Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Source Description
This file contains:
From Patrick Buchanan to the President. RE: New Jersey victory of William Cahill analysis. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/15/1969
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
26146667
label
WHSF: Contested, 49-38
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
26146667
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
WHSF: Contested, 49-38
description
This file contains:
From Patrick Buchanan to the President. RE: New Jersey victory of William Cahill analysis. 3 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 12/15/1969
citationUrl
collections
Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
Contested Materials Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
26146667
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
ba6062ba08667485
ocrText
Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
49
38
12/15/1969
Campaign
Memo
From Patrick Buchanan to the President.
RE: New Jersey victory of William Cahill
analysis. 3pgs.
Monday, June 04, 2012
Page 1 of 1
DOCUMENT WITHDRAWAL RECORD [NIXON PROJECT]
DOCUMENT
DOCUMENT
NUMBER
TYPE
SUBJECT/TITLE OR CORRESPONDENTS
DATE
RESTRICTION
NI
MEMO
From Flaxigan to RN
12/4/69
C(NIXOR
Re: Paris
[47]
N2
MEMO
from Buckanan to RN
12/15/69
C(NIXON,
[48]
Re: Phillip's analysis
w/2 capies attached
N3
MEMO
from Glanigan to RN
12/9/69
C(NIXD.
[49]
Re: Reused list I candidates
4
"
N4
MEMO
Capy of N3
(49]
FILE GROUP TITLE
BOX NUMBER
POF
4
Presidents FOLDER TITLE Handwriting RESTRICTION Dec. CODES / three 15, 1969
A. Release would violate a Federal statute or Agency Policy.
E. Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
B. National security classified information.
financial information.
C. Pending or approved claim that release would violate an individual's
F. Release would disclose investigatory information compiled for la
rights.
enforcement purposes.
D. Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of privacy
G. Withdrawn and return private and personal material.
or a libel of a living person.
H. Withdrawn and returned non-historical material.
NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION
NA FORM 1421
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: President's Office Files
Box Number:
4
Folder:
President's Handwriting December 1 thru 15, 1969
Document
Disposition
47
Retain Close Invasion of Privacy
48
Return Private/Political
49
Retain Close Invasion of Privacy
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 15, 1969
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT
Kevin Phillips has done a comprehensive analysis (attached) of the
New Jersey victory of William Cahill. The following seem to be
inescapable conclusions:
1. Cahill's massive victory (half a million votes ) was
brought about by his stitching together the Nixon vote and the
Wallace vote -- and adding Silent Majority disenchanted Catholic
Democrats.
2. Despite prodigious efforts to make inroads into
the black community in New Jersey, the Jewish community and the
McCarthy suburbanites -- Cahill's gains were modest at best --
and can not possibly explain his 500, 000 vote margin, as compared
with RN's 61,000 vote margin.
(note: Where RN's percentage of the New Jersey black
vote ran from eight to ten per cent; Cahill's percentage was some-
where between 15 and 20 per cent. Since the total black vote is only
one hundred thousand, this modest percentage increment cannot
account for a tenth of Cahill's massive plurality. A similar situation
exists among Jewish voters, where Cahill's modest increment over
the President cannot explain any significant fraction of his
half a million plurality.)
3. It was in those areas where Wallace ran quite strong
Preservation Copy
that, both in terms of percentage and total vote, Cahill outscored
the President's totals by thousands and thousands of votes.
Not only did Cahill in these areas get both the Nixon
and Wallace vote -- but he got the Democratic vote that had been
Wallace and had gone back to Humphrey.
to
2
give Phillip when Frilay. he
-2-
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
The Cahill race was considered by most observors to be
a toss-up, a non-ideological contest between two men of rather
close and largely liberal views. What made it a landslide were
clearly the President's visit to New Jersey; probably as important
or more important, the election eve speech, separating the country
into the goats and The Great Silent Majority. We also believe
that the direct appeal to the Catholic constituency (half of the
Jersey electorate) was very helpful. In the three attached
ads, especially the final one, run in Catholic diocesan newspapers
went directly and unabashedly after the "Catholic" vote. Meyner
(an apostate Catholic, a fact made known to the Catholic clerical
community) attacked this approach and the GOP in New Jersey
was squeamish about it until the returns came in.
Where is Cahill's victory? Half of New Jersey voters are
Catholic; RN got 35 per cent of them, Wallace 10 per cent of
them -- and Cahill 60 per cent of them. As Senator Goldwater
used to say, "It's as simple as that. 11
THOUGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is crystal clear from the above where future victory
for the President and the party in the Northeast lies. It lies
in keeping the Republican party intact - - and in adding to it by the
tens of thousands of "gut" conservative, predominantly Catholic,
Silent Majority Democrats. Let the press squeal about a "Southern
Strategy" all they wish. What they don't seem to realize is that in
addition to adding Southern Protestants by the tens of thousands to
the New Majority, we are making it a national one by adding as
many Northern Catholics.
However, the manner in which the Republican National Committee
seems to allocate its minority resources reflects the reverse
of the political realities as I see them.
Preservation Copy
Our Catholic division, set up last spring at the direction of
the President and the request of the Committee of Six, consists today of
one girl -- full-time as compared with the RNC's heavy and permanent
black auxiliary. Now, we should not simply fire blacks and hire Catholics -
but we should recognize, again, where the ducks are. Southern Protestants
and Northern Catholics, predominantly months white, are to the missing elements this
-1-
of
must
- -3-
in the Nixon Majority, waiting to join. (Note: Peter Flanigan's
contacts with the Vatican seem to have been most beneficial; their
press is good to the Administration; the Pope is effusive in his
praise for the President; and all this is reflected in the American
Catholic press.)
What we would like is the President's blessing to continue
with our project, to expand it within the RNC if we feel it is
justified. (Harry Dent would be in on this decision.) With a good
running start we should have, by the early fall of 1970, clearly
identified all the national Catholic press: we should have expanded
our contacts in the Catholic communications world; and we should
know every district and every state: where a hard-sell Catholic
approach can win over the swing votes. All of this experience
and knowledge can be used in 1970 and put at the President's
discretion in 1972. But we need a Presidential endorsement to
cut through old ideas and new red tape.
Done
PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
an
Dentt follow the
upp
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 15, 1969
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT
Kevin Phillips has done a comprehensive analysis (attached) of the
New Jersey victory of William Cahill. The following seem to be
inescapable conclusions:
1. Cahill's massive victory (half a million votes ) was
brought about by his stitching together the Nixon vote and the
Wallace vote and adding Silent Majority disenchanted Catholic
Democrats.
2. Despite prodigious efforts to make inroads into
the black community in New Jersey, the Jewish community and the
McCarthy suburbanites Cahill's gains were modest at best
and can not possibly explain his 500,000 vote margin, as compared
with RN's 61,000 vote margin.
(note: Where RN's percentage of the New Jersey black
vote ran from eight to ten per cent; Cahill's percentage was some-
where between 15 and 20 per cent. Since the total black vote is only
one hundred thousand, this modest percentage increment cannot
account for a tenth of Cahill's massive plurality. A similar situation
exists among Jewish voters, where Cahill's modest increment over
the President cannot explain any significant fraction of his
half a million plurality.)
3. It was in those areas where Wallace ran quite strong
that, both in terms of percentage and total vote, Cahill outscored
the President's totals by thousands and thousands of votes.
Not only did Cahill in these areas -- get both the Nixon
and Wallace vote but he got the Democratic vote that had been
Wallace and had gone back to Humphrey.
give of he
to
Friday.
-2- -
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
The Cahill race was considered by most observors to be
a toss-up, a non-ideological contest between two men of rather
close and largely liberal views. What made it a landslide were
clearly the President's visit to New Jersey; probably as important
or more important, the election eve speech, separating the country
into the goats and The Great Silent Majority. We also believe
that the direct appeal to the Catholic constituency (half of the
Jersey electorate) was very helpful. In the three attached
ads, especially the final one, run in Catholic diocesan newspapers
went directly and unabashedly after the "Catholic" vote. Meyner
(an apostate Catholic, a fact made known to the Catholic clerical
community) attacked this approach and the GOP in New Jersey
was squeamish about it until the returns came in.
Where is Cahill's victory? Half of New Jersey voters are
Catholic; RN got 35 per cent of them, Wallace 10 per cent of
them -- and Cahill 60 per cent of them. As Senator Goldwater
used to say, "It's as simple as that. 11
THOUGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
It is crystal clear from the above where future victory
for the President and the party in the Northeast lies. It lies
in keeping the Republican party intact -- and in adding to it by the
tens of thousands of "gut" conservative, predominantly Catholic,
Silent Majority Democrats. Let the press squeal about a "Southern
Strategy" all they wish. What they don't seem to realize is that in
addition to adding Southern Protestants by the tens of thousands to
the New Majority, we are making it a national one by adding as
many Northern Catholics.
However, the manner in which the Republican National Committee
seems to allocate its minority resources reflects the reverse
of the political realities as I see them.
Our Catholic division, set up last spring at the direction of
the President and the request of the Committee of Six, consists today of
one girl full-time as compared with the RNC's heavy and permanent
black auxiliary. Now, we should not simply fire blacks and hire Catholics
but we should recognize, again, where the ducks are. Southern Protestants
and Northern Catholics, predominantly months white, are the Consider missing elements this
get
H-
of
much
-3- -
in the Nixon Majority, waiting to join. (Note: Peter Flanigan's
contacts with the Vatican seem to have been most beneficial; their
press is good to the Administration; the Pope is effusive in his
praise for the President; and all this is reflected in the American
Catholic press.)
What we would like is the President's blessing to continue
with our project, to expand it within the RNC if we feel it is
justified. (Harry Dent would be in on this decision.) With a good
running start we should have, by the early fall of 1970, clearly
identified all the national Catholic press: we should have expanded
our contacts in the Catholic communications world; and we should
know every district and every state: where a hard-sell Catholic
approach can win over the swing votes. All of this experience
and knowledge can be used in 1970 and put at the President's
discretion in 1972. But we need a Presidential endorsement to
cut through old ideas and new red tape.
PATRICK J. BUCHANAN
an
Dentt