membership, which will surface in active
roles as the 1972 campaigns approach.
(c) PARTY FINANCES - The Rhode Island organization is adoquately
financed, although their latest fundraising dinner produced con-
siderably less than was hoped for. However, this only means that
a second fundraiser of some kind will be necessary this fall.
Rhode Island has never experienced any particular difficulty in
raising the funds necessary to meet their budget.
2. Major 1972 Races.
Rhode Island's 1972 campaign vill include a gubernatorial
race and a campaign for Senator Pell's seat.
Herb DeSimone who ran against Licht in 1970, is expected to be
the Republican condidate for Governor and John Chafee is expected
to run against Poll.
Although Governor Licht will probably run for a 3rd term, he
micht
be
CONFIDENTIAL
RHODE ISLAND
- 2 -
June 28, 1971
Garrahy has been at some pains to try and disaccociate himself
from some of the Governor's programs, particularly his tax
proposal.
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM:
E. Allen Parker
DETERMINE
I RE AN
ADMIN
DUG
epublican
FIELD REPORT
E.O. 100
0-102
3-12-82
ational
By EP
New England Region
ommittee.
June 28, 1971
E. Allen Parker
VERMONT
Subject: 1. Political Situation
2. Major 1972 Races
1. Political Situation
(a) CLIMATE - The political climate in Vermont is favorable to the
President, and Republicans generally, and should remain so through the
1972 compaign. The large Republican majorities for Governor Davis, and
Senator Prouty, served to strengthen the Republican majority in the state-
and concurrently demoralize the Democrat organization.
(b) PARTY LEADERSHIP - The party in Vermont is well led by Chairman
Russ Merriman and law is backed up by a very experienced state committee.
It is rumored that Merriman may step down soon, to take a job in the
President's campaign organization. However, there are a number of people
who could do a good job as chairman. Former State Senator Reihl has
been mentioned as Governor Davis's choice to succeed Merriman.
(c) PARTY FINANCES - The Vernont organization is rather deoply in
debt ($50,000) and as a contequence party activity has been curtailed
quite a bit. The Finance chairman, R. P.O Seward, feels that they will
get back on their feet financially but probably not before their annual
fundraising dinner this fall.
2.
Major 1972 Races
The only statewide race in 1972 will be for Governor and it is
expected that there will be a primary fight for the Republican nom-
ination. Governor Davis is not expected to run for reelection but
neither is he expected to let that be known before next year.
State Secretary of Administration (and former Speaker of the House)
Dick Mallory is a likely candidate to succeed Davis and would probably
have the support of Davis and most of the party regulars. However,
Lt. Gov. Burgess and Speaker of the House David Kennedy would both like
the job and one or both of them may run against Mallory. Also, Tom
Hayes or Dick Snelling, who ran against each other in the 1966 primary,
might try again, if )the circumstances looked favorable for winning the
primary.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMANED TO BE AN
ADMI
EKING
on 6-102
By EP
3-17-82
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
Arkansas
- 6 electoral votes
- 1968 - Wallace
- 1964 - Johnson
The party organization in the state is widely split. On one side
is Scate Chairman Charles Bernard, who is desperately trying to
strengthen the county and precinct structure to keep the support of
the County Chairman who elected him in November, 1970. He is quietly
replacing weak County Chairman and is promoting County activity.
The other faction in the state centers around former Governor
Winthrop Rockefeller, the National Committeeman. Rockefeller formally
financed the Republican Organization and virtually built the state
party around himself. After his defeat and the split with Bernard,
Rockefeller cut off the funds to State Headquarters and built a staff
around his post of National Committeeman.
A successful fund-raising dinner in June by Bernard, featuring
Chairman Dola, was a successful attempt to test his organization's
strength and to raise funds for operating costs.
The Presidential campaign effort must utilize the resources of
both factions. One possibility would be to appoint a strong, mutually
acceptable head of the Citizens Committee to co-ordinate the strength
of both sides.
1972 - Senator John L McClellan's term expires
1972 - Covernor Bumpers' term expires
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO EE AN
ADMINISTRATE
LANDS
E.O. 10000, 6-102
By
ED
NAR
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed Debolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
Indiana
- 13 electoral votes
- 1938 - Nixon
- 1964 - Johnson
There exists a wide split in the state organization resulting from
Governor Whitcoub openly trying to replace John Snyder, State Chairman
since 1970. Keith Bulen, the National Committeeman, and County Chairman
of Marion County (Indianapolis) is a powerful force in the state and is cur-
rently working with Snyder for seemingly practical reasons.
The basis of the split was an agreement between Whitcomb and Snyder
to back each other for Governor and Senator respectively. When Whitcomb
became Governor, he chose to back Roudebush, believing he would be a
winning candidate. nostility increased when Roudebush was defeated.
The Governor has cut off a 2% state employees fund from state
headqua. E and is not helping to support fund-raising efforts by the
state hosequarters in an effort to oust Snyder. The Governor has agreed
to pay the party debt, but will not finance state headquarters' operating
expenses.
Snyder needs help if he is going to survive. He is strongly
organizationally oriented and has and will continue to devote full time
to structure building. To do this he needs assistance in Patronage since
State patronage has
: cut off by the Governor and federal patronage
not been coming Enrough. He also needs assistance in promoting, and
getting prominent speakers for fund-raising events.
Presidential Primary -- May 2
1972 - Governor's Race - Edgar Whitcomb cannot succeed himself
CONSIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE LAMING
E.O. 120.5, Servion 3-17-82 6-102
By EP
NARS, Date
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Resso - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING: Kentucky
- 9 electoral votes
- 1968 - Nixon
- 1964 - Johnson
State Chairman John Kerr (April 1968) and Executive Director Gordon
Wade are an extremely qualified team and are making great gains in a
state where Republicans are out-registered 2 to 1. The Governor has been
able to help build the state party structure through the use of patronage
and appears DO be in complete co-operation with the state chairman.
The state organization seems to be relatively sound financially.
An Somet visit this summer is expected to enhance their stable treasury.
Practically all political activity is centered around the Governor's
and Legislative races in 1971. Since Governor Nunn can not succeed
Mimself, he is strongly backing Emberton.
Posty organization has realistically evaluated what they can
accomplish in the coming year and has decided to limit the scope of
their operation to vital areas of (a) voter registration, and (b)
training of Republican poll workers and watchers.
II they are successful, they will elect Emberton and set the
stage for the Presidential campaign.
- 1972 - John Sherman Cooper's seat will expire. He
is not expected to seek re-dlection. Governor
Nunn will probably decide to run, pending the
outcome of the Emberton race.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMIN
TARKING
E.O. Ind seron 6-102
By EP
3-17-82
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
Michigan
- 21 electoral votes
- 1968 - Humphrey
- 1964 - Johnson
The State Chairman, Bill McLaughlin (Feb. 1968) and his Executive,
Jerry Roe work excremely well together and give the state able leadership.
The State handquarters is youth oriented and has made great gains cuuside
the proditional YR-CR, TAX approach.
hide would like to start the Nixon Campaign as scon as possible.
10 bildeved much can be done if the "right" people get started soon
enough. Sunde the Republican Senator (Griffin) is popular with the
State party workers and is also up for reelection in 1972, McLaughlin
believes the best people will be drawn into the Senate race, if the
Insurantial Campaign does not start soon.
Due = a substantial debt and being an off year, state project.
are limited. However, there is empht is on county fund-raising events
and state-wide leadership siminars.
To a large degree the State Chairman believes he is isolated from
Washington (White House and R.N.C.) and has to be shown that someone
is incorested to the degree of actually giving help rather than just
offering it.
1972 - Senator Robert Griffin will seck reelection
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIA
DETERMINED
TO BC AN
ADMI
CHKING
epublican
E.O. i
0-102
By
&
ational
ommittee.
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
Mississippi
- 7 electoral votes
- 1968 - Wallace
-- 1964 -- Goldwater
State Chairman Clarke Reed, elected February 1966, is one of the
strongest and most capable party leaders in the South. He has
considerable obstacles in the state and almost all elected officials
are Democrats. Reed believes the only way to build the party in
Mississippi is to concentrate on filling county and city offices in
an effort to develop a base.
Much of the state-wide activity is centered around attracting
good candidates and preparing them for the Republican ticket.
The state party appears to be sound financially and an Agnew
appearance in May helped substantially. Reed has an effective,
working organization including a three man field force.
Democratic Governor Williams can not succeed himself in 1971.
Since declaring his candidacy, black Democrat Charles Evers has
made a contest out of the Primary race to be held in August. The
present Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Charles Sullivan is going
to make a bid for the nomination and may support Nixon in '72 if
he is elected with Republican support.
1971 - Governor John Bell Williams I term expires
1972 - Senator James O. Eastland's term expires
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDEN
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINT MARKING 6-102
E.O.
3-17-82
By Ef
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
Ohio
- 25 electoral votes
- 1968 - Nixon (26)
State Chairman, John Andrews, elected April 1965 has been weakened
by the defeat of former Governor Rhodes in a bitterly fought Republican
primary race for the Senate nomination. Taft, the ultimate winner had
publically announced intentions to take over party 1: rehip, but his
elforts were turned back by Andrews' strong supporters. There has been
mention of Ray Dliss replacing Andrews but is unlikely since Bliss is
actively helping indrews in fund-raising efforts.
Andrews still maintains the support of former Governor Rhodes who
still has considerable control, although he has retired to private
busin
The breakdown of the states financial organization during the
1970 elections has left Andrews with a substantial debt. The debt
plus the loss of the Governor's seat has left Andrews with considevable
problems.
Several fund-raising appearances by Chairman Dole, plus visits by
Senators Luckley and Tower in June have helped the Ohio Finance Committee
to reduce the debt.
Presidential Primary - May 2
On May 26, Senator Taft announced that he will be a
Favorite Son Candidate for President, standing in for President Nixon.
His candidacy will probably help the President, but many
in the state view his announcement as a move to replace Andrews.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 120.3, Section 6-102
By W Date-3-12-82
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo - East Central U.S.
CONCERNING: Tennessee
-- 10 electoral votes
- 1968 - Nixon
- 1964 - Johnson
Tennessee has been making great gains as a Republican state.
State Chairman, S.L. Kopold, elected February 1971, with the aid of
the Republican Senators and a Republican Governor is working hard
as the grass roots level. His executive director travels the state
extensively and is presently trying to attract the young voters into
the Republican Party.
All concerned appear to be working in the same direction and are
rapidly learning to use the office of the Governor to promote
Republican politics.
The state party has financial problems, but is working in many
directions to correct this situation.
Political activity in the state is limited because of an off
year,
: Senator Baker's popularity is helping to stimulate interest
in the '72 campaign.
1972 - Senator Howard Baker's term expires
Presidential Primary - May 4
CONFIDENT
CONFIDENTIAL
epublican
ational
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
ommittee.
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EP
NARS, Date 3-17-82
June 24, 1971
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY
TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Director
FROM:
Paul Russo -- East Central U.S.
CONCERNING:
West Virginia
- 6 electoral votes
- 1968 - Humphrey
- 1964 - Johnson
Tom Potter, State Chairman since June 1968, is facing a difficult
situation in a Democratic State with only 6 electoral votes. Finances
are a problem and political activity is limited.
Governor Arch Moore, elected in 1968, has been the only source of
Republican strength and will be a key person in the Presidential
Campaign. He has not yet decided if he will seek re-election in '72 or
make a bid for Randolph's Senate seat. The source of Moore's uncertainty
is John D. Rockefeller, presently Secretary of State, and a probable
Democratic candidate for Governor.
Moore's popularity is helping the Republican party as is the fact
that former Democratic Governor Barron was sentenced to 25 years in
a Federal Penitentiary for bribing a jury forman. In addition to the
Governor's conviction, 108 indictments came out of the Barron
Administration's four years in Charleston.
Presidential Primary - May 9
1972 - Senator Randolph's term expires
1972 - Governor Arch Moore's term expires
CONNDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
June 25, 1971
epublican
MARKING
E.O. 10000, Section 6-102
ational
By Emp
Date 3-17-82
,
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of Delaware
The Republican Party of Delaware has
been under the leadership of State Chairman, and Delaware
Secretary of State, Gene Bunting, for thirteen months.
The state organization has established a permanent head-
quarters in the city of Wilmington; this office is headed
by Pat Phalon, public relations man, while Mr. Bunting
is in Dover on state business. Delaware is in sound
financial shape for this year and has plans for some
fund raising for next year's campaigns. The Republican
National Committee has selected Delaware as the test site
for several experiments in voter response in preparation
for the 1972 Presidential campaign. The results of this
series of tests will be completed in the fall of this
year.
At the present time, the Delaware party
does not have a debt; the state committee, under Mr.
Bunting is however, planning a set of four dinner-dances
for this fall to raise funds for current expense and for
the 1972 races within the state. These events should not
conflict with the November 9th National Gala Dinner.
1971 Campaigns:
1972 Campaigns:
The scat of Governor Peterson will be
up for election in 1972. The Governor
is serving his first four-year term;
he is expected to run for re-election.
The seat of Senator J. Caleb Boggs will
be up for election also. Boggs may run
for re-election; if he does not, Cong.
duPont or Mayor Haskell are expected to
try.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONSIDENTIAL
DETERMINED
TO BE AN
epublican
ADMINIS
RKING
on
6-102
June 25, 1971
ational
E.O. 120cc,
Date
3-17-82
By EP
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of Florida
The Republican Party of Florida has
been under the leadership of State Chairman, L.E. (Tommy)
Thomas since January of this year. Mr. Thomas' first
move as State Chairman was to establish a permanent state
headquarters staffed with a competent cadre of workers
The state seems generally pleased with the President and
White House policy, yet some more prominent Republicans
are not sure about Welfare Reform. A recent straw vote
taken among Florida Republicans indicated that 7 out of
10 rate the President's effort at good to excellent.
Republican registration is up 55.2% compared with Demo-
crat registration of up 0.7%.
Financially, the Florida party has
just discovered its clout. Recently I attended a $100
dollar-a-plate dinner (Mr. Dent was the speaker) where
Torray Thomas had brought together the lobbists and prom-
inent Republicans to raise funds for next year's legisla-
tive races. The party is in sound financial shape now,
and with several dinners planned for the November 9th
Gala, the state should be in fine financial condition going
into 1972. More important, however, is the fact that the
Florida party is organizing its counties and state commit-
tees now in preparation for next year, as opposed to waiting
until the funds are in. Florida gains three Congressional
seats and Tommy is looking for candidates and Republican
Congressmen, in 1972.
1971 Campaigns:
1972 Campaigns:
No Senate, No Governor
Congressional & State elections
CONNDENTIAL
CONFIDENT
DETERMINED RE AN
ADMINIS
KING
E.O. 120.0,
6-102
epublican
By EP
3-17-82
June 25, 1971
ational
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of Maryland
The Republican Party of Maryland has
been under the leadership of State Chairman, Alexander
Lankler, since May of 1970. Mr. Lankler is presently
attempting to put the state organization back on its feet
following the 1970 unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign
of C. Stanley Blair. The Maryland State Oranization will
need some concentration on precinct and turnout work if
and when the financial problems are lessened. Communication
between the state headquarters and the counties is also an
area where time and effort ought to be spent following the
fund-raising schedule.
The State Committee still owes about
$ 40,000.00 on the campaign for governor last fall. Mr.
Lankler has secured the services of "Civic Services" how-
ever, to assist with Maryland fund-raising projects. The
first activity was very successful, which is the first
step and first good sign toward the solution of Maryland's
organizational problems. The State Committee will be
holding a fund-raising bull roast over the 4th of July
holidays. In the long-range scope of things, Maryland,
should be ready to concentrate on county level organization
and communication this November, following the National
Gala dinner.
"Sandy" Lankler has been selected as
chairman for the Northeast Regional Conference to be held
in Washington this fall.
1971 Campaigns:
1972 Campaigns:
Congressional, No Senate, No Governor
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERM TO PI AN
tepublican
ADMINT
June 25, 1971
0-102
ational
E.O. 120
By
EL
3-17-82
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of New Jersey
The Republican Party of New Jersey
has been under the leadership of State Chairman, John E.
Dimon since April of 1970. The New Jersey party will be
working this summer and fall toward the election of the
State Legislature this November. All one hundred and
thirty seats will be up for election; presently the GOP
holds control and is expected to retain that ratio due to
the fact that taxes were not raised. John Dimon plans to
hold with RNC assistance, a candidate school this fall
to train his new ticket of legislators and their staffs.
Governor Cahill maintains fairly good communications with
the state committee, however, he also relies heavily on
Secretary of State Paul Sherwin for political help.
The New Jersey party is financially
sound, with no debts at present. There will be no November
Gala dinner due to the fact that current campaigning with-
in the state will drain all available resources. On the
books is a Golden Done Dinner at $ 125.00 per plate this
July 17th and in October a $ 250.00 fund raising affair to
wrap up the Legislative campaign. Dimon has put the party
on its feet with the help of the Governor's office. The
Governor will campaign extensively this fall for the GOP
ticket.
1971 Campaigns:
130 State Legislature
1972 Campaigns:
Seat held by Senator Clifford Case,
Sen. Case is expected to run for re-
election
CONFIDENTIAL
NG
tepublican
E.O.
6-102
By EP
3-12-82
June 25, 1971
lational
committee.
REGIONAL REPRESINTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of New York
The Republican Party of New York has
been under the leadership of State Chairman, Charles T.
Lanigan, since June of 1969. New York State has one of the
finest, if not the finest, Republican organizations in
the country. The various elections and incumbency of Gov.
Nelson Rockefeller both prove and sustain this operation.
The organization has prospered due to the close relation-
ship between Lanigan and the Governor's office. The state
headquarters has enlisted a man full-time to develop the
Mission 70's program on a day-to-day basis. Thus far some
forty of the state's sixty-two counties have had a
thorough Mission 70's presentation with a state-developed
booklet and precinct kit. Lanigan and his Executive Director,
Charles Earns have organized a good county operation and
have even taken their influence to putting together a
viable youth effort. The New York State organization has
established itself well in its endeavors into all areas
of political organization,
The New York State Committee had a
debt of $ 900,000.00 resulting from last year's governor's
race. However, a sum of $ 750,000.00 was raised at the
New York City fund raiser recently, most of which went to..
ward that debt. The State Committee is financially sound,
and should have a very successful Gala Dinner this November.
There are no state-sponsored fund-raisers this summer or
fall, but the various counties are holding money raisers
for their local elctions this year.
1971 Elections:
1972 Elections:
No Senate, No Governor
Congressional
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDE
ADMIT
epublican
5.0.
6-102
June 25, 1971
ational
By
3-17-82
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of North Carolina
The Republican Party of North Carolina
has been under the leadership of State Chairman, James E.
Holshouser since March of 1966. Jim Holshouser intends
to step down soon, for several reasons: first, he is
considering running for Governor against Gov. Scott, also
as a State Legislator, he has a very busy schedule and feels
that he cannot devote the necessary time to the position,
finally, he would like to step down for a young man who
would have the time and energy for the job. Gov. Scott
has used his influence to campaign for Educund Muskie in
North Carolina and has already openly endorsed his candidacy.
The governor cannot for his seat again in 1972, thus
there will be several Republicans running for the position,
in addition to Holshouser's interest in the job, is the
interest of Congressman Broyhill.
The state organization has a financial
debt of $ 25,000.00 which Field Director, Steve Krouch, with
Holshouser's help will attempt to do away with this summer.
Plans call for a July fund-raiser with either Gov. Holton of
Virginia or Sen. Gurney of Florida speaking to a $ 100 Dollar
a-plate dinner. Long-range plans for North Carolina are
somewhat hazy, in that, with new leadership there is no way
of predicting the financial condition leading up to the 1972
campaign for President and Governor.
1971 Campaigns:
1972 Campaigns:
Seat held by Sen. B. Everett Jordan is up
for election; the Governor (Scott) cannot
succeed himself thus the seat is up for
election.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINKE
RKING
tepublican
6-102
June 25, 1971
E.O.
lational
By
up
3.17.82
Committee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of Pennsylvania
The Republican party of Pennsylvania
has been under the leadership of State Chairman, Clifford
L. Jones, since June of 1970. Although there was a recent
attempt to unseat Mr. Jones, by Martin Hamberger of Senator
Hugh Scott's staff, this challenge died out before any
motion went to the state committee. Cliff Jones has emerged
from this situation as the head of the state committee, how-
ever Senator Scott still maintains top control statewide,
as well as with Washington.
The primary reason for the challenge to
Jones' seat was the poor financial condition of the state
committee as is evidenced by the $ 300,000.00 dollar debt.
The bulk of this deficit results from the 1970 Broderick
Campaign for Governor. The Pennsylvania party will be in
relatively stable financial condition by the beginning of
next year. Cliff Jones intends to first, take care of
current creditors, and second, to prepare fund-raising
plans for 1972 warchests.
1971 Campaigns:
-Special election (November 2) for the
18th Concressional District, Allegheny
County (Pittsburgh) John Heinz is the
Republican nominee.
-Allegheny County Commissioners races,
Dr. William Hunt and Robert Stokes could
win control of County Board which would
mean some 8,000 patronage jobs.
-Philadelphia Mayor's race, Thather Long-
streth is the Republican nomince.
-The Supene Court of Pennsylvania, the
Barbieri and Eppinger campaigns will be
handled by the State Headquarters, with
Terry Abrams the Deputy Chairman calling
the shots.
1972 Campaigns:
No Senate races
No Governor's race
U.S. Congress
Pennsylvania will lose 2WO (2) Cong. seats - 72.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
KING
epublican
ADMINEE
6-102
E.O. 12000,
3-17-82
June 25, 1971
ational
By
EP
ommittee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of South Carolina
The Republican Party of South Carolina
has been under the leadership of State Chairman, C. Kenneth
Powell since January of this year. Ken Powell is our youngest
state chairman. He has had a difficult time with the political
problems of liis state, partially due to the fact that he is
overshadowed by Sen. Thurmond and Harry Dent who have much
more political clout and experience. The primary problem
has been patronage; Sol Blatt was recently appointed to a U.S.
District judgeship as a political move which would help the
Senator and the President, hopefully for 1972. This move
completely upset the South Carolina party allied with Powell.
This move has brought an uneasy peace between the Powell
portion of the party and those South Carolinians who favor
the Senator and Harry Dent. Since the Senator will be running
for re-election in 1972 as a more Thurmond race than an
administration race, this will drain party members into
that election campaign leaving a small group to work with
Powell and the Citizens effort. Thus Powell's power has been
undercut resulting in his uneasiness with any Washington
personage.
Senator Dole will appear in South
Carolina in the month of July to raise funds for the State
Committee. The immediate future of the financial situation
in South Carolina will rest on that appearance by the Chair-
man. The long range forecast is vague at this point pending
as to what the Citizens Committee plans to do with this
state.
1971 Campaigns:
1972 Campaigns:
Sen. Strom Thurmond's seat will be up for
re-election.
No Governor race.
ICONFIDENTIAL
AN
JUNG
tepublican
E.O.
0-102
By EP
3-17-82
June 25, 1971
lational
Committee.
REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVE STATE SUMMARY:
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt - Deputy Chairman (RNC)
FROM:
Mike Scanlon - Eastern United States
RE:
State of Virginia
The Republican Party of Virginia has
been under the leadership of State Chairman, Warren B. French,
Jr., since January of 1970. Mr. French maintains a close
relationship with Gov. Linwood Holton who is an ardent
supporter of the President's policies. The Republican
party has gained 1 Congressional and 10 State Legislative
seats since the President carried the state in 1968. Mr.
French with RNC assistance plans two Candidate Schools this
summer and fall now that Re-districting is approved.
The Virginia State Committee owes some
$ 15,000.00 dollars remaining from Gov. Holton's campaign.
Another $ 10,000.00 is owed in the 4th Congressional District.
The State Committee is able to meet current expenses but the
debis remain. The sustaining fund operation out of the
Richmond headquarters could use some organization which would
result in a better return on mailings. A Booster's Club
is in the planning stages, however, a prominent person to
run this operation has not yet been found. All in all the
Virginia party is in "good" condition. Warren French has
brought sound organizational thinking into the state 'party,
which looks as if it will pay off in next year's elections,
both on the national and on the State Legislative scenes.
1971 Campaigns:
State Legislative elections (140 seats)
1972 Campaigns:
William Spong - Seat up for election.
He is expected to run for re-election,
No Governor race
CONFIDENT
CONFIDENTIAL
epublican
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ational
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12066, Section 6-102
ommittee.
By
W
WARS, Date 3-17-82
Dole, Chairman
June 29, 1971
MEMORANDUM TO:
Ed DeBolt
FROM:
Mike Woodson
SUBJECT:
California Briefing
Everything is normal in California.
Lockheed cannot fail. The President and others should use San
Clemente as much as possible. If Mr. Firestone is the Nixon
State Chairman we need to know it. A strong Nixon Committee
MUST be established to take over from the Livermore Vacuum. IT
Pete McCloskey will be beaten in the Primary if he runs as a
Republican; unbeatable as a Democrat! Secretary of State Pat
Brown Jr. says he can run for Congress and President at the same
time. Dixon Arnett or Jim Halley are easy winners. The R.S.C.C.C.
should be given early responsibility for registration and victory squad
only. Paid registrations should be considered to overcome "Front
Lash" which is at the high school level.
The R.S.C.C.C. is in bad shape in all categories so is L. A. County
C.C. Put Livermore is committed for $150, 000 for re-apportionment
to the total exclusion of everything else. He took $20,000 raised for
start money for a small donor program to raise $750,000 and spent
it on computer time.
Mike Van Horn will be out as L.A.C.C.C. Chairman on July 26, 1971.
That meeting is designed to declare a vacancy and to appoint a new
chairman. L.A. County at this stage is out of money although Al Sauce
of U.R.F.C. raised $40, 000 this month which is the best effort in 29
months.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
- 2 -
All State Senators may have to run in 1972. No state-wide offices.
Governor Reagan should run as a Favorite Son pledged to Nixon in
the June Primary. This would save 2 or 3 million and a test of
strength--let the Democrats have a blood bath alone. The 1974 Re-
publican stars must be held at bay until after the November election.
MEW/mjn
CONFIDENTIAL
July 2, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR
Attorney General John Mitchell
H. R. Haldeman
It would be good to work with the State GOP Chairmen on
a project to have the President recognize the top GOP
leaders in each state this fall about a year from the elec-
tion. This would (1) enhance the stature of the State
Chairmen and their organizations; (2) increase morale; and
(3) make them feel more a part of the team for next year.
We could use a simple formula based on size of state, its
importance to us, etc., and allocate a certain number of
names for each state. The State Chairman would then sub-
mit his leadership list and something (letter or Christmas
card) could be sent directly from Washington. Two possible
occasions which might be used for such a mailing are the
election anniversary or Christmas. We should think in terms
of a minimum of 100 names per state to have some impact.
We might just increase the Christmas card mailing list.
USD
Harry S. Dent
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 6, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
HSAD
In checking on a possible chairman for our primary campaign
effort in Tennessee, the best prospect appears to be Louie
Donaldson, a city councilman in Memphis. He is recommended
highly by Bill Timmons from the Brock camp and Lamar Alexander
from the Baker and Dunn camps. This man is very strong with
all three of our top elected officials in Tennessee. Also, he
is a good friend of Harlow and he handled Rumsfeld's recent
speaking engagement in Tennessee. He is said to be a very
prominent and outstanding attorney.
On the negative side, he does catch some flak from time to time
as a city councilman on having to take public stands on various
issues. While Memphis has approximately 1/4 of the votes in
the state, the GOP primary votes will be biggest in the other
end of the state. For instance, in the 1970 primary campaign
240,000 people voted -- 40,000 in Memphis, 150,000 in east
Tennessee and 50,000 in middle Tennessee.
So, Lamar Alexander suggests that we come up with a lovely young
lady in east Tennessee to be a co-chairman with Donaldson. He
will give me a ring next week on a possible suggestion.
Donaldson is also a good friend of Congressman Dan Kuykendahl.
CC: Bob Haldeman
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: June 29, 1971
TO: BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT ASD
Please handle
For your information
A.G.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
STATEMENT FROM L.E. TOMMY THOMAS, CHAIRMAN,
REPUBLICAN STATE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF FLORIDA
PHYLISS SCHAFLEY, WOULD-BE POLITICAL SOOTHSAYER FROM ILLINOIS SHOULD
WORK AT POLITICS IN HER NATIVE STATE, WHERE SHE HAS YET TO WIN AN
ELECTION AND LEAVE FLORIDA POLITICS TO FLORIDIANS. HER UNFOUNDED,
UNBELIEVABLE, AND IRRESPONSIBLE REMARKS CONCERNING PRESIDENT NIXON'S
STATURE IN THE SUNSHINE STATE ARE ABSURD. A RESPONSIBLE POLL CONDUCTED
RECENTLY BY THE REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE PROVES THAT THE PRESIDENT
IS STRONGER TODAY THAN HE WAS TWO YEARS AGO IN FLORIDA. NOT ONLY
WILL HE WIN AGAIN IN '72, HE WILL WIN BY A LARGER MAJORITY THAN HE
DID IN '68. HOW MRS. SCHAFLEY, WHO HAS NOT EVEN VISITED OUR STATE
RECENTLY CAN PRESUME TO SUGGEST THAT THE PRESIDENT WOULD LOSE FLORIDA
TO A DEMOCRAT, IS DEYOND MY COMPREHENSION. HOW SHE CAN FLY IN THE FACE
OF THE STRONG ENDORSEMENT OF OUR PRESIDENT BY GOVERNOR RONALD REAGAN,
IS RIDICULOUS. I'M SORRY SHE LOST HER RACE FOR CONGRESS BY MORE THAN
10,000 VOTES LAST YEAR, BUT I WOULD SUGGEST TO HER, THAT UNTIL SHE
EMERGES A WINNER, THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE HER IS
YANKEE STAY
HOME.
#
(RADIO ACTUALITY, RELEASED TO EVERY MAJOR MARKET
1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: July 9, 1971
Poll from tone n RF
<.
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
in inne Ae
FROM:
HARRY DENT ASD la 7/11
Please handle
For your information
Republican
National
Committee.
homas C. Reed
Member for California
Executive Committee
tepublican National Committee
O. Box 371
San Rafael, California 94902
415) 456-7310
July 6, 1971
Mr. Harry S. Dent
The White House
Washington, D.C.
Dear Harry:
While in Washington last week for the meeting of the Nat-
ional Committee I talked to Tom Davis about possible op-
posing candidates for the presidency in California in 1972.
I thought you. might like to see the enclosed two memoranda
which were prepared for the delegation organizing committee
which the Govenor has named.
The committee will not be announced until August but consists
of: myself as Chairman, Eleanor Ring (National Committeewoman),
Govenor Reagan (to be represented by one staff member),
Holmes Tuttle (Govenor's campaign co-chairman), Leonard
Firestone (close friend of the President).
I discussed the above concept with John Mitchell when I was
in Washington at the time of the National Committee meeting
last Tuesday.
Warmest Regards,
Tom
Thomas C. Reed
TCR:st
Encls.
Presidential Job Rating and the Issues in California - June 8, 1971
DMI Survey, California Statewide, May 12 - 16, 1971.
605 Telephone Interviews, 493 Registered Voters. Sample appears to be valid.
PRESIDENTIAL JOB RATING: "How would you rate the job Richard Nixon is doing
as President - excellent, good, fair, or poor?"
This Survey, May 1971
Statewide, last
City of S.F.
Registered Voters Northern Southern
Campaign Survey
only
Statewide
Calif.
Calif.
Oct., 1970
April, 1971
Excellent
10%
9%
9%
14%
9%
Good
29%
28%
29%
36%
26%
Fair
39%
40%
41%
34%
33%
Poor
19%
20%
18%
14%
28%
No Opinion
3%
3%
3%
2%
4%
PRESIDENT'S BALLOT STRENGTH: "If the election for President were held to-
day, and Richard Nixon were running for re-election, would you vote for
him?"
Those who voted for
Reagan
Unruh
Northern
Southern
All Regis.
Rep.
Dem.
in 70
in '70
Calif.
Calif.
Voters
Yes
30%
60%
12%
53%
4%
28%
31%
No
49%
17%
70%
24%
84%
48%
47%
Undecided
21%
23%
18%
23%
13%
24%
22%
For comparison, the 1968 vote results in California were:
Nixon: 48.0%
Humphrey: 44.9%
Wallace: 6.8%
THE ISSUES: "What do you think is the most important problem facing the
State of California in 1971?" Note that the question precludes inter-
national problems such as Vietnam.
May, 1971
October, 1970
Taxes
19%
11%
Unemployment
13%
5%
Too much welfare
10%
4%
Ecology: Air/Water
8%
9%
More welfare to needy
7%
1%
Air pollution
7%
22%
Finances, inflation
5%
2%
Drugs, Narcotics
5%
4%
Ronald Reagan
4%
3%
Education, financing
4%
1%
Presidential Job Rating and the Issues in California, June 8, 1971
Page 2.
It is apparent that since the close of the '70 election, the economic is-
sue has mushroomed. When people are out of work, ecology and even "law
and order" shrink. Air pollution may not be named simply because it's
spring. After a hot smoggy summer in L.A., it may re-emerge. Taxes are
already the No. 1 issue. A state tax increase this year could have seri-
ous repercussions.
CONCLUSIONS:
A 1972 Nixon victory in California looks quite difficult. The President's
job rating is slipping, and by a 5:3 margin Californians claim they would
vote against him. Given a specific opponent, however, this situation
would undoubtedly improve.
With serious Republican defections (17% is three times what Richard Nixon
can afford to lose) and the apparent 6:1 trade-off in Reagan voters op-
posing Nixon versus Unruh voters favoring Nixon, Reagan assistance and in-
volvement in California would be most beneficial.
To achieve victory, taxes must be kept down, unemployment must be solved,
and people must have confidence that unemployment has been solved.
June 11, 1971
The 1972 Presidential Primary in California.
California's presidential primary will be held a year from now.
The earliest filing date is March 8. The latest is April 7, -
subsequent to the Alaska, Florida, New Hampshire and Wisconsin
primaries.
To adequately plan and select a Presidential primary slate in
California, one should be aware of the possible challengers -
both within and without the party. For this purpose we asked*
two types of questions throughout California.
First of all, "If Richard Nixon did not run again for Presi-
dent in 1972, who would you personally like to see become the
next President of the United States?" The open-ended nature of
the question allows one to measure interest now - a year before
the primary. The results, among Republicans, are listed below,
and are compared to a published statewide Mervin Field poll
(S.F. Chronicle, May 12, 1971). The Field poll was, presumably
closed end, i.e., 7 or 8 names were listed on a card.
REPUBLICANS:
This survey
Field Poll
Don't know, undecided
60.6%
8%
Reagan
13.8%
40%
Muskie
4.6%
-
Agnew
3.1%
12%
Goldwater
3.1%
-
Rockefeller
2.1%
18%
Lindsay
1.5%
17%
McCloskey
.5%
5%
All others (none over 3%)
11.3%
-
100%
100%
The same question, among Democrats:
Don't Know, Undecided
52.0%
Muskie
18.7%
Kennedy
9.5%
Humphrey
5.1%
Others (none over 3%)
14.7
100%
*
California Statewide, DMI, May 12 - 16.
605 Telephone Interviews.
Page 2.
Secondly, we asked specific head-to-head questions of Republicans
to gauge the general strength of McCloskey and Lindsay. A head-
to-head, President VS. Governor, was included only to measure the
President's base of strength.
The results, Republicans only:
Nixon
76%
Nixon
76%
Nixon
65%
McCloskey
7%
Lindsay
12%
Reagan
21%
Don't Know
17%
Don't Know
12%
Don't Know 14%
The above strongly suggests that no serious opposition is currently
evident within the Republican party, that Democratic voters have
not yet focused on a candidate, and that preliminary planning for
the delegation and primary should proceed with the serious problems
of the general election in mind.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 14, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Dent Office Analyses of States
Dent forwarded the first two state analyses prepared by Tom
Davis, David Eisnehower's best friend. The discussions of
Delaware and Georgia are well done. To summarize:
Delaware: The war is the issue; Nixon is not blamed
for the economic situation; and the Wallace
appeal is down. Senator Boggs has not decided
whether to run for re-election in 1972. Tom
Evans argues that the President personally
encourage Boggs to run because his candidacy
is considered crucial in carrying the state
for the President. The Republican Party is
in shape and will be an asset.
Georgia: The President could carry Georgia if Wallace
doesn't run. (Bo Calloway thinks Wallace
will not run.) The Republican Party is
faction-ridden and would be little help
especially if Calloway enters the Republican
primary for Senator Grambell's seat.
Attachment
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 10, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
PSD
Attached is the first in a series of state political reports
prepared by a summer intern in my office named Tom Davis.
Davis is a very sharp political science graduate who is David
Eisenhower's best friend.
I asked him for PR purposes and also to provide us with a
political analysis of each state, that he call key GOP leaders
in all of the states and put together a political summary on a
state by state basis.
I told him to record exactly what the people say, whether it be
gripes, praise, their analysis of our potential for 1972 and
what other races there may be and the effect these races may
have on our race in 1972.
DELAWARE
1968 Presidential:
Nixon
96,714
Humphrey
89,194
Wallace
28,459
Presidential prospects:
Both the State Chairman and Tom Evans agree that the Presi-
dent would face a very close race for re-election here if the
election were held today. The war is not popular, but as an
issue does not seem to hurt us as much as in other states.
Lay-offs at DuPont have brought the economic picture close to
the minds of the state's voters, but the Wilmington area faces
such cutbacks periodically and not so likely to "blame Nixon. "
Nevertheless, a unanimity persists among Party leaders that
the President has gained little ground since 1968. The Wallace
appeal is also perceived to be on the wane.
The leading Democrat appears to be Senator Muskie, at present.
He has been into the state a couple of times during the past
year and Party leaders seem to like him. Humphrey also has
some appeal here.
The State Chairman feels that we are hurting ourselves by not
using trade associations to help boost the Administration's
agricultural policies and that we have lost ground among the
farmers in the southern end of the state. He feels that the
"Salute to Agriculture" day was pathetic in terms of utilizing
the resources we have available.
The Senate picture:
The great concern here is whether Senator J. Caleb Boggs will
seek a third term or not. If the Senator runs again, everyone
seems to agree that he will be unbeatable (he polled 59% in
1966). If he does not run, a bitter primary may develop over
who is to replace him. The leading contenders for the nom-
ination would be Congressman Pete DuPont and Wilmington Mayor
Hal Haskell. Tom Evans fears a divisive primary could cost us
the seat. He suggests that the President personally intervene
and ask Boggs to seek another term. He believes the Senator's
presence on the ballot would help the rest of the ticket as well
as hold the seat for us.
Delaware
Page 2
Governor's race:
Governor Russell Peterson is thought to be in excellent shape
for a second term. He will probably be opposed by Democrat
Sherman Tribbetts, a former Lt. Governor.
House race:
If Pete DuPont doesn't seek the Senate seat, he should be in
good shape for re-election. However, if he vacates this seat
it could go Democratic.
Comments:
The key to a strong state ticket would seem to be Caleb Boggs.
If he retires, we could lose the Senate and House seats. If
he seeks re-election, we are virtually assured victory in the
top races - which would help the President along, too. Reed
thinks that the Senator is inclined not to run at present, but that
every effort should be made to keep him in the race.
The Party organization seems strong and well oiled. No Demo-
crat has managed a statewide victory for major office since
1964. The State Chairman is already pulling together the orga-
nization for 1972. The Party should be an asset to the President
here.
GEORGIA
1968 Presidential race:
Wallace
535,550
Nixon
380, 111
Humphrey
334,440
Presidential prospects:
Both the State Chairman and Bo Callaway agree that Wallace
would win in a three-way race today by sweeping rural
Georgia. The President is not unpopular, "no one is cussin'
him", Bo Callaway says, but he doesn't seem to evoke much
enthusiasm either. Bussing has hurt us a great deal. How-
ever, with Wallace out of the race the President should be
able to win handily, sweeping rural Georgia and breaking
even in the metropolitan areas. Muskie appears to have some
support here and our leaders seem to agree that he has a
moderate image. Governor Carter and a lot of the Court House
crowd can be expected to line up behind him in a two-way race,
but this shouldn't stop a Nixon victory. Jackson and Mills are,
of course, very formidable Democrats if they could get a nom-
ination.
Senate race:
The Democratic Senate picture looks very crowded at present.
Maddox is a heavy favorite if he runs, but he has not yet
decided whether or not to make the race. Senator Gambrell
is probably too liberal for the state, but he has been cam-
paigning hard ever since he was appointed and will get a big
Negro vote. He will probably make the run-off. Carl Sanders
and Ernest Vandiver are making noises about running, but both
would have tough races. State Labor Commissioner Sam Caldwell
is also running and may pull some votes. Congressman Stuckey
is also running and could be the winner if Maddox doesn't run.
Stuckey is attractive, conservative and has lots of money. Bo
Callaway discounts him but the State Chairman feels that this
is the man to beat if Maddox doesn't run.
The Republican Party is unsure of its nominee as well. Con-
gressman Thompson is committed to making the race, according
Georgia
Page 2
to Callaway, and could run a strong race. Bo has not made
up his mind yet whether he will run or not. He says it is
too early for that, but he knows he can win against Thompson
in a primary.
Our chances for this seat depend on a couple of things. Most
importantly, it will be hard to win if the President doesn't
run well. Secondly, Gambrell or some other liberal would be
the most vulnerable in the opinion of our people. Gambrell
has moved steadily left since taking his seat and Bo thinks he
may have gone too far on SST and the European troop cut.
Another key factor in this race might be to keep a unified
Party together for the general election effort. The State Chair-
man fears that a blood-letting Callaway-Thompson primary
would seriously jeopardize any chance we might have for the
seat.
House of Representatives:
The Congressional districts are supposed to be reapportioned
sometime this summer. Population shifting within the state
gives the Atlanta area more Congressional clout. This could
result in a one seat gain for us, but more likely we will be
fortunate to hold what we have. Ben Blackburn is solid no
matter what the Legislature gives him. Thompson's seat, if
the black vote is consolidated, could $0 to a Negro. Thompson
may be forced into the Senate race simply because of a 40%
Negro district, according to Callaway. Cobb County will be in
a third district and will furnish a strong GOP base for a House
district.
There is an outside chance we could win Stuckey's seat (Way
Cross, Brunswick, southeast Georgia), but only in a GOP sweep.
Bo says that if Jack Brinkley goes for the Senate and vacates
the third district, we may be able to reclaim it -- but he bets
Brinkley will stay where he is.
Outlook:
The actions of George Wallace (Callaway doesn't think he will
run) and Lester Maddox will determine what happens to the
Georgia
Page 3
Republican ticket in Georgia in 1972. With both of them
out of the race, we have a real chance to make inroads.
At present, both look very strong if they decide to run.
The Party organization is badly faction-ridden. Our best
bet here seems to be to pay lip service to the Party and
work through the Citizens Committee. We need Demo-
cratic support to win here, much as in South Carolina, so
Party labels should be played down.
June 14, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Dent Office Analyses of States
Dent forwarded the first two state analyses prepared by Tom
Davis, David Eisnehower's best friend. The discussions of
Delaware and Georgia are well done. To summarize:
Delaware: The war is the issue; Nixon is not blamed
for the economic situation; and the Wallace
appeal is down. Senator Boggs has not decided
whether to run for re-election in 1972. Tom
Evans argues that the President personally
encourage Boggs to run because his candidacy
is considered crucial in carrying the state
for the President. The Republican Party is
in shape and will be an asset.
Georgia: The President could carry Georgia if Wallace
doesn't run. (Bo Calloway thinks Wallace
will not run.) The Republican Party is
faction-ridden and would be little help
especially if Calloway enters the Republican
patmary for Senator Grambell's seat.
Attachment
GS:elr
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 10, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY DENT
DSD
Attached is the first in a series of state political reports
prepared by a summer intern in my office named Tom Davis.
Davis is a very sharp political science graduate who is David
Eisenhower's best friend.
I asked him for PR purposes and also to provide us with a
political analysis of each state, that he call key GOP leaders
in all of the states and put together a political summary on a
state by state basis.
I told him to record exactly what the people say, whether it be
gripes, praise, their analysis of our potential for 1972 and
what other races there may be and the effect these races may
have on our race in 1972.
DELAWARE
1968 Presidential:
Nixon
96,714
Humphrey
89,194
Wallace
28,459
Presidential prospects:
Both the State Chairman and Tom Evans agree that the Presi-
dent would face a very close race for re-election here if the
election were held today. The war is not popular, but as an
issue does not seem to hurt us as much as in other states.
Lay-offs at DuPont have brought the economic picture close to
the minds of the state's voters, but the Wilmington area faces
such cutbacks periodically and not so likely to "blame Nixon. "
Nevertheless, a unanimity persists among Party leaders that
the President has gained little ground since 1968. The Wallace
appeal is also perceived to be on the wane.
The leading Democrat appears to be Senator Muskie, at present.
He has been into the state a couple of times during the past
year and Party leaders seem to like him. Humphrey also has
some appeal here.
The State Chairman feels that we are hurting ourselves by not
using trade associations to help boost the Administration's
agricultural policies and that we have lost ground among the
farmers in the southern end of the state. He feels that the
Salute to Agriculture" day was pathetic in terms of utilizing
the resources we have available.
The Senate picture:
The great concern here is whether Senator J. Caleb Boggs will
seek a third term or not. If the Senator runs again, everyone
seems to agree that he will be unbeatable (he polled 59% in
1966). If he does not run, a bitter primary may develop over
who is to replace him. The leading contenders for the nom-
ination would be Congressman Pete DuPont and Wilmington Mayor
Hal Haskell. Tom Evans fears a divisive primary could cost us
the scat. He suggests that the President personally intervene
and ask Boggs to seek another term. He believes the Senator's
presence on the ballot would help the rest of the ticket as well
as hold the seat for us.
Delaware
Page 2
Governor's race:
Governor Russell Peterson is thought to be in excellent shape
for a second term. He will probably be opposed by Democrat
Sherman Tribbetts, a former Lt. Governor.
House race:
If Pete DuPont doesn't seek the Senate seat, he should be in
good shape for re-election. However, if he vacates this seat
it could go Democratic.
Comments:
The key to a strong state ticket would seem to be Caleb Boggs
If he retires, we could lose the Senate and House seats. If
he seeks re-election, we are virtually assured victory in the
top races - which would help the President along, too. Reed
thinks that the Senator is inclined not to run at present, but that
every effort should be made to keep him in the race.
The Party organization seems strong and well oiled. No Demo-
crat has managed a statewide victory for major office since
1964. The State Chairman is already pulling together the orga-
nization for 1972. The Party should be an asset to the President
here.
GEORGIA
1968 Presidential race:
Wallace
535,550
Nixon
380, 111
Humphrey
334,440
Presidential prospects:
Both the State Chairman and Bo Callaway agree that Wallace
would win in a three-way race today by sweeping rural
Georgia. The President is not unpopular, "no one is cussin'
him", Bo Callaway says, but he doesn't seem to evoke much
enthusiasm either. Bussing has hurt us a great deal. How-
ever, with Wallace out of the race the President should be
able to win handily, sweeping rural Georgia and breaking
even in the metropolitan areas. Muskie appears to have some
support here and our leaders seem to agree that he has a
moderate image. Governor Carter and a lot of the Court House
crowd can be expected to line up behind him in a two-way race,
but this shouldn't stop a Nixon victory. Jackson and Mills are,
of course, very formidable Democrats if they could get a nom-
ination.
Senate race:
The Democratic Senate picture looks very crowded at present.
Maddox is a heavy favorite if he runs, but he has not yet
decided whether or not to make the race. Senator Gambrell
is probably too liberal for the state, but he has been cam-
paigning hard ever since he was appointed and will get a big
Negro vote. He will probably make the run-off. Carl Sanders
and Ernest Vandiver are making noises about running, but both
would have tough races. State Labor Commissioner Sam Caldwell
is also running and may pull some votes. Congressman Stuckey
is also running and could be the winner if Maddox doesn't run.
Stuckey is attractive, conservative and has lots of money. Bo
Callaway discounts him but the State Chairman feels that this
is the man to beat if Maddox doesn't run.
The Republican Party is unsure of its nominee as well. Con-
gressman Thompson is committed to making the race, according
Georgia
Page 2
to Callaway, and could run a strong race. Bo has not made
up his mind yet whether he will run or not. He says it is
too early for that, but he knows he can win against Thompson
in a primary.
Our chances for this seat depend on a couple of things. Most
importantly, it will be hard to win if the President doesn't
run well. Secondly, Gambrell or some other liberal would be
the most vulnerable in the opinion of our people. Gambrell
has moved steadily left since taking his seat and Bo thinks he
may have gone too far on SST and the European troop cut.
Another key factor in this race might be to keep a unified
Party together for the general election effort. The State Chair-
man fears that a blood-letting Callaway-Thompson primary
would seriously jeopardize any chance we might have for the
seat.
House of Representatives:
The Congressional districts are supposed to be reapportioned
sometime this summer. Population shifting within the state
gives the Atlanta area more Congressional clout. This could
result in a one seat gain for us, but more likely we will be
fortunate to hold what we have. Ben Blackburn is solid no
matter what the Legislature gives him. Thompson's seat, if
the black vote is consolidated, could $0 to a Negro. Thompson
may be forced into the Senate race simply because of a 40%
Negro district, according to Callaway. Cobb County will be in
a third district and will furnish a strong GOP base for a House
district.
There is an outside chance we could win Stuckey's seat (Way
Cross, Brunswick, southeast Georgia), but only in a GOP sweep.
Bo says that if Jack Brinkley goes for the Senate and vacates
the third district, we may be able to reclaim it -- but he bets
Brinkley will stay where he is.
Outlook:
The actions of George Wallace (Callaway doesn't think he will
run) and Lester Maddox will determine what happens to the
Georgia
Page 3
Republican ticket in Georgia in 1972. With both of them
out of the race, we have a real chance to make inroads.
At present, both look very strong if they decide to run.
The Party organization is badly faction-ridden. Our best
bet here seems to be to pay lip service to the Party and
work through the Citizens Committee. We need Demo-
cratic support to win here, much as in South Carolina, so
Party labels should be played down.
ADMINISTRATIVELY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
CONFIDENTIAL
July 27, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Rumsfeld Memoranda to
the Attorney General
Counsellor Rumsfeld's recent memoranda (copies attached) for
the Attorney General cover:
July 22: A Florida fact sheet with deadlines for the
Presidential Preference Primary Election
on March 14, 1972 indicates that the seven
member Presidential Candidate Selection
Committee will receive a list of "presidential
candidates generally advocated and recognized
in news media" during the second week of January
1972 from the Secretary of State. After notice
to the candidates, their names will appear
on the ballot "unless he (one of the candidates)
submits an affidavit that he is not a candidate".
The delegates (of which two-thirds must be from
each Congressional District and 10% from the State
Executive Committee) submitted by the candidate
are bound to support their candidate until he re-
leases them or receives less than 35% of the votes.
July 14: McCloskey could be kept off the Florida primary
ballot by the vote of the three Republicans on
the seven member commission according to Lou
Frey. Rumsfeld says: 1) It might help McCloskey
in other states to be excluded in Florida;
2) McCloskey might get on the ballot anyway; and
3) The President might want to swamp McCloskey
in Florida.
June 14: Concerning women's support for the President
some argue that: 1) The Republican Party doesn't
understand the "Woman's Revolution"; 2) This
Administration has made only token moves toward
traditional women's job's; 3) Key officials are
insensitive to the issue; 4) We mishandled the
equal rights for women amendments to the 1963 Civil
Rights Act; 5) Women must have equal substantive
responsibility in the Campaign; 6) The Democrats
are positioned better on the issue; 7) Barbara
Franklin and the Citizens must do more.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 22, 1971
MEMO FOR:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
DON RUMSFELD
July 22, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
Attached is an up-to-date fact sheet relating to
the Presidential Preference Primary Election to
be held in Florida, March 14, 1972, compiled by
the Elections Division in Florida.
PRESIDENTIAL EFTEEPENCE PRIMARY - MARCH 14, 1972
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SELECTION COMMITTEE
Secretary of State Richard (Dick) Store, Chairman and Non-Voting Member
Richard A. Pottigrew, Spenker of the House
Jerry Thomas, President of the Senate
John Moyle, Chairman, Dr mocratic State Executive Committee
L. E. Thomas, Chairman, Republican State Executive Committee
Donald H. Reed, Jr., House Minority Leader
Warren S. Henderson, Senate Minority Leader
EVENT
DATE
Secretary of State shall prepare and publish a list of
DURING SECOND WEEK IN
presidential candidates generally advocated and recognized
JANUARY 1972 (WEEK OF
in news media throughout the United States and submit the
JANUARY 10-14, 1972)
names to the Presidential Candidates Selection Committee.
Presidential Candidates Selection Committee shall meet in
DURING THIRD WEEK IN
Tallahassee at a date to be announced by the Secretary of
JANUARY 1972 (WEEK OF
State.
JANUARY 17-20, 1972)
The Presidential Candidates Selection Committee submits
NOT LATER THAN
to the Department of State the names of the candidates.
JANUARY 20, 1972
The Secretary of State notifies the presidential
NOT LATER THAN
candidates selected, in writing by registered mail.
FEBRUARY 1, 1972
A candidate who is not selected by the Secretary of State
PRIOR TO FEBRUARY 10,
or who is deleted by the Presidential Candidates Selection
1972
Committee may request in writing to the chairman that his
name be placed on the ballot.
The Presidential Candidates Selection Committee shall meet
NOT EARLIER THAN
to consider such request as mentioned in Item Number Five.
FEBRUARY 10 AND NOT
LATER THAN
FEBRUARY 15, 1972
The Department of State shall notify the candidate within
NOT EARLIER THAN
five (5) days that his name shall appear on the ballot.
FEBRUARY 15 AND NOT
LATER THAN
FEBRUARY 20, 1972
The names of the candidates shall be printed on the ballot,
NOT LATER THAN NOON,
unless he submits an affidavit that he 15 not a candidate.
FEBRUARY 15, 1972
(The Department of State is required to notify the State
Executive Committee that his name will not appear on the
ballct.)
The candidate may submit to the Department of State a list
NOT LATER THAN NOON,
of delegates.
MARCH 1, 1972
1.
The State Executive Committee of each party, ninety (90)
NOT LATER THAN
days prior to the presidential preference primary, shall
DECEMBER 15, 1971
by party rule establish procedures to be followed in the
selection of delegates.
A candidate who fails to submit a list - delegates and is
NOT LATER THAN
entitled to delegates shall have delegates selected
DECEMBER 15, 1971
according to party rule adopted ninety (90, days prior to
the presidential preference primary.
Delecates selected shall file with the Department of State
an oath pledging support at the convention to the candidate
of their party for whom selected to support; that he will
support such candidate until be :- cith cominated or
receives less than thirty-five (35) per cont or the votes,
or until released. The State Expe :tive Committee shall
determine when the delegates must tile the 11 qualification
papers.
The State Executive Committee by rule at least ninety (90)
NOT LATER THAN
days prior to the presidential preference primary shall
DECEMBER 15, 1971
determine the number of delegates and alternates, from:
(1) State-at-large.
(2) By the State Executive Committee. (Not more than 108)
(3) From each Congressional district. (At least 66 2/38)
NOTE: At least sixty-six and two-thirds (66 2/3) per cent
are required to be filled from the Congressional
district and at least two (2) by the Executive
Committee, provided that not more than ten (10) per
cent may be selected by the Executive Committee,
and the remainder at large.
Compiled by Dorothy W. Glisson,
Director of the Division
of Elections of the Florida
Department of State
July 12, 1971
[
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 13, 1971
FOR:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
DON RUMSI RUMSTELD 7 ELD
July 14, 1971
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATE 18 MARKING
L.O.
12003,
CP
section
By
6-102
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
SUBJECT:
Florida Primary per Lou Frey
Don Reid, Minority Leader in the State House reports that
under Florida law a commission is appointed to determine
the names of the individuals who should be placed in the
Florida Primary and is composed of three Republicans and
three Democrats. The three Republicans would be Don Reid,
House Minority Leader; Warren Henderson, Senate Minorily
Leader; and Tom Thomas, Chairman of the Republican Party.
A 3 to 3 vote will keep a name off. Thus if all three Republicans
voted against having McCloskey on the ballot, he would not be
put on. Don Reid indicates that he would be willing to do
that if it were thought desirable, and believes the other two
could be persuaded to do so and take the heat. Further,
it might hurt in the press if the GOP members kept him off
and thus help McCloskey in another state. It may be, however,
that there is a way that McCloskey could get on regardless
of the Commission's decision. Beyond that, it might be
desirable if the President would swamp him, to allow McClocks 00 30
the ballot.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM: DON RUMSFELD
DATE: July 7, 1971
F.Y.I.
CONFIDENTIAL
June 14, 1971
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMIN,
NG
By
CP E.O. 12003, 102
Date 3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
Some supporters of the President have expressed concern
to me over the role of women in the Party, especially in
relation to our efforts for 1972. They seem convinced that
we do not-fully understand what will be required to attract
women's support (volunteers, money, votes). The following
items are most often cited:
1. The Republican Party does not understand what
the "Woman's Revolution" is all about. The role of women is
changing and the changes are supported by a large segment of
the population, even though most women do not subscribe to the
excesses of vocal women's lib advocates;
2. Their perception is that our efforts to include women con-
stitute tokenism at best; that when challenged on this point, our
response is always to cite statistics indicating we have done
better than previous Administrations, but the statistics also
indicate that very few women occupy positions of importance;
that the jobs they do get are traditionally "women's jobs"
(i. e., head of Consumer Affairs);
3. That key officials, including senior White House staff
members, are insensitive to the issue often treating it as a joke
and that there are no senior White House staff members who are
women;
4. That our position on the equal rights for women
amendment and changes in the 1963 Civil Rights Act demonstrated
insensitivity toward women, indicating a lack of interest on our
part in the concerns of women;
CONFIDENTIAL-MEMO
Page 2
5. That no amount of campaign rhetoric or special
organization arrangements (i. C. a "women's division") can
compensate for a failure to involve women on an equal footing
with men in the substantive work of the Administration; and
6. That to date, the Democrats have done a more
effective job of capitalizing on women's concerns, especially in
preparation for their upcoming convention.
Whether one agrees with any or all of the criticisms, the
significant fact is that they are too often voiced by good and
loyal supporters of the President. In gearing up for 1972, it
would seem wise to give attention to this problem whenever
possible. In addition to our recruitment offort under Barbara
Franklin, we may want to seek out qualified women for major
posts at the Citizens' Committee, and ways to handle the
equal rights amendment.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 3, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Rumsfeld Memoranda to
the Attorney General
Counsellor Rumsfeld's recent memoranda (copies attached)
for the Attorney General cover:
June 26: McCloskey believes Reagan is actively
pursuing the Presidency because Florida's
primary on March 14 will force New Hamp-
shire to change to March 7 thereby per-
mitting Reagan to assess the results before
filing deadline for the California primary
(March 10);
June 25: An analysis of New Jersey by Al Abrahams makes
three points: 1) Governor Cahill and his top
three - Paul Sherwin, Joe McCrane, and Pete
Garvin - are becoming stronger and should be
cultivated by the President in light of the
disintegration of the 1968 Nixon team;
2) there is no serious primary challenger
to Case, who appears honest among the
scandals, but who may try to block the Nelson
Gross position at the State Department;
3) State Senate President Ray Bateman should
be tapped to assist the President and assure
that McCloskey goes nowhere in the primary;
June 25: Al Abrahams also did an analysis of Maryland
which covers: 1) personal rather than
Republican Party organizations control the
state though Alexander Lankler, the Republican
State Chairman is effective and trusted by
Agnew; 2) Senator Mathias and Lankler have
seen Dent about a black Republican Baltimore
mayoral candidate but no one believes any of
the possible Democratic nominees could be defeated;
2
3) Mathias is pushing Beall's brother to
be the gubernatorial candidate in 1974
though James Gleason, former AA to then
Senator Nixon, is considering running for
governor or against Mathias in the Repub-
lican primary; 4) citizens committee headed
by Milton Eisenhower is suggested as well as
a return visit by the President to Maryland
with Beall.
1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 26, 1971
TO:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM: DONALD RUMSFELD
CONFIDENTIAL
32 AN
E.O. 200.00 6-102
By EP ------ bute-3-12-82
DETERMINED T) BE AN
ADMINISTRATIV. MEKING
CONFIDENTIAL
E.O. 12065, Suc 01 6-102
By
EF
3-17-82
June 26, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR :
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
When McCloskey was in Florida a week ago, he passed
along the following comment to a friend of mine who related it
to me. McCloskey said, "Tell the White House that now that
Florida has established a presidential primary date for March 14
New Hampshire will unquestionably change their primary date
from March 14 to March 7. In California the last day to file for
the Presidential primary is March 10. That means that Reagan
will be able to wait for the results of the New Hampshire Primary
before having to make up his mind as to whether or not to enter
the California Primary. 11
Obviously McCloskey believes Reagan is actively interested
in becoming President and that the date changes will work to the
advantage of those Republicans ambitious to be President -not to
the President's advantage.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 25, 1971
FOR
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFELD
TO 65-
For summary
DETERMINED TO BE AN
June 25, 1971
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EK
NARS, Date 3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
Attached is some very current material on New Jersey
that was prepared by Al Abrahams who has managed
statewide campaigns in the State of New Jersey in the
past.
CC: Bob Haldeman
NEW JERSEY
Organization: John Dimon of Burlington County (near Philadelphia)
is State Chairman, but the state party structure is weak in the
presence of a strong Governor.
Governor Cahill and his men are the N.J. organization. He is
coming on stronger with the Party organization all the time.
At first distrusted because he vests power in a few and comes
from South Jersey in a traditionally northern-oriented power
system, Cahill is beginning to be recognized by the Party as
effective and a strong decision-maker. His personal team is
communicating now with the Party organization. Previously,
they were either ill-informed or rode roughshod.
Some county organizations are strong: the Nelson Gross-Stetile
combination in Bergen County is potent, with Gross still the
tough, effective influence he has long been. (Look for Sen,
Case opposition to reported Gross State Department appointment.
Gross lacked bar endorsement when Cahill wanted to name him a
state judge and Case may use this.)
Lew Grey is an effective chairman (Somerset County). Henry
Syan of Mercer is coming along; the bad party split in populous
Essex County is improving slightly under George Wallhauser Jr.
whose father was a well-regarded Republican Congressman.
William Strang, leader of Gloucester County, has a strong hold
on his organization.
Ben Danskin of Monmouth County is a heavy-weight who inherited
the late Russell Woolley's machine and is doing well with it.
But essentially, all power flows from and to Governor Cahill
and his personal leaders.
The team that provided RN a smashing convention victory over the
state organization is disintegrating.
John Beier Theurer, former Hudson County Chairman, has been
indicted in the scandals there and has pleaded guilty; State
Senator Farley (long-standing Nixon man) of Atlantic County is
weakened and reportedly about to come under heavy scrutiny from
the State Crime Commission. John Gallagher, Middlesex County
Chairman, strongly pro-RN, has resigned and a weak chairman,
Leon Janecki, has replaced him. Pro-Nixon State Senators William
Hiering (Ocean County) and Harry Scars (Morris) are retiring.
Only Gross is strong and he has lost statewide influence in the
wake ofhis defeat for U.S. Senator.
N.J. - 2
Congressman Charles Sandman Jr., Cape May County leader, has
just lost in an attempt to name the party's State Senate choice
from there. Young Assemblyman Andy Cafiero Jr., beat the
Sandman forces and is a comer in South Jersey.
The State picture: Cahill is coming along, probably is stronger
with Democrats than with rank-and-file Republicans. He calls
his shots through three people. They are into everything and
their effectiveness is increasing with their tenure. The most
powerful Republicant in the state is long-time Cahill associate,
Paul Sherwin, Secretary of State. All major decisions have his
imprint. Almost as potent are Joe McCrane of Camden, strong
conservative and pro-RN, who is State Treasurer, and Pete
Garvin of Bergen County, Cahill's chief link to the legislature.
U.S. Senate race: Incredibly, after thumbing his nose at
rank-and-file Republicans for 18 years, Senator Case has as yet
no serious primary opposition. No Democrat looks strong
against him. Labor polls show Case running strong within their
ranks against any Democrat, including ex-Governor Richard Hughes.
Assemblyman Walter Lee, a Burlington County conservative, will
likely run against Case in the primary but is not knownat all.
McCrane is anti-Case and could make a strong primary race with
heavy financial support. There are reports he is contemplating
just that. McCrane is race track owner Gene Mori's son-in-law
and is a successful businessman in his own right. McCrane must
be respected, but Case has the current state scandals going for
him. In the end, he has retained Republican support because of
his carefully-cultivated honesty image. Be 18 one of the rocks
in a .scandalous state situation. But McCrane is Cahill. Gross
could be very effective in an anti-Case primary and the possi-
bilities cannot De overlooked. Gross and Case just don't get
along.
How does all this affect RN? It doesn't much. He has no opposi-
tion fram any Republican of any standing. Case will play a loner
game in the general and will likely be anywhere but in major
evidence during RN appearances.
McCloskey will go nowhere in a Republican preferential primary
and RN strategy should likely be not to enter anyone's name
against McCloskey, including his own, in New Jersey.
What To Do:
An impressive citizens committee could be effective at this time.
Lean on State Senate President Ray Bateman, a young, completely
capable and well-regarded leader for advice. Bateman is a natura_
for RN, loyal dedicated, decent and sound.
N.J. - 3
Cultivate Cahill at every turn. Sherwin has a low regard for
the political sagacity of RN's advisers and this is important.
Gross can't keep Cahill in line. First, Cahill doesn't like
him that much. Second, Cahill is essentially a loner with a
good deal of "brown derby" deep inside him. New Jersey takes
work to keep. it stable. It can be won in '72. RN has always
been strong there.
V.
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINASTRATIVE MARKING
12083, Section 6-102
June 25, 1971
E.O. Et , Date 3-17-82
By
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
F.
Attached is some very current material on Maryland that
came from a number of sources, principally Al Abrahams,
a former statewide campaign manager in the State of
Maryland.
cc: Bob Haldeman
MARYLAND
Organization: The decisive defeat of the Republican
gubernatorial candidate has not helped the general condition,
already deteriorated, of the Republican county and state
organizations in Maryland. Maryland has not been noted for
the strength of its organizations at the county level with
few exceptions. The hitherto reasonably strong Montgomery
County organization has been deteriorating in the past couple
of years. Prince Georges County, a rising star on the
Republican horizon, is now threatened by a factional dispute
between Congressman Larry Hogan and William Gullett, the newly-
elected County Executive. Hogan had his own candidate for
County Executive and the beginnings of what could be a bitter
dispute are becoming evident. And the difficult part of this,
from a party standpoint, is that Prince Georges County could
become the banner Republican spot in the greater Washington
suburban area. This is particularly so because the quality
of the Hogan and Gullett leadership is high and because Montgomery
County's heavy measure of liberalism is unreliable.
A formerly strong Montgomery County organization has deteriorated
in the past two years; Baltimore County, which has been delivering
sizeable majorities for Senators Mathias and Beall, the President
and the Vice President has just undergone a change in leadership;
western Maryland, where State Senator Ed Thomas of Frederick
County and Ed Mason of Allegany County are among the most
effective leaders, continues to be relatively strong; the special
election of Congressman Bill Mills in Rogers Morton's old district
represents a continued claim on the success of a personal, rather
than a party organization; and a continued sad decline of
Republican organization efforts in Baltimore City portray a
generally negative picture on the strengths and importance of
the county Republican organizations.
Who is the organization: A brigh spot in the picture is the
hard work of Alexander Lankler, the Republican state chairman.
He is a long-time Rockefeller man who is trusted by the Vice
President and his Maryland people and who aspires to full
recognition as an accredited and effective Republican non-
factional leader. He is doing a good job of shor ng up the
party's financial problems which have always been extreme. The
only successful Republican fund-raiser for many years has been
the Vice President, both as Governor and as the vice presidential
candidate. He has strong ties to conservative Democratic
businessmen, along with Republicans who dominate the Baltimore
financial scene. No other Republican in Maryland can make the
Agnew kind of dent. But Lankler has consolidated party fund-
raising and is making it work to a far greater extent than
before.
Md. - 2
The personal organizations of State Senators Jervis Finney,
Porter Hopkins and Jack Bishop, all from the western part of
Baltimore County, are effective. A new member of the House
of Delegates, Bill Linton, from the eastern blue-collar end
of Baltimore County, also was a recent victory for an effective
personal organization. Senator Mathias and, particularly,
Senator Beall have strong followings in various sections of
the state, especially in western Maryland. Senator Mathias
is also strong in the Washington suburbs. Beall, if properly
motivated, could be the strong leader that the state party has
needed since, and even before, the departure of Governor Agnew
from the state scene.
An issue is developing over the Republican choice for Baltimore
mayor. Lankler and Mathias have visited Harry Dent bringing
the message that a black Republican needs to be the party choice
for mayor. The probably front-runner for the Democratic
nomination is a black (and former Republican) George Russell.
But he will have spirited opposition from State Senator Clarence
Mitchell III, also black and the son of NAACP Washington
representative, Clarence Mitchell. The upshot is likely to be
that City Council Chairman Schaefer will win the Democratic
nomination for mayor.
Lankler and Mathias are concerned that in the absence of some
"message" or leadership, Ross Pierpont, a former Democrat, will
walk off with the Republican nomination and tlat he will run a
Klan-type campaign and hurt Republican chances in that area
and state-wide. Pierpont is evidently planning to become a
candidate because he thinks a black will be nominated by the
Democrats.
Mathias apparently believes that Republican candidates could
be selected who would strongly enunciate the President's
positions as they affect urban areas. He believes this is one
way of selling what the President has been trying to do for the
people of the cities. There is a real question as to the
effectiveness of such an approach. For example, one potential
black candidate that the Republican leadership may put forth is
the Reverend Marion Bascom. He would be highly unlikely to base
his campaign on support of the President or on what the President
is trying to do. It is impossible to find anyone who believes
a Republican can be elected mayor of Baltimore regardless of
his platform. On the Mathias-Lankler point, local people running
in the Baltimore mayoralty election could help "sell" RN programs
like revenue-sharing, and it would be a plus to get further
exposure for the heart of the Administratin's urban-suburban
programs. The danger is that in the inevitable Republican loss,
the President would be tagged with the defeat.
Md. - 3
The gubernatorial picture for 1974: Representative Hogan,
an ardent Nixon supporter, wants to be Governor. This is
do-able. He has a strong personal following in his Congressional
district and is the kind of candidate who could appeal in
Baltimore County and, quite probably, in western Maryland. Hogan
has this growing inhibition -- his split with County Executive
Gullett, which, if not healed, could deny him the home base he
needs to be nominated. A strong local leader who would like to
be Governor is Joseph Alton of Anne Arundel County, part of the
Morton-Mills district, who apparently was a key factor in the
Mills special election. Alton wanted to run for Governor in
1970 and likely considers himself a candidate in 1974. Another
potential statewide office seeker is Montgomery County Executive
James Gleason, a former Administrative Assistant to then-Senator
Nixon and, later, Senator Knowland. Some believe he might
test Mathias in a Republican primary for the Senate. He has
run for the Senate before with a previously inadequate power base.
The Mathias wing would like to focus on Senator Beall's younger
brother, George, for Governor, as early as 1974 but probably
as late as 1978. Young Beall is the U.S. Attorney in Baltimore;
he is vigorous, attractive and has the family name.
Some concerns are expressed about Maryland's preferential
primary which, on the Democratic side, Governor Mandel is
apparently seeking to change out of concern for the possible
candidacy of George Wallace. In the event that the primary law
is not changed, a party-line Democrat, Fred Wineland, Mandel's
Secretary of State, would determine who should be on the
Republican ballot. There is no support for Congressman McCloskey
from the party. But the Washington Post and the Montgomery County
Republican voter could have a field day with his candidacy in
a Maryland preferential. Neither the President nor the Vice
President has any party opposition whatsoever, although Mathias
obviously does not see eye-to-eye with either. Lankler got
the Maryland State Central Committee on record in support of a
Nixon-Agnew ticket in 1972. National Committeewoman Katherine
Massenburg is not strongly pro-Nixon, but National Committeeman
Allen is. A strong voice in western Maryl nd continues to be
D. Eldred Rinehart, a former national committeeman and now a
member of the Federal Renegotiation Board.
What To Do:
Lankler wants a citizens committee for the ticket. Milton
Eisenhower, the acting President of Johns Hopkins University,
was the citizens committee head for both Mathias and Glenn Beall
in their successful races. He would be a good choice for the
President. Another respected figure from the eastern shore,
Clarence Miles, a Democrat, was active for Senator Beall in the
recent campaign, and could be pro-Nixon on a citizens committee.
Md. - 4
Senator Beall is not taking a state-wide party-building
interest, but could be the most unifying force in the Maryland
picture today and would be a useful influence on Mathias. He
could also be an effective influence in the Prince Georges
situation.
Senator Beall might entertain a victorious return to Dundalk,
the eastern Baltimore County blue-collar Democratic bastion
which he earned following RN's appearance with him in the
1970 campaign. It would be in the nature: of a "thank you" for
supporting a Republican. The President should consider going
with him to dramatize: 1) he is still after the blue-collar
voter and 2) that voter can be won.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 21, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFEL
D.
Attached are copies of three recent memos to
John Mitchell and one to Harry Dent on the subject
of politics. In the future, I will send you carbon
copies.
DETERMINED TO BE AN
May 17, 1971
ADMINISTRATION VE MARKING
E.O. 100
By ip
02 6-102
3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR :
JOHN MITCHELL
FROM :
DONALD RUMSFELD
The attached memo answers the question we discussed the
other evening at dinner.
Attachment
DR/bw
WH files
MEMORANDUM
DETERMINED 10 BE AN
THE WHITE HOUSE
CMINISTRATIVE MARKING
WASHINGTON
12065, Section 6-100
By EP NARS, Date 3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
May 17, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFELD Xinh
DICK CHENEY
Max Fri edersdorf reports the following on Birch Bayh's
financing.
His number one money man is Miklos Sperling,777 North
Meridian Street, Indianapolis, Indiana.
Sperling heads the Merz Engineering Corporation, which
makes precision machine tools. He is a multi-millionaire,
operates out of Indianapolis and Miami Beach.
Sperling financed Birch Bayh's first Senate campaign, and is
now providing the money for the operation of Bayh's Washington
headquarters.
Max reports that Sperling "owns Bayh.' " He holds fund-raisers
for him at various places around the country, parades Bayh
around Indianapolis and Miami Beach and pays for Bayh's annual
vacations in Miami. He has done this for Bayh and his family
since Bayh was first elected to the U.S. Senate.
According to Max, the fact that Bayh's campaign is currently
well financed should not be taken to mean that large numbers of
people are contributing, merely that Sperling has made a
substantial investment and has been successful in getting a few
other friends to contribute. There has not been a groundswell of
Democratic money flowing to Bayh.
DETERMINED to BE AN
May 18, 1971
ADMINISTRATIVE AKING
E.O. 12065, Sect 54 6-102
By EP NAR, Date 3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFELD
I'm told that Percy has gotten agreement from Bill Graham,
head of Baxter Laboratories, to head up his fund raising effort
for the 1972 campaign. Bill Graham's one of the really fine
men in Illinois, very prominent industrialist in the drug
business and an energetic go-getter when it comes to raising
money. I'm told that Ogilvie is in the final throws of selecting
his fund raiser for the '72 campaign. That leads me to believe
that the competition is going to be fairly fierce in the state and
very likely will start early as far as Republican dollars go. This
tends to add impetus to any efforts we may anticipate undertaking
in the state with respect to fund raising.
DR: clfL 5-18-71
White House files.
JMitchell file.
DETERMINED TO 3S AN
May 18, 1971
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12035, Section 6-102
By EP
NAME, Date 3-17-82
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFELD
The latest I've heard is that Paul Simon may be the candidate
against Senator Percy. My guess is that he'd much prefer
to run against Ogilvie because he undoubtedly knows Percy
is stronger than Ogilvie and he's presently Lt. Governor.
I would assume that the reason that he seems to be the likely
candidate against Percy is because that is the office that
Mayor Daley will okay him for, which lends credence to the
thought that the candidate against Ogilvie may very well be
Foran. My guess is that Daley would prefer to have Foran
win and feels that Ogilvie is the waaker and also feels that
Simon will be a better candidate against Percy and probably
doesn't cotton to Simon too much.
DR: clf: 5-18-71
White House files.
DETERMINE 10 BE AM
ADMIN
WITHING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By OP
Date 3-17-82
April 15, 1971
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
HARRY DENT
FROM:
DONALD RUMSFELD
Has anyone given any thought to the possibility of utilizing
the Republican candidate who ran for Mayor against Mayor
Daley. He lost badly, but I understand that he ran a credible
campaign and has what today amounts to the only campaign
organization in the City of Chicago from a Republican stand-
point. It might be that either a fulltime appointment or some
sort of a parttime appointment would be a good move. Why
don't you give some thought to that. I don't know the man
at all.
DR/1g