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This file contains:
Draft (author unk) with handwritten notes RE: "Trial Heat Poll." 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: the Harris Family Issues - In Depth Poll and the Gallup Poll. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Possible draft (author unk) RE: "Suggested Questions for Trial Heat Poll." 3pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: revision to follow-up Roper "right track/wrong track" question. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Draft of incomplete report with handwritten notes (author unk) RE: question areas offered but not asked for the Wrap Up Poll. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten note (author unk) of suggested questions RE: television appearance and racial bias. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Gordon Strachan From: L. Higby RE: the August and September polls. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/9/1971
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26146078
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WHSF: Contested, 41-1
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1
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26146078
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contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 41-1
description
This file contains:
Draft (author unk) with handwritten notes RE: "Trial Heat Poll." 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: the Harris Family Issues - In Depth Poll and the Gallup Poll. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Possible draft (author unk) RE: "Suggested Questions for Trial Heat Poll." 3pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: revision to follow-up Roper "right track/wrong track" question. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Draft of incomplete report with handwritten notes (author unk) RE: question areas offered but not asked for the Wrap Up Poll. 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten note (author unk) of suggested questions RE: television appearance and racial bias. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Gordon Strachan From: L. Higby RE: the August and September polls. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/9/1971
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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1
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no
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26146078
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
41
1
Campaign
Report
Draft (author unk) with handwritten notes
RE: "Trial Heat Poll." 1pg
41
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: the
Harris Family Issues - In Depth Poll and the
Gallup Poll. 2pgs
41
1
>
Campaign
Other Document
Possible draft (author unk) RE: "Suggested
Questions for Trial Heat Poll." 3pgs
41
1
>
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes (author unk) RE: revision
to follow-up Roper "right track/wrong track"
question. 2pgs
41
1
>
Campaign
Report
Draft of incomplete report with handwritten
notes (author unk) RE: question areas
offered but not asked for the Wrap Up Poll.
2pgs
41
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten note (author unk) of suggested
questions RE: television appearance and
racial bias. 1pg
41
1
8/9/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan From: L. Higby RE:
the August and September polls. 1pg
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Page 1 of 1
ner
From
My taldem Gorden Stachan
Trial Heat Poll
Salft
Dr. Derge and Tom Benham produced recommendations
for a poll to assess the strengths of the Democratic
contenders and the effect of third and fourth party
candidates. Derge suggests running two ways and three
way trial heats so that a cross-tabulation could "identify
which persons shift to Wallace from RMN or the Democrats
in a three-way race." " Benham urges the use of the
"familiarity/favorability" questions as well as fourth
party options. If the questionnaire probed the two,
three, and four way trial heats with Muskie, Kennedy,
Humphrey and McGovern as the Democrats and Eugene
McCarthy and Shirley Chisholm as the fourth party can-
didates, the polling would take two days and the results
would be available on the third day. A suggested ques-
tionnaire is attached.
several
that could le substitule
some ol other However other possible areas for this trial heat
per trial heat questions include a Haldemon
poll include:
intensity
the intensity of interest in
defense expenditures, the
intensity of approval plisapproval
Haldeman, 9 Suggestions
ofter P; Dx
The defense intensity of interest questions
The intensity of approval disapproval of the P
Higby's Suggestions
The relative strength of Connally and Agnew
on the ticket
Roper "right-track-wrong track" probing
@
a
Haldeme
You suggested that the public's interest in
defense expenditures compo should be
probed by comparing asking whether they
would'rilling to maintain a strong
defense Feven if it meant giving up
programs for other things, ete." This
area is being explored by the Havis
Family Issues- - tn Depth Poll, the
results of which are due next week.
These Havis questions are attached should
you decide that comparative results
would be useful.
A You also ouggested that following
the Presidential approval question,
the level of intensity should be explored
as Gollup did in the September 13
B press release. The poorly worded
Galleep question and the Benham
alternative are attached.
up
A hony Higby suggested that we
Rt
ur
probe the relative strength of agnew
and Connally as UnPresidential condidates
However, he made this suggestion
before the Hanis results of Sept 27
which indicated that Connally
was stronger (52 to 36). Highy
also suggested that questions be
HARRY NBAL
questionsfor
9/27/71
suggested
TRIAL HEAT. OUESTTONNAIRE
2Pole
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Nixon is
handling his job as President?
2. Now I am going to read you the names of some people in
public life. I'd like you to tell me how much you know about
each of them. First, take Spiro Agnew - do you know quite a
lot about him, a little about him, practically nothing about
him, or have you never heard of him? Next, take
.
(Read each persons name in order and repeat the rating
categories as necessary.)
Here is the list of individuals
in alphabetical order about whom the familiarity question is
being asked -- Spiro Agnew, Shirley Chisholm, Fred Harris,
Hubert Humphrey, Edward Kennedy, John Lindsay, Eugene McArthy,
George McGovern, Edmund Muskie, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan,
Nelson Rockefeller, George Wallace.
3. Ask question #3 only about those people the respondent has
heard of: Now I am going to read you the names of those
people you have heard of. I'd like you to tell me how favorable
or unfavorable your opinion is of each person. First, take
(the name of the first person on the list that the respondent
has heard of) -- is your opinion of him very favorable, fairly
favorable, not very favorable, or very unfavorable? (Read names
in order and repeat the rating categories as necessary.)
-2-
SET I
4a. In 1972 there will be another Presidential election. If
this election were being held today and the candidates were
Richard Nixon and Edmund Muskie which one would you vote. for?
4b. If neither or undecided on 4a you ask the following:
Would you say that you lean more toward Richard Nixon or
more toward Edmund Muskie?
4c. Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, Edmund
Muskie, and George Wallace as a third party candidate. Which
one would you vote for?
4d. If none or undecided on 4c you ask: Would you say that
you lean more toward Richard Nixon, more toward Edmund Muskie,
or more toward George Wallace?
4e. Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, Edmund Muskie,
mcCanthy
George Wallace as a third party candidate, and Eugene MeArthy as
a fourth party candidate. Which one would you vote for?
4f. If none or undecided on question 4e you ask: Would you say
that you lean more toward Richard Nixon, more toward Edmund
Muskie, more toward George Wallace, or more toward Eugene McArthy?
4g. Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, Edmund Muskie,
George Wallace as a third party candidate, and Shirley Chisholm
as a fourth party candidate. Which one would you vote for?
-3-
4h. If none or undecided on 4g you ask: Would you say that
you lean more toward Richard Nixon, more toward Edmund Muskie,
more toward George Wallace, or more toward Shirley Chisholm?
THESE QUESTIONS ARE WORDED JUST AS TRIAL HEAT QUESTIONS HAVE
BEEN WORDED BEFORE. THERE WILL BE THREE MORE SETS OF THOSE
EIGHT QUESTIONS AND IN THE OTHER THREE SETS INSTEAD OF
MUSKIE, FOR THE FIRST SET WE PUT IN KENNEDY, THEN WE PLUG IN
HUMPHREY, AND THEN WE PLUG IN McGOVERN. IN EFFECT THERE ARE
FOUR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES BEING EVALUATED HERE WITH NIXON
IN A TWO WAY TRIAL HEAT, WITH WALLACE IN A THREE WAY AND WITH
BOTH MCARTHY AND CHISHOLM IN A FOUR WAY. YOU HAVE IN EFFECT
32 TRIAL HEAT QUESTIONS (16 basic questions and 8 leaners).
I THINK THOSE TRIAL HEATS WITH THE FAVORABILITY AND FAMILIARITY
ON I BELIEVE 13 CANDIDATES AND THE NIXON APPROVAL IS A FULL
QUESTIONNAIRE. ADDITIONALLY, OF COURSE, THE USUAL DEMOGRAPHICS
WILL BE ADDED. THE TRIAL HEATS, IN THE DATA PROCESSING STAGE,
CAN BE RUN ONE AGAINST THE OTHER IN ANY WAY THAT YOU WANT.
The 4a-h setswould above be asked
per Humphrey, Kennedy, and me Govern.
devised to follow - up on the Roper
"reght track/crong track "question.
many issue results will beauailable
from the Havis Family -
In Depth Poll next week, but
suggested questions. are nevertheless
attached nevertheless,
Devight Chopen suggested question
questions whether
25% of the people feel quilty about
25% of the people feel guilty about
watching the p. on teleproion-
Deamount of time spent watching
television, be doubts thet believes that
the people expect their P. appear
on televiour and that at is their duty to watch
Suggested questions are attached.
Safine believes it would be
valuable to conduct a poll among
blacks to assess their reaction"te the
Muslier statement and the Rixon reposte."
Sie @ - a
2
Chapin's Suggestion
Whether people expect their President to
appear on TV to inform
Safire Suggestion
The effect of "black VP" statement by Muskie
Harper's Suggestion
Health/aging questions
In addition, question areas which were offered for
b
the Wrap Up Poll but not asked include: jail terms for
drugs, welfare-menial jobs, credibility of polls, govern-
ment policy and polls, SALT talks, Gallup issue ranking,
environment/pollution, revenue sharing, no fault insurance,
the US Army, and approval of VP Agnew, Questions in these
areas with trend data are immediately available but not
5
attached.
Results to vabile to leturen
Assuming interest in the black VP statement it
Tool tai Painly accurate press scable results
Toobtain results accurate enough to form a press release 300blacks woul have
might be valuable question enough blacks to assure
a
to be
valid conclusions. If the standard 1000 interview were
questioned,
expanded to 1200 a full 300 blacks could be questioned
resulting in an accuracy level of + 7%. The additional
blacks would be harder to reach by telephone and so
interviewing time would be four days instead of two.
a
The additional cost would be $3500 - $4000.
Suggested questions are attached
C
Recommendation:
That the trial heat poll be conducted on October 6
and 7 so that results will be available October 8.
C
A APP our comment
Leavein
Teleprism [Presidential appearances Opin
suggestion
Do you believe the President
appears on television too often, not
often enough, or just about right?
why do you with the PAS
on television?
Do you as
& Beack UP - Safire Suggeotion
would you vote against your
preferred condidate for President if
his Vice Presidential venning mate were black?
Do you agree or disagree with this
statement- - "a qualified black Vice Presidential
condidate cannot be elected in 1972."
Ra
THE WHITE HOUSE
Pall surpense
WASHINGTON
for 2 as agpolat pollo
ic.
August 9, 1971
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
In
poll
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
Bob talked some more on the way back from Maine about the
4
upcoming polls. He indicated that the August poll should
be a clean-up poll that gets rid of a lot of questions we
have had hanging around. Also, I think it would be a good
time to do another reading on issue ranking, if we can fit
it in.
For our next poll in September, he wants to do a four-way
trial heat that includes McCarthy He wants to do this in
relation to Humphrey, Muskie and I would imagine also
Kennedy. Make sure that this is included in your follow-up
file in that area.
ii: RN, Mashir Wallace, Mc Centh
RN, K
"
"
ITHIT
"
etc.