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This file contains:
From Strachan to Higby RE: Gallup presidential trial heat figures. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/29/1972
Gallup poll presidential trial heats from 1948 to 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
In-depth trial heats from years of presidential races between Truman's 1948 election and pre-election polling in 1969. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release titled "McGovern Viewed as 'Left of Center' by Increasing Number of Voters." Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/27/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting polling figures on key election issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/18/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing support for RN and McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points from a discussion with John Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's relations with the Democratic Party on election issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/6/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 8/9/1972
Gallup polling results from the 1952 presidential election. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Financial Records], no date
A Gallup Poll release titled "Democrats Have Succeeded in Closing Registration Gap on Republicans." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/13/1972
Handwritten notes related to polling figures and release dates for the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Note from the Gallup organization RE: releases of new polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 8/8/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points from a discussion with John Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/4/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public opinion on the Vietnam War, the economy, and other campaign issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/3/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's polling numbers with relation to those of the Democratic Party. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/6/1972
A Gallup Poll release displaying poll results on unconditional amnesty for those who avoided the draft by leaving the country. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting data on key voter groups supporting RN and McGovern. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/30/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information from a conversation with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten note added by Haldeman. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/24/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting statistics on voters' choice for RN's running mate. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/27/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/24/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting the possible negative impacts of a Democratic voter registration drive. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/23/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN's lead over McGovern his lead over Humphrey in 1968. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the latest Gallup polling figures, particularly those which relate to inflation. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/18/1972
Gallup Poll Report No. 84 presenting comprehensive polling results before the Democratic National Convention. 36 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
A Gallup Poll release charting RN's popularity through polling. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/16/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public perceptions of causes behind inflation. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/13/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting Democratic division over key election issues before that party's national convention. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling numbers of Democratic candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/10/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: in-depth results of recent Gallup polling. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/26/1972
Handwritten notes on trial heat numbers obtained from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Form letter from George Gallup, Jr. to periodical editors RE: the unveiling of the National Public Opinion Referendum and campaign polling. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], no date
The Public Opinion Referendum, an article run in "The Public Opinion Quarterly," volume 35, in the summer of 1971. Written by George Gallup, Jr. Only cover scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/26/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon Maintains Wide Leads Over McGovern and Humphrey." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting voter opinions on gun laws. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/1/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information obtained during a conversation with Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a recent Gallup survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/22/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/22/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN's popularity among voters. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/25/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing polling figures for McGovern and Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/22/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/21/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Catholic voter trends in 1972. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/18/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the Gallup survey to be released on June 11. Detailed trial heat figures attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/8/1972
A Gallup Poll release discussing the Republican attempt to label McGovern a radical. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/17/1972
A Gallup Poll release discussing McGovern's support among Independents, as well as Wallace's campaign position. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/9/1972
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146118
label
WHSF: Contested, 43-3
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146118
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 43-3
description
This file contains:
From Strachan to Higby RE: Gallup presidential trial heat figures. 13 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/29/1972
Gallup poll presidential trial heats from 1948 to 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
In-depth trial heats from years of presidential races between Truman's 1948 election and pre-election polling in 1969. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release titled "McGovern Viewed as 'Left of Center' by Increasing Number of Voters." Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/27/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting polling figures on key election issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/18/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing support for RN and McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/20/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points from a discussion with John Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's relations with the Democratic Party on election issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/6/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 8/9/1972
Gallup polling results from the 1952 presidential election. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Financial Records], no date
A Gallup Poll release titled "Democrats Have Succeeded in Closing Registration Gap on Republicans." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/13/1972
Handwritten notes related to polling figures and release dates for the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Note from the Gallup organization RE: releases of new polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 8/8/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points from a discussion with John Davies. Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/4/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 7 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public opinion on the Vietnam War, the economy, and other campaign issues. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/3/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's polling numbers with relation to those of the Democratic Party. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/6/1972
A Gallup Poll release displaying poll results on unconditional amnesty for those who avoided the draft by leaving the country. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/4/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting data on key voter groups supporting RN and McGovern. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/30/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information from a conversation with George Gallup, Jr. Handwritten note added by Haldeman. Duplicate attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/24/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting statistics on voters' choice for RN's running mate. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/27/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/24/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting the possible negative impacts of a Democratic voter registration drive. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/23/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN's lead over McGovern his lead over Humphrey in 1968. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/21/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the latest Gallup polling figures, particularly those which relate to inflation. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/18/1972
Gallup Poll Report No. 84 presenting comprehensive polling results before the Democratic National Convention. 36 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
A Gallup Poll release charting RN's popularity through polling. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/16/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Photograph], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public perceptions of causes behind inflation. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/13/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting Democratic division over key election issues before that party's national convention. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/11/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling numbers of Democratic candidates. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/10/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: in-depth results of recent Gallup polling. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/26/1972
Handwritten notes on trial heat numbers obtained from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Form letter from George Gallup, Jr. to periodical editors RE: the unveiling of the National Public Opinion Referendum and campaign polling. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], no date
The Public Opinion Referendum, an article run in "The Public Opinion Quarterly," volume 35, in the summer of 1971. Written by George Gallup, Jr. Only cover scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/26/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon Maintains Wide Leads Over McGovern and Humphrey." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release charting voter opinions on gun laws. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 7/1/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information obtained during a conversation with Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results of a recent Gallup survey. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/22/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/22/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN's popularity among voters. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/25/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing polling figures for McGovern and Humphrey. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/22/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/21/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Catholic voter trends in 1972. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/18/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 6/13/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the Gallup survey to be released on June 11. Detailed trial heat figures attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 6/8/1972
A Gallup Poll release discussing the Republican attempt to label McGovern a radical. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/17/1972
A Gallup Poll release discussing McGovern's support among Independents, as well as Wallace's campaign position. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 6/9/1972
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Source extras
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26146118
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
8/29/1972
Campaign
Other Document
From Strachan to Higby RE: Gallup
presidential trial heat figures. 13 pgs.
43
3
Campaign
Other Document
Gallup poll presidential trial heats from 1948
to 1972. 1 pg.
43
3
Campaign
Other Document
In-depth trial heats from years of presidential
races between Truman's 1948 election and
pre-election polling in 1969. 12 pgs.
43
3
8/27/1972
Campaign
Other Document
A Gallup Poll release titled "McGovern
Viewed as 'Left of Center' by Increasing
Number of Voters." Duplicate not scanned.
2 pgs.
43
3
8/18/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting polling
figures on key election issues. 1 pg.
43
3
8/20/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing support for
RN and McGovern. 2 pgs.
43
3
8/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points
from a discussion with John Davies.
Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs.
43
3
8/6/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's
relations with the Democratic Party on
election issues. 1 pg.
43
3
8/9/1972
Campaign
Photograph
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 1 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
Campaign
Financial Records
Gallup polling results from the 1952
presidential election. 1 pg.
43
3
8/13/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "Democrats
Have Succeeded in Closing Registration Gap
on Republicans." 2 pgs.
43
3
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes related to polling figures
and release dates for the 1952 and 1956
presidential elections. 1 pg.
43
3
8/8/1972
Campaign
Photograph
Note from the Gallup organization RE:
releases of new polling data. 1 pg.
43
3
8/4/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: key points
from a discussion with John Davies.
Handwritten note added by unknown. 2 pgs.
43
3
8/4/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 7 pgs.
43
3
8/3/1972
Campaign
Other Document
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public
opinion on the Vietnam War, the economy,
and other campaign issues. 1 pg.
43
3
8/6/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's
polling numbers with relation to those of the
Democratic Party. Duplicate not scanned. 1
pg.
43
3
8/4/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release displaying poll results
on unconditional amnesty for those who
avoided the draft by leaving the country.
Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/30/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release presenting data on key
voter groups supporting RN and McGovern.
Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 2 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
7/24/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information
from a conversation with George Gallup, Jr.
Handwritten note added by Haldeman.
Duplicate attached. 2 pgs.
43
3
7/27/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release presenting statistics on
voters' choice for RN's running mate.
Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/24/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4
pgs.
43
3
7/23/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting the possible
negative impacts of a Democratic voter
registration drive. Duplicate not scanned. 1
pg.
43
3
7/21/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN's lead
over McGovern his lead over Humphrey in
1968. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
8/18/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the latest
Gallup polling figures, particularly those
which relate to inflation. 1 pg.
43
3
Campaign
Report
Gallup Poll Report No. 84 presenting
comprehensive polling results before the
Democratic National Convention. 36 pgs.
43
3
7/16/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting RN's
popularity through polling. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/11/1972
Campaign
Photograph
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4
pgs.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 3 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
7/13/1972
Campaign
Other Document
A Gallup Poll release analyzing public
perceptions of causes behind inflation.
Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/11/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and George Gallup, Jr. 4
pgs.
43
3
7/11/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting Democratic
division over key election issues before that
party's national convention. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/10/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing polling
numbers of Democratic candidates. 1 pg.
43
3
6/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: in-depth
results of recent Gallup polling. 3 pgs.
43
3
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes on trial heat numbers
obtained from Davies. 1 pg.
43
3
Campaign
Letter
Form letter from George Gallup, Jr. to
periodical editors RE: the unveiling of the
National Public Opinion Referendum and
campaign polling. 2 pgs.
43
3
Campaign
Other Document
"The Public Opinion Referendum," an article
run in "The Public Opinion Quarterly,"
volume 35, in the summer of 1971. Written
by George Gallup, Jr. Only cover scanned. 1
pg.
43
3
6/26/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs.
43
3
7/2/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon
Maintains Wide Leads Over McGovern and
Humphrey." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 4 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
7/1/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting voter
opinions on gun laws. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
7/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: information
obtained during a conversation with Davies.
2 pgs.
43
3
6/22/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the results
of a recent Gallup survey. 1 pg.
43
3
6/22/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs.
43
3
6/25/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN's
popularity among voters. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
6/22/1972
Campaign
Other Document
A Gallup Poll release comparing polling
figures for McGovern and Humphrey.
Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
3
6/21/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 3 pgs.
43
3
6/18/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Catholic
voter trends in 1972. Duplicate not scanned.
1 pg.
43
3
6/13/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 6 pgs.
43
3
6/8/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the Gallup
survey to be released on June 11. Detailed
trial heat figures attached. 3 pgs.
43
3
6/17/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release discussing the
Republican attempt to label McGovern a
radical. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 5 of 6
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
3
6/9/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release discussing
McGovern's support among Independents, as
well as Wallace's campaign position. 2 pgs.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Page 6 of 6
1mm
UNCLAS
DAC
GPS
PRECEDENCE
CLASSIFICATION
TO: LARRY HIGBY
FOR COMMCENTER USE ONLY
LDX 574
PAGES 12
TTY
CITE
FROM: GORDON STRACHAN
DTG 2921252
INFO:
RELEASED BY: GA
TOR: 2921512/NS
SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS:
.72 LY in
TRIAL HEATS Gallup
1948
DATE
Dewey
Truman
Wallace
Thurmond Undecided
July 31
48
36
5
10
V
August 21
48
37
4
2
9
September 26
46
-39
4
2
9
October 16
46
40
4
2
8
October 20
50
44
4
2
0
November I 55.5
44.5
Oct. 31
49.5
445
4
2
0
Actual Vote:
Republican
21,991,291
45.1%
Democrat
24,179,345
49.6%
Other
2,623,190
5.3 %
k
1952
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Eisenhower
Kefauver
Undecided
May 30-June 4
55
35
10. ( no % available
on Stevenson in
this one)
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July 25-30
45
43
12
August 23-28
51
43
6
September 6-11
51
42
7
September 28-
October 3'
45
38
17
Actual Votes and Percentage:
Republican:
33,936,234
55.1%
Democrat:
27,314,992
44.4%
Other:
299,692
.5%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1956
DATE
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July (pre convention)
61
37
2
2%
September 8
52
41
7
October 9
52
40
8
October 26
55
45
November 1
59.5
40.5
Actual Vote:
Republican
35,590,472
57.4%
21,991,291
24,179,345
26',022, 752
43.0 %
Democrat
Other
2,623,190
413,684 6%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1964
DATE
LBJ
Goldwater
Undecided
July 10
76
20
4
August 23
65
29
6
September 16
65
29
6
September 27
68
32
October 18
64
29
7
November 2
61
32
7
Actual Vote:
Republican
27, 178, 188
38.5 %
.
Democrat
43, 129, 566
61.1 %
Other
336,838
4%
1968
DATE
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinior
June 29-July 3
35
40
16
9
July 19-21
40
38
16
6
August (pre Convention)
45
29
18
8
1%
September 3-7
43
31
19
7
September 20-22
43
28
21
S
September 27-30
44
29
20
7
October 3-12
43
31
20
6
October 17
44
36
15
5
October 31
42
40
14
4
Actual Vote:
Republican
31,785,430
43. 4 70
Democrat
31,274,166
42.77
Amer. Ind.
9, 906, 473
13.570
Other
244,756
470
1968
SEPTEMBER 3-7
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinion
NATIONAL
43
31
19
7
SEX
Male
43
27
24
6
Female
44
34
14
8
11
RACE
White
46
27
20
7
Non-white
EDUCATION
College
56
26
10
8
High School
41
29
22
8
Grade School
36
39
18
7
OCCUPATION
Professional & Bus.
53
24
16
7
White Collar
51
29
13
7
Farmers
45
15
29
11
Manual Worker
35
35
22
8
AGE
21 -29
43
33
18
6
30-49
42
31
19
8
50-
45
30
19
6
RELIGION
Protestant
47
25
22
6
Catholic
37
41
12
10
POLITICS
Republican
89
3
7
1
Democrats
10
63
17
10
Independents
39
20
33
8
REGION
East
45
35
8
12
Midwest
50
29
16
5
South
29
26
39
6
West
51
33
10
6
INCOME
$10,000 +
55
25
14
$7,000+
6
47
29
18
$5,000-6, 999
6
45
29
18
$3-4,999
8
34
33
21
Under $3,000
12
36
39
20
5
COMMUNITY SIZE
1 million
46
35
9
500,000 +
10
44
36
11
50,000 - 499,999
9
43
37
13
2,500-49,999
7
44
27
24
Under 2,500
5
42
22
29
7
Gailup Irial Heats
1972
Nixon
McGovern
No Opinion
July 30
56
37
7
July 14-17
56
37
7
June 16-19
53
37
10
May 26-29
53
34
11
Vi
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
NotSure
April 28-May 5 (last one) 972)46
30
16
8
March 24-7 , 1972
46
36
14
4
February, 1972
43
42
10
5
January 7-10, 1972
43
42
12
3
17
November 19-22, 1971
44
41
10
5
October 8-11
43
35
13
9
August 20-23, 1971
42
36
11
11
May 7 -10
39
41
12
8
March 12-14
43
39
12
6
January, 9-10, 197.1
44
44
9
3
December 5-6, 1970
44
43
9
4
June 19-22
43
36
13
8
January 30-Feb 2, 1970
47
35
13
5
September a 12-15, 1969
49
34
11
6
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1972
DATE
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Not Sure
July 14 - 17
46
33
18
4
June 16 - 19
**
45
32
18
5
May 26 - 29
43
30
19
8
April 28 - May 1
43
35
15
7
February
49
34
11
6
November 1971
49
33
12
6
Gallup Trial Heats
Nixon
HHH
Wallace
Not Sure
June 16-19 (last one)
47
28
18
7
May 26-29
43
26
22
9
April 28 May 1
45
34
15
6
March 24-7
46
35
15
4
February
46
39
10
5
November 1971
47
37
12
4
84
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
DATE
Nixon
Kennedy
Wallace
Not Sure
April 15-16 (most recent)
46
36
12
6
February 1972
47
39
9
5
November 1971
44
41
10
5
11
August 1971
43
38
10
9
May 1971
42
41
10
7
March 1971
46
38
11
5
January 1971
47
38
9
6
December 1970
47
37
11
5
January 1970
49
35
11
5
September 1969
53
31
10
6
July 1969
52
36
9
3
April 1969
52
33
10
7
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JAN
53-47
FEB
49-34-11- 6
MAR
50-50
APR
46-31-15- 8
47-53
45-32-16- 7
46-54
49-39-12
MAY
49-51
53-34-13
55-35-10
JUN
51-49
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
48-52
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-37- 7
AUG
48-37-4-2- 9
51-43- 6
53-47
57-31-12
29-65-6
45-29-18-8
50-50
64-30-6
.
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2- 9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
49-51
29-65-6
43-28-21-8
51-49
32-68-0
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
48-52
OCT
50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
52-40-8
50-50
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
55-45-0
49-44-4-2- 0
47-53
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
49-51
32-61-7
DEC
Actual
(Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
43.4%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
44.4
42.0
50.1
61.1
42.7
(Other)
5.3
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1948
DATE
Dewey
Truman
Wallace
Thurmond Undecided
July 31
48
36
5
10
August 21
48
37
4
2
9
September 26
46
39
4
2
9
October 16
46
40
4
2
8
October 20
50
44
4
2
0
November T 55.5
44.5
Oct 31
49.5
445
4
2
0
Actual Vote:
Republican
21,991,291
45.1 %
Democrat
24,179,345
49.6 %
Other
2,623,190
5.3 %
k
1952
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Eisenhower
Kefauwer
Undecided
May 30-June 4
55
35
10. ( no % available
on Stevenson in
this one)
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July 25-30
45
43
12
August 23-28
51
43
6
September 6-11
51
42
7
September 28-
October 3
45
38
17
Actual Votes and Percentage:
Republican:
33,936,234
55.1%
Democrat:
27,314,992
44.4%
Other:
299,692
.5%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1956
DATE
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July (pre convention)
61
37
2
27
September 8
52
41
7
October 9
52
40
8
October 26
55
45
November 1
59.5
40.5
Actual Vote:
Republican
35,590,472
57.4%
21,991,291
Democrat
24,179,345
26',022,752
43.0% 43.0
Other
2,623,190
413,684 6%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1964
DATE
LBJ
Goldwater
Undecided
July 10
76
20
4
August 23
65
29
6
September 16
65
29
6
September 27
68
32
October 18
64
29
7
November 2
61
32
7
Actual Vote:
Republican
27, 178, 188
38.5 %
Democrat
43, 129, 566
61.1 %
Other
336,838
4%
1968
DATE
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinior
June 29-July 3
35
40
16
9
July 19-21
40
38
16
6
August (pre Convention)
45
29
18
8
V
September 3-7
43
31
19
7
September 20-22
43
28
21
S
September 27-30
44
29
20
7
October 3-12
43
31
20
6
October 17 .
44
36
15
5
October 31
42
40
14
4
Actual Vote:
Republican
31,785,480
43.470
Democrat
31,274,166
42.77
Amer. Ind.
9,906,473
13.570
Other
244,756
470
1968
SEPTEMBER 3-7
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinion
NATIONAL
43
31
19
7
SEX
Male
43
27
24
6
Female
44
34
14
8
24
RACE
White
46
27
20
7
Non-white
EDUCATION
College
56
26
10
8
High School
41
29
22
8
Grade School
36
39
18
7
OCCUPATION
Professional & Bus.
53
24
16
7
White Collar
51
29
13
7
Farmers
45
15
29
11
Manual Worker
35
35
22
8
AGE
21-29
43
33
18
6
30-49
42
31
19
8
50-
45
30
19
6
RELIGION
Protestant
47
25
22
6
Catholic
37
41
12
10
POLITICS
Republican
89
3
7
1
Democrats
10
63
17
10
Independents
39
20
33
8
REGION
East
45
35
8
12
Midwest
50
29
16
5
South
29
26
39
6
West
51
33
10
6
INCOME
$10,000 +
55
25
14
6
$7,000+
47
29
18
6
$5,000-6, 999
45
29
18
8
$3-4,999
34
33
21
12
Under $3,000
36
39
20
5
COMMUNITY SIZE
1 million
46
35
9
10
500,000 +
44
36
11
9
50,000 - 499,999
43
37
13
7
2,500-49,9 999
44
27
24
5
Under 2,500
42
22
29
7
Gallup Trial Heats
1972
Nixon
McGovern No Opinion
July 30
56
37
7
July 14-17
56
37
7
June 16-19
53
37
10
May 26-29
53
34
11
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
NotSure
April 28-May 5(last one) 1972)46
30
16
8
March 24-7 , 1972
46
36
14
4
February, 1972
43
42
10
5
January 7-10, 1972
43
W
42
12
3
November 19-22, 1971
44
41
10
5
October 8-11
43
35
13
9
August 20-23, 1971
42
36
11
11
May 7 -10
39
41
12
8
March 12-14
43
39
12
6
January, 9-10, 197.1
44
44
9
3
December 5-6, 1970
44
43
9
4
June 19-22
43
36
13
8
January 30-Feb 2, 1970
47
35
13
5
September 12-15, 1969
49
34
11
6
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1972
DATE
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Not Sure
July 14 -- 17
46
33
18
4
June 16 - 19
V
45
32
18
5
May 26 - 29
43
30
19
8
April 28 - May 1
43
35
15
7
February
49
34
11
6
November 1971
49
33
12
6
Gallup Trial Heats
Nixon
HIH
Wallace
Not Sure
June 16-19 (last one)
47
28
18
7
May 26-29
43
26
22
9
April 28 May 1
45
34
15
6
March 24-7
46
35
15
4
February
46
39
10
5
November 1971
47
37
12
4
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
DATE
Nixon
Kennedy
Wallace
Not Sure
April 15-16 (most recent)
46
36
12
6
February 1972
47
39
9
5
November 1971
44
41
10
5
11
August 1971
43
38
10
9
May 1971
42
41
10
7
March 1971
46
38
11
5
January 1971
47
38
9
6
December 1970
47
37
11
5
January 1970
49
35
11
5
September 1969
53
31
10
6
July 1969
52
36
9
3
April 1969
52
33
10
7
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, AUGUST 27, 1972
44% See Him as 'Very' or 'Fairly' Liberal
McGOVERN VIEWED AS 'LEFT OF CENTER'
BY INCREASING NUMBER OF VOTERS
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N.J., Aug. 26 -- Sen. George McGovern is viewed as "left of center"
in his political philosophy by an increasing number of voters, a factor which
helps explain why McGovern thus far has been unable to close the gap on
President Nixon in the presidential race. Nixon currently holds a commanding
57-31 per cent lead over McGovern.
In the latest nationwide survey, nearly half of all voters interviewed,
44 per cent, view McGovern as "very liberal" or "fairly liberal" in his politi-
cal philosophy. The comparable figure for the April survey is 33 per cent.
The proportion who describe the Democratic nominee as "very liberal"
has nearly doubled since April -- from 12 per cent to 22 per cent.
McGovern has thus moved still farther to the left of where the typi-
cal voter places himself. In the latest survey, 24 per cent of voters des-
cribe themselves as "very liberal" or "fairly liberal." Many more, 41 per
cent, classify themselves as "very conservative" or "fairly conservative,"
while another 30 per cent select the term "middle of the road."
In contrast, Nixon is viewed as much closer in political philosophy
to where the typical voter places himself. In addition, Nixon's image in
this respect has changed very little since the April survey.
The detailed tables follow:
page 2
How Voters View
Them-
Nixon
selves
McGovern
%
olo
do
As Conservative
52
41
11
Middle of Road
25
30
22
Liberal
11
24
44
No opinion
12
5
23
100%
100%
100%
How Voters View Nixon-The Trend
April, '72
Latest
olo
%
As Conservative
51
52
Middle of Road
24
25
Liberal
15
11
No opinion
10-
12
100%
100%
How Voters View McGovern-The Trend
April, '72
Latest
oto
olo
As Conservative
18
11
Middle of Road
15
22
Liberal
33
44
No opinion
34
23
100%
100%
How Voters View Themselves-The Trend
April, '72
Latest
olo
op
As Conservative
37
41
Middle of Road
33
30
Liberal
26
24
No opinion
4
5
100%
100%
Details
of Survey
A total of 1465 adults were interviewed in person in the survey, which
was conducted in more than 300 scientifically selected localities across the
nation during the period August 5-12. Survey respondents were asked the follow-
ing question about the presidential candidates and about themselves:
How would you describe (yourself/name of candidate)-- very
conservative, fairly conservative, middle-of-the-road, fairly
liberal, or very liberal?
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, Aug. 18, 1972
72 Campaign Theme of Republicans
GOP Registers Major Gains Since '71
On Issues of 'Peace' and 'Prosperity'
By George Gallup
WHICH PARTY BEST TO KEEP U.S. OUT OF WORLD WAR III?
Copyright, 1972,
%
%
Party More Likely to
Field Enterprises, Inc.
Now, however, the GOP has a lead
Keep Country Out of WW III?
50
50
7
among business and professional peo-
No
No
prosperity issues was reflected in trial
ple. Opinion is about evenly split
Rep. Dem. Dif. Opin.
PRINCETON, N. J., Aug. 17 On
REPUBLICAN
40
40
heats taken during the late spring and
among persons in clerical work and
%
:
&
ic
the key issues of "peace" and "pros-
early summer. These test elections
sales, while the Democratic party wins
LATEST
37
26
25
12
perity" - the Republican party's cen-
30
30
showed leading Democratic contenders
handily on the prosperity issue among
Aug., 1971 28
28
32
12
tral campaign theme this year - the
doing as well or better than the Presi-
manual workers.
Aug., 1968 41
23
19
17
GOP has registered major gains with
dent.
20
the nation's voters compared to one year
20
Similar Picture
This question asked since 1952 was
Found in Aug., '68
ago.
Good Political
next put to respondents:
10
10
Today's findings compare closely
In the latest survey, voters by the
DEMOCRATIC
Barometer
with those recorded in August of the
Looking abead for the next few
ratio of 37 to 26 per cent say the Re-
"Peace" and "prosperity" have been
o
0
last presidential election year of 1968.
years, which political part) - the
publican party is more likely than the
40
'51
52
53
54
55
"56
57
'58
59
60
61
R
63
64
65
66
67
68
'69
70
71
72
"bread and butter" issues in most elec-
Republican or the Democratic - do
Democratic party to keep the United
tion campaigns. This is demonstrat-
The GOP at that time had a 41 to
The Republican party has registered major gains as the party voters
you think will do the better job of
States out of another world war. One
think is more likely to keep the U.S. out of a third world war. One year age
ed by the fact that the party with the
23 per cent lead on the "peace" issue
keeping the country prosperous?
fourth of those interviewed (25 per
lead on both these issues at election
and was tied with the Democratic
the two parties ran even on this issue. The Republicans had led in all previ-
Here are the latest results. those re-
cent) see no difference between the two
time has seen its candidate elected.
party, 36 to 36 per cent, on the issue
ous measurements since 1966. The issue was dominated by the Democratic
of prosperity,
corded a year ago, and the findings in
parties in this respect, while 12 per
party between 1962 and 1966, but prior to that it was a Republican issue.
Young Favor Democrats
August, 1968:
cent do not express an opinion.
On Issue of 'Peace'
An October measurement showed the
WHICH PARTY BEST TO KEEP U.S. PROSPEROUS?
Party Be-t to Keep
One year ago -- in August, 1971
On the peace issue, the current weight
Democrats had made gains on both
%
%
the two parties scored equally on the
issues. In regard to the issue of peace,
Country Presperous?
of opinion in most groups is that the
No
No
issue of peace. with 28 per cent nam-
GOP would be more likely to keep the
the Republicans led 37 to 24 per cent,
while the Democrats had gained a mar-
Rep. Dem. Diff. Opin
ing each party. Another 32 per cent
50
50
U.S. out of a third world war. With
saw no difference in the ability of the
DEMOCRATIC
gmal 37 to 34 per cent lead over the
;
&
:-
&
young persons under 30 years of age,
TWO parties to maintain peace. while 12
however. opinion is 4-to-3 that the Dem-
GOP on prosperity.
LATEST
35
38
16
II
40
40
per cent did not express an opinion.
ocratic party could do 2 better job in
The latest survey reselts are based on
Aug., 1971 23
46
21
IO
this respect.
in-person interviews with persons 18
Aug, 1968 36
36
15
13
GOP Closing Gap on
30
30
Fewer men than women think that
and older in more than 500 scientifically
'Prosperity' Issue
REPUBLICAN
the Republican party is better in terms
selected communities across the nation
Coming Sunday!
The Republican party has made
20
20
of keeping peace. Opinion is about
during the period August 17. This
equally dramatic gains over last year
evenly divided among women, whereas
question was asked. as it has been peri-
Latest Trial Heat
in terms of the party perceived as bet-
Results
10
to
it is 2-to-1 on the GOP side among
odically over the last two decades:
ter able to keep the country prosperous.
men.
Which politic al party do you think
What has been the net effect of
While the Democratic party current-
o
O
Businessmen Credit GOP
would be more birth to keep the
the Eagleton affair on the relative
Iv holds 2 marginal :8 to 35 per cent
52
53
54
'55
56
57
58
59
60
'61
'62
63
'64
65
'66
'67
'68
69
70
71
'72
On "Prosperity" Issue
United States and of will War III
standings of Nixon and McGov.
lead over the GOP in this respect. one
The Democratic party holds . marginal lead over the GOP as better
On the issue of prosperity. the sharp
- the Republican party or the Demo.
ern?
year ago the Democratic party led by
able to keep the country prosperous. One year ago, the Democratic party
shift since 1971 is evidenced by the fact
cratic party?
What are the early effects of in-
the ratio of 2-10-1. 4" to 21 per cent
held a 2-to-1 lead, the widest margin enjoyed by the Democrats in five and
that. in last year's survey. the weight of
Here are the latest results, those re-
cluding Sargent Shriver on the
The GOP's relatively weaker show-
one-half years. The Democratic party has held the advantage on this ques.
opinion in all occupation groups was
corded one year ago, and the findings
ticket?
ing at that time on both the peace and
tion with few exceptions during the two decades that measurements have
that the Democratic party was better
III August, 1968:
been taken.
able to keep the nation prosperous.
The Gallup Poll
Nixon, 57% - McGovern, 31%
McGovern Loses
(
By George Gallup
2. The increase in Nixon's lead is
Copyright, 1972,
a result of a decline in preference for
Field Enterprises, Inc.
McGovern without an equivalent in-
Men
crease in Nixon's strength.
Women
The table below shows the trial heat
Under 30
results from the three surveys:
30-49 years
Mc- Other/
50 and olde
PRINCETON, N. J., Aug. 19 - Rich-
Nixon
Govern
D.K.
ard Nixon holds a commanding 57
%
%
%
College
Before Eagleton
High school
to 3I per cent lead over George
Grade schoo
McGovern in the latest Gallup survey,
Disclosures
56
37
7
conducted beginning the weekend that
After Eagleton
Protestant
Sargent Shriver was named by Mc-
Disclosure, but
Catholic
Govern as his choice to replace Thomas
Before
Eagleton as the Democrats' vice presi-
Resignation
57
32
II
East
dential candidate.
After Eagleton
Midwest
Resignation, and
A special Newsweek survey conduct-
South
Subsequent
ed by the Gallup Organization after
West
Selection of
Eagleton's disclosure concerning his
Shriver
57
3I
I2
medical history, but before his resigna-
Prof. and Bu
Net change
+I
-6
+5
tion, shows similar results, with Nixon
Manual
leading 57 per cent to 32 per cent.
The table shows that the defect-
ing McGovern supporters have not
Republicans
This represents a decline in Mc-
switched to Nixon but rather have
Democrats
Govern's strength from a survey con-
moved into the "don't know" category.
Independent
ducted immediately after the Demo-
McGovern has registered a loss of six
cratic convention. At that time, Nixon
In contra
percentage points and the undecided
held a 56 per cent to 37 per cent lead
vote has increased by five percentage
most key gro
over his Democratic rival.
points, while Nixon has recorded no
support amd
math of the
gain over the three surveys. This basic
McGovern t.
Notice to Newspapers:
pattern, which shows little or no move-
ment in the Nixon standing, is evident
lics by I9 per
As a bonus to subscribing news-
among all major population groups.
following tl
papers, the results of a special
the gap has
Gallup conducted survey for "News-
The table below shows the trend in
centage poir
week" appear in this release - one
McGovern's vote for the three surveys
vey.
day prior to publication in "News-
among various groups in the popula-
tion. McGovern suffered losses in virt-
This par
week" magazine.
Democratic
ually every population group during
Catholics m
the Eagleton controversy -- with the
Charting the trend in voter prefer-
cussions con
decline occuring after Eagleton's dis-
ment after
ence during this critical period reveals
closure, but prior to his resignation.
mental healt
two significant effects of the Eagleton
The McGovern Vote
incident:
phasis was
Post
News-
Aug.
of selecting
I. The decline in McGovern's
Conv.
Week
4-6
such as E
strength came after Eagleton's an-
%
%
%
Muskie, K
nouncement but before his resignation.
NATIONAL
37
32
31
Shriver.
For Release: Sunday, Aug. 20, 1972
round Against Nixon
34
29
30
39
35
32
The most recent findings show Nixon
49
43
48
leading McGovern in most major
35
25
28
groups, including two that have tradi-
White
62
26
32
26
I2
33
tionally voted Democratic in national
Non-white
13
71
I6
elections - manual workers and Catho-
35
30
32
35
33
29
lics - even though the President's lead
$15,000 & over
62
30
8
42
33
34
among Catholics has declined over the
$10,000-$14,999
64
26
IO
past six weeks.
$5,000-$9,999
52
30
I8
33
24
23
McGovern scores higher than Nixon
Under $5,000
49
38
I3
37
39
42
in the most recent trial heat among
Comparison of the current trial heat
blacks, and among persons under 30
figures with Gallup findings from the
37
32
33
years of age.
five previous presidential elections,
35
36
33
36
The table below shows the most re-
shows that considering Nixon's com-
25
29
4I
38
cent trial heat results among key popu-
manding lead, nationwide, his support
28
lation groups.
is relatively low among such traditional-
ly Republican groups, as professional
35
29
28
Latest Trial Heat' Results
and business people, the college educ-
39
33
35
Mc-
No
ated, and persons in upper income
Nixon
Govern
Opin.
households. Conversely, McGovern's
2
4
3
%
%
%
61
trial heat performance among the bet-
52
55
NATIONAL
57
3I
I2
ter educated, more affluent segments of
30
25
25
Men
57
30
13
the population is relatively high.
his decline among
Women
57
32
II
Nixon owes his wide lead in the
IcGovern has gained
tholics in the after-
Under 30
41
48
II
trial heats, nationwide, to major de-
on affair. Although
30-49 years
61
28
II
fections among two traditionally Demo-
Nixon among Catho-
50 and older
60
26
I4
cratic strongholds ========== manual workers,
and to a lesser extent, Catholics.
ge points immediately
College
59
32
9
mocratic convention,
High school
58
29
13
narrowed to 6 per-
Grade school
50
I6
Details of Survey
34
the most recent sur-
The latest trial heat is based
Protestant
63
23
14
Catholic
on in-person interviews with a total
48
42
IO
turn to traditional
of 1039 registered voters out of a
g behavior among
East
5I
33
I6
total sample of 1465 adults inter-
2
reaction to the dis-
Midwest
56
33
II
viewed August 5-12 in more than
on
Eagleton's replace-
South
59
29
I2
300 localities across the nation.
isclosures about his
West
66
28
6
This question was asked:
that time, great em-
Prof. and Bus
64
28
8
If the presidential election were
on the desirability
Manual
49
35
I6
being held today, which candidate
tholic running mate,
would you vote for - McGovern,
Kennedy, Edmund
Republicans
92
3
5
the Democrat or Nixon, the Re-
White, or Sargent
Democrats
33
55
I2
publican?
Independents
58
25
I7
Gallep
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
August 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies today disclosed several inter-
esting matters:
1)
The Gallup release for Sunday, August 6, is attached;
2) Gallup is interviewing August 4-6. Trial Heats are
gathere
included and the results are scheduled to be released
Sunday, August 13. From now to November 7, Gallup will do
bi-weekly trial heats;
3) McGovern is losing one in three Democrats. "It's
the largest defection away from a party's candidate in
twenty-five years", in Davies memory. Davies says
McGovern will get some of them back. McGovern is caught
with a two-edged sword, however, because "a sizeable
proportion of the Democrats that support McGovern disagree
with his position on amnesty". When McGovern's position
becomes clear it may cost him more Democratic votes;
4) Gallup will do a series of issue polls testing
McGovern's proposals, such as the income redistribution,
amnesty, and abortion views beginning in the middle of
September;
5) Contrary to what George Gallup, Jr. said, Gallup
will conduct Presidential popularity questions. Davies
said the results will not be released. He will try to
give us the results;
6) Gallup will begin releasing union/non-union demo-
graphics on the questions.
- 2 -
Davies noted that the Gallup organization had issued a
directive to all employees not to release any advance
information. Davies balked and will try to continue to
give me advance information. He urged strictest confi-
dentiality and noted that Gallup stopped giving advance
information to President Johnson "because he just became,
if you' 11 excuse the expression and lack of courtesy,
downright ridiculous about it".
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, August 6, 1972
At This Early Stage of Campaign
McGovern's Standing in Trial Heat Lags
Behind His Party's Lead on Top Issues
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
=
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON N. J., Aug. 5 - The
pattern of voter concerns is striking-
Der ocratic party currently holds a mar-
ly different from that recorded
that lead over the GOP. 53 to 47 per
exactly four years ago. In July, 1968,
cent as the party voters believe can
the GOP held the edge 52 to 48 per
better handle the problem they con-
cent as the party voters thought could
The problem named next most often
sider to be most important.
better deal with the problem of great-
at that time, by 29 per cent, was crime
Confidence in the Democratic party $
est importance.
and lawlessness (including riots and
When the views of those who said
ability to cope with the problems voters
In a mid-August survey in 1968, the
looting). Race relations were named
"по difference' and those who express-
Details
team most important may seem incon-
GOP lead had stretched to 56 to 44
the biggest problem by the third great-
ed no opinion are divided equally be
est number of voters (13 per cent),
Of Survey
sistent with *Le fact that Senator Mc-
per cent. The margin narrowed to 53
tween the two parties. the results are
Gream. the nomine. trails
followed by the high cost of living (9
The latest findings are based on in.
as follows:
to 47 per cent just before the election,
President Nixon by 19 points in the
per cent).
person interviews with 1527 adults in-
anticipating the close division of the
trial heat Survey evidence in
terviewed in more than 300 scientifically
July. 1972 July 168
vote.
The following tables show the top
selected localities across the nation dur-
To
THE 915 presidential election years
four problems named today, compared
ing the period July 14-16.
Democratic
53
48
over that. at this early
Vietnam, Inflation
Post in the campaign. many voters
with the top four in 1968:
Republican
47
52
Now Top Problems
This question was asked first: "What
may be adopting a "wait-and-see" at-
The Vietnam war and economic prob-
July. 1972
do you think is the most important
100%
100%
titude recarding McGovern's stance on
tems are running about even as the
Vietnam war
25%
problem facing this country today?"
key issues This is perhaps the prin-
top concern of the American people
High cost of living
23
All persons who named a problem
The importance of the Gallup issue
reason why one Democrat in
Crime/lawlessness
TO
barometer as it reflects the division of
at this time. Twenty-five per cent
were then asked: "Which political party
creatly withholds support
name the war and 23 per cent name
Drug use and abuse
9
do YOU think can do a better joh of
the vote in presidential elections 25 secu
C. M.Coven.
the high cost of living.
Others named
37
handling the problem YOU have just
not only in 1968. but in the two previous
No opinion
2
Sensitive Barometer
mentioned - the Republican party or
presidential elections.
Selected by the next greatest number
or Voting Behavior
of voters in the latest survey are crime/
106%*
the Democratic party?"
The Democrats had a 63-37 per cent
Te question as to which of the two
lawlessness (10 per cent) and drug
Following are the results of the lat-
advantage in this measurement in Octo
Total exceeds 100 per cent since some
may parties can better deal with that
persons named more than one problem.
est survey, compared with those record-
ber, 1964 This division of oproon
use and abuse (9 per cent).
was reflected in the presidential vote
problem uppermost in the mind of the
Together these four problems are
ed in July, 1968:
are 24 provided a sensitive barometer
July, 1968
the following month when Pit ident
named by almost two thirds of all
f votre behavior. particularly in sur-
Vietnam war
52%
Party Best Handle
Lyndon Juhnson defeared Sen. Barry
voters as the most important facing
vers twice shortly before an election.
Crime/lawlessness
29
Top Problems?
Goldwater by a 61.39 per cent margan.
the nation today.
Race relations
13
July, 1972 July, 1968
In the fall of 1900. the Democratic
Contrast
Twice as Many Named
High cost of living
9
%
%
party had a narrow. 52.48 per cent.
With '68
Vietnam in 1968
Others named
II
Democratic
34
27
lead over the Republicans in terms of
Although Nixon's lead over his Dem-
In contrast, at a comparable point in
No opinion
I
Republican
28
31
the party better able to deal with the
peratic rival today is closely compar-
the 1968 campaign, the Vietnam war
No difference/
top problem. This close division of
able to bis lead over Sen. Hubert Hum-
was named by 52 per cent of voters -
115%
No opinion
38
42
opinion anticipated the results of the
phrey in July. 1968 if the Wallace
twice the proportion who name the
Total exceeds 100 per cent since some
1960 election, one of the closest in
vote is taken into account - the present
war today.
persons named more than one problem.
100%
100%
history.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- August 9, 1972
D - Sorry we haven't been able to touch base.
G - No problems, that happens. First the good news. I sent off
all your materials yesterday.
D - Oh, terrific.
G - It's quite a volume. There's a briefcase full of stuff plus some
rolled things.
D - Oh, that's just magnificent.
G - So - but that's everything that was done during the primaries.
D - Fabulous.
G - And we'll of course be producing stuff for release around the
time of the Convention for the general election and I'll send you
a package of that for you.
D - Absolutely great.
G - But this is éverything.
D - Very fine.
G - All right?
D - Well, I haven't got much to report to you because the survey is
just now about to mature and I think we only have about 275 ballots
in the office now.
G - Uh-Oh.
D - And we're up against a big problem because we certainly wanted to
get something out for Sunday and it's going to mean that we're not.
So we're going with the registration analysis for Sunday and we're
going to have to hold the new data until probably next Thursday
and Sunday.
- 2 -
G - I see.
D - Trial heat will probably be reported on Thursday.
G - OK.
D - I'll have information on that - well just to be safe, why don't
you call me Friday.
G - OK.
D - And if not Friday, definitely I'll have it by mid-morning Monday.
G - OK.
D - I have to have it one way or the other.
G - OK.
D - Did you see the latest Harris
...
G - Yes, indeed.
D - It's quite interesting.
G - 23.
D - Quite interesting. I guess the Eagleton incident really put a
stopper on McGovern for a moment.
G - well, I guess SO. Very, very tough.
D - You know the trend in these things of course is for the underdog
to start moving up a bit and it's hard for me to believe that
McGovern's position could get any worse. It's probably at this
stage of the game with the exception of Barry Goldwater it's
probably the widest margin that any incumbent has held over a
contender in Presidential history. At least in terms of polling
history, anyway.
G - Yes. It's amazing.
D - There must be some sighs of relief down there anyway, right?
G - Yes - but people are getting nervous about complacency problems,
you know.
- 3 -
D - That could be a big one.
G - Everybody is looking under the bushes to make sure everyone is
working. The release on Sunday will have a registration analysis?
D - Yes, right. The voting preferences of those not registered.
G - That will be interesting, sort of like the youth one you did in July.
D - This will cover most groups.
G - I see.
D - What it shows in a nutshell is that for a registration drive to be
successful obviously it must be selective. Here is where the
Republicans can bolster their forces and where the Democrats can
bolster theirs.
G - Sure. Which survey is that based on?
D - That's based on the last three - combined.
G - I see. Where does it say we should target our registration?
D - Gordon I'll tell you, I've been working on sort of a management
problem here and I haven't had a chance to look at it. George, Jr.
is handling that today.
G - Understand. OK. I've got sort of a procedural question that maybe
you can help me on.
D - All right.
G - We're needless to say interested in Gallups trend back to January
on 2-ways against just McGovern. All the released information of
course, which we have and also of course from our Gallup Opinion
Index. Now we wonder if the demographic information is available
from those 2-way McGovern surveys even if it didn't appear in Gallup
- 4 -
Opinion Index.
D - I'm sure it's available. Yes, I can get that for you. Why don't
I have one of our girls put that together and send it down to you
today.
G - Gee, that's fantastic. We'd like of course the surveys I guess
you have -- there are only about four -- that have McGovern on a
2-way with full demographics.
D - We'll have it.
G - Will you? . From January through -- gee, that would great.
D - I'll have sent "Special Delivery" today.
G - I'd appreciate it very much.
D - OK, Gordon.
G - Keep in touch.
D - Take care, sir.
G - Thanks, John.
D - Bye, bye.
G - Bye.
1952 GALLUP POLLING RESULTS
DATE
EISENHOWER
KEFAUVER
UNDECIDED
June 10
55
35
10
*
*
*
**
*
*
*
DATE
EISENHOWER
STEVENSON
UNDECIDED
August 9
45
43
12
September 4
51
43
6
September 20
51
42
7
October 9
45
38
17
Election
55.4
44.6
The Gallup Poll
Registration Among Blacks Up Sharply
Democrats Have
S
Registration Ga
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
as possible among registered voters,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
since Democratic turnout in presidential
elections has been traditionally lower
than that of Republicans.
One factor
tion among y
PRINCETON, N. J., Aug. I2 - As
Drive Among Blacks
Supreme Cou
the McGovern forces begin their major
Paying Dividends
overturned a
registration drive, Democrats can take
An important factor in the success
quirement. T
encouragement from the fact that, for
of the Democrats in their registration
unconstitution
the first time since the mid-thirties
efforts since the beginning of the year
vote simply b
when Gallup registration measurements
is the sharp increase in registration
in a place f
were first undertaken, as high a per-
among non-whites, particularly those
time. This,
centage of Democrats as Republicans
living in the South. For the first time
of state cour
are registered to vote.
in polling history, as high a propor-
enfranchise al
tion of non-whites as whites say they
to eight milli
In the latest Gallup Poll registration
are registered. While the national
the reasons v
audit, based on in-person interviews
figure for all adults has increased
have register
with 4,149 adults, I8 and older, during
only four points since the study earlier
has been thei
the months of June, July and August,
this year - from 71 per cent to 75 per
dence.
80 per cent of both Democrats and
cent - the figure for non-whites na-
Republicans say they are registered to
tionwide has increased 8 percentage
Registration
vote in the forthcoming presidential
election.
points - from 66 per cent to 74 per
Deadlines
cent. The most dramatic increase in
Twenty-sev
A comparable study, conducted dur-
registration is recorded among non-
stration deadi
ing the first three months of the cur-
whites in the South.
9, including
rent year, found Republicans leading
as New Yorl
in the registration battle, 80 per cent
Registration Also Up
ois, Ohio, P
to 72 per cent. At approximately this
Among Young Adults
Massachusett
time in the last presidential year, 1968,
Registration has increased more
stantial part
Republicans led Democrats 84 per cent
sharply among young adults, under 30
must therefor
to 76 per cent.
years of age, than among adults 30
next two moi
and older. This trend is also encourag-
Significance
The strate
ing from McGovern's standpoint since
For Democrats
likely will be
the youth vote is considered to be the
in the next
The significance of the current fig-
core vote by the McGovern forces and
cincts which
ures for the Democrats lies in the fact
the major focus of their get-out-the-
cratic in pr
that Republicans in the past have count-
vote drive.
Particular att
ed on higher registration among their
In the early 1972 survey data, a total
those precinc
ranks to help offset the GOP's minority
of 47 per cent of young adults indicated
of non-white
status.
they were registered to vote. In the
whites, group
The task of Democratic strategists
latest survey, the percentage has risen
scores best a
now will be to get as high a turnout
to 54 per cent.
recent trial h
For Release: Sunday, Aug. 13, 1972
cceeded in Closing
on Republicans
increased registra-
people may be the
Religion
1g in March which
The following table shows the regi-
Protestants
70
75
ts
essee residence re
stration levels in groups which
Catholics
73
77
+4
ng states that it is
normally vote Democratic, as well as
deny anyone the
Occupation
those which tend to lean toward the
he has not resided
Prof. & Business 77
80
+3
GOP in presidential elections. The
inimum length of
Clerical & Sales
72
77
+s
early 1972 results (based on three sur-
ed with a number
Skilled workers
66
68
+2
veys, Jan.-March, combined) are com-
gs, could serve to
Unskilled
pared with the latest results (based on
ional estimated five
workers
62
7°
+8
three surveys, June-August, combined) :
ng adults. One of
Race
few young citizens
Per Cent Registered
Whites
71
75
+4
voted in the past
Point
Non-whites
66
74
+8
ent change of resi-
Early 1972
Latest
Change
Northern whites 73
76
+3
%
%
Southern whites 67
72
+5
NATIONAL
71
75
+4
This question was asked: Is your
Sex
name now recorded in the voter regi-
es have final regi-
Men
72
76
+4
stration book in the election precinct
or before October
Women
1
70
74
+4
or election district where you now live?
ey, populous states
Educational Background
.S, California, Illin-
For the early 1972 results, a total of
College
76
80
+4
ania, New Jersey,
4,567 persons, I8 years of age and old-
High school
69
73
+4
Michigan. A sub-
er, were interviewed during the period
Grade school
7°
75
+5
registration effort
January-March. For the latest results,
ompleted within the
Age
a total of 4,149 persons, I8 and older,
18-29 years
47
54
+7
were interviewed during the period
30-49 years
75
80
+5
June-August. Gallup registration data
e McGovern forces
50 and over
84
85
+1
based on the survey question above,
ke an all-out effort
eeks in those pre-
Political Affiliation
have been found in previous years to
be much the same as Census Bureau
Republicans
80
bted heavily Demo-
80
-
Democrats
national elections.
72
80
+8
figures based on survey data obtained
will likely be given
Independents
63
66
+3
in their Current Population Survey.
For example, Gallup survey data on the
a high proportion
Region
per cent registered among those of
and lower-income
East
75
78
+3
voting age in November, 1968, was
g whom McGovern
Midwest
74
76
+2
within one percentage point of the
Nixon in the most
South
66
72
+6
Census estimate based on their regular
West
67
72
+s
sample surveys.
F
1952-
Gallup
Interve Dates Rese Date
Results
206 Steven no,
may30-Je4 Je 10 55 key 10
ag 9 7/25-30 ag9 4543 12
8/23-28 Sep 4 51 43 6
4/6- 11
Sep 20 51 427
9/28-10/3 Oct 4 45 38 17
1956
206 Steven
7/12-17
Jy 31
61
37/2
8/23-28
sep 8
52 41 7
9/20-25
Oct 9 52408
10/7-12 Oct 26 55 45X
10/18-23 - Funal 59.5/40.5
IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS
The next Gallup Poll report will be sent you
for release Sunday, August 13.
Results of new nationwide surveys are now being
tabulated and reports to be sent you shortly will
.
show the effect of the Eagleton crisis on the
presidential race.
The new surveys will also provide the most com-
plete information yet obtained on the issues
affecting the decision of voters.
The Gallup Poll will maintain between now and
the November elections its coverage of the issues,
the candidates, and the vote by key population
groups.
-- THE GALLUP POLL
8/8/72
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
August 4, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies today disclosed several inter-
esting matters:
1) The Gallup release for Sunday, August 6, is attached,
2) Gallup is interviewing August 4-6. Trial Heats are
included and the results are scheduled to be released
Sunday, August 13. From now to November 7, Gallup will do
bi-weekly trial heaks:
3) McGovern is losing one in three Democrats. "It's
the largest defection away from a party's candidate in
twenty-five years", in Davies memory. Davies says
HcCovern will get some of them back. McCovern is caught
with a two-edged sword, however, because "a sizeable
proportion of the Democrats that support McGovern disagree
with his position on annesty". When McGovern's position
becomes clear it may cost him more Democratic votos;
4) Gallup will do a series of issue polls testing
McGovern's proposals, such as the income redistribution,
amnesty, and abortion views beginning in the middle of
September:
5) Contrary to what George Gallup, Jr. said, Gallup
will conduct Presidential popularity questions. Davies
said the results will not be released. No will try to
give us the results;
6) Callup will begin releasing union/non-union dero-
graphics on the questions.
-2 - -
Davies noted that the Gallup organization had issued a
directive to all employees not to release any advance
information. Davies balked and will try to continue to
give me advance information. Ce urged strictest confi-
dentiality and noted that Gallup stopped giving advance
information to President Johnson "because he just became,
if you'll excuse the expression and lack of courtesy,
downright ridiculous about it".
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- Friday, August 4, 1972
G - Hi, John, how are you?
D - Long time no hear.
G - Yeah, how was your vacation?
D - Oh, it was very good, but it was a little difficult getting back
after a month and 5 days.
G - I can imagine.
D - I got back later than I thought, so I'm now getting back into the
swing of things.
G - Sorry we missed each other last week, I guess. Kind of interesting -
some of the results. That happens.
D - Oh boy.
G - What's up these days?
D - Well, a survey went out, let's see what's day is today, a survey
want out Wednesday.
G - So that would be August 2nd, huh?
D - Right. Interviewing would be this weekend, tonight through Sunday
night. And probably the first results of that will be published
on the 13th which I would guess would be the trial heat again.
There were a lot of things on that particular ballot that would
be of interest to you. There were - we posed about 15 or so issues
to respondents and asked them the degree of importance and then also
which of the two candidates - Nixon and McGovern - they thought
could better handle the problems and why. So, I think we're going
to have a great deal of very good information for you - I'd say
within a week or two.
- 2 -
G - Gee, that's great.
D - There's one thing I have to tell you. There's been a directive today,
as I feared would happen, from the company here about receiving
information. I don't know how to handle this, they didn't say, nobody
said don't, you know, get out advance information, but I do think
that you ought to be now extremely careful with how you use it.
In other words, even if you and perhaps if it's possible the President
are the only ones that realize that there is advance information
coming.
G - Yes.
D - Not that we care that much because very often we give information
to the Democratic National Committee also.
G - Sure.
D - But ---
G - No, I understand.
D - I hate to see the doors closed.
G - No, I understand.
D - We had to do that with Johnson finally because he just became,
if you'll excuse the expression and the lack of courtesy, he became
just downright ridiculous about it.
G - Well, that's why when we talked that day one of my assignments
was to emphasize to you the extreme closeness with which it's kept.
D - Right.
G - No one else should call or cause you any problems about it.
D - And by all means, by all means, call for me.
G - I will. OK.
- 3 -
D - Because I don't think you'll get much information otherwise.
G - No and that'll be great because it will be between the two of us
and we haven't had a problem before and I'm sure we won't.
D - That's the reason I balked. I said, Now look these guys have been
very cautious about this stuff and there hasn't been one leak and
so, they don't agree with me, but at any rate -- onward.
G - Onward we go. What's going to come out this Sunday?
D - An issue index - which party voters think can handle the key
problems facing the nation. It's pretty much of a tossup.
Democrats are given a slight edge partywise.
G - Sure, cause there's twice as many of them.
D - Right and also it's really a reflection of Congressional strength
rather than Presidential, I think.
G - Is that going to be the tone of the story?
D - Well the tone of the story is that the Democrats hold the marginal
lead over the Republicans on issues but McGovern's personal strength
lags far behind his party's, you know,
G - Oh, I see.
D - Which indicates a couple of things. One, that McGovern has to make
his position better known on the issues obviously; and two, there
are many Democrats, one in three infact, that now say they are now
going to vote for Nixon.
G - Jesus, and will that be in Sunday?
D - No, that was in last week's.
G - Yeah.
- 4 -
D - It was sort of hidden in there, but it's there.
G - Yeah.
D - In fact, it's the largest defection away from a party's candidate,
I recall, in twenty-five years.
G - Jesus. Do you think he'll be able to get them back?
D - Uh - I don't know. It's hard to say. He will most certainly he'll
get some of it back. The pattern of course for many, particularly
intellectual Democrats and Democrats that are Democrats but lean
sort of Independent, you know, is to withhold support for a new
face until he becomes better known and his ideas and positions
and so on are crystallized. But I think, just between us, the
way McGovern's positions are running on issues now, it just might
work the opposite direction. First of all, we find a sizeable
proportion of the Democrats that support McGovern disagree with
his position on amnesty, for example. And, of course, McGovern's
position on amnesty isn't clear.
G - Right.
D - However, if it should become clear, who knows what this could do.
G - Yeah.
D - And how about the upper income Democrats who will shutter to find
out that anyone over $15,000 a year or $20,000 a year will be
specially taxed to pay for a new welfare program. These things
haven't all come out yet, but I don't know how it will work but
he certainly won't gain Republican supporters with a position like
that. You have to either solidify what you didn't have among
- 5 -
the Democrats or lose more and I have a feeling it will be the
latter.
G - Are you going to do a series of issue polls similar to the ones
you did after the Democratic Convention?
D - Yes.
G - So these points will sort of be brought out.
D - Oh, absolutely.
G - The income proposals and so forth.
D - Right.
G - Will you schedule those through September --
D - Probably through the middle of September, right.
G -
That's great. OK.
D - As soon as everything is a little bit more concrete. Still a
little vague right now.
G - Yeah, understand. So then we'll get results back some time next
week on that 4-6 interview.
D - Right.
G - This Sunday will be issues. Will one issue be headlined -- the
war or the economy?
D - Well, the war and the economy rank one and two very close together
in fact as the key issues. And it's quite a change from this time
in 1968 when Vietnem was named about 3 to 1 over any other issue.
The war has lost a lot of its emotional punch anyway.
G - Interesting. Will that point be mentioned?
D - Well, I think it's just clear. We try not to assume why these
things may be because we don't really know either.
- 6 -
G - Yeah, yeah. OK, you're going to do monthly or bi-weekly trial
heats between now and November.
D - Probably bi-weekly.
G - Bi-weekly and no more approval, right?
D - Well, we may slip one in every once in a while, just to see
what happens, to see how it's looking. I mean, we may do it just
for our own benefit and we may not report it.
G - Without releasing it. I understand.
D - That helps us try to figure out either a decline or increase in
a candidate's standing. For example, if Nixon should go down
in the next month, let's say 5 points against McGovern, we'd like
to know whether it was more a plus for McGovern or whether it's
a minus for Nixon. Has the President done something that the
people don't go along with or is McGovern just coming up in the
eyes of the public? You can get that information too.
G - Oh good. Because we keep this, you might imagine, trend information.
D - Oh yeah. By all means.
G - Did you ask any questions about the President's meeting with
or Japanese trade relations or
D - No, I don't believe SO really.
G - Oh, there's a lot of concern you know about how unhappy the Japanese
were on the China trip.
D - That's the kind of thing though that doesn't filter down really to
the general public.
- 7 -
G - Really?
D - The huge don't know. About 40% of the people don't have any idea.
G - Are you going to start releasing labor demographics?
D - Yes, yes absolutely.
G - Yeah, that's fascinates us as you might well imagine.
D - By all means.
G - Indicates some interesting
...
D - Gordon, are you getting a hold of any campaign materials?
G - I'm keeping everything for you. I kid you not.
161
Xerar to Strachen
F
GALLUP POLL
NEW ORLEANS (AP) A SURVEY SHOWS VOTERS BELIEVE THE VIETNAM
Galleys
WAR AND INFLATION STAND ABOUT EQUALLY AS THE TOP PROBLEMS
FACING THE NATION, DR. GEORGE GALLUP TOLD STATE LEGISLATORS
FROM THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
"NEXT MOST OFTEN NAMED ARE CRIME AND DRUG ABUSE,' THE POLLSTER
SAID HIS MARKET RESEARCH ORGANIZATION HAD DISCOVERED.
HE SPOKE TO THE NATIONAL LEGISLATIVE CONFERENCE.
"TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE IN 1968 AS TODAY SAID THE NATION'S
TOP PROBLEM IS THE WAR. CRIME WAS NUMBER TWO ON THE 1968 LIST
AND INFLATION WAS PRETTY FAR DOWN THE LIST," HE SAID.
HE SAID IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY
HIS DATA SHOWS IT WOULD LIKELY BE A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR
PRESISENT NIXON "OF THE DIMENSIONS OF THE SWEEPING EISENHOWER
AND JOHNSON VICTORIES."
HE SAID HIS POLL SHOWED THAT AT PRESENT NIXON LEADS SEN.
GEORGE MCGOVERN, D-S.D. BY 19 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
GALLUP SAID, HOWEVER, "WHILE MCGOVERN CURRENTLY TRAILS NIXON
BY A WIDE MARGIN--AS HUMPHREY DID IN 1968--HE CAN TAKE ENCOURAGEMENT
FROM THE FACT, AS 36 YEARS OF POLLING HISTORY HAVE SHOWN,
THE WIDE LEAD OF A FRONT-RUNNER EARLY IN A CAMPAIGN TYPICALLY
EVAPORATES."
SAYING HE WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN SURVEYS, GALLUP SAID HE HAD
NO LATER INFORMATION ON THE IMPACT OF SEN. THOMAS EALGETON'S
DEPARTURE AS THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE.
CM708PED AUG 3
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, August 6, 1972
At This Early Stage of Campaign
McGovern's Standing in Trial Heat Lags
Behind His Party's Lead on Top Issues
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON N. J., Aug. , - The
pattern of voter concerns is striking
Democratic party currently holds a mar-
ly different from that recorded
ginal lead over the GOP. 53 to 47 per
exactly four years ago, In July, 1968,
cent. as the party voters believe can
the GOP held the edge 52 to 48 per
better handle the problem they con-
cent as the party voters thought could
sider to be most important.
The problem named next most often
better deal with the problem of great-
at that time, by 29 per cent, was crime
Confidence in the Demos ratic party $
est importance.
and lawlessness (including riots and
When the views of those who said
ability to cope with the problems voters
In a mid-August survey in 1968, the
looting). Race relations were named
"no difference" and those who express-
Details
deem most important may seem incon-
GOP lead had stretched to 56 to 44
the biggest problem by the third great-
ed no opinion are divided equally be
sistent with the fact that Senator Mc-
est number of voters (13 per cent).
Of Survey
per cent. The margin narrowed to 53
tween the two parties. the results are
Govern. the Democratic nominee, trails
followed by the high cost of living (9
The latest findings are based on in
to 47 per cent just before the election,
as follows:
President Nixon by 19 points in the
per cent).
person interviews with 1527 adults in-
anticipating the close division of the
July. 1972 July, 1968
larest trial heat Survey evidence in
terviewed in more than 300 scientifically
vote.
previous presidential election years
The following tables show the top
selected localities across the nation dur-
%
%
four problems named today, compared
ing the period July 14-16.
Democratic
53
48
subjects however. that. at this early
Vietnam, Inflation
prom in the campaign. many voters
with the top four in 1968:
Republican
47
52
Now Top Problems
This question was asked first: "What
may be adopting a "wait-and-see" at-
The Vietnam war and economic prob-
July, 1972
do you think is the most important
100
100';
chade regarding McGovern's stance on
lems are running about even as the
Vietnam war
25%
problem facing this country today?"
key issues. This is perhaps the prin-
top concern of the American people
High cost of living
23
All persons who named a problem
The importance of the Gallup issue
ofal reason why one Democrat in
at this time. Twenty-five per cent
Crime/lawlessness
TO
barometer as it reflects the division of
were then asked: "Which political party
every Phace currently withholds support
name the war and 23 per cent name
Drug use and abuse
9
the vote in presidential elections is seen
from M. Govern.
Others named
do you think can do a better job of
the high cost of living.
37
bandling the problem YOU have just
not only in 1968. but in the two previous
No opinion
2
Sensitive Barometer
mentioned - the Republican party or
presidential elections.
Selected by the next greatest number
Of Voting Behavior
of voters in the latest survey are crime/
the Democratic party?"
The Democrats had a 63-37 per cent
106%*
Tie question as to which of the two
lawlessness (10 per cent) and drug
Total exceeds 100 per rent since some
Following are the results of the lat-
advantage in this measurement in Octo-
parties can better deal with that
persons named more than one problem.
est survey, compared with those record-
her. 1964. This division of optnon
use and abose (1) per cent)
was reflected in the presidential vote
PM blam uppermost in the mind of the
Together these four problems are
ed in July, 1968:
soter as provided a sensitive barometer
July, 1968
the following month when President
named by almost two thirds of all
of voting behavior, particularly in sur-
Vietnam war
52%
Party Best Handle
Lyndon Johnson defeated Sen. barry
voters as the most important facing
seys taken shortly before an election.
Crime/lawlessness
29
Top Problems?
Goldwater by a 61.39 per cent margin.
the nation today.
Race relations
13
July,
1972
July,
1968
In the fall of 1960, the Democratic
Contrast
Twice as Many Named
High cost of living
9
%
%
party had a narrow. 52.48 per cent.
With 68
Vietnam in 1968
Others named
II
Democratic
34
27
lead over the Republicans in terms of
Neron's lead over his Dem-
In contrast, at a comparable point in
No opinion
I
Republican
28
31
the party better able to deal with the
rival today is closely compar-
the 1968 campaign, the Vietnam war
No difference/
top problem. This close division of
able to his lead over Sen. Hubert Hum-
was named by 52 per cent of voters -
115%*
No opinion
38
42
opinion anticipated the results of the
phrey in July. 1968 if the Wallace
twice the proportion who name the
Total exceeds 100 per cent since some
1960 election, one of the closest in
vote is taken into account - the present
war today.
persons named more than one problem.
100%
100%
history.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, August 4, 1972
6 in 10 Oppose Unconditional Amnesty for
Men Who Have Left U.S. to Escape Draft
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
The national results and the findings
by key population groups follow:
PRINCETON N. J., August 3 - Al-
Amnesty would grant full restoration
COLLER a majority of Americans (60
per enc) are opprised to unconditional
of amnesty - the differences are not
I know of one "dj" (disc jockey) who
of civil rights, including the right to
Grant Amnesty
went to Canada and found that draft
vote, for those who violated the federal
Should
No
for men who have left the
great. Seven in ten Republicans (7r
dodgers couldn't get jobs there and
law.
Should
Not
country to avoid the draft. more than
per cent) and six in ten Democrats
(59 per cent) take a hard line on draft
couldn't even find shelter. They have
%
a third of all persons interviewed (36
no families and no life at all - only
The Question
NATIONAL
56
no
4
per cent) thank these men should be
evaders.
fear."
And Results
allowed to return without any penalty
Men
Easterners are the most liberal in
31
66
3
To determine the public's attitudes
ben: imposed.
Women
their views. with only a slight majority
'A Mockery of
40
55
5
about the animesty issue, the Gallup
Among those interviewed who rep-
(55 per cent) saying they oppose am-
Those Who Fought'
Poll asked a representative cross-section
Under 30 yrs.
47
51
2
sever conten poraties of the men who
nesty.
The views held by many of those
of the voting age population: "Do you
30- 49 yrs
32
G5
3
Lave left the country - the :8 to 21
opposed to amnesty is typified by the
think young men who have left the
50 & over
31
of
7
year olds --- opinion is evenly divided
Views of WW II
comment of a 28 year old account-
United States to avoid the draft should
Veterans
or should not be allowed to return to
Republicans
26
71
-
LR. this highly sensitive issue. Among
ant from the west coast: "Letting
Democrats
37
99
older croups however opinion is 2 to
Among those opposed to granting
this country without some form of
4
them return without some penalty
Independents
41
55
4
I in opposition to granting amnesty.
amnesty is a Black machine operator
would be a mockery of those men who
punishment?" A total of 1554 persons
who served in World War II: "When
fought in Vietnam and either died or
were personally interviewed in more
East
43
53
4
Amnesty could be a politically im-
you get the benefits of being a citizen
were maimed."
than 300 scientifically selected sampling
Midwest
34
63
3
porrant issue in this presidential elec-
of a country, you should have to serve
A 40-year old man who works in a
locations across the nation during the
South
33
64
3
ton year The President. who has the
it."
period June 23-26.
West
power to grant alrinesty by provision
motel restaurant is outspoken in his
34
63
$
if the Constitution, is currently op-
Another opposed is a 30-year old
criticism of those who have left the
pased to doing so. However, Sen.
receptionist from Norwich, Conn.:
country: "They're all mentally disabled.
Coming Sunday!
George McGovern. Democratic presi-
"Something should be done to punish
We're better off without them. They
dential nominee, takes a more liberal
them. You can't just break the law
have been offered service in the reserves
stance on the question.
and get away with it. When you run
but they reject it as foolish. America
away from responsibility, you have to
- love it or leave it."
WHAT VOTERS SEE AS THE
Women display more leniency 11th
garding amnesty than do men. although
pay for it."
A 40-year old priest favors amnesty,
NATIONS TOP PROBLEMS
& matority think those who have left
"Takes Courage
offering the brief comment: "They're
the country to avoid the draft should
our children so we should let them
and
To Leave Country'
be eiven some form of penalty.
come home."
In favor of granting amnesty is a
WHICH PARTY THEY THINK CAN
In fact. in all major population
young male office worker from Cali-
Draft Resisters Can
storps --- with the exception of 18 to
fornia: "The war is unnecessary and
BETTER HANDLE THESE
Be Jailed for 5 Years
24 year olds majority opposition is
unjust - people don't believe in the
It is estimated that there are between
PROBLEMS
found to granting amnesty without
war it takes courage to go against
penalty.
it and leave the country."
70,000 and 100,000 U.S. draft dodgers
and deserters, including those in exile
Has the GOP succeeded in
Mile political affiliation IS a factor
Also in favor is a factory worker,
in Canada. If convicted, draft resisters
in the way people vote on the issue
who remarked: "Those young men who
can go to jail for as long as five years
closing the "issue gap?"
Democrats are slightly more in favor
have left the U.S. have suffered enough.
and be fined up to $10,000.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, July 30, 1972
McGovern Holds Slim Lead With Youths
Nixon Leads With Most Groups, But
McGovern Strong With Blacks, Poor
By George Gallup
(2) The President's 2-1 lead over
$7,000-$9,999 62
34
4
McGovern has gained dramatically
Copyright, 1972,
McGovern with Independent voters -
$3,000-$6,999 49
40
II
among non-whites (from a 35-point
a key bloc which now accounts for
Field Enterprises, Inc.
Under $3,000
38
53
9
lead to a 74-point lead) and among
roughly a third of the electorate and
Prof. &
the under $3,000 income group (from
The following table shows the na-
business
a 11-point deficit to 15-point lead).
tional vote of the latest trial heat with
a vital factor in Republican strategy
Labor union
61
considering its "minority" party status.
35
4
Wallace in the race:
families
39
36
22
3
Clerical &
Differences Between McGovern
Three-Way Race:
Non-labor
48
29
19
4
PRINCETON, N. J., July 29 - The
(3) Democratic defections which the
sales
58
37
5
And Humphrey Support in 1968
Nixon vs. McGovern VS. Wallace
latest Gallup post-convention trial
current trial heat reveals is 33 per cent.
Manual
53
39
8
To identify McGovern's sources of
500,000 &
Mc-
Wal-
Un-
heat shows President Nixon leading
Farmers
66
23
II
over
42
to
14
4
The McGovern forces, however, can
strength as compared with Sen. Hubert
Nixon Govern lace
dec.
Democratic nominee, Sen. George Mc-
take solace from the fact that the wide
Humpbrey in the 1968 presidential
50.000-
Labor union
To
%
%
To
Govern. in most major population
lead of a front-runner carly in the cam-
campaign, another trial heat question
499.999
47
29
21
3
families
52
42
6
NATIONAL 46
32
18
4
2,500-49,999 50
28
19
groups. including some that normally
3
paign typically erodes as the campaign
Non-labor
58
35
7
was asked in the current survey which
vote Democratic in presidential elec-
wears on. This is, of course, what hap.
included Wallace's name as a possible
Men
46
28
23
3
Under 2,500
46
27
24
3
tions for example, manual workers,
pened in the last presidential election in
500,000 &
third party candidate.
Women
46
34
16
4
East
50
33
13
4
labor union people and Catholics.
1968, with many Democrats returning
over
52
42
6
Midwest
Whites
53
32
12
3
Senator McGovern. on the other
to the fold in the final days of the cam-
50,000-499,999
60
35
5
The findings reveal that although,
50
25
21
4
South
Non-whites
37
25
37
1
nationwide, McGovern currently scores
11
85
I
3
hand. holds a wide lead over Nixon
paign.
2,500-49,999
59
34
7
West
40
35
17
8
Under 2,500
approximately as well as Humphrey did
among non-whites, and persons in the
The following table shows the na-
58
33
9
College
.1 a comparable point in 1968, basic
Protestants
50
27
20
3
lowest income group. While behind
tional vote in the latest test run without
6
background 54
East
differences are noted in the support for
34
10
2
57
37
Catholics
44
31
20
5
Nixon in the East, Midwest and South
High school 44
Wallace:
Midwest
the two Democratic party candidates by
29
23
4
60
35
5
McGovern runs the President a close
Grade school 40
Republicans 88
South
33
22
5
2
8
2
Two-Way Race:
59
36
5
groups.
race in the Far West.
Democrats 23
50
23
4
Nixon VS. McGovern
West
46
41
13
Under
The most significant difference OC-
Independents 43
29
23
5
McGovern also performs relatively
Mc.
Un-
Protestants
6
30 yrs.
36
47
15
2
61
33
curs among persons under 30 years.
well among the nation's young voters,
Nixon
Govern
dec.
Catholics
Whereas Humphrey ran behind Nixon
30-49 yrs.
45
29
22
4
56
7
Wallace Hurts McGovern
37
i.e., those between 18 and 30, splitting
%
%
%
at this point in 1968, McGovern has
50- & over 51
26
19
4
More than Nixon
their vote almost evenly with Nixon.
NATIONAL
56
37
7
Republicans
94
2
4
Among voters over 30, on the other
Democrats
33
61
reversed this situation, running slightly
$15.000 &
The three-way trial heat, ie., with
6
Men
60
34
6
ahead of the President in the current
over
54
27
15
4
Wallace included. reveal the extent to
hand. Nixon holds almost a 2-to-r lead.
Independents 60
30
TO
Women
54
7
trial heat. Of course, in 1968. 18.20
$10.000
39
which Gov. George Wallace's absence
As of the time of the survey, only
Pre and Post
year olds were not a part of the elec-
$14,999
51
27
20
2
from the presidential race benefits
Whites
61
32
7
two per cent of Republicans defect to
Convention Comparison
torate as they are today.
$7,000-
Nixon
Non whites
IT
85
McGovern, while as many as one in
4
The current trial heat shows very
The South Dakota Senator also per-
$9.999
46
32
20
2
When Wallace voters are asked to
three Democrats defect to Nixon.
College
little overall change from the test con-
forms better in the current test election
$3.000-
choose between Nixon and McGovern
The following factors explain why
background 61
35
4
ducted immediately before the Demo-
among the better educated, that is, per-
$6,999
39
33
22
6
the overall national vote leans heavily
High school
8
cratic convention, with several import-
Under $3,000 28
16
assuming he were not to run the
57
35
48
8
sons with a college background, than
Wallace vote goes about 2-to to
Grade school
to Nixon:
51
42
7
ant exceptions. Nixon has gained among
Catholics (from a four-point lead to a
Humphrey did in 1968.
Prof. &
Nixon This increases the President's
Under 30 yrs.
47
49
4
business
50
32
16
2
margin from 14 per cent to 19 per
(1) Nixon's solid hold on the Re-
15-point lead), among labor union
On the deficit side, McGovern has
30-49 yrs.
58
35
7
cent.
publican vote, including groups which
members (from a four-point deficit to a
less support with Democrats as a group
Clerical &
traditionally favor the Republican
50 & over
60
32
8
10-point lead), and among 18 to 29
- and with two important sub-groups
sales
48
31
17
4
Furthermore. Nixon is the beneficiary
party, such as the better educated, more
$15,000 & over 64
31
5
year olds (from a 15-point deficit to
that normally vote Democratic
Manual
41
33
22
4
of the Wallace vote in every major pop.
affluent segments of the population.
$10,000-$14,999 61
34
5
a deficit of only two points).
Catholics and manual workers.
Farmers
48
13
36
3
ulation group.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Tors
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
July 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with George Gallup, Jr. today disclosed that:
1) On Thursday, July 27 Gallup's Release will show
that the President's choice for Vice President corresponded
with the rank and file Republican view. The polling dates
were July 14-17. Agnew received "approximately 42%" of
the Republicans' vote while Connally received 27%. (In
May, Connally was at 10%, a "phenomenal rise" according to
Gallup. Reagan receives 13% and the rest of the field is
"far below that' .);
2) This Sunday, July 29, Gallup "may" run a special
report on the labor union vote. Several surveys will be
consolidated. Mr. Gallup would not give me any preliminary
conclusions;
3) John Davies, a much more responsive contact at Gallup,
will return from vacation on August 1, so hopefully the
information will be more easily obtainable;
4) George Gallup, Jr. did not talk with Don Rumsfeld
last week to give him the trial heat figures early.
Colson is complaining that you and the President were dis-
cussing the Gallup trial heat figures and that he had not
been clued in, prior to the cruise on the Sequoia last
Thursday, July 20.
That's god damn too bad-
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
July 24, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
R. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
CORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with George Gallup, Jr. today disclosed that:
1) On Thursday, July 27 Gallup's Release will show
that the President's choice for Vice President corresponded
with the rank and file Republican view. The polling dates
were July 14-17. Agnew received "approximately 420" of
the Republicans' vote while Connally received 27%. (In
May, Connally was at 10%, a "phenomenal rise" according to
Callup. Reagan receives 13% and the rest of the field is
"far below that".);
2) This Sunday, July 29, Gallup "may" run a special
report on the labor union vote. Several surveys will be
consolidated. Mr. Gallup would not give me any preliminary
conclusions;
3) John Davies, a much more responsive contact at Gallup,
will return from vacation on August 1, so hopefully the
information will be more easily obtainable,
4) George Gallup, Jr. did not talk with Don Runsfeld
last week to give him the trial heat figures early.
Collson is complaining that you and the President were dis-
cussing the Gallup trial heat figures and that he had not
been clued in.
GS/jb
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thursday, July 27, 1972
Nixon's Choice of Agnew Also
Top Choice of Republican Voters
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
This question was asked:
This question was also asked:
Field Enterprises, Inc.
Which of the persons on this list
Suppose the choice were between
would you like to see as the Republi-
Agnew and Connally - which man
can candidate for Vice President in
would you prefer?
1972?
Choices of GOP Voters
Following are the results of the lat-
Agnew
54%
est (mid-July) survey, compared with
Connally
42
those recorded in mid-April:
Undecided
4
PRINCETON, N. J., July 26 - Presi-
Choices of Republicans
100%
dent Nixon's choice of President
Latest
April
Spiro Agnew as his running-mate on
Choices of Independents
%
%
the 1972 ticket coincides with the views
Connally
52%
Spiro Agnew
42
of the nation's Republican voters, as
43
Agnew
40
John Connally
27
8
determined by a survey completed prior
Undecided
8
to the President's recent announcement.
Ronald Reagan
13
20
-
Nelson Rockefeller
6
14
100%
Agnew, however, has far from uni-
Others on list
8
versal support among the rank-and-file
I2
Survey results reported today are
of the party. When Republican voters
Undecided
4
3
based on in-person interviews with
are asked to select their preference
1532 adults, 18 and older, in a survey
from a list of eight men, only about
100%
100%
conducted in more than 300 scientifical-
four in ten choose Agnew, Even on
ly selected localities across the nation
a two-way basis - when pitted against
during the period July 14-17.
former Treasury Secretary John Con-
nally Agnew wins only a bare ma-
jority.
Runner-up in the latest preferences
is Connaily, with 27 per cent of the
vote. Connally's political stock with
GOP voters has grown dramatically
during the last two or three months. The
April survey found only eight per cent
of Republicans preferring him. His
showing in the latest survey is parti-
cularly impressive in view of the fact
Top Choice of GOP
that he has held high public office as
a Democrat.
Voters for Number Two Spot
California Governor Ronald Reagan
is in third place in the current survey,
with I3 per cent of the vote - down
from his earlier showing in April. when
he ran second with 20 per cent.
Support for New York Governor
Nelson Rockefeller has also declined
between surveys. Rockefeller is in fourth
place in the latest survey. with SIX per
cent of the vote. In April he won I1
per cent of the support of the Republi-
can voters for the Vice Presidency.
Showdown Test
To see how the vote would divide
between just Agnew and Connally. a
"showdown" test was included in the
latest survey. It shows Agnew again
winning among Republicans. 54 per
cent to 12 per cent for Connaily, with
four per cent undecided
Connally. however, emerges ahead
of Agnew among voters who classify
themselves as Independents. a group
important to the GOP in VICW of its
min pty status MI A' cricin politics.
He 15 the choice of 52 per cent of In-
SPIRO T. AGNEW
dependents to 40 per cent for Agnew
and eight per cent undecided
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH GEORGE GALLUP, JR. - July 24, 1972
S - Mr. Gallup?
G - Yes?
S - Gordon Strachan. How are you?
G - Fine. Sorry I missed your call last week. I took a long weekend.
S - I understand. Did you get a chance to talk with Don Rumsfeld?
G - I haven't, no.
S - Oh
...
G - I didn't know he called me, I'm embarrassed to say.
S - I'm not sure that he had. I mentioned it quickly and I wasn't
sure whether he had called you or not.
G - I guess not. I'm sure I'd know about it.
S - OK. Anything of interest coming up?
G - Not -- to be quite frank -- no, not at the moment. Now we have
a story on the selection of the Vice Presidential candidate -
Vice President Agnew - and it's a little late on it, but we thought
it might be still of some interest. The President's choice is
the public's choice, at least the rank and file.
S - I see.
G - It's all very interesting, too, after the fact that Connally had
been moving up in popularity tremendously fast. But it's all
academic.
S - Do you figure to run the story?
G - I think we will. I think it's still interesting to know how -
it's still very pertinent now still - to find out how much support
there was for Vice President Agnew.
- 2 -
S - When is the survey going to run, do you know?
G - Yah, this Thursday.
S - May I have a quick recap of the results? Do you have a moment
to do that?
G - Yes indeed. Just a sec.
S - Thank you.
G - I have the figures, but I don't have the finals.
S - I understand.
G - But this shows that Vice President Agnew gets 42% of the support
of Republicans it will probably be around that figure but we
have to check again. Connally comes in at .27% or so, SO he moved
up very fast since April and the rest of the vote is divided among
the other five on the list, so it doesn't
...
S - That's 27% of the Republicans?
G - Republicans, right.
S - I see. Any body else up there?
G - Not really that high. Reagan get 13%. And the rest it's virtually
nothing for the rest.
S - OK. When do you think you'll go into the field again?
G - Well, we have this is the most recent survey coming in now and
we have one going out in about, I think it's two weeks. I don't
have the schedule in front of me, but I think it's about two weeks.
S - OK.
G - We hope to do a full analysis of the labor union vote based on
several sets SO that we can build up a sample base big enough to
look at it by various groups.
- 3 -
S - I see and you'll use that most recent poll, the one with Agnew
and Connally on it?
G - No, not in that same particular survey. We'll take the latest
figures and look at them and combine them with all the earlier
ones. Just several of them.
S - Now this Agnew-Connally. Is that when you were in the field
in July, 14-17?
G - That's right.
S - 14 to 17. And those are the trial heats that were run on Sunday,
I guess. OK. Anything else we might be interested in?
G - Ummm. Not at the moment really. Our planming hasn't really
gone beyond the two that I just mentioned.
S - OK. That labor one will be what Sunday?
G - Probably Sunday. But again, this is tentative because we don't
know what it's going to show. It really is very tentative.
S - OK.
G - We're still analyzing it, and haven't gone very far with it yet.
S - OK. Why I sure appreciate this information.
G - You're welcome indeed.
S - So I guess John Davies will be back on Wednesday?
G - I think Wednesday. That's right.
S - I'll check with him and see how we're coming on that labor one
because we're very interested in that.
G - Good, good.
S - In light of the developments of late.
- 4 -
G - Yes.
S - Well thank you very much.
G - Yes, indeed.
S - Well, thank you very much and good talking with you, sir.
G - Nice to talk to you.
S - Right, bye.
G - Bye.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday or Monday, July 23-24, 1972
Nixon as Popular as McGovern With Unregistered Group
Democrats' Registration Drive for "New
Voters' Could Prove Counterproductive
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
Govern holds a wide lead over Nixon,
attended college and those who have
South
51
Non-college
56
with 57 per cent saying they would
not.
Non-south
55
vote for McGovern today as opposed
Although the unregistered prefer
Men
59
to 41 per cent who would vote for
Nixon to McGovern marginally, the
Whites
54
Women
(12
Nixon.
PRINCETON. N J.. July 22 The
college-educated among this group vote
Non-whites
57
Democratic party's current drive to reg-
However, in the target group - the
for McGovern by a four to three ratio.
South
57
14"er the "new voters" 18 to 24
non-registered - the vote is about
These figures would suggest that the
Republicans
58
Non-south
03
years old may prove counterpro-
evenly split, with 46 per cent for Nixon
Democratic party's strategy for register-
Democrats
60
ductive. The latest Gallup Poll find-
and 43 per cent for McGovern. This is
ing new voters should be directed to
Independents
49
Whites
61
ings show that this effort may, in fact,
shown below:
benefit President Richard Nixon as
the college campuses.
Non-whites
Mc-
Un-
much as the Democratic party's stand-
Nixon Govern dec.
Analysis of the entire group of voters
ard-bearer. Senator George Govern,
%
%
%
under 30 -- and by the 25 to 29 year
New Voters:
Republicans
59
18-24 Years
Democrats
TOTAL
43
50
7
old age group reveals essentially the
64
by relivering as many potential Nixon
adherent, as McGovern supporters.
Registered
41
57
2
same findings as shown for those 18 to
Per Cent Registered
Independents
no
Non-registered
46
24, with minor variations.
TOTAL
43
II
50%
The Democrats have been worl ing
Not enough cases 10 provide reliah.
evertime to register 18 to 2 j-year olds
2. That registered new voters prefer
College
66
data.
for two reasons: First. this population
McGovern can be explained largely
Current Registration
Non-college
4r
group contains the largest percentage
by the fact that the registered group
Results by Groups
of eligible voters who are still unreg-
contains twice as many college persons
The tables below show the percentage
Men
51
istered Half of the 18 to 24-year olds
as the non-registered group. As shown
registered by key groups among a) all
Women
48
are currently unregistered. as compared
in the table below, those with some
eligible voters under 30, b) new voters
to only three in ten in other important
college training are almost twice as
18 to 24-year olds and c) persons in
South
46
population groups
likely to vote in the trial heats for
the 25 to 29-year old group.
Non-south
51
McGovern as for Nixon. Those with
Secondly, Democratic strategists feel
The findings reveal that women are
that the great majority of the currently
no college background, on the other
as likely to be registered as men, and
Whites
49
unregistered young will translate direct-
hand, prefer Nixon to McGovern by a
that blacks, whose registration typically
Non-whites
ly into votes for McGovern on the as-
slight margin.
has been relatively low, are as likely to
Today's analysis is based on in-
sumption that he has across-the-board-
Total: 18-24 Years
be registered as whites.
Republicans
57
person interviews with 1553 re-
support among this group.
Mc-
Un-
Democrats
57
spondents 18 to 29-years old. out
Nixon Govern dec.
Independents
42
of a total sample of (154 persons.
To determine the possible effect the
Under 30 Years
18 and older. Interviewing was
Directors registration drive would
%
%
%
Per Cent Registered
35
61
4
Not enough cases to provide reliable
conducted between late April and
have on the presidential race. the reg-
College
TOTAL
54%
istration figures were analyzed by presi-
Non-college
48
data.
late June. The question asked:
44
8
25-29 Years
Is your name now records. / in in
dential preferences. as determined by
3. The importance of educational at-
College
67
Per Cent Registered
registration book of the precinct
trial heats. This brings to light several
tainment on the new voter registra-
Non-college
47
TOTAL
or election district where you nou
key findings:
tion figures is further pointed up by
61%
live?
I. Among the 50 per cent of young
examining the trial heat results for the
Men
54
adults who are already registered, Mc-
non-registered by those who have
Women
54
College
69
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, July 21, 1972
Nixon Holds Wide Lead With or Without Wallace
McGovern Starts Campaign Trailing
Nixon by Same Margin as HHH in '68
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc
Impact of
PRINCETON, N. J., July 20 - Sen.
almost succeeded is. overtaking Nixon
Wallace
1956 election. Throughout two months
George McGovern 1972 Democratic
by the time of the election.
of intense campaigning by both Eisen-
Since many political observers do
nominee, starts his presidential cam-
not expect Wallace to run again this
The 1948 presidential contest is an-
hower and Stevenson, there was virtual-
paign trailing President Nison by about
other example. GOP candidate Thom-
ly no change in the electorate's division
year, the latest trial heats also matched
the same margin that Sen. Hubert Hum-
as E. Dewey had a clear-cut lead over
of sentiment.
only Nixon and McGovern.
phrey mailed Nixon following the
President Harry Truman at the start
Then in the closing days of the cain-
Democratic convention in 1968.
This two-way test shows Nixon
of the campaign in 1948. But the
paign, the Hungarian revolution and
in a survey con fucted immediately
widening his lead with Wallace not in
election was of course won by Truman
the Suez crisis caused a sharp upswing
following the Miami convention, Sen-
the race from 14 points to 19 points,
who captured 49.9 per cent of the pop-
in the vote for the Eisenhower-Nixon
afor McGovern is found to trail Pres-
with Wallace supporters choosing Nix-
ular vote to 45.3 per cent for Dewey,
ticket. An estimated three to four
on over McGovern by about a 2-to-1
Details of Survey
ident Richard Nixon by 14 ercentage
with the balance going to Henry Wal-
million votes swung to the GOP ticket
ratio.
points, 42 to th per cent. with 18 per
lace and J. Strom Thurmond.
in the last 10 days of the campaign.
The latest trial heats are based
LCHE going to Gov. George Wallace, a
Senator McGovern has registered no
poss ble third party candidate
'Return-to-the Fold'
Following is a comparison of the
on in-person interviews with a total
immediate gains over his pre-conven-
latest results with those recorded in a
of 1149 registered were DEC of +
tion standing. Similarly, Senator Hum-
Factor Seen Operating
By way of comparison, a three-way
survey taken in late June, prior to the
total sample of more than 1300
trial heat taken following the Demo-
phrey in 1968 did not get a significant
Careful analysis of the trends in na-
Democratic convention:
adults interviewed July 14.17 10
boost from the 1968 convention and
tional elections since 1936 shows that
more than 300 localities across the
cratic convention in 1968 showed Hum-
improved his vote only marginally, as
what might be termed a "return-to-the-
Three-Way Race:
phrcy trailing Nixon by 12 percentage
nation. These questions were
determined by Gallup Poll trial heats
fold" factor operates in most elections.
Nixon VS. McGovern VS. Wallace
asked:
points, 31 to 43 per cent, with Wallace
at the time.
This refers to the rendency of Demo-
Mc-
Wal-
Un-
winning 19 per cent of the vote at that
crats or Republicans to cross party lines
Nixon Govern lace dec.
Supore the presidential election
time.
Gap Can Close
in their preferences early in a campaign
%
%
%
%
were being held TODAY. 11
Dramatically
****** or to temporaraily join the ranks of
Post-con-
Richard Nixon REFE the Republic
can candidate and George Me
While McGovern currently trails
the undecided and then return to the
vention
46
32
18
4
Getern u ere the Democrate CAN-
Nixon by a wide margin as Home
party fold in the final weeks of the
Pre-con-
phrey did in 1968 he can take en-
campaign.
vention
18
didate, and George Wallace
45
32
5
again as a third party candidate.
couragement from the fact that, as 36
Issues Also Can
Two-Way Race:
which would you like to see um?
years of polling. history have shown,
Nixon VS. McGovern
the wide lead of a front-runner early
Bring Sharp Change
and
Mr.
Un-
in a campaign typically evaporates.
Events can also abruptly change the
Nixon
Govern
dec.
fortunes of candidates in a presidential
Suppose Walling is NOT in
The race in 1068 is. of course, a per-
Post-
race, which candidate would 100
election campaign.
fect example. Humphrey started slow.
convention 56
37
7
prefer Nixon OF George Mr.
ly following the convention that year,
One of the most dramatic instances
Pre-
Govern?
but gained momentum in October and
of the impact of events came in the
convention 53
37
10
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 18, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM :
GORDON STRACHAN
The most recent Gallup Opinion Index is attached. Davies. at
Gallup, thought you might be interested in the comparison of
the Democrats platform and the rank and file views. You have
seen some of the Gallup referendum material on page 6 - 9
which'shows only Democratic views.
The selection of the Vice President candidate should be made
by the voters (63%) instead of the current process (31%) accord-
ing to a pre-Eagleton poll (Apr 28 - May 1) reported on page 10.
Gallup asked "In your opinion, which is most responsible for
inflation - government, business or labor? 11 On page 11 the
demographics are reported which show that 39% blame the
Government, 20% blame Business, and 29% blame Labor, while
14% had no opinion on the polling dates Apr 21 - 24, 1972. Bob
Teeter's Wave II asked a similar question - "Do you think business.
labor unions, the President, Congress or the consumer is most
responsible for rising prices and inflation? 11 The results were:
Bus Uns P Cong Consum
T - Jun 16-26
26
37
8
9
17
(National)
The Nixon-McGovern demographic material on page 4 will be
included in the Gallup materials mentioned in (3) above.
The usual Demographic Comparison of the President's popularity
is included.
Pre-Convention Issue
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
The Public's 'Image' of the Candidates
Which Candidate Runs Best
Against Nixon?
Analysis of McGovern's Sharp
Rise in Popularity
The Public's Choice in a 'Showdown'
Between McGovern, HHH
NEXT MONTH: "The Mood of the Nation" - Results
of a Gallup Poll Public Opinion Referendum
June, 1972
Report No. 84
GALLUP POLL ACCURACY RECORD
1936 to 1970
- Winning Candidate, Party and Percentage of Vote -
Final
Error on Winning
Year
Gallup Survey
Election Result
Candidate, Party
1970
Dem. Party
53.0%
Dem. Party
54.3%
1.3%
1968
Nixon
43.0
Nixon
43.5
0.5
1966
Dem. Party
52.5
Dem. Party
51.5
1.0
1964
Johnson
64.0
Johnson
61.3
2.7
1962
Dem. Party
55.5
Dem. Party
52.7
2.8
1960
Kennedy
51.0
Kennedy
50.1
0.9
1958
Dem. Party
57.0
Dem. Party
56.5
0.5
1956
Eisenhower
59.5
Eisenhower
57.8
1.7
1954
Dem. Party
51.5
Dem. Party
52.7
1.2
1952
Eisenhower
51.0
Eisenhower
55.4
4.4
1950
Dem. Party
51.0
Dem. Party
50.3
0.7
1948
Dewey
49.5
Truman
49.9
5.4
1946
Rep. Party
58.0
Rep. Party
54.3
3.7
1944
Roosevelt
51.5
Roosevelt
53.3
1.8
1942
Dem. Party
52.0
Dem. Party
48.0
4.0
1940
Roosevelt
52.0
Roosevelt
55.0
3.0
1938
Dem. Party
54.0
Dem. Party
50.8
3.2
1936
Roosevelt
55.7
Roosevelt
62.5
6.8
Average Deviation for 18
National Elections
2.5 percentage points
Average Deviation for 11
National Elections
Since 1948
1.6 percentage points
Average Deviation for 7
National Elections
1936 through 1948
4.0 percentage points
GALLUP OPINION INDEX
June, 1972
Report No. 84
The Gallup Opinion Index
53 Bank Street
Princeton, New Jersey
609-924-9600
GALLUP POLL ACCURACY RECORD
1936 to 1970
- Winning Candidate, Party and Percentage of Vote -
Final
Error on Winning
Year
Gallup Survey
Election Result
Candidate, Party
1970
Dem. Party
53.0%
Dem. Party
54.3%
1.3%
1968
Nixon
43.0
Nixon
43.5
0.5
1966
Dem. Party
52.5
Dem. Party
51.5
1.0
1964
Johnson
64.0
Johnson
61.3
2.7
1962
Dem. Party
55.5
Dem. Party
52.7
2.8
1960
Kennedy
51.0
Kennedy
50.1
0.9
1958
Dem. Party
57.0
Dem. Party
56.5
0.5
1956
Eisenhower
59.5
Eisenhower
57.8
1.7
1954
Dem. Party
51.5
Dem. Party
52.7
1.2
1952
Eisenhower
51.0
Eisenhower
55.4
4.4
1950
Dem. Party
51.0
Dem. Party
50.3
0.7
1948
Dewey
49.5
Truman
49.9
5.4
1946
Rep. Party
58.0
Rep. Party
54.3
3.7
1944
Roosevelt
51.5
Roosevelt
53.3
1.8
1942
Dem. Party
52.0
Dem. Party
48.0
4.0
1940
Roosevelt
52.0
Roosevelt
55.0
3.0
1938
Dem. Party
54.0
Dem. Party
50.8
3.2
1936
Roosevelt
55.7
Roosevelt
62.5
6.8
Average Deviation for 18
National Elections
2.5 percentage points
Average Deviation for 11
National Elections
Since 1948
1.6 percentage points
Average Deviation for 7
National Elections
1936 through 1948
4.0 percentage points
NOTE TO READER
The Sample: The sampling procedure of the Gallup Poll is designed
to produce samples which are representative of the U.S. civilian adult
population. National survey results are based on interviews with a
minimum of 1,500 adults.
Sampling Tolerances: In interpreting survey results, it should be
borne in mind that all sample surveys are subject to sampling error,
that is, the extent to which the results may differ from what would
be obtained if the whole population had been interviewed. Samples
of 1,500 have a tolerance within 3 to 4 percentage points 95 per cent
of the time.
Certain population groups are not reported separately for many sur-
veys because the number of persons in the sample is not enough to
provide sufficiently accurate results. An "x" has been used in the
Gallup Opinion Index to designate such groups. Also, it is impor-
tant to note that the figures for Negroes and 18-20 year olds are sub-
ject to wide sampling fluctuation because of their small sample bases.
Survey Dates: The dates used in this report are the dates when the
results were published in Gallup Poll client newspapers. Interviewing
field dates are generally 2 or 3 weeks prior to publication dates. For
some topics - those where the factor of time is unimportant -- inter-
viewing dates are often more than 2 or 3 weeks prior to publication.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Nixon's Popularity
1-3
Nixon's Handling of Vietnam
4
Nixon-McGovern-Wallace 'Test Election'
5
Nixon-McGovern 'Test Election'
6
Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace 'Test Election'
7
Nixon-Humphrey 'Test Election'
8
McGovern's Rise in Popularity
9 - 11
McGovern-Humphrey 'Showdown'
12
Public's Image of Democratic Candidates
13 24
Firearm Registration
25
Composition of the Sample
26
Design of the Sample/Sample Tolerances
27 28
1
- Following Moscow Summit -
Nixon's Popularity With Voters
At Highest Point in Two Years
A nationwide survey conducted at the close of President Nix-
on's historic summit meetings with Soviet Party leader Leonid Brezhnev
shows Nixon's popularity at its highest point in nearly two years.
A solid majority of 61 per cent of U.S. citizens say they ap-
prove of the way Nixon is handling his duties as Chief Executive. The pre-
vious measurement, taken in late March, showed 53 per cent expressing
approval.
By way of contrast, the President's visit to China gave him
only a modest - and short-lived - boost in popularity. A popularity check
taken before the President's trip to China showed 53 per cent expressing
approval. Following his trip, his approval rating increased slightly to 56 per
cent in a subsequent survey.
The last time the President's popularity rating was as high as it
is today was in July, 1970, when 61 per cent also expressed approval of the
President's performance in office. That rating reflected favorable reaction to
moves by the Nixon Administration to scale down the war and withdraw
troops, as well as to efforts to deal with the problem of inflation.
The President's popularity boost following the summit meetings
in Moscow is reminiscent of his sharp gains in popularity following the fa-
mous "kitchen debate" in the summer of 1959. Nixon, then Vice President,
engaged in a sharp running debate with Russian Premier Nikita Khrushchev
on the opposing systems of capitalism and communism.
The "kitchen debate" did much to establish Nixon as a top
candidate for the GOP presidential nomination in 1960. In a survey taken
before Vice President Nixon's 1959 trip to Russia, Sen. John Kennedy led
Nixon by a 61-39 per cent margin in a Gallup trial heat. A comparable sur-
vey taken after the confrontation with Khrushchev showed the race to be
extremely close, 52 per cent for Kennedy and 48 per cent for Nixon.
As a result of the "kitchen debate," Nixon also further consoli-
dated his lead as the top choice of the nation's Republican voters for their
party's presidential nomination. In fact, in a survey taken after the debate
with Khrushchev, his support from GOP voters reached the highest point
since immediately following the 1956 presidential election.
Following are the details of this survey and the trend:
2
Nixon Popularity Index
- Per Cent Who Approve -
Current
61%
Average in
current year
55%
Average since
taking office
57%
High since taking office
(recorded: Nov. '69)
68%
Low since taking office
(recorded: June '71)
48%
Other Presidents
- Per Cent Who Approve -
President Johnson:
High
Low
Average
80%
35%
54%
*
*
*
*
*
President Kennedy:
High
Low
Average
83%
57%
70%
*
*
*
*
*
President Eisenbower:
High
Low
Average
79%
49%
66%
*
*
*
*
*
President Truman:
High
Low
Average
87%
23%
46%
Question: Do you approve or
disapprove of the way (name of
incumbent) is handling bis job as
President?
ARA
of
3
NIXON'S POPULARITY
Question:
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nixon is handling his job as President?"
MAY 26-29, 1972
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
NIXON'S POPULARITY
%
%
%
SINCE START OF TERM
NATIONAL
61
32
7
SEX
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
%
%
%
Male
63
29
8
LATEST
61
32
7
Female
61
31
8
March 24-27
53
37
10
RACE
March 3-5
56
32
12
White
65
28
7
Feb. 4-7
53
36
11
Non-white
37
51
12
Jan. 7-10
49
39
12
EDUCATION
Dec. 10-13, 1971
49
37
14
Oct. 29 Nov. 1
49
37
14
College
67
29
4
Oct. 8-11
54
35
11
High School
62
30
8
Aug. 27-30
49
38
13
Grade School
56
32
12
Aug. 20-23
51
37
12
OCCUPATION
June 25-28
48
39
13
Prof. & Bus.
69
June 4-7
48
37
15
27
4
White Collar
May 14-16
50
35
15
64
29
7
April 23-25
50
38
12
Farmers
77
19
4
April 3-5
49
38
13
Manual
57
34
9
March 12-14
50
37
13
AGE
Feb. 19-21
51
36
13
18 20 years
60
32
Jan. 9-10
56
33
11
8
21 29 years
Dec. 5-7, 1970
52
34
14
60
33
7
Nov. 14-16
57
30
13
30 49 years
64
29
7
Oct. 9-13
58
27
15
50 & over
61
29
10
Aug. 28-Sept. 1
56
30
14
RELIGION
July 31-Aug. 2
55
32
13
Protestant
66
27
July 10-12
61
28
11
7
June 19-21
55
31
14
Catholic
61
30
9
May 22-25
59
29
12
Jewish
X
X
x
May 1-4
57
31
12
POLITICS
April 17-19
56
31
13
Republican
89
8
3
March 20-22
53
30
17
Democrat
46
42
12
Feb. 28-March 2
56
27
17
Jan. 30-Feb. 2
66
23
11
Independent
63
31
6
Jan. 16-19
63
23
14
REGION
Jan. 2-5
61
22
17
East
62
28
10
Dec. 12-15, 1969
59
23
18
Midwest
57
34
9
Nov. 14-17
68
19
13
South
68
25
Oct. 17-20
56
29
15
7
Oct. 3-9
57
24
19
West
59
35
6
Sept. 19-22
58
23
19
INCOME
Sept. 12-15
60
24
16
$15,000 & over
66
28
6
Aug. 15-18
62
20
18
$10,000 $14,999
65
29
6
July 26-28
65
17
18
$7,000 $9,999
34
July 11-14
58
22
20
60
6
June 20-23
63
16
21
$5,000 $6,999
63
26
11
May 23-26
65
12
23
$3,000 $4,999
58
31
11
May 16-20
65
12
23
Under $3,000
52
35
13
May 2-5
64
14
22
COMMUNITY SIZE
April 11-14
61
11
28
1,000,000 & over
54
March 28-31
63
10
27
37
9
March 14-17
65
9
26
500,000 999,999
60
28
12
Feb. 21-24
61
6
33
50,000 499,999
63
32
5
Jan. 23-29
59
5
36
2,500 49,999
66
25
9
Under 2,500, Rural
64
29
7
4
NIXON'S HANDLING OF VIETNAM
Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is handling the situation in Vietnam?"
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 21-24, 1972
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
53
38
9
48
44
8
SEX
Male
57
34
9
Female
50
42
8
RACE
White
56
36
8
Non-white
29
58
13
EDUCATION
College
57
37
6
High School
53
38
9
Grade School
50
39
11
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
57
35
8
White Collar
53
40
7
Farmers
63
27
10
Manual
51
41
8
AGE
18 20 years
42
53
5
21 29 years
48
44
8
30 49 years
58
33
9
50 & over
55
37
8
RELIGION
Protestant
56
35
9
Catholic
55
37
8
Jewish
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
81
15
4
Democrat
42
49
9
Independent
51
41
8
REGION
East
53
39
8
Midwest
50
41
9
South
57
33
10
West
53
40
7
INCOME
$15,000 & over
58
36
6
$10,000 $14,999
60
33
7
$7,000 $9,999
52
38
10
$5,000 $6,999
57
34
9
$3,000 $4,999
38
52
10
Under $3,000
45
44
11
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
49
45
6
500,000 999,999
53
36
11
50,000 499,999
53
38
9
2,500 49,999
53
38
9
Under 2,500, Rural
57
35
8
5
NIXON-MCGOVERN-WALLACE 'TEST ELECTION'
Question:
"If Richard Nixon were the Republican candidate and George McGovern were the Democratic
candidate and George Wallace ran again as a third party candidate, which would you like to
see win?"
- Based on Registered Voters -
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Undecided
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Undecided
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
43
30
19
8
43
35
15
7
SEX
Male
40
30
24
6
Female
45
30
16
9
RACE
White
44
27
23
6
Non-white
25
52
10
13
EDUCATION
College
50
34
12
4
High School
42
23
22
8
Grade School
34
27
29
10
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
52
31
13
4
White Collar
43
30
19
8
Farmers
40
12
47
1
Manual
34
32
26
8
AGE
18 20 years
44
39
16
1
21 29 years
36
44
15
5
30 49 years
44
24
23
9
50 & over
43
27
23
7
RELIGION
Protestant
46
23
24
7
Catholic
38
36
20
6
Jewish
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
76
7
12
5
Democrat
24
44
23
9
Independent
41
26
27
6
REGION
East
45
34
15
6
Midwest
42
29
19
10
South
36
22
36
6
West
46
32
15
7
INCOME
$15,000 & over
49
30
15
6
$10,000 $14,999
45
26
24
5
$7,000 $9,999
35
35
22
8
$5,000 $6,999
45
25
21
9
$3,000 $4,999
34
32
26
8
Under $3,000
36
31
22
11
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
40
38
15
7
500,000 999,999
46
29
16
9
50,000 499,999
42
36
16
6
2,500 49,999
42
26
25
7
Under 2,500, Rural
42
20
30
8
6
NIXON-MCGOVERN 'TEST ELECTION'
Question:
"Suppose Wallace is not in the race, which candidate would you prefer - Nixon or McGovern?"
- Based on Registered Voters.- -
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
53
34
11
49
39
12
SEX
Male
52
35
10
Female
53
33
14
RACE
White
56
31
13
Non-white
29
56
15
EDUCATION
College
57
36
7
High School
54
32
14
Grade School
45
36
9
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
59
33
8
White Collar
54
32
14
Farmers
71
27
2
Manual
45
38
17
AGE
18 20 years
58
39
3
21 29 years
41
48
10
30 49 years
56
30
14
50 & over
53
31
16
RELIGION
Protestant
60
28
12
Catholic
46
41
13
Jewish
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
85
7
8
Democrat
34
52
14
Independent
42
44
14
REGION
East
53
37
10
Midwest
50
34
16
South
56
30
14
West
54
33
13
INCOME
$15,000 & over
58
33
9
$10,000 $14,999
56
30
14
$7,000 $9,999
44
39
17
$5,000 $6,999
56
30
14
$3,000 $4,999
50
38
12
Under $3,000
47
38
15
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
47
41
12
500,000 999,999
52
35
13
50,000 499,999
50
38
12
2,500 49,999
56
29
15
Under 2,500, Rural
59
27
14
7
NIXON-HUMPHREY-WALLACE 'TEST ELECTION'
Question:
"If Richard Nixon were the Republican candidate and Hubert Humphrey were the Democratic
candidate and George Wallace ran again as a third party candidate, which would you like to
see win?"
- Based on Registered Voters -
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Undecided
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
Undecided
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
43
26
22
9
45
34
15
6
SEX
Male
41
24
28
7
Female
45
28
16
11
RACE
White
46
21
23
10
Non-white
16
66
8
10
EDUCATION
College
56
22
15
7
High School
41
25
23
11
a
Grade School
31
32
26
11
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
56
22
13
9
White Collar
46
23
20
11
Farmers
39
19
39
3
Manual
33
31
26
10
AGE
18 20 years
46
26
16
12
21 29 years
44
28
19
9
30 49 years
43
25
23
9
50 & over
42
26
22
10
RELIGION
Protestant
46
21
24
9
Catholic
40
33
19
8
Jewish
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
82
3
10
5
Democrat
20
46
24
10
Independent
44
15
29
12
REGION
East
45
30
16
9
Midwest
44
27
20
9
South
37
22
32
9
West
47
23
18
12
INCOME
$15,000 & over
53
22
17
8
$10,000 $14,999
46
25
23
6
$7,000 $9,999
39
24
25
12
$5,000 $6,999
41
23
22
14
$3,000 $4,999
30
37
26
7
Under $3,000
37
31
17
15
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
40
33
16
11
500,000 999,999
46
35
13
6
50,000 499,999
44
28
17
11
2,500 49,999
45
21
25
9
Under 2,500, Rural
41
19
30
10
8
NIXON-HUMPHREY 'TEST ELECTION'
Question: "Suppose Wallace is not in the race, which candidate would you prefer - Nixon or Humphrey?"
- Based on Registered Voters -
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
Nixon
Humphrey
Undecided
Nixon
Humphrey
Undecided
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
52
32
16
50
38
12
SEX
Male
52
31
17
Female
52
33
15
RACE
White
56
27
17
Non-white
18
70
12
EDUCATION
College
63
26
11
High School
53
31
16
Grade School
38
41
21
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
63
24
13
White Collar
55
28
17
Farmers
68
27
5
Manual
42
38
20
AGE
18 20 years
57
29
14
21 29 years
54
22
24
30 49 years
53
33
14
50 & over
50
31
19
RELIGION
Protestant
57
28
15
Catholic
47
37
16
Jewish
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
89
4
7
Democrat
29
55
16
Independent
57
20
23
REGION
East
52
35
13
Midwest
49
31
20
South
55
31
14
West
53
28
19
INCOME
$15,000 & over
62
26
12
$10,000 $14,999
55
31
14
$7,000 $9,999
46
31
23
$5,000 $6,999
49
32
19
$3,000 $4,999
46
41
13
Under $3,000
44
36
20
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
47
37
16
500,000 999,999
50
39
11
50,000 499,999
49
32
19
2,500 49,999
59
24
17
Under 2,500, Rural
55
29
16
9
McGovern's Rise in Popularity
Comparable to Willkie's Performance
In the period of just two months, McGovern has achieved a rise
in popularity comparable to the remarkable performance of Republican Wen-
dell Willkie in 1940, who came from nowhere that year to vie with Thomas
Dewey as the top choice of Republican voters for the nomination on the eve
of the convention.
An analysis of the trend in McGovern's support reveals the
following:
1. The party faithful. In early spring McGovern had the support
of only five per cent of Democrats nationwide, as determined by a national
survey in which Democrats were asked to give their top choice from a list of
leading presidential possibilities. In the latest national survey, conducted in
late May, prior to the California primary, he is in a virtual three-way tie with
his leading rivals. He wins the vote of 25 per cent of Democrats to 26 per
cent for Humphrey and 26 per cent for Wallace.
The previous survey showed Humphrey with a wide lead, win-
ning the vote of 35 per cent of Democrats nationwide, to 20 per cent for
McGovern and 18 per cent for Wallace.
2. Independent voters. McGovern has consistently been stronger
among voters who classify themselves as Independents than among Demo-
crats. Even during the early period of the primaries, McGovern ran virtually
even with Humphrey among this group. Following the Massachusetts and
Pennsylvania primaries, however, McGovern recorded a surge of popularity
with Independents - from 18 per cent to 26 per cent.
This sharp upturn for McGovern among Independents occurred
roughly one month after a similar jump among Democrats - from 5 per cent
to 17 per cent following the Wisconsin primary.
3. Better-educated. higher-income voters. McGovern holds an
advantage over Humphrey and Wallace in that, among both Democrats and
Independents, he appeals far more to college-educated and higher income
persons. These groups vote in greater proportions in the primaries and work
harder to get supporters to the polls. Among Democrats and Independents
with a college background, for example, McGovern is preferred over Hum-
phrey by a 3-to-1 margin.
10
When the choices of Democrats and Independents in the latest
survey are combined, McGovern emerges ahead of Humphrey for the first
time. He leads Humphrey by the margin of seven percentage points, 26 per
cent to 19 per cent.
Wallace, however, is ahead of both men, winning the support
of 31 per cent of Democrats and Independents combined.
The following tables show the trend in support for Humphrey,
McGovern and Wallace among Independents and Democrats. Both survey
dates and primary dates are given.
CHOICE OF DEMOCRATS
FOR 1972 NOMINATION
(from a list)
Survey Date:
HHH
McGovern
Wallace
%
%
%
May 26-29
26
25
26
- Ore. Primary: May 23 - -
- Md. Primary: May 16 -
April 28 May 1
35
20
18
- Mass., Pa. Primaries: April 25 -
April 21-24
30
17
19
- Wis. Primary: April 4 -
March 24-27
31
5
17
.....
- III. Primary: March 21 -
- Fla. Primary: March 14- -
- N. H. Primary: March 7-
March 3-6
31
6
15
11
CHOICE OF INDEPENDENTS
FOR 1972 NOMINATION
(from a list)
Survey Date:
HHH
McGovern
Wallace
%
%
%
May 26-29
11
25
36
- Ore. Primary: May 23 -
- Md. Primary: May 16 - -
April 28 May 1
18
26
22
- Mass., Pa. Primaries: April 25 -
April 21-24
18
18
26
- Wis. Primary: April 4 - -
March 24-27
16
15
21
- III. Primary: March 21 -
- Fla. Primary: March 14-
- N.H. Primary: March 7-
March 3-6
11
11
23
12
MCGOVERN -HUMPHREY 'SHOWDOWN'
Question:
"Suppose the choice for President in the Democratic convention this year narrows down to
George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey. Which ONE would you prefer to have the Demo-
cratic convention select?"
MAY 26-29, 1972
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
McGovern
Humphrey
Undecided
McGovern
Humphrey
Undecided
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
46
41
13
43
42
15
SEX
Male
46
39
15
Female
46
42
12
RACE
White
47
39
14
Non-white
31
59
10
EDUCATION
College
55
35
10
High School
45
41
14
Grade School
35
47
18
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
54
37
9
White Collar
41
44
15
Farmers
55
33
12
Manual
44
40
16
AGE
18 20 years
56
38
6
21 29 years
60
28
12
30 49 years
43
44
13
50 & over
38
46
16
RELIGION
Protestant
44
42
14
Catholic
46
42
12
Jewish
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
47
39
14
Democrat
43
49
8
Independent
51
32
17
REGION
East
43
44
13
Midwest
51
39
10
South
40
43
17
West
50
35
15
INCOME
$15,000 & over
55
37
8
$10,000 $14,999
46
39
15
$7,000 $9,999
53
36
11
$5,000 $6,999
42
41
17
$3,000 $4,999
38
49
13
Under $3,000
31
46
23
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
52
37
11
500,000 999,999
37
47
16
50,000 499,999
48
43
9
2,500 49,999
39
42
19
Under 2,500, Rural
47
38
15
13
SEN. GEORGE MCGOVERN
Public's Image
"MODERN"
"INNOVATIVE"
"MODERATE"
SEN. HUBERT HUMPHREY
Public's Image
"TOO MUCH OF A POLITICIAN"
"UNINTERESTING"
"OLD FASHIONED"
GOV. GEORGE WALLACE
Public's Image
"PRESENTS IDEAS CLEARLY"
"TAKES EXTREME POSITIONS
"
"NON-INTELLECTUAL"
14
- Special "Image' Study -
McGovern Seen as 'Modern,' 'Innovative;'
HHH Considered 'Too Much a Politician'
The American public views Sen. George McGovern as less of a
politician, more modern in style and offering more innovative solutions to
national problems than either of his chief Democratic rivals, Sen. Hubert
Humphrey of Minnesota and Gov. George Wallace of Alabama.
At the same time, the public perceives McGovern as no more ex-
treme in his political positions than Humphrey and far less so than Wallace.
)
This finding is of particular interest inasmuch as some political observers
have characterized McGovern as the "Goldwater of the Democratic party."
Support for a candidate depends on a number of factors includ-
ing his personality, character and "style."
In view of the importance of these factors, it is instructive to
examine the image currently projected by each of the three leading Demo-
cratic contenders.
A scientifically selected sample of the electorate was asked to
select, from a list of nine pairs of statements, the statement in each pair
that comes closest to their own feelings about Sen. Hubert Humphrey of
Minnesota, Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota and Gov. George Wal-
lace of Alabama.
Humphrey is considered "too much of a politician" by a slight-
)
ly larger percentage than select this statement for Wallace and a considerably
larger percentage than use the statement to describe McGovern.
Similarly, more persons choose the following phrases to de-
scribe Humphrey than either McGovern or Wallace: "He changes what he
says to fit his audience"; "It is hard to know where he stands on issues."
Also, more voters think Humphrey projects an uninteresting or
dull image than does either McGovern or Wallace.
Wallace is the most likely to be regarded as frank and unequivo-
cating in making his political positions known. Larger percentages of the
public associate the following statements with Wallace than with McGovern:
"You know where he stands on issues," and "he says what he believes no
matter to whom he is speaking." Humphrey scores least well on these state-
ments.
15
In contrast to either of his Democratic rivals, however, Wallace
is considered by larger percentages of voters to be non-intellectual and as
taking extreme positions on issues.
Humphrey, having been involved as a key figure in Democratic
party activity for a quarter century, represents an "old face" on the Ameri-
can political scene. It is, therefore, perhaps not surprising that he is perceived
as somewhat less than modern in his approach or innovative in his solutions
to national problems.
Political observers generally place Humphrey near the center of
the political spectrum within the Democratic party - between Wallace on
the right and McGovern on the left. In seeking to appeal to both the liberal
and conservative wings of his party, Humphrey has taken a moderate or mid-
dle position on key issues which may be perceived by some as equivocating
or "fence-sitting."
Following are the details of the survey:
16
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
302
"We are trying to find out how people think of the various candidates. As I name a candidate,
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feelings about that candidate.'
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
Colorful, interesting personality
Dull, uninteresting, colorless
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
WAL
30
26
33
25
17
24
13
24
sie
26
27
35
25
20
23
12
26
smale
34
25
32
26
14
25
14
22
hite
30
26
35
26
18
26
12
25
on-white
30
27
13
22
12
11
26
14
TION
Mege
33
27
43
22
18
29
10
32
gh School
30
25
30
28
17
25
15
22
rade School
27
26
29
22
17
14
9
20
ATION
of. & Bus.
29
26
41
25
21
30
8
27
hite Collar
28
26
39
22
19
27
10
28
armers
40
20
17
22
5
23
19
11
anual
31
27
29
29
16
24
16
23
20 years
36
23
30
30
13
33
26
21
- 29 years
34
22
34
32
19
28
17
22
49 years
29
27
39
22
19
26
11
29
& over
27
27
29
24
15
17
10
22
ON
testant
31
27
33
26
18
24
13
24
holic
29
23
31
26
15
23
14
23
ish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
$
publican
28
23
37
22
17
24
9
26
nocrat
30
28
26
27
14
17
14
20
tependent
31
24
39
25
21
35
14
29
(
st
29
26
33
23
16
23
16
28
dwest
34
31
33
27
14
18
13
23
1th
28
22
32
27
19
27
12
19
st
26
23
35
24
21
25
10
26
for
5,000 & over
34
29
46
21
18
27
11
35
0,000 $14,999
29
26
37
29
21
32
12
26
1.000 $9,999
30
25
31
27
15
26
14
22
:.000 $6,999
30
25
29
27
11
17
14
15
3,000 $4,999
27
23
24
26
15
16
13
16
der $3,000
32
25
19
19
17
17
17
21
NITY SIZE
000,000 & over
30
27
36
20
15
23
13
33
10,000 999,999
29
22
31
23
14
27
11
25
10,000 499,999
27
30
32
22
21
22
13
27
2 500 49,999
38
28
40
33
14
26
12
23
nder 2,500, Rural
28
22
29
28
18
24
15
16
17
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feelings about that candidate.'
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Has modern innovative solutions
"Has old-fashioned, behind-the-times,
to national problems
solutions to national problems
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
34
24
16
27
9
18
25
13
SEX
Male
32
24
16
26
11
19
27
15
Female
36
24
16
29
7
16
23
11
RACE
White
35
24
18
27
9
19
24
14
Non-white
28
26
4
27
7
9
35
7
EDUCATION
College
40
24
15
27
6
22
32
15
High School
31
23
17
28
11
18
22
12
Grade School
34
27
16
25
7
11
24
13
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
35
20
17
28
19
23
23
13
White Collar
36
26
17
28
6
16
26
12
Farmers
36
20
11
23
11
8
11
3
Manual
26
27
19
28
9
17
26
16
AGE
18 20 years
40
28
19
36
10
19
33
14
21 29 years
37
26
16
32
11
20
30
21
30 49 years
33
24
17
26
10
20
24
13
50 & over
32
22
15
23
7
14
21
13
RELIGION
Protestant
34
24
18
30
10
16
23
12
Catholic
32
23
15
24
8
19
24
14
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
33
20
15
28
11
19
21
10
Democrat
33
30
14
27
6
12
26
12
Independent
36
19
20
26
11
24
27
18
REGION
East
37
21
15
27
6
19
26
12
Midwest
37
25
19
29
8
17
23
14
South
27
26
18
26
11
15
21
15
West
33
25
13
26
21
20
33
12
INCOME
$15,000 & over
37
24
16
27
8
21
28
17
$10,000 $14,999
37
23
18
30
10
23
23
15
$7,000 $9,999
34
27
17
31
10
17
26
10
$5,000 $6,999
34
23
17
21
7
11
21
14
$3,000 $4,999
29
19
16
20
7
16
25
12
Under $3,000
34
30
9
30
9
12
27
11
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
37
21
13
23
9
22
31
18
500,000 999,999
32
21
18
29
3
18
22
9
50,000 499,999
34
28
15
25
8
15
28
15
2,500 49,999
39
28
21
35
10
17
25
17
Under 2,500, Rural
30
21
16
26
12
16
20
9
18
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate."
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Intellectual"
"Non-intellectual"
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
42
35
21
36
5
9
20
8
SEX
Male
42
36
22
36
7
10
20
9
Female
43
35
21
37
4
7
20
7
RACE
White
44
36
22
37
5
9
20
9
Non-white
31
35
15
32
7
6
22
6
EDUCATION
College
51
34
17
40
4
13
29
10
High School
41
37
22
37
5
8
17
7
Grade School
33
33
24
29
8
5
16
9
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
45
32
17
39
5
12
26
10
White Collar
42
42
23
35
6
6
18
6
Farmers
36
29
27
21
-
12
2
7
Manual
44
39
24
38
6
8
19
8
AGE
18 20 years
45
44
23
40
11
13
25
8
21 29 years
45
37
23
43
4
11
22
6
30 49 years
44
36
20
36
6
9
22
11
50 & over
38
32
20
31
6
7
16
7
RELIGION
Protestant
41
36
22
36
7
9
19
10
Catholic
41
35
21
37
3
7
17
7
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
36
32
21
33
8
9
20
8
Democrat
42
35
20
35
5
7
18
8
Independent
48
38
23
40
5
11
23
9
REGION
East
44
34
18
36
5
8
23
8
Midwest
42
42
22
39
4
6
20
8
South
42
30
27
33
6
12
15
9
West
40
36
17
34
10
9
25
9
INCOME
$15,000 & over
47
35
21
38
4
10
26
10
$10,000 $14,999
48
38
22
40
7
11
22
12
$7,000 $9,999
44
39
27
39
4
11
15
7
$5,000 $6,999
38
33
19
32
4
6
14
3
$3,000 $4,999
33
31
21
28
6
7
16
6
Under $3,000
31
30
15
30
10
4
23
11
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
44
41
14
40
4
6
29
9
500,000 999,999
37
26
19
32
5
11
22
8
50,000 499,999
45
37
18
34
5
7
22
9
2,500 49,999
43
36
30
40
10
11
15
10
Under 2,500, Rural
40
35
24
34
5
9
15
7
19
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate.'
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Presents his ideas in vague
"Presents his ideas clearly"
or confused manner
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
35
25
32
27
15
21
14
24
SEX
Male
34
23
32
26
17
23
14
24
Female
37
28
32
28
13
19
15
23
RACE
White
35
24
33
27
15
22
14
25
Non-white
36
39
22
24
14
13
20
18
EDUCATION
College
39
21
33
24
18
28
15
28
High School
35
24
32
28
14
20
14
24
Grade School
32
33
30
27
15
14
16
19
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
32
22
32
26
20
25
13
23
White Collar
33
25
36
19
12
20
16
28
Farmers
49
21
19
20
7
20
16
22
Manual
37
26
33
29
15
22
16
25
AGE
18 20 years
40
27
37
30
14
30
15
31
21 29 years
40
26
33
31
12
24
17
22
30 49 years
31
21
34
27
20
23
13
24
50 & over
35
29
28
24
13
15
14
23
RELIGION
Protestant
35
27
33
26
17
20
14
24
Catholic
33
21
30
28
13
23
15
23
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
34
17
31
25
13
23
13
24
Democrat
35
31
29
26
14
16
15
24
Independent
38
24
38
29
17
26
14
25
REGION
East
37
22
30
29
11
22
16
22
Midwest
40
31
32
30
14
18
12
24
South
30
23
35
22
19
23
13
26
West
33
24
29
27
19
20
17
26
INCOME
$15,000 & over
34
21
35
25
21
27
14
30
$10,000 $14,999
38
21
38
30
14
27
14
28
$7,000 $9,999
39
32
32
26
13
18
18
22
$5,000 $6,999
31
25
25
28
14
18
11
18
$3,000 $4,999
37
27
29
24
8
16
14
20
Under $3,000
32
36
27
28
15
10
16
18
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
37
29
27
27
12
21
21
27
500,000 999,999
33
18
32
27
12
24
12
22
50,000 499,999
34
28
30
25
15
17
15
23
2,500 49,999
43
23
36
27
15
28
15
30
Under 2,500, Rural
32
25
33
28
19
19
10
21
20
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate."
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"You know where he stands on issues"
"Hard to know where he stands on issues"
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
30
25
39
22
20
25
15
30
SEX
Male
30
23
41
21
22
29
15
32
Female
30
26
37
22
18
22
15
28
RACE
White
30
24
40
22
20
27
15
31
Non-white
27
33
35
20
18
10
14
19
EDUCATION
College
38
22
43
22
15
36
15
40
High School
28
24
40
22
21
23
14
26
Grade School
21
29
31
20
25
17
18
26
OCOUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
32
21
46
23
19
31
14
32
White Collar
31
25
42
17
18
25
13
34
Farmers
34
18
16
17
6
20
21
25
Manual
30
25
40
22
23
25
14
29
AGE
18 20 years
33
25
38
24
15
30
11
26
21 29 years
36
23
44
23
17
30
15
33
30 49 years
30
25
40
23
23
28
14
31
50 & over
25
26
36
20
20
19
16
28
RELIGION
Protestant
28
26
41
21
22
26
15
30
Catholic
30
23
34
24
19
22
15
27
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
29
21
38
21
21
27
16
30
Democrat
31
30
36
22
19
19
15
26
Independent
29
20
45
22
20
33
14
36
REGION
East
33
27
40
27
17
21
16
23
Midwest
30
23
39
20
19
27
16
34
South
26
23
39
19
24
29
15
30
West
29
27
38
16
21
23
13
33
INCOME
$15,000 & over
29
20
46
21
20
33
12
33
$10,000 $14,999
36
26
42
23
19
30
13
34
$7,000 $9,999
31
28
41
21
18
25
18
31
$5,000 $6,999
24
24
35
22
21
24
14
25
$3,000 $4,999
27
22
31
22
18
17
16
24
Under $3,000
27
32
30
24
22
15
19
26
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
32
28
40
25
15
22
17
27
500,000 999,999
33
16
37
20
12
30
12
25
50,000 499,999
32
28
40
21
20
22
14
32
2,500 49,999
28
25
40
20
26
29
18
36
Under 2,500, Rural
26
24
38
23
24
26
15
29
21
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate.'
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Puts country's interest ahead of politics"
"Too much of a politician
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
28
22
20
23
21
35
26
24
SEX
Male
28
21
24
23
24
38
23
26
Female
28
23
17
24
19
32
30
23
RACE
White
28
21
22
23
22
37
26
25
Non-white
26
34
7
25
12
18
30
18
EDUCATION
College
34
13
17
25
20
50
29
27
High School
27
24
19
22
22
32
28
24
Grade School
20
30
28
27
21
24
20
21
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
28
14
17
25
20
49
31
23
White Collar
33
20
20
18
20
37
24
25
Farmers
29
13
17
15
17
50
19
25
Manual
30
25
23
24
22
31
25
27
AGE
18 20 years
43
17
20
26
18
38
29
29
21 29 years
29
17
19
24
21
41
27
26
30 49 years
29
24
22
23
22
36
27
25
50 & over
22
25
20
22
22
30
25
22
RELIGION
Protestant
24
23
21
22
24
36
25
26
Catholic
32
21
19
28
18
34
27
21
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
23
17
19
21
23
41
26
22
Democrat
31
30
19
28
17
26
26
20
Independent
28
16
23
20
25
45
27
32
REGION
East
32
20
14
26
15
34
30
22
Midwest
32
26
20
25
20
32
28
23
South
19
21
29
21
25
38
19
27
West
27
21
17
19
28
37
31
26
INCOME
$15,000 & over
29
16
21
23
24
48
28
29
$10,000 $14,999
31
19
23
22
23
41
28
29
$7,000 $9,999
31
23
19
25
17
31
31
19
$5,000 $6,999
27
20
17
22
22
31
22
23
$3,000 $4,999
20
31
20
24
15
24
22
20
Under $3,000
24
34
19
27
23
23
25
14
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
32
22
13
22
19
34
33
25
500,000 999,999
26
24
18
26
21
36
29
23
50,000 499,999
31
29
22
21
18
30
21
24
2,500 49,999
31
20
24
31
23
39
28
26
Under 2,500, Rural
22
17
23
21
25
37
24
24
22
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate."
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Extremist, takes extreme positions"
"A moderate, takes moderate positions"
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
13
11
46
10
32
31
9
35
SEX
Male
15
13
44
11
32
30
9
33
Female
11
8
48
9
31
32
8
36
RACE
White
13
11
47
10
32
31
9
35
Non-white
9
11
40
10
28
26
5
31
EDUCATION
College
15
10
58
9
35
37
6
42
High School
11
11
45
11
34
29
9
33
Grade School
15
11
36
10
22
27
10
31
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
12
10
59
10
31
33
6
38
White Collar
14
8
46
7
38
36
10
35
Farmers
12
9
29
7
21
22
9
32
Manual
10
13
44
11
36
31
10
36
AGE
18 20 years
12
14
42
14
42
34
12
34
21 29 years
9
14
46
8
36
33
9
42
30 49 years
14
9
50
11
33
34
8
34
50 & over
15
10
44
10
26
26
8
31
RELIGION
Protestant
15
12
43
11
32
29
10
34
Catholic
11
9
48
9
30
33
7
35
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
18
13
48
10
28
26
7
32
Democrat
11
8
44
10
31
32
9
33
Independent
12
14
48
10
35
32
10
39
REGION
East
13
10
52
9
30
31
7
36
Midwest
11
10
48
8
36
35
7
38
South
14
13
33
15
30
28
14
27
West
16
10
56
10
31
29
6
37
INCOME
$15,000 & over
16
11
57
9
32
34
9
38
$10,000 $14,999
13
13
53
11
41
35
8
41
$7,000 $9,999
16
11
43
11
30
31
8
35
$5,000 $6,999
8
7
37
9
31
27
11
32
$3,000 $4,999
10
9
34
10
21
24
10
23
Under $3,000
12
9
42
10
28
30
5
31
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
10
10
52
7
35
35
6
44
500,000 999,999
19
8
48
11
26
32
9
31
50,000 499,999
9
11
47
8
33
26
8
35
2,500 49,999
15
13
46
16
36
40
11
35
Under 2,500, Rural
14
10
41
11
29
27
9
30
23
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate."
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Says what he believes no matter
"Changes what he says to fit the
whom he is talking to"
audience he is talking to"
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
27
23
48
26
20
29
15
26
SEX
Male
27
19
51
24
21
33
13
28
Female
27
26
44
28
18
26
17
24
RACE
White
27
23
49
26
21
31
14
26
Non-white
28
28
37
25
8
17
20
21
EDUCATION
College
29
16
49
24
22
40
15
33
High School
25
23
49
25
18
28
15
25
Grade School
30
31
42
30
20
21
13
18
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
27
17
49
24
22
37
13
28
White Collar
26
21
47
22
17
34
17
31
Farmers
24
20
36
24
13
29
12
25
Manual
29
26
53
28
19
27
14
25
AGE
18 20 years
32
21
47
23
16
41
12
26
21 29 years
28
19
50
28
19
31
17
29
30 49 years
27
23
52
24
23
31
15
28
50 & over
25
26
43
28
18
24
14
22
RELIGION
Protestant
26
24
50
26
22
29
15
27
Catholic
26
20
46
27
18
31
14
24
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
26
21
47
26
21
31
16
25
Democrat
27
26
46
26
17
24
15
24
Independent
28
20
50
24
23
37
13
29
REGION
East
29
22
43
25
16
30
14
22
Midwest
29
27
49
31
20
30
14
23
South
24
19
51
22
22
31
17
29
West
25
24
46
25
23
27
14
30
INCOME
$15,000 & over
24
19
50
26
27
40
15,
28
$10,000 $14,999
27
19
56
25
22
34
14
33
$7,000 $9,999
31
24
51
28
16
27
14
21
$5,000 $6,999
30
24
45
25
18
23
11
20
$3,000 $4,999
30
34
36
24
8
19
18
21
Under $3,000
23
24
36
30
22
23
21
21
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
30
21
45
25
14
30
15
24
500,000 999,999
26
15
45
28
16
37
13
23
50,000 499,999
28
25
45
26
19
27
17
26
2,500 49,999
38
27
55
27
20
32
16
31
Under 2,500, Rural
19
25
48
25
26
26
13
24
24
IMAGE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Question:
"
would you read off from each pair of statements the one that comes closest to your own
feeling about that candidate.'
APRIL 28 MAY 1, 1972
"Old-fashioned in style"
"Modern in style"
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
McGovern
Humphrey
Wallace
Muskie
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL
12
29
28
20
32
16
14
24
SEX
Male
13
30
29
23
32
16
15
22
Female
12
28
27
16
32
16
14
27
RACE
White
12
30
28
20
33
16
15
25
Non-white
12
16
30
17
28
19
6
21
EDUCATION
College
9
34
34
24
39
16
12
23
High School
13
29
16
18
31
15
15
26
Grade School
14
20
27
18
27
20
16
23
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
10
35
30
21
37
13
13
23
White Collar
17
24
31
22
31
20
14
25
Farmers
4
13
19
15
30
16
18
15
Manual
14
30
28
19
31
17
15
28
AGE
18 20 years
11
33
34
21
37
17
14
29
21 29 years
13
31
33
18
32
15
15
30
30 49 years
13
30
28
20
36
16
14
24
50 & over
12
26
24
20
28
16
14
20
RELIGION
Protestant
12
28
30
20
33
16
13
24
Catholic
12
28
25
19
31
15
16
27
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
12
29
26
21
29
14
13
20
Democrat
12
24
25
17
31
17
13
27
Independent
13
36
34
23
36
15
17
25
REGION
East
12
33
28
22
30
13
13
21
Midwest
11
26
27
20
35
19
15
26
South
13
5
27
19
30
17
14
22
West
14
32
32
15
33
12
14
29
INCOME
$15,000 & over
10
35
31
24
39
15
14
21
$10,000 $14,999
14
32
28
19
36
20
16
29
$7,000 $6,999
12
29
29
20
33
16
16
28
$5,000 $6,999
13
24
22
14
27
13
14
21
$3,000 $4,999
11
19
23
19
24
17
13
21
Under $3,000
10
27
36
19
29
13
10
24
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
14
34
31
21
33
15
15
22
500,000 999,999
10
31
25
18
31
15
13
21
50,000 499,999
13
27
31
23
30
16
14
23
2,500 49,999
14
31
26
21
39
20
21
22
Under 2,500, Rural
11
25
26
16
31
15
10
25
25
FIREARM REGISTRATION
Question: "Would you favor or oppose a law which would require a person to obtain a police permit
before he or she could buy a gun?"
MAY 26-29, 1972
Favor
Oppose
No Opinion
%
%
%
NATIONAL
71
25
4
SEX
Male
65
31
4
Female
77
18
5
RACE
White
71
25
4
Non-white
72
21
7
EDUCATION
College
74
23
3
High School
71
25
4
Grade School
67
27
6
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
75
22
3
White Collar
71
23
6
Farmers
56
32
12
Manual
70
26
4
AGE
.
18 20 years
69
26
5
21 29 years
74
23
3
30 49 years
68
28
4
50 & over
73
22
5
RELIGION
Protestant
67
28
5
Catholic
78
19
3
Jewish
X
X
X
POLITICS
Republican
73
22
5
Democrat
72
24
4
Independent
70
27
3
REGION
East
77
19
4
Midwest
72
25
3
South
68
27
5
West
64
30
6
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
83
14
3
500,000 999,999
75
20
5
50,000 499,999
73
25
2
2,500 49,999
67
26
7
Under 2,500, Rural
63
32
5
GUN OWNERSHIP
Gun Owner
61
34
5
Non-Gun Owner
80
16
4
26
COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE
Interviewing Dates: May 26-29, 1972
NATIONAL
1540
SEX
Male
758
Female
782
RACE
White
1379
Non-white
161
EDUCATION
College
420
High School
859
Grade School
253
OCCUPATION
Prof. & Bus.
373
White Collar
180
Farmers
62
Manual
596
AGE
18 20 years
76
21 29 years
312
30 49 years
528
50 & over
604
RELIGION
Protestant
915
Catholic
450
Jewish
43
POLITICS
Republican
367
Democrat
661
Independent
489
REGION
East
420
Midwest
436
South
430
West
254
INCOME
$15,000 & over
298
$10,000 $14,999
410
$7,000 $9,999
245
$5,000 $6,999
207
$3,000 $4,999
189
Under $3,000
156
COMMUNITY SIZE
1,000,000 & over
296
500,000 999,999
198
50,000 499,999
376
2,500 49,999
237
Under 2,500, Rural
433
27
DESIGN OF THE SAMPLE
The design of the sample is that of a replicated prob-
The following tables may be used in estimating the
ability sample down to the block level in the case of
sampling error of any percentage in this report. The
urban areas and to segments of townships in the case
computed allowances have taken into account the
of rural areas.
effect of the sample design upon sampling error.
They may be interpreted as indicating the range (plus
After stratifying the nation geographically and by size
or minus the figure shown) within which the results
of community in order to insure conformity of the
of repeated samplings in the same time period could
sample with the latest available estimates by the Cen-
be expected to vary, 95 per cent of the time, as-
sus Bureau of the distribution of the adult population,
suming the same sampling procedure, the same inter-
about 320 different sampling locations or areas were
viewers, and the same questionnaire.
selected on a strictly random basis, The interviewers
had no choice whatsoever concerning the part of the
Table A shows how much allowance should be made
city or county in which they conducted their inter-
for the sampling error of a percentage.
views.
The table would be used in the following manner:
Approximately 5 interviews were conducted in each
Let us say a reported percentage is 33 for a group
such randomly selected sampling point. Interviewers
which includes 1500 respondents. Then we go to
were given maps of the area to which they were as-
row "percentages near 30" in the table and go across
signed, with a starting point indicated, and required
to the column headed "1500." The number at this
to follow a specified direction. At each occupied
point is 3, which means that the 33 per cent obtained
dwelling unit, interviewers were instructed to select
in the sample is subject to a sampling error of plus or
respondents by following a prescribed systematic
minus 3 points. Another way of saying it is that very
method and by a male-female assignment. This pro-
probably (95 chances out of 100) the average of re-
cedure was followed until the assigned number of
peated samplings would be somewhere between 30
interviews was completed.
and 36, with the most likely figure the 33 obtained.
Since this sampling procedure is designed to produce
In comparing survey results in two samples, such as
a sample which approximates the adult civilian pop-
men and women, the question arises as to how large
ulation (21 and older) living in private households in
must a difference between them be before one can be
the U.S. (that is, excluding those in prisons and hos-
reasonably sure that it reflects a real difference. In
pitals, hotels, religious and educational institutions,
tables B and C, the number of points which must be
and on military reservations), the survey results can
allowed for, is such comparisons, is indicated.
be applied to this population for the purpose of pro-
jecting percentages into number of people. The man-
Two tables are provided. One is for percentages near
ner in which the sample is drawn also produces a sam-
20 or 80; the other for percentages near 50. For
ple which approximates the population of private
percentages in between, the error to be allowed for is
households in the United States. Therefore, survey
between that shown in the two tables.
results can also be projected in terms of number of
households when appropriate.
Here is an example of how the tables would be used:
Let us say that 50 per cent of men respond a certain
way and 40 per cent of women respond that way also,
SAMPLING TOLERANCES
for a difference of 10 percentage points between
them. Can we say with any assurance that the 10-
point difference reflects a real difference between
men and women on the question? The sample con-
tains approximately 750 men and 750 women.
In interpreting survey results, it should be borne in
mind that all sample surveys are subject to sampling
Since the percentages are near 50, we consult Table B,
error, that is, the extent to which the results may
and since the two samples are about 750 persons each,
differ from what would be obtained if the whole
we look for the number in the column headed "750"
population surveyed had been interviewed. The
which is also in the row designated "750." We find
size of such sampling errors depends largely on the
the number 6 here. This means that the allowance for
number of interviews.
Continued on next page
28
buid be 6 points, and that in concluding that
percentage points.
entage among men is somewhere between 4
: crints higher than the percentage among wo-
If, in another case, men's responses amount to 22 per
smould be wrong only about 5 per cent of the
cent, say, and women's 24 per cent, we consult Table
in other words, we can conclude with con-
B because these percentages are near 20. We look in
: confidence that a difference exists in the
the column headed "750" and see that the number is
observed and that it amounts to at least 4
5. Obviously, then, the 2-point difference is inconclu-
sive.
A
Recommended Allowance for Sampling Error of a Percentage
In Percentage Points
(at 95 in 100 confidence level)
Sample
1500
1000
750
600
400
200
100
riges near 10
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
ges near 20
2
3
4
4
5
7
9
ages - near 30
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
ages near 40
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
ges near 50
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
ages near 60
3
4
4
5
6
8
11
ages near 7Q
3
4
4
4
6
8
10
ages near 80
2
3
4
4
5
7
9
ges near 90
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
:
ances are 95 in 100 that the sampling error is not larger than the figures shown.
TABLE B
Recommended Allowance for Sampling Error of the Difference
In Percentage Points
(at 95 in 100 confidence level) *
Percentages near 20 or percentages near 80
Size of the Sample
750
600
400
200
750
5
600
5
6
400
6
6
7
200
8
8
8
10
TABLE C
Percentages near 50
Size of the Sample
750
600
400
200
750
6
600
7
7
400
7
8
8
200
10
10
10
12
#
The chances are 95 in 100 that the sampling error is not larger than the figures shown.
VOTE BY GROUPS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(1952 - 1968)
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
Wal-
Dem.
Rep.
D
R
D
R
D
R
D
R
lace
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
TIONAL
44.6
55.4
42.2
57.8
50.1
49.9
61.3
38.7
43.0
43.4
13.6
47
53
45
55
52
48
60
40
41
43
16
nen
42
58
39
61
49
51
62
38
45
43
12
$
e
43
57
41
59
49
51
59
41
38
47
15
white
79
21
61
39
68
32
94
6
85
12
3
age
34
66
31
69
39
61
52
48
37
54
9
School
45
55
42
58
52
.48
62
38
42
43
15
le School
52
48
50
50
55
45
66
34
52
33
15
& Bus.
36
64
32
68
42
58
54
46
34
56
10
te Collar
40
60
37
63
48
52
57
43
41
47
12
ual
55
45
50
50
60
40
71
29
50
35
15
hers
33
67
46
54
48
52
53
47
29
51
20
er 30
51
49
43
57
54
46
64
36
47
38
15
49 years
47
53
45
55
54
46
63
37
44
41
15
ears & older
39
61
39
61
46
54
59
41
41
47
12
testant
37
63
37
63
38
62
55
45
35
49
16
holic
56
44
51
49
78
22
76
24
59
33
8
publicans
8
92
4
96
5
95
20
80
9
86
5
mocrats
77
23
85
15
84
16
87
13
74
12
14
dependents
35
65
30
70
43
57
56
44
31
44
25
st
45
55
40
60
53
47
68
32
50
43
7
dwest
42
58
41
59
48
52
61
39
44
47
9
with
51
49
49
51
51
49
52
48
31
36
33
West
42
58
43
57
49
51
60
40
44
49
7
". a handy guidebook for tackling some of the fragments of the trend
as they surface in daily news events." -THE BULLETIN
Polls,
A comprehensive analysis of the impact of public
opinion polls on voter behavior and of the impact of
mass media on public opinion regarding elections.
Television
The Role of Public Opinion
Polls in the United States
The Credibility of Voter
and
Preference Surveys
Partisan and Manipulative
Use of, Opinion Polls
the
Election Broadcasts and Their
Effect on Voter Habits
Radio and Television and the
Making of the Presidency
New
Now in use at 30 colleges and universities across the
nation, including:
Duke University
Univ. of Southern Calif.
Northwestern Univ.
Wesleyen University
Politics
Swarthmore College
Univ. of N. Carolina
Ohio State University
Univ. of Illinois
$3.95 paper
$7.95 cloth
By Harold Mendelsohn and Irving Crespi
UNIV. OF DENVER
THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION, INC.
Chandler Publishing Company
Scranton, Penna. 18515
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, July 16, 1972
56% Approve of His Performance
Nixon's Popularity Dips Slightly But
Remains Near 41-Month Average
PRESIDENT NIXON'S POPULARITY
Rating Introduced
By George Gallup
% Approval
During FDR's Time
The presidential popularity rating
Copyright, 1972,
80
was introduced by the Gallup Poll in
Field Enterprises, Inc.
1938 during FDR's second administra-
NIXON'S
tion. Since that time the poll has used
70
VIETNAM
the rating on a regular basis to measure
Nixon Popularity Index
SPEECH
CONGRESSIONAL
ELECTIONS
RUSSIA
the impact of issues and events on the
Per Cent Who Approve
PENTAGON
TRIP
CHINA
popularity of Presidents Roosevelt,
PRINCETON, N.J., July 15 Presi-
60
WAGE-PRICE
Current
PAPERS
TRIP
FREEZE
Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy. John-
dent Nixon's current popularity rating
MOON
son and Nixon.
Average in
NIXON
of 56 per cent approval points up the
SHOT
DEMOCRATIC
current year
50
TAKES OFFICE
TROOPS SENT
tough job the Democrats face in try-
TO CAMBODIA
LAOS
CONVENTION
The presidential popularity measure-
Average since
INVASION
ANNOUNCEMENT
ment has proved to be a sensitive baro-
ing to capture the White House this
taking office
57
OF PHASE II
meter in reflecting the attitudes of the
fall.
40
electorate toward the president as a
High since taking office
While the President's rating is down
(recorded: Nov. %)
68%
political personality and toward his
slightly from the previous measurement
30
performance in office.
Low since taking office
of in per cent. recorded in mid-June,
(recorded: June 71)
1969
1970
1971
1972
Following is the question asked:
it IS only a point under his overall
Other Presidents
average of 57 per cent approval. record-
Do you approve or disapprove of
ed for the 41 months since he has been
President Nixon took office with 59 per cent of Americans expressing approval and 36 per
the way Nixon is bandling his job
Per Cent Who Approve
in office.
cent withholding judgment. The President's highest point in popularity, 68 per cent approval, was
as President?
President Johnson:
recorded following his speech on his Vietnamization program in November, 1969. His low point to
President Nixon's average popularity
Here is the trend since the beginning
High
Low
Average
date, 48 per cent, was recorded in June of last year, reflecting the pubile's concern over the econ-
for the first half of 1972, based
of the year:
35%
omy and the Vietnam war. His latest rating of per cent approval was recorded in late June, prior
on seven successive surveys. is 55 per-
to the Democratic Convention.
Ap-
Disap-
No
cent actually five points higher than
prove
prove
Opin.
President Kennedy:
is average popularity rating for the
recent surveys have shown almost four
;
High
Low
Average
first half of last year.
in ten doing so.
Jan. 7-9
49
39
12
83%
57%
But Rating Lower
Has Sustained Support
The following table compares Presi-
Feb. 4-7
53
36
II
Than LBJ's in '61
With Democratic Groups
Trip to China
Presider Eisenhower:
dent Nixon's popularity among Jews
While President Nixon's popularity
President Nixon has registered pop-
March. 3-5
56
32
12
and Catholics during the last three
High
Low
Average
ularity pains over the last year with all
months with his ratings during the same
March 24.27
"
37
10
remains at a relatively high level at
155;
66
this point prior to the major party con-
groups, including those which tradi-
months last year. Surveys have been
Trip to Russia
ventions, his approval score falls well
tionally vote Democratic, such as Jews,
combined to increase the size of the
May 26-29
61
32
7
President Tram.on:
Catholics, manual workers and Blacks.
June 16-19
no
32
8
below President Lyndon Johnson's score
samples of these groups.
High
Low
Average
June 23-26
56
33
II
of "+ per cent at a comparable point
For example, survey data show that
87%
23%
in the presidential election year of 1964
approximately 8 in TO Jews voted
Per Cent Approving:
The latest results are based on in-
and President Dwight Eisenhower's
against Nixon in the 1968 presidential
1971
1972
Change
person interviews with 1538 adults. 18
Question: Do you approve or
score at a comparable point in 1956.
election, Furthermore, surveys taken
%
%
and older. Interviews were conducted
disapprove of the way (name of
Both President Johnson and President
in the Spring of 1971 showed only one
Jews
25
37
+12
in more than 300 scientifically selected
incumbent) is handling his job at
Eisenhower won landslide victories in
Jew in four expressing approval of his
Catholics
46
57
+11
localities across the nation during the
President?
November.
performance in office. However, more
Protestants
53
62
+9,
period June 23-26.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH GEORGE GALLUP, JR. -- July 11, 1972
G - Yes?
S - This is Gordon Strachan, sir.
G - Yes, how are you sir?
S - Just fine. I talk with John Davies from time to time and he
mentioned that in his absence I might call you about some
questions we have.
G - Fine.
S - Have you got a moment?
G - Yes sir.
S - I'm curious if you're going to run Presidential popularity --
if you've taken a poll on that recently?
G - We have and we're going to publish it right away actually for
Sunday.
S - Can you tell me the results?
G - Yes, it's down slightly but only marginally from the previous
one. The previous one was 60% approval.
S - So it's what?
G - It's still high. It's at about 56.
S - 56. Disapproval probably 37?
G - 33.
S - 33.
G - No opinion 11.
S - 11. What will the headline be? Any idea?
- 2 -
G - I have no idea. We've just been looking at the figures and
we're going to analyze it by groups.
S - I see.
G - Particularly Jews.
S - Oh, that will be interesting.
G - Right.
S - What were the polling dates?
G - This particular one, let's see, June 23 through 26
S - June 23 through 26. Excellent. And that will be released
Sunday.
G - That will be released Sunday, right.
S - Good. Did you also conduct trial heats at that time?
G - Trial heats? No, we did not. We didn't have any trial heats.
S - OK. We read with some considerable interest your first referendum
release that came out for release today.
G - Oh yes, right.
S - Are you going to be releasing some more of those, the balance of
the questions?
G - We'll be releasing, we'll have a release just before the GOP
convention giving the view of the Republicans on the same issues.
S - Just on those three?
G - Pardon me? No, there are about six issues.
S - On all six.
G - That's right.
- 3 -
S - Do you have that tabulated now?
G - We don't actually. We quite frankly still have some ballots
in particular areas to be collected.
S - OK. Anything else of interest?
G - Nothing at the moment, no. No, nothing at this particular
moment.
S - All right. No big issues or polls on Vietnam or anything
coming up, huh?
G - No. Not at the moment. We have a survey going out and we'll
have, we won't be including the President's popularity on that
but we will have the most important problems. Typically, we've
stopped polling on the popularity during this period, between
now and the election. Because it gets confused with the actual
trial heat figures.
S - So there will be no popularity between now and the election?
G - Right, right. It causes confusion. The trend gets completely
thrown off.
S - Yes, I see. But you will be conducting trial heats regularly.
G - Indeed we will, right. And we'll have one of those coming up
right after the Democratic Convention.
S - So the survey is in the field now?
G - The survey is just going out, right.
S - OK. And so that will probably be released some time around
July 25 or SO.
G - That's correct. Well actually we hope to do it a little before
that.
- 4 -
S - Oh. Maybe the 20th or 22nd, somewhere in there.
G - Let's see. The 20th, the 22nd.
S - The 20th is Thursday, maybe that Sunday?
G - Maybe even before that. We just don't know yet. It depends
on when we get the material back. Possibly the middle of next
week if we can get it that fast.
S - When would be convenient for you to have me check?
G - Well, if you would like to call perhaps Monday afternoon because
we won't be getting the data, it won't come in until Sunday and
we have it out until Monday. So by the afternoon we might have
something that's near final.
S - OK. So I should call you then on Monday?
G - That will be swell.
S - Thank you very much, Mr. Gallup.
G - OK.
S - Good to talk with you.
G - Nice to talk with you.
S - Bye.
G - Bye, bye.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., July 13, 1972
GOP Voters Blame Labor First
Government Blamed More Often
Than Business, Labor for Inflation
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON. N. J., July 12 - For
1556 adults, 18 and older. The survey
many months, inflation has been one
was conducted April 21-24 and covered
of the top two domestic concerns of
more than 300 scientifically selected
localities across the nation. This ques.
Republicans
27
17
the American people. When asked
43
IS
tion was asked:
Democrats
48
20
18
16
which is responsible for inflation. most
people blame government rather than
In your opinion, which is most
Independents
39
23
33
10
labor or business.
responsible for inflation - govern-
Income:
ment. business or labor?
Four in ten say government is most
$15,000 & over
31
18
42
I3
to blame, while three in ten say labor
Here are the national findings and
$10,000-$14,999
41
20
32
II
and two in ten point the finger of blame
those by key population groups:
$7,000-$9,999
43
22
29
8
at business.
Busi-
No
$5,000-$6,999
44
25
20
13
However, one's views on where the
Gor't. ness Labor Opin.
$3,000-$4,999
38
20
24
19
blame lies depend in considerable mea-
is
%
%
00
Under $3,000
38
15
18
33
sure on such factors as political affilia-
NATIONAL
39
20
29
14
tion, occupation. educational attain-
Prof. & Business 34
20
42
9
Clerical & Sales
ment, and income.
College
42
17
31
II
Manual labor
background
24
44
8
45
23
21
13
Nearly half of Democrats (48 per
29
Farmers
High school
27
20
12
13
44
I5
cent) say government is most respon-
43
27
Grade school
sible for infllation, a far larger per
39
17
19
26
Labor union
centage than name business (20 per
families
22
51
24
18
Men
II
cent) or labor (18 per cent). Republi-
37
34
II
Non-union
Women
cans on the other hand lean heavily
41
19
25
17
families
35
19
33
15
to the view that labor is chiefly to blame
for inflation.
Under 30 yrs.
37
29
27
8
NOTE: Total for each group adds to more
30-49 yrs.
41
18
31
13
than 100 per cent since some persons
Among the college-educated. profes-
50 & over
39
16
29
20
care et multiple response.
sional and business people, and those
persons in the upper income brackets.
the weight of opinion is that labor is
most to blame. In addition. larger pro-
portions in these groups place the blame
on government than on business.
In contrast. those with only a grade
school education, manual workers and
lower income people are prone to place
the blame for inflation upon govern-
Coming Sunday!
ment.
Half of persons in labor union fami-
lies (si per cent) say government is
most responsible for inflation. while 24
per cent names business and 18 per cent
blaine labor.
Is Nixon Gaining Appeal
One of those who is critical of gov-
ernment is a 33-year old office worker
With the Traditionally
from Connecticut who commented:
"The government hasn't been able to
Democratic Jewish
find any effective long-term guidelines
that are workable. Thus they are neg-
lecting a major responsibility to the
Population?
American people.'
A 44-year old housewife puts the
blame on labor: "The demands of labor
President Richard Nixon
on industry are (H) the whole unreal-
istic. When labor union members get
In a special report for Sunday on President Nixon's popularity.
more money, prices have to be increased
the President's appeal with American Jews will be analyzed
or products can't be manufactured. It's
GOP politic strategists consider this traditionally Democratic
a vicious cycle."
voting group as a new target group for the GOP in the forthcom
Business is the chief culprit, accord-
ing presidential campaign.
ing to a New Jersey homeowner: "Bust-
Nixon's standing with other Democratic groups - such as
ness wants too large a profit. Besides
blacks and Catholics will also be analyzed
some companies aren't managed effici-
ently and there IS a tremendous amount
Sunday's report will also include the full trend of Nixon
of waste."
popularity stree taking office, as well as a look at the reasons behind
his current popularity rating.
The results reported today are based
on in-person with a total of
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH GEORGE GALLUP, JR. -- July 11, 1972
G - Yes?
S - This is Gordon Strachan, sir.
G - Yes, how are you sir?
S - Just fine. I talk with John Davies from time to time and he
mentioned that in his absence I might call you about some
questions we have.
G - Fine.
S - Have you got a moment?
G - Yes sir.
S - I'm curious if you're going to run Presidential popularity --
if you've taken a poll on that recently?
G - We have and we're going to publish it right away actually for
Sunday.
S - Can you tell me the results?
G - Yes, it's down slightly but only marginally from the previous
one. The previous one was 60% approval.
S - So it's what?
G - It's still high. It's at about 56.
S - 56. Disapproval probably 37?
G - 33.
S - 33.
G - No opinion 11.
S - 11. What will the headline be? Any idea?
- 2 -
G - I have no idea. We've just been looking at the figures and
we're going to analyze it by groups.
S - I see.
G - Particularly Jews.
S - Oh, that will be interesting.
G - Right.
S - What were the polling dates?
G - This particular one, let's see, June 23 through 26
S - June 23 through 26. Excellent. And that will be released
Sunday.
G - That will be released Sunday, right.
S - Good. Did you also conduct trial heats at that time?
G - Trial heats? No, we did not. We didn't have any trial heats.
S - OK. We read with some considerable interest your first referendum
release that came out for release today.
G - Oh yes, right.
S - Are you going to be releasing some more of those, the balance of
the questions?
G - We'll be releasing, we'll have a release just before the GOP
convention giving the view of the Republicans on the same issues.
S - Just on those three?
G - Pardon me? No, there are about six issues.
S - On all six.
G - That's right.
- 3 -
S - Do you have that tabulated now?
G - We don't actually. We quite frankly still have some ballots
in particular areas to be collected.
S - OK. Anything else of interest?
G - Nothing at the moment, no. No, nothing at this particular
moment.
S - All right. No big issues or polls on Vietnam or anything
coming up, huh?
G - No. Not at the moment. We have a survey going out and we'll
have, we won't be including the President's popularity on that
but we will have the most important problems. Typically, we've
stopped polling on the popularity during this period, between
now and the election. Because it gets confused with the actual
trial heat figures.
S - So there will be no popularity between now and the election?
G - Right, right. It causes confusion. The trend gets completely
thrown off.
S - Yes, I see. But you will be conducting trial heats regularly.
G - Indeed we will, right. And we'll have one of those coming up
right after the Democratic Convention.
S - So the survey is in the field now?
G - The survey is just going out, right.
S - OK. And so that will probably be released some time around
July 25 or SO.
G - That's correct. Well actually we hope to do it a little before
that.
- 4 -
S - Oh. Maybe the 20th or 22nd, somewhere in there.
G - Let's see. The 20th, the 22nd.
S - The 20th is Thursday, maybe that Sunday?
G - Maybe even before that. We just don't know yet. It depends
on when we get the material back. Possibly the middle of next
week if we can get it that fast.
S - When would be convenient for you to have me check?
G - Well, if you would like to call perhaps Monday afternoon because
we won't be getting the data, it won't come in until Sunday and
we have it out until Monday. So by the afternoon we might have
something that's near final.
S - OK. So I should call you then on Monday?
G - That will be swell.
S - Thank you very much, Mr. Gallup.
G - OK.
S - Good to talk with you.
G - Nice to talk with you.
S - Bye.
G - Bye, bye.
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Tuesday, July 11, 1972
REFERENDUM IN FOUR 'INDICATOR' COUNTIES
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS SHARPLY DIVIDED ON KEY ISSUES TO BE DEBATED AT CONVENTION
Some of the Key
Proposals of Democratic
Platform Committee
By George Gallup
Support of busing as one
Copyright, 1972,
"tool" for desegregating schools.
Field Enterprises, Inc.
Callup Poll
Public Opinion Referendum
Your Secret Ballot
An October I deadline for
This EXPERIMENT IN DEMOCRACY belog conducted by The Gating Poll, Results of this INformation will be of givel help to the plasterm
withdrawal of all U.S. troops from
writers both the Democratic and Republican parties. The reselts pobitshed in year legal newspaper and to 119 example ACTOM
the Batten the *** the Democratic which spent July 16.
2. Bus children to achieve better
Victnam.
HOW TO MARK MALLOT Read each question correfully and then and crow (X) check wark is the square asst 1. the statement that CHECK
racial balance?
neared your *** views simple vering glegtion.
Amnesty for draft evaders
Should
WHEN you HAVE FINISHED. Just teld THE balled put the ******** and stal 11, The envelope Bill be picked us Be rule to
27%
****** the feb questions at the bettern to help us who the ******* of the rele.
Should not
73
A cut in military spending and
in
U.S. bases and forces overseas
PRINCETON, N. J., July 10 - In
Propartion
THE T.S. shorto WITHDRAW ALL TROOFS FROM VIRTAM BY THE FND or THIS
:
D
the debate over the platform in the
1
3. Decrease the national budget for
but maintenance of enough
VILLNAM
THE U.S. WITHDRAW ALL TROOPS FROM TIETNAM " THE END OF THIS TEAR
0
defense?
armed strength to deter aggres
Democratic convention in Miami this
Should
50%
sion
week, the views of the typical Demo-
Preparence
AVOR ML SING HOOL CHILDREN TO MORAK 1.34 BALANCE IN THE CHOOLS
0
2
Should not
cratic voter on the key issues of the
50
An end to the military draft
BESING
DEFINE BUSING MH001 CHILDREN TO A1 RILVE RETTEM RACIM THE HOOT
D
day will be of prime importance.
Increases in Social Security
Propo-ition
10115 THE NATIONAL BEDGET FOR MIJIARS AND DIFENSE SPENDING SHOULD BE
0
4. Legalize abortion?
199,1 KLASED
benefits and taxes.
To obtain the vote of Democrats on
Favor
DREENSE
THINK
53%
SHOULD
major campaign issues, the Gallup Poll
Oppose
47
A Government guarantee of 3
utilized & new survey approach called
job for everybody.
the National Public Opinion Referen-
The "National Public Opinion Referendum" is a new technique for gauging
5. Draft dodgers be allowed to
Jun. In this experiment, which simu-
public opinion which is designed to complement regular public opinion surveys.
Repeal of "unfair" can PR
lates a national referendum. the Gallup
Based on a refinement of the "barometer" areas approach, it more closely
return without punishment?
ferences for corporations and in-
Should
31%
dividuals.
Poll selected one indicator county in
resembles the election process itself and is therefore more easily understood
Should not
(is)
each of the four major regions of the
by the typical citizen. Moreover, this approach can reveal more dramatically
Increased federal spending on
nation. These counties were selected
the relationship between the way people live and the way they vote.
education to reduce local property
6. Make wage-price controls stricter?
taxes.
because each has a record of accurately
Four counties were selected for the current referendum: New London
Should
73%
reflecting the sentiment of its area in
County, Connecticut; Shelby County, Tennessee; Montgomery County, Illinois;
Should not
A
ban on sale of handmins
27
the presidential elections of 1968, 1964.
and San Luis Obispo County, California.
Issues included in the referendum
Replacing present welfare
1960 and 1956. Together, the vote of
These counties were selected because each has a record of accurately
were also carried in a regular nation-
system with an "inconce-scourt
these counties reflects the vote of the
reflecting the sentiment of its area in the presidential elections of 1968, 1964,
wide Gallup survey. Both the national
program" to insure every family 111
nation for the last four presidential
1960 and 1956. Together, the vote of these counties reflects the vote of the
and regional results of the survey close-
income "substantially more than
elections.
nation of the last four presidential elections.
ly matched those obtained with the ref.
the poverty level.'
Within each indicator county, a secret
erendum method.
ballot was delivered to every house-
hold in selected election districts. These
districts were chosen 50 that in com-
For Release Upon Receipt
bination they reflect the vote of the
county in recent presidential elections.
The busing of school children to
Voters Want Say In Selection of Yeep
The four counties selected for the
achieve racial balance is opposed by
referendum were New London County,
majorities in each county. The com-
where they stand regarding the issue
PRINCETON, N. J., July 00 - A substantial majority of V.S.
Connecticut (including Norwich);
bined results show 73 per cent opposed
of amnesty. Overwhelming majorities
citizens (63 per cent) think they should be able to indie their
Hillsboro County. Illinois; Shelby
compared to 27 per cent in favor.
think young men who have left the
preference for vice-presidential candidates in the primaries The
County. Tennessee (including Mem-
On other issues included in the ref-
United States to avoid the draft should
current practice is for the presidential candidate to select h own
phis): and San Luis Obispo County,
erendum. a much closer division of
not be allowed to return to this country
running-mate.
California. Balloting was carried out
opinion is recorded. For example, on
without some form of punishment.
Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans interviewed hold
June 29-30.
the issue of decreasing the military and
On the issue of wage-price controls,
this opinion, as well as majorities in each of the four regions of the
More than 55 per cent of the bal-
defense budget, Democrats are evenly
nation.
almost three in every four Democratic
los distributed were returned - high-
divided, with a close vote being record-
voters in the referendum vote in favor
Following is the question asked in a survey conducted in
er participation. for example, than in
ed in each of the four counties.
of making them more strict. The clos-
late April:
the last national congressional elections
in 1970, and only SIX percentage points
Closely Divided on
est division of opinion is found in
The practice has grown up for presidential candidates 10
Legalizing Abortion
Shelby County (Memphis), the indica-
have the most say in the selection of the man who FHES for
under the turnout for the 1968 presi-
tor county in the South.
dential election.
Democratic opinion is also fairly
Vice President with him. Do you think this practice should be
evenly divided on the issue of the legal-
continued, or should rank-and-file roters be able to indicate
Here is the vote for the four indicator
Year-End Deadline for
ization of abortion, although support is
their preference in the primaries?
counties combined:
Troop Withdrawal Favored
found to be somewhat greater in San
Here are the national results, based on in person interviews
The referendum shows a large ma-
Luis Obispo County than in the other
Views of Democrats
with 1542 persons interviewed in more than 300 scientifically selected
jority of Democrats voting in favor of
counties.
(Four Counties Combined)
localities across the nation during the period April 28-May 1:
the U.S. withdrawing all troops from
1. Withdraw from Vietnam by
Continue present practice
31%
Vietnam by the end of the current year.
Hold Strong Views
end of 1972?
Voters make selection
On Amnesty Issue
63
Solid majorities in each of the four
indicator counties support a year-end
Democratic voters in each of the four
Should
70%
No opinion
6
deadline for withdrawal.
indicator counties leave little doubt on
Should not
30
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Monday, July 10, 1972
On Eve of Miami Convention
McGovern Maintains Slight Lead Over
Democratic Field in Latest Balloting
But No Democratic Hopeful Approaches
Majority Support from Rank-and-File
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
and older. Interviewing was conducted
"
McGovern's support increased from 5
June 23.26 in more than 300 cienti-
PRINCETON, N.J. July 2 ====== On the
eve of the Democratic convention in
The following table shows the latest
per cent to 30 per cent in a survey
fically selected los thes in the nation.
"
Miami, Sen. George McGovern main-
standings:
completed in late June.
tains a slight lead over the field of
Democratic Standings
Willkie's trend line was even more
COMING TUESDAY!
Democratic hopefuls. but at the same
#
(Choices of Democrats, Nationwide)
dramatic. In March of 1940, only one
time wins only a third of the support
of his party's rank-and-file
Rise of
Latest
per cent of Republicans favored him for
National Public On Rebition
"
Willkle With
%
the nomination. By late June and early
In what amounts to a nationwide
GOP Voters
McGovern
July his percentage had climbed to 44
How Do Views of Rank-
30
runary. a sample of the nation's Dem-
#
Humphrey
27
per cent.
and-File Democrats
ocrats were asked to choose from a list
Wallace
25
The following tables show the com-
Compare with Their
of 10 leading presidential candidates
Muskie
6
parison:
the one they think should be their
Party's Platform?
Jackson
3
party's nominee.
McGovern - 1972:
Chisholm
3
In a unique experiment called
16
TO
Mills
I
March 24-27
5%
the National Pabli. Opinion Ref.
McCarthy
2
April 21-24
17
crendion, Democrats in "indica-
Sanford
April 28-May I
20
tor" counties in each of the four
Yorty
May 26-29
25
major geographical regions of the
McGovern's dramatic rise in popularity
Undecided
3
June 16-19
29
nation were given the opportunity
since March is reminiscent of Willkie's
June 23-26
30
to vote in a secret ballot on key
remarkable performance in the Spring
100%
Willkie - 1940:
issues facing the nation.
and early summer of 1940. Willkie's
March 24
1%
The composite results from bal-
vote among Republicans that year shot
McGovern, 1972:
April 12-15
3
loting in these four counties will
Willkie, 1940:
up to 44 percentage points on the ave
May 69
5
show how the views of Democrats
of the GOP convention.
McGovern's dranatic rise in popu-
May 20-21
TO
compare with the platform which
larity since March reminiscent of the
May 26 June 4
17
will emerge from this week's con-
McGovern comes out on top, with
Willkie boom in the spring and early
June 1417
29
vention.
10 per cent of the vote. Just behind
summer of 1940, prior to the GOP
June 28-July I
44
him in the national balloting is Sen.
The latest standings were recorded
convention that year.
On the eye of the GOP con-
Hubert Humphrey with 27 per cent
Results of the latest survey are based
in a survey conducted in late June and
vention in August the views of
McGovern won only , per cent of
of the support of Democrats and Gov.
on personal interviews with 630 persons
closely parallel those recorded in the
the vote of Democnts for the nomina-
grassroots Republicans will be
George Wallace with 25 per cent.
who classify themselves as Democrats
previous survey in mid-June.
tion in March, In successive surveys,
compared with the GOP platform.
out of a total sample of 1592 adults, 18
F
Gallep
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
June 26, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies at Gallup disclosed that the
President leads all Democratic contenders in the most
recent trial heats:
RN
HHH
Wall
N.O.
G-Jun 16-19
47
28
18
7
RN
McG
Wall
N.O.
44
33
19
4
RN
MUSK
Wall
N.O.
50
26
18
6
RN
EMK
Wall
N.O.
47
35
13
5
Davies claimed that these were not final figures but were
very close, "within a point or two". He would not give me
two-way results, but did say these figures would probably
be released Sunday, July 2, 1972.
- 2 -
Also of considerable interest is the Gallup National
Referendum. Gallup will try to interview voters in four
"barometer" counties - New London County, Connecticut;
Shelby County, Tennessee; Montgomery County, Illinois;
and San Luis Obispo County, California. These counties
accurately reflected the sentiment of the country in 1968,
'64, '60, and '56. The interviewing will be done between
June 28 and July 2. The first series of results will be
published July 9. John Davies will not be available before
then but I will try to get the results from George Gallup, Jr.
The questions on the referendum will be:
Proposition #1: "The U.S. should withdraw all troops from
Vietnam by the end of this year. "
"The U.S. should not withdraw all troops
from Vietnam by the end of this year. if
Proposition #2: "I favor busing school children to achieve
a better racial balance in the schools. "
"I oppose busing school children to achieve
a better racial balance in the schools. "
Proposition #3: "I think the national budget for military
and defense spending should be decreased,"
"I think the national budget for military
and defense spending should not be decreased"
Proposition #4: "I favor the legalization of abortion. "
"I oppose the legalization of abortion."
Proposition #5: "Young men who have left the U.S. to
avoid the draft should be allowed to return to this country
without some form of punishment. "
"Young men who have left the U.S. to
avoid the draft should not be allowed to return to this country
without some form of punishment. "
Proposition #6: "Wage/price controls should be made more
strict than they are at present. "
"Wage/price controls should not be made
more strict than they are at present. "
- 3 -
Proposition #7: "I favor a plan which would guarantee
every family a minimum income of at least $2,400 a year. "
"I oppose a plan which would guarantee
every family a minimum income of at least $2,400 a year. "
Proposition #8: "I think the police and other law
enforcement agencies in the U.S. should be tougher than
they are now in dealing with crime and lawlessness. "
"I think the police and other law
enforcement agencies in the U.S. should not be tougher than
they are now in dealing with crime and lawlessness."
Proposition #9 : "Which one of the following persons
would. you like to see nominated as the Democratic candidate?"
(Full selection)
Proposition #10: "Which one of the following persons
would you like to see nominated as the Democratic candidate?"
Hubert Humphrey
George McGovern
Proposition #11. Trial heats among Nixon, Mcgovern and
Wallace.
Trial heats between Nixon and McGovern.
Proposition #12: Trial heats among Nixon, Humphrey and
Wallace.
Trial heats between Nixon and Humphrey.
Unfortunately, there will be no follow-up questions. I
suggested questions asking about the consequences of U.S.
troop withdrawal or defense cuts, but Gallup will only use
the questions as given above.
Davies -til heats:
- n
HH
W
n.o.
close
47
28
18
- no two way
RR
n
MCG
W.
n.o.
44
33
19
Je
16-19
n
mus
w.
n.o.
50
26.
18
not get 2 way
n
then
w,
47
35
13
Release possib Sun.
Memphis - nate Referendum
mass survey
wed 6/28 - Jy 2
Reported on Jy 9
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC OPINION
THE GALLUP POLL
DR. GEORGE GALLUP
CHAIRMAN
GEORGE GALLUP, JR.
53 BANK STREET
PRESIDENT
PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
JOHN O. DAVIES
EDITOR
Dear Editor:
Using a new technique for gauging public opinion, the
Gallup Poll plans to conduct, during the period just before
the beginning of the Democratic convention on July 10:
I. NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION REFERENDUM ON ISSUES
TATE believe that a referendum on issues of this campaign
should be of great help to the platform writers of both parties.
The views of voters on these issues should provide the answer as
to how much change the American public desires at this point in
history -- and the extent to which voters are tending to a lib-
eral or conservative point of view.
As determined by recent national surveys, following are
some of the "gut" voter issues to be covered in this referendum:
1. Troop withdrawal from Vietnam
2. Defense spending
3. Abortion laws
4. Busing
5. Amnesty
6. Wage-Price controls
7. A minimum income
II. NATIONAL PRIMARY ON CANDIDATES
As determined by a recent nationwide Gallup survey, a
majority of local Democratic party leaders (as well as a majority
of the public as a whole) believe that a single nationwide primary
would be an improvement over the present primary system.
Using the new technique mentioned previously, we can accom-
plish this same goal. At the same time that we conduct the
referendum on issues, we shall carry the full list of Democratic
candidates, with "run-off" tests among the top contenders.
Page 2
We plan to report the results of the NATIONAL PUBLIC
OPINION REFERENDUM ON ISSUES and the NATIONAL PRIMARY ON
CANDIDATES in successive reports starting Sunday, July 9.
About the National Public
Opinion Peferendum
The National Public Opinion Peferendum is
a new technique for gauging public opinion
which is designed to complement regular
public opinion surveys. Based on a refine-
ment of the "harometer" areas approach, it
more closely resembles the election process
itself and is therefore more easily under-
stood by the typical citizen. Moreover,
this approach can reveal more dramatically
the relationship between the way people
live and the way they vote.
Four counties have been selected for the
upcoming referendum: New London County,
Connecticut; Shelby County, Tennessee;
Montgomery County, Illinois; and San Luis
Obispo County, California.
These counties were selected because each
has a record of accurately reflecting the
sentiment of its area in the presidential
elections of 1968, 1964, 1960 and 1956. To-
gether, the vote of these counties reflect the
vote of the nation for the last four presi-
dential elections.
The first experiment with the National
Public Opinion Referendum was carried out
just before the congressional elections of
1970. Both from a research and from an ed-
itorial viewpoint, It proved a great success
(see enclosed reprint from the Public Opinion
Quarterly for research details).
Sincerely yours,
George Gallups
THE PUBLIC OPINION
REFERENDUM
BY GEORGE GALLUP, JR.
Reprint from THE PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
Volume 35, Summer 1971
© 1971 by Columbia University Press
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - June 26, 1972
G - Hello, John, how are you?
D - Morning, sir.
G - You mentioned that I might call you today for the results of
the trial heats from the polls which were released last Sunday.
D - Yeah, let me get them here. Will be with you in a second.
G - Oh sure, no hurry at all.
D - Whoever this is, is running pretty far behind. That's all I
can tell, you at this point. He is Mr. Humphrey. It looks like
it's - let me do a little addition here, let's see, 45,46,47 --
It looks like it's going to be about 47 Nixon, 28 Humphrey,
and 18 Wallace.
G - Wallace 18 and the balance No Opinion, huh?
D - That's pretty close, it's not exactly what it'll be, but it's
within a point or SO.
G - OK. Is there a two-way there?
D - No. Not that we have at this point.
G - OK.
D - OK. This is McGovern. He is - Nixon is 44, McGovern 33, Wallace 19,
the rest undecided. I'll do Mr. Muskie. Oh, that was rather
startling. 50% for Mr. Nixon, 26% Muskie, 18% Wallace.
G - Is there a two-way on either McGovern or Muskie?
D - Not yet. We don't have those yet.
G - OK.
D - Here's Kennedy. 47%, 35%, and the very interesting thing here is
13% Wallace.
- 2 -
G - Lower than the others.
D - Yes.
G - Very interesting. What were the polling dates on that? Was that
June ...
D - That was June 9-12.
G - 9-12. And these people
...
D - Wait, oh, oh, oh, I'm sorry. June 16-19.
G - 16-19. Any idea when you're going to release those yet?
D - Possibly. for Sunday.
G - I see. What else is of interest?
D - Not too much. Not too much. I'm sort of clearing off my desk.
G - Yeah, today's your last day, isn't it?
D -
...
sort of a national referendum taking four or five barometer
counties across the nation and doing an extensive, mass survey
of ballots on issues. Very interesting method.
G - I saw the letter today from George Gallup, Jr., talking about
the National Referendum and then enclosing the one from 1970.
I have some interesting questions about it. Where you list the
gut voter issues there? Troop withdrawal from Vietnam, I would
assume there would be just a standard trend question.
D - No, not really. These questions are all phrased rather differently.
G - Oh, really?
D - They are phrased as you would in a referendum. You know, let's
say we were to have a National Referendum on the Vietnam issue,
it goes something like this. Hang on Gordon, I'll be right with you.
- 3 -
G - Sure.
D - - And the people have the opportunity to check one square. They
have the ballot, they are given a ballot and it's left with
them and it's picked up the next day.
G - I see.
D - And we get everyone in a given election district. And in each
of the four areas that have been selected, they are the same
that were selected two years ago, we cover anywhere from 4 to 8
election, districts that in themselves and together are indicators
of that particular county and also that particular region of the
country and have been for the last four elections. The first
proposition is "The U.S. should withdraw all troops from Vietnam
by the end of this year"
G - - I see.
D - And then there's a negative -"the U.S. should not
...
G - I see.
D - And then the second one is busing, "I favor busing school children
to achieve a better racial balance in the schools", "I oppose
...
G - I see.
D - Defense spending is #3. Do you want to hear the rest of these?
G - Yes, very much.
D - "I think the national budget for military and defense spending
should be decreased", "I think it should not " You know it
goes right on, the same wording, it's just that should not is
put in there.
G - I see.
- 4 -
D - Proposition #4. "I favor (or oppose) the legalization of
abortion"; #5: "Young men who have left the U.S. to avoid the
draft should be allowed to return to this country without some
form of punishment, should not be allowed to return without
some form of punishment"; Proposition #6: "Wage/price controls
should be made more strict than they are at present" so on;
Propostion #7: "I favor a plan which would guarantee every family
a minimum income of at least $2,400 a year, I oppose a plan ...";
Proposition #8: " I think the police and other law enforcement
agencies in the U.S. should be tougher than they are now in
dealing with crime and lawlessness, should not be tougher";
then we have, we go on to some choices where we have the Democratic
candidates related to our trend questions, and then we narrow
the situation down in choice 10 to Humphrey and McGovern.
G - Now, I don't understand. What's the choice there that the person's
given?
D - Choice 9. "Which one of the following persons would you like to
see nominated as the Democratic candidate
...
G - I see , I see.
D - Then we list all of them.
G - I see.
D - Now in choice 10 we narrow it down to Humphrey and McGovern.
Choice 11 is a trial heat between Nixon, McGovern and Wallace.
Then narrowing it down to just Nixon and McGovern
...
G - I see.
- 5 -
D - And choice 12 is the Nixon, Humphrey, Wallace trial heats with
it then narrowed down to Nixon and Humphrey.
G - Right.
D - And that's about it.
G - When are you going into the field with these, do you know?
D - Wednesday night. That's why we're going. ... going to Norwich,
Conn., we're sending another one of our girls to San Luis Obispo,
Calif.
G - That's a good place.
D - Not bad.
G - Know it well. So you'll be in from the 28th until when, does
it take a lot longer, or ...
D - Until about July 2nd.
G - Until July 2nd, so over that weekend basically?
D - And it will be reported on the 9th of July.
G - Would it be possible for me to call, I guess you'll be out,
George Gallup, Jr.?
D - Sure.
G - Would you mention to him that we'd be very interested in that.
D - Absolutely.
G - Oh, that's great.
D - There shouldn't be any problems.
G - Are you going to have any sort of follow up questions like the
consequences of withdrawal from Vietnam or the consequences of
defense spending cuts and so forth?
- 6 -
D - No, you really couldn't do that on something like this, it would
be very difficult.
G - I see. All right, it sounds like a very interesting project.
D - Well, we'll see what happens. It worked real well in 1970 with
when they did it with National Education Television, but they're
not hooked in with us this year and we're just doing it for our
papers.
G - Well, that's great.
D - See how it works.
G - Sounds great.
D - Ok, Gordon.
G - Anything else of interest?
D - Nope, can't think of thing.
G - All right. Sure appreciate your help on this. We're always
interested in the knowledge.
D - I'll be talking with you the last week in July.
G - Never hesitate to call.
D - OK.
G - Thanks a lot.
D - - Righto.
G - Bye.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, July 2, 1972
With or Without Wallace in Picture
Nixon Maintains Wide Leads
Over McGovern and Humphrey
By George Gallup
A Nixon-Humphrey contest shows
Copyright, 1972,
the latter trailing by 22 points. With
Wallace in the test, Nixon's margin
Field Enterprises, Inc.
is 19 points,
by a margin of 54 to 39 per cent. With
Wallace in, McGovern's lead remains
New Ball Game
about the same.
After Convention?
But evidence that young voters fre-
PRINCETON N. J.. July I - With
While Nixon currently holds leads
quently vote for the man rather than
The latest trial heats are based on
the Democratic convention fast ap-
which would translate into a landslide
the party is seen in the fact that in a
in-person interviews with a total of
proaching. Democrats must face the
victory if the presidential election were
Nixon-Humphrey trial heat, many Mc-
1159 registered voters out of a total
fact that none of their leading presi-
being held at this time, Gallup Poll
Govern supporters under 30 defect to
sample of 1516 adults interviewed June
dential candidates at this point demon-
trial heat history has shown that the
Nixon. In fact. they vote for Nixon
16-19 in more than 300 localities across
strates vote-getting appeal to match
selection of a party's nominee tradi-
over Humphrey. by a 49 to 39 per cent
the nation. These questions were asked:
that of President Nixon
tionally reduces the pre-convention lead
margin. With Wallace in, the vote
of the rival party's candidate.
Suppose the presidential election
The President's leading challengers.
is 40 per cent for Nixon and 35 per
were being beld TODAY. If Richard
Senator George McGovern and Senator
For example, Nixon held only a
cent for Humpbrey.
Nixon were the Republican candr-
Hubert Humphrey. have registered no
two-point lead over Humphrey in a
date and (name of Democrat) were
measurable gain IfI support since late
survey conducted just prior to the GOP
McGovern Matches HIIH
the Democratic candadate, and
May. as determined by a comparison
convention in 1968, but right after the
In Union Support
George Wallace Fill again as a third
of the latest (mid-June) trial heats with
convention be led by 16 points. Then
Of additional interest is the fact that
party candidate. which would you
those conducted three weeks earlier.
came the Democratic convention and
McGovern, who has not won the official
like to see uin?
Nixon's margin over Humphrey was
support from union leaders, scores just
somewhat reduced
as well as Humphrey among rank-and-
- and
file union members in the latest test
The most dramatic example of the
Suppose Wallace is not in the race,
elections.
impact of a convention was recorded
which candidate would you pre fer
in 1964 when President Lynden John-
The following tables show the na-
NIXON or (name of Democrat)?
son led Sen. Barry Goldwater by 56
tional vote in the latest test runs, with
and without Wallace:
Non-Candidate Kennedy
percentage points in a survey taken be-
fore the GOP convention. In a survey
Mc-
Wal-
Un-
As Strong as McGovern
taken shortly after this convention,
Nixon Govern lace dec.
Despite his repeared disavowals of
Johnson still led Goldwater by a wide
%
%
%
%
any interest in seeking the nomina-
margin, but it was decreased to 36
2-way race
53
37
10
tion this year. Sen. Edward Kennedy
points.
3-way
race
45
32
18
5
demonstrates fully as much vote-getting
Of the two Democrats. McGovern
strength as does McGovern.
continues to make better showing.
McGovern Overpowers
The latest trial heats show Nixon
He trails ti-e President by 16 points in
Nixon Among Young
Wal-
Un-
leading Kennedy by I5 points, 53 per
the latest test. With Gov. George
McGovern's great popularity with
Nixon
HHH
lace
dec.
cent to 38 per cent, with nine per cent
Wallace included in the test as a pos-
young voters is underscored by the lat-
%
%
%
%
undecided. When Wallace is added
sible third party candidate, Nixon's lead
est trial heats which show him
2-way
race
55
33
12
to the test, Nixon's margin over Ken-
is shaved only slightly, to 13 points.
leading Nixon with voters under 30
3-way race 47
28
18
7
nedy is II points.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Saturday, July 1, 1972
Majority of Gun Owners As Well As
Non-Gun Owners Favor Tougher Laws
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON N. J.. June 30 - As
has been the case for more than three
decades. a majority of U.S. citizens -
both gun owners and non-gun owners-
say they would favor a law which would
Approval of requiring a police per-
College
74
23
3
require a person to obtain a police per-
mit before he or she could buy a gun.
mit before purchasing a gun is found
High school
71
25
4
Grade school
to be highest among college educated
67
27
6
households have either a shotgun or a
In the latest survey. conducted in
people, people living in the largest
riflle. About one home in six has a
East
late May. 7 in 10 (71 per cent) say
cities, and among women. Gun reg-
77
19
4
pistol.
Tast
20
10
16
14:
Midwest
they would favor such legislation. while
istration has bi-partisan appeal with
72
25
3
Midwest
49
16
32
20
South
68
29 rer cent express opposition and four
almost identical percentages of Repub-
27
5
Gun ownership is highest in the
South
55
20
35
27
West
04
6
South where a majority (55 per cent) of
per cent have no opinion.
licans and Democratic in favor.
30
West
38
16
20
20
residents say there is some kind of
Community Size
Approval of gun registration is ex.
The largest percentage opposed to
I million & over 83
14
3
gun in their homes. Ownership of
1 million
pressed by majorities in all population
requiring a police permit for purchas-
500.000-1,000,000 75
20
5
guns is also high in the Midwest.
over
20
11
9
12
groups including owners of the three
ing a gun is found among persons liv-
50,000-500,000
73
25
2
A direct correlation is found between
500.000.
basic types of guns - pistols. shotguns
ing in the South and West and in the
2,500-50,000
66
27
7
gun ownership and size of community,
1,000,000 30
13
15
19
and riffes.
smallest communities. However, even
Under 2,500
63
32
5
with guns least likely to be owned in
50,000-
Registration IS favored at a time when
in these areas large majorities favor
the largest cities.
500.00
40
14
22
21
the Senate Judiciary Committee has
registration.
Republicans
73
22
5
2,500-
Yourd to ban the manufacture and sale
Democrats
Following is the question asked and
72
23
5
Following is the question asked to de-
50.000
45
10
30
29
of most snub-nosed handguns. The
the figures for key population groups.
Independents
70
27
3
termine gun ownership.
Under
Democratic platform committee has
Do you bappen to have in your
2.500
66
20
44
40
also inserted a plank in the platform
Would you favor or oppose a law
Views of Gun Owners
home any gans or retolvers? (If yes)
calling for tougher gun controls.
which would require a person to ob-
On Police Permit
Is it a pistol. sbotgun or a rifle?
College
36
15
21
24
tain " police permit before be or she
No
A majority of the people in this
could buy gun?
Oppose
The table below shows the percent-
High sel oot 44
10
20
27
Favor
Opin.
country have favored stricter gun laws
Favor Police Permit
%
%
%
age of households having any gun, and
Grade so not so
4
28
25
for over three decades. as reported per.
To Buy Gun?
All gunowners
61
34
5
the basic types of guns owned.
Whites
45
16
28
28
indically by the Gallup Poll.
Pistol owners 62
No
35
3
Shotgun owners 57
Gun Ownership
Blacks
33
II
15
IT
Propenents of gun laws point out
Favor
Oppose
Opin.
38
5
In U.S.
that since the beginning of the 20th
%
%
%
Rifle owners 59
38
The survey results reported today
3
Hare Gun Pis.
Shot.
century. 750,000 Americans have been
NATIONAL
Non-gunowners 80
16
are base I on interviews with 1540
71
25
4
4
In Home
tol
gun
Rifle
adults. 18 and older. interviewed in
killed by privately owned handguns -
Gun Ownership
%
%
is
%
person in more than 300 scientifically
a third again as many as have been
Men
65
31
4
Greatest in South
NATIONAL 43
16
27
26
selected localities across the nation dur-
killed in all our wars.
Women
77
18
5
About a fourth of all American
ing the period May 20 through 29.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
June 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies developed these interesting
points:
1) The next Presidential popularity figures will be
available June 25th based on field interviewing June 16-18;
2) The Gallup Survey for Friday, June 16, will show
that "the public does regard George McGovern as rather
liberal, but he's not a radical among the public in the
same sense as the columnists have painted his image". The
Republican Party has not been successful in pinning the
radical label on McGovern. Davies says that "in a sense
they (the Republican organization) are hitting a nerve
there (painting McGovern radical) and it is a successful
campaign ploy, but at the same time, McGovern isn't seen
by the public to be radical";
3) The Gallup Survey for release Sunday, June 18
will show that the Republican share of the Catholic vote
today is higher than it has been since 1956. Davies says
that, "and a lot of that can be directly pinpointed to the
President's strong positions on aid to private education
and also abortion";
4) In asking Davies for more detailed information on
Wallace's vote as reflected in the June 9 release (McGovern's
Dramatic Gains Due to Independents), he mentioned that
Wallace's strengths were among Independents in the South,
the South generally, and among the younger non-college
segment of the population. Davies said the sample was too
small to permit more detailed cross-breaks;
- 2 -
5) Finally, Davies confirmed again that Gallup would
not conduct their annual Kennedy-Chappaquiddick poll in
spite of the recent Quayle poll in Harper's, and "independent"
letters to the New York Times, Apple and Wicker. Davies said
that the Wall Street Journal survey on Kennedy was the only
Kennedy/Chappaquiddick poll that would be done unless Kennedy
became the Democratic nominee,
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
June 22, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies this morning confirmed that
the President's Popularity remained high. The results
will be released this Sunday, June 25, 1972:
Approve
Disapprove
N.O.
G-Jun 16-19
60
32
8
The headline will be "The President's Popularity Remains
High," according to John Davies.
Trial Heats were also conducted on Jun 16-19 but said the
results "would not be available until next Tuesday or
Wednesday," Jun 27 or 28.
GS/jb
F
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - June 22, 1972
D - Hello.
G - Hi John how are you?
D - Hi Gordon, how are you?
G - Any luck on those final results on Presidential popularity?
D - Yes - 60, 32, 8.
G - 60, 32,8. And will that be released this Sunday?
D - Yes.
G - Oh excellent.
D - You should be getting it in the mail any moment.
G - OK. What's the lead going to be?
D - Just that it stayed up.
G - President's popularity remains high?
D - Right.
G - All right. Were trial heats conducted on that poll?
D - Yes, but they're not available at this point and probably won't
be until Monday or early Tuesday.
G - OK. Anything else of interest?
D - No, I can't think of anything Gordon. Has the rain stopped yet?
G - Yes indeed. Finally. Little foggy here.
D - Sun out?
G - Well, no. But the rain has stopped.
D - We're getting it now.
G - Yes. Are you going to be in the office on Monday or not?
D - Yes.
G - Well OK. Well I'll check then on the trial
- 2 -
D - that will be my last day in the office until the 26th of July.
G - Oh boy. Have a good time.
D - Thank you.
G - Thank you very much, John.
D - Bye.
G - Right, bye.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, June 25, 1972
60% Approve of Job Performance
Nixon's Popularity Remains
At 2-Year High in Latest Test
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON N.J. June 24 Presi-
R: hard Nixon continues to
7 in 10 McGovern
of popularity following his
Voters Disapprove
QUESTIONS IN SURVEY
certify in Russa. with in per
Factors Behind
A erean in the latest nation-
Sustained Score
While President Nixon wins ap-
on expressing approval of
The latest approval rating suggests
proval from a small majority of Ameri
Do you approve or disap-
Stepped-up bonding. Mal-April
performance in office.
that the President has been able to
cans for his handling of the Vietnam
prove of the u.ry Nixon "
April 21-24 48
44
8
sustain the prestige he won by going
situation, he meets with sharp opposi-
bandling his job as President?
This is virtually the same percentage
tion among supporters of Senator Me
May 26.29 53
58
9
to Moscow.
Here is the trend since the be.
who said t'.ey approved in a survey
Govern.
ginning of the year:
Do you 1/mk 001 participa-
conducted in late May. at the end of
In addition. the proportion of Amer-
N: one sur not talks with Soviet Party
icans expressing approval of the Presi-
Seven in ten of those who choose
Ap-
No
time 111 the 11.24 in Southead
Disap-
Leader Bredeney The figure then was
dent's handling of the Vietnam situa-
McGovern in the lates test race against
prove prove Opin.
Avia has aroughead America
cont and represented Nixon's
tion has increased somewhat (in 2
Nixon and Wallace say they disapprove
3
27
%
cards position the eglont the
nations in nearly TWO year.
late May survey) over the figure record.
of the way Nison is handling the situa-
Jan. 7.9
world. or do I'M First " has
49
39
12
ed immediately after the stepped-up
tion in Victnam.
weakened our Stion?
Feb
17
53
6
II
the President's current relatively
bombing of North Vietnam in mid-
In sharp contrast, 8 in 10 persons
Trip in China
1, larity rating is reflected 10
The results: based on a Feb 46
April.
who vote for Nixon say they approve
March 3-5
56
32
12
In vide leads over his top Demo-
crath challengers, Senator George Mc.
in the recent survey, 53 per cent
of the President's handling of the war.
March 24-27 53
37
TO
survey:
General Nuth Datesta and Sen. the
of all persons interviewed expressed
Wallace supporters lean roughly 5-to-1
Trip to Russia
Weakened
68%
ber H " res of Minnesota as de
to the approval side.
May 20-29 61
32
7
approval of Nixon's handling of the
32
8
Screngthened
12
June 16-19 oo
term at Fs that hear fares (reported
war, while 38 per cent disapproved and
9 per cent were undecided.
Position Abroad
Dn you approve or disapprove
No opinion
20
1.00 111 who GUY George Wal-
Seen 'Weakened'
...e has been encluded as a possible
of the was President Nivon is
In the previous (late April) survey.
The latest Nivon popularity re-
and party candidate.
These findings on Victnam are seen
handling the situation IN Viet-
sults are based on a nearly com-
opinion was somewhat more closely
against a background of widespread
nam?
divided. with 48 per cent approving
plete sample from a total of more
pessimism regarding our image abroad.
and 44 per cent disapproving and 8
Here is the trend since the be
than 1500 in-person interviews In-
GALLUP
EXCLUSIVE
A large majority of persons reached
per cent undecided.
in an earlier survey (68 per cent) said
ginning of the year:
terviews were condu ted in more
These earlier findings paralleled at-
Ap
Disap-
No
than 300 scientifically selected lo-
our participation in the war has weak-
titudes on the specific issue of the in-
prove prone Opin.
calities across the nation during the
ened America's position throughout the
Nixon leads McGovern by 13 points
tensified bombing of North Vietnam,
world, while only 12 per cent said it
%
i
:
period June 16-19.
121 these CONT elections. and Humphrey
favored at the time by 47 per cent, but
has strengthened our position. Another
Feb. 4-6
51
39
10
by 17 points
opposed by 44 per cent.
20 per cent were undecided.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., June 22. 1972
Makes Sharp Gains With Southern Democrats
McGovern Overtakes HHH
In Latest 'Showdown' Test
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., June 21 - Sen.
George McGovern has overtaken Sen.
Hubert Humphrey as the choice ot
Democratic voters for the nomination,
as determined by a showdown test be-
tween the two challengers, conducted
last weekend.
McGovern has registered steady
gains over, his rival in three surveys
conducted since late April. He is cur-
rently the choice of 40 per cent of
Democrats for the nomination, com-
pared to 43 per cent for Humphrey,
with II per cent undecided.
Gains Reflected
In Another Test
The previous measurement, taken
McGovern's gains are reflected in
three weeks earlier (May 26-29), show-
another measurement used in the three
ed McGovern trailing Humphrey by
surveys taken since late April. in which
six percentage points. Humphrey was
Democratic voters are asked to select
picked by 49 per cent of Democrats
their nomination choice from a list of
at that time. compared to 13 per cent
ten possibilities.
for McGovern, with 8 per cent unde-
cided.
McGovern is currently chosen by 29
per cent of Democrats. compared to
In a still earlier survey (April 28-
27 per cent for Humphrey and 22 per
May 1), Humphrey's margin over Mc-
cent for Wallace. The remaining 22
Govern was a comfortable 18 points,
per cent divide their vote between the
54 to 36 percent, with TO per cent un-
other seven candidates on the list or
decided.
are undecided.
McGovern's Gains Due
In the previous measurement, taken
To HHH Losses in South
in late May. a virtual three-way tie was
McGovern's improved standing na-
found. McGovern won 25 per cent. to
tionwide is due largely to Humphrey's
26 per cent for Humphrey and 26 per
ebbing fortunes in the South.
cent for Wallace.
Three weeks ago, Humphrey led Mc-
No Unanimity
Govern among Southern Democrats by
Of Opinion
a 15-point margin. His lead now is
While McGovern currently holds a
only four points, 43 per cent to Mc-
marginal lead over the rest of the field.
Govern's 39 per cent.
it is clear that, with the vote split
Little change has occurred in the
roughly equally between three men,
relative standings of the two candi-
there is no unanimity among Demo-
dates over this period of time among
cratic voters as to who should be their
Democrats living outside the South
party's nominee.
The latest results show McGovern
The following table shows the latest
with 48 per cent of the vote of North-
results of this test, and the trend:
ern Democrats to 43 per cent for Hum-
phrey.
Choice of Democrats
For 1972 Nomination
To determine the comparative appeal
(from list)
of the two Democrats the Gallup Poll
McG.
HHH
Wallace
limited the sizable field of Democratic
%
%
Fr
hopefuls to just two men, with this
June 16-19
29
27
22
question:
May 26-29
25
26
26
Suppose the choice for President
April 28-May 20
35
18
in the Democratic convention this
When Sen. Edward Kennedy's name
year narrous down 10 Hubert Hum.
is added to the list, the race for the
phrer and George leGovern. Which
nomination becomes a close four-way
ONE would you prefer to have the
Democratic convention select?
bartie, with McGovern receiving 23
per ent. Kennedy 22 per cent. Wallace
The following table shows the trend
21 per cent and Humhprey 19 per cent.
over the last three surveys:
The Endings reported today are based
McG.
IIIIII
Under
on personal interviews with 622 persons
C
2
who classify themselves as Democrats
LATEST
46
43
"
out of a total sample of 1372 adults. 18
(June 16.19)
and older Interviewing as conducted
May 16 29
43
49
8
June 10 8) 111 more than 400 scients
April 28 May 16
54
TO
fically selected localities in the nation,
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - JUNE 21, 1972
D - Hello.
G - Hi John, how are you?
D - Good morning, Gordon.
G - Well we noted with considerable interest the poll that came out
this morning showing McGovern ahead. Very interesting.
D - Let's see, that's the one now
...
G - That's for release I believe on the 22nd.
D - Oh right, right.
G - Do you have those - I noticed it was from the poll over the weekend.
Do you have those popularity figures?
D - No, those were figures called in from the field. They were tabulated
from the field and we have 79 ballots in the shop now.
G - I see.
D - But I can tell you that based on the telephone calling that the
popularity figure will be holding up just about the way it was
the last time.
G - Still up at 61?
D - Just about. It will be 59, 60, 61 or 62. Something like that.
G - Oh excellent, excellent. Any preliminary figures on trial heats?
D - No, no. We can't do that because there was a registered voter
problem and so on.
G - I see, I see.
D - You don't rely on any people to do your tabulating for you.
G - I can imagine.
D - What did you do, bring all this rain up here for us?
- 2 -
G - Oh God, it's been here for a week. We're so sick of it we can
hardly see.
D - I mean it's keeping me from the golf course and I'm pretty upset
about that.
G - It's making my suits look like
...
very bad.
D - I won't be down tomorrow as it turns out.
G - Oh what a shame.
D - We had a slight problem here so - we'll get together some other
time.
G - OK. Do you know when the popularity is going to be released?
D - Well, we're going to be - let's see - finishing up tabulations -
hopefully, Monday and Tuesday of next week.
G - I see.
D - I would expect that, unless we get some breakthrough on this
telephone tabulation that we had, it probably won't be until the
following Sunday. However,
G - That would be the
...
D - the 2nd of July.
G - July 2nd.
D - Right. However, if that telephone tab works out all right, it
may just be for this Sunday, going out today, but if you call me
later on this afternoon I can let you know.
G - I'll be glad to.
D - Also, from the 27th til about the 27th of July I won't be in the
office, so you might try George Gallup, Jr.
- 3 -
G - OK. Have you mentioned to him that we talk frequently?
D - Oh yes. Absolutely.
G - OK. Good.
D - Now he's going to be somewhat more reluctant to give you the figures
than I am. But you know. I wouldn't call him too often.
G - No, I won't.
D - OK.
G - All right.
D - Let's see. I can't think of anything else. No, I guess that's
about it. That about covers it.
G - All right. I'll check back with you later this afternoon.
D - Around 2 o'clock would be perfect.
G - OK. Great.
D - OK Gordon.
G - Thanks an awful lot. Bye.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, June 18, 1972
Changing the Pattern of 3 Decades
Traditionally Democratic Catholic
Vote Swinging Into Nixon Column
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON N. J., June 17 - Presi-
Does Less Well
dent Nixon has registered a sharp TT-
Against McGovern
localities across the nation. These
point gain among U.S. Catholic voters
While Nixon holds a comfortable
street t'e 1968 election. as determined
questions were asked:
1964 election
24
9-point lead over Humphrey among
such key issues as drugs. street crime.
by a recent survey in which Nixon was
Suppose the presidential election
(Johnston Goldwater)
rematched acainst Sen. Hubert Hum-
Catholics at the present time, his margin
busing. and welfare abuse issues
were being held TODAY. If Richard
over McGovern is considerably less
1968 election
33
on which President Nixon has taken
pines and Gov George Wallace.
Nixon were the Republican candi-
three percentage points.
(Nixon Humphrey Wallace)
a strong stand.
In this latest trial heat, Nixon holds
date and George McGorern (Hubert
Humpbrey) were the Democratic
LATEST TRIAL HEAT
44
In addition. President Nixon has
a substantial lead among Catholics, win-
However, Nixon has registered sharp
gains over both Democratic contenders
candidate, and George Wallace ran
(Nixon Humphrey Wallace)
made a strong commitment to aid fi-
ning the support of 44 per cent of those
in recent weeks among the nation's
again as a third party candidate,
nancially troubled parochial schools
who indicate a choice, compared to 35
per cent for Humphrey and 21 per cent
Catholic voters. As recently as April,
which would you like to see win?
'Why' Behind
an issue on which Catholics can be
Nixon trailed Humphrey by 7 points
Nixon's Gains
expected to have strong technigs.
for Wallare.
and
among Catholics and McGovern by II
Catholics tend to be slightly more
A recent Gallup survey shows 8 in
In the 1968 presidential election,
points,
Suppose Wallace " not in the race.
liberal than the electorate as a whole,
10 Catholics (77 per cent) of the
N KON was the vote of only 33 per
which candidate would you prefer
both in terms of their political affilia-
behef that federal aid for education
of Catholics to 59 per cent for
Wallace Not
Nixon or Govern (Nixon or
tion and their political philosophy. How
should not only go to public schools
phrey and 8 per cent for Wallace.
A Factor
Humplucy)?
ever. the differences are not great and
but should also go to help parechial
Nixon's sharp gains among Catholics
have been growing less pronounced in
1972 The Year of
The following table shows the per-
and non-public schools.
against both Democratic challengers in
centage of Catholics voting for the Re-
recent years.
The "Catholic Strategy?'
recent weeks cannot be attributed to
Nixon has also spoken out against
Aware of Nixon's growing appeal
publican candidate in presidential elec-
In the latest survey, 49 per cent of
the legalization of abortion. which a
a drain-off in support for Humphrey
tions between 1952 and 1908. compared
Catholics classify themselves as Demo
with Catholics and the importance of
and feGovern due to the dramatic rise
solid majority of Carlolica (6 in 10)
with the latest trial heat results:
crats compared to 42 per cent for the
this bloc of voters who account for
in support for Wallace since the May 15
were found to oppose in the latest
electorate as a whole.
one-fourth of the electorate,
atternpt on his life. When Wallace's
Callup M ryey on THE issue.
Per Cent of Catholles
", ( GOP Prategists are beginning to
vote in the latest trial heats is distri-
Also in the latest survey. 20 per cent
Voting for Republican
label 1972 as the year of the Catholic
of Catholics describe themselves as
Give Nixon High
buted to the major party candidates,
Candidate
strategy."
"fairly liberal" or "very liberal" com-
Approval Rate
Nixon's lead among Catholics remains
%
Indicative of Nixon's success in win-
intact.
pared to 26 per cent among all voters.
Catholics give Nixon about the same
1952 election
44
vote of approval for his performance
ning Catholics to his cause is the fact
The latest trial heats (Nixon-Hum-
(Eisenhower Stevenson)
Like Nixon's
in office as do all voters. In the latest
that Catholics have given the Demo-
phrey-Wallace and Nixon-McGovern-
Stand on Issues
cratic ticket the larger share of their
1956 election
49
survey, 61 per cent of Catholics say
Wallace) are based on in person inter-
vote during the last three decades, even
(Eisenhower Stevenson)
Despite the fact that Catholics tend
they approve of the way Nixon is
views with 1180 registered voters out
to be slightly more Democratic and
handling his job as President. come
luring the Lisenhower sweeps in 1952
of a total sample of 1540 adults inter-
1960 election
22
liberal than the electorate as a whole,
pared to 02 per cent for the population
and 1956.
viewed May 26-29 in more than 300
(Kennedy Nixon)
they hold closely comparable views on
as a whole.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- JUNE 13, 1972
D - Gordon, how are you?
G - Pretty good.
D - We've been having a little problem touching base here.
G - Oh yeah, back and forth. That happens.
D - I'm in and out of this place.
G - I wanted to thank you for letting us know about those releases
last weekend. They came as a very pleasant surprise to us.
D - Well, I wouldn't think it would be that much of a surprise.
G - Well, it's always a surprise to do that well. On a sort of
a further question on that, were popularity questions also taken
on that, Presidential popularity?
D - No, sir.
G - Nothing, huh? On either of those polls that were released,
either the May 26th or the
D - Right. The most recent popularity figure of course was the
61%.
G - 61%. Nothing since then?
D - There'll be a popularity figure, we just sent a questionnaire
out as a matter of fact this morning that will be maturing,
let's see, on June 16, 17, 18. It will mature sometime about
the 23rd.
G - I see.
D - If you're desperately interested in the figures, be sure you
contact me before the 26th, because the 27th, 28th, 29th and 30th
and the 1st of July I'll probably be in Memphis and Los Angeles
...
- 2 -
G - So you're out from the 26th to the 30th, huh? OK.
What are we releasing this week of interest?
D - We are releasing, let me check into those, we didn't send one
out yesterday. It's going out later today. I'll have to check.
I'll be right with you.
G - OK.
D - In strictly public relations form, the story for Friday will
answer the question: "Has the Republican Party been successful
in pinning the Radical label on McGovern?" The answer is yes
and no. I don't have all the data in front of me so I can't
give you a specific reading on it, but yes the public does
regard George McGovern as rather liberal, but he's not as
radical as the columnists have, I mean, he's not known as
radical among the public in the same sense as the columnists
have painted his image.
G - I see. But the title is not "Has the Republican Party been
successful, is it?
D - You know, the Republican organization obviously in the last
2 or 3 months in the newsletters so on and so forth has tried
to paint George McGovern as a wild-eyed radical. In a sense
they are hitting a nerve there and it is a successful campaign
ploy, but at the same time, McGovern isn't seen by the public to
be as radical
...
G - I see, I see.
- 3 -
D - And the story for Sunday, I think, will be very interesting
to the President, particularly, because it shows that the
Republican share of the Catholic vote today is higher than
it has been since 1956.
G - That is interesting.
D - And a lot of that can be directly pinpointed to the President's
strong positions on aid to public, aid to private education and
also abortion.
G - Any regional breaks on that, I mean, is that abortion issue
D - Yes.
G - I see.
D - But I don't have anything yet. I probably won't until midday
tomorrow.
G - OK. We'd be very interested in that because as you know Catholics
are of considerable interest to us.
D - Absolutely.
G - One last question, if you've got another moment, John. On the
release for Friday, last Friday, June 9, it says, "McGovern's
dramatic gains due to Independents?"
D - Right.
G - In that last column, it says, "Wallace leads among Independent
voters"
D - That's correct.
G - And our question is, do you have some crossbreaks on where those
Independents are, are they in the South, or are they ?
- 4 -
D - They are primarily in the South, yes, but also among the younger
segment of the, the younger non-college segment of the population.
G - I see. Any further geographic break on those Independents that
are for Wallace?
D - Not at this point, no, no. The sample is rather small to permit
that kind of an analysis, but we can say that it is primarily
in the South and also among the Independents, particularly the
young Independents. Those of course non-college educated and
mostly the young people.
G - That is interesting for support level. One final question,
we have noticed that in Harpers ran a story on Chappaquidick
recently based on a Quail poll. Did you see that?
D - No, I didn't.
G - Yes, the most recent issue of Harpers has a whole series of
questions on the Chappaquidick incident done by a pollster
named Quail. I don't know how good he is.
D - He's terrible.
G - Is he?
D - Just between us, he's awful.
G - Well, whatever. It shows a sort of an interesting change.
They use something called a Trust Index, and slightly different
questions than the usual.
D - How do spell that Gordon? Truss?
G - No joke intended, huh?
D - OK.
- 5 -
G - Anyway, I thought you might be interested in that.
D - Great, I sure would be and I presume you saw copies of the
Wall Street Journal survey on Kennedy.
G - Yes, I did.
D - That was also done by our organization.
G - Right, I know that.
D - How does that compare with what Quail found?
G - Oh well, Quail asked some different questions that indicate that
Kennedy's trust is up some. That sort of screwy questioning,
I don't know if that's your criticism of him as a pollster,
but
D - No, just the way
G - He asked some really crazy questions, like "44% agree that'in
my opinion EMK behaved immorally before his car went off the
bridge", "He has redeemed himself enough", while, you know, he
goes on and on. "70% were sure he didn't tell the whole truth
about what happened"
D - The one thing I don't think anyone has touched on and maybe
they did, maybe in the article, but many people now say that
you know that he has redeemed himself and that he didn't give
the whole story, well nobody has gone farther and asked "Well,
does that make any difference to you?"
G - Yes, right.
D - Now that's the important thing, the fact that they didn't think
he told the whole truth. I'm inclined to believe that the public
- 6 -
D - is a very forgiving people
...
G - I think so too. If you guys do run down on that, we'd be
fascinated of course.
D - I don't think we will. Of course if Kennedy should by some
chance get the nomination, then there 11 be a lot of that
: .
G - Sure.
D - There really is no license for it at this point. There is no
sense in kicking a dead horse.
.
G - No, No, OK. Well, I'll call you tomorrow afternoon if
you have some more breaks.
D - Very excellent. And I said, I'll probably. be in Washington
on the 22nd
...
G - Look forward to seeing you.
D - I just may have those data at that particular point in time.
G - Good.
D - Maybe I'll stop by for a minute. I won't be able to stay long,
though.
G - Understand.
D - OK, sir.
G - Good, John.
D - Righto, bye, bye.
F
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 8, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies this morning disclosed that
the Gallup release for Sunday, June 11 will contain trial
heats with these results:
RN
McG
Wal
Und.
G - May 26-29
43
30
19
8
G - Apr 28-
43
35
15
7
May 1
RN
HHH
Wal
Und.
G - May 26-29
43
26
22
9
G - Apr 28-
45
34
15
6
May 1
The trend page on trial heats from your poll book is
attached.
In addition, Sunday's Gallup release will refute the
assertion in the June 8 New York Times editorial: "At
best the party must face the possibility that Governor
Wallace, the other prime beneficiary of the politics of
disaffection in this strange primary campaign, will seek
to rally his followers behind a third-party bid. Whether
such a bid would, on balance, take more electoral votes
away from the Democratic nominee or from President Nixon
is an open question. But whatever chances a Democrat
- 2 -
might have to triumph in the face of a Wallace defection
would plummet to near-zero if a convention gang-up on
McGovern sparked a fourth-party challenge led by the army
of young activists so prominent in his dramatic spurt to
the top." The Gallup release will say: "Many political
observers are of the opinion that Wallace will not run as
a third party candidate this year. It is important to see
where his vote would go in the event that he does not enter
the race. The national findings show Nixon benefitting over
each of his two leading rivals if Wallace is not in the
picture. Nixon would gain 10 points with Wallace out while
McGovern would pick up only 4."
Other interesting comments by John Davies include: "The
Wallace vote obviously is considerably stronger in the
South and therefore what help Nixon will get in the South
will be greater than any help that the Democratic candidate
could possibly get outside the South. We find that the
Wallace vote goes about 2 to 1 to Nixon in the South, and
it goes to the Democratic candidate by about 3 to 2 outside
the South. Which would indicate that since the Wallace
vote is up in the neighborhood of 30% in the South and only
about 7-10% outside the South, and that, on balance, the
President stands to benefit the .greatest."
I will meet with John Davies when he is in Washington again
on June 22, 1972.
6/8/72
TRIAL HEATS
1972
Poll
Dates
MUSKIE
KENNEDY
HHH
McGOV
WALLACE
H - Jan.
45-48-7
42-42-11-5
46-37-12-5
T - Jan.
52-42-6
51-40-9
54-40-6
3-20
46-37-11-6
46-37-10-7
48-35-12-5
G - Jan.
47-37
7-10
43-42-12-3
O - Jan.
52-36-12
52-41-7
58-33-9
26-27
46-32-13-9
45-37-12-6
50-30-12-8
G - Feb.
4-7
43-42-10-5
47-39-9-5
46-39-10-5
49-34-11-6
H - Feb.
47-45-8
51-41-8
8-14
44-40-11-5
47-36-12-5
H - Feb. 28-
50-37-13
53-37-10
59-32-9
Mar. 7
47-35-12-6
48-35-12-5
53-28-13-6
O - Mar.
52-37-11
49-43-8
55-37-8
66-24-10
18-19
44-30-17-9
41-38-15-6
44-32-17-7
G - Mar.
69-23-8
24-27
46-36-14-4
46-35-15-4
H - Apr.
50-42-8
54-34-12
1-7
44-33-15-8
45-35-14-6
42-36-16-6
47-29-16-8
G - Apr.
15-16
46-36-12-6
46-31-15-8
G - Apr.
21-24
44-31-16-9
45-32-16-7
G - Apr. 28-
50-38-12
49-39-12
May 1
45-34-15-6
43-35-15-7
I - May
50-42-8
48-41-11
9-10
41-37-16-6
40-35-17-8
G - May
26-29
43-26-22-9
43-30-19-8
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Saturday, June 17, 1972
GOP Succeeding in Pinning
'Radical' Label on McGovern?
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., June 16 - Well
aware that elections are won in the
evidence that Wallace has a "populist"
vital center of the political spectrum.
image in some quarters is seen in the
GOP strategists are seeking to pin the
surprising finding that three voters in
ten with views describe the Alabama
label of "radical" on Sen. George Mc-
Govern.
Governor as either "fairly liberal" or
"very liberal."
Following are the percentages of
A special nationwide survey reveals
those who are undecided:
that McGovern is viewed as some-
Details
All voters
4%
what more to the left of where the
Of Survey
McGovern
34
average voter places himself than is
A total of 1556 adults were inter-
Humphrey
14
Sen. Hubert Humphrey, one of Mc-
viewed in person in the survey, which
Muskie
25
Govern's chief rivals for the Dem-
was conducted in more than 300 sci-
Jackson
65
ocratic nomination.
entifically selected localities across the
Wallace
23
About one voter in five (18 per cent)
nation during the period April 21-24.
Nixon
IO
of those who express an opinion label
Survey respondents were asked the
It is important to note that the views
McGovern as "very liberal,' compared
following question about themselves
of Democrats regarding the political
to II per cent of those with views who
and six leading presidential candidates:
philosophy of the candidates tested
use this category to describe Humphrey's
Hou would you describe (your-
closely parallel the views of all persons
political ideology.
self/name of candidate) -- as very
reached in the survey.
Of significance, however, is the fact
conservative. fairly conservative, mid-
that, at the time of the survey, as
dle-of-ibe-road, fairly liberal, or very
Little Change in
many as a third of all voters interview-
liberal?
Voters' Position
ed (34 per cent) had not yet made up
The political philosophy of the elec-
Following are the results, percentaged
their minds where to place McGovern
torate appears to have changed very
on the liberal-conservative scale. This
on those expressing an opinion:
little over the last I2 months, with the
proportion is more than double the
Liberal Conservative Scale
percentages in each survey leaning to
percentage of voters who had not made
the conservative side. The following
(Percentaged excluding
up their minds on how to classify Hum-
those undecided)
table (with the undecided vote includ-
phrey.
ed) shows the comparison:
Very Fair. Mid- Fair. Very
Target Group
Cons. Cons. Road Lib. Lib.
How Voters Describe
For McGovern
%
%
%
%
%
Themselves:
Obviously the large bloc of voters
McGovern
7
20
23
32
18
Spring.
Spring,
who have not crystallized their think-
1971
1972
Humphrey
7
19
40
23
II
ing as to McGovern's political philos-
Very conservative
II
14
ophy are a target group for the South
Muskie
5
23
31
31
IO
Fairly conservative
28
23
Dakota Senator in the period leading
Middle-of-road
Jackson
29
33
II
29
up to the convention (and later, if he
34
17
9
Fairly liberal
19
18
wins the nomination) that is. if he
YOURSELF
15
24
34
19
8
Very liberal
7
8
seeks to win more votes from the poli-
No opinion
6
Wallace
34
19
16
4
I2
19
tical center of the electorate.
-
Nixon
21
35
27
II
6
100%
100%
The survey findings reported today
show Sen. Henry Jackson of the six
candidates tested to be the candi-
date whose perceived ideological pro-
Coming Sunday!
file comes closest to that of the nation's
voters. However, it is important to
bear in mind that two out of three
1972 - Year of the GOP's 'Catholic Strategy?'
voters are unable to classify Jackson.
Humphrey is positioned slightly to
HAVE CATHOLICS MOVED
the left of where the average voter
positions himself, followed by Muskie
INTO THE GOP COLUMN?
who is still farther to the left, and then
McGovern.
In 1968 GOP strategists talked about the party's "Southern strategy."
President Nixon's profile is appreci-
They are now calling 1972 the year of the "Catholic strategy."
ably more conservative than the aver-
age for all voters, a fact that could
Have Catholics responded to Nixon's statements on aid to parochial
schools and abortions?
assume significance during the election
campaign.
A majority of Catholics in every presidential election of the last two
decades --- including Eisenhower's sweeps in 1952 and 1956 - have voted
Three in Ten Says
the Democratic ticket.
Wallace is Liberal
What has been the shift among Catholics - and Protestants - since
Gov. George Wallace is viewed as
considerably to the right of where the
the 1968 election, as determined by recent Gallup Poll trial heats?
average voter places humself. However,
The Gallup Poll
Now Leads Among Democrats, Independents C
McGovern's Dramatic G
W allace Seen Winnin
By George Gallup
Wallace, 1
Copyright, 1972,
men, winnin
Field Enterprises, Inc.
dependents than among Democrats.
cent of Der
Even during the early period of the
combined.
primaries, McGovern ran virtually even
A total of
with Humphrey among this group. Fol-
Independents
PRINCETON, N. J., June 8 - In the
lowing the Massachusetts and Pennsyl-
1540 adults,
period of just two months, McGovern
vania primaries, however, McGovern
viewed in P
has achieved a rise in popularity
recorded a surge of popularity with
which was c
comparable to the remarkable perform-
Independents - from I8 per cent to
154a
29. This qu
ance of Republican Wendell Willkie in
26 per cent.
Here is a
1940, who came from nowhere that
This sharp upturn for McGovern
been ment
year to vie with Thomas Dewey as the
among Independents occurred roughly
dential cand
top choice of Republican voters for
one month after a similar jump among
the nomination on the eve of the con-
party in 19
Democrats - from 5 per cent to 17
you like to
vention.
per cent following the Wisconsin pri-
Democratic
An analysis of the trend in McGov-
mary.
in 1972?
ern's support reveals the following:
3. Better- educated, higher-income
The follow
I. The party faithful. In early spring
voters. McGovern holds an advantage
in support 1
McGovern had the support of only five
over Humphrey and Wallace in that,
and Wallace
per cent of Democrats nationwide, as
among both Democrats and Indepen-
Democrats.
determined by a national survey in
dent, he appeals far more to college-ed-
mary are giv
which Democrats were asked to give
ucated and higher income persons.
their top choice from a list of leading
These groups vote in greater proportions
Cho
presidential possibilities. In the latest
in the primaries and work harder to
For
national survey, conducted in late May,
get supporters to the polls. Among
prior to the California primary, he is
Democrats and Independents with a
Survey Date
in a virtual three-way tie with his lead-
college background, for example, Mc-
ing rivals. He wins the vote of 25 per
Govern is preferred over Humphrey by
cent of Democrats to 26 per cent for
a 3-to-1 margin.
Humphrey and 26 per cent for Wallace.
May 26-29
McGovern Leads HHH
The previous survey showed Hum-
- Ore
By Seven Points
phrey with a wide lead, winning the
- Md
When the choices of Democrats and
vote of 35 per cent of Democrats na-
tionwide, to 20 per cent for McGovern
Independents in the latest survey are
April 28-
and 18 per cent for Wallace.
combined, McGovern emerges ahead of
May I
Humphrey for the first time. He leads
- Mass., 1
2. Independent voters. McGovern
Humphrey by the margin of seven per-
April 21-24
has consistently been stronger among
centage points, 26 per cent to 19 per
voters who classify themselves as In-
cent.
- Wi
For Release: Friday, June 9, 1972
bined
ins Due to Independents;
Strong Sympathy Vote
r, is ahead of both
support of 3I per
and Independents
March 24-27 3I
5
17
Democrats and 489
- Ill. Primary: March 21
A survey completed in early May
of a total sample of
- Fla. Primary: March 14
is consistent with earlier findings which
d older, were inter-
- N. H. Primary: March 7 -
show McGovern much stronger than
in the latest survey
March 3-6 3I
6
I5
Humphrey with Independents in these
ed May 26 to May
trial heats. The early May survey
was asked:
Choices of Independents
showed McGovern winning the support
people who have
For 1972 Nomination
of 3I per cent of Independent voters,
as possible presi-
(from a list)
when matched against Nixon and Wal-
for the Democratic
lace, compared to I8 per cent for Hum-
Survey Dates:
bich ONE would
phrey.
HHH McGovern Wallace
nominated as the
date for President
%
%
%
Wallace Leads Among
May 26-29
II
25
36
Independent Voters
- Oregon Primary: May 23 -
Surveys taken before and after the
bles show the trend
May 15 attempt on the life of Gov.
mphrey, McGovern
April 28-
George Wallace of Alabama strongly
g Independents and
May I
18
26
22
suggest the presence of a "sympathy
urvey dates and pri-
- Mass., Pa. Primaries: April 25
vote." Ahead of Humphrey but be-
hind McGovern with Independents in
April 21-24 18
18
26
early May, Wallace spurted to a clear
Democrats
- Wis. Primary: April 4 -
lead over both of his leading rivals
omination
among this group of voters in the lat-
a list)
March 24-27 I6
I5
21
est, pre-California survey. He is the
- Ill. Primary: March 21
choice of 37 per cent of Independents
McGovern Wallace
- Fla.- Primary: March 14
in this survey, to 25 per cent for Mc-
%.
%
- N. H. Primary: March 7
Govern and I9 per cent for Humphrey.
25
26
March 3-6
II
II
23
Wallace has also registered gains
among Democrats during this same per-
ry: May 23
Trial Heats Show McGovern's
iod of time, going from 18 per cent
ry: May 16
Strength with Independents
in early May to 26 per cent in the lat-
McGovern's greater appeal than
est survey, and is now in a virtual tie
20
18
Humphrey with Independents is seen
with Humphrey and McGovern.
haries: April 25
not only in his support among this
A national survey now underway will
group for the nomination, but in test
17
19
determine what changes have occurred
races against President Nixon and Gov-
in the nationwide candidate standings
ary: April 4
ernor Wallace.
since the California primary.