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This file contains:
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Post election Poll. With survey attached. 21pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Final newspaper polls. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1972
To: Fred Malek. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election Survey. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1972
Handwritten notes. RE: Surveys. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 22pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post-election survey. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/4/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Electoral vote survey. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: California field poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli. RE: Analyses for the California trip. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: North Carolina. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Electoral Vote Survey. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
1972 Electoral Vote Forecast. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: North Carolina. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to New Mexico. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Illinois. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Illinois. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Detroit News Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Ehrlichman Access to Teeter Poll briefings. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Oklahoma. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Rhode Island. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
Report of the states polls. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Briefing on States represented at Chicago Event. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Michigan. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli. RE: Teeter's analysis of Kentucky. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/25/1972
Trial heats: California, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to Ohio. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
Commintment Ballot. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Opinion Survey. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/26/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Campaign Polling - Response to McGovern Releases. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Polling. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Michigan. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Kentucky. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Addendum to Teeter Memo. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert. M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. Copy of memo attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Teeter Briefing for Chapin and Parker. Copy of memo attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Turnout. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor RE: Turnout memo from Robert M. Teeter. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Addendum to Teeter Memo. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
Handwritten Notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
RE: Questionnaire and interviews table, by state. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/18/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Final Polling. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
Handwritten notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Gallup and Harris sample and filter procedures memo from Robert M. Teeter. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
To: Ron Ziegler. From: Dwight L. Chapin. RE: Trip and New York and Ohio. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
Handwritten notes. Rolling Wave schedule. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California Telephone poll. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
Opinion survey. 3pgs. Two copies attached. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
Telephone survey - Rolling Wave. Illinois. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/6/1972
Telephone survey - Rolling wave. Ohio. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/8/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Minnesota Phone Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
Opinion Survey. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave. New Jersey. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Teeter telephone polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/9/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Minnesota phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Illinois and Iowa polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/9/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
Trial Heats. Maryland. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/4/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California and Michigan telephone polls. With reports attached. 9pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Trial heat data. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling schedule. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Maryland Rolling Wave. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling Schedule. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Polling strategy. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Rolling Wave polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Rolling wave polling sample sizes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling matters. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
Trial Heats Report. Wisconsin. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/30/1972
Trial Heats report. Missouri. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. With article attached. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Telephone polling. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling Matters. 13pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
Handwritten Notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146094
label
WHSF: Contested, 42-1
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146094
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 42-1
description
This file contains:
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Post election Poll. With survey attached. 21pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Final newspaper polls. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/5/1972
To: Fred Malek. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election Survey. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1972
Handwritten notes. RE: Surveys. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 22pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Post-election survey. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/4/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Electoral vote survey. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: California field poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli. RE: Analyses for the California trip. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: North Carolina. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Electoral Vote Survey. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
1972 Electoral Vote Forecast. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: North Carolina. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to New Mexico. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Illinois. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Illinois. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Detroit News Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Ehrlichman Access to Teeter Poll briefings. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Oklahoma. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Rhode Island. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1972
Report of the states polls. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Briefing on States represented at Chicago Event. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Michigan. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli. RE: Teeter's analysis of Kentucky. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/25/1972
Trial heats: California, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to Ohio. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
Commintment Ballot. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Opinion Survey. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/26/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Campaign Polling - Response to McGovern Releases. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Polling. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Michigan. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Kentucky. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/24/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Addendum to Teeter Memo. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert. M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. Copy of memo attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/23/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Teeter Briefing for Chapin and Parker. Copy of memo attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Turnout. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor RE: Turnout memo from Robert M. Teeter. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Addendum to Teeter Memo. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/18/1972
Handwritten Notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
RE: Questionnaire and interviews table, by state. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Handwritten notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/18/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Final Polling. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
Handwritten notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Gallup and Harris sample and filter procedures memo from Robert M. Teeter. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
To: Ron Ziegler. From: Dwight L. Chapin. RE: Trip and New York and Ohio. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/16/1972
Handwritten notes. Rolling Wave schedule. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California Telephone poll. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
Opinion survey. 3pgs. Two copies attached. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
Telephone survey - Rolling Wave. Illinois. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/6/1972
Telephone survey - Rolling wave. Ohio. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/8/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Minnesota Phone Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
Opinion Survey. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave. New Jersey. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Teeter telephone polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/9/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Minnesota phone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Illinois and Iowa polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/9/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
Trial Heats. Maryland. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/4/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: California and Michigan telephone polls. With reports attached. 9pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Trial heat data. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/7/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling schedule. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Maryland Rolling Wave. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling Schedule. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Polling strategy. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Rolling Wave polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Rolling wave polling sample sizes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling matters. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
Trial Heats Report. Wisconsin. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/30/1972
Trial Heats report. Missouri. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/28/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. With article attached. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Telephone polling. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Polling Matters. 13pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1972
Handwritten Notes. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M. Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1972
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 1pg.
42
1
11/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Post election Poll. With survey
attached. 21pgs.
42
1
11/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Final newspaper polls. 3pgs.
42
1
11/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Fred Malek. From: Gordon Strachan.
RE: Post election Survey. 10pgs.
42
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes. RE: Surveys. 3pgs.
42
1
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Post election survey. 22pgs.
42
1
11/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Post-election survey. 4pgs.
42
1
11/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Electoral vote survey. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: California field poll. 1pg.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli.
RE: Analyses for the California trip. 5pgs.
42
1
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE:
North Carolina. 4pgs.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 1 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
11/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Electoral Vote Survey. 2pgs.
42
1
10/25/1972
Campaign
Report
1972 Electoral Vote Forecast. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: California. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: North Carolina. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to New
Mexico. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE:
Illinois. 1pg.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE:
Illinois. 1pg.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Detroit News Poll. 1pg.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Ehrlichman Access to Teeter
Poll briefings. 1pg.
42
1
10/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Oklahoma. 2pgs.
42
1
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Rhode Island. 2pgs.
42
1
10/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Illinois Briefing. 3pgs.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 2 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
10/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg.
42
1
10/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Washington Poll. 1pg.
42
1
Campaign
Report
Report of the states polls. 7pgs.
42
1
10/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE:
Briefing on States represented at Chicago
Event. 6pgs.
42
1
10/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: Harry S. Dent. RE:
Michigan. 3pgs.
42
1
10/25/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Bruce Kehrli.
RE: Teeter's analysis of Kentucky. 4pgs.
42
1
Campaign
Report
Trial heats: California, Connecticut, New
Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. 5pgs.
42
1
10/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Presidential visit to Ohio. 2pgs.
42
1
Campaign
Report
Commitment Ballot. 1pg.
42
1
10/26/1972
Campaign
Report
Opinion Survey. 3pgs.
42
1
10/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Campaign Polling - Response
to McGovern Releases. 6pgs.
42
1
10/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Polling. 2pgs.
42
1
10/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Michigan. 2pgs.
42
1
10/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Kentucky. 2pgs.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 3 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Addendum to Teeter Memo. 5pgs.
42
1
10/23/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert. M.
Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. Copy of memo
attached. 4pgs.
42
1
10/20/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Teeter Briefing for Chapin
and Parker. Copy of memo attached. 2pgs.
42
1
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Turnout. 2pgs.
42
1
10/19/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark
MacGregor RE: Turnout memo from Robert
M. Teeter. 3pgs.
42
1
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs.
42
1
10/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Addendum to Teeter Memo. 1pg.
42
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten Notes. 1pg.
42
1
Campaign
Report
RE: Questionnaire and interviews table, by
state. 1pg.
42
1
10/18/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes. 1pg.
42
1
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Final Polling. 5pgs.
42
1
10/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 4pgs.
42
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 4 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
10/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Clark
MacGregor. RE: Gallup and Harris sample
and filter procedures memo from Robert M.
Teeter. 2pgs.
42
1
10/16/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Ron Ziegler. From: Dwight L. Chapin.
RE: Trip and New York and Ohio. 1pg.
42
1
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes. Rolling Wave schedule.
2pgs.
42
1
10/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: California Telephone poll. 6pgs.
42
1
Campaign
Report
Opinion survey. 3pgs. Two copies attached.
42
1
10/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Future Polling. 3pgs.
42
1
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg.
42
1
10/6/1972
Campaign
Report
Telephone survey - Rolling Wave. Illinois.
5pgs.
42
1
10/8/1972
Campaign
Report
Telephone survey - Rolling wave. Ohio.
5pgs.
42
1
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Minnesota Phone Poll. 1pg.
42
1
Campaign
Report
Opinion Survey. 3pgs.
42
1
10/6/1972
Campaign
Report
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave. New
Jersey. 10 pgs.
42
1
10/9/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE:
Teeter telephone polls. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 5 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: New Jersey phone poll. 1pg.
42
1
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Minnesota phone poll. 1pg.
42
1
10/9/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Illinois and Iowa polls. 1pg.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Phone polls. 1pg.
42
1
10/4/1972
Campaign
Report
Trial Heats. Maryland. 5pgs.
42
1
10/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: California and Michigan
telephone polls. With reports attached. 9pgs.
42
1
10/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Trial heat data. 1pg.
42
1
10/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Polling schedule. 4pgs.
42
1
10/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Maryland Rolling Wave. 1pg.
42
1
10/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Polling Schedule. 2pgs.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE:
Polling strategy. 1pg.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Rolling Wave polls. 1pg.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Rolling wave polling sample sizes. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 6 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Polling matters. 1pg.
42
1
9/30/1972
Campaign
Report
Trial Heats Report. Wisconsin. 4pgs.
42
1
9/28/1972
Campaign
Report
Trial Heats report. Missouri. 4pgs.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. With article
attached. 3pgs.
42
1
10/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Telephone polling. 1pg.
42
1
10/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Polling Matters. 13pgs.
42
1
>
Campaign
Handwritten Notes. 1pg.
42
1
10/5/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Robert M.
Teeter. RE: Phone Polls. 1pg.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Page 7 of 7
Rolling
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
wave
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Post Election Survey
Clark MacGreger accepted the Bob Teeter suggestion of
a post election survey. MacGregor told Tester he might
talk to you about the best way to approach Stans for the
money (40,000).
The rough draft questionnaire from Teeter is attached.
There are no question on tax reform and alternative
budget cuts to stay within the 250 billion budget.
Teeter will develop these questions.
The only people who know of the survey are MacGregor,
Reisner, Teeter, and Magruder. You may want to discuss
the subject with Ehrlichman and ask him if he wants
particular substantive issues explored.
Teeter hopes to get your comments, re=submit a final
questionnaire, and obtain final approval Wednesday so
that interviewing can begin Thursday and Friday. The
bulk of the interviewing would be done over the weekend.
The wrap-up questionnaires to assure demographic balance
would be done during the week of November 13. The
results would be available by December 1.
GS/jb
Committee for the Re-clection of the President
MEMORAHDUM
November 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Rant
SUBJECT:
Post Election Poll
Attached is a draft questionnaire for the national after
election study.
It is obviously too long to actually be done in the field. It
was designed to give us an opportunity to look at several different
areas and types of questions. Virtually all of the candidate and
issue questions are the same as we asked in Wave II and or III
so that we can identify trends.
In addition to this questionnaire which will be used for the national
we will administer a short form to those individuals we find who
are registered but did not vote. We will also use a shorter form
of this questionnaire to do the four state panels MOR is going to do.
We should meet sometime early Wednesday a.m. to finalize the questionnaire
so we can begin interviewing Thursday and Friday.
Hello, I'm
of Market Opinion Research. We are making a study of the
recent national election and I would like to ask you a few questions.
1. Mars May red to vote in the
YES
election last Tuesday?
NO
(IF YES, GO TO QUESTION 2, IF NO TERMINATE)
2.
Did you vote in the election last Tuesday?
YES
NO
(IF YES CONTINUE, IF NO ADMINISTER YELLOW QUESTIONNAIRE)
3.
Did you vote for Richard Nixon, the
RICHARD NIXON
Republican, or George McGovern the
GEORGE MC GOVERN
Democrat for President?
OTHER
REFUSED
4.
(IF VOTED FOR NIXON ASK) Would you say
FOR NIXON
you voted more for Nixon or against
AGAINST MC GOVERN
McGovern
(IF FOR NIXON ASK a, IF AGAINST MC GOVERN, ASK b)
a. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote for
Nixon? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:)
What is the one thing that stands
out most in your mind?
b. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote against
McGovern? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:)
What is the one thing that stands out
most in your mind?
5.
(IF VOTED FOR MC GOVERN ASK:)
FOR MC GOVERN
Would you say you voted more for
AGAINST NIXON
McGovern or against Nixon?
(IF FOR MC GOVERN ASK a, IF AGAINST NIXON ASK b)
a. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important thing
that caused you to vote for McGovern?
(PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:) What is the
one thing that stands out most in your
mind?
- 2 -
b. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote against
Nixon? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:) What
is the one thing that stands out most in
your mind?
6. Again, looking back at the whole presidential
BEFORE EITHER OF THE NOMINATING
campaign, when did you finally make up your
CONVENTIONS
mind how you would vote for the President?
AFTER THE DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION
(MARK APPROPRIATE CATEGORY, READ CHOICES ONLY
AFTER THE REPUBLICAN
IF RESPONDENT NEEDS HELP)
CONVENTION
DURING SEPTEMBER
Interviewer Information:
DURING THE LAST HALF
Democratic Convention - July 10-13
OF OCTOBER
Republican Convention
- August 21-24
DURING THE LAST WEEK BEFORE
THE ELECTION
ON THE DAY BEFORE OR
ON ELECTION DAY
7. Did you at any time during the campaign
YES
change your mind about who you were
NO
going to vote for?
(IF YES ASK a AND b)
a. When did you change your mind?
b. What caused you to change your mind?
(ASK ONLY IF THERE WAS A U.S. SENATE RACE IN STATE IN WHICH YOU ARE INTERVIEWING,
CONSULT INSTRUCTION)
8. Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator?
DEMOCRATIC
OTHER
(ASK ONLY IF THERE WAS A GOVERNOR'S RACE IN STATE IN WHICH YOU ARE INTERVIEWING,
CONSULT INSTRUCTION)
9. Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for Governor?
DEMOCRATIC
OTHER
- 3 -
10. Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for Congress
DEMOCRATIC
in your district?
OTHER
11. Now thinking about all of the races
on the Ballot in the election last
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
Tuesday, which answer on this card
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
best describes how you voted?
REPUBLICANS
(HAND POLITICAL CARD)
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
DON'T KNOW
12. What do you think are the most
important problems facing the United
States as a Nation at this time (PROBE)
13. Which one of these do you think is the
single most important problem facing
the United States (CIRCLE JUST ONE OF THE
ABOVE)
a. What do you think should be done about it?
14. Do you feel things in the country are
RIGHT DIRECTION
generally going in the right direction
WRONG TRACK
today, or do you feel things have pretty
DON'T KNOW
seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
- 4 -
15. I'd like to hand you a group of cards. On each card is a problem or issue facing
our country. I'd like you to hand me the card that was most important to you
in deciding how to vote for President this fall. Then hand me the card with the
problem that was second most important to you, and continue handing me the
cards in order of their importance until you have handed me all of the cards.
(HAND ISSUE CARDS AND BE SURE TO ROTATE THEM.)
(LIST PROBLEMS IN THE ORDER THEY ARE HANDED BACK TO YOU 1, 2, 3, 4
)
Drugs
Taxes
Health Care
Vietnam
Unemployment
Racial Problems
Foreign Policy
National Defense
Crime
Inflation
Pollution/
Environment
Busing
General Unrest
Welfare
Corruption
16. Now, I'd like to read through the list of problems and issues again and as I
mention each one I'd like you to rate President Nixon on his ability to handle
each one. (HAND ABILITY CARD) (ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU MENTION ISSUES)
Extremely
Very
Fairly
Not Very
Not at
Well
Well
Well
Well
All Well
Drugs
5
4
3
2
1
Taxes
5
4
3
2
1
Health Care
5
4
3
2
1
Vietnam
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment
5
4
3
2
1
Racial Problems
5
4
3
2
1
Foreign Policy
5
4
3
2
1
National Defense
5
4
3
2
1
Crime
5
4
3
2
1
Inflation
5
4
3
2
1
Pollution/Environment
5
4
3
2
1
Busing
5
4
3
2
1
General Unrest
5
4
3
2
1
Welfare
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
5
4
3
2
1
- 5
17. Now, I'd like to go through the list once more and have you rate George McGovern
on his ability to handle each problem. (ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU MENTION ISSUES)
Extremely
Very
Fairly
Not Very
Not at
Well
Well
Well
Well
All Well
Drugs
5
4
3
2
1
Taxes
5
4
3
2
1
Health Care
5
4
3
2
1
Vietnam
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment
5
4
3
2
1
Racial Problems
5
4
3
2
1
Foreign Policy
5
4
3
2
1
National Defense
5
4
3
2
1
Crime
5
4
3
2
1
Inflation
5
4
3
2
-
Pollution/Environment
5
4
3
2
1
Busing
5
4
3
2
1
General Unrest
5
4
3
2
1
Welfare
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
18. Did the developments in the Vietnam
RICHARD NIXON
War peace negotiations during the last
GEORGE MC GOVERN
few days of the campaign make you more
NO DIFFERENCE
likely to vote for Richard Nixon,
DON'T KNOW
more likely to vote for George McGovern
or not make any difference to you in deciding
how to vote?
19. Regarding Vietnam, do you think the peace
FAVORS COMMUNISTS
terms now being discussed are more favorable
FAIR TO BOTH SIDES
to the Communist side, more favorable to
FAVORS U.S. AND VIETNAM
the U.S. and South Vietnamese side, fair to
DON'T KNOW
both sides, or don't you know?
20. The charge has been made that President
AGREE
Nixon could have made the Vietnam peace
DISAGREE
settlement long ago and that he delayed
DON'T KNOW
it just to help his reelection. Do you
agree or disagree with this charge?
- 6 -
21. After the U.S. finally withdraws all its
REMAIN NON COMMUNIST
forces from Vietnam, do you expect
COMMUNISTS WILL TAKE
South Vietnam to remain a non-communist
IT OVER
country or do you think it is likely that
DON'T KNOW
the communists will take it over?
22. After the war is over do you think the
SHOULD
United States should or should not
SHOULD NOT
help rebuild Vietnam?
DON'T KNOW
23.
Some people have said that having a strong national defense at least equal to
the Russians and Chinese is the best hope for peace. Others have said that
we have more important needs in our own country and that we should spend more of
our money on domestic programs even if it means that our military strength
would be less than some other countries. On this scale card 1 would represent
those people who believe we should have a national defense at least as strong as
the Russians and Chinese and 7 would represent those who think we should spend
less on national defense and more on domestic programs even if it leaves our
military strength less than some other country. (HAND SCALE CARD 22)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b, c.)
Spend At Home and
Strong National Defense
Less Strong Defense
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place; President Nixon on this scale?
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale?
24.
Do you think that we should spend more, about the same amount, or less money
on national defense in the next few years as we are now?
17-1 Spend less
2 About the same amount
3 Spend more
0 Don't know
- 7 -
25.
There has been some discussion lately of ammesty, that is, forgiveness, for
those who have left the country or gone to prison to avoid the draft during
the Vietnam War. Which of the courses of action on this card would you most
like to see the government take?
1 GRANT UNCONDITIONAL AMNESTY NOW
2 GRANT UNCONDITIONAL AMNESTY. AFTER THE WAR IS OVER AND OUR
PRISONERS OF WAR HAVE BEEN RETURNED
3 GRANT AMNESTY AFTER THE WAR IS OVER, BUT REQUIRE TWO YEARS
OF SOME TYPE OF GOVERNMENT SERVICE
4 GRANT AMNESTY AFTER THE WAR IS OVER, BUT REQUIRE AN
APPROPRIATE PENALTY
5 NOT GRANT AMNESTY AT ALL
6 DON'T KNOW
a.
(REFER TO*CARD "E.") Which of these
positions do you think Richard Nixon favors?
(Record number. of response)
b. (REFER TO CARD "E.") Which of these
positions do you think George McGovern favors?
(Record number of response)
26.
Considering the whole economic situation,
UNEMPLOYMENT
which one of these concerns you most --
INFLATION
unemployment, inflation, or taxes?
TAXES
DON'T KNOW
27.
Generally speaking, do you believe the
YES
steps taken by President Nixon have
NO
slowed inflation?
DON'T KNOW
28.
Some People say that giving certain tax breaks to business will create more jobs.
Others say that business now receives too many tax breaks. (HAND SCALE CARD)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b AND c)
Create More Jobs
Too Many Tax Breaks
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place President Nixon on this scale
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale
- 8 -
29. Some people have said that the governmental and economic systems in our country
are no longer able to solve our problems and need to be changed drastically.
Other people have said that while we have many problems that need to be solved
our basic economic and governmental systems are good ones and should not be
changed.
(HAND SCALE CARD)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b AND c)
Governmental and Economic
Governmental and Economic
Systems Need Drastic Change
Systems Do Not need Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place President Nixon on this scale?
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale?
30. Have you read' or heard anything about
YES
someone breaking into the Democratic
NO
headquarters in the Watergate Building
DON'T KNOW
in Washington?
(IF YES ASK:)
a. From what you have read or heard, who
REPUBLICANS
do you think was responsible for this?
PRESIDENT NIXON'S
(INTERVIEWER: ASK AS AN OPEN END
CAMPAIGN/THE COMMITTEE
QUESTION. DO NOT READ RESPONSES. CIRCLE
TO RE-ELECT THE
APPROPRIATE RESPONSE OR WRITE IN OTHER ANSWER.)
PRESIDENT
OTHER
(specify)
DON'T KNOW
31. Do you think that President Nixon himself
YES
knew anything about the incident
NO
before it occurred?
DON'T KNOW
32. Did this incident make you more likely to
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE
vote for McGovern, more likely to vote for
FOR MC GOVERN
Nixon, or not make any idfference to you in
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR
deciding how to vote?
NIXON
NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
DON'T KNOW
- 9 -
33. What is the first thing that comes to
mind when you think about President Nixon?
a. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
b. Is there anything else?
C. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
d. Now, is there anything else?
e. Is that good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
34. What is the first thing that comes to
mind when you think about George McGovern?
a. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
b. Is there anything else?
C. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
- 10 -
d. Now is there anything else?
e. Is that good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
35. Do you approve or disapprove of the
APPROVE
way Richard Nixon is handling his job
DISAPPROVE
as President?
DON'T KNOW
36. Do you approve or disapprove of the way
APPROVE
President Nixon is handling the Vietnam
DISAPPROVE
situation?
DON'T KNOW
37. Do you approve or disapprove of the way
APPROVE
President Nixon is dealing with economic
DISAPPROVE
conditions in this country?
DON'T KNOW
38. Is your impression of Richard Nixon better
BETTER
or worse, or no different, than it was
WORSE
1 year ago?
NO DIFFERENT
DON'T KNOW
(IF BETTER OR WORSE ASK:)
a. Why is your impression
39. Is your impression of George McGovern better
BETTER
or worse, or no different, than it was
WORSE
1 year ago?
NO DIFFERENT
DON'T KNOW
( IF BETTER OR WORSE, ASK:)
a. Why is your impression
- 11 -
40. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
the Federal government in general gives the
PUBLIC
public?
TRIES TO MAKE THINGS SEEM
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
41. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
President Nixon gives the public?
PUBLIC
TRIES TO MAKE THINGS SEEM
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
42. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
Senator McGovern gives the public?
PUBLIC
TRIES T.O MAKE THINGS SEEM
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
(GO TO GREEN SCALES)
43. Now I would like to ask you some questions
about the campaign. What do you think was
the main idea or message the Nixon campaign
tried to get across to convince people to
vote for him?
44. What do you think was the main idea or
message the McGovern campaign tried to
get across to convince people to vote
for him?
- 12 -
45. Where did you get your most useful information
about Richard Nixon?
46. Where did you get you most useful information
about George McGovern?
47. Now, I would like to mention a number of the
ways people get information about the
candidates and issues, and have you tell me
whether or not you recall getting any
information from each one?
(IF YES ASK a. AND b.)
a. What do you remember about it? (RECORD BELOW)
b.
How useful was the information to you? (RECORD ABOVE)
b.
Very
Not
Don't
Yes No
Useful
Somewhat
Very
Know
Radio Commercials
1
2
1
2
3
0
Television Commercials
7
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper Advertisements
1
2
1
2
3
0
Letters/direct mail
1
2
1
2
3
0
Telephone call
1
2
1
2
3
0
Personal visits by campaign worker
7
2
1
2
3
0
Campaign literature
1
2
1
2
3
0
Meetings
1
2
1
2
3
0
Radio newscasts
1
2
1
2
3
0
Television news
1
2
1
2
3
0
Magazines
1
2
1
2
3
0
Special television programs
1
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper news columns
1
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper editorials
1
2
1
2
3
0
Talking with husband/wife
1
2
1
2
3
0
Talking with neighbors/co-workers
1
2
1
2
3
0
a.
Radio Commercials
a.
Television Commercials
a.
Newspaper Advertisements
a.
Letters/direct mail
a.
Telephone call
- a.
Personal Visits by campaign worker
a.
Campaign literature
a. Meetings
a.
Râdio newscasts
13 -
a.
Television news
a. Magazines
a.
Special television programs
a.
Newspaper news columns
a. Newspaper editorials
a.
Talking with husband/wife
a. Talking with neighbors/co-workers
48. Did you personaly participate in the campaign by working for any candidate?
YES
NO
49. Now, I would like to mention a number of
events that took place during this campaign
and as I mention each one have you tell me
whether you recall the event or not
(IF YES ASK:)
a. Did it make you more likely to vote
for Richard Nixon, more likely to vote
for George McGovern, or did not make
any difference to you in deciding how
to vote.
More Likely
More Likely
No
Yes
No
Nixon
McGovern
Difference
President Nixon's trip to China
President Nixon's trip to Russia
The Humphrey/McGovern debate in
the California primary
The shooting of Governor Wallace
The bombing of North Vietnam
Senator McGovern's nomination
Nomination and dropping of
Senator Eagleton from the
Democratic ticket
[ ]
The nomination of Sargent Shriver
as Democratice Vice President
candidate
The Republican National Converntion
The nomination of Spiro Agnew as
Republican Vice President
candidate
]
[ ]
]
- 14 -
More likely
More likely
No
Yes
No
Nixon
McGovern
Difference
The Watergate incident and political
spying by Republicans
[]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
(HAND CARD
)
50. From the people on this list, who would
HUBERT HUMPHREY
have been your first choice to be
EDWARD RENNEDY
President?
GEORGE MC GOVERN
EDWARD MUSKIE
RICHARD NIXON
JOHN SCHMITZ
GEORGE WALLACE
51. Now, that the campaign is over, I would like
BETTER OFF
to ask you a few questions about the future.
WORSE OFF
Do you think that the United States as a
ABOUT THE SAME
nation will be better off, worse off, or in
DON'T KNOW
about the same shape a year from now as it
is today ?
a. Why do you say that?
52. Do you think that you and your family will
BETTER OFF
be better off, worse off, or in about
WORSE OFF
the same position a year from now as you
ABOUT THE SAME
are today?
DON'T KNOW
a. Why do you say that?
53. Some people have complained that things in our country are changing too fast, while
others say our country's problems are because there is not enough change. Others
would like to return to the way the United States used to be. On this scale card 1
would represent those people who believe we should return to the way we used to be, and
7 would represent those who are calling for more change.
Change at
Return to the past
Same Rate
More Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale
b. Where would you place President Mixon on this scale?
- 15 -
54. Now that President Nixon has been re-elected
what one thing would you most like to see
him accomplish during his second term as
President?
a. Is there anything else? (PROBE)
55. Generally speaking, do you usually think
REPUBLICAN
of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat,
DEMOCRAT
an Independent, or what?
INDEPENDENT
OTHER
DONT'T KNOW
56. (IF REPUBLICAN) Would you call yourself
STRONG
a strong Republican or a not very strong
NOT VERY STRONG
Republican
DON'T KNOW
57. (IF DEMOCRAT) Would you call yourself
a strong Democrat or a not very strong
STRONG
Democrat?
NOT VERY STRONG
DON'T KNOW
58. (IF INDEPENDENT) Do you think of yourself
as closer to the Republican or to the
REPUBLICAN
Democratic party?
DEMOCRAT
NEITHER
59. Thinking back to the last few elections before
this year, which answer on this care (HAND POLITICAL
CARD) best describes how you voted for state and
local offices such as Governor and Senator?
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
REPUBLICANS
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
NEVER VOTED
DON'T KNOW
- 16 -
60. Thinking ahead to the next few elections,
which answer on this card best describes
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
how you will vote for state and local
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
offices such as Governor and Senator?
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
REPUBLICANS
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH
PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
DON'T KNOW
61. For whom did you vote for President in 1968?
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
DIDN'T VOTE
DON'T KNOW
Now a few questions for statistical purposes
62. What is your occupation?
a. (IF RESPONDENT IS NOT HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD) What is the occupation
of the head of this household?
63. What is your approximate age? (SHOW AGE CARD)
34-35-01 17-20
02 21-24
03 25-29
04 30-34
05 35-39
06 40-44
07 45-49
08 50-54
09 55-59
10 60-64
11 65 and over
00 Refused
64. What is the last grade of school you completed?
36-1 Grade school or less (grades 1-8)
2 Some high school
3 Graduated high school (grades 9-12)
4 Vocational/Technical school
5 Some college
6 Graduated college
7 Post graduate work
0 Refused
65. What is your religion?
37-1 Roman Catholic
2 Protestant (eg. Baptist, Methodist, etc)
3 Jewish
4 Other (SPECIFY)
17 -
66.
(BY OBSERVATION) Race:
39 1 White
2 Negro
3 Oriental
4 Spanish-American
5 Other (SPECIFY)
67.
What is your nationality?
10 American/U.S
West European
20 Italian
70 Austria
30 Irish
40 Polish
71 Belgium
72 English, British
East European
73 France
50 Czechoslavakia
74 Germany
75 Netherlands
51 Estonia
76 Scottish
52 Hungry
53 Latvia
79 Other West European
54 Rumania
55 Russia
Spanish
56 Ukraine
80 Mexico
57 Yugoslavia
81 Portugal
59 Other East European
82 Spain
89 Other South American
Scandanavia
90 Other
60 Denmark
61 Finland
(Specify)
62 Norway
63 Sweden
00 Don't know
68.
Are you a labor union member?
43- 1 Yes
2 No
a. (IF "NO" ASK:) Is any member of your immediate family a union member?
44- 1 Yes
2 No
69. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
45- 1 Male
2 Female
70. (SHOW INCOME CARD) Which classification includes your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME
in 1971 before taxes?
46- 1 0-$2,999
2 $3,000-$4,999
3 $5,000-$5,999
4 $6,000-$6,999
5 $7,000-$9,999
6 $10,000-$14,999
7 $15,000-$24,999
8 $25,000 and over
0 Refused
SCALE CARD
Now I'd like to have you do something different. There are many ways you can judge
a political candidate. He can be good or bad, interesting or uninteresting, liberal
or conservative, and many other things.
We will be judging two candidates in several ways.
Let's take the liberal conservative rating below as an example. There are three
spaces on each side of the box which is exactly in the middle. If you feel the
candidate is very liberal or extremely liberal, choose one of the spaces towards
the word liberal, and mark the space with an :
X
:.' If you feel the candidate
is neither conservative nor liberal, mark the middle box
/
X
/
Use the con-
servative spaces in the same way.
Move quickly down a page. You should do a page in about one minute.
Now let's start with yourself as the example. Rate yourself on this scale
YOURSELF
Liberal
:
:
/
/
:
:
Conservative
TURN TO NEXT PAGE ***
SCALE S'REET
RICHARD NIXON
warm
:
:
/
:
:
cold
experienced
:
:
/
/
:
:
inexperienced
closed-minded
:
:
/
:
:
open-minded
trained
:
:
/
:
:
untrained
bold
:
:
:
:
timid
.
dishonest
:
:
:
:
honest
introverted
:
:
/
/
:
:
extroverted
safe
:
:
...
...
dangerous
uninformed
:
:
/
/
:
:
informed
meek
:
:
/
/
:
:
aggressive
just
:
:
/
/
:
:
unjust
incompetent
:
:
/
/
:
:
competent
frank
:
:
/
/
:
:
reserved
sense of humor
:
:
/
/
:
:
lacks humor
old-fashioned
:
:
/
/
:
:
up-to-date
tense
:
:
/
/
:
:
relaxed
tough
:
:
/
/
:
:
soft
iberal
:
:
/
:
:
conservative
SCALE SHEET
GEORGE McGOVERN
rm
:
:
/
/
:
:
cold
experienced
:
:
/
/
:
:
inexperienced
.
.
closed-minded
:
:
/
/
:
:
open-minded
trained
:
:
/
/
:
:
untrained
bold
:
:
/
/
:
:
timid
dishonest
:
:
/
/
:
:
honest
introverted
:
:
/
/
:
:
extroverted
.
safe
:
:
/
/
:
:
dangerous
uninformed
:
:
/
/
:
:
informed
meek
:
:
/
/
:
:
aggressive
just
:
:
/
/
:
:
unjust
incompetent
:
:
/
/
:
:
competent
frank
:
:
/
/
:
:
reserved
sense of humor
:
:
/
/
:
:
lacks humor
old-fashioned
:
:
/
/
:
:
up-to-date
tense
:
:
/
/
:
:
...
relaxed
tough
:
:
/
/
:-
:
soft
liberal
:
:
/
/
:
:
conservative
Committee for the Re-election of the President
DETERMINED TO BE AN
Robiny wave
MEMORANDUM
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
November 5, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Employe NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Final Newspaper Polls
Listed below are the final results from the various newspaper
polls from around the country.
CALIFORNIA Poll*
(Los Angeles Times)
October 30 - November 1, 1972
766 Telephone Interviews
Nixon
49
McGovern
35
Other
2
Undecided
14
COLORADO Poll
(Denver Post)
October 25 - November 2, 1972
1,334 Personal Interviews
Nixon
66
McGovern
26
Other
1
No Choice
.7
ILLINOIS POLL*
(Chicago Tribune)
October 27 - 30, 1972
1,541 Telephone Interviews
Nixon
58
McGovern
30
Undecided
12
- 2 -
ILLINOIS Poll
(Chicago Sun Times)
Finished Interviewing November 3, 1972
24,907 Personal Interviews (Forced Undecide)
Nixon
60
McGovern
40
IOWA Poll*
(Des Moines Register)
October 28 - 30, 1972
889 Personal Interviews
Nixon
58
McGovern
33
Other
1
Undecided
8
MASSACHUSETTS Poll*
(Boston Globe)
October 31 - November 2, 1972
700 Telephone Interviews
Nixon
39
McGovern
49
Undecided
12
MICHIGAN Poll
(Detroit News)
October 27 - 31, 1972
1,000 Personal Interviews
Nixon
49
McGovern
42
Other
1
Undecided
8
MINNESOTA Poll*
(Star Tribune)
October 27 - 29, 1972
701 Likely vote (1000 Personal Interviews)
Nixon
56
McGovern
39
Undecided
S
OHIO Poll
(Cleveland Plain Dealer)
October 30 - November 3, 1972
1200 Personal Interviews
Nixon
54
McGovern
34
Schmitz
-
Hall
-
CONTRATIAL
Undecided
12
- Less than 0.5%
- 3 -
WEST VIRGINIA Poll
(Charleston Gazette- private poll)
Forced undecided - no information available on method.
Nixon
59
McGovern
41
* In the past these polls have been stastically
the most reliable.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FRED MALEK
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Post Election Survey
Attached is the memorandum I sent to Bob before the
election. He approved the project under Teeter's
direction if MacGregor concurred. MacGregor deferred,
indicating he has no interest. Bob has withdrawn
his support of the project if Teeter is. involved.
Further, Bob has no interest in the post election survey.
However, he would not object and if someone (you or
Magruder) would approach Stans, he would neither
encourage or discourage the project. The post election
survey must survive or die on its merits. I am in
favor of it.
In addition to the materials submitted by Teeter, I have
talked with John Davies, my contact at Gallup, and
Charles Roll, an independent consultant. They propose
600 Democrats who supported the President and 1,000
independents, selected from the 3,500 respondents in
the key precincts that Gallup used in his last pre-
election survey. The cost (30-40,000) is the going
rate for a 1,600 interview personal interview survey.
The time frame for the project is:
November 13 -- approval of project
November 20 -- Approval of questionnaire
November 27 -- preparation of visuals and pretest
December 1-15 -- field interviewing
January 1 -- final report.
Please advise me if you have any interest in pursuing this
project. If not, I will turn it completely off because
the "half-life" of post-election survey information termi-
nates next week if the project is not begun.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Post-Rlection Survey
Bob Tester has submitted a proposal to MacGregor for
funds to conduct a post-election survey.
The arguments for such a survey are persuasive. Many
new techniques were used in Campaign '72 (direct mail,
telephones, issue appeals by demographics, etc.) which
should be tested to see if they influenced votes. The
cost of the survey is only 40,000, or .10 of the cash
paign budget. If the New Majority is to be sonsolidated,
a careful analysis should be made of who actually com-
prises it.
The arguments against the survey are: too costly, Survey
Research Center in Michigan will do one anyhow, and the
Gallup Survey will conduct a post-election survey.
However, the money from the Campaign is available according
to Tom Evans who says there will be a surplus. The other
post-election surveys will not have the political focus
necessary to be of value.
The hard question is whether Teeter and MOR or Bemham and
ORC should conduct the survey. In spite of reservations
about Tester's political advice, he and his polling staff
have been intimately involved in the planning and detail
strategy implementation. They are familiar with what many
of the techniques tried to do and should be the ones to
test whether the techniques worked. Although Benham and
ORC would be more objective, their phrasing of the questions
and analysis would not go after the information as well as
Teeter.
- 2 -
Recommendation:
That you approve a post-election, nationwide field survey
conducted by Teeter and MOR subject to questionnaire
approval by you.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
Teeter's proposal is attached.
GS/jb
of
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
Emprise E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
November 3, 1972
By
5-22-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Post Election Analysis
In addition to the internal analysis of the campaign you asked
for I think that our post election analysis should contain two
other components, The most important of these is a post
election survey. While post election data is useful after most
campaigns there are several reasons why I think it is important
for this one.
1) We have spent something close to 45 million dollars this year.
We put a great deal more emphasis on techniques such as mail
and telephone than has been done in previous presidential
campaigns. We should find out which of the techniques were
effective and why.
2) It appears that this campaign is going to create some
significant new voting patterns. We should find out what
the important factors were in attracting these new voters
and how we can keep them.
3) The 18 year old vote brought a large new segment of voters into
the electorate. We should find out what affected them and
how to approach them in the future.
4) The campaign and the election undoubtedly have had an effect
on the mood of the country, the issue structure, and the
perception of the President and the administration. Data on
the President and the issues would be useful to him and the
White House steff in planning the Inaugural, their congressional
proposals, and the staffing of the second administration.
- 2 -
The basic element of such a study should be a national sample
of at least 1500 personal interviews.
Along with this national poll, it would also be useful to sample
a few procincts where our campaign was active organizationally
and with the mail and telephone programs.
The general areas this study would cover are:
-- National issue structure
-- Perception of the candidates
--- Perception of the campaign
-- Sources of information
- Impact of campaign techniques -- advertising, mail, telephone
--- Key elements of voting decisions
-- Timing of voting decisions
--- Expectations of a second Nixon administration
This project would cost $40-50,000 which represents 1% of the
total budget for evaluation.
Also, MOR is going to do three or four state after election
panel studies for their own use. These could be tied to the national
study to give us a comparison of some of the key states and the
national data. They "re definitely going to do Michigan and will
pick other states on the day after the election.
We necd a decision on the national poll by Sunday or Monday to
begin interviewing immediately siter the election. If you approve
it, I will draft ¿ questionnaire for you this weekend; we can
finalize it on Wednesday, and begin interviewing Friday or Saturday.
The second component I think should be added to our post election
analysis is a detailed voting analysis to see where we did change
voting patterns. A preliminary analysis can be done as soon as we
get county returns. A more detailed analysis will have to wait
until precinct data is available. This will undoubtedly be at
least the first of the year. If you agree with this part of the
proposch, 1 will prepare a detailed description of the analysis that
should be done after the election.
It would be a misushe for us to close down the campaign and not
have our evaluation include au analysis of the actual result.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FRED MALEK
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Post Election Survey
Attached is the memorandum I sent to Bob before the
election. He approved the project under Teeter's
direction if MacGregor concurred. MacGregor deferred,
indicating he has no interest. Bob has withdrawn
his support of the project if Tester is involved.
Further, Bob has notinterest in the post election survey.
However, he would not object and if someone (you or
Magruder) would approach Stans, he would neither
encourage or discourage the project. The post election
survey must survive or die on its merits. I am in
favor of it.
In addition to the materials submitted by Teater, I have
talked with John Davies, my contact at Gallup, and
Charles Roll, an independent consultant. They propose
600 Democrats who supported the President and 1,000
independents, selected from the 3,500 respondents in
the key precincts that Gallup used in his last pre-
election survey. The cost (30-40,000) is the going
rate for a 1,600 interview personal interview survey.
The time frame for the project is:
Nevember 13 - approval of project
November 20 - Approval of questionnaire
November 27 -- preparation of visuals and pretest
December 1-15 -- field interviewing
January 1 -- final report.
Please advise me if you have any interest in pursuing this
project. If not, I will turn it completely off because
the "half-life" of post-election survey information termi-
nates next week if the project is not begun.
GS/jb
A. If it became necessary to either raise taxes or cut Government spending,
which would you prefer be done?
If Government spending, here's a list (HAND CARD ) of the major areas
of Government spending. In which of these areas do you think spending
should be cut first?
a. In which of these areas do you think spending should be cut second?
b. In which of these areas do you think spending should be cut third?
C. Are there any other of these areas where you think Government spending
should be cut?
B. Now I'd like to mention several other areas and proposals that have been
made to you and as I mention each one I'd like you to tell me whether or
not you would be willing to have your taxes increased if the money were
used for that activity.
C. If it became absolutely necessary to raise taxes would you prefer this be
done by raising the income tax, raising property taxes, or raising sales taxes?
D. Generally do you think the tax structure in our' country is fair or not fair
to the average person?
(IF NO, ASK a)
a. Do you think national, state or local taxes are least fair?
b. Do you think the problem is primarily that the whole tax system is unfair
and needs to be changed or that there are too many loopholes that let
some people get by without paying their fair share?
E. Are you in favor of retaining local property taxes as the primary means of
financing education or would you favor replacing local property taxes with a
value added tax which is a type of national sales tax?
These are responses to
Mass Transit
Pollution Control
Aid to Senior Citizens
Welfare
Economic Aid to Under-developed Countries
National Defense
Federal Aid to Public Education
Federal Aid to Colleges and Universities
Medical Research
Housing
Farm Subsidies
A. If it became necessary to either raise taxes or cut Government spending,
which would you prefer be done?
If Government spending, here's a list (HAND CARD ) of the major areas
of Government spending. In which of these areas do you think spending
should be cut first?
a. In which of these areas do you think spending should be cut second?
b. In which of these areas do you think spending should be cut third?
C. Are there any other of these areas where you think Government spending
should be cut?
B. Now I'd like to mention several other areas and proposals that have been
made to you and as I mention each one I'd like you to tell me whether or
not you would be willing to have your taxes increased if the money were
used for that activity.
C. If it became absolutely necessary to raise taxes would you prefer this be
done by raising the income tax, raising property taxes, or raising sales taxes?
D. Generally do you think the tax structure in our country is fair or not fair
to the average person?
(IF NO, ASK a)
a. Do you think national, state or local taxes are least fair?
b. Do you think the problem is primarily that the whole tax system is unfair
and needs to be changed or that there are too many loopholes that let
some people get by without paying their fair share?
E. Are you in favor of retaining local property taxes as the primary means of
financing education or would you favor replacing local property taxes with a
value added tax which is a type of national sales tax?
These are responses to
Mass Transit
Pollution Control
Aid to Senior Citizens
Welfare
Economic Aid to Under-developed Countries
National Defense
Federal Aid to Public Education
Federal Aid to Colleges and Universities
Medical Research
Housing
Farm Subsidies
Davies + Roll
20,000 - names + addresses
+ 1600 sample intererewed
surveyed before elec.
now.
argue that get people
media motivation tast
you're Domiliar abl
- use well done visuals
- people don't remember,
so
Unailed aided recall
- photois of drect mail,
Secrently
1500 - nate + 250 re -
1 Series interview of ?s could
etemenate etao of
past cote
-similar to turnout
scale
add ? S re Fed Bureace
-demenoien of concern
How many ees does DOD
have
add Free +Cantrel ladder
? re future -Moll Here
country has more positive irea
Pol Surveys + Cenal Inct ownedly
Gal affil
on Gallup
Gal Interviewers
Gal sample
Gal Staff codingt processing
Recheldlert Baler
Gal Facilities avail to pol walk
5 coep companies
all in same bedy.
Dec three man - Dr Gal in Babanant
Only Role equits access. + Davies write report +
Paul Peny citcess - boss of Role but NO
Cost : 1500 - for 1/2 he intericew
20
30,000-40,000
must Begin in 2 was
Take Final Precent - 3500 -
600, - OFN+ 1000 indo T/S
wind before election
1600 Post Elec Survey- - to as. T/S.
H Time frame:
non - go
1 week devel ?s
+/
4
Pretest approval + + Viouals
2-3 weeks
-To - Dield 12/1 - prols w/intew
Out of Feld 12/15 -
- Jan L
1/2 at Field
1/2 out
THE WHITE HOUSE
505
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Post Election Survey
Clark MacGregor accepted the Bob Teeter suggestion of
a post election survey. MacGregor told Teeter he might
talk to you about the best way to approach Stans for the
money (40,000).
Notnie!
The rough draft questionnaire from Teeter is attached.
There are no questions on tax reform and alternative
budget cuts to stay within the 250 billion budget. Teeter
will develop these questions.
The only people who know of the survey are MacGregor,
Reisner, Teeter, and Magruder. You may want to discuss
the subject with Ehrlichman and ask him if he wants
particular substantive issues explored.
Teeter hopes to get your comments, re-submit a final
questionnaire, and obtain final approval Wednesday so
that interviewing can begin Thursday and Friday. The
bulk of the interviewing would be done over the weekend.
The wrap-up questionnaires to assure demographic balance
would be done during the week of November 13. The
results would be available by December 1.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
November 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RanT
SUBJECT:
Post Election Poll
Attached is a draft questionnaire for the national after
election study.
It is obviously too long to actually be done in the field. It
was designed to give us an opportunity to look at several different
areas and types of questions. Virtually all of the candidate and
issue questions are the same as we asked in Wave II and or III
SO that we can identify trends.
In addition to this questionnaire which will be used for the national
we will administer a short form to those individuals we find who
are registered but did not vote. We will also use a shorter form
of this questionnaire to do the four state panels MOR is going to do.
We should meet sometime early Wednesday a.m. to finalize the questionnaire
so we can begin interviewing Thursday and Friday.
Hello, I'm
of Market Opinion :. earch. We are making a study of the
recent nation 11 election and 1 would like to ask you a few questions.
1. Were you resistered to vote in the
YES
election last Tuesday?
NO
(IF YES, GO TO QUESTION 2, IF NO TERMINATE)
2. Did' you vote in the election last Tuesday? YES
NO
(IF YES CONTINUE, IF NO ADMINISTER YELLOW QUESTIONNAIRE)
3.
Did you vote for Richard Nixon, the
RICHARD NIXON
Republican, or George McGovern the
GEORGE MC GOVERN
Democrat for President?
OTHER
REFUSED
4.
(IF VOTED FOR NIXON ASK) Would you say
FOR NIXON
you voted more for Nixon or against
AGAINST MC GOVERN
McGovern
(IF FOR NIXON ASK a, IF AGAINST MC GOVERN, ASK b)
a. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote for
Nixon? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:)
What is the one thing that stands
out most in your mind?
b. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote against
McGovern? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:)
What is the one thing that stands out
most in your mind?
5.
(IF VOTED FOR MC GOVERN ASK:)
FOR MC GOVERN
Would you say you voted more for
AGAINST NIXON
McGovern or against Nixon?
(IF FOR MC GOVERN ASK a, IF AGAINST NIXON ASK b)
a. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important thing
that caused you to vote for McGovern?
(PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:) What is the
one thing that stands out most in your
mind?
- 2 -
b. Looking back at the whole presidential
campaign, what was the most important
thing that caused you to vote against
Nixon? (PROBE) (IF NEEDED, ASK:) What
is the one thing that stands out most in
your mind?
6. Again, looking back at the whole presidential
BEFORE EITHER OF THE NOMINATING
campaign, when did you finally make up your
CONVENTIONS
mind how you would vote for the President?
AFTER THE DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION
(MARK APPROPRIATE CATEGORY, READ CHOICES ONLY
AFTER THE REPUBLICAN
IF RESPONDENT NEEDS HELP)
CONVENTION
DURING SEPTEMBER
Interviewer Information:
DURING THE LAST HALF
Democratic Convention - July 10-13
OF OCTOBER
Republican Convention
- August 21-24
DURING THE LAST WEEK BEFORE
THE ELECTION
ON THE DAY BEFORE OR
ON ELECTION DAY
7.
Did you at any time during the campaign
YES
change your mind about who you were
NO
going to vote for?
(IF YES ASK a AND b)
a. When did you change your mind?
b. What caused you to change your mind?
(ASK ONLY IF THERE WAS A U.S. SENATE RACE IN STATE IN WHICH YOU ARE INTERVIEWING,
CONSULT INSTRUCTION)
8
Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator?
DEMOCRATIC
OTHER
(ASK ONLY IF THERE WAS A GOVERNOR'S RACE IN STATE IN WHICH YOU ARE INTERVIEWING,
CONSULT INSTRUCTION)
9.
Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for Governor?
DEMOCRATIC
OTHER
3
10. Did you vote for the Republican or
REPUBLICAN
Democratic candidate for Congress
DEMOCRATIC
in your district?
OTHER
11. Now thinking about all of the races
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
on the Ballot in the election last
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
Tuesday, which answer on this card
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
best describes how you voted?
REPUBLICANS
(HAND POLITICAL CARD)
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
DON'T KNOW
12. What do you think are the most
important problems facing the United
bmor
States as a Nation at this time (PROBE)
need for Trenos
13. Which one of these do you think is the
single most important problem facing
the United States (CIRCLE JUST ONE OF THE
ABOVE)
2)
a. What do you think should be done about it?
14. Do you feel things in the country are
RIGHT DIRECTION
generally going in the right direction
WRONG TRACK
today, or do you feel things have pretty
DON'T KNOW
seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
- 4 -
15. I'd like to hand you a group of cards. On each card is a problem or issue facing
our country. like you to hand me the card that was most important to you
in deciding how to vote for President this fall. Then hand me the card with the
problem that was second most important to you, and continue handing me the
cards in order of their importance until you have handed me all of the cards.
(HAND ISSUE CARDS AND BE SURE TO ROTATE THEM.)
(LIST PROBLEMS IN THE ORDER THEY ARE HANDED BACK TO YOU 1, 2, 3, 4
)
Drugs
Taxes
Health Care
Vietnam
Unemployment
Racial Problems
Foreign Policy
National Defense
Crime
Inflation
Pollution/
Environment
Busing
General Unrest
Welfare
Corruption
16. Now, I'd like to read through the list of problems and issues again and as I
mention each one I'd like you to rate President Nixon on his ability to handle
each one. (HAND ABILITY CARD) (ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU MENTION ISSUES)
Extremely
Very
Fairly
Not Very
Not at
Well
Well
Well
Well
All Well
Drugs
5
4
3
2
1
Taxes
5
4
3
2
1
Health Care
5
4
3
2
1
Vietnam
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment
5
4
3
2
1
Racial Problems
5
4
3
2
1
Foreign Policy
5
4
3
2
1
National Defense
5
4
3
2
1
Crime
5
4
3
2
1
Inflation
5
4
3
2
1
Pollution/Environment
5
4
3
2
1
Busing
5
4
3
2
1
General Unrest
5
4
3
2
1
Welfare
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
5
4
3
2
1
- 5 -
17. Now, I'd like to go through the list once more and have you rate George McGovern
on his ability to handle each problem. (ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU MENTION ISSUES)
Extremely
Very
Fairly
Not Very
Not at
Well
Well
Wel
Well
All Well
Drugs
5
4
3
2.
1
Taxes
5
4
3
2
1
Health Care
5
4
3
2
1
Vietnam
5
4
3
2
1
Unemployment
5
4
3
2
1
Racial Problems
5
4
3
2
1
Foreign Policy
5
4
3
2
1
National Defense
5
4
3
2
1
Crime
5
4
3
2
1
Inflation
5
4
3
2
1
Pollution/Environment
5
4
3
2
1
Busing
5
4
3
2
1
General Unrest
5
4
3
2
1
Welfare
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
weeks
18. Did the developments in the Vietnam
RICHARD NIXON
War peace negotiations during the last
GEORGE MC GOVERN
few days of the campaign make you more
NO DIFFERENCE
likely to vote for Richard Nixon,
DON'T KNOW
more likely to vote for George McGovern
or not make any difference to you in deciding
how to vote?
19. Regarding Vietnam, do you think the peace
FAVORS COMMUNISTS
terms now being discussed are more favorable
FAIR TO BOTH SIDES
to the Communist side, more favorable to
FAVORS U.S. AND VIETNAM
the U.S. and South Vietnamese side, fair to
DON' KNOW
both sides, or don't you know?
20. The charge has been made that President
AGREE
Nixon could have made the Vietnam peace
DISAGREE
settlement long ago and that he delayed
DON'T KNOW
it just to help his reelection. Do you
agree or disagree with this charge?
- 6 -
21. After the U.S. finally withdraws all its
REMAIN NON COMMUNIST
forces from Vietnam, do you expect
COMMUNISTS WILL TAKE
South Vietnam to remain a non-communist
IT OVER
country or do you think it is likely that
DON'T KNOW
the communists will take it over?
22. After the war is over do you think the
SHOULD
United States should or should not
SHOULD NOT
help rebuild Vietnam?
DON'T KNOW
23.
Some people have said that having a strong national defense at least equal to
Trand
the Russians and Chinese is the best hope for peace. Others have said that
we have more important needs in our own country and that we should spend more of
our money on domestic programs even if it means that our military strength
would be less than some other countries. On this scale card 1 would represent
those people who believe we should have a national defense at least as strong as
the Russians and Chinese and 7 would represent those who think we should spend
less on national defense and more on domestic programs even if it leaves our
military strength less than some other country. (HAND SCALE CARD 22)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b, c.)
Spend At Home and
Strong National Defense
Less Strong Defense
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place; President Nixon on this scale?
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale?
24. Do you think that we should spend more, about the same amount, or less money
on national defense in the next few years as we are now?
17-1 Spend less
2 About the same amount
3 Spend more
0 Don't know
- 7 -
25.
There has been some discussion lately of ammesty, that is, forgiveness, for
those who have left the country or gone to prison to avoid the draft during
the Vietnam War. Which of the courses of action on this card would you most
like to see the government take?
Trend
1 GRANT UNCONDITIONAL AMNESTY NOW
2 GRANT UNCONDITIONAL AMNESTY AFTER THE WAR IS OVER AND OUR
PRISONERS OF WAR HAVE BEEN RETURNED
3 GRANT ANNESTY AFTER THE WAR IS OVER, BUT REQUIRE TWO YEARS
OF SOME TYPE OF GOVERNMENT SERVICE
4 GRANT AMNESTY AFTER THE WAR IS OVER, BUT REQUIRE AN
APPROPRIATE PENALTY
5 NOT GRANT ANNESTY AT ALL
6 DON'T KNOW
a.
(REFER TO *CARD "E.") Which of these
positions do you think Richard Nixon favors?
(Record number of response)
b. (REFFR TO CARD "E.") Which of these
positions do you think George McGovern favors?
(Record number of response)
26.
Considering the whole economic situation,
UNEMPLOYMENT
?
which one of these concerns you most --
INFLATION
unemployment, inflation, or taxes?
TAXES
DON'T KNOW
27.
Generally speaking, do you believe the
YES
steps taken by President Nixon have
?
NO
slowed inflation?
DON'T KNOW
28.
Some People say that giving certain tax breaks to business will create more jobs.
Others say that business now receives too many tax breaks. (HAND SCALE CARD)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b AND c)
Create More Jobs
Too Many Tax Breaks
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place President Nixon on this scale
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale
- 8 -
29. Some people have said that the governmental and economic systems in our country
are no longer able to solve our problems and need to be changed drastically.
Other people have said that while we have many problems that need to be solved
our basic economic and governmental systems are good- ones and should not be
changed.
(HAND SCALE CARD)
(ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK b AND c)
Governmental and Economic
Governmental and Economic
Systems Need Drastic Change
Systems Do Not need Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
b. Where would you place President Nixon on this scale?
C. Where would you place George McGovern on this scale?
30. Have you read or heard anything about
YES
hater
someone breaking into the Democratic
NO
headquarters in the Watergate Building
DON'T KNOW
in Washington?
(IF YES ASK:)
at
and
a. From what you have read or heard, who
REPUBLICANS
do you think was responsible for this?
PRESIDENT NIXON'S
(INTERVIEWER: ASK AS AN OPEN END
CAMPAIGN/THE COMMITTEE
QUESTION. DO NOT READ RESPONSES. CIRCLE
TO RE-ELECT THE
APPROPRIATE RESPONSE OR WRITE IN OTHER ANSWER.)
PRESIDENT
OTHER
(specify)
Watargete
DON'T KNOW
31. Do you think that President Nixon himself
YES
h
knew anything about the incident
NO
before it occurred?
DON'T KNOW
1
32. Did this incident make you more likely to
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE
vote for McGovern, more likely to vote for
FOR MC GOVERN
Nixon, or not make any idfference to you in
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR
deciding how to vote?
NIXON
NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
DON'T KNOW
- 9 -
33. What is the first thing that comes to
mind when you think about President Nixon?
a. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
b. Is there anything else?
C. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
d. Now, is there anything else?
e. Is that good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
34. What is the first thing that comes to
mind when you think about George McGovern?
a. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
b. Is there anything else?
C. Do you consider this good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
- 10 -
d. Now is there anything else?
e. Is that good or bad?
GOOD
BAD
NEITHER
35. Do you approve or disapprove of the
APPROVE
way Richard Nixon is handling his job
DISAPPROVE
as President?
DON'T KNOW
36. Do you approve or disapprove of the way
APPROVE
President Nixon is handling the Vietnam
DISAPPROVE
situation?
DON'T KNOW
37. Do you approve or disapprove of the way
APPROVE
President llixon is dealing with economic
DISAPPROVE
conditions in this country?
DON'T KNOW
38
Is your impression of Richard Nixon better
BETTER
new
or worse, or no different, than it was
WORSE
1 year ago?
NO DIFFERENT
DON'T KNOW
(IF BETTER OR WORSE ASK:)
a. Why is your impression
- -ado: what's the SI thing you remember learning about Georg?
39. Is your impression of George McGovern better
BETTER
or worse, or no different, than it was
WORSE
1 year ago?
NO DIFFERENT
DON'T KNOW
( IF BETTER OR WORSE, ASK:)
a. Why is your impression
- 11 -
40. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
the Federal government in general gives the
PUBLIC
public?
TRIES TO MAKE THINGS SEEM
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
41. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
President Nixon gives the public?
PUBLIC
TRIES TO MAKE THINGS SEEM
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
42. Which of the statements on this card best
ALWAYS FRANK AND
describes how you feel about the information
TRUTHFUL WITH THE
Senator McGovern gives the public?
PUBLIC
TRIES TO MAKE THINGS SEEM
-aso un Credibility
MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
REALLY ARE
HOLDS BACK OR SLANTS
INFORMATION THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE LOOK BAD
NO OPINION
(GO TO GREEN SCALES)
43. Now I would like to ask you some questions
about the campaign. What do you think was
the main idea or message the Nixon campaign
tried to get across to convince people to
vote for him?
44. What do you think was the main idea or
message the McGovern campaign tried to
get across to convince people to vote
for him?
- 12 -
45. Where did you get your most useful information
about Richard Nixon?
46. Where did you get you most useful information
about George McGovern?
47. Now, I would like to mention a number of the
ways people get information about the
candidates and issues, and have you tell me
whether or not you recall getting any
Similar to m I
information from each one?
(IF YES ASK a. AND b.)
not
3
a. What do you remember about it?
RECORD BELOW
b.
How useful was the information to you? (RECORD ABOVE)
b.
Very
Not
Don't
Yes No
Useful
Somewhat
Very
Know
Radio Commercials
1
2
1
2
3
0
Television Commercials
1
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper Advertisements
1
2
1
2
3
0
Letters/direct mail
1
2
1
2
3
0
Telephone call
1
2
1
2
3
0
Personal visits by campaign worker
1
2
1
2
3
0
Campaign literature
1
2
1
2
3
0
Meetings
1
2
1
2
3
0
Radio newscasts
1
2
1
2
3
0
Television news
1
2
1
2
3
0
Magazines
1
2
1
2
3
0
Special television programs
1
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper news columns
1
2
1
2
3
0
Newspaper editorials
1
2
1
2
3
0
Talking with husband/wife
1
2
1
2
3
0
Talking with neighbors/co-workers
1
2
1
2
3
0
a.
Radio Commercials
a.
Television Commercials
a.
Newspaper Advertisements
a.
Letters/direct mail
a.
Telephone call
a.
Personal Visits by campaign worker
a.
Campaign literature
a.
Meetings
a.
Radio newscasts
13 -
a.
Television news
a.
Magazines
a.
Special television programs
a.
Newspaper news columns
a.
Newspaper editorials
a.
Talking with husband/wife
a.
Talking with neighbors/co-workers
48. Did you personaly participate in the campaign by working for any candidate?
YES
NO
49. Now, I would like to mention a number of
1
The
events that took place during this campaign
and as I mention each one have you tell me
+/abcame
whether you recall the event or not
(IF YES ASK:)
- who sen Psaep
comp more
Did it make you more likely to vote
for Richard Nixon, more likely to vote
for George McGovern, or did not make
any difference to you in deciding how
to vote.
More Likely More Likely
No
Yes
No
Nixon
McGovern
Difference
President Nixon's trip to China
President Nixon's trip to Russia
The Humphrey/McGovern debate in
the California primary
The shooting of Governor Wallace
The bombing of North Vietnam
Senator McGovern's nomination
Nomination and dropping of
Senator Eagleton from the
Democratic ticket
The nomination of Sargent Shriver
as Democratice Vice President
candidate
The Republican National Converntion
The nomination of Spiro Agnew as
Republican Vice President
candidate
[
The un settlement
of
- 14 -
More likely More likely
No
Yes
No
Nixon
McGovern
Difference
The Watergate incident and political
spying by Republicans
[]
[ ]
[]
[ ]
[]
(HAND CARD
)
50. From the people on this list, who would
HUBERT HUMPHREY
have been your first choice to be
EDWARD RENNEDY
President?
GEORGE MC GOVERN
for x was the
EDWARD MUSKIE
trace
RICHARD NIXON
JOHN SCHMITZ
2590ufts Hivoters Rop for
GEORGE WALLACE
51. Now, that the campaign is over, I would like
BETTER OFF
to ask you a few questions about the future.
WORSE OFF
Do you think that the United States as a
ABOUT THE SAME
nation will be better off, worse off, or in
DON'T KNOW
about the same shape a year from now as it
is today ?
a. Why do you say that?
52. Do you think that you and your family will
BETTER OFF
be better off, worse off, or in about
WORSE OFF
the same position a year from now as you
ABOUT THE SAME
are today?
DON'T KNOW
a. Why do you say that?
53. Some people have complained that things in our country are changing too fast, while
others say our country's problems are because there is not enough change. Others
would like to return to the way the United States used to be. On this scale card 1
would represent those people who believe we should return to the way we used to be, and
7 would represent those who are calling for more change.
Change at
Return to the past
Same Rate
More Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a. Where would you place yourself on this scale
b. Where verid you place President Mixon on this scale?
- 15 -
54. Now that President Nixon has been re-elected
what one thing would you most like to see
him accomplish during his second term as
President?
a.
Is there anything else? (PROBE)
55. Generally speaking, do you usually think
REPUBLICAN
of. yourself as a Republican, a Democrat,
DEMOCRAT
an Independent, or what?
INDEPENDENT
OTHER
DONT'T KNOW
56. (IF REPUBLICAN) Would you call yourself
STRONG
a strong Republican or a not very strong
NOT VERY STRONG
Republican
DON'T KNOW
5%. (IF DEMOCRAT) Would you call yourself
I
a strong Democrat or a not very strong
xhesa
STRONG
Democrat?
NOT VERY STRONG
DON'T KNOW
5%. (IF INDEPENDENT) Do you think of yourself
as closer to the Republican or to the
REPUBLICAN
Democratic party?
DEMOCRAT
NEITHER
59. Thinking back to the last few elections before
this year, which answer on this care (HAND POLITICAL
CARD) best describes how you voted for state and
local offices such as Governor and Senator?
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
REPUBLICANS
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
NEVER VOTED
DON'T KNOW
- 16 -
60. Thinking ahead to the next few elections,
which answer on this card best describes
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
how you will vote for state and local
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
offices such as Governor and Senator?
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
REPUBLICANS
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH
PARTIES
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
DON T KNOW
61. For whom did you vote for President in 1968?
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
DIDN'T VOTE
DON'T KNOW
Now a few questions for statistical purposes
62. What is your occupation?
a. (IF RESPONDENT IS NOT HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD) What is the occupation
of the head of this household?
63. What is your approximate age? (SHOW AGE CARD)
34-35-01 17-20
02 21-24
03 25-29
04 30-34
05 35-39
06 40-44
07 45-49
08 50-54
09 55-59
10 60-64
11 65 and over
00 Refused
64. What is the last grade of school you completed?
36-7 Grade school or less (grades 1-8)
2 Some high school
3 Graduated high school (grades 9-12)
4 Vocational/Technical school
5 Some college
6 Graduated college
7 Post graduate work
0 Refused
65. What is your religion?
37-1 Roman Catholic
2 Protestant (eg. Baptist, Methodist, etc)
3 Jewish
4 Other (SPECIFY)
17 -
66.
(BY OBSERVATION) Race:
39 1 White
2 Negro
3 Oriental
4 Spanish-American
5 Other (SPECIFY)
67. What is your nationality?
10 American/U.S
West European
20 Italian
70 Austria
30 Irish
40 Polish
71 Belgium
72 English, British
East European
73 France
50 Czechoslavakia
74 Germany
75 Netherlands
51 Estonia
76 Scottish
52 Hungry
53 Latvia
79 Other West European
54 Rumania
55 Russia
Spanish
56 Ukraine
80 Mexico
57 Yugoslavia
81 Portugal
59 Other East European
82 Spain
89 Other South American
Scandanavia
90 Other
60 Denmark
61 Finland
(Specify)
62 Norway
63 Sweden
00 Don't know
68. Are you a labor union member?
43- 1 Yes
2 No
a. (IF "NO" ASK:) Is any member of your immediate family a union member?
44- 1 Yes
2 No
69. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
45- 1 Male
2 Female
70. (SHOW INCOME CARD) Which classification includes your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME
in 1971 before taxes?
46- 1 0-$2,999
2 $3,000-$4,999
3 $5,000-$5,999
4 $6,000-$6,999
5 $7,000-$9,999
6 $10,000-314,999
7 $15,000-$24,999
8 $25,000 and over
0 Refused
SCALE CARD
Now I'd like to have you do something different. There are many ways you can judge
a political candidate. He can be good or bad, interesting or uninteresting, liberal
or conservative, and many other things.
We will be judging two candidates in several ways.
Let's take the liberal conservative rating below as an example, There are three
spaces on each side of the box which is exactly in the middle. If you feel the
candidate is very liberal or extremely liberal, choose one of the spaces towards
the word liberal, and mark the space with an :
X
:.'
If you feel the candidate
is neither conservative nor liberal, mark the middle box /
X
/. . Use the con-
servative spaces in the same way.
Move quickly down a page. You should do a page in about one minute.
Now let's start with yourself as the example. Rate yourself on this scale
YOURSELF
Liberal
:
:
/
/
:
:
Conservative
TURN TO NEXT PAGE
SCALE STREET
RICHARD NIXON
warm
:
:
I
/
::
:
cold
experienced
:
:
/
/
:
:
inexperienced
closed-minded
:
:
I
:
:
open-minded
trained
:
:
/
:
:
untrained
bold
:
:
:
:
timid
dishonest
:
:
/
:
:
honest
introverted
:
:
/
:
:
extroverted
safe
:
:
/
:
:
dangerous
uninformed
:
:
/
:
:
informed
meek
:
:
/
/
:
:
aggressive
just
:
:
/
/
:
:
unjust
incompetent
:
:
/
/
:
:
competent
.
frank
:
:
/
/
:
:
reserved
sense of humor
:
:
/
/
:
:
Tacks humor
old-fashioned
:
:
/
/
:
:
up-to-date
tense
:
:
/
/
:
:
relaxed
tough
:
:
/
/
:
:
soft
iboral
:
:
/
:
:
conservative
SCALE SHEET
GEORGE McGOVERN
rm
:
:
/
/
:
:
cold
experienced
:
:
/
/
:
.
:
inexper
.
closed-minded
:
:
/
/
:
:
open-minded
trained
:
:
/
/
:
:
untrained
:
bold
:
:
/
/
:
:
timid
dishonest
:
:
/
/
:
:
honest
introverted
:
:
/
/
:
:
extroverted
safe
:
:
/
/
:
:
dangerous
uninformed
:
:
/
/
:
:
informed
meek
:
:
/
/
:
:
aggressive
just
:
:
/
/
:
:
unjust
incompetent
:
:
/
/
:
:
competent
frank
:
:
/
/
:
:
reserved
sense of humor
:
:
/
/
:
:
lacks human
old-fashioned
:
:
/
/
:
:
up-to-date
tense
:
:
/
/
:
:
...
relaxed
tough
:
:
/
/
:
:
soft
liberal
:
:
/
/
:
:
conservative
THE WHITE HOUSE
GS
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Post-Election Survey
Bob Teeter has submitted a proposal to MacGregor for
funds to conduct a post-election survey.
The arguments for such a survey are persuasive. Many
new techniques were used in Campaign '72 (direct mail,
telephones, issue appeals by demographics, etc.) which
should be tested to see if they influenced votes. The
cost of the survey is only 40,000, or .1% of the cam-
paign budget. If the New Majority is to be consolidated,
a careful analysis should be made of who actually com-
prises it.
The arguments against the survey are: too costly, Survey
Research Center in Michigan will do one anyhow, and the
Gallup Survey will conduct a post-election survey.
However, the money from the Campaign is available according
to Tom Evans who says there will be a surplus. The other
post-election surveys will not have the political focus
necessary to be of value.
The hard question is whether Teeter and MOR or Benham and
ORC should conduct the survey. In spite of reservations
about Teeter's political advice, he and his polling staff
have been intimately involved in the planning and detail
strategy implementation. They are familiar with what many
of the techniques tried to do and should be the ones to
test whether the techniques worked. Although Benham and
ORC would be more objective, their phrasing of the questions
and analysis would not go after the information as well as
Teeter.
- 2 -
Recommendation:
That you approve a post-election, nationwide field survey
conducted by Teeter and MOR subject to questionnaire
approval by you.
Approve H/ Disapprove
Comments if Mackuga L agrees
Teeter' proposal is attached.
bettre sh Center
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE
November 3, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102 ING
By EmPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80
DENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Post Election Analysis
In addition to the internal analysis of the campaign you asked
for I think that our post election analysis should contain two
other components. The most important of these is a post
election survey. While post election data is useful after most
campaignsthere are several reasons why I think it is important
for this one.
1) We have spent something close to 45 million dollars this year.
We put a great deal more emphasis on techniques such as mail
and telephone than has been done in previous presidential
campaigns. We should find out which of the techniques were
effective and why.
2) It appears that this campaign is going to create some
significant new voting patterns. We should find out what
the important factors were in attracting these new voters
and how we can keep them.
3) The 18 year old vote brought a large new segment of voters into
the electorate. We should find out what affected them and
how to approach them in the future.
4) The campaign and the election undoubtedly have had an effect
on the mood of the country, the issue structure, and the
perception of the President and the administration. Data on
the President and the issues would be useful to him and the
White House staff in planning the Inaugural, their congressional
proposals, and the staffing of the second administration.
2
The basic element of such a study should be a national sample
of at least 1500 personal interviews.
Along with this national poll, it would also be useful to sample
a few precinets where our campaign was active organizationally
and with the mail and telephone programs.
The general areas this study would cover are:
-- National issue structure
-- Perception of the candidates
-- Perception of the campaign
--- Sources of information
-- Impact of campaign techniques -- advertising, mail, telephone
-- Key elements of voting decisions
-- Timing of voting decisions
-- Expectations of a second Nixon administration
This project would cost $40-50,000 which represents .1% of the
total budget for evaluation.
Also, MOR is going to do three or four state after election
panel studies for their own use. These could be tied to the national
study to give us a comparison of some of the key states and the
national data. They are definitely going to do Michigan and will
pick other states on the day after the election.
We need a decision on the national poll by Sunday or Monday to
begin interviewing immediately after the election. If you approve
it, I will draft a questionnaire for you this weekend; we can
finalize it on Wednesday, and begin interviewing Friday or Saturday.
The second component I think should be added to our post election
analysis is a detailed voting analysis to see where we did change
voting patterns. A preliminary analysis can be done as soon as we
get county returns. A more detailed analysis will have to wait
until precinct data is available. This will undoubtedly be at
least the first of the year. If you agree with this part of the
proposal, I will prepare a detailed description of the analysis that
should be done after the election.
It would be a mistake for us to close down the campaign and not
have our evaluation include an analysis of the actual result.
Road clion of the cident
MEMO'S
November 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER ml
SUBJECT:
Electoral Vote Survey
Attached is an estimate of our current position in all 51
electoral jurisdictions. It is based on the latest polling
information available, the trend of the data, and past
electoral behavior.
It is, in our judgement, a conservative estimate, and takes
into consideration the probability we will lose three or
four points on election day. With our high level of sup-
port among key Democrats, we have to assume a few of them
will return to the fold when actually confronted with the
voting decision.
However, "as of today" we would probably carry everything
but Massachusetts and the District.
Commin for no-election of the Resident
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
November 3, 1972
By EmPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Current Polling Data
We just received preliminary data from the Detroit News
and Minnesota Poll which will be published Sunday. In both
cases this is preliminary data and may change a point or-
two before publication. We received it on a confidential
basis and it should be treated strictly as such until Sunday.
November 1
October 7-11
Michigan
All Voters Likely Voters
Nixon
49
49
50
McGovern
42
41
37
Schmitz
1
1
1
Undecided
8
9
12
October 30*
October 6-9
Minnesota
Nixon
56
60
McGovern
44
36
4
*Forced undecided
In Michigan it appears that the undecided who intend to vote will
split about equally which means that with a normal Presidential
turnout we would carry the state with about 52%.
Fred Currier's analysis of the News data indicates that our loss
over the past two weeks has been primarily with upper end
suburban ticket-splitters and with women. It also indicates
that our Democrat support is holding firm. The undecideds who will
vote are about 3 - 2 women and largely upper middle class ticket-
splitters.
THE WHITE HOUSE
P
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
California Field Poll
Nofziger called with the California Field Poll which
14
will show the President at 49, McGovern at 35, others
at 2, and undecided at 14. Nofziger does not know the
exact polling dates but thinks they were last week.
The last Field Poll was conducted September 29-October 6
and was 50-36-14.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
11/2/72
Date
TO:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
The trip package materials for
these states have been checked
and cleared by Gordon. Here
are the Teeter analyses for
the California trip.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MENORANDUE E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
November 2, 1972
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EY ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
North Carolina
The President received 40%, Humphrey 29%, and Wallace 31% of the
vote in North Carolina in 1968. The President did best in the
western part of the state and poorest in the eastern tide-water
area.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
40%
29%
31%
+11
Mecklensberg
52
30
19
+22
(Charlotte)
Guilford
46
30
23
+16
(Greensboro)
Forsyth
47
30
23
+17
(Winston-Salem)
Wake
43
31
26
+12
(Raleigh)
Buncombe
44
31
25
+13
(Ashville)
All the polls show the President substantially in the lead.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Early Sept. - DeVries
67%
14%
19%
+53
10/20 - Helms
61
18
22
+43
- 2
Helms is now in the lead having been behind in early September.
Belms
Galifianakis
Undecided
Margin
Early Sept. - DeVries
33%
35%
32%
- 2
10/20 - Helms
42
36
22
+ 6
10/25 - DeVries
42
31
27
+11
Helms' pattern of support is the same as the President but at a
lower level. The President's large lead is mainly attributable to
the very high numbers (53%) of Democrats who are voting for him.
In the most recent survey done for Helms a significant number of
Democrats stated they were voting for Helms because they were also
voting for the President. The closer the relationship in the voter's
mind between the President and Helms the better Helms will do.
The issues in North Carolina are similar to the rest of the South.
The leading state issue is bussing. Vietnam, the economy and taxes
in that order are the most important national issues.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
November 2, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
California
The President received 48%, Humphrey 45% and Wallace 7% of the
vote in California in 1968. The President slightly trailed the
normal Republican vote in most of California and equalled it in
Orange County despite Wallace.
1968 President
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
48%
45%
7%
+ 3
Los Angeles Co.
48
46
6
+ 2
Orange Co.
63
30
7
+33
San Diego Co.
56
36
7
+20
Santa Clara Co.
46
48
5
- 2
Alameda Co.
38
54
7
-16
San Bernadino Co.
50
40
10
+10
San Francisco Co.
34
59
6
-25
Contra Costa Co.
45
46
8
- 1
Sacramento Co.
42
51
7
- 9
San Mateo Co.
44
47
7
- 3
Riverside Co.
53
39
8
+14
Fresno Co.
44
47
8
- 3
The President's lead in California has increased since June and
has remained steady.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
6/17 - 1701
48%
42%
11%
+ 6
8/11 - 1701
53
37
10
+16
10/7 - Field Poll
50
36
Other
14
+14
10/23 - 1701
51
39
2
8
+12
- 2 -
Our latest poll shows the President leading in all regions of the
state but San Francisco.
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Undecided
Margin
Los Angeles
53%
37%
2%
8%
+16
San Francisco
37
54
2
7
-17
San Diego
50
39
3
8
+11
Rest of State
50
39
2
8
+11
The major issues in California are Vietnam unemployment, economy,
inflation and crime. The entire economy complex is rated as very
important in California.
The President has declined from 45 to 42% of the Catholic vote and
now trails McGovern by 3%. New voters in California are more likely
than any place else to support McGovern.
A substantially larger number of Nixon supporters than McGovern
supporters say they definitely plan to vote.
SATURDAY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
JDFI
SUBJECT:
North Carolina
I.
THE PRESIDENT: Gov. Scott (D) and Sen. Ervin (D) have
endorsed McGovern, but all other Democrats are keeping
their distance. The President should receive a wide margin.
The 1968 results:
Nixon
627,192
39.5%
Humphrey
464,113
29.2%
Wallace
496,198
31.3%
II.
STATE POLITICS: Gov. Scott is ineligible to succeed himself.
The race between Bowles (D) and Holshouser (R) is considered
close, but polls show 10-15 point lead for Bowles. Rep.
Nick Galifianakis (D) defeated Sen. Jordan (D) in the primary.
A Helms poll shows Jesse Helms (R) leading by a few points.
Helms has shifted to a more moderate, pro-Nixon stance.
Democrats will keep six House Districts, Republicans three
(Mizell, Broyhill and Ruth), and the Galifianakis and Jonas
open seats are toss-ups. Jack Hawke of Raleigh and Jim
Martin of Charlotte need RN blessings and should be included
with Helms and Holshouser on stage.
III.
ISSUES: The state's economy is booming and unemployment is
down to 3.3%. Ecology may become an issue as state officials
fear that the Chowan, Pamlico, and Neuse rivers may suffer
from excess algae. Inflation and taxes are also issues.
IV.
STATE GOP LEADERS:
State Chairman: Frank Rouse, 919/828-0678
Nat'l Committeeman: J. E. Broyhill, 704/758-3000
Nat'l Committeewoman: Mrs. Louis Rogers, 704/588-2730
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
New Mexico
I.
THE PRESIDENT: This state has supported the winner in every
Presidential election since statehood in 1912. The President
should carry the state. The 1968 results:
Nixon
169,692
51.8%
Humphrey
130,081
39.7%
Wallace
25,737
7.9%
II.
STATE POLITICS: No gubernatorial race. Sen. Clinton Anderson (D)
is retiring and Pete Domenice (R) is believed to have the edge on
Jack Daniels (D), and a strong Nixon vote will help. Rep. Lujan (R)
and Rep. Runnels (D) should retain their House seats.
III.
ISSUES: The state of the economy is a perennial issue. Unemployment
fluctuates and industry is scarce. The BIA's decision not to renew
the contract of Thiokol Corp. to operate the Roswell Employment
Training Center and the Indian Police Academy is a volatile issue.
The result is a loss of $3. 5 million to the area's economy. Tribal
chiefs and city officials claim they were not consulted. Domenici
asked the Vice President to reverse the decision. After a thorough
review, Secretary Morton strongly advised against any reversal.
Revenue-sharing has been sought along with other federal employ-
ment projects. A third of the state's population is of Latin American
descent who do not consider themselves a minority. In New Mexico,
there is a difference between Spanish-American and Mexican-
Americans. Domenici needs help with the Spanish speaking group.
IV.
GOP LEADERS:
State Chairman: Thomas McKenna, 505/247-1526
Nat'l Committeeman: Bob Davidson, 505/247-0943
Nat'l Committeewoman: Mrs. Edward Neff, 505/229-2479
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
California
I.
THE PREISDENT: We lead in the polls by 14%. McGovern's highly
praised organization has come apart. 1968 results:
Nixon
3,467,664
47.8%
Humphrey
3,244,318
44.7%
Wallace
487,270
6.7%
II.
STATE POLITICS: No Senate or Gubernatorial elections. Of the state's
43 House Districts, twelve are closely contested. Republicans are
favored in six, Democrats in five, and one (Mailliard's 6th District) is a
toss-up. The ex-Mayor of Ontario, Howard Snider, is our candidate in
the 38th District, where the President is visiting. He is a good candidate
running against ex-Rep. George Brown. Heavy registration gives Brown
a close edge. However, the President should carry Ontario and San
Bernardino county as he did in 1968.
III.
ISSUES: The California ballot contains 22 measures. The more contro-
versial include propositions concerning marijuana, the death penalty,
farm unionization, busing, and pornography. The major issues in
California are Vietnam, inflation, unemployment, taxes, crime and
drugs in that order. The Space Shuttle program has probably been
a help in relieving economic worries.
IV.
STATE GOP LEADERSHIP:
State Chairman: Putnam Livermore, 415/421-3430
Nat'l Committeeman: Edward Mills, 213/933-5911 ext. 35
Nat'l Committeewoman: Miss Janet Johnston, 916/795-2020
C/
Grak 1 Ceby -
Sudy 6 could be.
Acene Sreath of Nixo
mipler of chunch.
Carreth ble it for now or live
Abretee Barlott for.
Com. to :l.: Re-eloction of the President
MEMOR
COMM
November 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER will
SUBJECT:
Electoral Vote Survey
Attached is an estimate of our current position in all 51
electoral jurisdictions. It is based on the latest polling
information available, the trend of the data, and past
electoral behavior.
It is, in our judgement, a conservative estimate, and takes
into consideration the probability we will lose three or
four points on election day. With our high level of sup-
port among key Democrats, we have to assume a few of them
will return to the fold when actually confronted with the
voting decision.
However, "as of today" we would probably carry everything
but Messachusetts and the District.
Prob.
Lean
Sure
Sure "ixon
Tos
ricGovern
McGovern
Alabama
9
California
45
Hawaii
4 NONE
NONE
Mass.
14
D.C.
3
3
C
8 Michigan
21
Arizona
6
Illinois
26 Minnesota
10
Arkansas
6
New Jersey
17
Oregon
6
Colorado
7
New York
41
S. Takota
4
Delaware
3
Washington 9
Florida
17
W. Virginia 6
Georgia
12
Wisconsin 11
Idaho
4
Rhd. Island 4
Indiana
13
Iowa
8
Kansas
7
Kentucky
9
Louisiana
10
Maine
4
Maryland
10
Mississippi
7
Missouri
12
Montana
4
Nebraska
5
Nevada
3
New Hamp.
4
New Mexico
4
N. Carolina
13
N. Dakota
3
Ohio
25
Oklahoma
8
Penna.
27
S. Carolina
8
Tennessee
10
Texas
26
Utah
4
Vermont
3
Virginia
12
Wyoming
3
Electoral
Vote
Total
309
137
75
14
3
October 25, 1972
1972 ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST
ESTIMATED
ELECTORAL
NIXON
VOTE
PERCENTAGE
TOTALS
STATES
66.1 and over
( 9) Alabama
( 7) Mississippi
(17) Florida
( 5) Nebraska
119
(12) Georgia
(13) North Carolina
( 7) Kansas
( 8) South Carolina
( 9) Kentucky
(10) Tennessee
(10) Louisiana
(12) Virginia
61.1 - 66.0
( 6) Arizona
( 3) North Dakota
( 6) Arkansas
( 8) Oklahoma
51
(4) Idaho
(4) Utah
(13) Indiana
( 3) Vermont
(4) New Hampshire
56.1 - 61.0
( 7) Colorado
( 4) Montana
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
( 3) Delaware
(4) New Mexico
192
(26) Illinois
(25) Ohio
( 8) Iowa
( 6) Oregon
( 4) Maine
(27) Pennsylvania
(10) Maryland
(26) Texas
(10) Minnesota
(6) West Virginia
(12) Missouri
( 3) Wyoming
51.1 - 56.0
( 3) Alaska
(17) New Jersey
127.
(45) California
(41) New York
(21) Michigan
Less than 51
7 3) District of Columbia
(4) Rhode Island
49
( 4) Hawaii
( 4) South Dakota
(14) Massachusetts
( 9) Washington
(11) Wisconsin
= State has moved up since October 12 classification
= State has moved down since October 12 classification
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST AS OF OCTOBER 25, 1972
NIXON
McGOVERN
( 9) Alabama
(5) Nebraska
( 6) Arizona
(4) New Hampshire
( 6) Arkansas
(13) North Carolina
(17) Florida
( 3) North Dakota
SAFE
(12) Georgia
( 8) Oklahoma
(4) Idaho
( 8) South Carolina
(13) Indiana
(10) Tennessee
(7) Kansas
( 4) Utah
(9) Kentucky
( 3) Vermont
(10) Louisiana
(12) Virginia
( 7) Mississippi
(170)
( 7) Colorado
( 4) Montana
( 3) District of
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
Columbia
( 3) Delaware
(4) New Mexico
FAIRLY
(26) Illinois
(25) Ohio.
SAFE
( 8) Iowa
( 6) Oregon
( 4) Maine
(27) Pennsylvania
(10) Maryland
(26) Texas
(10) Minnesota
(6) West Virginia
(12) Missouri
( 3) Wyoming
(192)
( 3)
( 3) Alaska
(17) New Jersey
(14) Massachusetts
CLOSE
(45) California
(41) New York
(4) Rhode Island
(4) Hawaii
( 9) Washington
(140)
(4) South Dakota
(21) Michigan
(11) Wisconsin
( 33)
TOTALS
502
36
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE.AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
Emprise
NAR
,
Date
5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
California
The President received 48%, Humphrey 45% and Wallace 7% of the
vote in California in 1968. The President slightly trailed the
normal Republican vote in most of California and equalled it in
Orange County despite Wallace.
1968 President
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
48%
45%
7%
+ 3
Los Angeles Co.
48
46
6
+ 2
Orange Co.
63
30
7
+33
San Diego Co.
56
36
7
+20
Santa Clara Co.
46
48
5
- 2
Alameda Co.
38
54
7
-16
San Bernadino Co.
50
40
10
+10
San Francisco Co.
34
59
6
-25
Contra Costa Co.
45
46
8
- 1
Sacramento Co.
42
51
7
- 9
San Mateo Co.
44
47
7
- 3
Riverside Co.
53
39
8
+14
Fresno Co.
44
47
8
- 3
The President's lead in California has increased since June and
has remained steady.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
6/17 -- 1701
48%
42%
11%
+ 6
8/11 - 1701
53
37
10
+16
10/7 - Field Poll
50
36
Other
14
+14
10/23 -- 1701
51
39
2
8
+12
- 2
Our latest poll shows the President leading in all regions of the
state but San Francisco.
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Undecided
Margin
Los Angeles
53%
37%
2%
8%
+16
San Francisco
37
54
2
7
-17
San Diego
50
39
3
8
+11
Rest of State
50
39
2
8
+11
The major issues in California are Vietnam unemployment, economy,
inflation and crime. The entire economy complex is rated as very
important in California.
The President has declined from 45 to 42% of the Catholic vote and
now trails McGovern by 3%. New voters in California are more likely
than any place else to support McGovern.
A substantially larger number of Nixon supporters than McGovern
supporters say they definitely plan to vote.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-EL ECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
November 2, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By emprise NARC Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTI Al /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
North Carolina
The President received 40%, Humphrey 29%, and Wallace 31% of the
vote in North Carolina in 1968. The President did best in the
western part of the state and poorest in the eastern tide-water
area.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
40%
29%
31%
+11
Mecklensberg
52
30
19
+22
(Charlotte)
Guilford
46
30
23
+16
(Greensboro)
Forsyth
47
30
23
+17
(Winston-Salem)
Wake
43
31
26
+12
(Raleigh)
Buncombe
44
31
25
+13
(Ashville)
All the polls show the President substantially in the lead.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Early Sept. - DeVries
67%
14%
19%
+53
10/20 - Helms
61
18
22
+43
- 2
Helms is now in the lead having been behind in early September.
Helms
Galifianakis
Undecided
Morgin
Early Sept. - DeVries
33%
35%
32%
- 2
10/20 -- Helms
42
36
22
+ 6
10/25 - DeVries
42
31
27
+11
Helns' pattern of support is the same as the President but at a
lower level. The President's large lead is mainly attributable to
the very high numbers (53%) of Democrats who are voting for him.
In the most recent survey done for llelms a significant number of
Democrats stated they were voting for Ilelms because they were also
voting for the President. The closer the relationship in the voter's
mind between the President and Helms the better Helms. will do.
The issues in North Carolina are similar to the rest of the South.
The leading state issue is bussing. Victnam, the economy and taxes
in that order are the most important national issues.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM0. 12065, Section 6-102
November 2, 1972
By EmPrise NARD, Date 5-22-80
ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Runt
SUBJECT:
Presidential Visit to New Mexico
The President received 52%, Humphrey 40% and Vallace 8% of the vote
in New Mexico in 1968. The President did well in all parts of the
state with the exception of Santa Fe which he lost by a very small
margin. New Mexico has gone for the winning Presidential candidate
for 15 consecutive elections.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
52
40
8
+12
Bernalillo Co.
55
40
5
+15
(Albuquerque)
Santa Fe Co.
48
49
3
- 1
The polls show both the President and Domenici substantially in the
lead.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
9/7 - Domenici
56
21
23
+35
10/18
11
59
22
19
+37
10/25
11
56
26
18
+30
11/1
"
60
24
16
+36
Domenici
Daniels
Undecided
Margin
9/7 - Domenici
45
30
25
+15
10/18
11
46
29
25
+17
10/25
11
49
33
18
+16
11/1
"
50
35
15
+15
It is highly unlikely that either Domenici or the President will
lose.
-2-
The major national issues in New Mexico are Vietnam, crime and jobs.
The President is rated by 84% of the electorate as having done a
"superior" job of handling Vietnam. The major state issue is crime,
especially in Albuquerque which nov has the highest per capita crime
rate in the country.
Because of the large numbers of Indians and Mexicans, welfare is a
major state problem. Rumors that there are going to be cutbacks in
the White Sands installation are causing a very high number of
undecideds smong these groups in south New Mexico. This presents
a good opportunity to point out the drastic cutbacks that would
occur in DOD spending should McGovern be elected. It might also
stop the very slow but steady increases Daniels has been making
against Domenici.
CONFIDENTIAL (EYES ONLY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
Illinois
I. THE PRESIDENT: This state is one of the large states critical to
McGovern's campaign, but the Democrats are badly divided. If he cannot
carry the City of Chicago with a comfortable plurality, McGovern will sink
beneath a flood of down-state Republican votes. You are favored. 1968 results:
Nixon
2,174,774
47.1%
Humphrey
2,039,814
44.2%
Wallace
390,958
8.5%
II. STATE POLITICS: Early polls showed Dan Walker (D) with a wide margin.
But Gov. Ogilvie (R) has closed the gap--close. Sen. Charles Percy (R) has
enough reluctant Republican support plus other support to overwhelm Rep.
Roman Pucinski (D). Congressional redistricting was like a game of musical
chairs. The Republicans will retain nine seats, the Democrats ten, and five
(10, 11, 17, 21 and 22) are close. Of the 14 Districts (1-14) representing
Chicago and its suburbs, the 10th and 11th have close races. In 10th, Samual
Young (R) could defeat Abner Mikva (D) because of his recent move to the dis-
trict and his support of busing. Rep. Frank Annunzio (D) has a difficult camp-
aign in Pucinski's old 11th District and could be defeated by City Alderman
John Hoellen (R). Les Arends (R) should win his new 15th District.
III. ISSUES: A recent Walker poll found taxes to be the key issue. Ogilvie
has pledged his support to a two year freeze on property-tax levies, and opposes
a graduated state income tax. In agriculture, Republicans counter McGovern's
call for 90% parity by calling for expanding markets with less controls and
support. Ogilvie has sent a trade delegation to Russia. Aside from Vietnam,
major issues include inflation (especially in Chicago suburbs), taxes (especially
in Chicago), crime, and unemployment (especially in Chicago).
]?
IV. STATE GOP LEADERS:
State Chairman: Victor Smith 618/544-2175
Nat'l Committeeman: Robert D. Stewart 312/222-7450
Nat'l Committeewoman: Mrs. Hope McCormick 312/944-4242
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
SUBJECT:
Illinois
I.
THE PRESIDENT: This state is one of the large states critical to McGovern's
campaign, but the Democrats are badly divided. If he cannot carry the City of
Chicago with a comfortable plurality, McGovern will sink beneath a flood of down-
state Republican votes. The President is favored. The 1968 results:
Nixon
2, 174, 774
47.1%
Humphrey
2,039,814
44.2%
Wallace
390,958
8.5%
II.
STATE POLITICS: Early polls showed Dan Walker (D) with a wide margin.
But Gov. Ogilvie (R) has closed the gap--close. Sen.' Charles Percy (R) has
enough reluctant Republican support plus other support to overwhelm Rep. Roman
Pucinski (D). Congressional redistricting was like a game of musical chairs. The
Republicans will retain nine seats, the Democrats ten, and five (10, 11, 17, 21 and 22)
are close. Of the fourteen Districts (1-14) representing Chicago and its suburbs,
the 10th and 11th have close races. In the 10th, Samuel Young (R) could defeat Abner
Mikva (D) because of his recent move to the district and his support of busing.
Rep. Frank Annunzio (D) has a difficult campaign in Pucinski's old 11th District and
could be defeated by City Alderman John Hoellen (R). Les Arends (R) should win his
new 15th District.
III. ISSUES: A recent Walker poll found taxes to be the key issue. Ogilvie has
pledged his support to a two year freeze on property-tax levies, and opposes a
graduated state income tax. In agriculture, Republicans counter McGovern's call
for 90% parity by calling for expanding markets with less controls and support.
Ogilvie has sent a trade delegation to Russia. Busing is an issue in some Chicago
suburbs.
IV.
STATE GOP LEADERS:
State Chairman: Victor Smith 618/544-2175
Nat'l Committeeman: Robert D. Stewart 312/222-7450
Nat'l Committeewoman: Mrs. Hope McCormick 312/944-4242
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Detroit News Poll
Bob Tester called with the tentative figures for the
Sunday, November 5 Detroit News poll based on inter-
viewing October 30-November 1. The figures are approxi-
mately 49 for the President and 42 for McGovern. The
last Detroit News poll had the President at 50 and
McGovern at 37.
Tester discussed the results with his partner, Fred
Currier, who supervised the polling done by MOR.
Teeter's view is that the drop is not due to Democrate
returning to the fold, but rather the upper middle
income ticket splitter people who may have concerns
about Watergate.
GS/jb
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Ehrlichman Access to
Tester Poll Briefings
Tod Hullin called asking for copies of the Teeter polling
summary submitted only to you before Presidential trips.
Hullin also asked for a copy of our recent Washington poll.
Hullin had the dates the poll was conducted but would not
disclose how he learned of the existence of the Teeter
documents or the Washington poll.
The question is whether you now want to submit certain
Tester information to Shrlichman.
Recommendations:
1) That you authorise a copy of the Washington poll
to Ehrlichman.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
2) That you do not authorise copies of the Tester poll
analyses for Presidential visits to go to Ehrlichman.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
GS/jb
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 28, 1972
By Emprise MAR 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Rent
SUBJECT:
Illinois Briefing
In 1968 the President received 47%, Humphrey 44% and Wallace 8%
of the vote in Illinois. In terms of actual vote the President
carried the state by 235, 000 votes.
1968 President
Nixon Humphrey Wallace
Illinois
47
44
8
Cook Co.
41
51
8
Chicago
32
61
7
Cicero
54
28
18
Lyons
60
28
12
Proviso
54
36
9
Wheeling
69
26
6
Evanston
53
45
2
DuPage Co.
67
26
7
Lake Co.
57
36
7
Kane Co.
63
30
7
Winnebago Co.
53
40
7
Peoria Co.
50
42
8
Champaign Co.
54
38
8
Both our private and the public polls show the President with a
substantial lead which has only begun to decrease slightly. Percy
is a sure winner and Ogilvie has come from far behind to lead
Walker although the Governor's race will be very close.
- 2 -
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
6/23 1701
56
35
10
+21
9/13 1701
56
26
18
+30
10/19 - 1701
55
32
13
+23
10/20 - Sun Times
65
35
*
+30
10/27 - Sun Times
61
40
*
+21
Percy
Pucinski
Undecided
Margin
6/23 - 1701
58
31
11
+27
9/13 - 1701
55
23
22
+22
10/19 - 1701
56
31
13
+25
10/20 - Sun Times
62
38
*
+24
10/27 - Sun Times
64
36
*
+28
Ogilvie
Walker
Undecided
Margin
6/23 - 1701
35
57
8
-22
9/13 - 1701
38
42
20
- 4
10/19 - 1701
44
43
13
+1
10/20 - Sun Times
54
46
*
- 8
10/27 - Sun Times
52
48
*
- 4
* The Sun Times Poll is a straw vote poll which does not allow for
any undecided response.
The President is running well ahead of his past performance in all areas
of the state.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Chicago City
55
34
11
+21
Cook Co.
(Outside Chicago)
66
23
11
+43
St. Clair & Madison
Counties
60
34
6
+26
22 C.D. (Central I11.)
73
23
4
+50
Rest of State
65
23
12
+42
In Cook County the key race is for States Attorney pitting Edward
Hanrahan (D) against Bernard Carey (R). Hanrahan was indicted, tried
and acquitted for conspiracy in the recent shooting of several Black
Panthers during a police raid. Our private polls have had them
running neck and neck but the most recent Sun Times Poll gives Hanrahan
an 8% lead. This race is critical to Mayor Daley. Clement Stone
has been active on Carey' campaign.
The issue structure in Illinois is very close to the national issue
structure. Vietnam is the most important problem followed by taxes,
inflation, unemployment, drugs and crime. There are no significant
differences between the important issues in the Chicago area and the
- 3 -
important Statewide issues. However, in Chicago there has been
a great deal of debate about a proposed cross town expressway.
Secretary Volpe has stated that D.O.T. will take no action until
complete studies have been made. Those people who are opposed
to the project are very vocal and criticize it on social grounds.
They claim massive dislocation of poorer citizens will occur
should the Expressway be built.
In the East St. Louis area the location of a new greater St. Louis
airport is an important local issue. There is a controversy over whether
the airport should be built in Illinois or Missouri. Apparently a
tentative decision has been made to locate it in Illinois but no
announcement has been made and should not until after the election.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
DETERMINED TO BE-AN
November 2, 1972
ADMINISIRATIVE ...ARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-88
CONFIDENTIAL EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE. HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER BUT
SUBJECT:
Oklahoma
The President received 48% of the vote in 1968, Humphrey 32%
and Wallace 20%. The President ran extremely well in Oklahoma
City and even better in Tulsa.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Statewide
48%
32%
20%
+16
Oklahoma Co.
50
32
18
+1.8
Tulsa Co.
57
23
20
+34
Garfield Co.
62
25
13
+37
(Enid)
Oklahoma over the past several decades has moved from solidly
Democrat to an increasingly Republican state. The state now over-
whelmingly supports the President but Bartlett still faces an uphill
battle. Bartlett's gain has come from Edmondson's committed vote.
This is encouraging and if the movement keeps up the election will
be very close.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
8/5 - DMI
64%
16%
20%
+48
10/13 - DMI
64
15
21
+49
Bartlett
Edmondson
Undecided
Margin
8/1 - DMI
32%
50%
18%
-18
10/13 - DMI
42
47
11
- 5
- 2
While Edmondson has received moderately high COPE and ADA ratings
in the 92nd Congress, he has claimed to be more conservative than
Bartlett. Our polls show that those voters who believe Edmondson
to be the more conservative tend to vote for him. These same people
also vote for the President. On the positive side, those Democrats
who think Bartlett is more conservative will vote for, him. Because
of the President's overwhelming popularity in Oklahoma, his visit
will surely -help Bartlett. The closer Bartlett is identified with
the President the better he will do. The visit will be particularly
helpful in making Bartlett appear to be more conservative and pick
up the conservative Democrat vote the President is receiving.
Edmondson has avoided identification with McGovern. Edmondson has
also voted to override several of the President's vetoes.
The major issues in Oklahoma besides Vietnam are bussing, education
and high taxes. Like many former Governors, Bartlett receives the
blame for taxes whether there has been an increase or not. Bussing
and education are related issues and are considered the most
important local problems. Bussing is very important in Oklahoma
city which has a bussing program. Tulsa is concerned with quality
of education and Bartlett has been labeled as anti-education. This,
again, appears to be the result of his having been Governor.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AM
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
November 2, 1972
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTI AT /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M.
SUBJECT:
Rhode Island
In 1968 the President got 32% of the vote in Rhode Island,
Humphrey 64%, and Wallace 4%. The President ran poorly in
all areas of the state.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Margin
Providence
28%
68%
4%
-40
Kent
37
59
4
-22
Newport
38
58
4
-20
Washington
43
52
5
- 9
Bristol
38
59
2
-21
However, a private Becker Poll done for Chafee last weekend
gives the President an 18% lead which appears comfortable.
Chafee's lead has continued to diminish to the point where his
race is a virtual dead heat.
Becker/Chafee
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
August
52%
23%
25%
+29
10/22
55
33
10
+22
10/29
53
35
10
+18
- 2 -
Becker/Chafee
Chafee
Pell
Undecided
Margin
August
45%
41%
14%
+ 4
10/29
45
44
11
+ 1
The Chafee problem appears to be Democrats returning to their
party. The President should avoid an appeal for a Republican
Senate and emphasize Chafee's superior ability and experience.
Even though his lead has decreased Chafee's favorable ratings
continue to be significantly higher than Pell's. Pell is seen
as a bland faceless candidate who has nothing going for him
except he is a Democrat.
The important issues are primarily economy, inflation, jobs,
particularly as they relate to the defense plants. Bussing is
an issue but does not effect as many families as elsewhere because
of the large numbers who attend parochial schools. Vietnam has
been'and continues to be more important in Rhode Island than
in most other areas of the country. There is more opposition to the
bombing there than in other states except Massachusetts. The recent
Vietnam peace negotiations should be helpful to both the President
and Chafee in Rhode Island.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
TO
Ball
DETERMINED TO BE AN
10/30
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
October 28, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 5-2280 6-102
By
Emprise
KAS
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RUN
SUBJECT:
Illinois Briefing
In 1968 the President received 47%, Humphrey 44% and Wallace 8%
of the vote in Illinois. In terms of actual vote the President
carried the state by 235, 000 votes.
1968 President
Nixon Humphrey Wallace
Illinois
47
44
8
Cook Co.
41
51
8
Chicago
32
61
7
Cicero
54
28
18
Lyons
60
28
12
Proviso
54
36
9
Wheeling
69
26
6
Evanston
53
45
2
DuPage Co.
67
26
7
Lake Co.
57
36
7
Kane Co.
63
30
7
Winnebago Co.
53
40
7
Peoria Co.
50
42
8
Champaign Co.
54
38
8
Both our private and the public polls show the President with a
substantial lead which has only begun to decrease slightly. Percy
is a sure winner and Ogilvie has come from far behind to lead
Walker although the Governor's race will be very close.
- 2 -
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
6/23 1701
56
35
10
+21
9/13 1701
56
26
18
+30
10/19 1701
55
32
13
+23
10/20 - Sun Times
65
35
*
+30
10/27 - Sun Times
61
40
*
+21
Percy
Pucinski
Undecided
Margin
6/23 1701
58
31
11
+27
9/13 1701
55
23
22
+22
10/19 1701
56
31
13
+25
10/20 Sun Times
62
38
*
+24
10/27 - Sun Times
64
36
*
+28
Ogilvie
Walker
Undecided
Margin
6/23 .1701
35
57
8
-22
9/13 - 1701
38
42
20
- 4
10/19 1701
44
43
13
+ 1
10/20 - Sun Times
54
46
*
- 8
10/27 - Sun Times
52
48
*
- 4
* The Sun Times Poll is a straw vote poll which does not allow for
any undecided response.
The President is running well ahead of his past performance in all areas
of the state.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Chicago City
55
34
11
+21
Cook Co.
(Outside Chicago)
66
23
11
+43
St. Clair & Madison
Counties
60
34
6
+26
22 C.D. (Central I11.)
73
23
4
+50
Rest of State
65
23
12
+42
In Cook County the key race is for States Attorney pitting Edward
Hanrahan (D) against Bernard Carey (R). Hanrahan was indicted, tried
and acquitted for conspiracy in the recent shooting of several Black
Panthers during a police raid. Our private polls have had them
running neck and neck but the most recent Sun Times Poll gives Hanrahan
an 8% lead. This race is critical to Mayor Daley. Clement Stone
has been active on Carey's campaign.
The issue tructure in Illinois is very close to the national issue
structure. Vietnam is the most important problem followed by taxes,
inflation, unemployment, drugs and crime. There are no significant
differences between the important issues in the Chicago area and the
- 3 -
important Statewide issues. However, in Chicago there has been
a great deal of debate about a proposed cross town expressway.
Secretary Volpe has stated that D.O.T. will take no action until
complete studies have been made. Those people who are opposed
to the project are very vocal and criticize it on social grounds.
They claim massive dislocation of poorer citizens will occur
should the Expressway be built.
In the East St. Louis area the location of a new greater St. Louis
airport is an important local issue. There is a controversy over whether
the airport should be built in Illinois or Missouri. Apparently a
tentative decision has been made to locate it in Illinois but no
announcement has been made and should not until after the election.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
October 28, 1972
E.O. 12065, See: pn 6-102
By amprise
5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Rut
SUBJECT:
Washington Poll
I just received data from a Washington Statewide poll done for
Dan Evans. It is the last of-a series we bought into earlier
in the campaign.
Washington -- 801 Interviews
10/20-10/25 -- Central Surveys
Nixon
55%
McGovern
29
Undecided
16
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
In
Bl
DETERMINED TO BE AN
10/30
ADMINISTRATIVE RKING
MEMORANDUM
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 28, 1972
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER Runt
SUBJECT:
Washington Poll
I just received data from a Washington Statewide poll done for
Dan Evans. It is the last of-a series we bought into earlier
in the campaign.
Washington -- 801 Interviews
10/20-10/25 - Central Surveys
Nixon
55%
McGovern
29
Undecided
16
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
TO
Hoopes
10/28
mid October
MICHIGAN: A late September Detroit News poll showed the President
with a 13 point lead. McGovern has made the state a major priority,
and the lead could narrow. Sen. Griffin is in a hard fight with Attorney
General Frank Kelley, reportedly the best vote-getter the Democrats
have there. The major issue is busing. Kelley was accused by Griffin
of being pro-busing, but Kelley led the court fight which got a stay on
busing in the Detroit suburbs. Mrs. Irene McCabe is the local woman
who gained national attention as organizer of the anti-busing National
Action Group. Redistricting drawn by the Democrats eliminated one
Republican, and put Rep. Marvin Esch (R) in a troublesome University
of Michigan district. A good GOP shot exists in (New) 18th District,
encompassing some Detroit suburbs, where Robert Huber, head of
state Conservative Party, is running on GOP ticket against State
Senator Daniel Cooper. In 1968, vote was Humphrey, 48%, Nixon,
42% and Wallace 10%. State leaders are GOP Chairman Bill McLaughlin
and CREP Chairman Jack Gibbs.
early October
MINNESOTA: The Minneapolis Tribune found the President with a
point lead in September. It also found Senator Walter Mondale
crushing Rev. Philip Hansen (R), a Lutheran minister, by points.
24
The Democrats have been working hard to narrow the President's lead
and hold on to Mondale's. Taxes are a major issue in Minnesota,
where corporate tax is highest in nation, and where individual tax is
also high. Rep. Bob Bergland could succumb to GOP challenge by
Jon O. Haaven in the 7th District. GOP Rep. John Zwach (6th) could
be in some trouble. In 1968, Humphrey captured 54%, Nixon 41.5%
and Waliace 4. 3%. Dave Krogseng is State GOP chairman; John W.
Mooty and Mrs. Russell T. Lund are CREP co-chairmen.
NORTH DAKOTA: The President has carried North Dakota every
time he has run, and will do the same this time. Lt. Gov. Richard
Larsen should hold the statehouse for the GOP against Democrat
challenger Rep. Art Link. Rep. Mark Andrews (R) will easily win
the at-large House seat in a race with Democrat State Chairman
Richard Ista. Agriculture is major issue. Late wheat harvest
means state farmers will benefit from Soviet sale. Lifting lid on
beef importation not popular here. GOP chairman is Jack Huss,
CREP co-chairmen are John Rouzie and Mrs. Winston Register.
In 1968, the President captured 55.9%, Humphrey 38.2% and
Wallace 5. 7%.
OHIO: A late September newspaper poll gave the President a
23-point lead. Despite the fact McGovern has spent much time
here, the President retains the lead. In 1968, Ohio went 45. 2%
and
most
for the President, 42. 9% for Humphrey and 11. 8% for Wallace
Mewspapers
Repeal of state income tax an issue, with AFL-CIO opposed With
retirement of Rep. William McCullock (R) and Rep. Frank Bow (R),
Goplit.
the 4th and 16th Districts are vulnerable, but Republican retention
is likely. Tennyson Guyer is 4th District GOP candidate, with
Ralph S. Regula in the 16th. Charles Ross is Ohio CREP director;
John S. Andrews is state chairman.
WEST VIRGINIA: The President has the lead here, but it is thought
to be narrow. In 1968, this state went for Humphrey with 50%, with
the President getting 41% and Wallace 10%. Jennings Randolph (D)
will retain the Senate seat against Louise Leonard (R). Remotely
possible GOP House pickup in 4th District, where Sheriff Joe Neal
is challenging Rep. Ken Hechler (D). Jay Rockefeller (D) giving
tough challenge to Gov. Arch Moore, but Moore will likely prevail.
Rockefeller proposes abolition of strip mining. Mine safety,
environment, unions, strip mining, highway construction are issues.
GOP chairman is Tom Potter. Howard V. Corcoran is CREP chairman.
OKLAHOMA: The 148, 000-vote victory for the President in 1968 will
be matched or exceeded this year. Dewey Bartlett has closed on
Rep. Ed Edmondson in the Senate race, and the President's pull could
be the key for Bartlett. Democrats will likely hold Edmondson's
2nd District seat against Emery Toliver. Some chance Democrat
James Jones might beat James Hewgley for the seat of retiring
Page Belcher. McGovernites have charged that Soviet grain deal hurt
Oklahoma farmers who sold their wheat before sale announcement at
lower price. Oil imports controversial issue. GOP chairman is
Clarence Warner and CREP chairman is Mrs. Rex Moore.
NEBRASKA: This was the President's strongest state in 1968, and
may well make the same record this year. Mid-September Omaha
World-Herald poll gave the President a 4 to 1 lead. Sen. Carl T.
Curtis will win his fourth term against former Republican Terry M.
Carpenter. Republicans will keep all three House seats. Farm
unrest because of lifting of beef import quotas, curbs on export of
cattle hides and FDA ban of DES in cattle feed. George Cook is
CREP chairman, Milan Bish is GOP chairman.
KANSAS: According to newspaper polls, President holds 3 to 1
lead.. Kansas farmer sold wheat before Soviet sale made price jump,
but this has not blunted President's lead. Gov. Robert Docking
seeking fourth term, staying a universe away from McGovern.
Morris Kay (R), majority leader of statehouse, is making good
race, but Docking win likely. Sen. Pearson having little problem
against Dr. Arch O. Tetzlaff. Best chance for House seat is in
2nd District where Charles McAtee (R) is challenging Rep. William
Roy. McAtee has been slowed with an appendectomy. In 1968, vote
was Nixon 55%, Humphrey 35% and Wallace 10%. Leadership
includes GOP Chairman Bill Falstad, CREP Honorary Chairmen
Sen. James Pearson and Sen. Bob Dole, and Chairman G. Robert
Gadberry.
SOUTH DAKOTA: McGovern had a 14-point deficit in his home state
in mid-September. Home pride probably will narrow that, but the
President could well beat McGovern here. The Senator lagged
behind the state Democrat ticket. Democrats hope to take Sen. Mundt's
seat with Rep. James Abourezk, but GOP has able candidate in
State Sen. Robert Hirsch, who is closing. Possible GOP House
pickup in 2nd District (Abourezk's seat), where James Abdnor is our
candidate. A late wheat harvest meant the Soviet sale brought
benefits to state farmers. Lowering of beef import restrictions had
negative effect. State tax reform is an issue, with state legislature
failing to pass reform legislation. Recent floods brought new emphasis
on flood control needs. Bob Burns is GOP chairman; W. E. O'Brien is
CREP chairman. In 1968, South Dakota went for the President 53%
to Humphrey's 42% and Wallace's 5%.
60.4
23
23,587
64
ILLINOIS: This is one of the large states McGovern considers crucial to
his election. The Democrats, are badly split and without a sizable
plurality in the Chicago area, McGovern will be defeated by downstate
GOP votes. Percy is far ahead of Pucinsk and appears to
have solid party support in his bid to keep the Senate seat. Walker's
early lead in the gubernatorial race has evaporated and a Nixon
sweep should put Ogilvie ove A Close House races include Republicans
Bob Hanrahan in the 3rd District; Samuel Young in the 10th District,
City Alderman John Hoellen in the 11th District, State Rep. George M.
O'Brien in the 17th District, State Rep. Edward Madigan in the 21st
District, and Bob Lamkin in the 22nd District. The 1968 Presidential
vote was Nixon, 47.1%; Humphrey, 44. 2%; Wallace, 8. 5%. The State
GOP leadership includes State Chairman Vic Smith and CREP Chairman
Tom Houser.
INDIANA: The President has always done well in Indiana and all
sig point to a landslide this year. The Governor's race is close and
Ex-Governor Welsh could win inspite of a Nixon landslide as he did in
1960; Bowen's problem is name recognition: Earl Landgrebe's votes
against the women's rights amendment, the 18 year-old vote, and the
slight
Clean Water Act, may cost him his 2nd District House seat. The GOP
has
Pould pick up the Roush 4th District House seat with Allan Bloom and
good chare up
the 11th District with William Hudnut III. [Republican William Johnson's
pick
for
the
oth
District
is
incumbent
Republican
David Dennis' race in the 10th, The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon,
50. 3% Humphrey, 38%; Wallace, 11. 4%. State GOP Leadership includes
State Chairman James T. Neal and CREP Chairman Will Hays, Jr. who
recently had a that heart a Hack.
KENTUCKY: This southern border state will be in the Nixon camp
by a solid margin. McGovern is not expected to concentrate any
campaign effort in this state. This will be the biggest factor for Louie
could
be
Nunn against Dec Huddleston in the Senate race. Republican Laban
Jackson may pick up the 6th District with a large Presidential vote.
close.
The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 43. 8%; Humphrey, 37. 6%;
Wallace, 18. 3%. State GOP leaders include State Chairman John Kerr
and CREP Chairman Eugene Goss.
IOWA: The President should carry Iowa by a substantial margin.
Senator Jack Miller is well known and has capitalized on his farm votes;
he should win. Governor Robert Ray is considered a strong favorite for
re-election. Republican incumbent Fred Schwengel has a close race in
the 1st District, and incumbents John Kyl (R) and Neal Smith (D) are in
a close fight for the 4th District, thanks to redistricting. The 1968
Presidential vote was Nixon, 53.0%; Humphrey, 40. 8%: Wallace, 5. 7%.
State GOP leaders include State Chairman John McDonald and CREP
Chairman Churchill Williams.
WISCONSIN: This could be one of McGovern's strong statessince he
made a strong primary showing. There are strong anti-McGovern feelings
among leading ethnic Democrats. The President should carry the state.
No state-wide races. Incumbent Republican Alvin O'Konski has been
redistricted against incumbent Democrat David Obey who is favored to
take the 7th District. Republican State Rep. Harold Froehlich should
win John Byrnes' vacant seat. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon
47. 9%; Humphrey, 44. 3%; Wallace, 7. 6%. State GOP leaders include
State Chairman John Hough and CREP Chairman John MacIver.
WYOMING: The President should win big and may even benefit from
a big Senate win by Clifford Hansen who is a solid winner. Teno
Roncalio may be in trouble at the hands of young Bill Kidd (28) who could
pick up the at-large seat with the help of a strong Nixon/Hansen vote.
The 1968 President vote was Nixon, 55.8%; Humphrey 35. 5%; Wallace,
8. 7%. The State GOP leadership includes State Chairman David
Kennedy and CREP Chairman Mrs. Robert Gosman.
UTAH: Nixon has a substantial lead over McGovern and will carry the
state. Democrat Governor Calvin Rampton will defeat Nicholas Strike
for an unprecedented third term. The Second District is aswing district
and Republican Sherman Lloyd may be in trouble inspite of a big Nixon
vote. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 56.5%; Humphrey, 37.1%;
Wallace, 6.4%. State GOP leaders include State Chairman Kent Shearer
and CREP Chairman Dick Richards.
IDAHO: The President will carry the state and may even exceed
Eisenhower's record plurality of 85, 628 votes. Rep. James McClure
has a difficult race for Sen. Len Jordan's vacant seat, but should win.
Conservative Steven Symms should win McClure's House seat. The
1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 56. 8%; Humphrey, 30. 7%; Wallace,
12. 5%. GOP leaders include State Chairman Mrs. Gordon Miner and
CREP Chairman William Campbell.
COLORADO: Early polls showed the President with a two-to-one lead;
RN will win the state. Sen. Gordon Allott is favored to retain his
Senate seat. Republicans could win the 4th District but James Johnson
has not conducted an effective campaign. Republican State Sen. William
Armstrong is favored to win the new 5th District. The 1968 Presidential
vote was Nixon. 50. 5%; Humphrey, 41. 3%: Wallace, 7. 5%. State GOP
leaders include State Chairman Ken Lloyd and CREP Chairman Governor
John Love.
MISSOURI: The President will win here. McGovern has visited in
effort to salve Eagleton wounds. Hot race for statehouse, with
Republican Christopher (Kit) Bond, the state auditor, slightly ahead
of Democrat Edward L. Dowd. Bond could be first GOP governor
in 32 years and is hitting heavy on state government corruption.
Possible GOP House pickup in 6th District where Russ Sloan is our
candidate. Crime, especially prostitution around Fort Leonard Wood,
is an issue, as is selection of new site for St. Louis Airport.
Revenue Sharing an issue with Dowd promising first priority of
tax relief, and Bond a first priority of public school aid. CREP
chairman is Lawrence K. Roos, and GOP chairman is J. Nick Gray.
1968 vote was Nixon 45%, Humphrey 44% and Wallace 11%.
ARIZONA: The President will win handily here. McGovern picked up
some Chicano support with backing of the lettuce boycott. The state's
new House seat is likely to go to Republican State Sen. John Conlan,
over Jack E. Brown. Navajos and Bureau of Indian Affairs working
toward implementation of self-determination for Indians. Navajos
and Hopis in dispute over lands. Cesar Chavez urging recall of
Gov. Williams because he signed state law banning farm workers
from consumer boycotts and allowing farmers to ask for 60-day court
injunction to force laborers back to work. Sam Mardian is CREP
chairman; Harry Rosenzweig is GOP chairman. President won here
in 1968 with 55% to Humphrey's 35% and Wallace's 10%.
NEW MEXICO: This state has supported the winner in every Presidential
election since 1912 and will do so again this year. Republican Pete
Domenici is in a close Senate race, but he has the edge. Republican
incumbent Manuel Lujan is favored, but has stiff competition for the 1st
District House seat. Conservative Democrat Harold Runnels will keep
his seat. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 51.8%; Humphrey, 39.7%;
Wallace, 7.9%. The state GOP leadership includes State Chairman
Thomas McKenna and CREP Chairman Ed Hartman.
MONTANA: Nixon holds the edge and should carry the state as he did in
1968. Republican State Sen. Henry S. Hibbard could upset Lee Metcalf
in the Senate race, but he is the underdog. The Governor's race is close
but Republican State Sen. Ed Smith could win. The 1968 Presidential vote
was Nixon, 50. 6%; Humphrey, 41. 6%; Wallace, 7.3%. State GOP leaders
include State Chairman Bill Holter and State CREP Chairman G. W.
Deschamps.
straw
A
The Sun -Twies ^ poll published Sunday
gove the President a 60.4-39.6% Lend
which is down 4% from previous pall.
Same poll has Percy leading 64-36 of
Ogilone leading Walla 52-48.
By sat. pm.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 27, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
SUBJECT:
Briefing on States Represented at Chicago Event
MICHIGAN: A late September Detroit News poll showed the President
with is 15-point lead. McGovern has made the state a major priority,
and the lead could narrow. Sen. Griffin is in a hard fight with Attorney
General Frank Kelley, reportedly the best vote-getter the Democrats
hav = there. The major issue is busing. Kelley was accused by Griffin
of being pro-busing, but Kelley led the court fight which got a stay on
busing in the Detroit suburbs. Mrs. Irene McCabe is the local woman
who gained national attention as organizer of the anti-busing National
Action Group. Redistricting drawn by the Democrats eliminated one
Republican, and put Rep. Marvin Esch (R) in a troublesome University
of Michigan district. A good GOP shot exists in (New) 18th District,
encompassing some Detroit suburbs, where Robert Huber, head of
state Conservative Party, is running on GOP ticket against State
Senator Daniel Cooper. In 1968, vote was Humphrey, 48%, Nixon,
42% and Wallace 10%. State leaders are GOP Chairman Bill McLaughlin
and CREP Chairman Jack Gibbs.
MINNESOTA: The Minneapolis Tribune found the President with a
21-point lead in late September. It also found Senator Walter Mondale
crushing Rev. Philip Hansen (R), a Lutheran minister, by 36 points.
The Democrats have been working hard to narrow the President's lead
and hold on to Mondale's. Taxes are a major issue in Minnesota,
where corporate tax is highest in nation, and where individual tax is
also high. Rep. Bob Bergland could succumb to GOP challenge by
Jon O. Haaven in the 7th District. GOP Rep. John Zwach (6th) could
be in some trouble. In 1968, Humphrey captured 54%, Nixon 41.5%
and Wallace 4. 3%. Dave Krogseng is State GOP chairman; John W.
Mooty and Mrs. Russell T. Lund are CREP co-chairmen.
NORTH DAKOTA: The President has carried North Dakota every
time he has run, and will do the same this time. Lt. Gov. Richard
Larsen should hold the statehouse for the GOP against Democrat
challenger Rep. Art Link. Rep. Mark Andrews (R) will easily win
the at-large House seat in a race with Democrat State Chairman
Richard Ista. Agriculture is major issue. Late wheat harvest
means state farmers will benefit from Soviet sale. Lifting lid on
beef importation not popular here. GOP chairman is Jack Huss,
CREP co-chairmen are John Rouzie and Mrs. Winston Register.
In 1968, the President captured 55. 9%, Humphrey 38. 2% and
Wallace 5. 7%.
OHIO: A late September newspaper poll gave the President a
23-point lead. Despite the fact McGovern has spent much time
here, the President retains the lead. In 1968, Ohio went 45. 2%
for the President, 42. 9% for Humphrey and 11. 8% for Wallace.
Reneal of state income tax an issue, with AFL-CIO opposed. With
retirement of Rep. William McCullock (R) and Rep. Frank Bow (R),
the 4th and 16th Districts are vulnerable, but Republican retention
is likely. Tennyson Guyer is 4th District GOP candidate, with
Ralph S. Regula in the 16th. Charles Ross is Ohio CREP director;
John S. Andrews is state chairman.
WEST VIRGINIA: The President has the lead here, but it is thought
to be narrow. In 1968, this state went for Humphrey with 50%, with
the President getting 41% and Wallace 10%. Jennings Randolph (D)
will retain the Senate seat against Louise Leonard (R). Remotely
possible GOP House pickup in 4th District, where Sheriff Joe Neal
is challenging Rep. Ken Hechler (D). Jay Rockefeller (D) giving
tough challenge to Gov. Arch Moore, but Moore will likely prevail.
Rockefeller proposes abolition of strip mining. Mine safety,
environment, unions, strip mining, highway construction are issues.
GOP chairman is Tom Potter. Howard V. Corcoran is CREP chairman.
OKLAHOMA: The 148, 000-vote victory for the President in 1968 will
be matched or exceeded this year. Dewey Bartlett has closed on
Rep. Ed Edmondson in the Senate race, and the President's pull could
be the key for Bartlett. Democrats will likely hold Edmondson's
2nd District seat against Emery Toliver. Some chance Democrat
James Jones might beat James Hewgley for the seat of retiring
Page Belcher. McGovernites have charged that Soviet grain deal hurt
Oklahoma farmers who sold their wheat before sale announcement at
lower price. Oil imports controversial issue. GOP chairman is
Clarence Warner and CREP chairman is Mrs. Rex Moore.
NEBRASKA: This was the President's strongest state in 1968, and
may well make the same record this year. Mid-September Omaha
World-Herald poll gave the President a 4 to 1 lead. Sen. Carl T.
Curtis will win his fourth term against former Republican Terry M.
Carpenter. Republicans will keep all three House seats. Farm
unrest because of lifting of beef import quotas, curbs on export of
cattle hides and FDA ban of DES in cattle feed. George Cook is
CREP chairman, Milan Bish is GOP chairman.
KANSAS: According to newspaper polls, President holds 3 to 1
lead. Kansas farmer sold wheat before Soviet sale made price jump,
but this has not blunted President's lead. Gov. Robert Docking
seeking fourth term, staying a universe away from McGovern.
Morris Kay (R), majority leader of statehouse, is making good
race, but Docking win likely. Sen. Pearson having little problem
against Dr. Arch O. Tetzlaff. Best chance for House seat is in
2nd District where Charles McAtee (R) is challenging Rep. William
Roy. McAtee has been slowed with an appendectomy. In 1968, vote
was Nixon 55%, Humphrey 35% and Wallace 10%. Leadership
includes GOP Chairman Bill Falstad, CREP Honorary Chairmen
Sen. James Pearson and Sen. Bob Dole, and Chairman G. Robert
Gadberry.
SOUTH DAKOTA: McGovern had a 14-point deficit in his home state
in mid-September. Home pride probably will narrow that, but the
President could well beat McGovern here. The Senator lagged
behind the state Democrat ticket. Democrats hope to take Sen. Mundt's
seat with Rep. James Abourezk, but GOP has able candidate in
State Sen. Robert Hirsch, who is closing. Possible GOP House
pickup in 2nd District (Abourezk's seat), where James Abdnor is our
candidate. A late wheat harvest meant the Soviet sale brought
benefits to state farmers. Lowering of beef import restrictions had
negative effect. State tax reform is an issue, with state legislature
failing to pass reform legislation. Recent floods brought new emphasis
on flood control needs. Bob Burns is GOP chairman; W. E. O'Brien is
CREP chairman. In 1968, South Dakota went for the President 53%
to Humphrey's 42% and Wallace's 5%.
ILLINOIS: This is one of the large states McGovern considers crucial to
his election. The Democrats, are badly split and without a sizable
plurality in the Chicago area, McGovern will be defeated by downstate
GOP votes. Percy is thought to be far ahead of Pucinsky and appears to
have solid party support in his bid to keep the Senate seat. Walker's
early lead in the gubernatorial race has all but evaporated and a Nixon
sweep should put Ogilvie over. Close House races include Republicans
Bob Hanrahan in the 3rd District; Samuel Young in the 10th District,
City Alderman John Hoellen in the 11th District, State Rep. George M.
O'Brien in the 17th District, State Rep. Edward Madigan in the 21st
District, and Bob Lamkin in the 22nd District. The 1968 Presidential
vote was Nixon, 47.1%; Humphrey, 44. 2%; Wallace, 8. 5%. The State
GOP leadership includes State Chairman Vic Smith and CREP Chairman
Tom Houser.
INDIANA: The President has always done well in Indiana and all
signs point to a landslide this year. The Governor's race is close and
Ex-Governor Welsh could win inspite of a Nixon landslide as he did in
1960; Bowen's problem is name recognition. Earl Landgrebe's votes
against the women's rights amendment, the 18 year-old vote, and the
Clean Water Act, may cost him his 2nd District House seat. The GOP
could pick up the Roush 4th District House seat with Allan Bloom and
the 11th District with William Hudnut III. Republican William Johnson's
race for the 9th District is too close to call, as is incumbent Republican
David Dennis' race in the 10th. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon,
50. 3%, Humphrey, 38%; Wallace, 11. 4%. State GOP Leadership includes
State Chairman James T. Neal and CREP Chairman Will Hays, Jr.
KENTUCKY: This southern border state will be in the Nixon camp
by a solid margin. McGovern is not expected to concentrate any
campaign effort in this state. This will be the biggest factor for Louie
Nunn against Dee Huddleston in the Senate race. Republican Laban
Jackson may pick up the 6th District with a large Presidential vote.
The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 43. 8%; Humphrey, 37. 6%;
Wallace, 18. 3%. State GOP leaders include State Chairman John Kerr
and CREP Chairman Eugene Goss.
IOWA: The President should carry Iowa by a substantial margin.
Senator Jack Miller is well known and has capitalized on his farm votes;
he should win. Governor Robert Ray is considered a strong favorite for
re-election. Republican incumbent Fred Schwengel has a close race in
the 1st District, and incumbents John Kyl (R) and Neal Smith (D) are in
a close fight for the 4th District, thanks to redistricting. The 1968
Presidential vote was Nixon, 53.0%; Humphrey, 40. 8%; Wallace, 5. 7%.
State GOP leaders include State Chairman John McDonald and CREP
Chairman Churchill Williams.
WISCONSIN: This could be one of McGovern's strong statessince he
made a strong primary showing. There are strong anti-McGovern feelings
among leading ethnic Democrats. The President should carry the state.
No state-wide races. Incumbent Republican Alvin O'Konski has been
redistricted against incumbent Democrat David Obey who is favored to
take the 7th District. Republican State Rep. Harold Froehlich should
win John Byrnes' vacant seat. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon
47. 9%; Humphrey, 44.3%; Wallace, 7.6%. State GOP leaders include
State Chairman John Hough and CREP Chairman John MacIver.
WYOMING: The President should win big and may even benefit from
a big Senate win by Clifford Hansen who is a solid winner. Teno
Roncalio may be in trouble at the hands of young Bill Kidd (28) who could
pick up the at-large seat with the help of a strong Nixon/Hansen vote.
The 1968 President vote was Nixon, 55.8%; Humphrey 35. 5%; Wallace,
8. 7%. The State GOP leadership includes State Chairman David
Kennedy and CREP Chairman Mrs. Robert Gosman.
UTAH: Nixon has a substantial lead over McGovern and will carry the
state. Democrat Governor Calvin Rampton will defeat Nicholas Strike
for an unprecedented third term. The Second District is aswing district
and Republican Sherman Lloyd may be in trouble inspite of a big Nixon
vote. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 56. 5%; Humphrey, 37.1%;
Wallace, 6.4%. State GOP leaders include State Chairman Kent Shearer
and CREP Chairman Dick Richards.
IDAHO: The President will carry the state and may even exceed
Eisenhower's record plurality of 85, 628 votes. Rep. James McClure
has a difficult race for Sen. Len Jordan's vacant seat, but should win.
Conservative Steven Symms should win McClure's House seat. The
1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 56. 8%; Humphrey, 30. 7%; Wallace,
12. 5%. GOP leaders include State Chairman Mrs. Gordon Miner and
CREP Chairman William Campbell.
COLORADO: Early polls showed the President with a two-to-one lead;
RN will win the state. Sen. Gordon Allott is favored to retain his
Senate seat. Republicans could win the 4th District but James Johnson
has not conducted an effective campaign. Republican State Sen. William
Armstrong is favored to win the new 5th District. The 1968 Presidential
vote was Nixon, 50.5%; Humphrey, 41.3%; Wallace, 7.5%. State GOP
leaders include State Chairman Ken Lloyd and CREP Chairman Governor
John Love.
MISSOURI: The President will win here. McGovern has visited in
effort to salve Eagleton wounds. Hot race for statehouse, with
Republican Christopher (Kit) Bond, the state auditor, slightly ahead
of Democrat Edward L. Dowd. Bond could be first GOP governor
in 32 years and is hitting heavy on state government corruption.
Possible GOP House pickup in 6th District where Russ Sloan is our
candidate. Crime, especially prostitution around Fort Leonard Wood,
is an issue, as is selection of new site for St. Louis Airport.
Revenue Sharing an issue with Dowd promising first priority of
tax relief, and Bond a first priority of public school aid. CREP
chairman is Lawrence K. Roos, and GOP chairman is J. Nick Gray.
1968 vote was Nixon 45%, Humphrey 44% and Wallace 11%.
ARIZONA: The President will win handily here. McGovern picked up
some Chicano support with backing of the lettuce boycott. The state's
new House seat is likely to go to Republican State Sen. John Conlan,
over Jack E. Brown. Navajos and Bureau of Indian Affairs working
toward implementation of self-determination for Indians. Navajos
and Hopis in dispute over lands. Cesar Chavez urging recall of
Gov. Williams because he signed state law banning farm workers
from consumer boycotts and allowing farmers to ask for 60-day court
injunction to force laborers back to work. Sam Mardian is CREP
chairman; Harry Rosenzweig is GOP chairman. President won here
in 1968 with 55% to Humphrey's 35% and Wallace's 10%.
NEW MEXICO: This state has supported the winner in every Presidential
election since 1912 and will do so again this year. Republican Pete
Domenici is in a close Senate race, but he has the edge. Republican
incumbent Manuel Lujan is favored, but has stiff competition for the 1st
District House seat. Conservative Democrat Harold Runnels will keep
his seat. The 1968 Presidential vote was Nixon, 51. 8%; Humphrey, 39.7%;
Wallace, 7. 9%. The state GOP leadership includes State Chairman
Thomas McKenna and CREP Chairman Ed Hartman.
MONTANA: Nixon holds the edge and should carry the state as he did in
1968. Republican State Sen. Henry S. Hibbard could upset Lee Metcalf
in the Senate race, but he is the underdog. The Governor's race is close
but Republican State Sen. Ed Smith could win. The 1968 Presidential vote
was Nixon, 50.6%; Humphrey, 41. 6%; Wallace, 7. 3%. State GOP leaders
include State Chairman Bill Holter and State CREP Chairman G. W.
Deschamps.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 27, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
SUBJECT:
Michigan
I.
THE PRESIDENT: The reliable Detroit News poll gives the
President a 13-point lead. Past elections indicate that
this lead will slip 6-8 points, but the President should
carry the state with 52-54%. In 1968, vote was:
Nixon
1,370,665
(41.5%)
Humphrey
1,593,083
(48.2%)
Wallace
331,968
(10.0%)
II.
THE SENATE: Griffin holds an 8-point lead statewide.
Busing is the major issue, particularly in the Detroit
area. Attorney General Frank Kelley (D), redeemed him-
self by leading court fight which got stay from busing.
Kelley has indicated he would vote with Sen. Hart, and
Griffin calling him the "shadow". Also hitting Kelley
post-poll turnaround on social issues, like busing.
III. HOUSE: Rep. Donald Riegle (R), who has part of area
President will visit, has said he won't endorse President.
Rep. Jim Harvey (R) and Rep. Elford Cederberg (R) also
represent the area. Cederberg is safe and Harvey should
win but he is running hard. Statewide, Rep. Marvin
Esch (R) is having problems; possible GOP win in (new)
18th District where Conservative Party Chairman Robert
Huber is running on GOP ticket.
IV.
SAGINAW AND ISSUES: Bay, Saginaw and Midland counties
comprise immediate neighborhood for the event. Bay is
Democratic and one of three counties to go for McGovern
in primary. Bay and Saginaw are UAW, blue collar,
industrial. Midland has many white collar, technical
employees of Dow Chemical. Economy has always been and
is the major problem in the area. Area has always been
responsive to inflation and unemployment campaigns.
Unemployment a special problem in Bay County. Busing is
not a significant issue in this area. Liberalized abortion
will be on state ballot and polls. Show it is favored.
Working man being pressed to Democrat fold as Woodcock
sees this as test for his future re: Meany. Tax reforms
an issue, with property and state income taxes on ballot.
Committee for the Re-election of the President
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
E.O. 12065, Sect 1972
By
Emprise
FAF
Date 5-23-80
IDENTIAL ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Michigan Presidential Appearance
The President lost Michigan in 1960 by 67,000 votes, and in 1968
by 10,500 votes. Wallace got 332,000 (10%) in 1968.
Normal
1968 President
1970 Governor
Rep.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Milliken
Levin
Vote
Statewide
42
48
10
51
49
51
Saginaw Co.
49
42
9
53
47
61
Genesee Co.
39
46
15
43
57
55
Midland Co.
61
31
8
58
42
70
Bay Co.
44
50
5
47
53
53
Wayne Co.
26
63
10
43
57
34
Oakland Co.
45+
45-
10
55
45
60
Macomb Co.
30
55
14
47
53
38
Kent Co.
54
39
7
61
39
64
In our private polls he was tied with McGovern (45-45) in June, but
had moved up to a 16% lead by early September. This lead had slipped
to 13% in mid-October. In most past elections the Democrats have
gained 7 to 9% during the last 3 weeks, and I expect that the
President's lead has declined somewhat during the last 2 weeks. If
this election follows the pattern of most others we can expect him
to carry the state with 52 to 54 percent of the vote in November.
Statewide
Wave II
News
Wave III
News
News
Flint/
9/25
9/1
10/11
9/21
10/5-11
Saginaw City
Nixon
45
54
54
52
50
50
McGovern
45
38
34
37
37
39
Undecided
10
8
9
11
12
8
Schmitz
-
0
2
0
1
4
-2-
The key to the President's increased strength this year is that he
is running much stronger with both the white collar, upper middle
class suburban ticket-splitters in the Detroit area and with the
blue collar working class ticket-splitters and Democrats in the
Detroit area and in the Flint-Saginaw area. He is not, however,
running as strong as he might be in outstate Michigan.
The Griffin-Kelly race has been close with Griffin being behind on
at least one occasion, although he now has a 8% lead (47-39) in our
most recent poll.
The area the President will visit is the second most Democratic area
of the state, and is his poorest area outside of Wayne County.
However, it has a large number of ticket-splitters and has been
very important to statewide Republican victorys in recent years.
Romney and Milliken both ran well there. Past winning coalitions
for Republicans in Michigan have included up to 20% of the black
vote. Our current polls have shown that the President is now
running poorly with blacks (4%). To offset this the President
must gain additional votes with first-time Democratic ticket-splitters,
primarily blue collar workers. The preponderence of ticket-splitters
in this area are blue collar working class people, many of whom are
now making $10,000 to $15,000 per year in the automotive plants.
Saginaw and Flint and Bay City all have major G.M. plants and
thousands of UAW members. Midland is the home of Dow Chemical and
has many upper middle class white collar people who are conservative
politically.
Vietnam is the most important problem in Michigan, and in this area.
Inflation and taxes have always been important political issues in
this area, and continue to be in our current polls. Racial problems
are an important problem in Flint and Saginaw. While the bussing
issue may have spilled over into this area to a minor degree it is
not a major problem here.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date
10/25/72
TO:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
Here is Teeter's analysis of
Kentucky. The political analysis
in the trip package has been
checked against it and with two
changes is ok. We can retype
these if you give them to the
President or leave as is if you
cover it verbally with him.
Retype
Leave as is
fadir the Re-election of the President
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
NARS, Date 5-22-80 October 24, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Kentucky
In 1968 the President received 44%, Humphrey 38% and Wallace 19% in
Kentucky.
In 1968 the President trailed the average Republican vote by 8%
statewide and ran far behind it in the Louisville area. This was
probably due to Wallace's high percentage.
Average
1968
1968 Senate
Rep.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Cook Peden
Other
Vote
Kentucky
44
38
19
51.
48
1
52
Jefferson Co.
43
41.
16
56
42
2
59
(Louisville)
Fayette Co.
50
33
17
58
41
1
56
(Lexington)
Boyd Co.
45
43
13
49
50
1
49
(Ashland)
Boyd County (Ashland) is heavily blue collar and almost 100% white.
It has a young undereducated populus and had low turnout in 1968.
Our polls indicate that the President has a substantial lead and
that Nunn is neck and neck with Huddleston.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
June
60
24
16
+36
10/4
59
26
15
+33
Nunn
Huddleston
Undecided
Margin
December 1971
38
37
30
+ 1
June DMI
37
34
29
- 1
10/4 DMI
40
41
19
- 1
Regionally, the President leads in all parts of the state. Nunn
leads only in the eastern part of the state.
-2-
10/4
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Nunn
Huddleston
Undecided
*CD 1
50
36
14
31
56
12
CD 2
54
28
18
31
53
16
CD 3
53
52
15
38
44
18
CD 4
68
21
11
42
40
19
CD 5
66
23
11
51
37
11
CD 6
53
21
26
36
31
33
CD 7
62
22
16
48
24
29
*Attached is a Congressional District map.
The President also leads among all voter groups except Blacks.
Nunn is particularly weak among ticket-splitters and is receiving
only 76% of the registered Republican vote compared to the
President's 91%.
The large undecided in the Nunn/Huddleston race comes primarily from
middle-age voters and Wallace voters. Of those Wallace voters who
stated a preference most were voting for Huddleston.
There are three major issues in Kentucky besides the war in Vietnam.
They are mine safety, tobacco and drug abuse.
According to the Louisville Courier-Journal, Huddleston is trying to
identify himself with the President's stand on drug abuse. Recently,
the State adopted relaxed user and seller laws modeled on the recent
federal drug statutes. One provision reduced first-time selling of
drugs from a felony to a misdemeanor. Huddleston is in favor and Nunn
opposed to this section of the statute. Huddleston has stated as
recently as Monday that this is the President's feeling on the matter
and that Nunn must be opposed to Nixon if he is opposed to the law.
The area the President is visiting is in poor mining country and is
also the center for the U.M.W. hospital complex. (I believe it's
called the Appalachian Regional Hospital System.) The people here
are particularly sensitive to Black Lung and Nunn can benefit from
the President having signed it into law recently. Also, the State
has taken over the U.M.W. hospitals in the area because of debt pro-
blems and I am told there has been some kind of federal relief for
these hospitals proposed. This is a very popular idea in eastern
Kentucky.
Tobacco still remains a major cash crop in Kentucky. The poundage
control system is supported by Nunn and is very popular among the
raisers of tobacco in east and south Kentucky.
The Nunn/Huddleston race apparently is not exciting the voters to
any degree. The figures have not significantly changed in almost
a year. A closer identification between Nunn and the President will
benefit Nunn's candidacy and hopefully give his campaign the impetus
to pull ahead and win.
IFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
KENTUCKY
Congressional Districts, Counties and Selected Cities
(7 Districts)
HOUNT
Covingtong
LN12
Placence
Erlanger
SECURITY
CHIO
then
Other
Aggust
(GALLATIN
GRAN
PENDLETON
RACKEN
LEWIS
Palmouth
Mayaville
Vanceburg,
ngth
ashland
CHRISON
D
DIAL
New
ndon
INDIANA
begued:
Murchead
"
Georgetor
OParis
Frankfort
Jer
a
sure
Midway
Lexington
MEADE
a
VENIFIC
y
brandenburge
Your
Muldraugh
...
HOWER
with
transing
Heavers
overpun
Hardmshurg
invoice
East
amond
7
(he
Elizabethtown:
set
1
MADISON
-
Springfield
Danv.lte*
incaster
Rerea
OHIO Fordsene
Haven
-
-
-
ILLINOIS
GRAYSON
Huldenville
Lehanon
Sonorac
(MAP
ON
1
Hartbord
-
to
DMC'
MANT
INCOLE
Beaver
Date
REEN
Madisonville
D
Cammer
=
Liberty
Care
-
Munturdville
ADAIR
reensbure
Horse
Cavem
Citizens
COMONSON
E
Woodhut
Sumeract
Cay
Columbia
Pack
Education
Smiths
LOGAN
BARREN
Russell Springs
Bowln
Green
a
Classow
Edminior
WATH
Basks
*Cade
Authority
SLEN
CUMBERLAND
ONROE
Settle
MPSON
CLINTON
Liston
Russellville
Scottss INe #
Cooper
:
Previlline
Sevents
CNY
a
where
Fountain
Franklin
Hun
Tomplemaville
Alham
VITW
-
Murray
)
Fourth Wave
Coverged ulcwe Trial
California
October 19-23, 1972
1000 Personal Interviews
1968: +4
V.2
Heats
Chg. from
McGovern
Margin
Wave III
51
39
2
8
+12
-5
?
(-2)
(+ 3)
(+ 0)
(+ 0)
Ballots
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Undecided
Number
Republican
90
4
2
4
226
Ticket-Splitter
59
29
3
9
264
Democrat
22
68
2
8
346
18-24 years
37
54
5.
5
125
25-34 years
50
43
2
6
223
35-44 years
54
37
2
8
183
45-54 years
52
39
2
7
178
55-64 years
50
31
4
15
138
65 years +
61
29
1
9
143
Less than high school
38
48
2
12
205
High school graduate
56
33
3
8
322
College
53
39
2
6
468
Catholic
42
45
2
11
260
Protestant
58
33
2
7
595
Jewish
34
59
3
3
29
Union
39
51
2
9
308
Non-Union
57
33
3
7
649
Under $5,000
37
56
1
5
154
$5,000-$9,999
42
47
3
7
213
$10,000-$14,999
58
33
2
7
249
$15,000+
62
30
2
6
250
White
56
33
.3
8
818
Black
13
82
1
5
87
Brown
27
56
3
14
64
Los Angeles
53
37
2
8
364
San Francisco
37
54
2
7
41
San Diego
50
39
3
8
64
Rest of State
50
39
2
8
531
Vietnam Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Vietnam
50
40
10
Turnout
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely vote
96
92
Probably vote
3
6
May or may not vote
1
1
Definitely not vote
*
0
*Less than 1/2%
Democret
Catholic
umon under 10M
under 24
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave
Connecticut
October 17-22, 1972
448 Interviews (Phone)
1968: -6
V.
Trial Heats
Chg. from
McGovern
Margin
Wave III
Without Leaners
54
25
21
With Leaners
57
31
12
+26
-18
(-10)
(+ 8)
(+ 2)
Ballots (With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Number
Republican
89
10
1
132
Ticket-Splitter
63
21
16
157
Democrat
31
53
16
99
18-24 years
45
49
6
51
25-34 years
54
36
10
100
35-44 years
62
22
16
88
45-54 years
57
31
12
93
55-64 years
60
31
9
62
65 years +
63
22
15
47
,
Less than high school
46
38
16
72
High school graduate
65
22
13
175
College
54
38
8
197
Catholic
56
30
14
216
Protestant
69
26
5
153
Jewish
50
34
16
25
Union
49
39
12
153
Non-union
61
28
11
291
Under $5,000
65
31
4
39
$5,000-$9,999
51
38
11
113
$10,000-$14,999
56
34
10
105
$15,000 +
62
32
6
105
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
59
30
11
Vietnam
58
34
8
Economy
45
44
11
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
54
(-11)
Unemployment
20 (- 2)
Economy
19
(+ 1)
Inflation
11 (-12)
Poverty-Welfare
10 (-6)
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely vote for
82
82
Probably vote but still thinking
10
13
Undecided but lean toward
8
5
Don't Know
*
0
* Less than .5%
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave #2
New Jersey
October 17-22, 1972
513 Interviews (Phone)
1968: +2
V.2
Trial Heats
Chg. from
McGovern
Margin
Phone Poll
Without Leaners
55
29
16
With Leaners
58
33
9
+25
+0
(+ 0)
(+ 0)
(+ 0)
Ballots (With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Number
Republican
86
8
6
117
Ticket-Splitter
61
29
10
196
Democrat
44
49
7
127
18-24 years
33
62
5
57
25-34 years
58
39
3
91
35-44 years
73
20
7
112
45-54 years
60
31
9
116
55-64 years
62
24
14
68
65 years +
55
30
15
62
Less than high school
52
37
11
90
High school graduate
62
30
8
187
College
58
34
8
224
Catholic
61
27
12
226
Protestant
59
34
7
204
Jewish
36
64
0
38
Union
55
34
11
188
Non-union
59
34
7
316
Under $5,000
45
36
19
42
$5,000-$9,999
42
51
7
98
$10,000-$14,999
69
24
7
143
$15,000 +
65
31
4
135
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
56
30
14
Vietnam
55
37
8
Economy
43
45
12
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
52 (- 4)
Economy
16 (+ 7)
Unemployment
11 (- 3)
Drugs
9 (- 1)
Inflation
9 (- 7)
Taxes
9 (- 2)
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely vote for
82
85
Probably vote but still thinking
11
10
Undecided but lean toward
7
4
Don't Know
0
1
State Ballots
Senate:
CLIFFORD CASE
51
Paul Krebs
27
Undecided
22
New York
October 19-22, 1972
1000 Personal Interviews
1968:
-6
V
Trial Heats
Chg. from
McGovern
Margin
Wave III
53
36
1
11
+17
-5
(
-
3)
(+ 2)
(+ 1)
(- 1)
Ballots
Nixon
McGovern
Other
Undecided
Number
Republican
88
5
0
-6
231
Ticket-Splitter
63
24
0
13
271
Democrat
25
64
1
10
329
18-24 years
39
53
4
5
110
25-34 years
49
43
1
7
224
35-44 years
58
34
1
8
198
45-54 years
50
36
0
14
182
55-64 years
58
24
1
17
145
65 years +
64
23
0
13
132
Less than high school
54
36
0
10
211
High school graduate
59
29
0
11
431
College
45
43
2
10
352
Catholic
57
32
1
11
490
Protestant
63
29
1
7
312
Jewish
28
54
0
19
160
Union
48
43
1
8
371
Non-Union
56
31
1
12
599
Under $5,000
52
38
0
11
104
$5,000-$9,999
47
42
1
9
245
$10,000-$14,999
62
30
1
6
279
$15,000 +
52
37
1
10
227
White
57
31
1
11
900
Black
11
80
3
5
61
Brown
30
67
0
3
33
Manhattan
32
53
3
13
78
NYC (Not Manhattan)
41
48
1
10
293
New York Suburbs
64
27
1
9
209
Rochester SMSA
55
36
0
9
44
Syracuse SMSA
43
57
0
0
28
Rest of State
62
25
0
12
348
Vietnam Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Vietnam
51
38
12
Turnout
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely vote
92
89
Probably vote
5
7
May or may not vote
2
2
Definitely not vote
1
1
Don't Know
*
1
*Less than .5%
Pennsylvania
October 20-22, 1972
Rolling Wave #3
800 Personal Interviews
1968: -4
Trial Heats
V-2
Chg. from
McGovern
Margin
Wave III
58
31
1
11
+27
-6
(-2)
(+ 4)
(- 1)
(- 1)
Ballots
Nixon
McGovern
Schmitz
Undecided
Number
Republican
86 (- 2)
9 (+ 7)
*
(- 1)
5 (- 3)
214
Ticket-Splitter
59 (-6) 6)
26 (+ 7)
1 (- 1)
14 (+ 1)
229
Democrat
35 (-2)
52 (+ 0)
1 (+ 0)
11 (+ 1)
271
18-24 years
53 (+ 1)
43 (+ 5)
1 (+ 0)
3 (- 7)
70
25-34 years
63 (+ 5)
27 (- 2)
1 (+ 0)
9 (- 2)
147
35-44 years
50 (-10)
31 (+ 3)
1 (- 1)
18 (+ 8)
156
45-54 years
61 (+ 2)
30 (+ 2)
1 (- 1)
8 (- 3)
192
55-64 years
57 (- 6)
34 (+13)
0 (- 2)
9 (- 5)
138
65 years +
59 (- 8)
26 (+ 8)
1 (- 1)
15 (+ 0)
94
Less than high school
50 (- 3)
36 (+ 5)
0 (- 2)
14 (- 1)
194
High school graduate
60 (- 4)
29 (+ 5)
1 (+ 0)
11 (+ 1)
400
College
61 (- 1)
30 (+ 3)
2 (+ 0)
7 (- 2)
203
Catholic
54 (- 9)
33 (+ 5)
* (+ 1)
13 (+ 4)
266
Protestant
62 (+ 2)
29 (+ 3)
1 (- 1)
8 (- 4)
468
Jewish
41 (+ 1)
41 (- 2)
0 (- 3)
17 (+ 3)
29
Union
54 (- 1)
34 (+ 1)
1 (- 1)
12 (+ 2)
325
Non-Union
61 (- 2)
30 (+ 7)
1 (+ 0)
9 (- 4)
430
Under $5,000
50 (-10)
38 (+14)
0 (- 1)
13 (- 2)
101
$5,000-$9,999
53 0)
35 (+ 0)
1 (+ 0)
11 (+ 0)
251
$10,000-$14,999
62 (-8)
30 (+10)
1 (-1)
7 (- 1)
228
Over $15,000
70 (+ 8)
19 (- 7)
2 (+ 1)
9 (- 2)
113
White
63 (- 3)
25 (+ 4)
1 (- 1)
11 (+ 0)
683
Black
17 (+ 4)
75 (+ 3)
1 (+ 0)
7 (- 8)
89
Brown
0
(-33)
100
(+33)
0 (+ 0)
0 (+ 0)
1
Philadelphia
36 (- 2)
48 (+ 2)
1 (+ 1)
13 (- 3)
146
Philadelphia Suburbs
67 (+ 1)
25 (+.3)
0 (-2)
7 (- 3)
126
Alleghony County
52 (- 8)
36 (+ 5)
1 (- 3)
11 (+ 7)
113
Southwest
67 (+ 1)
22 (- 2)
1 (+ 1)
10 (+ 0)
104
Anthracite Area
58 (- 9)
20 (+ 1)
0 (+ 0)
22 (+ 8)
64
Other
66 (- 2)
23 (+ 8)
1 (- 1)
9 (- 6)
247
Vietnam Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Vietnam
53
36
11
Turnout
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely vote
85
87
Probably vote
8
7
May or may not vote
4
2
Definitely not vote
*
*
Don't Know
2
4
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
October 27, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Evans
SUBJECT:
Presidential Visit to Ohio
Ohio has been in the past and continues to be the most solid of
the large industrial states in its support for the President. He
carried it by 273,000 votes (53%) in 1960 and by 90,000 votes
(45%) in 1968. Wallace got 12% in 1968.
With only a few exceptions the President ran behind his statewide
strength in the areas he will be visiting Saturday.
1968
1970
President
Senate
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Taft
Metzenbaum
Statewide
45
43
12
52
48
Summit Co.
40
48
12
46
54
Northfield Center
45
43
12
48
52
Portage Co.
41
45
14
47
53
Aurora
59
27
13
60
40
Hiram
49
40
11
54
46
Garretsville
54
36
9
57
43
Trumbull Co.
40
49
11
45
55
Warren
40
51
9
43
57
Braceville
42
43
12
46
54
Cuyahoga Co.
35
54
11
43
54
Cleveland
21
67
12
27
73
Brecksville
64
27
8
64
36
Parma Hts.
48
41
11
50+
50-
Hamilton Co.
50
37
13
63
37
Cincinnati
43
46
11
54
46
Our private polls show the President running well ahead of both his
1960 and 1968 strength statewide and in the areas he will visit.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
6/27 - 1701
56
38
6
+24
9/6 - 1701
60
32
9
+28
10/20 - 1701
59
31
10
+28
-2-
Our Dent recent poll indicates that the President's supporters in
Ohio are more intense in their commitment to him and will turn out
at a higher rate han the McGovern supporters.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
9/16 - 1701
North and East
55
36
9
+19
Northwest
58
34
8
+24
Southwest
71
21
7
+50
Central & Southeast
54
34
11
+20
9/27 - Cuyahoga County
45
43
12
+ 2
The most important local issues in this area of the state are crime,
air and water pollution, unemployment, taxes and inflation in that
order. Crime is of particular importance in Cuyahoga County. The
economic issues, particularly unemployment and taxes, are important
across northeastern Ohio. Air and water pollution continue to be
the second or third most important concern in Cuyahoga County. This
northeastern area of the state is almost entirely urban and industrial.
The specific areas the President's tour will visit are:
Brook Park
An industrial suburb with large GM and Ford plants,
heavily blue collar U.A.W.
Parma and
Second largest city in Cuyahoga County. Working class
Parma Hts.
suburb, heavily Democratic and with large numbers of
ethnics who have moved from the city 10-15 years ago.
Parma is a key part of Minshall's Congressional dis-
trict and a 9/29 poll shows Minshall ahead 43-37.
Mayor Perk is very popular in Parma, Parma Hts., and
Brook Park.
Northfield,
Small rural communities that are becomming upper middle
Aurora and
class suburbs of Cleveland and Akron. They are marginally
Hiram
Republican with high ticket-splitters. Northfield has
a large Chrysler plant (Twinsburg), and Hiram has a
small college. Northfield Center is in Summit County
(Ray Bliss' home county).
COMMITTMENT BALLOT
California
Illinois
Michigan
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Definitely Nixon
42
41
34
42
38
39
39
Probably Nixon
46
9
12
10
9
11
8
Undecided/Lean to Nixon
3
5
7
6
6
6
6
Completely Undecided
9
9
7
8
12
10
7
Undecided/Lean to McGovern
4
4
4
5
4
5
5
Probably McGovern
8
6
11
6
7
8
6
Definitely McGovern
26
12
16
17
23
15
8
Dates
10/19-23
9/5-13
9/5-7
9/5-11
10/20-23
9/5-6
10/20-22
# of Interviews
1,000
797
804
829
1,000
800
800
OK
Cal
per H 10/26
Mich.
Wiss.
OPINION SURVEY
I'm
,
and I'm working on a survey about problems and
political figures in the country being made for Opinion Research Corporation of
Princeton, New Jersey. I'd like very much to have your opinion.
1. Are you registered to vote in the
1 YES
IF "YES," CONTINUE INTERVIEW
Presidential election in 1972?
2 NO
IF "NO," TERMINATE INTERVIEW
2. What do you think are the most important problems facing the United States
as a nation at this time?
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
President Nixon is handling the Vietnam
2 DISAPPROVE
situation?
3 NO OPINION
4.
If the election for President were held
1 RICHARD NIXON
today, would you be voting for Richard
2 GEORGE McGOVERN
Nixon, the Republican; or George McGovern,
3 UNDECIDED
GO TO 4b
the Democrat?
IF "NIXON" OR "McGOVERN" ON Q. 4, ASK:
4a As of today will you definitely vote
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
,
probably vote
2 PROBABLY VOTE
but still thinking about it, or are you
BUT STILL THINKING ABOUT IT
undecided but leaning toward
?
3 UNDECIDED BUT LEANING
TOWARD
IF "UNDECIDED" ON Q. 4, ASK:
4b As of today, do you lean toward
1 McGOVERN
McGovern or Nixon?
2 NIXON
3 UNDECIDED
5. In the election this Fall will you
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
definitely vote, probably vote, may
2 PROBABLY VOTE
3 MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
or may not vote, probably not vote,
4 PROBABLY NOT VOTE
or definitely not vote?
5 DEFINITELY NOT VOTE
6 DON'T KNOW
6. Have you seen, heard or read anything in the last two
or three days about recent developments in the
1 YES
Vietnam peace negotiations?
2 NO
IF "YES" ON Q. 6, ASK:
6a. Do you believe that there will actually be a
Vietnam peace settlement signed and that the
1 YES
War will be over in the next few weeks?
2 NO
7. The charge has been made that President Nixon
could have made the Vietnam peace settlement long
ago and that he delayed it just to help his reelection.
Do you agree or disagree with this charge?
1 AGREE
2 DISAGREE
3 DON'T KNOW
T
8.
How serious of a problem do you think corruption is
in the federal government -- very serious, fairly
serious, not very serious or not at all serious?
1 VERY SERIOUS
2 FAIRLY SERIOUS
3 NOT VERY SERIOUS
4 NOT AT ALL SERIOUS
5 DON'T KNOW
9.
Are there any recent examples of corruption or
influence peddling that you can think of and
that concern you and what are they?
X NONE.
IF "SPECIFIC ANSWER," ASK:
9a. Will this make you more likely to vote
1 MORE LIKELY VOTE RICHARD NIXON
for Richard Nixon, more likely to vote
2 MORE LIELY VOTE GEORGE McGOVERN
for George McGovern or not make any
3 NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
difference to you when you vote this
4 DON'T KNOW
Fall?
10. Do you think George McGovern or Richard Nixon
would do the better job of keeping corruption
1 GEORGE McGOVERN
and influence peddling out of the Federal
2 RICHARD NIXON
Government over the next four years?
3 DON'T KNOW
T
11. Senator McGovern has charged that the Nixon
1 POLITICAL CHARGE BY DESPERATE
administration is one of the most corrupt in
POLITICIAN
history. Some people have said that this is
2 MOST CORRUPT ADMINISTRATION
simply a political charge by a desperate
AND NEEDS EXPLAINING
politician who is far behind. Others agree
3 DON'T KNOW
with him and think President Nixon needs to
answer and explain these charges. Which side
do you agree with?
12. In the last general election in which you
1 STRAIGHT DEMOCRAT
voted, which answer best describes how you
2 MOSTLY DEMOCRAT
voted for state and local offices such as
3 A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
Governor and Senator? (READ CHOICES TO
REPUBLICANS
RESPONDENT.)
4 ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH PARTIES
5 A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
6 MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
7 STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
8 NEVER VOTED
9 DON'T KNOW
-3-
13. What is your age?
1 17-20 YEARS
7 45-49 YEARS
2 21-24 YEARS
8 50-54 YEARS
3 25-29 YEARS
9 55-59-YEARS
4 30-34 YEARS
10 60-64 YEARS
5 35-39 YEARS
11 65 AND OVER
6 40-44 YEARS
12 REFUSED
14.
What is the last grade of school
you completed?
1 GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS (GRADES 1-8)
2 SOME HIGH SCHOOL
3 GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL (GRADE 12)
4 VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL SCHOOL
5 SOME COLLEGE
6 GRADUATE COLLEGE
7 POST GRADUATE WORK
8 REFUSED
15. What is your religion?
1 ROMAN CATHOLIC
2 PROTESTANT
3 JEWISH
4 OTHER. (Specify)
16.
Are you a labor union member?
1 YES
2 NO
IF "NO" ON Q. 16; ASK:
16a. Is any member of your immediate
1 YES
family a union member?
2 NO
17.
Which classification included your
1 0-$2,999
TOTAL FAMILY INCOME IN 1971 before
2 $3,000-$4,999
taxes? (READ CHOICES TO RESPONDENT.)
3 $5,000-$5,999
4 $6,000-$6,999
5 $7,000-$9,999
6 $10,000-$14,999
7 $15,000-$24,999
8 $25,000 AND OVER
9 REFUSED
18. Sex:
1 MALE
2 FEMALE
19. What county do you live in?
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 26, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Campaign Polling - Response
to McGovern Releases
Senator McGovern has been using his private polls in
New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania recently to indicate
he is improving his position. Usually the polls are
pushed by the pollster Pat Caddell and Frank Mankiewicz
or Governor Shapp. Clark MacGregor wants to respond to
these McGovern thrusts with Bob Teeter. Teeter has not been
permitted to speak publicly before.
Bob Teeter could brief 6 reporters on the three personal
interview polls conducted last weekend. The California,
New York and Pennsylvania results would be given in detail
to AP, UPI, and reporters selected from each of the three
states. Teeter's briefing would be Friday for Sunday
release.
Recommendation:
92/01
That you approve Teeter's briefing Friday.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
Ringer
Lupi
Teeter has also submitted a plan for the polling between
now and the election. It is attached. He recommends
500 interview telephone polls in Michigan, California and
Wisconsin. Since McGovern has been indicating Wisconsin
is one of his strongest states. The results of Teeter's
Wisconsin poll could be released next week
A questionnaire is being prepared.
OI
PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 26, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RmT
SUBJECT:
Polling
Gordon Strachan has asked for my thoughts on polling between
now and the election.
First, I think that the slight slippage we have observed during
the last few weeks accompanied by some McGovern gain will continue
and probably accelerate during the last 10 days. There are in
most of the major states three or four times as many undecided
Democrats and ticket-splitters as Republicans.
The arguments against doing any polling this weekend are that
we do not have the ability to act on the data as the time is past
that we could make any significant adjustments in the allocation
of any of our resources --- scheduling, advertising or organization.
The arguments for doing some polling this weekend are:
--- That is would give us some "peace of mind" data and minimize
the apprehension or panic that might set in the first of the week.
-- It would serve as a safety measure to make sure that the movement
to McGovern is not accelerating at a rate that would jeopardize
our chances of carrying the major states.
--- It would give us a current measure of the Vietnam situation
and impact of the peace discussions.
- It would allow us to get some trend data on the corruption
issue and see if the coverage of the Post stories and McGovern's
charges had any significant effect.
If we decide to poll I think that the interviewing should be done on
Saturday and Sunday with the data available late Monday. Data will
be available on Thursday and Friday from several state public polls
that will be published Sunday. We should do phone samples of 500
in Michigan, California and possibly Illinois or Wisconsin. We
- 2 -
would - use the same questionnaire as we used in previous telephone
polls including the corruption questions withe the addition of
questions on Vietnam. The areas I think we should cover with regard
to Vietnam are: Could we have made the same settlement we are
making earlier?, Is the President using Vietnam peace for political
purposes?, Are we allowing Thieu to dictate our actions and has
the President switched to what has been essentially the McGovern
position?
If we do these polls, it will cost us $4-5,000 per state and we
would use ORC.
Recommendation: That we poll at least two of the four states
mentioned above over this weekend.
If this recommendation is approved, I will have a questionnaire
for you later today.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
CONFIDENTIAL ONLY
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 26, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDBMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Polling - Response
to McGovern Releases
Senator McGovern has been using his private polls in
New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania recently to indicate
he is improving his position. Usually the polls aree
pushed by the pollster Pat Caddell and Frank Mankiewicz
or Governer Shapp. Clark MacGregor wants to respond to
these MoGovern thrusts with Bob Teeter. Teeter has not been
permitted to speak publicly before.
Bob Teeter could brief 6 reporters on the three personal
interview polls conducted last weekend. The California,
New York and Pennsylvania results would be given in detail
to AP, UPI, and reporters selected from each of the three
states. Teeter's briefing would be Friday for Sunday
release.
Recommendation:
That you approve Teeter's briefing Friday.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
Tester has also submitted a plan for the polling between
now and the election. It is attached. He recommends
500 interview telephone polls in Michigan, California and
Wisconsin, Since MoGovern has been indicating Winconsin
is one of his strongest states. The results of Teeter's
Wisconsin poll could be released next week.
A questionnaire is being prepared.
GS/jb
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 26, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Emprise NARS, Date 5.22-80
CONFIDENTIAL EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Rent
SUBJECT:
Polling
Gordon Strachan has asked for my thoughts on polling between
now and the election.
First, I think that the slight slippage we have observed during
the last few weeks accompanied by some McGovern gain will continue
and probably accelerate during the last 10 days. There are in
most of the major states three or four times, as many undecided
Democrats and ticket-splitters as Republicans.
The arguments against doing any polling this weekend are that
we do not have the ability to act on the data as the time is past
that we could make any significant adjustments in the allocation
of any of our resources -- scheduling, advertising or organization.
The arguments for doing some polling this weekend are:
-- That is would give us some "peace of mind" data and minimize
the apprehension or panic that might set in the first of the week.
- It would serve as a safety measure to make sure that the movement
to McGovern is not accelerating at a rate that would jeopardize
our chances of carrying the major states.
-- It would give us a current measure of the Vietnam situation
and impact of the peace discussions.
-- It would allow us to get some trend data on the corruption
issue and see if the coverage of the Post stories and McGovern's
charges had any significant effect.
If we decide to poll I think that the interviewing should be done on
Saturday and Sunday with the data available late Monday. Data will
be available on Thursday and Friday from several state public polls
that will be published Sunday. We should do phone samples of 500
in Michigan, California and possibly Illinois or Wisconsin. We
- 2 -
would use the same questionnaire as we used in previous telephone
polls including the corruption questions withe the addition of
questions on Vietnam. The areas I think we should cover with regard
to Vietnam are: Could we have made the same settlement we are
making earlier?, Is the President using Vietnam peace for political
purposes?, Are we allowing Thieu to dictate our actions and has
the President switched to what has been essentially the McGovern
position?
If we do these polls, it will cost us $4-5,000 per state and we
would use ORC.
Recommendation: That we poll at least two of the four states
mentioned above over this weekend.
If this recommendation is approved, I will have a questionnaire
for you later today.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
TO
it
IDENT
10/26
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE ARKING
ANOUN
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 26, 1972
By Emprise NARS, Date 5-22-80
ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RmT
SUBJECT:
Polling
Gordon Strachan has asked for my thoughts on polling between
now and the election.
First, I think that the slight slippage we have observed during
the last few weeks accompanied by some McGovern gain will continue
and probably accelerate during the last 10 days. There are in
most of the major states three or four times as many undecided
Democrats and ticket-splitters as Republicans.
The arguments against doing any polling this weekend are that
we do not have the ability to act on the data as the time is past
that we could make any significant adjustments in the allocation
of any of our resources - scheduling, advertising or organization.
The arguments for doing some polling this weekend are:
That is would give us some "peace of mind" data and minimize
the apprehension or panic that might set in the first of the week.
-- It would serve as a safety measure to make sure that the movement
to McGovern is not accelerating at a rate that would jeopardize
our chances of carrying the major states.
-- It would give us a current measure of the Vietnam situation
and impact of the peace discussions.
It would allow us to get some trend data on the corruption
issue and see if the coverage of the Post stories and McGovern's
charges had any significant effect.
If we decide to poll I think that the interviewing should be done on
Saturday and Sunday with the data available late Monday. Data will
be available on Thursday and Friday from several state public polls
that will be published Sunday We should do phone samples of 500
in Michigan, California and possibly Illinois or Wisconsin. We
2 -
would use the same questionnaire as we used in previous telephone
polls including the corruption questions withe the addition of
questions on Vietnam. The areas I think we should cover with regard
to Vietnam arc: Could we have made the same settlement we are
making earlier?, Is the President using Vietnam peace for political
purposes?, Are we allowing Thieu to dictate our actions and has
the President switched to what has been essentially the McGovern
position?
If we do these polls, it will cost us $4-5,000 per state and we
would use ORC.
Recommendation: That we poll at least two of the four states
mentioned above over this weekend.
If this recommendation is approved, I will have a questionnaire
for you later today.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
To
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
H1426
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUM
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 26, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EmPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
mT
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Michigan
There have been several reports in the press this week of
slippage in Michigan.
Gordon Strachan asked for my thoughts on the situation there.
While we do not have any polling data from the last two weeks
I think our lead there is the softest of any of the major states.
Moreover, past elections indicate that the Democratic candidate
can be expected to gain 7-9% over the last three weeks. We had
a 13% lead on October 11 and if this year resembles previous
ones, we can expect to end up with.52-54% on election day.
Michigan is, however, one of the few states where McGovern has
an outside chance of carrying should things go his way during the
last 10 days.
The McGovern campaign knows this and is making a maximum effort
there. McGovern, Shriver and Kennedy have been there several
times and are scheduled to be there four or five more times between
now and the election. They are also running a very heavy media
campaign with particular emphasis on radio spots focusing on the
economy and corruption.
I get somewhat conflicting reports from the political people I
know and trust there. They tell me that there is very solid evidence
of strong support for the President in the middle-income, union,
suburbs of Detroit but at the same time they are concerned about
the major effort being mounted by the UAW. It is very similar to
their efforts to pull the Wallace voters back to Humphrey in 1968.
They are also concerned about some slippage and apathy in the out-
state cities.
- 2 -
In summary, Michigan is undoubtedly the softest of the big
states for us. I think we should give it some special attention
during the last 10 days. As I have said several times before, I
think the President should go to Michigan next week and we should
give the state special attention in terms of advertising. If the
President does go to Michigan, the first priority should be western
Wayne County and second either Macomb or a stop in the thumb area
(Flint or Saginaw).
I also think it would be effective if one of our major surrogates
(preferably the Vice President) would go there and hit McGovern
hard on bussing and most importantly the economic implications
of his proposals ---- that they would be inflationary and force tax
increases.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date 10/25/72
TO:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
Here is Teeter's analysis of
Kentucky. The political analysis
in the trip package has been
checked against it and with two
changes is ok. We can retype
these if you give them to the
President or leave as is if you
cover. it verbally with him.
Retype
Leave as is
DETERMINEONTOEANor the Re-election of the President
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
MEMORANDUM NAR. , Date 5-22-80 October 24, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Kentucky
In 1968 the President received 44%, Humphrey 38% and Wallace 19% in
Kentucky.
In 1968 the President trailed the average Republican vote by 8%
statewide and ran far behind it in the Louisville area. This was
probably due to Wallace's high percentage.
Average
1968
1968 Senate
Rep.
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Cook Peden
Other
Vote
Kentucky
44
38
19
51.
48
1
52
Jefferson Co.
43
41.
16
56
42
2
59
(Louisville)
Fayette Co.
50
33
17
58
41
1
56
(Lexington)
Boyd Co.
45
43
13
49
50
1
49
(Ashland)
Boyd County (Ashland) is heavily blue collar and almost 100% white.
It has a young undereducated populus and had low turnout in 1968.
Our polls indicate that the President has a substantial lead and
that Nunn is neck and neck with Huddleston.
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
June
60
24
16
+36
10/4
59
26
15
+33
Nunn
Huddleston
Undecided
Margin
December 1971
38
37
30
+ 1
June DMI
37
34
29
- 1
10/4 DMI
40
41
19
- 1
Regionally, the President leads in all parts of the state. Nunn
leads only in the eastern part of the state.
-2-
10/4
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Nunn
Huddleston
Undecided
*CD 1
50
36
14
31
56
12
CD 2
54
28
18
31
53
16
CD 3
53
52
15
38
44
18
CD 4
68
21
11
42
40
19
CD 5
66
23
11
51
37
11
CD 6
53
21
26
36
31
33
CD 7
62
22
16
48
24
29
*Attached is a Congressional District map.
The President also leads among all voter groups except Blacks.
Nunn is particularly weak among ticket-splitters and is receiving
only 76% of the registered Republican vote compared to the
President's 91%.
The large undecided in the Nunn/Huddleston race comes primarily from
middle-age voters and Wallace voters. Of those Wallace voters who
stated a preference most were voting for Huddleston.
There are three major issues in Kentucky besides the war in Vietnam.
They are mine safety, tobacco and drug abuse.
According to the Louisville Courier-Journal, Huddleston is trying to
identify himself with the President's stand on drug abuse. Recently,
the State adopted relaxed user and seller laws modeled on the recent
federal drug statutes. One provision reduced first-time selling of
drugs from a felony to a misdemeanor. Huddleston is in favor and Nunn
opposed to this section of the statute. Huddleston has stated as
recently as Monday that this is the President's feeling on the matter
and that Nunn must be opposed to Nixon if he is opposed to the law.
The area the President is visiting is in poor mining country and is
also the center for the U.M.W. hospital complex. (I believe it's
called the Appalachian Regional Hospital System.) The people here
are particularly sensitive to Black Lung and Nunn can benefit from
the President having signed it into law recently. Also, the State
has taken over the U.M.W. hospitals in the area because of debt pro-
blems and I am told there has been some kind of federal relief for
these hospitals proposed. This is a very popular idea in eastern
Kentucky.
Tobacco still remains a major cash crop in Kentucky. The poundage
control system is supported by Nunn and is very popular among the
raisers of tobacco in east and south Kentucky.
The Nunn/Huddleston race apparently is not exciting the voters to
any degree. The figures have not significantly changed in almost
a year. A closer identification between Nunn and the President will
benefit Nunn's candidacy and hopefully give his campaign the impetus
to pull ahead and win.
ONLY
KENTUCKY
Congressional Districts, Counties and Selected Cities
17 Districts)
1
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/RANNIN
Rosse
Bowling Green
WAYNE
UMBERLAND
D
Auth
ONR
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PMPSON
A.
CLINTON
Russellville
Scottsville
Burnesvide
Corpo
Physician
City
c
Fountain
Frank)
Tomal
I
Murray
,
J
⑆
THE WHITE HOUSE
MS
WASHINGTON
October 18, 1972
In you
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
file
FROM:
L. HIGBY
SUBJECT:
Addendum to Teeter Memo
Discussion with Teeter this morning, October 18, 1972
indicates the following:
1. We have already polled by telephone West
Virginia, New Hampshire, Washington, and
Pennsylvania. Results for all of these should
be in today.
2. Teeter has talked to Clark MacGregor and we
have come up with the following compromise
proposal:
a. Since the telephone lines are contracted
2
through this weekend, do Illinois, Ohio,
New Jersey, Connecticut, and perhaps Wisconsin
by telephone.
and
b. Do personal interviews in New York,
California, and Pennsylvania over the weekend.
By doing these three key states Juner by personal interview,
we'll get a valid run late in the campaign of what the
at - the
situation is with regard to the inflation of the Nixon
column that Teeter mentions in his memorandum. We
would be able then to follow-up with additional polling,
either personal interview, panel, or by telephone as
?
necessary.
Also, this plan would keep us within budget.
Approve
Disapprove
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER Run RUNT
SUBJECT:
Final Polling
Attached is a schedule for the next series of telephone polls which
would run through October 30. Assuming we continue our phone polling
through November 5, we will spend $24,000 less than our total budget
allocation. If we also do personal interview studies in New York
and California later this week they will cost us an additional $30,000
which would put us about $6,000 over our budget. There are three
alternatives which would keep us within budget:
1. To conduct one personal interview study in either New York or
California and continue with daily polls through November 5.
2. To terminate our telephone interviewing with our current series
on October 30. This would save $15,000 and allow us to do personal
interview studies in both New York and California and still end up
a few thousand under budget.
3. To terminate our telephone interviewing this weekend (October 22),
which would save $30,000. This saving along with the $24,000 remaining
in the budget would allow us to do five personal interview studies
over the weekend. We would then finish about even or just slightly
over budget.
My recommendation is that we terminate the phone interviewing this
Sunday, October 22, and do personal interview studies late this week
in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California. Data
would be available next Tuesday or Wednesday. If any of these states
appear to be sliding or in serious trouble, we would have the option
of doing a quick panel or regular telephone study in that state any
time during the last ten days.
The advantage of this last course of action is that we will have
absolutely reliable data that we are confident to act on during the
last two weeks of the campaign. I do not have this confidence in
the telephone data we have received during the past three weeks.
This problem may be with the weighing of the data or, in fairness
to ORC, in the phone technique itself. There is some evidence that
in a year when one candidate is far ahead and appears to be an
-2-
obvious landslide, some people are hesitant to tell a telephone
interviewer that they are going to vote for McGovern and may tend
to show a preference for Nixon because it is the socially accepted
position. This may well be the reason that our telephone polls,
the Yankelovich studies and Sindlinger all have consistently shown
larger margins through the Fall than the personal interview studies.
This problem is minimized with the secret ballot technique. Our
test with Michigan over the weekend leads me to believe that this
is at least a portion of the problem. ORC did Michigan on the
telephone at exactly the same time that MOR was doing the Detroit
News Poll: The News poll was a personal interview study which
used an exact duplicate of the Michigan printed ballot with vignette
and straight ballot boxes. It gave us a margin of 13%. Regardless
of how the telephone poll was weighed, it gave us a margin of 23-25%.
Recommendation: That we terminate our telephone interviewing this
Sunday and do personal interview studies with secret ballots in
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California beginning
as soon as possible with the data available Tuesday and Wednesday,
the 24th and 25th. If you definitely want to finish under budget
we should cut one of these.
Approved:
Disapproved:
Comment:
Attached is a draft of a questionnaire I recommend we use for any
personal interview studies we do. We. will have to keep the interview
this short in order for the companies involved to turn it around in
our time limit. We will, of course, include all major state races
on the ballot.
Hello, I'm Mrs.
from Market Opinion Research, a national research
company with headquarters in Detroit. We are making a study of problems and
political figures in
and would like to have your coinions.
(state name)
1. Are you now registered to vote here in
7
YES (GO TO Q. 2)
1
(state name)
NO (GO TO Q.la)
2
a. Do you intend to register so you will be able to vote in the 1972
Presidential election?
YES (GO TO Q. 2)
1
NO (TERMINATE)
2
What do you think are the most important problems facing the United States
as a nation at this time? (PROBE)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard
APPROVE
1
Nixon is handling his job as President?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President
APPROVE
1
Nixon is handling the Vietnam situation?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon
APPROVE
1
is dealing with the economic conditions in this country?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
INTERVIEWER: ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK QUESTIONS 8 AND 9.
How would you rate Richard Nixon in terms of his ability
VERY ABLE
1
to handle the job of President - very able, fairly able,
FAIRLY ABLE
2
not very able, not at all able?
NOT VERY ABLE
3
NOT AT ALL ABLE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
How would you rate George McGovern in terms of his ability
VERY ABLE
1
to handle the job of President -- very able, fairly able,
FAIRLY ABLE
2
not very able, not at all able?
NOT VERY ABLE
3
NOT AT ALL ABLE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
8.
Now, I'm going to mand you a sample election ballot. I would like you to
mark it just as you would if the election were being held today.
Here is another ballot on which you can indicate how strongly you feel about
the candidate you voted for on the sample ballot. Please mark the position
on it that best describes your feelings.
Please put them in the envelope, seal it, and return it to me.
9.
In the election this fall will you definitely vote,
DEFINITELY VOTE
1
probably vote, may or may not vote, probably not
PRO3ABLY VOTE
2
vote, or definitely not vote?
MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
3
DEFINITELY NOT VOTE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
10.
How serious of a problem do you think corruption
VERY SERIOUS
1
is in the federal government -- very serious,
FAIRLY SERIOUS
2
fairly serious, not very serious or not at all
NOT VERY SERIOUS
3
serious?
NOT AT ALL SERIOUS
4
DON'T KNOW
5
Are there any recent examples of corruption or
influence peddling that you can think of and
that concern you and what are they?
(IF "SPECIFIC ANSWER," ASK:)
lla. Will this make you more likely to vote
MORE LIKELY VOTE NIXON
1
for Richard Nixon, more likely to vote
MORE LIKELY VOTE McGOVERN
2
for George McGovern or not make any
NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
3
difference to you when you vote this Fall?
DON'T KNOW
4
12. Do you think George McGovern or Richard Nixon
GEORGE McGCVERN
1
would do the better job of keeping corruption
RICHARD NIXON
2
and influence peddling out of the Federal
DON'T KNOW
3
Government over the next four years?
13.
Senator McGovern has charged that the Nixon
POLITICAL CHARGE BY
administration is one of the most corrupt in
DESPERATE POLITICIAN
1
history. Some people have said that this is
MOST CORRUPT ADMINISTRATION
simply a political charge by a desperate
AND NEEDS EXPLAINING
2
politician who is far behind. Others agree
DON'T KNOW
3
with him and think President Nixon needs to
answer and explain these charges. Which side
do you agree with?
-2-
I.
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a
REPUBLICAN
1
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or what?
INDEPENDENT
2
DEMOCRAT
3
DON'T KNOW
4
II. In the last general election in which you voted,
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
1
which answer on this card (HAND POLITICAL CARD)
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
2
best describes how you voted for state and local
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS
offices such as Governor and Senator?
THAN REPUBLICANS
3
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
-+
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
5
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
6
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
7
NEVER VOTED
8
DON'T KNOW
9
III. For whom did you vote for President in 1968?
NIXON
1
HUMPHREY
2
WALLACE
3
DIDN'T VOTE
4
Now a few questions for statistical purposes
DON'T KNOW
5
IV. What is your approximate age? (SHOW AGE CARD)
17-20
01
21-24
02
25-29
03
30-34
04
35-39
05
40-44
06
45-49
07
50-54
08
55-59
09
60-64
10
65 AND OVER
11
REFUSED
12
V. What is the last grade of school you completed?
GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS
(Grades 1-8)
1
SOME HIGH SCHOOL
2
GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL
(Grades 9-12)
3
VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL
SCHOOL
4
SOME COLLEGE
5
GRADUATED COLLEGE
6
POST GRADUATE WORK
7
REFUSED
8
VI. What is your religion?
ROMAN CATHOLIC
1
PROTESTANT (eg. Baptist
Methodist, etc.)
2
JEWISH
3
OTHER (SPECIFY)
4
VII. (BY OBSERVATION) RACE:
WHITE
1
NEGRO
2
ORIENTAL
3
SPANISH-AMERICAN
4
OTHER (SPECIFY)
5
VIII. Are you a labor union member
YES
1
NO
2
a. (IF "NO" ASK:) Is any member of your immediate
YES
1
family a union member.
NO
2
XI. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
MALE
1
FEMALE
2
XII. (SHOW INCOME CARD) Which classification includes
0-$2,999
1
your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME in 1971 before taxes?
$3,000-$4,999
2
$5,000-$5,999
3
$6,000-$6,999
4
$7,000-$9,999
5
$10,000-$14,999
6
$15,000-$24,999
7
$25,000 AND OVER
8
REFUSED
9
Committee for the Re-election of the President
Bas
MEMORANDUM
October 23, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
IPIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Emprise
5-22-80
MEMORANDUM- FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M: TEETER
SUBJECT:
Phone Polls
Attached are flash reports on the New York and California telephone
polls done over the weekend by ORC. Also attached is the full
report on Ohio.
I also received data from a Rhode Island poll done by Becker for
Chafee over the weekend.
500 Telephone Interviews
Previous Poll
October 21-22, 1972
October 15, 1972
Change
Becker Research
Nixon
57
Nixon
57
+0
McGovern
33
McGovern
29
+4
Undecided
10
Undecided
14
-4
Senate
Previous Poll
Change
Chafee
48
Chafee
47
+1
Pell
44
Pell
39
+5
Undecided
8
Undecided
14
-6
Los Angeles/Orange County
Previous Poll
Listening Post
Sept. 21-30, 1972
Change
1,000 Telephone Interviews
October 5-22, 1972
Nixon
61
Nixon
62
-1
McGovern
27
McGovern
22
+5
Undecided
12
Undecided
16
-4
-2-
Iowa Poll (Published 10/22)
476 Telephone Interviews
Previous Poll
October 12-15, 1972
September 22, 1972
Change
Nixon
60
Nixon
64
-4
McGovern
27
McGovern
29
-2
Other
1
Other
1
+0
Undecided
12
Undecided
6
+6
Note: Increase in undecided is probably due to switch from personal
interviews to telephone interviews.
Senate
Miller
51
Clark
31
Undecided
18
Committee for the Re-election of the President
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUM NISTRATIVE MARKING
October 23, 1972
By
Section 6-102
5-22-80
GONF ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M: TEETER
SUBJECT:
Phone Polls
Attached are flash reports on the New York and California telephone
polls done over the weekend by ORC. Also attached is the full
report on Ohio.
I also received data from a Rhode Island poll done by Becker for
Chafee over the weekend.
500 Telephone Interviews
Previous Poll
October 21-22, 1972
October 15, 1972
Change
Becker Research
Nixon
57
Nixon
57
+0
McGovern
33
McGovern
29
+4
Undecided
10
Undecided
14
-4
Senate
Previous Poll
Change
Chafee
48
Chafee
47
+1
Pell
44
Pell
39
+5
Undecided
8
Undecided
14
-6
Los Angeles/Orange County
Previous Poll
Listening Post
Sept. 21-30, 1972
Change
1,000 Telephone Interviews
October 5-22, 1972
Nixon
61
Nixon
62
-1
McGovern
27
McGovern
22
+5
Undecided
12
Undecided
16
-4
-2-
Iowa Poll (Published 10/22)
476 Telephone Interviews
Previous Poll
October 12-15, 1972
September 22, 1972
Change
Nixon
60
Nixon
64
-4
McGovern
27
McGovern
29
-2
Other
1
Other
1
+0
Undecided
12
Undecided
6
+6
Note: Increase in undecided is probably due to switch from personal
interviews to telephone interviews.
Senate
Miller
51
Clark
31
Undecided
18
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 20, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Teeter Briefing for
Chapin and Parker
After the CRP Waves I, II, and III, Bob Teeter has orally
briefed Chapin and Parker and prepared written materials
to assist in scheduling. Teeter has not discussed the
Rolling Wave materials with Chapin and Parker. The guide-
lines would be the same as with previous briefings - no
discussion of the specific trial heat results.
Recommendation:
That Teeter brief Chapin and Parker regarding the Rolling
Wave polls' effect on scheduling with no discussion of
specific
trial Oklfalf heat results if Tector thinks there may hange. J.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
S Parker 10/23
Cropine Teeter 10/23
ADMINISTRATIVELY COMFIDENTIAL
October 20, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Tester Briefing for
Chapin and Parker
After the CRP Waves I, II, and III, Bob Teeter has orally
briefed Chapin and Farker and prepared written materials
to assist in scheduling. Tester has not discussed the
Rolling Wave materials with Chapin and Parker. The guide-
lines would be the same as with previous briefings 4 no
discussion of the specific trial heat results.
Recommendation:
That Tester brief Chapin and Parker regarding the Belling
Wave polls' effect on scheduling with no discussion of
specific trial heat results.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
GS/jb
Committee for the Re-election of the President
Cluk
MEMORANDUM
October 18, 1972
lagreet agrept
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
noted
FROM:
Tent
as
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Turnout
H
This memo will summarize our data and conclusions as they relate
to turnout and our Get-Out-The-Vote efforts.
I am opposed to any type of mass broad-brush attempt to raise
turnout nationally. I think our "Get-Out-The-Vote" efforts should
be directed only at those who have been identified as Nixon
supporters or as Republicans and at those selected areas where
we will clearly benefit from a higher turnout. The priority pre-
cincts developed by Dan Evans should be used for this purpose.
Both our data and the recent Harris national poll indicate that
our committed vote is at least and in some cases more intense
and likely to vote as McGovern's. In the Harris poll 86% of the
Nixon voters said they will definitely vote compared to 80% of
the McGovern voters. Moreover the two groups who it appears will
turn out at the lowest level are those we are doing our poorest
with -- Blacks 70% and 18-24 year olds 74%.
A national Get-Out-The-Vote effort using the mass media or directed
at all voters would probably have its greatest impact on those who
we are doing poorly with. except in South super & other states
I have seen no data to support the Sindlinger conclusion that a
substantially larger portion of the McGovern voters will actually
vote than of the Nixon voters.
agree
Also it appears that the Nixon voters who are the softest in terms
of their commitment are also those who are the marginal voters in
terms of turnout.
There are two additional reasons for using only a selective "Get-
Out-The-Vote" effort. One is that a large turnout will hurt most
other Republicans who are on the ticket and our chances in close
Senatorial and Congressional races. Disproportionate turnout is
an important factor to Republican victories in many swing congres-
sional and legislative districts. The second reason is less
important but still a factor. It is that most of our and Republican
party workers believe that a large turnout will hurt their local
candidates.
-2-
In summary my recommendation is that our Get-Out-The-Vote effort
should be entirely directed at voters who are identified Nixon
supporters and at Republicans. Where we do not have canvass
information we can identify areas where high turnout will help
us and we can direct our efforts there. We should not use any
type of mass appeal to raise turnout.
This recommendation does not, however, preclude the President from
making a "Good Government" appeal on election eve for everyone to
vote. Such an appeal will probably not affect turnout measurably,
it will expose the President in a positive Presidential light, and
it will show him as confident that if all the people do vote he
will come out the winner.
Committee
for the Re-election
of the President
Date 10/19/72
3:20 PM
TO: H.R. Haldeman
FROM: CLARK MacGREGOR
Please Handle
FYI
File
Hold
To
it
Committee for the Re-election of the President
10/19
MEMORANDUM
October 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RmT
SUBJECT:
Turnout
This memo will summarize our data and conclusions as they relate
to turnout and our Get-Out-The-Vote efforts.
I am opposed to any type of mass broad-brush attempt to raise
turnout nationally. I think our "Get-Out-The-Vote" efforts should
be directed only at those who have been identified as Nixon
supporters or as Republicans and at those selected areas where
we will clearly benefit from a higher turnout. The priority pre-
cincts developed by Dan Evans should be used for this purpose.
Both our data and the recent Harris national poll indicate that
our committed vote is at least and in some cases more intense
and likely to vote as McGovern's. In the Harris poll 86% of the
Nixon voters said they will definitely vote compared to 80% of
the McGovern voters. Moreover the two groups who it appears will
turn out at the lowest level are those we are doing our poorest
with -- Blacks 70% and 18-24 year olds 74%.
A national Get-Out-The-Vote effort using the mass media or directed
at all voters would probably have its greatest impact on those who
we are doing poorly with.
I have seen no data to support the Sindlinger conclusion that a
substantially larger portion of the McGovern voters will actually
vote than of the Nixon voters.
Also it appears that the Nixon voters who are the softest in terms
of their commitment are also those who are the marginal voters in
terms of turnout.
There are two additional reasons for using only a selective "Get-
Out-The-Vote" effort. One is that a large turnout will hurt most
other Republicans who are on the ticket and our chances in close
Senatorial and Congressional races. Disproportionate turnout is
an important factor to Republican victories in many swing congres-
sional and legislative districts. The second reason is less
important but still a factor. It is that most of our and Republican
party workers believe that a large turnout will hurt their local
candidates.
-2-
In summary my recommendation is that our Get-Out-The-Vote effort
should be entirely directed at voters who are identified Nixon
supporters and at Republicans. Where we do not have canvass
information we can identify areas where high turnout will help
us and we can direct our efforts there. We should not use any
type of mass appeal to raise turnout.
This recommendation does not, however, preclude the President from
making a "Good Government" appeal on election eve for everyone to
vote. Such an appeal will probably not affect turnout measurably,
it will expose the President in a positive Presidential light, and
it will show him as confident that if all the people do vote he
will come out the winner.
TO
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
it
10/19
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUM
ADMINISTRATIVE ERKING
October 18, 1972
By EMPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80
E.O. ,12065, Section 6-102
GONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Future Polling
This memorandum will outline our revised polling program for the
period between now and the end of the campaign.
We will continue to do telephone interviewing on the WATS lines
at ORC through this Sunday, October 22. We will then cut off our
daily telephone interviewing on the 22nd. Our schedule for the
remaining phone polls is as follows:
Flash Report
Full Report
Pennsylvania
10/18
10/19
llinois
10/20
10/21
Ohio
10/21
10/23
California
10/23
10/24
New York
10/24
10/25
New Jersey
10/24
10/25
Connecticut
10/24
10/25
We will also begin interviewing Friday, October 19, for personal
interview surveys in New York, California and Pennsylvania. The
ballot data on these studies will be available late Tuesday,
October 24, and the full report and data will be available Wednesday,
October 25. The questionnaire for these personal interview polls
is attached.
This will leave us $9,000 under our original polling budget and
give us the flexibility to do two or three quick panels or telephone
polls over the weekend of the 28th and 29th if we see any movement
or the need arises.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
Hello, I'm Mrs.
from Market Opinion Research, a national research
company with headquarters in Detroit. We are making a study of problems and
political figures in
and would like to have your opinions.
(state name)
1. Are you now registered to vote here in
?
YES (GO TO Q. 2)
1
(state name)
NO (TERMINATE)
2
2. What one thing has been or will be most important in determining how you will
vote for President this fall?
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon
APPROVE
1
is handling the Vietnam situation?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
4. Now, I'm going to hand you a sample election ballot. I would like you to
mark it just as you would if the election were being held today.
Here is another ballot on which you can indicate how strongly you feel
about the candidate you voted for on the sample ballot. Please mark the
position on it that best describes your feelings.
Please put them in the envelope, seal it, and return it to me.
5. In the election this fall will you definitely
DEFINITELY VOTE
1
vote, probably vote, may or may not vote,
PROBABLY VOTE
2
probably not vote, or definitely not vote?
MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
3
DEFINITELY NOT VOTE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
6. Do you think George McGovern or Richard Nixon
GEORGE McGOVERN
1
would do the better job of keeping corruption
RICHARD NIXON
2
and influence peddling out of the Federal
DON'T KNOW
3
Government over the next four years?
7. Senator McGovern has charged that the Nixon
POLITICAL CHARGE BY
administration is one of the most corrupt in
DESPERATE POLITICIAN
1
history. Some people have said that this is
MOST CORRUPT ADMINISTRA-
simply a political charge by a desperate
TION AND NEEDS EXPLAINING 2
politician who is far behind. Others agree
DON'T KNOW,
3
with him and think President Nixon needs to
answer and explain these charges. Which
side do you agree with?
8. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a
REPUBLICAN
1
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or what?
INDEPENDENT
2
DEMOCRAT
3
DON'T KNOW
4
9. In the last general election in which you
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
1
voted, which answer on this card (HAND POL-
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
2
ITICAL CARD) best describes how you voted for
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
state and local offices such as Governor and
REPUBLICANS
3
Senator?
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH PARTIES. 4
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
5
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
6
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
7
NEVER VOTED
8
DON'T KNOW.
9
10. For whom did you vote for President in 1968?
NIXON
1
HUMPHREY
2
WALLACE
3
DIDN'T VOTE
4
Now a few questions for statistical purposes
DON KNOW.
5
11. What is your approximate age? (SHOW AGE CARD)
17-20
01
21-24
02
25-29
03
30-34
04
35-39
05
40-44
06
45-49
07
50-54
08
55-59
09
60-64
10
65 AND OVER
11
REFUSED
12
12. What is the last grade of school you completed?
GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS
(Grades 1-8)
1
SOME HIGH SCHOOL
2
GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL
(Grades 9-12)
3
VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL
SCHOOL
4
SOME COLLEGE
5
GRADUATED COLLEGE
6
POST GRADUATE WORK
7
REFUSED
8
13. What is your religion?
ROMAN CATHOLIC
1
PROTESTANT (eg. Baptist,
Methodist, etc.)
2
JEWISH
3
OTHER (SPECIFY)
4
14. (BY OBSERVATION) RACE:
WHITE
1
NEGRO
2
ORIENTAL
3
SPANISH-AMERICAN
4
OTHER (SPECIFY)
5
15. Are you a labor union member?
YES
1
NO
2
a. (IF "NO" ASK:) Is any member of your
immediate family a union member?
YES
1
NO.
2
16. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
MALE.
1
FEMALE
2
17. (SHOW INCOME CARD) Which classification
0-$2,999
1
includes your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME in
$3,000-$4,999
2
1971 before taxes?
$5,000-$5,999
3
$6,000-$6,999
4
$7,000-$9,000
5
$10,000-$14,999.
6
$15,000-$24,999.
7
$25,000 AND OVER
8
REFUSED
9
October 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
SUBJECT:
Addendum to Tester Memo
Discussion with Tester this morning, October 18, 1972
inflastes the following:
L We have already polled by telephone West
Virginia, New Hampshire, Washington, and
Pennsylvania. Results for all of these should
be in today.
2. Tector has talked to Clark MaeGreger and we
have come up with the following compromise
proposal:
B. Since the telephone lines are contracted
through this weekend, do Illinois, Ohio,
New Jersey, Connecticut, and perhaps Wisconsin
by telephone.
b. De personal Interviews in New York,
Culifornia, and Pennsylvania over the weekend.
By doing these three losy states by personal interview,
we'll get a valid run late in the campaign of what the
situation is with regard to the inflation of the Mixon
chlumn that Tester mentions in his memorandem. We
would be able then to follow-up with additional polling,
either personal interview, panel, or by telephone as
necessary.
Also, this plan would keep us within budget.
Approve
Disapprove
LH:kb
confirming memo
based on L + G + Teeler
conversation w/ sched
LAST DATE
NUMBER OF
TO CHANGE
FLASH
FULL
STATE
INTERVIEWS
QUESTIONNAIRE
REPORT
REPORT
West Virginia
400
(Noon)
10/17
10/19
New Hampshire
400
N/A
10/17
10/19
Washington
400
N/A
10/18
10/20
Pennsylvania
500
N/A
10/18
10/20
Illinois
500
N/A
10/20
10/21
Ohio
500
N/A
10/22
10/24
New Jersey
500
N/A
10/24
10/25
Connecticut
400
N/A
10/24
10/25
New York
500
N/A
10/26
10/27
California
500
N/A
10/26
10/27
Michigan
500
10/20
10/27
10/28
Maryland
400
10/19
10/28
10/30
Wisconsin
400
10/20
10/28
10/30
15t Priority -Cal 1) this wand
10/18
- 2 NY + Pa -
pers + telephone
pers + telephone
2mg Priority (dllo, ohio, 5 OnJ Conn., wise.
Telephone
Just use up telephere.
cut phone on sun.
?s w/maras this
Data - 3 Pers - Late Tues right
To
H
10/18
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT
M.
TEETER
RUST
SUBJECT:
Final Polling
Attached is a schedule for the next series of telephone polls which
would run through October 30. Assuming we continue our phone polling
through November 5, we will spend $24,000 less than our total budget
allocation. If we also do personal interview studies in New York
and California later this week they will cost us an additional $30,000
which would put us about $6,000 over our budget. There are three
alternatives which would keep us within budget:
1. To conduct one personal interview study in either New York or
California and continue with daily polls through November 5.
2. To terminate our telephone interviewing with our current series
on October 30. This would save $15,000 and allow us to do personal
interview studies in both New York and California and still end up
a few thousand under budget.
3. To terminate our telephone interviewing this weekend (October 22),
which would save $30,000. This saving along with the $24,000 remaining
in the budget would allow us to do five personal interview studies
over the weekend. We would then finish about even or just slightly
over budget.
My recommendation is that we terminate the phone interviewing this
Sunday, October 22, and do personal interview studies late this week
in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California. Data
would be available next Tuesday or Wednesday. If any of these states
appear to be sliding or in serious trouble, we would have the option
of doing a quick panel or regular telephone study in that state any
time during the last ten days.
The advantage of this last course of action is that we will have
absolutely reliable data that we are confident to act on during the
last two weeks of the campaign. I do not have this confidence in
the telephone data we have received during the past three weeks.
This problem may be with the weighing of the data or, in fairness
to OKC, in the phone technique itselt. There is some evidence that
in a year when one candidate is far ahead and appears to be an
-2-
obvious landslide, some people are hesitant to tell a telephone
interviewer that they are going to vote for McGovern and may tend
to show a preference for Nixon because it is the socially accepted
position. This may well be the reason that our telephone polls,
the Yankelovich studies and Sindlinger all have consistently shown
larger margins through the Fall than the personal interview studies.
This problem is minimized with the secret ballot technique. Our
test with Michigan over the weekend leads me to believe that this
is at least a portion of the problem. ORC did Michigan on the
telephone at exactly the same time that MOR was doing the Detroit
News Poll: The News poll was a personal interview study which
used an exact duplicate of the Michigan printed ballot with vignette
and straight ballot boxes. It gave us a margin of 13%. Regardless
of how the telephone poll was weighed, it gave us a margin of 23-25%.
Recommendation: That we terminate our telephone interviewing this
Sunday and do personal interview studies with secret ballots in
New York, New Jereey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California beginning
as soon as possible with the data available Tuesday and Wednesday,
the 24th and 25th. If you definitely want to finish under budget
we should cut one of these.
Approved:
Disapproved:
Comment:
Attached is 2. draft of a questionnaire I recommend we use for any
personal interview studies we do. We will have to keep the interview
this short in order for the companies involved to turn it around in
our time limit. We will, of course, include all major state races
on the ballot.
LAST DATE
NUMBER OF
TO CHANGE
FLASH
FULL
STATE
INTERVIEWS
QUESTIONNAIRE
REPORT
REPORT
West Virginia
400
(Noon)
10/17
10/19
New Hampshire
400
N/A
10/17
10/19
Washington
400
N/A
10/18
10/20
Pennsylvania
500
N/A
10/18
10/20
Illinois
500
N/A
10/20
10/21
Ohio
500
N/A
10/22
10/24
New Jersey
500
N/A
10/24
10/25
Connecticut
400
N/A
10/24
10/25
New York
500
N/A
10/26
10/27
California
500
N/A
10/26
10/27
Michigan
500
10/20
10/27
10/28
Maryland
400
10/19
10/28
10/30
Wisconsin
400
10/20
10/28
10/30
Hello, I'm Mrs.
from Market Opinion Research, a national research
company with headquarters in Detroit. We are making a study of problems and
political figures in
and would like to have your cpinions.
(state name)
1. Are you now registered to vote here in
?
YES (GO TO Q. 2)
1
(state name)
NO (GO TO Q.la)
2
a.
Do you intend to register so you will be able to vote in the 1972
Presidential election?
YES (CO TO Q. 2)
1
NO
(TERMINATE)
2
What do you think are the most important problems facing the United States
as a nation at this time? (PROBE)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard
APPROVE
1
Nixon is handling his job as President?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO JPINION
3
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President
APPROVE
1
Nixon is handling the Vietnam situation?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon
APPROVE
1
is dealing with the economic conditions in this country?
DISAPPROVE
2
NO OPINION
3
INTERVIEWER: ROTATE THE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK QUESTIONS 3 AND 9.
How would you rate Richard Nixon in terms of his ability
VERY ABLE
1
to handle the job of President -- very able, fairly able,
FAIRLY ABLE
2
not very able, not at all able?
NOT VERY ABLE
3
NOT AT ALL ABLE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
How would you rate George McCovern in terms of his ability
VERY ABLE
1
to handle the job of President -- very able, fairly able,
FAIRLY ABLE
2
not very able, not at all able?
NOT VERY ABLE
3
NOT AT ALL ABLE
4
DON'T KNOW
5
8. Now, I'm going to hand you a sample election ballet. I would like you to
mark it just as you would if the election were being held today.
Here is another ballot on which you can indicate how strongly you feel about
the candidate you voted for on the sample ballot. Please mark the position
on it that best describes your feelings.
Please put them in the envelope, seal it, and return it to me.
9. In the election this fall will you definitely vote,
DEFINITELY VOTE
1
probably vote, may or may not vote, probably not
PROBABLY VOTE
2
vote, or definitely not vote?
MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
3
DEFINITELY NOT VCTE
4
DON'T KNOW.
5
10.
How serious of a problem do you think corruption
VERY SERIOUS
1
is in the federal government -- very serious,
FAIRLY SERIOUS
2
fairly serious, not very serious or not at all
NOT VERY SERIOUS
3
serious?
NOT AT ALL SERIOUS
4
DON'T KNOW
5
L.
Are there any recent examples of corruption or
influence peddling that you can think of and
that concern you and what are they?
(IF "SPECIFIC ANSWER," ASK:)
11a. Will this make you more likely to vote
MORE LIKELY VOTE NIXON
1
for Richard Nikon, more likely CO vote
MORE LIKELY VOTE McCOVERN
2
for George McGovern or not make any
NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
3
difference to you when you vote this Fall?
DON'T KNOW
4
12. Do you think George McGovern or Richard Nixon
GEORGE McGCVERN
1
would do the better job of keeping corruption
RICHARD NIXON
2
and influence peddling out of the Federal
DON'T KNOW
3
Government over the next four years?
13. Senator McGovern has charged that the Nixon
POLITICAL CHARGE BY
administration is one of the most corrupt in
DESPERATE POLITICIAN
1
Matory. Some people have said that this is
MOST CORRUPT ADMINISTRATION
simply a political charge by a desperate
AND NEEDS EXPLAINING
2
politician who is far behind. Others agree
DON'T KNOW
3
with him and think President NIA M needs to
answer and explain these charges. Which side
do you agree with?
-2-
I.
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a
REPUBLICAN
1
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or what?
INDEPENDENT
2
DEMOCRAT
3
DON'T KNOW
4
II. In the last general election in which you voted,
STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC
1
which answer on this card (HAND POLITICAL CARD)
MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC
2
best describes how you voted for state and local
A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS
offices such as Governor and Senator?
THAN REPUBLICANS
3
ABOUT EQUALLY FOR
BOTH PARTIES
1-
A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
5
MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
6
STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
7
NEVER VOTED
8
DON'T KNOW
9
III. For whom did you vote for President in 1968?
NIXON
1
HUMPHREY
2
WALLACE
3
DIDN'T VOTE
4
Now a few questions for statistical purposes
DON'T KNOW
5
IV. What is your approximate age? (SHOW AGE CARD)
17-20
01
21-24
02
25-29
03
30-34
04
35-39
05
40-44
06
45-49
07
50-54
08
55-59
09
60-64
10
65 AND OVER
11
REFUSED
12
V.
What is the last grade of school you completed?
GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS
(Grades 1-8)
1
SOME HIGH SCHOOL
2
GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL
(Grades 9-12)
3
VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL
SCHOOL
4
SOME COLLEGE
5
GRADUATED COLLEGE
6
POST GRADUATE WORK
7
REFUSED
8
VI. What is your religion?
ROMAN CATHOLIC
1
PROTESTANT (eg. Baptist,
Methodist, etc.)
2
JEWISH
3
OTHER (SPECIFY)
4
VII. (BY OBSERVATION) RACE:
WHITE
1
NEGRO
2
ORIENTAL
3
SPANISH-AMERICAN
-T
od
OTHER (SPECIFY)
5
VIII. Are you a labor union member
YES
1
NO
2
a. (IF "NO" ASK:) Is any member of your immediate
YES
1
family a union member.
NO
2
XI. (BY OBSERVATION) Sex:
MALE
1
FEMALE
2
XII. (SHOW INCOME CARD) Which classification includes
0-$2,999
1
your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME in 1971 before taxes?
$3,000-$4.999
2
$5,000-$5,999
3
$6,000-$6,999
1.
$7,000-$9,999
5
$10,000-$14,999
is
$15,000-$24,999
- 3
$25,000 AND OVER
3
REFUSED
9
-Stop - phone polling Sun
save 30 of 85
- -Under budget 25
- -Go in field - 10/19- -
5 sts - cal, nY Pa,
nJ, all Sending ?'s
in dun phone poll
Data -10/20/-25
Fuldstent to Data -6 days.
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Scution 6-102
MEMORAND
5-22-80 October 12, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Future Polling
ORC will complete interviewing on California and New York tonight.
Per your instructions yesterday we will do Michigan, West Virginia,
Washington and New Hampshire beginning tomorrow which will carry
us through the weekend. We will cover the major statewide races
in all 'of these states.
Our interviewing has begun on Michigan and West Virginia. We have
dropped the corruption questions as the data we received from seven states
stabilized and there is no reason to believe it, would be different
in the next group of states. We have added questions on McGovern's
Vietnam statement and bussing in Michigan. We will add questions
on the economy in our Washington study.
We also should begin to consider what we want to do next week.
There are three basic options:
1. Do another series of priority state polls. Even though these
states have not shown any significant movement, they are the
key to the election and the ones where McGovern is concentrating
almost all of his effort. This means we would begin a series
Monday or Tuesday consisting of Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio,
New Jersey, California, New York and Michigan This order
would space all of them 8 to 10 days from when they were done
previously.
Wisconson - Conn - md
2. Do the states where we are interested in the Senate race but
do not have any reliable data. This would include Montana,
#3
North Carolina, Georgia and possibly Alabama, Virginia and
New Mexico.
3. Do polls in several local areas which have concentrations of
specific voting groups. This would give us data on some of
NO
the demographic groups that are important to us in key states
-2-
We would do entire political jurisdictions so we could compare the
results to previous election data. Among the areas we would con-
sider doing --
Massachusetts - Worchester/Framingham
Somerville
New York
- Rooney's Congressional District (Brooklyn Jewish)
Long Beach (Long Island Jewish)
Buffalo (Catholic)
Yonkers (Italian)
New Jersey
- Passaic
Jersey City
Morristown
Pennsylvania
-
Philadelphia
Allegheny County
Washington County
Wilkes-Barre
Ohio
- Toledo
Minshall's Congressional District
(Suburban Cuyahoga County)
Akron
Youngstown
Illinois
- Suburban Cook County
Moline
Evanston
California
- Contra Costa County
San Jose
Hayward
Fresno
Torrance or Burbank
Recommendation: That we do another series of phone polls in the
seven large priority states.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment:
Also as I have discussed with you previously last night I am concerned
that our margins in the phone data we are getting from ORC are some-
what inflated. I can't prove this but my instinct and experience in
these states is at least 3-5 points higher than it should be. MOR is
doing a personal interview poll in Michigan for the Detroit News this
week which should tell us whether or not this is a problem, and if
so, to what degree it is a problem.
-3-
Regardless of this problem I think we should do two or three personal
interview studies in the key states next week. In the interest of
caution, I think we should have some personal interview data going
into the last two weeks of the campaign. There is no question but
what personal interview polls with secret sample ballots are more
reliable than phone interviewing at its best.
Recommendation: That we do fast personal interview sample ballot
studies in New York, California and Pennsylvania next week. (We
would then eliminate these three states from our series of telephone
polls.)
Approve
Disapprove
Comment:
CONF IDENTIAL
JSM - plan on Conn spe prome
- -meet utcac + OC. faH.
BT- mon OK It to revero
certains u/p
H
10/14
utene polling
1) OK - another and 70 Pur Sts
mia
adel Wise conn + me
Teeter
(z) 3 Forget polls in leeal areas
Teeter TO
Pers inter. in ny, Calt
Pa - -OK.
10/16
- Interesting Sen Roces - -OK,
but 3rd after other cplted
- need sched of order
L elsor re Gallup.
Yark. 57/27-16
11-66-33
Oct1-6 G-100 -34-6
Committee
TO
for the Re-election
of the President
It
10/4
Date 10/4/72
TO: H.R. Haldeman
FROM: CLARK MacGREGOR cm
Please Handle
FYI
File
Hold
As requested -
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 3, 1972
By
cmpoise
5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER RUT
SUBJECT:
Gallup and Harris Sample and Filter
Procedures
Gordon Strachan asked me to check on the sample and filtering
procedure for the Gallup and Harris surveys and if they have
changed them as we get closer to the election.
Gallup's primary sample unites are based on a universe of all
adult citizens 18 years of age and over. He then filters for
registered voters and interviews only registered voters for his
political surveys. His head to head data is collected by using
the oral question and a leaner follow up for the undecided. His
published results are a combination of these.
He does not cut his data by likely voters or turnout.
He has not varied these procedures at all throughout this year
but may report both likely voters and all voters in his last
one or two polls which will both be done after October 15.
Harris interviews only what he considers likely voters. In order
to qualify as a likely voter a respondent must have voted in 1968-70,
be registered to vote in 1972 or be between 18-24 years of age.
He also included leaners in his published data and has not yet
weighed for probably turnout but will closer to the election.
Harris says he has not varied this technique throughout this year.
October 16, 1972
2:50 p.m. P.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
RON ZIEGIER
FROM:
DWIGHT L. CHAPIN
Obvicusly the trip to New York C2 the 23rd of October is
a political trip, as is the trip to Chio on the 20%.
CC: Bruce Kehrl i
Rolling Mave Schedule
1) Mich.- - 10/12-12
Polling Dates
Results
10/14-Tre
check
Heats
Teeta
2) W. Va - 10/12-15
10/18
3) Wash-
"
ci) N.H. -
"
ORC te type results + delay 2 days
CRP ROLLING WAVE SURVEY SCHEDULE
STATE
POLLING DATES
DATA DELIVERY
Ill.
10/5-6
10/9
Md.
10/4-5
10/6
Ohio
10/7-10
10/12
N.J.
10/7-10
10/12
Minn.
10/7-10
10/12
N.Y:
10/9-10
10/12
Cal.
10/9-10
10/12
ORC PRIVATE NATIONAL SURVEY SCHEDULE
SURVEY
POLLING DATES
DATA DELIVERY
National Survey #2
10/6-8
10/9
National Survey #3
10/13-15
10/16
National Survey #4
10/20-22
10/23
National Survey #5
10/27-29
10/30
National Survey #6
11/3-5
11/6
Committee for the Re-election of the President
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUMMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 12, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By.EmPrise , Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
California Telephone Poll
Attached are the summary tables from the California telephone poll.
This is the second telephone poll ORC has done in California and
should be comparable to the first. This data would indicate that
our support in California has declined slightly during the last
two weeks although the change in margin is barely more than the
standard error for the sample. This decline appears to be with
low and working class Democrats and Ticket-Splitters. There is
no geographic pattern to it.
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
California
October 9-11, 1972
519 Interviews
1968: +4
Trial Heats
Change from
McGovern
Margin Phone Poll
Without Leaners
51
30
19
(-5)
(-1).
(+ 6)
With Leaners
54
35
11
+19
-5
(-4)
(+ 1)
(+ 3)
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
94 (+ 1)
59 (-11)
27 (- 3)
McGovern
(With Leaners)
2 (+ 0)
27 (+ 3)
59 (+ 1)
Undecided
4 (- 1)
14 (+ 8)
14 (+ 2)
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
55 (- 1)
35 (- 1)
10 (+ 2)
Vietnam
53 (+ 1)
38 (- 1)
9 (+ 0)
Economy
43 (- 3)
42 (- 3)
15 (+ 6)
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
55 (+ 3)
Unemployment
13 (- 3)
Poverty/Welfare
12 (+ 0)
Economy
11 (- 7)
Inflation
11 (+ 1)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
39 (- 4)
69 (- 5)
41 (- 7)
21 (+ 0)
Fairly Able
37 (+ 2)
25 (+ 1)
41 (+ 2)
40 (- 2)
Not Very Able
11 (- 1)
2 (+ 2)
9 (+ 1)
16 (- 5)
Not at all Able
9 (+ 0)
1 (- 1)
4 (- 1)
18 (+ 3)
Don't Know
4 (+ 3)
3 (+ 3)
5 (+ 5)
5 (+ 4)
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
12 (- 3)
4 (+ 1)
8 (- 1)
19 (- 5)
Fairly Able
26 (- 3)
8 (- 1)
27 (- 2)
37 (+ 0)
Not Very Able
18 (- 2)
30 (- 1)
19 (- 4)
10 (- 3)
Not at all Able
26 (+ 1)
50 (+ 0)
27 (+ 1)
12 (- 3)
Don't Know
18 (+ 7)
8 (+ 1)
19 (+ 6).
22 (+11)
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
84 (+ 2)
73 (+ 1)
Probably Vote but still thinking
8 (+ 0)
13 (- 2)
Undecided but Lean Toward
5 (- 4)
12 (- 1)
Don't Know
3 (+ 2)
2 (+ 2)
:
California
October 9-11, 1972
519 Interviews
A-1
V-2
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
54 (- 4)
35 (+ 1)
11 (+ 3)
+19 (- 5)
519
Age
18-24 years
45 (+ 5)
51 (- 6)
4 (+ 1)
- 6 (+11)
77
25-34 years
49 (-13)
44 (+12)
7 (+ 1)
+5 (-25)
117
35-44 years
61 (+ 2)
29 (- 1)
10 (- 1)
+32 (+ 3)
93
45-54 years
55 (- 9)
26 (- 3)
19 (+12)
+29 (- 6)
100
55-64 years
63 (+ 1)
27 (- 3)
10 (+ 2)
+36 (+ 4)
65
65 years +
56 (-9)
31 (+ 9)
13 (+ 0)
+25 (-18)
63
Education
Less than high school
41 (- 5)
44 (+ 4)
15 (+ 1)
- 3 (- 9)
91
High school graduate
57 (-1)
33 (- 1)
10 (+ 2)
+24 (+ 0)
156
College
57 (-7)
33 (+ 3)
10 (+ 4)
+24 (-10)
270
Religion
Catholic
49 (- 6)
41 (+ 3)
10 (+ 3)
+8 (- 9)
131
Protestant
60 (- 4)
27 (- 2)
13 (+ 6)
+33 (- 2)
246
Jewish
53 (+ 3)
26 (-24)
21 (+21)
+27 (+27)
15
Union
Yes
47 (+ 1)
40 (- 3)
13 (+ 2)
+7 (+ 4)
185
No
59 (- 9)
31 (+ 5)
10 (+ 4)
+28 (-14)
319
Income
Under $5,000
40 (+ 3)
44 (- 7)
16 (+ 4)
- 4 (+10)
74
$5,000-$9,999
43 (-11)
45 (+ 7)
12 (+ 4)
- 2 (-18)
135
$10,000-$14,999
61 (- 2)
30 (+ 0)
9 (+ 2)
+31 (- 2)
131
$15,000 +
66 (- 7)
26 (+ 1)
8 (+ 6)
+40 (- 8)
129
Sex
Male
56 (- 1)
37 (+ 0)
7 (+ 1)
+19 (- 1)
254
Female
53 (-7)
32 (+ 1)
15 (+ 6)
+21 (- 8)
265
Turnout
Definitely vote
56 (- 5)
34 (+ 1)
10 (+ 4)
+22 (- 6)
476
Probably vote
42 (+12)
46 (+ 1)
12 (-13)
- 4 (+11)
25
May or may not vote
9 (-58)
43 (+43)
48 (+15)
X
13
Probably not vote
0 (+ 0)
0 (-33)
100 (+33)
X
1
Definitely not vote
34 (+34)
34 (-16)
32 (-18)
X
3
Geographic (Political)
Shasta/Sonoma
71 (+21)
20 (-30)
9 (+ 9)
X
11
Alameda/Contra Costa/
San Francisco/San Mateo/
Santa Clara
44 (- 5)
43 (+ 0)
13 (+ 5)
+1 (- 5)
117
Sacramento/San Joaquin/
Tulare
67 (+25)
33 (-25)
0 (+ 0)
+34 (+52)
31
Monterey/Santa Barbara
89 (-11)
11 (+11)
0 (+ 0)
X
10
40
Los Angeles
53 (- 7)
34 (+ 1)
13 (+ 6)
+19 (- 8)
219
Orange/Riverside/San
Bernadino/San Diego
59 (- 5)
31 (+ 7)
10 (- 2)
+28 (-12)
83
Geographic (ADI)
Bakersfield
88 (+17)
12 (+12)
0 (-29)
+76 (+ 5)
10
Chico-Redding
62 (- 6)
22 (+ 1)
16 (+ 5)
+40 (- 7)
19
E1 Centro
39 (- 4)
61 (+18)
0 (-14)
X
5
Fresno
54 (+ 1)
41 (+ 0)
5 (- 1)
+13 (+ 1)
20
Los Angeles
53 (-7)
34 (+ 3)
13 (+ 4)
+19 (-10)
273
Palm Springs
34 (-10)
.44 (-12)
22 (+22)
X
14
Sacramento-Stockton
61 (+10)
31 (-14)
8 (+ 4)
+30 (+24)
34
San Diego
67 (-1)
30 5)
3 (- 4)
+37 (- 6)
29
San Francisco
45 (- 7)
41 (+ 0)
14 (+ 7)
+4 (-7)
124
Santa Barbara/Santa
89 (-11)
11 (+11)
0 (+ 0)
X
10
Maria
California
October 9-11, 1972
519 Interviews
B-1
2
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
55 (- 1)
35 (- 1)
10 (+ 2)
Age
18-24 years
44 (- 1)
48 (- 3)
8 (+ 4)
25-34 years
49 (-11)
41 (+ 9)
10 (- 2)
35-44 years
65 (+ 5)
26 (- 7)
9 (+ 2)
45-54 years
58 (+ 2)
29 (- 8)
13 (+ 6)
55-64 years
55 (+ 2)
32 (- 4)
13 (+ 2)
65 years +
57 (- 6)
35 (+ 8)
8 (- 2)
Education
Less than high school
43 (- 3)
43 (+ 2)
14 (+ 1)
High school graduate
48 (- 5)
42 (+ 5)
10 (+ 0)
College
59 (- 3)
30 (- 3)
11 (+ 6)
Religion
Catholic
53 (- 7)
37 (+ 2)
10 (+ 5)
Protestant
61 (+ 0)
30 (- 1)
9 (+ 1)
Jewish
32 (- 1)
40 (-23)
28 (+24)
Union
Yes
47 (+ 1)
41 (- 3)
12 (+ 2)
No
59 (- 5)
31 (+ 2)
10 (+ 3)
Income
Under $5,000
43 (+ 1)
43 (-10)
14 (+ 9)
$5,000-$9,999
48 (-11)
42 (+ 6)
10 (+ 5)
$10,000-$14,999
59 (+ 1)
30 (- 3)
11 (+ 2)
$15,000 +
61 (- 3)
30 (- 1)
9 (+ 4)
Sex
Male
54 (- 2)
36 (- 1)
10 (+ 3)
Female
55 (- 3)
35 (+ 1)
10 (+ 2)
Turnout
Definitely vote
56 (- 1)
34 (- 2)
10 (+ 3)
Probably vote
50 (- 5)
46 (+16)
4 (-11)
May or may not vote
24 (- 9)
54 (+21)
22 (-12)
Probably not vote
0
X
100
X
0
X
Definitely not vote
0
X
100
X
0
X
Geographic (Political)
Shasta/Sonoma
36 (+ 3)
19 (-31)
45 (+28)
Alameda/Contra Costa/
San Francisco/San Mateo/
Santa Clara
47 (- 2)
46 (+ 6)
7 (- 4)
Sacramento/San Joaquin/
Tulare
66 (+22)
21 (-29)
13 (+ 7)
Monterey/Santa Barbara
79 (-21)
21 (+21)
0 (+ 0)
Los Angeles
56 (+ 2)
33 (- 5)
11 (+ 3)
Orange/Riverside/San
Bernadino/San Diego
56 (-10)
33 (+ 4)
11 (+ 6)
Geographic (ADI)
Bakersfield
88 (+59)
12 (- 2)
0 (-57)
Chico-Redding
47 (-22)
28 (+ 2)
25 (+20)
E1 Centro
39 (-18)
61 (+32)
0 (-14)
Fresno
74 (+ 9)
16 (-19)
10 (+10)
Los Angeles
56 (+ 0)
34 (- 3)
10 (+ 3)
Palm Springs
53 (+ 9)
32 (-13)
15 (+ 4)
Sacramento-Stockton
49 (- 8)
36 (- 3)
15 (+11)
San Diego
61 (- 5)
26 (- 6)
13 (+11)
San Francisco
45 (- 7)
47 (+ 9)
8 (- 2)
Santa Barbara/Santa Maria
79 (-21)
21 (+21)
0 (+ 0)
California
October 9-11, 1972
519 Interviews
C-1
77
2
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
30
23
30
31
25
37
34
Vietnam
54
47
50
59
52
61
43
Inflation
41
43
39
40
42
38
37
Unemployment
33
42
26
42
29
37
39
Crime
38
40
37
36
40
33
44
Drugs
34
35
34
31
36
30
33
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
How serious is corruption -
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
42
26
39
53
27
62
60
Fairly serious
29
35
28
25
33
24
20
Not very serious
20
31
21
13
30
7
7
Not at all serious
1
1
2
1
2
1
0
No Opinion
8
7
10
8
8
6
13
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Recent examples of corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
None
63
72
66
54
70
53
60
Watergate
14
8
14
20
9
23
11
Wheat/Grain Deal
6
2
6
8
5
8
4
ITT
3
1
3
6
1
7
2
(519)
(111)
(155)
(196)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Effect of corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
More likely vote Nixon
9
26
8
1
19
0
6
More likely vote McG.
38
4
31
57
6
72
27
Not make any difference
42
66
48
30
64
23
31
Don't Know
11
4
13
12
11
5
36
(170)
(27)
(48)
(70)
(76)
(77)
(17)
Specific Examples --
Wheat/
Watergate
Grain Deal
ITT
More likely vote Nixon
4
3
0
More likely vote McGovern
51
48
62
Not make any difference
36
39
38
Don't Know
9
10
0
:
(70)
(28)
(17)
Best job of eliminating corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
35
73
37
13
62
2
8
McGovern
29
6
20
47
6
73
6
Don't Know
36
21
43
40
32
25
86
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
.
California
October 9-11, 1972
519 Interviews
C-2
ISSUES
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
46
18
42
64
23
79
54
Neither A/D
6
6
4
6
5
5
13
Disagree
48
76
54
30
72
16
33
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
57
24
50
80
33
88
72
Neither A/D
11
13
14
9
14
5
20
Disagree
32
63
36
11
53
7
8
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
18
1
13
30
2
43
14
Neither A/D
12
5
7
17
6
18
22
Disagree
70
94
80
53
92
39
64
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse
Nixon
McGovern
Und
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
70
76
79
57
83
49
71
Neither A/D
10
7
7
16
6
17
10
Disagree
20
17
14
27
11
34
19
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge -
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Desperate political
charge
51
83
56
29
76
18
28
Explain corruption
34
5
29
56
11
69
38
No opinion
15
12
15
15
13
13
34
(519)
(111)
(155)
(169)
(284)
(178)
(57)
-
much
began
Griffin
10/11-530
- willadd
Phone Number:
(
)
Area Code Number
Busing
TIME INTERVIEW STARTED:
OPINION SURVEY
I'm
,
and I'm working on a survey about problems and
political figures in the country being made for Opinion Research Corporation of
Princeton, New Jersey. I'd like very much to have your opinion.
1.
Are you registered to vote in the
1 YES
IF "YES," CONTINUE INTERVIEW
Presidential election in 1972?
2 NO
IF "NO," TERMINATE INTERVIEW
2.
What do you think are the most important problems facing the United States
as a nation at this time?
3.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
Richard Nixon is handling his job as
2 DISAPPROVE
President?
3 NO OPINION
4.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
President Nixon is handling the Vietnam
2 DISAPPROVE
situation?
3 NO OPINION
5.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
President Nixon is dealing with the
2 DISAPPROVE
economic conditions in this country?
3 NO OPINION
INTERVIEWER: ROTATE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK QUESTIONS 6 AND 7.
6.
How would you rate Richard Nixon in terms
1 VERY ABLE
of his ability to handle the job of
2 FAIRLY ABLE
President -- very able, fairly able, not
3 NOT VERY ABLE
very able, not at all able?
4 NOT AT ALL ABLE
5 DON'T KNOW
7.
How would you rate George McGovern in terms
1 VERY ABLE
of his ability to handle the job of
2 FAIRLY ABLE
President -- very able, fairly able, not
3 NOT VERY ABLE.
very able, not at all able?
4 NOT AT ALL ABLE
5 DON'T KNOW
--2
8.
If the election for President were held
1 RICHARD NIXON
today, would you be voting for Richard
2 GEORGE McGOVERN
Nixon, the Republican; or George McGovern,
3 UNDECIDED
GO TO 8b
the Denocrat?
IF "NIXON" OR "McGOVERN" ON Q. 8, ASK:
8a. As of today will you definitely vote
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
,
probably vote
2 PROBABLY VOTE
but still thinking about it, or are you
BUT STILL THINKING ABOUT IT
undecided but leaning toward
?
3 UNDECIDED BUT LEANING
TOWARD
4 NO ANSWER
IF "UNDECIDED" ON Q. 8, ASK:
8b. As of today, do you lean toward
1 McGOVERN
McGovern or Nixon?
2 NIXON
3 UNDECIDED
9. In the election this Fall will you
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
definitely vote, probably vote, may
2 PROBABLY VOTE
or may not vote, probably not vote,
3 MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
or definitely not vote?
4 PROBABLY NOT VOTE
5 DEFINITELY NOT VOTE
6 DON'T KNOW
10. Did you see Senator McGovern's Vietnam
statement on television Tuesday evening?
1 YES - SAW STATEMENT
2 NO - DID NOT SEE STATEMENT
IF YES ON Q. 10 ASK:
10a. Was your general impression favorable
or unfavorable?
1 FAVORABLE
2 UNFAVORABLE
3 NEITHER
10b.Why?
4 NO OPINION
10c. Do you think Senator McGovern's plan for
ending the Vietnam war will or will not work?
1 WILL WORK
2 WILL NOT WORK
11. Do you think that the McGovern plan or the Nixon
plan will be the most likely to end the war in
Vietnam?
1 McGOVERN PLAN
2 NIXON PLAN
3 NEITHER
4 DON'T KNOW/NO OPINION
:
12.
Do you think that the Nixon plan or the McGovern
plan will be cost likely to get our prisoners
home the soonest?
1 NIXON PLAN
2. McGOVERN PLAN
3 NEITHER
4 DON'T KNOW/NO OPINION
12-1/2. What do you think are the main differences between
the Nixon Plan and the McGovern Plan?
13. In the last general election in which you
1 STRAIGHT DEMOCRAT
--3
voted, which answer best describes how you
2 MOSTLY DEMOCRAT
voted for state and local offices such as
3 A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN
Governor and Senator? (READ CHOICES TO
REPUBLICANS
RESPONDENT.)
4 ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH PARTIES
5 A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS
THAN DEMOCRATS
6 MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
7 STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
8 NEVER VOTED
9 DON'T KNOW
14.
What is your age?
1 17-20 YEARS
7 45-49 YEARS
2 21-24 YEARS
8 50-54 YEARS
3 25-29 YEARS
9 55-59 YEARS
4 30-34 YEARS
10 60-64 YEARS
5 35-39 YEARS
11 65 AND OVER
6 40-44 YEARS
12 REFUSED
15.
What is the last grade of school
you completed?
1 GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS (GRADES 1-8)
2 SOME HIGH SCHOOL
3 GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL (GRADE 12)
4 VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL SCHOOL
5 SOME COLLEGE
6 GRADUATE COLLEGE
7 POST GRADUATE WORK
8 REFUSED
16.
What is your religion?
1 ROMAN CATHOLIC
2 PROTESTANT
3 JEWISH
4 OTHER (Specify)
17.
Are you a labor union member?
1 YES
2 NO
IF "NO" ON Q. 17, ASK:
17a. Is any member of your immediate
1 YES
family a union member?
2 NO
18.
Which classification included your
1 0-$2,999
TOTAL FAMILY INCOME IN 1971 before
2 $3,000-$4,999
taxes? (READ CHOICES TO RESPONDENT.)
3 $5,000-$5,999
4 $6,000-$6,999
5 $7,000-$9,999
6 $10,000-$14,999
7 $15,000-$24,999
8 $25,000 AND OVER
9 REFUSED
1
19.
Sex:
1 MALE
2 FEMALE
20.
What county do you live in?
Time Ended:
Length:
Loc. #:
Region#:
Interviewer:
Date:
To
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
H,0113
DETERM
TO
BE
AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUm
E.O. 12065, Section 5-22-80 6-102
By
Emprise
NARS,
Date
October 12, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Future Polling
ORC will complete interviewing on California and New York tonight.
Per your instructions yesterday we will do Michigan, West Virginia,
Washington and New Hampshire beginning tomorrow which will carry
us through the weekend. We will cover the major statewide races
in all of these states.
Our interviewing has begun on Michigan and West Virginia. We have
dropped the corruption questions as the data we received from seven states
stabilized and there is no reason to believe it would be different
in the next group of states. We have added questions on McGovern's
Vietnam statement and bussing in Michigan. We will add questions
on the economy in our Washington study.
We also should begin to consider what we want to do next week.
There are three basic options:
1. Do another series of priority state polls. Even though these
states have not shown any significant movement, they are the
key to the election and the ones where McGovern is concentrating
almost all of his effort. This means we would begin a series
Monday or Tuesday consisting of Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio,
New Jersey, California, New York and Michigan. This order
would space all of them 8 to 10 days from when they were done
previously.
2. Do the states where we are interested in the Senate race but
do not have any reliable data. This would include Montana,
North Carolina, Georgia and possibly Alabama, Virginia and
New Mexico.
3. Do polls in several local areas which have concentrations of
specific voting groups. This would give us data on some of
the demographic groups that are important to us in key states.
-2-
We would do entire political jurisdictions so we could compare the
results to previous election data. Among the areas we would con-
sider doing --
Massachusetts - Worchester/Framingham
Somerville
New York
- Rooney's Congressional District (Brooklyn Jewish)
Long Beach (Long Island Jewish)
Buffalo (Catholic)
Yonkers (Italian)
New Jersey
- Passaic
Jersey City
Morristown
Pennsylvania
-
Philadelphia
Allegheny County
Washington County
Wilkes-Barre
Ohio
- Toledo
Minshall's Congressional District
(Suburban Cuyahoga County)
Akron
Youngstown
Illinois
- Suburban Cook County
Moline
Evanston
California
- Contra Costa County
San Jose
Hayward
Fresno
Torrance or Burbank
Recommendation:
That we do another series of phone polls in the
seven large priority states.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment:
Also as I have discussed with you previously last night I am concerned
that our margins in the phone data we are getting from ORC are some-
what inflated. I can't prove this but my instinct and experience in
these states is at least 3-5 points higher than it should be. MOR is
doing a personal interview poll in Michigan for the Detroit News this
week which should tell us whether or not this is a problem, and if
so, to what degree it is a problem.
-3-
Regardless of this problem I think we should do two or three personal
interview studies in the key states next week. In the interest of
caution, I think we should have some personal interview data going
into the last two weeks of the campaign. There is no question but
what personal interview polls with secret sample ballots are more
reliable than phone interviewing at its best.
Recommendation: That we do fast personal interview sample ballot
studies in New York, California and Pennsylvania next week. (We
would then eliminate these three states from our series of telephone
polls.)
Approve
Disapprove
Comment:
CONFIDENTIAL
To
I
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
10/10
MEMORANDUM
October 10, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
New Jersey Phone Poll
Preliminary trial heats on New Jersey are as follows:
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Without leaners
54
27
19
With leaners
58
33
9
Change from Wave III
(-4)
(+ 2)
(+ 1)
Senate
Case
Krebs
Undecided
With leaners
53
28
19
551 Interviews
October 6-9, 1972
Illinois
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave
October 6-9, 1972
500 Interviews
1968: +4
Trial Heats
McGovern
Without Leaners
58
23
19
With Leaners
62
27
11
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
92
66
41
McGovern
(With Leaners)
6
22
45
Undecided
2
12
14
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
63
28
9
Vietnam
60
31
9
Economy
45
40
15
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
54
(-1)
Economy
14
(+2)
Unemployment
13
(-3)
Inflation
13 (-7)
Crime
11 (-8)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
48
72
47
33
Fairly Able
35
26
37
41
Not Very Able
10
2
9
15
Not at all Able
5
0
6
8
Don't Know
2
0
1
3
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
9
2
6
18
Fairly Able
26
16
29
32
Not Very Able
22
27
22
16
Not at all Able
26
44
26
17
Don't Know
17
11
17
17
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
80
68
Probably Vote but still thinking
9
14
Undecided but Lean Toward
9
16
Don't Know
2
2
State Ballots
Senate
Governor
CHARLES H. PERCY
60
RICHARD OGILVIE
49
Roman C. Pucinski
27
Daniel Walker
42
Undecided
13
Undecided
9
Illinois
October 6-9, 1972
500 Interviews
A-1
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total - 100%
62%
27%
11%
+35%
500
Age
18-24 years
52
44
4
+8
50
25-34 years
57
37
6
+20
91
35-44 years
65
24
11
+41
113
45-54 years
61
25
14
+36
96
55-64 years
67
18
15
+49
70
65 years +
68
21
11
+47
72
Education
Less than high school
59
28
13
+31
114
High school graduate
66
24
10
+42
170
College
62
29
9
+33
213
Religion
Catholic
55
13
32
+42
176
Protestant
69
22
9
+47
240
Jewish
59
36
5
+23
17
Union
Yes
59
28
13
+31
195
No
65
26
9
+39
292
Income
Under $5,000
49
38
13
+11
53
$5,000-$9,999
60
31
9
+29
123
$10,000-$14,999
68
23
9
+45
124
$15,000 +
66
25
9
+41
133
Sex
Male
62
27
11
+35
240
Female
62
27
11
+35
260
Turnout
Definitely vote
64
26
10
+38
453
Probably vote
48
36
16
+12
33
May or may not vote
58
29
13
+29
7
Probably not vote
43
57
0
-14
4
Definitely not vote
0
100
0
X
1
Geographic (Political)
Chicago City
55
34
11
+21
124
Cook County Outside Chgo.
66
23
11
+43
119
St. Clair & Madison Cty.
60
34
6
+26
28
22nd Congressional Dist.
73
23
4
+50
35
All Other
65
23
12
+42
194
Geographic (ADI)
Davenport-Rock Island-
Moline-Rockford
66
21
13
+45
38
St. Louis
64
29
7
+35
45
Springfield-Decatur-
Champaign/Peoria/Paducah-
Cape Giradeau-Harrisburg/
Evansville/Terre Haute/
Quincy/Hannibal
63
24
13
+39
88
Chicago
62
28
10
+34
329
Illinois
October 6-9, 1972
500 Interviews
B-1
V-2
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total - 100%
63%
28%
9%
Age
18-24 years
48
40
12
25-34 years
54
35
11
35-44 years
70
24
6
45-54 years
59
28
13
55-64 years
73
25
2
65 years +
65
19
16
Education
Less than high school
64
26
10
High school graduate
64
27
9
College
62
29
9
Religion
Catholic
55
36
9
Protestant
69
20
11
Jewish
55
45
0
Union
Yes
61
30
9
No
'64
26
10
Income
Under $5,000
55
27
18
$5,000-$9,999
61
32
7
$10,000-$14,999
66
26
8
$15,000 +
67
25
8
Sex
Male
62
27
11
Female
63
28
9
Turnout
Definitely vote
65
26
9
Probably vote
40
37
23
May or may not vote
42
58
0
Probably not vote
29
71
0
Definitely not vote
0
0
100
Geographic (Political)
Chicago City
56
37
7
Cook County Outside Chicago
65
29
6
St. Clair & Madison County
66
26
8
22nd Congressional District
63
22
15
All Other
65
23
12
Geographic (ADI)
Davenport-Rock Island-
Moline-Rockford
66
21
13
St. Louis
68
26
6
Springfield-Decatur-
Champaign/Peoria-Paducah-
Cape Giradeau-Harrisburg/
Evansville/Terre Haute/
Quincy/Hannibal
61
26
13
Chicago
62
29
9
Illinois
October 6-9, 1972
500 Interviews
C-1
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
28
28
31
26
31
24
23
Vietnam
51
48
48
53
48
62
42
Inflation
42
40
48
42
43
38
49
Unemployment
33
27
26
38
29
42
39
Crime
39
45
37
38
42
31
43
Drugs
34
44
29
32
38
21
44
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
How serious is corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
42
31
47
48
37
51
49
Fairly serious
30
28
27
34
29
33
27
Not very serious
16
23
15
11
20
10
11
Not at all serious
3
5
3
2
4
1
4
No Opinion
9
13
8
5
10
5
9
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Recent examples of corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Watergate
10
7
10
11
7
17
6
Wheat/Grain Deal
5
6
5
5
3
8
6
ITT
2
1
3
2
2
1
3
None
64
71
58
60
70
48
66
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Specific Examples --
Watergate
Grain Deal
More likely vote Nixon
13
12
More likely vote McGovern
36
33
Not make any difference
39
45
Don't Know
12
10
(50)
(25)
Best job of eliminating corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
26
8
24
41
12
62
14
McGovern
42
70
40
26
63
8
10
Don t Know
32
22
36
33
25
30
76
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Illinois
October 6-9, 1972
500 Interviews
C-2
ISSUES
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
37
17
36
51
19
76
39
Neither A/D
7
6
4
6
6
5
20
Disagree
56
77
60
42
75
19
41
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen --
Nixon
McGovern
Unc.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agrée
50
23
52
68
35
83
54
Neither A/D
10
10
7
11
10
6
15
Disagree
40
67
41
21
55
11
31
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
8
2
6
17
3
19
12
Neither A/D
11
2
9
16
6
18
20
Disagree
81
96
84
67
91
63
68
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
78
79
82
76
83
66
79
Neither A/D
9
8
9
9
7
12
11
Disagree
13
13
9
15
10
22
10
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Explain corruption
24
4
21
43
11
53
29
Desperate political
charge
61
85
66
40
80
22
42
No Opinion
15
11
13
17
9
25
29
(500)
(121)
(191)
(128)
(318)
(128)
(54)
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave
Ohio
October 8-10, 1972
502 Interviews
V-2
1968: +2.3
Trial Heats
Change
McGovern
Margin
From WIII
Without Leaners
58
26
16
With Leaners
61
29
10
+32
+4
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
90
67
34
McGovern
(With Leaners)
7
23
52
Undecided
3
10
14
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
60
26
14
Vietnam
60
31
9
Economy
48
39
13
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
57
(+ 4)
Economy
16 (+ 1)
Inflation
11 (-13)
Unemployment
10 (-10)
Crime
9 (- 8)
Poverty/Welfare
9 (- 3)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
45
73
47
24
Fairly Able
38
20
40
48
Not Very Able
9
3
7
15
Not at all Able
6
1
5
12
Don't Know
2
3
1
1
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
12
8
5
22
Fairly Able
27
19
26
34
Not Very Able
22
22
31
11
Not at all Able
28
45
26
22
Don't Know
11
6
12
11
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
84
70
Probably Vote but still thinking
10
17
Undecided but Lean Toward
5
12
Don't Know
1
1
Ohio
October 8-10, 1972
502 Interviews V-2
A-1
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total - 100%
61%
29%
10%
+32%
502
Age
18-24 years
53
38
9
+15
71
25-34 years
66
28
6
+38
130
35-44 years
61
28
11
+33
93
45-54 years
56
28
16
+28
90
55-64 years
65
26
9
+39
61
65 years +
69
25
6
+44
48
Education
Less than high school
59
30
11
+29
94
High school graduate
60
29
11
+31
237
Gollege
66
27
7
+39
164
Religion
Catholic
52
35
13
+17
119
Protestant
65
26
9
+39
327
Jewish
63
24
13
+39
12
Union
Yes
52
37
11
+15
207
No
69
22
9
+47
285
Income
Under $5,000
50
41
9
+ 9
46
$5,000-$9,999
59
32
9
+27
167
$10,000-$14,999
63
30
7
+33
129
$15,000 +
74
13
13
+61
96
Sex
Male
61
29
10
+32
247
Female
62
28
10
+34
255
Turnout
Definitely vote
62
29
9
+33
470
Probably vote
55
25
20
+30
23
May or may not vote
42
0
58
X
6
Probably not vote
0
50
50
X
2
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
X
0
Geographic (Political)
North and East
55
34
11
+21
233
Northwest
65
19
16
+46
72
Southwest
62
30
8
+32
125
Central and Southeast
78
18
4
+60
72
Geographic (ADI)
Cincinnati
66
30
4
+36
63
Cleveland-Akron-Canton
57
33
10
+24
199
Columbus/Parkersburg
77
20
3
+57
85
Dayton
56
31
13
+25
62
Toledo/Lima/Ft. Wayne
64
14
22
+50
38
Youngstown/Pittsburgh/
Wheeling-Steubenville
52
33
15
+19
55
Ohio
October 8-10, 1972
502 Interviews
V-2
B-1
To
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
60%
26%
14%
Age
18-24 years
50
36
14
25-34 years
68
21
11
35-44 years
62
25
13
45-54 years
53
23
24
55-64 years
58
26
16
65 years +
68
20
12
Education
Less than high school
66
20
14
High school graduate
57
26
17
College
61
27
12
Religion
Catholic
55
33
12
Protestant
64
22
14
Jewish
61
31
8
Union
Yes
52
34
14
No
66
19
15
Income
Under $5,000
49
37
14
$5,000-$9,999
57
28
15
$10,000-$14,999
61
26
13
$15,000 +
71
16
13
Sex
Male
60
27
13
Female
60
25
15
Turnout
Definitely vote
61
26
13
Probably vote
49
17
34
May or may not vote
42
39
19
Probably not vote
50
50
0
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
Geographic (Political)
North and East
52
32
16
Northwest
68
19
13
Southwest
63
23
14
Central and Southeast
72
17
11
Geographic (ADI)
Cincinnati
67
20
13
Cleveland-Akron-Canton
53
33
14
Columbus/Parkersburg
72
19
9
Dayton
59
26
15
Toledo/Lima/Ft. Wayne
70
9
21
Youngstown/Pittsburgh/
Wheeling-Steubenville
48
30
22
Ohio
October 8-10, 1972
502 Interviews
C-1-
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting ---
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
34
37
28
35
32
39
27
Vietnam
58
59
55
62
58
59
55
Inflation
45
43
44
48
45
46
41
Unemployment
41
35
37
54
37
49
47
Crime
45
48
38
49
45
41
57
Drugs
38
43
37
37
41
33
36
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
How serious is corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
39
31
36
44
32
54
41
Fairly serious
39
41
38
43
37
38
45
Not very serious
13
18
15
8
19
5
5
Not at all serious
2
2
5
1
3
1
0
No Opinion
7
8
6
4
9
2
9
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Recent examples of corruption --
"Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
None
65
75
67
60
68
56
73
Watergate
15
10
15
17
11
23
13
Wheat/Grain Deal
7
6
5
10
5
11
5
ITT
5
2
5
7
2
12
2
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Effect of corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
More likely vote Nixon
15
35
9
10
27
0
0
More likely vote McG.
28
10
24
39
0
71
20
Not make any difference 47
45
52
43
62
24
51
Don't Know
10
10
15
8
11
5
29
(163)
(20)
(66)
(49)
(92)
(59)
(12)
Specific Examples --
Wheat
Watergate
Grain Deal
ITT
More likely vote Nixon
10
13
6
More likely vote McGovern
34
46
60
Not make any difference
52
39
34
Don't Know
4
2
0
(74)
(31)
(23)
Best job of eliminating corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
38
64
40
19
58
5
8
McGovern
26
11
21
40
9
68
6
Don't Know
36
25
39
41
33
27
86
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Ohio
October 8-10, 1972
502 Interviews
C-2
ISSUES
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
39
24
32
61
20
76
54
Neither A/D
6
2
6
8
4
8
14
Disagree
55
74
62
31
76
16
32
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
50
29
46
72
31
89
56
Neither A/D
15
17
13
12
17
5
26
Disagree
35
54
41
16
52
6
18
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
13
4
10
25
3
32
20
Neither A/D
12
8
9
16
8
19
20
Disagree
75
88
81
59
89
49
60
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
80
81
81
78
85
68
84
Neither A/D
7
7
6
6
6
8
10
Disagree
13
12
13
16
9
24
6
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Desperate political
charge
53
66
53
39
73
17
32
Explain corruption
28
15
26
44
12
62
29
No Opinion
19
19
21
17
15
21
39
(502)
(93)
(208)
(126)
(314)
(138)
(50)
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUMMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 10, 1972
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EmpriseNARS. Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Minnesota Phone Poll
Preliminary trial heats on Minnesota are as follows:
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Without leaners
53
27
20
With leaners
57
32
11
Senate
Hansen
Mondale
Undecided
With leaners
27
65
8
401 Interviews
October 7-9, 1972
When only
dall
Most
OKV
Phone Number:
(
)
Area Code Maber
TH.
TIME INTERVIEW STARTED:
OPINION SURVEY
I'm
,
and I'm working on a survey about problems and
political figures in the country being made for Opinion Research Corporation of
Princeton, New Jersey. I'd like very much to have your opinion.
1. Are you registered to vote in the
1 YES
IF "YES," CONTINUE INTERVIEW
Presidential election in 1972?
2 NO
IF "NO," TERMINATE INTERVIEW
2. What do you think are the most important problems facing the United States
as a nation at this time?
3.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
Richard Nixon is handling his job as
2 DISAPPROVE
President?
3 NO OPINION
4. Do you approve or disspprove of the way
1 APPROVE
President Nixon is handling the Vietnam
2 DISAPPROVE
situation?
3 NO OPINION
S.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
1 APPROVE
President Nixon is dealing with the
2 DISAPPROVE
economic conditions in this country?
3 NO OPINION
INTERVIEWER: NOTATE ORDER IN WHICH YOU ASK QUESTIONS 6 AND 7.
6. How would you rate Richard Nixon in terms
1 VERY ABLE
of his ability to handle the job of
2 FAIRLY ABLE
President very able, fairly able, not
3 NOT VERY ABLE
very able, not at all able?
4 NOT AT ALL ABLE
S -DON'T KNOW
7. How would you rate George NEGovern in terms
1 VERY ABLE
of his ability to handle the job of
2 FAIRLY ABLE
President very able, fairly able, not
3 NOT VERY ABLE
very able, not at all able?
4 NOT AT ALL ABLE
$ DON'T KNOW
--2
S. If the election for President were held
1 RIOWARD NINON
today, would you be voting for Richard
2 GEORGE MCGOVERY
Nixon, the Republican; or George McGovern,
3 UNDECTINED
S TO 8b
the Democrat?
IF "NIXOV" OR "HOOVERY" ON Q. 8, ASX:
&a, As of today will you definitely vote
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
,
probably vote
2 PROBABLY WITE
but still thinking about it, or are you
BUT STILL THINKING Non IT
undecided but leaning toward
?
3 UNDECIDED BUT LEANING
TOWARD
4 NO ANSWER
IF "UNDECTDLI" ON Q. 8, ASK:
8b. As of today, do you lean toward
1 McCOVERN
McGovern or Nixon?
2 WIXON
3 UNDECTIED
9. In the election this Fall will you
1 DEFINITELY VOTE
definitely vote, probably vote, may
2 PROBABLY WIL
or may not vote, probably not vote;
3 MAY OR MAY NOT VOTE
or definitely not vote?
4 PROBABLY NOT VOTE
$ DEFINITELY NOT VOTE
6 DON'T KNOW
10. Did you see Senator McGovern's Vietnam
statement on television Tuesday evening?
1 YES - SAW STATEMENT
2 NO - bib NOT SEE STATEMENT
If YES OH C. 10 ASK:
10a Was your general impression favorable
or unfavorable?
1 FAVORABLE
2 UNFAVORABLE
3 HEITHER
10b. Khy?
4 NO OPINION
10c. Do you think Senstor KcGovern's plan for
ending the Vietnam var will or vill not work? 1 WILL WORK
2 WILL NOT WORK
11. Do you think that the NeGovern plan or the Mixon
plen will be the most likely to cod the May in
Vietnam?
1 McGOVERH PLAN
2 NIXON PLAN
3 NEITHER
4 DON'T KNOW/NO OPINION
12, Do you think that the Nixon plan or the KrGovern
plan will be movit likely to set our prisences
home the
1 HIXOH PLAN
2. McGOYPRRH PLAN
3 HEITHER
4 DON'T KNOW/HO OPINION
12-1/2. What do you think are the main differences between
the Hixon Plan and the KeGovern Plan?
13. In the last general election in which you
1 STRAIGHT DEMOCRAT
voted, which answer best describes how you
2 MOSTLY DE-DCRAT
voted for state and local offices such as
3 A FEW HDRE DEVOCRATS THAN
Governor and Senator? (READ ODICES TO
REPUBLICANS
RESPONDENT.)
4 ABOUT EQUALLY FOR BOTH PARTIES
$ A FEW IDRE REPUBLICANS
THAN DE-DCRATS
6 MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
7 STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN
8 NEVER WIED
9 DON'T INDIV
14.
What is your age?
1 17-20 YEARS
7 45-49 YEARS
2 21-24 YEARS
a 50-54 YEARS
3 25-29 YEARS
9 55-59 YLARS
4 30-34 YEARS
10 60-64 YEARS
5 35-39 YEARS
11 65 AND OVER
6 40-44 YEARS
12 REFUSED
15.
What is the last grade of school
you completed?
1 GRADE SCHOOL OR LESS (GRADES 1-8)
2 SOME HIGH SCHOOL
3 GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL (GRADE 12)
4 WOCATIONAL/TEDNICAL SOHOOL
$ SOME COLLEGE
6 GRADUATE COLLEGE
7 POST GRADUATE WORK
& REFUSED
16.
What is your religion?
1 DONAN CATHOLIC
2 PROTESTANT
3 JEWISH
7 OTHER (Specify)
17. Are you a labor union member?
1 YES
2 NO
IF "NO" ON O. 17, ASK:
17a. Is any rember of your imediate
1 YES
family a union member?
2 NO
18.
Khich classification included your
1 0-$2,999
TOTAL FAMILY INCOME IN 1971 before
2 $3,000-$4,999
.
taxes? (READ CHOICES TO RESPONDENT.)
3 $5,000-$5,999
4 $6,000-$6,999
5 $7,000-$9,999
6 $10,000-$14,999
7 $15,000-$24,999
8 $25,000 AND OVER
9 REFUSED
19.
Sex:
1 MULE
2 FEMALE
20.
What county do you live in?
Time Ended:
Length:
Loc. I:
Region#:
Interviewer:
Date:
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave
2
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-3
1968: +2
Trial Heats
Change
McGovern
Margin
From WIII
Without Leaners
54
27
19
With Leaners
58
33
9
+25
-6
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
88
66
35
McGovern
(With Leaners)
10
24
54
Undecided
2
10
11
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
60
27
13
Vietnam
58
33
9
Economy
41
44
15
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
56 (- 4)
Inflation
16 (- 4)
Unemployment
14 (- 3)
Poverty
14 (- 2)
Taxes
11 (-12)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
39
61
41
23
Fairly Able
40
33
43
45
Not Very Able
10
2
8
15
Not at all Able
8
3
6
13
Don't Know
3
1
2
4
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
11
6
7
19
Fairly Able
28
15
24
36
Not Very Able
19
29
22
10
Not at all Able
26
38
31
17
Don't Know
16
12
16
18
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
80
73
Probably Vote but still thinking
11
13
Undecided but Lean Toward
8
13
Don't Know
1
3
State Ballot
Senate (With Leaners)
Clifford Case
53
Paul Krebs
28
Undecided
19
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
A-1
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
58%
33%
9%
+25
551
Age
18-24 years
51
44
5
+7
60
25-34 years
59
34
7
+25
124
35-44 years
59
31
10
+28
122
45-54 years
55
35
10
+20
106
55-64 years
65
24
11
+41
84
65 years +
57
29
14
+28
51
Education
Less than high school
53
32
15
+21
113
High school graduate
64
27
9
+37
201
College
55
39
6
+16
235
Religion
Catholic
62
27
11
+35
250
Protestant
63
31
6
+32
216
Jewish
29
62
9
-33
22
Union
Yes
52
39
9
+13
194
No
61
29
10
+32
346
Income
Under $5,000
37
54
9
-17
46
$5,000-$9,999
61
33
6
+28
133
$10,000-$14,999
61
31
8
+30
136
$15,000 +
67
27
6
+40
149
Sex
Male
60
33
7
+27
278
Female
57
32
11
+25
273
Turnout
Definitely vote
60
32
8
+28
497
Probably vote
47
36
17
+11
48
May or may not vote
54
23
23
X
5
Probably not vote
0
100
0
X
1
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
X
0
Geographic (Political)
Inner Urban Ring
54
38
8
+16
241
Southern
57
34
9
+23
110
Suburban Ring
63
25
12
+38
153
Western
71
23
6
+48
47
Geographic (ADI)
New York
59
32
9
+27
397
Philadelphia
54
36
10
+18
154
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-3
B-1
19
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
60%
27%
13%
Age
18-24 years
53
35
12
25-34 years
63
29
8
35-44 years
61
26
13
45-54 years
55
33
12
55-64 years
63
21
16
65 years +
60
19
21
Education
Less than high school
57
24
19
High school graduate
66
20
14
College
55
36
9
Religion
Catholic
63
25
12
Protestant
66
22
12
Jewish
24
49
27
Union
Yes
57
33
10
No
61
24
15
Income
Under $5,000
46
32
22
$5,000-$9,999
64
27
9
$10,000-$14,999
61
26
13
$15,000 +
64
26
10
Sex
Male
58
29
13
Female
61
26
13
Turnout
Definitely vote
61
27
12
Probably vote
44
29
27
May or may not vote
77
23
0
Probably not vote
0
0
100
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
Geographic (Political)
Inner Urban Ring
56
30
14
Southern
55
30
15
Suburban Ring
63
24
13
Western
80
16
4
Geographic (ADI)
New York
61
26
13
Philadelphia
56
31
13
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-3
C-1
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
32
32
35
31
29
38
37
Vietnam
56
55
22
60
52
63
54
Inflation
44
56
43
39
44
44
42
Unemployment
32
32
30
30
29
34
43
Crime
41
46
42
37
44
38
38
Drugs
42
38
38
47
40
40
57
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
How serious is corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
39
26
36
48
29
54
45
Fairly serious
37
44
38
32
43
29
32
Net very serious
13
18
15
9
17
7
10
Not at all serious
3
4
3
1
3
1
3
No Opinion
8
8
8
10
8
9
10
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Recent examples of corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
None
69
75
67
70
76
58
67
Watergate
10
5
11
9
5
19
9
Wheat/Grain Deal
7
8
8
7
3
13
6
State & Local Corrupt.
5
4
6
5
5
4
9
ITT
4
0
4
7
2
9
2
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Effect of corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
More likely vote Nixon
11
10
16
10
23
0
6
More likely vote McG.
40
22
41
50
4
79
29
Not make any difference 37
52
34
33
56
16
39
Don't Know
12
16
9
7
17
5
26
(159)
(31)
(58)
(42)
(77)
(69)
(13)
Specific Examples ---
Watergate
Grain Deal
ITT
More likely vote Nixon
4
3
5
More likely vote McGovern
57
65
60
Not make any difference
30
30
25
Don't Know
9
2
10
(56)
(37)
(20)
Best job of eliminating corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
38
63
41
23
59
5
20
McGovern
29
12
26
42
8
71
11
Don't Know
33
25
33
35
33
24
69
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-3
C-2
19
ISSUES
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
42
22
36
56
23
78
37
Neither A/D
7
10
8
5
6
6
17
Disagree
51
68
56
39
71
16
46
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
58
31
60
75
41
88
67
Neither A/D
12
16
12
8
14
5
15
Disagree
30
53
28
17
45
7
18
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
14
4
11
20
4
32
13
Neither A/D
12
5
11
17
6
21
17
Disagree
74
91
78
63
90
47
70
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
74
79
76
71
80
63
78
Neither A/D
8
6
9
9
7
10
7
Disagree
18
15
15
20
13
27
15
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Desperate political
charge
53
75
59
36
76
17
39
Explain corruption
32
18
25
45
12
69
28
No opinion
15
7
16
19
12
14
33
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Telephone Survey - Rolling Wave
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
1-2
1968: +2
Trial Heats
Change
McGovern
Margin
From WIII
Without Leaners
54
27
19
With Leaners
58
33
9
+25
-6
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
88
66
35
McGovern
(With Leaners)
10
24
54
Undecided
2
10
11
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
60
27
13
Vietnam
58
33
9
Economy
41
44
15
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
56 (-4)
Inflation
16 (-4)
Unemployment
14 (-3)
Poverty
14 (-2)
Taxes
11 (-12)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
40 39 7 79
61.
41
23
Fairly Able
33
43
45
Not Very Able
10 8 718
2
8
15
Not at all Able
3
6
13
Don't Know
3
1
2
4
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
28 11 739
6
7
19
Fairly Able
15
24
36
Not Very Able
19745
29
22
10
Not at all Able
38
31
17
Don't Know
16
12
16
18
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
80
73
Probably Vote but still thinking
11
13
Undecided but Lean Toward
8
13
Don't Know
1
3
State Ballot
Senate (With Leaners)
Clifford Case
53
Paul Krebs
28
Undecided
19
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-2
A-1
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
58%
33%
9%
+25
551
Age
18-24 years
51
44
5
+ 7
60
25-34 years
59
34
7
+25
124
35-44 years
59
31
10
+28
122
45-54 years
55
35
10
+20
106
55-64 years
65
24
11
+41
84
65 years +
57
29
14
+28
51
Education
Less than high school
53
32
15
+21
113
High school graduate
64
27
9
+37
201
College
55
39
6
+16
235
Religion
Catholic
62
27
11
+35
250
Protestant
63
31
6
+32
216
Jewish
29
62
9
-33
22
Union
Yes
52
39
9
+13
194
No
61
29
10
+32
346
Income
Under $5,000
37
54
9
-17
46
$5,000-$9,999
61
33
6
+28
133
$10,000-$14,999
61
31
8
+30
136
$15,000 +
67
27
6
+40
149
Sex
Male
60
33
7
+27
278
Female
57
32
11
+25
273
Turnout
Definitely vote
60
32
8
+28
497
Probably vote
47
36
17
+11
48
May or may not vote
54
23
23
X
5
Probably not vote
0
100
0
X
1
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
X
0
Geographic (Political)
Inner Urban Ring
54
38
8
+16
241
Southern
57
34
9
+23
110
Suburban Ring
63
25
12
+38
153
Western
71
23
6
+48
47
Geographic (ADI)
New York
59
32
9
+27
397
Philadelphia
54
36
10
+18
154
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-2
B-1
7/9
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
60%
27%
13%
Age
18-24 years
53
35
12
25-34 years
63
29
8
35-44 years
61
26
13
45-54 years
55
33
12
55-64 years
63
21
16
65 years +
60
19
21
Education
Less than high school
57
24
19
High school graduate
66
20
14
College
55
36
9
Religion
Catholic
63
25
12
Protestant
66
22
12
Jewish
24
49
27
Union
Yes
57
33
10
No
61
24
15
Income
Under $5,000
46
32
22
$5,000-$9,999
64
27
9
$10,000-$14,999
61
26
13
$15,000 +
64
26
10
Sex
Male
58
29
13
Female
61
26
13
Turnout
Definitely vote
61
27
12
Probably vote
44
29
27
May or may not vote
77
23
0
Probably not vote
0
0
100
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
Geographic (Political)
Inner Urban Ring
56
30
14
Southern
55
30
15
Suburban Ring
63
24
13
Western
80
16
4
Geographic (ADI)
New York
61
26
13
Philadelphia
56
31
13
New Jersey
October 6-9, 1972
551 Interviews
V-2
C-1
14
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem:
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
32
32
35
31
29
38
37
Vietnam
56
55
22
60
52
63
54
Inflation
44
56
43
39
44
44
42
Unemployment
32
32
30
30
29
34
43
Crime
41
46
42
37
44
38
38
Drugs
42
38
38
47
40
40
57
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
How serious is corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
39
26
36
48
29
54
45
Fairly serious
37
44
38
32
43
29
32
Not very serious
13
18
15
9
17
7
10
Not at all serious
3
4
3
1
3
1
3
No Opinion
8
8
8
10
8
9
10
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Recent examples of corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
None
69
75
67
70
76
58
67
Watergate
10
5
11
9
5
19
9
Wheat/Grain Deal
7
8
8
7
3
13
6
State & Local Corrupt.
5
4
6
5
5
4
9
ITT
4
0
4
7
2
9
2
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Effect of corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
More likely vote Nixon
11
10
16
10
23
0
6
More likely vote McG.
40
22
41
50
4
79
29
Not make any difference 37
52
34
33
56
16
39
Don't Know
12
16
9
7
17
5
26
(159)
(31)
(58)
(42)
(77)
(69)
(13)
Specific Examples --
Watergate
Grain Deal
ITT
More likely vote Nixon
4
3
5
More likely vote McGovern
57
65
60
Not make any difference
30
30
25
Don't Know
9
2
10
(56)
(37)
(20)
Best job of eliminating corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
38
63
41
23
59
5
20
McGovern
29
12
26
42
8
71
11
Don't Know
33
25
33
35
33
24
69
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
New Jersey
C-2
9
ISSUES
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
42
22
36
56
23
78
37
Neither A/D
7
10
8
5
6
6
17
Disagree
51
68
56
39
71
16
46
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
58
31
60
75
41
88
67
Neither A/D
12
16,
12
8
14
5
15
Disagree
30
53
28
17
45
7
18
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
14
4
11
20
4
32
13
Neither A/D
12
5
11
17
6
21
17
Disagree
74
91
78
63
90
47
70
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
74
79
76
71
80
63
78
Neither A/D
8
6
9
9
7
10
7
Disagree
18
15
15
20
13
27
15
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge ---
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Desperate political
charge
53
75
59
36
76
17
39
Explain corruption
32
18
25
45
12
69
28
No opinion
15
7
16
19
12
14
33
(551)
(133)
(193)
(150)
(339)
(163)
(49)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 9, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
Will you please check Teeter and see whether or not
he didn't foul up our miscellaneous state polls? Was
.
our interviewing done in the daytime or the evening?
all begin 4p.
wva, +Ga)
Reienn
10/11
STATE POLL: WASHINGTON
Polling Date: October 3-4, '72
Respondents: 434 (Registered)
1. If the 1972 Presidential election were being held today,
would you vote for Richard Nixon, the Republican candidate,
or George McGovern, the Democratic candidate?
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
0-Oct 2,
'72
(MASS)
37
35
28
0-Oct 3,
'72
(W.VA.)
51
18
16
0-Oct 3-4, '72
(WASH)
44
27
29
(If neither, or undecided on question #1, ask question #2.)
(If a candidate is named, go on to question #3.)
2. Would you say that you lean more toward Richard Nixon or
more toward George McGovern?
Polling Date
Nixon
McGovern
N.O.
0-Oct 2,
'72
(MASS)
44 (+7)
41 (+6)
15
0-Oct
3,
'72
(W.VA.)
60 (+9)
24 (+6)
16
0-Oct
3- 4, '72
(WASH)
53 (+9)
32 (+5)
15
T-Jun 13-18, '72
(WASH)
41
45
13
(Those people who said Nixon or McGovern on question #1 as well
as those who say Nixon or McGovern on question #2 are directed to
go to question #3.)
3. Have you definitely made up your mind which candidate you
would prefer for President or is there some possibility that
you will change your mind during the campaign?
Made Up
May Change
Polling Date
Mind
Mind
N.O.
0-Oct 2,
'72
(MASS)
65
24
11
0-Oct 3,
'72
(W.VA.)
67
20
13
0-Oct 3-4, '72
(WASH)
65
25
10
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EMPRISE NARS, Date 5-22-80
MEMORANDUm
October 10, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
New Jersey Phone Poll
Preliminary trial heats on New Jersey are as follows:
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Without leaners
54
27
19
With leaners
58
33
9
Change from Wave III
(-4)
(+ 2)
(+ 1)
Senate
Case
Krebs
Undecided
neturn
With leaners
53
28
19
551 Interviews
October 6-9, 1972
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
prise
MEMORANDUM
WAY
Date. 5-22-80
October 10, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Minnesota Phone Poll
Preliminary trial heats on Minnesota are as follows:
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Without leaners
53
27
20
With leaners
57
32
11
Senate
Hansen
Mondale
Undecided
not
23
With leaners
27
65
8
401 Interviews
October 7-9, 1972
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 9, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Illinois and Iowa Polls
Bob Teeter called with the Rolling Wave Illinois
results:
RN
McG
Un
0-Oct 6-9 with leaners:
62
-27
-11
L
without leaners:
58
23
19
covered
W3-Sep 5-6
56
26
18
w/H
1019
Percy
Pucinski
Un
740
0-Oct 6-9
60
27
13
Ogilvie
Walker
Un
49
42
9
Teeter also obtained an Idaho poll:
Central Surveys
RN
McG
Un
Sep 25-30
66
16
18
McClure
Davis
Un
47
30
23
These figures will be added to your poll book.
Ht
Vanswer the treatly
Presn
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
question -
-
MEMORANDUME. O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 5, 1972
C
By emprese NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER RUNT
SUBJECT:
Phone Polls
The question has been raised as to why we are slipping slightly
in the national polls but have either held steady or gained slightly
in the priority state telephone polls ORC has done during the last
week.
One reason for this difference may be that our leads were so large
in the southern, praire and mountain states that any shift to McGovern
occurred there first. In several of these states our leads were. 40-50%
and McGovern was running far below the Democratic base vote.
Also, as I indicated to you earlier we have had a problem with ORC
doing too large a proportion of their interviewing in the daytime
on the first few phone polls. This clearly inflated the Michigan
data and may have effected the others to a lesser degree. We have
independent data on Los Angeles and Orange Counties which we have
compared to the Los Angeles and Orange County portion of the ORC
study and it is very close. The problem has been solved by requiring
ORC to use more lines and do all their interviewing after 5:00p.m.
The five states we are now doing should give us a more reliable
comparison between our priority states and the national polls.
I have compared our Wave III national poll with the latest Harris,
and the latest Gallup and while the demographic breaks do not always
match up, it appears that our slippage has been fairly uniform across
demographic groups. It appears to be just slightly greater among
those groups that are traditionally Democratic (low income and education,
Catholics, young voters) but the differences are not statistically
significant.
Maryland
October 4-5, 1972
409 Interviews
1968: -2
V-3
Trial Heats
McGovern
Without Leaners
53
29
18
With Leaners
58
32
10
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
88
68
45
McGovern
(With Leaners)
10
27
40
Undecided
2
5
15
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
59
31
10
Vietnam
57
32
11
Economy
40
47
13
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
48 (- 7)
Economy
18 (+ 3)
Crime
15 (-8)
Inflation
13 (- 5)
Unemployment
10
(+ 0)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
38
70
42
27
Fairly Able
38
18
39
43
Not Very Able
13
6
12
15
Not at all Able
8
4
5
11
Don't Know
3
2
2
4
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
12
10
8
14
Fairly Able
30
18
26
36
Not Very Able
19
21
26
15
Not at all Able
24
41
28
18
Don't Know
15
10
12
17
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
87
79
Probably Vote but still thinking
7
10
Undecided but Lean Toward
4
8
Don't Know
2
3
Maryland
A-1
October 4-5, 1972
409 Interviews
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
V-3
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
58%
32%
10%
+26%
409
Age
18-24 years
51
44
5
+7
44
25-34 years
56
31
13
+25
102
35-44 years
55
38
7
+17
86
45-54 years
62
29
9
+33
73
55-64 years
54
28
18
+26
66
65 years +
71
23
6
+48
37
Education
Less than high school
57
33
10
+24
77
High school graduate
65
20
15
+45
135
College
52
40
8
+12
196
Religion
Catholic
66
22
12
+44
111
Protestant
61
30
9
+31
231
Jewish
28
62
10
-34
27
Union
Yes
56
33
11
+23
144
No
58
32
10
+26
261
Income
Under $5,000
56
41
3
+15
23
$5,000-$9,999
58
30
12
+28
105
$10,000-$14,999
61
28
11
+33
90
$15,000 +
53
37
10
+16
142
Sex
Male
61
31
8
+30
205
Female
54
33
13
+21
204
Turnout
Definitely vote
60
32
8
+28
370
Probably vote
36
33
31
+3
21
May or may not vote
18
52
30
-34
7
Probably not vote
16
0
84
+16
5
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
+ 0
0
Geographic (ADI)
Baltimore
60
29
11
+31
253
Washington, D.C.
53
38
9
+15
143
Salisbury/Pittsburgh
71
19
10
+52
13
no
Maryland
October 4-5, 1972
409 Interviews
B-1
V-3
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total - 100%
59%
31%
10%
Age
18-24 years
53
36
11
25-34 years
57
27
16
35-44 years
59
31
10
45-54 years
57
34
9
55-64 years
56
35
9
65 years +
78
20
2
Education
Less than high school
66
29
5
High school graduate
63
26
11
College
53
35
12
Religion
Catholic
66
24
10
Protestant
64
28
8
Jewish
18
53
29
Union
Yes
58
33
9
No
59
30
11
Income
Under $5,000
61
26
13
$5,000-$9,999
58
34
8
$10,000-$14,999
60
31
9
$15,000 +
56
32
12
Sex
Male
59
32
9
Female
59
29
12
Turnout
Definitely vote
62
29
9
Probably vote
27
32
41
May or may not vote
29
41
30
Probably not vote
0
100
0
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
Geographic (ADI)
Baltimore
61
30
9
Washington, D.C.
55
32
13
Salisbury/Pittsburgh
65
25
10
Maryland
October 4-5, 1972
409 Interviews
V-3
.C-1
ISSUES
Most important issue in voting --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Corruption in Gov't.
29
20
27
32
24
40
23
Vietnam
46
47
43
44
44
52
36
Inflation
39
47
47
35
42
34
37
Unemployment
24
20
23
24
23
25
28
Crime
43
47
49
38
43
39
54
Drugs
31
25
36
29
34
26
32
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
How serious is corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Very serious
34
14
26
43
20
57
38
Fairly serious
42
47
49
38
45
37
44
Not very serious
14
29
13
12
22
4
5
Not at all serious
3
2
5
2
4
0
5
No Opinion
7
8
7
5
9
2
8
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Recent examples of corruption
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Watergate
19
10
21
23
7
44
11
Wheat/Grain Deal
10
10
10
10
5
19
6
ITT
7
2
3
11
3
15
9
GOP Fund Sources
2
0
4
1
1
3
2
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Effect of corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Not make any difference 10
28
12
7
22
1
8
More likely vote McG.
43
5
34
54
1
84
5
More likely vote Nixon
36
56
42
29
64
10
53
Don't Know
11
11
12
10
13
5
34
(161)
(18)
(57)
(70)
(69)
(78)
(14)
Specific Examples --
Effect
Watergate
Grain Deal
ITT
Not make any difference
30
28
26
More likely vote McGovern
62
54
63
More likely vote Nixon
1
3
0
Don't Know
7
15
11
Best job of eliminating corruption --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Nixon
35
49
26
25
51
5
17
McGovern
33
18
38
46
17
78
8
Don't Know
31
31
35
29
31
16
75
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Maryland
October 4-5, 1972
409 Interviews
C-2
ISSUES-
Should Nixon stop hiding in White House and debate issues with McGovern --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
42
25
37
50
20
81
42
Neither A/D
10
6
7
10
9
8
22
Disagree
48
69
56
40
71
11
36
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Administration treat business with favoritism at expense of average citizen ---
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
58
21
53
72
37
89
78
Neither A/D
12
14
13
8
17
5
8
Disagree
30
65
34
20
46
6
14
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Administration is more corrupt than any administration --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
16
8
7
23
3
41
13
Neither A/D
14
10
13
16
12
16
23
Disagree
70
82
80
61
85
43
64
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Certain amount of corruption in every administration and this one is no
better or worse --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Agree
73
82
81
68
84
52
75
Neither A/D
9
6
7
8
6
11
18
Disagree
18
12
12
24
10
37
7
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
Corruption needs explaining versus desperate political charge --
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
Total
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Voters
Voters
Voters
Explain Corruption
37
12
28
49
14
78
42
Desperate political
charge
49
76
64
35
73
13
19
No Opinion
14
12
8
16
13
9
39
(409)
(51)
(137)
(157)
(241)
(129)
(39)
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
MEMORANDUM
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 4, 1972
By
OMPRISE E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
5-22-50
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER RUNT
SUBJECT:
California and Michigan Telephone Polls
Attached is the telephone poll data for Michigan and California.
The trial heat data indicates an increase in the President's margin
in both states. However, our initial analysis makes me somewhat
suspicious of the Michigan data and I believe our lead is over stated.
Market Opinion conducted a poll for the Detroit News last week which
was published Sunday and gave the President a lead of 15%. The News
Poll results were fairly close to both our Wave III and an earlier
News Poll. The results of all three of these personal interview polls
indicates that our lead is somewhat less than in the ORC telephone poll.
Phone
Detroit News Poll
Wave III
Detroit News Poll
Poll
(Personal)
(Personal)
(Personal)
Nixon
63
52
55
54
McGovern
26
37
37
38
Undecided
11
11
8
8
Margin
+37
+15
+18
+16
No. of Interviews
(511)
(798)
(804)
(800)
Dates
Sept. 27-29
Sept. 17-21
Sept. 5-7
Aug. 28-Sept. 1
We have compared the ORC sample to both the Wave III and Detroit News
samples and they are similar in terms of demographic and political makeup.
However, I suspect the discrepancy is because too large a proportion of
the interviewing on the ORC poll was done in the daytime. I know from
experience that the respondents you get on the telephone during the
day are not necessarily the same types of people you reach in the
evening even though they may be similar demographically.
- 2 -
I have asked ORC to furnish me data on when the interviewing was
done in each of the states they have done and hope to be able to
draw a definite conclusion from it.
If we determine that this is in fact the problem, we can solve it
by requiring ORC to do a set percentage of their interviewing in the
evening. This will require more lines or a Longer period for completing
the interviewing. It is however, a problem we should not have had and
one which it is ORC's responsibility to solve. If they cannot, we
will have to switch vendors for the last month of the campaign. Up to
now they have been both slow and uncooperative with the phone poll project.
From the information we have this does not appear to be as severe
or possibly a problem at all in the New York, Pennsylvania or
California data. We have current data from DMI on Los Angeles and
Orange Counties and it also shows an increase in our margin.
Phone Poll
Wave III
(Without Leaners)
(Personal)
Nixon
56
53
McGovern
31
37
Undecided
13
10
Margin
+25
+16
Chg. in Margin
(+ 9)
(+10)
No. Interviews
(514)
(1000)
Dates
Sept. 24-Oct. 2
Sept. 5-11
Los Angeles/Orange Phone Poll (Without Leaners)
Nixon
63 (+4)
59 (+3)
56
McGovern
19 (-9)
28 (-2)
30
Undecided
18 (+5)
13 (-1)
14
Margin
+44
+31
+26
Chg. in Margin
(+13)
(+ 5)
N/A
No. Interviews
(1000)
(1000)
(1000)
Dates
Last Wk Sept.
Last Wk Aug.
Last Wk July
California
Sept. 25 - Oct. 2, 1972
514 Interviews
V-2
1968: +4
Trial Heats
McGovern
Without Leaners
56
31
13
With Leaners
58
34
8
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
93
70
30
McGovern
(With Leaners)
2
24
58
Undecided
5
6
12
Why Voting For
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Better Man/More Experience
38
38
20
33
Doing Good Job
34
42
29
31
Agree with his Policies
27
25
27
31
Republican
9
11
8
12
Honest/Sincere
5
3
5
12
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Better Man/More Experience
32
50
26
36
Agree with his Policies
30
0
46
22
Democrat
21
50
17
24
Need Change
15
0
17
17
For People
13
0
6
15
What Would Change Mind
Nixon Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
77
78
78
71
New Candidate
8
6
10
10
Nixon Changes
5
6
4
4
War Escalated
.4
3
3
10
Other (Mixed)
6
7
4
8
McGovern Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
69
100
54
73
McGovern Changes
9
0
14
10
War End
9
0
9
9
New Candidate
4
0
6
3
Other (Mixed)
8
0
11
6
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
56
36
8
Vietnam
52
39
9
Economy
46
45
9
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
52 (+ 2)
Economy
18 (+ 7)
'I
Unemployment
16
(- 6)
Crime
14
(+ 4)
Inflation
10 (- 8)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
43
74
48
21
Very Able
15
3
9
24
Fairly Able
35
24
39
42
Fairly Able
29
9
29
37
Not Very Able
12
0
8
21
Not Very Able
20
31
23
13
Not at all Able
9
2
5
15
Not at all Able
25
50
26
15
Don't Know
1
0
0
1
Don't Know
11
7
13
11
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
82
72
Probably Vote but still thinking
8
15
Undecided but Lean Toward
9
13
Don't Know
1.
0
California
September 25-Oct.22, 1972
A-1
514 Interviews
V-2
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
58%
34%
8%
+24
514
Age
18-24 years
40
57
3
-17
75
25-34 years
62
32
6
+30
117
35-44 years
59
30
11
+29
87
45-54 years
64
29
7
+35
82
55-64 years
62
30
8
+32
85
65 years +
65
22
13
+43
60
Education
Less than high school
46
40
14
+6
88
High school graduate
58
34
8
+24
160
College
64
30
6
+34
260
Religion
Catholic
55
38
7
+17
106
Protestant
64
29
7
+35
288
Jewish
50
50
0
+ 0
24
Union
Yes
46
43
11
+3
209
No
68
26
6
+42
286
Income
Under $5,000
37
51
12
-14
66
$5,000-$9,999
54
38
8
+16
126
$10,000-$14,999
63
30
7
+33
139
$15,000 +
73
25
2
+48
127
Sex
Male
57
37
6
+20
251
Female
60
31
9
+29
259
Turnout
Definitely vote
61
33
6
+28
478
Probably vote
30
45
25
-15
20
May or may not vote
67
0
33
+67
6
Probably not vote
0
33
67
-33
3
Definitely not vote
0
50
50
-50
2
Geographic (Political)
Shasta/Sonoma
50
50
0
+ 0
6
Alameda/Contra Costa/
San Francisco/San Mateo/
Santa Clara
49
43
8
+6
92
Sacramento/San Joaquin/
Tulare
38
56
6
-18
34
?
Monterey/Santa Barbara
100
0
0
+100
7
Los Angeles
60
33
7
+27
202
Orange/Riverside/San
Bernadino/San Diego
64
24
12
+40
102
Geographic (ADI)
Bakersfield
71
0
29
+71
7
Chico-Redding
68
21
11
+47
19
E1 Centro
43
43
14
+0
7
Fresno
53
41
6
+12
17
Los Angeles
60
31
9
+29
271
Palm Springs
44
56
0
-12
9
Sacramento-Stockton
51
45
4
+6
49
San Diego
68
25
+43
44
San Francisco
52
41
7
+11
102
Santa Barbara/Santa
100
0
0
+100
7
Maria
California
Sept. 25 - Oct. 2, 1972
514 Interviews
V-2
B-1
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
56%
36%
8%
Age
18-24 years
45
51
4
25-34 years
60
32
8
35-44 years
60
33
7
45-54 years
56
37
7
55-64 years
53
36
11
65 years +
63
27
10
Education
Less than high school
46
41
13
High school graduate
53
37
10
College
62
33
5
Religion
Catholic
60
35
5
Protestant
61
31
8
Jewish
33
63
4
Union
Yes
46
44
10
No
64
29
7
Income
Under $5,000
42
53
5
$5,000-$9,999
59
36
5
$10,000-$14,999
58
33
9
$15,000 +
64
31
5
Sex
Male
56
37
7
Female
58
34
8
Turnout
Definitely vote
57
36
7
Probably vote
55
30
15
May or may not vote
33
33
34
Probably not vote
0
100
0
Definitely not vote
0
50
50
Geographic (Political)
Shasta/Sonoma
33
50
17
Alameda/Contra Costa/
San Francisco/San Mateo/
Santa Clara
49
40
11
Sacramento/San Joaquin/
?
Tulare
44
56
0
Monterey/Santa Barbara
100
0
0
Los Angeles
54
38
8
Orange/Riverside/San
Bernadino/San Diego
66
29
5
Geographic (ADI)
Bakersfield
29
14
57
Chico-Redding
69
26
5
E1 Centro
57
29
14
Fresno
65
35
0
Los Angeles
56
37
7
Palm Springs
44
45
11
Sacramento-Stockton
57
39
4
San Diego
66
32
2
San Francisco
52
38
10
Santa Barbara/Santa Maria
100
0
0
California
September 25-Oct. 2, 1972
514 Interviews
C-1
V-2
ISSUES
Do you think Richard Nixon or George McGovern's policies would get
Prisoners of War released sooner?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
40
63
50
20
McGovern
28
8
19
44
Don't Know
32
29
31
36
Do you think the North Vietnamese are using prisoner release issue
to influence election?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
71
76
79
65
No
13
8
12
15
Don't Know
16
16
9
20
Do you know about Russian Grain Deal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
71
80
77
64
No
22
19
17
27
Don't Know
7
1
6
9
(514)
(109)
(160)
(187)
If yes, do you approve?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Approve
54
50
60
49
Disapprove
30
32
24
37
Don't Know
16
18
16
14
(367)
(87)
(123)
(120)
If yes, have you heard about scandal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
69
69
78
70
No
27
30
18
27
Don't know
4
1
4
3
(367)
(87)
(123)
(120)
If yes, do you believe charge that exporters made excess
profit from inside information?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
52
32
55
68
No
13
18
11
12
Don't Know
35
50
34
20
(255)
(60)
(96)
(84)
Michigan
September 27-29, 1972
511 Interviews
V-2
1968:
-6
Trial Heats
McGovern
Without Leaners
59
23
18
With Leaners
63
26
11
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
93
74
42
McGovern
(With Leaners)
2
12
48
Undecided
5
14
10
Why Voting For
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Better/More Experience
37
40
38
29
Doing Good Job
35
40
26
42
Agree with his policies
21
12
27
24
Republican
6
8
5
4
Honest/Sincere
6
6
6
7
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Agree with his policies
30
0
24
30
Democrat
19
0
6
24
Better/More Experience
18
0
18
19
For People
14
33
24
13
Need Change
14
33
24
11
What Would Change Mind
Nixon Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
81
92
75
73
New Candidate
7
4
7
11
Nixon Changes
5
1
7
7
War Escalated
2
0
3
2
Other (Mixed)
4
3
7
2
McGovern Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
81
67
53
85
New Candidate
5.
0
6
6
War End
3
0
12
2
McGovern Changes
2
0
0
2
Other (Mixed)
10
33
29
7
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
59
26
15
Vietnam
59
32
9
Economy
43
45
12
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
61
(+ 8)
Unemployment
13
(-12)
Poverty/Welfare
13
(+ 3)
Integration schools/Bussing
12
(- 5)
Economy
12
(+ 0)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem
Very Able
41
78
44
21
Very Able
12
4
4
23
Fairly Able
38
17
44
44
Fairly Able
28
15
31
31
Not Very Able
12
2
7
21
Not Very Able
21
31
24
16
Not at all Able
7
2
3
12
Not at all Able
25
42
27
15
Don't Know
2
1
2
2
Don't Know
14
8
14
15
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
81
75
Probably Vote but Still thinking
11
15
Undecided but Lean Toward
6
7
Don't Know
2
3
Michigan
September 27-29, 1972
511 Interviews
A-1
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
63%
26%
11%
+37%
511
Age
18-24 years
50
39
11
+14
59
25-34 years
58
33
9
+25
111
35-44 years
67
19
14
+48
109
45-54 years
68
22
10
+46
96
55-64 years
66
22
12
+44
63
65 years +
70
18
12
+52
69
Education
Less than high school
58
27
15
+31
107
High school graduate
65
22
13
+43
210
College
66
29
5
+37
189
Religion
Catholic
65
26
9
+39
145
Protestant
65
23
12
+42
297
Jewish
46
54
0
- 8
13
Union
Yes
53
34
13
+19
230
No
72
18
10
+54
274
Income
Under $5,000
52
35
13
+17
60
$5,000-$9,999
62,
24
14
+38
113
$10,000-$14,999
65
24
11
+41
128
$15,000 +
73
23
4
+50
129
Sex
Male
62
26
12
+36
257
Female
65
25
10
+40
254
Turnout
Definitely vote
67
24
9
+43
456
Probably vote
40
36
24
+ 4
44
May or may not vote
16
63
21
-47
6
Probably not vote
100
0
0
+100
1
Definitely not vote
18
0
82
+18
3
Geographic (Political)
Wayne
55
36
9
+19
137
Oakland
69
23
8
+46
70
Macomb
75
13
12
+62
43
Outstate
64
23
13
+41
261
Geographic (ADI)
Chicago
58
19
23
+39
9
Detroit
63
28
9
+35
287
Flint/Saginaw/Bay City
68
22
10
+46
76
Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo
61
30
9
+31
80
Lansing
75
4
21
+71
30
Marquette
66
19
15
+47
16
South Bend/Elkhart
59
12
29
+47
12
Michigan
September 27-29, 1972
511 Interviews
B-1
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
59%
26%
15%
Age
18-24 years
53
40
7
25-34 years
50
30
20
35-44 years
61
27
12
45-54 years
64
25
11
55-64 years
57
22
21
65 years +
72
15
13
Education
Less than high school
59
23
18
High school graduate
59
26
15
College
60
28
12
Religion
Catholic
62
22
16
Protestant
60
27
13
Jewish
16
57
27
Union
Yes
51
36
13
No
66
18
16
Income
Under $5,000
53
25
22
$5,000-$9,999
53
27
20
$10,000-$14,999
56
28
16
$15,000 +
71
26
3
Sex
Male
60
29
11
Female
59
23
18
Turnout
Definitely vote
63
24
13
Probably vote
28
37
35
May or may not vote
26
63
11
Probably not vote
0
100
0
Definitely not vote
45
55
0
Geographic (Political)
Wayne
50
37
13
Oakland
58
27
15
Macomb
69
14
17
Outstate
'63
22
15
?
Geographic (ADI)
Chicago
68
0
32
Detroit
55
31
14
Flint/Saginaw/Bay City
66
20
14
Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo
58
26
16
Lansing
80
6
14
Marquette
80
10
10
South Bend/Elkhart
53
24
23
Michigan
September 27-29, 1972
511 Interviews
V-2
C-1
ISSUES
Do you think Richard Nixon or George McGovern's policies would get
Prisoners of War released sooner?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
37
65
43
21
McGovern
24
9
15
39
Don't Know
39
26
42
40
Do you think the North Vietnamese are using prisoner release issue
to influence election?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
66
69
65
67
No
15
15
16
14
Don't Know
19
16
19
19
Do you know about Russian Grain Deal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
68
67
68
72
No
30
30
30
26
Don't Know
2
3
2
2
(511).
(130)
(183)
(121)
If yes, do you approve?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Approve
58
66
58
56
Disapprove
26
21
26
29
Don't Know
16
13
16
15
(342)
(87)
(124)
(87)
If yes, have you heard about scandal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
71
73
74
69
No
25
21
21
28
Don't Know
4
6
5
3
(342)
(87)
(124)
(87)
If yes, do you believe charge that exporters made excess
profit from inside information?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
57
44
54
68
No
13
26
10
10
Don't Know
30
30
36
22
(241)
(64)
(92)
(60)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
Tod Hullin called me to report that John has requested
that Ed Harper receive all the head to head trial heat
data, that he needs this data as part of the briefing
they are putting together for the Congressional Leader-
ship and Cabinet Meeting on Tuesday, October 10 at 8 a.m.
MacGregor and Ehrlichman are both to brief on the issues
and political situation.
You have previously indicated that only MacGregor,
Magruder, and Malek are to receive the exact trial heat
figures by state.
Should Ed Harper receive this trial heat data?
Yes
Visa No President he
S1 1019 Harper
ordered Haldenan
not to give the out
1pay
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL Polly Schedul.
State
du feeld
October 6, , 2972.
Proputed Delivery Dub
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Polling Schedule
Rollywable
CRP Surveys
The Teeter tentative schedule for Rolling Wave Telephone
Surveys is:
State
Polling Dates
Data Delivery
Ill.
10/5-6
10/9
Md.
10/4-5
10/6
Ohio
10/7-10
10/12
N.J.
10/7-10
10/12
Minn.
10/7-10
10/12
N.Y.
10/9-10
10/12
Cal.
10/9-10
10/12
The next series of surveys after October 12 has not been
scheduled.
National
ORC Private Surveys
The ORC National Surveys conducted for you are scheduled
every weekend between now and November 7, with the results
to be delivered each Monday in the afternoon.
- 2 -
Survey
Polling Dates
Delivery Dates
National Survey #2
10/6-8
10/9
National Survey #3
10/13-15
10/16
National Survey #4
10/20-22
10/23
National Survey #5
10/27-29
10/30
National Survey #6
11/3-5
11/6
Gallup Surveys
Conflicting reports have been received from Bob Teeter and
John Davies. As you know, Davies reports that Gallup is
interviewing now (Oct 1-6) with the results to be reported
October 15. Davies says Gallup will run trial heats weekly
until November 7. Bob Teeter talked with Paul Perry at
Gallup. Perry claims that Gallup will interview Oct 6-8 and
then do two more trial heat surveys at 10-day intervals.
Gallup may add a last minute survey if the margin begins to
narrow. Perry would not tell Teeter about any scheduled
release dates. Perry told Teeter that on Monday, October 9,
Gallup would release a college study. I have been trying
to reach John Davies to confirm this.
Harris
Colson was to receive the trial heats from Harris' mid-week
survey this morning. If Colson has Harris' schedule for trial
heats for the rest of the campaign, he has not told Dick Howard.
sepenate
mass 44-41-15
9/29
Wva 60-24-16
Wash. 53-32-15
63-19-18 LA-O
58-38-4
63-26-11
У
K
BALLOT
NATIONAL
ALABAMA
CALIFORNIA
CONNECTICUT
ILLINOIS
MARYLAND
MICHIGAN
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3
W2
CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
Nixon/Agnew
63
52
+11
62
63
-
1
53
48
+
5
67
54
+13
56
56
+
0
58
52
+ 6
55
45
+10
32
44
16
yy
30
28
18
McGovern/Shriver
31
32
1
18
23
-
5
37
42
-
5
23
37
-14
26
35
-
9
30
42
-12
37
45
-
8
-
Undecided
6 16 -10
20
14
+
6
10
11
-
1
10
10
+ 0
18
10
+
8
12
6
+6
8
10
-
2
Nixon/Agnew
59
61
53
61
53
57
54
McGovern/Shriver
30
18
36
21
25
29
34
Schmitz/Anderson
3
1
1
3
1
1
2
Undecided
9
19
8
15
20
13
9
(Calif. Only) Spock/Hobson
1
Definitely Nixon
42
51
38
42
41
43
34
Probably Nixon
12
9
9
12
9
10
12
Undecided/Lean
6
to Nixon
5
5
8
5
5
7
Completely Undecided
5
11
6
10
9
7
7
Undecided/Lean
6
to McGovern
2
4
6
4
4
4
Probably McGovern
8
4
9
5
6
7
11
Definitely McGovern 17
8
23
11
12
15
16
W3 Sample Size 1,011 1,500
800
1,000
600
800
600
800
W3 Interviewing Dates 9/5-9/16
9/5-9/12
9/5-9/11
9/5-9/11
9/5-9/13
9/5-9/8
9/5-9/7
62-28-10
57-33-10
63-28-9
x
53-36-11
BALLOT
MISSOURI
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
TEXAS
WISCONSIN
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
W3 W2 CHG
Nixon/Agnew
52
44
+8
62
49
+13
52
49
+ 3
60
56
+ 4
60
49
+11
64
54
+10
55
44
+11
27
31
22
28
33
yo
McGovern/Shriver
25
46
-21
31
42
A
30
42
-12
32 38 - 6
27
42
-15
24
35
-11
36
52 -16
-
Undecided
22
10
+12
8
9 - 1
18
9
+ 9
9
6
+
3
14
9
+5
12
11
+ 1
9
5 + 4
Nixon/Agnew
53
60
56
59
60
58
53
McGovern/Shriver
25
30
34
30
27
23
34
Schmitz/Anderson
1
1
0
1
2
2
2
Undecided
21
9
10
11
12
17
12
Definitely Nixon
35
42
38
39
41
47
33
Probably Nixon
10
10
12
11
11
12
14
Undecided/Lean
6
to Nixon
8
7
6
7
6
6
Completely Undecided
13
8
5
10
10
6
8
Undecided/Lean
to McGovern
4
5
6
5
4
3
5
Probably McGovern
6
6
10
8
8
4
9
Definitely McGovern
15
17
17
15
12
15
18
W3 Sample Size
800
800
1,000
800
800
800
600
W3 Interviewing Dates
9/5-9/7
9/5-9/11
9/5-9/9
9/5-9/6
9/5-9/14
9/5-9/10
9/5-9/7
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN s
SUBJECT:
Maryland Rolling Wave
Bob Teeter called with the Rolling Wave Maryland data:
Polling Dates
Nixon
McGovern
Und.
W3-Sep 5-16
58
30
12
O -Oct 4-5
53. (5)
29 (3)
18
58
32
10
These have been added to your Trial Heat Summary.
paren = leaver
fugure are without beaner for
Octib/72 uf ps W₃
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Polling Schedule
CRP Surveys
The Teeter tentative schedule for Rolling Wave Telephone
Surveys is:
State
Polling Dates
Data Delivery
Ill.
10/5-6
10/9
Md.
10/4-5
10/6
Ohio
10/7-10
10/12
N.J.
10/7-10
10/12
Minn.
10/7-10
10/12
N.Y.
10/9-10
10/12
Cal.
10/9-10
10/12
The next series of surveys after October 12 has not been
scheduled.
ORC Private Surveys
The ORC National Surveys conducted for you are scheduled
every weekend between now and November 7, with the results
to be delivered each Monday in the afternoon.
- 2 -
Survey
Folling Dates
Delivery Dates
National Survey #2
10/6-8
10/9
National Survey #3
10/13-15
10/16
National Survey #4
10/20-22
10/23
National Survey #5
10/27-29
10/30
National Survey #6
11/3-5
11/6
Gallup Surveys
Conflicting reports have been received from Bob Tester and
John Davies. As you know, Davies reports that Gallup is
interviewing now (Oct 1-6) with the results to be reported
October 15. Davies says Gallup will run trial heats weekly
until November 7. Bob Tester talked with Paul Perry at
Gallup. Perry claims that Gallup will interview Oct 6-8 and
then do two more trial heat surveys at 10-day intervals.
Gallup may add a last minute survey if the margin begins to
narrow. Perry would not tell Teeter about any scheduled
release dates. Perry told Teeter that on Monday, October 9,
Gallup would release & college study. I have been arying
to reach John Davies to confirm this.
Harris
Colson was to receive the trial heats from Harris' mid-week
survey this morning. If Colson has Harris' schedule for trial
heats for the rest of the campaign, he has not told Dick Howard.
GS/jb
Teeta
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
L
As standard procedure, we will never repoll a state
within the same week. In other words, Teeter wanting
to poll California right away was not a good idea. Make
sure you have a copy of what Teeter's final polling
strategy is through October 16th.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
L
You asked me who gets the information on the
rolling wave polls at 1701. They are as follows:
1. MacGregor
2. Magruder
3. Malek
NY.
4. Mitchell
Also Mitchell gives any information he has to
Bixby per our previous arrangement with him.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
L
You asked me the number of people we would be
polling in each state on the rolling wave polls.
In the large states like New York, California, and
Illinois, Teeter is insisting on a 500 sample. In
the smaller states like Maryland, perhaps even
New Jersey, he is holding the sample to 400.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 5, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Polling Matters
Wisconsin and Missouri
Bob Teeter submitted the Wisconsin and Missouri Rolling
Wave results (attached). Copies are being put in your
Wave III Summary Book.
Iowa
Teeter also submitted Iowa polling data, conducted by
the Des Moines Register and Tribune. Teeter says this
is a very reliable poll. The figures are being added
to the Ballot Summary chart so that you can compare them
NO
with the ORC Iowa poll.
Senate and Gubernatorial Results
The Senate Races chart in the Wave III Summary Book
contains all available Senate material, including those
where Teeter has shared results. The far right-hand
column indicates those states where there are joint
agreements.
There are five Gubernatorial races where we have polled.
The Missouri results for the Gubernatorial race appear
on the bottom of the first page of the Wave III and Rolling
Wave materials. The Texas and Illinois results from
Wave III also appear at the bottom of the first page. In
Indiana and Washington only the June Wave II data on the
Gubernatorial races is available.
Wisconsin
Sept. 30 - Oct. 2, 1972
313 Interviews
1968: +4
Trial Heats
V-4
McGovern
Without Leaners
49
32
19
With Leaners
53
36
11
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
90
60
28
McGovern
(With Leaners)
7
25
60
Undecided
3
15
12
Why Voting For
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Doing Good Job
36
34
43
32
Better Man/More Experience
35
31
35
41
Agree with his Policies
20
24
14
23
Republican
9
17
5
0
Trying to End War
2
3
0
5
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem
Agree with his Policies
27
100
21
26
Better Man/More Experience
23
0
21
24
Democrat
22
0
12
26
Need Change
15
0
13
14
For People
12
0
17
12
What Would Change Mind
Nixon Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
82
90
75
82
New Candidate
6
3
9
4
Nixon Changes
5
5
5
5
War Escalated
2
2
1
4
Other (Mixed)
5
0
10
5
McGovern Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
81.
100
75
84
New Candidate
6
0
8
4
War End
4
0
9
2
McGovern Changes
1
0
4
0
Other (Mixed)
5
0
4
6
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
54
31
15
Vietnam
50
37
13
Economy
40
45
15
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
57 (+ 1)
Taxes
16 (-16)
Economy
15 (+ 0)
Inflation
12 (-12)
Unemployment
11 (- 9)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
38
62
41
25
Very Able
16
3
9
28
Fairly Ablc
42
35
40
45
Fairly Able
33
23
28
42
Not Very Able
13
3
12
20
Not Very Able
18
25
27
10
Not at all Able
4
0
3
7
Not at all Able
22
43
23
11
Don't Know
3
0
4
3
Don't Know
11
6
13
9
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
77
69
Probably Vote but still thinking
7
15
Undecided but Lean Toward
16
14
Don't Know
0
2
Wisconsin
Sept. 30 - Oct. 2, 1972
313 Interviews
A-1
V-4
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total 100%
53%
36%
11%
+17%
313
Age
18-24 years
39
57
4
-18
47
25-34 years
53
40
7
+13
58
35-44 years
65
32
3
+33
51
45-54 years
43
36
21
+7
64
55-64 years
58
25
17
+33
45
65 years +
63
23
14
+40
44
Education
Less than high school
44
36
20
+ 8
57
High school graduate
57
31
12
+26
124
College
53
41
6
+12
130
Religion
Catholic
47
41
12
+ 6
125
Protestant
65
28
7
+37
146
Jewish
28
28
44
X
3
Union
Yes
43
49
8
6
117
No
59
28
13
+31
194
Income
Under $5,000
38
41
21
3
44
$5,000-$9,999
52
39
9
+13
90
$10,000-$14,999
62
34
4
+28
89
$15,000 +
59
33
8
+26
52
Sex
Male
52
34
14
+18
160
Female
55
36
9
+19
153
Turnout
Definitely vote
55
35
10
+20
280
Probably vote
41
47
12
6
19
May or may not vote
0
0
100
X
3
Probably not vote
0
52
48
X
5
Definitely not vote
66
34
0
X
5
Geographic (Political)
Milwaukee City
51
35
14
+16
45
Milwaukee Suburbs
60
30
10
+30
50
Racine/Kenosha/Rock/
Walworth
55
39
6
+16
40
Dane
23
59
18
-36
22
Rest of State
55
34
11
+21
156
Geographic (ADI)
Chicago
61
39
0
X
6
Green Bay
48
37
15
+11
59
La Crosse/Eau Claire
65
22
13
+43
24
Madison
32
54
14
-22
28
Milwaukee
57
33
10
+24
175
Minneapolis/St. Paul
71
29
0
X
7
Wausau/Rhinelander
25
75
0
X
7
Wisconsin
Sept. 30 - Oct. 2, 1972
313 Interviews
B-1
V-4
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total - 100%
54%
31%
15%
Age
18-24 years
34
43
23
25-34 years
57
33
10
35-44 years
53
26
21
45-54 years
44
41
15
55-64 years
62
22
16
65 years +
69
25
6
Education
Less than high school
46
41
13
High school graduate
59
27
14
College
52
32
16
Religion
Catholic
48
37
15
Protestant
64
22
14
Jewish
56
44
0
Union
Yes
47
42
11
No
57
26
17
Income
Under $5,000
40
33
27
$5,000-$9,999
49
36
15
$10,000-$14,999
57
34
9
$15,000 +
62
24
14
Sex
Male
53
35
12
Female
55
28
17
Turnout
Definitely vote
56
30
14
Probably vote
38
47
15
May or may not vote
35
65
0
Probably not vote
0
58
42
Definitely not vote
62
17
21
Geographic (Political)
Milwaukee City
48
28
24
Milwaukee Suburbs
51
32
17
Racine/Kenosha/Rock/
Walworth
68
29
3
Dane
26
36
38
Rest of State
56
33
11
Geographic (ADI)
Chicago
100
0
0
Green Bay
55
35
10
La Crosse/Eau Claire
62
26
12
Madison
35
33
32
Milwaukee
55
29
16
Minneapolis/St. Paul
56
29
15
Wausau/Rhinelander
36
64
0
Wisconsin
Sept. 30 - Oct. 2, 1972
313 Interviews
C-1
V-4
ISSUES
Do you think Richard Nixon or George McGovern's policies would get
Prisoners of War released sooner?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
35
63
36
22
McGovern
24
'6
18
36
Don't Know
41
31
46
42
Do you think the North Vietnamese are using prisoner release issue
to influence election?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
59
65
62
53
No
20
20
19
20
Don't Know
21
15
19
27
Do you know about Russian Grain Deal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
66
66
73
61
No
31
31
24
37
Don't Know
3
3
3
2
(313)
(65)
(114)
(91)
If yes, do you approve?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Approve
57
58
63
49
Disapprove
26
14
19
40
Don't Know
17
28
18
11
(208)
(43)
(84)
(55)
If yes, have you heard about scandal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
73
67
77
75
No
22
26
19
20
Don't Know
5
7
4
5
(208)
(43)
(84)
(55)
If yes, do you believe charge that exporters made excess
profit from inside information?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
57
31
46
80
No
.14
28
19
3
Don't Know
29
41
35
17
(152)
(29)
(65)
(41)
September 28-30, 1972
1968: +2
329 Interviews
Trial Heats
McGovern
V-4
Without Leaners
60
23
17
With Leaners
62
28
10
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
(With Leaners)
89
74
43
McGovern
(With Leaners)
6
13
45
Undecided
5
13
12
Why Voting For
Nixon
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Better Man/More Experience
43
54
42
40
Doing Good Job
25
23
26
26
Agree with his Policies
25
12
27
24
Republican
10
14
6
10
Trying to End War
4
7
3
2
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Agree with his Policies
31
100
20
30
Democrat
30
0
20
33
Better Man/More Experience
14
0
10
15
For People
10
0
10
11
Need Change
9
0
10
9
What Would Change Mind
Nixon Voters
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
80
87
84
72
New Candidate
7
5
5
10
Nixon Changes
3
2
2
4
War Escalated
1
0
2
2
Other (Mixed)
7
2
8
10
McGovern Voters
Tot.
Rep
T-S
Dem.
Nothing
75
0
90
74
War End
6
100
0
7
McGovern Changes
4
0
0
4
New Candidate
1
0
10
0
Other (Mixed)
17
100
0
17
Job Approval
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Job
62
25
13
Vietnam
59
28
13
Economy
46
39
15
National Issues (Open End)
Vietnam
55 (+ 3)
Economy
16 (+ 8)
Inflation
13 (- 9)
Unemployment
12 (- 4)
Crime
9 (-12)
Ability to Handle Job
Nixon
McGovern
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Very Able
47
72
59
32
Very Able
8
2
6
12
Fairly Able
37
21
27
47
Fairly Able
24
17
19
28
Not Very Able
7
2
10
8
Not Very Able
23
26
26
20
Not at all Able
7
2
4
11
Not at all Able
29
35
35
23
Don't Know
2
3
0
2
Don't Know
16
20
14
17
Commitment
Nixon
McGovern
Definitely Vote For
86
65
Probably Vote but still thinking
6
21
Undecided but Lean Toward
7
14
Don't Know
1
0
State Ballot
Governor
Edward L. Dowd
47 (+ 8)
CHRISTOPHER "KIT" BOND
41 (+ 2)
Undecided
12 (-10)
TG
Missouri
September 28-30, 1972
329 Interviews
A-1
v-y
BALLOTS
(With Leaners)
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Margin
Number
Total - 100%
62%
28%
10%
+34%
329
Age
18-24 years
62
35
3
+27
34
25-34 years
67
24
9
+43
67
35-44 years
59
30
11
+29
72
45-54 years
63
28
9
+35
66
55-64 years
53
21
26
+32
40
65 years +
66
28
6
+38
47
Education
Less than high school
55
24
'21
+31
83
High school graduate
64
26
10
+38
115
College
65
31
4
+34
128
Religion
Catholic
53
32
15
+21
82
Protestant
69
22
9
+47
208
Jewish
32
68
0
X
6
Union
Yes
59
30
11
+29
123
No
64
25
11
+39
205
Income
Under $5,000
60
23
17
+37
41
$5,000-$9,999
63
30
7
+33
78
$10,000-$14,999
61
29
10
+32
91
$15,000 +
67
23
10
+44
74
Sex
Male
63
30
7
+33
158
Female
61
25
14
+36
171
Turnout
Definitely vote
65
28
7
+37
284
Probably vote
52
26
22
+26
31
May or may not vote
27
22
51
X
11
Probably not vote
54
0
46
X
3
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
X
0
Geographic (Political)
St. Louis City
52
29
19
+23
38
St. Louis Suburbs
65
24
11
+41
103
Jackson County
62
32
6
+30
64
Outstate
63
27
10
+36
124
Geographic (ADI)
Jeplin/Pittsburg
83
17
0
X
9
Kansas City
58
35
7
+23
98
Ottumwa/Kirksville
100
0
0
X
5
Springfield
70
23
7
+47
27
St. Joseph
51
34
15
X
8
St. Louis
61
25
14
+36
178
Missouri
September 28-30, 1972
329 Interviews
B-1
V-4
NIXON JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Total 100%
62%
25%
13%
Age
18-24 years
56
39
5
25-34 years
64
22
14
35-44 years
61
25
14
45-54 years
69
23
8
55-64 years
61
23
16
65 years +
54
25
21
Education
Less than high school
60
19
21
High school graduate
66
23
11
College
59
31
10
Religion
Catholic
57
28
15
Protestant
68
20
12
Jewish
32
68
0
Union
Yes
55
29
16
No
66
22
12
Income
Under $5,000
66
24
10
$5,000-$9,999
59
30
11
$10,000-$14,999
59
23
18
$15,000 +
72
19
9
Sex
Male
61
29
10
Female
63
21
16
Turnout
Definitely vote
64
24
12
Probably vote
51
22
27
May or may not vote
53
29
18
Probably not vote
23
77
0
Definitely not vote
0
0
0
Geographic (Political)
St. Louis City
59
33
8
St. Louis Suburbs
61
22
17
Jackson County
59
28
13
Outstate
65
23
12
Geographic (ADI)
Joplin/Pittsburg
75
25
0
Kansas City
56
26
18
Ottumwa/Kirksville
74
0
26
Springfield
79
18
3
St. Joseph
51
39
10
St. Louis
62
25
13
Missouri
September 28-30, 1972
329 Interviews
V-4
Tin
C-1
ISSUES
Do you think Richard Nixon or George McGovern's policies would get
Prisoners of War released sooner?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Nixon
44
72
49
30
McGovern
20
5
12
30
Don't Know
36
23
39
40
Do you think the North Vietnamese are using prisoner release issue
to influence election?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
67
61
64
69
No
14
8
16
16
Don't Know
19
31
20
15
Do you know about Russian Grain Deal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
75
75
72
79
No
24
25
27
20
Don't Know
1
0
1
1
(329)
(65)
(88)
(120)
If yes, do you approve?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Approve
57
69
47
55
Disapprove
25
12
32
28
Don't Know
18
19
21
17
(243)
(49)
(63)
(95)
If yes, have you heard about scandal?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
76
74
76
78
No
17
18
13
16
Don't Know
7
8
11
6
(243)
(49)
(63)
(95)
If yes, do you believe charge that exporters made excess
profit from inside information?
Tot.
Rep.
T-S
Dem.
Yes
50
28
56
53
No
14
36
11
9
Don't Know
36
36
33
38
(183)
(36)
(48)
(74)
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
October 5, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Phone Polls
We solved the daytime interviewing problem with ORC as they
will not start interviewing until 4:00p m. on any future
telephone polls.
Our final delivery schedule from them for the five states they
are currently doing is:
Maryland
10/6
Illinois
10/9
Ohio
10/10
New Jersey
10/10
Minnesota
10/11
CONFIDENTIAL
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
October 4, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
Runt
SUBJECT:
Iowa Poll
In case you have not seen it, the Des Moines Register and Tribune
printed their latest Iowa Poll over the weekend. The Iowa Poll has
been very reliable in the past and enjoys an excellent reputation
in the survey research business.
The latest data was collected from September 22-24.
September
August
Nixon
64
54
McGovern
29
32
Other
1
0
Undecided
6
14
By type of area:
Metro
Cities/Towns
Rural/Farms
Nixon
64
67
56
McGovern
27
29
32
Undecided
9
4
12
The Poll also found that the Watergate would make no difference in
deciding how to vote to 81% of the Iowa electorate but that the
grain deal would make no difference to 66%. Twenty-five percent (25%)
of the farmers interviewed said that the grain deal would make them
less likely to vote Republican this Fall.
The data on the gubernatorial and senatorial races was:
Governor
Senator
Ray
63
Miller
58
Franzenburg
31
Clark
35
Undecided
6
Undecided
7
I also just received data from a Montana Poll that was completed last
week. It showed the President leading McGovern 54-24 with 22% undecided.
Der Resulter 10/1/72
Nixon Widens Lead 13 Points,
64-29 Over McGovern in Iowa
RESIDENT Nixon has increased his
charges that some Republican Party
lead over Senator George Mc-
members were involved in the 'bugght'
Govern from 22 points in mid-August to
of the Democratic Party headqueriers
35 points just six weeks before the elec-
in the Watergate building?"
tion, according to an Iowa Poll taken
Total Rep. Dem. Ind.
Sept 22.24
Yes, read or beard SOCS 92% $906 83%
If the election were today, 64 per cont
No, haven't read
of Iowans likely to vote would vote for
or heard
11
8
11
15
the Nixon-Angew ticket, 29 per cent for
"As of today, will any of the cuerts
McGovern-Shriver, with 7 per cent unde-
connected with the Watergate Affcir'
cided or other. A mid-August Iowa Poll
make you more Dkely or less likely to
reported 54 per cent for Nixon, 32 per
unte for the Niron-Agnew presidential
cent McGovern and 14 per cent unde-
NIXON
McGOVERN
ticket. or won't they make any difference
cided.
in how you vote?"
Most groups show increased support
dence are shown in the following:
Total Rep. Dem. Ind.
*for Nixon - except farmers, who sup-
City-
More likely to vote
port Nixon by 56 to 32 per cent, the
Metro* Town Farm
Nixon-Agnew
3%
5%
1%
3%
same as in August.
Nixon-Agnew
61%
6756
5606
Less likely
12
3
29
S
Voters under 30 years of age have
MeGovern-Shriver
27
23
32
No difference
S1
90
67
79
switched from McGovern to Nixon. The
Other
2
Undecided
4
2
3
9
President learls by 03 to 05 per cent
Undecided
7
4
12
*Cilies over 50,000.
"Ti.e Nizon Administration has on.
now. compared to a McGovern lead
of 47 to 37 per cent in August.
Democrats support McGovern 71 to 21
nounced the sale of U.S. grain to Russia
and China. Will any of the events con-
Another question measuring possible
per cent. with 8 DOB cent undecided. In
changes in voting between now and elec-
August. they favored McGovern 63 to 17,
nected with these grain sales make 1.0M
tion day indicntes that 10 per cent of
with is per cent undecided.
more likely or less likely to vote for the
Republicons favor Mixon 91 to 4 per
Nizon-Agnew ticket or won't they make
cent in the current poll. as compared with
any difference in how you vote?"
85 to 6 per cent 10 Accost. Among inde-
Total Rep. Dem. Ind.
THE IOWA POLL
More likely to vote
pendents. 57 per cent support Nixon and
Niven-Agnew
96h
12%
%
0%
27 per cent favor McGovern.
Nixon voters might vote for a different
Less likely
18
G
32
2:
On a scale of 1 to 10. likely voters
candidate; in August. 25 per cent of
No difference
66
70
53
61
raind the degree of interest they have in
Nixon voters expressed this view. In the
Undecided
:
6
10
-1
their presidential candidate winning the
latest survey, 20 per cent of McGovern
election, as shown in the following:
Significantly, one-fourth oi Iowa farm
voters say they might change their
Mc-
voters say that the grain sale will make
minds: in August, 31 per cent did.
Nixon Govern
them less likely to vote for the Repuali-
A total of 001 lowans 18 and over were
can ticket: oniv 9 per cent of farmers
Voters Voters
asked their presidential preference. with
Weak Interest (1-1)
6%
5'h
say they are more likely to vote 100 the
results reported from 408 most likely In
Moderate Interest (5-7)
15
33
Nixon-Agnew ticket.
vote, based on registration and intention
Strong Interest (8-10)
79
58
"In recent months, private citizen
to vote:
Ramsey Clark traveled to Ilentoi end
Three issues have been prominent rc-
"If the presidential election were In-
Pierro Salinger traveled to Paris in cis.
cently in the presidential race-the
day, which candidate word you cote
CHES the Victnam war with representa-
Watergate offeir, the grain sale to Rus-
for?" (Respondents marked their pre-
fines of North As of beary, will
sia. and Ramsey Clark's and Pierre Sal-
forence on C paper ballot and deposited
any of the onts connected with Cle k's
inger's trips to Handi and Paris regard-
it in a bellot bor provided by the inter-
or Salinger's time make 502 more Photy
ing the Victnam war.
viswer.)
or Less likely to time for the
The latest poil shows that the Water-
Shriter presidented ticket, or 10.1 JOY
Sept.
Aug.
gate aftair and the grain tale to Russia
make CHV difference 10 how you cor?"
23-24
0-14
create
ative TAX ction toward Nixon.
Total Hep. Dem. Ind.
Nixon-Agnew
0106
51%
and the Clark-Safinger WILLS create педа-
More likely to vote
McGovern-Shriver
20
32
tive reaction toward Metiovern. This is
McGovera-Sluriver % 20 16% to
Other
1
-
revealed in the following questions, re-
Less Elety
15
21
I
15
Undecided
6
14
ported among hkely voters:
No difference
76
74
78
is
Results of the September poll by resi-
"Hore you read or heard about the
Undecided
3
3
2
6
ToH
10/3
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
October 3, 1972
MEMORANDUM E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By EmPrise NAR , Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER R Runt
SUBJECT:
Telephone Polling
Attached is the questionnaire we are going to use beginning
Wednesday for our telephone polling. We will deliver the results
on Michigan and California to you Wednesday by noon and the
reports on Wisconsin and Missouri either late tomorrow or early
Thursday a.m. depending on when ORC gets them to us.
Subject to ORC's performance, which has not been very good on
the first group of phone polls, our schedule for the next 10
days will be:
Sample
Interviewing
Data
State
Size
Dates
Delivery
Illinois
500
10/4-5
10/6 -10/9 U
Maryland
500
10/6-7
10/9
Ohio - 10/10
500
10/9-10
10/11-
New Jersey
500
10/11-12
10/13-
Minnesota
500
10/13-14
10/16
ny-
After this wave we should re-do New York, California and Michigan.
However, if we see any significant movement either in the above
states or in the Harris poll which is now being done, I think we
should consider doing either fast personal interview studies with
secret ballots or panel studies in at least these three states.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Polling Matters
Poll Summary
During the next 34 days, we will be receiving a
substantial amount of polling materials. You
mentioned on October 3, that you had too many
binders full of polling materials. To consolidate
the relevant data and establish a system for
keeping you up to date, I recommend the following:
1) That the attached Summary Book be the basic
document for quick reference in your office, as
well as on trips. It contain:
a) the Ballot Summary sheet of all state by
state trial heats including available Senate
race data;
b) all Nixon/McGovern National trial heats;
c) selected trends for your standard Poll
Book;
d) the ORC National Telephone Survey #1
Receiving Memorandum;
e) the Wave III National personal interview
poll and questionnaire, the Wave III state
summary demographics; and,
f) all separately polled states (Iowa,
Massachussets, West Virginia, and Washington);
2) That you keep in your office (but do not take
on trips) Wave III Complete Version materials,
as well as your regular Poll Book;
3) That all other polling materials, including
-2-
Wave I, Wave II, the Image Study, and the Issue
Study be kept in my office, with all other
pollingmaterials.
AGREE
DISAGREE
COMMENT
Teeter Key State Telephone Surveys - Polling Wave
In the Summary Book, New York and Pennsylvania have
been added. Later today, California and Michigan
will be added. As each key state survey is received,
it will be added to the Summary Book but will not
replace the Wave III Personal Interview surveys.
Gallup Surveys
The transcript of my most recent conversation with
John Davies is attached at Tab A.
To summarize:
1) Sunday's (Oct. 8) release will be on Watergate,
based on September 22-25 interviewing. The awareness
according to Gallup is 52%. This compares with the
ORC - Ag 29-31 result of 57% and the Wave III -
Sept 5-16 result of 70%. The Watergate issue does not
swing voters to McGovern.
2) Vietnam and the cost of living are the top
problems (27% each) while corruption is considered
a top problem by only 3%.
3) The next scheduled trial heat will be released
on Sunday, October 15 based on key precinct interviews
conducted Oct 1-6.
4) Alec Gallup gave the Washington Post the exclusive
interview that appeared last Sunday.
-3-
Miscellaneous Matters
1) You asked whether Harris and Gallup figures
are based on registered voters and include
leaners. Bob Teeter talked with Lou Harris and
Paul Perry at Gallup. His summary is attached
at Tab B. It confirms that Gallup uses only
registered voters. However, there is a conflict
between what Perry told Teeter and what Davies told
me. Davies claims that Gallup first used the
secret ballot, which is comparable to the leaner
question on a telephone survey, on half of the
Aug 24-27 interviews. In any event, all Gallup
trial heats for the next 34 days will be among
registered voters using secret ballots. Harris
does not specify whether he interviews only
registered voters. Instead, he reports only
results from "likely voters," which he defines
as a 1968-1970 voter, a registered. voter, or
between 18-24 years of age. The last category
makes Harris' results suspect because most pollsters
estimate only half of this category will vote on
November 7. Teeter will pursue the question when
he has lunch with Colson and Harris on Friday, when
the Harris trial heat data is expected.
2) To assure comparability of the Wave III, Rolling
Wave, and ORC National Surveys with Harris and
Gallup, I have used registered voters including
leaners. This change is noted by (R) in the books.
3) The ORC National Surveys will begin on Monday,
October 16 reporting full demographics on registered
voters, and the trial heat demographic sheets will
have computer printed demographics from the past
three surveys.
A
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - October 4, 1972
S - How are you?
D - Hi, Gordon, how are you? I've got something that I think is going
to be of tremendous interest to you people.
S - Good.
D - It's for release Sunday, October 8 and it's going out, I hope, if
we get the bugs out of the thing, this afternoon. Well anyway,
let me give you the gist of it. It's a story on this Watergate
issue. What response the public has to it, and just how important
the voters of the country feel the corruption issue is. And let
me just read you the way I have the lead - it might change - but
at least it's -- "Although Senator George McGovern is hitting
hard on the theme that the Nixon Administration is corrupt, only
a fraction of the electorate names corruption in government as
one of the nation's top problems - that's 3%. In addition, only
half of all voters interviewed in the latest survey say they've
heard or read about the Watergate incident concerning the alleged
bugging of the Democratic Party's Headquarters in Washington, and
fewer still can play back the important details of the incident.
Finally, opinion is overwhelmingly on the side that the incident
is not a strong reason for voting for McGovern -- both among
Republicans and Democrats interviewed." Vietnam and the high
cost of living are still the top problems -- 27% each. But let
me get to this Watergate thing here. Wait a minute. "52% of
all persons interviewed say they have heard or read about the
incident. Still fewer - 29% -- can indicate at least some knowledge
- 2 -
D - of what is alleged to have occurred. And among those who have
heard or read about the incident, 8 in 10 say that Watergate is
not a strong reason for voting for McGovern. Even among Democrats
in the survey, opinion is 3 to 1 on the side that the issue is not
a strong enough reason for voting for the Democratic nominee.
Furthermore, McGovern can expect to win back few Democratic defectors
on the basis of the Watergate incident. Only one Democratic defector
in 20 feels that the issue is a strong reason for voting for McGovern."
S - Geez ...
D - Isn't that something?
S - That's amazing,
D - Here he's spent 3 weeks banging this out - and it's gotten him
absolutely nowhere.
S - Yeah - cause there's nothing there.
D - Nope.
S - Very interesting.
D - It's a funny thing, you know, there may be nothing there but it's
the kind of thing that very often the public can latch on to. Remember
back early in 1952 when Communism, Korea and corruption were the big
issues. What you have to do is talk about it and you're guilty.
S - That's right. No matter what the facts are.
D - But it ain't hitting home.
S - That's really -- that will be Sunday's release?
D - Right.
S - Gee, that's great. Got another minute?
D - Sure.
- 3 -
S - Any mention that you might be able to figure out what the schedule
was going to be for the trial heats. You said a weekly or more
often or something.
D - It'll be more often. I would expect that it would be for release
next Sunday.
S - A week from Sunday?
D - Right.
S - OK. Would be the next one, And that would be conducted over this
weekend?
D - No. That would have been conducted -- let's see - let me figure
my dates here probably from the 1st to the 6th. Right about now.
S - I see.
D - We're doing that Special Election Precinct Survey that I told you
about a couple of weeks ago.
S - Oh, I see.
D - But it takes longer to get in and analyze because
...
S - But that would be on trial heats?
D - Oh yes. Only.
S - Only?
D - Right.
S - Very interesting.
D - In other words, that's sort of a preamble to our final election report.
We use this as a checkpoint. The sample's larger there are about
3,000 interviews.
S - Yeah.
- 4 -
D - So we'll be able to do much more on breakdowns and so on.
S If you could let me know as soon as you get that. That would be
appreciated.
D - Will do. But that's going to be another problem because I don't
think I'll know that until the very last minute because this is
the kind of stuff that the boys spend hours hammering over and
we'll probably wire the copy so I'll probably know the minute
it's wired. You'll probably get the wire a half an hour later
anyway.
S You know that's another problem. We didn't get that wire last
Saturday.
D - You didn't get the wire?
S - Nope. The only way we found out was from you.
D - Gee, that's odd.
S - It is odd. Cause we went through a whole thing of setting up
Western Union and pre-paying and all this other stuff and then
we never got it.
D - You didn't get it because I called you. That could possibly be.
I don't know Cause I told them that I was going to ring you
and maybe they pulled the wire, I don't know. But I'll check on
that - I'll make sure that you're still on this list.
S - Yeah, cause we are full subscribers and so forth.
D - Right.
S - Listen, on another question. Did Alec Gallup include the information
in the wire - his comments, his quotes - or was that a special Post,
- 5 -
S - Washington Post interview that they
...
D - Special Washington Post.
S - Special interview.
D - Right.
S - OK. Were the polling dates on this Watergate thing the same as the
last one?
D - Yes
S - There were two conflicting dates given - was it really 23- 24, or
was it 24-27?
D - 24-27.
S - 24-27. OK. Are you going to have one for this Thursday?
D - Let me see. Hang on for one second, Gordon, and I'll see if I can
get a hold of it. Let's see - it's for Friday, Gordon.
S - For Friday.
D - Right. Went into the mail late last night. Let's see. The groups -
let's see - Nixon leads in all groups but two - with the exception
of Blacks and Jews - I've got all of the demographics - you want
the demographics? That's essentially what it is here.
S - Great.
D - All right. Suppose I just give you Nixon-McGovern by groups and
you can add the undecided in afterwards.
S - OK.
D - OK. Nationally - 61-33
S -- This is all from the August 24-27? OK.
D - Republicans -- 95-4; Democrats - 32-61 (down from 40, incidentally,
- 6 -
D - or 37 or whichever one it was.
S - OK,
D - Independents - 67-25; Catholics - 52-40; Protestants 70-26;
Labor union families - 52-42; 18-29 yr olds - 52-46 (that's down
a bit too); 30-49 yr olds - 65-29; 50 and older - 62-31; whites
67-28; Blacks - 10-82; College - 61-35; High school - 65-30;
grade school - 51-41; Professional and business - 68-29; clerical
and sales - 62-32; manual workers - 57-35; Men - 58.36; women -
64-30; south - 70-24; non-south - 59-36.
S - That's very interesting. That's great. We'll compare that with
our information. Let me ask you another question on the way the
trial heat questions are asked.
D - All right.
S - I noticed in the releases that you always say Registered voters.
D - Right.
S - Have you - have all trial heats from the first of the year always
been Registered voters? Or did you use total public?
D -- Registered voters.
S -- Only Registered voters? None intend to register or will register
or anything like that?
D - Right.
S - Only Registered voters? Now on the leaners. You do that - did you
force down the no opinion on the August 24-27 poll by the secret
ballot or a follow-up question? Cause I know
...
D -- Half the sample we used the secret ballot. The other half we used
- 7 -
D - a non-secret ballot.
S - And that was
...
D - That's a test on our part to see what difference there is.
S - And that was to force down the no opinion?
D - Correct.
S - And that was the first poll that you tried that on.
D - Right.
S - Are you going to do that for the rest?
D - Right. All the way through. But total secret ballot all the way
through from now
...
S - Total secret ballot?
D - Right.
S - OK. Let's see. Anything else of note?
D - I can't think of anything.
S - All right. I appreciate this information, seriously.
D - No problem.
S - It will help all of us and it will be kept in the strictest confidence.
D --- Very find, Gordon.
S -- Good John.
D - Just as long as we all understand what the problems are cause I hate
to be a bastard about it.
S -- Right.
D OK?
S - Very good.
D - Ok, Gordon, bye.
S - Bye.
p
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
October 3, 1972
By EMPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER RUT
SUBJECT:
Gallup and Harris Sample and Filter
Procedures
Gordon Strachan asked me to check on the sample and filtering
procedure for the Gallup and Harris surveys and if they have
changed them as we get closer to the election.
Gallup's primary sample unites are based on a universe of all
adult citizens 18 years of age and over. He then filters for
registered voters and interviews only registered voters for his
political surveys. His head to head data is collected by using
the oral question and a leaner follow up for the undecided. His
published results are a combination of these.
He does not cut his data by likely voters or turnout.
He has not varied these procedures at all throughout this year
but may report both likely voters and all voters in his last
one or two polls which will both be done after October 15.
Harris interviews only what he considers likely voters. In order
to qualify as a likely voter a respondent must have voted in 1968-70,
be registered to vote in 1972 or be between 18-24 years of age.
He also included leaners in his published data and has not yet
weighed for probably turnout but will closer to the election.
Harris says he has not varied this technique throughout this year.
Poll sumar
Wdd, wash towa, etc
are to dley mut wise
add small sts.
ala-
/
all Sen data either Teeter
- w/ who we paid
or anything else
Gois
2
ala - sen no Gr
Cal - nothing
wash #2
Con -
"
orre wraport mo
Iowa
Indor
TX
ohw3
Galley - 2 Onest week in field
rownd
2 more interviews at 10 day / Lost sun
one
before eli
3
no release Dates
4
college study - men
5
Last we may de estra
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
MEMORANDUM
E.O. 12065, Section 5-22-80 6-102
October 5, 1972
EMPRISE
NARS,
Date
By
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER RUNT
SUBJECT:
Phone Polls
The question has been raised as to why we are slipping slightly
in the national polls but have either held steady or gained slightly
in the priority state telephone polls ORC has done during the last
week
One reason for this difference may be that our leads were so large
in the southern, praire and mountain states that any shift to McGovern
occurred there first. In several of these states our leads were 40-50%
and McGovern was running far below the Democratic base vote.
Also, as I indicated to you earlier we have had a problem with ORC
doing too large a proportion of their interviewing in the daytime
on the first few phone polls. This clearly inflated the Michigan
data and may have effected the others to a lesser degree. We have
independent data on Los Angeles and Orange Counties which we have
compared to the Los Angeles and Orange County portion of the ORC
study and it is very close. The problem has been solved by requiring
ORC to use more lines and do all their interviewing after 5:00p.m.
The five states we are now doing should give us a more reliable
comparison between our priority states and the national polls.
I have compared our Wave III national poll with the latest Harris,
and the latest Gallup and while the demographic breaks do not always
match up, it appears that our slippage has been fairly uniform across
demographic groups. It appears to be just slightly greater among
those groups that are traditionally Democratic (low income and education,
Catholics, young voters) but the differences are not statistically
significant.