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Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Digital Library Collections This is a PDF of a folder from our textual collections. Collection: Executive Secretariat, NSC: Country File: Records, 1981-1985 SERIES: III: EUROPE AND SOVIET UNION Folder Title: Ireland (03/01/1983-03/10/1983) Box: RAC Box 15 To see more digitized collections visit: https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/digitized-textual-material To see all Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Inventories, visit: https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/white-house-inventories Contact a reference archivist at: [email protected] Citation Guidelines: https://reaganlibrary.gov/archives/research- support/citation-guide National Archives Catalogue: https://catalog.archives.gov/ Last Updated: 05/09/2025 WITHDRAWAL SHEET Ronald Reagan Library Collection Name EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT, NSC: COUNTRY FILE Withdrawer KDB 7/7/2015 File Folder IRELAND (3/1-83-3/10/83) FOIA F03-002/5 Box Number 15 SKINNER 59 ID Doc Type Document Description No of Doc Date Restrictions Pages 168233 REPORT 1 8/2/1982 B1 Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] B-1 National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] B-2 Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] B-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] B-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial Information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] B-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] B-7 Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] B-8 Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] B-9 Release would disclose geological or geophysical information concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of gift. .560 National Security Council The White .louse 1 MAR 1220P 0 1 1983 Package # 1106 Bousue SEQUENCE TO ACTION John Poindexter 1 HAS BP SEEN A Bud McFarlane 2 m Jacque Hill 3 Judge Clark 4 A John Poindexter 5 Staff Secretary 6 D Sit Room I-Information A-Action R Retain D-Dispatch N-No further Action NOTE DISTRIBUTION cc: VP Meese Baker Deaver Other DAILEY COMMENTS Julyse, This in its referred to in Flo: the FBI report. R \ This letter should have been on small paper. should be brought to attention of whomean typed. 20 2 THE WHITE HOUSE WABHINGTON March 8, 1983 Dear Congressmán untorio Biaggi: Thank you very much for your letter of February 14 concerning a meeting on the subject of Ireland. I regret that I will not be able to meet with you and your delegation. I know that we all share a commitment to solving the problems of Northern Ireland through peaceful means based on the will of the people of Northern Ireland. Americans who love Ireland have the responsibility of supporting peaceful attempts to solve these problems and speaking out against the men of violence. Sincerely, Bur William P. Clark The Honorable Mario Biaggi House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515 3 ID 8301106 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL PAGE D01 REFERRAL DATE: 08 MAR 83 MEMORANDUM FOR: STATE SECRETARIAT DEPARTMENT OF STATE DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION: TO: BIAGGI, MARIO SOURCE: CLARK DATE: 08 MAR 83 KEYWORDS: IRELAND CONGRESSIONAL AC SUBJ: RESPONSE TO BIAGGI LTR RE REQUEST FOR MTG RE IRELAND REQUIRED ACTION: FOR DISPATCH TO PETER H. DAILEY US AMBASSADOR TO IRELAND DUBLIN DUEDATE: 11 MAR 83 COMMENTS: ** COURTESY COPY OF CLARK LTR MICHAEL WHEELER STAFF SECRETARY NW 1106 4 MEMORANDUM ACTION NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL February 23, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR WILLIAM P. CLARK SIGNED FROM: DENNI DR.S.S BLAIR SUBJECT: Response to Congressman Biaggi's Letter Attached for your signature is a reply to a letter from Mario Biaggi requesting a meeting with you to discuss the issue of reunification of Ireland. You have nothing to gain from such a meeting and the letter for your signature at Tab I politely turns down the request. Pear Peter Sommer concurs. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the letter at Tab I. Approve Disapprove Ltr signed 3/5/83. Tab I Letter to Biaggi Tab A Biaggi letter I om not a member of this org! send eco of bets DP. Daily 1106 5 MARIO BIAGGI COMMITTEES: 10TH DISTRICT, NEW YORK EDUCATION AND LABOR WASHINGTON OFFICE: SUBCOMMITTEES: 2428 RAYBURN HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING ELEMENTARY, SECONDARY AND Congress of the United States VOCATIONAL EDUCATION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515 (202) 225-2464 LABOR MANAGEMENT RELATIONS house of Representatives SELECT EDUCATION DISTRICT OFFICES: BRONX VICE-CHAIRMAN 2004 WILLIAMSBRIDGE ROAD Mashington, D.C. 20515 MERCHANT MARINE AND BRONX, NEW YORK 10461 FISHERIES (212) 931-0100 CONGRESSIONAL PORT CAUCUS QUEENS SUBCOMMITTEES: SECOND FLOOR February 14, 1983 CHAIRMAN, 22-02 STEINWAY STREET MERCHANT MARINE QUEENS, NEW YORK 11105 COAST GUARD AND NAVIGATION (212) 932-4448 SELECT COMMITTEE ON AGING SUBCOMMITTEE: Hon. William P. Clark CHAIRMAN, HUMAN SERVICES Assistant to the President for National DEMOCRATIC STEERING AND Security Affairs POLICY COMMITTEE The White House SELECT COMMITTEE ON NARCOTICS ABUSE AND CONTROL Washington, D.C. 20500 (EX-OFFICIO) CHAIRMAN, AD HOC Dear Judge Clark: CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE FOR IRISH AFFAIRS As Chairman of the bi-partisan Ad Hoc Congressional Committee for Irish Affairs, and on behalf of a delegation of concerned Irish Americans mostly from the Ancient Order of Hibernians, I am writing to request a meeting with you to discuss the issue of the reunification of Ireland. This meeting would be the direct outgrowth of a meeting which I attended in New York on January 21, 1983 sponsored by Mr. James A. Delaney, one of the National Directors of the Ancient Order of Hibernians. The meeting was called to discuss strategies aimed at developing a more positive United States role in the cause of peace and justice in Ireland. Among those who would attend the meeting is Mr. Joseph A. Roche, National President of the Ancient Order of Hibernians. In light of a brief discussion I had with you on the subject of Ireland and your own trip to Ireland as well as your membership in the Ancient Order of Hibernians, I hope you will be able to find time to meet with the delegation. I look forward to hearing from you at your earliest convenience. With warm regards, I am Sincerely, MARIO BIAGGI, M. C. P.S. Attached please find a list of names and addresses of individuals who would want to be included in any meeting you would agree to. They were in attendance with me on January 21 in New York. THIS STATIONERY PRINTED ON PAPER MADE WITH RECYCLED FIBERS Clark, William P. -2- February 14, 1983 1) Joseph A. Roche, National President, Ancient Order of Hibernians, 13002 Fork Road, Baldwin, Maryland 21013 2) James A. Delaney, National Director/Chairman, Right to Life Committee, 247 Patricia Drive, San Antonio, Texas 78216 3) James P. Shannon, National Director/Constitution Ritual and Progress Committee, 747 Val Sereno, Olivenhain, California 92024 NSC/S OFILE UNCLASSIFIED ID 8301106 7 RECEIVED 16 FEB 83 17 TO CLARK FROM BIAGGI, MARIO DOCDATE 14 FEB 83 KEYWORDS: IRELAND CONGRESSIONAL AC SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR APPT W/ CLARK RE REUNIFICATION OF IRELAND ACTION: PREPARE MEMO FOR CLARK DUE: 19 FEB 83 STATUS S FILES FOR ACTION FOR CONCURRENCE FOR INFO BLAIR SOMMER FORTIER MYER KIMMITT HILL COMMENTS REF# LOG NSCIFID (N/ ) ACTION OFFICER (S) COPIES TO Clark Y ASSIGNED 31, In DUE 3/5 ACTION Signature REQUIRED C MAR 0 8 1983 Clark spd th DB DISPATCH 3/08 W/ATTCH FILE at (C)ants in cy to AMB Peter Daily done mis 8 MEMORANDUM DECLASSIFIED NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WPC HAS SEEN CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION NLRR 748-15-301-7 October 4, 1982 BY KDB NARADATE 7/7/15 MEMORANDUM FOR WILLIAM P. CLARK FROM: DENNIS C BLAIR SUBJECT: Your Meeting with Irish Foreign Minister Collins October 4, 1982, 10:30 a.m. Attached is a State briefing paper for Eagleburger giving the four most important U.S.-Irish issues of the moment. You can expect that Collins will give you his negative views on the Prior initiative, and perhaps request that you personally put pressure on the British to adopt a different approach. In addition, Collins may ask you to accede to the Irish position on the Air Lingus dispute. The Irish wish to reply to British our questions concerning Air Lingus contacts with Libya. We prefer to send a Commerce Department official to Dublin. Tab A Briefing memo 9 United States Department of State Washington, D. C. 20520 DECLASSIFIED NLRR 748-15-30-2-6 BRIEFING MEMORANDUM S/S BY CDB NARA DATE 7/7/15 CONFIDENTIAL (Entire Text) TO: Under Secretary Eagleburger FROM: EUR - Richard Burt, Designate SUBJECT: Your Meeting with Irish Foreign Minister Gerard Collins at the UNGA I. YOUR OBJECTIVES 1. Seek Collins' views on the future role of UNIFIL. 2. Reaffirm US policy on Northern Ireland: that a lasting solution can be found only through a process of reconciliation between the two tradi- 11 tions in Northern Ireland and between Britain and Ireland. 3. (If Asked) Affirm the US need to obtain information on transfer of Aer Lingus aircraft to Libya and our sensitivity to Irish concerns. 4. (If Asked) Express our commitment to resolve promptly the rates (real estate tax) issue II. SETTING Collins came to the position of Foreign Minister with no background or known interest in foreign policy. In New York and Washington (October 1-5) he will press his government's announced first political priority -- the unity of Ireland. Eis schedule includes media appearances and meetings with rembers of Congress. Collins is sensitive to the kind of welcome he receives from Administration officials, given the Fianna Fail perception that the US favors a FitzGerald Government in Dublin. Collins may continue to seek an opportunity to meet privately with the Secretary. III. PARTICIPANTS U.S. Ireland Under Secretary Eagleburger Foreign Minister Collins Richard Burt - EUR Attachments: 1. President's Statement of 3/17/82 2. Biographic Sketch CONFIDENTIAL DECT OADR 10 CONFIDENTIAL -2- MP Drafted : EUR/NE:MBarry Clearances:EUR:RBlackwill EUR/NE:MSPendleton EB/EWT 00 RKirkpatrick IO/UNP:HSizer NEA/ARN:EJones pm L/M:KMalmborg CONF IDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL -3- IV. DISCUSSION OF OBJECTIVES Seek Collins' views on the future role of UNIFIL As a troop contributor to UNIFIL, the GOI is concerned about its future role as a peacekeeping force and will want to know your views. Prior to departing for New York, Collins told the press that Ireland has no intention of unilaterally withdrawing troops from Lebanon, but he expressed his concern about the current "inability of UNIFIL to fulfill its mandate". Collins is due to meet September 29 with the Foreign Ministers of Syria and Israel. Collins has emphasized the need "to put the Security Council and the Secretary-General on notice about the need to strengthen the mandate of the peacekeeping forces and improve their military capacity to ensure that they are allowed to discharge their role". Former Prime Minister FitzGerald expressed a similar view to us during his visit this week, adding that the make-up and quality of the force, which includes both trained professional soldiers (Irish) and conscripts, should also be reviewed. A KEY PART OF OUR EFFORT IN LEBANON IS TO NEGOTIATE A FRAMEWORK FOR THE EARLY WITHDRAWAL OF ALL FOREIGN FORCES. THE MULTINATIONAL FORCE IN BEIRUT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR A PEACEKEEPING OPERATION IN THE SOUTH. A STRENGTHENED UNIFIL WITH A WIDER MANDATE REMAINS OUR PREFERRED OPTION AS A PEACEKEEPING FORCE. WE HOPE IRELAND WILL CONTINUE ITS PARTICIPATION IN UNIFIL. WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS ON POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MANDATE? CONFIDENTIAL 12 CONFIDENTIAL -4- Reaffirm US policy on Northern Ireland: that a lasting solution can be found only through a process of reconciliation between the two traditions in Northern Ireland and between Britain and Ireland. The British "rolling devolution" proposal, calling for Assembly elections October 20, appears in serious trouble, although the major parties will at least field candidates. The Haughey Government has rejected the proposal. Collins will be looking to Washington to pressure the British to add an all-Ireland dimension and will emphasize that the solution should be worked out directly between Dublin and London. Specifically, Haughey and Collins want the British to withdraw its "guarantee" that Northern Ireland's relationship to the UK can be terminated only with the agreement of the majority community. Their position contrasts with ours and with that of Garret FitzGerald, who is convinced any solution requires that the separate identities of the two communities be guaranteed and who thinks the Prior plan, with all its defects, should be given a chance. Our interest at this time is to avoid any action which might contribute to an abortion of Prior's efforts. We also have an interest in encouraging the moderates, including John Hume's SDLP, to take seats in the Assembly, although this message to Collins would be more effective if it came from interested Congressional leaders. If the present limited political movement in the province breaks down, the IRA and other extremists may fill the void. THE PRESIDENT'S MARCH 17 STATEMENT CONTINUES AS THE BASIS OF US POLICY ON NORTHERN IRELAND. WE HAVE CAREFULLY AVOIDED ANY PUBLIC COMMENT ON THE PRIOR PLAN EXCEPT GENERALLY TO ENCOURAGE BRITISH EFFORTS TO WORK OUT A SOLUTION ACCEPTABLE TO THE TWO COMMUNITIES. O WE THINK A SOLUTION DEPENDS ON THE EFFORTS OF LEADERS IN NORTHERN IRELAND, BRITAIN AND IN THE REPUBLIC. WE ARE ANXIOUS TO SEE YOUR RELATIONS WITH LONDON BACK ON AN EVEN KEEL. O IF THE MODERATES MAKE A GOOD SHOWING IN THE ELECTION, THEY WILL HAVE MORE CREDIBILITY BOTH HERE AND IN LONDON. CONFIDENTIAL 13 CONFIDENTIAL -5- (If asked) Affirm the US need to obtain information on the transfer of Aer Lingus aircraft to Libya and our sensitivity to Irish concerns. Since October 1981 Commerce has been investigating the sale of three Boeing 707's by Aer Lingus to Libya's United African Airlines (UAA). The aircraft were sold without reexport licenses required by US law. The sale of a fourth Aer Lingus aircraft was cancelled after Commerce issued a temporary denial order in September 1981 against Aer Lingus and its agents. A request for information on the transfers and for Aer Lingus cooperation in the investigation was presented to the Irish in a December 3, 1981 diplomatic note. The Irish have cooperated by terminating a servicing contract for the aircraft between a partially-owned subsidiary, ATEL, and UAA. We have confirmed to the Irish that statutorily we are obligated to continue through the information gathering phase of the investigation, despite Irish complaints that the issue should not be "re-opened". We have proposed to make available Commerce DAS Ted Wu to travel to Dublin to review the issue with Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs Sean Gaynor. The Irish have countered with a proposal that we provide the GOI a questionnaire or specific list of docucentation required. Wu has told us he strongly prefers not to specify the documentation or prepare a questionnaire for presentation to the Irish but prefers to travel to Dublin as we had proposed. You should confirm to Collins our interest in resolving this issue promptly, and if pressed, reaffirm our desire to send Wu to Dublin for informal consultations in late October or early November. The Irish are anxious to resolve this matter quickly and quietly. Ambassador Dailey has assured Secretary General Sean Donlon that we are sensitive to that interest. O WE HAVE CAREFULLY REVIEWED THIS MATTER AND HAVE CONCLUDED TEAT STATUTORILY WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO RENEW OUR REQUEST TO AER LINGUS TO PROVIDE DOCUMENTATION ON THE SALE. CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF US LAWS AND REGULATIONS REQUIRES THAT OUR INVESTIGATION CONTINUE. WE ARE ANXIOUS TO RESOLVE THIS MATTER PROMPTLY. O (If Pressed) WE WOULD PREFER TO HAVE COMMERCE DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY WU TRAVEL TO DUBLIN FOR INFORMAL CONSULTATIONS, RATHER THAN TO MAKE A MORE FORMAL, WRITTEN SUBMISSION. CONFIDENTIAL 14 CONFIDENTIAL 6- (If asked) Express our commitment to resolve promptly the rates (real estate taxes) issue. The Dublin Corporation has assessed real property taxes (rates) against various US Government-owned properties since 1948. We have refused to pay these taxes on the ground that the affected properties are entitled to exemption based on international law, treaties in force between the two countries and reciprocity. Negotiations since 1948 have been relatively unproductive. Recently, the Dublin Corporation mounted a media campaign to embarrass the USG on this issue. The key issue underlying the dispute is whether the USG is obliged to pay the so-called "beneficial portion" of the rates. We believe that agreement between the two governments is near and that the USG will end up agreeing to a payment between 20% (the rate we pay in London) and 80% of the beneficial portion (claimed by the Dublin Corporation). Fil Shamwell from L/M will travel to Dublin in November for discussions with the Irish and will be prepared to make a concrete offer. O WE ARE ANXIOUS TO SETTLE THE RATES ISSUE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. O WE WILL BE SENDING A REPRESENTATIVE TO DUBLIN IN NOVEMBER WHO WE HOPE WILL BE ABLE TO REACH AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE BACK TAXES AND A SCHEDULE FOR FUTURE PAYMENTS. CONFIDENTIAL 15 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release March 17, 1982 STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT St. Patrick's Day reminds us of the power of joy. It is a day when spirits are lifted, when millions join together in friendship; when strangers greet each other with affection. The spell cast on us by a small island 3,000 miles away began more than a century ago when Irish immigrants first came to this land -- immigrants whose sweat and labor built our economy, whose hearts and minds shaped our literary and intellectual history, whose smiles and mirth gave us the gift of laughter, whose conscience and spirituality reminded us of the importance of religious faith in our lives. Today all Americans -- of Irish descent and honorary Irish descent -- celebrate one of the happiest days of the year in our country -- a day marked by peace, friendship and harmony. Yet today our thoughts cannot be entirely joyful -- we who owe SO much to the "land across the Irish sea" cannot help but reflect on a tragic irony: Northern Ireland is troubled by conflict and violence. We in America who owe so much to our kinsmen of both Irish and British heritage, Protestant and Catholic alike, can never be indifferent to the problem of violence in Northern Ireland. That is why we seek to contribute in any way we can to a lasting, peaceful solution that will bring to an end years of conflict and violence. The twelve months since last St. Patrick's Day have brought both hope and sorrow in Northern Ireland. There have been grounds for optimism for the future. The level of violence continued its generally downward trend. In this country, U.S. law enforcement authorities confiscated a large number of weapons intended for terrorist hands in Ireland. Perhaps most important despite the sorrows of the past year, there are signs that the climate has improved for moderate political solutions. We will continue to stand by our policy -- to urge the parties in Northern Ireland to come together for a just solution and to condemn all acts of terrorism and violence. We believe a -MORE- -2- 16 lasting solution can be found only through a process of reconciliation between the two traditions in Northern Ireland and between Britain and Ireland. We encourage and applaud such efforts. We particularly welcome the British and Irish governments' widening of the framework of their cooperation to this end. But as much as we wish for a just and peaceful settlement, we in the United States cannot chart a course for the people of Northern Ireland. If solutions are to endure, they must come from the people themselves. We stand unalterably opposed to the forces of violence and discord in Northern Ireland, which obstruct the process of reconciliation so necessary to peace. Those who advocate violence or engage in terrorism will have no welcome in the United States. Last year, I called on all Americans to question closely any appeal for financial or other aid from groups involved in the Northern Ireland conflict to ensure that contributions do not end up in the hands of those who perpetuate violence, either directly or indirectly. Today, I renew that request. Continued violence, even by a misguided few, can only frustrate the desire for peace of the overwhelming majority of the entire community of Northern Ireland. As we look to the future, we can be proud that the United States already is making an important contribution toward economic and social progress in Ireland. We are proud of our role in strengthening the Irish economy. There are over 300 American companies with manufacturing plants in Ireland. This investment by American industry shows a clear commitment to a future based on peace and well-being for the people who live in Ireland, North and South. This Administration will maintain the U.S. committment to facilitat growth of additional job-creating investment -- investment that wil benefit all the people of Ireland. In the meantime, we encourage the American private sector to continue to assist in creating more job opportunities in Ireland. In affirming these principles of our policy toward Northern Ireland I wish to add my appreciation and support for the many true friends of Ireland in this country, in the Congress and among the public, who continue to speak out against violence and in support of peace and reconciliation. Their efforts are among the most important contributions to the cause of peace in Northern Ireland, and I joir them in the prayer that our hopes will soon be realized. It is by assisting in commercial development, combating terrorism and encouraging the process of peaceful reconciliation that we in America can do our part to bring peace to Northern Ireland. ### WITHDRAWAL SHEET Ronald Reagan Library Collection Name Withdrawer EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT, NSC: COUNTRY FILE KDB 7/7/2015 File Folder FOIA IRELAND (3/1-83-3/10/83) F03-002/5 SKINNER Box Number 15 59 ID Document Type No of Doc Date Restric- Document Description pages tions 168233 REPORT 1 8/2/1982 B1 Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] B-1 National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] B-2 Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] B-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] B-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] B-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] B-7 Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] B-8 Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] B-9 Release would disclose geological or geophysical information concerning wells [(b)(9) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of gift. 13 National Security Council RECEIVED House Page Package # 368 82 OCT 4 A10: 05 SEQUENCE TO HAS SEEN ACTION John Poindexter Bud McFarlane Jacque Hill Judge Clark John Poindexter Staff Secretary Sit Room I-Information A-Action R-Retain D-Dispatch N-No further Action DISTRIBUTION cc: VP Meese Baker Deaver Other COMMENTS For 10:30 am mtg NSC/S PROFILE CONFIDENTIAL ID 8206898 UNCLASSIFIED UPO MOVA OF CLASSIFIED RNCLOSURE(S) RECEIVED 04 OCT 82 13 TO CLARK FROM BLAIR 7/7/15600 DOCDATE 04 OCT 82 19 KEYWORDS: IRELAND AC COLLINS, GERARD SUBJECT: CLARK MTG W/ IRISH FOMIN 4 OCT ACTION: FOR INFORMATION DUE: STATUS IX FILES FOR ACTION FOR CONCURRENCE FOR INFO CLARK COMMENTS REF# LOG NSCIFID (N/ ) ACTION OFFICER (S) ASSIGNED ACTION REQUIRED DUE COPIES TO C 10/4 noted by Clark- DB DISPATCH W/ATTCH FILE PA I (C) RH CONFIDENTIAL 20 WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023191 SIT586 DATE 10/21/82 TOR: 292/1406Z 3. THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT ATTEMPTED TO USE ITS DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 INITIAL REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PROPOSALS IN MARCH 1982 AS A BARGAINING CHIP TO GET A GREATER "IRISH DIMENSION" INCLUDED. THAT EFFORT BECAME WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: ENMESHED IN THE FALKLANDS ISSUE, HOWEVER, AND BY LATE SPRING, RELATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON SIT: CKLS HAD REACHED THE LOWEST LEVEL FOR TEN YEARS. THUS, EOB: COMMENTS: CHECKLIST WHILE THE GOI DID NOT NECESSARILY WANT THE SDLP TO WHSR COMMENT: TAKE THE LATE AUGUST DECISION NOT TO ACCEPT SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY DUBLIN OFFICIALS ACCEPT THAT, FROM MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: DECLASSIFIED THE NATIONALIST POINT OF VIEW, THE PARTY HAD LITTLE OPTION. THERE ARE FEARS IN DUBLIN, HOWEVER, THAT NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS NLRR 748-15-30-4-4 A FAILURE OF THE ASSEMBLY COULD, AT BEST, LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE POLITICAL STERILITY OF DIRECT MESSAGE: RULE OR, AT WORST, TO MOVES FOR NORTHERN BY EDB NARA PRIORITY DATE 7/7/15 IRELAND'S FULL INCORPORATION INTO THE UK. DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921356 4. AT THIS POINT, OTHER THAN THEIR INCREASINGLY P 191340Z OCT 82 DIMINISHED HOPE FOR THE INCLUSION OF AN "IRISH FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN DIMENSION" IN PRIOR'S NORTHERN PLAN, THE GOI SEES FEW OPTIONS STILL OPEN. ESSENTIALLY, THE MAIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9404 GAMBIT FOR THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE THE TIME-HONORED WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY APPROACH OF TURNING TO THE USG FOR HELP TO PRESSURE LONDON EITHER TO THINK MORE IN TERMS OF INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4061 AN "IRISH DIMENSION" AS THE BASIS FOR A SOLUTION AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1100 TO THE PROBLEMS OF NORTHERN IRELAND OR EVEN BT BETTER IN DUBLIN'S VIEW TO ALTER OR ELIMINATE CONFIDENTI SECTION 01 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 MESSAGE (CONTINUED): BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK THE BRITISH "GUARANTEE" ON NORTHERN IRELAND. WE E.O. 12356: DECL: 10/15/88 BELIEVE THAT, AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME (PERHAPS BY TAGS: PINT, PEPR, EI, UK MARCH OR APRIL), AND IF NEEDED, THE USG MIGHT PLAY A SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND: THE EVOLUTION OF DUBLIN'S QUIET BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN GETTING LONDON AND - POLICY DUBLIN TALKING AGAIN. OTHERWISE, HOWEVER, PRESIDENT REF: A) DUBLIN 3697; B) DUBLIN 3436; C) DUBLIN 3291; REAGAN'S MARCH 17, 1982 STATEMENT THAT IF NORTHERN D: DUBLIN 1851; E) DUBLIN 1641; F1 DUBLIN 1562; IRELAND SOLUTIAHNOJT TO "ENDURE THEY MUST COME G) DUBLIN 1045; H) DUBLIN 892; I) 81 DUBLIN 4584 FROM THE PEOPLE THEMSELVES" SHOULD REMAIN VERY MUCH THE BASIS OF OUR APPROACH TO THE ULSTER 1. C-ENTIRE TEXT PROBLEM. END SUMMARY. I. SUMMARY 11. MISUNDERSTANDINGS OVER DIALOGUE 2. EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FREEZE IN RELATIONS BETWEEN 5. EVEN BEFORE THE IRISH SHIFT ON THE FALKLANDS DUBLIN AND LONDON EXACERBATED THE IRISH SHIFT SANCTIONS QUESTION IN MAY, 1982, LONDON-DUBLIN ON THE FALKLANDS SANCTIONS, THE FREEZE'S REAL RELATIONS HAD COOLED PERCEPTIBLY. IN LARGE ORIGINS LIE IN DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE TWO COUNTRIES MEASURE THE DECLINE WAS STARTED BY A RIFT OVER INTERPRETATION OF WHAT CONSTITUTES THE BEST NORTHERN IRELAND AND SIMPLY ACCELERATED BY APPROACH TO DEVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND. THIS, IN DIFFERENCES OVER THE FALKLANDS. INDEED, NEWLY PART, STEMS FROM CLEARLY DIFFERING INTERPRETATIONS ELECTED PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY LITERALLY FROM HIS FIRST DAY BACK IN OFFICE DESPITE THE FACT MESSAGE (CONTINUED) : OF WHAT THE ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE SIGNIFIES AND WHAT AGREEMENTS HAVE BEEN REACHED AS A RESULT OF THE PROCESS. FOR DUBLIN THE DIALOGUE ITSELF IS BASED UPON A RECOGNITION BY LONDON OF AN IRISH DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023191 RIGHT TO A ROLE IN THE DETERMINATION OF NORTHERN IRELAND'S FINAL STATUS. FUNDAMENTAL TO THIS PROCESS, THE IRISH BELIEVED THAT THEY HAD WON AGREEMENT THAT THERE WOULD BE FULL AND REGULAR CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON ON SUCH ISSUES AS THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PROPOSALS. FROM THE IRISH POINT OF VIEW THERE WERE INADEQUATE CONSULTATIONS OVER THE PRIOR PLAN AND WHAT THERE WERE RAISED FALSE HOPES IN DUBLIN THAT WERE DASHED BY THE FINAL PRODUCT A DOCUMENT THAT THE GOI BELIEVES TO BE VOID OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" AND UNACCEPTABLE TO THE NORTHERN NATIONALISTS CONF DENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL RECALLED 21 WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023198 SIT943 RECALLED TOR: 292/1413Z DISTRIBUTION: RCAL /001 PRIORITY DE RUFHDB *3815/02 2921404 P 191340Z OCT 82 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9405 WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4062 AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1101 CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 02 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN A CAMPAIGN ISSUE DECLARED NORTHERN IRELAND HIS PRINCIPAL POLITICAL PRIORITY (REF H). TWO WEEKS LATER. ON MARCH 22, HE REJECTED THE PRIOR PROPOSALS FOR DEVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND - - THEREBY SETTING THE GOI ON A SEEMINGLY INEVITABLE COLLISION COURSE WITH THE BRITISH (REF G). 6. THE BASIC DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE IRISH AND THE BRITISH - - - AS VIEWED FROM DUBLIN -- STEMS FROM A FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE OVER THE NATURE OF THE UNDERSTANDINGS WORKED OUT DURING THE ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE. THAT DIALOGUE STARTED IN DECEMBER 1980 WITH A MEETING IN LONDON BETWEEN PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY (THEN IN HIS FIRST TERM IN OFFICE) AND PRIME MINISTER THATCHER. THE IRISH VIEW THE PROCESS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL RECALLED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM 22 PAGE 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023198 WHICH STARTED WITH THAT FIRST MEETING AS BASED UPON A CLEAR ACCEPTANCE BY LONDON THAT DUBLIN WOULD HAVE A ROLE IN ANY FUTURE NORTHERN IRELAND SETTLEMENT AND THAT FUNDAMENTAL TO THAT ROLE WOULD BE ONGOING CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO - GOVERNMENTS OVER PROPOSALS SUCH AS NORTHERN IRELAND SECRETARY JAMES PRIOR'S DEVOLUTION PLAN. 7. SOURCES AT THE DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DFA) ANGLO-IRISH DIVISION CONCEDE THAT THE DIALOGUE PROCESS HAD ALREADY COME CLOSE TO DERAILING IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 1981 OVER THE HUNGER STRIKE ISSUE. INDEED, MANY POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN DUBLIN SUGGEST THAT CHARLES HAUGHEY'S DEFEAT IN THE JUNE 1981 GENERAL ELECTIONS WAS PARTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HIS VERY VISIBLE INABILITY TO PERSUADE MRS. THATCHER TO BE MORE FLEXIBLE OVER THE HUNGER-STRIKE ISSUE. HAUGHEY HAD STAKED A GREAT DEAL OF POLITICAL CAPITAL UPON THE RELATIONSHIP HE HAD ESTABLISHED WITH LONDON AS PART OF THE ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE PROCESS, BUT WHEN THAT RELATIONSHIP COULD HAVE AMOUNTED TO SOMETHING IN POLITICAL TERMS HAUGHEY WAS SEEN AS BEING UNABLE TO INFLUENCE EVENTS. DENNIS COGLAN, THE IRISH TIMES POLITICAL CORRESPONDANT, TOLD AN EMBOFF THAT THIS WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE "BAD BLOOD" BETWEEN HAUGHEY AND THATCHER WHICH HAS MADE THE DETERIORATION IN LONDON-DUBLIN RELATIONS SOMETHING NOT ONLY POLITICAL BUT QUITE PERSONAL. ACCORDING TO COGLAN, HAUGHEY IN PRIVATE BLAMES MRS. THATCHER PERSONALLY AND DIRECTLY FOR HIS 1981 DEFEAT. 111. ORIGINS OF THE PRIOR PLAN - - TOO MUCH RATHER THAN TOO LITTLE CONSULTATION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL RECALLED WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM 23 PAGE 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023198 8. RELATIONS BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN STARTED OFF SHAKILY IN THE EARLY DAYS OF GARRET FITZGERALD'S ADMINISTRATION IN JULY 1981. IN PARTICULAR, FITZGERALD'S ATTEMPT TO ENLIST PRESIDENT REAGAN'S ASSISTANCE IN PRESSURING PRIME MINISTER THATCHER TO ADOPT A MORE FLEXIBLE ATTITUDE OVER THE HUNGER STRIKE DID NOT. ACCORDING TO DFA OFFICIALS. "SIT WELL" WITH LONDON. NONETHELESS. THE APPOINTMENT OF JAMES PRIOR TO THE NORTHERN IRELAND OFFIM IN SEPTEMBER AND HIS INITIAL OPENNESS TO DUBLIN GAVE A NEW IMPETUS TO THE PROCESS AND CREATED A NEW OPTIMISM AT DFA. 9. THIS NEW OPTIMISM WAS CAPPED IN NOVEMBER 1981 WHEN PRIME MINISTER FITZGERALD AND PRIME MINISTER THATCHER MET IN LONDON FOR A NEW ROUND OF THE DIALOGUE AND AT THE END OF A CORDIAL AND SUCCESSFUL ROUND OF TALKS ISSUED A JOINT COMMUNIQUE WHICH CALLED FOR THE RECONCILIATION OF THE TWO TRADITIONS IN IRELAND AND FOR CONTINUING EFFORT BETWEEN THE TWO GOVERNMENTS TO FIND A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS OF NORTHERN IRELAND (REF 1). ALREADY BY THEN PRIOR, WHO HAD BEEN ON THE JOB LESS THAN TWO MONTHS, WAS PUTTING TOGETHER A NEW INITIATIVE ON NORTHERN IRELAND. 10. IN MARCH OF 1982 PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY SUGGESTED THAT ONE OF THE REASONS HE REJECTED THE DEVOLUTION PLAN WAS THAT IT HAD BEEN PROMULGATED WITHOUT CONSULTATIONS WITH DUBLIN. IN CONVERSATIONS WITH THE DFA. AND GOI POLITICAL LEADERS, HOWEVER, EMBOFF WAS TOLD REPEATEDLY THAT PROBLEM WAS TOO MUCH CONSULTATION - - FALSELY RAISING EXPECTATIONS -- RATHER THAN TOO LITTLE. FROM NOVEMBER 1981 TO JANUARY 1982 PRIOR. HIS DEPUTY LORD GOWERY. OR BT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM 24 PAGE 01 DUBLIN 3815 DTG:1913402 OCT 82 PSN: 023211 SIT585 DATE 10/21/82 TOR: 292/1422Z POTENTIAL DEVOLUTION PLAN. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A GROWING CONVICTION THAT THE PRINCIPAL DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 WESTMINISTER OPPOSTITION WAS AND CONTINUES TO BE PRIME MINISTER THATCHER HERSELF. WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: 13. FROM JANUARY ONWARD, WHEN THE SHIFT ON THE ACTUAL CONTENT OF THE DEVOLUTION PLAN WAS OCCURRING, SIT: MCF CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN SEEM TO EOB: HAVE COME TO AN END. IN DFA'S VIEW, IT WAS WHEN WHSR COMMENT: PRIOR RAN INTO WESTMINISTER OPPOSITION TO HIS MORE INNOVATIVE ASPECTS OF HIS PLAN THAT CONSULTA- MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: TIONS BETQEEN PRIOR'S TEAM AND THOSE DEALING WITH NORTHERN IRELAND IN DUBLIN SHOULD HAVE BEEN NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS AT THEIR HEIGHT. INSTEAD, JUST THE OPPOSITE OCCURRED. PRIOR SEEMS TO HAVE "HUNKERED-DOWN" MESSAGE: AND PUSHED THROUGH WHAT HE COULD GET AT WESTMINISTER WITHOUT FURTHER REFERENCE TO THOSE PRIORITY HE HAD SO ACTIVELY CONSULTED IN THE INITIAL STAGES DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921412 OF THE PROCESS. AS ONE GOI OFFICIAL PUT IT, "HE P 191340Z OCT 82 RAISED EXPECTATIONS, WHETTED APPETITES, AND THEN FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN SNATCHED IT ALL AWAY." IV. DUBLIN'S EARLY REJECTION OF THE PLAN--A TACTIC TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9406 WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY WHICH FAILED. INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4063 AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1102 14. IT IS, PERHAPS, THIS SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AND BT DISAPPOINTMENT WHICH LED TO HAUGHEY'S EARLY C ONFIDENTIAL SECTION 03 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 MESSAGE (CONTINUED): BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK REJECTION OF THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PLAN WHEN HE SENIOR NORTHERN IRELAND OFFICE OFFICIALS DISCUSSED MANAGED TO FORM A GOVERNMENT IN MARCH. THAT POSSIBLE ASPECTS OF A DEVOLUTION PLAN WITH THE REJECTION FROM THE OUTSET WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY LEADERS OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC COORDINATED WITH THE SDLP. IT IS BY NO MEANS AND LABOR PARTY (SDLP) AND DUBLIN OFFICIALS. CLEAR, HOWEVER, THAT THIS REJECTION WAS MEANT TO BE FINAL. RATHER, AS ONE FIANNA FAIL DEPUTY TOLD 11. THE SDLP LEADERSHIP IN TURN -- AS CUSTOMARY EMBOFF, IT WAS INTENDED BY THE PRIME MINISTER DISCUSSED PRIOR'S APPROACHES QUITE REGULARLY "AS A WARNING SHOT ACROSS THE BOW" TO JIM PRIOR WITH SENIOR IRISH GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION WITH THE HOPE--PERHAPS IN RETROSPECT FORLORN-- FIGURES, INCLUDING BOTH THEN PRIME MINISTER THAT ADDITIONAL ELEMENTS COULD BE ADDED TO THE GARRET FITZGERALD AND THEN OPPOSITION LEADER DEVOLUTION PLAN. CHARLES HAUGHEY. FROM THE QUESTIONS BEING ASKED BY PRIOR AND HIS PEOPLE, FROM THE IDEAS THAT 15. MOST NOTABLY, THE SDLP REPRESENTATIVES, IN EMERGED FROM THESE DISCUSSIONS, AND THE SEEMING THEIR TALKS IN DUBLIN, SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN LOOKING READY ACCEPTANCE OF WHAT ONE DFA OFFICIAL FOR DUBLIN SUPPORT TO OBTAIN SOMETHING IN THE DESCRIBED AS SOME "TRUELY INNOVATIVE IDEAS", MOST PLAN THAT WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY SATISFY GOI OFFICIALS AND POLITICAL LEADERS BELIEVED THAT THEIR NATIONALIST CONSTITUENCY IN THE NORTH THAT PRIOR FULLY INTENDED TO MAKE PROPOSALS THAT WOULD SOME ASPECT OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" HAD BEEN CONTAIN A VERY REAL "IRISH DIMENSION", POSSIBLY INCLUDED. VARIOUS PROVISIONS TO ACHIEVE THIS ARE INCLUDING SOME FORM OF POWER-SHARING THOUGH MENTIONED AND CERTAINLY SOME FORM OF INSTITUTIONALIZED POWER SHARING WOULD HAVE COME THE CLOSEST TO MESSAGE (CONTINUED): SATISFYING DUBLIN. MOST NOTABLY, HOWEVER, THE CONCEPT OF A PARLIAMENTARY TIER TO THE ANGLO-IRISH PERHAPS NOT UNDER THAT EMOTIONALLY CHARGED NAME. PROCESS IS MOST FREQUENTLY CITED IN DUBLIN AS THE FACTOR WHICH COULD HAVE MADE THE DIFFERENCE 12. FROM JANUARY 1982 ONWARDS, HOWEVER, IT IN NATIONALIST ACCEPTANCE OF THE PLAN. BECAME APPARENT TO OFFICIALS IN DUBLIN THAT PRIOR WAS BACKING AWAY FROM SOME OF THE MORE INNOVATIVE MEASURES HE AT FIRST HAD SEEMED TO BE ADVOCATING AND MOVING TOWARD WHAT ONE IRISH OFFICIAL DESCRIBED AS THE "LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR" APPROACH TO DEVOLUTION. THE REASONS FOR PRIOR'S DUBLIN 3815 DTG:1913402 OCT 82 PSN: 023211 SHIFT TO A DEVOLUTION PLAN THAT, IN THE VIEW OF MANY SENIOR GOI OFFICIALS NOW COMPLETELY IGNORES THE IRISH DIMENSION, HAVE BEEN VERY ABLY REPORTED BY BELFAST (REF C. FOR MOST HERE IN DUBLIN THE "BOTTOM LINE" IS THAT PRIOR "CHICKENED-OUT" WHEN HE SAW THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION AT WESTMINISTER TO A FULL IRISH DIMENSION BEING INCLUDED IN ANY CONF IDENTIAL CONF IDENTIAL 25 WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 DUBL 3815 DTG:191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023222 SIT579 DATE 10/21/82 TOR: 292/1430Z MAINTAIN THAT-WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE SDLP'S REASONS FOR THE DECISION--IRISH OFFICIALS, DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 INCLUDING PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, WOULD HAVE BEEN HAPPIER IF THE SDLP HAD ENTERED THE ASSEMBLY. IF THE SDLP'S WORST FEARS HAD BEEN REALIZED AND WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: THE ASSEMBLY BEGAN TO TAKE SHAPE AS WHAT ONE COMMENTATOR DESCRIBED AS "STORMONT REDIVIVUS," SIT: MCF THE SDLP COULD HAVE BROUGHT IT DOWN BY THEN EOB: WITHDRAWING. ONE PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTY TOLD EMBOFF WHSR COMMENT: THAT, THOUGH HE SHARED THE SDLP'S PESSIMISM OVER THE POLITICAL VIABILITY OF THE ASSEMBLY, IT WOULD MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: HAVE BEEN BETTER FOR THE FUTURE OF THE SDLP IF THEY HAD "AT LEAST APPEARED WILLING TO TRY AND MAKE NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS IT WORK." MESSAGE: 19. IN THE EVENT, HOWEVER, THAT WAS NOT THE PATH THE SDLP ELECTED TO FOLLOW, DUBLIN, THEREFORE, PRIORITY NOW FACES BOTH IMMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM DE RUEHDBA #3815 2921420 "UNPLEASANT REALITIES." WITH THE ASSEMBLY ELECTION P 191340Z OCT 82 LESS THAN TWO DAYS AWAY THE DFA AND THE FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN POLITICAL LEVEL LEADERSHIP IN DUBLIN IS WELL AWARE THAT THE SDLP ITSELF FACES A MAJOR CRISIS OVER TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9407 THIS ELECTION. THE PARTY HAS ASKED ITS SUPPORTERS WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY FOR AN ELECTORAL MANDATE ENDORSING THEIR DECISION NOT TO TAKE THE SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY. DFA FEARS INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4064 THAT SUCH A MANDATE WILL NOT BE FORTHCOMING AND AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1103 THAT THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MODERATE NATIONALIST BT POSITION IN THE NORTH WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. CON SECTION 04 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 MESSAGE (CONTINUED): BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK DFA IS ALSO CONCERNED THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE (ALBEIT-THEY HOPE--A SMALL ONE) THAT THE 16. SUCH A TIER WOULD HAVE CREATED A COMMITTEE UNIONIST PARTIES OF THE NORTH WILL--WITH THE (NOT CALLED A COUNCIL OF IRELAND BECAUSE THAT TOO POSSIBILITY THAT MOST NATIONALIST VOTERS WILL SIMPLY is AN EMOTIONALLY CHARGED TERM) MADE UP OF MEMBERS STAY AWAY FROM THE POLLS--BE ABLE IN THEIR OWN FROM THE NEW NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY, THE IRISH RIGHT TO GARNER THE 70 PERCENT OF THE SEATS NEEDED PARLIAMENT, AND PRESUMABLY THE WESTMINISTER UNDER THE PRIOR PLAN TO VOTE FOR THE DEVOLUTION TO PARLIAMENT AS WELL. REACTING TO JAMES PRIOR'S THE ASSEMBLY OF CERTAIN REAL POWERS MAKING IT RECENT CHARACTERIZATION OF SUCH A TIER AS MERELY A INDEED A NEW STORMONT. "TALK SHOP," A DFA OFFICIAL OBSERVED THAT "IT WOULDN'T MATTER IF AT FIRST IT WAS ONLY A TALK 20. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS DUBLIN'S SHOP BECAUSE EVEN "TALKING" BETWEEN PARLIAMENTARIANS FEAR THAT FOR NOW THE PRIOR INITIATIVE, WHICH THEY FROM DUBLIN AND BELFAST WOULD REPRESENT MORE BELIEVED WAS DOOMED FROM THE BEGINNING, WILL LEAVE PROGRESS THAN WE HAVE MADE IN THE FULL 60 YEARS THE BRITISH IN THE POSITION OF AT LEAST SEEMING SINCE THE TREATY." TO HAVE DONE SOMETHING TO BRING ABOUT PEACEFUL CHANGE IN NORTHERN IRELAND. THIS, IN TURN, WILL 17. IN THE EVENT, HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE OF DUBLIN THEREBY LESSEN ANY PRESSURE THAT MIGHT BE APPLIED REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PLAN AS A BARGAINING PLOY TO MRS. THATCHER'S GDVERNMENT UNTIL THE BRITISH WITH LONDON WAS NEVER REALLY PUT TO THE TEST. GENERAL ELECTION WHICH MOST NOW EXPECT NEXT AUTUMN. WITHIN A FEW WEEKS LONDON WAS ENMESHED IN THE IN THE LONG TERM, IF THOSE ELECTIONS ARE CLOSE--AS SOME EXPECT-THERE IS REAL FEAR IN DUBLIN THAT THE MESSAGE (CONTINUED): 12 OR 13 SEATS WHICH THE UNIONISTS WILL LIKELY HAVE IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT WILL EXERT FAR MORE FALKLANDS CRISIS AND DUBLIN, FOR MANY REASONS, INFLUENCE THAN NOW--MUCH AS THEY DID IN THE WANING INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO PIQUE OVER THE DAYS OF THE CALLAGHAN GOVERNMENT IN THE LATE 70'S. DEVOLUTION PLAN (SEE REF A FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE IF MRS. THATCHER WINS OUTRIGHT, DFA IS EVEN MORE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH LED TO DUBLIN'S BREAK) HAD BROKEN WITH THE EC OVER THE ARGENTINE SANCTIONS AND RELATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON HAD REACHED THE "DEEP-FREEZE" LEVEL. NO "THAW" IN RELATIONSHIPS HAS OCCURRED SINCE THAT POINT. DUBL 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023222 18. WHILE IT IS CLEAR THAT PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AND THE SDLP WERE COORDINATING CLOSELY AT THE TIME OF HIS INITIAL REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PLAN, IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN--AND INDEED STOUTLY DENIED IN DUBLIN--THAT THE GOI WAS BEHIND THE SDLP'S DECISION TO CONTEST THE ASSEMBLY ELECTION BUT NOT TAKE SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY. DFA OFFICIALS CONF IDENTIAL CONF DENTIAL 26 WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 DUBL IN 3815 DTG:191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 013236 SIT578 DATE 10/21/82 TOR: 292/1437Z UNIONISTS THAT NORTHERN IRELAND WILL REMAIN A PART OF THE UK SO LONG AS THE MAJORITY OF ITS PEOPLE WISH DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 IT TO BE. DUBLIN, AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO ENDING THE GUARANTEE, WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT PHRASED IN A MORE POSITIVE FASHION THAT WOULD IMPLY SOME WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: ACCEPTANCE FROM LONDON OF AN EVENTUAL REALIGNMENT IN THIS ISLAND--PERHAPS TO THE EFFECT SIT: MCF THAT "HER MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT OBJECT EOB: TO A CHANGE IN THE STATUS OF NORTHERN IRELAND SO WHSR COMMENT: LONG AS THAT CHANGE CAME ABOUT BY THE WILL OF THE MAJORITY." MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: 23. FOREIGN MINISTER COLLINS, BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS FOR THE US, PUBLICALLY STATED THAT NORTHERN IRELAND WOULD BE THE CENTRAL THEME OF HIS VISIT MESSAGE: TO THE US (REF B). REPORTS ON THAT VISIT INDICATE THAT HE LOOKED FOR AS MUCH SUPPORT AS HE COULD PRIORITY MUSTER BOTH FROM THE LEGISLATIVE AND THE EXECUTIVE DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921428 BRANCH IN GENERATING THE KIND OF PRESSURE DUBLIN P 191340Z OCT 82 BELIEVES IS NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE PEACEFUL CHANGE FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USED THE OCCASION OF THE VISIT TO GENERATE AS MUCH MEDIA ATTENTION AS TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9408 POSSIBLE TO THIS END. WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY 24. COMMENT INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4065 AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1104 A RENEWED ATTEMPT BY THE GO: TO ENLIST AMERICAN BT SUPPORT FOR HELPING TO ACHIEVE CHANGES IN NORTHERN CON IDENTI SECTION 05 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 MESSAGE (CONTINUED) : BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK IRELAND BY BRINGING PRESSURE TO BEAR ON LONDON CONCERNED THAT, GIVEN HER OWN INCLINATIONS, SHE NEEDS TO BE APPROACHEO AT TWO DIFFERENT LEVELS. WILL SIMPLY DROP ALL PRETENSE AT TRYING TO FORM FIRST, ON THE QUESTION OF OVER-ALL US POLICY, WE A DEVOLVED GOVERNMENT IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND BELIEVE THAT PRESIDENT REAGAN'S MARCH 17, 1982 MOVE FOR FULL INTEGRATION WITH THE UK. (DFA STATEMENT STILL OFFERS THE BEST AND WISEST AMERICAN DOES NOT REALLY ENTERTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LABOR APPROACH TO THE GENERAL NORTHERN IRELAND QUESTION. WINNING NEXT YEAR. IN ADDITION, THE GOI TAKES SPECIFICALLY, WHILE URGING THE DISPUTANTS TO COME LITTLE COMFORT FROM VARIOUS LABOR PARTY TOGETHER "THROUGH A PROCESS OF RECONCILIATION BETWEEN PRONOUNCEMENTS ON NORTHERN IRELAND NOTING THAT THE TWO TRADITIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND BETWEEN WHAT LABOR SAYS WHEN THEY ARE OUT OF OFFICE BRITAIN AND IRELAND," THE PRESIDENT MADE IT CLEAR DIFFERS GREATLY FROM WHAT THEY DO WHEN IN GOVERNMENT.) THAT "WE IN THE UNITED STATES CANNOT CHART A VI. NEXT STEPS FOR DUBLIN--LOOK TO WASHINGTON COURSE FOR THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND. IF SOLUTIONS ARE TO ENDURE THEY MUST COME FROM THE PEOPLE THEMSELVES." 21. FACED WITH THESE RATHER UNPLEASANT REALITIES AND NO NEAR TERM HOPE OF MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE 25. AS TO THE SECOND AND MORE IMMEDIATE QUESTION ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE, DUBLIN SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING OF WHAT ROLE THE UNITED STATES CAN PLAY TO HELP ITS EFFORT TO GAIN US SUPPORT FOR THE INCLUSION RE-ESTABLISH A DIALOGUE BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN, OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" IN LONDON'S THINKING ON HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT HERE THE USG MIGHT BE OF ULSTER. CERTAINLY, FROM HIS FIRST DAYS IN DFFICE, SOME ASSISTANCE, BUT ONLY RPT ONLY AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME. AS FOR NOW, SEVERAL FACTORS MAKE THIS AN MESSAGE (CONTINUED) : INAUSPICIOUS TIME TO TRY TO PLAY SUCH A BRIDGING ROLE. SPECIFICALLY: THAT WAS PART OF PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY'S HOPE--AS BEST EVIDENCED BY HIS STATEMENTS AT THE TIME OF HIS VISIT TO WASHINGTON ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY AND HIS EFFORTS WITH THE CONGRESSIONAL FRIENDS OF IRELAND IN JUNE. AS ONE ASSOCIATE OF THE PRIME MINISTER TOLD EMBOFF, HOWEVER, "IN MARCH THAT DUBLIN 3815 DTG:191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023236 WAS ONE OF SEVERAL ARROWS IN THE TAOISEACH'S PRIME MINISTER'S QUIVER-TODAY ITS THE ONLY ONE LEFT." 22. SPECIFICALLY, THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKE TO SEE WASHINGTON PRESSURE LONDON--AT A MINIMUN--TO REEXAMINE THE PRIOR PROPOSALS AND THINK MORE IN TERMS OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION." EVEN BETTER IN DUBLIN'S VIEW, HOWEVER, WOULD BE US PRESSURE TO END--OR AT LEAST MODIFY-THE GUARANTEE TO NORTHERN CONF DENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 0: DUBLI 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023258 SIT577 DATE 10/21/82 TOR: 292/1441Z THE BALLOT BOX.) DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 26. AS TO WHEN SUCH A RENEWAL OF DIALOGUE IS POSSIBLE, THE DFA VIEW, WHICH WE SHARE, IS THAT IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE ASSEMBLY HAS HAD FIVE OR WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: SIX MONTHS TO FUNCTION. THUS, PERHAPS BY MARCH OR APRIL THE TIME WILL AGAIN BE RIGHT FOR A RENEWAL SIT: MCF OF DIALOGUE. WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS IN DUBLIN'S AND EOB: LONDON'S MUTUAL INTEREST TO SEE THE DIALOGUE RENEWED WHSR COMMENT: AND EXPECT THAT FORCES ALREADY AT PLAY WILL HAVE THE TWO CAPITALS TALKING TO EACH OTHER AGAIN MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: BY THEN. IF NOT, HOWEVER, WE SUSPECT THAT THE GOOD OFFICES OF THE USG MIGHT AT THAT POINT BE NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS EXTENDED--BEHIND THE SCENES AND WITH ZERO VISIBILITY--TC URGE BOTH SIDES TO AGAIN SIT DOWN MESSAGE: TOGETHER. DAILEY PRIORITY DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023258 DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921436 P 191340Z OCT 82 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9409 WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4066 AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1105 BT MFIDENTI SECTION 06 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK -- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT IN DUBLIN IS TETTERING ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE AND SOME LOCAL OBSERVERS THINK THAT A NEW GENERAL ELECTION COULD BE CALLED BY FEBRUARY OR MARCH 1983. SOME PREDICT IT COULD COME AS EARLY AS NOVEMBER 1982. EVEN THOUGH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY SURVIVED A CHALLANGE TO HIS LEADERSHIP OF THE MEETING ON OCTOBER 6 (REF A) THAT CHALLENGE ONLY INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEW ELECTIONS. -- THE BRITISH ARE COMMITTED TO THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PLAN AND UK GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS STILL ASSERT THAT THE PLAN HAS A CHANCE OF WORKING. MANY HERE IN DUBLIN DO NOT SHARE THIS VIEW BUT MOST READILY CONCEDE THAT NOTHING WILL BE SERVED BY FURTHER TALKS WITH LONDON UNTIL THE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN HELD, THE ASSEMBLY CONVENED, AND THE END RESULT OF THE PROCESS MORE APPARENT. -- DUBLIN HAS NOTHING SPECIFIC BY WAY OF ALTERNATIVES TO OFFER. THEY EXPECT THAT AFTER MESSAGE (CONTINUED) : THE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS THE VARIOUS NATIONALIST PARTIES OF NORTHERN IRELAND WILL BE EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM. DFA EXPECTS THAT THE SDLP WILL WANT TO DISCUSS SOME OF THESE IDEAS AND THE GOI WOULD BE RELUCTANT TO PROPOSE ALTERNATIVES UNTIL THE DUST SETTLES. SOME OF THE RUMORED ALTERNATIVES, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE PROPOSAL FOR AN "ALL IRELAND" ASSEMBLY BASED IN DUBLIN, COULD HEIGHTEN RATHER THAN LESSEN THE TENSIONS. -- MANY ARE CONVINCED THAT THE PERSONAL ANOMOSITIES BETWEEN MR. HAUGHEY AND MRS. THATCHER ARE NOW SO GREAT THAT--IF IT WILL EVER BE PDSSIBLE FOR THEM TO WORK IN HARMONY AGAIN--AT A MINIMUM A GOOD DEAL MORE TIME MUST ELAPSE FOR "COOLING OFF." (THOUGH GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF_ NEW IRISH ELECTIONS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PROBLEM WILL RECOLVE ITSELF AT CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM 7334 28 CONFIDENTIAL NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL INFORMATION ODECLASSIFIED WPC HAS SEEN MEMORANDUM FOR WILLIAM P. CLARK NLRR 15-30-5-3 FROM: DENNIS BLAIR BY (SDI3 NARA DATE 7/7/15 SUBJECT: Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the United States (U) As you know, the results of last week's Assembly elections in Northern Ireland were a disappointment to Jim Prior. Sinn Fein took 5 seats, the SDLP won 13, and both parties have reaffirmed their intention not to participate. Paisley will take his seats, and will work for majority rule. Prior has vowed to convene the Assembly, to treat the absentee members as if they were participating, and to attempt to establish some credibility for the Assembly. The "failure" of the elections has set rumors loose in London that Prior's days are numbered, and that Mrs. Thatcher is looking for the opportunity to let him go. How all of this will work out is anyone's guess. (C) As you know from Foreign Minister Collin's visit, the Republic of Ireland's fear is that with the Prior initiative stalled, there will be no more motion on Northern Ireland from this Thatcher government, which means at least another year of immobility. As the attached excellent cable from Dublin makes clear (hilited for skimming), the lever which Haughey will attempt to use to produce motion is the U.S. connection. We can expect Irish messages requesting us to prod the British to work together with Dublin for some "all-Ireland" solution. (C) Unfortunately, Dublin has no better ideas than London how to reach a solution that would be acceptable to both communities in Northern Ireland. Therefore, the best course for the United States, as Ambassador Dailey makes very clear in his cable, is to continue our policy of "concerned neutrality" which was laid out most clearly in the President's statement of last St. Patrick's day. (C) Tab A Cable on Irish election results CONFIDENTIAL Declassify on: OADR ONFIDENTIAL 29 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023191 EOB942 AN007534 TOR: 292/1406Z CSN: CRI162 HAD REACHED THE LOWEST LEVEL FOR TEN YEARS. THUS, WHILE THE GOI DID NOT NECESSARILY WANT THE SDLP TO DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 TAKE THE LATE AUGUST DECISION NOT TO ACCEPT SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY DUBLIN OFFICIALS ACCEPT THAT, FROM DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-00 ISEC-01 MYER-00 /001 A3 THE NATIONALIST POINT OF VIEW, THE PARTY HAD LITTLE OPTION. THERE ARE FEARS IN DUBLIN, HOWEVER, THAT A FAILURE OF THE ASSEMBLY COULD, AT BEST, LEAD TO WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: A CONTINUATION OF THE POLITICAL STERILITY OF DIRECT SIT: CKLS RULE OR, AT WORST, TO MOVES FOR NORTHERN EOB: COMMENTS: CHECKLIST IRELAND'S FULL INCORPORATION INTO THE UK. 4. AT THIS POINT, OTHER THAN THEIR INCREASINGLY DIMINISHED HOPE FOR THE INCLUSION OF AN "IRISH PRIORITY DIMENSION" IN PRIOR'S NORTHERN PLAN, THE GOI SEES DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921356 FEW OPTIONS STILL OPEN. ESSENTIALLY, THE MAIN P 191340Z OCT 82 GAMBIT FOR THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE THE TIME-HONORED FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN APPROACH OF TURNING TO THE USG FOR HELP TO PRESSURE LONDON EITHER TO THINK MORE IN TERMS OF TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9404 AN "IRISH DIMENSION" AS THE BASIS FOR A SOLUTION WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY TO THE PROBLEMS OF NORTHERN IRELAND OR EVEN BETTER IN DUBLIN'S VIEW - TO ALTER OR ELIMINATE INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4061 THE BRITISH "GUARANTEE" ON NORTHERN IRELAND. WE AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1100 BELIEVE THAT, AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME (PERHAPS BY MARCH OR APRIL), AND IF NEEDED, THE USG MIGHT PLAY A CONFISENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 QUIET BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN GETTING LONDON AND DUBLIN TALKING AGAIN. OTHERWISE, HOWEVER, PRESIDENT BELFAST BY POUCH REAGAN'S MARCH 17, 1982 STATEMENT THAT IF NORTHERN WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK IRELAND SOLUTIAHNOJT TO "ENDURE THEY MUST COME E.O. 12356: DECL: 10/15/88 FROM THE PEOPLE THEMSELVES" SHOULD REMAIN VERY TAGS: PINT, PEPR, EI, UK MUCH THE BASIS OF OUR APPROACH TO THE ULSTER SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND: THE EVOLUTION OF DUBLIN'S PROBLEM. END SUMMARY. POLICY 11. MISUNDERSTANDINGS OVER DIALOGUE REF: A) DUBLIN 3697; B) DUBLIN 3436; C) DUBLIN 3291; D) DUBLIN 1851; E) DUBLIN 1641; F) DUBLIN 1562; G) DUBLIN 1045; H) DUBLIN 892; I) 81 DUBLIN 4584 5. EVEN BEFORE THE IRISH SHIFT ON THE FALKLANDS SANCTIONS QUESTION IN MAY, 1982, LONDON-DUBLIN 1. C-ENTIRE TEXT 1. SUMMARY RELATIONS HAD COOLED PERCEPTIBLY. IN LARGE MEASURE THE DECLINE WAS STARTED BY A RIFT OVER NORTHERN IRELAND AND SIMPLY ACCELERATED BY 2. EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FREEZE IN RELATIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENCES OVER THE FALKLANDS. INDEED, NEWLY DUBLIN AND LONDON EXACERBATED THE IRISH SHIFT ELECTED PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY LITERALLY FROM ON THE FALKLANDS SANCTIONS, THE FREEZE'S REAL HIS FIRST DAY BACK IN OFFICE -- DESPITE THE FACT ORIGINS LIE IN DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE TWO COUNTRIES BT INTERPRETATION OF WHAT CONSTITUTES THE BEST APPROACH TO DEVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND. THIS, IN PART, STEMS FROM CLEARLY DIFFERING INTERPRETATIONS OF WHAT THE ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE SIGNIFIES AND WHAT AGREEMENTS HAVE BEEN REACHED AS A RESULT OF THE PROCESS. FOR DUBLIN THE DIALOGUE ITSELF IS BASED UPON A RECOGNITION BY LONDON OF AN IRISH RIGHT TO A ROLE IN THE DETERMINATION OF NORTHERN IRELAND'S FINAL STATUS. FUNDAMENTAL TO THIS PROCESS, THE IRISH BELIEVED THAT THEY HAD WON AGREEMENT THAT THERE WOULD BE FULL AND REGULAR CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON ON SUCH ISSUES AS THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PROPOSALS. FROM THE IRISH POINT OF VIEW THERE WERE INADEQUATE CONSULTATIONS OVER THE PRIOR PLAN AND WHAT THERE WERE RAISED FALSE HOPES IN DUBLIN THAT WERE DASHED BY THE FINAL PRODUCT -- A DOCUMENT THAT THE GOI BELIEVES TO BE VOID OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" AND UNACCEPTABLE TO THE NORTHERN NATIONALISTS. 3. THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT ATTEMPTED TO USE ITS INITIAL REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PROPOSALS IN MARCH 1982 AS A BARGAINING CHIP TO GET A GREATER "IRISH DIMENSION" INCLUDED. THAT EFFORT BECAME ENMESHED IN THE FALKLANDS ISSUE, HOWEVER, AND BY LATE SPRING, RELATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON CONF IDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 30 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBLI IN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023198 EOB947 AN007535 TOR: 292/1413Z CSN: EHA807 BETWEEN HAUGHEY AND THATCHER WHICH HAS MADE THE DETERIORATION IN LONDON-DUBLIN RELATIONS SOMETHING DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 NOT ONLY POLITICAL BUT QUITE PERSONAL. ACCORDING TO COGLAN, HAUGHEY IN PRIVATE BLAMES MRS. THATCHER DISTRIBUTION: ISEC-01 /001 A2 PERSONALLY AND DIRECTLY FOR HIS 1981 DEFEAT. 111. ORIGINS OF THE PRIOR PLAN - TOO MUCH RATHER WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: - THAN TOO LITTLE CONSULTATION SIT: MCF EOB: 8. RELATIONS BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN STARTED OFF SHAKILY IN THE EARLY DAYS OF GARRET FITZGERALD'S ADMINISTRATION IN JULY 1981. IN PARTICULAR, PRIORITY FITZGERALD'S ATTEMPT TO ENLIST PRESIDENT REAGAN'S DE RUFHDB #3815/02 2921404 ASSISTANCE IN PRESSURING PRIME MINISTER THATCHER TO P 191340Z OCT 82 4 ADOPT A MORE FLEXIBLE ATTITUDE OVER THE HUNGER FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN- STRIKE DID NOT, ACCORDING TO DFA OFFICIALS, "SIT WELL" WITH LONDON. NONETHELESS, THE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9405 APPOINTMENT OF JAMES PRIOR TO THE NORTHERN IRELAND WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY OFFIM IN SEPTEMBER AND HIS INITIAL OPENNESS TO DUBLIN GAVE A NEW IMPETUS TO THE PROCESS AND INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4062 CREATED A NEW OPTIMISM AT DFA. AMCONSUL BELEAST PRIORITY 1101 9. THIS NEW OPTIMISM WAS CAPPED IN NOVEMBER 1981 CONFI DENTIAL SECTION 02 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 WHEN PRIME MINISTER FITZGERALD AND PRIME MINISTER THATCHER MET IN LONDON FOR A NEW ROUND OF THE BELFAST BY POUCH DIALOGUE AND AT THE END OF A CORDIAL AND WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK SUCCESSFUL ROUND OF TALKS ISSUED A JOINT COMMUNIQUE THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN A CAMPAIGN ISSUE - DECLARED WHICH CALLED FOR THE RECONCILIATION OF THE TWO NORTHERN IRELAND HIS PRINCIPAL POLITICAL PRIORITY TRADITIONS IN IRELAND AND FOR CONTINUING EFFORT (REF H). TWO WEEKS LATER, ON MARCH 22, HE BETWEEN THE TWO GOVERNMENTS TO FIND A PEACEFUL REJECTED THE PRIOR PROPOSALS FOR DEVOLUTION IN SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS OF NORTHERN IRELAND NORTHERN IRELAND THEREBY SETTING THE GOI ON A (REF 1). ALREADY BY THEN PRIOR, WHO HAD BEEN ON SEEMINGLY INEVITABLE COLLISION COURSE WITH THE THE JOB LESS THAN TWO MONTHS, WAS PUTTING TOGETHER BRITISH (REF G. A NEW INITIATIVE ON NDRTHERN IRELAND. 10. IN MARCH OF 1982 PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY 6. THE BASIC DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE IRISH AND SUGGESTED THAT ONE OF THE REASONS HE REJECTED THE THE BRITISH AS VIEWED FROM DUBLIN -- STEMS DEVOLUTION PLAN WAS THAT IT HAD BEEN PROMULGATED FROM A FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE OVER THE NATURE OF WITHOUT CONSULTATIONS WITH DUBLIN. IN CONVERSATIONS THE UNDERSTANDINGS WORKED OUT DURING THE ANGLO-IRISH WITH THE DFA, AND GOI POLITICAL LEADERS, HOWEVER, DIALOGUE. THAT DIALOGUE STARTED IN DECEMBER 1980 EMBOFF WAS TOLD REPEATEDLY THAT PROBLEM WAS TOO WITH A MEETING IN LONDON BETWEEN PRIME MINISTER MUCH CONSULTATION -- FALSELY RAISING EXPECTATIONS -- HAUGHEY (THEN IN HIS FIRST TERM IN OFFICE) AND PRIME RATHER THAN T00 LITTLE. FROM NOVEMBER 1981 TO MINISTER THATCHER. THE IRISH VIEW THE PROCESS JANUARY 1982 PRIOR, HIS DEPUTY LORD GOWERY, OR WHICH STARTED WITH THAT FIRST MEETING AS BASED BT UPON A CLEAR ACCEPTANCE BY LONDON THAT DUBLIN WOULD HAVE A ROLE IN ANY FUTURE NORTHERN IRELAND SETTLEMENT AND THAT FUNDAMENTAL TO THAT ROLE WOULD BE ONGOING CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO GOVERNMENTS OVER PROPOSALS SUCH AS NORTHERN IRELAND SECRETARY JAMES PRIOR'S DEVOLUTION PLAN. 7. SOURCES AT THE DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DFA) ANGLO-IRISH DIVISION CONCEDE THAT THE DIALOGUE PROCESS HAD ALREADY COME CLOSE TO DERAILING IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 1981 OVER THE HUNGER STRIKE ISSUE. INDEED, MANY POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN DUBLIN SUGGEST THAT CHARLES HAUGHEY'S DEFEAT IN THE JUNE 1981 GENERAL ELECTIONS WAS PARTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HIS VERY VISIBLE INABILITY TO PERSUADE MRS. THATCHER TO BE MORE FLEXIBLE OVER THE HUNGER-STRIKE ISSUE. HAUGHEY HAD STAKED A GREAT DEAL OF POLITICAL CAPITAL UPON THE RELATIONSHIP HE HAD ESTABLISHED WITH LONDON AS PART OF THE ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE PROCESS, BUT WHEN THAT RELATIONSHIP COULD HAVE AMOUNTED TO SOMETHING IN POLITICAL TERMS HAUGHEY WAS SEEN AS BEING UNABLE TO INFLUENCE EVENTS. DENNIS COGLAN, THE IRISH TIMES POLITICAL CORRESPONDANT, TOLD AN EMBOFF THAT THIS WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE "BAD BLOOD" CONF IDENTIAL CONF IDENTIAL 31 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBLIN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023211 E0B948 AN007536 TOR: 292/1422Z CSN: CRI165 CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN SEEM TO HAVE COME TO AN END. IN DFA'S VIEW, IT WAS WHEN DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 PRIOR RAN INTO WESTMINISTER OPPOSITION TO HIS MORE INNOVATIVE ASPECTS OF HIS PLAN THAT CONSULTA- DISTRIBUTION: ISEC-01 /001 A3 TIONS BETQEEN PRIOR'S TEAM AND THOSE DEALING WITH NORTHERN IRELAND IN DUBLIN SHOULD HAVE BEEN AT THEIR HEIGHT. INSTEAD, JUST THE OPPOSITE WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: OCCURRED. PRIOR SEEMS TO HAVE "HUNKERED-DOWN" SIT: MCF AND PUSHED THROUGH WHAT HE COULD GET AT EOB: WESTMINISTER WITHOUT FURTHER REFERENCE TO THOSE HE HAD so ACTIVELY CONSULTED IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PROCESS. AS ONE GOI OFFICIAL PUT IT, "HE RAISED EXPECTATIONS, WHETTED APPETITES, AND THEN PRIORITY SNATCHED IT ALL AWAY." DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921412 IV. DUBLIN'S EARLY REJECTION OF THE PLAN--A TACTIC P 191340Z OCT 82 FM AMEMBASSY OUBLIN - WHICH FAILED. TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9406 WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY 14. IT IS, PERHAPS, THIS SENSE OF FRUSTRATION ANO DISAPPOINTMENT WHICH LED TO HAUGHEY'S EARLY INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4063 REJECTION OF THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PLAN WHEN HE AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1102 MANAGED TO FORM A GOVERNMENT IN MARCH. THAT REJECTION FROM THE OUTSET WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY PENTIAL SECTION 03 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 COORDINATED WITH THE SDLP. IT IS BY NO MEANS CLEAR, HOWEVER, THAT THIS REJECTION WAS MEANT BELFAST BY POUCH TO BE FINAL. RATHER, AS ONE FIANNA FAIL DEPUTY TOLD WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK EMBOFF, IT WAS INTENDED BY THE PRIME MINISTER SENIOR NORTHERN IRELAND OFFICE OFFICIALS DISCUSSED "AS A WARNING SHOT ACROSS THE BOW" TO JIM PRIOR POSSIBLE ASPECTS OF A DEVOLUTION PLAN WITH THE WITH THE HOPE--PERHAPS IN RETROSPECT FORLORN-- LEADERS OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC THAT ADDITIONAL ELEMENTS COULD BE ADDED TO THE AND LABOR PARTY (SDLP) AND DUBLIN OFFICIALS. DEVOLUTION PLAN. 11. THE SDLP LEADERSHIP IN TURN -- AS CUSTOMARY 15. MOST NOTABLY, THE SDLP REPRESENTATIVES, IN DISCUSSED PRIOR'S APPROACHES QUITE REGULARLY THEIR TALKS IN DUBLIN, SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN LOOKING WITH SENIOR IRISH GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION FOR DUBLIN SUPPORT TO OBTAIN SOMETHING IN THE FIGURES, INCLUDING BOTH THEN PRIME MINISTER GARRET FITZGERALD AND THEN OPPOSITION LEADER PLAN THAT WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY SATISFY CHARLES HAUGHEY. FROM THE QUESTIONS BEING ASKED THEIR NATIONALIST CONSTITUENCY IN THE NORTH THAT BY PRIOR AND HIS PEOPLE, FROM THE IDEAS THAT SOME ASPECT OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" HAD BEEN EMERGED FROM THESE DISCUSSIONS, AND THE SEEMING INCLUDED. VARIOUS PROVISIONS TO ACHIEVE THIS ARE READY ACCEPTANCE OF WHAT ONE DFA OFFICIAL MENTIONED AND CERTAINLY SOME FORM OF INSTITUTIONALIZED DESCRIBED AS SOME "TRUELY INNOVATIVE IDEAS", MOST POWER SHARING WOULD HAVE COME THE CLOSEST TO GOI OFFICIALS AND POLITICAL LEADERS BELIEVED THAT SATISFYING DUBLIN. MOST NOTABLY, HOWEVER, THE PRIOR FULLY INTENDED TO MAKE PROPOSALS THAT WOULD CONCEPT OF A PARLIAMENTARY TIER TO THE ANGLO-IRISH CONTAIN A VERY REAL "IRISH DIMENSION", POSSIBLY - PROCESS IS MOST FREQUENTLY CITED IN DUBLIN INCLUDING SOME FORM OF POWER-SHARING THOUGH AS THE FACTOR WHICH COULD HAVE MADE THE DIFFERENCE PERHAPS NOT UNDER THAT EMOTIONALLY CHARGED NAME. IN NATIONALIST ACCEPTANCE OF THE PLAN. BT 12. FROM JANUARY 1982 ONWARDS, HOWEVER, IT BECAME APPARENT TO OFFICIALS IN DUBLIN THAT PRIOR WAS BACKING AWAY FROM SOME OF THE MORE INNOVATIVE MEASURES HE AT FIRST HAD SEEMED TO BE ADVOCATING AND MOVING TOWARD WHAT ONE IRISH OFFICIAL DESCRIBED AS THE "LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR" APPROACH TO DEVOLUTION. THE REASONS FOR PRIOR'S SHIFT TO A DEVOLUTION PLAN THAT, IN THE VIEW OF MANY SENIOR GOI OFFICIALS NOW COMPLETELY IGNORES THE IRISH DIMENSION, HAVE BEEN VERY ABLY REPORTED BY BELFAST (REF C). FOR MOST HERE IN DUBLIN THE "BOTTOM LINE" IS THAT PRIOR "CHICKENED-OUT" WHEN HE SAW THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION AT WESTMINISTER TO A FULL IRISH DIMENSION BEING INCLUDED IN ANY POTENTIAL DEVOLUTION PLAN. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A GROWING CONVICTION THAT THE PRINCIPAL WESTMINISTER OPPOSTIION WAS AND CONTINUES TO BE PRIME MINISTER THATCHER HERSELF. 13. FROM JANUARY ONWARD, WHEN THE SHIFT ON THE ACTUAL CONTENT OF THE DEVOLUTION PLAN WAS OCCURRING, CONF JENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 32 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBLIN 3815 DTG:191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023222 EOB969 AN007537 TOR: 292/1430Z CSN: CR|166 THE SDLP COULD HAVE BROUGHT IT DOWN BY THEN WITHDRAWING. ONE PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTY TOLD EMBOFF DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 THAT, THOUGH HE SHARED THE SDLP'S PESSIMISM OVER THE POLITICAL VIABILITY OF THE ASSEMBLY, IT WOULD DISTRIBUTION: ISEC-01 /001 A2 HAVE BEEN BETTER FOR THE FUTURE OF THE SDLP IF THEY HAD "AT LEAST APPEARED WILLING TO TRY AND MAKE IT WORK." WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: SIT: MCF 19. IN THE EVENT, HOWEVER, THAT WAS NOT THE PATH EOB: THE SDLP ELECTED TO FOLLOW, DUBLIN, THEREFORE, NOW FACES BOTH IMMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM "UNPLEASANT REALITIES." WITH THE ASSEMBLY ELECTION LESS THAN TWO DAYS AWAY THE DFA AND THE PRIORITY POLITICAL LEVEL LEADERSHIP IN DUBLIN IS WELL AWARE DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921420 THAT THE SDLP ITSELF FACES A MAJOR CRISIS OVER P 191340Z OCT 82 THIS ELECTION. THE PARTY HAS ASKED ITS SUPPORTERS FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN FOR AN ELECTORAL MANDATE ENDORSING THEIR DECISION NOT TO TAKE THE SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY. DFA FEARS TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9407 THAT SUCH A MANDATE WILL NOT BE FORTHCOMING AND WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY THAT THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MODERATE NATIONALIST POSITION IN THE NORTH WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4064 DFA IS ALSO CONCERNED THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1103 CHANCE (ALBEIT--THEY HOPE--A SMALL ONE) THAT THE UNIONIST|PARTIES OF THE NORTH WILL--WITH THE CONFI DENTIAL SECTION 04 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 POSSIBILITY THAT MOST NATIONALIST VOTERS WILL SIMPLY STAY AWAY FROM THE POLLS--BE ABLE IN THEIR OWN BELFAST BY POUCH RIGHT TO GARNER THE 70 PERCENT OF THE SEATS NEEDED WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK UNDER THE PRIOR PLAN TO VOTE FOR THE DEVOLUTION TO THE ASSEMBLY OF CERTAIN REAL POWERS MAKING IT 16. SUCH A TIER WOULD HAVE CREATED A COMMITTEE INDEEO A NEW STORMONT. (NOT CALLED A COUNCIL OF IRELAND BECAUSE THAT TOO IS AN EMOTIONALLY CHARGED TERM) MADE UP OF MEMBERS 20. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS DUBLIN'S FROM THE NEW NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY, THE IRISH FEAR THAT FOR NOW THE PRIOR INITIATIVE, WHICH THEY PARLIAMENT, AND PRESUMABLY THE WESTMINISTER BELIEVED WAS DOOMED FROM THE BEGINNING, WILL LEAVE PARLIAMENT AS WELL. REACTING TO JAMES PRIOR'S THE BRITISH IN THE POSITION OF AT LEAST SEEMING RECENT CHARACTERIZATION OF SUCH A TIER AS MERELY A TO HAVE DONE SOMETHING TO BRING ABOUT PEACEFUL "TALK SHOP," A DFA OFFICIAL OBSERVED THAT "IT CHANGE IN NORTHERN IRELAND. THIS, IN TURN, WILL WOULDN'T MATTER IF AT FIRST IT WAS ONLY A TALK THEREBY LESSEN ANY PRESSURE THAT MIGHT BE APPLIED SHOP BECAUSE EVEN "TALKING" BETWEEN PARLIAMENTARIANS TO MRS. THATCHER'S GOVERNMENT UNTIL THE BRITISH FROM DUBLIN AND BELFAST WOULD REPRESENT MORE GENERAL ELECTION WHICH MOST NOW EXPECT NEXT AUTUMN. PROGRESS THAN WE HAVE MADE IN THE FULL 60 YEARS IN THE LONG TERM, IF THOSE ELECTIONS ARE CLOSE--AS SINCE THE TREATY." SOME EXPECT-THERE IS REAL FEAR IN DUBLIN THAT THE 12 OR 13 SEATS WHICH THE UNIONISTS WILL LIKELY 17. IN THE EVENT, HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE OF DUBLIN HAVE IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT WILL EXERT FAR MORE REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PLAN AS A BARGAINING PLOY INFLUENCE THAN NOW--MUCH AS THEY DID IN THE WANING WITH LONDON WAS NEVER REALLY PUT TO THE TEST. DAYS OF THE CALLAGHAN GOVERNMENT IN THE LATE 70'S. WITHIN A FEW WEEKS LONDON WAS ENMESHED IN THE IF MRS. THATCHER WINS OUTRIGHT, DFA IS EVEN MORE FALKLANDS CRISIS AND DUBLIN, FOR MANY REASONS, BT INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO PIQUE OVER THE DEVOLUTION PLAN (SEE REF A FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH LED TO DUBLIN'S BREAK) HAD BROKEN WITH THE EC OVER THE ARGENTINE SANCTIONS AND RELATIONS BETWEEN DUBLIN AND LONDON HAD REACHED THE "DEEP-FREEZE" LEVEL. NO "THAW" IN RELATIONSHIPS HAS OCCURRED SINCE THAT POINT. 18. WHILE IT IS CLEAR THAT PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AND THE SDLP WERE COORDINATING CLOSELY AT THE TIME OF HIS INITIAL REJECTION OF THE PRIOR PLAN, IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN--AND INDEED STOUTLY DENIED IN DUBLIN--THAT THE GOI WAS BEHIND THE SDLP'S OECISION TO CONTEST THE ASSEMBLY ELECTION BUT NOT TAKE SEATS IN THE ASSEMBLY. DFA OFFICIALS MAINTAIN THAT-WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE SDLP'S REASONS FOR THE DECISION--IRISH OFFICIALS, INCLUDING PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, WOULD HAVE BEEN HAPPIER IF THE SDLP HAD ENTERED THE ASSEMBLY. IF THE SDLP'S WORST FEARS HAD BEEN REALIZED AND THE ASSEMBLY BEGAN TO TAKE SHAPE AS WHAT ONE COMMENTATOR DESCRIBED AS "STORMONT REDIVIVUS," CONF IDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 33 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBL 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023236 EOB970 AN007538 TOR: 292/1437Z CSN: CR1168 TO A CHANGE IN THE STATUS OF NORTHERN IRELAND so LONG AS THAT CHANGE CAME ABOUT BY THE WILL OF THE DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 MAJORITY." DISTRIBUTION: ISEC-01 /001 A2 23. FOREIGN MINISTER COLLINS, BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE FOR THE US, PUBLICALLY STATED THAT NORTHERN IRELAND WOULD BE THE CENTRAL THEME OF HIS VISIT WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: TO THE US (REF B). REPORTS ON THAT VISIT INDICATE SIT: MCF THAT HE LOOKED FOR AS MUCH SUPPORT AS HE COULD EOB: MUSTER BOTH FROM THE LEGISLATIVE AND THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH IN GENERATING THE KIND OF PRESSURE DUBLIN BELIEVES IS NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE PEACEFUL CHANGE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USED THE OCCASION OF PRIORITY THE VISIT TO GENERATE AS MUCH MEDIA ATTENTION AS DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921428 POSSIBLE TO THIS END. P 191340Z OCT 82 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 24. COMMENT TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9408 A RENEWED ATTEMPT BY THE GOI TO ENLIST AMERICAN WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY SUPPORT FOR HELPING TO ACHIEVE CHANGES IN NORTHERN IRELAND BY BRINGING PRESSURE TO BEAR ON LONDON INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4065 NEEDS TO BE APPROACHED AT TWO DIFFERENT LEVELS. AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1104 FIRST, ON THE QUESTION OF OVER-ALL US POLICY, WE BELIEVE THAT PRESIDENT REAGAN'S MARCH 17, 1982 CONFISENTIAL SECTION 05 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 STATEMENT STILL OFFERS THE BEST AND WISEST AMERICAN APPROACH TO THE GENERAL NORTHERN IRELAND QUESTION. BELFAST BY POUCH SPECIFICALLY, WHILE URGING THE DISPUTANTS TO COME WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK TOGETHER "THROUGH A PROCESS OF RECONCILIATION BETWEEN CONCERNED THAT, GIVEN HER OWN INCLINATIONS, SHE THE TWO TRADITIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND BETWEEN WILL SIMPLY DROP ALL PRETENSE AT TRYING TO FORM BRITAIN AND IRELAND," THE PRESIDENT MADE IT CLEAR A DEVOLVED GOVERNMENT IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THAT "WE IN THE UNITED STATES CANNOT CHART A MOVE FOR FULL INTEGRATION WITH THE UK. (DFA COURSE FOR THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND. IF DOES NOT REALLY ENTERTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LABOR SOLUTIONS ARE TO ENDURE THEY MUST COME FROM THE WINNING NEXT YEAR. IN ADDITION, THE GOI TAKES PEOPLE THEMSELVES." LITTLE COMFORT FROM VARIOUS LABOR PARTY PRONOUNCEMENTS ON NORTHERN IRELAND NOTING THAT 25. AS TO THE SECOND AND MORE IMMEDIATE QUESTION WHAT LABOR SAYS WHEN THEY ARE OUT OF OFFICE DIFFERS GREATLY FROM WHAT THEY DO WHEN IN GOVERNMENT.) OF WHAT ROLE THE UNITED STATES CAN PLAY TO HELP VI. NEXT STEPS FOR DUBLIN--LOOK TO WASHINGTON RE-ESTABLISH A DIALOGUE BETWEEN LONDON AND DUBLIN, HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT HERE THE USG MIGHT BE OF SOME ASSISTANCE, BUT ONLY RPT ONLY AT THE APPROPRIATE 21. FACED WITH THESE RATHER UNPLEASANT REALITIES TIME. AS FOR NOW, SEVERAL FACTORS MAKE THIS AN AND NO NEAR TERM HOPE OF MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE INAUSPICIOUS TIME TO TRY TO PLAY SUCH A BRIDGING ANGLO-IRISH DIALOGUE, DUBLIN SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING ROLE. SPECIFICALLY: ITS EFFORT TO GAIN US SUPPORT FOR THE INCLUSION BT OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION" IN LONDON'S THINKING ON ULSTER. CERTAINLY, FROM HIS FIRST DAYS IN OFFICE, THAT WAS PART OF PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY'S HOPE--AS BEST EVIDENCED BY HIS STATEMENTS AT THE TIME OF HIS VISIT TO WASHINGTON ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY AND HIS EFFORTS WITH THE CONGRESSIONAL FRIENDS OF IRELAND IN JUNE. AS ONE ASSOCIATE OF THE PRIME MINISTER TOLD EMBOFF, HOWEVER, "IN MARCH THAT WAS ONE OF SEVERAL ARROWS IN THE TAOISEACH'S (PRIME MINISTER'S) QUIVER--TODAY ITS THE ONLY ONE LEFT." 22. SPECIFICALLY, THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKE TO SEE WASHINGTON PRESSURE LONDON--AT A MINIMUN--TO REEXAMINE THE PRIOR PROPOSALS AND THINK MORE IN TERMS OF AN "IRISH DIMENSION." EVEN BETTER IN DUBLIN'S VIEW, HOWEVER, WOULD BE US PRESSURE TO END--OR AT LEAST MODIFY--THE GUARANTEE TO NORTHERN UNIONISTS THAT NORTHERN IRELAND WILL REMAIN A PART OF THE UK SO LONG AS THE MAJORITY OF ITS PEOPLE WISH IT TO BE. DUBLIN, AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO ENDING THE GUARANTEE, WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT PHRASED IN A MORE POSITIVE FASHION THAT WOULD IMPLY SOME ACCEPTANCE FROM LONDON OF AN EVENTUAL REALIGNMENT IN THIS ISLAND--PERHAPS TO THE EFFECT THAT "HER MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT OBJECT CONF DENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 34 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MESSAGE CENTER PAGE 01 DUBL IN 3815 DTG: 191340Z OCT 82 PSN: 023258 EDB971 AN007539 TOR: 292/1441Z CSN: CRI169 OF DIALOGUE. WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS IN DUBLIN'S AND LONDON'S MUTUAL INTEREST TO SEE THE DIALOGUE RENEWED DISTRIBUTION: BLAR-01 MYER-01 /002 A2 AND EXPECT THAT FORCES ALREADY AT PLAY WILL HAVE THE TWO CAPITALS TALKING TO EACH OTHER AGAIN DISTRIBUTION: ISEC-01 /001 A2 BY THEN. IF NOT, HOWEVER, WE SUSPECT THAT THE GOOD OFFICES OF THE USG MIGHT AT THAT POINT BE EXTENDED--BEHIND THE SCENES AND WITH ZERO WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: VISIBILITY--TO URGE BOTH SIDES TO AGAIN SIT DOWN SIT: MCF TOGETHER. DAILEY EOB: BT PRIORITY DE RUFHDBA #3815 2921436 P 191340Z OCT 82 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9409 WHITEHOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4066 AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 1105 CONFIDENT AL SECTION 06 OF 06 DUBLIN 03815 BELFAST BY POUCH WHITE HOUSE FOR JUDGE CLARK -- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT IN DUBLIN IS TETTERING ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE AND SOME LOCAL OBSERVERS THINK THAT A NEW GENERAL ELECTION COULD BE CALLED BY FEBRUARY OR MARCH 1983. SOME PREDICT IT COULD COME AS EARLY AS NOVEMBER 1982. EVEN THOUGH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY SURVIVED A CHALLANGE TO HIS LEADERSHIP OFTHE MEETING ON OCTOBER 6 (REF A) THAT CHALLENGE ONLY INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEW ELECTIONS. -- THE BRITISH ARE COMMITTED TO THE PRIOR DEVOLUTION PLAN AND UK GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS STILL ASSERT THAT THE PLAN HAS A CHANCE OF WORKING. MANY HERE IN DUBLIN DO NOT SHARE THIS VIEW BUT MOST READILY CONCEDE THAT NOTHING WILL BE SERVED BY FURTHER TALKS WITH LONDON UNTIL THE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN HELD, THE ASSEMBLY CONVENED, AND THE END RESULT OF THE PROCESS MORE APPARENT. -- DUBLIN HAS NOTHING SPECIFIC BY WAY OF ALTERNATIVES TO OFFER. THEY EXPECT THAT AFTER THE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS THE VARIOUS NATIONALIST PARTIES OF NORTHERN IRELAND WILL BE EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM. DFA EXPECTS THAT THE SDLP WILL WANT TO DISCUSS SOME OF THESE IDEAS AND THE GO! WOULD BE RELUCTANT TO PROPOSE ALTERNATIVES UNTIL THE DUST SETTLES. SOME OF THE RUMORED ALTERNATIVES, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE PROPOSAL FOR AN "ALL IRELAND" ASSEMBLY BASED IN DUBLIN, COULD HEIGHTEN RATHER THAN LESSEN THE TENSIONS. -- MANY ARE CONVINCED THAT THE PERSONAL ANOMOSITIES BETWEEN MR. HAUGHEY AND MRS. THATCHER ARE NOW so GREAT THAT--IF IT WILL EVER BE POSSIBLE FDR THEM TO WORK IN HARMONY AGAIN--AT A MINIMUM A GOOD DEAL MORE TIME MUST ELAPSE FOR "COOLING OFF." (THOUGH GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF NEW IRISH ELECTIONS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PROBLEM WILL RESOLVE ITSELF AT THE BALLOT BOX.) 26. AS TO WHEN SUCH A RENEWAL OF DIALOGUE IS POSSIBLE, THE DFA VIEW, WHICH WE SHARE, IS THAT IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE ASSEMBLY HAS HAD FIVE OR SIX MONTHS TO FUNCTION. THUS, PERHAPS BY MARCH OR APRIL THE TIME WILL AGAIN BE RIGHT FOR A RENEWAL CONF IDENTIAL 398 National Security Council The White House Package # 7334 "82 OCT 26 P1:07 P1 NRF SEQUENCE TO ACTION John Poindexter 1 HAS R SEEN I 2 Bud McFarlane m 3 Jacque Hill 4 Co g Judge Clark 3 John Poindexter Staff Secretary Sit Room I-Information A-Action R-Retain D-Dispatch N-No further Action DISTRIBUTION cc: VP Meese Baker Deaver Other COMMENTS 35 NSC/S PROFILE CONFIDENTIAL ID 8207334 NCLASSIFIED JPON REMOVAL OF CLASSIFIED FNCLOSUE RECEIVED 26 OCT 82 15 TO CLARK FROM BLAIR 7/7/15/2003 DOCDATE 26 OCT 82 KEYWORDS: IRELAND PRIOR, JIM FEIN, SINN SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ACTION: FOR INFORMATION DUE: STATUS IX FILES FOR ACTION FOR CONCURRENCE FOR INFO CLARK COMMENTS REF# LOG NSCIFID (H/ ) ACTION OFFICER (S) ASSIGNED ACTION REQUIRED DUE COPIES TO NOV 1 7 1982 clark noted DB- DISPATCH W/ATTCH FILE DA DA (d; (C) CONE IDENTIAL WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM 36 DECLASSIFIED PAGE 01 SECSTATE WASHDC 11 6194 DTG:011610Z NOV 82 PSN: 043166 SIT803 DATE 11/01/82 TOR: 305/1652Z NLRR 748-15-30-6-2 DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 BY LCD3 NARA DATE 7/7/15 WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: SECSTATE WASHDC 11 6194 DTG:011610Z NOV 82 PSN: C43166 SIT: EOB: WHOR COMMENT: MECCAGE ANNOTATIONS: NC MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS MESSAGE: IMMEDIATE DE RUEHO #6194 3051652 0 0116102 NOV 82 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMEASS DUBLIN IMMEDIATE 2428 INFO DEMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 3592 BT CONFIDENTIAL LIMITED OFFICIAL USE STATE 306194 E.O. 10356: DECL: 10/28/88 TAGS: 1S, LE, E1, FORG, MOPS, PSCD CLEJECT: LETTER CF CONDOLENCE ON DEATH OF THREE IRISH UNIFIL COLDIERS 1. ENTIRE TEXT) 2. EMB#CSY 10 REQUESTED 10 DELIVER THE FOLLOWING LETTER FROM THE CECRETARY TO FOREIGN MINISTER COLLINS. BEGIN TEXT. DEAR MR. FOREIGN MINISTER: i WAS CADDENED TO LEARN OF THE DEATH OF THREE COLDIERS OF THE RISH EATTALION OF UNIFIL IN SOUTHERN-LEBANON. KNOW THAT THEY ARE NOT THE FIRST IRISH TROOPS OF UNIFIL WHO HAVE GIVEN THEIR LIVES IN THE SERVICE OF PEACE IN LEE-NON. THE SACRIFICE OF THESE BRAVE MEN IS ANOTHER REMINDER OF HOW MUCH IRELAND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MESSAGE (CONTINUED): THIS IMPORTANT INTERNATIONAL EFFORT. MAY EATEND TO YOUR GOVERNMENT AND TO THE FAMILIES OF THE DECEASED MY DEEPEST AND MOST HEARTFELT CYMPATHY. SINCERELY YOURS, GEORGE P. CHULTZ END TEXT. SHULTZ CONF IDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 37 WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM PAGE 01 DUBLIN 4738 4136 DTG:231400Z DEC 82 PSN: 049538 SIT775 DATE 12/27/82 TOR: 357/1619Z CHURCH LEADERS, INCLUDING THE POPE AND IRELAND'S HIERARCHY, HAVE DENOUNCED IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS DISTRIBUTION: REPT /001 VIOLENCE AND THE GUNMEN. THESE CHURCH LEADERS HAVE CALLED FOR A HALT TO THE SENSELESS VIOLENCE WHICH EXACERBATES THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC WHTS ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION: PROBLEMS IN THE NORTH. SURELY, THOSE WHO SUPPPOT SUCH VIOLENCE WITH FUNDS HAVE A HEAVY BURDEN OF SIT: WPC MCF WHLR JP VP SIT EOB BLAR CONSCIENCE TO BEAR. E OB: /COMMASSIST/ IN VIEW OF THE ABOVE, I THINK YOUR DECISION TO ATTEND WHSR COMMENT: FYICKLISTST-- T DECLASSIFIED THE NORAID DINNER IS MOST UNFORTUNATE. I HOPE YOU WILL RECONSIDER. END QUOTE. DAILEY MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS: NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS NLRR 748-15-30-7-1 MESSAGE: BY COB NARA DATE 7/7/15 PRIORITY DUBL IN 4738 4136 DTG:231400Z DEC 82 PSN: 049538 DE RUFHDB #4738 3571401 P 231400Z DEC 82 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9713 INFO AMCONSUL BELFAST 1160 AMEMBASSY LONDON 4161 BT CONFIDENTIAL LIMITED OFFICIAL USE DUBLIN 04738 PASS NSC FOR JUDGE CLARK E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PINT, US, EI SUBJECT: ANCIENT ORDER OF HIBERNIANS TO ATTEND FUND-RAISING DINNER REF: 4729 1. REFTEL REPORTED THAT PRESIDENT ROCHE OF ANCIENT ORDER OF HIBERNIANS (AOH) PLANS ATTEND NORAID ANNUAL FUND-RAISING DINNER. 2. IF NO OBJECTIONS PERCEIVED, AMBASSADOR WOULD LIKE FOLLOWING TRANSMITTED TO MR ROCHE: BEGIN QUOTE. DEAR MR ROCHE: THE IRISH PRESS RECENTLY REPORTED YOU HAVE AGREED TO BE GUEST DF HONOR AT NORAID'S ANNUAL DINNER. I REGRET THIS VERY MUCH. LENDING YOUR PRESENCE AS PRESIDENT OF THE ANCIENT ORDER OF HIBERNIANS (AOH) TO THIS DINNER DOES A DISSERVICE TO BOTH THE CAUSE OF SECURING A POLITICAL SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS IN MESSAGE (CONTINUED): NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE IMAGE OF THE AOH. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS LONG BEEN CONCERNED THAT FUNDS CHANNELED THROUGH NORAID GO TO SUPPORT TERRORISM. AS YOU KNOW, THE USG HAS TAKEN LEGAL STEPS TO HAVE NORAID REGISTERED AS A FOREIGN LOBBY. AT A RECENT ARMS TRIAL IN NEW YORK, NORAID OFFICIALS STATED THAT NORAID WAS ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN ARMS TRANSFERS TO NORTHERN IRELAND. THE GOVERNMENT OF IRELAND CONSIDERS NORAID A PRINCIPLE CHANNEL FOR ILLEGAL ARMS PURCHASES WHICH ARE SENT TO NORTHERN IRELAND WHERE THEY CONTRIBUTE TO THE SICKENING SPIRAL OF ARMED VIOLENCE AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION. THESE SAME ARMS MAY CONVULSE THE REPUBLIC TOMORROW. PRESIDENTS REAGAN AND CARTER AND U.S. CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS HAVE DENOUNCED VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THOSE WHO SUPPORT IT. PANE NSC/S PROFILE CONFINENTIAL UPON REMOVA. ID 8301604 38 OF CLASSIFIED FNCLOSURE(S) RECEIVED 10 MAR 83 19 TO BREMER FROM WHEELER DOCDATE 10 MAR 83 BLAIR 10 MAR 83 KEYWORDS: IRELAND AP SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR TALKING POINTS FOR PRES ATTENDANCE AT THE IRISH EMBASSY ON MAR 17 ACTION: WHEELER SGD MEMO TO BREMER DUE: 10 MAR 83 STATUS D FILES FOR ACTION FOR CONCURRENCE FOR INFO STATE FORTIER TYSON WHEELER COMMENTS ** DISPATCHED VIA LDX. REF# LOG NSCIFID (M/) ACTION OFFICER (S) ASSIGNED ACTION REQUIRED DUE COPIES TO 2 3/12 Reed s/s 8307179 Blan S 3/12 Prepare Mend to class DF,CT C please 3/17 close out puDC Blain 3/12/83 NAR DISPATCH. W/ATTCH FILE is ic) DECLASSIFIED 1604 S/S 8307179 NLRR 748-15-30-8-0 United States Department of State 39 BY 1013 NARA DATE 7/7/15 Washington, D.C. 20520 CONFIDENTIAL March 11, 33 N 1983 A12 14 SIT TON 100M MEMORANDUM FOR MR. WILLIAM P. CLARK THE WHITE HOUSE Subject: President's Reception at the Irish Embassy, March 17 The Department submits herewith a draft toast for the President to use at the March 17 reception at the Irish Embassy and talking points for use in his telephone conversation with Irish Prime Minister Garret FitzGerald. In the draft toast, the President again condemns those who want to use violence to resolve the problems of Northern Ireland. In the draft talking points with FitzGerald, the President reminds the Prime Minister of his continuing interest in the problem of Northern Ireland and reaffirms his support for FitzGerald's efforts to achieve reconciliation. Attachments: 1. Draft Presidential Toast 2. Telephone Talking Points CONFIDENTIAL DECL OADR 40 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506 1604 March 10, 1983 VIA LDX MEMORANDUM FOR L. PAUL BREMER III Executive Secretary Department of State SUBJECT: President's Reception at the Irish Embassy, March 17 At the invitation of the Irish Ambassador, the President will be attending an afternoon reception at the Irish Embassy on March 17. He will be presented a bowl of shamrocks and will receive a phone call from Prime Minister FitzGerald. The State Department is requested to provide by close-of-business, Friday, March 11 a briefing paper for the reception. A draft toast and draft talking points for the telephone conversation. Michael O. Wheeler Staff Secretary 1604 41 MEMORANDUM ACTION NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL March 10, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL O. WHEELER FROM: DENNIS B BLAIR SUBJECT: President's Reception at Irish Embassy, March 17 Attached for your signature is a memo to State requesting materials for the President's visit to the Irish Embassy next Thursday. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memo at Tab I. Approve Disapprove Tab I Memo to Bremer NSC/S PROFILE UNCLASSIFIED ID 8301598 RECEIVED 10 MAR 83 12 TO CLARK FROM BLAIR DOCDATE 10 MAR 83 42 TYSON 10 MAR 83 KEYWORDS: IRELAND AP SUBJECT: PRES LUNCHEON AT IRISH EMBASSY ON MAR 17 ACTION: FOR SIGNATURE DUE: 12 MAR 83 STATUS X FILES FOR ACTION FOR CONCURRENCE FOR INFO CLARK COMMENTS REF# LOG 8301142 8301580 NSCIFID (C/) ACTION OFFICER (S) ASSIGNED ACTION REQUIRED DUE COPIES TO C 3/11 Clark Agd memo DB,CT DISPATCH 3/11 3/11 cen cen W/ATTCH FILE PA Clean (C). 43 MEMORANDI \1 THE WHITE HOUSE 1598 WASHINGTON March 11, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL DEAVER FROM: WILLIAM P. CLARK SUBJECT: President's Activities on St. Patrick's Day, March 17 Following lunch on Capitol Hill the President will go to the Irish Embassy for a reception, accompanied by Speaker O'Neill. At the embassy reception he will receive a bowl of shamrocks, propose a toast, and will talk by telephone with Prime Minister FitzGerald. My staff is working with the State Department and speechwriters to prepare the papers and statements for the President's use. 1598 Re-do 44 MEMORANDUM NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION March 10, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR WILLIAM P. CLARK THROUGH: CHARLES P. TYSON FROM: DENNIS & BLAIR SUBJECT: President's Reception at the Irish Embassy Attached for your signature is a memo to Mike Deaver outlining the events in which the President will participate at the Irish Embassy on St. Patrick's Day. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memo to Deaver at Tab I. Approve Disapprove Tab I Memo to Deaver National Security Council 574 The White House 1825P Package # 1598 Redo MAR 1 0 1983 SEQUENCE TO HAS SEEN ACTION John Poindexter b Bud McFarlane Jacque Hill 3 X he Judge Clark 4 A John Poindexter Staff Secretary Sit Room I-Information A-Action R-Retain D-Dispatch N-No further Action DISTRIBUTION cc: VP Meese Baker Deaver Other COMMENTS 46 573 National Security Council The White House Package # 1598 1242 MAR 1 0 1983 SEQUENCE TO ACTION John Poindexter / HAS g SEEN A Bud McFarlane 2 Jacque Hill 3 Judge Clark 4 A John Poindexter Staff Secretary Sit Room I-Information A-Action R Retain D-Dispatch N-No further Action DISTRIBUTION cc: VP Meese Baker Deaver Other COMMENTS CPT To Ravid to and Virsion zhiobe MW 1598 47 MEMORANDUM of NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION March 10, 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR WILLIAM P. CLARK THROUGH: CHARLES P. TYSON CNT FROM: DENNIS C. BLAIR SUBJECT: President's Luncheon at the Irish Embassy The plans for the President's St. Patrick's Day luncheon at the Irish Embassy has just now fallen into place. They include lunch, a toast and a phone call with Prime Minister FitzGerald in Dublin. Attached for your signature is a memo to Deaver informing him of the events to take place during the lunch. RECOMMENDATION That you sign the memo to Deaver at Tab I. Approve Disapprove Tab I Memo to Deaver 48 MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE 1598 WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL DEAVER FROM: WILLIAM P. CLARK SUBJECT: President's Luncheon at Irish Embassy During the luncheon at the Irish Embassy on St. Patrick's Day, March 17, the President will make a toast and receive a phone call from Prime Minister FitzGerald in Dublin. My staff will provide necessary papers for the President and will work with speechwriters to write the toast.