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From Ray Price to the President. RE: Cabinet/GOP Leadership Breakfast, the State Dining Room. 26 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
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From Ray Price to the President. RE: Cabinet/GOP Leadership Breakfast, the State Dining Room. 26 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/10/1972
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49
56
10/10/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Ray Price to the President. RE:
Cabinet/GOP Leadership Breakfast, the State
Dining Room. 26 pgs.
Monday, June 04, 2012
Page 1 of 1
ADMINISTRATIVELY
CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT'S FILE
FROM:
RAY PRICE
SUBJECT:
CABINET/GOP LEADERSHIP BREAKFAST
THE STATE DINING ROOM
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 10, 1972
PARTICIPANTS:
The President
Senate Leaders:
Secretary Rogers
Secretary Shultz
*Senator Hugh Scott
Secretary Laird
Senator Robert P. Griffin
Attorney General Kleindienst
Senator Norris Cotton
Under Secretary Campbell
Senator Gordon Allott
Secretary Peterson
Secretary Hodgson
House Leaders:
Secretary Richardson
Secretary Romney
*Representative Gerald R. Ford
Secretary Volpe
Representative Leslie C. Arends
Director Weinberger
Representative John B. Anderson
Counsellor Rumsfeld
*Representative John J. Rhodes
Representative Samuel L. Devine
Congressional Surrogates:
Representative Jack Edwards
(In addition to those preceded
Representative Barber B. Conable, Jr.
by an asterisk)
Representative H. Allen Smith
Senator William E. Brock, III
Women Surrogates:
Senator Henry L. Bellmon
Senator Edward J. Gurney
Hon. Jayne Spain, Vice Chmn. , CSC
Senator Robert Taft, Jr.
Hon. Ethel Walsh, Commissioner, EEO
Representative Jack F. Kemp
Miss Gloria Toote, Asst. Dir., ACTION
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PARTICIPANTS (Continued)
Republican National Committee
White House Staff
Honorable Robert Dole, Chairman
H. R. Haldeman
Honorable Thomas Evans, Co-Chmn. John D. Ehrlichman
Peter M. Flanigan
Committee for the Re-election
William E. Timmons
of the President
Herbert G. Klein
Raymond K. Price, Jr.
Hon. Clark MacGregor, Chmn.
Ronald L. Ziegler
Hon. Frederic Malek
Harry S. Dent
Hon. Jeb Magruder
Charles W. Colson
Alexander P. Butterfield
Finance Committee for the
Robert J. Brown
Re-election of the President
Richard Cook
Tom C. Korologos
Hon. Maurice Stans, Chmn.
Patrick J. Buchanan
Barbara H. Franklin
Others
William L. Gifford
Hon. Herbert Stein, Chmn, CEA
Hon. Frank Shakespeare, Dir, USIA
Hon. Bryce Harlow
Hon. Kenneth Cole, Domestic Council
Mr. arthur Sohmer, Exec Asst to the VP
####
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NOTES FOR THE PRESIDENT'S FILE -- (R. K. Price, Jr.)
CABINET AND REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP BREAKFAST
THE STATE DINING ROOM, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 10, 1972
Guests this morning included not only the Cabinet and the
Republican Congressional Leadership, and the White House and Com-
mittee for the Re-election aides, but also a number of surrogate
speakers. It was the third and last such breakfast held for the
purpose of reviewing the campaign.
Guests assembled for orange juice in the Blue Room, then
moved to their places in the State Dining Room. The President
entered at 8:10. Breakfast was served; at 8:24 the President
began the meeting. He welcomed the guests and noted that there
were several women surrogates present -- and that others were out
on the road. To conduct the meeting, he introduced Clark MacGregor
and John Ehrlichman -- who were set up at the south end of the dining
room, each with a separate lectern, MacGregor on the west and
Ehrlichman on the east. They joked a bit about how they would be
performing as a duo -- running through the country State by State,
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with MacGregor capsuling the political situation and Ehrlichman
highlighting any issues of particular local importance.
Mr. Ehrlichman began by noting that there were certain trends
in the issue polls. First, that the number one issue in all regions
and virtually all States is Vietnam, and the number two issue is
inflation. Second, that weaknesses have been appearing in our posi-
tion among the Spanish speaking, those with incomes of $5, 000-$10, 000,
those with low education and blacks outside of the South. The polls also
show an increasing importance of the issue associated with inflation,
taxes and jobs. People translate inflation into food prices, and this
has brought some erosion of support - - especially in the East and Mid-
west.
In terms of jobs, there has been virtually no change in the Admin-
istration rating on unemployment, but McGovern's support has been
eroding badly.
On taxes, people almost universally think the system is unfair
- - but they have more faith in the President as one to reform it than
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they have in McGovern. McGovern draws a strong negative rating on
taxes.
There has been a significant decline in support for the Adminis-
tration on crime -- especially in the East, and among jews, the young,
blacks and blue collar workers.
Mr. MacGregor led off by noting the Committee is stressing the
people-to-people aspects of the campaign. There is heavy emphasis
on insuring voter turn-out. Telephone, canvassing, direct mail - -
all are being used to increase the percentage of the Republican vote,
with special attention during the last three weeks to key Senate and
House races also.
Overall, are indications our that the President is not lagging in
any State. Many are close, and many show a lopsided preference for
the President. He is strong throughout New England, except for
Massachusetts. He is strong in the South, the border States, the
farm and Rocky Mountain States. He is ahead of the opposition, but
closer in California, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Missouri,
Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington.
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Turning to New England, Mr. MacGregor said "We expect the
President to be almost as happy in 1972 as he was unhappy in 1968. 11
Connecticut shows a low level of opposition activity (Ehrlichman:
Religious issues -- aid to parochial schools and abortion -- are
good ones to avoid in Connecticut.)
Maine, said MacGregor, looks bright. Margaret Chase Smith
looks in good shape, and we have an excellent chance to regain a House
seat. (Ehrlichman: The balance of environment and industry is the
only offbeat issue.)
Massachusetts -- Governor Sargent is working for the President
-- speaking 100 percent favorably (Here there was some joking byplay
between MacGregor and the President over how refreshing and unusual
it was to have the support from Governor Sargent.). Brooke looks sure
of reelection. It's a close State, which the President can win. There's
an increasing amount of McGovern activity. (Ehrlichman: Crime there
is ahead of unemployment and inflation, number two after Vietnam,
especially in urban areas. Then unemployment, then inflation, with
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drugs at the bottom of the top six. Crime is good to talk about in
Massachusetts.)
New Hampshire taxes are a good subject.
Rhode Island -- increasingly surveys show us with a good lead.
Chafee is ahead and should win, and we hope that Herb De Simone will
win as Governor. We've got a closely coordinated Nixon-Chafee-De
Simone effort. (Ehrlichman: Unemployment is number three after
Vietnam and inflation. The U.S. Navy is a big 'employer -- talk about
defense cut-backs.)
Vermont - - no serious problems.
Turning to the Mid-Atlantic States:
Delaware -- RN has a good lead. Senator Boggs has an aggres-
sive, demagogic young opponent waging an irresponsible campaign,
who is giving him trouble.
At this point the President interrupted to ask if there were any-
one here from Delaware. Tom Evans spoke up; the President said
if there is anything anyone can do to help Boggs, do it. But he added
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that there is a delicate line -- if we move in too heavily, it looks as
though we're propping him up in a rescue operation. Senator Scott
chimed in that since Delaware is so hospitable to foreign corporations,
perhaps it would also be hospitable to foreign senators. (Ehrlichman:
local government financing is an offbeat issue in Delaware; a good
place to talk revenue sharing.)
Maryland -- RN has a substantial lead. Here as in Virginia,
there is a potential massive shift of party affiliation. McGovern has
to make it a major target because because of Shriver. (Ehrlichman:
issues depend on where you are. Taxes are big in Baltimore, Vietnam
in the Washington suburbs, busing in Prince Georges county.)
New Jersey -- RN leads, but not as comfortably as in other areas.
We'll put in an increased effort in the next four weeks. There are local
troubles here -- as in Bergen County. McGovern is spending a lot of
time here. Case looks like an easy winner. (Ehrlichman: We're
losing ground on drugs here. Talk drugs.)
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New York -- We're continuing to get good polling here. Emanuel
Celler even said the other day that we're going to carry Brooklyn.
Governor Rockefeller is giving total support, also Javits and Buckley.
The President interrupted to say that the way the conservatives,
Republicans and Democrats for Nixon all are working together in
New York is great -- an excellent example of how the thing should
operate. He recalled someone asking once how Indiana -- so solidly
Republican in Presidential elections -- could have two Senators like
those it has. The answer, he said, was because the Republicans like
fighting each other better than fighting Democrats.
Continuing on New York, Mr. MacGregor noted the opposition
is pouring in heavy resources. We don't see them having much
success. (Ehrlichman: On issues, it depends where you are in New
York -- unemployment is a big issue in the west, crime in New York
City -- get a localized reading.)
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Pennsylvania -- RN is well ahead. The President interjected
that this is another State where are are pulling together. Senator
Scott added that the Republicans were more harmonious than he had
ever seen them, while the Democrats were badly split -- RN has the
support of Mayor Rizzo, and the tacit support of Mayor Flaherty of
Pittsburgh. "It's not our present view that we'll carry Philadelphia,
but we would lose by less than any President since the 1930s. 11 And
we also would carry Allegheny county.
Referring to the disaster victims in the Wilkes-Barre area, the
President commented that "the spirit of those people is something to
behold. We're not doing much better in the kind of suburbia that we
carried in 1960 - - where we are doing better is in the basically ethnic,
middle and lower middle income segments of the wage earners. Wilkes-
Barre is that kind of town. 11 And the main thing is that they want to be
cared about and paid attention to.
Resuming, Mr. MacGregor said Pennsylvania is vital for the
opposition (Ehrlichman: Taxes and Government spending rank right after
Vietnam as issues.
The flood area offers us an opportunity to talk
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about the responsiveness of Government -- but it's worth noting that
taxes there are ahead of inflation as an issue.).
The President spoke again saying that in terms of general
approach, "I can't emphasize too strongly -- in this new constit-
uency -- in the ethnics and the middle class areas around Detroit,
for example -- you can talk about giving them a lot of money for
floods and schools, etc., and you'll get applause, but the biggest
appeal you can make is not to their material needs, but to something
it's hard to put your finger on. A lot of them are first, second or
third generation Americans. They're proud of their citizenship.
You can talk about patriotism, morality -- it means a lot to
them. "
He recalled that when he had visited the flood areas in Wilkes-
Barre, and also earlier when he had inspected flood damage from
Hurricane Camille in Mississippi, this was what had the greatest
appeal -- letting people know that what really counted was their
own character.
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"What's really happening, 11 he said, " - they're giving the lie to
the informed, media-oriented people who believe the country is rotten.
These people want to believe in the country. They're tired of hearing
it run down. So appeal to their sense of patriotism, of morality --
mention the national issues, but end on this sort of thing. 11
Turning now to the South, Mr. MacGregor began with Alabama.
We have no State-wide survey there, but believe the President is far
ahead. The opposition appears to have written off the South. Red
Blount is behind but closing -- he is a possibility for election.
(Ehrlichman: Drugs are number two in Alabama. You also encounter
talk about jobs, especially around Huntsville, etc.)
Arkansas - - Strong in all parts. (Ehrlichman: Nothing out of
the ordinary in terms of issues.)
The President broke in again, continuing his earlier thought,
saying that in the areas of our greatest strength, where there is the
greatest turnover with Democrats coming to our side -- in the South,
in the plains and mountain States, in the ethnic suburbs -- the same
issues, the same themes run through -- confidence in the country,
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morality. If the economy were turning down, they'd be voting the
other way. But it isn't -- and they don't like the supporters the
other candidates have. "Patriotism, love of country, character,
morality -- these people want to believe in something other than
the material things. When the economic issue is not running
against us, we can win these people who are moving from a lower
economic level up into the middle. If there is one issue that really
turns these people on - - they do not want progress that increases
either the cost or the number of the people on welfare. They believe
in the work ethic. 11 The polls won't show it. The pollsters are not
oriented to this kind of issue. But it's a gut issue -- the work ethic,
dignity, morality.
MacGregor again: In Florida, we're well ahead. (Ehrlichman:
A strong interest in defense, and in the employment aspects of space.
Busing is higher here but no longer predominent -- about number seven
on the hierarchy.)
Georgia -- The organization is good. The Senate race is close.
Fletcher Thompson perhaps has a slight edge. (Ehrlichman: There's
less interest in crime here but busing is very high.)
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Kentucky -- Nunn is about even with Huddleston. We have hope
of retaining the Senate seat. There is minimal McGovern activity.
(Ehrlichman: Mining, mine safety, strip mining, etc., are big issues
here.)
Secretary Rogers interjected at this point that "I don't know
anyplace I've been recently that compares with Atlanta for pride of
country, pride in the State and in the city. 11 On a recent visit, he
recalled, he had stayed with the Governor -- who told him that he had
advised McGovern to stay out of Georgia. "It's a booming, gung ho
city."
Louisiana and Mississippi -- These may give RN his biggest
margin. There's no McGovern activity here. (Ehrlichman: Crime
and drugs are big issues here.)
Missouri -- A public survey has shown us with a 25-point lead.
The President broke in again to note that probably one of the real
comers in the GOP is the candidate for Governor in Missouri -- and it
would be the first time in 100 years that the Republicans had elected a
Missouri Governor. He's a terrific fellow and a great campaigner.
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We ought to help him. (Ehrlichman: A good forum to talk about
cooperation on crime. Governor Hearnes has been very complimentary
about Administration help.)
North Carolina -- We're leading 3 to 1. There are close races
for Senator and Governor. Helms is about even. The Gubernatorial
candidate also has a chance.
South Carolina -- Same as North Carolina in the Presidential
race. We hope to pick up one or two house seats. (Ehrlichman:
Welfare is big in the polls. Be prepared to talk about textiles.)
The President broke in again to say that the problem in Virginia,
and North Carolina is that our Senate candidates are so far to the Right
of the Administration that it's hurting them. In effect, they give the
economic issue to their opponents. In the South, in the ethnic suburbs
of the North, if the economic issue is what they are talking about we
lose. We're good on the economic issues -- our middle position is
correct. Southerners are very conservative on such issues as busing.
But North Carolina is very proud, for example, of its great educational
system. If Helms and Scott could just move over a bit they would be in
better shape.
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Tennessee -- Solid for RN. We get reports that Baker's
opponent is closing, but Baker is in good shape. (Ehrlichman:
Busing is the big issue, especially in Nashville.)
Virginia -- RN is maintaining his lead, Scott is behind Spong.
There's a major Democratic effort on the Senate here.
The President broke in again to say that when you go to Virginia
or North Carolina, remember -- hit defense, etc., stay away from the
economy. It's also important, he said, to low key the idea of winning
a Republican House and Senate. This turns on the Democratic estab-
lishment that is concerned about losing seniority. Talk instead about
the candidates as individuals. The Vice President took the only course
possible when he said, in Arkansas and Mississippi, that he was not
there to campaign against McClellan or Eastland. Where you have an
unbeatable Democrat with a strong record of support for us on national
defense, you have a delicate line to keep.
At this point, Senator Brock piped up to say that we have been
missing a bet in the South. We can say, "If you think George McGovern
is a radical, just take a look at the Democratic platform."
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West Virginia -- There's an intense Gubernatorial campaign.
There also is considerable McGovern strength and activity, but we
think we can carry it. (Ehrlichman: On issues, do your homework.
Be a mining expert. Strip mining is a hot issue here. Also the
President's record on black lung is very good.)
Texas -- The polls still show RN with a strong lead, and no
erosion. McGovern is making an all-out effort here. Recent
surveys show Tower ahead, but in a close race. (Ehrlichman: You
can talk about spirit and patriotism here, especially in South Texas,
as the President did on the border. Also, a strong national defense.)
Illinois -- RN has a strong lead, about 2 to 1. Perhaps our
finest organization here of any State.
The President broke in, saying that when Mrs. Nixon was in
Illinois on Columbus Day, and marched with Mayor Daley, she saw
no bad signs. "I guess the Mayor takes care of that, 11 he added, laughing.
And she had an interesting conversation with two or three aldermen.
They told her, "We're teaching our people how to split the ticket. 11
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MacGregor added that Senator Percy is way ahead in his own
Illinois race, and Ogilvie has closed the gap -- it looks as though he
can win.
The President broke in again, to comment that Ogilvie is an
honest man, a good man. He's in trouble because he had to raise
taxes. (Ehrlichman: Vietnam is an especially strong issue in some
parts of Illinois, and favorable for the President. A strong strain of
patriotism, of America as the bastion of freedom.)
Indiana -- A good state for RN. (Ehrlichman: Environment is
an issue here -- especially around Lake Michigan, there is wide-spread
interest.)
Michigan -- RN is leading, but it's close and we need maximum
effort. Griffin is running an excellent campaign. We believe a large
vote will be helpful to us. (Ehrlichman: The issue here is busing --
also unemployment, and taxes.)
Ohio -- A good Republican organization. The opposition is
spending a lot of time to no measurable effect. (Ehrlichman: We get
strong support here on Vietnam. Crime in urban areas is a continuing
problem.)
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At this point the President interrupted to note that there was
an important cloture vote in the Senate at 11 o'clock, and to suggest
just running quickly through the remainder of the report -- focusing
on the key Congressional races, which would be of more interest to
the members of Congress present.
Mr. MacGregor then quickly ticked them off:
Idaho -- The Republican ahead for Jordan's seat.
Iowa -- Miller ahead.
Kansas - - Pearson OK.
Minnesota -- Mondale appears unbeatable.
Montana -- A good chance against Metcalf. (In a State like
Montana, the President commented, it's important to go there - -
they don't see people very often.)
Nebraska -- Carl Curtis OK.
Nevada - - There's a House seat we might win. (The President
noted that the candidate here was an excellent man, a potential Senate
candidate -- SO when you get him in, you're building for the future.)
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New Mexico - - Pete Domenici -- an excellent chance, can win.
North Dakota - - Should win the Governor's seat.
Oklahoma -- The President is strong. The Bartlett-Edmondson
is a toss-up.
South Dakota -- The Presidential race looks good. In the Senate,
the Republican is behind, but we think the Mundt seat can be retained.
Utah -- We have one problem, Sherman Lloyd seems behind.
Wisconsin -- The House races are of greát interest.
Wyoming -- Hansen is well ahead.
John Ehrlichman then took over, noting that in issue terms there
are a few high points in the farm and mountain States. Prices are the
number one issue. (in Nevada, Utah? -- notes not clear) There's a
good chance here to talk very effectively about our results. People
are listening. In Colorado, Montana, Wyoming -- the environment
is moving up. An excellent opportunity to talk about this Administra-
tion's record -- legislation proposed but not enacted -- environmental
reorganization, etc. Farm issues are very high. Be prepared to talk
about the farm problem, the grain deal.
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MacGregor again: In the far West, the President is strong in
Alaska and Hawaii. There's a possibility even of picking up a House
seat in Hawaii.
In Washington and Oregon, the President is ahead but the race
is close. The Hatfield-Morse race is close, now 50-42 Hatfield.
Washington has an odd Gubernatorial race, with a Democratic ex-
Governor running ahead of Governor Evans. The economy here is
looking remarkably strong - - the Administration is given a great deal
of credit.
California -- We're making an intensive effort. Barry Goldwater, Jr.
is facing a tough House race.
The President broke in again, noting that California is one of
those States where getting all the Republicans you lose by one and a half
million. Therefore you've got to crack the Democrats. We're getting
a lot of Humphrey Democrats. In California, whenever you're there,
do not say vote Republican. Even in the Congressional races -- just
say vote for the man.
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Ehrlichman: There is some emergence of the economy, jobs,
prices, taxes as an issue. Look out for the localized issue. Know
your area.
"When in Fresno," the President interjected, laughing, "eat lettuce
and grapes. 11
Clark MacGregor then noted that that ended the State by State
rundown, except for the District of Columbia - - which, he said,
grinning, we have not given up on carrying. He also made a pitch
for the continued importance of funds and fund raising, and the need
of the National campaign for money -- a point which appeared to this
observer to have been aimed at the Congressional contingent, which
has been crying for more money for Congressional races.
He then added that RN is ahead in part because of McGovern's
stumbles, but mostly because of his record in office. We have an
excellent, positive story to tell.
The President then turned the meeting over briefly to Hugh Scott.
The Senator said he would appreciate it if all speakers could be
provided with materials for use in response to McGovern's TV com-
mercials and programs. On Veterans, for example, the Senator noted
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that McGovern is offering the GI benefits that already have been enacted
into law.
Then to Congressman Ford. He said that by ticking off the State
by State count as Mr. MacGregor gave it, he figured that conservatively
it looked as though we could pick up 25 House seats. "I think we can do
better." He also briefly discussed the vote that would be held this
afternoon on the spending ceiling in the House.
Wrapping up the discussion, the President said these are the last
four weeks. We must get out a big vote. A small vote will hurt us, a
big vote will help us. Whenever you have a candidate who represents
for
an extreme view, he will get out his supporters -- whereas/a candidate
representing the majority view, people will not feel that they need to get
out.
Where the polls show a great spread, they can never adequately
show the probable result. In 1964, for example, Gallup never had
Goldwater above 32 percent. He got 39 percent. The reason is that
his people came out.
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Narrowing the gap will make the difference between carrying in
and not carrying in our House and Senate candidates. Studies have
shown that each one percent in the Presidential vote can make a
difference of one Congressional seat. In 1946, we won the Congress.
In 1948 we lost it. In 1950 we began a comeback. Then in 1952,
Eisenhower ran 6 million votes ahead -- 55-45 percent -- and elected
a Republican House and Senate. We can make the case on a more
subtle basis - - speak of it as a decision by all of the people, on an
issue so important that all of the people must take part in the decision.
"Lots of you will be concerned about the attacks that will be made.
They're escalating the rhetoric. The best thing is to stay right on the
line you are on -- more in sorrow than in anger. The contrast should
be -- we're hitting hard on the issues. It's legitimate to point out
that one man is for cutting our defenses, and making us second in
military strength, and for adding a $100 billion of programs to the
budget.
"When you don't have the facts on your side, what you do is
engage in what they are doing. Don't react in kind.
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"Hecklers will appear. Our philosophy is that the right of free
speech means keeping your mouth shut when someone else is speaking.
"Don't get in a position where both sides are doing it (engaging
in vicious attacks). 11
He then went on to speak of how important the work of the surro-
gates is -- even though most of the time they do not get on national TV.
"But locally, you get enormous play, and that's enormously important. 11
He then mentioned the opposition's charge that this is the most
corrupt Administration in history. "They're talking about Watergate,
the grain deal, etc. But not once in four years has personal corruption
been proved involving Presidential appointees. I know the members of
this Administration. We don't even allow them to take free hotel rooms.
When they raise this issue it's because they're digging hard to find some-
thing to attack us on. 11 There may have been some mistakes in judgment,
he added. For example, Assistant Secretary Palmby's. But in that
case, we ourselves did not know until July 8th that we would have a
wheat deal with the Soviet Union.
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"Corruption is a legitimate issue when it's there. But this is
an honest Administration. "
With that, the meeting ended at 10:17.