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This file contains:
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/6/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/26/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/5/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/25/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/19/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/15/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/11/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/8/1972
To: Gordon. From: Joan Hall. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/10/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972
Article by Louis Harris. "51% Think McGovern Speaks Out" 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 4/13/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 4/20/1972
Trial Heats. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/28/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/12/1972
To: Mr. Colson. From: L. Higby. Attached telephone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/21/1970
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Harris Horerace polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/17/1970
To: Larry Higby. From: Charles Colson. RE: Harris poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/14/1970
To: Mr. Colson. From: H. R. Haldeman. RE: Harris Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/30/1970
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26146112
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WHSF: Contested, 42-10
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1
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26146112
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 42-10
description
This file contains:
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/3/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/6/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/26/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 6/5/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/22/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/25/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/19/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/15/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/11/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/8/1972
To: Gordon. From: Joan Hall. 1pg [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/10/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972
Article by Louis Harris. "51% Think McGovern Speaks Out" 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 4/13/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 4/20/1972
Trial Heats. 5pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/28/1972
Article by Louis Harris. RE: Harris Survey analysis. 6pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 7/12/1972
To: Mr. Colson. From: L. Higby. Attached telephone poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/21/1970
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE: Harris Horerace polls. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/17/1970
To: Larry Higby. From: Charles Colson. RE: Harris poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/14/1970
To: Mr. Colson. From: H. R. Haldeman. RE: Harris Poll. 1pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/30/1970
citationUrl
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
10
7/3/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 3pgs.
42
10
7/6/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
6/26/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
6/5/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 5pgs.
42
10
5/22/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
5/25/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs
42
10
5/19/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
5/15/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
5/11/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
5/8/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
4/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
To: Gordon. From: Joan Hall. 1pg
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Page 1 of 2
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
42
10
5/4/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. "51%
Think McGovern Speaks Out" 1pg.
42
10
4/13/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
4/20/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 4pgs.
42
10
3/28/1972
Campaign
Report
Trial Heats. 5pgs.
42
10
7/12/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
Newspaper article by Louis Harris. RE:
Harris Survey analysis. 6pgs.
42
10
12/21/1970
Campaign
Memo
To: Mr. Colson. From: L. Higby. Attached
telephone poll. 1pg.
42
10
12/17/1970
Campaign
Memo
To: H. R. Haldeman. From: L. Higby. RE:
Harris Horerace polls. 1pg.
42
10
12/14/1970
Campaign
Memo
To: Larry Higby. From: Charles Colson. RE:
Harris poll. 1pg.
42
10
11/30/1970
Campaign
Memo
To: Mr. Colson. From: H. R. Haldeman. RE:
Harris Poll. 1pg.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Page 2 of 2
To:
Chicago Tribur - York lives Syndicate, Inc.
226 lest 72nd Street, Now York, N.Y. 1447
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, July 3rd, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
In the aftermath of the attempt on his life, a deep wellspring of sympathy
has developed for Gov. George Wallace personally. The number who see him as a
"man of high integrity" has risen from 40 to 56 percent, and 75 percent of the public
agree with the statement that "he is brave to keep running for President after he
was shot."
Although there has been a dramatic rise in the favorable estimates of Wallace
the man by.the American people since the attempted assassination, his actual vote totals
have not changed appreciably from what they were just before that tragic event. Paired
as the nominee of the Democratic party, Wallace polled 24 percent of the vote just
before the shooting, precisely what he achieved in the latest Harris Survey taken in
mid-June. As an independent third-party candidate, Wallace received 17 percent of the
vote against President Nixon and Sen. McGovern in May and the same percent in June.
However, another highly important political fact now surrounds the Wallace
candidacy. If Sen. McGovern is the Democratic nominee, Wallace as a third-party candidate
would draw off nearly twice as many votes from President Nixon as from McGovern.
If Senator Edward Kennedy were the Democratic candidate, the pattern would be much
the same.
Put another way, if George Wallace decides not to run as a third-party candidate
this fall, the net result,as of now, would be to add 4 points to the Nixon margin against
McGovern and 6 points if Kennedy were the Democratic standard-bearer.
( more )
BACKS SERVICE July 3rd, 1972
- 2
Thus, the Democrats have is deep dilemma as they await the possible visit of
Govern or Wallace to their convention in Miami Beach next week. The Democrats would be
much batter off if Vallace were to bolt the Democratic party and run as an independent
again. On the other hand, public sympathy for the Alabama Governor runs so strong now
that any unfair treatment of Wallace could cause deep resentment against the Democrats
and their ultimate nominee.
Here is the trend of the public profile of Governor Wallace from surveys in May
and June, the latest taken among 1,401 likely voters between June 7th and 12th, in
response to this question:
"Now let me read you some statements which have been made about Governor George Wallace
of Alabama. For each, tell me if you tend to agree or disagree." (READ STATEMENTS)
PROFILE OF GOV. GEORGE WALLACE
Positive:
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
Has courage to say what he really thinks
%
%
%
June
90
6
4
May
85
10
5
Brave to keep running after shooting
June
75
16
9
May
X
X
X
Wants to help working people by relieving their tax burden
June
56
20
24
May
49
26
25
Man of high integrity
June
56
23
21
May
40
35
25
Right to want to leave race relations to the states
June
46
38
16
May
43
42
15
Hould keep law and order the way it should be kept
June
42
41
17
May
38
45
17
Negative
Represents view of one section, not whole country
>*
June
53
37
10
May
59
29
12
Extremist, makes him less qualified for presidency
June
44
44
12
May
54
34
12
If elected, would divide country, could not rule
June
42
40
18
May
50
26
24
Racist, stirring UD trouble
June
38
51
11
May
44
43
13
Should not run after being hurnied
June
30
59
11
May
X
X
X
Dangerents demagoque
24
57
19
June
may
X not asked in Hay
35
45
20
MARKIS SURVEY - July 3rd, 1972
- 3
Across the Loard. each of the positives about Wallace has risen, with confidence
in him personally increasing the most. Comparably, the negatives about Wallace have also
declined. Host notably, the number who view him as an extremist has dropped from
54-34 parcent in May to an even-up 44-44 percent in June. The 44-43 percent margin who
believed him to be a racist in May turned around to a denial of this charge in June,
51-38 percent.
The delicacy with which Wallace is treated at the Democratic convention is
important;
if he should leave Miami Beach and endorse President Nixon, he would
be in a position to damage the Democratic nominee significantly. On the other hand,
a Wallace third-party candidacy at this juncture would harm the Republicans- more
than the Democrats. In a Ilixon-McGovern two-way contest, the Wallace vote divides
50-37 percent for the President in the North, and an even higher 62-22 percent in the South.
In a Nixon-Kennedy two-way contest, the Wallace vote divides 53-38 percent in favor of
Mr. Nixon in the North, and 63-22 percent in the South.
Apart from the South, where a Wallace withdrawal of his third-party candidacy
would virtually assure President Nixon of sweeping that region, the absence of Wallace
from the ballot would add a net advantage of 10 points to the Nixon column among
independents, 4 among suburban voters, 7 among voters 50 years of age and over,
7 points among the $5,000-9,999 income group, and 5 points among the pivotal $15,000
and over group.
A Wallace endorsement of the Democratic nominee might blunt some of this loss
for the Democrats. Ironically, the Democrats would be best off if Wallace were to run
as a third-party candidate again in 1972. As an independent, with the deep sympathy he
has evoked, he would in all likelihood make a better showing than he did in 1968. He
would still finish third, however, while making the popular vote closer between the two
major-party candidates for President.
#
#
***.
(Copyricht: 1972 Chicago Tribane-New York News Synticate, Inc.
World hights Res (ved)
To: Chicago Triburse-lieu York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, ilav York, I.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPTHION AMALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, July 6th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Sen. George McGovern for the first time is the first choice of Democratic
and independent voters nationwide to be nominated for
resident at the Democratic
convention next week. But his small lead in a popularity contest against the Democratic
field is in contrast to his impressive standing in the delegate count.
McGovern polls a minority of 24 percent, followed by Gov. George Wallace
in second place with 21 percent, Sen. Edward Kennedy at 19 percent, and Sen. Hubert
Humphrey at 15 percent. With Kennedy eliminated from the list of choices, McGovern
still finishes on top, both among Democrats and independents, although polling less
than a majority of the total preferences.
Although McGovern is the unquestioned front-runner at the Democratic convention
opening Monday, in a variety of tests conducted by the Harris Survey after his pivotal
primary victories the South Dakotan failed to amass a clear majority in any one.
In a three-way showdown against Humphrey and Wallace, McGovern finishes on top
with 38 percent, compared with Sen. Hubert Humphrey's 29 percent, and Gov. George Wallace's
28 percent. In a heed-to-head contest with Sen. Humphrey, the result is no better than
48 to 38 percent for McGovern.
A cross section of 1,036 likely Democratic and independent voters was asked
this question between June 7th and 12th:
( more )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS July 6th, 1972
-- 2 -
"Which one of the people on this list (HAND RESPONDENT CARD) would be your first choice
for the ocratic Presidential nomination in 1972?"
FIRST CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Dems
Inds
Dams
Inds
30
&
%
McGovern
June
24
23
28
May
21
18
31
Wallace
June
21
21
23
May
19
19
18
Kennedy
June
19
22
13
May
20
23
14
Humphrey
June
15
18
9
May
20
25
10
Muskie
June
7
7
7
May
6
5
8
Other Candidates
June
.9
6
13
May
8
6
11
None
June
2
1
3
May
3
2
4
Not Sure
June
3
2
4
May
3
2
4
As a result of the spate of McGovern primary victories in late May and early
June, the South Dakota Senator continued his upward rise as the first choice of Democrats.
However, the number of independents who preferred him slipped 3 points after the
California primary.
After the attempt on his life, the number backing Gov. George Wallace rose
5 points, from 18 to 23 percent. Wallace also gained ground among Democrats, moving
from 19 to 21 percent as their first choice. By contrast, Senator Hubert Humphrey was
slipping 7 points as the first choice of Democrats, from 25 to 18 percent.
(more)
PUBLIC ANALYSTS ... July 6th, 1972
3
Continued ReCovern goins- and Humpliney declines also were evident in the
three-way and two-way "showdown" tests. The CLOSS section of Democrats and independents
were asked:
"Suppose for the Democratic nomination for President it came down to a choice between
Senator Hubert Humphrey, Senator George McGovern, and Governor George Wallace, whom
would you be for?"
HUMPHREY-MoGOVERN-WALLACE TEST
Total Dems-Inds.
June
May
is
in
McGovern
38
31
Humphrey
29
34
Wallace
28
26
Not sure
5
9 -
In a two-way showdown between Humphrey and McGovern, the cross section was
asked:
"Suppose for the Democratic nomination it were between Senator Humphrey and Senator
McGovern, whom would you be for?"
HUMPHREY-McGOVERN TEST
Total Dems -Inds
June
May
%
:
McGovern
48
40
Humphrey
38
45
Not sure
14
15
When the supporters of Sen. Edward Kennedy were asked for their second choice
for the Democratic nomination, once again McGovern moved up between May and June to become
the favorite alternative for Kennedy voters instead of Humphrey:
(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPTHION AMALYSIS - July 6th, 1972
4
SECOND CHOICE OF KENNEDY SUPPORTERS
June
May
is
%
HcGovern
32
22
Humphrey
24
41
Wallace
14
9
Muskie
12
7
Other candidates
10
5
None
4
5
Not Sure
4
11
With Senator Kennedy out of it, McGovern in fact moves into a 6-point lead
over Wallace among Democrats and independents.
PREFERENCE WITH KENNEDY OUT
(Total Dems and Inds.)
June
May
%
%
NcGovern
30
26
Wallace
24
21
Humphrey
21
28
Muskie
10
7
Chisholm
5
3
Jackson
3
3
Mills
2
1
None
2
2
Not sure
3
5
Thus, on the eve of the convention which he hopes to win, Senator McGovern
has finally moved into a clear first-choice position among the rank-and-file of
Democrats and independents. He is particularly strong among voters under 30, the
college educated, persons with incomes of $10,000 and over, and on the East and
West coasts.
However, the results also show that, if nominated, he is likely to preside
over a rather divided party. For in none of the extensive tests in the Harris Survey
was the South Dakota Senator able to obtain over 50 percent support from likely Democratic
voters. Clearly, if named as its standard-bearer this coming week in Miami Beach,
Sen. McGovern has a major tesk ahead of him of sowing party harmony.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York Hews Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, June 26th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although President Nixon has gained substantial ground in the wake of
his summit trip to Russia, Sen. Edward Kennedy has emerged -- as of new -- as the
potential Democratic candidate who runs the strongest race against the Republican
incumbent in the White House. This latest Harris Survey is based on a national
cross section of 1,401 voters interviewed between June 7th and 12th.
In a three-way contest against Richard Nixon and Gov. George Wallace on
third-party ticket, Sen, Kennedy trails the President by a 43-37 percent margin, W
the Alabama Governor at 16 percent. The current front-runner for the Democratic
nomination, Sen. George McGovern, runs behind Mr. Nixon by 45-33 percent, with Wal
at 17 percent. Sen. Hubert Humphrey trails by an even wider 47-31 percent, with
Wallace's vote at 17 percent. Sen. Edmund Muskie is even farther behind by a marg
of 49-28 percent, with Wallace at .18 percent.
If Gov. Wallace chooses not to run as a third-party candidate, President
Nixon's lead over all four Democrats increases. Contrary to earlier trends in
Harris Surveys, there is little doubt now that a Wallace withdrawal from the race
would help Mr. Nixon more than any potential Democratic opponent.
In two-way contests, Sen. Kennedy trails Mr. Nixon by a 53-41 percent
margin, Sen. McGovern is behind by 54-38 percent edge, Sen. Humphrey finishes in b
by 58-34 percent, and Sen. Muskie trails by 59-33 percent.
Thus, with the Democratic convention only two weeks away, President
Nixon holds a commanding lead against the field of prominently mentioned possible
Democratic candidates. Of that field, however, Sen. Kennedy would now appear to be
capable of running the strongest race.
When matched in a three-way contest against President Nixon as a Republic
and former Sen. Eugene McCarthy as a third-party candidate, Gov. Wallace as the
Democratic nominee finishes in third place. Nixon leads with 52 percent, McCarthy
is second with 21 percent, and Wallace as a Democrat is third with 20 percent. In
a two-way race, Republican Nixon far outdistances Democrat Wallace by 64-24 percent
Here is the trend of Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace trial heats in response to thi
basic question:
"Suppose in 1972 for President it were between Nixon the Republican, Senator Edward
Kennedy for the Democrats, and George Wallace as an Independent. If you had to
choose now, whom would you be for?"
NIXON-KENNEDY-WALLACE TREND
Kenn-
Wall-
Not
Nixon
edy
ace,
Sure
%
%
%
%
June, 1972
43
37
16
4
May
42
38
14
6
April
45
35
14
6
Jan.
45
39
10
6
Nov. '71
45
37
11
7
Sept.
45
38
11
6
Aug.
48
37
11
4
July
44
36
13
7
In a period of Nixon gains resulting from the widespread approval of his
summit agreements in Moscow, Sen. Kennedy has lost a net of only two points to the
incumbent Republican. In other match-ups, Democrats have lost on both sides of the
ledger -- their percentages have been dropping while the President's rises. Senat
McGovern, who was winning a string of six primaries while the President was in Rus
has dropped two points while Mr. Nixon was gaining five for a net drop of seven PO
HARRIS SURVEY June 1911
NIXON-McGOVERN-WALLACE TREND
McGov-
Wall-
Not
Nixon
ern
ace
Sure
%
%
%
%
June, 1972
45
33
17
5
May
40
35
17
8
April
47
29
16
8
March
53
28
13
6
Aug., 1971
48
33
13
6
May
47
33
11
9
April
46
36
13
5
Feb.
45
34
12
9
McGovern's chief opponent in the California primary, Sen. Hubert Humphr
dropped even more precipitously, from a
4-point to a 16-point deficit behind
President Nixon:
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE TREND
Hum--
Wall-
Not
Nixon.
phrey
ace
Sure
%
10
%
%
June, 1972
47
31
17
5
May
41
37
16
6
April
42
36
16
6
March
48
35
12
5
Feb.
47
36
12
5
Jan.
46
37
12
5
Sept., 1971
45
36
12
7
Sen. Muskie, who has renewed his campaign for the nomination , fares lea
well of all of the prominently menioned possible Democratic nominees:
NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE TREND
Wall- Not
Nixon
Muskie
ace
Sure
%
%
%
%
June, 1972
49
28
18
5
April
44
33
15
8
March
47
35
12
6
Feb.
44
40
11
5
Jan.
42
42
11
5
Sept., 1971
47
35
11
7
(more)
EARNIS SURVEY - June 26, 1972
-4-
With Wallace out of the race as a third-party candidate, here is how
the five leading Democratic possibilities line up against Richard Nixon.
NIXON VS. LEADING DEMOCRATS
Demo-
Not
Nixon
crat
Sure
%
%
%
Nixon VS. :
Kennedy
53
41
6
McGovern
54
38
8
Humphrey
58
34
8
Muskie
59
33
8
Wallace
64
24
12
It should be cautioned that these current results probably represent a
high-water mark for Mr. Nixon, and any Presidential race is likely to narrow as
Election Day approaches. But, for the moment, it is apparent that summit politics are
more effective in winning voter favor than primary politics, if these latest results
are any indication.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New-York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, June 5th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
As Sen. George McGovern has become more visible to the American electorate,
with the number of voters expressing familiarity with him nationwide rising from 55
to 70 percent in the past two months, the public impression of him has firmed up to
a highly positive profile. As yet, however, the intensity of this support has not
risen to peak levels. By contrast, Sen. Hubert Humphrey, well known to 82 percent when
the primaries began, strikes most voters in a mixed way -- well respected and well
liked, but with political handicaps perceived by close to half the electorate. At the
same time, those who respond to the Humphrey warmth do so with considerable conviction.
A national cross section of 1,385 likely voters was recently asked this
series of questions about McGovern:
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - June , 1972
-2-
"I'd like to read you some statements some people have made about Senator George McGover
of South Dakota. For each, tell me if you tend to agree or disagree. " (READ STATEMENTS)
McGOVERN PROFILE
Positive
May
April
Has courage to say what he thinks, even if
%
%
unpopular
Agree
63
51
Disagree
11
9
Not sure
26
40
Deserves credit for being against Vietnam war
before others were
Agree
54
41
Disagree
21
19
Not sure
25
40
Fighter for tax reform and wants to help
working man
Agree
48
X
Disagree*
14
X
Not sure
38
X
Has sincere, appealing personality
Agree
46
27
Disagree
26
26
Not sure
28
47
Negative
Doesn t inspire confidence as a President should
Agree
33
Disagree
36
X
Not sure
31
X
Has too extreme, liberal views
Agree
31
29
Disagree
33
20
Not sure
36
51
One issue man -- only Vietnam
Agree
28
33
Disagree
43
22
Not sure
29
45
Flat, uninteresting personality
Agree
28
28
Disagree
45
26
Not sure
27
46
X - Not asked
( )
HARRIS SURVEY - June 5, 1972
-3-
Across the board, on all dimensions, McGovern has improved his personal
standing with the voters. The growth in the appeal of the McGovern personality is
particularly striking. In early April, voters were evenly divided, 27-26 percent, over
whether he has a "sincere, appealing personality," with 4 out of 10 Americans unable
to express an opinion on this score. In this May Harris Survey, 26 percent are still
negative but 19 percent more have reached a judgment about his personality -- and all
come down on the positive side.
McGovern also shows some signs of communicating a sense of "wanting to help
the working man," which is important to his success with the blue-collar vote.
His problems appear to be two-fold: 1) He has yet to convince more than
36 percent of the voters nationwide that he "inspires confidence as a President should,'
and 2) The public has not yet made up its mind on the charge that he is "too extreme
a liberal. " Basically, the test on George McGovern is how his credibility holds up
as he moves up from an outside challenger to,a front-runner.
Because he has been a nationally known figure for many years, Senator Humphrey
profile has been subject to far less change. The cross section of voters was asked:
(more)
HARKIS SURVEY - June , 1972
-4-
"I'd like to read you some statements some people have made about Senator Hubert Humphr
For each, tell me if you tend to agree or disagree." (READ STATEMENTS)
HUMPHREY PROFILE
Positive
May
April
Warm, decent, friendly man
%
%
Agree
73
70
Disagree
12
12
Not sure
15
18
Unafraid to speak out on controversial subjects
Agree
56
53
Disagree
28
27
Not sure
16
20
Long experience qualifies him for Presidency
Agree
55
51
Disagree
38
38
Not sure
7
11
Negative
Too long-winded when he speaks
Agree
57
53
Disagree
30
28
Not sure
13
19
Not very attractive personality
Agree
48
45
Disagree
41
39
Not sure
11
16
Belongs more to past than future
Agree
47
46
Disagree
35
31
Not sure
18
23
Too closely connected with LBJ mistakes in Vietnam
Agree
46
46
Disagree
35
31
Not sure
19
23
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY - June 5, 1972
-5-
Those who view the former Vice President as a warm and friendly man include
three out of every four Americans. Although he is well liked, Hubert Humphrey has
nearly as many negatives going against him as positive attributes working for him.
Above all else, he is a fully known quantity to the American electorate.
George McGovern, on the other hand, comes across as a late discovery, which
gives him momentum. But the newness of these impressions also make him more subject
to changing public appraisal -- one that can move up or down, depending on his day-to-da
performance.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, May 22nd, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota has now established himself as a formidable
candidate for the White House, and is running just as strongly as Sen. Hubert Humphrey
against Mr. Nixon in Presidential pairings.
In the latest Harris Survey, President Nixon is ahead of Sen. McGovern 48-41 per
in a two-way contest. In a three-way race, Mr. Nixon leads the South Dakota Senator
40-35 percent, with George Wallace as a third-party nominee at 17 pércent.
Sen. Hubert Humphrey runs behind President Nixon 50-42 percent in a two-way
matchup. With Wallace running as a third-party nominee, the Minnesota Senator draws
closer, trailing by only 41-37 percent, with Wallace at 16 percent.
Although the differences in the percentages between Senators Humphrey and
McGovern are not significant, the obvious moving force in the electorate today is Sen. McGo
He has come from far back in the field to become a major contender, not only for the
Democratic nomination but with a chance now to capture the White House in November.
It is worth noting that at the present time a third-party candidacy by Gov. George Wallace
would help both Humphrey and McGovern in their nationwide percentages against Mr. Nixon.
Here is the trend since early 1971 of a Nixon-McGovern-Wallace race, with the
latest survey being conducted among a cross section of 1,385 likely voters on May 9th
and 10th, shortly after the President's announcement of the mining of North Vietnam harbor:
HARRIS SURVEY - May 22nd, 1972
- 2 -
"Suppose in 1972 for President it were between Richard Nixon for the Republicans,
Sen. George McGovern for the Democrats, and Gov. George Wallace as an independent.
If you had to choose right now, whom would you be for?"
NIXON-McGOVERN-WALLACE TREND
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Not Sure
%
%
%
%
May, 1972
40
35
17
8
April
47
29
16
8
March
53
28
13
6
August, 1971
48
33
13
6
May
47
33
11
9
April
46
36
13
5
February
45
34
12
9
Here is the trend in a direct Nixon-McGovern contest with no third-party
candidates:
NIXON-McGOVERN TREND
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
%
%
%
May, 1972
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
Just over a month ago, the South Dakota Senator appeared to be running poorly
against the President. A number of political commentators predicted that if he were
nominated at the July Democratic convention, McGovern would prove to be a "Barry Goldwate
of the Left," referring to the weak run made by the Arizona Senator when the Republican
candidate polarized the electorate in 1964. Certainly McGovern's upsurge belies any
such theory.
The dramatic McGovern gain in this latest Harris Survey obscures to an extent
the fact that, in the aftermath of the escalation of Vietnam hostilities, his chief
opponent for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hubert Humphrey, also makes his closest
run against President Nixon in a year.
HARRIS SURVEY - May 22nd, 1972
- 3 -
The cross section was asked:
"Suppose this November, it were between Richard Nixon for the Republicans, Senator
Hubert Humphrey for the Democrats, and George Wallace as an independent. If you
had to choose right now, whom would you be for?"
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE TREND
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Not Sure
%
%
%
%
May, 1972
41
37
16
6
April
42
36
16
6
March
48
35
12
5
February
47
36
12
5
January
46
37
12
5
November, 1971
45
36
12
7
September
45
36
12
7
May
44
39
10
7
April
42
41
13
4
November, 1970
46
39
11
4
April
50
36
11
3
November, 1969
48
37
12
3
In a two-way contest, here is the Nixon-Humphrey trend:
NIXON-HUMPHREY TREND
Nixon
Humphrey
Not Sure
%
%
%
May, 1972
50
42
8
April
50
42
8
March
53
37
10
February
51
41
8
In both the case of Senators McGovern and Humphrey, the Democratic nominee
is now showing better with George Wallace in the race as a third-party candidate than
when the Democrats run alone against Mr. Nixon. At this point in time, President Nixon
is picking up slightly more of the Wallace vote in a two-way contest than either of his
two leading possible Democratic opponents. This is a reversal of earlier findings of the
Harris Survey over the past year.
HARRIS SURVEY - May 22nd, 1972
- 4 -
With Wallace out of the race, Mr. Nixon holds a substantial but not decisive
7 to 8 point lead. This means that as of the second week in May, either Humphrey or
McGovern would be no farther behind than was Mr. Humphrey immediately following the
1968 Democratic convention, a gap he all but closed by Election Day. At the moment,
however, the momentum would appear to be moving with McGovern. The central question
is whether he can continue his surge or will level out in the precarious position
of Democratic front-runner.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, May 25th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
The upward surge in Sen. George McGovern's standing in the Harris Survey
is a classic test of the new politics versus the old.
The South Dakotan's strength is heavily geared toward forging a coalition
of independent voters, the college educated together with those of highest income,
the young, plus suburban residents. This would constitute a new, affluent center of
gravity in American politics.
The pattern of McGovern support in a general election shapes up as dramatically
different from that for his chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hubert Humphr
Humphrey's basic strength in his trial heat runs against President Nixon can be found
among lower income voters, the elderly, the less well educated and minority groups.
As reported last Monday, in two-way races against President Nixon, Sen. McGover
is now running 48-41 percent behind, while Sen. Humphrey is 50-42 percent behind.
Statistically, there is not much difference between 7 or 8 points. But the character
of the vote patterns of the two leading Democrats is decisively different.
Here is an analysis of the McGovern sources of strength in the latest Harris
Survey, taken between May 9-10 among 1,385 likely voters 18 years of age and over,
contrasted with Humphrey's showing among the same voters:
McGOVERN STRENGTHS VS. HUMPHREY
Total
Inde-
18-
$15M
Voters
pendents
29
& Over
%
%
%
%
Nixon-McGovern
Nixon
48
43
46
49
McGovern
41
42
48
43
Not sure
11
15
6
8
Nixon-Humphrey
Nixon
50
55
51
53
Humphrey
42
34
44
40
Not sure
8
11
5
7
The most decisive difference between the McGovern and Humphrey showings can
be found among the 20 percent of the voters who now call themselves independents.
McGovern trails the President by no more than a point among this swing group, while
Humphrey lags a full 21 points to the rear.
McGovern's run among young persons under 30 is not as strong as his backers
have claimed. He holds only a narrow 48-46 percent lead in a race against Mr. Nixon.
However, Humphrey trails among young people by 44-51 percent. Among the highest income
voters, McGovern is only 6 points behind, while Humphrey trails by 13 points.
By contrast, McGovern does far less well among precisely those segments of
the electorate where Humphrey makes his best showing:
HUMPHREY STRENGTHS VS. McGOVERN
Total
8th
Voters
Blacks
Grade
Dems
%
%
%
%
Nixon-Humphrey
Nixon
50
9
43
28
Humphrey
42
87
48
63
Not sure
8
4
9
9
Nixon-McGovern
Nixon
48
21
46
29
McGovern
41
62
37
59
Not sure
11
17
17
12
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 25th, 1972
- 3 -
Humphrey sweeps the black vote, which he won by 94-6 percent in 1968, by
almost as wide a margin today. McGovern as of now would lose as much as 21 percent
of the black vote to President Nixon.
Among voters whose education did not go beyond the eighth grade, Humphrey
holds a 5-point lead, while McGovern trails by 9 points. Among enrolled Democrats,
Humphrey is ahead by 35 percentage points, but McGovern by only 30.
These patterns, of course, have been evident in the spring primaries,
where Humphrey and McGovern have run against each other. But the likelihood is
that they will also carry over into the fall election, depending on whom the
Democrats finally nominate.
The pivotal question involved in determining who ultimately might be the
strongest Democratic nominee could boil down to this: can McGovern more easily pick up
the votes of the so-called Democratic "gut" vote than Humphrey can come back with the
more independent, better educated, higher income suburban vote?
While it is too early to tell, the chances at this writing would seem to
favor McGovern accomplishing a firming up of traditional Democratic votes over Humphrey
making inroads into the newer and fast-growing independent vote.
The striking part of the McGovern surge is that as of early May he has
obviously inherited almost the entire vote that before the primaries appeared to be
going to Sen. Edmund Muskie. Previously, Muskie appeared to be the only Democrat who
could give President Nixon a run in the suburbs and among high-income, affluent voters.
Now McGovern appears to have won that mantle.
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 25th, 1972
- 4 -
The reason for McGovern's success -- and probably Muskie's failure -- can
be traced to the fact that the better educated and younger voters in America are those
most committed to change. When Muskie took on the trappings of the establishment, he
faded in popularity among this change-seeking sector. McGovern has come on strong in
a campaign emphasizing that he is, above all else, a candidate committed to change in
America.
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS)
For Release: Friday AM, May 19th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
If Gov. George Wallace of Alabama were to become the Democratic Party nominee
for President, he would presently trail President Nixon by 59-24 percent in a two-way
contest, by far the largest margin behind among the current leaders in the Democratic
delegate count.
In a three-way race, matched against Mr. Nixon and former Sen. Eugene McCarthy
on an independent ticket, the Alabama Governor receives only 21 percent of the vote,
trailing McCarthy's 22 percent, and 26 points behind the President's 47 percent.
The commanding political fact about the Wallace candidacy is that he appears
to have attracted between 16 and 25 percent of the electorate as hard-core supporters,
but at the same time he has also firmed up close to 75 percent of the voters in solid
opposition to his becoming President.
Two months before the Democratic convention he does not shape up as a viable
candidate for the White House, either on a major-party or independent ticket. By the
same token, he is capable of amassing a substantial minority of the vote, which shows
to best advantage as a symbol of protest among a large field in the Presidential
primaries. The trend to watch in the weeks ahead will be George Wallace's threat as
a "spoilet," depending on the matchups which emerge from the major-party nominating
conventions.
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - May 19th, 1972
- 2
On May 9th and 10th, the Harris Survey visited approximately 2,250 households
and surveyed a sample of 1,385 likely voters 18 years and over. The cross section of
voters was asked:
"Suppose in 1972 for President it were between Richard Nixon, the Republican, Governor
George Wallace of Alabama for the Democrats, and Eugene McCarthy as an independent.
If you had to choose right now, whom would you be for?"
NIXON-WALLACE-McCARTHY RACE
Nixon
Wallace
McCarthy
Not Sure
%
%
%
%
Nationwide Voters
47
21
22
10
East
47
15
27
11
Midwest
50
18
21
11
South
44
38
12
6
West
51
14
27
8
Border States
46
33
14
7
Deep South
42
44
6
8
18-29-year-olds
44
15
35
6
30-49
49
21
22
8
50 and over
48
24
15
13
8th grade educated
41
31
13
15
High school
45
25
20
10
College
54
11
29
6
Even with the Democratic party nomination, Wallace would turn out to be almost
wholly a sectional candidate with his only chance of winning any electoral votes limited
to the South, and probably the four Deep South states at that. Even in Alabama, Mississippi.
Georgia, and Louisiana --- which he took in 1968 -- Gov. Wallace would be hard-pressed
this year by President Nixon.
These latest Harris Survey results also point up some significant changes which
have taken place in the pattern of Wallace backing since 1968. Much was made of Wallace's
appeal to young people four years ago, but today he runs weaker among the under-30 group
than with any other age bracket. In addition. the Alabom Governor's vote is largely
centered among those with no more than an eighth grade education, a shrinking proportion
of the electerate with a relatively poor percentage of turnout at the polls in a national
election.
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - May 19th, 1972
A direct, two-way test against President Nixon would find Wallace losing by
an even wider margin:
"Suppose this year for President, it were between Richard Nixon, the Republican, and
Gov. George Wallace of Alabama as the Democratic Party nominee, whom would you vote for?"
NIXON-WALLACE RACE
Nixon
Wallace
Not Sure
%
Nationwide Voters
59
24
17
East
59
18
23
Midwest
62
21
17
South
50
41
9
West
64
18
18
Border States
53
36
11
Deep South
45
46
9
In a Wallace-Nixon race, President Nixon would win by a landslide in every region
of the country, except the Deep South. As the Harris Survey will report next week, either
of the other main Democratic contenders, Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Sen. George McGovern,
would run far stronger than Gov. Wallace in pairings against the President.
These results also shed some significant light on the role which Gov. Wallace
has played in the 1972 Democratic primaries, where he has run surprisingly well in a
number of states. There is real evidence that many voters find it satisfying to register
a protest by casting votes for Wallace in a primary contest, only to turn around and vote
for someone else when it comes down to choosing the next President.
This latest Harris Survey also confirms clearly that Wallace does better in
a crowded, multiple candidate race than when he is pitted head-to-head against a single
opponent. The reason is evident: George Wallace has a solid minority of the electorate
for whom he is the first choice for President. He is likely to win this hard-core vote
no matter who is pitted against him. In primary contests where the front-runner of ten
polls less than a majority, and where large numbers of those who will vote next fall do
not participate, Wallace appears relatively stronger than under the conditions of an
actual Presidential election.
HARRIS SURVEY (BONUS) - May 19th, 1972
4 -
The ultimate reality about the Wallace candidacy emerges when he is pitted
by himself against another candidate for President. Under such a circumstance, the
Alabama Governor holds no more than one out of four voters. That is why George Wallace,
in the unlikely event he were to receive the Democratic nomination in 1972, shapes up
as a weak candidate to win in November. How much he is in a position to spoil the
chances of either Mr. Mixon or the Democrats, on the other hand, bears careful watching
as the summer conventions approach.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
X
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, May 15th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
When asked to rate the major candidates for President on their views toward
school busing to achieve racial balance, 30 percent of the public agrees with President
Nixon, 23 percent with George Wallace, and 14 percent with Hubert Humphrey. For Wallace
who is now up to 17 percent in the Harris Survey as a potential third-party candidate, :
score on the busing issue may be the forerunner of further gains.
Wallace has called for a Constitutional amendment outlawing busing of
school children to achieve racial balance. President Nixon has rejected an amendment
to the Constitution, but favors a moratorium of two years in enforcement of court-ordere
busing during which black schools would be upgraded with Federal help. Scn. Humphrey
first endorsed President Nixon's position and then, 48 hours later, changed his mind.
A Harris Survey recently asked a nationwide cross section of 2,973 households:
"If you had to choose, which one man would you most agree with on his stand
on busing school children to achieve racial balance -- Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey,
or George Wallace?"
HARRIS SURVEY -- May 15, 1972
MOST AGREE WITH ON EUSING
Not
Nixon
Wallace
Humphrey
Sure
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
30
23
14
33
East
32
14
18
36
Midwest
31
22
13
34
South
24
39
11
26
West
34
15
16
35
Black
16
8
40
36
White
32
26
11
31
Union members
27
26
15
32
Although Wallace's position on busing is supported most in the South (rising
to 54 percent agreement in the Deep South), he is obviously crowding President Nixon on
the issue among whites and among union members. Sen. Humphrey's less than unequivocal
stand on busing has left him with less than normal support from blacks on this issue.
He appears to have reaped the worst of all worlds by his backing and filling on the
busing question.
The basic lineup of the public on the political meaning of the busing issue did
not alter appreciably when the identity of the potential Democratic candidate was changed
When Sen. George McGovern was substituted for Humphrey, the results showed
much the same pattern:
MOST AGREE WITH ON BUSING
Total
Public
%
Nixon
28
Wallace
20
McGovern
11
Not sure
41
HARRIS SURVEY - May 15, 1972
-3-
The busing issue works most intensively in generating voter preferences for
Gov. Wallace. The correlation is illustrated by the following results:
VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
%
%
%
On busing agree with:
Nixon
52
17
9
Wallace
16
13
73
Humphrey
3
35
2
Not sure
29
35
16
Mr. Nixon's weakness on the busing issue is ilustrated by the fact that 1-in-8
of his supporters prefer Wallace's position, while no more than a bare majority like his
stand the best. Sen. Humphrey is in even worse shape, with 17 percent of his backers
preferring the Nixon position and another 13 percent the Wallace stand on busing.
Scarcely more than 1-in-3 Humphrey voters agree with his approach on busing. By contrast
a massive 73 percent of Wallace's supporters agree with him on the busing issue.
One of the ironies of the busing issue is that the proportion of Americans who
nonetheless say they still favor desegregation of the public school system remains a
58-32 percent majority, even though people also oppose busing by 79-14 percent. When
the vote of the majority in favor of desegregation is analyzed, the results are
significant:
HARRIS SURVEY - May 15, 1972
IMPACT OF ATTITUDE ON SCHOOL DESEGREGATION ON VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
On School Desegregation:
-
Favor
Oppose
(58%)
(32%)
%
%
Voting for:
Nixon
40
39
Humphrey
39
31
Wallace
12
22
Not sure
9
8
In 1968, George Wallace's vote rose to a high of 21 percent as a third-party
candidate, closely approximating the 22 percent he achieves among people opposed to
desegregation of the schools. But then a reaction set in against Wallace and he dropped
to 13 percent in three weeks.
The racial issue is like an elastic band and when there appears to be overkil
in ONE direction OT the other, the public shaps back in the other direction.
This spring's uproar over school busing could produce a counter reaction by
voting time next November. But at the moment, Gov. Wallace is making the most of it.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, May 11th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Sen. Edmund Muskie peaked a year ago in April when he lead Richard Nixon
by 47-39 percent, but when he withdrew as an active candidate in the Presidential
primaries exactly 12 months later, his standing with voters had receded to a point
where the Maine Senator was trailing the incumbent in the White House by a substantial
44-33 percent.
The sharp decline in Muskie's standing in the polls can be traced to two
separate but critical developments: 1.) By his dramatic efforts to open up a new
era in U.S.-Communist bloc relations, President Nixon robbed Muskie of his former
favored position among independents, suburban residents, higher-income, and college-
educated voters; 2.) In his own campaigning, the Maine Senator was not able to
articulate the fundamental bread-and-butter issues against the Administration at
a time when the public was still worried about unemployment and high prices.
As a consequence, Muskie failed in the primaries and can no longer
claim that he would make the strongest race against President Nixon if nominated by
his party's convention in July. Muskie's last remaining hope is that he might turn
out to be a bridge if a deadlock developed between Sen. Hubert Humphrey and
Sen. George McGovern. But without a more convincing run against the President than
he now makes in the trial heats in the polls, Sen. Muskie stands the risk of being
counted out even before the Democrats convene in Miami Beach.
( more )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 11, 1972
Here is the trend of Muskie-Nixon-Wallace trial heats as recorded by the
Harris Survey over the past three years:
MUSKIE-NIXON-WALLACE TREND
Muskie
Nixon
Wallace
Not Sure
%
%
%
%
April, 1972
33
44
15
8
March
35
47
12
6
February
40
44
11
5
January
42
42
11
5
November, 1971
39
43
11
7
September
35
47
11
7
August
41
43
12
4
June
42
40
11
7
May
42
40
11
7
April
47
39
11
3
February
44
39
12
5
January
43
40
11
6
November, 1970
46
40
10
4
September
43
43
10
4
May
38
42
12
8
April
36
47
10
7
February
35
49
11
5
, November, 1969
35
49
11
5
October
35
51
9
5
May
35
51
11
3
Since last January when he was running dead even with Mr. Nixon, Sen. Muskie
has dropped a full 9 points, although, ironically, the President has picked up only
2 points in his column. The biggest gainer has been George Wallace who has jumped
from 11 to 15 percent in this three-way matchup. At 33 percent Muskie is lower than
at any time since this survey first listed him in a Presidential poll in May of 1969.
A revealing insight can be gained by comparing key groups' backing of Muskie
from April of 1971, his high-water mark, to one year later, when he hit his lowest ebb
CHANGE IN MUSKIE VOTE BY KEY GROUPS
April
April
1972
1971
Change
%
%
%
Nationwide
33
47
-14
East
40
53
-13
Midwest
34
45
-11
South
22
41
-19
West
35
47
-12
Cities
41
56
-15
Suburbs
35
47
-12
Towns
26
44
-18
Rural
26
34
- 8
18-29
38
48
-10
30-49
34
49
-15
50+
29
42
-13
8th grade
35
41
- 6
High school
34
42
- 8
College
31
51
-20
Men
31
47
-16
Women
35
46
-11
Blacks
58
64
- 6
Whites
31
45
-14
Under $5000
31
43
-12
$5000-9999
35
43
- 8
$10000-14999
30
44
-14
$15000 and over
32
52
-20
Catholics
40
50
-10
Republicans
8
18
-10
Democrats
50
67
-17
Independents
29
41
-12
Union
40
49
- 9
Sen. Muskie a year ago was the only Democrat to hold a decisive lead over
President Nixon among the key college-educated and affluent voting segments who have
grown from 11 to 20 percent of the electorate in just four years. But in one year's
time he has slipped 20 points with both groups. By the same token, President Nixon's
positive rating among this key elite, independent voting group for his performance
in "working for peace" has soared from 43 to 71 percent. Sen. Muskie's appeal among
the affluent finally dissolved with Mr. Nixon's trip to China and the announcement
of his journey to Moscow.
(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 11, 1972
- 4 -
At the same time, Sen. Muskie had also slipped among enrolled Democrats,
particularly those in cities and in small towns. He did not seem to be able to
connect with the bread-and-butter vote at precisely the time disenchantment with
the Nixon Administration on this score was rising in 1972.
As the late President Kennedy said after he failed to win a decisive win
in the Wisconsin primary in 1960, "Any front-runner who walks on eggs is doomed."
Sen. Muskie confirmed this observation in 1972.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, May 8th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
If blacks, low-income whites, and young people were to vote their full
numbers at the ballot box, Sen. Edward Kennedy would run the strongest race of any
leading Democrat against President Nixon. Among the entire population 18 years of
age and over, Kennedy trails Nixon by four percentage points -- 41-to-37 percent --
with Gov. George Wallace as a third-party nominee at 15 percent. By contrast, Sen.
Hubert Humphrey runs behind by six, 41-35 percent, Sen. Edmund Muskie by eight,
42-34 percent, and Sen. George McGovern by 45-28 percent.
Even with Sen. Kennedy as the nominee, however, it is extremely unlikely,
judging on past performances, that blacks, low-income whites, and young people would
vote their, full potential next November. When those least likely to voie are eliminate
Sen. Kennedy slips behind Mr. Nixon by a full 10 points: 45-to-35 percent, with
Wallace at 14 percent.
Here are the results of trial heats in early April among a sample of 2,973
households representative of the entire population 18 years of age and over and the
parallel results among just those likely to go to the polls next November:
HARRIS SURVEY - May 8, 1972
TOTAL ELIGIBLE VS. LIKELY VOTERS
Total
Likely
Eligible
Voters
%
%
Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace
Nixon
41
45
Kennedy
37
35
Wallace
15
14
Not sure
7
6
Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace
Nixon
41
42
Humphrey
35
36
Wallace
17
16
Not sure
7
6
Nixon-Muskie-Wallace
Nixon
41
44
Muskie
33
33
Wallace
16
15
Not sure
10
8
Nixon-McGovern-Wallace
Nixon
45
47
McGovern
28
29
Wallace
17
16
Not sure
10
8
As the vote is winnowed down from a potential 100 percent of those 18 and
over to a more likely 65 percent, the big loser in the process of attrition is Sen.
Kennedy. Here are the reasons why:
--- Young persons 18-29 years of age now make up 28 percent of the population
eligible to vote, but likely will be no more than 24 percent of the actual electorate
in November, based on present registration totals and past turnout. Kennedy wins
this segment 48-33 percent with Wallace at 12 percent. Slippage among the young
who do not turn out to vote on Election Day could cost Kennedy 1.5 points of his suppor
--- Blacks make up 11 percent of the population, but at best will be 9 percent
of the actual electorate, based on past turnout and voting restrictions still in effect.
Kennedy holds a wide, 79-14 percent lead among blacks. The failure of blacks to vote
their full numbers in November could cost Kennedy another 2.5 points.
--- Low-income voters are 25 percent of the potential but are likely to be
no more than 21 percent of the actual voters come Election Day. Kennedy leads with
the group with income under $5,000, by 46-40 percent. He loses almost another point
here when his vote percentage is adjusted for decreased turnout.
In contrast, running against Sen. Kennedy, President Nixon picks up real
ground because of the likelihood that certain key groups ready to back him will turn
out at the polls at a high rate.
-- Persons earning $15,000 and over, although only 20 percent of the whole
population, are expected to make up 23 percent of the actual voters next November.
Mr. Nixon wins this group against Sen. Kennedy by a wide 57-29 percent margin. Among
the most affluent, the President thus adds more than 1.5 points to his lead over
Kennedy because of high turnout.
----- Suburban voters are 26 percent of the total population 18 years of age
and older, but will comprise an estimated 28 percent of the electorate next fall.
President Nixon holds a 51-33 percent edge among suburbanites over the Massachusetts
Senator. He gains another point here.
The story on Sen. Kennedy is that of all the Democratic field he certainly
could generate the most enthusiasm among the young, the blacks, and low-income whites.
Whereas Humphrey loses the vote of the under-30 segment by 40-34 percent and McGovern
by a closer 39-37 percent, Kennedy sweeps the young.
(more)
HARRIS SURVEY -- May 8, 1972
-4-
But Kennedy also has some glaring weaknesses. He runs relatively poorly
among the college educated, losing to Nixon 56-29 percent. He also flounders among
voters 50 and over, losing by 50-28 percent, more than offsetting his gains among the
young. He is also relatively weak among Jewish voters, giving away 35 percent of
this group to the opposition, as against 21 percent who would vote Republican if
Humphrey were the candidate.
These might be troubles enough for the last remaining Kennedy brother in a
bid for the White House in 1972. But his single biggest handicap as a candidate will
be that it is precisely among those groups where his appeal is greatest --- blacks,
low-income whites, and the young -- where the turnout is likely to be lowest. And
among the groups where his appeal is weakest -- the suburbs, the affluent, the college
educated -- the turnout on Election Day is likely to be highest.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To:
Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, May 4th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
If he holds his current wide lead over his prospective Democratic opponents
in the polls until November, President Nixon might well prove that an incumbent in
the White House can achieve re-election in the absence of broad-based enthusiasm for
his personal appeal.
In the most recent Harris Survey among a sizable cross section of 2,973 households,
there was much public sympathy for Mr. Nixon's burdens in the most difficult job in the
world. The President is also widely admired for having the courage to take decisive
action, even in a direction 180 degrees opposite from views he has held for many years.
But on the personal dimension, President Nixon has never been able to approach
the public esteem usually bestowed upon occupants of the White House at some high point
of their Administrations.
By 49-40 percent, a plurality of the public agrees with the statement
that President Nixon does not inspire enough confidence as a President should." This
result has scarcely wavered over the past year. Last August, people felt the same way
by a margin of 50-40 percent.
By 44-42 percent, a narrow plurality of the public also agrees that Mr. Nixon
"is lacking in personal warmth and color." Eight months ago, the public registered the
same view, by 46-45 percent.
By 44-43 percent, a razor-thin plurality also feels that President Nixon
is often uncertain and wishy-washy in what he stands for." Back in August of 1971,
the public was likewise evenly divided on this score, at 45-45 percent.
is PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 4, 1972
- 2 -
------ On one count, nevertheless, a clear plurality of the people turn down a
charge which some of the critics have leveled against the President: by 47-35 percent,
voters deny that Mr. Nixon "is so eager to be popular that he's willing to change his
stand from what he always stood for just to be popular."
Three substantial elements are working favorably as far as the public's
estimation of the President is concerned, but all have more to do with his policies
than his personality:
----- By 82-12 percent, a lopsided majority of the public agrees with the
statement that Mr. Nixon "inherited a lot of problems and is trying to solve them
the best he can." Back in August, a comparable 85-12 percent agreed. There is little
doubt that most Americans sympathize with the difficulties of being President during
this period of the nation's history.
By 75 14 percent, better than three out of four people respect the
President because "he's not afraid to take decisive action, as in the wage-price freeze
and in taking his trip to China." These two episodes have stood Mr. Nixon in good stead
and it is a fairly safe assumption that they will be heard about time and again during
the political campaign in the fall.
----- By 58-24 percent, better than a two-to-one majority of the public agrees
with the assessment of the President that "he is experienced and smart, especially in
foreign affairs." Last August, the majority who felt the same way came to 57-26 percent.
However, President Nixon has had difficulty turning around public opinion on one
score which is likely to become a political issue in the fall -- the question of whether or
not he has fulfilled his 1968 campaign promises:
Howard
THE WHITE HOUSE
4/15
WASHINGTON
4/10/72
Gordon: I called Harris and got the following
info.
The busing stuff that came out last week was
done in early March - before speech. They
will have some new busing stuff soon -- just
FU
finishing -- Harris is going to call Chuck
Wed. with more dope.
Harris took a poll Feb. 28 - March 6 the one
before that was early Feb. -- He , as I said,
just finished one and will have figures later this
week.
Joan Hall
is PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 4, 1972
- 3 -
--- By a narrow 40-39 percent, a slim plurality of the public believes that
Richard Nixon "has kept most of the promises he made in 1968. Back in August, the
balance was somewhat the other way, with a 44-37 percent plurality feeling he had not
kept his promises. Thus, the President has made some eight points progress over the past
eight months on fulfilling his pledges of four years ago.
Taken as a whole, the American people express a good deal of sympathy with
the magnitude of the President's task. They give him high marks for taking decisive action
during the wage-price freeze and in deciding to go to China, and recognize him as an
experienced hand in government, especially in foreign policy. But his problem areas
surround the personal dimension of the office.
He clearly does not cast the kind of spell that his Republican predecessor,
Sen. Dwight Eisenhower, did over the office. Back in the 1950's, people were far
less concerned with the specifics of the Eisenhower record and held a rather sublime
faith that the President could be trusted personally in nearly any situation.
With Richard Nixon, it is apparent he must make it on specific accomplishments
or not at all. He appears to be a current beneficiary of a situation within the
Democratic Party where no front-runner has demonstrated an electric quality of
charismatic appeal.
is PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - May 4, 1972
4
The cross section of 2,973 households was asked between April 1st and 7th:
Let me read you some statements about President Nixon. For each, tell me if you tend
to agree or disagree. 11
NIXON PROFILE
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
%
%
%
Positive
He inherited a lot of tough problems and is
trying his best to solve them.
April, 1972
82
12
6
August, 1971
85
12
3
He is not afraid to take decisive action, as
in the wage-price freeze or the trip to China
April, 1972
76
14
10
August, 1971
74
17
9
He is experienced and smart, especially in
foreign affairs
April, 1972
58
24
18
August, 1971
55
28
17
He has kept most of the promises he made
in 1968
April, 1972
40
39
21
August, 1971
37
44
19
Negative
He does not inspire confidence as a President
should
April, 1972
49
40
11
August, 1971
50
40
10
He is lacking in personal color and warmth
April, 1972
44
42
14
August, 1971
46
45
9
He's often uncertain and wishy-washy in what
he stands for
April, 1972
44
43
13
August, 1971
45
45
10
He's so eager to be popular he's willing to
change his stand from what he always stood for
April, 1972
35
47
18
August, 1971 (NOT ASKED)
X
X
X
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
PA Louis Harris
tensive TV coverage of the he feels that these
1.1 he has her 11,0
early primaries is unusually
hbered
relared cand to
high.
No.r'v even: 211 ..'
I's 155 Lace for Pre-dent,
Turnin : the question
electorate tends 1.)
only DAY are 150 Am-11 n
around. **her sim streat-
we (*** "Day"
1.. "pning to 111. he
ity. 2826 per cent SONS that
to they minds about Sen.
who d.s. 50
McGovern "has a flat, unin-
Aorre
George \ Govern 01 South
cent. The colle e educated
teresting per-onality."
Diketa Their impres- ons
tend to be critical of
Positive
Young people take excep-
of McGovern are more 1.0-1-
tion to such a statement by
Govern for being overly 111-
tive than no_ative, but 1." P
only 33-2 per cent. The im-
eral by a lesser
numbers of voters. as many
portant college-educated
cent mm in. Labor union
25 four or five out of every
group age: es that McGovern
members. on the other hand.
for have not yet focused at-
lacks personal excitement
are more concerned than
41
19
Um on on him.
by 34-33 per cent.
the veneral public the
is
27
47
(ii) the positive side. two
As McGovern takes his
McGovern IS an "extremis"."
quartes have coine to demi-
stands to the people. be is
by 3421 3/ cent.
111' bablic thanking about
becomit as the left.
In
13
the
0.91
concerdate
1
S.
Comm
By 51-9 per cent. a ma-
point G" d Whil Mr-
P
111
Pr
4;
jer : of Americans 18 Mais
Govern's position on the pu-
ar ( 1. " arrees with the
litical spectrum was exain-
tor has 10200
my that McGovern
ined:
The are n of
13
"I 1.. courage to -2y
By 29-20 per cent, the pub-
ing housenolus has ded:
21
WI be thinks. even if it IS
will \mong persons
un 59, this admiration
PM is 33 pr cent. Among
the better informed. more
of ... collone-educated
croup it increases, to 61 per
SCII, on an overall
5.000. 40 per cent is not yet
ab'. 10 answer such a nues-
1100 regarding McGovern
one way or the other.
By 41-19 per cent. a
cross section of voters be-
heves that he "deserves a
lot of credit for being
acainst the Vietnam war be-
fore others were." This sen-
time nt increases among the
yours. the college educated,
and independent VOICES.
A larger than usual cross
section of 2.973 how-eholds,
int eviewed between a A,-11
apt 7. yielde the " I'v ats
on the impact of the . le-
Govern personality:
2720 per cent. only a
s:
primary of the public
:
- 1 MeGoven "has
a expeading mon-
n' Twin 25.7 the
person :: resue
1. twelv by 1.22
;
cent. Among the
the
" onal appeal comes
1. ench .........................
The numbers wholey-
no optnion Biler CX-
To; Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, April 13th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
This is a political year, where issues more than personalities are
likely to make a decisive difference.
A special analysis by the Harris Survey points up these cutting
edges of key issues in the presidential race:
The school busing issue is helping both President Nixon and
Gov. George Wallace in about equal proportions, but is definitely hurting the
leading Democratic contenders for the nomination.
Continued public worries over the slowness of recovery of the
economy is hurting President Nixon and helping the Democrats but not Wallace.
Public impatience over the rate at which U.S. troops are being
brought back from Vietnam is hurting Mr. Nixon and helping his potential
Democratic opponents.
On the school busing issue, the Harris Survey reported this week
that the American people stand in opposition to busing "to achieve racial
balance" by a decisive margin of 73 to 20 percent. When this division is
analyzed according to how it affects potential pairings in this fall's election,
a significant pattern emerges nationwide:
(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - April 13, 1972
-2-
POSITION ON BUSING
Vote For:
Favor
Oppose
%
%
Nixon
34
49
Muskie
49
27
Wallace
4
15
Not Sure
13
9
Nixon
36
52
Humphrey
56
28
Wallace
5
16
Not Sure
3
4
Clearly, if school busing were the dominant issue in a three-way
election this fall, the electorate would divide sharply. Those in favor of
busing go heavily Democratic, while those opposed vote much more for President Nixon
or Gov. George Wallace.
However, even among those opposed to busing, Wallace is unable to come
up with more than 15 to 16 percent of their vote, compared to his current nationwide
average as a third-party candidate of 12 percent. By the same token, Richard
Nixon wins between 49 and 52 percent of the vote of the anti-busing group, compared
with his current nationwide total of 47 to 48 percent. Thus, the busing issue
gives Wallace an extra 3 to 4 points and the President an added 2 to 4 points,
depending on his Democratic opponent.
The significant fact about the busing question, however, is that both
the Nixon and Wallace gains on the issue are taken entirely from the Democratic
candidates, who lose 7 to 8 points among persons opposed to busing for racial
balance. And with the division in the country 73 to 30 percent in opposition, it is
more than evident that school busing at this point in time is hurting Democratic
chances of winning the White House next November.
( more )
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - April 13, 1972
-3-
By the same token, however, the economic issue is still working
against the President and for the Democrats. In the latest Harris Survey,
by 49 to 34 percent. most people still think the country is in a recession, even
though economists insist the nation left the recession behind over a year ago.
The difference between people believing there is or is not a recession
around election time could have an important bearing on the final outcome:
POSITION ON RECESSION
Yes
No
Vote For:
%
%
Nixon
35
60
Muskie
43
21
Wallace
12
12
Not Sure
10
7
Nixon
39
63
Humphrey
45
22
Wallace
13
13
Not Sure
3
2
Among the 34 percent of the electorate who are convinced the economic
recession is over, President Nixon is an easy winner. But among the larger 49
percent who think there still is a recession, Mr. Nixon runs 6 to 8 points behind
his leading potential Democratic opponents. Interestingly enough, Wallace's
vote does not appear to be affected by the economic issue, despite the fact that
he has stressed the economic plight of the voter in his campaigning.
Finally, on the question of withdrawal of troops from Vietnam, the
X
Harris Survey shows that 43 percent think the pace is "too slow" and an almost
identical 44 percent see the rate as "about right," a close division.
Politically, the pace of troop withdrawal issue divides the electorate decisively:
(more)
-4-
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS - April 13, 1972
PACE OF TROOP WITHDRAWAL
Too
About
Slow
Right
Vote For:
%
%
Nixon
26
66
Muskie
47
19
Wallace
14
9
Not Sure
13
6
Nixon
33
65
Humphrey
46
24
Wallace
16
9
Not Sure
5
2
These results clearly demonstrate how much President Nixon has to
gain or lose by his ability to resolve American involvement in Vietnam by election
time. If voters think he has been laggard in liquidating U.S. troop involvement,
he could be in real trouble. But if he has defused the issue, he will have clear
sailing. It is apparent, however, from this evidence that Vietnam is still very
much alive as a political issue seven months before election day.
As important as any one of these issues, of course, is what the
mix of issues will be as the campaign unfolds, particularly in September and
October. If any one of the three reported on is front and center, then the
result can be affected in quite different ways. In many ways this year, then,
the issues rather than the men could well be decisive in the outcome of the
presidential election.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
To: Chicago Tribur. -::ev York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 Past 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, April 20th, 1972
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Since the last Presidential election, American voters have become considerably
less willing to describe their political philosophy as "conscrvative."
In 1968, 37 percent classified themselves that way. Today, four years
later, the number who report they are right-of-center has dropped to 29 percent.
A plurality of Americans, 35 percent, now prefer to be characterized as "middle-
of-the-road".
With this apparent shift of political gravity toward the center, President
Nisson is now viewed as more conservative than the general public rates itself.
On the other hand, two would-be Democratic opponents, Sen. Hubert Humphrey and
Sen. Edmund Muskie, are seen as more liberal, or left-of-center, than the average
American.
Far outside the mainstream, Gov. George Wallace of Alabama is looked upon
as a "radical" by an even 50 percent of the public. There has been little
perceptible shift in the way voters size up Wallace's base political set since
1968, when 52 percent described his philosophy as "radical."
A recent Harris Survey among 1,604 households asked a cross section this
question:
(more)
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSTS April 20, 1972
"how would you describe your own political philosophy --- as conservative,
middle-of-the-road, liberal, or radical?"
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY OF PUBLIC
1972
1968
%
%
Conservative
29
37
Middle-of-the-road
35
31
Liberal
19
17
Radical
4
2
Not sure
13
13
The most decisive divisions in political philosophy can be found when
voters are assessed by the key dimensions of age and party affiliation. Younger
persons tend to be far more liberal and radical, while their elders are much more
conservative. By the same token, Republican party members are more conservative,
while Democrats and Independents are more liberal:
POLITICAL PIIILOSOPHY BY KEY GROUPS
Middle-
Conser-
of-the-
Lib-
Rad-
vative
Road
eral
ical
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
29
35
19
4
By Age
18-20
15
34
26
11
21-29
20
30
26
7
30-49
30
36
19
3
50 and over
38
37
11
2
By Party
Democratic
26
34
22
4
Republican
44
34
10
2
Independent
21
40
23
7
In every group, the middle-of-the-roaders hold the balance of power
between the liberals and radicals on one side and the conservatives on the other.
Conservatism has clearly made relatively little inroad among voters under 30.
Much the same can be said about liberals among those 50 years of age and over.
It is significant, moreover, that 11 percent of the new voters in the 18-20-year-old
category view themselves as "radicals."
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS *** April 20, 1972
- 3 -
The most telling division, however, energes when preferences for president
this fall are analyzed according to the political philosophies of voters:
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE PREFERENCE
BY POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Middle-
Conser-
of-the-
Lib-
Rad-
vative
Road
eral
ical
%
%
%
%
Voting for:
Nixon
62
52
27
27
Humphrey
25
36
59
40
Wallace
12
9
10
30
Not sure
1
3
4
3
For example, President Nixon sweeps the conservative vote against both
Humphrey and Wallace. Significantly, Wallace does not attain any higher level among
conservatives than he does among the entire electorate ----- 12 percent.
Sen. Humphrey, as the Democratic standard-bearer, wins the liberal vote by
almost as decisive a margin as Mr. Nixon carries the conservatives. Humphrey also
takes the radical vote, but his chief rival among this small, extremc group is more
Gov. Wallace than President Nixon.
The balance of power clearly rests with middle-of-the-road voters, the
largest group today at 35 percent. Among this moderate group, the President
wins the day handily by a 52-36 percent margin over Sen. Humphrey. Significantly,
Wallace does poorest among this moderate segment of the electorate.
Talk that America has turned more conservative in recent years simply is
not borneout by these results. By the same token, those who would claim an
emerging liberal-radical majority have a long way to 80 before even approximating
any dominance in American politics.
( more )
-
April
20,
1972
- 4 -
In 1972, at least, the battle will be over the middle-of-the-road group,
where Richard Xixon now holds a substantial lead. However, Mr. Nixon can vie for
the centrist vote only after consolidating his conservative base. Any Democratic
candidate, on the other hand, must have solid backing from the left-of-center groups
before gains from the center can have any meaning. By itself, paradoxically, a
strictly centrist position appeals only to a minority of the coalition needed to
achieve a national political victory in 1972.
#
#
#
(Copyright: 1972 Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
World Rights Reserved)
GALLUP AND HARRIS TRIAL HEATS
1968 - 1972
RNC RESEARCH DIVISION
MARCH 28, 1972
GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1968
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
October 31, 1968
42%
40%
14%
4%
October 17, 1968
44
36
15
5
October 3, 1968
43
31
20
6
September 27, 1968
44
29
20
7
September 20, 1968
43
28
21
8
September 3, 1968
43
31
19
7
August 21, 1968
45
29
18
8
July 20, 1968
40
38
16
6
June 29, 1968
35
40
16
9
June 15, 1968
37
42
14
7
May 25, 1968
36
42
14
8
May 4, 1968
39
36
14
11
April 6, 1968
43
34
9
14
NIXON
McCARTHY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
August 21, 1968
42%
37%
16%
5%
July 20, 1968
41
36
16
7
June 29, 1968
36
39
18
7
June 15, 1968
39
41
14
6
May 25, 1968
40
38
13
9
May 4, 1968
39
37
14
10
April 6, 1968
41
38
10
11
NIXON
KENNEDY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
April 6, 1968
41%
38%
10%
11%
HARRIS SURVEY
-
TRIAL HEATS 1968
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
November 1, 1968
42%
40%
12%
6%
October 27, 1968
40
37
16
7
October 9, 1968
40
35
18
7
September 27, 1968
44
29
20
7
September 20, 1968
43
28
21
8
September 11, 1968
39
31
21
9
September 3, 1968
43
31
19
7
August 24, 1968
40
34
17
9
July 25, 1968
36
41
16
7
July 6, 1968
35
37
17
11
June 11, 1968
36
43
13
8
May, 1968
36
38
13
13
-2-
HARRIS SURVEY - TRIAL HEATS 1968 CONT.
NIXON
KENNEDY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
May, 1968
40%
38%
14%
8%
April, 1968
35
41
8
16
March, 1968
39
44
10
7
NIXON
McCARTHY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
August 24, 1968
41%
35%
16%
8%
July 26, 1968
35
43
15
7
July 8, 1968
34
42
16
8
June 10, 1968
36
44
12
8
Late May, 1968
40
39
14
7
Early May, 1968
37
40
13
10
March, 1968
43
34
14
9
HARRIS SURVEYS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972
NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE TREND
NIXON
MUSKIE
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
44%
40%
11%
5%
January, 1972
42
42
11
5
November, 1971
43
39
11
7
September, 1971
47
35
11
7
August, 1971
43
41
12
4
June, 1971
40
42
13
5
May, 1971
40
42
11
7
April, 1971
39
47
11
3
February, 1971
39
44
12
5
January, 1971
40
43
11
6
November, 1970
40
46
10
4
September, 1970
43
43
10
4
May, 1970
42
38
12
8
April, 1970
47
36
10
7
February, 1970
49
35
11
5
November, 1969
49
35
11
5
October, 1969
51
35
9
5
May, 1969
51
35
11
3
NIXON-MUSKIE RACE TREND
NIXON
MUSKIE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
47%
45%
8%
January, 1972
45
48
7
November, 1971
48
43
9
September, 1971
50
40
10
-3-
NIXON - MUSKIE RACE TREND CONT.
NIXON
MUSKIE
NOT SURE
August, 1971
47%
45%
8%
June, 1971
46
46
8
April, 1971
44
50
6
February, 1971
42
48
10
January, 1971
46
49
5
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE TREND
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
March, 1972
48%
35%
12%
5%
February, 1972
47
36
12
5
January, 1972
46
37
12
5
November, 1971
45
36
12
7
September, 1971
45
36
12
7
May, 1971
44
39
10
7
April, 1971
42
41
13
4
November, 1970
46
39
11
4
April, 1970
50
36
11
3
November, 1969
48
37
12
3
November, 1968 (actual
.
vote)
44
43
13
-
GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972
TREND SINCE 1969
NIXON
MUSKIE
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
43%
42%
10%
5%
January 7-10, 1972
43
42
12
3
November 19-22, 1971
44
41
10
5
October 8-11
43
35
13
9
August 20-23
42
36
11
11
May 7-10
39
41
12
8
March 12-14
43
39
12
6
January 9-10
44
44
9
3
December 5-6, 1970
44
43
9
4
June 19-22
43
36
13
8
January 30-February 2
47
35
13
5
September 12-15, 1969
49
34
11
6
-4-
GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972 CONT.
NIXON
KENNEDY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
47%
39%
9%
5%
November, 1971
44
41
10
5
August, 1971
43
38
10
9
May, 1971
42
41
10
7
March, 1971
46
38
11
5
January, 1971
47
38
9
6
December, 1970
47
37
11
5
January, 1970
49
35
11
5
September, 1969
53
31
10
6
July, 1969
52
36
9
3
April, 1969
52
33
10
7
NIXON
HUMPHREY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
46%
39%
10%
5%
November, 1971
47
37
12
4
August, 1971
43
37
11
9
May, 1971
42
39
12
7
March, 1971
46
36
12
6
January, 1971
48
38
10
4
April, 1970
50
32
11
7
February, 1970
54
34
12
X
January, 1970
50
33
13
4
September, 1969
53
33
11
3
NIXON
LINDSAY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
53%
29%
12%
6%
August, 1971
45
30
12
13
December, 1970
48
35
12
5
June, 1970
46
29
15
10
NIXON
McGOVERN
WALLACE
NOT SURE
February, 1972
49%
34%
11%
6%
November, 1971
49
33
12
6
NIXON
McCARTHY
WALLACE
NOT SURE
January, 1970
55%
24%
12%
9%
From: Chicago Tribune New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y, 10017
Fills
HARRIS SURVEY
For Release: Monday AM, July12th, 1971
Not Before
By Louis Harris
President Nixon leads Senator Edward Kennedy by 44 to 36 percent among
likely voters in the 1972 election with Governor George Wallace on a third-
party ticket taking 13 percent of the vote. Two years after the tragedy of
Chappaquiddick (July 18, .1969), Mr. Nixon would sweep three out of four regions
of the country against the Massachusetts Senator, losing only Senator Kennedy's
home area of the East.
Between June 9 and 15, a national cross section of likely voters in
1614 households was asked:
"Suppose the 1972 election for President were being held today and you had to
choose right now --- would you vote for Richard Nixon, the Republican, Senator
Edward Kennedy, the Democrat, or Covernor George Wallace, the Independent?" and
"(If "Not Sure") Well, if you had to say, would you lean toward Nixon, the
Republican, Kennedy the Democrat, or Wallace, the Independent?"
NIXON-KERNEDY-WALLACE RACE
Total
Likely
Voters
%
Nixon
44
Kennedy
36
Wallace
13
Not Sure
7
These results come on the hecls of Harris Survey findings which
showed Sen. Kennedy moving into first place among Democrats as the preferred
choice for the party's nomination in 1972. And they point up a basic fact about
Kennedy's prospects for the presidency next year: he has pockets of real
strength among blacks, the young, Catholics, and labor union members. Among
nase voters, BC this LIKE 12186 choice LV SUCCELO riceased Nixon IN the whiTE
House,
But the basic Kennedy weakness is that he falls far short of approaching
majority support in the country as a whole, and, in fact, tends to polarize
voters outside of the big cities. Independent voters, persons over 50, and the
growingly important college-educated group are solidly against him,
Thus, it is fair to conclude that Scn. Edward Kennedy would make a
far stronger showing at this point in time in a Democratic primary, where The
would not be subject to the opposition of Republican and Independent voters
and could be the beneficiary of a selective turnout on the part of those
groups who fiercely support him. But in a general election situation, he would
be carrying heavy' handicaps which could cripple his chances of winning the White
House.
The results also indicate that Sen. Kennedy, just over a year away
from the Democratic convention, is essentially a one-region candidate:
NIXON-KENNEDY-WALLACE BY REGION
Mid-
East west South West
%
%
%
%
Nixon
39
47
42
51
Kennedy
43
38
23
39
Wallace
7
8
28
6
Not Sure
11
7
7
4
Senator Kennedy would run 9 to 19 points behind in all regions
except the East, where he is ahead by four percentage points.
The divisions by age and education are equally decisive:
CONTEST ANALYZED BY AGE, EDUCATION
Kenn- Wall- Not
Nixon edy ace Sure
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
44
36
13
7
By Age
18-29
37
45
14
4
30-49
41
37
12
10
50 and over
54
27
12
7
By Education
8th grade or less
31
39
19
cut OFF
11
High School
College
40
38
15
7
HARRIS SURVEI - July 16, 1771
Kennedy carries the vote of young people and also those whose education
never went beyond the eighth grade. But he is edged out among the middle-aged
and those who received a high school education, lic is literally swamped by
voters over 50 and with some college education,
The Massachusetts Senator also divides the electorate sharply by
race and by religion:
CONTEST ANALYZED BY RACE, RELIGION
Nix-
Kenn-
Wall-
Not
on
edy
ace
Sure
%
%
%
%
Nationwide
44
36
13
7
By Race
White
48
33
14
7
Black
13
71
2
14
By Religion
Protestant
56
23
16
5
Catholic
35
48
9
8
Kennedy would do better among black voters than any other Democrat
prominantly mentioned in the running today. However, he would lose the majority
white vote by a margin of 17 points. Similarly, he would carry his co-reli-
gionist Catholics by 13 points, but would lose the more numerous Protestants by
a thumping 33 points.
As a candidate, Senator Edward Kennedy would divide the country
more sharply than at any time in recent political history, even more than
when his older brother, John F. Kennedy, ran in 1960, People tend to vote for
or against Sen, Kennedy, but with substantially more on the negative than positive
side at this time.
On Thursday, the Harris Survey will analyze what the people think
of Senator Kennedy, his problem with the Chappaquiddick issue, the impact of his
record in the Senate, and how he compares with his older brothers in the minds
of the voters.
(Editor's Note: First of a series of two columns on Senator Edward Kennedy.
From: Chicago Tribune-New York News Syndicate, Inc.
220 Last 42nd Street, New York, X.Y. 10017
HARRIS PUBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS
For Release: Thursday AM, July 15th, 1971
Not Before
By Louis Harris
Although 68 percent of the American people believe that Sen. Edward
Kennedy "works hard. at his job and is a good U.S. Senator," no more than 34
percent feel that "he has the personality and leadership qualities a President
should have."
And one in three persons, 33 percent, holds the view that "because
to
of what happened at Chappaquidick, Senator Kennedy showed he does not deserve
the Presidency,"
As a result of this decidedly mixed reaction, Kennedy now trails
President Nixon substantially in the latest Harris Survey trial heat published
last Monday. (Those results gave Mr. Nixon 44 percent, Sen. Kennedy 36 percent,
Gov. George Wallace 13 percent, and 7 percent undecided.)
The Chappaquidick incident two years ago this July 18, in which the
Senator was involved in a car crash which proved fatal to a secretary
companion, unquestionably hurt Kennedy's chances. Although 51 percent of
potential voters say that they will not be influenced by the tragic accident,
the one-third who criticize him on this issue is politically damaging.
Chappaquidick counts most as an issue among people over 50, white
Protestants, and the college-educated. Women, however, are no more disturbed
over it than men.
Significantly, over 8 in 10 of the persons who are critical of
the Senator over Chappaquidick are prepared to vote against him if he were
nominated for President.
A majority of the public, nonetheless, gives Senator Kennedy high
marks on two other scores:
2.
---- By 68 to 20 percent, people feel that he "works hard at his job
and is a good U.S. Senator." lle is cited particularly for his efforts in the
alth field and for his opposition to the war.
By 51 to 34 percent, a majority also agree that "he is one of the
few people willing to take courageous stands on basic Issues facing the country."
This sentiment rises to 60 percent among Catholics, 62 percent among Democrats,
and 77 percent among blacks. Both his brothers, John and Robert, also had
majorities in the country who accorded the quality of "courage" to their stands
in polities.
But sizable numbers of voters also hold the view that Sen. Kennedy
has gone as far as he has largely on the strength of his family association:
- By 57 to 35 percent, 8 mnjority agree with the statement that
Sen. Kennedy "has gotten as far as he has because of his name." This view is
held by 62 percent of the voters in the West, 60 percent of the college-educated,
od 62 percent of persons who are independents in their polities.
----- By 48 to 37 percent, a plurality feels that Edward Kennedy
"is not in the name league with his older brothers." A majority of 53 percent
in the West, 52 percent of the college-educated, and 53 percent of the Independents
share this view.
Clearly, the challenge to Sen. Edward Kennedy is to prove to the
electorate that he merits his current prominence on his own rather than a
legacy of his family's past efforts. He is suffering from a form of comparison
which has plagued the sons and relatives of other Famous men in American politics.
of course, Senator Kennedy has denied repeatedly that he is interested
in the nomination in 1972. However, when asked directly, most people (44 to
31 percent) say than "although he denies it, he is really trying to get the
Democratic presidential nomination in 1972."
.RRTS PUBLIC OPINION ANALISIS -
The reaction of a majority, 58 to 29 percent, is that "although
The day he might run for the Presidency, he is not ready for it now." Among
Major groups in the electorate only among blacks do less than a majority hold
To this view that Ted Kennedy's White llouse aspirations would be premature now.
A key question in the survey of 1614 households, conducted between
June 9th and 15th, dealt with Sen. Kennedy's qualifications for the Presidency:
'Do you tend to agree or disagree that Senator Edward Kennedy has the personality
and leadership qualities a President should have?"
EDWARD KENNEDY QUALIFIED FOR PRESIDENT?
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
%
%
%
Nationwide
34
51
15
By Education
8th grade or less
55
28
17
High school
37
47
16
College
23
64
13
By Race
White
30
56
14
Black
67
15
18
By Religion
Pretestant
26
59
15
Catholic
43
42
15
The clear-cut pockets of Kennedy strength are the blacks, the least
well educated, and Catholics. But this basic support adds up to a minority of
today's electorate.
Most significant are persons with a college education who now heavily
populate the fast-growing suburbs and are highly independent in their voting
habits. Without substantial backing among this affluent group, it is unlikely
that any man can get elected President in the 1970's.
It is the judgment of this swing group that Senator Kennedy is
"not ready" for a run for the White House, partly at least because of the
incident at Chappaquiddick two years ago next week.
#
I
#
December 21, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. COLSON
FROM:
L. HIGBY
Attached is the information on our telephone poll
methodology that you requested to forward to
Lufkin. If he needs any additional information
please de not hesitate to let me know.
Attachment
RNC TELEPHONE POLL METHODOLOGY
The following questions are asked:
1.
In 1972 there will be another Presidential election. Suppose
this election were being held today and the candidates were
Richard Nixon and Edmund Muskie, which one would you
vote for?
2.
Now suppose the candidates were Richard Nixon, Edmund
Muskie and George Wallace, as a third party candidate.
Which one would you vote for?
Sample Selection
The sample selection of telephone numbers is a computer-
generated list of telephone numbers by exchange. They
know how many numbers are in each exchange for each
area in the country and generate a random list based on this.
This method has the advantage of also getting private
telephone numbers. It does, however, exclude business,
commercial, and other numbers of a non-private nature.
They get the regional breaks by knowing the exchange
numbers for groups of states.
Voice identification is done on a male or female basis. All
other questions such as income, city size, etc., are all
done by asking the party such as in a personal field interview
situation. The calls are primarily made during the evening
although some are made during the day.
The last survey took place on December 1, 2, 3.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 17, 1970
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
L. HIGBY
SUBJECT:
Harris Horserace Polls
Colson had Lufkin down this afternoon and went over the Harris
problem again. Lufkin has agreed to talk with Harris about
the wide discrepancy between the most recent RNC (Chilton)
poll and his poll. However, before doing this he would like to
have a reading on the methodology surrounding our poll.
I have attached an explanation of our poll for Colson to pass on to
Lufkin for his discussion with Harris.
However, I wanted you to have an opportunity to review it before
passing it on.
Okay to send it to Colson
H
Other
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
December 14, 1970
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
Date 5-22-80
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
CHARLES COLSON
we
SUBJECT:
Harris Poll (Log P1030H)
Telephone polls generally produce a very high "don't know"
response. Most pollsters believe this should be factored out
inasmuch as it does not commonly reflect indifference towards
the candidates but rather unwillingness to reply over a telephone.
The "don't know" reply is the single biggest disadvantage to a
telephone poll. ORC, for example, simply disregards the reply
altogether.
Having factored out "don't knows" from the latest Chilton Poll, the
results are:
Nixon 54
Muskie 40
Undecided 6
Nixon 46
Muskie 37
Wallace 14
Undecided 3
This is merely for the record in the event the "Colson interpretation"
of the Chilton Poll needs to be used in other places than the leak to
Evans and Novak.
November 30, 1970
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By Empriss NARS, Date 5-22-80
MEMORANDUM FOR :
MR. COLSON
FROM :
H.R. HALDEMAN
SUBJECT :
Harris Poll
The Harris poll reported today showing Muskie leading Nixon
46-40 should be checked out carefully.
For your own private background information, a national poll
taken at the same time and in which we have complete reliance,
shows Nixon 37, Muskie 35, and Wallace 13.
HRH:pm