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This file contains:
From Teeter to MacGregor RE: why to avoid registering younger voters in the 1972 election. Marked-up duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/14/1972
From Buchanan to RN RE: campaign strategizing. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/6/1972
From Teeter to Haldeman RE: thoughts on scheduling the First Family during the 1972 campaign. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicates attached. 24 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/2/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: a discussion with Teeter about McGovern's pollster, Pat Caddell. Handwritten note added by Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/1/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 46-5
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WHSF: Contested, 46-5
description
This file contains:
From Teeter to MacGregor RE: why to avoid registering younger voters in the 1972 election. Marked-up duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/14/1972
From Buchanan to RN RE: campaign strategizing. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/6/1972
From Teeter to Haldeman RE: thoughts on scheduling the First Family during the 1972 campaign. Handwritten notes added by unknown. Duplicates attached. 24 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/2/1972
From Strachan to Higby RE: a discussion with Teeter about McGovern's pollster, Pat Caddell. Handwritten note added by Higby. 1 pg. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 8/1/1972
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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46
5
8/14/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Teeter to MacGregor RE: why to
avoid registering younger voters in the 1972
election. Marked-up duplicate attached. 4
pgs.
46
5
8/6/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Buchanan to RN RE: campaign
strategizing. 2 pgs.
46
5
8/2/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Teeter to Haldeman RE: thoughts on
scheduling the First Family during the 1972
campaign. Handwritten notes added by
unknown. Duplicates attached. 24 pgs.
46
5
8/1/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Higby RE: a discussion
with Teeter about McGovern's pollster, Pat
Caddell. Handwritten note added by Higby.
1 pg.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Page 1 of 1
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
August 14, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
ONLY
E.O. 12085, Section 6-102
By Emp NAR. Date 6-P-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Non-Registered Youth Vote
Several questions have been iaised regarding the advisability of
registration of young voters as a result of the Gallup finding
that the President had the edge with non-registered young voters.
This question has been raised especially in the context of a pro-
posed registration drive of young military personnel. Our findings
on this subject from the second wave of campaign polls is outlined
herein.
Our data for several key states (California, New York, Michigan,
Illinois, and Pennsylvania) shows the non-registered young voters
to be voting for President Nixon at the same rate as registered
young voters:
Voters 17 to 24 Years
Non-College
College
Reg. Not Reg. Total
Reg. Not Reg.
Total
Nixon
34%
35%
35%
32%
35%
33%
McGovern
61
58
60
65
60
63
Undecided
5
6
5
3
5
4
Conclusions
We believe that any mass registration drives involving this voter
bloc such as the one proposed for low echelon military personnel
involves a great deal of risk and we would recommend against any
such efforts at this time.
in,
The Gallup studies indicate that with non-registered young voters
the President has a slight edge over McGovern. Our surveys show a
different result because our studies are drawn from our priority
states while the Gallup study uses a national sample. This means
that the Gallup national sample over-represents those areas where
we are particularly strong such as the south and farm states. In
-2-
making a decision on whether to have a mass registration drive the
differing samples become important. We would expect military voters
to reflect the same voting patterns as voters in their home state.
If the Gallup finding is true for the entire country, this would
still not help us in states where we are running poorly with young
voters, such as New York and California. Therefore, a bad situation
would only be aggravated and we would only be helped in states
where we are already ahead.
It has been suggested, however, that military personnel will have
a greater propensity to vote for the President. This may not nec-
essarily be true among young enlisted men. The ranks of this lower
echelon are made up of men from lower socio-economic classes which
have been traditionally voting Democratic. I would expect no over-
whelming and instantaneous turnout in favor of a Republican. The
single most important factor in determining how new voters vote,
particularly non-college, is still how their parents voted.
Overall, we would recommend that no massive registration drive be
undertaken for younger voters and in particular military voters,
because our data shows this group to be composed of younger voters
who favor McGovern over Nixon by large margins in key states. We
can speculate that the attitudes of the group of military voters
are somewhat different than all young people; however, our data
generally shows that young voters as a whole are more similar as
a group than they are different. Therefore, a registration drive
aimed at this group is undertaken with a high risk that the specu-
lation of a high favorable vote for Nixon may be incorrect. Between
relying on our data versus speculation about attitudes, we suggest
that no registration drive be undertaken until contrary data
supporting the drive is uncovered.
Of course, where we can identify voters leaning for the President,
we should make every attempt to register them. However, our infor-
mation indicates this identification cannot be accomplished with
servicemen.
CONFIDENTIAL/ETES ONLY
[Iten,
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
August 14, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE. AN
CONFIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
ADMINIS MTIVE ARKING
E.O. 12085, Section 6-102
By EMP
NARS, Date 6-17-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Non-Registered Youth Vote
Several questions have been iaised regarding the advisability of
registration of young voters as a result of the Gallup finding
that the President had the edge with non-registered young voters.
This question has been raised especially in the context of a pro-
posed registration drive of young military personnel. Our findings
on this subject from the second wave of campaign polls is outlined
herein.
Our data for several key states (California, New York, Michigan,
Illinois, and Pennsylvania) shows the non-registered young voters
to be voting for President Nixon at the same rate as registered
young voters:
Voters 17 to 24 Years
Non-College
College
Reg.
Not Reg. Total
Reg. Not Reg. Total
Nixon
34%
35%
35%
32%
35%
33%
McGovern
61
58
60
65
60
63
Undecided
5
6
5
3
5
4
Conclusions
We believe that any mass registration drives involving this voter
bloc such as the one proposed for low echelon military personnel
involves a great deal of risk and we would recommend against any
such efforts at this time. %,
The Gallup studies indicate that with non-registered young voters
the President has a slight edge over McGovern. Our surveys show a
different result because our studies are drawn from our priority
states while the Gallup study uses a national sample. This means
that the Gallup national sample over-represents those areas where
we are particularly strong such as the south and farm states. In
-2-
making a decision on whether to have a mass registration drive the
differing samples become important. We would expect military voters
to reflect the same voting patterns as voters in their home state.
If the Gallup finding is true for the entire country, this would
still not help us in states where we are running poorly with young
voters, such as New York and California. Therefore, a bad situation
would only be aggravated and we would only be helped in states
where we are already ahead.
It has been suggested, however, that military personnel will have
a greater propensity to vote for the President. This may not nec-
essarily be true among young enlisted men. The ranks of this lower
echelon are made up of men from lower socio-economic classes which
have been traditionally voting Democratic. I would expect no over-
whelming and instantaneous turnout in favor of a Republican. The
single most important factor in determining how new voters vote,
particularly non-college, is still how their parents voted.
Overall, we would recommend that no massive registration drive be
undertaken for younger voters and in particular military voters,
because our data shows this group to be composed of younger voters
who favor McGovern over Nixon by large margins in key states. We
can speculate that the attitudes of the group of military voters
are somewhat different than all young, people; however, our data
generally shows that young voters as a whole are more similar as
a group than they are different. Therefore, a registration drive
aimed at this group is undertaken with a high risk that the specu-
lation of a high favorable vote for Nixon may be incorrect. Between
relying on our data versus speculation about attitudes, we suggest
that no registration drive be undertaken until contrary data
supporting the drive is uncovered.
Of course, where we can identify voters leaning for the President,
we should make every attempt to register them. However, our infor-
mation indicates this identification cannot be accomplished with
servicemen.
IDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 6, 1972
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT (Per HRH As Requested)
FROM:
PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
Have received the poll briefing and while the findings on the issue
are unexceptional, the conclusions that are drawn are wrong, I
think if I do not mistake them. Our surrogates and the Vice
President should not spend a disproportionate amount of their
time defending our record on unemployment, and economic
management. By most everyone's judgment, our record is not
considered as that good; this is our "weakest" point and a
national debate over whether we managed the economy well is
perhaps the one debate with McGovern we can lose.
Agreed that Vietnam, inflation, etc. are the crucial issues. We
can win on these issues by not SO much verbally defending our reocrd,
but by portraying McGovern as disasterous to the stock market,
disasterous to the job market with his budget cuts in defense and
space, disasterous to the security of the U.S., disasterous to the
price situation, because of his $1000 program, or his $6500 welfare
giveaway. In short, let's not so much defend our record, which is
subject to criticism, as to attack McGovern with being a clear and
present danger to the prosperity we now have.
The point is this: If the Democrats had nominated Harpo Marx, the
Teeter polls would have said Vietnam, economy, inflation are the
major issues. Would we, in a race with Harpo, talk about those
issues -- or would the winning issues rather be the manifest lack
of qualification of their candidate -- despite our record.
The decision in November and our rhetoric must not focus upon
their issues i.e., "unemployment" and the unequal economic
record of the last four years -- it must focus upon our issues --
i.e., the extremism, elitism, radicalism, kookism, of McGovern's
person, campaign, and programs, against the solid, strong,
effective leadership of the President. The first campaign described
above is the only way we can lose in 1972 -- and if I am not mistaken,
-2-
this is something close to what the Teeter folks recommend, when
they say we ought to talk up the economy, and spend an inordinate
amount of time defending our record on unemployment.
Nor should we forget the capacity of a candidate (i. e., Kennedy
and the "missile gap, 11 Goldwater and "extremism") to create
issues, on which elections turn, sometimes legitimate issues,
sometimes illegitimate. When we portray McGovern's ideas as
preposterous, foolish, and even dangerous to U.S. security and
the nation's economy, we are right now pushing against an open door --
with the media at large, as well as the country.
The campaign should turn, we should make it turn, upon the manifest
unqualification of this character and his ilk to even be in the
Presidential contest -- not whether a damn referendum in our spotty
economic performance, which talking, talking, talking about the
economy and jobs, and unemployment would make it. So, I disagree
strongly with what I view as the central thrust of recommendations
of the Teeter polls.
Buchanan
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 2, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
FIDENTIAL/EYES ONLY
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
and
NARJ,
Date
6-17-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RMT
SUBJECT:
Scheduling
As requested this is a supplemental memo summarizing
recommendations for the scheduling of the President,
President, and First Family.
I think the purpose of each appearance by the President,
with the possible exception of the very last few days of the
?
campaign should be exclusively to persuade people to vote for
him who are not now committed to do SO. Appearances by the
First Family and Vice President should be both to gain Nixon
supporters and to reinforce our current supporters.
Assuming this purpose, the President should go exclusively
?
to the large, close states and to those specific areas where
the greatest number of ticket-splitters are located. We have
done a ticket-splitting analysis by county of each of the
priority states and by ward/township for the metropolitan areas
within each of these states. This data, along with the total
vote for each area and Republican strength data has been dis-
played on maps and is available from Dan Evans in my office.
Dwight Chapin and Dave Parker have been working with Evans on
this data.
This ticket-splitter information should be, however, interpreted
along with total vote data. For example, given one area with
500,000 total votes and a ticket-splitting rate of 20% and
another area of a million total votes and a ticket-splitting
rate of 10%, I would go to the million vote area even though
they theoretically have the same number of ticket-splitters.
The large area simply has more voters who can be affected by
agree
a Presidential visit. The total number of votes we can
potentially affect should be the final determinate.
- 2 -
In my judgment this data, not the polls, should govern our
selection of sites for Presidential appearances. Polling data
then can be of some guidance in determining the subject
matter, particularly for the Vice President and First Family.
While choice of subject matter may be important in some Presidential
visits, most of the visits will be in fact national events and
should be considered national appeals to a major degree even though
they should have a local appeal.
The Presidential appearances what should be used primarily to articulate
is
it
the basic theme of the campaign, to tie that basic theme to specific
issues important in that area, and to explain how administration
policies and programs are designed to help solve the problems of
that area. I do not think we have been as successful as we might
be in communicating the fact that the purpose of the President's
policies and programs is to improve the lives of individual citizens
and not to improve the situations of various special interest groups
agree
and institutions. Members of the First Family can be particularly
effective in doing this.
For example, Mrs. Nixon and one of the girls could be very effective
in explaining to a group of suburban parents how the President's
program to stop the importation of drugs from Turkey and France is
designed to lessen the availability of drugs for their children or
gove
to explain that the reason why the President, is pressing Congress to
hold down spending is because many individual families simply cannot
afford increased taxes. Also, while the President will undoubtedly
have a number of large rallies and motorcades and I think it will
be important that he make some appearances which are covered by
television that are low keyed and allow him to talk to average
citizens, showing his concern for their problems. In these
appearances, it would be helpful if he could explain how he thinks
we should go about solving these problems.
It is difficult for me to recommend specific types of appearances
for the First Family as I do not know what events might be available
nor do I know what they do particularly well. Obviously they can be
used to cover places the President will miss and to generate enthusiasm
among our workers. I also think that they can be particularly
Right
effective in communicating the concern and compassion of the
President for the American people. They could also be effective in
communicating the President's concern and programs in areas of special
interest to the various voting blocs -- particularly women, young
voters, senior citizens, -- and to those with interest in specific
subject areas, --- health, the environment, retarded children, etc.
Regarding the Vice President, I believe that as long as we continue
Reght
to maintain a substantial lead he should be used primarily to
reinforce our voters and to say complimentary things about the
President that he cannot say himself. As long as we maintain our
but concentrate on ethics & unions many
- 3 -
lead and in light of the Eagleton fiasco, we should keep him on
positive issues and use him to attack the Democratic ticket only
agree
if it is absolutely necessary. As long as the McGovern campaign
continues to have problems and the press produces negative
comment, we ought to seize the opportunity to make the Vice President
a statesman. This would, it seems to me, take away one of the
Democrats major points of attack. None of our data indicates that
the Vice President has any large or unique constituency of his own,
independent of the President, although he is especially popular with
our own loyalists.
The following is a list of the priority states ranked by my judgment
of their importance for Presidential visits, along with the specific
areas the voting data indicates which would be most affected by a
personal appearance. Some suggested subjects and issues for emphasis
in those areas are also included.
we are not gong to Rick off"
New York
This would-be-an ideal place to
Suburban New York City
kick off the campaign and to set the
particularly Nassau, Suffolk
theme for the campaign. We should
and Queens
use Rockefeller, Buckley and Javits
at the initial appearance and
emphasize a broad appeal. New York
is the media center of the country
and visits to these areas would
cover key portions of New York,
Connecticut and New Jersey, all
priority states.
California
Both Waves I and II data indicate that
attitudes toward the President are more
good
deeply set in California than in other
grount
states. Therefore, Presidential
visits may have less impact than in
other states. This is particularly
true of campaign visits and any
visits by the President should be
Presidential in nature.
The key to California appears to be
organization and making sure we get
Right
every possible Nixon vote. This means
some visits to our own supporters for
reinforcement by the Vice President and
First Family may be useful.
Los Angeles
Los Angeles does not have as high
ticket-splitting but it is simply the
largest area. The economy is key, both
jobs and inflation.
- 4 -
San Francisco
The ticket-splitting rate is high and
(San Mateo and Marin
there is a large undecided vote.
Counties) Sacramento
Persuasive visits would have most
effect and Vietnam and environment
are very important.
San Diego
This is a strong Republican area where
we are not running as well as we should.
It is a perfect place for a speech on
national defense and why a strong
national defense is the best means to
peace.
Pennsylvania
Philadelphia
The ticket-splitting rate is not as
high as Pittsburgh but we need to do
better in the City of Philadelphia.
Some joint appearances with Rizzo and
with Spector (in Jewish areas) should
be made. Jobs, crime and drugs are
all important but we should be care-
ful of the crime issue as we are now
wrong
getting 20% of blacks and need to keep
them. Unemployment and jobs are also
(ask Rijjo
very important and would appeal to
both blacks and whites.
The President should visit this area
himself.
Pittsburgh
The entire southwestern portion of
Pennsylvania has been key to Republican
victory in this state. Allegheny County
is the media center of this area. Taxes,
crime, drugs and the environment are all
of particular interest although the tax
issue probably has the broadest appeal
to the entire region.
I also think the President should visit
Pittsburgh himself.
Harrisburg
The Vice President or First Family needs
to visit Harrisburg. It is the capitol
and Shapp is very unpopular largely due
to tax increases. Drugs are the most
important issue.
- 5 -
Not
Wilkes Barre
While I realize the President was
there, Shapp is now attacking the
President and the federal government
regularly on delivery of flood relief
services. This is a good place to
send the Vice President on a red-tape
cutting mission.
New Jersey
No New Jersey media center covers this
state with the coverage coming from
New York and Philadelphia. Issues
should be taxes and inflation.
New Jersey needs to be visited by
the Vice President and First Family
to enthuse our organization. Presidential
visits to New York and Philadelphia will
cover large portions of the state
?
through the media; however, a
Presidential visit might flatter local
citizens.
Illinois
Taxes and inflation are the most
Chicago suburbs,
important issues but we should be very
particularly in the western
careful of the tax issue in light of
and northern Cook County,
Ogilvie's low approval rating and his
DuPage and Lake County.
probable large loss. Ogilvie's
problems stem largely from a tax
increase.
Percy is running very well with young
voters and blacks in Chicago areas.
This is an ideal spot for a youth
appeal with Percy.
There is no need for the President to
go downstate.
Ohio
Jobs will have strong appeal throughout
Cleveland, western city
the industrialized northeast part of
wards, eastern suburbs ---
Ohio, and appeal to both white and
Lake and Geauga Counties.
black working voters. Government
Akron/Canton area.
spending, taxes, and revenue sharing
will tie directly to current financial
problems in Cleveland and with Mayor
Perk's main problem.
Both Akron and Canton have popular and
effective Republican mayors (John
Ballard-Akron and Stanley Cmich-Canton).
Revenue sharing is a good subject.
- 6 -
Cincinnati/Columbus
These are strong Republican areas with
low ticket-splitting. Visits whould be
made by the Vice President and First
Family. Preston Wolfe of the Columbus
Dispatch is a good friend of ours and
Columbus has new Republican mayor
(Tom Moody).
Toledo Area
Toledo has high ticket-splitting, and
the Toledo media dominates the entire
northwestern portion of the state.
Crime and environment are particularly
important issues. Support of Toledo
Blade is very important for entire
No
area and the President should spend
some time with Paul Block (publisher
else has
who is personally very interested in the
someone towin over publishers
it
environment). President could easily
do Cleveland and Toledo in the same
trip.
Dayton Area
This is a large area with high ticket-
splitting. Jobs, as tied to national
defense would be good issue as there
is considerable apprehension of the
future of Wright-Patterson and jobs
is the number one issue in the area.
The newspapers are both liberal and
Democratic.
Texas
Houston
Houston is a large area with the
highest ticket-splitting in the
state. The entire Gulf Coast has
relatively high ticket-splitting,
particularly Corpus Christi. Important
problems in Harris County are drugs
and inflation, and Harris County is
quite similar to the state as a whole.
National defense is particularly
important in the Beaumont/Port Arthur
area.
The President should go to Houston.
Dallas
Dallas has lower ticket-splitting but
there is still a large concentration
of voters. Crime and drugs are
important issues and probably could
be handled by the Vice President.
- 7 -
Midland/Odessa/Lubbock
These are relatively high ticket-
(West Central Texas)
splitting areas and should be visited
by someone but not necessarily the
President. Taxes and national
defense are important issues.
Amarillo
This area has high ticket-splitting
but does not have a particularly large
concentration of voters. There are
a great number of older voters,
particularly concerned with health
care. Mrs. Nixon could handle this
area and subject matter very well.
Michigan
The President should visit both
Detroit suburbs, particularly
western Wayne County and Oakland County
western Wayne and Macomb
emphasizing jobs and the revitalization
Counties.
of the economy. Taxes is an important
issue, however, there is a property tax
relief proposal on the ballot in
November sponsored by Governor
Milliken. Governor Milliken is very
popular in the City of Detroit.
7 P. at busing shed proog
Bussing might be best handled by
Attorney General Kleindeinst or the
Vice President to discuss intervention
in bussing law suit. Bussing visit
should be to western Wayne or Macomb
Flint/Saginaw/Bay minuty City
counties.
This area has high ticket-splitting and
the media here also covers the populous
thumb area (Saginaw/Bay City). Taxes,
and particularly property taxes for
education is by far the most important
issue. This area has always been very
receptive to campaigns oriented to
inflation and taxes.
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids is a large area with
moderate ticket-splitting, and we are
not doing quite as well as we should.
P
Appearances here could be handled well
by the Vice President or the First
Family. The President's Welfare
Reform proposals would be popular.
Note:
Environmental concern about the Great
Lakes is important here and throughout
Michigan.
- 8 -
Maryland
Baltimore County
Personal safety and drugs are by far
the most important issues.
Montgomery County
This is a high ticket-splitting area
and deserves some independent attention.
It might be useful to use one of the
surrogates from outside Washington
along with First Family.
Connecticut
These counties have the most people
Hartford & Fairfield
and the highest ticket-splitting.
Counties
Jobs and unemployment particularly in
the Hartford area are important.
Personal safety and drugs have special
concern in Fairfield County. It is
probably useful to give Connecticut,
particularly New York suburbs some
independent attention by First Family
from New York City.
CONFIDENTIAL /EYES ONLY
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 2, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
EYES
ONLY
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
NARS, Date 6-17-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RUNT
SUBJECT:
Scheduling
As requested this is a supplemental memo summarizing my
recommendations for the scheduling of the President, Vice
President, and First Family.
I think the purpose of each appearance by the President,
with the possible exception of the very last few days of the
campaign should be exclusively to persuade people to vote for
him who are not now committed to do SO. Appearances by the
First Family and Vice President should be both to gain Nixon
supporters and to reinforce our current supporters.
Assuming this purpose, the President should go exclusively
to the large, close states and to those specific areas where
the greatest number of ticket-splitters are located. We have
done a ticket-splitting analysis by county of each of the
priority states and by ward/township for the metropoliten areas
within each of these states. This data, along with the total
vote for each area and Republican strength data has been dis-
played on maps and is available from Dan Evans in my office.
Dwight Chapin and Dave Parker have been working with Evans on
this data.
This ticket-splitter information should be, however, interpreted
along with total vote data. For example, given one area with
500,000 total votes and a ticket-splitting rate of 20% and
another area of a million total votes and a ticket-splitting
rate of 10%, I would go to the million vote area even though
they theoretically have the same number of ticket-splitters.
The large area simply has more voters who can be affected by
a Presidential visit. The total number of votes we can
potentially affect should be the final determinate.
- 2 -
In my judgment this data, not the polls, should govern our
selection of sites for Presidential appearances. Polling data
then can be of some guidance in determining the subject
matter, particularly for the Vice President and First Family.
While choice of subject matter may be important in some Presidential
visits, most of the visits will be in fact national events and
should be considered national appeals to a major degree even though
they should have a local appeal.
The Presidential appearances should be used primarily to articulate
the basic theme of the campaign, to tie that basic theme to specific
issues important in that area, and to explain how administration
policies and programs are designed to help solve the problems of
that area. I do not think we have been as successful as we might
be in communicating the fact that the purpose of the President's
policies and programs is to improve the lives of individual citizens
and not to improve the situations of various special interest groups
and institutions. Members of the First Family can be particularly
effective in doing this.
For example, Mrs. Nixon and one of the girls could be very effective
in explaining to a group of suburban parents how the President's
program to stop the importation of drugs from Turkey and France is
designed to lessen the availability of drugs for their children or
to explain that the reason why the President, is pressing Congress to
hold down spending is because many individual families simply cannot
afford increased taxes. Also, while the President will undoubtedly
have a number .of large rallies and motorcades and I think it will
be important that he make some appearances which are covered by
television that are low keved and allow him to talk to average
citizens, showing his concern for their problems. In these
appearances, it would be helpful if he could explain how he thinks
we should go about solving these problems.
It is difficult for me to recommend specific types of appearances
for the First Family as I do not know what events might be available
nor do I know what they do particularly well. Obviously they can be
used to cover places the President will miss and to generate enthusiasm
among our workers. I also think that they can be particularly
effective in communicating the concern and compassion of the
President for the American people. They could also be effective in
communicating the President's concern and programs in areas of special
interest to the various voting blocs -- particularly women, young
voters, senior citizens, --- and to those with interest in specific
subject areas, -- health, the environment, retarded children, etc.
Regarding the Vice President, I believe that as long as we continue
to maintain a substantial lead he should be used primarily to
reinforce our voters and to say complimentary things about the
President that he cannot say himself. As long as we maintain our
- 3 -
lead and in light of the Eagleton fiasco, we should keep him on
positive issues and use him to attack the Democratic ticket only
if it is absolutely necessary. As long as the McGovern campaign
continues to have problems and the press produces negative
comment, we ought to seize the opportunity to make the Vice President
a statesman. This would, it seems to me, take away one of the
Democrats major points of attack. None of our data indicates that
the Vice President has any large or unique constituency of his own,
independent of the President, although he is especially popular with
our own loyalists.
The following is a list of the priority states ranked by my judgment
of their importance for Presidential visits, along with the specific
areas the voting data indicates which would be most affected by a
personal appearance. Some suggested subjects and issues for emphasis
in those areas are also included.
New York
This would be an ideal place to
Suburban New York City
kick off the campaign and to set the
particularly Nassau, Suffolk
theme for the campaign. We should
and Queens
use Rockefeller, Buckley and Javits
at the initial appearance and
emphasize a broad appeal. New York
is the media center of the country
and visits to these areas would
cover key portions of New York,
Connecticut and New Jersey, all
priority states.
California
Both Waves I and II data indicate that
attitudes toward the President are more
deeply set in California than in other
states. Therefore, Presidential
visits may have less impact than in
other states. This is particularly
true of campaign visits and any
visits by the President should be
Presidential in nature.
The key to California appears to be
organization and making sure we get
every possible Nixon vote. This means
some visits to our own supporters for
reinforcement by the Vice President and
First Family may be useful.
Los Angeles
Los Angeles does not have as high
ticket-splitting but it is simply the
largest area. The economy is key. both
jobs and inflation.
- 4 -
San Francisco
The ticket-splitting rate is high and
(San Mateo and Marin
there is a large undecided vote.
Counties) Sacramento
Persuasive visits would have most
effect and Vietnam and environment
are very important.
San Diego
This is a strong Republican area where
we are not running as well as we should.
It is a perfect place for a speech on
national defense and why a strong
national defense is the best means to
peace.
Pennsylvania
Philadelphia
The ticket-splitting rate is not as
high as Pittsburgh but we need to do
better in the City of Philadelphia.
Some joint appearances with Rizzo and
with Spector (in Jewish areas) should
be made. Jobs, crime and drugs are
all important but we should be care
ful of the crime issue as we are now
getting 20% of blacks and need to keep
them Unemployment and jobs are also
very important and would appeal to
both blacks and whites.
The President should visit this area
himself.
Pittsburgh
The entire southwestern portion of
Pennsylvania has been key to Republican
victory in this state. Allegheny County
is the media center of this area. Taxes,
crime, drugs and the environment are all
of particular interest although the tax
issue probably has the broadest appeal
to the entire region.
I also think the President should visit
Pittsburgh himself
Harrisburg
The Vice President or First Family needs
to visit Harrisburg. It is the capitol
and Shapp is very unpopular largely due
to tax increases. Drugs are the most
important issue.
- 5 -
Wilkes Barre
While I realize the President was
there, Shapp is now attacking the
President and the federal government
regularly on delivery of flood relief
services. This is a good place to
send the Vice President on a red-tape
cutting mission.
New Jersey
No New Jersey media center covers this
state with the coverage coming from
New York and Philadelphia. Issues
should be taxes and inflation.
New Jersey needs to be visited by
the Vice President and First Family
to enthuse our organization. Presidential
visits to New York and Philadelphia will
cover large portions of the state
through the media; however, a
Presidential visit might flatter local
citizens.
Illinois
Taxes and inflation are the most
Chicago suburbs,
important issues but we should be very
particularly in the western
careful of the tax issue in light of
and northern Cook County,
Ogilvie's low approval rating and his
DuPage and Lake County.
probable large loss. Ogilvie's
problems stem. largely from a tax
increase.
Percy is running very well with young
voters and blacks in Chicago areas.
This is an ideal spot for a youth
appeal with Percy.
There is no need for the President to
go downstate.
Ohio
Jobs will have strong appeal throughout
Cleveland, western city
the industrialized northeast part of
wards, eastern suburbs --
Ohio, and appeal to both white and
Lake and Geauga Counties.
black working voters. Government
Akron/Canton area.
spending, taxes, and revenue sharing
will tie directly to current financial
problems in Cleveland and with Mayor
Perk's main problem.
Both Akron and Canton have popular and
effective Republican mayors (John
Ballard-Akron and Stanley Cmich-Canton).
Revenue sharing is a good subject.
- 6 -
Cincinnati/Columbus
These are strong Republican areas with
low ticket-splitting. Visits whould be
made by the Vice President and First
Family. Preston Wolfe of the Columbus
Dispatch is a good friend of ours and
Columbus has new Republican mayor
(Tom Moody)
Toledo Area
Toledo has high ticket-splitting, and
the Toledo media dominates the entire
northwestern portion of the state.
Crime and environment are particularly
important issues. Support of Toledo
Blade is very important for entire
area and the President should spend
some time with Paul Block (publisher
who is personally very interested in the
environment). President could easily
do Cleveland and Toledo in the same
trip.
Dayton Area
This is a large area with high ticket-
splitting. Jobs, as tied to national
defense would be good issue as there
is considerable apprehension of the
future of Wright-Patterson and jobs
is the number one issue in the area.
The newspapers are both liberal and
Democratic.
Texas
Houston
Houston is a large area with the
highest ticket-splitting in the
state. The entire Gulf Coast has
relatively high ticket-splitting,
particularly Corpus Christi. Important
problems in Harris County are drugs
and inflation, and Harris County is
quite similar to the state as a whole.
National defense is particularly
important in the Beaumont/Port Arthur
area.
The President should go to Houston.
Dallas
Dallas has lower ticket-splitting but
there is still a large concentration
of voters. Crime and drugs are
important issues and probably could
be handled by the Vice President.
- 7 -
Midland/Odessa/Lubbock
These are relatively high ticket-
(West Central Texas)
splitting areas and should be visited
by someone but not necessarily the
President. Taxes and national
defense are important issues.
Amarillo
This area has high ticket-splitting
but does not have a particularly large
concentration of voters. There are
a great number of older voters,
particularly concerned with health
care. Mrs. Nixon could handle this
area and subject matter very well.
Michigan
The President should visit both
Detroit suburbs, particularly
western Wayne County and Oakland County
western Wayne and Macomb
emphasizing jobs and the revitalization
Counties.
of the economy. Taxes is an important
issue, however, there is a property tax
relief proposal on the ballot in
November sponsored by Governor
Milliken. Governor Milliken is very
popular in the City of Detroit.
Bussing might be best handled by
Attorney General Kleindeinst or the
Vice President to discuss intervention
in bussing law suit. Bussing visit
should be to western Wayne or Macomb
counties.
Flint/Saginaw/Bay City
This area has high ticket-splitting and
the media here also covers the populous
thumb area (Saginaw/Bay City). Taxes,
and particularly property taxes for
education is by far the most important
issue. This area has always been very
receptive to campaigns oriented to
inflation and taxes.
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids is a large area with
moderate ticket-splitting, and we are
not doing quite as well as we should.
Appearances here could be handled well
by the Vice President or the First
Family. The President's Welfare
Reform proposals would be popular.
Note:
Environmental concern about the Great
Lakes is important here and throughout
Michigan.
- 8 -
Maryland
Baltimore County
Personal safety and drugs are by far
the most important issues.
Montgomery County
This is a high ticket-splitting area
and deserves some independent attention.
It might be useful to use one of the
surrogates from outside Washington
along with First Family.
Connecticut
These counties have the most people
Hartford & Fairfield
and the highest ticket-splitting.
Counties
Jobs and unemployment particularly in
the Hartford area are important.
Personal safety and drugs have special
concern in Fairfield County. It is
probably useful to give Connecticut,
particularly New York suburbs some
independent attention by First Family
from New York City.
CONFIDENT AT /EYES ONLY
Committee for the Re-election of the President
MEMORANDUM
August 2, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
ONLY
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
amp
NARS, Date 6-17-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
MR. H. R. HALDEMAN
Rmt
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
SUBJECT:
Scheduling
As requested this is a supplemental memo summarizing my
recommendations for the scheduling of the President, Vice
President, and First Family.
I think the purpose of each appearance by the President,
with the possible exception of the very last few days of the
campaign should be exclusively to persuade people to vote for
him who are not now committed to do SO. Appearances by the
First Family and Vice President should be both to gain Nixon
supporters and to reinforce our current supporters.
Assuming this purpose, the President should go exclusively
to the large, close states and to those specific areas where
the greatest number of ticket-splitters are located. We have
done a ticket-splitting analysis by county of each of the
priority states and by ward/township for the metropolitan areas
within each of these states. This data, along with the total
vote for each area and Republican strength data has been dis-
played on maps and is available from Dan Evans in my office.
Dwight Chapin and Dave Parker have been working with Evans on
this data.
This ticket-splitter information should be, however, interpreted
along with total vote data. For example, given one area with
500, 000 total votes and a ticket-splitting rate of 20% and
another area of a million total votes and a ticket-splitting
rate of 10%, I would go to the million vote area even though
they theoretically have the same number of ticket-splitters.
The large area simply has more voters who can be affected by
a Presidential visit. The total number of votes we can
potentially affect should be the final determinate.
- 2 -
In my judgment this data, not the polls, should govern our
selection of sites for Presidential appearances. Polling data
then can be of some guidance in determining the subject
matter, particularly for the Vice President and First Family.
While choice of subject matter may be important in some Presidential
visits, most of the visits will be in fact national events and
should be considered national appeals to a major degree even though
they should have a local appeal.
The Presidential appearances should be used primarily to articulate
the basic theme of the campaign, to tie that basic theme to specific
issues important in that area, and to explain how administration
policies and programs are designed to help solve the problems of
that area. I do not think we have been as successful as we might
be in communicating the fact that the purpose of the President's
policies and programs is to improve the lives of individual citizens
and not to improve the situations of various special interest groups
and institutions. Members of the First Family can be particularly
effective in doing this.
For example, Mrs. Nixon and one of the girls could be very effective
in explaining to a group of suburban parents how the President's
program to stop the importation of drugs from Turkey and France is
designed to lessen the availability of drugs for their children or
to explain that the reason why the President is pressing Congress to
hold down spending is because many individual families simply cannot
afford increased taxes. Also, while the President will undoubtedly
have a number .of large rallies and, motorcades and I think it will
be important that he make some appearances which are covered by
television that are low keyed and allow him to talk to average
citizens, showing his concern for their problems. In these
appearances, it would be helpful if he could explain how he thinks
we should go about solving these problems.
It is difficult for me to recommend specific types of appearances
for the First Family as I do not know what events might be available
nor do I know what they do particularly well. Obviously they can be
used to cover places the President will miss and to generate enthusiasm
among our workers. I also think that they can be particularly
effective in communicating the concern and compassion of the
President for the American people. They could also be effective in
communicating the President's concern and programs in areas of special
interest to the various voting blocs -- particularly women, young
voters, senior citizens, -- and to those with interest in specific
subject areas, -- health, the environment, retarded children, etc.
Regarding the Vice President, I believe that as long as we continue
to maintain a substantial lead he should be used primarily to
reinforce our voters and to say complimentary things about the
President that he cannot say himself. As long as we maintain our
- 3 -
lead and in light of the Eagleton fiasco, we should keep him on
positive issues and use him to attack the Democratic ticket only
if it is absolutely necessary. As long'as the McGovern campaign
continues to have problems and the press produces negative
comment, we ought to seize the opportunity to make the Vice President
a statesman. This would, it seems to me, take away one of the
Democrats major points of attack. None of our data indicates that
the Vice President has any large or unique constituency of his own,
independent of the President, although he is especially popular with
our own loyalists.
The following is a list of the priority states ranked by my judgment
of their importance for Presidential visits, along with the specific
areas the voting data indicates which would be most affected by a
personal appearance. Some suggested subjects and issues for emphasis
in those areas are also included.
New York
This would be an ideal place to
Suburban New York City
kick off the campaign and to set the
particularly Nassau, Suffolk
theme for the campaign. We should
and Queens
use Rockefeller, Buckley and Javits
at the initial appearance and
emphasize a broad appeal. New York
is the media center of the country
and visits to these areas would
cover key portions of New York,
Connecticut and New Jersey, all
priority states.
California
Both Waves I and II data indicate that
attitudes toward the President are more
deeply set in California than in other
states. Therefore, Presidential
visits may have less impact than in
other states. This is particularly
true of campaign visits and any
visits by the President should be
Presidential in nature.
The key to California appears to be
organization and making sure we get
every possible Nixon vote. This means
some visits to our own supporters for
reinforcement by the Vice President and
First Family may be useful.
Los Angeles
Los Angeles does not have as high
ticket-splitting but it is simply the
largest area. The economy is key, both
jobs and inflation.
- 4 -
San Francisco
The ticket-splitting rate is high and
(San Mateo and Marin
there is a large undecided vote.
Counties) Sacramento
Persuasive visits would have most
effect and Vietnam and environment
are very important.
San Diego
This is a strong Republican area where
we are not running as well as we should.
It is a perfect place for a speech on
national defense and why a strong
national defense is the best means to
peace.
Pennsylvania
Philadelphia
The ticket-splitting rate is not as
high as Pittsburgh but we need to do
better in the City of Philadelphia.
Some joint appearances with Rizzo and
with Spector (in Jewish areas) should
be made. Jobs, crime and drugs are
all important but we should be care-
ful of the crime issue as we are now
getting 20% of blacks and need to keep
them. Unemployment and jobs are also
very important and would appeal to
both blacks and whites.
The President should visit this area
himself.
Pittsburgh
The entire southwestern portion of
Pennsylvania has been key to Republican
victory in this state. Allegheny County.
is the media center of this area. Taxes,
crime, drugs and the environment are all
of particular interest although the tax
issue probably has the broadest appeal
to the entire region.
I also think the President should visit
Pittsburgh himself.
Harrisburg
The Vice President or First Family needs
to visit Harrisburg. It is the capitol
and Shapp is very unpopular largely due
to tax increases. Drugs are the most
important issue.
- 5 -
Wilkes Barre
While I realize the President was
there, Shapp is now attacking the
President and the federal government
regularly on delivery of flood relief
services. This is a good place to
send the Vice President on a red-tape
cutting mission.
New Jersey
No New Jersey media center covers this
state with the coverage coming from
New York and Philadelphia. Issues
should be taxes and inflation.
New Jersey needs to be visited by
the Vice President and First Family
to enthuse our organization. Presidential
visits to New York and Philadelphia will
cover large portions of the state
through the media; however, a
Presidential visit might flatter local
citizens.
Illinois
Taxes and inflation are the most
Chicago suburbs,
important issues but we should be very
particularly in the western
careful of the tax issue in light of
and northern Cook County,
Ogilvie's low approval rating and his
DuPage and Lake County.
probable large loss. Ogilvie's
problems stem largely from a tax
increase.
Percy is running very well with young
voters and blacks in Chicago areas.
This is an ideal spot for a youth
appeal with Percy.
There is no need for the President to
go downstate.
Ohio
Jobs will have strong appeal throughout
Cleveland, western city
the industrialized northeast part of
wards, eastern suburbs --
Ohio, and appeal to both white and
Lake and Geauga Counties.
black working voters. Government
Akron/Canton area.
spending, taxes, and revenue sharing
will tie directly to current financial
problems in Cleveland and with Mayor
Perk's main problem.
Both Akron and Canton have popular and
effective Republican mayors (John
Ballard-Akron and Stanley Cmich-Canton).
Revenue sharing is a good subject.
- 6 -
Cincinnati/Columbus
These are strong Republican areas with
low ticket-splitting. Visits whould be
made by the Vice President and First
Family. Preston Wolfe of the Columbus
Dispatch is a good friend of ours and
Columbus has new Republican mayor
(Tom Moody).
Toledo Area
Toledo has high ticket-splitting, and
the Toledo media dominates the entire
northwestern portion of the state.
Crime and environment are particularly
important issues. Support of Toleco
Blade is very important for entire
area and the President should spend
some time with Paul Block (publisher
who is personally very interested in the
environment). President could easily
do Cleveland and Toledo in the same
trip.
Dayton Area
This is a large area with high ticket-
splitting. Jobs, as tied to national
defense would be good issue as there
is considerable apprehension of the
future of Wright-Patterson and jobs
is the number one issue in the area.
The newspapers are both liberal and
Democratic.
Texas
Houston
Houston is a large area with the
highest ticket-splitting in the
state. The entire Gulf Coast has
relatively high ticket-splitting,
particularly Corpus Christi. Important
problems in Harris County are drugs
and inflation, and Harris County is
quite similar to the state as a whole.
National defense is particularly
important in the Beaumont/Port Arthur
area.
The President should go to Houston.
Dallas
Dallas has lower ticket-splitting but
there is still a large concentration
of voters. Crime and drugs are
important issues and probably could
be handled by the Vice President.
- 7 -
Midland/Odessa/Lubbock
These are relatively high ticket-
(West Central Texas)
splitting areas and should be visited
by someone but not necessarily the
President. Taxes and national
defense are important issues.
Amarillo
This area has high ticket-splitting
but does not have a particularly large
concentration of voters. There are
a great number of older voters,
particularly concerned with health
care. Mrs. Nixon could handle this
area and subject matter very well.
Michigan
The President should visit both
Detroit suburbs, particularly
western Wayne County and Oakland County
western Wayne and Macomb
emphasizing jobs and the revitalization
Counties.
of the economy. Taxes is an important
issue, however, there is a property tax
relief proposal on the ballot in
November sponsored by Governor
Milliken. Governor Milliken is very
popular in the City of Detroit.
Bussing might be best handled by
Attorney General Kleindeinst or the
Vice President to discuss intervention
in bussing law suit. Bussing visit
should be to western Wayne or Macomb
counties.
Flint/Saginaw/Bay City
This area has high ticket-splitting and
the media here also covers the populous
thumb area (Saginaw/Bay City). Taxes,
and particularly property taxes for
education is by far the most important
issue. This area has always been very
receptive to campaigns oriented to
inflation and taxes.
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids is a large area with
moderate ticket-splitting, and we are
not doing quite as well as we should.
Appearances here could be handled well
by the Vice President or the First
Family.- The President's Welfare
Reform proposals would be popular.
Note:
Environmental concern about the Great
Lakes is important here and throughout
Michigan.
- 8 -
Maryland
Baltimore County
Personal safety and drugs are by far
the most important issues.
Montgomery County
This is a high ticket-splitting area
and deserves some independent attention.
It might be useful to use one of the
surrogates from outside Washington
along with First Family.
Connecticut
These counties have the most people
Hartford & Fairfield
and the highest ticket-splitting.
Counties
Jobs and unemployment particularly in
the Hartford area are important.
Personal safety and drugs have special
concern in Fairfield County. It is
probably useful to give Connecticut,
particularly New York suburbs some
independent attention by First Family
from New York City.
CONT
/EVES
ONLY
[Item N-6]
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
August 1, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
LARRY HIGBY
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
Thank Need the
G
SUBJECT:
McGovern's Pollster
Discussion with Bob Teeter last night disclosed the
following preliminary information regarding Pat Caddell,
McGovern's pollster:
suchmor
1) Pat Caddell owns his own polling company, a small
outfit called Cambridge Research Group;
2) However, Cambridge Research Group uses a fairly
standard list of Democratic supervisors to do the
actual interviewing;
3) Caddell also works for Kelly, the candidate opposing
Griffin in Michigan, so Teeter will have access to
Caddell's questionnaire;
4)
Teeter believes that Caddell also may be using
Quayle for some of the interviewing;
5)
Teeter doubts that Caddell uses as much open-ended
questions as he claims in his press interviews;
6) He does not use as much "scaling" as we do;
7) Instead, many of the questions that Caddell uses are
similar to the Harris Domestic Issue Poll of last
September -- that is, one general question followed
up by three or four specific;
8) Much of Caddell's interviewing is done by telephone
because the massive samples (11,000) indicate that
it would be impossible to pay for full field inter-
views;
9) Teeter will pursue the question of the type of polling
Caddell does and will report to us in one week. He
says there is almost no risk of him being discovered.