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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (3)
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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (3)
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Records of the White House Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Reagan Administration)
Michael Deaver's Political Files
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files
Folder Title: Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (3)
Box: 66
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
Decision/Making/Information ®
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Paul Laxalt
Frank J. Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 11, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Economic Expectations
Perceptions of the economy's past performance continue to improve,
while anticipation for the future took a slight downward turn in
June. In general, the numbers remained fairly stable in June, with
only slight changes in sentiments about the various economic winds
affecting the respondents lives.
In particular, Americans overwhelmingly feel that, when chosing
between inflation and unemployment, unemployment is perceived as
the greater national menace; however, when asked which of the two
was a bigger problem for the family, they reversed their previous
sentiments and suggest inflation as more detrimental to themselves
and their families. This split greatly helped the Thatcher
campaign in England last month.
Current responses are:
Compared to a year ago, do you think
(has/have)
gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed the same?
Gotten
Gotten
Stayed
No
Better
Worse
The Same
Opinion
The national economy
45%
25%
29%
1%
Inflation
40
32
27
1
Unemployment
28
47
24
1
Interest rates
63
20
14
3
Decision/Making/Information
Economic Expectations
July 11, 1983
Page Two
Thinking about a year from now, do you think
will
get better, get worse or stay about the same as (it
is/they are) now?
Get
Get
Stay
No
Better
Worse
The Same
Opinion
The national economy
52%
14%
31%
3%
Inflation
38
27
32
3
Unemployment
54
19
25
2
Interest rates
39
22
35
4
The National Economy
Opinions about the economy's past performance continue rising, with
45% of the public thinking that the economy has gotten better (up
one percent) and 25% feeling that it has gotten worse (down 3%).
Since January of 1983, perceptions of improvement under Reagan have
risen from a low 19% -- an increase of 26%, or just over a quarter
of the electorate have become more optimistic about the performance
of the economy. On the other hand, expectations slipped slightly
in June to the levels expressed in early April. Starting in March,
a majority of the people -- between 52% and 56% -- have felt that
the economy will continue to recover; another one-third feel that
it will stay about the same, and a relatively small group (14%)
actually feel that things will get worse.
Among key groups, the signals are somewhat mixed. Those most
optimistic about the past and future performance of the economy
tend to be more upscale higher-income voters -- base-Républicans
and senior citizens. Blue-collar workers, independents, and even
small business owners express lower overall optimism about the
economy. Women tend to be much more negative than men about past
performance and more status quo oriented towards the future. In
both cases, the gap ranges from 11% to 17%.
Whereas most of the key groups expressed greater increases in the
previous performance of the economy, Farm Belt State residents are
more critical of past performance, but 54% (up 4 percentage points)
feel that the economy will "get better" in the future.
Inflation
Only 38% (down 4%) of the nation feels that inflation will get
better in the next year. Another one-third think that it will
remain about the same, and 27% think that it is going to get worse.
Decision/Making/Information
Economic Expectations
July 11, 1983
Page Three
After climbing to 46% of the populace in March, optimism has
gradually declined to the current 38%. Perceptions of the past
year have remained fairly stable over the past few months -- around
40% "gotten better". Essentially, both past and future perceptions
continue to run parallel to each other.
There appears to be a degree of uncertainty as to what exactly has
been done to reduce inflation and how the inflation will change
over the coming year.
Among target groups, opinions remain basically unchanged, with the
exception of senior citizens, who increased from 36% to 43% on
"gotten better", and from 36% to 46% on "get better" in the future.
Unemployment
Although the unemployment rate has continued to drop, evaluation of
the unemployment remains -- albeit improved -- fairly negative.
From a low of 4% in January, the percent of the country who feel
that unemployment has "gotten better" has risen to 28% (up 1
percentage point in June). Conversely, expectations remain very
high, with 54% of the nation suggesting that they think
unemployment will "get better". This is a slight drop-off from the
May figures, but has nonetheless remained fairly stable between 51%
and 58% since January. Just under one out of five (19%) Americans
think that the unemployment situation will deteriorate, with the
remaining one-quarter (25%) expecting more of the same.
The most optimistic groups are base Republicans, Farm Belt State
residents, the more affluent, and men. Farm Belt residents exhibit
a large gain in their evaluation of unemployment now compared with
a year ago -- 28% "gotten better" in May, 46% now. Senior
citizens, as with the other economic measures, are suggesting
greater confidence in the economic recovery (44% "get better" in
May compared with 65% in June). Far less enthusiasm, however, is
found among blue-collar occupations, where expectations for future
unemployment reductions dropped 11 percentage points to 47%.
Women continue to lag behind men with about a ten percent
difference between themselves and men -- women exhibiting higher
negativism in general.
Interest Rates
Of the four components of the national economy, American's are most
sanguine in key economic evaluation of interest rates over the last
year, and not without justification. However, their expectations
Decision/Making/Information
Economic Expectations
July 11, 1983
Page Four
may be moderated by the concern that budget deficits will compete
with the private sector, putting pressure on the amount of
available money and force up interest rates. As a result, a
shrinking 39% (down from 45% in January) think that interest rates
will continue to decline; another 35% think that they will remain
where they currently are (consistent over the past six months),
while 22% (up 1 percentage point) think that they will increase.
The June results are nearly identical to those obtained in May.
Again, the gap between men and women remains about 10%, with women
one of the few groups to increase in pessimism since June. Key
coalitions exhibiting the greatest gain in enthusiasm are Farm Belt
State residents (up 13% on "gotten better", and 7% on "get better"
in the next year). Independents are more uncertain, with an
increase of 9% to 39% "stay the same".
The greatest increase in skepticism is expressed by white Baptists
-- from 15% to 25% "get worse".
More Serious Problem: Rising Prices or Unemployment
Personally, people are more afraid of inflation; as a nation, they
are more concerned about unemployment.
Which do you think is a more serious economic problem
-- rising prices or high unemployment?
Equally
Rising
High
Serious
No:
Prices
Unemply
(VIntd)
Opinion
For the country
25%
67%
7%
1%
For you and your family 56
28
5
1
The same question was also asked in the United Kingdom with very
similar results: 30% felt that inflation was the biggest national
threat, 61% mentioned unemployment; for the family, 56% said
inflation, with 36% suggesting that unemployment was the more
important problem.
For the Country
Over two-thirds of the sample pick unemployment as the more serious
problem facing the nation. This pattern varies little among the
Decision/Making/Information
Economic Expectations
July 11, 1983
Page Five
key target subgroups. Farm Belt State residents are particularly
intense in picking unemployment (76%), while senior citizens (40%)
and white Baptists (33%) are slightly more likely to pick rising
prices than are the other groups -- not surprising with many senior
citizens on fixed incomes. The question does not tend to polarize:
postgraduates and those with less than a high school education are
equally as likely to pick rising prices; the same is true for
various income levels. The gap between men and women, though still
present, is not as sharp -- about 5%.
For You and Your Family
Opinions are quite different when they are considering themselves
and families. There are few cases of extreme variance from the
mainstream sentiments. Senior citizens and retired Americans are
the most likely to choose inflation; conversely, voters 18 to 24 --
those just getting started in the job market -- and minorities are
the most likely to suggest that unemployment is more of a concern.
Unlike sentiments about which of the two is more important to the
nation, the question of unemployment versus inflation tends to
split more along socioeconomic lines, as well as ideology and party
affiliation. However, without exception, a majority of all
demographic subgroups think that inflation is more of a problem for
themselves and their families.
Decision/Making/Information
Status of the National Economy
"Compared to a year ago, do you think the national economy has gotten better,
gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Thinking about a year from now, do you
think the national economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
13-14
15-22
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
11
12
20
*
19
39
Gotten worse
56
51
51
*
54
30
Stayed the same
31
33
28
*
26
30
No opinion
2
4
1
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
48
43
46
*
47
56
Get worse
25
20
22
*
20
15
Stay the same
23
34
29
*
31
26
No opinion
4
3
3
*
2
3
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
39
*
44
45
Gotten worse
32
*
28
25
Stayed the same
28
*
27
29
No opinion
1
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
53
*
56
52
Get worse
13
*
14
14
Stay the same
31
*
28
31
No opinion
3
*
2
3
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making, Information
The National Economy
"Compared to a year ago, do you think the national economy gotten better,
gotten worse, or stayed about the same?"
Gotten Better
Gotten Worse
Stayed the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
45
25
29
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
69
9
21
Small Business
46
25
28
Farm Belt states
41
16
42
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
41
27
31
Senior citizens
47
26
27
Women
37
30
32
Catholics
43
26
30
Independents/Leaners
48
24
26
White Baptists
47
21
31
"Thinking about a year from now, do you think the national economy will get
better, get worse, or be about the same as it is now?"
Get Better
Get Worse
Stay the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
52
14
31
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
72
4
20
Small Business
53
16
28
Farm Belt states
54
11
34
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
47
17
34
Senior citizens
60
13
23
Women
47
16
35
Catholics
49
13
33
Independents/Leaners
49
16
32
White Baptists
57
15
27
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Status of Inflation
"Compared to a year ago, do you think inflation has gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same? Thinking about a year from now, do you think
inflation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?"
Feb
June
Aug
Jan
Jan
Mar
13-14
15-22
25-29
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
23
26
29
*
33
43
Gotten worse
50
42
43
*
42
26
Stayed the same
26
31
28
*
24
30
No opinion
1
1
0
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
36
45
39
*
35
46
Get worse
31
21
25
*
25
18
Stay the same
29
31
34
*
37
34
No opinion
4
3
2
*
2
2
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
41
*
41
40
Gotten worse
30
*
34
32
Stayed the same
29
*
24
27
No opinion
0
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
41
*
42
38
Get worse
22
*
22
27
Stay the same
35
*
34
32
No opinion
2
*
2
3
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Inflation
"Compared to a year ago, do you think inflation has gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same?"
Gotten Better
Gotten Worse
Stayed the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
40
32
27
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
60
16
23
Small Business
43
33
23
Farm Belt states
42
24
34
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
35
38
27
Senior citizens
43
29
29
Women
32
36
32
Catholics
39
33
28
Independents/Leaners
44
30
25
White Baptists
41
31
28
"Thinking about a year from now, do you think inflation will get better, get
worse, or be about the same as it is now?"
Get Better
Get Worse
Stay the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
38
27
32
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
47
17
35
Small Business
36
29
32
Farm Belt states
39
35
24
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
32
28
38
Senior citizens
46
21
30
Women
39
28
30
Catholics
38
27
34
Independents/Leaners
36
29
33
White Baptists
45
26
27
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Informati
Status of Unemployment
"Compared to a year ago, do you think unemployment has gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same? Thinking about a year from now, do you think
unemployment will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?"
Feb
Jun
Aug
Jan
Jan
Mar
13-14
15-22
25-29
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
4
4
4
*
4
17
Gotten worse
80
83
82
*
86
61
Stayed the same
14
12
13
*
9
21
No opinion
2
1
1
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
40
43
44
*
51
58
Get worse
35
30
29
*
24
16
Stay the same
21
24
26
*
23
24
No opinion
4
2
1
*
2
2
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
18
*
27
28
Gotten worse
57
*
48
47
Stayed the same
24
*
24
24
No opinion
1
*
1
1
Now/Future
Get better
57
*
57
54
Get worse
18
*
16
19
Stay the same
23
*
25
25
No opinion
2
*
2
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Unemployment
"Compared to a year ago, do you think unemployment has gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same?"
Gotten Better
Gotten Worse
Stayed the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
28
47
25
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
45
26
27
Small Business
34
47
18
Farm Belt states
46
37
17
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
26
49
25
Senior citizens
30
41
28
Women
24
52
24
Catholics
25
51
24
Independents/Leaners
29
46
25
White Baptists
33
41
26
"Thinking about a year from now, do you think unemployment will get better, get
worse, or be about the same as it is now?"
Get Better
Get Worse
Stay the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
54
19
25
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
70
8
21
Small Business
55
22
21
Farm Belt states
59
19
21
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
47
20
31
Senior citizens
65
14
20
Women
50
22
26
Catholics
52
22
24
Independents/Leaners
51
21
26
White Baptists
57
17
24
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Status of Interest Rates
"Compared to a year ago, do you think the interest rates have gotten better,
gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Thinking about a year from now, do you
think the interest rates will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?"
Feb
Jun
Aug
Jan
Jan
Mar
25-6
15-22
25-29
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
17
19
51
*
60
65
Gotten worse
51
37
29
*
24
17
Stayed the same
29
42
18
*
14
14
No opinion
3
2
2
*
2
4
Now/Future
Get better
41
45
49
*
43
45
Get worse
22
18
17
*
19
16
Stay the same
34
34
31
*
34
36
No opinion
3
3
3
*
3
3
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
Year Ago/Now
Gotten better
66
*
64
63
Gotten worse
20
*
21
20
Stayed the same
11
*
14
14
No opinion
3
*
1
3
Now/Future
Get better
44
*
40
39
Get worse
19
*
21
22
Stay the same
34
*
35
35
No opinion
3
*
4
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Interest Rates
"Compared to a year ago, do you think interest rates have gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same?"
Gotten Better
Gotten Worse
Stayed the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
63
20
14
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
79
12
8
Small Business
68
17
13
Farm Belt states
72
12
12
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
64
20
15
Senior citizens
56
16
19
Women
57
22
16
Catholics
64
23
11
Independents/Leaners
65
18
15
White Baptists
57
23
18
"Thinking about a year from now, do you think interest rates will get better,
get worse, or be about the same as it is now?"
Get Better
Get Worse
Stay the Same
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
39
22
35
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
49
13
35
Small Business
34
25
38
Farm Belt states
45
20
32
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
35
26
36
Senior citizens
45
11
33
Women
39
20
35
Catholics
41
19
36
Independents/Leaners
31
26
39
White Baptists
42
25
28
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
More Serious Problem for the Country:
Inflation or Unemployment
"If you had to choose, which do you think is a more serious economic problem
for the country -- rising prices ... or ... high unemployment?"
Equally
Rising
High
Serious
Prices
Unemployment
(Vol.)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
25
67
7
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
31
62
6
Small business
25
67
7
Farm Belt states
19
76
5
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
22
71
6
Senior citizens
40
53
6
Women
23
69
8
Catholics
23
66
10
Independents/Leaners
25
65
9
White Baptists
33
61
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
More Serious Problem Facing the Family:
Inflation or Unemployment
"If you had to choose, which do you think is a more serious economic problem
for you and your family life -- rising prices ...
or
...
high unemployment?"
Equally
Rising
High
Serious
Prices
Unemp loyment
(Vol.)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
66
28
5
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
74
23
1
Small business
66
27
5
Farm Belt states
72
24
3
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
65
30
4
Senior citizens
74
14
7
Women
64
29
6
Catholics
66
27
5
Independents/Leaners
56
28
5
White Baptists
71
25
3
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making Information ®
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 8, 1983: Reported orally June 28, 1983
(RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Tax Cap
Nearly five out of ten Americans (48%) oppose Congress' proposed
$700 tax cap on a personal income tax refund. Respondents were
asked whether they favor or oppose the following statement:
This July Americans will get a tax cut. Some people
believe that no one should get a tax refund that's
greater than $700; others disagree. How about you, do
you favor or oppose a tax cap on personal income tax
refunds?
Favor
45%
Oppose
48
No opinion
7
(IF "OPPOSED," ASK:)
Suppose you heard that a family of four with an income of
$100,000 a year would receive $2,384 a year in tax cuts,
while a family of four earning $30,000 a year would
receive a cut of $325. Would you still oppose or would
you favor putting a cap on tax refunds?
Still oppose
61%
Favor
33
Don't know
6
Thus while slightly more Americans are opposed to the cap, that
slim margin is swamped by the argument made by the Democrats.
Decision/Making/Information
Tax Cap
July 8, 1983
Page Two
Not surprisingly, highest opposition is generated from upper-income
respondents (56%). Conversely, subgroups having a majority favor-
ing the tax cap include blacks (56%) and Democrats (51%).
Even after actual dollar amounts were explained to those who oppose
the tax cap, nearly two-thirds say they still oppose it while 33%
changed their answer to favor and 6% don't know.
Interestingly, men are more likely to continue to oppose the cap
(67%) than women (57%). Other subgroup differences emerge among
non-union members (65%) versus union members (51%), suburban
residents (70%) versus rural residents (52%), and high income (72%)
versus low income (59%).
What is a Middle-Class Income?
In order to determine which income level the phrase "middle class"
encompasses respondents were asked:
Now, just your best guess, how much money do you think
the average middle-class American family earns in a year?
Under $4,999
1%
$ 5,000 - $ 9,999
4
$10,000 - $14,999
9
$15,000 - $19,999
16
$20,000 - $29,999
36
$30,000 - $39,999
24
$40,000 - $49,999
6
$50,000 - $54,999
2
$55,000 or more
2
One out of two respondents answered that middle class is between
$15,000 and $30,000 a year, while another fourth said $30,000-
$40,000. Only 14% answered less than $5,000 and 10% said over
$40,000.
Upper-income and better-educated respondents are directionally more
likely to say a higher income bracket while the less-educated and
lower-income respondents tend to report a lower income bracket for
the middle class.
Tax Cap Drawn Middle-Class: Tax Payers
Interestingly, even though respondents believe that the middle
class is somewhere below $30,000, a level which would not even be
Decision/Making/Information
Tax Cap
July 8, 1983
Page Three
affected by a $700 tax cap, they overwhelmingly agree with a
statement President Reagan made about the tax cap and the middle
class. Specifically, respondents were asked:
Now I'm going to read you a list of statements that other
people have made. Each statement represents a commonly-
held opinion, and there are no right or wrong answers.
You will probably disagee with some items and agree with
others. Would you please tell me, for each statement,
whether you agree or disagree. Capping the third year of
the tax cut won't soak the rich, but it will drown mil-
lions of taxpayers in the middle class.
Agree
65%
Disagree
27
No opinion
8
Two-thirds agreed with the President on this statement while
slightly more than one-fourth (27%) agreed and 8% had no opinion.
Highest agreement can be found among blacks (86%), Democrats (77%),
non-married women (76%), lower-income respondents (71%) and
liberals (72%). Respondents with advanced degrees are the only
subgroup having more members disagreeing with this statement than
agreeing.
Decision/Making/Information
The Tax Cap: Favor or Oppose
"This July Americans will get a tax cut. Some people believe that no one
should get a tax refund that's greater than $700; others disagree. How about
you, do you favor or oppose a tax cap on personal income tax?"
Favor
Oppose
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
45
49
7
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
43
52
5
Small business
42
52
5
Farm Belt states
41
53
7
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
44
52
4
Senior citizens
49
40
11
Women
43
48
9
Catholics
45
49
6
Independents/Leaners
39
53
7
White Baptists
42
50
9
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
The Tax Cap: Favor or Oppose/Push
"Suppose you heard that a family of four with an income of $100,000 a year
would receive a $2,384 a year in tax cuts, while a family of four earning
$30,000 a year would receive a cut of $325. Would you still oppose or would
you favor putting a cap on tax refunds?"
Yes/
No/
No
Still Oppose
Now Favor
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
62
33
6
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
67
26
7
Small business
58
37
5
Farm Belt states
54
43
3
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
58
36
6
Senior citizens
54
32
14
Women
57
37
7
Catholics
59
39
2
Independents/Leaners
63
32
5
White Baptists
69
27
3
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
The Tax Cap: Drown the Middle Class
Now I'm going to read you a list of statements that other people have made.
Each statement represents a commonly-held opinion, and there are no right or
wrong answers. You will probably disagree with some items and agree with
others. Would you please tell me, for each statement, whether you ... agree
... or disagree?
"Capping the third year of the tax cut won't soak the rich, but it will
drown millions of taxpayers in the middle class."
Agree
Disagree
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
65
27
8
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
47
43
10
Small business
66
29
5
Farm Belt states
70
21
9
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
70
25
5
Senior citizens
56
30
14
Women
71
20
9
Catholics
69
26
5
Independents/Leaners
65
25
10
White Baptists
69
24
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Edwin Meese III
James A. Baker, III
Michael K. Deaver
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 8, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Nuclear Arms Control
American attitudes are fairly evenly split on President Reagan's
nuclear arms control job rating. Currently, five out of ten (49%)
Americans approve of Reagan's treatment of arms control, four in
ten (43%) disapprove and 8% have no opinion.
A significant gender gap emerges on the issue of arms control with
59% of the men surveyed approving of Reagan and only 40% of the
women approving. Marital status also seems to be a factor in
perceptions of arms control. Married men give the highest approval
scores (64%) while non-married women give the lowest (37%).
Other demographic differences exist along partisan lines. As is to
be expected, base Republicans give high support (69%) while
Democrats and liberals give low support (36%/37%). Blacks and
residents of New England also give low approval ratings (-24%/33%).
In order to test whether Americans correctly understand President
Reagan's position on arms control, respondents were asked the
following question:
From what you've heard and read, which of the following
two positions best describes the way Ronald Reagan feels
about nuclear weapons?
POSITION A
Ronald Reagan believes that we must build as many nuclear
weapons as quickly as we can so that we won't be pushed
around by the Russians any more.
Decision/Making/Information
Nuclear Arms Control
July 8, 1983
Page Two
POSITION B
Ronald Reagan believes that once the Soviets and the
United States have about the same strength in nuclear
weapons then nuclear weapons must be reduced dramatically
to assure lasting peace and security.
Position A
39%
Position B
56
Neither/No opinion
5
Most Americans (56%) believe that Reagan will reduce the number of
United States nuclear weapons once it has reached the same level as
the Soviet Union. Four in ten (39%) continue to believe that
Reagan is quickly building up the level of nuclear weapons to
provide leverage for the U.S. and 5% have no opinion.
These figures are similar to those given in the beginning of the
year. In March and April, however, responses on this question were
reversed. At that time more people believed that President Reagan
was trying to increase the level of nuclear weapons in order to
keep the Russians from pushing the United States around.
As with the job rating, male and female subgroups have divergent
opinions on President Reagan's position on nuclear arms control.
Males are much more likely to say Position B (62%) than females
(50%). Base Republicans (63%) are also more likely to say Position
B than Democrats (50%).
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Arms Control
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
49
43
8
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
69
25
6
Small business
56
27
7
Farm Belt states
45
49
7
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
53
40
7
Senior citizens
48
39
13
Women
40
48
11
Catholics
45
49
6
Independents/Leaners
49
42
8
White Baptists
52
39
9
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan on Nuclear Arms
"From what you've heard and read, which of the following two positions best
describes the way Ronald Reagan feels about nuclear weapons?"
POSITION A
Ronald Reagan believes that we must build as many nuclear weapons as
quickly as we can so that we won't be pushed around by the Russians any
more.
POSITION B
Ronald Reagan believes that once the Soviets and the United States have
about the same strength in nuclear weapons then nuclear weapons must be
reduced dramatically to assure lasting peace and security.
Nov
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
23-24
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Position A
39
*
35
56
54
*
Position B
51
*
58
36
40
*
Neither
2
*
3
3
2
*
No opinion
8
*
4
5
4
*
May
Jun
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
Position A
*
39
Position B
*
56
Neither
*
3
No opinion
*
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Position on Nuclear Weapons: Reagan
"Now, from what you've heard and read, which of these two positions best
describes the way Ronald Reagan feels about nuclear weapons?"
POSITION A
Ronald Reagan believes that we must build as many nuclear weapons as
quickly as we can so that we won't be pushed around by the Russians any
more.
POSITION B
Ronald Reagan believes that once the Soviets and the United States have
about the same strength in nuclear weapons then nuclear weapons must be
reduced dramatically to assure lasting peace and security.
Neither/
Position A
Position B
No Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
39
56
5
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
33
63
4
Small Business
34
62
3
Farm Belt states
39
54
7
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
36
61
3
Senior citizens
32
56
12
Women
43
50
7
Catholics
41
55
4
Independents/Leaners
39
55
6
White Baptists
37
57
6
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Paul Laxalt
Frank J. Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 8, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Presidential Performance
The President's general job approval rating remained consistent
with the ratings of June; our reading note only a slight 2% drop in
overall approval (53% approve/41% disapprove).
Specific ratings on the economy, unemployment, social security, and
inflation show marginal improvement, with the biggest upswing
coming in the assessment of Reagan's handling of foreign policy (6%
improvement since May).
Respondent's were asked:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is
handling
?
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Smwht
No
Apprv
Apprv
Disap
Disap
Opin
His job as President
23%
30%
18%
23%
6%
The economy
24
28
20
27
1
Foreign affairs
17
36
19
21
7
Unemployment
13
23
19
43
2
Inflation
27
26
16
29
2
Social security
16
25
18
37
4
General
Since March of this year, Reagan's job approval has hovered between
50% and 55%. After a rather sharp collapse in late summar and
fall, the President's rating went against historical standards for
the third year, first term and picked up ten points. Now his
current job rating is nearly identical to what it was at this same
time last year.
Decision/Making/Information
Presidential Performance
July 8, 1983
Page Two
As has been the case in previous months, Reagan retains high job
approval ratings from his base support groups: Republicans (88%),
upper-income voters (75%) and conservatives (62%). His approval
rating has dropped among voters 45 to 64, but among senior citizens
his approval rating rose to 60%. Geographically, his support
remains strong in the Mountain States (61% approve) and has
improved in the Farm Belt region (56% approve).
Not surprisingly, his lowest job approval is found among the same
groups as in previous months, with blacks expressing the highest
disapproval (78%), followed by Democrats, the lesser educated,
self-identified liberals, lower-income voters and union members.
Blue-collar workers, in general, approve of the job Reagan is doing
(55%), but specifically, among blue-collar workers who are also
union members, his approval rating drops to 45% approve.
The gender gap is particularly evident between married men (64%
approve) and nonmarried women (44% approve) -- a 20-percentage
point difference. In general, males give the President a 61%
approval rating, while women give him only 47%.
Economy
Perhaps fueled by the good news regarding economic growth in the
first quarter of 1983 and the projected adjusted growth rate for
the rest of the year -- between 5% and 6% -- assessment of Reagan's
handling of the economy is continuing its upward climb that started
in January of this year.
In this latest survey, 52% approve of what Reagan is doing -- up
from 50% in May. Private economists added a further positive note
suggesting that second quarter growth estimates also reflect a
"broadening" of the recovery. This upswing is reflected throughout
all elements of the nation. His biggest supporters are again base
Republicans, the more affluent, conservatives, and men. Another
particularly good sign is the continued positive perceptions of the
people most likely to be aware of the recovery and Reagan's roll in
it -- those with at least a college degree.
Negative sentiments are expressed by the less affluent, Democrats,
liberals, less educated, blacks, and women; however, even among
these somewhat disaffected groups, there is an increase in Reagan's
approval rating. The gap between men and women though, has
increased from 15% in May, to 19%. Women's sentiments in general
did not improve, but those for non-marrried women, however,
improved 8 percentage points.
Decision/Making/Information
Presidential Performance
July 8, 1983
Page Three
Foreign Affairs
For the past six months, approval of the President's handling of
United States foreign affairs has remained stable between 44% and
47% of the populace.
In June, however, his largest net job rating improvement is the 6
percentage point increase in his approval rating -- 47% in May to
53% now -- of his handling of foreign affairs. Attitudes are most
positive among the more upscale voters; base Republicans, the
affluent, and those with some college education or more --
essentially the same groups who have consistently given Reagan good
appraisals over the past few months.
Among the swing constituencies, there were stronger positive
increases among Farm Belt residents (plus 11% to 51% approve),
blue-collar workers (plus 8% to 56% approve), and senior citizens
(plus 11% to 47% approve), with the smallest net gain (plus 4% to
46% approve) coming among women. Unaffiliated voters express lower
approval in June (42% approve) than in May (46% approve). Also, in
May the gap between men and women was 10%; now, the gap has
increased to 14%, with non-married women the most critical.
Inflation
Approval of Reagan's handling of inflation climbed for the second
month in a row. Although the inflation rate was slightly higher in
the first quarter of this year, the Commerce Department's estimate
for the current quarter is approximately 4% -- well below the
double digit days of Jimmy Carter. These numbers are not failing
to impress the American people. As with the economy, the overall
impression of Reagan's control of inflation continues to improve
essentially among most of our key subgroups.
Again, his highest marks are given by those most likely to be aware
of moderation in the inflation rate: college graduates (72%),
postgraduates (72%), and and those with some college (65%). Other
groups giving high approval marks are Republicans (80%),
upper-income voters (76%) and men (65%). Senior citizens -- those
most likely on fixed incomes -- have increased their approval from
41% in May to 60% now. Consistent with the other job ratings
tested, women are much more negative (44% approve) than men (65%
approve). The perception of men has improved 8 percentage points
compared with only a 2% increase for women.
Decision/Making/Information
Presidential Performance
July 8, 1983
Page Four
Unemployment
Although the unemployment rate is dropping slowly and inspite of
predictions for high unemployment through at least next year,
Reagan's job approval of his handling of unemployment continues to
rise, but also slowly. Starting with a low of 26% in January 1983,
his approval rating has climbed ten percentage points to 36%. This
is still a relatively weak assessment of his performance on this
issue with nearly two-thirds (62%) disapproving, but the trends are
positive.
In terms of absolute gains in his approval rating, there is an
across-the-board increase since May among several groups. Only a
few segments give him majority approval; among those groups are
respondents of college and postgraduate education.
The gap between men and women is not pronounced on the issue of
unemployment. Blue-collar workers (34% approve) and Farm Belt
residents (36%) are more alienated towards Reagan on economic
issues like unemployment than they are generally with other
concerns.
Social Security
Reagan's job rating on the social security issue dropped slightly
this month, with disapproval rising to 55%. As in previous months,
an interesting phenomenon continues to manifest itself: those
individuals most directly affected by any reductions or freezes in
social security benefits gave the President above average approval
for his work on the program: senior citizens (59% approve) and 55
to 64 year olds (44% approve).
As with unemployment, approval among any one particular segment of
society seldom reaches 50%. The strongest supporters of the
President's work are Republicans, senior citizens, the affluent,
and college graduates. There exists a significant difference
between urban dwellers (34%) and their counterparts in the suburbs
(46%) those in the rural areas (44%).
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- General
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as
President?"
Feb
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jun
Sep
20-22
12-14
18-28
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Approve
70
67
60
60
52
51
Disapprove
14
27
33
33
40
43
No opinion
16
6
7
7
8
6
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
46
44
50
50
50
55
Disapprove
49
50
46
46
44
41
No opinion
5
5
4
4
6
4
Jun
25-27
1983
Approve
53
Disapprove
41
No opinion
6
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
General
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No Opinion
60
60
54
53
51
50
50
40
41
44
40
42
33
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
7
7
6
6
6
0
1
1
2
2
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Intensity of Response
Percent
100
Strongly
Approve
90
Strongly
Disapprove
80
70
60
50
40
30
30
27
23
24
20
23
23
20
19
Decision/Making/Informati
10
0
1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 1 2 3 4 4 5 6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: General
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as
President? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat
(approve/disapprove)?"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
23
40
18
23
6
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
50
35
7
4
4
Small Business
24
37
15
18
6
Farm Belt states
22
34
17
14
13
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
21
34
21
18
6
Senior citizens
35
25
13
25
2
Women
20
27
21
26
6
Catholics
18
33
17
24
8
Independents/Leaners
20
37
18
19
6
White Baptists
23
35
17
21
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Economy
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Mar
Jul
Oct
Jan
Jun
Sep
6-9
16-18
5-14
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Approve
63
61
66
57
45
44
Disapprove
23
33
28
40
51
52
No opinion
14
6
5
3
4
4
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
38
40
44
47
49
50
Disapprove
58
57
54
52
49
48
No opinion
4
3
2
1
2
2
Jun
25-27
1983
Approve
52
Disapprove
47
No opinion
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
The economy
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No Opinion
60
58
57
50
52
50
49
48
47
40
40
46
38
30
20
Decision/Making/informati
10
4
4
3
4
1
0
1
2
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Economy
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
24
28
20
27
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
48
35
9
8
Small Business
25
32
19
23
Farm Belt states
19
38
18
23
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
19
31
21
28
Senior citizens
34
21
21
21
Women
18
25
22
32
Catholics
21
33
17
29
Independents/Leaners
22
34
19
25
:
White Baptists
23
32
21
24
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Foreign Affairs
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Mar
Jul
Oct
Jan
Jun
Sep
6-9
16-18
5-14
11-19
15-22
23-27
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
Approve
60
56
65
59
56
46
Disapprove
19
27
23
33
34
43
No opinion
21
16
12
8
10
11
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
27-28
27-30
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
46
45
41
44
46
47
Disapprove
44
40
49
48
46
44
No opinion
10
14
10
8
8
9
Jun
25-27
1983
Approve
53
Disapprove
40
No opinion
7
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Foreign Affairs
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No Opinion
60
59
56
53
50
40
40
34
30
33
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
7
10
8
0
1
2
2
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Foreign Affairs
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
17
36
19
21
7
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
32
46
6
8
8
Small Business
20
35
17
21
7
Farm Belt states
23
28
17
25
7
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
14
43
18
20
5
Senior citizens
23
24
16
22
15
Women
12
35
19
25
9
Catholics
12
39
18
24
7
Independents/Leaners
14
36
21
23
6
White Baptists
20
35
17
19
9
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Inflation
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Approve
51
41
43
42
44
49
Disapprove
43
53
52
55
55
48
No opinion
6
6
5
3
3
3
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
47
*
50
53
Disapprove
50
*
47
45
No opinion
3
*
3
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Inflation
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No Opinion
60
57
53
51
49
50
48
45
43
40
38
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
6
5
3
2
0
1
3
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Inflation
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
27
26
16
29
2
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
50
29
6
12
2
Small Business
31
28
12
27
3
Farm Belt states
16
39
21
23
1
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
23
28
15
31
2
Senior citizens
33
27
11
26
3
Women
21
23
19
35
2
Catholics
22
30
17
29
2
Independents/Leaners
28
28
14
28
2
White Baptists
30
22
15
32
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Unemployment
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Jan
Jun
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
11-19
15-22
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
Approve
34
30
30
26
28
31
Disapprove
57
64
63
70
67
65
No opinion
9
6
7
4
5
4
Apr
Apr
May
Jun
7-10
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
1983
33
*
Approve
34
36
63
*
Disapprove
62
62
No opinion
4
*
4
2
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Unemployment
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
70
No Opinion
62
57
60
50
40
36
34
30
26
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
9
4
2
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making Information
Reagan Job Rating: Unemployment
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
13
23
19
43
2
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
27
36
15
18
2
Small Business
14
24
19
42
3
Farm Belt states
8
28
15
47
1
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
12
21
23
41
2
Senior citizens
22
24
13
38
2
Women
10
22
19
48
2
Catholics
13
19
20
47
2
Independents/Leaners
11
25
21
42
1
White Baptists
16
23
24
37
1
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating -- Social Security
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling
?"
Jul
Sep
Jan
Jan
Mar
Apr
16-19
23-27
7-10
27-29
17-21
7-10
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
Approve
40
36
35
35
33
35
Disapprove
52
55
57
58
60
60
No opinion
8
9
8
6
7
5
Apr
May
Jun
27-28
27-30
25-27
1983
1983
1983
Approve
43
42
41
Disapprove
52
51
55
No opinion
5
7
4
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
REAGAN JOB RATING
Social Security
Percent
100
Approve
90
Disapprove
80
70
No Opinion
62
60
55
52
50
41
40
40
29
30
20
Decision/Making/Informati
10
8
9
4
0
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
1
1
3
4
4
5
6
1982
Month
1983
Decision/Making/Information
Reagan Job Rating: Social Security
"Now a little more specifically. I am going to read you a list of issues. For
each, I would like you to tell me whether you strongly approve ... somewhat
approve ... somewhat disapprove ... or strongly disapprove of the way Ronald
Reagan is handling each of these issues:"
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
No
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Aggregate
16
25
18
37
4
Strength Constituencies
Base Republican
30
35
15
18
3
Small Business
12
26
20
36
6
Farm Belt states
6
34
22
35
3
Swing Constituencies
Blue-collar workers
10
25
20
40
5
Senior citizens
37
21
13
28
1
Women
15
22
19
40
4
Catholics
13
24
20
39
4
Independents/Leaners
14
23
20
38
5
White Baptists
16
20
18
41
5
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983
Decision/Making/Information&
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
6803 Poplar Place, Suite 300, McLean, Virginia 22101, (703) 556-0001
TO:
Paul Laxalt
Frank Fahrenkopf
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
July 7, 1983 (RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983)
SUBJECT:
Federal Entitlement Programs
Over three-fourths (78%) of the Americans polled say they have
never heard of federal entitlement programs and those who have are
rarely able to identify these programs.
Now, have you ever heard of the phrase -- "federal
entitlement programs?" (IF YES, ASK:) And from what
you've heard and read, what are "federal entitlement
programs?"
No, never heard of
78%
Social security
4
Medicaid
1
Medicare
1
Food stamps
2
Aid to families with
dependent children
2
Other
11
No opinion
9
The awareness and understanding of federal entitlement programs
correlates directly to education: 85% of those with less than high
school educations have never heard of the programs, while 44% of
those with postgraduate work are unfamiliar with federal
entitlements. These postgraduate respondents name social security
most frequently when asked to describe the program. Differences
among other demographic subgroups are minimal.
Decision/Making/Information
Federal Entitlement Programs
"Now, have you ever heard of the phrase -- 'federal entitlement programs?'"
No, never heard of
78%
Yes, heard of
13
No opinion
9
"And from what you've heard and read, what are 'federal entitlement programs?'"
Social security
4%
Medicaid
1
Medicare
1
Food Stamps
2
Aid to families with
dependent children
2
Other
11
RNC83-7: June 25-27, 1983