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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (7)
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Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (7)
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael: Files
Folder Title: Dick Wirthlin [1983-1984] (7)
Box: 66
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
Thought you might be interested
in this information:
Dec n/Making/Information
R
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
1050 Seventeenth Street N.W.,
Suite 1100
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 822-9010
The Harris Survey
For Release: Monday AM, June 20th, 1983
1983 #49
ISSN 0273-1037
INFLATION IS AMERICANS' TOP CONCERN
put in
By Louis Harris
Rising prices are a more serious problem than high unemployment, according to a
70-25 percent majority of Americans. Although a 58-41 percent majority believes that the rate
of inflation has gone down over the past three years, people still cite inflation as the most
serious economic problem affecting them.
Despite the fact that more than 11 million Americans are out of work, people seem
to be more concerned that an impending economic recovery could bring with it another round
of sharp price increases. When asked which problem is more serious for the country, a
66-27 percent majority thinks that unemployment is more serious than rising prices. But
when talking about their own economic situation, people overwhelmingly say that the threat of
rising inflation worries them most. It seems more people expect to be involved in the
recovery than expect to lose their jobs in the months ahead.
These results may have some far-reaching political implications. Voters who are
more concerned about rising prices than about high unemployment tend to vote Republican.
In this current Harris Survey, taken by telephone among 1,250 adults nationwide between
June 7th and 11th, inflation-concerned voters would vote for Reagan over Mondale, while those
who are more concerned with high unemployment would vote for Mondale over Reagan. The same
pattern prevails in a Reagan-Glenn pairing.
In the recent British elections, a similar phenomenon occurred. Despite a 13 percent
unemployment rate and an inflation rate that was below 10 percent, British voters felt that
for them personally, inflation was a much greater worry than the threat of joblessness.
In the end, the high rate of unemployment did not cost the conservative Thatcher regime to
lose many voters, nor did it keep the Prime Minister from winning a landslide re-election
victory. In the 1984 U.S. presidential election, inflation may turn out to be the dominant
issue, to the benefit of the Republicans.
But this latest Harris Survey also casts some doubts about the American people's
willingness to tolerate various conditions that might accompany a decline in the rate of
inflation.
--By 60-33 percent, a majority simply is not willing to accept a continued
unemployment rate of 10 percent as the price for keeping inflation at 5 percent or 6 percent.
Under traditional conservative economics, one of the consequences of reducing inflation has
been to cause recessions that leave in their wake an unacceptably high rate of unemployment.
--By 54-39 percent, a majority is not willing to accept as a price for
relatively low inflation a rate of interest on borrowing that is well over 10 percent.
Despite evidence that high interest rates have dampened inflation, people obviously feel that
such sustained high rates are simply unacceptable.
--By only 48-47 percent, a plurality does not feel that a long-term 5 percent
or 6 percent rate of inflation is worth paying mortgage rates as high as 12 percent.
There are two conditions that people will accept as a side effect of moderate
inflation:
--A 76-18 percent majority is willing to see wages go up only as productivity
increases, if it means keeping inflation at 5 percent or 6 percent. A 69-28 percent majority
of union members is willing to make such a trade-off between keeping inflation down and
raising wages only as productivity increases.
(over)
THE HARRIS SURVEY
June 20th, 1983
-2-
--By 57-38 percent a majority of Americans would accept a system of wage and
price controls passed by Congress that would not allow increases that are inflationary, if
that were the price to be paid for lower inflation For many years, such controls have been
viewed as an anathema to politicians in Washington. However, advocacy of a standby wage and
price control system just might fit the mood in 1984.
The prevailing sentiment that inflation is a more important concern to Americans
than unemployment might basically give the Republicans an edge on economic issues. However,
if the Democrats were willing to link wage hikes to productivity gains, and also consider
price and wage controls during periods of excessive inflation, they could neutralize the
Republican advantage on the issue.
TABLES
Between June 7th and 11th, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,250 adults
nationwide by telephone:
"Compared to three years ago, do you feel the rate of inflation has gone down a
lot, some, not much, or hardly at all?"
INFLATION RATE TODAY COMPARED TO THREE YEARS AGO
%
A lot
21
Some
37
Not much
14
Hardly at all
27
Not. sure
1
"In order to keep the rate of inflation down to 5% or 6%, would you be willing
to accept (READ EACH ITEM), or not?"
ACCEPTABILITY OF CERTAIN CONDITIONS
TO KEEP INFLATION TO 5% OR 6%
Not
Not
Willing
willing
sure
OKO
(in
%
Wages going up only as productivity increases
TOTAL
76
18
6
Union member
69
28
3
Republican
83
13
4
Democrat
73
22
5
Independent
78
18
4
Congress passing a system of wage and price controls that
would not allow increases that are inflationary
TOTAL
57
38
5
Union member
56
40
4
Republican
52
43
5
Democrat
62
33
5
Independent
53
44
3
The rate of mortgages as high as 12%
47
48
5
A rate of interest on borrowing at well over 10%
39
54
7
A rate of unemployment as high as 10%
33
60
7
(continued)
THE HARRIS SURVEY
June 20th, 1983
-3-
"If you had to choose, which do you think is a more serious economic problem
(READ EACH ITEM) -- rising prices or high unemployment?"
RISING PRICES OR HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT MORE SERIOUS PROBLEM
Equally
Rising
High
serious
Not
prices
unemployment
(vol.)
sure
of
%
010
of
For the country
27
66
6
1
For you and your family
70
25
3
2
METHODOLOGY
This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone with a representative cross section
of adults 18 and over at 1,250 different sampling points within the United States between
June 7th and 11th. Figures for age, sex and race were weighted where necessary to bring them
into line with their actual proportions in the population.
In a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within
plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population
had been polled.
This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on
Public Polls.
(c) 1983
The Chicago Tribune
World Rights Reserved
Tribune Company Syndicate, Inc.
220 E. 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017
832106
file here
Decision/Making/Infmation
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
1050 Seventeenth Street N.W., Suite 1100, Washington, D.C. 20036, (202) 822-9010
TABLES AND CHARTS
FOR PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS
RNC 7: April 18, 1982
RNC 8: May 3, 1982
May 4, 1982
Decision/Making/Informati
RNC7: 4/18/82
POLITICAL CLIMATE
-1-
Number One National Problem
(Rank order by frequency of mention on latest survey)
Study
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
30-
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb 25
Mar
April
12-16
9-15
18-28
5-14
17-26
9-18
Dec 9
13-16
18-22
11-19
Mar 6
20-29
12-18
X
XI
TRI
TRII
TRIII
TRIV
TRV
TRVI
VII
RNC1
RNC4
RNC5
RNC7
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Unemployment
6
6
7
6
8
12
17
13
17
17
23
29
28
Inflation
32
33
30
25
25
26
21
21
22
24
17
17
13
Economy/General
15
16
17
12
16
16
15
19
14
16
10
6
19
High interest rates
2
12
7
9
7
6
5
3
3
5
6
5
5
World peace
4
4
4
7
6
6
6
10
10
5
5
5
9
Government spending
3
3
3
5
3
4
3
5
4
3
5
3
3
Decline in morals
4
3
3
4
5
5
4
3
4
5
5
4
4
Social Security
4
4
6
3
2
3
4
5
3
3
3
3
5
Crime
3
3
3
5
4
3
3
2
2
4
3
2
3
Foreign policy
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
3
3
2
2
3
2
Taxes
3
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
National defense
2
2
2
3
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
Labor unions
4
-
-
-
1
-
1
1
-
-
-
1
-
-2-
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK
GENERALLY SPEAKING, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GOING IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION, OR HAVE THEY PRETTY SERIOUSLY GOTTEN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK?
PERCENT
100
RIGHT
DIRECTION
90
WRONG
TRACK
80
70
NO
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7
E=Eagle: T=Track; R='82 RNC
-3-
Decision/Making/Information
ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESIDENT
-4- -
DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY RONALD REAGAN IS HANDLING:
Strongly
Somewhat
Somewhat
Strongly
Approve
Approve
Disapprove
Disapprove
His job as President
23%
26%
17%
26%
The economy
19
28
18
31
Foreign affairs
17
33
21
18
-5-
REAGAN JOB RATING
(General)
PERCENT
100
APPROVE
90
DISAPPROVE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7
E=Eagle: T=Track; R='82 RNC
Do YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY RONALD REAGAN IS HANDLING HIS JOB AS PRESIDENT?
WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY (APPROVE/DISAPPROVE) OR JUST SOMEWHAT (APPROVE/DISAPPROVE):
-6-
REAGAN JOB RATING
(Economy)
PERCENT
100
APPROVE
90
DISAPPROVE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E4 E5 E6 E7 E9 E10 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 R1 R4 R5 R6 R7
E=Eagle; T=Track; R='82 RNC
I AM GOING TO READ YOU A LIST OF ISSUES. FOR EACH, I WOULD LIKE YOU TO TELL ME
WHETHER YOU STRONGLY APPROVE, SOMEWHAT APPROVE, SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE OR STRONGLY
DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY RONALD REAGAN IS HANDLING EACH OF THESE ISSUES.
-7-
REAGAN JOB RATING
(Foreign Affairs)
PERCENT
100
APPROVE
90
DISAPPROVE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E4
E5
E6
E7
E9
E10
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
R1
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
E=Eagle; T=Track; R=' 82 RNC
I AM GOING TO READ YOU A LIST OF ISSUES. FOR EACH, I WOULD LIKE YOU TO TELL ME
WHETHER YOU STRONGLY APPROVE, SOMEWHAT APPROVE, SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE, OR STRONGLY
DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY RONALD REAGAN IS HANDLING EACH OF THESE ISSUES.
-8-
REAGAN JOB RATING
(REDUCING GOVERNMENT WASTE)
PERCENT
100
APPROVE
90
DISAPPROVE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
ø
R1
R4
R5
R7
STUDY
-9-
"Let's talk for a moment about how you feel both about Ronald Reagan personally
and about his policies. Generally speaking, do you like or dislike Ronald
Reagan personally?"
Percent
Like Personally/Approve of Policies
45
Like Personally/Disapprove of Policies
30
Dislike Personally/Approve of Policies
2
Dislike Personally/Disapprove of Policies
15
No Opinion
8
-10-
Like Most About Reagan
(Rank order by frequency of mention)
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
Sep 9
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
30-
Jan
Feb 25- Mar
Apr
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
18-28
4-14
17-27
9-18
Dec 12
11-19
Mar
6
20-29
12-
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%
Strong leadership capability
15
14
15
24
23
20
20
19
19
20
18
16
14
13
Do a good job
10
11
10
8
10
10
9
10
10
10
9
8
10
9
Appearance/Personality
9
8
10
5
6
4
4
5
6
6
6
8
6
7
Honest/Sincere
10
11
9
7
6
6
5
5
7
9
9
7
5
7
Outspoken/Straightforward
9
8
5
7
5
4
5
4
5
4
4
5
3
4
Stand on government spending
3
3
2
1
6
7
5
6
5
6
6
4
5
4
Stand on economy
4
3
4
3
3
3
5
3
3
3
4
3
3
2
Help the people
4
5
4
4
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
2
1
2
Qualified/Capable
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
Campaign promises
1
1
2
3
3
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
Stand on labor unions
-
-
-
-
4
2
1
2
1
1
1
-
-
1
General positive
4
4
5
3
1
-
3
3
4
4
3
4
3
6
Too soon to judge/Neutral
1
1
1
1
1
5
1
1
1
-
-
-
-
1
No opinion
5
5
5
5
3
4
3
4
5
6
7
9
9
11
Specific positive responses
86
84
83
83
86
77
84
82
80
79
77
72
68
6
Negative
8
10
11
11
10
14
12
13
14
15
16
19
23
20
-11-
Like Least About Reagan
(Rank order by frequency of mention)
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
Sep 9 Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov 30- Jan
Feb 25-
Mar
Apri
1981
1981
1981
1981
1981
18-28
4-14
17-27
9-18
Dec 12
11-19
Mar
6
20-29
12-18
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Stand on cutback in
social programs
4
5
6
4
8
9
9
8
8
7
9
8
7
7
Will not represent the people
4
3
4
3
3
1
4
5
5
5
4
6
6
5
Favors rich
-
2
2
4
3
4
4
4
5
4
5
5
4
4
Stand on aid to the elderly
-
8
6
5
7
8
6
6
5
6
5
3
4
5
Stand on foreign policy
-
2
3
2
3
3
4
5
5
3
5
3
4
3
His age/Health
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
1
2
1
3
Appearance
2
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
Actor
3
3
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
1.
1
2
2
-
Cabinet/Aides
-
2
3
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
2
Stand on labor unions
-
-
-
3
2
1
-
1
1
1
-
-
-
-
General negative
-
-
3
1
2
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
2
3
Too soon to judge/Neutral
8
3
2
2
3
13
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
-
No opinion
11
14
14
13
9
10
10
0
11
14
11
14
13
13
Positive
32
28
26
28
23
18
24
24
21
21
20
18
18
18
Resistance Ratio
40:10 28:10 24:10 25:10 23:10 13:10 20:10 19:10 15:10 14:10 13:10 9:10 8:10 9:10
-12-
How Well Do These Characteristics Describe President Reagan?
(Percentage of people choosing "excellent" or "good")
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
30-
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Feb 25-
Mar
April
April
April 30-
5-14
17-26
9-18
Dec 12
13-16
18-22
11-19
13-14
Mar 6
20-29
1-2
12-18
May 3
TRII
TRIII
TRIV
TRV
TRVI
TRVII
RNC1
RNC3
RNC4
RNC5
RNC6
RNC7
RNC8
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Would be likely to
23
25
28
33
26
26
25
23
26
30
25
27
26
start an unnecessary war
Effective in
75
74
74
75
64
64
69
NA
59
55
54
52
48
getting things done
Fights too much
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
31
NA
40
with Congress
Knows what he is
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
43
44
43
44
doing
-13-
How Well Do These Characteristics Describe President Reagan?
(Percentage of people choosing "fair" or "poor")
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
30-
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Feb 25-
Mar
April
April
April 30-
5-14
17-26
9-18
Dec 12
13-16
18-22
11-19
13-14
March 6
20-29
1-2
12-18
May 3
TRII
TRIII
TRIV
TRV
TRVI
TRVII
RNC1
RNC3
RNC4
RNC5
RNC6
RNC7
RNC8
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Would be likely to
76
74
69
73
73
70
73
74
69
65
68
68
68
start an unnecessary
war
Effective in getting
25
25
25
24
34
34
30
NA
40
43
44
46
50
things done
Fights too much
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
61
NA
54
with Congress
Knows what he is
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
55
55
53
54
doing
-14-
Making/ O
ECONOMY AND THE ECONOMIC PROGRAM
-15-
FROM WHAT YOU'VE HEARD AND READ, HOW MUCH OF RONALD REAGAN'S
ECONOMIC PROGRAM HAS BEEN PASSED BY CONGRESS: ALMOST ALL...
ABOUT HALF LESS THAN HALF OF IT OR NONE OF IT?
ALMOST ALL
14%
ABOUT HALF
39%
LESS THAN HALF
28%
NONE
4%
NO OPINION
15%
-16-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM?
Help or hurt the economy?
PERCENT
100
HELP
90
HURT
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3
E4
E5
E6
E7
E8
E9
E10
E11
T2
T3
T4
T5
R1
R4
R5
R7
E=Eagle: T=Track; R=' 82 RNC
FROM WHAT YOU'VE HEARD AND READ, DO YOU FEEL THAT, ON THE WHOLE, REAGAN'S
ECONOMIC PROGRAM WILL HELP OR HURT THE ECONOMY?
-17-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM
Helpful to people like you?
PERCENT
100
HELPFUL
90
NOT
HELPFUL
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3
E7
E10
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
R1
R4
R5
R6
R7
E=Eagle; T=Track: R='82 RNC
How WOULD YOU RATE REAGAN'S PROPOSED ECONOMIC PROGRAM? FOR INSTANCE, DO
YOU FEEL THE PROGRAM IS
HELPFUL TO PEOPLE LIKE YOU, OR NOT HELPFUL TO
PEOPLE LIKE YOU ?
-18-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM
Will it reduce inflation?
PERCENT
100
WILL
REDUCE
90
WILL NOT
REDUCE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3
E7
E11
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
R1
R4
R5
R7
E=Eagle: T=Track; R='82 RNC
How WOULD YOU RATE REAGAN'S PROPOSED ECONOMIC PROGRAM FOR INSTANCE, DO YOU
FEEL THE PROGRAM ... WILL REDUCE INFLATION, OR WILL NOT REDUCE INFLATION?
-19-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM
Fair or Unfair?
PERCENT
100
FAIR
90
UNFAIR
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3
E7
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
R1
R4
R5
R6
R7
E=Eagle: T=Track; R='82 RNC
How WOULD YOU RATE REAGAN'S PROPOSED ECONOMIC PROGRAM? FOR INSTANCE, DO YOU
FEEL THE PROGRAM IS FAIR OR UNFAIR?
-20-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM
WILL IT INCREASE EMPLOYMENT?
PERCENT
100
WILL
INCREASE
90
WILL NOT
INCREASE
80
NO
70
OPINION
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E3
E11
T5
T6
T7
R1
R4
R5
R6
R7
E=EAGLE; T=TRACK; R='82 RNC
-21-
WHO CAUSED RECESSION
REAGAN & GOP OR CARTER & DEMOS?
CARTER/DEMOS 46%
REAGAN/GOP 17%
NO OPINION 6%
NEITHER 12%
BOTH 19%
Some people blame the current recession in the country on President Reagan and the Republicans.
Others blame Jimmy Carter and the Democratic policies of earlier years. How about you? Do you
think that President Reagan and the Republicans have caused the current recession... or that
Jimmy Carter and the Democratic policies of earlier years are responsible?
-22-
THE BUDGET
-23-
REAGAN ECONOMIC PROGRAM
WILL IT CREATE DEFICITS?
CREATE DEFICITS 40%
NO OPINION 14%
BALANCE BUDGET 46%
-24-
OPTIONS TO REDUCE FEDERAL DEBT
PERCENT
100
ELIMINATE
C.O.L.A.
90
CUT DEFNS
80
GROWTH
70
RAISE
TAXES
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
FIRST CHOICE
SECOND CHOICE
THIRD CHOICE
-25-
TO BALANCE THE FEDERAL BUDGET, WHICH OF THESE TWO COURSES OF ACTION
WOULD YOU PERSONALLY MOST PREFER: SUBSTANTIAL TAX INCREASES IN THE
NEXT THREE YEARS
OR
DEEP CUTS IN SPENDING AND GOVERNMENT BENEFIT
PROGRAMS.
TAX INCREASES/NEXT 3 YEARS
18%
CUTS IN SPENDING AND PROGRAMS
65%
NEITHER
9%
BOTH
5%
-26-
OVER THE PAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF MEDIA
COVERAGE AND DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FEDERAL BUDGET. HAVE YOU HEARD
OR READ ANYTHING ABOUT THOSE DISCUSSIONS?
YES/HEARD OR READ
58%
NO/HAVEN'T HEARD OR READ
42%
-27-
"A term we have heard recently in the press is 'fiscal policy.' As you may
know, fiscal policy refers to what amount of money the government spends,
whether or not it balances the budget, and what kinds of taxes people pay. In
your opinion, who do you think is most responsible for what our fiscal policy
should be -- the President or Congress?"
Percent
President
17
Congress
72
Both
8
Neither/Other
3
-28-
ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC VARIABLES
PERCENT
100
OPTIMISTS
90
REBOUNDERS
80
70
PESSIMISTS
60
50
40
30
20
10
VII
0
ECONOMY
UNEMPLOYMENT
INFLATION
I RATES
-29-
Decision/Making/Information
OTHER ISSUES
-30-
"Here is a statement people have made to us about the country. As I read it,
please tell me whether you agree or disagree with what is said. Would that be
strongly (agree/disagree) or just somewhat (agree/disagree)?"
Agree
Agree
Disag
Disag
No
Strng
Smwht
Smwht
Strng
Opinion
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
It is important for world peace
that the United States keeps a large
39
30
16
11
4
military presence in Western Europe.
-31-
"As you may know, the United States has a sizeable trade deficit with Japan.
Some people say that high imports of Japanese goods are creating unemployment
in the U.S., particularly in the auto industry, so we should restrict the
number of imports from Japan. Others say that if you believe in free
enterprise, there should be no trade restrictions so consumers can get the
benefits of foreign products and prices. How about you? Do you think the U.S.
should restrict the level of imported goods from foreign countries or not?
(WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) Do you feel strongly like this or just somewhat
like this?"
Percent
Strongly/Restrict Imports
47
Somewhat/Restrict Imports
18
Somewhat/No Restrictions
11
Strongly/No Restrictions
21
No Opinion
3
-32-
Thermometer Ratings
Mean
Percent
Rating
Responding
The Democratic Party
60.58
94
The Republican Party
52.58
95
59.72
67
Margaret Thatcher
The government of Argentina
28.01
61
Walter Mondale
52.16
81
Ted Kennedy
52.94
95
58.39
98
Ronald Reagan
53.41
73
Tip O'Neill
-33-
VOTE FOR 1982 CANDIDATE
WHO SUPPORTS REAGAN ON.
PERCENT
100
MORE
LIKELY
90
LESS
80
LIKELY
70
NO
DIFFERENCE
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
EL SALVADOR
10% TAX CUT
ISSUES
-34-
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
(WITH LEAN)
PERCENT
100
REPUBLICAN
90
DEMOCRAT
80
70
INDEPENDENT
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10E11 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7
E=Eagle; T=Track; R='82 RNC
-35-
RESPONSE TO
THE PRESIDENT'S TELEVISED ADDRESS
April 29, 1982
-36-
PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES: EXPOSURE AND IMPRESSION
STUDY:
EAGLE III
TRACK I
RNC 2
RNC 8
SPEECH INVOLVED:
ADDRESS TO THE
TELEVISED
STATE OF
TELEVISED
JOINT SESSION OF
ADDRESS
THE UNION
ADDRESS
CONGRESS
ADDRESS
SPEECH DATE:
FEBRUARY 18, 1981
SEPTEMBER 24, 1981
JANUARY 26, 1952
APRIL 29, 1982
EXPOSURE
SAW ALL
39%
25%
33%
19%
SAW PART
25
20
22
21
HEARD/READ LATER
18
19
14
15
HEARD NOTHING
18
36
31
45
(TOTAL AUDIENCE)
82
64
69
55
IMPRESSION (BASED ON
AUDIENCE ONLY)
FAVORABLY
78
57
61
42
UNFAVORABLY
15
27
32
40
NO OPINION
7
16
8
18
IMPRESSION (BASED ON
TOTAL PUBLIC)
SAW/FAVORABLE
64
37
42
23
SAW/UNFAVORABLE
12
17
22
22
SAW/NO OPINION
6
10
5
10
HEARD NOTHING
18
36
31
45
-37-
POLITICS OF CONFRONTATION,
RONALD REAGAN AND REPUBLICANS
VERSUS
TIP O'NEILL AND DEMOCRATS:
LIABILITIES AND ASSETS
Net
Assets
Difference
Reduce the federal debt
43%
RR/Reps*
Favors increasing taxes
23%
TO/Demos
Trying to do what's best for the country
21%
RR/Reps
Best hope to get us out of the recession
19%
RR/Reps
Trustworthy
12%
RR/Reps
Their policies got us into this recession
10%
TO/Demos
Fair
4%
RR/Reps
Liabilities
Favors cutting social security benefits
59%
RR/Reps
Favors too much defense spending
55%
RR/Reps
Responsible for high unemployment
30%
RR/Reps
Stubborn
29%
RR/Reps
Cares about the needs of the elderly and the poor
24%
TO/Demos
Playing politics with the federal budget
8%
RR/Reps
Not sincere
4%
RR/Reps
Willing to compromise
3%
TO/Demos
*"I am going to read you a list of words and phrases. Please tell me for each
one whether you think it better describes Ronald Reagan and the Republicans
...or Tip O'Neill and the Democrats."
A plus percent reflects the difference between those saying Reagan and the
Republicans and those saying O'Neill and the Democrats, 62% (Reps) minus
19% (Demos) = 43%.
-38-
RONALD REAGAN SAID ON THURSDAY NIGHT THAT HE WOULD SUPPORT A
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THAT WOULD REQUIRE CONGRESS TO BALANCE
THE FEDERAL BUDGET. WOULD YOU PERSONALLY FAVOR OR OPPOSE THE
IDEA OF A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO BALANCE THE FEDERAL BUDGET?
FAVOR
60%
OPPOSE
27%
-39-