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This file contains: From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: White House Budget/Committee for the Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972 From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Committee for the Re-Election Support. This document discusses financial support for the committee. 20 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972 From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Wallace…Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 2/14/1972 From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman. RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote." (Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 2/22/1972 From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/28/1972 From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State Digests. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 2/21/1972 To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling. Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General. RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South Dakota. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/1/1972 For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE: Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire primary vote. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/2/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document discusses the Senate races in the 33 states with large percentages of Republican voters. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/25/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General (bc: Bob Haldeman). This document discusses Govenor John West or South Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972

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WHSF: Contested, 29-2
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This file contains: From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: White House Budget/Committee for the Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/16/1972 From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Committee for the Re-Election Support. This document discusses financial support for the committee. 20 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/3/1972 From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Wallace…Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 2/14/1972 From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman. RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote." (Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 2/22/1972 From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/28/1972 From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State Digests. 3 pgs. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Memo], 2/21/1972 To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling. Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General. RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South Dakota. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/1/1972 For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE: Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire primary vote. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/2/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document discusses the Senate races in the 33 states with large percentages of Republican voters. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/24/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/25/1972 From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General (bc: Bob Haldeman). This document discusses Govenor John West or South Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 29 2 2/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: White House Budget/Committee for the Re-Election of the President--Support. 1 pg. 29 2 2/3/1972 Campaign Memo From Bruce Kehrli to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Committee for the Re-Election Support. This document discusses financial support for the committee. 20 pg. 29 2 2/14/1972 Campaign Newsletter From C.G. Rebozo to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Wallace Nixon's Florida Fixer. 4 pgs. 29 2 2/22/1972 White House Staff Memo From Donald Rumsfeld to Bob Haldeman. RE: "14,000 youths sign up to vote." (Attached article-for your information). 2 pgs. Friday, August 05, 2011 Page 1 of 3 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 29 2 2/28/1972 Campaign Memo From Thomas B. Evans to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Memom of Jan. 31. Attachment concerns "Republican Registration." 13 pgs. 29 2 2/21/1972 Domestic Policy Memo From Gary Bauer to Ed DeBolt. RE: State Digests. 3 pgs. 29 2 White House Staff Other Document To Cliff Miller. RE: Anaylsis of Polling. Handwritten note without signature. 1 pg. 29 2 3/1/1972 Campaign Memo From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General. RE: Candidacy of Ben Reifel of South Dakota. 2 pgs. 29 2 3/2/1972 Campaign Memo For John Mitchell and Bob Haldeman. RE: Wilmur Mills and the New Hampshire primary vote. 1 pg. Friday, August 05, 2011 Page 2 of 3 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 29 2 2/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Senate Races. This document discusses the Senate races in the 33 states with large percentages of Republican voters. 14 pgs. 29 2 2/24/1972 Campaign Memo From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races. 4 pgs. 29 2 2/25/1972 Campaign Memo From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: 1972 Governor's Races. 6 pgs. 29 2 2/1/1972 Memo From Harry S. Dent to the Attorney General (bc: Bob Haldeman). This document discusses Govenor John West or South Carolino and upcoming elections. 1 pg. Friday, August 05, 2011 Page 3 of 3 Presidential Materials Review Board Review on Contested Documents Collection: H. R. Haldeman Box Number: 309 Folder: Campaign 17 Book I Feb. 17-Mar. 3, ' 72 Document Disposition 16 Retain Open 17 Retain Open 18 Return Private/Political Memo, Strachan to HRH, 2-16-72 19 Return Private/Political Memo, Kehrli to HRH, 2-3-72 20 Return Private/Political Ad, "wallace Nixon's in n d. d. 21 Return Private/Political Note, Rumsfeld to HRH, 2-22-72 22 Return Private/Political Memo, Evans to HRH, 2-28-72 23 Return Private/Political Memo, via De Bolt to Bauer, 2-21-72 24 Return Private/Political Notes, "Cliff Miller," n.d. 25 Return Private/Political Memo, Dent to the AG, 3-1-72 26 Return Private/Political Memo to Mitchell E. HR4 3-2-72 27 Retain Open 28 Retain Open 29 Return Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-24-72 30 Return Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-24-72 31 Return Private/Political Memo, Dent to the President, 2-25-72 32 Return Private/Political Memo, Dent to the A.G, 2-28-72 33 Retain Open 34 Return Private/Political Notes, "Jack Gleason," n.d. 35 Retain Open G THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential February 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: White House Budget/ Committee for the Re-Election of the President -- Support You have Bruce Kehrli's January 29 memorandum regarding the financial support for the White House by the Committee for the Re-Election of the President. This memorandum is in your talking paper drawer indicating that you wanted to cover the subject personally with the Attorney General. At your meeting today with the Attorney General and Fred Malek it might be appropriate to discuss this budget subject because Fred Malek will serve on the budget committee under No Secretary Stans at 1701. Another alternative would be to have Malek discuss the OK subject directly with the Attorney General. or just have Bruce guic it to Jeb - then we can dusiness later of aug people ADMINISTRATIVELY THE WHITE HOUSE CONFIDENTIAL WASHINGTON H February 3, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: BRUCE KEHRLI BAK G SUBJECT: Committee for the Re-Election Support On February 1, the source of financial support for the White House shifted from the RNC to the Committee for the Re-Election of the President. The Attorney General has requested (via Jeb Magruder) a rough estimate of the support that the White House will need in 1972. I have met with Dwight Chapin, Harry Dent, Bill Timmons, Herb Klein, Dick Howard, and Frank DeCosta of the Vice President's staff, to discuss their financial needs for 1972. All agreed that any budget estimate for the year should be divided into two parts -- one covering expenses before the Convention and a second covering post nomination costs. The estimates for each of the categories are broken down as follows: 1. Presidential and First Family Travel -- The total of $1,580,000 consists of $680,000 for transportation, $500,000 for promotion of events and arrangements, $350,000 for advanceman costs and $50,000 for official gifts and photos. This last item includes the cost of reproducing and distributing a new official photo. A detailed summary and the rationale for these figures are included at Tab A. A pre and post convention breakdown shows: Pre-Convention Convention and Total Post Nomination Transportation (use of AF-1, Jetstars, Helos for political events) 55,000* 625,000 680,000 Promotion 50,000 450,000 500,000 Advancemen costs 200,000 150,000 350,000 Office gifts/photos 25,000 25,000 50,000 Total 330,000 1,250,000 1,580,000 *Assuming total of 5 trips per month including President and family members. -2- 2. Staff -- The total of $100,000 will go for re- imbursement to staff members who are carrying out political business for the President. Bill Timmons, Herb Klein, Harry Dent and John Dean will be receiving most of the money. This also covers travel expenses for non-political trips over and above the maximum amount allowed by law. Also, we have cracked down on staff members who had been reimbursed by outside organizations for non-political events and generally can expect to pick up more of their expenses. 3. Colson -- The $900,000 for the Colson office con- sists of $660,000 for mailings and information retrieval, $150,000 to expand his mailing lists and about $90,000 for "black" projects -- those that have to be done outside the RNC. These costs cover only White House requirements and not those of the Committee to Re-Elect the President. Normally the costs of expanding mailing lists and in- formation retrieval would not be included in an "RNC" Support budget; they would be hidden in another portion of the RNC budget by mutual agreement between the White House and RNC. However, since the RNC will be reimbursed by the Committee for all costs incurred by the White House, these are included to give the Attorney General a more accurate picture of the actual expenses. 4. Vice President -- The Attorney General has requested that no attempt be made to estimate the Vice President's expenses until he has met with the Vice President to determine his role in the campaign. The Attorney General (per Magruder) requested that last year's estimate of $50,000 be used for budget purposes until a more accurate figure is determined. This budget does not include White House polling expenses, which I understand will be handled in another manner. In past years we have submitted budget figures to the RNC that were far under the actual estimates for the psychological advantage it provided of minimizing the amount of direct support that the RNC provided (summary at Tab B). This also put the RNC in a better position vis-a-vis the amount of money they had to request from the Finance Committee. Since the actual amounts provided were always far above the budgeted amount and this year we're all on the same team, I recommend that the actual estimate be submitted. -3- RECOMMENDATION: That you approve submission of only the pre-convention budget (Tab C) at this time and as plans for Presidential travel are finalized, submit a convention and post nomination budget in June. APPROVE H - unless Ab wants whole Submit whole budget breaget- if so, give it to OTHER him w/understanding it's a very rough guess. A MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE ADMINISTRATIVELY WASHINGTON CONFIDENTIAL January 21, 1972 FOR: BRUCE KEHRLI FROM: STEPHEN BULL Dr RE: Political Budget for 1972 Following is a breakdown of expenses for Presidential activities for 1972. For your information, but not for distribution to any outside individual, I am providing you copies of the bases for compilation of each of the below listed categories and budgets: Political Budget for 1972 Presidential Activities - Jan. 20 - Aug. 20 $ 115,200.00 First Family Activities - Jan. 20 - Aug. 20 162,994.00 Advance Budget (Pre-Convention Seminar) 30,950.00 Convention and Campaign Activities 1,259,250.00 TOTAL $1,568,394.00 TRAVEL BUDGET FOR FIRST FAMILY PRIOR TO CONVENTION The following budget is based on these assumptions: A) Julie and Tricia making four trips per month, and trips averaging two (2) hours flying time. B) Mrs. Nixon, one trip per month, averaging three (3) hours flying time. EXPENSE ESTIMATE Transportation: A) Jetstar - Julie and Tricia (16 hrs/mo. X 6 mos. X $365/hr) = 35,040 B) C-137 (970, etc.) Mrs. Nixon (3 hrs/mo X 6 mos. X $1173/hr) = 21,114 C) Busses (wild guess) 1,000 Total Transportation $57,154. Advancemen: Assumption: Average advance three (3) days Average number of advancemen: 2 Airfare - ($200/trip X 9 trips/mo X 6 mos X 2 A'men) 21,600 Hotel - (54 advances X 3 day/advance X 2 A'men X $50/day) 16,200 Autos - (54 X 3 X 2 X $25/day) 8,100 Personal - - (54 X 3 X 2 X $25/day) 8,100 Misc. - - (54 X 3 X 2 X $10/day) 3,240 $57,240 -2- Promotional Expenses: Printing: $500 x 54 stops 27,000 Telephone: $300 X 54 16,200 Misc: $100 X 54 5,400 48,600 TOTAL BUDGET: $162,994.00 ADVANCE BUDGET PRIOR TO CONVENTION The following is based on a projection of 15 domestic stops prior to August 1, 1972 Assumption: Average advance - 6 days Average number of advancemen - 6 NOTE: Number of advancemen estimated high because of training of new men. Airfare: $200.00 per trip (average) X 4 X 15 11 $ 12,000 Daily Expenses: Hotel $50.00 Autos $25.00 Personal $25.00 Misc. $20.00 $120.00 X4X6X15 = $ 43,200 Promotional Printing $3,000.00 X 15 = $ 45,000 Expenses: Telephone $750.00 X 10 = $ 7,500 Misc. $500.00 X 15 = $ 7,500 Total Advance Expenses: $115,200 Seminar Expense: The following is based on holding 5 seminars prior to June 1, each seminar having 15 men invited and one grand refresher about mid June for approximately 50 men. Airfare: 12 men X 5 seminars X $200 per man = $ 12,000 50 men X 1 refresher X $200 per man = $ 10,000 Hotel: 120 men X 2 nights X $15.00/night = $ 3,600 Personal: $15/day X 2 days X 120 = $ 3,600 Refreshments & 5 X $200/seminar = $ 1,000 Reception: 1 Refresher = $ 750 Total Seminar Expenses: $30,950 Political Budget for 1972 - CONNENTION ANd CAMPAIGN Principal Categories of Expense Transportation Advancemen: Campaign Convention WHCA Promotional Expenses The Event Miscellaneous * * * * * * * Miscellaneous Facts and Figures (a) Air transportation expenses - 1970 (Oct. and Nov. ): President, First Family, A.G., Bob Finch - $105,000 (excluding food and beverage of approximately $4, 000). (b) There was a charge only for the principal's (i.e., President or First Family member) aircraft. (c) Backup plane should not be used for political purposes or carry any political people. However, when the Spirit of '76 is used politically, it can carry anyone the President wants whether it be a County Chairman or U.S. Senator. - 2 - (d) Cost breakdown of planes: C-137 (e.g., #26000) - $1173/hour Jet Star - $365/hour Convair - $290/hour Helicopters - $260/hour (e) If any aircraft other than the President's aircraft is used for political purposes, which by law it should not, theoretically we should be charged the commercial rate. For a C-137 this would be $3,000 per hour. (f) In 1968 the President travelled to 79 cities, covering 50, 083 air miles. Assumptions (a) Much of the time members of the First Family will be doing their political travelling independently, utilizing separate aircraft. (b) For planning purposes, we can figure 50% of the 1968 activity which comes out to 40 cities and 25, 000 miles. (c) Although theoretically most of the costs of an event are borne by the locals, 60% ends up being paid by the National Committee. (d) All Presidential travel up until the Convention is non-political. * * * - 3 - Expense Estimate - 1972 Transportation Expense (a) Spirit of '76 - (25,000 miles) - 500 hours at $1173/hour: $586,500 (b) Food and beverage: 10,000 ( (c) Mrs. Nixon (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.) ): 7,300 JetStar ( $365/ ( (d) Julie (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.): 7,300 Hour ( ( (e) Tricia (10,000 miles, 20 hrs.): 7,300 (f) Helicopters ($260/hour - 25 hrs.): 6,500 (g) Busses: 1,500 Total $626,400 - 4 - Advancemen Expense - 1972 Campaign Assumption: Average advance - 6 days Average number of advancemen - 3 Airfare - round trip - (average): $ 200 Advancemon Following expenses per day. Hotel (6 days - $50/day): 300 Car Rental (6 days - $25/day): 150 Office equipment: 50 Telephone: 15 Miscellaneous (tips, taxies) - (6 days at $10/day): 60 Personal (6 days at $25/day): 150 $ 925 per advance x3 advancemen $2,775 X 40 stops Campaign Advancemen - Total $111,000 Convention - August 21-25 July 15-Aug. 25 (41 days) - 5 Advancemen 205 Advanceman Days August 1-25 (25 days) - 5 Advancemen 125 Advanceman Days August 16-25 (10 days) - 20 Advancemen 200 Advanceman Days Total 530 Advanceman Days $ 95/day Daily expenses for all advancemen: $50,350 Transportation ($200 - 30 advancemen): 6,000 Total Advancemen costs for Convention - - $56,350 Advanceman costs/day Hotel - $50 Personal - 25 Tips & Taxics - 10 Miscellaneous - 10 $95/day/advanceman CAMPAIGN ADVANCEMEN: $111,000 CONVENTION ADVANCEMEN: 56,350 TOTAL ADVANCEMEN $167,350 $ 167,350 - 5 - WHCA Expense 1972 For political purposes, the local Committee bears the cost for audio-visual only. As President, we are entitled to radio and telephone support. The range for audio-visual would be $2,000 - $3,000 per event. $2500 for a workable average. 40 cities at $2500 apiece: $100,000 Total: $100,000 - 6 - Promotional Expenses (50% reduction applies) - 1972 (a) Handbills & Tickets - ($4,000/event - 40 events): $160,000 (b) Telephone (25 phones - 3 days) - ($750/event - 40 events): 30,000 (c) Radio, TV advertising and Newspaper advertising - ($1500/event - 40 events): 60,000 (d) Invitations - ($1750/event - 20 events): 35,000 (e) Miscellaneous (e.g., sound trucks) - ($1000/event - 40 events): 40,000 $325,000 -50% Total $162,500 - 7 - The Event Expense (50% reduction applies) - 1972 (a) Hall rentals - ($1200/event - 40 events): $ 48,000 (b) Platform construction - ($1000/event - 40 events): 40,000 (c) Bands -- ($200/event - 20 events): 4,000 (d) Color materials - ($1000/event - 40 events): 40,000 (e) Courtesy ushers - ($1500/event - 40 events): 60,000 (f) Miscellaneous - ($1000/event - 40 events): 40,000 $232,000 -50% Total $116,000 - 8 - Miscellaneous - 1972 Gifts: $ 15,000 TOO Low 26K IN 1971 Donations: SOK IS MOME REALISTIC B.K. (a) $200/event - 35 events - $7,000 42,000 (b) $7,000/event - - 5 events - $35,000 Salaries: (10 men for 2 months - $1500/month): 30,000 Total $87,000 - 9 - Total Political Budget for 1972 Transportation $ 626,400 Advancemen 167,350 WHCA 100,000 Promotional Expenses 162,500 The Event 116,000 Miscellaneous 87,000 TOTAL $1,259,250 RNC BUDGET SUPPORT 1970 1971 Estimate Actual Estimate Actual (thru. Nov. I. Presidential and (5) First Family Travel $200,000 200,000 200,000 36,000 II. Staff Support 95,000 76,000 100,000 130,000 III. Colson's Mailing Operation 330,000 690,000 750,000 300,000 IV. V.P. Travel 100,000 350,000 50,000 96,000 V. 12,000 (1) 15,000 (2) VI. n/a 26,000 (3) 725,000 1,328,000 1,100,000 (6) 603,000 Acct. Ø 40,000 (4) 108,000 (4) Total 725,000 1,368,000 1,100,000 711,000 NOTES 1. Activity V added to take care of Cabinet expenses related to the campaign that were not picked up by the departments or agencies. 2. Account V was set up to pay campaign '70 expenses that were carried over into 1971. 3. Account VI covered the salaries of the people on the RNC staff working for the Citizens' Committee for the Re-Election of the President before it was announced and became a separate entity. 4. Account Ø is the cash account which has been used for expenses that couldnot be carried in another account for fear of audit. The large increase in this account for 1971 is due to the fact that all expenses related to a White House staff member were handled in account Ø so that if the RNC's accounts were audited, there would be no record of them paying for a White House staff member's political expenses. 5. Books for December have not been closed yet because of delay of about one month in receiving bills. 6. The dollar amount requested was $700,000 as some costs were buried in other parts of the RNC Budget. The figure accepted by the RNC was $500,000. C BUDGET FOR 1972 Convention and Pre-Convention Post Nomination Total I. President and 330,000 1,250,000 1,580,000 First Family Travel II. Staff Support 50,000 50,000 100,000 III. Colson's Mailing 300,000 600,000 900,000 Operation IV. V.P. Travel 50,000 50,000 TOTAL 730,000 1,900,000 2,636,000 0 For your information. No acknowledgment necessary. C.Y. Rebozo WALLACE Why is George Wallace running in our state's Demo- cratic presidential primary? One pretty obvious reason is to milk all the publicity he can get out of it. He says he's serious about seeking RIXON'S the Democratic nomination. But who does he think he's kidding? He knows he can't become the Democratic candidate for President. In fact, he plans to run for President as his own party's candidate-the American Independent Party. FLORIDA The fact is, he wants to throw a monkey-wrench into the Democratic primary. He's Richard Nixon's fixer in Florida. He wants to make such a shambles of the Florida Demo- FIXER cratic primary that Nixon can come in and mop up the remains next November, and win Florida's electoral vote. Wallace is trying the same stunt in other states. He did it in 1968, remember? And he helped fix it so Richard Nixon would be President. He took just enough votes from Hubert Humphrey in states like California, Ohio, New Jersey, Missouri and Illinois to hand Nixon the Presidency. And Wallace is still boasting about that: " Our movement was effective enough to defeat Mr. Humphrey for the Presidency of the United States." This is what Wallace himself said in Atlanta, Ga., Nov. 9, 1971. So, it comes down to this A Vote for Wallace in March Is A Vote for NiXon in November Do you want to use your vote that way? FLORIDA AFL-CIO CHARLIE HARRIS ART HALLGREN WM. E. ALLEN PRESIDENT FIRST VICE-PRESIDENT SECRETARY-TREASURER URGENT TO EVERY AFL-CIO MEMBER Florida afl-cio Non-Profit Organization U. S. POSTAGE PAID AFFILIATED WITH AMERICAN FEDERATION OF LABOR AND CONGRESS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS Tampa, Florida Permit No. 462 P.O. BOX 7097 TAMPA, FLORIDA 33603 6 "YOUR DEDICATED DOLLAR 101-1326 AT WORK" E.R. HARTMAN - 6732 PANSY DR. W. HOLLYWOOD, FL 33023 JANUARY, 1972 "Hand in Hand Florida Grows with Organized Labor" "WE have a JOB to DO!!" UL, RECEIVED FEB 14 1972 C.G. Rebozo MIAMI 7 NATIONAL Pivi KEY BISCAYNE BANK BUILDING CHILDREN'S KEY BISCAYNE, FLORIDA 33149 INFEB DEN CHEACH EEK 1972 Mr. H. R. Halderman The White House Washington, D. C. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 22, 1972 MEMORADNUM FOR: BOB HALDEMAN FROM: DONALD 'RUMSFELD For your information. 4 CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, Thurs., Feb. 17, 1972 14,000 youths sign up to vote An estimated 14,000 persons between 18 and 21 qualified to vote during a special registra- tion day in Cook County suburbs, it was an- nounced Wednesday. Thomas King, supervisor of the election di- vision of Cook County Clerk Edward J. Bar- rett's office, said between 18,000 and 20,000 persons registered Tuesday at 95 special sub- urban locations and that about 70 per cent of them were newly enfranchised young people. King estimated that there are 90,000 to 100,- 000 persons aged 18 to 21 who live in suburban areas under the county clerk's jurisdiction. That includes all of Cook County except the communities of Cicero, Berwyn Lyons and Stickney, which fall under the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. The board will hold a registration day at all 3,372 polling places next Tuesday. Before Tuesday's registration at special lo- cations, mostly in high schools, 39,000 young people had registered to vote. New regis- trants are qualified to vote in the March 21 primary election. Republican National Committee. Thomas B. Evans, Jr., Co-Chairman February 28, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HON. H. R. HALDEMAN Thought you might be interested in the attached which is a follow up to our initial memo of January 31 on registra- tion efforts. Tom lians mim attachment Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500. Republican National Committee. February 24, 1972 TO: CO-CHAIRMAN TOM EVANS FROM: ED DeBOLT RD RE: REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION Even though spring is about a month away, GOP organizations around the country are already responding to the call for early registration efforts. Evidence is in that state and local Republican organizations, at their own expense, have conducted successful pilot projects or have geared up their existing apparatus to increase the rolls of registered Republicans. These pre-spring pilot projects and registration drives by Republican Party organizations have resulted in over 85,000 new Republican registrations around the country. Even more encouraging is the response by state and local Party leadership to the call from Attorney General Mitchell and the Republican national leadership to make plans and set dates for spring registration drives. Every day the Party comes closer to reaching our first goal of causing substantial spring registration activity throughout the country. To date, 35 states, including 80 major counties, have committed their Party organizations to this activity. By the close of the Leadership Conference next week, all 50 states should be involved. State and county Republican Party organizations in FLORIDA and TEXAS have completed several successful pilot registration projects, utilizing the RNC TARGET '72 blitz day techniques for recruiting the volunteers necessary to conduct these registration drives. In Duval County, Florida, where registration is seven to one Democrat and where a very weak Republican organization was floundering, and in Pinellas County, a Republican county where the Republican registration percentage is very high, 200 new Republican workers were recruited to conduct registration drives in targeted precincts where over 6,000 households were contacted and 1, 500 unregistered favorable Republican were uncovered. These were registered prior to registration closing for the Florida Presidential primary. Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500. Page Two. On February 19, the Harris County (Houston) Republican organization turned out 220 new Republican workers in the first of a series of weekend efforts and they contacted 8, 658 households. This drive resulted in 2, 500 new Republican registrations, an average of more than 10 registrations per volunteer working on blitz day. The results from other Republican Party organization- caused registration activities include the following: FLORIDA Chairman Tommy Thomas reports that the State Party's "one and one" registration program has had a net gain of approximately 6,000 Republican voters. Ken Rietz reports that The Committee's registration activities in Orange County resulted in approximately 3, 000 favorable registrations and Party efforts in Brevard and Dade Counties have resulted in 3, 100 new GOP registrations since the beginning of the year. In Dallas, TEXAS the Party's on-going registration effort has caused 15, 800 favorable unregistered voters to join the Republican ranks there this winter. The Party organization in NORTH CAROLINA, under former Chairman Jim Holshouser and newly-elected State Chairman Frank Rouse, has produced a net gain of almost 5, 300 new Republican registrations since December. Republican Mayor Ralph Perk's victory in November has put new life into the Cuyahoga County, OHIO Republican organization and almost 21, 000 new Republicans have been registered since the November election and the implementation of their precinct registration effort. Davidson and Shelby Counties in TENNESSEE report 5, 900 and 1, 100, respectively, new Republican registrations since the first of the year. State Chairman Harry Rosenzweig in ARIZONA reports that the Party has responded well to the state's re- registration requirements and for the first time Republicans lead Democrats in populous Maricopa County registration figures. Ten thousand new Republicans have been registered since February 1. Page Three. In CALIFORNIA, a heavy emphasis on the importance of registration has been stressed and under the nominal direction of State Chairman Put Livermore many additi mal registration drives will be launched. In San Diego, more than 3, 200 new favorable voters were registered in connection with the 76th Assembly District Special Election. In the Smith Los Angeles area, what little regular Party organization there is has produced approximately 4, 000 new Republican registrations. An additional 9, 000 GOP registrations have been caused by local Party activity in San Mateo, Orange, ramento and San Francisco Counties. In NEBRASKA, Executive Director Glenn Wilson has conducted a small-scale local pilot project to test techniques for statewide spring registration drives and on one day registered 200 new Republicans. Below are listed a sample of schoduled drives in some of the top states. MARYLAND - pilot projects have been scheduled in the four largest counties on March 18 and April 1 with a statewide registration blitz day on May 20. INDIANA - ten of the top counties will conduct pilot project blitz days on April 1 prior to the April 3 registration closing date. A statewide blitz day will be Set following the May 2 primary. OHIO - State Chairman John And, ews is firmly committed to a massive statewide registration program immediately following the May 2 primary in which the Party organization will undergo reorganization. TENNESSEE - registration drives have been announced for the seven largest counties for June 19 through June 23 and negotiations are now underway to "ause earlier drives in several of these counties and some of the smaller counties. Page Four. NORTH CAROLINA - State Chairman Frank Rouse has announced plans to conduct several TARGET '72 pilot registration projects in late March and then immediately set a statewide registration blitz day following the completion of the pilot projects. FLORIDA - follow-up projects are already underway in Pinellas and Duval Counties and following the March 14 primary it is anticipated that the statewide registration effort will get underway. VIRGINIA - pilot projects are scheduled in Northern Virginia for late March to be followed by statewide regional seminars. Following the seminars, early registration days and drives will be scheduled by the local Party organizations. TEXAS - in addition to the Dallas and Houston projects, the State Committee has announced a neighbor-to- neighbor program to cause registration throughout the state. This program is now in operation and the results should be available in the next report. Another TARGET '72 pilot project is being conducted in Fort Worth by Tarrant County Chairman Ed Palm on March 4. MISSOURI - registration seminars are planned early in March in preparation for a statewide registration drive in April and May. WISCONSIN - the State Party has indicated an interest in the TARGET '72 registration techniques and negotiations are underway to launch early statewide regis- tration drives. MICHIGAN - a pilot project is scheduled for Lansing in the last week of April as the snow clears. Following the project a statewide registration drive will be scheduled. CONNECTICUT - the State Committee has scheduled their registration drives to begin March 1 and run through the end of April. TARGET '72 techniques will be used in selected areas. Page Five. HAWAII - an emphasis on registration has been announced by the State Committee and registration drives are underway now to be concluded by mid -June. COLORADO - current registration plans call for concentrated drives in the ten major counties following Party reorganization in May. Considerable campus activity has already occurred with Republicans gaining over 38 percent of the new voters. ILLINOIS - using a modified MISSION 70's concept, the Illinois Party is planning and implementing spring registration programs downstate. In cooperation with the Nixon, Percy and Ogilvie organizations, concentrated efforts in the early summer will be held in Cook County and other Northern Illinois counties. IOWA - Steve Robinson, State Executive Director, has planned an elaborate registration program which will begin by April 1, 1972. KENTUCKY - spring registration campaigns in Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort are currently being planned by Gordon Wade, State Executive Director. MONTANA - Fred Caruso, State Executive Director, has planned an extensive and ambitious statewide registration drive beginning April 27. In preparation for this a series of eleven registration training meetings and seminars will be held around the state beginning March 15. TARGET '72 techniques are being heavily stressed. NEW JERSEY - conversations with John Dimon, State Chairman, and Barbara Curran, Executive Director, are underway with the objective of defining large county-wide drives to begin April 1, 1972. Plans will be finalized by March 9. Approximately six counties have been targeted. NEW YORK - Bill Wyer of the State Committee indicates that MISSION 70's spring registration drives are currently planned throughout most of the state. Back-up programs modeled after TARGET '72 techniques will be used in weak areas. Page Six. PENNSYLVANIA - plans are being made for extensive registration drives following the April 6 primary election. Major emphasis is being placed upon spring drives which will concentrate in target counties. WASHINGTON - a statewide voter identification and registration drive will be completed by July 1. Heavy emphasis will be placed on the importance of early registration by state and local Party organizations at the March 1 Leadership Conference in Washington, D. C., where more than 1, 000 Party leaders are expected to gather. The national leadership of Republican auxiliaries, such as the Young Republicans, National Federation of Republican Women and College Republicans, has enthusiastically endorsed the Party's effort to cause registration. The leadership of these auxiliaries is now articulating the importance of registration and urging their members to participate to the fullest in causing the Party to be successful in its efforts. The Republican National Committee's TARGET '72 registration operation has established regional coordinating desks to continue to encourage and educate state and local Party organizations to the importance of early registration efforts. Through these coordinating desks we will be able to determine the status of registration activities in the various states and follow the Party's response to the challenge of the national leadership to cause a substantial increase in the Party's membership. This operation can continuously pinpoint areas where the Party is either unwilling or unable to perform its assigned tasks of registration and cause appropriate follow-up. The next complete registration report will be issued on March 10. /jrg Republican National Committee. February 24, 1972 TO: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: ED DeBOLT RE: REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION Even though spring is about a month away, GOP organizations around the country are already responding to the call for early registration efforts. Evidence is in that state and local Republican organizations, at their own expense, have conducted successful pilot projects or have geared up their existing apparatus to increase the rolls of registered Republicans. These pre-spring pilot projects and registration drives by Republican Party organizations have resulted in over 85, 000 new Republican registrations around the country. Even more encouraging is the response by state and local Party leadership to the call from Attorney General Mitchell and the Republican national leadership to make plans and set dates for spring registration drives. Every day the Party comes closer to reaching our first goal of causing substantial spring registration activity throughout the country. To date, 35 states, including 80 major counties, have committed their Party organizations to this activity. By the close of the Leadership Conference next week, all 50 states should be involved. State and county Republican Party organizations in FLORIDA and TEXAS have completed several successful pilot registration projects, utilizing the RNC TARGET '72 blitz day techniques for recruiting the volunteers necessary to conduct these registration drives. In Duval County, Florida, where registration is seven to one Democrat and where a very weak Republican organization was floundering, and in Pinellas County, a Republican county where the Republican registration percentage is very high, 200 new Republican workers were recruited to conduct registration drives in targeted precincts where over 6, 000 households were contacted and 1, 500 unregistered favorable Republican were uncovered. These were registered prior to registration closing for the Florida Presidential primary. Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500. Page Two. On February 19, the Harris County (Houston) Republican organization turned out 220 new Republican workers in the first of a series of weekend efforts and they contacted 8, 658 households. This drive resulted in 2, 500 new Republican registrations, an average of more than 10 registrations per volunteer working on blitz day. The results from other Republican Party organization- caused registration activities include the following: FLORIDA Chairman Tommy Thomas reports that the State Party's "one and one" registration program has had a net gain of approximately 6, 000 Republican voters. Ken Rietz reports that The Committee's registration activities in Orange County resulted in approximately 3, 000 favorable registrations and Party efforts in Brevard and Dade Counties have resulted in 3, 100 new GOP registrations since the beginning of the year. In Dallas, TEXAS the Party's on-going registration effort has caused 15, 800 favorable unregistered voters to join the Republican ranks there this winter. The Party organization in NORTH CAROLINA, under former Chairman Jim Holshouser and newly-elected State Chairman Frank Rouse, has produced a net gain of almost 5, 300 new Republican registrations since December. Republican Mayor Ralph Perk's victory in November has put new life into the Cuyahoga County, OHIO Republican organization and almost 21, 000 new Republicans have been registered since the November election and the implementation of their precinct registration effort. Davidson and Shelby Counties in TENNESSEE report 5, 900 and 1, 100, respectively, new Republican registrations since the first of the year. State Chairman Harry Rosenzweig in ARIZONA reports that the Party has responded well to the state's re- registration requirements and for the first time Republicans lead Democrats in populous Maricopa County registration figures. Ten thousand new Republicans have been registered since February 1. Page Three. In CALIFORNIA, a heavy emphasis on the importance of registration has been stressed and under the nominal direction of State Chairman Put Livermore many additional registration drives will be launched. In San Diego, more than 3, 200 new favorable voters were registered in connection with the 76th Assembly District Special Election. In the south Los Angeles area, what little regular Party organization there is has produced approximately 4, 000 new Republican registrations. An additional 9, 000 GOP registrations have been caused by local Party activity in San Mateo, Orange, Sacramento and San Francisco Counties. In NEBRASKA, Executive Director Glenn Wilson has conducted a small-scale local pilot project to test techniques for statewide spring registration drives and on one day registered 200 new Republicans. Below are listed a sample of scheduled drives in some of the top states. MARYLAND - pilot projects have been scheduled in the four largest counties on March 18 and April 1 with a statewide registration blitz day on May 20. INDIANA - ten of the top counties will conduct pilot project blitz days on April 1 prior to the April 3 registration closing date. A statewide blitz day will be set following the May 2 primary. OHIO - State Chairman John Andrews is firmly committed to a massive statewide registration program immediately following the May 2 primary in which the Party organization will undergo reorganization. TENNESSEE - registration drives have been announced for the seven largest counties for June 19 through June 23 and negotiations are now underway to cause earlier drives in several of these counties and some of the smaller counties. Page Four. NORTH CAROLINA - State Chairman Frank Rouse has announced plans to conduct several TARGET '72 pilot registration projects in late March and then immediately set a statewide registration blitz day following the completion of the pilot projects. FLORIDA - follow-up projects are already underway in Pinellas and Duval Counties and following the March 14 primary it is anticipated that the statewide registration effort will get underway. VIRGINIA - pilot projects are scheduled in Northern Virginia for late March to be followed by statewide regional seminars. Following the seminars, early registration days and drives will be scheduled by the local Party organizations. TEXAS - in addition to the Dallas and Houston projects, the State Committee has announced a neighbor-to- neighbor program to cause registration throughout the state. This program is now in operation and the results should be available in the next report. Another TARGET '72 pilot project is being conducted in Fort Worth by Tarrant County Chairman Ed Palm on March 4. MISSOURI - registration seminars are planned early in March in preparation for a statewide registration drive in April and May. WISCONSIN - the State Party has indicated an interest in the TARGET '72 registration techniques and negotiations are underway to launch early statewide regis- tration drives. MICHIGAN - a pilot project is scheduled for Lansing in the last week of April as the snow clears. Following the project a statewide registration drive will be scheduled. CONNECTICUT - the State Committee has scheduled their registration drives to begin March 1 and run through the end of April. TARGET '72 techniques will be used in selected areas. Page Five. HAWAII - an emphasis on registration has been announced by the State Committee and registration drives are underway now to be concluded by mid-June. COLORADO - current registration plans call for concentrated drives in the ten major counties following Party reorganization in May. Considerable campus activity has already occurred with Republicans gaining over 38 percent of the new voters. ILLINOIS - using a modified MISSION 70's concept, the Illinois Party is planning and implementing spring registration programs downstate. In cooperation with the Nixon, Percy and Ogilvie organizations, concentrated efforts in the early summer will be held in Cook County and other Northern Illinois counties. IOWA - Steve Robinson, State Executive Director, has planned an elaborate registration program which will begin by April 1, 1972. KENTUCKY - spring registration campaigns in Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort are currently being planned by Gordon Wade, State Executive Director. MONTANA - Fred Caruso, State Executive Director, has planned an extensive and ambitious statewide registration drive beginning April 27. In preparation for this a series of eleven registration training meetings and seminars will be held around the state beginning March 15. TARGET '72 techniques are being heavily stressed. NEW JERSEY - conversations with John Dimon, State Chairman, and Barbara Curran, Executive Director, are underway with the objective of defining large county-wide drives to begin April 1, 1972. Plans will be finalized by March 9. Approximately six counties have been targeted. NEW YORK - Bill Wyer of the State Committee indicates that MISSION 70's spring registration drives are currently planned throughout most of the state. Back-up programs modeled after TARGET '72 techniques will be used in weak areas. Page Six. PENNSYLVANIA - plans are being made for extensive registration drives following the April 6 primary election. Major emphasis is being placed upon spring drives which will concentrate in target counties. WASHINGTON - a statewide voter identification and registration drive will be completed by July 1. Heavy emphasis will be placed on the importance of early registration by state and local Party organizations at the March 1 Leadership Conference in Washington, D. C., where more than 1, 000 Party leaders are expected to gather. The national leadership of Republican auxiliaries, such as the Young Republicans, National Federation of Republican Women and College Republicans, has enthusiastically endorsed the Party's effort to cause registration. The leadership of these auxiliaries is now articulating the importance of registration and urging their members to participate to the fullest in causing the Party to be successful in its efforts. The Republican National Committee's TARGET '72 registration operation has established regional coordinating desks to continue to encourage and educate state and local Party organizations to the importance of early registration efforts. Through these coordinating desks we will be able to determine the status of registration activities in the various states and follow the Party's response to the challenge of the national leadership to cause a substantial increase in the Party's membership. This operation can continuously pinpoint areas where the Party is either unwilling or unable to perform its assigned tasks of registration and cause appropriate follow-up. The next complete registration report will be issued on March 10. /jrg Republican National Committee. February 21, 1972 MEMORANDUM FROM: Gary Bauer VIA: Ed DeBolt State Digests & RE: This is the first in a series of bi-monthly reports which will serve to highlight state developments affecting and relating to delegate selection of the Democratic Party. These reports will provide only a brief overview and are supplemented by the more detailed individual state reports on delegate selection that are issued as each state completes its delegate selection process. Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500. RNC RESEARCH DIVISION FEBRUARY 17, 1972 DEMOCRAT DELEGATE HUNT STATE DIGEST ALABAMA - The Democratic Executive Committee ended any possibility that George Wallace would be on the ticket in November in that state as a Democrat. (as he was in 1968) Nine electors were handpicked, pledged to cast their votes for the nominee of the convention in Miami. ARIZONA & IOWA - Larry O'Brien is pleased with the participa- pation in the Democrat precinct caucuses in these two states. 36,00 participated in the former, 40,000 in the latter. CALIFORNIA - Democrats held 387 mini-conventions on Feb- ruary 12th to unofficially pick delegates to put on the slates of each of the contenders in the primary. Observers noted that Hubert Humphrey's turnout lagged behind that of his opponents. McGovern and Muskie were in a "dead heat" for the lead in participation by Democrats. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - The one place in the country where the Democrat reform effort is being openly ignored is in the nation's Capital. Walter Fauntroy, running as a favorite son has effectively deprived residents of the city of a chance to vote for other Democrats. No other candidate wants to buck Fauntroy's machine. MICHIGAN - The odds are that Governor Milliken of Michigan will sign into law soon a bill establishing a Presidential Primary in that state (May 16). After the bill goes into effect, nine of the largest 10 states in the country will have primaries. (Texas is the only exception) The bill is supported by Democrats in the state because their party procedures were not in com- pliance with the McGovern Commission reforms. MINNESOTA - Precinct caucuses will be on February 22nd - look for them to be an early indication of whether McCarthy has any residual strength. MISSISSIPPI - Governor Waller signed into law a bill increasing the size of the Democratic state executive committee from 15 to 25. The Governor will try to come to terms with re- formers in his state by offering blacks some of the seats. The ploy probably won't work. Governor Waller and his "regular" Democrats still haven't agreed to support the nominee of the party in Miami. X Cliff Miller Logal Free - wf Rocaefeller P personally doing well, Rec- must be re -elected 50-50; a hard compaign must contribute whe made polling info and te Free for private WH analysis can. x March 1, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FROM: HARRY S. DENT ASD SUBJECT: Candidacy of Ben Reifel, of South Dakota BACKGROUND Ben Reifel is considering running for Mundt's Senate seat in South Dakota. He has not made a final decision and has been contacting old Washington friends for their advice. It has evidently been mixed. I have contacted party officials and some of those concerned here in Washington. ANALYSIS Reifel was a Member of Congress for ten years. He did not seek re-election in 1970 in order to be with his wife. She died recently and he has been urged by many "friends" to seek the GOP nomination for the U. S. Senate. There are advantages and disadvantages to his entering the primary race. A. Advantages: 1. He can win the primaries without difficulty. Reifel was popular in S. D. and constantly ran ahead of the rest of the party. 2. He can probably win the Senate seat, though it could be tough. 3. He would be a good candidate, according to many observers. Page 2 The Attorney General March 1, 1972 B. Disadvantages: 1. There are currently five contenders for the GOP nomination (three announced). All are evidently quite committed. 2. Reifel could be an extremely divisive influence. It is doubtful the schisms would heal well. 3. Reifel is 66. This is the age at which Mundt last ran. Age would be the Democrats' chief issue and it would be a good one. The consensus of most party people is that he should not seek the Senate seat, though some have urged him to do so. Nearly everyone I contacted would like to see him run for the Governor's office. Everyone thought he could easily win and would not divide S. D. Republicans in the process. Evidently, Ben is not as interested in the Gubernatorial race as in the Senate. RECOMMENDATION The consensus seemed to be that Reifel ought to be dissuaded from running for Mundt's seat, but urge him to consider the Gubernatorial race. The people who could best approach him would be Bob Dole or Jerry Ford. Reifel has great confidence in them. bcc: H. R. Haldeman March 2, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINISTRATIV ANG CONFIDENTIAL E.O. 12065, Section 0-102 By CP NAR, Date 3-29-82 MEMORANDUM FOR: JOHN MITCHELL BOB HALDEMAN A friend of mine in Arkansas had lunch with Wilbur Mills this week. Wilbur showed him a poll indicating that he, Wilbur Mills, would get between 20 and 30 per cent of the New Hampshire primary vote. That is all I know, but it sounded high to me and I thought you might be interested. DR:mel THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT FROM: Harry S. Dent AZO SUBJECT: 1972 U.S. Senate Races Since the last report, our potential seems to have slipped in Virginia and Kentucky and picked up in New Mexico. At present, the Senate lineup is 55-45 (Byrd as a Demo- crat). If we win 19 of the 33 seats up and Byrd comes over, we can still start 1973 with a net gain of one, as reported last time. Roudebush has won a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that he can get a recount in 11 counties on his 1970 loss to Hartke by 4,283 votes. Thus, there is a small chance we could get another seat if the Senate buys the recount results. GOP Sure (10) -- Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, New Jersey, Texas, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Illinois, South Carolina and Wyoming. GOP Possible (9) -- Nebraska, Maine, Colorado, Delaware, Kansas, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico and Rhode Island. Democrat Sure (6) -- Alabama, Mississippi, West Virginia, Minnesota, Louisiana and Arkansas. Democrat Possible (8) -- South Dakota, Oklahoma, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Montana, Virginia and Kentucky. page 2 ALASKA: GOP Sure, Stevens (R) There has been no appreciable change in the Stevens race. He should win. There still remains the possibility of a challenge from C. R. Lewis, a Bircher. Lewis has been a leading vote-getter in Anchorage for the State Senate. Democrat opposition will come from U.S. Representative Nick Begich, or Speaker Gene Guess. Guess is very well liked and has never lost an election, but has never run statewide. Begich could make it a tight race, but probably wants to wait for Gravel's seat in 1974. The pipeline is still the most critical issue, though the Native Land Claims Act has helped (some conservatives are upset). IDAHO: GOP Sure, Jordan (R) The situation has not appreciably changed. Jordan has an- nounced his retirement, Congressman Jim McClure appears way out front. A poll taken last fall indicated that McClure, Congressman Hansen (won't run) and former Governor Smylie in that order, were favored for the Senate seat. George Hansen has resigned his position at USDA to run, but has not announced. Smylie is showing some activity but with little apparent success. Bill Bergeson, a political unknown from Pocatello, has announced, as has Glen Wegner, of Finch's staff. Samuelson is definitely not a candidate. He hopes to run against Church in 1974. The best contender likely to emerge among the Democrats is W. E. "Bud" Davis, President of Idaho State University. Edward Williams, AA to Governor Andrus, has decided to run for McClure's House seat. Attorney General Tony Park and State Legislator Vernon Ravenscroft are also interested in the Senate race. McClure should win, page 3 IOWA: GOP Sure, Miller (R) Miller is looking good. He currently has no primary oppo- sition. The Cherokee Times recently conducted two polls, one among high school seniors and the other among 3% of the adult population in Cherokee County. Miller received 71% from the students and 69% from the adults. Farm income is up (cattle and hog prices) and there appears to be no farm problem. A potential threat, Stan Culver, announced for re-election to his House seat, Democrats have been polling and the results look bad for them. They may have to draft a candi- date, unless FCC Bad Guy Nick Johnson goes home to run. NEW JERSEY: GOP Sure, Case (R) Case is considered unbcatable, and vulnerable only in a GOP primary. Sandman has announced he is considering a chal- lenge to Case unless Case becomes a good Republican by supporting the President and does not push the state income tax in a Presidential year. Sandman will be having a $50 dinner on March 11. That is the outside date for him to announce his decision. He has implied White House support, but got shot down on this by us. Case is grateful. The Democrats have only one announced candidate, Pat McGahan, of Atlantic County. If the Governor comes out, he will support Case. Adrian "Bud" Foley, of Governor Hughes' law office, has declined to run. An AP sampling is reputed to show Case has the bulk of the vote. TEXAS: GOP Sure, Tower (R) Tower is unopposed in the primaries and the outlook is good. The Democrats have three candidates seeking the nomination, page 4 Ralph Yarborough, Barefoot Sanders and Hugh Wilson, a Port Arthur laboratory technician. Tower looks good in the polls taken late last year. The busing issue remains a drag on Tower and the state of the economy may be a significant influence on the outcome. Tower's finances are in good shape. TENNESSEE: GOP Sure, Baker (R) Baker appears to be doing well. There is no serious primary contender. The Executive Committee of the State GOP has endorsed Baker. The Democrats are badly split. Congressman Ray Blanton should be the Democratic con- tender. Busing remains a problem, but it is not as volatile as last fall. The President is looking increasingly better. MASSACHUSETTS: GOP Sure, Brooke (R) Brooke is in a very strong position. He is strong in the polls and has raised a good portion of his budget ($200, 000 from one dinner). In polls measuring acceptability, Brooke constantly rates over 70% approval and never above 10% dis- approval. No primary opposition has as yet developed, and there is little likelihood of a third party entry. No Demo- crat of any stature has come forward. The Democrat Speaker, David Bartley, is mentioned but he has not an- nounced. ILLINOIS: GOP Sure, Percy (R) Percy seems to be in very good shape. It is part of their strategy to keep a low profile and concentrate on organizing and building a foundation until June. Pucinski is a formidable opponent with excellent name identity. He has the pro forma endorsement of the AFL-CIO (COPE) state organization. Percy, however, got an endorsement from the Chicago UAW, and will have the tacit support of local union chapters. There have been no polls taken. Percy should win, but Pucinski's campaigning potential is of some concern. page 5 RHODE ISLAND: GOP Possible, Pell (D) Pell is running 2-1 to 3-1 behind Chafee, depending on which poll you use, but the polls may be questionable. The "Chafee '72 Committee" is organized and has nearly completed the state organization. Some 5,000 bumper stickers were mailed out the second week in February. Chafee will have no serious primary contention. His chief worry is money. It will be closer than some think, but we should get a pickup here. SOUTH CAROLINA: GOP Sure, Thurmond (R) Thurmond is unbeatable, but State Senator Nick Ziegler is being made to run. Thurmond moved from a 2-point deficit a year ago to a 26-point lead over ex-Governor McNair, who won't run. WYOMING: GOP Sure. Hansen (R) Hansen continues to look very good. No primary opposition has emerged. Among the Democrats, two Casper lawyers are talking about running but have not announced. Mayne Miller and Jim Fagan have little political experience and would not represent much of a threat. Roncalio will prob- ably seek re-election to his own House seat. The Executive Order restricting the use on Federal lands of chemical toxicants issued February 8, 1972, is bringing howls here and in other Western states. Morton has been told. COLORADO: GOP Possible, Allott (R) The Allott picture is beginning to brighten. There is no primary opposition. Frank Evans is the most formidable opposition that could arise. Evans, however, probably will not challenge Allott unless he is adversely redistricted. page 6 That is highly unlikely. There are several other probable weaker challengers. Allott's greatest handicap is his age (65). Because of Allott's position of leadership and the relatively small money involved in a Colorado campaign, the National Democrats can be expected to target this race. OREGON: GOP Possible, Hatfield (R) Several months ago, Hatfield was losing in the polls to Governor Tom McCall, Representative Wendell Wyatt, or Representative Edith Green, but now none of them is running. Green and Wyatt have announced for re-election. It is too late for McCall to put together a primary challenge now. He has talked of running as an independent, but the State Chairman publicly told McCall that if he wanted Republican support he would have to do it as a Republican. The Demo- crat challenger will be Wayne Morse. Morse has a credi- bility problem about his age. If McCall stays out, Hatfield should retain his seat. If McCall comes out as an inde- pendent (which is unlikely). things could be bad DELAWARE: GOP Possible, Boggs (R) Boggs should retain his seat. He has no primary opposition. Boggs' chances would be better were the party not divided. There are two possible Democrat contenders. Ex-Governor Elbert Carvel is interested - as is 29-year old County Council- man Joe Belden, of Wilmington. MICHIGAN: GOP Possible, Griffin (R) Griffin's chances are improving daily. There will be no primary opposition. There will, however, be third and fourth party candidates. Ex-State Senator Robert Huber and ex-Demo Chairman Zolten Farency. State GOP officials fecl the Democrats will be hurt more than the Republicans by this. page 7 The Democrats have four primary contenders. The present front-runner is Attorney General Frank Kelley. He would make the toughest opposition, Others are State Board of Education Member Marilyn Kelly (young and a real looker!); former Detroit Mayor Jerome Cavenaugh; and the first Black to hold statewide elected office, Secretary of State Richard Austin. Senator Griffin is looking better because of his stand on busing and auto tax relief. The President is looking good, The Detroit Free Press polled a Detroit high school in January. The President walked away with it! MAINE: GOP Possible, Smith (R) Opinion remains mixed regarding the vulnerability of Senator Smith. Her primary opponent is Robert Monks, who has been in the state only two years and is married into a wealthy family. He is President of Sprague Asso- ciates, an oil and coal distribution company. The issues revolve around Senator Smith's age (74) and health, and the fact that Monk appears to be a. newcoiner trying to purchase the election. Monk has put together an excellent organization and is working hard. Congressman William Hathaway will be the Democrat nominee. He is a strong candidate and the GOP primary fight could give him a boost. Also, if Muskie is the Democrat Presidential nominee. This one is very much up in the air. NEBRASKA: GOP Possible, Curtis (R) The Curtis election is closely tied to the President's cam- paign and national issues, especially farming. If Vietnam and the summit meetings go well, Curtis will benefit. The economy is in good shape. Unemployment is approximately 2.2%. Curtis has two primary challengers, but neither is a threat. The Democrats are in a tough primary. There are seven contenders. The two most likely to win are State page 8 Legislator Wayne Ziebart, and a Professor from the University of Nebraska, Dr. Wallace Peterson. Peterson is the Chairman of the Economics Department. No polls have been taken. Curtis is expected to win in a close race. KANSAS: GOP Possible, Pearson (R) Senator Pearson will have a tough race. There will be no primary race and the party is fairly united, but the response of party people to Pearson is only lukewarm. Governor Docking will be the Democrat nomince, though he won't make an announcement until the Legislature ad- journs in mid-March or later, Docking is the first third- term Governor in Kansas history and as a conservative, he is a formidable vote-getter. (If not Docking, Attorney General Vern Miller would be strong too.) With a good campaign, Pearson can probably win. KENTUCKY: Democrat Possible, Cooper (R) Cooper has announced his retirement. The only possible GOP winner would be ex-Governor Louie Nunn, and that is question- able. However, he is not too willing and wants some re- assurances and financial backing from the White House. Bob Gable is also talking about running. He was Parks Commis- sioner under Nunn. His name identity is not good throughout the state. Dee Huddleston, Majority Leader in the State Senate, will probably be the Democrat nominec. He has good name identity and has the strong backing of Democrat Governor Ford. There is a question whether Nunn is vulnerable on possible scandals and could hurt the Presidential race. VIRGINIA: Democrat Possible. Spong (D) Spong, who appeared to be a loser a year ago, is in better shape today. He will probably have little opposition in the primaries. The only announced GOP candidate is Rep. William Scott, a sure loser. Joel Broyhill doesn't want to page 9 give up his spot on Ways and Means. However, he is trying to line up Democrat Dan Daniel to switch and unite Byrd and GOP forces. As usual, Holton is a problem, and Scott won't get out of the way. Jack Marsh has refused to go. Looks like we get Daniel or Broyhill, or we forfeit the seat. To get Daniel, Scott must get out and Holton must assent -- two real problems. GEORGIA: Democrat Possible, Gambrell (D) Former Governor Ernest Vandiver has announced against Gambrell in the Democrat primary. Vandiver is a nephew of Senator Russell by marriage and was allegedly promised the seat. Ex-Governor and liberal Carl Sanders may get in too. Gambrell will probably win, but it will be close. Lester Maddox is still a factor, but no one knows what he will do. Most think he will wait for another run at the Governor's office. Fletcher Thompson will be the GOP nominee. Bo Callaway is involved with a new business venture. Phil Campbell thinks Thompson could win, especially if Sanders gets the Democrat nod. Also, the President looks good and coattails could help. Probably Gambrell will win. MONTANA: Democrat Possible, Metcalf (D) Metcalf is fading, but may win despite himself. His temper and drinking are renowned throughout Montana. The only Republicans to file are State Senator Henry Hubbard and State Senator Fred Carl. Neither represent the dream candi- date. Chet Huntley considered running GOP, but put his Big Sky effort first. Attorney General Bob Woodall has announced for re-election, Former Governor Tim Babcock is beginning to look like the most viable potential candidate. He has some carry-over liabilities. But, since 1968, his credibility has increased. Ilis business ventures may have given him some page 10 momentum. Babcock makes an attractive candidate. He has not announced, but is ahead of the field. The right candidate could get Metcalf; he is vulnerable. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democrat Possible, McIntyre (D) As yet no one has announced against McIntyre. Wes Powell says he wants to wait until after the Presidential primary. Bob Whalen, the State Chairman, thinks Powell is becoming reluctant. The strongest candidate would be Louis Wyman, but he won't run. He is looking at Cotton's seat. U.S. Attorney Dave Brock is also interested and has said he would run against Powell if no one else did, That is un- likely. McIntyre is in good shape at this point. Only Locb is taking pot shots at him in the press. Other papers are generally supportive. McIntyre will probably retain his seat. NEW MEXICO: GOP Possible, Anderson (D) The Democrats have a wide open primary on their hands. The primary candidates include Dave Norvell, the Attorney General; Jack Daniels, ex-State Representative and candidate for Governor; ex-Congressman Tom Morris; Jesse Kornegay, State Treasurer with much experience in state administration. Lt. Gov. Robert Mondargon, a Mexican-American, may announce. He would make an attractive candidate. Jack Daniels is favored to win. The GOP has three announced candidates -- Pete Domenici, 1970 Governor nominee; David Cargo; and former Lt. Gov. E. Lee Francis. Domenici will win the GOP nod, and a poll indicates he could take the seat in a squeaker. NORTH CAROLINA: Democrat Possible, Jordan (D) There are two prime contenders in the GOP primary: Jesse Helms, a very conservative (WRAL-TV) broadcaster, and page 11 State Rep. James C. Johnson. Among the Democrats, Rep, Nick Galifianakis is Jordan's major opposition. The Senator should get the nomination. With RN coattails, we have a chance though behind now in a poll. OKLAHOMA: Democrat Possible, Harris (D) The Democrats are in a bitter primary fight. Congress- man Ed Edmondson is favored to win. His toughest opponent is State Corporation Commissioner Charles Nesbitt. There are several other contenders. The GOP candidate will be Dewey Bartlett, The general election is going to be very tough, but the GOP does have a fighting chance. Bartlett is putting together a good organization and is working very hard. The President is looking good and should be a help to Bartlett's chances. Edmondson is favored. SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Possible, Mundt (R) Because of Senator Mundt's problem and farm woes, the GOP is in trouble. They are, however, fielding five candi- dates - three of whom have announced. Bob Hirsch, with 12 years experience in the legislature; Ken Stofferahan, an NFO official and farmer; and Tom Reardon, a banker with little political background. Two unannounced candidates are Chuck Lien, a businessman with party experience, and Gordon Midland, the State Attorney General. This will be a very close primary. Hirsch probably has the edge, but he must receive 35% of the vote. If a candidate fails to receive 35%, the top two go into convention. In convention Midland and Hirsch would be favored, but no one will make a guess at the outcome. Democrat Congressman Abourezk, worse than McGovern, has announced. He will be tough to beat because of GOP woes and he is a good politician. page 12 ALABAMA: Democrat Sure, Sparkman (D) The GOP has a four-way primary race between Winton Blount, young State Rep. Bert Nettles, Jim Martin, and Doris Callahan. This is a very close primary and the first statewide GOP primary. It is probably between Blount and Nettles. Sparkman has some primary oppo- sition but is expected to have no problems. He should retain his Senate seat. ARKANSAS: Democrat Sure, McClellan (D) McClellan is very much in the race, but has two announced primary candidates - Congressman David Pryor and Ted Boswell. Labor-backed Boswell ran for Governor in 1968 and missed by a narrow margin. Republicans will probably not field a serious contender. They feel that McClellan is most vulnerable in the general election, not in the primary. They all also feel that the "White House" will give no encouragement to anyone chal- lenging McClellan. Chairman Charles Bernard would like a chance at McClellan, but thinks it best to wait for Fulbright. McClellan wins. LOUISIANA: Democrat Sure, Ellender (D) Senator Ellender will run. Who will oppose him in the Deino- cratic primary is still uncertain. Gov. McKeithen is less likely to challenge him (will probably take Presidency of LSU); also, he has scandal problems. Tom Stagg, the GOP Committeeman, is still very interested and very weak, as are several other hopefuls from New Orleans. The attitude for the President is very good. page 13 MINNESOTA: Democrat Sure, Mondale (D) Senator Mondale has no serious primary opposition and is in excellent shape. Some Republicans have gone so far as to argue that he should be allowed to run un- opposed. The GOP, however, does have a field of potential candidates. They include Rudy Boschwitz, the National Committeeman; State Rep. James Ulland; State Rep. Ed Brandt; and Arlin A. Erdahl, Secretary of State. Mondale should retain his seat. MISSISSIPPI: Democrat Sure, Eastland (D) Eastland is unopposed and should retain the seat. There is no GOP candidate except James Meredith, and the state GOP is trying to find a way to keep him out. Ex-I.t. Gov. Sullivan is thinking about running as a Republican. WEST VIRGINIA: Democrat Sure, Randolph (D) Randolph has no major opposition since Arch Moore has filed for re-election. Ken Hechler has been redistricted and has filed both against Randolph and for his own re- districted seat. The GOP candidate is Mrs. Louise Leonard. She is a State Senator and won her seat in a heavy Democrat area. She is a viable candidate. Tab "A" is a map showing Senate seats up for re-election in 1972. SENATOR (Name and Percentage Last Election) TON MONTANA CANADA ->> NORTH DAKOTA McINTYRE MINNESOTA 54.0 METCALF MONDALE 53.2 53.9 BROOKE WISCONSIN 60.7 DAKOTA NEW YORK CONN ORNIA PENNSYLVANIA PELL NEVADA 67.7 UTA INDIANA OHIO CASE NO WEST 60.0 MISSOURI VIRGINIA RANDOLPH BOGGS 59.5 SPONG 59.1 58.6 NORTH CAROLINA ARIZONA JORDAN NEW MEXICO 55.6 OKLAHOMA ARKANSAS HARRIS McCLELLAN GEORGIA ALABAMA ANDERSON 53.7 100.0 MISSISSIPPI 1972 53.1 SPARKMAN GOP SEN. UP 60.1 LOUISIANA GAMBRELL DEMO SEN. UP EASTLAND 65.6 FLORIDA 19 REPS MEXICO TOTAL ELLENDER 14 DEMOS 99.9 54 U.S. SENATE HAWAII 92ND CONGRESS ('71) - 45 REPUBLICANS *APPOINTED TO 55 DEMOCRATS VACANCY Courtesy of: The Republican National Committee THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 24, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT FROM: Harry S. Dent USD SUBJECT: 1972 U.S. Congressional Races The Congressional Campaign Committee is privately predicting a House gain of 12-20 seats, depending on the strength of Presidential contails. (They have been told to stop this type talk and swear they are only giving us an idea of what they expect.) They need 38 for control. Currently, there are 178 Republicans, 2 vacancies, and 254 Democrats. We should win the 2 special elections in April (Illinois 15th, Reid, and Pennsylvania 27th, Fulton), although the Fulton seat will be tough because of heavy Democrat regis- tration. Nevertheless, both will be okay after November because of reapportionment since Fulton's seat will be folded into John Heinz's seat. Several of our ranking Members of important Committees have already announced their intended retirement. Though open seats in either Party are traditionally a battleground for the opposing Party to try to take over, these vacancies should pose no major problem for the '72 election. It is true that we are losing some very excellent legislators (Allen Smith, Springer, Byrnes, Jonas, Pelly, Bow and several others), but most of these men represent districts which should stay Republican, given good candidates to succeed them. It will be more expensive to defend these seats with new names as candidates, but other than that, we do not view this mass re- tirement as a very serious problem insofar as the numbers game for House control is concerned. page 2 The major opportunities for gains by Republicans will be in new seats created by redistricting, a few Democrat open seats, prospects of recapturing a few we lost in 1970 and the possibility of defeating a few other incumbent Demo- crats, particularly if the President runs strongly in certain areas. In net terms, redistricting, when finally accom- plished in all states, will result in Republican advantages in 6 to 8 districts. Tab "A" contains information on tentative target districts for November. TENTATIVE TARGET DISTRICTS 1972 GOP % of TOTAL DISTRICT INCUMBENT PLURALITY VOTE '70-'72 Alaska - A.L. Begich 8,190 44.9 Colorado - 4 Aspinall 14,075 44.9 Connecticut - 1 Cotter 1,165 48.1 Connecticut - 6 Grasso 4,063 48.9 Illinois - 22 Shipley 13,396 46.0-50.8 Indiana - 4 Roush 6,256 48.1-48.7 Indiana - 11 Jacobs 20,339 41.7-51.0 Kansas - 2 Roy 11,318 45.0-44.3 Maryland - 6 Byron 3,756 47.6-51.0 Massachusetts - 4 Drinan 3,367 35.7-37.0 Note: 3-way race R-60,575 D-63,943 Indiana (Philbin) 45,283 Minnesota - 7 Bergland 12,082 45.9-46.1 New Mexico -- ? Runnels 3,444 48.1 South Dakota - 1 Denholm 15,306 44.0-44.1 Utah 1 McKay 6,230 47.9-47.7 Washington - 4 McCormack 6,875 47.4 Wyoming - A.L. Roncalio 608 49.7 OPEN DISTRICTS THROUGH RETIREMENT DISTRICT REPUBLICAN California - old 20 Smith Illinois - 21 Springer N.C. - 9 Jonas Ohio - 4 McCulloch 4 Betts Ohio - 16 Bow Pa. - new 9 Whalley Virginia - 6 Poff Wash. - 1 Pelly Wisconsin - old 8 Byrnes page 2 - Tab A Open Districts Through Retirement (con't.) DISTRICT DEMOCRAT Louisiana - 8 Long Maryland - 3 Garmatz Miss. - 3 Griffin Missouri - 6 Hull N.C. 7 Lennon Texas - 2 Dowdy OPEN DISTRICTS THROUGH REDISTRICTING California 5 new districts Illinois 3, 10, 17 Maryland 4 INCUMBENTS OPPOSED THROUGH REDISTRICTING Iowa Kyl (R)-Smith (D) North Dakota Andrews (R)-Link (D) Note: Link may run for Governor Texas Price (R) - Purcell (D) Wisconsin O'Konski (R)-Obey (D) OPEN DISTRICTS RUNNING FOR SENATE DISTRICT REPUBLICAN Georgia - 5 Thompson Idaho 1 McClure Virginia - 6 Scott DISTRICT DEMOCRAT Arkansas - 4 Pryor Illinois - 11 Pucinski Maine 2 Hathaway N.C. 4 Galifianakis Oklahoma - 2 Edmondson S.D. - 2 Abourezk Note: Louisiana - 7 -- Edwards elected Governor 2/1/72 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 25, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT FROM: Harry S. Dent AD SUBJECT: 1972 Governors' Races At present there are 29 Democrat Governors and 21 Re- publicans, plus our governorships in Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico - all now elective. Of the 18 seats up this year, we could win 9 and lose 9, giving the same count next January of 29 to 21. Potential losers are: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Utah. Winners (some very close) should be: Delaware, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia. Luis Ferre should hold on in Puerto Rico. Here are the Governor race .comments: ARKANSAS: Democrat Sure, Bumpers (D) There is no way Bumpers can be successfully challenged this year. He has no big vulnerabilities. DELAWARE: GOP Possible, Peterson (R) Peterson should win, but he has had budget problems and some party trouble. He is now improving. Ex-Speaker Earl McGinnis has announced for the Democrat nod and a few more may try. page 2 ILLINOIS: Democrat Possible, Ogilvie (R) Ogilvie is pulling up, but he's still behind. He has a pri- mary challenge, Dr. John Mathis, but Ogilvie will win. There are no money problems. Looks like an uphill horse race against Lt. Gov. Paul Simon. INDIANA: Democrat Possible, Whitcomb (R) Ex-Gov. Matt Welsh is out front. Only Ruckelshaus would have a chance, and there's concern whether to risk him. Speaker Otis (Doc) Bowen has announced for us, but can't beat Welsh. The party is coming back together with a new chairman, James T. Neal. IOWA: GOP Possible, Ray (R) Ray will kill Jepsen in the primary and should go on to beat ex-State Treasurer Paul Franzenburg in November. Ray beat him in 1968 by 93,000 votes. KANSAS: Democrat Possible, Docking (D) Much depends on whether popular Docking goes for Governor or Senator. Atty. Gen. Vern Miller is also popular and waiting to go if Docking doesn't. We will run U. S. Atty. Robert Roth or ex-Gov. John Anderson. Our Lt. Gov., Reynolds Schultz, is weak. Democrat advantage here. MISSOURI: GOP Possible, Hearnes (D) State Auditor Kit Bond is our best bet, says an MOR poll, and is only 1 point behind the Democrats. Our people feel we can win with this dynamic and articulate young man. The Democrat nod will go to Earl Blackwell, Joseph Teasdale, or William Morris. We have a few more interested also - Bus King, Steve Burns, Harvey Engie, and Gene McNary. page 3 MONTANA: Democrat Possible, Anderson (D) We would be better off with Anderson running for re-election, but he bailed out. Also, Atty. Gen, Woodhall and Speaker Lucas backed out on our side. Frank Dunkle, Game Com- mission Chairman, is the only GOP face on the scene now, and the Lt. Gov., Thomas Judge, can probably beat him. We still have time. What we need is a good candidate. NEW HAMPSHIRE: GOP Possible, Peterson (R) Peterson should survive Bob Hill and Roger Crowley, the only Democrat probable now. No final judgment can be reached until the Legislature finishes its tax troubles. Fiscal woes could undo Peterson in November. NORTH CAROLINA; Democrat Possible, Scott (D) Jim Gardner will beat Jim Holshouser 2-1 in the GOP primary and run a close race against Lt. Gov. Pat Taylor in November. If the President sweeps good in North Carolina, Gardner could win. Now he's 11-points behind Taylor. The Democrat field is crowded. Gardner is all out for the President this time and has the money. NORTH DAKOTA: GOP Possible, Guy (D) Guy is retiring, and Congressman Arthur Link is the Democrat leader. Lt. Gov. Dick Larsen is our best bet over Frank Larson, a banker, and Robert McCarney. Our people fecl Dick Larsen will win. RHODE 1SLAND: GOP Possible, Licht (D) This is our brightest pickup possibility. Herb DeSimone lost by . 3% in 1970 and a Becker poll now shows him way ahead because Licht promised no tax increase in beating Chaffee and then raised taxes. page 4 SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Sure, Kneip (D) Kneip will be hard to beat because he's doing okay and we have too many troubles and no first-rate candidate, though several should contest - Bob Bartron, Gordon Mydland, Joe Barnett, Earl Thompson, and Bob Burns. TEXAS: Democrat Sure, Smith (D) Smith has scandal problems but is fighting hard. Lt. Gov. Barnes is expected to take him and win in November. There are hints of Barnes scandals too. On our side, the leader- ship and Tower aren't encouraging any real effort except for Al Fay to stop maverick conservative State Senator Hank Grover in a primary with 7 contenders. The Democrats have 10 contenders. UTAH: Democrat Possible, Rampton (D) This will be a sure thing for the Democrats if Rampton runs again. He is expected to do SO. The two most likely GOP candidates are State Senator W. Hughes Brockbank and Salt Lake County Commissioner William Dunn. Both credible individuals. VERMONT: GOP Possible, Davis (R) We can hold this if Gov. Dean Davis (70) goes again. He indicates he will If not, it'll be tough. WASHINGTON: GOP Possible, Evans (R) Gov. Evans will have a tough fight against State Senator Martin Durkan (likely) or Seattle Mayor Wesley Uhlman, If Jackson is on the national ticket, Evans could lose. Polls show, how- ever, that Evans is not being held responsible for unemploy- ment there. page 5 WEST VIRGINIA: GOP Possible, Moore (R) Arch Moore is slightly ahead of Jay Rockefeller now in the polls. Moore has improved since last year. Being Chair- man of the National Governors has helped. The Jack Anderson efforts to hurt Moore on tax problems has not penetrated wild and wonderful West Virginia. Strip mining is an issue there. This hurt Rockefeller. Also, Byrd and Randolph should help Moore. Tab "A" is a map showing the Governors races. (We already lost Louisiana, but Dave Treen did well with 43%.) GOVERNOR/LEGISLATURE (Name and Percentage Last Election) PETERSON 45.7 MAINE MONTANA CANADA you U: NORTH OAKOTA MINNESOTA DAVIS 57.0 IDAHO CURTIS 50.1 L UL ANDERSON OREGON GUY 53.8 MICH ANDERSON SARGENT 54.8 WISCONSIN Nr L 54.1 SOUTH DAKOTA UL UL McCALL UL MYOMING UL U MICHIGAN 55.7 U ROCKEFELLER LICHT ANDRUS KNEIP LUCEY MILLIKEN 50.4 NEVADA 52.2 UL 54.9 54.6 50.0 PENNSYLVANIA MESKILL HATHAWAY NEBRASKA LLINOIS SHAPP 53.8 OHIO 1 ЛВ UL 55.3 62.7 1973 UL60.7 L COLORADO EXON GILLIGAN O'CALLAGHAN 54.3 MISSOURI 54.3 ULPETERSON 50.2 U KANSAS UL RAMPTON UL MANDEL 68.7 LOVE DOCKING HEARNES NORTH CAROLINA 65.2 REAGAN ARIZONA 52.4 54.4 SCOTT 52.9 NEW MEXICO 60.8 OKLAHOMA TENNESIVE DUNN 52.7 TEXAS ARKANSAS 51.9 CAROLINA HALL GEORGIA ALABAMA UL WEST 1972 48.4 MISSISSIPPI KING 52.1 GOP GOV. UP WILLIAMS 51.8 BUMPERS 50.7 62.1 CARTER DEMO GOV. UP 59.3 LOUISIANA 1971 WALLACE 11 REPS ALASKA TOTAL 23 WILLIAMS 74.5 12 DEMS 70.3 MEXICO FLORIDA EGAN McKEITHEN 10 OTHER 51.9 100.0 SMITH GOP GOV. BURNS 53.6 5 HAWAII ASKEW 55.6 LEGISLATURE of 56.9 U-UPPER HOUSE CONTROLLED BY GOP L-LOWER HOUSE CONTROLLED BY GOP Courtesy of: The Republican National Committee February 28, 1972 DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINISTR. FIVE MARKING E.O. 12065, Section 6-102 CONF IDENTIAL/EYES ONLY By Ef NAL , Date 3-29-82 MEMORANDUM FOR: THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FROM: HARRY S. DENT Governor John West of South Carolina is acting as Larry O'Brien's private agent in trying to handle George Wallace. West hinted in a South Carolina newspaper interview over the weekend that Wallace might be used by the Democrats in the general election as Thurmond was used by the Republicans in 1968. West then went off the record to tell this reporter, Lee Bandy, who writes for the Nashville Banner and The State of Columbia, S. C., that he has actually been assigned the mission of making a deal with Wallace to get him to stay a Democrat in the fall and campaign for the Democrat nominee and the Democrat candidates generally. This is a slim hope unless their price is mighty high, but this explains why O'Brien and others are beginning to soften in their attitude on Wallace. bc: Bob Haldeman