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This file contains:
A Gallup Poll news release examining low 1972 voter turnout. Duplicate not scanned. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 12/10/1972
A Gallup Poll news release on campaign tone and spending. Duplicate not scanned. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/30/1972
A Gallup Poll release touting the organization's success in predicting election results. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/27/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing public opinion and legislative policy in recent American history. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/16/1972
Alternate format of Gallup article on public opinion and legislative policy. Text is identical. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/16/1972
A Gallup Poll release on the accuracy of its 1972 election polling. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
A Gallup Poll release discussing the lack of attention paid by candidates to the issue of personal safety in the 1972 presidential race. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
A Gallup Poll release analyzing the results of a theoretical Kennedy candidacy in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/12/1972
Alternate format of a Gallup release on Kennedy's polling numbers against RN in 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting the final pre-election survey results. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/6/1972
A Gallup Poll release on blue collar workers and McGovern. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release examining Democratic Party strengths. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/29/1972
A Gallup Poll release covering McGovern's gains and presenting the most recent polling data. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/26/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information obtained from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
A Gallup Poll release exposing weak college voter support for McGovern. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/22/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "1972 Race Shattering Voting Patterns." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/14/1972
Polling data on McGovern and RN. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
Handwritten notes relating to the results of a Gallup poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release showing RN's significant lead over McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/16/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN and McGovern's polling numbers on various campaign issues. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/13/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: conflicting polling data and attempts to contact Gallup and Harris agency representatives. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/10/1972
Comprehensive voter demographics charting support for RN and McGovern from August to early October of 1972. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Gallup Poll trial heats for presidential elections from 1948 to 1972. Only duplicate with handwritten notes scanned; other duplicates ommitted. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Polling information from Gallup on the elections of 1948, 1952, 1956, 1964, and 1968. Comprehensive figures included for 1972. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Harris polling information on the election of 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Gallup polling data sent form Strachan to Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/31/1972
First class envelope from the American Institute of Public Opinion to Strachan. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/17/1972
A Gallup Poll release exploring the effects of perceived governmental corruption on the 1972 election. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/8/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern's polling gains in key voter groups. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/6/1972
An article from "The Washington Post" titled "Gallup Says McGovern Is Closing Gap, Lags by 28 Points." Written by Davis S. Broder. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/1/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting the organization's latest findings on voters. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/1/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN, McGovern, and the credibility gap. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/28/1972
A "Newsweek" article titled "The Youth Vote: Nixon's Ahead." Handwritten note added by unknown. Page from a news summary presenting information from the article attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release surmusing that RN's wide lead over his opponent could evaporate. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/25/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing African- American voter trends in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/22/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: RN's potential forty-point lead over McGovern and other polling matters. Handwritten note added by Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information sent by Davies. Trial heats for the 1972 presidential race attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/26/1972
Handwritten notes relaying information from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Colson and key voter groups. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Page from a news summary mentioning information on Democratic and Catholic voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
A Gallup Poll release presenting opinions on wage-price controls. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: an attached Gallup release. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His Campaign." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/14/1972
From Haldeman to MacGregor RE: important information from a recent Gallup poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His Campaign." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/14/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young voter trends. Handwritten note added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/10/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from before July 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information obtained from Gallup by Tom Benham. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
Note from the Gallup organization to periodical editors RE: the organization's next release. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's latest polling loss. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/20/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic voter registration. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/13/1972
A Gallup Poll release displaying results of a poll on Vietnamese government. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/3/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon Widens Lead Over McGovern In Latest Test." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from before July 1972. Polling figures from previous presidential elections attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1972
Transcript of a telephone coversation between Strachan and a Gallup organization secretary. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/28/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/29/1972
Polling figures obtained by Gallup during presidential election years from 1948 to 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146120
label
WHSF: Contested, 43-4
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146120
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 43-4
description
This file contains:
A Gallup Poll news release examining low 1972 voter turnout. Duplicate not scanned. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 12/10/1972
A Gallup Poll news release on campaign tone and spending. Duplicate not scanned. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/30/1972
A Gallup Poll release touting the organization's success in predicting election results. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/27/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing public opinion and legislative policy in recent American history. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/16/1972
Alternate format of Gallup article on public opinion and legislative policy. Text is identical. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/16/1972
A Gallup Poll release on the accuracy of its 1972 election polling. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
A Gallup Poll release discussing the lack of attention paid by candidates to the issue of personal safety in the 1972 presidential race. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
A Gallup Poll release analyzing the results of a theoretical Kennedy candidacy in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/12/1972
Alternate format of a Gallup release on Kennedy's polling numbers against RN in 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting the final pre-election survey results. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/6/1972
A Gallup Poll release on blue collar workers and McGovern. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 11/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release examining Democratic Party strengths. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/29/1972
A Gallup Poll release covering McGovern's gains and presenting the most recent polling data. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/26/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information obtained from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/21/1972
A Gallup Poll release exposing weak college voter support for McGovern. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/22/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "1972 Race Shattering Voting Patterns." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/19/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information from Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/17/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/14/1972
Polling data on McGovern and RN. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/14/1972
Handwritten notes relating to the results of a Gallup poll. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release showing RN's significant lead over McGovern. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/16/1972
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN and McGovern's polling numbers on various campaign issues. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/13/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 10 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/14/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: conflicting polling data and attempts to contact Gallup and Harris agency representatives. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/6/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/10/1972
Comprehensive voter demographics charting support for RN and McGovern from August to early October of 1972. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Gallup Poll trial heats for presidential elections from 1948 to 1972. Only duplicate with handwritten notes scanned; other duplicates ommitted. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Polling information from Gallup on the elections of 1948, 1952, 1956, 1964, and 1968. Comprehensive figures included for 1972. Handwritten notes added by unknown. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Harris polling information on the election of 1972. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Gallup polling data sent form Strachan to Higby. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/31/1972
First class envelope from the American Institute of Public Opinion to Strachan. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 7/17/1972
A Gallup Poll release exploring the effects of perceived governmental corruption on the 1972 election. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/8/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern's polling gains in key voter groups. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/6/1972
An article from "The Washington Post" titled "Gallup Says McGovern Is Closing Gap, Lags by 28 Points." Written by Davis S. Broder. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newspaper], 10/1/1972
A Gallup Poll release presenting the organization's latest findings on voters. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 10/1/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN, McGovern, and the credibility gap. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/28/1972
A "Newsweek" article titled "The Youth Vote: Nixon's Ahead." Handwritten note added by unknown. Page from a news summary presenting information from the article attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 10/2/1972
A Gallup Poll release surmusing that RN's wide lead over his opponent could evaporate. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/25/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing African- American voter trends in 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/22/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: RN's potential forty-point lead over McGovern and other polling matters. Handwritten note added by Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/13/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], no date
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information sent by Davies. Trial heats for the 1972 presidential race attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/26/1972
Handwritten notes relaying information from Davies. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Handwritten notes on Colson and key voter groups. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
Page from a news summary mentioning information on Democratic and Catholic voters. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date
A Gallup Poll release presenting opinions on wage-price controls. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/17/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: an attached Gallup release. Handwritten notes added by multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His Campaign." 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/14/1972
From Haldeman to MacGregor RE: important information from a recent Gallup poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/12/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His Campaign." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/14/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young voter trends. Handwritten note added by unknown. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/10/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from before July 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling information obtained from Gallup by Tom Benham. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/6/1972
Note from the Gallup organization to periodical editors RE: the organization's next release. 1 pg. [Subject: Domestic Policy] [Other Document], no date
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's latest polling loss. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/20/1972
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic voter registration. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/13/1972
A Gallup Poll release displaying results of a poll on Vietnamese government. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 9/3/1972
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon Widens Lead Over McGovern In Latest Test." 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Newsletter], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: attached documents. 1 pg. [Subject: White House Staff] [Other Document], 8/30/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from before July 1972. Polling figures from previous presidential elections attached. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/30/1972
Transcript of a telephone coversation between Strachan and a Gallup organization secretary. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/28/1972
Transcript of a telephone conversation between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], 8/29/1972
Polling figures obtained by Gallup during presidential election years from 1948 to 1972. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
12/10/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll news release examining low
1972 voter turnout. Duplicate not scanned. 3
pgs.
43
4
11/30/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll news release on campaign
tone and spending. Duplicate not scanned. 3
pgs.
43
4
11/27/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release touting the
organization's success in predicting election
results. Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs.
43
4
11/16/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release comparing public
opinion and legislative policy in recent
American history. Duplicates not scanned. 1
pg.
43
4
11/16/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
Alternate format of Gallup article on public
opinion and legislative policy. Text is
identical. 3 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release on the accuracy of its
1972 election polling. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release discussing the lack of
attention paid by candidates to the issue of
personal safety in the 1972 presidential race.
Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs.
43
4
11/12/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing the results
of a theoretical Kennedy candidacy in 1972.
1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 1 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
11/12/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
Alternate format of a Gallup release on
Kennedy's polling numbers against RN in
1972. 3 pgs.
43
4
11/6/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release presenting the final
pre-election survey results. Duplicates not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
11/2/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release on blue collar workers
and McGovern. Duplicates not scanned. 1
pg.
43
4
10/29/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release examining Democratic
Party strengths. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/26/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release covering McGovern's
gains and presenting the most recent polling
data. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/21/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling
information obtained from Davies. 2 pgs.
43
4
10/22/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release exposing weak college
voter support for McGovern. Duplicates not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/19/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "1972 Race
Shattering Voting Patterns." Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/17/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling
information from Davies. 2 pgs.
43
4
10/14/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten
notes added by unknown. 14 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Polling data on McGovern and RN.
Handwritten notes added by unknown. 1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 2 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
10/14/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release
of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg.
43
4
10/14/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: the release
of new Gallup polling data. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes relating to the results of a
Gallup poll. 2 pgs.
43
4
10/16/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release showing RN's
significant lead over McGovern. 2 pgs.
43
4
10/13/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release comparing RN and
McGovern's polling numbers on various
campaign issues. Duplicate not scanned. 1
pg.
43
4
10/14/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. Handwritten
notes added by unknown. 10 pgs.
43
4
10/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: conflicting
polling data and attempts to contact Gallup
and Harris agency representatives. 1 pg.
43
4
10/10/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 2 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Comprehensive voter demographics charting
support for RN and McGovern from August
to early October of 1972. Duplicate not
scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Gallup Poll trial heats for presidential
elections from 1948 to 1972. Only duplicate
with handwritten notes scanned; other
duplicates ommitted. 2 pgs.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 3 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Polling information from Gallup on the
elections of 1948, 1952, 1956, 1964, and
1968. Comprehensive figures included for
1972. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. 12 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Harris polling information on the election of
1972. 3 pgs.
43
4
8/31/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Gallup polling data sent form Strachan to
Higby. 2 pgs.
43
4
7/17/1972
Campaign
Other Document
First class envelope from the American
Institute of Public Opinion to Strachan. 1 pg.
43
4
10/8/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release exploring the effects
of perceived governmental corruption on the
1972 election. Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/6/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing McGovern's
polling gains in key voter groups.
Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
10/1/1972
Campaign
Newspaper
An article from "The Washington Post"
titled "Gallup Says McGovern Is Closing
Gap, Lags by 28 Points." Written by Davis
S. Broder. 1 pg.
43
4
10/1/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release presenting the
organization's latest findings on voters.
Duplicate not scanned. 2 pgs.
43
4
9/28/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing RN,
McGovern, and the credibility gap.
Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 4 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
10/2/1972
Campaign
Other Document
A "Newsweek" article titled "The Youth
Vote: Nixon's Ahead." Handwritten note
added by unknown. Page from a news
summary presenting information from the
article attached. 4 pgs.
43
4
9/25/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release surmusing that RN's
wide lead over his opponent could
evaporate. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. Duplicates not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
9/22/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing African-
American voter trends in 1972. 1 pg.
43
4
9/13/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: RN's
potential forty-point lead over McGovern
and other polling matters. Handwritten note
added by Higby. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young
voters. 1 pg.
43
4
8/26/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling
information sent by Davies. Trial heats for
the 1972 presidential race attached. 2 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes relaying information from
Davies. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Handwritten notes on Colson and key voter
groups. 1 pg.
43
4
Campaign
Memo
Page from a news summary mentioning
information on Democratic and Catholic
voters. 1 pg.
43
4
9/17/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release presenting opinions on
wage-price controls. Duplicate not scanned.
1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 5 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
9/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: an attached
Gallup release. Handwritten notes added by
multiple unknown individuals. 1 pg.
43
4
9/14/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million
McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His
Campaign." 2 pgs.
43
4
9/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Haldeman to MacGregor RE:
important information from a recent Gallup
poll. 1 pg.
43
4
9/14/1972
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "Five Million
McGovern Backers Willing to Work in His
Campaign." Duplicate not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
9/10/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing young voter
trends. Handwritten note added by
unknown. 3 pgs.
43
4
8/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from
before July 1972. 1 pg.
43
4
9/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: polling
information obtained from Gallup by Tom
Benham. 1 pg.
43
4
Domestic Policy
Other Document
Note from the Gallup organization to
periodical editors RE: the organization's next
release. 1 pg.
43
4
8/20/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release charting McGovern's
latest polling loss. 1 pg.
43
4
8/13/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release analyzing Democratic
voter registration. 1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 6 of 7
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
43
4
9/3/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release displaying results of a
poll on Vietnamese government. Duplicate
not scanned. 1 pg.
43
4
8/30/1972
Campaign
Newsletter
A Gallup Poll release titled "Nixon Widens
Lead Over McGovern In Latest Test." 1 pg.
43
4
8/30/1972
White House Staff
Other Document
From Strachan to Higby RE: attached
documents. 1 pg.
43
4
8/30/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Higby RE: trial heats from
before July 1972. Polling figures from
previous presidential elections attached. 2
pgs.
43
4
8/28/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone coversation
between Strachan and a Gallup organization
secretary. 1 pg.
43
4
8/29/1972
Campaign
Other Document
Transcript of a telephone conversation
between Strachan and Davies. 4 pgs.
43
4
Campaign
Other Document
Polling figures obtained by Gallup during
presidential election years from 1948 to
1972. 1 pg.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Page 7 of 7
THE GALLUP POLL
Release SUNDAY, Dec. 10, 1972
Gallup Post-Election Analysis
SURVEY EXAMINES REASONS FOR LOWEST
TURNOUT RATE SINCE 1948 ELECTION
By George Gallup
Copyright 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Republication in whole or part strictly prohibited, except with
written consent of the copyright holders.
PRINCETON, N.J., Dec. 9 -Nearly complete election
returns indicate that only about half of those of voting age in the
U.S. (54.5 per cent) cast ballots in the presidential election in
November. This represents the lowest voter turnout percentage since
1948 when 52 per cent cast a ballot.
A Gallup post-election survey sheds light on the
reasons why voter turnout in the U.S. on Nov. 7 was the lowest it
has been in nearly a quarter century, and why the U.S. consistently
has a poorer voting record than any other major democracy in the
world.
One of the survey questions sought to determine the
reasons non-voters themselves offer for not participating. Nearly
four in ten indicate that they just did not bother to register or
that they were prevented from doing so by residence requirements.
Nearly a third of non-voters reported that they "sat it
out" because of a lack of interest in politics, while another 10 per
cent indicated their belief that they did not have a good choice of
presidential candidates.
Here is the full table of reasons given by non-voters:
(MORE)
The Gallup Poll -- Release Sunday, Dec. 10
Page 2
REASONS NON-VOTERS GIVE
FOR NOT VOTING IN 1972
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Didn't bother to register or
prevented from registering by
residence requirements
38%
Not interested in politics
28
Didn't like either candidate
10
Sick or disabled
10
Could not leave job or working
two shifts
7
Away from home/traveling
7
Total, non-voters
100%
As the above table indicates, only a small proportion
of non-voters appear to have a reasonably legitimate excuse for not
voting. According to their own testimony, the large majority of
non-voters could have voted if they had made an extra effort to
register and vote.
REGISTRATION SYSTEM
BLAMED IN PART
Some political observers blame the low turnout in this
country in part on our registration system. A recent editorial in
the New York Times pointed out that "many towns and cities allow
registration only a few days a month and then only for a few hours
and often at inconvenient places.' "
Gallup surveys indicate that approximately eight
persons in ten were registered to vote as of the time of this year's
presidential contest. But among citizens 18 to 30 years old, the
proportion registered to vote was only about six in ten.
On the brighter side, the proportion of women registered
to vote just prior to this year's election about equalled the
proportion among men. In addition, the differences in registration on
the basis of educational attainment was less marked in this campaign
than it has been previously. This year, three persons in four among
persons with only a grade-school background were registered to vote.
(MORE)
The Gallup Poll -- Release Sunday, Dec. 10
Page 3
Post-election analysis further indicates that voters
had settled on a candidate far sooner this year than was the case in
the previous presidential campaign in 1968.
This year only about one voter in 11 said that he had
not made up his mind until sometime during the last two weeks of the
campaign, a finding which was reflected in Gallup Poll trial heats
showing little change in the standings from late September.
In sharp contrast, as many as a fourth of the voters in
1968 had not made up their minds until sometime during the final two
weeks of that year's presidential campaign.
SIX IN TEN
'SPLIT' TICKETS
As might be expected by the heavy defection among
Democrats this year, ticket-splitting was common. As many as six
voters in 10 said they split their tickets and voted for the candi-
dates of different parties for the various political offices.
The results reported today are based on in-person
interviews with 1,462 adults, 18 and older, interviewed in more than
300 scientifically selected localities across the nation during the
period Nov. 10-13.
The following table shows the percentage of the popula-
tion voting in presidential elections since 1920 when women became
eligible to vote:
VOTER TURNOUT IN U.S. IN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
1920
44%
1924
44
1928
52
1932
53
1936
57
1940
59
1944
54
1948
52
1952
63
1956
60
1960
64
1964
62
1968
61
1972 (to date)
54.5
From PUBLISHERS-HALL SYNDICATE, 401 North Wabash, Chicago, Ill. 60611
THE GALLUP POLL
Release on receipt
Dispatched 11/27/72
GALLUP-AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS
SCORE BULLS-EYES IN ELECTIONS
IN FIVE NATIONS
PRINCETON, N.J., Nov. 00 In a period of less than
three months, Gallup-affiliated survey organizations in four nations
besides the U.S. scored spectacular successes in estimating the
outcome of national elections in these nations.
EMNID, the West German Gallup affiliate, was within one
percentage point in its final pre-election estimate of the vote for
the SPD and CDU/CSU parties in the recent election in that country.
Here is the comparison:
WEST GERMANY
Gallup-
Election
Germany
Results
SPD
46.2%
45.9%
CDU/CSU
45.3
44.8
F.D.P.
6.5
8.4
Sonstige Parteien
2.0
1.0
The Canadian Institute of Public Opinion was also right
on target in estimating the popular vote in the recent national
election in that country, as seen in the following table:
CANADA
Gallup-
Election
Canada
Results
Liberals
39%
39%
Conservatives
33
35
NDP
21
18
Other
7
8
In October, voters in Norway and Denmark voted in
national referenda on joining the Common Market. Here is a comparison
of the actual vote with survey results for each country, as reported
by the Norwegian Gallup Institute. The comparison provides still
further evidence that scientifically conducted public opinion surveys
on referendum issues can be as accurate as surveys on candidates:
(MORE)
The Gallup Poll -- Bulls-Eyes in Elections
Page 2
NORWAY
Gallup-
Election
Norway
Results
Yes (favor joining)
47.9%
46.51%
No
52.1
53.49
DENMARK
Yes
64/65%
63.44%
No
35/36
36.56
And in the U.S., the Gallup Poll's final 1972 pre-
-election estimate was within two-tenths of a percentage point of
Nixon's share of the major party vote, as seen below:
U.S.A.
Gallup-
Election
U.S.A.
Results
(to date)
Nixon
62%
61.8%
McGovern
38
38.2
From PUBLISHERS-HALL SYNDICATE
401 North Wabash Avenue
Chicago, Illinois 60611
THE GALLUP POLL
Release THURSDAY, Nov. 30, 1972
Public Hits 'Mudslinging,' High
Costs of 1972 Presidential Race
By George Gallup
Copyright 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. All rights
reserved. Republication in whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright holders.
PRINCETON, N.J., Nov. 29--Seven in ten Americans would
like to see changes in the way political campaigns are presently
conducted. Leading the list of gripes are the high costs of campaigns
and "too much mudslinging."
Next on the list of sought-for changes are "a greater
discussion and definition of the issues" and a shorter campaign.
The following comments reveal the mood of the public
regarding the race for the presidency which, starting with the first
primary election, consumed the better part of the year.
"Presidential campaigns usually start out on a fairly
high level, but by the end of the campaign the race has degenerated,
with desperate remarks and meaningless insults tossed about freely."
These were the thoughts of a young engineer from Colorado.
A 51-year-old building superintendent from Iowa thinks
there is room for improvement in the way campaigns are conducted,
but confesses that he finds them entertaining-- 'the endless round of
charges and countercharges--it's better than a circus."
A 42-year-old railroad supervisor from Chicago expresses
a common view: "Campaigns cost too much--they hold good candidates
back. The man who gets elected is not necessarily the best man--he's
often the one who's got more money."
BEHIND WIDESPREAD
APATHY THIS YEAR?
To a certain extent, the widespread voter apathy
recorded this year can be charged against the lengthiness of the
presidential campaign and the way it was conducted. Voter turnout on
Nov. 7 was the lowest it has been since 1948. The percentage of
election night TV viewers was down sharply from the percentage
recorded in 1968.
(MORE)
The Gallup Poll -- Release Thursday, Nov. 30
Page 2
7 IN 10 FAVOR LAW
TO LIMIT SPENDING
In the same survey, persons were asked specifically
about a proposal for a law which would put a limit on the total amount
of money that can be spent for or by a candidate in his campaign for
public office.
Seven in ten (71 per cent) say they would favor such a
law, 18 per cent are opposed, while another 11 per cent do not
express an opinion.
Basic in the thinking of many Americans is the belief
that every person should have an equal chance to run for office and
that money should not be a controlling factor.
Although present laws are designed to control the amount
that a person can contribute to a campaign, these laws can be avoided
or evaded in many different ways.
It is estimated that approximately $100 million was
spent by presidential candidates in the presidential campaign this
year, including $9 million on the Democratic and Republican
conventions.
PUBLIC HAS LONG
FAVORED OVERHAUL
The U.S. public has long favored a complete overhaul of
the American electoral system, including a nationwide primary to
select candidates and abandonment of the Electoral College. The
public's will in terms of changes in the electoral process has been
heeded only in regard to lowering the voting age requirement to 18.
In a survey conducted three years prior to the Supreme Court's
decision, two adults in every three favored enfranchisement of 18, 19
and 20-year-olds.
In a Gallup survey reported last spring, 72 per cent of
persons interviewed said they favored the selection of presidential
candidates in a nationwide primary election instead of by political
party conventions as at present. The proposal found bipartisan
approval.
(MORE)
The Gallup Poll -- Release Thursday, Nov. 30
Page 3
Majorities in every survey--as long ago as 1948--have
either favored abandonment of the present Electoral College system or
changing it to make it reflect more accurately the popular vote
sentiment registered on election day.
The latest survey on the Electoral College showed eight
in ten Americans in favor of the election of Presidents on the basis
of popular vote throughout the nation rather than the Electoral
College system. The latter system makes it possible for a candidate
to win even though he runs behind in the popular vote total.
SHORTEN
CAMPAIGNS?
The electorate would also Like to see another basic
change in the electoral process--cutting the 10-week campaign period
in half. Six in ten voters would favor such a change, which, if it
were done, would bring the U.S. more in line with the practice of
Great Britain, Canada, Israel and other democracies.
DETAILS OF
SURVEY
Today's report is based on in-person interviews with
1205 adults, 18 and older, interviewed in more than 300 scientifically
selected localities across the nation. These are the questions and
national results:
"Would you like to see any changes in the way political
campaigns are conducted?"
YES
70 %
NO/NO OPINION
30
"Would you favor or oppose a law which would put a limit
on the TOTAL amount of money which can be spent for or by a candidate
in his campaign for public office?"
FAVOR
71%
OPPOSE
18
NO OPINION
11
From PUBLISHERS-HALL SYNDICATE
401 North Wabash Avenue
Chicago, Illinois 60611
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Nov. 16, 1972
Polls Chart Social History of U.S.
Spanning Nearly Four Decades
Public Has Been Ahead of Legislative Leaders on Many Issues
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
Hopes and Fears of
vetoing the entire bill. The vote in
American Public
favor of this proposal which would do
Hitler's treatment of the Jews.
in December, 1951. some 40 per cent
For 37 years. the Gallup Poll has
much to reduce "pork-barrel" schemes
of Congressmen, was 2 to I in favor
even before World War II. was disap-
of those questioned said that they ob-
PRINCETON N J. Nov. " - The
dealt with social and economic prob-
in 1947.
proved by an overwhelming majority
jected to their husband saying "damn"
final pre-election survey of the Gallup
leins, as well as political. During this
of Americans - 94 per cent.
or "hell" when among friends. Even
Poll proved to be the most accurate of
period the hopes and fears of the Amer-
As early as 1952 the American public
more objected to wives using these
the nationwide polls in the 1972 presi-
ican people have been surveyed. their
approved basic charges in the clectoral
Early surveys on economic issues
same words.
beliefs and their leisure time activities,
system. including a nationwide primary
reveal the extent to which a higher
dential rare and in fact. the most ac-
living standard, plus inflation. have
The great migration to California.
curare in the history of nationwide poll-
their morals and their manners - even
to select candidates, doing away with
their foibles.
changed the American scene. When
Florida and the Southwest was fore-
122 in the U.S.
the electoral college, and changing the
whole manner of campaigning.
asked how much a Lamily of four need-
shadowed by early polls that asked peo.
Virtually complete election returns
Findings from 6,000 surveys are con-
ed to live decently. the answer, in July.
ple where ther would like to live if
at the final survey figures were
tained in a new three volume work just
Work VS. Cash
1937. was $30 a week.
they moved from their present state.
within 2 percentace points of the na-
published by Random House A total
Relief Plans
*. The minimum wage which the
After World War II the public
tional presidential election result. which
of 2.100 pages are needed to cover the
Attitudes toward work and welfare
public thought should be paid in 1938
was asked about amnesty for conscienti-
betters the poil's record of 0.5 percent-
37 years of Gallup surveys.
have changed little. In 1938 when
was 40 cents an hour in non-farm areas.
ous objectors who had been sent to
age points in rhe 1968 election.
Changes in the public's views and
America had still not come out of the
30 cents an hour in farm regions.
prison. By a vote of 3-to-1 the public
Kudos for this achievement must be
their prejudices in many fields are re-
great depression. the public by a ratio
said that they should be freed
shared vati. the 15" daily newspapers.
vealed III the nearly four decades cover-
of 1) to J favored work relief over cash
As late as 1949, one person in
ed. In the case of many issues and
relief. They approved a Pennsyl-
seven could report that at some time
A poll conducted in 1949. asked
the one you are presently
proposals. proof is provided that the
during the year, he or his family did
people in the largest cities to name
PM3 dine which provide the financial
vania law (1939) by almost_the same
sorr necessary to carry out these
people are often years ahead of their
ratio that would require all able-bodied
not have enough money to get enough
their city's worst problem. The survey
to eat.
brought to light that poor housing.
11," name surveys on the issues of the
legislative leaders, who, all too often,
people on relief to accept any job of-
das Many of these newspapers have
take their orders from pressure groups.
fered by a local government, no matter
There have been great changes in
traffic congestion. dirt. high tax rates.
sevinsored the Gallup Poll since its
A case in point is the control of hand
what kind of job.
corrupt politics. all rated ahead of
manners and morals. A poll in 1939
crime. In fact. crime was cited by
for inding in 1935
guns. As early as 1938, an overwhelm-
Just a few of the findings from thou-
showed that a majority of adults
only 4 per cent as their city's worst
ing majority of Americans (84 per cent)
sands of surveys reveal the wide range
thought that it was indecent for women
Although elections prove a testing
to wear shorts for street wear.
problem in marked contrast to the
stound for polling methods their value
favored laws to require the registra-
of subjects that have been covered:
importance crime occupies today as a
during campaigns consists largely in
tion of pistols and revolvers laws
which still are not on the books.
* In November, 1938, nearly a year
As late as 1947 nearly half of all
major concern of city dwellers.
before World War II, Hitler said he
the families of the United States were
providing information about how vari-
Historians of the future may well
ous croup in the population will vote
Another of many examples that could
had no more territorial ambitions in
saying grace or giving thanks to God
aloud before meals.
regard these findings that deal with
and why. A chief interest. however, of
be cited has to do with the "item"
Europe. When the American people
the quality of lives in the U.S. as an
any readers centers on the insights
veto, which would permit a president
were asked if they believed this state-
In the present era of foul language.
important contribution that only polls
polls reveal about life in America.
to veto some items in a bill without
ment, only 8 per cent said they did.
it is worth noting that in a poll taken
can make.
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Thursday, November 16, '72
POLLS CHART SOCIAL HISTORY OF U.S. SPANNING NEARLY
FOUR DECADES
PRESERVATION COPY
Public Has Been Ahead of Legislative Leaders on Many Issues
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
Hopes and Fears of
American Public
For 37 years, the Gallup Poll has
PRINCETON, N. J., Nov. I5 - The
dealt with social and economic prob-
final pre-election survey of the Gallup
lems, as well as political. During this
Poll proved to be the most accurate of
period the hopes and fears of the Amer-
the nationwide polls in the 1972 presi-
ican people have been surveyed, their
dential race and, in fact, the most ac-
beliefs and their leisure time activities,
curate in the history of nationwide poll-
their morals and their manners even
ing in the U.S.
their foibles.
Virtually complete election returns
Findings from 6,000 surveys are con-
show that the final survey figures were
tained in a new three-volume work just
within 0.2 percentage points of the na-
published by Random House. A total
tional presidential election result, which
of. 2400 pages are needed to cover the
betters the poll's record of 0.5 percent-
37 years of Gallup surveys.
age points in the 1968 election.
Changes in the public's views and
Kudos for this achievement must be
their prejudices in many fields are re-
shared with the 157 daily newspapers,
vealed in the nearly four decades cover-
including the one you are presently
ed. In the case of many issues and
reading, which provide the financial
proposals, proof is provided that the
support necessary to carry out these
people are often years ahead of their
continuing surveys on the issues of the
legislative leaders, who, all too often,
day. Many of these newspapers have
take their orders from pressure groups.
sponsored the Gallup Poll since its
A case in point is the control of hand
founding in 1935.
guns. As early as 1938, an overwhelm-
Although elections prove a testing
ing majority of Americans (84 per cent)
ground for polling methods, their value
favored laws to require the registra-
during campaigns consists largely in
tion of pistols and revolvers - laws
which still are not on the books.
providing information about how vari-
ous groups in the population will vote
Another of many examples that could
and why. A chief interest, however, of
be cited has to do with the "item"
many readers centers on the insights
veto, which would permit a president
polls reveal about life in America.
to veto some items in a bill without
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Thursday, November 16, '72
Page Two
vetoing the entire bill. The vote in
favor of this proposal which would do
much to reduce "pork-barrel" schemes
of Congressmen, was 2 to I in favor
in 1947.
As early as 1952 the American public
approved basic changes in the electoral
system, including a nationwide primary
to select candidates, doing away with
the electoral college, and changing the
whole manner of campaigning.
Work VS. Cash
Relief Plans
Attitudes toward work and welfare
have changed little. In 1938 when
America had still not come out of the
great depression, the public by a ratio
of 9 to I favored work relief over cash
relief. They approved a Pennsyl-
vania law (1939) by almost the same
ratio that would require all able-bodied
people on relief to accept any job of-
fered by a local government, no matter
what kind of job.
Just a few of the findings from thou-
sands of surveys reveal the wide range
of subjects that have been covered:
* In November, 1938, nearly a year
before World War II, Hitler said he
had no more territorial ambitions in
Europe. When the American people
were asked if they believed this state-
ment; only 8 per cent said they did.
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Thursday, November 16, '72
Page Three
*
Hitler's treatment of the Jews,
in December, 1951, some 40 per cent
even before World War II, was disap-
of those questioned said that they ob-
proved by an overwhelming majority
jected to their husband saying "damn"
of Americans - 94 per cent.
or "hell" when among friends. Even
more objected to wives using these
*
Early surveys on economic issues
same words.
reveal the. extent to which a higher
*
living standard, plus inflation, have
The great migration to California,
changed the American scene. When
Florida and the Southwest was fore-
asked how much a family of four need-
shadowed by early polls that asked peo-
ed to live decently, the answer, in July,
ple where they would like to live if
1937, was $30 a week.
they moved from their present state.
*
The minimum wage which the
*
After World War II the public
public thought should be paid in 1938
was asked about amnesty for conscienti-
was 40 cents an hour in non-farm areas,
ous objectors who had been sent to
30 cents an hour in farm regions.
prison. By a vote of 3-to-I the public
*
said that they should be freed.
As late as 1949, one person in
seven could report that at some time
*
A poll conducted in 1949, asked
during the year, he or his family did
people in the largest cities to name
not have enough money to get enough
their city's worst problem. The survey
to eat.
brought to light that poor housing,
*
traffic congestion, dirt, high tax rates,
There have been great changes in
corrupt politics, all rated ahead of
manners and morals. A poll in 1939
crime. In fact, crime was cited by
showed that a majority of adults
thought that it was indecent for women
only 4 per cent as their city's worst
to wear shorts for street wear.
problem - in marked contrast to the
importance crime occupies today as a
*
As late as 1947 nearly half of all
major concern of city dwellers.
the families of the United States were
Historians of the future may well
saying grace or giving thanks to God
aloud before meals.
regard these findings that deal with
the quality of lives in the U.S. as an
* In the present era of foul language.
important contribution that only polls
it is worth noting that in a poll taken
can make.
GALLUP AGAIN ON THE MARK --
COULD BE MOST ACCURATE
FORECAST IN POLLING HISTORY
PRINCETON, N.J., Nov. 00 -- The Gallup Poll's final pre-election estimate
of the division of the major party vote in last Tuesday's presidential
election was exactly on the mark, continuing the Gallup Poll's long record
of accuracy in election surveys.
On Monday, the Gallup Poll published the following survey figures
in its 157 client newspapers across the nation:
FINAL GALLUP
SURVEY RESULTS
(Division of two-party vote)
Nixon
62%
McGovern
38
100%
With 98 per cent of the nation's precincts reporting as of this
writing, the major party vote in the presidential election Tuesday is as
follows:
ACTUAL ELECTION
RESULTS
(Division of two-party vote)
Nixon
61.8%
McGovern
38.2
100.0%
The high degree of accuracy achieved by the Gallup Poll in its
estimate of the major party vote in Tuesday's election repeats the impressive
performance of the Gallup Poll in the previous presidential election of 1968.
The final pre-election survey results that year showed Nixon leading Senator
Humphrey and came within a half of a percentage point (0.5) of indicating
Nixon's actual vote in that election.
The average deviation, that is, the average amount by which final
Gallup Poll figures have differed from the elections beginning with 1936 has
been 2.5 percentage points. The largest deviation was registered in 1936 when
the poll correctly pointed to Roosevelt's victory but missed the mark by 6.8
percentage points. The smallest deviations came in this year's election, in
the race four years ago, and in 1960 when the final Gallup pre-election survey
showed Sen. John Kennedy with a razor-thin lead over the then Vice President Nixon.
The average deviation for 10 national elections since 1952 has been
1.3 percentage points.
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: UPON RECEIPT
PERSONAL SAFETY SEEN AS
HIDDEN ISSUE IN '72 RACE
By George Gallup
PRINCETON, N. J., Nov. 00 -- The emotionally charged issue of personal
safety shifted many votes of blue collar workers to Nixon in the cities
of the nation in Tuesday's election. And it was the heavy defection
among this traditionally Democratic bloc which contributed to the over-
whelming defeat of Sen. George McGovern. Blue collar workers feared
that McGovern would encourage a permissive society that would fail to
provide safe streets and cities.
Not only did the candidates fail to discuss the problem of
public safety at length during the campaign, but voters themselves,
when asked to indicate what they regarded as the most important problems
facing the nation, were inclined to talk about the issue of public
safety under such general terms as crime, law and order, drug addiction.
Survey evidence indicates that the proportion of voters who
say they are afraid to go out alone at night in their own neighborhoods
has shown a dramatic increase in recent years. It is especially high
in cities over 1 million in population and even in smaller cities it
has reached an astounding level.
Women particularly are fearful of personal attacks when they leave
their homes in their own districts. As many as three women in four among
women over the age of 50 say they are afraid to go out alone in their
neighborhoods.
Fear of personal assaults is by no means limited to the larger
cities. Notwithstanding government crime statistics, voters throughout
the nation say that crime has increased during the last year in communi-
ties where they live.
Of the two candidates of the major parties, voters thought that
President Nixon could deal with this problem of crime and lawlessness
far better than Sen. McGovern. Blue collar workers who have traditionally
cast their ballots for democratic presidential candidates, by the ratio of
46% to 30% in an October survey, held this view, which is perhaps the
most important reason for their high rate of defection.
The public wants tougher sentences handed out to lawbreakers --
and by the overwhelming majority of 79% to 10%. Indicative of the public
mood was the recent vote in California in favor of reinstating the
death penalty and against legalizing marijuana.
The survey findings reported here should not be read as indicat-
ing that most voters lack a social conscience. However, when the issue
comes down to what the typical voter perceives as a question of social
programs versus personal safety, he is likely to vote for the latter.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Nov. 12, 1972
Survey Shows Kennedy Would
Have Run Nixon Closer Race
By George Gallup
A comparison of the Nixon-McGov-
Prof. & Busine
64
33
3
try. he had serious liabilities which
ability to deal with the top issues.
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
crn trial heat with the Nixon-Kennedy
Clerical & Sales
52
43
5
conspired to bring him a resounding
Nixon successful captured the is-
Ali rights reserved. Republication in
results in the same survey and with the
Manual
40
53
6
defeat at the polls:
whele or part strictly prohibited, except
same sample of voters brought to light
sues upi ermost in the minds of voters
Nixon 'S. McGovern
with written consent of the copyright
Kennedy's greater strength among these
1. A key factor in his loss was. of
- Vietnam and inflation Furthermore.
lixon
McG.
Under
holders.
course, the fact that an incumbent Pres-
as revealed in a recent post election sur-
groups:
%
%
%
ident has a strong built-in advantage
vey, personal safety was a key issue in
Whereas Nixon won the youth
NATIONAL
59
36
5
and can control events and programs
the 1972 election. with Nixon holding
vote (ender 30) in the test race against
PRINCETON N.I Nov. IT In
McGovern, Kennedy held a command-
East
57
38
5
to a degree denied a challenger.
a wide lead as the candidate better
" e after: if Present Nixon's
able to deal with the problem of crime
ing lead with young voter, 55 to 41 per
Midwest
57
40
3
2. The fact that Gov. George Wallace
and lawlessness.
last it victory Tuesday the import-
cent.
South
66
29
5
was not in the race this year added
question arises to what
West
55
35
10
6 McGovern lacked the personal up-
was the outrome a rejection of
Among blue collar workers (the
many millions of votes to Nison. More
peal or charisma of previous presi-
State 13 Govern rather than his party
largest voting bloc and a major soutce
Under 30 years
55
43
2
than three out of four people who
dential cindulates. In fact. his highly
could another Democrat have giv.
of McGovern's difficulties), McGovern
30-49 years
57
35
8
voted for Wallace in 1968 indicated
favorable" rating on a ro-point attitude
en Nixon 2 closer race?
trailed Nixon in the mid-October sur-
50 over
63
33
4
a preference for Nixon, as determined
scale WAS only 21 per cent. By way of
very by a margin of 44 to 49 per cent,
by an October survey.
Gallup survey evidence indicates that
Republicans
03
7
*
companson Kennedy's comparable rat-
but Kennedy held a wide 53 to 41 per
Democrats
the prominent Denocrat Senator
33
61
6
3. Voters perceived McGovern as
ing on the same the was 2.) per cent.
cent lead.
Idvant Kennedy could have run
Independents
59
33
8
left of where ther described themselves
Nison's rating. wi de higher than Mr.
*
Progrer Ne than del Senator
Kennedy's pronounced popularity
Protestant
among fellow Catholics is apparent in
63
33
politically This may have arisen from
Govern's fill Lit under the radding
4
Roman Catholic
the liberal position on issues which he
accorded Lyndon Johnson in 196, and
MeGoven Trial lests conducted in
the findings which showed him leading
59
37
4
Copier III the sendifinal Gallop sur-
took in the primaries in order to dis-
Dwight in 1950.
Nixon 53 to 43 per cent, whereas Mc-
Prof. & Busines
68
ver : med Nivon leading McGovern
29
3
tinguish his campaign platform from
Govern trailed Nixon ainong persons
Clerical & Sales
66
1170 36 per cent but leading Kennedy
32
2
those of the other Democratic contend-
GALLUP AGAIN ON THE MARK
of this faith, 37 to 59 per cent.
Manual
by a considerably smaller margin, 52
19
44
7
ers. Although the Senator moved more
COULD BE MOST ACCURATE
The following table shows the full
to the center on certain issues as the
FORICAST IN POLLING HISTORY
to 43 per cent.
Kennedy Cons tently
comparison of the Nixon-McGovern
emocrats
campaign wore on. he was unable to
The Gallup Pol final pre elect -
One could speculate. of course. that
Popular With
the race would have been still closer
and the Nixon-Kennedy trail heats:
shake his image as "too left" or radi-
estimate of the division of the major
Kennedy has onsistently been popu-
If Kennedy had actively carapaigned
far with the D mocratic rank and-file,
cal." with Republicans making consider-
party vate in last Tuesday S prese
Nixon VS. Kennedy
despite the fact int he suffered a sharp
able capital of this.
dential election .vas exactly on the
party's noticine this year. Ken.
Other,
nedy has disaroised any interest in
Nixon Kennedy Under.
loss in appeal o.lowing the Chappa-
4. As the campaign wore on. voters
mark and may be the most accurate
asking the nomination for 1976. yet
%
%
%
quiddick incide it in the summer of
came to have increasing doubts about
forecast in polling history
vehicled observers have speculated that
NATIONAL
52
43
5
1970.
McGovern's sincerity and credibility -
On Monday, the Gallup Poll re-
Kennedy in campaigning hard for Mc-
which ironically enough were consider-
ported these figures:
East
47
48
5
As early as D comber, 1971, Kennedy
Critten this year. also had his eye on
Midwest
50
44
6
held a clear le. I over all other Dem-
ed to he among his strongest attributes
Final Gallup Results
White House in 1976.
by voters at the time of the primaries.
Nixon
62%
South
58
39
3
ocratic presider ial possibilities as the
The Eagleton incident - when Mc-
McGovern
38
Vote More a Rejection
West
54
41
5
choice of Dem ratic voters to receive
Govern first backed the Vice Presi-
or Candidate Than Party
Under 30
the nomination or 1972.
With 98 per cent of the nation's
41
55
4
dential nominee and then dumped him
The day 5 results reflected to a con-
precincts reporting as of this writing,
30-49 years
52
42
6
In a test ele on at that time, Ken-
from the ticket ------- contributed greatly
siderable extent a rejection of the Dem-
the major party vote in the presi-
so & over
58
38
4
nedy trailed N, on by only 3 percent-
to McGovern's credibility problems.
ocrask nominee rather than an indica-
dential election Tuesday IS as fol.
tion of any GOP tide. Nixon's tremend-
Republicans
89
8
3
age points.
5. The combination of these negative
lows:
Democrats
24
72
ous victory at the polls did not translate
4
McGovern's
factors - the belief that McGovern
Actual Election Returns
into major gains for the GOP in terms
Independents
so
43
7
Liabilities
was "too radical" and a lack of cerdi-
Nixon
61.8%
of Senate and House seats.
Protestant
58
38
4
Although Mt Govern was the candi-
bility undoubtedly greatly affected
McGovern
38 2
Roman Catholic 43
53
4
date of the majority party in this coun-
what voters perceived to be McGovern's
THE GALLUP POLL
For Release: Sunday, November 12, 1972
SURVEY SHOWS KENNEDY WOULD HAVE RUN NIXON CLOSER RACE
By George Gallup
A comparison of the Nixon-McGov-
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
ern trial heat with the Nixon-Kennedy
All rights reserved. Republication in
results in the same survey and with the
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
same sample of voters brought to light
with written consent of the copyright
Kennedy's greater strength among these
holders.
groups:
*
Whereas Nixon won the youth
vote (under 30) in the test race against
PRINCETON, N. J., Nov. II - In
McGovern, Kennedy held a command-
the aftermath of President Nixon's
ing lead with young voter, 55 to 4I per
landslide victory Tuesday, the import-
cent.
ant political question arises - to what
extent was the outcome a rejection of
* Among blue collar workers (the
Senator McGovern rather than his party
largest voting bloc and a major source
- could another Democrat have giv-
of McGovern's difficulties), McGovern
en Nixon a closer race?
trailed Nixon in the mid-October sur-
very by a margin of 44 to 49 per cent,
Gallup survey evidence indicates that
but Kennedy held a wide 53 to 4I per
one prominent Democrat - Senator
cent lead.
Edward Kennedy - could have run
a much stronger race than did Senator
* Kennedy's pronounced popularity
McGovern. Trial heats conducted in
among fellow Catholics is apparent in
October in the semi-final Gallup sur-
the findings which showed him leading
vey showed Nixon leading McGovern
Nixon 53 to 43 per cent, whereas Mc-
59 to 36 per cent but leading Kennedy
Govern trailed Nixon among persons
by a considerably smaller margin, 52
of this faith, 37 to 59 per cent.
to 43 per cent.
The following table shows the full
One could speculate, of course, that
comparison of the Nixon-McGovern
the race would have been still closer
and the Nixon-Kennedy trail heats:
if Kennedy had actively campaigned
Nixon vs. Kennedy
as his party's nominee this year. Ken-
Other,
nedy has disavowed any interest in
Nixon
Kennedy
Undec.
seeking the nomination for 1976, yet
%
%
%
political observers have speculated that
NATIONAL
52
43
5
Kennedy, in campaigning hard for Mc-
East
47
48
5
Govern this year, also had his eye on
Midwest
50
44
6
the White House in 1976.
South
58
39
3
Vote More a Rejection
West
54
4I
5
Of Candidate Than Party
Under 30
4I
55
4
Tuesday's results reflected to a con-
30-49 years
52
42
6
siderable extent a rejection of the Dem-
50 & over
58
38
4
ocratic nominee rather than an indica-
Republicans
89
8
3
tion of any GOP tide. Nixon's tremend-
Democrats
24
72
4
ous victory at the polls did not translate
Independents
50
43
7
into major gains for the GOP in terms
of Senate and House seats.
Protestant
58
38
4
Roman Catholic
43
53
4
THE GALLUP POLL
November 12, 1972
Page two
SURVEY SHOWS KENNEDY WOULD HAVE RUN NIXON CLOSER RACE
Prof. & Business 64
33
3
Clerical & Sales
52
43
5
Manual
41
53
6
Nixon vs. McGovern
Nixon
McG.
Undec
%
%
%
NATIONAL
59
36
5
East
57
38
5
Midwest
57
40
3
South
66
29
5
West
55
35
IO
Under 30 years
55
43
2
30-49 years
57
35
8
50 & over
63
33
4
Republicans
93
7
*
Democrats
33
61
6
Independents
59
33
8
Protestant
63
33
4
Roman Catholic
59
37
4
Prof. & Business 68
-29
3
Clerical & Sales
66
32
2
Manual
49
44
7
Kennedy Consistently
Popular With Democrats
Kennedy has consistently been popu-
lar with the Democratic rank-and-file,
despite the fact that he suffered a sharp
loss in appeal following the Chappa-
quiddick incident in the summer of
1970.
As early as December, 1971, Kennedy
held a clear lead over all other Dem-
ocratic presidential possibilities as the
choice of Democratic voters to receive
the nomination for 1972.
In a test election at that time, Ken-
nedy trailed Nixon by only 3 percent-
age points.
McGovern's
Liabilities
Although McGovern was the candi-
date of the majority party in this coun-
THE GALLUP POLL
November 12, 1972
Page three
SURVEY SHOWS KENNEDY WOULD HAVE RUN NIXON CLOSER RACE
try, he had serious liabilities which
ability to deal with the top issues.
conspired to bring him a resounding
Nixon successfully captured the is-
defeat at the polls:
sues uppermost in the minds of voters
I. A key factor in his loss was, of
- Vietnam and inflation. Furthermore,
course, the fact that an incumbent Pres-
as revealed in a recent post-election sur-
ident has a strong built-in advantage
vey, personal safety was a key issue in
and can control events and programs
the 1972 election, with Nixon holding
to a degree denied a challenger.
a wide lead as the candidate better
able to deal with the problem of crime
2. The fact that Gov. George Wallace
and lawlessness.
was not in the race this year added
6. McGovern lacked the personal ap-
many millions of votes to Nixon. More
peal or "charisma" of previous presi-
than three out of four people who
dential candidates. In fact, his "highly
voted for Wallace in 1968 indicated
favorable" rating on a 10-point attitude
a preference for Nixon, as determined
scale was only 21 per cent. By way of
by an October survey.
comparison, Kennedy's comparable rat-
3. Voters perceived McGovern as
ing on the same scale was 29 per cent.
left of where they described themselves
Nixon's rating, while higher than Mc-
politically. This may have arisen from
Govern's, fell far under the raditing
the liberal position on issues which he
accorded Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and
took in the primaries in order to dis-
Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.
tinguish his campaign platform from
those of the other Democratic contend-
GALLUP AGAIN ON THE MARK -
ers. Although the Senator moved more
COULD BE MOST ACCURATE
to the center on certain issues as the
FORECAST IN POLLING HISTORY
campaign wore on, he was unable to
The Gallup Poll's final pre-election
shake his image as "too left" or radi-
estimate of the division of the major
cal," with Republicans máking consider-
party vote in last Tuesday's presi-
able capital of this.
dential election was exactly on the
4. As the campaign wore on, voters
mark and may be the most accurate
came to have increasing doubts about
forecast in polling history.
McGovern's sincerity and credibility -
On Monday, the Gallup Poll re-
which ironically enough were consider-
ported these figures:
ed to be among his strongest attributes
Final Gallup Results
by voters at the time of the primaries.
Nixon
62%
The Eagleton incident - when Mc-
McGovern
38
Govern first backed the Vice Presi-
With 98 per cent of the nation's
dential nominee and then dumped him
precincts reporting as of this writing,
from the ticket - contributed greatly
the major party vote in the presi-
to McGovern's credibility problems.
dential election Tuesday is as fol-
5. The combination of these negative
lows:
factors - the belief that McGovern
Actual Election Returns
was "too radical" and a lack of cerdi-
Nixon
61.8%
bility undoubtedly greatly affected
McGovern
38.2
what voters perceived to be McGovern's
GALLUP POLL
The 1972 Presidential Race
ELECTION REPORT--FOR RELEASE
MONDAY, NOV. 6, 1972
NOTE TO EDITORS:
The lead for this final election report will
reach you by wire (DPR collect) Sunday after-
noon, November 5. The lead will give final
national percentages, based on interviewing
conducted up to Saturday noon, November 4,
and will include suggested headline copy.
If you fail to receive wire copy by 6:00
p.m. Sunday, EST, or have any questions, tele-
phone any of the following numbers:
Richard Nixon
George McGovern
Area Code (609) 924-9600
Area Code (609) 394-8736
Area Code (609) 466-1216
Interviewing in today's final pre-elec-
strength remained about the same.
the same survey showed the GOP lead-
replacing the recuperating Wallace, re-
surveys. No measuring instrument
the undecided vote on an objective
tion survey was conducted between
Through id-October, however. Mc-
ing the Democratic party by the smaller
receiving the largest percentage of this
dealing with human behavior is
basis.
Thursday. November 2 and noon on
Govern did narrow the gap somewhat.
ratio of 55 to 45 per cent as the party
vote.
perfect. Although the problems that
Saturday November 4 Interviewers
If this sep is not taken. the reader
The data through mid-October are
perceived as better able to deal with
arise in every election seem to be sim
tele; hosed their results to the Prince-
based on registered voters. The latest
the problem uppermost in the mind of
Democratic Defection
has no clear way of judzing how close
ilar to those that have been faced in
for cadquarters of the Gallup Foll.
and final figure is based upon those reg.
the individual voter.
At Record High
3 particular poll has come in estimating
other elections, each contest involves
the vote.
For the Gallup Poll's final pre-elec-
istered voters who are most likely to
Further evidence is seen in the fact
Democratic defection during this
variables and problems of measurement
ti n -: election analysis, about 3,500
vote, using a series of questions design-
that the GOP held a 54 to 46 per cent
year's campaign has been at a record
unique to it. And it is suggested. there-
To obtain a realistic expression of
persons were interviewed in person in
ed to identify those respondents with
high, with the proportion of Democrats
fore. that a margin of error of 3 to 4
voter preferences, the Gallup Poll
margin in the same survey on the hardy
more than 300 scientifically selected
the highest likelibood of voting.
petennials of "peace and prosperity"
favoring Nixon ranging between 30
percentage points be taken into ac-
makes use of at "secret ballot" techni-
election precincts across the nation.
which have been key issues in virtually
and 40 per cent. One of McGovern's
count in interpreting Gallup Poll find.
que which permits voters to mark their
Here is the trend among registered
chief liabilities with voters has been his
It is important to bear in mind that
every presidential campaign of this
ings.
own preferences on a paper ballot.
voters prior to final survey. with inter-
viewing dates:
"credibility." A nationwide Gallup sur-
survey reselts reflect the division of
century.
Problem of
Interpreting
vey conducted during the campaign. for
preference only at of time of the inter.
Trend Since Start
Turnout
Poll Findings
The upturn in the economy during
example, found voters by the ratio of
and are not a prediction. Events
of Primaries
recent months has contributed to Mc-
5-to-2 saying Nixon is more "sincere"
One of the continuing problems in
To interpret poll findings property.
to the completion of inter-
Other.
Govern's problems. When voters in
and "believable" than McGovern.
election polling is that of turnout. It
readers need to take account of the
view at noon Saturday could ob-
Nixon
McG.
Under.
a recent survey were asked whether
every adult in the nation voted. one of
accuracy of the polling organization
usly affect the vote registered at the
%
%
%
they are better off or worse off financial-
Popular Vote Not
the serious sources of polling error
throughout its history
on election day.
Oct. 13-18
59
36
Iv than they were a year ago, 31 per
Electoral Vote
5
would be eliminated. Actually less
The average deviation, that is. the
Sept. 60
34
6
cent said better off. compared to 17
It is important to bear in mind that
than two-thirds of those of voting age
average amount by which final Gallup
Trend Since
Sept. 27-25
61
33
6
per cent who said worse off. The rest
the current survey findings refer to the
take the trouble to vote in a presidential
Poll hgures have differed from the
Conventions
Aug.
26-27
64
30
6
said either that their situation was the
popular vote. not the electoral vote.
election. To identify those voters who
elections be ginning with 1936 bas been
In late April and carly May. follow-
GOP
Convention
same. or were undecided. Even among
To report the electoral vote, it would
are most likely to go to the pulls, the
2.5 percentage points The average de-
if. his victories in the Wisconsin and
Aug.
5-12
57
31
Democratic voters, more said they were
be necessary to conduct individual and
12
Gallup Poll makes use of a battery of
viation for TI nation at elections since
Massabile letts prin aries. McGovern
Eagleton Insident
better off now than a year ago than
full-scale surveys in each of the so
screening questions. These questions
1948 has been L6 percentage
July 14-17
said they were worse off.
states of the union.
traited President Nixon by the margin
are designed to measure such factors
56
points. The largest deviation was reg
37
7
as interest in the election, whether or
of only 12 to 39 per cent, with 12 per
June 16-19
37
10
Third Party
Election Survey
istered in 1936 when the poll correctly
53
cert undecided.
May 26-29
53
34
13
Candidates
not a person is registered to vote. and
Methods
pointed to Roosevelt's victory but miss.
most importantly the likelihood of his
April 28-May 49
39
12
ed the mark by 6.8 percentage points,
Nixon subsequently eained strength
By inheriting the lion's share of the
The interviewing areas used in the
voting.
The smallest deviation came in the pres
Race Has Been Closer
Wallace vote. President Nixon has an
during the bitterly fought Democratic
survey constitute a probability sample
In Terms of Issues
advantage in the presidential race which
Undecided
idential race four years ago. The de.
premary campaign in California and
of election precincts. Selection of
he did not have in the 1968 contest
households and respondents within
Voter
viation was less than T percentage point.
led M.Gevern 56 to =7 per cent on the
During the campaign, Gallup Poll
actually 0.5.
eve of the Democratic convention in
Issue barometers have pointed to a closer
when he ran against Gov. George Wal-
households is not left to the discretion
Another problem faced by polltakers
.r:d July. McGovern lost strength fol-
election than that indicated by the can-
lace and Sen. Hubert Humphrey.
of interviewers but is controlled by a
in election surveys is the undecided
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
lowing this convention and the Eagleton
didate preference questions,
procedure designed to provide an ob.
voter.
The vote for minor parties this year
All rights reserved. Republication in
incident. The GOP convention gave
While Nixon held a wide 59 to 36
is only about one per cent, with John
jective, systematic choice of respondents.
Final figures are always reported by
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
Nixon a boost, while McGovern's
per cent lead in a mid-October survey,
G. Schmitz, head of the American Party,
Some error-is inherent in all sample
the Gallup Poll after having allocated
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Nov. 2, 1972
Blue Collar Workers - Key to McGovern's
Problems, but His Best Hope for Tuesday
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
The Nixon orientation of the
tively recently the Italians, Middle
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
the vote of most other group and Mc-
skilled worker group is explained in
Following is the vote by age groups
and Eastern Europeans and those from
with written consent of the copyright
Govern has managed to win back many
part by the fact that many in this group
among blue collar workers:
Latin countries. such as Puerto Rico.
holders
blue collar people since the start of
are in the higher income brackets. and,
Nixon McG. Under.
Mexico, etc. - McGovern is preferred
Iv depending on where manual world
the campaign in early September. The
in fact, are becoming a segment
In
%
%
over Nixon. Differences can be noted
live. For example. in titles with over
final days of the campaign could see
of the "affluent society." The latest
8-2.1 years
43
53
4
among the main groups comprising
50.000 inhabitants. M.Govern les 2
a continued return to the foid of these
PRINCETON N. J. Nov. I The
survey indicates that almost four in ten
Under 30
so
47
3
what is frequently labeled the "ethnic"
slight edge over Numb In reserved
blue collar workers repre-
traditionally Democratic voters, who
skilled workers have a yearly income
30-49 years
5I
4T
8
vote, however. Whereas Italians lean
ties their inhabirants Nome
10 PAY cent of the torate
represent the largest voting bloc in the
of $10,000 or over.
50 & older
58
35
7
marginally to Nixon, workers with a
holds a wide lead over the Sant 1%
declarate.
Latin background represent one of Mc.
kota Senator
were ror all Democratic
In contrast, unskilled workers prefer
thats are largely re-
Actually McGovern's success in nar-
Catholics Evenly
McGovern over Nixon by a fairly wide
Govern's most solid voting bloc. and
Similarly, the Un vice
Divided in Vote
D.I the fact that Senator Mc-
rowing the cap nationally by SIX
margin. This preference for McGovern
give the South Dakota Senator nearly
tepen Invoices the section of *****
Nivor. by the current
points since the start of the campaign
among the unskilled is due in large
Other factors which bear directly on
as large a vote as do blacks.
in who manual workers reside. Neon
margin of 50 to in per cent. But
has been largely due to his winning
measure to the high percentage of
the presidential preferences of manual
the blue collar group also represents
blacks in the unskilled worker popula-
workers are religion and ethnic back-
The following tables show the vote
holds wide leads over McGovern in
back manual workers to their more
by religion and ethnic background
the Cast. Midwest and the Sourh In
McGotern's best hope for narrowing
traditional Democratic voting pattern.
tion. Black manual workers, like the
ground. Protestant manual workers
among blue collar workers:
the 13 states prisent the We NIB
the cap in the final days of the cam-
In a late August survey, conducted at
total black population, favor McGoyern
lean heavily to Nixon whereas Catholics
region t-f the country M.
prior
overwhelmingly.
are about evenly divided between the
Nixon McG. Under
the start of the campaign. Nixon held
Govern is preferred swer
C.
a with 43 to 28 por cent lead over Mc
two presidential candidates,
;
Lar. Main 111 in M.
The following table shows the vote
Protestants
57
37
6
mar,an of IN per e to 45 For cent
Green among menual workers. In the
# smaller percent
for the total blue collar group and by
In terms of ethnic background. Nixon
Catholics
holds a wide lead over McGovern
48
46
6
The allow ate tables W
and and than
latest survey. Nixon's lead is 49 to -14
skilled and unskilled workers:
collar vote by city size and rega :. of
ratio presidential can-
per cent with this group.
among those manual workers who trace
Nixon McG. Under
the nation:
Nixon McG. Under.
district since if when scientific pull-
While manual workers as a whole
their ancestry to what are sometimes
%
%
%
Nixon M.G. Under
&
3 15 first introduced Only in the
favor Nixon, certain important popula-
&
%
termed the "old" immigrant groups
"Old" Immigrant
Total blue collar
Esechence landslide of 1956 did man-
tion segments within this group favor
49
44
7
persons from the United Kingdom
Groups
26
C,
69
0
C;
5
100 000 & over
4.3
48
13
1'." fail (f) vive the Democratic
McCovern, For example a major dif.
(England, Scotland. Wales. Northern
Skilled
Go
fercure is seen between the preferences
34
6
Ireland), from Germany and Austria,
WASPs
50.000 0.000
15
I'
(
72
25
3
di take a biajority of their vote.
Unskilled
41
50
8
from the Scandinavian countries. and
Irish
of skilled and unskilled manual work-
58
54
8
2,500
52
41
7
Under SCO
67
of
Ma nom were "-) receive what
but
to average vote accorded
ets with each group representing ap-
Membership in labor unions has little
from Ircland.
underster by manual work
proximately half of the total blue collar
influence on the andidate preferences
Among these groups, Nixon's lead is
Recent Immigrant
Tast
group The skilled workers include
Groups
55
as
7
of the nations blue collar workers. with
44
49
particularly pronounced among so-
7
this during the last four
Midwest
55
13
6
decades. t..e current presidential race
electricians, plumbers, mechanics, ma-
those belonging to unions no more in
called WASPs Angio-Saxon Pro.
Italians
South
58
51
S
38
4
chinists etc. Unskilled workers in-
favor of McGovern than non-union
testants from the United Kingdom,
41
world be much doser approximately
Middle East
West
43
48
9
clude assembly line workers, construc
workers.
Scandinavians. Germans, etc. Irish
4: per cent for Nixon to 46 per cent
for McGovern
tion laborers. longshoremen, etc.
Americans. while favoring Nixon over
Europeans
49
44
7
The s-irvey findings reported today
Age also has a direct bearing on man-
Latins
are based on intervey's with 3 total of
McGovern. give the President a some-
25
71
4
Skilled workers as a group are 5-to-3
nal worker's presidential preferences
3.875 re-istered voters out : total
Blue ollar Vote
what smaller lead than than do the
on Nixon's side at the current stage
with new voters (18 to 24 year olds)
Blacks
16
8r
of the race - to the same degree, in
WASP groups.
3
sample 1 1.855 addres, 18 and
is Fluid
favoring McGovern by a 5-to-f ratio,
Survey respondents were interviewed in
McGover's troubles in at
fast as such traditionally Republican
while their older counterparts, includ-
In the case of manual workers who
McGovern Leads
person 11 more ti an 100 scientifically
bine vollar workers. the vote
groups as business and professional
ing the 25 to 29 year olds, vote heavily
trace their forebears to immigrant
In Largest Cities
selected rocalities across the nation our
et this group has been more Auid than
people.
for Nixon.
groups who came to this country rela-
Presidential preferences vary marked-
ing the Trst three weeks of October.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Oct. 29, 1972
Analysis of Election Factors Reveals
Key Strengths of Democratic Party
Gallup Poll Plans for
Final Pre-Election Poll
By George Gallup
In its final report on the presi-
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
dential race. the Gallup Poll will
All rights reserved Republication in
follow its usual proctice of polling
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
up TO Saturday INJURY Nov 4 The
with written consent of the copyright
findings will be reported 111 the
holders.
columns of this newspaper on
Monday the day before the elec-
tion.
the hardy perrenials of "peace and
The results to the two questions in
cent of persons said they had been call-
prosperity, which have been key issues
ed upon (or telephoned ) by Republi-
The sample will be based upon
PRINCI ION, N.J. Oct. 28 In
combination show the following:
in virtually every presidential campaign
determing voter sentiment, polling or
of this century.
Republican
54%
can workers, compared to 8 per cent
approximately 3500 voters, person-
ganizations typically concentrate their
Democratic
who said they had been contacted by
ally interviewed in their homes in
46%
Below are the questions and results:
Democratic workers.
scientifically selected areas of the
efforts on measuring candidate prefer-
2. Party enthusiasm. On an attitude
U.S.
the
Put it is also important to an-
What do you think it the most
The Democratic ticket's chief liabil-
scale designed to measure degree of
To interpret poll findings pro-
alyze there factors which underly can
important problem Jacing this coun-
enthusiasm, the Democratic party em-
ity at the present time is found to be
perly, readers need 10 take account
hive references the issues. party
tr) today?
erges with a slight lead in terms of
the personal popularity of their can-
of the accuracy of the polling one
lovalty, and finally the activity of the
didate.
party organizati in at the grassroots
All persons who named a problem
the highest rating, 51 per cent to
ganization throughout its history.
were then asked:
49 per cent for the GOP. Voters were
The latest "enthusiasm ratings" on
The average deviation. that is,
level
asked to indicate where on a ro-point
the Stapel Scale show Nixon with a
the amount by which final Gallup
hen these factors are probed in
Which political party do you think
scale (called the Stapel Scalometer)
"highly favorable" vote of 41 per cent
Poll figures differ with the election
the present race, the conclusion can be
can do d better job of bandling the
they would rate the two parties.
compared to 22 per cent for McGovern.
returns in the 19 national elections
problem you have just mentioned -
drawn that the Democratic party has
the publican party or the Demo-
3. Party activity. Despite the fact
beginning with 1936 has averaged
certain strengths which may not be ap
Popularity of
pare .7 III the fatest figures on andidate
datie party?
that the Democratic ticket is far be-
2.5 percentage points. Tie lare-
V. P. Candidates
est deviation was registered 111
hind the Republican ticket at the pre-
preferent The latest Gallup Poll.
Republican
55%
sent time, the Democrats are working
Historically, statisticians have found
1955 when the pull correctly point
based on unterviewing in mid-October.
Democratic
45%
it difficult to assess the extent to which
as hard at the grass roots level as are the
ed to Roosevelt's victory but 10155-
J. " Nevon aming the support of
These two questions were also asked
a vice presidential candidate helps or
Republicans.
of the mark by 6.8 percentace
50 per cent of registered voters, to 36
hurts a ticket. But the evidence in
in the latest survey:
points. The smallest deviation
per cent for McGovern with 5 per cent
The latest survey shows that 15 per
election surveys in the past is that the
came in the presidential race four
undecided.
Looking about for the next few
cent of persons have been called upon
effect is small.
years ago. The deviation was less
years. which political party the
by Republican party workers - either
I 7/- WI de Nixon currently
Republican or the Democratic - do
by telephone or in person - while
In terms of personal enthusiasm gen-
than I percentage point, acrually
holds at wide lead in the latest trial heat.
you thank will In the better job of
erated among voters, Agnew receives a
05.
16 per cent of persons have been con-
heeping the country prosperous?
"highly favorable" vote on the Stapel
The prudent reader should TO ake
the GOP leads the Democratic party by
tacted by Democratic workers.
.. waller rational " to 45 per cent as
Scale of 22 per cent compared to I5
an allowance of to 4 encentage
the party Voters ''' better able to deal
Which political party do YOU think
The latest findings on party activity
per cent for Sargent Shriver. Agnew's
points in the case of the Gallup
WHO the nation's top problems
would be more likely to keep the
contrast sharply with those recorded in
current "highly favorable" rating is
Poll which put in statistical terms
United State out of ll'orld War
1968, when the GOP had the lead as
substantially greater than in the 1968
means that the odds are is in 100
in addition, the GOP holds a com-
III the Republican party or the
the more active party at the grassroots
presidential race when it was 14 per
that the deviation should not go
parable, 14 to 40 per cent, margin on
Democratic party?
level. In late October of 1968, 12 per
cent.
beyond this amount
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., October 26, 1972
McGovern Continues to Make Gains;
Race Today: Nixon 59%, McGovern 36%
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
PRINC ION. N. J., Oct. 25 - The
latest nationwide trial heat. based on
interviewing conducted Oct. 13-18,
shows Nixon winning the support of
5' per cent of registered voters to 36
per cent for McGovern. I per cent
for other candidates and 4 per cent
College background 60
37
3
This question was asked:
underided.
all major population groups with the
High school
61
34
5
If the presidential election were
exception of Blacks and Jews.
Grade school
52
to
8
being held TODAY, which candi-
In the previous survey. conducted
September 29 October 4. Nixon re-
date would yoH vote for - McGov-
Underdog Gains Strength
Under 30 years
55
43
2
ern, the Democrat, or Nixon, the
reard the support of 60 per cent to
In Final Weeks of Race
30 49 years
57
35
8
34 per cent for McGovern. I per
Republican?
In six of the last eight presidential
so & over
63
33
4
cent for other candidates and 5 per
races, the candidate trailing in surveys
The trend in voter preference since
cent underided
Professional &
the Democratic convention is revealed
at the start of the campaign has register-
The latest findings represent a gain
ed gains, particularly in the final days
business
68
29
3
by the trial heat results reported below.
of 6 percentage points for McGovern
of the campaign.
Clerical & sales
66
The first measurement showed Nixon
32
2
SHEP by low point recor led in late
Manual workers
49
44
7
leading McGovern 56 to 37 per cent
Address rollowing the Fagleton crisis
Since 1940, with the exception of the
with 7 per cent undecided. McGovern
presidential campaigns of 1956 and
and the Reput bean convention.
East
57
38
5
lost strength following the Eagleton
1944, the candidate behind in mid-
Midwest
57
40
McGovern's gains can be explained
October subsequently gained anywhere
3
incident. The GOP convention gave
South
66
Nixon a boost, while McGovern's
29
in large measure by the fact that a
5
from three to ten percentage points in
West
35
10
strength remained about the same In
large proportion of manual workers
the final two or three weeks of a cam-
55
surveys since the GOP convention, how-
a group which represents almost 40
paign.
Protestants
63
ever, McGovern has started to close the
33
PO cent of the electorate has shifted
4
back to their traditional Democratic
The following table shows the vote
Catholics
59
37
4
gap, as seen below:
party allegiance. In the August survey,
by groups in the latest survey, based
- Nixon Versus McGovern Trend -
on the choices of registered voters:
Republicans
93
7
*
NIXON held a wide 63 to 18 per cent
Democrats
Other,
33
61
6
Other,
had over McGovern among manual
Nixon McG. Undec.
Nixon McG. Under.
Independents
59
33
8
workers; in the latest survey Nixon's
*
%
%
lead 15 marginal. 49 to 44 per cent.
%
%
%
Less than one per cent.
%
Oct. 13-18
59
36
5
NATIONAL
McCiovern has also picked up
59
36
5
Today's results are based upon per-
Sept. 29-Oct.
9
60
34
6
strength among Catholics and under 30
sonal interviews conducted in approxi-
Sept. 22-25
61
33
6
Men
56
with but not to the same extent as
37
7
mately 350 scientifically selected locali-
Aug. 26-27
64
30
6
Women
62
on! manual workers
35
3
ties with 1220 registered voters out of
- GOP Convention
a total sample of 1516 respondents.
Aug.
5-12
57
31
12
Despite McGoven's gains, President
White
64
31
5
Interviewing was conducted October 13.
Eagleton Indent
Your continues 1., hold the lead among
Non white
"
75
I
IN
July 4
"
y
/
October 21, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies today developed
several interesting items. To summarize:
1) The next Gallup trial heat release is
scheduled for Thursday, OCtober 26. The
polling dates were Oct 14-15. A standard
1500 sample was used and the results will
be within one or two points of 60-34-6, the
figures released on October 15 based on the
Sep 29- Oct 0 Gallup Poll;
2) The next Gallup trial heat field survey
is scheduled to be conducted November 2, 3
and 4. The results are scheduled to be re-
ported November 6, the Monday before the
election. (Bob Teeter has obtained con-
flicting information - that Gallup is in the
field this weekend - Oct 21-22 and will have
results on Tuesday, Oct. 24).
3) There will be more Gallup issue releases than
originally planned. Because Gallup is using the
regular 1500 sample there will not be the demo-
graphic releases based on the Oct 14-15 survey.
Instead, Gallup will consolidate three surveys
and release information on particular ethnic
groups, such as Irish, Italian, Middle
Europeans, etc.
4) Dr. Gallup Sr's theory is that the issue
questions - which political party is better able to
handle peace and prosperity - Read the trail heat
figures. This shoed Dr. Gallup in 1968 that Humphrey
was moving up. However, in 1972 the only move-
ment is in our favor;
-2-
5) Davies believes the Connally 80 minute was
"one of the most devastating political shows that
I have seen in a long time. He thinks that it
covered all bases and that we do not need to do
anything on the economy. The only change Davies
would suggest is re-emphasize that Connally is
a Democrat at the end. This will help hold the
32% Democrats who have left McGovern for the
President. Many Democrats are under pressure to
return to the fold, but as long as they believe
that they have company they will stay with the
President.
6) Davies thinks the Connally speech should be
run in segments. He thinks we should avoid the
sarcasm of the Democrats for Nixon attack spots
because it will look like the President is nit-
picking and kicking the guy when he is down.
7) He could not say whether the President was
helding his position with Catholics because
the samples are too small to permit statistically
significant comparisens.
8) He believes the Frank Rizzo contact is excellent
because of theppositive effect on Italians everywhere.
However, he thinks the Revenue Sharing Signing
Ceremony was a dud,
9) Davies believes the President should spend
more time in controlled TV situations to prevent the
news shows from using uncomplimentary material
from stump events. He cites the TV news film of the
President jerking Agnew around to get him on camera.
10) Althoug he recoggizes the political fact that it
would be wrong to debate McGovern, Davies suggests
that it be considered because the President would
cream McGovern and the people want debates.
A transcript of the conversation is attached.
GS:car
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Oct. 22, 1972
Special College Poll Dims McGovern
Hopes for Huge Student Majority
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
the remaining 4 per cent undecided or
All rights reserved. Republication in
leaning toward other candidates.
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
Although the presidential race is
close among college students overall.
Following is the question asked to
holders.
pus (dormitories, fratermities. sorori-
preferences vary significantly by class
gauge student voting preference
ties) prefer Nixon, but off-cam-
in school. type of college, major area
pus residents (apartments, rooming
If in presidential election beft
of study and place of residence
d decided advantage among students
PRINCETON N J October 21 -
houses) are heavily on the McGovern
majoring in social science or the human-
being held today. which candidate
Results of a special Gailup survey of
The college sample was designed to
side. Students who live at home with
ities, while Nixon does well among
would you POR for McGarern
the nation's college students dim the
provide a representative national sample
their parents, however, are strongly in
students in the physical sciences (math.
the Democrat. or Nixon, the Republi-
the Nixon camp. The following table
can?
of the McGovern forces to win
of all full-time college students, includ-
science, engineering) and those enroll-
:- ajorities 04 the college cam-
me students living off campus, married
gives the details:
ed in business and professional courses
gases of America on Nov. 7.
students. graduate students. and those
Place of Residence
of study. This is shown below:
Norwegian Gallup Poll
attending universities, four-year colleges.
fat has the to , advantage Mc-
Other.
Accurate in Forecasting
and two-year junior colleges. A total
McG. Nixon Under.
Major Area of Study
(.. Jers 551 counted (ii) amough college
of students out of a total college
%
Other,
Vote in Norway,
students earlier this year. the latest
%
%
population of 6 million full-time stu
regures stom that students divide their
On Campus
McG. Nixon Under.
Denmark
dents was interviewed Sept. 25-Oct. 8.
dorms.
%
%
%
vote about equally between President
PRINCETON N J. Oct 00
fraternities,
Humanities/
Niv 7 and Senator George McGovern
Further evidence that scientifi ally
Cla-s in College
sororities
Social Sciences 58
37
5
with McGovern holding a slight edge.
44
52
4
conducted public opinion surveys
A Major Factor
Off campus
Physical Sciences,
on referendum issues can be as
Analysis of the results by key stu-
apartments.
Math,
accurate as surveys on candidates
College Students Not
dent population groups shows that a
rooming houses,
Engineering
44
51
5
is furnished b. a comparison of
student's class in college is an import-
Monolithic Voting Bloc
etc.
56
Business &
39
5
the recent popular vote in None av
ant factor in terms of presidential
Students who live
professional
and Denmark on joining the on-
Generalizations about the political
choices. Nixon holds a substantial lead
at home
(pre-law,
44
52
4
mon Market. The surveys were
views of college students must take
over McGovern among underclassmen
medicine)
42
56
2
into account many variables. For
McGovern leads Nixon among stu-
taken by the Norwegian Gallup
(freshmen and sophomores), while Mc-
dents attending public and private
Differences by sex are only slight.
Institute in both countries.
example, 7 out of every 10 upper-
Govern runs strong with juniors, sen-
classmen who are studying in the
colleges, but the President holds a com-
with Nixon leading marginally among
jors and particularly graduate students,
The following table shows the
manding lead over his opponent in
women and McGovern with a slight
field of the humanities or the social
as shown below:
comparisons:
religions-affiliated institutions, as shown
edge among college men.
sciences and who happen to live off
Class in College
below:
Norway
campus prefer McGovern to Nixon.
Other,
McGovern wins the overwhelming
Election
By way of contrast. only 3 out of
McG.
Nixon
Under.
Type of College
backing of black collegians (about 8
Results
Gellup
10 underclassmen studying physical
%
%
%
Other,
in 10). while Nixon holds a small lead
%
science, business or the professions,
Freshmen
40
56
4
McG.
Nixon
Under.
among whites on campus.
Yes (favor
who live on campus, favor McGov.
Sophomores
45
52
3
%
%
%
More Democrats
joining)
46.51
47.9
ern over Nixon.
Public
Juniors
49
46
5
No
55
40
5
Than Republicans
53.49
52.1
Private
Semors
54
42
4
100
107%
52
45
3
Denominational* 26
*
The latest college findings showing
The lates* trial bear" ficures on
74
a close race overall are also significant
Denmark
Graduate
*
carry based upon those students who
Limited sample size
in that Democrats far outnumber Re-
Yes
63.14
students
61/65
68
doe instered to vote (80 per cent)
31
I
A student's major area of study is al-
publicans on campus (35 per cent to
No
36.56
35/36
can McGovern with 49 per cent of
A student's place of residence is also
so a big factor in terms of candidate
22 per cent, with 43 per cent who call
100
100';
the vote, 47 per cent for Nixon, with
a key factor. Those who live on cam
preference. McGovern, for example, has
themselves "independents").
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Oct. 19, 1972
1972 Race Shattering Voting Patterns
By George Gallup
sex and occupation of voters is not
* The voting group that has deviated
recorded on election ballots, it is only
least from its traditional voting be-
The accompanying table shows the
mately 350 scientifically selected locali-
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
through survey methods that such in-
standings of each party's candidate in
ties with 2,650 registered voters out of
havior are blacks. In the latest survey
All rights reserved. Republication in
formation can become part of the politi-
eight in ten blacks back the Democratic
the last five elections, compared with
a total sample of 3-339 respondents.
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
cal record of presidential years.
the latest survey findings, based on
Interviewing was conducted September
candidate. With the exception of 1956,
with written consent of the copyright
early October interviewing.
29 October 9.
This year for the first time in two
no fewer than eight in ten blacks have
holders.
voted for the Democratic candidate in
decades, a majority of Catholics are
Today's results are based upon per-
supporting a Republican candidate for
presidential elections
sonal interviews conducted in approxi-
President. Persons of this faith have
not failed to give the Democratic ticket
a majority of their vote during the last
two decades.
PRINCITON N J.. Oct. 18 --- The
1972 presidential race will likely go
The latest survey shows Catholics
VOTE BY GROUPS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
down in history as OHIO which shattered
leaning to Nixon over McGovern by
mark traditional woung patterns. 10-
a vote of 52 to 42 per cent.
(Since 1952)
relting from d record defection among
Voters under the age of 30 back
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
D- OCTATH voters
Nixon by a slight margin in the latest
Latest Survey
LBJ
Gold.
In the latest nationwide Gallup trial
survey. This is in sharp contrast to
Stev.
lke
Stev.
like
JFK
Nixon
HIIH
NINOR
Wittlace
McG.
Nixon
Under
heat. at provir utely one flord of Demo-
the 1968 election when young voters
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
is
[°
%
is
trats ( : 2 per cent) currently prefer
voted for Humphrey over Nixon by
%
&
a fairly wide margin. Younger voters
NATIONAL
44.6
55.4
42.2
57.8
50.1
49.9
61.3
38.7
43.0
43.4
13.6
34
Go
6
Nivon to M Govern This defection
have voted Democratic in all president-
Men
47
45
55
52
48
60
rate exceds that recorded in the previ-
53
40
41
43
16
35
60
5
CAT five presidential elections.
ial elections over the last two decades,
Women
42
58
39
61
49
51
62
38
45
43
12
33
59
8
with the exception of 1956.
In + 1988 ein from 12 per cent of
White
43
57
41
59
49
51
59
41
38
47
15
28
65
7
Manual workers have voted heavi-
Deceases use their vote to Nixon
Non-white
79
21
61
39
68
32
94
6
85
12
3
79
is
6
the 11 per cent voted for Wallace.
ly Democratic in elections since 1952,
with the execption of 1956 when they
College
34
66
31
69
39
61
52
48
37
54
9
34
6r
,
The average rate of Democratic de-
divided their vote between Eisenhower
High School
45
55
42
58
52
48
62
38
42
43
is
32
62
6
fection for the last five presidential
and Adlar Stevenson in the Eisenhower
Grade School
52
48
so
50
55
45
66
34
52
33
15
39
52
9
elections is 23 per cent.
landslide. In the latest survey, manual
Prof. & Bus
36
64
32
68
42
58
54
46
34
56
10
29
66
5
The record since the 1952 election
workers vote heavily for Nixon, 55 to
White Collar
40
60
37
63
48
52
57
43
41
47
12
30
65
5
the Republican note as far more
10 per cent.
Manual
56
45
so
50
60
40
71
21)
50
35
15
to
55
5
certer in the Denier rati- vote. With
Very little difference is found be
: exemption of 1,61 when Barry
Under 30
51
49
43
57
54
46
64
36
47
18
15
45
51
4
tween the views of incn and women in
G.) twater ran attainst Lyndon Johnson
30-49 years
47
53
45
55
54
46
63
37
44
41
15
34
62
4
the latest survey, with both sexes lean-
1..1 defection rate among Republi
50 years & older
39
61
39
61
46
54
59
41
41
47
12
29
63
8
ing leavily toward Nixon. In presi-
cans was 20 per cent. the figure has
dential elections prior to 1964, women
Protestant
37
63
37
63
38
62
55
45
35
49
16
28
07
5
never everled 1.1 per cent.
voted more Republican than did men,
Catholic
56
44
51
49
78
22
76
24
59
33
8
42
52
6
A C. arison of the latest Gallup
but in 1964 and 1968 they voted more
Republicans
8
92
4
96
5
95
20
80
9
86
5
3
95
2
survey results. based on interviewing
Democratic than men.
Democrats
77
23
85
15
84
16
87
13
74
12
14
61
12
7
or lu- September 29 October 9. with
Current voter preferences differ
Independents
35
65
30
70
43
57
56
44
31
44
25
31
60
9
by croups 111 the lav five clee.
little by region of the nation, although
many # ifs in voting pref.
East
45
55
40
no
53
47
68
32
50
43
7
33
Go
7
McGovern is slightly stronger in the
erence by groups.
Midwest
42
58
41
59
48
52
61
39
44
-17
9
33
60
7
Far West than in the other three major
South
51
49
49
51
51
49
52
48
31
36
33
The results for the dections are
34
61
5
regions. The Last at this point in the
West
42
58
rate is no more Democratic than other
43
57
49
51
60
40
44
49
7
based on surveys conducted immediate.
37
58
5
Iv before and after the election each
regions of the nation, in contrast to
year. Since such information as age.
recent presidential elections.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Gallup
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 17, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys -
John Davies Discussion
In a long conversation with John Davies of Gallup he made
the following points:
1) There is some indication the President's vote
among Youth is softening, but the sample is too small for
a public release on that point;
2) Gallup will continue releasing information during
the campaign regarding likelihood of voting which indicates
the President does much better than McGovern among those
voters who will vote;
3) Davies and those at the New York Times using the
Yankelovich survey are in contact regarding comparative
results;
4) Dr. Gallup, Sr. distrusts telephone polling. In
1968 Davies directed a political polling operation to run
simultaneously with the field polls. Davies says, "I
would look extremely carefully at what the telephone polls
show". The result was that telephone polling showed the
President 5% above the field poll results;
5) Davies disregards Sindlinger entirely, indicating
that the Sindlinger attempt to pick up subjective trends
is a lot of crap. Whether the comments are coming from
Nixon or McGovern supporters and whether the vote is
influenced is crucial and Sindlinger doesn't show this;
6) Although the "corruption" charge will "make some
difference", the public believes "all politicians are
corrupt", so it doesn't have much effect;
- 2 -
7) Dr. Gallup, Sr. believes that the questions on
handling peace and prosperity lead trial heat changes.
In 1968, the Democrats began improving in both of these
categories before Humphrey began moving up in the trial
heats;
8) In 1972 the only shift on handling peace and
prosperity has been "away from the Democrats ...
the
Republicans for the first time have a pretty substantial
lead on both of those questions of keeping the country
out of a major war and keeping the pursestrings in sensible
shape".
9) Davies believes it cannot be determined this early
whether it would be helpful for a heavy or a light turnout.
The question is whether the Democrats who now support the
President might just sit out the election rather than vote
for the President or McGovern;
10) The President's economic policies and McGovern's
screwball plans are holding the Democrats for the President.
The main issue for the President's Democrats is not national
defense. For every Democrat Gallup interviewed who opposed
busing or amnesty, there were 2 or 3 Democrats who couldn't
stand the welfare plan and giveaway programs;
11) National defense is not a burning issue any more; and
12) In Davies' opinion, McGovern has to convince the
people that the war is still going on at full steam in order
to win. He also has to do something with his position and
perception on the economy.
The full context of the conversation is attached.
CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- October 14, 1972
G:
It's Gordon, how are you?
D:
How are you? I missed you yesterday.
G:
Yeah, I half expected you to stop by but
D:
Well, I had my daughter with me so I just refrained from
calling and even suggesting it. She wasn't feeling so hot.
I walked her all over town and the poor kid got a little bit
homesick so I figured there was no sense pushing it.
G:
Any word on whether they are going to go with the results
tomorrow?
D:
It's going to be Monday Gordon.
G:
Results on Monday, huh?
D:
Right and the, let's see, the figure, I believe, now
I didn't check into this, the figure I believe is exactly
where I told you. 60 - 34
G:
60-34? 6 I guess then for the balance?
D:
Right, and I remember region was within a point of each other ---
32, 33. I think the West was 34 for McGovern and the
others were 33.
G:
Okay.
D:
Democratic defection was still at 32.
G:
Oh, that's interesting.
D:
So that hasn't changed at all. There is some indication that
the Youth Vote might have thrown back but the samples size
is SO small that we are not going to make a big deal of it.
G:
Oh, I see.
D:
The figures show that McGovern now has 53% of the new voters
18-24 but the sample size is only something like 175. So any
change of that type is very doubtful. I wouldn't even pay any
attention to it.
G:
Is this the field interview of the 7th and 8th or is it that
D:
This is that Chief Precinct Sample
--
it was the 30th of Sept.
to this past Monday.
page 2
G:
Which would have been the 9th I guess - huh?
D:
Right.
G:
So it went rather a long time.
D:
Yeah, 2600 and some interviews with registered voters
out of a total sample of 3400.
G:
But you' just release the registered voters information
right?
D:
Right.
G:
It's a secret ballot, right, to push the leaners down
SO far?'
D:
We released a very interesting finding too, the we divided
the registered voters into likelyhood of voting, how likelyhood,
medium likelyhood, very low likelyhood and we found out that
among the highest likelj hood of voting the figure was 1 point
greater for Nixon.
G:
So it would be 61-34 or something?
D:
Right -- whereas in the lower levels McGovern did very well--
didn't come close to the President but it came down to about
a 13 - 14 point spread among the lowest likel hood of voting
group. This is interesting but it is not terrible hopeful for
the other side because traditionally these people just don't
come out --- it doesn't matter what. And in our final
analysis, when we determine the predicted turn-out, of course
this low level will be excluded.
G:
Right -- ARE you going to comment on the likelyhood of voting
in the thing or will the --
D:
Not yet
G:
I see SO the lead will just be
D:
No, we have to get up to date registration figures and registration
in some states is still going on
G:
It closes this week as I recall
D:
Yeah, SO (1) we'll get the registration levels and (2) we'll
be using our battery questions, we'll be determing the degree
of interest in the election and simply what is turning out. As
page 3
you know, it' one thing to be registered to vote and it's
another thing getting there.
G:
That's very interesting -- Are you guys in the field now?
D:
Let's see, I'm trying to calm down two little kids-- I can't
even think--you know Gordon, Ive just drawn a blank -- we've had so
darn many surveys go out in the last week that I just some of
them have been commercial ones.
G:
Well, you were talking about doing it weekly and I was
just curious as to whether or not you were doing it this
week-end or not.
D:
If you just give me a minute, I think it will flash. Trying to
look at dates here. There's interviewing going on now.
G:
Currently?
D:
I'm very, I'm almost positive -- I could let you know this
afternoon.
G:
I would appreciate that very much -- it would be interesting to
know what the interview dates were and so. forth. What else is of
note?
D:
I can't think of anything Gordon -- once again, I was away
yesterday and what decisions were made yesterday -- but I'm
pretty sure, I'm positive we'll be going with the break downs
and the final figure, the quarter final figure, on--Monday --
the same date the Yankelovich comes out incidentally.
G:
Any information on the Yankelovich?
D:
No, Jack Rosenthal at the TIMES wouldn't give me any but he
made one comment that was interesting to me -- he said that
he asked me if ours were coming out Sunday or Monday, and I
said Monday and he sounded a little but perplexed about it
because it was the same day and when I told him the interviewing
days he said -- he sort of sighed with relief and said "Oh that's
great-- at least we have a couple of dates on you anyway.
G:
So they are more recent?
D:
They are more recent and it would look to me on the basis of his
comments that perhaps he has got a slightly different figure.
G:
Of course, Yankelovich said up in Cambridge, Mass. the other day
that the %'s were going to stay pretty close to what they are now.
D:
Well, that could be anything within 5 points.
G:
Which is kind of interesting -- did you get this
page 4
D:
What do you think of this Yankelovich material?
G:
Well, it's interesting that he goes after all the big
states they have a disadvantage of doing it by telephone
but alot of the stuff in the primaries was sure accurate.
D:
Which, incidentally, telephone interviewing in an election
situation is very, very dangerous.
G:
Yeah, well
he
D:
We tried it for four years ago, just to test our service against
the telephone method and we found ourselves going way off base
on telephone.
G:
How -- are they alot higher?
D:
The telephone figures showed alot higher for the President.
G:
I see, more than the personal interview?
D:
I mean for the Republican, I should say for the Republican.
G:
I see.
D:
Alot of that had to do with the fact that the telephone
ownership tends to be a little higher among the more affluent,
you know, the better educated, the more likely to vote and
so on.
G:
Did you guys arrive at any % to break you down like you know,
4% or higher on an average or any of that.
D:
It was 5% higher we found.
G:
5% higher?
D:
You can figure that Dr. Gallup goes with that figure and I have
argued with him about that. I told him that there were kind of
balancing factors involved in it - I blamed it more on the high
no opinion than the reluctance of people to talk about it over
the phone - rather than any Republican or otherwise biased situation.
G:
Huh!
D:
But, I can't win their argument - but I stick with it. I did the
experiment -- it took me three months to put it together and I was
convinced that the figures that we were showing were accurrate
within the acceptable limits but that it was very difficult to
break that undecided down. We couldn't do it the way we do it
with the personal interview and the paper ballot.
Page 5
G:
Yeah, the guy actually looking him in the face and
asking him to put something on the card.
D:
Well, Gallup, Sr. has got a negative opinion of telephone
interviewing to begin with. He doesn't approve of it,
won't let us do it and I can't blame him in a sense, as long
as you have a personal interview going for you, you might
as well stick with it
Sindlinger I just disregard
entirely.
G:
Really? Why is that?
D:
Well, his opinion in 1968, if you look back, was rather
habby. And, I tend to think in a situation where the
race is this clear cut at the present time, almost any
pollster, you know Stradun Davies organization, could go
out and conduct (tape was changed )
I would' look extremely carefully at what the telephone polls
show.
G:
Yeah, yeah Well, on the Sindlinger stuff, he claims that
he can pick up, by a masssive telephone interview and he can
elimante some of the sample problems. Cause he is telephone
interviewing constantly.
D:
Yeah, but ask him sometime whether that means free substitution
or not?
G:
What do you mean?
D:
Well, here is the thing -- let's say we had 500 telephone names
in front of us and we spent an entire weekend calling them - I
could guarantee that 25% of that sample you couldn't contact -
1) they wouldn't be home; 2) they would likely refuse, hang up on
you and so on -- so what that means, he may be able to overcome
the sample problems, but what he is doing is he is freely
substituting which we don't allow.
G:
Yeah, I see.
D:
Although, that's I would guess the only thing you could
do in a telephone situation -- however, we had other ways
of doing it but his best bet would be of course to be to take
what is obtained and don't even look at the figures - just
take the demographics and then weight all the demographics to their
proper levels.
G:
Percentage within the population?
D:
Right, and then show the figures. But, I have a feeling that
page 6
what he does is to stick with his sample with the free
substitution. Now, I may be very wrong and I don't
want to indict his methodology but
G:
He also claims that he can pick up sort of a feel -- like after
McGovern's Vietnam speech, he thinks that alot of the people
picked up the phrases "Surrender" and "Apology for North Vietnam
and White Flag" and stuff which strikes us as questionable.
D:
Well, let's put it this way -- it strikes me as being alot
of crap to be perfectly honest with you -- let's face it --
do the figures show it?
G:
Well, he doesn't have any figures on it -- it's just sort of
like an open-ended question.
D:
Yeah, but I mean the overall figures don't show it --- in other
words, he is not showing any great movement toward McGovern.
G:
No, No.
D:
So I would
people may be picking it up, but that's not the
important thing. The important thing in that sense is that
is it being picked up and influencing anybody. I mean I
don't care whether people would be saying Surrender or White Flag
or whatever. But, if it's not translating into a different
voter preference than the person might have had a week before,
it doesn't mean two cents.
G:
That's right, right.
D:
I think that you can get hung up on those things, when you're
asking open end questions you can always get that kind of reaction
from people but it's important to find out whether those reactions
were coming from people who were already supporting McGovern and
if that's the case, they might just be strengthening their own
views SO I would stay away from it.
G:
Yeah, that's interesting.
D:
It's easy for you people to get hung up on this sort of thing
because if he beats this home enough it becomes a worry factor
for you and I if he goes going to report data like that
I'd like to see him report it by population groups.
G:
Yeah, well he doesn't do that.
D:
He should though, usually.
G:
What about, do you think McGovern is having any affect on
this Corruption issue, your poll last week showed that Corruption
page 7
just wasn't the big thing. Do you think that this continued
hammering on this is going to make any difference?
D:
It's got to make some difference sure -- there's no doubt
about it. But to be perfectly honest with you, the way
the voters look at it, from what we found, was that why
should one side be making these charges against the other
side when they are both just as guilty.
G:
Right, all politicians
D:
All politicians are corrupt. (period) And the people know that
and the people feel that and being one myself, I know that.
G:
Gordon laughing
D:
But the fact is that as long as that continues the whole
of that feeling, you people are on safe ground. Right, wrong
or indifferent.
G:
That's interesting because, boy, he sure is putting alot of
his guns on that.
D:
I think if the question were asked and I wanted to ask it
but we just didn't have space for .it, you know, Do you think
that Corruption is pretty widespread among both parties?
In other words, do you see much of a difference between the two
parties on the area of corruption. Would you say that one is
cleaner than the other? The public would probably show or reveal
that there is no difference at all that they are both corrupt.
G:
Yeah, I guess that is probably true, sort of the shame
D:
It's a shame but we in public life have to live with that idea.
G:
Yeah
are you going to go on this Key Precinct thing with some
of the issues -- similar to the issue handling release of last
Friday? Who can handle issues best or
D:
Right
this should be coming up soon, right.
I don't know whether we are actually going to be reporting it
but the figures will be available. Dr. Gallup likes to use it
for his own personal analysis and we use those as sort of
voting barometers.
G:
Cross checks.
D:
Right -- for example. if their changing, if the question is
Peace and Prosperity which I think are sort of meaningless
questions by themselves-- if they start showing a return to
the Democrats whereas the overall McGovern figure doesn't
page 8
change, I think it indicates an early warning signal that
very soon there may be a bigger movement toward McGovern.
We found that in 1968 in fact.
G:
Oh really - that the issues started to move?
D:
In other words, we saw the shift to Humphrey before the
figures began to shift and I know Gallup himself predicted
in early October when the race was still 15 points separating
the two and he predicted down to the wire contest.
G:
Any indication of that this time -- is there any shift?
D:
Well, yeah, there is a shift but it's the other direction.
G:
Away from McGovern - huh?
D:
Yeah, away from the Democrats, I mean. the Republicans for the
first time have a pretty substantial lead on both those questions
of keeping the country out of a major war and keeping the purse-
strings in sensible shape.
G:
Right, SO there is no indication of that issue shift leading
a shift on McGovern, huh?
D:
Right --- Yeah, we're doing -- I was with the American
Psychiatric Asso. yesterday and we're considering doing a
very interesting study -- it probably won't be done after the
election we just can't get the machinery going in time but
it's going to be sort of based on the Eagleton situation and
how people regard public officials who have undergone such
mental treatment- whether or not the public thinks that men
in this condition can hold useful jobs -- or run for public
office and so on. It's going to be very interesting.
G:
It really would be fascinating.
D:
But, I don't think the results would be available until Feb.
or March. They work rather slow.
G:
Anything else of interest coming up? Are you going to try any
questions on the media or something -- there has been alot of
discussion, you know, the American Independent Party just
filed suit against CBS for non-coverage.
D:
I don't think they are going to do anything but I wouldn't let
it bother you.
G:
No, we're not too concerned but
D:
I think that you will probably find that between now and Nov. 4
or so, we'll be concentrating strictly on just the hard data
and breaks and so on.
page 9
G:
Trial heats? and the whole but.
D:
We have an interesting survey that we just completed among
College students.
G:
YEAH!
D:
Well, we have the trail heat on there. I hadn't seen the
data. It's 99 and 100 % commercial but we through a trial
heat on there just to liven things up a bit.
G:
Yeah, is this for NEWSWEEK?
D:
No, no, this is ours.
G:
OH!
D:
So I don't know what is going to happen. I haven't seen any
of the data - as a matter of fact, I haven't even looked
at the question.
G:
Of course that's the strongest segment in the society and
he's going to all sorts of College Campuses.
D:
Well, it's interesting to see whether there isn't general
agreement among students and there probably won't be.
G:
No
D:
And the region of the country ought to be very interesting
in terms of the trail heats.
G:
Sure, when do you think you'll have those.
D:
I really have no idea - I just haven't followed it.
G:
Yeah, that would be an interesting survey to note because that's
been one the surprises in this election that McGovern didn't have
the youth vote all sewed up.
D:
One of the reasons I am reluctant to follow it is because I
don't think that they did a very good job in terms of voter
registration and likely hood of voting. It could represent
a very distorted figure.
G:
That's really a problem among college students because they all
claim that they are registered.
D:
And you really have no indication of what they are going to do.
G:
Exactly.
page 10
D:
Or where they are going to be in fact.
G:
Yeah, have you people, other than this likelyhood to vote,
gone after the sort of apathy question. The turn out and
the whole bit?
(Changing tape)
G:
So there's less interest in this campaign than in 1968?
D:
Yes, slightly less. But what will be reflected in the actual
turnout is another thing.
G:
Is it more of an attitude that they would just like to
have the campaign get over? Or, more of a just, they
D:
People, more and more, I think it is indicated by the
rise in the Independent figure, I think people are just
becoming jaded with Politics in general and I think that
is going to be a political fact of life ten years from now,
but I don't think it is going to have any impact this year.
G:
What if the percentage of vote will be affected in any way
I mean if we are going to have a high or low turnout?
D:
I really couldn't tell you but I would guess that the turnout
should be somewhat the same as it was.
G:
Really? You think 60 % of the American public is an ingrained
voter?
D:
I think SO -- and I think if that happens that it's to your
advantage.
G:
I do too. Have you fellows picked up any data as to whether
it's to our advantage to have a high turnout VS. a low
turnout? It used to be that the Conservative candidate would have
a low turnout because his voters would get out whereas a Liberal
candidate should have a high turnout because he would bring out
other various segments of the public. But there is some thought
now that the President has such broad support that the higher the
turnout the better.
D:
Well, I think you have to look at it in terms of the record
defection among the Democratic party these days. If these
people follow through with what they are saying today and do in
fact vote for President Nixon, then a higher turnout would
likely help. But if these people decide that they are for
Nixon today but they are just not going SO far as to vote for
him but not for McGovern either, they sit it out, then a low
turnout would help you. But it's hard to say, you see we have
page 11
as it gets to the last week, then these 30% or so of
Democrats away from McGovern will have to begin making
a very basic decision.
G:
Real hard choice?
D:
It's easy to do it today -- as a matter of fact it's fashionable
to do it today -- particularly in view of the Democrats for
Nixon ads and so on and SO forth -- they feel a great comfort.
G:
Right - have you seen some of the Demos for Nixon ads?
D:
Sure have.
G:
WHat do you think of them?
D:
Unbelieveable - very good.
G:
Really ? Which the defense and the welfare?
D:
Well, I liked the Welfare, the chap sitting up on the -------------------------
it's just amazing.
G:
Wait till you see the one we are going to run next week! Dems
for Nixon ad. It's the one that talks about McGovern's
credibility -- and it goes back and forth on the particular,
the different stands he has taken over the course of the last
two or three months.
D:
(He laughs)
G:
It's just amazing - because his statements themselves are
SO damaging to him.
D:
Well that will be interesting and I'll be anxious to see it.
G:
Any indication of what issue really holds those 32% democrats -
is it National Defense -- is it
D:
I would say economics.
G:
You think it's the economic policy. So the Welfare commercial
is probably better for holdong them than the Defense?
D:
Right -- because I think that alot of these Democrats are rather
Conservative people. They probably would have no problem going
with Johnson if he were back. They are the manual workers the
blue collar types the boys that are really turned off by these
flamboyant Welfare types and so on.
G:
You think it is really the economics? Because some people argue
that instead it's amnesty and draft dodgers and some of these
more visceral issues that holds them in line for the President.
page 12
Bussing really bothers them and that sort of thing.
D:
Well those are regional situations and isolated incidents --
I think that you are going to find alot of Democrats who
are down on McGovern because of Amnesty and in Dearborn and
Pontiac you are going to find probably whole towns of
Democrats who are against McGovern.
G:
On the bussing thing
D:
I mean generally it's probably more his economic programs
that are turning people off.
G:
Huh!
D:
That's for every Democrat that we talked to who was upset
about amnesty or bussing -- there were two or three that
couldn' stand the welfare plan, the give-away programs and
so on.
G:
Really, huh! That's amazing. So we have to go after the
Democratic group on what used to be the Republicans weakest
issue that is the economy.
D:
Right.
G.
That's just amazing! That's showing up in your issues stuff?
D:
Right, in other words the Democrats have always had the edge
on being able to keep the nation running straight economically
and probably without the McGovern Welfare Program the Democrats
would still have that edge. They probably lost it simply on
the fact that if McGOvern got in it would -- the nation wouldn't
be in very good shape economically at all.
G:
Jesus! So the $1000 a person and one out of two people on
Welfare is what is really killing them?
D:
I think.
G:
WOW - that's just fascinating. We sort of thought that but we're
always a little edgy when it comes to going after the economic
issue because of the Historical background.
D:
Well, I think that is shown in the fact that the Republicans now
have the edge on keeping the Nation prosperous, and it would
make little sense with all of the criticism about the economy -
you would think that voters, particularly Democrats would say,
hell we need a change.
G:
Do you think we are getting blasted as hard as some people say
on inflation and food prices. Some of our stuff has sown that
inflation is a pretty serious problem.
page 13
D:
It's a serious problem but once again how does inflation
or even fear of inflation or personal concern about their
own pocket books - how does that relate, how does that
go against a candidate when the other candidate advocates
giving every thing to everybody. I think that that is the
context in which it has to be looked at.
G:
So against another candidate, we would be hurting on inflation -
but this guy
D:
I think that if McGovern had never said a thing about a $1000
per person that the President would be in some kind of a bind
on this economical thing.
G:
Most fascinating, hmmmm.
D:
Everybody you talk to, everybody I talked to Gordon, who's
against McGovern and who is a democrat and who has voted
democratic mostly all his life brings up these points. You
know, the fact that he can't believe some of McGovern's
programs. They are just outrageous and I quote.
G:
Jesus -- that amazing because you see he spends most of his time
trying to defend his Defense proposals.
.
D:
Right which the surveys have found - most surveys have found -
that this is not a burning issue anymore -
G:
National Defense-huh?
D:
Right. He still hammers on Vietnam when the President
is being given credit for doing a very good job among
Democrats and Republicans. I think that is shown in the
Independent figure which is going so strong for Nixon.
G:
Sure -- what could McGovern get us on -- on anything?
If you were listing the issues, what would you do for the next
D:
24 days?
D:
For him?
G:
Yeah - I mean he's pretty desperate.
D:
If I were his advisor I would tell him to buy another 1/2 of T.V.
D:
I think that there are two things that could happen. I think
he could change his economic policy and (2) I think the people
could get rather upset about the bombing in Vietnam now. I
think if he keeps batting home the fact that the war is not
over, it's just now a different kind of war, and shows pictures
of the bombing going on and people getting killed, etc., that
this could help him a bit too. Right or wrong, he's got to be
able to convince the American people that the war is still going
on at full steam, whether it is or it isn't.
G:
So he's got to go after the two basic issues. He's got to
go after the Vietnam thing and the economy thing or he's
screwed.
D:
Right.
G:
Well, that's fascinating. Well, it will be an interesting
24 days,
D:
It sure will.
G:
When do you think you'll be in Washington again?
D:
Possibly next Thursday.
G:
If you get a chance, why don't you stop in?
D:
I sure will.
G:
Good.
D:
I'll be alone this time.
G:
OK. Good, talk to you later.
NIXON-Mc
7ERN DEMOGRAPHICS
H-8/28-9/1
W3-9/5-16
NIXON
G-9/22-25
0-10/6-8 0-9/29-10/10 59
/H-8/28-9/1
W3-9/5-16
McGOVE
0-9/29-10/1
0-10/6-8
H-8/20-9/1
w3-9/5-16
N
NATIONAL
57
63
62
59
61
59
34
29
32
31
33
28
25
9
8
6
10
6
13
16
SEX
Male
58
63
61
58
58
65
C2
33
29
33
32
36
25
24
9
8
6
10
6
10
14
Female
56
63
64
59
58
53
56
35
29
31
30
30
32
27
9
8
6
11
6
15
17
AGE
18-24
47
52
44
52
55
49
6
47
44
50
46
40
41
6
4
6
2
5
10
25-49
58
59
5.0
64
63
60
an
34
34
41
29
22
24
8
7
9
6
15
16
50+
59
65
61
61
62
57
61
28
26
29
25
31
30
20
13
9
10
14
7
13
19
EDUCATION
8th grade
52
56
56
52
51
56
53
36
36
38
34
41
29
25
12
8
7
14
8
15
22
High School
58
66
67
60
65
61
61
31
26
26
29
30
24
25
11
8
7
11
5
15
14
College
58
63
66
59
61
63
62-1
37
31
32
33
35
30
27
5
6
3
8
4
7
11
UNION
49
56
56
55
52
58
55
40
34
39
34
42
31
28
11
10
5
11
6
11
17
RACE
White
62
67
67
64
67
64
63
29
25
26
26
28
25
21
11
8
7
10
5
11
16
Black
16
22
25
13
10
24
31+
77
67
74
75
82
52
53
7
11
2
12
8
24
16
RELIGION
Catholic
55
62
63
58
52
52
61-
33
27
31
31
40
37
22
12
11
6
11
8
11
17
Protestant
68
74
66
71
70
66
64
24
20
29
20
26
20
22
8
6
5
9
4
14
14
Jewish
46
49
32
37
32
32
44
43
56
39
51
37
10
8
15
24
17
31
INCOME
Under $5,000
52
56
58
53
44
47
3
39
36
35
37
44
32
9
8
8
10
12
21
$5-9,999
55
58
59
54
35
32
35
33
10
10
6
13
64
58
23
28
13
14
$10-14,000
58
70
65
64
31
23
29
27
11
7
6
9
$15,000+
65
71
72
66
67
75
8
30
24
25
27
28
13
5
5
4
7
5
12
POLITICS
Republican
87
93
89
95
91
90
10
5
7
4
4
3
3
2
4
1
5
7
Democrat
38
43
41
32
37
42
+
5
53
47
48
61
47
41
9
10
11
7
16
17
REGION
East
58
60
61
56
52
57
+
5
33
34
30
34
36
26
9
6
9
10
12
17
Midwest
53
64
58
53
58
55
3
36
29
38
34
30
29
11
7
4
13
12
16
South
65
70
67
70
70
69
67
27
19
27
22
24
17
20
8
11
7
8
6
14
13
West
55
58
60
59
54
57+
39
34
35
32
33
25
6
8
4
9
13
18
&
Special
Galles
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 14, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies this morning disclosed
that the Gallup trial heat figures will be released
Monday, October 16 not Sunday, October 15 as planned.
The final figures are 60-34-6, which is one point
different than the 60-35-5 he had given me last
Monday. The polling dates were September 30 to
October 9. The Survey was the 3000 Key Precinct inter-
view with 2600 registered voters.
Ed Harper called me asking for the Gallup figures for
Ehrlichman for his Issues and Answers appearance. I
did not indicate to Harper whether we had the results
or not. I recommend against giving the information to
Ehrlichman for release Sunday because it could destroy
the confidential relationship with Gallup's John
Davies.
&
SP
October 14, 1972
Galleys
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
Discussion with John Davies this morning disclosed
that the Gallup trial heat figures will be released
Monday, October 16 not Sunday, October 15 as planned.
The. final figures are 60-34-6, which is one point
different than the 60-35-5 he had given me last
Monday. The polling dates were September 30 to
October 9. The Survey was the 3000 Key Precenct inter-
view with 2600 registered voters.
Ed Harper called me asking for the Gallup figures for
Ehrlichman for his Issues and Answers appearance. I
did not indicate to Harper whether we had the results
or not. I recommend against giving the information to
EHrlichman for release Sunday because it could destroy
the confidential relationship with Gallup's John
Davies.
GS:car
14m 42 )
sched
Fuld Interviews
Results mon-
final aigures:
x 60-34-6
Regions :
w/in wl in
32 33
For west 34 MeG
Dem Defer -still at
others 33
some indic Youth 32 wate
cote rernging
53 % of 18-24
175 - sample
Key Precent
size two small
9/30 - 10/9
Reso very 2600 my regis voters
heldihood voting
among 61-134-4 luest lil
MeG did letter among
low evely vote
13% - let.
Projee teern
In aidd now:
up to date Regis. levels
several out in last was
Breaddeens
+
Yanablovil 1 Jack Resentlal
at Times
- men.
- sighed, went. so Yank-mere
-
shift-
college Stus - 99.100%
Trl Heat: -ours
The Gallup Poll
The Race Today: Nixo
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
ion of the nation, although McGovern
with written consent of the copyright
is slightly stronger in the Far West than
holders.
in the other three major regions. The
East at this point in the race is no more
Democratic than other regions of the
East
nation, in contrast to other presidential
Midwest
election years.
South
West
PRINCETON, N. J., Oct. I5 - The
Importance of High
latest nationwide trial heat shows Nixon
Turnout for McGovern
Republicans
winning the support of 60 per cent of
The problem for the McGovern
Democrats
registered voters to 34 per cent for
forces between now and election day
Independents
McGovern, one per cent for other can-
will be to persuade as many of the
didates and five per cent undecided.
registered Democrats as possible to get
I8-24 years
While these findings, based on inter-
to the polls on election day.
25-29 years
30-49 years
viewing conducted September 29-Octo-
The importance of turnout for Mc-
50 & older
ber 9, represent virtually no change
Govern is revealed in the following
from the previous survey, conducted
table which shows that among persons
Professional &
September 22-25, McGovern has reg-
with a low likelihood of voting, the
Business
istered a gain of four percentage points
race is closer than among those with a
Clerical and
during the six weeks since the GOP
high likelihood of voting. In the lat-
Sales
convention in late August.
ter group, Nixon leads by more than a
Manual workers
The President holds the lead with all
2-to-I margin.
major population groups, with the ex-
The following table shows the re-
Labor union
ception of blacks and new voters.
sults based on a 9-question voter turn-
out scale:
Whites
Non-whites
Un-
Gallup Political
Nixon McG. Other dec.
College
%
%
%
%
background
Scoreboard
All those of voting age
High school
By Likelibood of voting:
Grade school
High
65
30
I
4
Medium
56
38
*
6
Men
Low
5I
38
I
IO
Women
The following table shows the vote
Protestants
by groups in the latest survey, based
Catholics
Democratic defection remains a ser-
on the choices of registered voters:
* Less than one
ious obstacle for McGovern, with ap-
Un-
proximately one Democrat in three (32
Nixon McG. Other dec.
Today's result
per cent) currently defecting to Nixon.
%
%
%
%
sonal interviews
Voter preferences differ little by reg-
NATIONAL
60
34
I
5
mately 350 scier
For Release: Monday, Oct. 16, 1972
60%, McGovern 34%
*
33
7
*
33
7
34
I
4
37
I
4
ties with 2,650 registered voters out of
a total sample of 3,339 respondents.
*
3
2
Interviewing was conducted September
6I
I
6
29-October 9.
3I
I
8
This question was asked:
*
53
2
If the presidential election were
33
2
4
being held TODAY, which candi-
34
I
3
date would you vote for - McGov-
29
I
7
ern, the Democrat, or Nixon, the
Republican?
*
The trend in voter preference since
29
5
the Democratic convention is revealed
by the trial heat results reported below.
30
2
3
40
*
The first measurement showed Nixon
5
leading McGovern 56 to 37 per cent
39
6
with 7 per cent undecided. McGovern
I
lost strength following the Eagleton
28
6
incident. The GOP convention gave
I
Nixon a boost, while McGovern's
79
I
5
strength remained about the same. In
surveys since the GOP convention, how-
*
ever, McGovern has started to close the
34
5
gap, as seen below:
32
I
5
*
39
9
- Nixon Versus McGovern Trend -
Other,
35
I
4
Nixon McG. Undec.
33
I
7
%
%
%
Sept. 29-Oct. 9
60
28
34
6
I
4
Sept. 22-25
61
33
6
42
I
5
nt
Aug. 26-27
64
30
6
- GOP Convention -
based upon per-
Aug. 5-12
57
31
I2
cted in approxi-
- Eagleton Incident -
/ selected locali-
July 14-17
56
37
7
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, October 13, 1972
Widest Margin is on Vietnam
Nixon Leads McGovern on Top Issues
-
Vietnam, Inflation, and Crime
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
Deal Better with Inflation?
Nixon - to you think can to a
All rights reserved. Republication in
Nixon
McG. Under.
better job of de ding with the prob.
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
%
%
%
tem of crime and lawlessness?
with written consent of the capyright
holders.
Nixon Also Has Advantage
NATIONAL
47
31
22
Which Candidate Can Better
Deal Better with Crime
On Inflation and Crime
Deal with Vietnam?
and Lawlessness?
Democrats
President Nixon also holds an ad-
23
55
22
Nixon McG. Under.
vantage as the candidate voters be-
Republicans
79
6
IS
Nixon McG. lee
%
lieve is better able to handle the prob-
%
%
Independents
47
26
27
%
to
C.
NATIONAL
58
26
16
NATIONAL
50
26
PRINCETON N J., Dit 12 AI.
tem of inflation, as well as the problem
24
Democratic
that in stand on Vietnam was re-
of crime and lawlessness, although
Democrats
36
sponsible in considerable measure for
46
18
defectors
63
9
28
Democrats
his margins over his rival are not 50
27
47
26
his success in the primaries this spring,
great as in the case of Vietnam.
Republicans
90
3
7
Republicans
82
5
13
Independents
60
21
Sen. George McGovern trails President
19
18-29 years
42
43
15
Independents
50
19
3*
Nixon by a wide margin as the can
The nation's top problems. as cur-
30.49 years
48
29
23
didate voters perceive as better able to
rently perceived by voters and reported
Democratic
so & older
49
26
25
Democratic
earlier by the Gallup Poll, are the
defectors
Fund'e the Victnam signation. Nearly
85
3
12
defectors
68
6
26
Victuam war and the high cost of living
Nixon also leads by a 50 to 26 per
1X 17, ten (en per int) IfI the latest
survey give Nixon the advantage on
(each cited by 27 per cent), followed
18-29 years
52
cent margin as better able to deal with
33
15
18-29 years
46
35
19
by drug use and abuse (by 9 per cent)
16
the problem of crime and lawlessness.
this issue. compared to 26 per cent
30-49 years
59
25
62
Roughly three Democrats in ten give
30-49 years
52
23
25
and crime and lawlessness (by 8 per
50 & older
22
16
%10 select McGovern.
50 & older
51
23
26
cent)
Nixon the advantage on this issue.
Even young voters. 18 to 29, back
Nixon Lead Is Less
while seven in ten Democratic defectors
The survey findings reported today
Nixon over McGovern on Vietnam,
Following is the question asked about
On Inflation Issue
do so. Youth are slightly on Nixon's
are based on personal interview: with
Victnam:
side.
1505 a lults conducted in more than
despite the fact that McGovern does
Nixon's lead on inflation is some-
far better with this are group in test
Which candidate - McGovern or
what less --- 47 per cent say Nixon can
Here is the question and key findings:
300 scientifically selected localities
elections than he does with older voters.
Nixon do you think can do a
do a better job of dealing with the high
across the nation during the period Sep
Which candidate - McGovern or
In addition. persons in this are group
better job of dealing with the Viet-
cost of living. compared to 31 per cent
tember 22-25.
nam situation?
have been particularly outspoken OR
who name McGovern. Although older
the ver and renerated much of the
Nixon is perceived as better able to
voters give Nixon the advantage on this,
momentum behind McGovern's (am-
handle this issue among virtually all
opinion is evenly divided among young
paign last spring.
major population groups. As many as
voters, under 30. Six in ten Demo-
The results reported today are based
a third of persons classifying themselves
cratic defectors pick Nixon on this
as Democrats say Nixon can do a better
issue.
on a nationwide survey conducted Sep
Quarter-Final Gallup Report
tember 22-25. What effect McGovern's
job, while more than eight in ten Dem-
Following is the question and results
relevised address on Victnain Tuesday
ocrats currently defecting to Nixon hold
on key groups:
Within the next few days. the Gallup Poil will report the
evening will have on the larive stand
this opinion.
Which candidate - McGovern or
results of its quarter final survey on the presidential race. based
mes of the two candidates on this issue
The following table shows the na-
Nixon - do you think can do a
on in-person interviews with voters in 350 election precincts or
will be determined in forthcoming sur-
tional results and those by politics and
better job of dealing with inflation
districts in the nation.
veys.
age:
and the high cost of living?
** 16
CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES -- October 14, 1972
G:
It's Gordon, how are you?
D:
How are you? I missed you yesterday.
G:
Yeah, I half expected you to stop by but
D:
Well, I had my daughter with me so I just refrained from
calling and even suggesting it. She wasn't feeling so hot.
I walked her all over town and the poor kid got a little bit
homesick so I figured there was no sense pushing it.
G:
Any word on whether they are going to go with the results
tomorrow?
D:
It's going to be Monday Gordon.
G:
Results on Monday, huh?
D:
Right and the, let's see, the figure, I believe, now
I didn't check into this, the figure I believe is exactly
where I told you. 60 - 34
G:
60-34? 6 I guess then for the balance?
D:
Right, and I remember region was within a point of each other -
32, 33. I think the
West
was 34 for McGovern and the
others were 33.
G:
Okay.
D:
Democratic defection was still at 32.
G:
Oh, that's interesting.
D:
So that hasn't changed at all. There is some indication that
the Youth Vote might have thrown back but the samples size
is so small that we are not going to make a big deal of it.
G:
Oh, I see.
D:
The figures show that McGovern now has 53% of the new voters
18-24 but the sample size is only something like 175. So any
change of that type is very doubtful. I wouldn't even pay any
attention to it.
G:
Is this the field interview of the 7th and 8th or is it that
D:
This is that Chief Precinct Sample --- it was the 30th of Sept.
to this past Monday.
page 2
G:
Which would have been the 9th I guess - huh?
D:
Right.
G:
So it went rather a long time.
D:
Yeah, 2600 and some interviews with registered voters
out of a total sample of 3400.
G:
But you'll just release the registered voters information
right?
D:
Right.
G:
It's a secret ballot, right, to push the leaners down
so far?
D:
We released a very interesting finding too, the we divided
the registered voters into likelyhood of voting, how likelyhood,
medium likelyhood, very low likelyhood and we found out that
among the highest likelyhood of voting the figure was 1 point
greater for Nixon.
G:
So it would be 61-34 or something?
D:
Right -- whereas in the lower levels McGovern did very well--
didn't come close to the President but it came down to about
a 13 - 14 point spread among the lowest likelyhood of voting
group. This is interesting but it is not terrible hopeful for
the other side because traditionally these people just don't
come out -- it doesn't matter what. And in our final
analysis, when we determine the predicted turn-out, of course
this low level will be excluded.
G:
Right -- ARE you going to comment on the likelyhood of voting
in the thing or will the --
D:
Not yet
G:
I see so the lead will just be
D:
No, we have to get up to date registration figures and registration
in some states is still going on
G:
It closes this week as .I recall
D:
Yeah, so (1) we'll get the registration levels and (2) we'll
be using our battery questions, we'll be determing the degree
of interest in the election and simply what is turning out. As
page 3
you know, it' one thing to be registered to vote and it's
another thing getting there.
G:
That's very interesting -- Are you guys in the field now?
D:
Let's see, I'm trying to calm down two little kids I can't
even think--you know Gordon, Ive just drawn a blank -- we've had so
darn many surveys go out in the last week that I just
some of
them have been commercial ones.
G:
Well, you were talking about doing it weekly and I was
just curious as to whether or not you were doing it this
week-end or not.
D:
If you just give me a minute, I think it will flash. Trying to
look at dates here. There's interviewing going on now.
G:
Currently?
D:
I'm very, I'm almost positive -- I could let you know this
afternoon.
G:
I would appreciate that very much -- it would be interesting to
know what the interview dates were and sp forth. What else is of
note?
D:
I can't think of anything Gordon -- once again, I was away
yesterday and what decisions were made yesterday -- but I'm
pretty sure, I'm positive we 11 be going with the break downs
and the final figure, the quarter final figure, on--Monday --
the same date the Yankelovich comes out incidentally.
G:
Any information on the Yankelovich?
D:
No, Jack Rosenthal at the TIMES wouldn't give me any but he
made one comment that was interesting to me -- he said that
he asked me if ours were coming out Sunday or Monday, and I
said Monday and he sounded a little but perplexed about it
because it was the same day and when I told him the interviewing
days he said -- he sort of sighed with relief and said "Oh that's
great-- at least we have a couple of dates on you anyway.
G:
So they are more recent?
D:
They are more recent and it would look to me on the basis of his
comments that perhaps he has got a slightly different figure.
G:
Of course, Yankelovich said up in Cambridge, Mass. the other day
that the %'s were going, to stay pretty close to what they are now.
D:
Well, that could be anything within 5 points.
G:
Which is kind of interesting -- did you get this
page 4
D:
What do you think of this Yankelovich material?
G:
Well, it's interesting that he goes after all the big
states
they have a disadvantage of doing it by telephone
but alot of the stuff in the primaries was sure accurate.
D:
Which, incidentally, telephone interviewing in an election
situation is very, very dangerous.
G:
Yeah, well ---- he
D:
We tried it for four years ago, just to test our service against
the telephone method and we found ourselves going way off base
on telephone.
G:
How -- are they alot higher?
D:
The telephone figures showed alot higher for the President,
G:
I see, more than the personal interview?
D:
I mean for the Republican, I should say for the Republican.
G:
I see.
D:
Alot of that had to do with the fact that the telephone
ownership tends to be a little higher among the more affluent,
you know, the better educated, the more likely to vote and
so on.
G:
Did you guys arrive at any % to break you down like you know,
4% or higher on an average or any of that.
D:
It was 5% higher we found.
G:
5% higher?
D:
You can figure that Dr. Gallup goes with that figure and I have
argued with him about that. I told him that there were kind of
balancing factors involved in it - I blamed it more on the high
no opinion than the reluctance of people to talk about it over
the phone - rather than any Republican or otherwise biased situation.
G:
Huh!
D:
But, I can't win their argument ---- but I stick with it. I did the
experiment -- it took me three months to put it together and I was
convinced that the figures that we were showing were accurrate
within the acceptable limits but that it was very difficult to
break that undecided down. We couldn't do it the way we do it
with the personal interview and the paper ballot.
Page 5
G:
Yeah, the guy actually looking him in the face and
asking him to put something on the card.
D:
Well, Gallup, Sr. has got a negative opinion of telephone
interviewing to begin with. He doesn't approve of it,
won't let us do it and I can't blame him in a sense, as long
as you have a personal interview going for you, you might
as well stick with it
Sindlinger I just disregard
entirely.
G:
Really? Why is that?
D:
Well, his opinion in 1968, if you look back, was rather
chabby. And, I tend to think in a situation where the
race is this clear cut at the present time, almost any
pollster, you know Strong Davies organization, could go
out and conduct (tape was changed )
I would look extremely carefully at what the telephone polls
show.
G:
Yeah, yeah Well, on the Sindlinger stuff, he claims that
he can pick up, by a masssive telephone interview and he can
elimante some of the sample problems. Cause he is telephone
interviewing constantly.
D:
Yeah, but ask him sometime whether that means free substitution
or not?
G:
What do you mean?
D:
Well, here is the thing -- let's say we had 500 telephone names
in front of us and we spent an entire weekend calling them - I
could guarantee that 25% of that sample you couldn't contact -
1) they wouldn't be home; 2) they would likely refuse, hang up on
you and so on -- SO what that means, he may be able to overcome
the sample problems, but what he is doing is he is freely
substituting which we don't allow.
G:
Yeah, I see.
D:
Although, that's I would guess the only thing you could
do in a telephone situation --- however, we had other ways
of doing it but his best bet would be of course to be to take
what is obtained and don't even look at the figures - just
take the demographics and then weight all the demographics to their
proper levels.
G:
Percentage within the population?
D:
Right, and then show the figures. But, I have a feeling that
page 6
what he does is to stick with his sample with the free
substitution. Now, I may be very wrong and I don't
want to indict his methodology but
G:
He also claims that he can pick up sort of a feel --- like after
McGovern's Vietnam speech, he thinks that alot of the people
picked up the phrases "Surrender" and "Apology for North Vietnam
and White Flag" and stuff which strikes us as questionable.
D:
Well, let's put it this way -- it strikes me as being alot
of crap to be perfectly honest with you -- let's face it --
do the figures show it?
G:
Well, he doesn't have any figures on it -- it's just sort of
like an open-ended question.
D:
Yeah, but I mean the overall figures don't show it -- in other
words, .he is not showing any great movement toward McGovern.
G:
No, No.
D:
So I would
people may be picking it up, but that's not the
important thing. The important thing in that sense is that
is it being picked up and influencing anybody. I mean I
don't care whether people would be saying Surrender or White Flag
or whatever. But, if it's not translating into a different
voter preference than the person might have had a week before,
it doesn't mean two cents.
G:
That's right, right.
D:
I think that you can get hung up on those things, when you're
asking open end questions you can always get that kind of reaction
from people but it's important to find out whether those reactions
were coming from people who were already supporting McGovern and
if that's the case, they might just be strengthening their own
views SO I would stay away from it.
G:
Yeah, that's interesting.
D:
It's easy for you people to get hung up on this sort of thing
because if he beats this home enough it becomes a worry factor
for you and I if he goes going to report data like that
I'd like to see him report it by population groups.
G:
Yeah, well he doesn't do that.
D:
He should though, usually.
G:
What about, do you think McGovern is having any affect on
this Corruption issue, your poll last week showed that Corruption
page 7
just wasn't the big thing. Do you think that this continued
hammering on this is going to make any difference?
D:
It's got to make some difference sure -- there's no doubt
about it. But to be perfectly honest with you, the way
the voters look at it, from what we found, was that why
should one side be making these charges against the other
side when they are both just as guilty.
G:
Right, all politicians
D:
All politicians are corrupt. (period) And the people know that
and the people feel that and being one myself, I know that.
G:
Gordon laughing
D:
But the fact is that as long as that continues the whole
of that feeling, you people are on safe ground. Right, wrong
or indifferent.
G:
That's interesting because, boy, he sure is putting alot of
his guns on that.
D:
I think if the question were asked and I wanted to ask it
but we just didn't have space for it, you know, Do you think
that Corruption is pretty widespread among both parties?
In other words, do you see much of a difference between the two
parties on the area of corruption. Would you say that one is
cleaner than the other? The public would probably show or reveal
that there is no difference at all that they are both corrupt.
G:
Yeah, I guess that is probably true, sort of the shame
D:
It's a shame but we in public life have to live with that idea.
G:
Yeah
are you going to go on this Key Precinct thing with some
of the issues -- similar to the issue handling release of last
Friday? Who can handle issues best or
D:
Right
this should be coming up soon, right.
I don' know whether we are actually going to be reporting it
but the figures will be available. Dr. Gallup likes to use it
for his own personal analysis and we use those as sort of
voting barometers.
G:
Cross checks.
D:
Right -- for example. if their changing, if the question is
Peace and Prosperity which I think are sort of meaningless
questions by themselves if they start showing a return to
the Democrats whereas the overall McGovern figure doesn't
page 8
change, I think it indicates an early warning signal that
very soon there may be a bigger movement toward McGovern.
We found that in 1968 in fact.
G:
Oh really - that the issues started to move?
D:
In other words, we saw the shift to Humphrey before the
figures began to shift and I know Gallup himself predicted
in early October when the race was still 15 points separating
the two and he predicted down to the wire contest.
G:
Any indication of that this time -- is there any shift?
D:
Well, yeah, there is a shift but it's the other direction.
G:
Away from McGovern - huh?
D:
Yeah; away from the Democrats, I mean. the Republicans for the
first time have a pretty substantial lead on both those questions
of keeping the country out of a major war and keeping the purse-
strings in sensible shape.
G:
Right, SO there is no indication of that issue shift leading
a shift on McGovern, huh?
D:
Right --- Yeah, we're doing -- I was with the American
Psychiatric Asso. yesterday and we're considering doing a
very interesting study - it probably won't be done after the
election we just can't get the machinery going in time but
it's going to be sort of based on the Eagleton situation and
how people regard public officials who have undergone such
mental treatment- whether or not the public thinks that men
in this condition can hold useful jobs --- or run for public
office and so on. It's going to be very interesting.
G:
It really would be fascinating.
D:
But, I don't think the results would be available until Feb.
or March. They work rather slow.
G:
Anything else of interest coming up? Are you going to try any
questions on the media or something -- there has been alot of
discussion, you know, the American Independent Party just
filed suit against CBS for non-coverage.
D:
I don't think they are going to do anything but I wouldn't let
it bother you.
G:
No, we're not too concerned but
D:
I think that you will probably find that between now and Nov. 4
or so, we'll be concentrating strictly on just the hard data
and breaks and so on.
page 9
G:
Trial heats? and the whole but.
D:
We have an interesting survey that we just completed among
College students.
G:
YEAH!
D:
Well, we have the trail heat on there. I hadn't seen the
data. It's 99 and 100 % commercial but we through a trial
heat on there just to liven things up a bit.
G:
Yeah, is this for NEWSWEEK?
D:
No, no, this is ours.
G:
OH!
D:
So I don't know what is going to happen. I haven't seen any
of the. data - as a matter of fact, I haven't even looked
at the question.
G:
Of course that's the strongest segment in the society and
he's going to all sorts of College Campuses.
D:
Well, it's interesting to see whether there isn't general
agreement among students and there probably won't be.
G:
No
D:
And the region of the country ought to be very interesting
in terms of the trail heats.
G:
Sure, when do you think you'll have those.
D:
I really have no idea - I just haven't followed it.
G:
Yeah, that would be an interesting survey to note because that's
been one the surprises in this election that McGovern didn't have
the youth vote all sewed up.
D:
One of the reasons I am reluctant to follow it is because I
don't think that they did a very good job in terms of voter
registration and likely hood of voting. It could represent
a very distorted figure.
G:
That's really a problem among college students because they all
claim that they are registered.
D:
And you really have no indication of what they are going to do.
G:
Exactly.
page 10
we
D:
Or where they are going to be in fact.
G:
Yeah, have you people, other than this likelyhood to vote,
gone after the sort of apathy question. The turn out and
the whole bit?
(Changing tape)
G:
So there's less interest in this campaign than in 1968?
D:
Yes, slightly less. But what will be reflected in the actual
turnout is another thing.
G:
Is it more of an attitude that they would just like to
have the campaign get over? Or, more of a just, they
D:
People, more and more, I think it is indicated by the
rise in the Independent figure, I think people are just
becoming jaded with Politics in general and I think that
is going to be a political fact of life ten years from now,
but I don't think it is going to have any. impact this year.
G:
What if the percentage of vote will be affected in any way
I mean if we are going to have a high or low turnout?
D:
I really couldn't tell you but I would guess that the turnout
should be somewhat the same as it was.
G:
Really? You think 60 % of the American public is an ingrained
voter?
D:
I think SO -- and I think if that happens that it's to your
advantage.
G:
I do too. Have you fellows picked up any data as to whether
it's to our advantage to have a high turnout VS. a low
turnout? It used to be that the Conservative candidate Lould have
a low turnout because his voters would get out whereas a Liberal
D:
candidate should have a high turnout because he would bring out
other various segments of the public. But there is some thought
now that the President has such broad support that the higher the
turnout the better.
D:
Well, I think you have to look at it in terms of the record
defection among the Democratic party these days. If these
people follow through with what they are saying today and do in
fact vote for President Nixon, then a higher turnout would
likely help. But if these people decide that they are for
Nixon today but they are just not going so far as to vote for
him but not for McGovern either, they sit it out, then a low
turnout would help you. But it's hard to say, you see we have
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
October 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN S
SUBJECT:
Gallup and Harris Surveys
Gallup.
Conflicting reports have been received from Bob Teeter and
John Davies. As you know, Davies reports that Gallup is
interviewing now (Oct 1-6) with the results to be reported
October 15. Davies says Gallup will run trial heats weekly
until November 7. Bob Teeter talked with Paul Perry at
Gallup. Perry claims that Gallup will interview Oct 6-8
and then do two more trial heat surveys at 10-day intervals.
Gallup may add a last minute survey if the margin begins to
narrow. Perry would not tell Teeter about any scheduled
release dates. Perry told Teeter that on Monday, October 9,
Gallup would release a college study. I have been trying
to reach John Davies to confirm this.
Harris
Colson was to receive the trial heats from Harris' mid-week
survey this morning. If Colson has Harris' schedule for
trial heats for the rest of the campaign, he has not told
Dick Howard.
Davies H - 609-394-8736
H-60-33 10/10
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - Tuesday, October 10, 1972
S - Hello, John, how are you?
D - OK, how are you doing?
S - Good. Can you talk a minute?
D - Sure can.
S - Uh - you said you might have a chance to check the actual computer
sheets on the matter we discussed.
D - Nothing changed yet.
S - So, we're still at 60-33?
D - So far. Right.
S - Do you know the exact polling dates yet - you mentioned it might
shift from just over the weekend.
I
The exact polling dates would have been - you know I still can't
give you that, Gordon.
S - OK.
D - I'm not sure of it yet. I'll check those points out. I won't
know anything, as it turns out, until tomorrow morning first thing.
S - OK.
D - Cause they're working on some other projects and we're not going to
need it until tomorrow morning. So -
S - OK. Very good.
D - If you can give me a ring earlier tomorrow morning around 9:30 or so
because I may be out of here by 10:30.
S - OK - I'll do that. One other thing - have you noticed any of the
demographics on the Catholics or the Jews
- 2 -
D - I haven't seen any demographics yet.
S - OK. Because Harris you know notes today that the Blacks are the only
group that's moving and so we're wondering if that is supported in
your data also.
D - - Not yet.
S - All right. Anything else of note?
D - I can't think of anything.
S - And we're going to go on that Thursday release on "Who can best handle"?
D - Right.
.
S - Do you have those figures by any chance?
D - Those figures will be available this afternoon. You can get those
by calling George.
S - OK. I'll do that.
D - I won't be here this afternoon.
S - OK. I'll call him.
D - OK. About 3 o'clock I would suggest.
S - I'll try it then.
D - Very fine.
S - Thanks a lot.
D - OK.
S - Bye, John.
NIXON-McGOVERN DEMOGRAPHICS
W3-9/5-16
NIXON
0-10/6-8 0-9/29-10/1 59
H-8/28-9/1
McCOVE
10-9/29-10/1
0-10/6-8
H-8/28-9/1
w3-9/5-16
N
NATIONAL
57
63
62
59
61
59
34
29
32
31
33
28
25
9
8
6
10
6
13
16
SEX
Male
58
63
61
58
58
65
62
33
29
33
32
36
25
24
9
8
6
10
6
10
14
Female
56
63
64
59
58
53
56
35
29
31
30
30
32
27
9
8
6
11
6
15
17
AGE
18-24
47
52
44
52
55
49
47
44
50
46
40
41
6
4
6
2
5
10
25-49
58
59
50
64
63
60
34
34
41
29
22
24
8
7
9
6
15
16
50+
59
65
61
61
62
57
61
28
26
29
25
31
30
20
13
9
10
14
7
13
19
EDUCATION
8th grade
52
56
56
52
51
56
53
36
36
38
34
41
29
25
12
8
7
14
8
15
22
High School
58
66
67
60
65
61
61
31
26
26
29
30
24
25
11
8
7
11
5
15
14
College
58
63
66
59
61
63
62
37
31
32
33
35
30
27
5
6
3
8
4
7
11
UNION
49
56
56
55
52
58
55
40
34
39
34
42
31
28
11
10
5
11
6
11
17
RACE
White
62
67
67
64
67
64
63
29
25
26
26
28
25
21
11
8
7
10
5
11
16
Black
16
22
25
13
10
24
31
77
67
74
75
82
52
53
7
11
2
12
8
24
16
RELIGION
Catholic
55
62
63
58
52
52
61
33
27
31
31
40
37
22
12
11
6
11
8
11
17
Protestant
68
74
66
71
70
66
64
24
20
29
20
26
20
22
8
6
5
9
4
14
14
Jewish
46
49
32
37
32
32
44
43
56
39
51
37
10
8
15
24
17
31
INCOME
Under $5,000
52
56
58
53
44
47
39
36
35
37
44
32
9
8
8
10
12
21
$5-9,999
55
58
59
54
35
32
35
33
10
10
6
13
64
58
23
28
13
14
$10-14,000
58
70
65
64
31
23
29
27
11
7
6
9
$15,000+
65
71
72
66
67
75
30
24
25
27
28
13
5
5
4
7
5
12
POLITICS
Republican
87
93
89
95
91
90
10
5
7
4
4
3
3
2
4
1
5
7
Democrat
38
43
41
32
37
42
53
47
48
61
47
41
9
10
11
7
16
17
REGION
East
58
60
61
56
52
57
33
34
30
34
36
26
9
6
9
10
12
17
Midwest
53
64
58
53
58
55
36
29
38
34
30
29
11
7
4
13
12
16
South
65
70
67
70
70
69
67
27
19
27
22
24
17
20
8
11
7
8
6
14
13
West
55
58
60
59
54
57
39
34
35
32
33
25
6
8
4
9
13
18
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JUN
55-35-10
48-46-6
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
45-50-5
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-31- 7
AUG
48-37-4-2- 9
51-43- 6
50-44-6
57-31-12
29-65-6
45-29-18-8
64-30- 6
47-47-6
47-48-5
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2-
9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
47-46-7
29-65-6
43-28-21-8
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
45-49-6
OCT
*50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
52-40-8
48-48-4
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
46-49-5
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
48-49-3
32-61-7
DEC
Actual
(Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
43.4%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
44.4
42.0
50.1
61.1
42.7
(Other)
5.3
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5
* Checks with John Davies at Gallup indicate this figure is unavailable.
Their records do not have the No Opinion for the second October poll in 1948.
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JAN
53-47
FEB
49-34-11-
6
MAR
50 -50-47-47-5
APR
47-53
46-31-15- 8
45-32-16- 7
MAY
46-54
48-39-12
49-51
53-34-13
JUN
55-35-10
51
49
48-46
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
115.50-5
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
48
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-37-7
AUG
51-43- 6
53-47
50-44-6
48-37-4-2- 9
57-31-12
29-65-6
50 50-47-47-6
45-29-18-8
64-30-6
47-48-5
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2- 9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
49-51
29-65-6
51 4947-46-7 32-68-0
43-28-21-8
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
#8 45-49-6
OCT
avait
50-44-4-2- **
45-38-17
52-40-8
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
55-45-0
47-53
46-49-5
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
$
32-61-7
48-49-3
DEC
Actual (Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
44.4
43.4%
42.0
50.1
61.1
(Other) 5.3
42.7
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5
Onecks with John Davies at Gallup
and F indicate this figure is unavailable
Their records do not have the no openien
per the Second October poel in 1948,
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1948
DATE
Dewey
Truman
Wallace
Thurmond Undecided
July 31
48
36
5
10
17
August 21
48
37
4
2
9
September 26
46
39
4
2
9
October 16
46
40
4
2
8
October 20
50
44
4
2
0
November I
55.5
44.5
Oct. 31
49.5
445
4
2
0
Actual Vote:
Republican
21,991,291
45.1 %
Democrat
24,179,345
49.6%
Other
2,623,190
5.3 %
k
1952
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Eisenhower
Kefauver
Undecided
May 30-June 4
55
35
10. ( no % available
on Stevenson in
this one)
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July 25-30
45
43
12
August 23-28
51
43
6
September 6-11
51
42
7
September 28-
October 3
45
38
17
Actual Votes and Percentage:
Republican:
33,936,234
55.1%
Democrat:
27,314,992
44.4%
Other:
299,692
.5%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1956
DATE
Eisenhower
Stevenson
Undecided
July (pre convention)
61
37
2
27
September 8
52
41
7
October 9
52
40
8
October 26
55
45
November 1
59.5
40.5
Actual Vote:
Republican
35,590,472
57.4%
21,991,291
Democrat
24,179,345
26',022,752
43.0%
Other
2,623,190
413,684 6% 9.
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1964
DATE
LBJ
Goldwater
Undecided
July 10
76
20
4
August 23
65
29
6
September 16
65
29
6
September 27
68
32
October 18
64
29
7
November 2
61
32
7
Actual Vote:
Republican
27, 178, 188
38.5 %
Democrat
43, 129, 566
61.1 %
Other
336,838
4%
1968
DATE
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinior
June 29-July 3
35
40
16
9
July 19-21
40
38
16
6
August (pre Convention)
45
29
18
8
September 3-7
43
31
19
7
September 20-22
43
28
21
S
September 27-30
44
29
20
7
October 3-12
43
31
20
6
.
October 17
44
36
15
5
October 31
42
40
14
4
Actual Vote:
Republican
31,785,480
43.4%
Democrat
31,274,166
42.77
Amer. Ind.
9,906,473
13.570
Other
244,756
.470
1968
SEPTEMBER 3-7
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
No Opinion
NATIONAL
43
31
19
7
SEX
Male
43
27
24
6
Female
44
34
14
8
X
RACE
White
46
27
20
7
Non-white
EDUCATION
College
56
26
10
8
High School
41
29
22
8
Grade School
36
39
18
7
OCCUPATION
Professional & Bus.
53
24
16
7
White Collar
51
29
13
7
Farmers
45
15
29
11
Manual Worker
35
35
22
8
AGE
21-29
43
33
18
6
30-49
42
31
19
8
50-
45
30
19
6
RELIGION
Protestant
47
25
22
6
Catholic
37
41
12
10
POLITICS
Republican
89
3
7
1
Democrats
10
63
17
10
Independents
39
20
33
8
REGION
East
45
35
8
12
Midwest
50
29
16
5
South
29
26
39
6
West
51
33
10
6
INCOME
$10,000 +
55
25
14
6
$7,000+
47
29
18
6
$5,000-6, 999
45
29
18
8
$3-4,999
34
33
21
12
Under $3,000
36
39
20
5
COMMUNITY SIZE
1 million
46
35
9
10
500,000 +.
44
36
11
9
50,000 - 499,999
43
37
13
7
2,500-49,999
44
27
24
5
Under 2,500
42
22
29
7
Gallup Trial Heats
1972
Nixon
McGovern No Opinion
July 30
56
37
7
July 14-17
56
37
7
June 16-19
53
37
10
May 26-29
53
34
11
11
GALLUP TRIAL HEATS
Nixon
Muskie
Wallace
NotSure
April 28-May 5 (last one) 972)46
30
16
8
March 24-7 , 1972
46
36
14
4
February, 1972
43
42
10
5
January 7-10, 1972
43
W
42
12
3
November 19-22, 1971
44
41
10
5
October 8-11
43
35
13
9
August 20-23, 1971
42
36
11
11
May 7 -10
39
41
12
8
March 12-14
43
39
12
6
January 9-10, 1971
44
44
9
3
December 5-6, 1970
44
43
9
4
June 19-22
43
36
13
8
January 30-Feb 2, 1970
47
35
13
5
September 12-15, 1969
49
34
11
6
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
1972
DATE
Nixon
McGovern
Wallace
Not Sure
July 14 - 17
46
33
18
4
June 16 - 19
17
45
32
18
5
May 26 - 29
43
30
19
8
April 28 - May 1
43
35
15
7
February
49
34
11
6
November 1971
49
33
12
6
Gallup Trial Heats
Nixon
HHH
Wallace
Not Sure
June 16-19 (last one)
47
28
18
7
May 26-29
43
26
22
9
April 28-May 1
45
34
15
6
March 24-7
46
35
15
4
February
46
39
10
5
November 1971
47
37
12
4
1%
TRIAL HEATS -- Gallup
DATE
Nixon
Kennedy
Wallace
Not Sure
April 15-16 (most recent)
46
36
12
6
February 1972
47
39
9
5
November 1971
44
41
10
5
1%
August 1971
43
38
10
9
May 1971
42
41
10
7
March 1971
46
38
11
5
January 1971
47
38
9
6
December 1970
47
37
11
5
January 1970
49
35
11
5
September 1969
53
31
10
6
July 1969
52
36
9
3
April 1969
52
33
10
7
1972
HARRIS TRIAL HEATS
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
August, 1972
57
34
9
July
55
35
10
June
54
38
8
May
48
41
11
April
54
34
12
March
59
32
9
HARRIS SURVEY
Ninon
McGovern Not Sure
Nixon
McGovern
Not Sure
Mixon
McGovern Not Street
Nition
(May 9-10, 1972)
(June 10-15,1972)
(July 1-6, 1972)
(August 2-3, 1972)
(1385 likely voters)
(1401 likely voters)
(1901 likely voters)
(1630 likely votor ;)
57
34
Nationwide
46
41
11
54
38
6
55
35
10
9
58
33
D.d:
$
47
1]
51
42
7
53
37
10
9
53
35
11
Milwest
46
43
11
54
39
7
54
36
10
65
27
8
South
59
30
11
61
27
12
62
27
11
53
39
6
West
47
44
9
49
45
6
45
45
10
68
26
6
Deep South
57
34
9
-
-
-
62
27
11
62
29
9
Border States
62
24
14
-
-
-
60
23
17
50
42
E
Cities
33
49
13
44
49
7
45
45
10
57
33
10
Subtotal
4S
41
11
56
38
9
57
33
10
62
31
:-
Towns
53
36
11
61
32
7
65
26
9
62
28
10
Rural
57
36
7
59
33
8
57
31
12
53
-13
is
18-29
46
48
6
41
55
4
46
46
S
58
34
8
30-15
47
44
9
58
34
$
56
34
10
59
28
13
51
34
15
59
30
11
59
29
12
52
30
12
46
37
17
51
37
12
49
34
17
58
31
11
i. school
47
41
12
56
35
9
54
35
11
58
37
5
College
50
43
7
53
42
5
58
36
6
53
33
9
Mon
49
41
10
53
39
8
57
33
10
56
35
9
Wenten
47
42
11
54
38
8
52
37
11
16
77
7
Parch
21
62
17
27
74
4
24
64
12
62
29
9
White
51
39
10
57
35
S
59
31
10
52
39
9
Under $5,000
48
39
13
40
51
9
44
40
16
55
35
10
$5,000-9,999
51
39
10
57
37
6
54
37
9
58
31
11
$ .0,000-14,999
51
39
10
54
38
8
60
32
8
65
30
5
49
43
8
64
29
7
65
29
6
49
-40
11
Union Members
35
53
12
46
44
10
50
39
11
S7
10
3
Republican
S2
14
4.
86
11
3
87
10
3
38
53
2
Democrat
29
59
12
36
55
9
36
53
11
60
25
15
endopendent
43
42
15
54
37
9
5+
34
12
55
30
12
Unitille
44
46
10
54
40
6
54
36
10
68
24
00
38
33
9
66
25
9
66
25
9
46
44
10
39
$1
10
22
68
10
31
58
11
HARRIS SURVEYS
Nixon McGovern Demographic Study
May 9-10, 1972
June 10-15, 1972
July 1-6, 1972
August 2-3, 1972
PAGE 1
Nixon McGovern Trial Heats: 1972
August
July
June
May
April
March
PAGE 2
IMM
UNCLAS
DAC
GPS
PRECEDENCE
CLASSIFICATION
TO: LARRY HiGBY
FOR COMMCENTER USE ONLY
LDX 688
PAGES /
TTY
CITE
FROM: GORDON STRACHAN
DTG 3119202
INFO:
RELEASED BY: BD
TOR: 3119242
SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS:
GI E 918 Md If : SAV 21.
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JUN
55-35-10
48-46-6
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
45-50-5
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-31- 7
AUG
48-37-4-2- 9
51-43- 6
50-44-6
57-31-12
29-65-6
45-29-18-8
64-30-6
47-47-6
47-48-5
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2- 9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
47-46-7
29-65-6
43-28-21-8
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
45-49-6
OCT
*50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
52-40-8
48-48-4
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
46-49-5
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
48-49-3
32-61-7
DEC
Actual
(Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
43.4%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
44.4
42.0
50.1
61.1
42.7
(Other)
5.3
.5
.6
.4
.
.4
(AIP) 13.5
*
Checks with John Davies at Gallup indicate this figure is unavailable.
Their records do not have the No Opinion for the second October poll in 1948.
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF
Public Opinion
PRINCE
U.S.POSTAGE
JUL17'72
PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540
N.J
111 68 :
*************
METER
P.D.629397
Recd
7/21
FIRST CLASS
MR. GORDON STRACHAN
WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500
SPECIAL DELIVERY.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, October 8, 1972
Watergate Incident Influencing Few Voters
"Corruption in Government' Not
A Major Issue With U.S. Voters
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
-on the basis of the Watergate sit-
living. Next most frequently named
uation. Only one Democratic defector
are international problems in general
PRINCETON, N. J., Oct. 7 - Al-
in twenty feels that the incident is a
(by 10 per cent), drug use and abuse
though Sen. George McGovern is hit-
strong reason for voting for McGovern.
(by 9 per cent) and crime and lawless-
ting hard on the theme that the Nixon
ness (by 8 per cent).
administration is corrupt, only a small
"Corruption" Was Big
percentage of the electorate believe cor-
Far down the list is "corruption in
Issue in '52 Campaign
ruption in government to be one of the
government" (named by 3 per cent in
Pollution/the
The issue of corruption at the present
the latest survey and by about equal
environment
nation's top problems.
4
time appears to be of no great concern
proportions of Republicans and Demo-
Poverty, welfare
3
A focal point of McGovern's attack
to voters, nor has it played a major
crats).
Corruption in
is the Watergate incident. which con-
role in recent presidential election cam-
certis the alleged "bugging" of the
Little change is noted in the public's
government
3
paigns. The last time this issue was
Lack of national
Democratic party's headquarters in
in the forefront was in the 1952 presi-
top priorities between the latest survey,
unity/purpose
2
"ashington. The latest survey shows
dential campaign.
conducted in late September, and the
Problems of youth
2
that while half of all voters (52 per
At the beginning of the fifties there
previous survey, conducted in July.
Moral problems/
cent) say they have heard or read about
were repeated charges of corruption
This question was asked to measure
lack of religion
2
this incident, only about a third are
and bribery in Washington. In 1952
the public's top concerns:
Miscellaneous/
able to play back the key facts of the
the anti-Truman forces took up the
situation.
What do yoH think is the most
other responses
9
cry of "Korea, Communism and Cor-
important problem facing this coun-
No opinion
3
ruption." A survey of GOP county
Among those who have heard or
try today?
chairmen in 1952 showed corruption
109%**
read about the incident. eight in ten
in Washington regarded as the
Following are the results of the lat-
say that W atergate is not a strong rea-
est audit:
Includes "unemployment," "bigh
most effective argument the GOP could
son for voting for McGovern. Even
taxes."
use against the Democrats.
2 song Democrats IN the survey. opin-
Top Problems
Total exceeds 100 per cent since
ion is 3-10-1 on the side that the inci-
War and Inflation Named
Facing Nation?
some persons named more than one
dent is not a strong reason for voting
Top Problems Today
Vietnam war
27%
problem.
for the Democratic nominee.
When voters in the latest survey are
*Inflation, high cost of living 27
The survey findings reported today
Furthermore, as revealed by the sur-
asked to indicate what they believe to
International
are based on personal interviews con-
ver, McGovern can expect to win back
be the nation's top problem, equal pro-
problems (gen.)
10
ducted in more than 300 scientifically:
few Democratic defectors - that is,
portions of voters (27 per cent) name
Drug use, abuse
9
selected localities across the nation dur-
Democrats who currently prefer Nixon
the Vietnam war and the high cost of
Crime/lawlessness
8
ing the period September 22-25.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, October 6, 1972
McGovern Winning Back Defectors Makes
Gains Among Catholics, Labor and Youth
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
PRINCETON N. J.. Oct. 5 Sen.
George McGovern's success in reduc-
ing President Nixon's lead nationally
is accounted for in large measure by
his success in winning back Democratic
defectors. In the latest survey, 32 per
29. who were solidly in his camp dur-
cent of Democrats prefer Nixon. while
ing the spring and early summer, but
in the earlier survey the figure was 40
The following table shows the vote
who began to slide away after the
per cent.
by groups in the latest survey, based
Eagleton disclosures and then went
over to Nixon's side following the
on the choices of registered voters:
Professional &
McGovern's headway in winning
Business
68
*
29
3
back Democratic defectors is reflected
GOP convention.
Un-
Clerical and
in his improved standing among two
Nixon McG. Other dec.
Sales
62
32
2
The race today among this group of
4
groups which are traditionally Demo-
NATIONAL
61
5
young voters is close, with 52 per cent
33
I
Manual workers 57
35
I
7
ratic in their presidential preferences
but have been in Nixon's camp since
favoring Nixon and 46 per cent Mc-
Republicans
95
4
I
Govern. The previous survey showed
Men
58
36
I
5
the Democratic Convention- Catholics
Democrats
32
61
I
6
Women
Nixon with a 62 to 35 per cent lead.
64
30
I
5
and labor union voters.
Independents
67
25
2
6
Nixon Leads With
South
70
24
I
In the latest survey, Nixon leads
5
Catholics
8
All Groups But Two
52
40
Non-South
59
36
*
5
McGovern among Catholics by 52 to 40
Protestants
70
26
I
3
per cent. In the previous survey (late
Despite McGovern's gains in recent
Less than one-half of one per cent
August) Nixon's margin was consider-
weeks, President Nixon continues to
Labor union
ably wider, G2 to 29 per cent.
hold leads in all major regions of the
Today's results are based upon per-
families
52
42
*
6
sonal interviews conducted in more than
An upturn in McGovern's fortunes
nation and with all major groups in
has also been recorded among labor
the population, with the exception of
300 scientifically selected communities
18-29 years
52
46
I
2
with a total sample of 1,505 respon-
union families. In the latest survey
Blacks and Jews.
30-49 years
65
29
I
,
dents, of whom 1,168 were registered.
members of labor union families give
As reported Sunday, Nixon leads
50 & older
62
31
I
6
Interviewing was conducted September
Nixon a 52 to 42 per cent lead over
McGovern among registered voters na.
22-25.
his rival. while in the previous survey,
tionwide by the vote of 61 to 33 per
Whites
67
28
*
5
Nixon held a 61 to 30 per cent lead.
cent with one per cent for other can-
Non-whites
TO
82
2
6
This question was asked:
didates and five per cent undecided.
If the presidential election were
Also Winning
The previous survey showed Nixon
College
being beld TODAY, which candidate
Back Youth
leading 64 to 30 per cent with six
background 61
35
I
3
would you vote for McGovern,
Senator McGovern also appears to
per cent for other candidates or unde-
High school 65
30
*
5
the Democrat or Nixon, the Republi-
be winning back young voters, 18 to
cided.
Grade school 51
41
I
7
can?
>
THE WASHINGTON POST
Sunday, Oct. I. 1972
A9
Gallup Says McGovern Is Closing Gap, Lags by 28 Points
By David S. Broder
A private pollster who ex-
a 59-to-36 per cent lead-or a
over McGovern in the South
In 1968, Hubert H. Hum
turnaround from the Demo-
mittee to Re-Elect the Presi-
states have shown the Presi-
Washington Post Staff Writer
amined the Harris and Gallup
spread of 23 points, just about
during September.
That
phrey trailed Mr. Nixon by 15
cratic nominee's summer
dent indicated no sense of
dent's margin holding or, in
The Gallup Poll has one-
results said yesterday that
what Caddell measured.
means the Nixon losses out-
points in the late September
losses.
alarm over Life poll.
some cases, increasing.
firmed the evidence that Sen.
they indicated the "impossible
Moreover, Alee Gallup, a
side the South were greater
Gallup Poll. Humphrey man-
"I'd be willing to bet any
"Whether you are looking at
The Iowa Poll. published in
George McGovern closed the
task" McGovern faces in the
spokesman for the polling or
than 6 per cent.
aged to make up all but 1
amount of money the gap will
the Sindlinger Poll. showing Sunday's editions of the Des
gap on President Nixon during
remaining five weeks of the
ganization, said in an Inter-
Gallup said that there was
point of that 15-point spread
continue to narrow." Gallup
the Pre: int's lead at 41
M Register-Tribune,
September but still trailed
campaign.
view yesterday, that Mc-
no historical precedent for a
by election day, but his gains
said, noting that there are still
points, or the Gallup Poll at 28
shows Mr. Nixon widening his
him by very wide margin six
However, the Gallup organi-
Govern was gaining more rap.
candidate overcoming a Sep-
came from the undecided vot-
large numbers of self-identi
per cent, you are looking at
lead over McGovern by KL
weeks before Election Day.
zation noted that the race
idly in the non-southern states
tember deficit as great as
ers and backers of George
fied Democrats who are not
figures of historically unprece
points since August.
The Gallup survey released
looks closer if the South-
in September than the overall
McGovern appears to have.
Wallace, who is not a candi-
yet in the McGovern column.
dented proportions," he said.
The September figures. in
today shows:
which seems to be securely in
figures would indicate.
In 1964, Barry Goldwater
date this year.
"I don't think he'll take him
"Because they are unprece-
Iowa gave Mr. Nixon 64 per
Nixon
61%
Mr. Nixon's column-is elimi-
Gallup said he could not yet
trailed Lyndon B. Johnson by
Alec Gallup said that he and
(Mr. Nixon), but think it will
dented, we. of course, anticl-
cent of the vote and McGos
McGovern
33
nated from the national totals.
furnish an exact breakdown,
30 points in the late Septem-
his collea felt "almost cer-
get close enough to give the
pate some downward drift."
ern. 29. with 1 per cent for
Others
1
Outside the South, the latest
but the survey showed Mr.
ber Gallup Poll and was
tain' that McGovern's Septem-
Republicans scare."
It is known. however, that
other candidates and 6 per
Undecided
5
Gallup figures give Mr. Nixon
Nixon had widened his lead
beaten by 22.8 per cent.
ber gains marked a definite
A spokesman for the Com-
recent Republican polls in key cent undeckled.
The survey. taken Sept. 22-
23, shows a 3-point gain for
McGovern and a 3-point drop
for Mr. Nixon from the pre-
vious Gallup Poll conducted
Aug 26-27.
It was in line with the latest
Harris Survey, released last
Monday, which also showed a
28-point spread between the
candidates and a 6-point re-
duction in the rap during the
previous month.
Harris credited Mr. Nixon
with a 59-to-31 per cent lead.
and Gallup said it was 61-10-33
per cent. But with both sur-
veys using approximately 1,500;
interviews, the difference in
the figures was statistically In-
significant.
McGovern has insted that
the polls are lagging be hind a
shift in the public mood, and
released a survey by his own
polister. Patrick Caddell. early
this week which put the Presi-
dent's margin at 22 per cent.
Whichever figure one ac-
cepts. the political distance
McGovern has to travel to
overhaul Mr. Nixon before
election day is enormous.
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, October 1, 1972
IMPORTANT
Note to Editors:
Because of the great interest as to whether
the gap between McGovern and Nixon in the poll
findings is beginning to close, the lead for
the Sunday release --- with our latest national
results -- will be telegraphed to you Saturday
for Sunday release. It will be sent press rate
collect. Complete breakdowns will follow in
the next report scheduled for early next week.
The results will be based upon interviewing
conducted through Monday, September 25.
*
*
*
(Pick up after lead)
The trend in voter preference is revealed by trial heat: results covering
the last six months. McGovern's strongest showing occurred in late April nd
early May, following his victories in the Wisconsin and Massachusetts primaries.
At that point he trailed President Nixon by only ten points. Following the
Eagleton affair, however, the gap between the two candidates widened as the
record of Gallup Poll findings indicates:
Nixon
McGovern Undecided
%
010
%
September 22-25
August 26-27
64
30
6
August 5-12
57
31
12
July 28-31
57
32
11
July 14-17
56
37
7
June 16-19
53
37
10
May 26-29
53
34
13
April 28 - May 1
49
39
12
The biggest surprise to date in the presidential contest has been Nixon's
strength among young voters. Early in the race McGovern strategists counted on
winning a large majority of the vote of the nation's 25 million prospective new
voters. In fact, some estimates of this majority were as high as 10 million
votes - enough to overcome the lead of most candidates in presidential cam-
paigns.
The enthusiasm for McGovern on the college campuses of the nation -- SO
marked in the early months of 1972 -- has faded considerably; and the vote of
those who have never attended college has favored Nixon.
In a special survey of the 18 to 24 year-olds, conducted for Newsweek by
the Gallup Organization, it was found that 59% of those who did not attend.
college had not bothered to register as of late August; while in the case of
those who were enrolled in college or had attended college, 71% were registered.
In the Newsweek study of 18-24 year-olds re-interviews conducted during the
middle of September revealed that McGovern had not been able to register any
gains in this group during the first two weeks of September. Nixon's lead
over McGovern among likely young voters in late August was 50% to 46%, as compared
with 52% to 43% in mid-September.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Sept. 28, 1972
More Voters See McGovern Than
Nixon With "Credibility Gap'
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
ing himself on every campaign issue -
he is trying to be something for every-
As the above table indicates, non-
PRINCETON, N.J Sept. 27 - Al-
body."
whites are the only major population
though McGovern's party strategists
have sought to make political capital
One who thinks McGovern is more
group which credits McGovern with
being more sincere or believable than
by nhing a credibility gap to Nixon,
sincere and believable than Nixon is
Nixon; they give McGovern a 2-to-T
the President is seen as "more sincere
a 29-year old architect from Atlanta,
Ga.: "McGovern has demonstrated that
edge over Nixon on this question.
and believable" than McGovern by a
6-10-2 margin with the nation's voters.
he is not about to be dictated to by the
A total of 1534 adults, 18 and older,
power brokers. He says what he be.
were interviewed in person in this sur-
Findings, up to this point in the
Even among McGovern's own party
lieves and I trust in him."
vey, which was conducted in more than
1972 race, indicate that President
members, many see Nixon as the more
Following is the question asked and
300 scientifically selected localities
Nixon's personal popularity has re-
subcere and believable" of the two
the results:
across the nation during the period of
mained fairly constant in the three
candidates
August 24-27.
presidential races in which he has en-
In the case of young voters. 18-29
Which candidate - Nixon or Mc-
gaged. In tests to date, Senator Mc-
years, on whom McGovern has pinned
Govern do you think is more sin-
The 'Charisma' Scale
Govern does appreciably better than
high hopes, Nixon wins by 1 sizable
cere, believable?
Nixon not only scores better in the
Goldwater in 1964, but slightly less
margin on this issue.
matter of credibility but he also tops
well than Humphrey in 1968.
Which Candidate More
the South Dakota senator in terms of
A young Pennsylv attorney had
Sincere, Believable
personal popularity.
The personal popularity of candi-
this to say about McGovern: "Tm a
Mc-
No
dates in elections since 1952 is reported
Denocrat but I find it difficult to sup-
To measure the personal popularity
port McGovern He started out like a
Nixon Govern Opin.
below. The figures represent the per-
of a candidate, the Gallup Poll em-
NATIONAL
centage of those interviewed who give
59
20
21
knight on a white charger but he has
plays a rating device known as the
%
%
%
the candidate the highest positive rat-
since succumbed to the disease which
Stapel Scale.
Whites
62
ing.
afflicts most politicians backing down
17
21
Non-whites
24
52
24
The Stapel Scale was first employed
1972 Nixon 39.8%-McGovern 23.4
on personal convictions to gain votes."
in the election campaign of 1952 to
Under 30
57
28
On the other hand, a middle aged
15
measure the public's enthusiasm for
1968 Nixon 37.5%-Humphrey 28.5
30.49 years
61
16
houses de commented: "Nixon has not
23
candidates apart from party considera-
1964 Johnson 48.6%-Goldwater 16.2
lived up to anything he ever said - $0
so & over
57
19
24
tions and campaign issues.
1960 Kennedy 41.6%-Nixon 39.7
I night as well take a chance on the
Republicans
85
5
10
This ro-point attitude scale provides
other guy."
Democrats
38
37
25
a measure of candidate "charisma" and,
1956 Eisenhower 56.7%
A student at an eastern college com-
Nixon backers
3
12
significantly, has pointed to the winner
Stevenson 33.8
85
mented "McGovern changes his opin-
McGovern
in every presidential election of the
1952 Eisenhower 47.2%
ion $0 much he is constantly contradict-
backers
6
65
29
last two decades.
Stevenson 37.0
MR. NIXON'S LEAD AMONG 18-TO 24-YEAR-OLDS
The President was running ahead of McGovern at the end of
August with variations by education and region and he
widened his lead somewhat in a recheck in mid-September.
Aug.
College
College
No
East
19-26
Midwest
South
West
Sept.
14-17
Nixon
50
48
54
39
41
70
48
52
McGovern
46
48
42
54
54
!
29
48
43
Others
1
2
3
*
*
2
1
Undecided
3
2
3
4
4
2
4
*less than 1 per cent
Douald Van
The Youth Vote: Nixon's Ahead
R
emember the Youth Vote? Remember
ers, the NEWSWEEK poll indicates that
those 25 million newly enfranchised
the higher the youth turnout, the more
Americans aged 18 to 24 who, about a
votes Mr. Nixon can expect to receive.
year ago, were being ballyhooed as the
The survey holds other surprises as well.
potential margin of victory in the 1972
Despite the fact that McGovern has
election? No one really expects the
made character and credibility twin
youth vote to be decisive anymore-es-
themes of his campaign, only a fraction
pecially given the lopsided look of the
of young voters see him as a man of prin-
Presidential race. But the battle to win
ciple and an almost equal number rate
Stokell registering UCLA students: f
young votes is on in earnest-and could
him as an "opportunist." While McGov-
produce surprising results.
em scores high on a number of supposed
for President ever since I can remember,
Young voters are being recruited by
"youth issues"-drugs, amnesty, women's
saying the war is going to be over," she
radio and signed up by registrars on
rights and abortion-these issues are rel-
says. "It's been just words and more
street corners and campuses and at pop
atively unimportant to young people
words. Who am I to judge ?" Accord-
concerts. Thousands of young people
when it comes to picking a President.
ing to the NEWSWEEK poll, 52 per cent
have enlisted in this 01 that political
Even Vietnam and the economy, which
of all the eligible new voters already
cause, millions have registered and plan
are their main concerns, seem to count
have signed the rolls and another 17 per
to cast their first vote this November.
for less than the general feeling of
cent say they are certain they will do so.
But the eager harvesters of young votes
"confidence" they have in Mr. Nixon's
At the current level of interest, however,
are being confronted by two striking dis-
leadership.
only 48 per cent of all the newly en-
coveries-and neither offers much con-
The poll results do offer some encour-
franchised young are likely to show up
solation to George McGovern. One of
aging signs for McGovern. He is running
at the polls, according to the NEWSWEEK
them is that the 26th Amendment has
well ahead of Mr. Nixon among young
survey. This would be well below the
produced no surge of youthful interest
voters in two key areas of the country,
average national turnout for all age
in this year's Presidential campaign: a
the East and the Midwest (see chart).
groups of 60-65 per cent in Presidential
great many young people, like their eld-
In the West, the two candidates are
elections.
ers, are bored and disillusioned by the
neck-and-neck. Only in the South does
Crimp? Perhaps most significant, young
whole affair. And the second discovery
Mr. Nixon have an enormous lead-and
people are not as eager to pitch into the
is that so far the 18- to 24-year-olds, like
McGovern strategists have virtually writ-
campaign as the McGovern forces had
their elders, prefer Richard Nixon.
ten off most of the South anyway. If,
hoped. Compared with a similar NEWS-
These are two of the principal findings
therefore, McGovern can strengthen and
WEEK poll in 1971, this year's survey indi-
of a special poll commissioned by NEWS-
mobilize his youth support in the North-
cates a decline of around 10 percentage
WEEK and conducted by The Gallup Or.
crn states, his main targets for eléctoral
points in the willingness of new voters
ganization. Based on a sample of 1,242
votes, then the youth vote could still
to work for a candidate or contribute
young people between the ages of 18
work in his favor over-all-for whatever
as little as $5 to his cause. This, even
and 24, the survey discovered that Mr.
that is worth. What's more, the poll
more than a low youth vote turnout,
Nixon leads Senator McGovern by 50 to
shows McGovern maintaining a strong
could put a crimp in the McGovern cam-
46 per cent of those likely to vote. And
lead among Catholic youth (57 to 40
paign, which counts on energetic young-
McGovern does not seem to be gaining
per cent) despite Mr. Nixon's efforts to
sters to compensate for a lack of big mon-
on the President; if anything, the trend
attract the "ethnic" vote. Among Protes-
ey. "McGovern is at the point where he
is the other way around. Part of the
tants, the President has an even stronger
no longer is an independent force in
poll's original sample (the main inter-
edge, however-63 to 34 per cent.
American politics," complains Barry Kell-
views were held in late August) was re-
But the most disappointing phenome-
man of Evanston, Ill., who worked for
checked in mid September. The results:
non among young voters this year, from
McGovern in the primary but now thinks
Mr. Nixon had widened his lead to 52
the candidates' point of view, is the de-
he may just go back to school. "He's a lib-
per cent VS. 43 per cent for McGovern.
gree of apathy. "From what I've seen,
eral force, but not a challenge to the sys-
The shift itself was statistically insignifi-
this is not the kind of year in which a
tem. I still support him
but he isn't
cant-it fell within the survey's margin of
young person can be politically inspired,"
going to take over the country." Both
error-but it was hardly good news for
says Penn Kemble of Frontlash, a union-
young people surveyed for the poll and
the McGovern campaign.
supported registration drive. Vermont
those interviewed by NEWSWEEK corre-
Worse yet for McGovern, who has
college coed Janice Parkington, 19, is a
spondents around the country often men-
been going all-out to register young vot-
case in point. "People have been running
tioned the Eagleton affair as one of their
18
Newsweek
NATIONAL AFFAIRS
numbers of young people believe that
the President (36 per cent) and McGov-
T
rying to energize the youth vote is a
project for both Presidential cam-
ern (35 per cent) would be best at
paigns and a mix of non-partisan regis-
handling the war. Mr. Nixon has the
tration programs such as Frontlash, foun-
edge on dealing with the high cost of
dation-hunded First Vote and the Youth
living (24 per cent to 19 per cent), but
Citizenship Fund, focused on minority
McGovern is thought more competent
groups. Besides the usual array of regis-
(23 to 14 per cent) in the area of job.
tration be itles on college campuses, these
and unemployment. McCovern also
groups at Llitzing parks, movie houses,
comes over as most capable of dealing
beaches, hars, rock concerts and super-
with issues involving the "youth culture
mark as to get to non-college youth. In
-amilesty for draft evaders, the legaliza-
San Francisco, California Student Vote is
tion of pot, abortion and women's rights.
distril nting posters with a taunting chal-
But one of the poll's most provocative
lengo May be they gave you the right
aspects is the light It sheds on young
to vote because they thought you'd nev-
voters' attitudes on supposed vouth is-
er use it. Prove them wiong!" In Chica-
sues. Far from being a unified, liberal
go, activist Rev. Jesse Jackson has zeroed
bloc on these questions, the young birn
in on black youth with adio spots and
out to be middle-roaders. They divided
high-school assembly programs that end
almost evenly on the legalization of That
with d. hamboyant Jackson leading a
rijuana, took a dim view of amnesty (59
march to the neighborhood registration
to 40) and women's lib. (Significantly,
center.
54 per cent of the young women sur-
At the Washington headquarters of
veyed disagreed with women's lib, as op-
the Concuittee for the Re-election of the
posed to only 44 per cent of the men.)
Preside nt, youth division director Ken
A 56 per cent majority favored legalized
Rietz, 31 would be satisfied to snare a
abortion, including 51 per cent of the
Catholics.
Confidence: Moreover, issues often do
THE KEY ISSUES
not seem to have much effect on young
Lester
people's choice of a candidate. "I can't
prontems facing .: country are
radio spots and political barbecues
think just of myself," explains 18-year-old
the mest important in declaring whom
Maggie Smartt of Houston, whose per-
to vote for. Which of J P problems
main sources of disillusionment. "It start-
sonal convictions run to ending the war,
would be handled particularly well
ed when McGovern wouldn't stand up
legalizing marijuana and abortions (she
by Mr. 11 von or Senator McGovern?
for Eagleton. And when he changed his
happens to be eight months pregnant-
Mar "CT Particularly
proposal for welfare," said a 23-year-old
and smgle), but who also plans to vote for
the President. "I have to think about the
Well by:
graduate student in Massachusetts who
has deserted to Mr. Nixon. "He's trying
majority," she says. "Most of those peo-
Retal
to WOO too many groups and watering
ple won't need an abortion-and they're
down his policies.'
not going to sit around and smoke dope.
PROPLEMS
1sow!
NOXIN
As expected, the NEWSWEEK survey
I guess I'm willing to make the sacrifice."
shows a sharp division between young
Whateve their particular stands on the
Vietnam War
39
36
35
voters who have had at least some col-
issues, the majority of young voters (by
lege education and those who haven't.
52 to 37 per cent) simply has more con-
Perhaps most important is the fact that
fidence in Richard Nixon than in George
High Cost
of Living
17
24
19
the college group, although outnum-
McGovern as the nation's leader. "I'm
bered by non-college youth, appears to
not crazy over Nixon," says a 22-year-old
Jobs,
be almost twice as likely to show up at
California business school graduate. "It's
Unemployment
11
14
23
the polls in November. Among those with
just that he's not done too bad."
at least some college background Mc-
Mr. Nixon's appeal is clearly not based
Drug Use
on personality; less than 1 per cent of
and Abuse
10
15
16
Govern and President Nixon are now
tied with 48 per cent each; in the other
the young people in the NEWSWEEK sam-
group, the President pulls ahead 54 to 42.
Crime and
ple mentioned that as a reason for sup-
Lawlessness
9
17
12
Mr. Nixon's strong standing in the col-
porting him. But the President does
ege crowd has been a source of elation
come across as clear-thinking and sin-
Pollution and
o Nixon organizers, who feared that the
cere, albeit too much of a politician (30
Environment
8
15
19
sheer unfashionability of Nixon support
per cent fault him on that score). George
would cost them votes on the campuses.
McGovern has a similar, moderately fa-
Taxes and
Tax Reform
4
13
19
Peer pressure, that was the hardest
vorable personal profile. He is seen as
thing to break, but I think we've done
more exciting, forward-looking and fair
t," savs Gary Hunt, 23, executive direc-
-but also, on balance, as an extremist
Defense Spending
3
10
19
or of Young Voters for the President in
prone to snap judgments. The most fas-
LOS Angeles. "Before, it was not popular
cinating contrast between the two men
0 be for the President: now it's easier."
is on the matter of sticking to principles.
School Busing
2
15
10
Like their elders, the 18-to-24s named
Richard Nixon, who has executed dra-
Victnam and the economy as the two top
matic-and politically advantageons-
Favoritism for
ssues III the campaign. In the NEWSWEEK
turnabouts in the field of foreign policy
Special Interests
4
6
urvey, 39 per cent named Victnam
and domestic economics, is praised by
Draft Evaders
S the national problem most important
*
35 per cent of the young people as a
and Deserters
7
10
0 consider in selecting a President. In
"man who sticks to his principles." Only
econd place was the economy, cited
18 per cent have similar praise for Me-
Women's Rights
*
4
8
y 26 per cent. But interestingly enough,
Govern -and 16 per cent take exactly
fietnam does not come across as a plus
the opposite view, finding him "too much
or George McGovern. Roughly similar
of an opportunist."
New than per cent
Donald Visit
Detober 2. 1972
bare 51 per cent of the youthful turnout.
PRIMARIES:
He has a 81 milhon budget to work with.
"The odds are 111 our favor HOW, says
Two-Time Loser
Rietz. who is au associate of Nixon me-
dia expert Hany Treleaven. "Nobody be-
Alland K. Lowenste hero of th
head us fourteen months ago when we
1965 "Damp Johnson" movement, Carer
said that 10Govern didn't have the
with 870 votes of victory agains
youh vote locked up. People spickered
Brooklyn's hawkish, fourter reterm Rep
and Lunghed while we went about build-
John J. Rooney last June 111 a Demo
ing our organization." With 100 full-time
cratic primary SO franght with irrego
state Young Voters for the President
larities at the polls that the court:
has set up branch offices in 17 states
ordered a rerun (Newswilk, Sept. 18)
and a separate college program in all 50.
Elated. the energetic liberal said he was
A speaker's bureau can call on the serv-
now sure to WIII the transph that, he
ices of 1,500 under-30 spokesmen who
insisted. had been stolen from him the
emphasize Mr. Nixon's ellorts to fight
first time. It didn't work out that way
drug addiction and preserve the environ-
Lowenstein lost last week's rematch by
ment, his order barring draftees from
2,415 votes-and reluctanth threw in
service in Vietnam and his "peace" mis-
the towel. Ilis name will still appear on
sions to Moscow and Peking.
the November ballot, as the nominee of
But in some areas where McGovern
the small Liberal Party. But the 43-year-
clearly dominates the youth vote, the
old former congressman-he was gerry-
Nivon strategy is apparently to lie low
mandered out of another seat on Long
and not stir up more interest or registra-
Peter Greenberg
Island in 1970-seemed stymied in his
tion. "We will thoroughly canvass our
Mardis: Sometimes a pantsuit
latest effort to find himself a new politi-
state and pick up young voters the same
cal foothold.
way we pick up all other voters," says
Houston. "So I have to make a few con-
Greg Gallagher, 25, executive director
cessions, like putting on a nice pair of
POLITICAL COMMERCIALS:
of the entire Nixon effort in Massachu-
slacks or a pantsuit. After all, I'm expect-
setts. "There are no special appeals or
ing a few concessions from them also."
events for youth planned."
On the Spot
In a sense, the Jer Mardises and the
McGovern has no flashy national youth
thousands of other young people who
Every Presidential election year, the
operation, but youthful workers provide
have been drawn actively into the polit-
nation's TV screens become showcases
much of the obvious muscle for his en-
ical process this year are more important
for the salesmanship of the latter-day
tire campaign-and the youth vote re-
than the over-all statistics of any poll or
wizards of American politics-the creators
mains a prime goal. Expectations have
perhaps even the final figures on how
of spot commercials for the candidates.
been significantly scaled down since last
young people actually vote in November.
Last week, the Republican and Demo-
year, however, when top strategist Fred
For despite the disillusionments among
cratic media men began displaying their
Dutton laid claim to a 13 million edge
young voters this year, despite the dis-
expensive mini-dramas for 1972-and the
among new voters. What registration di-
appointments to some in the currently
outlines of the TV strategies concocted
rector Anne Wexler wants now is merely
projected turnout, young people have
by the Nixon and the McGovern camps
2 million more than the President gets.
enlisted in this Presidential campaign in
began to come clear.
"Numbers," she says, "aren't nearly as
greater numbers than in any previous
The Nixon side opened its campaign
important as where the votes are cast,
one. Young people have been incorpor-
by trotting out the President's own Dem-
and they'll be in New York, Ohio. Penn-
ated into the nation's political process this
ocratic defector, former Treasury Secre-
sylvania and California."
year at nearly every level, and however
tary John B. Connally. In a blunt, five-
Volunteers: To gain that advantage,
the 1972 youth vote ultimately turns
minute commercial that was spotted in
McGovern has budgeted $1.2 million
out, this will be remembered as the first
the prime-time afterglow of "Marcus
for all voter registration and another
year that it made itself felt.
Welby, M.D.," Connally lashed out at
$150,000 especially for organizing young
George McGovern's call for cuts in de-
people. By canvassing every college cam-
fense spending and urged Democrats to
pus in the country, the McGovern forces
har the South Dakotan from the ranks of
also expect to sign up enough rehivigor-
such Presidential heroes as Franklin Roo-
ated volunteers to put close to 50,000
sevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhow-
canvassers into neighborhood streets
er, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.
every kend this rali. "They ve forgot-
Connally's attack was part of a careful
ten what Nixon has done for four years,"
Republican strategy of brandishing the
says Greg Stokell, 20, of Los Angeles,
Texan's Democrats for Nixon organization
a veteran McGovern worker. "All you
as the cutting edge of the Nixon televi-
have to do is show them the facts, things
sion campaign. Whenever there is an at-
like Kent State and Agnew's charges
tack on McGovern to be made, according
about students being bums and his attacks
to present plans, the Democrats for Nix-
on the press and effete intelled tuals."
on will do it. Two even sharper anti-Mc-
On campus, McGovern organizers are
Govern commercials are scheduled for
appealing to blue-collar youth by leaf-
airing over the next few weeks. One spot
leting factory gates and shopping centers.
shows a poster of the South Dakota sen-
The stress is on bread-and-butter issues
ator spinning in dizzy, 180-degree turns
("If you have a lifetime of work ahead of
while a narrator ticks off contradictory
you. savs one handbill, "this year you
McGovern stands on campaign issues.
can do something to make it safe"), and
The second lays out squadrons of toy
the style is supposed to be sedate. "If I
planes, ranks of toy soldiers and a
go up to East Texas with cut-offs, tennis
fleet of toy warships On a tabletop. As
shoes, a T shirt and no bra, it's tough to
the narrator recites Senator McGovern's
relate to those people," says Jeralyn
proposal for cutting back on defense
Mardis, 22, who works for McGovern in
Gallagher: Sometimes a low profile
spending, an arm appears and knocks a
20
Newsweek
15
And from UPI:
"A national poll shows RN has increased his margin over McG
by 11 points for a 62-23 lead, Time said. The mag says "if the
election were held today, McG would join those WH aspirants buried
under the country's historic landslides -- Clay, Parker, Cox, Landon,
and of course, Goldwater. "
lates
And Newsweek has a Gallup poll w/RN leading 52-43 among youth.
It was 50-46 in Aug. College youth are 53-40 McG but non-college,
2 times the college population, favor RN by 49-34
The Star's
Spencer says there is plenty of evidence to show neither party can
count on the youth vote, "but it seems remarkable that significant
numbers of young people are angry and puzzled by the Dem party and
McG. 11 The anger and resentment boils down to the fact that the "little
guy" feels he's stuck in a corner, doing a job he doesn't like and that
he'll never be any different. The main dividing line among youth,
stems from who went to college and who didn't. And it's the blue-
collar youth who feels particularly put upon and is the one who wonders
"who'is on my side?" If VN is mentioned, they often attack McG's
amnesty. If it's welfare, they talk about giving money away to those
who won't work. If it's the economy, they respond that firms are only
hiring blacks. Reporter says the answers are almost always negative
and w/one theme: "The blue-collar workers feel they are the ones who
will have to bear the burden in taxes, lost jobs, further loss of control
over their own lives, 11 and neither candidate has said anything thus far
to make them feel important.
CBS w/6 minutes on active, unprecedented pursuit of youth vote
by both sides. Arguing of RN-McG supporters over. VN and respective
chances of aspirants was focused. YVP's Rietz said young have come
to understand what RN has done and thus the support. Anne Wexler
followed by saying what a candidate means to voter will turn youth to
McG Nov. 7. From the start, said reporter Kilpatrick, McG has
relied on youth, seen a plurality as likely but polls show otherwise,
especially among non-college but, he pointed, more registration has
occurred among pro-McG collegians.
Vote registration group, Frontlash, financed by labor, says many
blue collar youth are unenthusiastic. Clip of college student singing
song to McG followed by "Nixon Now" song over clip of YVP hq. in
DC where the highly organized crew says they want to surprise those
expecting to see RN HQ staffed by little old ladies in tennies.
Has
Geo
Gol
personally
9/22
wrote
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Monday, Sept. 25, 1972
Judging from Experience Since 1930's
Nixon's Wide Lead Over McGovern
Could Vanish Before Election Day
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
Dewey held a substantial lead over his
If the "return-to-the-fold" factor were
PRINCETON N. J.:Sept. 24 Poll-
Democratic rival, Harry Truman. Al-
to operate this year, McGovern would
Nixon could be described as "soft."
me experience gained in presidential
though the Gallup Pull reported con-
stand to pick up considerable strength
1956 campaign, two significant events
It is among Democratic defectors who
elections space the 1030's indicates that
stant gains for Truman during the en-
in the closing weeks of this year's cam-
took place: The Suez crisis and the
admit they might switch from Nixon,
the present wide lead of Nixon
suing weeks, polling was discontinued
paign particularly in view of this
Hungarian revolt. The public Ad
representing about one voter in seven
about three weeks before the election
year's record Democratic defection.
more faith in Eisenhower's ability to
over McCovern 111 the current presi
among all registered voters (or 15 per
handle these crisis situations than in
dential race could varush before elec-
on the incorrect assumption that a can-
cent of the electorate), where the "re-
Stevenson's The result was that some
didate with a sizable lead late in the
'Soft Vote' of Defectors
non day.
turn-to-the-fold" factor would be most
- Possible McGovern Gain?
two and one-half million voters switch
campaign will maintain the lead. The
This IS particularly true when the
likely to operate.
Not only does the past trial heat
ed to Eisenhower
election figures showed Truman over-
man trailing in the polls is the candi-
taking Dewey, having gained nine per-
history, as recorded by Gallup surveys,
Decades of Polling Show
The important point, however, is
date of the majority party the Dem-
centage points since early September.
offer evidence that the gap between
No 'Bandwagon' Movement
that if the standings had been reversed
party. In the final weeks of a
'Return-to-Fold' Factor
the major party candidates can close,
The evidence from many years of
and Stevenson had been aliead before
campaign many voters who have pre-
but internal evidence from a recent
Operates in Many Campaigns
polling, not only in this country but
these events, be might well have been
viously telt they would vote for the
candidate of the opposing party have
The "return-to-the-fold" factor oper-
survey gives further indication that this
abroad, negates the claims of a "band-
defeated.
ates in many presidential campaigns
could happen in the current race.
wagon" movement. More often it is
second thoughts and return to their
in fact, it has occurred in five of the
All Democratic defectors in the sur-
the candidate who is shown to be lag-
Polls Do Not
habitual voting behavior: this is des-
'Predict'
eight presidential campaigns covered by
vey - that is, registered voters who
ging behind who picks up strength
eribed as the "return-to-the-fold" fac-
during the course of an election.
Contrary to the view of many poll
the Gallup Poll since 1940 inclusive.
describe themselves as Democrats but
for And many of the "don't knows"
followers, election surveys are not in-
those who have not made up their
The following table shows the change
currently prefer Nixon were asked
There are two reasons for this, Typi-
tended to "predict" what will happen
minds similarly return to their cus
in the vote for the losing candidate be-
two questions to determine whether
cally, the underdog candidate is not so
on election day. Polls can report senti-
tormay voting pattern.
tween the beginning of the campaign
their choice is "hard" that is, solidly
well identified in the public's mind as
ment only as of the time they are taken
for Nixon or "soft":
Humphrey Far Behind
in early September, as recorded in trial
the candidate who is ahead in the polls,
They are a "snapshot" of opinion 25
In Early September. '68
How strongly do you feel about
nor are his views so well known. The
heats. and the actual election returns
of the time of interviewing. By provid
III November:
your choice would you say you
campaign gives him an opportunity to
ing several readings during the course
After the termoil of the Democratic
are almost certain to vote for bim,
overcome this handicap.
of a campaign, pulls can chart the trend
convention III 1968. Hubert Humphrey
Change in Vote for Trailing
or do you think you may change your
Secondly, in the course of presenting
of sentiment- they can reflect the pub-
started out far behind Richard Nixon
Candidate Between Early
in 40 early September survey, Nixon
mind and vote for the other man?
his case scores of times, the underdog
lic's views as of a given time.
Leld a 4 at; lead over Humphrey.
Sept. & Election
Do you feel the candidate you
eventually discovers the arguments that
This is the chief reason why reputable
Howe Humphrey made dramatic
1968 (Humphrey):-gained 10 points
now favor would be much better than
arouse the greatest interest and enthus-
polls ask those interviewed how they
1964 (Goldwater):-gained 8 points
iasm.
gains during October and early No.
the other man, or do you feel that it
would vote if the election were being
vember, as documented by the Gal-
1960 (Nixon) :-gained I point
probably wouldn't make much differ.
held today. Persons who participate
lup PoP and came within one percent-
1956 (Stevenson):-lost 2 points
Unforeseen Events
ence one way or the other who wins?
in these surveys can answer this with-
1952 (Stevenson):,-gained 3 points
Can Change Picture
are point of winning a plurality of the
out hesitation But ask them Low they
popular vote.
1948 (Truman):-gained 9 points
Analysis of the results of both ques-
Unforeseen events can sometimes
hink they will vote a month from now.
1944 (Dewey):-lost 2 points
tions reveals that roughly half of the
turn victory into defeat. It will be recall-
and they cannot, in many cases, answer
In early September of 1948, Thomas
1940 (Willkie):-no change
vote of Democrats who currently favor
ed that within the last ten days of the
except to say: "It all depends."
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Friday, Sept. 22, 1972
Blacks Solidly in McGovern Camp Despite
Shift Among Other Democratic Groups
By George Gallup
The following table shows the results
Copyright, 1972, Field Enferprises, Inc.
by groups:
All rights reserved. Republication in
McG. Nixon Undec.
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
to both candidates, the current division
%
%
%
with written consent of the copyright
is 79 per cent for McGovern and 21 per
Blacks, nationwide
75
17
8
holders.
cent for Nixon.
The vote of blacks for the Demo-
Under 40 years
76
14
10
cratic candidate in the last five elections
40 and over
74
18
8
averages 77 per cent. The follow-
ing table shows the latest figure, based
Men
72
18
TO
PRINCETON N J.. Sept 21 - Al-
on recent surveys, compared to the vote
Women
76
15
9
though seek traditionally Democratic
of blacks in the previous five president-
voung block as Cat! oldes and manual
ial elections:
Manual workers
74
16
10
purkers currently prefer President
All other occup.
75
17
8
For Release Upon Receipt
Note over Senator George McGovern
Vote of Blacks
in the presidential race. the nation's
For Democrat
$6,000 income
INTEREST LAGGING
blacks remain solidly in the McGovern
Latest surveys
79%
& over
79
14
7
camp. by a ratio of more than 4-to-I.
1968 election
85
Under $6,000
72
16
I2
IN 1972 CAMPAIGN
In addition. while a steady decline
1964
94
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 00 - Voter interest in the forthcoming
in support for McGovern has been re.
1960
68
H.S. and more
80
TO
TO
1956
or
Less than H.S.
November elections is lagging as compared with interest at this
orded up to this point among normally
70
21
9
same time in the 1968 presidential campaign.
Democrate groups. only a shght loss
1952
79
in support for McGovern is found
Note: Vote of blacks in elections is
Northern
78
14
8
In the latest survey (conducted in late August), half of all persons
among the nation's blacks.
based on Gallup survey data.
Southern
71
20
9
interviewed, 50 per cent, said they have given "a lot of thought to
the coming elections" compared to 58 per cent at this time in the
A rually, blacks preferred both Sen.
Hubert Humphrey and Sen. Edward
Differences by Groups
1,000,000 Pop.
1968 race, when Richard Nixon, Senator Hubert Humphrey and
Are Not Pronounced
& over
82
7
II
George Wallace were vying for the presidency.
Kenneds over McGovern during the
The trial heat preferences among
Under 1,000,000
71
21
8
Young adults, under 30, indicate somewhet less interest than
early primary period this spring. But
blacks differ little in terms of back-
M.Govern subsequently picked up sup-
The findings reported today are has-
do their elders, with 44 per cent saying they have given & lot of
port among blacks and won their full
ground characteristics.
ed on a sample of 404 registered blacks
thought to the elections. However, this is a slightly better record
allegrance when be became the party's
For example. little difference in presi-
out of a total sample of 1260 registered
than in 1968 when 38 per cent of young persons expressed a great
standard bearer in July.
dential preferences among blacks is
voters, interviewed in person during
deal of interest.
found on the basis of age. sex, or OC.
the period July 14-August 28.
The question and results follow:
Current Black Vote
cupation.
These questions were asked:
How much thought have you given to the coming Novem-
Same as in Elections
ber elections quite a lot or only a little?
However, some slight differences do
The support blacks currently give
If the presidential election were
1972
1968
emerge. Those most inclined to favor
McGovern nearly matches the average
being held today, which candidate
Quite lot
50%
58%
McGovern are higher income blacks,
vote they have given Democratic can-
would you vote for - McGovern
Some
17
16
those with a high school education or
didares in national elections since 1952.
the Democrat, or Nixon. the Republi-
Little
28
22
more, persons who live outside the
can? If undecided: As of today, do
None
5
4
It the current undecided vote among
South and those who live in the larg-
you lean more to McGovern or to
blacks (8 per cent) is allocated equally
est cities.
Nixon?
F
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 13, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Surveys
You asked whether the Gallup Organization would confirm
or deny the rumor from the Leadership Meeting yesterday
that a recent Gallup poll showed the President with
a 40% lead.
H-
Neither John Davies nor George Gallup, Jr. returned
Sounds lite they have
my calls. However, Tom Benham reached Alec Gallup
late last night. Benham reports:
1) Alec Gallup would neither confirm nor deny the
rumor of a 40% lead, Gallup did not indicate by hesi-
tation or in any other way that he had such data in a
long conversation with Benham;
2) Concerning the Gallup release last Sunday that
"30% of the vote for either candidate can be considered
'soft'", Benham's discussion with Alec Gallup indicates
that Gallup Surveys is just "taking out insurance by
saying the race isn't decided". Alec Gallup told Benham
that in all follow-up questions the support for the
President remained constantly strong. Although he would
not give Benham the exact questions, Gallup did ask
"believability" and "scalometer" questions to test the
President's support. "Every measure that they (Gallup)
use confirms every other one."
3) Alec Gallup suspects that Harris has a recent
trial heat that is "too Republican" and so doesn't want
to report it.
4) When Banham asked Alec Gallup when they would do
their next survey, he said "Well, maybe not for two weeks".
51
GALLUP
PRINCETON, N.J. (AP)-A SURVEY OF 221 YOUNG VOTERS SHOWS 61 PER
CENT FAVORING PRESIDENT NIXON TO 38 PER CENT FOR SEN. GEORGE
MCGOVERN, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GALLUP POLL.
THE POLL TAKEN IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION AND
RELEASED SUNDAY--SHOWED MARKEDLY DIFFERENT RESULTS FROM A SURVEY IN
EARLY AUGUST THAT HAD MCGOVERN LEADING NIXON AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
UNDER 30 YEARS OLD BY 48 PER CENT TO 41 PER CENT.
THE MCGOVERN CAMPAIGN HAS COUNTED HEAVILY ON PICKING UP STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG THE UNDER-30S, PARTICULARLY THE 18- TO 21-YEAR-OLDS
VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME.
MCGOVERN PROMPTLY TOLD A CROWD IN ESPANOLA, N.M., "I DON'T BELIEVE
THE POLL."
THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION NOTED THAT THE SAMPLE OF 221 PERSONS WAS
ABOUT ONE-SIXTH THE SIZE OF THE CUSTOMARY NATIONAL SAMPLE.
THE 221 WERE PART OF A GROUP OF 1,203 REGISTERED VOTERS OF ALL
AGES WHO WERE ASKED: "IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE BEING HELD
TODAY, WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR--NIXON THE REPUBLICAN OR
MCGOVERN THE DEMOCRAT?"
THE SURVEY FOUND SOME RESPONDENTS STILL UNDECIDED BUT REGISTERED
OTHER NEW GAINS FOR THE INCUMBENT.
MANUAL WORKERS FAVORED NIXON OVER MCGOVERN 64 PER CENT TO 28 PER
CENT. IN THE PREVIOUS GALLUP POLL, NIXON LED 49 TO 35.
NIXON LEADS 62 TO 29 PER CENT AMONG CATHOLICS, ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST POLL. PREVIOUSLY HE LED 48 TO 42.
LABOR UNION MEMBERS CHOSE NIXON 61 TO 30, COMPARED WITH A 48 TO 42
PER CENT EDGE IN THE PREVIOUS POLL.
PD1139AED 11
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: 8/26/72
TO:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
John Davies at Gallup had the
attached comparison of the de-
tailed demographics of the
Nixon-McGovern trial heats
prepared.
The April 21-24 was the first
Nixon-McGovern trial heat ac-
cording to John Davies,
The demographics for the July
14-17 poll are not available
yet.
let's get the
+ aug poll
Trial Heats
June 16-19, 1972
May 26-29, 1972
April
28-May
1,
1972
April
21-24,
1972
Nix.
McG.
Und.
Nix.
McG.
Und.
Nix.
McG.
Und.
Nix.
McG.
Und.
of
OP
op
%
do
%
%
%
do
%
do
do
National
54
37
9
53
34
11
49
39
12
53
34
13
Men
55
36
9
52
35
10
50
37
13
52
36
12
Women
52
37
11
53
33
14
48
41
11
53
34
13
White
56
34
10
56
31
13
52
36
12
56
33
11
Non-white
27
62
11
29
56
15
25
63
12
29
51
20
College
55
39
6
57
36
7
52
40
8
53
38
9
High School
54
36
10
54
32
14
49
39
12
53
36
11
Grade School
52
36
12
45
36
9
46
35
19
54
31
15
Prof. & Bus.
56
38
6
59
33
8
55
35
10
55
35
10
White Collar
57
39
4
54
32
14
48
17
5
47
43
10
Farmers
75
20
5
71
27
2
45
45
10
66
28
6
Manual
49
38
13
45
38
17
41
45
14
51
35
14
18-20 years
44
55
1
58
39
3
34
57
9
59
32
9
21-29 years
37
53
10
41
48
10
43
47
10
42
49
9
30-49 years
56
34
10
56
30
14
52
36
12
51
36
13
50& over
57
32
11
53
31
16
51
35
14
58
30
12
Protestant
61
30
9
60
28
12
58
30
12
59
30
11
Catholic
46
32
12
46
41
13
38
50
12
47
41
12
Jewish
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Republican
87
7
6
85
7
8
84
9
7
91
8
1
Democrat
33
54
13
34
52
14
26
59
15
32
53
15
Independent
53
37
10
42
44
14
51
35
14
50
36
14
East
52
36
12
53
37
10
50
40
10
49
38
13
Midwest
46
44
10
50
34
16
45
43
12
50
40
10
South
64
27
9
56
30
14
50
35
15
63
24
10
West
52
40
8
54
33
13
53
36
11
49
39
12
$15,000 & over
64
31
5
58
33
9
55
36
9
57
38
5
$10,000-$14,999
54
38
8
56
30
14
54
39
7
60
30
10
$7,000-$9,999
52
36
12
44
39
17
36
50
14
50
43
7
$5,000-$6,999
44
39
17
56
30
14
51
35
14
42
41
7
$3,000-$4,999
51
38
11
50
38
12
38
40
22
57
50
3
Under $3,000
49
38
13
47
38
15
62
30
8
59
25
6
1,000,000 & over
40
52
8
47
41
12
43
44
13
45
40
15
500,000-999,999
59
32
9
52
35
13
39
48
13
45
44
11
50,000-499,999
53
37
10
50
38
12
47
40
13
50
38
12
2,500-49,999
55
35
10
56
29
15
57
33
12
60
32
8
Under 2,500, Rural
62
27
11
59
27
14
555
33
12
60
29
11
P
Gollep
Davies
comp Sched - 2wfcs ?
caltrolics -
Demogs for last 3 Tre Heats.
Next Tre Heat
-any popularity figures ?
G
Davies 8/30 + 9/1 - unduail
back Tues 9/4
-Demog's -last polls
Home #
G
> cwc on Cathis for l Gallup
Demeral Prl ag pollt
ag 26-27 pale
26
CBS w/clip of McG statement, again followed by applause. Mills on CBS
film said he had never talked w/McG about it. Asked if he would consider,
Mills said, "I don't know whether he would offer it. If he did, I'd have to
pass judgment on it at that time. There's a lot of water to go under the
bridge before that happens. " CBS said the Chrm. was cool to the idea but
would weigh it if McG is elected, which Mills said he hopes will happen
NBC noted the conservative said idea was "all news to him, 11 but he'd
consider.
Sevareid said US tax system is based on idea that collecting capital
is the goal. Oil wells and tractors become depleted and depreciated but
no such provision for people. Eric said a proposal of his to reverse human
nature never got out of Ways and Means. McG plan's biggest danger now
isn't credibility gap, but "attention gap. 11 His program risks oblivion as
it's one of a challenger to an incumbent in the WH and that's where the effort
to push the.other fellow's proposals to oblivion is a highly developed game
played in back rooms of WH. Sevareid recalled how under Ike announcements
of new programs were held up til his vacations and then released about every
9 holes to make it appear that Ike was working all the time.
Sevareid noted that Monday McG had said his books were open to GAO
but RN announced draft's end and Post Office said no postage hike. Tuesday
McG's tax proposal bumped heads w/RN's withdrawal statement and denial
of auto price rise. The headlines and broadcasts will tell what happened at
"attention gap, " said Sevareid and it may be hard to say if proposals were
pushed over the side or fell on their own. [Clearly neither happened on CBS
where 8:00 McG lead was followed by :25 RZ w/drawals and 1:05 RN
conference. Also 1:50 on car prices. But add 2:20 Sevareid to McG's
8:00 lead and one wonders who has the attention problem on CBS.
"Lagging in the polls, " says UPI, "McG made a bold attempt to remove
'radicalism' taint, modifying his controversial welfare plan and naming
a fiscal conservative as 1st choice for Treas. Secy. 11 And a UPI analysis
says the new proposal bears more similarities than differences to RN's FAP.
MORE ON McG AND DEMS
At opening of LA Jewish Dems for RN, Jimmy Roosevelt said McG lacks
the stature to hold the presidency.
Chi Sun Times notes that Gallup officials
say McG is losing more Dem votes than any other candidate has ever lost
from his own party, and if McG gets back half of defectors, he'll cut RN's
margin from 26 to 14%. It's noted RN is getting 58% of manual labor vote
and 53% of Cath vote; further, McG is winning only 15% of whites over 30.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Sept. 17, 1972
Views of Nixon, McGovern Supporters Similar
Few Want Wage-Price Controls Removed,
But Criticism of Application is Widespread
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
PRINCETON, N.J., Sept. 16 - AI-
though widespread dissatisfaction with
the application of wage-price controls
continues to exist, only a very small
proportion of the electorate favor re-
moving them entirely.
Views on wage-price controls are of
great political significance in the pre-
cent say this). Twenty-nine per cent
made more strict, as opposed to 19 per
sent election campaign. Every Gallup
think they are all right as they are now.
cent who say less strict. Twenty-four
veys taken since President Nixon an-
Do you think wage-price controls
indicator shows the economy to be the
Nine per cent of persons in the sur-
per cent say they should be kept as they
nounced his new economic program on
should he made more strict, less
number one domestic worry of the U.S.
are now.
August 15 of last year.
vey favor taking off controls entire.
strict. or kept about as they are now?
electorate. with "checking the high cost
ly, or roughly one-half of those who
Approximately half, 49 per cent, of
These findings have shown the Amer-
Wage-Price Controls
of living" named most frequently by
say controls should be made less strict.
Nixon supporters think controls should
ican people - both union and non-uni-
Should Be
voters as the domestic issue of most
on ...... to be in favor of some form of
While three persons in ten (29 per
be more strict, compared to 12 per cent
More strict
importance in determining how they
cent) express satisfaction with the way
who say less strict and 31 per cent who
controls, and sizable proportions will-
45%
Less strict
would vote if the election were being
feel that they should be kept as they
ing to accept more rather than less
15
held at this time.
wage-price controls are presently being
strict controls.
Kept as now
29
applied, twice as many (60 per (ent)
are at present.
No opinion
11
The Democratic Party Platform calls
indicate dissatisfaction - that is, say
Little difference in opinions is found
President Nixon's August IS an-
for the elimination of "the unfair
nouncement last year came at a time
100
either that controls are not strict enough
on the basis of region of the country,
bureaucratic Nixon wage and price con-
or that they are too strict.
income level or occupation group.
when public support for wage-price
trols while the Republican Party Plat-
controls had reached its highest record-
The latest results show a slight de.
form calls for the removal of all con-
McGovern. Nixon Backers
Of particular interest is the fact that
ed point since the Korean war.
cline from the previous survey in March
trols "once the economic distortions
labor union families hold views closely
in the proportion of people who say
Hold Comparable Opinions
controls should be made "more strict.' ",
are removed."
comparable to those of non-union fam-
Details of
The views of McGovern and Nixon
ilies. although labor leaders have been
Survey
Following is the trend:
Only 9 Per Cent Want
supporters are closely comparable, al-
though those who favor McGovern are
sharply critical of President Nixon's
A total of 1534 adults, 18 and older,
More Less About No
Controls Removed
slightly more inclined to say controls
economic policies.
were interviewed in person in this sur-
Strict Strict Same Opin.
The current survey shows public opin-
vey. which was conducted in more than
it
Co
should be less strict than are persons
ion leaning heavily to the side that
Consistent with
300 scientifically selected localities
LATEST 45
15
29
11
who back Nixon.
wage-price controls should be made
Earlier Findings
across the nation during the period
March 53
13
25
9
"more strict" (45 per cent hold this
Forty-three per cent of McGovern
Today's survey results are consistent
August 24-27. Following is the ques-
January 48
II
29
12
view) rather than "less strict" (15 per
supporters would like to see controls
with earlier findings recorded in sur-
tion asked and the results:
November 38
15
37
TO
Galley
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 12, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Survey - September 14
Attached-
Gallup's Survey, headlined "Five Million McGovern Backers
Willing to Work in His Campaign", deserves some analysis.
Based on the figures given in the release, about 30,000,000
voters support McGovern. The 15% who say they plan to work
for McGovern total 4,500,000, which Gallup rounds off to
"5 Million". The President has approximately 64,000,000
supporters. The 8% who plan to work for him totals
5,120,000. There is no mention of the 5 Million people
who would work for the President in the Gallup release.
Discussion with Tom Benham about the release indicates
that he believes Gallup wants to appear non-partisan,
and so has reached for something positive to say about
McGovern.
However, it would seem appropriate, without destroying
any sources of information from Gallup, to have MacGregor
call George Gallup, Sr. and complain about the obvious
bias in this story. The attached memorandum for your
signature to MacGregor will give him the back-up information
(TAGA)
OK
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Sept. 14, 1972
Five Million McGovern Backers
Willing to Work in His Campaign
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 13 - If
the McGovern forces can recruit only
a small percentage of the people who
today profess interest in working in the
Democratic presidential campaign, a
huge army of volunteers could be as-
sembled.
According to the most recent Gallup
survey, 15 per cent of registered voters
who currently prefer McGovern over
Nixon say they plan to work in the
Democratic campaign. Translated into
millions of people, this represents nearly
five million potential volunteers.
The percentage planning to work
in the Democratic campaign is twice
the proportion interested in volunteer-
ing for the Republicans. Eight per
cent of voters who today prefer Nixon
over McGovern say they would be
willing to take an active role in the
campaign.
The survey finds that nearly half of
the voters who today support Sen. Mc-
Persons interested in working for
Govern (about IS million voters)
either the Democrats or Republicans
say they would donate $5 to the Dem-
have similar socio-economic char-
ocratic coffers. A sizable, but smaller,
acteristics - most are college-trained.
proportion of those persons supporting
upper income, work in business or the
President Nixon's bid for re-election,
professions and live in the suburbs. Of
say they would be willing to donate $5
those under 30 interested in working.
to the GOP campaign fund.
McGovern and the Democrats hold a
significant edge over Nixon and the
For this survey, a total of 1534 adults
GOP.
18 years of age and older were inter-
viewed in more than 300 scientifically
Since a difference exists between a
selected locations across the nation Aug.
person's interest in working in a cam-
24-27. These questions were asked:
paign and the likelihood that he will
actually do so, the survey question asked
Do you, yourself, plan to do any
whether he planned to work in order to
work for a party or a candidate in
elicit a firmer expression of intention.
this election campaign? For which
party? If you were asked, would you
Vast Revenue Potential
contribute $5 to the campaign fund
At Grass Roots Level
of the political party you prefer?
While presidential campaigns are
The tables follow:
traditionally financed by proceeds from
Plan to Work
fund raising dinners and major con-
In Campaign?
tributors, the current survey reveals that
Yes
No
a staggering revenue potential current-
%
%
ly exists at the grass roots level both
McGovern backers
for the Republicans and the Democrats.
15
85
Nixon backers
8
92
This finding could be particularly
significant to the McGovern campaign
Donate $5 to Campaign
organization, which has a large debt
Yes
No
and has publicly appealed for one
%
%
million Americans to donate a small
McGovern backers
47
53
sum of money to the campaign chest.
Nixon backers
44
56
A
Tab
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 12, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR $
CLARK MaeGREGOR
FROM :
H.R. HALDEMAN
Below are some interesting calculations based on Thursday's Gallup
release. (Attached)
1) Based on the August 24-27 Gallup poll (64-30-6), 64, 000, 000
people support the President. 8% of 64 million "Nixon Backers"
is 5, 120, 000. The President has more than "Five Million Backers
Willing to Work in His Campaign".
2) McGovern has 30 million backers. 15% is 4,500,000, who
say they plan to work for McGovern.
Not only has Gallup failed to mention that the President has more
than 5 million workers, but he exaggerates MeGovern's 4.5 million.
Even assuming Gallup must release some positive McGovern information
to retain his non-partisan credibility, this release actually distorts the
facts.
Without creating any large flap It might be worth a call from you to
George Gallup to set the record straight on this.
HRH:GS:jb:LHrpm
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Thurs., Sept. 14, 1972
Five Million McGovern Backers
Willing to Work in His Campaign
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 13 - If
the McGovern forces can recruit only
a small percentage of the people who
today profess interest in working in the
Democratic presidential campaign. a
huge army of volunteers could be as-
sembled.
According to the most recent Gallup
survey, 15 per cent of registered voters
who currently prefer McGovern over
Nixon say they plan to work in the
Democratic campaign. Translated into
millions of people. this represents nearly
five million potential volunteers.
The percentage planning to work
in the Democratic campaign is twice
the proportion interested in volunteer-
ing for the Republicans. Eight per
cent of voters who today prefer Nixon
over McGovern say they would be
willing to take an active role in the
campaign.
The survey finds that nearly half of
the voters who today support Sen. Mc-
Persons interested in working for
Govern (about 15 million voters)
either the Democrats or Republicans
say they would donate $5 to the Dem-
have similar socio-economic char-
ocratic coffers. A sizable, but smaller,
acteristics - most are college-trained,
proportion of those persons supporting
upper income, work in business or the
President Nixon's bid for re-election,
professions and live in the suburbs. Of
say they would be willing to donate $5
those under 30 interested in working,
to the GOP campaign fund.
McGovern and the Democrats hold a
significant edge over Nixon and the
For this survey, a total of 1534 adults
GOP.
18 years of age and older were inter-
viewed in more than 300 scientifically
Since a difference exists between a
selected locations across the nation Aug.
person's interest in working in a cam-
24-27. These questions were asked:
paign and the likelihood that he will
actually do so, the survey question asked
Do you. yourself. plan to do any
whether be planned to work in order to
work for a party or a candidate in
elicit a firmer expression of intention.
this election campaign? For which
party? If you were asked. would you
Vast Revenue Potential
contribute $5 to the campaign fund
At Grass Roots Level
of the political party you prefer?
While presidential campaigns are
The tables follow:
traditionally financed by proceeds from
Plan to Work
fund raising dinners and major con-
In Campaign?
tributors, the current survey reveals that
Yes
No
a staggering revenue potential current-
%
%
ly exists at the grass roots level - both
McGovern backers
for the Republicans and the Democrats.
15
85
Nixon backers
8
92
This finding could be particularly
significant to the McGovern campaign
Donate $5 to Campaign
organization, which has a large debt
Yes
No
and has publicly appealed for one
%
%
million Americans to donate a small
McGovern backers
47
53
sum of money to the campaign chest.
Nixon backers
44
56
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Sunday, September 10, 1972
Up to Now a Key McGovern Group
SHIFT TO NIXON SEEN AMONG YOUNG
VOTERS SINCE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except with written consent of the copyright
holder.
PRINCETON, N. J., September 7 -- The latest nationwide survey, conducted immediately
following the GOP convention, shows a shift to President Nixon among young voters,
under 30, who with non-whites have represented the core of Senator George McGovern's
support.
In the previous survey, Nixon trailed McGovern 48 to 41 per cent among voters
under 30. Now, Nixon not only has gained the lead but holds a wide 61-36 per cent
margin over McGovern with this group.
The shift in preferences among young voters may be due, in part, to the
President's determined efforts to attract youth, as evidenced by his acceptance
speech at the GOP convention.
Youth Key Factor
In Change Nationally
Nixon's sizable gain among young voters has been one of the key factors in
the President's gain nationwide. The latest national figures show Nixon leading
McGovern, 64 to 30 per cent with six per cent undecided. The previous survey
showed Nixon with a narrower margin, 57 to 31 per cent with 12 per cent undecided.
Until the latest survey, McGovern's losses since his high point in April,
recorded in a survey taken immediately after his impressive victory in the
Wisconsin primary, had been due largely to a decline in support among older
voters, 30 and over, with a relatively small loss among those under 30. Young
voters remained consistently in McGovern's ranks throughout this period with
the exception of several occasions when their support was about evenly divided
between Nixon and McGovern.
Nixon Leads With All
Groups But Blacks
Analysis of the latest survey findings shows Nixon holding a wide lead with
all major population groups with the exception of non-whites where McGovern is
currently preferred by a more than 5-to-1 ratio.
Solidly in the Nixon camp as of the present time are traditionally
Democratic groups, such as manual workers, labor union members and Catholics,
with sharp increases in support for Nixon being recorded among these groups since
the previous survey.
The table below shows the latest presidential trial heat results by groups
with the change:
Latest Nixon-McGovern
Trial Heats
(By key population groups)
Registered Voters
Under 30 years old
Aug. 5-12 Aug. 25-28
Earlier
Latest
%
%
Nixon
41
61
McGovern
48
36
Undecided
11
3
Manual workers
Nixon
49
64
McGovern
35
28
Undecided
16
8
Catholics
Nixon
48
62
McGovern
42
29
Undecided
10
9
Labor union members
Nixon
52
61
McGovern
35
30
Undecided
13
9
The latest trial heat is based on in-person interviews with a total of 1203
registered voters out of a total sample of 1534 adults interviewed August 25-28
in more than 300 localities across the nation. This question was asked: If the
presidential election were being held TODAY, which candidate would you vote for --
Wixon, the Republican or McGovern, the Democrat? (If respondent is undecided, he
is then asked: As of TODAY, do you lean more to llixon or to McGovern?)
ES
Race Seen Far
From Decided
A review of survey findings shoesthat the race is still far from decided:
1. Sharp movement has occurral in presidential preferences since the primaries
this year. For example, in surveys bracketing the Visconsin primary in April,
McGovern gained five percentage points in just one week's time.
Similarly, in the period of six weeks since the Democratic convention, Nixon
has increased hi vote by eight points.
Sharp movement in the trial heats also occurred in the 1963 presidential cam-
paign when Sen. Lubert Humphrey, who trailed Nixonby a wide margin at the end of
September, erased this deficit in the final weeks of that campaign.
2. A residual base of support still remains for McGovern as revealed by the
fact that, only five months ago, McGovern received only 10 percentage points less
than Nixon, 49 to 39 per cent, in trial heat measurements.
3. Recent survey evidence shows that 30 per cent of the vote for either
candidate can be considered "soft" -- that is, not solidly committed to the
candidate currently preferred. Approximately three voters in ten currently
favoring Nixon, for example, admit they might change their mind and vote for the
other candidate.
Following is the trend in trial heats nationwide since April:
Nixon-McGovern
Trial Heat Trend
Nixon
McGovern
Undecided
Behbar on
010
olo
oto
April 21 - 24
53
34
13
April 28 - May 1
49
39
12
May 26 29
53
34
13
June 16 19
54
37
9
Democratic Convention
July 14 - 17
56
37
7
Eagleton Disclosures
August 3
57
32
11
August 5 - 12
57
31
12
GOP Convention
August 25 - 28
64
30
6
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: August 30, 1972
TO:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
John Davies at Gallup gave me
the attached information which
corresponds with Benham's records
and our 1972 files.
Davies doubts there are pre-July
trial heats but has asked Gallup
research to check. Benham says
pre-July Gallup trial heat polls
were not released to the public,
though they m have been conducted.
Golup
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
September 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
S
SUBJECT:
Gallup Release
John Davies has not returned my telephone calls for
10 days. Several pending questions regarding demo-
graphics, Catholics, campaign release schedules, etc.,
remain unanswered.
Tom Benham, however, has increased his informal contacts
with Gallup. In a discussion with Alec Gallup today,
Benham learned that the Gallup Organization will release
figures in the near future which will show the President's
dramatic increase in support among young voters. The
Gallup poll of August 26-27 which showed the President
over McGovern 64-30-6 will be used. The 18-29 year olds
support the President over McGovern 58-36-6. This is
within one point of the ORC August 29-31 poll which
showed 18-29 year olds at 57-36-7.
IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS
There will be no Gallup Poll report for this
Thursday or Friday. In its place you will receive an extra
report for publication next week.
The next Gallup Poll report will be sent you for
release this Sunday, September 10.
--
THE GALLUP POLL
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Aug. 20, 1972
Nixon, 57% or McGovern, 31%
McGovern Loses Ground Against Nixon
By George Gallup
2. The increase in Nixon's lead is
Copyright, 1972,
a result of a decline in preference for
Field Enterprises, Inc.
McGovern without an equivalent in-
Men
34
29
30
crease in Nixon's strength.
Women
39
35
32
The most recent findings show Nixon
The table below shows the trial heat
Under 30
49
43
48
leading McGovern in most major
results from the three surveys:
30-49 years
35
25
28
groups, including two that have tradi-
Mc-
26
White
50 and older
(1)
2/1
Other/
32
33
tionally voted Democratic in national
Non-white
13
-1
PRINCETON. N. J.. Aug. 19 - Rich-
Nixon
Govern
D.K.
College
elections manual workers and Catho-
Nebon holds a commanding 57
%
%
%
35
30
32
High school
35
33
29
lics even though the President's lead
$15,000 & over 62
10
8
per cent lead over George
Before Eagleton
Grade school
Disclosures
42
33
34
among Catholics has declined over the
$10.000-$1.4.900 (1
26
TO
IS the latest Gallup survey,
56
37
7
past six weeks.
$5,000-50,000
52
50
beginning the weekend that
After Fagleton
Protestant
33
24
McGovern scores higher than Nixon
Under $5,000
to
;
named by Mc
Disclosure, but
23
Catholic
to replace Thomas
Before
37
39
42
in the most recent trial heat among
Comparison of the current ''I
Democrats vice presi-
Resignation
57
32
T1
blacks, and among persons under 30
figures with Gallup finds
East
After Cagleton
37
32
33
candidate.
years of age.
Midwest
five previous presidential
Resignation, and
35
36
33
A your Name survey conduct-
South
The table below shows the most re-
show that considering Nixons
36
25
29
Subsequent
West
38
28
cent trial heat results among key popu-
manding lead. nationwide. his surpo
Gallur Organization after
Selection of
41
lation groups.
is relatively low amone such the briend
disclosure concerning his
Shriver
57
31
12
Prof. and Bus.
Iv Republican groups as profession.
but before his resigna-
-6
35
29
28
Latest Trial Heat' Results
Net change
+1
+5
Manual
and business paiple. the colle del
ilar results. with Nixon
39
33
35
Mc-
No
The table shows that the defect
ated. and persons in upper 11%
per cent to 2 per cent.
Nixon
Govern
Opin.
house holds Conversely. M Gove
ing McGovern supporters have not
Republicans
2
4
3
a line in Mc.
%
%
%
switched to Nixon but rather have
trial heat performance among the
Democrats
6r
52
55
NATIONAL
from a survey con-
57
31
12
ter educated. more affect "
moved into the "don't know" category.
Independents
30
25
25
eximediately after the Demo-
McGovern has registered a loss of six
Men
57
30
13
the population is relatively 1.1.
orivention At that time, Nixon
percentage points and the undecided
In contrast to his decline among
Women
57
32
IT
Nexon owes his wide lea 111 1
10 37 per cent lead
vote has increased by five percentage
most key groups, McGovern has gained
rival.
support among Catholics in the after-
Under 30
trial heats nationwide. to
41
48
II
points, while Nixon has recorded no
math of the Eagleton affair. Although
01
28
fectio ns among two tradational's Date
30-49 years
II
gain over the three surveys. This basic
McGovern trailed Nixon among Catho-
so and older
60
26
14
cratic stronghouds manual worker
pattern. which shows little or no move-
and to a lesser extent Catholic ,
Notice to Newspapers:
ment in the Nixon standing, is evident
lics by 19 per centage points immediately
College
59
32
9
As a bonus to subscribing news-
among all major population groups.
following the Democratic convention.
High school
58
29
13
papers, the results of a special
the gap has been narrowed to 6 per-
Grade school
50
34
16
Details of Survey
Gallup conducted survey for "News-
The table below shows the trend in
centage points in the most recent sur-
The lates: toal heat 15 based
McGovern's vote for the three surveys
Protestant
week" appear in this release one
vey.
63
23
I.J
on in-person interviews with a total
among various groups in the popula-
Catholic
48
42
10
day prior to publication in "News-
This partial return to traditional
of 1039 registered voters out
tion. McGovern suffered losses in virt-
week" magazine.
Democratic voting behavior among
Fast
5T
33
16
total sample of 1405 adults inter
mally every population group during
Catholics may be a reaction to the dis-
Midwest
56
33
II
viewed August 512 in more than
the Eagleton controversy with the
( the trend ID voter prefer-
cussions concerning Eagleton's replace-
South
59
29
12
300 localities across the nation
decline occuring after Eagleton's dis-
ment after the disclosures about his
West
"
28
6
This question WAS asked:
this critical period reveals
closure. but prior to his resignation.
effects of the Lagleton
mental health. At that time, great em-
Prof. and Bus.
The McGovern Vote
64
28
8
If the Pile idential dellar
dent:
phasis was placed on the desirability
Manual
Post
News-
Aug.
of selecting a Catholic running mate,
49
16
being toda, 111 Club
35
would 100 % for
11e decline in McGovern's
Conv.
Week
4-6
such as Edward Kennedy, Edmund
Republicans
92
3
5
the Domocrer of Nixon. tie Re
came after Eagleton's an-
%
%
%
Muskie, Kevin White, or Sargent
Democrats
33
55
12
publican?
crient but before his resignation.
NATIONAL
37
32
31
Shriver.
Independents
58
25
17
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Aug. 13, 1972
Registration Among Blacks Up Sharply
Democrats Have Succeeded in Closing
Registration Gap on Republicans
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972,
as possible among registered voters,
Field Enterprises, Inc.
since Democratic turnout in presidential
elections has been traditionally lower
than that of Republicans.
One factor in the increased registra-
tion among young people may be the
Religion
PRINCETON N J., Aug. 12 - As
Drive Among Blacks
Supreme Court ruling in March which
The following table shows the regi-
Protestants
70
75
use McGovern forces begin their major
Paying Dividends
overturned a Tennessee residence re-
stration levels in groups which
Catholics
"3
77
received drive Democrats can take
An important factor in the success
quirement This ruling states that it is
normally vote Democratic, as well as
or nursidement i: (1) rie fact that for
of the Democrats in their registration
unconstitutional to deny anyone the
Occuration
those which tend to lean toward the
efforts since the beginning of the year
vote simply because he has not resided
Prof. & Business
So
e first time since the mid thirties
GOP in presidential elections. The
is the sharp increase in registration
in a place for a minimum length of
Clerical & Sales
-2
" on Gallup registration measurements
77
,
early 1972 results (based on three sur-
were first undertaken. as high a per
time. This, combined with a number
Skilled workers
on
among non whites. particularly those
68
-t-2
veys, Jan.-March, combined) are com-
centage of Democrats as Republicans
living in the South, For the first time
of state court rulings. could serve to
Unskilled
pared with the latest results (based on
IN polling bistory, as bigh a propor-
enfranchise an additional estimated five
workers
62
70
+8
are registered to vote.
three surveys. June-August, combined):
How of non-whites as whites say they
to eight million young adults. One of
Race
in the latest Gallup Poll registration
are registered. While the national
the reasons why so few young citizens
audit. based on in-person interviews
Per Cent Registered
Whites
71
75
figure for all adults has increased
have registered and voted in the past
Point
Non-whites
05
adults in and older. during
74
only four points since the study earlier
has been theif frequent change of resi-
:- months of June. July and August,
Early 1972 Latest Change
this year from 71 per cent to 75 per
dence.
Northern whites 73
70
3
" per cent of both Democrats and
%
%
cent the figure for non-whites na-
Southern whites 07
72
NATIONAL
5
Fer childrens say they are registered to
71
75
t4
tionwide has increased 8 percentage
Registration
we Ift the forthcoming presidential
This question was asked: 1,
points from 66 per cent to 74 per
Deadlines
Sex
election.
name NOW recorded in the toter tegt.
cent. The most dramatic increase in
Twenty-seven states have final regi-
Men-
72
76
+4
stration innt 111 the election previnct
A immarable study, conducted dur-
registration is recorded among non-
stration deadlines on or before October
Women
70
74
+4
or dution district If cre YOU 1. 1. Head
192 the first three months of the cur-
whites in the South.
9, including such key, populous states
Educational Background
Tent year. found Republicans leading
as New York. Texas. California, Illin.
For the early 1002 results a total of
College
76
80
+1
" N.e. registration battle. 80 per cent
Registration Also Up
ois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
1.56- persons. 18 years of age and old
High school
69
73
+4
:- per cent At approximately this
Among Young Adults
Massachusetts and Michigan. A sub-
er. were interviewed during the period
Grade school
70
75
+s
me Last presidential year, 1968.
Registration has increased more
stantial part of any registration effort
January-March For the latest 'ts
Republicans led 84 per cent
sharply among young adults. under 30
must therefore be completed within the
Age
a total of 4,149 persons, is and older.
6) -6 per cent.
years of age, than among adults 30
next two months.
18-29 years
47
54
+7
were interviewed during the period
and older. This trend is also encourag
30-49 years
75
80
+s
June-Augast Gallup registration dara
Significance
The strategy of the McGovern forces
ing from McGovern's standpoint since
50 and over
84
85
+
based on the survey question above,
For Democrats
likely will be to make an all-out effort
the youth vote is considered to be the
Political Affiliation
have been found 111 previous years to
T significance of the current fig-
in the next few weeks in those pre-
Republicans
be much the same as Census Bureau
core vote by the McGovern forces and
the major focus of their get-out-the-
cincts which have voted heavily Demo-
80
80
uses for the Demo rats lies in the fact
Democrats
cratic in previous national elections.
72
So
+8
figures based on survey data obrained
at Re, ablicans in the past have count-
vote drive.
Independents
63
66
+3
in their Current Posulation Survey.
d on hisher registration among their
Particular attention will likely be given
For example, Gallus survey data on the
ranks to help offset the GOP's minority
In the early 1972 survey data, a total
those precincts with a high proportion
Region
per cent registered strong these of
of 47 per cent of young adults indicated
of non-whites, Jews and lower-income
East
75
78
+3
status.
voting age in November. 1968. was
they were registered to vote. In the
whites, groups among whom McGovern
Midwest
74
76
+2
within one percentage point of the
The task of Democratic strategists
latest survey, the percentage has risen
scores best against Nixon in the most
South
66
72
+6
Census estimate based on their regular
now will be to get as high a turnout
to 54 per cent.
recent trial heats.
West
67
72
+s
sample surveys.
The Gallup Poll
For Release: Sunday, Sept. 3, 197
Many Favor Coalition Government
Only Minority of Public Would Insist on
Government Run by South Vietnamese
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
All rights reserved. Republication in
whole or part strictly prohibited, except
with written consent of the copyright
holders.
porters holding closely comparable
PRINCETON, N. J., Sept. 2 - Only
views.
a minority of the American public
would insist on a government run solely
Even among the under 30 group, who
by representatives of the South Viet.
have been particularly vocal on the
namese people.
Vietnam issue, views closely parallel
those for the nation as a whole.
Six out of ten Americans say they
would like to see either a coalition gov-
Military Aid
emment take over in South Vietnam
Support for continued military aid to
after U.S. troops are withdrawn, or
South Vietnam is also held by similar
feel that it would not make much dif-
proportions in every population group.
ference what the composition of the
including persons under 30 years of
Here is the first question asked in
government is in that country.
age and among McGovern supporters.
the survey:
At the same time. however, a ma-
Even among persons who favor a
After U.S. forces leave Vietnam,
pority of the public feel that military
coalition government, the weight of
what kind of government would you
and should be continued to the South
opinion is 5-to-4 in favor of sending
like to see take over there - 1) one
Here is the next question asked:
Vietnamese even after the withdrawal
military and after U.S. troops are with-
run by the South Vietnamese, 2) one
After the withdrawal of U.S.
of US troops.
drawn. Among those who want a
run by the Vietcong and North Viet.
troops. do you think the U.S. should
government run solely by the South
namese, 31 a coalition government
continue in send military aid to South
Gallup surveys have consistently
Vietnamese, opinion is 2-to-I in favor
consisting of representatives of both
Vietnam. or do you think the U.S.
shown the Vietnam war to be the num-
of continuing to send military supplies.
sides - or doesn't it make much dif-
should cut off all military aid?
ber one concern of the American peo-
The table below shows the relation-
ference to you?
Should continue aid
ple with a large majority in favor of
51%
ship between views on the two ques-
Here are the national results:
Should cut off
bringing all our troops home by the end
39
tions:
of the year.
Coalition government
40%
No opinion
10
Should Should
Run by South Vietnamese 29
Type of Government
Continue Cut off No
Doesn't make much
100%
Sought by Voters
Aid
Aid
Opin.
difference
21
The survey is based on in-person
Little difference 15 found among the
%
%
%
Run by Vietcong/
interviews with 1465 adults, 18 and
various population groups on the ques-
Favor govt. run
North Vietnamese
I
older, interviewed in more than 300
tion dealing with the composition of the
by S. Vietnamese 64
31
5
No opinion
9
scientifically selected localities across
government in South Vietnam, with
Favor coalition
52
41
7
the nation during the period August
McGovern supporters and Nixon sup-
Makes no difference 40
50
10
100%
4-5.
( Wire story sent Monday, August 28 -- for your file)
THE GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, Aug. 30, 1972
Note to Editors: This timely report is being sent you by wire in order
to significantly decrease the time between completion
of interviewing and publishing of the results.
This takes the place of the release regularly
scheduled for Thursday.
NIXON WIDENS LEAD OVER
McGOVERN IN LATEST TEST
By George Gallup
Copyright, 1972, Field Enterprises, Inc.
PRINCETON, N. J., Aug. 29 - President Richard Nixon has increased an already-
wide lead over his Democratic opponent Sen. George McGovern in the latest
Gallup "trial heat," conducted over this last weekend. The results of this
latest survey are Nixon 64%, McGovern 30%, Undecided 6%. In the previous
survey, conducted August 5-12, the figures were Nixon 57%, McGovern 31%,
Undecided 12%.
The Nixon lead over McGovern is virtually the same as the lead President
Lyndon Johnson held over his GOP opponent, Barry Goldwater, at a comparable
point in the 1964 campaign (65-29%, 6% Undecided). The latest survey was
conducted Aug. 26 and 27, two days after the close of the Republican National
Convention. Results are based on in-person interviews with 1148 registered
voters out of a total sample of 1467 adults.
Following is the question asked: "If the presidential election were
being held today, which candidate would you vote for -- McGovern, the Democrat
or Nixon, the Republican?"
IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS
DAC
GPS
PRECEDENCE
CLASSIFICATION
TO: LARRY HIGBY
FOR COMMCENTER USE ONLY
LDX 622 PAGES 2
TTY
CITE
FROM: GORDON STRACHAN
DTG 301635Z/TT
INFO:
RELEASED BY one
TOR: 3016482
SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS:
URGENT
'72 AUG 30 Pil 2 50
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: August 30, 1972
TO:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
John Davies at Gallup gave me
the attached information which
corresponds with Benham's records
and our 1972 files.
Davies doubts there are pre-July
trial heats but has asked Gallup
research to check. Benham says
pre-July Gallup trial heat polls
were not released to the public,
though they may have been conducted.
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JAN
53-47
FEB
49-34-11- 6
MAR
50-50
APR
46-31-15- 8
47-53
45-32-16- 7
46-54
49-39-12
MAY
49-51
53-34-13
55-35-10
JUN
51-49
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
48-52
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-37- 7
51-43- 6
53-47
57-31-12
AUG
48-37-4-2- 9
29-65-6
45-29-18-8
50-50
64-30- 6
.
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2- 9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
49-51
29-65-6
43-28-21-8
51-49
32-68-0
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
48-52
OCT
50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
52-40-8
50-50
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
55-45-0
49-44-4-2- 0
47-53
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
49-51
32-61-7
DEC
Actual
(Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
43.4%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
44.4
42.0
50.1
61.1
42.7
(Other)
5.3
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5
P
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH GALLUP ORGANIZATION - August 29, 1972
Gally
G - The press report that we have indicates it's 60-34.
secy - Yes, that's right.
G - The President has 60?
secy - Yes, that's right.
G - And McGovern has 34?
secy - Uh, hmmm.
G - And that will be for release Thursday?
secy - Yes, I believe SO.
G - OK. Is George Gallup, Jr. there?
secy - If you'll hold sir, I'll check in his office, OK?
G - Thank you.
secy- George has left for the day. I just called his secretary, but
I got a copy of the wire, because I hadn't even seen it yet, and
it says "The results of this latest survey is 64-30."
G - 64-30. What were the polling dates? Was it
...
S - It was conducted just this past weekend
G - August 26-27. 64-30. And that will be available Thursday, huh?
S - Yes, We'll release them tomorrow.
G - OK. Very good.
S - OK?
G - And John will be back tomorrow?
S - Yes, he should be.
G - Thank you very much.
S - Bye now.
PHONE CONVERSATION WITH JOHN DAVIES - August 29, 1972
D - What's your problem?
G - I'm curious, what - have we got the stuff back from the weekend
yet?
D - Yes - 64-30.
G - 64-30 - that's great.
D - Isn't that incredible?
G - Jesus Christ - nobody's been that far ahead.
D - Well, that comes close to Johnson-Goldwater.
G - When's the release going to be?
D - Tomorrow.
G - Release tomorrow.
D - Sent by wire.
G - Fantastic. What will the lead be - do you know?
D - It's a wire to the newspapers - it's going to be sort of a bulletin -
it's going to be just three paragraphs. Just the fact that the
President has opened up an already wide lead -- blah, blah, blah -
you know.
G - Polling dates were over the weekend - 26 and 27?
D - Right. Sent Wednesday. It's probably one of the fastest reporting
dates we've ever had.
G - Yeah. We got a - you might be interested to know that we got a
news report on it.
D - Is that right?
G - Yeah.
D - From whom? One of the wires:
G - I'm not sure who it was. But - a pretty reliable source told us
out in San Clemente that that's what it would be.
- 2 -
D - Gordon, on a matter of campaign interest.
G - Yes?
D - Who's your who's the guy that does your publicity and handling
and goodies and all that sort of thing - you know. I'll tell you
what my problem is.
G - Sure.
D - I got a guy here who is in the city of Trenton who is a very, very
active Democrat, who is totally dissatisfied with McGovern. You
know he is' the former President of the City Council - he just
resigned today as a matter of fact, and he is going to be extremely
active in the campaign. There's been a lot of hullabaloo around
here for the last two or three weeks about his resigning and so on,
and everybody's sad to see him go and the whole business. And I
thought that if one of you guys could see fit to get a little picture
of the President and say "With appreciation for all the work you've
done in the City of Trenton" signed, you know, Richard. This would
go an awful long way in helping us on a local level. To sort of
put the needle in this guy.
G - OK. Sure. What's the guy's name?
D - All right. David J. Schroth.
G - OK. At what - I'm trying to figure out a mechanism or justification
or something. Should he be contacted by one of our guys like
...
D - No absolutely not. This should come from me. In other words, it
should go to me and I can make the presentation to him.
- 3 -
D - You see, I run the organization, you don't know this, but I run
the organization in Trenton - which puts myself in a very bad
bind in my office.
G - I see. And then you would give it to him.
D - Right.
G - OK. Let me see what I can do.
D - OK.
G - And then I'll be back to you.
D - Don't even bother being back to me about it. If you can, it
would be magnificent - if you can't, there's nothing else we
can do.
G - Well, we can work out something else, I'm sure we can work out
something.
D - You know what would be the greatest thing in the world is if
somebody could - they're feting him tonight SO to speak - so
if someone could send a telegram just to, you know, from the
White House Staff or something.
G - Are you going to be there?
D - Yes.
G - OK. Why don't you dictate it to me, that would be much easier.
D - OK. Something like - we've learned of your good works for the
City of Trenton over the past 7 years as a member of the City
Council and its President or as President of the City Council.
He's going to become a Municipal Court Judge, you see, and some-
thing like "with all best wishes" -- whatever, you know, "with
all best wishes for a very successful future in your new position"
- 4 -
D - or something like that. It doesn't even have - you know - anybody
could send it - you could send it - if you'll just turn around
and send it.
G - OK. Who should it go to SO that it will be read and so forth.
D - Well, why don't you send it to me.
G - OK. Where will you be tonight.
D - c/o Lorenzo's Restaurant is on Clinton Avenue, Trenton, New Jersey.
That would save you the problem having to go through all the
...
G - Yeah. That also takes an awful long time as you can imagine to get
...
GALLUP POLL TRIAL HEATS
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Wallace
Wallace
Thurmond
JAN
53-47
FEB
49-34-11- 6
MAR
50-50
APR
47-53
46-31-15- 8
45-32-16- 7
46-54
MAY
49-39-12
49-51
53-34-13
JUN
55-35-10
51-49
35-40-16-9
53-37-10
(Kefauver)
JUL
48-36-5- -10
45-43-12
61-37-2
48-52
20-76-4
40-38-16-6
56-37-7
AUG
48-37-4-2- 9
51-43- 6
53-47
57-31-12
29-65-6
45-29-18-8
50-50
64-30-6
43-31-19-7
SEP
46-39-4-2- 9
51-42- 7
52-41-7
49-51
29-65-6
51-49
32-68-0
43-28-21-8
44-29-20-7
46-40-4-2- 8
18-52
OCT
50-44-4-2- 0
45-38-17
52-40-8
50-50
29-64-7
43-31-20-6
49-44-4-2- 0
55-45-0
47-53
44-36-15-5
42-40-14-4
NOV
59.5-40.5
49-51
32-61-7
DEC
Actual (Rep)
45.1%
55.1%
57.4%
49.9%
38.5%
Vote
(Dem)
49.6
43.4%
44.4
42.0
50.1
61.1
(Other)
5.3
42.7
.5
.6
.4
.4
(AIP) 13.5