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Hispanic Strategy (3)
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Hispanic Strategy (3)
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HOUSTON TARRANCE V LANCE TARRANCE E ASSOCIATES HISPANIC LEADERS STUDY JUNE, 1980 3845 West FM 1960, Suite 400, Houston, Texas 77068 713-444-9010 Research for Decisions in Marketing, Politics and Public Affairs SURVEY OVERVIEW 1 BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Given the growth of the two-party system in Texas, traditional Democrat strongholds are becoming vulnerable to recruitment by the Republican Party. One such Texas group is the Hispanic community -- strongly con- servative, family-oriented, traditional, and economically upwardly mobile. The present study surveyed the leadership segment of the Hispanic community in three South Texas counties to obtain information in the following areas: 1. Involvement/interest in politics and elections; 2. Hispanic leadership political party identification; 3. Hispanic leadership goals/outlook for Texas/evaluation of Texas political party to accomplish state goals in the 1980's. KEY FINDINGS/IMPLICATIONS The key findings of the Hispanic Leadership Study are as follows: 1. The Hispanic leadership segment is significantly interested in elections and the political process: Interest in Politics. Very 59%; Somewhat 30%; None 11%. Importance of Hispanic Vote. Extreme 54%; Very 39%; Not 6%. 2. The Hispanic leadership is predominantly interested in local politics, not state politics. 3. As a whole, the Hispanic community is split concerning Hispanic influence in Austin: Hispanics Have Influence in Austin. 54% Hispanics Have No Influence in Austin. 43% 2 4. Most Hispanic leaders see themselves as Democrats: Past Voting Record. Democrat 66%; Republican 12%; Ticket- splitter 34%. Party Ideological Stand. Democrat 45%; Republican 20%. 5. However, Hispanic leadership concerns for the future and for Texas share a Republican view: Economic/Business. Jobs. Government Reform. 6. When asked which party would be most likely to accomplish their goals for Texas, the Republicans are mentioned out of proportion to either respondent voting record or party identification: Democrats. 31% Republicans. 22% Neither Party. 18% Both Parties. 15% 7. Finally, the Hispanic leadership indicated their present (June 26, 1980) voting preference in the federal election as follows: Reagan. 40% Carter. 36% Anderson. 7% Undecided. 17% 8. The results of this analysis indicate that while a plurality of the Hispanic vote (among community leaders) is predisposed toward supporting Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party, many hold values and attitudes which are compatible with Republican 3 Party positions. This is not to say that it will be easy to enlist the support of these voters in behalf of the Republican Party. In large part, Hispanics feel a larger sense of political efficacy at the local level rather than at the state level. Consequently, it is likely that Hispanic support for Republican candidates will increase at the local level (e.g., Mayor, City Council, etc.) before expanding into state politics at the legislative level. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 BACKGROUND The Texas Hispanic vote has historically gone to the Democrat Party. As Texas moves towards becoming a two-party state, a certain segment of the Hispanic community (traditional, conservative, family-oriented, business/ professional) should become good candidates for recruitment into the Republican Party. The Hispanic leadership community consists primarily of skilled professionals and small businessmen. These people may call them- selves Democrats, but their attitudes and beliefs suggest they are more in step with Republican philosophy. If significant numbers of the Hispanic leadership community can be successfully converted from their historical party identification, the Republican Party can establish a strong position in this important Texas voting segment. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The overall objective of the research was to aid Texas State Republican Party leadership in directing party recruitment and voting efforts among members of the Hispanic community. The survey data objectives were to obtain the following information from Hispanic community leaders: 1. Present and future economic outlook for Hispanics in Texas; 2. Hispanic leadership interest and involvement in Texas politics; 3. Hispanic leadership party identification; 4. Hispanic leadership direction/goals for the 1980's. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY DESIGN This report contains the results of a telephone survey of 300 registered Hispanic community leaders in Nueces, Cameron, and Hidalgo Counties (100 respondents were interviewed in each county). Responses to this survey were gathered during the period of June 24-26, 1980. 5 SAMPLE The sample for this survey was obtained by a stratified random sample of the following four respondent identification methods in each county: 1. Business owners/Leaders. Local Chamber of Commerce Hispanic membership lists. 2. Professionals. Community professional Hispanic membership lists (medical, legal, insurance, real estate, dental, and accounting). 3. Positional. Yellow pages calls to local business firms identified Hispanic managers and department heads (key employee group). 4. Reputational. Respondents identified by methods 1-3 were asked to identify other thought and opinion leaders in the local Hispanic community. This sample is not representative of the entire Hispanic community, but is a good estimate of the local leadership group. ADMINISTRATION All interviewing, coding, data processing, analysis, report preparation, printing and binding were completed at the general headquarters of V. Lance Tarrance & Associates in Houston, Texas. The project directors for this study were Jim Loyd and Richard E. Ryan, Ph.D., with consultation from Jan van Lohuizen, Ph.D., in design and data analysis. CHAPTER I HISPANIC LEADERSHIP DEMOGRAPHICS 19 Overview Sample. The sample of respondents for the Hispanic Leadership Study was constructed using the following four respondent sources in each county: 1. Business Owners/Leaders. Local Chamber of Commerce Hispanic membership lists were sampled to obtain business and industry leaders (27 percent of sample). 2. Professionals. Community professional Hispanic membership lists were sampled to obtain professional respondents in the following areas (40 percent of sample): medical legal insurance dental real estate accounting. 3. Positional. Calls to local business firms identified Hispanic managers and department heads. These respondents constituted the "key employees" group (33 percent of sample). 4. Reputational. Respondents were asked to indicate individuals they felt were thought and opinion leaders in the Hispanic community. These "reputational" respondents were then contacted and interviewed (classified in categories 1-3). Population Demographics. The sample drawn in the Hispanic Leadership Study can be used to describe this leadership group in Texas. Chart I compares the 1980 demographic data for the Hispanic leadership community with the 1978 demographic data for all Texas citizens and overall Texas Hispanics. As might be expected, the Hispanic leadership group is concentrated (61%) in the family adult stage between thirty-five and fifty-four, and is predominantly male (89%). As opposed to the general Hispanic or Texas population, the His- panic leadership group is predominantly native Texan (79%). 20 Considering education levels, the Hispanic leadership group more nearly approximates the general Texas population, but with a slightly higher college graduate level. The Hispanic leadership group is more conservative than the total Hispanic community, but not as conservative as the overall Texas population. The Hispanic leadership group shows a Democrat voting record but is much less extreme in Democrat affiliation than the overall Hispanic community. However, the leadership group does not show a significantly greater Repub- lican voting trend. Only twelve percent (12%) of the Hispanic leadership group call themselves Republicans, as compared with eight percent (8%) of all Hispanics and twenty-six percent (26%) of all Texans. 21 CHART I TEXAS HISPANIC OPINION LEADER POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS 1980 Texas 1978 Texas Hispanic Leader- Hispanic 1978 Texas ship Survey Population Population (N=300) (N=200) (N=1000) % % % 1. AGE Young Adult (18-34) 26 45 34 Family Adult (35-54) 61 43 37 Older Adult (55+) 13 12 30 2. EDUCATION Less Than High School 13 21 14 High School Graduate 24 31 31 Some College 25 34 24 College Graduate 38 14 31 3. IDEOLOGY Very Conservative 11 16 14 Conservative 44 31 51 Moderate 12 9 8 Liberal 24 30 23 Very Liberal 7 14 5 22 CHART I Continued 1980 Texas 1978 Texas Hispanic Leader- Hispanic 1978 Texas ship Survey Population Population (N=300) (N=200) (N=1000) % % % 4. VOTING Mostly Republican 6 5 15 Slightly Republican 7 3 11 The Man 20 20 19 Slightly Democrat 26 17 11 Mostly Democrat 40 55 45 5. POLITICAL TARGET GROUP Republican 12 8 26 Ticket-splitter 22 20 19 Conservative Democrat 34 34 31 Liberal Democrat 32 38 25 6. TURNOUT PROBABILITY High 35 15 25 Medium 54 69 67 Low 11 17 7 7. RESIDENCY IN TEXAS 1970-1980 9 1960-1970 5 Before 1960 7 Native Texan 79 23 CHART I Continued 1980 Texas Hispanic Leader- ship Survey (N=300) % 8. SEX Male 89 Female 11 9. OCCUPATION Business Owner 27 Professional 40 Key Employee 33 CHAPTER II OUTLOOK FOR HISPANICS IN TEXAS 24 Overview Effect of Inflation. Figure 1 shows the reported effects of inflation on the Hispanic leadership community. The data show that even among this elite group, a majority of respondents (53%) consider themselves to be seriously affected by inflation. Only a few (10%) claim no effect of inflation on their lives. Table 1 shows that inflationary effects are evenly spread across most demographic characteristics. Republicans seem slightly less bothered by inflation, the family adult population seems hardest hit, with older adults second, and younger people third. Business owners seem slightly less affect- ed by inflation than either professionals or key employees. Opportunity for Hispanic Economic Advancement. Figure 2 shows leadership evaluation of the opportunities for Hispanic economic advancement in South Texas. As indicated, a sizeable majority (63%) see positive opportunities for Hispanics. However, approximately one-third (34%) of the leadership group see the economic outlook as "only fair" or "poor". Inspection of Table 2 shows different economic prospects across the three counties sampled with Nueces lowest, Hidalgo in the middle, and Cameron highest. High turnout voters and Republicans are more encouraged by the economic opportunities in Texas than other groups. Younger and older age groups are less inclined to think that Hispanics have good economic opportunities in Texas. The data indicate that inflationary impact has had little effect on the respondents' attitudes towards economic opportunity for Hispanics. Problem for self/family. Figure 3 shows the major problems for self and family foreseen by the Hispanic leadership group. The most important group- ing is economic/business related, traditional Republican themes. This con- cern indicates that the Hispanic leadership group is an excellent target for 25 anti-inflationary campaign themes, especially considering the generally positive (63%) economic outlook of this group. Financial Security (17%) and Domestic Issues (19%) are the remaining important issue groupings in Figure 3. Although security is generally a Democrat issue, the remaining domestic issues are clearly Republican themes (energy programs, education improvement, population growth, welfare abuse, government control). Table 3 provides a selection of verbatim responses concerning the future outlook for Hispanics in Texas. 26 FIGURE 1 EFFECT OF INFLATION ON HISPANIC OPINION LEADERS = Extreme % Response = Very much 60 = Not much 53 % = None 50 15 45 % 40 10 30 20 38 35 10 Large Sma 11 Inflation Impact 27 TABLE II-1 R3. Inflation Effect. Hard Not so hard % % Aggregates 54 45 Geographic Areas Nueces 55 43 Cameron 52 48 Hidalgo 54 44 Turnout Low (N=33) 42 58 Medium 54 44 High 56 42 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 43 51 Ticket-splitter 57 43 Cons. Democrat 56 43 Mod/Lib Democrat 53 46 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 33 67 Under 35/Some coll. 45 52 35-54/No college 61 39 35-54/Some college 59 39 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 50 50 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 42 58 Sex 54 45 Male Female (N=34) 50 44 Occupation Independent professional 56 43 Business ldr./Owner 48 51 Key employee 59 39 For additional information, see pages 2, 24, 49, 69, 93, 157, and 180 of the cross-tabulations. 28 FIGURE 2 HISPANIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT IN TEXAS = Excellent = Good % Response = Only fair = Poor 63 % 60 24 50 40 34 % 30 8 39 20 26 10 Positive Negative Economic Opportunity 29 TABLE II-2 R4. Mexican/American Opportunities. Excellent Good Fair/Poor % % % Aggregates 24 39 34 Geographic Areas Nueces 12 45 42 Cameron 35 31 31 Hidalgo 25 40 30 Turnout Low (N=33) 12 61 24 Medium 23 35 39 High 30 37 31 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 35 38 27 Ticket-splitter 26 37 31 Cons. Democrat 20 44 34 Mod/Lib Democrat 23 34 40 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 6 67 28 Under 35/Some coll. 19 36 43 35-54/No college 21 44 29 35-54/Some college 29 39 29 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 41 5 50 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 21 32 47 Sex Male 25 38 33 Female (N=34) 15 41 41 Occupation Independent professional 16 39 45 Business ldr./Owner 26 40 29 Key employee 28 36 32 Inflation effect Hard 24 36 36 Not so hard 24 41 33 For additional information, see pages 2, 25, 50, 70, 94, 158, 181, and 323 of the cross-tabulations. 30 FIGURE 3 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING SELF/FAMILY OVER NEXT 5 YEARS (N=300) % Response 1. ECONOMY/BUSINESS 41 Inflation (33%) Business Growth (5%) Standard of Living (3%) 2. FINANCIAL SECURITY 17 Jobs (7%) Financial Security (10%) 3. SPECIFIC DOMESTIC PROGRAMS 19 Energy (5%) Education Improvement (4%) Problems of Population Growth (3%) Welfare Abuse (2%) Government Control (2%) Taxes (1%) Inept President (1%) Deep Water Port (1%) 4. GENERAL POSITIVE 10 World Peace (2%) Health & Happiness (5%) Family (2%) Morality (1%) 5. OTHER 10 Other Mention (3%) No Answer (7%) 31 SELECTED VERBATIM RESPONSES Question 2: When thinking about the next five or ten years, different things will be important to different people. In your own words, what is the most impor- tant thing that comes to mind when thinking about the future of yourself, your family and this part of Texas? Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Cameron Male Conservative Democrat 45-54 Native "Economy, definitely, getting the economy back on the line and getting rid of the recession that high prices have put us in." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Moderate Democrat 35-44 Native "Economy in ten years, when my boy is 18, he won't be able to drive or go to college because it will be too expensive." Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces works Conservative Democrat 18-24 Native "A lot of things, jobs, politics I keep up with the politics as much as I can if I had time I could write it all down education keeping up with the pace in this world." Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces works Liberal Democrat 45-54 Native "Employment and education well, we need more industry for better employ- ment and more qualified teachers better schools for better education. Female/ Before 1960/ Cameron works Liberal Democrat 25-34 Native "Economics the lack of industry here in the Valley unemployment is everywhere and most people depend on an organization called CETA in fact the whole police department is full of these people and there's no money behind the CETA organization the police department is going down- hill." 32 Question 2 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Nueces Male Conservative Independent 45-54 Native "There are so many things it is hard to pin one thing down I guess the most important thing would be education and the welfare of small children." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 25-34 Native "A good place for my family to live is an important issue to me and I want to keep it nice also, we need an honest government and responsible people in the future to get along in the world we need something done -- all these things are important to me." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Conservative Independent 35-44 Native "I wasn't ready for that question health and happiness the economy is affecting us, and I'm uncertain as to how healthy and happy we can be." Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces home Liberal Democrat 45-54 Native "Well, I don't like all this money being given away to people, like welfare and food stamps I work very hard for my money and I see people getting food stamps and welfare that don't deserve it also, U.S. should take care of its own before Cubans and other incoming groups." Female/ Nueces home Liberal Democrat 45-54 1960-1969 "Get rid of welfare system it is destructive to the recipients they are receiving enough money so they won't have to work this creates a negative nonworking spirit because they don't need to work, they don't want to work." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 55-64 Native "A lot of new people will be coming here, so I think we need good communi- cations with them, but especially with our neighbors to the south well, we need their friendship because we don't have too many of them in Europe." 33 Question 2 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Female/ 65 & Before 1960/ Nueces works Conservative Democrat over Native "Well, the most important thing is to wake up and do the best we can do there is too much government involvement in Texas almost all the jobs deal with government we shouldn't do away with welfare, but the ones that are able to work should be found jobs, even if it's sweeping the streets but on the other hand, the ones that are not able to work should be given the money...I also think that people should pay closer attention to the way the government is increasing land taxes every time they need revenue." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 35-44 Native "The economy spiraling inflation energy gouging of the public by oil companies our military strength we have an image now of not being as strong as we were if that's true, I'm gravely concerned." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 55-64 Native "Fuel shortage government should subsidize the oil companies to allow them to explore for fuels." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 55-64 Native "Energy we need to find better, more abundant, and cheaper forms of energy. Before 1960/ Cameron Male Moderate Republican 45-54 Native "Get Mr. Carter out of office he is ill advised and that man has put us into a very dangerous situation with all the economic problems, our foreign problems, and all the things we've done to Mexico nothing is good, but that man is sick." CHAPTER III HISPANIC LEADERSHIP INTEREST AND INVOLVEMENT IN TEXAS POLITICS 34 Overview Elections, Politics, and the Hispanic Vote. Figure 4 shows the ratings of the Hispanic leadership group on their interest in elections and their evaluation of the importance of the Hispanic vote. The data show that approximately sixty percent (59%) of the leadership is strongly interested in elections, and a nearly equal percent (54%) feel that Hispanic voting is very important in the political process. Inspection of Tables 4A and 4B show the following demographic character- istics of politically "involved" Hispanic leaders: 1. Residents of Cameron County are more politically involved. 2. As expected, high turnout respondents are more involved. 3. Interestingly, among identified political target groups, liberal Democrats are significantly more interested in elections, but both Republicans and liberal Democrats are equally concerned with getting out the Hispanic vote. 4. The college educated, and older respondent is more politically active. 5. Business owners/leaders are the least politically involved, while professionals show the most political involvement. Figure 5 shows the evaluation of government/political importance in the everyday life of the survey respondents. Only a small percentage of the Hispanic leadership group (15%) did not see government as an important (extremely/very) aspect of their lives. Table 5 shows very similar patterns of demographics as the interest and involvement questions. Level of Government for Involvement. Figure 6 indicates that the Hispanic leadership is strongly interested in local government, and very little interested in Texas state government. Inspection of Table 6 shows that high turnout voters are much more likely to be involved at all levels (local/state/national), while the low turnout voter is more likely to be interested only at the local level. In Texas, Republicans are more interested in the local races (understand- ably), while Democrats, especially liberal Democrats, are less involved 35 exclusively at the local level. Interestingly, younger voters were in- volved more exclusively at the local level while older voters were more likely to be involved at all levels. Overall, South Texas Hispanic leaders are very interested and involved in politics, but predominantly at the local level (especially Republicans). Increasing the Hispanic power in Austin politics could be a very profitable long term aim of the Republican party in increasing both Hispanic and Republican power in Texas. Hispanic Influence in Austin. Figure 7 gives the Hispanic leadership evaluation of Hispanic influence in Austin. Slightly more than half of the Hispanic leadership group feel that it has influence in Austin, while a sizeable minority (44%) feels it has little or no influence there. Table 7 gives the demographic breakout for the influence question. Surprisingly, given the lack of Republican political power in the state, Republican respondents (especially business owners) feel they have good levels of clout in Austin (73%). Ticket-splitters feel they have the least (46%), with Democrats (53%) near the sample average. These data suggest that "present" Republicans already have channels of influence at the state level, and a Republican campaign to increase Hispanic influence in Austin would have its greatest impact among ticket-splitting Hispanics in the leadership community. 36 FIGURE 4 SELF-INTEREST IN ELECTIONS AND IMPORTANCE OF HISPANIC VOTING = Low % Response 59 = Moderate 60 % 54% = Strong 50 40 39 % 30% 30 20 11% 10 6% Self-Interest in Importance of Elections Hispanic Voting Election/Voting Interest 37 TABLE III-4A R5. Political Interest. (N=34) Very Somewhat Not Interested Interested Interested % % % Aggregates 59 30 11 Geographic Areas Nueces 59 27 14 Cameron 69 24 7 Hidalgo 48 39 13 Turnout Low (N=33) 30 42 27 Medium 55 34 11 High 74 20 7 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 54 35 11 Ticket-splitter C 51 35 14 Cons. Democrat 54 34 12 Mod/Lib Democrat 71 20 9 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 22 50 28 Under 35/Some coll. 57 40 3 35-54/No college 47 32 21 35-54/Some college 71 22 7 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 64 27 9 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 68 21 11 Sex Male 59 30 11 Female (N=34) 56 29 15 Occupation Independent professional 78 15 7 Business ldr./Owner 47 39 14 Key employee 57 32 11 Inflation effect Hard 61 25 14 Not so hard 56 36 9 For additional information, see pages 2, 26, 51, 71, 95, 159, 182, and 324 of the cross-tabulations. 38 TABLE III-4B R6. Importance/People Voting. (N=19) Extremely Very Not Important Important Important % % % Aggregates 54 39 6 Geographic Areas Nueces 52 41 7 Cameron 62 35 3 Hidalgo 49 42 9 Turnout Low (N=33) 36 48 15 Medium 49 44 6 High 68 28 4 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 65 30 5 Ticket-splitter 51 35 14 Cons. Democrat 47 49 4 Mod/Lib Democrat 60 35 4 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 28 61 11 Under 35/Some coll. 60 36 3 35-54/No college 36 53 11 35-54/Some college 66 29 5 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 45 45 9 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 74 26 0 Sex Male 53 41 6 Female (N=34) 62 29 9 Occupation Independent professional 62 33 5 Business ldr./Owner 44 47 9 Key employee 61 35 4 Inflation effect Hard 59 35 6 Not so hard 47 46 7 For additional information, see pages 3, 27, 52, 72, 96, 160, 183, and 325 of the cross-tabulations. 39 FIGURE 5 IMPORTANCE OF GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS IN YOUR EVERYDAY LIFE = Strong % Response = Moderate 50 = Low 47 % 40 38 % 30 20 15% 10 Importance Of Government In Everyday Life 40 TABLE III-5 R11. Importance of Gov't/Politics Personally. (N=46) Extremely Very Not % % % Aggregates 38 47 15 Geographic Areas Nueces 47 41 12 Cameron 38 54 8 Hidalgo 28 46 26 Turnout Low (N=33) 21 55 24 Medium 34 51 14 48 38 14 High Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 41 49 11 Ticket-splitter 34 46 20 Cons. Democrat 29 55 16 Mod/Lib Democrat 48 39 14 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 17 50 33 Under 35/Some coll. 43 48 9 35-54/No college 26 54 19 35-54/Some college 46 38 15 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 36 45 18 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 37 63 0 Sex Male 39 46 15 Female (N=34) 24 56 21 Occupation Independent professional 48 40 12 25 54 21 Business ldr./Owner 44 44 11 Key employee Inflation effect 41 47 12 Hard 34 48 18 Not so hard For additional information, see pages 4, 31, 56, 76, 102, 164, 187, and 329 of the cross-tabulations. 41 FIGURE 6 LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT MOST IMPORTANT FOR HISPANIC ACTIVITY % Response 52 % 50 40 30 28 % 20 12% 10 7 % Local Combination Federal State Level of Government 42 TABLE III-6 Question 7: And when thinking about how government is important in our lives, in which level of government is it most important for people like yourself to be active -- local, state, or national? (N=22) (N=35) Local State National Combination % % % % Aggregates 52 7 12 28 Geographic Areas Nueces 54 6 14 25 Cameron 50 6 13 30 Hidalgo 52 10 8 30 Turnout Low (N=33) 67 3 15 15 Medium 49 11 13 26 High 52 4 9 35 Target Groups Republican (N=37) 62 3 14 22 Ticket-splitter 42 3 12 40 Cons. Democrat 60 9 9 23 Mod/Lib Democrat 47 10 14 29 Age/Education Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 72 6 17 6 Under 35/Some coll. 52 14 7 26 35-54/No college 50 13 14 22 35-54/Some college 54 2 12 33 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 41 0 18 41 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 47 11 5 37 Sex Male 52 6 11 30 Female (N=34) 53 15 15 18 Occupation Independent professional 51 10 13 26 Business ldr./Owner 54 8 12 27 Key employee 51 5 10 32 Inflation effect Hard 49 5 12 32 Not so hard 55 10 11 24 For additional information, see pages 3, 28, 53, 73, 97, 161, 184, and 326 of the cross-tabulations. 43 FIGURE 7 CAN HISPANICS AFFECT DECISIONS IN AUSTIN = Strong % Response = Moderate 54 % 50 44% 40 41 30 31 20 10 13 13 Yes No Hispanics Affect Decisions In Austin 44 TABLE III-7 R16. My ability to change State Government. (N=8) Agree Unsure Disagree % % % Aggregates 43 3 54 Geographic Areas Nueces 51 2 47 Cameron 43 2 55 Hidalgo 36 4 60 Turnout Low (N=33) 42 3 55 Medium 44 4 52 High 42 1 57 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 27 0 73 Ticket-splitter 51 3 46 Cons. Democrat 43 4 53 Mod/Lib Democrat 45 2 53 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 50 0 50 Under 35/Some coll. 34 0 66 35-54/No college 47 7 46 35-54/Some college 43 0 57 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 45 9 45 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 53 5 42 Sex Male 43 2 55 Female (N=34) 47 6 47 Occupation Independent professional 45 1 54 Business ldr./Owner 40 3 56 Key employee 45 3 52 Inflation effect Hard 43 2 55 Not so hard 43 4 53 For additional information, see pages 5, 33, 58, 78, 104, 166, 189, and 331 of the cross-tabulations. CHAPTER IV HISPANIC IDENTIFICATION WITH TEXAS STATE PARTIES 45 Overview Voting Behavior. The survey data show that the Hispanic leadership overwhelmingly claim to vote for the candidate, not the party (86%). Figure 8 shows how the leadership voted in the 1978 Senatorial election. The leadership group reported a comparatively even split between the Republican (Tower, 40%) and Democrat (Krueger, 38%) candidates. Table 8 shows that the Republican Hispanic leadership voted overwhelmingly for Tower, with ticket-splitters voting more for Tower than Krueger, conser- vative Democrats voting equally for both, and liberal Democrats voting overwhelmingly for Krueger. Party Identification in Texas. Figure 9 shows the Texas party that Hispanic leaders said stood for the same things they did. Forty-five percent (45%) choose the Democrats, twenty percent (20%) choose the Republicans, and thirty-five percent (35%) said neither. Table 9 suggests that Republicans are suffering less defection than Democrats, especially conservative Democrats. Democrat Identification. Figure 10 gives the reasons why forty-five percent (45%) of the Hispanic leadership identified themselves with the Democratic party. The major theme for identification with Democrats was the rejection of Republican social policies: too conservative (11%); big business oriented (10%); no help for minorities (7%). The second set of themes concerned the traditional Democrat cast of Texas politics (traditional to be Democrat, 14%). The third major grouping was dis- agreement with Republican economic policy. Seventeen percent (17%) had no reason for identifying themselves Democrat. The themes suggest a "stereotypical" and outdated view of Republicans coming from the last bastion of the FDR coalition. Republican Identification. Figure 11 gives the reasons why twenty percent (20%) of the Hispanic leadership community identify with the Republican party. As with the Democrats, the major theme is social policy: Democrats have "giveaway" programs (36%); too liberal (14%); communistic (5%). In addition, the Democrats suffer from a perception 46 of national ineptitude: Carter weak/inept (15%); crooks in party (7%). As opposed to their Democrat counterparts, very few Republican respondents are unable to articulate why they place themselves in the Republican camp (5%). Party Evaluation by Independents. Figure 12 shows an evaluation of political parties by respondents who did not identify with either Repub- lican or Democrat camps. The data show that a plurality of independents (39%) think parties are useful to provide a basis for competition and choice. The second largest combination (23%) also agrees that parties are useful to provide continuity and organization. However, a large percentage of the independents (20%) feels that parties are not at all important. This segment of the Hispanic leadership group (N=21) comprises seven percent (7%) of the total leadership population. Goal/Party for Texans in 1980's. Respondents were asked to identify their goals for Texas during the 1980's and the political party that they felt would help Texas most towards those goals. Figure 13 shows that economic/business issues are the main concern of Hispanic leaders, with social programs second and government reform third. Figure 14 shows that the Democrats are chosen most often (31%) as the best party for Texas, followed by the Republicans (22%). Eighteen percent (18%) say neither, fifteen percent (15%) choose both and thirteen percent (13%) are unsure. Compared to past voting behavior (Republican 12%, Democrat 66%) or ideological identification (Republican 20%, Democrat 45%), the indication of party best suited to obtain Texas' goals is startingly favorable to the Republican side. Federal Election 1980. Figure 15 shows the present voting intention of Hispanic leaders on the 1980 Presidential ballot with three candidates (June 26, 1980): Reagan 40% Carter 36% Anderson 7% Undecided 17% 47 Table 15 shows that Nueces County goes for Carter, while Cameron and Hidalgo go to Reagan. Reagan presently takes literally all Republicans (92%) and a plurality (42%) of ticket-splitters, while also drawing well among conservative Democrats (35%). Carter takes a majority (58%) of liberal Democrats and a plurality of conservative Democrats (42%). 48 Question 8: When you vote in an election, do you usually make your decision based mostly on the political party to which the candidate belongs, or on the candidate as an individual? (N=2) Party/ (N=17) (N=3) Other (N=19) Party/Dem. Party/Rep. Response Combined Candidate % % % % % Aggregates 6 1 1 6 86 Geographic Areas Nueces 10 1 2 10 76 Cameron 5 0 0 4 90 Hidalgo 2 2 0 5 91 Turnout Low (N=33) 3 3 0 9 82 Medium 5 1 1 6 88 High 8 1 1 7 83 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 0 5 0 3 92 Ticket-splitter 0 0 2 3 94 Cons. Democrat 6 0 0 5 89 Mod/Lib Democrat 11 1 1 11 74 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 0 6 0 0 89 Under 35/Some coll. 3 0 0 3 93 35-54/No college 7 0 0 6 88 35-54/Some college 5 1 1 6 85 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 0 5 5 18 73 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 21 0 0 11 68 Sex Male 6 1 * 6 85 Female (N=34) 3 0 3 6 88 Occupation Independent professional 9 1 1 5 84 Business ldr./Owner 6 0 1 7 85 Key employee 3 2 0 7 88 Inflation effect Hard 5 1 1 5 88 Not so hard 7 1 0 7 84 For additional information, see pages 3, 29, 54, 74, 98 & 99, 162, 185 and 327 of the cross-tabulations. 49 FIGURE 8 1978 TEXAS SENATE VOTING BEHAVIOR % Response 50 40 % 40 38 % 30 20 14 % 10 7 % Tower Krueger Do not Did not Recall Vote Voting Behavior 50 TABLE IV-8 R18. My Senatorial Vote. Krueger Tower Other % % % Aggregates 38 40 22 Geographic Areas Nueces 43 32 25 Cameron 41 42 17 Hidalgo 30 46 24 Turnout Low (N=33) 24 30 45 Medium 39 41 21 High 42 42 17 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 14 68 19 Ticket-splitter 28 38 34 Cons. Democrat 39 38 23 Mod/Lib Democrat 53 32 15 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 22 22 56 Under 35/Some coll. 48 34 17 35-54/No college 32 46 22 36 44 20 35-54/Some college 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 50 32 18 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 42 37 21 Sex 39 41 20 Male 26 35 38 Female (N=34) Occupation Independent professional 44 44 12 35 42 23 Business 1dr./Owner 36 34 29 Key employee Inflation effect Hard 39 39 22 Not so hard 37 42 21 For additional information, see pages 6, 35, 60, 80, 106, 168, 191, and 333 of the cross-tabulations. 51 FIGURE 9 WHICH TEXAS PARTY STANDS FOR THE SAME THINGS YOU DO % Response 50 45 % 40 35 % 30 20 % 20 10 Democrat Mixed/Unsure Republican Texas Party Identification 52 TABLE IV-9 Question 12: When thinking about politics and elections in this part of Texas, which party -- (1) the Democratic, or (2) the Republican, do you feel stands for the same kinds of things which you do? Unsure/ Democratic Republican Mixed % % % Aggregates 45 20 35 Geographic Areas Nueces 54 17 29 Cameron 46 15 39 Hidalgo 35 27 38 Turnout Low (N=33) 39 27 33 Medium 50 18 33 High 40 20 41 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 5 76 19 15 17 68 Ticket-splitter Cons. Democrat 60 13 27 65 7 28 Mod/Lib Democrat Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 33 28 39 Under 35/Some coll. 57 19 24 35-54/No college 49 17 35 35-54/Some college 39 22 39 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 36 23 41 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 53 5 42 Sex Male 44 20 36 Female (N=34) 53 18 29 Occupation Independent professional 48 22 30 Business ldr./Owner 46 15 39 Key employee 41 23 35 Inflation effect Hard 45 18 37 Not so hard 47 21 33 For additional information, see pages 4, 32, 57, 77, 103, 165, 188, and 330 of the cross-tabulations. 53 FIGURE 10 REASONS WHY HISPANICS IDENTIFY WITH DEMOCRATS (N=135) % Response 1. DISAGREE REPUBLICAN SOCIAL POLICY 31 Too Conservative/Selfish (11%) Big Business Connections (10%) No Help For Minorities (7%) Cutting Government Help (3%) 2. DEMOCRAT COUNTRY 18 Traditional Democrat (14%) Republicans Don't Stand Chance (4%) 3. DISAGREE REPUBLICAN ECONOMIC POLICY 13 Democrats For The Wealthy (8%) Cut Government Spending (5%) 4. DEMOCRAT PHILOSOPHY 12 Share Views/Stands (7%) For The People (5%) 5. OTHER 26 Other Mention (9%) No Answer (17%) 54 TABLE IV-10 SELECTED VERBATIM RESPONSES Question 13: And in your own words, what are one or two reasons why you feel that Repub- licans do not stand for the same kinds of things which you do? Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Cameron Male Conservative Democrat 35-44 1970-79 "Well, everyone down here is a Democrat up until the last year we really haven't had a chance to even elect a Republican you know, they don't stand a chance, so you just vote for the best Democrat." Female/ Before 1960/ Cameron works Liberal Refused 55-64 Native "The Democratic party reaches out to more people regardless of their economic level that's the main reason. II Hidalgo Male Liberal Democrat 35-44 1970-79 "Lack of sensitivity to the average man I think the only thing they have an interest in is big corporations and big business in other words they're for the rich man instead of the average man. = Before 1960/ Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 45-54 Native "Big business every Republican I know has been controlled by big business and have deteriorated small businesses and others created unemployment big businesses are for control in my mind, big businesses are controlled by Republicans Republicans stress unemployment, not outwardly, but they do they are for the right-to-work law, also. 11 Before 1960/ Cameron Male Liberal Democrat 35-44 Native "Well, first of all, Republicans are more conservative I think Democrats have more programs for the lower class people I just think Republicans hold back as far as money goes. II 55 Question 13 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Nueces Male Moderate Democrat 45-54 Native "I do not think that they fully understand the plight of the less privi- leged or lower middle class they have less welfare programs, etc particularly this year. II Nueces Male Liberal Democrat 25-34 1970-79 "Social issues health, welfare and education they are cutting down the ability of the government to help the people just look at Ronald Reagan. II 56 FIGURE 11 REASONS WHY HISPANICS IDENTIFY WITH REPUBLICANS (N=60) % Response 1. DISAGREE DEMOCRAT SOCIAL POLICY 55 Giveaway Programs/Welfare (36%) Too Liberal (14%) Communistic (5%) 2. DEMOCRAT LEADERSHIP POOR 22 Carter Weak/Inept (15%) Crooks In Party (7%) 3. REPUBLICAN PHILOSOPHY 8 4. DISAGREE DEMOCRAT ECONOMICAL POLICY 3 5. OTHER 12 Other Mention (7%) No Answer (5%) 57 TABLE IV-11 SELECTED VERBATIM RESPONSES Question 14: And in your own words, what are one or two reasons why you feel that Democrats do not stand for the same kinds of things which you do? Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Nueces Male Moderate Democrat Age Native "I think they spend too much money they don't have much budget control it seems like they're always finding ways of spending money, instead of the other way around." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Conservative Republican 45-54 Native "They're always for 'give away' they say they understand the poor, yet they live in high society how can they do this? they are 'quiet racists' = Female/ Nueces works Conservative Democrat 35-44 1970-79 "Democrats give too much money away to everyone they are spoiling every- one with the money that taxpayers have to pay. Cameron Male Conservative Republican 45-54 1970-79 "They're trying to have equal everything and everyone in the same class it doesn't work, you can't get away from capitalism." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Liberal Republican 25-34 Native "Because they are more liberal as I said, Democrats are more expensive because they go from program to program they are also for more jobs." 58 FIGURE 12 EVALUATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES BY HISPANICS NOT IDENTIFIED AS REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT (N=105) % Response 1. COMPETITION IDEAS/ISSUES 39 Encourages Competition/Choice (18%) Platforms/Issues (8%) Different Views (8%) Check & Balance (5%) 2. ORGANIZES GOVERNMENT 23 Run Government (8%) Organization (3%) Unite (7%) Policy Direction -- Economics (5%) 3. PARTY NOT IMPORTANT 20 Party Not Important/Relevant (10%) Individual Is Important (10%) 4. OTHER 18 Other Mentioned (8%) No Answer (10%) 59 TABLE IV-12 SELECTED VERBATIM RESPONSES Question 15: And in your own words, what are one or two reasons why you feel political parties are important in state and local government and politics? Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces works Liberal Democrat 35-44 Native "Because we have to have competition with one there is no need to improve we'd get stagnated. II Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Conservative Democrat 45-54 Native "Because of competition just like business, if you don't mix it up a little then eventually there will be a monopoly on it so I think you have to have competition the best man for the job in other words. II Hidalgo Male Moderate Democrat 25-34 1970-79 "Because they get people involved well, also because they have the financial backing to support the different candidates. 11 Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Moderate Refused 25-34 Native "I don't feel that parties are important at all they are all just a bunch of bureaucrats and they slow things up." Cameron Male Conservative Democrat 35-44 1970-79 "The people need to stick together in a group so that they believe in the same things and their beliefs become stronger if they are united." Nueces Male Liberal Independent 45-54 1960-69 "I feel that Texas should have two strong political parties we may have people in one party that have been in a long time and the other party can check up on that party we should have a fluctuation of candidates." 60 Question 15 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Cameron Male Conservative Republican 35-44 Native "They set down a basic philosophy and which most candidates follow it gives some people a basic idea of a candidate's views." 61 FIGURE 13 HISPANIC DIRECTION OF TEXAS STATE GOALS IN 1980's (N=300) % Response 1. ECONOMIC/BUSINESS 34 Economy/Inflation (15%) More Industry (7%) Keep Texas Resources (5%) Texas Energy Program (4%) Power For Texas (3%) 2. SOCIAL PROGRAMS/SECURITY 22 Jobs/Full Employment (9%) Education Improvement (6%) Alien Problem/Relations With Mexico (7%) 3. GOVERNMENT REFORM 16 Government Waste (7%) Welfare Waste (3%) Tax Cuts (5%) Two-Party System (1%) 4. OTHER 28 Other Mentioned (6%) No Answer (22%) 62 TABLE IV-13 SELECTED VERBATIM RESPONSES Question 19: In your own words, if you could direct the state of Texas toward an important goal or objective in the 1980's, what would that goal be? Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Liberal Republican 25-34 Native "Strong economy high employment well, like I said earlier, in order to have a strong economy we should have high employment to achieve that." Nueces Male Conservative Democrat 45-54 1960-69 "Do away with a lot of freebies a lot of money being spent on people who don't need it welfare being abused by wrong people appropriate money in a better way." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Conservative Republican 45-54 Native "I would make everyone work for a living everyone wants benefits for free I would help unemployment there's jobs for these people, they just don't want them." Before 1960/ Cameron Male Moderate Democrat 35-44 Native "To change the property tax laws it's regarding company operations state tax they should tax on the income earned they won't do this though because the government won't vote for something that works against them it's not fair that we get all of the tax." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Liberal Democrat 35-44 Native "I would say the education system I would go back to the basics and have more opportunities for minorities and implement a bilingual program.' Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces works Conservative Democrat 45-54 Native "Give the states back to the states take away some of the money from national programs and give it to state programs." 63 Question 19 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Conservative Democrat 45-54 Native "I think the people that work fifty or sixty hours a week (in labor) should have less deducted rather than more this would give people a little more incentive to work more some just work the forty hours so the government can't take more money from them." Before 1960/ Hidalgo Male Conservative Independent 35-44 Native "Well, get the fed's off my back and let me sell petroleum to other states well, let me give you an example we (the people in Texas) are having to pay more for our own natural gas than the eastern states have to pay to get our gas." Before 1960/ Cameron Male Moderate Democrat 35-44 Native "That's a sweeping question I guess better job opportunities and economic prosperity particularly in middle or light industries the job opportunities should be increased. 11 Before 1960/ Cameron Male Conservative Republican 45-54 Native "Better relations with the Mexican people who are our neighbors and who could help us as we could help them." Nueces Male Conservative Republican 35-44 1960-69 "Primarily I'd put taxes as the number one thing we need to become self- sufficient by not increasing taxes or the number of programs we have to make do with what we have we shouldn't overtax because that will drive out the businesses." Female/ Before 1960/ Nueces works Liberal Democrat 25-34 Native "We need to become more progressive well, first of all we have a problem with illegal aliens, but some have been here many years and have helped to make our community progressive we need to change some laws to help them become citizens." 64 Question 19 continued Length of County Sex Ideology Party Age Residence Female/ Before 1960/ Cameron home Conservative Democrat 35-44 Native "Go back to the Bible seek God's wisdom and direction in helping make decisions of who to put in political office." Before 1960/ Nueces Male Conservative Democrat 25-34 Native "To gear the state toward a better understanding to cut down on the high taxes and make a better way of living for everyone paying bills is getting harder and harder, the high taxes are really affecting the poor people." 65 FIGURE 14 TEXAS POLITICAL PARTY BEST ABLE TO HELP ATTAIN YOUR GOAL % Response 31% 30 22% 20 18% 15% 13% 10 Democrat Republican Neither Both Unsure/ Present Parties Don't Party Know Party to Attain Goal 66 TABLE IV-14 Question 20: And which political party do you feel can best help to attain that goal or objective? (Asked of those respondents that mentioned Goal/Objective in Question 19.) (N=43) (N=36) Democratic Republican Neither Both % % % % Aggregates 31 22 18 15 Geographic Areas Nueces 42 18 19 10 Cameron 35 19 19 19 Hidalgo 17 29 17 17 Turnout Low (N=27) 37 22 19 7 Medium 32 23 19 13 High 29 20 17 21 Target Groups Republican (N=37) 3 56 16 13 Ticket-splitter (N=47) 4 26 34 26 Cons. Democrat 49 13 11 14 Mod/Lib Democrat 41 15 17 12 Age/Education Under 35/No coll. (N=15) 27 20 27 7 Under 35/Some coll. 27 27 23 13 35-54/No college 36 22 14 16 35-54/Some college 25 22 18 18 55 & over/No coll. (N=10) 70 10 0 10 55 & over/Some coll. (N=15) 47 13 20 13 Sex Male 31 22 18 17 Female (N=28) 32 21 21 4 Occupation Independent professional 33 24 19 10 Business ldr./Owner 33 20 19 15 Key employee 27 22 18 21 Inflation effect Hard 31 19 18 17 Not so hard 31 23 19 14 For additional information, see pages 7, 36, 61, 81, 107, 169, 192, and 334 of the cross-tabulations. 67 FIGURE 15 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BALLOT % Response 50 40% 40 36 % 30 20 17% 10 7% Reagan Carter Anderson Presently Undecided Presidential Candidate Choice 68 TABLE IV-15 R21. Presidential Ballot. (N=21) Anderson Reagan Carter Undecided % % % % Aggregates 7 39 36 17 Geographic Areas Nueces 6 27 56 11 Cameron 8 46 30 16 Hidalgo 7 45 23 25 Turnout Low (N=33) 0 39 36 24 Medium 6 39 38 18 High 10 40 35 15 Target Groups Republican (N=37) - 0 92 0 8 Ticket-splitter 5 42 15 38 Cons. Democrat 8 35 42 15 Mod/Lib Democrat 10 22 58 9 Age/Education - Under 35/No coll. (N=18) 0 39 28 33 Under 35/Some coll. 14 36 33 17 35-54/No college 0 36 49 15 35-54/Some college 10 42 31 17 55 & over/No coll. (N=22) 5 55 27 14 55 & over/Some coll. (N=19) 5 26 53 16 Sex / Male 8 41 34 18 Female (N=34) 3 26 56 15 Occupation Independent professional 7 40 45 7 Business ldr./Owner 8 40 31 22 Key employee 6 38 35 20 Inflation effect Hard 7 38 36 19 Not so hard 7 39 38 16 For additional information, see pages 7, 37, 62, 82, 109, 170, 193, and 335 of the cross-tabulations.