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This file contains:
To: J (?) From: (?) RE: File Trial Heat Summary. Attached: Trial Heat summary. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Evans-Novak Political Report. Special election report. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/8/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: demographic information. Demographic report and newspaper articles attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1972
Vote totals for Senator and Presidential election. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/9/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From:Robert M. Teeter. RE: voter turnout. With demographic information attached. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: President Nixon. From: Herbert G. Klein. RE: Democrats voting Republican in Texas. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
Presidential Table by UPI. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: President Nixon. From: William Timmons. RE: Congressional results. Report attached. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: President Nixon. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Gubernational Races. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: R. M. Teeter. RE: The results of the CBS election day survey by demographic groups. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Magazine article about political landslides. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Notes. Numbers written next to state names. 2pgs. Blank note paper attached. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
1972 Nixon-McGovern Trial Heats report. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
Miscellaneous State Polls. 2pm. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
Senate election report. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Senate Seats. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/30/1972
Gallup Poll trial heats. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Paid political broadcast ratings. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
1972 combined polls. Presidential popularity. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1972
Nationwide telephone poll #6. 11pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/1/1972
Nixon-McGovern Trial Heat, registered voters. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon - McGovern demographics. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. Registered voters only. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Harris Survey. Demographics. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
1972 electoral forecast. 3pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Results of the CBS election day survey by demographic groups. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Senatorial, Governor, and Presidential votes by time. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Report of previous election by state. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Senatorial table by UPI 2:02pm. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146076
label
WHSF: Contested, 40-5
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146076
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 40-5
description
This file contains:
To: J (?) From: (?) RE: File Trial Heat Summary. Attached: Trial Heat summary. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Evans-Novak Political Report. Special election report. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/8/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: demographic information. Demographic report and newspaper articles attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1972
Vote totals for Senator and Presidential election. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/9/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From:Robert M. Teeter. RE: voter turnout. With demographic information attached. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: President Nixon. From: Herbert G. Klein. RE: Democrats voting Republican in Texas. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
Presidential Table by UPI. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: President Nixon. From: William Timmons. RE: Congressional results. Report attached. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: President Nixon. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Gubernational Races. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/8/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: R. M. Teeter. RE: The results of the CBS election day survey by demographic groups. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Magazine article about political landslides. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Notes. Numbers written next to state names. 2pgs. Blank note paper attached. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
1972 Nixon-McGovern Trial Heats report. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
Miscellaneous State Polls. 2pm. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
Senate election report. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Senate Seats. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/30/1972
Gallup Poll trial heats. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Paid political broadcast ratings. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
1972 combined polls. Presidential popularity. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/2/1972
Nationwide telephone poll #6. 11pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/1/1972
Nixon-McGovern Trial Heat, registered voters. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon - McGovern demographics. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. Registered voters only. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Harris Survey. Demographics. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
1972 electoral forecast. 3pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Results of the CBS election day survey by demographic groups. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
Senatorial, Governor, and Presidential votes by time. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Report of previous election by state. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Senatorial table by UPI 2:02pm. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
40
5
>
Campaign
Report
To: J (?) From: (?) RE: File Trial Heat
Summary. Attached: Trial Heat summary.
5pgs.
40
5
11/8/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
Evans-Novak Political Report. Special
election report. 4pgs.
40
5
11/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: demographic information.
Demographic report and newspaper articles
attached. 5pgs.
40
5
11/9/1972
Campaign
Report
Vote totals for Senator and Presidential
election. 3pgs.
40
5
11/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan. From:Robert M.
Teeter. RE: voter turnout. With demographic
information attached. 3pgs.
40
5
11/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: President Nixon. From: Herbert G.
Klein. RE: Democrats voting Republican in
Texas. 1pg.
40
5
>
Campaign
Report
Presidential Table by UPI. 1pg.
40
5
11/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: President Nixon. From: William
Timmons. RE: Congressional results. Report
attached. 7pgs.
40
5
11/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: President Nixon. From: Harry S. Dent.
RE: Gubernational Races. 2pgs.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
40
5
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: R. M. Teeter.
RE: The results of the CBS election day
survey by demographic groups. 1pg.
40
5
10/16/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Magazine article about political landslides.
1pg.
40
5
Campaign
Other Document
Notes. Numbers written next to state names.
2pgs. Blank note paper attached.
40
5
11/6/1972
Campaign
Report
1972 Nixon-McGovern Trial Heats report.
4pgs.
40
5
11/6/1972
Campaign
Report
Miscellaneous State Polls. 2pm. 1pg.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Senate election report. 2pgs.
40
5
10/30/1972
Campaign
Report
Senate Seats. 1pg.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Gallup Poll trial heats. 1pg.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Paid political broadcast ratings. 2pgs.
40
5
11/2/1972
Campaign
Report
1972 combined polls. Presidential
popularity. 2pgs.
40
5
11/1/1972
Campaign
Report
Nationwide telephone poll #6. 11pgs.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Nixon-McGovern Trial Heat, registered
voters. 1pg.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Nixon - McGovern demographics. 2pgs.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. Registered
voters only. 2pgs.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Nixon-McGovern trial heat. 3pgs.
40
5
9/22/1972
Campaign
Report
Harris Survey. Demographics. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
40
5
10/25/1972
Campaign
Report
1972 electoral forecast. 3pgs
40
5
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Results of the CBS election day survey by
demographic groups. 2pgs.
40
5
>
Campaign
Report
Senatorial, Governor, and Presidential votes
by time. 4pgs.
40
5
>
Campaign
Report
Report of previous election by state. 12 pgs.
40
5
Campaign
Report
Senatorial table by UPI 2:02pm. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Page 3 of 3
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
TO: &
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
File
Compaign 26
TO G.S. -
TO become
pait of
campaign file-
Rev. 11/1 - 3 p.r
TRIAL EAT SUMMARY
1972
NATL.
ALA.
CALIF.
CONN.
ILL.
MD.
MICH.
MINN.
W2-Jun 12-26
52-32-16
63-23-14
53-37-10
54-37-10
56-35-10
52-42- 6
45-45-10
W3-Sep
5-16
62-32- 6
62-20-18
63-23-14
67-23-10
56-26-18
58-30-12
55-37- 8
*60-24-16
*54-38- 8
RW-Sep 17-
58-34- 8
*59-23-18
58-32-10
63-26-11
Oct 5
*50-36-14
*52-37-11
*60-37- 3
RW-Oct 6-17
51-38-11
62-27-11
56-31-13
57-32-11
*58-29-13
*50-37-13
*60-36- 4
**65-35
YA-Oct 15-24
54-32-14
58-28-14
52-36-12
GA-Oct 20-22
55-39- 6
60-36- 4
59-34- 7
RW-Oct 19-22
52-36-12
57-31-12
55-32-13
**61-40
DMI-Oct 19-23
51-39-10
(pers)
ORC-Oct 27-29
51-37-12
56-31-13
*Field
*Hartford
*Chicago
*Detroit
*Minn.
Times
Tribune
News
Poll
**Sun Times
Page 2
TRIAL HEAT SUMMARY
Rev. 11/1 - 3 p.m.
1972
MO.
N.J.
N.Y.
OHIO
PA.
TEX.
WISC.
W2-Jun 12-26
46-44-10
46-44- 6
49-42- 9
56-38- 6
49-42- 9
54-35-11
52-44- 5
W3-Sep
5-16
52-25-22
62-31- 8
55-33-11
60-32- 9
60-27-14
64-24-12
55-36- 9
RW-Sep 17-
62-28-10
57-33-10
63-28- 9
*63-22-16
53-36-11
Oct 5
RW-Oct 6-17
56-33-11
61-29-10
YA-Oct 15-24
51-38-11
54-27-19
58-26-16
62-21-17
ORC-Oct 17-22
58-33- 9
56-34-10
59-31-10
61-27-12
(phone)
DMI-Oct 19-22
53-36-12
58-31-12
63-23-14
(pers)
(phone)
GA-Oct 20-22
56-39- 5
61-32- 7
57-38- 5
ORC-Oct 28-29
46-38-16
*58-32-10
*65-35
*MOR
*NY Daily
News
Rev. 11/1 - 3 p.m
TRIAL
EAT SUMMARY
1972
NATL.
ALA.
CALIF.
CONN.
ILL.
MD.
MICH.
MINN.
W2-Jun 12-26
52-32-16
63-23-14
53-37-10
54-37-10
56-35-10
52-42- 6
45-45-10
W3-Sep
5-16
62-32- 6
62-20-18
63-23-14
67-23-10
56-26-18
58-30-12
55-37- 8
*60-24-16
*54-38- 8
RW-Sep 17-
58-34- 8
*59-23-18
58-32-10
63-26-11
Oct 5
*50-36-14
*52-37-11
*60-37- 3
RW-Oct 6-17
51-38-11
62-27-11
56-31-13
57-32-11
*58-29-13
*50-37-13
*60-36- 4
**65-35
YA-Oct 15-24
54-32-14
58-28-14
52-36-12
GA-Oct 20-22
55-39- 6
60-36- 4
59-34- 7
RW-Oct 19-22
52-36-12
57-31-12 55-32-13
**61-40
DMI-Oct 19-23
51-39-10
(pers)
ORC-Oct 27-29
51-37-12
56-31-13
*Field
*Hartford
*Chicago
*Detroit
Times
Tribune
*Minn.
News
Poll
**Sun Times
Page 2
TRI.
HEAT SUMMARY
Rev. 11/1 - - p.m.
1972
MO.
N.J.
N.Y.
OHIO
PA.
TEX.
WISC.
W2-Jun 12-26
46-44-10
46-44- 6
49-42- 9
56-38- 6
49-42- 9
54-35-11
52-44- 5
W3-Sep
5-16
52-25-22
62-31- 8
55-33-11
60-32- 9
60-27-14
64-24-12
55-36- 9
RW-Sep 17-
62-28-10
57-33-10
63-28- 9
*63-22-16
53-36-11
Oct 5
RW-Oct 6-17
56-33-11
61-29-10
YA-Oct 15-24
51-38-11
54-27-19
58-26-16
62-21-17
ORC-Oct 17-22
58-33- 9
56-34-10
59-31-10
61-27-12
(phone)
DMI-Oct 19-22
53-36-12
58-31-12
63-23-14
(pers)
(phone)
GA-Oct 20-22
56-39- 5
61-32- 7
57-38- 5
ORC-Oct 28-29
46-38-16
*58-32-10
*65-35
*MOR
*NY Daily
News
EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT
WHAT'S HAPPENING
WHO'S AHEAD
IN POLITICS TODAY
1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Room 1312
Washington, D.C. 20006
202-298-7850
November 8, 1972 - No. 149
TO
: Our Subscribers
SPECIAL ELECTION REPORT
FROM: Evans-Novak
The Democratic gains in the Senate and the minimal losses in the House
in this historic election dramatically illustrate the extraordinary strength
of the Democratic Party and the weaknesses of the Republicans, quite apart
from the cataclysmic Presidential candidacy of Sen. George S. McGovern. Not
incidentally, there is considerable resentment within the GOP, which may soon
bubble to the surface, over President Richard M. Nixon's failure to campaign
harder for embattled Republican Congressional candidates.
McGovern's electoral and popular vote debacle poses this challenge to
the Democratic Party. Will it repeat the same mistakes in 1976? Many liberal
Democrats seem surprisingly resistant to the obvious lessons of last night.
The first real test is scheduled for December 9th when the Democratic National
Committee will decide whether or not to retain Jean Westwood as Chairman. The
extent of the Nixon landslide insures her departure; the means and timing are
still to be determined.
President Nixon faces a more liberal House and Senate, which will send
him legislation daring him to veto it. This, an absolutely empty Treasury,
and Big Labor problems pose large troubles just over the horizon RMN will
try to soften the Administration's image, but that could collide with the
hard economic necessities.
ELECTION RECAP
Results: The 521-to-17 electoral vote (as we forecast in our last Report)
confirms what we have been saying in these pages all year: McGovern could not
win from the start and simply supplied a Nixon landslide. The journalists who
were predicting a close election as late as Labor Day were simply permitting
their affection for the man to obscure reality. Nixon's 61% was even better
than our 57% estimate, because fewer Democrats returned to the fold at the
last minute than anyone contemplated.
We and everyone else felt that a Nixon win of 60% or more would create
some surprises. It did, but not in the way we anticipated, and certainly
not in the way the GOP assumed. Big surprises: the defeats of Sens. Margaret
Chase Smith in Maine and Gordon Allott in Colorado. Lesser surprises: the
defeats of Sens. Caleb Boggs in Delaware and Jack Miller in Iowa. Incredibly,
the Republicans suffered a net loss of 2 Senate seats, leaving them on the
short end of a 57-to-43 count.
Mr. Nixon's big city strength awed even Republicans. In New York City,
for example, which he came closer to carrying than any Republican Presidential
candidate since Calvin Coolidge, we isolate the following:
1) The Puerto Ricans voted more heavily for RMN than for any GOP candidate
Copyright © 1972 by the Evans-Novak Political Report Company
Issued every other week at $60 per year
in history, and for one reason: fear of McGovern's proximity to the blacks.
(In Texas and California, Nixon ran very well with Mexican-Americans.)
2) RMN almost took Brooklyn in an unprecedented GOP outpouring, but
the local Democratic ticket down to the district level survived with no losses,
as we go to press.
3) Defections from McGovern by ethnic Catholics were awesome, but, again,
the local Party organization held.
4) RMN's 40% Jewish incursion held up and proved as definitive as the
Catholic vote.
Campaign: A quick overview reveals these points:
1) The contrast between RMN's non-campaigning and McGovern's peripatetic
continent-spanning must bring some reconsiderations about the effectiveness of
campaign travel. Although a non-incumbent cannot sit still nearly as much as
an incumbent President, future candidates may decide that McGovern's frenetic
activities were not the solution either.
2) There is little doubt that McGovern's campaigning accomplished almost
nothing. People had their minds made up by mid-summer, and turned everything
else -- Watergate, peace, the economy -- off. This, too, should be considered
by candidates in the future instead of talking about "peaking," campaign
"climaxes," etc.
3)° We find nothing but complaints from Democratic politicians about the
tone of McGovern's final strident days, particularly in contrast to Nixon's
studied calm. It probably didn't affect much of anything, but everyone feels
it was a bad precedent.
Conclusions: We find McGovernites and their fellow travelers in the Demo-
cratic Party bending over backwards to show that it was not their ideology that
lost but: 1) RMN's incumbency; 2) McGovern's ineptitude; and 3) The Thomas
Eagleton Affair. We feel this is nonsense and that, instead, these conclusions
can be drawn:
1) John Mitchell's grand design of welding the Nixon and George Wallace
votes, North and South, into a grand majority was achieved. The Wallace
voter was repelled by McGovern from the start. It will be a large problem for
future Democratic candidates to win him back.
2) The increasing GOP domination of the South cannot be sloughed off.
Besides Nixon's unprecedented (for a Republican) sweep of the 11 Confederate
states, the GOP picked up additional Congressional seats in Florida, Louisiana,
Mississippi, South Carolina, Virginia and Texas (while losing one in Georgia)
and additional Senate seats (with nondescript candidates) in North Carolina
and Virginia. Additionally, the GOP recorded a smashing upset Gubernatorial
victory in North Carolina.
3) The big city Democratic vote is definitely not in the bag for the
Presidential nominee. It deserted Adlai Stevenson in the 1950s, and again
twenty years later. It could defect in '76, unless errors are avoided.
4) The Youth Vote belongs to nobody. Anybody who again bases an entire
campaign on it may well suffer a fate similar to McGovern's.
DEMOCRATS
Party Control: Even before the election, a great many Democratic pol-
iticians were spending most of their time working on the DNC Chairman suc-
cession -- not all that important but very significant symbolically. The
lineup for the December 9th meeting breaks down into -- at least -- three
camps:
1) Those who want to retain Westwood. She is not quitting. In fact,
she has been spending most of her time during the last weeks of the campaign
trying to round up support. She argues that "impeaching" her hurts the Party's
image and will also offend blacks by necessarily dumping New York black
politician Basil Paterson as deputy chairman. She is digging in by naming
New York politician Jack English as DNC general counsel. The purpose of all
this is to maintain McGovernism-without-McGovern, to show that the reforms
that nominated McGovern are not dead. (In this connection, Rick Stearns,
the bright, young McGovernite, who is anathema to Jewish voters because of
past anti-Zionist stands, has been quietly named as chairman of the Party's
new Charter Commission.)
2) The Party's Old Guard of Governors, Humphreyites, labor leaders. They
want Robert Strauss, former Party Treasurer, who did a brilliant job raising
money for Congressional candidates this fall. He has welded a close new
relationship with powerful California money-raiser Gene Wyman and has ties with
state chairmen. But Strauss's close friendship with John Connally and his
moderate conservatism makes him anathema to ideologues. If they block him,
the Old Guard will try retiring Gov. Warren Hearnes of Missouri or ex-Gov.
Robert McNair of South Carolina.
3) Liberal non-McGovernites who veto Strauss and want Westwood out. They
are talking mostly about State Chairman Chuck Manatt of California and Joe
Crangle of New York as a compromise, with Crangle in a better position, mainly
because he has more strength in his own state delegation. But English and
Paterson have the long knives out for Crangle.
Some people are talking about giving Westwood a suspended execution until
next June. But if she gets that, she'll try to hang on through '74. Westwood's
friends say she has the votes, but in telephone checks we made this morning we
found tremendous pressure from all over the country to make a change, no matter
what the cost.
Much depends, of course, on Teddy Kennedy. No Democratic politician can
fully understand his all-out campaigning for McGovern for so many weeks. He
had established his brownie points early and could have relaxed, but instead
he was McGovern's main prop for the whole campaign. This signifies his 1976
intentions have hardened, and means that his decision on the Chairmanship could
be decisive. What can't be answered yet is whether EMK will try to influence
directly the December 9th meeting. It would be uncharacteristic.
Future Leadership: We doubt that George McGovern will retain a much more
effective leadership role in the Democratic Party than did Barry Goldwater
after his Republican debacle in 1964. These are the faces to look for in the
future:
Teddy Kennedy: Belief in his inevitability for '76 is strong but by no
means unanimous. Some old pros believe he has suffered because of his intimate
connection with the McGovern campaign. That may not be so, but EMK will have
to rid himself of his McGovernish rhetoric. Those who expect Teddy to have
a strong Party leadership role in 1973-74 may be disappointed, judging from
his abhorrence of such a role for the past decade in Massachusetts.
Walter Mondale: He was unveiled as the Democrat of the future by HHH
on television Tuesday night after his big Senatorial reelection. He is un-
questionably better looking and more charismatic than McGovern. Whether he
is a better politician depends upon what he does about his extreme pro-busing
posture.
Dan Walker: Coming from behind to be elected Governor of Illinois after
blowing his big early lead makes Walker an instant national figure. He is
handsome, aggressive, dynamic and fully understands the populistic appeal.
Whether he can bear up under the pounding of a hostile state legislature is
another matter, however.
Hubert Humphrey: Not for President (we don't think), but he could be an
108
effective Party leader. Whether he takes a position on the Westwood question
will determine how much steel is in his spine right now.
REPUBLICANS
RMN: The President now has in his hand the resignation of every White
House aide and Cabinet officer. A staff meeting today made the following
things perfectly clear:
1) He plans a major shakeup and reorganization of both the White House
staff and the Cabinet, with an unprecedented cutback in the bureaucracy.
2) HEW and HUD will bear the heaviest cuts, but the President will also
make clear that he wants major pruning in the State Department, which comes
very close to telling his staff that he wants John Connally to be the new
Secretary.
3) Fred Malek will be Number 2 at the White House, with specific authority
from RMN to plan all personnel changes from the Cabinet on down for the second
term. Those going out: William Rogers, Mel Laird, George Romney, John Volpe,
Richard Kleindienst, perhaps others. Those with high odds of going into the
Cabinet will be Don Rumsfeld, John Ehrlichman and George Bush. In the White
House, Bob Haldeman, Charles Colson and Ken Clawson will probably stay; Herb
Klein, Bob Finch and Bill Safire will go.
Now that he's won his overwhelming mandate, Mr. Nixon's problem will be
to deliver on it. The President will be dealing with a Congress markedly more
liberal in each House. Despite the pickup of 13 seats in the House, the
retirement of key conservatives in both Parties make the House more unsympathetic
to Mr. Nixon. The Senate, trouble enough during his first term, looks to be
even worse this time, with big leftward shifts in several states.
The unquestioned certainty is that, this liberal Congress will hand the
President one veto bill after another, figuring he will wear out his welcome
with working men and other groups. Without any available funding, Mr. Nixon
will have to take on a more conservative image, disappointing those aides who
want more "people-oriented" programs and, quite possibly, infuriating the
Congress. We are not at all sure about the political impact, however. Remember
President Dwight Eisenhower's veto-orgy as a lame duck President (1959-60)
raised his popularity even higher.
Mindful of all this before the election was even held, the President called
for a post-election planning conference at Key Biscayne with Mitchell, Haldeman,
and other top aides in attendance. Mitchell came with a hard plan that the
President may or may not buy:
1) Put a top non-political lawyer in as Attorney General to create over-
night a new climate of unimpeachable honesty at the Justice Department. This
would erect one barricade for the Administration as the trial and Congressional
probes of the Watergate and attendant scandals get underway and dominate the
headlines for weeks, possibly months, early in the second term.
2) Try to make a better deal with Organized Labor to ease potential economic
disasters from collective bargaining about to start in auto, rubber, communica-
tions industries. The theme: keep AFL-CIO Pres. George Meany neutralized.
3) Clean out all the participants in the Watergate and espionage scandals
and convince the voters that RMN means business in this area.
The President may or may not buy some or all of this, but Kleindienst
looks like a goner by February 1st.
Rolard Erros
Rout D. Nords Roht
This Report is copyrighted and prepared for the confidential information of our clients.
Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is prohibited.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
11/10/72
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
This incomplete demographic informa-
tion has been gathered from CBS, NBC,
and two articles in recent editions
of the Post.
This weekend many more election
analysis pieces will probably appear
in the nation's papers. I will
review these and forward them to you.
Complete, accurate information will
not be available until the post-
election surveys are completed. Dis-
cussion with John Davies today indi-
cates I will have access to Gallup's
post-election survey.
1972 VOTER PATTERNS
CBS
CBS
NBC
Fine/Mitofsky
Voter Prof.
Analysis
N
M
N
M
N
M
Whites
69
31
Blacks
17
82
14
18-24
46
52
48
50
25-29
54
44
30-44
61
37
45-59
62
37
65+
67
31
Under $7,000
38
$7-15,000
61
65
$15,000+
82
White Collar
62
Blue Collar
54
40
59
Farmers
62
38
Union
50
50
51+
Non-Union
66
33
Unemployed
50
50
47
50
Housewives
62
' 68 Wall.Supp
60
33
75
Wall. Dems
54
22
Retired
66
33
Protestant
66
33
Catholics
53
46
Jews
33
66
39
Latins
24
18
Italians
65
35
57
43
Republicans
91
90
Democrats
62
60
Independents
59
Cities
500M +
38
61
250M-500M
57
41
58
50M-250M
53
45
10M-50M
58
40
Suburbs
63
35
66
Small Towns
64
Rural
66
31
68
WASHINGTON POST
November 8, 1972
Nixon Support High
From/A1
Nationwide, the
Seventy
per cent for Mr.
those voters
reflection
cording to NBC,
red
supported Go
overn atti
with 17 per cent four years
1968 support
president
ago.
this time
that
Senator McGovern wou
Latin voters, which
poil
according
means Puerto Ricans in New
High
voted 90 per
York, Cubans in Florida and
NBC's
ddent, while
wrong
Mexican Americans
more than
Democrats
expected to by
and Californi
ho are
McGovern
to-1. Instrad, he, won 50 per
cent to
mana
cent, Mr. Nixon WOR and
people, the
cent
per
the American
icans who
up
accordi
Sebmitz won 2 per cent
7,000 an-
at
make up 18
ue col lite
per cent
lake up
voter
ent who in 1968 have 56 per
increase
of the
the
of their votes to Hubert
over 1968
went 57-43
Musphrey)
ac
C.
according to
votes
voted be
according
the
cent for
Ptime, Mr. Nix
time accord to
on wen 40 per cent of Ital
per
cent
ticket last
they
er cent of
ians votes, and Gdv Georg
Mr. Nixon.
Wallace won 10 per cent. In
votes. Blue
1964, 77 per cent of Italians
also show
Black
imprise 8 per
20
voted for Democrat yndon
lessed
ctorate, less
Johnson.
chei
ortion of the
people
populs
the turnout
Whites, overall, who
phrey
about 58 per
make up 92 per cent of the
the bi
registered.
electorate, were voting more
Sen McGo
than, 2-to-1, to re-elect the
cent. Sen.
cent
solidly Demo-
President, 69 per cent to 31.
per cent of
ce the days of
Four years Mr. Nixon
Sen.
F
elt, con-
the choice of 47 per
Sen
abo
dicular
Twen cent of those
since
intervit
inter
no
loc
one
di-
selves
recto
elec-
tion K $ad 'Go
ahe and
try
me a
ac
molid Irighmi
of
an
of the sur
of
48th
Sun
See
vary
Nixd
N
In
tern
of
they
not
from
62 person
for the Presio
areas
sky who
Housew
jection
five voters
Time been
gave 62
NE
8 The
votes to Mr.
year
demo
ittern
of
some data prove
(Mitefsky
Rich
cents
smashing
re-el
such
the Indi
show
America
or
the
unite
direct
Mr.
(not
rthp
Nixo
big cit
Gore
prete
On
logical
80 pe
who
group
ers went
foi
Gover
Mr.
Nixen
twoo
goo
Nixo
Bill
ked
Prot
per
sdew
nome
cent
nee,
se
Mxing
a
the
ba
Bu
1932
voter
ima
as
first
inter
and
they
cent
sheir
VOM
pell-
In
ing
time
yenter
Nixon
53
This
CBS
tel- M
News with the help of
cortis
to:
George Fine Research, Inc
Niko
cli
a New.York market analysis
cent
vo
firm/ gives as "pure" a
Another
W
breakdown of voting pat-
was
survey
n
terns as is likely to be done
tered
ficant
V
this year since interviews
ence
nor
time
hereafter will likely be
between
ttendmi
skewed by respondents'
lege and
not doing
knowing who won,
The di
uses th
CBS also views this tech-
sur
a ed
nique as being purer than
24
cent
See PATTERNS, A24, Col. 6
Senator
Govern and
per ce
Nixon
Chan
McG
have
JACE
vote
cant
amon
white
results, and
of
new
The survey's totals among
said they sup
spardsh speaking voters
nor Wallace
last
ere The le, because of
they voted
the Pas YG number iden-
and 33 per
voted for Se
tiffed (1 per cent), but indi-
Lions that Spanish-
Among
speaking
favored Mr.
who said. th
Nixon far more heavily than
crats, a p
they in previous years.
number,
Aarons, West
they voted
Coll Thureau chief of The
compared
Post reported
for Mr. NL
toda
Ir. Nixon "got a
Another int
consid able percentage of
data on they
the
merican vote.
cerns geogra
Hum
90 per sent
of course, is
of
This, Aarans
sociological pat
said, wase key factor in r.
ern life. Mc
Nixon's
000 vote
worst in area
fro
slide white in Californ
cities, and bes
NBC prectict
cities, but
pombe
stilts last night showed the
among those
have fled fro
Spantsh-speaking voters
18
suburbia. T
the five where NBC
reporters had ed out key
areas
gave
cent on
Place
votes
Nixon, UF
500,000
Among
a over
250-000
New
0,000
*
50,000-
3,000
10,800
,000
urbs
al
The VPA
b eakdown
over
taking the
dwellers by
The
da
447
dicates the ol
an 8 per c
voter is. the more like he
Nixon over
on
support
N But the
Ni
following
ble
how even
clear
Nixon
fies, ran
NISCOM McGGV
:cent
ie su
gains
d citie
in smt
voters who said
s-th
the
9 per cent
mal
nat
the
Nix
Wt
nator McGovern
nt in
in defece
ome
reserved
to
fig
ed
hig
In be ot
yo
hose)
no said
m
house
labor funion
WASHINGTON STAR
VOTING FOR SENATOR
November 9, 1972
Associated Pross
Here are the latest vote totals for scantorial candidates
inames of incumbents are followed by x):
State
% of Prets.
Democrat
Republican
Alabama
Sparkman- x
Blount
96
000,327
336,780
Alaska
Guess
Stevens X
72
16,326
55,700
Arkansas
McClellan X
Babbitt
97
368,782
236,569
Colorado
Haskell
Allott X
99
449,438
440,084
Delaware
Biden
Boggs X
100
115,528
112,542
Georgia
Nunn
Thompson
92
571,278
481,092
Idsho
Davis
McClure
100
140,523
161,211
Illinois
Pucinski
Percy X
98
1,678,784
2,325,772
Iowa
Minnesota
Mondale X
Hansen
Clark
Miller X
98
959,325
724,513
100
649,076
524,209
Kansas
Tetzlaff
Mississippi
Eastland X
Carmichael
Pearson x
,
99
366,479
246,532
99
195,065
600,544
Kentucky
Montana
Metcalf x
Hibbard
Huddleston
Num
98
150,050
146,460
100
525,990
491,493
Louistana
Nebraska
Johnston
Toledano
Carponter
Curtis X
100
255,702
282 911
90
588,162
203,607
McKeithen (Ind.)
New Hampshire
McIntyre X
Powell
247,414
99
183,316
138,703
Maine
Hathaway
Smith X
New Jersey
Krebs
Case X
100
223,279
195,536
97
936,164
1,045,210
Massachusetts
Droney
Brooke x
New Mexico
Daniels
Domenicl
100
820,375
1,496,312
99
171,568
202,207
Michigan
Kelley
Griffin x
North Carolina
Galifianakis
Helms
95
1,519,122
1,713,190
99
671,872
792,553
Oklahoma
Edmondson
Bartlett
100
470,498
005,530
Oregon
Morse
Hatfield x
100
423,564
491,393
Rhode Island
Pell X
Chafee
100
212,338
180 015
South Carolina
Zeigler
Thurmond X
97
238,613
418,411
South Dakota
Abourezk
Hirsch
100
171,910
120,412
Tennessee
Blanton
Baker X
100
441,309
714,274
Texas
Sanders
Tower X
93
1,382,792
1,669,073
Virginia
Spong x
Scott
100
643,116
725.007
West Virginia
Randolph X
Leonard
98
472,948
240,784
Wyoming
Vinich
Hansen x
99
40,695
100,601
WASHINGTON STAR
November 9, 1972
VOTING FOR GOVERNOR
Associated Pross
Here are the talest vote totals in the gubernatorial clec-
tions (names of incumbents are followed by x):
State
% of Prets.
Democrat
Republican
Arkansas
Bumpers X
Blaylock
96
455,538
145,774
Delaware
Tribbitt
Peterson X
100
116,669
100,348
Illinois
Walker
Oglivie X
98
2,322,056
2,261,309
Indiana
Welsh
Bowen
100
896,534
1,196,637
Iowa
Franzenburg
Ray X
100
485,117
702,347
Kansas
Docking X
Kay
100
559,788
332,357
Missouri
Dowd
Bond
99
814,773
1,003,031
Montana
Judge
Smith
98
166,872
141,403
New Hampshire
Crowley
Thomson
99
125,140
133,900
North Carolina
Bowles
Holshouser
99
721,031
762,031
North Dakota
Link
Larsen
01
136,532
131,121
Rhode Island
Noel
DeSimone
100
208,598
185,683
South Dakota
Kneip X
Thompson
100
181,631
121,203
Texas
Briscoo
Grover
93
1,495,381
1,414,613
Utah
Rampton x
Strike
99
323,692
141,410
Vermont
Salmon
Hackett
99
103,129
81,062
Washington
Rosellini
Evans X
94
529,248
601,419
West Virginia
Rockfeller
Moore X
98
342,699
413,865
WASHINGTON STAR
November 9, 1972
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT
Associated Pross
)
State
% ot %
Nixon
% of %
McGovern
% of %
Behmits
% of
%
Firctoral Trend
Prct.
Vote
Vale
Vule
GOP.
DEN.
AID
Alabama
95
692,480
70
215,792
23
12,248
1
9
0
0
Alaska
72
41,809
59
24,362
31
5,354
7
3
0
0
Arizona
100
381,532
65
188,892
32
20,543
3
0
0
0
Arkansas
90
427,014
70
190,598
30
4
0
C
0
0
California
100
4,546,396
56
3,433,569
42
230.548
2
45
0
0
Colorado
97
572,540
63
320,402
30
16,768
1
7
0
0
Commecticut
00
708,266
59
534,110
40
23,285
1
8
0
0
Delaware
100
139,796
60
91,907
39
2,615
1
3
0
0
Dist. of Columbia
100
29,697
21
100,974
79
0
0
3
0
Florida
100
1,752,230
72
600,546
28
0
17
0
0
Georgia
92
794,333
76
264,751
24
0
12
0
0
Hawall
100
167,414
03
100,017
37
0
4
0
0
Idaho
97
186,432
65
76,199
26
26,901
9
4
0
0
Illinois
97
2,748,252
60
1,863,731
40
0
26
0
0
Indiana
100
1,401,517
67
705,808
33
0
13
0
5
Iowa
100
702,308
58
492,642
41
21,587
I
8
0
0
Kansas
100
605,632
68
265,158
30
21,020
2
7
0
0
Kentucky
100
671,198
64
369,051
35
17,168
I
9
0
0
Louisiana
92
701,455
66
314,309
30
52,533
4
10
0
0
Maine
100
251,327
61
160,845
39
0
4
0
0
Maryland
100
795,358
62
486,195
37
18,483
1
10
0
0
Massachusetts
100
1,104,310
45
1,323,843
55
0
0
14
0
Michigan
95
1,895,071
57
1,411,132
42
59.880
1
21
0
0
Minnesota
98
881,326
52
759,473
47
30,670
1
10
0
0
Mississippi
99
493,080
79
125,750
20
11,654
1
7
0
0
Missourl
99
1,125,250
63
678,000
37
0
12
0
0
Montana
98
177,926
$ 58
116,490
38
13,217
4
4
0
0
Nebraska
100
381,157
71
102,600
29
0
5
0
0
Nevada
98
114,593
04
65,258
34
0
3
0
0
New Hampshire
99
212,232
65
115.474
34
3,327
1
4
0
0
New Jersey
97
1,769,458
62
1,058,451
38
24,335
0
17
0
0
New Mexico
99
233,036
62
138,756
36
8,623
2
&
0
0
New York
99
4,149,761
59
2,834,940
41
0
41
0
0
North Carolina
99
1,051,583
70
437,290
29
24,655
1
13
0
0
North Dakota
94
166,131
63
94,927
35
5,358
2
3
0
.0
Ohio
9G
2,361,233
60
1,524,118
39
76,242
1
25
0
0
Oklahoma
100
745,810
74
242,957
24
22,867
\
2
8
0
0
Oregon
100
483,229
53
390,867
42
46,104
5
€
0
0
Pennsylvania
100
2,703975
60
1,788,634
39
67,255
1
27
0
0
Rhode Island
100
200,166
54
185,239
46
0
4
0
0
South Carolina
97
463,333
71
186,244
28
9,854
1
8
0
0
South Dakota
100
163,746
55
107,432
45
0
4
0
0
Tennessee
100
812,481
68
355,817
30
30,246
2
10
0
0
Texas
-
02
2,090,676
67
1,062,230
33
0
20
0
0
Utah,
09
315,195
6S
122,466
26
28,187
6
4
0
0
Vermont
99
115,453
63
67,508
37
0
3
0
0
Virginia
100
982,703
69
439,540
30
19,221
1
12
0
0
Washington
04
070,150
57
475,553
39
48,807
4
0
0
0
West Viginia
08
471,858
61
271,856
30
0
0
0
0
Wisconsin
100
986,751
54
805,726
41
47,456
2
11
0
0
TOTAL
99
100,222
20
44,201
30
0
3
0
0
Wyoming
45,861,000
01 28,402,465
38
1,047,030
1
49
17
0
Committee for the Re-election of the President
November 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Turnout
1) The demographic breaks from the CBS Election Day Poll
are attached. To my knowledge and we talked to Dick Scammon
yesterday, NBC did not do an election day poll but based
their demographic analysis on key precincts.
2) A table with returns for most of the major cities that
were available at noon today are attached.
3) National turnout was significantly lower than recent
presidential elections. While a relatively light turnout was
expected, the actual was lower than either the networks' or
our projections. It was also much lower than any reports re-
ceived during election day. This was apparently becuase most
local election officials did not discriminate between larger
numbers of people voting and percentages of those eligible
to vote. Therefore actual numbers and long lines were
interpreted and reported as large turnout.
There was no way for either the networks or us to measure
percentage of turnout during the day as we checked almost
100 local election officials before the election and none could
give us percentage turnout by time of day for previous elections.
It also appears that turnout was very uneven by states and local
areas within states. While the local area returns will not be
available for several days, the information we do have indicates
that the turnout was very light in the central cities and average
to high in some suburban areas. We are collecting the returns
for all of the counties in the country and will do a further analysis
of turnout when the information is available.
PRESIDENTIAL RETURNS
BIG CITY VOTING
CITY
PRESIDENT NIXON
MCGOVERN
PRECINCTS REPORTING
Los Angeles Co.
(Los Angeles)
1,516,832
(57%)
1,163,205
(43%)
99.7%
San Francisco
127,820
(43)
170,702
(57)
100
Baltimore
116,941
(46)
138,716
(54)
100
Miami
244,814
(59)
172,023
(41)
100
Boston
70,326
(34)
139,015
(66)
100
Cuyahoga Co.
(Cleveland)
329,567
(51)
316,263
(49)
100
Hamilton Co.
(Cincinnati)
248,013
(68)
119,204
(32)
100
Atlanta
85,560
(55)
69,000
(45)
100
Denver
122,005
(55)
97,952
(45)
100
St. Louis
68,345
(43)
112,022
(57)
99
(unofficial
Philadelphia
343,986
(44)
432,330
(56)
100
Dallas
290,644
(72)
115,707
(28)
99
Multnomah Co.
(Portland)
117,188
(48)
124,485
(52)
100
New York
1,259,244
(48)
1,341,164
(52)
100
Houston
304,846
(62)
189,595
(38)
89
King Co.
(Seattle
251,055
(58)
181,467
(42)
95.7
Pittsburgh
370,281
(56)
291,283
(44)
97
Wayne Co.
(Detroit)
257,492
(41)
366,928
(59)
90
Chicago
505,953
(43)
663,159
(57)
90
San Diego
365,644
(64)
203,722
(36)
100
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
R. M. TEETER
The results of the CBS election day survey by democraphic groups are:
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Whites
66
32
2
Blacks
19
80
1
18-24 year olds
48
50
2
Males
63
35
2
Females
60
38
2
Blue Collar Workers
57
40
3
White Collar Workers
66
33
1
Union Households
51
46
3
Catholics
56
43
1
1968 Humphrey Voters
21
77
2
Democrats
37
62
1
Wallace Voters
75
22
3
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HERBERT G. KLEIN HK
Everett Collier called to recall that in 1969 you
said you wanted to bridge the transition in Texas
so that Democrats would vote not only for a Republican
candidate but for part of his ticket. He said you
have bridged the gap in this election as your
popularity was transformed into county courthouse
votes for John Tower. He believes you have had a
long range and significant impact on Texas. This
was reflected additionally in the close race for
governor.
PRESIDENTIAL TABLE BY UPI
STATE
PCTS
NIXON-0/0
McGOVERN-0/0
SCHMITZ-0/0
GOP
DEM
AIP
TOTAL
45,520,507-61
28,281,207-38
1,037,830-1
521
17
0
ALA
91
684,051-76-E
210,584-23
12,257-1
9
0
0
ALAS
72
41,809-59-E
24,362-34
5,354-7
3
0
0
ARIZ
96
375,888-65-E
184,615-32
20,144-3
6
0
0
ARK
96
426,060-70-E
190,404-30
6
0
0
CALIF
99
4,502,130-55-E
3,471,712-43
227,845-2
45
0
0
COLO
96
563,688-63-E
316,865-36
16,507-1
7
0
0
CONN
95
767,830-60-E
509,544-39
22,020-1
8
0
0
DEL
100
139,796-60-E
91,907-39
2,615-1
3
0
0
DC
100
29,697-21
109,974-79-E
0
3
0
FLA
100
1,752,230-72-E
690,546-28
17
0
0
GA
87
763,026-75-E
256,796-25
12
0
0
HAW
100
167,414-63-E
100,617-37
4
0
0
IDA
94
181,313-65-E
74,863-26
26,064-9
4
0
0
ILL
97
2,742,106-60-E
1,860,397-40
26
0
0
IND
100
1,397,748-67-E
703,202-33
13
0
0
IOW
99
701,466-58-E
492,372-41
21,655-1
8
0
0
KANS
99
604,842-68-E
264,557-30
20,796-2
7
0
0
KY
100
670,937-64-E
369,082-35
17,175-1
9
0
0
LA
92
701,455-66-E
314,309-30
52,533-4
10
0
0
ME
99
251,287-61-E
160,833-39
4
0
0
MD
100
795,358-62-E
486,195-37
18,483-1
10
0
0
MASS
100
1,104,310-45
1,323,843-55-E
0
14
0
MICH
93
1,845,361-57-E
1,381,232-42
59,346-1
21
0
0
MINN
97
855,599-52-E
772,981-47
29,880-1
10
0
0
MISS
99
498,876-79-E
125,945-20
11,650-1
7
0
0
MO
99
1,125,256-63-E
678,660-37
12
0
0
MONT
98
176,958-58-E
115,905-38
13,143-4
4
0
0
NEBR
100
383,332-71-E
162,365-29
5
0
0
NEV
98
114,339-64-E
64,801-36
3
0
0
N.H.
99
212,212-65-E
115,474-34
3,322-1
4
0
0
N.J.
97
1,765,791-63-E
1,055,183-37
23,464-0
17
0
0
N.M.
98
230,699-62-E
137,800-36
8,623-2
4
0
0
N.Y.
99
4,151,415-60-E
2,884,812-40
41
0
0
N.C.
99
1,060,713-70-E
435,332-29
24,512-1
13
0
0
N.D.
90
159,390-63-E
91,162-36
4,984-1
3
0
0
OHIO
96
2,360,644-60-E
1,523,126-39
75,837-1
25
0
0
OKLA
100
745,910-74-E
243,338-24
22,888-2
8
0
0
ORE
100
483,229-53-E
390,867-42
46,104-5
6
0
0
PENN
100
2,703,975-60-E
1,788,034-39
67,255-1
27
0
0
R.I.
100
208,482-53-E
184,999-47
4
0
0
S.C.
97
464,007-71-E
186,910-28
9,869-1
8
0
0
S.D.
98
160,258-54-E
138,709-46
4
0
0
TENN
100
812,484-68-E
355,817-30
30,256-2
10
0
0
TEX
89
2,019,680-67-E
1,032,160-33
26
0
0
UTAH
99
315,195-68-E
122,466-26
28,187-6
4
0
0
VT
97
113,916-63-E
66,419-37
3
0
0
VA
99
976,335-69-E
436,067-30
19,107-1
12
0
0
WASH
93
673,028-57-E
471,218-39
48,499-4
9
0
0
W.VA.
94
452,009-64-E
261,859-36
6
0
0
WISC
100
986,751-54-E
805,726-44
47,456-2
11
0
0
WYO
99
100,222-70-E
44,261-30
3
0
0
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
B.
SUBJECT:
Congressional Results
From information currently available, the following report on
Senate and House races has been prepared. However, returns
from precincts and counties -- particularly absentee ballots --
are incomplete in some areas.
(1) SENATE
It appears that the Republican Party will have a net
loss of two Senate seats in the 93rd Congress. Four
Democratic seats changed hands (Domenici, Helms,
Bartlett, and Scott), while six GOP seats were lost to
the Democrats (Allott, Boggs, Miller, Nunn, Smith,
and Hirsch).
However, the philosophical tilt of the Senate will
probably remain the same as it was during the 92nd
Congress, with Huddleston (Ky) and Nunn (Ga) swinging
from side to side as the issues dictate.
(2)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Of the "marginal" GOP incumbents, we appear to have
lost five (Kyl, Schwengel, O'Konski, McKevitt, and
Lloyd).
There were two candidates who lost GOP "open" Districts.
They are Cook (Fletcher Thompson's seat), and Hewgley
(Belcher's seat). Pritchard (R) is running for Pelly's
Washington seat and this is still too close to call.
Eighteen Republicans retained GOP "open" seats resulting
from retirements, defeats or Members seeking other offices.
Page Two
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES (Cont'd)
Of Republican challengers for new or Democratic
Districts, we have picked up 25.
If the early returns hold up, the GOP will have in-
creased its current ranks (177) by 13 for a total of
190 in the new House. It should be noted, however,
that redistricting actually eliminated five present
GOP districts, leaving our political starting base
at 172. Therefore, we actually gained a net 18.
Because of serious losses through retirement of
Ranking Members and Repu blican gains in the South,
I anticipate the Administration's impact on legislation
before the House will be unchanged.
% of
Party
State
Pcts.
Republican %
Democrat %
Other
Other
Change
Ala
93
Blount
Sparkman
Stone
Leflore
NC
327,544 33
643,702 - 64
6,504 - 0
29,131 3
Alaska
72
Stevens
Guess
NC
55,700 - 78
16,326 - 22
Ark
96
Babbitt
McClellan
NC
236,006 - 39
368,178 - 61
Colo
96
Allott
Haskell
Salazar
Loss
422,732 - 48
435,945 - 51
12,221 - 1
Del
100
Boggs
Biden
Majka
Loss
112,542 - 49
115,528 - 51
817 - 0
Geo
86
Thompson
Nunn
NC
459,688 - 45
546,077 - 55
Ida
98
McClure
David
Stoddard
NC
156,885 - 53
138,055 - 45
6,631 - 2
Ill
98
Percy
Pucinski
NC
2,813,224 - 63
1,673,994 - 37
Iowa
99
Miller
Clark
Rocap
Loss
523,938 - 45
648,755 - 55
8,662 - 0
Kans
98
Pearson
Tetzlaff
Miller
NC
599,218 - 73
194,666-23
34,414 - 4
Ky
100
Nunn
Huddleston
Breeden
Bartley
Loss
491,302 - 48
525,895 - 51
8,586 - 1
5,834 - 0
La
99
Toledano
Johnston
Lyons
McKeithen
NC
203,607 - 19
588, 162 - 56
30,183 - 2 247,414-23
Maine
99
Smith
Hathaway
Loss
195,506 - 46
223,259 - 54
Mass
100
Brooke
Droney
NC
1,496,312 - 65
820,375 - 35
Mich
93
Griffin
Kelley
Dillinger
Halpert
NC
1,672, 464 - 53
1,490,709 - 47
21,592 - 0
17,728 - 0
-2-
% of
Party
State
Pcts.
Republican %
Demo crat %
Other
Other
Change
Minn
97
Hansen
Mondale
NC
700,686 - 42
936, 874 - 58
Missi
98
Carmichael
Eastland
Walker
McKinley
NC
245, 858 - 39
365,468 - 58
14,925 -
3
6,077 - 0
Mont
98
Hibbard
Metcalf
NC
145,552 - 48
157,301 - 52
Nebr
100
Curtis
Carpenter
NC
282,324 - 53
255,424 - 47
N. Hamp
99'
Powell
McIntyre
NC
138,703 - 43
183,316 - 57
N. J.
97
Case
Krebs
Freund
NC
1,642,204 - 63
935,214 - 36
30,090 - 1
N. Mex
98
Domenici
Daniels
Gain
200,209 - 54
170,758 - 46
N. Car
99
Helms
Galifinakis
Gain
785,575 - 55
666,454 - 45
Okla
100
Bartlett
Edmondson
Roach
Gain
505,843 - 52
471,733 - 48
6,156 - 0
Ore
100
Hatfield
Morse
NC
491,393 - 54
423,564 - 46
RI
100
Chafee
Pell
NC
179,733 - 45
211,719 - 55
So Car
97
Thurmond
Zeigler
NC
419,152 - 64
239, 259 - 36
So Dak
99
Hirsch
Abourezk
Loss
127,555 - 42
169,530 - 58
Tenn
100
H. Baker
Blanton
NC
714,274 - 62
441,309 - 38
Tex
89
Tower
Sanders
Amaya
NC
1,609,671-54
1,342,098 - 45
58,203 - 1
-3-
% of
Party
State
Pcts.
Republican
Democrat
Other
Other
Change
Va.
99
Scott
Spong
Henderson
Gain
721,078 - 52
638,364 - 46
33,739 - 2
W. Va.
94
Leonard
Randolph
NC
231,604 - 33
452,938 - 67
Wyoming
99
Hansen
Vinich
NC
100,604 - 72
40,695 - 28
Net Loss 2
GOP NEW FACES IN HOUSE
CHALLENGERS
Conn 5
Sarasin over Monagan
Me 2
Cohen in Hathaway's old district
Md 4
Holt in new district
NJ 13
Maraziti in new district
NY 26
Gilman over Dow
NY 3
Roncallo in new district
Ill 3
Hanrahan in new district
Ill 17
O'Brien in new district
Ill 10
Young over Mikva
Ind 11
Hudnutt over Jacobs
SD 2
Abdnor in Abourezk's old district
Fla 10
Bafalis in new district
La 3
Treen in Caffrey's old district
Miss 4
Cochran in Griffin's old district
Miss 5
Lott in Colmer's old district
SC 6
Young in McMillan's old district
Tenn 6
Beard over Anderson
Tex 5
Steelman over Cabell
Ariz 4
Conlan in new district
Cal 42
Burgener in new district
Cal 36
Ketchum in new district
Colo 5
Armstrong in new district
Colo 4
Johnson in Aspinall's old district
Nev AL
Towell in Baring's old district
Va 4
Daniel in Abbitt's old district
REPUBLICAN NEW FACES IN HOUSE
GOP "OPEN" SEATS
Mass 5
Cronin for Brad Morse
Mass 12
Weeks for Hastings Keith
NJ 12
Rinaldo for Flo Dwyer
NY 31
Mitchell for Al Pirnie
Pa 9
Shuster for Irv Whalley
Ill 21
Madigan for Bill Springer
Mich 18
Huber for Bill Broomfield (moved to new district)
Mo 7
Taylor for Doc Hall
Ohio 4
Guyer for Bill McCulloch
Ohio 16
Regula for Frank Bow
Wis 12
Froelich for John Byrnes
N. C. 9
Martin for Charlie Jonas
Va 6
Butler for Dick Poff
Va 8
Parris for Bill Scott
Cal 39
Hinshaw for John Schmitz
Cal 20
Moorhead for Allen Smith
Ida 1
Symms for Jim McClure
NY 33
Walsh for Jack Terry
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
150
SUBJECT:
Gubernatorial Races
State
%
Republican
Democrat
Other
Arkansas
96
Blaylock
Bumpers
(145,305-24%)
(454,842-76%)
Delaware
100
Peterson
Tribbitt
Lyndall
(109,348-48%)
(116,689-52%)
( 1,604-0%)
Indiana
100
Bowen
Welsh
Hurley
(1,193,631-57%)
(893,348-43%)
( 6,142-0%)
Illinois
98
Ogilvie
Walker
(2,252,121-49%)
(2,313,546-51%)
Iowa
99
Ray
Franzenburg
Dilley
(701,996-59%)
(484,872-40%)
( 14,824-1%)
Kansas
99
Kay
Docking
(331,501-37%)
(557,831-63%)
Missouri
99
Bond
Dowd
(1,001,165-56%)
(815,708-44%)
Montana
98
Smith
Judge
(140,543-45%)
(166,080-55%)
N. Hampshire
99
Thomson
Crowley
McLane
(133,990-42%)
(124,140-39%)
( 62,829-19%)
N. Carolina
99
Holshouser
Bowles
Pettyjohn
(755,880-52%)
(716,578-48%)
( 8,093-0%)
N. Dakota
90
Larsen
Link
(125,828-49%)
(130,740-51%)
Rhode Island
100
DeSimone
Noel
(182,943-46%)
(208,360-54%)
S. Dakota
99
Thompson
Kneip
(119,273-39%)
(179,232-61%)
Texas
89
Grover
Briscoe
Muniz
(1,365,785-45%)
(1435A43-49%)
(187,601-6%)
Utah
99
Strike
Rampton
(141,416-30%)
(323,692-70%)
Vermont
99
Hackett
Salmon
Sanders
( 79,431-43%)
(101,281-56%)
( 2,094-1%)
2.
State
%
Republican
Democrat
Other
Washington
93
Evans
Roselini
(599,458-54%)
(524, 474-46%)
West Virginia
94
Moore
Rockefeller
(396,601-55%)
(329,397-45%)
Democrat Statehouses won by the GOP: Missouri, North Carolina.
GOP Statehouse lost to the Democrat: Delaware, Illinois, Vermont.
Net Loss of one Statehouse for the GOP. (GOP Gov. Ferre of
Puerto Rico was beaten by Popular Democratic Party candidate
Rafael Colon.)
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
R. M. TEETER
The results of the CBS election day survey by democraphic groups are:
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Whites
66
32
2
Blacks
19
80
1
18-24 year olds
48
50
2
Males
63
35
2
Females
60
38
2
Blue Collar Workers
57
40
3
White Collar Workers
66
33
1
Union Households
51
46
3
Catholics
56
43
1
1968 Humphrey Voters
21
77
2
Democrats
37
62
1
Wallace Voters
75
22
3
ABOUT POLITICAL LANDSLIDES
P
UBLIC-OPINION POLLS and most po-
litical experts agree that President
Nixon now seems to be heading for a
landslide victory, perhaps capturing as
SINCE THE CIVIL WAR -
many as 2 out of every 3 popular votes
in November. And yet-
If history is any guide, landslides of
ONLY THREE PRESIDENTS
that sort don't usually happen.
In recent days and weeks, polls by
HAVE WON AS MUCH AS 60%
the Gallup, Harris and Sindlinger or-
OF THE POPULAR VOTE
ganizations, among others, found that
about 60 per cent of the voters favor the
President. Inroads into the "undecided"
voters could push Mr. Nixon's share even
Democrat's Share of
Republican's Share of
higher, maybe to 65 per cent.
Election
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Since 1864-. A look back at the
election records since the Civil War
1864
McClellan
45.0%
Lincoln
55.0%
shows this:
1868
Seymour
47.3%
Grant
52.7%
Not once in the 27 presidential elec-
1872
Greeley
44.0%
Grant
55.6%
12
tions from 1864 to the present has any
1876
Tilden
51.0%
candidate received a landslide that big.
Hayes
48.0%**
3
Over the past 108 years, in fact, only
1880
Hancock
48.1%
Garfield
48.5%*
-
three candidates won as much as 60 per
1884
Cleveland
48.5%**
Blaine
48.2%
-
cent of the total popular vote.
1888
Cleveland
48.7%
Harrison
47.9%**
-
The most recent case of a wide margin
1892
Cleveland
46.1%*
Harrison
43.0%
3
came in 1964, when Democrat Lyndon
B. Johnson tallied 61.1 per cent of the
1896
Bryan
46.7%
McKinley
51.1%
4
popular vote against his Republican op-
1900
Bryan
45.5%
McKinley
51.7%
6
ponent, Barry Goldwater. That was the
1904
Parker
37.6%
Roosevelt
56.4%
19
19
largest share of the vote any candidate
1908
Bryan
43.1%
Taft
51.6%
q
ever received.
You have to go back more than a
1912
Wilson
41.9%**
Taft
23.2%
quarter century to find another candi-
1916
Wilson
49.3%*
Hughes
46.1%
3
date winning more than 60 per cent of
the vote. That was in 1936, when Frank-
1920
Cox
34.1%
Harding
60.4%
26
26
lin D. Roosevelt received 60.8 per cent
of the popular vote in his race against
1924
Davis
28.8%
Coolidge
54.0%
25
25
Republican Alfred M. Landon.
1928
Smith
40.8%
Hoover
58.1%
17
17
The third case of a huge margin of
1932
Roosevelt
57.4%
Hoover
39.7%
18
victory was in 1920. In that year, Re-
publican Warren G. Harding received
1936
Roosevelt
60.8%
Landon
36.5%
60.4 per cent of the popular vote against
24
James M. Cox, his Democratic opponent.
1940
Roosevelt
54.7%
Willkie
44.8%
10
Before Mr. Harding's landslide win,
the biggest percentage of the popular
1944
Roosevelt
53.4%
Dewey
45.9%
7
vote was won by Republican Theodore
1948
Truman
49.6%*
Dewey
45.1%
4
Roosevelt, with 56.4 per cent, in 1904.
1952
Stevenson
44.4%
Eisenhower
55.1%
11
Whether or not Mr. Nixon wins a
1956
Stevenson
42.0%
Eisenhower
57.4%
15
15
landslide popular vote, political experts
say he is headed for a landslide electoral
1960
Kennedy
49.7%*
Nixon
49.5%
-
victory-with a chance of capturing all
50 States. Franklin Roosevelt came
1964
Johnson
61.1%
Goldwater
38.5%
23
closest to a sweep in modern times
when he won 46 of 48 States in 1936.
1968
Humphrey
42.7%
Nixon
43.4%*
/
85 million voters. One thing that
seems certain: November's winner will
set a new high for votes received by a
NOTE: Where percentages do not add to 100, part of the popular vote went
candidate. With 18-year olds voting for
to minor-party candidates.
the first time, a record 85 million Amer-
*A "minority President" who won election with a majority of electoral votes,
icans are expected to go to the polls. It
though a minority of the popular vote.
would take only 51 per cent of the
votes to break the previous record of
43.1 million votes won by Lyndon John-
son in 1964.
Copyright © 1972, U.S. News & World Report, Inc.
U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, Oct. 16, 1972
25
ALA
70 76 6
ALAS
55
59
4
ARIZ
- 70
65
5
ARK
-75
70
5
CALIF
55
55
"
COLO
-65
63
2
CONN
60
60
"
-
DEL
-65
60
5
FLA
-70
72
2
GA
-75
75
=
HAW
-70.
63
7
IDA
75
65
10
ILL
60
60
"
IND
-70
67
3
IOW
70
58
12
KANS
-70
68
2
KY
65
64
/
LA
-75
66
9
ME
-65
61
4
MD
60
62
2
MASS
51
45
6
MICH
55
57
2
MINN
GO
52
8
MISS
-70
79
9
MO
60
63
3
MONT
-60
58
2
NEBR
-75
71
y
=9 710 3
L528
<1010
NEV
-60
64
4
N.H.
65
65
=
N.J.
60
63
3
N.M.
-10
62
8
N.Y.
60
60
=
N.C.
-70
70
"
N.D.
-70
63
7
OHIO
65
60
5
OKLA
70
74
4
ORE
-55
53
2
PENN
60
60
=
R.I.
65
53
12
S.C.
70
71 /
S.D.
70
54
16
TENN
-70
68
2
TEX
70
67
3
UTAH
-70
68
2
VT
.70
63
7
VA
-70
69
/
WASH
55
57
2
W.VA.
65
64
/
WISC
52
54
2
WYO
-70
70
"I
D.C.
?
21
44
15!
44
107
11/6/72
1972 NIXON-McGOVERN TRIAL HEATS
Registered Voters
Total
With Leaners
Without
Without
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
Leaners
Leaners
W2-Jun 16-26
52
32
16
H-Jul 1-6
55
35
10
G-Jul 14-17
56-37- 7
O-Jul 19-20
55-26-19
54-27-19
H-Aug 2-3
57
34
9
G-Aug 5-12
57-31-12
G-Aug 24-27
64
30
6
O-Aug 29-31
64
27
9
60-23- 9
59-23- 9
H-Aug 29-30
63
29
8
W3-Sep 5-16
62
32
6
H-Sep 19-21
59
31
10
G-Sep 22-25
61
33
6
O-Sep 29-
59
28
13
52-26-13
50-26-14
Oct 1
H-Oct 3- 5
60
33
7
0-Oct 6-8
59
25
16
51-22-27
49-22-29
G-Sep 29-
60
34
6
Oct 9
0-Oct 13-15
60
28
12
52-24-24
51-24-25
G-Oct 13-18
59
36
5
H-Oct 16-19
59
34
7
0-Oct 20-22
59
28
13
53-23-24
53-22-25
0-Oct 23
58
29
13
51-25-24
50-24-26
H-Oct 24-26
60
32
8
0-Oct 27-29
55
31
14
47-27-26
48-26-26
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
60
31
9
54-27-19
53-27-20
H-Oct 31-
Nov 4
59
35
6
G-Nov 2-4
61
35
4
G. Predict
62
38
H. Predict
61
39
Nov/ eat.
64
36
11/2/72
1972 NIXON-McGOVERN TRIAL HEATS
Registered Voters
Total
With Leaners
Without
Without
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
Leaners
Leaners
W2-Jun 16-26
52
32
16
H-Jul 1-6
55
35
10
G-Jul 14-17
56-37- 7
O-Jul 19-20
55-26-19
54-27-19
H-Aug 2-3
57
34
9
G-Aug 5-12
57-31-12
G-Aug 24-27
34
64
30
6
O-Aug 29-31
37
64
27
9
60-23- 9
59-23- 9
H-Aug 29-30
34
63
29
8
W3-Sep
5-16
30
62
32
6
H-Sep 19-21
28
59
31
10
G-Sep 22-25
28
61
33
6
O-Sep 29-
59
28
31
13
52-26-13
50-26-14
Oct 1
H-Oct 3-5
27
60
33
7
0-Oct
6-8
34
59
25
16
51-22-27
49-22-29
G-Sep 29-
26
60
34
6
Oct
9
0-Oct 13-15
32
60
28
12
52-24-24
51-24-25
G-Oct 13-18
23
59
36
5
H-Oct 16-19
25
59
34
7
0-Oct 20-22
31
59
28
13
53-23-24
53-22-25
0-Oct 23
29
58
29
13
51-25-24
50-24-26
H-Oct 24-26
28
60
32
8
0-Oct 27-29
24
55
31
14
47-27-26
48-26-26
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
29
60
31
9
54-27-19
53-27-20
G Nov 3-Y
2%
64
35
36
4
H NNI-5
214
59
35
6
G Preduct
24
62
38
H Predict
22
61
39
Nov est.
28
64
36
Page 2
TRIAL HEAT SUMMARY
Rev. 11/6 - 12 noon
1972
MO.
N.J.
N.Y.
OHIO
PA.
TEX.
WISC.
W2-Jun 12-26
46-44-10
46-44- 6
49-42- 9
56-38- 6
49-42- 9
54-35-11
52-44- 5
.
W3-Sep
5-16
52-25-22
62-31- 8
55-33-11
60-32- 9
60-27-14
64-24-12
55-36- 9
RW-Sep 17-
62-28-10
57-33-10
63-28- 9
*63-22-16
53-36-11
Oct 5
RW-Oct 6-17
56-33-11
61-29-10
YA-Oct 15-24
51-38-11
54-27-19
58-26-16
62-21-17
ORC-Oct 17-22
58-33- 9
56-34-10
59-31-10
61-27-12
(phone)
DMI-Oct 19-22
53-36-12.
58-31-12
63-23-14
(pers)
(phone)
GA-Oct 20-22
56-39- 5
61-32- 7
57-38- 5
ORC-Oct 28-29
46-38-16
*52-31-17
*58-32-10
*65-35
*64-36
Oct 30-
*62-38
*54-34-12
Nov 6
60
60
60
65
60
70
52
*MOR
*Attitude
*NY Daily
*Cleveland
Analysis
News
Plain Dealer
Res. Servs.
TRIAL EAT SUMMARY
Rev. 11/6 - 12 no 1
1972
NATL.
ALA.
CALIF.
CONN.
ILL.
MD.
MICH.
MINN.
W2-Jun 12-26
52-32-16
63-23-14
53-37-10
54-37-10
56-35-10
52-42- 6
45-45-10
W3-Sep
5-16
62-32- 6
62-20-18
63-23-14
67-23-10
56-26-18
58-30-12
55-37- 8
*60-24-16
*54-38- 8
RW-Sep 17-
58-34- 8 *59-23-18
58-32-10 63-26-11
Oct 5
*50-36-14
*52-37-11
*60-37- 3
RW-Oct 6-17
51-38-11
62-27-11
56-31-13
57-32-11
*58-29-13
*50-37-13 *60-36- 4
**65-35
YA-Oct 15-24
54-32-14
58-28-14
52-36-12
GA-Oct 20-22
55-39- 6
60-36- 4
59-34- 7
RW-Oct 19-22
52-36-12
57-31-12 55-32-13
**61-40
DMI-Oct 19-23
51-39-10
(pers)
ORC-Oct 27-29
51-37-12
*58-30-12
56-31-13 *56-39- 5
Oct 30-
*49-35-16
**60-40
*49-42- 9
Nov 1
64 70
55
60
60
60
55
60
*Field
*Hartford
*Chicago
*Detroit
Times
Tribune
*Minn.
News
Poll
**Sun Times
Rev. 11-6 2 p.m.
MISCELLANEOUS STATE POLLS
Nool
STATE
POLLING DATE
RESULTS
POLLSTER
Iowa
70
Sep 22-23
54-28-18
ORC
Sep 22
64-29- 7
Iowa Poll
Oct 12-15
60-27-13
Iowa Poll
Oct 28-30
58-33- 9
Des Moines Register
Id.
75
Sep 25-30
66-16-18
Central Surveys
Ky.
65
Sep 28-Oct 2
61-24-15
DMI
.
Oct 4
59-26-15
CRP
Mass.
51
Oct 2
44-41-15
ORC
Oct 7-8
48-44- 8
Becker Research
Oct 31-Nov 2
39-49-12
Boston Globe
W. Va. 65
Oct 3
60-24-16
ORC
Oct 11-14
65-25-10
ORC
59-41
Charleston Gazette
Wash. 55
Oct 3- 4
53-32-15
ORC
Oct 13-15
51-31-18
ORC
Oct 20-25
55-29-16
Central Surveys
Ind.
45
Oct 3-5
65-26- 9
MOR
S.D.
70
Oct 2-7
57-25-18
DMI
Okla. 70
Oct 10-13
65-15-20
DMI
N.H.
65
Oct 14
66-21-13
ORC
62-29- 9
Quayle
R.I. 65
Oct 15
57-29-14
Becker Research
Oct 21-22
57-33-10
Becker Research
Colo.
Oct 25-Nov
2
66-27- 8
Denver Post
SENATE RACES
SENATE
TATE
REP. CAND.
LATEST POLL
DEM. CAND.
A
X
ALA
X
Blount
28-46-26
Sparkman
60 59
ALAS
Stevens*
Guess
N
ARK
Babbitt
McClellan
62
COLO
Allott*
Haskell
55
c?
DEL
1
Boggs"
46-40-14
Biden
S
A
GA
?
Thompson
Nunn
60
50
63
IDA
McClure
47-30-23
Davis
C
ILL
Percy*
Pucinski
60
60
N53
IOW
Miller*
Clark
C
KANS
Pearson*
Tetzlaff
71
Nunn
40-41-19
Huddleston
NC
c
A
KY
-
52
52
LA
Toledano
Johnston
C 58
ME
Smith*
Hathaway
A N55 55 C
A
MASS
Brooke
Droney
68
52
N
A
MICH
Griffin
51-49
Kelley
54
62
MINN
Hansen
Mondale
62 ANC
MISS
Carmichael
Eastland
67
MONT
Hibbard
Metcalf*
NEBR
Curtis*
Carpenter
N56
N.H.
Powell
30-55-15
McIntyre*
N.J.
68
C
Case*
Krebs
N.M. +
Domenici
39-24-37
Daniels
C 55
N.C. +
Helms
42-36-22
Galifianakis C N54
+
OKLA
+
Bartlett
42-47-11
Edmondson
N 54 C
2.
STATE
REP. CAND.
LATEST POLL
DEM. CAND.
c
ORE
Hatfield*
Morse
LX
R.I.
x
Chaf
45-44-11
Pell*
454 N54
S.C.
Thurmond*
Ziegler
68 C
-
S.D.
Hirsch
39-44-17
Abourezk
A55 N54
TENN
Baker
Blanton
62 N C
TEX
Tower*
58-30-12
Sanders
C N58
C53 N
t
VA.
+
Scott
Spong*
W. VA.
Leonard
Randolph
62
WYO
Hansen*
Vinich
- DON
Rev. 10/30 -- 3 p.m.
SENATE SEATS
STATE
CANDIDATES
POLLS
COMMENTS
INCUMBENTS
10/29
Michigan
Griffin (R)
10/16 47-37-2-14
Lead still very soft, Detroit area
Kelley (D)
9/21 42-35-22
still key, needs P visit.
Texas
Tower (R)
10/3 53-30-17
Tower pulling away as organization
Sanders (D)
9/12 46-41-13
improves -- needs another showing of
10/20-23 58-30-12
P interest. Still a lingering anti-
Tower sentiment among voters.
Delaware
Boggs. (R)
8/15 63-18-19
Biden very attractive and running
Biden (D)
9/15 41-29-31
well. Bongs badly in need of P
10/15 46-40-14
assist. TV & radio tapes will help.
REPUBLICAN SEATS
Kentucky
Nunn (R)
10/3 53-30-17
Field reports organization needs pick-
Huddleston (D)
9/12 46-41-13
up. Nunn thinks campaign going well.
10/4 40-41-19
Idaho
McClure (R)
10/9 47-30-23
Field reports encouraging.
Davis (D)
South
Hirsch (R)
8/1 38-44-18
Needs $ and help in western part of
Dakota
Abourezk (D)
10/6 39-44-17
state. Also Butz & Mrs. N. wanted.
NON-INCUMBENTS
PRODABLE
New Mexico
Domenici (R)
39-24-37
Organization closcly vied into 2's.
Daniels (D)
Needs $ -- looks good.
Rhode
Chaffee (R)
9/22 49-34-17
Needs Mrs. N. visit, organization
Island
Pell (D)
10/15 47-39-14
10/21-22 48-44- 8
now working w/P's.
Georgia
Thompson (R)
No good data
Field reports close race, running poor
Nunn (D)
campaign. P's visit 2 real boost.
Oklahoma
Bartlett (R)
42-46-12
Campaign improving, still needs
Edmondson (D)
10/10-13 DMI
identity w/p.
POSSIBLE
North
Helrs (R)
42-31-27
Running poor campaign -- too conserva-
Carolina
Galifianakis (D)
tive, organization now improving w/
tic-in to P. Considered close enough
to win.
Alabama
Blount (R)
28-47-2-23
Well organized -- P coattails will be
Sparkman (D)
strong w/straight ticket. Needs more
P involvement -- 1V tapes.
Montana
Hibbard (R.)
No good data
Needs $ but now very doubtful and our
Metcalf (D)
resources should not be wasted here.
Louisiana
Toledano (R)
No good data
3-way race -- needs $ and organiza-
LONG SHOT
Johnston (D)
tional help.
McKeithen (i)
Virginia
?x
Scutt (R)
No good data
Foor candidate, totally dependent on
Spong (D)
P landslide.
??x
New
Powell (R)
10/16 30-58-15
Very conservative condidate, but
Mclntrye (D)
trying to tie race in w/p's.
3
to
4
not
TRENDS
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JAN
53-47
FEB
49-34-11- 6
MAR
50-50
APR
46-31-15- 8
47-53
45-32-16- 7
46-54
49-39-12
MAY
49-51
53-34-13
55-35-10
JUN
51-49
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
J
12
48-36-5- -10
245-43-12
61-37-2
-
4 48-52
56
20-76-4
2
40-38-16-6
19
56-37- 7
AUG
"
48-37-4-2- 9
51-43- 6
6
53-47
26 57-31-12
29-65-6
16
45-29-18-8
=
50-50
64-30-6
2
43-31-19-7
SEP
7
46-39-4-2-
9
51-42- 7
1 52-41-7
49-51
29-65-6
43-28-21-8
61-33- 6
2 51-49
32-68-0
44-29-20-7
6
46-40-4-2- 8
48-52
OCT.
50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
/
52-40-8
= 50-50
55-45-0
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
,
49-44-4-2- 0
47-53
44-36-15-5
60-34- 6
o
42-40-14-4
59-36- 5
NOV
r
59.5-40.5
-
249-51
32-61-7
61-35-4
DEC
Actual
(Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
Vote
5
57.4%
(Dem)
11
15
49.9%
44.4
42.0
50.1
22
38.5%
-
61.1
/
43.4%
49.6
42.7
(Other)
5.3
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5
PAID POLITICAL BR OADCAST RATINGS
THE PRESIDENT
Date
Event
Time
NY Overnights
No. of
Network
LA Over-
No. of
National Viewer
and Share
Stations
nights
Stations
Projection
10/14
"Documentary:
10:30-11:00p.m.
10.5
19
1
CBS
8.6
1
16,800,000
The Record"
CLARK MacGREGOR
10/20
MacGregor's
11:30-Noon
3.9
19
1
CBS
3.3
1
6,240,000
Half Hour
JOHN CONNALLY
10/20
"Blockbuster"
7:30-8:00p.m.
30.5
N/A
5
ABC
21.0
5
48,800,000
NBC
10/23
"Blockbuster"
7:30-8:00p.m.
1.9
N/A
1
NBC
4.7
1
3,040,000
SENATOR McGOVERN
10/1
Biography
8:30-9:00p.m.
10.6
17
1
CBS
7.3
1
16,800,000
10/10
Vietnam
7:30-8:00p.m.
16.2
28
2
CBS
24.8
4
26,920,000
10/15
McGovern In
10:00-10:30p.m.
5.9
9
1
NBC
9.5
1
9,440,000
The Round
10/20
Economy
10:30-11:00p.m.
10.1
19
1
ABC
6.5
1
16,160,000
10/25
Morality In
7:30-8:00p.m.
25.7
44
5
ABC
19.4
4
41,120,000
Government
PAID POLITICAL BROADCAST RATINGS
Radio Advertising Bureau
THE PRESIDENT - RADIO
Date
Network
Time
National Network Projection
10/7
CBS, NBC
12:05-12:20 p.m.
6,233,000 Listeners
& Mutual
10/15
CBS, NBC
5:07-5:22 p.m.
4,346,000 Listeners
& Mutual
10/23
CBS, NBC
12:06-12:21 p.m.
6,233,000 Listeners
& Mutual
10/24
CBS, NBC
10:36-10:51 a.m.
5,039,000 Listeners
& Mutual
11/2/72
1972
COMBINED POLLS
PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY
(Total Including Not Registered)
DATE
POLLING DATES
A
D
N.O.
RELSD.
T-Jan 3-20
54
35
11
G-Jan 7-9
49
39
12
1/20
O-Jan 26-27
54
36
10
G-Feb 4-7
53
36
11
2/17
H-Feb 8-15
55
44
1
2/28
O-Mar 3- 5
59
28
13
G-Mar 3-5
56
32
12
3/9
O-Mar 18-19
54
35
11
G-Mar 24-27
53
37
10
4/13
O-Apr 27-29
52
35
13
O-May 9-10
57
33
10
H-May 9-10
52
46
2
G-May 26-29
61
32
7
6/4
H-Jun 10-15
56
42
2
G-Jun 16-19
60
32
8
6/25
T-Jun 16-26
58
30
12
G-Jun 23-26
56
33
11
7/16
O-Jul 19-20
58
31
11
H-Aug 2-3
59
40
1
8/21
O-Aug 29-31
63
27
10
T-Sep 5-16
62
31
7
O-Sep 29-
62
27
11
Oct 1
0-Oct 6- 8
58
28
14
0-Oct 13-15
60
28
12
H-Oct 17-19
59
40
1
10/30
0-Oct 20-22
60
26
14
0-Oct 27-29
58
30
12
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
62
28
10
11/2/72
- 4 -
PRESIDENT NIXON'S HANDLING OF THE WAR
DATE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
N.O.
1972
H-Oct 17-19
46
52
2
0-Oct 23
53
31
16
0-Oct 27-29
58
31
11
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
59
31
10
National Telephone Survey
O-Sep 29-Oct 1, '72
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE POLL #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
1. Are you registered to vote in the Presidential election
in 1972?
Polling Date
Yes
No
O-Sep 29-
Oct 1,
'72
83
17
.
0-Oct 6-8, '72
82
18
0-Oct 13-15,
'72
85
15
0-Oct 20-22,
'72
83
17
0-Oct 23,
'72
84
16
0-Oct 27-29,
'72
84
16
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
83
17
- 2 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
2. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today,
would you vote for Richard Nixon, the Republican candidate; or
George McGovern, the Democratic candidate? (Includes Leaners)
POLLING DATE
NIXON
McGOVERN
N.O.
1972
(T) (R)
(T) (R)
(T) (R)
T-Jun 16-26
52
32
16
H-Jul 1- 6
55
35
10
G-Jul 14-17
56
37
7
O-Jul 19-20
54
54
27
27
19
19
H-Aug 2-3
57
34
9
G-Aug 5-12
57
31
12
G-Aug 26-27
64
30
6
~-Aug 29-31
63 64
28
27
9
9
Aug 29-30
63
29
8
T-Sep 5-16
62
63
32
31
6
6
H-Sep 19-21
59
31
10
G-Sep 22-25
61
33
6
O-Sep 29-
57
59
29
28
14
13
Oct 1
H-Oct 3-5
60
33
7
0-Oct 6- 8
57
59
26
25
17
16
G-Sep 29-
60
34
6
Oct 9
0-Oct 13-15
59
60
28
28
13
12
G-Oct 13-18
59
36
5
H-Oct 17-19
59
34
7
0-Oct 20-22
60
59
26
28
14
13
0-Oct 23
57
58
28
29
15
13
--
Oct 24-26
60
32
8
Oct 27-29
55
55
31
31
14
14
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
59
60
31
31
10
9
- 3 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
(If Neither or Undecided on question 2, ask 3.)
3. Would you say that you lean more toward Richard Nixon
or more toward George McGovern?
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
O-Aug 29-31, '72
59
60
23
23
9
9
(4)
(4)
(5)
(4)
(9)
(9)
O-Sep 29-
50
52
26
26
24
22
Oct 1,
'72
(7)
(7)
(3)
(2)
(10)
(9)
0-Oct 6- 8, '72
49
51
22
22
29
27
(8)
(8)
(4)
(3)
(12)
(11)
0-Oct 13-15, '72
51
52
24
24
25
24
(8)
(8)
(4)
(4)
(12)
(12)
0-Oct 20-22, '72
53
53
22
23
25
24
(7)
(6)
(4)
(5)
(11)
(11)
0-Oct 23,
'72
50
51
24
25
26
24
(7)
(7)
(4)
(4)
(11)
(11)
0-Oct 27-29, '72
48
47
26
27
26
26
(7)
(8)
(5)
(4)
(12)
(12)
0-Oct 31-
53
54
27
27
20
19
Nov 1,
'72
(6)
(6)
(4)
(4)
(10)
(9)
1 1 4
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1, 123
Registered - 971
(If Nixon on question 2 or 3, ask 4.)
4. Would you say that you are voting for Nixon or against
McGovern?
For
Against
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 31-'
Nov 1,
'72
65
65
25
26
10
9
(If McGovern on question 2 or 3, ask 5.)
5. Would you say that you are voting for McGovern or against
Nixon?
For
Against
Polling Date
McGovern
Nixon
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
49
53
37
35
14
15
- 5 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered -
971
6. Have you definitely made up your mind which candidate
you prefer for President, or is there a possibility that
you will change your mind during the campaign?
Made Up
May Change
Polling Date
Mind
Mind
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
O-Aug 29-31, '72
63
63
31
31
6
6
O-Sep 29-
Oct 1,
'72
66
67
26
26
8
7
0-Oct 6- 8, '72
63
66
24
24
13
10
0-Oct 13-15, '72
68
71
23
22
9
7
0-Oct 20-22, '72
71
72
21
21
8
7
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
75
77
17
17
8
6
6 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is
handling his job as President?
POLLING DATE
A
D
N.O.
1972
(T) (R)
(T) (R)
(T) (R)
T-Jan 3-20
54
35
11
G-Jan 7- 9
49
39
12
O-Jan 26-27
54
54
36
36
10
10
G-Feb 4- 7
53
36
11
H-Feb 8-15
55
44
1
O-Mar 3-5
59 59
28
28
13
13
G-Mar 3-5.
56
32
12
O-Mar 18-19
54
54
35 35
11 11
G-Mar 24-27
53
37
10
-Apr 27-29
52 52
'35 35
13
13
J-May 9-10
57
33
10
H-May 9-10
52
46
2
G-May 26-29
61
32
7
H-Jun 10-15
56
42
2
G-Jun 16-19
60
32
8
T-Jun 16-26
58
30
12
G-Jun 23-26
56
33
11
O-Jul 19-20
58 59
31 31
11 10
H-Aug 2-3
59
40
1
O-Aug 29-31
63
63
27
27
10
10
T-Sep 5-16
62
63
31 30
7.
7
0-Sep 29-
62 65
27 26
Oct 1
11
9
0-Oct 6- 8
58
58
28 29
14
13
0-Oct 13-15
60 60
28 27
12 13
-Oct 17-19
59
40
1
0-Oct 20-22
60
60
26 26
14
14
0-Oct 27-29
58
58
30 31
12
11
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
62 62
28 29
10
9
- 7 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is
handling the Vietnam situation?
POLLING DATE
A
D
N.O.
1972
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T) (R)
T-Jan 3-20
55
38
7
O-Jan 26-27
54
54
38
38
8
8
G-Feb
4-6
51
39
10
H-Feb 8-15
41
56
3
O-Mar 3-5
53 53
36
36
11
11
G-Apr 21-24
48
44
8
O-Apr 27-29
47
47
44
44
9
9
'ay 9-10
52
38
10
h May 9-10
37
59
4
G-May 26-29
53
38
9
H-Jun 10-15
42
55
3
T-Jun 16-26
58
35
7
O-Jul 19-20
55
56
35
35
10
9
O-Aug 29-31
59
59
33
34
8
7
T-Sep 5-16
60
61
33
32
7
7
O-Sep 29-
55
57
35
33
10
10
Oct 1
0-Oct 6-8
52
54
33
32
15
14
0-Oct 13-15
55
56
34
33
11
11
H-Oct 17-19
46
52
2
0-Oct 20-22
54
54
33
33
13
13
C ct 23
52
53
32
31
16
16
C ct 27-29
57
58
32
31
11
11
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1
58
59
31
31
11
10
- 8 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
9. In your opinion, should the U.S. enter into a ceasefire
agreement with North Vietnam even if South Vietnam President
Thieu refuses to accept the agreement, or should the U.S.
wait until an agreement can be reached that is acceptable
to South Vietnam President Thieu?
Ceasefire
Ceasefire
Polling Date
w/ Thieu
w/out Thieu
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 27-29, '72
40
39
43
45
17
16
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
39
38
38
39
23
23
10. Do you think that President Nixon should order a bombing
halt in North Vietnam while we are negotiating toward a settle-
ment or should the bombing continue until the negotiations are
completed?
Bombing
Bombing
Polling Date
Halt
Continue
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 27-29, '72
53
53
33
33
14
14
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
48
47
33
34
19
19
11. The charge has been made that President Nixon could have
made the Vietnam peace settlement long ago and that he delayed
it just to help his re-election. Do you agree or disagree?
Polling Date
Agree
Disagree
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 27-29, '72
38
38
52
52
10
10
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
34
33
52
54
14
13
- 9 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered -
971
12. Suppose that before Election Day the war in Vietnam
is ended. If this happens, would you be more likely to
vote for George McGovern, more likely to vote for Richard
Nixon, or wouldn't it make any difference in how you vote?
More Likely
More Likely
Polling Date
McGovern
Nixon
No Diff
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 13-15, '72
17
17
31
31
42
42
10
10
&
0-Oct 20-22, '72
22
21
27
27
44
45
7
7
0-Oct 27-29, '72
9
10
16
14
71
72
4
4
0-Oct 31-
Nov
1,
'72
9
10
14
13
73
73
4
4
13. Do you think George McGovern or Richard Nixon would do
the better job of keeping corruption and influence peddling
out of the Federal Government over the next four years?
Polling Date
McGovern
Nixon
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 6- 8, '72
21
21
41
42
38
37
0-Oct 20-22, '72
21
21
41
42
38
37
0-Oct 27-29, '72
25
26
41
41
34
33
0-Oct 31-
Nov
1,
'72
24
24
42
44
34
32
1 1 10
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered - 971
14. It has been charged recently that the Republican
Campaign Committee has been carrying out espionage and
sabotage efforts to discredit the Democratic candidates
and disrupt their campaigns. Do you think this charge
is true or not?
Polling Date
True
False
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 13-15, '72
32
33
40
39
28
28
0-Oct 20-22, '72
26
27
44
45
30
28
0-Oct 27-29, '72
34
35
42
42
24
23
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
34
36
36
36
30
28
15. If it is proven that the charges against the President's
re-election committee are true, will this make you less likely
to vote for President Nixon or won't it have any effect on
your vote?
Polling Date
Less Likely
No Effect
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 13-15, '72
21
21
68
69
11
10
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
22
21
70
71
8
8
- 11 -
NATIONWIDE TELEPHONE SURVEY #6
Polling Dates: Oct 31-Nov 1, '72
Respondents: Total - 1,123
Registered -
971
16. Senator McGovern has charged that the Nixon Administration
is one of the most corrupt in history. Some people have said
that this is simply a political charge by a desperate politician
who is far behind. Others agree with him and think President
Nixon needs to answer and explain these charges. Which side
do you agree with?
Political
PN Should
Polling Date
Charge
Answer
N.O.
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
(T)
(R)
0-Oct 6- 8, '72
51
53
29
29
20
18
0-Oct 20-22, '72
49
48
25
27
26
25
0-Oct 27-29, '72
45
46
33
34
22
20
0-Oct 31-
Nov 1,
'72
42
44
34
33
24
23
DEMOGRAPHICS
NIXON - MC GOVERN TRIAL HEAT
A.
0-OCT
B.
C-OCT
20-22
Registered Voters
C.
0-OCT
13-15
D.
0-CCT
6-8
NIXON
MC
GOVERN
UNDECIDED
DIF
A
B
C
D
DIF
A
B
C
D
DIF
A
B
C
D
TOTAL PUBLIC
4-
55
59
60
59
3
31
28
28
25
1
14
13
12
16
MEN
4-
56
60
65
62
4
}
28
26
24
ON
12
12
9
14
WOMEN
52
58
56
56
4
30
16
14
14
17
18-20 YEARS OF AGE
21-
40
61
56
44
26
39
43
5-
5
10
5
13
21-29 YEARS
ONNNE
54
56
53
58
3
ANWWER
WNNWN
6
43
34
8
4
8
30-49 YEARS
60
62
60
7
26
24
0
14
14
13
16
50 YEARS AND OVER
57
59
61
61
0
4
18
14
18-24 YEARS
10
47
57
49
49
13
5
46
41
3
5
8
10
8TH GRADE OR LESS
9-
48
57
51
HIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE
4
HICH SCHOOL GRADUATE
57
63
morn
}
7
15
14
22
61
www.s
NOUIO
WNWN
WNNW
orwer
JUING
2
20
6
on
13
13
14
SOME COLLEGE
59
61
62
62
32
33
30
27
9
6
8
11
UNION FAMILIES
43
51
49
NONUNION FAMILIES
1-
65
61
0.0
23
1
16
13
17
61
62
26
24
12
11
15
WHITE
NONWHITE
10
11
61
64
66
63
25
26
31
12
26
}
45
24
213
UIN
12
12
10
16
I
earch Corporation
18
20
16
PROTESTANT
2-
61
63
JEWISH
vivio
65
CATHOLIC
into
64
50
61
own
4
2-
VININ
23
22
NHO
14
12
14
34
16
15
17
40
42
59
32
52
50
41
37
8
8
0
31
ON NEW JERSEY
UNDER $5,000 INCOME
46
55
47
47
NWG
34
62
5
29
31
32
4
20
16
22
21
$5,000 $15,000
52
4
13
9
14
OVER $15,000
3
66
63
66
75
27
13
7
12
7
12
REGISTERED
4-
55
or
59
60
59
0
ow
31
28
28
25
NOT REGISTERED
0
0
ON
14
13
12
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
or
0
REPUBLICAN
0
90
90
94
90
6
5
3
DEMOCRAT
37
40
11
4
5
3
7
42
61
525
- STUT-ING
26
26
maorim
42
WNWWNW
INVIWED
13
}
17
INDEPENDENT
60
61
64
0
LEAN REPUBLICAN
90
95
4
5
LEAN DEMOCRAT
33
OTHER INDEPENDENTS
50
57
52
50
om
5'1
18
13
13
}
1
10
4
25
37
CONSERVATIVE
1
71
70
84
76
18
13
9
11
LIBERAL
12-
34
0
o
71
71
70
69
3
WINNUT
oviwtwn
10
IN BETWEEN
57
60
58
1
}
WONVIOW
17
LEAN CONSERVATIVE
12
LEAN LIBERAL
43
47
44
44
N-T-
16
1
WNOWOUT
2
OTHER INBETWEEN
10-
44
54
54
57
10
23
23
17
0
NIXON VOTERS
79
83
87
3
9
9
7
1
9
8
4
8
HUMPHREY VOTERS
sminn
1 :
21
GIVING
3
WALLACE VOTERS
61
HONS
waswn
ONCO
NONVOTERS
12-
45
57
49
13
wwo
60
who
60
52
16
43
30
44
13
4
13
EAST
57
66
4
34
13
17
MIDWEST
SOUTH
JOHN
111
SACE
momw
NUNN
orsin
required
NUME
WNW
or
WNNW
ONNO
WNWN
NUING
NNNN
5000
WNOO
I
Nurow
16
14
16
13
WEST
6
57
3
9
13
C110
arch Corporation
N, "JERSEY
NIXON-Mc VERN DEMOGRAPHICS
1/6-2018-11
6-9/32
0-10/2018
0-10/27-29
wa-9/5-16
MCGOVERN
0-10/27-29
14-8/28-9/10
6-9/22-25 11-9/19-21 W3-9/5-16
-0-10/27-29 0-10/20-22 6-10/13:18
NATIONAL
63
62
59
61
59
59
55
29
32
31
33
36
28
31
8
6
10
6
5
13
14
SEX
Male
63
61
58
58
56
60
56
29
33
32
36
37
28
32
8
6
10
6
7
12
12
Female
63
64
59
58
62
58
52
29
31
30
30
35
28
32
8
6
11
6
3
14
16
AGE
18-24
47
52
44
52
55
57
47
47
44
50
46
43
35
48
6
4
6
2
2
8
5
25-49
59
50
64
57
60
53
34
41
29
35
26
33
7
9
6
8
14
14
50+
65
61
61
62
63
59
57
26
29
25
31
33
27
25
9
10
14
7
4
14
18
EDUCATION
8th Grade
56
56
52
51
52
57
48
36
38
34
41
40
28
30
8
7
14
8
8
15
22
High School
66
67
60
65
61
63
57
26
26
29
30
34
24
30
8
7
11
5
5
13
13
College
63
66
59
61
60
61
59
31
32
33
35
37
33
32
6
3
8
4
3
6
9
UNION
56
56
55
52
51
43
34
39
34
42
33
42
10
5
11
6
16
15
RACE
White
67
67
64
67
64
64
61
25
26
26
28
31
24
26
8
7
10
5
5
12
13
Black
22
25
13
10
21
25
15
67
74
75
82
75
55
67
11
2
12
8
4
20
18
RELIGION
Catholic
62
63
58
52
59
56
50
27
31
31
40
37
29
34
11
6
11
8
4
15
16
Protestant
74
66
71
70
63
63
61
20
29
20
26
33
25
25
6
5
9
4
4
12
14
Jewish
49
32
37
42
40
43
56
39
50
52
8
15
24
8
8
INCOME
Under $5,000
56
58
53
55
46
36
35
37
29
34
8
8
10
16
20
$5-9,999
58
59
54
32
35
33
10
6
13
52
$10-14,999
59
32
35
9
13
70
65
64
23
29
27
7
6
9
$15,000 +
71
72
66
63
66
24
25
27
25
27
5
4
7
12
7
POLITICS
Republican
93
89
95
93
90
90
5
7
4
7
5
6
2
4
1
*
5
4
Democrat
43
41
32
33
37
33
47
48
61
61
47
52
10
11
7
6
16
15
REGION
East
60
61
56
57
57
53
34
30
34
38
30
34
6
9
10
5
13
13
Midwest
64
58
53
57
57
48
29
38
34
40
27
36
7
4
13
3
16
16
South
70
67
70
70
66
65
60
19
27
22
24
29
22
25
11
7
8
6
5
13
15
West
58
60
59
55
52
58
34
35
32
35
39
30
8
4
9
10
9
12
* Less than 1%
NIXON-' GOVERN DEMOGRAPHICS
H-8128-9/1
IXO
0-10/20-22
11-9/19-21
MCGOVERN
W3-9/5-16
11-9/19-21
6-9/22-25
6-10/13-18
-10/20-22
NATIONAL
63
62
59
61
59
59
29
32
31
33
36
28
8
6
10
6
5
13
SEX
Male
63
61
58
58
56
60
29
33
32
36
37
28
8
6
10
6
7
12
Female
63
64
59
58
62
58
29
31
30
30
35
28
8
6
11
6
3
14
AGE
18-24
47
52
44
52
55
57
47
44
50
46
43
35
6
4
6
2
2
8
25-49
59
50
64
57
60
34
41
29
35
26
7
9
6
8
14
50+
65
61
61
62
63
59
26
29
25
31
33
27
9
10
14
7
4
14
EDUCATION
8th Grade
56
56
52
51
52
57
36
38
34
41
40
28
8
7
14
8
8
15
High School
66
67
60
65
61
63
26
26
29
30
34
24
8
7
11
5
5
13
College
63
66
59
61
60
61
31
32
33
35
37
33
6
3
8
4
3
6
UNION
56
56
55
52
51
34
39
34
42
33
10
5
11
6
16
RACE
White
67
67
64
67
64
64
25
26
26
28
31
24
8
7
10
5
5
12
Black
22
25
13
10
21
25
67
74
75
82
75
55
11
2
12
8
4
20
RELIGION
Catholic
62
63
58
52
59
56
27
31
31
40
37
29
11
6
11
8
4
15
Protestant
74
66
71
70
63
63
20
29
20
26
33
25
6
5
9
4
4
12
Jewish
49
32
37
42
43
56
39
50
8
15
24
8
INCOME
Under $5,000
56
58
53
55
36
35
37
29
8
8
10
16
$5-9,999
58
59
54
32
35
33
10
6
13
$10-14,999
59
32
9
70
65
64
23
29
27
7
6
9
$15,000 +
71
72
66
63
24
25
27
25
5
4
7
12
POLITICS
Republican
93
89
95
93
90
5
7
4
7
5
2
4
1
*
5
Democrat
43
41
32
33
37
47
48
61
61
47
10
11
7
6
16
REGION
East
60
61
56
57
57
34
30
34
38
30
6
9
10
5
13
Midwest
64
58
53
57
57
29
38
34
40
27
7
4
13
3
16
South
70
67
70
70
66
65
19
27
22
24
29
22
11
7
8
6
5
13
West
58
60
59
55
52
34
35
32
35
39
8
4
9
10
9
* Less than 1%
NIXON-McGOVERN TRIAL HEAT
A.
0-Oct 13-15
B.
0-Oct
6-8
Registered Voters Only
C.
0-Sep 29-Oct 1
NIXON
McGOVERN
UNDECIDED
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
TOTAL PUBLIC
60
59
59
28
25
28
12
16
13
Men
65
62
65
26
24
25
9
14
10
Women
56
56
53
30
27
32
14
17
15
18-20
56
44
56
39
43
40
5
13
4
21-29
53
58
60
43
34
34
4
8
6
30-49
62
60
63
25
24
22
13
16
15
50+
61
61
57
24
20
30
15
19
13
18-24
49
49
55
46
41
40
5
10
5
8th gr or less
51
53
56
35
25
29
14
22
15
High school inc
62
58
55
23
22
34
15
20
11
High school grad
63
61
61
26
25
24
11
14
15
Some college
62
62
63
30
27
30
8
11
7
Union families
49
55
58
38
28
31
13
17
11
Non-Union Families
65
61
60
24
24
27
11
15
13
White
66
63
64
24
21
25
10
16
11
Non-White
26
31
24
57
53
52
17
16
24
Protestant
65
64
66
23
22
20
12
14
14
Catholic
55
61
52
34
22
37
11
17
11
wish
59
32
32
41
37
51
0
31
17
Under $5,000
47
47
44
31
32
44
22
21
12
$5-15,000
62
58
64
31
28
23
7
14
13
$15,000 +
66
75
67
27
13
28
7
12
5
Republican
94
90
91
3
3
4
3
7
5
Democrat
40
42
37
49
41
47
11
17
16
Independent
61
64
63
26
23
26
13
13
11
Lean Rep
85
92
89
6
3
7
9
5
4
Lean Dem
27
28
34
62
62
58
11
10
8
Other Inds
52
50
55
13
13
17
35
37
28
Conservative
84
76
79
11
13
15
5
11
6
Liberal
39
42
30
53
46
60
8
12
10
In Between
60
58
60
27
25
26
13
17
14
Lean Cons
70
69
68
20
15
20
10
16
12
Lean Lib
47
44
50
41
44
39
12
12
11
Other In Bet
54
57
56
23
17
22
23
26
22
Nixon Voters
87
85
81
9
7
12
4
8
7
Humphrey Voters
24
25
27
60
52
57
16
23
16
Wallace Voters
63
61
59
18
25
16
19
14
25
Nonvoters
49
43
56
37
44
35
14
13
9
East
66
57
52
25
26
36
9
17
12
Midwest
54
55
58
32
29
30
14
16
12
South
64
67
69
25
20
17
11
13
14
:st
55
57
54
32
25
33
13
18
13
DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY RICHARD NIXON IS HANDLING
HIS JOB AS PRESIDENT?
A.
0-Oct 13-15
B.
0-Oct
6- 8
C.
0-Sep 29-Oct 1
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
TOTAL PUBLIC
60
58
62
28
28
27
12
14
11
Men
60
62
65
30
27
27
10
11
8
Women
59
55
60
27
29
27
14
16
13
18-20
51
54
60
38
34
26
11
12
14
21-29
48
52
61
38
35
31
14
13
8
30-49
64
63
63
24
23
25
12
14
12
50+
63
57
63
25
28
27
12
15
10
18-24
47
51
57
41
39
30
12
10
13
8th gr or less
57
51
57
27
31
26
16
18
17
High school inc
55
60
66
30
24
24
15
16
10
High school grad
65
62
65
26
26
28
9
12
7
Some college
59
58
62
30
31
28
11
11
10
Union families
53
54
59
36
32
32
11
14
9
Non-Union families
63
60
64
25
26
25
13
14
11
White
63
62
65
25
25
25
12
13
10
Non-White
39
31
45
49
47
39
12
22
16
Protestant
65
63
69
26
25
21
11
12
10
Catholic
57
60
56
29
27
32
14
13
12
wish
41
29
39
47
50
45
12
21
16
Under $5,000
56
52
54
31
36
32
13
12
14
$5-15,000
60
56
65
29
29
27
11
15
8
$15,000 +
65
70
65
27
20
24
8
10
11
Registered
60
58
65
27
29
26
13
13
9
Not Registered
59
59
51
32
23
31
9
18
1.8
Republican
92
87
90
4
7
6
4
6
4
Democrat
43
42
45
45
42
43
12
16
12
Independent
60
59
66
28
28
23
12
13
11
Lean Rep
79
83
85
9
9
9
12
8
6
Lean Dem
36
27
41
51
62
42
13
11
17
Other Inds
51
54
59
23
21
20
26
25
21
Conservative
81
70
74
13
19
17
6
11
9
Liberal
38
43
35
52
46
54
10
11
11
In Between
62
59
65
25
28
25
13
13
10
Lean Cons
72
69
77
21
21
18
7
10
5
Lean Lib
46
43
55
37
44
35
17
13
10
Other in Bet
55
57
61
23
19
22
22
24
17
Nixon Voters
80
79
86
12
12
9
8
9
5
Humphrey Voters
32
28
34
52
52
55
16
20
11
Wallace Voters
76
62
56
21
34
32
3
4
12
Nonvoters
52
48
54
36
37
31
12
15
15
st
58
57
60
29
30
30
13
13
10
dwest
54
56
58
30
29
30
16
15
12
South
67
62
69
23
25
19
10
13
12
West
57
56
62
33
29
32
10
15
6
QUESTION 4 & 5
69072
AUGUST 29-31, 1972 974
INTERVIEWS
NIXON-POGOVERN TRIAL HEAT
SEPT 29 - OCT 1, 1972
980 INTERVIEWS
PERCENTAGE
BASE
TOTAL
TOTAL
UNWTC WTD
NIXON
MCGOVERN
UNDECIDED
TOTAL PUBLIC
974 10651
63
57
-6
28
29
+1
9
MEN
484
5042
65
61-4
61
28
26
7
WOMEN
490 5609
-62
54
8
26
30
+4
12
18-20 YEARS OF AGE
52
847
66
55
55-11
33
36
+3
1
21-29 YEARS
218
1952
57
57
36
36
7
30-49 YEARS
402
3815
64
63
26
20
50 YEARS AND OVER
293
380)
64
54
24
In
10
31
r
12
18-24 YEARS
154
1649
61
54
37
36
2
8TH GRADE CR LESS
91
2457
51
53
+2
29
28
20
RIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE
120
1846
60
51
8
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
335
3787
68
59
7
SOME COLLEGE
415
2444
68
64
29
-y
26
6
UNION FAMILIES
269
3147
59
55
NONUNION FAMILIES
705
7504
65
:-
8
58
27
27
13
8
WHITE
841
9362
68
62
-6
23
25
9
NONWHITE
126
1248
24
25
+1
61
54
15
PROTESTANT
579
6428
70
64
-6
22
22
8
CATHOLIC
219
2506
60
50
-10
6
30
+13
14
JEWISH
31
297
37
35
54
44
-10
9
UNDER 5,000 INCOME
130
2084
51
44
-7
41
43
+2
8
$5,000 $15,000
510
5551
5
61
25
24
10
OVER $15,000
236
1814
71
67
24
27
-y
+3
5
NOW REGISTERED
844
8920
64
59
28
9
FILL REGISTER
89
1146
63
REGISTERED CR WILL REGISTER
933
10066
63
29
cow
WON' REGISTER
41
585
53
18
NOT REGISTERED
49
29
29
REPUBLICAN
225
2468
96
90
-6
2
6
+4
2
DEMOCRAT
344
3937
41
35
48
48
11
INCEPENDENT
308
3198
63
63
22
2
+3
10
LEAN REPUBLICAN
169
1774
85
ws
?
2
LEAN DEMOCRAT
103
1088
27 36
62
54
11
OTHER INDEPENDENTS
85
930
53
54
13
14
34
CONSERVATIVE
228
2372
83
79
11
15
+4
6
LIBERAL
181
1622
45
28
44
+18
11
IN BETWEEN
468
5148
63
58
29
8
LEAN CONSERVATIVE
235 2624
70 67
21
9
LEAN LIBERAL
159
1712
51
42
7
OTHER INBETWEEN
171
2321
56
53
30
22
14
NIXON VOTERS
339
4081
89
80
is
7
12
4
PUMPAREY VOTERS
210
2187
36
27
52
12
WALLACE VOTERS
60
759
65
59
-6
26
15
9
NONVOTERS
250
2911
52
52
37
33
11
EAST
245
2712
54
-4
58
33
36
9
MICWEST
283
2982
63
54
-9
30
10
SOUTH
307
3201
67
67
"
24
19
9
WEST
138
1756
61
51
-10
28
33
+
11
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION
0005
1
=
=
-8
t4
12
drops:
gains
21-29
=
women
30-49
-1
9-
5
18-20
-11+3 14
+2
-1
3
ova50
-10 +7 17
8th grade
-9 15 14
blacks
+1
-7
8
High sche
-2
-10
8
Catholic
to +13 23
Jaurit
liberal
-17 +18 35
South
=
-5
midwert
-9 +3 12
-10 +515
West
AUGUST 29-31, 1972
974
INTERVIEWS
SEPT 29 - OCT 1, 1972
980 INTERVIEWS
NIXON>MC GOVERN TRIAL HEAT
NIXON
LEAN NIXON
MCGCVERN
9/24-10/15
LEAN NCGOVERN
5. UNDECIDED
PERCENTAGE
BASE
UNWTD
WTD
8/29-31
9/29-10/1
3/29-31
9/29-10/1
4.
5.
59
50
4
7
23
26
5
3
9
14
TOTAL PUBLIC
974
980
1065
1049
100
7
57
2
4
24
MEN
484
469
504
521
59
44
wa
10
NN
+6
:
WN
13
21
12
16
100
WOMEN
490
511
561
528
100
46
9
32
+
1
7
9
18-20 YEARS OF AGE
52
59
45
85
80
WNHWW
moros
7
100
21-29 YEARS
195
193
54
49
218
209
NWWNW
10
17
100
30-49 YEARS
402
382
60
54
375
370
12
15
100
50 YEARS AND OVER
346
388
59
49
293
401
45
33
2
10
100
18-24 YEARS
154
121
165
147
56
100
20
19
BTH GRADE CR LESS
91
246
114
227
45
45
HIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE
120
185
188
57
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
116
338
379
INIVER
swwa
UNDOO
NNM
NNWN
HOMN
8
2
100
7
100
3
6
7
100
346
393
SOME COLLEGE
415
244
64
4
393
229
100
269
315
269
7m
8
NN
56
UNION FAMILIES
322
52
23
64
42
13
8
100
NONUNION FAMILIES
705
711
750
52
727
100
7:0
18
5
1
13
WHITE
841
936
64
55
849
905
6
56
15
21
100
NONWHITE
126
125
18
19
118
130
100
PROTESTANT
65
56
winm
nno
one
17
19
8
14
579
643
562
601
SMN
mmo
14
11
100
CATHOLIC
219
251
239
267
44
9
21
100
JEWISH
31
30
37
33
38
30
100
11
31
40
10
8
UNDER $5,000 INCOME
130
208
48
$5,000 $15,000
143
193
more
6
2
555
60
nNy
10
100
510
5
OVER $15,000
482
529
ICC
236
181
67
61
0
4
4
6
100
254
206
26
2
9
13
NO'
EGISTERED
844
842
892
874
60
52
4
7
hl
REGISTER
89
115
NNN
59
SUIVID
100
100
REC TERED CR WILL REGISTER
933
100/
WON'T REGISTER
9
29
100
41
59
49
100
NOT REGISTERED
135
172,
41
8
25
4
22
100
REPUBLICAN
243
225
247
250
93
4
1
5
1
2
100
4
DEMOCRAT
359
344
407
AN-VINO
Nowwood
MAMMNS
7
39
100
394
34
44
INCEPENDENT
65
10
17
287
308
320
298
18
23
12
100
LEAN REPUBLICAN
134
169
177
143
92
6
100
LEAN DEMOCRAT
97
103
109
99
25
100
OTHER INDEPENDENTS
110
85
93
113
49
12
12
12
2
34
32
100
CONSERVATIVE
216
228
239
211
77
10
6
100
2
6
LIBERAL
176
162
40
IN BETWEEN
476
468
515
534
59
aworvis
envent
VOINWO
8
11
100
NWHNW
com
I
WOMNNIN
100
LEAN CONSERVATIVE
220
235
262
246
60
100
66
LEAN LIBERAL
142
159
171
151
49
43
100
34
10
OTHER INDETWEEN
226
171
232
284
52
46
19
14
100
NIXON VOTERS
425
389
408
431
85
73
10
4
100
HUMPHREY VOTERS
233
210
219
235
21
WALLACE VCTERS
61
60
76
65
58
W-VIA
5
250
WND
NEWS
vision
12
208
11
ocen
100
54
9
100
NONVOTERS
291
260
49
44
4
100
246
100
EAST
254
271
258
55
52
CONVIU
28
NOOD
NNNN
9
10
MIDWEST
266
283
298
234
46
SOUTH
300
307
320
337
65
138
NONM
1
8
N-NW
owner
10
100
6
9
100
4
WEST
160
176
170
53
20
11
16
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION
0002
12
deops:
women
-15
+6
21
gains:
30-49
-6
-6
=
18-20
-13
11
14
styrade
=
+5
-5
50 +
-/0
+11
21
nohacks
+1
-3
4
high shool
-15
t4
19
12
jewish
-4
-8
12
non Union
to
T2
Catholic
-10
+13
23
- under
-15
+9
24
- and.
-12
5
17
liberal
-15
120
35
-/2
+3
15
nidwest
Wat
-10 17 17
inc
Third Wave
National
September 5-16, 1972
1011 Interviews
V-4
B-1
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Number
Total 100%
62 (+10)
32
(0)
6 (-10)
1011
Age
18-24 years
52 (+10)
44
(-6)
4 (-4)
158
25-34 years
64 (+18)
33
(-7)
3 (-11)
198
35-44 years
58 (-1)
36 (+10)
6 (-9)
178
45-54 years
66 (+21)
27
(-1)
7 (-20)
150
55-64 years
61
(+4)
29
(-3)
10 (-1)
144
65 years +
68
(+5)
25
(+8)
6 (-14)
183
Education
Less than high school
56
(+8)
38
(+9)
7 (-16)
285
High school graduate
67 (+1.1)
26
(-5)
7 (-6)
359
College
66 (+14)
32
(-5)
3 (-8)
364
Religion
Catholic
63 (+15)
31
(-3)
6 (-12)
272
Protestant
66
(+9)
29
(+1)
5 (-10)
608
Jewish
32
(+7)
56 (+10)
15 (-14)
31
Other
49 (+13)
44
(-7)
7 (-6)
82
Race
White
67 (+11)
26
(-2)
7 (-9)
870
Black
25 (+1)
74 (+9)
2 (-9)
106
Spanish American
50 (+42)
.42 (-16)
8 (-26)
16
Union
Yes
56 (+13)
39
(-1)
5 (-12)
321
No
66
(+8)
29
(+2)
6 (-9)
660
Income
Under $5,000
58 (+15)
35
(+3)
8 (-17)
180
$5,000-9,999
59 (+13)
35
(-4)
6 (-9)
327
$10,000-14,999
65 (+12)
29
(-2)
6 (-10)
223
$15,000 +
72 (+12)
25
(-5)
4 (-6)
202
Sex
Male
61 (+5)
33
(+5)
6 (-10)
501
Female
64 (+17)
31
(-5)
6 (-11)
510
Geographic (Political)
East
61 (+10)
30
(-6)
9 (-4)
250
Midwest
58 (+11)
38
(+2)
4 (-13)
282
South
67 (+9)
27
(+3)
7 (-11)
331
West
60 (+14)
35
(-2)
4 (-13)
148
Special Ballot
Definitely Nixon
99
1
0
424
Probably Nixon
99
0
1
122
Undecided/Lean to
Nixon
90
2
8
61
Completely Undecided
38
23
40
55
Undecided/Lean to
McGovern
1
94
5
57
Probably McGovern
4
93
3
79
Definitely McGovern
4
96
0
175
HARRIS SURVEY
September 22, 1972
8/2 - 8/3
8/28 9/1
9/19 9/21
N
McG
N
McG
NS
N
McG
NS
Nationwide
57 34
63 29
8 to 11
59 31
10 6
East
58 25 33
60
2634
6
+
/
56 2234
10 -y
Midwest
53 27 36
64
3529
7
+
8
53 19 34
13
-16
South
65 38 27
70
51 19
11
+13
70
22
8
West
55 16 39
58
24 34
8
+ 8
59 27 32
9+3
Deep South
68
26
68
20
12
71
19
10
Border States
62
29
69
22
9
66
26
8
Cities
50
42
53
39
8
43
44
13
Suburbs
57
33
68
25
7
64
26
10
Towns
62
31
67
24
9
66
26
8
Rural
62
28
68
24
8
68
22
10
18-24 year olds
47 = 47
6
44 - 6 50
6
25-49 year olds
59
25
34
7
50 9 41
9
18-29 year olds53
43
52
42
6
47
45
8
30-49 year old58
34
68
25
7
63
29
8
50+
59
28
65
26
9
61
36
25
14
8th Grade
52
36
56
36
8
52
34
14
High School
58
31
66
26
'8
60
29
11
College
58
37
63
31
6
59
33
8
Union
49
40
56
34
10
55
34
11
Men
58
33
63
29
8
58
32
10
Women
56
35
63
29
8
59
30
11
White
62
29
67
25
8
64
26
10
Black
16
77
22
67
11
13
75
12
Under $5,000
52
39
56
36
8
53
37
10
$5,000 $9, 900 55
35
58
32
10
54
33
13
$10, 000-$14, 900 58
31
70
23
7
64
27
9
$15, 000+
65
30
71
24
5
66
27
7
Republicans
87
10
93
5
2
89
7
4
Democrats
38
53
43
47
10
41
48
11
Independents
60
25
68
22
10
66
26
12
White Catholics 55
33
62
27
11
58
31
11
WASP
68
24
74
20
6
71
20
9
Jewish
46
44
49
43
8
37
39
24
Irish
59
31
10
54
33
13
Italian
65
25
10
52
31
17
N Nixon
McG McGovern
NS Not Sure
October 25, 1972
1972 ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST
ESTIMATED
ELECTORAL
NIXON
VOTE
PERCENTAGE
TOTALS
STATES
66.1 and over
( 9) Alabama
( 7) Mississippi
(17) Florida
(5) Nebraska
119
(12) Georgia
(13) North Carolina
( 7) Kansas
( 8) South Carolina
(9) Kentucky
(10) Tennessee
(10) Louisiana
(12) Virginia
61.1 66.0
( 6) Arizona
( 3) North Dakota
( 6) Arkansas
(8) Oklahoma
51
( 4) Idaho
( 4) Utah
(13) Indiana
( 3) Vermont
( 4) New Hampshire
56.1 61.0
( 7) Colorado
(4) Montana
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
( 3) Delaware
(4) New Mexico
192
(26) Illinois
(25) Ohio
( 8) Iowa
( 6) Oregon
( 4) Maine
(27) Pennsylvania
(10) Maryland
(26) Texas
(10) Minnesota
( 6) West Virginia
(12) Missouri
( 3) Wyoming
51.1 - 56.0
( 3) Alaska
(17) New Jersey
127.
(45) California
(41) New York
(21) Michigan
Less than 51
7 3) District of Columbia
( 4) Rhode Island
49
( 4) Hawaii
(4) South Dakota
(14) Massachusetts
(9) Washington
(11) Wisconsin
= State has moved up since October 12 classification
= State has moved down since October 12 classification
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST AS OF OCTOBER 25, 1972
NIXON
McGOVERN
( 9) Alabama
( 5) Nebraska
( 6) Arizona
(4) New Hampshire
( 6) Arkansas
(13) North Carolina
(17) Florida
( 3) North Dakota
SAFE
(12) Georgia
(8) Oklahoma
( 4) Idaho
( 8) South Carolina
(13) Indiana
(10) Tennessee
( 7) Kansas
( 4) Utah
(9) Kentucky
( 3) Vermont
(10) Louisiana
(12) Virginia
( 7) Mississippi
(170)
( 7) Colorado
( 4) Montana
( 3) District of
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
Columbia
( 3) Delaware
(4) New Mexico
FAIRLY
(26) Illinois
(25) Ohio
SAFE
( 8) Iowa
( 6) Oregon
(4) Maine
(27) Pennsylvania
(10) Maryland
(26) Texas
(10) Minnesota
( 6) West Virginia
(12) Missouri
( 3) Wyoming
(192)
( 3)
( 3) Alaska
(17) New Jersey
(14) Massachusetts
CLOSE
(45) California
(41) New York
(4) Rhode Island
X
( 4) Hawaii
( 9) Washington
(140)
(4) South Dakota
(21) Michigan
(11) Wisconsin
( 33)
TOTALS
502
36
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
Prob.
Lean
Sure
Sure Nixon
Probable Nixon
Lean Nixon
Toss Up
McGovern
McGovern
McGovern
Alabama
9
California
45
Hawaii
4
NONE
NONE
Mass.
14
D.C.
Alaska
3
Conn.
8 Michigan
21
Arizona
6
Illinois
26
Minnesota
10
Arkansas
6
New Jersey
17
Oregon
6
Colorado
7
New York
41
S. Dakota
4
Delaware
3
Washington
9
Florida
17
W. Virginia 6
Georgia
12
Wisconsin 11
Idaho
4
Rhd. Island 4
Indiana
13
Iowa
8
Kansas
7
Kentucky
9
Louisiana
10
Maine
4
Maryland
10
Mississippi
7
Missouri
12
Montana
4
Nebraska
5
Nevada
3
New Hamp.
4
New Mexico
4
N. Carolina
13
N. Dakota
3
Ohio
25
Oklahoma
8
Penna.
27
S. Carolina
8
Tennessee
10
Texas
26
Utah
4
Vermont
3
Virginia
12
Wyoming
3
Electoral
Vote
Total
309
137
75
14
3
WHSF: SMOF
H. R. HALDEMAN
-
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
64 LBJ plurality= 15,949,707
LBJ =43,126,506 =
BG 227,176,799
# voting= 70, 303, 305
72
#. voting= 77,200,000
but estimate
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
R M. TEETER
The results of the CBS election day survey by democraphic groups are:
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Whites
66
32
2
Blacks
19
80
1
18-24 year olds
48
50
2
Males
63
35
2
Females
60
38
2
Blue Collar Workers
57
40
3
White Collar Workers
66
33
1
Union Households
51
46
3
Catholics
56
43
1
1968 Humphrey Voters
21
77
2
Democrats
37
62
1.
Wallace Voters
75
22
3
PRESIDENTIAL TABLE BY UPI 2:09 P.M. EST
0/0 OF
ELEC TREND
STATE PCTS
NIXON-0/0
MOGOVERN-0/0
SCHMITZ-0/0
GOP
DEM
AIP
ALA
91
684,051-76-E
210,584-23
12,257-1
9
0
0
ALASKA
72
41,809-59-E
24,362-34
5,354-7
3
0
0
ARIZ
96
375,888-65-E
184,615-32
20,144-3
6
0
0
ARK
96
426,060-70-E
190,404-30
6
0
0
CALIF
99
4,502,130-55-E3,
471,712-43
227,845-2
45
0
0
COLO
96
563,688-63-E
316,865-36
16,507-1
7
0
0
CONN
95
767,830-60-E
509,544-39
22,020-1
8
0
0
DEL
100
139,796-60-E
91,907-39
2,615-1
3
0
0
DC
100
29,697-21
109,974-79-E
0
3
0
FLA
100
1,752,230-72-E
690,546-28
17
0
0
GEO
87
763,026-75-E
256,796-25
12
0
0
HAW
100
167,414-63-E
100,617-37
A
0
0
IDA
94
181,313-65-E
74,863-26
26,064-9
4
0
0
ILL
-
97
2,742,106-60-E
860,397-40
26
0
0
IND
100
1,397,748-67-E
703,202-33
13
0
0
IOWA
99
701,466-58-E
492,372-41
21,655-1
8
0
0
KANS
99
604,842-68-E
264,557-30
20,796-2
7
0
0
KY
100
670,937-64-E
369,082-35
17,175-1
9
0
0
LA
92
701,455-66-E
314,309-30
52,533-4
10
0
0
MAINE
99
251,287-61-E
160,833-39
4
0
0
MAR
100
795,358-62-E
486,195-37
18,483-1
10
0
0
MASS
100
1,104,310-45
1,323,843-55-E
0
14
0
MICH
93
1,845,361-57-E
,381,232-42
59,346-1
21
0
0
MINN
97
855,599-52-E
772,981-47
29,880-1
10
0
0
MISSI
99
498,876-79-E
125,945-20
11,650-1
7
0
0
MO
99
1,125,256-63-E
678,660-37
12
0
0
MONT
98
176,958-58-E
115,905-38
13,143-4
4
0
0
NEBR
100
383,332-71-E
162,365-29
5
0
0
NEV
98
114,339-64-E
64,801-36
3
0
0
NHAMP
99
212,212-65-E
115,474-34
3,322-1
4
0
0
NJER
97
1,765,791-63-E
055,183-37
23,464-0
17
0
0
NMEX
98
230,699-62-E
137,800-36
8,623-2
4
0
0
NYORK
99 4,151,415-60-E2,884,812=40
41
0
0
NCAR
99
1,060,713-70=E
435,332-29
24,512-1
13
0
0
NDAK
90
159,390-63-E
91,162-36
4,984-1
3
0
0
OHIO - -
96 2,360,644-60-E ,523,126-39
75,837-1
25
0
0
OKLA
100
745,910-74-E
243,338-24
22,888-2
8
0
0
ORE
100
483,229-53-E
390,867-42
46,104-5
6
0
0
PENN
100
2,703,975-60-E1,
788,034-39
67,255-1
27
0
0
RI
100
208,482-53-E
184,999-47
4
0
0
SOCAR
97
464,007-71-E
186,910-28
9,869-1
8
0
0
SODAK
98
160,258-54-E
138,709-46
4
0
0
TENN
100
812,484-68-E
355,817-30
30,256-2
10
0
0
TEX
89
2,019,680-67-E
032,160-33
26
0
0
UTAH
99
315,195-68-E
122,466-26
28,187-6
4
0
0
VT
97
113,916-63-E
66,419-37
3
0
0
VIR
99
976,335-69-E
436,067-30
19,107-1
12
0
0
WASH
93
673,028-57-E
471,218-39
48,499-4
9
0
0
WVA
94
452,009-64-E
261,859-36
6
0
0
WIS
100
986,751-54-E
805,726-44
47,456-2
11
0
0
WYO
99
100,222-70-E
44,261-30
3
0
0
TOTAL
45,520,507-61
28,281,207-38
1,037,830-1
521
17
0
SPOCK PEOPLES PTY-73,037-0 TOTAL ALL STATES,ELECTORAL TREND-NONE
GOVERNORS TABLE BY UPI 2:08 P.M. EST
0/0 OF
STATE PCTS REPUBLICAN-0/0 DEMOCRAT-0/0 OTHERS-0/0 OTHERS-0/0
ARK
96
BLAYLOCK
BUMPERS-I-E
145,305-24
454,842-76
DEL
100
PETERSON-I
TRIBBITT -E
LYNDALL
109,348-48
116,689-52
1,604-0
ILL
98
OGILVIE-I
WALKER -E
2,252,121-49
2,313,546-51
IND
100
BOWEN -E
WELSH
HURLEY
CAMPBELL
1,193,631-57
893,348-43
6,142-0
4,785-0
IOWA
99
RAY-I-E
FRNZNBRG
DILLEY
701,996-59
484,872-40
14,824-1
KANS
99
KAY
DOCKING-I-E
331,501-37
557,831-63
MO
99
BOND -E
DOWD
1,001,165-56
815,708-44
MONT
98
SMITH
JUDGE -E
140,543-45
166,080-55
NHAMP
99
THOMSON -E
CROWLEY
MCLANE
133,990-42
124,140-39
62,829-19
NCAR
99
HOLSHOSR -E
BOWLES
PETTYJHN
755,880-52
716,578-48
8,093-0
NDAK
90
LARSEN
LINK -E
125,828-49
130,740-51
RI
100
DESIMONE
NOEL -E
182,943-46
208,360-54
SODAK
99
THOMPSON
KNEIP-I-E
119,273-39
179,232-61
TEX
89
GROVER
BRISCOE -E
MUNIZ
1,365,785-45
1,435,443-49
187,601-6
UTAH
99
STRIKE
RAMPTON-I-E
141,416-30
323,692-70
VT
99
HACKETT
SALMON -E SANDERS
79,431-43
101,281-56
2,094-1
WASH
93
EVANS-I-E
ROSELINI
599,458-54
524,474-46
WVA
94
MOORE-I-E ROCKFELR
396,601-55
329,397-45
(I INDICATES INCUMBENT)
CE INDICATES ELECTED)
GOVERNORS TABLE BY UPI 9:15 A.M. EST
0/0 OF
STATE PCTS REPUBLICAN-0/0 DEMOCRAT-0/0 OTHERS-0/0 OTHERS-0/0
ARK
88
BLAYLOCK
BUMPERS-I-E
138,023-24
432,161-76
DEL
100
PETERSON-I
TRIBBITT -E
LYNDALL
109,348-48
116,689-52
1,604-0
-
ILL
94
OGILVIE-I
WALKER -E
2,129,659-49
2,206,399-51
IND
99
BOWEN -E
WELSH
HURLEY
CAMPBELL
1,183,275-57
886,616-43
5,710-0
4,642-0
IOWA
99
RAY-I-E
FRNZNBRG
DILLEY
699,499-59
482,938-40
14,236-1
KANS
93
KAY
DOCKING-I-E
299,022-37
502,490-63
+
MO
97
BOND -E
DOWD
944,860-55
775,572-45
MONT
93
SMITH
JUDGE -E
127,291-45
153,473-55
NHAMP
98
THOMSON -E
CROWLEY
MCLANE
132,383-42
123,345-39
61,928-19
+
NCAR
95
HOLSHOSR -E
BOWLES
PETTYJHN
725,626-52
681,648-48
8,345-0
NDAK
82
LARSEN
LINK -E
112,453-48
118,268-52
RI
100
DESIMONE
NOEL -E
185,146-47
208,523-53
SODAK
93
THOMPSON
KNEIP-I-E
104,516-40
156,970-60
TEX
86
GROVER
BRISCOE -E
MUNIZ
1,278,391-47
1,328,645-48
164,322-5
UTAH
98
STRIKE
RAMPTON-I-E
141,161-30
320,682-70
-
VT
99
HACKETT
SALMON -E SANDERS
78,637-43
99,053-56
2,003-1
WASH
89
EVANS-I-E ROSELINI
574,743-54
501,069-46
WVA
90
MOORE-I-E ROCKFELR
383,935-55
323,596-45
(I INDICATES INCUMBENT)
(E INDICATES ELECTED)
ORIAL TABLE BYYUPI 8:59 A.M. EST
0/0 OF
STATE PCTS REPUBLICAN-0/0
DEMOCRAT-0/0
OTHERS-0/0
OTHERS-0/0
BLOUNT
SPARKMAN-I-E
STONE
LEFLORE
ALA
87
311,229-33
613,131-65
6,503-0
27,516-2
ALASKA
72
STEVENS-I-E
GUESS
55,700-78
16,326-22
ARK
88
BABBITT
MCCLELAN-I-E
212,359-38
340,219-62
COLO
ALLOTT-I
HASKELL -E
SALAZAR
94
13M
3
416,207-48
429,598-51
12,211-1
DEL
100
BOGGS-I
BIDEN -E
MAJKA
3M
2
112,542-49
115,528-51
817-0
GEO
79
F THOMPS
NUNN -E
405,343-44
498,473-56
IDA
98
MCCLURE -E
DAVIS
STODDARD
156,701-53
137,755-45
6,639-2
ILL
94
PERCY-I-E
PUCINSKI
2,636,854-63
1,600,187-37
IOWA
99
MILLER-I
CLARK -E
ROCAP
125 M 10
522,482-45
647,390-55
8,439-0
KANS
91
PEARSON-I-E
TETZLAFF
MILLER
538,581-73
173,230-23
34,050-4
KY
100
NUNN
HUDDLSTN -E
BREEDEN
BARTLEY
34A 3
490,435-48
524,033-51
8,528-1
5,760-0
JOHNSTON -E
LYONS
MCKEITHN
LA
96
TOLEDANO
193,243-19
558,473-55
29,127-2
236,418-24
MAINE
97
SMITH-I
HATHAWAY -E
25M 8
189,036-46
214,702-54
MASS
96
BROOKE-I-E
DRONEY
1,438,369-65
784,915-35
MICH
85
GRIFFIN-I-E
KELLEY
DILLINGR
HALPERT
1,499,322-52
1,361,785-48
19,964-0
16,262-0
MINN
93
HANSEN
MONDALE-I-E
668,883-43
887,371-57
MISSI
94
CARMICHL
EASTLAND-I-E
WALKER
MCKINLEY
231,436-39
342,977-58
14,014-2
5,758-1
MONT
92
- HIBBARD
METCALF-I-E
132,085-47
144,171-53
NEBR
99.
CURTIS-I-E
CARPENTR
+26M
6
280,714-53
254,315-47
NHAMP
98
POWELL
MCINTYRE-I-E
181,247-57
44 At 14
137,458-43
NJER
96
CASE-I-E
KREBS
FREUND
1,609,743-63
921,183-36
28,357-1
NMEX
97
DOMENICI -E
DANIELS
+28AA
8
198,997-54
170,117-46
NCAR
97
HELMS -E
GALIFNKS
+115 # 10
762,119-55
647,488-45
OKLA
BARTLETT -E EDMONDSH
ROACH
98
+33M
4
494,572-52
461,130-48
6,133-0
ORE
98
HATFIELD-I-E
MORSE
169,623-54
403,631-46
100
CHAFEE
PELL-I-E
RI
32th 10
179,957-45
211,865-55
SOCAR
95
THURMOND-I-E
ZEIGLER
414,615-64
240,581-36
SODAK
93
HIRSCH
ABOUREZX -E
36M 14
111,962-43
147,503-57
TENN
100
H BAKER-I-E
BLANTON
713,871-62
440,835-38
AMAYA
TEX
86
TOWER-I-E
SANDERS
1,489,664-54
1,246,533-45
53,883-1
99
SCOTT -E
SPONG-I
HENDERSN
VIR
83At 6
721,812-52
638,636-46
33,779-2
WVA
90
LEONARD
RANDOLPH-I-E
225,052-33
444,703-67
WYO
99
HANSEN-I-E
VINICH
100,097-72
40,547-28
(I INDICATES INCUMBENT)
CE INDICATES ELECTED)
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
A
9
42
70
14
62-18-20
ALAS
3
577
34
45
ARIZ
6
56
50
55
62-23-14
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
CALIF 45
50
41
48
51-39-10
COLO
7
55
38
51
58-21-21
CONN
8
46
32
44
57-31-12
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
FLA
17
52
49
4]
GA
12
37
(54)
30
66-17-16
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
IDA
4
54
49
57,
66-16-18
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
IND
13
55
44
50
65-26- 9
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
KANS
7
60
45
55
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
ME
4
(57
31
43
64-17-19
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
MISS
7
25
87
14
MO
12
50
36
45
56-32-12
1.
T
4
51
41
51
54-24-22
*f REVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60 64 68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
BP
5
22
47
60
73-21- 6
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
N.H.
4
53
36
52
66-21-13
N.J.
17
19
34
46
59-33- 9
N.M.
4
49
40
52
60-24-16
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
N.C.
13
48
44
40
61-18-22
N.D.
3
55
42
56
OHIO
25
53
37
45
54-34-12
OKLA
8
9
44
48
64-15-21
ORE
6
3
36
50
50-35-15
PENN
27
49
35
44
58-31-12
i
I.
4
36
19
31
53-35-10
S.C.
8
49
59
38
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
TENN
10
53
45
38
TEX
26
49
37
40
63-22-16
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
VT
3
59
34
53
VA
J2
5
46
4
WASH
9
51
37
45
51-31-18
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
WISC 11
52
38
48
46-38-16
WYO
3
55
44
56
64-13-23
D.C.
3
15
18
i.
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
A
9
42
70
14
62-18-20
ALAS
3
51
34
45
ARIZ
6
562
50
55
62-23-14
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
CALIF 45 50 41 48 51-39-10
COLO
7
55
38
51.
58-21-21
CONN
8
46
32
44
57-31-12
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
FLA
17
52
49
41
GA
12
37
54
30
66-17-16
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
IDA
4
(54)
49
(57
66-16-18
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
I..D
13
55
44
50
65-26- 9
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
KANS
7
60
45
55
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
ME
4
57
31
43
64-17-19
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
MISS
7
25
87
14
MO
12
50
36
56-32-12
M
P
4
51
41
51
54-24-22
*] REVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
3P
5
62
47
60
73-21- 6
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
N.H.
4
53
35
52
66-21-13
N.J.
17
12
34
46
58-33-9
N.M.
4
49
40
52
60-24-16
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
N.C.
13
48
44
40
61-18-22
N.D.
3
55
42
56
OHIO
25
53
37
45
54-34-12
OKLA
8
59
44
48
64-15-21
ORE
6
53
36
50
50-35-15
PENN
27
49
35
44
58-31-12
T I.
4
36
19
31
53-35-10
S.C.
8
49
5°
38
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
TENN
10
53
45
38
TEX
26
49
37
40
63-22-16
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
VT
3
59
34
53
VA
J2
5
46
43
WASH
9
51
37
45
51-31-18
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
WISC
11
52
38
48
46-38-16
WYO
3
55
44
56
64-13-23
D.C.
3
15
18
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
1
9
42
70.
14
62-18-20
for
ALAS
3
51
34
45
ARIZ
6
156
50
55
62-23-14
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
CALIF 45
50
41
48
51-39-10
COLO
7
55
38
51
58-21-21
CONN
8
46
32
44
57-31-12
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
FLA
17
52
49
41:
GA
12
37
54
30
66-17-16
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
IDA
4
(54)
49
57.
66-16-18
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
IND
13
55
44
50
65-26- 9
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
KANS
7
60
45
55
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
ME
4
57
31
43
64-17-19
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
MISS
7
25
87
14
MO
12
50
36
45
56-32-12
M
:
4
51
41
51
54-24-22
of REVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
BR
5
29
47
(1f)
73-21- 6
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
N.H.
4
53
36
52
66-21-13
N.J.
17
12
34
46
58-33-9
N.M.
4
49
40
52
60-24-16
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
N.C.
13
48
44
40
61-18-22
N.D.
3
55 42 56
OHIO 25 53 37 45 54-34-12
OKLA
8
59
44
48
64-15-21
ORE
6
3
36
50
50-35-15
PENN
27
49
35
44
58-31-12
- I.
4
36
19
31
53-35-10
S.C.
8
49
59
38
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
TENN
10
53
45
38
TEX
26
49
37
40
63-22-16
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
VT
3
59
34
53
VA
J2
5
46
WASH
9
51
37
45
51-31-18
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
WISC
11
52
38
48
46-38-16
WYO
3
55
44
56
64-13-23
D.C.
3
15 18
I.
PEVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
1
9
42
70.
14
62-18-20
ALAS
3
51
34
45
ARIZ
6
562
50
55
62-23-14
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
CALIF 45
150
41
48
51-39-10
COLO
7
55,
38
51
58-21-21
CONN
8
46
32
44
57-31-12
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
FLA
17
52
49
41
GA
12
37
54
30
66-17-16
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
IDA
4
(54)
49
57,
66-16-18
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
IND
13
155
44
50
65-26- 9
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
KANS
7
60
45
55
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
ME
4
(57
31
43
64-17-19
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
MISS
7
25
87
14
MO
12
50
36
45
56-32-12
M 7 4
5]
41
51
54-24-22
REVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
BP
5
29
47
60
73-21- 6
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
N.H.
4
53
36
52
06-21-13
N.J.
17
13
34
46
58-33-9
N.M.
4
49
40
52
60-24-16
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
N.C.
13
48
44
40
01-18-22
N.D.
3
55
42
56
OHIO
25
53
37
45
54-34-12
OKLA
8
59
44
48
64-15-21
ORE
6
53
36
50
50-35-15
PENN
27
49
35
44
58-31-12
y I.
4
36
19
31
53-35-10
S.C.
8
49
59
38
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
TENN
10
53
45
38
TEX 26 49 37 40 63-22-16
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
VT
3
59 34 53
VA
12
5
46
43
WASH
9
51
37
45
51-31-18
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
WISC
11
52
38
48
46-38-16
WYO
3
55
44
56
64-13-23
D.C.
3
15
18
1.
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
A
9
42
70.
14
62-18-20
ALAS
3
51
34
45
ARTZ
6
56
50
55
62-23-14
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
CALIF 45
50
41
48
51-39-10
COLO
7
55
38
51
58-21-21
CONN
8
46
32
44
57-31-12
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
FLA
17
52
49
4]
GA
12
37
54
30
66-17-16
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
IDA
4
54
49
57,
66-16-18
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
I...
13
55
44
50
65-26- 9
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
KANS
7
60
45
55
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
ME
4
57
31
43
64-17-19
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
MISS
7
25
87
14
MO
12
50
36
45
56-32-12
M
P
4
51
41
51
54-24-22
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
APC
NBC
CBS
BP
5
62 47 60
73-21- 6
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
N.H.
4
53
36
52
66-21-13
N.J.
17
12
31
46
58-33-9
N.M.
4
49
40
52
60-24-16
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
N.C.
13
48
44
40
61-18-22
N.D.
3
55
42
56
OHIO
25
53
37
45
54-34-12
OKLA
8
59
44
48
64-15-21
ORE
6
3
36
50
50-35-15
PENN 27
49
35
44
58-31-12
T I.
4
36
19
33
53-35-10
S.C.
8
49
59
38
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
TENN
10
53
45
38
TEX
26
49
37
40
63-22-16
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
VT
3
59
34
53
VA
12
5
46
43
WASH
9
5]
37
45
51-31-18
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
WISC
11
52
38
48
46-38-16
WYO
3
55
44
156
64-13-23
D.C.
3
15 18
i.
2:00AM UPDATE
&
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
STATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
ALA
9
42
70
14
62-18-20
-
1
ALAS
3
51
34
45
ARIZ
6
56
50
55
62-23-14
63
63
ARK
6
43
43
31
62-18-20
65
1
CALIF 45
50
41
48
51-39-10
54
54
COLO
7
55
38
51
58-21-21
68
67
CONN
8
46
44
57-31-12
1
32
60
DEL
3
49
39
45
55-20-25
58
1
FLA
17
52
49
41
69
1
GA
12
37
54
30
66-17-16
77
1
HAW
4
50
21
39
66-17-17
58
IDA
4
54
49
57
66-16-18
66
1
1
ILL
26
50
41
48
55-32-13
62
IND
13
55
44
50
65-26- 9
64
67
IOW
8
57
38
53
58-33- 8
62
1
KANS
60
45
55
63
69
7
KY
9
54
36
44
59-26-15
61
65
LA
10
29
57
24
68-17-14
64
1
ME
4
57
31
43
64-17-19
1
62
1
MD
10
46
35
42
58-30-12
MASS
14
40
23
33
39-49-12
X
46
MICH
21
49
33
42
49-42- 9
58
1
MINN
10
49
36
42
56-39- 5
52
52
MISS
7
25
14
1
87
77
MO
12
50
36
45
56-32-12
59
62
4
51
41
51
54-24-22
56
\
MONT
PREVIOUS
PROJECTION
TATE EV
60
64
68
POLL
PRED
ABC
NBC
CBS
NEBR
5
62
47
60
73-21- 6
62
NEV
3
49
41
48
49-33-18
62
62
N.H.
4
53
36
52
66-21-13
1
1
N.J.
17
49
34
46
58-33- 9
56
62
1
N.M.
A
49
40
52
60-24-16
64
N.Y.
41
47
31
44
62-38
61
59
N.C.
13
48
44
40
61-18-22
1
73
N.D.
3
55
42
56
64
OHIO
25
53
37
45
54-34-12
58
60
OKLA
8
59
44
48
64-15-21
78
58
ORE
6
53
36
50
50-35-15
55
PENN
27
49
35
44
58-31-12
67
62
R.I.
4
36
19
31
53-35-10
1
55
S.C.
8
49
59
38
72
1
S.D.
4
58
44
53
58-26-16
1
TENN
10
53
45
38
68
71
TEX
26
49
37
40
63-22-16
73
69
UTAH
4
55
45
57
70-20-10
66
75
1
VT
3
59
34
53
70
VA
12
52
46
43
68
70
WASH
9
51
37
45
51-31-18
57
59
58
W.VA.
6
47
32
41
65-25-10
1
59
WISC
11
52
38
48
46-38-16
56
WYO
3
55
44
56
64-13-23
65
1
D.C.
3
15
18
X
X
SENATORIAL TABLE BY UPI 2:02 P.M. EST
STATE POTS REPUBLICAN-O/O DEMOCRAT-0/0 OTHERS-0/0 STONE LEFLORE OTHERS-0/0
0/0 OF
BLOUNT
SPARKMAN+INE
6,504-0
29,131-8
TETZLAFF
255,424-47
100,604-72