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This file contains: From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a discussion with John Davies on Gallup polling. Duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/16/1972 Transcription of a telephone conversation between Strachan and John Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 5/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a detailed explanation of Gallup polling results. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/9/1972 From Strachan to "J" RE: an attached document. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/5/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/27/1972 From George Gallup announcing a series of election articles on the campaign opinions of Demcratic county chairmen. Poster announcement attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the subjects of recent Gallup polls. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972 Polling issues and information written on White House memorandum paper. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/27/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. Copy with Haldeman's notes attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/19/1972 Handwritten notes relaying polling data from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 4/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling information from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/12/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recent trial heat polling figures. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/7/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's contacts with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling results on Democratic presidential hopefuls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: California polling results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/22/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: questions on Harris and Gallup polling. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972 Handwritten notes relaying polling issues presented by Davies and information obtained from other campaign officials. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/21/1972 Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's connection to Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup's February poll and Rumsfeld's discussion with Gallup. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: replacing Chapin with Rumsfeld as the White House's Gallup contact. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information on RN and Muskie in the 1972 presidential race. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/28/1972 Small sheet of paper reminding author to contact Gallup on January 25. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining the latest presidential popularity figures from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/14/1972 Note reminding Strachan to contact John Davies of the Gallup organization weekly. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: trial heats pitting RN against various potential Democratic candidates for president. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/6/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: political information obtained from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown authors. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information on future Gallup polling topics. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining Gallup information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1971 From Higby to Strachan RE: Rumsfeld's new position and his connection to the Gallup organization. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1971 From Strachan to Dick Cheney RE: issues Rumsfeld should raise in his next discussion with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1971 A Gallup Poll release focusing on the political ramifications of an African American as part of a presidential ticket in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/22/1971 From Strachan to Cheney RE: polling information on Americans voting for an African American candidate for president. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman and Chapin RE: an older Gallup release. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/8/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Newsletter], 4/3/1969 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Gallup polling from Rumsfeld's office. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/3/1969 Handwritten notes related to polling information on an African American candidate for president. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/29/1971 Handwritten information related to Gallup polling information on Catholic voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/27/1971 Handwritten notes related to obtaining polling dates from Harris and Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Cheney RE: obtaining polling information from Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Strachan to Higby RE: pushing Rumsfeld to meet with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/9/1971 From Colson to Rumsfeld RE: meeting to discuss Gallup data. Duplicate attached. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1971 From Strachan to Chapin and Howard RE: pushing Rumsfeld to work closer with Gallup in light of disappointing polling results for RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to LR RE: attached information on Rumsfeld and Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/25/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: keeping in contact with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's call to John Davies to retrieve Gallup polling data. Handwritten notes added by Higby and Strachan. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/6/1971 Sheet of paper noting a change in recent polling figures and reminding the author to call Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/8/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling results pitting Muskie, Kennedy, and Humphrey against RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/4/1971 A Gallup Poll release discussing Senator Edward Kennedy's polling numbers. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 12/9/1971 Handwritten notes on polling information. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/7/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reorganizing the White House's connections with Gallup. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/17/1971 From Chapin to Strachan RE: maintaining contact with John Davies. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/15/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: contacting Davies for the last Gallup polling results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/12/1971 A Gallup Poll release showing the results of a poll pitting Muskie against Kennedy. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/14/1971 Handwritten notes relating to Gallup contacts. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/12/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern and Wallace numbers. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/9/1972 A Gallup Poll release showing the latest numbers on McGovern and Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/2/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing the popular opinion of McGovern. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/28/1972 A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's increasing poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/26/1972 A Gallup Poll release proclaiming McGovern as strong as Humphrey in polls pitting the candidates against RN. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/21/1972 A Gallup Poll release declaring Humphrey Demcratic frontrunner. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/19/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing Republican voters' choice for RN's running mate. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/18/1972 A Gallup Poll release examining the opinions of Democratic county chairmen. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/15/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic county chiefs' opinions on Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/14/1972 A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey to McGovern among Democratic "pros." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/8/1972 A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey and Muskie's polling numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/7/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article written by Alan L. Otten titled "That Noncandidate: Trying to Figure Out What Kenney Is Up To Is All but Impossible." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/5/1972 A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's rising poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/4/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing the issue of crime in the 1972 presidential race. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/19/1972 A Gallup Poll release titled "Poll Analyzes Strength of Three Leading Democratic Possibilities." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/16/1972 A Gallup Poll article titled "Nixon Widens Lead Over HHH, Muskie" authored by George Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date Gallup and Harris trial heats from 1968 to 1972 compiled by the RNC. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup information on Democratic presidential hopefuls. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: attached campaign information from Khachigian. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/15/1972 From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: analysis of particular voter groups, such as Catholics and college students. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/15/1972 From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling data on farmers and Catholic voters. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a forthcoming presidential popularity poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/17/1972 From John C. Whitaker to Earl Butz and Haldeman RE: attached polling data on farmers. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/16/1971 From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: polling data on farmers. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/15/1971 From Whitaker to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/15/1971 From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: trial heats pitting RN against Muskie and Wallace. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Strachan to Higby RE: the structure of the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/2/1971

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26146116
label
WHSF: Contested, 43-2
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doc
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document
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1
Source metadata
id
26146116
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 43-2
description
This file contains: From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a discussion with John Davies on Gallup polling. Duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/16/1972 Transcription of a telephone conversation between Strachan and John Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 5/16/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a detailed explanation of Gallup polling results. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/9/1972 From Strachan to "J" RE: an attached document. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/5/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/27/1972 From George Gallup announcing a series of election articles on the campaign opinions of Demcratic county chairmen. Poster announcement attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the subjects of recent Gallup polls. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972 Polling issues and information written on White House memorandum paper. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/27/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. Copy with Haldeman's notes attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/19/1972 Handwritten notes relaying polling data from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 4/19/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling information from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/12/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recent trial heat polling figures. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/7/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's contacts with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling results on Democratic presidential hopefuls. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: California polling results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/22/1972 From Higby to Strachan RE: questions on Harris and Gallup polling. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/21/1972 Handwritten notes relaying polling issues presented by Davies and information obtained from other campaign officials. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 3/21/1972 Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's connection to Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/4/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup's February poll and Rumsfeld's discussion with Gallup. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/10/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: replacing Chapin with Rumsfeld as the White House's Gallup contact. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 1/31/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information on RN and Muskie in the 1972 presidential race. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/28/1972 Small sheet of paper reminding author to contact Gallup on January 25. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining the latest presidential popularity figures from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/14/1972 Note reminding Strachan to contact John Davies of the Gallup organization weekly. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: trial heats pitting RN against various potential Democratic candidates for president. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/6/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: political information obtained from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown authors. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/28/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information on future Gallup polling topics. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining Gallup information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/19/1971 From Higby to Strachan RE: Rumsfeld's new position and his connection to the Gallup organization. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1971 From Strachan to Dick Cheney RE: issues Rumsfeld should raise in his next discussion with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1971 A Gallup Poll release focusing on the political ramifications of an African American as part of a presidential ticket in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/22/1971 From Strachan to Cheney RE: polling information on Americans voting for an African American candidate for president. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/28/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman and Chapin RE: an older Gallup release. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/8/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Newsletter], 4/3/1969 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Gallup polling from Rumsfeld's office. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/3/1969 Handwritten notes related to polling information on an African American candidate for president. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/29/1971 Handwritten information related to Gallup polling information on Catholic voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 9/27/1971 Handwritten notes related to obtaining polling dates from Harris and Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Cheney RE: obtaining polling information from Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Strachan to Higby RE: pushing Rumsfeld to meet with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/9/1971 From Colson to Rumsfeld RE: meeting to discuss Gallup data. Duplicate attached. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/1/1971 From Strachan to Chapin and Howard RE: pushing Rumsfeld to work closer with Gallup in light of disappointing polling results for RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to LR RE: attached information on Rumsfeld and Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/25/1971 From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: keeping in contact with Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/22/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's call to John Davies to retrieve Gallup polling data. Handwritten notes added by Higby and Strachan. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/6/1971 Sheet of paper noting a change in recent polling figures and reminding the author to call Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/8/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling results pitting Muskie, Kennedy, and Humphrey against RN. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/4/1971 A Gallup Poll release discussing Senator Edward Kennedy's polling numbers. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 12/9/1971 Handwritten notes on polling information. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 12/7/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reorganizing the White House's connections with Gallup. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/17/1971 From Chapin to Strachan RE: maintaining contact with John Davies. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/15/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: contacting Davies for the last Gallup polling results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/12/1971 A Gallup Poll release showing the results of a poll pitting Muskie against Kennedy. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/14/1971 Handwritten notes relating to Gallup contacts. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 11/12/1971 A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern and Wallace numbers. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/9/1972 A Gallup Poll release showing the latest numbers on McGovern and Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/2/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing the popular opinion of McGovern. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/28/1972 A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's increasing poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/26/1972 A Gallup Poll release proclaiming McGovern as strong as Humphrey in polls pitting the candidates against RN. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/21/1972 A Gallup Poll release declaring Humphrey Demcratic frontrunner. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/19/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing Republican voters' choice for RN's running mate. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/18/1972 A Gallup Poll release examining the opinions of Democratic county chairmen. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/15/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic county chiefs' opinions on Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/14/1972 A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey to McGovern among Democratic "pros." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/8/1972 A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey and Muskie's polling numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/7/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article written by Alan L. Otten titled "That Noncandidate: Trying to Figure Out What Kenney Is Up To Is All but Impossible." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/5/1972 A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's rising poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 5/4/1972 A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 5/4/1972 A Gallup Poll release analyzing the issue of crime in the 1972 presidential race. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/23/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/19/1972 A Gallup Poll release titled "Poll Analyzes Strength of Three Leading Democratic Possibilities." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 4/16/1972 A Gallup Poll article titled "Nixon Widens Lead Over HHH, Muskie" authored by George Gallup. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], no date Gallup and Harris trial heats from 1968 to 1972 compiled by the RNC. 5 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup information on Democratic presidential hopefuls. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/17/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: attached campaign information from Khachigian. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/15/1972 From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: analysis of particular voter groups, such as Catholics and college students. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 3/15/1972 From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling data on farmers and Catholic voters. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/1/1972 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a forthcoming presidential popularity poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 1/17/1972 From John C. Whitaker to Earl Butz and Haldeman RE: attached polling data on farmers. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/16/1971 From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: polling data on farmers. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/15/1971 From Whitaker to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/15/1971 From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: trial heats pitting RN against Muskie and Wallace. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/10/1971 From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/20/1971 From Strachan to Higby RE: the structure of the Gallup organization. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 4/2/1971
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 5/16/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a discussion with John Davies on Gallup polling. Duplicate attached. 4 pgs. 43 2 5/16/1972 Campaign Other Document Transcription of a telephone conversation between Strachan and John Davies. 4 pgs. 43 2 5/9/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: a detailed explanation of Gallup polling results. 2 pgs. 43 2 5/5/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to "J" RE: an attached document. 1 pg. 43 2 4/27/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. 43 2 Campaign Letter From George Gallup announcing a series of election articles on the campaign opinions of Demcratic county chairmen. Poster announcement attached. 3 pgs. 43 2 5/1/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the subjects of recent Gallup polls. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Other Document Polling issues and information written on White House memorandum paper. 2 pgs. 43 2 4/27/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Strachan's recent polling discussion with Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 1 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 4/19/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. Copy with Haldeman's notes attached. 4 pgs. 43 2 4/19/1972 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes relaying polling data from Davies. 2 pgs. 43 2 4/12/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling information from Davies. 1 pg. 43 2 4/7/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: recent trial heat polling figures. 2 pgs. 43 2 1/31/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's contacts with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 3/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling results on Democratic presidential hopefuls. 1 pg. 43 2 3/22/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: California polling results. 1 pg. 43 2 3/21/1972 Campaign Memo From Higby to Strachan RE: questions on Harris and Gallup polling. 1 pg. 43 2 3/21/1972 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes relaying polling issues presented by Davies and information obtained from other campaign officials. 2 pgs. 43 2 1/31/1972 Campaign Other Document Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. 43 2 2/4/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Rumsfeld's connection to Gallup. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 2 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 2/10/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup's February poll and Rumsfeld's discussion with Gallup. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: replacing Chapin with Rumsfeld as the White House's Gallup contact. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 1/31/1972 Campaign Other Document Talking paper for Rumsfeld generated by Strachan RE: the development of a close relationship with George Gallup, Jr. 1 pg. 43 2 1/28/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information on RN and Muskie in the 1972 presidential race. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Other Document Small sheet of paper reminding author to contact Gallup on January 25. 1 pg. 43 2 1/14/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining the latest presidential popularity figures from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Other Document Note reminding Strachan to contact John Davies of the Gallup organization weekly. 1 pg. 43 2 12/6/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: trial heats pitting RN against various potential Democratic candidates for president. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 3 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 10/28/1971 Campaign Memo From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: political information obtained from Gallup. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown authors. 1 pg. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 8/30/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information on future Gallup polling topics. 2 pgs. 43 2 10/19/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: obtaining Gallup information from Rumsfeld. 1 pg. 43 2 10/12/1971 Campaign Memo From Higby to Strachan RE: Rumsfeld's new position and his connection to the Gallup organization. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. 43 2 10/6/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Dick Cheney RE: issues Rumsfeld should raise in his next discussion with Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 10/22/1971 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release focusing on the political ramifications of an African American as part of a presidential ticket in 1972. 1 pg. 43 2 9/28/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Cheney RE: polling information on Americans voting for an African American candidate for president. 2 pgs. 43 2 10/8/1971 Campaign Memo From Rumsfeld to Haldeman and Chapin RE: an older Gallup release. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 4 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 4/3/1969 Domestic Policy Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. 43 2 10/4/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information on Gallup polling from Rumsfeld's office. 1 pg. 43 2 4/3/1969 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing political prejudice toward African Americans. 1 pg. 43 2 9/29/1971 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes related to polling information on an African American candidate for president. 1 pg. 43 2 9/27/1971 Campaign Other Document Handwritten information related to Gallup polling information on Catholic voters. 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes related to obtaining polling dates from Harris and Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 9/22/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Cheney RE: obtaining polling information from Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 5 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/9/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Higby RE: pushing Rumsfeld to meet with Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 9/1/1971 Campaign Memo From Colson to Rumsfeld RE: meeting to discuss Gallup data. Duplicate attached. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/13/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Chapin and Howard RE: pushing Rumsfeld to work closer with Gallup in light of disappointing polling results for RN. 1 pg. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 9/25/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to LR RE: attached information on Rumsfeld and Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 9/22/1971 Campaign Memo From Rumsfeld to Haldeman RE: keeping in contact with Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 6 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 9/22/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Chapin RE: attached information. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten notes added by Haldeman and Higby. 2 pgs. 43 2 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Haldeman to Rumsfeld RE: use of the latter in communication with the Gallup organization. 1 pg. 43 2 12/6/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Chapin's call to John Davies to retrieve Gallup polling data. Handwritten notes added by Higby and Strachan. 1 pg. 43 2 12/8/1971 Campaign Other Document Sheet of paper noting a change in recent polling figures and reminding the author to call Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 6/4/1971 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling results pitting Muskie, Kennedy, and Humphrey against RN. 1 pg. 43 2 12/9/1971 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release discussing Senator Edward Kennedy's polling numbers. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. 43 2 12/7/1971 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes on polling information. 1 pg. 43 2 11/17/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: reorganizing the White House's connections with Gallup. Handwritten note added by unknown. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 7 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 11/15/1971 Campaign Memo From Chapin to Strachan RE: maintaining contact with John Davies. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg. 43 2 11/12/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: contacting Davies for the last Gallup polling results. 1 pg. 43 2 11/14/1971 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release showing the results of a poll pitting Muskie against Kennedy. 1 pg. 43 2 11/12/1971 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes relating to Gallup contacts. 1 pg. 43 2 6/9/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern and Wallace numbers. 1 pg. 43 2 6/2/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release showing the latest numbers on McGovern and Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/28/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing the popular opinion of McGovern. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/26/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's increasing poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/21/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release proclaiming McGovern as strong as Humphrey in polls pitting the candidates against RN. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/19/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release declaring Humphrey Demcratic frontrunner. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 8 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 5/18/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing Republican voters' choice for RN's running mate. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/15/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release examining the opinions of Democratic county chairmen. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/14/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic county chiefs' opinions on Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/8/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey to McGovern among Democratic "pros." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/7/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release comparing Humphrey and Muskie's polling numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/4/1972 Campaign Newspaper A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. 43 2 5/5/1972 Campaign Newspaper A "Wall Street Journal" article written by Alan L. Otten titled "That Noncandidate: Trying to Figure Out What Kenney Is Up To Is All but Impossible." 2 pgs. 43 2 5/4/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's rising poll numbers. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. 43 2 5/4/1972 Campaign Newspaper A "Wall Street Journal" article titled "Political Paradox: Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So." 2 pgs. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 9 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 4/23/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release analyzing the issue of crime in the 1972 presidential race. 1 pg. 43 2 4/19/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the political issues and candidates to be focused on in Gallup polls. 2 pgs. 43 2 4/16/1972 Campaign Newsletter A Gallup Poll release titled "Poll Analyzes Strength of Three Leading Democratic Possibilities." 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Newspaper A Gallup Poll article titled "Nixon Widens Lead Over HHH, Muskie" authored by George Gallup. 1 pg. 43 2 Campaign Other Document Gallup and Harris trial heats from 1968 to 1972 compiled by the RNC. 5 pgs. 43 2 3/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Gallup information on Democratic presidential hopefuls. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. 43 2 3/15/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: attached campaign information from Khachigian. 1 pg. 43 2 3/15/1972 Campaign Memo From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: analysis of particular voter groups, such as Catholics and college students. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 2 pgs. 43 2 2/1/1972 Campaign Memo From Khachigian to Haldeman RE: Gallup polling data on farmers and Catholic voters. 2 pgs. 43 2 1/17/1972 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a forthcoming presidential popularity poll. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 10 of 11 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 43 2 12/16/1971 Campaign Memo From John C. Whitaker to Earl Butz and Haldeman RE: attached polling data on farmers. 1 pg. 43 2 12/15/1971 Campaign Memo From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: polling data on farmers. 2 pgs. 43 2 11/15/1971 Campaign Memo From Whitaker to Haldeman RE: attached information. 1 pg. 43 2 11/10/1971 Campaign Memo From Khachigian to Whitaker RE: trial heats pitting RN against Muskie and Wallace. 1 pg. 43 2 9/20/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Haldeman RE: notes from Rumsfeld's meeting with George Gallup, Jr. 2 pgs. 43 2 4/2/1971 Campaign Memo From Strachan to Higby RE: the structure of the Gallup organization. 1 pg. Monday, February 13, 2012 Page 11 of 11 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL May 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies this morning disclosed the following: 1) The Gallup release for Sunday, May 21 will show that among the rank and file Democrats, McGovern has "made even greater strides. In terms of rank and file Democratic opinion, he is right up there with Humphrey and Wallace"; 2) Contrary to the information Davies gave me on May 9, the Presidential popularity, trial heats and image information was not included in the Gallup Image Survey. Gallup only ran the Democratic candidates. Gallup "decided for the sake of space and scheduling to save the Nixon aspect of it for a future survey"; 3) Gallup will probably not conduct a telephone survey regarding public support of the President's Vietnam Mine/ Peace Offer speech. Davies said they (Gallup) were "sort of opposed to what Harris and others have done in recent days on this mining question because really nobody knows; it's just not clear what is going to happen. Initial impressions are initial impressions, although they have turned out relatively favorable in terms of the President's point of view"; 4) Gallup will not release a Presidential popularity or support of the President on the Vietnam situation before the Russia trip. There is a slim possibility of trial heats, but I will receive the information from Davies well before the release date; - 2 - 5) R. W. Apple, Tom Wicker, The New York Times, and Parade, have received inquiries about the annual Gallup Chappiquiddick survey. In addition, Counsellor Rumsfeld and Bill Safire have been advised of the Apple/Wicker attempts to get Gallup to cancel the survey. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL May 16, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies this morning disclosed the following: 1) The Gallup release for Sunday, May 21 will show that among the rank and file Democrats, McGovern has "made even greater strides. In terms of rank and file Democratic opinion, he is right up there with Humphrey and Wallace"; 2) Contrary to the information Davies gave me on May 9, the Presidential popularity, trial heats and image information was not included in the Gallup Image Survey. Gallup only ran the Democratic candidates. Gallup "decided for the sake of space and scheduling to save the Nixon aspect of it for a future survey"; 3) Gallup will probably not conduct a telephone survey regarding public support of the President's Vietnam Mine/ Peace Offer speech, Davies said they (Gallup) were "sort of opposed to what Harris and others have done in recent days on this mining question because really nobody knows; it's just not clear what is going to happen. Initial impressions are initial impressions, although they have turned out relatively favorable in terms of the President's point of view"; 4) Gallup will not release a Presidential popularity or support of the President on the Vietnam situation before the Russia trip. There is a slim possibility of trial heats, but I will receive the information from Davies well before the release date; - 2 - 5) R. W. Apple, Tom Wicker, The New York Times, and Parade, have received inquiries about the annual Gallup Chappiquiddick survey. In addition, Counsellor Rumsfeld and Bill Safire have been advised of the Apple/Wicker attempts to get Gallup to cancel the survey. GS/jb H-F/U - 5/18 PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - MAY 16, 1972 G - Hi, John, how are you? D - OK, and you? G - All right. D - Pretty busy time of the year, isn't it? G - Yes. John, you mentioned last week to check with you on the results of that image survey which included popularity and trial heats - I think the polling dates were April 29-30. D -- Right. We still don't have it, Gordon. G - Oh -- ummm D - You know what I found out - having gone back and checked that questionnaire. We only did it on the Democratic candidates this time. We were saving - apparently when the boys put the question- naire together they decided for the sake of space and scheduling to save the Nixon aspect of it for a future survey. G - I see. D - Which is terribly unfortunate from your point of view. And I'm sorry that I gave you the impression that we had it on there, but I was convinced that we did and did when we were putting it together, but at the last minute it was taken off. G - So, you didn't conduct either trial heats or popularity then on that survey? D - Trial heats we did, yes. G - Any of those results? D - I don't have a thing yet, Gordon. - 2 - G OK. D - I know it sounds funny, but we are SO busy. George just got back from Tokyo - he was gone 10 days - G - I understand - D - And I have been up to my ears. G - I can imagine. Anything else of interest? D - No. Except that it looks like the most recent Democratic candidate list which is going to be for publication on Sunday shows McGovern having made even greater strides. Now in terms of rank and file Democratic opinion, he is right up there with Humphrey and Wallace. The three of them that are pretty close together. It's going to be interesting to see what this Wallace business does to the whole situation. Certainly puts a damper on the race. G - Sure, sure. On the - just among Democrats - the rank and file personal interviews, right? D - Right. You could sum up by saying that McGovern has continued to increase. G - And that will be Sunday's release? D - Right. G - No release is anticipated that might have some effect on the President's trip to Russia? Either popularity or support or you were talking last week about conducting a poll regarding his, you know, decision regarding the mining and peace offering. - 3 - D - Right. We haven't decided anything yet, and when it does it will either be a telephone survey, probably late this week, or questions put on our survey for the 23rd which would catch the Nixon-Moscow trip. G - You'd ask the reaction to the Moscow trip? I see. D - Not only that, but in the context of having, you know, mined the Port and so on. G - I see. D - We're sort of opposed to what Paris and others have done in recent days on this mining question because really nobody knows, you know, it's just not clear what is going to happen. Initial impressions are initial impressions, although they have turned out relatively favorable in terms of the President's point of view. Who knows, given one break, they could be overwhelmingly favorable and in our opinion it just doesn't shake him down enough to do it. G - Understand, understand. But you plan no releases then prior to the President's trip to Moscow? D - Uh -- there's a possibility that the trial heats will be reported prior to. G - OK. We'd be very interested in knowing that because things are -- D - Well, as soon as that happens, as soon as that is scheduled, which will be at birth least 4 days before it appears anywhere, I'll let you know. G - Oh, great. I'd very much appreciate that. D - And Gordon, I just don't have it. If I had it, I'd give it to you. - 4 - G - I understand. We're just getting a little edgy as things get closer. D - I can understand. G - And I'm just seeking information. OK? D - Very good. G - Anything else of interest? D - Not that I can think of. G - Very good. D - Just stay out of shopping center crowds. G - I will indeed. D - You're too tall. G - By the way, I saw the collection of all the .campaign stuff for '72. All the bumper stickers and all the stuff last night. It was presented for approval. I'll make sure a whole collection is put aside for you. D - Oh, that is terrific. Thank you, Gordon. I would appreciate that. G - OK. D - Thanks man. G - Good talking to you. D - Rightc. G - Bye. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL May 9, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys The March Gallup Opinion Index contains the detailed demo- graphics on the President's popularity from the Mar. 3-5, 1972 poll. The chart comparing the three previous Gallup surveys is included. The demographics for the Feb. 4-7 Gallup trial heats are also included. The "satisfaction index" -- on housing, jobs, the future, etc. -- is most interesting. One question is: "On the whole, would you say you are satisfied or dissatis#ied with the future facing you and your family?" The results are 58% satisfied, 30% dissatisfied and 12% don't know. Satisfaction in the housing, job, education and standard of living indices was even higher. The point about the "future" question is that it seems to highlight the basic optimism that remains in the electorate. The press has been emphasizing the high degree of alienation. This emphasizes the importance of the President continuing to be upbeat about that which is good in the country as opposed to those who think the country is ruined. Interesting demographics are: Catholics tend to be more satisfied than Protestants; whites much more so than non- whites; among all age groups there is broad uniformity, with the young as satisfied as other groups. On the other hand, people are widely dissatisfied with the way the nation is being governed -- 37% satisfied to 54% dissatisfied and 9% no opinion. The strange aspect is that people 18-20 years old are more satisfied with the way the nation is governed than all other age groups. - 2 - What this may mean is the degree to which people are "fed-up" with government an issue on which the President has always been ahead of others (and on which we can stay ahead if we continue to hammer away at it). Thus, while people are confi- dent about the future, they still don't like the way things are governed. Obviously, this relates to the amount of government intrusion in their lives -- taxes, the bureaucracy, busing, etc. In the face of this there seems to be an attitude that they are satisfied with the future, in spite of the way the nation is governed. This would suggest the President continue his battle against big and inefficient government. It should be pointed out that in the campaign all the Democrats who presently complain about taxes and big government are the very people who have endorsed during their political careers just such policies. A concomitant tack should be taken that the nation has much to be optimistic about - that we can regain the nation's greatness by rejecting those who constantly preach self-hate and those who claim that "we have lost our way." Finally, of continued interest is that the President is still doing quite well with farmers in trial heats with Democrats. In each case he does better among farmers. than he does nationally. Butz may be more than partially responsible for this. An analysis of the New York Times surveys by Ken Khachigian of Buchanan's staff is also attached. GS/jb Atts. Davies THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TO: I Date: 5/5/ FROM: GORDON STRACHAN you deep this package at your deskt each men give t to me on Tam uppen THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 27, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Mr. and Mrs. John Davies joined me for lunch in the White House Mess today with John Scali and Harry Dent. The discussion developed several matters of interest: 1) The Gallup trial heats testing the President against Humphrey Kennedy and McGovern revealed the following "approximate" figures: Nixon Humphrey Wallace N.O. G-Apr 22-23 46 35 12 7 Nixon Kennedy Wallace N.O. 46 35 14 5 Nixon McGovern Wallace N.O. 47 31 12 10 No release date has been set; 2) In the Wall Street Journal on Monday, May 1, there will be a lead article on Kennedy based on a survey conducted by "one of Gallup's affiliates. 11 The article will indicate that in spite of the very high awareness of Chappiquidick (95%) more people are forgiving Kennedy as time goes by. Women more easily forgive Kennedy for his actions than men. amounts to Apple t Wixher - cc to Eds Twis Gallup has been under extreme pressure not to conduct its Chappiquidick Anniversary poll this year. R. W. Apple and Tom Wicker have been especially insistent in trying to get Gallup not to conduct the poll this sls year; 3) Gallup is currently conducting an "image" study of all the Democratic candidates and President Nixon. Several of the questions will focus on -2- sincerity, truthfulness and experience. The results will be available about one month from now; 4) Davies believes that the amnesty question is analogous to bussing in the sense that very few (less than 15%) favor amnesty. Davies believes that it could become an important vote-getting issue for the President, especially in light of McGovern's position; 5) The President's basic approval level of around 50% puts him in a strong position for re-election. There has not been the erosion all other Presidents have suffered. The President's public relations operation has convinced the people that his views correspond with theirs thereby negating the importance of charisma; 6) Davies believes Gallup's unpublished research shows that the First Lady is probably his strongest untapped resource. She is more valuable than any Vice Presidential running mate. She has emerged after the Africa and China trips; 7) McGovern's support is weaker than the 15 point position below the President indicates because his policy stands are so out of touch with the American people; 8) In discussions about the recent Gallup bombing questions, Scali made several suggestions to Davies regarding follow-up questions on the invasion, domino theory and secret missions. Davies seemed receptive and I will prepare questions for your review to send to him. 9) Davies expressed some concern about the political season and the increased pressure for information by Democrats and Republicans. I assured him that I would continue to be his only contact at the White House and that information would be kept very close. He seemed pleased and invited me to Princeton to meet George Gallup, Jr. and to examine their facilities. He asked me to say hello to Don Rumsfeld because he was George Gallup's classmate at Princeton and an old friend. AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC OPINION THE GALLUP POLL 53 BANK STREET DR. GEORGE GALLUP PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY CHAIRMAN GEORGE GALLUP, JR. PRESIDENT ADVANCE ALERT Dear Editor: Wtihin the next day or two you will receive the first of a series of articles which report the results of a poll of the Democratic county chairmen of the nation that we are now completing. We believe this is one of the most important polls that will be conducted between now and convention time since it reveals the thinking of the local leaders of the Democratic Party. Interestingly, the views of these leaders have prevailed in every national political convention since 1952 -- when the Republican local leaders favored Taft over Eisenhower. The new convention rules now in force have lessened the power of the county chairmen in the selection of convention delegates, yet these local leaders will undoubtedly play an all important role again in the 1972 convention in Miami. What appears to be in the offing is one of the roughest convention fights of this century. We plan a series of reports dealing with the views of county chairmen on their candidate preferences; their views on how hard it will be to defeat President Nixon; the best campaign arguments the Democrats have in the coming campaign. An- other report in the series will show how the party "pros" feel about a national primary to take the place of the state primaries. We have been polling the County Chairmen in every national election since 1952 and we are happy to say that we enjoy the confidence of these people to such an extent that we get a phenomenal 50% or better return from the approximately 3000 County Chairmen. Sincerely, IS THE BIGGEST CONVENTION FIGHT IN HISTORY BREWING? Announcing a Special Gallup Survey of the Nation's Democratic County Chairmen The views of county chairmen will carry special weight in the choice of the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee. In every election year in the last twenty years, excepting 1952, their opinion has prevailed. Who are the top choices of the "party pros" for the 1972 nomination? Will the party turn to Kennedy? Regardless of which candidate the "party pros" prefer, who do they think will actually get the nomination? Will the convention accept Wallace? How difficult do the party chairmen think it will be to de- feat President Nixon? The first report in this series is for release Sunday, May 7 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTOM ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL May 1, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies today confirmed that Gallup did not conduct Presidential popularity questions on either the April 15-16 or April 24-25 surveys. Davies says that Presi- dential popularity is not conducted when trial heat questions are because the results would be "biased". Preliminary results from the Gallup "candidates image" study should be available late next week from Davies. The Gallup release for Thursday, May 4th will describe the Democratic contenders' standings among a nationwide sample of Democrats. Davies would not give me the exact figures, but he told me that "Humphrey is the clear leader, with Kennedy up there". McGovern remains "very low" nationally. Gallup may release the results of their poll among Democratic County Chairmen next week. As was expected, Humphrey is "way ahead". che past Thank THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Test creasion addit ?s on is 7 Gal is Invas or no FU R46-35-12 It 46-35-14 MG4 mG47-31-- 31 - Image Pole - 1 me on - wsten EMK over in west Drop Crappig send ?.S then shed Goo keep secrets - kes comorace THE WHITE HOUSE Would you WASHINGTON be op to bome nrn even Goo in 80 n would if you knew - chat all Roald set be like - supp SU A overwn centrol after ( of - comm seice of If sun this would endange security countriest alternate the U.S, Pop April 27, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Mr. and Mrs. John Davies joined me for lunch in the White House Mess today with John Scali and Harry Dent. The discussion developed several matters of interest: 1) The Gallup trial heats testing the President against Humphrey Kennedy and McGovern revealed the following "approximate" figures: Nixon Humphrey Wallace N.O. G-Apr 22-23 46 35 12 7 Nixon Kennedy Wallace N.O. 46 35 14 5 Nixon McGovern Wallace N.O. 47 31 12 10 No release date has been set; 2) In the Wall Street Journal on Monday, May 1, there will be a lead article on Kennedy based on a survey conducted by "one of Gallup's affiliates." The article will indicate that in spite of the very high awareness of Chappiquidick (95%) more people are forgiving Kennedy as time goes by. Women more easily forgive Kennedy for his actions than men. Gallup has been under extreme pressure not to conduct its Chappiquidick Anniversary poll this year. R. W. Apple and Tom Wicker have been especially insistent in trying to get Gallup not to conduct the poll this year; 3) Gallup is currently conducting an "image" study of all the Democratic candidates and President Nixon. Several of the questions will focus on -2- sincerity, truthfulness and experience. The results will be available about one month from now; 4) Davies believes that the amnesty question is analogous to bussing in the sense that very few (less than 15%) favor amnesty. Davies believes that it could become an important vote-getting issue for the President, especially in light of McGovern's position; 5) The President's basic approval level of around 50% puts him in a strong position for re-election. There has not been the erosion all other Presidents have suffered. The President's public relations operation has convinced the people that his views correspond with theirs thereby negating the importance of charisma; 6) Davies believes Gallup's unpublished research shows that the First Lady is probably his strongest untapped resource. She is more valuable than any Vice Presidential running mate. She has emerged after the Africa and China trips; 7) McGovern's support is weaker than the 15 point polition below the President indicates because his policy stands are so out of touch with the American people; 8) In discussions about the recent Hallup bombing questions, Scali made several suggestions to Davies regarding follow-up questions on the invasion, dominoe theory and secret missions. Davies seemed receptive and I will prepare questions for your review to send to him, 9) Davies expressed some concern about the political season and the increased pressure for information by Democrats and Republicans. I assured him that I would continue to be his only contact at the White House and that information would be kept very close. He seemed pleased and invited me to Princeton to meet George Gallup, Jr. and to examine their facilities. He asked me to say hello to Don Rumsfeld because he was George Gallup's classmate at Princeton and an old friend. It is ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL April 19, 1972 4/21 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies of Gallup Surveys today disclosed several matters of interest: 1. The Gallup Release for Sunday, April 23, 1972 will focus on the increased fear of crime by Americans. One of the lead lines, if not the headline, will be that "6 in 10 women are afraid to walk in their own neighbor- hoods in the evening." This concern by 58% of the women compares with 41% five years ago. The public blames too lenient laws, drugs, and permissiveness by parents and society. Crime is now a critical domestic problem equal to the economic issue in John Davies' mind. He believes it will hurt candidates with a soft position on crime or drugs; 2. Gallup's April Survey will be in the field this weekend, probably April 21-23. In addition to Presidential popularity, trial heats, and the standing of the Democratic contenders, Gallup will ask several questions on the Indo- china situation. The questions will not be the same as ones Gallup has asked before according to Davies. Rather, there will be questions on reaction to a Senate vote to cut off funds for the was provided the POWs are released. The question on the bombing will be something like "Do you favor or oppose the stepped up bombing of Indochina in recent days?" There will be no questions on the N.V.N. invasion. Davies would not indicate any release date to me. - 2 me In light of this information you should consider two steps. First, ORC could poll April 21-23 on pending matters and offer a comparison with Gallup. The last ORC poll occurred on March 18-19. Proceed with development of questionnaire. (Areas to be tested include drugs, ITT, Vietnam and Ehrlichman's busing questions which have not been received.) Forget ORC poll for now. Other. . The second step might be to ask Counsellor Rumsfeld to call George Gallup, Jr. If Rumsfeld has called him in the last two months, neither Colson nor I are privvy to the conversation. You would probably have to ask Rumsfeld questions. personally to talk to George Gallup about the Indochina GS/jb Rumabeled THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON H ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL April 19, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies of Gallup Surveys today disclosed several matters of interest: 1. The Gallup Release for Sunday, April 23, 1972 will focus on the increased fear of crime by Americans. One of the lead lines, if not the headline, will be that "6 in 10 women are afraid to walk in their own neighbor- hoods in the evening." This concern by 58% of the women compares with 41% five years ago. The public blames too lenient laws, drugs, and permissiveness by parents and society. Crime is now a critical domestic problem equal to the economic issue in John Davies' mind. He believes it will hurt candidates with a soft position on crime or drugs; 2. Gallup's April Survey will be in the field this weekend, probably April 21-23. In addition to Presidential popularity, trial heats, and the standing of the Democratic contenders, Gallup will ask several questions on the Indo- china situation. The questions will not be the same as ones Gallup has asked before according to Davies. Rather, there will be questions on reaction to a Senate vote to cut off funds for the war provided the POWs are released. The question on the bombing will be something like "Do you favor or oppose the stepped up bombing of Indochina in recent days?" There will be no questions on the N.V.N. invasion. Davies would not indicate any release date to me. - 2 -- In light of this information you should consider two steps. First, ORC could poll April 21-23 on pending matters and offer a comparison with Gallup. The last ORC poll occurred on March 18-19. Proceed with development of questionnaire. (Areas to be tested include drugs, ITT, Vietnam, and Ehrlichman's busing questions which have not been received.) Gro'Neill H Forget ORC poll for now. 4/20 Other. The second step might be to ask Counsellor Rumsfeld to call George Gallup, Jr. If Rumsfeld has called him in the last two months, neither Colson nor I are privvy to the conversation. You would probably have to ask Rumsfeld personally to talk to George Gallup about the Indochina G RumoOP4/20 questions. you ask the - Rums4/21 V have Colon Her Colson 4/21 Davies 4/19 The Heats - not until Fri on EMKT Mc G - Return rate slim. - whe figures open Report on Sun -growing fear on lime headline? near 58% 6 in 10 women are crime - afraid te wall in a critical -as big Dames Pul; 41% - 5 yrs age their neighber in evening issue as Pablic regards economic hous too lement now dote to home Rermessiveness Drugs by - Hurt cand's parents society w/ooft position Into field 21-244 - Pop, Tre Heats, standings of Dem. cands see -?on Un lombing reaction to Sen vote to cut off hunds provided paus B $. Ao y fae a op step up ben -ne - ? on n Vn invasion in recent day Davias F/u 4/17 April 12, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys The March Gallup Opinion Index contains the detailed demographics on the President's popularity from the March 3-5, 1972 poll. The chart comparing the three previous Gallup surveys is included. The demographics for the Feb. 4-7 Gallup trial heats are also included. Discussion with John Davies at Gallup disclosed that the Sunday Gallup release will compare the Democrats' strengths and weaknesses. The analysis of Humphrey will show his support among blacks and in the Midwest while Muskie is stronger among the old, the ethnics, and in the East. Gallup ran a special trial heat poll last weekend testing the President against Kennedy and McGovern. Davies will not be able to give me the results until next Tuesday, April 18, 1972. The information may not be published. GS/jb F/U 4/17 Pat ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL it April 7, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Popularity and Trial Heat Figures Discussion with John Davies at Gallup on Friday, April 6, disclosed that the final Presidential popularity figures are: Approve Disapprove No Opinion G - 3/24-27 53 36 11 The release date for these figures is uncertain. Davies says the editorial board has not yet decided. The "almost final" trial heat results which will not be released Sunday, April 9 are: Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided G - 3/24-27 46 36 14 4 Nixon Humphrey Wallace Undecaded 46 35 15 4 Against just Wallace the results are: G - 3/24-27 Nixon Wallace Undecided Other 70 23 4 3 On Sunday, April 9, Gallup will release the standing of the Democratic dandidates among the Democratic voters. The headline will be: "Humphrey Retains Front Runner Spot in National Test of Democratic Hopefuls." The results are: G - 3/24-27 G - 3/3-5 Humphrey 31 1 31 % Muskie 22 23 Wallace 17 15 05 -2- G - 3/24-27 G - 3/3-5 McGovern 5 % 6 % Lindsay 5 7 Jackson 5 3 McCarthy 4 5 Chisholm 4 2 Mills 1 2 Hartke 0 1 Yorty 0 0 No Preference 6 5 GS:car Howave THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: Jan. 31 TO: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN On September 20 you decided to have Don Rumsfeld become the high level contact with Gallup. He reports rarely and then only to you on his contact with Gallup. Most recently he obtained the Nixon, Muskie trial heats, called Colson, but has not responded to our requests through his staff to call Gallup and get the other trial heat figures. You may want to talk with Rumsfeld to get the Gallup project back on track. Administratively Confidential March 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Poll - Democratic Contenders Discussion with the Gallup Organization this morning indicated that the Sunday, March 19 release on the Democratic Contenders will show Humphrey as the leader for the Democratic nomination. The question: "Which One of the men on this list would you like to see nominated as the Democratic candidate for President in 1972:" Humphrey 35% Muskie 28 Lindsay 8 McGovern 7 McCarthy 6 Jackson 5 Chisholm 3 Hartke 1 Yorty 1 No Preference 6 The polling dates were March 3 - 5. The headline will be "Humphrey Takes Lead as Top Choice." When the question included Wallace the results were: Humphrey 31% Muskie 23 Wallace 15 Lindsay 7 McGovern 6 McCarthy 5 Jackson 3 Chisholm a Mills 2 Hartke 1 Yorty 0 No Preference 5 Administratively Confidential March 22, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: California Polling Information You asked for the campaign's polling results for Los Angeles and Orange Counties in January to compare with the DMI survey conducted February 25 - March 9a Nixon Muskie Wallace No Opinic DMI - Feb. 25 - March 9 45% 36% 6% 12% DMI - Jan. 6 - Jan.19 44 42 6 8 According to Teeter the February DMI survey did not cover Kennedy or Humphrey. The March and April DMI surveys will include Muskie, Humphrey, Kennedy and Wallace. DMI hopes to renegetiate this political polling contract in May with Tom Reed, the Republican National Committeeman in California. Pursuant to your request, I delivered the California polling summary sheets to Bob Finch. I will give him the DMI vendors report on Thursday, March 23 when the vendors' reports in your office will be changed. Finch expressed concern about the security of the DMI results of the campaign polls, but Bob Teeter says this is an unwarranted fear. Teeter covered this concern specifically with Vince Barabba, the President of DMI. GS:1m THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON March 21. 1972 FU 3/27 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FU FROM: L. HIGBY SUBJECT: Harris/Gallop Polling What is happening on the situation with Harris and Gallop? When will they be in the field? What questions are they polling etc. ? 3/21 John Davies Trl Heats - B avail - series into field so 2 weeks, 2 Suns not this but ff Scen. Interviewino Wis wello Fri, sat, Sun. 1 Q'son crime -pers hear Teend over 5 yrs has risen up to 2 Updating prop on Mans 3 Dem cand's that mees U It HIL ets 2667 Havis - Howns Typed - called hr/P's office cn sat. K- Slans WH phones. Cluesen - naxin EOB morgan- - seteet few brufed by E. Er mery H File Gallip 703/25 package FU TALKING PAPER FOR DON RUMSFELD RE: Gallup Polls I understand that you have had a couple of meetings with George Gallup, Jr. to strengthen our access to their poll information. This contact with Gallup should be expanded into a weekly contact. They will be releasing political information -- such as the trial heats from their January 7-9 poll --- that will be increasingly important to us. Why don't you call me after each weekly discussion with George Gallup Jr. GS 1/31/72 drop. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 2/4 TO: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN You have a talking paper dealing with Rumsfeld's relationship with Gal lup. Why not have him try to get his poll results from Gallup? OK THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL February 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Presidential Popularity The Gallup poll has completed their February poll. They "will probably release the Presidential popularity within the next week." John Davies is out of town for 10 days, so Chapin and I will be unable to get the results ahead of the release. You have a talking paper for Counsellor Rumsfeld to get him to call George Gallup, Jr. Last month he called Gallup and advised Colson. You may want to call Rumsfeld to see if you could get the results before departing for China next Thursday. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL February 10, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Presidential Popularity The Gallup poll has completed their February poll. They Wwill probably release the Presidential popularity within the next week." John Davies is out of town for 10 days, so Chapin and I will be unable to get the results ahead of the release. You have a talking paper for Counsellor Rumsfeld to get him to call George Gallup, Jr. Last month he called Ballup and advised Colson. You may want to Call Rumsfeld to see if you could get the results before departing for China next Thursday. GS:car inistratively Confidential September 20, 1971 ORANDOM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the White House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. tropps from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc.) ; 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country prosperous) - the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely The possibility of using polling contacts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve Disapprove Comment If approve, a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. GS:1m September 17, 1971 ADHINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUNSPELD FROM: H. R. HALDERAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your neeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davios at Callup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Chency. HRH:GS:1m:BK:dg:GS:dg IC if TALKING PAPER FOR DON RUMSFELD RE: Gallup Polls 49 1tsble it I understand that you have had a couple of meetings with has George Gallup, Jr. to strengthen our access to their poll Tal information. to This contact with Gallup should be expanded into a weekly contact. They will be releasing political information -- such as the trial heats from their January 7-9 poll -- that will be increasingly important to us. Why don't you call me after each weekly. discussion with George Gallup, Jr. GS: 1/31/72 1m yes Admini stratively Confidential January 28, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Trial Heats On Monday, Gallup will release "Nixon and Muskie in Standoff Battle for 1972. 14 The figures are: Nixon Muskie Wallace No Opinion G-Jan 7-9, 1972 43% 42% 12% 3% Gallup also asked trial heat questions about the other contenders and may have asked a four-way with McCarthy. I could not obtain this information. Don Rumsfield might be able to get it from George Gallup, Jr. but you would have to ask Rumsfield personally to do it. GS: car Do beef tally peper b for Reumfel full JE Davies CALL GALLUP TUESDAY, Jan. 25th Davies H-FC THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential January 14, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Results I called John Davies to ask him when the next Presidential popularity figures would be released. Davies said the results will be released Wednesday, January 19. Davies would not give me the results because they have not been tabulated yet. Davies said I could have the popularity figures on Monday, January 17. As to the trial heat figures, they will be released "hope- fully Sunday", January 16. Davies would not give me these figures either, saying they were still being tabulated. Counsellor Rumsfeld, through Dick Cheney, was asked on Wednesday, January 12 to call George Gallup; Jr. Cheney does not know whether Rumsfeld has called. Rumsfeld prefers to talk directly with you after he calls Gallup. Davies 1/17-930 "mood of country leans toward rixon "-Weo Thur- update on pop. 130 -out te lunch 4p-outofophice 4a -outof office G chapin 450 - Davies : Then. Pop 49 39 College Pop. 43 51 - sign Tre heats early weo morning Davies things H H H willle Demoppenent FU MONDAY GS REMINDER: CALL JOHN DAVIES AT GALLUP WEEKLY. Davies Smyth Administratively Confidential 12/9/19 December 6, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Trial Heats Dwight Chapin called John Davies at the Gallup Organization to obtain the trial heat results from the poll conducted November 19-22. Davies called me with the results, which are based on registered voters, not the entire population: Nixon Kennedy Wallace Undecided 44 41 10 5 These are final figures and will be published Thursday, December 9. Preliminary figures, which may change slightly before publica- tion on Sunday, December 12, are: Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided 44 41 10 5 Nixon Humphrey Wallace Undecided 46 37 12 5 Nixon McGovern Wallace Undecided 49 33 12 6 If you cover these figures with the President, you may want to remind him that Mr. & Mrs. George Gallup, Jr. will be his guests at the Medici State Dinner tomorrow night, December 7. GS:dg MEMORANDUM FUHZ THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MSV HHT 9/11 October 28, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: BOB HALDEMAN FROM: DON RUMSF El D. SUBJECT: GALLUP 1. You have seen the Presidential approval poll and noted that this is the first decisive increase in the President's approval since the beginning of the year, although the intensity of approval had increased in the previous report. The Gallup Report to be published Thursday, October 29 will cover public feelings concerning prices. It willindicate that the outlook has brightened somewhat. Gallup describes it as a modest gain. During the last six months on the approval of the President, there has been no major shift until this latest report. The 18 to 30 year old population remained unchanged despite the 5-point increase of approval for the President. The groups that improved were men, clerical, sales and Republican reflecting the previous report's comment on the increase of intensity of support for the President. 2. Trial heats may be ready for next weekend according to Gallup. 3. The Gallup Poll on whether or not people would vote for a Black President or Black Vice President, as carried in the paper. left the impression it was a negative report. That would be an incorrect interpretation. While it is true that a Black for President or Vice President according to the Gallup Poll would still be a liability, the percentage that would support a Black for President Howard or Vice President reached an all time high of 70%. Which prover windie wrong - will 30tin Can we get service to tabs their on ? 11/20 on one cheney Fu - Tues & These September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: H. R. HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your meeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davies at Gallup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Cheney. HRH:GS:1m:BK:dg:GS:dg Chapin FU EVERY ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL TUES 1 August 30, 1971 Thurs. MEMORANDUM FOR: DWIGHT CHAPIN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Poll Gallup was kind enoughtto send us the attached calendar of the interesting political questions that their future polls will cover. Since you and I will probably get asked about these results when we are not prepared with the responses, maybe we should develop a system for getting basis. the information from John Davies at Gallup on a more regular I suggest that I call Nell Yates every Tuesday and Thursday to check your telephone call schedule so that we can get through calls to John Davies on a regular basis. Do you have another suggestion? GS:1m FU EVERY TUESDAY - THRUSDAY Coming Up ON Gallup Poll Calendar! - Are rank-and-file labor union members "in revolt" over the President's new economic program? - Has Nixon registered gains in terms of his popularity with voters? RICHARD M. NIXON - What is the reaction of Republican and Democratic voters to Mayor Lindsay's party switch? - Where is Lindsay now in the Democratic standings? - Do voters give Lindsay a chance to win the Democratic nomination? JOHN V. LINDSAY - Which Democrat would give Nixon the hardest fight if the election were being held today? - Is Wallace winning new adherents in the South? - What are current attitudes on "busing" - both in the South and North? GEORGE C. WALLACE Important Note to Editors A full-seale national survey has just been completed and tabulations are now underway. There will be no release for this Thursday, August 26. The next Gallup Report will be sent you for release Sunday, August 29. cheney Taes /Thers FU THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential October 19, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Rumsfeld--Gallup Information You decided on September 20 that Counsellor Don Rumsfeld should become the White House contact with the Gallup organization. Several requests for information from Gallup have been given to Dick Cheney in the Counsellor's office. However, Rumsfeld only wants to talk with you and will not inform Cheney, Higby, or myself about any call to Gallup. Colson may have asked Rumsfeld for some Gallup information because the President asked Colson for the latest Gallup information on Thursday or Friday of last week. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 12, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORA NDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY L Check Rumsfeld's office and see whether or not he wants to continue to be the Gallup contact, since he is moving to his new job. This is something we should make sure of, one way or the other. G Oney "I think he does 10/14 want to continue, but I'll check dim pers; Rumbers note to tall of It note H; Rums call cheney Fu 10/19 This + Theres. 0, 2971 IN FOR: BLUX CILLY FROM: COMBON DERACTOR SUBJECT: are the Y-- DL M. - LOLLY. - Counsellor telm when Cullep ment, BOWL 1 should be raised: 2, Data and results Eron Loan Presidential poil, 2) Date of mail popularaty press release; 3) Plans for trial heat serios; 4) Date of release of "bluck Vice President response 5) Gallup's assessment of Maich voting groups have shifted. OVDE: the past C months. Attachments GS:elr NOTETO EDITORS: Please note that today's report is for release Friday, Oct. 22. This will take the place of the report usually scheduled for Thursday. The next report will be sent you for release Sunday, Oct. 24. The Gallup Poll For Release: Friday, Oct. 22, 1971 Negro on Ticket Would Likely Hurt Presidential Candidate's 1972 Chances But Prejudice Toward Negroes in Politics at All-Time Low By George Gallup This is the other question asked Copyright, 1971, There's always much discus ion Field Enterprises, Inc. today a sizable majority of 70 per make no difference in their views. about the qualifications of president- cent say they would vote for a Negro. A total of 1473 adults, 18 and older, ial candidates their education. age, Younger Are More were interviewed in person to obtain race, religion and the like. If your VOTE FOR A NEGRO FOR PRESIDENT ? Favorably Inclined the results of this survey, which was party nominated a generally ell. PRINCETON, N. J. Oct. 21 - Sen Views on ting for a ticket with conducted in more than 300 scientifical- qualified man for President and be Edmund Muskie's comment that he would be hurt in 1972 if he chose a a Negro as the Vice-presidential can- ly selected localities across the nation bappened to be of Negro, would you Negro for a Vice-Presidential running % % didate depend in considerable mea- during the period Oct 8-11 This ques- tote for bim? mate is suj ported by the results of a sure on one's age, level of formal ed- tion was asked: 80 80 Here is the trend: nationwide survey just completed. ucation and the region in which he Suppose the presidential candidate No One fourth of voters interviewed (24 lives. of your choice next year picks a Yes No Opin. per cent) say they would be "less like- Persons with college training are Negro as his rice presidential run- % % in Iv" to vote for the presidential candi- 70 70 about evenly divided between those who ning mate - would this make you 1958 38 53 9 date of their choice if he picked a say they would be "more likely" to more likely to rote for this ticket or 1963 47 45 8 Negro on the ticket. compared to 13 vote for a presidential candidate with less likely? TOOS 59 34 7 per cent who say they would 1x: "more a Negro running mate than those who Here are the national results and 1967 54 40 6 likely to do 50. More than half of 60 60 say they would be "less likely" to do so. those by key groups: 1969 07 23 10 all persons interviewed say it would 1971 70 23 7 make no difference. However. among persons with only No No a grade school ackground, nearly three More Less Diff. Opin. Views on voting for a Negro for II hile it appears on balance that a 50 50 times as many say they would be "less % % % % President follow the same pattern as Negro on the ticket could be a liability likely" as say they would be "more NATIONAL 13 24 57 6 in the case of the earlier question. with to a residential candidate. prejudice to- likely" to vote for such a ticket. younger persons. the offece trained and ward Negroes in politics has declined to its lowest point yet recorded. This 40 40 Persons under 30 are the only group College 13 17 66 those who live outside the South most 4 that would be more favorably inclined High school 14 24 56 6 melined (i) hold a liberal apoint. is seen in six national surveys taken since 1958 in which voters were asked toward their presidential favorite if he Grade school 12 33 48 7 if they would vote for a Negro for picked a Negro as a running mate. 30 60 Coming Sunday! 30 Under 30 yrs. 20 15 5 president if he were qualified for the Majority In South 30-49 yrs. 14 23 58 5 job LATEST 1958 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 Not Opposed go yrs. & older 9 30 54 7 Only 13 years ago, a Negro's pro- A slate with a Negro as Vice Presi- NIXON spects for reaching the nation's high- dent would have roughest stedding South. whites 5 42 48 5 est office looked dim. At that among whites in the South, where many North. whites 13 20 62 5 time 38 per cent of all adults inter- The percentage of Americans who say they POPULARITY more say they would be "less likely" view said they would vote for a quali- would vote for a Negro for President has climbed to vote for it than take the opposite Republicans 10 26 59 5 fied Negro for President. Since then dramatically from 38 per cent in 1958 to 70 per opinion. However, it is interesting to Democrats 16 22 56 6 RATING opposition has steadily eroded, and cont in the latest survey. note that nearly half say it would Independents 13 25 56 6 cheney Jues /Thers FU Administratively Confidential September 28, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: DICK CHENEY FROM: GORDON STRACHAN Per our conversation, here is the trend for the Gallup question on voting for a negro President. Please advise me as soon as Counsellor Rumsfeld has talked with Gallup. GS:1m released april 1969 Gallep 6 VOTE FOR A NEGRO? for President " Question: If he happened to be a Negro?" MID-MARCH, 1969 1967 Yes No No Opinion Yes No No Opinion % % % % % % NATIONAL 67 23 10 54 40 6 SEX Men 66 25 9 Women 68 22 10 RACE White 65 25 10 Non-white X X X EDUCATION VOTE FOR A NEGRO? College 79 14 7 11-year Trend High School 71 21 8 Yes No No Opinion Grade School 49 36 15 OCCUPATION % % % Prof. & Bus. 76 16 8 1958 38 53 9 White Collar 74 21 5 1963 47 45 8 Farmers 56 32 12 1965 59 34 7 Manual 70 22 8 1967 54 40 6 AGE 1969 67 23 10 21 29 years 77 14 9 30 49 years 72 20 8 50 & over 58 31 11 RELIGION Protestant 61 29 10 Catholic 78 11 11 Jewish X X X POLITICS Republican 62 27 11 Democrat 72 19 9 Independent 64 26 10 REGION East 74 14 12 Midwest 71 20 9 South 52 39 9 West 74 20 6 INCOME $10,000 & over 75 19 6 $ 7,000 & over 73 20 7 $ 5,000 $6,999 67 23 10 $ 3,000 $4,999 66 23 11 Under $3,000 52 34 14 COMMUNITY SIZE 1,000,000 & over 73 15 12 500,000 & over 76 13 11 50,000 499,999 76 18 6 2,500 49,999 59 32 9 Under 2,500, Rural 55 34 11 MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 8, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: BOB HALDEMAN DWIGHT CHAPIN FROM: DON RUMSFELD Attached is a copy of the April 3, 1969 release on the subject we discussed. The new one should be out in the next two weeks. For Release: The Gallup Poll Thursday April 3, 1969 Can a Negro be President? Prejudice Toward Negroes in Politics Shows Steady Decline By George Gallup Copyright, 1969, American Institute of Vote for a Negro Public Opinion. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part strictly for President? prohibited except with written consent of the copyright holders. % % 70 70 PRINCETON, N. J.. April = - Evi- dence that the Negro is gaining acceptance in American society is re- vealed by the latest nationwide survey which shows a new high in the pro- 60 60 portion of people who sav they would vote for a Negro for President. Just eleven years ago is. 1958. when the first measurement *on the subject was taken, a Negro's prospects for ever reaching the nation's highest office look- 50 50 ed particularly dim. At that time 38 per cent of all adults interviewed said they would vote for a qualined Negro for President. Since then opposition has steadily broken down. and today a solid majority of 67 per cent say they would vote for a Negro. 40 40 The latest percentate represents a 13-point rise from the previous measure- ment in June. 1967. The change in this two-year period has been registered primarily among those croups that have 30 30 traditionally been most opposed to a Negro (as well as a Jew and a Catho- lic) becoming President. These groups '58 '63 '65 '67 69 are people with little formal education, older persons and white Southerners. More Negroes The proportion of Americans who today say they would vote for a Negro for President has increased Being Elected Although the public opinion climate from 38 per cent in 1938, when the first measurement is changing. Negroes clearly have a was taken, to 67 per cent. long way to go in actually attaining high political office. Nevertheless. persons of this race have made definite headwav in recent years. For example. two large U.S. cities -- Cleveland and Gary, Ind. - now have Negro mayors. In addition, there are now 9 Negro Rep- resentatives and one U.S. Senator in Congress. Vote for a Jew? The latest survey was conducted in No over 300 localities across the nation Yes No Opin. selected by probability sampling meth- % % % ods. A total of 1514 adults were inter- 1937 46 46 8 viewed in person by trained field work- Prejudice Toward 1958 62 28 10 Jews Declining ers. 1961 68 23 9 A further question in the survey also This was the question asked: 1963 77 17 6 shows that prejudice toward Jews in 1965 80 15 5 There's always much discussion politics is declining. Tighty-six persons 1967 82 13 about the qualifications of president- in 100 today say they would vote for 1909 86 8 6 ial candidates - there education. age. a qualified Jew for President, compared race. religion and the like. If your to 46 in 100 a 1937 survey. Two years Vote for a Catholic? party nominated J generally well. - ago the figure was 82 in every 100. No qualified man for President and he An increase in willingness to vote Yes No Opin. happened to be a Negen. would you for a Catholic has also been recorded. % % % vote for him? In 1917. 64 per cent said they would 1937 64 28 8 Here is the trend: vote for a Catholic for President. In 1940 62 32 7 No a 1958 survey the percentage had in. 1958 68 25 7 Yes No Opin. creased to 68 per cent. Following the 1959 (x) 20 II 62 in % election of John F. Kennedy, a Roman 1960 71 20 9 1958 38 9 Catholic, the percentage jurnped to 82 53 1901 82 13 , 1941 47 45 8 per cert. 1963 84 13 3 :945 50 34 7 The following tables show the read 195 87 10 3 1967 14 40 6 on withoutes to vote for a Catholic 1997 R., 9 2 1969 67 23 10 and Jen 1969 88 8 4 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date Oct. 4, 1971 NOTE TO: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN Don Rumsfeld's office (Dick Cheney) reports that the "black Vice Presi- dent" question will be asked by Gallup. The wording will be "similar" to that used for the "Negro for President" question. Bill Safire and Dwight Chapin believe that it is tactically wise to keep pushing this issue, especially since the 1969 results indicated 67% would vote for a qualified Negro for President. For Release: The Gallup Poll Thursday. April 3, 1969 Can (1 Negro be President? Prejudice Toward Negroes in Politics Shows Steady Decline By George Gallup Copyright, 1969, American Institute of Vote for a Negro Public Opinion. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part strictly for President? prohibited, except with written consent of the copyright holders. % % 70 70 PRINCETON, N. J., April 2 - Evi- dence that the Negro is gaining acceptance in American society is re- vealed by the latest nationwide survey which shows a new high in the pro- 60 60 portion of people who say they would vote for a Negro for President. Just eleven years ago in 1958. when the first measurement on the subject was taken, a Negro's prospects for ever reaching the nation's highest office look- 50 50 ed particularly dim. At that time 38 per cent of all adults interviewed said they would vote for a qualified Negro for President. Since then opposition has steadily broken down. and today a solid majority of 67 per cent say they would vote for a Negro. 40 40 The latest percentage represents a 13-point rise from the previous measure- ment in June, 1967. The change in this two-year period has been registered primarily among those groups that have 30 30 traditionally been most opposed to a Negro (as well as a Jew and a Catho- lic) becoming President. These groups '58 '63 '65 '67 69 are people with little formal education, older persons and white Southerners. More Negroes The proportion of Americans who today say they Being Elected would vote for a Negro for President has increased Although the public opinion climate from 38 per cent in 1958, when the first measurement is changing, Negroes clearly have a was taken, to 67 per cent. long way to go in actually attaining high political office. Nevertheless, persons of this race have made definite headway in recent years. For example, two large U.S. cities - Cleveland and Gary, Ind. - now have Negro mayors. In addition, there are now 9 Negro Rep- resentatives and one U.S. Senator in Congress. Vote for a Jew: The latest survey was conducted in No over 300 localities across the nation Yes No Opin. selected by probability sampling meth- % of % ods. A total of 1514 adults were inter- Prejudice Toward 1937 46 16 8 viewed in person by trained field work- 1958 62 28 10 ers. Jews Declining 1961 68 23 9 A further question in the survey also This was the question asked: 1963 77 :7 6 shows that prejudice toward Jews in 1965 80 :5 5 There's always much discussion politics is declining. Eighty-six persons 1967 82 23 5 about the qualifications of president- in 100 today say they would vote for 1969 86 8 6 ial candidates --- their education, age, a qualified Jew for President. compared race, religion and the like. If your to 46 in 100 a 1937 survey. Two years Vote for a Catholic? party nominated a generally well- - ago the figure was 82 in every 100. No qualified man for President and he An increase in willingness to vote Yes No Opin. happened to be a Negro, would you for a Catholic has also been recorded. To % To vote for him? In 1937, 64 per cent said they would 1937 64 18 8 Here is the trend: vote for a Catholic for President. In 1940 62 31 7 No a 1958 survey the percentage had in- 1958 68 25 7 Yes No Opin. creased to 68 per cent. Following the 1959 60 20 II % % % election of John F. Kennedy, a Roman 1960 71 20 9 1958 38 53 9 Catholic, the percentage jumped to 82 1961 82 :3 5 1963 47 45 8 per cent. 1963 84 :3 3 1965 59 34 7 The following tables show the trend 1965 87 10 3 1907 54 40 6 on willingness to vote for 1 Catholic TODAY Si) a 12 1969 67 23 10 and Jew: 1969 88 8 4 78 9/29 would you vote for a negroe for P? apr. 1969 yes 67 23 10 no. no G. Oreney FU9/28 9/27 Gallup- published portien of Horper ED poll on catholics in Time -need - entirety. G Dech Oneney re getting info TZ Havis 4 Galleyp Polling Dates Howard - cwc cel Hanis now Oneney - out of town Stone T Mul confirmed on 10/8 FU alza September 22, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. CHENEY FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Pursuant to our telephone conversation this morning about establishing a system to assure weekly contact by Counsellor Rumsfeld with the Gallup Organization, I have attached the schedule of political poll results as well as tomorrow's release on the economy. You will notice that tomorrow's release mentions the polling dates August 27-30. This indicates a new survey has been completed and the results are now available. Counsellor Rumsfeld could presumably obtain the results now that will be released over the next few weeks. The results may be those mentioned in the schedule that is also attached. Attachments: Gallup Release, September 23, 1971. Gallup Schedule. GS:elr THE WHITE HOUSE AS WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential September 20, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the White House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc. ) : 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country prosperous) -- the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely a The possibility of using polling contracts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve H Ltagit Disapprove Comment with it closelyt Dee of it wals. If approve. a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. Their is agood job on Gordonic part. L. September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: H. R. HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your meeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davies at Gallup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Cheney. THE WHITE HOUSE AS WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential September 20, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the White House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc.); 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country prosperous) -- the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely The possibility of using polling contacts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve H L truits Disapprove Comment with it closelyt Dec fit words. If approve, a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. Their is a good job on Godon'c part. L. September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: H. R. HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your meeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davies at Gallup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Chency. C:66:1m:BK:dg:08:cg , mon Fully FU Administratively Confidential well September 20, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the White House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. tropps from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc.); 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country propperous) -- the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely The possibility of using polling contacts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve Disapprove Comment If approve, a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. GS:1m cheney/Howord/ 9/14 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 9/9/9/17 TO: FROM: Happy GORDON STRACHAN Both Colson (Howard) and Devight are pushing Rumsfeld I check with both twice a week. MS September 1, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: CHARLES W. COLSON How are you making out with Gallup and Company. Things seem to have improved somewhat in the last couple of shots they've had. I'd like very much to compare notes with you at your convenience. Don't let the drgs Strachan - Fy, 9/17 FU at7 September 1, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: CHARLES W. COLSON How are you making out with Gallup and Company. Things seem to have improved somewhat in the last couple of shots they've had. I'd like very much to compare notes with you at your convenience. D.C 9/11 Rums - lunch Geo Galley on 9/16 This was an additional shat based on our conversation yesterday. Dick - - G DC 9/1 + he will also push Reemmy. FU Administratively Confidential q-20 September 13, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: DWIGHT CHAPIN DICK HOWARD FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Poll In light of the Gallup Poll which will appear in the papers tomorrow indicating that the President's popularity has remained at 50% in spite of the China trip announcement and the new economic policies, I imagine the interest in increasing our involvement with Gallup highten. Would you please keep pushing Rumsfeld toward some action on this matter. If he simply will not do it or cannot get results, obviously we will have to develop another approach. GS:1m September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: H. R. HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your meeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davies at Gallup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Cheney. HRH:GS:1m:BK:dg:GS:dg THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 9/25 TO: LR FROM: GORDON STRACHAN Pat with the Gallup/Rums Peld FU package. MEMORANDUM TO Gardon THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON September 22, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: BOB HALDEMAN FROM: DON RUMSFEL A. SUBJECT: Gallup Yes, I will take that responsibility; however, I would like to put it off a week and a half. I am going to be speaking most of next week out of the City, and will get together with Dwight on October 5 to work out the details. Pending that, he should keep on his contacts. Suptomber 17, 1971 AS INDUSTANT BY C IDMORPATION FOR: FROM: it. C. SUNDER: Callen Organization Your scating yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpitl. is you know, Dright Chesin has been talking with John Davies se Calley, out air success in coquiring tircly information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the ton management of Callap Organization would you assise ? personal responsibility ior weekly calls to George Gallen concerning poll results? Pho follow through Cotails of workly contact with Coorce callus, Jr. colla be handled Ly order Derechas an. punsibly City Chency. HRH:GS:1m:BK:dg:GS:dg THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: 9/22 TO: Duright Chapin FROM: GORDON STRACHAN FYI Jung THE WHITE HOUSE AS WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential September 20, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the Whit House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc. ) ; 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country prosperous) -- the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely The possibility of using polling contracts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve H L trusts Disapprove Comment with it closelyt Dee fit words. If approve, a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. Their is agoal job on Gordonic part. L. September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: DON RUMSFELD FROM: H. R. HALDEMAN SUBJECT: Gallup Organization Your meeting yesterday with George Gallup, Jr. should prove helpful. As you know, Dwight Chapin has been talking with John Davies at Gallup, but his success in acquiring timely information has been limited. To assure continued contact with the top management of Gallup Organization would you assume personal responsibility for weekly calls to George Gallup concerning poll results? The follow through details of weekly contact with George Gallup, Jr. could be handled by Gordon Strachan and possibly Dick Cheney. Davies/Smyth THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential December 6, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Trial Heats Sept 3-16 Dwight Chapin called John Davies at the Gallup Organization to obtain the trial heat results from the poll conducted November 19-22. Davies called me with the results, which are based on registered voters, not the entire population: Score 1 Nixon Kennedy Wallace Undecided . 44 42 41 40 10 9 5 9 for Strachan. L. These are final figures and will be published Thursday, December 9. Preliminary figures, which may change slightly before publica- tion on Sunday, December 12, are: 8-11 Oct Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided 43 44 Y/ 44 35 354137 13 10 9512 5 Nixon Humphrey Wallace Undecided 4642 37 38 12 " 11 5 9 Nixon McGovern Wallace Undecided 49 33 12 6 If you cover these figures with the President, you may want to remind him that Mr. & Mrs. George Gallup, Jr. will be his guests at the Medici State Dinner tomorrow night, December 7. Pop- 19-22: probable Seen- mon; doesnt 12/8 Note change in May 7-10 figures. Call Gallup. The ( allup Poll For Release: Friday, Ju. 4, 197 Muskie, Kennedy and Humphrey In Close Race with Nixon for 1972 By George Gallup Copyright. 1971. American Institute of Public Opinion. All rights reserved. (2) The candidates being tested must Reproduction in whole or part strictly be known to at least 80 per cent of prohibited. except with written consent of the copyright holders. all persons in the sample. Candidates known to fewer than this percentage are unduly penalized by lack of aware- To get some idea of the national Nixon - Muskie Wallace ness. political situation ai this early stage, Feb. '70 Latest suppose the presidential election Nivon were being held TODAY. If Rich- 47% 39% Per Cent Who Have Heard PRINCETON, N. J.. June ; Scn. Only 3 Men Muslie PASS Test and Nixon were the Republican can. 35 11. Something About Ld: and Must It of Maine. Sen. Hubert Wallace 13 12 Only three 121(1) of those currently didate and (name of Democrat be- (Based 011 all persons H phrey of Minnesota and Sen. 11 Undecided ing tested) were the Democratic can- 5 8 In survey) ward Kennedy of Massachusetts each being discussed as possible presidential didate and George Wallace Till again Edward Kinds run an extremely close race with Presi- candidates in 1972 pass this awareness Nixon - Kennedy Wallace dent Nixon in the latest nationwide test: Kennedy, known to 94 per cent; as a third party candidate, which Habert Humphrey of Feb. '70 Latest Hun phrey. 94 per cent; and Muskie, would you like io see win? denand Muslae 55 Gallup survey Nixon 19% 42% Lugene McCarthy 78 85 per cent. Mushie bolds a short edge at this Democrats Have Kennedy 35 41 John Lindsav 77 Falling just below this awareness Wallace II TO time 11 per CODE to Nixon's 39 per Closed 'Gap' J. William Fulbright 7- level are Lugene McCartiv (known to Undecided (CTT. but the percentages are too close All three Democrats tested in the 5 7 Mike Mansfield (") to be statistically conclusive. Nixon 78 per cent of persons): Mayor John latest trial heats have registered con- George McGovern 68 Lindsay of New York, 77 per cent; Nixon - Humphrey Wallace wins 4? per cent compared to 41 per siderable gains over the last 15 months. Villiam Proxmire 48 Sen. William Fulbright, 72 per cent; Feb. '70 Latest cent for Kennedy. and bolds a 42 to A February. 1970. trial heat showed Harold Hughes c Sen Mike Mansfield. 69 per cent; and Nixon 50% 42% 39 per cent edge over Humphrey. Nixon with a 12-point Lead over Mus- Wilbar Mills 16 Sen. George McGovern, 68 per cent. Humplirey 33 39 The findings reported today are based kic, a 1.1-point lead over Kennedy and Birch Bank 35 Wallace 13 I2 on and have 3 procedure introduced In a recent New York Times article, an 17-point lead over Humplitey. Home Jackson 29 Undecided 4 7 by Gallup Poll in 1939 to measure the Senator Kennedy stated that he will not As reported earlier, Kennedy out- be a candidate for President in 1972. The following question was asked in Kennedy Fares Better relative strength of potential candidates distances Muskie in terms of the nomi- Some political observers, however, CX- a recent national survey to determine In California Poll J: a given point in time. nation choices of Democratic voters. candidate awareness levels among the Senator Kennedy rens stronger peet him to throw his hat into the However, Muskie matches Kennedy's general public: The California Poll than he does Two Requirements presidential ring. current trial heat vote (41 per cent) the nationwide Gallop Poll On Must Be Observed To produce the findings reported to. because he has wider appeal than Ken- will you please look over this list 14. 7% Calif Pall (Lickl Resear Expensive gamed in such surveys day, a total of 1502 persons, 18 and nedy with Independent voters and Re- (respondent was banded card with AVOT rer decides shows that to pro- older. were interviewed in person by publicans. the names of 13 men " in have been Corporation of California) shout due a realistic appraisal of candidate trained Gallup interviewers working in Support for Gov. George Wallace discussed atf possible presidential can- Kennedy with a " to is per cent over NINON, with cent Wall. strength two requirements must be ob- more than ;00 scientifically selected didates) and tell me bich of these of Alabama - third party candidate and 8 per cent undecided Niven served: localities across the nation. Interview- in 1968 and a possible third party can- men. il any. you have heard some- Muskie are virtually tied. with 14 (1) The vote in these trial heat: ing was conducted May 7 through 10. didate again in 1972 shows virtually thing about? cent for Nivon and is per cent must be limited to persons who are This question was asked of the 1088 no sign of having changed over this The following table shows the aware- Muskie, while Nixon currently egistered to vote - approximately 75 persons who are currently registered to 15-month period, as the following table ness levels. ranked from the highest a is to " per cent lead over R. For cent of all adults. vote: indicates: percentage to the lowest: phrey in California The Gallup Poll For Release: Thursday, Dec. 9, 1971 Only 3 Percentage Points Behind Kennedy Moves Into Close Race with Nixon By George Gallup Copyright, 1971, Field Enterprises, Inc. 1972 nomination, holding a five-point Until mid-summer Kennedy and PRINCITON N. J., Dec. 8 - Sen. lead over runner-up Sen. Edmund Muskie were running neck-and-neck in Edward Kennedy has moved into a close Wallace Vote Muskie of Maine. Democrats in the lat- the nomination choices of Democrats, race with President Nixon and now Holding Level Here are the results in terms of age est survey were asked to choose from with the exception of a survey con- trails him by only three percentage a list of seven, the man they would ducted last Spring when Kennedy brief- points. In the latest trial heat. Nixon Gov. George Wallace of Alabama, a of the survey respondent: like to see as their party's standard ly spurted into an eight-point lead over wins the support of 44 per cent of possible third party candidate next Ken- Wal- Un- registered voters, compared to 41 per year, wins TO per cent of the vote na- bearer next year. Muskie. cent for Kennedy and TO per cent for tionally in the latest trial heat, main- Nixon nedy lace dec. Wallace. taining about the same level of support % % % % that he has received in all previous Under 30 yrs. 33 55 7. 5 Coming Sunday! The gap between Nixon and Ken- races against Nixon and Kennedy. 30-49 yrs. 45 40 II 4 nedy, a possible 1972 Democratic nom- 50 & older 48 36 II 5 inee. is the smallest recorded since the The trial heat reported today is based on personal interviews with registered Here are the results by the four - Latest Trial Heat Races! - Spring of 1969. voters in a total sample of 1503 adults, major regions of the nation: In a trial heat conducted in May. 18 and older, who were interviewed Ken- Wal- Un- How Do These Men Fare Against Nixon? 1971, Nixon held a point lead over in more than 300 scientifically selected Nixon nedy lace dec. Kennedy, winning 49 per cent of the localities across the nation during the % % % E° vote of registered voters, to 35 per cent period Nov. 19-22. This question was East 42 44 7 7 for Kennedy, II per cent for Wallace asked: Midwest 47 43 7 3 and 5 per cent undecided. To get some idea of the national South 46 30 20 4 political situation at this early stage. West 40 49 6 5 Kennedy Strong suppose the presidential election Following are the results of trial With Young Voters were being held TODAY. If Rich- heats with Nixon, Kennedy and Wal- Kennedy owes his strong showing ard Nixon were the Republican can- lace since January, 1971: largely to voters under 30. who give didate and Edward Kennedy were him 55 per cent of their vote to 33 the Democratic candidate and George Nixon vs. Kennedy VS. Wallace per cent for the President. By con- Wallace ran again as a third party Ken- Wal- Un: trast, Nixon holds a 12-point lead over candidate, which would you like 10 Nixon nedy lace dec. Kennedy among persons 50 and older. see win? % % % % Not since the Gallup Poll began Nov. 19-22 44 41 10 these trial heat measurements in 1935 Here are the latest results for the 5 May 7-10 49 35 II 5 has such a difference been found on the nation: March 12-14 46 38 II basis of the age of survey respondents. Nixon 5 44% 38 6 Senator Muskie Senator Humphrey Senator McGovern Kennedy Jan. 9-10 47 9 41 President Nixon and Senator Ken- Wallace IO nedy are now evenly matched in the Kennedy Is Top Choice Be sure to read the GALLUP POLL. this Sunday. in the Undecided East and Midwest but Kennedy leads 5 For 1972 Nomination (NAME OF PAPER) in the West while Nixon leads in the Senator Kennedy is currently the top South. 100% choice of Democratic voters for the The Gallup Poll For Release: Thursday, Dec. 9, 1971 Only 3 Percentage Points Behind Kennedy Moves Into Close Race with Nixon By George Gallup Copyright, 1971, Field Enterprises, Inc. 1972 nomination, holding a five-point Until mid-summer Kennedy and PRINCETON, N. J., Dec. 8 - Sen. lead over runner-up Sen. Edmund Muskie were running neck-and-nak in Edward Kennedy has invoved into a close Wallace Vote Muskie of Maine. Democrats in the lat- the nomination choices of Democrats, race with President Nixon and now Holding Level Here are the results in terms of age est survey were asked to choose from with the exception of a survey con- trails him by only three percentage a list of seven, the man they would ducted last Spring when Kennedy brief- points. In the latest trial heat, Nixon Gov. George Wallace of Alabama, a of the survey respondent: like to see as their party's standard ly spurted into an eight-point lead over wins the support of 44 per cent of possible third party candidate next Ken- Wal- Un- registered voters, compared to 41 per year, wins TO per cent of the vote na- bearer next year. Muskie. Nixon nedy lace dec. cent for Kennedy and 10 per cent for tionally in the latest trial heat, main- Wallace. taining about the same level of support % % % % that he has received in all previous Under 30 yrs. 33 55 7 5 Coming Sunday! The gap between Nixon and Ken- races against Nixon and Kennedy. 30-49 yrs. 45 40 II 4 nedy a possible 1972 Democratic nom- 50 & older 48 36 II 5 inee. is the smallest recorded since the The trial heat reported today is based Here are the results by the four - Latest Trial Heat Races! - on personal interviews with registered Spring of 1069. voters in a total sample of 1503 adults, major regions of the nation: In a trial heat conducted in May, 18 and older, who were interviewed Ken- Wal- Un- How Do These Men Fare Against Nixon? 1976, Nivon held .4 point lead over in more than 300 scientifically selected Nixon only has dec. Kennedy, winning 42 per cent of the localities across the nation during the % % % of vote of recistered voters, to 35 per cent period Nov. 19-22. This question was East 42 44 7 7 for Kennedy, 11 per cent for Wallace asked: Midwest 47 43 7 3 and 3 1st cent underided To get some idea of the national South 46 30 20 4 political situation at this early stage. West 40 49 6 5 Kennedy Strong With Young Voters suppose the presidential election Following are the results of trial were being held TODAY. If Rich- heats with Nixon, Kennedy and Wal. Kennedy owes his strong showing and Nixon were the Republican can- lace since January, 1971: largely to voters under 30, who give didate and Edward Kennedy were him 55 per cent of their vote to 33 the Democratic candidate and George Nixon VN. Kennedy VR. Wallace per cent for the President. By con- Wallace ran again as a third party Ken- Wal- Un- trast, Nixon holds a repoint lead over candidate, which would you like to Nixon nody lace' doc. Kennedy among persons 50 and older. see win? % % % % Not since the Gallup Poll began Here are the latest results for the Nov. 19-22 44 41 10 5 these trial heat measurements in 1935 nation: May 7-10 49 35 II 5 has such a difference been found on the March Nixon 12-14 46 38 II , basis of the age of survey respondents. Kennedy Jan. 9-10 47 6 Senator Muskle 38 Senator Humphrey Senator McGovern 9 President Nixon and Senator Ken- 4T Wallace 10 nedy are now evenly matched in the Kennedy Is Top Choice Be sure to read the GALLUP POLL. this Sunday, in the Undecided Fast and Midwest but Kennedy leads , For 1972 Nomination (NAME OF PAPER) in the West while Nixon leads in the Senator Kennedy is currently the top South. 100% choice of Democratic voters for the FU John Davies or Bol Smyth 12/7 P2/3 too the nor. P. pop? poll - no & no trial, next pop on Tues, 10,11 + 12 results christmas just before BA - reported in (Odays no final figures - not avail Centil early next week both - Oct 29- noe & / 2 different FU. cropin & THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 17, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR H.R. HALDEMAN FROM : GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT : Gallup Contact On Friday, November 12 at about 10:00 a. m. we received the Gallup trial heat information ready for release Sunday, November 14. Copies were delivered to you and Larry immediately. At approximately 2:00 p.m. Friday, Larry called me to ask to get the popularity results from Gallup. At 2:05 p.m. I called Dick Cheney in Don Rumsfeld's office to advise him that we needed the Gallup popularity figures. He said he would ask the Counsellor to call after they made the 3:00 p.m. guideline dead- lines. Cheney specifically agreed to have Counsellor Rumsfeld get the popularity figures. I also called Dwight Chapin on Friday (exact time unknown to either) to mention that we had the trial heat results and therefore would need the popularity figures. Dwight informed me that he was trying to get the day to day responsibility of calling John Davies to me. Rumsfeld agreed with this approach. You disagreed (memo attached). - 25 relayed this fact to Con Monday no as you can we by his note he was told twice. The question is whether I asked Dwight Chapin to obtain the Gallup popularity figures. I asked Dick Cheney to have Rumsfeld get the popularity figures; I talked to Dwight about the same subject (he recalls discussion of the recent trial results) so I asked Dwight also to get the Gallup popularity figures. I did not mention the Gallup poll by specific date, however. Once Dwight reached John Davies at Gallup (late Monday, Nov. 15) he did not cover the popularity question but did have agreement with Davies that I was to be the contact. I called John Davies before 5:00 p. m on Monday and he had left for the day. Two calls to him yesterday went unanswered, so I have yet to talk with John Davies. Backup memoranda and notes are attached. Dcne invite Davies MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 15, 1971 9:00 a.m. MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. GORDON STRACHAN FROM: DWIGHT L. CHAPIN SUBJECT: Gallup Once in touch with John Davies, we will have you set as the daily contact for information, Larry insinuated the other day that I was to carry on as the contact, but that next to impossible, especially with the next few months' travel schedule in mind. Don't want to hanass lrst working arrange- helpful for plaing DC in ul Gon luner make A posible DC Davies THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 12, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR H.R. HALDEMAN FROM : GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT : Gallup Popularity Figures Dwight Chapin cannot reach his contact, John Davies, at Gallup. He is out until late tonight. Don Rumsfeld was asked to obtain the infor- mation, but Dick Channey reports that Rumsfeld has been too busy getting guidelines out today. Rumsfeld will not be asked to obtain figures in the future. Chapin suggests that I have the responsibility to get such information from Davies. Unfor- tunately, Davies has not returned Chapin's calls for the last two days. Chapin continue as Davies contact. Strachan becomes Gallup contact. Other (hapin/chenes The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, Nov. 14, 1971 'Showdown' Test Between the Two Men Kennedy Falls 11 Points Behind Muskie As Nomination Choice of Democrats By George Gallup Muskie Holds Wide Lead Over Copyright, 1971, Field Enterprises, Inc. Kennedy in 'Showdown' Test PRINCITON N. J., Nov. 13 - Sen. Views of Democrats Registered to Vote: Edward Kennedy now trails Sen. Ld. mund Muskie by "I points as the choice of Democratic voters for the 1972 noteination, after having led Muskie by 3 points in the same kind of two- Suppose the choice for President way "showdown" test in March. in the Democratic convention in 1972 Harrous down to Edmund Muskie is currently the choice of Muskie and Edward Kennedy. Which 52 per cent of Democrats uslin are ONE would you prefer to have the registered to vote. compared to 39 per Democratic convention select? cent for Kennedy and " per cent unde- cided. In March. Kennedy led. 46 to Views of Democrats 43 per cent. with JI per cent underided. Registered to Vote Latest March Muskie GALLUP 50% 43% POLL* EXCLUSIVE Kennedy 39 46 Senator Muskie Senator Kennedy Undecided 11 11 50% 39% - Holds Same 100% 100% Lead Over HHH Undecided: 11% - narrows down to Muskie and Muskie also holds a 50 39 per cent Humpbrey? lead over Sen. Hubert Humphrey in Latest March the latest two-way test In the March Muskie 50% 46% survey. the margin was 16 per cent for Humphrey 39 39 Muskie and 39 per cent for Humphrey. Lindsay Wins he not long ago switched from the Undecided 11 15 Humphrey's support. unlike Ken- Vote of in 4 Republican to the Democratic party. - nealy's has remained the same since Mayor Lindsay of New York, who A total of 1562 adults, 18 and older, 100% 100% March Humphrey's vote, 39 per cent, many think will soon throw his hat were interviewed in person in the latest - narrows down to Muskie and now equals Kennedy's in match-ups against Muskie. into the presidential ring, wins 25 per survey, which was conducted in more Lindsay? cent of the vote of registered Demo- than 300 scientifically selected localities Latest The change since March in the "show- crats, to 58 per cent for Muskie, with across the nation during the period Muskie 58% down" choices of Democrats who are another 17 per cent undecided. October 29-Nov. I. Following are the Lindsay 25 registered to vote closely parallels the questions asked and the results based Undecided 17 change found among all persons be- Lindsay's support might be consider- on the Democrats in the sample who tween the two survey. ed impressive in view of the fact that are registered to vote: 100% 1) 11/12 2 - Cheney 205 St. Ain - 12/7 Mrs.Gergerge Gallup, Sr? Galleep - no results yet will tryte get pop fees reg's out at 3p Rums wants to be there also The Gallup Poll For Release: Friday, June 9, 1972 Now Leads Among Democrats, Independents Combined McGovern's Dramatic Gains Due to Independents; Wallace Seen Winning Strong Sympathy Vote By George Gullup Copyright, 1972, Wallace, however, is ahead of both Field Enterprises, Inc. men, winning the support of 31 per dependents than among Democrats. cent of Democrats and Independents Even during the early period of the combined. March 2.1-27 31 5 17 primaries. McGovern ran virtually even A total of 661 Democrats and 489 III. Primary: March 21 A with Humphrey among this group. Fol- Independents. out of a total sample of Fla. Primary March 14 PET' CTION NJ June 8 In the lowing the Massachusetts and Pennsyl- 1540 adults 18 and older, were inter- - N. 11 Primary: March 7 show period of 10st the nouths, McGovern vania primaries, however, McGovern viewed in person in the latest survey March 3-6 6 Hun has J tise 111 popularity recorded a surge of popularity with 3T 15 which was conducted May 24 to May trial been etable to the remarkable performs. Independents - from 18 per cent to 29. This question as asked: Choices of Independents 4: of Republic endell Willkie in 26 per cent. For 1972 Nomination of case nom newl that Here is of list of people " has have This sharp upturn for McGovern been mentioned .1 possible prest- (from list) we Phomas Deney as the among Independents occurred roughly dential candulates for the morratic 101, Repablican V ters for Survey Dates one month after a similar jump among invistion the eve of the on. party in 1972 ONI would florry IIIIII McGovern Wallace Democrats from 5 per cent to 17 you like to 'ee immated as the per cent following the Wisconsin pri- : Democratic candadate for President % % Wallace Leads Among 1: at the trend in McGov. in 1972? May 26-29 11 25 36 Independent Voters mary. ettes support reveals the following: 3. Better educated. Ligher-income The following b'es show the trend Oregon Pumary May 23 M. on fal. In earls spring inten. McGovern bolds an advantage in support for Hun phrey. McGovern April 28- M.C. 150 the support of only five over Humphrey and Wallace in that. and Wallace among Independents and May 18 26 22 em of Pt as nation wide, as among both Depocrats and Indepen- Democrats. Both survey dates and pri- A H "ter and by national survey in dent, he appeals far more to college-ed- Mass.. Pa. Primaries: April 25 mary are given w's Documents were asked to give meated and higher income persons. April 21-24 18 IS 26 earls M Our %P done rom a list n° n leading These groups vote in greater proportions Choice of Democrats over pasi fentral possibilities. In the latest III the primaries and work harder to For 1972 Nomination W.s. Primary: April 4 among natural survey. conducted in ate May, get supporters to the polls. Among (from list) March 24-27 16 15 21 est proor to the ( a formia primary, he Democrats and Independents with a Surrey Dates III Primary March 21 done in a word three w tie with his lead college background. for example, Mc- IIIIH M.Gorern Wallace Ha. Primary. March 14 IIV. evals He WITH the vote of 25 per Govern is preferred over Humphrey by % % % N. 11 Primary: March 7 att Democrats "13 16 per cent for a 3-10-1 margin. $ Wath Hum lirev and cent for Wallace. May 26.29 26 25 26 March 3-6 II II 23 McGovern Leads HHH P previous survey showed Hum- By Seven Points Ore. Primary May 23 Trial Heats Show McGovern's play WHO 1 wide lead wirning the Md. Pram. n: May 16 ben the choices of Democrats and Strength with Independents in early May to 26 per per cent o! Democrats na- houside to 30 per ent for N Govern Independents in the latest survey are April 28- McGovern's greater appeal than est survey. and now 1** with and McCoscon combined. McGovern emerges ahead of May 35 20 18 etal AP in Vallace Humphrey with Indej endents is seen Hamphrey for the first time. He leads Mars. Pa Provaries: April 25 not only in his suport as any this > Govern Humplite by the margin of seven per- April 21-21 group for the not markin but " test 30 constetutive be stronge among 17 19 centage points, 26 per cent to 14) per rates against Presio ent Name and Gov dir,ty throughes as In cent Primary you , V. allaws The Gallup Poll For Release: Friday, June 2, 1972 Cuts HHII Lead from 18 to 6 Points McGovern Closing Gap on Humphrey in Nationwide Poll of Democratic Voters By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Cuts Humphrey's Lead McGovern's Gains Most From 18 Points to 6 Showdown Test (Based on Pronounced in South has consistently been far stronger Hum- Choices of Democrats, Nationwide) Analysis of the survey findings by phrey, however, consinues to bold a (In Showdown Test Among April 28- region shows that McGovern's gains fairly wide margin over his rival in Democrats) May 26-29 May 1 over the last month have come about this region PHT ION J June A % % largely in the South, where Humphrey Outside the South the rate is er. na" wh serve of Delevera IC voters. Humphrey 49 54 tremely close. with Hun placey holding McGovern Monday have Set George 43 36 Coming Sunday! shght edge. Undecided 8 10 distering dramate gains on Sen 9 bert Hump! res in the race for the nommation 100% 100% McGovern Has Greates has cad to head contest McCovern Appeal with Activists with Hump by only SEX per- " atte being b.hind by The turnout rate in primaries is a How the American 111 a survey conducted one frequently overlooked but important 111 earlier factor in assessing the political situa- tion. Only 30 to 40 per cent of Dem- People Rate Nixon MA political observers no's we the ocrats, on the average, have participated THE the Der are nomination to in this year's primaries to date. By way After Summit do between " 0 men umphrey of contrast, about two-thirds of the na- Jr. ] M.Covern The two nen will tional electorate vote in presidential das 11 the Calife mia principy June elections. Meeting the victor 11 that election win- 500 an of that tat 271 de egates McGovern has an advantage over Humphrey which could show up in Cali- I determ the stronger of the forma This is his great appeal to Pre-ident Richard Nixon Democrats. the Gallup Pull limited better-educated and higher-income Dem- the sable neld If Democratic hopefuls ocrats who vote in greater proportions A nationwide survey of the American electorate. just COIP- to her two men, WITH this question: than the rest of the Democratic elec- pleted, will show the impact of the historic meeting between Soviet leader Brezhnev and President Nixon on the President's for Frontent torate, popularity. Nixon was the first chief executive ever to make 2 Dongrate content on this The findings reported today are based state visit to Moscow. in works down 111 Hube Hum- on personal interviews with 631 persons in 1941 George M.Garem Which who classify themselves as Democrats How will the President's latest popularity rating compare 0'1 1.. alls the SEN. GEORGE McGOVERN in a total sample of 1451 adults. 18 with that recorded after his China trip? In an early March P. contention that? and older. Interviewing was conducted (post-China) survey, 56 per cent of citizens expressed an royal May 26-29 in more than 300 scienti- of Nixon's performance his highest rating III 4 months. The 1. lowing is the trend, based on sur- fically selected localities in the nation. figure slipped slightly in a subsequent survey to 53 per cent. ver, taken one mot apart: The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, May 28, 1972 Special In-Depth Analysis McGovern Seen as More Innovative, Less of a Politician Than Humphrey and Wallace By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. PRINCETON N.J. May 27 - The American public views Son. George Mc. Govern 25 less of a politician. more modern in sryle and offering more in- novative solutions to national problems HHH: Too Much of in CITY of his chief Democratic A Politician' sidered by larger percentages of voters We are trying to find out how male Sen Hubert Humphrey of Minn- to be non-intellectual and as taking ex- people think of the leading candi- Child and Gov. George Wallace of Humphrey is considered "too much treme positions on issues. dates. As / name a candidate. would Alabama. of a politician" by a slightly larger per- you read off from each pair of state- Says what he centage than select this statement for Penalized by Being ments on this card the one that comes believes 48 28 14 At the same time. the public per- Wallace and a considerably larger per- Long on Scene closest to your own feelings about Changes what Leises McGovern as no more extreme centage than use the statement to des- Humphrey, having been involved as that candidate? he says to fit in his political positions than Hum- cribe McGovern. a key figure in Democratic party activity audience Following are the percentages based is 20 29 placev and far less so than Wallace. for a quarter century. represents an The finding is of particular interest Similarly. more persons choose the "old fate" on the American political on the total sample. Certain of the You know where i. as votne political observers following phrases to describe Hum- statements have been abbreviated due he stanes.0 phrey than either McGovern or Wal- scene. It is, therefore, perhaps not sur- to lack of space. issues 39 30 25 : Lie characterized McGovern as the lace: "He changes what he says to fit prising that he is perceived as somewhat Hard to know of the Democratic party." his audience": "it is hard to know where less than modern in his approach or in- Statements Selected by where le he stands on issues." novative in his solutions to national Voters to Describe stands 15 21 25 Style 14 Important problems. Factor in Support Also, more voters think Humphrey Top Three Candidates Colorful. Support for a candidate depends on projects an uninteresting or dull image Political observers generally place Wal- Mc- interesti a number of factors in luding his per- than does either McGovern or Wallace. Humphrey near the center of the politi- lace Govern HIIH personality 33 31 26 Dull. un- cerved personality. character and "style." cal spectrum within the Democratic % % % Wallace Seen As party - between Wallace on the right Puts country's interesting 13 17 14 In view of the importance of Most Frank and McGovern on the left. In seeking to interest ahead Presents hs these factors it is instructive to Wallace is the most likely to be 10. appeal to both the liberal and conser- of politics 20 29 22 ideas dearly 32 36 25 examine the mare currently projected garded as frank and unequivocating in vative wings of his party. Humphrey Too much of Presents ideas in by each of the three leading Demo. making his political positions known. has taken a moderate or middle posi- a politician 26 22 35 vague. confused (TJT) contenders. Larger percentages of the public asso- tion on key issues which may be per- Old fashioned manner 14 15 21 A scientifically selected sample of ciate the following statements with ceived by some as equivocating or in style 28 13 29 Intellectual 21 43 35 Wallace than with McGovern: "You de electorate was asked to select. from "fence-sitting." Modern in style 14 33 16 Non-intell ectual 20 6 9 a list of nine pairs of statements. the know where he stands on issues," and The findings reported today are based Has innovative Extremist. takes statement in each pair that comes clos- "he says what he believes no matter on in-person interviews with a total solutions to extreme est to their own feelings about Sen. to whom he is speaking." Humphrey scores least well on these statements. sample of 1542 adults, 18 and older, problems 16 35 24 positions 46 13 IT Hubert Humpliney of Minnesota, Sen. interviewed April 28-May I in more Old fashioned A moderate George McGovern of South Dakota In contrast to either of his Demo- than 300 localities across the nation. solutions to takes moderate and Gov. George Wallace of Alabama. cratic rivals, however, Wallace is con- This question was asked: problems 25 9 18 positions 9 33 11 The Gallup Poll For Release: Friday, May 26, 1972 Blacks a Key Source of Humphrey's Strength McGovern Trails HHH by Slim 4-Point Margin in Both East and Far West By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Vote by Race Humphrey's current national lead over the top contenders for the PRINCETON N. J., May 25 - Al- Democratic nomination, in terms of his though Sen. Hubert Humphrey holds a appeal among grassroots Democrats, is substantial lead over his nearest rival, due in large measure to his popularity -- Vote by Education - Sen. George McGovern. among rank- with Blacks. McGovern scores well with the bet- andifile Democrats nationally, his mar- Among Black Democrats, Humphrey ter-educated Democrats while Hum- = over the South Dakota Senator is is selected over McGovern by the ratio phrey's base of support is among the a Im four points in both the East and of seven-to-one. party faithful who have not gone past is Far West. Outside the South, for example, high school in formal education. Hairy irey's national margin over Humphrey's margin over McGovern is Democrats with a college background Outside South 32 23 12 ducted between Ap il 21 and May 1. M Govern is due largely to his strength slim, 29 to 26 per cent. when Blacks lean heavily to McGovern over Hum- South 33 10 33 in heartland America ------ the Midwest Interviews were conducted in person are excluded from the sample. How- phrey, 36 per cent to 22 per cent. On and the South in more than 300 scientifically selected ever, for the total population in this the other hand, a mere 9 per cent of Whites 28 21 22 localities across the nation. In the Midwest, Humphrey holds a region, including both races, Humphrey Democrats with only a grade school Blacks 54 8 3 commanding 19-point lead over Mc. has a wide 32 to 23 per cent lead. education choose Govern, compared Each Democrat in the surveys was to 39 per cent who pick Humphrey. Whites Govern. while in the South he holds shown a card listing the names of The importance of the Black vote to outside South 29 26 a 22 point lead over les rival. as de- 13 ten leading candidates and asked the Humphrey is also apparent in the South. returned by 4 survey of Democrats ask- - Vote by Age - Southern whites 24 10 42 following question: ed to select their top nomination choice Among Southern white Democrats Democrats under 30 years of age are Which ONE of the people on this from a list of ten people. only, Humphrey is far outstripped by about evenly divided between Hum- Manual workers 34 15 19 list would you like to see nominated Wallace, 42 to 24 per cent. But when phrey and McGovern, while older Dem- Unskilled 37 12 17 as the Democratic candidate for Pres. Governor Wallace runs a distant Blacks are included in the sample, the ocrats, so and older, lean three-to-one Skilled 28 19 22 ident " 1972? third - behind Humphrey and Mc- race is a virtual stand-off between Hum- to Humphrey over McGovern. Govern in all regions except the phrey and Wallace. South In the South however, Walface Following are the results in tabular College The national figures for the latest background 22 36 10 two surveys combined show Humplirey thes Humpliney for the lead with each form, based on the three most fre- - Vote by Occupation - High school 33 18 20 with 33 per cent, McGovern and Wal- receiving 13 per cent of the vote quently selected aspirants: Humphrey and McGovern run vir- Grade school 39 9 20 lace each with 10 per cent: others and it Demo rats. McGovern with TO per tually neck-and-neck in most key OC- Choices of Democrats undecided. 29 per cent. cent THIS & weak third in this region. cupation groups, with the exception of (from list of 10 persons) Under 30 The latter of the two surveys. report- Following is an analysis of the nomi- manual workers. Mc- Wal- years old 27 25 18 ed May 1. shows Humphrey with 35 nation choices of Democrats by key Humphrey is preferred by a large HHH Govern face 30-49 years 31 21 18 per cent. McGovern with 20 per cent, croups in the population. The results % % % 50 & older 37 13 19 margin over McGovern among manual and Wallace with 18 per cent. The are based on the latest two surveys, workers who identify themselves as East 28 24 14 This analysis is based on interviews earlier of the two surveys showed Hum. which were combined in order to pro- Democrats, 34 to 15 per cent. The West 28 24 10 with 1317 Democrats out of a total phrey with 30 per cent, Wallace with vide large enough sample bases for margin is somewhat less among skilled Midwest 40 21 10 sample of 3098 adults, 18 and older, 19 per cent, McGovern with 17 per certain groups. workers than among the unskilled. South 33 10 33 reached in two national surveys con- cent. The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, May 21, 1972 Independent Vote is Key Reason McGovern Now as Strong as Humphrey In Test Races Against President Nixon By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Until the latest two surveys, Mc- Govern's performance had consistent- PRINCETON N. )., May 20 In ly failed to match Humphrey's in these test election contests. the two latest attonwide surveys conducted one week apart Sen. Strong Among George McGovera demonstrates for the Independents first time that he is as strong a vote- getter as Sen Hubert Humpbrey in The fact that McGovern currently test faces against President Nixon. offers as strong a challenge to Nixon among the total electorate as does Hum- If Wallace The President. however, continues to phrey is due in large measure to Mc- Does Not Run hold at wide though reduced lead over Govern's relatively greater strength Further evidence of McGovern's ap- date and George McGovern (Hubert To gain insight into how the presi- both Humplites and McGovern. who among voters who describe themselves peal with the Independent bloc is seen Humpbrey) were the Democratic dential race would be affected if Wal- most political observers consider to be as Independents. in that McGovern is the top choice of candidate, and George Wallace ran lace does not run as a third party can- the two most viable contenders at the In the latest trial heat, McGovern Independent voters, who were asked again as a third party candidate, didate this year, survey respondents present time. wins the support of 31 per cent of which one of ten leading contenders which would you like to see win? who selected Wallace in the trial heat In the latest nationwide survey. com- Independent voters, when matched they would like to be the Democratic standard-bearer. He is picked by 27 Following are the trends in the case question were then asked how they pleted in early May. Nison holds an against Nixon and Wallace, compared would vote if their candidate were not of each trial heat: eight point lead over McGovern He to 18 per cent for Humphrey, as re- per cent, compared to 18 per cent for in the race. with the support of 43 per cent of vealed in the following tables: Humphrey and 21 per cent for Wallace. Nixon McGovern Wallace The results show that Humphrey and registered voters to 35 per cent for Humphrey, however, is number one Mc- Wal- Un- McGovern would each benefit about McGovern and -5 per cent for Gov. Choices of Independent with voters who describe themselves Nixon Govern lace dec. equally from Wallace's withdrawal: George Wallace, J possible third party Voters Nationwide as Democrats, selected by 35 per cent. % % % % candidate this ye.r. Nixon 40% compared to 20 per cent for McGovern April 28- Trial Heats with The President's margin over Hum- McGovern 31 and 18 per cent for Wallace. May 43 35 15 7 Wallace Not Included phrey is three percentage poin greater Wallace 21 The latest trial heats are based on April 21-24 45 32 16 7 Nixon 49% than against McCovern, but this differ- Undecided 8 in-person interviews with a total of April 15-16 46 31 15 8 McGovern 39 ence cannot be considered statistically Undecided 12 100% 1180 registered voters out of a total additicant Nixon wins the support Nixon Humphrey Wallace sample of 1542 adults interviewed April of 45 per cent in the latest survey. to Wal- Un. 28-May I in more than 300 localities 100% 34 per cent for Humplirey and 15 per Nixon 49% Nixon HIIH lace dec. Humphrey 18 across the nation. This question was ent for Wallace asked: % % % % Nixon 50% Wallace 22 April 28 Humphrey 38 In the earlier e two most recent Undecided II Suppose the presidential election May I 45 34 15 6 Undecided 12 surveys, McGovern also ran as were being beld TODAY. If Richard April 21-24 44 31 16 9 strongly as Humpliey agains. Nixon. 100% Nixon were the Republican candi- March 24-27 46 35 15 4 10077 The Gallup Poll For Release: Friday, May 19, 1972 Both ПНН, McGovern Register Gains Humphrey Holds Clear Lead Over 1972 Field By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. PRINCETON, N. J, May 18 - Sen. Hubert Humphrey continues to hold a clear lead over the field of Democratic hopefuls, winning 35 per cent of the vote of Democrats for the presidential nomination. McGovern is in second place. winning 20 per cent of the support of Democrats, having registered a dramatic 15-point gain in just over a month. Gov. George Wallace is close be- hind McGovern. winning 18 per cent of the vote in the survey, which was con- ducted two weeks prior to the recent attempt on his life. The latest results are based on inter- views with Democrats in a total sample of 1542 adults, 18 and older. Survey respondents were interviewed in person in more than 300 scientifically selected localities across the nation. Interview- ing was conducted April 28-May I. Each Democrat was asked the follow- ing question: Which ONE of the people on this This is seen when Wallace supporters list would you like to see nominated in the current survey are asked to choose as the Democratic candidate for Pres- between the two current leading Dem- ident in 1972? ocratic choices - Humphrey and Mc- Govern. Here are the results of the latest nationwide survey. compared with the All Democrats who selected Wallace from the candidate list were asked this two previous surveys: question: Choices of Democrats Suppose the choice for President For 72 Nomination in the Democratic convention this April 28- April March year narrows down to Hubert Hum- May 1 21-24 24-27 phrey and George McGorern. Which % % % ONE would you prefer to have the Humphrey 35 30 31 Democratic convention select? McGovern 20 17 5 Wallace Here are the results: 18 19 17 Muskie II 17 22 Chisholm Wallace Supporters 3 5 4 Prefer McGovern Jackson 43% 3 4 5 McCarthy Prefer Humplirey 34 3 3 4 Mills Undecided 23 2 I I Others, no preference 100% 5 4 11 It may seem paradoxical that Wallace 100% 100% 100% supporters, who are largely conserva- tive in their views, lean somew hat more If Wallace to McGovern, the more liberal of the Does Not Run other two Democrats One explanation McGovern would stand to vain may be that the McGovern vote like the slightly more than Humpbrey if Wal- Wallace vote, 15, in part, a protest lace were to withdraw from the Demo- against "the way things are going in cratic race. this country." The Gallup Poll For Release: Thurs., May 18, 1972 Widens Lead Since October Agnew Now Clear Choice of GOP Voters for Vice Presidential Nod By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Agnew Clear Favorite of GOP PRINCETON, N. J., May 17 - Vice President Spiro Agnew has a clear lead Voters to Run Again with Nixon as the first choice of the nation's Re. publican voters to repeat as President Nixon's running mate in November. Agnew wins 43 per cent of the vote to 20 per cent for Calif. Gov. Ronald Reagan. runner-up in the latest Gallup measurement of Vice President- ial preferences. Republicans in this survey were asked to choose from 3 list of eight men who have been men- tioned as possibilities for the second spot on the ticket. In third place IS N. Y. Gov. Nelson Rockefeller (14 per cent). follow by Treasury Secretary John Connally, and Sen. Charles Percy, both receiving 8 per cent of the mentions. Vice President Agnew Governor Reagan Agnew Ups Lead Since October 43% 20% Agnew was also the first choice of GOP voters last October, but his margin over the rest of the field in that survey was not nearly so great as it is today. In the earlier survey, in which nine men were tested, Agnew was men- tioned by 27 per cent to 19 per cent for Reagan, with Percy at 13 per cent. Connally and Rockefeller each won IO per cent, and HUD Secretary George Romney received 8 per cent. Romney was not included on the most recent list. The standings in October, 1971, foi- This question was asked in both low for comparison: Among these non-affiliated voters, Agnew is the first choice of 26 per cent, surveys: Choice of GOP Voters but be is followed closely by Reagan Which of the men on this list (re- -- October. 1971 - (22 per cent). with Rockefeller and spondent was handed card listing names) would you like to see as the Spiro Agnew 27% Connally receiving 14 and 13 per cent. Ronald Reagan respectively. Republican candidate for Vice Presi- 19 dent in 19727 Charles Percy 13 Views of Voters John Connally TO In Southern States Here are the choices of the Republi- Nelson Rockefeller TO cans reached in the latest survey. In- George Romney Agnew's selection to run with Nixon 8 terviewing took place April 15.17. Paul McCloskey in 1968 was based, in part, on the hope 2 Others, no preference of winning over Southern voters, many II Choice of GOP of whom were leaning to Alabama's Voters for V-P Nomination 100% George Wallace, the thied party can- - Nationwide - didate. Since the possibility exists that Spiro Agnew 43% Agnew Also Top Choice Wallace will again make at third party Ronald Reagan 20 Of Independent Voters presidential bid, it is instructive to see Nelson Ro kefeller 11 In view of the minority status of the how Southerners of all political persua- drink .... various Visa John Connally 8 Republic an party III American polities Charles Percy 8 today, the GOP must count heavily on Presidential possibilities. Edmund Brooke } Independent voters to boost the ticket Agnew emerges with 34 per cent of Others DO preference 1 in national ele tion Thus, their Southern voter preferences. followed by views on the selection of Nivon's run- 21 per cent for Reagan and 17 per cent 100% ning mate are of prime importance. for Texas Democrat Connally. The Gallup Poll For Release: Monday, May, 15. 1972 Final Report in Series Economy Seen as Major Campaign Issue Democratic County Chiefs Favor National Primary Election Plan By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. PRINCETON. N. J., May 14 --- The idea of selecting party presidential can- didates in a nationwide primary elec- tion rather than by the present system wins the backing of a slim majority of the nation's Democratic county chair- men. The plan wins the support of 52 per cent of these Democratic party pro- fessionals; to per cent express opposi- Strongest Campaign tion and the remaining 8 per cent have Argument for Democrats? no opinion. "Pros' See Economy I. "The economy" 49% Senators Mike Mansfield and George As No. Issue 2. Vietnam 28 Aiken recently proposed the election- Prior to Nixon's recent announce- reform plan which would replace the 3. Unsatisfactory national ment to seal off North Vietnam from many state primary races with a single leadership 27 its major supply sources. the nation's national primary election. 22 "economic dilemma" - inflation. un- 4. Inflation, high prices Such a concept has had the bi-parti- employment. high taxes -- was viewed 5. Unemployment 17 san backing of the American public by the overwhelming majority of Dem- 6. High taxes, need for tax for twenty years. In fact, a survey in ocratic county chairmen as their party's reform 7 March of this year found 72 per cent strongest issue in the upcoming presi- All others 8 of the nation's adults over 18 backing dential campaign. No opinion 5 such a proposal. A New York State county chairman, The fact that Democratic party lead- one of the 1522 who returned mail 163%* ers support the plan is highly signifi- ballots in this special national survey. Total adds to more than 100 per cent cant. particularly since a nationwide summed up the thinking of many of because of multiple responses. primary could result in the party pro- the local party leaders who viewed the fessionals losing some of their political economy as the number one issue, with power. These chairmen. it should be this comment: A Summary of noted. have traditionally plaved a maior "The people realize that our economy role in the selection of delegates to This Special Survey is in trouble - prices have skyrocketed. the national party conventions. If the people are not working and taxes have A summary of this four-part series National Primary plan were adopted, become unbearable Nixon, himself, follows: the voters would select the nominee di- rectly, leaving the role of the conven- knows the potential impact of this is- 1. First choice of 'Pros' for nomina- tions to selecting the Vice Presidential sue. Why, he even took on a Demo- tion - Sen. Hubert Humphrey crat. Connally. to bail him out of the candidate and drafting the party plat- mess." 2. Preference if Convention Nar- form. rows to just Humphrey and Here is the question asked. both of Some aspect of the economic issue McGovern was cited by 7 out of every TO chair- the county chairmen and the general Humphrey 48%, McGovern 19% public: men (71 per cent). with many naming more than one economic problem. A 3. Kennedy as Compromise Candi- It has been suggested that Presi- total of 28 per cent of the chairmen date dential candidates be chosen by the pointed to the Victnam war as the Favor, 52% oppose, 40%; voters in a nationwide primary elec- most powerful campaign issue and 27 no opinion, 8': tion. instead of by political party com- pci cent said unsatistactory national rentions as at present. Would you 4. Who Will Actually Receive Nom- leadership on the part of Nixon and Instion? facor or appose this? the Republicans Sen. Hubert Humphrey Views of Following: IS the question asked and County General the full listing of responses: 5. Outlook for Democratic Victory in November A majority Chairmen Public A. you appraise the political situa- (59 :) foresee difficulty of -3 1104. it 11 the drouged argament Favor 52 the Democrate can are agains the 6. Major Campaign Issue for the 72 Oppose 40 18 publicans III the coming president. Democrats The Economy No opinion S 10 tal comparent The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, May 14, 1972 Part 3 in Series MM County Chairmen See HHH as the Nominee, But 'Pros' Pessimistic About Beating Nixon By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Chairmen Divided on Gov. Wallace's Plans PRINCETON, N I May 13 A PRINCETON N. J.. May 00 of the nation's Democratic The nation's Deplecratic county environ believe Sen. Hubert chair nen are Pront eventy dead H my will capture their party's ed on the question of where " in the July convention, but Gov. George Callace will run ." local professionals are crow- a thir party ticket this year, it be tent trut the NOD ince fails 0 get the Democrate " be will cap- nation. to ich in November At the same time, the county chair- nedy and McGovern - trail the Presi- As last week hrey is men -- whose own preferences have dent in these triai heat pairings. Hurts and of these local party traditionally mirrored the eventual out- phrey. the current front-runner to re- les notionation In addi- come of party conventions ----- currently ceive the Democratic nomination (both a majoricy (5.1 per cent) think predict rough stedding for their nom. among rank-and his Democrats and the Gally receive the nomination ince against Nixon in November, parti- party professionals), runs II points be- Sincen per cent of the "pros" rularly when compared to their pre- Predictions for hind the President (46 to 35 per cent, forcuse Pleased Musice emerging dictions of a year ago. About 6 in 10 November Election with 15 per cent for Wallace and 4 Learne. and :3 per CODE (59 per cent) either give their nominee per cent undecided). How confident sife you that at Dem- *(n. Idward Kennedy will a 50.50 chance" or say "it will be ocratic candidate will beat Nixon? to mated Sen. George Mc. difficult." Another 37 per cent believe 1522 Chairmen Govern is named by k per cent as the the race will be "close, but we will win." Returned Ballots Latest June, 1971 1.4elv winner. Only 2 per cent envision Only 3 per cent hazard the guess that Following are the questions asked of in = GON George Wallace as the nominee. the final vote count across the nation the 1522 Democratic county chairmen A landslide 3 12 will show a "landslide" for their ticket. Seen Winning who returned the mail ballot, and the Close, but we will win Nomination results. Balloting began one week 37 52 Dramatic Shift in Views after the Wisconsin primary. 50-50 chance 17 20 Gm. George Wallace Noted Since a Year Ago Will be difficult 42 IS A year ago, in June, 1971, a majority Who Will Win? Undecided I I Forty four per cent think be of the "pros" (57 per cent) predicted again head a third party 11 ct. Regardless of which one of these that Muskie would be the nomince. men you prefer. which ONE do you 100 100% while 42 per cent thank he will And, 64 per cent predicted a close win think WILL WIN the nomination not. Regional differences are only or a landslide in the general election. for President in 1972? Coming Monday! slight with Midwestern COURS leade S slightly more inclined " It should be noted that at the time Latest June, 1971 think allace will run JY inc and of last year's survey, Gallup Poll "test % % -LAST REPORT IN THIS SERIES- in 1068 than the "pros" in the election' contests matching the Hubert Humphrey 54 19 How do the nation's Democratic East. South or Midwest. Maine Senator against the President Edmund Muskie 16 57 Chairmen react to the National It will be remembered that III showed the general public giving Mus- Edward Kennedy 13 12 Primary Election Proposal? 1068. allace the candidate of kie a slight edge. And, Humphrey and George McGovern 8 I Kennedy were running virtually even What do the Chairmen see as the American pendent Party, George Wallace 2 against Nixon. In a recent survey, how. Others, no pref. 7 II their party's strongest issue this captured 13.6 per cent of the na ever, all of the chief Democratic con- year? tional popular vote. Senator Humphrey tenders - Humplirey, Muskie, Ken- 100% 100% The Gallup Poll For Release: Monday, May 8. 1972 Part 2 Party 'Pros' Favor HHH Over McGovern by Wide Margin By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Views of Democratic County Chairmen Field Enterprises, Inc. On a Humphrey-MeGovern "Showdown" PRINCETON, N. J.. May 7 If the choice of the Democratic convention in Miami narrows down to Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern. local leaders of the Democratic party say they would prefer Humphrey over McGovern by 2 ratio of more than two-to-one. With the exit from the primaries of both Edmund Muskie and Henry Jack- son, such a confrontation is a growing possibility particularly in view of the fact that McGovern is revealing in- creasing strength with Democratic vot. ers at the grass-roots level. Senator Humphrey Senator McGovern The 1552 county chairmen who took 48% 19% part in this survey represent the traditional arm of the party which may Undecided 33% explain their preference for Humplirey in the present poll. The influence of this group on con- vention choices can be judged from the fact that in both Republican and Dem- ocratic conventions their views general- ly prevail. In fact. not since 1952 have their choices for the nomination failed to win the convention vote. To simulate 2 two-man convention While a bare majority of local party struggle between Humphrey and Mc- who favor Muskie for the nomination, leaders favor the selection of Kennedy, Govern, the Gallup Poll asked this his supporters go to Humphrey over the opposition of a sizable number of question of the county chairmen. Bal- McGovern by a ratio of 3-to-r, as shown county chairmen could spell trouble for loting began a week after the Wiscon- the candidate. As one anti-Kennedv sin primary. in the following table: chairman in the survey put it: "If Suppose the choice for the Presi- Muskie's Followers Go to: Kennedy's the candidate, we'll simply dential nomination narrows down to Humphrey 46% ignore the top of the ticket and push Humplyey and McGovern. which McGovern only for our local candidates." 17 man would you prefer to hare the Undecided 37 Here is the question asked. and the Democratic convention select? national and sectional vote: Jackson's supporters move to Hum- The results follow. nationally and by phrey rather than McGovern by nearly If the convention becomes dead. section of the country: 10-to-1, as shown below: locked. would you favor or oppose the selection of Edward Kennedy as Views of Democratic Jackson's Followers Go to: the Democratic nominee? County Chairmen Humphrey 59% - National McGovern 6 -National Undecided 35 Favor Humphrey 48% 52% McGovern Oppose 40 19 Chairmen Divided Undecided No opinion 8 33 Regarding Kennedy East Midwest South West East Midwest South West Given the current situation in the % % in % % % race for the Democratic nomination, % % Humphrey Favor 51 45 5I 59 64 political observers are speculating that 38 50 44 McGovern Oppose 30 28 24 13 55 41 13 31 Sen. Edward Kennedy may emerge as Undecided 30 51 36 25 a compromise candidate, should the No opinion II 8 7 9 convention become deadlocked. How Do Muskie, Jackson Coming Sunday! Followers Lean? When asked how they might react With Muskie and Jackson bow mg to a Kennedy draft, the Democratic How Do Democratic County Chair- out of upcoming state primaries, the county chairmen voted this way: 52 per question arises as to bow their follow- cent 111 favor, 10 per cent opposed. and men size up the chances of defeat- crs divide between just Humphrey and 8 per cent no pinion. In the South. ing Nixon in the November Presi- McGovern la NA --- of the "pas" a majority (ss persent) react negative- dential Election? ly to Kennedy, NOTE TO EDITORS: The next report in the current series is for release Monday, May 8, and will replace the report regularly scheduled for Thursday, May 11. The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, May 7, 1972 1972 Convention Preview -- HHH Replaces Muskie as 'Pros' Top Choice Choices of Democratic County Chairmen 1. 2. 3. By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Interprises, Inc. Midwest Humphrey 34% Muskie 22 PRINCETON N J May 6 Sen ocratic county chairmen, conducted last McGovern 18 H.1 ert Humplines emerges IS the top May and June, which showed Muskie Kennedy 16 no 111.4' of at this time of the holding better than a 2-to-1 lead over Jackson 6 nat 41 % Democrate County Chairmen Humphrey, his closest rival: All others 4 W. 199. 27 PL cent of their vote to , cc cent for Sen Idmand Muskie. First Choice of South Democratic County Chairmen Humplitey 22% 11.2 latest servey. Humphrey and - Nationwide - Jackson 21 M. be are followed 111 the balloting Spring, 1971 Wallace 20 by Sen Henry la kson. who receives Sen. Hubert Humphrey Sen. Edmund Muskie Sen. Henry Jackson Actual Per Muskie 13 14 er cent Sep I Iward Kernedy with Vote Cent Mills 9 1, per with S.0 George McGovern 415 Votes 309 Votes 223 Votes Edmund Muskie All others with 11 per nt and Gov. George 532 37% 15 allace with per cent Hubert Humphrey 209 15 West Edward Kennedy 165 II Muskie 22% Alr nigle NeGovern ranks fifth Henry Jackson 126 9 Humphrey 21 d'ung the County Chairmen, his pop- Wilbur Mills 109 8 McGovern 21 with the party rank-a d-file has George McGovern 80 6 Details of Jackson Sharph 1: recent weeks This, Following are the results: 19 Birch Bayh 72 5 Kennedy 9 us kl with H imphrey's strength Survey First Choice of Harold Hughes 48 3 All others 8 the pros. could k ad to one Indicative of the great interest in Democratic County Chairmen John Lindsay 20 I of the hottest convention fights in the the coming presidential election is the - Nationwide Others 63 5 last two decades high proportion of local leaders who participated in the present survey. With- Spring, 1972 Coming Monday! In conventions of recent years the in a period of about two weeks, over Actual Per 1424 100% of the art. pros" have pre- half of the nation's county chairmen Vote Cent 27% Sectional Support SECOND IN SERIES ------------------------- If the valid the each major party. excepting have cast their ballots The results re- Hubert Humphrey 415 only the GOP invention of 1952. In ported today are based on 1552 ques- Edmund Muskie Varies Markedly Convention Choice Comes Down jo9 20 that year the rank and file of the party tionnaires received to date Balloting Henry Jackson 223 14 Support for the Democratic presi- to Humphrey and McGovern, preferred Dwight Fisenhower; the began a week after the Wisconsin pri- Edward Kennedy 195 13 dential hopefuls among the local "pros" Which Would the Party unity favored Sen. Robert mary and completed questionnaries are George McGovern 169 II varies markedly by section of the coun- Tar This Was the last time the "pros" still coming in at this writing. George Wallace 139 9 try, as shown in the following tables: 'Pros' Prefer? lost Wilbur Mills Would the local leaders favor the selection 66 4 East This question was asked: Shirley Chisholm of Sen Edward Kennedy, if the convention were march, bu lots received after 17 I Muskie Others, no preference 1 33% deadlocked? Service Muslie based out of the pri- As of today. abub ONE of these 19 Humplirey 28 Pidi 0 but kept available as a people (10 leading presidential possi- Kennedy 18 Be sure to read tomorrow's Gallup Poll Re- candidate are significanth different bilities Intel) do you personally 1552 100%, Jackson port in the 12 here there tale di before his state- prefer di the Democratic candidate For companson purposes, here are Metween 6 (NAME OF PAPER) 104 In III PINT the results of the earlier sarvey of Dem- All others 3 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Political Perindox Thursday, May 4, 1972 Americans See Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So They Admire Him Greatly, Do Not Want IIim to Run; As No. 2, He'd Hurt Ticket And Many Fear for His Life Admiration for the Man The Gallup survey was conducted the week- end of April 11 to 16. (Details of the polling A WALL STELET JOURNAL Nows Roundup technique are given in the box on page 21.) Hedye Brown. a saleswoman at the Sex and The following week, Wall Street Journal rè- S:n Routique in Detroit, has the political scene porters across the nation interviewed hundreds all figured out. "It is destiny" that Edward of Americans to supplement the statistical Kennedy will someday be President, she says. data. The quotes in this article come from "The people went him." those interviews; the statistics come from tith Miss Brown 13 prop ibly only half right, how- Gallup survey. ever. It may well be destiny that the Massa- One conclusion from the survey and the in- chusetts Senator will someday be President. terviews is that Americans admire Scn. Ken- But, right now at least, the people don't want nedy the politician and Edward Kennedy the him. man--even though they aren't likely to vote or Those are two key findings of 2 survey con- him. Three years ago. a car driven by the S.D. ducted for The Wall Street Journal by the Gal- ator went off is bridge at Chappaquiddick is- land after a party, and 2. female companion it This is the first of tico stories OR Scit. his was drowned. The Senator did not rep? t Edward Kennely. The second risal the accident to potice until nearly 10 hours with his ours view of his situation this later. and at tite time it was widely assumed political year. that his changes of ever becoming a national leader had been instantly wiped out. lap Organization. The survey sought to deter- But now. 1012 of the people surveyed believ e nine Americans' attitudes about Scn. Ken- that Sen. Kennedy conducted himself as well as nody, his abilities and his life style. The find- he could under the circumstances 13816 say tie ings are interesting. usi, If announced Demo- didn't), and half the people won't even venture CC Nc presidential contenters a guess on whether the Senator was drunk at each other cut, could 23 import int 03 well. In- the time. (Of the other half, though. the feeling dead, there is increasing talk that, want it or runs three-to-two that he was drunk.) not. Son. Kennody will get the Democratic At any rate, there's no widespread feeling sidential nomination at Mami Bench in that he's too much of a playboy to be Previ- July. (Tuesday's prim. certurnly didn't dent-only 10' r of the people have that view. Clarify the Democratic "All men play around. but he was stupul The people believe when la enough to get eaught one time." says Ann he onl a survey Muchibaner. " Pittsburgh housewife who is 2113* funds, of the Last he stacks to tive in Democratic ponties. Judy Fisher, a 0.1- Demo- year-old San Francisco Democrat. agrees. "I don't think be has done anything worse tasn most. The circumstances were such that it Pan- pened to come out in his ease." ublican An- thony Olenick, a retired pressman in Fleming- the family, has a :, the Acterienn public, Lut I sure wouldn't do it when I was planting P:40 U.C corn." 110 of :-, and hargen :) anyone-at in. Still, the mijority of Antericans get to -154." make him 2 birth condidate, and he 1:13 think the Senator wouldn't be 2: coud R Prone a 20-1 ar-old hel- = Chance of being clected someday although dont as his brother John were. Only to 5.1m un the he han't any of the qualities neces any in a President Ted would be better than 1" 'en Hick Presuent," says Park Veryor Jr., a L., Anto- John. "I just can't compare enjone to S.A. (thout Mr. Ken- benker. E United III. ? Sin Kennedy. I just had such great faith in 111 Mr. Wells If nio nationality owner, thats Mr. Mennedy will aya Freda Henderson, a Docton switchbor his business. I Le cleated some day because of "the simple operator. unite." sense of J.- Lice" Americans feel toward the One reason Ted Kennedy would rinke R athetic about Mr. Kemedy funily. good President, many people say, is becau extremely conserned If :... -...ittor does someday become Pre-i- ne has been a good Senator. In the Gallup CITY the survey. = of dent. must Americans think Its will be effective vey, 6006 of the people said they believe Mr. believer San. Ken- in dealing with Russi and China, in Kennedy was doing a good job in the Benefe: mild for Pre. inflation and in instilling trust and cont donce only 12% thought otherwise. Among Deme- granter r= in himself and his office. Democrats, c.pc. crats, he scores in 18-to-1 proportions: he even two 0.100 bromers: claily, are confident of his ability. gets a three-to-one vote of contidence from Re- Twenty-nine per- The Gallup figures: 47% think he'd do publicans. and job C ling with Russia and China; Oddly, though. Americans don't want this would be out to Cunk not. Fifty-four percent think he'd offer- good Senator to become their Vice Presi a wor'ver a: the tively de 1 with inflation: 00% think not. any more than they want him to become Pheir division in Mar- JL'. thank he'd instill trust and confidence: 3F President. If the Senutor were the No. 2 man one.it, payment oth- think not. on the Democratic 11 ket this year. 20 : of the Franch to jr Sell Patricia Horsch of Chicago, a 26-ve: people would be more likely to vote for the "Thero's t: ble McGonern supporter. is one American ticket-but 25% would be less Mely. "A Ken- & away. The := of Chanks Mr. Nonnedy would be a good negotive redy candidacy would be on bilance 2 raive more to to n with Comminst countries. "He doesn't factor," according to the Gallup "I: soul the 11 someone basic four of communism." she says. "ID would produce a net gain only anong i The look : it 23 in alternative form of governm for other parts of the worl 1. rether then erats (who are likely to vote for the 11. postitui. ic then women enswered it threat." (But a Philip: hia man May) and among the under-05 0.0 groups twis are more Democratic than the older 100 a five-to-two ratio. proce. "He basn't had the experience, and DC inch. maly 03 Nixen.") group). for ".1 Born Lowder" was 23 one 10. con some Others cate Mr. Kennedy's probable ability Countor to TWI for to attract and advisers on foreign afters future. crs" that count, says Allen GNU- for not wanting smith of Sun Antenio. "And he em get more he wen't run. Disinnower to help run this country." we.te Imm in economic ireat. if Mr. Kennedy WATER good T. at new." "l.bor wouldn't walk off the t "No: it C.1.1 rd Jod burness could rest comfort: Hannedy a son in power," according Do How the Gallup Survey 50.20 ill J may, a Lowon luwyer and MeGove: Mrs. Mustillance et Pittsbur 2: For Story Was Conducted in MIC NOV :.. would "give Maen a Byc WALL DESOURNANT "rr In more prices down. He has the mi.... Th: Callup survey that 19 the :1 for rund." There ye the accompanying article on Sm. Ulv -1 trust onl confidence. "I 2 Kennody involved telephone interviews the American truit any with .1 ro., -seets of 5.5 Ancrease le minut n=t :.: says Sharen Leuen' przer, a 5 m A telephone UNIVEY foursing used 0.0 Ainthe C. 13 political ture. will as nt Kennaty. likely to produce a somewh more believes In L.m.: he's a Lorn able re-ponse than & personales CTV Dation of Hand- survey would. There are Some 10 C a NEW student in lawrart. are reluctant to be negative about 28 1., "Kennain valued white ..1 by An returns 1.01. which could viewer over the telephone. country." This effect 1; minimumed in 13 care, Sen for 1-: Powever. becau other the viewed this time : :* He her: ": :1 WELL ntly by a Gillin interve wer. 1 I the G...p r.d In !!! the a Within fill To 1:1 "miliy 29 1 nut THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Trying to Figure Out Friday, May 5, 1972 What Kennedy Is Up To "George Has to Win It Himself" Is All but Impossible "The whole reform movement was to let the people decide," he explains. "If anything emerges clearly from the primaries SO far, it's Everything He Says Can Be that endorsements don't mean anything. George has to win it himself-he has to estab- Interpreted on Two Levels: lish his own presence, his own views, his own positions if he's to be able to put the party to- Is It Innocence or Intrigue? gether and get his views clear for the election in November and serve effectively as Presi- dent. I think he's on the road to doing that." Wouldn't an endorsement of Sen. McGovern No Draft, No Endorsements help quiet suspicions that Mr. Kennedy is still seeking the nomination himself? Otherwise, By ALAN L. OTTEN one adviser argues, "It will look as though Ted Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL is crossing his fingers and hoping George will Patrick, not quite five, walks in and out im- fall on his face SO the convention will turn to him." patiently, prodding his father to finish talking and come swimming. But the Senator doubts that even endorsing another man would convince the skeptics. "If I Daddy obviously wants to go along, but he were campaigning for George in Harlem or politely answers a standard question. "I don't know how I can say it any more precisely than East Los Angeles and got a very warm recep- I've said it again and again," Sen. Edward M. tion, I can see them saying that I'm really Kennedy says as he rises from his chair in the doing it all for myself anyhow." den of his suburban Virginia home. "I am not a That, of course, is at, the heart of the prob- candidate. I don't expect a convention dead- lem of trying to decide just what Mr. Kennedy lock. I wouldn't accept a convention draft. I is up to. Everything he does or says can be can see no circumstances that would make me read on two very different levels: as innocently reconsider this." as he and his staff explain it, or more de- But many people simply won't believe it, no viously as part of a carefully conceived game matter how precisely or how often he says it. plan for stirring a draft-since Chappaquid- dick, the best and perhaps only way for him to win nomination and election. This is the second of two articles on A Busy Noncandidate Sen. Edward Kennedy. The first, which appeared yesterday, dealt with the pub- If he isn't running, why is he speaking so lic's attitudes toward the Massachusetts widely? Columnist Art Buchwald satirically de- Senator. scribes the Senator dashing frantically from state to state to assure the voters he isn't a Politicians and ordinary voters, they remain candidate. In the last few weeks, Mr. Kennedy has made a dozen major appearances: a hand- convinced that the Democratic convention will ful of union rallies and the Americans for Dem- deadlock, that Ted Kennedy will be the one ocratic Action banquet in Washington, a Wilbur man on whom party regulars and reformers Mills testimonial in Arkansas, the Auto Work- can then agree, that in an emotional outpour- ing the Miami delegates will nominate the ers convention in Atlantic City, a teachers brother of martyred President John and Sena- meeting in South Carolina, a medical students tor Robert, and that 40-year-old Ted Kennedy convention in California and party fund-raising will yield to the convention's call. functions in Indiana and California. Tonight he will address a party dinner in Many, in fact, believe Mr. Kennedy is play- Detroit and tomorrow one in Milwaukee. Be- ing his cards most skillfully and most purpose- fully to achieve precisely that end. tween now and convention-time, he'll testify before the party platform committee and fulfill But the Senator insists with every appear- important party engagements in Chicago, Co- ance of honesty that those dopesters are lumbus and perhaps one or two other cities. wrong. And he adds: The message he carries to all these meetings: -More than ever, he believes that the pri- the need to "build the kind of society that Pres- maries, particularly the big ones ahead in June ident Kennedy worked for and Robert Kennedy in California and New York, will produce the dreamed of.' nominee and that it now seems likely to be Sen. How, ask the cynics, could he signal his George McGovern of South Dakota. "It will be availability any more clearly? awfully difficult to deny the nomination to any- Kennedy aides argue that most of these ap- one who's successful in the major primaries." pearances were scheduled long ago, at a time -He certainly won't be part of any stop- he thought Sen. Edmund Muskie of Maine McGovern movement. Some party leaders may would have the nomination locked up by now. try to push Mr. Kennedy as a McGovern alter. Some speeches, they claim, aim to repay can- native, should Sen. Hubert Humphrey of Min- didates or party leaders who once aided his nesota collapse in coming primaries, but Mr. brothers, while others seek to drum up support Kennedy asserts, "I'm not going to be used as for his sweeping plan for national health insur- a foil against George or in any way hurt or de- ance. "I am speaking out," he says, "because I tract from him." am concerned about the problems and issues, -it is still "very unlikely" that he will en- and I will continue to be." dorse any candidate before the convention But why must he attack President Nixon as votes in July, though he admits that neutrality is more difficult as the active field narrows. But if he were going to endorse anyone, it would certainly be the South Dakotan. That Noncandidate: Its Hard To Figure Sen. Kennedy Out Continued From Page One on the ballot, he'd have won the Wisconsin pri- harshly as he does-doesn't that draw the bat- mary. tle lines for November? Of all the top-name A convention deadlock remains the essential Democratic liberals, he is probably the most element of any draft-Kennedy scenario-and outspoken in assailing the "failures" of the right now, with fallen candidates littering the Nixon administration, the bombing of North wayside, many politicians think a deadlock is Vietnam, the President's proposal to halt new less and less likely. Contends one Kennedy sup- school busing, the nomination of Richard Klein- porter: "The race is effectively down to two, dienst as Attorney General. George and Hubert. It's easier now to see "To me, the ITT case says it all," he told a someone wrapping it all up by the end of the Steelworkers Union health care conference in California and New York primaries than it was Washington last week. In a typical applause- when there were more candidates in the field." grabbing line, he added, "The doors of the Yet the primary results could be inconclu- White House are open wide to every chairman sive, and enough uncommitted votes may re- of the board, but they are closed tight to the main to tie up the convention. In that case, Ted American working man." Small wonder that Kennedy would be the leading compromise some people get the idea he's available. candidate. As did his brothers, he enlists enthu- Sure, the Senator says, he's trying to defeat siastic support among blacks, Chicanos, young Richard Nixon this year-but with some other people. His liberal stands-for immediate with- Democratic standard-bearer, not himself. And, drawal from Vietnam, for amnesty for draft aides add, if he were really trying to become a evaders, against the antiballistic missile, for compromise draft choice, wouldn't his proper tough gun controls-make him completely ac- strategy be to speak more softly, wooing the ceptable to liberal party ideologues; his latest party's center and right as well as its left? rating of The Americans for Democratic Ac- Rephrasing Gen. Sherman tion was 100%, topping Mr. McGovern's 96%, Well, why doesn't he use General Sherman's Mr. Humphrey's 89% and even Shirley Chis- famous words and declare he "will not accept holm's 97%. if nominated and will not serve if elected." The At the same time, though, top union officials critics charge that his failure to make this and such old-time party leaders as Chicago pledge merely keeps speculation stirring. Mayor Richard Daley see him as the candidate four years from now, might have to wait eight "I think I've used my own words to say the who can best help them hold on to the white, years for another turn. same thing," Mr. Kennedy declares. "I feel ethnic, blue-collar workers who have been slip- Fresh new faces may develop in the party most people understand I'm not a candidate, ping away to George Wallace or even Richard even if not all the writers and commentators Nixon. These voters respond to the Kennedy to challenge the inevitability of Ted Kenned: do. I don't know that using his words would mystique, or his Catholicism, or his strong ad- (Back in 1968, when draft-Teddy talk was buz convince many more people." (The Senator ex- vocacy of broader health care and other aid to ing around the Chicago convention, the Senator pressed some surprise at a Wall Street Journal workingmen's pocketbooks. was canvassing the situation with top advise: at Hyannisport, and most were urging him survey finding that 30% of the voters still don't The $64 Question wait. "I just want you guys to know," he sale believe him. The survey was taken by the Gal- All of which still leaves the $64 question: If then, "that I expect you to be around in 197 lup Organization in mid-April.) there is a deadlock and a draft, would he ac- when I call from Coos Bay, Oregon, and to Associates cite an even more important rea- cept? One advantage that cynics see in his you to get out there in a hurry because Ja son for his reluctance: He wants his liberal present stance is that he could wait until the Rockefeller is about to whip my ass in the Or point of view and his criticisms of the Presi- very last moment to decide, after the latest gon primary.") dent heard as widely as possible, and "he possible reading on the war, the economy and knows that once he slams that door shut tight, How About 1976? other factors affecting President Nixon's re- those TV cameras are going to stop following And there will be emotion-charged appea election chances. him around." to Mr. Kennedy's loyalties-that only he C3 The case against accepting a draft can be Of the continued wide interest in the Senator laid out fairly clearly. Delay might make good keep the party from splintering, or save 00 there can be little doubt. He's still the Demo- political sense, even apart from his firm gressional and state candidates from defeat, crats' biggest draw on the fund-raising circuit. beat Mr. Nixon, or carry on his brothers' wo: pledges not to run. Only 40 now, he'll still be In hotel lobbies and convention halls, people The Senator stoutly asserts he'll resist all the young enough to run four years hence, or eight, appeals and also any effort to make him " crowd around to see and touch and get an auto- or even 12 or 20; why not wait rather than tak- graph. Three new Kennedy biographies are on ing on an incumbent-even one who might vice presidential nominee-a rumor that kee, the bookstands. His appearance at the UAW seem vulnerable in July? Passage of time popping up, particularly from the Humphr convention last week touched off a sponta- would almost surely dim voters' memories of camp. neously warm demonstration that kept him the accident at Chappaquiddick, too, and might If not this year, might he be a candidate from starting his speech for almost five min- even case their fears that another Kennedy 1976? "I assume there'll be a Democratic utes. candidacy would mean another Kennedy assas- cumbent then," he evasively replies. And wh The Scenario sination. about after 1976? After all, The Wall Street But there are substantial arguments against Journal survey showed that half the count Despite Chappaquiddick and his protesta- delay, too. Time could unravel the network of believed he'd be President some day. tions of non-availability, he still rates high in the polls; the Journal's survey showed that academicians and political pros who now stand "I've learned," he says, "that you don while 48% of the people oppose his election, ready to rally round. If someone else becomes plan too long in the future-certainly not in I: 43% would seriously consider voting for him. A the Democratic nominee, he might win-and family." And the Senator reaches for Patrick Time magazine survey found that if he'd been then Mr. Kennedy, who might prefer to run hand and goes off to change into swim trunks The Gallup Poll For Release: Thursday, May 4, 1972 Makes Dramatic Gain Since Wisconsin McGovern Moves Into Virtual Three-Way Tie for Second Place in Latest Standings By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. Top Nomination Choices of Democratic Voters - Nationwide PRINCETON N J., May Fol- love Lis impressive tory in the COUP 1:- ary. Sen George Mc- Grem bas registered a dramatic 12- Faith 111 (opularity with the na- Docume voters In the latest 77 McGovern is in a virtual three- ne for second place. winning the of 17 per cent of Denincrats for the aomination. compare to 19 per for GA George Wallace and 17 for NO Edmind Muslae form Hobert If emphrey continues to frontra winning per cent vote if Democrars in the latest Hubert Humphrey George Wallace George McGovern Edmund Muskie Yorty I PRE-WISCONSIN No preference 9ª 6 M.Govern's performance in Wis- 31% 17% 5% 22% and t'e resulting media COV- POST-WISCONSIN 100% 100% have apparently given him lentity which he previously lacked 30% 19% 17% 17% Less the " one had of nne per name Democratic VOICES Until / No longer at and late (13', survey. McGovern's DOVE created 7 per cont in 14 Muskic Vote Divides Equally tent. of D. locratic presidential possi- Latest Standings Between Humplires. McGovern coverning d period of two and Support for the other candidates on Massachusetts and Pennsylvania primar- March 31. Muskie's decision to stay out of the air years ies. the list, including Humphrey and Wal- April 21-24 April 3 primary contests has led political ob- lace, has shown little change between Fach Democrat was asked the follow. Humphrey 30% Mushie's Vote 31% 3 servers to speculate as to which cardi- surveys. ing questions: Wallace 19 17 date would stand to gain most if Muskie Off Slightly McGovern 17 5 loses substantial ground with the na- if they recent decision to foreço The latest results are based on inter- Which ONE of the people on this Muskie tion's Democratic voters. 17 22 a the parti parton in the remaining views with Democrats in a total sample list would you like to see nominated Lindsay of 1556 adults, 18 and older. Survey as the Democratic candidate for Pres- / 5 A special analysis of the second ary contexts which at a time when Chisholm ident in 1972? And who is your 5 4 choices of Muskie supporters shows the tunes ebbed with Democratic respondents were interviewed in person Jackson second choice? 4 5 vote going about equally to Humplirey attonwide from 22 per cent in more than 300 scientifically selected McCarthy 3 4 and McG vern with each man picking in the previous (late-March. early- localities across the nation. Interview- Here are the results of the latest Mills I up about 1 third of the Muskie vote. April) survey to 17 per cent in the ing was conducted April 21-24 after nationwide survey, compared with the Hartke The remaining third is divided among late survey, conducted in late April. the Wisconsin primary and before the earlier survey: the other candidates on the list. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Thursday, May 4, 1972 arreams Till Kennedy As President Someday But Hope It Isn't So They Admire Him Greatly, Do Not Want Ifim to Run; As No. 2, He'd Hurt Ticket And Many Fear for His Life Admiration for the Man The Gallup survey was conducted the week- end of April 14 to 16. (Details of the polling JOURNAL Resedup technique are given in the box on page 21.) T1 12 Brown. a sale women at the Sex and The following week, Wall Street Journal rè- ue in Detroit. has D.e political scene porters across the nation interviewed hundreds 111 mea out. "It is de-tiny" that Edward of Americans to supplement the statistical vill someday be President, she says. data. The quotes in this article come fro... 22/0 went him." those interviews; the statistics come from the is prontly only half right. how- Gallup survey. well be destiny that the Massa- One conclusion from the survey and the in- senator will someday be President. terviews is that Americans admire Sen. Ken- right now at least, the people don't want nedy the politics n and Edward Kennedy The Mr. min-even though they aren't likely to vote For Th are two key indires of a survey con- him. Three year. G20. a car driven by the = ducted for The Wall Street Journal by the Gal. ator went off a bridge at Chappaquiddick :- lard after & may, and a female companies : This is the first " tire stories OIL Scn. his was drowned. The Senator and not rc; Tt the colont in nature unit no. 10 hours is 0.5% VICIO of his submittion this later. and di the time IL was Widely assemed the Pts entitles of ever becoming a national leader lind been in-1 antly wiped out. Iup OL mention. The under sought to deter- But now. 15'' " the surviyed believe nune Maericans' effitudes about Scn. Ken- that Sen. Kennedy conducted hintself as well at nedy, his abilities and his life stvie. The find- he could under the circum-tances ruse say no into 1. if announced Delhio- didn'te, and half De people won't even venture CT keep knowing a guess on whether the Sen tor was drunk at could 1/ important as well. In- the time. (Or the other half. thom: the feeling Card deed. te i. inerea 1K that, want It or runs three-to-two that he was drun.) n.s. Keanuay 12 gri the Democratic At any r 10, there's no wide.-; read feeling nomination at Mami Beach in that he's 100 much of a layboy to be Piecl- July, Jul diy's TIM. didn't dent-only 10% of the people have that View. claims Democratic "All men play around. but he was stupid ** believe when lin mosgh to get enught one time." says Ann it carlots survey Muchib a Pit. burgh housewife who is ac- of 1.10 such to ave in Democratic polities. Judy Fisher, a 33- wor-old Sin Francisco Democral, agrees. "I will trunk no has done anything worse th 11 ay most. The circum: tances were such that it has- hun; pene I to come out in his case." Republican An- Whit's thony Olenick, a retired pressman in Fleming- more. rule the more now. destined thank Feelings but I sure wouldn't do it when I was planting From 0 and N.J., in to IF of ' Shill. CA mijority of American- 1103 a of topic get loaded." 1.19 ? 1. Typ 1. AT be has a think the Senator wouldn't be as good a Prom. Jean William Wells. a 25-ye T-1 d nue of being clocked omeday although dent as his brother John 0.00L in Date d. seems to CUAL 1," Le any of the my TH135 neces ary in a Prevident Ted would be better than 1' of 1.10st Amoricans. Chap : TUINTON President." Stys Park Weaver Jr., a Los Ange- John. "I just can't compare anyone 10 location't affect my 0 ...0'1 27m. les more unher. Ed Syll III. a Anto. Kennedy. I just had such great fath In one (** or AT der" Nr. W.P. If nio lery owner, thinks Ir. II and will AND Freda Henderson, a Corton switched Senator was drunk, "that's his buciness. 1 be elect J some day becau e of "the cimple operator. my-elf once in 2 while." Len. 3 of Justice" Americans feel toward the One reason Ted Kennedy would male a If Americans are rympa actic about Mr. Kembey family. good President, many people say, is becau. 1 consuv's past, they are extremely If 1.20 DI nuor does someday become Presl- he has been a good Scnator. In the Gallun num- h.s future. 1.. the Gillup surren. is : Jei.t. nic Americans think he will be effective vey, 63% of the people said they believed Mr. respondents said they beneved Sen. Ken- III al.ng with Russia and China, in combating Kennedy was doing a good job in the Senate: a: President or as a cansidate for Pre.:- and in instilling tru t and confidence only 12% thought otherwise. Among D.mo- would really run a much greator net: of in himself and his office. Democrats, espe- crats, he scores in 18-to-1 proportions: he even lated-as his two offer bro cally, entident of his ability. gots a three-to-one vote of confidence from 1.0- tre-than other men would. Twenty-nine per-¹ The C Eup figures: 4712 think he'd do 6 publicans. thought not. 310 dealing WILL Ru LIL and China: 311 Oddly, though. Americans don't want this "Every nut in the country would be out 15 Chick not. Fifty-four percent think he'd offec good Senator to become their Vice Pres: bim," says Junes Diehl. a worker at the Lively deal with intlation: 00% think not. And any more than they want him to become their Metors Code parts division in : 52', think he'd instill trust and confidence: 31 President. If the Senator were the No. 2 10 " isburg, W.Va. Les Antonelli. assestant 5-1 thank no.. on the Democratic ticket this year, 2001 of the rector at the San rencis. Jews 11 P tricia Horseh of Chief 20, a 26-year-031 people would be more likely to vote for 11a a ommuny Center, and, t: visit orn supporter, i; one Americ an ticket-but 250 would be less likel*. "A Ken- that's never surg to 80 way. The In Minks Mr. Kennedy would be a good necotive nedy candidney would be on balance a new tive the I::'d providely be more at: to L: a with Communist countries. "II" doesn't have (netor," according to the Gallup analysis. "It for me dortented soul th. n somethe 40 fear of communication" she says. "H: would produce a net gain only among Lease would." boket at en altern live form of govern crats (who are likely to vote for the n°1 Women are even more pessimitic the on part; of the world. return then show it C... threat." (But a Phil- Colpula man 1. ways and among the under-35 220 group 1373 in the Gaing survey, women an-wered are more Democratic than the older non to the question in a five-to-two ratio, agreen. "Ile Lett'L had the experience, and for Numn.") group). MIA. T..c concern overp wible substitution W.S "1 Born Leader" to Journal reporters as one rea. on ome O: "I's cite Mr. Konnedy's probable ability hericans don't VALI the Sct ator to run for :- at: ret And advisors on foreirn af. resident this year the future. Dr. a the at: crs" that count, says Allen Golu- of other rea ers are cited for not wanting mith of San Antonio. "And he can get more to run or for ne won't run. braing ower to help run this country." "The Democrate Amaint waste him in 0. the economic Bront, if Mr. Kennedy Was and his chings aren't rood right now. "Ither wouldn't walk off the P..... u ct krey of Chica :0. "Nebsdy or 11 In-iness could rest CO) fort. Nexon. Bestues, 1 think Kennedy son in power." according to How the Gallup Survey the generating of the fatuly MTT Julies, a Borten Letter and MeGovern to of M 1.1 3 Mrs. Michilbauer of Pit. For Story Was Conducted to him." Intry would A: r.cuns & and By WALL STREET 81 purcer family wis prices down. H it. bride. The Gallup survey Unit is the D. for Aven 203 E c .1 mind." the accompanying article on sen. Edward JOWs children. They red trust and confuien C. "I Kennedy involved telephone interviews 5 the American 0 DTV with a cro. section of 523 113. 1..1 no v, to mirst not Presid 50ys Sharen Leuenberger, a San A telephone survey focusing upon one M. to BY meet Americans polities) figure, such 1.3 the stude d' 17 One. THE riter. a Trye 3'ml President L. 1..1 Leemedy. linely to produce a somewhat more (yor- in urance tenny and n Meker believes in him: he's a born able re-ponse than a per-onal-interview lare. Ju-miune Dut 1111 of Hamil- 10, 1.5 survey would. There are some people who 1: actually 1 Gever struberry 07 his part E :! Check L'ani, a law statent in flanks "Kennedy :-. the charle are reluctant to be negative about an in-ll- vidual when by an UN, an Enter- 11. Douthers h.d. which could Date: ... elves o the race. the country." viewer over the telephone. Wish Father 10 Be Horried? exampled the the Senstor is This effect is minimized in 11:13 care, to 1. Pm name owerer. be III e either the person Lice- viewed Lus time or name in his here in a of hon. in 11 WILL recently interview r- that who what be 11 by Gallup erver T. the "All your are Leen very veri- Galip terviewers 1...3 altrog de Lawn't date vary reetly or Cy C I:- 1. To in the in there 15 are of the or J on any C. in en the mater." 1.1., when the answers fall sween world invov were 1:1 Int. Slevey do. like to not GRANK on Sintay might, SACTS or near 8% The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, April 23. 1972 6 in 10 Women Afraid to Go Out Alone at Night Growing Fear of Crime Could Become Number One Issue in Nov. Election the percentage of citizens living in smaller cities (pop. 2,500-50,000) who % of Women Afraid To Go By George Gallup He has to be an afferney to Copyright, 1972, express fear has shot up 19 percentage Outside Home at Night Second Biggest one to court and when be and the points to 41 per cent. This is not Domestic Issue Field Enterprises, Inc. % % suspect 15 usually at fice anyway far behind the figure of 49 per cent for A recent Gallup audit of the public's people living in the nation's largest worries shows crime and lawlessness This is what a HYGT of La ife (including drug abuse) to be the pub- from Beaverton, Or Jon cities. PRINCITON, % J April 60 60 22 lic's greatest concern an the domestic "People TO toods Lave charged drastically Survey Covered front, second only to the economic situ- kids Children run or parents and neig borbood in recent 300 Localities 55 55 ation. insist on dom: t of 'thine I Tre N J civil service good hard work rever but anyb " A total of 1478 persons, 18 and Despite the widespread concern over interviewed in the latest older, were interviewed in person in 50 50 crime in all regions and in all levels Reflection the of Five years apo I the latest survey which covered more of society no presidential candidate survey. an elderly have thought twice about than 300 scientifically-selected locali- 45 45 in primary races has yet come up with ed think the b. of ful~ and at: to the prot- ties across the nation. Interviewing a program for dealing with crime by crime IS Irons it. in the evening. But flow. was conducted March 24-27. This ques- 40 40 which to attract voters do anything to get money to p.n. taking or chances We've tion was asked: them." least siv musgines in our area last year or 50 1, there any area right around Became n Top The How atte su here that is, within a mile Worry in '60's response of all persons interview housewife. like many here you would be afraid to walk 1968 1972 Worry over crime and lawlessness Public's Reasons for become ocreasingly fearful alone at night? In 1968, 44 per cent of women said came into prominence in early 1965, High Crime Rate and 'ers: "A year or walked nov deg every night The following table shows the latest they were afraid to walk alone at night and by the time of the 1968 president- ial election had become the number one Laws are too lemitht/penalties with all the trouble around results compared with those recorded in their neighborhoods. Today the figure not su enough domestic concern of voters. ht 1 hit over the head four years ago, in February, 1968: is 58 per cent. Drug different Crime (including looting and riots) Lack of expersision by parents 13 Tie portion of women who say Afraid to Walk Alone at Night ing that one person in three (35 per was the number one domestic issue at Not enot gh jobs/joverts 13 afraid to out alone at night Point cent) believes there is more crime in the time of the 1968 presidential elec- Too 010k permiss 055 tood seds has crown from 1968 1972 Change their communities than there was a tion. in sex cty 10 High 11 per cent four years % % year ago. Four in ten (42 per cent) Lack of proper lay enforcement 8 early SIX in ten (58 per cent) say "about the same" while only eleven What's Behind the NATIONAL 31 41 +10 I.1 feelings between FT sups/races 7 wide survey just completed. per cent say "less." High Crime Rate? Lack of responsib bes among is as high as three in four Men In 20 + 4 What's behind the high crime rate younger people/ lisr spect both white and black women Women 44 58 +14 Could Be Key Issue in the United States? for las 6 = years old or older. Community Size: In November Election When the sample of citizens inter- People bac too Fear is crown amount men. as well 500,000 & over 40 49 9 Crime could become a key issue in viewed 111 the latest survey was asked money fluxury 4 lesser extent. Four years ago 50.000-500,000 38 49 +11 the presidential election this fall. parti- this question, here's what they had to All other responses was 16 per cent: today it is 2,500-50,000 22 41 +19 cularly among women. It is rapidly No opin-on to say: 20 cent Under 2,500 21 24 3 becoming a "close-to-home" issue for many Americans and could gain in "Hands of Police Total: 14 No Longer Just Only One in Nine Says prominence if economic conditions con- Are Tied' Include back of chain Big City Problem 'Less Crime' in Area tinue to improve and the Vietnam wat A 60-year old real estate salesman DRUGH glamorice and lawlessness have tradi- Consistent with the growing fear of has been defused as a key issue by No- from the state of Washington: Total rids to "an tionally been "big city' problems, yet crime in one's neighborhood, is the find- vember. "The hands of the policeman are tied. since State person. " may reason. ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL April 19, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Surveys Discussion with John Davies of Gallup Surveys today disclosed several matters of interest: 1. The Gallup Release for Sunday, April 23, 1972 will focus on the increased fear of crime by Americans. One of the lead lines, if not the headline, will be that "6 in 10 women are afraid to walk in their own neighbor- hoods in the evening." This concern by 58% of the women compares with 41% five years ago. The public blames too lenient laws, drugs, and permissiveness by parents and society. Crime is now a critical domestic problem equal to the economic issue in John Davies' mind. lie believes it will hurt candidates with a soft position on crime or drugs; 2. Gallup's April Survey will be in the field this weekend, probably April 21-23. In addition to Presidential popularity, trial heats, and the standing of the Democratic contenders, Gallup will ask several questions on the Indo- china situation. The questions will not be the same as ones Gallup has asked before according to Davies. Rather, there will be questions on reaction to a Senate vote to cut off funds for the was provided the POWs are released. The question on the bombing will be something like "Do you favor or oppose the stepped up bombing of Indochina in recent days?" There will be no questions on the N.V.N. invasion. Davies would not indicate any release date to me. - 2 - In light of this information you should consider two steps. First, ORC could poll April 21-23 on pending matters and offer a comparison with Gallup. The last ORC poll occurred on March 18-19. Proceed with development of questionnaire. (Areas to be tested include drugs, ITT, Vietnam and Ehrlichman's busing questions which have not been received.) Forget ORC poll for now. Other. The second step might be to ask Counsellor Rumsfeld to call George Gallup, Jr. If Rumsfeld has called him in the last two months, neither Colson nor I are privvy to the conversation. You would probably have to ask Rumsfeld personally to talk to George Gallup about the Indochina questions. GS/jb The Gallup Poll For Release: Sunday, April 16, 1972 Poll Analyzes Strength of Three Leading Democratic Possibilities By George Gallup Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. PRINCITON N.J., April 15 - When to delerates to the Democratic con- version meet in Miami Beach in July the presidential nominee, they Suppose the choice for President Fase - basic considerations in in the Democratic convention this and (1) Which candidate commands with the public, as determined by an year narrows down to Edmund e createst strength within the party attitude scale designed to measure de- Muskie and Hubert Humpbrey. and (2) Which candidate an attract gree of enthusiasm for leading presi- Which ONE would you prefer to ed voters. 46 to 35 per cent. with 15 per e createst number of independent dential possibilities. have the Democratic convention re- Kennedy Winning cent for Wallace and four per cent Here are the strengths of the three lect? (The same question was asked 'Charisma' Battle rers and dissident Republicans? undecide 1. Nixon leads Muskie by In latest "showdown" test. which about Muskie rs. Edward Kennedy). Senator Kennedy is currently winning about the same margin. 16 to in per leading Democrats tested. based on the "charisma" battle, despite the fact cent. with 14 per cent for Wallace and restates the field of Democratic candi- "showdown" contests: The following tables show the na- that he trails Muskie in a two-way four per cent undecided. dates to the from the presently frag- - Humphrey's Greatest Strengths tional vote in these showdown tests, showdown test. ented field of eight. Sen. Hubert Humphrey's base of support among and the results by party affiliation of When Nixon and Kennedy were H prey leads Sen. Edmund Muskie respondents: The degree of enthusiasm generated matched in an earlier (February) Democrats registered to vote is with anong Democratic voters by a vote by leading Democratic presidential trial heat the P lent held a 1" to manual workers, blacks, persons with of 4 to 49 per cent with seven per Muskie VS. Humphrey possibilities has been measured by 39 per cent lead over Kennedy. with relatively little formal education and -ent underided (Choices of registered voters) means of a sensitive TO point attitude 0 per cent for Wallace and five per citizens in lower income groups. Muskie HHH Undec. scale. The two top positions on the cent undecided. Sen Edward Kennedy elso leads - Muskie's Greatest Strengths % % % scale represent a rating of "highly Muslue in a showdown test among Muskie's appeal is with middle-in- favorable." McGovern's National Democrats 39 54 7 Dear rats who are registered to vote, come and better-educated Democrats, as Vote Post Wisconsin Independents 47 35 18 For by a smaller margin, 50 to 42 per Kennedy receives a "highly favor- well as the Independent voters. Republicans Senator George McGovero of South 42 41 17 able" rating of 33 per cent among all cent Dakota was not inclu 111 the latest - Kennedy's Greatest Strengths ====== persons interviewed in a recent survey, Despite Muskie's poorer showing Kennedy owes much of his strength NATIONWIDE 42 survey because. or to the 11 onsin 45 13 compared to 26 for Muskie and 23 per than Humphrey and Kennedy among primary. be had no been able to estable among Democrats to the support of cent for Humphrey. the party faithful. be leads both men Muskle V.S. Kennedy lish hims.:I as a leading contende for women, blacks, persons with relatively arrong the large bloc of Independent (Choices of registered voters) Nixon Has 11 Per Cent the nomination in nationicide SURVEYS little formal education and with young voters who constitute about a third of voters under 30 years of age. Muskie Kennedy Undec. Scale Rating McGovern's strategy has been to con He electorate % % % Each Democrat tested fails to match centrate on key primaries rather than Following are the questions asked Democrats 42 50 8 President Nixon's current "highly fav- to campaign nationally relying 111 his Kennedy Demonstrates in the latest survey, which was con- Independents 48 38 14 orable" score of 41 per cent. The showing in those individual states to Greatest "Charisma" ducted March 24-27 with 1478 adults, Republicans 66 19 15 President's lead in this respect is re- make him strong nationally. Whether Of the three men tested. Kennedy 18 and older, in more than 300 locali- flected in recent trial heats which show this strategy pays off will be measured demonstrates the greatest "charisma" ties across the nation: NATIONWIDE 50 39 11 him leading Humphrey among register- by Gallup surveys in the coming weeks The Gallup Poll Niron Widens Lead Over HHH, Muskie By George Gallup PRINCETON, N.J.-Sens. interview March 24-27 in Hubert H. Humphrey and more than 300 localities Edmund S. Muskie have lost across the nation. This ques- tion was asked: ground in trial heats against Suppose the presidential President Nixon and now election were being held to. trail the President by the day. If Richard Nixon were widest margin to date. the Republican candidate and Humphrey and Muskie Hubert Humphrey (Edmund now show about equal Muskie) were the Democratic strength in races against candidate, and George Wal- lace ran again as a third-party Mr. Nixon, with Humphrey candidate, which would you trailing by 11 percentage like to see win? points and Muskie by 10. Following are the results Mr. Nixon wins the sup- of trial heats with Mr. Nix- port of 46 per cent of regis- on, Humphrey and Wallace tered voters to 35 per cent since January, 1971: for Humphrey and 15 per Wal- Un- cent for Wallace as a third- Nixon HHH lace dec. March 24-27 46% 35% 15% 10. party candidate. Four per Feb. 4-7 46 39 10 5 Nov. cent are undecided. 19-22, '71 47 37 12 4 Aug. 20-23 43 37 11 9 In a contest with Muskie, May 7-10 4? 39 12 7 Mr. Nixon now leads 46 per March 12-14 46 36 12 6 Jan. 9-10 & 38 10 4 cent to 36 per cent, with 14 per cent for Wallace and 4 Following are the results per cent undecided. of trial heats with Mr. Nixon, Until the latest survey, Muskie and Wallace since Muskie had consistently January, 1971: made a better showing than Wal- Un- Humphrey in trial heats Nixon Muskie face dec. Mach 24-27 46% 36% 14% 4% against Mr. Nixon and Wal- Feb. +7 43 42 10 5 Nov. lace. In contrast, Hum- 19-22, '71 44 41 10 5 phrey's best showing against Oct. 8-11 43 35 13 9 Aug. 24-23 42 36 11 11 the President to date was May 7-10 39 41 12 8 March 12-14 43 39 12 6 last May, when he won 39 Jan. 9-10 44 44 9 3 per cent of the support of © 1972. Field Enterprises. Inc. registered voters to 42 per cent for Mr. Nixon. Humphrey has retained the front-runner position for his party's nomination, win- ning the support of 31 per cent of Democratic voters nationwide. compared to 23 per cent for Muskie and 15 per cent for Wallace. Despite Humphrey's lead among Democrats for the nomination, his showing against Mr. Nixon is no bet- ter than Muskie's. This is ex- plained in large part by Muskie's far greater appeal among independent voters. Among independents, Mr. Nixon leads Muskie 46 per cent to 29 per cent, but against Humpbrey, Mr. Nix- on's margin is 52 per cent to 23 per cent. Wallace's current vote as a third-party candidate in these trial heat races is the highest since the 1968 elec- tion when he won 13.6 per cent of the national vote to 43.4 per cent for Mr. Nixon and 43 per cent for Hum- phrey. The latest trial heats are based on in-person inter- views with a total of 1.151 registered voters out of a total sample of 1 178 not NMBC GALLUP AND HARRIS TRIAL HEATS 1968 - 1972 RNC RESEARCH DIVISION MARCH 28, 1972 GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1968 NIXON HUMPHREY WALLACE NOT SURE October 31, 1968 42% 40% 14% 4% October 17, 1968 44 36 15 5 October 3, 1968 43 31 20 6 September 27, 1968 44 29 20 7 September 20, 1968 43 28 21 8 September 3, 1968 43 31 19 7 August 21, 1968 45 29 18 8 July 20, 1968 40 38 16 6 June 29, 1968 35 40 16 9 June 15, 1968 37 42 14 7 May 25, 1968 36 42 14 8 May 4, 1968 39 36 14 11 April'6, 1968 43 34 9 14 NIXON McCARTHY WALLACE NOT SURE August 21, 1968 42% 37% 16% 5% July 20, 1968 41 36 16 7 June 29, 1968 36 39 18 7 June 15, 1968 39 41 14 6 May 25, 1968 40 38 13 9 May 4, 1968 39 37 14 10 April 6, 1968 41 38 10 11 NIXON KENNEDY WALLACE NOT SURE April 6, 1968 41% 38% 10% 11% HARRIS SURVEY - TRIAL HEATS 1968 NIXON HUMPHREY WALLACE NOT SURE November 1, 1968 42% 40% 12% 6% October 27, 1968 40 37 16 7 October 9, 1968 40 35 18 7 September 27, 1968 44 29 20 7 September 20, 1968 43 28 21 8 September 11, 1968 39 31 21 9 September 3, 1968 43 31 19 7 August 24, 1968 40 34 17 9 July 25, 1968 36 41 16 7 July 6, 1968 35 37 17 11 June 11, 1968 36 43 13 8 May, 1968 36 38 13 13 -2- HARRIS SURVEY - TRIAL HEATS 1968 CONT. NIXON KENNEDY WALLACE NOT SURE May, 1968 40% 38% 14% 8% April, 1968 35 41 8 16 March, 1968 39 44 10 7 NIXON McCARTHY WALLACE NOT SURE August 24, 1968 41% 35% 16% 8% July 26, 1968 35 43 15 7 July 8, 1968 34 42 16 8 June 10, 1968 36 44 12 8 Late May, 1968 40 39 14 7 Early May, 1968 37 40 13 10 March, 1968 43 34 14 9 HARRIS SURVEYS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972 NIXON-MUSKIE-WALLACE TREND NIXON MUSKIE WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 44% 40% 11% 5% January, 1972 42 42 11 5 November, 1971 43 39 11 7 September, 1971 47 35 11 7 August, 1971 43 41 12 4 June, 1971 40 42 13 5 May, 1971 40 42 11 7 April, 1971 39 47 11 3 February, 1971 39 44 12 5 January, 1971 40 43 11 6 November, 1970 40 46 10 4 September, 1970 43 43 10 4 May, 1970 42 38 12 8 April, 1970 47 36 10 7 February, 1970 49 35 11 5 November, 1969 49 35 11 5 October, 1969 51 35 9 5 May, 1969 51 35 11 3 NIXON-MUSKIE RACE TREND NIXON MUSKIE NOT SURE February, 1972 47% 45% 8% January, 1972 45 48 7 November, 1971 48 43 9 September, 1971 50 40 10 -3- NIXON - MUSKIE RACE TREND CONT. NIXON MUSKIE NOT SURE August, 1971 47% 45% 8% June, 1971 46 46 8 April, 1971 44 50 6 February, 1971 42 48 10 January, 1971 46 49 5 NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE TREND NIXON HUMPHREY WALLACE NOT SURE March, 1972 48% 35% 12% 5% February, 1972 47 36 12 5 January, 1972 46 37 12 5 November, 1971 45 36 12 7 September, 1971 45 36 12 7 May, 1971 44 39 10 7 April, 1971 42 41 13 4 November, 1970 46 39 11 4 April, 1970 50 36 11 3 November, 1969 48 37 12 3 November, 1968 (actual vote) 44 43 13 GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972 TREND SINCE 1969 NIXON MUSKIE WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 43% 42% 10% 5% January 7-10, 1972 43 42 12 3 November 19-22, 1971 44 41 10 5 October 8-11 43 35 13 9 August 20-23 42 36 11 11 May 7-10 39 41 12 8 March 12-14 43 39 12 6 January 9-10 44 44 9 3 December 5-6, 1970 44 43 9 4 June 19-22 43 36 13 8 January 30-February 2 47 35 13 5 September 12-15, 1969 49 34 11 6 -4- GALLUP POLLS - TRIAL HEATS 1969-1972 CONT. NIXON KENNEDY WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 47% 39% 9% 5% November, 1971 44 41 10 5 August, 1971 43 38 10 9 May, 1971 42 41 10 7 March, 1971 46 38 11 5 January, 1971 47 38 9 6 December, 1970 47 37 11 5 January, 1970 49 35 11 5 September, 1969 53 31 10 6 July, 1969 52 36 9 3 April, 1969 52 33 10 7 NIXON HUMPHREY WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 46% 39% 10% 5% November, 1971 47 37 12 4 August, 1971 43 37 11 9 May, 1971 42 39 12 7 March, 1971 46 36 12 6 January, 1971 48 38 10 4 April, 1970 50 32 11 7 February, 1970 54 34 12 X January, 1970 50 33 13 4 September, 1969 53 33 11 3 NIXON LINDSAY WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 53% 29% 12% 6% August, 1971 45 30 12 13 December, 1970 48 35 12 5 June, 1970 46 29 15 10 NIXON McGOVERN WALLACE NOT SURE February, 1972 49% 34% 11% 6% November, 1971 49 33 12 6 NIXON McCARTHY WALLACE NOT SURE January, 1970 55% 24% 12% 9% File Gallup Administratively Confidential March 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Poll - Democratic Contenders Discussion with the Gallup Organization this morning indicated that the Sunday, March 19 release on the Democratic Contenders will show Humphrey as the leader for the Democratic nomination. The question: "Which One of the men on this list would you like to see nominated as the Democratic candidate for President in 1972:" Polbay 0 3/-3-5 2/4 1/7-9 Humphrey 35% 23 32 29 Muskie 28 35 39 Lindsay 8 7 McGovern 7 3 McCarthy 6 Jackson 5 4 was Chisholm 3 3 2 Martke 1 / * Yorty 1 I 2 No Preference 6 9 7 The polling dates were March 3 - 5. The headline will be "Humphrey Takes Lead as Top Choice." When the question included Wallace the results were: Humphrey 31% Muskie 23 Wallace 15 Lindsay 7 McGovern 6 McCarthy 5 Jackson 3 Chisholm a Mills 2 Hartke 1 Yorty 0 The No Preference Jan an Feb 5 lests did not include Wallace File Gallep Administratively Confidential March 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Gallup Poll - Democratic Contenders Discussion with the Gallup Organization this morning indicated that the Sunday, March 19 release on the Democratic Contenders will show Humphrey as the leader for the Democratic nomination. The question: "Which One of the men on this list would you like to see nominated as the Democratic candidate for President in 1972:" Humphrey 35% Muskie 28 Lindsay 8 McGovern 7 McCarthy 6 Jackson 5 Chisholm 3 Hartke 1 Yorty 1 No Preference 6 The polling dates were March 3 - 5. The headline will be "Humphrey Takes Lead as Top Choice." When the question included Wallace the results were: Humphrey 31% Muskie 23 Wallace 15 Lindsay 7 McGovern 6 McCarthy 5 Jackson 3 Chisholm a Mills 2 Hartke 1 Yorty 0 No Preference 5 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 3/15 Date: TO: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN You have reviewed the Gallup Opinion Index that is the basis for Khachigian's comments. The comments on California colleges are particularly apt. His memorandum will be sent to Colson and Reitz for follow-up. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON March 15, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR MR. HALDEMAN FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN Ver Information coming out of the February Gallup Opinion Index sheds interesting light on the political views of college students. We can learn from it profitably. Although the President's approval rating is negative with college students -- 43%-51% -- certain groups within the general survey show potentiality for our side. For example, those college students 18 years of age and under approve of RN 48% to 43%. It gets less up the scale to students 21 to 24 whose approval is around 36% while disapproval is at 57%. By class, freshmen approve RN 49%-43% while graduate students approve at 20% and disapprove at 75%. it The lesson here is that Freshmen political views are much more conventional and have had less time to be radicalized. And, we ought to be focusing on the younger college students in terms of namy appeals. However, it should be noted that nonregistered voter students approve of RN in higher percentages than do the registered students. The lesson there is that we have got to get more of our supporters registered. Right Moreover, Protestant students approve of RN 57% to 37% while Catholic students are a toss-up 47%-47%. Finally, the President's support at denominational colleges is overwhelming -- 66% approve of him and only 29% disapprove. Are we looking at these statistics and making a big effort at denominational schools (which include Protestant schools, e.g., Southern Methodist, and the like)? we sere should be Some of the above statistics are confirmed in that 18 and 19 year old college students preferred RN to McCloskey in a trial heat by a 43% to 37% margin while the older students favored McCloskey by about 51% to 30%. Page 2 Recommendation. that the above information be taken into consideration on how our college activities are targeted. Of greater interest is the fact that the younger college students will be likely more pro-RN, and perhaps we have forgotten about all the hundreds of two-year colleges in the country. California alone has about 100 junior colleges, where students living close to parents will vote more like their parents and probably be more pro-RN, Why don't we make a special effort to emphasize two-year colleges throughout the country in our organizing activities -- stir up the latent vote for RN which exists there. It seems to me it is information of this sort (we need more) which would help target the youth effort, and targeting is precisely what we need to make the most out of this vote that we can. Good! THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 1, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR MR. HALDEMAN Ve FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN Even though the Gallup Polls are published regularly in the media, the published polls do not give the detail that is often desirable. Each month, Gallup puts out an opinion index which breaks down into subpopulation groups the prevailing opinion that the poll measured. From time to time I have broken out some of the more interesting data to send to Buchanan and Whitaker. Pat asked that I send these to you on a regular basis each month for the President's perusal. Below are the most recent ones I sent to Buchanan. If there is any particular item you are interested in, let me know, and I can break it out when the index comes to me each month from the RNC. FARMERS Popularity (December 10-13, 1971) approve disapprove no opinion National 49% 37% 14% Farmers 55 30 15 Trial Heats (November 19-22, 1971) RN Muskie Wallace No opinion National 44% 41% 10% 5% Farmers 50 34 11 5 RN Kennedy Wallace No opinion National 44% 41% 10% 5% Farmers 51 32 12 5 Page 2 RN Humphrey Wallace No opinion National 47% 37% 12% 4% Farmers 49 36 10 5 RN McGovern Wallace No opinion National 49% 33% 12% 6% Farmers 62 18 11 9 CATHOLICS Popularity (December 10-13, 1971) approve disapprove no opinion 48% 39% 13% Trial Heats (November 19-22, 1971) RN Muskie Wallace No opinion 35% 51% 9% 5% RN Kennedy Wallace No opinion 34% 53% 9% 4% RN HHH Wallace No opinion 39% 44% 11% 6% RN McGovern Wallace No opinion 40% 42% 12% 6% The trial heat should be compared to RN's showing among Catholics in 1968 where he got 33% to HHH's 59% to Wallace's 8%. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Administratively Confidential January 17, 1972 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN G SUBJECT: Gallup Popularity Dwight Chapin reached John Davies at Gallup and learned that on Thursday, January 20, the new Presidential popularity figures will be released. They are as follows: Approve 49% Disapprove 39% No Opinion 12% Also to be released is a special college popularity figure: Approve 43% Disapprove 51% No Opinion 6% John Davies believes this college popularity is much better than most would expect. Also, John Davies told Dwight that he believes Humphrey will be the Democratic nominee because "Muskie is so bad". The polling dates were January 7-8. THE WHITE HOUSE Pallm WASHINGTON December 16, 1971 CONFIDENTIAL DETERMINED TO BE AN ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING MEMORANDUM FOR E.O. 12065, Section 6-102 By EmPrise NARS, Date 5-22-80 Honorable Earl Butz Secretary of Agriculture Honorable H. R. Haldeman FROM: John C. Whitaker SUBJECT: Gallup Poll qu These figures, if accurate, are a significant erosion of the President's position among farmers if you follow the conventional theory that the President must do very well indeed among farmers to overcome strong Democratic margins in the larger cities of the farm states. It will be interesting to see the next poll, if you accept the premise that the poll could well represent a low point due to farm belt being stirred up over Secretary Butz' nomination fight and low corn prices. The next poll should reflect higher corn prices and a very positive image of Secretary Butz. cc: John D. Ehrlichman THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON December 15, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN C. WHITAKER FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN The SUBJECT: GALLUP POLL As in the past, we have received information on the latest trial heats breaking out farmer opinion from the general sample. Here are the latest findings (note that McGovern has been included for the first time). RN Muskie Wallace Und. National 44% 41% 10% 5% Farmers 51 34 10 5 RN EMK Wallace Und. National 44% 41% 10% 5% Farmers 45 41 10 4 RN HHH Wallace Und. National 47% 37% 12% 4% Farmers 45 41 10 4 RN McGovern Wallace Und. National 49% 33% 12% 6% Farmers 59 18 14 9 Page 2 You should note that the interview dates for this polling were November 19-22 -- during the confirmation fight for Earl Butz. That may account for the softening of support vis 'a vis the opposition. Muskie pulled up a little bit, as did Kennedy. Humphrey made an enormous jump since the last poll -- perhaps reflecting his outspokenness during the Butz confirmation. McGovern, who is supposed to be the farmer's friend, gets absolutely wiped out by RN. Please compare these figures with the ones included in a memo I sent you on November 22. I send these with the usual caveats that I don't take complete stock in their accuracy while believing they help show trends. H regiod THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON File Gollup Date: 11/15 TO: H.R. Haldeman FROM: John C. Whitaker FYI MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 10, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN WHITAKER FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN Der SUBJECT: GALLUP POLL - FARMERS The latest Gallup trial heat to come out pits the President head to head with Muskie, and with the farmers the news is very good. Shown below is how it compares with the previous poll. The October poll had 136 farmers in its sample which is a bigger sample than they have used before and therefore more reliable. But with my usual warnings that these figures are not rock hard reliable, here are the results: Interview dates - October 8 - 11 Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided Farmers 55% 22% 13% 10% National 43% 35% 13% 9% Interview dates - August 16-20 Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided - Farmers 43% 30% 16% 11% National 41% 37% 10% 12% This is before the added $600 million and before the Russian grain deal. We must be doing something right! galewp free Administratively Confidential September 20, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H.R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: George Gallup, Jr. - Rumsfeld Meeting Dwight Chapin has been acting as the "White House Contact" with the Gallup Organization (John Davies). Chapin has had very limited success either in obtaining the results of polls in advance or in explaining our substantive complaints about some of the releases. Chapin believes that a more senior contact with the Gallup Organization might be more fruitful. To that end, Colson and Chapin met with Rumsfeld and strongly urged him to contact George Gallup, Jr. After some considerable pressure, Rumsfeld had lunch on September 16 with George Gallup, Jr. to explain some of the White House concerns with Gallup polls. Rumsfeld used the following specific examples in his discussion: 1) The unfairness of having the "73% favor withdrawal of all U.S. tropps from Vietnam" without follow-up questions about the consequences (loss of POWs, communist takeover, etc.); 2) The six month lock on a 50% approval rating when Harris and our private polls show a rise following the Red China and new economic policy announcements; 3) The unfairness of the question "Which political party do you think would be more likely to keep the United States out of World War III (keep the country propperous) -- the Republican Party or Democratic Party?". This question, of course, favors the Democrats because of their higher regis- tration. Rumsfeld suggested that the question be asked: "Do you think Richard Nixon or Edmund Muskie would be more likely The possibility of using polling contacts similar to the Harris-Family Issues In Depth Poll was raised with Counsellor Rumsfeld as a follow-up to a meeting that Colson and Chapin had with Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would not suggest the possibility of polling contracts to Gallup because "they are not the type" and would not be receptive. -2- Recommendation: Rumsfeld should now replace Chapin as the contact with Gallup to acquire interesting results early. Approve Disapprove Comment If approve, a memorandum for your signature to Rumsfeld is attached. GS:1m fall April 2, 1971 Galley MEMORANDUM FOR LARRY HIGBY FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: GalluppOrganization Gallup's organization, the American Institute of Public Opinion, is owned by George Gallup and a minority passive partner. George Gallup Senior has begun to distribute his majority stock control interest to his three or four children. However it is very clear that the Gallup family still controls the majority interest. President of the Gallup organization, Paul Perry, has control of 10% of the minority interest. Similiarly other officers in the Gallup organization control small minority shares. cc: Gallup File