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This file contains:
Handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: The President. From: H. R. Haldeman. RE: Voter turnout. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
The American political report. Pre-election survey. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
To: Bruce Kehrli. From: William E. Timmons. RE: House Races. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Prepare talking papers for Haldeman. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/11/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey. With newspapers attached; Western Union is Upset About Nixon 'Telegram'. And article from National observer. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey. With Newspaper articles attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Status GOTV. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
Voting numbers by state. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGRegor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Final canvassing results. Results attached. 17pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Final canvassing results. With results attached. 15pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Bob (?) From: (?) RE: Mistake on the statistics. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. Through: Jeb S. Magruder. From: L. Robert Morgan. RE: Canvass/Telephone Sheets. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Jeb S. Magruder. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Campaign windup report. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From:Gordon Strachan. RE: Jock Whitney. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: California endorsements. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Presidential endorsements. With draft endorsement attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Campaign Reading. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Canvassing Results. With results attached. 18pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Clark MaCgregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Report on "Get out the vote". With report attached. 9pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: John Enrlichman. From: John C. Whitaker. RE: Post-election thoughts. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
Second Evan-Novak Political Forum schedule. 8pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/31/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Paul R. Jones. RE: "Black Blitz" 3 Newspaper articles attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
Talking paper for political meeting. RE: Senator Harry Byrd and Campaign advertising. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Effortd to notify the field about the President's address. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Thurmond re-election campaign. With orignial memo from Harry Dent attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Gordon. From: Pat McKee. RE: Copy of Presidential telephone calls memo. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. Through: Dwight L. Chapin. From: Stephen Bull. RE: Presidential Telephone calls. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/30/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Presidential approval. With original memo attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
Electoral vote forecast as of 10/25/1972. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Teeter possible update on election analysis. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Larry Higby. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Benham's most recent election predictions. With report attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
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26146104
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WHSF: Contested, 42-6
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146104
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 42-6
description
This file contains:
Handwritten notes. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
To: The President. From: H. R. Haldeman. RE: Voter turnout. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
The American political report. Pre-election survey. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 11/6/1972
To: Bruce Kehrli. From: William E. Timmons. RE: House Races. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Prepare talking papers for Haldeman. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/11/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey. With newspapers attached; Western Union is Upset About Nixon 'Telegram'. And article from National observer. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/3/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey. With Newspaper articles attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Status GOTV. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
Voting numbers by state. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGRegor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Final canvassing results. Results attached. 17pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Final canvassing results. With results attached. 15pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/6/1972
To: Bob (?) From: (?) RE: Mistake on the statistics. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 11/6/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. Through: Jeb S. Magruder. From: L. Robert Morgan. RE: Canvass/Telephone Sheets. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Jeb S. Magruder. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Campaign windup report. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
To: H. R. Haldeman. From:Gordon Strachan. RE: Jock Whitney. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: California endorsements. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Harry S. Dent. RE: Presidential endorsements. With draft endorsement attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Campaign Reading. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Canvassing Results. With results attached. 18pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: Clark MaCgregor. From: Fred Malek. RE: Report on "Get out the vote". With report attached. 9pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: John Enrlichman. From: John C. Whitaker. RE: Post-election thoughts. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
Second Evan-Novak Political Forum schedule. 8pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/31/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Paul R. Jones. RE: "Black Blitz" 3 Newspaper articles attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
Talking paper for political meeting. RE: Senator Harry Byrd and Campaign advertising. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/2/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark MacGregor. RE: Effortd to notify the field about the President's address. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Thurmond re-election campaign. With orignial memo from Harry Dent attached. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/2/1972
To: Gordon. From: Pat McKee. RE: Copy of Presidential telephone calls memo. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/1/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. Through: Dwight L. Chapin. From: Stephen Bull. RE: Presidential Telephone calls. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/30/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Presidential approval. With original memo attached. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/31/1972
Electoral vote forecast as of 10/25/1972. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 10/25/1972
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE: Teeter possible update on election analysis. 2pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/26/1972
To: Larry Higby. From: Gordon Strachan. RE: Benham's most recent election predictions. With report attached. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/27/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
6
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes. 1 pg.
42
6
10/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: The President. From: H. R. Haldeman.
RE: Voter turnout. 1pg.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Report
The American political report. Pre-election
survey. 4pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Bruce Kehrli. From: William E.
Timmons. RE: House Races. 10pgs.
42
6
5/11/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE:
Prepare talking papers for Haldeman. 2pgs.
42
6
11/3/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey.
With newspapers attached; Western Union is
Upset About Nixon "Telegram'. And article
from National observer. 6pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Gallup Pre-election survey.
With Newspaper articles attached. 5pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek.
RE: Status GOTV. 4pgs.
42
6
Campaign
Report
Voting numbers by state. 3pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report.
1pg.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Page 1 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGRegor. From: Fred Malek.
RE: Final canvassing results. Results
attached. 17pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Malek's canvassing report.
1pg.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek.
RE: Final canvassing results. With results
attached. 15pgs.
42
6
11/6/1972
Campaign
Letter
To: Bob (?) From: (?) RE: Mistake on the
statistics. 1pg.
42
6
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. Through: Jeb S.
Magruder. From: L. Robert Morgan. RE:
Canvass/Telephone Sheets. 1pg.
42
6
Campaign
Memo
To: Jeb S. Magruder. From: Clark
MacGregor. RE: Campaign windup report.
2pgs.
42
6
9/28/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From:Gordon Strachan.
RE: Jock Whitney. 1pg.
42
6
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: California endorsements. 1pg.
42
6
10/31/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Harry S. Dent.
RE: Presidential endorsements. With draft
endorsement attached. 2pgs.
42
6
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Campaign Reading. 2pgs.
42
6
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MacGregor. From: Fred Malek.
RE: Canvassing Results. With results
attached. 18pgs.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Page 2 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
6
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Clark MaCgregor. From: Fred Malek.
RE: Report on "Get out the vote". With
report attached. 9pgs.
42
6
10/31/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: John Enrlichman. From: John C.
Whitaker. RE: Post-election thoughts. 3pgs.
42
6
10/31/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
Second Evan-Novak Political Forum
schedule. 8pgs.
42
6
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Paul R. Jones.
RE: "Black Blitz" 3 Newspaper articles
attached. 4pgs.
42
6
11/2/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Talking paper for political meeting. RE:
Senator Harry Byrd and Campaign
advertising. 1pg.
42
6
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Clark
MacGregor. RE: Effortd to notify the field
about the President's address. 1pg.
42
6
11/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Thurmond re-election
campaign. With orignial memo from Harry
Dent attached. 2pgs.
42
6
11/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon. From: Pat McKee. RE: Copy of
Presidential telephone calls memo. 1pg.
42
6
10/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. Through: Dwight L.
Chapin. From: Stephen Bull. RE:
Presidential Telephone calls. 4pgs.
42
6
10/31/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman. From: Gordon
Strachan. RE: Presidential approval. With
original memo attached. 5pgs.
42
6
10/25/1972
Campaign
Report
Electoral vote forecast as of 10/25/1972. 1pg.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Page 3 of 4
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
6
10/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon Strachan. From: L. Higby. RE:
Teeter possible update on election analysis.
2pgs.
42
6
10/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Larry Higby. From: Gordon Strachan.
RE: Benham's most recent election
predictions. With report attached. 4pgs.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Page 4 of 4
LBJ pheral in64
# voted
# " Da LBJ
Estem of # on 11/7
44, 025, 2 652
44/02/2321 79
980, 680
69,536
762450 659 7
62,500 = 94% of
$04,274,000
A
42 237 912
23, 7, Eygs 347
69 735 259
44', 2'3's ?' 912
27, 498, 3 347
1, 000, 000
72 736 259
72, 478 = 94%
October 26, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
H.R. HALDEMAN
SUBJECT:
Voter Turnout
The following are figures for voter turnout based on the per-
centage of registered voters who voted in Presidential elections
going back to 1932.
The statistic that is usually quoted to describe turnout is the
percentage of the voting age adult population (not necessarily
registered) who voted. These figures are included in paren-
theses.
Regis
celigible
1932
*
(53%)
1952
80.1%
(62.6%)
1936
*
(57%)
1956
77,4%
(60.1%)
1940
*
(59%)
1960
818%
(64.0%)
1944
*
(54%)
1964
82.9%
(62.9%)-
1948
74%
(52%)
1968
79.8%
(61.8%)
*These figures are now being researched and should be available
later today.
Vol. II, No. 3
The
November 6, 1972
American
Kevin Phillips, Editor
Political
Published by the American Political Research Corporation
-4720 Mom yomery Avenue
Betherds, A diviand 20014
Telephone e (301) 654-4990
Report
PRE-ELECTION SURVEY
The Presidency: With only the size of Richard Nixon's landslide still
in doubt, top Unite House strategists privately are hoping for 60% of the vote.
They may be right. Dwight Eisenhower got 57.4% in 1956, and RMN
looks even stronger. Compared with 1956, the GOP vote may lag a bit in the
North, but huge Southern and Border gains should more-than-compensate. Given
NcCovern's weakness, a Nixon showing of less than 56-57% would be inauspicious.
Should RMN get less than 57% of the vote, APR believes he will have failed to
fully mobilize U.S. anti-McGovern sentiments.
Some local polls hint at a GOP victory of surprise magnitude. One
is the late October New York Daily News survey showing a 64-36% Nixon win in
New York State, with RMN also becoming the first GOP candidate since Calvin
Coolidge to carry New York City! Turnout is probably the key to any major up-
ward or downward variation from the 57-58% level. As of early November, most
experts and indices are predicting a relatively low turnout, perhaps only 60%
of those of eligible age.
Four years ago, 73 million persons voted (62% of the eligibles).
This year, with the potential electorate swollen by newly enfranchised youth,
experts are estimating a turnout of 78-86 million (56-62%). Prediction is
difficult (and the experts are all over the lot) because of a huge final-hour
"undecided" bloc which includes many registrants unsure whether they even want
to go to the polls. Anti-McCovern Democrats form the bulk of the "undecided."
Many are hawks. If they stay home, it might trim the Nixon vote, but local
GOP candidates would profit.
On the state-by-state basis, McGovern is in bad shape. On April 10,
APR predicted a Nixon-McGovern race would see the District of Columbia as the
only "safe McGovern" area, with Massachusetts leaning to the South Dakotan.
That is the way it has worked out. If RMN gets 57-58% of the vote, McGovern
will carry D.C. and Massachusetts. But if the Nixon vote climbs to 60%, Mas-
sachusetts (20% more Democratic than the nation in 1968) will be close. States
like Wisconsin, Oregon, California and South Dakota shouldn't be tight unless
RIN dips to 567 or 50.
Codgress: House and Senate races could be the big sleepers, and
whatever happens in these contests, the result will be historic. If RMN wins
by 00-61%, the 007, on the basis of past precedents, ought to take over both
Houses of Congress. Thus, should the President go this high, while the GOP
fails to win Congress, it will signal a) ticket-splitting far above 1956 and
1964 levels and/or b) Administration failure to give local candidates even
the usual back-up.
Several basic technical situations are bolstering the GOP. Chief
among them is this: In virtually every major state, from New York and New Jer-
©19/2. Public J Siwarkly by the American Political Research Corporation at 535 4 V.I. Reproduction or quotation without specific permission is arohibited by law.
sey to California, the top-of-the-ticket impetus is Republican. Coinciden-
tally, there are fewer important Senate and gubernatorial races in the big
states than there have been in any presidential year in memory. There is not
at single favored and popular Democratic governor or Senator (or challenger) to
bring big state voters back to the Democratic line after backing RMN. On the
contrary, the few statowide candidates with impetus are also Republicans:
Senators Clifford Case (N.J.), Charles Percv (I11.) and to a lesser extent
Robert Griffin (Mich.) and John lover (Texas). Strong gubernatorial candidate
Kit Bond will also give the GOP slate a heavy 1-2 impetus in Missouri, In New
York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and California, there are no gubernatorial
or Senate races. Should RMN win big, the top-of-the-ticket impetus, uninter-
rupted by any big name Democratic incumbents, could be a potent scythe.
The House of Representatives: Forget any analyses that find a par-
allel in the Bisenhower landslide's failure to give the GOP the House. If
the GOP wins as many Northern House seats as in 1956, they will take control.
Talk about the lack of presidential coattails in congressional races is also
wrong. As the chart shows, the number of Republicans elected to the House
since 1948 from outside the South has varied quite closely with the party
presidential vote.
Republican Share of the Northern Presidential
Vote and Northern Congressional Strength
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
GOP Share of Northern Major
Party Presidential Vote
49%
57%
58%
50%
37%
50%
Number of COP Congressmen
from 38 states excluding
South and Kentucky
167
213
192
166
123
163
The correlation is obvious. With 57-58% of the presidential vote,
the GOP has won 192-213 of the roughly 325 Northern House seats. When the
GOP presidential vote in the North dipped to 49-50%, the GOP share of House
seats fell to 163-167. In the disastrous year of 1964, when Barry Goldwater
got 37% of the Northern presidential vote, the GOP won only 123 non-Southern
House seats! A big presidential vote means coattails. For those who doubt
that 1956 was such a year, the chart below shows how the 1956-1960 presiden-
tial vote slippage in key states was matched by congressional vote slippage
(i.e., lost ccuttails).
1956-1960 Decline in GOP Share of Presidential and Congressional Vote
Pres.
Cong.
Fres.
Cong.
R.I.
-22.0%
-15.0%
Vt.
-13.5%
-10.2%
Mass.
-19.9
-12.2
Md.
-12.7
-8.1
Conn.
-17.4
-14.0
Ill.
-9.7
-5.1
N.J.
-15.8
-7.3
Fa.
-7.8
-4.4
N.Y.
-13.8
-7.6
Ohio
-7.8
-3.2
2
Press allegations that Eisenhower had no 1956 coattails are simply
wrong. The GOP did well in the Northern congressional vote, and would have
carried the House if they had elected the Dixie House members in office to-
day. The key to 1956's shortfall is that there was still no Southern con-
gressional opportunity. We belabor this point, with statistics and all, to
show that a failure in 1972 would not be supported by previous precedents,
but would represent an unprecedented phenomenon of tichat-splitting and White
House avoidance of local candidates. Back in 1956, Eisenhower helped elect
192 Northern Republicans, while only nine of the roughly 110 Southerners
elected to Congress were Republicans. Since then, the GOP has broken through
in Dixie. The Confederacy and Kentucky nov send 29 GOP representatives to
Congress, and the Mixon Dixie landslide taking shape will be the first since
1944, and the first Republican sweep of the South in history. Strategists
expect at least 35-40 Southern GOP congresswen in 1973.
Thus, should a Nixon landslide of 55-57% of the vote in the North
fail to elect 180-185 Northern GOP congressmen, it would be an unprecedented
coattail miscarriage. In light of the numbers set forth above, district-by-
district analyses do not seem too useful. To be sure, a dozen or so seats
can be singled out as likely to change hands in all but the most unsual cir-
cumstances. However, the real story of 1972 is likely to be written by the
overall tide *or lack of it. States like Connecticut, New Jersey, Indiana,
Illinois and Missouri, where there is either unusual straight party voting or
unusual GOP strength at the top-of-the-ticket could produce some surprises.
Analysts often use a shorthand of five seats a percentage point in exploring
the impact of presidential victories on congressional seats. Thus, the dif-
ference between a 52% Nixon victory in the North and a 57% win would be great.
Keep this regional distinction in mind, too. While LBJ's 1964 landslide only
added 38 net Democratic House seats, there were two opposite tides: the Demo-
crats picked up 45 in the North and Outer South and lost 7 in the Deep South.
Had a nationwide tide been involved (like Nixon's) the upheaval could have
been 50 seats in the same direction.
The Senate: Presidential coattails are not so strong in the Senate,
but they do play a role. In 1964, for example, there were 25 Democrats up
and 9 Republicans. Thanks to LBJ's landslide, all of the 25 Democratic in-
cumbents won except interim appointee Pierre Salinger in California. Of the
9 Republicans, 3 lost and 5 others got less than 53% of the vote. The land-
slide cost the GOP such close races as Taft (Ohio), Keating (N.Y.), Baker
(Tenn.), Bush (Texas), Wilkinson (Okla.) and Laxalt (Nev.).
This year, there are a lot of close races, and several will proba-
bly be decided by whether the local Nixon majority is 55% or 58%. In fact,
the extraordinary number of close races increases the likelihood that presi-
dential voting will play an important role. Many more Senate seats have wound
up in doubt than observers had expected in June or July. Of the 19 GOP seats at
stake, party strategists were originally concerned about only three or four.
Now the list is longer. On the tight and nervous list are: Boggs (Delaware),
Nunn (Ky.), Hirsch (S.D.) and Texas' Tower (while GOP polls show Tower pulling
away, he is out of money and nobody trusts the polls). Fairly tight, but less
apprehensively so, are the races of Griffin (Mich.), McClure (Idaho), Hatfield
(Cregon) and South Carolina's Thurmond (a contest that has narrowed considerably
thanks to Wallace's endorsement of Democrat Nick Zeigler, whose race is being
THE out of South Carolina Gov. John West's office). Last minute nerves are al-
so being felt in the camps of Cordon Allott (Colo.) and Jack Miller (Iowa), both
of whom are ahead only 10% or SO (less than earlier) in their own polls.
3
Of the 14 Democratic seats at stake, only a few are safe. The
closest races are New Mexico (where Democrat Jack Daniels is clearly behind),
North Carolina (where the McGovern current is dragging down Democrat Nick
Galifianakis), nip-and-tuck Oklahoma, Georgia and Rhode Island. In New Hamp-
shire, Montana, Alabama and Virginia originally favored Democratic incumbents
have not opened up the leads expected in summer. All of them are nervous.
Any of them could tumble. Louisiana continues to witness a close fight be-
tween Democrat J. Bennett Johnston and fast-gaining former Governor John
McKeithen, an independent whose January support could go to the highest bidder.
All in all, there are about 15 races close enough to be affected by
a strong -- or unexpectedly weak -- Nixon tide. The greatest effects of the
tide are bound to occur in the open seats: Kentucky, South Dakota, Idaho,
Oklahoma, New Mexico, North Carolina and Georgia. If the current is strong,
it could be the vital factor in the Republicans winning Senate control. On
the other hand, should the Nixon tide be unexpectedly weak, the GOP could
wind up standing still at 45 seats or even losing one.
Realignment and the White House: If President Nixon wins 56% of the
vote and the GOP picks up only 1-2 Senators and 10-15 congressmen, that will
be -- and should be -- regarded by party leaders as a bad showing all around,
a real muffing of a once-in-a-generation opportunity. But remonstration
could become even more bitter in the event that the President wins 58-60% of
the national vote and the GOP fails to win Congress. As the statistics of
1956 and 1964 indicate, such a presidential percentage should do the trick,
and if it does not, party leaders can criticize some unusual factors (in
addition to the growing phenomenon of ticket splitting).
As of mid-October, realignment was real and substantial. On Octo-
ber 19th, pollster Albert Sindlinger found eleven million more voters tden-
tifying themselves as Republicans than had been the case in July. This data
indicated the clearest realignment since the New Deal era. However, within a
few days, the Watergate/Sabotage network issue began to take hold, alienat-
ing some independents and causing a revulsion against the Nixon Administra-
tion even among some Republicans (who began reldentifying themselves as in-
dependents). Shortly thereafter, Vietnam ceasefire negotiations leaped onto
the frontpages, causing some voters to react by thinking it was a Nixon pre-
election trick. Moreover, with the war issue knocked out, some Hawk Demo-
crats who had been turning Republican went back the other way. Both issues
-- the Watergate and the last minute ceasefire arrangements -- seem to have
hurt the GOP, and both can be held against the White House. The Watergate
mess is a minus in more ways than just one. Besides antagonizing voters, it
underscores the 1972 failure of the White House to opt for a philosophic
framework rather than surveillance and media manipulation as the GOP tactic
for a "new majority.'
But the greatest aggravation to GOP re ulars has been the failure
of the White House to support party congressional candidates. The Adminis-
tration's "bipartisan crusade" presidential race tactic has been carried too
far. An APR survey of GOP leaders indicates blg trouble for the White House
if congressional returns so poorly.
Note: Issue No. 3A, Volume II of APR -- the post-election survey --
will be mailed out for November 12.
4
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
BRUCE KEHRLI
FROM:
WILLIAM E. TIMMONS
BI
SUBJECT:
House Races
Attached are my work sheets on some key House campaigns in
states that should be reporting fairly early.
Best indicators of sweep - or net pickups - are in Connecticut
and New Jersey.
+20
NEW JERSEY
Polls Close: 8 pm, EST
State labor leaders and Democratic officials are not enthused by McGovern
campaign. New Jersey has 30% ethnic vote with Italians the largest bloc.
Incumbent Clifford Case (R) won 1966 election with 60% and is heavily
favored this year against former Democratic Congressman Paul Krebs.
Republicans should have no trouble holding five House seats: John Hunt
(1st), Charles Sandman (2nd), Peter Frelinghuysen (5th), Ed Forsythe
(6th) and Bill Widnall (7th).
Democrats, however, can firmly count only four seats: Peter Rodino (10th),
Dominick Daniels (14th), Ed Patten (15th) and Robert Roe (8th).
There are probably greater potential House gains in New Jersey than any
other state should the President sweep the state. There are tight contests
in six districts: 3rd District Incumbent James Howard (D) slightly ahead
of Bill Dowd (R); Democratic Congressman Frank Thompson (4 th) is in
trouble in race with Peter Garibaldi (R); Rep. Henry Helstoski (D) of 9th
District could be upset by State Sen. Alfred Schiaffo (R); Incumbent
Joe Minish (D-11th) lost some heavy Democratic areas in re-districting
and is barely leading GOP challenger Milton Waldor; the 12th District
(retiring Flo Dwyer) is close but Matthew Rinaldo should win; and in the
new 13th District, without incumbent, Republican Joe Maraziti would be
walk-away winner except opponent is Helen Meyner, wife of former Governor.
1956
IKE
1,606,942
64.7%
AS
850,337
34.2%
2,457,279
1960
RN
1,363,324
49.2%
JFK
1,385,415
50.0%
2,748,739
4964
BG
964,174
33.9%
LBJ
1,868,231
65.6%
2,832,405
968
RN
1,325,467
46.1%
68 Registered Voters:
HHH
1,264,206
44.0%
3,319,752
GW
262,187
9.1%
'68 Turnout: 86.6%
2,851,860
OHIO
Polls Close: 6:30 pm, EST
The President should do well in the Buckeye State but his margin
will not be as large as some other states.
There are no statewide elections but referenda calling for a
Consitutional Convention and a repeal of taxes since January 1972,
prohibiting future graduated state income taxes.
There appears no opportunities to pick up House seats this year.
Republicans will have difficulty holding Rep. Walter Powell(R-8th)
against James Ruppert (D) although the GOP is leading; retiring
Bill McCulloch's seat in the 4th with Tennyson Guyer: and Frank
Bow's vacancy in the 16th with Ralph Regula.
1956
IKE
2,262,610
61.1%
AS
1,439,655
38.9%
3,702,265
1960
RN
2,217,611
53.3%
1,944,248
46.7%
4,161,859
1964
BG
1,470,865
37.1%
LBJ
2,498,331
62.9%
3,969,196
1968
RN
1,791,014
45.2%
HHH
1,700,586
42.9%
GW
467,495
11.8%
3,959,095
TENNESSEE
Polls Close: 4-9 pm EST
The President will receive a heavy percentage of total votes in the
Volunteer State. Most of the '68 Wallace vote (34%) will go to the
President.
Senator Howard Baker (R) is ahead but will do well to hold his 1966
percentage of 55. 7% against conservative Rep. Ray Blanton. Main
issue is busing and both candidates are vocal in opposing forced
busing. However, Baker recommended the federal judge -- and
took credit for his appointment -- who ordered increased and
unreasonable school-busing in Nashville. There is also some
minor GOP factionalism which could hurt Howard Baker.
The best possibility for Republican pick up is in new 6th District.
Incumbent Bill Anderson (D) of "Tiger Cage" fame is in hard
challenge from Robin Beard. Area has shown GOP trend in recent
years and Beard could pull upset.
However, Democrats could win GOP seat held by LaMar Baker of
Chattanooga who won in 1970 by only 51%. Howard Sompayrac (D)
is young and attractive and has been campaigning for over a year
attacking lackluster Baker. Addition of Democratic Oak Ridge to
district will help Sompayrac, as will an AIP candidate who may
draw a few thousand votes. Also, LaMar Baker refuses hometown
Sen. Bill Brock's offer to help because "he wants to win it on his
own.
1956
IKE
462,288
49.2%
AS
456,507
48.6%
918,795
1960
RN
556,577
52.9%
JFK
481,453
45.8%
1,038,030
1964
BG
508,965
44.5%
LBJ
635,047
55.5%
1,144,012
1968
RN
472,592
37.8%
'68 Registered Voters:
HHH
351,233
28.1%
1,840,077
GW
424,792
34.0%
68 Turnout: 67.9%
1,248,617
'72: 1,970,026
Projection: 1,253,716
MAINE
Polls Close: 8-9 pm, EST
Over the past decade and half there has been a distinct shift in
Maine to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the President is expected
to carry the State this year.
Sen. Margaret Chase Smith (R) is ahead of her opponent Rep. Bill
Hathaway. Smith's age (74), bitter GOP primary and energetic
campaign of Hathaway will make this a close race.
Rep. Peter Kyros (D) should win easily over Bob Porteous in the
1st District In Hathaway's old district, William (Bill) Cohen,
Mayor of Bangor, is running neck and neck with State Senator
Elmer Violette (D) and could pull an upset here.
1956
IKE
249,238
70.9%
AS
102,468
29.1%
351,706
1960
RN
240,608
57.0%
JFK
181,159
43.0%
421,767
1964
BG
118,701
31.2%
LBJ
262,264
68.8%
380,965
1968
RN
169,254
43.1%
'68 Registered Voters:
HHH
217,312
55.3%
509,888
GW
6,370
1.6%
'68 Turnout:
77.1%
392,936
KENTUCKY
Polls Close: 6-7 pm, EST
Kentucky, a border state, is one of the least urban areas in the
country. Nevertheless, voter turn-out has historically been high.
Louie Nunn and Walter Huddleston seek to fill John Sherman Cooper's
seat in the U.S. Senate. Nunn links opponent with McGovern.
Huddleston lags Nunn with unpopular sales tax passed during the
latter's Governorship. Election rated a toss-up with margin to Nunn
if President carries big.
House race to watch is 6th District (formerly held by Democrats Watts
and Curlin). Traditionally conservative Democrat area, Bluegrass,
tobacco, horses, Frankfort - State Capitol here, Lexington biggest
city. University of Kentucky also. Famous Kentucky name
Breckinridge (former state attorney general) is Democratic candidate,
and GOP is Laban Jackson (former Democrat). Rated leaning to
Democrats and a Republican victory would be a major upset.
Media may play up Kentucky's 3rd District (Louisville) as bellwether
since incumbent Romano Mazzoli (D) defeated GOP in 1970 by only
211 votes (closest in nation). However, Mazzoli has solidified his
base and the district has been re-drawn to include strong Democratic
areas. Our candidate, Phil Kaelin, is not strong. Therefore, we list
as definite Democratic, though media may interpret otherwise.
1956
IKE
572,192
54.3%
AS
476,453
45.2%
1,048,645
1960
RN
602,607
53.6%
JFK
521,855
46.4%
1,124,462
1964
BG
372,977
35.7%
LBJ
669,659
64.0%
1,042,636
1968
RN
462,411
43.8%
'68 Registered Voters:
HHH
397,541
37.6%
1,471,343
GW
193,098
18.3%
'68 Actual Turn-out: 71.8%
1,053,050
'72: 1,618,575
projection: 1,084,445
INDIANA
Polls Close:
Indiana is "Nixon Country" with only question of how big.
GOP Speaker of State House Otis Bowen is candidate for Governor against
former Gov. Matthew Walsh (D). The Democrat was a popular Governor
with strong name recognition. Bowen is hoping for Nixon landslide. Current
GOP Gov. Whitcomb is liability.
State Referenda include amendments to permit a Governor to serve eight
out of any 12 years, and another to allow county officers to serve unlimited
terms.
These House incumbent seats are considered safe:
Ray Madden (D-1st)
John Brademas (D-3rd)
Bud Hillis (R-5th)
Bill Bray (R-6th)
John Myers (R-7th)
Roger Zion (R-8th)
Lee Hamilton (D-9th)
Republicans David Dennis (10th) and Earl Landgrebe (2nd) are ahead but
both races are close.
There are two chances for GOP pick ups in Indiana
Allan Bloom of Fort
Wayne tackles U. S. Rep. Ed Roush (D) in 4th District, aided by some
GOP additions. Bloom behind but race is close. In Indiana's new 11th
District (Indianapolis), Presbyterian minister William Hudnut (R) leads
incumbent Rep. Andrew Jacobs. Nixon policies big issue here.
1956
IKE
1,182,811
59.9%
AS
783,908
39.7%
1,966,719
1960
RN
1,175,120
55.0%
JFK
952,358
44.6%
2,127,478
1964
BG
911,118
43.6%
LBJ
1,170,848
56.0%
2,081,966
1968
RN
1,067,885
50.3%
1968 Registered Voters:
HHH
806,659
38.0%
2,653,219
GW
243,108
11.4%
1968 Turnout: 80.0%
2,117,652
72 3,372,412 3,065,232
Projection: 2,509,831
CONNECTICUT
Polls Close at 8 p. m., EST
Connecticut is one of the mos urban states. No Republican has carried
it since 1956. The state is one of the highest in ethnic strength--32% of the
population, with Italians the largest bloc.
There are no statewide races this year. McGovern and Shriver have worked
this state heavily.
Connecticut has six Congressional districts and only one is safe: Stewart
McKinney (R-4th).
Richard Rittenband (R) is running even with incumbent Wm. Cotter (D-1st).
District predominantly Democratic with mix of ethnics. Industrial,
urban. Hartford is main city.
Robert Steele (R-2nd) is leading in bid for re-election against Roger Hilsman
(D). But it's a swing district yankee and some French Canadians.
Henry Povinelli (R) challenges incumbent Robert Giaimo (D-3rd) in this
industrial, urban district which is basically Democratic and Italian-
American. Giaimo has edge but heavy Presidential vote could help Povinelli.
Ronald Sarasin (R) is engaged in effort to unseat John Monagan (D-5th).
Irish, Italian and some old yankee stock in small towns. Predominantly
Democratic and Monagan leads.
John Walsh (R) could upset incumbent Ella Grasso (D-6th) if the
President coattails are effective. Grasso won in 1970 with 51. 1% in
this normally marginal district which is diverse: industrial, small towns,
and upper income suburbs.
1956
Ike
711,837
63.7%
AS
405,079
36.3%
1,116,916
1960 RN
565,813
46.3%
JFK
657,055
53.7%
1,222,868
1964
BG
390,996
32.1%
LBJ
826,269
67.8%
1,217,265
1968
RN
556,721
44.3%
1968 Registered Voters:
HIIH
621,561
49.5%
1,341,519
GW
76,650
6.1%
1968 Turnout: 93:6%
1,254,932
'72: 1,507,603
Projection: 1,341,766
GEORGIA
Polls Close: 7 pm, EST
Democrats in this deep south state have avoided George McGovern's
candidacy. Wallace won in 1968 and the President was second. In
1972 the President is expected to win big everywhere in the Peach
State except in black arcas in Atlanta.
U.S. Rep. Fletcher Thompson (R) is rated even with Sam Nunn of
Perry in bid for David Gambrell's Senate seat. Nunn is seen as
conservative but has major black support as well as most of
Georgia Party establishment.
Rep. Ben Blackburn (R) should win re-election to 4th District Atlanta
suburbs However, Rodney Cook (R) is behind in effort to win
Thompson's old House seat. Andrew Young is Democratic candidate,
Black, former aide to Martin Luther King, Jr. District has been
redrawn and is now 44% Negro and virtually all will go to Young.
1956
IKE
222,778
33.3%
AS
444,688
66.4%
667,466
1960
RN
274,472
37.4%
JFK
458,638
62.6%
733,110
1964
BG
616,584
54.1%
LBJ
522,556
45.9%
1,139,140
1963
RN
380,111
30.4%
'68 Registered Voters:
HHH
334,439
26.8
1,850,000
GW
535,550
42.8
'68 Turnout: 67.6%
1,250,100
'72: 2,043,002
Projection: 1,287,091
NEW YORK
Public polls show the President running 20 points ahead in the Empire
State. Blue-collar Catholics seem to have swung to Nixon and bitter
Democratic infighting hurt McGovern.
There are no statewide races.
Republicans should hold two House "open" seats: 31st (Pirnie) with Don
Mitchell over Robert Castle (D) and 33rd (Terry) with William Walsh
over Clarence Kadys (D).
The new 3rd District (parts of LI, Nassau, and Suffolk) should be
Republican and Angelo Roncallo normally would be a clear winner over
Democrat Carter Bales. However, Conservative candidate Laurence
Russo will run well in Suffolk and eat into the GOP margin. Leaning
Republican.
There are five incumbent Democrats who must be rated marginal:
1st District (NY suburbs - LI upper income):
Democratic Otis Pike VS. Joseph Boyd. Conservative entrant
Robert Gardiner makes it leaning Democratic.
17th District (Staten Island):
Rep. John Murphy won in 1970 with 51. 6% Mario Belardino (R)
will make close race. Toss up.
-26th District:
Strong Republican District. Rep. John Dow (D) faces GOP Ben
Gilman. Would be easy pick up except for Conservative Yale Rapkin.
24th District (parts of Westchester County):
This one district to watch. Turncoat Ogden Reid faces Republican-
Conservative Carl Vergari. Swing Italian vote important. Toss up.
-32nd District:
This race pits Democratic Rep. James Hanley against GOP-Conservative
Leonard Koldin. Redistricting helps Republicans and Koldin's fate
tied to Nixon margin.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date
TO: 65
FROM:
BRUCE KEHRLI
For F,/E!!! your
whinth
May 11, 1972
at WITH Everyhne. x
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
ans
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
9/28 6/58
FROM:
L. HIGBY
10/2 $
ists
10/9 12/16/22 49
Now that Haldeman is locked into the Ehrlichman Monday /Thursday
political meetings, we should make sure there is a Talking Paper
prepared for him for each one of these meetings that raises, or
$
1639
gives him the opportunity to raise those subjects regarding the
Campaign operation that need to be settled.
Will you please take this on as an assignment. Make sure that we
10/26/110
have the Talking Paper by Wednesday at noon to review and that
he has it in his Wednesday evening material each time.
10/30/19
01/1
Also, Magruder was supposed to be sending over to me a letter
or memerandum of understanding on how the surrogate program
was to work. Would you please make sure we get this from
7/19
Magruder before the week is out.
Thank you.
11/9
any
7/B/1
AN
LH:kb
$
8/10
8/11
8/14
8/17
$14
8/28
8/36
THE STAR Nov. 3
MESSAGE TO VOTERS
Western Union Is Upset
About Nixon 'Telegram'
By SUSAN AXELROD
who might think it is a West-
sonal message" from the
Special to The Star-News
ern Union telegram.
President urging the recipient
The light yellow letter is ad-
Shumway said it never OC-
to vote; stating that "your
dressed to you personally. The
cured to him that persons re-
vote can help achieve the goal
envelope and letterhead are
ceiving such a letter might
of the biggest voter turnout in
marked "telegram." The text
confuse it with a real tele-
American history on Nov. 7, SO
of the letter is written in upper
gram.
that the result of this election
case letters similar to tele-
"People know what a real
will reflect the views of a
gram type and the message
telegram looks like," he said.
clear majority of all Ameri-
urges you to vote on election
He said he didn't know why
cans." It also sent regards
day. It is signed "Richard Nix-
the letters were labeled "tele-
from Mrs. Nixon.
on."
gram." He said "you'll have
Shumway said the method
to draw four own conclus-
However, the "telegram"
has been used in "other politi-
sions."
comes from the Committee to
cal campaigns."
Re-elect the President
-
not
IRWIN CALLED IT "a mis-
Irwin said, "there have been
Western Union.
representation
Western
other organizations that have
The Committee to Re-elect
Union telegrams are not de-
similarly used the yellow
the President is mailing 7 mil-
livered by mail. After one has
blank telegram image for
lion to 8 million such "mes-
been read over the telephone
sages" to voters across the
a confirmation can be sent
their purposes without West-
nation as part of its "get out
through the mail if requested,
ern Union's permission." He
and vote effort," according to
but first delivery is never
named a local department
DeVan L. Shumway, director
made by mail," he said.
store and a mail order com-
of public relations for the com-
Shumway said he had no
pany as examples.
mittee.
idea how much the "tele-
"The company takes a firm
grams" would cost the com-
stand against this and in this
A SPOKESMAN says West-
mittee, but the amount will be
instance they are taking ac-
ern Union feels that the effort
filed along with other GOP re-
tion," he said.
is trading on the company's
ports with the General Ac-
Action generally,consists of
goodwill.
counting Office.
a letter written to the party
Company lawyer David A.
The letters are being mailed
using the blank images, asking
Irwin said yesterday that the
by bulk rate, thus costing the
them to stop sending the let-
telegram is "an unauthorized
committee 5 cents each rather
ters. If the practice is not
use of the Western Union yel-
than 8 cents.
stopped, they are informed,
low blank image" and "may
The letter states:
the letter could be followed by
be misleading to some people"
The letter transmits a "per-
a lawsuit.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Pre-Election Survey
The Gallup Organization conducted a 3,500 person survey
November 2-4, completing interviews Saturday at 12 noon.
John Davies called me at 11:30 p.m. Saturday night to
say that the results of the registered with leaners was
64 for the President and 36 for McGovern. Over Saturday
night additional computer runs would be made to determine
likely voters.
On Sunday morning at 9:15 Colson called to ask for the
Gallup results. He said Harris would show a 24% spread.
I reached John Davies through his wife at Gallup. He
could only talk briefly and said Dr. Gallup had been
working with the likely voter figures and would publish
62 for the President and 38 for McGovern. I told Davies
the Harris lead would be 27 points.
I reached John Davies at his home late Sunday night.
He reviewed the system Dr. Gallup used in determining
the final figure released to the press.
1) The original registered with leaners figure
that corresponds with the Gallup post-Republican Convention
poll (Aug 24-27) was 62-34-4. Davies allocated the
undecided 2 to the President and 2 to McGovern to get
64-36.
2) Dr. Gallup on Sunday morning applied a "secret
formula", used since 1948. The formula is based on eight
introductory questions. Davies would not give me the
exact wording but the subjects are: respondent's interest
in the election; whether respondent is registered; where
respondent is registerd; where respondent will vote; how
respondent voted in 1968 and 1964; whether respondent will
vote on paper ballot or by machine; likelihood of respondent
to vote in 1972.
- 2 -
3) From the "secret formula" applied to the eight
questions, Dr. Gallup determined that 2,700 of the 3,500
sample were likely voters.
4) Dr. Gallup's turnout scale is developed from these
eight questions. He then projected an 80,000,000+ turnout.
Davies two weeks ago reported that this Gallup turnout
projection is historically accurate.
5) Davies gave his personal projections: 62.1%
for the President, giving him every state except Massachusetts
and D.C.
An interesting story on Dr. Gallup from the National Observer
is attached.
NATIONAL OBSERVER
11/11/72
ARTICLE ON THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION
By Wesley Pruden, Jr.
TV, No: Testure, Yes
G
EGRGE GALLUP the polling man, is
Polit is only the common thread. Gal-
pretty sure he knows how you'll vote
lup's
ills offer a fascinating look at
this week Be certain hat you can't
what
erica has been In 1939 Gallup
say that about him.
as
ricans whether they would be
He won vote at all. He never does.
to fly across the Atlantic "in one
th
ommercial airplanes." Only 41
"If someone asks me how I intend to
yes. He asked Americans
vote," explains the man whose name has
would be interested in buying
become synonymous with voter polls, "my
vision set," and 87 per cent
answer could be interpreted as my trying to
no.
influence the election if I said 'Democrat'
or Republicant If I say, 'No, I can't tell
Wor War II polls evoke startling
you,' then how could I ask anyone else
ctions how it was in the midst of a
such a question? So I never vote, but I
war In 1944, 13 per cent of all
never say enything about it."
ans rested that all Japanese citi-
zens should killed at war's end. Most of
A Thousand Surprises
sugge the appropriate method:
But Gallup and his two sons George Gal-
turi them. a slow and awful death."
lup, and Alec Gallup, and a daughter,
suggested: "Put them in a tank
Julia Gallup, tell nearly everything else
and ufforate them."
about. family's famous business this week
Hanging or shooting was good enough for
with the publication of a remar ble, 2,500-
Nazi leaders, said 35 per cent in a 1942
page three-volume book containing every
belity and only 2 per cent wanted to torture
poll ey published during their first 37 years
Germans. Six per cent would have shown
What makes The Gallup Poll Public
ome leniency-5 per cem would have gone
Opinion 1935-1971 remarkable is, its recol-
any on Hitler himself Hirdly surprisingly,
lection of some remarkable American
7 per cent of Gallup's Americans thought
lic opinions. If one recollection doesn't
he United States would get along better
prise the browsing scholar, a thousand
with Germany than Japan once the war
others will.
was WOR, probably because, as a 1945 poll
Politics is the common thread running
showed, 82 per cent of asked con-
through the answers to 20,000 questions Gal-
sidered the Japanese-the "Japs," in those
lup and his men have asked over the years.
days-inherently crueler than the Germans.
From these questions he has distilled 7,000
Tastes, as Gallup found them, were dif-
reports. The names found most often through
ferent in those war years. The 10 states
the volumes, testimony to their staying pow-
Americans said they would most like to live
er, are Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston
in were, in order, California, Florida, New
Churchill, and Richard M. Nixon.
York, Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Arizona,
Nixon first showed up in 1953; 82 per
Kentucky, Mississippi, and Michigan. Ameri-
cent correctly identified him as the Vice
can men preferred brunettes over blondes,
President and per cent said they had a
43 per cent to 23, and 83 per cent of all Amer-
favorable impression of him. Five years
icans slept in double beds-in which 14 per
later he made Gallup's list of the "10 most
cent still had frequent difficulty getting
admired men in the world," an eclectic roll
to sleep. Only 5 per cent of the Americans
Rabilities including Billy Graham, Orval
polled could correctly identify Hirohito as
Faubus, Jonas Balk, and both Harry S Tru-
the Japanese emperor (most thought his
man Douglas MacArthur.
Page 2
name was hari-kari or Fujiyama), and
Sex Is a No-No
67 per cent of all American women said
American soldiers shouldn't be allowed to
Most of the political questions the Gal-
date German girls once- the war was over.
lup pollsters ask are the obvious ones,
Only 57 per cent of the men thought SO.
taken from Page One. The others come
from the curiosity of Gallup, his sons, and
"Silent Night" was nearly everyone's
three or four others in the high command
favorite carol at Christmas 1947, followed
of the American Institute of Public Opin-
closely by "White Christmas." The Jews
ion in Princeton, N.J.
were fighting for Palestine, 76 per cent
The questions are invariably asked in
of the Americans wished them well, and
a noncontroversial way. Fred Israel de-
21 per cent would have been willing to
scribes them as "middle-class questions."
send U.S. troops to help.
The Gallups avoid some subjects entirely.
The postwar years were the optimistic
Says Israel: "Sex is usually too risque.
years-43 per cent of all Americans
They once discarded as too risque the
thought Soviet Russia would co-operate
question, 'Would it matter to you whether
with America in world affairs. Less than
the girl you marry is a virgin?' Someone
two years after the end of the war, 45
suggested they ask whether Lyndon John-
per cent felt "friendly" toward the Ger-
son should be tried as a war criminal. The
mans. Gallup asked Americans how much
question was discarded as too controver-
money a family of four needed to "get
sial."
along," and the answers averaged $33 a
One of the great crises at the Gallup
week in the South to $45 a week in the
organization erupted several years ago
East. Three of every four American fam-
when a questionnaire went out asking
ilies spent less than $25 a week on food.
prospective legal clients whether they
The Gallup Poll/Public Opinion 1935-
would "go to a woman layer." Gallup
1971 was the idea of Fred Israel and
himself hurried down to the Princeton post
William P. Hansen, two editors at Ran-
office to sort through the mailbags to get
dom House who are paid to think up
the offending questionnaires back.
such projects. The best-selling reprint of
the 1897 Sears catalog was their idea;
First Success: FDR Over Landon
so was an anthology tracing Dick Tracy's
Gallup, who is 71, is a thoughtful
villains through the years. The three-vol-
Iowan who walks and talks with the air
ume Gallup set costs $95, and Random
of a gentleman farmer, a term at which
House expects to sell most of them to 11-
he winces. He ticks off the crops he grows
braries, historians, and corporations.
on his working farm nearby: soybeans,
"As social history, this is fascinating
wheat, corn, and beef. "We no longer
stuff," says Israel, who is also a profes-
have a dairy herd."
sor of American history at the City Col-
Gallup went to Princeton in 1934, the
lege of New York. "Some of the answers
year before he started the poll. He was
seemed incredible. Adds Hansen: "When
accused of moving there just to get the
we were going through the old polls it was
dateline for his column-so that readers
like playing Can You Top This."
might incorrectly assume that his Ameri-
can Institute of Public Opinion was af-
The Politician as Follower
filiated with Princeton University.
If there's a common theme, Israel
He purchased the farm in 1934, when
says, it's a theme of political ignorance.
he was working for Young & Rubicam
"One poll shows that only 49 per cent knew
the New York advertising agency. "When
the names of both their senators. A simi-
I started the poll, I started it in Prince-
lar poll, with the questions being asked
ton because I didn't want to commute. 1
in Britain, showed that 75 per cent knew
wanted to stay on the farm.'
the answer to the similar question.
Gallup's first success was the 1938
But Gallup's polls also show an un-
election, when he correctly predicted
stakable pattern of the politician as fol-
Roosevelt's victory over Alf Landon
er of public opinion, rather than lead-
the face of the popular Literary Digest
Israel believes. "The polls on the
poll, which said FDR would lose. The'
nish civil war showed a preponderant
interest, as well as an ignorance of the
Roosevelt landslide ruined Literary Di-
gest, which relied on polling sheer num-
ues. This certainly -makes [President
klin D.] Roosevelt's reluctance to
bers, taking names from the telephone
involved understandable."
directory.
He traces a similar pattern in Nixon's
"They polled 12,000,000 people," Gal-
maneuvering to bring Communist
lup recalls, with some awe of the effort
a into the United Nations. "Ameri-
expended. "That was enough to reach
opinion was solidly against it in the
every third American home in 1936. We
Os but began dissolving in 1969. The
polled 30,000-and we tried to disguise
poll Gallup took before Nixon an-
that figure."
unced that he was going to Peking
Gallup's method, an innovation at the
wed 52 per cent of Americans thought
time, was to build a tiny replica of the
Communists should get the seat in
national electorate-a truly random sam-
U.N."
pling-and treat the sample's answers as
the electorate's. This technique has been
refined in the years since, but the principle
Page 3
is the one Gallup and his competitors use
Most of Gallup's 900 interviewers have
Though based on the hard laws of
today.
similar stories. Like pots-and-pans sales-
probability, modern polling still offends
The random-sampling technique was
men, pollsters learn quickly not to be
some voters. "Nobody ever asks me,"
severely criticized. "We don't get as much
surprised how someone answers their
goes the most common complaint. Given
criticism today as we once did," Gallup
knock. One interviewer noted that one
the laws of probability and the size of
says. "In the early years, when our meth-
woman insisted on answering his ques-
the national sample-1,500 voters in 365
ods were not SO well understood, there
tions while naked. ("Not bad looking," he
interviewing areas-the chance of any
was constant criticism."
noted in the margin.) Another woman in-
one of 208,000,000 Americans being inter-
sisted on being interviewed as she sat
Most critics today cite the time lag be-
viewed is infinitesimal.
propped up in bed; midway through the
tween the interviews and publication of
interview, a man emerged from under
Nevertheless, pollsters are an old and
the results, arguing that the results are
the covers. gashil, breath
favorite target of politicians, particularly
sometimes misleading. Gallup concedes
Some of the best answers go unrecord-
those trailing in the polls. Truman, the
this as valid criticism. "What you must
ed. Once, when Gallup was polling about
patron saint of the also-running, sneered
understand," he says, "is that a poll is
attitudes toward "the double sexual stan-
at them in 1948. Barry Goldwater laughed
really a snapshot, an accurate picture
dard" for men and women, a woman re-
at then in 1964. And George McGovern
of sentiment at the time the poll was
plied: "I'm all for it. In matters of sex,
railed at them only last week, asserting
taken."
standards should be twice as high."
that the pollsters would get the hangover
of their lives with this week's result.
No Repeat of 1948
A man supplied a definition of the
Opinion lag is what burned him in
European Common Market: "It's where
Gallup has heard it all, but never more
1948, he says, when Truman startled
the average person in Europe goes to
colorfully than from Earl Long, the late
everyone but Truman by upsetting Thomas
shop."
governor of Louisiana. Gallup did a spe-
E. Dewey. Gallup says he quit polling too
cial poll of Louisiana's 1940 Democratic
Most Interviewers Are Women
soon.
gubernatorial primary, concluding that
Gallup's interviewers, like the people
Long would lose.
"The chief failure in the election fore-
casts this year was due to decisions made
they interview, are chosen from nearly
'Uncle Earl's Soliloquy
by the poll directors rather than failure
every occupation. Most are women. Many
of the sampling system itself,' Gallup
are over 65; the oldest is 87. About half
"Three months ago," wrote Long in
wrote in a humiliating post mortem two
are college graduates. Half are Demo-
a full-page advertisement in Louisiana
weeks after the 1948 election. "One of the
crats, half Republicans.
newpapers, "a half-dozen postgraduate
'social science' workers from Princeton
reasons why the polls went wrong
The interviewer gets a blue-and-white
University, augmented by seven or eight
was their failure to continue questioning
Gallup button, a No. 2 pencil, a clipboard
East Side New Yorkers who had never
voters right up to election eve."
with 10 questionnaires for the day's work
in their lives seen a 'possum, tasted a
Gallup's pollsters, like those of his
and a map of the interviewing area. On
sweet potato, or chewed a plug of tobacco,
leagues, will not make that mistake this
reaching the area, the pollster makes an
arrived in New Orleans to conduct a so-
year. Voters in the 365 "interviewing
"X" in the northeast corner of the map
called 'survey of public opinion.'
areas" will be questioned through election
This is the first house, and the rout
goes clockwise from the starting point
"After taking a few sight-seeing trips,
eve; Gallup will telegraph the final re-
If the first house is a corner house, the
getting some fancy grub at the famous
sults and analysis to his 153 newspaper-
subscribers only a few hours before the
pollster skips it. A corner house invar-
restaurants of New Orleans, looking at
first actual votes are cast.
iably is the home of the most affluent man
some swamps, and sending picture post-
on the block, whose opinion is thought to
cards back home, they then wrote some
Gallup and his sons still occasionally
take questionnaires into the field them-
introduce a bias.
mystic figures in their little black books
and hurried back to their boss, a low-
selves. He recalls an interview he did
The typical poll requires 45 minutes.
ceiling guy with bifocal glasses who sits
not long ago in Lisbon, Maine.
The voter is asked about his occupation,
enthroned way up there in Princeton, New
schooling, and political and religious af-
Jersey, like the Wizard of Oz and peers
An Interviewer's Adventures
filiations SO that Gallup, by checking this
owlishly at figures all day long until he
"I knocked on the door and identified
information against Census Bureau
looks like a left-handed figure-4.
myself. I told the lady that I was from
data, can build an accurate replica.
"Out of this hocus-pocus of numb
the Gallup Poll.
and dope sheets and form charts, lo! and
'Yes,' she said, T've heard of it?
behold, if up didn't jump the Gallup
'How do you intend to vote,' I asked
Poll.
She looked at me, with a little shock show-
Gallup, as it turned out, was right.
ing on her face. She seemed to back up a
Long lost. Gallup framed Long's attack,
couple of steps.
and it hangs today in a place of honor
'Do I have to tell you that?'
"way up there in Princeton, New Jersey.'
'If you don't tell me, how will I
Says Gallup, with an envious sigh: "If I
know?'
could write like that, I'd never have gone
''Oh,' she replied, 'I thought you did
into the polling business."
it with statistics.'
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Pre-Election Survey
The Gallup Organization conducted a 3,500 person survey
November 2-4, completing interviews Saturday at 12 noon.
John Davies called me at 11:30 p.m. Saturday night to
say that the results of the registered with leaners was
64 for the President and 36 for McGovern. Over Saturday
night additional computer runs would be made to determine
likely voters.
On Sunday morning at 9:15 Colson called to ask for the
Gallup results. He said Harris would show a 24% spread.
I reached John Davies through his wife at Gallup. He
could only talk briefly and said Dr. Gallup had been
working with the likely voter figures and would publish
62 for the President and 38 for McGovern. I told Davies
the Harris lead would be 27 points.
I reached John Davies at his home late Sunday night.
He reviewed the system Dr. Gallup used in determining
the final figure released to the press.
1) The original registered with leaners figure
that corresponds with the Gallup post-Republican Convention
poll (Aug 24-27) was 62-34-4. Davies allocated the
undecided 2 to the President and 2 to McGovern to get
64-36.
2) Dr. Gallup on Sunday morning applied a "secret
formula", used since 1948. The formula is based on eight
introductory questions. Davies would not give me the
exact wording but the subjects are: respondent's interest
in the election; whether respondent is registered, where
respondent is registerd, where respondent will vote; how
respondent voted in 1968 and 1964, whether respondent will
vote on paper ballot or by machine, likelihood of respondent
to vote in 1972.
- 2 -
3) From the "secret formula" applied to the eight
questions, Dr. Gallup determined that 2,700 of the 3,500
sample were likely voters.
4) Dr. Gallup's turnout scale is developed from these
eight questions. He then projected an 80,000,000+ turnout.
Davies two weeks ago reported that this Gallup turnout
projection is historically accurate.
5) Davies gave his personal projections: 62.10
for the President, giving him every state except Massachusetts
and D.C.
An interesting story on Dr. Gallup from the National Observer
is attached,
GS/jb
the Japanese emperor (most thought his
-MAIL S AND U
SE ФИЧСЛИ Anuspi Spottace pinoo polied
SUBJECTITY an 10 quan and S SIUO idease 01
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Supplies que... = DEQ Illus 1040
(SCUL C.,,
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susch CANC
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can men preferred brunettes over bicudes,
801A #00 16
18.1 is :EXCT 5) da
Kentucky Mississippi. and Michigan. Ameri-
you
York, Texas, Oregon, Arizona,
'UOXIN W pas )
M9N HOLDER 'wepxo u; area up
HONSUM a NUMBER 0.00 MO
117 01 exit isou pmon Meqi pies
-MOU fundris them 04 Aut
section 01 and Veris. JSM those u;
uaro 1s0u pope) ICU only
Tastes, as Galluy found them. were dif-
00012 seq U.S.S.
da; s-inherently cenelar than the Germans.
PUI JBAO payer % THE
asou:
5
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1.
sidered the
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ded 38 process
Supan: peesui 0.00 SI $40.00
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THE
with Germany than Japan once the war
purshase E or organ
te United States would get along better
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thought suscheury go quat and 1
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HOORI SIE SI 2,0,000
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Mother suggesteri: "Put them in a tank
Gellup. and a daughter,
Y
-
"Porture them to slow and awful death."
HED esseep 'suos Country:
(
bese suggested the appropriate method:
secretions
PNE should be lilled at war's end. Most of
mericans suggested that all Japanese citi-
WAT eneque
"moral" war. In 1.14, 13 per cent of all
I enq $101 JAAGU I CF TT
este HSU I PUBLIC ANA
recollections of how it was in the midst of a
the 1,000 I 'ON. 'APR J receipt
-3
Statement ехслэ polls II PROM SH
pies I "
ou plus
01 Surfai Aus sr personally
13
cent ded L3 pus Mes U,,
h voter polis, "my
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Americens payse eH NOA mes quest Jed
01 pue,up I MCQ 6.2
It AJUO process. .3 MAU en 10
*seep JPASU SII
euo U),, opurty any and 01
asken Americans "isther they would be
Oatlup 0061 UI been "I comeury AIRUM
1,U80 no.1 100
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VOTE ILL ACC
-180 peach southes 003 Agest ST Pottion
SI 'uew Fuggrod 60 M
1995 :0N 'AI
of respons 4g
ARTICLE ON THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION
11/11/72
NATIONAL OBSERVER
Page 2
name was hart-kari or Fujiyama). and
Sex Is a No-No
67 panient of all A: in women said
Amen coldiers should be allowed to
Most of the political questions the Gal-
date girls once to war was over.
lup pollsters ask are the obvious GOBS,
Only 57 per cent of the men thought 30.
taken from Page One. The others come
from the curiosity of Gallup, his sons. and
"S n' Night" was nearly everyone's
three or four others in the high command
favorite Carol at Christmas 1947. followed
of the American Institute of Public Opin-
closely White The Jews
ion in Princeton, N.J.
were
for
Policies,
70 per cent
The questions are invariably asked in
of the virua them well. and
a noncontroversial way. Fred Israel de-
21 per cent would the been willing :0
scribes them as le-class questions."
send C.S. reops to helts.
The Gallups avoid some subjects entirely.
TO year. were the optimistic
Says Isreel: "Sex is usually too risque.
year per cent of 11 Americans
They once discarded 23 too risque the
thought Seviet Russin world CO-Opers
question, 'Would it matter to you whether
with Autherica in work. Less unan
the girl you marry is a virgin?' Someone
two years after the end of the war. 45
suggested they ask whether Lyndon John-
per curt Lelt friendly toward the Get-
son should be tried as a wer criminal. The
mann Collap asked Americans how much
question was discarded as 100 controver-
money unity of 1000 needed to That
sial."
along. and the answers averaged $33 a
One of the great crises at the Gallup
week in the South to 515 2 week in the
organization erupted several years ago
East. Three of every four American ram-
when 3 questionnaire went out asking
illes spear less than $25 week on tood.
prospective legal clients whether they
The Poll Public Opinion 1935-
would 1100 to a woman layer." Gallup
1971 133 the idea 01 Fred Israel and
himself Murried down to the Princeton post
William P. Hansen. two editors at Rin-
office to sort through the mailbags to get
dom House who are paid to think up
the offending questionnaires back.
such projects, The best-leiling reprint of
the 1307 Scars catalog WAS their idea:
First Success: FDR Over Landon
so was on anthology tracing Lnck Tracy's
Gallup, who is 71, is a thoughtful
villains the years. The three-vol-
Iowan who walks and talks with the air
ume Comb set costs inj and Random
of 3 gentlaman farmer 3. term at which
House to sell of them to II-
he winces. He ticks OII the crops ne grows
braries, historians, and corporations.
on his working farm nearby: soybeans,
"As social history. this is fascinating
wheat, corn. and beef. "We no longer
stuff. S.SS Israel, who is also a profes-
have a dairy herd."
sor of American history at the City Col-
Gallin went to Princeton in 1934, the
lege of No. York. "Some 01 the answers
year before he started the poll. He was
seem incredible." Adds Hansen: "When
accused of moving there just to get the
we were through the and polis it was
dateline for his column-so that readers
like playing Con You Tup This."
might incorrectly assume that his Ameri-
can Institute of Public Opinion was at
The Politician as Follower
filiated with Princeton University.
If there's 11 common theme. Israel
He purchased the farm in 1934. wher
says, IVS A the.ne of volition ignorance.
he was working for Yours & Rublean
"One that only 40 per cent knew
the New York advertism; agency. "Wh
the emos 11 both their enators. A simi-
I started the poll, I started it in Print
lar the quesuins being asked
ton because I didn't want to commute
in P.H in. that THE cent knew
wanted to stay on the form"
similare estion.
Gallup's first success was the 1'
polls
an
The
election. when he correctly predict
utem
of
et
as
101-
Receivell's victory over All Landon
opinion concer than lend-
the face of me popular Library
leves.
on
the
poll, which said FDD would lose. In
showed meponderent
Roosevel Invislide Liverary
of
the
gest, which relied on polling sheer num
certainly
President
bers, tailing names from the telephone
301
Rooseve
resultance
to
directory.
evalved
Be 1530 52 similar in Nixon's
"They polled 12,000,000 people." Gal-
1 to tring Communist
lup recular, with some awe of the effort
a ma the United "Ameri-
expended That was enough to reach's
every third American home in 1936. in
WDS solidly additional it in the
polled 24000-and we Ded to disguise
1000. The
poll took Nixon an-
that tigere."
inced he was some to Peking
Gallup's method, an innovation at the
( ) of oricans thought
time, We to build :) hay replica of the
Communists should ::: the sent 111
national dectorate-a ty random sam-
U.N."
pling-and treat the same: answers as
the electorate's. This to Durque has been
refined in the years since, OR the principle
Page 3
is the one Gallup and his competitors use
Most of Gallup's 900 interviewers have
Though based on the hard laws of
today.
similar stories. Like pots-and-pans sales-
probability, modern pollins still offends
Inc random-semplice technique was
men, pollsters learn quickly not to be
some voters. "Nobody ever asks me."
surprised how someone answers their
criticized.
goes the most common complaint. Given
knock. One interviewer noted that one
error. m today is % did, 0
the laws of probability and the size of
$0.8. "ID the early when OUT 22
woman insisted on answering his ques-
the national sample-1,500 voters in 365
tions while naked. ("Not bad looking," he
ods not SO
ere
interviewing areas-the chance of any
noted in the margin.) Another woman in-
Who constant criticist.
one of 208.000,000 Americans being inter-
sisted on being interviewed as she set
viewed is infinitesimal.
critics today the the time
propped %) in bed: midway through the
West
Le
interve
GI
interview, 2 man emerged from under
Nevertheless, pollsters are an old and
the
CO'
favorite target of politicians, particularly
N. Thus Childip
Some the best answers =0 unrecord-
those trailing in the polls. Trumon. the
:,
vosid
critic
cd. Once. when Gallup was polling about
patron saint of the also-running. sheered
11.
he
that
...
ward "the double sexual stan-
at them in 1948. Barry Goldwater laughed
snapshot. currie
at them in 1964. And George McGovern
dard" frig men and women. a woman re-
of at the time
plied: m on for it. In matters of sex,
railed at them only last week. asserting
taken.
that the pollsters would get the hangover
standards should be twice as high."
of their lives with this weeks result.
No Kepeat of 1018
A man supplied a definition of the
European Common Market: "It's where
Gallup has heard it all. but never more
Opinion lag is What hurned him in
the average person in Europe goes to
colorfully than from Earl Long. the late
10.1. he says. with Fruman stortled
shop."
governor of Louisiana. Gallup did a spe-
every but Trumper setting
cial poll of Louisiana's 1040 Democratic
E. Driver Gallup anys he quit port M
Most Interviewers Are Women
gubernatorial primary, concluding that
scan.
"The chief failure in the election core-
Galluo's interviewers, like the people
Long would lose.
costs this year was due to decisions made
they interview. are chosen from nearly
'Uncle Earl's Soliloquy
us the poli directors rather than failure
every occupation. Most are women. Many
"Three months ago," wrote Long in
0" fun compling sistem itself." cells
are over 03; the oldest is 87. About half
wrote .". 2 humiliate mostem the
are college graduates. Hall are Demo-
a full-page advertisement in Louisiana
weeks awer the 194 Alection. "One of the
crats, half Republicans.
newpapers, "a half-dozen Postgraduate
'social science' workers from Princeton
reasons why the pick wrens
The interviewer gets a blue-and-white
University, augmented by seven or eight
Was hir failure as inntine questioning
Gallup button, a No. 2 pencil. a clipboard
East Side New Yorkers who had never
to right up to et who eve."
with 10 questionnaires for the day's work
in their lives seen a possum, tasted a
Bollup's polisters, Va Close of
and a map or the interviewing area. Oi
sweet potato, or chewed a plug of tobacco,
not
reaching the area the pollster makes P.
arrived in New Orleans to excident a so-
your viters in
"X" in the northeast corner of the m.)
called 'survey of public opinion.'
areas" will ce question led through
This is the first house, and the ro:
"After taking a few sign- soing trips,
ever Collup will terminapa the in
coes clockwise from the starting poins
getting some fency grub at the famous
sults shill analysis C 11. 153 newsy-per-
If the first house is a corner house, the
restaurants of New Orleans, looking at
subscribers only a 10" hours before me
polister skips it. A corner house invar-
some swamps. and sending picture post-
first serual votes 3R CASE.
inbly is the home of the most affluent man
cards back home, they then wrote some
and his ANS 11 occasic
on the block. whose opinion is thought to
mystic figures in their little black b DKS
introduce a bias.
12.19 questionnaires isto the field the
and hurried back to their hoss, a low-
selves Me recolls 1.1: erview be 7d
The typical poll requires 45 minutes.
celling guy with bifocal gla. who sits
not ton,- CCO in Lism Maine,
The voter IS asked about his occupation,
enthroned way up there in Princeton, New
schooling and political and religious af-
Jersey, like the Wizard of 02 and pecrs
An Interviewer's Adventures
filiations so that Gallun, by checking this
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November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MACGREGOR
FROM:
FRED MALEK am
SUBJECT:
Status of GOTV
This memorandum reviews where we stand on preparation for getting out
the vote on election day and summarizes the field organizations' estimates
of Tuesday's voting results.
As you know, there are five basic tools being used to get out the vote:
(1) Pre-election reminder calls to all identified supporters and all
registered Republicans; (2) a telegram reminding all identified supporters
and all Republicans in the ten key states to vote; (3) poll checking in
the states where it is allowed; (4) Election Day phoning to those supporters
and Republicans to remind them to vote; (5) victory squads to go door to door
late in day to remind those supporters who have not voted that we need their
vote. The leadership in the states were asked to blend the pieces of this
national program into a workable plan for their particular states.
We concentrated most of our management efforts from here on the key, battle-
ground and senate seat states to ensure sound programs were devised and the
organizations to put them into effect were in place. Some 75 of our 1701
staff and 25 from the RNC are in these states to assist in organizing the
GOTV efforts. Reports from our staff over the weekend indicate that the
organizations are in place and ready. Generally, our fieldmen indicate
that the preparation is good to excellent. High lights from these reports
are set out below.
California: Preparations is excellent - probably the best in the
country. The California leadership claims to have 167,844 volunteers
recruited for election day. These volunteers will be used on over
2,000 phones and for the massive victory squad effort to go door to
door on election day. GOTV Workshop sessions have been held over
the entire state for the last ten days. The strength of this effort
should result in a margin of 10 points.
- 2 -
Texas: Texas was late in getting organized and in commencing their
canvassing effort and in terminating. their canvassing. Therefore,
Get Out The Vote organization is late and not well organized. The
GOTV program will consist of reminder calls on election eve and
election day, concentrating on 450,000 favorables in the 27 largest
counties. This, combined with the President's overwhelming popularity,
should assure us of a30 point margin.
New York: The organization is in place. Governor Rockefeller reports
all is ready and found no apathy in his blitz across the state over the
weekend. Even Bixby calls a victory by 16 points.
Illinois: The fine canvassing organization has shifted gears and is
ready for GOTV activity. It is the opinion of. the Illinois leader-
ship that 96 of the state's 102 counties are in excellent condition
for GOTV, with the remaining 6 small downstate counties being adequate.
The Nixon organization will be manning over 3,000 phones on election
day while the Ogilvie campaign will be fielding several thousand
precinct workers. All are confident of the ballot security arrange-
ments in Cook County and East St. Louis. I look for a 16 point
margin here which should pull Ogilvie in.
Pennsylvania: Although the Committee for the Re-election had a relative-
ly poor canvassing effort, it is now ready for an outstanding voter
turnout program. One of my fieldmen is directing the machinery and
reports that 4,180 telephones have been secured, along with over 10,000
volunteers recruited for election day work. In addition, Mayor Rizzo
has put out the word for his ward helpers to win or else loose their
patronage rights. This should result in a 18 point margin.
Ohio: Ohio's Republican party has traditionally been one of the most
strongly organized in the country; and will live up to its reputation
in this election. The President's visit stimulated get out the vote
activity in Northern Ohio. Mayor Perk is actively working to deliver
the Cleveland area. Election day phone contacts will generally only
be made to Republicans since many local GOP leaders are concentrating
on local races. In addition, a controversial referendum concerning
repeal of the income tax will increase voter turnout generally. We
should win Ohio by a 20 point margin.
Massachusetts: While the canvass reached less than 20% of the house-
holds, extensive voter turnout preparations have been made in the 121
key townships to turn out the Republicans and other identified favor-
ables (1,500 phones and volunteers to use them) However, this
is too little, too late, and will not be enough to win the state.
New Jersey: The county CRP and GOP organizations are ready -- 1,100
phones, 4,200 volunteers, and 468 target voters as well as all
Republicans are ready to go in the 9 key counties containing 70%
of the population. I look for a strong turnout and a 20 point margin.
- 3 -
Michigan: Chairman Jack Gibbs considers this the strongest GOTV
effort he has seen; and points up that controversial abortion and
properly tax referendums will help turn out the vote. However,
since much of the organizational effort depends on home phones, we
cannot evaluate how well the job will be done; and must rate the
preparation as only fair. I expect the state to be close, with a
Nixon victory of about of about 2 to 3 points.
Connecticut: Connecticut traditionally has high voter turnout for
Presidential elections. Our Re-election campaign seems well prepared
for making sure our supporters are. included in this turnout and that
the President carries the state. There seems to be adequate evidence
that the voting districts are covered by the local organization - with
at least two phones for each district in homes, or headquarters and
with ample numbers of callers as well as a minimum of five volunteers
for our election day activity. We will have extensive poll checking
to identify the approximately 100,000 target households which our
campaign will contact with reminder calls on election day. I am
looking for a 20 point spread.
Wisconsin: The Wisconsin leadership has used a "Key Cities" program
and claims to have contacted some 650,000 homes. They estimate that
80% of the favorables identified will get an election day call. Be-
cause we cannot accurately evaluate the strength of our GOTV, plus
the strength of the McGovern organization left over from the primary,
we consider this to be a very close race.
Other states such as Maryland, Washington, Oregon, Missouri and West Virginia
have extensive efforts on the drawing board and should be able to turn out
the President's supporters.
In summary, our field reports are optimistic about our ability to move our
voters on election day and that the organizations are not apathetic as we
feared might be the case. I am satisfied that the GOTV job to insure the
President's victory and build the plurality will be done.
FIELD PROJECTIONS OF THE VOTE
I asked our regional directors and state chairmen to project the vote in
each of their states. While these projections are not as scientific as the
polling data, I thought you would be interested in how they see the election.
(000 Omitted)
Total Number of Registered Voters
98,183
Estimated Turnout
82,302
% Turnout
84%
4
Nixon Vote
48,660
% Nixon
59%
Plurality
15,465
% Victory
18%
States Won
49
Electoral Votes
521 Nixon/17 McGovern
The state by state breakout is at Tab A. We, like most of the polls, are
calling a 49 state victory with only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia
in the loss column.
I believe our margins can actually be larger than this in many of the states;
but the final margins will be determined by whether the hardshell Democrats
who support the President can actually pull the Republican lever. If there
is much last minute switching, we could possibly see Wisconsin, West Virginia
and Michigan slide into the loss column. I do not think it will happen, but
it is possible.
*
*
In summary, the GOTV efforts are sound, and we will turn out the President's
supporters. Forty-nine states should support the President - the major
question is the size of the plurality. Here the voter turn out effort will
help, but the key determinate will be the number of Democrats who go home.
TAB À
Expected
Estimated
Estimated
Turnout
Nixon Vote
Margin
Elec-
Estimated
% of
toral
Regis-
% of
Turn-
State
Votes
tration
Reg.
Voters
out
Votes
%
Votes
Alabama
9
1,774,505
69
1,225,000
70
860,000
40
490,000
Alaska*
3
140,505
76
107,000
60
65,000
20
20,000
Arizona
6
820,000
78
640,000
64
410,000
28
180,000
Arkansas
6
1,110,396
66
730,000
58
425,000
16
115,000
California
45
10,400,000
84
8,750,000
55
4,800,000
10
875,000
Colorado
7
1,211,224
84
1,020,000
60
610,000
20
200,000
Connecticut
CO
1,507,603
89
1,340,000
60
800,000
20
270,000
Delaware*
3
293,078
84
245,000
61
150,000
22
55,000
D.C.*
3
305,072
68
210,000
22
45,000
(56)
(120,000)
Florida*
17
3,487,458
74
2,575,000
67
1,725,000
34
875,000
Georgia
12
2,150,000
63
1,350,000
67
900,000
34
460,000
Hawaii
4
340,000
86
290,000
57
165,000
14
40,000
Idaho*
4
404,148
89
360,000
65
230,000
30
110,000
S
Illinois
26
6,215,331
80
5,000,000
58
2,900,000
16
800,000
Indiana
13
3,350,000
69
2,300,000
63
1,450,000
26
600,000
Iowa
8
NA
NA
1,250,000
64
800,000
28
356,000
Kansas
7
1,650,730
55
900,000
65
585,000
30
270,000
Kentucky
9
1,650,000
67
1,100,000
64
700,000
28
310,000
Louisiana
10
1,783,000
71
1,275,000
68
870,000
36
460,000
Maine
4
576,915
74
425,000
60
255,000
20
85,000
TAB A
Expected
Estimated
Estimated
Turnout
Nixon Vote
Margin
Elec-
Estimated
% of
toral
Regis-
% of
Turn-
State
Votes
tration
Reg.
Voters
out
Votes
%
Votes
Maryland*
10
1,815,784
74
1,350,000
60
810,000
20
270,000
Massachusetts
14
3,160,518
82
2,600,000
47
1,225,000
(6)
(150,000)
Michigan
21
4,600,000
78
3,600,000
51
1,835,000
2
70,000
Minnesota
10
NA
NA
1,700,000
54
920,000
8
140,000
Mississippi
7
NA
NA
725,000
70
510,000
40
290,000
Missouri
12
NA
NA
2,000,000
61
1,225,000
22
440,000
Montana
4
382,000
83
315,000
62
195,000
24
75,000
Nebraska
5
772,241
76
585,000
64
375,000
28
165,000
Nevada
3
231,037
81
185,000
57
105,000
14
25,000
New Hampshire
4
423,822
75
320,000
63
200,000
26
85,000
New Jersey*
17
3,667,329
79
2,900,000
60
1,750,000
20
580,000
New Mexico
4
452,800
74
335,000
59
200,000
18
60,000
New York*
41
9,270,363
79
7,325,000
58
4,250,000
16
-1,175,000
&
North Carolina
13
2,357,645
79
1,865,000
66
1,225,000
32
600,000
North Dakota
3
NA
NA
260,000
62
160,000
24
60,000
Ohio
25
5,500,000
78
4,300,000
60
2,575,000
20
860,000
Oklahoma
8
1,247,157
79
985,000
65
640,000
30
300,000
Oregon*
6
1,198,996
84
1,010,000
55
555,000
10
100,000
Pennsylvania
27
6,100,000
84
5,125,000
59
3,025,000
18
925,000
Rhode Island
4
531,847
79
420,000
56
235,000
12
50,000
Expected
Estimated
Estimated
Turnout
Nixon Vote
Margin
Elec-
Estimated
% of
toral
Regis-
% of
Turn-
State
Votes
tration
Reg.
Voters
out
Votes
%
Votes
South Carolina
8
1,033,688
74
765,000
68
520,000
36
275,000
South Dakota*
4
351,316
81
285,000
56
160,000
12
35,000
Tennessee*
10
1,990,026
68
1,350,000
65
875,000
30
400,000
Texas
26
5,500,000
76
4,000,000
65
2,600,000
30
1,200,000
Utah
4
543,364
89
485,000
65
315,000
30
145,000
Vermont
3
238,612
73
175,000
62
110,000
24
40,000
Virginia*
12
2,107,367
74
1,560,000
66
1,025,000
32
500,000
Washington*
9
1,975,382
78
1,550,000
54
840,000
8
125,000
West Virginia
6
1,038,587
76
790,000
57
450,000
14
110,000
Wisconsin
11
2,840,000
64
1,825,000
51
925,000
2
35,000
Wyoming
3
138,936
89
125,000
64
80,000
28
35,000
TOTALS
538
98,638,782
NA
81,907,000
59
48,660,000
18
*15,465,000
*
Final registration figures
THE WHITE HOUSE
belactions like.
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Malek's Canvassing Report
This wrap-up report indicates Malek's grass roots organization
has contacted enough voters, either by telephone or in person,
to assure the President's re-election. As the previous reports
have indicated, California, Connecticut, Illinois and Texas
have done the best organization job. In New York, New Jersey,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, the number of "favorables"
canvassed was not as high as hoped. However, Malek is confident
other compensating factors will assure these states for the
President.
Magruder and Malek decided to release to the press the existence
of the Canvass Control Room over the weekend. This room moni-
tored the progress of the canvass during the campaign. The
resulting AP story was neutral but with a few negative comments
regarding the similarity to a brokerage house stock transaction
recording system.
of
the
President
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MACGREGOR
FROM:
FRED MALEK
SUBJECT:
Final Canvassing Results
This memorandum reports the final results of the door to door and telephone
voter identification canvass. While a small amount of canvassing has not yet
been reported, these additional contacts will not materially change this
final tally.
The results are as follows:
(000 Omitted)
Total Households in the U. S.
63,316
Total Households in Priority Counties
48,149
Total Households Contacted Door to Door
16,075
% Priority Households Canvassed Door to Door
33%
Total Households Contacted by Phone
6,543
Total Households Contacted Door to Door
andby Phone
22,618
% Total Households Contacted
36%
% Households in Priority Counties Contacted
47%
Compared to last week, the number of households contacted door to door
increased by 4,512,000 or 39%. The number of households contacted by
telephone increased by 1,572,000 or 31.5%. The total number of households
contacted door to door or by telephone increased by 6,084,000 or 36.8%, which
is a comparable increase to that achieved in the three previous weeks.
Through these efforts, contact has been made with some 45. million voters, and
roughly 25 million favorable to the President have been identified. Combining
this with registered Republicans and adjusting for probable overlap, we have
identified approximately 35 million favorables to be turned out on election
day. Assuming an 80 million total turn out, the identified favorables repre-
sent 87% of the voters required for a victory. Thus, we have more than
adequate insurance against any voter apathy problem.
- 2 -
KEY STATE RESULTS
Key state results are particularly good as shown below: (000 Omitted)
Number of Households in Priority Counties
25,924
Households Canvassed Door to Door
8,284
% Priority County Households Canvassed
Door to Door
32%
Households Canvassed by Phone
6,543
% Priority County Households Canvassed
by Phone
25.9%
Total Households Canvassed
14,827
% Priority County Households Canvassed
57%
The results in all key states are acceptable (See Tab A). All states have
canvassed at least 38% of the households in priority precincts and some have
performed considerably better - California 83%, Connecticut 86%, Illinois
76%, Texas 75%. In other states, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania
and Maryland, the favorables identified in the canvass are supplemented by
large numbers of registered Republicans for voter turn out purposes. Only.
Michigan with 38.5% of the households canvassed in priority counties cannot
supplement its canvass with registration lists.
In short, the key states conducted excellent voter identification canvasses;
the only issue now is whether we have done as good a job in organizing our
get out the vote effort. I feel that we have and that we will turn out the
major portion of our favorables tomorrow.
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
The final canvassing results in other battleground states are also good.
1,929,000 or 30.0% of the 6,448,000 households in the priority counties were
contacted. (See Tab B for state by state canvass totals.) The canvassing
effort was below par in only two of the states - Massachusetts and West
Virginia. As previously mentioned, both states were originally throwaways
and consequently, were organized late and somewhat underfunded. Unfortunately,
Massachusetts now appears to be the only loss state; and a stronger canvassing
effort could have helped to close the gap. The President's lead in West
Virginia should hold up in spite of the lack of a strong canvass. But, Arch
Moore may suffer because we lack a large pool of favorable voters to turn out
for the President. In the remaining states, the canvassing effort has identified
a sufficient number of supporters to insure victory in each state if we have
a good voter turn out effort.
The final results for the remaining states are summarized by Regional Director
at Tab C.
*
*
-- 3 -
In summary, I consider the voter identification canvass as successful.
Assuming two voters per household contacted, we reached 45 million voters
in some way with this level of activity. I have no doubt that the two
central purposes of the canvass were fulfilled
(1) we identified enough
of the President's supporters to fuel an effective voter turn out effort;
and (2) because of the canvass, the states had to put a working organization
in place, which in turn, insures a strong election day effort. While all
states did not perform as well as they might have, the key and battleground
states where canvassing could have meant the difference, performed well
beyond our expectations of early July.
Attachments
TAB A
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB A
KEY STATES
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CALIF.
5,047,704
2,891,130
57.3
1,303,278
25.8
83.1
CONN.
730,997
402,041
54.9
204,543
30.7
35.6
ILL.
2,604,869
1,247,949
47.9
225,168
27.9
75.8
MD.
935,627
240,815
25.7
255,981
27.4
53.1
N.J.
6660,037
342,208
20.6
285,840
17.8
38.4
N.Y.
4,902,038
779,352
15.9
1,190,981
243
40.2
OHIO
2,573,045
744,456
28.9
447,971
17.4
46.3
PA.
3,095,630
544,721
11.1
863,633
281
39.2
TEXAS
2,270,018
908,805
40.0
812,928
35.8'
75.8
MICH.
2,103,959
382,350
18.2
426,555
20.3
38.5
TOTALS
25,923,924
8,283,827
32.0
6,542,831
25.1
57.1
TAB B
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB B
BATTLEGROUND STATES
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
Missouel
1,184,870
413,274
34.9
MASS.
1,177,833
207,192
17.6
MINN.
833,676
210,525
25.3
WASH.
857,966
255,113
29.7
OREGON
525,467
235,406
44.8
W.VIe.
414,372
29,545
7.1
WISL.
1,453,430
578,336
39.8
TOTALS
6,447,614
1,929,391
30.0
TAB C
BROWN
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB C
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ALABAMA
642,865
185,856
28.9
ARKANSAS
433,704
133,722
30.8
GEORGIA
745,213.
32,978
44
LA.
712,485
77,375
10.9
MISS.
403,784
351,379
87.0
S.CAR.
524,337
207,859
38.7
TOTALS
3,462,388
984,169
28.4
COLLINS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CALIFORNIA
5,047, 704
2,891,130
57.3
1,303,278
25.8
83.1
TOTALS
GOOCH
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households.
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
New York
4,902,038
779,352
15.9
1,190,981
24.3
40.2
PA.
3,095,630
344,721
11.1
868,683
28.1
39.2
TOTALS
7,997,668
1,124,073
14.0
2,059,664
25.8
39.8
KAUPINEN
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CONN.
730,997
402,041
54.9
224,543
30.7
85.6
In.
2,604,869
1,247,949
47.9
726,168
27.9
75.8
MAINE
238,070
75,318
31.6
MASS.
1,177,833
207,192
17.5
NEN Name
174,935
123,208
70.4
JERMONT
107,077
54,762
51.1
R.I.
232,456
42,852
18.4
TOTALS
5,766,237
2,153,322
40.8
950,711
18.1
58.9
MOSIMAN
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
INDIANA
1,174,407
807,742
68.7
MICHIGAN
2,103,959
382,350
18.2
OHIO
2,573,045
744,456
28.9
447,971
17.4
46.3
WISCONSIN
1,453,430
578,336
39.8
TOTALS
7,304,841
2,512,884
20.7
447,971
6-1
26.8
MURRAY
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
DELAWARE
141,436
39,176
27.7
27.7
MARYLAND
935,627
240,815
25.7
255,984
27.4
55.1
New Jeesey
1,660,037
342,208
20.6
295,840
17.8
38.4
D.C.
197,000
16,376
8.3
8.3
TOTALS
2,934,100
638,575
21.8
551,824
18.8
40.6
REED
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ARIZONA
413,000
51,104
12.4
COLORADO
549,841
702,298
120.0
HAWAII
165,000.
49,771
30.2
New MEX.
284,000
67,845
30.3
TEXAS
2,270,018
908,805
40.0
812,928
35.8
75.8
TOTALS
3,621,879
1,779,823
49.1
812,928
22.4
71.5
RICHARDS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ALASKA
58,294
9,053
15.5
IDANO
164,127
54,621
33.3
MONTANA
170,319
67,384
39.6
NEVNDA
129,490
60,581
46.8
OCEGON
525,467
235,406
44.8
WTAH
242,724
127,616
52.6
WASH.
852,966
255,103
29.7
WYOMING
83,860
85,805
102.3
TOTALS
2,231,747
$95,609
40.1
SAWERS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
FLORIDA
1,667,263
443,380
26.6
KENTUCKY
893,996
365,013
40:8
Missouri
1,184,870
413,274
34.9
N.Cne.
1,633,775
118,184
7.2
TENN.
841,555
270,561
32.2
VICGINIA
919,324
231,995
25.2
WEST VA.
414,372
29,545
7.1
TOTALS
6,955,155
1,871,952
26.9
YEUTTER
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
IOWA
574,000
400,101
69.7
KANSAS
573,505
193,855
33.8
MINN.
883,676
210,525
23.8
NEB.
376,995
67,557
17.9
N.D.
140,592
122,525
87.1
OKLA.
632,018
215,817
34.2
S.D.
155,947
47,123
30.2
TOTALS
3,327,733
1,257,503
37.8
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Malek's Canvassing Report
This wrap-up report indicates Nalek's grass roots organization
has contacted enough voters, either by telephone or in person,
to assure the President's re-election. As the previous reports
have indicated, California, Connecticut, Illinois and Texas
have done the best organization job. In New York, New Jersey,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, the number of "favorables"
canvassed was not as high as hoped. However, Malek is confident
other compensating factors will assure these states for the
President.
Magruder and Malek decided to release to the press the existence
of the Canvass Control ROOM ofer the weekend. This room moni-
tored the progress of the canvass during the campaign. The
resulting AP story was neutral but with a few negative comments
regarding the similarity to a brokerage house stock transaction
recording system.
GS/jb
of the President
1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202)
November 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MACGREGOR
FROM:
FRED MALEK
SUBJECT:
Final Canvassing Results
This memorandum reports the final results of the door to door and telephone
voter identification canvass, While a small amount of canvassing has not yet
been reported, these additional contacts will not materially change this
final tally.
The results are as follows:
(000 Omitted)
Total Households in the U. S.
63,316
Total Households in Priority Counties
48,149
Total Households Contacted Door to Door
16,075
% Priority Households Canvassed Door to Door
33%
Total Households Contacted by Phone
6,543
Total Households Contacted Door to Door
andby Phone
22,618
% Total Households Contacted
36%
% Households in Priority Counties Contacted
47%
Compared to last week, the number of households contacted door to door
increased by 4,512,000 or 39%. The number of households contacted by
telephone increased by 1,572,000 or 31.5%. The total number of households
contacted door to door or by telephone increased by 6,084,000 or 36.8%, which
is a comparable increase to that achieved in the three previous weeks.
Through these efforts, contact has been made with some 45. million voters, and
roughly 25 million favorable to the President have been identified. Combining
this with registered Republicans and adjusting for probable overlap, we have
identified approximately 35 million favorables to be turned out on election
day. Assuming an 80 million total turn out, the identified favorables repre-
sent 87% of the voters required for a victory. Thus, we have more than
adequate insurance against any voter apathy problem.
- 2 -
KEY STATE RESULTS
Key state results are particularly good as shown below: (000 Omitted)
Number of Households in Priority Counties
25,924
Households Canvassed Door to Door
8,284
% Priority County Households Canvassed
Door to Door
32%
Households Canvassed by Phone
6,543
% Priority County Households Canvassed
by Phone
25.9%
Total Households Canvassed
14,827
% Priority County Households Canvassed
57%
The results in all key states are acceptable (See Tab A). All states have
canvassed at least 38% of the households in priority precincts and some have
performed considerably better - California 83%, Connecticut 86%, Illinois
76%, Texas 75%. In other states, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania
and Maryland, the favorables identified in the canvass are supplemented by
large numbers of registered Republicans for voter turn out purposes. Only.
Michigan with 38.5% of the households canvassed in priority counties cannot
supplement its canvass with registration lists.
In short, the key states conducted excellent voter identification canvasses;
the only issue now is whether we have done as good a job in organizing our
get out the vote effort. I feel that we have and that we will turn out the
major portion of our favorables tomorrow.
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
The final canvassing results in other battleground states are also good.
1,929,000 or 30.0% of the 6,448,000 households in the priority counties were
contacted. (See Tab B for state by state canvass totals.) The canvassing
effort was below par in only two of the states - Massachusetts and West
Virginia. As previously mentioned, both states were originally throwaways
and consequently, were organized late and somewhat underfunded. Unfortunately,
Massachusetts now appears to be the only loss state; and a stronger canvassing
effort could have helped to close the gap. The President's lead in West
Virginia should hold up in spite of the lack of a strong canvass. But, Arch
Moore may suffer because we lack a large pool of favorable voters to turn out
for the President. In the remaining states, the canvassing effort has identified
a sufficient number of supporters to insure victory in each state if we have
a good voter turn out effort.
The final results for the remaining states are summarized by Regional Director
at Tab C.
*
*
*
3 -
In summary, I consider the voter identification canvass as successful.
Assuming two voters per household contacted, we reached 45 million voters
in some way with this level of activity. I have no doubt that the two
central purposes of the canvass were fulfilled
(1) we identified enough
of the President's supporters to fuel an effective voter turn out effort;
and (2) because of the canvass, the states had to put a working organization
in place, which in turn, insures a strong election day effort. While all
states did not perform as well as they might have, the key and battleground
states where canvassing could have meant the difference, performed well
beyond our expectations of early July.
Attachments
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB A
KEY STATES
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CALIF.
5,047,704
2,891,130
57.3
1,303,278
25.8
83.1
CONN.
730,997
402,841
54.9
224,545
3.7
35.6
ILL.
2,604,869
1,247,949
47.9
726,168
27.9
75.8
mo.
935,627
240,815
25.,
255,981
27.4
53.1
N.J.
1,660,037
342,203
20.6
295,840
17.8
38.4
N.Y.
4,902,038
779,352
15.9
1,190,981
243
40.2
OHIO
2,573,045
744,456
28.9
447,971
17.4
46.3
PA.
3,095,630
544,721
11.1
868,683
281
39.2
TEXAS
2,2-70, 018
908,805
40.0
812,928
35.8
75.8
MICN.
2,103,959
382,350
18.2
426,555
23.3
38.5
TOTALS
25,923,924
8,283,827
32.0
6,542,831
25.1
57.1
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB B
BATTLEGROUND STATES
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households.
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
Missouel
1,184,870
413,274
34.9
MASS
1,177,833
207,192
17.6
MINN.
833,676
210,525
25.3
WASH.
857, 966
255,113
29.7
OREGON
525,467
235,406
448
W.VIe.
414,372
29,545
7.1
WISL.
1,453,430
578,336
39.8
TOTALS
6,447,614
1,929,391
30.0
BROWN
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB C
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ALABAMA
642,865 642, 865
185,856
289
ARMANSAS
433,704
133,722
30.8
GEORGIA
745,213.
32,978
44
LA.
712,485
77,375
10.9
miss.
403,784
351,379
87.0
S.CAR.
524,337
202,859
38.7
TOTALS
3,462,388
984,169
284
COLLINS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CALIFORNIA
5,047, 704
2,891,130
57.3
1,303,278
25.8
83.1
TOTALS
GOOCH
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households.
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
New York
4,902,038
779,352
15.9
1,190,981
24.3
40.2
PA.
3,095,630
344,721
11.1
868,683
28.1
39.7
TOTALS
7,977,668
1,124,073
14.0
2,059,664
25.8
39.8
KAUPINEN
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
CONN.
730,997
402,041
54.9
224,543
30.7
85.6
In.
2,604,869
1,247,949
47.9
726,168
27.9
75.8
MAINE
238,070
75,318
31.6
MASS.
1,177,833
207,192
17.5
NEN HAMP
174,935
123,208
70.4
JERMONT
107,077
54,762
51.1
R.I.
232,456
42,852
18.4
TOTALS
5,266,237
2,153,322
40.8
950,711
18.1
58.9
MOSIMAN
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
INDIANA
1,174,407
807,742
68.7
MICHIGAN
2,103,959
382,350
18.2
ONIO
2,573,045
744,456
28.9
447,971
17.4
46.3
WISCONSIN
1,453,430
578,336
39.8
TOTALS
7,304,841
2,512,884
20.7
447,971
6-1
26.8
MURRAY
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households.
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
DELAWARE
141,436
39,176
27.7
27.7
MARYLAND
935,607
240,815
25.7
255,984
27.4
53.1
NEW Jacsey
1,660,037
342,208
20.6
295,840
17.8
38.4
D.C.
197,000
16,376
8.3
8.5
TOTALS
2,934,100
638,575
21.8
551,824
18.8
40.6
REED
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ARIZONA
413,000
51,104
12.4
CHORADO
549,841
702,298
120.0
HAWAII
165,000.
49,771
30.2
New May.
284,000
67,845
30.3
TEXAS
2,270,018
908,805
40.0
812,928
35.8
75.8
TOTALS
3,621,879
1,779,823
49.1
812,928
22.4
71.5
RICHARDS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
ACASKA
58,294
9,053
15.5
IDANO
104,127
54,621
33.3
MONTANA
170,319
67,384
39.6
Novnon
129,490
60,581
46.8
Ocsson
525,467
235,406
44.8
WTAN
242,724
127,616
52.6
WASH,
857,966
255,103
29.7
WYOMING
83,860
85,805
102.3
TOTALS
2,231,747
$95,609
40.1
SAWERS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households.
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
FLORIDA
1,667,263
443,380
26.6
KENTUCKY
893,996
365,013
40:8
Missouri
1,184,870
413,274
34.9
N.Coc.
6633,775
118,184
7.2
TRNN.
841,555
270,561
32.2
VISGINIA
919,324
231,995
25.2
Wast VA.
414,372
29,545
7.1
TOTALS
4,955,155
1,871,952
26.9
YEUTTER
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counties
IOWA
574,000
400,101
69.7
KANSAS
573,505
193,855
33.8
MINN.
883,676
210,525
23.8
NOB.
376,995
67,557
17.9
N.D.
140,592
122,525
87.1
OKLA.
632,018
215,817
34.2
S.D.
155,947
47,123
30.2
TOTALS
3,322,733
1,257,503
37.8
Committee
for the Re-election
of the President 1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920
11/6/72
Bob,
The fortup on the stations
listed in the term-in ads
was entirely my fault. I hope
caught the rest. The
network we spots we are meming
should help.
cl sorry we had to end
ou such a sour note.
Regards
Acte
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
November 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. CLARK MAC GREGOR
THROUGH:
MR. JEB S. MAGRUDER
FROM:
L. ROBERT MORGAN GAN,
SUBJECT:
Canvass/Telephone Sheets
We have had inquiries from the Committee staffs in California,
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas for the canvass and telephone
lists in the keypunch centers. When we are through putting
the volunteers on these sheets on the computer, we will have no
need for them.
The states already have copies of all of this information since
they have retained copies for their use.
RECOMMENDATION:
That the canvass/telephone lists be given to the states if they
request it. If requests are not received by November 10th, our
copies will be destroyed.
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
COMMENTS
CC: Dr. Robert H. Marik
MUMOR
MMM
NR. JED S. MAGRUDER - FYI
CLEVOS
SUBJECT:
Cardiadon Windup Report
One of the products which I would like fro yes before Cormittions
activity virls down 03 November is is a Actailed description of
how evental of ( 1 yes CCT NAME, This VIII
be for the present pus of should becautf diuntly
11
to vienes ..intd in
this compaign. It should, in general, describe the following:
what vas done in 1972 in your area of responsibility; and
description vist you level no, that you vould Lave dette
differencly.
The following is one possible outline for those reports -- this
is intended as a guide only:
I. Overall Objectives and Goals
In which states?
II. Action Plan
Calendar of key events; completion dates.
III. Resources Utilized
Budget
Staffing - Number and type (creative, production,
field, etc.)
Facilities, Computers, etc.
Outside Services, Vendors
IV.
Con 0000 Michmonts
Total achievements
of ackieving accountability, reporting results
V. with Other National Committee Divisions and
State Conseittees
Significant contact with which divisions? Which states?
Nature and purpose of contacts
VI. Advice If Compaign Were to Begin Over Again Today
For improvement of objectives
-To2 organize deprevenent
Ter improved allecations and amounts of resources
(ledget, staff, etc.)
e- withed of eperation
Regarding timing of Ley events and action stops
Regarding place of activity in the campaign
You ray liberally refer to reterial alrendy prepared during
the compaign; please include as attachments to your report.
Without Guindiching your efforts in the final days of the campaign,
you should begin to draw together ideas to be included in your
report and relevant 110 torials used during the campaign which should
be appeared LC the firal document.
The project manager For this post-slection report in Lob Marik.
lie is accilable to discuss it with you at any time.
On another subject, I would lite you to pet all the files in your
Division ready by November 15 for transmission to a. central point
within the Committee where they will be stored. Ultimately, they
will be housed in the Nixon Library although that will not be for
some time. However, we do want all the files and papers relating
to each Division.
Rob Odle will be sending out a memorandum on this subject in the near
future and Marths Duscan vill provide you with uniform packing cases
and for on of aprèt vock. If you h: ve any questions
C.:
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 28, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Jock Whitney
Dan Hofgren called to say that Jock Whitney is
not exactly pleased to have been invited to the
Douglas Home Dinner tomorrow night. Whitney is
bored and wonders why he was invited. Walter Thayer
told Hofgren that "you would have done Whitney a
favor by not inviting him."
Hofgren says the entire crowd - Whitney, Thayer,
Paley, etc.- are all bored and disenchanted.
Before Whitney was invited Alex called me to
find out whether he had contributed. Tom Evans
reported that Whitney was in for 10 with 100
promised but not yet delivered.
Hofgren is concerned that Whitney, Thayer, Paley, etc.
just might agree with the New York Times endorsement
of McGovern. Hofgren will have lunch with Walter
Thayer in New York to work against this possibility.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Terrill
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
California Endorsements
Harry Dent and Cap Weinberger are appealing the decision
not to send Presidential endorsements to California
Assemblymen. Instead of the twenty originally submitted,
they suggest the eight described in the attached memo-
randum.
A check with Nofziger indicates that these eight would
be helpful even at this late date. He pointedly reminded
me that he and Governor Reagan had strongly urged letters
to the original twenty.
Nofziger noted with a certain vindictive pleasure that he
had succeeded in obtaining one endorsement for Charles
Conrad, an Assembly candidate in a particularly close
race. Nofziger would not disclose how he did it but said
he would have drafted and signed a letter from the President
himself if he had to.
The suggested draft for the eight is attached.
Recommendation:
That you approve the attached draft Presidential letter
of endorsement to the eight California Assembly candidates.
Approve
Disapprove
Comments
Topent
drop pay
11/3
ship
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 31, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. Haldeman
FROM:
Harry S. Dent
IN
SUBJECT:
PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENTS
California State GOP Chairman, Putnam Livermore, has urged that we
send telegrams of endorsement to the following Assemblymen who are in
very close and critical races:
CLARE BERYHILL
KEITH MILLER
P.O. Box 3349
16525 E. Whittier Blvd.
Modesto, California 95353
Whittier, California 90603
GARY ANTOLININI
WILLIAM DANNEMEYER
1049 4th Street
9254 W. Katella Street
Santa Rosa, California 95404
Anahein, California 92804
TED LONG
ROBERT HUNTER
861 San Bruno Avenue
3636 University Avenue
San Bruno, California 94066
Riverside, California 92502
DON MacGILLIVRAY
RON DelPRINCEPE
821 State Street
7244 Clairemont Mesa Blvd.
Santa Barbara, California 93102
San Diego, California 92111
JOHN CONLAN
528 South A Street
Oxnard, California 93030
Republicans are only two seats from controlling the Senate and six in the
Assembly. Control of the California Legislature would be a tribute to the
President in this election.
Endorsement of local candidates
STRAIGHTWIRE--
(date)
[message is designed to be sent to someone other than
the candidate- - to be read at rollies and/or excerpted
for ads]
Best wishes to Guame of condidate)
in his/her race for
(the State assembly /Senate, etc.) The people of
(California's Inflh Dictrict etc) deserve the finest possible
representation in (Saeramento)
, and you have a candidate
whose record of accomplishment and devotion to duty
credit
to the Republican and merit the support of all our citizens.
Let's get out the vote on November 7 and demonstrate our
commitment to good government by electing (name of candidate)
RICHARD NEXON
RN:MAAllin:RLE:
try writing P one
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
November 2, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Campaign Reading
Four interesting items have been submitted recently that
you may want to read. The first two are reports by Fred
Malek on the Canvass efforts and Get Out the Vote Kick off.
The Canvass report indicates that 1/3 of the priority
counties in the key states have been contacted in person
or by telephone. In California more than 1/2 of the
households in the priority counties have been contacted.
The poorest key state performances have been in New
York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. (Full report at
Tab A.)
Malek's Get Out the Vote memorandum describes the activities
on October 28. Be claims 10,000 volunteers received train-
ing, that the local media coverage was good, and that
technically there were few problems. (Full report at Tab B.)
Harry Dent prepared a report on the Evans & Novak Political
Forum that MacGregor attended with Scammon, O'Brien, and
Caddell. The most interesting notes are:
1) Evans projects 524 electoral votes for the
President. McGovern only has Massachusetts and D.C. The
McGovern campaign never got off the ground because of his
vacillation, Eagleton, and O'Brien. Also, McGovern became
too specific on the issues too soon;
2) The Republicans have a slim chance to capture
the Senate, but will only pick up 20 House seets;
3) MacGregor predicts a low vote because of the
McGovern-Shriver "mud-slinging";
- 2 -
4) Pat Caddell, in a remarkably frank discussion,
says the people lost confidence in McGovern's handling
of Eagleton. He believes the President's landslide
will not indicate Democrats have abandoned their party
for the Republicans
5) Scanmon claims neither candidate is well-
liked, and that the President's problem is to get people
to trust him, and
6) O'Brien too loyal to McGovern to say anything
of real interest.
The report is attached at Tab C.
John Whitaker has submitted a memorandum on post-election
activities. Several of the suggestions are being imple-
mented. However, his ideas about directing the Cabinet
to go out into the country to listen, to send special
Ombudsmen such as Carlucci in Pennsylvania into the country,
and to capture the "substantive march on the Congress",
are quite interesting. Whitaker's memorandum is attached
at Tab D.
GS/jb
H
PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 (202) 333-0920
November 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
FRED MALEK 7m
SUBJECT:
Canvassing Results
OVERALL PROGRESS
This memorandum reports progress on the door-to-door canvass through
October 23rd and the telephone canvass through October 21st. The progress
is as follows:
(000 omitted)
Total Households in the U.S.
63,316
Total Households in Priority Counties
48,149
Total Households Contacted Door-to-Door
11,563
% Priority County Households Canvassed
24%
Total Households Contacted by Phone
4,971
Total Households Contacted by Phone
and Door-to-Door
16,534
% Priority County Households Canvassed
34%
Compared to last week, the number of households canvassed door-to-door
increased by 4, 350, 000 or 60%. The number of households contacted by
telephone increased by 1, 312,000 or 36%. The total number of households
contacted by telephone and door-to-door increased by 5, 663,000 or 52%.
This canvagsing effort has identified over 15 million voters who support the
President. When these voters are combined with the 15 million registered
Republicans, we have a pool of known favorables to turn out on election day
of some 25 to 30 million voters (depending on the amount of double counting
caused by canvassing Republicans door-to-door)
- 2 -
If the voter turn-out effort matches the canvass results, we will have licked
the apathy problem for the most part.
KEY STATE PROGRESS
In the key states, houscholds canvassed door-to-door increased by 2, 094, 000
or 49% and those canvassed by telephone, by 1, 313, 000 or 36%. Overall, we
have now contacted 11, 358, 000 households or 48% of the households in the
priority counties of key states. (See Tab A)
The results in all states are acceptable although some have performed much
better than others:
California has canvassed 2, 689, 000 households or 53% of the households
in priority counties. This effort coupled with the GOTV program now in the
works should assure a victory in California.
Illinois has canvassed 51. 4% of its priority houscholds. Again, this
should be enough to ensure a win in Illinois in spite of Daley's last minute push.
Texas claims 48. 3% of the households in the priority counties canvassed.
The telephone contacts are reliable; I seriously question their claims on door-
to-door. However, my staff has done some spot checking and has not yet
caught an obvious inflation of the figures. In any case, we are in a good
position to run an effective GOTV effort which should more than offset the
heavy new registration of Blacks and Spanish Speaking in Houston and Dallas.
New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have turned in the poorest
canvass performance. However, each of them have canvassed around 20%,
and each state allows party registration SO that we have a large pool of voters
to turn out. I am confident that both New York and New Jersey are organized
well enough to get the turn-out job done; Pennsylvania is not. Therefore, one
of our national fieldmen has been made the GOTV Chairman for Pennsylvania,
and we have sent about 30 people from 1701 to work in the counties. I am hope-
ful that this will take up the slack.
The remaining key states are in good shape, and I anticipate no problems with
them.
BATTLEGROUND STATES
The battleground states came in with a solid gain. Number of households can-
vassed increased from 536, 483 to 1, 314, 025 or by 144%, resulting in 15% of
the households in priority counties having been canvassed. (See Tab B). All
- 3 -
states are now over 10% except West Virginia and Wisconsin. Wisconsin
should improve substantially before the end of the election; households can-
vassed went up from zero to 134, 000 during the week. West Virginia will not
improve significantly, and we must count on turning out the Republicans in
West Virginia (over 300, 000) to give us the edge.
Progress to date in the remaining states is summarized by regional director
at Tab C.
*
*
*
We are now over the hump on canvassing. With one week of canvassing to
go - October 24th to October 28th - we have canvassed 16. 5 million house-
holds which exceeds our original expectations of 15 million. I do not expect
the results for the last week to continue at the same pace. The telephone
centers began to recruit for GOTV on the 23rd SO they are effectively out
of the voter identification business. Also, the door-to-door effort began to
slow down as the states prepared for the GOTV kick-off on the 28th. Thus,
the total number of households canvassed during the campaign should come
out around 18 million. Assuming two voters per household, we will have
reached 36 million voters in some way with our canvassing effort.
Attachments
Tab A
KEY STATES
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
TAB A
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total 7
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contact
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State/
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Countries
CALIFORNIA
5,047,704
2,391,130
474
1,303,278
25.8
:-
Common
730.977
179,000
24.5
154,502
211
if
2,604 867
1,075,738
42%
560,539
21.5
(
N
938,627
00,474
6.5
27.9
4
6663037
197,790
11.5
204,254
13.3
77
2
4,902,008
737676
15.0
912,779
18.6
/
2,573,045
650,10,
07573
338004
13.2
2,095,000
10.0
622,103
20.1
,
The
2,270,018
761,189
33.5
660,922
29.1
6
TOTALS
23,919,905
20.8
4,971,595
20.9
Tab B
BATTLEGROUND STATES
PROGRESS REPORT
TAB B
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total F
Number of
Number
Bouseholds
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Commol
1,184 870
173,000
1966
V.
1,177,833
120.50
10.4
853,676
144,951
M.4
Required
525,407
50.0
37
in
TOTALS
661,593
build
1015
Tab C
BROWN
PROCRESS REPORT
TAB C
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Bouscholds
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State/
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counti
640,865
:
149
433,704
74611
17.2
Gerum
745,213
5524
48
70,485
45,55
6.4
403,78%
Bill-
S.C
5211,337
100,001
20.8
TOTALS
3,114,407
Me
COLLINS
PROCRESS REPORT
ON
0002 VJ FOOK AND TELEPHONE CARVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Househ Lds
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Pri city
State,
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Connt
Any No
$047,704 704
3,391,130
47.4.
1,300,078
25.8
TOTALS
GOOCH
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DCOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State/
In Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counti
21,902,038
15:0
18.6
as
3,095,630
210,98
15:0
622,103
20.1
201
TOTALS
7,997,008
1603
had
1,524,402
19.2
KAUPINEN
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Tot il ;
Number of
Number
Househ his
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contract
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Primarity
State,
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counti
Count
730,997
177.002
215
1.54.530
21.7
2020
32.1
500,500
21.5
Minis
258,000
10.8
120
6177,033
10.4
176.00
into
107,077
10,001
1.3
TOTALS
2:0
715,470
Rib
MOSIMAN
PROCRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Househ 13
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacts.
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
la AV: (ty
State/
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Count
1,174,0107
253,700
23.7
MONTH
2,103,959
5,184
i
One
2,573,045
652,107
25.3
1,453,430
33
TOTALS
1,204,0011
Mr
MURRAY
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contract:
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
C,
141,436
33,147
335,627
60,471
C.5
2/1/2020 2101, 2.89
22.9
1,660,087
197,700
11.9
203/2019
12.3
197,000
138
7
TOTALS
2,031,100
2937
10.0
14.3
REED
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Households
households
Number of
Contacted
Centrac
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
in
State,
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Counti
Parina
413,000
22,29-
9.5
CHACADO
549,861
43,291
84
MR.M
165,000
31,000
29.1
dewMin
224,000
56,274
25.1
11
ans
12,070,018
761,181
30.15
600,92
29.1
TOTALS
3,621,879
1,377,90
36.0
600,00
29.1
RICHARDS
PROCRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Heaseh Mis
llouscholds
Number of
Contacted
Contaction
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Country
I
23,810
TOTALS
707
SAWERS
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contract
Number of Households
Contact si
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
State
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Count
Feena
4007,200
27%
n.y
873,770
50%
QuiD
:-
the
Nine
1,633,495
same
6.7
8111,500
17.5
919,324
205,600
18.0
Warlle.
4/11/372
47
TOTALS
6,955 155
1,108,29
15.9
YEUTTER
PROGRESS REPORT
ON
DOOR TO DOOR AND TELEPHONE CANVASSING
Total %
Number of
Number
Households
Households
Number of
Contacted
Contacted
Number of Households
Contacted
% Contacted In
Telephone
Priority
In Privity
State,
in Priority Counties
Door to Door
Priority Counties
Calls Made
Counties
Countries
IOWA
574,000
163811
28.5
573,505
94,08%
16.7
883,676
14479
16.4
Nob.
376,995
66,68'
17.7
140,572
15.8
are
632,018
105,504
16.7
S.OM.
155,947
47,12
Po.V
TOTALS
3337,733
713,605
21.4
Committee
for the De-election
of the Fresklent
1201 PENNSYLVANIA AVINUE, R.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20000 (202) 333-0920
November 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MACGREGOR
FROM:
FRED MALEK
nm
SUBJECT:
Report on "Get Out The Vote"
Kick Off
The purpose of the October 28 GOTV kick off was four fold:
- To cut off voter identification canvassing and force the states to
begin preparing for getting out the vote on Election Day.
I
To publicize the need for volunteers to help on Election Day.
-
To show our storefront and telephone center volunteers the high
priority we place on getting out the vote.
i
To build campaign enthusiasm in key states.
To achieve these purposes, the GOTV kick off was held in 44 areas in 22
key and battleground states. We used our most important surrogates to
visit the storefronts and telephone centers in these areas to talk about
the importance of GOTV and participate in the work to prepare for election
day, e.g., reminder calls and calls for volunteers. In most cases just
before or after the surrogate appearance, the training slide show was
shown and election day assignments were given to the volunteers gathered
for the workshops.
For the most part, the GOTV kick of accomplished its purpose:
1
It forced the gears to shift from canvassing to GOTV reminder calls
and election day recruitment. Over 10,000 volunteers were gathered
in the kick off headquarters for training, reminder calls and election
day assignments. Thousands more were recruited in other headquarters
throughout the country.
- We received excellent coverage in the local media although the
President's trip to Ohio precluded network coverage. Tab A summarizes
coverage in the local media. Our advancemen report that the evening
news shows save extensive coverage to the events. While press coverage
was good, we did not receive the front page coverage we got on
September 16.
- 2
-
The volunteers and local leadership were impressed that Administration
Officials and other surrogates would concentrate their attention on
them and mix with the troops. They particularly appreciated being
able to work with a surrogate rather than having to stand by and
cheer him.
-
Technically the day went well. The surrogates got there for the most
part; Holton was grounded by bad weather; Butz and Evans were late
arrivals. We have received no reports that a surrogate was unhappy.
The First Family events were outstanding - Julie, Tricia and Ed had
good, warm crowds. In fact, the volunteers they drew were the largest
of all the kick off areas. Each of them made phone calls to supporters;
and these conversations were well covered by the media.
In summary, I am satisfied with the kick off results. Again, it was a
cooperative effort at 1701 with the tour office, scheduling, the telephone
operation, several of the voter blocs working closely with the political
division and the RNC's political division to make the day a success.
However, while Saturday was a successful start at the community level on
voter turn out, the day pointed up that much still needs to be done. We
forced local attention on getting out the vote in the 44 areas, but there
was not enough activity in many other storefronts to recruit the volunteers
and find the telephones to operate on our ideal GOTV program.
To attack this problem, and to ensure GOTV preparations get underway, we
are taking the following action:
-
Locating Regional Directors full time in their most important
states through Election Day.
-
Deploying more Re-election Committee staff to important areas for
getting out the vote in close or weakly organized states.
1
Pushing a more simple and concentrated approach to voter turn out where
local organization is weak or late; this program consists exclusively
of a pre-election day reminder call to favorables identified in the
door to door/phone canvass and to all Republicans and an election day
contact at their homes.
Concentrating a special effort to locate the many additional phone banks
necessary to handle the large volume of reminder-to-vote phone calls.
For a really comprehensive program of voter contact on election day,
we estimate a need for four times the number of phones already in our
existing phone centers.
Directing that all voter bloc activity be exclusively focused on
producing volunteers for the voter turnout program in the priority
states.
- 3 -
Calling, beginning Thursday, the campaign chairmen and leaders in
target counties to thank them for their effort and to stress the
importance of getting every last vote to the polls. These will be
made by Cabinet wives and other women surrogates.
Finally, I will begin calling key state leaders to question them about
their get out the vote plans and to encourage them to keep the pressure
on. In addition, you and Bob Dole have call lists which should provide
encouragement to state Nixon and GOP leaders.
I will report to you later in the week where we stand on our overall get
out the vote efforts on a state by state basis and how effective I think
we will be in turning out the vote.
TAB A
WHEELING, WEST VIRGINIA - Dent
Had a press conference on GOTV. Fair turnout of volunteers. Cood coverage: 1 TV (NBC),
2 radio and 2 papers.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - Morgan Paull, Mrs. Bentley
Paull made comment to crowd that he was to make film soon with John Wayne and that
Wayne has told him "he'd be on Paull's back for the whole ten weeks they would be
making film if they didn't turnout the vote for the President and carry California."
Actually "kicked-off" - a football with kicker: Cong. Bob Wilson; receiver: State
Senator Kau and holder: Edith Green Black (assembly woman candidate from area) Very
good coverage: 2 tv stations (NBC, CBS), 2 radio stations and 2 papers (one was student
paper at San Diego State College).
PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND - Knauer
Visited three headquarters where well received and crowds were enthusiastic. Good
coverage: 3 TV stations, 1 radio and 2 papers. Generally got secondary attention
due to tight Senate race event which was also taking place.
HARIFORD, CONNECTICUT - Kleindienst, Stein, Ely
Visited four headquarters; volunteer turnout was adequate. Coverage was O.K. 3 papers,
no radio, apparently same TV coverage but it was not specified. Overall, response
was excellent and locals and surrogates were very pleased.
PEORIA, ILLINOIS - Mrs. Ehrlichman and Mrs. Hodgson
Visited two headquarters with good volunteer turnout. Both ladies well received. Locals
and press very impressed with both ladies. Press coverage was excellent and very
favorable: all three 1V stations, three radio stations and 2 papers.
EL PASO, TEXAS - Mrs. Banuelos
Visited two headquarters with good volunteer turnout; over 1/3 at phone center were
Spanish-speaking. Made about 6 phone calls and made brief remaids. Good coverage:
2 TV stations, 1 radio station and 1 paper (Horald Post interviewed).
PITTSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA - Klein
Visited to with very good volunteer turnont; volunteers very enthusiastic.
Made phone calls. Proellent press coverage: 3 IV stations, 2 radio stations, 2 papers,
UPI, AP; did "Milte Levine" show on radio.
GREEWITH NORTH CAROLINA - Stn. Gurney
Cave brief 143 talk and visited with volunteers (voluuteer turnout mediocre). Dad several
TV intervities at stations. Good response by older and middle age persons. Coverage:
4 TV stations, 5 milo stations cort 5 papers.
PORTLAND, OREGON - Ed Nixon
Short talk - well received. Visited with volunteers. Made 4 phone calls which were
picked up by radio and TV; two of calls were lifelong Democrats for Nixon. Very
heavy volunteer turnout at storefront. Good press coverage: Local NBC AND CBS and
local TV stations, radio, and both daily papers. General consensus was that event
was a success.
BUFFALO, NEW YORK - Rossides
Possides gave brief talk, made phone calls and generally mixed. Greeted by a band
at storefront. Heavy turnout of volunteers at storefront. two papers covered and an
Amsterdam TV crew.
ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI - Butz
Spoke to workers and made phone calls. Press took pixs and taped speech. All press
represented with exception of ABC; INCLUDED NBC, CBS, UPI, AP, radio, two dailys and
weekly. About 25 pickets outside storefront - union lettuce; Nixon people counteracted
with picket. Heavy volunteer turnout at storefront.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA --- Tom Evans
Stopped by two storefronts. Good volunteer turnout. Coverage was weak due to Evans
being 1 1/2 hours late. Originally had 3 TV stations and radio to cover, but most
left and resulted with coverage from only 1 TV station and 1 paper.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - Romney
Good volunteer turnout at both storefronts visited; very enthusiastic. Romney made
phone calls. Excellent coverage: 3 TV stations (ABC, NBC, CBS), 4 radio stations and
5 papers.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANTA - Volpe
Visited two headquarters, a phone bank and the Italian Market. Pointed out that he
was beaten by 1 vote per precinct when polls said he was ahead when he ran for
Governor of Mass. Made phone calls, met with union officials, met Italian candidates
and made personal visits in Democratic areas. Day considered a great success. Media
coverage lacking: no radio or TV; 3 papers.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - Shultz
Visited two storefronts. Good tunrout at one where crowd listened quietly and attentatively
The minority headquarters had only fair turnout. Reception vas"quietly enthusiastic.'
Good coverage: 3 TV and 3 radio stations, 3 papers, UPI.
ROCEVILLE, MERYLAND - Peterson and Desi Arnez
Good turnout of volunteers who were onthustactic and attentive. Overall response was
very positive. Good coverage: 1 TV, J. radio and 2 papers, AP.
DELAS, TXAS -- Ruckelships
Made phone calls and made brief comments to voluntecrs. Thone conversation with one
lody who said "she didn't want that stinking ReGovern to get: his foot in the door."
Very good media coverage: 3 TV stations, 1 radio station and 6 newspapers including
Dellas Morning News and Dallas Daily News.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - Sen. Fannin
Senator Tower's race emphasized along with Presidents. Well received. Press coverage
poor - Houston Post interviewed by phone.
SPOKANE, WASHINGTON - Sen. Murphy
Good speech. Nearly 200 volunteers at storefront. Two TV stations and two papers
gave coverage. No radio coverage.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - Rog Morton
Morton well received; gave good talk. 100 volunteers at storefront. ABC affiliate;2 papers.
People indicated it was "critical" that President come to Seattle.
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK - Sen. Keating
Light turnout of volunteers at storefront. Keating visited with crowd. Two TV stations
covered and one radio station; no press.
SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS - Ed Cox
Cox made a few phone calls;visited with crowd and made a few remarks. He spent 10
minutes with a 14 year old volunteer who had stayed at the headquarters last night
until 2:00 a.m. 125 volunteers at storefront. No TV coverage;l radio, AP and UPI,
Springfield paper did cover.
GREENSBORO, NORTH CAROLINA -- Sec. Hodgson
Visited 5 storefronts and made 10 calls from each. Visited with local Pres. of COPE
and Pres. of Local 3060; Comm. Workers of America, AFI-CIO and local candidates.
Volunteer turnout at storefronts average. Excellent coverage by media - 2 TV stations,
2 radio stations and all three papers.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - Cong. Shyder and Buzz Aldrin
Will received and had good advance media coverage. Surrogates made a few calls.
Volunteer turnout good with 3,000 calls made and 150 Election Day volunteers recruited.
Two TV stations covered and one of two papers; no radio coverage.
TOWSON, MARYLAND - Gov. Holton
Iblion did not make it *** plane grounded. County CREP Chairman Jervis Finney filled in.
Pointed out TO press that 86,000 calls had been completed in Baltimore County; that
1100 of 3200 volunteers me under 30, Lot of activity and enthusiass at storeficits.
No IV COMPRIGO due to a train vrech du Baltimore; terml interview of Minney by local
NTC radio surdion; two payant covered and a feature writer, state AP.
ILLUMS - MacGrager
not with volunteers, grow a belof telk and held press conference. Light
b. wont of vobmtocrs (33), 3 IV stations condit; no radio or press.
AMOUNT, pinnsylvania - Mrs. Prooks and IXI Nelson
this made phone calls to supporters. Peavy turneat of volunteers at storefront. Good
IV, radio and press coverage.
FLINT - LUGAR
Lugar was forced to cancel due to inclement weather. Press coverage was
also cancelled. There were 139 volunteers at the storefronts and phone
centers, making calls, addressing reminder post cards and other GOTV or-
ganizational activities.
ALBANY - SECRETARY RICHARDSON
Visited two storefronts, and spoke to 125 volunteers. Made reminder
calls (7). Press coverage was good.
DETROIT - TRICIA COX; GOVERNOR MILLIKEN
Both Tricia and the Governor mode brief remarks on GOTV and spoke with
individual volunteers. Visited three facilities where 1850 volunteers
were present. Media coverage - excellent.
HARRISBURG - MRS. BUTZ; MRS. DAVID; BARBARA FRANKLIN
Surrogates met and spoke with 135 volunteers. Due to inclement weather
crowds were light. 2 Newspapers covered the event - no radio or TV.
SCRANTON - CONGRESSMAN YOUNG
Young met with 120 young volunteers and talked with them about the import-
ance of GOTV. There was no Press coverage due to the coverage of a Pre-
Kick-Off dinner with Gordon MacRae on Friday night.
SOMERSET/MORRIS/UNION COUNTIES - SENATOR BEALL
"campaign results rest in your hands and in the hands of others like you
across the country. Beall spoke to volunteers on GOTV and made reminder
calls. About 100 volunteers met Beall at three facilities. Volunteers
were generally young. The Kick-Off was covered by 2 radio stations and
12 Newspapers.
AUSTIN - BLATCHFORD
Blatchford was well-received in Austin. Response ... positive. Mr. and Mrs.
Blatchford made reminder calls and talked to approximately 140 volunteers.
Media coverage was light and consisted of one TV station and 1 newspaper.
NEW HAVEN - GOVERNOR SARGENT
Sargent visited three storefronts, made reminder calls, and held a Press
Conference at which he discussed the importance of gotv. There were ap-
proximately 185 volunteers at these facilities. Two TV stations and 5
newspapers covered the event and Sargent appeared on a 1/2 hour Q&A
ndio program.
BOSTON - ROMNEY
"Nixon is the most qualified man to lead us into a generation of peace"
Romney spoke to 245 volunteers on GOTV, greeted volunteers and made reminder
phone calls. Three network TV stations, 1 radio station and the two
major papers in Boston covered the event.
MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL - JULIE NIXON EISENHOWER
Julie spoke on the importance of GOTV by citing the Sindlinger Poll. Over
1000 volunteers met with Julie and several reminder calls were made by the
Surrogate. There was a 70-piece marching band. Julie signed the band's
sheet music, and was presented with an anniversary card by a little old
lady who could hardly write, and a bouquet of roses from a small child.
Press coverage was excellent.
OKLAHOMA CITY - MAUREEN REAGAN
Was questioned about Peace Proposal. Surrogate spoke to 175 volunteers
regarding GOTV; made phone calls; worked on check-off lists. Interview
of a lady in a wheelchair - felt registration was so important that she
came out only a week after a serious operation. Press coverage was extremely
good (2 TV *** 3 Radio).
ALBUQUERQUE - SANCHEZ
Surrogate made phone calls in Spanish. Spoke to volunteers (about 500) -
had breakfast with Democrats for Nixon. Media coverage - excellent.
(3 TV stations, 5 radio stations (2 Spanish) and 4 newspapers)
ABERDEEN - PHIL CAMPBELL, CHRIS CONNELLY
Surrogates made reminder phone calls. Very well received. Approximately
60 volunteers. Press coverage was fair.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - Goldwater
Made remark that he did not want his 8 grandchildren to grow up knowing that their
grandfather was the worst defeated presidential candidate in history wanted to make
sure McGovern got the title after this election. Visited three headquarters and
personally greeted the volunteers and callers. Made three phone calls. Good volunteer
turnout. Very good coverage: all 3 TV stations, several radio stations and two dailys.
CHARLESTON, WEST VIRGINIA - Ruta Lee
Made 10 phone calls with all but one responding favorably. Pleased the crowd and
when she said she was looking for a husband, but that all the men were probably
married - one man raised his hand and she went into the crowd and gave him a kiss.
Good volunteer turnout. Fair coverage: 1 TV and 1 radio; no papers. Advance coverage
was good.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 31, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY RESTRICTED
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN D. EHRLICHMAN
FROM:
John C. Whitaker
l.
SUBJECT:
Post-Election Thoughts
We seem to be well underway in doing our preliminary thinking
on how to arrange substantive things neatly for the first two
months of next year. For example, with Congress back in Jan-
uary, we can delay sending down the budget so that things dribble
out as we would like them in an orderly manner such as the
following:
1. January 20: Inauguration Speech -- very broad.
2. State of the Union - a little more meat on the policy bones.
3. The Economic Message.
4. Details in the Budget Message.
5. In February, specific messages to the Congress.
All of the above is methodical, businesslike and, I'm afraid,
rather dull. The "New American Revolution" will run into another
stone wall, because Congress, whether controlled by the Republicans
or Democrats, won't want to give up the power that will be required
if we are to make Government Reorganization and Special Revenue
Sharing meaningful and effective. Therefore, our strategy should
be to try to bluff Congress into passing these, to them, unpalatable
initiatives. I think we have to gamble on keeping up the attack
on Congress as an institution, and do it while the iron is hot.
On election night, the President speaks to the Nation, frankly
recognizing the decline in public confidence in Government and the
even lower public opinion of the Congress. He calls upon the people
to remember the name of the Congressman they have just voted for,
and to write or call him right now while he is home and ask his
support for returning power to where it belongs the level of
government closest to the people. The Mayors, Governors and
- 2 --
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
State Legislature. The President explains again how Government
Reorganization and Special Revenue Sharing would accomplish
this goal by returning both priority-setting and responsibility to
the local level, and, if these two ideas become law, the Gordian
Knot of all-important decision-making being in far-off Washington
can be cut. (I recognize that at this point there is some question
if we will have Special Revenue Sharing. If we don't, the same
scenario will apply just to Government Reorganization.)
While addressing himself to this substantive problem, and his
plans and programs to solve it, he also speaks frankly of the
decline in public confidence of the Executive Branch, fusled by
the partisan rhetoric we have just been through. He says that,
now that he has received an overwhelming mandate from the
electorate on the vital and clear-cut issues of this election year,
it is important that the electorate perceive that the Government
is by, of and for them, and is not an antagonist. (The fallout
from the Watergate syndrome is to make people feel a vague sense
of unease about everything the Government does. Even the in-
nocuous seems sinister, and any assertion of wrongdoing or
chicanery is added to the litany of "proven" wrongdoing -- ITT,
milk prices, wheat deal, "sabotage," etc. -- until the charge
itself becomes the fact in popular perception.)
The President recognizes that public confidence is vital if he is
to translate his mandate into progressive action, and that the
electorate's belief that the Government is operating in their
interest is as important as (and in the near-term more important
than) substantive policy changes. He is therefore:
1. Directing his Cabinet Officers to go to the various
regions of the Country and listen. They have done a lot of talking
in this campaign, and now it is their turn to hear some talk.
The White House staif last year did just this, and the need is
important now to make it highly visible. We must get over the
idea that new ideas are only invented in Washington and inflicted
on the Country -- this is designed to be a Nation-wide "town
meeting. 11 (Each of the twelve Cabinet Officers would go to one
- 3 -
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
city, with White House staff support, and hold a televised listening-
post operation. This would be repeated once a week for four weeks
to cover the fifty largest cities in the Country.)
2. Perhaps in addition to the above, the President announces
that he is dispatching from the White House staff ten "personal
representatives" to work with each of the ten Federal Regional
Councils as a kind of ombudsman -- along the lines that Frank
Garlucci SO successfully pioneered in Pennsylvania. These people
would make themselves highly visible in the region, would be em-
powered to cut through Federal red tape, and would report back
to the President the major concerns in their regions.
3. Alternatively, set up one Federal ombudsman (The
Vice President, Rumsfeld, etc.) together with a toll-free number
and 24 hours a day staffing to receive the suggestions of the
citizenery. This one's pretty cute and our success with telephone
operations (e.g., heroin hot-line) is poor.
I recognize that each of the foregoing ideas is gimmicky and would
probably be viewed with cynicism among many of the commentators.
It is also highly unlikely to achieve any practical result. On the
other hand, the polls seem to show that smear and innuendo have
left their mark and, if credibility is as important an element of
effective Government as I think it is, that aura could sew some
unpleasant seeds over the next four years if not nipped in the bud
(you've got to get me out of the farm area, my metaphors are
getting too one-sided).
In summary, the President would be stealing a substantive
march on the Congress in the coming battle over the institutional
framework of the Federal Government, and also moving to undercut
the one liability -- decline in public confidence -- that it appears
will be the prodgeny of the McGovern attacks. I don't think he can
afford to be simply Olympian as the ending of the war focuses our
concerns closer to home and Teddy Kennedy turns on his TV lights
for the Watergate Show.
CC: Ken Cole
EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT
WHAT'S HAPPENING
WHO'S AHEAD
IN POLITICS TODAY
1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W. o Room 1312 o Washington, D.C. 20006 0 202-298-7850
Tentative Schedule
SECOND EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL FORUM
MADISON HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.
October 31, 1972
V 10:00 an
Rowland Evans and Robert Novak. The 1972 Compaign.
Discussion and Questions.
11:30 am
Hon. Clark MacGregor, Campaign Director of the Com-
mittee to Reelect the President. The Nixon Campaign.
Discussion and Questions.
12:30 pm
Luncheon.
1:30 pm
Mr. Richard Scammon, The Election Research Center and
Mr. Patrick Caddell, Cambridge Survey Research. The
1972 Voter. Discussion and Questions.
3:30 pm
Hon. Lawrence F. O'Brien, National Campaign Chairman of
McGovern-Shriver '72. The McGovern Campaign. Dis-
cussion and Questions.
4:30 pm
Evans and Novak. Summing Up.
5:00 pm
Reception.
SECOND EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL FORUM
Madison Hotel, Washington, D. C.
31 October 1972
Discussions and Questions - The 1972 Campaign (Evans)
Predict an electorial vote for Nixon of 524 to 14 for McGovern. Believe
the pre-convention actions of McGovern did him in. That is, the policies he
advocated in detail SO far in advance and later modified or drastically changed
his position. Six to eight weeks ago it was obvious that the McGovern campaign
had collapsed. Forty percent of those polled as having voted for Humphrey
stated they would not vote for McGovern.
Senator Hughes persuaded Muskie to oppose the candidacy of McGovern
on the night before Muskie was to declare in favor of him. Had Muskie supported
McGovern, he would have been named the Vice Presidential candidate and would
have helped McGovern avoid his many mistakes or at least some of them.
Some mistakes were his vascillation, the Eagleton affair, and that of the
O'Brien affair. He asked O'Brien to be chairman then found his staff had picked
Westwood so McGovern changed. Such action placed his capacity as a manager
in great doubt in the minds of leading democrats and the correspondents. At
that point the democratic political managers began to leave McGovern.
Another adverse factor in McGovern's campaign was his unfortunate choice
of issues to take to the people. Candidates should never go into a campaign with
such detailed specific issues. For example, John F. Kennedy had a few simple
objectives, such as a strong national defense, close the missile gap (there was none)
and get the country moving again. This avoids the problems of alienating various
groups early in the campaign.
McGovern, however, came out for:
(a)
$1,000 for each person.
(b)
A tax plan repellent to those with medium income or above
$12, 000 annually.
(c)
Mortgaged his future with programs to please splinter groups
and lost his appeal to others.
(d)
Reversed his position on Israel and the Middle East to get votes
but the Jews knew he did this only for votes.
-2-
(e)
He drove the Catholic vote to Nixon, or at least 50% of it, by
anti-war talk and by his long hair, kid associates. Ethnics
do not like Communists because they have had experience with
them.
(f)
McGovern really had only one issue-that of Viet Nam and he never
came to realize that the war issue was OVER. Nixon changed much of
the resistance to the var by doing away with the draft.
(g)
McGovern failed to concentrate 0.1 inflation and the higher prices of
food by not going into the stores and getting publicity on higher prices.
He started late on Watergate. Art Buchwa- had an interesting
comment on McGovern--"I worship the very quicksand he walks on".
Three SO called landslides by a past presidentist candidate were: Harding
63.9%, Roosevelt 62%, and Lyndon Johnson 61%. Nixco should win by placing
somewhere in the 60% area.
Regardless of a loss, the Democratic Party will be very much alive after
the election. It will include the democrats voting for Nizen and the rest of the
democrats. Believe Kennedy wants to run in 1976. The basic factions of the
McGovern democrats will change in the future.
Comments on Republican Chances (Novak)
The only state conceded to McGovern at this time would be Massachusetts;
also District of Columbia. The poll showed McGovern ahead by 4 % in Massachu-
setts which means McGovern will have trouble elsewhere.
Recent polls taken by Evans-Novak show Nixon's position as follows:
Wisconsin 9% ahead; Oregon 10% ahead; Rhode Island--way ahead but may be some
less; Hawaii-close; Washington 25% ahead; South Dakota 20% ahead; California
19-16 and 14% ahead on 3 polls; Michigan 18% ahead and trend is shead more;
New York a landslide; Texas ahead.
Senate now 55/45 but Republicans have a chance of winning Senate by a
close margin. Chafee win Rhode Island; Dominick (R) ahcad in run for Clinton
Anderson seat; North Carolina - Helms (R) moving ahead: Georgia close with
Thompson (R) Sam Nunn (D); Oklahoma Edmonson (D) 2% ahead of Bartlett (R)
but Oklahoma is 68% Nixon - 17% McGovern; Kentucky Huddleston (D) ahead of
Louis Nunn now; South Dakota Aberesk (D) anead of Hirsch (R); Delaware-Boggs
will probably win; Idaho-McClure (R) win; Michigan-Republican probably;
-3-
Texas-Tower probably safe over Sanders; Montana-Metcalf; Virginia-a
catastrophe for McGovern. Spong (D) - Scott (R) has a chance.
House About the best the Republicans can do is to win 20seats. But
there will be surprises should Nixon win by more than 60%. Believe the President
is wise to stay home during the campaign except for official business. Watergate
issue is not changing votes. Believe most people worry about jobs, inflation,
and busing.
If instead of McGovern, Humphrey, Muskie, Kennedy, Jackson or Wallace
had run the presidential race would be a dead heat at this point of the campaign.
The Republicans have not built a strong program but people believe Nixon is
best qualified for the White House. Even though many like the personality of
McGovern better they will vote for Nixon.
In this race, many people feel it is the "boardroom" attitude VS. the
"upper campus" attitude and they don't like either but for the President's job they
much prefer Nixon as a stronger man for acting on the problems.
Believe that a low percentage difference between the candidates leads to a
record low vote or turnout. The undecided vote is heavily undecided and most will
finally vote for McGovern.
Only seventeen governorships are up for election this year. Believe more
states should go to a mid-term basis. (Not elect a governor in a presidential
election year.) Probably three or four Republicans will win in these elections.
In 1976, do not believe Connally will run as a Republican or that Percy
has a chance. If in Illinois Ogilvie wins this year, he will be a candidate for
president in 1976. There could also be new young faces by that time.
The Nixon Campaign - Clark MacGregor
I came aboard on 1 July basically to show the people of the United States
what the President had done for them. Many do not realize these facts and the
President wanted a presentation of his positive programs. McGovern took care
of presenting any negative programs.
The Eagleton affair and McGovern's income plan have shown McGovern's
incompetence. My job is to show the people that Nixon has brought the people
peace and prosperity.
-4-
Questions:
Evans - Nixon has refused to campaign for Republican congressmen
who need help. Why has he not done more in this area?
MscGregor -- Congress was in session until 18 October at which time
the President was sent over 100 very comp inated bills to sign within a short
period of time. It was necessary to work On these in Washington where he could
confer with his cabinet inembers, his staff and others. There was little time
for campaigning. The best policy was a good performance in office not campaign-
ing.
If reelected, I don't think the President will embark on any new policies
but will take actions which will work. He will decentralize as much as possible
and pass action back to states, cities, etc. This was done for the "Revenue
Sharing" bill.
A low vote this year would help NeGovern and a high vote would help
Nixon. The "mud-slinging" by McGovern and Shriver leads to a lower voter
turnout.
Business must do more work to show what they have done and are doing
for the people. They have an unfavorable image with the public which they have
done little to change. The old business practices have changed--higher wages,
better conditions, better employee relations, etc.
The 1972 Voter - Pat Caddell
Unless the candidate has competence, the voters will not vote for him. In
July 1972, we interviewed 13, 000 voters. In September 1972, we again interviewed
sample voters from this original 13, 000. We found that the internal attitudes of
many of these voters had drastically changed against McGovern. One third had
changed their minds in this period. Those who moved to Nixon from McGovern
were 60% Democratic upper income, Catholic voters or combinations of those.
These voters had no real liking for Nixon but they had less confidence
in McGovern since the Eagleton affair. They liked McGovern's personality better
than that of Nixon and thought McGovern cared about them and was honest but
McGovern had lost his credibility.
-5-
In a question, "Does Nixon tell the truth?", the answer was 44% - No and
42% - Yes. They believed that McGovern did not know how to do things. They had
no better liking for Nixon but believed McGovern could not properly handle the
White House responsibilities.
Initially the poll was 46% - McGovern and 43% Nixon, now it was three to
one against McGovern and the young suburban group of voters defected. Many thought
Nixon was dishonest but now they thought McGovern was incompetent to be in the
White House.
On various questions to voters: When will the war end? - 12% said "never".
Does the hombing help? - 60% said "no". Is it immoral? - 46% said "yes" and 44%
said "no". Could the war have been ended sooner? - 40% said "yes".
On crime, many said neither party can help in this area. There was an
increasing belief in corruption in the government and not necessarily only by
Republicans. Those defecting from McGovern seemed to have no intention of
permanently defecting from the Democratic party.
If there is a Nixon landslide, do not misread the result. A strong candidate
could win over Nixon. Interest in the election is declining. Faith in the system is
declining. Many refer to ITT, grain deals, etc. and believe things are not getting
better. The basic turning point against McGovern was the Eagleton affair.
(Note - Pat Caddell gave many percentage changes between the July and
September polls. All showed the drastic loss of support for McGovern. He was
very frank in his comments and made a favorable impression that he was providing
the facts as he read them and was not trying to hide anything.)
Dick Scammon - My impression is that even though the voter may believe
everything is better, he still does not like it. Neither candidate is well liked.
Without Wallace, his voters shifted to Nixon but this is not a real Republican shift
of the voters. Voters like two parties in the government. In August, there was
a loss of confidence and a big defection of McGovern's basic support.
Racism is not too strong an issue now but 40% of the voters believe more
should be done for the blacks.
If there is a 617, turnout in this election, there should be a vote total of
85 million. Believe the Democrats will keep the Senate and House unless Nixon
-6-
gets 65% or more of the votes which will help move into Congress more Republicans.
McGovern polls show a belief that Nixon is not honest, but he gets a high rating on
his foreign affairs of around 70% of the voters.
A major problem is getting the voters to trust Nixon. Don't forget that
the average voter is more sophisticated than many people think. The process and
ideology by which McGovern won the nomination are the very things which will
lose him the election.
The McGovern Campaign - Larry O'Brien
When I returned to the Chairmanship I found that the public felt the system
did not meet their interests and goals. The party must respond by opening up to
meet these requirements. When this is done, a price is paid as was shown in the
convention at Miami.
Business must open up to enlist the support of the public.
At this time, McGovern is behind but not too far. People won't stand for the
status quo and the party must realign. Believe the Democrats are developing a
deep base of support and that the voting difference on Tuesday will not be large.
Questions:
Do you believe there is a lack of confidence in the government?
I believe the system must recognize the realities of today.
It seems there is a 2S% gap between McGovern and Nixon. Why?
The Eagleton affair had an adverse effect. After that there was an erosion
of confidence in McGovern. He had lost credibility. I agree that there is a wide-
spread cynicism among the voters.
The ethnic vote will be the key to the Democratic and Republican future.
This vote began to shift from the Democrats in 1950. When Mayor Curley was in
Boston, I remember he had complete control of this vote for the Democrats.
We have been losing it and I hope the Republicans are not smart enough
to make a major effort to obtain and keep this ethnic vote.
(Note - Larry O'Brien understandably talked in rather general and bureau-
cratic phrases much of the time. His loyalty to McGovern went over and above
the normal call of duty. He did say that his experience as Chairman of the Party
-7-
was such that it should happen only once in one man's lifetime. This was in
his more "off the record" comments. He made a good impression and was
well liked with sympathy for his position.)
(Personal note - I believe the original ethnic voter had little money, worked
hard and joined the Democratic Party. Now, he or his children have more money
and a good job. He does not approve of politicians and taxes which will take away
his hard earned money and distribute it to many who will not work as he did.)
Summary by Evans-Novak
Our last speakers have brought up a very interesting question as to
whether the Democrats will "break the other arm" in the next few years. Or will
the more conservative and experienced Democrats regain control of the party
but modify it to meet necessary changes of the times and regain their defectors.
Caddell seemed to say, "We did not lose the war--our chief made a blunder. 11
Mr. Dodd of the Democratic National Committee has been saying that the next
Chairman must be a woman or black. This comes from the quota system of the
convention. Are the Democrats just trying to change the whole face of the party?
Democrats are saying that the primary cause of a loss in the election will
be McGovern not the party itself. Jean Westwood will leave soon. State and other
leaders will become more conservative. I was surprised that O'Brien predicted
that McGovern would win and was now close to Nixon.
The personality and actions of McGovern caused his lack of a chance to
win. Muskie or Humphrey, with different personalities, would have been much
better. Without McGovern a resilient Democratic Party will come back. There
will be a Democratic house cleaning by competent Democrats under new manage-
ment with McGovern not a major factor in future policies. There must be an
analysis of the unworkable quota system.
At this time, Texas and California are overwhelmingly democratic but
are voting 50/50.
The question for the next Democratic nominee is whether he is going to
carry some McGovern baggage. If Kennedy runs, he will follow a more logical
Democratic line. He may use some of the ideological Democratic programs but
he will not make the mistake of giving them in detail so early in the campaign.
Committee
for the Re-election
of the President
FOR:
Mr. R. Halderman
Take necessary action
Approval or signature
Comment
Prepare reply
Discuss with me
For your information
X
See remarks below
FROM: Paul R. Jones
DATE: 11/2/72
REMARKS:
4 ATLANTA DAIL WORL D Thursday October 26. 1972
Atlanta Daily World
A Great Impact
A message almost as poignant as it is vital
was brought to Atlanta over the weekend by the
"Black Bht/" team seeking support of President
Nivon's re-election had on November 7th.
The four high-ranking team members aban-
doned the empty rhetoric usually associated with
political campaigning and left this simple but
profound message with local black residents:
Significant blac h support of President Nixon
in November would result in an administration for
the next four years sympathetic to the aspirations
of Black Americans.
If blacks, instead, throw their support to the
badly outdistanced democrat presidential candi-
date, their hopes could well be dashed to the
rocks" like those of the losing candidate.
Mincing no feelings in voicing this wise bit
of political realism was Tuskegee's Black Mayor
John Ford. a Democrat.
"Regardless of my personal convictions." he
told reporters at it press conference, "as a leader
of my people. I've got to take steps to assure the
best for them.
These steps, he explained further. would begin
with supporting the man who is expected to win by
a big margin next month and reward his faithful
supporters during the next four years.
Mayor Ford said he attended the Democrat
Convention in hopes of eventually supporting
a winner, chosen from among his party's leaders.
But after the convention, the man that black Demo-
crats had helped win the nomination "surrounded
himself with only whites."
Another member of the Blit/ Team. Alderman
Orville Pitts of Milwaukee. another Democrat for
Nixon said he decided to support the President
after comparing the records of the Republican
and Democrat parties in Wisconsin and nationally.
He and the other blitzers admitted however
that the Nixon Administration lags behind recent
Democrat administrations in one area - that
of "political rhetoric.'
All agreed, and so do we. that rhe oric or
"lip service' can do nothing for black people
who have only ties with a party which is out of
power.
Because of this, HC fervently hope that Paul
Jones, spokesman for the team, was correct
when he said:
"We feel that 1972 is the year that black
voters will reach the level of maturity (that would
prevent) a repeat of 1968 when 80 to 90 per cent
of the black vote went down the drain with a los-
ing candidate.'
We also wish there were more black political
leaders like Alderman Pitts and Mayor Ford -
ones who would be more interested in seeing that
their constituents got the most that our political
system offers, rather than considering their own
selfish political ambitions first.
Robert Brown, special assistant to the Pre-
sident, came into town Sunday mght from another
direction from which the Blitz Team came. He a-
long with the other visitors were heartily receiv-
ed at a reception in their honor at Paschal's Mo-
tor Hotel.
Monday morning Mr. Brown made a hig hit
when he spoke to the 11th and 12th grades at David
T. Howard High School. They applauded enthusias-
tically his remarks. urging them "to learn to give
to service and to seek the facts 111 a given situ-
ation." Dr. Floyd Sullivan, principal, presented
Miss Betty J. Barris, president of the student bods
who in turn presented the speaker and his assis-
tant Norris W. Sydnor of Washington and F.Jitor
C. A. Scott of your Daily World.
We believe the visit bs the Black Bhtz Team
will have a hig impact on the election by influenc-
ing more persons to vote for the President.
Knowledge enomious makes
II god of INC.
Senate burry Spendy vote
of antibinity hill.
John Keats.
BLACK GOP BLITZ TEAM HITS
McGOVERN ON RIGHTS RECORD
ALDERMAN CHALLENGES REP.
JULIAN BOND TO DEBATE;
ASK BIG VOTE FOR NIXON
By ROGER TURNER
Elated by the warmth and enthusiasm of its Atlanta
reception, a Blitz Team for the Election of the Pre-
Black G. 0. P.
sident ended a vigorous city wide camapign here Monday
and predicted that "President Nixon will be elected with
CONTINUE FROM PAGE )
a significant number of black votes.
Referring to a statement
Wheat Street Baptist Church
by Bond that blacks who
"A lot of people will be
best man President Nixon
and candidate for the State
support the Pre sident are
in for a surprise come Nov.
After sticking with this
legislature: Dr. C. Clayton
"political prostitutes.
7. especially the McGover-
theme during tours of eight
Powell, chairman of the
Pitts said: "One wouldhave
nites," said Paul Jones,
other cities Jones spoke in
black vote division of the
us to say that be has be-
executive director of the
glowing terms of what the
Georgia Committee to Re.
trayed us to say that he has
Black Citizens Committee
blitz team has experienced.
Elect President Nixon. and
betrayed us and should be
for the Re Election of the
"Blacks are saying 10
a member ofthe Republican
referred to as Judas Bond
President and leader of the
increasingly large numb-
executive committees in At-
He then turned his attack
Blitz Team.
lanta and the Fifth Congres-
ers that they will no long-
to McGovern. *When you
Jones, a member of the
sional District
er be taken for granted,
look at his record in even
Other members on the
Nixon party when the Pre-
that they are no longer in
the most Envorable light you
Blitz Team included: Com-
sident visited Atlanta two
the bag and never again
have to come to the conclus
mission member; Colston A.
weeks ago, stated emphati-
will allow themselves to
ion that he is a very medi-
Lewis, Equal Employment
cally that Democrat presi-
be the pawns for any one
DETE man from a very ob-
Opportunity (EEO) John
dential hopeful George Mc-
(pohtical) party
scure state, where very few
Wilks member of the Na-
Govern's record leaves
HITS DEMOCRATS
blacks live.' he said
tional Committee to Re-elect
blacks "with no clearer
Though campaigning en-
The spunky alderman then
the President: Ed Sexton,
choice than to vote for Ri-
ergetically, the blitzers for
issued his challenge to de.
issistant to the chairman
chard Nixon.'
the most part, emphasized a
bate Bond. "I will tell him
of the Republican National
Zeroing in on McGovern's
low-keyed reasoning by
in very articulate terms
Committee and Mrs. Bren-
civil rights record, Jones
logic approach.
and in explicit details why
da Petross, executive as-
said: "No less than eight
Ocassionally, however
I support Richard Nixon.'
sistant to the director of
times, Sen. McGovern was
some members such as Or-
At the same time, he said
the Black Vote Division of
absent when civil rights
ville Pitts, a Milwaukee,
he would demand Bond to
the Committee to Re-Elect
legislation was pending in
Wis alderman, leveled
explain why ne supports
the President
the Senate or he voted a.
strong attacks on the Demo-
McGovern.
Following the press con.
gainst it.
crat Party.
MAYOR SPEAKS
ference, the Bitzers Flew
Arriving in Atlanta Sun-
For instance at a press
Expressing his views
out of Atlanta, heading for
day night and remaining
conference he described
with less bombast but with
New Orleans and ultimately
until noon Monday, the four
it as a "roving band of dis-
equal force was Democrat
Washington, D. C.
member team embarked
sidents and guerrillas" and
Mayor John Ford of Tus-
Their 10-city blitz includ
upon a whirlwind program.
called McGovern "verbose
kegee, Ala.
ed tours of the following
It included breakfast meet-
peddler of disapproval He
While admitting that he
other cities Baltimore
ings at Frazier's Society
attended the 1972 Democrat
also called upon Georgia
Md.; Newark, N.J.: Pitts-
Cafe and Paschal's Motor
Rep. Julian Bond to debate
Convention and remains a
burgh, Pa.: Detroit, Mich.:
Hotel, and later meetings
him. Pitts accused Bond of
Democrat. Ford d "Re-
Chicago, III.: Memphis,
at Perry Homes Community
perpetrating "a broad and
gardins of my convictions.
Tenn.: and Cleveland. O.
and the Nixon-Cook Head-
pervasive betrayal on black
as a leader of my people
quarters on Hunter Street.
Americans' who support
I've got to take steps that
The Blitzers carried the
would help my people.
President Nixon.
am mayor of city that
same message to all the
CONTINUED ON PAGE 4
must deliver services to its
meetings: "Support the
people and it seems that
Nixon will be in the White
House for the next four
years.
The fourth member of the
team, Mrs. Elaine B. Jen-
kins, Washington educator
and Nixon appointee, said
blacks cannot affort to risk
an administration under Sen.
McGovern. but must continue
"with hat we know is good.
All xpressedconcidence
that blacks will be mature
enough on Nov. 7 to examine
the record of each man and
to vote on the basis of those
records rather than the
man rhetoric and reputati-
on.
Voicing similar feelings
at the news conference
were. Rev William H. Bor-
ders, pastor of Atlanta's
Black GOP Blitz Team in Atlanta
The Black GOP Blitz Team visited Atlanta recently seeking Black votes
dent of "One American, Inc."; Paul Jones, chairman of National Black Divi-
for the re-election of President Richard M. Nixon in the Atlanta and Georgia
sion for the re-election of the President; Alderman Orville Pitts of Milwau-
areas. Shown above are members of the team: (L-R) Ed Sexton, assistant
kee, Wis.; Colston A. Lewis, member of EEOC; Robert Brown, special assis-
to the chairman of the Republican National Committee; John Wilks, member
tant to the President; and Dr. C. Clayton Powell, head of the Black Repub-
of the National Committee to re-elect the President; Dr. William Holmes
licans of Georgia for the re-election of the President. (Photo by Arthur
Borders, pastor of Wheat Street Baptist Church; Mrs. Elaine Jenkins, presi-
F. Smith, Jr.)
TALKING PAPER FOR POLITICAL MEETING
GS
RE: Senator Harry Byrd and Campaign Advertising
Senator Harry Byrd
Harry Dent has received word from Harry Byrd's Administrative
Assistant that Byrd is waiting for someone high up to call
and ask him to endorse the President.
Clark, will you call Byrd?
he will
Campaign Advertising
Peter Dailey's November Group can purchase additional local
60-second spot TV but needs the money immediately.
Clark, can you get Stans to put up the 250,000 needed this
morning?
he will
GS
11/2/72
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
November 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CLARK MacGREGORCM
SUBJECT:
Efforts to Notify the Field About the
President's Address.
We have taken the following steps to notify our state organizations,
volunteers and the general public of the President's campaign tele-
cast on Thursday night.
(1) We have asked all Regional Directors to notify all state
chairmen and to ensure that a member of the state head-
quarters staff will inform every storefront and telephone
center in the state.
(2) We have sent night letters to all reported storefronts
and telephone centers.
(3) We have asked Listfax to call every reported storefront
and telephone center in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania
and California as well as all storefronts which Western
Union has been unable to contact in the past.
In all cases we are requesting that telephone centers add a tag line
reminder to all calls, that storefronts place signs in windows to
alert the general public, and that everyone talk up the program with
their volunteers.
As you know, the plans for the speech have received wide media cover-
age. To supplement this and encourage increased viewers, we have
placed tune in advertising in major market newspapers around the coun-
try and have promoted it each morning on the Nixon Network.
Please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions regarding
the above.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date:
11/2
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Dent does not recommend a
visit by the President or
any intervention in the
race. Instead, he just
wants you to be aware of the
Thurmond situation.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 2, 1972
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R.HALDEMAN
FROM:
HARRY S. DENT
HCD
The Thurmond re-election campaign is having problems.
His effort to win black votes is faltering since he
has run out of money and organized labor has sent in
plenty to turn out a massive bloc vote. Also, Wallace
has now endorsed his opponent with the aim of moving
against him with black and Wallace votes together in
payment for what he did to Wallace in 1968. Thurmond
has not been recognizing his peril but I am concerned
that this could be a much closer race than anyone
figured. The State Democrats, including the Governor's
office, have been working full time in lieu of efforts
for McGovern.
Bull
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Nov. 1, 1972
GORDON:
Larry asked that you have a copy
of the attached FYI.
Pat McKee
Attachment
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
High
Priority
WASHINGTON
October 30, 1972
5:30 p. m.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
DWIGHT L. CHAPIN
H. & R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
STEPHEN BULL
$30
RE:
Presidential Telephone Calls
Bill Timmons sent a recommendation that the President make telephone
calls to State Managers and key State Senate candidates during the week
of October 30 for the purpose of getting out the vote and endorsing selected
candidates. I was subsequently informed that the President will make
telephone calls,
The matter has been discussed with Chuck Colson and Bill Timmons and
the following plan is offered:
There are three priorities:
(a)
The principal 13 key States.
(b)
Non-key States with Senate races.
(c)
Non-key States with Gubernatorial races.
In key States where there is a Senate race, the President would place a call
to the Senate candidate where appropriate, e.g., he would call Griffin in
Michigan but would not call Case in New Jersey--the call would be placed
to the CREP Chairman. In cases where he calls a candidate, the call serves
a dual purpose: endorse the candidate and get out the vote. Where there is
no candidate it is just get out the vote.
In States where we are laying low on a Senate or Gubernatorial race, e.g.,
Blount in Alabama, the call goes to the CREP Chairman and is purely get
out the vote.
The individual being called, particularly in the first priority (key States)
would be advised in advance of the approximate time of the President's
telephone call and the individual would be encouraged to have Press coverage
of him receiving a call from the President. This would obviously serve to
achieve the objective of the endorsement and/or get out the vote message.
The Eastern States would be done before the Western.
Following is a breakdown of the States and specific individuals to be called:
- 2 -
Chmn
Time
Senate
Gubernatorial
CREP
State
Zone
Candidate
Candidate
Chairman
Other
Priority I
Conn.
EST
X
Md.
EST
X
New York
EST
X Gov.
Rockefeller
New Jersey
EST
Sen. Case
X
Pa.
EST
X
X Rizzs
Michigan
CST
X Sen. Griffin
Ohio
CST
X
Texas
CST
Sen. Tower
Grover
X
Wisconsin
CST
X
Minn.
CST
X Sen. Hansen
Missouri
CST
X Bond
Illinois
CST
X Sen. Percy
X Gov Ogilvie
Visit takes This care
(joint call)
of
Calif.
PST
Reagar
Also for Consideration:
Mass.
EST
X Sen. Brooke
O
W. Va.
EST
Leonard
X Gov. Moore
S. Dakota
MST
X Hirsch
X Thompson
(Joint call)
Wash.
PST
X Gov. Evans
Priority II
Del.
EST
X Sen. Boggs
X Gov. Peterson
(joint call)
Georgia
EST
X Thompson
Kentucky
EST
Nunn
X
N. H.
EST
X Powell
X Thomson
(joint call)
N Carolina
EST
X Helps
Holshouser
11
(joint call)
Rhode Island EST
X Chafee
( DeSimone
11
(joint call)
X denotes individual(s) to be called.
O = no chance
- 3 -
Time
Senate
Gubernatorial
CREP
State
Zone
Candidate
Candidate
Chairman
Other
Priority II (Continued)
S. Carolina
EST
X Sen. Thurmond
Virginia
EST
X Scott
Iowa
CST
Sen. Miller
Gov. Ray
X
Kansas
CST
X Sen. Pearson
Kay
Nebraska
CST
X Sen. Curtis
Okla noma
CST
X Bartlett
need visit
Tenn.
CST
X Sen. Baker
Maine
EST
X Sen. Smith
Colorado
MST
X Sen. Allott
Idaho
MST
X McClure
Montana
MST
X Hibbard
X Smith
(joint call)
N. Mexico
MST
X Demenici
"1
Wyoming
MST
X Sen. Hansen
Oregon
PST
X Sen. Hatfield
Alaska
+ 5
X Sen. Stevens
Priority III
Vermont
EST
X Hackett
O
Arkansas
CST
Blaylock
X
Indiana
CST
X Bowen
N. Dakota
CST
X Larsen
Utah
Strike
O
MST
X
X denotes individual(s) to be called.
o = no chance
- 4
There would be three brief texts prepared for the President's use, one
that contains the message of get out the vote, one for a call to a CREP
Chairman, and one for a call to a candidate.
Individual call sheets would be prepared that would contain the necessary
information about the thrust of the call and refer the President to the
appropriate talking points.
Them
very
but
The talking points would be prepared by Ray Pricy, the Senate candidate
calls by Timmons/Dent, and the CREP calls by MacGregor, with all of the
aforementioned ultimately cleared through Chuck Colson. For those to
receive a scheduled call, the individual to be contacted would be notified
by the individual who prepared the briefing paper. I will prepare the
schedule of calls.
Approve
Disapprove
cc:
C. Colson
W. Timmons
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: 10/31/72
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
MacGregor approves of these
Presidential telephone calls for
the last week of the campaign.
The suggestion is Timmons' with
Colson's concurrence.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
High
Pricetty
WASHINGTON
October 30, 1972
5:30 p.m.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H, R. HALDEMAN
VIA:
DWIGHT L. CHAPIN
FROM:
STEPHEN BULL
RE:
Presidential Telephone Calls
Bill Timmons sent a recommendation that the President make telephone
calls to State Managers and key State Senate candidates during the week
of October 30 for the purpose of getting out the vote and endorsing selected
candidates. I was subsequently informed that the President will make
telephone calls.
The matter has been discussed with Chuck Colson and Bill Timmons and
the following plan is offered:
There are three priorities:
(a)
The principal 13 key States.
(b)
Non-key States with Senate races,
(c)
Non-key States with Gubernatorial races.
In key States where there is a Senate race, the President would place a call
to the Senate candidate where appropriate, e.g., he would call Griffin in
Michigan but would not call Case in New Jersey--the call would be placed
to the CREP Chairman. In cases where he calls a candidate, the call serves
a dual purpose: endorse the candidate and get out the vote. Where there is
no candidate it is just get out the vote,
In States where we are laying low on a Senate or Gubernatorial race, e.g.,
Blount in Alabama, the call goes to the CREP Chairman and is purely get
out the vote.
The individual being called, particularly in the first priority (key States)
would be advised in advance of the approximate time of the President's
telephone call and the individual would be encouraged to have Press coverage
of him receiving a call from the President, This would obviously serve to
achieve the objective of the endorsement and/or get out the vote message.
The Dastern States would be done before the Western.
Following is a breakdown of the States and specific individuals to be called:
2 -
Time
Senate
Gubernatorial
CREP
State
Zone
Candidate
Candidate
Chairman
Other
Priority I
Conn.
EST
X
Md.
EST
X
New York
EST
X Gov.
Rockefeller
New Jersey
EST
Sen. Case
X
Pa.
EST
X
Michigan
CST
X Sen. Griffin
Ohio
CST
X
Texas
CST
Sen. Tower
Grover
X
Wisconsin
CST
X
Minn.
CST
X Sen. Hansen
Missouri
CST
X Bond
Illinois
CST
X Sen. Percy
X Gov. Ogilvie
(joint call)
Calif.
PST
X Gov.
Reagan
Also for Consideration:
Mass.
EST
X Sen. Brooke
EST
Leonard
O
W. Va.
X Gov. Moore
S. Dakota
MST
X Hirsch
X Thompson
(Joint call)
Wash.
PST
X Gov. Evans
Priority II
Del.
EST
X Sen. Boggs
X Gov. Peterson
(joint call)
Georgia
EST
X Thompson
Kentucky
EST
Nunn
X
N. H.
EST
X Powell
X Thomson
(joint call)
N. Carolina
EST
X Helms
X Holshouser
(joint call)
Rhode Island
EST
X Chafee
X DeSimone
(joint call)
X denotes individual(s) to be called.
O = no chance
- 3 -
Time
Senate
Gubernatorial
CREP
State
Zone
Candidate
Candidate
Chairman
Other
Priority II (Continued)
S. Carolina
EST
X Sen. Thurmond
Virginia
EST
X Scott
Iowa
CST
Sen. Miller
Gov. Ray
X
Kansas
CST
X Sen. Pearson
Kay
Nebraska
CST
X. Sen, Curtis
Oklahoma
CST
X Bartlett
Tenn.
CST
X Sen. Baker
Maine
EST
X Sen. Smith
Colorado
MST
X Sen. Allott
Idaho
MST
X McClure
Montana
MST
X Hibbard
X Smith
(joint call)
N. Mexico
MST
X Domenici
Wyoming
MST
X Sen. Hansen
Oregon
PST
X Sen. Hatfield
Alaska
+ 5
X Sen. Stevens
Priority III
Vermont
EST
X Hackett
O
Arkansas
CST
Blaylock
X
Indiana
CST
X Bowen
N. Dakota
CST
X Larsen
O
Utah
MST
Strike
X
X denotes individual(s) to be called.
O = no chance
- 4 -
There would be three brief texts prepared for the President's use, one
that contains the message of get out the vote, one for a call to a CREP
Chairman, and one for a call to a candidate.
Individual call sheets would be prepared that would contain the necessary
information about the thrust of the call and refer the President to the
appropriate talking points.
The talking points would be prepared by Ray Price, the Senate candidate
calls by Timmons/Dent, and the CREP calls by MacGregor, with all of the
aforementioned ultimately cleared through Chuck Colson. For those to
receive a scheduled call, the individual to be contacted would be notified
by the individual who prepared the briefing paper. I will prepare the
schedule of calls.
Approve
Disapprove
cc:
C. Colson
W. Timmons
-
ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST AS OF OCTOBER 25, 1972
NIXON
McGOVERN
( 9) Alabama
( 5) Nebraska
( 6) Arizona
( 4) New Hampshire
( 6) Arkansas
(13) North Carolina
(17) Florida
( 3) North Dakota
SAFE
(12) Georgia
( 8) Oklahoma
( 4) Idaho
( 8) South Carolina
(13) Indiana
(10) Tennessee
( 7) Kansas
( 4) Utah
( 9) Kentucky
( 3) Vermont
(10) Louisiana
(12) Virginia
( 7) Mississippi
(170)
( 7) Colorado
( 4) Montana
( 3) District of
( 8) Connecticut
( 3) Nevada
Columbia
( 3) Delaware
(4) New Mexico
FAIRLY
(26) Illinois
(25) Ohio
SAFE
( 8) Iowa
( 6) Oregon
( 4) Maine
(27) Pennsylvania
(10) Maryland
(26) Texas
(10) Minnesota
( 6) West Virginia
(12) Missouri
( 3) Wyoming
(192)
( 3)
( 3) Alaska
(17) New Jersey
(14) Massachusetts
CLOSE
(45) California
(41) New York
(4) Rhode Island
( 4) Hawaii
( 9) Washington
(140)
(4) South Dakota
(21) Michigan
(11) Wisconsin
( 33)
TOTALS
502
36
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
H
FU
October 26, 1972
10/31
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
11/1
FROM:
L. HIGBY
What's the possibility of getting Teeter to do an updated
election analysis? Also, whatever happened to the great
election analysis that Benham was going to do on a weekly
basis for us? We never seemed to have gotten this.
LH:kb
Teeter 10/27
ready 10/3/
10/31 Banhams in mail,
Teeter endolday
Hxu
10/28
October 26, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
GORDON STRACHAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
What's the possibility of getting Tester to do an updated
election analysis? Also, whatever happened to the great
election analysis that Benham was going to do on a weekly
basis for us? We never seemed to have gotten this.
LH:kb
H
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
FU
Date: 10/27/72 10/3/31 11/1
TO:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Attached is Benham's most recent
election projections. I hadn't
sent it to you because of Bob's
very negative reaction originally.
Teeter's will be ready Tuesday.
OK
hoth renolthe
both min ,
3
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION
Research Park Princeton, N.J.
Memorandum
10-13-72
Gordon:
Here's our latest
estimate
Tan
Thomas W. Benham
ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST AS OF OCTOBER 12, 1972
NIXON
MCGOVERN
( 9) Alabama
( 3) Nevada
( 6) Arizona
(4) New Hampshire
( 6) Arkansas
( 4) New Mexico
(7) Colorado
(13) North Carolina
(3) Delaware
( 3) North Dakota
(17) Florida
( 8) Oklahoma
SAFE
(12) Georgia
( 6) Oregon
( 4) Idaho
( 8) South Carolina
(7) Kansas
(10) Tennessee
(9) Kentucky
(26) Texas
(10) Louisiana
(4) Utah
(7) Mississippi
( 3) Vermont
(4) Montana
(12) Virginia
( 5) Nebraska
( 3) Wyoming
(213)
( 3) Alaska
( 4) Maine
( 3) District of
( 8) Connecticut
(10) Maryland
Columbia
FAIRLY
(26) Illinois
(17) New Jersey
SAFE
(13) Indiana
(25) Ohio
( 8) Iowa
(27) Pennsylvania
(141)
( 3)
(45) California
(12) Missouri
(14) Massachusetts
(4) Hawaii
(41) New York
(4) Rhode Island
CLOSE
(21) Michigan
( 9) Washington
(4) South Dakota
(10) Minnesota
( 6) West Virginia (148)
(11) Wisconsin
(33)
TOTALS
502
36
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey
October 12, 1972
1972 ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST
ESTIMATED
ELECTORAL
NIXON
VOTE
PERCENTAGE
TOTALS
STATES
66.1 and over
( 9) Alabama
( 7) Mississippi
(
6) Arizona
(5) Nebraska
(17) Florida
(13) North Carolina
(12) Georgia
( 8) Oklahoma
134
( 4) Idaho
( 8) South Carolina
(9) Kentucky
(10) Tennessee
(10) Louisiana
(4) Utah
(12) Virginia
61.1 - 66.0
( 6) Arkansas
( 4) New Mexico
(
7) Colorado
(3) North Dakota
(3) Delaware
(6) Oregon
79
( 7) Kansas
(26) Texas
( 4) Montana
(3) Vermont
( 3) Nevada
( 3) Wyoming
( 4) New Hampshire
56.1 - 61.0
( 3) Alaska
(4) Maine
( 8) Connecticut
(10) Maryland
141
(26) Illinois
(17) New Jersey
(13) Indiana
(25) Ohio
( 8) Iowa
(27) Pennsylvania
51.1 - 56.0
(45) California
(12) Missouri
148
(4) Hawaii
(41) New York
(21) Michigan
( 9). Washington
(10) Minnesota
( 6) West Virginia
Less than 51
( 3) District of Columbia
(14) Massachusetts
(4) Rhode Island
36
(4) South Dakota
(11) Wisconsin
= State has moved up since October 4 classification
= State has moved down since October 4 classification
Opinion Research Corporation
Princeton, New Jersey