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Talking points (Democratic Situation) - The New Hampshire Democratic Pirmary. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/7/1972
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Talking points (Democratic Situation) - The New Hampshire Democratic Pirmary. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Report], 3/7/1972
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
48
49
3/7/1972
Campaign
Report
Talking points (Democratic Situation) - The
New Hampshire Democratic Pirmary. 4 pgs.
Thursday, June 04, 2015
Page 1 of 1
DOCUMENT WITHDRAWAL RECORD [NIXON PROJECT]
DOCUMENT
DOCUMENT
NUMBER
TYPE
SUBJECT/TITLE OR CORRESPONDENTS
DATE
RESTRICTION
N-1
Report
Talking Points Democratic
3/7/72
Situation) - The new Hompshire
ccmy)
[DOC 144]
Democratic Premium
N-2
memo
Steve Embry cto Khochigian, re:
nid.
[Doc 145]
Trushie as frontrumna
FILE GROUP TITLE
BOX NUMBER
KEN KHACHIGAN
24
FOLDER TITLE Mushie II (Felimay 9, 1972 them march 31,19721
L2/2]
RESTRICTION CODES
A. Release would violate a Federal statute or Agency Policy.
E. Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
B. National security classified information.
financial information.
C. Pending or approved claim that release would violate an individual's
F. Release would disclose investigatory information compiled for law
rights.
enforcement purposes.
D. Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of privacy
G. Withdrawn and return private and personal material.
or a libel of a living person.
H. Withdrawn and returned non-historical material.
NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION
NA FORM 1421 (4-85)
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: Kenneth L. Khachigian
Box Number:
24
Folder:
Muskie V (February 8, 1972 thru March 31, 1972) [2 of 2]
Document
Disposition
144
Return Private/Political
145
Return Private/Political
TALKING POINTS (DEMOCRATIC SITUATION) -- THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
If Muskie gets less than 50% of the vote, the outcome is
"astonishing." Coming in a state whose border is 25 miles from the
place where Muskie was born and raised; a state to which Muskie is
regarded as a "neighbor;" Muskie's back yard; and a state where Muskie
visits every year the results must be considered a setback to his
candidacy.
-- Muskie had virtually no opposition, especially considering his
opponents insignificance ratings in national public opinion polls. Such
an outcome indicates Muskie's support is soft and that Muskie was less
than a heavyweight.
Frankly, we had considered Muskie to have the nomination
virtually sewed up. To win by such a narrow margin indicates that
Muskie, as of now, might not make the distance and that Hubert Humphrey
must be considered a very real challenge to the Muskie candidacy.
Humphrey is a much better campaigner, and as the titular head of
the Democratic party has a great deal of broad-based support throughout
the country. The bigwinner of the N.H. Primary was the man who didn't
even appear on the ballot -- Hubert Humphrey.
If Muskie scores between 50% and 60%, much of the same above
applies. It should be considered the most minimal of victories for
Muskie and a pyrrhic victory. Anything less than 60% in his political
back yard indicates a great weakening of Muskie's support.
If he gets around 65%, it should be noted that this was very much
expected that we thought he would get at least 65%, especially con-
sidering his lack of major opposition and his geographic proximity. Only
a Muskie victory of 70% could be considered anything near the proportions
of a candidate who is supposed to be so clearly a "frontrunner."
In light of Muskie's small margin of victory, Republicans will
surely reassess Muskie's strength. He certainly is no longer the formidable
"Lincolnesque" figure that he might have been considered.
Asked about the crying incident, we have no comment on how it
affected the election. The public should be the judge of a presidential
candidate's loss of composure over one or two isolated news articles.
There is some question on how Muskie would hold up against the pressures
of a full-blown presidential campaign and the pressures of the Oval Office.
After all, it is just starting. Most likely, Muskie's indecisiveness and the
uncertainty on where he stands probably hurt Muskie more than anything else.
In general, the primary shows the disarray that pervades Democratic
party ranks. They have no true leadership -- nothing like the FDR--Truman--
Kennedy--Johnson tradition. They are confused, disunited, and leaderless
and must do better to merit the public's support in November over a strong
President.
Mushie
To Ken Khadigraw
from Steve
Embry. MB
Muskie is the Democratic frontrunner. He is also the candidate
with the greatest chance of uniting the Democratic Barty and
thus the toughest of the President's potential opponents. At this
point we can do either of two things; 1) campaign against Muskie
2, campaign against the developement of a united Democratic Party.
1 favor the second strategy. It is nearly 10 months until the
election and a campaign directed at one person must grow momotonous
over that length. Also attacks on Muskie at this point only serve
to develope the impression that he is THE CANDIDATE and strengthen
his standing with his uneasy allies in the Dem. left wing.
it would be better to concentrate on keeping the old '68 wounds
open. Muskie as the candidate of opportunity is claiming and
getting support on the left that should be going to McGovern.
They will support Muskie until so long as he is in the lead
and offers the best chance to beat the President, but their hearts
lie elsewhere. If Muskie can be denied a first ballot victory
in Miami 1 believe his coalition will come apart, and with it
the Democratic rarty.
Denying him the first ballot win will be difficult but not
necessarily impossible. If McGovern makes a decent showing in
Florida, relative to Big nd, and does well in Wisconsin and if
the caucus reform mechanism continues to add to his strength
he may have more at Miami than many now think. Also Humphrey
is likely to call in 2 bedrock of delegates. Finally if Wallace
picks up more than a spattering of Southern delegates the total
added to the splinter candidates may be enough.
There are several things we can do to help develope this
situation.. First tone down the attacks on Muskie, and stop
treating him like the candidate of the Democrats. When his actions
require a response, give it, but to one of the possible candidates.
Continue to hit him on his Johnny come Lately opposition to a
War the President is ending, but do not question his patriotism
or take any action which is likely to draw sympathy from the
libs.
Me Govern requires the opposite tactics. Attacks on him increase
his presitige, particularly when they are attacks on his programs.
Redicule of his lack of progress in the polls is not helpful, instead
he should be refered to as"one of the leading Demoeratic contenders!
A rousing attack from the Vice President directed at the leading
Rad-Lib would probably do as much for him amoung the far left as
would an addition 5 points in New Hampshire.
Finally it might help to leak to the press that the feeling is
that the Dem. Caucus reforms have greatly benefited McGovern
and he is indeed a possible contender.
Needless to say the entire operation must be handled with
great sophistication. A sudden and total change would be
transparent and sif defeating. Still 1 think the plan as
a whole has merit.