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President's Handwriting, November 1 thru 15, 1969 [3 of 3]

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OCR Page 1 of 101
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON November 14, 1969 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT this RE: Oil Imports Tuesday a Wednesday 1. The Cabinet Task Force on Oil Import Control is moving toward a recommendation of increased oil imports to result in a reduction in the current domestic oil price of $3.30 per barrel to $2.50 per barrel, and a tariff system rather than the current quota system to control imports. (Attached at Tab A is a one-page summary of the Task Force's work and at Tab B a nine-page summary. ) This recommendation appears to be defensible from an economic and a national security point of view. However, it would cause a major economic realignment, and the recommendation does not reflect the political effect of this realignment. 2. The international oil companies could readily adjust to this recommended change, though they would suffer a substantial loss in the value of their domestic production. The major oil companies, like Union Oil, would be hurt, would complain, but could adjust. The small refineries and the independent producers would be badly hurt -- some of them fatally. Due to their geographical concentra- tion and wealth, this group has substantial political punch and they would react violently to the recommendations. (This judgment has been forcefully expressed by George Bush, who feels even as small a reduction in price as to $3.00 would destroy his chances of winning the Senate seat.) While a reduction in crude prices would reduce gasoline and products costs to consumers generally, it would also reduce tax revenues to oil-producing states. This would force a state like Texas to increase property and/or income taxes, with predictable political results. The governors of these states have met with the Task Force and are now pressing for a meeting with the President in order to protest against any substantive change. In addition to the Texas race, the two other 1970 Senatorial races in oil states which would be adversely affected by any change are the McGee seat in Wyoming and the Montoya seat in New Mexico.

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