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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files
Folder Title: [Polling Information-1982] (6 of 6)
Box: 65
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
DMI
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THEMES AND ISSUES OF THE 1982 CAMPAIGN
July 21, 1982
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
2
I. INTRODUCTION
A consistent set of themes and issues that deal to the strengths
of the Reagan Administration must frame the campaign in the fall if we
are to be successful in holding our present position in the Congress
and keep the Reagan revolution alive. The themes and issues discussed
below not only should structure and guide the President's activities
-- particularly the timing and content of speeches and his schedule --
but they also should set the general tone for every Republican
candidate running for office this year, help guide the
administration's media strategy, and channel the efforts of our
spokespersons. It is clear that the President has the power to set
the general political agenda in July and August; no candidate or
committee can perform this valuable function.
Additional reinforcement of the themes and issues we outline can
and must be given by the three major Republican committees. This
should be done first and foremost through guidance on issues they
offer candidates, and by providing them with the theme/issue structure
for their advertising and their surrogates.
II. CAMPAIGN THEMES
Effective themes for the 1982 campaign should draw on the strong
political legacy of the '80 campaign, as focused by the 1981-82 agenda
of the Administration.
At bottom, the specific 1980 campaign legacy that provides a
foundation for the 1982 elections is that voters supported the kind of
change Ronald Reagan personified and that he now can provide the
strength of leadership to deal effectively with the economy; an
economy less buffeted by inflation, but more torn by unemployment.
More generally, the 1980 campaign represented a rejection of the
philosphy (but not always the specific policies) of the Democratic
liberal welfare state. It thus provided this administration with a
mandate for change and reflected an acceptance of an approach to
governance as articulated by Ronald Reagan in 1980. There abides
strong public support for the principles embedded in that approach,
and we should keep public focus on these principles:
The size of the federal government is too large and too
wasteful -- hence, both the functions and the spending of the
federal government must be curbed.
A direct correlary to the above principle follows. We must set
in force a philosphy of governance that will maximize
individual initiative. This means a reduction in government
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
3
regulation and taxes to increase individual incentives while
exhibiting sensitivity to the inordinate risks borne by some
members of our society in times of change.
Economic growth will maximize opportunities for all Americans.
While this particular principle is at present brought into
question by the levels of unemployment the economy is
experiencing, nevertheless, we can and should articulate the
point that we are setting in place the circumstances which will
generate expanded growth employment and opportunities for
Americans in the decade of the 80's. We should not forget that
the purpose of our policies is to grant the option to every
individual in our society to have more.
America must seek peace through strength -- embarking upon
simultaneously increasing defense spending as well as
initiating negotiations that promise the reduction of nuclear
arms.
The specific pieces of our program which should be emphasized and
the unique characteristics of this President should be conditioned by
perceptions that the electorate already holds. Briefly this President
has been successful in keeping the following campaign promises. He
has:
provided the strong moral leadership the country sought in
1980,
reduced taxes,
kept our defenses strong,
enhanced our relationships with the allies,
cut down the size of the bureaucracy,
reduced the amount of federal regulation, and
"even though prices are still increasing," Ronald Reagan has
slowed down the pace of inflation.
The most valuable perceptual asset that we must enhance through
the campaign process this fall, is the impression held by a strong
majority of Americans that this President, as opposed to the
Democrats, does have "the best interests of the country at heart."
The specific presidential characteristics that we should reinforce
over the next hundred days are that Ronald Reagan is strong, capable,
effective, gets things done; in short, a President whose foreign and
domestic policies are beginning to move the country in the right
direction.
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
4
The most effective theme for the Democrats will be "fairness," and
the hurt induced by the depression. While we must not expend undue
resources to counter this charge, nevertheless we must remain
sensitive to this attack theme by considering every policy, position
and symbol that we generate over the next few months against the
question, "Does this exemplify a fair and equitable President and
administration?" In particular, the President should project an
awareness of the human dimensions of the economic calamity that a
large portion of our economy is experiencing because of the present
high levels of unemployment and bankruptcy. It is strongly suggested
that the President reflect in his speeches a knowledge and
understanding of the extent to which Americans are "hurting"
economically. He must avoid attempts to put the best light on present
circumstances by recourse to statistical arguments about unemployment.
When this has been done in the past, Americans assumed he was either
uninformed or uncaring about the unemployed, or both. Contrarily, it
would be advantageous to perhaps say that the scope and extent of the
economic difficulty we are experiencing is both larger than expected
and completely unacceptable to this adminstration. It will take time
to turn around the decades of the irresponsible and ineffective
policies of "tax, tax and spend, spend." When this is done, we will
go a long way to project greater sensitivity and understanding to not
only those Americans who are now unemployed, but to that even larger
group who, because of what they see and hear, fear unemployment.
There are two other issues that we must deal with specifically to
neutralize the Democrats' cry of unfairness. These issues are social
security and policies and positions that impact women and are reviewed
in a section that follows.
III. ISSUES
It is absolutely imperative that we focus the issues on three or
four topics and repeat our position on those issues, unremittingly,
between now and the campaign. The scope of issues the President now
deals with is both too broad and too unfocused to serve us well in
guiding his public schedule and speech agenda. There are many
intriguing policies offered by others that will clutter unnecesarily
our agenda this fall if we give them attention. The flat tax ranks in
the first order of such issues.
The specific issues we should highlight are discussed under three
rubrics -- the mega issues that should dominate the campaign, some
selected group issues and some issues to be avoided.
IV. THE MEGA ISSUES
Introduction
There are only three issues that require our undivided attention
through 1982: economic recovery, the perceived fairness of our
programs and peace. This holds not only because most Americans'
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
5
greatest concern still centers on the economy, but also because
people's view of the economy will strongly condition the fall
elections of 1982. While it would be counter-productive to overstate
what has been accomplished to date with the economy, especially with
unemployment, we must not leave it to the media and the Democrats to
describe the present economic scene in their terms alone which would
converge almost solely on the equity issue. We are well positioned on
the peace issue and simply need to reinforce consistently our stated
policy on nuclear reduction.
The Economy
The one issue we cannot avoid is the economy. To date, Americans
have exercised rather considerable patience in waiting for our
economic program to work. While inflation has moderated, both
unemployment and interest rates have increased dramatically since
Reagan became President. Americans at this juncture, however, do not
feel that the Reagan Administration can be blamed for the current
recession. Contrarily, most believe that it will take at least a year
or longer before the impact of Reaganomics will be fully felt. While
this perception is now strongly held, this reservoir of patience will
quickly run very dry should the Democrats alone interpret for the
country where we have come from and where we are now and if,
therethrough, Americans lose faith in the Reagan economic program. As
long as large numbers of Americans believe that our programs will
eventually redound to their economic benefit, we will not inherit the
political whirlwind born of economic frustration.
Economic Recovery Program. There are action steps that can be
taken to make our case. First, while we must not minimize the extent
to which the country at present is suffering, we should encourage
Americans to be both patient and hopeful. There have been
accomplishments and they should be highlighted. It is essential in
this regard that we speak of our economic program generically and not
get involved in defending alone the individual elements of the
program. The focus must remain on these six points:
The Reagan Administration will continue to exert pressure to
reduce total government spending.
It will stand behind its 10% across-the-board tax cut for
individuals. (Let's not clutter this up with any emphasis now
on such revolutionary changes as flat rate taxation. Our
highlighting this issue can be construed as political cop-out
and diversion.)
It will persist in eliminating undue and cumbersome regulations
that smother initiative without sufficient offsetting benefits
to society at large.
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
6
Pressure will be increased on all federal agencies to reduce
waste and fraud.
The administration will encourage the Federal Research Board to
increase the supply of money consistently to assure a steady
rate in the growth of the money supply. (This does not
perclude our establishing a commision to investigate the causes
and consequences of high interest rates although we are not
recommending that this be done at the moment.)
This administration will transfer functions that it has
performed in the past back to the local and state governments
who can perform those services more efficiently, responsively
and sensitively.
In sum, there are strong indications that we will be better off
a year from now than we are now. Because of our total program,
the most serious problem a year ago the fires of inflation are
now being banked. This is a forerunner of other positive
changes in the economy that will come.
If there is one lesson that comes out of the experience of 1981,
it is that our program has greater impact than the sum of its parts.
Whenever the President or others spoke of the economic recovery
program in total, the response was much more favorable than when only
one element, such as the reduction in government spending or taxes,
was singled out.
Balanced Budget Amendment. There is, however, another economic
objective we cannot ignore that the President addressed on many
occasions in the past which was not an explicit part of his economic
program -- the deficit. President Reagan said we could accomplish our
economic goal of stimulating economic growth (through the above steps)
and move toward a balanced budget.
It is important that we highlight our continuing commitment to a
balanced budget through our support of the balanced budget amendment.
But grandstanding the issue on the Capitol steps has its dangers
which, if ignored, can bruise us politically.
Critics could claim that Reagan's support of the balanced budget
amendment reflects cynical manipulation and nothing beyond. To
undercut such outcries, other concrete steps must be taken to drive
home the depth and strength of this administration's commitment to
bring run-away deficits under control.
The Congress must not be allowed to break the present budget or to
avoid the tough spending decisions through the old ruse of "continuing
resolutions." If we waiver on this point, we lose both the issues of
reducing the size of government and the balanced budget high ground.
We should not forget that the American people believe that a balanced
budget ranks as the top key element in Reagan's economic program.
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
7
Furthermore, we would compromise the President's strongest political
assets of strength, consistency, can do, and leadership if we let this
issue slip.
We must commit now to bring the outyear budgets in even closer
balance when we submit our budget in January of 1983, but our first
and most important step is to press the Congress for a record vote on
the amendment.
In sum, if we hang tough, the balanced budget amendment provides
us with the opportunity to:
put the President back in control of the budgetary process,
re-synchronize the President's program with his principle of
establishing vision and direction for the current government
activities, and
put back into force the single driving element of our 1981
legislative successes: namely, a unified Republican effort.
Reagan Federalism. Even though Reagan's New Federalism has come
under severe attack, even from some of our own in the Senate, the
Federalism theme can be used by the President in the 1982 elections to
fulfill his 1980 promise to bring government closer to the people. It
is essential to advance Reagan Federalism as:
a philosophy of governance and a perennial issue of
Constitutional government;
a set of themes and not a cluster of programs;
an approach to governance compatible with the President's
Economic Recovery Program, and consistent with the President's
commitment to reduce the level of government;
a strategy aimed at a significant contributor to the nation's
economic problems -- big, unresponsive government distant from
the people, and,
a strategy for reducing the governmental bureaucratic complex
that has circumvented state legislatures.
The public debate on Federalism will, however, be lost if the
arguments are made at the programmatic level, but can be won if it is
presented thematically.
Future-Oriented Economic Issues. The single most dramatic
perceptual change the Reagan victory induced was to position the
Republican party as the party of innovation and change. That
perception is an asset (now somewhat diminished through the recession)
and we should build upon it -- especially if by October the economy
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
8
gives us some breathing room so that we can refocus some resources on
space, and high tech industries. Further we should seek out, define,
and force some votes on the Hill that can be construed as votes for
the future, and against the past as Americans have experienced it
under the Democrats over the last 40 years. These opportunities would
be of special value if they are linked to the economy, education and
state of the art technology all focused on the promise and vision of
what America's real economic potential can be. This could present us
with an opportunity to challenge America's business leaders to plan
for and actualize that vision.
Peace Through Strength
Great political pressure will be brought to bear on the
administration through the "peace" and anti-nuclear movements. We
should continue to co-opt the peace marchers' positions whenever
possible.
At present, we are positioned just about where we should be on the
scale -- Peace-Strength. To maintain that position:
The President should continue to reinforce his Eureaka College
position on the elements of arms control frequently.
A White House review of the Geneva negotiations with our chief
negotiator might be in order late September or early October.
Use George Schultz -- who so well projects a thoughtful,
reasoned and balanced approach to foreign policy -- in the
spokesman role this fall.
Assess very carefully any situation that even on a token basis
might involve American troops in a shooting war.
V. GROUP ISSUES
Reagan Democrats
Democrats who voted for Reagan were primarily drawn to us not only
because of the economic issues, but also because of the Reagan
position on social issues. Given the profile that we have recently
developed on who these individuals are and what issues they are
concerned about, the administration should continue to take a high
profile on the issue of voluntary prayer in the schools. Busing on
the other hand must be handled very carefully because of its civil
rights overtones.
In this regard between now and the election, the President should
re-address the "family issues," not primarily in terms of policies or
programs, but in terms of his own commitments and priorities. Those
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
9
values that were appealed to during the campaign are still very much
alive -- particularly among the Reagan Democrats -- and we should
reinforce our ties with them.
Women
Women represent our single most serious source of political
alienation. The reasons for that alienation are complex and
multifaceted, but we cannot drift into the fall elections without
providing some positive pegs for Republican candidates who will take
heat from this alienation. At minimum we should:
propose legislation guaranteeing equal compensation for equal
work, or if sufficient laws are already on the books revitalize
and strengthen their enforcement,
boost and highlight what we have accomplished for women,
keep the emphasis on our peace negotiations,
express interest and concern in the particular problems of
working women, especially those who are heads of households and
single.
highlight any children's issues -- drugs, education, health
care, etc.
Present and Soon-to-Be Social Security Recipients
We should strongly consider launching either a televised or highly
visible presidential speech -- along the lines already outlined -- on
social security to provide both a bridge to diffuse the political heat
from the issue until the Greenspan Committee submits its report and to
provide, as well, a frame of reference for our Republican candidates.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
We should attempt to frame the campaign along the following theme
line:
For much too long the country has suffered economic
dispair because of the failure of past Democratic
policies. President Reagan and Republican policies,
some of which have been implemented over the last two
years, have started to change the basic course of our
economy and the country from going in the wrong
direction to going in the right direction. This
election will decide basically whether we continue to
move forward with these new policies which are going to
give Americans a better and more prosperous life, or
whether we return to the failed Democratic policies.
Themes and Issues of the 1982 Campaign
10
Hence, as the November vote now rapidly approaches, there is
probably little substantive change that we can induce to influence the
course of the economy or the status of our strategic arms reduction
talks with the Soviets. However, it is imperative that we marshall
all of our resources to condition the key question the undecided or
weakly-commited voter will ask himself as he walks in to the polling
booths this fall.
Basically if that question, because of the way we structure our
dealing with the issues and the way we highlight them, hinges on,
"Should America turn back to the failed policies of the liberal
welfare state, or has sufficient progress been made to justify
granting the Reagan Administration and the Republicans at least two
more years to apply their principles of governance to the present
problems that bruise America?" -- we will clearly win more seats than
we would if we simply let this election float along its natural
course, which could easily find us losing 40 congressional seats and
perhaps even the Senate.
We should also be prepared to highlight Reagan's strength of
leadership and his commitment to peace by considering other somewhat
more dramatic action this coming fall. A meeting with Breshnev with
all of its risks might provide such an event. Such a meeting would
dominate the news in a critical period and bring into focus the
President's commitment to peace.
Another clear option that we should not ignore would be to call
the Congress back into special session. This would be appropriate, in
particular, if they saddle us with a plethora of unresolved
legislation critical to the country or subvert the budgetary process
one more time through the make-shift alternative of budgeting by
continuing resolutions.
Clearly we have outlined more issues than the President should
handle this fall. He should concentrate primarily on no more than
four. At this writing three should be:
the economy,
peace,
sensitivity to fairness, and
the fourth issue to be determined if needed mid-September.
A limited number of targeted issues that focus on "Reagan
Democrats," women, farmers, and small businessmen that do not alienate
our base, can be handled by surrogates and the Administration more
generally.
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
1050 Seventeenth Street N.W., Suite 1100, Washington, D.C. 20036, (202) 822-9010
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
Lyn Nofziger
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
August 16, 1982
RE:
President's Speech
Some General Comments
The speech as now written is too defensive. The phrase
"biggest tax increase in history" is repeated so many times
that this could be the single phrase that the passive and
skeptical television viewer remembers.
It doesn't have enough "soul." I understand it must have a
quantitative thrust, but as now written, there are too many
numbing numbers. Perhaps the emotional appeal can be generated
in the close, which I haven't seen, but clearly we need to lighten
up the statistical references.
We do not deal strongly enough to the issue of the fairness of
these tax changes or to the President's pledge to get that 3:1
spending cut ratio.
Some Specific Suggestions
Possible insert, page 2, after paragraph 2, that ends..."this
Administration (or this President)"
Now you may have heard that some corporate interests oppose
this bill. And that's right, some do. As a matter of fact
some in Congress of my own party object to this bill--and
strongly. I am told by many that this bill is not politically
popular and it may not be--why then do I support it--I support
it because it's right for America--I support it because it's fair.
I support it because it will, when combined with our cuts in
government spending reduce interest rates and put more Americans
back to work again.
President's Speech
August 16, 1982
Page Two
Page 3, paragraph 3. Expand the nature of the "turnaround" in
government policy. This is our big card--we need to play it more
strongly!
Page 5, paragraph 1. Expand why high unemployment worries and
concerns the President.
Strong Points to Keep
Puts this bill in our historical context
o
Shows how much progress has been made to date
o
Provides hope.
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
U.S. NATIONAL STUDY #1
Survey Results
Prepared for:
Tne National Republican Congressional Committee
by
Market Opinion Research
Detroit, Michigan
February/March, 1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
IS THE COUNTRY ON THE RIGHT OR WRONG TRACK?
100
90
RIGHT TRACK
WRONG TRACK
80
74
75
74
71
70
71
60
57
53
50
53
52
1 I
49
#1
39
40
40
37
40
30
34
33
20
19
19
18
16
10
15
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1975
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
F/H
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Most Important Problem
Combined Responses
1983
1982
Unemployment/Recession/Imports/
Interest rates
57%
50%
Foreign affairs
22
23
Government spending (too much)
11
14
Inflation mentions
10
32
Social Security/Elderly
5
7
Crime
4
11
Tax mentions
3
4
Government spending (not enough)
2
7
Energy problems
2
4
All economy/Economic problems
74
73
Reagan's policies/Reaganomics
*
1
*Less than .5%
- 2 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
ISSUE PRIORITIES
VOTERS
100
2ND/3RD CHOICE
90
1ST CHOICE
80
73%
70
60
PERCENT
52%
50
A - REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT
41%
3 I I
40
B - PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY
34%
32%
31%
C - CONTROL INFLATION
30
27%
D - CONTROL ARMS RACE
20
E - REDUCE DEFICIT
10
F - REDUCE SPENDING
0
G - MAINTAIN STRONG DEFENSE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
NATIONAL ECONOMY
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO
100
90
BETTER
WORSE
80
70
65
60
63
55
4 I I
PERCENTAGE
50
54
55
50
49
40
35
30
25
22
20
16
20
12
12
10
9
0
NOV.
FEB.
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
NATIONAL ECONOMY
A YEAR FROM NOW
100
90
WILL BE BETTER
WILL BE WORSE
80
70
60
60
53
PERCENT
52
50
50
47
47
51
5
40
36
30
27
20
23
22
17
19
15
10
14
9
0
NOV.
F/N
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1961
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
INFLATION
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO
100
BETTER
90
WORSE
80
70
64
60
60
6 I I
PERCENTAGE
50
43
46
40
44
40
3984
36
30
28
33
33
27
27
20
15
10
13
0
NOV.
FEB.
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
INFLATION
A YEAR FROM NOW
100
90
++++.
WILL BE BETTER
WILL BE WORSE
80
70
60
PERCENT
50
7 I I
45
41
41
40
39
37
42
30
30
33
29
26
20
25
21
17
10
13
0
NOV.
F/M
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1901
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
INTEREST RATES
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO
100
90
++++ BETTER
WORSE
80
70
69
64
60
60
PERCENT
53
50
8 I
40
30
23
24
22
20
19
16
16
10
15
11
0
NOV.
F/M
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
INTEREST RATES
A YEAR FROM NOW
100
90
WILL BE BETTER
++++.
WILL BE WORSE
80
70
60
54
PERCENT
50
50
49
49
40
6 I I
30
30
24
20
24
15
10
12
0
NOV.
F/M
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
HIT MENU ITEM
ADDLINE
BLOWUP
PLOT
DELETE
HELP
COLOR
SAVE
ARROW
NEXT
MOVE
ROTATE
TEXTADD
UNDO
REPTEXT
LCLPLOT
DRAW
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
UNEMPLOYMENT
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO
100
90
88
86
84
T
82
80
81
70
73
68
60
BETTER
PERCENTAGE
WORSE
50
10 I I
40
30
20
11
10
5
4
5
0
B
B
B
NOV.
FEB.
MAY
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
UNEMPLOYMENT
A YEAR FROM NOW
100
90
WILL BE BETTER
++++.
WILL BE WORSE
80
70
60
60
PERCENT
50
49
11 I
45
42
40
44
44
37
4
32
30
31
32
31
27
23
26
20
23
10
12
0
NOV.
F/M
MAT
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV
F/M
1901
1962
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Here are some proposals that have been made that some people think would
significantly help reduce unemployment. For each one please tell me if you
favor or oppose it.
Responses
Don't
Know/
Total Favor Oppose Refused PDI&
Reduce taxes on individual
taxpayers.
100%
68%
27%
6%
+41
Require that imported cars
contain parts made in the
United States.
100%
68
26
6
+42
Have the federal government
finance a jobs program for
the unemployed.
100%
66
29
5
+37
Restrict the number of foreign
cars that can be sold in
the United States.
100%
66
30
3
+36
Delay further federal require-
ments for new safety features
in automobiles.
100%
43
51
5
- 8
Lower the legal minimum wage
for teenagers.
100%
35
61
4
-26
Relax environmental protection
laws.
100%
31
62
7
-31
&PDI: Percentage Difference Index = % "Favor" minus % "Oppose."
- 12 - -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
PROPOSALS TO REDUCE DEFICIT
NO
FAVOR
OPPOSE
OPINION
Reduce proposed increases
59%
37
4
for national defense spending
Cancel July, 1983 tax cut
49%
43
8
13
Reduce rate of increase in
programs that increase annually
43%
52
5
such as Medicare, Medicaid and
Social Security
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
U.S. MILITARY POWER
60
56
54
STRONGER THAN
SOVIETS
-----
42
EQUAL TO SOVIETS
40
40
39
NOT AS STRONG AS
SOVIETS
PERCENT
34
32
14 I I
29
29
27
20
21
17
16
11
10
0
JANUARY
JUNE
SEPTEMBER
NOVEMBER
FEB./MAR.
1976
1980
1980
1981
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Does the Soviet Union have a significant
advantage over U.S. in nuclear weapons?
Does
44%
Does not
43
No opinion
13
Is the Soviet Union increasing its nuclear
strength
Faster than U.S.
50%
Same as U.S.
32
Slower than U.S.
4
No opinion
14
If the U.S. and Soviet Union cannot agree on
limiting nuclear weapons, should NATO...place
Pershing II and cruise missiles in Western
Europe?
Yes
53%
No
25
No opinion
22
- 15 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
DEFENSE SPENDING
100
++++.
TOO MUCH
ABOUT RIGHT
80
TOO LITTLE
60
PERCENT
52
5
45
50
44
16 - I I
46
41
40
3636
36
31
3632
31
30
31
21
22
20
22
18
13
19
11
15
16
12
8
0
1960
1969
1971
1973
1976
1981
MARCH
NOV.
F/M
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
U.S SHOULD FREEZE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION
60
50%
A - ONLY IF SOVIETS FREEZE
40
B - NO U.S. FREEZE AT ALL
17 I I
PERCENT
C - U.S. SHOULD FREEZE ON ITS OWN
D - NO OPINION
25%
20
20%
5%
0
A
B
C
D
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
If there was a sharp disagreement between Congress and
President Reagan about the strength of our military,
would you have more confidence in.
(to be right)
CONGRESS
57%
18 I I
PRESIDENT REAGAN
34
NEITHER
1
NO OPINION
8
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
CONGRESS JOB PERFORMANCE
100
80
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
67
60
PERCENT
52
19 I I
43
43
44
42
40
36
38
39
36
33
34
34
20
18
0
OCT/NOV
JUNE
SEPT
JUNE
NOV
F/M
MAY
JULY
F/M
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
CONGRESS'S FEB/MAR, 1983 JOB PERFORMANCE BY REGION
100
60
58
56
APPROVE
53
52
51
52
50
50
DISAPPROVE
47
40
38
36
36
34
35
35
20 I I
PERCENT
32
31
30
20
10
0
NEW
MID
EAST
WEST
BORDER
DEEP
MOUN- PACIFIC
ENGLAND ATLANTIC NC
NC
SOUTH
SOUTH
TAIN
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Opinion of Congress
Congress is ineffective and not able to deal
with the tough problems like Social Security
and unemployment
37%
Legislation like the jobs bill and the Social
Security commission proposals show that Congress
is aware of these problems and doing everything
they can to resolve them
...
56%
No opinion
...
7%
- 21 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
When there are disagreements between President Reagan and Congress, who
do you trust more -- President Reagan or Congress?
Party ID
Total
Rep.
Ind.
Dem.
Congress
59%
31%
55%
82%
President Reagan
30
60
32
10
No opinion
11
9
13
8
- 22 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
REAGAN JOB PERFORMANCE
100
90
80
++++. APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
70
67
60
55
PERCENT
51
52
50
48
48
49
47
47
+
23 I
40
47
46
46
42
41
41
39
30
20
27
22
10
0
JUNE
NOV.
F/M
HAT
JULY
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
F/M
1961
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1962
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
REAGAN` S FEB./MAR. , 1983 JOB PERFORMANCE BY REGION
100
60
56
54
APPROVE
51
51
50
50
49
DISAPPROVE
48
47
47
46
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
24 I I
PERCENT
30
20
10
0
NEW
MID
EAST
WEST
BORDER
DEEP
MOUN- PACIFIC
ENGLAND ATLANTIC NC
NC
SOUTH
SOUTH
TAIN
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
REAGAN` S POLICIES
HURT
HELPED
100
80
60
40
20
0
80
(4)
WEALTHY PEOPLE (70)
(12)
LARGE CORPORATIONS (69)
(24)
WOMEN (35)
MOST AMERICANS (35)
(45)
(33)
HISPANICS (18)
25 I I
(40)
BLACKS (21)
(43)
UNION MEMBERS (18)
(47)
YOUNG PEOPLE (20)
SENIOR CITIZENS (21)
(54)
WORKING PEOPLE (24)
(58)
(57
FARMERS (20)
(63)
SMALL BUSINESS (18)
(67)
POOR PEOPLE (15)
HURT SOMEWHAT
HELPED/SOMEWHAT
HURT A LOT
HELPED/A LOT
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
Reagan's Policies
All Voters
Group
Helped Hurt
Helped Hurt
Blacks
20
39
4
83
-44
Senior citizens
21
54
27
38
+16
Women
35
24
35
26
- 2
Union members
18
43
13
54
-11
Hispanics
18
34
20
45
-11
Young people
20
47
16
56
- 9
- 26 - -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
PARTY ISSUE HANDLING
REP.
DEM.
OTHER/
PARTY
PARTY
NO OPINION
Inflation
53%
33%
14%
Spending
52
33
15
Deficit
47
32
21
Taxes
48
37
15
27
Peace
35
41
24
Nuclear arms
28
48
24
Environment
22
56
22
Unemployment
25
60
15
Helping elderly/retired
18
69
13
Helping poor/needy
16
71
13
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
REPUBLICAN MARGIN OVER DEMOCRATS ON
ECONOMIC ISSUE HANDLING
60
50
40
30
20
28 I
REPUBLICAN MARGINS
10
0
10
-20
SPENDING
-30
INFLATION
TAXES
-40
UNEMPLOYMENT
-50
DEFICIT
-60
OCT/NOV
JUNE
SEPT
JUNE
NOV
F/M
MAT
JULY
SEP
OCT
NOV
F/M
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
REPUBLICAN MARGIN OVER DEMOCRATS ON
NON-ECONOMIC ISSUE HANDLING
60
50
Thru
PEACE
ARMS RACE
40
ELDERLY
30
ENVIRONMENT
20
REPUBLICAN MARGINS
10
0
29
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
OCT/NOV
JUNE
SEPT
JUNE
NOV
F/M
MAY
JULT
SEP
OCT
NOV
F/M
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
FEBRUARY/MARCH, 1983
VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
100
80
POPE JOHN 74
70
GLENN 59
R. REAGAN 57
CARTER 49
60
BUSH 56
ANDERSON 49
01 NEILL 55
STOCKMAN 45
50
FORD 55
HELMS 42
WALLACE 40
40
MONDALE 55
DOLE 52
FONDA 39
30
VOLKER 52
GORSUCH 36
WATT 35
KENNEDY 49
20
NIXON 34
10
0
VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE
- 30 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
FEBRUARY/MARCH, 1983
VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
100
80
70
60
DEM. PARTY 61
REP. PARTY 54
CONGRESS 61
BIG BUSINESS 48
50
F. RESERVE 55
UNIONS 47
PACS 42
40
30
20
10
0
VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE
- 31 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
VOTER SEGMENTATION
LOW END
19%
BLACKS
10%
JEWS
2%
HISPANICS
5%
MIDDLE CLASS
30%
HIGH INCOME
24%
INTELLIGENTIA
10%
- 32 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
VOTER SEGMENTATION
7.8
7.4
I
D
R
3.8
2.4
,
&
7.2
a
9.9
D
LOW END
BLACKS
JEWS
2%
HISPANICS
5%
MIDDLE CLASS
I
18.5
7.2
R
HIGH INCOME
INTELLIGENTIA
11.0
\
R
3.0
D
5.8
4.2
2.8
D
I
4
R
college
- 33 -
MARKET OPINION RESEARCH
M
VOTER SEGMENTATION
10.6
2.5
D
I
7
5.9
RI
R
08
8.9
s
LOW END
1.47
BLACKS
a
JEWS
2%
MIDDLE CLASS
HISPANICS
5%
3.0
HIGH INCOME
12.2
R
128
INTELLI GENTIA
at
2.9
q.
:
8.9
D
1.1
D
4.5
I
R
- 34 -