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State of the Union [1982 and] 1983 (4)
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State of the Union [1982 and] 1983 (4)
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Digital Library Collections
This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections.
Collection: Deaver, Michael
Folder Title: Staff Aims State of the Union [1982
and] 1983 (4)
Box: 57
To see more digitized collections
visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library
To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit:
https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection
Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected]
Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing
National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/
Darmas
Speeds
Jues
Bill Buckely
THE WHITE HOUSE
on Schedule
WASHINGTON
morning
January 15, 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR:
ANTHONY M. DOLAN
FROM:
RICHARD G. DARMAN
SUBJECT:
Additional State of the Union Materials
The following additional points and materials need to be
incorporated in the State of the Union draft at appropriate
points:
(1) A statement concerning funding levels for Minority
Business Assistance. This could go in the laundry
list of things not being cut. The President will
be proposing $552 million as the "program level"
for "minority business assistance." This would
allow him to say that he is proposing "over one-half
billion dollars for minority business assistance --
in order to assure that these program are not cut
from their 1981 levels."
(2) Clean Air. Somewhere or other we need to include
reference to this. Boyden Gray has provided suggested
language --- at Tab A. Please feel free to improve
upon the language; but the basic desirability of
including the thoughts is now largely agreed.
(3) Reference to the performance of our energy economy in
1981. Marty Anderson and Danny Boggs have pulled
together some facts on this subject (Tab B). Marty
presented them to the President, who thought that this
favorable story on the effect of more market-oriented
policy ought to be included in the State of the Union.
Obviously, you should not include anything as long as
what is at Tab B; but it may help you to extract key
points.
(4) Enterprise Zones. Bob Carlson has provided a memo
with a summary of the agreed plan for Enterprise Zones
(Tab C). From this you should be able to develop a
paragraph or two on the subject of that initiative.
(5) Federalism. A summary of the possible Federalism
initiative is at Tab D. The odds are sufficiently
high on this initiative being adopted that I think
you should count on having to include about two pages
on the subject.
-2-
(6) Caribbean Basin Initiative. At Tab E is suggested
NSC language on the Caribbean Basin Initiative.
Since this was written, the initiative has taken
more clear and interesting shape. I hope to have
improved language availabe for you by the end of
the day today.
(7) Drunk Driving Commission. I have no idea where this
could sensibly be worked in. But the President is
enthusiastic about the commission. It would deal
with what is unquestionably a major problem of life,
health, and safety -- and would, several of us think,
be a good thing to work in. A description of the
initiative by Drew Lewis and suggested language (which
is much, much too long) is at Tab F.
If you could get this all worked into a revised draft in some
appropriate way, we could then circulate that draft early
next week (Monday afternoon?) and could convene a group to
discuss it on Tuesday -- without the President. Following
that meeting, we could develop an organized presentation for
discussion with the President on Wednesday, say.
I will talk with Mike Deaver and Dave Gergen to get some such
schedule set up.
Thanks.
CC: "Deaver Group"
A
MEMORANDUM
OFFICE OF THE VICE president
WASHINGTON
January 14, 1982
MEMORANDUM TO RICHARD DARMAN
FROM:
C. Boyden Gray CBG
RE:
State of the Union -- Clean Air Act
Attached is a draft four-sentence statement on the Clean
Air Act set in the context of regulatory relief. The four sentences
could perhaps be separated out from the regulatory relief statement
if that is to be treated elsewhere, but the context should be either
regulatory relief or new jobs. Equally importantly, some reference
should be made somewhere to the Laxalt regulatory reform legislation
(such as the fourth sentence of the attached paragraph).
This has been verbally checked with Duberstein, Swanson
and Risque.
A
The agencies, OMB and the Task Force on Regulatory
Relief have made an excellent start in providing relief
from red tape, paperwork and other needless bureaucratic
burdens. Much more needs to be done, however, to promote
job opportunities and lower consumer prices while maintain-
ing protection for the workplace and the environment. We
will continue to press for relief in the agencies over the
coming year. But we need legislation, such as that now
awaiting floor action in both Houses, that would solidify
our procedural ability to manage the regulatory process.
I would also like to reiterate the high priority we give
to improving the Clean Air Act. We must maintain our
commitment to cleaner air, but at the same time we must
also eliminate the Act's complexities which needlessly
contribute to unemployment and slow economic growth. A
responsible bipartisan proposal to achieve these goals
and to promote new jobs has been introduced in the House,
and the Senate Committee has already begun its amendment
process. We will work with both parties in both Houses
to complete these initiatives on as tight a schedule as
possible over the next few months.
B
MCA from DJB 1/11/82
ENERGY SUMMARY - 1981
Opening Caveat:
Official 1981 figures are not available yet, in most cases.
However, we know enough that the following figures should be
accurate to within a few tenths of a percent or so. Since
Ronald Reagan was not President for the entire year, and it
takes some time for changes to take effect, these changes cannot
all be attributed to our policies, but they do show. what the
American system can do, when even the prospect of unshackling
is presented.
Results:
The actual results in our energy situation in 1982 were better
than anyone would have dared to predict at the start of the
year. However, they were right in line with what we would hope
could result from greater freedom to produce and use energy
wisely.
1) Production. Exploration, especially for oil, increased
enormously.
-- 80,000 wells drilled for oil and gas, up 28% from last
year.
-- 4530 rigs were drilling at the end of year, up 1100 in
11 months since decontrol.
-- Successful oil wells up 41%; successful gas wells up
only 10%.
-- For first time in a decade, oil production in the lower
48 states did not fall. It essentially was constant
(measuring all of 1981 against all of 1980). For the
last 6 months of 1981, production was up about 1% from
the last 6 months of 1980.
-- Despite the coal strike, which knocked out two months of
coal production, total production of energy will about
equal, or slightly exceed, production for last year.
2) Consumption. Americans continued to conserve energy in the
best sense of the word, using it wisely, without detailed
government dictates.
-- Although GNP rose about 2% in 1982, total energy use
declined by more than 1%.
-- We produced 3-4% more goods and services (GNP) with each
unit of energy.
-- Total oil consumption fell over 1 million barrels per
day.
-- Electricity generation rose only .5%, but oil use by
utilities fell sharply. In 1981 utilities used 1
million barrels of oil per day, down over 40% in just 3
years. A 10% increase in nuclear power helped in this
reduction.
Page Two
3) Imports. The greatest success story of the year, and one of
the least reported.
-- Net imports fell by 1.2 million barrels a day, bringing
our foreign dependency under 1/3 for the first time
since 1972.
-- Net imports of all energy provided only about 13% of our
consumption, less than any year since 1973, and possibly
lower than 1972 as well.
-- Despite the coal strike, American coal exports continued
to increase, reaching about 100 million tons this year.
4)
Prices. The above conservation and production was not
called forth by sharply higher prices. Nor did the
President's action decontrolling oil in January cause a
price explosion. Instead, it dampened it. Representative
prices before decontrol, and the latest available data:
Gasoline:
Pre-Decontrol
Latest
Oil & Gas Journal - Pump
128.60¢ (Jan 27)
130.46¢
(12/30)
Oil Daily - Pump ex taxes
112.35¢
(Jan
27)
116.35¢
(1/6/82)
EIA (month) - Pump
126.9¢ (January) 135.9 (Nov)
Other Products:
Crude Cost to Refiners
$34.86 (January)
$34.07 (Oct)
Wholesale Residual Oil
$38.00 (Jan 23)
$29.00 (Dec 24)
Wholesale #2 Heating Oil
$42.63 (Jan 23)
$41.48 (Dec 24)
Wholesale Gasoline
$43.19 (Jan 23)
$39.50 (Dec 24)
5) National Protection.
-- Oil in Strategic Petroleum Reserve more than doubled,
230 million barrels now in storage, up from about 105
at start of year.
-- Now equal to 45+ days of all imports, up from 20 days
at end of 1980.
-- Now is 125 days direct imports from Arab OPEC countries
V. 40 days at start of 1981.
C
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 11, 1982
FOR:
DICK DARMAN
FROM:
ROBERT CARLESON
BBC
RE:
Enterprise Zone Information
The objective of the Administration Enterprise Zone
Program is to reduce taxes, regulation and other govern-
mental barriers inhibiting entrepreneurial activity in
distressed areas, thereby stimulating economic revitalization
and creation of jobs for disadvantaged workers.
The Program contains three basic elements:
1. tax relief at the Federal, state and local levels
2. regulatory relief at the Federal, state and local
levels
3. adequate local services and infrastructure,
provided by state and local governments.
Because the program is based on the concept of removing
government burdens rather than providing government
subsidies, it should involve no appropriations, at least
at the Federal level.
This is a new idea and must be demonstrated in different
parts of the country.
The key to success depends on the degree of local and
state commitment to the zones. The Federal role should
be as a complement to state and local action.
The Administration commends those states which are acting
to create Enterprise Zones on their own.
Our proposals are on schedule -- we had to wait until
after adoption of the tax cuts to be able to determine
what additional tax cut incentives would be available
for Enterprise Zones.
CC: Martin Anderson
Ed Gray
January 7, 1982
The Administration Plan for Enterprise Zones
Executive Summary
Concept and Purpose. The Enterprise Zone plan is an experimental, free-
market program for dealing with some aspects of urban problems in inner cities.
The underlying concept of Enterprise Zones is to create a wide-open, free-
market environment in depressed, inner city areas through relief from taxes,
regulations and other government burdens, privatization of some city services and
involvement of private, neighborhood organizations. Because the program is based
on the concept of removing government burdens rather than providing government
subsidies, it should involve no appropriations, at least at the Federal level.
The incentives and natural market forces thus unleashed in central cities
would then be relied upon to stimulate economic activity within the zones and
accomplish the program's objectives. This would be similar to the free trade
zones established in other parts of the world, such as Hong Kong, which have been
quite successful in stimulating the development of poor areas.
The purpose of the program is twofold. One objective is to create jobs in
the nation's depressed, inner city areas, particularly jobs for disadvantaged
workers. But another objective is to redevelop and revitalize the geographic
zone areas themselves.
The intent behind the program is primarily to stimulate new economic activity
within the zones that would not have otherwise occurred at all, anywhere, rather
than to encourage existing outside activity to relocate into the zones. In
addition, the intent behind the program is not to attempt to stimulate a particular
kind of business, but rather to let the market decide what activities should take
place in the zones. While the Federal tax incentives are skewed towards labor-
intensive businesses and jobs for disadvantaged workers, the program generally is
meant to include a relatively balanced set of incentives for a broad range of
economic activities and businesses.
Program Structure. The Federal legislation would establish what areas would
be eligible to be declared Enterprise Zones based on criteria concerning poverty,
unemployment and economic distress. But this would not be an entitlement program
and, consequently, eligible areas would not automatically become Enterprise Zones.
Rather, an eligible area would first have to be designated by a state government
with local approval or by a local government with state approval. Both the
designating and approving governments would then have to apply to the Secretary
of HUD for Federal approval.
The Federal approval process would be competitive, with the quality and
strength of the incentives to be contributed to the proposed zones by the state
and local governments as the primary criteria for selection. Particular emphasis
will be given to incentives and contributions consistent with the overall Enterprise
Zone theme of creating an open market environment through the removal of government
burdens. These contributions would include tax relief, regulatory relief, possible
experimentation with private sector providers of public services, and involvement
in the program of private sector neighborhood and community groups. But other
contributions and factors will also be considered in this competition.
2
A maximum of 25 zones would be approved in each of the first three years of
the program. Each zone would last for the period chosen by the designating state
and local governments, with a maximum of 20 years plus a four-year phaseout of
Federal participation. HUD will be the agency administering the program.
Federal Tax Incentives. The major features of the Federal tax package are:
O a nonrefundable investment tax credit for capital investments in an
Enterprise Zone, applying to the construction or rehabilitation of
commercial, industrial or rental housing structures within a zone, as
well as investments in machinery and equipment,
o a nonrefundable income tax credit to employers for payroll paid to zone
employees in excess of payroll paid to such employees in the year prior
to zone designation,
0
a special, strengthened, nonrefundable income tax credit for wages paid
to zone employees who were disadvantaged individuals when hired,
a nonrefundable, income tax credit to zone employees for wages earned in
zone employment,
o
the elimination of capital gains taxes within the zones,
the designation of suitable Enterprise Zone areas as Foreign Trade Zones,
providing relief from tariffs and import duties,
the continued availability of Industrial Development Bonds to small
businesses in Enterprise Zones even if the availability of such bonds is
terminated elsewhere.
The Treasury Department's "worst case" estimates are that the cost of an
Enterprise Zone with this tax package would be $9.8 million to $13.3 million per
year in terms of foregone tax revenue. The cost of 10 to 25 Enterprise Zones in
the first year of the program would, therefore, be $98 million to $332.5 million.
As a whole, the effect of the above Federal tax package for most Enterprise
Zone firms will be to eliminate 75 percent or more of the corporate income tax,
eliminate entirely the capital gains tax, provide relief from tariffs and duties,
create easier access to start-up capital, and provide income tax relief to the
firm's employees.
Federal Regulatory Relief. Under the Administration plan, Federal regulatory
bodies (all agencies covered by the Administrative Procedures Act) would be given
discretionary authority to relax or eliminate their regulatory requirements within
Enterprise Zones, in accordance with standards promulgated by Congress, but only
upon the request of the state and local governments.
To utilize this authority, the state and local governments governing each
zone would initially ask Federal regulatory bodies to relax or eliminate particular
regulations within the zone. The Federal bodies would have the statutory power
to grant such requests at their discretion. Congressionally mandated standards
would dictate how the agencies were to use this discretion, requiring them to
consider and avoid significant detrimental impacts on the public health, safety,
3
welfare, etc. The standards would include an instruction to each body to weigh
the special economic redevelopment purpose of the zones against the other important
considerations and to relax or eliminate each particular regulation within a zone
when appropriate. A Federal regulatory body would have no authority to take any
action without without a prior request from both the state and local governments
governing each zone.
The only regulations which would not be affected by this authority are those
specifically imposed and spelled out by statute. The authority could be broadened
to include such regulations if each such statute was expressly amended by the
Enterprise Zone legislation. The Administration proposes that this be done in
only one case.
This one case is the applicability of the minimum wage law to teenage
employment within Enterprise Zones. Under the Administration plan, the Labor
Department would be given discretionary authority to relax or eliminate applicability
of the law to such employment. The authority could again be exercised only upon
the request of both the state and local government governing each zone. The
Department's discretion would also again be delimited by Congressionally mandated
standards, requiring the Department to weigh the public health, safety and welfare,
and the economic well-being of workers, as well as the creation of jobs and
economic activity within Enterprise Zones.
State and Local Government Role. The Enterprise Zone program is not simply
a Federal Government effort. To be successful, the program must have substantial
contributions from state and local governments. In fact, state and local contri-
butions will probably make the critical difference in whether a zone succeeds or
fails.
The initial importance of the state and local contributions is that they
will determine what designated zones will be Federally approved. It should be
emphasized that the Federal posture towards these contributions will be highly
flexible. No particular element of tax relief or regulatory relief, or any other
possible contribution, will be required. Failure to include one element in a
state and local package of contributions could be offset by greater strength in
the other elements. It should be remembered, however, that the state and local
contribution packages will be competitively evaluated against each other.
In the area of tax relief, state and local governments could provide reductions
in state and local income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, and other taxes
which vary among the jurisdictions. State and local deregulation could be provided
in such areas as zoning, occupational licensure laws, rent controls, usury laws,
minimum wage laws, other price controls, permit requirements, central planning
regulations and building codes. In the area of service improvement, "contracting
out" or "privatization" could be one means of achieving the desired result.
To encourage local community involvement, and to assure that the end result
of an Enterprise Zone is not merely gentrification-plus-displacement. state and
local governments could provide for the creation of "Neighborhood Enterprise
Associations" by zone residents. These Associations could undertake the provision
of some city services in their areas, help local residents to participate in the
economic success of the zones, particularly through mechanisms providing for
equity participation by zone residents, and support volunteer, self-help efforts
for the zone areas. Participation in the program by other private sector
organizations which could perform these functions could also be encouraged by
the state and local governments.
Directly tied to an economic program that seeks to stimulate the energy and
ingenuity of the American people is our new, far-reaching plan for the revival
of a creative Federalism in America and to truly turn control of government
back to the people.
We will never completely curb the growth of government in Washington until
we sort out properly and permanently the roles of the Federal government and
the 50 States. The system we have now is a nightmare that is satisfactory to
no one.
Washington pays entirely for some things, partly for others, nothing for
still others, and all the while seeks to control almost everything done by
State and local government.
Today there are nearly 500 Federal grant programs, costing nearly
$100 billion -- 14 times more than two decades ago. There are 36 programs for
pollution control, 66 for social services and 90 for education.
As a consequence, our once sovereign and independent State and local
governments have increasingly become mere cogs in the vast Federal bureaucratic
machine. Their priorities have been distorted, their flexibility eroded, their
judgment about the needs of the people shunted aside by mandates and rules from
Washington.
I am proposing tonight that we remedy our crippled capacity for self-
government with a single bold stroke -- the return of $60 billion in Federal
programs to State and local government, together with the means to finance them
and a transition of nearly 10 years to avoid unnecessary dislocation. This
long overdue realignment of our top-heavy governmental system is truly a
project worthy of a decade of our best efforts. It is the most singular legacy
we could leave to future generations from an era dedicated to putting America
back on the road to national health and greatness.
2
My Federalism program has several components:
o
Starting in fiscal year 1984, the Federal government will
assume full responsibility for the rapidly growing Medicaid
program, to go along with its existing responsibility for
Medicare.
As part of a financially equal swap, States will
simultaneously take full responsibility for the two major
components of our welfare system -- aid to families with
dependent children and food stamps. Welfare will be both
less costly and more responsive to genuine need when it is
administered closer to the people.
o
Starting in 1983, the Federal government will increase
certain excise taxes and apply the full proceeds from these
taxes -- existing and new -- to a Federalism trust fund that
will belong, in fair shares, to the 50 States. The total
amount flowing into this fund will be more than $35 billion
a year.
O
During a transition period of four years, the States can use
this money in either of two ways. If they want to continue
receiving Federal grants in such areas as transportation,
education and social services, they can use their trust fund
money to pay for those grants. Or, to the extent they
choose to forego the Federal grant programs, they can use
their trust fund money on their own, for those or other
purposes. There will be a mandatory pass-through of part of
these funds to local governments.
O
After four years, some 50 Federal grant programs will cease
to exist and the States will be in complete control of their
own priorities.
3
o
Also after four years, the Federal excise taxes will start
to phase out, to disappear four years later. The trust fund
will go out of existence on the same schedule. The States
will then have the option to preserve or lower these taxes
and to fund and manage these programs as they best see fit.
Now let us step back and examine what will be accomplished by this profound
change.
O
Fiscally, there will be an even exchange -- no net loss and
no net gain. Their savings from Medicaid and their new
trust fund will total nearly $60 billion a year, and Federal
grant programs in the same amount will be phased out.
o
There will be an end to the appalling uncertainty over how
much Federal funds will be available, when, and for what
purpose.
There will be a "do-it-yourself" opportunity to be rid of
Federal mandates, regulations and controls.
There will be renewed opportunity to decide priorities for
themselves, as was the case before the proliferation of
Federal grants. Most of these functions properly belong at
the State and local level, where decisions can be made by
officials and legislators much closer to the people
concerned.
Finally, this great realignment will restore what Justice Brandeis called
America's "laboratory of democracy." (Quote to follow.)
0126
E
it
MEMORANDUM
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
INFORMATION
January 8, 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR JAMES W. NANCE
FROM:
ROGER W. FONTAINE
SUBJECT:
Caribbean Basin Initiative
Per your request, below are comments on the Caribbean Basin
Initiative.
No area is more important to us than the Caribbean
Basin. Yet that region today is being torn apart by unprecedented
economic and political problems.
To meet these problems, the U.S. has consulted with
friends and allies, donor and recipient nations on how best
to stimulate economic growth in the region.
For its part, the U.S. is now prepared to say what it
will do. In the near future, I will outline in detail a
program that integrates aid, trade, and investment to pro-
mote self-sustaining growth in this vital region. With your
help we can show that growth -- real growth meaning jobs and
production -- can take place while democratic institutions
are developed and preserved. The United States cannot and
will not do it alone -- but it will lead the effort.
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
The Secretary of Transportation
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Washington, D.C. 20590
MEMORANDUM TO: Craig Fuller
Office of & Administration
FROM
: Drew Lewis
Secretary of Transportation
RE
: Presidential Commission on Drunk Driving
This memorandum is in response to your note to develop a plan for creating
a Presidential Commission on Drunk Driving. We believe such a Commission,
composed entirely of volunteers and leading figures from the private sector,
as well as appropriate state and local officials, would be extremely beneficial
in focusing national attention on the issue of drunk driving and catalyzing
state and local implementation of the most effective programs to curtail
this program.
1. Objectives of the Commission. The Commission would not have the respon-
sibility of conducting studies or research on the problem of drunk
driving. Comprehensive studies to determine the nature of the problem
and effective countermeasures have already been completed. We believe
such a Commission should have the following objectives:
To heighten awareness of the drunk driving problem.
To provide Presidentially endorsed contracts with various state/local
officials and organizations to gain their support in accepting
and implementing the latest techniques and methods to solve the
drunk driver problem.
O
To assist in catalyzing state and local communities into action
in an organized and systematic manner.
O
To assist in educating members of society as to the magnitude
of the problem and need for both short and long term solutions.
2. Expected Results. The Commission would not be a forum for further
study, but rather a public council to heighten public awareness and
catalyze action by state and local governments. Commission activities
could include:
2
O
Forums to highlight the magnitude of the drunk driver problem.
These could be arranged through communication and interaction
with various groups including police, judicial prosecutors, Bar
Associations, Legislative Associations, Governors' Association,
Mayors' Association, National Association of Counties, National
League of Cities, insurance groups, safety associations, State
Motor Vehicle Administrators, public media, citizen groups, and
civic associations.
O
Meetings with various state and local officials to create a positive
environment and enlist their support for action.
O
Models of new improved drunk driving statutes in the states,
such as driving while intoxicated, implied consent, illegal per
se, preliminary breath testing, and vehicular homicide.
O
Suggestions for interstate coordination in arrest, sanctioning,
treatment referral, license suspension through strict use of
driver license compact, etc.
O
"How-to" guides for implementation of comprehensive self-sufficient
state/local programs.
0
"How-to" guides for generating community/citizen support for
comprehensive programs.
O
Model programs to promote use of driver license sanction in addition
to referral to treatment.
3.
Timing of the Formal Announcement of the Commission. We are enclosing
a draft Presidential statement that could be used to announce the
creation of the Commission. We believe the announcement should be
made prior to Christmas in order to focus public concern on the drunk
driving problem over the Christmas and New Year holiday season.
4.
Composition of the Commission. In the next few weeks I will send
you a list of proposed members for the Commission. For this list
we are surveying appropriate individuals associated with the insurance
industry, tavern owners, the alcohol beverage industry, Governors
and their state officials, Federal elected officials, state/local
enforcement agencies, organized labor, private citizens, news media,
and other interest groups.
3
I look forward to working with the Commission by providing the necessary
staff support for its activities. The National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration is the Agency in the Department of Transportation that has
conducted the previous comprehensive studies on drunk driving and will
provide the staff responsibilities for the Commission. With this in mind,
I have enclosed an overview of the National Highway Traffic Safety Adminis-
tration's Program Plan for Alcohol Safety in the 80's, which will also
be provided to the Commission. I foresee our efforts in the Department
as complementary to and supportive of the Commission's activities.
4 Enclosures
Enclosure 1 - Presidential Statement Announcing Commission
Enclosure 2 - NHTSA's Alcohol Safety Program Plan for the 80's
Enclosure 3 - Proposed Schedule of Events for Commission
Enclosure 4 - Funding Requirements
Statement for the President
On Drunk Driving
I am deeply concerned about the continued tragic loss of American lives caused
by drunk drivers. Drunk driving is one of our nation's most serious public
health problems. At present rates, drunk driving will claim 26,000 lives and
cause 750,000 injuries over the next 12 months. Every day nearly 70 Americans
are killed in drunk driving incidents, a loss of one life every 21 minutes.
The economic loss, from medical costs, lost wages, lower productivity, higher
taxes, measures in the billions of dollars each year.
Drunk driving is one leading cause of death that can be prevented. We have the
means to significantly reduce this threat through concerted law enforcement,
effective, responsible action in the courts and in our legislative bodies, and
through the cooperative efforts of medical and treatment agencies in commu-
nities throughout the nation.
Positive steps are being taken in many States. The Governors of New York,
California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Washington have created special task
forces or commissions to deal with this problem. They are establishing the
essential laws and financial support to control drunk driving.
I will soon announce the appointment of a Presidential Commission to build on
the progress already being made. I will seek the advice and support of the
Congress and the participation of safety leaders and concerned citizens from
across the country in focusing national attention on this serious problem. The
Commission will work with our States and localities to secure the citizen
2
support and steps that are necessary to control the drunk driving menace. It
is a challenge that can no longer be deferred, a crime we must no longer
condone.
I am issuing this statement at this time because this senseless loss of life
due to drunk driving often increases during the holiday season. I want to take
this opportunity to remind motorists everywhere that driving after heavy
drinking is a serious danger to themselves and to others.
- ### -
(21)
Suggested Statement for the President
On Drunk Driving
I am deeply concerned about the continued tragic loss of American lives caused by
drunk drivers. Drunk driving is one of our nation's most serious public health problems.
Every day nearly 70 Americans are killed in drunk driving incidents, a loss of one life
every 21 minutes. The economic loss -- the medical costs, lost wages, lower
productivity and higher taxes --- measures in the billions of dollars each year. The grief
suffered by families over the loss of loved ones can never by measured.
I am appointing, by executive order, a Presidential Commission to give national
direction to the campaign by the states and by concerned citizens throughout the
country to halt the drunk driver menace. I have designated
to serve as
Chairman of the Commission.
I am asking the members of this commission to make every effort to focus
national attention on this serious problem. The suffering and losses resulting from
accidents involving intoxicated drivers is especially appalling when we consider that
much of that anguish could be prevented.
In carrying out its work, the Commission will seek the advice and support of the
Congress and the participation of safety leaders and concerned citizens from across the
country who already have done much to inspire public action. The Commission will
work with our States and localities to secure the increased citizen support and to take
the steps necessary to control drunk driving. I consider this an issue of great
importance. It is a challenge that can no longer be deferred, a crime we must no longer
condone.
I have great faith in the ability of our system of justice to deal with this problem,
and I have the utmost respect for what an aroused citizenry can achieve. The crusade
against drunk driving began where so many of the best efforts of our society originate
-- in the voluntary expression of concerned Americans. We could want no better
source, or find a stronger resource, as we act together to erase the pain and price we
have paid for too long to the drunk driver on our highways.
- ###### -
MEMORANDUM
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
January 10, 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR MIKE DEAVER
DICK DARMAN
CRAIG FULLER
Pat per
DAVE GERGEN
ED HARPER
MIKE MCMANUS
RICH WILLIAMSON
FROM:
DENNIS B IBDAIRIL
SUBJECT:
State of the Union
Attached is a draft of the national security section of
the State of the Union speech. It will require some
prunning and recasting to fit in with either of the two
drafts which Dave Gergen has circulated, but contains
the main ideas we wish to put across.
America's Mission
For the United States, national security policy transcends
simple protection of interests beyond our borders. In every
age there is a nation which is called on to advance the
ideals on which the progress of humankind is based. In this
age, that country is the United States, and those ideals are
freedom and democracy.
And this is why, even at a time of great difficulties at
home, when too many Americans are out of work, and when
there are many serious social problems to be solved in this
country, America cannot turn inward. While we work to solve
our problems here, we have a responsibility to fashion the
sort of international environment in which countries which
value individual freedom and democratic forms of government
can prosper.
But this responsibility which history has placed on us is
also a reward. We Americans benefit in tangible ways from
our extensive involvement in world affairs--our economic
growth is due in large measure to trade with other countries;
our overseas allies add their strength to ours in the defense
of common interests; our institutions and culture are continually
enriched by contributions from beyond our borders. The
United States would be a poorer, weaker and less exciting
place if we were to withdraw from an active involvement in
world affairs. And the world would be a darker, more oppressed
and dangerous place if the United States withdrew from it.
-2-
In the forty years since the United States has emerged from
the last world war as the preeminent world power, we have
kept the peace among the most powerful nations. With no
territorial ambitions and no old scores to settle, we have
had no strategic master plan except freedom and peace. We
have used our power with restraint and responsibility. We
have built, operated, and then reduced to scrap entire
nuclear weapons systems which never fired a shot in war. We
have not added a square inch of territory to our possessions.
Americans have been awarded (X) Nobel Peace prizes for their
efforts to bring an end to conflicts during this period.
The United States will continue to support a stable world
order. We will continue to exercise our responsibility to
minimize the danger of war.
Although the United States is the single most powerful
country, we are not alone. We are joined by common values,
solemn treaties, historical relationships and economic
interdependence with other great nations. The countries of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, our allies and
friends in Asia and South and Central America and elsewhere
form a bulwark of democratic values, personal freedom and
economic accomplishments. There has been a great deal of
-3-
attention to differences within the Alliance in recent months.
What we see are the healthy signs of an alliance of democratic
nations struggling with difficult questions. We will emerge
from the current period of bad economic conditions, and of
response to the massive Soviet force buildup. We will rediscover
that what unites us is far, far more important than what
divides us, and we will develop consensus policies on these
issues which all our publics and governments can support.
American and Allied strength and resolve have successfully
kept the peace among the world's major powers and especially
its nuclear powers. However, the use of force and violence
continues in many areas of the world. The United States has
an obligation and a unique influence to bring fighting to an
end; to foster solutions by negotiation and diplomacy.
Geopolitical Issues: The Middle East
In the Middle East, historic local animosities, oil resources
and proximity to the Soviet Union form a deadly combination
which threatens world stability and Western interests. The
United States, with strong relationships with both Israel
and the Arab states, is uniquely able to bring progress in
the search for peace in this region. My administration has
been able to take several important steps forward on the
road to peace. In
, 1981, when the final disengagement
of Israeli forces from the Sinai faltered, we kept it on
track. In 1982 my special envoy Phil Habib (recognizes
Habib in audience) successfully ended the fighting in
Lebanon, including the withdrawal of the PLO.
-4-
In September 1982, I publicly announced a plan for the
completion of the peace process between Israel and its
neighbors. That plan remains the best blueprint to return
stability to this region. (add latest status of Lebanon
negotiations) I remain committed to its fulfillment as a
high priority.
Southern Africa
In another of the world's trouble spots, the United States
is also leading the search for peace--southern Africa. This
resource-rich area which desperately needs economic development
is racked by civil war and threatened by foreign troops.
The United States neither has nor wishes to have troops or
bases in this area--our only interest is to bring an end to
the conflict, a withdrawal of foreign troops, and independence
to the state of Namibia. Since the beginning of my Administration,
American diplomats have been conducting intense and quiet
negotiations with the governments in the region. Most
recently the Vice President made a trip through Africa
during which he explained our peace plan and sought further
suggestions and support for our efforts. Working with our
allies, we will continue to press for peace for this troubled
region.
Central America
A final area of the world in which the United States has
special responsibility is Central America. Long neglected
by American policy, this region is both of strategic importance,
and is growing in the number and diversity of its ties with
the United States. This administration has developed a policy
towards Central America based on political development,
economic assistance, and military support. Our political
security assistance
development program is based squarely on democracy. One of
the most exciting days of the presidency for me was June
, 1981 when free elections took place in El Salvador. I
know that several of you members of Congress shared that
experience as members of a delegation which observed the
elections. Despite the predictions of failure, and in the
face of ruthless attempts by insurgents to sabotage the
elections, the people of El Salvador came to the polling
places and cast their votes.
The second dimension of our Central American policy is
economic development. We submitted to the last Congress a
plan called the Caribbean Basin Initiative. This proposed
legislation gives tax and import duty advantages to businesses
in selected Central American countries. This plan will
stimulate the private business development in Central America
which will contribute to steady, sustained economic development.
Although the legislation was not passed by the previous
Congress, we will pursue it as a high priority in the
current session.
Finally, the United States is furnishing security assistance
to governments under attack in Central America. If political
and economic development is to have a chance, then legitimate
governments must be able to defend themselves against
insurgent forces heavily supplied by the Soviet Union through
Cuba. We have and will continue to furnish that assistance
is necessarv.
-5a-
Foreign Assistance
In bringing peace to these important and troubled regions of
the world, and in protecting American interests, we must
have resources to supplement our national strength and our
diplomatic skill. We need the tools of foreign assistance
to use in specific regions for specific purposes. We must
be able to provide tangible security assistance to reassure
the threatened; we must be able to provide economic assistance
both to ensure political stability and to provide markets
for our own exports; we must be able to create incentives
for peace. In recent years our foreign assistance resources
have shrunk to a perilously low level, constricting our
opportunities and our own security. We are not talking
about soft-headed philanthropy--but a critical investment in
peace. This is a joint project of the Executive and Legis-
lative branches, and I need your cooperation and statesmanship
in providing this essential dimension of our foreign policy.
-6-
The Soviet Union
At the heart of American national security policy is our
relationship with the Soviet Union. With a new Soviet
leader taking power after 18 years' rule by Leonid Brezhnev,
the relationship is at an historic juncture. We need to be
very clear about what we expect from the Soviet Union and
what it can expect from us.
Our first order of business has been to change fundamentally
the trends in the power relationship between the United
States and the Soviet Union. In the aftermath of the Vietnam
War, and the political and social upheavals of the 1970's,
the United States allowed its armed forces to deteriorate
akility to deter conflict
along with its
international self respect
The Soviet Union
steadily increased its military forces and overtook the
United States in many key areas. The result was a widespread
perception that it was only a matter of time before the
became The arbiter of world events
Soviet Union Hisplaced the United States completely as the
preeminent superpower This perception affected the way the
United States acted in the world, it affected the way the
Soviets acted, and it affected the policies of third countries
toward both of us.
With a third year of substantial real progress in the defense
budget, my Administration has put in place the program to
redeem the neglect of the past decade. It is by now clear
to all that Americans will not settle for a decline into
1m potence and acquiesence
inferiority Americans will not settle for a future in which
we try to strike the best deal we can with our adversaries
to slow that decline and to cover it up.
-7-
We now have in place the basis for a national security
policy which will move imaginatively to support individual
freedom, democracy, economic development, and peace.
One measure of the success of our policy has been our arms
control relationship with the Soviet Union. We are currently
engaged with the Soviets in a broader range of arms control
negotiations than at any time in our history - on strategic
nuclear weapons, intermediate range nuclear weapons, and
conventional forces in Europe. And our approach is beginning
to show progress. In all our negotiations, the United States
has insisted that the two sides address significant reductions
in forces. We have also insisted that the treaties be verifiable.
In the face of the overwhelming evidence that the Soviet
Union has violated international treaties concerning chemical
and biological weapons, we will never again sign a treaty
unless we know we can be sure it is being observed. The
Soviet Union has accepted both of these principles--significant
reductions and verification.
In all three major arms negotiations, the United States,
supported by its Allies, has put forward draft treaties
incorporating our straightforward and fair principles -
significant reductions in similar types of forces to equal
and verifiable lower levels. In the case of intermediate-range
nuclear forces, we have proposed the complete elimination of
the entire class of land-based missiles. The Soviet Union
has responded with counterproposals which are encouraging
-8-
because they also propose reductions - reductions greater
than previous levels the Soviets have been willing to consider.
Unfortunately, the Soviet proposals do not cut deeply enough,
and, more significantly, they are designed to retain unilateral
advantages for the Soviet Union.
We will continue to press the Soviet Union in all these
negotiations. The key to our success in this search is
American and Allied resolve to maintain adequate defenses with
or without agreements. Once the Soviet Union is convinced
that its strategy of an arms buildup and unequal arms agree-
ments will not work, it will join us in the search for security
at lower weapons levels.
What is it we expect from the Soviet Union? The answer is
simple: we expect the Soviet Union to give up its ambition
to have as many weapons and forces as the rest of the world
put together; we expect the Soviet Union to cease threatening
and invading its neighbors, such as Afghanistan and Poland
on its border and beyond its borders.
The Democratic Initiative
A final crucial aspect of my Administration's national
security policy is the democratic initiative. In London
last summer I announced that the United States was committed
to throw its support behind democratic development throughout
the world. Democracy is not an ideology that we seek to
impose; it is compatible with many different cultures and
political beliefs. What it means is that people have the
-9-
right to choose their own leaders and to hold them accountable
for their actions. Since that speech, we have moved to take
specific steps to develop a policy to support democracy.
Under the sponsorship of the Republican and Democratic
national committees and with the cooperation of organized
labor, business and my administration, a study is now
underway. It will recommend practical measures America can
take to support moderate, centrist forces committed to
democratic processes throughout the world. I look forward
to working with the Congress in translating the ideas that
emerge from this study into reality.
In October of last year, we held a conference on building
democracy in communist countries and in November we held a
conference on free elections. Representatives of democracies
on seven continents exchanged experiences and ideas on the
conduct of free elections as the keystone of democratic
development. President Monge of Costa Rica reminded us all
that there must be an unbreakable bond between rich and poor
democracies, between democracies of the North and of the
South.
I intend to pursue this democratic initiative vigorously,
and in full cooperation with the Congress and other American
institutions. The future belongs not to ideologies and
governments which control and oppress their people, but to
the forces of personal freedom and self-government. It is
America's role to lead this movement, both to inspire by our
example and to assist in the development of freedom and
democracy in other countries.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 7, 1983
yve
MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL DEAVER
DAVID GERGEN
FROM:
ANTHONY R. DOLAN amo
SUBJECT:
State of the Union Address
I know you are very busy with the budget but I wanted to
make a point from the technical aspect of speechwriting that
I think is vitally important.
Dick Darman tells me that the President probably won't get
the speech drafts this weekend because there is a feeling
that this would be pointless until certain key budget
decisions are made.
If you recall, last year we sent the President a State of
the Union draft (which was lengthy and had a range of
material in it) which he worked on over New Year's weekend.
The draft the President produced was for all intents and
purpose the shell of the speech that was delivered later in
the month -- even though key decisions on whether to raise
taxes or whether to go ahead with the federalism initiative
had not been made.
I told Dick that I thought it was vital for the President to
be given an opportunity to at least start mulling over in
his mind the structure and emphasis he wants in various
sections of the speech. This he could do by simply looking
over the drafts and give us some feedback even if he doesn't
care to actually work on them. Dick seemed to think this
was a reasonable suggestion.
This is your decision, of course. But I thought that
despite the hustle and bustle you might want to think this
over. Many thanks.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 6, 1983
file here
MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL DEAVER
FROM:
CRAIG L. FULLER
CE
SUBJECT:
SOU Meetings
Just to recap the discussion we had on the President having a
few dinner meetings prior to finalizing the State of the Union
I have listed some groups and names that might be considered.
As we discussed the format would be a dinner with the President
in the residence. The purpose would be for the individuals to
give the President their view of the state of the union. The
session should be structured only to insure that there is a
healthy exchange of ideas among the guests and the President.
Opinion Leaders
-
George Will
-
Lee Iaccoca
-
Irving Kristol
-
George Shultz
Labor Leaders
-
Jesse Calhoun
-
Robert Georgine
-
Lane Kirkland
-
Ray Donovan
Democratic Leaders
-
(from Baker/Duberstein)
Other groups if time permits:
-
business/investment leaders
-
employment/training leaders
-
high technology representatives aprle computer juy
-
civil rights/minority
Decision/Making/Information@
Intelligent alternatives
for today's decision makers
1050 Seventeenth Street N.W., Suite 1100, Washington, D.C. 20036, (202) 822-9010
MEMORANDUM
TO:
President Ronald Reagan
FROM:
Richard B. Wirthlin
DATE:
December 18, 1981
SUBJECT: State of the Nation Address: Some Miscellaneous Comments
1. The Administration will face its most severe tests in the first
months of 1982 which will not only condition the outcome of the
fall elections but also expand (if we are successful) or limit
(if we are not) our policy options for 1983 and 1984.
2. Hence, your State of the Union address merits even more careful
consideration than your inaugural speech.
3. First and foremost, you need to put your Administration's
accomplishments in perspective for the American people.
4. This means:
A. Your remarks should be inspirational and visionary--not
directed to a programmatic review of the past.
B. Nevertheless, the past should be reviewed in the frame
of reference of the goals you articulated in the inaugural
and the Administration's successes and failures of the
past year reviewed in that frame.
5. In speaking of the next year, you should address some of the
hardships Americans will face--before we can reap the full
social and economic payoffs of your Administration in the latter
part of the year.
6. The overall tone of your remarks should be hopeful, but
realistic, and address specifically the aspirations of the
coalition which not only elected you in 1980 but, to a large
extent, still provides the foundation of your grass roots
support.
RGD - 12/18/81
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 18, 1981
NOTES BASED ON "DEAVER GROUP" MEETING
RE STATE-OF-UNION MESSAGE
These notes are based on discussions of the Deaver State-of-the-
Union/Long-Range-Scheduling-and-Communications Group (the "Deaver
Group"). They reflect a consensus among the group and address:
:
general guidelines re the character of the Message; and
--
the structure and arguments of the Message (draft)
GENERAL GUIDELINES
Agreed general guidelines are as follows:
--
The Message should be highly personalized. The personal
perspective should be carried throughout the Message --
with liberal use of anecdotes, personal recollections/
reflections, etc. To the extent that this means speaking
more directly to the general viewing audience at home,
and less to the assembled Congress -- fine.
--
The personal perspective should be that of an outsider
to government (out there, on the side of "the people") --
but one who has now had a year's experience inside, and
whose reflections are the considered reactions of one
who continues to struggle to restore government to its
proper role.
:
The topical emphasis -- apart from personal reflections,
etc. -- should be 30-40% foreign and 60-70% domestic.
That is to say, both foreign and domestic policy should
be treated, with somewhat greater emphasis on the latter.
--
The Message should touch on '81 accomplishments. But
these should not be a major theme or emphasis of the
speech. They should comprise perhaps 10% of the speech
(including related personal reactions).
Key elements of Presidential character/image to emphasize
are:
clarity and hopefulness of vision;
identification with non-governmental people;
consistency;
confidence;
sensitivity/understanding re poor;
sophistication/coherence re foreign policy;
capacity both to challenge and to work with
Congress (avoiding excessive criticism of
Congress and appearance of excessive rigidity)
capacity for initiative.
-2-
--
The general theme should be "American Renewal"
(following from "A New Beginning"). The
programmatic support of this general theme should
be conceived in relation to four sub-themes:
economic recovery;
private/voluntary sector revitalization;
restoration of creative federalism;
international re-stabilization, realism, and
reform
along with:
a renewal of the American spirit.
--
In elaborating upon these themes, the Message should
avoid parochial Departmental initiatives or parochial
appeals to special interest groups.
--
The Message should include programmatic discussion --
but should be weighted somewhat more heavily toward
goals/vision/reflection.
--
In any case, the laundry list approach should be avoided.
And the programmatic discussion should seem intellectually
coherent, principled, and sophisticated (even if simple).
--
A draft outline of the message, consistent with the
Deaver group discussion, is attached.
RGD - 12/18/81
DRAFT SoU OUTLINE --
"AMERICAN RENEWAL"
(A personal perspective)
I.
INTRODUCTION
--
A year ago, in Inaugural Address, promised "A New
Beginning.' We have made that new beginning -- and
tonight, want to talk about the American Renewal that
lies ahead.
--
But want to do so from the personal perspective of
one who has lived through most of America's twentieth-
century rise to world power and world responsibility.
II. REAGAN RETROSPECTIVE
--
[When I was a boy ]
--
Work in references to:
ancestors leaving hardship for this land of
opportunity -- tie to America, "nation of
immigrants," "land of opportunity," "beacon
of hope;"
disappointment, hardship of Depression;
[enchantment with Roosevelt] -- tie to sense
that government and community, together, have
an affirmative obligation toward the truly needy;
and sense that key to healthy society is an
economy able to provide jobs on a growing and
sustainable basis.
tragedy of two World Wars (and several lesser
conflicts) -- tie to inescapable responsibility
for strong defense and defense industry;
interference with domestic civil liberties by
Communist organizers -- tie to need for realism
in assessment of threats to our precious freedoms;
reactions to 70's:
--
growth of excessive government;
--
mistaken sense that U.S. had lost self-
confidence -- and must shrink from its
responsibilities;
--
mistaken sense that fear of Communism
was "inordinate";
--
mistaken sense that "stagflation" had
to be endured
--
All of which led to real and perceived need for "A New
Beginning"
-2-
III. THE NEW BEGINNING
In past year, have in fact delivered on promise of
a "New Beginning".
--
With bi-partisan Congressional support have charted
a course toward American Renewal:
strengthened defense (elab. re strategic
force modernization, RDF, etc.)
4-part program for economic recovery:
:
monetary growth stabilization, through
Fed.;
--
historic tax reduction; (personal aside)
--
historic budget reduction (personal aside)
--
historic regulatory reduction (personal aside).
--
Yes, there are difficulties -- particularly unemployment
and prospect of unacceptably high deficits. But these
are the result of past policy failures (explain).
--
Solutions not to try to balance the budget on the back
of the taxpayer
--
Indeed, the worst thing now would be to fall back upon
the bankrupt policies of the past.
IV. THE AMERICAN RENEWAL
--
For we are on the verge of a great American Renewal
--
Our 4-part Economic Recovery Program is sound.
interest rates down from inherited highs;
inflation down from inherited highs;
growth of gov't spending has been slowed
significantly; and
most importantly, tax and regulatory relief
have provided the basis for strong and
sustained economic recovery.
Real growth -- and jobs, jobs, jobs -- will rise
strongly in second half of this year, and will
continue to rise thereafter.
--
Our efforts to help Revitalize the Private Voluntary
Sector are:
right philosophically (explain); and
already showing remarkable signs of progress (example).
NOTE: This area of initiative should not be conceived
merely as a budget gap-filler. This is an inescapably
important and desirable approach to problem-solving for
any society that would intend to preserve the meaning and
values of private action.
-3-
--
Our efforts to restabilize the international political
environment -- to preserve peace and freedom to the
maximum extend possible -- are:
rooted in realism:
--
Note: Afghanistan/Poland (who now can
speak responsibly of "an inordinate
fear of Communism")
--
Note: Soviet buildup/adventurism generally
prudent and responsible:
--
importance of defense build-up and allied
cooperation, given Soviet pattern;
--
equal importance of efforts at arms reduction
(note historic initiative
....)
[Here reaffirm appropriate declaratory policy committing
to resist terrorism, oppose external intervention, etc.]
--
At the same time as we seek to stabilize the military
and political environment -- protecting the most basic
human freedoms -- we must also seek to improve the quality
of life for the billions of disadvantaged people in the
developing world. Again, our approach must be rooted not
only in the finest tradition of American idealism, but in a
realistic assessment of the development experience:
America itself was a developing country
Link to restatement of proven development principles
from Philadelphia/Cancun.
--
While we seek an international community of nation-states
that is capable of peaceful pluralistic development, we
still have much to do at home to restore the creativity
of the American federal system:
As we shrink the growth of central government,
we must strengthen the capacity of state and local
government -- government closer to the people.
Therefore: [Big Federalist Initiative -- with
$50 billion turn-back of programs and taxes, and
with $2 billion "Fund for Federalist Innovation"].
V.
CONCLUSION
--
Highlight how all of this comes together as a vision and
a plan for "American Renewal"
It is all made possible by a "Renewed American Spirit".
And it is all essential for the preservation and fulfill-
ment of the potential and mission of an American spirit
that can be continually renewed. [Include a little city-
on-the-hill stuff -- and finish].
mike Deawer
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
STRATEGIC PLANNING MEMORANDUM
James Baker
Michael Deaver
WASHINGTON #3 UNION have
Damaga
TO:
Edwin Meese
FROM:
Richard S. Beal
SUBJECT:
The 1982 State of the Union Message
DATE:
September 25, 1981
yes, thank you'd you
This Strategic Planning Memorandum contains twenty-four recommenda-
tions on the 1982 State of the Union message. The recommendations
are based on the President's election mandate, an extensive analysis
of previous messages (see Strategic Evaluation Memorandum #3), an
evaluation of the President's initiatives in the first year, plans
for Phases IV and V of the President's Strategic Plan, and an assess-
ment of the political focus that will be required during 1982.
The first seven recommendations pertain to the proposed form of
delivery, the date of delivery, and preparation of the 1982 message.
Recommendations #8, #9, and #10 cover the proposed three major goals
of the message:
- To assure and inspire the American people about the
President's understanding of their problems, his
visions for the future, and his leadership goals;
- To enhance the coalition-building needed for the
1982 political processes; and
- To set the tone and pace for the policy focus of the
President's Strategic Plan.
Recommendations # 11 through #22 contain more specific thoughts on how
these goals of the message might be accomplished. The final two
recommendations concern the general communications strategy and the
overall commitment needed to make the President's first global
address in a year one of his very best yet.
THE STATE OF THE UNION MESSAGE
The Constitution states: "[The President] shall from time to time
give to the Congress information of the state of the Union, and
recommend to their consideration such measures as he shall judge
necessary and expedient". Past presidents have employed several
means for carrying out this responsibility. Basically, the President
has these options:
- Transmit a written message;
- Deliver an oral address; or
- Communicate both a written message and an oral address.
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-2-
Following 112 years of written delivery of messages, President
Woodrow Wilson renewed the personal address used by Presidents
Washington and Adams. Since Wilson's address in 1913, the personal
delivery has become the dominant method used in this century. The
State of the Union message is one of the most important opportunities
for the President to talk to the American people and their Congres-
sional representatives simultaneously. The people need to see and
hear the President as he delivers his leadership message.
Recommendation #1: For the above reasons, and because this
is an excellent opportunity for the President to employ his
outstanding communication skills, it is recommended that the
President deliver an oral address, and permit the Fiscal
Year 1983 budget message and subsequent legislative propos-
als to serve as the written, accompanying information.
The 1982 State of the Union message comes at the beginning of the
President's second year in office, which is also a critical year of
elections. The message also initiates Phase IV of the President's
Strategic Plan. It is of vital importance therefore, that the
message be a "top-down", global speech that recognizes each of the
above facts. It must be "top-down" in the sense that it continues
the style of leadership and programs initiated at the top by the
President thus far.
The speech must contain major statesmanship quotes which will be
remembered. It should be a direct, understandable, and persuasive
presentation of the President's philosophy and views, which will
solidify his popular support. It must be the President's view of the
nation and where he truly believes we are going. It should not
simply be a compilation of statements about programs put together by
the various units of the Executive Branch and floated up to speech-
writers in the White House. Nor, can it be a potpourri of material
presented in the styles of Presidents Johnson, Nixon, and Carter.
Rather, it should be part of a sequence of leadership actions by the
President, cues to which would have begun in the Fall of 1981, and
which will carry over into the 1982 political activities.
Recommendatio #2: It is recommended that the address be a
sterling visionary speech containing impactful statements
which will be remembered historically, and that 1) inspire
support for the goals the President has set for the nation
during his Presidency, and 2) encourage the coalition-
building and policy focus urgently needed for the 1982
political processes.
Date of the Message
Recommendation #3: It is recommended that the message be
presented on Wednesday, January 20, 1982, the anniversary of
the inauguration and a mid week day less likely to compete
with other national events.
what Congress if back not
O'Neill
intends
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-3-
Preparation of the Message
Preparation of the message is of high priority, and will require
concerted efforts by the White House Staff. Absolutely the best
person to prepare the speech must be selected. That person must have
direct knowledge of the interests and style of the President, and be
given ample time and support to compile the necessary information,
ensuring that all persons who might be able to contribute to the
speech are consulted. The President must be involved from the very
beginning, and be given adequate time prior to the date of the speech
for final polishing and practice.
why
Recommendation #4: A competent person who has the
confidence of the President should be selected to write the
speech. The individual selected should begin work no later
not
than October 1, 1981, be free from other commitments, and be
allowed complete access to individuals whose contributions
are required.
Recommendation #5: The President should be the first person
consulted about the content of what he wishes to convey to
the American people.
Thoughtful
Recommendation #6: Key members of the Republican leader-
ship, Cabinet members, and others of equal stature should be
consulted on their ideas for the speech.
Recommendation #7: The President should receive a draft
(qood
copy of the address no later than January 1, 1982. He
should have at least three consecutive, uninterrupted days
prior to the speech, preferably away from the White House,
that!
to provide time for reflection and to make final prepara-
tions.
OVERALL GOALS FOR THE ADDRESS
The President is viewed by most people as a strong individualist, who
is pursuing conservative policies that have been absent from a major
leader in a position of power for many years. People feel pretty
good about the President thus far, for a variety of reasons, but this
relationship may be fragile and continually needs to be solidified.
That is why people should get from the State of the Union message
answers to questions they may have about "why they trust Ronald
Reagan " They should hear the views about the condition of the
country he expressed in his campaign - but now as the President would
express them. They should hear some of the promises he made in the
campaign - but now as the President would make them.
People must react to the speech by saying "I hadn't really looked at
it that way before, but the President has hit squarely on the nose
what has happened to this country. His views of our society are
quite accurate, thus I will presume that what follows (visions and
leadership actions) will be equally correct and insightful." This is
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-4-
a lot to hope for, since an analysis of the news coverage of past
speeches has shown that State of the Union messages have had little
impact on public opinion. But it is very important to gain the
confidence of those people on the fence, and to reassure those who
have believed in the President but not known quite why. More will be
said about this in a later section.
Recommendation #8: It is recommended that the first major
goal of the speech be to express, in terms the American
people can understand and accept, inspiration and assurances
about the President sharing their views of the current
conditions in the country, visions of where the country
should go, and his proposed leadership actions.
While it has not in the past had a measurable impact on public
opinion, the State of the Union message can and should be a valuable
political tool.
The message must be carefully tailored to appeal to various groups
important to preserving and extending the coalitions needed for
further implementation of the economic recovery program and national
security strengthening. The cooperative spirit of Congress during
the first year must be warmly acknowledged. Subtle messages should
be sent to all parts of the country that the President understands
their problems and that his visions and leadership cover those
problems.
We have an extraordinary political situation in Congress. This is
the first time since 1931 that control of Congress is split. (It also
occurred in 1911, the only other time in the 20th century, ten times
in the 19th century, and once in the 18th century.) Also, this is
the first time the Republicans have controlled either House since the
83rd Congress (1953-54), 27 years ago. These facts might be pointed
out as reminders to confused voters. More will be said in a later
section about the political nature of the address.
Recommendation #9: It is recommended that the second goal
of the State of the Union address be to set in motion the
political focus which must occur in support of coalition-
building needed for the 1982 political processes. (The
press will say that it is a partisan political speech,
so
anyway.)
The State of the Union message initiates Phase IV of the President's
Strategic Plan. Phase IV concludes on May 15, 1982, the final date
for submitting Fiscal Year 1983 authorizing legislation to Congress.
During this period there will be a great deal of interaction between
the Administration and Congress, through introduction of the Presi-
dent's legislative proposals, testimony at Congressional hearings,
and general attempts to build coalitions and influence one another.
(Since these interactions will continue through the Summer of 1982,
Phase V (May 16 - September 30, 1982) will be treated with Phase IV
for planning purposes.)
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-5-
In the message, the President's agenda should be outlined, and the
entire "team" of White House staff, Cabinet members, and agency
executives should be poised to follow up through assigned roles.
They should be prepared to interact with Congressional committees and
subcommittees and important constituent groups, e.g. mayors, business
leaders, labor leaders, professional associations, and to provide
management direction to their respective departments and agencies.
Following the speech and throughout the year, the President must be
able to spend the bulk of his time on the agenda outlined in the
speech, and not be drawn into issues and items not contained in the
message. Members of the "team" should handle as many of these as
possible.
Recommendation #10: It is recommended that the third goal
of the State of the Union message be to set the tone and
pace for the policy focus needed in Phases IV and V of the
President's Strategic Plan for management of economic
recovery and national security strengthening. It is also
recommended that the speech provide the overall guidance and
direction for the interactions between the Administration
and Congress.
The following sections contain further recommendations and comments
on how the above three goals might be achieved.
GOAL NO.1 - TO ASSURE AND INSPIRE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ABOUT THE
PRESIDENT'S UNDERSTANDING, VISIONS, AND LEADERSHIP
Tradition of the State of the Union Message
There are some important traditions attached to the message that the
President should observe. Perhaps the most important is reference to
the relationship between the President and Congress, and the Presi-
dent's view of that alliance. He might wish to acknowledge belief in
the separation of powers, but should point out that there is a mutu-
ality of responsibility for governing that must be shared by all
three branches, and indeed by all levels of government: Federal,
State, and local.
There is usually some mention during the speech of the two-party
system. This might be particularly appropriate to mention in 1982
because, as previously mentioned, for the first time in 27 years
Republicans are in the majority in one of the Houses of Congress.
The point might also be made about the importance of transcending
party or partisanship in the national interest, another theme which
has occasionally appeared in the messages of the last 70 years.
A review of past messages shows that in their first annual message,
most presidents describe a long list of national and international
problems inherited from preceding Administrations. This is usually
followed in future messages by reports of success in meeting those
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-6-
problems, or blame on Congress for failing to act on presidential
initiatives. This may be a "tradition" that President Reagan should
not choose to respect.
Recommendation #11: It is recommended that the President
warmly thank the Members of Congress for their hard work and
bi-partisan efforts on behalf of his major goals, that he
stress the difficult decisions and sacrifices that are still
ahead, and that he appeal to Congress, to the judiciary and
to States and local governments to make government work
better for the the American people and at much less cost, in
other words "less government - better governance".
The President's Views - National Heritage
While the more important parts of the State of the Union message will
be those which emphasize the President's visions and leadership for
the future, there must be some important reminders of America's heri-
tage. This is especially timely with the various 200th anniversaries
occurring during the President's term(s) of office. In fact, the
200th anniversary of the ratification of the Constitution may be as
important, if not more important, as that of the Declaration of
Independence. The Constitution, it might be pointed out, is actually
the instrument that makes us a Union and that has kept us a Union
throughout some very turbulent times. And, it is the continued life
of that instrument which will shape the future of the Union and the
directions we take.
America's religious heritage should also be mentioned. While some
care must be exercised in the exact choices of words, various messa-
ges can be communicated to specific groups as well as to the general
population. Phrases can be liturgical or cultural in character
without offending.
Recommendation #12: It is recommended that the President
stress the importance of remembrance, and indeed celebration
of our heritage, through reference to some of the more
noteworthy 200th anniversaries that will occur during his
term(s) of office.
The President's Views - National Conditions
The President must frankly and honestly present his views on the prob-
lems the country now faces, and the solutions which he believes are
the right ones. The views must be those of a citizen, a patriot, and
a President. The views must offer hope, but not paint over difficul-
ties.
Since Ronald Reagan may be seen as "different" from recent presi-
dents, in whatever respect and for whatever reasons, the State of the
Union message should perhaps be "different" from those given in
recent years. That is, rather than single out issues, major and
minor, the President might take a more global approach and truly
describe how he sees our "205-years young" country. His view should
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-7-
not be a 20th-century version of de Tocqueville's visit to America.
Rather, it can and should be a contemporary description of what the
United States of America has become.
The purpose is, as stated before, to give people confidence that the
President indeed has a correct perspective of modern America. And,
he should make clear that his policies and actions are based on this
contemporary view. All of this should be aimed at overcoming what-
ever concerns people have that the President is wedded to the past,
and not in touch with current conditions and life styles.
Throughout the discussion of his views on national conditions, the
President must stress his continued belief that we are and will
continue to be a Union, despite the fact that we are a much different
Union than that which existed 200 years ago, or 100 years ago, or
even 10 years ago. He should point out that we must constantly look
at ourselves in the mirror of honesty to be sure of what we have
become, since what we have become is the real foundation on which
changes and solutions can be based.
With the above in mind, the President's analysis of "the state of the
Union" should be kept relatively simple, but still different from
that of his predecessors. A sociological (not social) assessment of
the country might accomplish this.
In fact, this part of the address might be in two parts: 1) a look at
the people who constitute the "Union", the individual citizens who
reside in all parts of the country; and, 2) a look at the "uniting"
that has taken place, in terms of the many organizations and interest-
groups that people have joined for all the many reasons. Thus, the
"state of the people", and the "state of their associations" equate
to the "state of the Union."
In discussing the people who make up the Union, the President must be
careful not to simply present a census briefing. However, he should
stress some of the important points about where people live, how they
live, their divergent behaviors, their hopes, fears, wishes, con-
cerns, and what all of this really means, i.e. a country in which
values are multiplying rather than becoming more uniform, and one in
which government is less able to meet the diverse individual demands,
hopes, and expectations of its people.
This part of the speech can send subtle messages to all parts of the
country by covering conditions in each - east, west, south, and
north; or, Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, North Central, Southwest,
Far West, Northwest. Areas need not necessarily be mentioned by name
for people to know which is being addressed. This type of coverage
might be valuable in the appeal for coalitions needed for citizen-
based, private-focused, governmental or political initiatives to
follow. It would also show an awareness by the President of condi-
tions in all parts of the country and how they vary. (For a detailed
listing of the primary issues of concern to various regions of the
country, see Table 1 on the following page.)
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-8-
TABLE 1: REGIONAL ISSUES AND CONCERNS
For the ultimate purpose of providing a political analysis of the
State of the Union message, the primary issues of concern to each
region of the country are listed.
NEW ENGLAND - Energy Costs, Social Security, Enterprise Zones,
Nuclear Power, Catholic Issues, Defense Spending
MID ATLANTIC - Crime, Unemployment, Enterprise Zones, Railroads,
Coal, Steel, Shipping (International Trade), Catholic Issues, Dairy,
Nuclear Power, Energy Costs, Minority Issues, Auto Industry, Foreign
Policy
SOUTH ATLANTIC - Defense Spending, Federal Workers Issues, Shipping
(International Trade), Cotton, Tobacco, Peanuts, Government
Regulation of Industry, Minority Issues, Fundamentalist Issues
FLORIDA - Crime, Immigration, Drugs, Defense Spending, Social Secur-
ity, Hispanic Issues, Interstate Citrus Problems, Shipping (Interna-
tional Trade), Minority Issues
DEEP SOUTH - Defense Spending, Shipping (International Trade), Sugar,
Cotton, Minority Issues, Unemployment, Coal, Steel, Oil, Housing/-
Lumber, Fundamentalist Issues
TEXAS-OKLAHOMA - Oil, Gas, Shipping (International Trade), Immigra-
tion, Defense Spending, Interstate Citrus Problems, Hispanic Issues,
Cotton
GREAT LAKES - Unemployment, Auto Industry, Steel, General Farm
Issues, Dairy, Catholic Issues, Coal, Energy Costs, Minority Issues,
Nuclear Power
FARM BELT - General Farm Issues, Land and Water Rights, Indian
Issues, Social Security
SOUTHWEST - Immigration, Hispanic Issues, Land and Water Rights,
Indian Issues, Social Security
ROCKY MOUNTAIN - Railroads, Coal, Oil, Synfuels, Land and Water
Rights, Environmental Issues
PACIFIC NORTHWEST - Defense Spending, Housing/Lumber, Environmental
Issues, Nuclear Power, Unemployment, Shipping (International Trade)
CALIFORNIA - Defense Spending, General Farm Issues, Oil, Environmen-
tal Issues, Nuclear Power, Shipping (International Trade), Hispanic
Issues, Foreign Policy, Interstate Citrus Problems
ALASKA AND HAWAII - Shipping (International Trade), Defense Spending,
Land and Water Rights, Oil, Environmental Issues
-9-
In reviewing the "uniting", or the phenomenon of people joining
organizations, social groups, professional associations, clubs,
committees, and for hundreds of purposes, the President must analyze
thoughtfully what this "organizational society" we have become means
for the concept of "Union". He must not simply describe this phenome-
non. He must point out that it means that people are most likely
turning to these special interest organizations because they are more
nearly satisfying the many needs people have that are not being met
by big government. And, rather than discouraging this trend toward
joining, it is encouraged as a means for ensuring that local condi-
tions are developed and maintained by and for the people who will
benefit from them and have a stake in them, not from strangers in
Washington.
This part of the speech is quite tricky, in that there are still many
who are suspicious of and frightened by groups, no matter what their
purpose. Therefore, it must be treated as a fact of life and another
way in which the "Union" is changing And, it is one that has numer-
ous implications for leadership in all parts of the nation.
Recommendation #13: It is recommended that the President's
views on national conditions be a major part of the State of
the Union message, and that it lay the foundation for the
President's visions for the future of the country.
The President's Visions and Leadership Actions
The President should present strong, statesman-like views when
recounting his visions for where the country should be headed and the
leadership he intends to provide. These sterling, visionary state-
ments should be the rationale for the legislative agenda that he can
promise will follow. In keeping with his personal principles, the
President should perhaps recall that in the campaign he asked the
question "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" He
should stress that he has not forgotten that statement, he has not
forgotten what the condition of the economy was, he has not forgotten
the sad shape of our defense capabilities, he has not forgotten that
people were frustrated and without leadership and direction, and he
has not forgotten that he promised to do something about this if
elected.
Here he might also present some of the fundamental values he holds
for America, and that indeed have held up throughout the values
explosion that occurred in recent decades, i.e. the sixties and
seventies. The two most prominent values that all Americans can and
should relate to are 1) dignity of the person, and 2) the rule of
law. The President should reference the deep body of literature and
his study of government that has shaped a strong belief that "less
government, but better governance", is the way to ensure greater
individual freedom and control over the pursuit of happiness, treat-
ment with dignity and adherence to laws.
-10-
He should not simply roll out and recount program after program that
will address all the nation's ills. Instead, he should embellish the
principles he stood for during the campaign with the Presidential
cloak of confidence and the authoritative ring of concern. These
principles should include, but not be limited to the following:
shifting much of the responsibility for personal, social and economic
objectives to private individuals, organizations, and the free
enterprise system; encouraging a feeling of confidence and security
among all Americans; reducing the involvement of the federal govern-
ment in people's lives; making Presidential decisions on the basis of
what is good for the country rather than for political expediency;
not permitting long-term policy goals to be foreclosed by short-term
interests or events; not raising expectations beyond what is reason-
ably achievable; trusting in the values of American society; and
expending minimum amounts of dollars to achieve maximum levels of
innovation in fulfilling priority policy goals.
While much of what should be in this part of the speech is well-known
and very personal to the President, the caution might still be heeded
of not roaming too far and wide from reality. Just as people should
believe the President has a correct view of the country today, so too
must they believe at the end of the address that he has a balance of
realism to go with the all-important idealism they expect of him. In
other words, people must also say "By golly, the President has a
down-to-earth view of things, and is not as caught up in the world of
his wealthy friends as I thought he was. He seems to really remember
what the small-town, regular working person hopes and wishes for and
is concerned about and fears."
Recommendation #14: It is recommended that the President
include in the State of the Union message his visions for
the country that were stated in the campaign, and which he
has had time to refine following the real experiences of his
first year in office. It is also recommended that he
clearly describe the leadership actions he personally will
take during his time at the helm to achieve "less government
- better governance", while holding to the two fundamental
American values of 1) dignity of the person and 2) the rule
of law.
GOAL NO.2 - TO ENHANCE COALITION-BUILDING AS A NECESSARY POLITICAL
PROCESS THROUGHOUT 1982 AND WHICH IS ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN THE REAGAN
POLICY AGENDA TO THE END OF THE TERM IN 1984
The State of the Union message should be the vehicle which sets in
motion the focusing of political issues which are critical to the
important democratic processes that will occur in 1982. It should
sound the themes and set the tone for those endeavors. In January,
1982, State elections will be well-underway. The party control
situation in Congress has already been noted as a somewhat unique, or
at least quite rare, one. It has also been pointed out that the need
for coalitions with Congress are crucial to achievement of the Presi-
dent's visions, leadership, and legislative proposals. Not stressed
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
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as much, but of equal importance, are the public coalitions to which
the President can appeal, and has appealed, to win support for his
initiatives. These two different, but very important, political
coalitions must be treated in the message.
The Electoral Coalitions
First and foremost, electoral coalitions deserve credit for the
President winning the office. Thus, the speech must be carefully
tailored to appeal to the various individuals and groups in these
coalitions. And, these coalitions must be thought of in terms of
geography as well as individual and group identity. (The major
issues of interest and concern in different geographical sections of
the country were listed in Table 1.)
In appealing to citizens and citizens' groups comprising the Reagan
coalitions, two approaches can be taken. The first is to appeal to
the Reagan supporter as an individual who identifies with the Presi-
dent's aspirations and goals. This type of appeal must be made to
appear inclusive rather than exclusive. That is, these individuals
must feel that they are a part of the majority rather than a special,
exclusive minority supporter. Second, the speech can be tailored to
appeal to the various groups of Reagan supporters. In this approach
the message cannot simply list proposals aimed at every group in the
country, such as Nixon and Carter offered. On the contrary, it
should be a precisely défined appeal that will serve to unite and
increase the intensity and numbers of like coalitions. The news
media will notice any omission of major population groups, such as
Blacks. Even though this group is not a major part of Reagan coali-
tions, it may be necessary to reference their concerns.
To draw into the coalitions those who voted against Carter, the
following strategy might be employed. If the country is doing well,
we must draw comparisons to the Carter Administration performance.
If the country is not doing well, we must speak in broader terms and
of ultimate goals. We must stress the deep-seated problems of the
past 20 years, and emphasize permanent solutions to problems. We
must also indicate a longer time frame needed to accomplish goals,
and stress, to a certain extent, social issues and moral ideals.
Recommendation #15: It is recommended that the State of the
Union message be directed to Eleanor and Joe Q. Public.
They are the audience, and the ultimate members of the
coalitions the President will need to accomplish his goals
and visions.
The Congressional Coalitions
Currently, many segments of the American public may be confused as to
which party controls the House. There is a general feeling, accord-
ing to the polls, that Congress is doing a better job than it was,
perhaps partly due to Republican control. However, it would be
politically astute to mention in the speech that the Senate is
controlled by the Republican Party and the House by the Democratic
Party.
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-12-
For Congress generally, preserving and extending coalitions is a
question of appealing to mostly conservatives and mostly Southerners.
Seventeen of the 20 who supported the President on all four roll
calls on budget and tax legislation were from the South, as were 9 of
11 who voted with us three of the four and 13 of 16 who voted with us
two of the four times.
Great care must be taken not to offend any Democratic members of our
House coalitions. This could be difficult in a time when we are
sounding the battle cry for the 1982 elections. On the other hand,
the bulk of our Democratic support comes from the South, and most of
the "boll weevils" are from safe Democratic districts. About half of
these Southern Democrats are from Democratic districts and can easily
do as they please, while the other half represent potential Republi-
can districts. Thus, there is the two-fold dilemma of not appearing
too partisan for the "backwoods boll weevils" from Democratic dis-
tricts, while determining whether or not to contest a strong suppor-
ter's district. The prospect cannot be discounted, no matter how
slim, of persuading a few conservative Democrats to switch parties.
In the drive to gain control over the House, there has been much ado
over the 17 shifting seats. These alone will not get us even half-
way toward control; in fact, the absolute best we can hope for among
these seats is a net gain of 12. A gain of 8 to 10 is more realis-
tic, perhaps. Almost all of these seats will be predetermined for
one party or the other, anyway.
The real political focus for the State of the Union message should be
on the industrial states of the East and Great Lakes areas. In these
states are found the vast majority of seats which have a realistic
potential of changing hands. Most of the vulnerable Republicans are
there, and they must be defended if we are to register even modest
gains, let alone control. Most importantly, the bulk of Democrats
who represent Republican districts, and who did not support the Presi-
dent, are there. It is in this group that GOP hopes for control lay.
These are mostly urban or suburban seats with high percentages of
Catholics, ethnics, working people, and unemployed.
In a state such as New York, due to momentous reapportionment, as
many as 12 seats are capable of switching parties. In similar
states, the numbers are also high: New Jersey - 9, Pennsylvania - 9,
Ohio - 7, and Michigan - 7. This is not to say that there are not
other significant battle grounds. However, most are in the nature of
side shows.
Clearly, center stage belongs to the old industrial states if we are
to register significant gains in the House. Thus, the speech must
not only be a statement of the President's beliefs and programs, it
must also be tailored to these older industrial states.
Recommendation #16: It is recommended that the political
focus in the State of the Union message be certain to appeal
to the industrial States of the East and Midwest, since
these areas possess the greatest potential for preserving
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-13-
and expanding needed coalitions by defending vulnerable
Republicans, and for winning Democratic-held seats. It is
further recommended that care be taken not to destroy
coalitions developed during 1981.
GOAL NO.3 - TO SET THE TONE AND PACE FOR POLICY FOCUS AND STRATEGY OF
THE PRESIDENT'S LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS AND STRATEGIC PLAN
To complement his visionary remarks on the "state and future of the
Union", the President should set forth a limited number of relatively
specific recommendations that link the coming year to his actions
during the first year in office. The tone should be that of a leader
providing the guidance and direction appropriate for coordinating the
efforts of many individuals, groups, and activities. There must be
toughness for those who better respond to this type of direction.
There must be understanding and compassion for those who need this
from a leader. There must be analytic thoughtfulness and logic for
those who require these in leadership dicta. And, there must be
political reasoning and focus for those who expect, and even demand
it.
Recommendation #17: It is recommended that the pace
proposed by the President be one of continued intensity in
working on the major Administration policy areas and goals
of economic recovery and national security strengthening.
It is also recommended that he propose increasing the
activity on adjusting the Administration policy areas and
goals impacted by the many changes in the size and scope of
the Federal government initiated during 1981. The message
must communicate to the public, Congress, Federal, State and
local government officials that the President and his team
will manage the major changes in government they have
initiated.
As previously recommended, the Fiscal Year 1983 budget message and
subsequent legislative proposals (in February or March) should serve
as the detailed written references for the State of the Union mes-
sage. Thus, in this part of the speech the President should really
only outline his agenda. The topics included should be those the
President sincerely believes must be attended to by Congress and the
Administration. This is the part of the speech in which visual aids
would be quite impactful, except the logistics may be too difficult
to arrange.
a. Economic Recovery - This policy area must be explained first, and
should include a review and brief status report of each of the major
goals i.e. budget reduction, tax cuts, regulatory relief, stability
of monetary policy, and waste and fraud elimination. The President
might hit hard on why this is needed at this time, recalling how bad
things were a year ago, and why any additional delay only makes it
more difficult and the nation more vulnerable. Some reflection on
the "Dunkirk" analogy might be appropriate. The management aspects
of economic recovery should also be stressed, since the Fall, 1981
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-14-
initiatives in this area may have had some impact. Regardless, the
President must provide some evaluation of the results, and make
reference to more hopeful and realistic economic expectations.
Evaluation of the President's initiatives and policies in connection
with the economic recovery program will most likely be based on a
wide-range of judgements about issues and events. However, there are
several basic indicators which are fundamental reference points and
which could be adopted for general evaluation purposes, both inter-
nally. and externally. The following are suggested as those the
Administration should propose to monitor more closely than others,
and which the President might use in the State of the Union message:
1. Overall Economic Recovery
- Growth of national income (GNP in real terms)
- Total number of persons employed (a goal of 13 million
new jobs)
- Level of inflation (both CPI and deflator)
- Annual housing starts and domestic auto sales
- Rate of increase in productivity
2. Reduction of the Growth of Government
- Quarterly estimate of deficit in national income terms
- Total federal civilian employment
- Annual rate of the budget deficit
3. Regulatory Relief
- Level of paperwork burden
- Savings in regulatory costs
- Imposition of new regulations
4. Monetary Policy
- Growth of money supply
- Level of interest on federal borrowing
- Housing interest rates
It is important to have a base period for these measures.
Recommendation #18: It is recommended that the President
review the major goals of the economic recovery program,
that he make strong arguments as to why his actions in this
program are needed now, that he explain in layman's terms
what the budget reduction and tax cut legislation really
mean, that he report on selected economic indicators, and
again in understandable terms describe what they mean, and
that he list with very brief explanations the further
economic steps that are necessary in 1982.
b. Foreign Policy and National Security - These topics can be
mentioned separately or together. The President must stress that the
state of our Union is closely linked to the state of the larger Union
- the World. And, he must point out that in this larger context, we
still stand first and foremost for PEACE. Unless there are signifi-
cant international problems that confront us, concentration should be
on the President's establishment of positive relationships with our
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-15-
true international friends and allies. Special mention should be
made of North American neighbors Canada and Mexico.
Defense initiatives and budgets, and their relationships to economic
recovery, must not be skirted, but should be met head-on. If Con-
gressional support is pending on any defense decisions or policies,
these might be mentioned. On foreign policy, he should emphasize the
twin themes of Peace and Respect. Peace is important because of the
importance of the issue among women voters. Trouble spots might be
listed if they can show that we have preserved the peace and gained
or held respect.
Recommendation #19: It is recommended that the President
remind the audience that our country stands for peace, and
stress the positive aspects of our relationships with
friendly nations, purposely omitting any other specific
policy than being a good partner to those countries that
respect us and our ways.
Recommendation #20: It is recommended that the President
explain in direct terms the major initiatives aimed at
strengthening the nation's defenses, especially those with
high price tags. The major stress should be that they are
needed for peace, not war. Care should be exercised in
using comparisons with the Soviet Union military strength.
C. Social Renewal - This major policy area of the President's
Strategic Plan should also be linked to economic recovery. It should
be stressed that social programs are not being overlooked so much as
they are being re-examined. And, since the President does not wish
to appear insensitive to social concerns, he will ensure that the
policies and goals adopted are those which will provide the right
protection for the most people.
Social security, housing and health care must still be financed;
however, the responsibilities should be refocused away from the idea
that there is an unlimited federal government bank account from which
to draw. Unemployment and welfare are still issues we must all work
at, speak out on, and do something about; but the Federal government
cannot provide all the solutions. Federalism and voluntarism,
shifting the scene of the truly innovative public action programs to
States and local governments and private individuals and institu-
tions, must occur. The improvement of personal safety and confidence
in the future of the social fabric of the nation must be reinstilled,
and these should not be the responsibility of only a few. And, the
development and respect for American values must persist as we
continue struggling with our own future - we can't stop the world to
get off.
Recommendation #21: It is recommended that the President
stress that the Administration is still laboring at restruc-
turing the social programs that are for the truly needy, but
that help is needed from other levels of government and
private individuals and organizations. He should also link
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-16-
the success of this reexamination of social renewal to the
success of economic recovery.
d. National Resources - The enhancement and management of our na-
tional resources - the labor force, natural resources, business and
industry, and government - is vital to the success of economic
recovery. This major policy area should also be cited as one in
which some refocusing will occur. Especially in the areas of improv-
ing the work force, by stressing that people become more proficient
and skilled with each passing generation; increasing the avail-
ability of the needed natural resources such as food and energy
supplies; modernizing our business and industry, so that people are
again satisfied that our places of work are indeed worthy of the
workers who spend great parts of their lives there; and, of much
importance, ensuring that with less government there is better gover-
nance, and that government management is improved to the point that
it again gains the confidence of the people who support it through
taxes.
Recommendation #22: It is recommended that the President
make brief mention of goals for enhancement of national
resources, and that it be pointed out that they are directly
linked to economic recovery as both beneficiaries and
determinants.
Some care must be exercised in these latter two areas, C. and d.
above, that the speech does not begin to sound like a listing of
something for everyone. This is not in keeping with the President's
intent of less government - better governance.
POST-ADDRESS ACTIVITY
For media purposes, some attention should be given to the time slot.
All four time zones should view the speech in either prime time,
access, or news. We should encourage greater coverage by cable and
radio, plus major independents, so as to provide a better chance of
blocking other programs. We must not pre-empt a highly-rated show,
or an on-going show such as a movie or sporting event, if possible.
We should not go much over 30 minutes. Some networks will cut back
to regular programming quickly, while others will not. The time
frame should be close to the half-hour so that a network has the
option of not pre-empting the next time slot.
We might consider a delayed broadcast for Alaska and Hawaii, other-
wise the speech will be at 4:00 p.m. for some. We might consider
greater foreign coverage if the world situation justifies it.
An analysis of newspaper coverage of past State of the Union addres-
ses indicates that newspaper coverage lags after one or two days
unless special effort is made to keep one or more issues alive. Some
advance information might be provided columnists and analysts, so
that they have ample time to prepare their more thorough and thought-
ful commentaries.
(UNCLASSIFIED/SENSITIVE)
-17-
Comments by Republicans afterwards must be carefully orchestrated.
We must be ready immediately to respond to Democratic criticism.
Thus, the White House must monitor the instant Democratic rebuttals,
and have responses ready by 11 p.m. EST news broadcasts. This means
press availability of Baker, Michel, and others half an hour after
the speech is completed.
We must expect some press criticism. However, press reaction will
die down after only a day, except for the little-read editorial page.
It may be possible to orchestrate an extra day's coverage by having
prominent people (supporters) continue to comment on it for a few
days.
Recommendation #23: It is recommended that the communica-
tions package be prepared sufficiently in advance so that
the media are most effectively able to provide detailed,
specific coverage of the speech, and that post-address
activities are well coordinated.
COMMITMENT
As a concluding comment, if there is not sufficient support for the
notion that in January, 1982 the country will need and should receive
from the President the most inspirational and assuring message
possible, then it would be unwise to expend more than minimum re-
sources in preparation of the State of the Union message. In fact, a
lead might be taken from President Truman in which he, in one year,
delivered only a written message, which included the budget with his
state of the Union message. These were read by the clerk, as is the
custom, to a very uninterested and ill-attended session.
On the other hand, if we wish to leave a sustained and lingering
aftereffect that would be of historical significance for President
Ronald Reagan, the wherewithal should be applied to putting together
a first-class bit of staff work and speechwriting. That notwith-
standing, the task of turning the ship of state around, and applying
power in a different direction has proceeded so rapidly through a
very complex set of political and procedural stages that one could
not excuse even the most enlightened citizen of needing a box score
on what has occurred. And of most importance is, that they deserve
that it come from their "communicator-in-chief", whom they must grow
more to trust and respect every day.
Recommendation #24: It is strongly recommended that the
President's 1982 State of the Union Message be a statesman-
like, inspirational message which receives first-rate
attention because of its national, political significance,
or that it be simply a written message compiled by OMB and
sent forward without waste of the President's precious time.
(what!?
9/4/81
keep
THE NEXT 90 DAYS
(til State of Union)
1) PROBLEMS
Continued high interest rates and financial market
troubles, with possibility of public and Congressional
erosion of support for economic program;
The need to identify and propose major domestic program
cuts beyond those previously contemplated- with
possibility of accusations ranging from bad faith to
bad forecasting to bad policy;
Recession;
The continuing uncertainty re social security;
The potential loss of "focus" as postponed issues move
forward, as patience with "the economic issue" declines,
as foreign visits and visitors come and go, etc.;
The potential loss of the appearance of Presidential
power if AWACS Congressional situation is not reversed;
The likely erosion of the uniformity of support among
moderate Republicans in the Congress, as election year
nears;
The potential loss of the uniformity of support among
Cabinet officials, as deeper cuts are required and as
they become "captive" or interested in moving into new
areas of visibility or both;
The likely press effort to make trouble with some
combination of Presidential style, troika style, relative
distribution of power and influence within troika and
between troika and others;
The potential erosion of public support for the President
as the Carter contrast is further behind, as the "honeymoon"
passes, as the economic situation fails to improve, as the
"social safety net" may seem threatened, as good luck
may not persist
;
The likely rise of internal and some external tensions
due to all the above--along with the media's tendency to
highlight and compound such tensions; and
(Others
)
2
2) ELEMENTS OF THE SOLUTION (in part)
The appearance of order and control--hence the need for
themes and a 90 day "plan," to be discussed here today;
--Continued effective development of legislative strategy
(especially for "Fall offensive," Social Security, AWACS,
Missile-Bomber, Clean Air);
--Troika solidarity;
--Presidential briefing sessions per prior discussion;
--Small group, off-the-record Presidential press get togethers;
3) ISSUES RE THE 90-DAY PLAN
a) What themes?
economic recovery phase II ("fall offensive")
private initiative??
what re "social renewal"??
what re foreign policy
given Cancun
given visits
given legislative issues
b) What to show continued humane concern, vision-what surprise
equivalent to "social safety net"?
--handicapped?
--bio-medical research?
--long-term environmental/health research?
--space?
c) What to show fairness?
--defense cuts
--WH cuts
--others largely cross-board 'cept for new sacred cows?
d) What defensive tactics necessary for, e.g.,
--September 19
--El Salvador/Central America
--abortion, etc.
loss of governors' support (?)
--other