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Grain Embargo 1981 – USSR (4)
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Grain Embargo 1981 – USSR (4)
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Jack F. Matlock, Jr.'s Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.) Subject Files
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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Digital Library Collections This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections. Collection: Matlock, Jack F.: Files Folder Title: USSR - Grain Embargo 1981 (4) Box: 27 To see more digitized collections visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digital-library To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library inventories visit: https://reaganlibrary.gov/document-collection Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected] Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/citing National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/ WITHDRAWAL SHEET Ronald Reagan Library Collection Name MATLOCK, JACK: FILES Withdrawer JET 5/10/2005 File Folder USSR-GRAIN EMBARGO 81 4/5 FOIA F06-114/8 Box Number 27 YARHI-MILO 2704 ID Doc Type Document Description No of Doc Date Restrictions Pages 9990 CABLE 252127Z APR 81 5 4/25/1981 B1 R 9/30/2008 F06-114/8 9988 CABLE 292345Z APR 81 8 4/29/1981 B1 R 9/30/2008 F06-114/8 9989 CABLE 011925Z MAY 81 2 5/1/1981 B1 9987 PAPER REACTION TO LIFTING GRAIN EMBARGO 2 ND B1 B3 PAR 3/16/2011 F2006-114/8 Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] B-1 National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] B-2 Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] B-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] B-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] B-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] B-7 Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] B-8 Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] B-9 Release would disclose geological or geophysical information concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of gift. Hatg Says U.S. Will Cut All Trade. With Soviet if It Moves Into Poland New York Times, 4/25/81, Pg, A1 By The Associated Press WASHINGTON, April 25 - Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. said today "Were there to be an internal or exter- that if the Soviet Union invaded Poland, nal aggression by the Soviet Union, there the Reagan Administrat would impose would be an across-the-board" cut-off in a ban on all United States trade with the trade, he said. Soviet Union and would reimpose the Mr. Haig's statement was a reiteration grain embargo. of the position of the North Atlantic Mr. Haig said that was President Rea- Treaty Organization, whose members re- gan's position. He added that it had been solved in December that they would halt made known in "international forums." all trade with Moscow in the evert of President Reagan, who lifted the grain Soviet military intervention in Polarid., curbs yesterday, has said he opposes The Secretary of State discussed the using a grain embargo alone as punish- President's decision to end the grain ment for Soviet aggression because it curbs during an interview. burden. made farmers bear the entire economic Opposed Reagan Action "Yes, if there was an invasion of Po- Mr. Haig is known to have arg ed land, there's no question about it, Mr. against Mr. Reagan's decision to end the Haig replied when asked if a new grain grain embargo, saying it could send a embargo would be imposed as part of the wrong "signal" at a time when Soviet United States response to Soviet military forces were poised in and around Poland, intervention in Poland. But he made clear he supported the move now that it has been announced. He said President Reagan had to take into account "certain domestic consider- ations." "His farm bill and even his eco- Continued on Page 12, Column 3 Haig Warns Soviet of Ban on Trade Continued From Page 1 troops "repressing national sovereignty in Afghanistan and we cannot accept this as a normal situation." nomic program-could be in jeopardy on "And I don't think the President has this issue," Mr. Haig added. any intention of doing so," he declared. Noting that Mr. Reagan had promised The Secretary said President Reagan during the campaign to lift the embargo, would have lifted the curb on his first day Mr. Haig said it was "the President's in office if it had not been for "tensions in very strong conviction to live by his com- the international environment, not just mitments, and in this instance his com- Afghanistan, but also in Poland." mitment was to lift that grain embargo." While the situation in Poland has "I think the most important thing we eased, Mr. Haig cautioned against any must prevent in the wake of lifting the expectations that the crisis had ended. 'The basic trend has been to get closer embargo is the perception that it was ex- and closer to the point of no return of clusively the consequence of a perceived Soviet toleration" of events in Poland," Soviet moderation in Poland," he added. he said. "You have an action and a reac- Mr. Haig added that it would be a mis- tion, but there is usually a trend." take to "let Poland exclusively dominate our assessment of future relations with the Soviet Union and return to an attitude Your Money of normal if the situation in Poland is not Saturday in Business Day The New York Times aggravated." He said there still are 85,000 Soviet Reagan Expected to End Soviet Grain Curb Today The limit on grain sales is commonly metric ton order, but indicated the United called an "embargo," but that is an im- States would continue to abide by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is though precise term. to have purchased about 32 million met agreed 6 to 8 million metric tons permit- latt Continued From Page Al spokesman, said this afternoon that Mr. The United States and the Soviet Union ted the Russians. ric tons, the department said. recess on Monday, the White House wants Haig was standing by his previously have a five-year agreement, expiring A similar restriction was levied on Officials said that if Mr. Reagan went that such a move would "send the wrong to remove the grain curb as an irritant in signal" at a time of Soviet military stated position, pending a "final deci- Sept. 30, that allows the Russians to pur- 1980-81 exports. The Russians have al- ahead with plans to end the limitation the relations with senators and representa- sion" by Mr. Reagan. Mr. Haig has said tives from farm states, officials said. The chase between six and eight million met- ready bought the eight million tons per- United States would offer about two mil- preparations for a possible intervention ric tons of grain a year, usually divided mitted them, lion metric tons of wheat to the Russians that he never believed the grain curb was Senate Agriculture Committee is sched- for delivery by Oct. 1. "In Poland. a useful tool but he felt that it would be a uled to begin putting the finishing touches between wheat and corn. The accord per- Russians Buy Grain Elsewhere Administration officials said Mr. Haig mits the Soviet Union to buy more grain So far, no negotiations have been held mistake to lift the restriction. on the four-year omnibus farm bill on The Agriculture Department has esti- still opposed an end to the grain curb, but with the permission of the United States. with the Soviet Union on renewing the Monday. mated that the Soviet Union has been At the time of the Soviet invasion of Af- long-term grain agreement, but such "Mr. Reagan apparently chose to accept The Secretary has said that the situa- When asked for the State Department's able to buy enough corn and wheat in the advice of his White House political ad- ghanistan in December 1979, the Soviet talks are expected to take place, accord. tion around Poland remains potentially position on ending the curb, an Adminis- other markets to make up for the grain Union had been given permission to buy ing to officials. Soviet diplomats have visers and Agriculture Secretary John R. explosive and the Russians have done withheld by the United States. hinted, the officials said, that they would nothing around the world to merit an end tration official said, "You don't think 25 million metric tons 17 million above Block. to the curbs. anyone with any knowledge of foreign af- the 8 million limit. For the 1980-81 purchasing year, the like any new accord to have a higher ceil- fairs would support the end to the embar- Russians were believed to need 35 million Dean Fischer, the State Department In retaliation for Afghanistan, Mr. Car- ing than eight million metric tons, and With Congress returning from Easter go, do you?" metric tons of imported grain to augment ter canceled the additional 17 million some guarantee against a new curtail. 185 million metric tons grown in the ment. New President Times Is Expected to Act Today To End Curb on Grain Sale to Soviet sensitivity about the matter. Several sen- lor officials who are usually willing to dis- cuss policy matters on a confidential basis refused to talk about the pending decision, even though there have been persistent reports that it was imminent Larry Speakes, the acting White House spokesman, appeared disturbed today when reporters suggested that he was less than candid in insisting that the decl sion had not been made. He said he sented the line of questioning Campaign Pledge to Farmers The senior Administration official said Mr. Reagan wanted to carry out his cam- paign pledge to mers to end the export curb. He said the end to the grain curb also reflected an easing of Sovlet military pressure on Poland. Mr. Reagan had delayed lifting #the curb on the advice of Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. Mr. Haig argued Continued on Page A8, Column 1 By BERNARD GWERTZMAN Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON April President Reagan is expected to end the 15-month curb on United States grain exports to the Soviet Union tomorrow despite the State Department's reservations about the move, a senior Administration official Spokesmen for the White House and the State Department insisted today that "no final decision!! had been made on lifting the export curb, which was imposed by former President January 1980 after the Soviet Union's incursion in Af- But ghanistan the senior Administration official said the action was imminent. He said it was expected to take place tomorrow un- less Mr. Reagan changed his mind at the Cabinet scheduled to meet last minute. tomorrow a National Security Coun- cil session Officials said the grain deci- sion is expected to be taken at the Cabinet The meeting. White House has shown unusual said today GRAiN EMBARGO3 TAP158 *******C ONF IDENTIA L*******E COPY IN OP IMMED DE RUEHC #7221 1152140 0 252127Z APR 81 ZEX FM SECSTATE WASHOC TO ALL DIPLOMATIC POSTS IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0000 CONF DENTIAL IMITED OFFICIAL USE STATE 107221 E.O. 12065: N/A TAGS: EAGR, EEWT, EPAP, UR SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL DECISION TO LIFT THE PARTIAL GRAINS EMBARGO 1. AT 1200 LOCAL TIME, APRIL 24, THE WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCED THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION TO LIFT THE PARTIAL GRAINS EMBARGO. TEXT FOLLOWS: I AM TODAY LIFTING THE U.S. LIMITATION ON ADDITIONAL DECLASSIFIED AGRICULTURAL SALES TO THE SOVIET UNION AS I PROMISED NLRR F06-114/8#9990 TO DO DURING LAST YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. BY Los NARA DATE 9/30/08 MY ADMINISTRATION HAS MADE A FULL AND COMPLETE STUDY OF THIS SALES LIMITATION, AND I REACHED MY DECISION AFTER WEIGHING ALL OPTIONS CAREFULLY AND CONFERRING FULLY WITH MY ADVISERS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE CABINET AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSULTING WITH OUR ALLIES ON THIS MATTER. AS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, I INDICATED MY OPPOSITION TO THE CURB ON SALES BECAUSE AMERICAN FARMERS HAD BEEN UNFAIRLY SINGLED OUT TO BEAR THE BURDEN OF THIS INEFFECTIVE NATIONAL POLICY. I ALSO PLEDGED THAT WHEN ELECTED PRESIDENT I WOULD "FULLY ASSESS OUR NATIONAL SECURITY, FOREIGN POLICY AND AGRICULTURAL NEEDS TO DETERMINE HOW BEST TO SIT: COL,VP EOB: EURE,ECON WHSR COMMENTS: PAGE 01 SECSTATE WASHDC 7221 DTG:252127Z APR 81 PSN:039244 TOR: 115/21512 CSN:HCE749 *******C ONF IDENTIA L*******E COPY 39 *******C ONF DENT I A L*******E COPY TERMINATE" THE DECISION MADE BY MY PREDECESSOR. THIS ASSESSMENT BEGAN AS SOON AS I ENTERED OFFICE AND HAS CONTINUED UNTIL NOW. IN THE FIRST WEEKS OF MY PRESIDENCY I DECIDED THAT AN IMMEDIATE LIFTING OF THE SALES LIMITATION COULD BE MISINTERPRETED BY THE SOVIET UNION. I THEREFORE FELT THAT MY DECISION SHOULD BE MADE ONLY WHEN IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE SOVIETS AND OTHER NATIONS WOULD NOT MISTAKENLY THINK IT INDICATED A WEAKENING OF OUR POSITION. I HAVE DETERMINED THAT OUR POSITION NOW CANNOT BE MISTAKEN: THE UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIONS, HAS CONDEMNED AND REMAINS OPPOSED TO THE SOVIET OCCUPATION OF AFGHANISTAN AND OTHER AGGRESSIVE ACTS AROUND THE WORLD. WE WILL REACT STRONGLY TO ACTS OF AGGRESSION WHEREVER THEY TAKE PLACE. THERE WILL NEVER BE A WEAKENING OF THIS RESOLVE. END TEXT 2. IN DISCUSSING THIS DECISION, YOU SHOULD DRAW ON THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE AS APPROPRIATE, IN COORDINATION WITH PAO'S AND IO'S. 3. REASON FOR DECISION: --- BEFORE TAKING OFFICE THE PRESIDENT UNDERTOOK A COMMITMENT TO LIFT THE GRAINS EMBARGO WHICH WAS A LEGACY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION. IT HAS BEEN HIS CONCERN THAT THE EMBARGO WAS IMPOSING AN UNFAIR BURDEN ON THE U.S. FARMER AND THAT THE EMBARGO WAS NOT EFFECTIVE. THUS BY LIFTING THE EMBARGO THE PRESIDENT IS FULFILLING HIS PLEDGE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. -- THE PRESIDENT DELAYED ACTION UNTIL NOW TO ALLOW HIM TO COMPLETE HIS REVIEW OF THE EMBARGO POLICY AND BECAUSE HE BELIEVED THAT AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THE EMBARGO WOULD BE MISINTERPRETED BY THE SOVIET UNION. 4. EFFECT ON AFGHANISTAN POLICY: PAGE 02 SECSTATE WASHOC 7221 DTG:252127Z APR 81 PSN:039244 TOR: 115/21512 CSN:HCE749 *******C ONFIDENT I A L*******E COPY 4 clearly not indication of changed *******CONFIDENTIA L*******E COPY position on Afqhar rebels 1 1) position vis-a-vis -- THE DECISION TO LIFT THE GRAINS EMBARGO DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CHANGE IN THE OPPOSITION OF THE U.S. TO Afghanistan not changed THE SOVIET INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN OR THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE STATUS QUO THERE. WE WILL PERSEVERE IN OUR 2) other sanctions EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT PREDICATED measures are still UPON THE WITHDRAWAL OF SOVIET TROOPS. in place (technology) 3) package - Pakistan 2 THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION COVERS ONLY THE LIFTING OF & Afghan rebels THE PARTIAL EMBARGO ON AGRICULTURAL GOODS AND THE RELATED EMBARGO ON PHOSPHATES. OTHER AFGHAN-RELATED SANCTION MEASURES REMAIN IN PLACE. 5. POLAND: OUR LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO SHOULD NOT BE SEEN AS A "REWARD" FOR SOVIET GOOD BEHAVIOR, I.E., NON -INTERVENTION IN POLAND. THE PRESIDENT HAD EXPRESSED HIS COMMITMENT TO LIFT THE EMBARGO MANY MONTHS AGO. -OUR POSITION ON THE SITUATION IN POLAND IS UNCHANGED. WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE PROBLEMS FACING POLAND REMAIN SERIOUS, AND WE BELIEVE THAT THE POLISH GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE CAN AND SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO RESOLVE THESE PROBLEMS WITHOUT OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE OF ANY KIND. --WE RECOGNIZE THE CONTINUING HIGH STATE OF READINESS OF SOVIET FORCES IN AND AROUND POLAND AND THEIR CAPABILITY TO MOVE ON SHORT NOTICE. THE LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT SOVIET INTERVENTION IN POLAND WOULD EVOKE A PROFOUND AND LASTING RESPONSE FROM THE US THAT WOULD JEOPARDIZE THE ENTIRE RANGE OF U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS. 6. U.S. POSTURE TOWARD THE SOVIET UNION: THE LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A WEAKENING OF OUR POSITION TOWARDS THE SOVIET UNION. DURING ITS TERM IN OFFICE, THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION HAS COMMUNICATED CLEARLY TO THE SOVIET UNION THAT WE WILL RESIST SOVIET AGGRESSION AND INSIST ON SOVIET RESTRAINT. THE USSR SHOULD BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THAT AGGRESSIVE PAGE 03 SECSTATE WASHDC 7221 DTG:2521272 APR 81 PSN:039244 TOR: 115/21512 CSN:HCE749 *******C O NFIDENTIA L*******E COPY 49 *******C ONF DENTI A L*******E COPY BEHAVIOR IN POLAND OR ELSEWHERE WILL MEET WITH ANYTHING BUT THE MOST PROMPT, FIRM AND UNIFIED RESPONSE. -THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS TAKEN AND IS TAKING. CONCRETE STEPS TO ENABLE THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES TO DETER SOVIET THREATS TO OUR INTERESTS AND TO RESPOND TO CHALLENGES SHOULD THEY ARISE. 7. US-SOVIET GRAIN TRADE: --IN ACCORDANCE WITH ARTICLE VI OF THE EXISTING GRAINS AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL SALES OF CORN AND WHEAT FOR THIS FISCAL YEAR WOULD BE DETERMINED THROUGH CONSULTATIONS WITH THE SOVIETS, SHOULD THE SOVIETS DESIRE ADDITIONAL PURCHASES. DECISIONS ON A NEW LONG-TERM GRAINS AGREEMENT WITH THE SOVIETS HAVE NOT YET BEEN MADE. 8. EFFECT ON OTHER US-SOVIET TRADE ISSUES: THE LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS AN should not be INDICATION OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S FUTURE TRADE POLICY viewed as an TOWARD THE SOVIET UNION OR ANY OTHER ASPECT OF indicat. of the Admin's EAST-WEST ECONOMIC RELATIONS. THE ADMINISTRATION'S policy toward USSR. STUDY OF US-SDVIET TRADE POLICY AND EAST-WEST RELATIONS HAS NOT YET BEEN COMPLETED. THE POLICY TOWARD TRADE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL GOODS HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. AS IN THE PAST, EXPORT LICENSES FOR OTHER GOODS AND EQUIPMENT WILL BE REVIEWED AS NECESSARY ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS. THE LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO DOES NOT SIGNAL OUR ENDORSEMENT OF THE PROPOSED SIBERIAN GAS PIPELINE PROJECT. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF THIS PROJECT. THESE IMPLICATIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S CURRENT REVIEW OF EAST-WEST ECONOMIC RELATIONS. 9. ALLIES: -FRIENDLY COUNTRIES WHICH WERE PRINCIPALLY CONCERNED WERE CONSULTED IN ADVANCE OF THE PRESIDENT'S PAGE 04 SECSTATE WASHDC 7221 DTG:252127Z APR 81 PSN:039244 TOR: 115/21512 CSN:HCE749 *******C ONFIDENTI A L*******E COPY 5 *******C ONF IDENTI A L*******E COPY ANNOUNCEMENT TO LIFT THE EMBARGO. --WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT LIFTING THE EMBARGO WILL AFFECT ALLIED READINESS TO COOPERATE WITH US IN RESTRAINING SOVIET INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND ENHANCING WESTERN DEFENSE POSTURE. 10. THE SECRETARY'S SUPPORT OF THE DECISION: SECRETARY HAIG FULLY SUPPORTS THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION. --HE HAS CONSISTENTLY AGREED WITH THE PRESIDENT THAT THE EMBARGO WAS IMPOSING AN UNFAIR BURDEN ON THE U.S. FARMER. HIS CONCERN WAS ONLY THAT THE DECISION NOT SEND A WRONG SIGNAL CONCERNING OUR FOREIGN POLICY POSTURE TOWARD THE USSR. 11. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. HAIG BT PAGE 05 OF 05 SECSTATE WASHDC 7221 DTG:252127Z APR 81 PSN:039244 TUR: 115/21512 CSN:HCE749 *******C ONF 10 DENTIA L*******E COPY THE WASHINGTON POST Saturday, April 25. 1981 Reagan Ends Ban On Selling Grain To Soviet Union By Lee Lescaze Washington Post Staff Writer President Reagan lifted the embar- go on grain sales to the Soviet Union yesterday and said he is certain the Soviets and others around the world will not mistakenly think he has weakened his stand against Soviet ag- gression. "We will react strongly to acts of aggression wherever they take place," Reagan said in his statement an- nouncing that he was wiping out the most serious action the Carter admin- istration took to punish Moscow for its invasion of Afghanistan. Reagan entered office determined to establish a tough and consistent posture from which to deal with the Soviet Union. The lifting of the em- bargo, an action Moscow has sought, was Reagan's first major act bearing directly on the U.S.-Soviet relation- ship. It stands in apparent contrast to the president's anti-Soviet rhetoric - including his Jan. 29 charge that So- viet leaders will lie, cheat and commit any crime to achieve their goals - as well as such minor harassment of Moscow as depriving Ambassador Anatoliy F. Dobrynin of his unique State Department parking privilege and abruptly refusing a visa extension to Georgy Arbatov, Moscow's chief America-watcher. One day earlier, a White House of- ficial told reporters that one reason for the administration's decision to sell sophisticated AWACS radar planes to Saudi Arabia was the in- creasing Soviet threat in the Persian Gulf region. An administration official said the . decision to lift the grain embargo was made possible in part by lessened ten- sion in the world, including in Poland, where fears of a Soviet invasion have lessened. The official, who spoke to reporters on the understanding that he not be Reagan Ends Ban on Sales of Grain to Soviet Union PRESIDENT, From A1 from Secretary of State Alexander M. yesterday's statement, which was read "I have determined that our posi- identified. said he sees no contradic- Haig Jr. and others that lifting the for reporters and the television cam- tion now cannot be mistaken: The tion or inconsistency in the two ac- embargo would send the wrong signal eras by deputy White House press United States, along with the vast: to the Soviets. secretary Larry Speakes. majority of nations, has condemned tions. Senate Minority Leader Robert C. From Jan. 4, 1980, when President and remains opposed to the Soviet oc- Byrd (D-W.Va.) said the decision Carter imposed the embargo in re- Reagan stressed that his action was cupation of Afghanistan and other ag- "gives our nation an image of softness sponse to the Soviet invasion of Af-: taken in fulfillment of his campaign gressive acts around the world. We ghanistan, Reagan has been critical of promise, and called the embargo an and vacillation." will react strongly to acts of aggression it on the grounds that it asks Ameri- "ineffective national policy." He said Byrd added: "What we are being wherever they take place. There will can farmers to bear an unfair burden. that lifting the embargo has been told now, basically, is that the Soviets never be a weakening of this resolve." under constant review. should be rewarded for being good for At one point during the campaign, Neither. the unnamable administra- a few days. Lifting the embarga in no Reagan suggested that more appro- "In the first few weeks of my pres- tion official- nor Reagan. who made way enhances the security of Poland, priate and effective way. to punish idency, I decided that an immediate the decision on his first day back in and makes the United States appear Moscow might have been to blockade lifting of the sales limitation could be the Oval: Office since he was shot weak and lacking in resolve." Cuba. misinterpretad by the Soviet. Union," March 30, explained what action or Since taking office, Reagan has He has said repeatedly that the em- Reagan said "I therefore felt that my actions had led him to determine that been caught between his. campaign bargo did not hurt the Soviet Union, decision should be made only when it conditions now permitted him to lift piedge to eliminate the embargo - a which was able to buy the grain it. was clear that the Soviets and other the embargo. pledge that helped him win farmer's' needs from other nations. nations would not mistakenly think it The absence of a Soviet crackdown votes last November and warnings Reagen returned: to these themes in indicated a weakening of our position. against the Polish labor unions was only a partial factor in the decision, this official said, but he would not list other factors: "I would not peg the president's de- cision to lift the embargo to any spe- cific action." the official said, adding, "This is a principled decision and we insist that you accept it as such." He rejected the suggestion that the Soviets were being rewarded. Several diplomats who deal with the Soviet Union let it be known that they believe that lifting the embargo will make it harder to raily support for criticisms of the Afghanistan sit- uation and other Soviet actions. They also said that the decision will strengthen the hand of those Soviet Associated Prem leaders who argue that if Moscow Entering the Cabinet meeting, Reagan is cheered by (from left) Secretaries Watt and Haig, Deputy Secretaries Cariucci and Wright. stands firm the United States will ei ther change administrations or change policies and cave in. Even before the embargo officially ended at 4 p.m., Soviet officials were in the Agriculture Department build- ing here discussing grain purchases, Agriculture Secretary John R. Block said. If the Soviets appear eager to buy, the Americans appear no less eager to sell. By happy coincidence, USDA of- ficials discovered that about 6 million metric tons of corn that hadn't been noticed before are available for sale. In addition, officials said, there is plenty of wheat, and a handsome new crop is on the horizon. "I'm happy beyond comprehension. It has been a long 100 days," said Block, who had pushed for an end to the embargo. Wash Post, April 26, 1981, Pg C6 Editorial Changing the Rules of the Game? P ERHAPS President Reagan's lifting of the grain bargo and took related steps at the time of the Soviet embargo is an aberration, a one-shot exception invasion of Afghanistan in order to bring to bear on to a general policy of considering matters relating to the Soviet Union a range of sanctions at the peaceful the Soviet Union as parts of a strategic whole. This end of the spectrum. The idea was that, in this in- makes it quaint, even a bit touching, that he should stance, as serious as it was, peaceful measures were honor a campaign promise by taking a step that cuts to be preferred over others more toward the military so embarrassingly across the main thrust of his ap- end of the spectrum The idea behind that was es- proach to Soviet power. sentially gradualism: responding to reprehensible The scale of the administration's embarrassment Soviet behavior by starting small, taking one step at remains immense: President Reagan is helping Mos- a time, adding pressures as necessary and feasible, cow out of a grain pinch, breaking faith with the Af- making Soviet aggression costly, bringing the allies ghans and the Poles, setting a nothing-for-something along, giving diplomacy time to work, playing by the precedent in diplomacy, announcing that he caves to rules. This concept has been applied by successive domestic pressure groups, and licensing all manner American administrations in all situations where 8 of other would-be exporters, American and foreign, recourse to force has not been thought necessary, to try to sell to Moscow what they will. Still, if the and even in some situations where it has. lifting of the embargo is the exception that proves Now comes Ronald Reagan, who is taking out of the rule of American strategic determination, all is his own hands-conceivably, not just in this incident not lost. -the principal lever, trade, available for peaceful It occurs to us, however, that there is another pos- and gradual response to Soviet actions of which the sible explanation for Mr. Reagan's decision. Perhaps United States disapproves. By doing this he is point- he does not regard his anti-embargo assurances to ing himself toward, and to a degree committing him- the farmers so much as a "campaign promise" as an self to, a whole other manner of response, one in expression of a deeply felt free-market philosophy which he would conceivably reply to the Soviet that disposes him to resist controlling normal civilian Union more abruptly, more forcefully, more "effec- commerce, however that might be defined. This tively" and in a more unpredictable and unorthodox would lead not to a transient or accidental contradic- way. tion but a permanent one between his economic The lifting of the embargo could be the opening policy and the demands of a prudent conventional signal of a startling and radical new approach to foreign policy designed to contain Soviet expansion. Soviet power in which the perceptions and risks on It -would be, in our view, a politically costly and both sides would be quite different from what they strategically distracting contradiction, the more so have been until now. There have been hints of this for being witting and continuous. Can it be that this between some of Mr. Reagan's lines but nothing of is what Mr. Reagan has in mind? real substance. It will be interesting, not to say sur- If he is at all inclined in that direction, there is yet passingly important, to see if this is what the presi- another factor that must be worked into the equa- dent really has in mind-changing the rules of the tion. Jimmy Carter imposed the partial grain em- game-so that others can fairly discuss and judge it. 8 REUTER 1250 NL R128R A0545)12QTBYLRYR AM-GRAIN BY JAMES VICINI WASHINGTON, APRIL 27, REUTER -- THE UNITED STATES WILL SEEK TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF WHEAT SOLD TO THE SOVIET UNION UNDER A GRAIN DEAL TO BE NEGOTIATED BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, DEPUTY AGRICULTURE SECRETARY RICHARD LYNG SAID TODAY. THE TWO COUNTRIES OPENED TALKS ON POSSIBLE NEW GRAIN SALES IMMEDIATELY AFTER PRESIDENT REAGAN ON FRIDAY LIFTED THE GRAIN RA EMBARGO, IMPOSED IN RETALIATION FOR THE SOVIET INTERVENTION IN AFGHANISTAN IN DECEMBER 1979. MR LYNG TERMED THE INITIAL DISCUSSIONS VERY PRELIMINARY BUT ADDED: "WE ARE HOPING FURTHER TALKS WILL TAKE PLACE MOMENTARILY. DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS SAID LATER NEGOTIATIONS MIGHT RESUME THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY AT SOME UNDISCLOSED OVERSEAS LOCATION SUCH AS LONDON OR ROTTERDAN. THE CURRENT FIVE-YEAR GRAIN PACT WITH THE SOVIET UNION, DUE TO EXPIRE SEPTEMBER 30, PROVIDES FOR MINIMUM SALES OF SIX MILLION TONS A YEAR, DIVIDED EQUALLY BETWEEN WHEAT AND CORN. ""IF WE COULD, WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A HIGHER MINIMUM ON WHEAT, ## NR LYNG TOLD A MEETING OF FARM EDITORS. MORE 1253 JV R129R A0552)22QTBYLIYC AM-GRAIN 2 WASHINGTON MR LYNG PREDICTED A NEW GRAIN AGREEMENT WITH MOSCOW WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PACT. BUT PROBLEMS MAY EMERGE DURING. NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE KREMLIN'S DEMAND THAT ANY NEW GRAIN DEAL PROVIDE FOR FINANCIAL GUARANTEES AGAINST A FUTURE POLITICAL EMBARGO. SOVIET OFFICIALS EARLIER THIS MONTH TOLD U.S. CONGRESSMAN JAMES SENSENBRENNER THAT MOSCOW WOULD RENEW THE AGREEMENT IF CONVINCED THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE A RELIABLE, COMPETITIVE SUPPLIER AND IF IT INCLUDED THE FINANCIAL GUARANTEES. NOW THAT THE GRAIN EMBARGO HAS ENDED, MR LYNG ALSO EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE THAT CONGRESS WOULD APPROVE THE ADMINISTRATION"S PROPOSALS FOR NEW FARM LEGISLATION. ONE FACTOR BEHIND ENDING THE EMBARGO WAS CONCERN THAT KEEPING THE TRADE CURBS WOULD JEOPARDIZE THE ADMINISTRATION"S FARM BILL AND MR REAGAN'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM. ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS SAID THE RECENT EASING OF TENSIONS IN POLAND ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE END OF THE EMBARGO. MORE 1255 JV R130R A0560)LZQTZYRCZC AM-GRAIN 3 WASHINGTON IN A TELEVISED INTERVIEW YESTERDAY ON ABC, COMMERCE SECRETARY MALCOLM BALDRIGE SAID THE UNITED STATES HAD RECEIVED NO PRIVATE ASSURANCES FROM MOSCOW WITH REGARD TO THE SITUATION IN POLAND. BUT HE DISCOUNTED THE IDEA THE SOVIET UNION WOULD INTERPRET LIFTING THE GRAIN EMBARGO AS A SIGN OF WEAKNESS, SAYING THE ADMINISTRATION HAD ALREADY MADE CLEAR ITS HARD-LINE POLICY AGAINST SOVIET AGGRESSION. REUTER 1256 JU No 'Quid Pro Quo' Given U.S. for End Washington Post, 4/27/81, Pg.A1 Of Grain Embargo By Jane Seaberry Washington Post Staff Writor The Reagan administration received no "quid pro quo" from the Soviet Union in return for lifting a partial embargo on U.S. grain exports, Com- merce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige said yesterday, but he discounted the idea that the Soviets might read the decision as a sign of weakness. "I think there is no mistake in our intentions vis-a-vis the Soviets," Bal- drige said in an interview on "Issues and Answers" (ABC, WJLA), citing "hard signals, tough signals" from both the president and Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. During the campaign, President Reagan frequently criticized the em- bargo, imposed in January, 1980, by former President Carter in retaliation for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, as being a disproportienately severe sacrifice for farmers. But it was not MALCOLM BALDRIGE lifted until Friday, partly because U.S. sent Soviets "tough signals" Haig had persuaded the president that it would be inappropriate to lift and even his economic program could the embargo while the possibility ex- be in jeopardy on this issue. isted of Soviet intervention in Poland But Baldrige dismissed the idea and that prema are lifting of the em- that domestic politics, in an effort to bargo would be inconsistent with the win support for the administration's administration's efforts to put across a economic recovery plan or its pending hard line to Moscow. farm bill, played the major part in the decision. "Political reasons in this That line has been put down, Bal- drige indicated yesterday. Asked how town have to be considered, along with everything else, but that was far he thought the Soviet Politburo would away from the major reason, he said. read the decision-on the embargo, he Baldrige said Reagan decided to said, "I would not take that as a sig- end the embargo because "it was not nal of weakness in any way, shape or his embargo in the first place It form. I would take it as a sense of was Jimmy Carter's embargo. security that this president feels Baldrige said the president never strong enough to be able to do that said he would lift the embargo if he and withstand a minor amount of received some concession from the criticism." Soviets, nor did the administration Haig reportedly still thinks lifting receive any private assurances from the embargo is a mistake, and he told the Soviets regarding the situation in the Associated Press Saturday that Poland. the administration would impose an "He's never stated it would take a across-the-board ban on trade with quid pro quo," Baldrige said. "The the Soviet Union including a new fact is he didn't think it was an ef- grain embargo if the Soviets inter- fective enough tool, a kind of retribu- vene in Poland. tion against a move in Afghanistan "I think the most important thing when it was first imposed. we must prevent in the wake of lifting "The question is to send the right the embargo is the perception that it kind of signal to the Russians 80 was exclusively the consequence of a there's no mistake about our policy perceived Soviet moderation in Po- and our intentions, so they under- land," Haig said. He said it would be stand that," Baldrige said. "Once a mistake to "let Poland exclusively that's done, and it's been done in the dominate our assessment of future last. three months, there's no real rea- relations with the Soviet Union and son to keep that embargo on." return to an attitude of normal if the Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary situation in Poland is not aggravated." Donald T. Regan told reporters yes- Haig acknowledged that tensions in terday that the administration didn't Poland had eased, but he warned the lift a high-technology embargo against crisis is not past. He also said Reagan the Soviets, imposed shortly after the took into account "certain domestic grain embargo, because high- considerations" in his decision to lift technology goods have defense and the embargo, noting "this farm bill political overtones. Re 2323 10 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL April 28, 1981 TO: ALLEN LENZ FROM: GEOFF KEMP I would like to see your draft letter to RVA re attached. Thank you. Aliank on This is the package you gave to Paula to work up for you. I called with Kemp's request. Carol C. To: Doula Dobriansky. NSC/S PROFILE UNCLASSIFIED ID 8102323 RECEIVED 27 APR 81 15 TO ALLEN FROM MOSER, CHARLES DOCDATE 24 APR 81 MCKAY, KAREN 24 APR 81 KEYWORDS: GRAIN EMBARGO AFGHANISTAN USSR SUBJECT: COM FOR FREE AFGHANISTAN PROTESTS LIFTING OF GRAIN EMBARGO ACTION: PREPARE REPLY FOR ALLEN SIG DUE: 04 MAY 81 STATUS S FILES FOR ACTION FOR COMMENT FOR INFO Kemy LENZ KEMP STEARMAN COLSON PIPES GREGG 1 would henz's who Is dall see with for IS COMMENTS REF# LOG NSCIFID (c/) ACTION OFFICER (S) ASSIGNED ACTION REQUIRED DUE COPIES TO DISPATCH W/ATTCH FILE (C) Committee for a Free Afghanistan 2323 A Project of the Council for the Defense of Freedom (Member of the Coalition for Peace through Strength) Executive Director 721 Second Street, N.E. Karen McKay Washington, D.C. 20002 (202) 546-7577 Board of Directors General Daniel O. Graham, USA (Ret.) Marx Lewis April 24, 1981 Dr. Charles Moser HAND DELIVERED Theodora Bond Hon. Richard Allen National Security Adviser The White House Washington, DC Dear Mr. Allen: The Committee for the Free Afghanistan, formed in January 1981 to work for the liberation of Afghanistan from Soviet occupation, is distressed to learn that the Reagan Administration is giving serious consideration to lifting the grain embargo imposed upon the Soviet Union after the invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. As weak as that response was, it remains virtually the only concrete thing the United States has done for the purpose of showing its support for the courageous Afghan freedom fighters who are opposing, almost with bare hands, the might of Soviet arms under the direction of a regime which seems bent upon inflicting upon Afghanistan the same sort of genocidal destruction which has been visited upon the Cambodian people. Events in Afghanistan are among the most horrendous in world history. The United States cannot simply stand idly by while a tragedy of such historic proportions occurs which it is probably within its power to prevent. We, the undersigned members of the Committee for a Free Afghanistan, protest against the raising of the grain embargo so long as Soviet invasion armies con- tinue to occupy Afghanistan and slaughter its people. We understand that as a candidate for the presidency, President Reagan com- mitted himself to the lifting of the embargo, and that he no doubt feels strongly about carrying out his campaign promises if he possibly can. Although we believe it would be a mistake for him to modify the grain embargo, that mistake might not be irreparable if it were coupled -- along the lines of the President's statement to Frank Reynolds on ABC Television -- with a statement that the necessary financial or other aid would be immediately dispatched to the Afghan freedom fighters. We have reason to believe that there is great support for such aid in the Congress. We appeal to the President not to inflict mortal discouragement upon those valiant Afghans who are fighting with so little help for their freedom -- and ours -- by lifging the grain embargo without any accompanying sign of direct support for their struggle. Karen MaKay Karen McKay Charles Charles A. Moser 81 APR 24 P5: 53 JANET COLSON gr BUD NANCE la to staffing 4/27 DICK ALLEN IRENE DERUS JANET COLSON BUD NANCE KAY CY TO VP SHOW CC CY TO MEESE SHOW CC CY TO BAKER SHOW CC CY TO DEAVER SHOW CC CY TO BRADY SHOW CC E0B365 SECRET ******** COPY IN OP IMMED DE RUEHC #0748 1210710 0 2923452 APR 81 ZFF6 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 9462-5 IMMEDIATE INFO ZEN/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 7235/8 ZEN/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 6823-6 ZEN/AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE 1992-5 ZEN/AMEMBASSY BONN IMMEDIATE 5372/5 ZEN/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 1474/7 ZEN/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 2875/8 ZEN/AMEMBASSY JIDDA IMMEDIATE 0827/30 SECRET STATE 110748 NODIS CO RRECTED COPY (LEFT OUT WORD "ON") E.O. 12065: XGDS-L, 3 4/22/01 (HAIG, ALEXANDER), S TAGS: PEPR, MASS, EAID, PARM, PK, US, IN, UR, AF, SA SUBJECT: U.S.-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: FOREIGN MINISTER SHAHI'S DISCUSSIONS WITH THE SECRETARY 1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT. 2. SECRETARY HAIG MET WITH PAKISTAN FOREIGN MINISTER AGHA DECLASSIFIED NLRR F06-114/8#9988 #9988 SHAHI ON APRIL 20 AND 21 FOR APPROXIMATELY TWO AND ONE-HALF HOURS TOTAL IN TWO SEPARATE MEETINGS. UNDER SECRETARY BY her NARA DATE 9/30/08 BUCKLEY ALSO MET SEPARATELY WITH THE FOREIGN MINISTER AND DELEGATION. SHAHI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY CHIEF OF STAFF TO PRESIDENT ZIA, LT. GEN. ARIF, PAKISTAN AMBASSADOR TO FRANCE, YAQUB KHAN, AND FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALS. THE HIGH- LIGHTS OF THE MEETINGS ARE SUMMARIZED TOPICALLY BELOW. TALKING POINTS FOR USE IN BRIEFING HOST GOVERNMENTS WILL BE PROVIDED SEPARATELY. 3. THE SETTING: SECRETARY HAIG IN WELCOMING THE MINISTER SAID THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS GREAT ADMIRATION FOR THE SIT: EOB: ECON, SEA, PRC, ASIMET, NEA, EEUR, WEUR WHSR COMMENTS: PAGE 01 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG :292345Z APR 81 PSN:046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/1003Z CSN:HCE691 SECRET *******E COPY 13 SECRET *******E COPY WAY PAKISTAN HAD WITHSTOOD THE PRESSURES OVER THE PAST 16 MONTHS AFTER THE SOVIET INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION WAS DETER- MINED TO STOP SOVIET EXPANSIONISM. PRESIDENT REAGAN WAS FULLY APPRISED OF PAKISTAN'S CONCERNS AND COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING PAKISTAN. THROUGH PRUDENT DIPLOMACY, WE ARE HOPEFUL THAT WE CAN MEET PAKISTAN'S NEEDS AND COMMON SECURITY PROBLEMS. THE SECRETARY BRIEFED ON HIS RECENT TRIP TO THE MIDDLE EAST NOTING HE HAD MADE CLEAR THAT EVEN IF THE PALESTINIAN PROBLEM WERE TO BE RESOLVED, THERE WOULD STILL BE A MAJOR SOVIET PROBLEM. HE BELIEVED BOTH PROBLEMS MUST BE DEALT WITH IN TANDEM; PROGRESS IN ONE AREA HELPS PROGRESS IN THE OTHER. THE SOVIETS DEMAND SUBSERVIENCE, AND ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH AN EQUAL RELATIONSHIP AS HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES THAT HAVE ESCAPED, OR WANT TO ESCAPE FROM A SOVIET EMBRACE. THE SECRETARY EMPHASIZED THERE IS A NEW CONSENSUS IN THE U.S. WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES AND PUBLIC OPINION. NOW THE UNITED STATES WILL NOT ACCEPT SOVIET AGGRESSION, ESPECIALLY IN THE VITAL SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION. THE UNITED STATES IS NOT, AS SOME THOUGHT, SOLELY CONCERNED OVER MOVEMENT OF OIL SUPPLIES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ; WE ARE CONCERNED OVER SOVIET EXPANSIONISM AND THE SECURITY OF OUR FRIENDS. 4. SHAHI SAID THE WARM AND SINCERE TONE OF VARIOUS COMMUNICATIONS FROM WASHINGTON SUCH AS PRESIDENT REAGAN'S LETTER AND THE MARCH 21 PROPOSALS MADE BY AMBASSADOR HUMMEL WERE A WELCOME CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS IN 1980. PAKISTAN COULD NOT ACCEPT LAST YEAR'S ASSISTANCE OFFER BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ITS DURABILITY AND CREDIBILITY. THE MAGNITUDE OF ASSISTANCE OFFERED AT THAT TIME WOULD HAVE MERELY PROVOKED THE SOVIETS AND INDIA WITHOUT OFFERING SECURITY TO PAKISTAN. THE PRESENT PROPOSALS WERE A MAJOR IMPROVEMENT, NOT ONLY IN THEIR MAGNITUDE, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE INTANGIBLES EMBODIED IN THE ATTITUDES OF PRESIDENT REAGAN, SECRETARY HAIG, AND THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, WHICH ARE ALL FAR MORE CREDIBLE THAN THOSE OF A YEAR AGO. SHAHI SAID PAKISTAN IS IN A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION. SOVIET PRESSURES AND THREATS HAVE BEEN DIRECTED AGAINST PAKISTAN; BUT PAKISTAN HAD NOT SUCCUMBED. HE EXPRESSED GREAT APPRECIATION FOR THE ADMINISTRATION'S OFFER OF ASSISTANCE AND FOR THE STATEMENTS MADE IN CONNECTION WITH THAT OFFER. 5. REGIONAL SECURITY: SHAHI SAID IT WOULD BE PREFER- PAGE 02 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG: 2923452 APR 81 PSN: 046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/1003Z CSN: HCE691 SECRET ******** COPY SECRET COPY ABLE FOR THE U.S. TO CONSTRUCT BILATERAL ARRANGEMENTS WITH GULF STATES RATHER THAN AN OVERALL, MULTILATERAL ARRANGEMENT. WITH REGARD TO RECIPROCAL OBLIGATIONS™ PAKISTAN WAS ALREADY STANDING FIRM AT CONSIDERABLE RISK ON AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN HAD MADE SOME COMPROMISES IN FORMULATING PROPOSALS FOR NEGOTIATIONS, BUT THESE WERE ESSENTIAL TO AVOID TOTALLY ALIENATING THE SOVIETS. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT THE UNITED STATES SEEKS TO ESTABLISH STRONGER BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH FRIENDLY STATES IN SOUTHWEST ASIA. PAKISTAN COULD BE ASSURED THAT THERE IS NO U.S. INTENT TO RE-CONSTITUTE ANY MULTILATERAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS ALONG THE LINES OF CENTO. NOR WAS THERE ANY U.S. INTENT TO SET UP ANY FRAMEWORK WHICH WOULD DETRACT FROM PAKISTAN'S SOVEREIGNTY. THE U.S. HAS NO STRINGS OR HIDDEN DESIRES IN MIND, WHETHER RELATING TO THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS OR ANY OTHER AREA. THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT SEEK ANY BASES OR FACILITIES IN PAKISTAN. WE BELIEVE THAT A STRONGER PAKISTAN IN ITSELF, IS IN U.S. INTERESTS. THE U.S. SEEKS A DURABLE RELATION- SHIP WITH PAKISTAN ON A BILATERAL BASIS. 6. INDIA: SHAHI SAID WE CAN AGREE THAT THE U.S.- PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP IS NOT DIRECTED AGAINST INDIA AND ITS SOLE OBJECTIVE IS TO NEUTRALIZE THREATS AGAINST PAKISTAN. PAKISTAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDUCE TENSIONS WITH INDIA. HE RECALLED THAT PAKISTAN HAD ALREADY ASSURED INDIA THAT PAKISTAN IS NOT A THREAT AND HAD EVEN OFFERED TO DISCUSS WITH INDIA A MUTUALLY AGREED RATIO OF ARMS IN WHICH PAKISTAN WOULD NOT ASK FOR ANY- THING APPROACHING PARITY; INDIA HAD REJECTED THIS. NOW INDIA IS TRYING TO STOP U.S. MILITARY SALES. PAKISTAN IS CONCERNED IF IT ENTERS INTO A RELATIONSHIP WHICH COULD BE DESCRIBED AS A MILITARY AID RELATIONSHIP, EVEN INDIAN OPPOSITION LEADERS SUCH AS DESAI WHO HAD BEEN HELPFUL IN THE PAST, WOULD JOIN WITH MRS. GANDHI IN CRITICIZING PAKISTAN. SHAHI WAS CONCERNED THAT A DECLARATION BY THE U.S. CONGRESS THAT U.S. MILITARY CREDITS ARE IN THE U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST" WOULD PRECIPITATE AN INDIAN BACKLASH. SECRETARY HAIG SAID THAT THE UNITED STATES HAD EARLIER, THROUGH AMBASSADOR HUMMEL, MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD NOT GIVE INDIA A VETO OVER U.S. POLICIES TOWARDS PAKISTAN OR OVER SPECIFIC MILITARY HARDWARE WHICH PAKISTAN MIGHT WISH. IN HIS RECENT DISCUSSIONS WITH INDIAN MEA SECRETARY GONSALVES, HE HAD LEFT THE INDIANS IN NO DOUBT ABOUT U.S. INTENTIONS TOWARDS PAKISTAN. WE HAVE MADE IT EQUALLY CLEAR THAT WHAT WE SELL PAKISTAN IS NOT DIRECTED AGAINST INDIA BUT WAS AN ASPECT OF THE U.S.-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP. PAGE 03 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG :2923452 APR 81 PSN 046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/1003Z CSN:HCE691 SECRET *******E COPY SECRET COPY 7. SECURITY ASSURANCES: SHAHI SAID THAT PRESIDENT ZIA BELIEVED THAT SOLID SECURITY WOULD REQUIRE A NEW U.S.- PAKISTAN TREATY. WERE THIS IMPOSSIBLE, ZIA WANTED THE U.S. TO CONSIDER A FRIENDSHIP AGREEMENT ALONG THE LINES OF THE INDO-SOVIET TREATY. FINALLY, SHOULD A FRIENDSHIP AGREEMENT NOT BE FEASIBLE, PAKISTAN was PREPARED TO STICK TO THE 1959 BILATERAL AGREEMENT WHICH PAKISTAN WOULD NOT WISH TO HAVE REAFFIRMED BY CONGRESS. UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, PAKISTAN IS SATISFIED WITH THE 1959 ASSUR- ANCES. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WISH TO SPARK ANY DEBATES IN CONGRESS. THE AGREEMENTS AND STATEMENTS OF THE REAGAN ADMINSTRA- TION CARRY GREAT WEIGHT WITH PAKISTAN AND THEREFORE IT IS BEST TO LEAVE THE 1959 AGREEMENT AS IS, RATHER THAN TO CREATE CONTROVERSY. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT AGREEMENTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT AS RELATIONS BASED ON MUTUAL RESPECT AND CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST DETERRENCE TO THE SOVIETS WOULD BE A SOLID RELATION- SHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND PAKISTAN. 8. ASSISTANCE: SHAHI HAD A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS ABOUT OUR PROPOSED. PACKAGE AND SUGGESTED A. NUMBER OF ALTERNATIVE "MIXES". HE SAID PAKISTAN IS NOT CLEAR ABOUT USG PROCEDURES, BUT IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT OF A SECURITY ASSISTANCE PROGRAM ON PAKISTAN'S NON- ALIGNMENT. IF THE USG MUST CERTIFY TO THE CONGRESS THAT A MILITARY AID PROGRAM SERVES U.S. POLICY INTERESTS", THEN INDIA AND OTHERS WOULD USE THIS AS A PRETEXT TO DEFAME PAKISTAN AND UNDERMINE ITS NON- ALIGNED STATUS. THE MINISTER BELIEVED THAT MILITARY CREDITS WOULD COME UNDER A SECURITY ASSISTANCE ACT WHICH WOULD CALL PAKISTAN'S NON-ALIGNMENT INTO QUES- TION. HE WENT ON TO SAY THAT PAKISTAN WOULD LIKE THE FIVE-YEAR PACKAGE EXTENDED TO EIGHT YEARS. GENERAL ARIF SAID THAT PAKISTAN ALSO WOULD LIKE US TO CON- SIDER A TWO YEAR APPROPRIATION AS HAD BEEN PROPOSED BY THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION. 9. THE SECRETARY URGED THE MINISTER NOT TO LET MECHANICAL PROBLEMS BECOME ROADBLOCKS. OUR PROCEDURES SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO OVERSHADOW THE MAIN ISSUES. UNDER SECRETARY BUCKLEY CLARIFIED THAT THE SAME RULES APPLY TO THE VARIOUS TYPES OF ASSISTANCE OFFERED, ALL FALL UNDER THE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ACT, WHETHER DIRECT CREDITS OR FMS GUARANTEED LOANS: NAMELY THAT THE ASSISTANCE PROVIDED WOULD ENHANCE U.S. SECURITY PAGE 04 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG: 2923452 APR 81 PSN: 046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/10032 CSN HCE691 SECRET ******** COPY SECRET ******** COPY INTERESTS. HE INDICATED THAT WE HAVE FMS CREDIT ARRANGEMENTS WITH A VARIETY OF ISLAMIC AND NON-ALIGNED COUNTRIES SUCH AS MOROCCO, TUNISIA, NORTH YEMEN, JORDAN SUDAN, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA AND OTHERS. THESE ARRANGE- MENTS HAVE NOT ADVERSELY AFFECTED THEIR NON-ALIGNED STATUS. SHAHI LATER ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PAKISTAN'S APPREHENSIONS REGARDING USE OF FMS CREDITS HAD BEEN MISTAKEN. UNDER SECRETARY BUCKLEY SAID THAT AN EIGHT YEAR PACKAGE AND A TWO YEAR COMMITMENT WOULD RAISE QUESTIONS IN CONGRESS SINCE THESE WOULD CONSTITUTE VARIANTS FROM THE CUSTOMARY ASSISTANCE REQUESTS. THEY WOULD THEREFORE BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SELL. IN TESTIFYING BEFORE CONGRESS, WE WOULD JUSTIFY ANY AID REQUEST FOR PAKISTAN ON THE BASIS OF THE SOVIET THREAT THROUGH AFGHANISTAN. 10. IT WAS AGREED THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD DO EVERY- THING POLITICALLY POSSIBLE TO TRY TO SHAPE AN ASSISTANCE PACKAGE WHICH MEETS PAKISTAN'S OBJECTIVES. A U.S. DELEGATION WOULD VISIT PAKISTAN TO DISCUSS FURTHER THE OUT-YEAR ASSISTANCE QUESTION. SHAHI SAID THAT HE HAD BEEN AUTHORIZED BY PRESIDENT ZIA TO ACCEPT OUR OFFER OF $100 MILLION IN ESF FOR FY 82, BUT PAKISTAN PREFERRED THAT THIS DECISION REMAIN CONFIDENTIAL FOR THE TIME BEING. UNDER SECRETARY BUCKLEY POINTED OUT THAT ALL ASSISTANCE REMAINED CONTINGENT ON THE ADMINISTRATION'S ABILITY TO GAIN CONGRESSIONAL ASSENT TO THE PROPOSED CHANGE IN THE WAIVER PROVISION OF THE SYMINGTON AMENDMENT. 11. AIRCRAFT: SHAHI SAID PAKISTAN WAS ABOUT TO ENTER A DANGEROUS PERIOD AFTER THE START OF A NEW RELATION- SHIP WITH THE U.S. AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF EFFECTIVE WEAPONRY. PAKISTAN BELIEVED THAT ITS FIRST PRIORITY MILITARY PURCHASE SHOULD BE TWO SQUADRONS OF F-16S. PAKISTAN ADDITIONALLY WANTS SPEEDED UP DELIVERY AND QUICK CONVERSION COURSES FOR ITS PILOTS. TO BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN NOW AND THE ACTUAL DELIVERY DATE, PAKISTAN REQUESTS THAT THE U.S. PROVIDE ON HOT LEASE TWO SQUADRONS OF F-16S. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT A LEASE ARRANGEMENT WOULD PRESENT REAL PROBLEMS SINCE A LEASE COULD ONLY BE MADE BY DIVERTING THE AIRCRAFT FROM U.S. INVENTORIES. SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT WOULD ALSO HAVE TO BE PRESENTED TO OUR CONGRESS. HE SAID THAT HE WOULD HAVE TO DISCUSS THIS MATTER WITH THE PRESIDENT AND WITH SECRETARY WEINBERGER TO SEE WHAT PAGE 05 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG:292345Z APR 81 PSN .046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/10032 CSN:HCE691 SECRET ******** COPY 10g SECRET ******** COPY MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. WE WOULD HAVE TO GET BACK LATER TO PAKISTAN ON THIS. 12. MILITARY SALES: UNDER SECRETARY BUCKLEY SAID THAT WE WOULD BE PREPARED TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO PAKISTANI REQUESTS FOR ARMS PURCHASES. WE HAVE RECEIVED MANY UNCOORDINATED PRICE AND AVAILABILITY REQUESTS OVER THE PAST YEAR FROM THE PAKISTAN SERVICES. WE WOULD HOPE THAT IN THE FUTURE PAKISTAN COULD PRESENT US WITH ALL-SERVICE COORDINATED LISTS WHICH ALSO REFLECT PAKISTAN'S BUDGET RESOURCES. 13. IMET: SHAHI SAID THAT PAKISTAN UNDERSTOOD WHY ONLY $600 THOUSAND FOR IMET IN FY 82 HAD BEEN PROGRAMMED. HE REQUESTED, HOWEVER, THAT THIS FIGURE BE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED IN OUT-YEARS. IT WAS AGREED THAT THE U.S. WOULD MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO INCREASE IMET DURING OUT-YEARS. 14. CONTINGENCY PLANNING: SECRETARY HAIG SAID WE SHOULD START JOINT CONTINGENCY PLANNING ON INTERMEDIATE LEVEL SOVIET THREATS. WE COULD FOCUS ON DANGEROUS THREATS OF AN AMBIGUOUS NATURE SUCH AS A JOINT SOVIET- AFGHANISTAN INCURSION. THE U.S. WOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND A DELEGATION HEADED BY COUNSELOR MCFARLANE. WE UNDER- STOOD THE AGREEMENTS REACHED BY THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION, I.E., THAT PAKISTAN WOULD HANDLE LOW-LEVEL BORDER INCURSIONS WHILE, OF COURSE, OUR 1959 AGREEMENT WOULD COME INTO PLAY IN THE EVENT OF A MASSIVE SOVIET INCURSION. WE WOULD PROPOSE DISCUSSIONS ON THE MIDDLE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOVIET ACTIONS. GENERAL ARIF RECALLED THE 1980 CONTINGENCY DISCUSSIONS. SHAHI AND GENERAL ARIF INDICATED THAT A U.S. DELEGATION WOULD BE WELCOMED IN ABOUT MID-MAY TO DISCUSS THIS AND OTHER MATTERS. 15. SAUDI ASSISTANCE: THE SECRETARY SAID THAT HE HAD DISCUSSED PAKISTAN DURING HIS RECENT VISIT TO RIYADH AND FOUND THE SAUDIS WANT TO HELP. IT IS CLEARLY IN THE U.S. INTEREST THAT PAKISTAN SHOULD RETAIN VERY CLOSE RELATIONS WITH THE SAUDIS AND OTHER FRIENDS. WE HOPE TO WORK TOGETHER TO OPTIMIZE ASSISTANCE FROM THE SAUDIS AND OTHERS. (IN A SIDE CONVERSATION, AMBASSADOR YAQUB TOLD ASST. SECRETARY DESIGNATE VELIOTES THAT SA'DI FOREIGN MINISTER SAUD HAD URGED PAKISTAN LAST WEEK TO ACCEPT THE PAGE 06 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG:292345Z APR 81 PSN :046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/1003Z CSN:HCE691 SECRET ******** COPY 20 SECRET COPY U.S. AID OFFER WHICH YAQUB SAID REPRESENTED A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY FOR PAKISTAN TO SEIZE A STRATEGIC OPTION). 16. AFGHANISTAN: THE SECRETARY INDICATED THAT WE WERE WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN VERY CLOSELY AND CONTINUED TO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST APPROACH WAS TO KEEP UP PUBLIC PRESSURE ON THE SOVIETS. WE WANT TO SUPPORT PAKISTAN WITHOUT ADDING TO PAKISTAN'S RISKS. THE SECRETARY ASKED WHETHER SHAHI SAW THE GISCARD PROPOSAL FOR AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AS USEFUL AT SOME LATER STAGE. SHAHI REVIEWED THE DE CUELLER MISSIONAND SAID THAT HE DIDNOT BELIEVE IT WOULD ACHIEVE MUCH. PAKISTAN LAUNCHED ITS INITIATIVE INVOLVING THE SECRETARY GENERAL'S REPRESENTATIVE LAST DECEMBER BECAUSE IT PERCEIVED A WEAKENING OF INTERNATIONAL INTEREST IN THE AFGHAN PROBLEM. HE RECALLED THAT THERE WAS APPREHENSION ABOUT DE CUELLAR'S EVEN TALKING WITH THE BABRAK REGIME. SHAHI SAID THAT SHOULD THE DE CUELLAR MISSION PRODUCE SOME MOVEMENT, PAKISTAN WOULD INSIST THAT HE TALK WITH AFGHAN NATIONALISTS. FOR THIS REASON, PAKISTAN WAS SEEKING TO FORM A UNITED FRONT OF NATIONALIST LEADERS WHO, AT PRESENT, WERE so DIVIDED THERE WAS NO ONE DE CUELLAR MIGHT CONTACT. IN THE LONGER TERM, PAKISTAN WAS HOPEFUL THAT IN A U.S.-SOVIET SUMMIT THE UNITED STATES AND THE USSR COULD AGREE TO SOME SOVIET FACE SAVING FORMULA WHICH WOULD PERMIT SOVIET WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN. IF A NEUTRAL AFG'AN LEADER COULD BE FOUND ACCEPTABLE TO THE USSR PERHAPS THE SOVIETS WOULD BE WILLING TO REPLACE THE BABRAK REGIME. IN THE MEANTIME, PAKISTAN HAD NO OPTION BUT TO CONTINUE WITH DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS. HE RECALLED THAT PAKISTAN TOO HAD BEEN TAKEN BY SURPRISE BY THE GISCARD PROPOSAL WHICH PAKISTAN HAD EARLIER RAISED AS ONE POSSIBLE APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM. PAKISTAN DID NOT BELIEVE THAT THE SOVIETS WOULD BE WILLING TO ACCEPT AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE. IF THEY DID, PAKISTAN WOULD BE PREPARED TO GIVE THE GISCARD INITIATIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT WE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE CONTACT REGARDING AFGHANISTAN. 17. NUCLEAR ISSUE: THE SECRETARY INDICATED THAT HE DID NOT WANT TO MAKE PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM THE CENTER- PIECE OF THE U.S.-PAKISTAN DIALOGUE, BUT THE PAKISTANIS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT THIS ISSUE COULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE U.S. TO SUPPORT PAKISTAN. WE WOULD NOT BE MAKING PUBLIC STATEMENTS, NOR WOULD WE HARANGUE THE PAKISTANIS PUBLICLY, BUT IT WAS A VERY REAL ISSUE. UNDER SECRETARY BUCKLEY IN DISCUSSING ASSISTANCE AND OUR PROPOSED CHANGE PAGE 07 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG: 2923452 APR 81 PSN 046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/10032 CSN:HCE691 SECRET *******E COPY SECRET ******** COPY IN THE WAIVER LANGUAGE OF THE SYMINGTON AMENDMENT SAID THAT THE LATTER DID NOT MEAN THAT WE HAVE ABANDONED OUR NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION POLICY. HE REITERATED THAT A CHANGE IN THE SYMINGTON AIVER WAS ESSENTIAL FOR US TO PROCEED WITH AN ASSISTANCE RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN. HE POINTED OUT THAT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL WOULD NOT COME EASILY. 18. FUTURE STEPS: SHAHI EXTENDED ON BEHALF OF PRESIDENT ZIA AN INVITATION TO THE SECRETARY TO VISIT PAKISTAN. THE SECRETARY INDICATED THAT HE WOULD LIKE VERY MUCH TO MAKE SUCH A VISIT WHEN HIS SCHEDULE PERMITTED. THERE WAS INCONCLUSIVE DISCUSSION ABOUT FUTURE TALKS IN ISLAMABAD BY VISITING AMERICAN DELE- GATIONS TO DISCUSS THE NATURE AND SHAPE OF OUT-YEAR ASSISTANCE AND PERHAPS A POSSIBLE PAKISTANI MILITARY TEAM COMING HERE TO DISCUSS PROCUREMENT MATTERS. HAIG HAIG BT PAGE 08 OF 08 SECSTATE WASHDC 0748 DTG :2923457 APR 81 PSN: 046440 RECALLED TOR: 121/10032 CSN : HCE691 SECRET ******** E COPY THE NEW YORK TIMES, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29, 1981 Pg. A6 Soviet Union after the lifting of the United SuzukiSays U.S. Did Not Consult on Ending Grain Ban States' grain embargo, to which he re- turned at the end of the hourlong meeting The Japanese Government has held By HENRY SCOTT STOKES that "there was no move to coordinate democracies." firm in its refusal to do business with the Special to The New York Times with whatever action Japan may take on Mr. Suzuki referred briefly to the auto Soviet Union. One result of this firmness, our economic sanctions against the Soviet issue, implying that Tokyo news reports Foreign Ministry officials said, was the TOKYO, April 28 - Prime Minister Union." that Japan will announce a program for loss last year of a $350 million order for a Zenko Suzuki, who will visit Washington "Therefore, I am bewildered,' said the voluntary restraint of auto shipments to steel plant for the Soviet Union. next week, criticized the United States today for not having consulted with 70-year-old Prime Minister. "Frankly, I the United States on Saturday are likely The plant was to be jointly supplied by am bewildered." to be correct. the Armco Steel Corporation of the Japan before ending the 15-month curb on Asked about Japanese plans for de- United States and Nippon Steel. But after grain shipments to the Soviet Union. Strategy for Meeting Weakened fense cooperation with the United States, Japan and the United States halted "We were informed about this lifting Mr. Suzuki's remarks on the lifting of for which American officials have high credits for the project, the Creusot Loire before the action was taken," said Mr. the grain embargo appeared to reflect hopes, the Prime Minister gaye no hint of Group of France went ahead, using state Suzuki at a news conference with report- ers for American news organizations, embarrassment that his overall design any major rearmament and denied that credits from Paris, to win the deal. for his meeting with President Reagan Japan would play a defense role in the In- "I cannot help but point out that public "but we were not consulted sufficiently in has been seriously weakened. He has dian Ocean. opinion has come to the viewpoint after advance or asked our views on the timing of the move." hoped to get away from contentious bilat- "We cannot be expected by other na- the U.S. action that we should re-examine eral issues, notably the dispute over tions to make military contributions for sanctions against the Soviet Union," Mr. The Prime Minister also said that Japanese automobile exports to the the peace and stability of the world," he Suzuki said. But Foreign Ministry offi- Japan was not given "any explanation as United States, and to stress lofty goals declared. cials denied that there would be any swift to the reason for the action" and he added such as the "solidarity of industrial His main topic was relations with the change of policy. 4/29/81m Page A1 Japan Wash Post Bluntly Critical of Reagan's Lifting of Soviet Grain Embargo By William Chapman Reagan in Washington. It added an- Japan would now "reexamine our own we took this into account both in the consulting Japan. However, the Washington Post Foreign Service other complication to relations already economic sanctions" because of the timing and substance of our prior no- Japanese leaders at the time did not TOKYO - Prime Minister Zenko burdened by disputes over automobile U.S. move. tification to them." He declined to resort to a news conference to make Suzuki, in a public move highly un- exports and defense spending. "Frankly speaking, [ was somewhat elaborate further.] known their views. characteristic for a Japanese leader, Suzuki said the Reagan administra- perplexed about the timing of this The Japanese have frequently Suzuki, speaking through an inter today accused the Reagan adminis- tion had not sought Japan's views lifting," Suzuki told foreign reporters voiced their annoyance about the lack preter to about 20 reporters gathered tration of failing to consult Japan be- before the embargo was lifted and in a news conference this afternoon. of consultation, but such views were in his official residence, also indicated fore it lifted the grain embargo against that there had been no consideration [In Washington, State Department normally. expressed indirectly in the he would draw a sharp line when he the Soviet Union. as to what Japan might do about its spokesman Jack Cannon said, "We press. Relations between the United meets Reagan on what Japan can or The Japanese leader's blunt criti- own sanctions against Moscow. gave the Japanese prior notification of States and Japan were strained in the cannot do to increase its defense cism was particularly sharp coming as He questioned the embargo lifting our decision. We were aware that the early 1970s by the so-called "Nixon forces. it did only days before he is to meet in view of continued "uncertainties" Japanese would want to be as fully shocks," especially Washington's move He said specifically that Japan for the first time with President about Poland But he hinted that informed as possible on this issue and to open relations with China without See SUZUKI, A18, Col. 3 23 SUZUKI, From A1 that he was aware of Reagan's pres- no details. But he said that "by the "we will not conceive of any such no- would not act to "fill the void" left by idential campaign statements prom- time of my visit to Washington you tion as filling the void created by the the movement of some elements of ising to lift the embargo. will have seen the happy end" to the 7th Fleet moving to the Persian Gulf the 7th Fleet to the Persian Gulf re- "But we were not consulted suffi- problem. There was speculation here or Indian Ocean, even if requested gion or the Indian Ocean. ciently in advance or asked for our that the government would formally We will defend our own land and So far as is known, the United view as regards the timing of such a announce details about "voluntary" territorial sea without depending ex States has not made such a request, lifting or [given] any explanation as tc restraint by Japanese car makers later cessively upon the United States and although it has consistently suggested the reasons for such an action. this week. any move into the Indian Ocean for that Japan do more to assure the "There was no move to coordinate On defense matters, the prime min- the protection of sea lanes — in other safety of waters near its shores with whatever action Japan may take ister said he would tell Reagan in words, any such moves beyond our through stepped-up antisubmarine in regard to our economic sanctions exact terms what Japan can and can- immediate territorial land and periph- and air-defense systems. vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. All these not do under the restrictions of its eral waters would not be permissible The U.S. ambassador to Japan, had not been touched on. Therefore, constitution, which is interpreted here under our constitution." Mike Mansfield, recently called on frankly speaking, I was somewhat per to bar any military activities except Suzuki said he was aware of the Japan to assume more responsibility plexed about the timing of the lifting. those in defense of the Japanese general idea of a joint force of anti- for sea defense in the light of move- Questioned about the dispute with mainland and adjacent waters. Soviet forces in the Indian Ocean, but ments into the Indian Ocean by parts the United States over Japanese car Japan will continue to improve its added that he has received no specific of the 7th Fleet. But he was not spe exports, the prime minister provided defense capability, Suzuki said, but, suggestions that Japan join in it. cific and the exact area the United States wants Japan to defend has been left vague. His comments reflect a lingering unhappiness with what Japan consid- ers unfair application of sanctions against the Soviet Union for its inva- sion of Afghanistan. At the U.S. urg ing early last year, Japan grudgingly agreed to certain economic sanctions including holding up loans and credits for several projects of considerable value to both Japan and the Soviet Union. But for months, Japanese business- men have complained that some Eu- ropean nations principally France and West Germany - were abrogat- ing an understanding on sanctions to get Soviet business for their own com- panies. The Japanese government also has expressed displeasure on occasion but has not made it a major public issue. "Japan has rather sincerely, serious- ly, and steadfastly cooperated with the United States in carrying out econom- ic sanctions against the Soviet Union, he said. Japanese officials said later there has as yet been no change in the pol- icy of reviewing each Soviet request for development loans and credits on a case by case basis. Suzuki said his government was informed in advance of Reagan's an- nouncement. He also acknowledged GKHIN (Link w/ PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAW) OF THE PRESIDENT ENT OF STRUTIVE PATION UNITED TOFFICE THE OFFICE OF OFTHE The White House and Executive Office of the President Information Center June "www IIIIIII KHIII IIIIIII 118100 wash. Post N.Y. Times (4 one Business Week art.) 2332 file grain 26 MEMORANDUM NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL Pipes: April 30, 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD V. ALLEN FROM: ALLEN J. LENZ att SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo Richard Pipes and I have reviewed the attached talking points (Tab A), provided by both White House Communications and Richard Darman's office, which deal with lifting the grain embargo. At Tab I are two memoranda for your signature. The first is to Frank A. Ursomarso, Director, White House Communications; the second to Richard G. Darman. Both memoranda approve dis- tribution of the talking points to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memoranda at Tab I approving distribution of subject talking points. Approve Disapprove CC: Richard Pipes 27 MEMORANDUM 2332 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD G. DARMAN FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. 28 2332 MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR FRANK A. URSOMARSO FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. you Document No. 29 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON STAFFING MEMORANDUM NOON DATE: 4/29/81 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 4/30/81 SUBJECT: GRAIN EMBARGO ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT JAMES MEESE MURPHY BAKER NOFZIGER DEAVER WEIDENBAUM STOCKMAN CANZERI ALLEN FULLER (For Cabinet) ANDERSON HICKEY BRADY HODSOLL DOLE MC COY FIELDING WILLIAMSON FRIEDERSDORF URSOMARSO GARRICK GERGEN HARPER Remarks: The attached draft talking points have been prepared by the Communications Office. Would you please review for accuracy/prudence -- and edit/approve accordingly. Thank you. Response needed by Thursday, noon. Richard G. Darman Deputy Assistant to the President and Staff Secretary (x-2702) 30 Talking Points On The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills a commitment of his campaign: -- The President has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration The embargo had proved ineffective: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. -- American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: 31 -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place; export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on U.S. position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both U.S. and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1 -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision. -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- Planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop in 1982. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- Farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade The lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S.-Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response of Soviets should act against Poland 32 24 APR 1981 April 24, 1981 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TO: DICK ALLEN FROM: FRANK A. URSOMARSO RSOPON Director of Communications Information X Action If you approve, we will put the enclosed in distribution. 33 Talking Points on The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills his campaign commitment to do so: -- Has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors -- On taking office, determined immediate lifting risked being misread by Soviets and others President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration Assessments of the impact of the embargo have been mixed: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries 34 -2- The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place and export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on US position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both US and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered in: 6 million ton minimum sales requirement Provision voiding minimum requirement if domestic crop below 225 million tons -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1. -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- in 1982, planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade Promised by the President, the lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S. -Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there 35. -3- - -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response if Soviets should act against Poland Pipes 36 2332 MEMORANDUM file grain NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL April 30, 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD V. ALLEN FROM: ALLEN J. LENZ off SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo Richard Pipes and I have reviewed the attached talking points (Tab A), provided by both White House Communications and Richard Darman's office, which deal with lifting the grain embargo. At Tab I are two memoranda for your signature. The first is to Frank A. Ursomarso, Director, White House Communications; the second to Richard G. Darman. Both memoranda approve dis- tribution of the talking points to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memoranda at Tab I approving distribution of subject talking points. Approve Disapprove CC: Richard Pipes 37 MEMORANDUM 2332 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD G. DARMAN FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. 38 MEMORANDUM 2332 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR FRANK A. URSOMARSO FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. der Document No. 39 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON STAFFING MEMORANDUM NOON DATE: 4/29/81 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 4/30/81 SUBJECT: GRAIN EMBARGO ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT JAMES MEESE MURPHY BAKER NOFZIGER DEAVER WEIDENBAUM STOCKMAN CANZERI ALLEN FULLER (For Cabinet) ANDERSON HICKEY BRADY HODSOLL DOLE MC COY FIELDING WILLIAMSON URSOMARSO FRIEDERSDORF GARRICK GERGEN HARPER Remarks: The attached draft talking points have been prepared by the Communications Office. Would you please review for accuracy/prudence -- and edit/approve accordingly. Thank you. Response needed by Thursday, noon. Richard G. Darman Deputy Assistant to the President and Staff Secretary (x-2702) 40 Talking Points On The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills a commitment of his campaign: -- The President has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration The embargo had proved ineffective: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. -- American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: 41 -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place; export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on U.S. position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both U.S. and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1 -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision. -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- Planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop in 1982. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- Farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade The lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S.-Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response of Soviets should act against Poland 24 APR 1981 April 24, 1981 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TO: DICK ALLEN FROM: Director FRANK of A. Communications URSOMARSO Pen Information X Action If you approve, we will put the enclosed in distribution. 43 Talking Points on The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills his campaign commitment to do so: -- Has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors -- On taking office, determined immediate lifting risked being misread by Soviets and others President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration Assessments of the impact of the embargo have been mixed: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. -- American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries 44 -2- The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place and export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on US position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both US and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered in: 6 million ton minimum sales requirement Provision voiding minimum requirement if domestic crop below 225 million tons -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1. -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- in 1982, planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade Promised by the President, the lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S. -Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there as -3- - -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response if Soviets should act against Poland FROM: DOBRIANSKY # 2323 STEARMAN 46 COMMENTS > DRAFT LETTER: SUBJECT TO REVISION AND COMPRESSION Dear Ms. McKay: Thank you for your letter of April 24 expressing your concern about this Administration's plans to uplift the grain embargo. As you know, the President's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills a commitment of his campaign. It has been his concern that the embargo was imposing an unfair burden on the U.S. farmer and that it has not been effective. Thus, by lifting the embargo, the President is fulfilling his pledge to the American until now people. Until now, the President delayed action, ^ to allow for Administration review of the embargo policy and because he believed presently the embargo could be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation by the Soviet Union. You should not perceive the lifting of the embargo as a weakening of our position towards the Soviet Union. That is, this decision does not reflect a change in U.S. opposition to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, diminished U.S. resolve to seek a political solution or an acceptance of the status quo there. Rather, it is the intent of this Administration to persevere in those efforts which will achieve a political settlement founded upon the withdrawal of Soviet troops. First, the President's decision encompasses only the lifting of the partial embargo on agricultural products and the related embargo on phosphates. However, other Afghan-related sanction measures remain in place. For example, the embargo on sales of high technology 47 industrial items will be enforced and export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. Second, President Reagan has not excluded possible U.S. military assistance to the rebels, which is currently under this Administration's review. However, differences remain between the Pakistanis and us regarding the aid to the Afghan resistance. The Pakistanis have maintained that such involvement on their part would foster reprisals from the Soviet Union. Thus, we are in the midst of concluding a 5-year program of American aid to Pakistan to strengthen it as a bulwark against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Approximately, $500 million per-year of economic assistance and arms sales credits will be extended each year. In sum, the lifting of the grain embargo should clearly not be taken as any indication of the Administration's neglect toward the Afghan freedom fighters. 48 Thank you very much for your letter of march April 24 (1) Thank you for your letter of April 24 expressing your concern about this Administration's plans to pight yolift the grain embango. (2) As you know the President's decision to end the Souiet grain embargo fulfills a commitment of his campaign. It has been his concern that the embargo was imposing an unfair burden on the U.S. farmer & that it has not been effective. Thus, by cifting the embango, the Pres. is Fulfilling his pledge to the American people, for Administr. The Pres. delayed action until now to allow reviewal of the embargo policy of because he believed that the embargo mis could be lifted w/out any risk of interpretation. That is, he believed an immediate termin. of the embargo would be misintenpreted by the USSR, The decision to lift the grain embargo however, does not (does not indicate any change in the opposit diminish US resolve) GRAiN EMBARGE DECLASSIFIED IN PART SECRET NLRR F06-114/8*9987 BY RW NARA DATE 3/16/11 Follo) Addendum Reaction to Lifting the Grain Embargo '''' Elimination of the US grain embargo has provoked more response from US allies than from the USSR. The next step for Moscow is to figure out how best to capitalize on the US ennouncement. Allied Response: Although some Western governments have questioned the timing of the US decision, they have all acted quickly to protect their commercial interests. The EC has eliminated restrictions on sales to the USSR and will resume subsidles. who were taking advantage of the US embargo to pry better terms out of Moscow for grain, have dropped that tactic and reportedly rushed to sign 8 5-year agreement last week. with no grain of its own to sell now, has stayed out of the picture. The lifting of the grain embargo is beginning to affect other aspects of the post-Afghanístan sanctions. already 1s erguing that US lifting of the grain embargo gives a freer hand in selling high-technology products to the USSR. The credit restrictions imposed after Afghanistan are also at risk, but nothing has yet happened on this front. West European decisions on whether or not to extend credits depend more on the terms Moscow demands than on what Washington does. Soviet Response: Initial Soviet reaction to the lifting of the US grain embargo has been low key. As it has since the embargo was first imposed in January 1980, Soviet media are portraying the sanctions as ineffective. Moscow has cited the costs suffered by US farmers as being instrumental in the President's decision. The USSR has also asserted that the embargo has hurt prospects for US foreign trade by showing the United States to be an unreliable trading partner. The Soviet leadership probably does not view the grain decision as a weakening of the US Administration's stance toward the USSR. Rather they view It as 8 response to domestic political pressures and AS a resolve to carry through on the campaign pledge. In this regard, Moscow may now believe other campaign pledges--ineluding a tough stance by the US other Issues such as SALT negotiations and an increase In US military expenditures--are a distinct possiblitv. Nor does Moscow probably exaggerate its Influence on US decisions. The leadership realizes that Soviet Iobbying and protestations of nondamage to the Sovlet economy have little or no Influence on political constituencies In the United States. Nevertheless, it probably believes that whatever efforts the USSR -1- SECRET Sr SECRET can muster--private high-level letters, access to US media, contacts in Washington, and official Sovlet statements--are worthwhile. The Soviets regard the US Administration as pro- business And will continue their efforts to enlist US firms to Lobby for an easing of the technology sanctions. The Grain Question: Whether the end of the embargo will soon result in additional sales of US grain to the Soviet Union is TAP from certain. Although Moscow could increase handling capacitv slightlv bv taking more US grain, it would have to defer deliveries of grain already purchased elsewhere. Argentina would be the likely candidate. Long Term Issues: In considering a long-term grain agreement, Moscow believes its negotiating position is stronger now than it was when the first such agreement was concluded in 1975. Their thinking is influenced by the fact that they are completing a year of record grain imports even though purchases from the US were constrained. In negotiating a new LTA, the USSR would no doubt demand B US guarantee of grain deliveries. Rut Moscow does not have all the high cards. the United States would he needed as R safetv value even if it is regarded AS A residual supplier. -?- SECRET - GRAIN EMBARGO MEMORANDUM 2332 53 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON SPAPS May 4, 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD G. DARMAN FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN 100 SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. associment 5/4 is Ursomars 700 54 2332 (win main) MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON May 4, 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR FRANK A. URSOMARSO FROM: RICHARD V. ALLEN for SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo The NSC Staff has reviewed the attached talking points and has approved distribution to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. 2302 55 Document No. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON STAFFING MEMORANDUM NOON DATE: 4/29/81 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 4/30/81 SUBJECT: GRAIN EMBARGO ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT JAMES MEESE MURPHY BAKER NOFZIGER DEAVER WEIDENBAUM STOCKMAN CANZERI ALLEN FULLER (For Cabinet) ANDERSON HICKEY BRADY HODSOLL DOLE MC COY FIELDING WILLIAMSON URSOMARSO FRIEDERSDORF GARRICK GERGEN HARPER Remarks: The attached draft talking points have been prepared by the Communications Office. Would you please review for accuracy/prudence -- and edit/approve accordingly. Thank you. Response needed by Thursday, noon. Richard G. Darman Deputy Assistant to the President and Staff Secretary (x-2702) Talking Points On The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills a commitment of his campaign: -- The President has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration The embargo had proved ineffective: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. -- American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: -2- -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place; export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on U.S. position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both U.S. and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1 -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision. -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- Planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop in 1982. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- Farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade The lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S.-Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response of Soviets should act against Poland Talking Points on The Presidential Decision To Lift The Grain Embargo President Reagan's decision to end the Soviet grain embargo fulfills his campaign commitment to do so: -- Has always been committed to its lifting when conditions would permit -- Began in-depth assessment of embargo during first days in office -- Considered trade, national security, and foreign policy factors -- On taking office, determined immediate lifting risked being misread by Soviets and others President Reagan decided embargo could now be lifted without any risk of misinterpretation because: -- U.S. resolve to condemn and oppose aggression and intervention is now clear and unambiguous -- Evidence has mounted that the embargo had not been effective policy tool -- Evidence also mounting that adverse impact on American farmers was not improving -- Has been some easing of tensions in Eastern Europe The decision was made on the day announced, Friday, April 24, 1981, but international consultations were conducted to keep appropriate nations advised: -- Allies were notified at the time of decision and had been kept informed throughout previous week of considerations being given to the subject -- Soviet Union had been advised that the action was under consideration Assessments of the impact of the embargo have been mixed: -- U.S.S.R. imports of grain were disrupted in the early months of the embargo but over the first year, total imports from all sources were higher than ever, though imports from the U.S. were the lowest since 1977. -- American agriculture had to forego a large market for its products which remained available to producers of many other countries -2- The lifting of the embargo applies only to agricultural products: -- The embargo on sales of high technology industrial items remains in place and export licenses for other goods and equipment will continue to be reviewed on case-by-case basis. The long-term grain sales agreement negotiated with the Soviets in the fall of 1975 expires on September 30th. -- Decision remains to be made on US position with respect to extension or renegotiation of the agreement -- A new agreement is possible. Both US and Soviets agree current agreement has served well but changes could be considered in: 6 million ton minimum sales requirement Provision voiding minimum requirement if domestic crop below 225 million tons -- 8 million tons committed to be sold to Soviets under the agreement have been sold and most of it shipped to the Soviets by April 1. -- Not known how much additional will be sold now. Record wheat harvest of 1980 can accomodate several extra million tons in export trade There is no reason to expect any major adverse impact on the domestic economy resulting from this decision -- Domestic food prices in 1981 should be relatively unaffected since any additional tonnage sold will be a small fraction of total supplies available -- in 1982, planting intentions of American farmers promise another record crop. Weather and general inflationary conditions in the economy would affect food prices more than any decision affecting 1982 exports -- farmers should be aided by the addition of this market for their export trade Promised by the President, the lifting of the grain embargo does not, in and of itself, indicate change in basic U.S.-Soviet relations: -- No change in our opposition to invasion of Afghanistan -- No implication of willingness to accept status quo there 62 -3- - - -- We remain concerned about Poland and believe conditions there should be resolved by Polish people without outside intervention -- U.S. and allies remain committed to firm response if Soviets should act against Poland 63 MEMORANDUM 2332 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL April 30, 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD V. ALLEN FROM: ALLEN J. LENZ oft SUBJECT: Talking Points on Presidential Decision to Lift the Grain Embargo Richard Pipes and I have reviewed the attached talking points (Tab A), provided by both White House Communications and Richard Darman's office, which deal with lifting the grain embargo. At Tab I are two memoranda for your signature. The first is to Frank A. Ursomarso, Director, White House Communications; the second to Richard G. Darman. Both memoranda approve dis- tribution of the talking points to White House Senior Staff and public affairs officials of the Cabinet. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memoranda at Tab I approving distribution of subject talking points. Approve Disapprove SIGNED 5/4/81 CC: Richard Pipes 5/4/81 64 FROM THE DESK OF SHARON KISSEL Paula- This is in today's NY Times I 1 Room 368) 65 EXPORTS TO THE SOVIET UNION Shifting Patterns EXPORTS TO ALL OTHER COUNTRIES Of Argentine TOTAL EXPORTS Grain Exports Exports to the Soviet Union and all other countries in millions 1977 of metric tons. Data are for year harvest was concluded and include oilseeds. 1978 1979 Source: Argentine Grain Board. 1981 data are New York Times estimates. 1980 1981 16 12 8 4 0 4 8 12 16 New York Times, 5/4/81 Pg.Di The New York Times/May 4, 1981 End of Grain Curb Worries Argentina Boutell, chief economist at the Argen- By EDWARD SCHUMACHER tine Grain Board. Argentina last year sold 7.6 million Special to The New York Times metric tons of grain to the Soviet BUENOS AIRES, May 3- It is now Union, about four times as much as the autumn in the Southern Hemisphere year before. This year, it expected to and Argentine farmers are just com- sell the Soviet Union up to 15 million pleting the largest harvest in their tons, or almost 80 percent of its total country's history: some 35 million met- grain exports. ric tons of corn, wheat and other Argentine grain suppliers largely grains. stepped into the breach created by the The ports here are backed up for grain curb, an opportunism that United weeks as ships stream in to carry away States officials charged largely under- the valuable food cargo from the mined the American action. The Ar- world's third-largest grain exporter. gentines say, however, that the Soviet Argentina has benefited tremen- trade was crucial to their economy làst dously from its decision 15 months ago year. They say it prevented a poor year to ignore an appeal by the United of zero growth from turning into a dis- States to join in a curtainment of grain aster. Moreover, they say, they were shipments to the Soviet Union. But not consulted before the curtailment President Reagan's decision last week was imposed and they had predicted to end the grain curb casts a shadow of that it would be futile anyway. apprehension over the booming ports. President Reagan's announcement Increased Sales Sharply ending the curb was met with some smugness here. "Politics has a lot to "We have to wait and see what is say in international economic affairs," going to happen on the Chicago futures said one grain trader. "If I were the market and what the Russians are going to do," said Carlos P. Chevallier- Continued on Page D4 Argentina Is Concerned About Grain Curb End Continued From First Business Page determine how the companies rank in relation to each other. Russians, I would now teach the Ameri- Argentine traders say they still ex- cans a lesson and not buy from them." pect the Soviet Union to buy the bulk of But the Argentines are not the Rus- their harvest and that the Russians are sians and they now face new competi- going slow in order to judge the size of tion for the lucrative Soviet market their own projected large harvest this from the United States and from Cana- year. The Argentines, nonetheless, are da, Australia and other Western coun- anxiously waiting to see what new tries that joined the grain curb. France agreement the United States will ne- has announced that it would sell 600,000 gotiate with the Soviet Union to replace tons of grains to the Soviet Union. the one that expires in September. But if American farmers are pleased Argentina has a disadvantage of with the lifting of the curb, they will being far from the major world mar- find that the Argentines have been kets, creating a transportation cost preparing for a fight. Argentina con- that is aggravated by poor port facili- cluded a five-year agreement with the ties, creating the current logjam. Soviet Union last year to provide a Argentina traditionally sells its minimum of 4.5 million tons of feed grains at a little below world prices to grains a year. Argentina has already make up for the transportation. Last sold that much plus 2.2 million tons year, it forced the Soviet Union to pay more in wheat to the Soviet Union so far well above world prices, but already this year, Mr. Chevallier-Boutell said. Argentine prices have fallen to their The Argentines, however, are rely- old relative levels. The Soviet Union is ing on selling much more to the Soviet buying Argentine corn, for example, at Union, and the Russians are not buy- roughly $10 a ton below world prices, ings as much as the Argentines had forcing the Argentine Grain Board to hoped. This year's huge harvest adds to step in and set a floor price of roughly the fear that the country could be stuck $110 a ton. with a glut of grains that it may have to Despite last year's boom, farmers sell at low prices. have been hurt by interest rates of up to "It's all part of the risks you have to 150 percent a year that reflect the coun- run in this business," said Carlos try's virulent inflation. Almost three- Guietz, trade manager of Bunge y fourths of the nation's export earnings Born, one of the big five grain trading are from agriculture, and the country companies here that have prospered as ended last year with a balance-of-pay- a result of the grain curb. ments deficit of almost $5 million. A 30 The leading grain trading companies percent currency devaluation to help are the Continental Grain Company, increase exports was announced last Cargill Inc., Dreyfus, Bunge y Born month. and La Plata. Because they are pri- The Government also has renewed a vately held, no revenues or profits fig- ures are available, and it is difficult to grain export agreement with China for one million tons of wheat and soybeans a year and signed an agreement with Mexico for one million tons of sorghum and soybeans a year. Last week, it an- nounced a five-year agreement to ex- port up to 100,000 tons of beef a year to the Soviet Union, an agreement that could bring in as much as $1 billion. The Government hopes that these measures - and attempts to recapture some smaller markets that it dropped to sell to the Soviet Union - will help it overcome the re-entry of the United States into Soviet grain trade. Parila Dobriansky Rm 368 MEMORANDUM 2772 GRAiN 67 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL EMBARGO May 15, 1981 INFORMATION MEMORANDUM FOR RICHARD V. ALLEN FROM: DOUGLAS FEITH Pix SUBJECT: The US Grain Embargo and Economic Threats No one in the administration, I assume, is eager to enter further discussions of the decision to lift the grain embargo against the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, some such discussions are inevitable and what follows will aid administration offi- cials in using grain embargo queries to promote a diplomatically useful point of view regarding economic threats against the United States and its allies. The grain embargo against the Soviet Union was an empty gesture (as such, it symbolized the previous administration's approach to dealing with the Kremlin). It distressed U.S. farmers, who resented the disruption of their business, but it had insubstan- tial economic effect on the Soviet Union. It neither restricted the amount of grain the Soviets could import nor increased sub- stantially the costs of such imports. The embargo was economi- cally insignificant because (1) a number of nations besides the United States export wheat, (2) a simple declaration that one exporter refuses to sell to a given country does not affect the total amount of wheat in the international export "pool", hence the market clearing price of that wheat does not change, and (3) in any event, it is impossible to monitor and prevent re- sale of a fungible commodity like wheat. In short, the U.S. grain embargo demonstrated once again that selective embargoes of basic commodities do not work (i.e., do not penalize the "target" nation). This analysis applies to oil as well as wheat, as was proved by both the 1973-74 Arab embargo of the United States and the Netherlands and the 1979 Iranian embargo of the United States. By publicly displaying that they understand the economics of selective embargoes of commodities like wheat and oil, U.S. officials would (1) put potential sources of embargo threats on notice that Washington will not be cowed by bluster, 68 2 (2) educate our allies, and (3) reduce the likelihood of costly panic here in the United States in the event of an announced anti-US embargo in the future. Overall, the effect would be to free the administration of the constraints placed upon its. diplomacy by ungrounded fears of embargo. CC: Norman Bailey Richard Pipes PaulaDobriansky