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From Robert C. Mardian to Clark Mac Gregor RE: The McGovern Campaign. 26 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
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From Robert C. Mardian to Clark Mac Gregor RE: The McGovern Campaign. 26 pgs. [Subject: Campaign] [Memo], 10/12/1972
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50
42
10/12/1972
Campaign
Memo
From Robert C. Mardian to Clark Mac
Gregor RE: The McGovern Campaign.
26pgs.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Page 1 of 1
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memo
Robert (1. mardian 90 mae Gregon,
10/12/72
< (arifor)
[Doc 16]
re: The me Govern Campaign
[ attached are cover note, therm{?}
towoods, n.d.]
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Return Private/Political
Committee for the Re-election of the President
October 12, 1972
MEMORANDUM
MEMORANDUM FOR:
CLARK MAC GREGOR
FROM:
ROBERT C. MARDIAN
SUBJECT:
The McGovern Campaign
Based upon our tracking of the McGovern campaign for the past
four weeks, we have reached the following conclusions.
I. McGovern Targeted States
It appears that McGovern has written off the South, and,
except for the states enumerated below, will rely chiefly on
the national media and local state campaigns to carry the burden.
A. Large states (20 electoral votes or more) -
California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois,
Ohio, and Michigan
B. Medium states (more than 8 electoral votes) -
Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Minnesota,
Wisconsin, Missouri, Washington, Connecticut, and Iowa
C. Small states (less than 8 electoral votes) -
Oregon and Rhode Island
These states total 18 in number, representing 295 electoral
votes.
It is estimated that, with the exception of Iowa, opposition
campaign activities will be in direct proportion to the number
of electoral votes in the states mentioned. Although it is
believed the candidates and surrogates will concentrate as
stated above, it is obvious that McGovern is concentrating on
certain constituencies and Shriver on others.
II. Polling Trends and Their Effect on Campaign Strategy
Our polls are consistent and in most states are showing a
comfortable lead. On the other hand, Larry O'Brien, in a recent
SM
- 2 -
interview pointed out that the McGovern pollster Pat Caddell has
findings not in line with Gallup and Harris which show Texas
clearly winnable. Our tracking indicates that Caddell is pre-
sumably factoring in subjective political information to which
we are not privy. This fact is most evident from the dispropor-
tionate amount of time and money that McGovern is spending in
the states of Texas and Iowa. Caddell's inputs may include
successful registration drives, long established campaign organi-
zations in primary states in which McGovern campaigned extensively,
or specific state issues on the ballot, i.e., leaglized marijuana
in California and state income tax repeal in Ohio, which, it is
reported, will draw voters to the polls who may otherwise have
stayed home. California's unique situation showing no appreciable
gains for the President among blacks or Chicanos could be such
an input.
III. Issues and Their Effect on Campaign Strategy
With certain exceptions, McGovern has a campaign strategy
national in nature. We anticipate McGovern and Shriver will
continue to play to their own strengths. Indications are that
McGovern will concentrate on foreign policy, speaking out on
international relations, principally the Vietnam War, and touch
on corruption in government. Since Shriver's catastrophic
statement on the President's passing up the chance for peace in 1969,
he has not, with rare exception, spoken out on international relations.
We anticipate that Shriver will continue emphasizing principally
domestic issues such as corruption in government and promising to
do more for the discontent. These issues appeal to different
constituencies and effect what each does and where he goes. Our
reports cause us to believe they will continue that strategy.
IV. Media Activity and Its Portents
Based upon all evidence submitted to date, it would appear
McGovern will use as much media as he can afford, specifically
television. Initial reports from his Vietnam speech would indicate
it was well-received in the Midwest, and it is reported his
people are canvassing that speech to learn the impact.
Most literature is being produced locally, geared to specific
state and local issues, with disclaimers other than McGovern/Shriver.
We expect this situation to continue.
The only consistent use of print has been finance ads running
four columns to a full page asking for support and money. This
- 3 -
or a similar one will probably be used up to Election Day.
Radio spots in most states are controlled by local committees
and their use will depend on state budgets.
We can anticipate a major get-out-the-vote effort to supplement
their successful registration drives in major states.
V. Conclusion
Based upon all the evidence submitted to date, it would
appear, with exceptions as noted in state summaries, that the
over-all McGovern campaign will continue its efforts to bring
the old line Democratic constituency back to the fold. McGovern,
as distinguished from Shriver, can be expected to plow substan-
tially the same ground he did in the primaries. His attempts
to move to the center have resulted in an erosion of the con-
stituency that gave him the nomination. We can expect the
opposition to exploit certain statewide issues that may have
particular appeal to their constituency.
Detailed back-up information for each of the above states
is attached in alphabetical order. Conclusions for the seven
large states are:
CALIFORNIA
Subject to the reason for the recent change in the State Campaign
Chairman, it looks like they will run like they did in the Primary.
They will capitalize on the increase in Democrat registrations.
They will make no serious attempt to work with and gain the
support of party regulars. This will permit them the emotional
and active support of their youthful volunteer corps, which will
in turn free up money for media use. We anticipate the candidates,
surrogates and volunteers will continue to harvest their votes
with the people and in the area where their vote is. The media
campaign, especially television, which is free from local control,
will concentrate on Middle America. The strategy is and will, we
anticipate, be dictated by the effects of the Humphrey Primary
campaign against McGovern in California. At this point, our lead,
relatively small as it is, is holding firm. There is nothing on
the McGovern side of the slate to indicate there will be any
erosion of our lead.
- 4 -
ILLINOIS
We can anticipate the increased Daley effort through labor and
party regulars to have an effect. It is a must state for McGovern
and Daley is fighting to save his own ticket and we should presume
that for the remainder of the campaign they will work together.
No significant voter change is reported at this time.
MICHIGAN
We may anticipate the increased rapport between McGovern and labor
that will affect his standing. Our polls and Michigan people indicate
we can improve our margin with a candidate swing through Northern
Michigan which could increase our support substantially.
NEW YORK
Reform versus regulars keeps McGovern from pursuing a regular
campaign. Congressman Stratton, Governor Harriman, Congressman
Celler, and other prominent Democrats still are smarting from
"quotas" and other rule changes fail to give back-up to McGovern
visits and television shows.
The biggest thing going for McGovern is Republican apathy.
It seems he is centering his activity to get out his hard core
vote with the hopes the rest will stay away in sufficient numbers
to give him a win. (It was his hard core that gave him wins in
the primaries.)
OHIO
McGovern reported to have conducted a very successful voter
registration drive, concentrating on college students and blacks.
A last minute effort to get out the vote to repeal the state
income tax can be anticipated to have substantial effect on voter
turnout. This is a must state for McGovern and increased activity
can be anticipated. However, no significant voter change is noted
to date.
PENNSYLVANIA
McGovern can be anticipated to hit the smaller industrial
cities of Pennsylvania concentrating on unemployment and the blue
collar worker and to continue his efforts to bring the unions and
the Democratic rank and file together and under his banner. No
significant voter change is reported at this time.
Su
- 5 -
TEXAS
We must anticipate that the heavy lopsided registration will
affect the ultimate vote, but no significant voter change is
noted at this time.
SM
10/11
CALIFORNIA
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has spent five full days in California with three and
one half more scheduled before October 20. Shriver has been in the
state for five days. Mrs. McGovern completed five days stumping the
state on October 10. It is clearly their top priority state.
Both candidates and surrogates are giving wide berth to tra-
ditional Republican areas and concentrating on Los Angeles and strong
Democratic areas. Other than for fund raising purposes they are con-
centrating on areas and people where one would expect them to concne-
trate, i.e., the Bay Area and Sacramento (in addition to Los Angeles),
with labor, youth, blacks, Chicanos, and Jewish constituencies.
Humphrey's foray was for support of labor, blacks, Jews, and fund
raising activities.
II. POLLS
The latest polls show McGovern picking up in the areas in which he
and his surrogates are working, but not significantly. The 30-minute
documentary which was run on October 1 without the advertising backup
used in the Chicago area started with the Nielson rating of 8.3 but
dropped to 6.3. California is unique in that the President does not show
the appreciable gains with either blacks or Chicanos we have found in
other states. Canvassing continues to show that we are getting 40%
of the total Democratic vote.
III. ISSUES
They are concentrating on the same issues used to advantage in
the California Primary. Although the recent change in the Campaign
Chairman may portend a change with respect to the thrust of the campaign,
it now appears that they will continue to hit on Vietnam, corruption in
government, unemployment, wages, prices, and the lot of the disadvantaged
generally.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activity has been heavy, especially television spots. It is
anticipated that media activity will increase. Considerable do-it-
yourself pieces are beginning to appear with disclaimers other than
CALIFORNIA (con't.)
McGovern/Shriver. There are also increases in bumper stickers, etc.,
but not the sharp increase that was seen before the California Primary.
V. CONCLUSION
Subject to the reason for the recent change in the State Campaign
Chairman, it looks like they will run like they did in the Primary.
They will capitalize on the increase in Democrat registrations. They
will make no serious attempt to work with and gain the support of
party regulars. This will permit them the emotional and active support
of their youthful volunteer corps, which will in turn free up money for
media use. We anticipate the candidates, surrogates and volunteers will
continue to harvest their votes with the people and in the area where
their vote is. The media campaign, especially television, which is free
from local control, will concentrate on Middle America. The strategy
is and will, we anticipate, be dictated by the effects of the Humphrey
Primary campaign against McGovern in California. At this point, our
lead, relatively small as it is, is holding firm. There is nothing on
the McGovern side of the slate to indicate there will be any erosion of
our lead.
10/11
CONNECTICUT
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has made two campaign stops in the State, August 10th
to Hartford for a tour of Aetna Life and a meeting at St. Georges
Greek Orthodox Church. On September 14th, McGovern went to Waterbury
Green for a Rally with Kennedy which drew big crowds and "fantastic"
press statewide. O'Brien spoke at a fund raiser in Hartford early in
October, which had been postponed two weeks because of low ticket sales.
Salinger was in for a speech at the University of Hartford. Mrs. McGovern
did a one-stop in Hartford last week - a Senior Citizens' home - and
left the state. No known future visits.
II. POLLS
The Connecticut Poll released October 9th by the Hartford Times
(Decision Research) gives Nixon 59%, McGovern 23%, and Undecided 18%.
Three of the four Democrat incumbents and both Democratic candi-
dates are supporting McGovern. The exception is Giamo who says he is
running alone. Monagen (D inc) is in a 50-50 race with Sarasin, a
reapportioned district.
III. ISSUES
The McGovern people are concentrating on domestic issues and Vietnam.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
The Democratic campaign is still having internal difficulties, but
they are canvassing and turning out daily press releases. Registration is
still open and going 2 to 1 Democratic, mostly rew voters. There is
little paid media or McGovern literature.
V. CONCLUSION
Another visit or two, at least from surrogates and a statewide
mailing is expected. No known factors would indicate a change in
voter preference.
84
10/11
ILLINOIS
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in Illinois eleven days between August 15 and
October 11. Shriver has been there six days between September 20 and
October 12. McGovern is concentrating primarily on college campuses,
party regulars, blacks, and fund raisers. He should spend a minimum
of two more days in Illinois - one in East St. Louis and one on the
last week of the campaign marching in Daley's torchlight parade.
McGovern seems to be following Daley's every suggestion and Daley, in
turn, exhibiting some concern about his own ticket has called in labor
and party leaders exhorting them to stay loyal, work hard and get out
the vote. McGovern crowds have not been outstanding.
II. POLLS
Our polls indicate a solid 15 to 20% polling lead at this time.
III. ISSUES
Vietnam, unemployment, inflation, and scandal with no particular
concentration on any.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activity is increasingly heavy, particularly television spots.
V. CONCLUSION
We can anticipate the increased Daley effort through labor and party
regulars to have an effect. It is a must state for McGovern and Daley
is fighting to save his own ticket and we should presume that for the
remainder of the campaign they will work together. No significant
voter change is reported at this time.
Sh
10/11
IOWA
I.
CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has made two trips, one a farm tour to Waukee, and on
October 6th a fund raiser and "peoples dinner" in Des Moines. Shriver
spent two days in the state doing a farm tour, college and headquarters
visit in Dubuque September 14th, followed by a Drake University rally,
Almagamated Meat Cutters Association speech and headquarters visit in
Des Moines on September 27th. Shriver returns October 13 for events
in Cedar Rapids. Surrogates Eunice Shriver, Tunney, Lincoln, Lindsay,
MacLaine, and Kennedy have been in.
II.
POLLS
The October 1 Des Moines Register poll showed Nixon with 64% and
McGovern with 27% (Nixon up 10% from August 14 poll). McGovern is
getting good coverage and lots of space. Some television spots running
and ad appeals for money. Congressional candidates are taking no posi-
tion except Clark (Democrat for the Senate seat) and Miller is showing
58% to 35% in the Register poll. Canvassing and registration efforts
are being made in the major cities. Campus registrations are heavy.
Reports are Des Moines dinner for October 6 sold 4,000 $5 tickets, a
big crowd for the area.
III.
ISSUES
Corruption in high places (wheat and Watergate), Vietnam and the
aged are the main issues McGovern has touched on in Iowa. He is scoring
on the wheat issue according to selective polling but the Polls continue
to show an upward trend notwithstanding.
IV.
MEDIA ACTIVITY
Reported slanted against us but not to any great extent. Some
spots running.
V.
CONCLUSION
All indications would anticipate increase of activity and expendi-
tures. Caddell's. private polling information or the nationwide support
from United Farmers Organization, whose home base is Iowa, or McGovern's
close friendship with Senator Hughes might explain the concentration of
money and effort in this state with 8 electoral votes and the published
polls clearly indicating a McGovern defeat.
10/11
MARYLAND
I.
CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
On September 15, McGovern met in Baltimore with State Trade
Unions and on September 30, attended the City Fair and had a rally at
Pier I. October 8, Sargent and Mrs. Shriver attended a group of
receptions in Baltimore. Mrs. McGovern is scheduled into Frederick on
October 12, event unknown. CRP feels this area was selected because of
large undecided vote in the county.
Mayor Schaefer stated publicly he would not welcome McGovern and
Shriver to Baltimore and Mandel did not show until McGovern Rally was
over. Shriver's 16-stop "reception" was disastrous. Other than the
Mandel stop where 200 Catholics attended, others were nil. The press
ridiculed the entire operation.
II. POLLS
No state polls are available. The General Motors Assembly Plant
poll went 53.5% Nixon 42.3% McGovern and Senator Beall's poll of 1800
Democrats had Nixon showing 60% in Prince Georges County and 44% in
Montgomery County.
III. ISSUES
Vietnam, crime, corruption in government and taxes were the
theme of McGovern's rally speech.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
The McGovern crowds not spectacular, and press coverage lukewarm.
This past week, the state campaign has started spending money. Lots of
literature has appeared at fairs, shopping centers, etc.
McGovern people have been blitzing the Jewish and Black shopping
centers on registration. CRP figures they have recently obtained money.
Heavy television ads have been running on the Baltimore stations.
V.
CONCLUSION
Expect increased media activity and additional visit by surrogates
or candidates. An effort will be made to get out their vote. No
significant voter change is noted.
10/11
MASSACHUSETTS
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in Massachusetts two days, October 3 and October
11, and Shriver has been there one day as a candidate. Apparent lack
of candidate effort should not mislead. October 11 was a statewide
McGovern day with a substantial number of innovative activities
supporting him being executed throughout the state. The effort is
diversified, interesting and well organized, i.e., paintings for McGovern,
fund raisers, art shows and sales, teas, etc. Reports indicate a
well-planned organizational effort which presumably can be held to-
gether through election day.
II. POLLS
Our polls indicate we are slightly ahead.
III. ISSUES
McGovern issues are the war, unemployment and youth, though
McGovern's indecisiveness has in itself become an issue.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activity is reported to be substantial and on the increase.
Additional free coverage is anticipated from the statewide McGovern Day.
V. CONCLUSION
It is important to note that Massachusetts has an all-time high
in voter registration of almost 3 million for the September 19 Primary
and that the Secretary of State extended voter registration through
October 10 for Presidential and Vice Presidential voting only. Except
for Eisenhower, no Republican Presidential candidate has carried this
state since 1924, and McGovern has a Kennedy in-law on the ticket.
However, no significant voter change is noted at this time. A must
state for McGovern, but one in which exploitation of our present lead
can cause McGovern to expend time and money he needs elsewhere.
10/11
MICHIGAN
I.
CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in Michigan for six days between September 12
and October 10 and Shriver for four days from September 6 to October 6.
They are concentrating on industrial areas and spending inordinate time
attempting to secure the labor support which is tantamount to the
Democratic regulars. They are reported to be succeeding in this effort.
II.
POLLS
Our polls show a 15 to 20% lead and local polls report the same
spread. We are strong in the Grand Rapids area with a reported 40%
lead there and we are reported to be marginal in the Flint area.
III. ISSUES
Without a doubt, busing overshadows all other issues, though
unemployment, crime and drugs are emphasized. We are considered weak
among the aged voters and McGovern is reported to be making an effort
in that direction stressing inflation, general high cost of living,
and Social Security.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activity is reported to be increasingly heavy though no
special effect is reported to be felt from it as yet.
V.
CONCLUSION
We may anticipate increased rapport between McGovern and labor
will affect his standing. Our polls and Michigan people indicate we
can improve our margin with a candidate swing through Northern Michigan
which could increase our support substantially. At the moment, no
significant voter change reported.
10/11
MINNESOTA
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has made three trips into this state, with another
scheduled for October 12th. Shriver has been in the state four times.
With the exception of a farm festival in Mankato with Kennedy, McGovern
has concentrated on the Minneapolis area. Shriver has covered both
Minneapolis and Duluth, the population centers of the state. Humphrey
is spending time in his home state on behalf of the ticket and is
producing results among farm and labor groups. Marlo Thomas and Shirley
MacLaine have each done campus rallies and visited Vietnam veterans.
II. POLLS
Late polls have McGovern trailing 23%, but all predictions are
that this will close into a very tight race.
III. ISSUES
They have stayed with Vietnam, corruption in government, wages
and prices, and McGovern hit the wheat deal, which had little impact
due to the late wheat crop in this state.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Five minute spots have been running and full page ads for money.
The store front operations are active with heavy volunteer support
from students. Canvassing by phone and some blitzing of shopping
centers continues. A big get-out-the-vote effort is anticipated.
V. CONCLUSION
With the party regulars in line and ample volunteer help, they will
concentrate on registration and turning out their vote. We expect
Humphrey to continue stumping effectively and a trip by the candidates.
A heavy television-radio campaign is not anticipated but indications
are there will be one or possibly two statewide mailers. The domestic
issues and Vietnam will continue to be targeted. Humphrey is calling
the shots in his home state and will continue to do so.
10/11
MISSOURI
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern made his first visit into the state October 6-7 with
stops in Kansas City for a rally and then to St. Louis for the
Eagleton Award dinner, a Sears Store voter registration drive and a
shopping center rally. Kennedy will stump the state on November 1st.
II. POLLS
Polls are following the national trend with Eagleton backlash
prominent.
III. ISSUES
Issues continue to be war and wheat. The St. Louis dinner was
attended by the gubernatorial and Congressional candidates and McGovern
made a strong pitch for party unity.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
McGovern is running heavy television spots and some radio spots.
No mailers have been noted. There is spotty canvassing and a regis-
tration effort at college campuses. Almost no campaign literature is
visible except bumper stickers. Hand bills and telephoning were
used to draw a crowd of approximately 25,000, mostly young people,
for the St. Louis Rally. Some store fronts are open in major cities.
V. CONCLUSION
All indications would anticipate an increase of activity and
expenditures. McGovern left the state with an impression of a unified
party and an effort will be made to marshall forces to turn out their
vote. No significant voter change is noted at this time.
SM
10/11
NEW JERSEY
I.
CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in New Jersey three days, meeting with state
politicians, labor leaders, Jewish leaders and Jewish News Editors in
Newark, Bergen Co. and Atlantic City. He had a large rally with Muskie
in Newark on September 20th and another downtown rally October 2nd.
Shriver attended a picnic in Essex County on September 17. Humphrey
was in for a rally on October 11th. McGovern has scheduled a return
to New Jersey on October 20th. CRP reports the following: October 17-
27, Shriver; October 20-21, Kennedy; October 25, Humphrey; October 7,
Frank Church; October 22, Mankewiecz; and October 22, Governor John
Gilligan. Mrs. McGovern, Shirley MacLaine, Jon Voight, etc. have
stumped the state.
II.
POLLS
Polling has remained constant with low undecided vote.
III. ISSUES
Corruption, welfare, Vietnam and taxes are the main issues.
IV.
MEDIA ACTIVITY
Press coverage has been heavy and for the most part favorable.
Democrats were disappointed in crowd size of the McGovern October 2
rally at which the Mayor, Congressional candidates, Former Governor
Hughes, and lesser lights appeared. Majority of the attendance was
bused in from outside Newark.
Twenty-five storefronts have been opened in the past two weeks
and are showing activity. John O'Sullivan who handled McGovern primaries
has been assigned to the state and the campaign is moving. The State
Committee is running radio and print ads for money. Full page ads
backed McGovern rally. Democrats have requested voter registration
lists and are attempting to rent entire motels for the last three days
before the election in Union, Bergen, and Essex counties. CRP suspects
these will be used for get-out-the-vote activities.
V.
CONCLUSION
Increased state campaign activity supported by candidate visits
is anticipated together with heavy media expenditures. The Nixon vote
looks solid and no voter change is expected.
10/11
NEW YORK
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been to New York twelve times with enumerable
visits by surrogates. He has concentrated on New York City, but has
hit high unemployment areas -- Albany, Niagara Falls, Buffalo, and
Rochester. This state has been his most lucrative fund-raising area
and he has wooed the Jewish vote. He concentrates on Blacks, ethnics,
Puerto Ricans, the poor, and the aged.
Salinger, Fonda, Clark, POW wife Kushner, Kennedy, Muskie,
O'Brien, etc. continue to flood New York. McGovern's biggest crowds
came with Kennedy or Muskie accompanying him.
II. POLLS
Polls indicate Nixon ahead except in certain heavily Democrat
burroughs of New York City. Queens Democratic organization split is
reflected in poll where McGovern lost much support. Blacks support
McGovern 9 to 1, but Nixon has doubled his support amongst the Jews
who represent 10% of the New York vote. Queens Democrat leader Matt
Troy (also McGovern Urban Affairs Director) says McGovern is 300,000
votes behind as of October 4th. Yankelovich has Nixon 57 to 26.
III. ISSUES
Flyers, ads, television, and speeches all hit inflation, war,
Israel, welfare, and unemployed. These have local disclaimers and
appear effective. All are geared directly to New York and appear to
be do-it-yourself. Corruption issues are hit in speeches along with
crime and drugs.
McGovern is zeroing in on the disenchanted -- a negative
campaign that witnessed his first personal attack on Nixon, plus
charges of corruption in high places. These charges are echoed by
Shriver and in many instances amplified. Surrogates pound harder and
make wilder charges.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Heavy with television spots on the war and economy. Newspaper
advertisements seek volunteers and contributions.
84
- 2 -
V. CONCLUSION
Reform versus regulars keeps McGovern from pursuing a regular
campaign. Congressman Stratton, Governor Harriman, Congressman Celler,
and other prominent Democrats still are smarting from "quotas" and
other rule changes fail to give back-up to McGovern visits and
television shows.
The biggest thing going for McGovern is Republican apathy. It
seems he is centering his activity to get out his hard core vote with
the hopes the rest will stay away in sufficient numbers to give him a
win. (It was his hard core that gave him wins in the primaries.)
10/11
OHIO
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in Ohio seven days between August 15 and October 5.
Shriver has been there six days between September 7 and October 3. McGovern
is concentrating on northern industrial areas, courting (without apparent
success) organized labor. Shriver has concentrated on Southwest Ohio.
McGovern can be expected to hit Toledo, Akron, Canton, Youngstown areas
and perhaps Dayton to bolster his chances with the working man. Crowds
are not good; a general distrust of McGovern seems to have set in.
II. POLLS
Polls indicate we are a solid 15 to 20% ahead. Democratic
candidates are generally supporting McGovern, but labor leadership
has declined to endorse either candidate.
III. ISSUES
McGovern is using no special issue in Ohio and all indications
lead to conclusion that without a special issue the soft Democratic vote
will stay home -- BUT -- there is a special issue in the making -- repeal
of the state income tax. An effort to keep it off the ballot was argued
in the Supreme Court of Ohio this week with little chance of success.
State party canvasses indicate the income tax repeal issue would draw
low income workers to the polls in great numbers. Without this issue
most of these voters would be expected to stay home. The additional
motivation to vote created by the income tax repeal issue is probably not
reflected in our polls and should be carefully considered in light of
the disastrous effect of the right to vote issue in Ohio in 1958.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activities have been heavy, especially television spots,
concentrating on the working man in Northern Ohio.
V. CONCLUSION
McGovern reported to have conducted a very successful voter regis-
tration drive, concentrating on college students and blacks. A last
minute effort to get out the vote to repeal the state income tax can be
anticipated to have substantial effect on voter turnout. This is a must
SM
OHIO (con't.)
state for McGovern and increased activity can be anticipated. However,
no significant voter change is noted to date.
10/11
OREGON
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern and Shriver have each made one visit to Portland.
McGovern is scheduled back in Portland for a downtown rally on October
13. Kennedy and Humphrey are scheduled for late October. McGovern
is hitting hard for the youth and senior citizen vote.
II. POLLS
Late September polling shows McGovern at 39%, with 11% undecided,
and strong support among young voters.
III. ISSUES
Main issues are Vietnam, aid for aged, inflation, and taxes
obviously based on their assessment of voter strength.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
McGovern is running considerable number of television spots and
some radio. A statewide financial mailer is out. Full page financial
ads have run in major city papers, and a back-up ad for the McGovern
television documentary ran one day. The state campaign is building a
strong grass roots organization that is canvassing and blitzing. A
large registration effort was successful among the youth.
V. CONCLUSION
McGovern sees Oregon as a state he can win. He worked hard before
the primary and his campaign organization remains. Wayne Morse is
giving him all out support. Kennedy will speak on college campuses
late in the month. A successful letter to the editor program is running
statewide. The media campaign will be heavy and a get-out-the-vote
effort is being organized.
10/11
PENNSYLVANIA
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITY
McGovern has been in Pennsylvania for six days between August 21
and October 11 and Shriver has been there nine days between September 10
and October 11. McGovern is concentrating on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
though his crowds have been small, advancing poor and crowd reaction
restrained. Both McGovern and Shriver are spending time in private
meetings with party regulars and labor leaders attempting to get their
support.
II. POLLS
Our polls show a 15 to 20% lead, but soft. Local polls are
reported to give us a greater lead.
III. ISSUES
McGovern, for the time being at least, diverting from his usual
issue pattern, is making flood damage the key issue with apparent
success, followed by Vietnam, crime, drugs, and unemployment.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Media activity and coverage is reported to be fair at the local level.
V. CONCLUSION
McGovern can be anticipated to hit the smaller industrial cities
of Pennsy vania concentrating on unemployment and the blue collar
worker and to continue his efforts to bring the unions and the Democratic
rank and file together and under his banner. No significant voter
change is reported at this time.
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10/11
RHODE ISLAND
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern made one visit, August 11, to a Senior Citizens' home,
a downtown Providence Rally, and a walking tour and lunch with Governor
Licht. Shriver was scheduled in for September 22, but cancelled. He
did march in the Columbus Day Parade and immediately left town (no
speech). No future scheduling is known at this time.
II. POLLS
The only poll we have is August 5-12, from the Providence Journal
showing Nixon 46%, McGovern 25%, and Undecided 29%.
III. ISSUES
In McGovern's August 11 speech, he hit hard on the domestic issues.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
Both Congressional incumbent Democrats attended the McGovern rally.
Pell introduced McGovern. There are ten storefronts open in the state,
all of which are active. There is some canvassing going on, but little
McGovern literature throughout the state. One full-page ad ran as a
back-up to the McGovern television documentary. Also, an ad addressed
to Italian Americans to see Shriver in the parade. Six column ads
run three times for money for the Democratic hopefuls. Only one
television spot has been used in Rhode Island, with McGovern talking
with Veterans and appealing for contributions.
V. CONCLUSION
A get-out-the-vote drive and statewide mailer are anticipated. No
significant voter change is noted at this time.
10/11
TEXAS
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern has been in Texas four times between August 22 and
September 10, and is scheduled into Waco, Corpus Christi, Houston, and
San Antonio on October 16 and 17. Shriver has been there four days
between September 13 and September 27. McGovern is strong in Houston
and Corpus Christi area (notwithstanding our strong statewide strength)
and he is concentrating on these areas.
II. POLLS
Our polls indicate a solid 15 to 20% lead and Texas Party polls
and canvassing are reported to indicate a substantially larger lead with
one poll showing a 40% margin. Texas Party canvassing shows the
President receiving in Dallas County almost twice as much support as
in 1968, i.e., 36% to 70%. O'Brien claims the Caddell Poll indicates
McGovern time and money expenditure in Texas is worthwhile. We must,
therefore, assume that Caddell has taken into consideration subjective
political factors that go beyond mere polling of voters. One such
factor that may be significant is the substantial voter registration
drive that was conducted in Texas in which the Democratic Party is
believed to have out-registered us by substantial margins, particularly
concentrating on black voters. Perhaps, a commitment of LBJ to support
McGovern could be another such factor or the desire of certain Democrats
to diminish the accomplishments of John Connally in Texas could account
for the McGovern activities.
III. ISSUES
McGovern is attempting to straddle the issues in Texas concen-
trating on the war, unemployment, and crime, and ducking his call for
less defense spending.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
McGovern media activity is increasing.
V. CONCLUSION
We must anticipate that the heavy lopsided registration will affect
the ultimate vote, but no significant voter change is noted at this time.
SM
10/11
WASHINGTON
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern made three trips to Seattle in September and is scheduled
back October 13. Shriver visited the Pike Place Market and did extensive
press on September 12 in Seattle. Mrs. McGovern was there October 10-11
and Kennedy is due October 26.
McGovern has concentrated on the labor and youth vote.
II. POLLS
No professional polling information is available. CRP canvass
results show Nixon with 54%, McGovern with 20%, and undecided with 26%.
III. ISSUES
Unemployment, Vietnam, and inflation are the key issues and no
change is anticipated in this depressed area.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
The McGovern rallies turned out large crowds and press coverage
was heavy for both candidates. Two statewide finance mailers have gone
out with a third rumored. Television schedule was increased this week
and radio has been added. The Democratic State Chairman continues to
announce they will ring every doorbell but there is no evidence to support
it.
V. CONCLUSION
Due to the large undecided vote and economy of the area, McGovern
has targeted Washington a key state. We anticipate increased activity
and expenditures and a continuation of his negative campaign to the
disenchanted.
10/11
WISCONSIN
I. CANDIDATES' AND SURROGATES' ACTIVITIES
McGovern says, "Wisconsin is one of my 17 target states" and his
four visits since convention makes nearly 50 visits when primary totals
are added. Shriver has four. Several surrogates have visited Milwaukee,
Madison, and Green Bay. Shriver's visit included a fund raiser with
unions.
II. POLLS
Polling in various parts of the state show Nixon leading after
trailing earlier with 15 to 20% lead, but considered soft. Three
Congressional candidates running against GOP incumbents are "actively
supporting" McGovern, while incumbent Democrat Zablocki remains "cool."
III. ISSUES
The war, tax reform, and corruption (wheat, ITT) are the main
thrust of speeches. McGovern has catered to the labor and ethnics but
Shriver has his heaviest concentration with labor groups.
IV. MEDIA ACTIVITY
All visits have had advance publicity but crowds have been below
average. The McGovern Rally in Milwaukee on September 19 drew 2-3,000,
mostly youths. Muskie who was scheduled to attend, did not show.
V. CONCLUSION
It is important to note that the McGovern organization was sixteen
months in the making prior to the Wisconsin Primary and has continued to
build from that date. It is actively supported by Governor Lucey in a
state that has two Democratic senators. Further, Wisconsin has a
disproportionate high number of college students and McGovern registration
efforts have been substantial within that group. Notwithstanding the polls,
Wisconsin would appear to be a close state.