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From Khachigian to Magruder RE: Analysis of Political Behavior-Prospects for '72. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/19/1971
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From Khachigian to Magruder RE: Analysis of Political Behavior-Prospects for '72. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 2/19/1971
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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48
12
2/19/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Magruder RE: Analysis
of Political Behavior-Prospects for '72. 2
pgs.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Page 1 of 1
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
February 19, 1971
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
NARS, Date
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
KEN MR. KHACHIGIAN MAGRUDER Dec
SUBJECT:
ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL
BEHAVIOR: PROSPECTS FOR '72
The attached analysis does not lend itself to any easy answers.
I'll approach it on two fronts. First, assuming the theory is
correct, what should we do to implement this suggestion? Second,
is the theory correct?
If party alignment will control this election as well as major
elections to follow, then we should embark immediately on the
survey work which will tell us just how that party realignment
could take place; i.e., what can we do to encourage people to
change from Democrat or Independent to Republican registration?
If survey research and analysis can give us the way to achieve
party realignment, I suggest we go in that direction. Given a
good, sound analysis of how to go about the realignment, it would
not be difficult to gear our political operation in that direction.
But! I don't think party alignment will determine the election of
1972. Moreover, our first concern is not party realignment or
making the party strong, but to re-elect Richard Nixon. Winning
that election will come through the conventional appeal to current
Republicans; an appeal on the record to Independents; and an appeal
to the disillusioned Democrats who feel their party has deserted them.
- 2 -
It is only after elections that major changes in party alignment
take place. A case in point is FDR's victory in 1932. It was after
the election that so many Americans turned away from the
Republicans to the Democrats. And they turned away largely
because of what they perceived Roosevelt doing for them. Hence,
the huge realignment of Black voters who before had been Republican.
Thus, if any realignment is going to take place, it will take place
only after Richard Nixon is re-elected and not before. It will take
place only if there are factors which encourage that type of re-
alignment; that is to say, if Republicans can demonstrate that they
offer more to the Nation than do the Democrats. That will depend
on issue-presentation and issue-resolution -- two processes which
are just beginning.
So, what I am suggesting is that we keep our eye on the doughnut
and not on the hole. There is going to be no great party realignment
before the decade is over. It will be a slow process, barring
historical aberrations. What we can do is communicate to the public,
via the President, that his reforms and policies amount to the kind
of fundamental change on which realignments are built. If we can
communicate this, then we might be able to start the slow process
of party realignment.
But the process is slow, and if we gear up an election based on the
thesis of party alignment, we're going to lose sight of the real goal
of 1972; that is, winning an election.