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To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat Poll." 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1971
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat Poll." 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1971
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WHSF: Contested, 45-51
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This file contains:
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat Poll." 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1971
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat Poll." 2pgs [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/20/1971
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
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45
51
10/20/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat
Poll." 2pgs
45
51
10/20/1971
Campaign
Memo
To: H.R. Haldeman From: Gordon Strachan
RE: "Presidential Popularity and Trial Heat
Poll." 2pgs
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Page 1 of 1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
October 20, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Presidential Popularity and
Trial Heat Poll
In light of the recent Harris and Gallup popularity figures,
it might be valuable to have ORC conduct a popularity and
trial heat poll. A trial heat poll has not been conducted
since June 5-6, before the China and Moscow trip announcements
and the new economic program. The new popularity series that
measures "intensity of feeling" and "why disapprove"
ould
be used.
Tom Benham prepared recommendations for a poll to assess the
strengths of the Democratic contenders and the effect of
third and fourth party candidates. He suggests running two-
way and three-way trial heats so that a cross-tabulation could
"identify which persons shift to Wallace from RMN or the
Democrats in a three-way race". He also urges the use of
the "familiarity/favorability" questions as well as fourth
party options. If the questionnaire probed the two, three,
and four-way trial heats with Muskie, Kennedy, Humphrey and
McGovern as the Democrats and Eugene McCarthy and Shirley
Chisholm as the fourth party candidates, the polling would
take two days and the results would be available on the
third day. A suggested questionnaire is attached.
However, there are several other possible areas that could
be substituted for the trial heat questions.
You suggested that the public's interest in defense expenditures
should be probed by asking whether they would be "willing to
maintain a strong defense even if it meant giving up programs
for other things, etc.". This area is being explored by the
Harris Family Issues--In Depth Poll, the results of which
are due this week. These Harris questions are attached
Probablya
should you decide that comparative compidentially results would be useful.
Larry Higby suggested that we probe the relative strength of
dumb idea.
-2-
Agnew and Connally as Vice Presidential candidates. However,
he made this suggestion before the Harris results of September
27 which indicated that Connally was stronger (52 to 36).
Higby also suggested that questions be devised to follow-up
on the Roper "right track/wrong track" question. Many issue
results will be available from the Harris Family Issues-In
Depth Poll this week, but suggested questions are attached
nevertheless.
Dwight Chapin noted that although 25% of the people feel
quilty about the amount of time spent watching television,
he believes that the people expect their President to appear
on television and that it is their duty to watch. Suggested
questions are attached.
Safire believes it would be valuable to conduct a poll
among blacks to assess their reaction "to the Muskie statement
and the Nixon riposte".
To obtain results accurate enough to form a press release
300 blacks would have to be questioned. If the standard
1000 interview were expanded to 1200 a full 300 blacks
could be questioned resulting in an accuracy level of +7%.
The additional blacks would be harder to reach by telephone
and so interviewing time would be four days instead of two.
The additional cost would be $3,500 to $4,000. Suggested
questions are attached.
In addition, question areas which were offered for the
Wrap-Up Poll but not asked include: Jail terms for drugs,
welfare--menial jobs, credibility of polls, government
policy and polls, SALT talks, Gallup issues ranking, envi-
ronment/pollution, revenue sharing, no fault insurance, the
U.S. Army, and approval of Vice President Agnew. Questions
in these areas with trend data are immediately available
but not attached.
Any of these additional question areas can only be added if
some of the trial heat combinations are dropped.
Recommendation:
That a Presidential popularity and trial heat poll be
conducted on October 23 and 24 so that results will be
available October 25.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Administratively Confidential
October 20, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H.R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Presidential Popularity and
Trial Heat Poll
In light of the recent Harris and Gallup popularity figures,
it might be valuable to have ORC conduct a popularity and
trial heat poll. A trial heat poll has not been conducted
since June 5-6, before the China and Moscow trip announcements
and the new economic program. The new popularity series that
measures "intensity of feeling" and "why disapprove" ould
be used.
Tom Benham prepared recommendations for a poll to assess the
strengths of the Democratic contenders and the effect of
third and fourth party candidates. He suggests running two-
way and three-way trial heats so that a cross-tabulation could
"identify which persons shift to Wallace from RMN or the
Democrats in a three-way race". He also urges the use of
the "familiarity/favorability" questions as well as fourth
party options. If the questionnaire probed the two, three,
and four-way trial heats with Muskie, Kennedy, Humphrey and
McGovern as the Democrats and Eugene McCarthy and Shirley
Chisholm as the fourth party candidates, the polling would
take two days and the results would be available on the
third day. A suggested questionnaire is attached.
However, there are several other possible areas that could
be substituted for the trial heat questions.
You suggested that the public's interest in defense expenditures
should be probed by asking whether they would be "willing to
maintain a strong defense even if it meant giving up programs
for other things, etc.". This area is being explored by the
Harris Family Issues-In Depth Poll, the results of which
are due this week. These Harris questions are attached
Probablya
should you decide that comparative Comfidentially results would be useful.
Larry Higby suggested that we probe the relative strength of
dumb idea.
-2-
Agnew and Connally as Vice Presidential candidates. However,
he made this suggestion before the Harris results of September
27 which indicated that Connally was stronger (52 to 36).
Higby also suggested that questions be devised to follow-up
on the Roper "right track/wrong track" question. Many issue
results will be available from the Harris Family Issues-In
Depth Poll this week, but suggested questions are attached
nevertheless.
Dwight Chapin noted that although 25% of the people feel
quilty about the amount of time spent watching television,
he believes that the people expect their President to appear
on television and that it is their duty to watch. Suggested
questions are attached.
Safire believes it would be valuable to conduct a poll
among blacks to assess their reaction "to the Muskie statement
and the Nixon riposte".
To obtain results accurate enough to form a press release
300 blacks would have to be questioned. If the standard
1000 interview were expanded to 1200 a full 300 blacks
could be questioned resulting in an accuracy level of +7%.
The additional blacks would be harder to reach by telephone
and SO interviewing time would be four days instead of two.
The additional cost would be $3,500 to $4,000. Suggested
questions are attached.
In addition, question areas which were offered for the
Wrap-Up Poll but not asked include: Jail terms for drugs,
welfare--menial jobs, credibility of polls, government
policy and polls, SALT talks, Gallup issues ranking, envi-
ronment/pollution, revenue sharing, no fault insurance, the
U.S. Army, and approval of Vice President Agnew. Questions
in these areas with trend data are immediately available
but not attached.
Any of these additional question areas can only be added if
some of the trial heat combinations are dropped.
Recommendation:
That a Presidential popularity and trial heat poll be
conducted on October 23 and 24 so that results will be
available October 25.
Approve
Disapprove
Comment