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This file contains:
Handwritten Notes. This document discusses percent of representation in California. 7 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Wire. This document discusses the latest California presidential primary vote tabulations. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: Primaries: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota. 18 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/7/1972
Handwritten Notes. These documents discusses percentages and results in the California Primary. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/7/1972
Wires. This document discusses George S. McGovern and the California Primary. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Charles Colson to the President. RE: Outcome of California Primary. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/7/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell. RE: Minnesota Poll. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: John Mitchell Decision. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/11/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John M. Mitchell. RE: Vietnam Poll. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1972
Title: Market Opinion Research Primary Day Poll for Detroit News. This document includes opinions of Democrats and Republicans as well as followers of specific candidates. 18 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 5/16/1972
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S. Magruder and Frederic V. Malek to John Mitchell. RE: Report of Wednesday Afternoon Activities. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
From Robert H. Marik through Jeb S. Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Priority Ranking of the States for the Campaign. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell. RE: California Corey Research. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/17/1972
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Peter Dailey's Analysis of Democratic Contenders. 37 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 4/4/1972
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S. Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Weekly Report. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/24/1972
Handwritten Notes. This document outlines a meeting with Mitchell at 9:40 with 60 people and discusses McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staf] [Other Document], 6/14/1972
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26145978
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WHSF: Contested, 32-5
core
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1
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26145978
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title
WHSF: Contested, 32-5
description
This file contains:
Handwritten Notes. This document discusses percent of representation in California. 7 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], no date
Wire. This document discusses the latest California presidential primary vote tabulations. 2 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE: Primaries: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota. 18 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/7/1972
Handwritten Notes. These documents discusses percentages and results in the California Primary. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/7/1972
Wires. This document discusses George S. McGovern and the California Primary. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Charles Colson to the President. RE: Outcome of California Primary. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/7/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell. RE: Minnesota Poll. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1972
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: John Mitchell Decision. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 5/11/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John M. Mitchell. RE: Vietnam Poll. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/18/1972
Title: Market Opinion Research Primary Day Poll for Detroit News. This document includes opinions of Democrats and Republicans as well as followers of specific candidates. 18 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 5/16/1972
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S. Magruder and Frederic V. Malek to John Mitchell. RE: Report of Wednesday Afternoon Activities. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/12/1972
From Robert H. Marik through Jeb S. Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Priority Ranking of the States for the Campaign. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell. RE: California Corey Research. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/17/1972
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman. RE: Peter Dailey's Analysis of Democratic Contenders. 37 pgs. [Subject: White House Staff] [Memo], 4/4/1972
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S. Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Weekly Report. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/24/1972
Handwritten Notes. This document outlines a meeting with Mitchell at 9:40 with 60 people and discusses McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: White House Staf] [Other Document], 6/14/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
32
5
>
White House Staff
Other Document
Handwritten Notes. This document discusses
percent of representation in California. 7 pgs.
32
5
Campaign
Other Document
Wire. This document discusses the latest
California presidential primary vote
tabulations. 2 pg.
32
5
6/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Harry S. Dent to the President. RE:
Primaries: California, New Jersey, New
Mexico, South Dakota. 18 pgs.
32
5
6/7/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten Notes. These documents
discusses percentages and results in the
California Primary. 3 pgs.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Page 1 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
32
5
Campaign
Other Document
Wires. This document discusses George S.
McGovern and the California Primary. 7 pgs.
32
5
6/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Charles Colson to the President. RE:
Outcome of California Primary. 6 pgs.
32
5
5/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell.
RE: Minnesota Poll. 3 pgs.
32
5
5/11/1972
White House Staff
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman.
RE: John Mitchell Decision. 1 pg.
32
5
5/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert M. Teeter to John M. Mitchell.
RE: Vietnam Poll. 5 pgs.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Page 2 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
32
5
5/16/1972
Campaign
Report
Title: Market Opinion Research Primary Day
Poll for Detroit News. This document
includes opinions of Democrats and
Republicans as well as followers of specific
candidates. 18 pgs.
32
5
5/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S.
Magruder and Frederic V. Malek to John
Mitchell. RE: Report of Wednesday
Afternoon Activities. 10 pgs.
32
5
5/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert H. Marik through Jeb S.
Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Priority
Ranking of the States for the Campaign. 4
pgs.
32
5
5/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert M. Teeter to John N. Mitchell.
RE: California Corey Research. 2 pgs.
32
5
4/4/1972
White House Staff
Memo
From Gordon Strachan to H.R. Haldeman.
RE: Peter Dailey's Analysis of Democratic
Contenders. 37 pgs.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Page 3 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
32
5
3/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert C. Odle, Jr. through Jeb S.
Magruder to John N. Mitchell. RE: Weekly
Report. 9 pgs.
32
5
6/14/1972
White House Staff
Other Document
Handwritten Notes. This document outlines a
meeting with Mitchell at 9:40 with 60 people
and discusses McGovern. 2 pgs.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Page 4 of 4
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: H. R. Haldeman
Box Number: 312
Folder:
Campaign 20 Part II May 17-June 6, 1972
Document
Disposition
99
Return Private/PoliticalNOTÉS, NOTES, "CONG Tom STERD..., nd
100
Return
Private/Political mEmO, TERTER TO MITCHELL, 5/26/72
101
Return
Private/Political MEMO, TESTER TO MITCHELL, 5/18/72
102
Return
Private/Political MEMO, PORTER TO MITCHELL, 5/12/72
103
Return
Private/Political NOTE, STRACHAN TO HRH, 5/11/[72]
104
Return
Private/Political MEMO, TRATERTO MITCHELL, 5/18/72
105
Return
Private/Political MARKET OPTION RESEARCH DOLL, 5/16/72
106
Retain
Open
107
Return
Private/Political MEMO, DDLE TO MITCHELL, 5/12/72
108
Return
Private/Political MEMO, MARIK TO MITCHELL, 5/1/72
109
Return
Private/Political MEMO, TERTER TO MITCHELL, 5/17/72
110
Return
Private/Political NOTE/ATTACH., STRACHAN TO HRH, 4/4/72
111
Return
Private/Political mEmo, ODLE TO MITCHELL, 3/24/72
112
Retain
Open
113
Return
Private/Political NOTES, "9:40 MITCHELL, 6/H/[72]
long Tom Steed
(D) Oklahama
4th District
Cong John J: hictal
(0) California
15th Destrict
X
Rep no in Calif
baro - 99 Govin
alem
67% - 99% in
Calif in - 99%
me G
1,523, 429
4590
Hum
1,347, 710
40%
Wallace
161,220
5010
Cheskaln
154,780
4%
muske
71,367
2%
yorty
49,229
1%
mcc
33,392
10%
Jackson
28,067
1%
Sundsay
26,573
190
helper
2,002,561
90%
ashbrook
219,275
10%
MEMORANDUM
OF CALL
TO:
YOU G WERE CALLED BY-
YOU WERE VISITED BY-
OF (Organization) Kathy
PHONE NO.
PLEASE CALL
CODE/EXT.
WILL CALL AGAIN
!S WAITING TO SEE YOU
RETURNED YOUR CALL
WISHES AN APPOINTMENT
MESSAGE
murray Chotener called
N. and said -
" Henshaw is leading
Smits w/95% " of
the rote in."
RECEIVED BY
D
* GPO 1971 O- 446-335 6/7
DATE
TIME
2:20
STANDARD FORM 63
63-108
REVISED AUGUST 1967
GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6
Def.
Delegate -hJ
McGovern 72
Forther
HHH
9
no nontenten incom
27
to tal 109
MEMORANDUM
OF CALL
TO:
YOU WERE CALLED BY-
YOU WERE VISITED BY-
OF (Organization)
PHONE NO.
PLEASE CALL
CODE/EXT.
WILL CALL AGAIN
IS WAITING TO SEE YOU
RETURNED YOUR CALL
WISHES AN APPOINTMENT
MESSAGE
и PI newark
85% app-
me D 182,000 - 51%
H
152,000 - 4990
79. me min.
RECEIVED BY
DATE
TIME
STANDARD FORM 63
GPO :1969-c48-16-80341-1 332-389
63-108
REVISED AUGUST 1967
GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6
CBS morning hero
Projections
me Hovern
43
38
Wallace Humphrly CBS
7
all others
12
no A BC.
L.
Eo mease RR
Rep 3,198
Cal
5 134 178
Dem Regis
RNC
4', 445, 04 Fel
Total Vote (88%) 2,914, 647
3, 3,000,000
5,134
>
10090 proje 3,312 098
Many Se
65% of total Dems
Turport
registered, actually cote
2, , 914,647= 88% of x
3,312,098
x
= 74.5% as
4,445,043
Turnout
ur 88%
mc
G - 45%
mardian
1,363,095
HH
- 39%
1,170,833
says 689
wal
1 5%
156,535
Ohis
5%
138,091
mus
2%
64,357
Yerty
mec
1% each
for
hand
UPI-56
(VOTE COUNTS)
LOS ANGELES--HERE ARE THE LATEST CALIFORNIA PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY VOTE TABULATIONS:
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 88 PCT.
MCGOVERN 1,363,095 45 PCT.
HUMPHREY 1,170,873 39 PCT.
WALLACE 156,535 5 PCT.
CHISHOLM 138,091 5 PCT.
MUSKIE 64,357 2 PCT.
YORTY 41,952 1 PCT.
MCCARTHY 30,049 1 PCT.
JACKSON 24,995 1 PCT.
LINDSAY 23,910 1 PCT.
(WINNER TAKES ALL 271 DELEGATES.)
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 88 PCT.
NIXON 1,750,782 90 PCT.
ASHBROOK 191,327 10 PCT.
-0-
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.--HERE IS THE LATEST VOT TABULATION FROM
THE NEW MEXICO PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY:
DEMOCRATIC PRSIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 96 PCT.
MCGOVERN 48,812 33 PCT.
WALLACE 43,378 29 PCT.
HUMPHREY 38,260 26 PCT.
NUSKIE 6,497 5 PCT.
JACKSON 4,249 3 PCT.
CHISHOLM 3,186 2 PCT.
NONE SHOWN 3,147 2 PCT.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 21 PCT.
NIXON 9,664 90 PCT.
NCCLOSKEY 590 6 PCT.
NONE SHOWN 418 4 PCT.
6-7--TS1104AED
6/7
C called Mardean + some into,
The 78% project
in lcdate
Delept- mc 0-top 2 ÷ 90
engidian n.m.
someone must toll tomece to
Total Dem Vote Regis
Mosimon, Den re n.J.
Cal -
lla
Joh
Hoornotu
ABC - no projec
nBC - 1
CBS - lost at 30am
1115 -
mcG 43
H+ 38
was 7
others 12
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
GORDON
STRACHAN
XMITTED
JWN 7 8:07/m
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
The President
FROM:
Harry S₂ Dent
HSD
SUBJECT:
Primaries: California
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
George McGovern won all four primaries Tuesday to give him
over 900 delegates and clearly establish him as the biggest
vote getter, delegate winner, and primary victor on the
Democrat side. He appeared to be winning by 9% in California
with 56% of the vote counted. Wallace, getting a 5% write-
in vote there, pulled a surprise in New Mexico, finishing
second with 29% and half the delegate votes - - all without
any campaigning.
The President held Ashbrook to 10% in California, while
McCloskey got 6% in New Mexico and one delegate vote.
Senators Eastland, Case, and Metcalf won their primaries.
In South Dakota, Rep. Abourezk will be pitted against
either ex-State Senator Robert Hirsch or Attorney General
Gordon Mydland. (Convention to decide because Hirsch didn't
get 35%).
James Meredith was defeated in the Mississippi GOP Senate
primary by VW dealer Gil Carmichael 80% to 20%.
McGovern won all 271 delegates in California, 9 (half) in
New Mexico, all 17 from South Dakota (no competition), and
at least 59 of New Jersey's 109. McGovern expects 80
votes from New Jersey.
&
Page Two
June 7, 1972
There was no direct head-to-head vote count in New Jersey.
McGovern's slate leader got 30,000 more votes than HHH's
leader with 80% of the vote counted. It was a defeat for
the old Demo machine.
CBS projected only a five point victory margin for McGovern
in California. He won big with youth and split the black
vote in California and New Jersey. Los Angeles and Orange
County almost pulled the Hump through.
HHH says he will keep on, but told his supporters he will
see that the Demos are united to beat RN.
CBS also projects 1266 delegate votes for McGovern at
convention time to 540 for HHH.
McCloskey beat his two primary opponents 24,000 to 17,000 each.
The President's delegate count now stands at 818, with
674 needed for nomination.
In New Mexico, the Demos nominated ex-State Rep. Jack
Daniels to contest with 1970 GOP gubernatorial candidate
Pete Domenici who easily knocked off Dave Cargo --in the
U. S. Senate race.
VOTE FIGURES (UNOFFICIAL)
CALIFORNIA
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY (With 62% precincts reporting)
MCGOVERN
969,243
47%
271 delegates
HUMPHREY
791,034
38%
WALLACE
109,979
5%
CHISHOLM
91,162
5%
MUSKIE
46,161
2%
YORTY
27,420
1.
1%
MCCARTHY
21,808
1%
JACKSON
18,320
1%
LINDSAY
17,456
1%
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (With 61% precincts reporting)
RN
1,200,921
90%
96 delegates
ASHBROOK
130,787
10%
NEW MEXICO
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY (With 96% precincts reporting)
MCGOVERN
48,812
33%
10 delegates
WALLACE
43,378
29%
8
HUMPHREY
38,260
26%
0
MUSKIE
6,497
5%
0
JACKSON
4,241
3%
0
CHISHOLM
3,168
1%
0
NONE SHOWN
3,417
2%
-
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (With 96% precincts reporting)
RN
48,793
89%
13 delegates
MCCLOSKEY
3,300
6%
1
NONE SHOWN
2,557
5%
&
CONVERSATION WITH HARRY DENT - WEDNESDAY, JUNE 7, 1972
D - Hey, ever since I talked to you last time I've been talking to
the Big Man.
G - That's what I understand.
D - He just wanted to chew the fat all the way around about different
races and
G - He also wanted to
...
D - But I told him the problem in New Jersey was that they have voting
machine problems up there plus the 3 hour delay in California so
I explained some of the things he is looking for and he accepted
all that fine. He just wanted to chew around about interpretation
about what it looked like, so forth. He's of the opinion that
McGovern didn't do as well and that this might give a little more
heart to the Stop McGovern forces. The fact that he didn't win
by about as much as he should have in California and SO forth.
But we're still reaching for that magic figure. I told him that
it was a good turnout. We just didn't have any percentage figure
yet.
G - OK. Did he ask about the network projections?
D - I told him NBC projected an 8% and that CBS had said 5%. I really
just threw him a lot of that stuff without him asking for it.
But we're still reaching for more.
G - OK.
D - As we get it we'll feed it. The hardest thing to get I've ever
seen.
G - What happened do you think?
&
- 2 -
D - What? In California?
G - Well, I mean in terms of -- should we have set up a different
system to get the results, or what?
D - No, you see, the problem is that 3 hour delay in California
just really messed things up and it's thrown everybody off out
there in California. So I don'tr - that was the problem - we
were running 3 hours behind and then add 3 hours to that. It
messes everything up.
G - Then do you think, is there any way we could have prevented it
with a different system to get the results?
D - I don't think SO with that extra 3 hour delay. I don't see it
because you have to get it officially. These boards just aren't
open.
G - Right.
D - Even the wire services. We've been calling Sacramento and Los
Angeles to get the latest results. We can't get anyone to answer.
G - Nobody at the Secretary of State's office?
D - Nope. None of those.
G - By the way, Mardian called me, and I guess you've been talking
to him. He's having trouble getting the same thing. Well,
whenever
...
D - The President feels that those TV debates may have cut McGovern
back some. It's an indication. I think that too.
G - Really? You think they were that effective?
D - I think it had some impact.
G - The old rule, if you're ahead, don't debate.
- 3 -
D - That's right. Of course he also thinks the Kennedy people might
have bought the Field Boll.
G - Oh, you're kidding me?
D - No, that's what he thinks.
G - Oh, that's great. That's amazing.
1
D - All right. We'll holler as soon as we get some more.
G - All right. I'd appreciate it.
D - Righto.
G - Thanks.
4
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
The President
FROM:
Harry St. Dent
SUBJECT:
Primaries: California
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
George McGovern won all four primaries Tuesday to give him
over 900 delegates and clearly establish him as the biggest
vote getter, delegate winner, and primary victor on the
Democrat side. He appeared to be winning by 9% in California
with 56% of the vote counted. Wallace, getting a 5% write-
in vote there, pulled a surprise in New Mexico, finishing
second with 29% and half the delegate votes all without
any campaigning.
The President held Ashbrook to 10% in California, while
McCloskey got 6% in New Mexico and one delegate vote.
Senators Eastland, Case, and Metcalf won their primaries.
In South Dakota, Rep. Abourezk will be pitted against
either ex-State Senator Robert Hirsch or Attorney General
Gordon Mydland. (Convention to decide because Hirsch didn't
get 35%).
James Meredith was defeated in the Mississippi GOP Senate
primary by VW dealer Gil Carmichael 80% to 20%.
McGovern won all 271 delegates in California, 9 (half) in
New Mexico, all 17 from South Dakota (no competition), and
at least 59 of New Jersey's 109. McGovern expects 80
votes from New Jersey.
Page Two
June 7, 1972
There was no direct head-to-head vote count in New Jersey.
McGovern's slate leader got 30,000 more votes than HHH's
leader with 80% of the vote counted. It was a defeat for
the old Demo machine.
CBS projected only a five point victory margin for McGovern
in California. He won big with youth and split the black
vote in California and New Jersey. Los Angeles and Orange
County almost pulled the Hump through.
HHH says he will keep on, but told his supporters he will
see that the Demos are united to beat RN.
CBS also projects 1266 delegate votes for McGovern at
convention time to 540 for HHH.
McCloskey beat his two primary opponents 24,000 to 17,000 each.
The President's delegate count now stands at 818, with
674 needed for nomination.
In New Mexico, the Demos nominated ex-State Rep. Jack
Daniels to contest with 1970 GOP gubernatorial candidate
Pete Domenici who easily knocked off Dave Cargo. in the
U. S. Senate race.
VOTE FIGURES (UNOFFICIAL)
CALIFORNIA
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY (With 62% precincts reporting)
MCGOVERN
969,243
47%
271 delegates
HUMPHREY
791,034
38%
WALLACE
109,979
5%
CHISHOLM
91,162
5%
MUSKIE
46,161
2%
YORTY
27,420
1%
MCCARTHY
21,808
1%
JACKSON
18,320
1%
LINDSAY
17,456
1%
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (With 61% precincts reporting)
RN
1,200,921
90%
96 delegates
ASHBROOK
130,787
10%
NEW MEXICO
DEMOCRAT PRIMARY (With 96% precincts reporting)
MCGOVERN
48,812
33%
10 delegates
WALLACE
43,378
29%
8
HUMPHREY
38,260
26%
0
MUSKIE
6,497
5%
0
JACKSON
4,241
3%
0
CHISHOLM
3,168
1%
0
NONE SHOWN
3,417
2%
-
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (With 96% precincts reporting)
RN
48,793
89%
13 delegates
MCCLOSKEY
3,300
6%
1
NONE SHOWN
2,557
5%
A Less-Than-Satisfactorily-Organized
Review of Selected Network Coverage of
California Primary - 6/6/72
At 3:30 a.m. CBS estimated McGovern would win by 43-38 over
HHH with 7% to Wallace. In comments thruout the evening it was
generally expected that such a margin, significantly smaller than
the polls anticipated, would to some degree slow McGovern's
momentum. Mankiewicz early in the evening predicted a 5-6 point
lead and Gary Hart, McGovern's campaign director, predicted a
8-10 point margin.
With 30% tallied in California, McGovern led 48-36. He barely
beat Wallace in New Mexico -- 32-30.
ABC's 12 o'clock show opened w/returns available and then had
HHH who, as Smith accurately said, didn't sound a "last hurrah. 11
He recalled Adlai's problems in '56 when he didn't win primaries
but got the nod. He had no regrets over campaign SO far -- had to
be done this way. Even if he doesn't make it, HHH will be dis- -
appointed but not sad too much else to do.
McG then on ABC voicing confidence that Govs were reassured
Preceding report on problems of write-in campaigns in Calif, Smith
noted that the man w/the most popular votes is being given least
chance for nomination.
Reasoner doesn't see Dems all that disunited, especially re:
'68. McG's leading position pulls teeth from many of the more
destructive party elements tho the debates so far have provided
much ammo for GOP as have past McG statements. In concluding
commentary, HKS said he still finds the McG phenomenon unexplained.
A nice, non-magnetic man w/a Senate record certainly modest compared
to HHH and he's not a proven national vote getter, garnering only a
fifth so far in all primaries for the No. 3 spot. HKS views McG as
he views a 747 he knows it can't fly but it does
Reasoner
declined to say whether McG is a Goldwater w/strong tho few backers
or an FDR who has tapped a broad sentiment.
NBC, in 1:00 a.m. report, said McGovern had maintained his
lead of 15% in raw stix, but in key precincts the race was "neck and
neck. 11 Chancellor said McGovern had made a "major gain" among
black voters pulling even with HHH and McGovern was getting twice
the Chicano vote of HHH another "breakthru, " said John.
&
2
"The nomination is still elusive, " said John. "McGovern
hasn't got it locked up. " Commenting on lively scene at HHH
Hdqtrs, Chancellor said: "It looks like the nite the Lusitania
didn't sink. "
Utley reported from McGovern Hdqtrs that McGovern aides
now see a closer race with McGovern winning by 5-10%, and they
feel that polls may have caused overconfidence.
NBC estimated RN would get 90% of vote. (Smith on ABC said
RN has nomination wrapped up -- he's safe, for those who were
worried, said HKS.) Chancellor said 10% for Ashbrook indicates
there could be a problem for RN in Nov. with disaffected con-
servatives. Reagan, on tape, represented RN at victory party
and he warned against GOP overconfidence and said GOP must
increase its registration figures.
Chancellor, on NBC, said "It does begin to look like McGovern's
day. 11 He indicated that McGovern would probably win, but by less
than early margin of 15%. Brinkley said he didn't see why Calif.
election officials were upset by nets projections; it's nothing new,
he said, as newspapers have put out early election editions for a
century. (Thruout evening, nets' frustration especially NET
and NBC was evident over slowdown.)
McGovern, on NBC, said: "We're on the way to the nomination. 11
He cited support in industrial state of N.J. and diverse state of
Calif. as proof of his appeal, and he said he'd probably win on 1st
ballot. He said blacks were voting for him in greater numbers
because they were beginning to recognize him and what be stood
for. And he said that after N.Y. primary, he'd begin to go after
uncommitted delegates.
HHH, on NBC, pointed out that he'd won several primaries,
and he said the nominee will be named at convention, not in Calif.
He'll go on to Miami, no matter the result in Calif. He said he'd
spent $11, 000 in N.J. while McGovern had spent $250, 000. He said
Wallace had done well in primaries, including New Mex., and he
"may be the balance of power" at convention. Finally, he pointed
out that Texas, Missouri, and some border states haven't been
heard from yet.
&
3
Later NBC showed various polls which reflected McG's gains
in recent weeks. Still he trailed RN 55-45 in Gallup in all but
one and that was a new Quayle Poll of Calif. which found McG
leading RN 51-49. And w/Field showing the 2 at 41-41, Chancellor
pointed to Calif's barometer reputation saying these polls could be
important and they also show that McG would not represent the
disaster Goldwater-type year which has been suggested by some.
After film of McG's speech laden w/humor "We Can't Believe
We Won the Whole Thing" and sorrow over RFK -- Chancellor
noted that McG had picked up many of RFK's supporters, and now,
4 years after that death, he "almost has" the nomination picking up
370 new delegates Tuesday.
In a 10 minute special at 11:30 abbreviated from planned 30 min,
CBS said McG won S. Dakota and seems to be leading elsewhere.
With 1% in -- Orange and San Mateo Counties -- McG led 51-36.
A CBS survey of 2,000 voters statewide found McG ahead by 5 points,
not by as much as the 15-20% margins in polls. And Mankiewicz
was predicting a 5-6% win. Still, said Cronkite, almost all elements
of the electorate backed McG -- all across the board except for the
aging and aerospace workers. (Survey also showed Prop. 9 - - the
strong anti-pollution bill -- going under 2-1.)
CBS came on again around 1:20 and went til 3:30. Note several
times of Wallace's surprisingly strong New Mex. showing where
he'll split delegates 9-9 with McG. CBS predicted McG, after N. Y.,
will have 1, 266 delegates. And tho he won all 4 contests Tues, they
weren't the runaways expected.
HHH on CBS/NBC before a happy cheering crowd as he went on
for seeming hours good filler for nets whose film libraries were
obviously low -- thanking virtually everyone who had worked for him
in Calif and pointedly directed cameras to his young supporters.
McG on film accepting congrats for record 4-primaries in a day
and for birth of grandson. Chances now better than 50-50, said
George, recalling Muskie/HHH descriptions of Calif. as the decisive
contest. He then emphasized Dem unity and his hopes for a Muskie
or HHH endorsement tho he won't push either man.
4
From Houston, Mike Wallace w/late owls Lucey, Hearnes,
Carter and Mrs. Geo. Wallace. She stressed the popular vote
of her husband and said it's certainly not all wrapped up for McG.
Hearnes reiterated that he's more for Muskie than Muskie. Carter
voiced concern at McG having delegates all out of proportion to his
popular votes and the Ga. gov. emphasized McG's knowledge of
reform rules and hopes for challenges. Several times Carter
emphasized that Dem govs were united in wanting to beat RN and
he feels the Pres. is vuluerable, He also noted McG did say he'd
run on platform of party even if it differs from some of his programs.
(Carter suggested McG, Muskie, HHH and Wallace play key role in
platform preparation -- especially important that Wallace be so
included. ) Note by Mike Wallace that only 3 of 25 or 28 Dem govs
had indicated McG could beat RN in their states -- Luccy, Anderson
(Minn.) and S.D.'s gov. Lucey's only response was that poll wasn't
unscientific. The Wisc. gov. emphasized McG is a reasonable man,
govs who'd never met him before now know that and he'll get the
POWs back.
Mike Wallace noted similarity of Dem govs' inability to agree
with position of GOP govs in '64 and '68 - that's right, said
Cronkite, those liberal govs couldn't decide who they wanted and
as a "consequence, 11 they got BG in '64 and RN in '68.
Teddy White on CBS said if margin is as close - - 2-5% as
sample precincts indicate, then HHH will have scored in debates by
forcing McG to defend his programs. Schoemacher of CBS said 4-5
pt. margin would hurt McG's momentum. White suggested such a
result could be claimed by HHH as his "moral victory. 11 Still, don't
mourn for McG, said Teddy, as he was with but 7% in polls a few
months ago and this March of McGovern has been one of most
astounding factors ever in US politics. Cronkite added that we
shouldn't sneeze at a 4-5 point margin.
Schoemacher said a McG aide told him they'd not press for an
actual figure in platform for DOD budget cut nor would they push
$1, 000 income grant. Asked what welfare stand would be, the aide
said clean up the mess. White sees platform as rescue operation
for McG - - get him on more thought-out ground.
White noted concern for RN in 70-20 McG over HHH in initial
survey of Calif's youth voters -- there'll be 2-1/2 M this fall and
88% of new registrants are in that group. Schoemacher said there
5
are 2 general thrusts in McG effort: (1) alienation; (2) a generational
changeover - the old simply must go. Note of McG's many under - 30
operatives. As for McG in Miami, White said 3 McG calls - to
Chisholm, Hearnes and Daley could wrap it up for McG if he were
another man and if "old politics" still existed. Can't do today, tho,
said Teddy. Ile also predicted Ill. delegate battle will go to floor
and McG can't control insurgents on that issue. Nor can he avoid
a stand on busing so it's by no means wrapped up, said White who
warned if Dems started playing w/racial quotas in delegations on
the floor, they'd be dealing w/social dynamite.
NET special (11 p.m. - 3:15 a. m. but not all of it monitored)
opened with MacNeil saying that what we may be witnessing is not
only winner of Dem nomination, but -- "it seems to be becoming
less bizarre everyday" a possible new Pres i.e. McGovern.
He said the "special mood" of elcctorate-alienation seems to be
aiding George Vanocur said HHH's Calif. campaign was "one of
the more heroic efforts" he'd seen, as HHH had no organization and
had to "carry the whole campaign on his back. 11
McGovern, on NET, said "every indication we've seen" in
Calif. "indicates a decisive McGovern victory. " He said he'd
assured Dem govs he'd listen to their views. He said all the govs
"felt much better, 11 and that Gov. Carter had told many people that
he was reassured. McGovern also said he won't write off the south,
and felt he'd carry some Southern, border, plains, and Western
states if he were nominee.
Haynes Johnson of Post on NET pushed his thesis of the alienated
citizen w/considerable fervor. Public is anti-institution, anti-party,
anti-Establishment. McG is seen as quiet, trustworthy,
6
honest. He's a quiet man in a time when public wants quiet. John
Mitchell can't really believe only Dems. are alienated from each
other, said Johnson who also said GOP primaries mean nothing. RN
is vulnerable to current spirit of public and he's beatable. War,
crime, inflation and other problems of '68 which helped elect him
still exist. Johnson also said a broad coalition will be needed to win.
And he asserted that RN also is hurt by lack of emotional hold on public
and connection of minority GOP to big business.
Lucey, Gary Hart and ManKiewicz, all on NET, had full opportunity
to tell us honesty, trust, credibility would be the key issue. Hart said
country is ready for a man who tells the truth. ManKiewicz said public
doesn't want "politicians" and RN is the "quinessential politician. 11
Frank said campaign's key word will be honest, not radical. ManKiewicz
said McG wasn't type to make backroom deals etc but Jess Unruh said
those deals would certainly be made by McG but if A he pulled the usual
ticket-balancing act re: VP, he'd be in trouble as he has very little
room to backpedal where it's visible. And if he goes to old geog. /ideol.
way of balancing ticket, he'll destroy a great deal of his credibility,
said Unruh. The mustachioed ex-Big Daddy also said McG had obscured
and obfuscated issues and it's unlikely he can do this in the 3 national
campaign months.
When informed of NBC's projection of McG as winner, NET,
mistakenly, said McG was heading for 60%. "Fantastic, just fantastic, 11
said Vanocur. Concluding the show, Liz Drew, admittedly pontificating,
said we may look back on last few weeks as a truly historic period
(mind you, she was referring to the California "debates, 11 not Moscow
observer). The voters heard the major issues argued out and they made
a decisive choice. Vanocur retreated to some mysterious Mt. Olympus
to tell us that you just can't use labels anymore. There's something almost
mystical it's like trying to understand War and Peace as a young man,
said Sander there's "a mystical force" driving ahead in this society.
(Apparently some NET producer concluded that the 4 hours of bright lights
had overcome the increasingly intense Vanocur as the show was called to a
quick halt to the surprise of the anchormen.
With 39% counted in California, it's 47-37 for McG.
In New Jersey,
early estimates of 81 of 109 delegates for George were scaled down to 63.
#
#
#
Committee for the Re-election of the President
June 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM TO:
Jeb S. Magruder
FROM:
DeVan L. Shumway
SUBJECT:
Plans for the Evening of the California
Primary - June 6
Due to the lateness of the hour of reporting returns from the
California Primary, we plan no extensive manning of the press
section this evening. My estimate, based on years of covering
the California Primary as a political writer is it will be midnight
or after before we are able to get any substantial returns.
However, we have arranged for Senator Dole to appear on NBC's
election analysis program beginning at 11:30 p.m. It is my feeling
that at this stage we should utilize that appearance simply to say
that the President has won more primaries than anyone else, thus
showing that the people support and respect his presidency. Dole
will undoubtedly also want to take a couple of minor jabs at Humphrey,
but I think we should discourage him from any all out assaults
until a determination is made on a strategy. I will speak with
him today on this subject.
As a follow-up we hope to issue statements from Dole and Frank Dale
early tomorrow. The formulation of those statements will be
relatively broadbrush -- again pointing to the victories of the
President. I would suggest we use Dole in this case to add a little
confusion to the Democrats by pointing to the stop McGovern movement
that has developed already among the Southern governors and predict
that it will continue to enlarge until it includes other governors,
senators and representatives. The Dale statement should, of course,
hit the grass roots' theme for the President and point to voter
satisfaction as evidenced by the latest polls taken in the middle of
his Russian trip. (I intend to get together with Cliff Miller on these
points today and try to refine them somewhat).
Governor Reagan plans a 10:00 a.m. PDT press conference in California
to furnish voters there with an analysis and again to praise the
President's popularity. I will be in touch with either Jack Easton
or Lyn Nofziger to assist them in developing a line, but again I
suggest the Governor indicate only that the McGovern victory is not
terribly significant in a state with a traditionally low vote in primaries
leading to a choice of more liberal, far out candidates.
The next follow-up on the California Primary will come on Thursday
with Mr. Mitchell's press briefing of selected members of the
Washington press corps. We are preparing questions and answers for
him now and I would suggest that we sit down with him tomorrow to
discuss the line he may want to promote.
The final element in this week will be Mr. Mitchell's appearance
on Face the Nation on Sunday which gives us a nationwide audience
to begin whatever strategy we develop.
cc: Ann Dore
Cliff Miller
Powell Moore
Gordon Strachan
Dent
Cal - 30h delay
most beh SF + A+OrCaty
HH win in LA or,
losing in SF are
9a - 79% precents
# BI
I104A
McG 45%
number
1,234,029
HI
38
1,035 465 1,035,465
wal
oh
6
156,122
Cares
5
124,092
mus
2
58,632
Yorty
leach
mec,
Jae
Rep 90-10
Cal Count completed nest 2hrs
LA suprised FH ahead by
30,800 LA cnts
w/52% of cote
numbers of Cal cote
go of SF vote +Or Cnty
numbers
90 of Turnout
3 net Projec's
6/7
L.
905
- Latest Results.
3 net puyeis:
1
way areas not in + here
might change figures
G Joan Dent +
Cal Turnout -
N.J. Del Satuation
nBc -
Henley
NJ- - MCG 70 dels of 109
ЛВС Progee 79
Cal - "NBC Proj 8% 46 to 38
80% at 9400
Countal
3:30 3: am CBS last projec?
ABC - ne projec
Dent - no 90 of turnout "good"
- vote count 3.hrs.
P
Dent 945
ACCOVERN) YWOOD--A JUBILANT GEORGE MCGOVERN TOLD HIS CHEERING
SUPPORTERS HOLL LAST NIGHT THEIR "SPIRIT, EFFORT AND VISION" WILL "CARRY
US TO VICTORY IN MIAMI AND THEN TO THE WHITE HOUSE."
"I CAN'T BELIEVE WE WON THE WHOLE THING," MCGOVERN JOKED WHEN HE
APPEARED AT THE HOLLYWOOD PALLADIUM SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
TURNING SERIOUS, HE SAID, "I AM GRATEFUL FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE
PEOPLE OF CALIFORNIA, THE PEOPLE IN THE SUBURBS, FARMS AND CITIES,
THE OLD AND THE YOUNG, THE INDEPENDENTS AND THE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS."
HE CALLED ON THE AUDIENCE TO "WORK TOGEHTER" TO "PULL THE ENTIRE
NATION TOGETHER," AND ADDED, "I AM CONFIDENT THIS FRESH SPIRIT,
EFFORT AND VISION WILL CARRY US TO VICTORY IN MIAMI AND THEN TO THE
WHITE HOUSE."
MCGOVERN SAID HIS SUCCESS WAS TINGED WITH AN ELEMENT OF "SADNESS,"
RECALLING THAT SEN. ROBERT KENNEDY WAS ASSASSINATED ON THE NIGHT
OF THE CALIFORNIA PRIMARY FOUR YEARS AGO.
"...WE REMEMBER THAT NIGHT FOUR YEARS AGO THIS VERY DAY, BUT WHAT
WE'LL REMEMBER LONGER ARE THOSE WORDS HE SAID: 'WE CAN CHANGE THE
DIRECTION OF THIS COUNTRY IF ONLY WE HAVE THE COURAGE TO STAY
INVOLVED'."
ASKED EARLIER ABOUT HIS PROSPECTS, MCGOVERN SAID HE HAD A 50-50
CHANCE OF WINNING THE NOMINATION ON THE FIRST BALLOT IF ONE OF THE
OTHER CANDIDATES WOULD ENDORSE HIM. OTHERWISE, MCGOVERN ADDED, HE
WOULD HAVE TO WORK ON 200 UNCOMMITTED DELEGATES.
ASKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING HUMPHREY'S SUPPORT,
MCGOVERN SAID, "HE AND I KNOW HOW TO TALK TO EACH OTHER ON A MAN-TO-MAN
BASIS.
"WE HAVE A HIGH REGARD FOR ECH OTHER," HE ADDED. "I THINK MAYBE
SOMETHING CAN BE WORKED OUT."
6/7--GE858A
(REPUBLICANS)
WASHINGTON--REPUBLICANS BELIEVE SEN. GEORGE MCGOVERN WILL WIN
THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION. THEY ALREADY ARE PLANNING TO
ATTACK HIM BY USING THE CRITICISM OF SEN. HUBERT HUMPHREY.
"THE MCGOVERN RECORD AND HIS PARTY PLATFORM WILL STAND IN SHARP
1
CONTRAST TO THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF PRESIDENT NIXON," REP. JOHN
RHODES, R-ARIZ., CHAIRMAN OF THE GOP PLATFORM COMMITTEE, TOLD A NEWS
CONFERENCE TUESDAY.
"WE CAN LOOK FOR A DEMOCRAT PLATFORM THAT WILL, IN THE WORDS OF MR.
HUMPHREY, 'SCARE THE COUNTRY HALF TO DEATH WITH BILLION DOLLAR
SCHEMES NOBODY WILL ACCEPT'," RHODES SAID.
RHODES' LIBERAL USE OF HUMPHREY STATEMENTS, MADE DURING THE
MINNESOTA SENATOR'S CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY CAMPAIGN AGAINST
MCGOVERN, REFLECTED THE GOP'S ZEST OVER CAMPAIGNING AGAINST A DIVIDED
DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND ITS ANTICIPATION THAT MCGOVERN'S PROPOSALS WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO REPUBLICAN ATTACK.
RHODES DISMISSED THE DEMOCRATIC PLATFORM COMMITTEE'S REGIONAL
HEARINGS AS A "TRAVELING CIRCUS" AND SAID REPUBLICANS WERE INSTEAD
POLLING MORE THAN 60,000 AMERICANS BY MAIL ON ISSUES RANGING FROM
BUSING TO VIETNAM AND TAX REFORM.
HE SAID THE 108-MEMBER REPUBLICAN PLATFORM COMMITTEE WOULD STUDY
THE RETURNS, THEN CONVENE IN MIAMI BEACH A WEEK BEFORE THE GOP
NATIONAL CONVENTION BEGINS AUG. 21. RHODES SAID THE COMMITTEE WOULD
HEAR TESTIMONY FROM "THE LARGER ORGANIZATIONS AND THOSE OF CABINET
RANK IN THE ADMINISTRATION" ON AUG. 14, 15 AND 16.
6/7--GE910A
UPI-6
(POLITICS)
LOS ANGELES--GEORGE MCGOVERN TODAY BEAT HUBERT HUMPHREY IN THE
ORUCIAL CALIFORNIA PRIMARY- SWEPT PRIMARIES IN THREE OTHER STATES
-- TO MOVE FAR OUT IN FRONT AS THE CANDIDATE TO BEAT FOR THE
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION.
BUT MCGOVERN'S MARGIN OF VICTORY IN CALIFORNIA, LESS THAN HALF THE
20 PER CENT PROJECTED BY POLLS, MAY NOT HAVE BEEN BIG ENOUGH TO
LAUNCH A BANDWAGON BEFORE THE NATIONAL CONVENTION.
MCGOVERN'S TOTAL OF DELEGATE VOTES CLIMBED TO 926.75, WITH 271
FROM CALIFORNIA; AT LEAST 59 AND POSSIBLY MORE FROM NEW JERSEY; 17
FROM HIS HOME STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA, AND 10 FROM NEW MEXICO.
MCGOVERN SAID THE QUARTET OF VICTORIES "SET THE STAGE FOR A
VICTORY IN MIAMI BEACH" BUT HUMPHREY REFUSED TO GIVE UP.
UNDAUNTED BY HIS LOS IN CALIFORNIA, BEING SHUT OUT IN NEW MEXICO,
AND PICKING UP ONLY 4 DELEGATES (HE IS ALSO COUNTING ON 17
UNCOMMITTED) IN NEW JERSEY, HUMPHREY SAID, "I AM NOT DISHEARTENED, I
AM NOT DISCOURAGED, I AM GOING TO MIAMI AND WE ARE GOING TO GET THIS
NOMINATION."
GEORGE WALLACE PULLED A STARTLING UPSET IN NEW MEXICO AND WAS
RUNNING THIRD IN CALIFORNIA WITH A WRITE-IN EFFORT.
WALLACE RAN A CLOSE SECOND TO MCGOVERN IN NEW MEXICO, PUSHED
HUMPHREY INTO THIRD AND PICKED UP EIGHT UNEXPECTED DELEGATES.
PRESIDENT NIXON CLINCHED A FIRST BALLOT NOMINATION BY WINNING ALL
FOUR PRIMARIES TO CONTINUE HIS UNDEFEATED SKEIN. HE ADDED 163
DELEGATE VOTES TO GIVE HIM A TOTAL OF 818. IT TAKES 674 FOR THE
NOMINATION.
A GLANCE AT THE FOUR RACES:
CALIFORNIA--MCGOVERN WON BY CARRYING ALL BUT EIGHT OF THE STATE'S
58 COUNTIES, BUT HUMPHREY POLLED BIG MAJORITIES IN TWO OF THE STATE'S
MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES, LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE.
NEW JERSE -MCGOVERN EDGED HUMPHREY FOR THE SEVEN AT-LARGE
DELEGATES IN THE ONLY STATEWIDE RACE BUT CASHED IN ON ORGANIZATION TO
SCORE HEAVILY IN CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. HE PICKED UP 59 DELEGATES
AND HIS MANAGERS CLAIMED THE TOTAL WOULD GO TO 80.
NEW MEXICO MCGOVERN. WITH 06 PER CENT OF THE PRECINCTS REPORTED,
EDGED WALLACE 33 PER CENT TO 29 PER CENT. MCGOVERN TOOK 10 DELEGATES
AND WALLACE 8.
SOUTH DAKOTA--MCGOVERN NOT CHALLENGED.
IN CALIFORNIA, WITH 64 PER CENT OF THE PRECINCTS REPORTING,
MCGOVERN HAD 46 PER CENT; HUMPHREY, 38 PER CENT; YORTY, 1 PER CENT;
MUSKIE 2 PER CENT, JACKSON 1 PER CENT; CHISHOLM, 5 PER CENT; LINDSAY
1 PER CENT; MCCARTHY 1 PER CENT; AND WALLACE 5 PER CENT.
6-7--PA847AED
UPI-8
(HUMPHREY)
BEVERLY HILLS--SEN. HUBERT HUMPHREY STILL IS CONFIDENT HE WILL WIN
THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AT MIAMI.
"I AM NOT DISHEARTENED, I AM NOT DISCOURAGED," HE TOLD A TV
AUDIENCE LAST NIGHT AT A TIME WHEN HE TRAILED GEORGE MCGOVERN IN THE
EARLY RETURNS FROM THE CALIFORNIA PRIMARY ELECTION.
"I AM GOING TO MIAMI AND WE ARE GOING TO GET THIS NOMINATION.
WHILE THIS IS A GREAT PRIMARY, THE IMPORTANT DECISION WILL BE MADE IN
MIAMI."
HUMPHREY FLEW TO THE NATIONAL GOVERNORS' CONFERENCE AT HOUSTON
LATE LAST NIGHT BEFORE FINAL RETURNS WERE TABULATED AND WAS SCHEDULED
TO HOLD A NEWS CONFERENCE THIS MORNING TO DISCUSS THE CALIFORNIA
PRIMARY.
BEFORE HE LEFT, HE TOLD A TV INTERVIEWER:
"AS I SAID BEFORE, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED IN CALIFORNIA, I WOULD
NOT DROP OUT. I'M GOING TO THE GOVERNORS' MEETING AND ASK THEM, WHO
CAN DO THE BEST JOB AGAINST RICHARD NIXON?'
"AND I'LL SAY THAT I CAN," HE ADDED.
IN A TELEPHONE CALL TO HIS SUPPORTERS IN NEW JERSEY, WHERE HIS
DELEGATES CAME IN SECOND TO THOSE PLEDGED TO MCGOVERN, HUMPHREY SAID
HE FELT HE DID PRETTY WELL THERE.
"DON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SURPRISE A LOT OF PEOPLE," HE SAID IN
THE TELEPHONE CALL. "I FEEL THAT WE WILL DO MUCH BETTER THAN THE
PUNDITS HAVE INDICATED. THIS THING IS WIDE OPEN YET. NO ONE HAS
LOCKED IT UP."
6/7--GE902A
UPI-9
(NIXON)
THURMONT, MD. PRESIDENT NIXON WORKED IN SECLUSION AT HIS CAMP
DAVID MOUNTAIN RETREAT TODAY, GIVING RISE TO SPECULATION HE MIGHT BE
PREPARING FOR HIS FIRST NEWS CONFERENCE IN MORE THAN 10 WEEKS.
NIXON FLEW TO CAMP DAVID BY HELICOPTER TUESDAY FROM THE WHITE
HOUSE. ACCOMPANYING HIM WAS H. R. HALDEMAN, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF
STAFF, WHO CARRIED A BULGING BRIECASE. AN AIDE SAID NIXON WOULD BE
"CONCENTRATING ON DOMESTIC MATTERS.'
-0-
LOS ANGELES PRESIDENT NIXON OFFICIALLY WON ENOUGH DELEGATE VOTES
IN TUESDAY'S PRIMARIES TO ENSURE RENOMINATION AT THE REPUBLICAN
NATIONAL CONVENTION IN AUGUST.
HIS CALIFORNIA VICTORY OVER REP. JOHN ASHBROOK GAVE NIXON 96
DELEGATES, SWELLING HIS TOTAL TO 729. IT TAKES 674 TO WIN THE
NOMINATION.
NIXON ALSO WON 14 DELEGATES WITHOUT CHALLENGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
TOOK 13 OF THE 14 DELEGATES ELECTED IN NEW MEXICO. THE 14TH WENT TO
REP. PAUL MCCLOSKEY.
MCCLOSKEY'S NEW MEXICO DELEGATE WAS HIS FIRST. ASHBROOK HASN'T
WON ANY.
6/7--GE905A
074A
TABS 6-7
CALIFORNIA TABS
LOS ANGELES (UPI)-HERE ARE THE LATEST CALIFORNIA PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY VOTE TABULATIONS:
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 56 PCT.
MCGOVERN 876,343 47 PCT.
HUMPHREY 706,864 38 PCT.
WALLACE 100,104 5 PCT.
CHISHOLMN 80,235 4 PCT.
MUSKIE
43,181
2 PCT.
YORTY
24,673
1 PCT.
MCCARTHY 19,923 1 PCT.
JACKSON
16,889
1 PCT.
LINDSAY
15,887
1 PCT.
(WINNER TAKES ALL 271 DELEGATES.)
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 56 PCI.
NIXON
1,102,038 90 PCT.
ASHBROOK
119,191 10 PCT.
UPI 06-07 06:03 AED
075A
CALIF 6-7
CORRECTION DAY LD CALIF LOS ANGELES 070A 2ND PGH BGNG: DISMISSED
AS, READ IT XXX MCGOVERN EMERGED FROM VICTORIES (INSERTING FROM)
UPI-NEW YORK
UPI 06-07 06:04 AED
090A
TABS 6-7
CALIFORNIA TABS
LOS ANGELES (UPI)-HERE ARE THE LATEST CALIFORNIA PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY VOTE TABULATIONS:
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 73 PCT.
MCGOVERN L,141,394 46 PCT.
HUMPHREY 949,275 38 PCT.
WALLACE 116,565 5 PCT.
CHISHOLMN110,182 5 PCT.
MUSKIE 54,699 2 PCT.
1
YORTY
33,356 1 PCT.
MCCARTHY 25,474 1 PCT.
JACKSON 21,036 1 PCT.
LINDSAY 29,328 1 PCT.
(WINNER TAKES ALL 271 DELEGATES.)
------
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT
PRECINCTS REPORTED: 70 PCT
ASHBROOK NIXON 151,461 10 PCT.
1,384,329 90 PCT.
UPI 06-07 07:30 AED
088A
CALIF 6-7
1ST DAY LD 070A
BY STEVE GERSTEL
LOS ANGELES (UPI)-GEORGE S. MCGOVERN TODAY BEAT HUBERT H.
HUMPHREY IN THE CRUCIAL CALIFORNIA PRIMARY--AND SWEPT PRIMARIES IN
THREE OTHER STATES--TO MOVE FAR OUT IN FRONT AS THE CANDIDATE TO BEAT
FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION.
BUT MCGOVERN'S MARGIN OF VICTORY IN CALIFORNIA, LESS THAN HALF THE
20 PER CENT PROJECTED BY POLLS, MAY NOT HAVE BEEN BIG ENOUGH TO
LAUNCH A BANDWAGON BEFORE THE NATIONAL CONVENTION.
MCGOVERN'S TOTAL OF DELEGATE VOTES CLIMBED TO 926.75, WITH 271
FROM CALIFORNIA; AT LEAST 59 AND POSSIBLY MORE FROM NEW JERSEY; 17
FROM HIS HOME STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA, AND 10 FROM NEW MEXICO.
MCGOVERN SAID THE QUARTET OF VICTORIES "SET THE STAGE FOR A
VICTORY IN MIAMI BEACH" BUT HUMPHREY REFUSED TO GIVE UP.
UNDAUNTED BY HIS LOSS IN CALIFORNIA, BEING SHUT OUT IN NEW MEXICO,
AND PICKING UP ONLY 4 DELEGATES (HE IS ALSO COUNTING ON 17
UNCOMMITTED) IN NEW JERSEY, HUMPHREY SAID, "I AM NOT DISHEARTENED, I
AM NOT DISCOURAGED, I AM GOING TO MIAMI AND WE ARE GOING TO GET THIS
NOMINATION."
BUT AT 61, HUMPHREY'S 12-YEAR QUEST FOR THE WHITE HOUSE MAY HAVE
ENDED. ALTHOUGH HE NOW STANDS SECOND IN DELEGATE VOTES WITH 311.35,
HE HAD BANKED HEAVILY ON PICKING UP MOMENTUM FROM A WIN IN
CALIFORNIA.
GOV. GEORGE C. WALLACE, HOSPITALIZED WITH PARTIAL PARALYSIS FROM A
WOULD-BE ASSASSIN'S BULLET AND UNAWARE OF THE RESULTS, PULLED A
STARTLING UPSET IN NEW MEXICO AND WAS RUNNING THIRD IN CALIFORNIA
WITH A WRITE-IN EFFORT.
ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO CAMPAIGN, WALLACE RAN A CLOSE SECOND TO
MCGOVERN IN NEW MEXICO, PUSHED HUMPHREY INTO THIRD AND PICKED UP
EIGHT UNEXPECTED DELEGATES.
PRESIDENT NIXON CLINCHED A FIRST BALLOT NOMINATION BY WINNING ALL
FOUR PRIMARIES TO CONTINUE HIS UNDEFEATED SKEIN. HE ADDED 163
DELEGATE VOTES TO GIVE HIM A TOTAL OF 818. IT TAKES 674 FOR THE
NOMINATION.
A GLANCE AT THE FOUR RACES:
CALIFORNIA--MCGOVERN WON BY CARRYING ALL BUT EIGHT OF THE STATE'S
58 COUNTIES, BUT HUMPHREY POLLED BIG MAJORITIES IN TWO OF THE STATE'S
MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES, LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE. NONSTOP CAMPAIGNING
BY HUMPHREY--AND POSSIBLY THE THREE DEBATES--CREATED A LAST-WEEK
SURGE FOR HUMPHREY.
NEW JERSEY--MCGOVERN EDGED HUMPHREY FOR THE SEVEN AT-LARGE
DELEGATES IN THE ONLY STATEWIDE RACE BUT CASHED IN ON ORGANIZATION TO
SCORE HEAVILY IN CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. HE PICKED UP 59 DELEGATES
AND HIS MANAGERS CLAIMED THE TOTAL WOULD GO TO 80.
NEW MEXICO--MCGOVERN, WITH 96 PER CENT OF THE PRECINCTS REPORTED,
EDGED WALLACE 33 PER CENT TO 29 PER CENT. MCGOVERN TOOK 10 DELEGATES
AND WALLACE 8.
SOUTH DAKOTA--MCGOVERN WAS NOT CHALLENGED.
IN CALIFORNIA, WITH 64 PER CENT OF THE PRECINCTS REPORTING,
MCGOVERN HAD 46 PER CENT; HUMPHREY, 38 PER CENT; YORTY, 1 PER CENT;
MUSKIE 2 PER CENT' JACKSON 1 PER CENT; CHISHOLM, 5 PER CENT; LINDSAY
1 PER CENT: MCCARTHY 1 PER CENT; AND WALLACE 5 PER CENT.
PICKUP 10TH PGH 070A: MCGOVERN, CELEBRATING
UPI 06-07 07:22 AED
TO BE DEXED TO CAMP DAVID:
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
The outcome as of 9:00 a. m. this morning in California with 78% of
the vote in with McGovern at 45% and Humphrey at 38% is even
better from our standpoint than the early vote totals we discussed
last evening. McGovern winning is good for us, but he made no
where near the showing that was expected. This should cut his
momentum considerably. In fact, it is the best of all outcomes
because he will not create from this the invincible image that he
was gaining in recent days in the media.
Your showing in California, I think,is extremely good and better
than I personally had expected it to be also better than most of
the commentators expected it to be.
The New Mexico results will further retard the momentum of
McGovern. No candidates visited the state except for McGovern
who went there once and yet he bearly squeaks out a win over
Wallace.
In New Jersey, which was strictly a delegate fight, he did as he
has done in all delegate fights this year, had the superior organi-
zation to win and he got just about the predicted total (actually
slightly less according to the 9:00 a.m. figures 70 delegates).
In conclusion, it was in my opinion, at least, a good day for us.
O' Neil - 739 mtg:
Dent
Beasley after P left for CD +
rese ct w/ P at later date.
- comments on haird's testim -just
passing inference
- Dein final vote at 4p +
shults at 5p
-offer of 40% matching
at Enerien in storoc
- Pube Bldg - unconst pur
passed Hee
L,
MCG Dels
wash Post P A-6
cal nm SO nJ
MeG
5504+271+0+17+80
wal
3
323
ITH
2961/2
mus
162
Jac
38
sand
27
chis
15
Fauntry 0 their
15
14
Unurn 445'2
Best guess 1300; CBS C 1266
3
UNDATED--PRIMARIES ROUNDUP (2)
HE CAPTURED A SOLID MAJORITY OF THE 109 NEW JERSEY DELEGATES,
SWEPT THE 17 OF HIS NATIVE SOUTH DAKOTA WITHOUT OPPOSITION AND
EDGED WALLACE IN A TIGHT NEW MEXICO RACE THAT GAVE MCGOVERN 10
DELEGATES AND WALLACE EIGHT.
CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER, WAS THE BIG PRIZE. BOTH MCGOVERN AND
HUMPHREY HAD PREDICTED THE WINNER WOULD CAPTURE THE PRESIDENTIAL
NOMINATION THOUGH HUMPHREY MODIFIED THAT IN RECENT DAYS AS POLLS
SHOWED HIM FAR BEHIND IN THE STATE.
THE CALIFORNIA VOTE COUNT WAS DELAYED WHEN A FEDERAL JUDGE IN
SAN FRANCISCO ORDERED POLLS KEPT OPEN AN EXTRA THREE HOURS TO
HANDLE DELAYS CAUSED BY AN UNUSUALLY LONG LOCAL BALLOT. SECRETARY
OF STATE EDMUND G. BROWN JR. THEN ORDERED THE STATEWIDE TALLY
HELD UP UNTIL SAN FRANCISCO POLLS CLOSED.
A FEW VOTES WERE COUNTED BEFORE BROWN'S ORDER WAS RECEIVED,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WHERE MCGOVERN WAS RUNNING WELL, AND THEN
THE TALLY STOOD STILL FOR MORE THAN TWO HOURS, UNTIL AFTER 2 A.M.
EDT.
AS THE TALLY STARTED TO MOUNT, MCGOVERN TOLD REPORTERS, "I
REALIZE THERE'S NOTHING CERTAIN IN POLITICS, BUT I THINK THESE
FOUR VICTORIES PROBABLY SET THE STAGE FOR MY VICTORY IN MIAMI
BEACH."
HE SAID HE PLANNED TO TALK WITH HUMPHREY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ADDING, "HE AND I KNOW HOW TO TALK TO EACH OTHER ON A MAN-TO-MAN
BASIS. WE HAVE A HIGH REGARD FOR EACH OTHER AND I THINK SOMETHING
CAN BE WORKED OUT."
JC840AED JUNE 7
(2)
with Supponing AI IM. HOLLY-002
The IF TOTAL'S AnD SAID, "1 18195 NLL 01 as
STIPHING ACROSS The CODATRY.
4.01 Dd. DATE 17256 SPIRIT AND 5AM VISIOL 07 +1
Li. TO 114 STATE CONVENTIVE Alle 10 is
TO claim WHILE CALL'
The
VLLL NAO TREDICIVE, SAIL, "1"" EXCUURAGE.,
STAY STOP 11, 60 is TIAMI AND JJ
"Lil's FOR PAINTS It PEDITECTIVE-1 wells
1. DU AWI Ai will As WL' LIVED : IN
on 10 THIS BALL Frish AND WE'LL CARRY
sting IV NEFT TODAY WITH DEFUCRATION
*11n NOLUMERN LAD MIGHT.
cesh 10 4 y-1 VICTORY OVER A15 CORPERVATIVE
I
ACARROCK OF OHIO, D ThE RACE FOR GREEN
REPUBLICAL NATIONAL CONVENTION.
150, LOST ONE OF ThE 14 GOP DELEGATES, 10 REF.
CLOSKE: JR. 01 CALIFORNIA, WHO LONG AGO
1.00
1. RESIDENTIAL RACE AND APPLARED TO nk WINNING A
STATE FOR REMOXINATION TO THE HOUSE.
003 All APILL TUELDAY WERE THE LAST OF THE LONG FRIMARY SENDOR
INL 1025 PRIMARY IVJ WEEKS FROM NOW.
CR941NED JUNE 7
..... ALL
and 1.1 of SAPOR RAS AN ACTUALITY OF EXCERPTS FROM A TALK
then 100AY e) SEC. JAMES HODESON IN DENVER To THE
ASSOCIATION. CALL 961-2061.
5R942A2D JUN 7
--- (12)
01 TUESDAY, ThE BIGGEST SURFAISE Mer
190ml ORIGE 1% REV EXICO. GATHERINC BIRENGIN IN
4 $110.00 COVERE TO THE WIRE AND WOR ALMOST HALF Ci
the A10: UNDER ACLES THAT CALLED FOR PROPORTIONAL
) in 1: LEIWEEN THE inj TOP FINISHERE,
01 Lnf. VOIDO COURTEE, XCCOVERN HAD 00 FLR CENT
S.M. HUMBREY, WITH 25 TER CENT,
DESPITE THE BACKING Or L.V. RUCL MICO
CLI
AWD JUDEPH % DONTOYA.
will Who COLVERS 47, Joo, WALLACE 42,617 AND AUTHORITY 37,307.
BILLI THE 31. AINING VOTE.
has 1.2 02 THE 129 EFLEGATES WERE Unbben 1:
=1 THE RECULITY CLOUDED VI a will Culta]
FOR
STATEM CALDIDATE MAC WOR 6. PACES
HEADWCARTERS COLUMNT
The BLEGATIO
D,Lecares, VOTER Child WILL
UPI-27
(N.J.)
TRENTON--GEORGE MCGO VE RN TUESDAY WON THE MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY'S
109 DELEGATES TO THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION FROM SEN. HUBERT
HUMPHREY, WHO WAS BACKED BY SCANDAL-ROCKED PARTY REGULARS.
INCOMPLETE RETURNS GAVE MCGO VERN 61 DELEGATES, AND ALL BUT ASSURED
HIM AN ADDITIONAL 7 STATEWIDE AT-LARGE DELEGATES. HUMPHREY WON 11
DELEGATES, WITH ANOTHER 17 UNCOMMITTED BUT LEANING TOWARD HIM.
DANIEL HORGAN, DIRECTOR OF THE MCGO VERN FORCES IN THE STATE,
PREDICTED THAT MCGO VERN WILL HAVE ABOUT 80 DELEGATES FROM THE EIGHTH
LARGEST BLOCK AT THE CONVENTION.
REP. CORNELIUS GALLAGHER, INDICTED ON TAX EVASION AND PERJURY
CHARGES, WAS BEATEN BY A 4-1 MARGIN BY REP. DOMINICK DANIELS IN THEIR
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY. THEIR DISTRICTS WERE MERGED INTO ONE BY
REDISTRICTING.
IN THE SENATORIAL RACE, FORMER REP. PAUL KREBS EASILY DEFEATED
THREE OTHERS FOR THE DEMOCRATIC RACE. HE WILL RUN AGAINST SEN.
CLIFFORD CASE, WHO HANDILY BEAT A VIETNAM WAR HERO OPPOSING CASE'S
ANTIWAR STANCE.
6/7--GE959A
UPI-28
(N.M.)
ALBUQUERQUE--GEORGE MCGO VERN LED THE POPULAR VOTE IN NEW
MEXICO'S FIRST PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY TUESDAY, BUT A SURPRISING TURNOUT
FOR GEORGE WALLACE GOT HIM UNEXPECTED DELEGATE STRENGTH.
MCGOVERN GOT 10 DELEGATES AND WALLACE 8. HUBERT HUMPHREY CAME IN
THIRD IN THE SIX-MAN FIELD AND GOT NO DELEGATES.
PRESIDENT NIXON EASILY WON 13 REPUBLICAN DELEGATES WITH 89 PER
CENT OF THE VOTE. BUT REP. PAUL MCCLO SKEY OF CALIFORNIA, WHO DROPPED
OUT OF THE RACE IN MARCH, WON ONE DELGATE TO THE GOP NATIONAL
CONVENTION -- HIS FIRST OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.
WITH 96 PER CENT OF THE VOTE COUNTED, MCGO VERN HAD 33 PER CENT,
WALLACE 29 PER CENT AND HUMPHREY 26 PER CENT. EDMUND MUSKIE POLLED
5 PER CENT, HENRY JACKSON 3 PER CENT AND SHIRLEY CHISHOLM 2 PER
CENT.
5/7--GE1002A
Committee
65- # seen has
for the Re-election
of the President
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920
May 26, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
California Primary
A telephone poll was conducted with 450 Democrats in Los Angeles and
Orange County from May 12-26, 1972 with the following results:
McGovern
34%
Humphrey
24
Muskie
9
Jackson
4
Yorty
3
Chisholm
1
Undecided
25
Another poll conducted in Los Angeles and Orange County from April 14-May 26,
1972 of 700 Republicans produced the following results:
Nixon
75%
Ashbrook
8
Undecided
17
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE N.W
May 18, 1972
WASHINGTON D C 20016
(202 333 0920
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Minnesota Poll
Attached are some results from the last statewide poll
the Republican party had done in Minnesota. Dave
Krogseng gave them to me.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
Minnesota Statewide
Mid March
800 Interviews
Trial Heats
Nixon
39%
Muskie
42
Undecided
19
Nixon
38%
Humphrey
45
Undecided
17
Nixon Approval
54%
Nixon Disapproval
39
No Opinion
7
It is his opinion that we have no chance in Minnesota against
Humphrey, but against McGovern it would be possible to carry
the state if the President was running reasonably strong
nationally. He points out that the DFL has a severe internal
split exemplified by the fact that Hubert Humphrey only got
51% of the delegates.
While this is a fairly optimistic picture for Minnesota, I
doubt that we have much chance to carry Minnesota and would
not recommend moving it on our list of priority states.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
May 12, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
HERBERT L. PORTER
SUBJECT:
California Event
It appears that the previously proposed country and western
event for Bakersfield is not feasible, according to Jon
Foust. We therefore propose another event, this one in
Orange County, California.
On Sunday afternoon, June 4, 1972 the Orange County GOP
Central Committee is sponsoring "Team '72" at the Anaheim
Convention Hall. They have sold 1,500 tickets, and each
adult is asked to bring "a youth". Several sports figures
will be on hand to encourage younger people to take an
active part in the Republican Party.
Vic Andrews, the Orange County Nixon Chairman, has been
in contact with Tom Rogers, the Orange County GOP Chairman
regarding the possibility of "co-sponsoring" this event.
We would arrange to have Secretary Volpe appear at "Team
72" as the principal speaker, decorate the Hall with
Nixon posters, and help sell additional tickets. The
tickets defray the costs of the Hall, hot dogs, beer, etc.--
this is not a fundraiser.
Bob Mardian, Lyn Nofziger and Jeb Magruder agree that
this is a good event. Our tour office would have respon-
sibility for Secretary Volpe's appearance, arrange a
press conference at the site, and ensuring that the two
committees work together.
With your approval, we will proceed with the planning
necessary for this event in Anaheim, California on June 4.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
COMMENT
X
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
5/11
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
This will be sent to John
Mitchell for decision.
of
it.
+
Leya
&
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
May 18, 1972
1701 PENNGYIVANIA AVENUE NW
WASHINGTON. D C 20006
(2021 333 0920
CONFIDENTIAL -EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Vietnam Poll
Attached are the results of a survey I did for a private
client on Vietnam. I will be going over it with him this
weekend. He may be willing to fund some similar studies
of this nature if we felt it would be helpful.
I have promised this individual that we would not use this data
other than for our own internal use without clearing it with
him first.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
National
May 12-14, 1972
1,019 Interviews
VIETNAM
SURVEY
Registered voters:
80%
Will register:
12
Will not register:
8
Most important problem facing the
country:
Vietnam/War
70%
Inflation/Cost of Living/
Economy
21
Unemployment/jobs
8
Taxes
6
Crime
7
Racial problems
6
Drugs
6
Pollution/ecology/environment
7
General unrest/protests/
demonstrations
7
All others
23
Not reported
4
Feel things in country generally going in the right
direction today or feel pretty seriously gotten off
on wrong track:
Right direction
32%
Wrong track
55
No opinion
13
Approve/Disapprove way Nixon handling job as President:
Approve
60%
Disapprove
29
No opinion
11
Why? (Approve):
War/Vietnam
41%
Something else
62
No opinion
2
Why? (Disapprove) :
War/Victnam
48%
Something else
59
No opinion
0
Vietnam continued
National
May 12-14, 1972
1,019 Interviews
Approve/Disapprove way the President is handling the
Vietnam situation:
Approve
55%
Disapprove
34
No opinion
11
See or listen to the President's speech on Vietnam situation
last Monday night:
Yes
58%
No
41
Undecided
1
Personally support or oppose President's decision to mine
Haiphone and other North Vietnamese harbors?
Support
57%
Oppose
23
No opinion
20
Think that the President's offer withdraw all American troops
from Vietnam within four months of an internationally supervised
cease fire and after all U.S. prisoners of war are released is
fair and reasonable or should we make further offer:
Fair and reasonable
77%
Further offer made
10
No opinion
13
Several courses of action our government might follow in
dealing with problem -- which one most favor:
Withdraw all troops regardless of N. Vietnamese actions
10%
Withdraw all troops only after our prisoners of war
have been released
52
Continue as we are now
5
Use whatever air and naval power needed to stop the North
Vietnamese offensive
12
Use whatever air and naval power is necessary including more
U.S. troops to stop offensive
14
No opinion
8
Vietnam continued
National
May 12-14, 1972
1,019 Interviews
Mining of the North Vietnamese harbors and bombing
will speed up end of war, delay end of war or not make
any difference:
Speed up end of war
25%
Delay end of war
16
Not make any difference
24
No opinion
15
Upset you or doesn't matter if, Russians cancelled summit
meeting:
Upset
41%
No difference
47
No opinion
12
Personally think war will or will not be over six months
from now:
Will
19%
Will not be over
68
No opinion
13
Approve/Disapprove of statements and responses about Vietnam
made by Democratic candidates for Presidency:
Approve
20%
Disapprove
44
No opinion
36
Under current circumstances in Vietnam - all public officials
should or should not support the President:
Should
74%
Should not
17
No opinion
9
Agree/Disagree with people who have publicly demonstrated
opposition to President's decision to mine harbors?
Agree
22%
Disagree
69
No opinion
9
Those demonstrating against the President's actions in Vietnam
should/should not be allowed to continue:
Should
42%
Should not
49
&
No opinion
9
Vietnam continued:
National
May 12-14, 1972
1,019 Interviews
Trial Heats:
Nixon
44%
Humphrey
28
Wallace
13
Undecided
15
Nixon
41%
Kennedy
34
Wallace
12
Undecided
13
Nixon
42%
McGovern
28
Wallace
15
Undecided
15
Past Voting:
Straight Democratic
19%
Mostly Democratic
13
A few more Democrats than
Republicans
4
About equally for both
parties
21
A few more Republicans than
Democrats
4
Mostly Republican
11
Straight Republican
6
Don't know
22
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
F
28 W. ADAMS, DETROIT, MICHIGAN 48226 ! (313) 963-2414
Market Opinion Research Primary Day poll for Detroit News May 16, 1972
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In deciding who to vote for, which single issue was most important to you?
All Democratic
All Republican
Primary voters
Primary voters
Vietnam
28%
39
Busing of school
children
19
6
General unrest in the
country
10
11
Taxes
6
5
Crime
6
2
Inflation
6
9
Protest against things
as they are
5
2
Unemployment
3
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In deciding who to vote for, which single issue was most important to you?
Nixon Voters
Vietnam
39 %
General unrest in
the country
11
Inflation
9
Busing
7
Taxes
6
National defense
4
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In deciding who to vote for, which single issue was most important to you?
Wallace Voters
Busing
35 %
Vietnam
11
General unrest in
the country
11
Crime
10
Taxes
8
Protest against things
as they are
6
Inflation
6
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In deciding who to vote for, which single issue was most important to you?
McGovern Voters
Vietnam
55 %
General unrest in
the country
8
Protest against things
as they are
6
Busing
5
Inflation
5
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In deciding who to vote for, which single issue was most important to you?
Humphrey Voters
Vietnam
22 %
General unrest in
the country
9
Inflation
9
Taxes
9
Race problems
8
Unemployment
6
Busing
5
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Comments on importance of issues
Democratic primary
McGovern is a one issue candidate in the sense that the majority of his
supporters (55%) name Vietnam as the issue most important to them.
No other issue gets large mention by McGovern voters. Next is general
unrest in the country 8%.
Wallace is more than a one issue candidate. While busing is the prime
concern to 35% of those who voted for him, his supporters name a variety
of other issues as well: Vietnam 11%, general unrest in the country 11%,
crime 10%, taxes 8%, inflation 6% and protest against things as they are 6%.
Humphrey voters show 22% mention of Vietnam as the most important issue,
but spread their next mentions evenly over general unrest, taxes, and
inflation at about 9% mention each.
Republican primary
Nixon voters cite Vietnam as the most important issue (39%), followed by
general unrest at the 11% mention level and inflation at 9%, busing 7%,
and taxes 6%.
Issues as influencers of vote
Thus as issues, Vietnam concern draws voters toward McGovern while busing
and concern about general united work for Wallace. Sixty-nine percent
of the Execution pl: ary voters consider Vision most important
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
issue in chosing a candidate, chose McGovern. Half of the voters who
consider general unrest most important, pick Wallace and 82% of those
whose prime concern is busing pick him.
Overall, a larger percentage of Republican primary voters name Vietnam
as their number one issue than do Democratic primary voters (39% among
the Republican voters compared to 28% among the Democratic ones). It
appears, however, that those most concerned with busing voted in the
Democratic primary. The busing issue tops the list for 19% of Democratic
primary voters but for only 6% of Republican primary voters. This bears
out preelection speculation that busing concerned Republicans would cast
crossover votes.
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Who would be your second choice as a presidential candidate this year?
Nixon Voters
McGovern
33 %
Wallace
18.
Humphrey
18
Muskie
6
McCloskey
4
Other or no
second choice
21
100 %
Base
123
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Who would be your second choice as a presidential candidate this year?
Wallace
McGovern
Humphrey
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
38%
Humphrey
35%
McGovern
41%
McGovern
32
Nixon
19
Nixon
23
Humphrey
8
Muskie
15
Muskie
11
Muskie
5
Wallace
5
Wallace
9
Other or
Other or
Other or
no second
no second
no second
choice
27
choice
26
choice
26
100 %
100 %
100 %
Base
194
133
64
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In the last general election in which you voted, which answer on this card
(HAND POLITICAL CARD) best describes how you voted for state and local offices
such as Governor and Senator?
(Republican Primary Voters)
,
Nixon Voters
Core Republicans
60 %
Ticket Splitters
22
Core Democrats
2
Never voted before
16
100 %
Base
129
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
In the last general election in which you voted, which answer on this card
(HAND POLITICAL CARD) best describes how you voted for state and local offices
such as Governor and Senator?
Cross Over Effect
Total Vote
for all
Democratic
Wallace
McGovern
Humphrey
Candidates
Vote
Vote
Vote
Core
Democrats
45 %
36 %
48 %
67 %
Ticket
Splitters
25
27
20
22
Core
Republicans
13
20
11
3
Never voted
before
17
17
21
8
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
Base
444
194
133
64
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
How Primary Voters Voted By Age
Age
Other
Groups
Total
Wallace
McGovern
Humphrey
Candidates
18 24
100 %
41 %
37 %
8 %
14 %
25 29
100 %
38 %
35 %
10 %
17 %
30 39
100 %
40 %
33 %
19 %
8 %
40 49
100 %
50 %
26 %
15 %
9 %
50 59
100 %
51 %
19 %
14 %
16 %
60 and over
100 %
33 %
29 %
27 %
11%
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
City/Suburban/Outstate Split of Voters for Democratic candidates
Wallace Voters
McGovern Voters
Humphrey Voters
City of Detroit
15%
17%
19%
Suburban Detroit
45
38
23
Outstate
40
45
58
100%
100%
100%
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Democratic candidate support by sex
Wallace Voters
McGovern Voters
Humphrey Voters
Male
58%
46%
59%
Female
42
54
41
Wallace and Humphrey draw their support more from males than females.
McGovern, however, has a larger proportion of women voters.
Democratic candidate support by race
Wallace Voters
McGovern Voters
Humphrey Voters
Chisholm Voters
White
99%
96%
84%
67%
Black
0
3
16
27
Other/not
1
1
0
1
stated
MARKET OPINION RLSEARCH
The Young: (Age 18-24) Wallace Voter
34 voters out of 106
in age group = 32%
In deciding whom to vote for in this presidential primary, which single
issue was most important to you?
Busing
29%
Vietnam
26
General unrest
12
Crime
9
Inflation
6
Taxes
6
Who would be your second choice as a Presidential candidate this year?
McGovern
47%
Nixon
35
Humphrey
9
Muskie
6
What is the occupation of the head of your household (note that for this
age group head 01 household could be self, spouse, or parent)
Skilled craftsmen/foremen
26%
Operatives/kindred workers
(unskilled)
18
Officials/business owners
15
Professional/technical
12
Student
9
Clerical/sales
6
Service workers/laborers
6
Housewife
3
No answer
6
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Base:
The Young (Age 18-24) McGovern Voter
31 voters out of 106
in age group = 29%
In deciding whom to vote for in this presidential primary, which single
issue was most important to you?
Vietnam
71%
Busing
7
All other issues have 3% or less mention
Who would be your second choice as a Presidential candidate this year?
Humphrey
26%
Nixon
19
Muskie
16
Wallace
13
Kennedy
13
Chisholm
6
What is the occupation of the head of your household (note that for this
age group head of household could be self, spouse, or parent)
Professional/technical
29%
Service workers/laborers
19
Skilled craftsmen/foremen
13
Clerical/sales
10
Student
10
Officials/business owners
7
Operatives/kindred
workers (unskilled)
7
Housewife
3
Unemployed
3
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Base:
The Young (Age 18-24) Nixon Voter
22 voters out of 106
in age group = 21%
In deciding whom to vote for in this presidential primary, which single
issue was most important to you?
Vietnam
59%
Drugs
9
Inflation
5
Unemployment
5
Taxes
5
Busing
5
Who would be your second choice as a Presidential
candidate this year?
McGovern
46%
Wallace
18
Muskie
9
Humphrey
9
McCloskey
9
What is the occupation of the head of your household? (notethat for this
age group head of household could be self, spouse, or parent)
Clerical/sales
23%
Officials/business
owners
18
Skilled craftsmen/
foremen
18
Professional/technical 14
Operatives/kindred
workers (unskilled)
9
Service workers/
laborers
5
Farm owners/mgrs
5
Unemployed
5
Students
5
outbor
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
May 12, 1972
10:00 a.m.
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH: JEB S. MAGRUDER AND FREDERIC V. MALEK
FROM: ROBERT C. ODLE, JR.
Since the last report was issued on Wednesday afternoon, 1701 has
undertaken the following activities with emphasis on generating
telegrams and letters to a list of nineteen Senators provided by
Bill Timmons.
Additionally, various campaign divisions have now undertaken ef-
forts to execute the approved portions of the 38-point Chapin
laundry list. What is accomplished in this area will be reported
below and also in another report next week.
1. Political. Our political coordinators concentrated on gener-
ating letters and wires to the 19 Senators through the Nixon
organizations in the states represented by those Senators.
The state Nixon operations are organized in such a way as to
be an excellent vehicle for getting to the Senators and the
results are attached at Tab A.
2. Magruder Office.
a. The Press section activated its press secretaries and
others behind the Hill operation, continued its audio/
video distributions (eight separate cuts), placed peo-
ple on talk shows, scheduled press conferences and
distributed speech inserts to surrogates. Ted Williams'
endorsement was sent in a press release to 1300 sports
editors and the Press office involved Hill sports buffs
(Representatives Ford, Mathias, and Kemp) in publicizing
the Williams statement. See Tab B for details.
b. Our advertising staff contacted over 200 leaders in the
ad business to generate wires and letters. Positive
respondents (70%) were re-called to make certain tele-
graph and letter campaigns were organized as promised.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
-2-
Ad copy and lay outs were put together in case the deci-
sion is made to place advertising. Bumperstickers (e.g.,
"Support the President for Peace") are being developed to
take the place of the standard campaign bumpersticker for
the next few weeks.
C. Betty Nolan hit 4 of the Senators with 195 letters. In
addition, early yesterday morning she had over 70 letters
sent to The New York Times protesting its May 10 edito-
rial. (All other staffers were instructed at the May 11
staff meeting to write similar letters to The Times).
d. The scheduling and tour offices concentrated on 7 of the
Senators. It is thought that in excess of 500 letters
and/or telegrams were generated by the scheduling
apparatus.
e. Our White House/Administration wives program contacted
292 more people on Wednesday bringing the total con-
tacted to 1,094. More than 60 wives participated in
Ken Rietz' vigil.
3. The Citizens/Voting Bloc Divisions concentrated their efforts
on generating telegrams and letters to key Senators; organi-
aing the vigil on the Capitol steps; and obtaining endorsements.
a. Telegrams and Letters. All of the Citizens and Voting Bloc
Directors worked on generating telegrams and letters to the
key Senators. Over 3,000 calls were made, many by the
Youth Division with a resulting flood of telegrams.
b. Capitol Hill Vigil. A coordinated effort of several Citi-
zens/Voting Bloc Divisions led by Youth and including
Women, Blacks, Spanish-Speaking, Lawyers, and Older Amer-
icans resulted in a highly visible and successful rally at
Capitol Hill yesterday noon. Over a thousand people turned
out, and television cameras were present. Full coverage on
last evening's news programs (including the networks) was
given to the demonstration, with favorable comparisons to
the Cranston demonstration which was held at 6:00 a.m.
yesterday morning. Even before the vigil occurred, it had
received a positive mention on the TODAY show which helped
to counter the effectiveness of Cranston's demonstration.
The vigil was also covered on this morning's news shows
(e.g., TODAY).
CONFIDENTIAL
CONF IDENTIAL
-3-
C. Endorsements. All Citizens/Voting Blocs continued to work
on obtaining endorsements from prominent individuals and
national and local groups. Just a few examples of the
many endorsements received:
Youth: Ten of the 13 members of the Denver City Council.
Spanish-Speaking: Five Spanish-Speaking community leaders
in each of five key States; all Cuban radio stations in
Florida; President of the Spanish-American Business Asso-
ciation of Chicago (a Puerto Rican organization).
Women: Presidents of the National Federation of Business
and Professional Women, General Federation of Women's
Clubs, and Women's National Republican Club.
Veterans: All American Legion Department Commanders have
been requested to go to the media in their state with en-
dorsements; Veterans organizations in 15 cities have pas-
sed resolutions and placed these resolutions in local media.
Lawyers: Independent Lawyers Committees in support of the
President's Vietnam Policies have been formed and have
tentative plans to place ads in The Evening Star and The
New York Times.
d. Plans. The Citizens/Voting Bloc Divisions will now place
maximum effort on staging events (vigils, rallies, etc.)
which would receive coverage on a local or regional basis.
Positive demonstrations of support are already planned at
several campuses (including USC), and we will try to
counter adverse demonstrations whenever desirable.
In addition to stimulating local efforts, the Citizens/
Voting Bloc Groups are arranging visits to Capitol Hill
offices by groups of constituents. As one approach, a
schedule of all conventions in Washington for the next
week has been obtained, and the Citizens/Voting Bloc
Directors are working with the convention directors to
organize out-of-town conventioneers to visit their
Congressmen.
CONFIDENTIAL
A
TAB A.
FLORIDA
Tommy Thomas contacted the 150 members of the Republican
State Central Committee which includes the presidents
of the YRs, the CRs, and the Women's Federation. In
addition, Thomas asked the 38 Republican State Representa-
tives and the 15 Republican State Senators to generate
pressure on Senator Lawton Childs. Incidentally, four
newspapers in Orlando, Jacksonville, Tampa and Tallahassee
endorsed the President's Indochina policy. The only
negative editorial comment came from St. Petersburg.
NORTH CAROLINA By 5 p.m. yesterday all 55 members of the Nixon Steering
Committee in North Carolina were notified. The Republican
State Central Committee contacted the Republican County
Chairmen. The President of the Women's Federation and the
YRs were asked to generate pressure on Senator Everett
Jordon.
WEST VIRGINIA
The Republican State Central Committee planned to contact
all 55 Republican County Chairmen. In addition the Women's
Federation promised to mobilize its resources in the effort
to influence Senator Jennings Randolph.
VIRGINIA
Yesterday Alan Rains, The Executive Director of the
Republican Party of Virginia, sent out a special mailing to
the 134 City and County Unit Chairmen in the state. This
list includes the 10 Congressional District Chairmen, the
President of the Virginia Federation of Republican Women
and the President of the YR Club. Gerry Bemiss contacted
several prominent supporters of Senator Spong and will
also personally call the Senator and urge his support
of the President.
ARKANSAS
Judy Petty contacted the Arkansas Federation of Republican
Women, the YR leadership, and the CRs. The Republican
State Central Committee will contact the 75 County Republican
Chairmen. Incidentally, the CRs, who in the past have been
quite critical of the Nixon Administration, unanimously
endorsed the President's most recent action in Indochina.
Western Union in Arkansas reports that this is the greatest
deluge in response to a Presidential action to date.
KENTUCKY
GOP Chairman John Kerr is contacting all District and
County Chairmen to mount a campaign against Senator Marlow
Cook's position. He will call Cook personally as well.
GEORGIA
State Chairman Shaw will duplicate telegram program to
use with Senators Gambrell and Talmadge. Nixon Chairman
Jack Ray will contact the Talmadge people he knows to
phone Talmadge personally and/or write letters.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Nixon State Chairman Henderson will mount a letter campaign
by the South Carolina Committee against Hollings. Also,
the textile people in South Carolina have been mobilized
to assist in the effort..
VERMONT
Russell Merriman the Nixon Chairman and Republican
State Committee Chairman contacted Senator Stafford's
key supporters in his home county. This group included
a former Governor. In this fashion Senator Stafford's
supporters and staffers were mobilized to convince
Senator Stafford to support the President. Incidentally,
WSSR radio talk show in St. Alban's County, a Democrat
stronghold had to keep on the air an extra 1/2 hour
to accomodate the onslaught of phone calls in support
of the President.
RHODE ISLAND
Mayor James Taft, the Nixon Chairman, notified the National
Committeewoman and the Edgewood Council of Republican
Women. In addition Tucker Wright the Republican State
Committee Chairman contacted the 39 city chairmen and
asked them to generate pressure on Senator Pastore.
Wright also planned to mobilize the Women's Federation
and the College Republicans.
MASSACHUSSETTS
We notified Paul Cronin our Nixon contact in Massachusetts.
Cronin is now candidate for Congress and therefore,
unable to devote much time to a project of this sort.
We tried to contact Bob Hahn, Republican State Committee
Chairman, but were unable to reach him as late as 8:30 p.m.
last night. Because of the sensitive nature of this project
we decided not to discuss this matter with the staff at
the Republican State Central Committee.
CONNECTICUT
We contacted Chip Andrews, the Executive Director of the
Republican Party and Charles Coe, the Executive Director
of the Nixon campaign. Both Andrews and Coe consulted
with Governor Meskill and reported that an orchestrated
campaign would backfire and Senator Weicker could
conceivably hold a press conference and denounce such
an effort. We then discussed this with Clark MacGregor
and he concurred with that judgment. No campaign took
place.
ILLINOIS
Tom Houser, incidentally Senator Percy's former campaign
manager, agreed to an all out effort. Houser has an
elaborate network at his disposal from his former
association with Senator Percy and the Nixon organization
in Illinois is well on the road. Houser's efforts
should be quite extensive.
NEVADA
Cliff Young was contacted and said he would direct
the efforts of his people against Senators Bible and
Cannon with a telephone/telegraph/letter campaign and
a letter-to-the-editor operation.
TEXAS
Fred Agnich activated the Harris County Republican
organization in a letter-writing campaign. He also
contacted influential Democratic supporters of the
President and some of Senator Bentsen's Democratic
contributors asking them to personally bring pressure
to bear.
3.
B
TAB B.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
As requested at Tuesday's staff meeting, the press section
called press secretaries in the states outlined asking them
to generate letters and wires to the designated senators
reported to be "fence sitters" on the so-called End the War
Amendment. As could be anticipated they agreed to begin the
action.
For example, the executive director of the Arkansas Republican
Party called a noon meeting of about twenty people to
start the telegram process to direct it at Senator McClellan,
who incidentally had said on state wide television Tuesday night
that he was 100 percent behind the President.
In Texas the press division reported a good response to its
request for telegrams and arranged to have its heaviest volume
come from the valley area which represents Senator Bentsen's
home base and where Bentsen would recognize some of the names
as community leaders.
In Rhode Island our press director and the Republican State
Chairman immediately activated about twenty persons to work on
this project and in Georgia our press director estimated that
several dozen telegrams had been sent by 5 p.m.
Our press director in Nevada indicated that at least 150 telegrams,
and possibly double that amount, had been sent to both senators.
The press section also picked up immediately on the Washington
Post story of Wednesday morning in which Ted Williams praised the
President's action in Vietnam. We issued a press release which
was sent to 1300 sports editors around the country and contains
comments from Congressman Ford, Congressman Mathias and others in
response to Williams. In addition, we arranged for Ford to put the
article in the Congressional Record for future mailing purposes
as required. We are also optimistic that Sports Illustrated will
mention Williams' support in its upcoming issue.
2
We also issued a press release on a group of youth leaders who
have voiced their support of the President's position. It was
sent to the usual Washington run as well as to college newspapers
around the country.
Our audio-video division cut and distributed films of Senator
Buckley backing the President. Eight separate cuts were distributed
by the audio division with good pick up from UPI Audio, the Inter-
Mountain Network and the Texas state network who in turn fed them
to local stations around the country as part of their own programs.
A newsman in Connecticut told our press relations man there that
the feeds he was getting from our operation represented the only
pro-Nixon material he had received all day.
Our people are continuing their efforts to place state leaders
on talk shows and getting favorable statements. For example, in
North Dakota a number of women were instructed to call the call-in
talk shows around the state.
We also are continuing our program for the regular surrogates,
getting them on radio and television and before press conferences.
Our material and speech inserts went to Secretaries Richardson and
Morton, Counsellor Rumsfeld and Senator Goldwater. However we
need substantially more surrogates to get this type of exposure.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW
WASHINGTON D C 20006
May 1, 1972
(202) 333.0920
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
ROBERT H. MARIK
SUBJECT:
Priority Ranking of the States for
the Campaign
This memorandum summarizes the decisions made in the strategy
meeting of April 28, regarding current priority ranking of the
states, for the purpose of developing strategy and resource
allocation for the campaign. A brief rationale is presented
with each state or grouping of states.
CATEGORY I - SAFE STATES - (Have supported the President by
large margins in the past. Should be won in 1972.)
1968 Nixon
Farm States
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Nebraska
5
+28
Kansas
7
+20
North Dakota
3
+18
Iowa
8
+12
South Dakota *
4
+11
27
*
Would not be safe if George McGovern is on the ticket.
Mountain and
1968 Nixon
Western States
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Idaho
4
+26
Wyoming
3
+20
Arizona
6
+20
Utah
4
+19
CONFIDENTIAL
- 2 -
New Mexico
4
+12
Colorado
7
+ 9
Montana
4
+ 9
Nevada *
3
+8
35
*Nixon lost Nevada by 2% in 1960. With a Democratic re-
gistration edge of 58%D-35%R-7%I, it is the least "safe"
of these states.
Border States (Recent polls suggest the President has
increased his margin from 1968, particu-
larly if George Wallace does not run.)
1968 Nixon
State
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Oklahoma
8
+16
Virginia
12
+10
Florida
17
+10
North Carolina
13
+ 8
Kentucky
9
+ 6
South Carolina
8
+ 6
Tennessee
10
+ 4
77
New England States (Will not be "safe" if Muskie or
Kennedy is on the ticket.)
1968 Nixon
State
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Vermont
3
+ 9
New Hampshire
4
+ 8
Maine *
4
-12
11
* Lost in 1968 with Muskie on the ticket; won in 1960,
against a New Englander, JFK, by 14%.
CONFIDENTIAL
- 3 -
*1968 Nixon
Midwest States
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Indiana
13
+12
Total "safe" states: 24 (163 electoral votes)
CATEGORY II - WALLACE STATES - (States won by Wallace in 1968.
The President may win some, even with Wallace in
the race; if Wallace is out, they should be rela-
tively safe.)
1968 Nixon
State
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Arkansas
6
+8 (Nixon Second)
Louisiana
10
+20 (Nixon Third)
Mississippi
7
+40 (Nixon Third)
Alabama
9
+47 (Nixon Third)
Georgia
12
+12 (Nixon Second)
44
CATEGORY III - PRIORITY STATES - (Close election expected; intensive
campaign must be run including maximum organizational
effort within the states. These will undoubtedly
be Democratic target states).
Top Priority - (Maximum allocation of resources and focus of
management attention. "Must win" states.)
Nixon Margin (%)
State
Electoral Votes
1960
1968
California
45
+0.2
+3
Illinois
26
-0.3
+3
Texas
26
-2
-1
Ohio
25
+6
+2
New Jersey
17
-1
+2
139
Second Priority - (High allocation of resources and management
attention.)
Nixon Margin (%)
State
Electoral Votes
1960
1968
New York
*
41
-6
-5
Pennsylvania *
27
-2
-4
A.
Maryland
*
10
-8
-2
CONFIDENTIAL
- 4 -
Nixon Margin (%)
State
Electoral Votes
1960
1968
Michigan *
21
-2
-7
Connecticut *
8
-8
-5
Washington
9
+3
-2
116
Third Priority - (Lower allocation of resources and management
attention.)
Nixon Margin (%)
State
Electoral Votes
1960
1968
Missouri **
12
-0.5
+1
Wisconsin **
11
+4
+4
Oregon
6
+6
+6
West Virginia *
6
-6
-9
Alaska
3
+2
+3
Delaware
3
-2
+4
41
* Although past electoral behavior would indicate an uphill
battle for the President, recent polls suggest he has a good
chance at this time to carry these states. Ultimate strategy
will depend on the Democratic nominee. These states must be
watched closely during the campaign, to be sure that they
are treated as target states only so long as they remain
winnable.
**States with the most apparent erosion since 1968.
CATEGORY IV - PROBABLE LOSS STATES
1968 Nixon
State
Electoral Votes
Margin (%)
Massachusetts
14
-30
Minnesota
10
-12
Hawaii
4
-21
Rhode Island
4
-32
District of Columbia
3
-64
35
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
May 17, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
R.M.T.
SUBJECT:
California Corey Research
Cliff Miller has obtained a copy of the Muskie research conducted
among California Democrats, and he asked that we summarize the
data for you. Several trends are important for our campaign:
1. Vietnam significantly increased in importance from our studies
conducted in January. 44% of the Democrats name it as the leading
issue compared to 35% in January. Vietnam will undoubtedly increase
in importance following the President's recent actions.
2. The President receives his highest ratings on:
Percentage Rating
President's
Handling Good
National Defense
18%
Women's Rights
17
Vietnam
15
Law and Order
15
Drugs
14
Arms Control
12
Bussing
12
Arab-Israeli Conflict
11
Education
11
The President does better on handling drugs than has been indicated
in our other studies. On handling of women's rights, arms control,
and the Arab-Israeli conflict, the President rates comparatively well.
-2-
The issues where the President receives his poorest ratings are:
Percentage Rating
President's
Handling Poor
Inflation
62%
Taxes
60
Unemployment
58
Price Controls
58
Wage Controls
52
Reducing Tension
52
Aerospace Employment
51
Welfare
51
Making Government Responsive
50
This study shows a significant change in the inflation rating from
favorable in January to the current unfavorable April position.
3. The Democratic primary shows an even race between McGovern and
Humphrey at 31% each with Wallace and Muskie trailing at 10%.
4. Humphrey is generally perceived as better able to handle more
issues than McGovern. Humphrey does better on economic issues while
McGovern is rated highest on Vietnam.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: April 4 1972
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
In the most recent Political
Matters Memorandum you asked
for a sample copy of Peter
Dailey's analysis of the Dem-
ocratic contenders.
&
NOVEMBER
GROUP
INC.
March 31, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
PETER H. DAILEY
Attached is the "Competitive Analysis Report," number 5,
covering the period from March 25, 1972 through March 31, 1972.
909 THIRD AVENUE
NEW YORK. N.Y. 10022
(212) 752-3500
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - REPORT # 5
Table of Contents
Page
SUMMARY
1
NEWS ITEMS
2
POLLS AND SURVEYS
5
CANDIDATES
Muskie
9
Humphrey
13
McGovern
17
Wallace
21
Lindsay
25
Jackson
28
Kennedy
33
Ashbrook
34
ATTACHMENTS
(i)
Section I.
SUMMARY
MUSKIE
The "new" aggressive Muskie has been much in evidence in
Wisconsin - cutting up Nixon, Humphrey, McGovern, Wallace,
et al. His campaign strength there seems to have taken a
sharp downward trend in the last week or so and it doesn't
look as though he will be able to stage a comeback fast
enough or strong enough to win the primary.
HUMPHREY
All smiles and handshakes, HHH is not saying anything
really unkind about anybody. He apparently has, at long
last, discovered his position on busing. His strong la-
bor support and great appeal among the blue-collar work-
ers and the blacks may help put him over the top in Wis-
consin next Tuesday.
MCGOVERN
Hitting the issues, and candidates, hard and speaking out
on inflation, the war in Vietnam, unemployment, agricult-
ure, and tax reform. His campaign has shown a new spurge
of strength in the last two weeks - a spurge that coin-
cides with Muskie's decline and HHH's upswing. McGovern
may make a stronger showing here than anticipated.
WALLACE
Not campaigning very hard but still throwing dandy ral-
lies - and still drawing the biggest crowds. May be
he'll come in second on Tuesday if the vote splits widely.
LINDSAY
About had it. His last-ditch effort to win cross-over
Republican votes is almost pathetic. He hopes for third
and 17% of the vote, he'll be lucky to get fifth and 10%.
JACKSON
Also hitting the issues hard and strongly critical of
Nixon Administration, but not drawing the crowds. Still
has a recognition problem and will probably place fifth
ahead of Lindsay.
KENNEDY
Proposing programs right and left, but still waiting out
the bloodbath.
ASHBROOK
Goofed in Indiana and is not on the ballot there. Has
said he would drop out if Nixon would only fire Kissinger
and a few other White House aides.
-1-
Report #5
Section II.
NEWS ITEMS
Delegates Won to Date
Muskie
97.5
(NYT 3/28)
Wallace
75
McGovern
39.5
Humphrey
7
Lindsay
6
Chisholm
7
Mills
1
uncommitted
123
Muskie picked up 14 additional delegate
votes from Iowa and one additional vote
from the 13th Congressional district in
Illinois. This changes the Illinois
count to 60 delegates pledged to Muskie
and only 13 pledged to McGovern. McGover
picked up 12 votes in Iowa; 8 more are
uncommitted there.
Hartke Withdraws
(NYR 3/27)
Senator Hartke has withdrawn from the
race and thrown his support behind
Humphrey.
Census Predicts Voter
The Census Bureau estimated that 85
Turnout (NYT 3/28)
million Americans will vote in the
Presidential elections in November.
Chicarolm
California
McGovern, Muskie, Lindsay, Humphrey and
(NYT 3/25)
Yorty
Jackson Ct will appear in that order on
mccantly
the Democratic ballot in the California
primary, June 6. Ashbrook forces said
they would qualify him to oppose
President Nixon there on the Republican
ballot. California has a "winner-take-al
delegate rule; thus the state-wide winner
receives 271 pledged delegates to the
Democratic convention and the delegates
must support their candidate until he
releases them, or until he gets less than
15% of the vote on the convention floor.
Indiana
Only Muskie, Humphrey and Wallace will be
(Chicago Tribune 3/24)
on the Indiana ballot. Jackson failed tc
enter the contest, much to the disappoint
ment of many Democrat leaders there who
felt he had a chance to upset Muskie.
Lindsay didn't enter the Indiana primary
because he felt the mood of the state was
too conservative.
Kentucky
Kentucky became the first state to certif
(NYT 3/28)
a Presidential-Vice-Presidential ticket
when it placed the names of Governor
George Wallace and T. Coleman Andrews
Section II. con't
(a Virginia attorney) on its November
ballot as the American Party's candidates.
Although the American Party will not
hold its national convention until
August 3-4, a spokesman said the Wallace-
Andrews ticket was certificated to assure
the party a place on the Kentucky ballot.
Should Wallace decline the party's
nomination, the party could substitute
another man.
Democrat Telethon
The Democratic National Committee is
(L.A. Times 3/21)
planning a national ABC network telethon
to raise campaign funds the day before
their national convention. The telethon
will begin at 7 p.m. PDT, on July 8 and
run until 3 p.m. the next day. Broadcast
live from Los Angeles and Miami Beach,
with regional centers set up to receive
pledges, the telethon is expected to
raise contributions well in excess of
the $1 million cost of producing it.
Vietnam
"There is Still a War going on in Laos,
(Broadcasting, 3/27)
Cambodia and Vietnam, Whether You Know
It or Not, is the theme of a second
public-service advertising campaign by
a segment of the nation's advertising
community under the auspices of Clergy
and Laymen Concerned, a New York based
ecumenical peace group. The first such
campaign, "Help Unsell the War," was
announced last spring and was spearheaded
by David McCall, president of McCaffrey &
McCall, New York. More than 350 radio
and nearly 80 TV stations used the
commercials created at that time.
The new campaign is a continuation of the
"Help Unsell the War" theme and will be
conducted by a West Coast group headed
by Ralph Carson, Chairman of the Board of
Carson/Roberts division of Ogilvy & Mathe:
Louis Honig, president, Honig-Cooper &
Harrington; James C. Nelson, Jr., executi'
vice president and creative director of
Hoefer, Dieterich & Brown; and Maxwell
Arnold, president and creative director
of The Maxwell Arnold Agency. The new ad
material will be distributed in April and
May through CALC to 150 or more citizen
groups.
-3-
Section II. con't
South Carolina
The South Carolina Democratic party
(NYT 3/30)
elected 32 uncommitted delegates to
the national convention. The 32-
member delegation included 11 blacks
and seven women. According to the
state chairman, about half of the
delegates are Muskie supporters.
Agnew
Vice President Agnew said he has not
(Houston Chronicle 3/24)
made up his mind about running for re-
election but sincerely hopes the
Democrats will nominate Humphrey
for president and Muskie for vice-
president, "why break up a losing
combination?"
*****
-4-
Report #5
Section III.
POLLS AND SURVEYS
Quayle Poll for Labor
A poll conducted by Oliver Quayle,
(NYT 3/30)
March 24-26, for the Wisconsin
branch of the American Federation
of Labor and Congress of Industrial
Organizations showed:
McGovern
23%
Humphrey
18%
Muskie
13%
Wallace
12%
Jackson
11%
Lindsay
1%
Chisholm
1%
McCarthy
1%
Kennedy
1%
undecided
19%
The poll canvassed by phone 455
prospective Democrat voters.
Harris Poll: Humphrey VS. Nixon
A Harris Poll taken between 2/28
(Wash. Post 3/27)
and 3/7, of a cross section of
1,365 likely voters showed that,
in a race between Nixon, Humphrey
and Wallace:
Nixon
48%
Humphrey
35%
Wallace
12%
"not sure"
5%
The Nixon lead over HHH in March,
1972, is the widest since April,
1969.
In releasing his latest poll,
Harris also juxtaposed poll rat-
ings on the above three dating
back through 1969:
RN
HHH
GW
Not Sure
Feb. '72
47%
36%
12%
5%
Jan. '72
46%
37%
12%
5%
Nov. '71
45%
36%
12%
7%
Sept. '71
45%
36%
12%
7%
May
'71
44%
39%
10%
7%
Apr. '71
42%
41% 13%
4%
Nov. '70
46%
39%
11%
4%
Apr. '70
50%
36%
11%
3%
Nov. '69
48%
37%
12%
3%
:
-5-
Section III., cont'd.
Harris Poll: Humphrey vs. Nixon
With respect to Humphrey, the latest
(Wash. Post 3/27)
poll showed that by 70 to 12% people
thought HHH is "warm, decent, friend-
ly." By 46 to 31% they thought he
"belongs more to the past than the
future in American politics." By
53 to 11% they thought he "had
courage to say he was wrong on Viet-
nam. By 51 to 38% they think
Humphrey's "long experience in gov-
ernment qualifies him for the pre-
sidency. By 53 to 27% they feel
that HHH is "unafraid to speak his
mind on controversial subjects."
But by 53 to 38%, voters think he is
"too long-winded when he speaks.'
By 46 to 31% they believe he was
"too closely connected with President
Johnson's mistakes in Vietnam." And
by 45 to 39% they feel that HHH suf-
fers from a "not very attractive per-
sonality."
Harris Poll: Muskie VS. Nixon
The same Harris Poll, taken between
(Wash. Post 3/30)
February 28 and March 7, showed
that, in a race between Muskie,
Nixon and Wallace:
Nixon
47%
Muskie
35%
Wallace
12%
"not sure"
6%
This means that Muskie is now exact-
ly where he was last September. In
releasing the latest poll, Harris
also juxtaposed poll ratings on the
above three dating back through 1969:
RN
EM
GW
Not Sure
Feb. '72
44%
40%
11%
5%
Jan. '72
42%
42%
11%
5%
Nov. '71
43%
39%
11%
7%
Sept. '71
47%
35%
11%
78
Aug. '71
43%
41%
12%
4%
June '71
40%
42%
11%
7%
May
'71
40%
42%
11%
7%
-6-
Report #5
Section III., cont'd.
Harris Poll: Muskie VS. Nixon
RN
EM
GW
Not Sure
(Wash. Post 3/30)
Apr. '71
39%
47%
11%
3%
Feb. '71
30%
44%
12%
5%
Jan. '71
40%
43%
11%
6%
Nov. '70
40%
46%
10%
4%
Sept. '70
43%
43%
10%
4%
May
'70
42%
38%
12%
8%
Apr. '70
47%
36%
10%
7%
Feb. '70
49%
35%
11%
5%
Nov. '69
49%
35%
11%
5%
Oct. '69
51%
35%
9%
5%
May
'69
51%
35%
11%
3%
With respect to Muskie, the latest
Harris Poll also showed that last
September 39 to 20% of the people
agreed that "he is the kind of man
you can trust." Since then, the
number who express "trust" in
Muskie has risen only 1%, while the
number reaching the opposite con-
clusion has risen 7%, and fully one-
third of the voters have not res-
ponded one way or the other. 39%
agree with Muskie's criticism of the
President's Vietnam policy announce-
ments, and 40% disagree with that
criticism. In fact, when voters
were asked to say with whom they
agreed more regarding Vietnam, 45%
named President Nixon, while only
24% named Muskie.
Perhaps the most telling result of
these polls is that in no case was
a majority of the voters able to
coalesce behind any view about
Muskie, positive or negative. Des
pite the fact that he is now known
by 83% of the electorate, the num-
ber of voters who simply do not have
a firm enough view of Muskie to make
any sort of definitive judgment on a
whole series of statements about him
will vary from 25 to 40%.
-7-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section III. cont'd.
Harris Poll: Nixon
Results of the recently completed
(Chicago Daily News
Second Annual Virginia Slims Ameri-
3/24)
can Women's Opinion Poll, conducted
by Louis Harris, indicated that Mr.
Nixon comes across as "a more cool
type" and "old shoe" to a majority
of the women interviewed. The
three-month study, involving 3,000
women and a balance group of 1,000
men, also revealed that women gen-
erally find Muskie "straightforward;"
Wallace "narrowminded" and "tricky;"
Humphrey "old shoe" but "a good
family man" and "intelligent" like
Mr. Nixon.
The poll further revealed that women
rated both Edward Kennedy and John
Lindsay high in the "handsome" cate-
gory, and gave both considerable
credit for being "open-minded to new
ideas." Kennedy, however, got an
unusual 7% in the "not a good family
man" category, where most other can-
didates didn't score at all.
More than 60% of the women inter-
viewed were unable to register any
opinion about Senator McGovern.
-8-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV.
THE CANDIDATES
MUSKIE
A. ISSUES
Environment
Speaking at a meeting of the Wisconsin
(NYT 3/26)
Resources Conservation Council in Mad-
ison, Muskie sharply attacked Nixon's
environmental policies, saying that
Nixon has sacrificed environmental pro-
tection in the wake of pressure from
corporate lobbyists and that the Ad-
ministration's environmental budget
represented "a blueprint for environ-
mental neglect."
Big Business
Muskie says the Administration has a
(NYT 3/27)
"blatant bias toward big business."
Kleindienst
Will not support Kleindienst's nomin-
(Wall St.
ation because his role in the ITT af-
Journal 3/28)
fair raised too many questions in
Muskie's mind.
Campaign Donors
Released a list of 13,982 donors who
(NYT 3/28)
contributed $2,027,840 to Muskie's
campaign during the 15-month period
that ended January 31. About 69% of
his funds, or $1,406,505, came from
large contributors. His list was con-
sidered predictable, with a roster of
"establishment" Democrats, Jewish
philanthropists and wealthy liberals
in banking and manufacturing. There
was puzzlement among newsmen and others
over the Senator's previous refusal to
make the list public since there ap-
peared to be no major Republican contri-
butors on his list.
Aid to Schools
In a new proposal on Federal aid to
(NYT 3/29)
schools, Muskie outlined his plan for
the Government to give the states $7.2-
billion to help them provide every ele-
mentary and secondary school pupil (in-
cluding those in private and parochial
schools) with the same quality of in-
struction.
-9-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV.
MUSKIE
Aid to Schools cont'd.
His plan, the Quality Education
(NYT 3/29)
Guarantee program, calls for
direct grants of $100 per pupil
in basic aid and $250 additional
per pupil from a low income fam-
ily. Under the basic grants, the
states would get $100 per student
after the first year, only if they
made "substantial progress, " as
measured by the U.S. Commissioner
of Education, toward equalization
of school spending. He estimated
that the basic grants would cost
$5.2 billion the first year and
proposed that the amount automa-
tically increase as the cost of
living rises.
B. MEDIA
*Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$74,610.
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$25,799.
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$6,565.
Creative
Commercial, WITI-TV, 3/26
Adlai Stevenson, Jr. drawing a pa-
rallel between Lincoln and Muskie.
(Commercial attached).
Commercial, WITI-TV, 3/24
Birch Bayh (Sen. Ind.) saying Muskie
is the one man that can pull the Demo-
crats together and beat Nixon.
(Commercial attached).
*Media figures from November Group Staff.
-10-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV.
MUSKIE
Creative cont'd.
Commercial, WOKY, 3/23
Muskie saying that people want to
believe in the President.
(Commercial attached).
Muskie has been running 30 and 60
second spots in fringe and prime
time and trying to schedule them
during newscasts. He has bought
a one-page newspaper insert.
Comment
Muskie's media spending in Wisconsin
totals $106,974 out of total campaign
spending there of $278,730. **Con-
tributions from that state total
$272,410. His commercials, at least
in good part, are still the usual
blend of endorsements from well-known
political leaders and vague "trust me"
spots. Where is the aggressive "new"
Muskie on TV?
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Hopes for Lindsay
One of his senior aides said Muskie
Endorsement
was hopeful that Lindsay would en-
(NYT 3/26)
dorse him if and when Lindsay with-
drew from the contest.
Women's Rights
Muskie took time out to vote for the
(Chicago Sun-Times 3/23)
Equal Rights for Women Bill in the
Senate last week.
Senate Roll Calls
The Monitor reported that Senator
(Christian Science
Muskie did not vote or announce his
Monitor 3/29)
position in 1971 on 145 of the Sen-
ate's 423 roll calls.
**Wisconsin Capital Times Report.
Secretary of State's Office, preliminary estimates filed
for spending and contributions.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV.
MUSKIE
D. ANALYSIS
A strong front-runner in Wisconsin only a month ago, Muskie ap-
pears to have lost considerable ground in the last few weeks.
He just about threw in the sponge last Sunday with his state-
ment on national television that if he comes in third in Wis-
consin, it "won't be so bad. A third place for Muskie here
would not be just bad, it would be disastrous. Muskie needs
a win in Wisconsin, not only to keep him going financially, but
also to show that he can beat the competition in a crowded field.
The steep decline of Muskie, however, and the ensuing rise of
Humphrey here are indications of how the vote will go next Tues-
day. Even McGovern is closing fast in a new surge of strength.
True to his promise to present himself more clearly and aggress-
ively on the issues, Muskie has been jabbing at Humphrey, Nixon
and McGovern. He has tended to leave Wallace alone for the past
few days and has not linked Nixon and Wallace once in his speeches
since last week.
Wisconsin, then, remains a bit of an enigma as April 4 draws near.
The voters here, traditionally independent and having the privil-
ege of crossing party lines to vote for whomever they please, will
no doubt hand the candidates a few surprises next Tuesday. Best
bet is that Muskie will come in third if the Wallace vote is not
too heavy. If Wallace shows stronger than expected, and he might,
Muskie may drop to fourth place behind Humphrey, Wallace, and
McGovern.
-12-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
HUMPHREY
A. ISSUES
Law Enforcement
In a speech (3/24) before the Univer-
(NYT 3/25)
sity of California's Hastings College
of Law, Humphrey charged that the Law
Enforcement Assistance Administration
"has become one of the nation's great-
est and costliest scandals.' He as-
serted that nearly $2-billion in crime-
fighting money has been wasted by the
men who preach law and order," and con-
cluded that some 92% of the Federal
agency's funds in fiscal 1971 "have
not reached local law enforcement agen-
cies but are still tied up in state
capitols."
The Aged
Speaking at a senior citizens home in
(NYT 3/29)
Wausau, Wisc., HHH denounced as inade-
quate President Nixon's recent message
to Congress on older Americans, and
called for a 25% increase in benefits
rather than the 5% proposed by the Ad-
ministration.
B. MEDIA
*Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$38,327
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$6,946
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$700
*Figures provided by November Group Staff.
-13-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
HUMPHREY
Creative
Milwaukee, 3/24, station WITI-TV,
commercial - Humphrey the People's
Democrat: a quick listing of bills
created by the Senator (i.e., medi-
care, the Job Corps)
(Commercial attached).
HHH's radio commercials have been
using Lorne Green in a voice-over.
Humphrey is running 15-minute, 5-
minute, 1/2 hour, and 30-second
commercials. The 5-minute spots
are scheduled for the last five
minutes of the news. He has a 1/2
hour live television show in which
he answers questions telephoned in
by viewers.
(Note: he requested, but couldn't
obtain, 15 and 1/2 hours of 1/2 hour
spots in Rhinelander).
Comment
Humphrey's media expenditure in Wis-
consin totals $44,973 against total
campaign expenditures of *$105, 145
and a reported $53,000 received in
Wisconsin campaign contributions.
He continues to emphasize, in both
media advertising and in speeches,
that he is the "People's Democrat."
Humphrey is also running an expensive
computerized direct mail and telephone
campaign similar to his Florida opera-
tion.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Hartke Backing
Hartke's withdrawal from the race and
(NYT 3/27)
his endorsement of Humphrey may have
little effect on the outcome in Wis-
consin, but observers think it will
have a significant effect on the
Indiana primary (Hartke's native
state) Another Indiana Senator,
Birch Bayh, already has endorsed
Muskie.
*Wisconsin Capital Times Report, Secretary of State's office, pre-
liminary estimates filed for spending and Wisconsin contributions.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
HUMPHREY
Something for Everyone
Humphrey's strategy seems to shift
(Wall St. Journal 3/28)
with each group of listeners and
from area to area. In the heavily
Catholic Fox River Valley (Wisc.)
which was strongly pro-Kennedy in
1960, HHH repeatedly links himself
to the late President. In labor
halls, he promises more jobs. In
the dairy lands, he proposes higher
milk price supports. Before blacks,
he backs off the anti-busing stand
he took in Florida and emotionally
reminds a receptive audience of his
decades-long duty in the civil rights
cause. Everywhere, an array of big-
spending plans come tumbling forth,
yet Humphrey tells business audiences
that tax reform and bank-type financ-
ing schemes will pay for it and all
without higher taxes. Indeed, he
offers that new Federal aid will allow
reductions in local property taxes, a
particularly hot issue in Wisconsin.
To young people, he says he would set
up a Cabinet-level department of youth
affairs. He advocates the same for
the aging. HHH is, in fact, promising
something to everyone to a degree not
matched by any other candidate.
D. ANALYSIS
Humphrey's Wisconsin campaign organization, which until only about
three weeks ago was practically non-existent, has suddenly blossom-
ed into a veritable bee-hive of activity. Funds, the lack of which
have been a recent plague to most other contenders, do not seem to
present much of a problem for the Humphrey group, although he is
keeping a watchful eye on his spending. His commercials do not ap-
pear to have changed from the Florida scene and he is, to all out-
ward appearances, as ebullient as ever. Labor, in a panic to stave
off a good Wallace showing in the state, has been touting Humphrey
widely, though not officially endorsing him or any other candidate,
and is about to distribute thousands of anti-Wallace brochures.
-15-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
HUMPHREY
D. ANALYSIS cont'd.
As for Humphrey himself, he is not saying anything new. In fact,
it is difficult to weed out from his myriad conflicting state-
ments just what he is saying. His acrobatics on busing are a
splendid illustration of the political animal at play: In Flo-
rida, he emphasized that he was dead set against "forced busing
for racial balance." Then he endorsed President Nixon's busing
statement, even going so far as to claim credit for having in-
fluenced the President's policy. A couple of days later, HHH
scuttled that gambit, saying after reading the "fine print" that
the plan looked unconstitutional to him. Next day, at a Green
Bay press conference, he said he was "reserving judgment" on the
President's specific bill for a moratorium on new busing. Last
Sunday, on ABC's "Issues and Answers," he finally seemed to settle
on a position, and called Nixon's proposed moratorium, "unaccept-
able." If that isn't "waffling" on the issues, as Jackson earlier
put it, don't rightly know what is.
But, as long as dairy farmers don't hear his business speeches,
as long as blacks don't watch ABC, as long as property owners
don't realize that the money for more Federal aid has to come
from somewhere. (like tax money), and as long as labor still loves
him, Humphrey ought to win the top spot in the Tuesday contest.
It's doubtful, though, that he will win with more than 30% of
the vote.
*****
-16-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
MCGOVERN
A. ISSUES
POW'S
McGovern accused President Nixon of
(NYT 3/29)
"shabby" treatment of the families
of prisoners of war by failing to
answer letters from them if such
letters contained criticism of his
Vietnam policies. He said, "the
truth is that only by ending the
war can we get our prisoners of war
released."
Tax Reform
Revealing his plan for plugging tax
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/27)
loopholes before a crowd of 3,000
University of Wisconsin students,
McGovern said he would limit inher-
itances to $500,000, require every-
one with income of $50,000 a year
or more to pay 75% of what the Fe-
deral income tax table calls for
regardless of tax write-offs, and
would re-establish 1960 corporate
tax levels. The $28-billion thus
earned plus the $32-billion he
would save through drastic defense
spending cut-backs, would raise
$60-billion a year which, if com-
mitted to the home front, would do
more, he said, to fight inflation
than Nixon's wage-price controls.
Campaign Donors
McGovern disclosed that his campaign
(NYT 3/30)
raised more than $240,000 from 2,984.
contributors in the six weeks between
January 31 and March 11. The addi-
tional funds bring his total campaign
contributions to $1,515,801. The
latest McGovern report shows a sharp
acceleration of income and a new do-
minance of large contributions over
the $10 and $15 donations that sus-
tained his campaign in its first year.
Gifts of $1,000 and more totaled
$194,000 in his second report.
-17-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
MCGOVERN
B. MEDIA
*Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$66,137.
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$10,548.
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$9,660.
Creative
Commercial, WVTV, 3/25
McGovern saying he'd never sneak
around advocating something in
secret.
(Commercial attached).
Commercial, WISN-TV, 3/22
McGovern saying he told the Senate
"we were making a mistake in back-
ing that corrupt political regime
in Saigon" several years ago.
(Commercial attached).
Commercial, WISN-TV, 3/22
McGovern saying he's fully committed
to the farmers and that his record
shows it.
(Commercial attached).
McGovern is running 15-minute, 1/2
hour, 5-minute, 60, 30 and 10 second
spots and has bought an 8-page news-
paper insert.
A McGovern spokesman said they are try-
ing to portray, as legitimately as poss
ible, George McGovern in a situation
where he's just talking to people. He
also said no changes have been made in
the McGovern material since the earlier
primaries.
*Figures provided by November Group
staff.
-18-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
MCGOVERN
Comment
McGovern's media expenditures in
Wisconsin total $86,345, against
**total campaign expenditures there
of $243,405, with $204,000 having
been raised in Wisconsin contri-
butions.
His commercials attempt to show him
as honest and open. The commercials
also seem to be directed to special
segments of voters, like the far-
mers, the young people (i.e., anti-
Vietnam) on specific issues. Any
films showing him "just talking"
with people will probably be a good
thing since he comes across warmly
on television.
c. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Women's Rights
McGovern missed the Senate vote last
(Chicago Sun-Times 3/23)
week on the Equal Rights for Women
Bill.
Endorsement
Representative Robert W. Kastenmeier's
(NYT 3/28)
endorsement of McGovern will be a big
plus in the University of Wisconsin
district which Kastenmeier represents
and which is strongly pro-McGovern.
Predicts Win
McGovern recently predicted for the
(Wisc. Journal 3/23)
first time that he will win in Wis-
consin and added that anything but a
win would be a severe setback to his
campaign.
**Wisconsin Capital Times Report,
Secretary of State's Office,
preliminary estimates filed for
spending and contributions.
-10-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
MCGOVERN
D. ANALYSIS
McGovern has hit the issues, and the opposition, hard in Wisconsin.
He has consistently spoken on the war, inflation, unemployment,
tax reform, property taxes, farm subsidies and farm take-overs by
businesses for tax write-offs. He has opposed the Project Sanguine
in the north of Wisconsin as wasteful and disastrous to the envir-
onment. He has said time and again that busing is not the issue,
but rather quality education and has hit Nixon particularly hard on
that issue. He has not let Eugene McCarthy's backbiting bug him.
He has handled his approach to Wallace with great aplomb and pro-
bably, in so doing, wooed away a few Wallace supporters. He has
stayed with his campaign slogan that McGovern is "right from the
start." His campaign organization in Wisconsin has been labled by
outsiders as the most efficient and best run outfit the state has ever
seen. His campaign there has been tireless, he has never once lost
his temper or his cool, and he has talked with the man in the street
more frequently than anyone else (with the possible exception of
Lindsay who went so far as to spend the night with a typical blue-
collar family). In short, McGovern may have out-campaigned all the
other campaigners.
All of these things have been working in McGovern's favor. His
strength in the home-stretch has broadened considerably in the last
weeks, putting him right up there with Humphrey and Muskie. He ex-
pects to win in the state and has publicly said that less than a
win will hurt his campaign. McGovern is coming on strong now and
hopes to see the race narrowed after Tuesday to a one-to-one battle
between himself and Humphrey. It may well happen, but best bet is
that McGovern will come in second after Humphrey if Wallace doesn't
walk off with a strong vote. If Wallace supporters come out in
strength, McGovern may be edged over to third place. In any event,
it is not likely that the percentage points separating the winner
from the rest of the pack will be very great.
-20-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
A. ISSUES
Campaign Donors
Wallace disclosed (3/29) campaign
(NYT 3/30)
contributions that covered the
last three years and totaled less
than $1-million. About 30,000
persons have contributed $727,000
since March, 1969, with an addi-
tional $197,000 raised at campaign
dinners and rallies during the same
period. The amounts ranged from $1
to $10,000 (only 23 persons donated
$1,000 or more).
Tax Reform
On tax reform, Wallace says, "And I
(The Capital Times 3/24)
say to you, if you vote for George
Wallace and he wins in Wisconsin,
something will be done about tax
reform even before the election."
B. MEDIA
*Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$44,342.
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$6,811.
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$4,665.
Creative
Wallace's forces have been placing
1/2 hour commercials, and 60 and
10-second spots, using the 10-second
spots primarily to promote the 1/2
hour commercials, his speeches, and
rallies.
WITI-TV, commercial, 3/24
Taxes: A vote for Wallace will be a
message to the National Democratic
Party that we want tax exemptions
removed.
(Commercial attached)
*Figures provided by November Group Staff.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont
WALLACE
Comment
Wallace's total media spending in
Wisconsin amounts to only 342,
which is about par considering that
his more normal medium is the "rally"
and his Wisconsin rallies have been
drawing huge crowds.
C. STRATEGY AND TRENDS
Seeking "Fed-Up" Vote
Wallace is making repeated appeals to
(Wash. Post 3/24)
the Northern "working man" to show,
with votes, that he (the working man)
is as fed up as his Southern cousins
with the way things are.
Critical of Opponents
Has consistently criticized his com-
(Chicago Tribune 3/24)
petitors here for (1) jumping on the
tax reform bandwagon after he had
talked about it for years (2) making
a big mistake on the Vietnam War (3)
being out of touch with how much bus-
ing as an abstract issue affects
people's daily lives. He has further
chastized the several Senators in the
race, saying "they have been in Con-
gress 109 years total. Why didn't
they do something about tax reform
then?"
Indiana
The Indiana race is expected to become
(Chicago Tribune 3/24)
something of a stop-Wallace drive,
particularly if he makes a creditable
showing in the Wisconsin primary.
Wallace is extremely popular in Indi-
ana. In 1968, when Indiana gave
President Nixon his largest state ma-
jority, more than 13% of the state
vote went to Wallace as the candidate
of the American Independent Party. In
the 1964 Democratic primary there,
Wallace took 30% of the vote in a one-
on-one contest with former Governor
Matthew E. Welsh, a stand-in for LBJ.
Much of the fight this year will center
on Gary's Lake County, which cast 12%
of the state's Democratic vote in 1968.
Wallace took 51% of the Lake County
-22-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
Indiana cont'd.
primary vote in 1964, without even
(Chicago Tribune 3/24)
campaigning in the county. He has
a strong following among blue collar
workers in the state.
D. ANALYSIS
From all reports, Wallace appears to have approached the Wis-
consin test with caution and reserve. He apparently does not
expect to do well here, where the debate over busing is not a
hot issue. Plus, he says, he did not have the time necessary
to marshal his forces as he did in Florida and that really
Maryland and Michigan will be better states in which to test
his ability to attract Northern votes. He has not fully ex-
ploited the time available to him, however, between Florida
and Wisconsin, claiming that he doesn't need to campaign SO
hard since the Florida primary gave him a new respectability
with the national media and the party leaders that he had not
enjoyed in the past.
He has followed the same rally-route as he did in Florida, al-
though the country-western-revival style seems a bit incon-
gruous in Wisconsin. He has received excellent press coverage
here, a notable testimony to (1) his up-surge as a result of
Florida, (2) the panic his Florida showing has created among
his opponents (who mention him often in their speeches), and
(3) the fact that he remains, of all the candidates, a crowd-
pleaser, attracting 4,000 to 6,000 people at his rallies.
Although Wallace loudly proclaims he was the first to talk about
tax reform, he has offered not a single proposal along those
lines. He is, however, urging people to vote for him because HE
knows they are "fed up" with taxes. What he would do about taxes
if (God help us) he ever were elected, is anybody's guess. His
stand on the issues is emotional, firey and several other exple-
tives, but he doesn't offer any solutions. He does, however,
appeal to a lot of people who may go out on April 4th and vote
for him because he seems to understand their discontent.
-23-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
WALLACE
D. ANALYSIS cont'd.
His record as Governor of Alabama is hardly a showpiece of
statesmanship; in fact, it demonstrates most admirably just
the opposite. His entire career has been built around his
defiance of the establishment. He is, in fact, a past mas-
ter in the art and uses of defiance. He has been able to
thrust himself into national politics not by doing or pro-
posing anything concrete but by strident defiance of what
he pictures as a massive new wave of busing - exactly the
kind of defiance his constituency wishes it could voice.
Similarly, Wallace does not need to develop a tax reform
program when all he has to do is to proclaim as his own the
anger and defiance of all those who feel themselves over-
burdened by state, local and Federal taxes. He made a big
thing out of standing in a school doorway years ago in de-
fiance of the laws of the land, but it was only for show -
he removed himself from that doorway before he could be
arrested but not before he had made his point through an
act of pure defiance.
The fear that the Government has gotten out of hand is pre-
cisely the kind of fear that Wallace feeds and grows on. And
his defiance of the Government, the system, taxes, busing,
etc., is fodder to his followers.
Defiance, then, is the man. And therein lies his appeal.
*****
-24-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
LINDSAY
A. ISSUES
Unemployment
Lindsay proposed a Federal Job
(Milwaukee Journal 3/20)
Creation and Adjustment Commission
to nurture new jobs and retrain the
unemployed.
Credit on Property Taxes
Called on Congress to give "imme-
(NYT 3/25)
diate emergency" relief to property
taxpayers through an income tax
credit, effective April 15, amount-
ing to 30% of the property tax bill.
He also proposed that the 30% figure
be used for property owners whose
gross income is less than $30,000
annually. He would give a 15% break
to those with incomes of $30,000 to
$40,000, and none to those with in-
comes above $40,000.
Mass Transit Aid
Riding Milwaukee's controversial
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/22)
freeway issue, Lindsay said the na-
tion has been on a highway construc-
tion "binge" and that what we need is
more mass transit facilities. Fur-
ther, he would provide block grants
to local communities for local mass
transit projects that adopt pollution
control techniques, and provide for a
10-year national investment to stop
the decline of public transportation
in the cities. He also would provide
operating subsidies to help roll back
fares in communities where transit
costs have become unmanageable.
B. MEDIA
* Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$31,515.
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$3,460.
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$15,500.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont d.
LINDSAY
Creative
Has purchased 1/2 hour slots, 30
and 60-second spots running in day,
fringe and prime time. New Lind-
say commercials went on the air
3/29 which closed with the plea
to "Switch to John Lindsay, " in an
effort to capture Republican cross-
over votes next Tuesday.
Comment
Of Lindsay's **$84,999 total Wis-
consin spending, $50,475 has gone
to media. The Secretary of State's
office reports that he has received
$89,000 in campaign contributions
from Wisconsin supporters.
His new commercials reflect the panic
within the Lindsay camp that he is
going to come out low-man-on-the-
totem-pole next Tuesday and thus, is
now actively and openly seeking Re-
publican cross-over votes. Even his
campaign headquarters staffers are
answering the phones, "Lindsay head-
quarters. The switch is on. " (Wash.
Post 3/30).
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Paul McCloskey
Republican Paul McCloskey appeared with
(Wash. Post 3/30)
Lindsay this week in Wisconsin to help
in an appeal for Wisconsin Republicans
to cross-over in the Democratic primary.
Lindsay Image as
Lindsay has been saying, "If I get to
President
be President, I'll be back in the street
(NYT 3/29)
and neighborhoods where I began
"
He
repeatedly attempts to project the image
of a man who is strong, unafraid and who
cares about and understands the problems
of the poor and the powerless as "that
whole crowd in Washington" never could.
**Wisconsin Capital Times report,
Secretary of State's office,
preliminary estimates filed for
spending and contributions.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
LINDSAY
Would be Happy with
Lindsay aides confided they would be
Third Place
pleased with a third place finish in
(Milwaukee Journal 3/21)
Wisconsin and about 17% of the pri-
mary vote.
D. ANALYSIS
The recurring theme of Lindsay's Wisconsin campaign is that he un-
derstands the plight of the "little man." In the dairyland center,
he said it is a case of the little farmer versus the farm conglom-
erates. In the smaller cities, it is the case of the little pro-
perty owner and worker fighting to at least keep even in today's
economy. His appeals have been directed primarily to the blue-
collar workers and, more recently, to the Republican voters to
cross-over in the Democratic primary.
In spite of the polls which have consistently placed him fifth and
sometimes sixth here, and in spite of serious financial problems,
Lindsay says he intends to pursue the nomination through several
more primaries. He has more or less ignored the pleas of several
of his New York colleagues to quit the race and attend to business
at home.
Lindsay is not now and is not going to be a viable Democratic can-
didate this year. Many observers think all this hulabaloo in the
primaries has been for some reason other than seeking the Presi-
dential nomination - like maybe the vice-presidential spot or,
possibly a shot at the New York governorship. In any case, best
Lindsay can hope for Tuesday is sixth place after Jackson and the
others. He'll be fantastically lucky if he gets 10% of the vote
much less the 17% he says he'd be happy to receive.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
A. ISSUES
Price Supports: Dairy
Jackson attacked the Administration
(Milwaukee Journal 3/21)
for failure to maintain dairy price
support levels at 85% of parity for
the new marketing year and said he
wquld back legislation to provide
the support.
Vietnam
Speaking to a group of University of
Milwaukee Sentinel 3/22)
Wisconsin students, Jackson said he
favored a negotiated withdrawal from
Vietnam, but one that hinged on the
release of U.S. prisoners-of-war. He
also revealed, for the first time
during this campaign that after the
withdrawal of U.S. troops from Viet-
nam, a flareup of the war would not
prompt him to send the troops back.
Unemployment
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/22)
Jackson disclosed that his target
rate for unemployment is 3%
a
new revelation.
Environment Labs
Says Federal Government should set up
(NYT 3/29)
a network of national laboratories to
conduct research into the problems of
environment.
Property Taxes: Welfare
Says property taxes have the most
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/20)
bruising impact on middle income Am-
ericans - a theme repeatedly empha-
sized in his speeches. Says persons
on welfare would be much better off
receiving pay checks instead of wel-
fare checks and advocates massive
public works projects and expanded
day care programs - also repetitive
themes.
-28-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
A. ISSUES cont'd.
Wage & Price Control
Strongly criticized the Nixon Admin-
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/21)
istration's wage and price control
program, saying the system was un-
fair because some wage increases are
approved while others of equal merit
are denied; that the controls are
faulty because enforcement is lax
and very few cases of illegal price
violations are prosecuted.
Campaign Contributors
Still refusing to disclose his na-
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/27)
tional campaign contributors, Jackson
branded as "ridiculous" charges by
the Washington Democratic Council
(affiliated with the new Democratic
Coalition) that his campaign is heav-
ily financed by Republican business
interests. He will, as he did in
Florida, disclose all Wisconsin con-
tributors, as is required by Wiscon-
sin law.
B. MEDIA
*Expenditures
TV
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$74,461.
Radio
Wisconsin, time purchased:
$5,973.
Newspaper
Wisconsin, space purchased:
$8,040.
Jackson is planning a series of news-
paper ads signed by "Independent Re-
publicans" proclaiming their support
for him. The ads will probably ap-
pear the weekend of April 1. (Wash-
ington Post 3/29).
Figures provided by November Group Staff.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
B. MEDIA cont'd.
Creative
Jackson is getting wide use of a
30-minute TV film which can be re-
vised and edited to reflect vary-
ing local voter interests and cam-
paign developments. It is being
shown on a staggered schedule in
every TV media market around the
state.
Comment
Jackson's media effort seems geared
to (1) overcome his recognition
problem (2) WOO the potential Re-
publican cross-over votes and (3)
relay his major campaign messages
in a way that relates to local is-
sues.
Estimated media program in Wisconsin
which includes radio spots: about
$7,000 per week. His media has been
moving at a consistent pace since
February 18. (Milwaukee Sentinel
3/23). Total media expenditures:
$88,474. Total Wisconsin campaign
expenditures: $111,432. Total Wis-
consin contributions: $219,954.
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Cross-over Votes
A major portion of Jackson's Wiscon-
(Wash. Post 3/29)
sin strategy has been devoted to woo-
ing potential Republican cross-over
votes.
Issue Emphasis
Jackson has consistently hammered
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/21)
away at his major campaign themes
in Wisconsin:
- the need to maintain a strong nu-
clear capability as a deterrent
for would-be aggressors and a lever
to eventually gain worldwide disarm-
ament
- the necessity of stimulating the
economy and reducing unemployment
by initiating massive public works
programs
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
C. STRATEGY and TRENDS
Issue Emphasis cont'd.
- the need to reduce the property
(Milwaukee Sentinel 3/21)
tax burden by federalizing wel-
fare and increasing federal aid
to schools.
- busing is not the answer to quality
education (Jackson has used his
anti-busing theme repeatedly here,
despite the fact that busing is not
a major problem or issue in the
state; however, many observers feel
that his anti-busing views led to
his good showing in Florida and it
may be that what's good in one place
is just as good in another.
Equal Rights: Women
Jackson missed the Senate vote last
(Chicago Sun-Times 3/23)
week on the Equal Rights for Women
Bill.
D. ANALYSIS
Jackson seems to be something of an enigma on the issues. Here
is a man with an impressive liberal rating striking out on a
path that places him to the right of many of his Democratic op-
ponents. He disagrees with most of the other candidates on the
issues: forced school busing to achieve racial integration is
wrong; law and order is a legitimate issue and not a code word
for racism; large cuts in defense spending are folly; etc. Some
observers think that the relatively conservative image Jackson
has projected so far in Wisconsin will draw Republicans to him,
especially if they feel there is no need to protect President
Nixon in the GOP primary there.
In spite of Jackson's long and rather strong media campaign, he
still does not seem to be able to draw big or enthusiastic crowds
at personal appearances. This was also true in Florida, yet he
received 13% of the vote there. As always, his stands on the
issues are precise and clear-cut. That may have been a decided
advantage in Florida where everyone (except Wallace) appeared a
bit fuzzy on the issues.
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
JACKSON
D. ANALYSIS cont'd.
Wisconsin is a different story. The other candidates have made
notable and noticeable efforts to clarify stands, dig up new
issues, and hedge their bets on unpopular views. Thus, Jackson
may not stand out as neatly here as he previously appeared to
and this may affect his showing* at the polls. He probably will
pick up a segment of Republican cross-over votes, but surely
not enough to place him higher than fifth. Jackson, for all
his clarity and vision is simply not going to be a viable can-
didate for the Democrats come July.
*****
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
EDWARD KENNEDY
News Briefs
Voter Registration
Kennedy has proposed that the Federal
(NYT 3/25)
Government provide financial aid to
state and local governments to expand
and revamp their voter registration
programs in the wake of the Supreme
Court's decision striking down long
residency requirements for voting in
state and local elections. He offer-
ed his bill as an alternative to the
national voter registration measure
killed a couple of weeks ago in the
Senate.
Comment
More and more articles are appearing, conjecturing over Ted
Kennedy's political future vis-a-vis the White House. Will he
be drafted in July? Will he let himself be drafted then? Would
he opt for a second place on the Demo ticket? Will he stay out
this year and try for it in 1976 when it'll be a whole new ball
game?
Well, a lot will depend on the Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon
and California primaries. In spite of the enormous pressure
Kennedy must be under from some of his colleagues to jump in,
he is biding his time, waiting to see which way the wind is
going to blow. He's smart, that one - or else he's listening
to someone who is.
-33-
Competitive Analysis
Report #5
Section IV. cont'd.
ASHBROOK
Briefs
California: Ashbrook's campaign to win California's Republican
primary began last Saturday with personal appearances in Los
Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. (L.A. Times 3/25).
Indiana: Ashbrook filed on time there for the primary, but
failed to obtain the correct number of certified signatures
in two or three districts and thus will not be listed on the
primary ballot May 2. (Republican headquarters in Indiana,
3/29).
Wisconsin: Has not campaigned here and never planned to. His
efforts in the state so far have consisted largely of an ill-
fated fund solicitation based on a mailing list of long-time
Nixon supporters. (Milwaukee Sentinel 3/20).
Comment
The only noteworthy thing Ashbrook has said recently is that
he would drop his challenge to President Nixon if Nixon fired
Henry M. Kissinger and some other White House aides.
(The Providence Journal 3/25 - Rhode Island).
-34-
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
oBex
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE. NW
WASHINGTON D. C. 20006
March 24, 1972
(202) 333.0920
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE JOHN N. MITCHELL
THROUGH:
JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
ROBERT C. ODLE, JR.
Attached is our weekly report.
Attachment
bcc: Mr. H. R. Haldeman
CONFIDENTIAL
-1-
ADVERTISING
Advertising schedules for Wisconsin were terminated. This decision was
made because Ashbrook is making no major effort in the state and McClo-
sky has dropped out.
A recall test on man-in-the-street commercials is being conducted in Mil-
waukee on March 23. Five youth posters are being tested on March 25 and
26. Direct mail copy is being developed for the California and Massachu-
setts primaries and promotional materials have been provided for a youth
drive in Wisconsin.
Advertising media activities were coordinated with press media activities
to insure maximum placement of press releases. Analysis of the audience
of paid political programs from 1961 to 1970 was prepared.
Coordination of convention materials and services with Committee activi-
ties was discussed with Bill Timmons.
AGRICULTURE
Yeutter met with Secretary Butz, John Whitaker, Bryce Harlow, Fred Malek,
Des Barker, and Claude Gifford to discuss the agricultural campaign plan.
Necessary follow up revisions will be made next week, and a condensed
version of the plan will be available for selective distribution the
following week.
Yeutter delivered the major address at the annual convention of the Mid-
west Feed Manufacturers Association. The audience was about 400 representa-
tives of feed manufacturing companies from a 12 state area.
Several "Farm Families for the President" chairmen have now been selected
(in cooperation with the overall Nixon chairmen), and others are expected
to jell soon.
Gary Madson, presently serving as Legislative Assistant to Congressman
Findley of Illinois, will join us on April 1. He will be in charge of our
field operations effort. Gary not only has an excellent reputation on
Capitol Hill, but has traveled widely in the midwest and has many agricul-
tural contacts. He should be very productive in his new post.
We received a briefing from representatives of Interior and EPA on their
new predator control regulations. This has been a highly controversial
topic in the northern Great Plains and will continue to be such in the com-
ing weeks.
-2-
BLACKS
In addition to revamping the general campaign plan a statement was prepared
for inclusion in the State Chairman's manual (to acquaint them with the
Division's support structure and provide guidelines for State counterparts).
We met earlier with key Black elected and appointed officials attending the
National League of Cities Convention. In connection with the Florida Pri-
mary contact was made with Miami supporters (at the request of planners
of the Miami rally).
We conferred with Newark, New Jersey, Democrats and Independents in pre-
liminary efforts to line up support in a key state.
Financial contributions from Blacks were obtained and turned over to our
Finance Division to establish a special fund for Division activities.
We worked on strategy for, and attended, the National Black Political
Convention, Gary, Indiana, and Operation PUSH, Chicago.
In continuing contacts with agencies, a meeting was held with a SBA re-
presentative and a listing of SBA contractors secured.
BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY
We visited with the Business and Industry State Chairman and Nixon State
Chairman of South Carolina. During this discussion and a further discus-
sion with the Business and Industry State Chairman of Florida, it was
decided to split former Region 1V into two regions. Region IV will now
consist of Kentucky, North and South Carolina, and Tennessee, under the
Chairmanship of Fred Dent. Region V, under the Chairmanship of Laurence
F. Lee of Jacksonville, Florida, will now consist of Alabama, Florida,
Georgia, and Mississippi.
It was also decided in subsequent discussions with Chairman Donald
Kendall and the Regional Chairman of former Region X to split that
region into two parts. Region X now includes Arizona, Southern California
and Hawaii. Region XI now includes Northern California and Nevada. These
actions, we feel, will make more workable regions in the areas approved.
We plan to visit this week with the new Chairman of Region III, who
accepted his appointment last week.
ELDERLY
During the week we completed the package of materials for our state chair-
-3-
man with the exception of detailed computer mapping for which we are still
waiting. This will go to all Nixon State Chairmen for the use of their
Older American operatives and includes a campaign manual (Tab K of overall
plan); RNC campaign manual; computer printout of key counties (in key states);
inventory of federally supported projects and programs by state; list of WHCOA
delegates and some background statistical information on the elderly as a
group. As soon as the Presidential message is transmitted, we will also
send out a summary as well as an update of administration initiatives.
Todd continued to spend the bulk of his time on the Message and the Amend-
ments to the Older Americans Act. The Message is due Wednesday and the
OAA Amendments were sent to the Hill yesterday. HEW is apparently
having difficulty securing a sponsor for the latter and the former apparently
will not contain any new initiatives.
We have completed the identification of prospective staff members to be
added and continue to wait for budget approval. This step must be expe-
dited if we are to be expected to get the field organized.
Todd also met with Dailey, Dore, Novelli and Van Renssalear to further
develop media and PR overall plans. Dore and Novelli will develop the out-
lines. Negotiations were conducted with Morgan to establish direct mail
procedures for California.
JEWISH
Larry Goldberg attended several meetings from Thursday through Sunday of
this past week in which the preparations of the Jewish community to
organize their request to President Nixon to include the item of Soviet
Jewry on the summit agenda were discussed.
LEGAL
We conferred with Robert Chase of RNC concerning the Muskie potato-sugar
beet plant environmental legislation in the State of Maine.
We conferred with James Reinke, Vice President of Eastern Airlines, con-
cerning the "single entity" charter provisions of the Civil Aeronautics
Board regulations.
Much time was spent advising various divisions of the Committee on respec-
tive aspects of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971.
For Mr. Sloan, we reviewed the proposed contract between the Finance
Committee and TNT Communications, Inc. and revised language of certain
portions thereof.
-4-
We conferred with Mr. Sloan on the legal problems involved in reorganiza-
tion to conform to the necessary requirements of the Federal Election Cam-
paign Act upon the effective date (April 7).
Presidential filings were completed to qualify to have the President's
name placed on the ballot in the Michigan, District of Columbia, and
Indiana primaries.
PHYSICIANS
We have our Physicians' Committee firmed up in 30 states and are proceeding
to contact Nixon state chairmen to coordihate our program in the states
with theirs.
SPANISH SPEAKING
In daily meetings with Jerry Jones we reviewed the campaign plan for
resubmission this week, and gathered additional data to be included in
the plan.
PR/MEDIA
Van Shumway met with visiting journalists of the USIA Foreign Employer
Program as well as with journalism students from Syracuse University.
He was interviewed by the Los Angles Times and Newsweek and had meetings
with two other journalists. Van met with Mr. Mitchell to discuss the
latter's statement for the Senate Judiciary Committee and also to arrange
for a retraction of the picture of Mr. Mardian who was misidentified as an
ITT head with Mr. Mitchell.
We issued releases on the Maine, New Mexico and New Jersey Committee
announcements. Releases were also prepared to announce the appointment of
two finance chairmen as well as a fund-raising group for the Spanish-
speaking community. Statements were written on busing for five surrogates,
on the Florida primary victory and two stock 30-minute speeches for state
campaign people. A Q&A on busing was prepared and several state chairmen
were briefed on the President's speech. We also produced Mrs. Mitchell's
remarks in Milwaukee and arranged for Harry Dent to have three radio inter-
views in North Carolina to discuss the Administration and the campaign.
We sent news monitoring kits to the following states: Illinois, North
Carolina, California, Connecticut, Indiana and Nebraska. We also sent
"Campaign Package, 1972" to members of the Cabinet and to White House
-5-
staff members. We arranged for a press conference in Lansing, Michigan, at
the time of the President's letter filing for the Michigàn primary. We
worked with press secretaries of Senators Taft and Gurney to have edito-
rials included in the Congressional Record. Both appeared on Friday,
March 17.
SPOKESMEN RESOURCES
Sandra Cram joined the Spokesmen Resources Division as the Congressional
Scheduler. Sue Davis has come onboard as an advancewoman and has parti-
cipated in the New Hampshire and Florida Appreciation Day activities.
Ed Cowling has replaced Bruce Rogers as the manager of the Scheduling
Operation's tour desk.
Curt Herge, Bill Minshall, and Ed Cowling met with Ann Dore and Joan
Donnelly of the Press Office. Individual areas of responsibility were
discussed and defined in order that Scheduling and Press can better coor-
dinate their activities and work more effectively.
Curt Herge met with Fred Hartley of Wisconsin to discuss the scheduling of
principals in that state.
VOTERS RIGHTS (BALLOT SECURITY)
We now have a total of 19 state Voters' Rights (Ballot Security) chairmen.
Two new chairmen added this week are:
Wisconsin
William J. Haese
Vermont
Frank G. Mahady
WOMEN
Mrs. Hutar attended the Federal Women's Award Dinner which honored six
outstanding Federal career women. Many of the key women leaders from
around the country were present so the evening was most worthwhile.
A meeting was held with Fred Hartley, Wisconsin Re-election Committee.
We discussed a program to reach into the rural communities which is being
developed by a top-flight woman leader in Wisconsin. This is an idea that
can be shared with other states.
Material was prepared on volunteer activities for insertion in the State
-6-
Chairman Handbook being prepared by Harry Flemming's division. Also, we are
preparing roughs of materials for the Volunteer Handbook for use by volun-
teers at the local level.
On Friday Mrs. Hutar flew to Spartanburg, South Carolina, with Mrs. Anne
Armstrong to attend the funeral of the husband of Mrs. Connie Armitage,
NFRW President. Mrs. Armitage seemed pleased that we had made the effort
to be with her.
Mrs. Roger Milliken arranged a luncheon for Mrs. Armstrong and Hutar at
the Deering-Milliken executive offices prior to the funeral services. Mr.
Hal C. Byrd, Re-election Chairman, hosted the luncheon. Also in attendance
were the Re-election County Chairman John Baines from Spartanburg and Ray
Smith, Republican County Chairman from Greenville. Mr. Roger Milliken
stopped in briefly to speak with us but was unable to stay because
of a conflicting appointment.
Plans for the Re-election Committee efforts seem to be running smoothly.
However, currently, everyone in South Carolina is gearing up for the State
Convention on March 24-25. There are hotly contested races for state chair-
man, national committeeman and national committeewoman.
POLLING AND RESEARCH
Attached are updated charts of the preference among Democrats for the
Democratic Presidential nomination (Gallup), and the head-to-head results
of Nixon, Muskie, Wallace and McCarthy (Harris).
On the Democratic voter choice, Kennedy's name has been dropped from the list
and Humphrey has spurted ahead of Muskie. This poll was taken on March 3-5,
before the New Hampshire and Florida primary elections.
The four-man head-to-head contest shows that the President has expanded his
lead over Muskie since this time last year.
NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE-McCARTHY (HARRIS)
70
60
50
-7-
I
40
NIXON
I
MUSKIE
30
20
WALLACE
10
McCARTHY
UNDECIDED
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
1
3
5
7
9
11
1971
1972
DEMOCRATIC VOTER CHOICE OF DEMOCRATS (GALLUP)
70
60
50
40
-8-
8
-
30
KENNEDY
KENNEDY
MUSKIE
HUMPHREY
McGOVERN
MUSKIE
JACKSON
McCARTHY
20
LINDSAY
HUMPHREY
UNDECIDED
10
UNDECIDED
McGOVERN
JACKSON
McCARTHY
LINDSAY
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
1
3
5
7
9
11
1971
1972
6/14
9:40 mitchdl - 60 people
Process of organizing the comp,
by + large a pretty good joe
to get where we are now
Goal: squeeze out every
possid vote for RR on nov 7.
- Noie forget the big meals,
media, pun stiff - now
ts neits T Bolts
-Fore on me G
- Koup on Regis + Convating
- -Provide opper to deter who
terega are teriga dedreated people
in ag H who on for rede
-me G resen beel dedicated
twops squeezed out votes
Regist follere on is the creex
the programs are be organ re
the tropps concentrate onthis -
Urgent - turn from Planning to
Regis + F/U. all declerate effort toa/our
Fore
mc Gorgan- activation. note an 0071
by may he had 20- 40,000
volunteers in precents
-3 itdates, 140 Store Frats-7dayouk
me G staff - not hippies, cleave
seme pros - Convassing
-Used computer Ideas in LA
prented out Dems by St Walkers
- convassing done Ry slore Fints
rather than precent organiz
instead say 4ars fee 4yrs to
Telephone bonks supplent
get Volunteers.
duplicated convassing - not
in some office as Stere Fint.
Personalized computer letters after consesing.
Last we for Re - canvas of
not at home & underidual
Volunteers not inital to rallies
Dailey 25 men biog on MCG
ae Kaupenen - Regis first action Plan
JM- a somea time + a chilling report
40 mil umegis am- three Partyory
only 475,000 Rep regis
only 170,000 regis by Rep Party
Only 6% ever asked to comp,
390 accep - must ask.
see - action Plan approved by JM
- completed Jy 8 Voter Regis use
Stpartylut top assigned to Ril Amn Facts cents ase,