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This file contains:
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: White House Budget/Committee for the Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972
From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Committee for the Re-Election Support. This document discusses financial support for the committee. 20 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972
From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Wallace…Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 2/14/1972
From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman. RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote." (Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 2/22/1972
From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/28/1972
From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State Digests. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 2/21/1972
To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling. Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General. RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South Dakota. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/1/1972
For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE: Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire primary vote. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/2/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document discusses the Senate races in the 33 states with large percentages of Republican voters. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/25/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General (bc: Bob Haldeman). This document discusses Govenor John West or South Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 29-2
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WHSF: Contested, 29-2
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This file contains:
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: White House Budget/Committee for the Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972
From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Committee for the Re-Election Support. This document discusses financial support for the committee. 20 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972
From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Wallace…Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 2/14/1972
From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman. RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote." (Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 2/22/1972
From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/28/1972
From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State Digests. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 2/21/1972
To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling. Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General. RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South Dakota. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/1/1972
For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE: Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire primary vote. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/2/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document discusses the Senate races in the 33 states with large percentages of Republican voters. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/25/1972
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General (bc: Bob Haldeman). This document discusses Govenor John West or South Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
29
2
2/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman.
RE: White House Budget/Committee for the
Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg.
29
2
2/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE:
Committee for the Re-Election Support.
This document discusses financial support
for the committee. 20 pg.
29
2
2/14/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE:
Wallace Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs.
29
2
2/22/1972
White House Staff
Memo
From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman.
RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote."
(Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs.
Friday, August 05, 2011
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
29
2
2/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman.
RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment
concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs.
29
2
2/21/1972
Domestic Policy
Memo
From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State
Digests. 3 pgs.
29
2
White House Staff
Other Document
To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling.
Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg.
29
2
3/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General.
RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South
Dakota. 2 pgs.
29
2
3/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE:
Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire
primary vote. 1 pg.
Friday, August 05, 2011
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
29
2
2/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE:
1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document
discusses the Senate races in the 33 states
with large percentages of Republican voters.
14 pgs.
29
2
2/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs.
29
2
2/25/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE:
1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs.
29
2
2/1/1972
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General
(bc: Bob Haldeman). This document
discusses Govenor John West or South
Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg.
Friday, August 05, 2011
Page 3 of 3
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: H. R. Haldeman
Box Number: 309
Folder:
Campaign 17 Book I Feb. 17-Mar. 3, ' 72
Document
Disposition
16
Retain
Open
17
Retain
Open
18
Return
Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2-16-72
19
Return
Private/Political Memo, Kehrli to HRH, 2-3-72
20
Return
Private/Political Ad, "wallace Nixon's in
n d. d.
21
Return
Private/Political Note, Rumsfeld to HRH, 2-22-72
22
Return
Private/Political Memo, Evans to HRH, 2-28-72
23
Return
Private/Political Memo, via De Bolt to Bauer, 2-21-72
24
Return
Private/Political Notes, "Cliff Miller," n.d.
25
Return
Private/Political Memo, Dent to the AG, 3-1-72
26
Return
Private/Political Memo to Mitchell E. HR4 3-2-72
27
Retain
Open
28
Retain
Open
29
Return
Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-24-72
30
Return
Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-24-72
31
Return
Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-25-72
32
Return
Private/Political Memo, Dent to the A.G, 2-28-72
33
Retain
Open
34
Return
Private/Political Notes, "Jack Gleason," n.d.
35
Retain
Open
G
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
February 16, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
White House Budget/
Committee for the Re-Election
of the President -- Support
You have Bruce Kehrli's January 29 memorandum regarding the
financial support for the White House by the Committee for the
Re-Election of the President. This memorandum is in your
talking paper drawer indicating that you wanted to cover the
subject personally with the Attorney General.
At your meeting today with the Attorney General and Fred Malek
it might be appropriate to discuss this budget subject
because Fred Malek will serve on the budget committee under
No
Secretary Stans at 1701.
Another alternative would be to have Malek discuss the OK
subject directly with the Attorney General.
or just have Bruce
guic it to Jeb -
then we can dusiness later
of aug people
ADMINISTRATIVELY
THE WHITE HOUSE
CONFIDENTIAL
WASHINGTON
H
February 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
BAK
G
SUBJECT:
Committee for the
Re-Election Support
On February 1, the source of financial support for the White House
shifted from the RNC to the Committee for the Re-Election of the
President.
The Attorney General has requested (via Jeb Magruder) a rough estimate
of the support that the White House will need in 1972.
I have met with Dwight Chapin, Harry Dent, Bill Timmons, Herb Klein,
Dick Howard, and Frank DeCosta of the Vice President's staff, to
discuss their financial needs for 1972. All agreed that any budget
estimate for the year should be divided into two parts -- one
covering expenses before the Convention and a second covering post
nomination costs.
The estimates for each of the categories are broken down as follows:
1. Presidential and First Family Travel -- The total
of $1,580,000 consists of $680,000 for transportation,
$500,000 for promotion of events and arrangements,
$350,000 for advanceman costs and $50,000 for official
gifts and photos. This last item includes the cost of
reproducing and distributing a new official photo. A
detailed summary and the rationale for these figures
are included at Tab A.
A pre and post convention breakdown shows:
Pre-Convention
Convention and
Total
Post Nomination
Transportation (use of AF-1,
Jetstars, Helos for political
events)
55,000*
625,000
680,000
Promotion
50,000
450,000
500,000
Advancemen costs
200,000
150,000
350,000
Office gifts/photos
25,000
25,000
50,000
Total
330,000
1,250,000
1,580,000
*Assuming total of 5 trips per month including President and
family members.
-2-
2. Staff -- The total of $100,000 will go for re-
imbursement to staff members who are carrying out
political business for the President. Bill Timmons,
Herb Klein, Harry Dent and John Dean will be receiving
most of the money. This also covers travel expenses
for non-political trips over and above the maximum
amount allowed by law. Also, we have cracked down
on staff members who had been reimbursed by outside
organizations for non-political events and generally
can expect to pick up more of their expenses.
3. Colson -- The $900,000 for the Colson office con-
sists of $660,000 for mailings and information retrieval,
$150,000 to expand his mailing lists and about $90,000
for "black" projects -- those that have to be done
outside the RNC. These costs cover only White House
requirements and not those of the Committee to Re-Elect
the President.
Normally the costs of expanding mailing lists and in-
formation retrieval would not be included in an "RNC"
Support budget; they would be hidden in another portion
of the RNC budget by mutual agreement between the White
House and RNC. However, since the RNC will be reimbursed
by the Committee for all costs incurred by the White House,
these are included to give the Attorney General a more
accurate picture of the actual expenses.
4. Vice President -- The Attorney General has requested
that no attempt be made to estimate the Vice President's
expenses until he has met with the Vice President to
determine his role in the campaign. The Attorney General
(per Magruder) requested that last year's estimate of
$50,000 be used for budget purposes until a more accurate
figure is determined.
This budget does not include White House polling expenses, which I
understand will be handled in another manner.
In past years we have submitted budget figures to the RNC that were
far under the actual estimates for the psychological advantage it
provided of minimizing the amount of direct support that the RNC
provided (summary at Tab B). This also put the RNC in a better
position vis-a-vis the amount of money they had to request from
the Finance Committee. Since the actual amounts provided were
always far above the budgeted amount and this year we're all on
the same team, I recommend that the actual estimate be submitted.
-3-
RECOMMENDATION:
That you approve submission of only the pre-convention budget
(Tab C) at this time and as plans for Presidential travel are
finalized, submit a convention and post nomination budget in
June.
APPROVE H - unless Ab wants whole
Submit whole budget breaget- if so, give it to
OTHER
him w/understanding it's a
very rough guess.
A
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
ADMINISTRATIVELY
WASHINGTON
CONFIDENTIAL
January 21, 1972
FOR:
BRUCE KEHRLI
FROM:
STEPHEN BULL
Dr
RE:
Political Budget for 1972
Following is a breakdown of expenses for Presidential activities
for 1972. For your information, but not for distribution to any
outside individual, I am providing you copies of the bases for
compilation of each of the below listed categories and budgets:
Political Budget for 1972
Presidential Activities - Jan. 20 - Aug. 20 $ 115,200.00
First Family Activities - Jan. 20 - Aug. 20
162,994.00
Advance Budget (Pre-Convention Seminar)
30,950.00
Convention and Campaign Activities
1,259,250.00
TOTAL $1,568,394.00
TRAVEL BUDGET FOR FIRST FAMILY
PRIOR TO CONVENTION
The following budget is based on these assumptions:
A) Julie and Tricia making four trips per month, and
trips averaging two (2) hours flying time.
B) Mrs. Nixon, one trip per month, averaging three (3)
hours flying time.
EXPENSE ESTIMATE
Transportation:
A) Jetstar -
Julie and Tricia (16 hrs/mo. X 6 mos. X $365/hr) = 35,040
B) C-137 (970, etc.)
Mrs. Nixon (3 hrs/mo X 6 mos. X $1173/hr) =
21,114
C) Busses (wild guess)
1,000
Total Transportation
$57,154.
Advancemen:
Assumption: Average advance three (3) days
Average number of advancemen: 2
Airfare - ($200/trip X 9 trips/mo X 6 mos X 2 A'men) 21,600
Hotel - (54 advances X 3 day/advance X 2 A'men X
$50/day)
16,200
Autos - (54 X 3 X 2 X $25/day)
8,100
Personal - - (54 X 3 X 2 X $25/day)
8,100
Misc. - - (54 X 3 X 2 X $10/day)
3,240
$57,240
-2-
Promotional Expenses:
Printing: $500 x 54 stops
27,000
Telephone: $300 X 54
16,200
Misc:
$100 X 54
5,400
48,600
TOTAL BUDGET:
$162,994.00
ADVANCE BUDGET PRIOR TO CONVENTION
The following is based on a projection of 15 domestic stops prior
to August 1, 1972
Assumption:
Average advance - 6 days
Average number of advancemen - 6
NOTE: Number of advancemen estimated high
because of training of new men.
Airfare:
$200.00 per trip (average) X 4 X 15
11
$ 12,000
Daily Expenses:
Hotel
$50.00
Autos
$25.00
Personal
$25.00
Misc.
$20.00
$120.00 X4X6X15
=
$ 43,200
Promotional
Printing
$3,000.00 X 15
=
$ 45,000
Expenses:
Telephone
$750.00 X 10
=
$ 7,500
Misc.
$500.00 X 15
=
$ 7,500
Total Advance Expenses:
$115,200
Seminar Expense:
The following is based on holding 5 seminars prior to June 1, each
seminar having 15 men invited and one grand refresher about mid
June for approximately 50 men.
Airfare:
12 men X 5 seminars X $200 per man
=
$ 12,000
50 men X 1 refresher X $200 per man
=
$ 10,000
Hotel:
120 men X 2 nights X $15.00/night
=
$ 3,600
Personal:
$15/day X 2 days X 120
=
$ 3,600
Refreshments & 5 X $200/seminar
=
$ 1,000
Reception:
1 Refresher
=
$ 750
Total Seminar Expenses:
$30,950
Political Budget for 1972 - CONNENTION ANd CAMPAIGN
Principal Categories of Expense
Transportation
Advancemen:
Campaign
Convention
WHCA
Promotional Expenses
The Event
Miscellaneous
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Miscellaneous Facts and Figures
(a)
Air transportation expenses - 1970 (Oct. and Nov. ):
President, First Family, A.G., Bob Finch - $105,000
(excluding food and beverage of approximately $4, 000).
(b) There was a charge only for the principal's (i.e., President
or First Family member) aircraft.
(c)
Backup plane should not be used for political purposes or
carry any political people. However, when the Spirit of '76
is used politically, it can carry anyone the President wants
whether it be a County Chairman or U.S. Senator.
- 2 -
(d)
Cost breakdown of planes:
C-137 (e.g., #26000) - $1173/hour
Jet Star - $365/hour
Convair - $290/hour
Helicopters - $260/hour
(e) If any aircraft other than the President's aircraft is used for
political purposes, which by law it should not, theoretically
we should be charged the commercial rate. For a C-137 this
would be $3,000 per hour.
(f)
In 1968 the President travelled to 79 cities, covering 50, 083 air miles.
Assumptions
(a) Much of the time members of the First Family will be
doing their political travelling independently, utilizing
separate aircraft.
(b) For planning purposes, we can figure 50% of the 1968 activity
which comes out to 40 cities and 25, 000 miles.
(c) Although theoretically most of the costs of an event are borne
by the locals, 60% ends up being paid by the National Committee.
(d) All Presidential travel up until the Convention is non-political.
*
*
*
- 3 -
Expense Estimate - 1972
Transportation Expense
(a)
Spirit of '76 - (25,000 miles) -
500 hours at $1173/hour:
$586,500
(b)
Food and beverage:
10,000
( (c)
Mrs. Nixon (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.) ):
7,300
JetStar (
$365/
( (d)
Julie (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.):
7,300
Hour (
( (e)
Tricia (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.):
7,300
(f)
Helicopters ($260/hour - 25 hrs.):
6,500
(g) Busses:
1,500
Total $626,400
- 4 -
Advancemen Expense - 1972
Campaign
Assumption: Average advance - 6 days
Average number of advancemen - 3
Airfare - round trip - (average):
$ 200
Advancemon
Following expenses per day.
Hotel (6 days - $50/day):
300
Car Rental (6 days - $25/day):
150
Office equipment:
50
Telephone:
15
Miscellaneous (tips, taxies) -
(6 days at $10/day):
60
Personal (6 days at $25/day):
150
$ 925 per advance
x3 advancemen
$2,775 X 40 stops
Campaign Advancemen - Total $111,000
Convention - August 21-25
July 15-Aug. 25 (41 days) - 5 Advancemen
205 Advanceman Days
August 1-25 (25 days) - 5 Advancemen
125 Advanceman Days
August 16-25 (10 days) - 20 Advancemen
200 Advanceman Days
Total
530 Advanceman Days
$ 95/day
Daily expenses for all advancemen:
$50,350
Transportation ($200 - 30 advancemen):
6,000
Total Advancemen costs for Convention - -
$56,350
Advanceman costs/day
Hotel -
$50
Personal -
25
Tips & Taxics - 10
Miscellaneous - 10
$95/day/advanceman
CAMPAIGN ADVANCEMEN: $111,000
CONVENTION ADVANCEMEN:
56,350
TOTAL ADVANCEMEN
$167,350
$ 167,350
- 5 -
WHCA Expense 1972
For political purposes, the local Committee bears the cost for
audio-visual only. As President, we are entitled to radio and
telephone support. The range for audio-visual would be $2,000 -
$3,000 per event. $2500 for a workable average.
40 cities at $2500 apiece: $100,000
Total: $100,000
- 6 -
Promotional Expenses
(50% reduction applies) - 1972
(a) Handbills & Tickets -
($4,000/event - 40 events):
$160,000
(b) Telephone (25 phones - 3 days) -
($750/event - 40 events):
30,000
(c) Radio, TV advertising and
Newspaper advertising -
($1500/event - 40 events):
60,000
(d) Invitations -
($1750/event - 20 events):
35,000
(e) Miscellaneous (e.g., sound
trucks) -
($1000/event - 40 events):
40,000
$325,000
-50%
Total $162,500
- 7 -
The Event Expense (50% reduction applies) - 1972
(a) Hall rentals -
($1200/event - 40 events):
$ 48,000
(b) Platform construction -
($1000/event - 40 events):
40,000
(c) Bands -- ($200/event - 20 events):
4,000
(d) Color materials -
($1000/event - 40 events):
40,000
(e) Courtesy ushers -
($1500/event - 40 events):
60,000
(f) Miscellaneous -
($1000/event - 40 events):
40,000
$232,000
-50%
Total $116,000
- 8 -
Miscellaneous - 1972
Gifts:
$ 15,000
TOO Low 26K IN 1971
Donations:
SOK IS MOME REALISTIC
B.K.
(a) $200/event - 35 events - $7,000
42,000
(b) $7,000/event - - 5 events - $35,000
Salaries: (10 men for 2 months -
$1500/month):
30,000
Total $87,000
- 9 -
Total Political Budget for 1972
Transportation
$ 626,400
Advancemen
167,350
WHCA
100,000
Promotional Expenses
162,500
The Event
116,000
Miscellaneous
87,000
TOTAL
$1,259,250
RNC BUDGET SUPPORT
1970
1971
Estimate
Actual
Estimate
Actual
(thru. Nov.
I. Presidential and
(5)
First Family Travel
$200,000
200,000
200,000
36,000
II. Staff Support
95,000
76,000
100,000
130,000
III. Colson's
Mailing Operation
330,000
690,000
750,000
300,000
IV. V.P. Travel
100,000
350,000
50,000
96,000
V.
12,000 (1)
15,000 (2)
VI.
n/a
26,000 (3)
725,000 1,328,000
1,100,000 (6)
603,000
Acct. Ø
40,000 (4)
108,000 (4)
Total
725,000 1,368,000
1,100,000
711,000
NOTES
1. Activity V added to take care of Cabinet expenses related to the
campaign that were not picked up by the departments or agencies.
2. Account V was set up to pay campaign '70 expenses that were
carried over into 1971.
3. Account VI covered the salaries of the people on the RNC staff
working for the Citizens' Committee for the Re-Election of the
President before it was announced and became a separate entity.
4. Account Ø is the cash account which has been used for expenses
that couldnot be carried in another account for fear of audit.
The large increase in this account for 1971 is due to the fact
that all expenses related to a White House staff member were
handled in account Ø so that if the RNC's accounts were audited,
there would be no record of them paying for a White House staff
member's political expenses.
5. Books for December have not been closed yet because of delay of
about one month in receiving bills.
6. The dollar amount requested was $700,000 as some costs were buried
in other parts of the RNC Budget. The figure accepted by the
RNC was $500,000.
C
BUDGET FOR 1972
Convention and
Pre-Convention
Post Nomination
Total
I. President and
330,000
1,250,000
1,580,000
First Family Travel
II. Staff Support
50,000
50,000
100,000
III. Colson's Mailing
300,000
600,000
900,000
Operation
IV. V.P. Travel
50,000
50,000
TOTAL
730,000
1,900,000
2,636,000
0
For your information.
No acknowledgment necessary.
C.Y. Rebozo
WALLACE
Why is George Wallace running in our state's Demo-
cratic presidential primary?
One pretty obvious reason is to milk all the publicity
he can get out of it. He says he's serious about seeking
RIXON'S
the Democratic nomination. But who does he think he's
kidding?
He knows he can't become the Democratic candidate
for President. In fact, he plans to run for President as his
own party's candidate-the American Independent Party.
FLORIDA
The fact is, he wants to throw a monkey-wrench into
the Democratic primary.
He's Richard Nixon's fixer in Florida.
He wants to make such a shambles of the Florida Demo-
FIXER
cratic primary that Nixon can come in and mop up the
remains next November, and win Florida's electoral vote.
Wallace is trying the same stunt in other states.
He did it in 1968, remember? And he helped fix it so
Richard Nixon would be President. He took just enough
votes from Hubert Humphrey in states like California, Ohio,
New Jersey, Missouri and Illinois to hand Nixon the
Presidency.
And Wallace is still boasting about that:
"
Our movement
was effective enough to defeat
Mr. Humphrey for the Presidency of the United States."
This is what Wallace himself said in Atlanta, Ga., Nov. 9, 1971.
So, it comes down to this
A Vote for Wallace in March
Is A Vote for NiXon in November
Do you want to use your vote that way?
FLORIDA AFL-CIO
CHARLIE HARRIS
ART HALLGREN
WM. E. ALLEN
PRESIDENT
FIRST VICE-PRESIDENT
SECRETARY-TREASURER
URGENT
TO EVERY AFL-CIO MEMBER
Florida afl-cio
Non-Profit
Organization
U. S. POSTAGE
PAID
AFFILIATED WITH AMERICAN FEDERATION OF LABOR
AND CONGRESS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS
Tampa, Florida
Permit No. 462
P.O. BOX 7097
TAMPA, FLORIDA 33603
6
"YOUR DEDICATED DOLLAR
101-1326
AT WORK"
E.R. HARTMAN
-
6732 PANSY DR.
W. HOLLYWOOD, FL 33023
JANUARY, 1972
"Hand in Hand Florida
Grows with Organized Labor"
"WE have a JOB
to DO!!"
UL,
RECEIVED FEB 14 1972
C.G. Rebozo
MIAMI
7
NATIONAL
Pivi
KEY BISCAYNE BANK BUILDING
CHILDREN'S
KEY BISCAYNE, FLORIDA 33149
INFEB
DEN CHEACH EEK
1972
Mr. H. R. Halderman
The White House
Washington, D. C.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 22, 1972
MEMORADNUM FOR:
BOB HALDEMAN
FROM:
DONALD 'RUMSFELD
For your information.
4 CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, Thurs., Feb. 17, 1972
14,000 youths
sign up to vote
An estimated 14,000 persons between 18 and
21 qualified to vote during a special registra-
tion day in Cook County suburbs, it was an-
nounced Wednesday.
Thomas King, supervisor of the election di-
vision of Cook County Clerk Edward J. Bar-
rett's office, said between 18,000 and 20,000
persons registered Tuesday at 95 special sub-
urban locations and that about 70 per cent of
them were newly enfranchised young people.
King estimated that there are 90,000 to 100,-
000 persons aged 18 to 21 who live in suburban
areas under the county clerk's jurisdiction.
That includes all of Cook County except the
communities of Cicero, Berwyn Lyons and
Stickney, which fall under the Chicago Board
of Election Commissioners. The board will
hold a registration day at all 3,372 polling
places next Tuesday.
Before Tuesday's registration at special lo-
cations, mostly in high schools, 39,000 young
people had registered to vote. New regis-
trants are qualified to vote in the March 21
primary election.
Republican
National
Committee.
Thomas B. Evans, Jr., Co-Chairman
February 28, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HON. H. R. HALDEMAN
Thought you might be interested in the attached which
is a follow up to our initial memo of January 31 on registra-
tion efforts.
Tom lians
mim
attachment
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
Republican
National
Committee.
February 24, 1972
TO:
CO-CHAIRMAN TOM EVANS
FROM:
ED DeBOLT RD
RE:
REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION
Even though spring is about a month away, GOP
organizations around the country are already responding to the call for
early registration efforts. Evidence is in that state and local Republican
organizations, at their own expense, have conducted successful pilot
projects or have geared up their existing apparatus to increase the rolls
of registered Republicans. These pre-spring pilot projects and registration
drives by Republican Party organizations have resulted in over 85,000 new
Republican registrations around the country. Even more encouraging is
the response by state and local Party leadership to the call from Attorney
General Mitchell and the Republican national leadership to make plans and
set dates for spring registration drives. Every day the Party comes closer
to reaching our first goal of causing substantial spring registration activity
throughout the country. To date, 35 states, including 80 major counties,
have committed their Party organizations to this activity. By the close of
the Leadership Conference next week, all 50 states should be involved.
State and county Republican Party organizations in
FLORIDA and TEXAS have completed several successful pilot registration
projects, utilizing the RNC TARGET '72 blitz day techniques for recruiting
the volunteers necessary to conduct these registration drives. In Duval
County, Florida, where registration is seven to one Democrat and where a
very weak Republican organization was floundering, and in Pinellas County,
a Republican county where the Republican registration percentage is very
high, 200 new Republican workers were recruited to conduct registration
drives in targeted precincts where over 6,000 households were contacted
and 1, 500 unregistered favorable Republican were uncovered. These were
registered prior to registration closing for the Florida Presidential primary.
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
Page Two.
On February 19, the Harris County (Houston)
Republican organization turned out 220 new Republican workers in the
first of a series of weekend efforts and they contacted 8, 658 households.
This drive resulted in 2, 500 new Republican registrations, an average of
more than 10 registrations per volunteer working on blitz day.
The results from other Republican Party organization-
caused registration activities include the following:
FLORIDA Chairman Tommy Thomas reports
that the State Party's "one and one" registration program has
had a net gain of approximately 6,000 Republican voters. Ken
Rietz reports that The Committee's registration activities in
Orange County resulted in approximately 3, 000 favorable
registrations and Party efforts in Brevard and Dade Counties
have resulted in 3, 100 new GOP registrations since the
beginning of the year.
In Dallas, TEXAS the Party's on-going registration
effort has caused 15, 800 favorable unregistered voters to join
the Republican ranks there this winter.
The Party organization in NORTH CAROLINA,
under former Chairman Jim Holshouser and newly-elected
State Chairman Frank Rouse, has produced a net gain of almost
5, 300 new Republican registrations since December.
Republican Mayor Ralph Perk's victory in
November has put new life into the Cuyahoga County, OHIO
Republican organization and almost 21, 000 new Republicans
have been registered since the November election and the
implementation of their precinct registration effort.
Davidson and Shelby Counties in TENNESSEE
report 5, 900 and 1, 100, respectively, new Republican registrations
since the first of the year.
State Chairman Harry Rosenzweig in ARIZONA
reports that the Party has responded well to the state's re-
registration requirements and for the first time Republicans
lead Democrats in populous Maricopa County registration
figures. Ten thousand new Republicans have been registered
since February 1.
Page Three.
In CALIFORNIA, a heavy emphasis on the importance
of registration has been stressed and under the nominal direction
of State Chairman Put Livermore many additi mal registration
drives will be launched. In San Diego, more than 3, 200 new
favorable voters were registered in connection with the 76th
Assembly District Special Election. In the Smith Los Angeles
area, what little regular Party organization there is has
produced approximately 4, 000 new Republican registrations.
An additional 9, 000 GOP registrations have been caused by
local Party activity in San Mateo, Orange, ramento and
San Francisco Counties.
In NEBRASKA, Executive Director Glenn Wilson
has conducted a small-scale local pilot project to test techniques
for statewide spring registration drives and on one day registered
200 new Republicans.
Below are listed a sample of schoduled drives in
some of the top states.
MARYLAND - pilot projects have been scheduled
in the four largest counties on March 18 and April 1 with a
statewide registration blitz day on May 20.
INDIANA - ten of the top counties will conduct
pilot project blitz days on April 1 prior to the April 3 registration
closing date. A statewide blitz day will be Set following the
May 2 primary.
OHIO - State Chairman John And, ews is firmly
committed to a massive statewide registration program
immediately following the May 2 primary in which the Party
organization will undergo reorganization.
TENNESSEE - registration drives have been
announced for the seven largest counties for June 19 through
June 23 and negotiations are now underway to "ause earlier
drives in several of these counties and some of the smaller
counties.
Page Four.
NORTH CAROLINA - State Chairman Frank Rouse
has announced plans to conduct several TARGET '72 pilot
registration projects in late March and then immediately set
a statewide registration blitz day following the completion of
the pilot projects.
FLORIDA - follow-up projects are already underway
in Pinellas and Duval Counties and following the March 14 primary
it is anticipated that the statewide registration effort will get
underway.
VIRGINIA - pilot projects are scheduled in
Northern Virginia for late March to be followed by statewide
regional seminars. Following the seminars, early
registration days and drives will be scheduled by the local
Party organizations.
TEXAS - in addition to the Dallas and Houston
projects, the State Committee has announced a neighbor-to-
neighbor program to cause registration throughout the state.
This program is now in operation and the results should be
available in the next report. Another TARGET '72 pilot
project is being conducted in Fort Worth by Tarrant County
Chairman Ed Palm on March 4.
MISSOURI - registration seminars are planned early
in March in preparation for a statewide registration drive in
April and May.
WISCONSIN - the State Party has indicated an
interest in the TARGET '72 registration techniques and
negotiations are underway to launch early statewide regis-
tration drives.
MICHIGAN - a pilot project is scheduled for
Lansing in the last week of April as the snow clears. Following
the project a statewide registration drive will be scheduled.
CONNECTICUT - the State Committee has scheduled
their registration drives to begin March 1 and run through the
end of April. TARGET '72 techniques will be used in selected
areas.
Page Five.
HAWAII - an emphasis on registration has
been announced by the State Committee and registration
drives are underway now to be concluded by mid -June.
COLORADO - current registration plans call
for concentrated drives in the ten major counties following
Party reorganization in May. Considerable campus activity
has already occurred with Republicans gaining over 38 percent
of the new voters.
ILLINOIS - using a modified MISSION 70's concept,
the Illinois Party is planning and implementing spring registration
programs downstate. In cooperation with the Nixon, Percy and
Ogilvie organizations, concentrated efforts in the early summer
will be held in Cook County and other Northern Illinois counties.
IOWA - Steve Robinson, State Executive Director,
has planned an elaborate registration program which will
begin by April 1, 1972.
KENTUCKY - spring registration campaigns in
Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort are currently being planned
by Gordon Wade, State Executive Director.
MONTANA - Fred Caruso, State Executive Director,
has planned an extensive and ambitious statewide registration
drive beginning April 27. In preparation for this a series of
eleven registration training meetings and seminars will be held
around the state beginning March 15. TARGET '72 techniques
are being heavily stressed.
NEW JERSEY - conversations with John Dimon,
State Chairman, and Barbara Curran, Executive Director, are
underway with the objective of defining large county-wide
drives to begin April 1, 1972. Plans will be finalized by March 9.
Approximately six counties have been targeted.
NEW YORK - Bill Wyer of the State Committee
indicates that MISSION 70's spring registration drives are currently
planned throughout most of the state. Back-up programs modeled
after TARGET '72 techniques will be used in weak areas.
Page Six.
PENNSYLVANIA - plans are being made for
extensive registration drives following the April 6 primary
election. Major emphasis is being placed upon spring drives
which will concentrate in target counties.
WASHINGTON - a statewide voter identification
and registration drive will be completed by July 1.
Heavy emphasis will be placed on the importance of
early registration by state and local Party organizations at the March 1
Leadership Conference in Washington, D. C., where more than 1, 000
Party leaders are expected to gather. The national leadership of
Republican auxiliaries, such as the Young Republicans, National Federation
of Republican Women and College Republicans, has enthusiastically endorsed
the Party's effort to cause registration. The leadership of these auxiliaries
is now articulating the importance of registration and urging their members
to participate to the fullest in causing the Party to be successful in its
efforts.
The Republican National Committee's TARGET '72
registration operation has established regional coordinating desks to
continue to encourage and educate state and local Party organizations to
the importance of early registration efforts. Through these coordinating
desks we will be able to determine the status of registration activities in
the various states and follow the Party's response to the challenge of the
national leadership to cause a substantial increase in the Party's membership.
This operation can continuously pinpoint areas where the Party is either
unwilling or unable to perform its assigned tasks of registration and cause
appropriate follow-up.
The next complete registration report will be
issued on March 10.
/jrg
Republican
National
Committee.
February 24, 1972
TO:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
ED DeBOLT
RE:
REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION
Even though spring is about a month away, GOP
organizations around the country are already responding to the call for
early registration efforts. Evidence is in that state and local Republican
organizations, at their own expense, have conducted successful pilot
projects or have geared up their existing apparatus to increase the rolls
of registered Republicans. These pre-spring pilot projects and registration
drives by Republican Party organizations have resulted in over 85, 000 new
Republican registrations around the country. Even more encouraging is
the response by state and local Party leadership to the call from Attorney
General Mitchell and the Republican national leadership to make plans and
set dates for spring registration drives. Every day the Party comes closer
to reaching our first goal of causing substantial spring registration activity
throughout the country. To date, 35 states, including 80 major counties,
have committed their Party organizations to this activity. By the close of
the Leadership Conference next week, all 50 states should be involved.
State and county Republican Party organizations in
FLORIDA and TEXAS have completed several successful pilot registration
projects, utilizing the RNC TARGET '72 blitz day techniques for recruiting
the volunteers necessary to conduct these registration drives. In Duval
County, Florida, where registration is seven to one Democrat and where a
very weak Republican organization was floundering, and in Pinellas County,
a Republican county where the Republican registration percentage is very
high, 200 new Republican workers were recruited to conduct registration
drives in targeted precincts where over 6, 000 households were contacted
and 1, 500 unregistered favorable Republican were uncovered. These were
registered prior to registration closing for the Florida Presidential primary.
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
Page Two.
On February 19, the Harris County (Houston)
Republican organization turned out 220 new Republican workers in the
first of a series of weekend efforts and they contacted 8, 658 households.
This drive resulted in 2, 500 new Republican registrations, an average of
more than 10 registrations per volunteer working on blitz day.
The results from other Republican Party organization-
caused registration activities include the following:
FLORIDA Chairman Tommy Thomas reports
that the State Party's "one and one" registration program has
had a net gain of approximately 6, 000 Republican voters. Ken
Rietz reports that The Committee's registration activities in
Orange County resulted in approximately 3, 000 favorable
registrations and Party efforts in Brevard and Dade Counties
have resulted in 3, 100 new GOP registrations since the
beginning of the year.
In Dallas, TEXAS the Party's on-going registration
effort has caused 15, 800 favorable unregistered voters to join
the Republican ranks there this winter.
The Party organization in NORTH CAROLINA,
under former Chairman Jim Holshouser and newly-elected
State Chairman Frank Rouse, has produced a net gain of almost
5, 300 new Republican registrations since December.
Republican Mayor Ralph Perk's victory in
November has put new life into the Cuyahoga County, OHIO
Republican organization and almost 21, 000 new Republicans
have been registered since the November election and the
implementation of their precinct registration effort.
Davidson and Shelby Counties in TENNESSEE
report 5, 900 and 1, 100, respectively, new Republican registrations
since the first of the year.
State Chairman Harry Rosenzweig in ARIZONA
reports that the Party has responded well to the state's re-
registration requirements and for the first time Republicans
lead Democrats in populous Maricopa County registration
figures. Ten thousand new Republicans have been registered
since February 1.
Page Three.
In CALIFORNIA, a heavy emphasis on the importance
of registration has been stressed and under the nominal direction
of State Chairman Put Livermore many additional registration
drives will be launched. In San Diego, more than 3, 200 new
favorable voters were registered in connection with the 76th
Assembly District Special Election. In the south Los Angeles
area, what little regular Party organization there is has
produced approximately 4, 000 new Republican registrations.
An additional 9, 000 GOP registrations have been caused by
local Party activity in San Mateo, Orange, Sacramento and
San Francisco Counties.
In NEBRASKA, Executive Director Glenn Wilson
has conducted a small-scale local pilot project to test techniques
for statewide spring registration drives and on one day registered
200 new Republicans.
Below are listed a sample of scheduled drives in
some of the top states.
MARYLAND - pilot projects have been scheduled
in the four largest counties on March 18 and April 1 with a
statewide registration blitz day on May 20.
INDIANA - ten of the top counties will conduct
pilot project blitz days on April 1 prior to the April 3 registration
closing date. A statewide blitz day will be set following the
May 2 primary.
OHIO - State Chairman John Andrews is firmly
committed to a massive statewide registration program
immediately following the May 2 primary in which the Party
organization will undergo reorganization.
TENNESSEE - registration drives have been
announced for the seven largest counties for June 19 through
June 23 and negotiations are now underway to cause earlier
drives in several of these counties and some of the smaller
counties.
Page Four.
NORTH CAROLINA - State Chairman Frank Rouse
has announced plans to conduct several TARGET '72 pilot
registration projects in late March and then immediately set
a statewide registration blitz day following the completion of
the pilot projects.
FLORIDA - follow-up projects are already underway
in Pinellas and Duval Counties and following the March 14 primary
it is anticipated that the statewide registration effort will get
underway.
VIRGINIA - pilot projects are scheduled in
Northern Virginia for late March to be followed by statewide
regional seminars. Following the seminars, early
registration days and drives will be scheduled by the local
Party organizations.
TEXAS - in addition to the Dallas and Houston
projects, the State Committee has announced a neighbor-to-
neighbor program to cause registration throughout the state.
This program is now in operation and the results should be
available in the next report. Another TARGET '72 pilot
project is being conducted in Fort Worth by Tarrant County
Chairman Ed Palm on March 4.
MISSOURI - registration seminars are planned early
in March in preparation for a statewide registration drive in
April and May.
WISCONSIN - the State Party has indicated an
interest in the TARGET '72 registration techniques and
negotiations are underway to launch early statewide regis-
tration drives.
MICHIGAN - a pilot project is scheduled for
Lansing in the last week of April as the snow clears. Following
the project a statewide registration drive will be scheduled.
CONNECTICUT - the State Committee has scheduled
their registration drives to begin March 1 and run through the
end of April. TARGET '72 techniques will be used in selected
areas.
Page Five.
HAWAII - an emphasis on registration has
been announced by the State Committee and registration
drives are underway now to be concluded by mid-June.
COLORADO - current registration plans call
for concentrated drives in the ten major counties following
Party reorganization in May. Considerable campus activity
has already occurred with Republicans gaining over 38 percent
of the new voters.
ILLINOIS - using a modified MISSION 70's concept,
the Illinois Party is planning and implementing spring registration
programs downstate. In cooperation with the Nixon, Percy and
Ogilvie organizations, concentrated efforts in the early summer
will be held in Cook County and other Northern Illinois counties.
IOWA - Steve Robinson, State Executive Director,
has planned an elaborate registration program which will
begin by April 1, 1972.
KENTUCKY - spring registration campaigns in
Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort are currently being planned
by Gordon Wade, State Executive Director.
MONTANA - Fred Caruso, State Executive Director,
has planned an extensive and ambitious statewide registration
drive beginning April 27. In preparation for this a series of
eleven registration training meetings and seminars will be held
around the state beginning March 15. TARGET '72 techniques
are being heavily stressed.
NEW JERSEY - conversations with John Dimon,
State Chairman, and Barbara Curran, Executive Director, are
underway with the objective of defining large county-wide
drives to begin April 1, 1972. Plans will be finalized by March 9.
Approximately six counties have been targeted.
NEW YORK - Bill Wyer of the State Committee
indicates that MISSION 70's spring registration drives are currently
planned throughout most of the state. Back-up programs modeled
after TARGET '72 techniques will be used in weak areas.
Page Six.
PENNSYLVANIA - plans are being made for
extensive registration drives following the April 6 primary
election. Major emphasis is being placed upon spring drives
which will concentrate in target counties.
WASHINGTON - a statewide voter identification
and registration drive will be completed by July 1.
Heavy emphasis will be placed on the importance of
early registration by state and local Party organizations at the March 1
Leadership Conference in Washington, D. C., where more than 1, 000
Party leaders are expected to gather. The national leadership of
Republican auxiliaries, such as the Young Republicans, National Federation
of Republican Women and College Republicans, has enthusiastically endorsed
the Party's effort to cause registration. The leadership of these auxiliaries
is now articulating the importance of registration and urging their members
to participate to the fullest in causing the Party to be successful in its
efforts.
The Republican National Committee's TARGET '72
registration operation has established regional coordinating desks to
continue to encourage and educate state and local Party organizations to
the importance of early registration efforts. Through these coordinating
desks we will be able to determine the status of registration activities in
the various states and follow the Party's response to the challenge of the
national leadership to cause a substantial increase in the Party's membership.
This operation can continuously pinpoint areas where the Party is either
unwilling or unable to perform its assigned tasks of registration and cause
appropriate follow-up.
The next complete registration report will be
issued on March 10.
/jrg
Republican
National
Committee.
February 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FROM:
Gary Bauer
VIA:
Ed DeBolt
State Digests &
RE:
This is the first in
a series of bi-monthly reports which will serve
to highlight state developments affecting and
relating to delegate selection of the Democratic
Party.
These reports will
provide only a brief overview and are supplemented
by the more detailed individual state reports on
delegate selection that are issued as each state
completes its delegate selection process.
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
RNC RESEARCH DIVISION
FEBRUARY 17, 1972
DEMOCRAT DELEGATE HUNT
STATE DIGEST
ALABAMA
- The Democratic Executive Committee ended
any possibility that George Wallace would be
on the ticket in November in that state as a
Democrat. (as he was in 1968) Nine electors
were handpicked, pledged to cast their votes
for the nominee of the convention in Miami.
ARIZONA & IOWA
- Larry O'Brien is pleased with the participa-
pation in the Democrat precinct caucuses in
these two states. 36,00 participated in the
former, 40,000 in the latter.
CALIFORNIA
- Democrats held 387 mini-conventions on Feb-
ruary 12th to unofficially pick delegates
to put on the slates of each of the contenders
in the primary. Observers noted that Hubert
Humphrey's turnout lagged behind that of his
opponents. McGovern and Muskie were in a
"dead heat" for the lead in participation
by Democrats.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
- The one place in the country where the Democrat
reform effort is being openly ignored is in the
nation's Capital. Walter Fauntroy, running
as a favorite son has effectively deprived
residents of the city of a chance to vote
for other Democrats. No other candidate wants
to buck Fauntroy's machine.
MICHIGAN
- The odds are that Governor Milliken of Michigan
will sign into law soon a bill establishing a
Presidential Primary in that state (May 16).
After the bill goes into effect, nine of the
largest 10 states in the country will have
primaries. (Texas is the only exception)
The bill is supported by Democrats in the state
because their party procedures were not in com-
pliance with the McGovern Commission reforms.
MINNESOTA
- Precinct caucuses will be on February 22nd -
look for them to be an early indication of
whether McCarthy has any residual strength.
MISSISSIPPI
- Governor Waller signed into law a bill
increasing the size of the Democratic state
executive committee from 15 to 25. The
Governor will try to come to terms with re-
formers in his state by offering blacks some
of the seats. The ploy probably won't work.
Governor Waller and his "regular" Democrats
still haven't agreed to support the nominee
of the party in Miami.
X
Cliff Miller
Logal Free - wf Rocaefeller
P personally doing well,
Rec- must be re -elected
50-50; a hard compaign
must contribute
whe made polling info and
te Free for private
WH analysis can.
x
March 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT ASD
SUBJECT:
Candidacy of Ben Reifel,
of South Dakota
BACKGROUND
Ben Reifel is considering running for Mundt's Senate
seat in South Dakota. He has not made a final decision
and has been contacting old Washington friends for their
advice. It has evidently been mixed. I have contacted
party officials and some of those concerned here in
Washington.
ANALYSIS
Reifel was a Member of Congress for ten years. He
did not seek re-election in 1970 in order to be with his
wife. She died recently and he has been urged by many
"friends" to seek the GOP nomination for the U. S. Senate.
There are advantages and disadvantages to his entering the
primary race.
A. Advantages:
1. He can win the primaries without difficulty.
Reifel was popular in S. D. and constantly ran
ahead of the rest of the party.
2. He can probably win the Senate seat, though
it could be tough.
3. He would be a good candidate, according to
many observers.
Page 2
The Attorney General
March 1, 1972
B. Disadvantages:
1. There are currently five contenders for the
GOP nomination (three announced). All are
evidently quite committed.
2. Reifel could be an extremely divisive influence.
It is doubtful the schisms would heal well.
3. Reifel is 66. This is the age at which Mundt
last ran. Age would be the Democrats' chief issue
and it would be a good one.
The consensus of most party people is that he should not
seek the Senate seat, though some have urged him to do so.
Nearly everyone I contacted would like to see him run for
the Governor's office. Everyone thought he could easily
win and would not divide S. D. Republicans in the process.
Evidently, Ben is not as interested in the Gubernatorial race
as in the Senate.
RECOMMENDATION
The consensus seemed to be that Reifel ought to be
dissuaded from running for Mundt's seat, but urge him to
consider the Gubernatorial race.
The people who could best approach him would be Bob Dole or
Jerry Ford. Reifel has great confidence in them.
bcc:
H. R. Haldeman
March 2, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIV
ANG
CONFIDENTIAL
E.O. 12065, Section 0-102
By CP
NAR, Date 3-29-82
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN MITCHELL
BOB HALDEMAN
A friend of mine in Arkansas had lunch with Wilbur Mills
this week. Wilbur showed him a poll indicating that he,
Wilbur Mills, would get between 20 and 30 per cent of the
New Hampshire primary vote. That is all I know, but
it sounded high to me and I thought you might be interested.
DR:mel
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent AZO
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Senate Races
Since the last report, our potential seems to have slipped
in Virginia and Kentucky and picked up in New Mexico.
At present, the Senate lineup is 55-45 (Byrd as a Demo-
crat). If we win 19 of the 33 seats up and Byrd comes
over, we can still start 1973 with a net gain of one, as
reported last time.
Roudebush has won a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that he
can get a recount in 11 counties on his 1970 loss to Hartke
by 4,283 votes. Thus, there is a small chance we could
get another seat if the Senate buys the recount results.
GOP Sure (10) -- Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, New Jersey, Texas,
Massachusetts, Tennessee, Illinois, South Carolina and
Wyoming.
GOP Possible (9) -- Nebraska, Maine, Colorado, Delaware,
Kansas, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico and Rhode Island.
Democrat Sure (6) -- Alabama, Mississippi, West Virginia,
Minnesota, Louisiana and Arkansas.
Democrat Possible (8) -- South Dakota, Oklahoma, Georgia,
North Carolina, New Hampshire, Montana, Virginia and
Kentucky.
page 2
ALASKA: GOP Sure, Stevens (R)
There has been no appreciable change in the Stevens race.
He should win. There still remains the possibility of a
challenge from C. R. Lewis, a Bircher. Lewis has been
a leading vote-getter in Anchorage for the State Senate.
Democrat opposition will come from U.S. Representative
Nick Begich, or Speaker Gene Guess. Guess is very well
liked and has never lost an election, but has never run
statewide. Begich could make it a tight race, but probably
wants to wait for Gravel's seat in 1974.
The pipeline is still the most critical issue, though the
Native Land Claims Act has helped (some conservatives
are upset).
IDAHO: GOP Sure, Jordan (R)
The situation has not appreciably changed. Jordan has an-
nounced his retirement, Congressman Jim McClure appears
way out front. A poll taken last fall indicated that McClure,
Congressman Hansen (won't run) and former Governor Smylie
in that order, were favored for the Senate seat. George
Hansen has resigned his position at USDA to run, but has not
announced. Smylie is showing some activity but with little
apparent success. Bill Bergeson, a political unknown from
Pocatello, has announced, as has Glen Wegner, of Finch's
staff. Samuelson is definitely not a candidate. He hopes to
run against Church in 1974.
The best contender likely to emerge among the Democrats is
W. E. "Bud" Davis, President of Idaho State University.
Edward Williams, AA to Governor Andrus, has decided to
run for McClure's House seat. Attorney General Tony Park
and State Legislator Vernon Ravenscroft are also interested
in the Senate race. McClure should win,
page 3
IOWA: GOP Sure, Miller (R)
Miller is looking good. He currently has no primary oppo-
sition. The Cherokee Times recently conducted two polls,
one among high school seniors and the other among 3% of
the adult population in Cherokee County. Miller received
71% from the students and 69% from the adults.
Farm income is up (cattle and hog prices) and there appears
to be no farm problem.
A potential threat, Stan Culver, announced for re-election
to his House seat, Democrats have been polling and the
results look bad for them. They may have to draft a candi-
date, unless FCC Bad Guy Nick Johnson goes home to run.
NEW JERSEY: GOP Sure, Case (R)
Case is considered unbcatable, and vulnerable only in a GOP
primary. Sandman has announced he is considering a chal-
lenge to Case unless Case becomes a good Republican by
supporting the President and does not push the state income
tax in a Presidential year.
Sandman will be having a $50 dinner on March 11. That is
the outside date for him to announce his decision. He has
implied White House support, but got shot down on this by us.
Case is grateful.
The Democrats have only one announced candidate, Pat
McGahan, of Atlantic County. If the Governor comes out,
he will support Case. Adrian "Bud" Foley, of Governor
Hughes' law office, has declined to run. An AP sampling
is reputed to show Case has the bulk of the vote.
TEXAS: GOP Sure, Tower (R)
Tower is unopposed in the primaries and the outlook is good.
The Democrats have three candidates seeking the nomination,
page 4
Ralph Yarborough, Barefoot Sanders and Hugh Wilson, a
Port Arthur laboratory technician. Tower looks good in
the polls taken late last year. The busing issue remains
a drag on Tower and the state of the economy may be a
significant influence on the outcome. Tower's finances
are in good shape.
TENNESSEE: GOP Sure, Baker (R)
Baker appears to be doing well. There is no serious
primary contender. The Executive Committee of the State
GOP has endorsed Baker. The Democrats are badly split.
Congressman Ray Blanton should be the Democratic con-
tender. Busing remains a problem, but it is not as volatile
as last fall. The President is looking increasingly better.
MASSACHUSETTS: GOP Sure, Brooke (R)
Brooke is in a very strong position. He is strong in the
polls and has raised a good portion of his budget ($200, 000
from one dinner). In polls measuring acceptability, Brooke
constantly rates over 70% approval and never above 10% dis-
approval. No primary opposition has as yet developed, and
there is little likelihood of a third party entry. No Demo-
crat of any stature has come forward. The Democrat
Speaker, David Bartley, is mentioned but he has not an-
nounced.
ILLINOIS: GOP Sure, Percy (R)
Percy seems to be in very good shape. It is part of their
strategy to keep a low profile and concentrate on organizing
and building a foundation until June. Pucinski is a formidable
opponent with excellent name identity. He has the pro forma
endorsement of the AFL-CIO (COPE) state organization.
Percy, however, got an endorsement from the Chicago UAW,
and will have the tacit support of local union chapters. There
have been no polls taken. Percy should win, but Pucinski's
campaigning potential is of some concern.
page 5
RHODE ISLAND: GOP Possible, Pell (D)
Pell is running 2-1 to 3-1 behind Chafee, depending on
which poll you use, but the polls may be questionable.
The "Chafee '72 Committee" is organized and has nearly
completed the state organization. Some 5,000 bumper
stickers were mailed out the second week in February.
Chafee will have no serious primary contention. His
chief worry is money. It will be closer than some think,
but we should get a pickup here.
SOUTH CAROLINA: GOP Sure, Thurmond (R)
Thurmond is unbeatable, but State Senator Nick Ziegler is
being made to run. Thurmond moved from a 2-point deficit
a year ago to a 26-point lead over ex-Governor McNair,
who won't run.
WYOMING: GOP Sure. Hansen (R)
Hansen continues to look very good. No primary opposition
has emerged. Among the Democrats, two Casper lawyers
are talking about running but have not announced. Mayne
Miller and Jim Fagan have little political experience and
would not represent much of a threat. Roncalio will prob-
ably seek re-election to his own House seat.
The Executive Order restricting the use on Federal lands
of chemical toxicants issued February 8, 1972, is bringing
howls here and in other Western states. Morton has been
told.
COLORADO: GOP Possible, Allott (R)
The Allott picture is beginning to brighten. There is no
primary opposition. Frank Evans is the most formidable
opposition that could arise. Evans, however, probably
will not challenge Allott unless he is adversely redistricted.
page 6
That is highly unlikely. There are several other probable
weaker challengers. Allott's greatest handicap is his age
(65). Because of Allott's position of leadership and the
relatively small money involved in a Colorado campaign,
the National Democrats can be expected to target this race.
OREGON: GOP Possible, Hatfield (R)
Several months ago, Hatfield was losing in the polls to
Governor Tom McCall, Representative Wendell Wyatt, or
Representative Edith Green, but now none of them is running.
Green and Wyatt have announced for re-election. It is too
late for McCall to put together a primary challenge now.
He has talked of running as an independent, but the State
Chairman publicly told McCall that if he wanted Republican
support he would have to do it as a Republican. The Demo-
crat challenger will be Wayne Morse. Morse has a credi-
bility problem about his age. If McCall stays out, Hatfield
should retain his seat. If McCall comes out as an inde-
pendent (which is unlikely). things could be bad
DELAWARE: GOP Possible, Boggs (R)
Boggs should retain his seat. He has no primary opposition.
Boggs' chances would be better were the party not divided.
There are two possible Democrat contenders. Ex-Governor
Elbert Carvel is interested - as is 29-year old County Council-
man Joe Belden, of Wilmington.
MICHIGAN: GOP Possible, Griffin (R)
Griffin's chances are improving daily. There will be no
primary opposition. There will, however, be third and
fourth party candidates. Ex-State Senator Robert Huber and
ex-Demo Chairman Zolten Farency. State GOP officials fecl
the Democrats will be hurt more than the Republicans by this.
page 7
The Democrats have four primary contenders. The
present front-runner is Attorney General Frank Kelley.
He would make the toughest opposition, Others are
State Board of Education Member Marilyn Kelly (young
and a real looker!); former Detroit Mayor Jerome
Cavenaugh; and the first Black to hold statewide elected
office, Secretary of State Richard Austin. Senator
Griffin is looking better because of his stand on busing
and auto tax relief. The President is looking good,
The Detroit Free Press polled a Detroit high school in
January. The President walked away with it!
MAINE: GOP Possible, Smith (R)
Opinion remains mixed regarding the vulnerability of
Senator Smith. Her primary opponent is Robert Monks,
who has been in the state only two years and is married
into a wealthy family. He is President of Sprague Asso-
ciates, an oil and coal distribution company. The issues
revolve around Senator Smith's age (74) and health, and
the fact that Monk appears to be a. newcoiner trying to
purchase the election. Monk has put together an excellent
organization and is working hard. Congressman William
Hathaway will be the Democrat nominee. He is a strong
candidate and the GOP primary fight could give him a boost.
Also, if Muskie is the Democrat Presidential nominee. This
one is very much up in the air.
NEBRASKA: GOP Possible, Curtis (R)
The Curtis election is closely tied to the President's cam-
paign and national issues, especially farming. If Vietnam
and the summit meetings go well, Curtis will benefit. The
economy is in good shape. Unemployment is approximately
2.2%. Curtis has two primary challengers, but neither is
a threat. The Democrats are in a tough primary. There
are seven contenders. The two most likely to win are State
page 8
Legislator Wayne Ziebart, and a Professor from the
University of Nebraska, Dr. Wallace Peterson. Peterson
is the Chairman of the Economics Department. No polls
have been taken. Curtis is expected to win in a close race.
KANSAS: GOP Possible, Pearson (R)
Senator Pearson will have a tough race. There will be
no primary race and the party is fairly united, but the
response of party people to Pearson is only lukewarm.
Governor Docking will be the Democrat nomince, though
he won't make an announcement until the Legislature ad-
journs in mid-March or later, Docking is the first third-
term Governor in Kansas history and as a conservative,
he is a formidable vote-getter. (If not Docking, Attorney
General Vern Miller would be strong too.) With a good
campaign, Pearson can probably win.
KENTUCKY: Democrat Possible, Cooper (R)
Cooper has announced his retirement. The only possible GOP
winner would be ex-Governor Louie Nunn, and that is question-
able. However, he is not too willing and wants some re-
assurances and financial backing from the White House. Bob
Gable is also talking about running. He was Parks Commis-
sioner under Nunn. His name identity is not good throughout
the state. Dee Huddleston, Majority Leader in the State
Senate, will probably be the Democrat nominec. He has good
name identity and has the strong backing of Democrat Governor
Ford. There is a question whether Nunn is vulnerable on
possible scandals and could hurt the Presidential race.
VIRGINIA: Democrat Possible. Spong (D)
Spong, who appeared to be a loser a year ago, is in better
shape today. He will probably have little opposition in the
primaries. The only announced GOP candidate is Rep.
William Scott, a sure loser. Joel Broyhill doesn't want to
page 9
give up his spot on Ways and Means. However, he is
trying to line up Democrat Dan Daniel to switch and unite
Byrd and GOP forces. As usual, Holton is a problem,
and Scott won't get out of the way. Jack Marsh has
refused to go. Looks like we get Daniel or Broyhill, or
we forfeit the seat. To get Daniel, Scott must get out and
Holton must assent -- two real problems.
GEORGIA: Democrat Possible, Gambrell (D)
Former Governor Ernest Vandiver has announced against
Gambrell in the Democrat primary. Vandiver is a nephew
of Senator Russell by marriage and was allegedly promised
the seat. Ex-Governor and liberal Carl Sanders may get
in too. Gambrell will probably win, but it will be close.
Lester Maddox is still a factor, but no one knows what he
will do. Most think he will wait for another run at the
Governor's office.
Fletcher Thompson will be the GOP nominee. Bo Callaway
is involved with a new business venture. Phil Campbell
thinks Thompson could win, especially if Sanders gets the
Democrat nod. Also, the President looks good and coattails
could help. Probably Gambrell will win.
MONTANA: Democrat Possible, Metcalf (D)
Metcalf is fading, but may win despite himself. His temper
and drinking are renowned throughout Montana. The only
Republicans to file are State Senator Henry Hubbard and
State Senator Fred Carl. Neither represent the dream candi-
date. Chet Huntley considered running GOP, but put his Big
Sky effort first. Attorney General Bob Woodall has announced
for re-election, Former Governor Tim Babcock is beginning
to look like the most viable potential candidate. He has some
carry-over liabilities. But, since 1968, his credibility has
increased. Ilis business ventures may have given him some
page 10
momentum. Babcock makes an attractive candidate. He
has not announced, but is ahead of the field. The right
candidate could get Metcalf; he is vulnerable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democrat Possible, McIntyre (D)
As yet no one has announced against McIntyre. Wes Powell
says he wants to wait until after the Presidential primary.
Bob Whalen, the State Chairman, thinks Powell is becoming
reluctant. The strongest candidate would be Louis Wyman,
but he won't run. He is looking at Cotton's seat. U.S.
Attorney Dave Brock is also interested and has said he
would run against Powell if no one else did, That is un-
likely. McIntyre is in good shape at this point. Only Locb
is taking pot shots at him in the press. Other papers are
generally supportive. McIntyre will probably retain his seat.
NEW MEXICO: GOP Possible, Anderson (D)
The Democrats have a wide open primary on their hands.
The primary candidates include Dave Norvell, the Attorney
General; Jack Daniels, ex-State Representative and candidate
for Governor; ex-Congressman Tom Morris; Jesse Kornegay,
State Treasurer with much experience in state administration.
Lt. Gov. Robert Mondargon, a Mexican-American, may
announce. He would make an attractive candidate. Jack
Daniels is favored to win. The GOP has three announced
candidates -- Pete Domenici, 1970 Governor nominee;
David Cargo; and former Lt. Gov. E. Lee Francis. Domenici
will win the GOP nod, and a poll indicates he could take the
seat in a squeaker.
NORTH CAROLINA: Democrat Possible, Jordan (D)
There are two prime contenders in the GOP primary: Jesse
Helms, a very conservative (WRAL-TV) broadcaster, and
page 11
State Rep. James C. Johnson. Among the Democrats,
Rep, Nick Galifianakis is Jordan's major opposition. The
Senator should get the nomination. With RN coattails,
we have a chance though behind now in a poll.
OKLAHOMA: Democrat Possible, Harris (D)
The Democrats are in a bitter primary fight. Congress-
man Ed Edmondson is favored to win. His toughest
opponent is State Corporation Commissioner Charles
Nesbitt. There are several other contenders.
The GOP candidate will be Dewey Bartlett, The general
election is going to be very tough, but the GOP does have
a fighting chance. Bartlett is putting together a good
organization and is working very hard. The President is
looking good and should be a help to Bartlett's chances.
Edmondson is favored.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Possible, Mundt (R)
Because of Senator Mundt's problem and farm woes, the
GOP is in trouble. They are, however, fielding five candi-
dates - three of whom have announced. Bob Hirsch, with
12 years experience in the legislature; Ken Stofferahan,
an NFO official and farmer; and Tom Reardon, a banker
with little political background. Two unannounced candidates
are Chuck Lien, a businessman with party experience, and
Gordon Midland, the State Attorney General. This will be
a very close primary. Hirsch probably has the edge, but
he must receive 35% of the vote. If a candidate fails to
receive 35%, the top two go into convention. In convention
Midland and Hirsch would be favored, but no one will make
a guess at the outcome.
Democrat Congressman Abourezk, worse than McGovern,
has announced. He will be tough to beat because of GOP
woes and he is a good politician.
page 12
ALABAMA: Democrat Sure, Sparkman (D)
The GOP has a four-way primary race between Winton
Blount, young State Rep. Bert Nettles, Jim Martin, and
Doris Callahan. This is a very close primary and the
first statewide GOP primary. It is probably between
Blount and Nettles. Sparkman has some primary oppo-
sition but is expected to have no problems. He should
retain his Senate seat.
ARKANSAS: Democrat Sure, McClellan (D)
McClellan is very much in the race, but has two announced
primary candidates - Congressman David Pryor and Ted
Boswell. Labor-backed Boswell ran for Governor in 1968
and missed by a narrow margin.
Republicans will probably not field a serious contender.
They feel that McClellan is most vulnerable in the general
election, not in the primary. They all also feel that the
"White House" will give no encouragement to anyone chal-
lenging McClellan. Chairman Charles Bernard would like
a chance at McClellan, but thinks it best to wait for Fulbright.
McClellan wins.
LOUISIANA: Democrat Sure, Ellender (D)
Senator Ellender will run. Who will oppose him in the Deino-
cratic primary is still uncertain. Gov. McKeithen is less
likely to challenge him (will probably take Presidency of LSU);
also, he has scandal problems.
Tom Stagg, the GOP Committeeman, is still very interested
and very weak, as are several other hopefuls from New Orleans.
The attitude for the President is very good.
page 13
MINNESOTA: Democrat Sure, Mondale (D)
Senator Mondale has no serious primary opposition and
is in excellent shape. Some Republicans have gone so
far as to argue that he should be allowed to run un-
opposed. The GOP, however, does have a field of
potential candidates. They include Rudy Boschwitz,
the National Committeeman; State Rep. James Ulland;
State Rep. Ed Brandt; and Arlin A. Erdahl, Secretary
of State. Mondale should retain his seat.
MISSISSIPPI: Democrat Sure, Eastland (D)
Eastland is unopposed and should retain the seat. There
is no GOP candidate except James Meredith, and the state
GOP is trying to find a way to keep him out. Ex-I.t. Gov.
Sullivan is thinking about running as a Republican.
WEST VIRGINIA: Democrat Sure, Randolph (D)
Randolph has no major opposition since Arch Moore has
filed for re-election. Ken Hechler has been redistricted
and has filed both against Randolph and for his own re-
districted seat. The GOP candidate is Mrs. Louise Leonard.
She is a State Senator and won her seat in a heavy Democrat
area. She is a viable candidate.
Tab "A" is a map showing Senate seats up for re-election
in 1972.
SENATOR
(Name and Percentage Last Election)
TON
MONTANA
CANADA
->>
NORTH DAKOTA
McINTYRE
MINNESOTA
54.0
METCALF
MONDALE
53.2
53.9
BROOKE
WISCONSIN
60.7
DAKOTA
NEW YORK
CONN
ORNIA
PENNSYLVANIA
PELL
NEVADA
67.7
UTA
INDIANA
OHIO
CASE
NO
WEST
60.0
MISSOURI
VIRGINIA
RANDOLPH
BOGGS
59.5
SPONG
59.1
58.6
NORTH CAROLINA
ARIZONA
JORDAN
NEW MEXICO
55.6
OKLAHOMA
ARKANSAS
HARRIS
McCLELLAN
GEORGIA
ALABAMA
ANDERSON
53.7
100.0
MISSISSIPPI
1972
53.1
SPARKMAN
GOP SEN. UP
60.1
LOUISIANA
GAMBRELL
DEMO SEN. UP
EASTLAND
65.6
FLORIDA
19 REPS
MEXICO
TOTAL
ELLENDER
14 DEMOS
99.9
54
U.S. SENATE
HAWAII
92ND CONGRESS ('71)
-
45 REPUBLICANS
*APPOINTED TO
55 DEMOCRATS
VACANCY
Courtesy of:
The Republican National Committee
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent USD
SUBJECT:
1972 U.S. Congressional Races
The Congressional Campaign Committee is privately predicting
a House gain of 12-20 seats, depending on the strength of
Presidential contails. (They have been told to stop this type
talk and swear they are only giving us an idea of what they
expect.) They need 38 for control.
Currently, there are 178 Republicans, 2 vacancies, and 254
Democrats. We should win the 2 special elections in April
(Illinois 15th, Reid, and Pennsylvania 27th, Fulton), although
the Fulton seat will be tough because of heavy Democrat regis-
tration. Nevertheless, both will be okay after November
because of reapportionment since Fulton's seat will be folded
into John Heinz's seat.
Several of our ranking Members of important Committees
have already announced their intended retirement. Though
open seats in either Party are traditionally a battleground for
the opposing Party to try to take over, these vacancies should
pose no major problem for the '72 election. It is true that
we are losing some very excellent legislators (Allen Smith,
Springer, Byrnes, Jonas, Pelly, Bow and several others), but
most of these men represent districts which should stay
Republican, given good candidates to succeed them. It will
be more expensive to defend these seats with new names as
candidates, but other than that, we do not view this mass re-
tirement as a very serious problem insofar as the numbers
game for House control is concerned.
page 2
The major opportunities for gains by Republicans will be
in new seats created by redistricting, a few Democrat
open seats, prospects of recapturing a few we lost in 1970
and the possibility of defeating a few other incumbent Demo-
crats, particularly if the President runs strongly in certain
areas. In net terms, redistricting, when finally accom-
plished in all states, will result in Republican advantages
in 6 to 8 districts.
Tab "A" contains information on tentative target districts
for November.
TENTATIVE TARGET DISTRICTS
1972
GOP % of TOTAL
DISTRICT
INCUMBENT
PLURALITY
VOTE '70-'72
Alaska - A.L.
Begich
8,190
44.9
Colorado - 4
Aspinall
14,075
44.9
Connecticut - 1
Cotter
1,165
48.1
Connecticut - 6
Grasso
4,063
48.9
Illinois - 22
Shipley
13,396
46.0-50.8
Indiana - 4
Roush
6,256
48.1-48.7
Indiana - 11
Jacobs
20,339
41.7-51.0
Kansas - 2
Roy
11,318
45.0-44.3
Maryland - 6
Byron
3,756
47.6-51.0
Massachusetts - 4
Drinan
3,367
35.7-37.0
Note: 3-way race
R-60,575
D-63,943
Indiana (Philbin) 45,283
Minnesota - 7
Bergland
12,082
45.9-46.1
New Mexico -- ?
Runnels
3,444
48.1
South Dakota - 1
Denholm
15,306
44.0-44.1
Utah 1
McKay
6,230
47.9-47.7
Washington - 4
McCormack
6,875
47.4
Wyoming - A.L.
Roncalio
608
49.7
OPEN DISTRICTS THROUGH RETIREMENT
DISTRICT
REPUBLICAN
California - old 20
Smith
Illinois - 21
Springer
N.C. - 9
Jonas
Ohio - 4
McCulloch
4
Betts
Ohio - 16
Bow
Pa. - new 9
Whalley
Virginia - 6
Poff
Wash. - 1
Pelly
Wisconsin - old 8
Byrnes
page 2 - Tab A
Open Districts Through Retirement (con't.)
DISTRICT
DEMOCRAT
Louisiana - 8
Long
Maryland - 3
Garmatz
Miss. - 3
Griffin
Missouri - 6
Hull
N.C. 7
Lennon
Texas - 2
Dowdy
OPEN DISTRICTS THROUGH REDISTRICTING
California
5 new districts
Illinois
3, 10, 17
Maryland
4
INCUMBENTS OPPOSED THROUGH REDISTRICTING
Iowa
Kyl (R)-Smith (D)
North Dakota
Andrews (R)-Link (D)
Note: Link may run for Governor
Texas
Price (R) - Purcell (D)
Wisconsin
O'Konski (R)-Obey (D)
OPEN DISTRICTS RUNNING FOR SENATE
DISTRICT
REPUBLICAN
Georgia - 5
Thompson
Idaho 1
McClure
Virginia - 6
Scott
DISTRICT
DEMOCRAT
Arkansas - 4
Pryor
Illinois - 11
Pucinski
Maine 2
Hathaway
N.C. 4
Galifianakis
Oklahoma - 2
Edmondson
S.D. - 2
Abourezk
Note: Louisiana - 7 -- Edwards
elected Governor 2/1/72
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 25, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent AD
SUBJECT:
1972 Governors' Races
At present there are 29 Democrat Governors and 21 Re-
publicans, plus our governorships in Samoa, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico - all now elective.
Of the 18 seats up this year, we could win 9 and lose 9,
giving the same count next January of 29 to 21. Potential
losers are: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Montana,
North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Utah. Winners
(some very close) should be: Delaware, Iowa, Missouri,
New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Vermont,
Washington, and West Virginia. Luis Ferre should hold
on in Puerto Rico.
Here are the Governor race .comments:
ARKANSAS: Democrat Sure, Bumpers (D)
There is no way Bumpers can be successfully challenged
this year. He has no big vulnerabilities.
DELAWARE: GOP Possible, Peterson (R)
Peterson should win, but he has had budget problems and
some party trouble. He is now improving. Ex-Speaker
Earl McGinnis has announced for the Democrat nod and a
few more may try.
page 2
ILLINOIS: Democrat Possible, Ogilvie (R)
Ogilvie is pulling up, but he's still behind. He has a pri-
mary challenge, Dr. John Mathis, but Ogilvie will win.
There are no money problems. Looks like an uphill horse
race against Lt. Gov. Paul Simon.
INDIANA: Democrat Possible, Whitcomb (R)
Ex-Gov. Matt Welsh is out front. Only Ruckelshaus would
have a chance, and there's concern whether to risk him.
Speaker Otis (Doc) Bowen has announced for us, but can't
beat Welsh. The party is coming back together with a new
chairman, James T. Neal.
IOWA: GOP Possible, Ray (R)
Ray will kill Jepsen in the primary and should go on to beat
ex-State Treasurer Paul Franzenburg in November. Ray
beat him in 1968 by 93,000 votes.
KANSAS: Democrat Possible, Docking (D)
Much depends on whether popular Docking goes for Governor
or Senator. Atty. Gen. Vern Miller is also popular and
waiting to go if Docking doesn't. We will run U. S. Atty.
Robert Roth or ex-Gov. John Anderson. Our Lt. Gov.,
Reynolds Schultz, is weak. Democrat advantage here.
MISSOURI: GOP Possible, Hearnes (D)
State Auditor Kit Bond is our best bet, says an MOR poll,
and is only 1 point behind the Democrats. Our people feel
we can win with this dynamic and articulate young man.
The Democrat nod will go to Earl Blackwell, Joseph Teasdale,
or William Morris. We have a few more interested also -
Bus King, Steve Burns, Harvey Engie, and Gene McNary.
page 3
MONTANA: Democrat Possible, Anderson (D)
We would be better off with Anderson running for re-election,
but he bailed out. Also, Atty. Gen, Woodhall and Speaker
Lucas backed out on our side. Frank Dunkle, Game Com-
mission Chairman, is the only GOP face on the scene now,
and the Lt. Gov., Thomas Judge, can probably beat him. We
still have time. What we need is a good candidate.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: GOP Possible, Peterson (R)
Peterson should survive Bob Hill and Roger Crowley, the
only Democrat probable now. No final judgment can be reached
until the Legislature finishes its tax troubles. Fiscal woes
could undo Peterson in November.
NORTH CAROLINA; Democrat Possible, Scott (D)
Jim Gardner will beat Jim Holshouser 2-1 in the GOP primary
and run a close race against Lt. Gov. Pat Taylor in November.
If the President sweeps good in North Carolina, Gardner could
win. Now he's 11-points behind Taylor. The Democrat field
is crowded. Gardner is all out for the President this time
and has the money.
NORTH DAKOTA: GOP Possible, Guy (D)
Guy is retiring, and Congressman Arthur Link is the Democrat
leader. Lt. Gov. Dick Larsen is our best bet over Frank
Larson, a banker, and Robert McCarney. Our people fecl
Dick Larsen will win.
RHODE 1SLAND: GOP Possible, Licht (D)
This is our brightest pickup possibility. Herb DeSimone lost
by . 3% in 1970 and a Becker poll now shows him way ahead
because Licht promised no tax increase in beating Chaffee and
then raised taxes.
page 4
SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Sure, Kneip (D)
Kneip will be hard to beat because he's doing okay and
we have too many troubles and no first-rate candidate,
though several should contest - Bob Bartron, Gordon
Mydland, Joe Barnett, Earl Thompson, and Bob Burns.
TEXAS: Democrat Sure, Smith (D)
Smith has scandal problems but is fighting hard. Lt. Gov.
Barnes is expected to take him and win in November. There
are hints of Barnes scandals too. On our side, the leader-
ship and Tower aren't encouraging any real effort except for
Al Fay to stop maverick conservative State Senator Hank
Grover in a primary with 7 contenders. The Democrats
have 10 contenders.
UTAH: Democrat Possible, Rampton (D)
This will be a sure thing for the Democrats if Rampton runs
again. He is expected to do SO. The two most likely GOP
candidates are State Senator W. Hughes Brockbank and Salt
Lake County Commissioner William Dunn. Both credible
individuals.
VERMONT: GOP Possible, Davis (R)
We can hold this if Gov. Dean Davis (70) goes again. He
indicates he will If not, it'll be tough.
WASHINGTON: GOP Possible, Evans (R)
Gov. Evans will have a tough fight against State Senator Martin
Durkan (likely) or Seattle Mayor Wesley Uhlman, If Jackson
is on the national ticket, Evans could lose. Polls show, how-
ever, that Evans is not being held responsible for unemploy-
ment there.
page 5
WEST VIRGINIA: GOP Possible, Moore (R)
Arch Moore is slightly ahead of Jay Rockefeller now in the
polls. Moore has improved since last year. Being Chair-
man of the National Governors has helped. The Jack
Anderson efforts to hurt Moore on tax problems has not
penetrated wild and wonderful West Virginia. Strip mining
is an issue there. This hurt Rockefeller. Also, Byrd and
Randolph should help Moore.
Tab "A" is a map showing the Governors races. (We already
lost Louisiana, but Dave Treen did well with 43%.)
GOVERNOR/LEGISLATURE
(Name and Percentage Last Election)
PETERSON
45.7
MAINE
MONTANA
CANADA
you
U:
NORTH OAKOTA
MINNESOTA
DAVIS 57.0
IDAHO
CURTIS 50.1
L
UL
ANDERSON
OREGON
GUY
53.8
MICH
ANDERSON
SARGENT
54.8
WISCONSIN
Nr
L
54.1
SOUTH DAKOTA
UL
UL
McCALL
UL
MYOMING
UL
U
MICHIGAN
55.7
U
ROCKEFELLER
LICHT
ANDRUS
KNEIP
LUCEY
MILLIKEN
50.4
NEVADA
52.2
UL
54.9
54.6
50.0
PENNSYLVANIA
MESKILL
HATHAWAY
NEBRASKA
LLINOIS
SHAPP
53.8
OHIO
1
ЛВ
UL
55.3
62.7
1973
UL60.7
L
COLORADO
EXON
GILLIGAN
O'CALLAGHAN
54.3
MISSOURI
54.3
ULPETERSON
50.2
U
KANSAS
UL
RAMPTON
UL
MANDEL
68.7
LOVE
DOCKING
HEARNES
NORTH CAROLINA
65.2
REAGAN
ARIZONA
52.4
54.4
SCOTT
52.9
NEW MEXICO
60.8
OKLAHOMA
TENNESIVE
DUNN
52.7
TEXAS
ARKANSAS
51.9
CAROLINA
HALL
GEORGIA
ALABAMA
UL
WEST
1972
48.4
MISSISSIPPI
KING
52.1
GOP GOV. UP
WILLIAMS
51.8
BUMPERS
50.7
62.1
CARTER
DEMO GOV. UP
59.3
LOUISIANA
1971
WALLACE
11 REPS
ALASKA
TOTAL 23
WILLIAMS
74.5
12 DEMS
70.3
MEXICO
FLORIDA
EGAN
McKEITHEN
10 OTHER
51.9
100.0
SMITH
GOP GOV.
BURNS
53.6
5
HAWAII
ASKEW
55.6
LEGISLATURE
of 56.9
U-UPPER HOUSE CONTROLLED BY GOP
L-LOWER HOUSE CONTROLLED BY GOP
Courtesy of:
The Republican National Committee
February 28, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTR. FIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
CONF IDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
By Ef
NAL , Date 3-29-82
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
Governor John West of South Carolina is acting as Larry
O'Brien's private agent in trying to handle George
Wallace. West hinted in a South Carolina newspaper
interview over the weekend that Wallace might be used
by the Democrats in the general election as Thurmond
was used by the Republicans in 1968.
West then went off the record to tell this reporter,
Lee Bandy, who writes for the Nashville Banner and
The State of Columbia, S. C., that he has actually been
assigned the mission of making a deal with Wallace to
get him to stay a Democrat in the fall and campaign for
the Democrat nominee and the Democrat candidates generally.
This is a slim hope unless their price is mighty high,
but this explains why O'Brien and others are beginning
to soften in their attitude on Wallace.
bc: Bob Haldeman