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From Teeter to MacGregor RE: conclusions on the campaign and suggestions for moving forward resulting from the third wave of campaign polling. Duplicate attached. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/29/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Higby and Strachan's meeting with Tom Benham on using him for independent polling. Handwritten note added by Higby. Duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/27/1972
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WHSF: Contested, 46-7
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This file contains:
From Teeter to MacGregor RE: conclusions on the campaign and suggestions for moving forward resulting from the third wave of campaign polling. Duplicate attached. 12 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/29/1972
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Higby and Strachan's meeting with Tom Benham on using him for independent polling. Handwritten note added by Higby. Duplicate attached. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 7/27/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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46
7
9/29/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Teeter to MacGregor RE: conclusions
on the campaign and suggestions for moving
forward resulting from the third wave of
campaign polling. Duplicate attached. 12
pgs.
46
7
7/27/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Strachan to Haldeman RE: Higby and
Strachan's meeting with Tom Benham on
using him for independent polling.
Handwritten note added by Higby.
Duplicate attached. 4 pgs.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Page 1 of 1
[Item N-1]
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
September 29, 1972
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
CONFIDENTI + EYES ONLY
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By omp
NARS, Date 6-17-80
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER
RUNT
SUBJECT:
Wave III Polling Summary
This memorandum summarizes our conclusions and recommendations
from the Wave III polls.
BALLOT DATA
The President increased his margin over McGovern nationally and
in all of the priority states during the late summer and early
fall. This was due both to an increase in support for the President
and to a sharp decline in support for McGovern. The President enjoys
close to a 2-1 lead in all of the major states. He also has a
2-1 lead over McGovern with those who have definitely made up their
mind.
The largest share of the increase has come from a decrease in McGovern
strength and an increase in Nixon support with Democrats and ticket-
splitters. The President's margin increased with most demographic
groups. There was not any particular pattern to the increase other
than is explained by theshift in voting behavior groups.
Although we now have substantial leads in all of the priority states we
can divide them into Priority I and Priority II states on the basis
of the relative size of our lead, past voting behavior, and potential
volatility.
I
II
New York
Illinois
California
Ohio
Michigan
Texas
Wisconsin
Maryland
Missouri
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
- 2 -
With the President's large lead nationally and in the priority
states we obviously have the opportunity to win by a very large
margin nationally and to carry those states which we had previously
written off. They are:
Minnesota
West Virginia
Washington
Rhode Island
Oregon
Massachusetts
ISSUES
Vietnam
Vietnam continues to be the single most important issue and is
the issue on which the President has a considerable advantage
over McGovern. We should continue to use this advantage.
Inflation
Inflation is the one issue that has increased significantly in
terms of importance to voting. This was one of our major weaknesses
in Wave II and while the President's ratings are up, it is still a
soft spot and one which we should continue to try and harden up.
Apparently some action and a lot of jawboning is working, and it
should be continued particularly by Rumsfeld. Food prices are still
the key with 56% naming them as the major element of inflation, 71%
not believing the rise of food prices has been slowed and 65% supporting
a freeze.
Unemployment
As long as the rate of unemployment declines, this issue should
not be a problem. Our third wave data did show that we may be
able to improve our position on this issue and firm up some of our
blue collar support, by talking about jobs. The word "jobs" is
apparently synonymous with prosperity and good times.
Taxes
Tax reform is our greatest potential vulnerability. As expected, the
great majority of voters think the tax structure is unfair to the
average voter and most think federal taxes are the least fair.
Voters are equally divided as to whether the major problem is the
tax structure itself or loopholes. However, both of these. groups
think the major problem is that business and wealthy individuals are
not paying their share.
- 3 -
Although more people think the President would do the most to
reform taxes over the next four years than think McGovern would,
the President is still seen to be a long way from the people on this
issue. The only reason this issue is not costing us votes now is
McGovern's lack of credibility on any issue whatsoever. We may be
able to reduce the possibility of a problem on taxes by attacking
the McGovern welfare program as sure to increase taxes and raise
prices.
A further aspect of the tax issue is our perceived failure to
actively pursue tax reform. This reinforces McGovern's claim that
the President is beholden to special interests.
If I were advising McGovern from our data, I would advise him to
hammer us directly on inflation and tax reform, and very little
else. These are the only issues he has a hope of pulling back
some of our blue-collar Democratic support.
Crime and Drugs
These issues have increased slightly in importance on this poll.
The most important element of them is personal safety. People seem
to feel that crime is closing in on them regardless of where they
live and are becoming increasingly afraid that they will become a
victim. There is very high believability that the rise in crime is
drug related.
National Defense
I think the President is spending too large a proportion of his
time talking about national defense. It continues to be rated 7th
or 8th in terms of importance to voting and a large majority think
we should cut defense spending. It is also an issue that voters have
a hard time relating to their daily lives.
I am not advocating we abandon talking about defense only that we
put more emphasis on domestic issues, especially those where we can
translate administration programs into how we did something for the
average citizen.
Amnesty
We are in perfect position on amnesty right now. We should be
careful not to say or do anything that would change our position
but I do think we should stay away from it altogether for a while.
Virtually all of the drop in the Harris poll was with 18-24 year
olds and they are on the opposite side of this issue. We now
appear to have everyone we are going to get on this issue and only
risk losing some people, particularly youngers, if we continue to
emphasize it and take harder and harder positions.
- 4 -
CANDIDATE PERCEPTION
Nixon
There has not been any significant change in the personal perception
of the President. However, the data does support the hypothesis that
the President's personal credibility is higher than that of the federal
governments' and that it would be possible to separate him from the
bureaucracy and attack the credibility of it. His ratings on credi-
bility are also somewhat higher than McGovern's.
Federal
Government
Nixon
McGovern
Always frank and truthful
13
23
18
Tries to make things more
favorable than they are
41
42
34
Holds back and slants
38
28
28
Don't know/No opinion
8
7
21
The President's ratings on his handling of all issues have increased
on all of the major issues except crime and drugs and they have fallen
off only slightly (3-5%). His greatest increase in positive ratings
has been on inflation where 6% more people rate the President's
performance positively than did in June. This was one of his weaknesses
in June and he has now recovered about half of the drop he suffered
between January and June.
McGovern
The number of people who rate McGovern's ability to handle the issues
positively has decreased on every issue and the number who rate his
handling negatively has increased by approximately 15% on every issue.
McGovern's greatest problem is his inconsistency and flip-flops on
the important issues. This has cost him his credibility and any
perception of competence he ever had. Words most often used to
describe McGovern are confused, mixed-up and not qualified. Our
attack should be directed primarily at this weakness, particularly
the confused element. Sixty-six percent of the comments about McGovern
on our open end question were negative compared to only 31% positive.
This is probably an indication that the perception of him personally
and of his ability to handle the Presidency are so negative and well
set he can't recover.
Generally speaking McGovern is perceived as handling all of the issues
equally poorly. As we have discussed in other memos, McGovern's
general issue handling is similar to a personality dimension and on on
which he scores very poorly.
- 5 -
CAMPAIGN IMPLICATIONS
During the past few months the President's committed vote has
increased from 43-44% to 60-64%. Undoubtedly a portion of the new
support is anti-McGovern and people who are not particularly for Nixon.
Many of these people are Democratic leaning ticket-splitters and
Democrats who are now being cross-pressured as they don't particularly
want to be for either McGovern or Nixon. Past research has shown that
when people are in this situation with regard to a decision there is
a point at which they can easily be moved either way. I suspect we
have past this point with some but are at it with a larger number as
we come into the period where the election becomes the major topic of
public interest. It is at this time when those who have recently
switched or are on the edge are the greatest consumers of facts and
reasons to justify their decision. This means we should make sure our
public pronouncements and advertising are a fairly even mix of anti-
McGovern and pro-Nixon. We need to keep the reasons people are against
McGovern before them, but at the same time give them some positive.
reinforcement to make them more sure and feel better about their decision
to vote for the President.
Our anti-McGovern promotions should emphasize the following aspects:
1) His positions are confusing and contradictory. We should
continue to point out that he is apparently unable to think
through a problem and come up with a workable solution.
2) In discussing the McGovern welfare proposal we have much
more to gain by indicating that it will require higher taxes.
The welfare chislers argument is not as effective as the
pocketbook approach.
3) We. should emphasize the inflationary and tax increasing
aspects of each of McGovern's proposals. There should be
several well researched effective surrogate attack speeches in
this area.
Our pro-Nixon efforts should emphasize:
1) How the President's programs and policies help the average
citizen particularly with regard to economic issues. This can be
done with respect to all "average people" and with specific
groups such as older people.
2) The unique quality of the man and his ability to deal with a
broad range of complex problems. We should emphasize his
ability to make tough decisions in a rational manner.
3) His vast experience and accomplishments in foreign affairs.
We should continue to make comparisons between the President and
McGovern in this area. Two ideas we should get across are "can
you picture McGovern negotiating in China or Russia" and "help
him finish the job". Some of our commercials do a good job of
this.
- 6 -
The pro-Nixon and anti-McGovern promotions should continue in
high ticket-splitting areas and in those areas where we have substantial
Democratic support.
We have experienced some slippage with young voters and to minimize
our loss, we should avoid amnesty, marijuana and abortion. We should
continue to be careful in handling demonstrators and re-emphasize that
the President is the one who is ending the draft and that he is the
one that enfranchized young voters.
Because we can expect McGovern to pick up a few points in the
national polls as undecided Democrats drift back to him, we should
capitalize on it. This might be done by having a campaign spokesman,
such as yourself, make some "off-the-cuff" remarks that he would expect
McGovern to gain some ground as no candidate has yet finished with
30% and then we can interpret whatever McGovern gain that occurs as
normal and expected.
The key to a large share of voter decision has been a comparison of
the qualifications and competence of the two men rather than because
of specific issue positions taken by the two candidates. We should
do everything we can to emphasize these differences and to use the
issues to prove it.
TOH
9/30
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT
MEMORANDUM
September 29, 1972
CONFIDENTIAL EYES ONLY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
THE HONORABLE CLARK MacGREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT M. TEETER Runt
SUBJECT:
Wave III Polling Summary
This memorandum summarizes our conclusions and recommendations
from the Wave III polls.
BALLOT DATA
The President increased his margin over McGovern nationally and
in all of the priority states during the late summer and early
fall. This was due both to an increase in support for the President
and to a sharp decline in support for McGovern. The President enjoys
close to a 2-1 lead in all of the major states. He also has a
2-1 lead over McGovern with those who have definitely made up their
mind.
The largest share of the increase has come from a decrease in McGovern
strength and an increase in Nixon support with Democrats and ticket-
splitters. The President's margin increased with most demographic
groups. There was not any particular pattern to the increase other
than is explained by the shift in voting behavior groups.
Although we now have substantial leads in all of the priority states we
can divide them into Priority I and Priority II states on the basis
of the relative size of our lead, past voting behavior, and potential
volatility.
I
II
New York
Illinois
California
Ohio
Michigan
Texas
Wisconsin
Maryland
Missouri
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
- 2 -
With the President's large lead nationally and in the priority
states we obviously have the opportunity to win by a very large
margin nationally and to carry those states which we had previously
written off. They are:
Minnesota
West Virginia
Washington
Rhode Island
Oregon
Massachusetts
ISSUES
Vietnam
Vietnam continues to be the single most important issue and is
the issue on which the President has a considerable advantage
over McGovern. We should continue to use this advantage.
Inflation
Inflation is the one issue that has increased significantly in
terms of importance to voting. This was one of our major weaknesses
in Wave II and while the President's ratings are up, it is still a
soft spot and one which we should continue to try and harden up.
Apparently some action and a lot of jawboning is working, and it
should be continued particularly by Rumsfeld. Food prices are still
the key with 56% naming them as the major element of inflation, 71%
not believing the rise of food prices has been slowed and 65% supporting
a freeze.
Unemp loyment
As long as the rate of unemployment declines, this issue should
not be a problem. Our third wave data did show that we may be
able to improve our position on this issue and firm up some of our
blue collar support, by talking about jobs. The word "jobs" is
apparently synonymous with prosperity and good times.
Taxes
Tax reform is our greatest potential vulnerability. As expected, the
great majority of voters think the tax structure is unfair to the
average voter and most think federal taxes are the least fair.
Voters are equally divided as to whether the major problem is the
tax structure itself or loopholes. However, both of these groups
think the major problem is that business and wealthy individuals are
not paying their share.
- 3 -
Although more people think the President would do the most to
reform taxes over the next four years than think McGovern would,
the President is still seen to be a long way from the people on this
issue. The only reason this issue is not costing us votes now is
McGovern's lack of credibility on any issue whatsoever. We may be
able to reduce the possibility of a problem on taxes by attacking
the McGovern welfare program as sure to increase taxes and raise
prices.
A further aspect of the tax issue is our perceived failure to
actively pursue tax reform. This reinforces McGovern's claim that
the President is beholden to special interests.
If I were advising McGovern from our data, I would advise him to
hammer us directly on inflation and tax reform, and very little
else. These are the only issues he has a hope of pulling back
some of our blue-collar Democratic support.
Crime and Drugs
These issues have increased slightly in importance on this poll.
The most important element of them is personal safety. People seem
to feel that crime is closing in on them regardless of where they
live and are becoming increasingly afraid that they will become a
victim. There is very high believability that the rise in crime is
drug related.
National Defense
I think the President is spending too large a proportion of his
time talking about national defense. It continues to be rated 7th
or 8th in terms of importance to voting and a large majority think
we should cut defense spending. It is also an issue that voters have
a hard time relating to their daily lives.
I am not advocating we abandon talking about defense only that we
put more emphasis on domestic issues, especially those where we can
translate administration programs into how we did something for the
average citizen.
Amnesty
We are in perfect position on amnesty right now. We should be
careful not to say or do anything that would change our position
but I do think we should stay away from it altogether for a while.
Virtually all of the drop in the Harris poll was with 18-24 year
olds and they are on the opposite side of this issue. We now
appear to have everyone we are going to get on this issue and only
risk losing some people, particularly youngers, if we continue to
emphasize it and take harder and harder positions.
- 4 -
CANDIDATE PERCEPTION
Nixon
There has not been any significant change in the personal perception
of the President. However, the data does support the hypothesis that
the President's personal credibility is higher than that of the federal
governments' and that it would be possible to separate him from the
bureaucracy and attack the credibility of it. His ratings on credi-
bility are also somewhat higher than McGovern's.
Federal
Government
Nixon
McGovern
Always frank and truthful
13
23
18
Tries to make things more
favorable than they are
41
42
34
Holds back and slants
38
28
28
Don't know/No opinion
8
7
21
The President's ratings on his handling of all issues have increased
on all of the major issues except crime and drugs and they have fallen
off only slightly (3-5%). His greatest increase in positive ratings
has been on inflation where 6% more people rate the President's
performance positively than did in June. This was one of his weaknesses
in June and he has now recovered about half of the drop he suffered
between January and June.
McGovern
The number of people who rate McGovern's ability to handle the issues
positively has decreased on every issue and the number who rate his
handling negatively has increased by approximately 15% on every issue.
McGovern's greatest problem is his inconsistency and flip-flops on
the important issues. This has cost him his credibility and any
perception of competence he ever had. Words most often used to
describe McGovern are confused, mixed-up and not qualified. Our
attack should be directed primarily at this weakness, particularly
the confused element. Sixty-six percent of the comments about McGovern
on our open end question were negative compared to only 31% positive.
This is probably an indication that the perception of him personally
and of his ability to handle the Presidency are so negative and well
set he can't recover.
Generally speaking McGovern is perceived as handling all of the issues
equally poorly. As we have discussed in other memos, McGovern's
general issue handling is similar to a personality dimension and on on
which he scores very poorly.
- 5 -
CAMPAIGN IMPLICATIONS
During the past few months the President's committed vote has
increased from 43-44% to 60-64%. Undoubtedly a portion of the new
support is anti-McGovern and people who are not particularly for Nixon.
Many of these people are Democratic leaning ticket-splitters and
Democrats who are now being cross-pressured as they don't particularly
want to be for either McGovern or Nixon. Past research has shown that
when people are in this situation with regard to a decision there is
a point at which they can easily be moved either way. I suspect we
have past this point with some but are at it with a larger number as
we come into the period where the election becomes the major topic of
public interest. It is at this time when those who have recently
switched or are on the edge are the greatest consumers of facts and
reasons to justify their decision. This means we should make sure our
public pi,onouncements and advertising are a fairly even mix of anti-
McGovern and pro-Nixon. We need to keep the reasons people are against
McGovern before them, but at the same time give them some positive.
reinforcement to make them more sure and feel better about their decision
to vote for the President.
Our anti-McGovern promotions should emphasize the following aspects:
1) His positions are confusing and contradictory. We should
continue to point out that he is apparently unable to think
through a problem and come up with a workable solution.
2) In discussing the McGovern welfare proposal we have much
more to gain by indicating that it will require higher taxes.
The welfare chislers argument is not as effective as the
pocketbook approach.
3) We. should emphasize the inflationary and tax increasing
aspects of each of McGovern's proposals. There should be
several well researched effective surrogate attack speeches in
this area.
Our pro-Nixon efforts should emphasize:
1) How the President's programs and policies help the average
citizen particularly with regard to economic issues. This can be
done with respect to all "average people" and with specific
groups such as older people.
2) The unique quality of the man and his ability to deal with a
broad range of complex problems. We should emphasize his
ability to make tough decisions in a rational manner.
3) His vast experience and accomplishments in foreign affairs.
We should continue to make comparisons between the President and
McGovern in this area. Two ideas we should get across are "can
you picture McGovern negotiating in China or Russia" and "help
him finish the job". Some of our commercials do a good job of
this.
- 6 -
The pro-Nixon and anti-McGovern promotions should continue in
high ticket-splitting areas and in those areas where we have substantial
Democratic support.
We have experienced some slippage with young voters and to minimize
our loss, we should avoid amnesty, marijuana and abortion. We should
continue to be careful in handling demonstrators and re-emphasize that
the President is the one who is ending the draft and that he is the
one that enfranchized young voters.
Because we can expect McGovern to pick up a few points in the
national polls as undecided Democrats drift back to him, we should
capitalize on it. This might be done by having a campaign spokesman,
such as yourself, make some "off-the-cuff" remarks that he would expect
McGovern to gain some ground as no candidate has yet finished with
30% and then we can interpret whatever McGovern gain that occurs as
normal and expected.
The key to a large share of voter decision has been a comparison of
the qualifications and competence of the two men rather than because
of specific issue positions taken by the two candidates. We should
do everything we can to emphasize these differences and to use the
issues to prove it.
[Item N-27
THE WHITE HOUSE
Ms
WASHINGTON
bate holdon the
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
Benham
July 27, 1972
L.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
G
SUBJECT:
Independent Polling Capability
Higby and I met with Tom Benham on July 21 to discuss his
proposal for an independent polling capability for key
state and national surveys for exclusive use here at the
White House. Benham's proposal, attached at Tab A, offers
a day-by-day polling capability similar to one of the three
systems 1701 is considering. Teeter's description of the
current plans by 1701 for daily polling is attached at
Tab B.
Benham's proposal would cover more than the requirements
you anticipate. He offers a daily, continuous interview-
ing of set questions for trend purposes with the capability
to substitute any group of questions immediately. Benham's
most balanced alternative with capability in each of the
key states as well as nationally would cost 183,000. This
capability is probably what 1701 should establish, though
Teeter has a resistance to ORC, which he claims is based
on their excessive costs. ORC is, by the way, more expen-
sive than Chilton, which has offered to conduct a national
telephone survey of 1,000 interviews for 7,500 instead of
the 8,000 ORC charges. However, ORC's reliability, confi-
dentiality, and trend information has precluded serious
consideration of Chilton.
To prevent the waste and duplication of establishing two
systems, I propose the following solution:
1) Direct Teeter to establish the 1701 daily polling
capability at ORC. The cost may be slightly higher and
Teeter may resist this intrusion on his authority to make
campaign polling decisions, but the advantages of reliability
and security outweigh the negatives;
- 2 -
2) Arrange privately with Benham (without Teeter's
knowledge) to have the additional capacity to accommodate
the White House requirements of 10-12 national (sample
based either on 50 states or on the 10 key states) and
individual key state polls. Benham estimates the cost of
this additional capability would be 12,000 to install lines
and then 8,500 per survey. The per survey cost is 500
higher because of additional overtime and staff costs of
producing results in one day;
3) The only duplication of White House and 1701 equip-
ment would be a Xerox Telecopier (commercial alternative
to Dex). ORC and the other vendors have this capability.
This would cost 50 per month to rent, but would permit
the quick transmission of written materials. Kehrli con-
firms the 150 is available;
4) Payment for the 1701 capability would be made in
accordance within the approved budget system. Payment
of the 100,000 cost of the ORC independent polling capa-
bility could be delayed until after November 7. This
would prevent disclosure to anyone at 1701 as well as the
general public due to the campaign spending legislation.
Approve general idea; Strachan work out details
with Teeter and Benham.
Disapprove.
Other.
ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL
July 27, 1972
MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. R. HALDEMAN
FROM:
GORDON STRACHAN
SUBJECT:
Independent Polling Capability
Higby and I met with Tom Benham on July 21 to discuss his
proposal for an independent polling capability for key
state and national surveys for exclusive use here at the
White House. Benham's proposal, attached at Tab A, offers
a day-by-day polling capability similar to one of the three
systems 1701 is considering. Teeter's description of the
current plans by 1701 for daily polling is attached at
Tab B.
lenham's preposal would cover more than the requirements
ou antici He offers a daily, continuous interview-
0.g of set prestions for trend purposes with the capability
1:) cubstitues any group of questions immediately. Benham's
mossibelanc alternative with capability in each of the
key well as nationally would cost 183,000. This
capal lity in probably what 1701 should establish, though
Teeter has resistance to ORC, which he claims is based
on their e: usive costs. ORC is, by the way, more expen-
give than C ton, which has offered to conduct a national
telephone street of 1,000 interviews for 7,500 instead of
the 8,000 ORC charges. However, ORC's reliability, confi-
dentiality, and trend information has precluded serious
consideration of Chilton.
To prevent the waste and duplication of establishing two
systems, I propose the following solution:
1) Direct Teeter to establish the 1701 daily polling
capability at ORC. The cost may be slightly higher and
Teeter may resist this intrusion on his authority to make
campaign polling decisions, but the advantages of reliability
and security outweigh the negatives;
- 2 -
Annange privately with Benham (without Teeter's
) to have the additional capacity to accommodate
bite Couse requirements of 10-12 national (sample
either on 50 states or on the 10 key states) and
twicenal key state polls. Benham estimates the cost of
itional capability would be 12,000 to install lines
then 8,500 per survey. The per survey cost is 500
Lecause of additional overtime and staff costs of
producing results in one day,
The only duplication of White House and 1701 equip-
vuld be a Xerox Telecopier (commercial alternative
:, ORC and the other vendors have this capability.
hold cost 50 per month to rent, but would permit
transmission of written materials. Kehrli con-
the
150 is available,
4)
sent for the 1701 capability would be made in
acu
within the approved budget system, Payment
of
100,000 cost of the ORC independent polling capa-
bilit
could be delayed until after November 7. This
woul
vent disclosure to anyone at 17.01 as well as the
gene
olic Cue to the campaign spending legislation.
wove general idea, Strachan work out details
with Teet and Benham.
Disapprove,
Other.
GS/jb