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From Khachigian to Buchanan RE; 1972 Democratic Primaries. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/3/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: 1972 State Primaries and Democrats. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/19/1971
The 1972 Presidential Campaign in New York. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Thoughts Toward 1972. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/10/1971
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From Khachigian to Buchanan RE; 1972 Democratic Primaries. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/3/1971
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: 1972 State Primaries and Democrats. 14 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 11/19/1971
The 1972 Presidential Campaign in New York. 2 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], no date
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Thoughts Toward 1972. 6 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 9/10/1971
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
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Document Description
48
16
12/3/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE; 1972
Democratic Primaries. 3 pgs.
48
16
11/19/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: 1972
State Primaries and Democrats. 14 pgs.
48
16
Campaign
Report
The 1972 Presidential Campaign in New
York. 2 pgs.
48
16
9/10/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Thoughts
Toward 1972. 6 pgs.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Page 1 of 2
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
48
16
9/10/1971
Campaign
Memo
From Khachigian to Buchanan RE: Thoughts
Toward 1972. 6 pgs.
48
16
7/26/1971
Campaign
Memo
From McWhorter to Flemming RE:
Information and Comments from Recent
Meetings of Western Governors, Midwestern
Governors, GOP State Chairmen and
Republican National Committee. 21 pgs.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Page 2 of 2
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
December 3, 1971
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
By
NARJ, Date
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
SUBJECT: THE 1972 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
While it's not possible to make a rock-hard prediction of the full
primary route for the Democrats, I think we have enough information
to look at the first four big ones and give some idea of the scenario
through Wisconsin.
The New Hampshire primary falls on March 7 -- after the with-
drawal deadlines for Illinois, Florida and Wisconsin. Thus, anyone
going into New Hampshire will at least have to go into Wisconsin and
Florida (where Secretary of States have discretion as to who goes on
the ballot) and possibly into Illinois (where the primary is opening up
this year).
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire is Muskie's. Jackson has pulled out because the
polls showed him with nothing. That leaves Yorty and McGovern who
at this point will be Muskie's only opponents. The key here is to insist
that Muskie must do better than RN's 1968 showing to call New Hampshire
a victory. Yorty will get around 20% with Bill Loeb's endorsement and
McGovern a hard-core 15% based on some polling recently reported.
FLORIDA
I believe at this point that Florida is going to be an indecisive
primary -- but one that still benefits Muskie. The Florida ballot will
probably include: Muskie, McGovern, Jackson, Shirley Chisholm,
George Wallace, Sam Yorty, Hubert Humphrey, John Lindsay and
Eugene McCarthy.
Page 2
The big story in Florida will probably be the poor showing of
Scoop Jackson. It's long been my feeling supported most recently
by Evans-Novak and several polls that Jackson is going nowhere.
In Florida, his appeal will be lost under Wallace's frank hard-line
appeals in the northern part of the state.
Shirley Chisholm, McGovern, Lindsay and McCarthy will split the
libs and blacks in Florida. Humphrey will probably have a small bloc
by virtue of his endorsement by Miami mayor David Kennedy, Yorty
a fringe, and Muskie picking up 25-35% enough for a close margin
of victory. If there's no big victory there for Muskie, at least there's
no great loss either.
ILLINOIS
Illinois is opening up its primary for the first time -- allowing
presidential hopefuls to have their names alongside the candidates
for convention delegates in each Congressional district. No one has
yet planned to run anybody in opposition to the delegates in Chicago --
still Daley's. But both McGovern and Muskie plan to run delegates in
other districts and conceivably could pick up about as many delegates
as will Daley. Yet, I can't picture Daley giving up total control of his
delegation and thus think that he wi 11 try to get a majority SO he still
has control in Miami. Nevertheless, Muskie has an excellent oppor-
tunity to get committed to him upwards of 35% of the Illinois delegation.
WISCONSIN
All early primaries eventually lead to Wisconsin on April 4 where
the Secretary of State has discretion as to who goes on the ballot and
affidavits of non-candidacy are required to get off the ballot.
It looks promising for Muskie right now. McGovern, Lindsay and
McCarthy will all probably be on the ballot along with Humphrey, Jackson
and Shirley Chisholm. The liberals will again divide the kids and the left.
Humphrey has some residual strength in Wisconsin but surely not enough
to win more than one or two districts. Jackson has no source of strength
in Wisconsin and I call it a wash for Scoop.
So again, it looks like Muskie, with at least one article I read giving
him as many as 8 out of 10 districts. He will, of course, have great
strength in Milwaukee and wherever else large Polish enclaves exist.
Plus, there is something about the solid Ed image that sells in Wisconsin.
Page 3
A Wisconsin victory for Muskie, added to earlier leads in the
first primaries makes a solid position for Big Ed going into the
others. It will really almost go by default to the extent that his
opponents will not be able to muster significant showings through
Wisconsin. And if no large candidate emerges to oppose him, Muskie
will reap enormous psychological victories in Wisconsin, probably
loosen up some money, and be on his way to other primaries.
After Wisconsin, a brand new analysis will be necessary. Things
will have changed sufficiently to let us make some final plans. More
will then be known about EMK and we can start giving some thought to
the Southern primaries as well as Oregon and California.
Please note, per Tab A, that the various dates of the primaries still
makes them crowded and hopefully confused enough so that even though
Muskie is winning, he won't have the nomination locked up via the pri-
maries and that a bloody Miami is still possible. For example, the
Florida primary comes after the withdrawal deadlines for Illinois,
Rhode Island, Massachusetts (subject to change), Pennsylvania, Wis-
consin, and Nebraska.
And by the Wisconsin primary, the withdrawal deadlines for
Nebraska, Tennessee, Indiana, South Dakota, North Carolina and
Maryland will have passed. Thus, every one of those primaries are
likely to be littered with names even if candidates are withdrawing
after Wisconsin. And it's to our benefit to keep those primaries
crowded (even to the extent of asking Republican Secretaries of State
to keep Democrats on the ballot) SO as to make each of Muskie's
victories indecisive.
My recommendation: Higher ups should give some immediate
attention to this information and sanction our ongoing analysis here.
No one really seems to be giving serious attention to what is happening
in the other camp (at least in terms of slogging through all the state
laws), yet what happens with the Dems is, for now, equally important
as what happens to us.
TAB B
A ROUGH OUTLINE OF THE PRIMARIES AFTER WISCONSIN
Rhode Island follows Wisconsin and is insignificant in size and
impact. Massachusetts, for now, is scheduled next. Governor Sargent
recently vetoed a bill which would have given EMK control over his
delegation, and now it is winner take all, making the big delegation
a valuable one. Our intelligence, however, shows that EMK's people
are introducing new legislation which would push the filing deadline
into March instead of February, thus giving Teddy maneuvering room
should he want to run. If he does, he will go after Massachusetts first
and have a good start towards the nomination.
Pennsylvania now is a district by district vote, but their law is in
the legislature, and it still might change. It's hard to guess what will
happen considering the expected fight between Shapp, Rizzo and the
machine boys, and we still simply don't have enough information to
make a prediction.
Indiana comes next on May 2 and is marginally important.
Vance Hartke is talking about running, and if so, will cause the
others problems. Lindsay has been there and he may get Gordon St.
Angelo's support and try for a comeback after Wisconsin aiming at
the constituency that made RFK popular in 1968. It's too early to call.
Ohio is also on May 2, but a Gilligan favorite son bid is pre-
dicted which will limit the impact. Look for Gilligan getting his
fingers burned a la Jim Rhodes.
North Carolina is also on May 2, and that could be a most im-
portant primary vis 'a vis the South. Moreover, Tennessee follows
North Carolina on May 4. Together, these two primaries will tell
a great story for us and might be Scoop's last gasp.
North Carolina and Tennessee are important to those candidates
who intend to take more of a centrist Dem line -- the old FDR
coalition. Muskie, Jackson, Mills, Chisholm and Wallace will
probably grace those ballots. Lindsay and McGovern have no choice
but to go on the Tennessee ballot if they are in Wisconsin (secretary
of state discretion). Humphrey may be there as well, and he needs
a good showing to be credible.
Muskic's support is good in North Carolina, and Scoop is devoting
great attention there. But Wallace will give them headaches as he
will in Tennessee, and William Anderson might be in Tennessee to
confuse things. I give North Carolina to Muskie the right being
split by Wallace, Jackson and Mills if they are all there. Chisholm
will take the blacks and some liberals and McGovern might get 10 votes.
Page 2
If Muskie wins North Carolina after having won Wisconsin, he
has a strong argument for saying he does well in all sections of the
country - - it will help him immensely.
Tennessee's too hard to call right now. Muskie's organization
and strength there is not legend, and Wallace will have strong support.
Tennessee will most likely have on its ballot all those who were on the
Florida ballot and maybe more. That makes it look more like Florida
a toss-up with little national impact and no convincing delegate support
picked up.
Note: Wallace should not be discouraged in these primaries
because he will detract from the others. Keeping Muskie's margin
down in the South is important.
Nebraska, West Virginia, and Maryland are the next three, but
are hardly kingmaker in character. Nebraska will be the most con-
tentious with a heavy ballot, but who will pay attention with Oregon
two weeks away?
Finally, to Oregon, where everyone will be on the ballot. They
can't get off. Even Teddy will probably be OD that ballot. This could
be a fun and games primary. Even if Teddy decides he wants in, he's
not all that popular in Oregon (cf. McCarthy VS. RFK in '68), and he's
way behind Muskic in the polls. In fact, Muskie is leading with an
extremely comfortable margin in Oregon.
Now Oregon is supposed to be Scoop's back yard, but he's not
doing too hot there, running last in recent poll. The vote will be split
every which way, and right now I pick Muskie even if he only gets 40%.
That won't hurt him, because he will have come into Oregon with a
substantially successful primary record. Oregon can only be the saving
grace for other candidates -- maybe Lindsay or Jackson, or even
McCarthy again. But don't count on it. The final prize is in California.
If there is any hunger for the nomination by any Democrat, he
will go into California with every thing he's got. California is "winner
take all." That's why Humphrey has really made serious moves there,
and why I think he is going to make California his make or break state.
He has financial backing and old ties there. And while the cats are away,
HHH just might make some headway stumping the Golden state.
Page 3
But it's not that easy. Lindsay will probably make one last fling
in California. Muskie will pour on the steam. Jackson, by now will
have lost his taste. I predict he'll be out by California (remember,
you saw it here first). McGovern can't pass up California if he's come
this far (unless Teddy goes for it). McCarthy shouldn't be expected
to do too much there. The real light is EMK. The filing deadline is
March 24 enough to get off ballots in other states, but to get in
California. If Wisconsin makes it look like the liberals have had it
but that RN still might be beatable, then EMK might swoop up the
Kennedy torch and run for daylight.
Without Kennedy, California becomes fair Muskie game.
Humphrey could make a good showing, and Lindsay and McGovern
will split the left. I would again pick Muskie. If Kennedy is in,
I give the state and all its delegates to him.
The last three primaries, New Mexico, South Dakota and New
Jersey are on the same day as California, June 6. All attention
will be on California and those other three states will just be a
matter of who splits the delegates.
What this all means is that Muskie goes into convention with the
most primary delegates and the best showing in the primaries. But
it will be the delegates not selected in the primaries and the delegates
controlled by favorite sons that still hold the balance at the convention.
At that time all the IOU's will come in.
The important thing for Muskie is his primary momentum and his
ability to something decent in the South. If he showed this, I think he
has the nomination. But I don't think he will get it on the first ballot.
I think there will be hedging on the first ballot with a comfortable lead
to Muskie. But even if it takes two or three ballots, it still comes out
Muskie.
That's the scenario I see now, but it can change tomorrow. I
repeat: On the morning of April 5, I think we can make more solid
judgments on how things will look from there. But until then, we are
going on gut instincts.
This information needs to be digested and periodically reviewed.
Thought must be given to what we want our Republican Secretaries
of State to do in the various states. And finally, an ongoing strategy
to exacerbate Democratic differences has to be evolved out of what
we know.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISTRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 12065, Section 6-102
November 19, 1971
By
NARS, Date
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
SUBJECT: THE 1972 PRIMARIES AND THE DEMOCRATS
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Candidates have a filing deadline of February 3 for a primary on
March 7. To get out, the candidate must withdraw within 10 days of
receipt of candidacy, i.e. by February 13 (assuming the filing is
complete on February 3). This leaves enough time to also file an
affidavit taking his name off the ballot in Florida (which has a with-
drawal deadline of noon, February 15).
So, for example, if McGovern sputters and wants out after New
Hampshire, he can do it in time to get his name off the Florida ballot
and almost all the others as well.
New Hampshire Secretary of State --- Republican -- Robert L. Sturk
FLORIDA:
Candidates are placed on the ballot by a bipartisan committee - -
selecting generally advocated and nationally recognized candidates for the
office of President. February 10 is the filing deadline and noon,
February 15 is the deadline for filing their withdrawal affidavit. The
primary date is March 14.
Assume someone is on the ballot in Florida and sticks it out
through election day on March 14. This will commit him to the Wis-
consin, Nebraska and Oregon primaries for sure. It will also commit
him to the Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania
primaries if he had filed for them and possibly to the North Carolina
primary (a strange primary which is outlined below).
Page 2
What this means is that as early as Florida, candidates
will be committing themselves weeks ahead, unable to avoid
at least having their names on some more ballots.
Florida Secretary of State -- Democrat - Richard B. Stone
ILLINOIS:
The information is sketchy right now, but in essence Illinois is
now going to allow persons running for the Convention delegation to
have listed next to their names the name of their favored Presidential
candidate. The delegates are elected out of Congressional districts.
Daley will run his slate -- "uncommisted"" delegates (though
committed to him) in at least the seven districts in Chicago. As for
now, only McGovern and Muskie have indicated running their people
in other districts -- Muskie in perhaps 16 and McGovern in perhaps
a dozen.
The Illinois primary is before Wisconsin and after Florida. The
filing deadline is January 3 and the withdrawal of a candidate must come
by January 8. So a candidate could pull out of Illinois without committing
into the other primaries.
I can't imagine Daley giving up anything in Illinois if he can help
it. I would guess that he will try to control at least a majority of the
delegation, thus squeezing out some of the other candidates. It really
all depends on Daley. If he doesn't try to pick up all the marbles, then
Illinois becomes a fairly important primary. There will be too many
delegates to pass up.
Illinois Secretary of State - - Republican -- John W. Lewis
WISCONSIN:
The filing deadline is January 31, and the candidates will be
placed on the ballot by an ll-man bipartisan committee -- selecting
all nationally recognized candidates. Then the candidates - if they
want out must file an affidavit of withdrawal by February 29 for the
primary on April 4.
Page 3
If a candidate sticks it out through the Wisconsin primary he is
committed to having his name on the ballot in Tennessee, Nebraska,
Maryland and Oregon (all states where names are put on the ballot
at state's discretion), and in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Pennsyl-
vania, and Indiana if they have previously filed in those states. All
these states have withdrawal deadlines before the Wisconsin primary.
My guess is that virtually all the hopefuls will stick it out
through Wisconsin, hoping they will catch fire somewhere. This is
perfect for us because then it commits them to at least being on the
ballot in four more states Tennessee being the most important
addition since Florida even if they no longer profess candidacy.
Wisconsin Secretary of State -- Republican - - Robert Zimmerman.
PENNSYLVANIA:
The primary is on April 25 with a filing deadline of February 15.
The withdrawal deadline to get off the ballot is February 22.
A candidate may be nominated via petition in order to have his
name placed on the ballot, and his consent is not required. Only
some delegates are elected in the primary. I doubt that any
candidate's name will be entered there without his consent. However,
some candidates may choose to run there without publicly consenting.
For example, I can envision Humphrey having his name entered in the
Pennsylvania primary while publicly disavowing it. It would be a
logical place for Humphrey because of the strong old-line machine
which could get the vote out for him.
I have a gut feeling, however, that Humphrey will be in most of
the primaries from Florida onward -- and if he does marginally well,
he may pull out all the stops for the last primaries on June 6 - California,
South Dakota, New Jersey and New Mexico.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Democrat C. Delores Tucker
INDIANA:
Primary is on May 2; the filing deadline is March 23. A person
getting on the Indiana ballot must withdraw by March 27th to get off.
Thus they can get off after the New Hampshire and Florida primaries,
but not after the Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Massachusetts or Pennsyl-
vania primaries.
Indiana Secretary of State Democrat Larry Conrad
Page 4
OHIO:
The Ohio primary is May 2 and the filing deadline is February 2.
A candidate must withdraw if he wishes "any reasonable time before
the ballots are printed. 11 That is subject to interpretation, and there
is no telling how that withdrawal date would come down.
However, I don't consider Ohio crucial at this time. John
Gilligan is going to play the James Rhodes game and run as a favorite
son and control the delegation. I don't foresee him opening it up to
the others. He obviously wants to broker what he can in Miami.
Maybe he will learn what Rhodes did you can sometimes get your
fingers burned doing this.
Secretary of State -- Republican -- Ted W. Brown
NORTH CAROLINA:
The North Carolina State Board of Elections will list the generally
advocated individuals on the Presidential tallot by February 21. To get
off the ballot in North Carolina does not require any action. To the
contrary, in order to stay on, the candidate must file a notice of
candidacy and $1000. If the $1000 is not given within 15 days of listing
of candidacy, their name will be withdrawn.
The conclusion in North Carolina is simple; it really becomes like
the other primaries to the extent that any candidate who does not want
to get on the ballot there will not, even if he is a candidate in some
other state. And by this reasoning, we simply cannot tell in advance
with any degree of certainty who will be on the ballot. So scratch
North Carolina as one of those primaries where certain candidates
have to run.
North Carolina Secretary of State -- Democrat -- Thad Eure
TENNESSEE:
Anot her state where the names will go on the ballot at the discretion
of the Secretary of State. This will be done by March 9 for a May 4
primary. To get out of the Tennessee primary, a non-candidacy affidavit
must be filed 10 days after March 9 which would allow time to get off
this ballot after the Florida primary.
Of interest in Tennessee is the possible candidacy of Congressman
William Anderson (of Tiger Cage fame). Wilbur Mills might take a
Page 5
crack, and old George will surely file in Tennessee. Note that
Wallace is talking about going into both Dem and Republican pri-
maries, and I have no doubt he will. It could be rough for us as well
as for the Dems.
I consider Tennessee along with North Carolina as important
Southern and border primaries -- for us as well as the Dems. The
showings in those two states may well tell us what kind of strengths
the eventual nominees are going to have in the South and border states.
Tennessee Secretary of State -- Democrat - - Joe C. Carr
OREGON:
Oregon is the next big primary, coming on May 23 with a filing
deadline of 5:00 p.m. March 14. The names will be placed on the
ballot by the Secretary of State at his discretion. The key thing about
Oregon this time is that a candidate cannot withdraw his name from
the ballot even with an affidavit.
My guess is that Oregon is going to be chock full of Democrats - -
most of them having been committed there simply by having appeared
on the Wisconsin and Florida ballots.
Note that a research firm in Oregon found Scoop Jackson running
behind Muskie, McGovern, McCarthy, Kennedy and Humphrey. Jackson
was getting 7.8% a poor last. That's interesting because Oregon
is Scoop's back yard in the same way that New Hampshire is Muskie's
back yard. It may cause us to reassess the Jackson strength. Moreover,
Teddy Kennedy's weakness in Oregon may also urge us to get him on
the ballot there where he can't get off.
Oregon Secretary of State -- Republican -- Clay Myers
CALIFORNIA:
The primary date is June 6 and the filing deadline for candidacy
is April 7. Once a candidate gets on the ballot he cannot withdraw - -
making two big primary states in a row where the candidate cannot
withdraw.
California Secretary of State -- Democrat Edmund G. Brown, Jr.
Page 6
OBSERVATIONS:
I think it is inadvisable to predict right now how the various pri-
maries will boil down. I think by the time of the Florida primary, we
should be able to make some better judgments. However, in the
meantime, some logical scenarios can be drawn up.
New Hampshire will be a throwaway one way or the other. If
Muskie wins big, it doesn't mean much. However, I don't think his
margin will be too high, and that he will be bloodied up somewhat.
Yorty will blast him from the right and McGovern from the left.
Jackson's presence in New Hampshire likely will do little more than
establish some name identity for him. Bill Loeb will support Yorty.
Florida might well be indecisive with the winner getting 25-35%
of the vote and Wallace being right up there with a chunk of the Florida
primary. Some of this might depend on a loyalty oath, but then such
things never held back old Gawg. With McGovern, Chisholm, Jackson,
Lindsay, Muskie, McCarthy and now probably Humphrey in the show,
Florida will be a toss-up. No decisive victories in Florida, unless
Wallace comes through with a win on the strength of Northern Florida.
Illinois will not be a crucial primary because I think Daley is smart
enough to do what he can to control most of the voting for delegates.
But Wisconsin is the next one, and that, I believe, becomes the first
serious primary where we can start perceiving a trend. And right
now, I think it looks promising for Muskie. McGovern, Lindsay and
McCarthy will all probably be on the ballot. Throw in Shirley Chisholm
and that just totally confuses the left. Jackson is nowhere in Wisconsin,
and that leaves most of the chips for Big Ed (though it has been noted
that HHH might start his big push in Wisconsin).
Muskie can concede Madison and some other areas to the left, but
I see most of the rest going to him -- especially the ethnic rich
Milwaukee area. Humphrey might be the main problem right now,
but I don't think Hubert will make much of an effect in Wisconsin. If
Muskie does well in Wisconsin, money will loosen up, and he may try
to get a bandwagon psychology going for him.
Rhode Island is insignificant and Massachusetts primary law is
now perfectly suited for Teddy to control the delegation. The Massachu-
setts primary is now moot.
Page 7
Pennsylvania is next, and it is a district by district type of thing.
It depends just how much Shapp can control his own show -- which I
doubt very much because of Rizzo. With all the battling, no one is going
to pick up anything of significance in Pennsylvania. No bets there.
That brings us to Indiana, which holds its primary On May 2nd.
Indiana is of marginal importance. It could be the state where Lindsay.
tries to revive himself after a setback in Wisconsin. He may get the
support of Gordon St. Angelo, and if he does, he'll aim for the same
constituency that made RFK popular in Indiana. I expect that Jackson,
Muskie and some others will also be in Indiana, but it just simply is not
a central primary state.
Ohio is also on May 2, but I see a Gilligan favorite son bid, and
thus no real action in Ohio -- i.e., one with no psychological impact
on the other aces.
But North Carolina is also on May 2, and that could be a very
important primary vis 'a vis the South. Moreover, Tennessee
follows North Carolina on May 4. Together, these two primaries
will tell a great story for us. It may be one of the last gasps for our
friend Scoop.
North Carolina and Tennessee are important to those candidates
who intend to take more of a centrist Democrat line the old Roosevelt
coalition and maybe the Kefauver rhetoric. Muskie, Jackson, Mills,
Chisholm, and Wallace will almost certainly be on these ballots. Lindsay
and McGovern will have to be on the Tennessee ballot if they go through
Wisconsin they have no choice. Humphrey, I would guess, should
try to make some showing in one of these states to prove he has some
appeal to the South.
Muskie has good support in North Carolina, and Scoop has been
spending a great deal of time there. But George Wallace is going to
be there to give them all headaches as he will in Tennessee. And
William Anderson might be in Tennessee to confuse things especially
in his home district.
I think Muskie would win North Carolina -- the right will be split
by Jackson, Wallace, and Mills, if he's there. Shirley Chisholm will
take the Blacks and some liberals and McGovern may get 10 votes there
if he sticks with it. If Muskie wins North Carolina after having won
Wisconsin, he has a strong argument for saying that he can do well in
all sections of the country. This helps his road to the nomination
immensely. It's too hard to call Tennessee right now. But Muskie's
Page 8
organization and strength there is not legend, and George Wallace
might be the big story there. The trouble with Tennessee is that
every soul on the Wisconsin ballot goes on the Tennessee ballot and
that makes it start looking more like Florida a toss-up with little
national impact and no one picking up convincing delegate strength.
Nebraska, West Virginia, and Maryland are hardly kingmaker
states. Those are the next three primaries, and I don't expect they
will titillate Eric Sevareid. Anyway, Mandel will probably call the
shots in the Maryland primary at least he's trying.
Finally, to Oregon, where everyone will be on the ballot. They
can't get off. Even Teddy will probably be on that ballot. This could
be a fun and games primary. Even if Teddy decides he wants in, he's
not all that popular in Oregon (cf. McCarthy vs. RFK in '68), and he's
way behind M iskie in the polls. In fact, Muskie is leading with an
extremely comfortable margin in Oregon.
Now Oregon is supposed to be Scoop's back yard, but he's not
doing too hot there. The vote will be split every which way, and
right now I pick Muskie even if he only gets 40%. That won't hurt
him, because he will have come into Oregon with a substantially
successful primary record. Oregon can only be the saving grace for
other candidates maybe Lindsay or Jackson, or even McCarthy
again. But don't count on it. The real prize is in California.
If there is any hunger for the nomination by any Democrat, he
will go into California with every thing he's got. That's why Humphrey
has really made serious moves there, and why I think he is going to
make California his make or break state. He has financial backing
and old ties there. And while the cats are away, HHH just might
make some headway stumping the Golden state.
But it's not that easy. Lindsay will probably make one last fling
in California. Muskie will pour on the steam. Jackson, by now will
have lost his taste. I think he'll be out by California. McGovern
can't pass up California if he's come this far (unless Teddy goes for it).
McCarthy shouldn't be expected to do too much there. The real light
is EMK. The filing deadline is April 7 three days after Wisconsin.
If Wisconsin makes it look like the liberals have had it but that RN
still might be beatable, then EMK might swoop up the Kennedy torch
and run for daylight.
Page 9
Without Kennedy, California becomes fair Muskie game.
Humphrey could make a good showing, and Lindsay and McGovern
will split the left. I would again pick Muskie. If Kennedy is in,
I give the state and all its delegates to him.
The last three primaries, New Mexico, South Dakota and
New Jersey are on the same day as California, June 6. All attention
will be on California and those other three states will just be a
matter of who splits the delegates.
What this all means is that Muskie goes into convention with
the most primary delegates and the best showing in the primaries.
But it will be the delegates not selected in the primaries and the
delegates controlled by favorite sons that still hold the balance at
the convention. At that time all the IOU's will come in.
The important thing for Muskie is his primary momentum and
his ability to something decent in the South. If he showed this, I think
he has the nomination. But I don't think he will get it on the first
ballot. I think there will be hedging on the first ballot with a com-
fortable lead to Muskie. But even if it takes two or three ballots,
it still comes out Muskie.
That's the scenario I see now, but it can change tomorrow. I
repeat: On the morning of April 5, I think we can make some solid
judgments on how things will look from there. But until then, we
are going on gut instincts.
This information needs to be digested and periodically reviewed.
Thought must be given to what we want our Republican Secretaries
of State to do in the various states. And finally, an ongoing strategy
to exacerbate Democratic differences has to be evolved out of what
we know.
CONFIDENTIAL
DETERMINED TO BE AN
ADMINISIRATIVE MARKING
E.O. 120.5 Section 6-1.02
1971 PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARIES - WITHDRAWAL DEADLINES
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Withdrawal-within 10 days of receipt of
candidacy.
Secretary of State-Robert L. Sturk (R)
FLORIDA:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by noon,
February 15.
Secretary of State-Richard B. Stone (D)
ILLINOIS:
Withdrawal 5 days from time of filing deadline,
i.e. Jar. 8 (filing deadling Jan. 3).
Secretary of State-John W. Lewis (R)
WISCONSIN:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed the last day in
February.
Secretary of State-Robert C. Zimmerman (R)
RHODE ISLAND:
Withdrawal-January 14.
Secretary of State-August P. LaFrance (D)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Withdrawal-February 11.
Secretary of State-John F. X. Davoren (D)
PENNSYLVANIA:
Withdrawal-February 22.
Secretary of State-C. Delores Tucker (D)
INDIANA:
Withdrawal-March 23
Secretary of State-Larry Conrad (D)
OHIO:
Withdrawal "Any reasonable time before the
ballots are printed. "
Secretary of State-Ted W. Brown (R)
NORTH
CAROLINA:
Withdrawal-must give $1,000 within 15
days of notice of candidacy,
otherwise is withdrawn.
Secretary of State-Thad Eure (D)
TENNESSEE:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by the 10th
day after receipt of notice.
Secretary of State-Joe C. Carr (D)
NEBRASKA:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed by March 10.
Secretary of State-Allan J. Beermann (R)
WEST
VIRGINIA:
Withdrawal-by the 5th day prior to the primary.
Secretary of State-John D. Rockefeller IV (D)
MARYLAND:
Withdrawal-affidavit filed 45 days before primary.
Secretary of State-Fred Wineland (D)
OREGON:
Withdrawal-cannot withdraw
Secretary of State-Clay Myers (R)
CALIFORNIA:
Withdrawal-cannot withdraw
Secretary of State-Edmund G. Brown, Jr. (D)
NEW MEXICO:
Withdrawal-must give $500 within 15 days after
receipt of notice.
Secretary of State-Mrs. Betty Fiorina (D)
SOUTH DAKOTA:
Withdrawal-April 27.
Secretary of State-Alma Larson (R)
NEW JERSEY:
Withdrawal-by the 34th day before primary.
Secretary of State-Paul J. Sherwin (R)
THE 1972 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN NEW YORK STATE
The following comments might merit consideration by those people
organizing the New York State Citizens Committee for Reelection
of the President:
GOP Machinery in Manhattan
Vince Albano, Chairman of the New York Republican County Committee,
joined the GOP in the late 1950's as a convert from the Democratic
Party. He tends to side with people who win and uses a divide and
conquer strategy to maintain his position as Chairman. He is not
in a position to get a real woking majority of the Manhattan
district leaders and their clubs which would be truly effective
for the President in 1972. The GOP in Manhattan is old and tired,
has only several district leaders in their 20's or 30's and
consequently doesn't seem to have the horsepower necessary for
canvassing operations in N.Y.C. apartments. The typical N.Y.C.
resident does not react well to campaign literature received in
the mail. To succeed in Manhattan the GOP needs to revert to
the discarded building captain or election district captain concept.
There is no ouster in sight for Albano when he is up for reelection in $73
After the 1969 mayoralty primary Albano allegedly contributed
GOP county funds to the Lindsay campaign instead of Senator Marchi's
campaign. Albano's previous affection for Mayor Lindsay might well
dampen his enthusism for the President's campaign if the Mayor
should become the Democratic nominee. However, in 1968 Albano
did muster all the forces he could for the Nixon/Javits movement.
The only elected GOP official in the New York State Logislature
or U.S. House of Representatives from Manhattan is Roy M. Goodman
(State Sonator 26th District in the heart of the East Side). Goodman
is a liberal (recently voted "for" the $2. 5MMM Transportation Bond
Issue in the State Senate) and has never really faced a tough opponent.
There seems to be 2 possibility that the son of former Mayor Wagner
might run against Goodman in 1972. Goodman will certainly get all of
the manpower commitments he can; this will include Albano's concerted
efforts since Goodman has to win if Albano is to save face. Con-
sequently this effort will probably detract from the President's
campaign in Manhattan. This supposition is reinforced by the defeat
of the Bond Issue in Goodman's home district by a margin of 5 to 40
Now York State Young Republicans Clubs ssociation of)
There is no state-wide monolithic youth machinery in the GOP.
Each YR club dials through local contacts. Apparently the Key
York Republican State Committee funds the Stato YR organization,
which as a single unit was not active in 1968. The current doctrine
of the States Yes is to develop leaders not bodies, The president
of the Store Yain, Douglas C. Marth, applicably OVER his allegiance
to Glarles To Dirican, of the Writer's Republican Simes
Co. mittes. There 200 two seeong YR clubs in Manhattan: 1) Eastside
Young Republican Club and 2) New York Young Republican Club. If
approached early enough the former club might be swayed to put
all of its effort behind the President. This club has several
hundred members and a mailing list approaching 2000. Most of the
club leadership is extremely pro-Nixon. Their political forte
is literature distribution at subway stops and to a lesser degree
door-to-door canvassing. N.Y. State Senator Goodman probably will
try to get his club to commit its time to him. The club put its
efforts behind Governor Rockefeller's most recent gubernatorial
campaign. A realistic estimate of the number of active bodies that
might be mustered from this club for evening work during the week
is probably 150 at the culmination of the campaign.
Governor Rockefeller
The principal causes for the defeat of the recent $2. 5MMM Transportation
Bond Issue (1,600,000 "for" and 2,500,000 "against") seem to be:
1) An immediate distrust of a joint Rockefeller/Lindsay effort to
get the issue passed, and 2) New Yorkers are tired of paying higher
taxes, which will result anyway since the state now has a budget
deficit of $770,000,000. The Governor's reputation appears to have
been tarnished. How much his credibility with the voters has decreased
is hard to determine, but it's a good guess that his future campaign
efforts will not be as effective as they have been in the past.
There are rumors that the Governor will not run again and that he
might resign and go to Washington in a Cabinet position in an attempt
to save the family name in politics.
National, State and Local Issues of Current Interest to College
Graduates in their 20's and 30's Living in Manhattan
Ranked in apparent order of importance:
1) Cost-of-living (including taxes)
2) Environment
3) Law and Order
4) Mass transit (band-aid approach)
5) Unemployment
6) China (disappointment about Taiwan)
7) Vietnam (no longer a concern)
8) Bussing
9) Public Education
Sentiments of College Graduatos in their 20's and 30's (living in
Manhattan) toward the President
There seems to be a trend toward viewing the President more favorably
and with less suspicion than at any time since his election, although
a straw vote among this group today would probably not result in
a majority for the President vis-s-vis any
reasonable opponent.
Can the BRING 1972?
The existing GOT state organization willd PUPLOW inadequate for the
job, particularly due to the recent defeat of the Transportation
Bond Issue. However, the one individual who might be a unifying force
is Sonator Buckley. So far he donsn't appear to have alionated his
electorate, but this is countered by his lack of exposure in the
day-to-day press. Tf the
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 10, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
/
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
SUBJECT: THOUGHTS TOWARD 1972
A number of things have occurred to me regarding the 1972
elections, and here they are for what they're worth.
After all the hokum, hoopla, P.R. and direct mail, the
President is still the greatest determinative of the election results
when you get down to the nut-cutting. How do you marshall the
"Presidential Presence" to do the most good for the purpose of
re-electing RN?
1. Get a good theme and stick with it. The best one -- and that
which has already been articulated by RN is generally "What's
right in America. " But it needs a new casting or the rhetoric on
it will get stale.
Essentially, RN is placed historically at a time of great cynicism
when the fashionable left is to RN and America what the Jacobins
were to Edmund Burke and the Continent. I envision an RN who casts
himself in Burke's role, defending the wisdom and richness of our
patrimony against those who mock and defy it. Moreover, it should be
done with noble rhetoric -- clean and eloquent -- from the President.
The real America is not the racist, imperialist, rotten country that
some would have us believe but the real America includes the
hundreds of volunteers who this last summer combed the mountains
looking for a frightened little boy suffering from epilepsy and aphasia.
Or the young girl who collected thousands of food coupons to purchase
kidney machines where they were not previously available -- and the
hundreds of people who heard of her cause and sent her additional
coupons. (Anecdotal rhetoric can be highly effective)
Page 2
This is the real America. RN could light a fire under this
spirit. Because he is the President, there is a great deal to say about
a campaign filled with this kind of moral suasion. In the classical
conservative sense, RN will be the nation's bulwark against the
wreckers of social stability the defender of the very foundations
of our culture.
I have a feeling that this approach would appeal pretty much
across the spectrum -- from hard hat to suburbia - - to everyone
who feels threatened by the times and the pace of social change.
/
2. While RN defends what we have, he would be remiss to
eschew progress. To this extent, the rhetorical tool is: while
we should preserve the wealth of our heritage, we cannot be
satisfied, and we must look to enriching that heritage. One thing
for RN to convey in the campaign is the impression that great work
remains to be done -- that he isn't satisfied with what has gone by
the boards.
It won't work to say: "We've tripled spending on X, or increased
the size of Y or proposed new legislation for Z. 11 That was Lyndon
Johnson, and it would have done LBJ in if he stuck it out in 1968 --
that's a defensive trap we shouldn't fall into. Institutional departures
from the norm are o.k. when built upon a solid appreciation of the past.
Take John Lindsay - - he's always hitting out in "anger" at the
"large, powerful, often immovable forces" which guide our lives.
That's the "Secret Liberal" in Lindsay on the record he is the
"Real Liberal" depending on shopworn, orthodox solutions. What
really makes RN so unique as a President and what we have to
convey is that he is not wedded to dogma; he can and will act
with a degree of innovation.
3. Let's explore not making law and order an issue in the 1972
Presidential campaign. Why? Basically, law and order simply
might be our albatross in 1972; moreover, it tends to open the door for
the Democrats. No matter what the Democrats' record -- they
are unprincipled on this issue - - they have no compunctions about
twirling a billy club if it means getting re-elected. They read Scammon
too well and it worked exceedingly well for them in 1970. They will
fool the voters, and believe me they will get away with it.
Page 3
As for us; the public knows RN is a strong law and order type.
If we force the issue, the Dems will get pro-cop, get that issue
out of the way, and go on to the issues which they can claim as
their own. It's simply going to be too hard to tar them as soft on
criminals.
Law and order, as Scammon/Wattenberg point out is an
Executive's issue -- they point to mayors, governors and Presidents.
But the mistake they make, I believe, is that it is not a President's
issue. The President can do almost nothing (with the exception of
the District of Columbia) to lower crime rates in the country.
Voters identify local police with their mayors - Frank Rizzo can
win in Philadelphia, and RN cannot.
Simply put: Bringing down crime is not an issue which will plus
out for RN in 1972 - - people know that he can't do much about it,
so why should we risk getting stuck with the blame when crime rates
are still going up? Opening up the issue allows the Dems to do two
things: (a) point out that crime is still going up despite RN's 1968
statements, and (b) that what we have done is repressive and ineffec-
tual.
Listen to the warning words of our friend James J. Kilpatrick:
"Richard Nixon dealt with this situation in his 1968 campaign: 'We
have to stop this revolving door that spews embittered, sullen men
out onto our streets. 1 Plainly, the revolving door still spins. 11 That's
tough coming from Kilpo, but at least he shows a direction we might
take: "What to do?
it comes back to the point of beginning:
Parents, schools, churches the unseen but palpable attitudes of our
whole society. If these can be strengthened, crime can be reduced.
It's as simple, and as fearfully difficult, as that. 11
My vote is simply this: Law and order is not a suitable central
issue for the 1972 campaign. I know it is tempting to go on the attack
with this issue because people are still worried about high crime
according to the polls, but the best we can do is to emphasize (as the
AG has done in several speeches) that local law enforcement is the front
line against crime and that RN will give them the moral support
they don't get from the liberals. But beyond this, my strong recomm-
endation, from this vantage point is that law and order should be a
peripheral issue in 1972.
Page 4
At the risk of being maudlin, let me make one more argument
against the law and order issue. I'm afraid I don't have a great deal
of proof for it, but it is instinctual in character. Let's consider the
mood of the voter on election day. Remember for millions of
Americans, the Presidential election is of bland importance they
could care less. They focus on it for one day every four years; political
awareness indexes among the general electorate are usually low.
What is on their minds in early November For one thing, women
are thinking of the holidays -- Thanksgiving is only 2 1/2 weeks away
and Christmas comes right after that. They probably just as soon
not be reminded that Ed Muskie's election will result in their mugging.
The kids are back in school, the days are shorter, and the holidays
are happy times. The world series and the Olympics have just ended
two of the most permanent institutions we have. There is regularity and
stability which is fostered by these events and coupled with the thought
of stuffed turkeys, law and order rhetoric just doesn't fill the bill.
The mood is one of serenity and well-being -- people would rather not
have rapings on their minds; I think they would rather hear talk of
peace and calm in a shaken world. That comes right down the alley
for RN's strongest suit in the campaign peace, good relations with
other countries, negotiation, China and SALT initiatives. As I've
said in other memos, let's not lose sight of these strong political
issues.
4. We need to start thinking about long-range planning on this
subject of the Presidential Presence. The logical time to kick the
theme off is with the State of the Union Address. I recommend that
it should not be a conventional address filled with legislative programs
because these programs will not become issues to help us in the
campaign. Instead, I suggest RN make the State of the Union an address
to the Nation on the moral and cultural "state" or health of the Union.
This is where the theme of a "strong America" is set down. Of course,
I don't say ignore all traditional SOTU remarks, but there really ought
to be an emphasis on that theme which RN will carry to the country
for the remainder of the year. This is a chance to set the stage to
draw the rules according to how we want to play the game.
The American people like nothing better than to see their President
be Presidential solid leadership for the folks put forth with lyrical
and noble (though not turgid) rhetoric. Low-keyed eloquence will just
probably help us wipe Moderate Muskie, Haranguing Hubert and
Kinetic Kennedy off the political stage.
But the long-range thinking should look at other events which are
conducive for RN to strike his theme. Memorial day (or around there)
might be an appropriate time to start the peace and stability issue
a big speech at a proper forum would do it. July 4th might be well
to use for an address. And frankly, on Labor Day, I would send RN
to Cadillac Square in Michigan for the most unusual kick-off to a
Republican Presidential campaign.
Page 5
What good reason exists that says only Democrats can address
union members on Labor Day of election years. RN is President
of all the people, and should not be afraid of walking into any
forum. It would be highly imaginative to articulate his campaign
theme to workers across the nation who perhaps most strongly
resent the assault on America. (confronting your adversaries is
good politics the same reasoning I had when I suggested RN should
address a Black audience)
By and large, I feel that discussing several issues in 1972 will
have a minimal impact on the campaign (with the exception of peace
and the economy). Most voters have probably already locked in their
perception of the issues and will be looking for extra elements on which
to judge the candidates. It is this precise reason that Ed Muskie
is doing as well in the polls as he is. People don't really know
where he stands yet he projects an appealing imagery of steadiness
and calm. So we must ourselves give great attention to the notion of
Presidential Presence.
Some other thoughts:
In line with the above analysis, it becomes imperative that
any media campaign dwell at length with the fact that RN is President.
If I had it my way, I would not pay for any TV time to show RN on
the stump the networks will pick up the stump speech and the
crowds. As for us, our decision should be to show the President
as President. In the Lincoln sitting room, the Oval Office, the
Cabinet room, the Rose Garden, the EOB office at every instance
demonstrating to the public the President at work.
The same thoughtful speeches which were given as radio
addresse in 1968 should go on TV on at least three or four occasions
taped in different areas of the White House showing RN at his conver-
sational best. Ed Muskie is going to come on as the "great healer. 11
Muskie's only problem is that no one can heal like the President of
the United States. I would also like to see some film with the President
and his staff (the Cabinet room drug thing on ABC got good reviews
for the peck at Presidential decisionmaking). Quiet sessions with
HRH or Kissinger of Ehrlichmen. I would even suggest some sessions
with younger staff to highlight the point that RN has a great deal of
youth working for him. The main point is to impart to the public
the quict but firm President that senior staff see every day the
sense of direction and vision RN gives to his staff ought to be shared
with the voter. Besides, there is a great deal of intrigue about
seeing the President at work.
Page 6
-- The advantage we have is that we can visually prove that
RN is a heavyweight, and by implication that his opponent is a
lightweight. You don't change Captains when you've already gota
good one at the helm. In short, we ought to take the opportunity to
show the finer qualities of RN as President that the media rarely
share with the public. If they won't do it for us, we should do it.
for ourselves. An electorate which sees the Republic in firm hands
will hesitate to vote the President out of office.
The visual impact must be one of the substance of the
Presidency. We can handle attack material with our friends on the
Hill, with Dole and the State Chairmen. The Veep can be used as
well to provide some tough analysis of the opposition -- although it might
be desirable to elevate his rhetoric as well (that is a judgement which
may have to wait until the campaign itself).
But as for the President, there seems to me to be no question
about it: He is the number one campaign asset. At the beginning
of the campaign, he should open up with a nationwide address,
explaining to the public why a President traditionally must take
to the hustings -- that he will be a "partisan of principle, 11 that it is
his responsibility and privilege to carry the word to the country.
It is not divisive; it is in the American political tradition, etc.
With the ground rules laid by the President, he can stump the
country with a hearty campaign, taking the Presidency and its
considerable prestige to the people saying: we've come this far,
now let's keep going. This is leadership at its finest and politics
at its best.
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 10, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
FROM: KENNETH L. KHACHIGIAN
SUBJECT: THOUGHTS TOWARD 1972
A number of things have occurred to me regarding the 1972
elections, and here they are for what they're worth.
After all the hokum, hoopla, P.R. and direct mail, the
President is still the greatest determinative of the election results
when you get down to the nut-cutting. How do you marshall the
"Presidential Presence" to do the most good for the purpose of
re-electing RN?
1. Get a good theme and stick with it. The best one -- and that
which has already been articulated by RN -- is generally "What's
right in America. 11 But it needs a new casting or the rhetoric on
it will get stale.
Essentially, RN is placed historically at a time of great cynicism
when the fashionable left is to RN and America what the Jacobins
were to Edmund Burke and the Continent. I envision an RN who casts
himself in Burke's role, defending the wisdom and richness of our
patrimony against those who mock and defy it. Moreover, it should be
done with noble rhetoric - - clean and eloquent -- from the President.
The real America is not the racist, imperialist, rotten country that
some would have us believe -- but the real America includes the
hundreds of volunteers who this last summer combed the mountains
looking for a frightened little boy suffering from epilepsy and aphasia.
Or the young girl who collected thousands of food coupons to purchase
kidney machines where they were not previously available -- and the
hundreds of people who heard of her cause and sent her additional
coupons. (Anecdotal rhetoric can be highly effective)
Page 2
This is the real America. RN could light a fire under this
spirit. Because he is the President, there is a great deal to say about
a campaign filled with this kind of moral suasion. In the classical
conservative sense, RN will be the nation's bulwark against the
wreckers of social stability the defender of the very foundations
of our culture.
I have a feeling that this approach would appeal pretty much
across the spectrum -- from hard hat to suburbia -- to everyone
who feels threatened by the times and the pace of social change.
2. While RN defends what we have, he would be remiss to
eschew progress. To this extent, the rhetorical tool is: while
we should preserve the wealth of our heritage, we cannot be
satisfied, and we must look to enriching that heritage. One thing
for RN to convey in the campaign is the impression that great work
remains to be done that he isn't satisfied with what has gone by
the boards.
It won't work to say: "We've tripled spending on X, or increased
the size of Y or proposed new legislation for Z. 11 That was Lyndon
Johnson, and it would have done LBJ in if he stuck it out in 1968 - -
that's a defensive trap we shouldn't fall into. Institutional departures
from the norm are o.k. when built upon a solid appreciation of the past.
Take John Lindsay -- he's always hitting out in "anger" at the
"large, powerful, often immovable forces" which guide our lives.
That's the "Secret Liberal" in Lindsay - - on the record he is the
"Real Liberal" depending on shopworn, orthodox solutions. What
really makes RN so unique as a President -- and what we have to
convey is that he is not wedded to dogma; he can and will act
with a degree of innovation.
3. Let's explore not making law and order an issue in the 1972
Presidential campaign. Why? Basically, law and order simply
might be our albatross in 1972; moreover, it tends to open the door for
the Democrats. No matter what the Democrats' record they
are unprincipled on this issue - - they have no compunctions about
twirling a billy club if it means getting re-elected. They read Scammon
too well and it worked exceedingly well for them in 1970. They will
fool the voters, and believe me they will get away with it.
Page 3
As for us; the public knows RN is a strong law and order type.
If we force the issue, the Dems will get pro-cop, get that issue
out of the way, and go on to the issues which they can claim as
their own. It's simply going to be too hard to tar them as soft on
criminals.
Law and order, as Scammon/Wattenberg point out is an
Executive's issue -- they point to mayors, governors and Presidents.
But the mistake they make, I believe, is that it is not a President's
issue. The President can do almost nothing (with the exception of
the District of Columbia) to lower crime rates in the country.
Voters identify local police with their mayors - - Frank Rizzo can
win in Philadelphia, and RN cannot.
Simply put: Bringing down crime is not an issue which will plus
out for RN in 1972 people know that he can't do much about it,
SO why should we risk getting stuck with the blame when crime rates
are still going up? Opening up the issue allows the Dems to do two
things: (a) point out that crime is still going up despite RN's 1968
statements, and (b) that what we have done is repressive and ineffec-
tual.
Listen to the warning words of our friend James J. Kilpatrick:
"Richard Nixon dealt with this situation in his 1968 campaign: 'We
have to stop this revolving door that spews embittered, sullen men
out onto our streets. 1 Plainly, the revolving door still spins. " That's
tough coming from Kilpo, but at least he shows a direction we might
take: "What to do?
it comes back to the point of beginning:
Parents, schools, churches the unseen but palpable attitudes of our
whole society. If these can be strengthened, crime can be reduced.
It's as simple, and as fearfully difficult, as that. 11
My vote is simply this: Law and order is not a suitable central
issue for the 1972 campaign. I know it is tempting to go on the attack
with this issue because people are still worried about high crime
according to the polls, but the best we can do is to emphasize (as the
AG has done in several speeches) that local law enforcement is the front
line against crime and that RN will give them the moral support
they don't get from the liberals. But beyond this, my strong recomm-
endation, from this vantage point is that law and order should be a
peripheral issue in 1972.
Page 4
At the risk of being maudlin, let me make one more argument
against the law and order issue. I'm afraid I don't have a great deal
of proof for it, but it is instinctual in character. Let's consider the
mood of the voter on election day. Remember for millions of
Americans, the Presidential election is of bland importance -- they
could care less. They focus on it for one day every four years; political
awareness indexes among the general electorate are usually low.
What is on their minds in early November? For one thing, women
are thinking of the holidays -- Thanksgiving is only 2 1/2 weeks away
and Christmas comes right after that. They probably just as soon
not be reminded that Ed Muskie's election will result in their mugging.
The kids are back in school, the days are shorter, and the holidays
are happy times. The world series and the Olympics have just ended
two of the most permanent institutions we have. There is regularity and
stability which is fostered by these events and coupled with the thought
of stuffed turkeys, law and order rhetoric just doesn't fill the bill.
The mood is one of serenity and well-being people would rather not
have rapings on their minds; I think they would rather hear talk of
peace and calm in a shaken world. That comes right down the alley
for RN's strongest suit in the campaign peace, good relations with
other countries, negotiation, China and SALT initiatives. As I've
said in other memos, let's not lose sight of these strong political
issues.
4. We need to start thinking about long-range planning on this
subject of the Presidential Presence. The logical time to kick the
theme off is with the State of the Union Address. I recommend that
it should not be a conventional address filled with legislative programs
because these programs will not become issues to help us in the
campaign. Instead, I suggest RN make the State of the Union an address
to the Nation on the moral and cultural "state" or health of the Union.
This is where the theme of a "strong America" is set down. or course,
I don't say ignore all traditional SOTU remarks, but there really ought
to be an emphasis on that theme which RN will carry to the country
for the remainder of the year. This is a chance to set the stage to
draw the rules according to how we want to play the game.
The American people like nothing better than to see their President
be Presidential solid leadership for the folks put forth with lyrical
and noble (though not turgid) rhetoric. Low-keyed eloquence will just
probably help us wipe Moderate Muskie, Haranguing Hubert and
Kinetic Kennedy off the political stage.
But the long-range thinking should look at other events which are
conducive for RN to strike his theme. Memorial day (or around there)
might be an appropriate time to start the peace and stability issue
a big speech at a proper forum would do it. July 4th might be well
to use for an address. And frankly, on Labor Day, I would send RN
to Cadillac Square in Michigan for the most unusual kick to a
Republican Presidential campaign.
Page 5
What good reason exists that says only Democrats can address
union members on Labor Day of election years. RN is President
of all the people, and should not be afraid of walking into any
forum. It would be highly imaginative to articulate his campaign
theme to workers across the nation who perhaps most strongly
resent the assault on America. (confronting your adversaries is
good politics the same reasoning I had when I suggested RN should
address a Black audience)
By and large, I feel that discussing several issues in 1972 will
have a minimal impact on the campaign (with the exception of peace
and the economy). Most voters have probably already locked in their
perception of the issues and will be looking for extra elements on which
to judge the candidates. It is this precise reason that Ed Muskie
is doing as well in the polls as he is. People don't really know
where he stands yet he projects an appealing imagery of steadiness
and calm. So we must ourselves give great attention to the notion of
Presidential Presence.
Some other thoughts:
In line with the above analysis, it becomes imperative that
any media campaign dwell at length with the fact that RN is President.
If I had it my way, I would not pay for any TV time to show RN on
the stump the networks will pick up the stump speech and the
crowds. As for us, our decision should be to show the President
as President. In the Lincoln sitting room, the Oval Office, the
Cabinet room, the Rose Garden, the EOB office at every instance
demonstrating to the public the President at work.
The same thoughtful speeches which were given as radio
addresse: in 1968 should go on TV on at least three or four occasions
taped in different areas of the White House showing RN at his conver-
sational best. Ed Muskie is going to come on as the "great healer. 11
Muskie's only problem is that no one can heal like the President of
the United States. I would also like to see some film with the President
and his staff (the Cabinet room drug thing on ABC got good reviews
for the peek at Presidential decisionmaking). Quiet sessions with
HRH or Kissinger of Ehrlichmen. I would even suggest some sessions
with younger staff to highlight the point that RN has a great deal of
youth working for him. The main point is to impart to the public
the quiet but firm President that senior staff see every day the
sense of direction and vision RN gives to his staff ought to be shared
with the voter. Besides, there is a great deal of intrigue about
seeing the President at work.
Page 6
-- The advantage we have is that we can visually prove that
RN is a heavyweight, and by implication that his opponent is a
lightweight.. You don't change Captains when you've already got a
good one at the helm. In short, we ought to take the opportunity to
show the finer qualities of RN as President that the media rarely
share with the public. If they won't do it for us, we should do it.
for ourselves. An electorate which sees the Republic in firm hands
will hesitate to vote the President out of office.
The visual impact must be one of the substance of the
Presidency. We can handle attack material with our friends on the
Hill, with Dole and the State Chairmen. The Veep can be used as
well to provide some tough analysis of the opposition -- although it might
be desirable to elevate his rhetoric as well (that is a judgement which
may have to wait until the campaign itself).
But as for the President, there seems to me to be no question
about it: He is the number one campaign asset. At the beginning
of the campaign, he should open up with a nationwide address,
explaining to the public why a President traditionally must take
to the hustings -- that he will be a "partisan of principle, " that it is
his responsibility and privilege to carry the word to the country.
It is not divisive; it is in the American political tradition, etc.
With the ground rules laid by the President, he can stump the
country with a hearty campaign, taking the Presidency and its
considerable prestige to the people saying: we've come this far,
now let's keep going. This is leadership at its finest and politics
at its best.
file: Campayin 72
Send to Ken Khartigran
July 26, 1971
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Memorandum
For: Harry S. Flemming
From: charlie Morterter
Re: Information and comments from recent meetings of Western Covernors,
Midwestern Governors, GOP State Chairmen and Republican National
Committee.
INDEX
Page
Page
General Areas
1.
Economic
2
2.
Foreign Policy
2
3.
Civil Rights
3
4.
Vice President
3
5.
George Wallace
3
6.
McCloskey
4
State by State Comments
Alabama
12
Montana
20
Alaska
18
Nebraska
17
Arizona
19
Nevada
19
Arkansas
12
New Hampshire
5
California
18
New Jersey
8
Colorado
20
New Mexico
19
Connecticut
7
New York
7
Delaware
9
North Carolina
10
Dist. of Columbia
10
North Dakota
16
Florida
11
Ohio
13
Georgia
10
Oklahoma
17
Hawaii
18
Oregon
18
Idaho
21
Pennsylvania
8
Illinois
14
Rhode Island
6
Indiana
13
South Carolina
10
Iowa
16
South Dakota
15
Kansas
17
Tennessee
11
Kentucky
11
Texas
13
Louisiana
12
Utah
20
Maine
5
Vermont
5
Maryland
ID
Virginia
10
Massachusetts
6
Washington
19
Michigan
14
West Virginia
.0
Minnesota
15
Wisconsin
15
Miscissippi
12
Wyoming
20
Missouri
16
- 2 -
General Areas
1. Economic
There is almost unanimous agree ent among Republican Governors and officials
that the principle difficulties facing the Administration are in the
economic area. This "conventional wisdom" is often not well documented
or supported by specific information. For instance, a state chairman
would frequently site unemployment as a factor but not really be familiar
with the level of unemployment in his own state. Others would refer to
the fact that business was pretty good in their own areas but that this
was still a problem. I believe that a large and difficult area of the
political problem with our national economy lies := the fact that it is
reported nationally by the media in a way which exaggerates the bad news
and makes everyone conscious of difficulties. This creates worry and
concern in areas which have relatively few economic problems. As a
result, it will be highly important to get the media talking about any
general trends which indicate we are making progress in moving the
economy forward.
In terms of immediate political impact there is a defin te problem for
the group of people who are presently unemployed. In addition, there
are a large number of people whose take home pay has been reduced or
limited because of the reduction of overtime. Then there is the con-
sumer, which means everyone, who is pinched by the inflationary increase
in the cost of living. Political leaders rarely make any distinction
among these groups in discussing the adverse political impact of the
economy but, of course, all must be examined and dealt with separately.
There is wide spread agreement. however, that if the President loses
the election next year it will be primarily a result of dissatisfacti
with the Administration's economic policy. There is general agreement
that not enough people really understand the President's economic "game
plan" resulting in a high level of frustration and irritation.
A special word needs to be said about agriculture and farm problems.
No administration seems able to be successful in handling these matters
from a political standpoint, but it is imperative that this Administra-
tion move quickly to correct the impression that many farm people have
to the effect that the President is really not very much concerned about
agricultural problems and that there is nobody close to him that is in
a position to speak for the farmer. I know this must sound a little
discouraging to those who have worked SO hard to improve this situation.
However, it is clear to me that it would be extremely beneficial if a
change could be made in the Secretary of Agricult re between now and the
end of this year. Those planning the President's schedule should give
more urgent attention to invitations which would bring him close to
farming and to rural areas such as the National Flowing Contest or a
convention of REA groups.
2. Foreign Policy
There was wide spread agreement that the President had pre-empted the
Indecides issue by his dramatic announcement of a visit to Red China.
- 3 -
2. Foreign Policy (Cont'd)
Apart from Vietnam, there is little ground for complaint with the Presi-
dent's handling of foreign policy. In fact, the President's expertise
in foreign policy is regarded as his strongest asset, but there was
considerable doubt among GOP leaders whether this would be enough to
offset the adverse impact of inflation, unemployment, lack of economic
growth and specific difficulties with agriculture.
3. Civil Rights
There was wide spread agreement among GOP officials from the border and
southern states that over zealous efforts by HEW officials in devising
various desegregation schemes for public schools can be politically
disastrous. Interestingly enough, the deep south is already SO
thoroughly integrated that not much more can be done there Politically
speaking, however, efforts by HEW to come UD with massive bussing schemes
in order to achieve school integration on a rigid formula basis in the
rest of the south and border states would be a political disaster and
would create deep bitterness and racial animosities which would also be
counter productive in achieving overall racial reconciliation.
4. Vice President
There is wide spread recognition that a choice of a Vice President is a
decision which must be made by the President and accepted by the Party.
At the present time, Governors and Party officials are most reluctant
to express any public views which are critical of Vice President Agnew.
It is equally clear that there is a considerable body of opinion among
Governors and officials that the President's cause would be better
served if there were a change in his running mate for 1972. Nobody
seems to be insisting on an early decision about this matter and I
think that most GOP officials would welcome anything which tends to
strengthen Vice President Agnew's standing with the voters. I believe
it important for everyone to keep in mind that whether or not Agnew
runs for reelection, he still will be Vice President during 1972. For
this reason alone his effectiveness should not be undermined by any
Republican comment or activity. There is wide spread recognition that
part of the Vice President's problem is with the media but by this time
it is almost impossible to make any drastic change in his public image.
Some state chairmen are frank enough to state that if Vice President
Agnew remains on the ticket they hope that he will not campaign in their
states. Others have questioned his effectiveners in being able to pro-
vide additional strength to the President or on behalf of local and
state candidates in their states. At this point in time I would
summarize the situation by saying that the Party is very nervous about
the President's decision on a running mate and that there is very little
affirmative support for the Vice President.
5. George Wallare - 1972
There was a general concensus among couthern Party officials that Wallace
was weaker now than in 1963. For example, Clarke Reed of Mississippi
- 4 -
5. George Wallace - 1972 (Cont'd)
reported that the President was now ahead in a private 3-way poll in
his state. A recent poll in Tennessee showed the President leading
with Wallace a poor third in a 3-way race which included Humphrey as the
Democrat Jim Martin of Alabama said that Wallage is having a great
deal of difficulty with bis Legislature and is losing popular support.
This was confirmed by Tommy Thomas of Florida who is originally from
Alabama and now lives in North Florida. Thomas reports that the
weakening of the Wallace position in Alabama has had the effect of
reducing his appeal in North Florida. Thomas mentioned increasing
public annovance with Wallace's efforts to emphasize 3 Populist role
and in the changes in his personal appearance which have apparently
resulted from his new marriage In other words, the orange shi are
not going over too well. Never the less, it must be recognized that
Wallace does have a strong base of support in the south and that it
must be assumed that he wants to run again next year if he has any
chance at all.
Anything which can be done to undermine his position in the deep south
should be given high priority and every effort must be made to avoid
unnecessary activity which help the Wallace cause in the perimeter
south and border states. Wallace thrives on the volatile nature c2
southern politics where Republican traditions are weak. Loyalty to
the National Democratic Party is increasing through the infusion of
new and moderate Democratic leadership in many southern states.
6. McCloskey
There was general agreement that the President's initiatives with Red
China had effectively undermined McCloskey's position on Indochina
and would reduce his appeal among Republican primary voters. GOP
leaders in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Minnesota, and
California reported some signs of organized activity in behalf of
McCloskey, but none of them indicated that this represented a serious
threat to the President at this time. There was complete agreement
that nothing should be done by party officials at the national, state
or local levels which would make McCloskey a "martyr" or develop
sympathy for him as an underdog candidate.
- 5 -
State by State Comments
Northeast
Maine
At the present time COP chances turn on whether Muskie gets the
Democratic nomination. If he does, then it is unrealistic to expect
the President to make & strong showing in Maine. Senator Smith can
expect a tough race from Congressman Hathaway. She will run an inde-
pendent campaign and probably not become personally involved in the
campaign for President if Muskie LS the Democratic nominee. The GOP
organization is solvent and is building a staff. Ned Harding would
be a good Nixon chairman. There is no race for Governor in 1972 and
the GOP will concentrate on trying to find two decent Congressional
candidates and to hold on to control of both houses of the State
Legislature.
New Hampshire
We can expect McCloskey to make a major effort in New Hampshire,
Party officials believe that the resident's initiative on Red China
has substantially termined McCloskey's position It is recommended
that our people im diately start a program of contact with various
Party leaders who might be likely to support a McCloskey effort for
the purpose of assuring them that the President believes in a broad
based Party and that their support for the President would be welcomed.
It is important to get a slate of Nixon delegates who will have broad
appeal and the delegate selection process must be carried out in a way
which minimizes personal resentments. Mildred Perkins has recommended
that we follow the same general plan of organization for the Nixon
campaign which was followed in 1960. This involved setting up a
"Plans Board" of five co-equal chairmen who met weekly with a campaign
staff. Mildred said that she had obtained favorable approval for this
plan in 1972 from Senator Cotton and from former Governor Lane Dwinell.
Economic conditions are not favorable in New Hampshire at present wi tb
pockets of high unemployment and concern with foreign imports in such
industries as shoes and textiles
The race for Governor is wide open with a lot of resentment against the
incumbent Governor Peterson. Bill Loeb and the Manchester paper are
attacking the President's visit to China although it is unlikely he
would do anything to help McCloskey. The state GOP has no serious
problems of indebtedness but has a very limited staff operation.
Vermont
The President's standing is still strong and economic conditions are
not as serious as elsewhere. Uncertainty remains about the race for
Governor next year and there is no Senate contest. An eye should be
kept on the activities of Tom Haves, a former Lt. Covernor, who might
be a possible leader of any McCloskey activity in the state. Douglas
Cairns, the 1968 Nixon has not been well for several months
but would like to be of help in setting up the 1972 organization.
- 6 -
Vermont (Cont'd)
He is semi-retired from his business and might still be the best man
for next year.
Massachusetts
The President's popularity is not high and economic conditions are
bad in many places. The Massachusetts primary could be dangerous.
A key factor could be whether Governor Sargent and Senator Prooke
Note
would be willing to identify themselves with the President's campaign
in Massachusetts during the primary. Senator Brooke will not face
any serious opposition within the GOP or from the Democrats. It would
make sense to try to get both Governor Sargent and Senator Booke to
campaign in the primary for the President together with all of the GOP
Congressmen. At the very least, an effort should be made to avoid
unnecessary controversy or arguments with the Covernor and Senator
since they could be quite belptul campaigning for the national ticket
in New England and elsewhere.
A visit by the President to Plymouth Rock for the 350th anniversary
during this Thanksgiving might be worth considering. The current
State GOP Chairman, Herbert Waite, is a former Goldwater supporter and
is pro-RN. His relations with Governor Sargent are good and he should
be able to identify all elements of Nixon's support in the state.
Former state Senator William D. Weeks might make a good Nixon chairman
if provided with some campaign staff. Weeks may make another primary
race against Congressman Keith next year which would make him unavail-
able.
The present State Committee is quite weak although the debt is only
$50,000. Reapportionment is likely to hurt GOP Congressmen but this
is not yet settled.
Rhode Island
Economic conditions are close to the national average but it is
possible to blame the Democratic Governor for many state problems.
The GOP expects a strong campaign for both Governor and Senate next
year with former Attorney General Herbert DeSimone making another
race for Governor and John Chafee running against Senator Pell COP
resources will be concentrated in these two campaigns. A possible
Nixon chairman would be George Vetter who has assisted RN activities
in the past or Jim Nugent from Barrington. Olef Anderson would be a
good Nixon finance chairman. The media in Rhode Island has been very
much opposed to the Nixon Administration. Fred Lippett, the GOP
National Committoeman and Minority Leader in the State House of Repre-
sentatives, is very lukewarm about the President. John Chafee can
provide the best help to the President particularly if there is a
Presidential primary on April 12.
Guidance is needed from the Nixon in Wishington about the
necessary strategy for this primary. Page Wright, the State GOP
- 7 -
Rhode Island (Cont'd)
Chairman who is pro-Nixon, recommends that a prominent GOP slate
of delegates run on an uncommitted basis as the best way of minimizing
McCloskey's showing. At the same time every effort must be made to
turn out a good vote for the President in the popularity contest.
Wright said that there would be opposition to the designation of George
Vetter as the Nixon chairman if this gives him an advantage for con-
sideration for appointment to the coming vacancy on the U.S. District
Court for Rhode Island.
Connecticut
Economic conditions are still adverse in Connecticut. Governor Meskill
is a strong supporter of the President and his organization from 1970
would be a good starting point although it is important that Senator
Weicker and others be included. The major statewide race in Connecticut
next year will be for President. Since Connecticut still has the
straight ticket lever, it is most important that a strong campaign for
the President be organized.
There are still difficulties with reapportionment and much dissatis-
faction with the new income tax There is a debt of $114,000 from
1966 which is owed to Gingras their candidate for Governor that year.
Connecticut is a state where we have a much better starting point for
1972 than we did in 1968, and the state GOP did well in 1970 inspite
of extremely adverse economic conditions Brian Gaffney, the new
state GOP Chairman, is close to Governor Meskill and is pro-RN.
New York
Party leaders believe that the President has a good opportunity in
New York in 1972 but there are still many uncertainties. Several GOP
County Chairmen in such strategic areas as Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester,
Monroe and Rockland are strongly opposed to any cooperation with the
Conservative Party on a local basis and are insisting that there be
no Joint electors for the GOP and Conservative Party in 1972. State
GOP officials reflect this same point of view. Senator Buckley seems
to be popular with both Republicans and Conservatives but COP officials
take the view that sooner or later he must drop any official ties with
the Conservative Party if he wants to be regarded as a Republican.
The President may be hurt by this infighting between the Republicans
and Conservative Parties. While it is difficult to demonstrate that
the President would lose any votes if Republican electors did not
also run on the Conservative Party ticket, it is clear that the
President's showing will be weakened il the campaign in New York in
1972 is characterized by a bitter struggle at the state and local
level between Republican and Conservative officials. For this reason,
it is recommended that a high priority be given towards resolving this
inter-party dispute. At least it must be clear to all concerned that
the individuals running the Nixon campaign in New York intond to work
in cooperation with all groups and individuals who support the Presi-
dent even though there may be differences with regard to candidates for
other office. A natural compromise might be to have the GOP agree to
- 8 -
New York (Cont'd)
a cooperative arrangement between Republicans and Conservatives in the
Presidential campaign in return for giving up efforts for joint electors.
New Jersey
Economic conditions are probably not much worse than the national
average but Newark is in an extremely difficult plight. In November,
1971 there will be critical elections for the State Legislature and
local office. The GOP organization is out of debt but reapportionment
questions remain unresolved. This is most unfortunate since the GOP
could gain substantially next year in the races for Congress if a
decision could be reached in the overwhelming Republican Legislature
and the Governor. If reapportionment is put off until next year, the
new Legislature elected in November will make the decision and this
could be more difficult. Governor Cahill is doing a good job and can
be very helpful to the President's campaign next year.
At this time there is no logical choice for a Nixon chairman according
to John Dimon, the state GOP Chairman. New Jersey has a primary on
June 6 which must be given careful consideration since there is some
basis for McCloskey to get support. Senator Case will be running for
reelection and will have a broad based campaign. Every effort should
be made to get his cooperation and assistance in New Jersey on behalf
of the President. There is strong feeling against Vice President
Agnew in New Jersey and it is questionable whether he could campaign
effectively in the state at this time.
Pennsylvania
Economic conditions in Pennsylvania are not aggravated although there
seems to be genuine concern about the future. Governor Shapp is not
popular and is causing many internal party problems. His leadership
can be blamed for some of the economic problems facing Pennsylvania.
Cliff Jones plans to remain as state GOP Chairman. He seems to have
good relations with Senator Schweiker but he recognizes that both
Senator Scott and Schweiker must play a role in any Nixon campaign
in Pennsylvania.
The race for Mayor in Philadelphia this November could affect our
campaign next year. There is an outside chance that Thatcher Longstreth
might win over Rizzo and this would be a great boost for the GOP in
Pennsylvania. High priority must be given by the President and the
Administration to develop a. better political and personal rapport with
Billy Meehan the COP leader in Philadelphia. This has been botched up
badly in the past and must be straightened out. The state GOP is
carrying a debt of $300,000 currently and owes another $500,
The Democratic Party has been superseded by organized labor in many
parts of the state. Any personal attention which the President can
give to Pennsylvania in terms of a or deation would be
most helpful. There is no race for Coverner S nate in Pennsylvania
- 9 -
Pernsylvania (Cont'd)
next year and the race for President will be critical for the GOP in
the state. Cliff Jones feels that Bill Scranton may be over used as
a campaign chairman and mentioned Arlen Spector as a person who might
be considered for a Nixon chairman. Elsie Hillman is SO violently
opposed to Vice President Agnew that she should not be considered for
any role at this stage.
Delaware
The President's standing is still fairly high in Delaware according
to Gene Bunting the state GOP Chairman. Governor Peterson and Senator
Boggs will be running for reelection next year and both will support
the President. Other Party leaders such as Senator Roth, former
Senator Williams and Wilmington Mayor Haskell should be included in
any discussion of a Nixon chairman. The Party finances are in good
shape and there seems to be no interest in McCloskey. John Rollins
will be heading up the GOP dinner on November 9 and can be of help in
Delaware.
Maryland
There is an opportunity to put together a much better organization for
the President in 1972 than we had in 1968. Economic conditions are
not good but Democratic leadership is somewhat divided. The GOP
still owes $100, from 1968 but this is manageable. Senators
Beall and Mathias would be good co-chairmen for the Nixon campaign,
With a full-time campaign manager in charge. Secretary Rogers Morton
is extremely popular in Maryland and can provide a great deal of help.
Vice President Agnew's interest and involvement in Maryland is unknown
at the present time but this will be critical. Alexander Lankler,
the state GOP Chairman, is strongly pro-Nixon and caused the Maryland
State GOP Committee to become the first in the nation to endorse the
reelection of the President. The Maryland Presidential primary would
result in a strong showing for the President if all Party leaders
can be brought into the effort. We are still weak in the Baltimore
area, both county and city.
West Virginia
The President is relatively weak in West Virginia although he may make
a better showing next year than in 1968. Governor Moore has not
decided whether to run for reelection or for the seat now held by
Senator Randolph. Governor Moore is quite popular at this time and
his control over the Party is firm. The state GOP is out of debt and
doing well in building a staff for maxia year The Nixon chairman must
be someone who can work closely with Arch Moore and it definitely
should not be former Covernor Cecil Underwood, a bitter opponent of
Arch
Moore State Chairman Tom Potter strongly recommends that Judge
John Field be named to the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals to replace
- 10 -
West Virginia (Cont'd)
retiring Judge Herbert Boreman and that John T. Copenhaver, Jr. be
named to replace Judge Field on the U.S. District Court. Jay Rockefel
is the probably Democratic candidate for Covernor and will be quite
strong. Randolph has not indicated whether he plans to run again for
the Sena to seat.
District of Columbia
The President should make a strong race in the GOP primary based on
primary results in past elections. However, this could be a tricky
situation and every effort should be made to prevent any mishap. In
discussions with Bob Carter who represented State COP Chairman Ned
Pendelton, he recommended that Perkins McGuire serve as Nixon chai rman
in
1972 An alternate suggestion was B1 McManus who is a retired
official of the C.& P. Telephone Company and a member of the GOP State
Committee.
South
Virginia
Party officials at the Denver meeting were generally optimistic and
reported no particular voter enthusiasm for any of the leading Demo-
cratic candidates. I did not discuss organization matters with them
on the assumption that Harry Flemming will take care of this.
North Carolina
Both Ed Broyhill and Thelma Rogers were optimistic about the
President's chances in North Carolina next year. However, I did not
discuss organization matters with them since the state GOP Chairman,
Jim Holshouser. was not present. I would hope that we can get an
early start in putting together a strong organization for the Presi-
dent in North Carolina which can make an excellent showing in their
new primary.
South Carolina
Nothing new to report except that Senator Thurmond seems to be getting
off to a good start in his bid for reelection.
Georgia
Jean Ferst represented Bob Shaw the new state GOP Chairman at the
Denver meetings. She strongly recommended Paul Jones as the Nixon
chairman for Georgia. The GOP in Georgia does have a great many
internal difficulties involving key Party leaders, but all can be
expected to give strong support to the President next year. The GOP
nominee for the Senate is still uncertain and David Cambrell who was
appointed to replace Senator Russell is gaining strength.
- 11 -
Florida
The President's strength in Florida still holds up well according to
Tommy Thomas the state GOP Chairman. The Democrats should be helped
in Florida by having their convention in Miami. Governor Askew is
expected to give strong support to the Democratic Presidential ticket
but his current popularity is not too good Tom recommended that
Lawrence Lee of Jacksonville might make a good Nixon chairman or at
least a finance chairman.
Florida has a primary on March 14. It is important to get a strong
and broad based delegation. McCloskey has no particular strength in
Florida. Senator Gurney is working hard to improve his relations with
the GOP and is making progress There are no races for Senate or
Governor. Reapportionment is unresolved at this point. Bill Cramer
is expected to run for Congress in 1972. The GOP decision to have
it's convention in San Diego instead of Miami might create a problem
but all Party leaders in Denver promised to do everything they could
to be of help in this regard:
Kentucky
Kentucky elects a new Governor this fall and no real decisions can
be made about the campaign for 1972 until after November. Governor
Louie Nunn will work hard to elect a Republican Governor but it looks
like an uphill fight at this point. Nunn is expected to run for
Senator Cooper's seat next year. The GOP problems in Louisville
remains unresolved and a lot of work needs to be done there. John
Kerr, the COP State Chairman, reports no particular enthusiasm in
Kentucky for any of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls.
Kerr expressed the view that it was important to get Congressman
Snyder's support for Tom Emberton in his race for Governor. It may
be that Snyder wants to run for the Senate seat in 1972 and believes
that Emberton would give his support to Nunn if elected Governor.
Tennessee
Nixon's strength in Tennessee is still very strong. In a 3-way race
for President taken this month, the President had 46% to 31% for
Humphrey and 20% for Wallace (3% undecided). This compares with the
1968 percentage of Nixon 38%, Humphrey 28% and Wallace 34%. Economic
conditions are not too bad at this time in Tennessee but the school
bussing issue could be extremely serious if aggravated. So far no
Democratic candidate has any strong appeal in Tennessee.
Senator Baker is running for reelection and will be of help to
President Nixon. Governor Dunn and Senator Brock both are in a
position to help. Any Nixon chairman must be cleared by all of
these principals.
- 12 -
Alabama
Jim Martin confirms the local problems facing Wallace. It is going
to be important to get a good committee in Alabama as early as
possible which will create additional pressure on Wallace not to run
by helping to mobilize opposition at home. If Wallace does not run,
the President should be able to carry Alabama.
Mississippi
Clarke Reed reports that the President is leading in Mississippi in
all 3-way combinations but this is an extremely volatile situation
If Wallace does not run, then Nixon should carry Mississippi with no
difficulty.
Arkansas
Charles Bernard is the new COP State Chairman and a strong supporter
of the President. He is convinced that Nixon can carry Arkansas and
is giving this his top statewide priority. There will be no strong
opposition to Senator McClellan next year. Governor Bumpers is
probably going to get a second term with only token opposition by
the GOP.
The recent statement by Vice President Agnew about black leadership
in America was harmful to Bernard's efforts to get support from black
leaders. Of course, if Congressman Mills is on the Democratic ticket,
that would guarantee him state support. President Nixon is more
popular in Arkansas now than in 1968 and Wallace has definitely slip-
ped
in
populari
No polls are available at this time for the
Presidential race in Arkansas.
Economic conditions are not too bad and the GOP organization is out
of debt and has a budget of $80,000 for this year. It will be im-
portant to have a harmonious working relationship between the GOP
organization and former Covernor Winthrop Rocketeller. in 1968,
Governor Rockefeller concentrated on his own campaign for reelection
and gave very little assistance to the national ticket. He could be
of great help in developing support for President Nixon among black
voters in Arkansas. Participation by blacks in the Arkansas GOP is
very wide spread and it is important to maintain and expand this base
of support,
Louisiana
Louisiana will elect a new Governor on February 1, 1972. The GOP
candidate is David Treen of New Orleans who nearly defeated Hale Boggs
in two different Congressional campaigns. The Nixon campaign in
Louisiana will have to follow a "citizens" approach if it is to succeed
and Treen is following this strategy. Treen's organization would
provide a good base on which to build the President's campaign in
Louisiana since it will be broadly based and include many Democrats.
- 13 -
Louisiana (Cont'd)
Charlton Lyons is finance chairman for David Treen. Economic
conditions are not too good and the HEW activities have been disas-
trous. The key factor is whether Wallace is a candidate again. His
strength is less now than in 1968 but it could grow if he can take
advantage of certain issues.
Texas
GOP internal problems are much improved and the President has a strong
chance to carry Texas in 1972. Economic conditions are somewhat
adverse and the HEW activities have been extremely damaging to the
President and Administration. A major effort will be made to reelect
Senator Tower who stands a good chance since Lt. Governor Ben Barnes
will be running for Covernor. I did not discuss details of Nixon
organization with any Texas COP officials in Denver.
Midwest
Ohio
After the setback suffered in 1970, the GOP is regaining its morale
and this is extremely important. They have recently held eight fund-
raising dinners attended by over 5,500 people which is an increase
over last year. The Party is now out of debt although Roger Cloud
still owes $30,000 from his race for Governor. Governor Gilligan's
popularity is not good at this point stemming from tax and fiscal
problems. Gilligan is building a strong Democratic organization
working with union officials.
Bob Taft's announcement as a favorite son surprised people in Ohio as
well as in Washington but it has been accepted. On reapportionment,
the COP sponsored bill will be enacted but vetoed by Gilligan. It
will then be decided by the courts. The result could turn on whether
Lt goes to the State court or the Federal court, It is clear that
Ohio will be a major battle ground in 1972 and every effort must be
made to carry this state.
There are no major statewide races in 1972 except for President and
an early start should be made in putting together the strongest
possible organization on behalf of Nixon in Ohio. This will require
cooperation from the Administration as well as with elected and Party
officials in Ohio. Economic conditions remain as a major difficulty
but it now seems that Party people in Ohio believe that the job can
be done if everyone works together.
Indiana
I did not discuss the details of a Nixon campaign organization with
Indiana GOP officials in Denver. The incumbent administration of
- 14 -
Indiana (Cont'd)
Governor Whitcomb is not popular with the voters or a large segment
of the COP. The internal Party problems remain unrecolved but this
should not prevent a unified campaign for President Nixon. Economic
conditions are adverse in many parts of the state. The race for
Governor could be of extreme importance and it is necessary to get
a unified base of Party support behind a strong candidate for Governor.
There will be a Presidential primary campaign where McCloskey should not
run well but where GOP efforts might fail because of internal problems.
Major emphasis in Indiana will be centered on the various local races
this November. After these are out of the way, it will be important
to start work immediately on the President's campaign throughout the
state,
Michigan
Economic conditions in the state are very bad with unemployment up to
16% in Detroit. HUD is most unpopular in the suburbs where the GOP
has to get its major support. There will have to be close coordina-
tion between the campaign for Nixon and with Senator Griffin who will
be running for reelection in a tough race. Any visits by the Presi-
dent before the election would be a big help. The Party has a debt of
some $800 000 from 1968 and 1970 and is operating on the basis of a
skeleton organization.
A critical problem which must be resolved soon is the relationship
of the conservative element of the Party led by State Senator Huber
and the Republican State Administration of Governor Milliken, If
Huber sets up a formal 3rd party it could endanger both Griffin and
the President. Somebody should have a pointed conversation with
Governor Milliken in order to get his cooperation in resolving this
problem as soon as possible.
A good Nixon chairman for Michigan might be Lt. Governor Brickley.
He is a former prosecutor from Wayne County and is a progressive
Republican. The Nixon campaign in Michigan will be uphill but it
should be as strong as possible if only to help Senator Griffin, the
State Legislature and GOP Congressional candidates. Governor Milliken
has reiterated his willingness to be of assistance to the President in
every way possible and he should be encouraged to become actively in-
volved in Michigan and elsewhere.
Illinois
This is an extremely critical state for the President in 1972. Senator
Percy and Attorney General Scott both seem to be assured of reelection
next year. Governor Ogilvie is recovering his standing with the voters
and plans to run a tough and well financed campaign, There is general
agreement by all principals on Tom Houser as the man to run the Presi-
dent's campaign in Illinois once he leaves the FCC on October 1.
- 15 -
Illinois (Cont'd)
Economic conditions and inflation are major difficulties for the
President in Illinois. Governor Ogilvie and State Chairman Vic Smith
both urge the President to visit Illinois, particularly Downstate, as
much an possible during the balance of this year and next.
A Muskie/Ctevenson ticket would create serious problems for President
Nixon in Illinois and efforts must be taken to develop support for
the President with ethnic voters. It would be hoped that Senator
Percy could help increase support for the President among minority
voters.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the most difficult of the midwest states for the
President to repeat his victory of 1968. Much of the GOP Party
organization is new and this might be an advantage. John Hough, the
GOP State Chairman seemed quite pleased wi th the selection of John
MacIver and Bob Knowles as temporary chairmen for Nixon. Because of
the importance of the Wisconsin primary and the absence of major state-
wide races, it will be important to start the President's campaign as
soon as possible.
The Party is seriously in debt ($800,000) but this must not hamper
efforts for the President. Ody Fish, who is now National Committeeman,
would like to play an active part where he can.
Minnesota
The GOP in Minnesota is digging out from under a Democratic landslide
in 1970. The new State GOP Chairman. David Krogseng was a former
aide of Clark MacGregor and is a strong supporter of President Nixon.
The COP will have difficulty getting a strong candidate against Senator
Mondale next year. The COP is carrying a debt of some $170,000 of
which $60,000 is to be paid next year. Congressman McCloskey has been
in the state and has some kind of a following. This will require a
strong organization effort by the Nixon forces from the precincts on
up to the district and state conventions where delegates are chosen.
Of course, if Humphrey is the Democratic nominee for President, we
would face the same problems of 1968 Without Humphrey or Mondale on
the Democratic ticket, the GOP in Minnesota hopes to make a strong
comeback in 1972. The new Democratic Governor, Wendell Anderson, has
not been particularly popular although he is an attractive leader.
South Dakota
The GOP in South Dakota was nearly wiped out in 1970. Next year it
must find candidates for U.S. Senate (Mundt). Covernor and other
statewide offices, and two Congressional candidates The Party has
been reorganized with Bob Burns as the new State Chairman. Jack Gibson
has been trying to put together a group of candidates for the key races.
- 16 -
South Dakota (Cont'd)
There is agreement between Gibson and Burns that the Nixon campaign
in South Dakota should be run under the co-chairmanship of former
Congressman Berry and Reifel with "Obie" O'Brien of Madison as the
campaign manager. Farm discontent is aggravated in South Dakota with
additional problems from the ICC ruling on minors driving farm vehicles
across state lines and the enforcement by Secretary Volpe of the high-
way program penalties for failure to remove billboards.
North Dakota
Agricultural problems still are the key issue. Both Ben Clayburgh,
GOP National Committeeman, and Jack Iluss, GOP State Chairman, strongly
urge the President to appear before a farm group and deal specifically
with agricultural issues. They were particularly concerned that any
White House staff member speaking for agriculture be someone who can
be identified as a "real farmer. This definitely should not be
somebody from the area of "Agro-business."
In both North Dakota and South Dakota the Democrats are effectively
attacking the President for a "do nothing" policy on the economy.
Senator Milton Young could be the most helpful to the President in
North Dakota but he is quite unhappy over Administration farm policy
and leadership.
Missouri
Economic conditions are probably not as bad in Missouri as in other
states. Missouri must elect a new Governor next year and the
Democrats will have at least a 6-way primary fight. In the GOP,
State Representative Buzz King has announced for Governor, but the
likely GOP nominee will be State Auditor Kit Bond who won by a smashing
plurality of 200, votes in 1970. It will be important to keep a
close tab on the selection of delegates in Missouri. The state GOP
is out of debt. The reapportionment issues are still open. Both
Gene Taylor National Committeeman, and Nick Gray, State COP Chairman,
strongly recommend that Larry Roos, St. Louis County Executive, be
the Nixon chai rman for Missouri. Attorney General Jack Danforth will
be running for reelection. GOP Congressman Hall will probably not
run for reelection and it will be important to get a good candidate
there with a minimum of Party struggle.
Iowa
Farm issues are paramount in Iowa although the general economy is
fairly good. The President's image on farm issues is one of aloofness
but the foreign policy issues are still important in Iowa. Governor
Ray plans to run for reelection but faces a bitter primary fight from
Lt. Governor Roger Gebson. This will have an adverse impact on GOP
fund-raising in Iowa and might lead to a Democratic Governor. Demo-
cratic Congressman John Culver is expected to run against Senator
Jack Miller. This could be a close race.
- 17 -
Iowa (Cont'd)
State Chairman John McDonald recommended consideration of Ray Murphy,
Tom Stoner or Rob Brinton as Nixon Chairman for Iowa with Dick
Bergland and Sue Reed as possibilities for campaign managers.
Nebraska
The new State Chairman, Milan Bush, stressed both farming issues and
the problems of rural areas. Secretary Hardin is handicapped in his
efforts for the Administration even though he is from Nebraska. Bush
seemed to have no particular objection to the choice of George Cook
as Nixon chairman in Nebraska next year.
It is recognized that every effort must be given to Senator Curtis in
his reelection effort next year. The Nebraska primary can be turned
into a strong plus for the President and there seems to be little
support for McCloskey.
Kansas
Economic conditions in Kansas are still difficult for the GOP. The
Democratic Covernor, following the lead of Senator McGovern and other
midwest Democrats, maintains a steady barrage of criticism about the
President and Administration economic policies The race for Governor
next year is open with Bob Wells, now on the FCC, as a good GOP
possibility. Governor Darking has not yet indicated whether he will
run against Senator Jim Pearson next year. There are several possi-
bilities for Nixon chairman, but no firm recommendation as yet from
Bill Falstad, the new State Chairman.
Oklahoma
The President is still popular in Oklahoma in spite of economic
problems. None of the major Democratic candidates seems to have any
particular strength. The new Democratic Governor, David Hall. will
be working hard against President Nixon and is a strong partisan
Democrat. The race for Senate could be quite tough since Oklahoma
voters might not really want to have two GOP Senators (like the Bush
ituation in Texas in 1970).
Congressman Edmondson will make a strong Senate candidate for the
Democrate. There is a definite split in GOP leaders with State Chair-
man Clarence Warner reflecting a different position from the Bellmon
group. Doug McKeever of Enid is recommended by Dorothy Stanislaus
as Nixon chairman. The GOP Senate possibilities include former
Governor Dewey Bartlett ( the favorite), astronaut Tom Stafford, and
Bud Stewart. Bartlett hopes to develop enough strength to avoid
open fight.
- 18 -
West
Alaska
The Nixon Administration is not popular in Alaska at the present time.
The Alaska pipeline is the key issue and a decision is expected this
fall. It is most important that this announcement should be made by
Secretary Morton and Senator Stevens in Fairbanks and not Let the
announcement come from Governor Egan or Senator Gravel. The State
Chairman for Alaska, A1 Bramstedt, was active in the 1968 campaign for
Nixon. He reports that GOP morale with regard to the President's
campaign is not good. State Senator Jack Coghill is a possible Nixon
chairman. Former Secretary Hickel may run an independent slate of
delegates. Hickel is quite frustrated and is spending a great deal
of time in Alaska. At this point. Senator Stevens faces an uphill
fight unless the pipeline issue is settled the right way. The state
GOP has no debt and is trying to develop programs to reach the new
people coming in because of the oil industry and the native population.
A real help would be if the Jones Act could be changed to permit
foreign vessels to carry cargo from the mainland to Alaska. Unemploy-
ment is now at 13%. The shipping strike has been a disaster and will
cause even more damage in the long run as business concerns are unable
to reopen.
Hawaii
Hawaii has a woman as their new State Chairman. Carla Coray said
the state organization is out of debt but there are many organizational
problems. Bill Quinn, now President of the Dole Corporation, might
be a good Nixon chairman. John Bellinger, a Honolulu banker, is also
a possibility. The shipping strike is most serious and must be ended
soon. Modification of the Jones Act and the release of Federal land
would be of greatest benefit to the President's campaign in Hawaii.
California
Put Livermore, the COP State Chairman, is doing a first rate job
in trying to keep everything together. The economy is the key issue
in California. Put has been concentrating his effort on reapportion-
ment. He stressed that the 1972 delegation should be broadly based
and selected on the basis of helping the President carry California
in November. The President's proposed trip to China has done a lot to
weaken McCloskey's position in California.
Oregon
There was approval by GOP officials in Denver of the choice of
Congressman Wendall Wvatt as Nixon chairman for Oregon. Currently
the Party faces a bitter fight between Governor McCall and Senator
Hatfield for the Senate nomination next year. Governor McCall plans
to make support for the President a major issue between himself and
- 19 -
Oregon (Cont'd)
Senator Hatfield and his activities at the Western Governors Con-
ference in Jackson reflected this strategy. If Governor McCall is
elected to the Senate. Oregon would have a Democrat as Governor since
the State Senate President would move up to that spot. The new GOP
State Chairman. Hank Hart expects Senator Hatfield to do much better
in a primary contest against Governor McCall than the polls now
indicate, McCloskey would have some support in his campaign against
the President in Oregon.
Washington
Senator Jackson's strength is very strong at the present time. Economic
conditions are quite bad and help the Democrats. Governor Evans has
not decided whether he will run for a third term. State Chairman Earl
Davenport strongly urged a visit by the President to Washington State.
Davenport suggested Luke Williams as the Nixon chairman. Williams is
a conservative from Spokane who has good relations with Governor Evans.
Joel Pritchard of Seattle might also be a good Nixon chairman provided
he does not make another primary fight against Congressman Pelly. The
state GOP is out of debt and expects to pick up the 4th Congressional
District lost by Catherine May in 1970. The GOP candidate will be
Stewart Bledsoe who is a Republican leader in the State Legislature.
Arizona
The President is still quite popular in Arizona and economic con-
ditions are not particularly bad. The GOP finances are in good shape.
Reapportionment has a key priority with Arizona GOP which hopes to
pick up the new House seat. Harry Rosensweig, COP State Chairman,
recommends Jim O'Connor as Nixon chairman. O'Connor is a friend of
Herb Kalmbach and is a Democrat who supports the President.
New Mexico
The state has serious economic problems. Senator Montoya is quite
popular with Spanish-American voters and is strongly anti-GOP The
state GOP is only $6 000 in debt but extensive fund-raising is dif-
ficult in New Mexico Tom McKenna will soon replace Bob Davidson
as GOP State Chairman. Davidson recommends former Lt. Governor Bohack
as a possibility for Nixon chairman.
Both parties are expecting primary contests for Senator Anderson's
seat. If Anderson runs again it could change that situation. Senator
Jackson is quite strong in New Mexico since his wife is from there
and worked for Senator Anderson.
Nevada
None of the National Democrats are very popular in Nevada and the
President should have a good chance to carry the state in 1972
according to George Abbott, the State GOP Chairman. Senator Jackson
- 20 -
Nevada (Cont'd)
would be the strongest Democratic nominee in Nevada. Abbott recommends
Bob Wordman, a banker from Las Vegas, as Nixon chairman. He also had
high praise for Attorney General Bob List Former Covernor Paul
Laxalt has received some criticism since the 1970 election and would
not be the best man to head up the Nixon campaign. The state GOP is
$30,000 in debt mostly from the Senate race in 1970. There are no
races for Governor or Senate in Nevada next year.
Colorado
Nixon's popularity is still very good in Colorado and the GOP is well
organized. Congressman Evans is the likely candidate against Senator
Allott. The GOP is out of debt. Bill Armstrong, the Nixon chairman
in 1968, may be a Congressional candidate next year. Reapportionment
problems are still not yet settled. Governor Love might be the
strongest man to head up the campaign for President Nixon in Colorado
in 1972. The Governor is quite popular with all groups at this point.
Wyoming
The President is still strong in Wyoming although there are some
economic difficulties in the state. Senator Hansen should win his
campaign for reelection. The GOP still is unsettled on its candidate
for Congressman-at-Large. There is no race for Governor. The new
State GOP Chairman, David Kennedy, is close to Governor Hathaway and
there seem to be no internal Party problems of significance.
Utah
Economic conditions are still causing problems and inflation hurts
the GOP. The recent copper strikes have been extremely serious in
Utah. The new state GOP Chairman is Kent Shearer, who was Utah
chairman for Reagan in 1968. Ken Garff, the National Committeeman,
thinks that the President can carry Utah again but that it will re-
quire a strong campaign effort. Governor Rampton has not indicated
whether he will seek reelection. The GOP candidate for Governor is
uncertain although it is most important that they obtain a strong
person to run for this office.
Montana
The new COP State Chairman, Bill Holter, from Great Falls, is a
political amateur and very inexperienced. He seems to be well motivated
and determined to spend a lot of time and effort in building an organ-
ization. Economic conditions are critical in Montana. The Democratic
Governor, Forrest Anderson, will be working for the national ticket and
Senator Mansfield may be of some help. Senator Jackson would have
strong
support.
The
is
building
an
organization.
There is no likely GOP nominee against Senator Metcalf next year.
- 21 -
Montana (Cont'd)
Holter expects a lot of good impact from the President's visit to
Clacier National Park next month. Bill Holter suggested Frank Whetstone
of Cut Bank as Nixon chairman for Montana, but he will look for addi-
tional prospects.
Idaho
The President should carry Idaho next year but with a reduced plurality.
The Democrats, under Governor Andrus, are concentrating their efforts
next year almost exclusively on the State Legislature. This means
that they will not do much to help the national ticket. Roland Wilber,
GOP State Chairman, suggests that Jack Murphy may be the best man to
head up the Nixon campaign with Bill Campbell helping on organization.
Senator Jordan seems to be in good shape for reelection Wilber did
express the view that Secretary Connally would not be a good choice
for Vice President insofar as Idaho was concerned.