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MIDDLE AMERICA IN POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE A Proposed Survey of Middle-Income Voter Attitudes Toward the Nixon Administration, Issues, Personalities, Parties and Ideology A Research Proposal Prepared for Charles W. Colson, Special Counsel to the President by BECKER RESEARCH CORPORATION 120 Boylston Street Boston, Massachusetts January 1971 Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. FOREWORD 1 II. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 3 III. INFORMATION TO BE PRODUCED 5 IV. RESEARCH DESIGN 11 A. Requirements of the Research Design 11 B. Research Universe 12 C. Sampling Plan 13 D. Developmental Research 16 E. Questionnaire Design 16 F. Field Interviewing 17 G. Data Processing and Reporting 17 V. BUDGET AND SCHEDULE 18 Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum I. FOREWORD This proposal is being prepared by Becker Research at the request of Charles W. Colson, Special Assistant to the President. Prior to preparing this plan, Becker Research initially prepared a pre- liminary letter of information commenting on some of the complex- ities of the study's design requirements. John Becker and Irwin Harrison of Becker Research then met at length with Mr. Colson and his staff to review the study objectives and to discuss the requirements for producing the information and its appli- cation. Thereafter, an initial proposal was submitted to Mr. Colson reflecting the objectives and requirements agreed upon at that meet- ing and also qualitative telephone conferences with Dr. David Dirge and Richard Scammon, as suggested by Mr. Colson. Following this Mr. Harrison and Mr. Becker again met with Mr. Colson and certain other members of the White House staff to refine further the objectives, scope and specifications of the study. This proposal incorporates those refinements. A Word about Becker Research Corporation and the Research Team The Becker Research team will consist of the following key personnel: John F. Becker -- President of Becker Research. He founded the firm in 1967 following an 18-year career with Opinion Research Corporation, serving from 1962 through 1966 as man- ager of ORC's New England operations in Boston. During this period, Becker directed the polling programs for the Repub- lican State Committee in Massachusetts in 1962, 1964 and 1966 as well as doing political polling and consulting work for the Republican State Committees in Vermont, Connecticut and New Hampshire. In 1966 Becker worked closely as political polling consult- ant to Secretary Volpe, Secretary Richardson, and Senator Brooke in their statewide campaigns in Massachusetts. In 1970 Becker provided the polling program and campaign consultation services to Senator Prouty and Governor Davis of Vermont and Governor Peterson of New Hampshire. Becker Research has a full-time professional and technical staff of 12 people and in addition to political and public affairs work conducts a wide range of marketing and communi- cations studies for leading manufacturing, utility, banking and institutional clients. -1- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Irwin Harrison -- Political and Public Affairs Director of Becker Research. Mr. Harrison is a graduate of Columbia Uni- versity and Harvard Law School, and joined the firm shortly after its inception. In recent years, Becker Research's po- litical polling programs in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island have respectively been carried forward under the auspices of The Boston Globe, The Hartford Times and WTEV-Channel 6. Mr. Harrison has designed and directed the polling programs for these media and, together with Mr. Becker, has provided po- litical polling and consultation to private political clients in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Reuben Cohen -- Technical Director and Sampling and Statistical Consultant for the project. Mr. Cohen will be responsible for the design, sampling, and statistical aspects of the proposed research plan. In the course of a long career at Opinion Re- search Corporation, he designed and directed all the technical aspects of that firm's polling programs for the Republican Na- tional Committee in 1960 and 1964. Mr. Cohen is now President of his own firm, Response Analysis Corporation, which serves as consultant to Becker Research for special technical requirements. -2- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum II. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The broad objective of the proposed research is to provide informa- tion which will help the White House staff to develop a political strategy best suited to winning maximum support for President Nixon's candidacy in 1972 among white middle-income voters and especially those with particular ethnic backgrounds. More specifically, the study will be designed: 1. To determine whether or not there has been a shift away from historical Democratic loyalties among middle-income blue and white collar workers of various ethnic backgrounds. 2. If this shift in loyalty is taking place, to ascertain the reasons voters are changing from their historical political allegiances, and more importantly how these reasons can be exploited in the 1972 political campaign. 3. Aside from party loyalty, to determine where white middle- income urbanized and suburbanized voters stand on the lib- eral-conservative spectrum and the attitude patterns that characterize the conservative versus the liberal point of view among these voters. 4. To attempt to learn the reasons behind the results in cer- tain key senatorial and gubernatorial races in 1970 and how to apply this insight to 1972. 5. In general, to seek to determine whether the Buckley victory in New York was symptomatic of a trend or was merely an iso- lated event, and if it was symptomatic of a trend, what are its overall implications. 6. To determine which foreign and domestic issues are of great- est concern to middle-income voters generally and to middle- income voters of particular ethnic and occupational back- grounds, and to find out what their position is on these issues. -3- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum 7. To determine the basic popularity among the group under study and the detailed image profiles of President Nixon and his most likely Democratic opponents in 1972, probably Senator Edward M. Kennedy and Senator Edmund P. Muskie and possibly Governor George Wallace, and the reasons behind these attitudes. 8. To measure Vice-President Agnew's visibility and popularity among these voters compared with other leading Republicans on the national scene. 9. To measure President Nixon's present standing in hypothetical trial heats against possible 1972 contenders such as Kennedy, Muskie and Wallace, and possibly others. 10. To measure voter awareness and evaluation of the Nixon Admin- istration's performance in key areas of policy and program. 11. In all of the above areas of information, to compare the mid- dle-income and ethnic groups in each state studied with their demographic counterparts in a projectable national sample of voters and also with the total national population of voters as a whole. 12. To obtain a profile of middle-income voters in terms not only of demographic characteristics but in terms of polit- ically relevant attitudes as well. -4- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum III. INFORMATION TO BE PRODUCED A good many specific questions and issues to be explored may grow out of the developmental research which cannot be fully foreseen at pres- ent. At the same time, we can anticipate that the survey questioning will include, though not be limited to, some of the following question areas. It should be kept in mind that the following are not exact question wordings but simply illustrate some of the areas that might be included. (In the outline below and on some of the following pages, the term middle-American will be used to describe white middle-income voters, the group under special study in this survey.) The question areas: Do middle-Americans regard themselves as Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Have they changed party affiliation? When? Why? How do they recall having voted in Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace Johnson-Goldwater Nixon-Kennedy Eisenhower-Stevenson (1956) Eisenhower-Stevenson (1952) Truman-Dewey Roosevelt-Dewey What was their parents' party affiliation? Do middle-Americans regard themselves as liberal, conservative, or middle-of-the-road? How do they define these terms? What are the issues which most sharply distinguish conservatives from liberals? Which of these issues are middle-Americans most concerned about? What is their position on these issues? What do they perceive the Nixon Administration's position to be on these issues? How do they rate the Administration's perfor- mance as it relates to the issues of concern: Controlling Inflation -5- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Ending the War in Southeast Asia Pulling American Troops Out of Southeast Asia Settling the Arab-Israeli Conflict Providing Appropriate Help for the Nation's Poor Correcting Problems of Abuse in the Welfare System and Relating this to the Nixon Welfare Proposals Liberalizing Birth Control and Abortion Laws Solving the Drug Problem Cracking Down on Organized Crime Reducing Crime in the Streets Solving Problems of Urban Decay Improving Relations Between Blacks and Whites Helping Blacks Improve Their Position in the Country Keeping Taxes from Going Up Keeping a Balanced Federal Budget Controlling Racial Rioting in Cities Controlling Student Radicals Strengthening the Supreme Court Providing Enough Jobs for People Who Want to Work Building Super-Sonic Transport Plane Bringing Together the Nation's Opposing Groups -- Young & 01d, Black & White, City & Suburb, etc. Keeping the Nation Informed Aid to Catholic Schools -6- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Reducing Air and Water Pollution Limiting Foreign Imports that Threaten U. S. Industry What issues are the real issues that motivate middle-Americans to vote as they do and whether they feel any of the President's potential rivals can do a better job on these issues than Mr. Nixon is doing? How popular is President Nixon and how do people's feelings about the President relate to their feelings on the wide range of issues listed above? What is Mr. Nixon's image among middle-Americans -- what are the dominant characteristics of the President that people perceive? How does this image compare with their image of the ideal President? What is the image of Senator Kennedy? Senator Muskie? To what extent is the image of Mr. Nixon and his principal com- petitors seen to be Dignified and Statesmanlike A Strong Leader A Skilled Legislator Expert in Foreign Affairs Intelligent A Man Who Gets Things Done Tough on Crime and Criminals A Shrewd Politician Warm and Friendly Concerned for the Poor Deceitful - Untrustworthy Nervous, Unsure Exciting Has Common Touch -7- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Skilled in Government Finance Compassionate Understanding of Young People A Military Expert Skilled International Diplomat Open and Candid Concerned for Blacks and Their Problems Too Much of a Politician Appealing Personality Favors Big Campaign Contributors Indecisive Inspires Confidence Looks Good on TV A Scholarly Person Cold Personality Puts Country's Welfare Above His Own Political Interest A Good Administrator Courageous Honest and Trustworthy Decisive Family Man - -8- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum What are the visibility and popularity levels of such leading political figures as Agnew Goldwater Brooke Buckley Hatfield Rockefeller Lindsay McGovern Kennedy Muskie Hughes McCarthy Bayh Wallace How does President Nixon stack up in Presidential trial heats involving the following and possibly other match-ups: Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Why people think President Nixon won in 1968 and why they think he will win or lose in 1972? How many middle-Americans who voted against Nixon in 1968 are with him now and how many who were with him in 1968 are against him now? What attitudes are associated with each group in terms of issues and image? How did people vote in key Senate and Gubernatorial elections in their states in 1970? Why do they think these races went as they did? (e.g. Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Jersey, Vermont?) Where do people form their impressions of the Administration? Newspapers? TV? Radio? The President himself? What national columnists or radio-TV news personalities can they name in whose reports they have confidence and credibility? Do people perceive their news reports to be biased either in favor or against the Administration? Are these perceptions dif- ferent between pro- and anti-Nixon voters? -9- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum The foregoing summary of possible question areas is all-inclusive and goes beyond what is actually feasible in a 45-minute or 30- minute interview. They are summarized here in order to illustrate the kinds of in- formation that can be developed. The above question areas together with additional hypotheses that will emerge from the developmental work will be reviewed against the objectives and those that are especially pertinent will be incorporated into a 45-minute or a 30-minute structured questionnaire. -10- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum IV. RESEARCH DESIGN A. Requirements of the Research Design The primary voter group under study is highly refined and numerically limited in the population. This places several extraordinary requirements on the research design which must be accounted for if the information produced is to have the high degree of reliability called for by this study. These requirements are: 1. The middle -American" voter must be identified, contacted and interviewed so as to be project- able for the total middle-American population for the 6 particular states specified. 2. Since middle-Americans sampled in the 6 states cannot be projected nationally, a national "norm" for this group is required in order to know if they are different from middle-Americans nationwide, so that the meaning of the results may be correctly interpreted. 3. Since Italo-Americans, Irish-Americans and Polish- Americans represent even smaller segments within the "middle-American" voters, areas must be found where there exist high local concentrations of each ethnic sub-group so that conventional sampl- ing methods will yield a high number of qualified respondents for interviews. 4. Since samples of highly-concentrated ethnic areas are not projectable beyond those areas, national norms for the ethnic sub-groups must also be ob- tained in order to correctly interpret the meaning of the ethnic data collected in each state. -11- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum B. Research Universe There are three populations to be considered in this research plan: 1. The population under particular study described in this proposal as "middle-American" voters is being defined as all people who are: Eligible and intending to vote in the Presidential Election in 1972 In the $5,000 to $15,000 family income bracket Living in cities and towns 25,000 in population and over Living in the states of: * New York Pennsylvania Maryland Ohio Illinois New Jersey Vermont (Winooski and Springfield) 2. Also in each state selected a sub-population of known ethnic identity will be chosen. The ethnic groups of particular interest are de- fined as Irish-American, Italo- American and Polish-American. Within the 6 states, two to three areas will be selected for each of the ethnic groups. 3. Finally, the third population proposed for study is the total national population of people who will be eligible and intending to vote in 1972. This population is proposed to be included in the Research Universe to permit the results of the surveys of the first two populations to be correlated, placed in proper perspective, and correctly interpreted. *These states subject to change at client's option. -12- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum C. Sampling Plan Plan I It is proposed that probability samples of middle-Americans be selected in cities and towns 25,000 and over in each of 6 states. Based on computer-processed census information which can be contracted for, it is possible to at least roughly identify the census tracts and enumeration districts in which qualified respondents live. In each state the sample will be scientifically selected from these places. This should greatly increase operating efficiency in the field interviewing which otherwise would be prohibitively expensive. It is estimated that 2-3 contacts will need to be made to locate a qualified respondent. It is proposed that 300 personal interviews of either 30 or 45 minutes in length be conducted in each state for a total of 1800 personal interviews. A sample size of 300 is recommended as best accommodating re- quirements for accuracy and realistic cost considerations. Statewide results for a 300-case sample are projectable to within plus or minus 4-7 percentage points of the result if the entire middle-American population were interviewed. This degree of precision is considered more than adequate for the purpose of this study. The rationale for studying middle-Americans in 6 separate states is to make possible the separate analysis of 6 spe- cific areas considered to be of particular political sig- nificance. Also, it will make it possible to determine the relative impact of state and local vs. national and world issues in shaping middle-American political thought and behavior. Also, a national sub-sample of voters with middle-American characteristics can be broken out of the national sample for comparative analysis with each statewide sample. Additionally, Becker Research will be conducting a general public survey in Connecticut for the Hartford Times in the spring which could be used to analyze middle-Americans in Connecticut on a few key points and to compare this with the results from the other 6 states under study. -13- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Plan 2 In each state, it is proposed that, based on locally-obtained information, a single election district be selected that is known to have in residence high concentrations of specific ethnic groups. Probability block sampling techniques would then be employed to select 20 sampling points in each of these election districts. About five households would be selected from each sampling point yielding a sample of 100 interviews. The same 45-minute or 30-minute questionnaire would be used as in the statewide personal interview studies. The rationale for this sampling strategy is based upon the need to sample ethnic groups where they are in concentrated rather than dispersed residence. Any other sampling strategy would require so many contacts to find an eligible respondent that the interviewing costs would be prohibitive. In Plan 2, only members of the desired ethnic group would be considered eligible for interview. These survey results would not be projectable beyond the election district sampled. They would, however, be clearly indicative of the thinking of ethnic voters who live in con- centrated neighborhoods, wherein their ethnicity is probably most potent as a factor in political thought and behavior. Further, in this study design, it will be possible to place these ethnic data in analytical perspective by comparing each Irish-American group, for example, with Irish-American concentrations in other states and with the Irish-American subgroup in the national sample which will serve as the national norm for Irish-American thinking. -14- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Plan 3 It is recommended that a national probability sample of 2,000 telephone households be selected for intervie WS with respondents eligible and intending to vote in the 1972 Presidential Election. The national area probability sample designed by Reuben Cohen of Response Analysis Corporation will provide the basis for this tele- phone sample. The sample comprises about 100 locations, each one of which embraces a geographic region covered by a specific tele- phone directory. The 2,000 interviews are assigned to the 100 telephone directories in such a way as to reflect the distribution of population density throughout the U. S. and to provide an ac- curate proportional representation of all the pertinent demographic subgroups in the population. Systematic sampling procedures are employed to select respondents' names from directories. The rationale for this plan is to provide a national sample of voters against which the middle-American survey results in the 6 states can be compared and analyzed. In order to accurately evaluate the results of the surveys among middle-Americans in each of the 6 states, it is necessary to know whether these re- sults are the same or different from the national voting public and in what way. Further, it is necessary to know whether the survey results from these 6 states are the same or different from the national sub-sample of middle-Americans that can be broken out of this sample. Without the national norms provided by this national sample, it is conceivable that the results from the 6- state studies might be either inconclusive or lead to possibly erroneous interpretations. In order to provide national attitude norms on a sufficiently broad range of questions dealing with politics, ideology, candi- dates and issues, it is felt that a 10-minute questionnaire in- corporating 20-25 separate items of information will be employed in the national probability telephone sample. These 20-25 ques- tions will be identical to questions asked in the longer 45-minute or 30-minute personal interview. In addition, interest has been expressed by Mr. Colson in attempt- ing to learn why the vote in the heavily Democratic cities of Winooski and Springfield, Vermont went to Prouty in the 1970 senate contest. It is recommended that a sample of 100 telephone households in each of those two cities be selected for interviews with eligible respondents to investigate and attempt to find the answer to this question. As suggested to Mr. Colson at our last meeting, it may be possi- ble to obtain the highly important national norms by using the Republican National Committee's next nationwide study as an al- ternative to the 2,000-case national probability telephone study described above. In order to make a proper judgement' in this respect, however, it will be necessary to ascertain the date of the next national committee study and the questionnaire content of that study. This approach would, of course, as noted on Page 18 result in a substantial saving in terms of budget. -15- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum D. Developmental Research It is proposed that a two-hour focus-group interview be conducted with an admixture of eligible respondents from one or more of the states under study. The group interview is tape recorded and con- ducted by a member of the Becker Research team who is skilled in discussion-leading techniques. The discussion leader employs a broad topic guide from which he introduces very general lines of questioning which permits the individual participants to discuss the subject matter in any way they feel inclined and to bring up other topics on their own initiative. In this way respondents interact, often argue and debate with one another in a way that brings to the surface both the intellectual and emotional content of their political viewpoints. The tape recordings are then analyzed and from the analysis will emerge many new questions to be explored and hypotheses to be tested through the quantitative surveys employing a detailed structured questionnaire. Ideally, one group interview should be conducted in each of the six states under study. Considerations of time and budget, how- ever, may indicate that the group interviews be limited to four states, which would be considered adequate for the purposes of the study. The client may have the option of ordering more than four group interviews if preferred. E. Questionnaire Design From the material outlined in Section III of this proposal, to- gether with the results of the developmental interviews and sub- sequent discussions with Mr. Colson and his colleagues, a struc- tured questionnaire will be drafted and submitted to the client for review. At the same time, 20 actual test interviews will be conducted to be sure the questions are understandable, workable and productive of the desired information, and also to assure that the questionnaire adheres to the prescribed 30 or 45 minutes in length. Following this pre-test, the questionnaire will be finally reviewed with the client and approved for the commence- ment of the field interviewing. The same procedures will be carried forward in the development of the shorter telephone questionnaires. -16- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum F. Field Interviewing All personal interviewing in the six states studied will be con- ducted by qualified interviewing sub-contractors with whom Becker Research has either worked previously on a satisfactory basis or whose written credentials and references will be submitted and checked out by Becker Research in advance. All interviewers in each state under study will personally be briefed and trained on this assignment by the Becker Research Director of Field Opera- tions, at the local level in each state. Intermediary quality control measures will be applied during the course of the inter- viewing and up to 20% validation of each interviewer's work will be carried out by Becker Research. Telephone interviewing will be conducted through the Becker Re- search national telephone facilities in Boston by trained and ex- perienced Becker Research telephone interviewers working under the full-time direct supervision of the Becker Research Field Director. G. Data Processing and Reporting All questionnaires will be key punched and computer processed with the results produced on workable computer print-outs. Pre- liminary results can be reported by either telephone, mail or personal consultation as soon as computer print-outs are avail- able. A full presentation of the analysis and tabular report, together with our interpretation of their meaning and implica- tions for political decision-making will be prepared and delivered. A visual chart presentation can be prepared for delivery to Mr. Colson and his associates. Two full days of the time of John Becker and Irwin Harrision are to be made available for consulta- tion during the reporting and implementation phase of the work. -17- Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum V. BUDGET AND SCHEDULE The following cost estimates have been prepared for various combinations of study components. Any of the options described below would in our judgement constitute an unusually productive and useful study, with Option 1 obviously providing the greatest amount of information and Op- tion 4 the least. Option 1 1800 45-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states) 600 45-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations (100 in each of 6 states) 2000 10-minute telephone interviews nationwide 200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski and Springfield) $112,000 Schedule: Final report deliverable 20-22 weeks from authorization Option 2 1800 45-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states) 600 45-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations (100 in each of 6 states) 200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski and Springfield) $ 92,000 Schedule: Final report deliverable 20-22 weeks from authorization Option 3 1800 30-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states) 600 30-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations (100 in each of 6 states) 2000 10-minute telephone interviews nationwide 200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski and Springfield) $106,000 Schedule: Final report deliverable 20-22 weeks from authorization Option 4 1800 30-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states) 600 30-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations (100 in each of 6 states) 200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski and Springfield) $ 86,000 Schedule: Final report deliverable 20-22 weeks from authorization Option 5 Developmental focus-group interviews $ 600 per state -18- plus travel expenses Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum

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    "ocrText": "MIDDLE AMERICA IN POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE\nA Proposed Survey of Middle-Income\nVoter Attitudes Toward the Nixon\nAdministration, Issues, Personalities,\nParties and Ideology\nA Research Proposal Prepared for\nCharles W. Colson, Special Counsel to the President\nby\nBECKER RESEARCH CORPORATION\n120 Boylston Street\nBoston, Massachusetts\nJanuary 1971\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nTABLE OF CONTENTS\nPage\nI.\nFOREWORD\n1\nII.\nRESEARCH OBJECTIVES\n3\nIII. INFORMATION TO BE PRODUCED\n5\nIV.\nRESEARCH DESIGN\n11\nA. Requirements of the Research Design\n11\nB. Research Universe\n12\nC. Sampling Plan\n13\nD. Developmental Research\n16\nE. Questionnaire Design\n16\nF. Field Interviewing\n17\nG. Data Processing and Reporting\n17\nV.\nBUDGET AND SCHEDULE\n18\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nI.\nFOREWORD\nThis proposal is being prepared by Becker Research at the request\nof Charles W. Colson, Special Assistant to the President. Prior\nto preparing this plan, Becker Research initially prepared a pre-\nliminary letter of information commenting on some of the complex-\nities of the study's design requirements.\nJohn Becker and Irwin Harrison of Becker Research then met at length\nwith Mr. Colson and his staff to review the study objectives and to\ndiscuss the requirements for producing the information and its appli-\ncation. Thereafter, an initial proposal was submitted to Mr. Colson\nreflecting the objectives and requirements agreed upon at that meet-\ning and also qualitative telephone conferences with Dr. David Dirge\nand Richard Scammon, as suggested by Mr. Colson.\nFollowing this Mr. Harrison and Mr. Becker again met with Mr. Colson\nand certain other members of the White House staff to refine further\nthe objectives, scope and specifications of the study. This proposal\nincorporates those refinements.\nA Word about Becker Research Corporation and the Research Team\nThe Becker Research team will consist of the following key personnel:\nJohn F. Becker -- President of Becker Research. He founded\nthe firm in 1967 following an 18-year career with Opinion\nResearch Corporation, serving from 1962 through 1966 as man-\nager of ORC's New England operations in Boston. During this\nperiod, Becker directed the polling programs for the Repub-\nlican State Committee in Massachusetts in 1962, 1964 and 1966\nas well as doing political polling and consulting work for\nthe Republican State Committees in Vermont, Connecticut and\nNew Hampshire.\nIn 1966 Becker worked closely as political polling consult-\nant to Secretary Volpe, Secretary Richardson, and Senator\nBrooke in their statewide campaigns in Massachusetts. In 1970\nBecker provided the polling program and campaign consultation\nservices to Senator Prouty and Governor Davis of Vermont and\nGovernor Peterson of New Hampshire.\nBecker Research has a full-time professional and technical\nstaff of 12 people and in addition to political and public\naffairs work conducts a wide range of marketing and communi-\ncations studies for leading manufacturing, utility, banking\nand institutional clients.\n-1-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nIrwin Harrison -- Political and Public Affairs Director of\nBecker Research. Mr. Harrison is a graduate of Columbia Uni-\nversity and Harvard Law School, and joined the firm shortly\nafter its inception. In recent years, Becker Research's po-\nlitical polling programs in Massachusetts, Connecticut and\nRhode Island have respectively been carried forward under the\nauspices of The Boston Globe, The Hartford Times and WTEV-Channel\n6. Mr. Harrison has designed and directed the polling programs\nfor these media and, together with Mr. Becker, has provided po-\nlitical polling and consultation to private political clients in\nVermont, New Hampshire and Maine.\nReuben Cohen -- Technical Director and Sampling and Statistical\nConsultant for the project. Mr. Cohen will be responsible for\nthe design, sampling, and statistical aspects of the proposed\nresearch plan. In the course of a long career at Opinion Re-\nsearch Corporation, he designed and directed all the technical\naspects of that firm's polling programs for the Republican Na-\ntional Committee in 1960 and 1964. Mr. Cohen is now President\nof his own firm, Response Analysis Corporation, which serves as\nconsultant to Becker Research for special technical requirements.\n-2-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nII.\nRESEARCH OBJECTIVES\nThe broad objective of the proposed research is to provide informa-\ntion which will help the White House staff to develop a political\nstrategy best suited to winning maximum support for President Nixon's\ncandidacy in 1972 among white middle-income voters and especially\nthose with particular ethnic backgrounds.\nMore specifically, the study will be designed:\n1. To determine whether or not there has been a shift away\nfrom historical Democratic loyalties among middle-income\nblue and white collar workers of various ethnic backgrounds.\n2. If this shift in loyalty is taking place, to ascertain the\nreasons voters are changing from their historical political\nallegiances, and more importantly how these reasons can be\nexploited in the 1972 political campaign.\n3. Aside from party loyalty, to determine where white middle-\nincome urbanized and suburbanized voters stand on the lib-\neral-conservative spectrum and the attitude patterns that\ncharacterize the conservative versus the liberal point of\nview among these voters.\n4. To attempt to learn the reasons behind the results in cer-\ntain key senatorial and gubernatorial races in 1970 and\nhow to apply this insight to 1972.\n5. In general, to seek to determine whether the Buckley victory\nin New York was symptomatic of a trend or was merely an iso-\nlated event, and if it was symptomatic of a trend, what are\nits overall implications.\n6. To determine which foreign and domestic issues are of great-\nest concern to middle-income voters generally and to middle-\nincome voters of particular ethnic and occupational back-\ngrounds, and to find out what their position is on these\nissues.\n-3-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\n7. To determine the basic popularity among the group under\nstudy and the detailed image profiles of President Nixon\nand his most likely Democratic opponents in 1972, probably\nSenator Edward M. Kennedy and Senator Edmund P. Muskie and\npossibly Governor George Wallace, and the reasons behind\nthese attitudes.\n8. To measure Vice-President Agnew's visibility and popularity\namong these voters compared with other leading Republicans\non the national scene.\n9. To measure President Nixon's present standing in hypothetical\ntrial heats against possible 1972 contenders such as Kennedy,\nMuskie and Wallace, and possibly others.\n10. To measure voter awareness and evaluation of the Nixon Admin-\nistration's performance in key areas of policy and program.\n11. In all of the above areas of information, to compare the mid-\ndle-income and ethnic groups in each state studied with their\ndemographic counterparts in a projectable national sample of\nvoters and also with the total national population of voters\nas a whole.\n12. To obtain a profile of middle-income voters in terms not\nonly of demographic characteristics but in terms of polit-\nically relevant attitudes as well.\n-4-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nIII.\nINFORMATION TO BE PRODUCED\nA good many specific questions and issues to be explored may grow out\nof the developmental research which cannot be fully foreseen at pres-\nent. At the same time, we can anticipate that the survey questioning\nwill include, though not be limited to, some of the following question\nareas. It should be kept in mind that the following are not exact\nquestion wordings but simply illustrate some of the areas that might\nbe included. (In the outline below and on some of the following pages,\nthe term middle-American will be used to describe white middle-income\nvoters, the group under special study in this survey.)\nThe question areas:\nDo middle-Americans regard themselves as Republican, Democrat,\nor Independent?\nHave they changed party affiliation? When? Why?\nHow do they recall having voted in\nNixon-Humphrey-Wallace\nJohnson-Goldwater\nNixon-Kennedy\nEisenhower-Stevenson (1956)\nEisenhower-Stevenson (1952)\nTruman-Dewey\nRoosevelt-Dewey\nWhat was their parents' party affiliation?\nDo middle-Americans regard themselves as liberal, conservative,\nor middle-of-the-road? How do they define these terms?\nWhat are the issues which most sharply distinguish conservatives\nfrom liberals?\nWhich of these issues are middle-Americans most concerned about?\nWhat is their position on these issues?\nWhat do they perceive the Nixon Administration's position to be\non these issues? How do they rate the Administration's perfor-\nmance as it relates to the issues of concern:\nControlling Inflation\n-5-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nEnding the War in Southeast Asia\nPulling American Troops Out of Southeast Asia\nSettling the Arab-Israeli Conflict\nProviding Appropriate Help for the Nation's Poor\nCorrecting Problems of Abuse in the Welfare System and\nRelating this to the Nixon Welfare Proposals\nLiberalizing Birth Control and Abortion Laws\nSolving the Drug Problem\nCracking Down on Organized Crime\nReducing Crime in the Streets\nSolving Problems of Urban Decay\nImproving Relations Between Blacks and Whites\nHelping Blacks Improve Their Position in the Country\nKeeping Taxes from Going Up\nKeeping a Balanced Federal Budget\nControlling Racial Rioting in Cities\nControlling Student Radicals\nStrengthening the Supreme Court\nProviding Enough Jobs for People Who Want to Work\nBuilding Super-Sonic Transport Plane\nBringing Together the Nation's Opposing Groups -- Young &\n01d, Black & White, City & Suburb, etc.\nKeeping the Nation Informed\nAid to Catholic Schools\n-6-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nReducing Air and Water Pollution\nLimiting Foreign Imports that Threaten U. S. Industry\nWhat issues are the real issues that motivate middle-Americans\nto vote as they do and whether they feel any of the President's\npotential rivals can do a better job on these issues than Mr.\nNixon is doing?\nHow popular is President Nixon and how do people's feelings about\nthe President relate to their feelings on the wide range of issues\nlisted above?\nWhat is Mr. Nixon's image among middle-Americans -- what are the\ndominant characteristics of the President that people perceive?\nHow does this image compare with their image of the ideal President?\nWhat is the image of Senator Kennedy? Senator Muskie?\nTo what extent is the image of Mr. Nixon and his principal com-\npetitors seen to be\nDignified and Statesmanlike\nA Strong Leader\nA Skilled Legislator\nExpert in Foreign Affairs\nIntelligent\nA Man Who Gets Things Done\nTough on Crime and Criminals\nA Shrewd Politician\nWarm and Friendly\nConcerned for the Poor\nDeceitful - Untrustworthy\nNervous, Unsure\nExciting\nHas Common Touch\n-7-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nSkilled in Government Finance\nCompassionate\nUnderstanding of Young People\nA Military Expert\nSkilled International Diplomat\nOpen and Candid\nConcerned for Blacks and Their Problems\nToo Much of a Politician\nAppealing Personality\nFavors Big Campaign Contributors\nIndecisive\nInspires Confidence\nLooks Good on TV\nA Scholarly Person\nCold Personality\nPuts Country's Welfare Above His Own Political Interest\nA Good Administrator\nCourageous\nHonest and Trustworthy\nDecisive\nFamily Man\n- -8-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nWhat are the visibility and popularity levels of such leading\npolitical figures as\nAgnew\nGoldwater\nBrooke\nBuckley\nHatfield\nRockefeller\nLindsay\nMcGovern\nKennedy\nMuskie\nHughes\nMcCarthy\nBayh\nWallace\nHow does President Nixon stack up in Presidential trial heats\ninvolving the following and possibly other match-ups:\nNixon-Kennedy-Wallace\nNixon-Muskie-Wallace\nWhy people think President Nixon won in 1968 and why they think\nhe will win or lose in 1972?\nHow many middle-Americans who voted against Nixon in 1968 are with\nhim now and how many who were with him in 1968 are against him now?\nWhat attitudes are associated with each group in terms of issues\nand image?\nHow did people vote in key Senate and Gubernatorial elections in\ntheir states in 1970? Why do they think these races went as they\ndid? (e.g. Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New\nJersey, Vermont?)\nWhere do people form their impressions of the Administration?\nNewspapers? TV? Radio? The President himself?\nWhat national columnists or radio-TV news personalities can they\nname in whose reports they have confidence and credibility?\nDo people perceive their news reports to be biased either in\nfavor or against the Administration? Are these perceptions dif-\nferent between pro- and anti-Nixon voters?\n-9-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nThe foregoing summary of possible question areas is all-inclusive\nand goes beyond what is actually feasible in a 45-minute or 30-\nminute interview.\nThey are summarized here in order to illustrate the kinds of in-\nformation that can be developed. The above question areas together\nwith additional hypotheses that will emerge from the developmental\nwork will be reviewed against the objectives and those that are\nespecially pertinent will be incorporated into a 45-minute or a\n30-minute structured questionnaire.\n-10-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nIV.\nRESEARCH DESIGN\nA. Requirements of the Research Design\nThe primary voter group under study is highly refined and\nnumerically limited in the population. This places several\nextraordinary requirements on the research design which\nmust be accounted for if the information produced is to\nhave the high degree of reliability called for by this study.\nThese requirements are:\n1. The middle -American\" voter must be identified,\ncontacted and interviewed so as to be project-\nable for the total middle-American population\nfor the 6 particular states specified.\n2. Since middle-Americans sampled in the 6 states\ncannot be projected nationally, a national\n\"norm\" for this group is required in order to\nknow if they are different from middle-Americans\nnationwide, so that the meaning of the results\nmay be correctly interpreted.\n3. Since Italo-Americans, Irish-Americans and Polish-\nAmericans represent even smaller segments within\nthe \"middle-American\" voters, areas must be found\nwhere there exist high local concentrations of\neach ethnic sub-group so that conventional sampl-\ning methods will yield a high number of qualified\nrespondents for interviews.\n4. Since samples of highly-concentrated ethnic areas\nare not projectable beyond those areas, national\nnorms for the ethnic sub-groups must also be ob-\ntained in order to correctly interpret the meaning\nof the ethnic data collected in each state.\n-11-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nB. Research Universe\nThere are three populations to be considered in this research\nplan:\n1. The population under particular study described\nin this proposal as \"middle-American\" voters\nis being defined as all people who are:\nEligible and intending to vote in the\nPresidential Election in 1972\nIn the $5,000 to $15,000 family income\nbracket\nLiving in cities and towns 25,000 in\npopulation and over\nLiving in the states of: *\nNew York\nPennsylvania\nMaryland\nOhio\nIllinois\nNew Jersey\nVermont (Winooski and Springfield)\n2. Also in each state selected a sub-population\nof known ethnic identity will be chosen. The\nethnic groups of particular interest are de-\nfined as Irish-American, Italo- American and\nPolish-American. Within the 6 states, two to\nthree areas will be selected for each of the\nethnic groups.\n3. Finally, the third population proposed for\nstudy is the total national population of\npeople who will be eligible and intending to\nvote in 1972. This population is proposed\nto be included in the Research Universe to\npermit the results of the surveys of the\nfirst two populations to be correlated, placed\nin proper perspective, and correctly interpreted.\n*These states subject to change at client's option.\n-12-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nC. Sampling Plan\nPlan I\nIt is proposed that probability samples of middle-Americans\nbe selected in cities and towns 25,000 and over in each of 6\nstates. Based on computer-processed census information which\ncan be contracted for, it is possible to at least roughly\nidentify the census tracts and enumeration districts in\nwhich qualified respondents live. In each state the sample\nwill be scientifically selected from these places. This\nshould greatly increase operating efficiency in the field\ninterviewing which otherwise would be prohibitively expensive.\nIt is estimated that 2-3 contacts will need to be made to\nlocate a qualified respondent.\nIt is proposed that 300 personal interviews of either 30 or\n45 minutes in length be conducted in each state for a total\nof 1800 personal interviews.\nA sample size of 300 is recommended as best accommodating re-\nquirements for accuracy and realistic cost considerations.\nStatewide results for a 300-case sample are projectable to\nwithin plus or minus 4-7 percentage points of the result if\nthe entire middle-American population were interviewed.\nThis degree of precision is considered more than adequate\nfor the purpose of this study.\nThe rationale for studying middle-Americans in 6 separate\nstates is to make possible the separate analysis of 6 spe-\ncific areas considered to be of particular political sig-\nnificance. Also, it will make it possible to determine the\nrelative impact of state and local vs. national and world\nissues in shaping middle-American political thought and\nbehavior.\nAlso, a national sub-sample of voters with middle-American\ncharacteristics can be broken out of the national sample\nfor comparative analysis with each statewide sample.\nAdditionally, Becker Research will be conducting a general\npublic survey in Connecticut for the Hartford Times in the\nspring which could be used to analyze middle-Americans in\nConnecticut on a few key points and to compare this with\nthe results from the other 6 states under study.\n-13-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nPlan 2\nIn each state, it is proposed that, based on locally-obtained\ninformation, a single election district be selected that is\nknown to have in residence high concentrations of specific\nethnic groups. Probability block sampling techniques would\nthen be employed to select 20 sampling points in each of\nthese election districts. About five households would be\nselected from each sampling point yielding a sample of 100\ninterviews. The same 45-minute or 30-minute questionnaire\nwould be used as in the statewide personal interview studies.\nThe rationale for this sampling strategy is based upon the\nneed to sample ethnic groups where they are in concentrated\nrather than dispersed residence. Any other sampling strategy\nwould require so many contacts to find an eligible respondent\nthat the interviewing costs would be prohibitive. In Plan 2,\nonly members of the desired ethnic group would be considered\neligible for interview.\nThese survey results would not be projectable beyond the\nelection district sampled. They would, however, be clearly\nindicative of the thinking of ethnic voters who live in con-\ncentrated neighborhoods, wherein their ethnicity is probably\nmost potent as a factor in political thought and behavior.\nFurther, in this study design, it will be possible to place\nthese ethnic data in analytical perspective by comparing\neach Irish-American group, for example, with Irish-American\nconcentrations in other states and with the Irish-American\nsubgroup in the national sample which will serve as the\nnational norm for Irish-American thinking.\n-14-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nPlan 3\nIt is recommended that a national probability sample of 2,000\ntelephone households be selected for intervie WS with respondents\neligible and intending to vote in the 1972 Presidential Election.\nThe national area probability sample designed by Reuben Cohen of\nResponse Analysis Corporation will provide the basis for this tele-\nphone sample. The sample comprises about 100 locations, each one\nof which embraces a geographic region covered by a specific tele-\nphone directory. The 2,000 interviews are assigned to the 100\ntelephone directories in such a way as to reflect the distribution\nof population density throughout the U. S. and to provide an ac-\ncurate proportional representation of all the pertinent demographic\nsubgroups in the population. Systematic sampling procedures are\nemployed to select respondents' names from directories.\nThe rationale for this plan is to provide a national sample of\nvoters against which the middle-American survey results in the 6\nstates can be compared and analyzed. In order to accurately\nevaluate the results of the surveys among middle-Americans in\neach of the 6 states, it is necessary to know whether these re-\nsults are the same or different from the national voting public\nand in what way. Further, it is necessary to know whether the\nsurvey results from these 6 states are the same or different from\nthe national sub-sample of middle-Americans that can be broken\nout of this sample. Without the national norms provided by this\nnational sample, it is conceivable that the results from the 6-\nstate studies might be either inconclusive or lead to possibly\nerroneous interpretations.\nIn order to provide national attitude norms on a sufficiently\nbroad range of questions dealing with politics, ideology, candi-\ndates and issues, it is felt that a 10-minute questionnaire in-\ncorporating 20-25 separate items of information will be employed\nin the national probability telephone sample. These 20-25 ques-\ntions will be identical to questions asked in the longer 45-minute\nor 30-minute personal interview.\nIn addition, interest has been expressed by Mr. Colson in attempt-\ning to learn why the vote in the heavily Democratic cities of\nWinooski and Springfield, Vermont went to Prouty in the 1970\nsenate contest. It is recommended that a sample of 100 telephone\nhouseholds in each of those two cities be selected for interviews\nwith eligible respondents to investigate and attempt to find the\nanswer to this question.\nAs suggested to Mr. Colson at our last meeting, it may be possi-\nble to obtain the highly important national norms by using the\nRepublican National Committee's next nationwide study as an al-\nternative to the 2,000-case national probability telephone study\ndescribed above. In order to make a proper judgement' in this\nrespect, however, it will be necessary to ascertain the date of\nthe next national committee study and the questionnaire content\nof that study. This approach would, of course, as noted on\nPage 18 result in a substantial saving in terms of budget.\n-15-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nD. Developmental Research\nIt is proposed that a two-hour focus-group interview be conducted\nwith an admixture of eligible respondents from one or more of the\nstates under study. The group interview is tape recorded and con-\nducted by a member of the Becker Research team who is skilled in\ndiscussion-leading techniques. The discussion leader employs a\nbroad topic guide from which he introduces very general lines of\nquestioning which permits the individual participants to discuss\nthe subject matter in any way they feel inclined and to bring up\nother topics on their own initiative. In this way respondents\ninteract, often argue and debate with one another in a way that\nbrings to the surface both the intellectual and emotional content\nof their political viewpoints.\nThe tape recordings are then analyzed and from the analysis will\nemerge many new questions to be explored and hypotheses to be\ntested through the quantitative surveys employing a detailed\nstructured questionnaire.\nIdeally, one group interview should be conducted in each of the\nsix states under study. Considerations of time and budget, how-\never, may indicate that the group interviews be limited to four\nstates, which would be considered adequate for the purposes of\nthe study. The client may have the option of ordering more than\nfour group interviews if preferred.\nE. Questionnaire Design\nFrom the material outlined in Section III of this proposal, to-\ngether with the results of the developmental interviews and sub-\nsequent discussions with Mr. Colson and his colleagues, a struc-\ntured questionnaire will be drafted and submitted to the client\nfor review. At the same time, 20 actual test interviews will be\nconducted to be sure the questions are understandable, workable\nand productive of the desired information, and also to assure\nthat the questionnaire adheres to the prescribed 30 or 45 minutes\nin length. Following this pre-test, the questionnaire will be\nfinally reviewed with the client and approved for the commence-\nment of the field interviewing.\nThe same procedures will be carried forward in the development\nof the shorter telephone questionnaires.\n-16-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nF. Field Interviewing\nAll personal interviewing in the six states studied will be con-\nducted by qualified interviewing sub-contractors with whom Becker\nResearch has either worked previously on a satisfactory basis or\nwhose written credentials and references will be submitted and\nchecked out by Becker Research in advance. All interviewers in\neach state under study will personally be briefed and trained on\nthis assignment by the Becker Research Director of Field Opera-\ntions, at the local level in each state. Intermediary quality\ncontrol measures will be applied during the course of the inter-\nviewing and up to 20% validation of each interviewer's work will\nbe carried out by Becker Research.\nTelephone interviewing will be conducted through the Becker Re-\nsearch national telephone facilities in Boston by trained and ex-\nperienced Becker Research telephone interviewers working under\nthe full-time direct supervision of the Becker Research Field\nDirector.\nG. Data Processing and Reporting\nAll questionnaires will be key punched and computer processed\nwith the results produced on workable computer print-outs. Pre-\nliminary results can be reported by either telephone, mail or\npersonal consultation as soon as computer print-outs are avail-\nable. A full presentation of the analysis and tabular report,\ntogether with our interpretation of their meaning and implica-\ntions for political decision-making will be prepared and delivered.\nA visual chart presentation can be prepared for delivery to Mr.\nColson and his associates. Two full days of the time of John\nBecker and Irwin Harrision are to be made available for consulta-\ntion during the reporting and implementation phase of the work.\n-17-\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum\nV.\nBUDGET AND SCHEDULE\nThe following cost estimates have been prepared for various combinations\nof study components. Any of the options described below would in our\njudgement constitute an unusually productive and useful study, with\nOption 1 obviously providing the greatest amount of information and Op-\ntion 4 the least.\nOption 1\n1800 45-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states)\n600 45-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations\n(100 in each of 6 states)\n2000 10-minute telephone interviews nationwide\n200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski\nand Springfield)\n$112,000\nSchedule: Final report deliverable\n20-22 weeks from authorization\nOption 2\n1800 45-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states)\n600 45-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations\n(100 in each of 6 states)\n200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski\nand Springfield)\n$ 92,000\nSchedule: Final report deliverable\n20-22 weeks from authorization\nOption 3\n1800 30-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states)\n600 30-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations\n(100 in each of 6 states)\n2000 10-minute telephone interviews nationwide\n200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski\nand Springfield)\n$106,000\nSchedule: Final report deliverable\n20-22 weeks from authorization\nOption 4\n1800 30-minute personal interviews (300 in each of 6 states)\n600 30-minute personal interviews with ethnic concentrations\n(100 in each of 6 states)\n200 10-minute telephone interviews in Vermont (Winooski\nand Springfield)\n$ 86,000\nSchedule: Final report deliverable\n20-22 weeks from authorization\nOption 5\nDevelopmental focus-group interviews\n$\n600\nper state\n-18-\nplus travel expenses\nReproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum"
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