Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
66328012
label
Correspondence – April 1983 (7)
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
66328012
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
Correspondence – April 1983 (7)
citationUrl
collections
Records of the White House Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Reagan Administration)
Michael K. Deaver's Correspondence Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
66328012
coverageEndDate
logicalDate
1985-12-31
year
1985
coverageStartDate
logicalDate
1981-01-01
year
1981
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
1cb560c18831881c
ocrText
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
April 15, 1983
Dear Barbara:
Thank you for the nice supportive letter
and all the enclosures. I have taken the
time to look through them, but will have
to wait until later to study them in
depth.
I appreciate your input, and have taken
the liberty of forwarding a copy of your
letter, which is SO complimentary, to
Judge Clark for his information.
Thanks again for taking the time to write.
Sincerely,
MICHAEL K. DEAVER
Assistant to the President
Deputy Chief of Staff
Mrs. John L. Howell
1101 Broad Avenue
Fort Worth, Texas 76107
@e th -Judy Clock
APR 13 1983
Mrs. John L. Howell
1101 Broad Avenue
Fort Worth, Texas 76107
April 11, 1983
Mr. Mike Deaver
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Mike:
I have started this letter several times to no avail. The
reason for not finishing is that I just could not get back to
earth! Having lunch at the White House with President Reagan
and meeting and hearing so many interesting and wonderful people
was quite an experience -- one I'll never forget. So, many, many
thanks to you, Mike, for including me. You are a doll!
Mike, I know you are so busy that you don't have a free mo-
ment, but just in case you do I'm sending you some things to read
and they are very important and reliable! Please do try to digest
them! I know I have no idea as to the scope of the intelligence
gathering under Judge Clark, but some of the little details may
be deleted.
By the way, I like Judge William Clark very much. Can't
help but feel that God has put his hand in this "deal" when he
has given this country two great men such as President Reagan
and Judge Clark! This is why I feel that this country can and
will be saved -- but not without a struggle!
Am enclosing an article in today's paper -- you can judge
for yourself how bitter everything is in Texas politics! It is
so sad -- but it is not without a reason. As the liberal faction
has stepped on and ignored the conservatives beyond belief. Mind
you, I am not for violence nor am I for pushing people to violence!!
When I say that "they" have "stepped on" -- it is with half truths,
double dealing and vicious lies. All are very difficult to deal
with because you find out about them months later and the damage
has been done! I might add that most of their philosophy and
actions have been diametrically opposite of President Reagan
and you. Another bad characteristic is that they are so afraid
Mr. Mike Deaver
Page 2
April 11, 1983
of loosing "power" -- which is so silly as those jobs are tough
and no fun. All most people are concerned about is getting the
job that is so vitally important done! That is, to turn this
country around; back to God, family, constitutional government
and free enterprise! Not one for the banks, not one for the oil
industry, not one for the unions, not one for the blacks and
minorities, or any other special group, but for America!
I will bring this civics lesson to a conclusion, but not
without another thank you and best wishes to your Carolyn!
All my love,
Barbara
Reproduced at the Ronald Reagan Library
Saturday morning
Red Sox
Omni set
deleat
Omni
for big
Rangers
launch
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Saturday,
April
9,
1983
***
PRICE 25 $
Upham puts
2 conditions
on resigning
By JACK 2. SMITH
Star-Telegrain Writer
MIDLAND - Texas Republican
"I don't feel he should
Party chairman Chet Upham told
GOP leaders in Midland on Friday
have the prerogative
night that he would resign his posi-
tion if certain conditions are met.
of naming his
Upham presided over an infor
successor, but I can 't."
mai but tense meeting that he
abruptly ended when one woman
-
Dorothy Doehne
slapped another across the face.
Upham has been under fire since
That at least "48 to 50" of the 64
the Republicans lost all statewide
races in the Nov. 2 general election.
State Republican Executive Com-
Most of those opposing Upham are
mittee members support George
longtime loyalists of President
Strake, a Houston independent oil-
Reagan who have been considera-
man and former secretary of state,
lesssupportive of Vice President
as his successor.
George Bush.
. That executive committee vice
Upham, of Mineral Wells, stated
chairwoman Dorothy Doehne of
two key conditions for resigning:
Please see Upham on Page 2
Upham wants
Reproduced at the Ronald Reagan Library
Continued from Page 1
San Antonio, an opponent of Up-
ham's, resign her position.
"I think this is a tragedy that we cannot get
Doehne refused to say whether
shewill resign, but she called Up-
together as grown-up adults and conduct the
ham's offer unfair.
Upham abruptly declared the
business of this party."
meeting of committee members ad-
- Republican National Committee member Ernest Angelo
journed after Peggy Brandon, wife
of GOP executive committee mem-
ber Jim Brandon of Amarillo,
night meeting that no further ac-
a disgrace."
slapped another Amarillo woman,
tion could be taken on the chair-
One executive committee mem-
Shirley Costello.
manship until Doehne decides
ber was overheard remarking to an-
"I brought it on," Costello said. "I
whether to resign. If she agrees to
other, "We need a course from Miss
said, 'Dummy is speaking.' Asked
who she was referring to when she
resign, the next step would be to
Manners."
determine whether there are suffi-
Doehne, questioned after the
said "dummy," Costello replied:
cient pledges for Strake.
meeting, said she does not know
"Anybody in the room who was
Upham said Strake told him that
when she will decide whether to
speaking against Chet."
he would accept the chairmanship
resign. But she added that she
Brandon is among those who have
if he could get at least 48 to 50
thinks Upham's conditions for re-
called for Upham's resignation.
pledges of support. Party members
signing are "a little on the unfair
Costello said she attended the
were thrown into turmoil by the
side."
meeting as a guest. She is active in
abrupt, dramatic confrontation
don't feel he should have the
Republican Party affairs, but is not
a GOP executive committee mem-
that ended the meeting.
prerogative of naming his succes-
Republican National Committee
sor. but I can't." she said.
ber.
member Ernest Angelo of Midland
Upham said the soonest a new
Executive committee members
shouted to members, "I think this is
chairman and vice chairman could
were to meet formally at 9 a.m. Sat-
a tragedy that we cannot get togeth-
be selected would be in at-least 10
urday.
er as grown-up adults and conduct
days because of party rules on meet-
Upham said after the Friday
the business of this party, In fact, it's
ing notices.
Confidential,ars
EARLY WARNING
Issue 1, February 1983
Living with Andropov
Coming to terms with the new Soviet leadership now
and held a succession of low-grade jobs as a boatman, a
poses the overriding foreign policy test for the Reagan
telegraph operator and an assistant film projectionist. He
Administration and its allies. Much of the U.S. news
attended courses at the State University in Petrozavod-
reporting on the career and personality of Yuri Andropov
sky, the capital of Soviet Karelia, but dropped out, and
has been a melange of wishful thinking, dubious tittle-
was largely remembered by fellow students as an in-
tattle retailed by East European emigres with no first-
former for the Komsomol, the Communist Party youth
hand knowledge of the man, and disinformation
organization.
calculated to create a reassuring image of the former
Andropov began his rise from obscurity by making
KGB chief as a' 'closet liberal" who loves to curl up with a
himself useful to local Party organizers in Karelia, an
glass of scotch and read American popular novels to the
area on the border of Finland with a sizable Finnish-
strains of Glenn Miller.
speaking population that is today a Soviet "autonomous"
But a study of Andropov's background, his record as
republic. He came to the attention of Otto Kuusinen, a
Chairman of the KGB, and the means by which he was
veteran Comintern agitator of Finnish origin who
able to thrust himself into Brezhnev's vacant chair, sug-
dreamed of becoming the satrap of Finland and the
gests that he is the most formidable Soviet opponent the
whole of Scandinavia once the Red Army had overrun
West has had to face. Andropov has not only repeatedly
them. Kuusinen's ambitions were thwarted by the valiant
proved his ruthless efficiency in crushing dissent inside
resistance the Finns put up when the Soviets-taking ad-
the Soviet Bloc; as KGB chief, he personally directed a
vantage of their non-aggression pact with Hitler-attack-
vast expansion of covert operations designed to weaken,
ed them without warning in the Winter War of 1939-40.
divide and deceive the West. This "active measures"
Kuusinen was appointed Prime Minister of a puppet Fin-
campaign will now be intensified, with the primary ob-
nish "government", but the Soviets failed to conquer
jective of decoupling the United States from its European
Finland, and had to settle for stealing a large chunk of
allies.
real estate which was added to Soviet Karelia.
The Soviets are already deeply involved-through
Kuusinen's wife later said of him that "the true key to
front organizations and direct funding-in the "peace
his personality was hatred." After a domestic squabble,
movements" that are seeking to block the deployment of
he denounced his wife and son as "anti-Soviet", and they
Pershing-2s and Cruise missiles in Western Europe. Ac-
were dragged off to labor camps, where his son died of
cording to our intelligence sources, the KGB has been
TB. He engaged in murderous vendettas against his
ordered to "pull out all the stops" in the effort to ensure
fellow Finns, and the secret police organized mass depor-
the defeat of the ruling Christian Democrat-Free
tations of Finnish-speaking Karelians to the Gulag. The
Democrat alliance in the West German elections on
young Yuri Andropov was one of those who helped to
March 6, and of Britain's Conservative Prime Minister,
"defend socialism" in this way during and after the Se-
Margaret Thatcher. (Mrs. Thatcher is expected to call an
cond World War.
election before the end of this year.) The long-range
With Kuusinen's patronage, Andropov became First
Soviet objective is to smash the NATO alliance, leaving
Secretary of the Karelian Komsomol (1940-44). By his
Western Europe vulnerable to "Finlandization," while
own account, he was active at this time in organizing
the United States would be isolated. That Soviet goal has
supplies for the Soviet troops at the front-one of whose
been constant since NATO was founded in 1949. It has
commanders was Nikolai Orgarkov, today the Chief of
never been so close to attainment.
the General Staff (see below)-and in helping the par-
Vital clues as to how the Soviets can be expected to
behave in the next phase of the East-West conflict can be
tisan bands. His chief responsibility, in fact, was to help
the secret police and the brutal military counter-intel-
gleaned from Andropov's earlier career and, in par-
ticular, from the initiatives he took as head of the KGB.
ligence organization, SMERSH, to hunt down and liq-
uidate supposed "enemies of the state." As a reward for
Our account is based on privileged information from re-
cent KGB defectors and intelligence sources in several
Western countries, as well as an exhaustive analysis of
Russian-language material dating back to the early
1940s.
CONTENTS
The new Soviet leadership
1
Early career
Bulgarian connections
6
France's new spy-chief
6
Andropov was born in 1914, in the small town of Nagut-
Castro builds a mini-Cuba
7
skaia, near Stavropol, the son of an illiterate railroad
Focus Latin America
8
worker. His own education was patchy. He attended a
technical school, specializing in waterways transport,
PAGE 2
EARLY WARNING
these services, he was subsequently promoted Second
engaged in cutting his Kremlin rivals down to size. But
Secretary of the Karelian Communist Party (1947-51).
Andropov was never a member of the tight fraternity of
Brezhnev loyalists-the Brezhnev Banda, as they are call-
Stalin's enforcer
ed in Moscow-who had served with the then General
Secretary in the Ukraine and Moldavia in the 1940s and
1950s. Andropov's most important ally in 1967 was
Andropov's experience as one of Stalin's enforcers on the
Mikhail Suslov, chief Party ideologist, whose death in
Finnish border was extremely helpful to him when, after
January 1982 set in motion the critical stage of the strug-
a short stint in Moscow (1951-53) working in the Central
gle for the Brezhnev succession.
Committee Secretariat, he was posted to the Soviet Em-
bassy in Budapest. In the space of a year, he rose from the
rank of "adviser" to counsellor and then Ambassador to
KGB chief
Hungary. He held this post until 1957, and was thus the
key man in place in 1956, when the Hungarians made
Andropov was Chairman of the KGB for 15
their abortive bid for freedom.
years-longer than any of his predecessors While head of
Andropov showed his flair for deception in the way
the KGB, he was promoted to full membership in the
that he conned the members of the ill-fated Imre Nagy
Politburo, an honor accorded to only one previous secret
government with the idea that Moscow was ready to
police chief-the notorious Lavrenty Beria. As the Party
enter into genuine negotiations over independence for
man appointed to supervise the KGB, Andropov's room
Hungary. On November 1, 1956, he told the Nagy
for maneuver was circumscribed by the professionals in
government that Moscow was prepared to discuss the
the second echelon. The First Deputy Chairman of the
complete withdrawal of Soviet troops-an outright lie in-
KGB, General Tsvigun, and other Deputy Chairmen,
tended to lull the Hungarians into letting their guard
such as General Tsinev and General Chebrikov (of whom
drop, so that the way would be smoothed for a Red Army
more later), furthermore, were regarded as members of
invasion and a KGB-orchestrated purge in Budapest.
the Brezhnev Banda.
Two days later, Andropov lured Hungary's Defense
However, it is possible to credit Andropov with a large
Minister, Pal Maleter, to a banquet at the Soviet Em-
measure of personal responsibility for a number of in-
bassy, on the pretense of "further negotiations." After
itiatives taken to reshape and expand KGB operations.
Maleter arrived, KGB chief Ivan Serov burst in with a
For example:
team of heavily armed security men and placed the
Internal repression. Andropov set up the Fifth Chief
Hungarian under arrest.
Directorate of the KGB, which specializes in suppressing
Similarly, after Nagy and other Hungarian govern-
internal dissent. In keeping with his own publicly ex-
ment leaders took refuge in the Yugoslav Embassy in
pressed characterization of Russian dissidents as "mental-
Budapest, Andropov duped them into abandoning their
ly ill," "religious or nationalist fanatics who only serve
sanctuary. On Andropov's instructions, the newly install-
the interests of foreign parties", Andropov employed a
ed Soviet puppet, Janos Kadar, promised Nagy that he
variety of new techniques to silence internal critics. He
and his colleagues could go home without fearing
enthusiastically began the incarceration of dissidents in
reprisals. They left the Yugoslav Embassy on November
mental hospitals where they could be guinea pigs for ex-
22, 1956 in a special bus, under guarantees of safe-
periments with psychotropic drugs. Through KGB agents
conduct-and were promptly ambushed by the KGB.
provocateurs and smear operations, he sought to divide
Imre Nagy was deported to Rumania, and subsequently
and discredit leading dissidents both at home and
executed.
abroad. (He had a personal hand in the vast campaign to
In the context of current negotiations with the Soviets,
ruin Solzhenitsyn's reputation in the West by represent-
it is worth recalling how Andropov honored his pledges
ing him as a "fascist.") He employed similar tactics
in 1956.
against the Solidarity movement in Poland.
Andropov was rewarded for his success in stifling the
Active measures. One of Andropov's very first actions,
Hungarian revolt by being appointed to a top Party job in
after he moved into the KGB Chairman's office at 2,
Moscow-as chief of the department responsible for
Dzherzhinsky Square on May 26, 1967, was to call in
liaison with the ruling Communist Parties. His old patron
General Ivan Agayants, the wily chief of Department
in Karelia, Otto Kuusinen, again seems to have been in-
"D," the section responsible for disinformation and
strumental in advancing his fortunes. Kuusinen,
covert operations to influence Western governments and
previously a sycophantic Stalinist, had ingratiated
manipulate the Western media. (While based in Paris,
himself with Khrushchev by lending loud support to his
Agayants had been highly successful in orchestrating
"de-Stalinization" campaign and was himself promoted
Gaullist paranoia against the United States, thus driving
Party Secretary and Presidium (as the Politburo was then
a wedge into the NATO alliance.) Andropov told Agay-
called) Member shortly after Andropov returned to
ants that his Department would be given the higher
Moscow in 1957.
status of a KGB Directorate, and that its head would
Andropov steadily expanded his power base inside the
assume the rank of a Deputy Chief of the First Chief
Party Secretariat until, in 1967, he was appointed to suc-
Directorate, responsible for all foreign intelligence
ceed Semichastny as Chairman of the KGB and was
operations. The budget and the manpower made
elevated to the status of Candidate Member of the all-
available for disinformation and political influence
powerful Politburo. His appointment as chief of the
operations against the West was greatly expanded.
world's largest security and intelligence service was of
According to the CIA, Agayants' old department, now
course approved by Leonid Brezhnev, who was now
known as Service "A" ("A" for "Active Measures") has a
FEBRUARY 1983
PAGE 3
headquarters staff of about 200, and is one of the most im-
many, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Cuba. Another of
portant offensive instruments of Soviet policy. "Active
Andropov's initiatives as KGB chief was the very ag-
measures" operations designed to shape Western
gressive use of these surrogates. For example, at his direc-
behavior are estimated to cost the Soviets about $4 billion
tion the KGB provided a special subsidy to enable Cuba's
a year, and their effectiveness is evident from the recent
DGI and Departamento de America to expand their
growth of the unilateral disarmament movement in
operations abroad. As a result, according to Western
Western countries. In addition to the KGB, many other
analysts, Cuba today has the fourth largest foreign intel-
Soviet state and Party organizations-notably the Inter-
ligence service in the world, after the KGB, the GRU
national Department (ID) and International Information
(Soviet military intelligence) and the CIA, and the
Department (IID) of the CPSU-play a role in active
Cuban DGI carries out Moscow's work in places ranging
measures. The fact that Brezhnev's successor is a man
from Angola to Suriname, from New York to Aden.
who long ago recognized the unique importance of disin-
Similarly, the Bulgarians have been used by the KGB as
formation and subversive operations augurs a further ex-
contract killers.
pansion of Soviet active measures against the West
It is interesting to note that (perhaps as a result of the
designed to discredit and neutralize opponents of the
public scandal over the attempted assassination of the
USSR.
Pope) the Czech secret service is now being relied on
Using the church. Within the field of active measures,
more and more heavily by the KGB as a link with inter-
Andropov recognized early on the need to work with
national terrorist groups. A West European intelligence
"liberal" and church organizations that were unlikely to
source claims that a key official of the Czech StB, Major
be identified with the Soviet Union and may, indeed,
Pokorny, visited Sofia in December to negotiate the
have been strongly anti-Soviet at the outset. During An-
transfer of some terrorist support facilities from Bulgaria
dropov's time as KGB chief, Soviet covert attempts to in-
to Prague.
fluence church organizations greatly increased, and two
Industrial espionage. Andropov also presided over a
years ago-in a major article that represented a basic
rapid expansion of scientific and technical espionage
modification in Marxist-Leninist doctrine-Pravda open-
against the West, and the KGB was able to record several
ly declared that "the USSR supports the Marxist-Leninist
coups in this area, notably involving computer
thesis of the possibility and necessity of joint actions of
technology. We will publish a detailed expose of Soviet
working people, atheists, and believers for the revolu-
industrial espionage in the near future.
tionary reconstruction of the old world. That is a long
Higher status for KGB. Finally, it should be noted
stride beyond the hoary Communist denunciations of
that, under Andropov, the place of the KGB in the Soviet
religion as the opium of the people and the pay-off, for
power structure was radically redefined. On July 5,
the Soviets, has been considerable. Over the past year,
1978, the KGB's official name was changed from "Com-
for example, the Dutch security service, the BVD, has
mittee of State Security Under the Council of Ministers"
assembled an impressive body of evidence of the direct
to "USSR Committee of State Security." The change may
manipulation of church-based "peace" groups in Holland
appear merely cosmetic, but its significance was that it
by KGB agents.
formalized the role of the KGB, not as an organ of the
Terrorism. The KGB has never been averse to practic-
Soviet state, but as the sword and shield of the Com-
ing assassination and other terrorist methods, and such
munist Party. This interpretation is confirmed by a Cen-
operations were conducted under Andropov's chairman-
tral Committee statement in 1980 to the effect that "the
ship with his direct authorization. The facts of KGB in-
KGB is the political organ of the Communist Party."
volvement in the attempted assassination of Pope John
What does this mean? It means that the KGB is seen both
Paul II, via the Bulgarian secret service, are at last being
as the Party's means of self-preservation and as its main
acknowledged in the American media; we are able to add
offensive instrument for converting the non-Communist
some new revelations in the next article. But it is worth
world to the Soviet conception of socialism.
recalling that the attempt on the Pope's life was in no
way an aberration for the KGB. For example, a recent
KGB defector to Britain has provided chapter and verse
Andropov seizes power
on how the KGB murdered the former President Amin of
Afghanistan to open the way for a Soviet puppet regime
Viewed from afar, the transition from Brezhnev to An-
and the occupation of the country by Soviet forces (whose
dropov appeared remarkably smooth as well as excep-
current strength is now estimated at 152,000, con-
tionally swift-within two days of Brezhnev's death on
siderably more than the figure of 100,000 that generally
November 10, 1982, Andropov was consecrated as the
appears in the press). "Wet operations"-including
new General Secretary. Since then, he has been able to
assassination and sabotage--are the specialty of a special
move some of his own men into key positions, aided con-
KGB department that now operates under the direction
siderably by the advanced years and ailing health of
of Directorate S, the Illegals Directorate. Some Western
many of the men in the Politburo and the Central Com-
analysts believe that this department had a hand in the
mittee.
mysterious helicopter crash in which the popular Por-
In fact, there are indications that a bitter struggle for
tuguese Social Democrat leader, Francisco Sa Carneiro,
the succession was being waged behind the scenes for
was killed on December 4, 1980.
about a year before Brezhnev succumbed to his terminal
Aggressive use of satellites. In running terrorist opera-
stroke, and that Andropov made full use of his KGB
tions, and in many other fields of activity, the KGB relies
dossiers in elbowing his competition aside. The corrup-
heavily on surrogates and subcontractors-especially the
tion scandal involving Brezhnev's own daughter Galina
secret services of satellite countries such as East Ger-
(whose husband was a Deputy Minister of Interior) and a
PAGE 4
EARLY WARNING
colorful cast including her flashy lover, a diamond thief
might of the Soviet armed forces." Andropov has reason
called Boris ("The Gypsy") Buryatia and the Director of
to be concerned that the Soviet generals may be bidding
the Moscow Circus may have been made public by An-
for a larger place in the political system, and there is
dropov in order to show that Brezhnev's grip was slipping
reason to believe that he gave various assurances to Mar-
and to intimidate his Kremlin colleagues with a glimpse
shal Ogarkov, the Chief of the General Staff, in order to
of how their peccadilloes might be used against them.
buy the generals' approval for his assumption of the top
As a result, Andropov seems to have succeeded in
Party job. These assurances probably included (a) a
avoiding a protracted power struggle following
guarantee that Ogarkov would succeed the aging Dimitri
Brezhnev's death. By contrast, it might be recalled that it
Ustnov, a civilian, as Defense Minister and (b) that there
took Stalin six years to consolidate his power after Lenin's
would not be significant defense cuts. In addition, there
death; it took Khrushchev five years to emerge supreme
is an elaborate KGB and Party control structure designed
after Stalin's demise; and it took Brezhnev all of eight
to keep tight guiding reins on the military. However, in
years to establish his ascendancy over the troika that
the event of major social disturbances inside the Soviet
replaced Khrushchev.
Union, Andropov may face a political threat from a com-
However, first impressions may be deceptive. In assess-
bination of the high command and his opponents inside
ing the new power set-up in Moscow, it should be
the Party.
remembered:
1.
Andropov will be 69 this year, and that his health is
Key lieutenants
not good. He is suffering from heart disease, and
some Western analysts believe that his very poor eyesight
is a symptom of diabetes. West German delegates who
Further sweeping changes in the composition of the Polit-
accompanied Hans-Jochen Vogel to Moscow in January
buro and the Soviet government are in store, and may
reported that the new Soviet General Secretary seemed
come to pass in a matter of months. Here are some of the
pale and drawn, and staggered, rather than walked,
key men to watch:
across the room to receive his guests-although, in the
Geidar Aliyev, born in Soviet Azerbaijan in 1923,
meeting itself, he seemed sharp-witted as ever.
has been elevated by Andropov to full membership of the
Politburo and the post of First Deputy Prime Minister.
For 28 years, Aliyev was a career KGB officer, before
2.
The Soviet leadership as a whole is a gerontocracy,
becoming Party boss in Azerbaijan. According to a West
and most of the familiar faces-including Andro-
European intelligence source, Aliyev let slip (at a meeting
pov's-are likely to be replaced within the next 3-5 years
in Baku in June 1982) what could be an important clue to
by a new generation of leaders, probably men in their
a Soviet plan to intervene in Iran after Ayatollah Kho-
mid-50s. Unlike the present elite, many of them will be
meini's death. Aliyev contrasted the "backwardness" of
too young to have fought in the "Great Patriotic War" (at
Iran's Azerbaijanis with the "progress" of their Soviet co-
least in any senior position) or to have achieved impor-
nationalists. He then said that the solution could be for
tant political positions in Stalin's time. They will have
Azerbaijanis on both sides of the border to be "united." If
climbed the Party ladder in a period when the Soviet Un-
his remarks have Andropov's backing, the Soviets may be
ion was not seriously threatened from outside and was
embarked on a plan to take advantage of the confusion
emerging-rapidly, with Brezhnev's breakneck military
that will follow Khomeini's death to attempt a carve-up
build-up-as the foremost military power in the world.
of Iran.
They are likely to be cynical about ideology, but may be
Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov, the Chief of the General
more aggressive than the present generation in pursuing
Staff, may have worked with Andropov as early as the
adventurist policies abroad, because they rose to the top
1940s, when he was stationed on the Karelian front. The
at a time when the Soviets were more powerful, and
most fascinating thing to observe about Ogarkov is that
more confidence of their place in the world, than ever
he was formerly head of the Thirteenth Chief Directorate
before.
of the General Staff, which is responsible for strategic
deception. In other words, he was the key man responsi-
3.
Resentment against Andropov probably still sim-
ble for deceiving the United States about Soviet military
mers among displaced rivals like Konstanin Cher-
programs and for covering up the massive and systematic
nenko (widely believed to have been groomed by Brezh-
Soviet violations of strategic arms accords. He will be an
nev as his successor) and may run deep if-as seems like-
appropriate ally for Andropov, the master of political
ly-he made full use of the intimidatory power of the
deception, in the next phase of the Soviet campaign to
KGB to ensure his emergence as General Secretary.
persuade the West to disarm unilaterally.
Vitaly Fedorchuk succeeded Andropov as head of
the KGB in May last year (when Andropov moved back
The Soviet armed forces have reason to be thankful
4.
to the Party Secretariat to put some apparent distance
to Brezhnev, who devoted about 15 percent of the
between himself and his sinister functions as chief of the
GNP to defense, at the expense of consumers and the
secret police preparatory to succeeding Brezhnev-in
economy in general. Both Brezhnev, in his last year, and
other words, to clean up his act). Andropov has since
Andropov, since taking over, have been careful to make
moved Fedorchuk over to the Interior Ministry and
unusual obeisances to the armed forces. (In his first
charged him with rooting out the flagrant corruption
public statement, Andropov talked of "the invincible
within the Ministry and the militia. Fedorchuk is regard-
PAGE 5
FEBRUARY 1983
ed by Western analysts as an A-grade thug. During
Andropov's targets abroad
World War II, he was a "military chekist," one of the
chiefs of the SMERSH in the Ukraine, where he specializ-
For several months of last year, Soviet foreign policy
ed in rounding up Ukrainian nationalists and others of
seemed to have entered the doldrums. The Soviets did not
doubtful loyalties and organizing mass executions. In
move expeditiously to exploit the Middle East situation
1954-55, Fedorchuk personally arranged the kidnapping
resulting from the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, for exam-
of two East European emigres off the streets in Vienna.
ple, and might have done more to exploit the Falklands
He is a close crony of General Piotr Ivashutin, the head of
war. With Andropov installed as General Secretary, the
the GRU (and a former top KGB man).
whole style and tempo has changed decisively. The
Viktor Chebrikov and Georgiy Tsinëv, respectively
Soviets have already embarked on a new "peace offen-
the Chairman and First Deputy Chairman of the KGB,
sive" intended to derail the NATO plan for the deploy-
are both members of the old Brezhnev mafia-men who
ment of medium-range missiles to offset Russia's 340
worked with the late General Secretary in his early days
SS-20s in Europe. The Soviets are seeking to recoup some
in the Ukraine. Both have clearly made their accom-
of their Middle East losses with a new arms build-up in
modations with Andropov, although he is thought to
Syria and behind-the-scenes efforts to sabotage the
have more trust in Tsinev than in Chebrikov. It is worth
Reagan peace plan. They are openly intervening in West
noting that Tsinëv, like Fedorchuk, is a "military
Germany's election process, adopting a threatening tone
chekist" by professional formation-in other words, a
that could signal increasingly brutal efforts to use the
specialist in spying on the military. Andropov will rely on
threat of military force to make the West Europeans ac-
Tsinëv, as well as on the Chief Political Directorate of the
cede to their political demands.
Soviet Armed Forces (the commissariat) for forewarning
In addition, Andropov is embarked on a new round of
of any plotting among the generals.
diplomacy with China. Whether Western fears of a
Soviet-Chinese detente will be realized remains in doubt.
Soviet prospects
A possible condition for that would be Soviet withdrawal
from Afghanistan, and it is uncertain whether Andropov
would be willing to pay that price-at least until (and
Economic reform is urgently needed in Russia. According
unless) the Soviets establish an alternative land-bridge
to the official figures, the GNP grew by 2.6 percent in
toward the Gulf via Iran. It would be less expensive for
1982; Western experts think that in fact there was zero or
Andropov to offer the Chinese a negotiated settlement in
minus growth. Russia, a large grain exporter under the
Cambodia, involving a coalition government headed by
Tsars, has to expend a large portion of its foreign ex-
Prince Sihanouk in place of the present Vietnamese- and
change on importing cereals. There is a real fear among
Soviet-backed puppet regime.
the Kremlin leaders that shortages of food and consumer
But the options available to Andropov to stymie U.S.
goods could lead to major popular disturbances, perhaps
foreign policy are considerable. The Soviets and the
even on the Polish scale. Strikes reported at large
Cubans are making tremendous inroads in Latin
automobile plants over the past two years are a warning
America. The debt problems of Mexico and Venezuela
flare.
(deepened by OPEC disarray), the political chaos in
The man in charge of agriculture, Gorbachev, is one of
Argentina and the shaky democratic experiments under
the youngest and most vigorous members of the Polit-
way in Bolivia and above all, Brazil, all present them
buro. Effective reform would involve:
with huge new opportunities for mounting a flank attack
(a) Heavy investment in improving rural transporta-
on the United States, beyond the revolutionary upheavals
tion networks.
now shaking Central America.
(b) Decentralization of decision-making.
What makes all these challenges more acute for the
(c) A "Hungarian-style" restoration of incentives for
United States and its allies is the success of the vast opera-
production-something that, given his Budapest ex-
tion that the KGB has mounted, on Andropov's orders, to
perience, Andropov might be expected to know a good
conceal the real nature of what is happening from the
deal about.
Western public through media manipulation and other
But what remains unclear is whether Andropov will be
"active measures." The West has yet to offer an effective
able-or willing-to run the political risk of diverting in-
counter to this hidden offensive.
vestment away from the country's enormous war
The fact that much of the public discussion about An-
machine. Unless he is prepared to do that, economic
dropov in the West has focused on whether or not he will
reform is likely to be still-born, leaving plenty of scope
"maintain detente" must appeal to the former KGB
for rising popular frustration. Apparently anticipating
chief's sense of irony, since he knows that the rhetoric of
this, he has already surrounded himself with experts in
detente was cynically exploited to lull the U.S. into fail-
repression like Fedorchuk, and what could be in store is a
ing to respond to the largest military build-up the world
domestic crackdown of Stalinist proportions.
has ever seen-a build-up that is Brezhnev's enduring
Andropov has made considerable noise about clamping
legacy to the Soviet Union. Andropov is perfectly con-
down on corruption, which is rife throughout the Soviet
scious that, if the Reagan Administration's defense plans
system. This does not mean that he is seriously bent on
are allowed to proceed substantially unobstructed, the
removing the enormous perquisites of the Party
United States will be able to close the defense gap that
elite-that would mean attacking the very heart of the
has opened up by the second half of the 1980s. The
system. He is likely, however, to use the cover of the anti-
Soviets will use every weapon in the arsenal of active
corruption campaign to remove political rivals.
measures to prevent that from coming to pass.
PAGE 6
EARLY WARNING
The Bulgarian connections
In the midst of the uproar over the mounting body of
manifests would describe the cargoes as "cocoa beans."
evidence that Bulgaria's secret service, the Durzhavna
In Sofia, the trucks would be turned over to other drivers
Sigurnost (DS), was directly implicated in the attempt to
for the final leg of the journey-into Turkey, where guns
kill the Pope, Cuba's Interior Minister, Ramiro Valdes,
would be bartered for heroin. Many of the drivers are
paid a five-day visit to Sofia. On December 27, he signed
Arabs, and in Sofia, they congregate at the Vitosha
a cooperation agreement with his Bulgarian counterpart,
Hotel, where Mehmet Ali Agea stayed for 50 days before
KGB-trained Dimitur Stoyanov. In the secret protocols to
trying to kill the Pope.
this agreement, the Cubans and Bulgarians have not only
The Bulgarians are running a complex network of
agreed to exchange intelligence specialists, but also to
commercial organizations whose offices in Western
collaborate more closely in mounting terrorist operations
capitals provide a perfect front for espionage and laundry
against their mutual enemies.
operations. One of these companies, DANUBEX, with a
The Bulgarian DS acts as a proxy for the KGB in a
Paris office at 124 bis Avenue de Villiers, has attracted
broad range of clandestine activities. Early Warning has
the interest of French security, not least because its presi-
unearthed some revealing examples:
dent, Robert Mitterrand, is a brother of France's head of
Operatives of the Bulgarian DS, according to a re-
state. Danubex is involved with two Swiss-registered
cent Soviet defector, are the only East Europeans who
companies:
have free access to the facilities of the ultra-secret depart-
1. PROMOS, whose chief (a Hungarian citizen) is the
ment inside the KGB's Directorate S in Moscow that is
entrusted with "wet operations.' The Bulgarians are used
representative in Switzerland of the Czech arms com-
pany OMNIPOL, which has supplied weapons to the
by the KGB as contract killers.
Irish Republican Army and other terrorists; and
Bulgaria has long been the base for a very lucrative
2. ARDEX, represented by a Swiss lawyer who has set
smuggling operation, and Sofia is the headquarters for a
Turkish mafia involved in importing drugs and other
up local companies for Becir Celenk, the Turkish drug
contraband from Turkey into Western Europe. A share
lord accused of having offered Agea 3m Deutschmarks to
of the profits has been claimed by the DS and is used to
kill the Pope.
finance the purchase of guns for terrorists in Turkey and
Danubex occupies the building in Paris that previously
West Germany. Intelligence sources in Paris have
housed the "transport division" of the Bulgarian Em-
monitored the activities of a Bulgarian company called
bassy. It has no apparent source of income except "loans"
Kintex. Truck drivers working for Kintex have admitted
from Sofia and Moscow, channeled via the Russians'
ferrying arms and ammunition from Antwerp via
favorite bank in France, the Banque Commerciale
Switzerland, Austria and Yugoslavia into Bulgaria. The
d'Europe du Nord.
France's new spychief
vice was becoming increasingly politicized. One of the
few experienced officers who was retained in a key post-
Colonel Singlant, head of counter-intelligence-began
Despite the presence of four Communist ministers in his
cultivating contacts on the political left and raised eye-
government, France's Socialist President François Mitter-
brows when he addressed an audience of West European
rand has taken a tough line on the need to maintain a
intelligence officers and was less than critical about
strong NATO nuclear deterrent, and has been counsel-
Cuba's role in the Third World.
ling the West Germans to follow his example. He has also
President Mitterrand himself became frustrated with
refrained from political interference with the DST,
the DGSE's performance under its new management, let-
which is regarded among other Western intelligence
ting it be known that he considered many of the reports
agencies as the most professional security service in
that were sent up to him to be indistinguishable from
Europe.
newspaper clips.
However, France's foreign intelligence service, the
Marion was finally removed after only 15 months in of-
DGSE (or Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure;
fice and replaced by Admiral Lacoste, who had been
formerly known as the SDECE) has undergone some ma-
originally picked by Alexandre de Marenches, the former
jor shakeups since Mitterrand took office. His first choice
head of the secret service, as his successor. Lacoste is
to head the agency, Pierre Marion, was a friend and
highly regarded as a shrewd realist. He was once chef de
former employee of the President's brother Jacques, an
cabinet to Raymond Barre, the conservative former
aerospace company chairman who once commanded
prime minister. He has already quietly moved out six of
France's force de frappe. Marion was a novice in the es-
the carpetbaggers who came in with Marion. One of his
pionage world; his principal claim to fame was that he
had landed a French helicopter contract with the U.S.
main problems now is to establish a satisfactory working
relationship with the Elysee. He has good reason to be ex-
Coast Guard by underbidding American firms.
tremely worried about leakage of sensitive material to the
Marion began laying about the DGSE with an ax. He
large KGB rezidentura in Paris-or direct to Moscow.
transferred out of the service 48 experienced profes-
Lacoste believes the solution is to report directly to the
sionals. There were soon complaints that the strict com-
President on delicate issues, as Marenches used to report
partmentalization essential for any intelligence service
to Giscard d'Estaing once a week. But direct contact has
was breaking down. There were also charges that the ser-
not yet been accepted by Mitterrand's entourage.
PAGE 7
FEBRUARY 1983
Castro builds a mini-Cuba
In a strategically located former Dutch colony on the
to land the following day, and the Bouterse government
northeast coast of the South American mainland, border-
ordered street rallies to show support for a fellow radical.
ing Brazil, Cuban secret agents are counselling one of the
The rallies fell flat. Returning to the attack, Cyril Daal
continent's most bloody dictatorships on how to main-
organized counter-demonstrations that attracted notably
tain its power through the systematic murder of op-
bigger crowds than the government could mobilize.
ponents. This process has been largely ignored by the
Fearing that this could be the prelude to a full-scale
U.S. media. But, apart from human rights aspects, the
popular uprising against his regime, Bouterse had the
strategic implications could be far-reaching. In addition
labor organizer thrown into jail. But this did not head off
to Nicaragua and Grenada (where the Russians and their
his problems. Buoyed by the strength of anti-Marxist feel-
Cuban subcontractors are constructing major air bases)
ing that had been demonstrated in the opposition to the
Suriname is emerging as yet another staging post for the
Grenadan Prime Minister's visit, civilian leaders in all
Soviet Bloc in Latin America.
walks of life joined together in a "Democratic Associa-
The scene was set in February 1980 when a group of
tion" pledged to lead Suriname back to a constitutional
army plotters headed by Sergeant Desi Bouterse-who
form of government. With only a few minor exceptions,
since promoted himself Lieutenant-Colonel--staged a
all of the country's civic, business, religious and labor
coup. The details of their successful plot had been work-
organizations united under this umbrella.
ed out in close consultation with Armando Ulises
By now Castro and the Americas Department chiefs in
Estrada, then the chief of the huge Cuban intelligence
Havana were seriously alarmed. The overthrow of a pro-
network in Jamaica.¹
mising puppet government on the South American
The Cubans promptly established an embassy in
mainland seemed an imminent possibility. So Cardenas
Paramaribo, the capital of Suriname, and a team of
was dispatched post-haste to order Bouterse to neutralize
Cuban intelligence operatives began to advise the
the people on the "enemies list." On December 7, 1982,
sergeant's junta on how to deal with internal dissent.
15 of Suriname's most prominent citizens-educators,
Over the three years since the coup, several hundred
lawyers, labor leaders and journalists-were dragged
militiamen from Suriname have received training and
from their homes and offices and detained inside the for-
Communist indoctrination inside Cuba. Some 80 Cuban
bidding stone pile of Fort Zeelandia, the old Dutch for-
advisers are currently in Suriname.2
tress in Paramaribo. Simultaneously, Bouterse's goon
Despite Bouterse's public protestations that his regime
squads bombed and burned two opposition radio stations
is "independent," our intelligence sources report that he
and the headquarters of the trade union confederation.
takes no important step without the approval of Jose
The next day, the civilian leaders incarcerated in Fort
Osvaldo Cardenas, the Cuban Ambassador in
Zeelandia were summarily executed-tortured or
Paramaribo. Cardenas is one of Castro's top intelligence
machine-gunned to death by hand-picked guards, many
officers, a former chief of the Caribbean section of the
of whom had been trained in Cuba. Some of the bodies
Departamento de America. He has been deeply involved
were found to be hideously mutiliated when the dead
in guerrilla operations in both Nicaragua and El
men's families were permitted to see them. The Bouterse
Salvador. We are reliably informed that Cardenas arriv-
government (which could never be accused of original
ed in Suriname from Havana last September with precise
propaganda) put out a feeble press release claiming that
instructions for the local boss: there was to be an im-
its prisoners had all been shot "while trying to escape."
mediate crackdown on all opposition elements. An
Unfortunately, the victims of the massacre are unlikely to
"enemies list" was drawn up, and key figures-including
be commemorated in a movie like "Missing"-the men-
the country's most popular labor organizer-were
dacious account of the death of a young U.S. radical after
marked down for physical elimination.
the 1973 coup in Chile. Their fate was barely reported in
The Cubans had reason to fear that their protege's grip
the major U.S. media, with the single exception of an ex-
might be slipping. Last October, the Marxist Prime
cellent recent article in the Wall Street Journal.
Minister of Grenada, Maurice Bishop, was scheduled to
However, the Dutch government expressed its outrage by
come to Suriname on an official visit. The trip had been
cancelling an aid agreement.
inspired by the Cubans. Unimpressed, the head of the
Suriname today is close to economic bankruptcy, as a
country's labor confederation, Cyril Daal, arranged a
result of the combined effects of political chaos and the
work stoppage by air traffic controllers to prevent
slump in the world price of its main export, bauxite. The
Bishop's plane from landing. Electricity technicians came
only support Bouterse can claim outside his sergeants'
out on strike as well. As these actions suggested, the coun-
cabal is that of minute Marxist organizations-the Peo-
try's union boss was an old-fashioned social democrat and
ple's Party and the Progressive Workers and Farmers
a staunch anti-Communist.
Union. If he and Ambassador Cárdenas succeed in con-
Prime Minister Bishop and his party finally managed
verting the country into a mainland Cuba, it will be as a
result of the sustained neglect of the situation by
1. Officially Castro's Ambassador to Jamaica, Estrada was a veteran officer of the
Departamento de America, or Americas Department, the Cuban intelligence
Washington and its allies, as well as of the determination
agency that specializes in subversion and terrorism in the Western Hemisphere. He
and ruthlessness of the Cubans in pursuing their objec-
was expelled from Kingston when Edward Seaga took office.
tives. The upshot could be Soviet naval and air bases on
2. Estimates by opposition sources range higher. Leaders of the anti-Bouterse Left-
the Atlantic coast of South America, and a further blow
ist Movement of Suriname claim that 1,000 militiamen have been trained in Cuba.
to U.S. prestige in the region.
E
PAGE 8
EARLY WARNING
guerrilla triumphs could finally force Garcia's resigna-
Focus: Central America
tion. Alternatively, they could deepen the divisions in the
military and political establishment to the point where
the government is finally compelled to treat with the
EL SALVADOR: Rifts in the military
guerrillas on losing terms-or (which we believe more
The Salvadoran Defense Minister, José Guillermo Gar-
likely) officers aligned with Ochoa will seize the guiding
cia, has been battling for his political survival, under fire
reins. They would then have to withstand a ferocious
not only from rightist leader Roberto d'Aubuisson but
barrage of propaganda attacks designed to cut off U.S.
also from a powerful faction of professional officers who
aid and isolate them from Western sympathy.
are bitter critics of corruption and incompetence in the
country's military establishment. The defiant breach of
NICARAGUA: Spadafora
military discipline in which Lt. Col. Sigifredo Ochoa
joins the rebels
challenged Garcia's authority for more than a week was
widely depicted as a case of "rightists" assailing a "cen-
A remarkable sign of the waning support for Nicaragua's
trist" administration. Its signficance runs much deeper,
Sandinista regime among its original supporters was a re-
and its effects have yet to be fully registered.
cent announcement by Hugo Spadafora that he is joining
In the view of U.S. military advisers who have been in
the "armed struggle" against the Cuban-backed regime
the field, Ochoa's success in "pacifying" the Marxist guer-
in Managua. Spadafora, a former Minister of Health in
rillas in the province of Cabanas is the only case of a
his native Panama, is something of a legend among Latin
decisive victory over the rebels that they have observed in
American revolutionaries. In 1966-67, he fought with
the recent course of the insurrection. Ochoa is recognized
Amilcar Cabral's guerrilla forces-alongside Cuban in-
as the only authentic hero the Salvadoran army has pro-
telligence advisers-in Portuguese Guinea. During the
duced. His growing reputation, however, excited
insurrection in Nicaragua that led to the overthrow of the
jealousy among military bureaucrats in San Salvador,
Somoza regime, he commanded Sandinista rebels in the
and Garcia rewarded him by banishing him as military
field.
Now Spadafora has resigned from Panama's
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)-in order to
avoid embarrassing his colleagues and has thrown in his
lot with Eden Pastora, who was one of the heroes of the
Nicaraguan revolution under the sobriquet "Coman-
dante Cero." Now, from his base in Costa Rica, Pastora is
planning the overthrow of the Sandinista junta that he
helped to bring to power. The leaders of his Democratic
Revolutionary Alliance (ARDE) include Alfonso Robelo,
a social democrat who was formerly a member of El
Salvador's governing junta.
Significantly, liberal U.S. newspapers (like the New
York Times) that published laudatory profiles of Hugo
Spadafora when he was on the side of the Communist
guerrillas have "spiked" the news of his defection.
attache to far-off Montevideo. Ochoa, of course, refused
to obey orders, and after a week-long test of strength a
CENTRAL AMERICA:
compromise was negotiated by which he was allowed to
pick his own successor in Cabanas and was assigned
The Sandinistas' domino theory
to the Inter-American Defense College in Washington-
Also ignored in the media was an extraordinary speech
handily located for a sudden return to El Salvador-
delivered by Commander Victor Tirado Lopez, a
instead of exile in Uruguay. The men who worked
member of the ruling FSLN National Directorate in
out the compromise with the Defense Minister, Colonel
Managua, as festivities organized in that city on
Alfredo Blandon (chief of the military district of
December 22, 1982, to commemorate the 60th anniver-
the capital) and General Eugenio Videz Casanova (com-
sary of the founding of the Soviet Union. Tirado declared
mander of the National Guard) are more attuned to
that "the Soviet experience is a lesson to the Central
Ochoa's thinking than to Garcia's.
American peoples. It shows that unity is a clear and
What Ochoa was saying to Garcia in essence was: the
powerful factor in solving common problems that seem to
war can be won if leadership is exerted and corruption is
be hard to face and resolve." He then added: "The for-
curtailed. It is an argument that attracts widespread sup-
mation of the USSR reminds us of the old desire for Cen-
port among junior and middle-ranking officers, which is
tral American unity and the old dream of Sandino,
why the conflict within El Salvador's armed forces is far
Morazan and other forefathers. The idea of uniting. un-
from resolved. The limits of the Defense Minister's
doubtedly responds to a deep popular aspiration."
authority became plainly visible during the "revolt." For
Tirado's comment was a clear indication of the San-
their part, the leftist guerrillas have grabbed their oppor-
dinista regime's aspirations to exercise the same kind of
tunity; the new Marxist offensive under way in Morazan
dominant position in Central America that Communist
province is a direct response to what has happened. New
Vietnam currently enjoys over Indochina.
E
Published by Mid-Atlantic Research Associates, Inc.: P.O. Box 1523, Washington, D.C. 20013. [301/621-4164]
Editors: Robert Moss and Arnaud de Borchgrave. Research Analysis: John Rees. © Copyright 1983.
Confidential org
EARLY WARNING
Issue 2, March 1983
The Radicals' 1983 Agenda
The Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) is the hub of radical
work operates. The major part of the conference, held on
political action and lobbying in Washington. IPS organizers
February 2, took place in the Cannon Caucus Room on
play a key role in campaigns to emasculate the intelligence
Capitol Hill. Five Congressmen and 250 congressional
agencies, promote unilateral disarmament, deny support to
staffers participated. The conference produced a radical
allied countries, and to shift congressional opinion in favor
"alternative plan" for meeting America's economic prob-
of socialist economic nostrums. They have developed an in-
lems that was hailed by Rep. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) in
fluential support apparat in the media, labor unions,
his keynote speech as "a bold, new approach" and "the
church organizations, local government and the U.S. Con-
beginning of a dialogue between public interest groups
gress. IPS might be regarded as the commissariat of the
and Congress and scholars."
American left today.
The editor of the IPS budget study "commissioned" by
The Institute also has some intriguing foreign connec-
60 Congressmen, Marcus Raskin, is one of the founders of
tions. It has played host to Ramon Sanchez Parodi, the head
the Institute and a member of the triumvirate that con-
of the Cuban Interests Section at the Czech Embassy in
trols its day-to-day activities. The others are Robert
Washington. Julian Torres Rizo, the former station chief of
Borosage, the director, and Richard Barnet, who
the Americas Department of the Cuban Communist Par-
specializes in international policy. Barnet and Raskin
ty-which is responsible for subversion and terrorism in the
now describe themselves as "senior fellows." Borosage, a
Western Hemisphere-met regularly with some of the In-
former president of the Washington, D.C. chapter of the
stitute's leading figures while he was based in the United
National Lawyers' Guild (NLG) and member of its ex-
States. Michael Klare, IPS's chief Pentagon-watcher, has
ecutive committee, is a graduate of Yale Law School who
found time to provide informative lectures on U.S. defense
first came to public notice as a vociferous antagonist of
and arms sales policies in Havana. But most revealing,
the U.S. intelligence agencies. Barnet is the theorist of the
perhaps, is that on April 10, 1982, some of the Institute's top
threesome, quieter in tone, an amateur violinist who likes
organizers visited Moscow and concluded an agreement
to take part in chamber music recitals. Raskin, by con-
with Georgiy Arbatov, the long-time crony of Yuri An-
trast, is the Institute's prize political in-fighter, coalition-
dropov who heads the Soviet Institute for the USA and
builder and organizer.
Canada. Under this agreement, IPS and the Arbatov In-
At the February conference, Raskin unveiled an eight-
stitute will collaborate in arranging conferences to promote
point plan for Congress. The highlights:
"peace" and disarmament. As a follow-up, 30 Russians are
scheduled to visit Minneapolis in April. The mayor of Min-
1.
IPS urges that the Defense budget should be clear-
neapolis, Donald Fraser, is a former Democratic Congress-
ly divided into two segments: (a) expenditures for
man who has long been associated with IPS, and accom-
"the direct defense and protection of the United States";
panied Marcus Raskin and Robert Borosage to Moscow last
and (b) expenditures on global defense, including the
year.
protection of trade routes, the upkeep of NATO and the
The Arbatov Institute is not just an academic study
defense of other U.S. allies. As Raskin indicated, re-
group. According to Soviet intelligence defectors, more than
half of its staffers work for the KGB. The primary role of
the Soviet Institute is to advise the KGB and the Interna-
tional Department of the CPSU on "active measures" cam-
CONTENTS
paigns against the United States, and to cultivate U.S.
citizens as agents of influence. In addition to their talks with
The radicals' 1983 agenda
1
Arbatov, the IPS delegates also met with Vadim Zagladin,
The decline of OPEC
3
the first deputy chief of the International Department,
The Saudi fallout
3
which determines the overall strategy for covert political
Stormclouds over Brazil
4
operations against the West.
Colombia's undeclared civil war
4
Against this backdrop, it is startling to find that IPS in-
Andropov's propaganda purge
6
fluence on Capitol Hill has continued to expand during
Plan to disrupt L.A. Olympics
6
the first years of the Reagan Administration. At a recent
and Dallas GOP convention
7
conference organized by IPS to contest the Administra-
tion's budget proposals, Democratic Congressmen
Flashpoints: El Salvador, Japan, Libya,
chaired many of the working sessions. Early Warning
Haiti, West Germany
7
correspondents monitored the conference and picked up
Africa activists target corporations
8
some intriguing clues to how the IPS-Capitol Hill net-
PAGE 2
EARLY WARNING
arranging the defense budget in this way would make it
the support of a sizable Congressional caucus of left-
easier to use "diplomatic means" to cut back expen-
liberal Democrats for its agenda. The panel on industrial
ditures-i.e., to bring pressure within Congress for the
policy was chaired by Rep. Bob Edgar (D-Pa); the one on
abandonment of America's responsibilities abroad.
social welfare was presided over by Rep. Cardiss Collins
IPS is touting an "Economic Bill of Rights" that
(D-III.). The workshop on "Macroeconomic Policy" was
2.
would make it a constitutional duty of government
moderated by Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.), a familiar
to maintain a guaranteed standard of living for all
figure in IPS circles. Conyers is Chairman of the Subcom-
Americans. This proposal, like the more specific sugges-
mittee on Criminal Justice. He also happens to be a long-
tions for economic policy, reflects the desire to bring
time member of the National Lawyers' Guild, an affiliate
about massive state intervention at all levels of the
of a well-known Soviet front organization, the Interna-
American economy. Raskin told an approving audience
tional Association of Democratic Lawyers (IADL). In
that "the public sector is the place where we civilize
January 1982, Conyers participated in a meeting of the
ourselves and socialize our needs."
presidential committee of the World Peace Council-the
most important Soviet front operation and a mainstay of
3.
Raskin demanded a "more progressive" tax sys-
the unilateral disarmament campaigns in the West-in
tem-i.e., much stiffer taxes on wealthy in-
Copenhagen. Conyers, a very able and influential black
dividuals and on corporations.
Congressional leader, has been active in enlisting the sup-
4.
Raskin called for a vast program of public invest-
port of colleagues on Capitol Hill for IPS initiatives.
ment and the creation of "yardstick public enter-
The "Defense and Foreign Policy" workshop-held,
prises."
ironically, in the hearing room of the House Veterans' Af-
fairs Committee in the Cannon House Office
5-8.
The IPS plan also entails "export restric-
Building-was moderated by Rep. Sam Gejdenson, a
tions" on U.S. private banks to limit foreign
second-term liberal Democrat who represents Connec-
loans; the setting of limits by Congress on the amount of
ticut's 2nd Congressional District.
interest the Administration would be permitted to pay
when borrowing money; the setting-up of a "National
Employment Agency"; and the introduction of an overall
state plan for the economy-camouflaged with the rubric
"national needs assessment."
Other Key Speakers
The net effect of the implementation of all these pro-
posals, according to Raskin, would be that the United
Other key speakers at the conference included Earl
States would "move to a human rights society."
Ravenal, a Pentagon systems analyst in the days of the
Johnson Administration who has been publicly associated
In assailing the Reagan Administration's defense plans,
with IPS since the early 1970s; Robert deGrasse of the
Raskin insisted that the "real beneficiaries" are private
Council on Economic Priorities; and Paul Warnke, the
corporations; Members of Congress who hope to advance
their careers through militaristic rhetoric; and veterans
head of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
whose generous benefits "induce" them to support ever-
under the Carter Administration. Ravenal explained that
the key to a balanced budget lies in defense cuts-par-
increasing military budgets. The alternative to high
ticularly in the area of U.S. commitments to NATO.
defense spending, he maintained, was to seek com-
DeGrasse stressed the need to "discredit" the idea that
prehensive disarmament agreements with the Soviet
defense spending creates new jobs, develops new
Union and to work toward a world security arrangement
centered on the United Nations Military Committee-in
technology and stimulates new products. Warnke agreed
effect, a U.N. glohal police force.
that the MX missile project should be shelved.
IPS has been lobbying Congress with "alternative"
He even invoked George Washington to support a pro-
budget proposals since 1965. Its success in winning a
gram that would require the United States to withdraw
wider hearing owes a great deal to low-visibility work
from its present network of alliances, declaiming that the
among Congressional staffers. For example, Neil Kotler,
nation should return to the ideas of Washington's
Rep. Conyers' legislative assistant, has worked successful-
celebrated Farewell Address.*
ly to organize a caucus of "progressive" members of
House staff for IPS. One of the Institute's most valued
friends on Capitol Hill today is Richard Kaufman, who
Significance
occupies a critically important position as counsel and
staff director of the Joint Economic Council of Con-
gress-the place where Senate and House representatives
confer over differences in allocations. Kaufman has
The real significance of the IPS get-together is that it
been active in IPS circles since the 1960s, and still lectures
demonstrated how the Institute has succeeded in winning
at Institute seminars.
Rep. Tom Harkin, who opened the February con-
"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the
ference, has made himself one of the leading advocates of
foreign world," Washington declared in his Address on September 17, 1796. This
a cut-off of U.S. support for anti-Soviet governments in
quotation is much in vogue with the new generation of American isolationists,
who carefully ignore the historical context of the famous speech. Washington was
Central America. Marcus Raskin revealed, in the course
trying to prevent America from becoming embroiled in Europe's dynastic feuds,
of the afternoon session, that Harkin is now considering
not to smooth the road for the expansion of a totalitarian dictatorship.
making a bid for a Senate seat in Iowa in 1984.
MARCH 1983
PAGE 3
The Decline of OPEC
Those who recall the warnings of economic calamity that
Third World debt (at present levels) by $6 billion. The
were rife in the wake of the vast increases in the price of
saving for Mexico alone would be $850 million.
oil dictated by OPEC in 1974-75 (after the Yom Kippur
The risk that control of energy supplies will be used
war) and in 1979-80 (after the revolutionary convulsions
in Iran) will appreciate the irony of current predictions
as a political lever has been greatly diminished. The con-
trast between the situation in 1973, when Arab producers
that similar perils lie in store if oil prices slump
dramatically. What troubles many analysts is the possible
used the "oil weapon" to penalize the United States for
disappearance of a major source of international liquid-
supporting Israel, and that of 1982, when oil prices
ity-OPEC surpluses-which have been regularly recycl-
steadily declined, unaffected by the Israeli invasion of
ed to debtor-countries for use in meeting debt repayment
Lebanon, is striking.
schedules. The fear is that the consequent inability of
It is important to note that the fall in international oil
debtor countries to meet their obligations could in turn
prices actually began two years ago, after reaching peak
bring about the insolvency of international creditors.
levels in the first months of 1981 that ranged from $32 a
That could lead to the breakdown of the world's banking
barrel (for Venezuelan crude) to $42 (for the Nigerian
and monetary systems.
and Libyan products). According to a recent OAPEC
Our assessment is not quite so apocalyptic. The present
assessment, the present glut of oil on world markets will
glut of oil, which has unleashed increasingly predatory
continue into 1984, despite increased demand over the
competition among oil-producing states, presents major
next 12 months. Idle capacity (outside the Soviet Union)
risks, not the least of which is the political upheaval in
is currently estimated at between 25-30 billion barrels
several Third World states and of a widening regional
per day. In anticipation of further sharp declines in oil
conflict in the Gulf that could embroil the Saudis. The
prices, many buyers prefer to hold off and run down ex-
challenge to Saudi Arabia is analyzed in the next article.
isting stocks. As a result, Ecuador's exports of oil and oil-
However, these risks must be weighed against some
based products (for example) were down by 42 percent in
potential benefits to the West. In particular:
January, compared with 12 months ago. Bahrain has cut
refining operations to less than half of capacity-to some
Lower oil prices, by lessening inflationary pressures,
90,000 barrels a day.
should make it easier for the Federal Reserve Board to
Given OPEC's inability to maintain agreed price struc-
bring down interest rates without an excessive squeeze on
tures and the angry jostling among producer-countries
the money supply. Each 1 percent drop in U.S. short-
over their relative shares of the market, further big
term interest rates would reduce the annual charges on
reductions in oil prices are in store.
Q
The Saudi Fallout
Even the cushion of some $150 billion in reserves cannot
his views appear to have prevailed. However, he is also
blunt the effects of the OPEC fiasco for the Saudis. The
conscious that a price reduction of only $3-$4 per barrel
Saudis will close their fiscal year this month with an
would probably not add appreciably to demand. And the
estimated budget deficit of $18-$20 billion, in contrast to
political fallout from a bigger reduction, within Saudi
the whopping surpluses of previous years. Late last year
Arabia and even within the royal household, could be
they began drawing down rather than adding to their
considerable.
deposits in international banks. Liftings of Saudi crude in
For example, Shiite workers in the eastern oilfields are
February reportedly fell below 400,000 barrels on some
opposed to a major price cut. Many of them are tuned in
days. Many ambitious modernization projects, and a lav-
to the daily propaganda broadcasts from Teheran that
ish program of military spending, now seem in jeopardy.
denounce corruption and wastrel policies among the
The Saudis are also counting the political costs of the
Saudi ruling families. The Ayatollah's regime has let it be
erosion of their leadership position within OPEC. Their
known that it would view a sharp drop in the price of
attempt at Geneva in January to impose a $34 price level
Saudi crude as tantamount to an act of war-a threat
and their own standards for setting differentials and na-
that nobody in Riyadh can afford to ignore. While
tional production quotas incurred the open hostility of
Teheran radio appealed to the Saudi masses to carry out
most of the other delegations. When the meeting broke
an "Islamic" revolution, an Iranian fighter-bomber
up, the Saudis suffered the humiliation of watching the
recently made a beeline for the Saudi oilfields south of
Iranian delegates crowing about a "victory" over Saudi
Dahran. American-manned AWACs spotted it and-to
Arabia.
the surprised relief of U.S. advisers-Saudi planes were
Since the Geneva fiasco, the debate among the Saudi
scrambled in time for an intercept. The Iranian pilot
ruling princes has been over whether to cut the price of
turned back. The incident may have been a deliberate
oil in order to retain the country's present share of the
warning by the Iranians, motivated in part by the back-
market-or whether to seek to prop up price levels by
ing the Saudis have given to Iraq in the Gulf war. The
pumping even less. Saudi Oil Minister Sheik Zaki
Saudis certainly read the signal that way; they have since
Yamani could see no way out of a price reduction, and
sharply curtailed their support for the beleagured Sad-
PAGE 4
EARLY WARNING
dam Hussein regime, which could lose control of the vital
received reports that Saudi emissaries have held secret
city of Basra if Iranian advances continue.
meetings with Soviet diplomats in Western Europe to pur-
Another Saudi worry is that the volatility of the Gulf
sue this idea. The Foreign Minister, Prince Saud, appears
region has led major consumers to look for alternative
to be one of its primary advocates. However, King Fahd
energy sources for geopolitical reasons as well as price
and Prince Sultan, the Defense Minister, continue to
considerations. The United States has cut imports of
favor close alignment with the United States.
Saudi crude from a peak of 1.6 million barrels per day to
All these stresses have brought about a period of
about 400,000. Japanese dependency on Gulf sources can
vacillation and uncertainty in Saudi policy. An intriguing
be eased by increased reliance on Indonesia and Mexico,
pointer to things to come is the recently initiated and fast-
and substantially broken if it is allowed to import
developing coziness between the Saudis (along with a
Alaskan crude.
number of lesser Gulf rulers) and the indefatigable Ar-
Fears at the top that Saudi Arabia is losing its oil
mand Hammer, the head of Occidental Petroleum,
leverage will increase the influence of Crown Prince Ab-
which not long ago swallowed up Cities Services. Ham-
dullah, the head of the National Guard, who has long
mer recently paid a visit to Saudi Arabia and several Gulf
maintained at his side a left-leaning Syrian adviser. Ab-
emirates, and there has been talk of a Saudi-Occidental
dullah is the symbolic head of a faction within the Saudi
refinery venture in Louisiana. Not the least fascinating
ruling establishment that believes that national security is
aspect of this new conjunction is that Hammer, who has
to be found not in a close alliance with the United States
intimate and longstanding relations with the Soviet lead-
but in a policy of neutrality that would leave the country
ership, would be ideally placed to serve as a go-between
"equidistant" between the two superpowers. We have
in negotiations between the Saudis and Moscow.
-
government party a technical majority, but also mani-
7
FOCUS:
fested the strength of countrywide opposition. The large
southern states were captured by the opposition; and the
bellweather state of Rio de Janeiro is now controlled by
LATIN AMERICA
the radical left. Leonel Brizola, now governor of Rio, was
the brother-in-law of João Goulart, the former President
Stormclouds over Brazil
whose sympathy for the Marxist left brought about the
military coup of 1964. Brizola is now working to compel
We have received reliable intelligence reports that
the country's military rulers to hold direct elections for
Cuban army veterans and intelligence officers who served
the presidency by 1985, at the latest. We can expect a
in Angola and are fluent in Portuguese are currently
well-orchestrated international propaganda campaign to
being transferred to Suriname. Their target: Brazil. The
support this demand. Brizola himself intends to run for
common border between Brazil and the former Dutch
the presidency when elections are announced.
colony of Suriname, now under the sway of a Marxist
In the meantime, the ground rules announced by Presi-
sergeants' junta, is porous and impossible to police. It
dent João Baptista Figuereido call for the transition of
seems that Castro is using Suriname as an advance post in
power to another general before elections finally take
an effort to supply covert support to leftist forces in Brazil
place in 1989. The heir-apparent is the present chief of
that hope to take advantage of that country's social and
the national intelligence service (SNI), General Otavio
economic troubles. (The government ordered a 30 per-
Medeiros. He could, however, be damaged by a scandal
cent devaluation last month.)
that has blown up over the disappearance of a Brazilian
Suriname is not the only base for possible Cuban med-
editor who had allegedly accumulated an explosive
dling in Brazil. On Brazil's western flank, Bolivia recent-
dossier on SNI activities.
ly reestablished diplomatic relations with Havana. The
Santa Cruz region of eastern Bolivia-an area of mixed
Colombia's undeclared civil war
Brazilian and Bolivian cultures and influence notorious,
until recently, for its coca plantations-is a still more at-
Colombia's President Belisario Betancur is gambling on
tractive base for Castro's Angola veterans.
the possibility that he can make a deal with his country's
Brazil has entered a prolonged recession and rapid
well-organized guerrilla groups, the largest of which, the
political change. While falling oil prices will bring par-
FARC* (or Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces)
tial relief, the IMF has demanded budget cuts of at least
operates under tight Cuban supervision. In the hope of a
21 percent for state enterprises, including the agencies
settlement, he is making overtures to Fidel Castro, has
charged with helping the poorest of the poor in the north-
launched rhetorical attacks on U.S. policy in Central
east part of the country, now suffering the worst drought
America, and has created a 40-man commission to
in a century. Some 35 million people live in drought-
negotiate with the guerrillas. These moves have already
stricken areas; the sheer enormity of the problem is
excited sharp criticism from the Army high command,
beyond solution for the Brazilian government. Now, with
and there are fears that the country could slip back into a
development programs being cut back, attacking the
state of armed chaos, with damaging fall-out for the
IMF has become a popular theme. Signs have appeared
United States and the region as a whole.
in Brazil making out that the initials IMF stand for In-
With both a Pacific and a Caribbean coastline, and
flação, Miseria, Fome-"Inflation, Misery and Hunger."
Uncertainty about the political future clouds
The political command of FARC [Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colom-
bia] since 1966 has been through the Soviet-line Communist Party of Colombia
everything else. The elections of November 1982 gave the
(PCC).
TO: Mid-Atlantic Research Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 1523
Washington, D.C. 20013
Please enter my subscription to the confidential intelligence bulletin EARLY
WARNING. I undertake to respect the confidentiality and copyright of the
publication. I enclose a check for $1,000 for the next 12 monthly issues.
(Signed)
Name
Title
Organization
Mailing address
EARLY WARNING
Published by Mid-Atlantic Research Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 1523, Washington, D.C. 20013. [301/621-4164]
Editors: Robert Moss and Arnaud de Borchgrave. Research Analysis: John Rees.
PAGE 5
MARCH 1983
with close proximity to the Panama Canal, Colombia OC-
ed. The Betancur government has been trying to suppress
cupies a crucial strategic position in Latin America. It is
the news of such incidents, but our intelligence sources
also the home of the continent's oldest established guer-
report that they are frequent and bloody.
rilla movement, born in the terrible era of civil blood-
"Colombia is in a virtual state of undeclared civil
letting that followed the "Bogotazo" of 1948 in which
war," according to the country's Attorney General,
Fidel Castro was a leading protagonist. Betancur was
Carlos Jimenez Gomez. Violence from the left has pro-
elected on the Conservative ticket last year, and almost
voked an answering response from the right, in the form
immediately surprised many of his own backers by his ef-
of private armies and "death squads."
forts to appease Castro and the guerrilla left.
A rightist organization calling itself Muerte a los Se-
questradores (MAS) or "Death to the Kidnappers" has
surfaced, and many members of the armed forces and the
GUYANA
police are believed to be working with it in defiance of
VENEZUELA
French Gulana
government orders. One further sign of the breakdown of
COLOMBIA
presidential authority is that even the Minister of War,
SURINAME
General Bernardo Landazabal, while quick to disclaim
ECUADOR
any military involvement with MAS in public, is reliably
reported to be privately sympathetic to its activities.
BRAZIL
PERU
Veteran analysts believe that it is highly unlikely that
either the FARC, the M-19, or the country's third impor-
BOLIVIA
tant guerrilla group, the ELN (or Army of National
Liberation) will accept an amnesty on the terms Presi-
CHILE
PARAGUAY
dent Betancur is suggesting. But it is interesting to note
that the group that has been most receptive is the FARC,
URUGUAY
the guerrilla movement that is most closely controlled by
ARGENTINA
the Soviets and the Cubans. Its leader, Marulanda, has
been a guerrilla fighter for three decades. It seems pro-
bable that he has been encouraged to meet the President's
emissaries by his Soviet and Cuban advisers in order to
gain time, demoralize the armed forces, and encourage
Betancur's recent flirtation with an "anti-imperialist"
foreign policy.
Colombian Mafia in U.S.
Increased political disruption inside Colombia will
Otto Morales, a former government minister, said
have direct repercussions for the United States. Colombia
recently that he and other members of the President's
is already the source of some 70 percent of the cocaine
"peace commission" had conducted talks with the FARC
and marijuana entering the United States. More and
leader, Manual Marulanda (better known by the sobri-
more of Colombia's criminal elite have been moving to
quet of Tiro Fijo, or "Sure Shot") in a jungle region in the
the United States to establish a firm base-insurance
southwest of the country. The news was not welcomed by
against the possibility that revolutionary upheavals could
the Army chiefs, who have been pressing President
threaten their safe havens in Medellin, Cali and Bogota.
Betancur to impose martial law and allow them to take
These Colombian "families" can be seen as the Latin
stronger measures against a rising terrorist threat that in-
American successors to the Sicilian Mafia. Settling mostly
cludes the urban operations of the M-19 organization,
in south Florida and in the Queens borough of New York
made notorious by its prolonged siege of the Dominican
City, they have expanded from drug trafficking into
Embassy two years back, when the American Am-
gambling, prostitution and loansharking. They are rich
bassador was one of the captives.
enough and powerful enough to one day challenge the
Multiple murders are again everyday happenings in
Mafia for the leadership of organized crime in the United
Colombia. In the Department of Santander, for example,
States. They have a further asset: some of them have been
17 peasant farmers were massacred by leftist guerrillas on
dealing with high officials in Havana for many years as
February 7. During the month of January alone, more
their sleeping partners.
than 200 people were the victims of assassination, and 63
Before a Federal court in Miami, a former agent of
kidnappings were reported. Most of the killings were
Castro's DGI called Mario Estevez Gonzalez recently
politically inspired, but the rising tide of political
revealed that he had worked with one of the major Col-
violence also gave criminal elements the chance to pros-
ombian crime families in smuggling narcotics into the
per.
United States. His testimony resulted in the indictment of
General Gustavo Matamoros, the chief of the armed
four top Cuban officials on charges of conspiracy to im-
forces, has been urging the President to give him the
port drugs into the United States. They were: René
green light for a major offensive against the guerrillas. So
Rodriguez Cruz, the head of ICAP (the Cuban Institute
far, the general has been rebuffed. The Army chiefs are
of Friendship with the Peoples); Admiral Aldo San-
particularly alarmed by frequent guerrilla ambushes of
tamaria Cuadrado, the chief of the Cuban Navy; Fernan-
convoys and military outposts. On February 7, for exam-
do Ravelo Reneda, former Cuban Ambassador to Colom-
ple, nine soldiers were killed in an FARC ambush and the
bia; and Gonzalo Bassols Suarez, a veteran Cuban in-
convoy of food and weapons they were escorting was seiz-
telligence officer most recently assigned to Panama.
PAGE 6
EARLY WARNING
Andropov's Propaganda Purge
Heads began to roll in Moscow's propaganda services
propaganda machine. What is behind it? Our analysis
soon after Yuri Andropov took over as General Secretary.
suggests that the reason Andropov has moved so ex-
The victims are proteges of the late Leonid Brezhnev.
peditiously to put his own men in charge of propaganda
The first to be ousted was the head of the powerful pro-
is that he is getting ready to launch a campaign of denun-
paganda department of the CPSU, Yevgeniy
ciation-both direct and indirect-against Brezhnev.
Tyazhelnikov, who was packed off to Bucharest as Am-
Just as Khrushchev reviled the memory of Stalin, An-
bassador.
dropov will seek to make Brezhnev the scapegoat for
Next to fall was Valentin Falin, the deputy chief of the
Russia's economic failures, pervasive corruption, and
International Information Department (IID) of the
possibly even for the costly intervention in Afghanistan.
Soviet Communist Party, and a former Soviet Am-
There may be a further motive for the purge. An-
bassador to Bonn. The IID is responsible for doctoring
dropov, himself a specialist in disinformation and black
news on world affairs for the Soviet bloc media and for
propaganda, wants to streamline the organs responsible
"active measures" operations against the West. Early this
for active measures in order to play deception games
year, Falin succeeded in getting air-time on West Ger-
against the West that will be both more sophisticated and
man and Swiss television to attack NATO plans for the
more aggressive than those practiced in recent years. The
deployment of Pershing II and cruise missiles in Europe.
primary targets will be the Reagan Administration and
Now he has been reduced to writing political commen-
its West European allies.
taries for Izvestiya.
It is possible that, as a result of the shakeup, the IID
A recent Soviet defector experienced in "active
will be closed down altogether, and its responsibilities
measures" operations believes that Falin's boss, Leonid
transferred back to the International Department, the
Zamyatin, is also on the way out-into honorable exile,
Party's strategic directorate for foreign affairs and all
as Ambassador to Algeria.
types of covert operations.
@
The purge augurs a major overhaul of Moscow's huge
paigners who turned up at the Berkeley meeting over the
SECURITY ALERT
precise tactics to be employed. While some of the more
media-conscious activists harped on the need to give the
rally a "peaceful" coloration-to the point of displaying
blue-and-white flags bearing doves in place of red ban-
Plan to disrupt L.A. Olympics
ners-others demanded civil disobedience and confronta-
tion with the authorities.
A radical coalition is planning to assemble one million
For example, a young Columbia University physicist,
protesters at a mass rally in Los Angeles on July 27, 1984,
Dr. Michio Kaku, who has been involved with Mobiliza-
the day before the opening of the Summer Olympic
tion for Survival, an anti-nuclear coalition, read a
Games.
message from Philip Berrigan, a defrocked priest and
The rally is the brainchild of a New York-based group
leader of the Atlantic Life Community, which has car-
called the Federation for Progress (FFP), an alliance
ried out acts of vandalism and destruction at a number of
dominated by violence-prone organizations such as the
plants operated by defense contractors on the East Coast
Communist Workers Party (CWP). Details were dis-
and at the Pentagon. Berrigan's theme: There is "a moral
cussed at a planning session held on the Berkeley campus
duty to create civil disobedience."
of UCLA on February 5. What most alarms security
The leaders of the Olympic protest planning session
analysts is that the participants included veterans of the
were Harry Edwards, a sociology professor at UCLA;
Communist Party, U.S.A.; Young Workers' Liberation
and Judy Chu, a UCLA professor of Asian-American
League; Venceremos Brigade;* Students for a
Studies. Edwards spoke of the need to build a broad-
Democratic Society; the Weather Underground; leftist
based coalition to mount the mass demonstration and to
Iranian students, and activists from a variety of Latin
expand the role of the Federation for Progress as a laun-
American and Mexican-American groups.
ching pad for a grassroots radical movement in the
The guiding idea behind the planned demonstration is
United States.
to take advantage of the media attention that will be
Professor Chu assailed the U.S. Olympics Committee
focused on the 1984 Olympics in order to publicize
for allegedly seeking to turn the 1984 Games into "the
various causes and make a strong show of opposition to
first Olympic victory for big business." Estimating that
the Reagan Administration in the run-up to next year's
one million spectators and 37,000 athletes and officials
elections. There was a clear division among the cam-
will turn out next summer, she declared that "the world's
eyes will be focused on Los Angeles and we don't intend
to allow them not to see us, our problems and needs."
Federation organizers agreed to target "the large
The Venceremos Brigade was established by Cuba in 1969 to recruit a pool of
U.S. activists, vetted and checked by the DCI, and some of which are known to
security apparatus established for the Games." They also
have received training in terrorism and clandestine operations. The VB organiza-
agreed to resist any efforts by law enforcement agencies
tion, which is ongoing, keeps track of some 5,000 of these pro-Castro activists.
to collect information on planned violence or terrorist at-
MARCH 1983
PAGE 7
tacks. Such intelligence-gathering was described as
of the Los Angeles Olympics, have also hatched a scheme
"political repression."
to stage protests during the August 1984 Republican Na-
Our sources saw no indication that the Federation for
tional Convention in Dallas.
Progress is prepared to purge violence-oriented groups
The local organizer in Dallas is Roger Tallendberg,
like the Communist Workers Party from its membership
who has been active for some 15 years in the War
or exclude them from participating in the scheduled pro-
Resisters League, which claims "pacifist" credentials
tests. (The CWP is best-known for its shootout with the
despite its backing for the Vietcong, the PLO, the Irish
Ku Klux Klan and neo-Nazis at Greensboro, N.C. and its
Republican Army, the Baader-Meinhof gang, the Black
attempt to fight its way onto the floor at the 1980
Liberation Army and the Weather Underground. The
Democratic National Convention in New York.)
specialty of the War Resisters League is organizing (and
The FFP advertises itself as an embryonic leftist "third
providing training for) civil disobedience demonstrations
party"-a coalition between Marxist-Leninists, white
that sometimes set the stage for violence by other groups.
radicals, third world solidarity groups and ethnic minori-
The Dallas organizers hope to profit from the suc-
ty organizations. To date, its public activities have been
cessful example of the big "Nuclear Freeze and Disarma-
almost exclusively focused on attacking the foreign and
ment Rally" held in New York on June 12, 1982. With the
domestic policies of the Reagan Administration.
help of super-star entertainers, the New York rally drew a
The list of those who signed the call to found the FFP
crowd of over half a million. Significantly, the chief
includes: Sidney Lens, a co-founder of Mobilization for
logistical planner of the New York rally, Leslie Cagan,
Survival who has long been involved with the Chicago af-
has already met with the Dallas group. Cagan is a
filiate of the Soviet-controlled World Peace Council;
veteran of the pro-Castro Venceremos Brigade who once
Manning Marable, a leader of the National Black In-
co-taught a class at a Marxist study center with a member
dependent Political Party; Nelson M. Johnson, chairman
of the Communist Party's Central Committee.
of the Communist Workers Party; Rep. Ronald Dellums
Building on issues ranging from "peace" and the en-
(D-Calif.); Rep. Parren Mitchell (D-Md.); William
vironment to solidarity with Latin American guerrillas,
Kunstler, a prominent figure in the National Lawyers
and from homosexual rights to unemployment, the
Guild; Leonard Weinglass, NLG activist and attorney
organizers of the Dallas protests are hoping for a big
for the Weather Underground Brink's robbery defend-
turnout. Tallendberg says that he wants to bring in
ants; Michael Parenti of the Institute for Policy Studies;
"peace groups" from as far afield as Europe and Central
Russell Means, leader of the American Indian Movement;
America.
Georgia State Senator Julian Bond; Don Luce, head of
the Southeast Asia Resource Center and a long-time pro-
Question: Can the left arrange two huge mass rallies,
Hanoi partisan; Dr. Benjamin Spock, and Pete Seeger.
in locations 1,000 miles apart, in the space of less than
and the Dallas GOP convention
two weeks in the summer of 1984? The answer depends
on money-cash for buses, plane tickets, lodgings, adver-
tising, communications. The fund-raising drive is now
Leaders of the radical anti-defense lobby, Mobilization
on. If it falls badly short of the targets, expect a lot of
for Survival. which is involved in the planned disruption
scrapping between rival organizers over priorities.
&
clude National Security Adviser William Clark, UN Am-
FLASHPOINTS
bassador Jeane Kirkpatrick and CIA Director William
Casey. However, we are told that Enders got Secretary of
State George Shultz' blessing for his approach to Gon-
zalez-on the understanding that what the U.S. was
The Enders plan for El Salvador. Top-level
seeking was not a power-sharing agreement in El
Salvador, but the possible transformation of the Marxist
Washington sources tell us that Thomas Enders, Assistant
guerrilla movement into a legal opposition. Enders has
Secretary for Inter-American Affairs and the Admini-
been saying privately that he's encouraged by the exam-
stration's prime troubleshooter in El Salvador, has
ple of the amnesty that Colombia's President Betancur
stepped up his efforts to find a negotiated settlement. He
has held out to his country's guerrillas. But, as we detail
is said to have reached the conclusion that the United
in our report from Colombia, that formula isn't working
States is in a "no-win" situation and should seek a
too well, and the Enders approach in El Salvador could
graceful way to bow out, à la Vietnam. Enders was in
end up by seriously undermining the pro-U.S. forces
Madrid recently to confer with the new Spanish Prime
there.
Minister, Socialist leader Felipe Gonzalez. Gonzalez,
who is also President of the Socialist International (SI) is
Soviet pressures on Japan. Since Japan's Prime
apparently seen by Enders as an ideal intermediary to
Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone visited Washington and
treat with all sides in El Salvador. The State Department
referred to his country as an "unsinkable aircraft
man was apparently not disillusioned when Gonzalez
carrier," Moscow has kept up an intense propaganda bar-
started urging the normalization of relations between
rage designed to intimidate the Japanese government into
Washington and Havana. Some key Administration of.
abandoning plans to upgrade national defense and pur-
ficials are strongly opposed to Enders' approach. They in-
sue a closer alliance with the United States. The Japanese
PAGE 8
EARLY WARNING
are uneasily aware of the steady expansion of the Soviet
understood that the Zionists wanted to dominate Ger-
Pacific fleet, which now includes 87 warships, an aircraft
many." Asked by the disbelieving French correspondent
carrier with 35 vertical take-off fighter planes and
whether he meant what he had said, Qaddafi went on to
helicopters, 80 attack submarines and more than 30
underline his point: "Hitler decided to sacrifice the
strategic missile submarines. A fascinating Chinese
Jews before they sacrificed Germany."
analysis of Moscow's naval build-up in the Far East
published in Renmin Ribao comments that "the Soviet
New threats to the Pope. Pope John Paul II's im-
Union's fundamental strategic principle is to discourage
pending tour of Central America and the Caribbean
the relationship between the United States and its
poses horrendous security headaches. A number of death
allies At present, due to considerable developments in
threats have already been reported. One of the more
Japanese-American military cooperation, the Soviet
bizarre warnings came from an exiled Haitian opposition
Union has unprecedentedly increased its military
group, the "Hector Riode Brigade," which sent a letter to
pressure on Japan. It attaches more importance than ever
the Apostolic Nunciature of Port-au-Prince on January 26
before to the use of political infiltration, diplomatic
stating that "We will not hesitate one moment in jeopar-
favors and economic seduction."
dizing the security of Pope John Paul II during his visit to
Haiti should the high pontiff shirk his duty as head of the
Qaddafi's exemplar. On the eve of his public
Catholic Church and place himself at the service of the
clash with the Reagan Administration over U.S.
Duvalier family which rules Haiti." The Pope's visit to
maneuvers in response to Libyan meddling in Sudan,
Haiti is scheduled for March 20.
Muammar Qaddafi offered some startling insights into
his personal philosophy-and his psychological
The Soviets' friend in Bonn. The key man to
stability-in an interview with three Western cor-
watch in Western Europe today is Egon Bahr, the foreign
respondents. As reported by Le Matin (Paris), Qaddafi
policy mentor to Social Democrat leader Hans-Jochen
held "Jews and Zionists" accountable for "a plan to
Vogel. For many years, Bahr has been a trusted confidant
destroy or dominate the world." As examples, he stated
of the Soviet leaders, and a key proponent of moves
that converted Jews had labored to "destroy Christianity
toward a bilateral security arrangement between
from within" and had brought about the rift in the
Moscow and Bonn that would lead to the break-up of the
Muslim world between Shiites and Sunnis. "The
NATO alliance. Ironically, Bahr was on equally intimate
economic crisis of the past few years," he went on, "is the
terms in the 1950s with U.S. diplomats and CIA officials
result of the proliferation of Zionists in treasury institu-
in West Germany. But in the early 1960s, following the
tions, stock exchanges, oil companies and money
construction of the Berlin Wall-which shocked many
markets." The Jewish world conspiracy, according to
West Germans as an apparent manifestation of American
Qaddafi, is "the same plan which failed before in Ger-
impotence-he switched sides, and is today feared in
many. In fact, although we utterly condemn Hitler for
West European chanceries as the man who could drive a
the massacre of the Jews, Hitler understood that plan,
fatal wedge into the Atlantic alliance.
Africa Activists Target Corporations
The network of activists backing Soviet-aided guerrillas
American Friends Service Committee; and the American
in southern Africa are again lighting fires under Congres-
offices of several African insurgent groups, primarily the
sional lobbying campaigns. Key targets include fighting
South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) of
Commerce Department efforts to relax tight export con-
Namibia, and the African National Congress (ANC) of
trols to South Africa; maintaining the Clark Amendment
South Africa.
prohibiting all U.S. covert or overt action against the
Sources report the next media campaign is targeted on
Soviet client regime in Angola; promoting U.S. contribu-
March 21, anniversary of the "Sharpeville Massacre."
tions to a United Nations fund for the legal defense of
These media campaigns in Western Europe and the
South African terrorists; and supporting legislation pro-
United States have, in the past, often coincided with
posed by the Congressional Black Caucus to prohibit all
sporadic bombings by local terrorists of companies doing
new American investment in South Africa.
business in Southern Africa. Furthermore, in recent years
Playing leading roles in these efforts are a project of the
these campaigns have also been accompanied by sabotage
Institute for Policy Studies, the Campaign to Oppose
and terrorist attacks against key targets in the South
Bank Loans to South Africa; TransAfrica; American
African economic and defense infrastructure.
Committee on Africa; Washington Office on Africa;
Published by Mid-Atlantic Research Associates, Inc.: P.O. Box 1523, Washington, D.C. 20013. [301/621-4164]
Editors: Robert Moss and Arnaud de Borchgrave. Research Analysis: John Rees. © Copyright 1983.
Confidential 683
EARLY WARNING
Issue 3, April 1983
How to Win in El Salvador
Over the past two weeks, Early Warning has sent two ob-
economic warfare via sabotage of communications,
servers to El Salvador-one a veteran intelligence analyst
utilities, agricultural equipment and storage facilities,
with particular experience of Latin America, the other an
and industrial plants. But a crisis that now raises the
expert in guerrilla warfare and counter-insurgency tech-
spectre of widespread hunger in a formerly self-sufficient
niques. Their independent reports point to the same con-
agricultural country has been deepened by malad-
clusion: that unless there is a fundamental change in tac-
ministration of a land reform program fraught with cor-
tics by the Salvadoran military, the anti-Communist
ruption and feather-bedding.
government forces are likely to suffer a devastating
A recent report prepared by a Washington consultancy
defeat, possibly before the end of this year. This would
group for the U.S. Agency for International Develop-
trigger a destabilizing chain-reaction in Costa Rica, Hon-
ment established that some $25 million provided by the
duras, Guatemala and Mexico: would increase the threat
United States for El Salvador's agrarian reform program
to United States security; and would undermine the
is unaccounted for. EW has also learned that tracts of
credibility of the Reagan Administration's foreign policy
land that formerly supported up to 7,000 people now
in the eyes of Latin America and the world.
support less than 1,000. There is enormous confusion
Currently, efforts to hold the line in El Salvador
over land titles. USAID has commissioned a study to
against Cuban-backed Communist insurgents are being
determine the legal basis for the extension of clear titles,
eroded by the following factors:
but our sources report that no serious consideration is be-
ing given to the issue of compensation for expropriated
1.
Salvadoran field commanders who have been
land. This is adding to the country's divisions by deepen-
trained by the United States in modern counter-
ing the frustrations of the Right.
insurgency warfare strategy and tactics and have the
determination and understanding to put them into action
4.
The Salvadorans, under U.S. guidance, have been
are being thwarted by the military bureaucracy in the
unable to pursue a "forward strategy" involving hot
capital led by the Minister of Defense and Public Securi-
pursuit of FMLN insurgent bands into their sanctuaries
ty, General Jose Guillermo Garcia Merino. As a result,
across the Honduran border. For its part, the United
the government forces are applying quasi-conventional
States has so far proved incapable of decisive moves to
tactics against the leftist Farabundo Marti National
reclaim any of the territory lost recently to hostile
Liberation Front (FMLN) irregulars maintaining strong
regimes in Central America and the Caribbean-Nica-
points in the larger towns and rarely venturing quickly or
ragua, Suriname and Grenada-which provides a morale
far into the countryside. The result is that Soviet-backed
boost for the Salvadoran rebels.
insurgents have considerable freedom of movement and
action and are suffering relatively few casualties among
5.
The United States has been completely ineffective
their main fighting forces while morale suffers among
in discouraging the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua
government troops and their field commanders. Still the
from making its territory available not only for training
conventional warfare formula remains attractive to some
FMLN forces and as the operational headquarters of the
senior military officials who are profiteering from the
U.S. military aid programs, importing support equip-
ment such as generators and trucks that can be easily-
and illicitly-resold to the private sector or even shipped
to overseas firms.
CONTENTS
2.
The certification process, by which the U.S. Con-
How to win in El Salvador
gress passes judgment every six months on whether
1
or not the President's request to extend the aid program
Tremors around the Gulf
4
to El Salvador (and the savage rhetoric from the Left that
Anti-US terrorism in West Germany
5
surrounds it), has created a miasma of uncertainty in El
Salvador about the reliability of the United States. Cer-
Europe's Socialists and the freeze
5
tification is also deeply humiliating to all of El Salvador's
Focus on France
7
anti-Communists and especially to the political, military
and business leaders.
Flashpoints: USSR; Colombia; USSR and
Japan; Hong Kong; Castro in Europe;
3.
Over the past three years, El Salvador has been re-
West Germany
8
duced to an economic disaster area. In large part,
this is the result of an extended campaign of guerrilla
PAGE 2
EARLY WARNING
FMLN leadership, but also as a vast warehouse for their
This is the same Col. Paredes who publicly threatened to
supplies and weapons sent via Cuba from the Warsaw
expel U.S. Ambassador Ellis Briggs, Jr. a few weeks ago,
Pact regimes, Vietnam and now, our sources report, even
claiming the Ambassador was "spying." The intelligence
from Soviet clients like Algeria and Libya. It is difficult
chief of Panama's National Guard is Colonel Manuel An-
for the government in San Salvador to envisage a real
tonio Noriega who has close Cuban ties and travels fre-
cessation in the civil war not linked to fundamental
quently to Havana for consultations. In short, while only
changes in Managua.
praise has been heard for Ochoa's military capabilities, it
Elections are scheduled to be held in El Salvador next
would be misleading to characterize him as "right-wing."
December. But the auguries are not good for a smooth
The history of Latin America is replete with examples of
transition to an elected presidency. The elections of
"conservative" military men who turned into left-of-cen-
March 1982 demonstrated overwhelming support for the
ter "populists" overnight-and vice-versa.
democratic process, but that was supposed to bring
decisive leadership and the defeat of the insurgents. This
failure has spawned growing disenchantment which the
FMLN's supporters have encouraged. The Constituent
Assembly has not only failed to provide decisive political
BR
NONDURAS
leadership, but it has so far failed to produce what it was
MERICO
created to supply-a new constitution. (The committee
charged with drafting a constitution meets rarely and
GUATEMALA
NONDURAS
some members have never turned up for a single session.)
All the same, a multiplicity of presidential candidates is
expected.
ELSALVADOR
NICARAGUA
The current President (ad interim) Alvaro Magana
Borja will be one of them, although he is handicapped by
the indecisiveness he has demonstrated in the presidency
COSTA
RICA
and by his close links with an opportunistic circle led by
Minister of the Presidency Francisco Jose Guerrero whose
PANAMA
members have very visibly enriched themselves over the
past year, perhaps in connection with the U.S. aid pro-
gram.
Indeed, the presidential succession in El Salvador may
be traumatic. The Christian Democrats, the largest
single party, already are engaged in furious internal
The intense political activity on-going until the
disputes. The former Junta president, Jose Napoleon
December elections is expected to fractionalize existing
Duarte, is lobbying to become his party's candidate. One
political alliances. This process may weaken the
of his prime challengers, Foreign Minister Fidel Chavez
Salvadoran government's ability to wage an effective
Mena, popular with the American Embassy, is young,
anti-guerrilla campaign.
ambitious, personable and a political moderate, but lacks
Meanwhile, a well-orchestrated international network
leadership ability. Whoever emerges as the Christian
of propaganda fronts continues to deluge Congress and
Democratic candidate can probably count on backing
the U.S. media with material designed to generate sup-
from Venezuelan President Luis Herrera Campins.
port for the Castroite guerrillas and discredit U.S.
However, Herrera Campins is being distracted from
policies and the Salvadoran government. A captured
regional political affairs by economic problems that vir-
report by Farid Handal, brother of the Salvadoran Com-
tually guarantee the defeat of COPEI, his own Social
munist Party leader, on an organizing visit to the United
Christian party, in Venezuela's next elections.
States in 1979, showed that this network of "solidarity
The Salvadoran right also is split. The charismatic but
committees" was established with the aid of the Com-
unstable Roberto d'Aubisson, Speaker of the Constituent
munist Party, U.S.A. and activists from the Institute for
Assembly, is among the presidential contenders. Another
Policy Studies, National Council of Churches and U.S.
is Vice President Gabriel Mauricio Gutierrez Castro of
Peace Council. The office of California Congressman
the ARENA party.
Ron Dellums was used as an organizing base for Handal
An intriguing third choice is Lieutenant Colonel
in Washington. Recently released U.S. intelligence
Sigifredo Ochoa, currently living in exile at the Inter-
reports confirm that the establishment of the interna-
American Defense College in Washington, D.C. As
tional El Salvador "solidarity committee" network was a
discussed in our first issue, Ochoa was removed from his
Soviet "active measures" effort.
military command in Cabanas province by Defense
The effectiveness of this apparat is evident not only
Minister Garcia because he presumed to criticize the
from the fact that the terrorization of El Salvador's rural
management of the war by the military bureaucrats in
population receives far less attention in the U.S. media
San Salvador.
than abuses attributed to government forces or the Right,
Of late, Ochoa has become the darling of the Right in
but from clandestine broadcasting by the FMLN guer-
El Salvador, but he is a complex figure. For example,
rillas themselves which reflect their high satisfaction with
reliable intelligence sources indicate that Ochoa is closely
the image they are maintaining abroad.
associated with the highly ambitious commander of the
Ironically, while leftist politicians like Guillermo Ungo
Panamanian National Guard, Colonel Dario Paredes.
and Ruben Zamora of the Democratic Revolutionary
PAGE 3
APRIL 1983
Front (FDR) based in Mexico continue to serve as
Placing effective command in the hands of front-
spokesmen for the guerrillas, sources with access suggest
line officers who are motivated to fight and grasp the
that both are increasingly nervous over the
principles of counter-insurgency operations. The
precariousness of their situation. While presently useful
Salvadoran military have been floundering under the
as "ambassadors" of the FMLN to Western governments
direction of Defense Minister Garcia, whose private
and political parties, they realize that they have little
wealth is a source of scandal. (He owns expensive homes
voice in the conduct of the guerrilla campaign and that
in Miami and Tampa and recently flew a large party of
should the FMLN attain a full victory, they might be
guests and a mariachi band to Florida to celebrate a
swept aside just as were the non-Castroite leaders of the
daughter's wedding.)
Nicaraguan revolution once the Sandinistas seized
Civil action and psychological operations have been
power. This may explain Zamora's fervor in approaching
the exception rather than the rule. Field intelligence
moderate leaders in San Salvador and making it known
needs to be expanded and restructured, pooling the
that he is interested in a negotiated salida- a "way out."
resources of the Army, the National Guard, and the
Nevertheless, it is clear that even the FMLN hard-liners
Treasury Police. A more imaginative policy for encourag-
backed by their Cuban and Soviet advisers have been
ing defectors and informers should be adopted. (Govern-
urging negotiations to form a coalition government that
ment forces are often reduced to fighting a lumbering,
would include the FMLN forces rejected so strongly in
quasi-conventional war-barreling down the roads in
the 1982 voting.
their trucks in the wake of a guerrilla attack, frequently
It must also be recognized that negotiations and forma-
to run into an ambush.)
tion of a coalition government with the FMLN (which
It is less important who holds the title of Defense
would still be able to retain its camps inside Honduras
Minister than who exercises de facto control of opera-
and its supply depots and bases in Nicaragua) would not
tions. Nonetheless, there is a widespread feeling among
alter the basic problem in El Salvador and the region as a
effective Salvadoran officers-and among U.S. military
whole. Yet as noted in the last issue, a number of influen-
advisers in the country-that Garcia must go.
tial State Department "non-interventionists" are quietly
urging such a change in U.S. policy so as to allow the
Arranging for military aid from third countries. The
U.S. to back away from its Hemispheric responsibilities
size of the U.S. military aid program for El
and leave open Central America and the Caribbean to
Salvador-both in money and in manpower-is relative-
further destabilization from Havana and Moscow. Also
ly puny. It should be supplemented by increased aid from
clear is the fact that present U.S. policy which allows the
third countries that can be offered discreet inducements
Salvadoran insurgents permanent sanctuary in
by Washington to lend their support. Third countries
Nicaragua cannot lead to lasting success. As long as this
that might be involved include Chile (a traditional friend
remains, the Soviet leadership and its Cuban proxy will
of El Salvador that is currently supplying ammunition),
be able to tie down the physical and psychological
South Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and Israel (already
resources of the United States in Central America.
pursuing a forward policy in Central America). One
When the Reagan Administration took office, it
possibility that has already been canvassed in some
evinced an accurate understanding of the strategic nature
defense circles in Washington is that such third countries
of the conflict in El Salvador. So far, however, it has fail-
might take over the entire military aid program, thus
ed to find the appropriate tactics. This has left an open-
freeing El Salvador from the numbing effects of the U.S.
ing for the reemergence of the idea of a "negotiated set-
certification cycle.
tlement" a la Vietnam pressed by elements in the State
Department. EW's analysts believe that this could prove
Rebuilding the economy. At present, some 30 per-
to be a prescription for the total demoralization of the
cent of El Salvador's 1982 coffee crop is sitting in
resistance in El Salvador and ultimate political collapse.
warehouses. A simple way to improve the country's
A decisive crossroads will be reached in El Salvador
economic plight is for the United States to sponsor the
this summer, between May and August. May is the plant-
purchase of Salvadoran coffee at premium prices. This is
ing season. August will initiate the next "certification of-
all the more important because this year's
fensive"-the next phase of the campaign to cut off U.S.
harvest-despite the guerrillas-is expected to be a
aid. This period will be the ideal time for the guerrillas to
bumper one. The U.S. private sector should be encourag-
escalate their offensive, using positional warfare to tie
ed to help out by sending experts to report on how incen-
down government troops while their own mobile units
tives for investment, or reinvestment, might be
encircle and destroy regular units and strike at larger
developed.
cities-maybe even the capital. One military observer
tells us that he believes the guerrilla objectives in this new
Seizing the psychological offensive. Very little has
phase will be major urban centers like San Miguel, Santa
been done to date to concert a psychological warfare pro-
Ana and Usulatan. He thinks there is also a possibility
gram that would dwell not only upon the brutal treat-
that if the government's position continues to deteriorate,
ment of the civil population by the guerrillas and their
the rebels could risk an operation against San Salvador
Communist backing, but would intelligently exploit the
before October of this year.
evident divisions in their own ranks.
EW believes that the only chance of upholding a non-
Some of these proposals are already circulating in top
Marxist political order in El Salvador is to mount a strong
Administration circles in Washington. Whether or not
military offensive geared to the realities of irregular war-
they are adopted will probably decide whether
El
fare. To create the conditions for this would involve:
Salvador will go the way of Nicaragua.
PAGE 4
EARLY WARNING
Tremors Around the Gulf
threat of social unrest and possible sabotage. One induce-
ment they may have held out to the Libyans to relay this
message was that Saudi Arabia would refrain from
Unconfirmed reports from Teheran indicate that
criticizing Qaddafi's African adventures, including his ef-
Ayatollah Khomeini, now 82, recently suffered a stroke.
forts to overthrow Sudan's President Numeiri.
A large team of cardiac specialists headed by Dr. Manafi
In any event, there is cause for Saudi unease about the
is said to have been rushed from the well-equipped heart
current drift of events in the Gulf region, despite the ar-
disease center in the capital to the Ayatollah's retreat at
rival of a new Pakistani brigade in the country last
Jamaran.
January. For a start the weakening of OPEC and the
Khomeini's death could open a power-vacuum in Iran
sharp decline in oil prices have reduced Saudi influence.
which the Soviets (amongst others) would not be slow to
The PLO build-up in South Yemen. There are in-
exploit. Significantly, the Farsi-language broadcasts the
dications that South Yemen is in the process of becoming
Soviets put out over their transmitter in Baku have con-
the main military base for the PLO. The Marxist regime
tained only the mildest criticism of the recent arrest of
in Aden has long provided sanctuary and training
Tudeh (Communist) Party leaders in Iran. Instead,
Radio Baku has directed earnest entreaties to Khomeini
facilities for 'rejectionist' Palestinian forces, notably
to act against a clique of "reactionary" mullahs who are
George Habash's leftist PFLP, as well as for international
terrorists who have received instruction from Soviet, East
supposedly conspiring against him and his revolution. It
German and Cuban advisers. But Saudi concern is fo-
is clear that the Soviets have more than one iron in the
fire in Iran, and that they are actively seeking to divide
cused on the fact that South Yemen is a major source of
Khomeini's loyalists in the hope of exploiting confusion
support for radicals from neighboring Arab states whose
aim is to overthrow moderate regimes. For example, the
that would result from his death.
National Democratic Front of North Yemen is largely
While Khomeini's death might not be altogether
unwelcome news in Riyadh, the Saudi government could
controlled by Aden, which supplies arms and ammuni-
tion. The South Yemenis have also supplied specialist
be endangered by the ensuing regional destabilization.
The Saudis were repeatedly threatened by the Iranians in
training in guerrilla warfare and sabotage of oil installa-
tions for Saudi dissidents. Though for the moment, South
the course of the OPEC price negotiations, and these
threats extended to a none-too-subtle warning of possible
Yemeni leader al-Hasani seems to be cultivating an image
Iranian military action. Such saber-rattling from
of responsible leadership through a partial detente with
both North Yemen and Oman, the arrival of large
Teheran cannot be entirely discounted in view of infor-
mation EW has received from a recent KGB defector who
numbers of Palestinian guerrillas in Aden since the Israeli
states that members of Khomeini's fanatical Revolu-
invasion of Lebanon (many of them PFLP and DFLP
tionary Guards-the Pasdaran-have been trained to
leftist radicals who were unhappy with curbs imposed on
pilot U.S. jet fighters.
their activities in other Arab states) is not reassuring for
the Saudis or the other moderate Gulf states. Further-
While media attention has been rivetted on a series of
international economic crises-the OPEC fiasco, the risk
more, South Yemen continues to be used by the Soviets
of defaulting Third World debtor-countries, the strains
and their satellites as a major transshipment point for
within the European Monetary System-serious
arms consignments to proteges throughout the Arab
challenges to the stability of the Gulf region are reemerg-
world, and large caches of weapons are still being
ing that could have a dramatic effect on world markets if
assembled along the borders with both North Yemen and
Saudi Arabia.
they are not contained.
Secret diplomacy in the Middle East took an intriguing
The progress of the Iran-Iraq war. A Spanish
twist when Sayyid Qaddaf ad-Dam arrived in Riyadh in
reporter recently asked one of the key figures in the Iran-
mid-February, and had a private audience with Saudi
ian regime, President Sayyid Ali Khamene'i, whether
Arabia's King Fahd. Qaddaf ad-Dam is one of the most
the objectives for Teheran in the war with Iraq included
powerful men in the Libyan regime, the chief of subver-
the capture of the oil port of Basra and the capital,
sive operations in Colonel Qaddafi's secret service and a
Baghdad. Khamene'i responded: "I must tell you that all
close personal confidant of the dictator himself. Some
the aims which you have mentioned form part of our
Arab intelligence sources believe that Qaddaf ad-Dam is
aim. The Wal Fajr operation is one of great magnitude
a leading contender to succeed Qaddafi. They also sug-
and will be decisive." Ayatollah Khomeini and his
gest that his visit to Riyadh was made as a result of a
spokesmen continue to insist that their goal is nothing less
Saudi initiative. The main item on the agenda: Iran.
than the overthrow of the present Iraqi regime, and some
It appears that the Saudis have been seeking to use
military observers believe that this is not beyond their
Libya as an intermediary in dealing with the Ayatollah.
grasp. The Iraqis managed to repel an Iranian attempt to
EW sources report that King Fahd and his advisers gave
break through into the heartland of the country, but they
the Libyan envoy details of Iranian involvement in a
have been forced back into a defensive posture, and there
number of subversive operations against the Saudi
have been increasing attacks by the pro-Khomeini Iraqi
monarchy. The Saudis are said to have suggested that
Shi'ite "mujaheddin" behind the lines. Last month the
they were ready to cut back sharply on their support for
Iraqi rebels claimed to have launched successful rocket
Saddam Hussein's regime in the Iraq-Iran war in return
attacks on oil storage facilities, pipelines and turbine
for an Iranian undertaking not to stir up trouble inside
pumps in the Ayn Zalah area. The emergence of a regime
Saudi Arabia, where the presence of a large Shi'ite com-
hostile to the Saudis in Baghdad would have a profoundly
munity in the eastern oilfields area holds out a permanent
destabilizing effect throughout the Gulf region.
APRIL 1983
PAGE 5
American missiles on FRG territory begin, the Green
SECURITY ALERT
Party is determined to carry out even direct actions
against these missiles during their transportation." This
interview, published in Bratislava Pravda, on March 8,
Anti-US terrorism in West Germany
raises the specter of nuclear terrorism.
Significantly, Libya's erratic dictator Colonel Qaddafi
West German security officials expect an upsurge in ter-
has become the patron of some Green Party luminaries.
rorist attacks on U.S. civilian and military targets in com-
Otto Schily, Bundestag deputy for the Greens (and a
ing months. Three distinct groups probably will be in-
Berlin lawyer) is a frequent visitor to Tripoli. Gertrude
cluded: (1) Baader-Meinhof-style revolutionary cells; (2)
Schilling, one of the Greens' more voluble "thinkers," has
the militant fringe of the "peace" movement; and (3)
referred to Qaddafi as a "pacifist mystic."
elements of the neo-Nazi underground. There is a com-
Admiration for the Libyan leader and ties to the PLO
mon link: all have ties to Soviet-aligned Middle Eastern
form the bonds between the radical fringe of the peace
regimes and terrorist groups, and members of the
movement and West Germany's neo-Nazis. Bizarre as it
Baader-Meinhof-style groups and the neo-Nazis have
may sound, West German security sources are convinced
received terrorist training in PLO camps staffed in part
that neo-Nazis with Middle East connections will be in-
with Soviet-bloc advisers.
volved in a new wave of attacks on U.S. citizens, possibly
The Greens, who now have 27 deputies in the
in tactical alliance with elements of the Baader-Meinhof
Bundestag, are pledged to stop the deployment of
underground.
medium-range U.S. missiles in West Germany through
There is a recent, and ominous, precedent. Last
nationwide civil disobedience including the blockade of
December, there was a series of bomb attacks on U.S.
military bases and nuclear weapons stockpiles. Though
military personnel in Frankfurt. Investigators were at
the Greens disavow "violence against people," they are
first inclined to link the bombings to earlier operations by
helping to create a climate of opinion in which violent ex-
radical leftists. Since then, however, the West German
tremism will thrive. An ominous foretaste of what may
authorities have arrested several of the terrorists responsi-
lie in store was the bombing of the French consulate in
ble. They have made full confessions, and turn out to be
Amsterdam on February 10 by a militant Dutch group
members of a Nazi cell led by Walther Kexel. The group
that calls itself the "Autonomy Front."
is linked to the notorious Military Sports Group/Hoff-
The Greens favor West Germany's withdrawal from
man, some of those members were trained in PLO camps
the NATO alliance and are less than even-handed in their
in Lebanon prior to the June 1982 Israeli invasion.
denunciations of the defense plans of the two super-
In our assessment, the risk to U.S. businessmen travel-
powers. U.S.-educated Greens leader Petra Kelly said in
ing in West Germany has increased, as has the sophistica-
a recent interview with a French magazine, Le Point,
tion of the methods used by the local terrorist networks.
that her party "does not equate" Russia's SS-20s with
For example, the Kexel Group not only disposed of an im-
U.S. cruise and Pershing missiles. "The Soviets do not
pressive arsenal (including advance-type detonators for
want war in Europe," she explained. "The real threat of
car bombs) but had assembled a collection of U.S.
war comes from Reagan."
military uniforms and other disguises. The major leftist
Green Party secretary-general Lucas Bechmann
terrorist organizations-the Red Army Fraction (RAF)
boasted to a Soviet bloc correspondent immediately after
and the Revolutionary Cells (RZ)-are believed to be
the March 6 elections that "should the deployment of
even better-supplied.
Europe's Socialists and the Freeze
The campaign to get the U.S. Congress to pass a resolu-
ecutive bureau of Holland's Christian Democratic Appeal
tion calling for an immediate freeze on the testing and
(CDA) not to join with the Inter-Church Peace Council
deployment of nuclear weapons, if successful in the
(IKV)-the most influential Dutch peace movement-in
House of Representatives when the issue is revived after
planning and sponsoring a huge anti-nuclear demonstra-
the Easter recess, will create new headaches for
tion scheduled for October 29. Despite the leak of two
America's strongest allies in Europe. In particular, it
reports by the Dutch security service last November,
would complicate life for Helmut Kohl's center-right
documenting the involvement of Soviet agents with the
coalition in West Germany by encouraging the opposi-
IKV, this church-based organization remains a highly ef-
tion Social Democrats (SPD), not to mention the Greens,
fective unilateral disarmament lobby, and the vote by the
to oppose deployment of cruise and Pershing-II missiles
CDA executive on March 14 is only round one in a
under any circumstances. Passage of the freeze resolution
continuing fight.
could also diminish the ability of the Kohl government to
Meanwhile, in the aftermath of their rout at the polls
influence its West European partners to stand by the
on March 6, West Germany's SPD leaders face the task of
1979 NATO decision in favor of deployment of medium-
trying to restore cohesion in their party and of strength.
range missiles to match the already deployed Soviet
ening its state, district and local organizations. EW sees
arsenal of SS-20s.
little prospect that the moderate wing of the party will
It was Kohl's Christian Democrat Party (CDU), for ex-
succeed in recapturing control, at least in the making of
ample, that played the key role in persuading the ex-
defense policy. The pro-NATO forces in the SPD have
PACE 6
EARLY WARNING
been seriously weakened by the withdrawl from politics
Within weeks of its first get-together, the Scandilux
of Georg Leber, a former defense minister, and the
group invited the SPD and the British Labour Party to
defeat of Peter Corterier, a former state secretary in the
send delegates to its meetings, and Bahr was promptly
foreign ministry, in the contest for his parliamentary seat
designated by Willy Brandt for this purpose. Written off
at the last elections. EW expects that at its next congress,
by some diplomats and reporters last year as moribund,
scheduled for the end of this year, the SPD will take a
Scandilux is currently very much alive, with Bahr as a
stand against deployment of any American medium-
moving spirit. Last January Denmark's Social
range missiles. The consolation is that, even with the full
Democratic Party produced its own peace program, call-
support of the Greens in parliament on this issue, the SPD
ing for a freeze on all nuclear weapons, nuclear-free
will not have sufficient votes to impose a veto. But the
zones in Europe, continuation of the Geneva talks
risk of civil disobedience and extra-parliamentary
without any time limit (and no deployment of U.S.
violence will grow, as outlined in the "Security Alert"
missiles while they go on) and "a further reduction in the
section.
number of SS-20s"-which must have bemused the
And the pressure that prominent SPD figures can bring
Soviets, since they are increasing, not reducing, the
to bear, both nationally and internationally, should not
number of medium-range missiles pointed at Western
be underrated. To prepare for the possibility that the
Europe.
SPD would not be returned to office, Egon Bahr-a party
Both the Danish and the Norwegian Socialists (who
leader with close ties to the Soviet bloc-began as early as
have adopted a similar "peace" program) are in the op-
last November to orchestrate an intensive campaign to
position, but they command the largest factions in their
ensure (as he put it to some of his confidants) that it
respective parliaments and are well-placed to threaten
would be "impossible even for a Chancellor Kohl to ac-
minority conservative governments in their two coun-
cept the missiles." Bahr's key lieutenants in this cam-
tries.
paign, inside West Germany, are Oskar Lafontaine and
While Bahr works through Scandilux, Brandt-who
Erhard Eppler. Both of them, like Bahr, sit on the na-
was 100 percent confident that he would be reelected
tional executive of the SPD.
president of the Socialist International at its conference
in Portugal on April 7-10-is working to keep disarma-
Bahr counter-attacks
ment at the top of the SI's agenda. However, the SI is the
scene of a growing rivalry between French and West
German Socialists. With the SPD out of government, the
Bahr and his long-time patron, Willy Brandt, do not in-
French Socialist Party views itself as the "senior" partner
tend to confine their anti-deployment campaign to the
in the SI, and wants to take over the role of Moscow's
Federal Republic. Brandt (according to his close ad-
primary interlocutor among member-parties while ex-
visers) intends to hold onto the chairmanship of the SPD
panding its influence in the Third World and the Middle
until 1985. But he has no stomach for the feuding inside
East.
the party, and he wants to spend most of his time playing
the part of an "international statesman." Both Bahr and
Brandt are fully aware that whether West Germany will
finally be able to accept the missile deployment largely
The Suslov recipe
depends on the actions of allied governments in NATO,
that the disarmament movement is powerful in Belgium,
Holland, Denmark and Norway, and that there are ways
While much public attention has been focused on the col-
of stepping up pressure on the Italian and British govern-
orful dramatics of mass demonstrations and sit-ins, the
ments too.
conversion of many of Western Europe's Socialist parties
Bahr's special platform is the so-called "Scandilux"
to the cause of unilateral disarmament in recent years
grouping; Brandt's is the wider vehicle of the Socialist In-
poses the most serious challenge to the execution of
ternational. "Scandilux" was founded in January 1981 as
NATO strategy. One EW intelligence source quotes a
a result of the "action program on disarmament" adopted
remarkably revealing statement made by Mikhail Suslov
by the Socialist International the previous year. It
in December 1977 to a prominent West European
originally consisted of the Socialist parties of Norway,
Socialist visiting Moscow that underscores the impor-
Denmark, Belgium, Holland and Luxemberg. It was the
tance that the Soviets attribute to the SI in their "active
brainchild of Dutch Labor Party leader Joop den Uyl and
measures" campaign to disarm the West. Suslov, who
Flemish Socialist leader Karel van Miert, both vehement
died early last year, held the Kremlin's "active measures"
antagonists of the deployment of the Euromissiles. The
portfolio and was its most powerful member.
stated purpose of Scandilux is to advance the cause of
In discussing the Soviet-inspired campaign against the
disarmament. More specifically-although this has never
so-called "neutron bomb," Suslov made only passing
been publicly admitted-it seeks to apply pressure on Ita-
reference to demonstrations and other mass protests that
ly's Socialist and Social Democratic parties to upset
had captured the headlines. He declared his conviction
Italy's agreement to deploy cruise missiles in Sicily. A
that the Soviet Union would ultimately win the "battle of
reliable source among the Scandilux organizers told EW
wills" because of its ability to influence West European
that the leadership was crowing over the fact that Bettino
political parties-in particular the Dutch Labor Party,
Craxi, the leader of the Italian Socialists, took a weak
the Belgian Socialist Party (since 1979 two par-
line on deployment when he addressed the Italian Com-
ties-Flemish and Walloon), the British Labour Party
munist Party congress in the first week of March.
and the West German SPD.
APRIL 1983
PAGE 7
Focus on France
revolver. There were no traces of gunpowder on his
hands. The gun, a .357 Magnun, was located 15 feet
The economic traumas inflicted on France by President
away from the corpse, under a thin blanket of snow.
Mitterrand's brand of socialism are adding to strains in-
Could Nut have tossed his weapon that far away after
side his coalition government of Socialists and Com-
twisting his arm around to shoot himself in the back of
the neck?
munists which suffered the humiliation of a major reverse
in municipal elections last month. Reports from Paris
DGSE contacts say that, so far as they are aware, Nut
had no reason to commit suicide. Since he had worked
outline other aspects of the French malaise:
closely with Italian investigators when they visited the
The Communists and the air-waves. Socialist-Com-
south of France on the "Bulgarian trail," one line of
munist rivalry is at its most intense in the struggle for
speculation is that Nut may have been the victim of a ter-
control of France's state-run TV and radio networks. The
rorist network that he was attempting to monitor.
Communists have succeeded in taking over FR3, Channel
Gray eminence at the Quai d'Orsay. Harris Puisais, a
3 on French television, where Michel Naudy (formerly
58-year-old left-wing technocrat, is the only man who
employed by the Communist Party organ L'Humanite)
has publicly contradicted his nominal boss, French
now controls the news coverage. Naudy brought in a
Foreign Minister Claude Cheysson. He is also a very ef-
L'Humanite colleague, Jean-Paul Girault, as editor of
fective influence in support of expanding economic links
FR3's station in Bordeaux which covers all of
between France and the Soviet bloc. Puisais has an in-
southwestern France.
teresting past. He has been a member of the National
Another Communist, Michel Cardoze, now is deputy
Committee of the "France-USSR Association" since 1958.
editor-in-chief of "France Inter" and controls all its
Between 1960 and 1981, when the Socialist Party as-
morning radio news programs which command the coun-
signed him to the Quai d'Orsay (where he is also head of
try's biggest morning audience as there is no breakfast-
the party's unofficial oversight committee), Puisais was
time television. As a follow-up, Cardoze and his fellow
successively a consultant to French companies on East-
Party members are seeking to dislodge France Inter's
West trade, the key official in the European Economic
evening news chief, Patrice Bertin. The newsroom re-
Community's East-West trade department in Brussels,
cently was flooded with pamphlets signed "Radio Liber-
then the director in charge of trade with the Soviet Bloc
ty, the Journal of the Communists of Radio France,"
for Air Industrie, a subsidiary of the conglomerate Saint-
blasting Bertin's 7 p.m. news programs, and accusing
Gobain-Point-a-Mousson while filling the same role at
him of disseminating "disinformation" on behalf of the
Saint-Gobain-Emballage, another subsidiary.
conservative opposition. Bertin wrote to Radio France
Puisais first surfaced from the obscurity of a
chairman Jean-Noel Jeanneney to demand an inquiry in-
to how this Communist tract had been disseminated in
mathematics teaching post in a lycee in Rochefort to
become a "technical adviser" in the Ministry of Sports in
his newsroom, but Jeanneney did not reply.
1950. The revolving door politics of France's Fourth
On TFI-TV Channel 1, Luc Mano, another former
Republic enabled him to switch jobs in several cabinets
reporter for L'Humanite, has been assigned to cover the
until he rose to the Prime Minister's office as chef de
Communist Partyl
cabinet to the Secretary of State when Pierre Mendes-
Secret service changes. Francois de Grossouvre, for
France was premier. Until the advent of De Gaulle's
many years Mitterrand's trusted confidant, is the man in
Fifth Republic in 1958, Puisais was chef de cabinet to the
the Elysee Palace with overall responsibility for supervis-
Minister of Fine Arts and later Minister of Education. He
ing France's secret services. Admiral Pierre Lacoste, the
then began devoting his energies to boosting East-West
recently appointed chief of the DGSE [see EW No. 1]
trade.
reports to Grossouvre if he wishes to relay something
A member of the national bureau of the left-of-center
directly to the President. It was Lacoste's service that
Radical Socialist Party from 1954-58, he later switched to
handled a secret multi-million dollar payment to the
the executive of the leftist Parti Socialiste Unifie (PSU)
Bolivian government that was a quid pro quo for the ex-
before landing a position on the executive of Mitterrand's
tradition of Nazi war criminal Klaus Barbie. Intelligence
Socialist Party. Puisais has lectured and written exten-
sources in Paris say that Lacoste has established a set of
sively on the Communist countries and the supposed need
priorities for future DGSE operations in which
for Western nations to expand trade with the East and
rebuilding good working relationships with the CIA,
deepen the process of detente.
West Germany's BND and Britain's MI-5 and MI-6
Thanks in part to Puisais' efforts, France has become
figures close to the top.
Russia's third most important trading partner (in annual
It is reliably reported that French intelligence has
volume) after West Germany and Finland. French firms
learned in some detail from an Iranian defector that the
are involved in the Kama truck plant, the world's biggest
Ayatollah's regime is planning to take revenge on France
producing up to 150,000 heavy trucks a year plus 100,000
for its arms deals with Iraq, and that Iranians now enter-
truck and tank engines. Commented a Soviet propaganda
ing and transiting France are being carefully monitored
organ that provides "legal covers" for KGB and GRU
by the DGSE and the DST.
agents, "With the French economy in crisis and
One of the many unsolved mysteries involving the
unemployment rampant, the role of Soviet orders pro-
French secret service is the death of Lieutenant Colonel
viding work for tens of thousands can hardly be
Bernard Nut, whose body was found on a deserted moun-
overestimated." France also imports large quantities of
tain road near Puget-Theniers in the south of France. He
Soviet fuel and raw materials-and its deficit in trade
had been shot in the back of the neck with his own
with the Soviet Union now tops $1.2 billion.
PAGE 8
EARLY WARNING
Soviet fears of satellite TV. A recent Moscow
Radio broadcast confirmed that the Soviets are deeply
FLASHPOINTS
alarmed by the prospect that Western governments-or
private corporations-might one day start beaming
Russian-language TV broadcasts into the USSR via
satellite. Science correspondent Boris Belitskiy explained
Andropov's failing health. Reports that Soviet
that "misuse of the media" causes "friction" and that
leader Yuri Andropov has undergone intensive care for a
"privately owned mass media in countries such as the
kidney disease have reopened speculation about the next
United States and Britain could be used to cause
stage of the Soviet succession-struggle. The recent eleva-
economic damage to other countries if they are allowed
tion of veteran Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko to the
to operate internationally in an uncontrolled fashion."
rank of a First Deputy Prime Minister is probably part of
For these reasons, he claimed, they have proposed that
a balancing act between rival survivors of the Brezhnev
"direct TV broadcasting to foreign countries should be
era. Gromyko lacks a significant personal power base in
subject to a special international convention." The
Moscow and is not a serious contender to take over from
Soviets must be relieved that, among all the Reagan Ad-
Andropov, although there is always an outside chance
ministration's plans to expand and improve broadcasting
that if the former KGB chief died tomorrow, the Foreign
to Communist countries, the possibility of Russian-
Minister could emerge as a compromise candidate. One
language satellite TV has yet to be seriously discussed.
man with his eye on Andropov's job is Geydar Aliyev, the
The Hong Kong deadline. The treaty under
59-year-old former career KGB man and Party boss in
which the New Territories-a vital part of the colony of
Azerbaijan who currently ranks as the de facto number
Hong Kong-were leased to Britain will expire on July 1,
two in Moscow. But he has to contend with powerful
1997. Neither the lease, nor the treaties by which Hong
enemies, including top figures in the General Staff.
Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula were ceded to
Britain in perpetuity in the last century are recognized by
Colombian kidnappings. EW sources in Colom-
the People's Republic of China. Nervousness about the
bian security predict an upsurge in kidnappings of
eventual fate of the colony is growing, and is reflected by
foreign businessmen and wealthy nationals this summer
the recent pull-out by a number of British business firms,
in the wake of the abduction of Texaco executive Ken-
including the exclusive Asprey's. EW sources in Hong
neth Bishop. The M-19 terrorist organization, with many
Kong maintain that the aggressiveness with which Bei-
members trained in Cuba and which has close links with
jing is likely to pursue its formal claim to the colony will
Castro's DGI, has been conducting a drugs-for-arms
be directly related to the state of its relations with
barter trade and is looking for increased exposure-and
Moscow. In the event of a rapprochement between the
more operational funds. M-19 leader Jaime Bateman
two Communist superpowers, they believe, the Chinese
recently concluded a deal with Libyan intelligence; the
pressure on the British government could increase
Libyans are now supplying weapons and cash and Col-
dramatically.
ombian recruits have been flown to Tripoli for training.
Such a Sino-Soviet detente appears far-off. But there
are some interesting recent straws in the wind. For exam-
Soviets squeeze Japan for credits. The Soviets
ple, Russian students, research fellows and teachers are
have laid it on the line to top officials of the Tokyo Bank,
scheduled to arrive at Beijing, Nanjing and Shanghai
the Sumitomo Bank and the Mitsubishi Bank: If the
universities this year after a 23-year absence.
Japanese want major plant orders from Russia, they will
Castro's European visit. Cuba's President Fidel
have to agree to huge medium-term fixed-interest loans.
Castro is due to visit France, Spain, Austria and Sweden
The message was initially delivered during the visit to
later this year in his first-ever trip to Western Europe.
Moscow by a large Japanese commercial delegation in
Behind the scenes, the coordinator for this tour was Regis
February. Since then, a debate has been raging in
Debray, the French guerrilla theorist-turned-presidential
Japanese banking circles over how to proceed. EW's Tok-
adviser.
yo sources say that Mitsubishi is keen to extend new cred-
its to Moscow because overseas markets for the major in-
Leftist magazine with top-secret NATO
dustrial companies in the group have been shrinking, and
documents. West German police unearthed copies of
they are hungry for plant orders from abroad. Sumitomo
NATO documents classified Cosmic-the highest level of
is said to be in a similar position. Officials at both banks
classification-in the Hamburg editorial offices of the
rate the Soviet Union as a more reliable debtor than some
magazine Konkret. They included ultra-sensitive nuclear
other countries. (The Iraqis have told Mitsubishi Heavy
plans. A major investigation has been initiated by the
Industries and Chiyoda Chemical Engineering-both of
Federal Chancellery. The case illustrates a symbiosis be-
which belong to the Mitsubishi group-that they want to
tween Soviet espionage and sections of the left-wing
defer payments on outstanding loans for two years.)
press that is by no means unique to West Germany. The
Weighing against these feelings is a concern not to offend
former husband of the terrorist leader Ulrike Meinhof
the U.S. government, reinforced by an appeal from both
(who were both involved with Konkret in its early days)
the Japanese Foreign and Finance Ministries to refrain
has admitted that the magazine was created with the aid
from making new loans to the Soviets.
of a secret budget from East Germany.
Published by Mid-Atlantic Research Associates, Inc.: P.O. Box 1523, Washington, D.C. 20013. [301/621-4164]
Editors: Robert Moss and Arnaud de Borchgrave. Research Analysis: John Rees. © Copyright 1983.