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From Eddie Mahe to George Bush. RE: Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/1/1973
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WHSF: Contested, 49-51
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This file contains:
From Eddie Mahe to George Bush. RE: Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races. 4 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/1/1973
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Richard M. Nixon's Returned Materials Collection
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Richard Nixon Presidential Library
Contested Materials Collection
Folder List
Box Number
Folder Number
Document Date
No Date
Subject
Document Type
Document Description
49
51
10/1/1973
Campaign
Memo
From Eddie Mahe to George Bush. RE:
Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial
Races. 4pgs.
Monday, June 04, 2012
Page 1 of 1
DOCUMENT WITHDRAWAL RECORD [NIXON PROJECT]
DOCUMENT
DOCUMENT
NUMBER
TYPE
SUBJECT/TITLE OR CORRESPONDENTS
DATE
RESTRICTION
NI
Memo
From Eddie make, Jr. to George
10/1/73
C
[Duc#75]
Bush
Re: Virginia and new Jersey
Subernatorial Races
FILE GROUP TITLE
BOX NUMBER
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE FILES
23
FOLDER TITLE
Presidents' Handwriting October RESTRICTION CODES 1973
A. Release would violate a Federal statute or Agency Policy.
E. Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
B. National security classified information.
financial information.
C. Pending or approved claim that release would violate an individual's
F. Release would disclose investigatory information compiled for law
rights.
enforcement purposes.
D. Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of privacy
G. Withdrawn and return private and personal material.
or a libel of a living person.
H. Withdrawn and returned non-historical material.
NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS ADMINISTRATION
NA FORM 1421 (4-85)
Presidential Materials Review Board
Review on Contested Documents
Collection: President's Office Files
Box Number:
23
Folder:
President's Handwriting October 1973
Document
Disposition
75
Return Private/Political
Republican
National
Committee.
TO:
George Bush
FROM:
Eddie Mahe, Jr.
SUBJECT: Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races
VIRGINIA
A scientific survey taken in early July showed Mills Godwin ahead at that
time but many people doubt that will still be true when we get the initial
results of the survey now in the field. These results are not expected until
October 10th. There are many reasons why there has been erosion but the dominant
one, and the one responsible for most of the other problems, is the attitude of
the candidate. This is true in many ways. His unwillingness to absolutely
identify as a Republican is causing some real problems and will undoubtedly
cause some erosion in base vote. It's not felt SO much that Republicans will
vote for Howell as it is that they just won't vote.
His insistance on controlling most of the campaign functions either
directly or with people who have little or no professional expertise at the
job they are attempting to fill has resulted in a most amateurish operation -
resulting in poor research, poor scheduling, and constantly poor exposure in
the press. The result has been the portrayal of a man very much on the defensive
and somewhat out of touch with today's times. An additional problem in the
campaign area is an arbitrary limit of $625,000 that has been set on campaign
expenditures which rules out several very necessary programs.
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center: 310 First Street Southeast, Washington, D.C. 20003. (202) 484-6500.
-2-
Most of the above is contradicted by our opponent's campaign which appears
to be a highly professional, well-organized, well-funded effort that undoubtedly
has the momentum at this point. All this is being brought about in no small
amount by the maximum support and involvement of organized labor at all levels
of the campaign.
In spite of all the above, hopefully, the race can still be won. First,
60% of all Virginians see themselves as more conservative than Howell, so, if
this fact can be capitalized on, and if Republicans can be pulled to the polls,
then victory may still be possible.
Even though the budget is somewhat less than desirable, a solid hard-
hitting media package has been prepared under the direction of George Young
and Associates of Los Angeles. This includes over 600,000 pieces of rifle shot
direct mail. We can be sure of the quality and directness of the media campaign.
A surrogate operation is getting underway using the state's Republican
congressman and others in an attempt to back Howell down somewhat and maybe, if
we are really lucky and Godwin doesn't give him any more ammunition, we might
even get him on the defensive.
Finally, working with the Republican Party of Virginia, the RNC is attemp-
ting to get a field operation underway which will, at the least, utilize the
pre-existing available resources together with what volunteers can be recruited
and put together some kind of election day pulling effort and, at the very best,
if the Godwin campaign will provide some funding, will put together a highly pro-
fessional saturation effort to absolutely maximize both Republican vote and
friendly Democratic vote in all the 18 target areas around the state.
-3-
NEW JERSEY
The initial survey done in this State also showed our candidate in the
lead but most knowledgeable observers attributed that lead mostly to the
superior name identification of Sandman. Many people think that as Bryne's
name ID has increased he has slipped into the lead but a Pucchi poll leaked to
the press last week supposedly showed Sandman still maintaining a six point lead.
Although a Quale poll is quoted as showing Sandman down 42 to 27 it would seem
we still have a chance to win. In any event, the campaign hopefully has gone
through its worst period.
The first problem, and of course the opportunity to run, was cuased by
the defeat of Governor Cahill in the primary. The state chairman and 19 of
21 county chairman supported the Governor in the primary and many of these
people have since departed the organization. This turnover was complicated
by the fact that the Sandman people spent at least the first 30 days after the
primary celebrating their victory rather than gearing up for the general. The
complete changeover of party personnel at the state level coupled with the fact
that the people introduced into the campaign at the operational level are all
very inexperienced has resulted in organizational chaos. Planning has been
either poor or non existent. Almost any decision that was made was countermanded
by someone else who seemingly had equal status. The amateur problem was com-
pounded by the retention of a press secretary who, while he had good technical
skills, understood nothing about what was involved in the press operations of
a major campaign. Finally, the campaign is suffering from a real financial
crunch with insufficient bucks being raised and, if this situation is not quickly
alleviated, then all might be lost no matter what else is done. There is a
-4-
feeling of confidence that the overall strategy of the campaign is sound and
that the media will totally support that strategy as both are under the control
of Cliff White and Associates of New York.
Our situation in New Jersey is greatly aided by the fact that the campaign
of our opponent has seemed to have at least as many if not more problems than
has ours. The over-whelming presence of organized labor suggests that ultimately
they might get it straightened out though.
Since the campaign is extremely cooperative in every way with the RNC, we
are undertaking a major involvement in the campaign in an attempt to shore up
those areas of greatest weakness, except finances, and hopefully, will pull
the organization into shape for a massive election day effort.
The need to win both races remains paramount, and at this point, both
would seem to be winnable.