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This file contains: Position Paper on the 1972 Campaign - focusing on the American Electorate. 17pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 4/18/1972

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This file contains: Position Paper on the 1972 Campaign - focusing on the American Electorate. 17pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 4/18/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library Contested Materials Collection Folder List Box Number Folder Number Document Date No Date Subject Document Type Document Description 45 47 4/18/1972 Campaign Report Position Paper on the 1972 Campaign - focusing on the American Electorate. 17pgs Thursday, March 15, 2012 Page 1 of 1 II. The American Electorate 1. Total Voters In 1972 an estimated 139.6 million Americans will be eligible to vote. This is about 19.4 million potential voters more than the 1968 total, or an increase of 16.1%. Most of this large increase in eligible voters is attri- butable to the 11.4 million 18-20 year olds who have been newly enfranchised by the Voting Rights Act Amendment of 1970.* In 1968 about 61% of those eligible actually voted in the Presidential election. If that same percentage holds for 1972, there will be about 85 million votes cast this November. Est. Eligible Voters Est. Actual Voters % 1968 120.3 73.0 60.7 1972 139.6 84.7 60.7 2. Voting by Region of the U.S. The South, with the greatest concentration of eligible voters, has the lowest voter turnout of any region, while the North Central region has the highest voter turnout and provides the greatest number of actual voters. More important, however, are the regions' electoral votes; the South, with 169 electoral votes, has over 31% of the nation's total, followed by the North Central, the North East and then the West. * This act also enfranchises about 6 million other persons who previously had been unable to pass literacy tests. Regional Popular* and Electoral Votes Actual Voters Est. Est. as % of Eligi- % of Total Eligible Actual ble: 1968 & U.S. Vote: Voters Voters Est. 1972 1972 Electoral Vote 1972 % of 1968 1972 1968 1972 No. Total U.S. orth East 30.1 34.2 19.2 21.9 63.9 25.8 122 22.6 orth Central 33.1 38.2 22.2 25.6 67.1 30.3 145 27.0 outh 36.8 43.1 19.2 22.4 52.0 26.4 169 31.4 lest 20.3 24.2 12.4 14.8 61.3 17.5 102 19.0 (Popular vote shown in millions) * Source of popular vote data: March 1972 Population Estimates and Projections, U.S. Department of Commerce 3. Voting by Sex* In 1964, about 2 million more women than men reported casting votes in the Presidential election. In 1968 the number of female voters was about 3 million more than male voters. Based on this, it appears that in 1972 women voters will outnumber male voters again by about 3 million. 4. Voting by Occupation In 1964 and 1968 just over half of all voters were white collar workers and another third of all voters were manual workers. Service occupations accounted for 10% of the vote, and farm voters made up the remaining 5%. Although it might be expected that the percentage of farm voters will decline and the voters from service occupations will increase somewhat, the overall complexion of voters by occupation is unlikely to change substantially in 1972 ("students" are not listed as a census occupation). * Voting breakouts by sex, age, occupation, education, race and income are based on a U.S. Bureau of Census survey reported in "Voting and Registration in the Election of November, 1968", December 2, 1969. These data show that about 8% more people said they voted than (the March 1972 voting report of the 1968 election indicates) actually voted. Accepting this discrepency, the demographic breakouts of voters are still useful for assessing and analyzing the electorate. 5. Voting by Family Income In 1968 approximately 20% of those who said they voted reported a total family annual income of less than $5,000. About 40% reported earning between $5,000 and $10,000. The remaining 33% who reported their family incomes placed total earnings at $10,000 per year. These figures fluctuated considerably from 1964 reports. 6. Voting by Education The educational level of American voters is increasing, and may be expected to continue to increase in the 1972 election and beyond. Educational Level of Voters Less than high school grad. High school grad. Some or Grad College 1964 41.3% 34.6% 23.0% 1968 36.7 36.9 25.0 7. Voting by Age If Americans vote in about the same percentage by age group in 1972 as they did in 1968 (and 18-21 year olds vote in the same proportion as 21-24 year olds in the last election), it is estimated that the electorate would divide as follows: Estimated 1972 Voters by Age 18-20 21-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Total Est. # of 5.0 7.0 16.0 32.0 25.0 85.0 Actual Voters % of 6% 8% 19% 38% 29% 100% Total Voters (Millions of voters) 8. Voting by Race Based on 1964 and 1968 voting patterns, it is anticipated that, of the estimated total 85 million voters, about 78 million, or 92%, will be white and approximately 7 million, or 8%, will be Negro. No data are available on other races. (See Exhibit 1 for estimated "actual" voting percentages in 1972.) III. Voter Attitudes - Perceptions of the Candidates It is probably impossible to separate voters' views of a candidate's personal attributes and qualifications from voter perceptions of the issues and how a candidate deals with those issues. The voting decision, especially among currently non-committed voters or those who are ticket splitters, is likely based on a combination of feelings about both the qualities of the candidates and the issues. Research suggests several things about how voters see the men who are now running for the Presidency: 1. Among those who approve of the way Richard Nixon is handling his job, the major reason given for this approval is the President's qualifications and attributes. This is true for ticket splitters as well as the general electorate, and holds for all sections of the country. Approve/Disapprove of Way Nixon Is Handling His Job Approve Disapprove Jan. '72 (Committee) 54% 35% Jan. '72 (Gallup) 49 39 After China Trip 56 32 (Gallup) (Total Sample) Why Do You Approve? (Jan. '72 Committee) Total Ticket Splitters Personal quali- 57% 54% fications and attributes Ending the war 17 21 Economic policy 8 6 2. Those who disapprove of the President's job performance also cite personal attributes as a major reason. This appears to hold for all sections of the U.S. Why Do You Disapprove? Total Ticket Splitters' Personal dislikes 17% 23% Hasn't kept promises 14 13 Done nothing about the 17 17 war Economic policy 13 13 3. Overall, most Americans believe that Richard Nixon is performing about average in comparison to previous Presidents, with voters from metro areas and the East slightly less inclined to rank Nixon as high as other voters. Total Ticket Splitters Metro Areas East Better than average 16% 17% 13% 12% About average 61 66 59 66 Not as good as most 21 16 26 21 4. When asked to briefly describe Richard Nixon as a person, the majority of responses are positive for all sections of the country. Total East Midwest South West Sincere/Honest 19% 21% 15% 22% 17% Integrity Doing his best/ 5 6 5 3 4 Dedicated Intelligent/ 8 7 6 11 8 Smart/Iducated Strong-Minded/ 8 9 7 8 7 Aggressive 5. When asked to rate the President and three Democrats separately on a series of descriptive attributes: a. Nixon emerges with the strongest image on the "profes- sional" attributes ("experienced", "trained", "informed", "competent") among all voter segments. His only competition comes from Humphrey, who is rated equally with the President in metro areas. How Candidates Compare on Four "Professional" Attributes: (Percent of Time Each Candidate First or Second) Nixon Muskie Humphrey Kennedy Total Electorate 100% 25% 75% 25% Ticket Splitters 100 25 75 - East 100 25 75 25 Midwest 100 50 75 - South 100 50 50 25 West 100 25 75 - Metro 75 25 75 25 Non-Metro 100 25 75 - b. On attributes relating to "trust" ("open-minded", "honest", "just"), Nixon is perceived considerably behind Muskie, except among the important ticket splitter group. Humphrey and Kennedy receive overall ratings comparable to the President, but fall behind among ticket splitters. How Candidates Compare on Attributes of "Trust" (Percent of Time Each Candidate First or Second) Nixon Muskie Humphrey Kennedy Total Electorate 33% 100% 33% 33% Ticket Splitters 100 100 - - East 33 100 33 33 Midwest 33 100 I 66 South 66 100 - 33 Nixon Muskie Humphrey Kennedy West 33% 33% 33% 33% Metro - 100 33 33 Non-Metro 100 66 - 33 Another indication of this public perception of "trust" is seen in responses to questioning about the information which the Nixon Administration releases to the public. About half of the total group surveyed believes that the administration "tries to make things more favorable than they really are." A quarter of the respondents feel that information is "held back or slanted". Only 19% believe that the administration is "always frank and truthful". C. In the area of "personal" qualities ("warm", "extro- verted", "frank", "sense of humor", "relaxed"), the President is viewed far less favorably than any of the three Democrats. In addition, Edmund Muskie, probably because he is not as well known, is seen by virtually all voter groups as less personable than either Humphrey or Kennedy. How Candidates Compare on Five "Personal" Attributes: (Percent of Time Each Candidate First or Second) Nixon Muskie Humphrey Kennedy Total Electorate -% 20% 80% 80% Ticket Splitters - 20 100 80 East - 40 100 80 Midwest - 40 100 80 South - 60 80 60 West - 60 60 80 Metro - 20 80 80 Non-Metro 20 20 100 40 (See Exhibit 2 for rankings on each attribute. The attributes shown above in categories of "professional", "trust" and "personal" were of of response clusters.) IV. Voter Attitudes - The Issues Based primarily on research conducted in January, 1972, voter attitudes on issues are as follows: 1. Vietnam - The war in Vietnam was viewed as the single most important and the second most important issue facing the United States today. Also, when asked specifically about the war, 82% of all voters queried said that Vietnam is an important problem to them. When asked which issue would be most important in voting for a President, total respondents and all sectional groups except the South cited Vietnam as the most important voting issue. The war appears to be seen as both a positive and negative factor for the Nixon Administration. The President's performance on the war is listed first as both the major accomplishment of the Nixon Administration and also as the major failure. With the relatively low level of American troops currently in Vietnam, and the troop withdrawel continuing, it will be necessary to measure voter perceptions repeatedly over the next half year to determine whether the war issue remains as important as the January, 1972 study indicates. 2. The Economy -- This issue was listed after Vietnam as the most important problem facing the U.S. Inflation is regarded as an important personal problem to 82% of total voters, and taxes, which may be indirectly related to economic conditions in voters' minds, are viewed as an important personal problem by 74% of the total sample. Generally, the President's performance on economic issues receives positive ratings from the majority of voters, with the lowest overall ratings coming from voters residing in metro areas and the East. VOTER RATINGS OF NIXON PERFORMANCE -- ECONOMY ECONOMIC CONDITIONS INFLATION TAXES Approve Disapprove approve disapprove approve disapprove Total: 49% 38% 64% 33% 56% 40% Ticket Splitters 55 31 72 25 58 37 East 46 41 62 35 48 48 Midwest 52 36 67 29 56 40 South 47 39 62 35 60 36 West 53 34 66 32 56 38 tro 44 44 57 41 51 46 Non-Metro 52 33 65 33 58 38 3. Unemployment - This issue is rated behind Vietnam and the Economy as the most important problem facing the country today, although in non-metro areas and in the South umemployment receives less emphasis than elsewhere. The problem is most acute in metro areas, where 81% of those surveyed rate unemploy- ment as a serious personal problem. Unemployment should be anticipated as an issue which the opposi- tion will attack heavily, since it is here that the President receives low ratings for performance. HOW WELL IS NIXON HANDLING UNEMPLOYMENT Total Voters Ticket Splitters East Midwest South West Positive 42 43 36 41 48 42 Negative 54 52 60 55 46 54 Metro Non-Metro Positive 34 50 Negative 64 46 4. Crime and Drugs - Both these issues rate lower than the war and the pocketbook issues of the economy and unemployment as the single and second most important problems facing the nation today. However, when asked to respond to specific problems in personal terms, crime and drugs rank above all other issues. In addition, voters tend to rate the President low on his handling of the drug problem and are about evenly split in rating his performance on dealing with crime. HOW WELL NIXON IS HANDLING DRUGS/CRIME Total Ticket East Midwest South West Metro Non Voters Splitters Metro DRUGS Positive 38% 44% 34% 40% 40% 37% 32% 39% Negative 55 50 62 53 54 53 63 53 CRIME Positive 46 48 40 48 49 46 42 47 Negative 50 49 54 49 47 47 55 49 5. Other Issues - Race relations are cited by voters, especially among ticket splitters and those residing in the East, Midwest, and South as one of the second most important U.S. problems. At the same time, a majority of American voters from all sections of the country believe that "treatment of Blacks is improving under Nixon". * * The sample size of the survey does not permit a breakout of attitudes among Black voters. The environment is not listed by voters as one of the nation's most important problems, but 74% of respondents later said that environmental pollution was an important personal problem. In addition, 65% of all voters sampled would pay higher taxes if the money were used to clean up the environment. Only 20% disagreed with this proposal. Westerners and metro area residents are most in accord with this concept. Bussing is not cited in this research as a significant issue, probably because the study was completed before the Florida primary and other events brought this issue to the front. The research does confirm, however, that three out of four voters are in favor of integrated schools, but against bussing as a means of integration. Surprisingly, "general unrest" is considered to be a concern which ranks behind only Vietnam and inflation as the issue most important in selecting a President. The issue does not surface among voters' lists of important problems facing the nation today, and therefore may be the reflection of the national concern over the social disruptions of the late 60's. Another possibility is that "general unrest" is indicative of an unarticulated, broad feeling of dissatisfaction with current conditions in the U.S. - the same area that Wallace, and now other Democrats, are attacking with their "populist" approaches. (See Exhibit 3 for full information on issues.) -13- V. Voter Attitudes - Trial Heat Indications There appear to be no available data on correlating trial heat trends in presidential election years with actual voting performance. Therefore, the value of trial heat trends at various stages in an election year as a predictor of election results is unknown. However, trial heats do appear useful as: a. Indications of general voter attitudes towards the candidates, b. Reflections of voter response to events, such as a Presidential action, a primary result, or some outside influence, c. A tracking of the opposition. Reliable trial heat data on a national basis are currently unavailable from Committee research. Published trial heats from Gallup, Harris, etc. are being compiled for the November Group's competitive analysis. Briefly, here is where the President stands VS. potential Democratic contenders, as shown in most recent public polls: Three Way Race Nixon Muskie Wallace Not Sure 3/72 Harris 47% 35% 12% 6% 2/72 Harris 44 40 11 5 2/72 Gallup 43 42 10 5 Nixon Humphrey Wallace Not Sure 3/72 Harris 48% 35% 12% 5% 2/72 Harris 47 36 12 5 2/72 Gallup 46 39 10 5 Nixon Kennedy Wallace Not Sure 2/72 Gallup 47% 39% 9% 5% 11/71 Gallup 44 41 10 5 Nixon McGovern Wallace Not Sure 2/72 Gallup 49% 34% 11% 6% 11/71 Gallup 49 33 12 6 Two Way Race Nixon Muskie Not Sure 2/72 Harris 47% 45% 8% 15 1972 VOTING ESTIMATES - BY P GRAPHIC GROUP PERCENT. OF TOTAL "ACTUAL" VO._ ESTIMATED 35% 27% 48% LESS THAN SOME OR Male HIGH SCHOOL GRAD. COLLEGE GRAD 52% HIGH SCHOOL GRAD Female 38% TOTAL ELECTORATE: 85 MILLION SEX EDUCATION NEGRO 18-24 8% 53% 14% WHITE COLLAR 55+ 25-34 29% 19% SERVICE 11% 5% 34% 92% 35-54 FARM MANUAL WHITE 38% OCCUPATION RACE AGE Exhibit 3 THE ISSUES Single Most Important Second Most Important Rank of Issues From "How Rank of Issues Important in Problem Facing U.S. Today Problem Facing U.S. Today Important a Problem is -- Deciding Vote for President to You? (%) (%) Total Ticket Splitters East Midwest South Metro Non-Metro Total Ticket Splitters Midwest South Metro Non-Metro Total Ticket Splitters West East Midwest South West Metro Non-Metro Total Ticket Splitters West East East Midwest South West Metro Non-Metro 31 26 33 34 29 26 29 31 20 23 17 17 23 23 23 17 3 3 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 '1 Vietnam 2 2 1 2 2 2 16 18 17 15 18 13 17 15 14 13 16 11 15 12 13 15 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 Inflation/Economy 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 Unemployment 8 8 8 .9 5 10 11 5 7 5 7 7 4 10 9 4 5 Crime 6 6 7 8 6 4 9 3 5 4 7 5 4 5 6 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 7 6 5 5 7 8 '5 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 5 7 7 5 .9 6 4 8 7 6 2 5 7 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 6 7 6 6 Drugs 6 3 6 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 7 6 5 6 5 6 Race Relations 3 3 1 4 5 2 3 4 6 7 8 6 3 2 2 1 4 3 3 3 2 2 4 2 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 5 5 4 4 6 6 5 5 Taxes 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 3 4 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 6 8 5 5 3 5 7 5 4 5 Environment 2 1 2 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 - - - - - - Busing 1 - - - - - - . General Unrest 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 2 7 8 8 8 5 7 9 7 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 Exhibit 2 RANKINGS ON ATTRIBUTES Total Ticket Electorate Split, East Midwest South West Metro Non-Metro 1. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX 2. HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH Experienced 3. MUS MUS MUS MUS MUS/KEN MUS MUS MUS 4. KEN KEN KEN KEN - KEN KEN KEN 1. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX 2. HHH EHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH Trained 3. MUS MUS MUS KEN KEN MUS MUS KEN 4. KEN KEN KEN MUS MUS KEN KEN MUS 1. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX 2. HHH/KEN HHH HHH/KEN MUS/HHH KEN HHH KEN HHH Informed 3. MUS KEN MUS KEN HHH MUS HHH MUS 4. - MUS - - MUS KEN MUS KEN 1. NIX NIX MUS MUS NIX NIX MUS NIX 2. MUS MUS NIX NIX MUS MUS HHH MUS Competent 3. HHH HHH HHH KEN HHH HHH NIX HHH 4. KEN KEN KEN HHH KEN KEN KEN KEN 1. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX 2. MUS HHH MUS MUS MUS MUS MUS MUS Conservative 3. HHH MUS HHH 6HH HHH HHH HHH HHH 4. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN 1. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN 2. HHH MUS HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH Liberal 3. MUS HHH MUS MUS MUS MUS MUS MUS 4. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIH NIX NIX NIX 1. MUS NIN MUS MUS NIX NIX MUS NIX 2. NIX MUS NIX NIX MUS HHH HHH MUS Honest 3. HHH HHH HHH HHH HHH MUS KEN HHE 4. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN NIX KEN 1. MUS NIX HHH KEN NIX MUS MUS NIX 2. HHH MUS MUS MUS MUS HHH HHH MUS Just 3. NIX HHH NIX HHH HHH NIX KEN HER 4. KEN KEN KEN NIX KEN KEN NIX KEN 1. NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX NIX MUS NIX 2. MUS MUS MUS KEN MUS HEH NIX MUS Safe 3. HHH HIIH HHH MUS HHH MUS HHH HER 4. KEN KEN KEN HHH KEN KEN KEN KEN 1. NIX NIN NIX MUS KEN NIX NIX KEN 2. MUS MUS MUS NIX NIX/ HHH KHH MUS HER Tough 3. KEN KEN KEN KEN MUS MUS HHH MTS 4. EHH HHH HHH HHH - KEN KEN NIX 1. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN 2. NIX NIX NIX NIX HHH NIX NIX HER Aggressive 3. HHH HHH MUS MUS NIX MUS HHH NIX 4. MUS MUS HHH HHH MUS HHH MUS MUS 1. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN 2. NIX NIX NIX NIX HHH NIX NIX HHH Bold 3. MUS HER MUS HHH NIX MUS HEH NIX 4. HHH MUS HHH MUS MUS HHH MUS MJS 1. MUS NIX MUS MUS MUS KEN MUS KEN 2. KEN MUS KEN KEN KEN HHH KEN Й --3 Open-Minded 3. HHH KEN HHH HHH NIX MUS HEH HEH 4. NIX HHH NIX NIX HHH NIX NIX MUS Exhibit 2 Cont'd RANKINGS ON ATTRIBUTES Total Ticket Electorate Split East Midwest South West Metro Non-Metro 1. KEN HHH KEN KEN/HHH HHH MUS KEN MUS 2. HHH KEN HHH/MUS MUS KEN KEN/HHH MUS HHH Frank 3. MUS MUS NIX NIX MUS NIX HHH KEN 4. NIX NIX - - NIX - NIX NIX 1. KEN KEN KEN/HHH KEN MUS KEN KEN NIX 2. HHH HHH MUS HHH KEN MUS HHH HHH Warm 3. MUS MUS NIX MUS HHH HEH MUS KEN 4. NIX NIX - NIX NIX NIX NIX MUS 1. KEN KEN KEN KEN HHH HHH KEN KEN 2. HHH HHH HHH HHH KEN KEN HHH HHH Extroverted 3. MUS NIX MUS MUS NIX MUS MUS NIX 4. NIX MUS NIX NIX MUS NEW NIX MUS 1 KEN HHH KEN KEN HHH KEN KEN KEN 2. MUS MUS HHH MUS MUS MUS HHH HHH Relaxed 3. HHH KEN MUS HHH KEN HEH MUS MUS 4. NIX NIX NIX NIN NIX NIX NIX NIX 1. HHH HHH HHH KEN MUS HEH HHH HHH 2. KEN KEN KEN HHH HHH KEN KEN KEN Sense of 3. MUS NIX MUS MUS KEN MUS MUS NIX Humor 4. NIX MUS NIX NIX NIX NIN NIX MUS 1. KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN KEN 2. MUS NIX HHH NIX MUS MUS MUS NIX Up to Date 3. NIX HEH/MUS MUS MUS NIX NIX NIX MUS 4. HHH - NIX HHH HHH HEH HHH HHH