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This file contains: To: H.R. Haldeman From: Harry Dent RE: letter from Rob Minor to Harry Dent about a copy of a recent poll of 910 Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama students. Letter and Data attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972 To: L.R. From: Gordon Strachan RE: File Alabama Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1971 To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. Includes Technical Comments and Substantive Results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1971 To: Committee to Encourage Winton Blount to Run for the U.S. Senate From: Jimmy Allison (Allison Treleaven & Rietz Incorporated) RE: Excerpts from a statewide Alabama survey conducted June 21-July 14, 1971. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/8/1971 To: Gordon Strachan From: L.Higby RE: Pulling one-page excerpt of important items contained to attached. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE: Alabama survey. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date Market Opinion Research Poll on Alabama. All interviewing was done between June 21 and July 14, 1971 in order to provide base data on Alabama voters prior to the 1972 election year. 71 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date

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This file contains: To: H.R. Haldeman From: Harry Dent RE: letter from Rob Minor to Harry Dent about a copy of a recent poll of 910 Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama students. Letter and Data attached. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 5/1/1972 To: L.R. From: Gordon Strachan RE: File Alabama Poll. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], no date To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/5/1971 To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. Includes Technical Comments and Substantive Results. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/4/1971 To: Committee to Encourage Winton Blount to Run for the U.S. Senate From: Jimmy Allison (Allison Treleaven & Rietz Incorporated) RE: Excerpts from a statewide Alabama survey conducted June 21-July 14, 1971. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/8/1971 To: Gordon Strachan From: L.Higby RE: Pulling one-page excerpt of important items contained to attached. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/17/1971 Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE: Alabama survey. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Other Document], no date Market Opinion Research Poll on Alabama. All interviewing was done between June 21 and July 14, 1971 in order to provide base data on Alabama voters prior to the 1972 election year. 71 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 44 5 5/1/1972 Campaign Memo To: H.R. Haldeman From: Harry Dent RE: letter from Rob Minor to Harry Dent about a copy of a recent poll of 910 Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama students. Letter and Data attached. 3pgs 44 5 > Campaign Memo To: L.R. From: Gordon Strachan RE: File Alabama Poll. 1pg 44 5 10/5/1971 Campaign Memo To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. 1pg 44 5 10/4/1971 Campaign Memo To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama. Includes Technical Comments and Substantive Results. 1pg 44 5 9/8/1971 Campaign Memo To: Committee to Encourage Winton Blount to Run for the U.S. Senate From: Jimmy Allison (Allison Treleaven & Rietz Incorporated) RE: Excerpts from a statewide Alabama survey conducted June 21-July 14, 1971. 3pgs 44 5 9/17/1971 Campaign Memo To: Gordon Strachan From: L.Higby RE: Pulling one-page excerpt of important items contained to attached. 1pg 44 5 Campaign Other Document Handwritten notes (author unknown) RE: Alabama survey. 2pgs Tuesday, February 07, 2012 Page 1 of 2 Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 44 5 > Campaign Report Market Opinion Research Poll on Alabama. All interviewing was done between June 21 and July 14, 1971 in order to provide base data on Alabama voters prior to the 1972 election year. 71pgs Tuesday, February 07, 2012 Page 2 of 2 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date : May 1, 1972 all To: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: HARRY DENT ABD Please handle For your information alabama party State Executive Committee April 28, 1972 Mr. Harry Dent The White House Washington, D. C. Dear Mr. Dent: Dick Bennett asked me to send you a copy of a recent poll of 910 students at Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama. As you can see, the overwhelming majority of the students were for President Nixon. I thought that you might want this information for your files. A Senatorial preference is also shown with Mr. Blount leading Mr. Nettles and both leading Mr. Martin. Sincerely, Rob Minor ROB MINOR, Executive Director RM/jlp Enclosure NUMBER JJ ES.CANVASSED 91.0 NJMBLR REGISTER of 600.0 PERCENTAGE 0.659 NUMBER NOT REGISTERED 310.0 PERCENTAGE 0.341 PARTY PREFERENCE REPUBLICAN 243.0 PERCENTAGE 0.257 DEMOCRAT 110.0 PERCENTAGE 0.121 INDEPENDENT 557.0 PERCENTAGE 2,512 PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE (ANSWERED BY REPUB. ICANS & INDEPENDENTS) NIXIN 596.0 PERCENTAGE 7.754 MUSKIE 13.0 PERCENTAGE 0.016 WALLACE 90.0 PERCENTAGE 0.114 OTHER 18.0 PERCENTAGE 0.23 UNDECIDED 73.0 PERCENTAGE 0.092 REPUBLICAN SENATOR PREFERENCE (ANSWERED BY GJP 5 IND. ALA. RESIDENTS) NETTLES 155.0 PERCENTAGE 0.252 BLOUNT 189.0 PERCENTAGE 7.373 MARTIN 148.0 PERCENTAGE 7.237 UNDECIDED 131. PERCENTAGE 0.210 END OF CANVASS DATA CONSTLTANT AND PROGRAMMER BUTCH NOA 338 WEST GLENN ST. AUBURN, ALABAMA 36830 PHONE 205-821-3838 CANVASS BY AUBURN UNIVERSITY YOUNG REPUBLICAN CLJB P. 0. BOX 1003 AUBURN, ALABAMA 36832 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: TO: LR J FROM: GORDON STRACHAN File alabama Poll October 5, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN 2/2 Eir FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama You asked for a one page summary of the MOR poll of Alabama conducted between June 21 and July 14 under the direction of Allison Treleaven and Rietz for the Committee to Encourage Winton Blount to Run for the U.S. Senate. Even without the material on Blount's candidacy the results are interesting, but technical weaknesses cast doubt on the poll's accuracy: 1) Although 805 personal interviews would yield results with a statistical error of + 3.58, an indeterminate number of deecret ballots" were administered either as part of or substitutes for the personal interviews; 2) Only 64 Republicans and 61 18-24 year olds were interviewed yet conclusions are offered without noting that the accuracy level would be no better than + 7-128, 3) If any "weighting" process were used to assure accuracy of the sample there is no discussion of the process. Only a crude "verifi- cation" system that compares known voting results from 1968 with the claimed voting behavior of the respondents is mentioned; 4) The report contains internally contradictory statements; 5) The demographic table indicates that 50% of the respondents refused to give their age. One wonders how successful the inter- viewers were in obhaining accurate results to other questions. Substantive results of interest include: 1) In either two-way (Nixon-Wallace) or three-way trial heats the President loses Alabama but not by much (2.1 if Nixon vs. Wallace; 2.7, 6.8 and 8.1 if Nixon vs. Muskie, Humphrey or Kennedy respectively, with Wallace as a third party candidate. 2) In non-Wallace trial heats MOR does not probe who benefits from Wallace's absence; 3) The open-end and comparative position before and during Nixon's Presidency indicate that 20% of those who disapprove of the President mention he "is not working hard enough," yet only 11.2% mention bussing as a source of disapproval. 4) Alabamans rank the social issue first, Vietnam second, the economy third and the environment fourth. GS:elr THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON October 4, 1971 MEMORANDUM FOR: H. R. HALDEMAN FROM: GORDON STRACHAN SUBJECT: Market Opinion Research Poll of Alabama Technical Comments The substantive results, even without the material on Blount's candidacy, are interesting, but the technical weaknesses cast considerable doubt on the accuracy of the poll. 805 personal interviews would yield results with a statistical error of + 3.5%, but an indeterminate number of "secret ballots" were administered. In addition, conclusions are based on 61 18 to 24 year olds and 64 Republicans, yet the report does not mention that the accuracy level would be no better than + 7-12% for these two groups. There is no discussion of the type of "weighting" process which may or may not have beeh used to assess the accuracy of the initial sample. Instead MOR used only a "verification" system that compares known voting results from 1968 and the claimed voting behavior of the respondents. Conflicting statements in the report undermine its credibility: "a sample of regist- ered voters in the state of Alabama" VS. (a) pproximately 84% of the adults interviewed are registered voters in Alabama." Also, the demo- graphic table indicating that 50% of the respondents refused to give their age makes the interviewers' representation of the balance of the results questionable. Finally, a copy of the actual questionnaire should have been included. Substantive Results In either two-way (Nixon-Wallace) or three-way the President loses Alabama but not by much (2.1 if Nixon VS. Wallace; 2.7, 6.8 and 8.1 if Nixon VS. Muskie, Humphrey and Kennedy respectively, with Wallace as third party candidate). MOR offers non-Wallace trial heats, but does not probe who benefits from Wallace not being in the race. Also, MOR surprisingly claims that Kennedy leads Muskie and Humphrey against Nixon with Wallace out of the race. The perception of political figures section of the survey contains use- ful open-ended questions, such as " (w) hy do you disapprove of the way Nixon is handling his job as President?" as well as the comparative pos- ition questions such as (s) ince President Nixon became President, have (Vietnam, Racial Problems, etc.) become better or worse?" The two most interesting results in this section are: 20% disapprove of Nixon be- cause he "is not working hard enough, while only 11.2% mention the school bussing situation as a source of disapproval. Few in Alabama believe the President is responsible for bussing because a follow-up question indicates that 67.9% blame the Federal courts while only 5.5% blame the President. Of course, the interviewing was conducted before the mid-summer heat on bussing, so these results might have changed. ALLISON TRELEAVEN & RIETZ INCORPORATED CONF IDENTIAL By Emprise NARS Date 5-23 2-102 section 12069' "0"H ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING September 8, 1971 NV 38 OL Memo To: Committee to Encourage Winton Blount - to Run for the U.S. Senate From: Jimmy Allison : Attached are excerpts from a statewide Alabama survey conducted June 21 - July 14, 1971 by Market Opinion Research of Detroit, Michigan. When reviewing the Presidential information, it should be noted that the survey was made prior to the President's economic policy address. It also was made, however, before the recent heat on bussing increased in the South. I think it's safe to say that, on balance, the President today would still rate the same or possibly higher than shown in this research. I. Presidential Information The President makes a good showing in Alabama. In my opinion, he comes much closer to Wallace in both the three-man ràce and the head-to-head contest than most professionals in Alabama would say is possible. Wallace still is strong but it's evident his strength is slowly declining. This is true largely because he has been in office and, as Governor, has had to deal with unpopular tax and spending problems. His peak was reached in 1968 and he's had nowhere to go but down. Remember, he was just barely elected Governor over Albert Brewer. Of course, Wallace's decline is not the sole reason for the President's good showing. People in Alabama feel he has done a good job generally, that he's "doing his best", trying to "bring the boys home, etc." He defeats all Democrats by wide margins, although it is interesting to note that Kennedy does slightly better against Nixon than the others. Kennedy's increase all comes in District 6 (Birmingham), where he does much better with young voters and Blacks against Nixon than the other Democrats. 1225 19TH STREET NW WASHINGTON DC 20036 (202) 833 1764 -2- It's realistic to say that a Presidential race today in Alabama would be a close one. But this should be encouraging to the Administration, because in other Southern states Wallace certainly wouldn't be as strong as he is in Alabama. Nixon's two significant weaknesses in Alabama are the economy and the "bussing/doesn't keep his promises" concern. A year from now both of these could be cooled. If so, the President will be in good shape. II. The Blount Candidacy As for the Red Blount candidacy, there are a lot of encouraging facts in the report. First, the President's popularity is a real plus. Realistically, a candidate can't ride his coattails, but an unpopular President can defeat the candidate. The Blount awareness is higher than I would have guessed 63%. It's significant too that the percentage is even higher among ticket-splitters -- 74.7%. For a non-incumbent this far before an election, cabinet member or not, this high an' identification is a favorable sign. This is especially true because there are no real negatives against Blount. Increased postal rates, etc. just aren't real issues, nor is his wealth. The big plus in the survey is the fact that Sparkman does not get 50% of the vote in any test against Blount. The undecided count is fairly heavy but that is natural at this stage of the game. An incumbent's in trouble when he cannot muster 50%. The survey shows that Blount handily defeats any other Democrat including Lambert Mims, John Cashen and Jimmie Faulkner. And he defeats Jim Martin in a Primary in seven of the eight Districts (Martin carries only his own, the 7th). No other Republican shows any weight in the survey. The poll conclusively shows that no other Republican has a chance to defeat Sparkman except Blount. But Blount's chances have to be considered uphill. First, there's a very small, straight Republican vote and, as we know, the Party is functioning poorly at the state level in Alabama. This means he'll have to pull about 85% of the ticket-splitters and 40% of the Democrats to win. Secondly, there are few issues for a campaign with the exception of Sparkman's age. Many people identified him as old or in office too long and this is a plus handled correctly. But there's no Gore or Yarborough stigma to Sparkman in Alabama. The issues have to be youth and leadership and "He will do more for Alabama." Sparkman should be pushed as far to the left as possible, but this will be difficult. -3- The Blacks will be for Sparkman. There should be no great financial expenditure to attract this vote because it can't be won. The best solution would be for a John Cashen to run as a 3rd Party Senate candidate. Each vote he attracts will come from Sparkman, not Blount, so encouragement of a Black candidate is in order. III. Summary: The Senate race is winnable but a "mistake-free" campaign is necessary. We know that the turnout will be high in the Presidential year so a positive campaign to attract the ticket-splitters and Democrats is called for. A real study of the Danforth-Symington race in Missouri in 1970 needs to be made as there are many similarities --- age of candidate, lack of conservative/liberal issues, relatively high awareness of non-incumbent, little chance to get the Black vote, poor Republican organization, etc. As we said in our earlier report, the odds probably are 60/40 against us. But they're no worse than any other Southern campaign this far before the election --- and in recent years we've won some with even greater odds against the Republican candidate. Encs. JA:erh THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON September 17, 1971 ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR: GORDON STRACHAN FROM: L. HIGBY Bob asked that you pull out a one-page excerpt of the important items contained in the attached. He views this as a test of your insight in this whole area. Pull carefully. Attachment ala- - 1) purpose of survey not realized in allison Hemmory 2) pers in + secret bollots mail ? 3) allison cover mentions Econ eat not crina - note dates of 4) sampl interviewing evor 3.5 - of ORC nopl-5) morginal? am 2nd Pa ? ? co) Cong Dis 7.9.0.15.9 L distation 7) 11.5% DK own ne & analysis of vote needed hl segments sweak - more on one forgel other a) Dems older + Rs younger ? 10) age demos- - 15 graphise = prelis 3 TP S no base for compar one Blount 2 >> good accuracy open endFU M Form UP agree - is most Wallace repport-aming public(media) notmuel mp ul mistreats blades- amaging of Questions - worse off, make letter off god oniosies Issues Social is, is then un Rating -genl, singe + FU meatimp Dest Do break good for Cand know whl iss to puna Environ - tied u/ loss of jobs no cross brealco -whe - same ap/Rn as wal ? Ultemately integrate -interesting ALFR but note bassing balance MARKET OPINION RESEARCH FOREWORD Purpose The purpose of this study was to provide base data on Alabama voters prior to the 1972 election year. The study sought to: (1) identify the ballot strengths and weaknesses of various Presidential and Senatorial candidates (2) analyze voter perceptions and awarenesses of incumbent office holders and of the abilities of their potential challengers (3) determine the factors that can be influential in voters' ballot decisions (4) identify the national and state issue structure of voters in Alabama Research Design Eight hundred and five (805) personal interviews and secret ballots were administered to a sample of registered voters in the State of Alabama. All interviewing was done between June 21 and July 14, 1971. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Interviewing was conducted by professional interviewers under the supervision of Market Interviews, a wholly owned subsidiary of Market Opinion Research. The sample of registered voters interviewed was selected in a manner to guarantee their representativeness of the registered voter population in Alabama. A probability-proportionate-to-size stratified area sampling design was used. This technique allows precise computation of the probable sampling error in the research estimates: the standard error (sampling error) of a sample of 800 is + 3.5%. This means that an interval of 3.5% on either side of the percentage results found in this survey will very probably contain the true population value. As a verification of the sample, the report of the past vote was checked against the actual Alabama vote in the 1968 Presidential election. The figures for the Humphrey vote are within sampling tolerance, while those for the Wallace vote are not. This finding is consistent with the observed tendency of voters to overclaim the victor (Nixon) and underclaim the loser in a post election survey. 1968 Presidential Election Actual Vote Poll Committed Vote Nixon 14.0% 32.8% Humphrey 18.7 18.7 Wallace 65.9 49.0 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH For purposes of analysis, the data were broken in five ways: Number Of Percentage Of Respondents Respondents By Type of Voter Republican 67 8.3% Ticket-splitter 178 22.1 Democrat 380 47.2 Marginal 180 22.4 By Congressional District One 98 12.2 Two 88 11.0 Three 112 13.9 Four 64 7.9 Five 96 11.9 Six 107 13.3 Seven 128 15.9 Eight 112 13.9 By Age of Respondent 18 to 24 61 7.6 25 to 34 141 17.5 35 to 44 123 15.3 45 to 54 143 17.8 55 to 64 162 20.1 65 and over 167 20.7 Don't know 8 1.0 By Income of Respondent 0 - $4,999 284 35.3 $5,000 - $9,999 256 31.8 $10,000 - $14,999 102 12.7 $15,000 and over 70 8.7 Don't know 93 11.5 By Race of Respondent White 636 79.0 Black 163 20.2 Don't know 6 .8 Questionnaire response editing, coding, keypunching, computing, tabulation, and analysis were performed by trained personnel and computer systems at the Market Opinion Research office in Detroit, Michigan. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH BACKGROUND Introduction The adult population can be categorized into four groups, based on their past voting behavior. The behavioral Republican voter group consists of persons who vote either a straight Republican ticket or who vote mostly Republican. The behavioral Democrat. similarly, consists of persons who vote a straight Democratic ticket or who vote mostly Democratic. The behavioral Ticket Splitter consists of persons who divide their votes between Republican and Democratic tickets in some roughly equal proportion. The Marginal voters consists of persons who did not vote in the last election and who do not remember how they voted. The definitions of these four groups is well established in political research and is of considerable use in data analysis. The groups occur in the adult population in the following proportions: Type of Voter % of Total Adults Republican 8.3 % Ticket Splitter 24.1 Democratic 47.2 Marginal 24.2 A Republican candidate, to win in an Alabama election by even a small margin will need (1) very strong support among his own party, (2) to dominate among the Ticket Splitters, and (3) to run fairly strong among his opponent's party. Furthermore, (4) he would have to secure almost half of the vote of those MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Marginal voters that do turn out. For example: Candidate A (Republican): 53% of popular vote needed to win: % Vote Among Party % of Popular Vote Party/Voter Type % of Total Voters Needed by Candidate A Needed Republican 8.3% 95% 7.9% Ticket Splitter 24.1 85 20.4 18.8 Democrat 47.2 42 20.0 19.8 Marginal 24.0 22.4 20 4.8 4.5 100.0 Popular Vote of Candidate A 51.0% Congressional Districts by Voter Type In all eight Alabama Congressional Districts the Democratic voters outnumber all other voter types. Congressional Districts Two, Four, Five, Seven, and Eight are the most heavily Democratic. On the other hand, there are propor- tionately more Republicans in Districts Six, Seven, and Eight. Ticket Splitters are found most often in Districts One and Two. The Marginal voter appears most often in Districts Three, Five and Six. Congressional Districts Type of Voter Total One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Republican 8.3 4.1 2.3 3.6 6.3 4.2 14.9 14.9 12.5 Ticket Splitter 22.1 24.1 30.6 36.3 17.0 21.9 11.5 27.1 22.7 4 12.5 Democrat 47.2 44.9 44.1 38.4 51.6 50.0 38.3 53.9 64.2 Marginal 22.4 20.4 27.3 41.1 20.3 34.4 29.6 8.6 10.7 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Key Demographic Variables by Voter Type Among age groups, there are relatively more Democrats in the over 35 bracket. Republicans are found most often in the young-middle age group (25-34), and Ticket Splitters in a slightly more broad age group (25-44). The young (18-24) and the very old (65+) contain the largest proportion of Marginal Voters. Age Type of Voter Totals 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 64 Republican 8.3% 4.9% 13.4% 4.9% 9.1% 7.5% 8.4% Ticket Splitting 22.1 18.0 28.4 26.8 21.0 21.0 16.2 Democrat 47.2 11.5 37.5 52.8 53.9 55.6 50.3 Marginal 22.4 65.6 20.5 15.5 16.1 16.1 25.2 Among all income groups, the Democrat voter is the most prevalent type of voter. However, as income rises, the relative proportion of Democrats decreases, the proportion of Republicans and Ticket Splitters increases, and the proportion of Marginal voters decreases. While the lowest income group is four to one Demo- crats to Ticket Splitters and over eight to one Democrats to Republicans, the uppermost income group is only three to one Democrats to Ticket Splitters and three to one Democrats to Republicans. Among racial groups, blacks tend to be more Democratic or Marginal voter, and less Ticket Splitter or Republican than whites. Income Race $0- $5,000- $10,000- $15,000- Totals 5,000 10,000 15,000 Over White Black Republican 8.3% 6.0% 5.5% 11.8% 15.7% 9.7% 3.1% Ticket Splitter 22.1 13.4 26.9 31.3 30.0 25.0 11.6 Democratic 47.2 51.7 46.5 44.1 45.7 46.5 49.7 Marginal 22.4 28.9 21.1 12.8 8.6 18.7 35.6 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Registered Voters Approximately 84% of the adults interviewed are registered voters in Alabama. The Democrats are most registered (96.6%), the ticket-splitters very close by (94.4%), and the Republicans surprisingly lower (92.5%). The lowest group are the marginal voters (45.0%). Congressional Districts One, Three, Five, and Six are below the sample average proportion of adult registered voters. Expectedly, the young (18-24), the poor (income under $5,000) and the blacks have the highest levels of nonregistered voters. Are you a registered voter in Alabama? Type of Voter Income Age Under $5,000- Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg $5,000 $15,000 $15,000 18-24 Over 24 .100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes 84.2 92.5 94.4 96.6 45.0 81.3 84.6 91.4 50.8 86.8 No 15.8 7.5 5.6 3.4 55.0 18.7 15.4 8.6 29.2 13.2 Congressional Districts Race One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes 81.6 85.2 75.9 87.5 75.0 82.2 95.3 89.3 86.5 76.1 No 18.4 14.8 24.1 12.5 25.0 17.8 4.7 10.7 13.5 23.9 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Regularity of Voting Forty-one point four percent (41.4%) of the persons interviewed claim to vote in nearly all elections, while 29.9% indicate they vote in all elections. The proportion that votes in one-half or less is only 12.5%, and persons that do not vote in any elections total 13.4%. Ticket-splitters seem to be the most regular voters by a slight margin, Districts Four and Seven hold an edge on other Districts in terms of their regularity of voting, and whites vote more often and regularly than blacks. Thinking about all elections would you say that you Type of Voter Race Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Don't vote at all 13.4 1.5 -- 1.3 56.7 10.2 25.2 Vote in less than one-half 4.8 -- 2.8 6.6 5.0 3.8 9.2 Vote in one-half 7.7 9.0 11.8 7.1 4.4 7.7 6.7 Vote in nearly every election 41.4 49.3 47.2 50.3 13.9 43.9 32.5 Vote in all 29.9 32.8 37.1 33.4 14.4 31.4 25.2 Don't know 2.7 7.5 1.1 1.3 5.6 3.0 1.2 Congressional Districts Total One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Don't vote at all 13.4 16.3 14.8 23.2 12.5 18.8 17.8 4.7 1.8 Vote in less than one half 4.8 5.1 10.2 3.6 3.1 7.3 -- 2.3 8.0 Vote in one-half 7.7 8.2 8.0 .9 4.7 4.2 8.4 14.1 10.7 Vote in nearly every election 41.4 38.8 39.8 42.9 31.3 44.8 46.7 32.8 50.9 Vote in all 29.9 27.6 25.0 28.6 48.4 24.0 26.2 46.1 17.0 Don't know 2.7 4.1 2.3 .9 -- 1.0 .9 -- 11.6 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Perceived Voting Affiliation Quite aside from what type of voter a person might be on the basis of his past voting behavior, respondents were asked what they considered themselves ... Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Most persons see themselves as Democrats (49.4%), while 26.3% see themselves as Independents, and 14.3% as Republicans. About 10% (9.9%) indicate they don't know. A higher percentage of behavioral Republicans see themselves as Republicans than do behavioral Democrats see themselves as Democrats or behavioral ticket-splitters see themselves as Independents. This latter group, while splitting its tickets, tends to call itself Democratic more so than Republican. Do you consider yourself a Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marginal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Republican 14.3 82.1 9.6 3.7 16.1 Democrat 49.4 -- 27.5 77.1 31.1 Independent 26.3 14.9 55.6 16.1 23.3 Don't know 9.9 3.0 7.3 3.2 29.4 Key Past Elections In the 1968 Presidential election, 35.0% of the respondents indicated that they voted for Wallace, 23.5% for Nixon, 13.3% for Humphrey, and 28.4% did not vote/do not remember. Behavioral Republicans stood solidly behind Nixon, while MARKET OPINION RESEARCH ticket-splitters and marginals split between Wallace and Nixon. Behavioral Democrats supported Wallace followed by Humphrey and Nixon. Congressional District Six was the only one clearly for Nixon, the others going to Wallace (except for Four, which was tied between Nixon and Wallace). Wallace got his best support among the over-35 voters, from the under $10,000 income households and from whites, while Nixon got his support evenly across age groups, from upper income ($15,000+) households and from whites. Blacks went predominantly to Humphrey. How did you vote for President in 1968? Type of Voter Age Income Race $10,000 Over Under and Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg: 18-24 25-34 34 $10,000 Over White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 23.5 62.7 37.6 16.3 10.0 -- 26.2 25.4 18.7 39.0 26.7 11.7 Humphrey 13.0 3.0 7.9 21.6 3.9 1.6 12.8 14.1 14.6 11.0 5.0 43.6 Wallace 35.0 6.0 41.6 46.1 16.1 9.8 24.8 39.8 35.6 29.1 44.0 1.2 Didn't vote/D.K. 28.4 28.4 12.9 16.1 70.0 88.5 36.2 20.7 31.1 20.9 24.2 43.6 In the 1966 Senatorial election, 54.7% of the respondents indicate they voted for Sparkman, 5.5% for Grenier, and 39.8% did not vote or do not remember. All voter groups went to Sparkman by significant margins and Grenier was comparatively strong only in Districts Four and Six and among upper income households ($10,000+). MARKET OPINION RESEARCH How did you vote for Senator in 1966? Type of Voter Income $10,000 Under and Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. $10,000 Over 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Sparkman 54.7 41.8 59.6 71.3 19.4 53.5 56.4 Grenier 5.5 19.4 8.4 3.9 .6 3.0 11.6 Did not. vote/ Don't know 39.8 38.8 32.0 24.8 80.0 43.5 32.0 In the 1970 Gubernatorial election, 40.6% of the respondents claim voting for Wallace against 34.5% for Brewer, with 24.8% not voting/not knowing. Republicans went over two to one for Brewer, but ticket-splitters significantly preferred Wallace, and the behavioral Democrats gave Wallace a slim decisive edge. Brewer won Districts Four and Six and was close in Seven, all others going to Wallace. Higher income groups ($10,000+) went to Brewer, while blacks were heavily in favor of Brewer; a 30% nonvote cut down on Brewer's margin. Whites, of course, were heavily for Wallace. How did you vote for Governor in 1970? Type of Voter Income Race Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg $10,000 $10,000 White Black .100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Wallace 40.6 23.9 52.2 48.4 18.9 40.7 36.0 50.2 4.9 Brewer 34.5 52.2 37.6 41.1 11.1 31.9 43.6 28.3 58.9 Did not vote/ Don't know 24.8 23.9 10.1 10.6 70.0 27.4 20.3 21.5 36.2 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Voter Group Demographic Profiles Republicans are fairly similar demographically to ticket-splitters, and together they are considerably different from the Democratic and marginal voters. The Republican and ticket-splitterare significantly more likely to have a college or college post-graduate education, more likely to be in a higher income bracket ($10,000+), more likely to be in the 21-34 age groups, more likely to be white, more likely to be of the Roman Catholic religion, and more likely to be professional/technical in occupation. The Democrat, on the other hand, is more likely to have an education only up to high school, to have income under $10,000, to be blue collar, to be older (35 and above), to be black, and hold the Protestant faith. The marginal voter is somewhat similar to the Democrat, aside from the higher incidence of young people (18-24), housewives and students, lower than high school education and lower incomes. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Demographic Data Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% EDUCATION Grade school or less 27.7 19.4 18.5 29.2 36.7 Some high school 21.2 10.4 20.8 23.7 20.6 Graduated high school 29.2 32.8 28.1 30.3 26.7 Some college 11.3 14.9 13.5 10.8 8.9 Graduated college 6.6 9.0 12.9 4.2 4.4 Post graduate work 3.0 10.4 5.1 1.6 1.1 Refused 1.0 3.0 1.1 .3 1.7 INCOME 0 - $2,999 20.0 14.9 10.1 21.3 28.9 $3,000 - $4,999 15.3 10.4 11.2 17.4 16.7 $5,000 6 $5,999 9.1 1.5 10.7 7.6 13.3 $6,000 - $6,999 10.1 9.0 11.2 11.1 7.2 $7,000 - $9,999 12.7 10.4 16.9 12.6 9.4 $10,000 - $14,999 12.7 17.9 18.0 11.8 7.2 $15,000 - $24,999 7.5 14.9 10.7 7.1 2.2 $25,000 and over 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 Refused 11.6 19.4 10.1 9.7 13.9 AGE 18 - 20 years 2.6 -- -- -- 11.7 21 - 24 years 5.0 4.5 6.2 1.8 10.6 25 - 29 years 9.6 13.4 12.4 7.1 10.6 30 - 34 years 8.0 14.9 10.1 6.8 5.6 35 - 39 years 6.8 6.0 10.7 6.6 3.9 40 - 44 years 8.4 3.0 7.9 10.5 6.7 45 - 49 years 8.7 11.9 9.6 8.7 6.7 50 - 54 years 9.1 7.5 7.3 11.6 6.¹ 55 - 59 years 60 - 64 years 50% 10.8 7.5 10.1 13.4 7.2 9.3 10.4 9.0 10.3 7.2 65 and over 20.7 20.9 15.2 22.1 23.3 Refused 1.0 -- 1.7 1.1 .6 SEX Male 50.4 47.8 52.2 51.3 47.8 Female 49.6 52.2 47.8 48.7 52.2 NATIONAL ORIGIN American born white 78.5 92.5 88.8 77.4 65.6 Negro 20.2 7.5 10.7 21.3 32.2 Foreign born .5 -- .6 .5 .6 Not stated .7 -- -- .8 1.7 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Demographic Data (Continued) Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% UNION MEMBERSHIP Yes 14.3 13.4 12.9 16.3 11.7 No 80.7 83.6 82.6 77.4 85.0 Not stated 5.0 3.0 4.5 6.3 3.3 RELIGION Jewish -- -- -- -- -- Protestant 91.7 89.6 92.7 93.7 87.2 Roman Catholic 3.5 9.0 3.9 2.6 2.8 Other 4.2 1.5 2.8 3.4 8.3 Not stated .6 -- .6 .3 1.7 OCCUPATION-RESPONDENT Professional/Technical 6.8 14.9 11.2 4.5 4.4 Farm owners/Managers 2.6 -- 2.8 2.9 2.8 Officials/Business owner 4.7 4.5 5.6 6.1 1.1 Clerical/Sales workers 7.3 9.0 7.9 8.4 3.9 Skilled craftsmen/Foremen 7.1 6.0 5.1 9.2 5.0 Operatives/Kindred workers 10.6 3.0 8.4 12.4 11.7 Service workers/Laborers 8.2 6.0 5.6 8.2 11.7 Housewife/Student 34.7 37.3 36.0 30.5 41.1 Retired 15.3 19.4 15.2 16.3 11.7 Unemployed/Disabled/Refused 2.7 -- 2.3 1.6 6.7 OCCUPATION-HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD Professional/Technical 9.2 19.4 12.9 6.1 8.3 Farm owners/Managers 4.5 -- 5.6 4.5 5.0 Officials/Business owner 7.2 7.5 8.4 7.6 5.0 Clerical/Sales workers 8.9 17.9 9.6 8.7 5.6 Skilled craftsmen/Foremen 13.7 6.0 13.5 15.5 12.8 Operatives/Kindred workers 14.9 7.5 12.9 16.8 15.6 Service workers/Laborers 10.2 9.0 9.0 10.0 12.2 Housewife/Student 9.1 11.9 9.6 8.4 8.9 Retired 18.3 19.4 14.0 19.7 18.9 Unemployed/Disabled/Refused 3.7 1.5 2.8 2.6 7.8 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Ratings of Factors Important to Voters in an Election Respondents were asked to consider each of eleven possible factors in election decisions and to then rate the factor on an eleven point scale, depending on how to important it was them. The total electorate rates Honesty by a significant margin as the most important factor (9.5) in deciding which candidate to vote for. This is followed by Intelligence (9.2). Next are Position on Vietnam (8.4), Experience and Position on racial problems (both 8.3), followed by Maturity (8.1) and Position on unemployment (8.0). Position on pollution (7.5) comes next, with Youthfulness (4.9) and Political party (4.5) following. Last and expressed as fairly unimportant is the Area of the state the candidate is from (3.0). This latter rating is an interesting result, considering the variability of the secret ballot races by Congressional District. It indicates that people do have geographic (local) favorites in spite of what they claim to be true under a direct question. When the data are broken by type of voter, Republicans tend to rate Position on Vietnam and Intelligence more important than other voters. Ticket Splitters give notably lower ratings to Area of state, Political party, Position on Vietnam, Youthfulness; they give higher ratings to Position on racial problems and maturity. Democrats put a premium on Experience, Political party, Position on unemployment, and Area of state. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Rate how important each of the following factors will be to you in deciding which candidate to vote for (Important is scaled from 0, very unimportant, to 11, extremely important) Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. Honesty 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 Intelligence 9.2 9.5 9.4 9.1 9.1 Position on Vietnam 8.4 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.6 Experience 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.4 8.2 Position on racial problems 8.3 8.1 8.4 8.2 8.3 Maturity 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.0 7.8 Position on unemployment 8.0 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.1 Position on pollution 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.3 Youthfulness 4.9 5.2 4.8 5.1 4.5 Political party 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.1 4.2 Area of state he's from 3.0 2.4 2.8 3.6 2.9 Ratings of Political Endorsements Respondents were also asked to rate how important to them a political endorsement by each of several figures would be. Endorsements, in general, are valued low, as indicated by the low ratings on the eleven point scale. Among the total electorate, endorsements by George Wallace are said to be most important, followed by those of President Nixon and close behind, Albert Brewer and James Allen. Least important are endorsements by Attorney General John Mitchell, Hubert Humphrey, and Senator Edmund Muskie. Republicans value endorsements by Nixon, Allen, and Agnew the most. Ticket-splitters say those by Nixon and Wallace are most important, while Democrats say Brewer and Wallace are most important. Marginals give a Wallace endorsement the highest rating, followed by one from Senator Edward Kennedy. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Rate how important the endorsement of each of the following persons is to you Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. George Wallace 4.6 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.0 Richard Nixon 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 Albert Brewer 4.1 4.2 3.7 4.7 3.7 James Allen 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 Spiro Agnew 3.3 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.8 Edward* Kennedy 2.8 2.4 1.7 2.8 4.2 Edmund Muskie 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.5 Hubert Humphrey 2.7 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.7 John Mitchell 2.6 3.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Presidential Race 1. Nixon - Muskie - Wallace At the present time, voters in Alabama place Governor Wallace slightly ahead of President Nixon (33.3% to 30.6%), with Senator Muskie trailing far behind (11.9%). Almost one-quarter (24.2%) of all persons polled indicate they are presently undecided. .Over the various repeat ballots conducted on this Presidential race (needed to test the combination of Senatorial candidates) there are no significant differences between each candidate's polling. Wallace runs strongly with the traditional Democratic voting group and takes about half of the ticket-splitters. . Wallace is also strong among the marginal voters. Nixon follows a similar pattern, except that he pulls more of the core Republicans than Wallace does of the core Democrats. Muskie's support comes from the traditional Democrats, who as a group vote for Nixon as often as they do Muskie. Geographically, Nixon's strength and leadership is found in central Alabama, Congressional Districts Four, Five, Six and Seven. Wallace dominates in the south and northernmost parts of the State (Districts One, Two, Three, and Eight), being weak in the regions of Nixon's strength (Districts Six and Seven). Muskie makes his strongest showing relative to his statewide average in Districts Three through Six, even though these areas are dominated by Nixon and Wallace. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH In terms of demographic groups, Wallace leads Nixon the over 35 age groups, in the under $10,000 income groups, and among whites. Aside from the support from younger voters, this pattern is similar to the pattern of upper-end socio-economic support for the Republican candidate observed elsewhere in the nation. Muskie is more similar to Nixon than Wallace in his support. Muskie runs stronger with younger voters, higher income voters, and blacks than he does with older, lower income or white voters. Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 30.6 74.6 44.9 18.7 25.0 Muskie 11.9 -- 2.8 18.2 12.2 Wallace 33.3 6.0 37.1 33.7 38.9 Undecided 24.2 19.4 15.2 29.5 23.9 Congressional Districts One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 28.6 28.4 15.2 35.9 38.5 43.9 35.9 20.5 Muskie 8.2 5.7 17.0 14.1 13.5 19.6 10.2 7.1 Wallace 43.9 51.1 44.6 31.3 31.3 6.5 20.3 42.0 Undecided 19.4 14.8 23.2 18.8 16.7 29.9 33.6 30.4 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Demographic Tables Total Nixon Muskie Wallace Undecided INCOME 0 - $4,999 100% 22.9 11.6 33.5 32.0 $5,000 - $9,999 100% 29.7 14.5 36.7 19.1 $10,000 - $14,999 100% 39.2 11.8 32.4 16.7 $15,000 and over 100% 52.9 10.0 21.4 15.7 AGE 18 - 24 years 100% 37.7 13.1 27.9 21.3 25 - 34 years 100% 34.8 13.5 34.0 17.7 35 - 44 years 100% 30.9 14.6 31.7 22.8 45 - 54 years 100% 31.5 13.3 32.2 23.1 55 - 64 years 100% 22.2 10.5 34.0 33.3 65 years and over 100% 31.1 9.0 ,34.7 25.1 RACE White 100% 30.7 7.5 40.9 20.9 Black 100% 29.4 29.4 3.1 38.0 2. Nixon - Wallace When Wallace faces Nixon alone on the Presidential ballot, the President trails by a narrower margin than previously, 2:1%. More than one- quarter of those polled indicate they are undecided between the two candidates at this time. There are no significant differences between these proportions over five ballots administered on which this was the Presidential choice. The vote that previously went to Muskie goes to Nixon (4.4%), Wallace (3.8%) and undecided (3.6%). Among voter groups, the core Republicans are eight to one in favor of Nixon over Wallace, and the ticket-splitters give Nixon a significant edge over Wallace (48.3% to 33.7%). Behavioral Democrats are less MARKET OPINION RESEARCH certain: while they favor Wallace by a two-to-one margin, more than one-third are undecided. Marginal voters go for Wallace more than Nixon, by a small margin (6.1%). As previously, Nixon leads in central Alabama, Congressional Districts Four, Five, Six, and Seven. Wallace's strength comes from Districts One, Two, Three, and Eight (southern and northernmost parts of Alabama). As might be expected, each candidate is weakest in the other's strongest region. Demographic patterns follow the trends established previously in the Nixon, Muskie, Wallace race: persons most in. favor of Nixon come from the under 44 age groups, the over $10,000 income groups, and the blacks, while the older, lower income, and white voters in Alabama are more likely to support Wallace. Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 35.0 74.6 48.3 22.6 33.3 Wallace 37.1 9.0 33.7 42.6 39.4 Undecided 27.8 16.4 18.0 34.7 27.2 Congressional Districts One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 32.7 29.5 20.5 42.2 43.8 53.3 39.8 21.4 Wallace 48.0 50.0 50.0 34.4 34.4 8.4 32.8 41.1 Undecided 19.4 20.5 29.5 23.4 21.9 38.3 27.3 37.5 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Demographic Tables Total Nixon Wallace Undecided INCOME 0 - $4,999 100% 29.6 35.9 34.5 $5,000 - $9,999 100% 32.0 43.4 24.6 $10,000 - $14,999 100% 43.1 34.3 22.5 $15,000 and over 100% 58.6 21.4 20.0 AGE 18 - 24 years 100% 50.8 29.5 19.7 25 - 34 years 100% 38.3 35.5 26.2 35 - 44 years 100% 39.0 35.8 25.2 45 - 54 years 100% 33.6 36.4 30.1 55 - 64 years 100% 24.7 40.1 35.2 65 and over 100% 34.7 38.9 26.3 RACE White 100% 32.2 45.0 22.8 Black 100% 45.4 6.1 48.5 3. Nixon - Humphrey - Wallace In this three-way Presidential race, Wallace leads Nixon by a significant margin (35.7% to 28.9%), and Humphrey polls a distant third with 14.4% of the ballots. Compared to the Nixon-Wallace race, Humphrey's support has emerged primarily from the ranks of the undecided and previously- Nixon voters. In addition, Humphrey runsslightly stronger than Muskie as the Democratic candidate (14.4% for Humphrey, 11.9% for Muskie). Nixon runs very strong among core Republicans, more so than does Wallace run among core Democrats. Ticket-splitters favor Nixon by a slight margin. Democrats favor Wallace by a substantial margin over Humphrey and Nixon, who run fairly close. Marginal voters favor Wallace by almost two to one over Nixon, with Humphrey plasing third. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Geographically, Nixon leads in central Alabama as previously. Humphrey shows most support in Congressional Districts Four, Five, and Six, while Wallace is again leading in southern and northernmost Alabama. The demographic groups in support of the candidates are similar to patterns observed previously with the following exceptions: the younger voters are only slightly more in favor of Nixon and the group is limited to those aged 18 - 24. Wallace leads in all other age groups. Apparently placing Humphrey on the ballot pushes the younger voter more to Wallace instead of Nixon. Higher income voters tend to vote Nixon, while the black vote goes heavily to Humphrey. Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 28.9 76.1 43.8 16.6 22.8 Humphrey 14.4 3.0 4.5 20.5 15.6 Wallace 35.7 6.0 38.8 37.1 40.6 Undecided 21.0 14.9 12.9 25.8 21.1 Congressional Districts One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 26.5 27.3 14.3 37.5 30.2 39.3 36.7 22.3 Humphrey 9.2 8.0 10.7 14.1 19.8 30.8 11.7 10.7 Wallace 50.0 45.5 47.3 34.4 38.5 7.5 25.0 41.1 Undecided 14.3 19.3 27.7 14.1 11.5 22.4 26.6 25.9 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH C Demographic Tables Total Nixon Humphrey Wallace Undecided INCOME 0 - $4,999 100% 17.3 21.5 34.5 26.8 $5,000 - $9,999 100% 27.7 12.5 41.0 18.8 $10,000 - $14,999 100% 44.1 7.8 33.3 14.7 $15,000 and over 100% 57.1 8.6 21.4 12.9 AGE 18 - 24 years 100% 36.1 14.8 32.8 16.4 25 - *34 years 100% 34.8 12.1 36.9 16.3 35 - 44 years 100% 30.1 21.1 33.3 15.4 45 - 54 years 100% 28.7 14.0 33.6 23.8 55 - 64 years 100% 22.8 13.6 36.4 27.2 65 and over 100% 26.3 13.2 37.7 22.8 RACE White 100% 31.3 6.1 44.0 18.6 Black 100% 19.0 47.2 2.5 31.3 4. Nixon - Kennedy - Wallace Replacing Humphrey on the ballot with Kennedy has only slight effects upon each of the three Presidential candidates. As before, Wallace polls 34.2% to lead Nixon (26.1%) by a significant margin. Kennedy places third with 16.0% of the ballots. Wallace runs strong among the Democratic regulars and picks up as much of the ticket-splitters vote as does Nixon. Marginal voters, too, are in favor of Wallace. Nixon's support comes from the core Republican voters, about half of the ticket-splitters and 15% of the Democrats. Kennedy is the most popular of the Democratic candidates tested on the MARKET OPINION RESEARCH secret ballots, among the entire sample as well as the Democrats. He trails Wallace among these voters, however, by a nearly two to one margin. Nixon's geographic support falls to Congressional Districts Four, Five, and Seven when Kennedy runs on the same ballot against Wallace. Kennedy is respon- sible for this loss, leading Nixon slightly in District Six. Wallace, as usual, dominates Districts One, Two, Three and Eight, with a particular weakness in District Six. Demographically, Wallace leads in all age groups except the young, 18 - 24 years, which goes largely to Nixon. Kennedy makes his strongest showing among the 35 - 44 age group. In terms of income, normal party voting behavior is obvious, with Nixon carrying the upper income groups ($10,000 and over) substantially. While the white vote is 4 to 3 for Wallace over Nixon, the black vote is heavily in favor of Kennedy over Nixon. Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 26.1 71.6 39.9 15.0 18.9 Kennedy 16.0 4.5 7.9 19.2 21.7 Wallace 34.2 6.0 37.1 36.8 36.1 Undecided 23.7 17.9 15.2 28.9 23.3 Congressional Districts One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 25.5 20.5 9.8 35.9 29.2 35.5 32.8 22.3 Kennedy 9.2 10.2 13.4 12.5 20.8 37.4 12.5 10.7 Wallace 49.0 43.2 42.9 34.4 32.3 7.5 24.2 43.8 Undecided 16.3 26.1 33.9 17.2 17.7 19.6 30.5 23.2 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Demographic Tables Total Nixon Kennedy Wallace Undecided INCOME 0 - $4,999 100% 13.7 21.5 33.5 31.3 $5,000 - $9,999 100% 24.2 16.8 39.5 19.5 $10,000 - $14,999 100% 41.2 7.8 30.4 20.6 $15,000 and over 100% 55.7 8.6 21.4 14.3 AGE 18 - 24 years 100% 37.7 21.3 27.9 13.1 25 34 years 100% 29.1 19.9 35.5 15.6 35 - 44 years 100% 26.8 22.8 31.7 18.7 45 - 54 years 100% 25.2 14.7 32.9 27.3 55 - 64 years 100% 20.4 11.7 34.6 33.3 65 and over 100% 24.6 12.0 37.1 26.3 RACE White 100% 29.9 6.1 42.6 21.4 Black 100% 10.4 55.2 .6 33.7 5. Remaining Presidential Ballots When Nixon faces Muskie, Humphrey, and Kennedy individually on separate ballots, he polls between 43% and 47% of the ballots. The most votes received by one of these three Democrats is Kennedy's 20.9%, the least being Muskie's 17.3%. In each case, however, a substantial portion of the voters remain at this time undecided. Nixon runs very heavily among behavioral Republicans and ticket-splitters against each Democratic candidate. In addition, among the Democrats, he polls more votes than the Democratic candidate. A comparison of the three Democratic candidates indicates that Kennedy is by a very slight MARKET OPINION RESEARCH margin the most acceptable of the three. Geographically, Nixon leads in all Congressional Districts but exhibits particular strength in Districts One, Four, and Six. The Democratic candidates are notably strong also in District Six, which along with the previous data on Wallace support indicates that this area is closest to the normal bi-party voting behavior observed in the rest of the U.S. District Two is particularly high in its undecided sentiment, indicating a reluctance on the part of Wallace supporters to vote for either of the major parties' candidates. Demographically, Nixon leads Muskie, Humphrey, and Kennedy in all age and income groups, though the President runs strongest among the young (18-34) voters and the upper income voters ($10,000 and above). Whites vote predominantly Nixon, while the Democratic candidates gather most of the black vote, particularly in the case of Kennedy. Type of Voter Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 42.5 76.1 63.5 29.2 37.2 Muskie 17.3 -- 6.2 25.0 18.3 Undecided 40.2 23.9 30.3 45.8 44.4 Nixon 46.7 82.1 65.7 33.2 43.3 Humphrey 18.1 3.0 6.7 25.8 18.9 Undecided 35.2 14.9 27.5 41.1 37.8 Nixon 43.5 80.6 62.4 32.1 35.0 Kennedy 20.9 4.5 10.1 26.6 25.6 Undecided 35.7 14.9 27.5 41.3 39.4 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Congressional Districts One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Nixon 48.0 38.6 30.4 50.0 52.1 47.7 41.4 36.6 Muskie 17.3 9.1 25.0 18.8 13.5 21.5 13.3 18.8 Undecided 34.7 52.3 44.6 31.3 34.4 30.8 45.3 44.6 Nixon 52.0 45.5 41.1 56.3 47.9 45.8 47.7 42.0 Humphrey 14.3 9.1 17.0 20.3 20.8 31.8 14.8 17.0 Undecided 33.7 45.5 42.0 23.4 31.3 22.4 37.5 41.1 Nixon 52.0 33.0 33.0 51.6 47.9 42.1 46.9 43.8 Kennedy 12.2 13.6 25.9 15.6 24.0 40.2 16.4 16.1 Undecided 35.7 53.4 41.1 32.8 28.1 17.8 36.7 40.2 Demographic Tables Mus- Hum- Total Nixon kie Und. Nixon phrey Und. Nixon Kennedy Und. INCOME 0 - $4,999 100% 31.3 18.0 50.7 32.0 26.4 41.5 29.2 27.8 43.0 $5,000 - $9,999 100% 42.2 20.3 37.5 47.3 16.8 35.9 42.6 23.0 34.4 $10,000 - $14,999 100% 57.8 14.7 27.5 67.6 8.8 23.5 63.7 7.8 28.4 $15,000 and over 100% 65.7 15.7 18.6 71.4 14.3 14.3 70.0 15.7 14.3 AGE 18 - 24 years 100% 54.1 19.7 26.2 63.9 14.8 21.3 55.7 21.3 23.0 25 - 34 years 100% 48.2 22.0 29.8 58.9 14.9 26.2 48.2 27.7 24.1 35 - 44 years 100% 47.2 15.4 37.4 44.7 23.6 31.7 42.3 26.0 31.7 45 - 54 years 100% 38.5 20.3 41.3 44.1 16.1 39.9 44.1 18.2 37.8 55 - 64 years 100% 31.5 16.0 52.5 34.6 19.1 46.3 33.3 20.4 46.3 65 and over 100% 43.7 13.2 43.1 44.9 19.8 35.3 44.9 15.0 40.1 RACE White 100% 46.4 14.3 39.3 53.5 10.2 36.3 51.7 11.3 36.9 Black 100% 25.8 29.4 44.8 19.0 49.7 31.3 9.8 58.9 31.3 - 26 - ALABAMA Districts Established August 26, 1965 Map of Congressional Districts, Counties, and Selected Cities (8 Districts) LAUDERDALE FLORENCE LIMESTONE MADISON JACKSON COLBERT 8 HUNTSVILLE LAWRENCE DECATUR FRANKLIN MORGAN DE KALS MARSHALL WINSTON CHEROKEE MARION CULLMAN 7 ETOWAH . BLOUNT GADSDEN LAMAR WALKER CALHOUN FAYETTE ST.CLAIR ANNISTON CLEBURNE 6 JEFFERSON 0 BIRMINGHAM 0 TALLADEGA BESSEMER TUSCALOOSA CLAY RANDOLPH PICKENS SHELBY TUSCALOOSA B:88 5 COOSA CHAMBERS GREENE CHILTON TALLAPOOSA HALE PERRY ELMORE LEE SUMTER AUTAUGA SELMA MACON PHENIX CITY * DALLAS RUSSELL MARENGO MONTGOMERY MONTGOMERY LOWNDES BULLOCK CHOCTAW 3 WILCOX BARBOUR PIKE BUTLER CRENSHAW CLARKE 1 2 MONROE MEMRY CONECUM WASHINGTON DALE COFFEE COVINGTON DOTHAN HOUSTON ESCAMBIA GENEVA MOBILE PRICHARD BALDWIN MOBILE County with two or more Congressional Districts MARKET OPINION RESEARCH AWARENESS AND PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL FIGURES President Nixon President Nixon's current approval in Alabama is 61.5%. His appeal ratings generally follow the normal patterns for a Republican with two exceptions: (1) the President's approval among ticket-splitters and core Democrats is unusually high; and (2) his approval is strongest among the very. young (18-24) and older (45 and above) voters. The results are an interesting contrast to the secret ballot data, in which Nixon runs second to Wallace. Apparently voters like Nixon, but they like Wallace more. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nixon is handling his job as President? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Approve 61.5 94.0 66.3 54.5 67.2 58.7 62.7 59.1 73.3 63.8 53.4 Disapprove 26.6 1.5 24.2 32.9 26.2 27.3 26.1 27.6 20.3 25.3 30.1 Don't know 11.9 4.5 9.6 12.6 6.6 14.0 11.2 13.3 6.4 10.8 16.6 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Of those respondents who approve of President Nixon, 48.9% feel he is "doing his best." Twenty percent (20.4%) indicate that Nixon is the "best man we've had in a long time;" and almost as many (18.4%) think he is "trying to bring the boys home." Why do you approve of the way Nixon is handling his job as President?* (61.5% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Doing his best 48.9% 49.2% 50.0% 52.7% 41.5% 46.5% 51.0% 63.3% 46.8% 52.0% 35.6% Best we've had in a long time/ Better than Johnson 20.4 12.7 21.2 21.3 17.1 19.4 21.6 20.1 21.4 16.5 37.9 Trying to bring the boys home 18.4 17.5 16.9 17.9 24.4 25.2 14.2 18.8 22.2 19.5 12.6 Needs more cooperation/ Hands tied/ More help from Congress 10.3 7.9 13.6 9.2 7.3 9.0 11.5 11.3 11.1 12.3 1.1 Inherited problems/ Walked into a mess 8.3 7.9 10.2 4.8 19.5 9.0 5.1 6.3 11.9 9.6 2.3 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. Reasons for disapproval of President Nixon center around the fact that the Vietnam War still continues (27.6%) and that Nixon's integrity may be questionable ("doesn't keep his promises"/"two faced"/"not honest") (33.7%). MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Surprisingly, 20.1% indicate they disapprove since Nixon "is not working hard enough." Only 11.2% mention the school bussing situation as a source of disapproval. And even fewer (5.6%) mention inflation as a reason for not approving. Why do you disapprove of the way Nixon is handling his job as President?* (26.6% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Still send- ing troops to Vietnam/ Vietnam War still not ended 27.6% 100.0% 41.9% 24.8% 31.3% 33.3% 24.4% 25.2% 40.0% 26.7% 32.7% Doesn't keep promises/ two-faced/ Not honest 33.7 -- 30.2 35.2 43.8 27.8 36.6 33.6 14.0 35.4 28.6 Could work harder/Not active enough 20.1 -- 18.6 20.8 37.5 19.4 18.7 23.5 11.4 16.1 34.7 Promised no bussing/ School situation 11.2 100.0 14.0 9.6 12.5 12.5 10.6 10.1 17.1 14.3 2.0 Inflation situation 5.6 -- 4.7 4.8 -- 8.3 5.0 6.0 8.6 5.0 8.2 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. When asked about President Nixon's effect on the Federal government's attitude and actions toward Alabama, 45.8% indicate they see no change. Those seeing improvement (31.9%) outnumber those seeing deterioration MARKET OPINION RESEARCH (13.4%) by a significant margin. Young people, upper income households, and whites tend to be most positive in their outlook. How do you think that the Federal government's attitude and actions toward Alabama have changed since President Nixon took office? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Improved 31.9 46.3 36.5 28.2 34.4 28.4 34.1 29.3 40.1. 31.4 34.4 Gotten worse 13.4 3.0 14.6 15.3 6.6 15.9 12.7 14.4 7.0 14.2 9.8 Not changed 45.8 43.3 42.1 48.2 54.1 48.9 42.8 45.6 48.3 46.4 43.6 Don't know 8.8 7.5 6.7 8.4 4.9 6.8 10.4 10.7 4.6 8.0 12.3 Respondents were also asked how various key issues had changed since President Nixon took office. On economic issues (inflation, taxes, and unemployment) people generally see a worsening of problems since Nixon began his term of office. Nearly eighty percent (79.3%) feel inflation has gotten worse, while 50.9% indicate unemployment and 40.1% cite taxes as worsening. On environmental issues, 41.4% see air and water pollution as worsening, but almost as many (40.6%) see no change since Nixon's term began. Crime is generally perceived as having worsened (60.4%) under Nixon's Presidency, as has the drug problem (78.5%). Student unrest is not so generally seen as having worsened since Nixon took office (41.7%). MARKET OPINION RESEARCH General moral deterioration is viewed as having occurred under Nixon by almost half of the persons (46.8%), but almost as many see no change. The handling of the war is a benefit to the perceptions of the President: Vietnam is seen as having improved under Nixon's Presidency (42.7%) or stayed the same (28.2%). Racial problems in general, are seen about equally as having improved, worsened, and stayed the same, indicating definite groups of opinions on the issue. However, integration of schools is seen as having worsened (40.9%); this is tempered by a large group (37.9%) feeling things are about the same. Last, people generally see Nixon as being personally in favor of moving about as fast as the government now in desegregating public schools, those saying he is in favor of moving faster equalling the number saying slower. Since President Nixon became President, have become better or worse? About Don't Better Worse The Same Know Vietnam 42.7% 26.3% 28.2% 2.7% Racial problems 28.8 32.0 37.0 2.1 Youth/Student unrest 21.5 41.7 34.3 2.5 School integration 19.4 40.9 37.9 1.9 Air/Water pollution 15.5 41.4 40.6 2.5 Unemployment 14.0 50.9 33.0 2.0 Taxes 10.1 40.1 48.4 1.4 Crime 7.8 60.4 30.8 1.0 General moral deterioration 7.3 46.8 43.2 2.6 Drugs 5.3 78.5 14.4 1.7 Inflation 3.7 79.3 15.3 1.7 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you think President Nixon is personally in favor of moving faster, slower, or the same speed as the government now in desegregating the public schools? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Faster 21.5 11.9 21.9 25.3 26.2 20.1 22.0 22.0 17.4 24.1 11.7 Slower 23.0 43.3 20.2 22.1 18.0 21.6 24.6 20.9 33.1 23.1 23.3 Same speed 36.9 26.9 37.6 34.7 42.6 36.0 36.0 37.4 35.5 34.7 44.8 Don't know 18.6 17.9 20.2 17.9 13.1 22.3 17.4 19.7 14.0 18.1 20.2 Vice President Agnew Contrary to trends observed elsewhere in the nation, approval of Vice President Agnew is higher (45.6%) than disapproval (26.8%). Agnew finds his greatest approval among core Republicans (68.7%), ticket-splitters (56.7%), younger persons (18-34), middle and upper income households ($10,000 and over), and among whites more than blacks (49.2%, 31.3%). Do you approve or disapprove of the way Vice President Agnew is handling his job as Vice President? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Approve 45.6 68.7 56.7 37.1 50.8 47.0 44.1 40.7 61.6 49.2 31.3 Disapprove 26.8 13.4 20.8 33.2 31.1 23.1 28.8 28.7 24.4 25.9 31.3 Don't know 27.6 17.9 22.5 29.7 18.0 29.9 27.1 30.6 14.0 24.8 37.4 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Approval of Agnew is justified most frequently with the remarks "he says what he thinks," "he speaks out" (49.3%) and "he's doing a good job," "he works hard" (28.6%). Why do you approve of the way Vice President Agnew is handling his job as Vice President?* (45.6% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Says what he thinks/ Speaks out 49.3% 47.8% 56.4% 49.6% 54.8% 54.8% 44.7% 44.5% 60.5% 52.7% 27.5% Doing a good job/Works hard 28.6 30.4 25.7 29.1 22.6 22.6 33.6 32.7 19.8 26.2 43.1 Puts media in their place 6.5 6.5 11.9 3.5 9.7 9.7 4.3 5.5 7.5 7.7 -- Like the man/ Admire him 6.0 13.0 5.9 6.4 3.2 8.1 5.3 5.9 8.5 6.1 5.9 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. Disapproval of the way Agnew is handling his job of Vice President centers about his being overly opinionated and talking too much (36.6%). Also frequently mentioned are reasons pertaining to his lack of accomplishments (30.5%) as Vice President. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Why do you disapprove of the way Vice President Agnew is handling his job as Vice President?* (28.6% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Too opinion- ated/Talks too much 36.6% 33.3% 45.9% 37.3% 21.1% 39.3% 37.5% 31.6% 50.0% 35.8% 39.2% Hasn't done much 19.9 11.1 16.2 19.0 31.6 19.7 18.4 20.6 16.7 17.0 29.4 Don't like him 11.6 11.1 13.5 8.7 15.8 8.2 12.5 11.0 16.7 15.2 Not on the job 10.6 22.2 13.5 11.9 5.3 9.8 11.8 13.5 -- 10.3 11.8 Leaves a bad image/He's a show-off 6.5 - - 13.5 4.0 5.3 8.2 5.9 6.5 9.5 7.3 3.9 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. In keeping with their general approval of Vice President Agnew, Alabama residents feel Nixon should keep Agnew as his running mate in the next Presidential election (40.1% of respondents say Nixon should, 29.2% say Nixon should not). Do you think President Nixon should or should not keep Vice President Agnew as his running mate next year? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Should 40.1 49.3 46.6 38.4 47.5 42.4 37.9 36.8 52.9 42.3 31.9 Should not 29.2 19.4 25.8 34 ? 31.1 29.2 29.2 30.2 29.1 29.1 30.1 Don't know 30.7 31.3 27.5 27.4 21. } 28.4 32.7 33.0 18.0 28.6 38.0 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Governor Wallace Approval of the manner in which Governor Wallace has handled his job is high, with 59.8% approving and 31.9% disapproving. Approval of the Governor is significantly higher among ticket-splitters, behavioral Democrats, and marginal voters, among the older voters (55 and over), among the lower income groups (below $10,000), among whites, and among Congressional Districts One, Two, Three, Five and Eight. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Wallace is handling his job as Governor? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Approve 59.8 38.8 66.3 60.0 67.2 53.0 63.7 61.1 53.5 64.5 41.1 Disapprove 31.9 56.7 26.4 29.5 29.5 36.4 29.7 30.6 38.9 27.7 48.5 Don't know 8.3 4.5 7.3 10.5 3.3 9.6 7.6 8.3 7.6 7.9 10.4 Those approving of Wallace most often cite the general reason, "he's doing a good job" (41.6%). Also mentioned are "he's doing the right thing for people" (13.1%), "he stands up for Alabama" (11.2%) and "he's a fine person" (11.2%). Ten percent (10.2%) of the approvals cite Wallace is improving the school situation. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Why do you approve of the way Governor Wallace is handling his job as Governor?* (59.8% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Doing a good job 41.6% 15.4% 36.4% 46.5% 14.6% 36.4% 72.4% 44.8% 31.5% 40.7% 49.3% Helping poor/ Old people/ Doing right thing for the people 13.1 42.3 9.3 11.8 17.1 14.3 18.5 12.7 14.1 12.4 14.9 Understands Alabama's problems/ Stands up for Alabama 11.2 3.8 13.6 10.5 24.4 7.1 16.8 10.9 15.2 11.7 4.5 Fine person/ Good man 11.2 11.5 11.0 9.6 12.2 9.3 17.9 11.8 8.7 12.9 1.5 Helping school situation better/ Special schools 10.2 11.5 8.5 11.4 9.8 12.1 13.8 12.4 5.4 11.2 4.5 Not afraid to make decisions/ Speaks out 7.5 11.5 8.5 7.0 12.2 10.0 8.8 7.3 7.6 8.3 3.0 Promotes highway Con- struction 5.8 7.7 5.1 7.0 7.3 5.0 8.8 6.1 7.6 6.1 4.5 Good governor 5.4 3.8 2.5 4.8 7.3 5.7 7.7 5.8 5.4 3.9 14.9 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. Disapprovals of Wallace indicate some feeling that he has not kept promises (21.0%), that he has done little (13.2%), and that he is overly publicity MARKET OPINION RESEARCH minded (17.1%). Nine percent (9.3%) indicate he treats blacks poorly, and this feeling is expected concentrated among Alabama blacks. Why do you disapprove of the way Governor Wallace is handling his job as Governor?* (31.9% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Hasn't kept his 8 promises 21.0% 28.9% 12.8% 24.1% 11.1% 24.0% 20.7% 23.6% 14.9% 23.9% 15.2% Too publicity minded 17.1 31.6 29.8 11.6 33.3 17.7 15.0 13.3 28.4 22.7 5.1 Does nothing 13.2 10.5 14.9 10.7 27.8 13.5 11.4 11.5 16.4 13.1 13.9 Don't like him 12.1 10.5 12.8 15.2 5.6 11.5 12.1 10.9 11.9 11.9 10.1 Against Negroes/ mistreats colored 9.3 5.3 4.3 7.1 16.7 6.3 10.7 13.9 -- 0.6 29.1 Holding education back/ dipping into teachers' retirement 8.9 10.5 6.4 2.7 5.6 3.1 13.6 9.7 6.0 7.4 12.7 Too many taxes 8.9 7.9 4.3 9.8 5.6 7.3 10.7 10.3 7.5 9.1 8.9 When asked whether they felt Governor Wallace should run for President in the 1972 Presidential election, it is surprising thata significant majority indicated he should not (56.6%). This feeling is most pronounced among behavioral Republicans, among residents of Congressional Districts Six, MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Five, and Seven, among younger and middle age voters (18-54), among upper income households ($10,000 and above) and among blacks. Do you think that Governor Wallace should or should not run for President in the 1972 Presidential election? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Should 32.0 19.4 33.1 32.1 32.8 33.0 31.5 35.2 25.6 37.9 9.2 Should not 56.6 74.5 55.6 57.9 63.9 58.3 54.7 53.3 65.7 51.4 76.7 Don't know 11.3 6.0 11.2 10.0 3.3 8.7 13.8 11.5 8.7 10.7 14.1 Of those persons expressing opinions that Wallace should run for President, a significant margin indicate he should do so as a Democrat (44.6%) rather than the candidate of the American Independent Party (36.0%). Support for Wallace's running as a Democrat comes from voters in the 25 and above group, voters in the under $15,000 income group, and white voters. Do you think Governor Wallace should run as a Democrat or as a candidate of the American Independent Party? (36.0% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Democrat 44.6% 30.8% 39.0% 54.1% 20.0% 44.8% 47.7% 45.3% 40.9% 45.6% 26.7% American Independent Party 36.0 38.5 45.8 30.3 70.0 40.2 29.5 34.2 45.5 36.5 26.7 Don't know 19.4 30.8 15.3 15.6 10.0 14.9 22.8 20.5 13.6 17.8 46.7 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH On the issue of public school desegregation, a preponderance of Alabama residents view Wallace as being in favor of moving slower than the Federal government's pace (65.1%). Persons in Alabama most often see Governor Wallace having done his best job in the area of educational development (36.9%). Road improvement is mentioned next most often as Wallace's best job (16.4%), followed by medical facilities (9.3%) and more industry (8.9%). Areas in which Governor Wallace has done his poorest jobs are much less frequently mentioned. Beyond the mention that Wallace has done nothing (18.3%), people cite raised taxes (7.8%), public school desegregation (6.6%), education/poor textbooks (5.5%), race relations (5.5%), and county roads/highways (6.2%). Apparently, there are mixed feelings as to whether Wallace's efforts in road building and education have been of value. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH In what areas do you think Governor Wallace has done his best job?* Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% -100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Education/ Teacher's salaries/ Free books/ Trade schools 36.9 23.8 41.0 40.5 47.6 37.9 35.1 38.0 34.3 42.1 17.8 Road improvement/ Bond* issue 16.4 13.4 15.7 16.6 18.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.2 17.2 Mental health/ Hospitals/ Medical center 9.3 10.4 7.9 11.6 8.2 9.5 9.5 8.7 11.0 9.7 7.4 More jobs/ more industries 8.9 10.4 11.2 8.4 11.5 9.5 8.3 9.1 11.6 9.4 6.7 Nothing done 7.6 9.0 6.2 6.1 8.2 12.5 4.9 8.5 6.4 5.5 16.0 Done a good job in all areas 5.1 3.0 3.4 6.3 -- 2.0 7.0 6.3 1.2 5.2 4.9 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH In what areas do you think Governor Wallace has done his poorest job?* Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% -100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Not anything 18.3 17.9 17.4 18.9 9.8 13.3 22.2 19.6 11.0 21.4 6.7 Taxes increased 7.8 16.4 8.4 4.7 13.1 9.5 6.4 7.6 7.6 8.2 6.7 Desegregation of schools 6.6 4.5 6.7 6.8 4.9 9.5 5.3 7.2 6.4 5.7 10.4 Highway issue/ County roads 6.2 6.0 6.7 7.4 8.2 8.0 4.4 5.7 7.6 6.9 2.5 Race relations 5.5 6.0 3.9 6.1 3.3 5.3 5.9 6.5 5.2 3.6 12.9 Education/ Poor textbooks 5.5 4.5 7.3 5.0 6.6 6.4 4.9 4.4 8.1 4.2 10.4 *Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. As in the Presidential perceptions, persons were asked how several problem areas had changed (improved, worsened, or stayed the same) since the individual began his term of office. With the exception of the Vietnam War and racial problems, people generally view these areas as being the same or having worsened since Wallace took office as Governor. From the data, it is not clear how much responsibility is imputed to Governor Wallace. It is noteworthy that the relatively most optimistic group of persons are (1) the group of younger persons (18-24) except for the pollution issue; (2) the group of Congressional District Five residents; (3) the middle and high income households ($10,000-$15,000; $15,000 and above), depending on the issue. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Since Wallace became Governor, have the following areas gotten better or worse? About the Don't Better Worse Same Know Taxes 6.7% 34.7% 56.6% 2.0% Inflation/Cost of living 3.1 66.3 28.6 2.0 Unemployment 15.5 33.9 47.6 3.0 Air/Water pollution 13.9 31.6 51.7 2.9 Crime 12.2 40.2 45.1 2.5 Drugs 8.6 54.5 34.7 2.2 Youth/Student unrest 18.4 24.7 53.9 3.0 General moral deterioration 8.7 32.8 54.9 3.6 Vietnam 26.3 17.3 53.3 3.1 Racial problems 23.6 22.6 51.4 2.4 School integration 15.9 29.9 51.2 3.0 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH ANALYSIS OF ISSUES National Issues When asked about the most important issues currently facing the U.S., persons in Alabama cite several groups of problems. The most frequently mentioned problems are those involving civil unrest and turbulence (80.6%): drug addiction, racial problems, crime, student unrest, falling moral standards. Not surprisingly, the Vietnam War is cited next most often (56.1%), followed by domestic economic problems (44.3%) - inflation, unemployment, higher taxes. Also mentioned are the environ- mental pollution (17.1%), education problems (16.6%), political - legal problems (11.0%), and poverty - welfare problems (3.4%). Individual % Group % Vietnam War 56.1 56.1 Drug addiction among young 33.5 Race issue 21.1 Increase in crime 10.6 Youth unrest 7.8 Civil unrest/Violence 5.0 Moral standards 2.6 80.6 Inflation 18.9 Unemployment 9.7 Higher taxes 8.9 Economy 6.8 44.3 Air/Water pollution/Ecology 17.1 17.1 Lack confidence in leadership/In government 4.2 Communism 3.4 Courts/Not enforcing laws 3.4 11.0 Upgrade education/School integration/ Crowded schools 16.6 16.6 Too much welfare 2.0 Poverty 1.4 3.4 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Quite expectedly, the Vietnam War is of most widespread concern to the young (18-24) and least to the older voters (55-64). However, it is also most often mentioned by behavioral Republican voters and voters in the Fifth Congressional District. Drug addiction as a problem is most often mentioned by voters in Congressional District Five, high middle income households ($10,000-$15,000) and the 25-34 age group; not surprisingly, it is not as great a concern to the youngest age group (18-24). Environmental pollution is an important issue, particularly to the young adult (18-24). Inflation and educational problems are most often mentioned by the high middle income ($10,000-$15,000) person. Unemployment is particularly a problem to blacks as opposed to whites. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH What are the most important problems facing our nation at the present time? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Vietnam War/Bring the boys home 56.1 71.6 51.1 54.2 72.1 60.6 52.3 56.3 58.1 57.7 50.3 Drug addiction among young 33.5 32.8 32.0 36.1 23.0 39.8 31.4 35.2 27.3 34.3 31.9 Race issue 21.1 7.5 24.2 22.9 21.3 23.9 19.9 20.9 17.4 21.9 18.4 Inflation 18.9 20.9 18.0 20.5 13.1 18.6 20.1 18.3 26.2 19.7 16.6 Air/Water pollution/Ecology 17.1 20.9 19.7 16.1 36.1 19.3 13.6 14.8 22.7 17.6 14.7 Upgrade education/School integration/ vded schools 16.6 14.9 19.7 16.8 16.4 15.9 17.2 15.6 20.9 17.1 14.7 ase in crime 10.6 16.4 13.5 8.2 9.8 10.2 11.0 11.7 7.0 9.9 12.9 loyment 9.7 9.0 11.2 10.0 8.2 12.5 8.3 9.3 11.6 7.9 17.2 taxes 8.9 13.4 8.4 8.7 6.6 6.4 10.0 8.0 6.4 8.3 10.4 Youth unrest/Hippies 7.8 7.5 10.1 7.1 3.3 6.1 9.3 7.8 9.3 9.3 2.5 Economy 6.8 7.5 6.7 8.4 13.1 9.5 4.7 5.4 9.3 7.4 4.9 Civil unrest/Violence 5.0 4.5 6.2 6.1 1.6 5.3 5.1 3.9 8.7 6.1 .6 Lack of confidence in government/ Lack of leadership 4.2 7.5 2.2 4.7 4.9 4.9 3.8 3.1 7.0 5.0 .6 Communism 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.2 4.9 3.0 3.4 4.1 2.3 3.9 1.2 Courts/Not enforcing laws 3.4 1.5 2.8 3.4 4.9 4.9 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.1 -- Moral standards 2.6 3.0 2.2 2.6 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.1 .6 Too much welfare 2.0 4.5 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.5 3.5 2.0 1.8 Poverty 1.4 -- 1.1 1.6 3.3 1.5 1.1 .9 1.2 .9 2.5 All others/Don't know 24.0 22.4 24.2 22.9 27.9 18.9 25.8 25.6 22.1 22.6 28.8 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH When asked about the single most important problem currently facing the U.S., the Vietnam War is most often mentioned (31.3%), followed by drug addiction among the young (16.4%). Several other issues are bunched far behind: the race issue (6.3%), inflation (5.2%), education (4.5%), pollution (3.1%), unemployment (2.9%), and crime (2.4%). Ratings of Importance of Issues Following the free-response question about national issues, respondents were asked to rate how important they felt several pre-selected issues were. The differences observed between these ratings of issue importance and the issues mentioned to the free-response question (discussed in the previous section) reflect intensity of feeling as opposed to top of the mind awareness. Respondents were asked to rate eleven issues on an eleven point scale, ranging from not important (0) to very important (11). Across the Alabama electorate, the most intensely felt problem appears to be the cost of living and inflation issue (9.1). Next is the drug problem (8.9), followed by crime (8.7) and the Vietnam War (8.7), racial problems (8.3), school integration, taxes and unemployment (all with 8.0), general moral deterioration (7.9), student unrest (7.8), and air/water pollution (7.7). Differences of .2 in ratings are statistically significant. Compared to the total electorate, core Republicans are significantly.more concerned with high taxes, and less concerned with unemployment, Vietnam, racial problems, inflation and integration. Ticket-splitters are signif- icantly more concerned with crime and environmental pollution than the electorate as a whole. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Democrats are significantly more concerned with the school integration issue. Marginal voters are more concerned about unemployment, racial problems, and school integration, and less with taxes, pollution, drugs and moral deterioration. Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marginal Cost of living/Inflation 9.1 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.1 Drugs 8.9 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 Crime 8.7 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.6 Vietnam 8.7 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7 Racial problems 8.3 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 Unemployment 8.0 7.7 8.1 7.9 8.3 Taxes. 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.8 Integration of schools 8.0 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 General moral deterioration 7.9 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.7 Youth/Student unrest 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 Air/Water pollution 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.4 When the data are broken by Congressional District, the issues group geographically in an interesting manner. District One is significantly more. concerned with school integration and racial issues as is District Three. Both tend to be less concerned with unemployment, crime, drugs and District Three also less concerned with taxes, pollution, and Vietnam. This suggests residents of these two areas have narrow perspectives aside from their immediate daily ones of racial tension. District Two is signif- icantly more concerned with youth and student unrest, and less concerned with unemployment and inflation. District Four is more concerned about pollution and less with most other problems: taxes, student unrest, Vietnam, racial problems, school integration, and moral deterioration. The Fifth District expresses significantly more concern with pollution, drugs, moral MARKET OPINION RESEARCH deterioration and Vietnam. It is less concerned with high taxes, unemployment, and crime. District Six expresses more concern with taxes, unemployment, crime, drugs and racial problems, significantly less concern with student unrest, Vietnam, and general moral deterioration. The Seventh District is most concerned with unemployment, pollution, crime, and moral deterioration; it is less concerned with racial problems, school integration, and inflation. Last, District Eight is most concerned with taxes, unemployment, crime, drugs, Vietnam, and moral decay, and less concerned with school integration and inflation. Congressional District One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Cost of living/Inflation 9.2 8.9 9.2 8.9 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.9 Drugs 8.3 8.9 8.2 9.0 9.5 9.1 9.0 9.1 Crime 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.6 8.5 9.1 8.9 9.0 Vietnam 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.9 8.4 8.7 9.0 Racial problems 8.7 8.0 8.7 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.0 8.3 Unemployment 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.6 8.6 8.2 8.6 Taxes 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.8 6.9 8.5 8.0 8.4 Integration of schools 8.8 8.1 8.7 7.3 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.6 General moral deterioration 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.4 8.1 7.3 8.1 8.4 Youth/Student unrest 7.8 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.8 Air/Water pollution 7.7 7.2 6.9 8.3 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.6 In terms of age, the 18-24 bracket is significantly more concerned with pollution and less concerned with the economic issues (taxes, unemployment, inflation), crime, drugs, civil unrest and moral decay, compared to the total sample. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH The 25-34 group is more concerned with the economic issues, pollution and drugs, and less concerned with-moral decay and racial problems. The 35-44 group is highly concerned with all issues, but significantly more with school integration, moral decay and the economic issues. The 45-54 group is higher on unemployment and moral decay and low on inflation and integration. Persons 55-64 are more concerned with the drug problem and less with the economic issues, pollution, and Vietnam. And the oldest age group (65+) is more concerned with racial problems and less concerned with the economic issues and drugs. Low income households (under $5,000) are more concerned with racial and integration issues and less with taxes and pollution. Low to middle income ($5,000-$10,000) persons are more concerned with unemployment and pollution; less with moral decay. Middle to high ($10,000-$15,000) income persons are more concerned with pollution and moral decay; less with integration. And high income ($15,000+) persons are low on almost all issues. Compared to whites, black persons are more concerned with economic, racial and school integration issues and less concerned with pollution, crime, drugs, civil unrest, moral decay, and Vietnam. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Over half (55.3%) of the respondents polled indicate they feel the U.S. is worse off than two to three years ago, and only one person in four says things are better off. This pessimism is found most often, among behavioral Democrats and Seventh District residents, while optimism is relatively more preponderant among Republicans, Sixth District residents and blacks. Overall, do you think that the U.S. as a nation is better off or worse off than it was two or three years ago? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Better off 23.1 46.3 22.5 16.8 27.9 24.2 22.2 23.1 24.4 19.0 39.3 Worse off 55.3 31.3 49.4 62.6 52.5 56.8 55.1 57.2 51.2 58.5 42.9 About the same 17.3 14.9 21.9 17.4 18.0 16.3 17.2 15.0 22.7 18.1 13.5 Don't know 4.3 7.5 6.2 3.2 1.6 2.7 5.5 4.6 1.7 4.4 4.3 Reasons most often cited for the U.S. being worse of today are: the continued Vietnam War (22.9%), the rising cost of living (22.5%), the drug problem (19.6%), unemployment (13.9%), crime increase (11.7%), low confidence in government (8.1%), the integration/racial issue (7.9%), as well as several others. In general, these reasons follow closely Alabama voter's perceptions of problems in the U.S. discussed previously. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Why do you say that the U.S. is worse off than two/three years ago? (55.3% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black Vietnam/Still sending troops to Vietnam 22.9% 23.8% 14.8% 24.4% 31.3% 22.0% 22.3% 23.0% 20.5% 20.4% 34.3% Cost of living 22.5 28.6 22.7 23.9 12.5 18.0 26.5 22.7 25.0 23.1 20.0 Drugs 19.6 14.3 19.3 20.6 31.3 19.3 17.7 22.0 13.6 18.3 27.1 Unemployment 13.9 42.9 10.2 15.5 12.5 16.0 13.1 12.6 22.7 13.4 17.1 Crime increase 11.7 9.5 19.3 8.8 12.5 9.3 13.1 12.6 8.0 11.3 12.9 No faith in government/ Corrupt officials 8.1 -- 8.0 9.7 6.3 11.3 6.5 8.1 10.2 7.8 8.6 Forced inte- gration/ Race issue 7.9 9.5 5.7 6.3 6.3 4.7 10.0 9.4 4.5 9.1 1.4 Low morals 4.7 4.8 9.1 3.8 9.4 6.0 3.1 2.9 11.3 5.4 1.4 No law and order/ Criminals going free/ Court decisions 4.0 -- 1.1 5.0 6.3 3.3 4.2 3.9 5.7 4.6 1.4 Riots 2.7 -- 1.1 2.5 -- 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.3 2.7 2.9 Air/Water pollution 2.5 -- 3.4 2.1 6.3 3.3 1.5 2.3 3.4 2.4 1.4 Unrest among the people 1.3 -- 2.3 1.7 -- 2.7 .8 1.3 2.3 1.6 -- All others/ Don't know 18.6 28.6 20.5 16.8 25.0 23.3 15.4 16.5 20.5 19.9 12.8 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH The U.S. is better off today in the eyes of some because the war is coming to an end (23.1%), because we are aware and trying to solve our problems (22.6%), because wages are higher and more money is available to spend (16.1%) and because of an improved racial situation (12.9%). Several other reasons are also.cited. Why do you say that the U.S. is better off than two/three years ago? (23.1% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black War coming to an end 23.1% 25.8% 22.5% 18.8% 17.6% 23.4% 23.8% 23.2% 26.2% 27.3% 14.1% Aware of problems/ trying to solve our problems 22.6 41.9 40.0 7.8 29.4 31.3 16.2 15.2 40.5 29.8 9.4 Higher wages/ More money to spend 16.1 19.4 10.0 21.9 -- 10.9 21.9 17.6 16.7 13.2 21.9 Desegregation in schools/ Race situation 12.9 3.2 15.0 14.1 17.6 17.2 9.5 11.2 9.5 9.9 18.8 More jobs for blacks/ More jobs 7.5 -- 5.0 12.5 -- 6.3 9.5 11.2 -- 3.3 15.6 Nixon doing a good job/ Republican President 7.0 9.7 10.0 9.4 -- 7.8 7.6 5.6 9.5 10.7 -- Fewer riots 3.2 3.2 2.5 1.6 17.6 1.6 1.9 2.4 7.1 4.1 1.6 All others/ Don't know 25.3 19.4 20.0 28.2 29.4 26.6 23.8 28.0 23.8 23.2 29.7 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Turning to attitudes on specific national issues, 78.1% of the respondents indicate they favor the Federal government passing and enforcing stricter anti-pollution laws, while only 12.3% are against such Federal action. Support for this is highest among Districts One, Three, and Six, and among the younger age groups (18-44). Income and race differences are insignificant. When reminded that such laws might mean loss of jobs, support for the issue drops significantly (57.2%), but the favorable. voters still outweigh the unfavorable voters by a significant margin. District Four is most supporting, while One, Two and Six the least in favor. Support is also high among the young middle age person (25 to 34), and high among the high medium income household ($10,000-$15,000). Are you in favor of the Federal government passing more anti-pollution laws? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-34 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% In favor 78.1 79.1 78.1 77.9 90.2 86.7 51.5 79.1 77.9 77.8 80.4 Not in favor 12.3 17.9 14.0 13.4 8.2 8.3 14.2 9.6 18.0 13.2 7.4 Don't know 9.6 3.0 7.9 8.7 1.6 4.9 13.1 11.3 4.1 9.0 12.3 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Are you in favor of the Federal government passing stricter anti-pollution laws, even though it may mean the loss of some jobs? (78.1% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-34 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% In favor 57.2 54.7 63.3 57.1 60.0 62.9 53.1 52.0 65.7 63.0 34.4 Not in favor 33.7 35.8 27.3 36.1 32.7 31.0 35.6 38.4 25.4 28.1 55.7 Don't, know 9.1 9.4 9.4 6.8 7.3 6.1 11.4 9.6 8.9 8.9 9.9 State Issues People in Alabama most often cite school and related educational problems (funding, quality of education) as the most important problem currently facing the State of Alabama (27.2%). The drug problem is next most often mentioned (21.4%), followed by the racial integration problem (17.3%). Economic issues (high taxes, inflation, unemployment) follow these two problems with about one person in six mentioning them. Environmental pollution is noted as a problem by 10.1% of the sample, followed by poor governmental leadership (9.3%), crime (6.5%), highway construction (6.0%), state financial issues (5.8%), excess welfare (2.7%) and law enforcement (1.2%). What kinds of people feel which problems are most important? The educational and school problems are mentioned slightly more often by MARKET OPINION RESEARCH core Republicans, and more often by residents of the Fourth and Fifth Congressional Districts, by the middle and high middle income households ($5,000-$15,000), and by whites. Drugs are seen as a problem most often by core Democrats, residents of District Five, lower income persons (under $10,000) and blacks. The integration issue is big to the ticket- splitters and residents of District One. High taxes are noted often by Republicans, residents of Districts Six and Seven, middle and high middle income households ($5,000-$15,000), and blacks. Inflation follows a similar pattern except that few Republicans mention it. Unemployment is felt by the young (18-24), blacks, and the middle income groups ($5,000-$10,000); District Eight appears to be hard-hit with unemployment. Environmental pollution is most an issue among the young (18-24), District Five, and the upper income groups ($15,000 and over). The issue of poor governmental leadership is strongest among the young (18-24) and blacks. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH What do you think are the most important problems facing the State of Alabama at the present time? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-44 45 $10,000 10,000 White Black School problems/Money for schools/Quality education 27.2 32.8 27.5 28.2 24.6 31.4 25.4 23.3 39.5 29.1 20.2 Drugs 21.4 16.4 22.5 22.4 18.0 22.0 21.0 23.3 15.1 20.1 27.0 Integration/Bussing/Should ave freedom of choice 17.3 11.9 22.5 15.5 14.8 18.2 17.4 18.5 14.5 18.7 12.3 h taxes 16.4 22.4 18.5 15.0 6.6 17.0 16.7 15.0 17.4 16.4 14.7 employment/Need new industries 15.7 16.4 10.1 16.8 19.7 14.0 16.1 16.9 13.4 13.2 25.2 nacial problems 11.8 6.0 11.8 12.6 9.8 14.0 11.0 12.6 9.9 12.1 11.0 Inflation/High prices 11.4 4.5 12.4 14.2 11.5 9.5 12.7 13.5 9.9 10.1 17.2 Air/Water pollution/Ecology 10.1 9.0 9.0 10.3 19.7 10.2 8.9 10.4 10.5 10.1 9.2 Poor leadership/Political issues/Legislature 9.3 19.4 8.4 7.9 16.4 9.1 8.5 7.8 15.7 10.7 4.3 Crime/Increase of crime 6.5 10.4 8.4 6.1 8.2 5.3 7.0 7.2 5.8 6.4 6.7 Highways/Road improvements 6.0 1.5 2.8 7.9 6.6 4.9 6.4 6.5 5.8 6.9 2.5 Finances/Over-spending/Waste of money 5.8 6.0 7.9 6.6 1.6 4.9 6.6 5.2 8.1 6.1 4.3 Too much welfare 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.4 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.9 4.7 2.7 1.8 Law enforcement/Law and order 1.2 -- 2.8 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 -- All others/Don't know 24.0 19.4 17.4 23.1 32.8 19.3 25.8 24.6 19.8 3.9 9.2 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH When asked about the single most important problem currently facing Alabama, the issues are ranked in roughly the same order of importance as those just discussed. School problems are by a significant margin seen to be the most important (18.1%), followed by the school integration issues (12.0%), and the drug problem (11.4%). The economic issues of unemployment, high taxes, and inflation are mentioned as the most important problem facing Alabama by about six percent of the respondents. Racial problems and poor governmental administration are close behind; the environmental issue follows but is surprisingly low when viewed as a problem facing the State. On the issue of whether the State of Alabama is better or worse off than two years ago; about equal numbers of persons indicate it is better off (33.4%) and worse off (32.4%). Slightly fewer (27.2%) say things are about the same. The following types of persons are more likely to say things are better off: all types of voters except core Democrats, residents of Congressional Districts Two, Four, Five, and Six, the youngest and oldest age groups (18-24, and 65 and over), the higher income households ($10,000 and above), and blacks. Behavioral Democrats and residents of Districts One, Three, Seven, and Eight tend to see things most pessimistically, while middle income ($5,000- $15,000), middle age (35-54) white persons tend to view things most neutrally, ie. about the same. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Overall, do you think Alabama as a State is better off or worse off than it was two or three years ago? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under 5,000- Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-34 35-64 65 $5,000 15,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Better off 33.4 35.8 34.3 30.8 40.1 28.3 39.5 34.9 34.8 30.3 45.4 Worse off 32.4 32.8 32.6 33.2 33.2 31.5 33.5 34.2 30.4 33.0 29.4 About the same 27.2 22.4 28.7 28.9 21.3 33.2 19.2 21.8 29.9 29.2 19.6 Don't know 7.0 9.0 4.5 7.1 5.4 7.0 7.8 9.2 4.9 7.4 5.5 Respondents who felt Alabama was better off than two to three years ago cite most often reasons of economic improvement (20.8%) notably more jobs, more industry. They also mention "a better way of life" (16.7%), better schools (13.8%), Wallace as Governor (11.5%), more opportunities for blacks (11.5%), and a better road system (10.0%). Mention of improvement in the economic situation is highest among residents of District Eight, the middle age (35-44) and middle to high income ($10,000-$15,000) group, and whites. A "better way of life" is cited most frequently by behavioral Democrats, residents of District One, and by middle age (35-44) persons. The rationale of school improvements isstrongest among ticket-splitters and Democrats, among residents of District Four, among the 25-34 age group (probably home-building families) and among middle to high income ($10,000-$15,000) households. The cited reason that Wallace is Governor now is strongest among whites, MARKET OPINION RESEARCH not surprisingly, and among residents of District One. And the reason for improvement that there are now more opportunities for blacks is most often offered by residents of Districts Five and Six, by ticket- splitters and core Democrats, by low-income persons (under $5,000) and, not expectedly, by blacks. Why do you say Alabama is better off than it was two or three years ago? (33.4% of total) Type of Voter Income Race Under 5,000- Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg. $5,000 15,000 15,000 White Black More jobs available/ More industry 20.8% 20.8% 23.0% 23.1% 14.9% 19.2% 22.5% 20.7% 23.3% 13.5% We are on the move/ Better way of living 16.7 4.2 11.5 21.4 17.9 15.2 18.3 17.2 15.0 21.6 Better schools/ Organized the schools/ Mixing 13.8 8.3 18.0 16.2 7.5 12.1 16.7 13.8 13.0 16.2 Got Governor Wallace/ Good Governor 11.5 -- 14.8 13.7 9.0 12.1 11.7 10.3 16.1 -- More oppor- tunities for blacks 11.5 -- 8:2 14.5 13.4 19.2 7.5 6.9 4.1 31.1 Better roads/ Highways 10.0 8.3 11.5 10.3 9.0 8.1 10.8 6.9 11.4 6.8 Solving problems/ More co- operation 6.7 4.2 8.2 7.7 4.5 5.1 6.7 10.3 5.7 9.5 Better/ Higher salaries 5.2 12.5 4.9 6.0 1.5 5.1 6.7 3.4 6.7 1.4 Better govern- ment/Change of leader- ship 4.1 8.3 3.3 4.3 3.0 1.0 2.5 10.3 4.7 1.4 All others/ Don't know 29.0 45.8 29.5 21.3 35.9 29.3 30.8 20.7 31.7 21.6 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Those who feel Alabama is worse off cite as reasons: unemployment, inflation, and taxes (33.3%), educational system problems - notably funding (14.2%), the drug problem (12.3%), personal dislike of Wallace (10.3%), increasing crime (9.2%), racial problems (8.4%), government power (8.4%) and the school integration/bussing issue (7.3%), among others. Among types of voters, Republicans who think Alabama is worse off mention most often the reasons of personal dislike for Wallace and high taxes. Ticket-splitters cite increasing crime, high taxes, and excessive government power. Democrats tend to mention unemployment, while marginal voters cite racial problems. Young (18-24) persons mention most racial problems, young-middle age groups (25-44) mention most school problems, unemployment, and drugs, and older (over 65) mention most crime and unemployment. Unemployment and taxes are the reasons cited by lower income households (under $10,000). while higher income voters more often mention personal dislike of Wallace, the school problem, and drugs. Among blacks, key reasons mentioned are unemployment and high taxes. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Why do you say Alabama is worse off than two or three years ago? (32.4% of total) Type of Voter Income Race Under 5,000- Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. Marg $5,000 15,000 15,000 White Black Unemploy- ment 15.3% 18.2% 8.6% 19.8% 10.9% 21.6% 13.8% 4.8% 12.9% 27.1% School system/ Money for school 14.2 18.2 10.3 15.1 14.5 9.3 18.3 9.5 16.2 6.3 Too much drugs 12.3 9.1 15.5 14.3 5.5 10.3 16.5 4.8 14.3 4.2 Governor/ Can't stand Wallace 10.3 22.7 10.3 10.3 15.5 3.1 11.0 38.1 11.0 4.2 Inflation/ Incomes too low 10.0 9.1 8.6 12.7 5.5 11.3 11.0 4.8 11.4 4.2 Crime on the increase 9.2 -- 15.5 10.3 3.6 10.3 10.1 -- 8.6 12.5 Too many taxes/ Taxes too high 8.8 18.2 12.1 6.3 7.3 13.4 2.8 -- 7.1 16.7 Political power/ Government 8.4 9.1 13.8 7.9 3.6 6.2 9.2 23.8 9.0 6.3 Racial problems 8.4 -- 8.6 5.6 18.2 12.4 6.4 -- 9.5 4.2 Integration/ bussing 7.3 -- 12.1 4.8 10.9 10.3 7.3 -- 9.0 -- In debt/ No money/ Spend too much 5.4 13.6 5.2 4.8 3.6 2.1 5.5 9.5 6.2 2.1 All others/ Don't know 31.4 9.1 20.7 35.0 43.6 35.0 31.2 23.8 31.0 33.3 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Federal - State Relationships Almost sixty percent (58.5%) of Alabama residents feel Alabama has not been treated fairly by the Federal government. This sentiment is highest among core Republicans and ticket-splitters, Congressional Districts One, Four, and Seven, the youngest age group (18-24), the middle to high income group ($10,000-$15,000) and whites. Do you think that Alabama has or has not been treated as well as other states by the Federal government? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25 $10,000 $10,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Has 25.2 23.9 18.0 23.9 26.2 24.9 27.4 20.9 17.8 54.0 Has not 58.5 68.7 69.7 57.1 67.2 58.1 54.3 68.6 67.1 24.5 Don't know 16.3 7.5 12.4 18.9 6.6 17.0 18.3 10.5 15.1 21.5 Those who feel Alabama has not been well treated mention primarily forced integration and school integration issues (33.9%) and the unfairness of Federal enforcement on the topic (18.0%). Also mentioned is the feeling that Alabama does not get its share of Federal grants (13.2%) and the feeling that Alabama is unfairly pin-pointed for racial problems (11.5%). MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Why do you say that Alabama has not been treated as well by the Federal government? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-54 55 $10,000 $10,000 White Bla Forced school integration/ Bussing unfair 21.2% 19.6% 23.4%20.3% 26.8% 20.2%21.6% 20.5% 26.3% 22.5% 5. Double standard, one for South, ; one for North 18.0 21.7 22.6 15.7 4.9 20.6 17.3 15.4 24.6 19.4 5.1 Federal contracts given to other states/ not many grants 13.2 19.6 8.9 15.7 2.4 13.2 15.7 13.3 12.7 11.5 32. Forced integra- tion in South 12.7 8.7 15.3 12.0 12.2 13.2 12.4 13.6 10.2 12.2 17.5 Racialprejudice/ Pinpointed Alabama about racial problems 11.5 8.7 16.1 6.9 26.8 8.6 11.4 13.3 5.9 11.7 10. Forced to take a back seat 10.6 8.7 8.1 10.6 7.3 8.6 14.0 9.9 10.2 11.5 -- Federal govern- ment bucks our Governor/Dislike of Wallace 5.7 13.0 4.0 6.5 2.4 7.4' 4.3 5.8 6.8 6.3 -- * Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. A majority of the respondents indicate they feel the Federal government went too fast in desegregating the public schools in Alabama (58.5%); 27.7% feel the pace was about right, and 12.3% indicate the pace was too slow. Persons most likely to hold the opinions that the pace was too slow tend to be ticket-splitters, residents of Districts One, Four, and Eight, persons over 35, MARKET OPINION RESEARCH middle upper income ($10,000-$15,000) and white. Expectedly, the blacks, lower income, younger and marginal voters, in District Six, are more likely to have said the pace was about right or too slow. How do you think that the Federal government went in desegregating the public schools? Type of Voter Age Income Race Over Under $10,000 Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-34 35 $10,000 15,000 15.000 White Blac Too fast 58.5 61.2 65.2 60.3 54.5 59.8 55.4 70.6 65.7 70.9 9.2 Too slow 12.3 7.5 8.4 11.6 15.3 11.4 15.0 8.8 2.9 6.4 35.6 About right 27.7 31.3 25.8 26.6 30.2 26.7 27.6 20.6 30.0 22.2 49.7 Don't know 1.5 -- .6 1.6 -- 2.0 2.0 -- 1.4 .5 5.5 Those persons who see the desegregation pace imposed by the Federal government as too fast most often hold the Federal courts responsible (67.9%). Also mentioned as being responsible are the Department of Health, Education and Welfare (15.7%) and the Justice Department (9.3%). The United States Congress and President Nixon are mentioned only by about 6% of the respondents. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Who do you believe is most to blame for the forcing of the desegregation in public schools?* Type of Voter Total Sample Rep. T-S Dem. Marginal Federal courts 67.9% 65.9% 71.6% 67.2% 65.9% Department of Health, Education and Welfare 15.7 9.8 18.1 17.0 11.8 Justice Department 9.3 7.3 8.6 10.0 9.4 U.S. Congress 5.9 2.4 6.0 6.1 7.1 President Nixon 5.5 4.9 5.2 6.1 4.7 * Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. A significant majority of Alabama residents are not in favor of desegregating Alabama public schools (54.9%). Thirty-seven percent (37.3%) are in favor, and only 7.8% don't know. Republicans are most likely to be against desegre- gation, as are residents of Districts, One, Two, and Seven, older persons (35 and above) and whites. Are you in favor or not in favor of the desegregation of the Alabama public schools? Type of Voter Age Race Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-34 35 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Favor 37.3 32.8 39.3 36.1 48.5 33.4 27.2 76.7 Not in favor 54.9 61.2 55.1 54.7 46.5 57.8 65.4 13.5 Don't know 7.8 6.0 5.6 9.2 5.0 8.7 7.4 9.8 MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Those against desegregation cite reasons of "it's not right to do"/ "don't believe in mixing" (35.7%), "must have freedom of choice" (14.7%), "school standards are lowered" (11.1%), "undesirability of bussing" (9.0%), among others. Behavioral Republicans, younger (18-24) and middle high income ($10,000-$15,000) persons are more likely than other voter, age or income groups to give a freedom of choice rationale, while older (55 and above) and poorer (under $5,000) persons are more likely to insist that desegregation and mixing are simply not right. Why are you not in favor of desegregating Alabama schools?* (54.9% of total) Type of Voter Age Income Over Under $10,000 Total Rep. T-S Dem. 18-24 25-54 55 $5,000 $15,000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Don't believe in mixing/Not right to do 35.7% 26.8% 32.7% 36.1% 28.0% 26.3% 46.9% 51.0% 22.8% Believe in freedom of choice/Slower process 14.7 22.0 11.2 15.4 24.0 18.0 10.2 8.4 33.3 Standards are lowered/Quality more important 11.1 12.2 11.2 12.0 4.0 15.7 7.1 5.2 14.0 Don't want bussing 9.0 12.2 10.2 10.1 8.0 9.7 8.2 10.3 8.8 Won't work/Cause friction 8.6 4.9 6.1 11.5 12.0 8.3 8.7 7.7 5.3 * Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Those in favor of desegregation cite most often reasons of equal rights for all (48.3%) and of blacks needing education (12.3%), and other reasons. Why are you in favor of desegregating Alabama schools?* (37.3%) of total) Total % Equal rights for all/go wherever you want 48.3% Blacks need education/Have a right to a good school 12.3 Need quality education/Better schools 8.0 Closest school/Not by bussing 7.0 Has to be done to grow/ Learn to get along 6.3 Not prejudiced/Like mixing 5.3 * Does not include responses receiving less than 5% mention. In spite of their predominantly negative desire for public school desegrega- tion, most persons in Alabama (59.6%) believe that the Federal government will ultimately force the complete integration of all public schools. Those insisting it will not (20.9%) are about as large a group as those not knowing (19.5%). Congressional District One is notably low in its belief that com- plete integration will result, as are the oldest age group of respondents (65 and over). Opinion also polarizes in the over $15,000 income bracket, where there are fewer don't know responses and relatively much feeling that complete integration will not be ultimately achieved. Blacks are the most uncertain group. MARKET OPINION RESEARCH Do you think that the Federal government will or will not ultimately force the complete integration of all public schools? Type of Voter Age Income Race Under Over Under Over Total Rep. T-S Dem. 65 65 $15,000 15,000 White Black 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Will 59.6 50.7 54.5 63.2 62.7 48.5 60.7 57.1 60.7 55.2 Will not 20.9 25.4 27.0 19.2 20.8 21.0 19.5 31.4 21.5 17.8 Don't know 19.5 23.9 18.5 17.6 16.5 30.5 19.8 11.4 17.8 27.0