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This file contains:
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: information on a DNC telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972
From Joanou to Dailey RE: a scheduled Democratic National Committee Telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/20/1972
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: information from the American Broadcasting Company on a Democratic National Committee telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/20/1972
Handwritten note for Strachan RE: list of state CRP chairmen. Eight lists of announced and confidential state chairmen attached. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recently discussed campaign topics. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Handwritten notes relating to plans for the 1972 Republican National Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/4/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: preventing disruptions at the Republican National Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972
From Dean to Haldeman RE: information on potential disruptions of the Republican National Convention. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972
From Joanou to Strachan RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972
Competitive Analysis Report of various Democratic candidates for president. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Second Competitive Analysis Report of Democratic presidential candidates. 30 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: the third competitive analysis report. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972
Third Competitive Analysis Report of Democrats running for president in 1972. 27 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: Competitive Analysis Report number four. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/24/1972
Fourth Competitive Analysis Report of Democratic candidates for president in 1972. 30 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes relating to "K," Scali, Perot, and others. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on various topics, such as Ed Nixon and information from Dailey, obtained from "K." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/2/1972
Handwritten notes on "Time" and Mao obtained from "K." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Seversen and various political figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Seversen a House vote relating to housing development. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 2/17/1972
Handwritten notes on campaign figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
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26145950
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WHSF: Contested, 30-2
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dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26145950
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 30-2
description
This file contains:
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: information on a DNC telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972
From Joanou to Dailey RE: a scheduled Democratic National Committee Telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/20/1972
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: information from the American Broadcasting Company on a Democratic National Committee telethon. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/20/1972
Handwritten note for Strachan RE: list of state CRP chairmen. Eight lists of announced and confidential state chairmen attached. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recently discussed campaign topics. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Handwritten notes relating to plans for the 1972 Republican National Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/4/1972
From Higby to Strachan RE: preventing disruptions at the Republican National Convention. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972
From Dean to Haldeman RE: information on potential disruptions of the Republican National Convention. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/7/1972
From Joanou to Strachan RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972
Competitive Analysis Report of various Democratic candidates for president. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Second Competitive Analysis Report of Democratic presidential candidates. 30 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: the third competitive analysis report. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972
Third Competitive Analysis Report of Democrats running for president in 1972. 27 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell RE: Competitive Analysis Report number four. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/24/1972
Fourth Competitive Analysis Report of Democratic candidates for president in 1972. 30 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes relating to "K," Scali, Perot, and others. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on various topics, such as Ed Nixon and information from Dailey, obtained from "K." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/2/1972
Handwritten notes on "Time" and Mao obtained from "K." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Seversen and various political figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Seversen a House vote relating to housing development. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], 2/17/1972
Handwritten notes on campaign figures. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
30
2
3/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell
RE: information on a DNC telethon. 1 pg.
30
2
3/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Joanou to Dailey RE: a scheduled
Democratic National Committee Telethon. 1
pg.
30
2
3/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell
RE: information from the American
Broadcasting Company on a Democratic
National Committee telethon. 1 pg.
30
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten note for Strachan RE: list of
state CRP chairmen. Eight lists of
announced and confidential state chairmen
attached. 9 pgs.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Page 1 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
30
2
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recently
discussed campaign topics. 2 pgs.
30
2
3/4/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes relating to plans for the
1972 Republican National Convention. 1 pg.
30
2
2/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Higby to Strachan RE: preventing
disruptions at the Republican National
Convention. 1 pg.
30
2
2/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dean to Haldeman RE: information on
potential disruptions of the Republican
National Convention. 3 pgs.
30
2
3/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Joanou to Strachan RE: attached
documents. 1 pg.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Page 2 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
30
2
Campaign
Report
Competitive Analysis Report of various
Democratic candidates for president. 9 pgs.
30
2
Campaign
Report
Second Competitive Analysis Report of
Democratic presidential candidates. 30 pgs.
30
2
3/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell
RE: the third competitive analysis report. 1
pg.
30
2
Campaign
Report
Third Competitive Analysis Report of
Democrats running for president in 1972. 27
pgs.
30
2
3/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Dailey, through Magruder, to Mitchell
RE: Competitive Analysis Report number
four. 1 pg.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Page 3 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
30
2
Campaign
Report
Fourth Competitive Analysis Report of
Democratic candidates for president in 1972.
30 pgs.
30
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes relating to "K," Scali,
Perot, and others. 1 pg.
30
2
3/2/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes on various topics, such as
Ed Nixon and information from Dailey,
obtained from "K." 1 pg.
30
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes on "Time" and Mao
obtained from "K." 1 pg.
30
2
>
Domestic Policy
Other Document
Handwritten notes on Seversen and various
political figures. 1 pg.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Page 4 of 5
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
30
2
2/17/1972
Domestic Policy
Other Document
Handwritten notes on Seversen a House vote
relating to housing development. 1 pg.
30
2
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes on campaign figures. 1 pg.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Page 5 of 5
Committee
for the Re-election
of the President 1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920
March 21, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
PETER H. DAILEY
Attached is further information on the telethon planned by
the Democratic National Committee prior to their convention.
CONFIDENTIAL
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
TO:
PETE DAILEY
FROM:
PHIL JOANOU
SUBJECT:
Democratic Telethon
Following is an interim report on the Democratic Committee
Telethon on ABC. The show is to begin Saturday, July 8, at
10:00 p.m., ending Sunday, July 9 at 5:00 p.m.
Time costs are $610,000. This does not include cable charges
and studio time. These additional costs are still being
negotiated, and could raise the total package costs to over
$1,000,000. ABC reports that it will be 2 to 3 weeks until
the final costs are worked out. ABC stations have an option
whether to run the show or not. Most of them will.
ABC believes the Democrats will use the show for fund-raising,
although subject matter has not been discussed.
ABC will give us an equal opportunity as soon as they have
finalized this deal. George Karalekas is in touch with ABC
and will keep us posted on developments.
CC: Bill Novelli
Mike Scott
Mike Lesser
George Karalekas
Committee
for the Re-election
of the President
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920
March 20, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
PETER II. DAILEY As.
SUBJECT:
Democratic Pre-Convention Telethon
We have just been informed by the American Broadcasting Company
that the Democratic Committee has purchased time for a 19 hour
telethon to begin Saturday, July 8, at 10:00 p.m., ending at
5:00 p.m. on Sunday, July 9. It is our understanding that it
may be interupted with newscasts. We do not have full infor-
mation as to its content. Probably it will be used as a fund-
raiser.
Similar time has been offered to the Republicant National Commit-
tee (or the Committee for the Re-Election of the President --
ABC is somewhat confused on this matter). They have asked us to
respond prior to the close of business on Friday, March 24.
Since details are rather limited at this time, this is for your
information only. Further details and a recommendation will
follow.
CONFIDENTIAL
Gordon Strachan
-your state
Chairmen list
updated sheets.
March 20, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MARYLAND
Announcement date: December 15, 1972
HEADQUARTERS
MARYLAND COMMITTEE FOR THE
OFFICE:
RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
(no phone at present)
7979 Old Georgetown Road
Bethesda, Maryland
******
NIXON STATE
Edward P. Thomas
(301) 267-5467
CHAIRMAN:
Senate of Maryland
or
office: Carroll and Frederick County
(301) 662-2777
Annapolis, Maryland
home: 710 Wyngate Drive
(301) 663-5765
Frederick, Maryland
******
EXECUTIVE
David Neideffer
DIRECTOR:
c/o Headquarters
3
home: #3 Pooks Hill, Apt. 806
(301) 530-8375
Bethesda, Maryland 20014
******
1st Vice-
Robert H. Marks, Jr.
Chairman
home: 3933 Fox Hill Drive
home: (301) -465-2492
Ellicott City, Md. 21042
office: (301) 477-6067
******
CHAIRMAN
John Shmorhun
home: (301) 442-2329
Nationalities
3125 W. Ivory Road
Committee
West Friendship, Md. 21794
office:
(3Q1) 765-6508
******
*
indicates entry not in previous listing
March 17, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
* DELAWARE
Announcement date: not announced to date
NO HEADQUARTERS OFFICE
AT PRESENT
******
NIXON STATE
William R. Campbell, Jr.
(302) 656-5483
CHAIRMAN:
office:
President, John W. Rollins and Assoc.
2401 Pennsylvania Avenue
Wilmington, Delaware 19806
home:
2605 Pennington Drive
(302) 475-3794
Wilmington, Delaware 19810
******.
*indicates entry not in previous listing, or change
March 14, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
CALIFORNIA
Announcement date: February 4, 1972
HEADQUARTERS
*
CALIFORNIA COMMITTEE FOR THE
* (213) 484-1330
OFFICE:
RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
1670 Wilshire Blvd.
Los Angeles, California 90017
******
NIXON STATE
Governor Ronald Reagan
(916) 445-2841
CHAIRMAN:
State Capitol
Sacramento, California 95814
******
address EXECUTIVE
Mr. Lyn Nofziger
mail to: DIRECTOR:
c/o of HEADQUARTERS
(address above)
******
temporary
Mr. Lyn Nofziger
(213) 670-8111
residence:
Airport Marina Hotel
Los Angeles, California 90045
March 6, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
NEW YORK
Announcement date; December 15, 1971
NIXON STATE
Governor Nelson Rockefeller
(518) GR4-7000 (Albany)
CHAIRMAN:
Executive Chambers
Albany, New York 12224
(212) 582-7030 (NYC)
******
*
indicates entry not in previous listing
Confidential
March 17, 1972
MISSOURI
Announcement date: December 22, 1971
HEADQUARTERS
MISSOURI COMMITTEE FOR THE
OFFICE:
RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
(314) 862-2460
130 S. Bemiston, Suite 309
if no answer call
St. Louis, Missouri 63105
(314) 727-7963
Exec.Secy. - Mrs. Mildred Huffman
******
NIXON STATE
Lawrence K. Roos
CHAIRMAN:
c/o of Headquarters
(address above)
office: Supervisor, St. Louis County
(314) 889-2016
home:
943 Tirrill Farms Road
(314) WY3-3766
St. Louis County, Missouri
******
* CAMPAIGN
*
Mr. Warren Morgens
COORDINATOR:
c/o of Headquarters
(address above)
(314) 241-0455
home:
300 Mansion House Apt. 2315
St. Louis, Missouri 63102
*
indicates not in previous listing
March 20, 1972
MONTANA
Announcement date: March 6, 1972
MONTANA COMMITTEE FOR THE
* HEADQUARTERS
RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MAIL:
Drawer "p"
Missoula, Montana 59801
******
NIXON STATE
G. W. Deschamps (State Senator)
(406) 549-0535
CHAIRMAN:
District No. 26, Missoula County
Route 2, Mullen Road
Missoula, Montana 59801
******
* indicates not in previous listing
March 20, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
NORTH DAKOTA
NO HEADQUARTERS
OFFICE AT PRESENT
*
*
*
NIXON STATE
John Rouzie
(701) 223-7750
CHAIRMAN:
216 Avenue F
or
West Bismarck, North Dakota 58501
(701) 523-3261
******
* CO-CHAIRMAN
Mrs. Winston Register
(701) 772-4324
3209 Belmont
Grand Forks, North Dakota 58201
CONFIDENTIAL
March 20, 1972
SOUTH DAKOTA
Announcement date:
March 8, 1972
NO HEADQUARTERS OFFICE
AT PRESENT
*
NIXON STATE CHAIRMAN
W. E. "Obie" O'Brien
office: Dakota State College
(605) 256-3551
c/o Karl Mundt Library
Ext. 228
Madison, South Dakota
home: 215 North Chicago Avenue
(605) 256-4898
Madison, South Dakota 57042
******
VICE-CHAIFMAN - EAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mrs. M. O. Lee (Wanda)
home: 438 Jefferson Blvd.
(6C5) 352-5038
Huron, South Dakota
VICE-CHAIRMAN - WEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mrs. Robert Lee (Dode)
home: Boulder Canyon Route
(605) 347-3225
Sturgis, South Dakota 57788
******
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Recent tems from
the campaign include:
3/4- 1) noffiger's California
3/14 reportste Reagan
2) Wisconsin primary
rally information;
3) Peter Dailey's concerns
about advertising expendities
4) Schedules of Spokesm
within act; the compaign spending
:9:60
MAMEGIAH 8.11
:OT
NATURATE Mooses
:MORT
may amet theret
ebulin ist
sind lew 33 (i THE
MILE
proming
XF
pritam owen
out sunogates in wise
and Colil
as
middless
3/4
Rnc Convention
Cong Rhodes, Cooperman Bill Timmons, Boe Flanign,
all Kuperman (madioon Sq Gon), ha Rue
Program of Convention: Boe Flanigan
Keeperman devel ideas for cemp
1
Script t- w/ spars spe
set onteleprompter + cut
Q
2
close are TV to get coler contrile
tenven Center arena
3
Use Slars - Taft Schuler lists
homlle 15-20 min forums
Rhodes- - deep ander mon last
GOP - Govenment ofthe People
al Keeperman - source of Reson's the
0 me my
Shriber celebs write colums
treadership by Coverage of Convertions
for I mo before Convention
to build audience
Platform - while announced
Peter
beal on Screen (15'X20')
Dailey
on 3 sides, explained u/slides,
Fem
pictures
wolper
$200,000
Scaplex-de-monis
Danny Todd Conlelaging
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 10, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
Keep riding herd on John with regard to the possible disruptions
at the RNC. Also, one of the points you should raise with John
is the fact that even though diversions haven't been too successful,
the fact that we have a diversion going on that shows good kids
doing a constructive thing, versus the people trying to disrupt the
demonstration will probably be helpful.
Attachment
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
JOHN DEAN
A
SUBJECT:
Potential Disruptions at the
Republican National Convention
In response to my memorandum of January 31, 1972 summarizing
present intelligence regarding the potential for disruptions at the
GOP Convention in San Diego, you have requested information
regarding the "positive things that are planned. 11
At the outset, I might say that I find that the present intelligence
information does have some positive elements. First, it indicates
that the "anti" groups are disorganized, that there is more talk
than action, and that there is friction between the national organi-
zations and the local San Diego organizations. Rest assured that
nothing is being done to change this situation and, in fact, every-
thing possible is being done to preserve it as long as possible.
Second, I find virtually no serious discussion among the "anti"
groups regarding use of confrontation techniques (a la May Day
variety) at the San Diego Convention. Their goal is numbers
large numbers. In fact, such old warriors as Hayden, Rubin,
Hoffman and Dellinger have privately confided that they feel that
they will only succeed if they have a mass demonstration, without
incident!
By way of planning, there is little that can be done to affect the
"anti" groups until they get down to serious planning themselves.
At this time, we are doing what is possible to keep their plans
from developing in a manner that will cause difficulty in holding the
convention.
-2-
I also find a very positive situation in the preparedness planning
by the city and state officials for any type of demonstration.
From the Governor's office to the Mayor's office to the Sheriff's
and Police Chief's offices, detailed plans are being made. When
I first began focusing on the San Diego demonstration potential
I was alarmed at the lack of understanding and appreciation of
the demonstration potential by the responsible officials. In the
ensuing months, however, I have found them taking every step
necessary to deal with and control any demonstration. The city
has some 20 different task forces working on this one problem.
The task forces are composed depending on the focus of
study -- of city, state and federal officials. While many of the
task forces are primarily studying the law enforcement and
related problems, others are reviewing such matters as rock
festivals, surfing contests, etc.
Your memorandum to me (via Strachan) specifically raises the
matter of "football games, surfing contests, and rock concerts
11
as things we should be planning for. While I agree that some such
activity is appropriate, I also feel that such planning is not an
answer to the potential problems. Activities of this nature might
serve two purposes: divert the kids from the convention and/or
keep them busy while there. I seriously question the diversionary
tactic. It has been tried on several occasions and has failed. As
an observer of every major demonstration in the United States in
the last three years, I know of it only partially succeeding once,
i. e., Portland, Oregon, American Legion Convention. If such
activities are employed as a means of giving the kids something
to do to keep them out of trouble, I agree it has some potential;
but we should keep in mind the fact that such activities can also
attract, as well as divert and I don't think we should do anything
to attract more kids to California during August of 1972.
Mayor Wilson has promised to send me copies of the reports of all
the task forces, which should give us the details of all the planning
activities.
In brief, the picture is not that horrible. Yes, there may be a
large number of long haired freaks roaming around San Diego
during our convention, but the plans have been made to control
them -- should that be necessary. I have no hesitation in offering
this prediction:
-3-
-- there will be somewhere between 250, 000 -
450, 000 (maximum) demonstrators --
-- the great majority will be orderly -- and --
-- there will be ample law enforcement people
trained and able to deal with any situation
which may arise.
There is also this very positive thought -- the demonstrations
could very well completely fizzle. As you know, the leaders are
calling for no less than a million kids. However, if the national
climate is calm, they might have trouble getting 100, 000 interested
in San Diego. How's that for a pollyanna?
I will keep you posted on the positive as well as negative sides of
this situation as they develop.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
March 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM
TO:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
PHIL JOANOU
Attached are #1 and #2 of the Competitive Analysis reports.
We would appreciate your comments and suggestions.
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
Report #1, Week of 2/28-3/3/72
MUSKIE
Travel
2/21 Beverly Hills: fund-raising dinner;
2/22 San Francisco: fund-raising dinner;
2/23 Wisconsin: walking tour;
2/24 Chicago: meeting with Cook County Democratic Comm.;
Oak Park, Ill.: speech at Rosary College;
2/25 Sarasota; Clearwater; Tampa; St. Petersburg, Fla.
campaigning;
2/26 Concord; Franklin; Laconia, N.H.; campaigning;
Hartford, Conn.: Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner.
Media
TV
Not available
Radio
Manchester, N.H., 2/28, station WGRR, commercial
Senior Citizens: proposed we establish a program
of housing security to provide regular monthly
payments that could meet 'property taxes, or
mortgage payments, or rental payments that reflect
higher property taxes.
Miami, Fla., 3/1, station WFAB, commercial
Anti-Wallace Statement: implied that Wallace
would run the country as a dictator without
Congress and that only Muskie would truly
represent all Americans.
Miami, Fla., 3/1, station WFUN, commercial
Inflation: stated we have not come to grips with
the forces that produce inflation and that
managing the economy is going to be a first-
priority item.
Analysis
Not enough data to develop meaningful analysis of
Muskie's media thrust.
Finances
Personal
Stated personal worth is $153,141, and income
in 1971 totaled $64,485.
Campaign
Appears to be in trouble, financially, although
Aides say not in the red yet. Six or seven staffers
were transferred to state organizations while six
others were let go. Many staffers asked to take pay
cut or work on volunteer basis. Herb Hadad, Deputy
Press Secretary, was let go and his duties absorbed
by Hadley Roff whose salary is being paid by Sen.
John Tunney.
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
-2-
(MUSKIE)
Muskie's whistle-stop campaign in Fla. came to
$5,852.52.
Endorsements
Former Governor of Conneticut, Chester Bowles,
endorsed Muskie. In California, both Mexican-
American members of the State Legislature endorsed
Muskie and announced formation of "Viva Muskie",
a national drive for support of Spanish speaking
Americans.
Polls
California
2/4-2/7 indicated that President Nixon leads Muskie
in a four-way race by 4% (44% to 40%). In a head-
to-head confrontation, Muskie leads Nixon by 3%
(48% to 45%). A poll of State Democrats shows
Muskie leading HHH by 5% (28% to 23%), although
Kennedy edged Muskie in the personal preference
column (24% to 23%) Muskie was far ahead as best
candidate to beat Nixon (30%).
New Hampshire
Results of a "straw vote" taken at Keene State College
showed McGovern with 227 of the 735 votes cast and
Muskie pulling only 97 votes (running fourth behind
McCloskey with 177 and Nixon with 146). A poll
conducted by N.H. public TV network (2/1 - 2/3) showed
Muskie receiving 58% of the votes in the Primary and
McGovern second with 19%.
Tennessee
A poll commissioned by Muskie showed him trailing
Wallace by 6% (29% to 23%), and HHH third with 17%.
Minnesota
A poll conducted by the Minnesota Tribune in February
showed Muskie to be the strongest Democratic candidate
by 38%. He leads HHH in his home state by 9%
(38% to 29%).
Gallup Poll
of Democrat voters (conducted 1/7 - 10 and 2/4 - 7)
showed Muskie leading Kennedy by 5% (29% to 24%), and
without Kennedy, Muskie leads HHH by 10% (39% to 29%).
Muskie showed strongest in the East with 47% and
weakest in the South with 28%.
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
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(MUSKIE)
AFL-CIO Polls Humphrey leads Muskie in the local COPE polls
taken in Atlanta (35.3% to 33.9%), in Dallas
(42.9% to 38.1%), and in Cincinnati (49.5% to
36.5%), In the Florida branch of COPE, Jackson
is the first choice and Muskie is third.
Issues
Busing
Rejected outright any Constitutional Amendment
prohibiting court-ordered busing and added, "I
don't believe we ought to clutter up the Constitution
with that kind of matter." (Chicago Tribune, 2/19)
Health
Recommended Government spend $90 million next year
to establish 180 health maintenance organizations
across the country to which people would pay low
annual fee for comprehensive low-cost health care.
(Miami, AP wire, 2/15)
Sr. Citizens
Proposed a $50 million addition to Law Enforcement
Assistance Administration for granting local police
department funds to protect older citizens from
crime. (Press release; 2/17)
Space
Told Florida AFL-CIO he does not favor ending all
space programs: "I don't propose discontinuing the
kind of program that finds out where pollution is
coming from." (UPI wire, 2/17)
China
Thinks President had a difficult task in Peking.
Vietnam
Believes Vietnam war stands between us and the future
of this country and that if the money spent on the
war had been applied to problems at home we wouldn't
need to worry about busing now. (Fund-raising dinner
speech, Beverly Hills, 2/22)
Analysis
The "straw vote" question on busing on the March 14
ballot may help Muskie - those who oppose busing can
still vote for Muskie if they agree with him on most
other issues. If the question were not on the ballot,
they might have voted for Wallace soley as protest
against busing.
Muskie continues to look strong: in Georgia he appears
to be well ahead in the battle for Convention delegates,
although most of the delegation is running uncommited.
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
-4-
(MUSKIE)
Muskie's "cool" overheated twice last week: once
in New Hampshire when he tearfully berated Loeb
for insulting his wife and once in Florida when
the "yippie" leader Rubin heckled him about Vietnam.
According to the press, however, New Hampshire voters
are about evenly divided on the Loeb incident, some
are glad Muskie "stood up to Loeb", others think he
is a "cry baby" and not presidential material.
As of today, Muskie still appears to be the strongest
contender for the Democratic nomination.
Muskie versus Nixon: a recent telephone poll conducted
for the Boston Globe showed that of 2,000 Massachusetts
residents who are planning to vote in the April 25
primary, Muskie is favored over President Nixon by a
2-to-1 margin.
*****
HUMPHREY
Travel
Not available
Media
Not available
Finances
Not available
Endorsements
Florida Attorney General, Robert Shevin, recently
endorsed HHH. This is the highest Florida State
official to endorse any candidate at this point.
Vince Exley, President, Florida Chapter of the
American Federation of Teachers gave endorsement.
People
Maryland Attorney General, Francis Burch, was named
State campaign manager.
Issues
China
Applauded Nixon's efforts to restore diplomatic
relations with Peking, BUT noted that concessions
were made by Nixon and none by the Chinese, adding
"it is now clear that the rug has been pulled out
from under the Taiwanese."
Agriculture
Criticized Agriculture Department's new plan of
delivering full payment to feed grain growers in July -
and calls for the previous advance payment system to
be reinstituted.
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
-5-
(HUMPHREY)
Busing
Continues anti-busing stand: "it hasn't helped
the child, it hasn't brought about quality
education, it hasn't solved our racial problems
quality education is the issue, not busing."
HHH voted against the Griffin Amendment and for
the compromise (2/29/72).
Analysis
HHH continues to court the labor and farm vote.
Appears also to be courting minority groups, too,
if his California slate to the Miami convention
is any indication: 48% women, 17% blacks, 16%
Spanish surname, 20% youth, 26% labor, and 9%
older Americans.
*****
JACKSON
Travel
Not available, but note he failed to return to
Washington to vote on the Griffin Amendment.
Media
TV
Not available
Radio
Miami, Fla. 2/29, station WGBS, commercial
Busing: explained his Constitutional
amendment against busing by saying:
"The Constitution should specify that no
governmental body has the right to transport
children against the wishes of their parents
from their home neighborhood to distant schools
solely for the purpose of achieving a racial
balance, and it (meaning his amendment) would
abolish once and for all a system of unequal
schools in America."
Analysis
According to a recent Gallup Poll, Jackson has 3%
of the electorate (the same as McCarthy) ! To overcome
this, he appears to be pulling out the stops in his
Florida media campaign. Some estimates are that he
already has purchased $170,000 of air time - well above
the $133,000 limit set by the National Democratic
Committee. Jackson has said that the limit gives an
unfair advantage to the better known candidates.
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
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(JACKSON)
Issues
Unemployment/ Jackson seems to be zeroing in on issues relating
Environment
to his forte of technological solution to problems.
In Wisconsin, he predicted U.S. airlines will have
to buy S.S.T's from foreign manufacturers with a
corresponding loss of jobs for Americans. He
proposed unemployed technical workers be put to work
on the problems of ecology.
Defense
Advocates enbarking on new major weapons and space
systems to meet a threat of Soviet lodgments in the
Middle East and the Indian Ocean.
Vietnam
Advocates even faster withdrawal of U.S. ground
troops, but warns that war frustrations may lead to
resurgent isolationism and the neglect of a credible
defense posture.
Busing
Categorically opposes the mandatory busing of children
for the sole purpose of achieving racial balance;
approves of busing only if "quality education is
assured at the end of the bus ride."
Crime
Promises more federal funds for additional judges,
prosecutors, public defenders and police. In return,
wants local jurisdictions to bring those charged with
crime to trial within 60 days.
Economy
Sees this as the over-riding issue and emphasizes
the re-establishment of a growing, expanding economy.
Analysis
Of all the candidates, Jackson seems to have the
most specific "platform" regarding pertinent issues.
He does not talk in vague generalities, but seems
to take strong positions on the issues. He is spending
heavily, particularly in Florida where his ability to
stay in the race will undoubtedly be decided. A
recent poll conducted by Premack & Associates in Florida,
showed Jackson with 8.47% (versus Wallace with 25.1%,
HHH with 12.86%, Muskie with 12.76%), a rise of 3.47%
in the past month. He has set up a campaign team of
98 workers for the April 4 primary in Wisconsin and
was the first Democrat to enter the New Mexico
Primary. In another recent popularity poll taken
in Pennsylvania, he was listed as the candidate most
likely to win the primary there.
*****
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
-7-
McGOVERN
Travel
Not available.
Media
TV
Not available.
Radio
Manchester, N.H., 2/27, station WGRR, commercial
Taxation: proposes eliminating "outrageous"
loopholes that enable large corporations to
shift their tax load to the working man. He
proposes relieving the property tax burden by
having the Government assume the major part of
education and welfare costs and he seeks to
phase out oil and gas depletion allowances.
Economy: proposes to increase foreign outlets
for American goods, government contracting to
private industry, and expanded public service
employment to assure a job for everyone. And,
reduction of the "main source of inflationary
pressure, wasteful and non-productive military
spending.
Health: proposes' a federally funded comprehensive
program of guaranteed health insurance for all
Americans and that the cost of prescription
drugs and hospital medical treatment be covered
by Medicare.
Sr. Citizens: proposes total social security
benefits to start at age sixty-two and an
increased minimum payment of $150 a month.
Proposes expanded housing programs for the elderly.
Vietnam: somewhat dramatic reading of a letter
from a soldier in Vietnam who supports McGovern's
"proposal to build a better, different and more
moral America" and who offers to join McGovern's
campaign organization.
Manchester, N.H., 2/28, station WGIR, commercial
Crime: backs up his tough stand on drugs by
listing the legislation he has proposed: the
Controlled Substance Act (to strengthen existing
drug laws) ; the Federal Drug Abuse and Drug
Dependence Act (to set up a national center for
research and treatment) ; the Drug Offenders'
Treatment and Rehabilitation Act (offering
professional help to convicted addicts)
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
-8-
(McGOVERN)
Sen. Kennedy Speaking for McGovern: tells
how McGovern fought and won against the old
"bureaucratic machinery in Washington" and
effectively gave direction and control to the
Food for Peace program. This statement from
Kennedy was made in 1968.
Sen. Kennedy Speaking for McGovern: again
Robert Kennedy's voice (taped in 1968)
praising McGovern's courage in speaking out
on issues and the course we followed in
Southeast Asia.
Analysis
Definitely taking stands on the issues via the media.
Will be interesting to see how and where and the extent
to which McGovern uses same commercials throughout the
primaries.
Issues
Busing
Lists this as a top priority issue, followed by
Vietnam, pollution, hunger, senior citizens. Has
accused Nixon of trying to make busing the number one
issue in the 1972 campaign. McGovern missed the
Griffin vote on busing, but did return to the Senate
to help defeat a subsequent vote on the amendment.
Drugs
Denied he had even advocated legalization of
marijuana, but in an earlier statement he indicated
that a more promising route would be to regulate
marijuana along the same lines as alcohol.
Analysis
McGovern, like Jackson, is taking definite (and in
some cases, strong) stands on the issues. While some
strategists believe that McGovern and McCarthy may have
no more than 30% of the delegates to the national
convention to split between them, it is nevertheless
the merit of the man that he has one of the best and
most professional campaign organizations around. For
example, in California, McGovern workers obtained
25,000 signatures (several thousand more than required)
to place him at the top of the primary ballot. His
aides think he will pick up 13 of the 46 Iowa delegates
to the Democratic convention. His latest endorsement
came from The Progressive, a national, liberal magazine
published in Wisconsin. And, on February 28th he
revealed a list of those who have contributed over
$1,000 to his campaign coffers which total $1.2 million
to date.
*****
(more)
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT
#1, con't
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WALLACE
Analysis
Does not appear to be a strong contender in the
Democratic race; however, he is definitely a power
to be reckoned with in the South. In 1964, he
received 43% of the total vote in Maryland and
34% of the vote in Wisconsin. Michigan State
Democratic leaders are now saying he will get
25% of the votes there due to the busing issue.
In short, he could end up with a sizeable delegation
to the convention in July from the North in addition
to his obvious Southern support. The upcoming
Florida primary private polls show him carrying
the State by a plurality of about 30%. He's third
among the Democrat contenders according to a
nationwide Harris poll taken in February - this is
the first time Wallace has been placed among the
"hopefuls".
On the other side of the fence: the Florida AFL-CIO
is strongly anti-Wallace, as is the Wisconsin Governor,
Patrick Lucey, who says he will actively campaign against
Wallace if Wallace begins to develop real strength in
his state. Florida Governor Askew may also decide
to endorse and campaign strongly for another candidate
as a means of heading. off Wallace.
*****
END
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT #2
Table of Contents
SUMMARY
Section I
POLLS
Section II
CANDIDATES
Section III
Muskie
page 1
Humphrey
page 7
Wallace
page 10
Lindsay
page 12
Jackson
page 16
McGovern
page 19
Kennedy
page 22
Ashbrook
page 23
APPENDIX
Section IV
(i)
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2
Section I
SUMMARY and BRIEFS
McCloskey
Abandoned Presidential race and filed
for the Republican nomination in the
17th Congressional District of California
on March 10.
Hartke
Has withdrawn from Presidential primary race.
Sanford
Terry Sanford, president of Duke University
and former Governor of North Carolina,
announced on March 8, that he would seek the
Democratic nomination for President. He is
entered in the May 6 primary election in
North Carolina. His candidacy was considered
a blow to Muskie who had enjoyed uncontested
possession of the middle ground in the race for
North Carolina's 64 delegates.
Jackson
Elated by the. New Hampshire results, now
thinks he has a good chance of coming in
second in the Florida race.
Humphrey
Also elated by the New Hampshire results,
campaigned strenuously in Florida, but
is still troubled by his "retread" image.
Wallace
Barnstorming on busing, as usual.
Lindsay
Ran the best organized and maybe the most
expensive campaign in Florida - may be the
most expensive campaign ever staged to win
the Vice President spot in July.
Muskie
Tired and it shows, but hanging on.
McGovern
Not working very hard in Florida, already
reving up for Wisconsin.
Kennedy
Lurking in the background.
(ii)
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2
Section II
POLLS
Nixon
A Gallup poll taken in late February, following
President Nixon's China trip, showed his popu-
larity at 56%, the highest point in 14 months.
The President's latest popularity rating repre-
sents the second successive increase in popular
approval since a January test.
Labor
Labor union leaders in the New York and New
Jersey area meeting on 3/11, gave Muskie 32.2%;
Humphrey 30.9%; Jackson 15.3%; McGovern 7.1%;
Wallace 4.8%; Nixon 4.5%; Lindsay 2.5% and
McCarthy 1.1%.
Rhode Island A poll conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 13 in Rhode
Island by the Providence Journal-Bulletin gave
Muskie 46%; Kennedy 21.3%; Humphrey 14.1%;
Lindsay 7.2%; McGovern 5.2%; Jackson 3.1%;
Wallace 3.1% of the votes in the May 23rd pri-
mary.
(iii)
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2
Section III
THE CANDIDATES
MUSKIE
A. ISSUES
Federal Tax Reforms
In a major speech on tax reform at the Miami
YM-YWHA on March 9, Muskie proposed a reform
program incorporating virtually every major
proposal made during the last decade by li-
beral Democratic economists. He proposed:
- a 20% reduction in the oil depletion allow-
ance;
- a one-fifth reduction in the depletion
allowance for gold, copper and all other
minerals;
- elimination of an exemption under which
holders of state or municipal bonds do
not pay Federal income taxes on the inter-
est;
- imposition of Federal taxes on capital
gains from property transferred at death;
- repeal. of the 7% investment tax credit
for purchase of new machinery and equipment
and repeal of the accelerated depreciation
rules under which businesses can deduct the
cost of equipment over a short period of
time;
- elimination of the system under which a
U.S. corporation can defer payment of
taxes on profits from a foreign subsidiary;
- abolition of the arrangement that permits a
corporation that exports goods to defer
taxes on 50% of its income SO long as the
exempted profits are reinvested in the com-
pany;
- strengthening of existing restrictions on
the amount of investment interest that may
be deducted;
- that investors in oil and gas wells no
longer be permitted to write off in a single
year the full production costs of a new well.
(more)
-1-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
THE CANDIDATES
MUSKIE
In addition, Muskie said, "As President, I
will fight to close an over-all total of
$14 billion in Federal tax loop-holes." He
failed to indicate, however, precisely what
he would do with the $14 billion in new re-
venues. It should also be noted that Muskie's
tax reform proposals followed by two months a
pledge by McGovern to redistribute income by
taxing the wealthy more heavily and giving
grants to the nation's poor. (New York Times -
3/10/72)
Campaign Contributions Muskie has tentatively decided to reveal the
sources of his campaign contributions, con-
tingent upon clearance with 20 large contri-
butors who might be reluctant to have their
names made public. He also is said to be
considering publishing his full Presidential
campaign expenditures. (NY Post - 3/11/72)
Agriculture
In a letter to Secretary Butz, Muskie urged
the Agriculture Department to make an advance
payment of 50% of expected Federal payments
to wheat and feed grain farmers. (UPI -
3/1/72)
Foreign Aid
"Today the bulk of our foreign aid dollars
are wasted and misdirected. Too much of it
goes for military assistance. If the program
can't be improved it should be cancelled. I
am certainly committed to reform in this area. "
(New Hampshire Political advertisement -
2/23/72)
Vietnam
Again proposed an immediate cessation to the
war and stated that if elected President, he
would set a date, "an actual day on the calen-
dar" for the withdrawal of all American troops.
He says, "That is the best way, perhaps the
only way, to get our prisoners of war home from
communist prison camps.' (New Hampshire poli-
tical advertisement 2/23/72)
-2-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MUSKIE
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
Television
$61,660 in Florida, covering Jacksonville,
Miami, Orlando and Tampa. (as of 3/10/72)
Radio
$11,985 in Florida, covering Jacksonville,
Miami, Orlando and Tampa. (as of 3/10/72)
Newspaper
$31,027 in Florida, covering Tallahassee,
Panama City, Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, St.
Petersburg, and West Palm Beach. (as of
3/10/72)
Creative
West Palm Beach, Fla., 3/3/72, station
WEAT-TV,commercial
Inflation: Muskie talks to Florida house-
wives about prices.
Miami, Fla., 3/3/72, station WPLG (TV), com-
mercial
General: urges Americans to "pursue what
they share together" and that by SO doing
"their different interests will be served
as well
"
Comment
According to the New York Times (3/8/72), only
Wallace and Muskie have cut back on their radio
and television plans in Florida, one presumably
because there is little doubt he will win the
Florida primary (Wallace), the other because he
still remains the Democratic front-runner. Flo-
rida (RNC rpt) Muskie media men scrapped a com-
mercial spot aimed at blue-collar workers after
they noticed a picture of Martin Luther King ap-
peared in the film.
Since the most Muskie can hope for is "second-
best" in Florida, he may be rechanneling a por-
tion of media expenses allotted to Florida to
Wisconsin where he potentially has a very good
chance of winning the primary on April 4. Or,
Muskie may very well have redirected a portion of
those funds towards a stronger grass-roots effort
in Florida, an area of obvious weakness in New
Hampshire.
-3-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MUSKIE
C. STRATEGY
Jewish Vote in Florida
A handbill from Muskie's campaign head-
quarters in Miami hails him as "a winner
fighting for a winning cause - the secur-
ity of Israel."
Florida
Muskie supporters ran a full-page ad in
the Miami Herald with a bigger-than-life-
size photograph of Wallace and a caption
that said "If you wouldn't give him the
Presidency, don't give him our primary."
Additionally, Muskie strengthened his
speaking attacks on Wallace, taped new
television commercials and considered
flying to Key West, which has been marked
by racial turmoil, to make an appeal for
harmony.
District of Columbia
Muskie will not run in the D.C. primary,
leaving Walter Fauntroy unopposed.
Georgia
Muskie efforts here appear hampered as
Governor Carter wants an uncommitted de-
legation at the convention.
Idaho
All but six Democrat members of the State
Legislature endorsed Muskie, but a liberal
anti-Muskie coalition is hard at work in an
effort to pick off delegates at the April
17 district caucuses.
Maine
The Main State Black Political Caucus wrote
to Muskie urging him to meet with them, but
so far, he has not agreed to such a meet-
ing.
Massachusetts
Delegates pledged to Muskie won the top
spot on 8 of 12 district primary ballots.
Missouri
Governor Hearnes wants at least 60 of the
State's 73 delegates to be pledged to
Muskie at the convention, but there is op-
position from the reform wingof the party.
North Carolina
Muskie has become the first contender to
officially file in the North Carolina pri-
mary.
-4-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MUSKIE
D. ANALYSIS
Muskie's failure to garner the 50% victory he SO hoped for in New
Hampshire and McGovern's surprise showing of 37% have cast grave
doubts upon Muskie's ability to go to the convention as the clear-
cut Democratic candidate.
Several factors may have played a significant role in the New Hamp-
shire outcome.
- Muskie's mistaken assumption that he would carry better than
a 50% margin led him to slacken his campaign efforts in that
State until a survey conducted by the Boston Globe showed he
had slipped 23 points in five weeks. He then returned to
the State and campaigned vigorously for the last week prior
to the primary
perhaps a bit too late because in the mean-
time
- McGovern's forces were exceptionally successful in gathering
support at the grass-roots level. They scoured the State
seeking old supporters of Eugene McCarthy and carefully
built a ground- swell of voters in areas which Muskie had
assumed were his (the blue-collar areas, for one).
- The Manchester Union Leader's persistent attacks on Muskie
and its labeling of him as "Moscow Muskie" led to an in-
correct perception of him in Manchester as being well to the
left of the far more leftish McGovern. It is interesting to
note Rowland Evans's and Robert Novak's comments in the
Washington Post (3/10/72):
"If Muskie can be wrenched out of his centrist position into
a leftish image in Manchester by one reactionary newspaper
publisher, can the national Republican apparatus do the same
nationwide come November?"
- Muskie's inability to come to grips with the pertinent issues
may have left him a blur in the minds of many would-be voters.
One of his big-name supporters there, in commenting after the
primary, said Muskie was "not riding the issues and not in
tune with the times."
- Muskie's initial disinclination to debate probably was a cor-
rect analysis of the situation, for, as it turned out, the
great debate was a crashing bore and while it probably didn't
cost him any votes, it's doubtful that it won him any, either.
-5-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MUSKIE
D. ANALYSIS con't
In Florida, Muskie's arduous campaign pace is taking its toll.
His attack on Wallace on March 11 was delivered with "no more
fervor than if he were giving a dissertation on citrus trees
"
according to the New York Times (3/12/72). When tired, Muskie's
temper becomes painfully short and he has been known to snap at
both the press and members of his audiences. Several of his Flo-
rida supporters have expressed concern that Muskie's searches
for funds and his widespread campaign for geographic support
might collapse in exhaustion before the nominating convention.
Muskie's middle of the road stand in Florida isn't helping him
to stand out from the "crowd" and the one issue on which he has
taken a definite stand (the space shuttle program which he op-
poses) may cost him votes there. In fact, he has a reputation
among many Floridians for "crawfishing" - a Florida term for
scuttling sideways on the big issues, like busing. On the other
hand, many Floridians who are anti-Wallace but not necessarily pro-
Muskie, will vote for him because they think he has the best chance
to beat Wallace.
Muskie's momentum as the national front-runner may carry him
through the Florida race to second place, but there seems to be
little doubt that President Nixon will carry this State in the
November elections.
*****
-6-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
HUMPHREY
A. ISSUES
Crime
At the Greater Miami Crime Commission dinner
(March 8), Humphrey called for a federal law,
patterned after the anti-kidnaping "Lindbergh
Law," to make the killing of a policeman, pri-
son guard or fireman a federal offense.
Drugs
At the same dinner, HHH said that if he is
elected President, one of his first acts will
be to seek agreement with foreign countries
which are the sources of narcotics, to halt the
drug traffic. Further, that he would make it
clear that they must either stop the flow or
"be regarded as an enemy of the U.S." and be
cut off from all military and economic aid.
Space Program
Humphrey favors the Space Shuttle proposal
(which ought to sit well with Florida voters).
Social Security
He favors a 50% boost in Social Security pen-
sions.
Cuba
Thinks it would be premature to establish
diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Busing
He is taking a cautious approach and phrasing
his statements carefully. Says some busing is
justified for quality education, but thinks
massive busing to achieve strict mathematical
racial quotas has not worked.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures (as of 3/10/72)
TV
$42,250, in Florida
Radio
$5,612, in Florida
Newspapers
$7,061, in Florida
Creative
Not available
-7-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
HUMPHREY con't
B. MEDIA con't
Comment
Humphrey is putting about $5,000 more into
his Florida television campaign than he
planned to a week ago, but it still remains
relatively small at an estimated budget of
$65,000.
He has scheduled five, live, prime-time
television broadcasts throughout the State,
answering questions phoned in by the viewers.
C. STRATEGY
Appearance
The 1972 Humphrey looks right up to date in
double-knit, wide-lapel suits, and chrome-
rimmed blue sun-glasses. He is working hard
to avoid the "has-been" and "loser" labels
and his energy (considering he is 60) is awe-
some.
Lorne Greene
Humphrey has teamed up with Lorne Greene (of
"Bonanza" fame) to add a bit of glamour to his
campaign and to attract the crowds.
Jewish Vote
The Washington Avenue office of the Humphrey
campaign headquarters in Miami is closed, ac-
cording to a notice in the window, from sun-
down Friday evening until Sunday morning, out
of respect for the Jewish Sabbath. Last week,
Humphrey placed a two-page ad in The Jewish
Floridian, a weekly newspaper, pointing out
that Senator Humphrey is the only candidate who
supports Israel's claims to the Jordanian sec-
tion of Jerusalem.
Florida
In his final week of campaigning in Florida,
HHH has been meeting people via helicopter.
This is part of his over-all campaign theme
that he is the "People's Democrat." He has
emphasized that his nomination will be the
result of the voter's wishes, not of the
bosses.
-8-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
HUMPHREY con't
C. STRATEGY
Pennsylvania
Delegates to the Pennsylvania Federation of
Labor Convention indicated an overwhelming
preference for HHH, giving him 83.7% of their
vote.
Rhode Island
A full slate of delegates pledged to HHH has
been entered in the Rhode Island primary.
The slate includes 30% women; 20% youth; and
5% black.
Puerto Rico
The former mayoress of San Juan, Puerto Rico,
Dona Felisa Rincon has endorsed the Senator
and will be working among the Spanish-speaking
communities.
California
HHH received the endorsements of three Cali-
fornia union leaders: Cornelius Wall (ILGWU)
Joseph DeSilva (Retail Clerks) ; and Stella
Epstein (United Teachers of Los Angeles).
Also, five California State Senators and three
Assemblymen have joined HHH's campaign.
D. ANALYSIS
Buoyed by Muskie's less than 50% vote in New Hampshire, HHH is talk-
ing confidently of winning the number two spot in the Florida pri-
mary. He has been concentrating on the Jewish voters and the senior
citizens in Florida and has spent considerable time wooing the youth
vote there. But, in spite of his jazzy new appearance, Humphrey is
still sounding as old-fashioned and virtuously simple as ever. The
Humphrey message conveys feelings and attitudes, but is short on
specific issues. His cautious approach to the busing issue in Flo-
rida places him with most of the other candidates, except Lindsay
and Jackson, and thus does not provide him with much of a vehicle
for getting votes. Most analysts continue to place Humphrey third
or fourth in the primary and that's about the best he should do there
on the 14th.
*****
-9-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
WALLACE
A. ISSUES
Supreme Court
Campaigning in Florida, Wallace said he will
urge the Democratic National Convention to
adopt a party plan requiring Supreme Court
Justices to go before the Senate every six
years and requiring district judges to run
for office.
China
Hedging on his criticism of the President's
trip to China, he said the U.S. should always
be willing to talk, but that he didn't think
"we should go to Peking to do the talking. "
Busing
No change.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures (as of 3/10/72) in Florida
TV
$34,030
Radio
$2,819
Newspaper
$8,692
Creative
West Palm Beach, Fla., 3/3, station WEAT-TV
Law and Order: Wallace telling viewers
that as President he would stand 100 per
cent behind every policeman and law en-
forcement official.
Comment
As the acknowledged front-runner in Florida,
Wallace thought it wise to recently cut back
on his television and radio spending in the
State. And, since assorted continuing polls
all show him with a healthy lead, he probably
was correct to save the money on a sure winner
and put it into his Alabama race.
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
WALLACE con't
C. STRATEGY
Florida
Florida Secretary of State, Richard Stone,
said nearly 3,000 Republican voters in six
of the state's most populous counties have
switched registration, apparently to vote
for Wallace.
Michigan
Michigan Secretary of State informed Wallace
that if he enters the May 16 primary as a
Democrat, he cannot appear on the state's
November election ballot as a third party
candidate. Similar laws exist in Indiana,
Pennsylvania, and Maryland.
D. ANALYSIS
Running in the primaries enables Wallace to whip up enthusiasm
among his supporters. Any adverse effect on the structure of the
American Independent Party can be discounted for the party is
nothing without Wallace. Entry in the primaries also cranks up the
Wallace campaign's money-making machine. But, most importantly,
his decision to enter the primaries has put him back on center
stage. He's the focal point of the current Florida campaign and
his fervent stand on the busing issue draws huge crowds, which he
adores.
The busing issue, his campaign theme, may not carry him outside
Florida and Alabama, however. President Nixon's reported forth-
coming statement on busing (to be announced after the March 14
primary) hopefully will settle the dust and clear the air on the
issue and, at the same time, leave Wallace without a cause. The
big fear among Democrats, of course, is that Wallace will lead a
third-party ticket, thus siphoning off some votes from the Demo-
cratic nominee. Since no one seems to be able to second guess the
irrepressible Wallace, it's a "wait and see" situation.
*****
-11-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
LINDSAY
A. ISSUES
Busing
Is maintaining his strong pro-busing stance
and criticized his Democratic rivals recently
for their favorable votes on the compromise
amendment. According to Lindsay, "the li-
beral leadership of the Senate caved in."
(AP, March 1, 1972)
Agriculture
In a filmed address to the Convention of the
National Farmers Union in Houston (Feb. 29,
1972) Lindsay made his first significant pro-
nouncements in the field of agriculture. He
stressed the need to preserve the small inde-
pendent farm and stop the exodus from rural
to urban America. He declared his support
for the Smith and Melcher Bills and the Family
Farm Act of 1972. He further stated he would
like to see legislation which would facili-
tate collective bargaining between farmers on
one side and handlers and processors on the
other. He was critical of Secretary Butz and
the Nixon Administration's agricultural poli-
cies in general.
Legalized
Abortion
In a speech in St. Petersburg, Florida on
March 6, Lindsay called for Federal legisla-
tion permitting abortions in all states.
Crime
At the March 8, Greater Miami Crime Commission
Dinner, Lindsay directed a major portion of
his address against Wallace, saying Wallace
"talks tough about crime," but that in Alabama,
the murder rate is 63% higher than the national
average and 62% higher than in New York City.
Kleindienst
In Jacksonville, Fla. on March 5, Lindsay called
on the Senate to reject the nomination of Rich-
ard G. Kleindienst as Attorney General, decry-
ing what he called, "the marriage between a
"
giant corporation and the Justice Department
-12-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
LINDSAY con't
A. ISSUES con't
China
Lindsay indicated he approved of the joint
communique issued after President Nixon's
China trip, adding that he welcomed "the
indication of increasing friendliness
between China and the United States
"
Gun Control
Strongly favors a gun control program and
a fire arms registration law.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures (as of 3/10/72)
Television
$66,450, in Florida
Radio
$8,830, in Florida
Newspaper
$2,062, in Florida
Creative
Miami, Fla., 3/2, station WCKT-TV
Charles Evers Endorsement: Mayor
Evers endorsed Lindsay as a man who
knows the problems of this country, who has
proven that he (Lindsay) is for all the
people, and has the courage to stand up and
fight for the rights of Americans.
Comment
According to one report, Lindsay has com-
mitted for $170,000 in broadcast time in
Florida, which will make him the biggest
media spender there. Lindsay has recruited
actor, Carroll O'Conner (Archie Bunker of
TV's "All in the Family"), and Medgar Evers,
the black mayor of Fayette, Mississippi, to
spark a last-ditch television blitz in Flo-
rida. O'Connor will talk about Lindsay's
Vietnam peace proposal that calls for with-
drawal, while Evers will plug the mayor's
record on civil rights in various one-minute
spots.
-13-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
LINDSAY con't
B. MEDIA con't
Comment con't
In addition, Lindsay is using television
commercials reminiscent of his 1965 and
1969 campaigns for mayor in New York: Lindsay
in shirt sleeves walking the streets; Lindsay
talking on the issues of the day; Lindsay
looking tall and handsome looming over crowds.
Lindsay, of all the candidates, is the most
suited to the television medium for he comes
across as attractive, strong and, to some,
sexy. People will see the image he wishes to
project and will not be too concerned with
what he is saying.
C. STRATEGY
Rhode Island
Lindsay's name will appear on the May 23
Rhode Island primary, but no delegate slate
will be offered. It appears that Lindsay will
campaign in that State.
New York
His '72 campaign already has begun in New York,
where Norman Levy, President of the City Tax
Commission, and Mrs. Eileen Preiss, of Nassau
County, will be co-chairmen of the campaign
committee. To date, only two significant New
York public officials - Assemblymen Antonio
Olivieri of Manhattan and Leonard Simon of
Brooklyn - have declared their support for
Lindsay.
Florida
Distributed pamphlets listing the ways in
which Lindsay serves New York's Jewish com-
munity, including special police protection
on holy days and the funding of Head Start
centers with an "exclusively Jewish clientele."
To date, Lindsay has spent 25 days campaigning
in Florida and an estimated $500,000.
-14-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
LINDSAY con't
C. STRATEGY con't
Campaign Contributions
In the March 8, New York Times, Mayor
Lindsay lists 1,000 donors who have
contributed $489,804 to his campaign.
Lindsay's Florida committee reported
on March 7 that $25,426 had been raised
there but did not list the contributors.
D. ANALYSIS
Lindsay has run the most exciting and professional campaign in
Florida. His staff spotted local issues that others missed, for
example, he was at Escambia Bay talking about "fishkills" (that's
three or four acres of pollution-poisoned fish), and attacking
American Cyanamid and Monsanto for dumping chemicals. His re-
search was New York-style, his scheduling and stamina took him to
twice as many places in a day, and his looks - well, no doubt, he
will enjoy a large women's vote in the Sunshine State. The moot
question, however, is whether his "let-me-entertain-you" campaign
style will win him a place in the sun as runner-up to Wallace. It
is doubtful. Lindsay will probably place third, possibly fourth,
depending upon how well Muskie and Humphrey show. If Lindsay comes
in second, it will be a new ball game since, with a strong showing
in Florida, he will have exhibited his viability as a national con-
tender for the Democratic nomination. It wouldn't be the first
time that looks and style have upset brains and ability.
*****
-15-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
JACKSON
A. ISSUES
Social Security
In West Palm Beach, Fla., Jackson told a
retirement community he would work for the
following: (1) no restrictions on collect-
ing other pensions, (2) automatic cost of
living adjustments every 6 months, (3) pay-
ments for drugs and X-rays, (4) payments
for dental care and glasses and (5) removal
of work restrictions.
Busing
Still maintaining his strong anti-busing
stance, but has been soundly criticized
for his charge that the other candidates
are hypocrites for sending their children
to private schools.
Education
In Miami, Jackson urged increased federal
spending for the education and training of
retarded children.
Equal Rights
Jackson has come under fire from Florida
women for his refusal to support the equal
rights amendment.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures (as of 3/10/72)
TV
$83,850 in Florida (estimated total
$113,500)
Radio
$3,400 in Florida
Newspaper
$24,383 in Florida. Note: Jackson bought
an 8-page insert in papers in Tallahassee,
Panama City, Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa-St.
Petersburg, Ft. Myers and West Palm Beach.
Creative
Miami, Fla., 3/2, WCKT-TV, commercial:
Inflation: Jackson criticizes the Nixon
Administration policies on inflation.
-16-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
JACKSON con't
B. MEDIA con't
Comment
Jackson had been a heavy media investor in
Florida before most of his competition even
arrived there and has added about $12,000
to his budget in the last two weeks. Narrow-
ing his TV commercials down to two, Jackson
is running one on his public and political cre-
dentials and the other on busing of children
to desegregated schools, which he opposes.
Using a technique no other Democrat has tried,
Jackson has localized television spots featur-
ing Florida Congressmen who support him -
Charles E. Bennett for the Jacksonville area
and Robert L.F. Sikes in western Florida.
Jackson volunteers in Washington have started
a direct mail effort which has deluged Florida
with 250,000 letters.
Jackson, it is reported, has spent more money
in Florida than any other candidate (estimates
are between $500,000 and $1,000,000) Some of
that went for polls and the 517 "Scoop" bill-
boards scattered throughout the State.
C. STRATEGY
Wisconsin
Jackson is getting ready for the Wisconsin
primary where he hopes to carry most of the
rural areas and where he is counting on a
large GOP cross-over. vote to help him. In
late February, he made a sweep through Wis-
consin taking with him Wesley Tao, GOP
Chinese-American Northwest director.
Rhode Island
He has prepared a slate for the Rhode Island
primary which includes six State Legislators
and several students.
Tennessee
That State's refusal to move up its primary
date has forced Jackson to cut back on his
efforts there, at least temporarily
he
has closed his Tennessee campaign headquarters
until the end of March.
-17-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
JACKSON con't
C. STRATEGY con't
Florida
The key to Jackson's campaign here is a con-
certed hand-shaking campaign in heavily Jew-
ish areas in Dade County where his pro-Israel
position is widely known and appreciated. To
a large degree he has solved his identity pro-
blems through a combination of television and
radio advertising, billboards and personal ap-
pearances.
Jackson has received the endorsements of nine
daily newspapers in the State, five more than
Sen. Humphrey. He has obtained the backing
of four of Florida's nine Democratic Congress-
men (compared with two for McGovern) and has
the endorsements of three Florida state cabinet
officials (to just one for Humphrey).
D. ANALYSIS
Since the New Hampshire primary, Jackson has become deeply committed
to the idea that he can beat either Muskie or Humphrey for the second
spot in Florida. His intensive campaign in Florida has been costly,
yet he is still not drawing the big crowds. In spite of considerable
advance publicity for his speech at Hialeah, almost no one showed up.
The same was true in Frostproof, where only 150 people came to hear
him, in Fort Meade where he drew 30 people, in Auburndale only 20
came, and in Haines City, only 200, of which 40 were members of the
high school band.
His greatest impact has been in the Miami area where he seems to have
gathered excellent support among the Jewish community for his strongly
pro-Israel stands. He may well have made inroads into Humphrey's
Jewish support and may have overtaken Muskie among Jewish voters.
(Although the Jewish voters make up less than 5% of the 2.1 million
registered Democrats in Florida, they tend to turn out in much higher
proportions on election day than most other groups.)
Although Jackson is one of the few candidates to take specific stands
on the issues, and in spite of a whiz-bang campaign, it does not ap-
pear that he will come out the number two man in Florida - it is more
likely that Jackson will end up in the fifth or sixth spot.
*****
-18-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
McGOVERN
A. ISSUES
Tax Reform
March 9, McGovern told the Florida state
legislature that tax reform should be the
campaign's major issue.
Busing
In an appearance March 9 on the NBC Today
program, McGovern said he would "join with"
Governor Reubin Askew in a bid to defeat
the anti-busing referendum. But, aides in-
dicated that McGovern will probably char-
acterize the anti-busing flap as a "phony
issue" used to divert people's attention
from the real issues (which he considers to
be tax reform, inflation and unemployment,
and the war in Vietnam).
Soviet Jews
On March 1, McGovern called for a sustained
worldwide protest of the Soviet Union's
treatment of Jews who want to emigrate. He
said a continued silence "can only mean in-
difference.'
B. MEDIA
Expenditures (as of 3/10/72)
TV
$13,970 in Florida
Radio
$6,000 in Florida
Newspaper
$1,236 in Florida
Creative
Not available
Comment
In light of his good showing in New Hampshire,
McGovern has stepped up his television budget
in Florida, to approximately $16,000 from
$7,000 and his radio to $12,000, but he early
decided not to attempt a real challenge in the
crowded Florida field. He spent his time and
money on New Hampshire and it showed.
-19-
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MCGOVERN con't
C. STRATEGY
Florida
In an interview on March 9, McGovern indicated
he hoped only to win "a few delegates" from
three or four of Florida's congressional dis-
tricts and was not interested in his standing
in the state-wide popularity contest. Al-
though he has stepped up his media spending
in the State in light of his new Hampshire
showing, he does not appear to be doing much
in Florida.
Midwest
The spending and the organizational effort in
the McGovern campaign has been largely diverted
toward the Senator's base in the Midwest.
Campaign
contributions
McGovern has opened the books on his campaign
contributions, listing 42,472 contributors
for a total of $1,255,910. Supporting his
grass-roòts image, he listed only 86 donors
of $1,000 or more, for a total of $323,811.
Illinois
McCarthy said (March 6) he believes his sup-
porters in the University of Illinois area
will support delegates pledged to McGovern
in the Illinois primary. UPI reporters be-
lieve this confirms stories of an alliance
between McCarthy and McGovern forces in an
attempt to stop Muskie in Illinois.
California
"Californians for Liberal Representation,"
with a membership of 10,000, endorsed McGovern
this week.
Rhode Island
On Feb. 27, McGovern won the support of 13
of 22 uncommitted delegates at Rhode Island's
New Democratic Coalition convention. This
brings to six the number of such endorsements
for McGovern.
Competitive Analysis
Report # 2 con't
Section III con't
MCGOVERN con' t
D. ANALYSIS
McGovern's strong showing in New Hampshire undoubtedly has placed
him among the top contenders for the Democratic nomination. His
campaign organization in New Hampshire demonstrated an almost text-
book-like formula for running a Presidential primary campaign. Its
ability to gather strong grass-roots support, coupled with McGovern's
ability to appeal to the blue-collar workers in America, may make him
Muskie's most dangerous competition. McGovern is a straight-talker,
he does not often straddle the fence and that factor has to be ap-
pealing to that sector of voters who are not easily swayed by rhe-
toric, good looks, or an elegant) style. McGovern should appeal to
those who have the ability to see through the sleek facade of a
candidate such as Lindsay, or the demagoguery of a Wallace.
McGovern has spent little time, money or effort on the Florida pri-
mary and, no doubt, this will show in the results on the 14. Chances
are that he will grab the fourth or fifth spot there but go on to
stronger showings in the Midwest.
*****
-21-
Competitive Analysis
Report #2
Section III
EDWARD KENNEDY
Analysis
Kennedy has been projected back into the scene, if. indeed he
ever left it, as a result of the New Hampshire primary. Demo-
cratic professionals think those results may indicate that no
one will be able to assemble a first-ballot majority at the July
convention. If that should happen, there probably would be a
strong and concerted effort to draft Kennedy for the nomination.
No groundswell of support for Kennedy's hearings on amnesty
appears to have risen. In fact, much of the evidence given
at the hearings has presented serious argument against this
proposition.
Kennedy's dreary carping on the situation in Northern Ireland
continues and has resulted in a motion being introduced by
several members of the British Parliament proposing "a British
investigation of race relations in Massachusetts. (AP, Feb. 28, 1972)
Kennedy, although originally voting in favor of sending the
nomination of acting Attorney General Kleindienst to the Senate
floor, is now attacking Mr. Kleindienst over the ITT situation.
Kennedy recently said he was "in sympathy with the decision" of
the California State Supreme Court to outlaw the death penalty
in that state.
*****
-22-
Competitive Analysis
Report #2
Section III
ASHBROOK
MEDIA
Expenditures
Television
none
Radio
none
Newspaper
none
Creative
not available
Comment
It appears that Ashbrook is counting
on a heavy direct mail effort to bring
his voice to the people in Florida, for
that is precisely where he is spending
his campaign funds.
He attended the national crime forum
dinner sponsored by the Greater Miami
Crime commission (3/8) and was scheduled
to appear on a radio talk show after
the crime forum.
*****
-23-
RADIO TV REPORTS, INC.
41 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017, 697-5100
FOR
THE NOVEMBER GROUP
PROGRAM COMMERCIAL
STATION WEAT-TV
DATE
MARCH 3, 1972
7:28 PM
CITY
WEST PALM BEACH
WALLACE
GEORGE WALLACE: You want to talk about law and order
crime has decreased. Crime hasn't decreased when 127 policemen
were killed in this country last year as the result of a conspiracy
to assassinate police officers in this country, and I tell you,
as the President of the United States, I would stand 100 percent
behind every policeman and law enforcement official
(ROARS AND SCREAMS OF CROWD)
MAN: Send your contribution to Wallace, Box 1972, Montgomery.
ANGELES
WASHINGTON, D.C.
NEW ENGLAND
.
CHICAGO
RADIO TV REPORTS. INC.
41 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017, 697-5100
FOR
THE NOVEMBER GROUP
PROGRAM COMMERCIAL
STATION WCKT-TV
DATE
MARCH 2, 1972
CITY
MIAMI, FLORIDA
JACKSON COMMERCIAL
MAN: Senator Henry M. Jackson talks to the people of Florida.
HENRY JACKSON: Though inflation is the number-one problem,
the administration sat on their hands for over two and a half
years and did nothing about it. Then they put on a freeze and
they didn't know what they'd frozen. The working people know
that just an increase doesn't solve any problems, if everything
else is going on up. We have to stabilize it. It's like a
cat chasing his tail, going round and round and round.
(APPLAUSE)
MAN: The preceding announcement paid for by Floridians
for Jackson, Democrat.
OFFICES IN: NEW YORK
DETROIT
.
LOB ANGELES
WASHINGTON, D.C.
NEW ENGLAND
CHICAGO
RADIO TV REPORTS, INC.
41 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017. 697-5100
FOR
THE NOVEMBER GROUP
PROGRAM COMMERCIAL
STATION WEAT-TV
DATE
MARCH 3, 1972
7:02 PM
CITY
WEST PALM BEACH
MUSKIE
MAN: Ed Muskie talks to Florida housewives about prices.
HOUSEWIFE: We notice the difference. Prices have gone
up definitely.
HOUSEWIFE: Every day you come in the store, you find something
higher. Like we used to pay for the green seven cents. Now
it's ten cents, seventeen cents sometimes.
HOUSEWIFE: I can tell you that I believe they are going
up.
MAN : Let's do something about it. Let's send Ed Muskie
to the White House. Huskie, for the country.
OFFICES IN: NEW YORK DETROIT LOB ANGELES WABHINGTON D. C. NEW ENGLAND CHICAGO
RADIO TV REPORTS, INC.
41 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017, 697-5100
FOR
THE NOVEMBER GROUP
PROGRAM COMMERCIAL
STATION WPLG
DATE
MARCH 3, 1972
7:33 PM
CITY
MIAMI, FLA.
SENATOR MUSKIE
(MUSIC)
SENATOR MUSKIE: What our country needs at this time is
to bring together in one fold the solid majority of Americans
who understand that, notwithstanding their differences, what
they share together is more important, and that if they will
pursue what they share together, their different Interests will
be served as well, and indeed, better, than to divide amongst
themselves.
ANNOUNCER: Muskie, for the country.
OFFICES IN: NEW YORK
DETROIT
LOB ANGELES
WABHINGTON. D. c.
NEW ENGLAND
CHICAGO
NOVEMBER
GROUP
INC.
March 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
PETER H. DAILEY
Attached is the "Competitive Analysis Report", number 3,
covering the period 3/13 - 3/17/72.
cc: Messrs: Dwight Chapin
Harry S. Dent
Leonard Garment
H. R. Haldeman
Clifford A. Miller
Richard Moore
Phil Joanou
Fred LaRue
Jeb S. Magruder
Fred Malek
Robert Marik
William D. Novelli
Bart Porter
Robert Teeter
909 THIRD AVENUE
NEW YORK. N.Y. 10022
(212) 752-3500
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS REPORT #3
Table of Contents
SUMMARY
Section I
NEWS BRIEFS
Section II
POLLS AND SURVEYS
Section III
CANDIDATES
Section IV
Muskie
page 7
Humphrey
page 11
McGovern
page 14
Jackson
page 16
Wallace
page 18
Lindsay
page 21
Ashbrook
page 23
Kennedy
page 24
McCarthy
page 25
ATTACHMENTS
Section V
(i)
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section I.
SUMMARY
MUSKIE
His poor fourth place showing in Florida
and his recent disclosure of his campaign
contributors has left Muskie's campaign in
a critical position, both financially and
politically. He must win, and win big, in
both Illinois and Wisconsin to stay in the
race.
HUMPHREY
Although his number two spot in Florida was
not spectacular, he has proven himself an
energetic campaigner and a viable candidate.
Money should not be a problem now for HHH.
Wisconsin, however, is crucial for him and
he must make a very strong showing there to
stay in the running.
McGOVERN
Certainly not running scared. The Florida
outcome probably didn't affect McGovern's
campaign much one way or the other -- he
never planned to make much of an effort
there. A good showing in Wisconsin is
essential, however, for him at this point.
Wherever he fully utilizes his excellent
campaign organization he will make a good
showing. His supporters will vote for
McCarthy in Illinois to put a dent in
Muskie's vote there.
WALLACE
Becoming more of a threat to the Democratic
Party with each passing day. His near-sweep
of the Florida delegates (75 of 81) makes
him the current leader in the race for
delegates.
JACKSON
Used his head and his money to come up with
a good media blitz in Florida in which he
spoke, as no one else did, directly to the
issues. Still, he is not liable to pose
any real threat to the other contenders.
LINDSAY
Maintaining his "fighter" image, Lindsay.
plans to continue if he can raise the money.
Ashbrook
Posing no real threat to President Nixon,
but has a powerful ally in William Buckley.
Kennedy
Agitating about Ulster, again, and still
claiming to be a non-candidate.
McCarthy
Running strong in Illinois and spending
$200,000 there in a stop-Muskie effort.
-1-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section II
NEWS BRIEFS
Mayor Sam Yorty
Has withdrawn from the Presidential race.
(Wash. Post 3/16)
New Mexico Primary
Seven Democrats and two Republicans are
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
listed on the New Mexico primary ballot:
Wallace, Muskie, McGovern, Humphrey,
Jackson, Lindsay, and Chisholm; Nixon and
McCloskey.
Wisconsin Delegates
Wisconsin will elect 67 delegates to the
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
convention - eleven will go to the state-
wide winner and the rest will be divided
among the victors in the nine Congressional
districts.
Unofricial Florida
Wallace
515,916 votes (42%)
Returns
Humphrey
231,219 votes (18%)
(Wash. Post 3/16)
Jackson
167,667 votes (13%)
Muskie
109,653 votes ( 9%)
Lindsay
81,322 votes ( 7%)
McGovern
74,880 votes ( 6%)
Nixon
357,356 votes (87%)
Ashbrook
35,983 votes ( 9%)
Delegates Won
Wallace
75
to Date
Muskie
22.5'
(Wash. Post 3/16)
McGovern
13.5
Humphrey
6
Lindsay
6
Chisholm
5
Mills
1
Jackson
0
Busing
The National Black Political Convention
(N.Y. Daily News
last week condemned busing to achieve school
3/17)
desegregation as "racist, suicidal methods
(based on) the false notion that black
children are unable to learn unless they are
in the same setting as white children.'
Busing: Florida
With 97% of the precincts in, the tally in
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
Florida on the question of busing was:
-school busing ban: 74% for, 26% against
-equal education:
79% for, 21% against
-school prayer:
79% for, 21% against
-2-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section II, con't
Gov. Rockefeller
The powerful Republican team that helped
for Nixon
Gov. Rockefeller win a record four terms
(N.Y. Daily News
is being put together for President Nixon -
3/16)
and is headed by Rockefeller who has
assigned himself as chairman.
*Times/Yankelovich, Inc.
-If the November election were held now, at
Survey in Florida:
least half of Florida Democrats would vote
Nixon
for Nixon in a two-party race;
(N.Y.T. 3/16)
-If Wallace were to conduct a third-party race
at least in Florida, it would hurt Nixon far
more than any present Democratic candidate;
-Well over half of Florida Democratic voters
were satisfied with Nixon as President; only
a quarter were seriously dissatisfied;
-If Nixon's Democratic opponent next November
is Muskie, Humphrey or Wallace, about half
would vote for Nixon;
-If Wallace were on the ballot, only a hand-
ful of his supporters would defect to Nixon-
BUT if Wallace is not on the ballot, most of
his supporters would vote for Nixon, re-
gardless of who the Democratic candidate is.
*The Times/Yankelovich, Inc. survey in Florida was the first in a
series to be conducted on election day in major primaries and is
designed to assess the reasons for various candidates' performance.
In the results noted above, a cross-section of 392 Democratic voters
was interviewed in 11 counties in Florida.
*****
-3-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section III.
POLLS AND SURVEYS
Harris Poll:
Showed more than 70% of the U.S. people
Nixon's China Policy
favor closer ties with China and the
(Wall St. Journal
Soviet Union. (No polling date given)
3/17)
Gallup Poll:
Showed 98% of the public knew of the trip
Nixon's China Trip
to China - the highest awareness score ever
(Wall St. Journal
recorded by the Gallup Poll; and that 68%
3/17)
believe it will prove worthwhile. (No date)
Harris Poll:
Showed by a margin of 49-33 that Americans
Economy
believe there still is a recession. Con-
(Wall St. Journal
tinuing inflation, because it touches every-
3/17)
one, will be a minus for Nixon.
Nixon's Vietnam
In mid-February, a cross-section of 1, 557
Peace Proposals
households were asked to approve or dis-
(Chicago Tribune
approve Nixon's six-point plan for negotiating
3/16)
an end to the. Vietnam war. (No poll name given)
-To exchange all prisoners of war: 91%
approved, 3% disapproved, 6% not sure.
-To have a cease-fire in all Indochina:
85% approved, 5% disapproved, 10% not sure.
-Hold new South Vietnam elections under
international control: 64% approved, 12%
disapproved, 24% not sure.
-Withdraw all U.S. troops six months after
agreement: 80% approved, 10% disapproved,
10% not sure.
-Have Thieu Government resign a month before
elections: 50% approved, 16% disapproved,
34% not sure.
-Send U.S. economic aid to all Vietnam after
fighting ends: 34% approved, 45% disapproved,
21% not sure.
(Comment: in spite of the good support Nixon
has received on his peace proposals, the war
is not a dead issue among the majority of
Americans. There is still considerable
agitation to settle the war and the U.S.'s
involvement in Vietnam.)
-4-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section III. con't
Times/Yankelovich
As voters emerged from the polls in Florida,
Survey
they were asked to explain their ballots.
(N.Y.T. 3/15-16)
The Muskie supporters were unable to give
interviewers a clear reason for their choice.
Muskie
Five out of six thought the Maine Senator
could beat Nixon, but they did not identify
him with any major issue. They thought he
was "experienced", could win the nomination,
and would unify the country. Of those who
voted for Muskie, about one-third were 60
years or older. Very few young voters
supported him and only about one-third of
his voters agreed strongly with his positions
on issues.
Humphrey
Humphrey's supporters termed him "experienced"
according to interviewers in Florida. One-
third of them said he could best unify the
country and understood the problems of
"common people." Three out of every four
thought he could beat President Nixon and
about one-third picked Muskie as their second
choice after Humphrey. The most important
issue to Humphrey voters was the economy, but
even that was an issue to only one out of
four. Of those who voted for him, one-third
were 60 years or older; almost one-half were
blacks; almost as many women voted for him
as voted for Wallace; and one-third of his
voters were men.
McGovern
Interviewers reported that more than one-half
of the McGovern voters emphasized issues,
above all the Vietnam war, with the economy
a poor second. Two out of every three said
he could beat Nixon. More than three-fourths
of his voters attended college, half of them
were voting for the first time and more than
half agreed with his stand on such issues as
ending the Vietnam war, budget and tax reform,
and changing the priorities of the nation.
Jackson
About half of the Jackson supporters said they
voted for him on the basis of issues, by far
the most important issue to them was the
economy.
-5-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section III. con't
Wallace
Three out of every five Wallace voters
thought he could defeat Nixon, but only one
in ten said they voted for him for this
reason. They considered the busing issue
most important, followed by crime. About
one-third named Jackson as their second
choice. One-half of the Wallace voters
had less than a high school education and
about one-third were high school graduates;
about two-thirds were men; one in five was
60 years or older; well over half of them
shared Wallace's views on busing, taxes and
crime; about one-third were first-time
voters.
*****
-6-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV.
THE CANDIDATES
MUSKIE
A. ISSUES
Business Curbs
Muskie's Illinois headquarters distributed
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
a five-page memorandum detailing his program
of "rigorous" antitrust enforcement. He
proposes to forbid any corporation having
sales in excess of $250 million yearly from
acquiring any other company without first
spinning off assets that are substantially
equivalent in value to those which are being
acquired. He further pledged "open govern-
ment" where corporate mergers were involved
and called for a consumer protection agency
role in antitrust negotiation.
Campaign Con-
On 3/12 Muskie pledged to begin- "within
tributions
ten days" to make a complete disclosure of
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
the estimated $3 million in contributions
to his campaign over the last 16 months.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
Illinois: Muskie advisers have allotted
(Wash. Post
$50,000 for Illinois media.
3/16)
Wisconsin: Muskie probably won't spend
the $163,000 limit in Wisconsin for media.
TV/Radio
Wisconsin: Muskie's media staff are producing
new and tougher radio and TV commercials for
Wisconsin geared to the issues they perceive
to be uppermost in the Wisconsin voters' minds:
unemployment, inflation, Vietnam and govern-
ment spending. Commercials will concentrate
most heavily on the 25 to 30 of Wisconsin's
72 counties that have substantial votes.
Comment
Muskie's moratorium on staff salaries,
effective this week through the April 4
Wisconsin primary, indicates his campaign
is in serious financial trouble - it also
indicates that whatever funds he has will be
spent on as strong a media campaign as possible
both in Illinois and Wisconsin. Advisers are
remapping media commercials in which Muskie
takes strong and definitive stands- so they say
He will probably rely on a heavy personal
appearance program in both the upcoming primary
states as well - especially now with finances
running SO tight. Most of his New Hampshire
commercials were scrapped the last few days of
the Florida primary as being too bland.
-7-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. con't
MUSKIE
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Illinois Campaign
Muskie began his Illinois primary campaign
(Chicago Tribune
on 3/16, where former U.S. Senator Eugene
3/15)
McCarthy is his only Democrat rival on the
ballot. Muskie has said that Illinois is
crucial to his campaign. His Illinois tour
starts in De Kalb at the Northern Illinois
University and ends Monday 3/20 in Madison
and St. Clair counties.
(Chicago Daily
Muskie's campaign manager says they will be
News 3/15)
making an all-out effort in Illinois.
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
Campaigning in De Kalb, Muskie described
President Nixon and George Wallace as allies
of industry - his strategy being to discredit
Wallace's anti-establishment stance by linking
him to the President and big business.
Tougher Muskie
At the urging of his key political and
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
financial advisers, Muskie has consented to
abandon his low-key appeals for brotherhood
and trust in favor of speeches going into
specifics and a stern attack on Wallace.
Adlai Stevenson
Stevenson gently chided his favorite candidate
(Chicago Tribune
for spending too much money and kissing too
3/15)
many babies instead of conducting a calm
debate on the issues as a statesman would.
He said he would be surprised and disappointed
if McCarthy won more than 35% of the Illinois
vote.
Endorsement
The Chicago Building Trades Council, re-
(Chicago Daily
presenting 110,000 members of 18 craft unions,
News 3/15)
endorsed Muskie for the March 21 primary.
Georgia
Muskie supporters attending the Georgia
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
delegate caucuses on March 11, apparently
felt he had won his slate of delegates and
SO they went home. Final results: McGovern-4,
Chisholm-3, uncommitted-1, Muskie-0, Wallace-).
Muskie managed to obtain one alternate delegate
however.
New Jersey
Former Gov. Richard J. Hughes will lead a
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
statewide slate of delegate candidates pledged
to Muskie in the New Jersey June 6 primary.
-8-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
MUSKIE
Tennessee
Muskie supporters here think he should
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
only enter the Tennessee primary if he
comes in second in Florida
(which
he spectacularly failed to do)
Spending Cut-back
Muskie delcared a moritorium on national
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
staffers' salaries until after the April 4
primary in Wisconsin. This marked the
third time in a year that the Muskie
campaign has taken drastic steps to cut
costs. He hopes to save about $75,000 to
$100,000 in salaries and another $150,000
on travel and other expenses over the next
month. The money saved will go into cam-
paign and media costs in Illinois and
Wisconsin.
D. ANALYSIS
Muskie's dismal showing in Florida where he received only 9%
of the votes, coupled with his less than overwhelming victory
in New Hampshire, has certainly dropped him from the front-runner
category. Illinois and Wisconsin are now absolutely crucial for
him. Failure to win in Illinois and Wisconsin might very well
take him out of the Presidential race altogether. If he cannot
recoup his losses, his campaign coffers will most certainly dry
up --- and without funds, he's out of the running. It would
appear too, that his disclosure of campaign contributions has
cost him the covert support of certain Republicans.
He must beat former Senator McCarthy in Illinois by at least 65%
and, while he will surely get the large Polish vote there, the
McGovern forces are allying themselves with McCarthy in a stop-
Muskie movement. While McGovern is not listed on the Presidential
preference ballot, he will be listed as a write-in on the conven-
tion delegate ballot.
Muskie's momentous tactical about-face on disclosure of his cam-
paign contributions is not only a measure of the pressure he was
under from most of the other Democratic candidates, especially
McGovern. It also is a measure of the man. Knowing that disclo-
sure would irrevocably dry up certain financial sources, he never-
theless followed the pack (except for Jackson who is still holding
out). The question is whether he did SO because he believed it
would help get more votes and that the public would react favorably
to the disclosure, or whether he couldn't take the flak. If the
latter was the case, it might strike some that Muskie doesn't
have the courage of his convictions. If he succumbs to pressure
on things of this nature, how will he be able to withstand the
extreme pressure that will be placed on him as President?
-9-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
MUSKIE
Having suffered by appearing to straddle the fence on issues
in both New Hampshire and Florida, Muskie will no doubt take
much stronger and more definitive stands on the issues in both
Illinois and Wisconsin. In fact, he already has begun to do so,
for the New York Times (3/17) reports "it was a more combative
Muskie than voters had seen in New Hampshire or Florida
and
in a style more aggressive, a tone more urgent and words more
pungent than any he had used in the last two years". He asserted
in six Indiana and Illinois cities that he had "plenty of fight
left" for the Illinois primary and the 20 subsequent primaries.
All told, unless he stubs his toe badly or breaks down in tears,
Muskie should win the Illinois primary -- the moot question is
by how wide a margin.
-10-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd
HUMPHREY
A. ISSUES
Vietnam
Humphrey again leap-frogged peace
(S.F. Chronicle
candidate McGovern by saying he would,
3/13)
if elected President, pull all troops
out of Vietnam even before the 90-day
deadline McGovern has proposed.
Business Curbs
In a letter to the Democrat candidates,
(Wash. Post 3/13)
Ralph Nader asked their views on federal
chartering of large corporations as a
means of checking their economic and
political power by, for example, limiting
the scope of their activities, requiring
compliance with anti-pollution laws as a
condition to doing business. Humphrey
said he would "certainly support" such a
proposal provided it would simplify "any
of the substantive problems" of economic
concentration. He generally favors
efforts to compel corporations to abolish
secrecy in such areas as profit and loss,
etc.
Campaign
HHH's Washington office disclosed a list
Contributions
of 121 people who have contributed $1,000
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
or more to his campaign. His disclosure
was a further indication of the growing
force of the campaign financing issue,
spurred initially by McGovern. Of
Humphrey's total contributions to date of
$838,715, $763,741 came from the 121
donors, including 21 who gave $10,000 or
more. He obviously is relying heavily on
wealthy donors as opposed to the "common
people" he's SO fond of referring to as
his major supporters.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
(N.Y.T. 3/14)
TV
He is said to have reserved or bought
only about $65,000 worth of television
time in Florida.
Radio
Total Florida expenditures not available.
Newspaper
Total Florida expenditures not available.
-11-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
HUMPHREY
Creative
Humphrey's Florida celevision commer-
cials presented him as in the "Roosevelt-
Truman-Kennedy" tradition, but never men-
tioned who carried him to the vice-
presidency
L.B.J.
Some of HHH's Florida radio commercials
sounded like echoes of Wallace - in one;
the announcer's voice declared "Humphrey
will stop the flow of your tax dollars to
lazy welfare chiselers. He will put your
tax dollars to work here at home before
giving handouts around the world."
Comment
Humphrey appears to have compensated in
Florida for a relatively low media budget
by appearing on a number of free talk
shows
a gambit he may employ through
out the campaign, given the opportunity.
HHH no doubt will spend heavily in Wis-
consin, a primary he considers crucial
to his candidacy.
By contrast, he spent at least $100,000 on
a computer drive in Florida (N.Y.T. 3/14)
in which a computerized recording of HHH's
voice talked to potential voters by phone.
The message was: "Hello, this is Hubert
Humphrey on a recorded message. I'd like
just a moment of your time to talk about
the Florida Presidential primary. The
stakes are high this election year. The
"general" version of the tape then mention
inflation, unemployment, crime and drug
abuse. The "Jewish" version picks up with
a demand for a "new strategy for peace in
Vietnam and the Middle East", adding
"we must support Israel, providing her
with the arms that she needs - and now.
HHH was the only candidate known to be
using the telephone tapes in Florida.
He also sent out 200,000 computerized and
personalized letters emphasizing that his
first bill in Congress was a Medicare bill
in 1949 for which he fought every year
until it was passed in 1965. Blacks are
reminded in the letter that he "stood up
in 1948 and helped drive the bigots out
of the Democratic party" and that he "led
President John Kennedy's fight for the
civil rights bill and helped pass it after
his death.
-12-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
HUMPHREY
C.
STRATEGY
Wisconsin
HHH was in Wisconsin campaigning by the
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
evening of the 15th. Although he soft-
pedaled remarks about Wallace in Florida,
he said in stumping across Wisconsin for
the past two days that he thought this
state's primary presented an opportunity
"to unite the Democratic Party and to
defeat Wallace". He plans to spend all
or part of 15 days in Wisconsin before
the April 4 voting and intends to swing
into a more informal campaign there than
he ran in Florida.
San Francisco
Humphrey will spend Friday, 3/24, in
(S.F. Chronicle
California addressing a breakfast meeting
3/13)
in Sacramento and then flying to San
Francisco for meetings with labor and
other Democratic leaders before attending
a $500 per couple fund-raising dinner
hosted by. Mayor Joseph Alioto.
Tennessee
Few supporters in Tennessee are urging
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
him into the primary there, but his strong
showing in Florida may generate renewed
support for the May 4th race in Tennessee.
D. ANALYSIS
Humphrey's "win" in Florida hardly makes him the front-runner
at this point, for his 18% showing there is not very impressive
and he hasn't by any means erased widespread doubts that he can
be a winner. He will need to win Wisconsin almost as much as
Muskie. HHH led the field in the 11th Congressional district
in Florida, including parts of Miami and Miami Beach and handily
won the Jewish vote there. Buoyed by the Florida results, he
said that his campaign had demonstrated he had the "knowledge
of the issues" and "the vitality needed for the nomination".
A win in Wisconsin, and by a good enough margin, however, would
probably effectively finish off the lagging Muskie and leave the
field to Humphrey. HHH's broad national recognition, his expe-
rience, his tremendous labor backing, and his phenomenal energy
may very well pull him through the race and make him the man the
liberals will have to buy to stop Wallace at the convention.
Humphrey is the man to watch in Wisconsin.
-13-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd
McGOVERN
A. ISSUES
Business Curbs
In response to Ralph Nader's letter
(Wash. Post 3/16)
requesting McGovern's views on curbing
big business, McGovern said that "the
accumulation of corporate power is among
the most critical issues
"
He
favors federal chartering, saying it
could be important in "enforcing public
interest limitations on corporate acti-
vities". He generally favors efforts to
compel corporations to abolish secrecy
and efforts to break up monopolies in
such industries as auto, aluminum, tire,
steel, soap-detergents, and cereals.
Tax Reform
McGovern's tax reform plan calls for
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
eliminating $28 billion worth of loop-
holes, most of which affect corporations.
Campaigning in Wisconsin, he termed
Wallace's proposal to tax foundations
"a spit in the ocean".
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Total to date not available.
Radio
Total to date not available.
Newspaper
Total to date not available.
Creative
Nothing in yet for Wisconsin.
Comment
McGovern's Florida media campaign was
hardly more than a token effort which
included only a few commercials, but
he showed up frequently on the local
news broadcasts. His emphasis on the
Wisconsin primary indicates a consider-
able media expenditure will be made there.
Like Humphrey, he may take every available
opportunity to appear on local news and
talk shows.
-14-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd
McGOVERN
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Wisconsin
His emphasis here will be on tax reform.
(N.Y. Daily News
He has put together the best organization
3/16)
in the state, building it around the
solid support he has from a strong anti-
Vietnam faction within the state Demo-
cratic party.
San Francisco
McGovern, like Humphrey, will be in San
(S.F. Chronicle
Francisco on March 24 to attend a fund-
3/13)
raising dinner.
Georgia
McGovern won four delegates to Muskie's
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
zero, at the caucuses in Georgia's Fourth
and Fifth Congressional districts (Atlan-
ta and its suburbs)
D.
ANALYSIS
Having done little campaigning in Florida, McGovern is still
relying on his impressive second-place showing in New Hampshire
to keep his campaign rolling. But he, like Humphrey and Muskie,
needs an outright victory to dispel the pervasive notion that
he's too liberal to win. Wisconsin, therefore, is critical to
his candidacy and there, too, he will be running with the same
pack that ran in Florida. McGovern, of all candidates, seems
to have the best-organized campaign structure and when he chooses
to utilize it to its fullest, (as he did in New Hampshire) his
showings will be consistently good. But "showing" isn't going
to be enough to keep him in the race - he must win a major pri-
mary and soon
Since McGovern is not running in the preferential primary in
Illinois (although he is on the delegate ballot), his staffers
will probably vote en masse for McCarthy who is the only candi-
date opposing Muskie in that primary. It is likely that Muskie
will take the primary in Illinois, but the degree to which the
McGovern-McCarthy alliance siphons off Muskie votes will be an
important factor. If they can "lose" by only a small margin,
Muskie's victory will be, as one news magazine labeled it in
New Hampshire, "underwhelming".
-15-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
A. ISSUES
Campaign
Jackson is still resisting opening his
Contributions
campaign contribution books and is
(N.Y.T. 3/16)
criticizing those who have as partici-
pating in "grandstanding".
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Total to date not available, best
estimates are that he spent the $180,000
limit in Florida.
Radio
Not available.
Creative
In the closing days of the Florida cam-
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
paign, Jackson put out his third half-
hour telecast, two more than any competi-
tor. It appeared at least a dozen times
before the March 14th election. In the
new half-hour program, he spoke of his
daughter in an integrated public school
in Washington.
Comment
Jackson's forces have scheduled a heavy
program of radio and TV in Wisconsin
(N.Y.T. 3/16), and will probably use most
of the same material they did in Florida.
Of all the candidates who spent lavishly
for a media campaign in Florida, Jackson
seems to be the only one to realize good
results from the expenditure.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Jewish Vote: Florida
Jackson emphasized his authorship of a
(Chicago Tribune 3/16)
1970 amendment which gave Israel $500
million in military credits, and his
sponsorship of a bill to provide $250
million for Israel to help settle Jewish
refugees from Russia.
Wisconsin
Jackson aides predicted spending approxi-
(N.Y.T. . 3/16)
mately $400,000 in Wisconsin (about the
same as their overall expenditure in
Florida). Plans are to use the same theme
including Jackson's stand against the
busing of school children, and to continue
to stake out the Democratic "centrist"
position.
-16-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
Tennessee
Jackson earlier had closed his campaign
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
office here and did not plan to re-open
it unless he made a strong showing in
Florida. (Looks now as though he'll try
to revive Tennessee in light of his
unexpected third place showing in Florida.
On Wallace's Win
Jackson viewed Wallace's win as a "rather
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
disturbing victory", but didn't believe
the country had moved to the right. He
said, "the great center of the Democratic
Party is angry that the politicians won't
face up to the issues - law and order and
justice, busing, the security of this
country". (Note: Wallace and Jackson
together polled almost 60% of the total
vote in Florida, an index of the conserva-
tive tide that was running there.)
D. ANSLYSIS
Jackson's showing in Florida keeps him in the running, but
that's about all. With just 13% of the vote there, he hardly
established that his long-shot candidacy has any chance. He
will, nevertheless, continue to campaign vigorously in several
upcoming primaries and may be important if only as an index to
how people are voting. His chances for the Democratic nomina-
tion, even assuming he made strong showings in several primaries,
remain almost nil. His third place "win" in Florida may have been
a combination of several things, not least among them a strong and
expensive media blitz and his definitive stands on the issues.
-17-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
A. ISSUES
Campaign Funds
Will disclose information on campaign
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
financing for this year "as soon as
possible". (Note: Florida law requires
that a complete listing of money raised
and spent in the state be filed within
45 days after an election.)
Busing
No change.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Total to date not available, but he
cut back in Florida, probably spending
only about $65,000 there.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Wallace's television broadcasts in Florida
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
made no attempt to edit his exaggerations
but presented him almost exactly as he
appears on the stump.
Comment
With Wallace running the high favorite
in Florida, his use of media was moderate
his forte there being the rallies where
he could stir up emotions and enthusiasm.
He probably will have to invest in media
coverage rather heavily in Wisconsin
where his rally 'round the flag, boys,
approach is not likely to generate much
interest.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Remaining a Democrat
On the ABC "Issues and Answers" program
(N.Y.T. 3/14)
(3/12), Wallace said he planned to go to
the Democratic convention as a full-
fledged Democrat. He does not plan to
bolt the party and run as a third-party
candidate unless he is treated rudely or
cavalierly at the convention.
10
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
Wisconsin
So far there has been no evidence of a
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
well-organized effort developing for
Wallace in Wisconsin, and he does not
plan to arrive in the state until March
23 to begin campaigning.
Ohio/California
Wallace has said he may campaign in as
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
many as ten more Democratic primaries,
probably including California and Ohio.
Michigan
Michigan may provide fertile ground for
(N.Y. Daily News
Wallace with its recent busing troubles
3/16)
in Pontiac. Wallace drew nearly 332,000
votes in the general election in Michigan
in 1968. This was far below the 1.5
million Humphrey drew and the 1.3 million
Nixon received, but enough for a worri-
some primary election base.
Texas
In an Orlando news conference earlier
(N.Y.T. 3/16)
this week, Wallace said he would begin
work in Texas on Saturday before going
on to Wisconsin.
Issues
Wallace said he is primed to continue
(Chicago Sun Times
talking about the same issues - tax re-
3/15)
form, foreign aid "giveaways", big
business spending and, naturally, busing.
Georgia
Wallace did not win a single delegate
(Wash. Post 3/15)
in the Georgia caucuses. (See analysis)
Tennessee
Wallace has requested that his name be
(N.Y.T. 3/15)
placed on the ballot here. He carried
47 of the state's 95 counties in 1968
and ran only 48,000 votes behind Nixon.
D.
ANALYSIS
Wallace's win in Florida was to be expected -- the margin by
which he won (284,697 votes, or 24% more than Humphrey, the
number two winner) surprised even him. His Florida campaign
consistently outdrew those of the other candidates - and its
thrust centered around the rally. Those who attended his
rallies could best be described as white, blue-collar families
who showed little hesitation about expressing their anger
toward the "bureaucrats, hypocrites and uninterested politi-
cians" whom Wallace castigated in his speeches. The big
-19-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
question is whether Wallace's victory was representative of a
national movement, or whether it was a regional racist win based
largely on his strong stand against school busing. The answer
to that question will probably come out of the Wisconsin primary
where Wallace is running against all of the same contenders and
where his basic stands on busing and bureaucracy run a bit counter
to the traditionally progressive nature of the state.
He currently leads the field in pledged delegates and even if
he doesn't win in Wisconsin, which is likely unless the liberal
vote splits widely among the other candidates, he may still pick
up additional delegates in the district-by-district balloting.
Interestingly enough, Wallace did not win any delegates at the
Georgia caucuses this year and that setback may have more meaning
for his political future than the Florida razzle dazzle. Wallace's
running battle with Georgia's able and moderate governor, Jimmy
Carter, coupled with the historic Voting Rights Act (which led to
black Georgians joining eagerly in the struggle for delegate places
at the convention) may have proven a lethal combination for the
Alabama governor. Wallace carried Georgia in 1968 by a huge
majority and he no doubt thought he would breeze by again this
year. Additionally, the pollers have been finding for months
that the leftwing Democrats could no longer rely on Wallace to
take the Deep South away from President Nixon
and what just
happened there with the delegates confirms the pollers. According
to Joseph Alsop (Washington Post 3/15) "The Georgia sign suggests
that Nixon rather than Wallace ought to carry the Deep South states
next November. "
However, the more delegates Wallace is able to gather in the pri-
maries, the larger his liability to the Democratic party becomes
at convention time. In spite of his statement that he does not
intend to bolt the party, his "caveat emptor" phrase, "unless
they treat me in à rude or cavalier manner", spells sure trouble --
for unquestionably, the party will do just that come July.
-20-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
LINDSAY
A. ISSUES
Campaign
Lindsay has released a list of his
Contributions
campaign contributions and contributors.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV/Radio
Lindsay spent an estimated $180,000 on
(N.Y. Post 3/15)
radio and television in Florida, or more
than $6 for each of his 81,075 votes.
Lindsay is already buying radio and
television time in Wisconsin (November
Group media, staff, no details available
as of this writing).
Creative
Lindsay's Florida television effort
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
relied heavily on personalities. In his
key commercial Lindsay said, "If there's
one thing I've learned running the second
biggest government in America, it's how
to fight and what to fight for. And if
you give me a chance I think I can defeat
Richard Nixon. " Carroll O'Connor ("All
in the Family") urged Floridians in one
commercial to "vote your hopes, not your
fears
"
And Mayor Charles Evers
of Fayette, Mississippi, added in his
commercial, "John Lindsay has proven
over the years he's for all the people,
the blacks, the whites, the Puerto Ricans
and all of those who need to be cared
for. IF
Comment
In spite of a lavish and expensive media
campaign, Lindsay's television image did
not seem to impress many Florida voters.
Money problems may force him to cut back
media investment in Wisconsin.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Debate with McGovern
Lindsay and McGovern were the only two
(N.Y.T. 3/13)
candidates to show up for a special panel
television debate March 12 in Miami. The
two agreed on just about everything but
got into a dispute over McGovern's Senate
vote for a compromise bill allowing
Federal funds to be used to bus children
to desegregate schools only when re-
quested by local authorities.
-21-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
LINDSAY
Massachusetts
Three top aides in Lindsay's Massachusetts
(N.Y.T. 3/17)
primary campaign organization have quit
because of disagreements over strategy
with his New York staff.
Entering other
Lindsay vowed after the Florida primary
Primaries
to continue his bid for the White House
(N.Y. Post 3/15)
through the Wisconsin, Massachusetts and
California primaries -- just as soon as
he raises enough money to cover a big
deficit incurred in Florida. On the
record, he spent $300,000 in Florida, but
estimates go as high as $500,000.
Wisconsin
Lindsay is confident that he can raise
(N.Y. News 3/16)
enough money to spend about $300,000 in
the Wisconsin primary. He goes to Wis-
consin on 3/19 for a day and plans to
return there for five final days of
intensive campaigning leading up to the
April 4 primary.
D. ANALYSIS
Lindsay did manage to edge out McGovern by 1% of the vote in
Florida -- a feat he had said he must do in order to stay in
the running. A 1% lead over McGovern doesn't make Lindsay much
of a contender, though, especially in light of Lindsay's heavy
media expenditures versus McGovern's modest $65,000. Lindsay
aides are hoping that Wisconsin, which allows its voters to cross
party lines in the primaries, will give Lindsay a good percentage
of its traditional progressive Republican votes. He will have to
be very careful how he goes about wooing any Republican votes,
however. Perhaps the most significant factor affecting Lindsay's
political future is his inability to successfully bring the Jewish
vote into his fold. One of his aides talking about the clobbering
Lindsay took in Jewish areas in Florida said, "There has to be a
rapprochement with the Jews or we've had it." One might go even
further and say that there has to be a "rapprochement" with a lot
of other people, too, or Lindsay's had it.
-22-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
ASHBROOK
Comment
Ashbrook spent only about $8,000 in Florida, primarily for
a small mailing and about 14 days of personal campaigning
there (N.Y.T. 3/16). His 35,983 votes (9%) certainly does
not make him a real threat to President Nixon's re-election.
However, columnist William Buckley continues to support and
use the Ashbrook candidacy as a vehicle for prodding the
President into a more conservative position. To many ultra-
conservative Republicans, Ashbrook may represent a national
and worrisome means of conveying their disapproval of Presi-
dent Nixon's policies on the war, inflation, unemployment,
welfare, busing and other major issues. At present, all
signs indicate Ashbrook will continue to oppose Nixon through
several more primaries.
-23-
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
EDWARD KENNEDY
Comment
Kennedy, as late as 3/15, was still declaring his non-candidacy,
saying his position is "unchanged" on the matter (Washington Post
3/16). Senator Ernest F. Hollings (D-S.C.), who is both uncommitted
and personally friendly to Kennedy, said there is no sign that
Kennedy has changed his mind about running this year, but added:
"Shoot, if this keeps up, there is no way he can avoid it." Kennedy
has formally ruled himself out of the running for the May 16 Michi-
gan primary.
Kennedy again prodded Nixon on the Ulster situation by urging Nixon
to make a formal U.S. appeal to Great Britain for an "initiative
that can produce a full and fair and early settlement" of the crisis
in Northern Ireland. (N.Y. Post 3/15)
Competitive Analysis
Report #3
Section IV. cont'd.
EUGENE McCARTHY
Comment
McCarthy reportedly (Washington Post 3/16) is spending more
than $200,000 for a statewide media blitz in Illinois where
he is running against only one opponent: Muskie. McCarthy's
1972 campaign message is that charismatic political leaders
are a distraction. The real instrument of self-government,
he says, is the collective judgment of competing political
parties. He wants a 90% cut in space spending; a cutback in
highway spending and a leash on the auto industry; new federal
wage-and-hour legislation to require companies to absorb the
unemployed with a shorter work day or work year. He thinks
the U.S. has an ironclad duty to preserve Israel and wants no
big cutback in U.S. forces stationed in Europe (this latter
point is a strong difference between *McCarthy and McGovern,
the man McCarthy most supports).
It is not likely that McCarthy will carry Illinois, even
with McGovern's supporters voting for him.
RADIO TV REPORTS. INC.
41 EAST 42ND STREET. NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017. 697-5100
FOR
THE NOVEMBER GROUP
PROGRAM COMMERCIAL
STATION WJKS-TV
DATE
MARCH 11, 1972
CITY
JACKSONVILLE, FLA.
WALLACE FOR PRESIDENT
GEORGE WALLACE: Do you know how much this country has
given away in foreign aid since the year 1956? Two hundred
and. twelve billion dollars. No wonder our taxes are so high.
No wonder we owe so much, No wonder we do not have money to
help our elderly under Social Security or solve the pollution
problems facing us. Or put more money into the national defense.
We've wasted our money in foreign giveaways. A vote for George
Wallace is a vote against the continuation of this extravagance
of giving money to countries, especially those who have fought
us in Vietnam and that aided the enemies of this country and
voted against us in the United Nations. I am for stopping this
foreign aid giveaway. Your dollars help elect Governor Wallace.
Send your contributions to The Wallace Campaign, Box 1972,
Montgomery, Alabama.
Paid political announcement by Florida Citizens for Wallace.
OFFICES IN: NEW YORK
DETROIT
LOB ANGELES
WAGHINGTON. D. C.
NEW ENGLAND
CHICAGO
Mr. H. R. Haldeman
NOVEMBER
GROUP
INC.
March 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
PETER H. DAILEY
Attached is the "Competitive Analysis Report", number
4, covering the period 3/18/72 - 3/24/72.
909 THIRD AVENUE
NEW YORK. N.Y. 10022
(212) 752-3500
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - REPORT #4
Table of Contents
SUMMARY
Section I
NEWS BRIEFS
Section II
Primary States Voting Patterns
page
5
POLLS and SURVEYS
Section III
CANDIDATES
Section IV
Muskie
page
10
Humphrey
page
14
Wallace
page
16
McGovern
page
19
Lindsay
page
23
Jackson
page
26
McCarthy
page
28
Kennedy
page
30
ATTACHMENTS
Section V
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section I.
SUMMARY
MUSKIE
Biggest change in strategy is his attempt to
link Wallace and Nixon on issues such as busing
and agriculture. Attempting in Illinois and
Wisconsin to separate Wallace from his sup-
porters, but going about it in a clumsy
fashion which may antagonize more than it gains
HUMPHREY
His about-face response to President Nixon's
busing statement was the most interesting thing
HHH has done in some time.
WALLACE
Not hitting the busing issue as hard in Wis-
consin, but still storming the state in the
ever-present rally and emphasizing tax reform.
McGOVERN
Like SO many others, McGovern is attempting to
WOO Wallace votes by delicately calling the
Governor an "extremist" yet speaking sympatheti
cally of those who voted for Wallace in Florida
and assuring Wallaceites in Wisconsin that he
agrees with their general discontent on the
way things are being run in this country.
LINDSAY
Trying to raise enough money to run another
media campaign in Wisconsin, but not succeeding
Talking primarily to the blue-collar workers
and spending nights in their homes.
JACKSON
Thinks the President didn't go far enough in
his busing statement and is still emphasizing
the need for a Constitutional Amendment on
busing.
McCARTHY
Aspiring to the nomination in July, or failing
that, to heading a third-party revolt.
Kennedy
Joining the pack to denounce Nixon's busing
statement (which was only to be expected) and
sponsoring a tax reform bill soon to be intro-
duced in the Senate.
-1-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section II.
NEW ITEMS
Illinois Primary
Presidential preference contest:
(Chicago Daily News 3/22)
Muskie
731,884 votes (63%)
McCarthy
425,582 votes (37%)
Delegates won:
Muskie
59
McGovern
14
Delegates Won to Date
Muskie
82.5
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
Wallace
75
McGovern
28.5
Lindsay
7
Humphrey
6
Chisholm
6
Mills
1
Jackson
0
uncommitted 118
The listing above covers all of the dele-
gates from Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire
and most of those from Georgia and Illinois
which will choose additional delegates late.
Two rival slates have been chosen in Missi-
ssipi and that state is omitted. The total
needed to win the nomination is 1,509.
Upcoming Primaries
(Chicago Tribune 3/10)
Wisconsin
Presidential preference primary. Total of
April 4
67 delegates, with 56 to be elected from
the state's nine Congressional districts
and 11 at-large delegates going to the win-
ner. The at-large delegates will be commit
ted to the winner of the primary on the
first convention ballot only.
Indiana
Presidential preference by district primary
May 2
Under Indiana's new election rules, 57 of
the state's 76 delegates will be bound for
one ballot at the convention to the winner
in their Congressional district. The 19
at-large delegates will be bound on the
first ballot to the statewide primary win-
ner. Wallace, Humphrey and Muskie are on
the primary ballot. Nixon and Ashbrook are
listed on the Republican side.
-2-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section II., cont'd.
Michigan Primary
Wallace, Muskie, Humphrey, McGovern, Jack-
(Wash. Post 3/23)
son, Hartke and Chisholm are listed on the
primary ballot. Lindsay, Kennedy and Mills
requested not to be placed on the ballot.
President Nixon will run here unopposed.
Michigan has 132 Democratic delegates and
busing is a "red-hot emotional issue".
Youth Vote
In the New Hampshire and Florida primaries,
((N.Y.T. 3/20)
young people tended to vote for candidates
who were more liberal those those the elec-
torate as a whole tended to support; but
the young did not vote differently enough,
or often enough, to have a dramatic effect
on the results. The most liberal segment
of the youth vote is clearly the 25% in
college.
(Note: Wisconsin has 250,000 newly enfran-
chised voters this year, and most of the
Wisconsin elections in recent years have
been decided by less than that margin.)
Mayor Daley
Illinois reform Democrats plan to challenge
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
all uncommitted delegates to the convention
who were elected on March 21, and possibly
some committed delegates as well. The
challenge could result in expulsion from the
convention of the uncommitted delegates,
most of whom are loyal to Mayor Daley
(Chicago). The uncommitted group would the
be replaced by delegate candidates who were
defeated in the primary voting. The uncom-
mitted delegates might also be vulnerable
because the slates contain few women and
almost no young people, a violation of the
reform rules. An all-male slate committed
to Muskie will be challenged on similar
grounds by McGovern supporters.
Democratic Convention
Reconciled to the fact that the party's
(Chicago Tribune 3/21)
nominating convention is going to be a free
swinging battle, party chief Larry O'Brien
has sent the following message out to all
of the major combattants:
- on Credentials fights - this year's new
reform rules are to be followed religiously
regardless of whom it helps or hurts (even,
O'Brien insists, if it turns out to benefit
Wallace).
-3-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section II., cont'd.
- on Platform - this year's compaign docu-
ment will reflect the "traditional Democra-
tic Party" values; meaning that the party
will not trim its sails on its commitment
to civil rights and integration despite the
groundswell of public sentiment against
court-ordered school busing.
Campaign Spending
A new ruling now requires that candidates'
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
spending for radio, television, newspaper
or billboard advertising before April 7 be
reported as post-April 7 expenditures if
the services purchased are used after that
date. The new ruling does not cover a larg
area of other major expenditures, however,
including contracts signed before April 7
for direct mail services or advance dis-
bursements for local headquarters or organ-
izing groups.
-4-
PRIMARY STATES VOTING PATTERNS
STATE
1960
1964
1968
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Kennedy
478
Johnson
64%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
53%
Goldwater
36%
Nixon
52%
Wallace
4%
FLORIDA
Kennedy
49%
Johnson
51%
Humphrey
31%
Nixon
51%
Goldwater
49%
Nixon
41%
Wallace
29%
ILLINOIS
Kennedy
50%
Johnson
60%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
50%
Goldwater
40%
Nixon
47%
Wallace
9%
WISCONSIN
Kennedy
48%
Johnson
62%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
52%
Goldwater
38%
Nixon
48%
Wallace
8%
RHODE ISLAND
Kennedy
64%
Johnson
81%
Humphrey
64%
Nixon
36%
Goldwater
19%
Nixon
32%
Wallace
4%
MASSACHUSETTS
Kennedy
60%
Johnson
76%
Humphrey
63%
Nixon
40%
Goldwater
24%
Nixon
33%
Wallace
4%
PENNSYLVANIA
Kennedy
51%
Johnson
65%
Humphrey
48%
Nixon
49%
Goldwater
35%
Nixon
44%
Wallace
8%
INDIANA
Kennedy
45%
Johnson
56%
Humphrey
39%
Nixon
55%
Goldwater
44%
Nixon
50%
Wallace
12%
-5-
continued
Primary States Voting Patterns
STATE
1960
1964
1968
ALABAMA
Kennedy
57%
Johnson
*
Humphrey
15%
Nixon
43%
Goldwater
70%
Nixon
15%
Wallace
70%
OHIO
Kennedy
47%
Johnson
63%
Humphrey
43%
Nixon
53%
Goldwater
37%
Nixon
45%
Wallace
12%
TENNESSEE
Kennedy
46%
Johnson
55%
Humphrey
28%
Nixon
53%
Goldwater
45%
Nixon
38%
Wallace
34%
NORTH CAROLINA
Kennedy
52%
Johnson
56%
Humphrey
29%
Nixon
48%
Goldwater
44%
Nixon
40%
Wallace
31%
NEBRASKA
Kennedy
38%
Johnson
53%
Humphrey
32%
Nixon
62%
Goldwater
47%
Nixon
60%
Wallace
8%
WEST VIRGINIA
Kennedy
53%
Nixon
47%
Johnson
68%
Humphrey
50%
Goldwater
32%
Nixon
41%
Wallace
10%
MARYLAND
Kennedy
54%
Johnson
66%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
46%
Goldwater
34%
Nixon
42%
Wallace
14%
*210,733 votes were cast for Democratci electors not pledged to Johnson.
-6-
Primary States Voting Patterns
STATE
1960
1964
1968
OREGON
Kennedy
47%
Johnson
64%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
53%
Goldwater
36%
Nixon
50%
Wallace
6%
CALIFORNIA
Kennedy
50%
Johnson
59%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
50%
Goldwater
41%
Nixon
48%
Wallace
7%
NEW JERSEY
Kennedy
50%
Johnson
66%
Humphrey
44%
Nixon
50%
Goldwater
34%
Nixon
46%
Wallace
9%
NEW MEXICO
Kennedy
50%
Johnson
59%
Humphrey
40%
Nixon
50%
Goldwater
41%
Nixon
52%
Wallace
8%
SOUTH DAKOTA
Kennedy
42%
Johnson
56%
Humphrey
42%
Nixon
58%
Goldwater
44%
Nixon
53%
Wallace
5%
NEW YORK
Kennedy
53%
Johnson
69%
Humphrey
58%
Nixon
47%
Goldwater
31%
Nixon
40%
Wallace
3%
ARKANSAS
Kennedy
54%
Johnson
56%
Humphrey
30%
Nixon
46%
Goldwater
44%
Nixon
31%
Wallace
39%
Source: The Almanac of American Politics, by Michael Barone, Grant Ujifusa, and Douglas Matthews,
Gambit, 1972.
-7-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section III.
POLLS and SURVEYS
Gallup Poll
Taken March 3-5, covering 612 Democrats,
(N.Y.T. 3/19)
the poll results were:
(without Wallace)
Humphrey
35%
Muskie
28%
Lindsay
8%
McGovern
7%
McCarthy
6%
Jackson
5%
(with "allace)
Humphrey
31%
Muskie
23%
Wallace
15%
Lindsay
7%
McGovern
6%
McCarthy
6%
Jackson
5%
The poll excluded Edward Kennedy because
George Gallup said his organization has
decided Kennedy is not a candidate. In
previous surveys, Kennedy had been included
and in February, polled 24%. The March
figures without Kennedy indicate that Hum-
phrey was a major beneficiary of the former
Kennedy support. This poll gave HHH a net
gain of 10 points compared to a poll in
February.
Harris Survey: Wallace
Survey taken of a cross section of 1,602
(Chicago Tribune 3/20)
households between 2/27 and 3/6. Results
indicated that 83% of the public respects
Wallace for having the "courage to say what
he really thinks", but 57% also consider
him "an extremist"; and by 48% to 34%,
Americans believe Wallace is a "racist,
stirring up trouble". Some of the wide
differences which exist between voters in
the South and those in the rest of the
country are:
- by 53% to 24% people in the South agree
that Wallace is "right to want to leave
race relations to the states". The rest
of the country disagrees with that state-
ment by 47% to 32%.
- by 44% to 31% Southerners think Wallace
"would keep law and order the way it should
be kept." The rest of the country disagre
by 54% to 27%.
-8-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section III. cont'd.
- by 49% to 30% Southerners deny that
Wallace is a "racist stirring up trouble".
The rest of the country views him as a
racist by. 53% to 29%.
These results show rather dramatically how
differently Wallace is perceived inside and
outside the South. (Comment: without
exception, Wallace received fewer favorable
votes on every question asked in the 1972
poll than he did in the 1968 poll.)
Public Broadcasting
Conducted March 13-17, in Wisconsin for the
Service Poll
Public Broadcasting Service by Joe B. Wil-
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
liams (an Elmwood, Nebraska public opinion
researcher), the poll sampled the opinion
of 495 Wisconsin voters. Results:
Humphrey
18%
McGovern
16%
Muskie
13%
Jackson
12%
Wallace
8%
Lindsay
2%
McCarthy
1%
Chisholm
1%
undecided
29%
About half of those polled were questioned
before the Florida primary and half after-
wards. Among those questioned before the
Florida primary, 12% favored Humphrey; after
ward, his support grew to 23%. Wallace got
5% in the pre-Florida poll and 10% after-
wards. Muskie got 12% before and 13% after
McGovern got 17% before and 14% after.
Jackson got 17% before and 9% after.
-9-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV.
THE CANDIDATES
MUSKIE
A. ISSUES
Busing
Responding to President Nixon's statement
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
on busing, Muskie contended that the prob-
lem is, rather, to bring quality education
within the reach of every child. Busing is
one tool to achieve desegregation and has
value "if used with common sense
." but
the basic challenge is more adequate fundin
of schools and integration of jobs and
housing.
Farms
Called on the Federal Trade Commission to
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
conduct an "immediate, large-scale" investi-
gation into the takeover of farms by large,
non-farm corporations. Says there should
be an "absolute limit" of $15,000 on deduc-
tible farm losses for Federal tax purposes.
Further, that "gentlemen farmers" had taken
up agriculture as a tax shelter, thus
threatening the livelihood of small family
farmers. (Quote from the Times: "It was
the second day in succession that Mr.
Muskie sought to adopt the issues, if not
the positions, of Governor George C.
Wallace
")
ITT
Campaigning in Illinois, Muskie called on
(Wash. Post 3/17)
all White House aides involved in the ITT
merger decision to waive executive privileg
and testify in the Senate Judiciary Commit-
tee investigation.
Wallace
Muskie has been lambasting Wallace as an
(N.Y.T. 3/19 and
apostle of privilege, saying: "I hate what
Chicago Sun-Times 3/17)
George Wallace stands for
"
Muskie
also said of Wallace, "This preacher of
prejudice is nothing but a pretender to.
populism " and that Wallace doesn't
stand for the workers or farmers but for
the special privilege groups he has served
since holding office.
Anti-ballistic Missile
Muskie chided Humphrey and Jackson for
and Space Shuttle
their favoring the anti-ballistic missile
(N.Y.T. 3/22)
and the space shuttle, saying that he
(Muskie) opposed both of these programs in
the name of the taxpayer's pocketbook.
-10-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV, cont'd.
MUSKIE
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 3/5/72, station
WITI-TV.
Vague commercial on unemployed and infla-
tion. (Commercial attached)
Comment
According to figures reported by Muskie's
Illinois campaign manager, he spent $260,00
in Illinois (N.Y.T. 3/22). Muskie, him-
self, in reviewing the Florida results,
indicated that his problems there were com-
pounded by vague and "subliminal" televisio
commercials and by a failure to use radio
spots effectively. (N.Y.T. 3/19)
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Michigan Backing
Leonard Woodcock and Douglas A. Fraser,
(Wash. Post 3/23)
president and vice president, of the United
Auto Workers in Michigan (a union that is
acknowledged to be the most important singl
force in the state's Democratic politics)
are backing Muskie.
Illinois Endorsement
The Chicago Tribune endorsed Muskie on
(Chicago Tribune 3/19)
3/19.
To Skip Primaries
Muskie will skip the Maryland, North Caro-
(Wash. Post 3/21)
lina, Tennessee and possibly Nebraska pri-
maries, concentrating instead on Michigan
and other states having large delegate
offerings.
Note: Muskie has vowed to "go all the way"
to the convention regardless of the outcome
of the primary elections in which he is
entered.
The "New" Muskie
Muskie said the Florida results had con-
(N.Y.T. 3/19)
vinced him of the need to "present our-
selves more clearly, more toughly, more
crisply" on the issues. His plans call fo:
selecting three or four issues and stating
his position on them "clearly and repetiti-
vely". Indeed, at a rally on 3/16 the
Times reported that the "new" Muskie spoke
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
MUSKIE
"in a louder voice, looked intense and
angry and his pedagogical style was gone".
However, the Senator's new aggressiveness
did not last long for by the time he
reached Northern Illinois University late
that same night, "he was back to a low-key
presentation, giving rambling, avuncular
answers to questions.
Strategy Change
On 3/17, Muskie's strategy began to con-
(Chicago Sun-Times
centrate on "identifying the principal tar-
3/18)
get as the Wallace-Nixon challenge to the
Democratic Party". His speeches continued
thereafter to pound Wallace and Nixon,
while virtually ignoring McGovern and
McCarthy.
D. ANALYSIS
Calling his 63% win in Illinois, "a solid victory in a state that
represents a true cross section of America
", Muskie amassed
about 66% of the vote in the downstate area and about 60% in the
Chicago suburbs. He walked off with 59 committed delegates and
hopes to win the other 87 still tightly held by Mayor Daley. But,
the two flies in that ointment are: a faction in the Democratic
Party which plans to challenge all uncommitted delegates from
Illinois at the convention for non-conformance to the new rules;
and McGovern, who plans to challenge some of Muskie's committed
delegates.
Not once did Muskie adopt a more liberal stance in Illinois on
such issues as amnesty for war deserters, marijuana or abortion.
In fact, one of his staffers was heard to say that it would be
difficult for Muskie to come out hard on these issues, "one word
and there goes our labor support in Wisconsin and other people
we can't afford to lose". (N.Y.T. 3/19)
Muskie's most startling change of pace seemed to be his burning
desire to link Wallace with Nixon (or vice versa). His objective
may be to align the two on such political issues as busing, agri-
culture, big business, etc., SO that Muskie himself might become
more clearly perceived -- the idea being that if one can identify
and isolate the opposition, one's own position, merely by being
opposite, becomes more apparent. Certainly there's little argu-
ment that Muskie's position to date has been less than apparent.
His attacks on Wallace while attempting to usurp Wallace's posi-
tions, furnish a striking parallel to the new thrust of McGovern's
speeches (see McGovern analysis). The parallel, however, ends
there, for McGovern is wending his way through that snake pit with
great finesse while Muskie clomps along calling Wallace a "demagoque"
appealing to the worst instincts of human nature. In fact, Muskie's
outright attacks on Wallace may be a large mistake. Reason: Muskie
probably can't cut too deeply into the liberal votes of McGovern
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
MUSKIE
or Lindsay and must, therefore, go after the Wallace vote.
To insult Wallaceites may, therefore, be to court disaster.
In any case, Muskie's win in Illinois not only keeps him
viable, it keeps him in the front-runner position for dele-
gates. A win in Wisconsin remains crucial, however, not
only because he's running with the entire pack again there,
but also because the liberal vote could split so widely that
Wallace might come out on top. Muskie's greatest foe, aside
from himself, is time. The split in time spent between Illinois
and Wisconsin may mean the difference between winning or losing
there. Best guess is that Muskie will come in third behind
Humphrey and Wallace.
-13-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
HUMPHREY
A. ISSUES
Busing
Initially responding to Nixon's statement
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
on busing, HHH said, "Thank goodness, that
at long last the President has been able to
get his finger up in the air and sense
what's going on and has decided that he
would say amen to some of the things that
some of the rest of us have been trying to
do." Asked if he basically agreed with
Mr. Nixon's position, Humphrey said, "He's
in agreement with me. Let's get the cart
where it belongs.'
N.Y.T. 3/21
In a dramatic reversal of his original
response on busing, HHH is now saying that,
"Nixon's plan is insufficient in the amount
of aid needed for our children, deceptive
to the American people, and insensitive to
the laws and the Constitution of this
nation." Further, "When I read the fine
print of (Nixon's) Congressional message,
the newness of the President's initiative
tarnished quickly." Humphrey then empha-
sized the need for more Federal aid to
schools, enforcement of open housing laws,
"special programs" to help minorities,
equal spending on schools, and the redrawin
of local district boundaries.
Labor
Campaigning in Ohio, Humphrey said (speech
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
delivered for a labor dinner) that the Pay
Board's decision to trim the 20.9% wage and
fringe benefits for West Coast longshoremen
was "regrettable" and denounced the economi
control program as "a gigantic sieve throug
which you can drive a Mack truck".
Tax Reform Bill
Humphrey is one of several Democrat spon-
(N.Y.T. 3/22)
sors of a Senate tax reform bill aimed at
raising $16 billion in new revenue in 1973.
HHH said the reform plan "goes directly
after the accelerated-depreciation-range
system, capital gains at death, the oil
depletion allowance, the hobby-farms, the
tax shelters of the estates of million-
aires". (Other sponsors include Ted Kenned
and George McGovern.)
-14-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
HUMPHREY
B. MEDIA
Nothing available.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Ohio
Actively seeking the labor vote in Ohio
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
this week.
Indiana
Entered in the primary here where HHH will
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
face only Wallace and Muskie on May 2.
Wisconsin
Campaigning in Wisconsin as "the one
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
progressive Democrat that can beat Wallace
and then take on Nixon, too."
D. ANALYSIS
Senator Humphrey's not-too-quick pirouette on President Nixon's
busing statement was the most interesting, if not downright
comical, thing he has done of late. HHII's initial response
must have startled a lot of people coming as it did from a man
who, in 1948, led the liberal forces that demanded and won a
strong civil rights plank in the Democratic Platform.
But it should not have been surprising to find him trip-the-
light-fantastic back into his normal groove after reading the
"fine print" in Mr. Nixon's statement and determining that the
President had not, in fact, gone far enough to suit Mr. Humphrey's
more liberal tastes. Maybe this will teach the Minnesota Senator
to look before he leaps, because the next time he might not be
able to wiggle out of a public statement quite so easily.
It's also interesting to note that Humphrey is describing him-
self as a "progressive Democrat" while campaigning in Wisconsin --
the birthplace of American progressivism, whose finest incarna-
tion was Robert LaFollette. While he may tout himself as "liberal"
everywhere else, here he is "progressive". Considering that the
original brand of "progressivism" combined an economic radical-
ism and an isolationist foreign policy, Humphrey ought to do
very well in this state next Tuesday. In fact, best guess is
that he will win the top spot, followed closely by Wallace and
Muskie.
-15-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
WALLACE
A. ISSUES
Tax Reform
Wallace kicked off his Wisconsin campaign
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
by stressing the need for tax reform.
Wallace was among the earliest of the
Democratic Presidential contenders to grab
the tax-reform issue and he often attacks
the tax privileges given to foundations
and the tax-exempt status of church com-
mercial properties.
Busing
No change, but apparently won't make a
major issue of it in Wisconsin where it
isn't a major issue.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Attached is the full text of a 30-minute
televised Wallace broadcast which ran on
March 11, from 7:30 to 8:00 p.m. in
Jacksonville, Florida.
Comment
Wallace's attached speech covers all the
issues in a down-to-earth manner and poses
a few questions which even the most anti-
Wallace voter might ponder. He hits the
issues and hits them hard in this speech
and it might be very persuasive if modi-
fied for the Wisconsin primary.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Texas
Wallace arrived in Austin, Texas (3/17)
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
hoping to capitalize on the fact that the
busing issue will be on the Texas primary
ballots May 8. Further, under the new
Texas state convention rules, delegates
will be selected in precinct conventions
proportionate to the percentage of persons
favoring each Presidential candidate. If
as many as 70% favor one candidate, they
can control the entire delegation. So, it
is entirely possible that, particularly in
eastern Texas, Wallace's votes may have
great impact.
-16-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
WALLACE
Third-Party
No change, everything depends upon how
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
he is treated at the July convention.
Opponents
Responding to an "extremist" charge by
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
McGovern, Wallace delcared, "The extremists
of this country are the six Senators who
voted for the Gulf of Tonkin resolution
and got us in a war and then changed their
minds about it three or four years later.
That's what I call an extremist."
Indiana
Wallace is on the ballot here, facing only
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
Humphrey and Muskie. (Note: Wallace won
29.8% of the vote in 1964, carrying the
industrial counties of Lake and Porter in
northern Indiana.)
Wisconsin
Campaign plans in Wisconsin are relatively
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
light, with rallies only in Milwaukee,
Green Bay, Racine, La Crosse, Wausau and
Sheboygan.
Labor
Organized labor in Wisconsin is blasting
(Milwaukee Journal
away at Wallace, fearing that his primary
3/19)
victories will create havoc in the Demo-
cratic Party and thus ensure Nixon's re-
election. Labor's campaign against Wallace
here was considered very effective in 1968,
despite Wallace's appeal to discontented
blue-collar workers. The Wisconsin labor
campaign was given substantial credit for
cutting Wallace's national showing to 13.57
from the over 20% which public opinion poll
had given him in late September, 1968.
D. ANALYSIS
Wisconsin doesn't have the Southern racial and cultural heritage
which made Florida a fertile field for Wallace, but the same ten
opposing candidates are here to cut up the vote and that may very
well help Wallace's showing. Wallace is trying to broaden his
appeal and gain a certain respectability by developing other
issues here, such as tax reform and the unresponsiveness of
various bureaucracies.
Labor is definitely out to get him, which is understandable,
and if their campaign is as successful in 1972 as it was here
in 1968, they may yet "whittle" the man down to size.
-17-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
WALLACE
The Wallace "rallies" are in evidence in Wisconsin -- his
first here being held in Milwaukee and attracting a crowd
of between 4,000 and 5,000 -- more than any other candidate
has attracted SO far. There appears to be little change in
the Wallace approach, except possibly an easing up on the
busing issue (which is not considered to be of major impor-
tance in this state) , but the ranting and raving and emotional
upheavals are still very much a part of his campaign. By
comparison to some of his opponents' campaigns, at least
Wallace's had a little "action" going for it. Best guess is
that the liberal vote will be split among the major contenders
and Wallace will ride in in second place following Humphrey
in next Tuesday's primary.
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV. cont'd.
McGOVERN
A. ISSUES
Busing
In response to President Nixon's statement
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
on busing, McGovern accused the President
of engaging in "a frantic effort to capital
ize on this emotional issue" in an effort
to distract the attention of the nation
from such issues as the war in Vietnam,
high taxes and unemployment.
Washington Post 3/17
Says that busing should not be an issue
in Wisconsin because no school district in
the area is under court orders to bus
children and there is no great public
pressure to do so.
Nixon Administration
McGovern assailed the Nixon Administration
(Chicago Daily News
for what he called its lack of leadership
3/20)
on the war, the school busing controversy,
the ITT antitrust affair, reordering
national priorities, and the economy.
N.Y.T. 3/19
He condemned the Administration for a
Federal home mortgage policy that he said
was "destroying" ethnic neighborhoods.
Tax Reform
McGovern said he could raise $6 billion in
(Christian Science
new taxes from individual income taxes
Monitor 3/17)
through a sharp increase in the minimum
income tax; could add $17 billion to Federa
revenues by eliminating loopholes in cor-
poration taxes; and, with a shift of estate
and gift taxes to a lifetime cumulative
tax, could raise another $5 billion.
N.Y.T. 3/22
McGovern is one of several Democrat sponsor
of a new tax reform bill in the Senate.
Local Tax Reform
Angry at local tax increases, McGovern's
(Wash. Post 3/17)
newest target, he hit the issue hard in
ILLINOIS where the state's new income tax
was a major issue in the gubernatorial
campaign. He said, "There is a real tax
revolt in this country", and stressed his
plan to close $28 billion in "tax loop-
holes".
-19-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
McGOVERN
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 3/6. Station WOKY,
commercial
Campaign contributions: McGovern saying
"I don't have any big oil money
11
and that he's going to publish the name
of every person who has contributed SO
that people know its "the little people"
who are backing him. (Commercial attache
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 3/5. Station WISN-TV
commercial
Government Secrecy: McGovern saying that
the Government wanted to work the Pakista
theft deal in secret, not tell the Con-
gress, not tell the press or the American
people. That the people have a right to
know what's going on. (Commercial
attached)
Milwaukee Journal, 3/19, newspaper ad
"Little Guys are for McGovern": ad sayin
thanks to the "little guys", the underdog
from South Dakota, the quiet man who has
been right from the start -- is an under-
dog no longer. The ad asks for contribu-
tions from the little people. (ad
attached)
Washington Post, 3/20, newspaper ad
"Help Elect Virginia Delegates": ad re-
questing help in electing Virginia dele-
gates for McGovern and contributions to
his campaign fund. (ad attached)
Comment
McGovern spent a total of 40 hours cam-
paigning in Illinois between last October
and last Wednesday with negligible adver-
tising during that period. According to
figures reported by his Illinois campaign
manager, McGovern spent $62,000 in that
state. (N.Y.T. 3/22)
-20-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV. cont'd.
McGOVERN
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
New Strategy
McGovern revised his presidential campaign
(Wash. Post 3/17)
strategy to recognize what he considers is
the mood of general public protest symbol-
ized by Wallace's heavy vote in the Florida
primary. He plans to stress that dissatis-
faction in the Illinois and Wisconsin pri-
maries, emphasizing tax reform, the war in
Vietnam, and the problems of "little
people" who find themselves paying more to
buy less. He said, "voters
are more
fed up with the way this country is going
than we thought".
Wisconsin
McGovern will campaign throughout the week
(Milwaukee Journal
in Milwaukee, Whitewater, Madison, Platte-
3/19)
ville, Lancaster, LaCrosse, Eau Claire,
Menomonie, River Falls, Superior and Ash-
land. Public events will be held at all
places, his headquarters announced.
Versus the Others
Replying to Senator Jackson's charge that
(N.Y.T. 3/22)
he had "waffled" on the issues, McGovern
said, "I think the biggest waffler among
the liberal Senators so far has been Sena-
tor Jackson, with Humphrey a close second"
and that Jackson had betrayed his own
record on civil rights by opposing busing
and that HHH "leaves us wondering where he
really does stand".
Calif. Demo. Council
The California Democratic Council, an
(N.Y.T. 3/20)
amalgamation of 125 Democratic clubs with a
reported membership of 15,000, voted to bac
McGovern. McGovern fell short, however, by
22 votes of the 60% majority required to
win formal support of the Council. (Note:
this year, all Democratic contenders avoide
the Council like the plague, except Hartke.
Maryland
McGovern is listed on the ballot in
(N.Y.T. 3/24)
Maryland.
D. ANALYSIS
McGovern's climb to 28.5 delegates still does not a front-runner
make. His earlier statement that he hoped to walk away with as
many as 30 delegates from Illinois must have been embarrassing
for him since he only managed to obtain 14. He is clearly the
favorite of most of the newly enfranchised college youths, but
he is not SO popular among working youths, as Florida proved
(where he received less than 20% of the overall youth vote).
-21-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
McGOVERN
In an important tactical change of strategy, McGovern is
now attempting to tame the Wallace vote and detach it from
its champion. A sample of his approach to this rather sticky
proposition follows: "I believe the Governor (Wallace) is an
extremist, but J. believe many of the people who supported the
Governor did so because they are deeply frustrated and dis-
gusted with the way their Government is ignoring their con-
cerns and interests.' McGovern has been trying to identify
himself emotionally with Wallace's "fed-up" sense of grievance,
while discounting Wallace-the-man. His thrust, in some ways
parallel to Muskie's, is subtle and cautious. He obviously
is playing to the Wallace audience in the hopes that he can
identify himself with the same issues but as the better man
to solve them. Wallace has certainly scared everyone, it
seems, and maybe rightly so, but McGovern's approach to down-
grading Wallace's threat is a far sight more sophisticated
than that of Muskie
and Humphrey is being just plain
nice to everyone these days.
The pattern emerging in McGovern's. primary showings is one
that consistently reflects the efforts of his campaign organi-
zation. In New Hampshire, his unexpected good showing derived
in large part from the extraordinary grass-roots organization
he built there and his effective penetration of the blue-collar
areas and, probably, to some extent, the mistakes Muskie made.
His meager showing in Florida matched his meager effort, both
in media and actual stumping, plus a too-divided vote split
among 11 contenders. His not-so-hot Ilinois showing in the
delegate balloting (where his only opponent was Muskie) derived
in part from a not-so-hot effort in that state by his campaign
organization and a minimal media expenditure.
McGovern is concentrating, as are they all, on Wisconsin, but
he will have to pick up a lot more steam and blue-collar votes
than he has so far to make off with more than fourth place
there.
-22-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
LINDSAY
A. ISSUES
Busing
Responding to the President's statement
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
on busing, Lindsay called it "a giant
step backward for our nation" and said it
reflected a "cave-in" to the segregation-
ist views of George Wallace.
Federal Bill of
In Milwaukee, Lindsay proposed a Federal
Rights
Bill of Rights for workers that would in-
(N.Y.T. 3/20)
clude guaranteed employment, job security
and free health care; the program also
would provide pension "portability" or
the right of the worker to take his pension
plan with him from job to job. Lindsay
also called on the Government to create one
million public service jobs involving work
in hospitals, schools, etc.
Tax Reform
He proposed a tax reform package that
(Christian Science
would raise $10 to $15 billion.
Monitor 3/17)
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Not available.
Comment
His organization has cancelled a series
of television commercials in Wisconsin and
his aides say that "it will hurt". Sup-
porters are still trying to raise money.
for his campaign, but it seems highly un-
likely that he will come close to raising
the $300,000 he said he needed for an
effective campaign in this state. Lindsay
staffers have, however, established store-
front headquarters in all the major cities
in the state and are carrying on an exten-
sive telephone operation there.
-23-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
LINDSAY
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Salary Cut-backs
About one-third of Lindsay's national
(N.Y.T. 3/21)
staffers have "volunteered" to work without
pay through the April 4 Wisconsin primary.
Wisconsin
Seeking to obtain the blue-collar vote in
(Wash. Post 3/21)
Wisconsin, Lindsay slept on the couch in
the living room of a Milwaukee steel worker
Arthur Young, and the next day talked about
a workers' bill of rights that would "give
a better shake to the Art Youngs of this
world".
Other Primaries
Lindsay says that whatever the outcome of
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
the Wisconsin primary, he plans to parti-
cipate in the Massachusetts and California
primaries.
Humphrey
Lindsay accused Humphrey of moving to the
(N.Y.T. 3/21)
right saying that HHH could not defeat
Nixon that way. The only way to defeat
Nixon is to fight him "toe to toe" on the
issues. Lindsay returned again and again
to the theme that the U.S. should not have
a "replay" of 1968.
Progressive Ticket
Lindsay urged the nomination of a progres-
(N.Y.T. 3/21)
sive ticket, saying that a centrist ticket
could not win against Mr. Nixon.
D. ANALYSIS
Taking pot shots at Wallace seems to be everybody's game, and
Lindsay is no exception. While attacking Wallace on the one
hand, Lindsay is desperately trying to WOO away the Governor's
support on the other (another ripple in the Muskie, McGovern
syndrome). Lindsay has been denouncing Wallace as a "false
populist and demagogue whose record in Alabama proves that he
is not for the worker".
In spite of the Mayor's continued sniping at Wallace, however,
neither Wallace nor busing are major issues for Lindsay in
Wisconsin. His chief target there is Humphrey and his favorite
theme seems to be that the voters could not stand the "boredom"
of another contest between Humphrey, Nixon and Wallace.
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
LINDSAY
Billing himself as a "fighter", Lindsay thinks he's the
best man to solve the urban crisis, the war in Vietnam,
unemployment, inflation and soaring prices -- if for no
other reason than he's had to face these problems in New
York City. Maybe the results of his shadow-boxing bouts
in Fun City are the reason SO many huge (tax-paying)
corporations have moved elsewhere since the Lindsay admin-
istration took over.
Lindsay is not likely to whip up much enthusiasm in Wis-
consin and best estimate is that he'll end up in sixth
place in the primary there.
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
JACKSON
A. ISSUES
Busing
Responding to President Nixon's busing
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
statement, Jackson denounced it as
"intellectually dishonest" and "an attack
on the Bill of Rights itself". He called
instead for a constitutional amendment to
ban busing.
Campaign Contributors
Speaking at the University of Wisconsin,
(N.Y.T. 3/22)
Jackson again defended his refusal to name
his contributors and denied that he was
being financed by defense contractors.
Tax Reform
Continues to advocate a "fair share tax
(Christian Science
program" and indicated he may come out
Monitor 3/17)
with a comprehensive reform program within
the next three weeks that would close
$12 billion to $20 billion in loopholes.
He may also become one of many Democratic
co-sponsors of a major tax loophole-closing
bill expected to be introduced soon in the
Senate by Mr. Nelson.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 3/5, Station WISN-TV,
commercial
Social Security: Saying the minimum
should go to $150, the maximum to $600.
(commercial attached)
Comment
Jackson commented in a Washington, D.C.
press conference that he plans to move into
Wisconsin on 3/19 to campaign and that he
will spend about $200,000 there.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Wisconsin
Jackson plans to continue his "plain-talk"
(Chicago Tribune 3/18)
campaign in Wisconsin, concentrating on the
national economy, jobs and inflation.
-26-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont 'd.
JACKSON
Illinois
He spoke warmly of Chicago's Mayor Daley,
(Chicago Tribune 3/18)
saying "Let's face it, Mayor Daley is an
effective politician
if HHH had
listened to him in 1968, he would be Presi-
cent today."
North Carolina
His campaign managers now concede they
(Chicago Sun-Times
made a mistake entering Jackson in the
3/20)
North Carolina primary and would get off
the ballot there if they could. Jackson
will not campaign in that state.
New York
Reprèsentative Samuel S. Stratton, Demo-
(N.Y.T. 3/18)
crat from Upstate New York, will be Jack-
son's campaign chairman in New York.
D. ANALYSIS
Jackson probably still faces, to some degree, a recognition
problem in Wisconsin, and will, therefore, spend largely on
media to get him and his stands across to the voters there.
He's right in the middle of the pack on his denunciation of
the President's busing statement; but separate in still advo-
cating a Constitutional amendment to eliminate school busing.
Jackson's stands have always been rather well defined and he
does not seem to be wavering on any of them at this point.
In the Public Broadcasting Service Poll (see Section III) it
was interesting to note that both McGovern and Jackson slipped
after the Florida primary. McGovern's slippage seems reason-
able considering his showing there; but Jackson's drop from
17% before the Florida primary to only 9% afterwards seems
strange in light of his third-place showing in that primary.
Could it be an indication that people are no longer interested
in the man? Best guess is that he will come in fifth in the
Wisconsin primary edging out Lindsay but below Humphrey,
Wallace, Muskie and McGovern.
-27-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
McCARTHY
A. ISSUES
Property Tax
McCarthy called for a graduated property
(Chicago Tribune
taxing system, similar to the graduated
3/19)
income tax, to eliminate the flat rate
and assessed evaluation methods of deter-
mining property taxes.
B. MEDIA
Expenditures
TV
Not available.
Radio
Not available.
Newspaper
Not available.
Creative
The Chicago Sun Times (3/18) carried a
large ad: "Gene McCarthy talks about his
differences with Ed Muskie". WBBM-Chan-
nel 2, 1:00 to 1:05 p.m., and 5:25 to 5:30
p.m., March 21. (ad attached)
N.Y.T. (3/19) carried a reprint of an
Illincis ad in the Week in Review section,
which said, "McCarthy VS. Muskie" and asked
for votes. (ad attached)
Comment
McCarthy apparently went all-out in Illi-
nois, for his staff said that he spent
$250,000 in the primary there.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Wisconsin
McCarthy says he won't campaign seriously
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
in the Wisconsin primary because the field
is too crowded there.
Other Primaries
He said he might campaign in Orecon and
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
possibly New York and definitely plans to
make an intensive effort in California.
Muskie
Assailing Muskie, McCarthy said that his
(Chicago Daily News
one opponent in Illinois has offered no
3/20)
positive programs to solve the nation's
critical problems, and that Muskie has not
called, as McCarthy has, for a national
drug program.
-28-
Competitive Analysis
Report #4
Section IV., cont'd.
McCARTHY
Primary Strategy
McCarthy's primary strategy will be to
(N.Y.T. 3/23)
concentrate his efforts on the major con-
tests with the hope of going to the conven-
tion having demonstrated that he has suf-
ficient national support to make him a
serious candidate for the nomination. If
the party turns him down and fails to
select another candidate and platform meet-
ing his desires, he may use his popular
strength to form a new party.
Chicago Sun-Times
If Wallace continues his winning streak
3/16
in other primaries, McCarthy will take
action and he might not wait until the
convention to do SO.
D. ANALYSIS
With only 37% of the votes in Illinois and no convention dele-
gates committed to him, McCarthy cannot be classified as a
serious contender for the Democratic nomination -- especially
since a portion of that 37% derived from McGovern supporters in
a you-scratch-my-back-and-I'll-scratch-yours move to block
Muskie in the preference contest.
The charismatic aura that surrounded McCarthy's campaign in
1968 and that helped LBJ decide to give it up, is evident this
year by its very nearly total absence. His then great issue
was the war in Vietnam and while that war is still an issue of
considerable proportions, it no longer evokes the near-hysteria
it did four years ago.
McCarthy's aspirations of gathering enough strength in a few
major primaries to go to the convention as a serious candidate
will probably meet with a quiet demise in the next few weeks.
He talks, though, of using his popular strength to form a new
party and he may be quite serious about doing just that if the
Wallace threat continues to loom large on the horizon. How much
of a wrench McCarthy could throw into the convention machinery
is moot, however, when compared to the very considerable damage
Wallace could wreak on that body in July.
R
K
Scali
pad 500 quasterly per mo
L.
Dec Jan Fel done
-Balanee the nov. new?
Perot
-very talk polite w/k.t + wanted
Hinmon R -250
K-whe
P
a letter to David R re
letterpushingt apologizing. must smooth feathers.
at least
sorejen mty on
Time - article on K, Dem
this week.
3/2
K.
no WH can during we -
will use comm curs to
Dalles unless really pressed.
Don nixon - FBI
last miserable teleen
Hallimar Homes Hallomer
- -Send to E up note K saw
-K reports moving
heck
back fr agre at
Date,
mty of E, H, AG, Rose
befere Chine Don & Ed on
Weinberger - friend to Firestene
Harpeis april - Polk
art on K. -sameink
L LATimes - did not
un the Poll certiele
- Peter Dailey
only big Right - media
comp leges - teleph
2-3 mois coming out of ad eddget
Hold off any recomm on Caina
Inil is Enal.
K
Time may full fuld
cheel on Kolm
law school, etc.
all clients
week bill mon.
in Martindale,
- Moo - were t per JM, J
Slans concer
-Passed on Bludorn
no in and
C am a go, 50 in
but holding 150 until
stans Sheeles u/Jm.
Severson
K lowers
1
aplanals
Act
N
Recomm ag mulcahy
not none
3
scaife, Richard
4
Rollins
5
De Roulet.
Buy t + squired the hope
G
re friends cental or Coley
Weinberger, call Firestene
L. ne - 3/8
Back.
me nal - -0-642-8235, (714) H- - 673-5653
(714) 2/1
Seversen House
175 - his asking
155-157 - should have asled
135-145-FMV
-
no more single housing
devel in cal, so anything
on Coastline will have
excellent appreciation
- Can't project 10-15%
but bullish on wastline
- Some rental mat but
wouldn't get a $ pen
me retern
-To be Renancially
advantageous would
Upleep?
have to rely on Depree
-$750 per mo on 1st TD
and tax advantges
on 100,000 " "
- Probably round piggre
is 1000 per mo
- not on mlt generally, no
in round figures
effort to sell, the Despletaled.
Lee nunn
Charles Guckman -
- Doung something for H.
or work w/ Stans
-Will head up archi Comm
for Re - see am
Wallace organizing thru law
enforcement, esp
in n.J.