Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Source Description
This file contains:
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris survey. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/11/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/4/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 11/30/1972
Harris Survey.4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris public opinion analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 11/9/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Public Opinion analysis. With a complete copy 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/26/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. With a complete copy. 8pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Harris Survey. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
Harris Survey with data. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/2/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/2/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/18/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/31/1972
Harris Survey. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/17/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/17/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Charles Colson. RE: Harris Data. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/24/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/27/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/10/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146110
label
WHSF: Contested, 42-9
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146110
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 42-9
description
This file contains:
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris survey. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/11/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/4/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 12/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 11/30/1972
Harris Survey.4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris public opinion analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 11/9/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Public Opinion analysis. With a complete copy 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/26/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. With a complete copy. 8pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/16/1972
Harris Survey. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 9/22/1972
Harris Survey with data. 10pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/2/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/2/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/18/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 9/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/31/1972
Harris Survey. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/17/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/14/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/17/1972
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Charles Colson. RE: Harris Data. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 7pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 8/7/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/24/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/27/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/10/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
26146110
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
40126aece518cabd
ocrText
Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
9
12/14/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris survey. 5pgs.
42
9
12/11/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
12/4/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
12/7/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
11/30/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
9/22/1972
Campaign
Report
Harris Survey.4
42
9
11/9/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris public opinion analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
10/22/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
9
10/26/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Public Opinion analysis. With a
complete copy 10pgs.
42
9
10/16/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. With a complete
copy. 8pgs.
42
9
10/16/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Page 1 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
9
9/22/1972
Campaign
Report
Harris Survey. 1pg.
42
9
Campaign
Report
Harris Survey with data. 10pgs.
42
9
10/2/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
10/3/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
10/2/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
10/3/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
9
9/18/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
9/14/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
9/7/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
8/31/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
Campaign
Report
Harris Survey. 7pgs.
42
9
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
8/17/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Page 2 of 3
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
9
8/14/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
9
8/17/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
9
8/7/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: Charles Colson.
RE: Harris Data. 6pgs.
42
9
8/7/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 7pgs.
42
9
7/24/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
9
7/27/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
9
7/10/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Page 3 of 3
For Release: Thursday AM, December 14th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Evidence from the latest Harris Survey casts serious doubt on
a popular theory that President Nixon won reelection by a massive margin
because (1) he was able to reassure white working families that he would
end school busing to achieve racial balance, (2) convince businessmen
and white collar workers of his intention to cut government spending and
not raise taxes, and (3) persuade white union members and Southerners
that he would not rock the boat by pressing for major gains for blacks
and other minorities.
The roots of this common assessment is that the 1972 president
election was a classic confrontation of a law-and-order,
"anti-permissiveness, " middle-of-the-road. stand-pat Richard Nixon, on
the one hand, against an extreme, left-wing, "radical" new politics
George McGovern, on the other.
If this were indeed the basis on which 75 million Americans ca
their ballots last November 7th, then a ringing mandate should have been
registered for a wholesale cut-back in such causes as racial equality,
help for the poor, and anti-pollution, as well as deep cuts in federal
spending.
Yet a survey of public attitudes in depth shows that no
such public expectations now exist, nor is there evidence that they
ever did exist.
(more)
Mr. Nixon might have made noises during the campaign as a
fiscal conservative, pledged himself to heavy cuts in federal spending
and to no tax increase in the next four years. Yet, by 47-40 percent,
the public does not think he will actually be able to "keep federal
spending in line," and, by a much bigger 64-23 percent, people do not
think he will actually be able "to avoid increasing federal taxes."
On the question of racial minorities and the poor, public
expectations are completely opposite from that which the stand-pat
interpretation of Mr. Nixon's election victory would have predicted.
On school busing for racial purposes, by a narrow 42-40 percent, the
public doubts Mr. Nixon can achieve his stated goal of preventing it
from happening. By the same token, by a clear 52-32 percent, a majority
does think he will "help minorities achieve equality," and an even
higher majority of 58-32 percent believe that he "will expand help for
the poor. #
Far and away the most decisive expectation of Mr. Nixon on the
domestic front in his second term is the 63-26 percent who feel that he
will "make real progress in controlling air and water pollution,' a
matter notable in 1972 because it received a wide mandate almost without
exception in state bond issues for cleaning up the environment. An even
larger 83 percent said during the campaign that they would favor making
air and water pollution one of the "two or three top priorities for the
federal government in the next four years." Ironically, neither
President Nixon nor Sen. McGovern focused on pollution as a major
issue in the campaign.
(more)
Nor is the evidence buttressing this finding limited to
Harris Survey polling results. The election returns themselves contain
the same dramatic evidence. In 15 states last November 7th, Republican
candidates for the U.S. Senate could be classified as being more
conservative on nearly all issues than the President himself. In
these states, Mr. Nixon received 68 percent of the vote, while GOP
candidates for the U.S. Senate won no more than 52 percent of the vote.
Republican conservatives ran 16 points behind the President.
By contrast, in 6 states, the Republicans nominated candidates
who by no stretch of the imagination could be classified other than
moderates or liberals. Most significantly of all, each of the six had
pro-civil rights records (Percy, Ill; Smith, Me.; Brooke, Mass.; Case, N
Hatfield, Ore.; Chaffee, R.I.). In these six states, Mr. Nixon's
combined vote came to 57 percent, but the aggregate vote for the U.S.
Senate was 61 percent Republican. In other words, Republican moderates
and liberals ran 4 points ahead of Mr. Nixon, while GOP conservatives
ran 16 points behind him. This massive 20 point difference between how
conservatives and liberals within the Republican party fared certainly
ought to be taken as handwriting on the wall politically.
(more)
Thus, the post-election evidence is simply not there that Mr.
Nixon's mandate. mirrors a deep and abiding desire on the part of voters
to rally to the roster of so-called Middle America "social issues,"
centering on crime, permissiveness, and resistance to change.
Significantly, the voters themselves, by a 47-38 percent margin, rejecte
the image of the President as one who stood essentially for the status
quo in his approach to government. And Mr. Nixon, himself, in a
post-election statement has said he did not view his re-election as
"simply an approval of things as they are" nor "an endorsement of the
status quo," but rather he considered the election returns a demonstrati
of a nationwide desire for "change that works."
Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune
Note to Editors: We are enclosing the following work sheet for the Harris
Public Opinion Analysis of Dec. 14, 1972 which may be of
interest to you.
NIXON VS. MORE CONSERVATIVE G.O.P. CANDIDATES FOR U.S. SENATE
(Vote in 000's)
Pres.
U.S. Senate
Nixon
McGovern
Rep.
Dem.
15 States
%
82
%
&
Ala. (Blount-Sparkman )
692 (76)
216 (23)
337 (33)
660 (64)
Colo, (Allott-Haskell )
569 (63)
319 (36)
440 (49
449 (50
Dela. (Boggs-Biden
140 (60)
92 (39)
113 (49)
116 (50)
Ga. (Thompson-Nunn
779 (75)
261 (25)
481 (46)
571 (54
Iowa (Miller-Clark)
702 (58)
493 (41)
524 (44
649 (55)
Kans. (Pearson-Tetzlaff)
606 (68)
265 (30)
601 (72)
195 (23
Ky. (Nunn-Huddleston)
671 (64
369 (35)
491 (48)
526 (51
Mont. (Hibbard-Metcalf)
178 (58)
116 (38)
146 (50)
148 (50
Nebr. (Curtis-Carpenter)
383 (71)
162 (29)
283 (53)
256 47
N.H. (Powell-McIntyre)
212 (65
115
(34)
139
(43)
183
(57
N.C. (Helms-Galifianakis)
1,052 70
437 (29)
793 (54
672 46
Okla. (Bartlett-Edmondson)
746 (74)
243 (24)
506 (51
471 48
S.C. (Thurmond-Zeigler)
464 (71
187 28
418 (64
239 (36)
Texas (Tower-Sanders)
2,078 67
1,055 33
1,670 54
1,389 45
Wyoming (Hansen-Vinich)
100 (70
44 (30
101 (71
41 (29)
9,372 (68)
4,374 (32)
7,043 (52)
6,565 (48)
G.O.P. Senate Conservatives: 16 points behind Nixon
NIXON VS. MORE MODERATE OR LIBERAL G.O.P. CANDIDATES FOR U.S. SENAT
(Vote in 000's)
Pres.
U.S. Senate
Nixon
McGovern
Rep.
Dem.
6 States
90
%
%
%
Ill. (Percy-Pucinski)
2,748 (60)
1,864 (40)
2,826 (63)
1,679 (37)
Me. (Smith-Hathaway)
251 (61)
161 (39
196 (47)
223 (53
Mass. (Brooke-Droney)
1,104 (45)
1,324
(55)
1,496 (65)
820 (35
N.J. (Case-Krebs)
1,766 (63)
1,055 (37
1,643 (63)
935 (36)
Ore. (Hatfield-Norse)
483 (53)
391 (42)
491 (54)
424 (46)
R.I. (Chaffee-Pell)
209 (54
185 (46)
180 (46)
212 (54)
6,561 (57)
4,980 (43)
6,832 (61)
4,293 (39)
G.O.P. Mod. or liberals: 4 points ahead of Nixon
G.O.P. Conservatives ran relative to Nixon 20 points poorer than moderates
liberals.
For Release: Monday AM, December 11th, 1972
Not Befor
By Louis Harris
Sizable majorities of the American people expect that a second
Nixon Administration will yield real progress in relations with Russia
and China abroad while making gains in controlling air and water polluti
here at home.
At the same time, the public is doubtful that Mr. Nixon will
be able to keep his campaign pledges of cutting federal spending and
avoid raising taxes. People are similarly skeptical that the President
will succeed in controlling inflation and in reducing unemployment, or
that he will be able to prevent school busing to achieve racial balance.
On two key Nixon objectives, the public is divided: by a
narrow 43-41 percent, a small plurality feels the President "will be abl
to unify the country"; but by 47-37 percent, a plurality also doubts tha
he will be "able to establish a generation of peace. 11
On November 21st and 22nd, a nationwide cross section of 1,504
households was asked:
"In his second term in the White House, do you think President Nixon
will (READ ITEMS ON LIST) or don't you think he will do that?"
(more)
PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS FROM SECOND NIXON ADMINISTRATION
Will
Not
Will
Not
Sure
%
%
%
Expand trade with Russia and China far beyond
what it has ever been before
82
9
9
Come to further major agreements with the
Russians on arms control limitations
76
13
11
Make real progress in controlling air and
water pollution
63
26
11
Expand help for the poor
58
32
10
Help minorities achieve equality
52
32
16
Get along well with the Democratic controlled
Congress
45
41
14
Put in major tax reforms
43
37
20
Unify the country
43
41
16
Prevent school busing for racial balance
40
42
18
Keep federal spending in line
40
47
13
Reduce unemployment
39
48
13
Establish a generation of peace
37
47
16
Control inflation
36
51
13
Avoid increasing federal taxes
23
64
13
Taken as a whole, it is apparent that the public has more
confidence that progress can be made in foreign than domestic policy
by a second Nixon Administration. This, of course, reflects and reinfor
a major finding of Harris Surveys during the recent election, where the
sizable Nixon margin of victory could be traced dominantly to the
impression he had made in his journeys to Peking and Moscow.
However, there are some surprising areas of optimism on the
domestic front: Although he has had a vigorous agency dealing with
environmental pollution, nonetheless in the latter stages of the campaig
Mr. Nixon vetoed a massive water pollution control bill, which was then
promptly passed over his veto by both houses of Congress. Subsequently,
he has refused to allocate all of the funds appropriated on Capitol
Hill. Nevertheless, by 63-26 percent, the public expects to see real
progress on air and water pollution in the next four years.
(more)
Perhaps the most interesting finding is on the racial issue.
Here, a majority of 52-32 percent feels that Mr. Nixon in his second ter
will "help minorities achieve equality," and, by 42-40 percent, the publ
doubts he can "prevent school busing for racial balance. II Ironically,
it is the South which leads the rest of the country in these twin
expectations regarding racial developments, with a 57-23 percent majorit
in that region expecting help from Washington for minorities and a
47-34 percent plurality doubtful that school busing will be checked.
These results ought to put to rest the rather popular and
specious notion that Richard Nixon won re-election because he was able
to convince voters he would put an end to federal efforts in behalf of
desegregation.
It 10 now obvious he won the South heavily in spite of serious
white misgivings about future gains for blacks under Mr. Nixon. The
results among blacks are equally interesting. For they feel, by 56-27
percent, that the President will "not be able to prevent busing" and by
45-38
percent, that he "will not help minorities achieve equality. "
In a sense, Mr. Nixon starts out with the worst of both worlds on the
racial issue.
In the economic area, the doubts about what the President can
do to ease the twin problems of inflation and unemployment reflect the
continuing worries the American people have that the worst of our
economic troubles have not been solved by the price and wage control
program. To the contrary, these negative expectations should be taken
as a sign that any early attempts to ease the controls system will likel
be met by sizable public hostility.
(more)
By narrow margins, the public does expect Mr. Nixon to get
along well with the Democratic Congress and put through major tax
reforms. In many ways, these results provide a real clue to the public'
assessment of what it expects from the second Nixon term: rather than
believing the President will embark on a series of programs designed to
reinforce public fears about crime, protesters, drugs, and nonconformity
most people think he will seek out common ground with a more liberal
Democratic Congress.
That is why people suspect Mr. Nixon again will surprise the
prevailing wisdom among Washington pundits and analysts and may opt for
racial progress, helping the poor, reforming the tax system, and pushing
air and water pollution control measures at home. Abroad, they think
he will extend the landmarks achieved in his first Administration.
The first test of whether the public's expectations are correc
will be when the President begins to unfold his plans in his Inaugural
and State of the Union addresses in January.
Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune
MARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, December 4th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The heart of the proposed Vietnam peace agreement, calling for
a "cease-fire under which each side controls those parts of Vietnam they
now occupy, I! meets with 56-29 percent approval from the American people.
However, by 50-33 percent, the public disapproves "allowing a certain
number of North Vietnamese troops to remain in South Vietnam in those
areas controlled by the Communists. "
Sizable majorities of the people give unqualified approval of
the terms which have been outlined, with the only sticking point surroundi
the continuance of Communist rule in those parts of South Vietnam now
under Communist control. However, by 47-38 percent, a plurality is
willing to 80 along with the provision that Communist-held areas should
remain that way "until there are national elections. 11
Here is public reaction to the main provisions of the agreement
to end the war which have been reported:
By 91-5 percent, people approve "the exchange of all
prisoners of war when all U.S. troops are withdrawn within 60 days. :
By 80-7 percent, a big majority approve "the holding of
national elections in all of South Victnam within three months. 11
By 80-8 percent, a similar majority favor "international
supervision of the cease-fire and elections in South Vietnam. "
(MORE)
By 80-11 percent, a majority support the provision of "an
end of U.S. bombing and mining of North Vietnam and withdrawal of all
remaining U.S. troops and advisors within 60 days of the final agreement,
By 70-12 percent, the public also approves setting up "a
National Council of Reconciliation in South Vietnam which has on it equal
representation of the Thicu government, the Communists, and neutralist
elements to work out arrangements for an election.
11
During the course of Dr. Henry Kissinger's renewed negotiation:
with North Vietnam in Paris on November 21st and 22nd, a cross section of
1, 504 households across the country was asked a question identical to the
asked on the eve of the election on November 5th:
"The United States and North Vietnam have agreed on a way to end the
Vietnam war. From what you have read or heard of that agreement, do
you feel that the peace terms agreed to are right and honorable for the
U.S. to accept, or do you feel we are compromising too much to get peace?
VIETNAM TERMS RIGHT AND HONORABLE?
Late
Early
Nov.
Nov.
To
P
Right and honorable
48
41
Compromising too much
26
30
Not sure
26
29
All in all, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, those Americans with
firmed-up opinions support the reported, agreed-to peace terms. Obviousl
the most popular parts of the proposed pact are the exchange of the
prisoners-of-war, the guarantee of early elections under international
supervision, an end of U.S. bombing and mining of North Vietnam, and
withdrawal of all American troops and advisors within 60 days of the
agreement.
(MORE)
The National Council of Reconciliation, a coalition in nature by
mediator in function, has not caused widespread opposition, although
consistently American public opinion had opposed a coalition government
25 a solution to the war. Undoubtedly, one of the reasons for the 70 per
support for the coalition National Council of Reconciliation is that it
specifically is not to be given governing functions in the interim period
before elections are held.
In many ways, the acid test for the agreement centers on the
provision that the Communists should continue to rule those parts of
Vietnam they now control. The cross section was asked:
"Do you tend to approve or disapprove of a continuation of rule by the
Communists in those areas they control until there are national elections'
COMMUNIST RULE OF AREAS THEY CONTROL UNTIL ELECTIONS
Dis-
Not
Approve
approve
Sure
BR
8
op
Nationwide
47
38
15
By Region
East
53
33
14
Midwest
50
38
12
South
35
44
21
West
51
37
12
By Age
18-29
49
39
12
30-49
54
33
13
50 and over
39
43
18
By - Education
8th grade or less
36
39
25
High school
44
41
15
College
58
33
9
By Occupation
Professional
61
28
11
Executive, manager
49
37
14
White collar
52
33
15
Skilled labor
42
46
12
Unskilled labor
41
40
19
(MORE)
*HARRIS SURVEY, December 4th, 1972
This division is a classic one, with the younger, better
educated, professional and white collar groups, centered on the East
and West coasts finally carrying the issue by a 47-38 percent margin.
Perhaps ironically, in the end, those groups which were most marked by
opposition to the war finally have given approval to the terms being
negotiated by President Nixon's representatives.
Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune
For Release: Thursday All, December 7th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
A solid majority of 65 percent of the American people reject the
suggestion that the reported terms of the peace agreement in Vietnam are
a victory for either the Communists or the United States, but feel rather
that they are a "fair compromise" way to settle the war. This does not
mean, however, that most Americans do not see real problems stemming from
the ending of the war.
Despite the fact that heavy majorities of the public support
the specific provisions of the proposed agreement, a substantial 72 percen
feel the Communists are likely to "violate the agreement" in a major or
minor way, and an even 50 percent also feel that the Saigon government
will also likely violate the pact.
When asked who will probably control South Vietnam five years fro
now, 33 percent of the public felt the Communists would take over, an
equal 33 percent hold the view that a coalition government with the
Communists in it will be in control, while only 9 percent believe the
present government will run the country, and no more than 7 percent see a
neutralist group in power in Vietnam.
Thus, it can be said that most Americans do not foresee an easy
nor entirely peaceful road ahead for the people of South Vietnam.
Basically, the people of this country view the Vietnam conflict as a
violent and unhappy episode with no victor. The final terms of settlement
are thought to be essentially honorable, but no better than a "fair
compromise.
1:
(MORE)
When asked for their views about the controversial bombing
of North Victnam ordered by President Nixon earlier this year, a
majority of 58-25 percent registered their conviction that the bombings
have "helped both sides to finally arrive at a peace agreement. " In other
words, the public is convinced that the violent and prolonged conflict
was brought to a halt through American force, with no real guarantees
that further outbreaks of fighting will not occur in the future or that
South Vietnam will be kept out of Communist control.
Nonetheless, a substantial majority of Americans favor the
terms of the agreement as outlined in October, partly because they will
signal the end of direct U.S. involvement in the war, partly because our
prisoners-of-war will be returned, and partly because in assuring the
South Vietnamese of elections they will at least have a fair voice in
determining their own future.
On November 21st and 22nd, a cross section of 1,504 people
18 years of age and over were asked face to face in their own homes:
"All in all, do you feel the reported terms of the agreement between the
U.S. and North Vietnam are a victory for North Vietnam, for the U.S., or
are a fair compromise?"
TERMS OF AGREEMENT
Total
Public
PP
Victory for North Vietnam
13
Victory for U.S.
.5
A fair compromise
65
Not sure
17
A substantial majority thought both sides gave some to achieve
the final settlement. But almost as large a majority also holds the view
that the bombings of North Vietnam helped bring about the final agreement
They were asked:
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, December 7th, 1972
3
"Do you feel the bombing of North Vietnam by the U.S. helped or hindered
both sides finally arriving at a peace settlement?"
ROLE OF BOMBINGS IN ENDING WAR
Total
Public
is
Helped arrive at agreement
58
Hindered agreement
25
Not sure
17
As for the settlement itself, the public foresees troubles
in keeping both sides from violating the agreement. People were asked:
"Do you think the Communists will abide by the Vietnam peace agreement
or do you think they will violate it in a major way or in a minor way?"
and "Do you think the Saigon government will abide by the Vietnam peace
agreement or do you think they will violate it in a major way or in a
minor way? 11
ABIDE BY OR VIOLATE AGREEMENT?
Communists
Saigon
08
%
Will abide by terms
13
30
Will violate in minor way
33
14
Will violate in major way
39
36
Not sure
15
20
Although the public thinks the Communists are more apt to
violate the agreement than the Saigon government, substantial numbers
feel both will not live up to the terms.
Nor are most Americans sanguine about an ultimate government in
Vietnam which will be free from either Communist domination or at least
participation. The cross section was asked:
(MORE)
HARRES PULLIC OPINION ANAINSIS, December 7th, 1972
"Five years from now, if you had to guess, who do you think will be in
control of South Vietnam: the Communists, the present Thieu government,
a neutralist government, or some form of coalition government with the
Communists in 16?"
WHO WILL CONTROL SOUTH VIETNAH FIVE YEARS FROM NOW?
Total
Public
To
Communists
33
Coalition with communists
33
Present Thieu government
9
Neutralists
7
Not sure
18
Of course, this is merely the guess of most Americans today as
the war finally is ending for this country. Despite these worries, it is
significant that 65 percent still feel the reported terms of settlement
represent a "fair compromise. 11
Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, November 30th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
One abiding condition that remains unsolved as 1972 draws to a
close is the fact that over four in ten Americans, 41 percent, still feel
largely allenated toward the system under which they live. While down from
a record 48 percent who felt disenchanted in early September, current levels
of allenation are still a full 10 points above the levels of 1966.
Here are key signs that the mood of alienation is still running
deeply in the country:
A substantial 64 percent of the public still agrees with the
statement that "tax laws are written to help the rich and not the average
man
11 This most widely held complaint declined from a high of 74 percent
last May.
The old shibboleth that "the rich get richer and the poor get
poorer" finds 61 percent in agreement, although the number tapered off some
7 points from a high of 68 percent in May.
Despite all the courting of voters that went on during the
recent political campaign, 46 percent of the people still feel that "what
I think doesn't really count much, # down from 53 percent who felt the same
way in May, but still coming to nearly one in every two Americans,
Over one in three, 36 percent, feel that "people with power
are out to take advantage of me, 11 down from a high of 43 percent in early
September,
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, November 30th, 1972
- 2
The number who say they feel "left out of things around me"
comes to 18 percent, down a full 7 points from the 25 percent who felt the
same way last May, but still double the 9 percent who expressed similar
feelings back In 1966.
The sharpest decline was registered among those who feel
"people running the country don't care what happens to people like me 11
This sentiment reached an all-time high of 50 percent last May, but by
early November had fallen off 11 points to 39 percent. So at least some
of the protestations of candidates that they really care about the voters
had some impact.
One of the significant aspects of the 1972 election is that
Harris Survey estimates show that voter turnout among the alienated
segment of the electorate was some 12 percentage points lower than those
who folt more adjusted to the system. An estimated 61 percent of the non-
alienated voted, compared with no more than 49 percent of the alienated.
Certainly one of the motivators keeping people away from the polls was a
sense that no matter which candidate won, the sources of their allenation
would not be relieved,
President Nixon carried the alienated who did vote by a narrow
51-49 percent margin against Sen. NoGovern. HcGovern had based much of
his early strategy on attracting people who were disenchanded. His
failure to come across as a champion of those who felt most keenly that
the system was passing them by figured largely in the final outcome.
Periodically, the Harris Survey has asked this series of
questions, the latest among 3,236 households carlier this month:
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, November 30th, 1972
- 3 -
"Do you often tend to feel (READ LIST) or not? II
SENSE OF ALIENATION
1972
1966
Nov.
Sept.
May
&
%
$
Tax laws written to help rich not
average man
64
67
74
X
Rich get richer, poor get poorer
61
66
68
48
What I think doesn't count much
46
50
53
39
People running country don't care
what happens to people like me
39
45
50
28
People with power out to take ad-
vantage of me
36
43
38
X
Feel left out of things around me
18
24
25
9
X-Not asked in 1966
When alienation is analyzed by key groups in the population,
these types of people tend to feel most alienated:
Young people under 30, a majority of whom feel that control
of society is firmly in the hands of their elders, share a sense of
not having their views taken very seriously.
People with incomes under $5,000 a year, a majority of whom
are over 55 years of age, share the sentiments of youth that
the powers that be largely ignore what they think. But, in addition, tend
to feel that the economic system discriminates against them. A substantial
29 percent feel "left out of things around me" and 54 percent report
feeling "lonely and depressed, If
Blacks, 69 percent of whom now feel allenated, are more
disenchanted than any other group in the population. A majority of 55
percent of the blacks feel that "people with power are out to take
advantage of me" and an even higher 62 percent say "poople running the
country don't care what happens to people like me, 11
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION AHALYSIS, November 30th, 1972
4 -
Union members, who feel particularly agrieved over taxes
and their economic lot, registered a 46 percent alienation level.
Paralleling this feeling are those of Irish descent, 72 percent of whom
feel "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" and 73 percent of whom
feel "tax laws are written for the rich and not for the average man." In
the industrial areas of the North, Richard Nixon was able to win the votes
of these two groups, despite their high sense of alienation. Both had
responded. to the appeals to the disenchanted from George Wallace earlier
in the year.
The element of alienation remains a major ingredient in American
life in the 1970's, and it would be a mistake to assume it will simply
disappear now that the 1972 elections are behind us,
Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune
HARRIS SURVEY
September 22, 1972
8/2 8/3
8/28 - 9/1
9/19 9/21
N
McG
N
McG
NS
N
McG
NS
Nationwide
57
34
63
29
8
59
31
10
East
58
33
60
34
6
56
34
10
Midwest
53
36
64
29
7
53
34
13
South
65
27
70
19
11
70
22
8
West
55
39
58
34
8
59
32
9
Deep South
68
26
68
20
12
71
19
10
Border States
62
29
69
22
9
66
26
8
Cities
50
42
53
39
8
43
44
13
Suburbs
57
33
68
25
7
64
26
10
Towns
62
31
67
24
9
66
26
8
Rural
62
28
68
24
8
68
22
10
18-24 year olds
47
47
6
44
50
6
25-49 year olds
59
34
7
50
41
9
18-29 year olds53
43
52
42
6
47
45
8
30-49 year old58
34
68
25
7
63
29
8
50+
59
28
65
26
9
61
25
14
8th Grade
52
36
56
36
8
52
34
14
High School
58
31
66
26
8
60
29
11
College
58
37
63
31
6
59
33
8
Union
49
40
56.
34
10
55
34
11
Men
58
33
63
29
8
58
32
10
Women
56
35
63
29
8
59
30
11
White
62
29
67
25
8
64
26
10
Black
16
77
22
67
11
13
75
12
Under $5,000
52
39
56
36
8
53
37
10
$5, 000 $9, 900 55
35
58
32
10
54
33
13
$10, 000-$14, 900 58
31
70
23
7
64
27
9
$15,000+
65
30
71
24
5
66
27
7
Republicans
87
10
93
5
2
89
7
4
Democrats
38
53
43
47
10
41
48
11
Independents
60
25
68
22
10
66
26
12
White Catholics 55
33
62
27
11
58
31
11
WASP
68
24
74
20
6
71
20
9
Jewish
46
44
49
43
8
37
39
24
Irish
59
31
10
54
33
13
Italian
65
25
10
52
31
17
N Nixon
McG McGovern
NS Not Sure
AUGUST 29-31, 1972
974
INTERVIEWS
SEPT 29 - OCT 1, 1972
980
INTERVIEWS
NIXON-MC GOVERN TRIAL HEAT
NIXON
LEAN NIXON
*
MCGOVERN
PERCENTAGE
9/24-1011
LEAN MCGOVERN
UNDECIDED
BASE
UNWTD
WTD
3.
4.
5.
50
7
23
26
5
3
9
14
TOTAL PUBLIC
974
980
1065
1049
59
100
MEN
484
459
504
59
57
4
521
10
}
45
Nm
7
13
21
12
16
100
WOMEN
490
561
523
59
44
100
511
9
1
9
18-20 YEARS OF AGE
52
45
85
80
59
46
21-29 YEARS
218
195
49
209
193
30-49 YEARS
402
382
375
370
60
0.000.00
mmrium
W-WNN
MAINA
NWWNW
7
7
100
54
10
17
100
54
12
15
100
50 YEARS AND OVER
293
388
401
59
49
346
45
9
33
4
2
10
100
18-24 YEARS
154
165
147
56
100
121
20
19
BTH GRADE CR LESS
91
246
45
4
227
BIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE
114
120
185
188
57
NNNN
NNWN
I
Name
87
12
100
MINNO 4 4 3 4 amms 4 more 3 6 one 4 6m
16
100
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
116
338
379
346
393
65
23
3
6
7
100
SOME COLLEGE
415
244
393
229
64
100
47
22
25
:
4N
13
UNION FAMILIES
269
315
269
322
52
8
100
NONUNION FAMILIES
705
750
711
727
62
52
100
WHITE
905
64
55
7
18
841
56
nn
-W
9
13
849
936
15
21
100
NONWHITE
126
125
19
118
130
18
100
56
17
19
8
579
65
CATHOLIC
219
267
on
NWW
14
PROTESTANT
643
601
251
mmo
14
1
100
562
239
44
9
21
100
JEWISH
31
30
37
33
100
38
30
11
40
10
8
UNDER $5,000 INCOME
208
555
60
must
13
130
48
33
193
10
100
$5,000 $15,000
143
6
510
529
20
23
4
5
6
ICC
OVER $15,000
482
236
181
67
0
100
254
206
NOW REGISTERED
844
842
874
7
23
26
2
892
ED
WILL REGISTER
89
ameo
13
52
115
NNN
100
100
REGISTERED CR WILL REGISTER
933
1007
59
9
29
100
WON'T REGISTER
41
59
49
100
NOT REGISTERED
135
172
41
8
25
4
22
100
REPUBLICAN
243
225
250
93
86
4
247
5
1
2
4
100
DENOCRAT
359
344
394
407
34
7
Mm
NWWOOM
44
17
100
INDEPENDENT
287
309
298
10
100
320
65
2
12
LEAN REPUBLICAN
134
169
143
100
177
6
LEAN DEMOCRAT
97
103
99
100
109
85
12
12
ww
10
OTHER INCEPENDENTS
110
93
113
49
42
2
34
2
100
CONSERVATIVE
216
228
237
211
77
10
9
14
1
6
100
6
LIBERAL
176
181
157
NOO-INWO
NWKNW
NOREO
100
162
40
main.
8
11
IN BETWEEN
476
468
515
534
59
100
LEAN CONSERVATIVE
220
235
262
246
66 60
I
100
17
LEAN LIBERAL
142
159
151
43
100
171
49
34
DTHER INDETWEEN
226
171
232
284
52
46
19
3
14
100
NIXON VOTERS
425
389
408
431
85
73
7
5
4
100
8
HUMPHREY VOTERS
233
210
219
235
WALLACE VCTERS
60
65
serwes
ANM
NAME
suwo
UNION
NAO
12
-
100
100
61
76
54
NONVOTERS
208
250
291
260
49
44
32
11
15
100
EAST
254
246
258
52
2
28
9
100
271
283
COOON
NNNN
10
3
MAIN
SUMM
nime
10
100
MICKEST
266
298
234
46
SOUTH
300
307
320
337
57
10
9
100
WEST
160
138
176
170
43
8
20
11
16
OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION
0002
me
Third Wave
National
September 5-16, 1972
1011 Interviews
V-4
B-1
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Number
Total - 100%
62 (+10)
32
(0)
6 (-10)
1011
Age
18-24 years
52 (+10)
44
(-6)
4 (-4)
158
25-34 years
64 (+18)
33 (-7)
3 (-11)
198
35-44 years
58 (-1)
36 (+10)
6 (-9)
178
45-54 years
66 (+21)
27 (-1)
7 (-20)
150
55-64 years
61 (+4)
29 (-3)
10 (-1)
144
65 years +
68 (+5)
25
(+8)
6 (-14)
183
Education
Less than high school
56
(+8)
38
(+9)
7 (-16)
285
High school graduate
67 (+11)
26
(-5)
7 (-6)
359
College
66 (+14)
32 (-5)
3 (-8)
364
Religion
Catholic
63 (+15)
31
(-3)
6 (-12)
272
Protestant
66 (+9)
29
(+1)
5 (-10)
608
Jewish
32 (+7)
56 (+10)
15 (-14)
31
Other
49 (+13)
44 (-7)
7 (-6)
82
Race
White
67 (+11)
26
(-2)
7
(-9)
870
Black
25 (+1)
74 (+9)
2 (-9)
106
Spanish American
50 (+42)
42 (-16)
8 (-26)
16
Union
Yes
56 (+13)
39
(-1)
5 (-12)
321
No
66
(+8)
29
(+2)
6 (-9)
660
Income
Under $5,000
58 (+15)
35
(+3)
8 (-17)
180
$5,000-9,999
59 (+13)
35 (-4)
6 (-9)
327
$10,000-14,999
65 (+12)
29
(-2)
6 (-10)
223
$15,000 +
72 (+12)
25
(-5)
4 (-6)
202
Sex
Male
61 (+5)
33
(+5)
6 (-10)
501
Female
64 (+17)
31 (-5)
6 (-11)
510
Geographic (Political)
East
61 (+10)
30 (-6)
9 (-4)
250
Midwest
58 (+11)
38 (+2)
4 (-13)
282
South
67 (+9)
27 (+3)
7 (-11)
331
West
60 (+14)
35
(-2)
4 (-13)
148
'!
Special Ballot
Definitely Nixon
99
1
0
424
Probably Nixon
99
0
1
122
Undecided/Lean to
Nixon
90
2
8
61
Completely Undecided
38
23
40
55
Undecided/Lean to
McGovern
1
94
5
57
Probably McGovern
4
93
3
79
Definitely McGovern
4
96
0
175
QUESTION 4 & 5
69072
AUGUST 29-31, 1972
974
INTERVIEWS
NIXON-MCGOVERN TRIAL HEAT
SEPT 29 - OCT 1, 1972
980 INTERVIEWS
PERCENTAGE
BASE
TOTAL
TOTAL
UNWTO WTD
NIXON
MCGOVERN
UNDECIDED
TOTAL PUBLIC
974 10651
63
57
28
29
9
MEN
484
5042
65
61
28
26
7
WOMEN
490
5609
62 54
26
30
12
16-20 YEARS OF AGE
52
847
66
55
33
36
1
21-29 YEARS
218
1952
57 57
36
36
7
30-49 YEARS
402
3815
64 63
26
20
10
50 YEARS AND OVER
293
3880
64 54
24
31
12
18-24 YEARS
154
1649
61
54
37
36
2
8TH GRADE OR LESS
91
2457
51
53
29
28
20
HIGH SCHOOL INCOMPLETE
120
1846
60 51
32
8
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
338
3787
68 59
25
25
7
SOME COLLEGE
415
2444
68 64
26
29
6
UNION FAMILIES
269
3147
59
55
28
32
13
NONUNION FAMILIES
705
7504
65
58
27
27
8
WHITE
841
9362
68
62
23
25
9
NONWHITE
126
1248
24
25
61
54
15
PROTESTANT
579
6428
70
64
22
22
8
CATHOLIC
219
2506
60 50
26
37
14
JEWISH
31
297
37
35
54
44
9
UNDER $5,000 INCOME
130
2084
51
44
41
43
8
$5,000 $15,000
510
5551
61
25
10
OVER $15,000
236
1814
71
67
24
27
5
NOW REGISTERED
844
8920
64
59
28
9
WILL REGISTER
89
1146
63
3
REGISTERED CR WILL REGISTER
933 10066
63
23
8
WON' REGISTER
41
585
53
18
29
29
NOT REGISTERED
49
REPUBLICAN
225
2468
96
90
2
6
2
DENOCRAT
344
3937
41 35
48
48
11
INDEPENDENT
308
3198
68 a E3
22
25
10
LEAN REPUBLICAN
169
1774
95 65
3
9
2
LEAN DEMOCRAT
103
IC88
27 36
62
54
11
OTHER INDEPENDENTS
85
930
53 54
13
14
34
CONSERVATIVE
228
2372
83
79
11
15
6
LIBERAL
181
1622
45
28
44 62
11
IN BETWEEN
468 5148
63 58
29 25
8
LEAN CONSERVATIVE
235
2624
70 67
21
21
9
LEAN LIBERAL
159
1712
51 51
42
7
OTHER INBETWEEN
171
2321
56
53
30
22
14
NIXON VOTERS
339
4081
89
60
7
12
4
PUMPHREY VOTERS
210
2187
36
52
12
WALLACE VOTERS
60
759
65 59
26
9
NONVOTERS
250
2911
52
52
37
33
11
EAST
246
2712
58
54
33
36
9
MICWEST
283
2982
63
54
30
10
SOUTH
307
3201
67 67
24
19
9
WEST
138
1756
61
51
28
33
11
CRINICN RESEARCH CORPORATION
0005
Chicago Tribuno-New York Nows Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, E.Y. 10017
HARRIS FUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, November 9th, 1972
Not Before
By Louin Marris
The outcome of the 1972 elections may signal some realignments
in basic Republican and Democratic party strength in the country, but in a
hypothetical trial heat for the presidency in 1975, conducted shortly
before last Tuesday's voting, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts ran
51-43 percent ahead of Vice President Spiro Agnew.
Mr. Agnew has been widely mentioned as one of the more
prominent contenders for the Republican nomination four years from now.
Edward Kennedy's extensive campaigning not only for George McGovern but
for local candidates in many parts of the country has not diminished his
prospects for the Democratic nomination in 1976.
In mid-October, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross
section of 1,633 likely voters:
"Suppose for President in 1975 it were between Spiro Agnew for the
Republicans and Senator Edward Kennedy for the Democrats. If you had
to choose, would you vote for Agnew the Republican, or Kennedy the
Democrat?
AGNEW VS. KENNEDY IN 1976
Total
Voters
32
Agnew
43
Kennedy
51
Not sure
6
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, November 9th, 1972
Here are some of the results among key voting segments of
the electorate as they viewed such a contest for the White House four
years hence:
Kennedy ran well ahead of Agnew in three out of four
sections of the country. In the East, he was in front by 50-42 percent,
in the Midwest by 53-40 percent, and in the West by 58-36 percent. Only
in the South did Agnew finish in the lead, by 53-43 percent. In the
Deep South, the Agnew margin was an even larger 59-39 percent. But in
the pivotal eight largest industrial states of the North, Kennedy held
a 53-40 percent lead.
--- The division of the vote in the Agnew-Kennedy contest
showed sharp and dramatic differences by age groups. Kennedy swept the
vote of young people under 30 by 66-30 percent, and ran ahead among the
30-49 age bracket by 52-42 percent. However, Agnew finished in the lead
among voters 50 years of age and over by 51-41 percent.
When the electorate was divided according to education,
Kennedy ran ahead among all groups, no matter what their education level:
by 59-34 percent among those who never went beyond the eighth grade, by
a narrow 47-46 percent among those with a high school education, and by a
more sizable 51-43 percent among the college-educated,
-- Kennedy won the male vote by a close 48-46 percent, but
was ahead by a handy 54-40 percent among women.
--- Agnew was ahead among whites by 49-45 percent, but Kennedy
more than made up this deficit by an overwhelming 90-4 percent lead
among blacks.
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, November 9th, 1972
- 3 --
The vote along economic lines showed Kennedy winning
those with incomes under $5,000 per year by a wide 58-35 percent and
the $5,000-$9,999 a year segment by 54-41 percent. However, Agnew edged
out the Missachusetts Senator by a close 47-45 percent among the
$10,000-$14,999 group and by 48-46 percent among those with incomes
of $15,000 and over.
Union members voted for Kennedy over Agnew by a decisive
57-37 percent.
Republicans went overwhelmingly for Agnew by a 76-19
percent margin, but Democrats preferred Kennedy by an almost as large
73-22 percent. The pivotal independent vote went to Kennedy by 47-42
percent.
Catholic voters, who were so vigorously sought out in
the 1972 election, were carried by Kennedy by 50-41 percent. However,
white Protestants went for Agnew by 56-38 percent. Jewish voters, on
the other hand, gave Konnedy a 75-18 percent majority.
Kennedy held a normal margin for Democrats in the big
cities, 54-37 percent, while malcing a strong run in the suburbs, finishing
ahead there by 50-45 percent. The vote in the small towns and the rural
areas went to Agnew by narrow margins.
(MORE)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS, November 9th, 1972
- 4 -
Obviously, this test run for 1976 was purely hypothetical-
and the expression of public opinion was taking place over four years
before that election for president would actually be held. When the
survey was taken, Spiro Agnew was running for Vice President, not
President, while Edward Kennedy was not running for any office at all.
The indications are, however, that Presidential politics in the United
States will follow its own path irrespective of the verdict this
November. And the outcome will again be heavily influenced by the
makeup between the individuals chosen to carry the mantle by their
respective political parties.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N. Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Sunday A.M., October 22, 1972 -- Not Before
By Louis Harris
President Nixon holds a nationwide 25-point lead over Sen. McGovern,
59-34 percent, in the latest Harris Survey, conducted in-person among 1,633 likely
voters between October 17th and 19th.
This latest Nixon margin is somewhat less than the 27-point spread in early
October and considerably below the 34-point lead the President held in early September.
Despite consistent marginal McGovern gains over the past six weeks, however,
the Nixon lead is one of the widest ever recorded at this stage of a Presidential
contest.
Here is the trend of results to Harris Surveys which presented
this basic question in person to cross sections of likely voters:
"Suppose the election for President. were being held right now and you
had to choose between Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator
George McGovern for the Democrats, whom would you be for?"
NIXON-McGOVERN TRIAL HEAT TREND
Not
Nixon
McGovern
Sure
%
%
%
Oct. 16-19
59
34
7
Oct. 3-5
60
33
7
Sept. 19-21
59
31
10
Early Sept.
63
29
8
Aug.
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
June
54
38
8
May
48
41
11
The shifts from early to mid-October in voter preference by key groups has
been marginal. Among the key findings in this latest survey are these by now consistent
trends:
( MORE )
- President Nixon continues to hold a relatively narrow 52-44 percent
lead among voters under 30. The contest is closest among new voters 18-24 years of
age, where the Nixon lead is only 50-47 percent. Nonetheless, the McGovern camp
had counted heavily on carrying the vote of young people.
- In the eight largest northern states (New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and California), Richard Nixon now runs ahead
by 56-37 percent, a little better than the 54-38 percent edge he held early in October.
These latest results point to a narrowing of the difference in voting patterns between
the big industrial states and the rest of the country. McGovern has registered some
gains in the South, where he trails by 67-26 percent, and in the West, where he is
behind by 52-41 percent.
-- For the fourth Harris Survey in a row, McGovern has picked up support
among Democratic party voters. But the change has been slow and gradual rather than
a massive return of Democrats to their own party:
TREND AMONG DEMOCRATS
Not
Nixon
McGovern
Sure
%
%
%
Mid-Oct.
37
54
9
Early Oct.
40
53
7
Mid-Sept.
41
48
11
Early Sept.
43
47
10
Aug.
38
53
9
July
36
53
11
June
36
55
9
May
29
59
12
Sen. McGovern has almost returned to where he was among Democrats in June and
July, but still has not come close to regaining the position he held in May, when he was
running only 7 points behind Mr. Nixon among all voters nationwide.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) -- October 22, 1972
3.
The major problem faced by McGovern is his inability to inspire personal
confidence among the voters. Here is the trend in his standing on "inspiring
confidence as a President should":
CONFIDENCE IN McGOVERN
Not
Positive
Negative
Sure
%
%
%
Mid-Oct.
34
59
7
Early Oct.
31
58
11
Mid-Sept.
28
55
17
Early Sept.
29
58
13
Aug.
37
47
16
July
35
44
21
June
39
38
23
May
36
33
31
McGovern has recently been scoring some in his attacks on Mr. Nixon over
the purported profits made in the wheat deal with Russia, the Watergate bugging
disclosures, and the claimed ties of the Nixon Administration with big business.
A substantial 61 percent agree with the statement that the Senator is "right
to point out the ties between big business contributors to the Republican party and
favors received from the Nixon Administration" An even higher 64 percent agree the
Senator is "right to expose profiteering in the wheat deal with Russia." And 55
percent say McGovern is "right to emphasize involvement of Nixon aides in the attempt
to bug Democratic headquarters." These issues have helped the Democratic nominee,
but only marginally up to this point in time.
The heart of McGovern's problem can be found in the 61-28 percent majority who
agree with the statement that "Senator McGovern seemed to be a different type of politic.
leader, but lately he seems to have become just another politician promising each group
voters what it wants". The course of the McGovern campaign has generated skepticism
rather than confidence about his ability to fill the office for which he is running,
with 61 percent of the voters now expressing doubts about the Senator's judgment.
#
#
#
#
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, October 26th, 1972
Not Befor
By Louis Harris
Even though for most of this election year President Nixon has
held a wide and even at times unprecedented lead over Sen. George McGovern,
as the campaign enters its final days there are some untidy dimensions to
the 1972 balloting that readers ought to be concerned about when assessing
the results of public opinion surveys.
1. In an election in which one candidate has held a rather wide
lead, the polis will tend to overpredict the margin for the front-runner.
In 1964, both the Harris and Gallup Polls were three points too high for
Lyndon Johnson against Barry Goldwater. Part of the reason for this
overstatement of the big winner's margin lies in the fact that the underdog
supporters feel their votes are vitally needed, while the leader's backers
believe he will win whether or not they actually vote.
2. At last count, by 46-41 percent, a plurality of the voting
public felt that President Nixon "did not deserve to win by a landslide.
Buttressing this sentiment is the further finding that when measured by
itself, confidence in Richard Nixon personally has never been as great as t
leads he has held in the Presidential pairings.
In response to the question of rating the "confidence he inspires
in the White House, " Mr. Nixon has been on the positive side of the ledger
far less
often than he has received negative ratings from the public:
(MORE)
"How would you rate President Nixon on inspiring confidence personally
in the White House
excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
11
TREND ON NIXON INSPIRING CONFIDENCE
Posi-
Nega-
Not
tive
tive
Sure
90
%
%
Oct., '72
48
45
7
Sept.
50
39
11
Aug.
45
43
12
June
42
48
10
May
36
50
14
April
32
52
16
March
35
51
14
July, '71
29
56
15
Coming off his low point of July, 1971, Mr. Nixon has made a
remarkable recovery in moving to his latest confidence rating of 48-45
percent positive. But the fact remains that it is only by a relatively
small margin that the voting public feels positively about President
Nixon in the White House.
At the same time, the same 1,565 voters in early October were
also asked this question:
"If he were President, who do you think would better inspire confidence
personally in the White House --- Richard Nixon or George McGovern?"
WHO INSPIRES CONFIDENCE?
Nix-
McGov-
Not
on
ern
Sure
%
89
39
Total Voters
56
26
18
By Age
18-29
45
37
18
30-49
61
22
17
50 and over
60
24
16
Union Members
49
32
19
By Region
East
50
29
21
Midwest
58
26
16
South
68
18
14
West
50
32
18
Big No. States
50
32
18
(MORE)
The gap between the slim three-point margin by which voters give
Mr. Nixon positive marks on "inspiring confidence" and the 30-point edge
between himself and Senator McGovern on a head-to-head measure of confiden
must be traced to the lack of voter trust in the Democratic nominee. Even
groups such as union members, young people, and voters in the big industri
states of the North --- all of whom tend to agree more with McGovern on th
issues express more confidence in Richard Nixon by a clear margin. By
a substantial 58-31 percent, a majority of voters agree with the claim tha
"Sen. McGovern does not inspire confidence as a President should. "
Yet the reader of polls should ask himself the key question:
will voters go into the booths voting for or against Richard Nixon on the
key confidence dimension or will they be making a comparison between
Mr. Nixon and Sen. McGovern?
3. Much has been made in this election of the fact that with the
18-year-olds voting in this election for the first time, and with young
=
people presumably turned on by the McGovern campaign, there could be some
surprises in the turnout at the polls on November 7th.
Yet the Harris Survey has results which cast some doubt about
just how much the young will come out to vote in this election. According
to Harris Surveys completed just before registration closed out in the
country, the under-30 vote reports it is registered at a rate some 20 poin
lower than persons over 30. Again, when asked if they felt certain to vo
in the election, the under-30 group ran a full 10 points below the over-30
vote. In fact, the electorate as a whole reported that it "felt certain
to vote" by 10 points less than at a comparable time in 1968.
(MORE)
These findings reveal two facts of life about the election:
first, that young people have a much greater burden placed on them in th:
all between 18 and 24 years of age have to take the initiative to regist
and traditionally new voters register and vote in lesser numbers than olc
voters; and second, that young people in this election actually are less
involved than other segments of the electorate.
4. Throughout the campaign, the electorate has expressed an
increasing desire to vote Democratic for Congress, raising the question (
just how much of the vote in the end will be a straight party vote, and, wi
= close to one voter in five split his ticket when he gets inside the votir
booth?
5: At last count, the undecided vote still remained at seven
= percent. A majority of these undecideds, 51 percent, said they felt
= alienated toward the establishment in the country and by better than 4-t.c
they were Democrats. On the other hand, by better than 2-to-1, this same
= undecided vote is worried about Senator McGovern not "inspiring enough
confidence." Up to early October, the undecided vote appeared to be
=
splitting about even between the two major party candidates. If it all
went to McGovern, however, it could considerably close the gap.
6. The polls tend to reflect the vote division between two majo
= candidates at a single point in time. However, there are at least two
other candidates, Rep. John Schmitz of the American Independent and Dr.
-
Benjamin Spock of the People's Party, who could draw off some votes.
:
At early October, Schmitz was winning no more than two percent and Spock
only one percent of the vote. But, if disenchantment with the two major
:
parties grows as the race goes to the wire, the third and fourth parties
could gain ground.
(MORE)
7. Added to all of these tough and enigmatic dimensions is the
fact that any well-run, in-person public opinion survey can be off in term
of a margin of error by four points either way in 95 cases out of 100.
This 4-point margin of error must be kept in mind when assessing the
relation between the polls and the actual voting on Nov. 7th.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, October 26th, 1972
Not Befor
By Louis Harris
Even though for most of this election year President Nixon has
held a wide and even at times unprecedented lead over Sen. George McGovern,
as the campaign enters its final days there are some untidy dimensions to
the 1972 balloting that readers ought to be concerned about when assessing
= the results of public opinion surveys.
1. In an election in which one candidate has held a rather wide
-- lead, the polls will tend to overpredict the margin for the front-runner.
--
In 1964, both the Harris and Gallup Polls were three points too high for
= Lyndon Johnson against Barry Goldwater. Part of the reason for this
= overstatement of the big winner's margin lies in the fact that the underdog
= supporters feel their votes are vitally needed, while the leader's backers
= believe he will win whether or not they actually vote.
2. At last count, by 46-41 percent, a plurality of the voting
= public felt that President Nixon "did not deserve to win by a landslide.
= Buttressing this sentiment is the further finding that when measured by
- itself, confidence in Richard Nixon personally has never been as great as 1
- leads he has held in the Presidential pairings.
In response to the question of rating the "confidence he inspires
in the White House, If Mr. Nixon has been on the positive side of the ledger
far less
often than he has received negative ratings from the public:
(MORE)
"How would you rate President Nixon on inspiring confidence personally
in the White House excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
TREND ON NIXON INSPIRING CONFIDENCE
Posi-
Nega-
Not
tive
tive
Sure
is
%
Oct., '72
48
45
7
Sept.
50
39
11
Aug.
45
43
12
June
42
48
10
May
36
50
14
April
32
52
16
March
35
51
14
July, '71
29
56
15
Coming off his low point of July, 1971, Mr. Nixon has made a
= remarkable recovery in moving to his latest confidence rating of 48-45
percent positive. But the fact remains that it is only by a relatively
small margin that the voting public feels positively about President
Nixon in the White House.
-
At the same time, the same 1,565 voters in early October were
: also asked this question:
"If he were President, who do you think would better inspire confidence
personally in the White House
Richard Nixon or George McGovern?"
WHO INSPIRES CONFIDENCE?
Nix-
McGov-
Not
on
ern
Sure
%
89
To
Total Voters
56
26
18
By Age
18-29
45
37
18
30-49
61
22
17
50 and over
60
24
16
Union Members
49
32
19
By Megion
East
50
29
21
Midwest
58
26
16
South
68
18
14
West
50
32
18
Big No. States
50
32
18
(MORE)
The gap between the slim three-point margin by which voters give
Mr. Nixon positive marks on "inspiring confidence" and the 30-point edge
between himself and Senator McGovern on a head-to-head measure of confiden
must be traced to the lack of voter trust in the Democratic nominee. Even
groups such as union members, young people, and voters in the big industri
states of the North all of whom tend to agree more with McGovern on th
issues express more confidence in Richard Nixon by a clear margin. By
a substantial 58-31 percent, a majority of voters agree with the claim tha
"Sen. McGovern does not inspire confidence as a President should."
Yet the reader of polls should ask himself the key question:
=
will voters go into the booths voting for or against Richard Nixon on the
key confidence dimension or will they be making a comparison between
Mr. Nixon and Sen. McGovern?
3. Much has been made in this election of the fact that with the
:
18-year-olds voting in this election for the first time, and with young
11
people presumably turned on by the McGovern campaign, there could be some
surprises in the turnout at the polls on November 7th.
Yet the Harris Survey has results which cast some doubt about
:
just how much the young will come out to vote in this election. According
to Harris Surveys completed just before registration closed out in the
country, the under-30 vote reports it is registered at a rate some 20 poin
:
lower than persons over 30. Again, when asked if they felt "certain to vo
in the election, the under-30 group ran a full 10 points below the over-30
vote. In fact, the electorate as a whole reported that it "felt certain
to vote" by 10 points less than at a comparable time in 1968.
(NORE)
These findings reveal two facts of life about the election:
first, that young people have a much greater burden placed on them in the
all between 18 and 24 years of age have to take the initiative to registe
and traditionally new voters register and vote in lesser numbers than olc
voters; and second, that young people in this election actually are less
-
involved than other segments of the electorate.
4. Throughout the campaign, the electorate has expressed an
- increasing desire to vote Democratic for Congress, raising the question C
=
just how much of the vote in the end will be a straight party vote and, wi
= close to one voter in five split his ticket when he gets inside the votin
booth?
5. At last count, the undecided vote still remained at seven
= percent. A majority of these undecideds, 51 percent, said they felt
= alienated toward the establishment in the country and by better than 4-to
they were Democrats. On the other hand, by better than 2-to-1, this same
= undecided vote is worried about Senator McGovern not "inspiring enough
--
confidence." Up to early October, the undecided vote appeared to be
=
splitting about even between the two major party candidates. If it all
-
went to McGovern, however, it could considerably close the gap.
6. The polls tend to reflect the vote division between two majo
= candidates at a single point in time. However, there are at least two
= other candidates, Rep. John Schmitz of the American Independent and Dr.
-
Benjamin Spock of the People's Party, who could draw off some votes.
At early October, Schmitz was winning no more than two percent and Spock
only one percent of the vote. But, if disenchantment with the two major
parties grows as the race goes to the wire, the third and fourth parties
could gain ground.
(MORE)
7. Added to all of these tough and enigmatic dimensions is the
fact that any well-run, in-person public opinion survey can be off in ter
of 2 margin of error by four points either way in 95 cases out of 100.
This 4-point margin of error must be kept in mind when assessing the
relation between the polls and the actual voting on Nov. 7th.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, October 16th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although President Nixon has been running well ahead of Sen.
McGovern, Democrats across the country lead Republicans in voter
preferences for Congress. Nationwide, Democratic congressional candidates
were ahead by 9 points in early October, 48-39 percent.
This is identical to the 49-40 percent edge the Democrats
enjoyed at this time four years ago when they retained control of the
Congress, although losing the popular vote for President by a slim margin.
Moreover, ticket-splitting is much more in evidence in 1972 than it was
in 1968
Here is the trend of voter preference in the Congressional
races, as measured in this question asked of 1,585 likely voters across
the nation between October 3rd and 5th:
"If the election were being held today and you had to decide right now,
in this Congressional District, would you vote for the Republican or
Democratic candidate for Congress?'
PREFERENCE FOR CONGRESS
Not
Dem.
Rep.
Sure
's
PP
is
Early Oct. '72
48
39
13
Mid. -Sept.
45
38
17
Early Sept.
46
41
13
Oct. '68
49
40
11
(MORE)
Harris Survey -- October 16, 1972
- 2
Over the past three Harris Surveys, the Democratic lead in
the races for Congress has risen from 5 to 7 to 9 points, despite the
fact that the head of the Democratic ticket, Sen. McGovern, continued to
trail well behind President Nixon. As of early October, there was a spli
vote of fully 36 percent among voters who intended to vote one party for
President and the other for Congress. The tug of traditional party
loyalty and the mechanics of actual ticket-splitting on Election Day,
however, will undoubtedly have a stabilizing effect on such potential
margins.
A number of dramatic ticket-splitting areas emerge when the
intended vote for President and for Congress are compared:
In the South, President Nixon in early October held a 70-25
percent lead, but the Democrats also held a 54-33 percent edge in the
contests for Congress. If the 45-percentage-point Nixon lead is added
to the 21-point Democratic edge for Congress, the split in the South
comes to 66 percent.
--- Union members were inclined 54-38 percent for the President
over Sen. McGovern, but indicated an even more decisive 56-31 percent
intention to cast their congressional votes for Democrats. Thus, the
spread among union members between the presidential and House lines on th
ballot could come to 41 percent of their vote.
(MORE)
Harris Survey -- October 16, 1972
- 3 -
AFL-CIO President George Meany has laid down a policy of
neutrality in the race for the White House, but is spending substantial
sums of money and effort to elect a Democratic Congress. If by his
failure to endorse McGovern, the Meany move can be taken to indicate an
attempt to help Richard Nixon, then by the present inclination of union
members, the Meany strategy appears to be working --- at least up to now.
--- Another key switching group in the electorate could well
be voters in the $10,000-$15,000 income bracket. They expressed an
intention of going for Mr. Nixon by 65-30 percent, but also to vote
Democratic by a 47-39 percent margin. All in all, this would be a spread
of 43 points in the split vote among upper-middle-income families if Sen.
McGovern fails to close the gap in the final weeks of the campaign.
---
The heart of the intended ticket-splitting can be found
among traditional Democrats, who in the early October Harris Survey were
going for Sen. McGovern by no more than 53-40 percent, well off their
usual party mark. However, in the contests for Congress, Democratic
party voters stated their intention of coming back to the Democratic
line to the tune of 79-12 percent. That would represent a theoretical
difference of 54 percent in the Democratic column on Election Day
between the margin for George McGovern and that for local candidates for
the House of Representatives.
--- An indication of how long or short Mr. Nixon's coattails
might be in this election is provided by the fact that by no better than
59-28 percent does the early October crop of Nixon voters also intend to
vote Republican for Congress. These results would indicate that as many
as 4-in-10 Nixon voters might stray from the Republican to Democratic
line when they get in the voting booths on November 7th.
Harris Survey -- October 16, 1972
- 4
One of the favorite themes of President Nixon this year has
been to talk of a "new majority" which his election would signify. Yet
this analysis of the vote-switching indicated by the voters themselves
would dictate quite a different conclusion.
Rather, these results are indicative of the low levels of
enthusiasm felt by voters this year for either presidential candidate.
Since the election campaign began, the number of voters who view themselv
as Republicans has remained remarkably constant
27 percent
---
as,
indeed, has the number who view themselves as Democrats ---- 52 percent.
The presidential race in 1972 has not greatly disturbed these basic
alignments as far as Congress is concerned.
The notion of having a President of one party and a Congress
of another is not without appeal, either, in a year such as 1972, when
faith in politics and politicians is at one of its lowest ebbs in modern
times. In light of this disenchantment, it is little wonder that at last
count, by 57-36 percent, a majority of voters agreed with the statement
that it was "a good idea to have a President of one party and a Congess
of another to check up on each other. 11
If President Nixon's lead does not shrink appreciably in the
final weeks of the campaign, this acceptance of Republican
control of the executive branch and Democratic control of the legislative
branch will be put to the acid test. To accomplish such an end would
require the most massive ticket-splitting in the entire history of
American elections. But that is what most voters have been saying they
intend to do three weeks from tomorrow.
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, October 16th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although President Nixon has been running well ahead of Sen.
McGovern, Democrats across the country lead Republicans in voter
preferences for Congress. Nationwide, Democratic congressional candidates
were ahead by 9 points in early October, 48-39 percent.
This is identical to the 49-40 percent edge the Democrats
enjoyed at this time four years ago when they retained control of the
Congress, although losing the popular vote for President by a slim margin.
Moreover, ticket-splitting is much more in evidence in 1972 than it was
in 1968
Here is the trend of voter preference in the Congressional
races, as measured in this question asked of 1,585 likely voters across
the nation between October 3rd and 5th:
"If the election were being held today and you had to decide right now,
in this Congressional District, would you vote for the Republican or
Democratic candidate for Congress?"
PREFERENCE FOR CONGRESS
Not
Dem.
Rep.
Sure
Po
%
To
Early Oct. '72
48
39
13
Mid. -Sept.
45
38
17
Early Sept.
46
41
13
Oct. '68
49
40
11
(MORE)
Harris Survey - October 16, 1972
2
Over the past three Harris Surveys, the Democratic lead in
the races for Congress has risen from 5 to 7 to 9 points, despite the
fact that the head of the Democratic ticket, Sen. McGovern, continued to
trail well behind President Nixon. As of early October, there was a spli
vote of fully 36 percent among voters who intended to vote one party for
President and the other for Congress. The tug of traditional party
loyalty and the mechanics of actual ticket-splitting on Election Day,
however, will undoubtedly have a stabilizing effect on such potential
margins.
A number of dramatic ticket-splitting areas emerge when the
intended vote for President and for Congress are compared:
In the South, President Nixon in early October held a 70-25
percent lead, but the Democrats also held a 54-33 percent edge in the
contests for Congress. If the 45-percentage-point Nixon lead is added
to the 21-point Democratic edge for Congress, the split in the South
comes to 66 percent.
Union members were inclined 54-38 percent for the President
over Sen. McGovern, but indicated an even more decisive 56-31 percent
intention to cast their congressional votes for Democrats. Thus, the
spread among union members between the presidential and House lines on the
ballot could come to 41 percent of their vote.
(MORE)
Harris Survey -- October 16, 1972
- 3 -
AFL-CIO President George Meany has laid down a policy of
neutrality in the race for the White House, but is spending substantial
sums of money and effort to elect a Democratic Congress. If by his
failure to endorse McGovern, the Meany move can be taken to indicate an
attempt to help Richard Nixon, then by the present inclination of union
members, the Meany strategy appears to be working --- at least up to now.
Another key switching group in the electorate could well
be voters in the $10,000-$15,000 income bracket. They expressed an
intention of going for Mr. Nixon by 65-30 percent, but also to vote
Democratic by & 47-39 percent margin. All in all, this would be a spread
of 43 points in the split vote among upper-middle-income families if Sen.
McGovern fails to close the gap in the final weeks of the campaign.
The heart of the intended ticket-spiitting can be found
among traditional Democrats, who in the early October Harris Survey were
going for Sen. McGovern by no more than 53-40 percent, well off their
usual party mark. However, in the contests for Congress, Democratic
party voters stated their intention of coming back to the Democratic
line to the tune of 79-12 percent. That would represent a theoretical
difference of 54 percent in the Democratic column on Election Day
between the margin for George McGovern and that for local candidates for
the House of Representatives.
An indication of how long or short Mr. Nixon's coattails
might be in this election is provided by the fact that by no better than
59-28 percent does the early October crop of Nixon voters also intend to
vote Republican for Congress. These results would indicate that as many
as 4-in-10 Nixon voters might stray from the Republican to Democratic
line when they get in the voting booths on November 7th.
Harris Survey -- October 16, 1972
4
One of the favorite themes of President Nixon this year has
been to talk of a "new majority" which his election would signify. Yet
this analysis of the vote-switching indicated by the voters themselves
would dictate quite a different conclusion.
Rather, these results are indicative of the low levels of
enthusiasm felt by voters this year for either presidential candidate.
Since the election campaign began, the number of voters who view themselve
as Republicans has remained remarkably constant --- 27
percent
---
as,
indeed, has the number who view themselves as Democrats ---- 52 percent.
The presidential race in 1972 has not greatly disturbed these basic
alignments as far as Congress is concerned.
The notion of having a President of one party and a Congress
of another is not without appeal, either, in a year such as 1972, when
faith in politics and politicians is at one of its lowest ebbs in modern
times. In light of this disenchantment, it is little wonder that at last
count, by 57-36 percent, a majority of voters agreed with the statement
that it was "a good idea to have a President of one party and a Congess
of another to check up on each other. "
If President Nixon's lead does not shrink appreciably in the
final weeks of the campaign, this acceptance of Republican
control of the executive branch and Democratic control of the legislative
branch will be put to the acid test. To accomplish such an end would
require the most massive ticket-splitting in the entire history of
American elections, But that is what most voters have been saying they
intend to do three weeks from tomorrow.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-Now York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Tuesday AM, October 10th, 1972 -- NOT BEFORE
by Louis Harris
In the latest Harris Survey, conducted among 1,585 likely voters between October
3rd-5th, President Richard Nixon holds a 60-33 percent lead over his Democratic opponent,
Senator George McGovern. This current 27-point Nixon lead is down one point from the
28-point margin the President held in the last Harris Survey of Sept. 19-21st.
The only shift of any consequence to take place among key segments of the electora
can be observed among black voters, who now indicate by 82-12 percent that they intend to vo
for McGovern. In early September, the vote division among blacks was 67-22 percent for the
Democratic nominee. Mr. Nixon's widest lead is in the South, where he is ahead by 70-25
percent, and the election is closest in the 8 largest states of the North, where he runs
ahead by 54-38 percent, a 16-point margin.
One key element to watch in the four weeks remaining in this campaign is the
extent to which a kind of "underdog reaction"can set in for McGovern. In this latest survey,
by 46-41 percent, voters agreed with, the proposition that, "President Nixon does not deserve
to win by a landslide "
Offsetting this possible underdog effect is the matter of personal trust in the
respective two candidates. On this dimension President Nixon leads Senator McGovern by
60-29 percent, a 31-point margin for the Republican incumbent. In addition, when only that
82 percent of the likely voters who said they are "certain to vote" on November 7th are
>
looked at separately, the Nixon lead rises to 63-32 percent, also a 31-point edge.
The cross-section was asked these questions in this latest Harris Survey:
(More L
"Suppose the election for President were being held right now and you had to choose betwee
Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator George McGovern for the Democrats, who would
you be for?"
and
" (IF 'NOT SURE') If you had to say, would you lean toward Nix
the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
WITHOUT LEANERS
Total Likely
Voters
%
Nixon
56
McGovern
29
Not sure
15
LEANER ANALYSIS
Total
"Not Sure"
%
Nixon
'4
McGovern
4
Not sure
7
When the committed and leaners are added together, the actual Nixon lead becomes
60-33 percent. Here is the trend of repeated Nixon-McGovern trial heat pairings:
TREND OF NIXON-McGOVERN PAIRINGS
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
Early Oct.
60
33
7
Mid-Sept.
59
31
10
Early Sept.
63
29
8
Aug.
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
(More)
In terms of his spread in a two-way contest, Mr. Nixon's current 27-point lead
is precisely the same as it was back in March, when Senator McGovern was far less well
known and then seemed to be far from a certainty to be the ultimate Democratic nominee.
This finding is significant, for it indicates that in all the political give and take
that has ensued since then, McGovern has not gained ground at all. Indeed, as the South
Dakota Senator has become a more familiar figure, he has created as many doubts as he has
won adherents.
Significant in this survey, as well, is the fact that those who are uncommitted
on the surface, but on the "leaner" question make a preference, the division is even for
both candidates. This is the third survey in a row where the uncommitted vote appears to
be splitting down the middle for each major party candidate. The possible draw-off of
third and fourth party candidates also is not reflected in these results.
As the word spreads that Richard Nixon holds a commanding lead in this election,
the likely voters are beginning to express more doubt that he "deserves to win by a
landslide". In early September and again in this latest survey, voters were asked:
"Do you feel that President Nixon deserves or not to win re-election by a landslide vote?"
DOES NIXON DESERVE TO WIN BY A LANDSLIDE?
Oct.
Sept.
%
%
Deserves to win by landslide
41
46
Does not deserve
46
40
Not sure
13
14
Fully 29 percent of the current Nixon voters feel that the President's current
landslide proportion lead is excessive. Undoubtedly, this segment of the electorate is one
that must be watched closely in these next four weeks.
( More L
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS), October 10, 1972
4
However, one of the offsetting elements to prospective gains by Senator McGovern
in his decidedly underdog stance is his failure to generate more personal confidence among
voters. Repeatedly, likely voters have been asked:
"If it came down to a matter of personal trust, who would you trust more to be the Preside
in the White House --- Richard Nixon or George McGovern?"
PERSONAL TRUST
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
Early Oct.
60
29
11
Early Sept.
66
24
10
August
60
27
13
July
56
31
13
Although the huge 42-point gap between the two men of a month ago on the confide
dimension has now dropped to 31 points, the telling finding is that on a straight personal
trust basis, Richard Nixon outdistances George McGovern more than he does in the actual vo
It is now evident that McGovern's task in the last four weeks is to either build up confid
in himself among voters or to cut into the reservoir of trust in his opponent, or both.
Whether or not this can be done unquestionably will determine both the size of future Nixo
leads and, indeed, the ultimate outcome on November 7th.
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
HARRIS SURVEY
September 22, 1972
8/2 - 8/3
8/28 9/1
9/19 - 9/21
N
McG
N
McG
NS
N
McG
NS
Nationwide
57
34
63
29
8
59
31
10
East
58
33
60
34
6
56
34
10
Midwest
53
36
64
29
7
53
34
13
South
65
27
70
19
11
70
22
8
West
55
39
58
34
8
59
32
9
Deep South
68
26
68
20
12
71
19
10
Border States
62
29
69
22
9
66
26
8
Cities
50
42
53
39
8
43
44
13
Suburbs
57
33
68
25
7
64
26
10
Towns
62
31
67
24
9
66
26
8
Rural
62
28
68
24
8
68
22
10
18-24 year olds
47
47
6
44
50
6'
25-49 year olds.
59
34
7
50
41
9
18-29 year olds53
43
52
42
6
47
45
8
30-49 year old58
34
68
25
7
63
29
8
50+
59
28
65
26
9
61
25
14
8th Grade
52
36
56
36
8
52
34
14
High School
58
31
66
26
8
60
29
11
College
58
37
63
31
6
59
33
8
Union
49
40
56.
34
10
55
34
11
Men
58
33
63
29
8
58
32
10
Women
56
35
63
29
8
59
30
11
White
62
29
67
25
8
64
26
10
Black
16
77
22
67
11
13
75
12
Under $5,000
52
39
56
36
8
53
37
10
$5,000-$9, 900 55
35
58
32
10
54
33
13
$10,000-$14, 900 58
31
70
23
7
64
27
9
$15,000+
65
30
71
24
5
66
27
7
Republicans
87
10
93
5
2
89
7
4
Democrats
38
53
43
47
10
41
48
11
Independents
60
25
68
22
10
66
26
12
White Catholics 55
33
62
27
11
58
31
11
WASP
68
24
74
20
6
71
20
9
Jewish
46
44
49
43
8
37
39
24
Irish
59
31
10
54
33
13
Italian
65
25
10
52
31
17
N Nixon
McG McGovern
NS - Not Sure
HARRIS SURVEYS
1972 TRIAL HEATS:
Nicon-McGovern
Niton-McCovern-Wallace
Nixon-Humphrey
Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace
Nixon-Muskie
Nixon-Muskie-Wallace
Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace
Page 1
NIXON-MCGOVERN DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY
May 9-10, 1972
June 10-15, 1972
July 1-6, 1972
August 2-3, 1972
Page 2
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE DEMOCRAPHIC STUDY
December 1971
Page 3
NIXON-HUMPHREY-DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY
May 9-10, 1972
Page 3
NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY
September 23-October 1, 1971
November, 1971
January 1972
Page 4
NIXON-KENNEDY-WALLACE DEMOGRAPHIED STUDY
September 24-October 1, 1971
Page 5
June 10-15, 1972 (3 way and 2 way)
1968 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
July 25-29, 1968
October S-10, 1968
Page6
1968 and 1961 TRIAL HEATS
Page 7
1964 Johnson DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY
Late July
Early Argust
Late August
Mid Sept mber
l'a;e8
100% Claring in Polls
Page 9
HARRIS TRIAL HEATS:
1972
Nixon
Kennedy
Wallace
Not Sure
August 1971
48
37
11
4
Sept. 24 Oct 1
45
38
11
6
December 20
45
37
11
7
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
Not Sure
Sept 23-Oct 1, 1971
47
35
11
7
November 1971
43
39
11
7
January 1972
42
42
11
5
February
44
40
11
5
March
47
35
12
6
April
44
33
15
8
Nixon
Muskie
Not Sure
Sept 23-Oct 1, 1971
50
40
10
November 1971
48
43
9
January 1972
45
48
7
February
47
45
8
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Not Sure
September 1971
45
36
12
7
November
45
36
12
7
January 1972
46
37
12
5
February
47
36
12
5
March
48
35
12
5
April
42
36
16
6
May
41
37
16
6
Nixon
Humphrey
Not Sure
February 1972
51
41
8
March
53
37
10
April
50
42
8
May
50
42
8
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Not Sure
August 1971
48
33
13
6
November 1971
49
31
12
8
March 1972
53
28
13
6
April 1972
47
29
16
S
May
40
35
17
8
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
March 1972
59
32
9
April
54
34
12
May
48
41
11
June
54
38
8
July
55
35
10
August
57
34
9
September
63
29
C
HARRIS SURVEY
Nixon
McGovere
The
Sure
Nivon
McGovern Not Sure
Nixon McGovern Not Sure
Nixon McGovern Not Sure
(May 9-10, 1972)
(June 10-15, 1972)
(July 1-6, 1972)
(August 2.3, 1972)
(1385 likely voters)
(1401 likely voters)
(1901 likely voters)
(1630 likely votors)
57
34
Nationwide
48
-11
11
54
38
8
55
35
10
-
58
33
Dast
42
47
11
51
42
7
53
37
10
9
53
36
11
Midwest
46
43
11
54
39
7
54
36
10
65
27
8
South
59
30
11
61
27
12
62
27
11
55
39
(,
West
47
44
9
49
45
6
45
45
10
68
26
6
Decp South
57
3-1
9
-
-
-
62
27
11
62
29
9
Border States
62
24
14
-
-
60
23
17
-
50
42
{
Cities
38
49
13
44
49
7
45
45
10
57
33
10
Suburbs
48
41
11
58
38
9
57
33
10
62
31
7
Towns
53
36
11
61
32
7
65
26
9
62
28
10
Rural
57
36
\
7
59
33
8
57
31
12
53
43
1
13-29
46
48
6
41
55
4
46
46
8
58
34
8
30-49
47
44
9
5,8
34
8
56
34
10
59
28
13
50-
51
34
15
59
30
11
59
29
12
52
36
12
8th grade
46
37
17
51
37
12
49
34
17
58
31
11
High school
47
41
12
56
35
9
54
35
11
58
37
5
Coliege
50
43
7
53
42
5
58
36
6
58
33
9
Men
49
41
10
53
39
8
57
33
10
56
35
9
Women
47
42
11
54
38
S
52
37
11
16
77
7
Black
21
62
17
27
74
4
24
64
12
62
29
9
White
51
39
10
57
35
S
59
31
10
52
39
9
Under $5,000
48
39
13
40
51
9
44
40
16
55
35
10
$5, 9, 999
51
39
10
57
37
6
54
37
9
58
31
11
000- 14, 999
51
39
10
54
38
8
60
32
8
65
30
5
$15,000 +
49
43
8
64
29
7
65
29
6
49
40
11
Union Members
35
53
12
46
44
10
50
39
11
87
10
3
Republican
82
14
4
86
11
3
S7
10
3
38
53
9
Democrat
29
59
12
36
55
9
36
53
11
60
25
15
Independent
43
42
15
54
37
9
54
34
12
55
33
12
Catholic
44
46
10
54
40
6
54
36
10
63
21
8
Protectant
58
33
9
66
25
9
66
25
9
46
4-1
10
Jewish
39
51
10
22
68
10
31
58
11
HARRIS DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 1972
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Not Sure
(Released January 6,1972)
Nationvide
45
36
12
7
Poll taken late 1971)
Under 30
39
40
13
8
30-49
45
37
12
6
50 +
51
32
10
7
Big Cities
37
46
10
7
Suburbs
51
34
10
5
Towns
51
31
12
6
Rural
47
29
15
9
Union Members
41
42
12
5
Nixon
Humphrey
Not Sure
(Poll taken May 9-10,
Nationwide
50
42
8
1972)
Independents
55
34
11
18-29 year olds
51
44
5
$15 M & Over
53
40
7
Blacks
9
87
&
4
8th Grade
43
48
9
Democrats
28
63
9
HARRIS SURVEYS
Sept 24-Oct 1, 1971
June 10-15, 1972
June 10-15, 1972
Nixon Kernedy Wallace Not Sure
Nixon Kennedy Wallace Not Sure
Nixon Kennedy Not Sure
Name: de
45
38
11
6
43
37
16
4
53
41
6
\
5, (00
35
43
14
8
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
). 999
37
42
13
8
39
40
19
2
51
46
3
$ . 0 1-14. 999
50
37
10
3
X
X
X
X
M
X
X
$15M
63
26
7
4
X
X
X
X
2
X
X
8th Grace
33
48
14
5
X
X
X
N
X
X
X
11.2.11 ,0
-11
40
13
6
X
X
2/2
X
X
X
M
CALL:
58
30
3
7
53
36
8
3
58
38
4
Whit.
52
30
12
6
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Mach
in
93
1
3
9
86
3
2
11
87
2
-
(...) Members 33
46
12
9
32
45
19
4
43
51
6
Millon milies 39
50
6
5
X
X
X
X
N
X
X
39
54
10
7
33
53
11
3
40
57
3
11-3.
45
40
10
ut
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
-17
33
12
8
X
M
X
M
X
X
X
X
==
%
X
38
43
16
3
47
48
5
X
X
X
X
43
32
19
6
57
36
7
HARRIS DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 1972
September 23-October 1, 1971
November, 1971
January, 1972
Nixon Muskie Wallace Not Sure
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
Not Sure
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
Not
Sure
Nationwide
47
35
11
7
43
39
11
7
42
42
11
5
18-20
{38
{38
{14
{io
38
38
13
11
27
53
13
7
21-29
33
47
13
7
30
54
12
4
30-49
46
40
10
4
42
40
12
6
43
42
11
4
50-
49
32
11
8
50
34
10
6
49
35
11
01
Under $5,000
41
36
13
10
39
36
15
10
42
43
11
4
$5, 000. 9, 999
41
36
13
10
40
40
13
7
39
44
12
5
$10, 000-14, 999
50
39
8
3
45
40
10
5
47
40
10
3
$15,000
57
34
6
3
53
37
6
4
45
42
7
6
HARRIS DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
1963
July 25-29, 1968
October 8-10, 1968
Not
Not
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Sure
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Sure
Nation-wide
36
41
16
7
40
35
18
7
40
38
12
10
East
Midwest
43
35
16
6
6
South
30
29
35
West
47
37
10
6
8th Grade or Less
26
44
19
11
High School
37
36
20
7
College
46
'37
10
7
53
29
14
4
Under 35
33
42
20
5
41
35
20
4
35-49
42
34
18
6
50 .1.
37
37
16
10
Cities
29
54
9
8
33
46
14
7
Suburbs
39
39
15
7
43
35
13
9
28
21
6
Towns
45
Rural
37
31
26
6
Republican
71
13
12
4
Democrat
14
65
14
7
I ndependent
37
26
27
10
Union
22
48
22
8
Negro
6
80
2
12
HARRIS TRIAL HEATS:
1964
Johnson
Goldwater
Undecided
Early July
(Pre GOP Conv)
72
22
6
Late July
61
31
8
Early August
59
32
9
Late August
59
32
9
Mid-September
60
32
8
Early October
58
34
8
Mid-October
60
34
6
End October
62
33
5
Actual Votes:
Republican
27,178,188
38.5%
Democrat
43,129,566
61.1%
Other
336,838
.4%
Johnson
Goldwater
(With undecided vote counted in)
Early July
74
26
Late July
64
36
Early August
62
38
Late August
62
38
Mid September
63
37
Early October
61
39
Late October
64
36
1968
Not
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Sure
June 10-17
36
43
13
8
July 8-14
35
37
17
11
July 25-29
36
41
16
7
August 24
40
34
17
9
September 11-13
39
31
21
9
October 8-10
40
35
18
7
October 27-8
40
37
16
7
November 1-2
42
40
12
6
Actual Votes:
Republican
31,785,480
43.4%
Democrat
31,274,166
42.7%
Amerindep
9,906,473
13.5%
Other
244,756
4%
VOTING FOR LYNDON JOHNSON FOR PRESIDENT
1964
HARRIS SURVEY
%in parenthese
Late July
Early August
Late August
Mid September
is % of voting population)
Nation=wide
61
62
62
63
East (32%)
74
65
64
67
Midwest (33%)
64
63
62
64
South (18%)
45
50
54
50
Vest (17%)
69
68
65
67
Cities (31%)
72
72
70
--
Suburbs (23%)
64
63
60
--
Towns (21%)
72
72
68
--
Rural (25%)
54
46
50
--
White (92%)
61
59
61
--
Vegro(8%)
92
84
88
--
Republican(33%)
39
33
32
36
Democrat (53%)
79
78
81
80
ndependent (14%)
67
67
66
65
Conservatives (36%)
46
50
46
50
Middle of d(44%)
69
61
66
65
Liberals (20%)
79
78
78
78
Protestant (70%)
59
57
+60
60
1
Catholic (24%)
72
72
67
69
(ewish(6%)
67
72
76
78
Men (49%)
64
62
62
60
21-34 (15%)
74
72
66
63
35-49 (16%)
61
59
62
62
50 + (18%)
57
55
59
57
Comen (51%)
64
62
62
66
21-34(14%)
66
64
61
67
35-49 (17%)
62
60
62
67
50+ (20%)
63
61
62
63
A2
Monday, Nov. 2, 1964
THE WASHINGTON POST
Charting the e Polls
Marris
Gallup
%
Pre-convention
July
August
Suptember
October
Elec Eye
For:
30-
33
73=
73
73
75
742
74
72
72
70
70
63=
63
66 -
35
64=
64
6?-
62
so
60
JOHNSON 53-
53
55-
55
5+=
51
52-
52
503
50
137
If
45-
45
41-
44
42-
42
40
40
33-
33
36-
36
34-
34
32-
32
30-
30
23-
23
26=
25
24
21
22
27
20
20
COLDWATER
13
15
145
14
12-
12
10
10
3
3
6-
UNDECIDED
6
4
4
2
?
C.
The Washington Post
When the two poils adjust their final un-
over the weekend, and ailot them, both will
decided figures, which were completed
read: Johnson, 61 pet; Goldwater, 36 pet.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, October 2nd, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harric
The heart of Son. Goorge NeGovern's bid for the White House in
the next five weeks rests on the proposition of whether he can turn
around the 55-28 parcent majority view that "he doesn't inspire
confidence as a President should."
There are some signs that the Democratic nominee's almost four-
month long olide in the polls may have ended. (He gained six points
in the Harris Survey reported last week.) But to come close to
winning on November 7th McGovern clearly must find a way to build the
faith of voters in him personally.
Here are some of the key dimensions pointing up McGovern's
problems drawn from a Harris Survey taken among 1,668 likely voters
between Sept. 19th-21st:
By 59-22 percent, a sizable majority of the voters agree with
the charge against the South Dakota Senator that "he seems to be
making too many mistakes that raise doubts about his judgment. II This
did not shift much during his first three weeks of campaigning in
September, since voters agreed with the same statement by 60-24
percent at the beginning of the month.
--- A cloud still hangs over Son. McGovern as a result of the
Engleton affair. Whon asked to comment on the statement that "he
handled the dropping of Senator Eagleton as his vice presidential
running with good judgment and good taste, voters express
disagrament by 48-39 percents.
Buttressing this reaction is the 52-30 percent who agree the
Senator McGovern "seems indecisive and unable to make up his mind."
As Sen. McGovern has mounted stronger attacks on President
Nixon, reaction of voters to the Senator personally has grown more
unfavorable. On the key dimension of having a "sincere, appealing
personality," back in May when he was making his dramatic rise to
capture the Democratic nomination, voters reacted positively to the
McGovern personality, 46-26 percent. This slipped to 42-34 percent
positive after the debates with Sen. Humphrey in the California
primary, then held at a narrow 43-39 percent positive after the
Eagleton episode. But by early September, as McGovern attacks on
his GOP opponents mounted, reaction to the Senator reversed to 48-37
percent negative. In late September, this negative set still held at
46-35.
---- As a consequence of these feelings about McGovern's being
"mistake-prone, " "lacking in good judgment, " and not appealing as a
"sincere personality," a majority of the voters, 51-32 percent, agree
with the statement that "he just leaves me flat and seems incapable of
inspiring the best in America. "
The net impact of this failure of Senator McGovern to engender a
sense of personal confidence has been the single most important reasor
for his running so far behind President Nixon in the early polls. To
measure the full degree of doubts voters have expressed about the
Senator, the Harris Survey has periodically asked:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator McGovern does not
inspire confidence as a President should?"
(more)
TREND ON CONFIDENCE IN McGOVERN
Not Inspire
Does
Not
Confidence
Inspire
Sure
&
&
Mid-Sept.
55
28
17
Early Sept.
58
29
13
Aug.
47
37
16
July
44
35
21
June
39
38
23
May
33
36
31
Precisely the same question has been asked about Richard Nixon
since August of 1971. Here is the trend on the same question:
TREND ON CONFIDENCE IN NIXON
Not Inspire
Does
Not
Confidence
Inspire
Sure
&
&
&
Sept. , '72
33
59
8
July
40
53
7
April
49
40
11
Feb.
49
40
11
Aug., '71
50
40
10
There is little doubt that the disparity between President Nixon
and Sen. McGovern on this key dimension of confidence was an importan
input into the 28-point lead enjoyed by Nixon in mid-September in
preferential tests.
The next five weeks will see both sides, in personal appearances
in the media, trying to build the credibility of their man and to den
the reservoir of trust of the opposition candidate.
(more)
Despite the problems Mr. Nixon has had in the past in his abilit
to arouse personal confidence and those Sen. McGovern has had in the
more recent past, both men are viewed as having a rather high sense O.
personal integrity: Sen. McGovern by a 44-27 percent margin and
President Nixon by 76-13 percent.
The central issue of confidence is not likely to be resolved eitl
on the matter of integrity or personal charisma. Neither man in 1972
viewed by voters as a magnetic personality. Rather, the focus will
come down hard on voter confidence in each's ability to lead the coun
And, on this score, Senator McGovern has much ground to make up in th
remaining weeks.
(Editor's Note: This is the first of two Harris Surveys reporting in
depth on public reaction to Sen. McGowern as of mid-September.)
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribunc-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Tuesday All, October 3rd, 1972
Not Befor
By Louis Harris
Although 66 percent of the voters give Sen. NeGovern credit
for having "the coursge to say what he thinks, even if it is unpopular
by 55-27 percent a majority also think "he wants to change things too
much" and, by 54-26 percent, that "he has too extreme liberal views. #
Thus, in addition to having a problem in inspiring confident
in his ability to lead the country as President, as reported yesterday
Sen. McGovern also has run into some sharp voter disagreement with
positions he has taken on key issues in the campaign.
On the issue side, however, the Democratic standard-bearer
has some promising ground to plow:
--- By 53-15 percent, voters give their endorsement to
McGovern efforts to "expose the profits that were made by dealers in
the grain deal recently made by the Nixon Administration with the
Russians. 11 Significantly, an even higher 55 percent of midwestern
voters, located in or near the wheat belt, agree with McGovern
criticisms on the wheat deal.
--- By 54-20 percent, they also are sympathetic with McGover
position against "the close ties between big business contributors to
the Republicans and the favors given them by the Mixon Administration.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY (DOHUS) -- October 3, 1972
- 2
--- By 51-23 percent, they feel McGovern "is right to emphas
the involvement of Mixon aides in the attempt to put lictening devices
in his and Democratic headquarters."
Thus, on the wheat deal, GOP ties with big business, and the
Watergate affair, the Senator from South Date ta appears to have some
effective campaign material which might win him some votes in the heav
going of the next five weeks.
By the same tolsen, there is another whole roster of issues o
which McGovern is in some real trouble:
----- By 54-21 percent, voters agree with the criticism that
"he was wrong to say that after 90 days in the White House he would
abolish all wage and price controls. 11 Though he has tempered some of
:
statements on controls to state that he would favor a system of guidel
the impression prevails that McGovern favors a slackening of controls
at a time when voters want tougher enforcement of wage and price contr
--- By 56-20 percent, voters feel that Sen. McGovern's
"program for redistributing the wealth is too radical." Again, the
Democratic standard-bearer in August modified many of his more extreme
ideas of June. But the stamp on McGovern in this campaign is that
somehow he is beyond the limits of tolerance on income redistribution.
--- McGovern does better on the score of being known 03 &
"fighter for tax reform and help for the working man," a statement
agreed to by a 43-33 percent margin. However, he is losing ground 23
the compaign progresses on this appeal, for it was running 49-27 perce
in his favor on the tax reform issue in early August.
(move)
HARRIS SURVEY (WINUD) - October 3, 1972
- 3 -
Much of the Initial McGovern appeal on the Vietnam
issue has now been discipated, as the following table shows.
Periciically, the Horris Survey has asked this question, most recentl
among 1,008 likely voters between Sept. 19-21:
"Do you tend to agree OF disagree that Senutor McGovern deserves a lo
of credit for being against the Vietnam Ver before others MeΓa?"
McGOVERN CREDIT FOR BEING AGAINST THE WAR
Deserves Not
Not
Credit
Deserve
Sure
&
&
is
Mid-Sept.
39
41
20
Early Sept.
42
41
17
Aug.
51
34
15
July
50
31
19
June
50
29
21
May
54
21
25
Hurch
41
19
40
Sen. McGovern's support for "being right" in opposing the
war has obviously eroded, mainly as the result of some of the
statements he has made on Vietnam. One of these, for example, on
which he has run into heavy criticism was his promise that "if electe-
President he would go to Hanoi and beg for the release of U.S.
prisoners of war," negatively received by a 48-33 percent margin.
As a result of many of these stands, Sen. McGovern has now
inherited the mantle of "having too extrome liberal views, II an
estimate held by a 54-26 percent count, The latest reading on this
dimension 1c a bit down from the 57-25 percent majority who believed
it in carly September, but is still sharply up from the 31 percent who
gave the charge credence In May.
(more)
HARRIS Survey (BONUS) - October 3. 1972
- 11
The net impact of these position troubles for Dan. Nodovern
is that much of the thrust has gone out of his initially powerful appet
as a condidate for change i this election. For example, in carly Jun
by a narrow 38-34 percent margin, a plurality of voters felt "he stood
For the right itind of change.' But nos, by 44-33 percent, votern have
turned around and deny his change is the "right kind. 11 To the controry
by 55-27 percent, a unjority think McGovern wants to "change things tor
much, 11 down some from the 59-28 percent division who felt this way in
early September, but still a dramatic turnaround from the 38-36 percent
plurality who denied the claim back in May.
Sen. McGovern has some fertile ground perhaps in the wheat
deal, Watergate bugging affair, and the alloged ties of the Nixon
Administration to big business. but he is in some real trouble on the
two pivotal issues of Vietnam and the economy. The latter two, up to
now, have been close to the gut issues of the campaign.
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-N.Y. News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, October 2nd, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The heart of Sen. George McGovern's bid for the White House in
the next five weeks rests on the proposition of whether he can turn
around the 55-28 percent majority view that "he doesn't inspire
confidence as a President should.'
There are some signs that the Democratic nominee's almost four-
month long slide in the polls may have ended. (He gained six points
in the Harris Survey reported last week.) But to come close to
winning on November 7th McGovern clearly must find a way to build the
faith of voters in him personally.
Here are some of the key dimensions pointing up McGovern's
problems drawn from a Harris Survey taken among 1,668 likely voters
between Sept. 19th-21st:
By 59-22 percent, a sizable majority of the voters agree with
the charge against the South Dakota Senator that "he seems to be
making too many mistakes that raise doubts about his judgment." This
did not shift much during his first three weeks of campaigning in
September, since voters agreed with the same statement by 60-24
percent at the beginning of the month.
A cloud still hangs over Sen. McGovern as a result of the
Eagleton affair. When asked to comment on the statement that "he
handled the dropping of Senator Eagleton as his vice presidential
running mate with good judgment and good taste,' voters express
disagreement by 48-32 percent.
Buttressing this reaction is the 52-30 percent who agree the
Senator McGovern "seems indecisive and unable to make up his mind. "
As Sen. McGovern has mounted stronger attacks on President
Nixon, reaction of voters to the Senator personally has grown more
unfavorable. On the key dimension of having a "sincere, appealing
personality, II back in May when he was making his dramatic rise to
capture. the Democratic nomination, voters reacted positively to the
McGovern personality, 46-26 percent. This slipped to 42-34 percent
positive after the debates with Sen. Humphrey in the California
primary, then held at a narrow 43-39 percent positive after the
Eagleton episode. But by early September, as McGovern attacks on
his GOP opponents mounted, reaction to the Senator reversed to 48-37
percent negative. In late September, this negative set still held at
46-35.
As a consequence of these feelings about McGovern's being
"mistake-prone, " "lacking in good judgment," and not appealing as a
"sincere personality, 11 a majority of the voters, 51-32 percent, agree
with the statement that "he just leaves me flat and seems incapable of
inspiring the best in America. 11
The net impact of this failure of Senator McGovern to engender a
sense of personal confidence has been the single most important reasor
for his running so far behind President Nixon in the early polls. To
measure the full degree of doubts voters have expressed about the
Senator, the Harris Survey has periodically asked:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator McGovern does not
inspire confidence as a President should?"
(more)
TREND ON CONFIDENCE IN McGOVERN
Not Inspire
Does
Not
Confidence
Inspire
Sure
&
Po
%
Mid-Sept.
55
28
17
Early Sept.
58
29
13
Aug.
47
37
16
July
44
35
21
June
39
38
23
May
33
36
31
Precisely the same question has been asked about Richard Nixon
since August of 1971. Here is the trend on the same question:
TREND ON CONFIDENCE IN NIXON
Not Inspire
Does
Not
Confidence
Inspire
Sure
To
to
&
Sept , '72
33
59
8
July
40
53
7
April
49
40
11
Feb.
49
40
11
Aug. , '71
50
40
10
There is little doubt that the disparity between President Nixon
and Sen. McGovern on this key dimension of confidence was an importan
input into the 28-point lead enjoyed by Nixon in mid-September in
preferential tests.
The next five weeks will see both sides, in personal appearances
in the media, trying to build the credibility of their man and to den
the reservoir of trust of the opposition candidate.
(more)
Despite the problems Mr. Nixon has had in the past in his abilit
to arouse personal confidence and those Sen. NcGovern has had in the
more recent past, both men are viewed as having a rather high sense O.
personal integrity: Sen. McGovern by a 44-27 percent margin and
President Nixon by 76-13 percent.
The central issue of confidence is not likely to be resolved eitl
on the matter of integrity or personal charisma. Neither man in 1972
viewed by voters as a magnetic personality. Rather, the focus will
come down hard on voter confidence in each's ability to lead the coun
And, on this score, Senator McGovern has much ground to make up in th.
remaining weeks.
(Editor's Note: This is the first of two Harris Surveys reporting in
depth on public reaction to Sen. McGovern as of mid-September. )
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Tuesday AM, October 3rd, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although 66 percent of the voters give Sen. McGovern credit
for having "the courage to say what he thinks, even if it is unpopular
by 55-27 percent a majority also think "he wants to change things too
much" and, by 54-26 percent, that "he has too extreme liberal views. 11
Thus, in addition to having a problem in inspiring confidenc
in his ability to lead the country as President, as reported yesterday
Sen. McGovern also has run into some sharp voter disagreement with
positions he has taken on key issues in the campaign.
On the issue side, however, the Democratic standard-bearer
has some promising ground to plow:
By 53-15 percent, voters give their endorsement to
McGovern efforts to "expose the profits that were made by dealers in
the grain deal recently made by the Nixon Administration with the
Russians. " Significantly, an even higher 55 percent of midwestern
voters, located in or near the wheat belt, agree with McGovern
criticisms on the wheat deal.
- By 54-20 percent, they also are sympathetic with McGover
position against "the close ties between big business contributors to
the Republicans and the favors given them by the Nixon Administration.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) -- October 3, 1972
- 2
By 51-23 percent, they feel McGovern "is right to emphas
the involvement of Nixon aides in the attempt to put listening devices
in his and Democratic headquarters. 11
Thus, on the wheat deal, GOP ties with big business, and the
Watergate affair, the Senator from South Dakota appears to have some
effective campaign material which might win him some votes in the heav
going of the next five weeks.
By the same token, there is another whole roster of issues O.
which McGovern is in some real trouble:
--- By 54-21 percent, voters agree with the criticism that
"he was wrong to say that after 90 days in the White House he would
abolish all wage and price controls. 11 Though he has tempered some of
:
statements on controls to state that he would favor a system of guidel
the impression prevails that McGovern favors a slackening of controls
at a time when voters want tougher enforcement of wage and price contr
- By 56-20 percent, voters feel that Sen. McGovern's
"program for redistributing the wealth is too radical. 11 Again, the
Democratic standard-bearer in August modified many of his more extreme
ideas of June. But the stamp on McGovern in this campaign is that
somehow he is beyond the limits of tolerance on income redistribution.
McGovern does better on the score of being known as a
"fighter for tax reform and help for the working man," a statement
agreed to by a 43-33 percent margin. However, he is losing ground as
the campaign progresses on this appeal, for it was running 49-27 percer
in his favor on the tax reform issue in early August.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - October 3, 1972
- 3
Much of the initial McGovern appeal on the Vietnam
issue has now been dissipated, as the following table shows,
Periodically, the Harris Survey has asked this question, most recentl
among 1,668 likely voters between Sept. 19-21:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator McGovern deserves a lo
of credit for being against the Vietnam war before others were?"
McGOVERN CREDIT FOR BEING AGAINST THE WAR
Deserves
Not
Not
Credit
Deserve
Sure
%
%
%
Mid-Sept.
39
41
20
Early Sept.
42
41
17
Aug.
51
34
15
July
50
31
19
June
50
29
21
May
54
21
25
March
41
19
40
Sen. McGovern's support for "being right" in opposing the
war has obviously eroded, mainly as the result of some of the
statements he has made on Vietnam. One of these, for example, on
which he has run into heavy criticism was his promise that "if electe
President he would go to Hanoi and beg for the release of U.S.
prisoners of war, 11 negatively received by a 48-33 percent margin.
As a result of many of these stands, Sen. McGovern has now
inherited the mantle of "having too extreme liberal views, 11 an
estimate held by a 54-26 percent count. The latest reading on this
dimension is a bit down from the 57-25 percent majority who believed
it in early September, but is still sharply up from the 31 percent who
gave the charge credence in May.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - October 3, 1972
- 4 ---
The net impact of these position troubles for Sen. NoGovern
is that much of the thrust has gone out of his initially powerful appea
as a candidate for change in this election. For example, in early June
by a narrow 38-34 percent margin, a plurality of voters felt "he stood
for the right kind of change. II But now, by 44-33 percent, voters have
turned around and deny his change is the "right kind. To the contrary
by 55-27 percent, a majority think McGovern wants to "change things too
much,' down some from the 59-28 percent division who felt this way in
early September, but still a dramatic turnaround from the 38-36 percent
plurality who denied the claim back in May.
Sen. McCovern has some fertile ground perhaps in the wheat
deal, Watergate bugging affair, and the alleged ties of the Nixon
Administration to big business. but he is in some real trouble on the
two pivotal issues of Vietnam and the economy. The latter two, up to
now, have been close to the gut issues of the campaign.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-N.Y. News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 Last 42nd Street, New York, N. Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Immediate Release
by Louis Harris
For the first time since May, Richard Nixon's lead over George McGovern
has narrowed rather than widened in the latest Harris Survey conducted between
September 19-21. However, the Nixon margin is still a substantial 28 points, 59-31
percent, compared with the 34-point edge he held in early September.
Here is the trend in the Nixon-McGovern race in response to this basic
question asked periodically, this time among 1,668 likely voters:
"This November for President it will bc between Richard Nixon for the Republicans and
Senator George McGovern for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, whom would
you be for?"
NIXON-McGOVERN TREND
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
Mid-Sept.
59
31
10
Early Sept.
63
29
8
Aug.
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
June
54
38
8
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
Mar.
59
32
9
The most significant shift in the vote between early and mid-September can
be found among young voters under 30 years of age. Mr. Nixon is now ahead of Scn.
McGovern by only 47-45 percent among the young, compared with a 52-42 percent advantage
three weeks ago.
At the same time, President Nixon still holds a substantial lead among union
members, 55-34 percent, and among Catholic voters, 58-31 percent. Both groups have been
traditional centers of Democratic party support in past presidential elections. Even
the Jewish vote, which traditionally has gone 5-1. Democratic, has averaged out over the
past four surveys to no better than 46-41 percent for McCovern.
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) -- (September 22, 1972)
-2--
McGovern's basic handicap in this election continues to be among that 52
percent of the voters who consider themselves Democrats. Here is the trend among
Democratic voters since May:
TREND AMONG DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
Mid-Sept.
41
48
11
Early Sept.
43
47
10
Aug.
38
53
9
July
36
53
11
June
36
55
9
May
29
59
12
Although the McGovern lead among Democrats went from a low of four points
earlier in September to seven points in this latest Harris Survey, he is far off the
mark of what a Democratic candidate must receive from his own party base in order to
make the election close. In 1968, for example, when a relatively high 14 percent of
all Democrats defected to the third-party candidacy of George Wallace and an additional
16 percent went for Richard Nixon, Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey nonetheless was
able to win 70 percent of his own party members. At the moment, McGovern is running
22 points off the percentage of Democrats won by Humphrey four years ago.
Reaction to this latest Harris Survey could go in two opposite directions:
(1) that the six-point decline in the Nixon lead is a signal that McGovern has now
turned the corner and the election will proceed to become much closer, or (2) that with
a 28-point bulge in his favor, Richard Nixon has an insurmountable lead. Neither
interpretation is warranted from these results.
In all probability, if the election were held last Friday, the day after the
polling ended, the Harris Survey division of 59-31 percent could well be overstating
the Nixon margin for these reasons:
- The undecided vote is running higher than usual at this stage of a presidential
election, a sign of much flux and even instability among the voters.
--- September 14, 1972
-3-.
-- When the 10 percent of the likely voters who are undecided are analyzed,
they are 4-1 Democratic in their party affiliation. They also tend to be less critical
of McGovern and more hostile to the President than the voters as a whole. If McGovern
were to capture 80 percent of this undecided vote, the outcome then would be 61-39
percent -- a lead six points lower than the one Mr. Nixon now enjoys. Such a result
would roughly approximate the size of Lyndon Johnson's win over Barry Goldwater in 1964.
- The electorate has indicated a desire to vote- Democratic for Congress in
1972. This underlying anchor point of inclinations to vote Democratic in other elections
being held this year not only could make Richard Nixon's coattails quite short this
November, but could actually cost him some votes in the presidential race.
-- President Nixon has recently gained in personal popularity and confidence
among voters during the same period that Sen. McGovern has slipped in public confidence.
Nonetheless, Mr. Nixon's own confidence rating is no better than 51-39 percent positive,
a 12-point margin, in contrast to his overall 28-point lead, Tf, in the remaining weeks
of the election voters focus primarily on Richard Nixon personally rather than George
McGovern, as has been the case for some time now, it is possible for the Nixon current
margin to shrink.
-- Finally, the reverse of a bandwagon effect, an underdog effect, could take
place in reaction to the polls. The Harris Survey has encountered the phenomenon in
past electionsof an early front runner's lead slipping sharply at the end because voters
feel it is not right for him to win by such a large margin. This could have an impact
this time if some voters who might actually prefer the President to McGovern, nonetheless
end up voting for the Senator simply because they do not feel that Mr. Nixon deserves to
win in a landslide.
Despite all of these influences which might narrow the Nixon lead, the fact
remains that he is still 59-31 percent ahead with Election Day six weeks away. That is
a massive margin measured by any standards.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 Fast 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, September 18th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although President Nixon has been leading Sen. McGovern by a substantial margir
in the Harris Survey, Democrats are ahead in nationwide races for Congress, 46-41 percent
At the comparable stage of the 1968 campaign, Democratic candidates for Congress held
a 49-40 percent lead. Except for the Midwest, where the GOP holds a 5-point lead,
Democrats running for House seats in other parts of the country average out 9 to 13
points ahead of their Republican opponents.
While both the contests for the White House and for control of Congress can
change considerably in the seven remaining weeks of the campaign, voters at this moment
are expressing intentions to split their tickets this fall more than at any time in our
political history. The total spread between party votes for President and party votes
for Congress now runs a full 39 percentage points nationwide and even higher among
specific blocs of voters.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - September 18th, 1972
- 2 -
Between August 30th and September 1st, a cress section of 1,640 likely voters
was asked:
"If the election were being held today and you had to decide right now, in this
Congressional District, would you vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for
Congress?"
VOTE FOR CONGRESS
Congress:
Pres
Spread
Den
Rep
Nix. McC.
Nationwide
46
41
63
29
39
By Region
East
49
36
60
34
39
Midwest
43
48
64
29
30
South
47
38
70
19
60
West
50
39
58
34
35
By Age
18-29
53
32
52
42
31
30-49
45
41
68
25
47
50 and over
45
46
65
26
38
By Party
Republican
10
80
93
5
18
Democratic
74
17
43
47
53
Independent
33
47
68
22
32
By Religion
WASP
37
51
74
20
40
Catholic
49
35
62
27
49
Jewish
72
24
47
44
51
By Union Members
58
32
56
34
48
By Income
Under $5,000
48
38
56
36
30
$5,000-9,999
52
36
58
32
42
$10,000-14,999
42
45
70
23
44
$15,000 and ower
43
45
71
24
45
By Education
Under 8th grade
53
38
56
36
35
High school
45
41
66
26
44
College
46
41
63
31
37
HARRIS SURJEY - September 13, 1972
-- 3 -
A number of key implications emerge from these results:
---- It is highly unlikely that such a wide disparity will finally take place
in the actual balloting on November 7th, for it is much easier for people to indicate
a desire to split their tickets in a public opinion survey than to do it in fact in the
voting booth. This might normally be viewed as an advantage for the Republicans, since
the Presidential line will be at the head of the ballot in each state.
However, some of the groups who express the most sizable desire to split
their tickets are from the most articulate segments of the electorate: voters under 30,
the college-educated, those with incomes of $15,000 and over, and Jewish voters.
These groups might very well take the time and trouble to split tickets on Election Day.
---------- Union members and those who are Catholic are among the most prolific
intended ticket-splitters. Their early defections in this election from the Democratic
line for President have been taken by some political analysts to indicate that a major
realignment of parties is about to take place in this country. It is entirely possible,
on the other hand, that the Democratic ties they show on the Congressional line might
well temper their potential defections to the Republicans at the head of the ticket.
----- The Democratic showing in the East and the West is rougly similiar to the
vote the Democrats cast in the off-year elections of 1970 for Congress, when they
retained control of the House and Senate. However, the Republican vote in the South is
well above previous years' showings and could presage gains there for the COP. In the
Midwest, the Republicans generally do better than in other regions for Congress, but they
still might score some gains there.
HARRIS SURVEY - September 18th, 1972
- 4 -
---- These results indicate that, at least early in the compaign, President Nixon'
coattails can be helpful CO other Republicans running this fall, but might not be
sufficient to change the longstanding Democratic rule in the House of Representatives.
In Inct, if Mr. Nixon, were to press his luck and go all out to ask. for a Republican
Congress to be elected with him, the Democratic undertow that is evident might cost him
votes rather than win votes for Republican candidates running with him.
--- These results point up the fact that the electorate in 1972 is in a highly
volatile state of mind, as indeed it has been all year long. When as many as one in four
voters is prepared to switch his vote between the Presidential and Congressional lines
on the same ballot, it means that selectivity rather than down-the-line uniformity is
likely to be the rule in this year's election.
------- Intended ticket-splitting is lowest among Republicans and independents.
The present inclination of independento to vote = straight COP ticket in this election
could cast some previously relatively safe Democratic seats into the doubtful column.
From these initial results, it is evident that pro-Democratic tugs are still
strong on enrolled Democrats, at least as far as the Congressional elections are
concerned. And, if voter attention becomes focused on the Congressional balloting, it
could have a significant impact on President Nixon's early lead in head-to-head
pairings against Senator McGovern.
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, Sept. 14th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
President Nixon has widened his lead over Senator George McGovern to a
margin of 34 points, winning the latest Harris Survey trial heat by 63-29 percent.
Last month, Mr. Nixon held a 57-34 percent edge, a 23 point spread. Thus, the Nixon
margin has risen 9 full points in the past month.
At the same time, when asked if they thought President Nixon "deserved to
win reelection by a landslide", a plurality of voters agreed by only 40-46 percent.
As the formal campaign got underway the President had registered his major
gains in the Midwest and South, in smaller towns, among women, Democrats, union members
and Catholics. Significantly, the Nixon total among Democrats has now risen to 43
percent, up from 29 percent in May, and the GOP nominee trails McGovern among Democrats
by only 47-43 percent, a four point margin.
In the latest Harris Survey, conducted between August 30th and September 1st,
a cross-section of 1640 likely voters 18 years of age and over was asked:
"This November for President it will be between Richard Nixon for the Republicans and
Senator George McGovern for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, who would
you be for?"
Total
Voters
%
Nixon
59
McGovern
25
Not Sure
16
Then the 16 percent "not sure" vote was asked:
"If' you had to say, would you lean toward Nixon, the Republican, or McGovern, the
Democrat?"
LEANER ANALYSIS
Total
"Not
Sure"
%
Nixon
4
McGovern
4
Still not sure
8
When the committed and leaners are added together, President Nixon emerges with
his 63-29 percent lead. Here is the trend in the Nixon-McGovern standings:
NIXON-McGOVERN TREND
Nix-
McGov-
Not
on
ern
Sure
%
%
%
Sept.
63
29
8
Aug.
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
Mar.
59
32
9
In the latest results, Senator McGovern now trails President Nixon by the
most sizable margin since the Harris Survey first pitted the two men against each other
in two-way pairings last March. However, between March and May, McGovern reduced a 27
point deficit to 7 points. The 34 point Nixon lead is larger than the Harris Survey
recorded at a comparable period in the Johnson-Goldwater race of 1964, which the Demo-
cratic incumbent finally won by a 29 percentage point margin.
Here are some key dimensions of this latest Nixon-McGovern trial heat:
- Contrary to expectations, President Nixon continues to lead Sen. McGovern
among voters under 30 by a 10 point margin, 52-42 percent, identical to the results in
early August. However, there is a sharp difference between new voters, aged 18-24.
who show a 47-47 percent standoff, and voters 25-29 who favor Mr. Nixon by 59-34
percent. On an age basis, the contest for the White House is still closest among
young voters.
The President's margin has been soaring among voters with incomes of
$10, 000 and over, a substantial 45 percent of the electorate. Back in May, Mr. Nixon
led among voters in the $10, 000-15, 000 bracket by 51-39 percent, but now is ahead by
70-23 percent. With the $15,000 and over group, in May the Nixon lead was a narrow
49-43 percent, but has risen to 71-24 percent.
Consistently, Richard Nixon has been weaker among women than among men,
but now the two sexes are giving the incumbent President an identical 63-29 percent
lead. His gains among women have been dramatic, with his coming from only a 47-42
percent lead in May to a full 34 points in the latest survey.
The heartland of Nixon strength in 1972 was supposed to be found in the
South and in the Midwest. Yet in early August, the President was ahead by a wider
margin in the East than the Midwest. But in the past month, the Nixon lead in the
Midwest has jumped to 64-29 percent, a vast change from the narrow 46-43 percent edge he
showed just last May. In the South, Mr. Nixon is ahead by 70-19 percent.
The trade union vote has now gone to a rather decisive 56-34 percent
Nixon lead, a margin of 22 points. This is a direct reversal of the 1968 pattern,
when Humphrey won among union members by 53-32 percent, a Democratic edge of 21 points.
Among Catholic voters, the President has moved out to a commanding 62-27
percent margin. This is a dramatic turnaround from the standing in May, when McGovern
held a slim 46-44 percent lead.
( more )
MARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - September 14th, 1972
- 4
Despite the current wide Nixon lead, by only 46-40 percent, a plurality of
the likely voters think the President "deserved to win by a landslide margin." The cros:
section was asked:
"Do you feel that President Nixon deserves or not to win reelection by a landslide vote?'
DOES NIXON DESERVE TO WIN
IN A LANDSLIDE?
Deserves
Doesn't
Not
To Win
Deserve
Sure
%
%
%
Total Likely Voters
46
40
14
Live in West
40
51
9
Democrats
35
50
15
18-29 age
40
47
13
Union members
39
46
15
A minimum of four voters in 10 are not happy with the prospect of a Nixon
sweep. Especially unhappy about that prospect are voters who live in the West, union
members, young people, and those who are traditional Democrats. If McGovern is to
reverse the heavy tide against him, it is among these groups where he might find the most
receptive segments of the electorate.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, September 7th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The number of persons who feel familiar with Sen. George McGovern's
political stands has risen from 49 to 81 percent since last April, but at the same
time the number who think he has "too extreme liberal views" has jumped from 29 percent
in April to 55 percent in August. A comparable 55 percent of the voters also agree
with the statement that McGovern "wants to change things too much."
It is now apparent that while the outcome of the election will depend in part
on voter assessment of the Nixon record in office, Sen. McGovern's political philosophy
has become a central pivot of controversy as well.
Harris Survey results to date point to the following conclusions concerning
Sen. McGovern's standing with the voters:
The Eagleton affair is not the root of McGovern's early troubles in this
campaign. At worst, the public believes that the South Dakota Senator was the
unwitting victim of a series of unfortunate events concerning the Vice Presidency he
could not foresee. Even though a majority of 51 percent agree that he was right
ultimately to drop Eagleton, in retrospect 59 percent also agree the Eagleton choice
appeared to be a good one at the time it was made.
Rather, McGovern's problems stem in large part from his original
formulation of his welfare program, which came under sharp attack during the latter
stages of the California primary. By a thumping 73-15 percent, voters reject the
proposal "to give each individual in the population $1,000" by "sharply increasing
taxes on people with incomes of $12,000 and over." Significantly, even 55 percent
of those who now plan to vote for McGovern say they are opposed to his original plan
to scrap the welfare system. A substantial 59 percent of the entire electorate agree
with the charge that "his program for redistributing the wealth Is too radical
( more )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - September 7th, 1972
- 2
--- Although by 76-21 percent the country overwhelmingly wants to
"bring home all U.S. troops, naval, and air forces from Vietnam," by the same token
an equally overwhelming 74-19 percent of the voters also do not think that McGovern
would be able to fulfill his pledge to "have all U.S. troops and prisoners of war
out of Vietnam three months after he is in the White House." Even his own supporters
:
doubt his ability to accomplish this objective, by 52-36 percent.
By 49-36 percent, voters also agree with the statement that McCovern was
"wrong to say he would go to Hanoi to beg for release of U.S. prisoners of war."
The net result is that when voters are asked whether his stands on Vietnam
make them feel "more" or "less" like voting for Sen. McGovern, the verdict is
44-19 percent negative, with large numbers of them up in the air.
----- The net impact of the early MCGovern positions on welfare, income
redistribution, and prisoners of war is that; by 47-37 percent, a plurality of the
voters agree with the charge that "he does not inspire confidence as a President
should." With this loss of credibility, McGovern's criticisms of President Nixon
inevitably lose some of the bite they might otherwise have.
Earlier this month, after McGovern had dropped Eagleton from the ticket,
a cross section of 1,635 voters was asked:
`(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - September 7th, 1972
-- 3
"Now I'd like to read you some statements some people have made about Sen. George
McGovern of South Dakota. For each, tell me if you tend to agree or disagree."
(READ STATEMENTS)
STATEMENTS ABOUT McGOVERN
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
Positive
%
%
%
Has courage to say what he thinks even if unpopular
69
18
13
Deserves lot of credit for giving many young people
faith in political system
58
24
18
Deserves credit for being against Vietnam before
others
51
34
15
Fighter for tax reform and wants to help working man
49
27
24
Sincere, appealing personality
43
39
18
Stands for right kind of change in country
35
44
21
Negative
Program for redistributing wealth too radical
59
18
23
Has too extreme liberal views
55
26
19
Wants to change things too much
55
30
15
Wrong to say he would beg for release of POW's
in Hanoi
49
36
15
Does not inspire confidence as President should
47
37
16
Has a flat, uninteresting personality
35
48
17
These results indicate that McGovern is not without appeal for speaking out
on unpopular issues, involving the young in politics, opposing the Vietnam var before
other politicians and advocating the reform of tax loopholes. Had McGovern stayed within
the bounds of the elements going for him he might have been much closer in the poll
standings today than he is. His problems appear to stem from seemingly going beyond
the pale on eliminating welfare with income redistribution and promising flatly to bring
all U.S. forces and POW's home from Vietnam three months after assuming office.
On welfare and income redistribution, the cross section of likely voters
was asked:
"Senator McGovern has proposed to eliminate the present welfare system and instead
to give each individual in the population $1,000. He would pay for this plan by
sharply increasing taxes on people with incomes of $12,000 and over, as well as on
corporations. Do you favor or oppose this substitute for the welfare system proposed
by Senator McGovern?"
McGOVERN WELFARE REFORM PROGRAM
Total Voters
McGovern Voters
%
%
Favor
15
27
Oppose
73
55
Not sure
12
18
(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - September 7th, 1972
- 4 -
On the promise to bring home all Americans from Vietnam, the cross section
was asked:
"Senator McGovern has said that three months after he went into the White House as
President he would have all U.S. troops and prisoners of war home. Do you think
he would be able to do that or not?"
McGOVERN PLAN TO BRING TROOPS AND POW'S HOME
Total Voters
McGovern Voters
%
%
Would be able
19
36
Not be able
74
52
Not sure
7
12
These stands, much more than the Eagleton affair, have put the stigma of
"extremist" on Sen. McGovern --- a handicap he must now seek to overcome if he is to
get back into this election.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
Chicago Tribung-Now York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 Cast 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, August 31st, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
One of the original hopes of the McGovern campaign -- that the bulk of
"alienated" voters in the country would go decisively for the South Dakota Senator
in November -- thus tar simply is not taking place. With the withdrawal of Gov.
George Wallace of Alabama from the race, President Nixon now holds a 46-43 percent
lead among voters identified on the Harris alienation index.
Had Wallace remained in the race, the protest vote would have divided
55-38 percent against Mr. Nixon. Not only has the Wallace vote gone over to Nixon
over-all, but those particularly disaffected with the way things are going in the
country these days favor the President nearly two to one.
Faced with their ideological disagreements with Sen. McGovern on the
one hand, and their alienation from the Establishment on the other, most former
Wallace backers are now inclined to swallow their disenchantment with the status
quo and cast their ballots for President Nixon.
However, it should be pointed out that these results are based on polling
which took place early in August when Sen. McCovern reached a low point just after
dropping Sen. Engleton from his ticket. What is more, a substantial 30 percent of
the former Wallace voters were still undecided, most of whom would fall into the
"alienated" category. So it is still possible that McGovern might win as many as
half of the alienated who originally preferred Wallace.
(mere)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPTHION AUNTYSTS -- August 31, 1972
- 2
The Harris Allenation Indox, devised back in 1966, is made up of five items
on which people have been questioned periodically. In a Harris Survey early in August,
a cross section of 1,630 potential voters were asked:
"I want to read off to you a number of things some people have told us they
have felt from time to time. Do you tend to feel (READ LIST) or not?"
EXTENT OF ALLENATION
Don't
Not
Feel
Feel
Sure
%
%
%
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer
64
33
3
What you think doesn't count very much
51
45
4
The people running the country don't really
care what happens to you
43
52
5
People who have the power are out to take
advantage of you
39
53
8
Left out of things around you
24
73
3
Taken together on the Alienation Index, some 47 percent of the voters report
they feel alienated in 1972. If Gov. Wallace were still in the race, here is how the
vote would have divided on each item in the Alienation Index:
IMPACT OF ALIENATION
WITH WALLACE IN RACE
Would Vote For:
Not
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Sure
%
%
%
%
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer
44
36
15
5
What you think doesn't count very much
40
37
16
7
The people running the country don't really
care what happens to you
35
40
17
8
People who have the power are out to take
advanta,e of you
36
39
17
8
Left out of things around you
37
41
16
6
Average division of vote:
38
39
16
7
(more)
MARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - August 31, 1972
- 3 -
If the McGoveru and Wallace vote were combined, then by 55-38 percent the
validated in the country would be voting against Richard Nixon this November.
However, in a two-way contest, the alienated split quite differently than
the McGovern people had hoped:
IMPACT OF ALIENATION
IN TWO-WAY RACE
Would Vote For:
Not
Nixon
McGovern
Sure
%
%
%
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer
51
39
10
What you think doesn't count very much
48
40
12
The people running the country don't really
care what happens to you
42
44
14
People who have the pewer are out to take
advantage of you
45
43
12
Left OUL of Unings around you
43
to
11
Average division of vote:
46
43
11
Clearly, the aversion of alienated Wallace voters for McGovern's political
stance means more to them at this stage of the campaign than their disenchantment with
the power structure headed by President Nixon.
When the key groups where alienation runs highest are analyzed, a mixed
political roster emerges:
MOST ALIENATED GROUPS
Feel Alienated
%
Total Veters
47
--
Blacks
71
8th grade educated
56
Under $5,000 $5, income
54
Big cities
54
Union members
53
Democrats
52
18-20 year old:
50
HARRIS IBBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - August 31, 19/2
- 4
At the movent, NeGovern is drawing heavily among the alienated only from
blacks and the under-30 voters. A major question of the campaign is whether the
McGovern style and rhetoric will appeal to the least-well-educated, the poor, union
members, and big-city voters -- who make up much of the traditional Democratic vote.
In the spring primaries, this so-called "gut" vote is precisely where
George Wallace, rather than George McGovern, found his greatest appeal. The theory
that Sen. McGovern might also be the beneficiary in November of similar protest in
the grassroots remains to be documented.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 by Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
1972
HARRIS SURVEYS
"In the election this November for President it will be between
Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator George McGovern for
the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, whom would you
vote for -- Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
MAY
bno
9-10
10-15
2-3
10-15
12
M
N.S
Nationwide
48
54
55
57
41
38
35
34
11
8
10
9
East
42
51
53
58
47
42
37
33
11
7
10
9
Midwest
46
54
54
53
43
39
36
36
11
7
10
11
South
59
61
62
65
30
27
27
27
11
12
11
8
West
47
49
45
55
44
45
45
39
9
6
10
6
Deep South
57
-
62
68
34
-
27
26
9
-
11
6
Border States
62
-
60
62
24
-
23
29
14
-
17
9
Cities
38
44
45
50
49
49
45
42
13
7
10
CO
Suburbs
48
58
57
57
41
38
33
33
11
9
10
10
Towns
53
61
65
62
36
32
26
31
11
7
9
7
Rural
57
59
57
62
36
33
31
28
7
8
12
10
18-29 yrs
46
41
46
53
48
55
46
43
6
4
8
4
30-49 yrs
47
58
56
58
44
34
34
34
9
8
10
8
50+
51
59
59
59
34
30
29
28
15
11
12
13
8th grade
46
51
49
52
37
37
34
36
17
12
17
12
High School
47
56
54
58
41
35
35
31
12
9
11
11
College
50
53
58
58
43
42
36
37
7
5
6
5
Men
49
53
57
58
41
39
33
33
10
8
10
9
Women
47
54
52
56
42
38
37
35
11
8
11
9
Black
21
27
24
16
62
74
64
77
17
4
12
7
White
51
57
59
62
39
35
31
29
10
8
10
9
Under $5,000
48
40
44
52
39
51
40
39
13
9
16
9
$ 5,000- 9,999
51
57
54
55
39
37
37
35
10
6
9
10
$10,000-14,999
51
54
60
58
39
38
32
31
10
8
8
11
$15,000 +
49
64
65
65
43
29
29
30
8
7
6
5
Union Members
35
46
50
49
53
44
39
40
12
10
11
11
Republican
82
86
87
87
14
11
10
10
4
3
3
3
Democrat
29
36
36
38
59
55
53
53
12
9
11
9
Independent
43
54
54
60
42
37
34
25
15
9
12
15
Catholic
44
54
54
55
46
40
36
33
10
6
10
12
Protestant
58
66
66
68
33
25
25
24
9
9
9
8
Jewish
39
22
31
46
51
68
58
44
10
10
11
10
1972
HARRIS SURVEYS
"In the election this November for President it will be between
Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator George McGovern for
the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, whom would you
vote for -- Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
how
JUNE 10-15
Aug.
how
1-6
9-10
2-3
51-01
N
MI
N.S
Nationwide
48
54
55
57
41
38
35
34
11
8
10
9
East
42
51
53
58
47
42
37
33
11
7
10
9
Midwest
46
54
54
53
43
39
36
36
11
7
10
11
South
59
61
62
65
30
27
27
27
11
12
11
8
West
47
49
45
55
44
45
45
39
9
6
10
6
Deep South
57
-
62
68
34
-
27
26
9
-
11
6
Border States
62
-
60
62
24
-
23
29
14
-
17
9
Cities
38
44
45
50
49
49
45
42
13
7
10
8
Suburbs
48
58
57
57
41
38
33
33
11
9
10
10
Towns
53
61
65
62
36
32
26
31
11
7
9
7
Rural
57
59
57
62
36
33
31
28
7
8
12
10
18-29 yrs
46
41
46
53
48
55
46
43
6
4
8
4
30-49 yrs
47
58
56
58
44
34
34
34
9
8
10
8
50+
51
59
59
59
34
30
29
28
15
11
12
13
8th grade
46
51
49
52
37
37
34
36
17
12
17
12
High School
47
56
54
58
41
35
35
31
12
9
11
11
College
50
53
58
58
43
42
36
37
7
5
6
5
Men
49
53
57
58
41
39
33
33
10
8
10
9
Women
47
54
52
56
42
38
37
35
11
8
11
9
Black
21
27
24
16
62
74
64
77
17
4
12
7
White
51
57
59
62
39
35
31
29
10
8
10
9
Under $5,000
48
40
44
52
39
51
40
39
13
9
16
9
$ 5,000- 9,999
51
57
54
55
39
37
37
35
10
6
9
10
$10,000-14,999
51
54
60
58
39
38
32
31
10
8
8
11
$15,000 +
49
64
65
65
43
29
29
30
8
7
6
5
Union Members
35
46
50
49
53
44
39
40
12
10
11
11
Republican
82
86
87
87
14
11
10
10
4
3
3
3
Democrat
29
36
36
38
59
55
53
53
12
9
11
9
Independent
43
54
54
60
42
37
34
25
15
9
12
15
Catholic
44
54
54
55
46
40
36
33
10
6
10
12
Protestant
58
66
66
68
33
25
25
24
9
9
9
8
Jewish
39
22
31
46
51
68
58
44
10
10
11
10
1972
HARRIS SURVEYS
Havis
"In the election this November for President it will be between
Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator George McGovern for
the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, whom would you
vote for -- Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
9-10
2-3
ST-01
zl
M
N.S
Nationwide
48
54
55
57
41
38
35
34
11
8
10
9
East
42
51
53
58
47
42
37
33
11
7
10
9
Midwest
46
54
54
53
43
39
36
36
11
7
10
11
South
59
61
62
65
30
27
27
27
11
12
11
8
West
47
49
45
55
44
45
45
39
9
6
10
6
Deep South
57
-
62
68
34
-
27
26
9
-
11
6
Border States
62
-
60
62
24
-
23
29
14
-
17
9
Cities
38
44
45
50
49
49
45
42
13
7
10
8
Suburbs
48
58
57
57
41
38
33
33
11
9
10
10
Towns
53
61
65
62
36
32
26
31
11
7
9
7
Rural
57
59
57
62
36
33
31
28
7
8
12
10
18-29 yrs
46
41
46
53
48
55
46
43
6
4
8
4
30-49 yrs
47
58
56
58
44
34
34
34
9
8
10
8
50+
51
59
59
59
34
30
29
28
15
11
12
13
8th grade
46
51
49
52
37
37
34
36
17
12
17
12
High School
47
56
54
58
41
35
35
31
12
9
11
11
College
50
53
58
58
43
42
36
37
7
5
6
5
Men
49
53
57
58
41
39
33
33
10
8
10
9
Women
47
54
52
56
42
38
37
35
11
8
11
9
Black
21
27
24
16
62
74
64
77
17
4
12
7
White
51
57
59
62
39
35
31
29
10
8
10
9
Under $5,000
48
40
44
52
39
51
40
39
13
9
16
9
$ 5,000- 9,999
51
57
54
55
39
37
37
35
10
6
9°
10
$10,000-14,999
51
54
60
58
39
38
32
31
10
8
8
11
$15,000 +
49
64
65
65
43
29
29
30
8
7
6
5
Union Members
35
46
50
49
53
44
39
40
12
10
11
11
Republican
82
86
87
87
14
11
10
10
4
3
3
3
Democrat
29
36
36
38
59
55
53
53
12
9
11
9
Independent
43
54
54
60
42
37
34
25
15
9
12
15
Catholic
44
54
54
55
46
40
36
33
10
6
10
12
Protestant
58
66
66
68
33
25
25
24
9
9
9
8
Jewish
39
22
31
46
51
68
58
44
10
10
11
10
1972
HARRIS SURVEYS
"In the election this November for President it will be between
Richard Nixon for the Republicans and Senator George McGovern for
the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, whom would you
vote for -- Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
how
JUNE
9-10
2-3
9-10
10-15
N
M
N.S
Nationwide
48
54
55
57
41
38
35
34
11
8
10
9
East
42
51
53
58
47
42
37
33
11
7
10
9
Midwest
46
54
54
53
43
39
36
36
11
7
10
11
South
59
61
62
65
30
27
27
27
11
12
11
8
West
47
49
45
55
44
45
45
39
9
6
10
6
Deep South
57
-
62
68
34
-
27
26
9
-
11
6
Border States
62
-
60
62
24
-
23
29
14
-
17
9
Cities
38
44
45
50
49
49
45
42
13
7
10
8
Suburbs
48
58
57
57
41
38
33
33
11
9
10
10
Towns
53
61
65
62
36
32
26
31
11
7
9
7
Rural
57
59
57
62
36
33
31
28
7
8
12
10
18-29 yrs
46
41
46
53
48
55
46
43
6
4
8
4
30-49 yrs
47
58
56
58
44
34
34
34
9
8
10
8
50+
51
59
59
59
34
30
29
28
15
11
12
13
8th grade
46
51
49
52
37
37
34
36
17
12
17
12
High School
47
56
54
58
41
35
35
31
12
9
11
11
College
50
53
58
58
43
42
36
37
7
5
6
5
Men
49
53
57
58
41
39
33
33
10
8
10
9
Women
47
54
52
56
42
38
37
35
11
8
11
9
Black
21
27
24
16
62
74
64
77
17
4
12
7
White
51
57
59
62
39
35
31
29
10
8
10
9
Under $5,000
48
40
44
52
39
51
40
39
13
9
16
9
$ 5,000- 9,999
51
57
54
55
39
37
37
35
10
6
9
10
$10,000-14,999
51
54
60
58
39
38
32
31
10
8
8
11
$15,000 +
49
64
65
65
43
29
29
30
8
7
6
5
Union Members
35
46
50
49
53
44
39
40
12
10
11
11
Republican
82
86
87
87
14
11
10
10
4
3
3
3
Democrat
29
36
36
38
59
55
53
53
12
9
11
9
Independent
43
54
54
60
42
37
34
25
15
9
12
15
Catholic
44
54
54
55
46
40
36
33
10
6
10
12
Protestant
58
66
66
68
33
25
25
24
9
9
9
8
Jewish
39
22
31
46
51
68
58
44
10
10
11
10
HARRIS SURVEYS
Nixon McGovern Demographic Study
May 9-10, 1972
June 10-15, 1972
July 1-6, 1972
August 2-3, 1972
PAGE 1
Nixon McGovern Trial Heats: 1972
August
July
June
May
April
March
PAGE 2
HARRIS SURVEY
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
Nixon
McGovern Not Suro
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
Nixon
McGovern Not Sure
(May 9-10, 1972)
(June 10-15, 1972)
(July 1-6, 1972)
(August 2-3, 1972)
(1385 likely voters)
(1401 likely voters)
(1901 likely voters)
(1630 likely votors)
57
34
Nationvide
48
41
11
54
38
8
55
10
9
35
58
33
Dest
42
47
11
51
42
7
53
37
10
9
53
36
11
Midwest
46
43
11
54
39
7
54
36
10
65
27
8
South
59
30
11
61
27
12
62
27
11
55
39
6
West
47
44
9
49
45
6
45
45
10
68
26
6
Deep South
57
34
9
-
-
62
27
11
-
62
29
9
Border States
62
24
14
-
-
1
60
23
17
50
42
8
Cities
38
49
13
44
49
7
45
45
10
57
33
10
Suburbs
48
41
11
58
38
9
57
33
10
62
31
7
Towns
53
36
11
61
32
7
65
26
9
62
28
10
Rural
57
36
\
7
59
33
S
57
31
12
53
43
No
18-29
46
48
6
41
55
4
46
46
8
58
34
8
30-49
47
44
9
58
34
8
56
34
10
59
28
13
504
51
34
15
59
30
11
59
29
12
52
36
12
8th grade
46
37
17
51
37
12
49
34
17
58
31
11
Digh school
47
41
12
56
35
9
54
35
11
58
37
5
College
50
43
7
53
42
5
58
36
6
58
33
9
Men
49
41
10
53
39
8
57
33
10
56
35
9
Women
47
42
11
54
38
CO
52
37
11
16
77
7
Black
21
62
17
27
74
4
24
64
12
62
29
9
White
51
39
10
57
35
S
59
31
10
52
39
9
Under $5, 000
48
39
13
40
51
9
44
40
16
55
35
10
$5, 000 9, 999
51
39
10
57
37
6
54
37
9
58
31
11
10, 000-14, 999
51
39
10
54
38
8
60
32
8
65
30
01
$15, 000
49
43
8
64
29
7
65
29
6
49
40
11
Union Members
35
53
12
46
44
10
50
39
11
87
10
3
Republican
82
.14
4
86
11
3
87
10
3
38
53
9
Democrat
29
59
12
36
55
9
36
53
11
60
25
15
independent
43
42
15
54
37
9
54
34
12
55
33
12
Cathillic
44
46
10
54
40
6
54
36
10
68
24
8
Protestant
58
33
9
66
25
9
66
25
9
46
44
10
Jonish
39
51
10
22
68
10
31
58
11
1972
HARRIS TRIAL HEATS
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
August, 1972
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
June
54
38
8
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Synlicate, Inc.
220 Bast 42nd Screet, New York, New York 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, August 14th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
When the American electorate is survayed face to face in person and in depth
on the Eagleton affair, perhaps the most important finding is that in dropping Eagleton,
Sen. McGovern took a course most pleasing to people over 50, but in rather sharp
disagreement with his potentially strongest constituency, young people under 30. While
people over 50 believe by 58-29 percent that "any man with a background of mental disorders
should disqualify himself from running for President or Vice President, young people
disagree with that point of view by 60-30 percent.
Although a majority of the public agreed with McGovern's decision by 53-37
percent, a substantial 44 percent of young people under 30 thought he should have followed
his initial course and retained Eagleton on the ticket.
An intensive, in person survey of a cross section of 1,630 voters on August 2nd
and 3rd after McGovern made his decision, reveals these key points:
-- By 59-30 percent, a majority of voters hold the view that "if the doctors
thought Sen. Eagleton was of sound mind and body, then he could run for any high office."
By 49-29 percent, a clear plurality point to the fact that "it has been six years since
Sen. Eagleton had any trouble," therefore indicating that "he has overcome his past
troubles. These two results point to a sense among the electorate that a man's past
mental problems should not be held against him.
(now)
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
-2-
-- By his actions early in in the Eagleton case, when he expressed firm confidence
in his running mate, Sen. McGovern night have caused problems for himself when he reversed
his initial inclination and dropped the Missouri Senator from the ticket. Dy 64-23 percent,
a majority hold the view that "Senator McGovern has to be admired for telling about Eagleton'
past problems before they were reported in the newspapers.' And, by 57-30 percent, Senator
McGovern build up deep respect for "showing great loyalty in standing up for Sen. Eagleton."
McGovern gave up these advantages of candor and loyalty when he finally decided to drop
Eagleton.
-- Contrary to the expectation of most political analysts, the fact that Eagleton
had received electric shock treatment did not mean that he was automaticllly ruled out
for high office by the public. By decisive 59-28 percent, a majority of the public disagreed
with the claim that "the fact that Sen. Eagleton had shock treatment disqualifies him for
high office."
Taken together, two central facts, then, begin to emerge trom the Eagleton attair:
1) That the American people did not panic upon hearing the news that Sen.
Eagleton had had previous psychiatric troubles. Apparently, a substantial segment of
public opinion feels that mental problems can be solved, much as medical difficulties can
be overcome.
2) In taking his action to drop Eagleton, McGovern gave up the gains he had
scored for being candid about the Missouri Senator's troubles, and at the same time showing
steadfast loyalty to a member of his team who was in trouble.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
-3-
Part of the reason for the relative tolerance on the part of the public for mental
troubles stems from the degree to which the American people themselves have encountered
similar problems in their own lives. For example, when the cross section of voters was
asked if they had "sometimes felt down, lonely, or depressed," a high 65 percent reported
they had felt this way, up from 54 percent five years ago. Significantly, 72 percent
of young people under 30 said they had felt down or depressed. When people were asked
if any member of their own family had received psychiatric treatment, 21 percent reported
they had. This was markedly up from 14 percent who reported a family member receiving
psychiatric attention five years ago.
Thus, a substantial segment of American public opinion had had first hand
experience with psychiatric problems and treatment, and was not prepared to write a man
off for high office simply on these grounds alone.
Of course, all of these findings must not be taken to mean that the American
people think past psychiatric troubles are an asset for a man running for high office.
This was evident when the cross section was asked:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that any man with a background of mental disorders should
disqualify himself from running for President or Vice President?"
SHOULD MENTAL DISORDERS DISQUALIFY
A CANDIDATE FOR HIGH OFFICE?
Should
Not
Should
Not
Sure
%
%
%
Total Voters
45
44
11
By Age
18-29
30
60
10
30-49
40
49
11
50 and over
58
29
13
( more )
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
- 4 -
With the young people 2 to 1 opposed to letting past mental troubles
automatically disqualify a man from high office, it is apparent that Sen. McGovern put
himself in some trouble among young people when he made his decision to drop Eagleton.
This development has been reflected in McGovern slipping from a 55-41 percent lead among
the under- 30 group in June to a 53-43 percent deficit today.
In the eyes of the public, a more salient reason for dropping Sen. Eagleton
could be found not in the mental health question, but rather the fact that the Missouri
Senator did not reveal his past troubles before he was nominated, an error of omission
condemned by a 76-18 percent margin. This was evident in this key question put to the
cross section:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator Eagleton's past mental troubles should
not have been held against him but his show of bad character in keeping this information
from Senator McGovern should have disqualified him?"
NOT MENTAL TROUBLES BUT LACK OF CANDOR
SHOULD HAVE DISQUALIFIED EAGLETON
Total Voters
%
Agree
46
Disagree
39
Not Sure
15
Thus, if Sen. Eagleton had told Sen. McGovern about his psychiatric problems
in the first place and nonetheless had been chosen, the chances are that on the mental
health issue alone, the storm that followed might have been avoided. As it is, Sen. McGover
not only has lost the momentum in these early stages of the campaign, but has created some
problems with his one best hope for ultimately achieving victory -- the new voters under
30 years of age.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribung-Now York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 Last 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS TUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, August 17th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
In the aftermath of the three hectic weeks during which the Democratic Party
went through the tortures of finally coming up with its nominee for Vice President,
the net result has surely been a serious setback for Senator George McGovern.
Here are some of the implications of the dropping of Senator Eagleton from the
ticket and the subsequent efforts to finally come up with a candidate for the second spot
who would make the run:
-- Senator McGovern now has opened his campaign for the Presidency 23 percentage
points behind President Nixon, who holds a 57-34 percent lead. At no time in recent
political history has a candidate of the Democratic Party started off trailing by such a
margin. Hubert Humphrey never was more than 12 points behind in the Harris Surveys of
1968. Senator Barry Goldwater came out of the Republican convention in 1964 behind by
roughly the same margin as McGovern today. But Coldwater never closed the gap and ended
up losing by 21 points.
---- Even more serious than the actual numbers, which likely will change, is that
McGovern has now lost the initiative he hoped to gain from his spectacular victory in his
race for the nomination. His new politics coalition, basically built around an appeal
to the young, the educated, the independents, and the black and Spanish-speaking minorities,
saw most of the steam go out of it, as he became embroiled over whether to drop his
selected nominee for Vice President. His June lead of 55-41 percent among young people
under 00 evaporated and he now trails President Nixon by 53-43 percent among the young.
Back in May, he vas only one point behind among the independent voters, 43-42 percent, but
he had dropped for behind to 60-25 among independents by early August.
( MOVE )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS -- August 17th, 1972
2
---- On the Eagleton affair directly, on the surface, the voters indicate they mean i
be omineatly fair to Strator McGovern. By 80+12 percent, a big majority say that "Senator
Engleton's problems should not be held against Sen. McGovern in the election.' Yet further
probing reveals that 33 percent of the voters feel that "Sen. McGovern's choice of
Sen. Eagleton casts real doubts about McGovern's qualifications to pick good men if he
became President, although 54 percent disagree. That one-third of all the likely voters
who are skeptical of McCovern's judgment could be a serious handicap indeed. Fully 19 percent
of the people who now plan to vote for him registered these doubts, as do 23 percent of the
under-30 vote, 31 percent of the college educated, 31 percent of the independent voters,
33 percent of the $15,000 and over income group --- all of whom form the backbone of the
McGovern new politics coalition.
Much of the edge of a potential Democratic issue in attacking Vice President
Agnew has now been taken off. The Vice President has no better than a 45-47 percent negative
job rating and has been one of the most controversial Vice Presidents in recent history.
In separate tests made among potential Democratic nominees for Vice President against
Agnew in early August, his average lead was 52-40 percent. At first glance, this would
appear to be a substantial vote of endorsement of the Vice President. However, it should
be noted that in this same poll among a cross section of 1,630 voters surveyed in. person,
conducted August 2nd and 3rd, President Nixon held a much wider 57-34 percent lead
over Senator McGovern.
There is little doubt that Agnew is the weaker half of the Republican ticket in
1972. But it will be difficult for the Democrats to make much of the Vice Presidential
issue now. For when they do, they will conjure up the fiasco of the past three weeks,
and that memory can only hurt George McGovern's chances next November 7th.
(
more
)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - August 17th, 1972
- 3
Having reported all of this, however, it is well to keep in mind that the
election is still nearly three months off, and the carly anti-McGovern trend is not
necessarily irreversible. One phenomenon which must be watched closely is the fact
that in 1972 the American people have had a tendency to look kindly on underdogs and to end
up voting for candidates whom the press establishment has written off.
In fact, there have been sure signs from other recent elections, including the
elections in Britain in 1970 that when an incumbent who is not overly popular has
appeared to be on the threshold of a decisive victory, the voters reacted by saying,
in effect, that they did not think he should win by such a wide margin. So what might
be called the Harold Wilson backlash from Britain of 1970 could well begin to set in
during this election in America in 1972.
Nonetheless. by no stretch of the imagination can it be said that the events
surrounding the Eagleton affair did anything but damage the ultimate chances of Senator
George McGovern to win the White House in November.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, August 14th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
When the American electorate is surveyed face to face in person and in depth
on the Eagleton affair, perhaps the most important finding is that in dropping Eagleton,
Sen. McGovern took a course most pleasing to people over 50, but in rather sharp
disagreement with his potentially strongest constituency, young people under 30. While
people over 50 believe by 58-29 percent that "any man with a background of mental disorders
should disqualify himself from running for President or Vice President," young people
disagree with that point of view by 60-30 percent.
Although a majority of the public agreed with McGovern's decision by 53-37
percent, a substantial 44 percent of young people under 30 thought he should have followed
his initial course and retained Eagleton on the ticket.
An intensive, in person survey of a cross section of 1,630 voters on August 2nd
and 3rd after McGovern made his decision, reveals these key points:
-- By 59-30 percent, a majority of voters hold the view that "if the doctors
thought Sen. Eagleton was of sound mind and body, then he could run for any high office."
By 49-29 percent, a clear plurality point to the fact that "it has been six years since
Sen. Eagleton had any trouble," therefore indicating that "he has overcome his past
troubles.' These two results point to a sense among the electorate that a man's past
mental problems should not be held against him.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
-2-
-- By his actions early in in the Eagleton case, when he expressed firm confidence
in his running mate, Sen. McGovern might have caused problems for himself when he reversed
his initial inclination and dropped the Missouri Senator from the ticket. By 64-23 percent,
a majority hold the view that "Senator McGovern has to be admired for telling about Eagleton's
past problems before they were reported in the newspapers." And, by 57-30 percent, Senator
McGovern build "up deep respect for "showing great loyalty in standing up for Sen. Eagleton.'
McGovern gave up these advantages of candor and loyalty when he finally decided to drop
Eagleton.
- Contrary to the expectation of most political analysts, the fact that Eagleton
had received electric shock treatment did not mean that he was automaticllly ruled out
for high office by the public. By decisive 59-28 percent, a majority of the public disagreed
with the claim that "the fact that Sen. Eagleton had shock treatment disqualifies him for
high office."
Taken together, two central facts, then, begin to emerge trom the Eagleton affair:
1) That the American people did not panic upon hearing the news that Sen.
Eagleton had had previous psychiatric troubles. Apparently, a substantial segment of
public opinion feels that mental problems can be solved, much as medical difficulties can
be overcome.
2) In taking his action to drop Eagleton, McGovern gave up the gains he had
scored for being candid about the Missouri Senator's troubles, and at the same time showing
steadfast loyalty to a member of his team who was in trouble.
( more )
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
-3-
Part of the reason for the relative tolerance on the part of the public for mental
troubles stems from the degree to which the American people themselves have encountered
similar problems in their own lives. For example, when the cross section of voters was
asked if they had "sometimes felt down, lonely, or depressed," a high 65 percent reported
they had felt this way, up from 54 percent five years ago. Significantly, 72 percent
of young people under 30 said they had felt down or depressed. When people were asked
if any member of their own family had received psychiatric treatment, 21 percent reported
they had. This was markedly up from 14 percent who reported a family member receiving
psychiatric attention five years ago.
Thus, a substantial segment of American public opinion had had first hand
experience with psychiatric problems and treatment, and was not prepared to write a man
off for high office simply on these grounds alone.
Of course, all of these findings must not be taken to mean that the American
people think past psychiatric troubles are an asset for a man running for high office.
This was evident when the cross section was asked:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that any man with a background of mental disorders should
disqualify himself from running for President or Vice President?"
SHOULD MENTAL DISORDERS DISQUALIFY
A CANDIDATE FOR HIGH OFFICE?
Should
Not
Should
Not
Sure
%
%
%
Total Voters
45
44
11
By Age
18-29
30
60
10
30-49
40
49
11
50 and over
58
29
13
( more )
HARRIS SURVEY - August 14, 1972
- 4 -
With the young people 2 to 1 opposed to letting past mental troubles
automatically disqualify a man from high office, it is apparent that Sen. McGovern put
himself in some trouble among young people when he made his decision to drop Eagleton.
This development has been reflected in McGovern slipping from a 55-41 percent lead among
the under- 30 group in June to a 53-43 percent deficit today.
In the eyes of the public, a more salient reason for dropping Sen. Eagleton
could be found not in the mental health question, but rather the fact that the Missouri
Senator did not reveal his past troubles before he was nominated, an error of omission
condemned by a 76-18 percent margin. This was evident in this key question put to the
cross section:
"Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator Eagleton's past mental troubles should
not have been held against him but his show of bad character in keeping this information
from Senator McGovern should have disqualified him?"
NOT MENTAL TROUBLES BUT LACK OF CANDOR
SHOULD HAVE DISQUALIFIED EAGLETON
Total Voters
%
Agree
46
Disagree
39
Not Sure
15
Thus, if Sen. Eagleton had told Sen. McGovern about his psychiatric problems
in the first place and nonetheless had been chosen, the chances are that on the mental
health issue alone, the storm that followed might have been avoided. As it is, Sen. McGovern
not only has lost the momentum in these early stages of the campaign, but has created some
problems with his one best hope for ultimately achieving victory -- the new voters under
30 years of age.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To:
Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS TUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, August 17th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
In the aftermath of the three hectic weeks during which the Democratic Party
went through the tortures of finally coming up with its nominee for Vice President,
the net result has surely been a serious setback for Senator George McGovern.
Here are some of the implications of the dropping of Senator Eagleton from the
ticket and the subsequent efforts to finally come up with a candidate for the second spot
who would make the run:
Senator McGovern now has opened his campaign for the Presidency 23 percentage
points behind President Nixon, who holds a 57-34 percent lead. At no time in recent
political history has a candidate of the Democratic Party started off trailing by such a
margin. Hubert Humphrey never was more than 12 points behind in the Harris Surveys of
1968. Senator Barry Goldwater came out of the Republican convention in 1964 behind by
roughly the same margin as McGovern today. But Goldwater never closed the gap and ended
up losing by 21 points.
Even more serious than the actual numbers, which likely will change, is that
McGovern has now lost the initiative he hoped to gain from his spectacular victory in his
race for the nomination. His new politics coalition, basically built around an appeal
to the young, the educated, the independents, and the black and Spanish-speaking minorities,
saw most of the steam go out of it, as he became embroiled over whether to drop his
selected nominee for Vice President. His June lead of 55-41 percent among young people
under 30 evaporated and he now trails President Nixon by 53-43 percent among the young.
Back in May, he was only one point behind among the independent voters, 43-42 percent, but
he had dropped far behind to 60-25 among independents by early August.
( more )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - August 17th, 1972
- 2 -
On the Eagleton affair directly, on the surface, the voters indicate they mean to
be eminently fair to Senator McGovern. By 80-12 percent, a big majority say that "Senator
Eagleton's problems should not be held against Sen. McGovern in the election. Yet further
probing reveals that 33 percent of the voters feel that "Sen. McGovern's choice of
Sen. Eagleton casts real doubts about McGovern's qualifications to pick good men if he
became President, although 54 percent disagree. That one-third of all the likely voters
who are skeptical of McCovern's judgment could be a serious handicap indeed. Fully 19 percent
of the people who now plan to vote for him registered these doubts, as do 23 percent of the
under-30 vote, 31 percent of the college educated, 31 percent of the independent voters,
33 percent of the $15,000 and over income group ------ all of whom form the backbone of the
McGovern new politics coalition.
Much of the edge of a potential Democratic issue in attacking Vice President
Agnew has now been taken off. The Vice President has no better than a 45-47 percent negative
job rating and has been one of the most controversial Vice Presidents in recent history.
In separate tests made among potential Democratic nominees for Vice President against
Agnew in early August, his average lead was 52-40 percent. At first glance, this would
appear to be a substantial vote of endorsement of the Vice President. However, it should
be noted that in this same poll among a cross section of 1,630 voters surveyed in person,
conducted August 2nd and 3rd, President Nixon held a much wider 57-34 percent lead
over Senator McGovern.
There is little doubt that Agnew is the weaker half of the Republican ticket in
1972. But it will be difficult for the Democrats to make much of the Vice Presidential
issue now. For when they do, they will conjure up the fiasco of the past three weeks,
and that memory can only hurt George McGovern's chances next November 7th.
( )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - August 17th, 1972
- 3 -
Having reported all of this, however, it is well to keep in mind that the
election is still nearly three months off, and the early anti-McGovern trend is not
necessarily irreversible. One phenomenon which must be watched closely is the fact
that in 1972 the American people have had a tendency to look kindly on underdogs and to end
up voting for candidates whom the press establishment has written off.
In fact, there have been sure signs from other recent elections, including the
elections in Britain in 1970 that when an incumbent who. is not overly popular has
appeared to be on the threshold of a decisive victory, the voters reacted by saying,
in effect, that they did not think he should win by such a wide margin. So what might
be called the Harold Wilson backlash from Britain of 1970 could well begin to set in
during this election in America in 1972.
Nonetheless. by no stretch of the imagination can it be said that the events
surrounding the Eagleton affair did anything but damage the ultimate chances of Senator
George McGovern to win the White House in November.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 7, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
SUBJECT:
Harris Data
Per pur conversation on Saturday, attached is the latest trial
heat data from Lou Harris.
HARRIS SURVEY
August 4, 1972
Trial Heats
(August 2 & 3)
Nixon
McGovern -- Slippage
Nationwide
57
34
East
58
33
(-20)
Midwest
53
36
(-14)
South
65
27
(-7)
West
55
39
(-13)
Deep South
68
26
(-9)
Border States
62
29
(+5)
Cities
50
42
(-19)
Suburbs
57
33
(-17)
Towns
62
31
(-14)
Rural
62
28
(-5)
18-29 year olds
53
43
(-12)
30-49 year olds
58
34
(-21)
50+
59
28
(-4)
8th grade education
52
36
(-7)
High School
11
58
31
(-21)
College
11
58
37
(-14)
Men
58
33
(-17)
Women
56
35
(-16)
Black
16
77
(+20)
White
62
29
(-18)
Under $5,000
52
39
(-4)
$5,000 - 9, 999
55
35
(-8)
$10,000 - 14, 999
58
31
(-5)
$15, 000+
65
30
(-27)
Union Members
49
40
(-27)
Republicans
87
10
(-9)
Democrats
38
53
(-15)
Independents
60
25
(-34)
Catholics
55
33
(-24)
Jewish
46
44
(-29)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Tuesday AM, August 8th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
In the aftermath of the Eagleton affair, Sen. George McGovern has slipped even
further behind in his race against President Nixon and now trails by 23 points,
57-34 percent, Early in July, the Nixon lead over McGovern stood at 55-35 percent,
20 points ahead.
Here is the trend of Harris Survey trial heats pitting the two opponents
for the Presidency against each other, the latest taken on August 2nd and 3rd, among
a cross section of 1,630 likely voters interviewed in person:
"In the election this November for President it will be between Richard Nixon for the
Republicans and Sen. George McGovern for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now
whom would you vote for Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?'
NIXON VS. McGOVERN TREND
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
August, 1972
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
Thus, in this latest test, reflecting the full impact of the episode in which
McGovern had to drop Sen. Thomas Eagleton as his running mate, the South Dakotan is now
running more behind the President than at any time since last March, when McGovern
was much less known.
(more)
Of particular significance in this latest survey is that President Nixon leads
by a substantial margin in every region of the country, is ahead of McGovern in the big
cities, the under 30 vote, both men and women, union members, independent, and Catholic
voters. In the case of the union, Catholic; and the big city vote, these have been
traditional Democratic strongholds in national Presidential elections.
The following table shows the breakdown of the Nixon-McCovern division among
key voting groups, and also the slippage that has taken place in the McGovern margin
between May and August.
NIXON-MC GOVERN RACE BY KEY GROUPS
Margin
McGovern
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
Dropped
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
57
34
9
-16
By Region
East
58
33
9
-20
Midwest
53
36
11
-14
South
.68
26
6
-7
West
55
39
6
-13
By Size of Place
Cities
50
42
8
-19
Suburbs
57
33
10
-17
Towns
62
31
7
-14
Rural
62
28
10
-5
By Age
18-29
53
43
4
-22
30-49
58
34
8
-21
50 and over
59
28
13
-4
By Income
Under $5,000
52
39
9
-4
$5,000-$9,999
55
35
10
-8
$10,000-$14,999
58
31
11
-5
$15,000 and over
65
30
5
-29
Union Members
49
40
11
--27
By Party
Republican
87
10
3
-9
Democratic
38
53
9
-15
Independent
60
25
15
-34
By Religion
Write Protestant
68
24
8
-19
Catholic
55
23
12
-24
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - August oth, 1972
McGovern has dropped from his strongest showing back in May when he trailed
by only 7 points chiefly among voters in the East, in the big cities, the suburbs,
the 30-49 age group, those with incomes of $15,000 and over, union members, independent
voters, and Catholics. In addition, of course, President Nixon has scored heavily on his
peace missions to Peking and Moscow, the economy has improved, and the public believes
he inspires more confidence personally. The vote which would have gone to Gov. George
Wallace on a third-party line now divides better than two-to-one for Mr. Nixon.
The irony of McGovern's showing over the past two months, including the period
in which he was nominated by his party in Miami Beach is that he has lost much ground
among both the pivotal groups making up the old Democratic coalition and those which
are forming up to constitute the new politics. The Democratic nominee has slipped
heavily among union members, big city voters, and Catholics, who provided the
margin of victory for Democrats from Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 to John F. Kennedy
in 1960.
The South Dakotan has also lost ground heavily among the newer and most
rapidly growing parts of the electorate: the better educated, suburban residents,
younger voters, high income groups, and most of all among the growing independent
segment. In his drive to the nomination, these groups were the very backbone of
McGovern support. These latter groups tend to agree most with McGovern stands on
cuts in defense spending, Vietnam, easing penalties for use of marijuana, amnesty
for those who left the country to avoid the draft, and stiff tax reform directed
against the rich and corporations.
In short, up to this point in time, George McGovern has received the worst of
both worlds of politics. He is losing among the groups most traditionally oriented to
economic or bread-and-butter issues and also among those attuned to the newer, non-econo
issues.
It is possible for McGovern to slip further, but the likelihood is for the
current Nixon lead to diminish, even sharply, before Election Day. For it is probably
when McGovern comes out of his troubles over a running mate and begins to attack on th
issues that he will recoup at least some of the ground he has lost among either the ol.
Democratic coalition or the new politics centers of the young, the suburban, the
affluent, the educated, and the independents.
But with three months to go, it is a long uphill fight for George McGovern to
27
the White House.
#
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago-Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, August 7th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
If the voters were able to vote for the office of Vice President alone next
November, Senator Edmund Muskie on the Democratic ticket would begin with a 48-47 percen
edge over Vice President Spiro Agnew on the Republican line. This narrow lead for Muski
contrasts with the 54-37 percent margin by which Agnew would have been leading Senator
Thomas Eagleton had he remained on the ticket as George McGovern's running mate.
When asked directly if they thought McCovern was right or not to drop
Engleton from the ticket, by 53-37 percent, a cross-section of 1,630 likely voters
interviewed in person between August 2nd and 3rd, said they thought
McGovern was right to replace the Missouri Senator.
Senator Muskie was for the Vice Presidency against Agnew clong with
former Democratic National Chairman Lawrence O'Brien, Mayor Kevin White of Boston, and
Senator Eagleton.
The cross-section of voters was asked:
"Suppose you could vote for Vice President between Spiro Agnew for the Republicans and
(Eagleton, Muskie, etc.) for the Democrats. If you had to choose, would you vote for
Agnew the Republican or Eagleton the Democrat?"
AGNEW VS. EAGLETON FOR VICE PRESIDENT
(Likely voters)
Agnew
Democrat
Not Sure
%
%
%
Agnew VS.
Senator Edmund Muskie
47
48
5
Ex-Democratic Chairman Lawrence O'Brien
50
43
7
Senator Thomas Eagleton
54
37
9
Mayor Kevin White
56
30
14
(MORE)
BANKES SURVIT - August 7En, 1972
- 2
Out of the four possible choices tested, Muskie ran easily the strongest race,
although 0' Brien finished no more than 7 points behind Agnew. Mayor White, obviously
unknown to large numbers of the voters ran 26 points behind Vice President Agnew.
Of course, on November 7th, voters will have to cast their ballots for
both the President and Vice Presidential candidates grouped together, since there is
no way to vote for the two., offices separately. However, these results indicate that
Sen. Muskiewould be contributing appreciable support to the McGovern candidacy, particul
in contrast with Sen. Eagleton.
The following analysis shows some of the key groups where Muskie makes a
particularly strong showing against Agnew:
AGNEW VS. MUSKIE
BY KEY GROUPS
Agnew
"Muskie
Not Sure
%
%
%
Total Likely Voters
47
48
5
By Region
East
45
50
5
Midwest
45
50
5
South
57
37
6
West
42
53
5
Border States
54
40
6
Deep South
61
34
5
By Age
18-29
39
57
4
30-49
46
49
5
50 and over
54
40
6
By Education
8th grade or less
42
52
6
High school
49
44
7
College
47
50
3
Union Members
40
53
7
ByyReligion
White Prot.
58
37
5
Catholic
43
50
7
Jewish
32
62
6
(more)
Senator Muskie makes a strong showing in all regions outside the South, where
Vice President Agnew is ahead by 57-37 percent. Agnew is particularly popular in the
Deep South. Among age groups, Muskie wins the under 30 vote handily by 57-39 percent,
although Agnew leads among 50 and older voters 54-40 percent. Muskie shows an ability
to carry the pivotal college educated vote by a narrow 50-47 percent. He also scores
well among union members by 53-40 percent, and among Catholics by 50-43 percent.
In fact, of the four possible Democratic picks for Vice President tested,
%%
Muskie was the only one who was able to carry the college educated, the East and West
Coasts, and
Catholics. In addition, Muskie runs even with Agnew in the suburbs
of the country 47-47 percent, far ahead of the other Democrats who lost in the suburbs
by at least 11 points. Muskie runs 18 points ahead among young people, compared to no
more than a three-point edge for either Eagleton or O'Brien.
The cross section of voters was also asked:
"Do you think Senator McGovern was more right or more wrong to ask Senator Eagleton not
to run for Vice President on the Democratic ticket?":
MC GOVERN MORE RIGHT OR WRONG TO DROP EAGLETON?
Total Voters
%
More right
53
More wrong
37
Not sure
10
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 Last 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Tuesday AM, August 8th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
In the aftermath of the Eagleton affair, Sen. George McGovern has slipped even
further behind in his race against President Nixon and now trails by 23 points,
57-34 percent. Early in July, the Nixon lead over McGovern stood at 55-35 percent,
20 points ahead.
Here is the trend of Harris Survey trial heats pitting the two opponents
for the Presidency against each other, the latest taken on August 2nd and 3rd, among
a cross section of 1,630 likely voters interviewed in person:
"In the election this November for President it will be between Richard Nixon for the
Republicans and Sen. George McGovern for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now
whom would you vote for --- Nixon the Republican or McGovern the Democrat?"
NIXON VS. McGOVERN TREND
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
August, 1972
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
Thus, in this latest test, reflecting the full impact of the episode in which
McGovern had to drop Sen. Thomas Eagleton as his running mate, the South Dakotan is now
running more behind the President than at any time since last March, when McGovern
was much less known.
(more)
OF particular significance in this latest survey is that President Nixon leads
by a substantial margin in every region of the country, is ahead of McGovern in the big
cities, the under 30 vote, both men and women, union members, independent, and Catholic
voters, In the case of the union, Catholic; and the big city vote, these have been
traditional Democratic strongholds in national Presidential elections.
The following table shows the breakdown of the Nixon-McCovern division among
key voting groups, and also the slippage that has taken place in the McGovern margin
between May and August.
NIXON-MC GOVERN RACE BY KEY GROUPS
Margin
McGovern
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
Dropped
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
57
34
9
-16
By Region
East
58
33
9
-20
Midwest
53
36
11
-14
South
68
26
6
-7
West
55
39
6
-13
By Size of Place
Cities
50
42
8
-19
Suburbs
57
33
10
-17
Towns
62
31
7
-14
Rural
62
28
10
-5
By Age
18-29
53
43
4
-22
30-49
58
34
8
-21
50 and over
59
28
13
-4
By Income
Under $5,000
52
39
9
-4
$5,000-$9,999
55
35
10
-8
$10,000-$14,999
58
31
11
-5
$15,000 and over
65
30
5
-29
Union Members
49
40
11
-27
By Party
Republican
87
10
3
-9
Democrat
38
53
9
-15
Independent
60
25
15
-34
By Religion
Unite Protestant
68
24
8
-19
Catholic
55
23
12
-24
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - August orn, 1972
McGovern has dropped from his strongest showing back in May when he trailed
by only 7 points chiefly among voters in the East, in the big cities, the suburbs,
the 30-49 age group, those with incomes of $15,000 and over, union members, independent
voters, and Catholics. In addition, of course, President Nixon has scored heavily on his
peace missions to Peking and Moscow, the economy has improved, and the public believes
he inspires more confidence personally. The vote which would have gone to Gov. George
Wallace on a third-party line now divides better than two-to-one for Mr. Nixon.
The irony of McCovern's showing over the past two months, including the period
in which he was nominated by his party in Miami Beach is that he has lost much ground
among both the pivotal groups making up the old Democratic coalition and those which
are forming up to constitute the new politics. The Democratic nominee has slipped
heavily among union members, big city voters, and Catholics, who provided the
margin of victory for Democrats from Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 to John F. Kennedy
in 1960.
The South Dakotan has also lost ground heavily among the newer and most
rapidly growing parts of the electorate: the better educated, suburban residents,
younger voters, high income groups, and most of all among the growing independent
segment. In his drive to the nomination, these groups were the very backbone of
McGovern support. These latter groups tend to agree most with McGovern stands on
cuts in defense spending, Vietnam, easing penalties for use of marijuana, amnesty
for those who left the country to avoid the draft, and stiff tax reform directed
against the rich and corporations.
In short, up to this point in time, George McGovern has received the worst of
both worlds of politics. He is losing among the groups most traditionally oriented to
economic or bread-and-butter issues and also among those attuned to the newer, non-econo
issues.
It is possible for McGovern to slip further, but the likelihood is for the
current Nixon lead to diminish, even sharply, before Election Day. For it is probably
when McCovern comes out of his troubles over a running mate and begins to attack on th.
issues that he will recoup at least some of the ground he has lost among either the ol.
Democratic coalition or the new politics centers of the young, the suburban, the
affluent, the educated, and the independents.
But with three months to go, it is a long uphill fight for George McGovern to
17
the White House.
#
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago-Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
Lnicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
_20 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
or Release: Monday AM, July 24th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The decision of Gov. George Wallace not to run again on a third-party ticket
could well cost Sen. George McGovern, the Democratic nominee, as much as 5 percentage
/ points in the fall election. When likely voters who prefer Wallace for the presidency -
15 percent at latest count - are asked to choose between Sen. McGovern and President Nixon,
they say they will vote Republican by 57-25 percent.
On a national basis, the Democrats stand to lose a greater number of total
votes in the North than in the South among former Wallace voters. In all, 56 percent
of the Wallace vote is drawn from the more populous North and 44 percent from the South,
where Nixon already runs strongly. In the North, the Wallace vote at this stage of the
Tempaign splits - for President Nixon by a margin of 55-25 percent. In the South, Wallace
Supporters prefer Nixon over McGovern by 61-25 percent. Although these patterns are
Similar, the Wallace vote in the North could be the key to the outcome of a close, two-way
Presidential race in the large industrial states.
The following table spells out the impact of a Wallace withdrawal among key groups
In the electorate. The results are drawn from a Harris Survey conducted among 1,901 household
nationwide between July 1st and 6th:
NIXON GAINS FROM WALLACE SUPPORTERS
Net Nixon
Gain
%
Nationwide
5
North
2
South
9
Suburbs
4
18-29 year olds
8
$5,000 - 9,999 income
5
$10.000 - 14.999
6
Union nembers
4
Independents
7
Catholics
2
(more)
MARRIS SURVEY - July 24, J972
-2-
The implications of these findings are:
-- In the South, the net pickup of 9 points for President Nixon from the former
Wallace vote gives the Republican a commanding 62-27 percent lead in that region. In the
North, former Wallace supporters give Mr. Nixon an average gain of 2 points. While this
may seam like a small difference, the margin could prove decisive in a number of key
= industrial states that are pivotal in the election.
--- The swing suburban vote could also be vitally affected by ex-Wallace backers.
In all, 12 percent of all suburban residents were for the Alabama Governor. When asked to
choose between Sen. McGovern and President Nixon, they contribute a net gain of 4 points
to the Nixon column there.
- Among the under-30 group, a majority of whom are not on the college campuses,
: former Wallace supporters now intend to give Mr. Nixon a net gain of 8 points. This
- could sharply reduce the current McGovern lead among the young.
-- Among middle-income groups, where the Wallace vote had risen to 18 percent,
: President Nixon scores a net gain of 5 points. This adds to Mr. Nixon's already wide lead
among middle-income voters.
-- Among union members, where Wallace had attracted a substantial 18 percent of
the vote, Mr. Nixon runs two-to-one ahead in preference and picks up a net gain of 4 points.
In 1968, similar defections from union ranks were evident, and only a concerted drive by
:
trade unions in the final month kept the Wallace total down. Given the coolness to the
McGovern candidacy by union leaders, this loss for the Democrats could be costly.
-- Among independent voters, 17 percent of whom had intended to 8.0 for Wallace,
President Nixon registers a net gain of 7 points. It is highly likely that Sen. McGovern's
ultimate chances depend on his ability to carry the independent vote in November. The forme
Wallace supporters could well make that more difficult.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - July 24, 1972
-3-
-- The politically sensitive Catholic vote also will be affected by where
ex-Wallacites end up onllection Day. WithWallage out, Mr. Nixon scores a net gain of 2
points. At last count, voters who are Catholics were going 54-37 percent for the GOP
candidate in a two-way race.
Obviously, the early reactions of those who wanted to vote for George Wallace looks
like bad news for Senator McGovern. However, it should be pointed out that the two
principal motivators of the Wallace vote stemmed from (1) a deep feeling against school
busing to schieve racial balance and (2) from an alienation which focused heavily 02 tax
inequities and tax reform, The busing issue works strongly in President Nixon's favor.
But the tax reform issue definitely helps Senator McGovern.
So, in the end, the direction in which the former Wallace vote will eventually go,
although at the moment heavily inclined toward Richard Nixon, is still subject to the flow
of the 1972 campaign as waged by the candidates of the two major parties
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribunc-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 that 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, July 27th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The heart of the strategy and arithmetic of the McGovern candidacy in 1972
is that 18 million young people newly eligible to vote for President can be registered
and that 2 sizable majority can be delivered to the Democratic column on Election Day.
From the recent evidence, there is every indication that young people under 30 are likely
to be voting differently from their elders in this year's election.
In the last two Harris Surveys, while the electorate as a whole has been
giving President Nixon a wide 18-point lead, Senator McCovern has been ahead among voters
under-30 by a margin of 9 points. The South Dakotan's lead among young voters has been as
high as 14 points. Although this bulge for McGovern has yet to be translated into actual
votes, he begins the campaign with his most substantial support to be found among young
voters.
McGovern strategists are banking on this heavy tilt of the young toward the
Senator to make a substantial difference in a close election. Historically, however, the
turnout of the young in national elections has been consistently lower than that of their
elders. Most major polls are usually adjusted for this turnout of "likely voters. " Much
of the accuracy of the polls this year will depend on how correctly public opinion analysts
can estimate the rate of turnout of the young vote. For Senator McCovern, the rate of
turnout of the young could spell the difference between victory and defent.
Based on registration figures to date and turnout patterns in both regular
elections and in the primaries, where the 18-29-year-old group has had the vote, the likely
under-30 vote is today running well below its potential:
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - July 27th, 1972
- 2
POTENTIAL VS. LIKELY VOTERS
Population
Electorate
%
%
18-29 age
29
23
30-49
36
39
50 and over
35
38
At the moment, the best estimate is that the share of the actual vote for
those under 30 might well turn out to be as much as 6 points below their share of the
population potentially eligible to vote. The over-30 vote share of the actual electorate
is running 6 points higher than its share in the population.
Although Sen. McGovern has had a 9-point lead among young people under 30
in the last two Harris Surveys, he has trailed by 23 points among voters over 30.
Combined, this has given President Nixon a 14-point lead over his Democratic opponent.
However, if the under-30 vote were to come out to its full potential of the
total (29%) on Election Day, this fact alone would improve McGovern's standing against
Nixon by better than 1 point. Accordingly, if the proportion of the 30-49 age group
in the total vote cast were to shrink from 39 to 36 percent, this would bring Mr. Nixon's
margin down by another 4 percentage points.
Thus, just by changing the rate of turnout among young people up to their
full potential, the Nixon lead of 14 points could be cut to 8 points. To be sure,
this would still leave the President with a wide lead, and his edge in the early stages
of this campaign would not be wiped out.
The range of difference between an average and exceptional turnout among
young voters in this elect could mean between 4 and 6 percentage points in the outcome.
This means that in a close 52-48 percent or 53-47 percent Nixon lend over McGovern in
the popular vote, the ultimate outcome would be cast in doubt or reversed.
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - July 27th, 1972
- 3 -
All of this analysis assumes, of course, that the McCovern lead among young
voters will remain where it is or even increase. Over the past year, President Nixon has
run as. much as 16 points behind to dead even among young voters. After his trips to
Peking and Noscow, the President narrowed the deficit he had been showing among the
under-30 vote.
There is no doubt that the peace issue is dominant with the young in 1972,
and much of where this vote will go depends on the resolution of the Vietnam war and
how the candidates make their cases on peace between now and Election Day.
This analysis of the youth vote, however, points up an equally challenging
problem for Senator McGovern. It is evident that he has been trailing by substantial
margins -- over 20 points --- among middle-aged and older voters. If the South Dakota
Senator focuses an inordinate amount of his campaign energies on the young at the
neglect of the other age groups, a herculean effort to reverse the traditional patterns
of low turnout among young people might prove to be in vain.
In short, McGovern's problem with the young may be the difficult matter of
getting them to come out to register and vote. With the other age categories, he
faces the even more difficult task at this stage of the campaign of actually changing
their minds.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To:
Chicago York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 st 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SUNDY
for Release: Monday M1, July 10th, 1972
Not Before
For
By Louis Harris
As a result of his striking string of primary victories, Sen. George McGovern
is now a familiar figure to 75 percent of the nation's electorate. For example,
67 percent of the votern admire the South Dakota Senator for having "the courage to
say what he thinks even if it is unpopular," up from 63 percent who felt that way in
May. By and large, McCovern evokes a positive response from most voters.
However, the bitter primary struggles have not left his public image untarnished:
The number of voters who agree with the statement that "McCovern deserves
credit for being against Vietnam before others" is 50 percent, while 29 percent disagree.
This larest division is not quite as good as the 54-21 percent positive split McGovern
enjoyed in May.
---- By 45 to 23 percent, voters give the South Dakotan high marks for being
a "fighter for tax reform who wants to help the working man." In May, however, the
public agreed with the same statement by a larger 48-14 percent.
- By 42-34 percent, voters feel that McGovern has a "sincere, appealing
personality," but this is down from the 46-26 percent margin he showed in May.
--- By 38-34 percent, a slin plurality believes that George McGovern "stands
fo. the right kind of change in the country." This question was not asked in previous
Harris Surgeys,
(move )
PARRIS SUGNEY -* July 10, 1972
--2--
Thus, with the exception of peblic adviced ion for bis nouza_e to be outspoken,
Sea. McGovern did not materially improve on the initial positive depression he had
made 00 the electorate in the latter stages of the bartle for the nomint ion.
At the sane time, some of the negative espects about the South Dakota Senator
have been increasing:
The most striking reversel has been over the charge that McGovern has
"too extrece, liberal views. " AL latest count, b; 43-33 percent, a plurality of the
voters agree with that statement. Back in May, by a narrow 33-31 percent, a plurality
disagreed with the Same statement. This switch Inspectes a damaging turo to the
NcGovern cause.
By a slim 39-38 percent, votors agree with the statement that NcGovern
"does not inspire confidence as a President should." Back in May, by 36-33 percent,
voters rejected thateriticism.
----- However, by 38-36 percent, another small plurality disagrees with the
charge that "McCovern wants to change things too much." This question was not asked
in May.
--- And,by 43-32 percent, voters now disagree with the criticism that
George McGovern "has a flat, uninteresting personality." However, In May, a larger
45-28 percent took exception to such a statement.
- Finally, by 48-28 percent, the public denies the claim that McGovern is
a "one-issue man only Victnon." On this score, he has improved since May, when the
public disagreed with the one-issue image by a Jesser 43-28 percent.
(pore )
PARRIS SURVEY - July 10, 1972
-3--
Basically, after a tresendous surge forward in both public recognition and
respect from April to May, the McGovern import has slowed down on the positive side
and new doubts crept in as a result of the bitter California primary.
This treed was further reflected in the trial heats the Harris Survey conducted
between Sen. McGovern and President Nixon and Cov. George Wallace OH a third-party line.
As reported earlier, the latest Harris Survey shows McCovern now trailing the President
by a 12-point margin in a three-way race, 45 to 33 percent, and by 16 points in a two-
way race, 54-38 percent. In May, the South Dakotan was behind by no more than 5 points,
40-35 percent, in a CONTAGE and by 7 points, 48-41 percent, in a Liverway
contest.
However, there is one result in the current survey findings which might mean
more in the end than all the rest: the 38-34 percent mergin by which a plurality of
the voters express the view that "George McGovern stands for the right kind of change,"
A breakdown of the results of that question reveal a pattern of potential McGovern
support that could make him a formidable contender by November. The cross section of
1,401 voters was asked between June 7th-12th:
(more)
HAPPIES SORVEY - July 10, 1972
-4-
"Do you Lend to agree or disagree with the statement that Senator George McGovern stands
for the right hirl of change in this country?"
DOES NeCOVERY STAND FOR RIGHT KIND OF CHANGE?
Dis-
Not
Agree
agree
Sure
/
%
%
Total Voters
38
34
28
By Region
East
44
27
29
Midwest
37
39
24
South
25
40
35
West
48
28
24
By Age
18-29
54
28
18
00 12
34
36
30
50 and over
32
36
32
By Education
8th grade or less
33
23
44
High school
34
36
30
College
44
35
21
Union Members
39
30
31
By Politics
Republicans
25
46
20
Democrats
44
26
30
Independents
44
35
21
By Religion
Protestants
29
40
31
Catholics
38
35
27
Jewish
62
21
17
Perhaps the secret of McGovern's success in the primaries was his
ability to become the personification of "the right kind of change" at a time when
the country clearly was ripe for this kind of challenge. Only in the South does McGovern
fail to score as the symbol of acceptable change. If he is the Democratic nominee, and
if McGovern can translate the inclination of the young, independents, the college educated,
Catholics, and union members into hard votes in the months abead, the arithnetic of the
election might wind up.0 good deal closer than it is today.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 "Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)