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To: John N. Mitchell, H.R. Haldeman, Harry S. Dent, Jeb Magruder, Gordon C. Strachan From: L. Keith Bulen RE: Brief analysis of two in depth professional polls of Marion County (Indianapolis), Indiana, for the local Mayor's race. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 10/5/1971
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This file contains:
To: John N. Mitchell, H.R. Haldeman, Harry S. Dent, Jeb Magruder, Gordon C. Strachan From: L. Keith Bulen RE: Brief analysis of two in depth professional polls of Marion County (Indianapolis), Indiana, for the local Mayor's race. 9 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Letter], 10/5/1971
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
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Subject
Document Type
Document Description
44
18
10/5/1971
Campaign
Letter
To: John N. Mitchell, H.R. Haldeman, Harry
S. Dent, Jeb Magruder, Gordon C. Strachan
From: L. Keith Bulen RE: Brief analysis of
two in depth professional polls of Marion
County (Indianapolis), Indiana, for the local
Mayor's race. 9pgs
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Page 1 of 1
File
Republican
National
bees
Committee.
October 5, 1971
L. Keith Bulen
Member for Indiana
Executive Committee
Republican National Committee
144 North Delaware Street
Indianapolls, Indiana 46204
(317) 635-8881
The Honorable John N. Mitchell
Mr. H. R. Haldeman
Mr. Harry S. Dent
Mr. Jeb Magruder
Mr. Gordon C. Strachan
Gentlemen:
Enclosed, for your information only, is a brief
analysis of two in depth professional polls of
my county, in conjunction with the local Mayor's
race.
I have included only the part pertaining to na-
tional issues and the President.
These polls have not, nor will not be made public.
Best wishes,
L. Keith Keith Bulen
LKB/rm
Enclosure
1971 PROFESSIONAL SURVEYS
Marion County (Indianapolis), Indiana
The following is an analysis of two professional
surveys, as they affect national issues, taken in Marion County,
Indiana, in February and September, 1971, for Mayor Richard G.
Lugar's re-election campaign. The surveys were conducted by
Market Opinion Research of Detroit, Michigan. The results of the
February poll were based upon 402 personal interviews, and the
September poll was based upon 491 personal interviews. The last
day of interviews, for the second poll, was September 12, 1971.
Political surveys taken since 1966 indicate that there
are approximately ten to twelve per cent more Democrats in Marion
County, than there are Republicans (see page 3). This is true,
even though Republicans have won four consecutive elections in
Marion County (1966, 1967, 1968 & 1970). The Democrat/Republican
spread decreased between the February and September surveys, with
both parties losing support, with an increase in the Independent
percentage.
JOB RATINGS:
President Nixon's job rating slipped somewhat between
February and September. In February 43.5% said President Nixon
was doing Excellent or Good. In September that rating dropped to
41.9%. Although fewer September respondents, as compared with
February, said the President was doing a poor job (see page 4).
While the President's job rating increased from February to September
with Republicans, and held constant with Democrats, it slipped
considerably with ticket splitters. In February 61. 3% of the ticket
splitters said Nixon was doing Excellent/Good. In September that
percentage dropped to 48.6%. Also 9% more ticket splitters said the
President was doing a poor job than was shown on the February poll
(see page 5).
Vice President Agnew's job rating also dropped
between February and September (see page 4). The Vice President's
Excellent/Good rating is eight to ten percentage points below that
of the President. The Vice President's job rating dropped equally
with Republicans, Democrats and Ticketsplitters (see page 5).
Indiana Governor Whitcomb's Excellent/Good rating
dropped slightly also between the two surveys. The Governor's
rating remains about three percentage points above that of the
Vice President (see pages 4 & 5).
On both surveys the majority of the voters approved
of the job being done by Mayor Lugar of Indianapolis, with a September
approval rating of 50. 7% (see pages 4 & 5).
Page 2
ISSUES:
The two major national issues, as perceived by
Marion County voters, exchanged places between February and
September (see page 6). In February the Vietnam War was listed
as the major issue, and the economy second. Just the opposite
was true in September. Bussing of school children completely
dominated local issues (see page 8), and its affect was felt on
the national issues also. Bussing, as a national issue, went from
zero percent in February to the third most important (23. 2%) in
September. Related issues to bussing also increased (racial problems
up 7. 5% and Schools up 2. 9%).
The economy was of equal concern to all three
classifications of voters; Vietnam of more concern to ticket splitters
than Republicans or Democrats; and bussing was of more concern
to Republicans. Unemployment and racial problems were more
significant with Democrats (see page 7).
About two thirds of the voters in Marion County
(September poll) approve of the President's recently announced
economic policies, while less than 20% disapprove. Approval, as
expected, is highest with Republicans and lowest with Democrats,
although over half of the Democrats approve.
Page 3
REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT
When asked what do you consider yourself, the responses
were:
September
February
Republican
32.2%
34. 3%
Democrat
38.9%
43.0%
Ticket Splitter
24.4%
17.9%
Don't Know
4. 5%
4. 8%
When asked how they voted in 1970 U.S. Senate race,
the responses were:
September
February
Republican
39.5%
48.3%
Democrat
35.8%
51.7%
Didn't Vote
18.7%
Don't Know
5.9%
Actual Marion County vote in 1970 U.S. Senate Race:
Republican
52. 3%
Democrat
47.7%
Page 4
JOB RATINGS
(Total Sample)
September
February
NIXON:
Excellent
8. 1%
8. 7%
Good
33.8%
34.8%
Fair
31. 6%
30. 1%
Poor
24. 2%
24. 9%
Don't Know
2. 2%
1. 5%
AGNEW:
Excellent
8. 8%
11. 2%
Good
24.2%
23. 9%
Fair
30. 8%
30. 8%
Poor
25. 1%
28. 6%
Don't Know
11. 2%
3. 5%
Governor WHITCOMB:
Excellent
4. 1%
5. 7%
Good
32. 2%
32. 6%
Fair
36. 6%
35. 8%
Poor
20.6%
21. 6%
Don't Know
6. 7%
4.2%
Mayor LUGAR:
Approve
50. 7%
Disapprove
34.6%
Don't Know
14.7%
Excellent
15. 7%
Good
33. 1%
Fair
28. 6%
Poor
21. 1%
Don't Know
1. 5%
Page 5
JOB RATINGS
February
September
Rep.
T/S
Demo
Rep.
T/S
Demo
NIXON:
Excellent
15.9
8.3
1.7
19.5
1.1
2.2
Good
48.6
52.8
16.2
54.3
37.5
16.0
Fair
29.0
26.4
33.5
22.6
37.5
37.0
Poor
5.8
12.5
46.2
3.7
21.6
42.5
Don't Know
.7
.0
2.3
.0
2.3
2.2
AGNEW:
Excellent
23.2
5.6
3.5
19.5
8.0
2.2
Good
37.7
29.2
11.0
39.0
23.9
11.6
Fair
25.4
41.7
31.2
29.3
40.9
29.8
Poor
8.7
19.4
48.6
6.1
17.0
44.8
Don't Know
5.1
4.2
5.8
16.1
10.2
11.6
WHITCOMB:
Excellent
7.2
4.2
4.6
7.9
3.4
1.7
Good
42.0
45.8
22.0
42.7
31.8
26.0
Fair
35.5
34.7
34.7
35.4
37.5
35.9
Poor
9.4
13.9
35.3
11.0
22.7
29.3
Don't Know
5.8
1.4
3.5
3.0
4.5
7.2
LUGAR:
Approve
70.7
54.5
35.9
Disapprove
19.5
34.1
45.9
Don't Know
9.8
11.4
18.2
Excellent
24.6
20.8
6.9
Good
42.0
38.9
24.9
Fair
21.7
30.6
31.8
Poor
10.1
9.7
34.1
Don't Know
1.4
0
2.3
Page 6
NATIONAL ISSUES
Issues
February
September
Cost of living/inflation
26. 4
39. 3
Vietnam War
45.0
38. 3
Bussing of School Children
0
23. 2
Unemployment
20.6
22.2
Racial Problems
8.2
15.7
Drugs
11.9
12.8
Wage Freeze
0
10.6
High Taxes
12.4
9.4
Crime Increase
8.0
8.4
Pollution
14.4
6.1
Education/Schools
2.2
5.1
Lack of leadership/Anti-Nixon
4.5
4.5
Welfare
8.7
3.9
Youth Unrest
6.5
3.1
National Budget/Money
6.0
2.2
Housing
0
1.8
Poverty
5.2
1.8
Communism
0
1.2
Foriegn Aid
2.5
0
Social Unrest
2.5
0
Others
17.2
0
Don't Know
5.2
0
NATIONAL ISSUES
Page 7
(September Poll)
Issues
Rep.
T/S
Demo.
Cost of living/Inflation
39.0
39.8
37.0
Vietnam War
36.6
40.9
37.0
Bussing School Children
25.0
20.5
23.2
Unemployment
16.5
21.6
28.2
Racial Problems
16.5
12.5
17.7
Drugs
15.2
9.1
11.6
Wage Freeze
12.2
10.2
11.0
High Taxes
6.7
11.4
12.2
Crime Increase
8.5
8.0
8.3
Pollution
7.9
5.7
4.4
Education/Schools
4.3
3.4
5.5
Lack of leadership/Anti-Nixon
6.1
5.7
3.9
Welfare
4.3
5.7
3.3
Youth Unrest
5.5
3.4
1.7
National Budget/Money
3.0
3.4
1.1
Housing
1.8
.6
1.1
Poverty
1.2
1.1
2.8
Communism
1.8
2.3
.6
!
Page 8
MARION COUNTY ISSUES
Issues
February
September
Bussing/Schools/Racial
15.4
78.0
Taxes
19.9
20.8
Unemployment
17.2
14.5
Unified Government
10.7
13.2
Crime
16.2
11.2
Drugs
7.2
9.0
Housing
10.2
8.1
Welfare
6.0
7.9
Streets
13.9
8.1
Cost of living
6.7
7.7
Law Enforcement
6.2
2.4
Pollution
6.0
6.5
City Officials
4.0
3.5